As we continue diving into draft prospects here at AATJ, we have exclusively covered forwards projected in the top 15, mostly focusing on players that should likely/potentially be available at 12. It shouldn’t be a secret why we have been focusing on forwards as our prospect cupboard up front is is about as barren as XGMTF’s head. However, Best Player available should ALWAYS be the mantra during the draft and 2026 has several defenseman projected to go early in the draft. So, today I am going to take a look at the left shot guys who couldn’t be more different.
Albert Smits
Smits has had one of the more remarkable paths to get here – and is projected to be the highest drafted Latvian player in NHL history assuming he goes before 14 (Zemgus Girgensons). He is a big boy at 6’3” 209lbs and plays every inch of that size. His journey started when he left Latvia in 2021 at age 13 (by himself) to play in Finland and has steadily progressed eventually playing in the pro league this past season. Where he really started getting recognition was at the WJC and more recently the Olympics this past February where he more than held his own against the best in the world.
Based on being a big, strong, 2-way defenseman from a “non-traditional” country, the most immediate comparable I’ve seen is Moritz Seider. So let’s take a look at some video to see if that holds up:
I honestly can see the comp – he has great 4-way mobility, good instincts and poise with the puck, and makes strong offensive reads. Defensively, his gaps are near perfect and he showed a good stick and closing speed. He’s also not afraid to get physical. In the shift by shift every puck touch was the correct decision. He joins the rush when he should and has a good sense of where he is in the zone and doesn’t get caught. His offense isn’t overly dynamic and may be more muted at the NHL level which is why he is ranked in the 5-9 range on most lists, but he is pro ready and there is not a lot to dislike about his game.
Carson Carels
Carels is a cattle farm kid from Cypress River, Manitoba (pop. 175) – just over the border from North Dakota and west of Winnipeg. He stands 6’2” 198 lbs and profiles as smooth skating transition monster with good physicality and a bit of a mean streak. He was drafted by and joined the Prince George Cougars of the WHL and has represented Canada at every national tournament for which he has been eligible. He had a massive breakout this past season putting up big numbers while wearing an ‘A’ for Prince George and is committed to North Dakota next season.
Carels is firmly in the top 10 draft projections across the board, projected as high as 3rd. Frankly the only thing putting some of the RHD ahead of him is just that, handedness. He is, in my opinion, the best defenseman in this draft class, does everything well and projects as a Jake Sanderson jack of all trades with good offense. Let’s take a look at the videotape:
That comp holds up, although I definitely see him needing a little more polish in his defensive game. He does have good gaps and a good stick and closed well in transition, but feel like that can improve a touch. That being said, I’m big believer in drafting for offense and skating and he has both in spades – which is similar to Sanderson’s profile in his draft year. Get used to this kid there is a very strong possibility he winds up across the river.
Xavier Villeneuve
Villeneuve has largely crept up rankings for two reasons: 1) Lane Hutson’s success and 2) a monster performance at the U18 WJC. He is 5’11” 162 lbs and profiles very similar to Hutson, and frankly Quinn Hughes, as a dynamic undersized, offensive defenseman. In a copycat league, teams and scouts now have their radars on high alert for guys like this so they don’t slip through the cracks again. He is committed to BU net season which will be eye opening if he can elevate at the next level. He tops out at as high as #5, but most lists have him mid-teens to low 20s.
Villeneuve isn’t just a WJC flash in the pan though, for 2 years he has put up PPG numbers in the QMJHL, so let’s dive into some video and see if this kid has got it:
OK so his highlight reel is disgusting, he has fantastic high-zone awareness and ability, creates space and spins off pressure like a certain brother we all know. He also flashed some great passing and elite puck skills, his edgework and skating are elite in his highlights. I can see the Hutson, Quinn (insert undersized great skating Dman here) comps, but like I was with Dageneis, I am skeptical of the QMJHL and how top prospects look there.
So, let’s look at a whole game:
He is definitely an offensive wizard, and basically created a chance every shift for himself or teammates. I love his poise in the zone with the puck. He wasn’t overtly physical but I was mildly surprised that he didn’t shy away from contact, he even laid a few cross checks – one in front of the net, one as the 3rd guy into a puck battle in the corner. His Defensive zone positioning and puck decisions could use some work, it wasn’t egregious, but he did drift a few times puck watching, leaving a back door guy. He also had a few bad clearing attempts that turned into turnovers, and a few times got caught heading up ice leaving a guy behind him.
My Thoughts
If I had to rank these guys, I would have Carels, Smits, and Villeneuve in that order as do most draft rankings. Turns out scouts know things. I spent the most time on Villeneuve because one really have to believe in someone of his stature to take a 1st round flier on him. I was also an undersized defenseman and I’m glad to see the short guy club’s lobbying has finally started paying dividends.
Smits seems the most pro ready as of this writing, simply since his defensive game is the most sound, but I see Carels as the long term best of the group. Unless something crazy happens I’d have to imagine Carels and Smits will be long gone by the time we get to 12. Also, as I mentioned in the opening the defense room seems full at the moment but you never know what it may look like in 2-3 years. Unfortunately, I just don’t think the Devils are in a position to take a risk on a 2-3 year project this draft.
What do you think gang, any interest in any of these guys? Anyone of them stand out? Do you agree with how I have them ranked? Let me know in the comments!
LGD
