The NBA trade deadline remains over a month away, but rumors are starting to fly. My colleague Kurt Helin covered a whole slew of them in his recent piece, but the last week has seen one name mentioned far more than the others: Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young.
While Young was once thought to be one of the rising young stars in the game, the 27-year-old now finds himself alongside Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball as oft-maligned guards who are at the center of trade speculation. While it seemed implausible last year that the Hawks would want to move on from Young, an extended absence due to injury earlier in this season showed Atlanta what life might be like without Young in town, and it may have been a vision that they liked.
On a recent episode of his podcast, The Hoop Collective, ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said, "The Hawks certainly are indicating that they're looking for the exit ramp with Trae Young. They did not make any attempt to get him signed to an extension. When that's the case with your face of the franchise, that's a pretty clear message that the end could be near."
That sentiment was echoed earlier in the week when NBA reporter Marc Stein wrote in his substack, "The Stein Line," that “There is a growing belief leaguewide that the Hawks are more open to trading [Young] away than they've ever been, but what happens to their payroll if no such trade materializes and Young winds up exercising that option? Can the Hawks dare to find out by trading for Davis this winter without Young exiting at the same time?”
Why would the Hawks want to trade Trae Young?
There is a pretty basic argument to be made that the Hawks have simply been better when Trae Young is not on the floor this season. They were 2-3 in the first five games of the season before he suffered a sprained MCL and missed almost two months. The Hawks went 13-9 without him active and then have now gone 0-6 since he returned from injury.
In the 22 games that Young was out, the Hawks were 8th in the league in points per game (119.0), 6th in field goal percentage (48.7%), 1st in assists (31.4 per game), and 1st in assist ratio (21.1). They also had a Player Impact Estimate (think of it as the NBA's version of WAR - Wins Above Replacement) of 51.7, which was 9th-best in the league.
With Young back in these last six games, they are 5th in the league in points per game (122.2), 2nd in assists per game (32.2), 3rd in assist ratio (21.4), and 9th in field goal percentage (48.5%). However, they have dropped all the way down to 29th in Player Impact Estimate (45.3) and sped up from 5th in the NBA in pace to 1st in the NBA in pace (All stats courtesy of NBA.com).
Now, clearly, all of that suggests that the majority of the surface-level offensive production remains unchanged, but if you look on a more granular level, you can see that the Hawks' offensive style changes with Trae Young on the floor because of how ball-dominant he is and how much he needs to be featured in the offense.
Without Young, the Hawks were 1st in the NBA in pass rate (45.7%), 1st in assist points created per game (82.0), 4th in touches per game (434.3), and 5th in passes made per game (308.1). They moved the ball quickly and frequently, trying to find the best look possible without worrying who was shooting it.
Over that span, they had the 5th-fewest dribbles per touch (2.06), the 5th-shortest average seconds per touch (2.78 seconds), and scored the most points per game on catch-and-shoot touches while also having the 5th-most paint-touch points. They were also 9th in the NBA in the frequency of shot attempts that were deemed "wide open" (no defender within six feet) at 27.5%, so they were moving the ball quickly and also working the ball inside to their big men often to create shots or also utlizing an inside-outside game.
Since Young has come back, essentially all of that has been worse.
In the last six games, Atlanta is 14th in pass rate, down from a league-leading 45.7% to 38%. They went from 5th in passes made per game to 14th, dropping from 308.1 per game to 292.8. They went from 1st in assist points created down to 5th, and from 4th in touches per game down to 16th. They went from the fewest dribbles per touch to the 7th-fewest and from the most points per game on catch-and-shoot touches to the 10th.
The ball has simply slowed, and the assists have regressed. They are spending more time with the ball every time they touch it and are getting fewer open looks and requiring more dribbles to create their shots. They also went from the 5th-most paint-touch points to the 17th, so they are getting their big men involved less often (All stats courtesy of NBA.com).
Of course, the bigger issue is Young's defensive weaknesses. In the six games since he has returned, Atlanta has given up 125+ points in each game. When he was on the bench, the Hawks had an offensive rating that was 12th-best in the NBA and the 13th-ranked defense in the NBA. Since Young has come back, their offense has posted the 13th-best rating, but their defense has plummeted to 29th in the NBA. That's the second-worst mark in the league.
Teams are simply attacking Young whenever he's on the court, and it got so bad at times during the Hawks' loss to the Knicks that MSG’s Alan Hahn wondered if there was "any effort there whatsoever" on defense from Young.
At the end of the day, no matter how elite your offense is, you're not going to be able to contend for an NBA title if you're one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Hawks are, perhaps, realizing that now and finally deciding that it could be time to see what kind of well-rounded team they could build if Young were not part of the picture.
How realistic is a Trae Young trade?
However, as the saying goes, it takes two to tango, and there doesn't appear to be a robust trade market for Young at the moment.
As McMahon said on his podcast, trading Young is "not going to be easy. There's not going to be some wide array of teams raising their hand and trying to get in on the bidding, and I'm not sure if you're even gonna be able to make a trade that's going to bring value in return."
Part of that has to do with his contract. Young is making just under $46 million this season and has a player option for essentially $49 million next year, which he will almost assuredly pick up. A team could void that player option if they extend him, but that would mean committing even more money to Young, which is complicated for NBA teams given apron restrictions in the salary cap.
The other issue is the defensive limitations and offensive style restrictions that we discussed above. Any team that trades for Young is going to need to have multiple lockdown defenders around him, and also be able to build an offensive system that doesn't collapse when Young inevitably has his moments during a game when he bogs down the flow of the passing and keeps things perimeter-centric. Some teams would fit that mold, but would those teams also be willing to pay $46 million for a player who is no longer viewed as a player you can build a franchise around?
Which teams would be most likely to trade for Trae Young?
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls always seem to be linked to things like this, and it does make some sense. Chicago wants to contend, but needs more firepower in order to do it. Coby White is in the final year of his deal and is seeking a contract that feels unlikely for the Bulls to match, which means he could be a usable trade asset. The Bulls have an extra first-round pick from the Trail Blazers as well, and Young could fill an important scoring punch in Chicago.
Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons have the defensive pieces to withstand Young's weakness there, and they could really use another shooter. They also have about an 11-man rotation, so some consolidation would make some sense, and the Hawks could be interested in a young guard like Jaden Ivey. That being said, they're currently the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and it would be a major risk to shake that up for a volatile player like Young. Would he even be OK playing second fiddle to a younger player like Cade Cunningham?
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are built to contend now with Kevin Durant in the fold, but they also find themselves in a stacked Western Conference. Could acquiring Young help push them over the top? They currently have the 7th-ranked defense, so they could absorb some of Young's defensive weaknesses, and they have been searching for a primary ball-handler since Fred Van Vleet was injured before the start of the season. However, the Rockets are also good right now and have plenty of young talent that they may not be keen to part with.
Milwaukee Bucks
This is just a pure desperation play. The Bucks may view acquiring Young as their final chance to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo in town. They could "sell high" on Ryan Rollins and some draft picks to give Giannis a running mate that they hope would entice him to stay.
Charlotte Hornets
Highly unlikely, but the Hornets reportedly want to get rid of LaMelo Ball, so could the teams just facilitate one ill-fitting guard for another? Probably not because it wouldn't solve anybody's issues, but it's fun to imagine.
