The Tampa Bay Lightning are here in the NHL prospect pool overview series.
Tony Ferrari digs into the Bolts’ strengths and weaknesses, latest draft class, positional depth chart, next player in line for an NHL opportunity and more. A player who no longer holds rookie eligibility in the NHL is considered graduated and no longer a prospect for these exercises, with few exceptions.
Initial Thoughts
Let’s get this out of the way right off the hop. The Tampa Bay Lightning barely have a prospect pool. The quality of the top talent in the pipeline is middling at best, and the depth is unfortunately as thin as any prospect pool in the NHL. They have always been a team that has leveraged draft picks and prospects to improve their current NHL roster, so the depleted pipeline isn’t shocking. They’ve also been a team that is good at developing role players from mid-lower lineup roles. Their pipeline has a few players who could fill those roles.
One of the biggest hits to the prospect pool wasn’t the graduation of a prospect; it was the requested trade of Hobey Baker winner, Isaac Howard. There seemed to be some growing tension between the team and the player, which led to a fractured relationship. Howard was eventually traded to the Edmonton Oilers for Sam O’Reilly. While it may be a bit of a step down, the Lightning did well to get something for a player that would have just waited it out and allowed their rights to expire.
O’Reilly is a two-way forward who brings a blend of playmaking and a physical edge. He gets involved defensively on every shift, using his strength to knock attackers off the puck and win small area battles. He is a play connector with the puck on his stick, looking to advance play like a game of chess. There isn’t as much flash or flair in his game, but O’Reilly looks like a solid bet to be a bottom-six center. He may not have the offensive upside and dynamism that exists on some level in Howard’s game, but he could be a building block for the Lightning’s depth.
One of the most interesting players in the pipeline, Dylan Duke, could be exactly the kind of depth player that Tampa loves to develop. He understands the game so well and plays with an effort level that makes up for a fairly average toolset. Duke isn’t afraid to get to the net or go to the dirty areas to advance play and create offense from hard spots. His dawg mentality is exactly what Tampa loves in their bottom six.
Drafted in the early second round in 2023, Ethan Gauthier was a player that the Lightning had hoped could be a middle-six scorer at some point. He does a good job of facilitating play in all three zones, making good decisions, and playing a simple game. He is a good finisher from both in tight and from the slot, allowing him to be a shooter from all over the zone. Making the jump to the AHL this season, Gauthier is going to need to make sure he can keep up with the pace of the game at the pro level.
In an interesting turn of events, Maxim Groshev transitioned from playing forward to defense last season. It was an adjustment, and there were plenty of ups and downs. It begs the question of whether he has a realistic shot at an NHL future, as switching positions at 23 is usually not a good sign. If he can make it to the NHL, he could be a great story.
The Lightning also have a few big defenders in Roman Schmidt and Jan Golicic, who are shutdown blueliners, relying on their physicality and length to kill plays. They both have concerns with the puck on their stick, which limits their upside, but they have the potential to be good depth pieces.
U-23 Players Likely To Be On NHL Roster This Season
Conor Geekie (RW/C)
2025 NHL Draft Class
Round 2, 56 overall - Ethan Czata, C, Niagara (OHL)
Round 4, 108 overall - Benjamin Rautiainen, C, Tappara (Finland)
Round 4, 127 overall - Aiden Foster, C, Prince George (WHL)
Round 5, 151 overall - Everett Baldwin, D, St. George's School (R.I. H.S.)
Round 7, 193 overall - Caleb Heil, G, Madison (USHL)
Round 7, 206 overall - Roman Luttsev, C, Yaroslavl Loko Jr. (Rus)
Round 7, 212 overall - Grant Spada, D, Guelph (OHL)
Round 7, 215 overall - Marco Mignosa, RW, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
The Lightning came away with eight new prospects from the 2025 draft, but it wasn’t a game-changing draft by any means. With just one pick inside the top 100, Ethan Czata at 56th overall, there are some interesting swings but no surefire prospects.
Czata is a positional center who plays a simple, effective game that could translate to a bottom-six piece. There isn’t much flash in his game, but he works hard and plays with an edge. He is solid defensively, hunting down puck carriers and consistently getting in on them physically. Czata will need to get a bit quicker as a skater and play at a higher pace as well, but he has the tools to be a meat-and-potatoes kind of depth forward.
In the fourth round, Tampa chose Benjamin Rautiainen, an overage winger who put up 33 points in 50 games at the Liiga level. The 20-year-old forward has a shiftiness to his game, showcasing some nice skill and passing ability. He doesn’t have much depth to his game beyond some nice tools in the offensive zone, which means he will need to work on rounding things out defensively so that he has a shot at NHL games. With a smaller runway, it’s going to be tough.
With their final pick inside the top 150, Tampa chose Aiden Foster. It’s an interesting pick because the upside is low and his offensive tools just don’t really reach the level of NHL projection, but he brings a heavy-hitting game. Foster can throw some big hits and recover the puck, but struggles once he gets it. If he keeps it simple, he could be a solid fourth-line piece.
Tampa took a chance on a high school defender in Everett Baldwin. A dynamic skater who was always beating opposing high school teams with his mobility and skill. He has a lot of work to do in rounding out his defensive game and playing a more mature on-puck game, but there is a very intriguing raw toolset to work with when taking a long-term view of what Baldwin could be.
With their first of four picks in the final round of the draft, Tampa added 19-year-old netminder Caleb Heil. He’s been a solid USHL goalie for a couple of years now, but he certainly hasn’t been a guy who is regularly stealing games. With decent size and good athletic tools, it’s not a bad swing for a team that needs some goalies in the pipeline.
The Lightning kept up the theme of drafting overager players by taking Roman Luttsev in the seventh round. He’s a heavy shooter and a physical center who put up some points in the Russian junior ranks this year, but he is going to need to commit to playing a more well-rounded game, or he’s destined to play AHL or KHL hockey. He’s a low upside swing on a depth checking line player.
At 6-foot-5, Grant Spada is one of the more promising picks that the Lightning made. His defensive game is physical but he is quick to make decisions away from the puck and close down on opponents. He’s a simple puck handler who almost always defers the puck to a teammate, but he is a capable defensive presence.
Capping off the 2025 class with another 20-year-old, Tampa took Marco Mignosa in the seventh round. He put up 85 points in the OHL last year, taking advantage of his physical maturity and experience in the league. He’s not really a player who I thought would be drafted, but the Lightning may look at this as a way to gain a player’s rights when they wanted to sign him as an undrafted free agent anyway. Mignosa has some good two-way habits, but there is a big gap between his play and even an AHL level of play.
Strengths
The reality of the situation with the Lightning’s pipeline is that they don’t have a strength. There isn’t even really a top prospect after they traded Howard to the Oilers. So while Tampa Bay doesn’t have an area of strength positionally in their prospect system, what they do have is a proven track record of development. Even if there haven’t been many stars recently, they have produced some solid NHLers from players who were almost afterthoughts in the system. They have developed a strong culture in Syracuse on the AHL club, and that’s helped them at least patch some roster holes in recent years. This may not be the most encouraging strength, but it’s an important element to a pipeline.
Weaknesses
In what might be the worst prospect pool in hockey, the weaknesses are plenty. No prospect looks like a surefire NHLer in the system, and there isn’t really an area with plentiful depth. The weakness in Tampa’s pipeline is the pipeline as a whole. This is becoming more and more of a concern as the back-to-back Stanley Cups are becoming further and further away. The Lightning have stayed elite or close to it since their Cup runs, and bringing in Geekie last summer was big in terms of adding quality youth to the lineup, but they may need to find ways to add more young depth via trade because the pipeline isn’t going to provide them with a high-end impact player.
Hidden Gem: Jack Finley, C/W
Tampa has always found players who fit into various roles in their lineup, and Finley could be the next bottom-six forward with size and defensive intelligence. He had a solid year in the AHL, showing a bit more offensively while still maintaining his sound two-way play. At 6-foot-6, Finley brings length and size to the lineup that allow him to engulf opposing attackers. There isn’t a clear spot on the NHL roster right now, but if injuries arise and Tampa wants a safe, defensive presence at the bottom of the lineup, the 22-year-old Finley could be the call-up.
Next Man Up: Dylan Duke, LW
The Lightning lineup is loaded with NHL vets, and it won’t be easy for anyone to break in. Geekie even had some ups and downs last year, and he was a high-end prospect. This year, if there is any player who might be able to make the jump, it’s Dylan Duke. The former Michigan Wolverine was stellar in his rookie AHL season, putting up 20 goals and 40 points in 62 games and earning a cup of coffee in the NHL. Duke is a player who has always made a bigger impact than his physical tools would suggest. His effort level is off the charts, and he is a savvy player who finds small advantages through little push-offs in front of the net or sneaking under defenders along the wall to strip the puck out of the pile. Duke is a smart player who understands his limitations and then works through them. He could be a sneaky solid third liner for the Lightning this season if the opportunity presents itself.
Prospect Depth Chart Notables
LW: Dylan Duke, Joe Connor, Noah Steen, Jack Harvey
C: Sam O’Reilly, Jack Finley, Ethan Czata, Joona Saarelainen, Roman Luttsev, Gabriel Szturc
RW: Ethan Gauthier, Hagen Burrows, Marco Mignosa, Niko Huuhtanen
LD: Jan Golicic, Grant Spada, Maxim Groshev
RD: Everett Baldwin, Max Crozier, Dylan Gill, Simon Lundmark, Roman Schmidt
G: Hugo Alnefelt, Harrison Meneghin, Caleb Heil
For a deeper dive into the prospect pool with player rankings, check out the Yearbook and Future Watch editions of the Hockey News print edition!
Matthew Tkachuk featured on cover of NHL 26, first Panthers player selected since John VanbiesbrouckIt’s been a long time since a Florida Panthers player graced the cover of a major NHL video game.
