With the NBA playoffs just one month away, the Knicks find themselves firmly in the third seed in the Eastern Conference, 4.5 games behind the Celtics for second and 5.0 games ahead of the Bucks in fourth.
There’s plenty of uncertainty as to how they close out the season without Jalen Brunson, but barring an unforeseen disaster, they’re highly likely to end up matched up with the Bucks, Pacers, or Pistons in the first round.
Let’s dive into each of these potential opponents and see how they stack up against New York...
Bucks
The Bucks have failed to recapture their bonafide contender status since winning the 2021 NBA Finals, despite their blockbuster trade for Damian Lillard -- but their deadline deals for Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr. and former Knick Jericho Sims have given them a top-five defense since early February and a 10-6 record over that span.
They also boast the still-dominant Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s only lost his MVP sheen due to his team’s performance.
New York hasn’t played the new-look Bucks yet, but they have a meeting slated for late March after dusting them in a pair of blowouts earlier this season. The weaknesses displayed in those losses haven’t fully been addressed and New York is primed to take advantage in a potential first-round series.
Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 31 points in those wins, a stylistic nightmare for Milwaukee’s opposing center Brook Lopez. Lopez is a good defender, but he lacks the mobility to cover the space created by Towns and his ferocious driving game.
Expect them to hide Lopez on Josh Hart out of the gate and force Towns to find his spots against their wings -- a popular look that’s worked well for better teams. New York will have to get creative getting Hart involved in on-ball actions and be willing to sit him for a shooter in response.
Despite their high-level defense, the Bucks also don’t have a great individual answer for Jalen Brunson, who had a surgical 44 points on 26 shots during their last matchup. Milwaukee's guards are lacking defensively, so they will likely be hidden on New York’s wings OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, who will need to step up and take advantage offensively.
Brunson will see his fair share of Kuzma, Taurean Prince and Porter, consistent with how foes have guarded him using big wings during the regular season and last year’s playoffs. Fans shouldn’t doubt Brunson’s ability to figure them out one-on-one, but New York would be smart to emphasize his playmaking and other preferable assignments on the floor.
Even with the roster changes, New York measures up nicely with the Bucks. Their offense is average and not much improved since the trades -- it's a stilted and star-dependent system that the Knicks have the personnel to deal with.
They won’t kill New York on the offensive glass, but love to push the ball and can be dangerous if the Knicks let their role players get going. This feels akin to the 76ers series last year -- a star-heavy, tough but beatable matchup that doesn’t pose huge stylistic threats.
Pacers
New York is very familiar with Indiana, having been bounced by them in a seven game series in the second round last year.
But circumstances have changed dramatically since then -- half the Knicks were out due to injury/hurting during that series and the other half were largely traded/lost in the offseason. With that being said, the Pacers are still very much in line with last year’s version.
They boast a top-10 offense behind their engine, Tyrese Haliburton, and a much more comfortable Pascal Siakam, who is having an All-Star season. Benedict Mathurin missed the Knicks series but is healthy and having a career year, averaging 25.3 points in his three games against New York.
Indiana’s defense is at about league average -- a bump from last year but still their Achilles heel.
New York took two of three games against Indiana this season, including one on the road and a home-opener rout.
This one is more of a clash of approaches. The Pacers are top 10 in pace behind a young, athletic, high-scoring team. A potential series will come down to how well the Knicks can limit them to the half-court and keep them off the boards.
There shouldn’t be much new they can throw at Jalen Brunson when he has the ball in his hands, and he’s proven their individual defenders can’t hold him without help. One thing the Pacers did well was limit his high-efficiency looks -- threes and free throws -- but their attention should be a bit more divided with Towns in the picture.
Towns averaged 30.3 points in the three games against the Pacers this season, and should be expected to dominate his matchup with Myles Turner, who hurt the Knicks last season.
This series is definitely the most favorable to those who prefer narratives, with these two holding a long-time rivalry and the Knicks seeking revenge, and may arguably be the most favorable for a quick Knicks advance as well.
Pistons
The new kids on the block have made their mark, breaking out with a 37-30 record and top-10 defense. They’ve especially given the Knicks problems, up 2-1 in the season series with a final meeting scheduled in April.
It’s no surprise why -- Detroit is another young and athletic team as opposed to the older, slower Knicks, and they have strong depth off the bench. They’re a top-10 offensive rebounding team and are top-five on the other end, so New York needs to devote a lot of energy to the possession battle.
They also relentlessly attack Brunson defensively with their 6’6” former No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham, who just made his first All-Star team. In their two wins over New York, Cunningham put up a 29-point triple-double and a 36-point outburst, though the Knicks left plenty of adjustments off the table.
Cutting off the head of the snake is crucial to the Knicks in this series. The Pistons are somewhat limited in creation beyond Cunningham, with the onus falling on Jaden Ivey and a hodgepodge of reliable but more complementary veterans.
Those vets will help guide the young Pistons through their first playoff experience -- a huge factor in a potential series.
The postseason is an entirely different game, and the shift from the regular season can give new teams whiplash before they get a chance to adjust -- see the Cavaliers in 2023 or the Knicks in 2021.
One might think this isn’t relevant to a Knicks strategy against the Pistons in a series, but they lost these regular season games due to a lack of focus and execution. They committed an uncharacteristically large amount of turnovers that let the Detroit offense get running and punching above its weight.
If New York can limit those turnovers and show poise defensively and on the boards at a level the Pistons shouldn’t be accustomed to, this should be a confident series for them. However, they can’t underestimate them or it will be an embarrassing first-round out.
