Category: Basketball

The Tuesday night loss to the Atlanta Hawks was bad. The loss last night was worse. The Wizards fell behind quickly, made a first quarter run when the Hawks slacked off early, and then got their doors blown off. Again.

I’ve now written several versions of a sentence that communicates the idea that the competitive portion of this game ended early. They all landed wrong because in truth, there was no competitive portion. The players wearing Wizards uniforms tried. I have no reason to think Brian Keefe and his staff didn’t give a professional effort on the coaching front.

But the roster — designed to lose and lose badly — was missing several of its best players, and against a semi-competent team playing for something, there was no hope.

Less than four minutes into the game, Hawks legend/broadcaster Dominique Wilkins said it was going to be a blowout win for Atlanta. The score at the time: 14-2. It would be another minute of game time until Tre Johnson hit a three, which was Washington’s first field goal of the game.

Acknowledging the above is not complaining. Well, it is complaining because I love watching good basketball. This kinda begs the question of why I’ve spent so many years watching the Wizards and Bullets, and I don’t have a satisfactory answer. Over the past couple decades, I’ve taken to saying that I jumped on the bandwagon in 1978, and the exits are poorly marked.

In this one, the Wizards were annihilated by CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert — who they traded to Atlanta earlier this season for Trae Young, who may one day take the floor for Washington.

McCollum took his former teammates to school, pumping in 25 points on 19 shots in 26 minutes. The NBA mantra he got what he wanted was invented for games like this. Wizards defenders tried to slow McCollum. He was just better — routinely maneuvering them where he wanted to go and then pulling the trigger on the shot he wanted. If he’d actually been hot (9-19 from the floor and just 2-8 from three), the damage would have been worse.

Speaking of getting hot and causing worse damage, Kispert feasted on open looks to score a career high 33 points, including 22 in the first half — tying his career-best scoring output for a half. Kispert kept getting wide open threes, and I kept rewinding the action to see why.

Examples?

• With about a minute left in the first quarter, the Hawks had the ball in transition — two Hawks running up on offense vs. two Wizards back and in position to defend. Justin Champagnie picked up the ball. Will Riley for some reason just drifted back towards the basket — ignoring Kispert (a dangerous three-point shooter, especially in transition) sprinting to the corner. I jotted KYP (know your personnel) in my notes, which is pretty ridiculous considering these guys were teammates who went through training camp together.
• The very next possession — a Hawks transition possession — Anthony Gill was on an island needing to defend two. As the ball went to Kispert on the wing, Gill took his first step…towards Jock Landale in the corner. He redirected quickly, but Kispert got another open look (which he hit).
• To start the second quarter, Atlanta ran a basic pindown for Kispert. Jaden Hardy was trailing, but Gill was dropped way into the lane, so Kispert got yet another open shot.

The Wizards did react. About a minute later, they overplayed Kispert at the three-point line, and he responded with an easy drive for a layup. That bucket gave him 19 points with more than 10 minutes left in the second quarter. He’d been on the court for about seven minutes of playing time at that point.

Thoughts & Observations

• Tre Johnson has been guilty of holding the ball and not passing to open teammates when routine passes could initiate the offensive flow. Tristan Vukcevic gave a classic (but muted) “WTF?” gesture Tuesday night. Last night, other teammates had similar reactions. In addition to get the offense moving passes he missed, he either didn’t recognize or chose not to make simple passes to teammates wide open at the three-point line. Not something to worry about, but perhaps something worth monitoring.
• The Hawks had a giveaway going, which they decided to do by laying out t-shirts on seats. The result: pink seat backs that served to highlight how many empty seats there were.
• The Hawks broadcast is an often entertaining product at the intersection of interesting basketball insights, poor preparation, and mistakes.
• Atlanta play-by-play man Bob Rathbun (who I knew a little when he was calling games for Old Dominion University) very carefully mispronounces Vukcevic’s name. For the record, it’s VOOK-suh-vitch. Not VOOK-eh-vitch. Not VOOCH-eh-vitch. VOOK-suh-vitch.
• After saying the game would be a Hawks blowout, Wilkins watched as the Wizards went on a run. When they got the score to 20-18, Wilkins said, “I didn’t see this coming.” Atlanta immediately responded with a run of their own, and the game was never close again.
• At the 4:44 mark of the first quarter, Bilal Coulibaly hit a pullup midrange jumper. According to play-by-play data, about 4% of Coulibaly’s shots have come from that distance this season.
• Another Wilkins comment: “Riley has no idea what he’s doing on the floor right now.”
• More ‘Nique? After Johnson drove and dunked, Wilkins said, “He’s standing there posing. You just want to say, ‘Young man, you’re down 17.‘ ”
• At the half, Rathbun had a good line: “The old Wizards are sticking it to the new Wizards.”
• The Wizards developed a theme in my notes at the end of the first half and start of the second — “dumb” fouls. They included a pointless push by Johnson that resulted in a McCollum four-point play, an inexplicable take foul by Coulibaly, and then a non-flagrant foul that should have been a flagrant on Johnson.
• Bub Carrington is not a good lob passer.
• No one from the Wizards actually played well last night. Gill led the team in total production with a below-average 80 PPA. Johnson was the only player to crack average, and his game was just a 103. Average is 100.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

FOUR FACTORS	WIZARDS	HAWKS	LGAVG
eFG%	43.1%	53.3%	54.3%
OREB%	19.6%	25.0%	26.1%
TOV%	13.3%	12.4%	12.8%
FTM/FGA	0.160	0.319	0.208
PACE	105		99.5
ORTG	91	120	115.4

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Anthony Gill	31	68	118	14.5%	0.3	80	-29
Will Riley	36	78	84	24.3%	-6.0	66	-32
Tre Johnson	20	44	108	25.4%	-0.8	103	-9
Leaky Black	30	67	139	4.0%	0.6	63	-22
Justin Champagnie	20	44	108	27.2%	-0.8	94	-20
Bilal Coulibaly	22	49	101	19.4%	-1.4	57	-1
Bub Carrington	22	48	91	12.2%	-1.4	26	1
Tristan Vukcevic	17	37	105	29.8%	-1.1	22	-1
Sharife Cooper	14	31	43	16.2%	-3.7	-82	-3
Jaden Hardy	28	60	59	32.1%	-10.9	-104	-34

HAWKS	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Corey Kispert	28	61	147	30.0%	5.8	367	26
Dyson Daniels	33	73	145	15.4%	3.3	302	28
CJ McCollum	26	57	125	31.2%	1.7	246	2
Jonathan Kuminga	30	65	119	21.4%	0.6	163	23
Onyeka Okongwu	26	58	99	20.1%	-1.9	115	10
Mouhamed Gueye	18	40	122	5.5%	0.1	88	6
Zaccharie Risacher	25	54	102	14.5%	-1.0	60	10
Jock Landale	18	40	86	28.1%	-3.3	59	20
Gabe Vincent	16	35	120	11.0%	0.2	34	15
Keaton Wallace	13	28	25	8.6%	-2.2	-107	10
Christian Koloko	3	6	179	45.4%	1.9	648	0
Asa Newell	3	6	101	22.4%	-0.2	-51	0

The Milwaukee Bucks play host to the New York Knicks tonight at Fiserv, eager to complete their third three-game win streak of the season. As I’ll get to, the Knicks haven’t looked like themselves lately, while the Bucks are flying. The season series between these two sides sits at one game apiece, with Milwaukee taking the first contest just four games into the season, and New York taking the most recent one.

Where We’re At

The Bucks have won eight of their last 10. Most recently, they lost handily to the Raptors, but responded by beating the Heat and (zombie) Cavaliers on a back-to-back. Not to demean anyone else, but Milwaukee’s return to winning has come primarily off the back of three players: Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, and Jericho Sims. Porter and Rollins have been doing a great job of creating for themselves and others (while Porter, at least, has kept his turnovers down). Over the back-to-back, the Porter-Rollins duo racked up 91 points and 26 assists. As for Sims, he’ll never fill up the stat sheet, but anyone who’s been watching recently can tell how much of an impact he’s made as a defender and rebounder. This is evidenced by the fact that, over the past 10 games, the Bucks—who’ve been a bad rebounding team for most of this season—have the fifth-best defensive rebounding percentage and the 15th-best offensive rebounding percentage. Much of that credit goes to Sims, who’s had 10 O boards in the last three games.

The Knicks, on the other hand, are sputtering. Their overall record lately, going .500 over their last eight games, doesn’t look too bad on the surface, but context is needed. They lost to the Pacers, very nearly lost to the Bulls, beat the Rockets after Houston crapped the bed up 18 in the fourth, and got annihilated by the Pistons twice and Cavs once. They have the 15th-best net rating in the NBA over that eight-game span. Having said that, this team won eight in a row right before this most recent eight-game streak (which followed a horror stretch before that!). In short, New York has an equally low floor as it does a high ceiling—anything could happen tonight.

Injury Report

For the Bucks, Giannis (calf) and Taurean Prince (neck) are both out. For the Knicks, Miles McBride (core) is out.

Player To Watch

Let’s keep rolling with Jericho Sims. Going up against the rebounding beast that is Mitchell Robinson, Sims will need to keep doing what he’s been doing on the boards. Jericho actually seems like a decent matchup to cover the pick-and-pops from Karl-Anthony Towns (probably better than Myles Turner, at least). The bigs will play a huge role in who wins this game.

How To Watch

FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin at 7:00 p.m. CST.

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For the second time this week, the Atlanta Hawks squared off against the hapless Washington Wizards in front of their home fans at State Farm Arena. After beating Washington handily on Tuesday, Atlanta delivered an equally emphatic 126-96 victory last night — though with Jalen Johnson (left hip contusion) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (left foot sprain) watching this one from the sidelines, the manner of victory looked a little different than it did on Tuesday.

The Wizards have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, ranking 29th in offense and 28th in defense, still, with the Play-In race in the Eastern Conference heating up, it was important that the Hawks took care of business on Thursday evening.

Corey Kispert led all scorers with a career-high 33 points on 11-for-19 shooting from the field (6-for-11 from three) against his former team, while CJ McCollum added 25 points in 26 minutes of action. Dyson Daniels had a nice night, filling up the stat sheet with 13 points, 11 assists and five steals. Jonathan Kuminga, logging his first start in a Hawks uniform, chipped in with 17 points, nine rebounds and three assists.

McCollum had it going early on, scoring eight out of Atlanta’s first 14 points as the Hawks jumped out to an early 14-2 lead. A cold spell from Atlanta saw Washington cut the lead to two, before the Hawks pulled away towards the end of the quarter — thanks in large part to Washington turning the ball over four times over the final 3:00 of the period (and Corey Kispert going nuclear).

Here, after a chaotic sequence, Daniels pokes the ball free from Jayden Hardy leading to a Kispert triple after some nice ball movement by Atlanta.

A few plays later, Landale gets a paw on the entry pass, leading to a fastbreak opportunity for Atlanta and another Kispert three ball.

On the very next possession, a wayward entry pass from Anthony Gil leads to another Daniels steal. He finds Kispert with a nice hit-ahead pass for another open triple.

Adding insult to injury, Mo Gueye capped off the quarter with a steal and slam, and Atlanta took a 37-26 lead into the second quarter.

Another defining factor in the first quarter was the frequency with which Atlanta was getting out in transition and generating quality early shot clock looks while preventing them on the other end, with the Hawks outscoring the Wizards 16-0 in fastbreak points in the opening frame.

Here, Daniels grabs the rebound, races the other way and finds Kuminga for a wide-open corner three.

In the play below, Daniels glides right by Champagnie for a pretty transition finish off of a Washington miss.

In the second, Atlanta extended their lead to 20, facing little resistance from the visiting team. While they continued to shoot the ball well from the outside (with McCollum and Kispert knocking down two three-pointers apiece), they also did a good job attacking the paint — shooting 8-for-12 from the interior in the second.

Here, Daniels goes to his trademark spin move before dropping in the floater over Bilal Coulibaly.

In the play below, Risacher gets the handoff from Okongwu, then finds him underneath the basket for two.

A few minutes later, Daniels finds McCollum cutting to the basket for a silky smooth finish at the rim.

Even Zaccharie Risacher, in the midst of a rough February shooting-wise, got in on the action, throwing down a mean lefty slam over Coulibaly in transition.

ZACCHARIE RISACHER LEFTY POSTER pic.twitter.com/V8KXvzPzEx

— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) February 27, 2026

Still, while the Hawks took a commanding 76-56 lead into the halftime break, it wasn’t all perfect in the second quarter, with the team suffering a handful of defensive breakdowns towards the end of the period.

Here, Risacher gets caught in no-man’s land, leading to a Coulibaly slam. After Carrington rejects the screen, Risacher has to try and shrink the floor, ideally positioning himself by the nail so he can keep an eye on Coulibaly and play the pass to Vukcevic. Instead, he’s out of position when Carrington passes to Vukcevic, and Coulibaly loses him with a backdoor cut.

Here, Tre Johnson loses McCollum around the screen from Vukcevic. Okongwu is in good position to wall off the drive while CJ recovers, but he abandons his spot way too early (rotating onto 28% three-point shooter Tristan Vukcevic camped out on the perimeter) and Johnson takes it right to the hole for a slam with Atlanta’s rim protection out of the way.

Here, Leaky Black clears McCollum out of the way before Coulibaly beats Kuminga off the dribble, taking it to the cup for an easy two. Far too easy.

The third quarter lacked the shot-making prowess that we were treated to in the first half. Atlanta — ahead by 20 — looked quite lethargic coming out of the break, managing just 22 points on 7-for-21 shooting from the field (7-for-11 at the free-throw line), while turning the ball over seven times* in the period.

_{*They turned it over just twice in the first-half.}

Here, after the air-ball from Risacher, Kuminga tries to thread the needle but throws it away.

A few plays later, Okongwu commits a careless turnover in the back-court leading to an easy two points for Washington, prompting Quin Snyder to call for timeout with the Wizards only trailing by 14.

Fortunately for the Hawks, Washington continued to struggle shooting the basketball in the third (10-for-28 from the field, 2-for-10 from three) and couldn’t find a way back into the ball game despite the lack of verve from Atlanta. A Kuminga-led flurry to close the quarter saw Atlanta take a 98-80 lead into the final period.

The fourth quarter was hardly competitive. Atlanta got the period started on a 6-0 run and led by 24 with just under six minutes remaining. Meanwhile, the Wizards kept up the miserable shooting (6-for-24 from the field, 0-for-9 from three) and managed just 16 points in the final frame.

When the buzzer sounded, the Hawks went home with a resounding 126-96 victory.

Searching for some overarching themes from this one, one big difference between the two sides was seen in the amount of free-throws the Hawks were able to generate, with Atlanta finishing the game with 37 free-throw attempts (29-for-37) — tied for the fourth most free throw attempts they’ve taken in a game this season — while Washington finished the game just 15-for-16 at the line.

Jonathan Kuminga, who has routinely ranked near the top of the league in shooting fouls drawn (per cleaningtheglass) over the course of his career, put a ton of pressure on the rim in this one*, tying his season-high with eight free throw attempts, converting six of them.

_{*Something Atlanta have desperately needed since the McCollum and Kispert additions.}

Another difference was that despite these two teams ranking near the top of the league in ‘pace’, the Hawks were the only ones able to consistently generate quality early shot clock looks, outscoring Washington 24-11 in fast-break points.

Of course, it was always going to be difficult for Washington to overcome the massive shooting discrepancy (58.7% true shooting percentage (TS%) for Atlanta vs. 47.5% Washington), but the fact that they were unable to gain on edge on the glass or in the turnover margin sealed their fate.

Postgame, Quin Snyder had the following to say on how the team responded to a difficult third quarter.

“I think the way we started the third quarter. I didn’t think we defended as well, but also, we missed some shots, and that makes it harder because they were in transition. But those are the times where we’ve talked about, we just can’t give up big runs, so we did a good job responding to that. NBA games get competitive, and I was just happy with the way we defended throughout the course of the game. We’ve got to do a better job on the defensive glass, and I didn’t think we crashed the offensive glass as consistently as we need to. So, that possession game is just crucial for us, and we need everyone to do it.”

On getting out to a fast start in the first quarter, Snyder said:

“We had a couple guys shoot it well in the beginning of the game, and Corey throughout the game, but you can’t count on that all the time. You need to be able to rely on getting stops and rebounding. That’s where our focus needs to continue to go.”

On Jonathan Kuminga’s second game in a Hawks jersey:

“The thing that’s impressed me as much as anything is just, his work. You saw that previous to him getting healthy and I think that’s carried over. There are some plays defensively where his strength stands out and he’s been focused. There was a — he lost it out of bounds — but there was a big play out of a timeout. I thought we needed to dig in, [and] he did a really good job just denying the entry pass and he almost had a dunk. So that to me is more impressive than the actual dunk — I know he can dunk. So those little things on the defensive end, he can be impactful”

“Then I think he’s really focused on moving the ball and being unselfish. I thought he made a couple passes tonight that were really impressive, just looking the guy off and seeing the court, and as he plays more, he’s going to be more instinctive.”

On Corey Kispert setting his career high in points (33), and if there were any conversations about feeding him the ball to help him get there.

“We weren’t talking about his career high. I don’t think he was focused on that. We were talking about him doing a good job spacing, which is I think where a lot of his shots came early. He’s someone that we’ll run an ‘ATO’ for because, those are opportunities that you get to take a stab at a three, or if someone overplays the situation, you get high percentage shots. But I don’t think anyone was thinking about that. Frankly, I wasn’t aware of it until you just said it.”

Snyder also spoke highly of Kispert’s ‘determination’ and ‘pride’ when asked about the chase-down block he had in the third quarter, which helped snap the Hawks out of their funk.

Looking ahead, Atlanta has one more game remaining on their homestand, taking on Vit Krejci and the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday evening. Tip off for that one is at 6 PM EST.

Talk soon.

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — New Zealand captain Mitchell Santner won the toss and elected to bat first in cricket's T20 World Cup Super 8 match against England at R. Premadasa Stadium on Friday.

A win will earn New Zealand the second semifinal spot from Group 2. Leader England has already qualified after beating Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Victory for England will leave Pakistan with a slim chance of getting into the semifinals via net run-rate if they beat Sri Lanka on Saturday.

South Africa has already qualified from Group 1. The second spot will be decided by the result of the match between India and the West Indies.

New Zealand fielded the same side that beat Sri Lanka comprehensively on Wednesday while England bolstered its spin attack by recalling Rehan Ahmed in place of Jamie Overton.

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Lineups:

England: Harry Brook (captain), Phil Salt, Jos Buttler, Jacob Bethell, Tom Banton, Sam Curran, Will Jacks, Rehan Ahmed, Liam Dawson, Jofra Archer, Adil Rashid.

New Zealand: Mitchell Santner (captain), Tim Seifert, Finn Allen, Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, Daryl Mitchell, Mark Chapman, Cole McConchie, Matt Henry, Ish Sodhi, Lockie Ferguson.

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AP cricket: https://apnews.com/hub/cricket

In their last game of February, the Sixers picked up one of their most important wins of the season. With the Miami Heat coming into town Thursday just a game and a half behind the Sixers for the sixth seed and final guaranteed playoff spot, the Sixers knocked them off 124-117.

That seemed to take a backseat to a new franchise record. Tyrese Maxey passed Allen Iverson for the most made three-pointers in franchise history. He was three away from the record coming into the game and got it out of the way early, drilling five triples in the first quarter.

He was especially keen to get the record out of the way early — learning how close he was threw him off in the team’s previous game in Indiana.

“He was complaining that they told him too much the other night or something,” head coach Nick Nurse said. “He didn’t want to know, and he knew, and he was thinking about it a bit.”

Maxey explained that the culprit here was his close buddy Trendon Watford, who told him that Maxey might as well break it against the Pacers after hitting his first two threes in that game. Maxey didn’t make a three the rest of that game.

One game later against the Heat, Watford got to be apart of the record-breaking moment.

“It’s ironic, Trendon was the one that passed me the ball,” Maxey said, “so, we’ll remember that one forever.” 

Anyone who’s followed Maxey for any stretch of his career won’t be shocked to learn that he spent most of his time talking about the record thanking God, his family, coaches and teammates, past and present. Former Sixer Tobias Harris also got a shoutout from Maxey in his postgame presser.

“I gave a shoutout to Tobias earlier,” Maxey said. “In my rookie year he told me I was a great shooter even though I wasn’t shooting as well as I wanted to. He told me I was great shooter.”

Despite Maxey’s rise from a player drafted outside of the lottery to an All-Star game starter, there’s been a sense of humility that he’s never lost. Accolades seem like a nice byproduct of trying to get better every day.

“I didn’t know what to expect. I always said I was going to make it to the NBA, but I didn’t know what to expect, honestly,” he said. “Someone asked me at All-Star [weekend] if I expected to be an All-Star starter, and I was like, ‘Man, no, I just work.’”

The longer his teammates have been around him though, the less of a shock it is for them to see these accomplishments.

“It’s a surreal moment, but it’s not surprising,” said Kelly Oubre Jr., a teammate of Maxey’s for the last three seasons. “He puts in the work, he’s confident, he’s developing every year, and you know, I’m super proud of him and blessed to be alongside him.”

The hard work and leadership Maxey has shown since taking over that role for this team has created a positive feedback loop. It’s something he sees in those he goes to work with as well.

“I’m just appreciative of the Philly fans, appreciative of the Philly organization, and both my coaches who really pushed me to become better every single day,” Maxey said. “When you have your coaches that really believe in you and your teammates that have your back every single night, you can’t ask for anything better than that.”

That work ethic and ultra competitiveness Maxey has become famous for is seen often in his rookie backcourt running mate too. VJ Edgecombe had high praise for the record-breaker, but was able to use it to motivate himself as well.

“The record is going to be harder to break now, I’m gonna try, hopefully I can get to it,” Edgecombe half-joked, “but credit to Tyrese, man. He means a lot to me. Obviously, because of who he is as a person and who he is as a player.”

Three-point records are of course a tricky thing because of how the game has changed, but this achievement is a good mark of just how much work The Franchise has put in.

The Memphis Grizzlies (21–36, 9–18 Away) limp into Dallas to face the Mavericks (21–36, 14–16 Home) on Friday night in the second half of a back-to-back for both teams. Dallas just got shellacked by Sacramento 130–121 despite Naji Marshall dropping 36 points. Memphis is on a three-game losing streak and hasn’t won in seven of their last eight. Both rosters are held together with duct tape and prayers. Cooper Flagg’s availability remains uncertain. The Grizzlies traded Jaren Jackson Jr. three weeks ago and are down seven rotation players. This is what we call “chaos with a spread.”

Let’s scan the lines in search of value.

🏀 Fixture: Memphis Grizzlies (21–36, 9–18 Away) @ Dallas Mavericks (21–36, 14–16 Home)
📍 American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX
🕢 7:30 PM CST, February 27, 2026
📺 KFAA-TV / MavsTV / NBA App

📊 DraftKings Snapshot (as of 3:00 AM CST)
Spread: DAL -5.5 (–110) | MEM +5.5 (–110)
Total: 237.5 (O –108 / U –112)
Moneyline: DAL –225 | MEM +185

📉 Game Side Lean: Mavericks -5.5

Memphis is missing everyone. Seven players out, one doubtful. Ja Morant (elbow). Zach Edey (ankle). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger surgery). Brandon Clarke (calf). The list goes on. What’s left is GG Jackson, a collection of rookies and second-year players, and whatever fumes former Mav Olivier Maxence-Prosper is running on.

Dallas, meanwhile, just lost to the worst team in the league but still has the size and veteran presence to impose their will. The preview from MMB noted that Sacramento beat Memphis earlier this week by outmuscling them in the paint 123–114. If the Mavericks are healthy — and that’s a big if with Cooper Flagg’s status uncertain — they have the frontcourt depth (Marvin Bagley, Daniel Gafford, potentially Khris Middleton) to do the same.

The Grizzlies have won both meetings this season, but those were different rosters. Memphis traded Jaren Jackson Jr. on February 3rd. Dallas shipped Anthony Davis to Washington. Neither team looks remotely like the clubs that met in November.

Back-to-backs are brutal for veteran-heavy teams, but Dallas is at home and Memphis is playing their ninth road game in a brutal stretch. The line dropped from -6.5 last night to -5.5 tonight, which suggests some uncertainty, but the Mavs should have enough to cover if they take care of the ball. They turned it over 17 times against Sacramento. Clean that up and this game stays under control.

🔮 Total Lean: Under 237.5

Both teams played last night. Both teams are exhausted. Both teams are missing significant offensive firepower.

Memphis is down Ja Morant, their primary playmaker, and Zach Edey, their anchor in the paint. Dallas might be without Cooper Flagg again, and even if he plays, he’s coming off a four-game absence with a foot injury. The Grizzlies’ offense has been anemic lately — they’ve lost seven of their last eight — and their roster is so thin that coach Tuomas Iisalo is playing everyone 20+ minutes just to get through games.

Dallas scored 121 last night, but that was in a chaotic shootout with Sacramento where both teams were firing threes and leaking points in transition. Memphis doesn’t have the offensive firepower to turn this into a track meet. The Grizzlies are one of the smallest teams in the league now, and Dallas should control the pace with size and physicality.

The math points under. Two tired teams, depleted rosters, and a game that should grind more than it flows.

🎯 Player Props We Like

GG Jackson Over 15.5 Points (–116)

GG Jackson is the Memphis Grizzlies right now. Since Jaren Jackson Jr. was traded to Utah, GG has started eight of nine games and gone on an absolute heater from three — 20-of-39 since the trade. He’s averaging 17.0 points per game in February and has taken on a massive usage bump with the roster decimated. Dallas is playing without Flagg (likely) and P.J. Washington, which thins out their frontcourt defense. Jackson is an excellent finisher through contact at the rim, and his shooting from deep has opened up the floor for him to operate. With Memphis missing seven rotation players, someone has to score. It’s going to be GG.

Khris Middleton Over 13.5 Points (–110)

Middleton left Tuesday’s game against Brooklyn early with a shoulder stinger, which limited his minutes. But he’s expected to play tonight and should see his usual workload restored. He’s been solid since arriving in the Anthony Davis trade — 25 points against Indiana, 18 against Minnesota — and Memphis has no perimeter defense with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out. Middleton’s veteran savvy and ability to create his own shot should give him plenty of opportunities against a Grizzlies team that’s giving up points in bunches. The line feels generous at 13.5. He should cruise past it.

CJ Fulton says he is expecting "a bit more pressure and attention on me" when he makes his first Ireland appearance in over two years in Friday's FIBA EuroBasket 2029 pre-qualifier against Azerbaijan (19:45 GMT).

It has been a whirlwind year for the 23-year-old after signing for NBA side Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Belfast native is now focused on helping Ireland advance in the qualifiers for the European Championships following defeats by Luxembourg and North Macedonia.

"It's hard to believe it's almost been three years since I last played in the green jersey, but [I'm] looking forward to it," Fulton told BBC Sport NI's Thomas Kane.

"Very important, must-win games if we want to have a chance of qualifying for the EuroBasket.

"I am very excited to be back."

The first round of qualifying for the EuroBasket consists of three groups with the winners of each and the best-ranked second-placed team advancing to the second round.

Then, those teams will be joined by eight more from the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 European qualifiers in the second round of qualifying.

"I think I can definitely come back and help the team," added Fulton.

"The European style of basketball is what I grew up playing, I've been out of it for a little bit, but I'm excited to try and get back into that style of basketball.

"We've got a lot of talented guys on the roster."

• Fulton returns to Ireland squad for double-header
• Fulton signs for NBA's Minnesota Timberwolves

Fulton signed a professional contract with Minnesota Timberwolves after he played two games in the summer league for the side, and was then waived to the Iowa Wolves who are the Timberwolves' reserves.

Since playing for the Wolves, he has featured in the NBA's team-affiliated development division in the G-League.

Now, Fulton returns home after missing the first two Ireland qualifiers due to college commitments and wants to "give back" to the international side.

"Three years ago, I was probably still the young guy, still coming up and trying to make a name for myself whereas, I'm a bit more established," he added.

"Just with everything that's gone on the past few months, there probably will be a bit more pressure and attention on me, but there's a lot of good players on the roster, so I think it's just about me coming back and trying to help the team win.

"I think it's just really important to try and help as much as I can, help grow the game here, give back to the kids."

G-League 'an adjustment'

Following the two international games, the former St Malachy's College pupil will return to Iowa as the Wolves push to make the play-offs.

The side currently sit in eighth position of the G League Western Conference but have lost their last four matches.

"The G League is kind of a unique kind of trade, you know, guys going up to the NBA. So that's been an adjustment, just kind of trying to embrace all the changes that happen rather than knowing what's going on every day," said Fulton.

"It's been a good experience. There's a lot of talented players in the league and a lot of guys that are on the bubble of making that NBA, just they're not quite there yet, or guys who've played in the NBA and are trying to make their way back.

"There's definitely a lot of talent that I'm going up against, and I think that's only going to help me in the long run."

Reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been cleared to return for the Oklahoma City Thunder after missing each of the team's last nine games with an abdominal strain.

According to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, SGA is not currently listed on the team's injury report for Friday's game against the Denver Nuggets.

At the very least, Gilgeous-Alexander will be available for the contest, but he could be on a minutes restriction. After all, the Thunder are still atop the Western Conference standings. There is no need to immediately rush their star player back to the court.

That said, they do only sit two games above San Antonio in the West. Perhaps SGA could play more than anticipated if the Thunder are in danger of losing the game late. Here's what to know.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been cleared to return after missing the last nine games due to an abdominal strain. He is not on OKC’s injury report for tomorrow’s game vs. Nuggets.

— Tim MacMahon (@BannedMacMahon) February 26, 2026

Will SGA play against Denver?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to play Friday against Denver.

There were concerns early on that SGA would miss extended time, pushing him out of the race for MVP due to the 65-game rule. Those worries have disappeared with his return, and SGA has re-emerged as the favorite to win the award.

How did Oklahoma City fare without SGA?

The Thunder went 5-4 in their nine games without SGA.

The Thunder are still without All-NBA forward Jalen Williams and key role player Ajay Mitchell.

Oklahoma City still sits two games above San Antonio for first place in the Western Conference. However, the Spurs have won 10 consecutive games and own the season tiebreaker between the two teams.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander injury update: Will Thunder star play?

Yes, you read that right. It’s not a rerun of a Tim Duncan/Allen Iverson era game. For the first time in over a quarter of a century, Bob Costas and Doug Collins are calling an NBA game for NBC.

On Tuesday, March 3rd, Costas and Collins reunite on NBA to call the game featuring the San Antonio Spurs and the Philadelphia 76ers.

NBC is bringing back its classic NBA coverage broadcast March 3rd as Bob Costas, Doug Collins and Mike Fratello call Spurs vs. 76ers 📺

Coverage tips off with an hourlong “NBA Showtime” hosted by Hannah Storm alongside Isiah Thomas and P.J. Carlesimo. pic.twitter.com/XT3FlUBGAZ

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) February 26, 2026

Mike Fratello will join Costas and Collins for this “classic” coverage as well as the addition of Jim Gray reporting from the sideline.

Costas, one of the longest tenured and most celebrated sportscasters, launched his national career with NBC in 1980. With a career spanning five decades, the 73-year-old has called every major sport, multiple Olympic games, and hosted his own sports-centered radio and television shows.

Collins, the NBA’s top draft pick in 1973, played his entire eight season career for the Philadelphia 76ers. He moved into coaching and served as head coach for four NBA teams – the Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, and 76ers – one per decade. Collins began calling games in the mid-80s and has continued as a color analyst when he is not serving as an NBA head coach or executive.

For this event, NBC is also bringing on Hannah Storm, Isiah Thomas and P.J. Carlesimo for a throwback version of “NBA Showtime” starting an hour before the game broadcast. The game will be available on NBC and Peacock, check local listing s for exact presentations.

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Welcome to the Thread. Join in the conversation, start your own discussion, and share your thoughts. This is the Spurs community, your Spurs community. Thanks for being here.

Our community guidelines apply which should remind everyone to be cool, avoid personal attacks, not to troll and to watch the language.

The Phoenix Suns walked into Thursday night battered and bruised, injury report reading like a CVS grocery list that got out of hand. You glance across the floor, and there stand Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves. It’s a trio that makes you check the clock before tip-off and wonder how long the evening is about to feel.

And it felt long.

There were stretches where the offense stalled into a quiet panic as possessions dissolved into late-clock heaves. Phoenix could not buy a clean look for chunks of the night, and when they did, the rim treated them like strangers.

Being a fan does strange things to your brain. It turns you into a ritualist, a believer in invisible levers. On Thursday, I found mine.

My wife was behind me in the living room, puzzle board out, building a 1000-piece octopus with the calm of a surgeon. The Suns were down 10 in the third quarter, and she asked if she could put on music. Neil Diamond. Holly Holy filled the room.

The Suns started scoring.

Song Sung Blue. Another run. Cracklin Rosie. A three from Grayson Allen that felt pre-ordained. You Don’t Bring Me Flowers. Collin Gillespie rises and buries one from deep like he has been waiting for Neil to give him permission. You can break down the rotations. You can analyze the shot profile. You can talk about the 22 made three pointers, which is usually the recipe when half your firepower is in street clothes. All of that is fair.

I am giving Neil Diamond credit.

The rhythm shifted the moment his voice hit the speakers. The ball moved with purpose. The shots came in flow. The house felt different through a television screen and a living room octopus.

It was a big one for Phoenix. They are staring up at the Lakers in the standings, chasing ground, measuring margin. This win mattered. The fan base needed it. The offense has looked rough lately, heavy and unsure. Last night had those same ugly stretches.

They survived anyway. And it felt…so good, so good, so good!

Bright Side Baller Season Standings

Collin breaks into double digits, joining Devin Booker as the only two Suns to do so thus far this season.

Bright Side Baller Nominees

Game 60 against the Lakers. Here are your nominees:

Grayson Allen
28 points (9-of-24, 6-of-16 3PT), 1 rebound, 6 assists, 1 block, 1 turnover, -14 +/-

Collin Gillespie
21 points (7-of-13, 6-of-11 3PT), 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 2 turnovers, 0 +/-

Royce O’Neale
13 points (4-of-7, 3-of-6 3PT), 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 blocks, 2 turnovers, -4 +/-

Ryan Dunn
10 points (4-of-7, 2-of-3 3PT), 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 1 turnover, -20 +/-

Oso Ighodaro
8 points (4-of-5, 0-of-0 3PT), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 turnover, 0 +/-

Rasheer Fleming
8 points (3-of-5, 2-of-3 3PT), 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, +19 +/-

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Who you got?

In the near future I’ll be sharing a series of polls discussing matchups of former GSW players who are draft picks during the Two-Timelines era. This concept wasn’t seeded by stats or hindsight. This was seeded by emotional gravity: draft expectations, peak belief, and how long you kept hoping. Pure feelings.

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Kevin Durant left in the summer of 2019. That moment didn’t end a dynasty as many feared (or desperately desired from jealous fanbases outside of the Golden Empire), but it did start a new hope.

Over the next six years, the Golden State Warriors drafted several players who became part of something complicated, beautiful, and occasionally heartbreaking. It was a project that became what fans came to call the “Two-Timelines” era. Some of these players won championship rings. Some made you grab the remote and turn the volume up. Some broke your heart slowly, over multiple seasons, in ways you didn’t fully process until they were already gone. And maybe some of them you knew were never gonna fit in with Stephen Curry and Steve Kerr, but you held out hope. Most of them are no longer here.

And we know for a fact that Dub Nation has the power to provide so much love and positive energy to the franchise that the players suddenly morph from “meh” into giant killers before your very eyes. So with that in mind, now it’s time to answer the question that actually matters. Not which of those ex-draft picks was the best, who had the highest PER, or the most efficient season.

The question is: which of those departed GSW picks were you secretly rooting for the most?

This bracket lives at the intersection of three things: how much was put on a player’s shoulders on draft night, how high your belief actually rose during their time here, and how long you kept the faith even when the evidence got complicated. There’s no hidden agenda (OR IS THERE??), just an honest accounting of how Warriors fans actually felt, in real time, about each of these players.

Eight players. Three rounds. One crown.

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THE OFFICIAL BRACKET

FIRST ROUND

1  Jordan Poole vs 8 Alen Smailagic

4  Eric Paschall vs 5 Trayce Jackson-Davis

2  James Wiseman vs 7 Ryan Rollins

3  Jonathan Kuminga vs 6 Patrick Baldwin Jr.

SEMIFINALS

W(1/8) vs W(4/5)

W(2/7) vs W(3/6)

CHAMPIONSHIP

So without further ado, here’s the bracket folks!

1. Jordan Poole

28th overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft

You remember exactly where you were when Jordan Poole started cooking in the 2022 playoffs. Don’t lie. You were on your feet, screaming at the TV. This was supposed to be the guy who eventually took the keys from Steph and kept the dynasty breathing. Young, filthy with the ball in his hands, shimmy already loaded and ready to deploy on whoever was unfortunate enough to be guarding him. The Bay had already written the next chapter in its head. Jordan Poole was going to be here forever.

Then Draymond threw a punch and the universe shifted.

But before all of that — before Washington, before the struggles, before everything — Jordan Poole was EVERYBODY’S guy. And the emotional peak of that belief, the moment when the whole fanbase collectively decided this kid was going to be GREAT here, is higher than anyone else in this bracket. That’s why he’s the 1 seed.

2. James Wiseman

2nd overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft

Close your eyes and remember draft night 2020. The No. 2 pick in the entire draft. Seven feet tall. Hands like a point guard. A shot-blocking presence that made you dizzy just watching the highlights. The Warriors had just survived the worst season in franchise history and the basketball gods handed them James Wiseman as a reward. The rebuild was supposed to start right there. This was the guy who was going to anchor the next decade while Steph showed him everything he knew.

What followed was a torn meniscus, a lost season, flashes of brilliance in 12-minute bursts, and eventually a trade to Detroit that the fanbase processed in silence because nobody quite knew what to say.

Wiseman’s gravitational pull on draft night was enormous. Nobody in this bracket carried more expectation in that moment. Nobody. That earns him the 2 seed, and it isn’t particularly close.

3. Jonathan Kuminga

7th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft

Five years. Five years of “this is finally his season.” Five years of scoring rampages that had you ready to anoint him the next face of the franchise, followed by inexplicable DNPs that had you arguing with strangers on Twitter at midnight. Kuminga was the most complicated relationship Warriors fans had with any player in this era. Talent was never the question. It was always right there.

He had a real playoff run in 2025 that had the whole fanbase ready to crown him. Then they traded him to Atlanta anyway. And now he’s out there balling like he has something to prove, which means the feelings aren’t even past tense yet.

Five years of hope with a motor still running. That’s the 3 seed.

4. Eric Paschall

41st overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft

Did anybody see Eric Paschall coming? He was a second-rounder out of Villanova on a Warriors team that won 15 games, playing in empty arenas during a pandemic season that felt like the whole world was falling apart. And somehow, impossibly, this man made that team fun to watch. Scoring 14 points a night off the bench, bouncing around the court with an energy that felt almost defiant given the circumstances, he made Warriors fans feel something they hadn’t felt in two years: genuine excitement about a new player in the present tense.

The Paschall window was short. The love was real. That’s the 4 seed.

5. Trayce Jackson-Davis

57th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft

Nobody expected Trayce Jackson-Davis to be good. He was the 57th pick, the second-to-last selection in the entire draft. A four-year college big man who was supposedly too slow and too limited to survive in the modern NBA. And then he showed up at Chase Center and immediately looked like he’d been running pick-and-rolls with Stephen Curry his entire life. The screen IQ. The roll timing. The finishing around the rim with both hands. Warriors fans started falling for TJD almost immediately, quietly, the way you fall for a player before you’ve consciously decided to root for him.

Then they traded him to Toronto and the whole fanbase had to process what could have been.

The 5 seed for a 57th pick who could jump out the gym.

6. Patrick Baldwin Jr.

28th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft

Patrick Baldwin Jr. arrived with a first-round pedigree, a 6’9″ frame, a shooting touch that looked effortless in warmups, and an energy that made you want to root for him before he played a single meaningful minute. He never really got the chance. Thirty-one games. 3.9 points per game. Minutes so sparse you had to check the box score twice to confirm he was even in the building. Warriors fans kept the hope alive far longer than the evidence warranted because you genuinely liked the kid and wanted the situation to be different.

It never got different. It just ended.

The 6 seed is a love letter to everyone who kept checking the rotation looking for his name.

7. Ryan Rollins

44th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft

Ryan Rollins didn’t just leave Golden State. He got packaged into the Jordan Poole trade and shipped to Washington before he ever got a real chance to show what he could do. Most players in that situation disappear quietly. Rollins did not. He came back to Chase Center, looked the Warriors dead in the eye, and lit them up in a revenge game that nobody who watched it will forget. That’s not just athleticism. That’s a player who knew he was good enough and needed everybody else to catch up.

The 7 seed for the guy who made sure we remembered he existed. Respect.

8. Alen Smailagic

39th overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft (via draft-night trade)

Alen Smailagic was a teenage center from Serbia whom the Warriors acquired via trade on draft night 2019, and for approximately one Summer League he was going to be something. The flashes were there. The potential was visible in the way that potential is always visible in a 19-year-old who is still mostly a theory. He played 29 regular season games across two seasons and then was gone, leaving behind a small but passionate fanbase of people who watched those Summer League games and told themselves: okay, maybe.

The 8 seed belongs to every player who made us say okay, maybe. And to the people who said it about Smailagic specifically, this bracket is for you.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

These players were part of the Two-Timelines story but didn’t make the bracket. They deserve acknowledgment.

Nico Mannion — We wanted him to be the Italian Steph Curry.

Justinian Jessup — Drafted in 2020, played zero regular season games as a Warrior, carved out a career overseas.

ONE LAST THING

This bracket is not a trial. Nobody is being convicted of anything. Every single player on this list showed up, competed, and tried to make it work inside one of the most demanding basketball environments in the modern NBA. Some of them won championships doing it and others gave us moments we still talk about. All of them were, for at least one night, somebody’s favorite Warrior.

Keep an eye out as the matchups come out and get your vote out!

Connecticut’s 72-40 blowout of St. John’s in Wednesday's key Big East tilt puts the Huskies back atop the conference standings and onto the No. 1 line in our latest bracketology update.

On some nights, UConn looks like the best team in the country. That was the case on Wednesday, when its defense held the Red Storm to just 19.6% shooting from the field. St. John’s was outscored 31-14 in the second half and missed its final 24 attempts.

The win avenges one of UConn’s three losses, which includes Arizona and Creighton. Arizona, Michigan and Duke are also on the No. 1 line.

Starting Five: College basketball games to watch this weekend

College basketball coach changes: Live updates on who is out

The Huskies’ bump knocks Iowa State down a peg to a No. 2 seed. The Cyclones lost to Brigham Young last weekend but rebounded with a road win against Utah, which is tied for last place in the Big 12.

Alabama moves to a No. 4 on the back of a seven-game SEC winning streak highlighted by defeats of Auburn and Arkansas. Since the double-overtime loss in Tuscaloosa, the Razorbacks have topped Missouri and Texas A&M to climb to a No. 5.

There are 11 SEC teams in the field, led by defending national champion Florida on the No. 2 line. The conference sent a record 14 teams to last year’s tournament.

March Madness bracketology: NCAA Tournament projection

March Madness last four in

Indiana, Ohio State, Missouri, Santa Clara.

March Madness first four out

Southern California, California, Virginia Commonwealth, San Diego State.

NCAA tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: SEC (11), Big Ten (10), ACC (8) Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3).

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness predictions: Bracketology forecast for NCAA Tournament

As February turns to March and the men’s college basketball season winds toward its conclusion, there are plenty of high-stakes offerings on this weekend’s schedule for your viewing enjoyment. We can’t promise two top-five clashes like we had last week in this space, but the slate makes up for that in quantity with no fewer than a half dozen USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll Top 25 showdowns over the course of the weekend.

That lineup begins Friday night in the Big Ten and continues into a Saturday marathon that opens with a first-place showdown in the ACC and also features a doubleheader in the SEC.

BRACKETOLOGY:A new No. 1 seed emerges in March Madness projection

Without further ado then, let’s get to this week’s Starting Five – plus a few coming in off the bench.

No. 3 Michigan at No. 11 Illinois

Time/TV: Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox.

The Wolverines are three games clear in the Big Ten race entering the regular season’s penultimate weekend, and in all likelihood they’ve already done enough to merit a No. 1 NCAA regional seed. The Fighting Illini’s recent run of tough overtime losses cost them both of those goals, but a win here would provide a huge confidence boost heading into March. The good news for Brad Underwood’s squad is Illinois is one of the few teams with the frontcourt strength and depth to match up with the Wolverines. The Illini also have more reliable perimeter shooting, thanks mainly to Keaton Wagler, but Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau shook off his rough outing against Duke with a more accurate night against Minnesota.

No. 12 Virginia at No. 1 Duke

Time/TV: Saturday, noon ET, ESPN.

It's a surprising fight for the top position in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Blue Devils of course were expected to be in this position in the ACC. The new-look Cavaliers were more of a mystery at the start of the season but have meshed together well in Ryan Odom’s initial campaign. Duke’s Cameron Boozer is the odds-on favorite to be named league player of the year, but UVa’s Thijs De Ridder has a strong case for all-conference accolades putting up 16.0 points and 6.3 rebounds a game.

No. 14 Kansas at No. 2 Arizona

Time/TV: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN.

The Wildcats shook off their recent two-game skid and have retaken control of the crowded Big 12. The wildly inconsistent Jayhawks go for a rare season sweep of Arizona, but leaving the McKale Center with a win is never easy. KU’s defensive effort against Houston in its most recent outing was arguably its best of the season, and Flory Bidunga and the rest of the Jayhawks will have to be just as connected to handle the Wildcats’ numerous offensive threats. Arizona will still likely be without Koa Peat due to a leg injury, but Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley are also capable of taking over a game.

No. 16 Texas Tech at No. 5 Iowa State

Time/TV: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS.

Elsewhere in the Big 12, the Cyclones look to add to their collection of quality home-court victories and stay in the hunt for a No. 1 NCAA seed. The game is no less important for the Red Raiders, who need to show they can still compete for a championship despite losing their best player. With J.T. Toppin sidelined, Texas Tech has relied more on long-range scoring from Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell, but LeJuan Watts has also stepped up to help on the glass. Iowa State can get points in a variety of ways but is at its best when the ball finds Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson close to the bucket.

No. 18 Alabama at No. 22 Tennessee

Time/TV: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN.

In truth these SEC contenders are more than likely playing for second place in the league at best, but securing a top-four seed in the upcoming conference tournament is an important priority. That became a concern for the Volunteers with their midweek loss at Missouri. Usually their solid team defense would give them an excellent chance to successfully defend their home court, but they need to find Crimson Tide sharpshooters Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway quickly. While it might appear at times that defense is optional for Alabama, the Tide at least need to limit second-chance opportunities for Vols standout freshman Nate Ament.

Villanova at No. 15 St. John’s

Time/TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox.

The Red Storm must put Wednesday night’s dismantling at the hands of Connecticut behind them quickly as they return home to the more friendly environs of Madison Square Garden. But the game is just as vital for the Wildcats, whose March staying power remains very much in question. St. John’s desperately needs a fast start to erase the memory of the 0-for-24 finish at UConn, which will likely mean getting Zuby Ejiofor involved early. Villanova will need Duke Brennan to hold his own on the boards and stay out of foul trouble.

No. 17 Arkansas at No. 7 Florida

Time/TV: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

The Gators look to run their winning streak to nine and in the process lock up the SEC regular-season title. The Razorbacks must win in Gainesville then get some help in order to catch Florida, but they're also looking to continue the momentum of five wins in six games. The presence of Darius Acuff gives Arkansas a shot in every game, howevert the improved production from the Gators guard tandem of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland has raised the team’s ceiling considerably.

No. 9 Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s

Time/TV: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

The day concludes with a final edition of West Coast Conference after dark, though there will probably be yet another encounter between these long-time league rivals in a little over a week before Gonzaga departs for the new Pac-12. Gonzaga has the top seed clinched, but the Gaels would nevertheless like to leave the Zags with one last impression of their Moraga, California, campus before the programs part ways. Graham Ike and the rest of Gonzaga’s veteran lineup won’t be rattled by a hostile student section, but the Saint Mary’s interior defense of Andrew McKeever and Paulius Murauskas could prove more difficult to solve.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College basketball schedule for weekend has March Madness implications

It’s time for a meeting.

All stakeholders of the Boston Celtics — the optimists, the skeptics, the doom-scrollers, the “I told you so’s, the ones who check box scores with breakfast — please take your seats.

We’ve reached late February, meaning there’s a big enough sample size in front of us that it’s worth taking stock of what we have. At a high level, the Celtics look structurally sound in the areas that usually matter when games slow down and whistles tighten in the playoffs.

As emotionally-invested stakeholders in the Boston Celtics, we’re allowed to dream. But we also owe it to ourselves to do a little due diligence. Fortunately, history gives us a blueprint for success. Over the last two decades, championship teams have tended to share similar statistical markers — strong records, dominant possession margins, top-tier defenses, and elite talent at the top.

So, that’s what we’re going to measure.

We’ll walk through the key pillars that usually define a real contender, stack this year’s Celtics up against those benchmarks, and decide whether what we’re watching is sturdy enough to hold up when the games really matter.

I. The Record & Net Rating Audit

The champions’ benchmarks

• .634+ win percentage
• Top 7 overall record
• Top 8 net rating
• +4.0 or better point differential (per 100 possessions)

2026 Celtics snapshot

• 38–20 (.655) | 4th overall record
• +7.6 net rating (4th) | +6.95 point differential per game
• 18–13 vs .500+ teams | 18–9 at home

What the numbers mean

This season was pre-packaged with a “please be patient” label.

The roster churn was predictable. In today’s NBA, the cap math always shows up eventually. Fans braced for an identity transplant. How could you not after losing five key rotation players without obvious replacements?

The Celtics’ response? Allow me to reintroduce myself.

Still wild to consider the company this year's Celtics have bulled their way into… pic.twitter.com/DlrfR9Hges

— Sean Grande (@SeanGrandePBP) February 25, 2026

Their success is what the overall record captures, and the net rating confirms it. A +7.6 net rating over nearly 60 games usually belongs to teams with a clear system and a clear sense of themselves. Boston has done it while mixing lineups constantly, asking young guys to play significant minutes, and still landing in the same place most nights: ahead on the scoreboard, dominating the margins, and looking down, not up, in the standings.

Yes, they missed the 40–20 stamp of approval. For context, since the 1979-80 NBA season, 41 of the last 45 champions won their 40th game before losing their 20th.

But that rule is less prophecy and more math trick, another way of identifying teams on a mid-to-high 50s win trajectory. The 2021–22 Celtics are a reminder of that. That group started 16–19, sat at 34–26 through 60 games, and never came close to clearing Phil’s threshold. They still finished 51–31, swept Brooklyn, survived seven-game battles with Milwaukee and Miami, and reached the NBA Finals.

Momentum, structure, and health matter more than the order in which the wins arrive. Boston’s current pace and efficiency margins still place them in the same statistical neighborhood as teams that typically contend, regardless of whether they crossed the 40-win line on game 59 or 61.

If this run were purely the product of a hot shooting stretch or clutch time anomalies, the overall profile would wobble. Instead, Boston’s success shows up in the possession math and keeps showing up regardless of who’s available on any given night.

The Verdict: The win profile matches the contender blueprint, and the process behind it looks repeatable.

II. The Defense Audit

The champions’ benchmarks

• Top-11 defensive rating
• Top-13 opponent effective FG%

2026 Celtics snapshot

• 111.9 defensive rating (7th)
• 109.8 defensive rating since Jan. 1 (3rd)
• 52.2% opponent eFG% (3rd)

What the numbers mean

Championship teams almost always pack a defense that travels. Boston checks that box.

Seventh in defensive rating and third in opponent effective field goal percentage tells you that teams are not getting easy math against them. The Celtics contest cleanly. They rotate with purpose. They’re willing to send help and live with the right shots rather than panic into fouls.

The trend line matters, too. Since Jan. 1, they’ve tightened the clamps even more, ranking third in defensive efficiency over that time period.

The identity this season — more movement, less watching, more stability, less frenetic scrambling — is woven into the texture of their defense. Switching and surviving is one thing. These Celtics are scouting, pre-rotating, and hunting tendencies on a nightly basis. When games slow down in May, you need a defense that understands details. Boston plays like a group that expects to know what’s coming.

The Celtics have allowed nearly 10 PPG fewer than any other NBA team in February. Their defense is on track for the lowest-scoring full month by any team in 8 years.

1. Boston – 96.7 opp pts
2. Detroit – 105.4
Houston – 105.4
4. Charlotte – 107.1
5. Toronto – 108.1 pic.twitter.com/EPZQXmVj0U

— Taylor Snow (@taylorcsnow) February 26, 2026

Are they perfect? No. The opponent 3-point percentage is middle of the pack. There will be nights when the late closeouts and overhelp bite them. But structurally, this looks like a defense built to survive playoff basketball.

The Verdict: The defensive foundation aligns with the championship template, and it’s trending in an even better direction.

III. The Offense Audit

The champions’ benchmarks

• Top-16 offensive rating (modern champs usually much higher)
• Top-15 effective FG%
• Reliable halfcourt efficiency
• Shooting that holds under pressure

2026 Celtics snapshot

• 119.5 offensive rating (4th)
• 54.9% eFG% (12th)
• 36.1% from three (12th)
• 42.4 3PA per game (2nd)
• 100.9 halfcourt offensive rating (5th)
• 111.2 clutch offensive rating (14th)

What the numbers mean

Offense is where the data gets noisy.

Some champions are historic scoring machines. Others just need to be good enough because their defense carries the load. What almost all of them share is that when the game slows down, they can manufacture clean looks in the halfcourt.

Boston’s overall offensive profile is strong. Fourth in offensive rating is no joke, but fifth in halfcourt efficiency is what might matter more down the stretch. Their 100.9 halfcourt offensive rating tells you the Celtics aren’t solely reliant on transition chaos or early-clock threes to build their leads. They can execute when possessions stretch deep into the shot clock.

The shot diet has changed, too.

This group still shoots a lot of threes, but they don’t seem to hunt them out at the same frequency they did in the previous two seasons. Jaylen Brown’s expanded freedom is showing up in the mid-range. Pritchard continues to hunt advantages created by coming off the bench. Vucevic is instantly providing a whole new kind of interior gravity. In other words, the offense feels less scripted and more read-based than it did two years ago.

That matters in the playoffs.

The one area that warrants a raised eyebrow is the clutch offense. Fourteenth in clutch offensive rating is fine, not dominant. It suggests this team still wins more through structure and margin than through late-game shot-making heroics.

Not disqualifying, but worth monitoring. The good news is that underlying math is strong, and the halfcourt foundation is legitimate. Those are the parts that tend to travel into May and beyond.

The Verdict: The offensive profile clears the historical bar, with enough half-court stability to project into playoff basketball. The late-game execution remains the swing factor, though.

IV. The Star Talent Audit

The champions’ benchmarks

• At least one top-15 player in the league
• An All-NBA level engine
• Preferably multiple high-end contributors

2026 Celtics snapshot

• Jaylen Brown:
  • 22.5 PER (19th)
  • +2.4 EPM
  • All-Star
  • All-NBA projection (likely 1st or 2nd Team)

What the numbers mean

This is the part where history may not be all that helpful, considering who might be on their way back soon. Data aside, it’s a good thing to have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on your basketball team.

Almost every champion of the modern era has had a player who lives in the top-10 conversation. This year, that responsibility has belonged to Brown.

The MVP buzz isn’t accidental. Brown has absorbed more defensive attention, expanded his shot profile, and carried scoring volume without the infrastructure this team leaned on in prior seasons. The mid-range freedom, the late-clock creation, the willingness to take tough shots when the plan breaks down.

That’s all nice to see in February, but it matters even more in May.

The advanced metrics for Brown may not scream top-five player in the league, but the impact shows up in how opponents guard Boston. He bends coverages, forces matchups, and dictates pace whenever he’s on the floor.

I’m proud of this group and staff/ office looking forward to 2nd half go Cs ☘️ pic.twitter.com/I0cqxQTPYg

— Jaylen Brown (@FCHWPO) February 13, 2026

The potential return of Jayson Tatum is not something we can model cleanly. It’s the ultimate unknown in this audit. What we can say is that the Celtics have built a contender profile without him.

If he returns and resembles himself, the ceiling changes immediately. That’s a powerful, albeit unpredictable, place to be.

The Verdict: The star engine is strong enough to qualify, with an upside variable that could shift the entire equation.

Final Assessment

Entering this season, the reasonable take was that Boston would recalibrate. Too much turnover. Too much youth. Too much money. A year to reset and regroup.

Instead, nearly three-quarters of the way through the season, they look like a team that fast-forwarded through the transitional phase and landed squarely back in a contention window.

The audit told us what we needed to know. The record aligns with past champions. The possession margins are strong. The defense travels. The offense holds up when the game slows down. And the star power — present and potentially expanding — clears the historical bar.

Of course, that doesn’t promise anything. But when the underlying structure matches the teams that usually matter in late spring, you stop asking whether it’s sustainable and start asking how dangerous it might be.

Meeting adjourned.