Predicting every Men's NCAA tournament game using AI

For some college basketball fans, filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket can be a gradual process. Initial picks are made on Selection Sunday, and then they're adjusted as the week progresses, with deliberation about certain teams and games occurring right up until first-round action officially begins on Thursday, March 19.

This might be what's happening to artificial intelligence as well. After USA TODAY Sports initially asked Microsoft Copilot's AI chatbot to run a simulation of every game in the Men's NCAA Tournament bracket on Selection Sunday, another attempt three days later produced the same champion, a mostly chalk Final Four and several additional upsets.

Houston remains Microsoft Copilot's pick to emerge as the national champion in 2026 and it projects as the only non-No. 1 seed to make the Final Four, according to this simulation. However, AI did predict six double-digit seeds to pull off upsets and advance past the first round this year. That's five more than what it projected on Selection Sunday.

Here's a complete look at how Microsoft Copilot's AI chatbot predicted every game in the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament bracket:

March Madness predictions: AI simulation of every 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament game

USA TODAY Sports asked Microsoft Copilot's AI chatbot to pick the winner of every game in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket based on team's strengths and weaknesses, several advanced metric models, the latest upset projections and expert analysis on each matchup.

First Four

First Round

East region

  • No. 1 seed Duke beats No. 16 seed Siena
  • No. 8 seed Ohio State beats No. 9 seed TCU
  • No. 5 seed Vanderbilt beats No. 12 seed McNeese
  • No. 4 seed Kansas beats No. 13 seed California Baptist
  • No. 6 seed Louisville beats No. 11 seed South Florida
  • No. 3 seed Michigan State beats No. 14 seed North Dakota State
  • No. 10 seed Texas A&M beats No. 7 seed Saint Mary's
  • No. 2 seed UConn beats No. 15 seed Furman

South region

  • No. 1 seed Florida beats No. 16 seed Lehigh
  • No. 8 seed Clemson beats No. 9 seed Iowa
  • No. 5 seed St. John's beats No. 12 seed Northern Iowa
  • No. 4 seed Nebraska beats No. 13 seed Troy
  • No. 6 seed North Carolina beats No. 11 seed VCU
  • No. 14 seed Penn beats No. 3 seed Illinois
  • No. 10 seed UCF beats No. 7 seed UCLA
  • No. 2 seed Houston beats No. 15 seed Idaho

Midwest region

  • No. 1 seed Michigan beats No. 16 seed Howard
  • No. 8 seed Georgia beats No. 9 seed Saint Louis
  • No. 5 seed Texas Tech beats No. 12 Akron
  • No. 4 seed Alabama beats No. 13 seed Hofstra
  • No. 6 seed Tennessee beats No. 11 seed SMU
  • No. 3 seed Virginia beats No. 14 seed Wright State
  • No. 10 seed Santa Clara beats No. 7 seed Kentucky
  • No. 2 seed Iowa State beats No. 15 seed Tennessee State

West region

  • No. 1 seed Arizona beats No. 16 seed Long Island
  • No. 8 seed Villanova beats No. 9 seed Utah State
  • No. 12 seed High Point beats No. 5 seed Wisconsin
  • No. 4 seed Arkansas beats No. 13 seed Hawaii
  • No. 6 seed BYU beats No. 11 seed Texas
  • No. 3 seed Gonzaga beats No. 14 seed Kennesaw State
  • No. 10 seed Missouri beats No. 7 seed Miami
  • No. 2 seed Purdue beats No. 15 seed Queens

Second Round

East region

  • No. 1 seed Duke beats No. 8 seed Ohio State
  • No. 4 seed Kansas beats No. 5 seed St. John's
  • No. 3 seed Michigan State beats No. 6 seed Louisville
  • No. 2 seed UConn beats No. 10 seed Texas A&M

South region

  • No. 1 seed Florida beats No. 8 seed Clemson
  • No. 4 seed Nebraska beats No. 5 seed Vanderbilt
  • No. 6 seed North Carolina beats No. 14 seed Penn
  • No. 2 seed Houston beats No. 10 seed Texas A&M

Midwest region

  • No. 1 seed Michigan beats No. 8 seed Georgia
  • No. 4 seed Alabama beats No. 5 seed Texas Tech
  • No. 6 seed Tennessee beats No. 3 seed Virginia
  • No. 2 seed Iowa State beats No. 10 seed Santa Clara

West region

  • No. 1 seed Arizona beats No. 8 seed Villanova
  • No. 4 seed Arkansas beats No. 12 seed High Point
  • No. 3 seed Gonzaga beats No. 6 seed BYU
  • No. 2 seed Purdue beats No. 10 seed Missouri

Sweet 16

East region

  • No. 1 seed Duke beats No. 4 seed Kansas
  • No. 2 seed UConn beats No. 3 seed Michigan State

South region

  • No. 1 seed Florida beats No. 4 seed Nebraska
  • No. 2 seed Houston beats No. 6 seed North Carolina

Midwest region

  • No. 1 seed Michigan beats No. 4 seed Alabama
  • No. 2 seed Iowa State beats No. 6 seed Tennessee

West region

  • No. 1 seed Arizona beats No. 4 seed Arkansas
  • No. 2 seed Purdue beats No. 3 seed Gonzaga

Elite Eight

  • East region: No. 1 seed Duke beats No. 2 seed UConn
  • South region: No. 2 seed Houston beats No. 1 seed Florida
  • Midwest region: No. 1 seed Michigan beats No. 2 seed Iowa State
  • West region: No. 1 seed Arizona beats No. 2 seed Purdue

Final Four

  • No. 1 seed Arizona beats No. 1 seed Michigan
  • No. 2 seed Houston beats No. 1 seed Duke

National championship game

  • No. 2 seed Houston beats No. 1 seed Arizona

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness AI predictions: Men's bracket winner, best upset picks

Watch Alex Caruso pick up a technical for defending with his shoe in his hand

Alex Caruso made another high-effort defensive play, but he got a technical for it on Tuesday night.

Because he did it by swinging a shoe in his hand.

Good on Caruso for sticking with the play when his shoe came off, but you can't use it as a tool. That's a tech. And Tristan da Silva was automatically awarded two points on the play.

As for the game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 40 points on the Orlando Magic 113-108 Tuesday night, and Oklahoma City picked up its 10th straight win, securing a playoff spot. Chet Holmgren had 20 points and 12 rebounds for the Thunder, while Ajay Mitchell added 16 points.

Celtics star Jayson Tatum leaned on family during his Achilles rehab

Jayson Tatum leaned on family during one of the toughest times in his career.

The Boston Celtics' six-time All-Star’s right Achilles tendon ruptured during Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Knicks on May 12, 2025.

Tatum mentioned that he stayed at his mom’s house during a part of his recovery.

"She’s set a good foundation for my life and helped me become the basketball player that I am," Tatum told USA TODAY. "To have her be a part of the off-the-court things that I'm doing is important."

His injury kept him away from live-game action for nearly 300 days before he was cleared and ready to return.

His mom recently joined him in a March Madness commercial for AT&T. The commercial showed Tatum on a video call with his mother while a small child, meant to play the role of his son Deuce, dunks on a toy basketball hoop for the first time.

"It was all about sharing special moments with my family," Tatum said, "I think it went really well."

The commercial also allowed him to reflect on his first time he was able to dunk a basketball during a middle school game in St. Louis.

In his return to NBA action, Tatum recorded a double-double in his season debut as the Celtics earned a 120-100 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on March 6.

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) dribbles against Phoenix Suns forward Oso Ighodaro (11) during the second half at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on March 16, 2026.

His first dunk attempt upon returning wasn’t as easy. Tatum was still testing out what he could do in a live-game situation and had one of his attempts denied by the rim.

Tatum had a slow start in the first half after being introduced and welcomed back by the Boston crowd.

He went 2-for-8 from the field for five points. He also had five rebounds and five assists.

The NBA champion produced the points in the final moments of the second quarter, bringing the crowd to their feet with a putback dunk and a three-pointer on the following possession.

He had 15 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in front of the Boston fans at the TD Garden.

"Hey, I’m back," Tatum said about his mindset for coming back. "Let’s continue where we left off. Our goal is to win a championship."

The forward has nearly produced a double-double in the five games he’s played in since his return. He’s averaging 20 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists.

Jaylen Brown and the Celtics went 41-21 to start the season with Tatum out of the lineup. Boston has put together a 4-2 record since Tatum’s return.

"I couldn’t be more proud of this team for the way they attacked the season and how they went about it to be the second or third seed in the Eastern Conference," Tatum added.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Jayson Tatum leaned on family during injury rehab, return to Celtics

Mikel Brown Jr. to miss Louisville's first round March Madness game vs South Florida

Louisville basketball will be without star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. for its Men's NCAA Tournament first round game against 11-seed South Florida on Thursday in Buffalo.

If the Cardinals are to win, Brown will also miss Saturday's second round game, the school announced Wednesday. The winner of Louisville/South Florida plays the winner of Michigan State/North Dakota State.

Brown has been dealing with a nagging back injury, but Cardinals coach Pat Kelsey said Monday, March 16 that Brown had “made great progress” leading up to this week.

Brown, a projected 2026 NBA draft lottery pick, averaged 18.2 points and 4.7 assists per game this season, but last played Feb. 28. He's missed 11 games this season.

It's a major blow for the Cardinals, who are reliant on the star point guard.

Louisville enters March Madness with a 7-5 record with Brown on the bench vs. a 16-5 record when he plays. Per CBBAnalytics.com, it averages 6.4 fewer points per 40 minutes (88.1 vs. 81.7) and shoots 4.8% worse from beyond the arc (38.2% vs. 33.4%) when he's not on the court.

Kelsey said Brown reaggravated the back injury, which initially surfaced in mid-December, by taking some hard falls during a Feb. 23 loss at then-No. 19 North Carolina.

Brown told reporters at the ACC Tournament he was "starting to get there. I'm slowly progressing; I'm slowly doing more day in and day out, just trying to get a feel for it. But, obviously, like coach said, the plan is: I'll come back when I'm 100%."

When asked, "Are you 100% positive that you’ll be back for the NCAA Tournament?" He replied, "Right now, I’m just focused on my rehab more than anything. When the time feels right, I'm going to talk to the coaching staff; and we’re going to come to an agreement."

Will Mikel Brown Jr. play vs South Florida in March Madness?

The Louisville star freshman has been ruled out for Thursday's first round game against the Bulls. And if the Cardinals are to advance, he won't play in the second round game either.

March Madness schedule: When is Louisville vs South Florida?

  • Time/day: 1:30 p.m., Thursday
  • TV: TNT

Louisville Courier-Journal reporter Brooks Holton contributed to this story.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Mikel Brown Jr injury update: Louisville star out first two rounds

Knicks Bulletin: ‘So if my shot’s not falling, what does that mean?’

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - DECEMBER 2: Filmmaker Spike Lee looks on before a game between the Boston Celtics and the New York Knicks at TD Garden on December 2, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Turns out tankers are not only tankers, but also bad-as-hell buncha guys.

The Knicks trounced the Pacers, and the best is yet to come as they 1) were without JB and 2) next face the Nets.

Forgive me for the lack of multimedia bits today, but X is down right now. Cold world.

Mike Brown

On helping players find their rhythm whether they’re scoring or not:

“More than anything else, you hope that everyone’s playing the right way. So if my shot’s not falling, what does that mean? Maybe I try to get to the rim, or I try to go get an offensive rebound, or I try to get out in transition and get an easy one just to see it go in. So those types of things you hope guys realize and try to embrace to help get a rhythm while we’re trying to help them, too.”

On focusing on honing out details late in the season:

“It’s about embracing the details, focusing the right way, and playing with a sense of urgency while making other teams feel us at this point in the season.”

On Mikal Bridges working through his slump:

“Mikal’s a pro. He’s been through this before. And we’ve had other guys go through it this year. He’s going to find his rhythm. Just got to keep trying to embrace doing other things and try to get some easys: try to attack the rim, try to get to the free throw line, try to get out in transition and get offensive rebounds. But it’s the same stuff that I would say and that I have said about other guys trying to find ways to impact the game, which he’s more than capable of doing.”

On leaving Bridges on the court to help him regain some confidence:

“He hit a couple shots down the stretch and to try to get anybody that hasn’t shot well from the 3-point line, to try to get him more looks, especially in a game like this, was a good thing. To try to get him an extra look or two down the stretch is something we wanted to do.”

On demanding stronger starts from the Knicks:

“I’ve said it before, our focus, our physicality, our sense of urgency to embrace the details possession after possession, while making our opponents feel us. We can’t ease into the game.”

On Josh Hart’s connectivity with the starters amid whispers of a lineup change:

“I think the main thing is him connecting the group. I’m not saying he is Andre Iguodala or his game is like Andre Iguodala’s, but there are a lot of similarities. When you watch him, you’re like, ‘oh my gosh he’s a great shooter.’ But you’re like he’s pretty good at that, he’s really good in a lot different areas. But more importantly he connects the group and having a guy like that especially to start games is huge. With him missing all the preseason and me getting used to how we can play with him, the different ways people guard us with him on the floor took some time but he’s been fantastic giving us that energy, giving us the connectivity we needed with that starting group and then doing the little things. Offensive glass, pushing the pace, getting off in transition. He’s a switchable guy, he’s a physical guy and a lot of things that don’t necessarily show up in the stat sheet that he does that help with connectivity as well.”

On Hart taking the right shots on Tuesday:

“I just like that he took the right shots and he didn’t hesitate.”

On keeping Hart alongside Tyler Kolek on the floor vs. Indy:

“Not just for the starting five, but yeah. Especially when Tyler, as a young point guard, is on the floor we try to keep Josh out there with him. Just to help in that area at times. He was still kind of finding his way; so Josh is a great secondary ball handler within the group.”

On giving Bridges extra looks late:

“To try to get anybody that hadn’t shot it well from the three-point line to get another look, especially in a game like this, was a good thing. You talk about Mikal’s streak and his durability – when he turned his ankle, I was like, ‘Whoa.’ So for him to be able to somehow someway fight through that was good to see. So to try to get him an extra look or two down the stretch was something that we wanted to do.”

On choosing Jordan Clarkson over Mohamed Diawara in the Pacers game:

“We’ll continue to see what happens going forward. We’ve all had the pleasure of being able to see Mo at a young age contribute a lot. He just has to keep himself ready like Jordan did. Go out there when your number’s called, don’t do too much but do what you can do and perform at the highest level in terms of your work ethic, focus and attention to detail and just go from there.”

On potentially changing the starting lineup for the playoffs:

“It’s not too late to do anything. If I feel the need, I will. I’m not thinking that right now. I’m concentrating on each individual because, like you said, we’ve started different people at different times. It’s collectively.”

On Miles McBride’s recovery timeline:

“Anytime we can get healthy, yeah. I try not to hear the updates though, because does that mean he’ll be back in two weeks, three weeks, a week, 10 days? I don’t know. Deuce was playing well for us when this happened. It’s part of the season, so keep fingers crossed, allow our medical crew who has done a fantastic job, and when he comes back we’ll all be excited.”

On expecting Jalen Brunson to return on Friday:

“I imagine he’ll play in Brooklyn. There’s two days off before the next game. There’s plenty of time to get himself right.”

Josh Hart

On regaining shooting confidence:

“I think since All-Star I was struggling in terms of shooting. I think I’m kind of in my head with a lot of stuff. So I just got to trust my work and go out there and shoot my shots.”

Jose Alvarado

On breaking his shooting slump in his first start for New York:

“It was a weight off my shoulders. I wasn’t really focused on it, but obviously it was in the back of my mind, something that’s not who I am. I just trust the work.”

Karl-Anthony Towns

On Josh Hart stepping up without Brunson on Tuesday:

“Josh does a lot of things to make options available. He can get a rebound, outlet it quick, pushing pace and making the defense have to converge on him. Around the basket, he does the full-court dribble with the euro, gets to the basket and kicks it out to the corner for a 3.”

On the team effort vs. Indiana without Brunson:

“It was special. It’s a game obviously we’re missing JB. We all understood the importance of picking up the slack, and I thought all of us in this locker room, particularly Josh, did a great job of playing team basketball. It was great for all of us — obviously one person’s not gonna replace Jalen, but we all can collectively come together and try to play better basketball for each other with his absence.”

Seahawks fan discussion: How would you feel if the NBA finally brought the Sonics back?

SEATTLE - MARCH 24: Seattle SuperSonics fans hold up signs in support of keeping the SuperSonics franchise in Seattle for the upcoming season during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers on March 24, 2008 at Key Arena in Seattle, Washington. The Sonics won 97-84. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Terrence Vaccaro/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

It’s been almost 20 years since Seattle lost its basketball team. The SuperSonics were relocated, renamed, and now the Oklahoma City Thunder have morphed into an NBA powerhouse. Champions for the first time last season, favored to win it all again this season. During that time, the Seattle Seahawks have thankfully enjoyed the greatest run of success in franchise history, winning two Super Bowls along the way. Their first Super Bowl was Seattle’s first title in a Big 4 men’s sports league since the Sonics in 1979.

If you’ve not kept up with the news, after years worth of teases and disappointments, the Sonics might be coming back for real in the 2028-29 season.

If the Sonics’ return is a formality, they’d get all their franchise history back from the Thunder prior to the move, but unfortunately the Thunder roster doesn’t also get to go to Seattle. The city would complete the set of having pro teams in the NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB, in addition to MLS, WNBA, and PWHL (among others). Don’t let any outsider tell you Seattle is not a thriving, vibrant sports market.

With all of that said, the NBA is much different than it was in 2008. There’s so much three-point shooting, some argue too much three-point shooting. The money is preposterously high yet there are so many injured stars and players sitting out due to “load management.” It feels like there’s more emphasis on trades and hypothetical roster moves than in other leagues, and player movement is extraordinarily high at the upper level. Big markets have an outsized advantage in terms of free agency and trades in ways the NFL does not. Don’t get me started on the comically complicated NBA salary cap rules. And yes, there’s flopping. Ref whining is not new so I don’t really care about that.

I love the NBA but I also acknowledge that the perception of the league is not particularly high, and there might be some of us in the comments section who’ve fallen out of love with the NBA because of a combination of the Sonics leaving and the subsequent changes to the league. On the other hand, it’s still another sports team—a beloved one at that—and having the Sonics paired with the Storm again would kick ass.

For a little off-topic chatter during one of the NFL’s increasingly scant offseason lulls, we want to know from Seahawks fans who are/were also NBA fans: How do you feel about the Sonics (seemingly) coming back? Would you be excited? Still bitter? Bittersweet? Not caring? There are no wrong answers here!

On the subject of basketball, if you watch the college variety, SB Nation has as special March Madness Feed, where you’ll find all sorts of content and conversation throughout the tournament. You’ll even find my bracket, which has the national championship heading out West to Arizona for the first time since the Wildcats won it all in 1997.

Chat away in the comments!

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Thunder vs Nets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling, looking for their 10th win in a row as they visit the Brooklyn Nets.

Despite a crushing 7-1 record against BK in the last eight, my Thunder vs Nets predictions have the home team taking advantage of that pile of points.

While a straight-up upset isn't in the cards, my NBA picks explain why OKC won't cover the spread on Wednesday, March 18

Thunder vs Nets prediction

Thunder vs Nets best bet: Nets +19.5 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing the second half of a back-to-back after downing Orlando 113-108 on Tuesday. They are 2-9-0 against the spread in that scenario, second-worst in the NBA.

The Thunder have been stingy defensively during this run, allowing just 105.8 points per game, but they haven't been blowing teams out. In fact, they only have two wins by double digits on this streak.

The Brooklyn Nets have been a good bet of late, going 4-2-0 ATS in their last six, and they’ve hung around with OKC, despite the losses, suffering just two 20+ point losses in the last eight meetings.

Thunder vs Nets same-game parlay

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a 40-bomb against the Magic, and his drop-off shouldn’t be that bad. He’s topped 40+ points four previous times, and his next game low was 29 points.

Chet Holmgren has been working the glass well of late, as he’s grabbed at least nine rebounds in nine straight games, going for double digits four times.

Thunder vs Nets SGP

  • Nets +19.5
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points
  • Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds

Our "from downtown" SGP: SGA Still Puts 'Em Away

Let’s stick with the presumptive 2026 NBA MVP to fill out this SGP. Though he’s had one or fewer 3-point makes in five of the last six vs. BK, Gilgeous-Alexander has hit at least two triples in four straight games overall.

And SGA’s rebound numbers have been decent during this streak, averaging 4.8 boards per game, but he’s grabbed at least six rebounds in six of his last eight vs Brooklyn.

Thunder vs Nets SGP

  • Nets +19.5
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 made threes
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 rebounds
  • Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds

Thunder vs Nets odds

  • Spread: Thunder -19.5 (-110) | Nets +19.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Thunder -2400 | Nets +1200
  • Over/Under: Over 213.5 (-110) | Under 213.5 (-110)

Thunder vs Nets betting trend to know

OKC has won 27 straight road games against teams with a losing record. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nets.

How to watch Thunder vs Nets

LocationBarclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
DateWednesday, March 18, 2026
Tip-off7:30 p.m. ET
TVFDSN-Oklahoma, YES

Thunder vs Nets latest injuries

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Box Grades: Sacramento’s front office rejoices as Spurs cruise to easy victory

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 17: Harrison Barnes #40 of the San Antonio Spurs shoots over Precious Achiuwa #9 of the Sacramento Kings during the second half at Golden 1 Center on March 17, 2026 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) | Getty Images

After an uncomfortable win over the Clippers on Sunday, the Spurs headed north to play the hapless Kings, who are locked in a desperate battle with the Nets, Wizards, and Pacers to be the most inept team in the NBA. Even so, the second night of a back-to-back is always somewhat unpredictable, and the Kings had managed to win four for their last five games. I will admit that a little part of me worried that the Spurs would lose focus and severely damage their chance of catching OKC in the standings.

I needn’t have worried. As anyone who watched this game would know, the final score dramatically overstates the level of competition on display. To get a better sense of how quickly the contest was over, consider that ESPN’s win probability tracker first gave the Spurs a 99% chance of winning with 10:49 left in the second quarter, and that was the best odds Sacramento would face for the remainder of the game.

While satisfying, games like this are also somewhat boring in the moment. However, they do typically produce some unusual and rare statistical combinations. None of San Antonio’s individual box score differentials were extraordinary by recent historical standards, largely because the Spurs were finished trying to extend the lead by halftime. However, this dominant performance still produced some noteworthy highlights:

  • Fun fact: this is just the 33rd regular season game since the start of 2012-2013 in which the winning and losing team had exactly the same number of field goal and free throw attempts. In that set of contests, there are just three other cases in which the margin of victory was 28+ points.
  • San Antonio enjoyed FG%, 3P%, and FT% differentials of +7.53, +12.13, and +23.08 percentage points, respectively. As a result, they made seven more total field goals, 11 more threes, and three more free throws. Since the start of 2012-2013, only 46 other regular season winners have achieved FGM, 3PM, and FTM differentials that were all as good or better than these.
  • What’s especially remarkable about the 3PM differential is that the Kings performance from distance (14 makes on 36 attempts) was actually quite good. In fact, in the set of 16,695 regular season games since the start of 2012-2013, there is just ONE other case in which the winning team produced a 3PM differentials of at least +11 with the losing team making at least 14 threes with a 3P% of at least 38.89%. Funnily enough, this other case was also a Kings game, though they were on the winning end of that exchange.
  • Given the score, free throws were remarkably unimportant in this game. Since the start of 2012-2013, the average number of total free throws taken in regular season games with a combined score of 236+ is almost exactly 50, and there are just 36 other cases in which that cumulative point threshold was achieved on no more than 26 attempts. As rare an event as this has been to date, it actually happened twice yesterday, with the other case being the Knicks vs. Pacers game.

What are Team Graded Box Scores?

Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).

Data Source: The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected from Basketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.

Hawks vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Atlanta Hawks ride a 10-game winning streak into Texas as they visit the Dallas Mavericks, who have dropped 10 of 12.

Atlanta has pounded teams with losing records lately, and my Hawks vs. Mavericks predictions expect much of the same tonight.

Read on for my full NBA picks on Wednesday, March 18.

Hawks vs Mavericks prediction

Hawks vs Mavericks best bet: Hawks -8.5 (-110)

The Atlanta Hawks' win streak has been fuelled by punishing a weak slate, as their 124-112 win over Orlando last game was their first on this run against a Top-6 opponent.

Only two other wins were against teams in a Play-In position.

Atlanta’s smallest margin of victory in the last 10 is nine points, and that fits about right with another sub-.500 opponent.

One of the teams they dumped was the Dallas Mavericks, 124-112, on March 10. Dallas can’t stop anyone. During this skid, it's allowed 120.9 points per game, the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Hawks vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Let’s target Atlanta’s two budding stars. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is coming off a career-high 41 against Orlando, giving him five 20+ point games in the last six, including 29 against the Mavs.

Jalen Johnson is coming off a triple-double vs. Orlando and has 10+ rebounds in back-to-back games.

Hawks vs Mavericks SGP

  • Hawks -8.5
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 20.5 points
  • Jalen Johnson Over 10.5 rebounds

Our "from downtown" SGP: Eyeing Johnson and NAW

Johnson is averaging a robust 9.4 assists per game in March. He had 13 in his last game and has gone for nine or more in four of his last six.

Walker drilled nine triples against Orlando, but aside from a five-splash game last time vs. Dallas, he’s gone Under 3.5 makes in the previous 12.

Hawks vs Mavericks SGP

  • Hawks -8.5
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 20.5 points
  • Nickeil Alexander Walker Under 3.5 made threes
  • Jalen Johnson Over 10.5 rebounds
  • Jalen Johnson Over 8.5 assists

Hawks vs Mavericks odds

  • Spread: Hawks -8 (-110) | Mavericks +8 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Hawks -340 | Mavericks +270
  • Over/Under: Over 238 (-110) | Under 238 (-110)

Hawks vs Mavericks betting trend to know

Dallas has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Mavericks.

How to watch Hawks vs Mavericks

LocationAmerican Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
DateWednesday, March 18, 2026
Tip-off8:30 p.m. ET
TVFDSN Southeast-Atlanta, KFAA

Hawks vs Mavericks latest injuries

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Raptors vs Bulls Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Chicago Bulls enter tonight’s contest against the Toronto Raptors as underdogs, but Josh Giddey has been on fire of late for the hosts.

Find out why I’m backing Giddey to put up a ton of assists and boards in my Raptors vs. Bulls predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 18.

Raptors vs Bulls prediction

Raptors vs Bulls best bet: Josh Giddey Over 20.5 rebounds + assists (-120)

It hasn’t been an easy year for the Chicago Bulls, who are poised to miss the playoffs for the fourth straight campaign, but Josh Giddey has been a revelation in his second season with the team.

Giddey is averaging career-highs in assists (8.9) as well as rebounds (8.6), and he’s been even better down the stretch.

The Bulls point guard is logging 12 dimes and 11.7 boards per game in March— those numbers rank first and fourth, respectively, among all players.

Giddey has recorded Over 20.5 assists and rebounds in five straight games.

Raptors vs Bulls same-game parlay

The Bulls own the fifth-worst defense in the NBA (120 points allowed per game), so it could be a big point night for the Toronto Raptors' top scorers.

Brandon Ingram has scored 34+ points in each of his last two games, while RJ Barrett has posted Over 21.5 points in five of his last six. 

Raptors vs Bulls SGP

  • Raptors moneyline
  • Brandon Ingram Over 23.5 points
  • RJ Barrett Over 21.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: (Triple) doubling down

Giddey has been a triple threat for the Bulls with two straight triple-doubles and five in his last six contests.

On the Raps side, Jakob Poeltl has two double-doubles in his last four games, while Scottie Barnes is fresh off a double-double on Sunday.

Raptors vs Bulls SGP

  • Josh Giddey to record triple-double
  • Jakob Poeltl to record double-double
  • Scottie Barnes to record double-double

Raptors vs Bulls odds

  • Spread: Raptors -7.5 | Bulls +7.5
  • Moneyline: Raptors -280 | Bulls +230
  • Over/Under: Over 234.5 | Under 234.5

Raptors vs Bulls betting trend to know

The Bulls have hit the Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Bulls.

How to watch Raptors vs Bulls

LocationUnited Center, Chicago, IL
DateWednesday, March 18, 2026
Tip-off8:00 p.m. ET
TVTSN, CHSN

Raptors vs Bulls latest injuries

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Nuggets vs Grizzlies Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will look to hand the Memphis Grizzlies their ninth straight loss tonight as they meet at the FedExForum.  

The Joker is carving up his opponents lately, and my Nuggets vs. Grizzlies predictions and NBA picks are eyeing him to drop dimes. 

Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction

Nuggets vs Grizzlies best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 assists (-105)

Nikola Jokic is truly a generational playmaker. He leads the Association in assists with 10.6 per night, and the Denver Nuggets big man truly cannot be stopped right now. He's comfortably gone Over his assist total in five straight appearances

In fact, he’s dished out 28 dimes across his previous two games alone. Jokic had 14 assists on Tuesday against the 76ers, and he also grabbed another 14 dimes on Saturday against the Lakers. 

The Serb is averaging 12.5 assists across two meetings with the Memphis Grizzlies this season, who are towards the bottom of the league in dimes allowed. 

Nuggets vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Denver just blew out the Sixers by 28 points, and the Grizzlies have lost their last two games by an average of 16 and 25 points, respectively. The Bulls just dominated them — a team that isn’t even in the playoff conversation. 

The Nuggets have won four straight against Memphis. While they haven’t won any of those games by this big a spread, Denver comes in hot, and the Grizzlies are in the complete opposite position. 

Jamal Murray has cooked Memphis this season, averaging 26 ppg across two meetings. He’s cashed the Over in two of his last four outings, dropping 30+ in both games. 

Nuggets vs Grizzlies SGP

  • Nuggets -13.5
  • Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 assists
  • Jamal Murray Over 24.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: All Nuggets all the time!

Johnson has been playing well lately, cashing the Over in four straight contests. He’s scored 18 points in back-to-back appearances, and he's hit the Over in back-to-back road games. 

Jokic has grabbed Over 13.5 rebounds in two of his last three, and the Grizzlies are considered an easy matchup for centers on the glass. They’re allowing 15.2 rebounds per contest to bigs.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies SGP

  • Nuggets -13.5
  • Jamal Murray Over 24.5 points
  • Cameron Johnson Over 12.5 points
  • Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds

Nuggets vs Grizzlies odds

  • Spread: Nuggets -13.5 | Grizzlies +13.5
  • Moneyline: Nuggets -800 | Grizzlies +550
  • Over/Under: Over 243.5 | Under 243.5

Nuggets vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 23-14 ATS on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Grizzlies.

How to watch Nuggets vs Grizzlies

LocationFedExForum, Memphis, TN
DateWednesday, March 18, 2026
Tip-off8:30 p.m. ET
TVAltitude, FDSN Southeast-Memphis

Nuggets vs Grizzlies latest injuries

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The Toronto Raptors might, in fact, be back

How quickly things can change.

It was just a week ago that the Toronto Raptors lost by double digits to the New Orleans Pelicans, and the team (minus Immanuel Quickley) seemed perfectly alright with Dejounte Murray punking Jamal Shead.

The team was dealing with the (data-backed) narrative that they took care of bad teams but couldn’t beat any good ones – and even that was in peril, because they couldn’t beat the lowly Pelicans.

The Raptors’ response has been as good as you could hope for. They bounced back with strong wins against the Phoenix Suns and the East-leading Detroit Pistons.

Just when the Raptors’ season felt like it was destined to fizzle out into a play-in spot, their last two performances made the case that they may very well be back, and vibes are once again good as the team is fifth in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to United Center to take on the Chicago Bulls at 8 p.m. ET.

Here are some things that may be back… in a few senses of the word.

Brandon Ingram? Back (from a short slump).

Brandon Ingram’s bucket-getting is a crucial element in a Raptors’ offense that is rather short on pure bucket-getters. For that reason, the team really struggled during the four-game stretch earlier this month when Ingram averaged 14 points per game on 34% shooting. But in the two games since (wins against Phoenix and Detroit), Ingram has led the way, averaging 35 points on 56% shooting. The Raptors made an effort to get the ball in his hands early on in their clutch possessions, rather than letting the shot clock wind down while they labor to get an entry pass.

Winning? Back (to back games against playoff teams).

Winning, as a concept, disappeared for a second there. Particularly against good teams. Before the Suns win, the Raptors’ last home win against a team ahead of them in the standings came against the then-5-2 Milwaukee Bucks in November. But winning appears to be back, and it came back in back-to-back fashion against a pair of good teams. Can they make it back-to-back-to-back?

Jak? Back (issues didn’t impede him Sunday).

Jakob Poeltl’s back issues have been a problem all year. When they haven’t kept him out of games, the pain (and his conditioning in returning) have kept him from being his best self, often looking a bit sluggish. On Sunday against the Pistons, however, Poeltl played what likely his best game of the season, with 21 points, 18 rebounds and five assists, in a season-high 36 minutes. The issue could continue nagging him. But Poeltl looked like he was back from the back injury against Detroit, matched up against All-Star center Jalen Duren. The Bulls don’t have a true starting-caliber center near Poeltl’s size; their starting big has been 6-foot-8 Jalen Smith.

CMB? Back (from injury, potentially).

OK, so Collin Murray-Boyles is doubtful for tonight’s game with a thumb injury. But the rookie returned to practice on Tuesday, for the first time since his eight-game absence began, signalling that he is close to his return. The Raptors are essentially as healthy as they’ve been all year right now. But once CMB returns they’ll have some much-needed depth behind the oft-injured Poeltl and a really good, versatile defender back in the mix. We don’t know yet whether Murray-Boyles will play tonight. But once he is back, I know that I’ll be… getting the popcorn out.

Lakers vs Rockets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Los Angeles Lakers overcame a six-point halftime deficit to deliver a win over the Houston Rockets on Monday, but Houston will look to get back on track in tonight's rematch.

Amen Thompson has been on a heater, and my Lakers vs Rockets predictions expect him to stay hot and lead Houston to a much-needed victory.

Here are my best free NBA picks for this star-studded Western Conference matchup on Wednesday, March 18.

Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston, with the game airing on ESPN. 

Lakers vs Rockets prediction

Lakers vs Rockets best bet: Amen Thompson Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)

Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson is enjoying a breakout campaign with a PRA average of 30.8.

He’s reached 32+ PRA in 33 of 65 games, including 18 of 31 appearances at home. In nine games since posting a dud against the Orlando Magic, he’s averaged 35.3 PRA and hit the Over on this combo line eight times.

Thompson finished with 36 PRA on Monday, and he went for 38 PRA in his first matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers. Thompson can use his length and athleticism to get to the rim and clean the glass, just like he did on Monday.

Lakers vs Rockets same-game parlay

The Rockets are just 12-18 ATS as the home favorite but 23-7 straight up in that situation. The Rockets are an NBA-best 19-6 straight up after a loss, and the Lakers will have a difficult time beating them twice in a row on the road.

Houston led through two quarters despite a poor showing from Kevin Durant and the absence of Alperen Sengun, and I expect them to close the deal tonight.

Both teams have hit the Under in six of their last 10, including Monday, in which the teams combined for just 192 points. The Rockets are 10-19-1 to the Under as the home favorite, and the Lakers are 7-8 to the Under as the road underdog.

Lakers vs Rockets SGP

  • Amen Thompson Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists
  • Rockets moneyline
  • Under 222.5

Our "from downtown" SGP: Combo Craze

Durant is averaging 34.7 PRA on the season, and he’s reached 35+ in two of his last three at home. He finished with just 25 on Monday, but he went for 37 in his first matchup with L.A. and can bounce back tonight.

Sengun is back in action after two games on the sideline with a back injury. He’s averaging 36.3 PRA at home this season, and he finished with 30 when he faced the Lakers in December. 

Jabari Smith Jr. finished with 30 PRA on Monday and 23 PRA in his first matchup with the Lakers. He’s averaged 25.6 across his last five games, hitting the Over on this line four times in that span.

Lakers vs Rockets SGP

  • Kevin Durant Over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists
  • Amen Thompson Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists
  • Alperen Sengun Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assist
  • Jabari Smith Jr. Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists

Lakers vs Rockets odds

  • Spread: Lakers +2.5 (-110) | Rockets -2.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Lakers +120 | Rockets -140
  • Over/Under: Over 222 (-110) | Under 222 (-110)

Lakers vs Rockets betting trend to know

The Houston Rockets have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+16.90 Units / 38% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Rockets.

How to watch Lakers vs Rockets

LocationToyota Center, Houston, TX
DateWednesday, March 18, 2026
Tip-off9:30 p.m. ET
TVESPN

Lakers vs Rockets latest injuries

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Warriors vs Celtics Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Golden State Warriors’ road trip continues Wednesday as the Dubs travel to TD Garden to face the Boston Celtics.

Both teams are slow and low-scoring, and I don’t forecast many points in my Warriors vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks below.

Warriors vs Celtics prediction

Warriors vs Celtics best bet: Under 214.5 (-110)

Wednesday’s matchup at TD Garden will be a slow and methodical slugfest between hard-nosed defenses.

The Boston Celtics sport the slowest pace in the Association, and the Golden State Warriors own the sixth-slowest pace across their last 10 games. 

The Dubs are 18th in scoring (115.3 PPG), and the Celtics are 20th (114.3 PPG). Across their last 10, Boston has averaged just 113.7 ppg, and Golden State 113.6.

The Warriors have hit the Under in 10 of 15 games as the road dog, and the Celtics have gone Under in 18 of 28 as the home favorites.

Warriors vs Celtics same-game parlay

Neemias Queta is averaging 9.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game in his breakout campaign, and he's got a strong matchup on tap tonight.

The Warriors have surrendered the 12th-most points in the paint over their last five games, along with the fourth-most second-chance points and third-most rebounds.

Queta has reached 9+ points and 9+ rebounds 18 times this season, including two of his last three games at TD Garden. With Al Horford sidelined and Quinten Post banged up, Queta should be able to shine in front of the Boston faithful.

Warriors vs Celtics SGP

  • Under 215.5
  • Neemias Queta Over 8.5 points
  • Neemias Queta Over 8.5 rebounds

Our "from downtown" SGP: Celtics dominate down low

I’m betting on Queta to go for at least nine points and nine boards, so it’s not a far leap to bet on a 10/10 performance.

Jayson Tatum has averaged 18.7 points and 11 rebounds in three home games this season, recording two double-doubles. He and Queta can both hit that statistical milestone in a plus matchup at home.

Jaylen Brown’s production has taken a step back with Tatum in the lineup, but he’s recorded 31+ points + rebounds three times with Tatum available.

Warriors vs Celtics SGP

  • Neemias Queta to record a double-double
  • Jayson Tatum to record a double-double
  • Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 points + rebounds

Warriors vs Celtics odds

  • Spread: Golden State +12.5 (-115) | Boston -12.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Golden State +450 | Boston -600
  • Over/Under: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)

Warriors vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Celtics have hit the Under in 32 of their last 45 games for +17.70 units and a 36% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Celtics.

How to watch Warriors vs Celtics

LocationTD Garden, Boston, MA
DateWednesday, March 18, 2026
Tip-off7:00 p.m. ET
TVESPN

Warriors vs Celtics latest injuries

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Best NBA Player Props Today for March 18: Best of Luka

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Nine games are on the slate tonight across the Association, and I’ve found the very best NBA player props for all the action. I’ll include big games from Jalen Johnson, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic. 

Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, March 18. 

Best NBA player props today

PlayerPickbet365
Hawks Jalen JohnsonOver 8.5 assists+102
Nuggets Nikola JokicOver 10.5 assists-105
Lakers Luka DoncicOver 31.5 points-112

Prop #1: Jalen Johnson Over 8.5 assists

+102 at bet365

Jalen Johnson is having a phenomenal campaign for the red-hot Atlanta Hawks. He’s doing it all, averaging 23 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per night. 

I’ll focus on his playmaking here because the Duke product has hit the Over in assists in three straight, dishing out 13 and 12 dimes, respectively, across his previous two games.

The Hawks take on the Dallas Mavericks this evening, and he had eight assists against them earlier this month. The Mavs have also allowed the fifth-most assists in the NBA.

Both teams rank in the Top 5 in pace, meaning more possessions across the board and more opportunities for Johnson to up his assists total.

  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FDSN SE-Atlanta, KFAA

Prop #2: Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 assists

-105 at bet365

Nikola Jokic is possibly the best passing big man we’ve ever seen in the NBA, and the Serbian is averaging a league-best 10.6 dimes in 2025-26. 

Jokic has hit the Over in five straight for the Denver Nuggets, and he’s dished out 28 assists across his last two contests alone. The Joker had 14 dimes on Tuesday against the 76ers. 

The Nuggets face the lowly Memphis Grizzlies this evening, and Jokic is averaging 12.5 assists against them across two meetings this season. Memphis is also allowing 27.4 assists per game.

  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ALT, FDSN SE-Memphis

Prop #3: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points

-112 at bet365

Luka Doncic is showing this season exactly why the Los Angeles Lakers traded for him. The Slovenian leads the Association with 32.9 points per game. Doncic is averaging 34.3 PPG in March so far, with a few massive outings. 

The former Mav has cashed the Over in four of his last six, and he just erupted for 36 points on Monday versus the Houston Rockets, who the Lakers are set to face again tonight. 

Doncic is averaging 32.6 PPG on the road as well. He’s hot at the moment, and all signs point to Luka cooking again here.

  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ESPN

These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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