When the Pittsburgh Penguins lost to the Chicago Blackhawks back in mid-October, in large part due to a bad late goal surrendered by Sergei Murashov, it seemed to break his confidence a little bit. He did not have a good game to begin with, and that goal seemed to be the one that really pushed him over the edge. His next two starts, against the Vegas Golden Knights and Montreal Canadiens, were ugly. Very ugly. He allowed five goals in each start, had a sub-.800 save percentage, and looked like a young goalie that was struggling to find himself.
That seems to be changing over his past two starts. That was especially true in Wednesday’s 3-2 shootout win against the San Jose Sharks, where he stopped 34-of-36 shots through overtime, and then stopped all three shots he faced in the shootout.
It was a breakout game of sorts for him, and one of the best starts of his (very) young career.
Things started to turn around for him in the first game of this road trip in Los Angeles when he stopped 26-of-28 shots in a 5-2 Penguins win. The two goals he allowed were more flukey than anything else, with both coming off weird bounces (one off the glass behind the net that fell right in Corey Perry’s lap, and another that took a weird bounce off Penguins defenseman Kaedan Korczak). I will not go as far as to say he stole the game, but he was really good. He did what he needed to do, played a strong game, and took a big step forward.
On Wednesday night in San Jose, he was closer to stealing it.
Not only did he make the 34 saves (again, on 36 shots) through overtime and the three shootout saves, he bailed out an especially leaky defense on several occasions, made some high-level saves on Grade-A scoring chances, and perhaps most importantly, seemed to play with sky-high confidence. He not only looked really good, he looked in control. It was a highly, highly encouraging start, continuing an encouraging stretch of starts for him, and an producing an even better result.
I have been saying all along this season that goaltending will be one of the big wild-cards that determines the success of this team, and you have to be prepared for some ups-and-downs with them. Especially Murashov, given that he is a 22-year-old rookie in his first full season of NHL hockey. There are going to be some highs and lows. Goalies are the most volatile position in the sport, and it is even more true with young goalies.
Murashov has already had a lot of the peaks and valleys.
Including Wednesday’s game in San Jose, he has had four starts this season where his save percentage topped .914, while he combined to save 6.54 goals above expected in those starts. That is really, really good. Top-level starter kind of stuff. He has also had three starts where his save percentage has been .815 or lower, and was minus-6.62 in goals saved above expected. Obviously, not as good. That is a young goalie for you, though. You just have to have some patience here.
I am not going to go as far as to say he completely stole Wednesday’s game, because that would unfairly undersell the chances the Penguins created offensively. Even though they only scored two goals through overtime, they did create a lot of opportunities. The goalie at the other end of the ice, Yaroslav Askarov, was just as good as Murashov in that game and easily took a few potential goals off the board for the Penguins. They could have absolutely scored four or five goals in that game.
Murashov did, however, bail out their defensive play.
It was an interesting goalie matchup because Askarov, now 24, is not that far removed from being in the position that Murashov is in now. He arrived in San Jose in a trade with the Nashville Predators (with a first-round pick going the other way) and figured to be a key part of their rebuild. He has had a lot of inconsistencies and struggles playing behind a really bad defense (and a mostly bad team). He is starting to figure out and put things together and has actually been a bright spot for the Sharks this season, having stopped 5.2 goals above expected through Wednesday’s game. The fact the Sharks are still so bad in the standings is more of a testament to how bad the rest of the team is and how bad their defense still is than anything regarding Askarov.
I would still like to see Murashov be further ahead than where Askarov is two years from now, and be a better player as he gets to that point, but it does kind of show just how unpredictable and how much of a process this is. Remember, Marc-Andre Fleury was not an immediate success his first couple of years in the league. There were a lot of growing pains in there, and even some trips back to the minors. Granted, he was even younger than Murashov is now, and I am not expecting Murashov to have Fleury’s career, but the point remains the same — expect some of this. Nothing should be a surprise here.
The Penguins have improved their farm system significantly over the past two years, creating some real prospect depth and some young players that have a chance to be NHL regulars. The problem is there really is not anybody that projects to be a superstar level player. At least not yet.
In terms of skaters, Ben Kindel is probably the closest, and while I do think we are underselling his upside a bit, even if he becomes a star-level player in the future, he is most likely not going to be on that top-tier list among NHL players. Maybe an All-Star. Not quite a superstar.
Murashov is probably the one guy in the organization that has a chance to be that sort of superstar, game-changing level player. It just so hard to project it because of the position and the volatility of it. His ceiling is probably higher than any young player they have. His floor is also potentially lower than most of them. But if he does get to that ceiling? Or even close to it? That would be significant. Having one of your home-grown players that turns out to be a star-level playing being a goalie is a big development. They just have to get him there.
