Three key Warriors questions for win-or-go-home Game 7 vs. Rockets originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
HOUSTON – It all comes down to this.
Sunday night in Houston, the Warriors will know their fate. Win and move on to Minnesota. Lose and go home with a heightened offseason full of questions from a first-round exit after going all-in and acquiring Jimmy Butler at the NBA trade deadline.
The Warriors shouldn’t want to have another 50-point Game 7 like they needed from Steph Curry two years ago to advance to the second round. Curry has averaged 32.6 points on 46.7 percent shooting with a 42.4 3-point percentage for his career in five Game 7s. Draymond Green has played in five such games like Curry, and was extremely locked in at shootaround, intently listening during a long conversation with coach Steve Kerr. The last time Butler played in a Game 7 he dropped 28 points, seven rebounds, six assists and three steals to lead the eighth-seeded Miami Heat past the Boston Celtics to reach the NBA Finals two seasons ago.
There aren’t many worries regarding how those three will play with their backs against the wall. Every question is centered on those around them.
With that being said, here are three quick questions ahead of Game 7 between the Warriors and Rockets.
Who Starts?
Kerr already has used four different starting lineups through the first six games, all while the Rockets trot out the same starters every time. Rewarding Buddy Hield’s Game 3 performance of 17 points and three steals made sense, and Hield then scored 15 points and had two early steals that set a tone in the Warriors’ Game 4 win. But in the last two games, Hield has scored four points, going 2 of 10 from the field, missing all six of his threes and was held scoreless in the Warriors’ Game 6 loss.
Gary Payton II replaced Brandin Podziemski on Friday night, but Payton was a minus-12 in 20 minutes. He made a costly mistake fouling Fred VanVleet for a four-point play to open the fourth quarter, and wasn’t impactful enough on either side of the ball. Payton also was added to the injury report Sunday morning because of an illness and wasn’t seen at shootaround.
“I think it complicates things, but it just requires everybody else to step up, just like any other injury,” Podziemski said at shootaround when asked about what happens if Payton can’t play. “It’s Game 7, it’s win or go home. Whoever we have or don’t have, we’re going to roll with them and give it our best shot.”
The starting lineup of Curry, Podziemski, Hield, Butler and Green has played the most minutes (34) among five-man units for the Warriors this series, and has produced the best net rating (20.4). Moses Moody typically was part of the starting five in place of Hield, but that group has a minus-6.4 net rating in 26 minutes over three games during the series, with a 105.9 offensive rating and a 112.2 defensive rating.
Still, they went 16-3 together in the regular season and it might be best to trust what helped get Golden State here in the first place.
Have They Figured Out The Zone?
Houston’s zone defense has been torturous for the Warriors thus far. The Warriors emphasized it during film sessions and know they will have to beat it to earn a victory on the Rockets’ home court. Between the Rockets’ length and athleticism, the Warriors have looked like a lost team trying to break down their zone defense.
But maybe it’s all in their own heads.
“We’re just overcomplicating it to what it really is,” Podziemski said. “It seems as if from the film, a lot of times they don’t even really know what they’re doing. They’re just trying to follow Steph around and trying to match up in space. We just need to simplify things, which we’ve done. I think we’ll be ready tonight.”
Podziemski agreed there has been some hesitation as the Warriors are trying to figure out what the Rockets are doing, processing that and still playing their style of basketball. The Warriors believe they have figured out what the Rockets’ plan is in their zone defense, and now it’s all about making plays when recognizing it. Making open shots would help, too.
In their last two games, both losses, the Warriors are shooting 33.9 percent on shots considered open (defender within four to six feet) and 38.8 percent on wide-open shots (closest defender more than six feet away). They shot 27.8 percent on open threes in those two losses, and 34.8 percent on wide-open threes.
Is Everything Really On The Table?
Those were the words of Kerr after Friday night’s Game 6 loss. And yes, that includes using Jonathan Kuminga.
Kerr went deeper on Kuminga’s possible role for Game 7 when speaking to reporters over Zoom on Saturday night.
“I thought he played well in Game 3 when we started him, especially defensively,” Kerr said. “He did a good job on Jalen Green. I think that’s an area where he can help us. On-ball defense. The key is what’s the combination around him? We know they’re in zone an awful lot. Can we find the right combination with JK, with the shooting and spacing, passing we need to expose the zone? These are all the questions we’re asking.”
“As I’ve made very clear, the arrival of Jimmy made the combinations much tougher for JK. So that’s what’s been standing in his way. I’ve gotta feel the game. I’d love to get him out there, because I think he can help us, and doing that early, I think that’d be helpful for him and for us.”
Kuminga has played two games, entering Game 2 when Butler went down with a pelvic contusion from a scary fall and starting Game 3 when Butler was ruled out. Green is 3 of 8 overall for seven points when guarded by Kuminga in those two games, and has made only one of his five 3-point attempts. More than anything, though, the Warriors desperately need someone who can get them a bucket, and perhaps the wild card of Kuminga can get the job done.
For how fun Pat Spencer’s minutes have been, the most likely bench player to see an uptick in minutes is veteran center Kevon Looney. The last time Looney played a Game 7, he grabbed 21 rebounds, including 10 on offense. Rockets center Steven Adams is a plus-53 in the series, and pairing him and Alperen Şengün has been a rebounding nightmare for the Warriors.
Throughout their decade together, Kerr has shown the ultimate trust in Looney. Don’t be surprised if he turns to him for some big-time minutes in Game 7.
“I’m always ready,” Looney shared. “Rebounding is what I do. I’m excited about this game and trying to make an impact. It’s always fun to go out there and play a game like this and to go against somebody like Adams and Şengün and all those guys that are great rebounders, I’m going to try and leave my mark.
“I’m looking forward to it. Whatever happens, I’ll be ready.”
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