NHL playoff picture: Where Bruins stand in intense East race with 10 games left originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Bruins are in the midst of a very competitive playoff race in the NHL’s Eastern Conference, and even though they are in a strong position to qualify for the postseason, the job is far from finished.
A brutal 3-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on home ice Tuesday night was a setback, but the Bruins earned a much-needed two points Wednesday night with an overtime victory versus the Atlantic Division-leading Buffalo Sabres.
Only 10 games remain on the Bruins’ schedule, and plenty of challenges await on the road to the postseason.
Let’s look at the state of the East playoff race and where the Bruins stand entering Wednesday.
Standings
Atlantic Division
Wild Card
If the Bruins make the playoffs, it will most likely be in a wild card spot, but they could also still finish top three in the Atlantic Division. The Canadiens and Bruins both have 88 points in third place, but Montreal has two games in hand.
The wild card battle is currently a four-team race, with the Islanders in the worst position of the group. The Bruins are in a good spot with a three-point edge over the Senators and Islanders, along with more regulation wins than the Islanders and Red Wings. Regulation wins is the first tiebreaker, followed by regulation and overtime wins (ROW).
The Bruins will take two points any way they can get them, but accumulating them in regulation is the most impactful way to help their cause.
Remaining schedule
The No. 1 argument for why the Bruins could miss the playoffs is their schedule. It’s brutally tough the rest of the way. In fact, it’s the hardest remaining slate in the league, per Tankathon.
Seven of the Bruins’ final 10 games are against teams currently in a playoff spot. Six of the 10 are on the road. They play the teams with the second-best, third-best, fifth-best, sixth-best and ninth-best records.
Two matchups remain against the Tampa Bay Lightning, who might be the best team in the East right now. Two games against the Columbus Blue Jackets remain, too, and those matchups will be pivotal (CBJ has 87 points as the second-place team in the Metropolitan Division). Both of those matchups are in Columbus.
Boston’s “easiest” games are against the Panthers and Devils. The Panthers are a tough team to beat and have given the B’s trouble for years, while the Devils beat the Bruins just 10 days ago.
With a bunch of good opponents remaining, plus three more back-to-backs, the Bruins will need to play their best hockey of the season to secure enough points to earn a playoff spot.
What the analytics say
MoneyPuck’s model gives the Bruins a 75.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. HockeyStats’ model gives the Bruins a 71 percent chance. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s model gives the B’s a 57 percent of reaching the postseason.
What must happen for the Bruins to make the playoffs?
They need Jeremy Swayman to keep playing at a Vezina Trophy level. He ranks third among all goalies with 28.3 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck, and his 4.72 WAR (wins above replacement) also ranks third-highest in the league.
Strong goaltending has been the primary factor in the Bruins exceeding expectations so far this season. That trend has to continue for the Bruins to punch their ticket to the playoffs, especially when you consider seven of their last 10 games are against opponents who rank top 13 in goals scored per game.