At Mavs Moneyball we operate out of an instance of Slack, that’s how we do business, chat, watch games, etc. It’s one of those things I wish we could open to the public (a Discord?) but I don’t have time to manage one more thing. So sometime I’ll come back to a given Slack channel and see enough for an article. The Draft channel is easily the one where things get the most intense. So we’re going to do a weekly post: what is your hottest draft take from this last week of games or watching tape?
Tyler: Christian Anderson Jr. should have more consideration as a potential lottery guy in this class. Anderson was a standout at the FIBA U19 World Cup this summer, earning all-tournament honors. The other two guys to earn those honors? AJ Dybantsa and Mikel Brown Jr., who both should go top 10 in this draft.
On the season, Anderson Jr. is averaging over 20 points and seven assists per contest, while shooting 49% from the floor and over 45% from three. He also plays basically every minute of every game. Anderson Jr. has played 37+ minutes in 17 straight games, going the full 40 in six of them. He’s a workhorse guard who is playing with elite efficiency and orchestrating the entire offense.
Even with the known concerns about his size (just 178 pounds) and athleticism, the Texas Tech product deserves to be in that same tier as your other mid-to-late lottery guards. He’s that good.
Joe: My Hottest take right now is that Dailyn Swain could go as high as late lottery. Not saying he will go that high, but I see the vision. Swain is one of the more intriguing long-term wing bets in this class. He is a 21-year-old two-way connector with size, athleticism, and a game that translates better to the NBA than to a cramped college floor. This season, he is averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting an efficient 56 percent from the field.
The jumper is the clear swing skill at 27 percent from three and 65 percent from the line, but he has improved his production and efficiency every year, keeping his developmental arrow pointing up. Swain impacts games without requiring high usage. He is a good cutter who relocates well, runs the floor hard, and finishes downhill with either hand. In transition, he can handle, pass, and create advantages without forcing shots. As a passer, he plays with feel, even if he occasionally tries to make a difficult read instead of taking the simple one.
Defensively, his versatility drives his value. He can already guard positions one through three and has the frame and mobility to eventually take on some fours in switching schemes. His length, instincts, and movement give him real lineup flexibility at the next level.
The shooting will decide how far he goes. His mechanics and confidence from deep need work, but his efficiency inside the arc, cutting, and transition play already give him ways to score. In an NBA environment with more spacing, his downhill game and defensive impact should pop. If the jumper comes around, Swain profiles as the kind of high-level rotation wing every good team needs.
Kirk: I don’t really contribute much to draft content, I don’t have the bandwidth. But I saw Nathan Grubel appear on Locked on Mavs and how he talked about Cameron Boozer and I felt compelled to dig deeper. And I just don’t get it. The top of the NBA Draft is about selecting someone who can change your franchise. Numbers are numbers but when I’ve watched Boozer I haven’t felt the impact. Maybe I am crazy but pairing him with Flagg seems like a tremendous waste of a pick and fixes none of the current Maverick problems. Of course that would be a nice problem to have, drafting that high I mean, but that whole take from Nathan. doesn’t pass my casual eye test.
Bryan: Darryn Peterson at 21.6p/4.6r/1.9a on 49/42/82 shooting splits is number one with a bullet in this class and the ongoing debate about Cam Boozer or AJ Dybantsa possibly being drafted first instead still confounds me a bit. Peterson is the most complete prospect in this class and will enter the draft process as the best guard prospect since John Wall in 2010. He’s dealt with a hamstring injury that kept him off the court for a long while and affected his ability to move and drive for a while after his return, but he is usually an explosive athlete both vertically and laterally. Darryn’s an outstanding finisher who can do it with craft, finesse, and explosive leaping ability paired with being a fluid ballhandler with an array of moves, counters, fakes and mid-range step-backs.
His most criticized skill after what some believed to be an outlier senior year of shooting has proven to be elite indeed as he’s now a knockdown three point shooter off the bounce (both in iso and PNR) and off the catch (both standstill and as a movement shooter flying around screens). He has yet to turn the ball over this season as a pick-and-roll ballhandler and has flatly been the best scorer on or off ball in the class. Oh, and he’s also the best defensive prospect in the class not named Jaden Quaintance or Caleb Wilson and has been since high school.
This guy is inevitable and frankly the only reason debate rages on about who should be first overall this coming June is because he’s missed time due to the hamstring (an injury that can linger if not fully healed and very easily be tweaked again) and a need for content to fill the draft news cycle (stone, glass house, yadda yadda). If the Mavericks miraculously land the number one pick again, I know who I’m taking.
David S.: My hot take is Keaton Wagler is a lottery pick and I don’t mean at 14th. Stop me when hear something that doesn’t make an NBA scout drool.. Wagler is an 18 year old jumbo secondary initiator with a tight handle that can shoot the three, has great passing skills, and a high IQ player. He is more crafty than athletic, but his height, ability change speeds, shoot, and distribute the basketball make him an elite offensive weapon on and off the ball. Wagler is averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists with only 1.4 turnovers. Wagler is shooting around 40% from behind the arch and 82% from the free throw line.
Defensively Wagler’s length and IQ make him a promising defender in the NBA. On tape he has a long wing span, but we likely won’t know how long til the NBA combine. Physically Wagler will need to add more muscle to his wiry frame be a solid wing defender at the next level.
While I don’t see Wagler as a number one option in the NBA. If he becomes an average defender, he has the tools to help spread the floor for a teams number one option. The 6’6 combo guard will benefit greatly from an Illini deep run in the March Tournament.
