Heat vs. Knicks Predictions: Odds, expert picks, recent stats, trends and best bets for March 17

It’s Monday, March 17, and the Miami Heat (29-38) and New York Knicks (42-24) are all set to square off from Madison Square Garden in New York.

The Heat are currently 13-21 on the road with a point differential of -1, while the Knicks have a 7-3 record in their last ten games at home. New York is 2-0 against Miami this season with a four-point OT win and nine-point victory.

Miami has lost seven straight games and eight of the past nine contests, while New York is 6-6 since the All-Star break and lost four of the previous six games. The Heat are coming off their second-worst loss of the season after losing to Memphis by 34 points on Saturday. Miami lost to Utah by 36 points earlier in the season and took Sacramento to 2 OT before losing by five the following game.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Heat vs. Knicks live today

  • Date: Monday, March 17, 2025
  • Time: 7:30PM EST
  • Site: Madison Square Garden
  • City: New York, NY
  • Network/Streaming: ESPN

Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day NBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.

Game odds for Heat vs. Knicks

The latest odds as of Monday:

  • Odds: Heat (+261), Knicks (-325)
  • Spread:  Knicks -7.5
  • Over/Under: 212 points

That gives the Heat an implied team point total of 104.96, and the Knicks 108.87.

Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports’ Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!

Expert picks & predictions for Monday’s Heat vs. Knicks game

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Heat to cover the +7.5:

"New York is 2-0 against Miami this season (1-1 ATS) with wins by four and nine, but I have my doubts here. While Miami is amid a seven-game losing streak and while the Heat are 0-5 ATS over the past five games, I like this spot for Miami as New York is coming back from the West Coast and without Jalen Brunson. It's Miami at +7.5 or pass for me coming off their second-worst loss of the season (34 point loss to Memphis in the last game). I wouldn't be shocked if Miami wins (+260)."

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Heat & Knicks game:

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the New York Knicks on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Miami Heat at +7.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 212.

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!

Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Heat vs. Knicks on Monday

  • The Heat have lost 4 straight road games
  • 8 of the Knicks' last 10 games (80%) have stayed under the Total
  • The Knicks have failed to cover the Spread in their last 6 matchups versus Eastern Conference teams
  • The Knicks have won 4 of their last 5 home games against Eastern Conference teams

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

Fantasy Basketball Week 20 Key Injuries

Week 20 marks the beginning of the playoffs in Yahoo! public and default leagues. And there are many availability issues for fantasy managers to sift through, whether it's legitimate injuries or teams looking to improve their draft lottery odds. Let's look at some key players whose statuses impact how managers approach Week 20.

PG/SG Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Curry is dealing with a right lower back strain and is considered questionable for the Warriors' March 17 matchup with the Nuggets. As a top-10 player, missing time due to the injury would significantly impact the Warriors' rotation and fantasy basketball. Multiple Warriors would see their fantasy values affected in this scenario. Buddy Hield (29 percent rostered, Yahoo!) may have the most to gain regarding fantasy value, as he could return to the starting lineup.

Moses Moody (15 percent), who has fared well as a starter, is another player who may pick up more scoring opportunities if Curry has to sit. Jimmy Butler isn't available on any waiver wire, but his usage would increase if the Warriors were to be without their top scorer. Lastly, Brandin Podziemski (59 percent) could return during Week 20, with Warriors coach Steve Kerr saying on Saturday that the team is targeting Tuesday (vs. MIL) for the second-year guard's return from a back strain.

SF/PF LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

James has missed the Lakers' last four games with a strained groin. On Sunday, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that the 40-year-old forward is expected to miss at least another week, so he won't be available for the Lakers' four-game Week 20 slate. James went through his first on-court workout since the injury before the March 16 win over the Suns, but the clear priority will be to ensure he's at full strength for the postseason. Dalton Knecht (25 percent) is worth a look in deeper points leagues, but the rookie has provided limited value in category leagues.

The good news from the win over Phoenix was that Jaxson Hayes (16 percent) returned from a knee contusion, playing 29 minutes and finishing with 19 points, six rebounds, three assists, one steal and one blocked shot. Whether or not Hayes will be available for the March 17 matchup with the Spurs is unknown, but the players with center eligibility to consider if he sits are Dorian Finney-Smith (seven percent) and Jarred Vanderbilt (six percent), but they may also have availability concerns for injury management reasons.

PG Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks

Brunson has missed the Knicks' last four games with a sprained ankle and will be re-evaluated toward the end of this week. However, fantasy managers should not expect to see the two-time All-Star on the court anytime soon, as ESPN's Charania reported on Saturday that a late-March or early April return for Brunson is most likely.

Miles McBride (30 percent) has been an 11th-round player in nine-cat formats since March 6 and is effectively the only player worth picking up with Brunson sidelined. The Knicks play four games during Week 20, starting with the Heat on Monday, and Miami is the only team with postseason ambitions that New York will face. A midweek road back-to-back against the Spurs and Hornets is followed by a home game against the Wizards, which will likely boost McBride's value if his shots are falling.

SG/SF/PF/C Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

J-Dub has missed Oklahoma City's last three games with a hip injury and does not have a concrete timeline for return. Given how far ahead of the pack the Thunder are in the West and how well the team has played without Williams, there's no reason for him to rush a return. Aaron Wiggins (19 percent) played 19 minutes off the bench in Oklahoma City's March 16 win over the Bucks, while Cason Wallace (26 percent) logged 27 minutes as a starter.

Wiggins started the first game Williams missed, a win over the Celtics in Boston, while Kenrich Williams (zero percent) filled the void in wins over the Pistons and Bucks. Wallace, a top 100 player since the All-Star break, and Wiggins are the players to target, with Isaiah Joe (three percent) having value among deep-league managers targeting three-point production specifically.

PG/SG Derrick White and SG/SF Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

White sat out the Celtics' win over the Nets on March 15 with a knee contusion, while Brown was forced to exit during the second half with back spasms. The Celtics were also without Al Horford in Brooklyn, but his absence was expected since that was the second game of a back-to-back. The good news for Boston was that Kristaps Porzingis returned from an illness that sidelined him for eight games, playing 32 minutes and finishing with 24 points. He only grabbed two rebounds and shot 1-of-7 from three, but simply seeing Porzingis on the court was a fantastic development for the Celtics and fantasy managers.

As for what managers should do if White and Brown aren't available for the start of Boston's three-game Week 20 slate, Payton Pritchard (53 percent) always has added value when the team is down a starter. Sam Hauser (two percent) will be worth a look if White and Brown remain out, but he's behind Horford (31 percent) in the pecking order when there are spaces in the starting lineup to fill.

PG/SG De'Aaron Fox, San Antonio Spurs

With it being announced on March 13 that Fox will undergo season-ending surgery on a pinkie finger that has been problematic since the start of the season, the Spurs had a void to fill in their starting lineup. As expected, rookie Stephon Castle (54 percent) received the nod, and in starts against the Hornets and Pelicans, he accumulated 43 points, four rebounds, eight assists, two steals, one block and three three-pointers. Castle struggled with his shot against New Orleans but dished out seven assists in the four-point victory. While he hasn't been the best category league asset, Castle's ceiling is raised with Fox out for the rest of the season.

Fox's absence may not directly impact Keldon Johnson (35 percent), but he has provided 10th-round value since the All-Star break. Devin Vassell isn't available in most leagues, but Johnson may be worth a look for managers seeking a player who has performed well and has a good schedule. San Antonio plays four games without a back-to-back during Week 20, starting with the Lakers on Monday.

PG/SG/SF Josh Giddey and PG/SG Lonzo Ball, Chicago Bulls

Giddey has missed the Bulls' last two games with a sprained ankle and appears unlikely to be available for a March 17 matchup with the Jazz (he's listed as doubtful). His absence opened up a place in the starting lineup for Kevin Huerter (11 percent), who recorded 27 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists, one steal and three three-pointers in starts against the Nets and Rockets. Red Velvet shot 3-of-14 from three in those games, but the rebounds and assists were solid. He's worth streaming as long as Giddey remains sidelined.

As for Ball, he has missed Chicago's last seven games with a sprained right wrist. On Saturday, Bulls coach Billy Donovan said that Ball is not being shut down for the rest of the season, but there is no timeline for return, and there are no plans for offseason surgery. This is the same wrist Ball injured before the season began, costing him 15 games. Tre Jones (21 percent) has been Lonzo's replacement in the starting lineup and is worth holding onto in deeper leagues. He'll provide points and assists while keeping the turnovers to a minimum.

PF/C John Collins, Utah Jazz

Collins was diagnosed with a left lateral ankle sprain on March 13 and will miss at least two weeks. He did not play in games against the Raptors (March 14) and Timberwolves (March 16) and will not be available for Week 20. Given the timeline for Collins's re-evaluation, he's unlikely to help fantasy managers during the playoff weeks. Given the uncertain availability of fellow starters Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, now would be a good time for fantasy managers to roll the dice on Utah's low-rostered players. Kyle Filipowski (36 percent) and Isaiah Collier (32 percent) are at the top of the list, followed by Brice Sensabaugh (10 percent). Managers can afford to take a more conservative approach with Johnny Juzang (one percent), KJ Martin (one percent) and Cody Williams (zero percent).

PG/SG/SF Bradley Beal, Phoenix Suns

Beal exited the Suns' March 16 loss to the Lakers due to left hamstring tightness. While the expectation may have been that Tyus Jones (61 percent) would fill the void, Collin Gillespie (zero percent) started the third quarter. He shot 1-of-7 from the field, finishing with three points, seven rebounds, three assists and one three-pointer in 23 minutes. Gillespie doesn't need to be added, while Jones isn't a player who shallow-league managers should rush to grab. Keep an eye on Ryan Dunn (one percent), who has provided minimal fantasy value since the All-Star break. However, in starts against the Kings and Lakers, he accounted for 29 points, eight rebounds, four assists, seven steals, two blocks and four three-pointers. It would be him if anyone is worth a dice roll for Phoenix's three-game week, especially in category leagues.

SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, Miami Heat

Wiggins only played 22 minutes in Miami's March 15 loss to the Grizzlies, and he was listed on the injury report as questionable for the March 17 game against the Knicks. The lower left leg contusion is a new injury for the Heat forward, who missed five games with a sprained ankle to begin the month. The potential replacements aren't all that appealing from a fantasy standpoint, as Jaime Jaquez Jr. (nine percent) and Pelle Larsson (zero percent) are both ranked outside the top 350 (yes, 350) in nine-cat formats since the All-Star break. If anything, Wiggins' undetermined status is an opportunity to seek Kel'el Ware (41 percent), who tallied 19 points, 11 rebounds and two three-pointers against the Grizzlies. While the rookie's production tapered off before that performance, there's more to gain from rostering him than Jaquez, Larsson or Duncan Robinson (12 percent).

SG/SF Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets

Due to a hamstring injury, Thomas will not play again this season. While the personnel hit the Nets take isn't good, his absence opens up a spot in the starting lineup. Ziaire Williams (16 percent) and Keon Johnson (17 percent) are the first players to target, but the former is dealing with a sore Achilles tendon. Field goal percentage has been an issue for Johnson, but he shot 8-of-15 from the field and scored 21 points with five three-pointers against the reigning champs in his most recent outing. Also worth watching moving forward is center Day'Ron Sharpe (16 percent), who has the most to gain if the Nets decide to sit Nic Claxton. Sharpe grabbed 16 rebounds and dished out five assists against the Celtics, and has provided top-100 value in nine-cat formats since the All-Star break.

PG Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic

Anthony (17 percent) played six minutes off the bench in Orlando's March 16 win over the Cavaliers before aggravating a toe injury that sidelined him for two games. Anthony hobbling off the court was troubling for a team that is already without Jalen Suggs for the rest of the season. Cory Joseph (zero percent) has started the last three games but has provided limited fantasy value, tallying 23 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists, four steals and three three-pointers total in those starts. Anthony Black (three percent) hasn't provided much value either, so fantasy managers don't have a player to target in Orlando if Anthony misses more time. The ball will be in the hands of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner even more, and those players are sitting on waiver wires at this stage in the season.

SG/SF Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards

Coulibaly injured his right hamstring on a nasty fall taken during the Wizards' March 10 loss to the Raptors. With the Wizards providing a four to six-week timeline, the second-year wing won't be able to help fantasy managers again this season. Justin Champagnie (26 percent) was Coulibaly's replacement in the starting lineup and has been solid, providing 11th-round value since the All-Star break. However, Kyshawn George (29 percent) is the player to target, even with his shooting struggles. Despite making 37.3 percent of his attempts from the field since the All-Star break, the rookie wing has provided sixth-round value due to the rebounding, three-pointers and defensive production. And availability should not be an issue for George or Champagnie the rest of the season, as the Wizards have prioritized their younger players.

Warriors face tough test in daunting back-to-back vs. Nuggets, Bucks

Warriors face tough test in daunting back-to-back vs. Nuggets, Bucks originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

SAN FRANCISCO – With less than a month remaining in the 2024-25 NBA regular season, the Warriors have three back-to-backs left to get through.

Their final one is a flight to Phoenix, followed by a home game against the San Antonio Spurs the next day on April 9. The week before, the Warriors play the Lakers in Los Angeles to finish a six-game road trip and then play the Denver Nuggets the next day back at home. First, they will have to take care of business on Monday and Tuesday against the Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks at Chase Center, in that order. 

One game at a time. As the Warriors came home from a 4-1 five-game road trip to play seven consecutive games at home, three games stood out more than the rest. Playing the New York Knicks, Nuggets and Bucks – three games in four days against three of the better teams in the NBA – wasn’t going to be easy. But the Warriors continue to be a rejuvenated machine since Jimmy Butler’s arrival.

Golden State extended its win streak to six in a row by beginning the homestand with wins over the Detroit Pistons, Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings, then withstood a rock fight of a win over the Knicks to make it seven in a row. Now comes the daunting task of the back-to-back. 

“We’re on a good run, but we know exactly what’s happening,” Steve Kerr said after the Warriors’ win Saturday night. “Nobody else is losing behind us. We’ve got to keep fighting and keep winning. We can’t stop and look around. We’ve got to just continue to improve and we’ll see what happens in the end. 

“We know everybody is playing well. The West is just loaded.” 

While the No. 6-seeded Warriors have enjoyed a seven-game win streak, the Minnesota Timberwolves (40-29), tied with the Warriors in the standings but one spot behind them because of the tiebreaker, are on an eight-game win streak. The LA Clippers (38-30) only are 1.5 games behind the Warriors and Timberwolves and now are on a three-game win streak. 

However, the Warriors on Monday night hope to end a win streak. Not of their own, but of the Nuggets’ own against them. 

The last time the Warriors beat the Nuggets was April 27, 2022 in Game 5 of the first round of the playoffs. The last regular-season game the Warriors beat the Nuggets was more than three years ago on March 10, 2022. These two teams looked a lot different back then. 

Draymond Green still was out due to injury, and Gary Payton II also was sidelined. The Nuggets were hit even harder. 

Jamal Murray missed that entire season. Michael Porter Jr. missed the entire season after playing the first nine games. Bones Hyland, now a fringe NBA player at best, was the Nuggets’ leading scorer off the bench. How far back does Denver’s win streak go against Golden State? 

The Nuggets’ second-leading scorer off the bench that game was DeMarcus Cousins in his final NBA season. 

What the Warriors have done recently is control the controllables. Wins have come in multiple ways. Some against teams higher in the standings, more often than not against teams lower in the standings in a softer portion of the schedule. Most teams have been without at least one star, like the Knicks not having Karl-Anthony Towns against them on March 4, only to be without Jalen Brunson in San Francisco 11 days later. 

Both the Warriors and Nuggets have question marks on Monday night’s injury report. Steph Curry (back) and Quinten Post (right ankle) are questionable. Brandin Podziemski is expected to make his return from lower back soreness Tuesday night against the Bucks after missing five games. Nikola Jokić (right elbow, left ankle), Murray (right ankle) and Aaron Gordon (right calf, left ankle) all are questionable. 

Looking to bounce back from a loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Bucks should be at full strength, five weeks after being down Giannis Antetokounmpo when they lost to the Warriors in Milwaukee.

Outlasting the Knicks was a perfect example of how much every small detail matters against teams that have championship aspirations. The same mentality will have to carry over to survive the Nuggets and Bucks on the Warriors’ home court over a 24-hour span. 

“The shot making wasn’t there,” Green said Saturday night. “It just wasn’t there for us. So all those other small things matter. Sometimes the shot making can bail you out of some stuff. That’s just kind of the way it goes, especially when you play with Steph Curry. He’ll bail you out fast. 

“It wasn’t there for us, and we still found a way. We still did everything we needed to do to ultimately come out with the win. You got to be able to win games like that, and we did.” 

The Joker is in a heated battle to become the sixth player ever to win four MVPs. Giannis is the forgotten one in the MVP race, averaging 30.4 points, 12.1 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. The Warriors have the second-best defensive rating in the league since Butler’s team debut. They were turnover-happy in their previous five wins before playing the Knicks, responding by having 11 turnovers – nine without two shot clock violations – that resulted in eight points.

At a time when the Timberwolves play the Pacers on Monday night and then face the New Orleans Pelicans in two straight games, wins over the Nuggets and Bucks would be huge for the Warriors. It’s what can keep them out of the play-in tournament as they climb up the Western Conference standings. There also is more to this than just the final score.

How they handle adversity, how every possession is full of intent against the Nuggets and Bucks, like they did to beat the Knicks, is what the Warriors can lean on moving forward to complete their three toughest games since bringing Butler into the fold.

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San Diego State Aztecs square off against the North Carolina Tar Heels in First 4

North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13, 15-8 ACC) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (21-9, 14-7 MWC) Dayton, Ohio; Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. EDT BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Tar Heels -3.5; over/under is 142.5 BOTTOM LINE: San Diego State plays North Carolina in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs' record in MWC games is 14-7, and their record is 7-2 against non-conference opponents.

Oklahoma State squares off against Wichita State in NIT matchup

Wichita State Shockers (19-14, 9-11 AAC) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (15-17, 7-14 Big 12) Stillwater, Oklahoma; Tuesday, 9 p.m. EDT BOTTOM LINE: Oklahoma State and Wichita State meet in the National Invitation Tournament. The Cowboys are 7-14 against Big 12 opponents and 8-3 in non-conference play.

Alabama State Hornets and Saint Francis (PA) Red Flash play in the First 4

Saint Francis (PA) Red Flash (16-17, 11-8 NEC) vs. Alabama State Hornets (19-15, 15-6 SWAC) Dayton, Ohio; Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Hornets -3.5; over/under is 141.5 BOTTOM LINE: Alabama State and Saint Francis (PA) play in the NCAA Tournament First Four round. The Hornets are 15-6 against SWAC opponents and 4-9 in non-conference play.