Wednesday features a small NHL slate with only four games, but it includes a standout matchup between two playoff-caliber teams that have stumbled out of the gate. The Edmonton Oilers have been one of the weakest defensive clubs in the league, allowing 73 goals through 21 games while still managing a 9-8-1 record.
They meet a Washington Capitals team that appears to have spent much of its early-season energy pushing Alex Ovechkin toward the goal record. Washington sits at 9-8-2, kept afloat by strong play from goaltender Logan Thompson, who leads the league with a 1.85 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage.
For anyone following our Pad Stack challenge, the mission has not changed. We began with a ten dollar bankroll and continue to grow it through calculated, research-driven plays. Our previous run ended on Monday at a season-high total of $411.47 before a last-minute empty-netter from the Florida Panthers spoiled our Vancouver spread. We are now rebuilding after resetting to $31, boosted by Tuesday night’s winning play on the Maple Leafs. Our aim is to keep climbing with a confident selection from Wednesday’s Oilers versus Capitals matchup.
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Picks: Capitals Over 3.0 Goals (-133)
Yesterday, we avoided the trap set by the sportsbooks. We explained why the Leafs’ matchup with the Blues looked almost guaranteed to be a high-scoring shootout, yet the odds suggested the books knew something the public didn’t. All the signs pointed to a goal-heavy game, which is exactly what they wanted bettors to believe. Instead, we backed the Maple Leafs and the under, and it paid off as Toronto pulled out a 3–2 overtime win.
A similar situation appears to be unfolding on Wednesday when the Oilers face the Capitals. Many will expect an Oilers bounce back, especially since they have won only three of their last eight games and have allowed 33 goals during that stretch. The Capitals have been slightly better with three wins in their last seven games. Their challenge is not defense but offense. Before last season’s breakout, Washington struggled to generate scoring, and that issue has resurfaced. They rank ninth worst in goals per game at 2.79, though there has been modest improvement with 11 goals in their last four games.
I expect Edmonton’s defensive issues to continue. The public will assume the Oilers will push hard to respond, but the Capitals should be ready for a tough battle. Choosing a side is tricky because Washington is at home while Edmonton is 3–1 against the spread this season as an underdog. The Capitals have also won four of their last six meetings with the Oilers, scoring three or more goals in each of those wins, including a 7–3 blowout in February. Even in losses, Washington still finds ways to score on Edmonton with three or more goals in eight of their last ten matchups.
A $31 wager on the Capitals to score at least three goals would return a profit of $23.25, bringing the total to $54.25 plus if Washington finishes with exactly three goals, the bet results in a push.
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