Knicks at Rockets Prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for March 31

The New York Knicks (48-27) travel to Houston to face the Rockets (45-29) on NBC and Peacock. This is the second and final meeting between the two. New York won the only matchup, 108-106 on February 21st.

New York has dropped its last two games after winning seven straight prior. The Knicks clinched a playoff spot in the top six last night and are positioned in the third seed with a 1.0 game-lead over the Cavaliers. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks have the third-best rated offense in the NBA, but come in at 16th defensively.

Houston sits in the six-seed of the West and are a 0.5 game back of Minnesota and 2.0 games behind Denver. The Rockets have won its last two games, but have been inconsistent with a 5-5 record over the last 10 games. Houston has the 16th-rated offense in that 10-game span and 13th-ranked defense.

Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

After 24 years, the NBA is back on NBC and Peacock, combining the nostalgia of an iconic era with the innovative future of basketball coverage. The NBA on NBC YouTube channel delivers fans must-see highlights, analysis, and exclusive and unique content. 

Game Details and How to Watch Live: Knicks at Rockets

  • Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Site: Toyota Center
  • City: Houston, TX
  • Network/Streaming: Peacock/NBC Sports

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Game Odds: Knicks at Rockets

The latest odds as of Tuesday, courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Houston Rockets (-112), New York Knicks (-108)
  • Spread: Houston -1.5
  • Total: O/U 217.5 points

This game opened New York -1.5 with the Total set at 218.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!

Expected Starting Lineups: Knicks at Rockets

New York Knicks

  • PG Jalen Brunson
  • SG Josh Hart
  • SF Mikal Bridges
  • PF OG Anunoby
  • C Karl-Anthony Towns

Houston Rockets

  • PG Amen Thompson
  • SG Reed Sheppard
  • SF Kevin Durant
  • PF Jabari Smith
  • C Alperen Sengun

Injury Report: Knicks at Rockets

New York Knicks

  • Landry Shamet (knee) is OUT for tonight's game
  • Miles McBride (pelvis) is QUESTIONABLE for tonight's game

Houston Rockets

  • None

Important stats, trends and insights: Knicks at Rockets

  • Houston is 31-43 ATS, ranking 3rd-worst
  • Houston is 13-22 ATS at home, ranking 2nd-worst
  • Houston is 40-33-1 to the Under, ranking 10th-best
  • Houston is 22-12-1 to the Under at home, ranking 4th-best
  • New York is 39-37 ATS this season
  • New York is 14-24 ATS on the road, ranking 2nd-worst
  • New York is 40-36 to the Under and 22-16 to the Under on the road

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s Knicks and Rockets’ game:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Knicks’ Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Knicks +1.5 ATS
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 217.5

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

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Where to watch New York Knicks vs. Houston Rockets: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Tuesday, March 31

The New York Knicks just clinched a playoff berth while the Houston Rockets are trying to improve their own seeding in the Western Conference. New York is slightly favored with a moneyline of -118.0, compared to Houston's -102.0.

  • New York Knicks: 48-27 (No. 2 in Atlantic Division)

  • Houston Rockets: 45-29 (No. 2 in Southwest Division)

  • Spread: Houston Rockets 1.5

  • Moneyline: Houston Rockets -102 / New York Knicks -118

  • Over/Under: 218.5

How to watch New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets: TV, live stream info for tonight's game

Tonight's Coast 2 Coast Tuesday lineup features an exciting NBA doubleheader on NBC and Peacock. First at 8:00 PM ET Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks take on Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets in Texas. Then, at 11:00 PM ET it's the Portland Trail Blazers vs LA Clippers . Live coverage begins with NBA Showtime at 7:00 PM on Peacock. See below for additional information on how to watch each game.

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New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets Game Preview:

The Knicks officially clinched a playoff spot last night after Philadelphia's loss to Miami. They're currently third in the Eastern Conference, just two games behind the Boston Celtics.

New York struggled earlier this season, going 2-9 from December 31-January 19, but has managed to turn their season around, winning 23 of 30 games from January 21 to March 24.

But the goal for New York isn't just to make a deep playoff run.

“We want to get to the Finals. And we should win the Finals. This is sports, and anything can happen. But getting to the Finals, we absolutely got to do," said Knicks owner James Dolan in January.

The Knicks look to bounce back tonight after dropping back-to-back losses against the Hornets and Thunder.

The Rockets are currently sixth in the Western Conference with a 3.5-game lead over the Phoenix Suns. Kevin Durant has been Houston's most consistent player, leading the Rockets with 25.9 points per game. Durant, now 37, looks to lead his fifth franchise to the playoffs.

How to watch New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets:

  • When: Tuesday, March 31
  • Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NBC
  • Live Stream:Peacock

RELATED:NBA power rankings 2025-26 - Championship tiers are back and San Antonio is on top of them

What other NBA games are on Peacock tonight?

  • Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Clippers - 11:00 PM ET

How to watch the NBA on NBC and Peacock:

Peacock NBA Monday will stream up to three Monday night games each week throughout the regular season. Coast 2 Coast Tuesday presents doubleheaders on Tuesday nights throughout the regular season on NBC and Peacock. On most Tuesdays, an 8 p.m. ET game will be on NBC stations in the Eastern and Central time zones, and an 8 p.m. PT game on NBC stations in the Pacific and often Mountain time zones.

Check local listings each week. Both games will stream live nationwide on Peacock. Sunday Night Basketball coverage will also be available on NBC and Peacock. For a full schedule of the NBA on NBC and Peacock, click here.

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Sign up here to watch all of our LIVE sports, sports shows, documentaries, classic matches, and more. You'll also get tons of hit movies and TV shows, Originals, news, 24/7 channels, and current NBC & Bravo hits—Peacock is here for whatever you’re in the mood for.

NBA on NBC 2025-26 Schedule:

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Dallas Mavericks won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago
All of the NBA’s ideas make the lottery bigger — 18 to 22 teams — and flatten the odds.

Who is officiating Final Four in 2026? NCAA releases full list

The NCAA announced its officiating crew for the Final Four of the 2026 men's NCAA Tournament on Monday, March 30.

Only No. 2 seed Connecticut, No. 3 Illinois and No. 1 seeds Michigan and Arizona remain in March Madness after each school won their respective region to secure their trips to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the Final Four site this year. UConn faces Illinois and Michigan takes on Arizona for spots in the national championship.

Michigan and Arizona have been dominant all season and in the Men's NCAA Tournament, and their Final Four matchup is shaping up to be one of the most-anticipated games in recent years. The Wolverines are coming off a 95-62 win over No. 6 Tennessee in the Elite Eight, with the Wildcats took down No. 2 Purdue, 79-64.

The Huskies, meanwhile, defeated top-seeded Duke on a last-second 3-pointer from true freshman Braylon Mullins. Illinois punched its ticket after beating fellow Big Ten foe No. 9 Iowa, 71-59.

Here's a look at the full officiating crew for the Final Four in 2026, which is certainly going to appease all college basketball fans:

Who is officiating the Final Four in 2026?

The NCAA didn't announce specific game assignments but did announce the 11 officials selected for the Final Four in 2026. Here's the full list:

  • Jeff Anderson
  • James Breeding
  • Lee Cassell
  • Ron Groover
  • Keith Kimble
  • Kipp Kissinger
  • Greg Nixon
  • Marques Pettigrew
  • Doug Shows
  • Doug Sirmons
  • Paul Szelc

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Final Four officials: Who is officiating Men's NCAA Tournament?

Where to watch Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Tuesday, March 31

The Los Angeles Lakers can clinch the Pacific Division title and a playoff berth with a victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Luka Doncic is returning from his one-game suspension for the Lakers, who are favored by 1.5 points with a -135 moneyline in a matchup against the Cavaliers.

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 47-28 (No. 2 in Central Division)

  • Los Angeles Lakers: 49-26 (No. 1 in Pacific Division)

  • Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -1.5

  • Moneyline: Los Angeles Lakers -135 / Cleveland Cavaliers 110

  • Over/Under: 236.5

Florida's Olivier Rioux, a 7-foot-9 center, enters transfer portal

The tallest player in college basketball history is headed elsewhere next season.

Florida center Olivier Rioux, a 7-foot-9 redshirt freshman, intends to enter the transfer portal, he announced on social media on Tuesday, March 31. The window to transfer opens April 7 — the day after the national championship on Monday, April 6 — and ends April 21.

"After taking time to reflect on my journey and what's best for my future, I've decided to enter the transfer portal," he wrote as part of a longer message.

Rioux played limited minutes in 2025-26, scoring seven total points in 17 minutes. He became both the tallest player to ever score in an NCAA Tournament and SEC conference game this season, and could be an interesting prospect for teams to take a shot on if he's able to develop, given his other-worldly size.

The Quebec, Canada, native attended IMG Academy, a popular prep high school in Bradenton, Florida, before securing a preferred a roster spot at Florida. He was a 3-star recruit, according to 247Sports' Composite, with reported offers from Florida Atlantic and Stetson, before choosing the Gators.

He has experience with Canada's national team, having played a significant role for multiple of its younger squads. He averaged 4.5 points with 4.5 rebounds per game in Canada's U18 FIBA AmeriCup bronze medal win in 2023.

Rioux won a national championship at Florida in 2024-25, although he redshirted that season, focusing on development with the Gators' scout team. After being on back-to-back No. 1 seeds, perhaps he's ready for more substantial player time next season, albeit with a different school.

Olivier Rioux dunk vs Prairie View A&M

Rioux grabbed an offensive rebound before throwing down a dunk in which he barely had to jump in Florida's first-round win over No. 16 seed Prairie View A&M in the NCAA Tournament. The crowd expectedly went wild after he scored, given his popularity.

Rioux's final game at Florida was his best showing, although it came during Florida's 60-plus point lead. He scored two points with two rebounds and an assist in two minutes of action. He was also responsible for one of the viral moments of the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament, when he towered over Prairie View A&M's 6-foot-8 Hassane Diallo.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Florida's 7-9 center Olivier Rioux enters transfer portal

Fantasy Basketball Stock Up, Stock Down: Can managers count on LeBron to win them a championship?

Welcome to Week 23, better known as Championship Week for most fantasy leagues. As the NBA prepares for its final full week of action, injuries and seeding are among the most important factors at this time of year. Who can you ultimately trust to bring valuable production to close the season? Who should you maybe avoid? We have some suggestions.

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→ Watch the NBA Coast 2 Coast Tuesday on NBC and Peacock: The Magic and the Cavaliers will tip things off at 8 p.m. ET before the Suns and Nuggets square off at 11 p.m. ET. Both games are available on Peacock. Check your local listings for the NBC game in your area.

STOCK UP

Daniss Jenkins, PG/SG, Pistons

The Pistons essentially have hardly missed a beat after losing superstar point guard Cade Cunningham to a collapsed lung in the middle of March. Jenkins has played some good ball in the seven games since being elevated to the starting lineup as an injury replacement, averaging 18.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per game. Those are not quite Cunningham-type numbers, but impactful ones nonetheless. Jenkins' biggest moment came in a 30-point performance in a win over the Lakers recently, which was immediately followed by a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double. The sophomore guard isn’t someone who fantasy managers should necessarily lock in for big games on a nightly basis. However, the floor seems high, considering the current role and workload; any strong stat lines shouldn’t be surprising.

Gary Trent Jr., SG/SF, Bucks

Need scoring? Need three-pointers? Trent Jr. may be your guy! Although his 2025-26 season has been one of his least impressive in years, he finds himself currently back in the starting rotation for a Bucks team that is officially eliminated from the playoffs, dealing with several key injuries, and has just cut the guard who was likely occupying some of Trent Jr.’s backcourt minutes off the bench. In other words, he’s in a good position to play freely without much pressure, which he’s done effectively over the past week. The eighth-year guard has had 18-point, 20-point, and 36-point games in his most recent run, while tallying 20 made triples over the last four games. He’s surely capable of some lows — see his zero-point, 0-of-7 shooting outing against the Trail Blazers on March 25 — but his highs provide quality fantasy value for those in pursuit of three-point scoring.

Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF, Nuggets

Speaking of three-point shooting, how many players in the league off the bench are more capable of setting the nets on fire than Hardaway Jr.? He’s been filling such a role since his playoff runs with the Mavericks, and now appears to be gearing up for another significant one in his first year with the Nuggets. The veteran sharpshooter has drained at least four three-pointers in four of his last six games, scoring at least 16 points in each. There’s little else being contributed from a fantasy standpoint, so Hardaway Jr.’s appeal likely would be for those fantasy managers in category leagues. If three-point production is needed, THJ is a qualified streaming option.

STOCK DOWN

Quentin Grimes, SG/SF, 76ers

“No Paul George. No Tyrese Maxey. No Joel Embiid. Just lots of Quentin Grimes lately,” — me, in last week’s column, labeling Grimes as a “Stock Up” performer. Well, each of those injured stars has returned, and now Grimes’ production has decreased significantly, and quickly. He’s, understandably, coming off the bench now and seeing far fewer attempts over his past three games, totaling 33 points, 12 rebounds, and 12 assists. Grimes’ most recent performance, an 11-point, five-rebound, four-assist line against the Hornets, reflects the type of numbers that should be considered as realistic moving forward, given his decreased role. The Sixers are both trying to cement a playoff spot while getting their core group acclimated and back in the flow ahead of the postseason. It may not be a good idea to rely on Grimes during Championship Week.

LeBron James, SF/PF, Lakers

It feels very weird to put a player of this caliber and status into the Stock Down category, but the numbers represent a player who probably shouldn’t be counted on to consistently put up game-changing numbers. To be fair, James, in Year 23, is coming off a triple-double against the Wizards on Monday. But for context, that was in a game that Luka Doncic missed to serve a one-game suspension. When the team has been healthy recently, James has logged stat lines that reflect a more measured approach and a seemingly backseat role to his teammates as the Lakers continue to collect wins. Barring key absences, it’s hard to see the formula changing much down the stretch of the season. Shout out to LeBron, though, for being able to adapt and play whichever role is required at the time.

Jay Huff, C, Pacers

Huff began March with five consecutive double-digit scoring performances and multiple three-pointers in each contest — his ending to the month hasn’t been quite as productive. Over his last five appearances, the floor-spacing center has failed to reach double figures in points four times and combined to shoot 6-of-16 from beyond the arc. His recent slippage isn’t a grand one; rather, it could be considered a letdown, based on the highs he’s reached at points this season, and how big his role could be on a banged-up Pacers team. Huff should still be in position to end the season strong. However, it’s difficult to get a feel for what to expect from him on a nightly basis.

Spurs vs. Bulls player grades: Victor Wembanyama looks like the MVP

SAN ANTONIO, TX -MARCH 30: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs dunks over Guerschon Yabusele #28 of the Chicago Bulls in the first half at Frost Bank Center on March 30, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The San Antonio Spurs extended their winning streak to nine against the shorthanded Chicago Bulls on Monday night. San Antonio dominated the game in a 129-114 blowout. The Spurs used a 35-19 second quarter to build a lead and never looked back, despite Chicago’s best efforts to keep the game close.

Victor Wembanyama once again looked like an MVP candidate as he’s made a late push to win the award. He single-handedly dominated the game on both ends, helping the Spurs breeze to an easy victory. He’ll headline a new series of articles for every game through the end of the season, where we grade each player on their performance.

These grades are based on each player’s on-court performance, going beyond just the stat sheet. So if someone makes a clutch shot or gets beaten repeatedly on defense, that will be accounted for. A “B” grade represents the average performance for an individual.

Victor Wembanyama

31 minutes, 41 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal, 2 turnovers, 2 fouls, 17-for-27 shooting, 3-for-6 threes, +15

Wembanyama owned the entire game. The Bulls didn’t have the size to compete with San Antonio’s big man in the paint. He got everything he wanted at the rim and knocked down three triples, including a clutch shot at the end of the first half as time expired. Defensively, he was up to his usual tricks, keeping the Bulls out of the paint whenever he was in the game. The game was another MVP-level statement. There aren’t many players who can completely own a game on both ends like Wembanyama.

Wembanyama currently trails Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in MVP odds on FanDuel at +300.

Grade: A+

Julian Champagnie

28 minutes, 13 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 foul, 5-for-7 shooting, 3-for-5 threes, +9

It was a pretty meh game from Champagnie. Early on, the Bulls were going at him defensively and getting some easy buckets. He made up for it by having an efficient shooting night on the other end, only missing two shots. Champagnie’s three-point shooting is a swing skill for San Antonio. When he’s knocking down threes off screens and in catch-and-shoot opportunities, the Spurs offense is hard to stop.

Grade: B

Devin Vassell

31 minutes, 6 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 2 fouls, 2-for-9 shooting, 2-for-4 threes, +20

It’s hard to complain too much about a player who is +20 in a blowout win. Vassell wasn’t knocking down shots inside the arc, but did go 50% from three. Vassell’s floor spacing makes the Spurs offense run smoothly even if he’s missing shots at the rim or in the mid-range. He also had an emphatic swat in the fourth quarter that was called a goaltend, but for a thrilling few seconds, it was an awesome highlight.

Grade: C+

Stephon Castle

35 minutes, 21 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 steal, 4 turnovers, 1 foul, 6-for-12 shooting, 3-for-6 threes, +24

Castle was two rebounds shy of his second-straight triple-double. Once again, he was dependable from three, hitting 50% of his six attempts beyond the arc. He didn’t finish at the rim as consistently as he usually does, and he made some pretty silly turnovers early in the game. However, the Spurs were much better with him on the court than with him on the bench, and he put up some big numbers in the win.

Grade: B+

De’Aaron Fox

23 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 2 turnovers, 2 fouls, 3-for-8 shooting, 0-for-3 threes, +9

Fox struggled quite a bit in a game where he wasn’t necessarily needed. Wembanyama had a clear offensive advantage inside, where he demanded the ball. Castle and Dylan Harper were providing plenty of rim pressure. It felt like another one of those games where Fox takes a back seat and kind of floats offensively. When he did take shots, he was way off, especially from deep. Games like this are fine in March against the Bulls, but a bad Fox game in April and May could mean a playoff loss.

Grade: C-

Harrison Barnes

17 minutes, 3 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 2 turnovers, 1 foul, 1-for-5 shooting, 0-for-2 threes, -5

Barnes has been hot and cold lately. Monday night was a frigid one for HB. The veteran couldn’t find an offensive rhythm. He had a solid drive on a smaller defender in the first half, but other than that, he didn’t make much of an impact off the bench. Maybe Barnes is saving it all for the playoffs?

Grade: D

Keldon Johnson

26 minutes, 15 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 turnover, 5-for-11 shooting, 2-for-5 threes, +5

Chicago is the type of team Johnson can thrive against. They are smaller and aren’t great at transition defense. KJ was able to get into the paint and score against the Bulls with his bully-ball-like drives. He was a key part of the Spurs’ big run in the second quarter that helped them eventually win the game. His spark plug play off the bench continues to be good enough to put him in the Sixth Man of the Year chase.

Grade: B+

Carter Bryant

6 minutes, 0 points, 0-for-1 shooting, 0-for-1 threes, -4

As the playoffs approach, the rotation is tightening. Bryant has been getting squeezed out lately as the team prepares for the postseason. He played sparingly against Chicago and didn’t register a single statistic.

Grade: C

Luke Kornet

19 minutes, 10 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 fouls, 4-for-5 shooting, -8

Kornet has to have one of the toughest jobs in the NBA. It’s easy for him to look bad compared to his starter. Nobody scores on Wembanyama at the rim, so when Kornet comes into the game and gives up a bucket in the paint, it’s easy for fans to feel frustrated. All things considered, it was a fairly solid game from Kornet. Chicago was able to attack the basket more freely when he was in the game, but he made up for it on the other end by finishing plays efficiently.

Grade: B-

Dylan Harper

24 minutes, 13 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover, 1 block, 4 fouls, 6-for-11 shooting, 1-for-2 threes, +4

Harper made an immediate impact when he subbed in the game. He knocked down a three and got to the rim a few times. He’s been super efficient at the rim this month, shooting 67.4% on drives, good enough for 3rd in the NBA. His jump shot is looking better, especially in catch-and-shoot situations. He’s also one of the best perimeter defenders on the team (even if he could afford to foul less). Harper looks ready to make an impact in the playoffs.

Grade: B+

Monday’s Inactives: Harrison Ingram, David Jones-Garcia, Emanuel Miller

Open end of season mailbag (Topic Tuesday)

BOSTON, MA - MARCH 6: Jayson Tatum #0 and Head Coach Joe Mazzulla of the Boston Celtics hug during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on March 6, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The Boston Celtics sit at 50-25 with 7 games remaining in the regular season. Not too bad for a “Gap year” right Jaylen?

Note this conclusion I wrote in the linked article above:

Unless something very weird and wonderful occurs next season, we won’t be raising Banner #19. But there’s enough interest and intrigue to keep us watching and following this team. At some point next season there will be a stretch where the vision starts coming together and you’ll be able to squint and say, “imagine adding a top-5 player in the NBA to this group.” Because soon enough, that’s gonna happen.

Turns out it was sooner than I ever could have imagined. Perhaps something “weird and wonderful” is occurring before our very eyes. Can’t wait to see how it develops in the playoffs.

Before we get there, however, let’s take a moment or two to reflect on the regular season. What questions do you still have as we finish out the season? Any thoughts on regular season awards? Want to make fun of me for my early season skepticism? I’m open to topics on all things.

Also, if you are the kind of person that’s always looking forward, give us your questions on the playoffs (matchups, rotations, predictions) or even the upcoming offseason (draft, free agency, etc.).

Leave your questions in the comments section below. As always, I’ll give it a few days and try to answer as many questions that I can. I don’t claim to be all-knowing, just a humble blogger that has been doing this for exactly 21 years (as of today – cheers!).

Mavericks vs. Bucks: 3 Notes before Dallas visits Milwaukee

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 10: Ryan Rollins #13 of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles the ball during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on November 10, 2025 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The Dallas Mavericks (24-51) will make a quick trip north to face the Milwaukee Bucks (29-45) for a makeup game that was originally scheduled for January 25. Due to a winter storm that left the Mavericks stranded on the runway for several hours, the game was suspended and eventually moved to March 31.

The matchup will not feature Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who remains out due to a knee injury. Milwaukee will also be without Kevin Porter Jr. (knee), Bobby Portis (wrist), and Thanasis Antetokounmpo (knee). Gary Harris (personal) is listed as questionable. That leaves the spotlight on emerging Bucks star Ryan Rollins and the Mavericks’ own Cooper Flagg. The injury report for the Mavs has Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington listed as questionable (illness), Marvin Bagley (shoulder), and Caleb Martin (heel) as doubtful. 

It’s warming up outside, but Dallas and Milwaukee didn’t get the memo, because both are ice cold entering Tuesday’s matchup. The Bucks, who were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday, are 2-8 in their past 10 games. The Mavericks are 3-7 in their past 10 games. Here are three notes to keep in mind ahead of Tuesday night.

The Bucks are low hanging fruit

The vibes in Cream City suck. It’s no secret that the past two seasons have been disastrous for the Mavericks, but the Bucks aren’t far behind. Milwaukee was supposed to be in the East’s elite after snagging Damian Lillard, to pair him with franchise star Giannis Antetokounmpo. But the results were disappointing. Following a 2024 first-round exit to the Pacers, the Bucks entered last season with renewed hope that they could gain some traction with their new star duo and head coach Doc Rivers. Lillard suffered a ruptured Achilles in the first round of the 2025 playoffs and ultimately played his last game as a Buck. He was waived in the 2025 offseason, and Milwaukee owes him $22 million a year for the next five years.

The Antetokounmpo soap opera will enter another offseason, after the Bucks entertained offers up until the trade deadline but ultimately decided to hang onto their star. He has all but demanded a trade, but with Antetokounmpo wanting to compete for a championship and Milwaukee going nowhere fast, it’s likely he’s played his last game in a Bucks uniform.

Entering Tuesday, the Bucks have a plethora of injuries, have lost 14 of 17 games, and are desperately limping to the finish line of the season. They have the NBA’s fifth-worst defense, giving up 119.1 points per 100 possessions. The Mavericks’ schedule the past month has been one of the hardest in the NBA, and Dallas has only lost one game by double digits in the past two weeks – last night against Minnesota. They’re competing. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has seemingly lost its soul from another weary season. If there’s a game for the Mavericks to get another surprising win on the road, this one makes sense.

Should Marvin Bagley III be here next season?

Most of the chatter about the 2018 draft centers around how the Mavericks and Hawks swapped Doncic and Young. It’s often forgotten that Marvin Bagley III was drafted second overall ahead of both. Bagley has had an underwhelming career, but part of that could be the cultures he’s been exposed to. What is your actual ceiling if most of your career has been with the Kings and Wizards? Co-interim GMs Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley were excited about the idea of bringing Bagley to Dallas as part of the Anthony Davis trade, and the results beg the question – should Bagley be in Dallas next season?

This season, Bagley is averaging 10.3 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. With the Mavericks, he’s averaging 10.6 points and 7.1 rebounds. And perhaps most importantly, he’s played in 56 games this season. For Dallas and big men, the best ability is availability, and Bagley is that.

Dallas will be limited in bringing Bagley back next season since they only have his non-bird rights. He’s on a minimum $2.2 million deal this season, but with his production this year, teams could (and probably will) offer him a bigger payday. The most the Mavericks can offer him next season is $3.7 million, unless Dallas decides to pay him part of the mid-level exception. However, splitting the MLE isn’t ideal, as it limits the Mavs in signing other high-caliber role players.

Bagley’s future in Dallas may be uncertain, but we know one thing for sure. He’s on the court and can add high-quality minutes to a big man rotation that’s seen its fair share of injury problems.

Cooper Flagg is finding his shot (again)

In his first five games after returning from a left foot injury, Cooper Flagg shot 27-94 from the floor, 28.7%. He also shot a dismal 3-15 from three, 20%. We’re throwing out last night’s game against the Timberwolves, since it’s more of an exception to the rule.  In his eight games since (minus last night), Flagg has shot 71-139 from the floor – 51% and 5-23 from three, 21.7%. The three-point shot needs work, but his polish at the rim has returned, and the jump shot looks smooth. During this last eight-game stretch, Flagg is averaging 23.8 points, 6.8 assists, and 6.0 rebounds per game. On the defensive end, he’s adding 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks per game.

Kon Knueppel may ultimately win Rookie of the Year, as his Hornets are looking for their first playoff berth since 2016. But Flagg’s impact on both ends is what makes him arguably the most complete rookie since LeBron James. And similar to James in his early years, Flagg only has one noticeable weakness – his shot.

The NBA is a shooter’s league. Flagg is good in just about every measurable (and non-measurable) way. But his shot, particularly his three-point shot, needs work. This should be a priority for the 19-year-old this offseason. He’ll figure it out. And once he does, he’ll be truly unstoppable.

How to watch

Milwaukee and Dallas are both trying to get to the end of their respective seasons. With injuries and drama derailing the past two years for each franchise, both have their sights set on the offseason. But to get there, you have to play the games. And while wins have come few and far between for both sides, someone will come away victorious. And at the end of the day, it’s another opportunity for Mavs fans to enjoy watching Cooper Flagg play basketball. He’s one of one.

The Mavs and Bucks tip off at 7PM CT from the Fiserv Forum. You can watch on KFAA Channel 29, Mavs TV, or NBA League Pass. Go Mavs!

Tiebreaker vs. Pistons could be anyone’s game

DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 11: The Toronto Raptors celebrates during the game against the Detroit Pistons on January 11, 2024 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

After an up-and-down road trip the Raptors returned home to win two straight games in a dominant fashion. Now, they embark for a single away game to face the Detroit Pistons for their third and final contest of the season.

Currently 1-1 in prior matchups, Toronto won the most recent game by double-digits only two weeks ago. They also have a rest advantage, but with both teams missing prominent players due to injury, this could be anyone’s game and ultimately come down to effort.

At this point in the season, most games are “must-win”. Tied with Atlanta but holding the tie-breaker, they continue to try to avoid a play-in game. Only 3.5 games separate them from 10th, so there’s little margin for error here. Detroit has a comfortable 4-game lead in first, but wouldn’t want to give away the lead to Boston either.

Without Quickley, the facilitation game will likely be what the Pistons attack. Detroit is a tough, physical team, who leads the league in steals with 10.5 per game. Protecting the ball and limiting turnovers will also limit extra possessions and scoring opportunities for Detroit. Toronto will have to look to Scottie and Shead for most of the playmaking as both have shown an ability to facilitate for the team.

The Raptors are also going to be limited in scorers potentially missing BI, RJ, and IQ. Hopefully at least one of RJ or BI is available, but in the event that neither is, Scottie will have to have a performance warranted of his All-Star nod tonight. Jak could have another strong performance, and Ja’Kobe has had a great season so far and could chip in to help keep them afloat. Preventing lapses on defence that could give up points that would be difficult to earn back could be the key here.

Another challenge for Toronto will be the lack of bodies on the court. With the lengthy injury report, guys are likely going to see more minutes than they’re accustomed to. Pace and transition play, both things that require tremendous effort and energy are going to be a challenge when doing it for that long. This is great conditioning for the playoffs, especially playing fatigued in the fourth quarter and needing to execute effectively. This execution has been another struggle for them this season, one that needs to be worked out before the playoffs.

Probable Starters

Toronto: Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, RJ Barrett, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead

Detroit: Ausar Thompson, Daniss Jenkins, Kevin Huerter, Jalen Duren, Tobias Harris

Injury Report

Toronto: RJ Barrett (Probable: Shoulder stiffness), Jamison Battle (Out: Not with team), Chucky Hepburn (Out: G-League), Brandon Ingram (Questionable: Heel inflammation), Trayce Jackson-Davis (Out: G-League), Collin Murray-Boyles (Questionable: Back spasms), Immanuel Quickley (Out: Plantar fasciitis)

Detroit: Cade Cunningham (Out: Chest), Isaiah Stewart (Out: Calf)

Where to Watch

Tune in at 8pm ET on Sportsnet!

LeBron Puts on a Masterclass, Wizards Forget to Guard Him (Literally)

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 30: Justin Champagnie #9 of the Washington Wizards drives to the basket during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on March 30, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The Wizards final West coast trip of the 2025-26 season ended about the way you’d expect — with a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. The final margin was only 19. The game itself didn’t feel that close, which is pretty normal for the Wizards this season.

Both the Wizards and Lakers shot poorly from three-point range — Washington, a mind-numbing 20.0%; the Lakers a merely bad 29.2%. The Lakers won on the boards (+15 rebound advantage) and by making twos at a much better clip. LA converted 67.3% of their shots inside the arc, and Washington just 58.6%.

LeBron James put on a pick-and-roll masterclass and notched a triple-double to help the Lakers beat Washington. | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Lakers also won from the free throw line. They earned twice as many trips to the free throw line and outscored Washington 25-12 on foul shots.

The preceding should not be read as complaining about the refs. The Lakers drove frequently, and the Wizards are a group that struggles to defend without fouling. Which is to say, Washington gets beat at the point of attack and then does a lot of reaching and grabbing and swiping, which often draws whistles. They’re also antsy, which in this case is a euphemism for man do they bite on ball fakes a lot.

To be honest, in a lot of ways it felt like the Lakers had some mercy (or perhaps a different agenda) on the offensive end last night. Washington was utterly incapable of doing anything to slow LeBron James and Austin Reaves pick-and-roll actions. In fact, they had a difficult time handling James setting ball screens for anyone.

As an aside, what James is doing this season is impressive. He’s spent his entire life with the ball in his hands. He’s been the guy others set screens to get loose. Now in his 23rd season, he’s setting ball screens (something he rarely did in his previous 22 years in the NBA) and playing as a third option when Luka Doncic is on the floor.

As for the Wizards, Justin Champagnie made shots. There’s a cranky old man vibe to his game, which seems to morph into bemusement when things get physical. He also tends to play hard, and he has a kind of sneaky Jeff Green-esque athleticism. It seems like he’s just kinda gliding along like a normie NBA athlete, and then suddenly he’s throwing down a dunk over a seven-footer or blocking a shot above the box. He was pretty good last night — 18 points on 12 shots.

Tristan Vukcevic notched a decent PPA score, though I did not think he played well. He ended the night with four steals and a block in 20 minutes, which is a lot. His overall defensive effort wasn’t good, in my view.

Jaden Hardy came off the bench to score 11 points on eight shots in 23 minutes. He had several genuinely good defensive possessions against James (the elder one), and grabbed five rebounds. I’m intrigued enough by his shooting and offensive aggressiveness to want to see him in extended action the final seven games. By “extended,” I mean 30+ minutes per night with maybe 2-3 starts mixed in.

Thoughts & Observations

  • It’s interesting how context can change the value of a player’s performance. Rui Hachimura with the Lakers is basically the same as he was in Washington, though with fewer rebounds, lower usage and higher efficiency. The latter two go together. In Washington, he had to carry a heavier creation load because the team didn’t have anyone else. In Los Angeles, he plays in the space created by Doncic, James, and Reaves and can take mostly open shots. He was always a good shooter (former assistant coaches told me he routinely won the team’s shooting contests in Washington). In LA, he gets easier shots.
  • Early in the first quarter, Hachimura drove a closeout on Will Riley that was an example of Washington’s defensive challenges. First, Riley was late on the closeout and off balance. Hachimura turned down an open three to drive. Riley recovered enough to run along a step behind but had no impact on the play. Meanwhile, Vukcevic was late to rotate, didn’t get into help position, and then was weak on top of it all. Hachimura ended up with a nearly ayup line finish.
  • Riley had a lot of trouble contending with Hachimura. He needs to spend a lot of time in the weight room getting stronger this offseason.
  • Vukcevic gave a Kornet contest on a three-point attempt in the first quarter. Reaves missed.
  • I didn’t think that I would ever write this sentence, but…On one possession, the Wizards forgot to guard LeBron James. Seriously, at 6:20 in the first quarter, literally no one matched up with arguably the best player in basketball history.
  • Stat from the Lakers broadcast: Doncic this season is the first player in Lakers franchise history to accumulate 2,000+ points, 500+ assists, and 100+ steals in the same season.
  • Another tidbit: Last night, James tied Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for all-time wins as a player, including playoffs. The LA victory was 1,228th time James has been on the winning team. Tim Duncan is third at 1,158, followed by Robert Parish at 1,121, and Karl Malone at 1,050.
  • It’s a shame Anthony Gill isn’t 10-12 years younger. With a steady diet of playing time this season, he seems to be figuring out how he can be successful in the NBA. He’s attacking closeouts, using ball fakes to create openings, and he competes hard on defense and on the boards despite giving up size and strength advantages to most of his matchups.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORSWIZARDSLAKERSLGAVG
eFG%47.8%60.1%54.5%
OREB%11.4%24.3%26.0%
TOV%9.0%15.0%12.7%
FTM/FGA0.1290.3160.207
PACE10099.3
ORTG101120115.6

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Justin Champagnie275614819.5%3.617211
Tristan Vukcevic204210431.2%-1.4138-16
Anthony Gill36751429.5%1.976-21
Jaden Hardy224712015.8%0.3109-12
Tre Johnson23488723.6%-3.259-3
Jamir Watkins27579020.6%-3.043-14
Will Riley36759125.9%-4.730-22
Sharife Cooper20427119.7%-3.7-332
Bub Carrington28597618.7%-4.4-24-20
LAKERSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
LeBron James336911032.9%-1.319625
Jaxson Hayes204119819.6%6.736318
Luke Kennard234816220.3%4.527020
Deandre Ayton224714916.3%2.52209
Austin Reaves275710838.4%-1.81376
Jake LaRavia28581494.9%0.912123
Rui Hachimura265312516.2%0.81099
Jarred Vanderbilt23489012.4%-1.5805
Bronny James26535220.5%-7.0-1094
Dalton Knecht486012.9%-0.60-8
Drew Timme6122372.1%0.3-23-8
Kobe Bufkin369727.9%-0.3-61-8

Game Preview: Knicks at Rockets, March 31, 2026

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 21: Jabari Smith Jr. #10 of the Houston Rockets shoots the ball against Mitchell Robinson #23 of the New York Knicks during the second quarter at Madison Square Garden on February 21, 2026 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Tonight, the Knicks (48*-27) visit the Rockets (45-29) at the Toyota Center. New York has clinched a playoff berth, but need to get through a challenging slate in order to keep their third slot—or catch the 50-win Celtics. Houston is one of five over-.500 teams standing between the Knicks and the finish line. The Texans have been solid at home (25-10) and are motivated to win, as they sit in the thick of the Western playoff picture.

The teams last met on February 21 in New York, where the Knicks rallied from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 108-106. Karl-Anthony Towns had 25 points, Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby both added 20, and New York limited their foes to 15 points in the fourth quarter. Kevin Durant scored 30 for the visitors and tweeted about the game from four burner accounts.

The Rockets score 114.4 points per game and allow 110.1, showing a balanced but efficient attack. They rely on interior dominance, athleticism on the wings, and spacing when healthy. Houston rates ninth for offense and eighth for defense.

Alperen Şengün anchors the frontcourt with 20.7 points, nine rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game while shooting efficiently inside. Durant provides elite scoring (around 26 PPG) and spacing as a knockdown shooter. Amen Thompson (17.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG) delivers two-way athleticism. Jabari Smith Jr. (15.6 PPG) adds floor-spacing and versatility up front.

On New York’s injury front, Landry Shamet remains OUT with a right knee contusion. Miles McBride is listed as questionable after crashing into Lu Dort in his first game back from hernia surgery. Nothing new to report for Houston.

Prediction

ESPN gives the Knicks a 57% chance. That’s a safe bet. In their February meeting, the Knicks showed they can hang and make comebacks, but on the road in Houston, execution on both ends will be crucial. For New York to stay competitive, Brunson needs to control the tempo and create advantages, the bigs must battle Sengün on the glass and in the paint, and the defense has to limit Houston’s transition buckets. Should be a competitive affair that is decided late, with another late clampdown by our heroes. Knicks by four.

Game Details

Who: New York Knicks (48*-27) at Houston Rockets (45-29)
Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Time: 8 PM ET
Place: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
TV: NBC
Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky

* Should be one more, but the NBA Cup win was forgotten on the tarmac.

University of Arizona warns fans about fake Final Four merchandise

The University of Arizona Wildcats are heading to their first Men's NCAA Tournament Final Four in 25 years, but amid the excitement, fans are being warned to watch out for counterfeit merchandise.

The university’s campus store received its first shipment of official Final Four merchandise this week and quickly sold out, according to 13 News Tucson, Arizona. With official gear in short supply, many fans have turned to unauthorized retailers and online stores to find merchandise.

The university is urging fans not to purchase from unlicensed vendors, citing concerns about product quality and the risks of consumer fraud and money laundering.

Cat Hanson, Trademarks and Licensing Program Manager at the University of Arizona, told 13 News that fans can protect themselves by shopping at the campus store or authorized pop-up locations and looking for key authenticity markers on official merchandise. Every official Final Four shirt will feature a hologram sticker, and fans should also verify that spelling and colors are correct.

The top-seeded Wildcats punched their ticket to the Final Four for the first time since 2001 with an impressive 79-64 victory over No. 2-seeded Purdue. Arizona will face No. 1-seeded Michigan on April 4.

Authorized pop-up shops information

According to 13 News, authentic Arizona merchandise can be purchased at the following locations, with the pop-up shop hours being 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. from March 30 to April 9:

  • Campus Store
  • Park & Speedway pop-up shop
  • Park & 6th St pop-up shop
  • Speedway & Campbell pop-up shop
  • Maingate pop-up shop
  • Football Stadium parking lot pop-up shop
  • Campbell & 6th pop-up shop
  • Hi Corbett parking lot pop-up shop

How to watch the men's Final Four

This year’s Final Four will be held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. In the first semifinal, No. 3 Illinois takes on No. 2 UConn at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 4, followed by the matchup between No. 1 Arizona and No. 1 Michigan at 8:49 p.m. ET. Both games can be watched on TBS.

  • Game 1: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn | Saturday, April 4 | 6:09 p.m. | TBS | Sling TV
  • Game 2: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan | Saturday, April 4 | 8:49 p.m. | TBS | Sling TV

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Arizona warns fans to be aware of fake Final Four merchandise

Playoff/Play-in Tracker: How things stand post-Miami

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 30: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat and Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers talk during a free throw in thew fourth quarter of a game at Kaseya Center on March 30, 2026 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Sixers sit at 41-34 with 7 games left on the schedule, which coincidentally puts them smack in the middle of one of the most chaotic playoff races the Eastern Conference has seen in years.

These standings are shifting every single night, and honestly, keeping up with every tiebreaker, box score and late-game collapse feels like a part-time job nobody applied for. So let’s cut through the noise. Where are the Sixers right now, who’s standing in their way, and what does the playoff picture actually look like as we head down the stretch?

To start, let’s get a clear picture of the standings. We’ll focus on the 5 through 10 range, since that’s exactly where the Sixers are sitting and where they’ll likely finish.

  1. Toronto Raptors 42-32
  2. Atlanta Hawks 43-33

(play-in)

  1. Philadelphia 76ers 41-34
  2. Orlando Magic 39-35
  3. Miami Heat 40-36
  4. Charlotte Hornets 39-36

As things stand, the Sixers are on the outside looking in for a guaranteed playoff seed. That said, there’s still a real chance they can climb up — a loss or two from the right team can completely flip the playoff and play-in picture overnight. So let’s go team by team, break down the tiebreakers, and figure out the likelihood of the Sixers catching up to, or staying ahead of, each one.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are the current leaders of this group and have been playing some of their best basketball lately, most recently dismantling the Orlando Magic while holding their grip on the 5 seed. As of this writing, Toronto sits 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and owns the 10th easiest remaining schedule, with matchups against the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Heat (twice), Nets, Kings and Grizzlies.

The season series ended in a 2-2 tie, so the tiebreaker defaults to division record. The Sixers are 9-7 in the Atlantic while the Raptors are a rough 4-10, meaning Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker if the two teams finish level. Worth noting, two of Toronto’s three “easy” remaining games come right away, before a brutal closing stretch of Celtics, Heat twice and Knicks to close out four of their final five.

Catching the Raptors in the short term seems unlikely, but that April 5-10 stretch will go a long way in determining whether Toronto stays out of the play-in altogether. If they slip against one of the tanking opponents early, the margin for error gets razor thin once you factor in the tiebreaker working in Philly’s favor.

Atlanta Hawks

CA-CAWWWWW. The Hawks have been an absolute problem lately, winning 16 of their last 18 to firmly plant themselves at the 6 seed. Unlike Toronto, Atlanta is staring down one of the tougher remaining schedules in this group, ranked 8th hardest, with games against the Knicks, Cavaliers twice, Magic and Heat. Their only breather on paper is a date with the Brooklyn Nets.

Here’s where it gets tricky for the Sixers: Atlanta outright owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, which effectively turns their 1.5 game lead into something closer to a 2.5 game lead in practice. The Sixers wouldn’t just need to match the Hawks, they’d need to pass them.

Atlanta tips off against the Magic tomorrow before getting the Nets on Friday, but from there it’s a gauntlet of playoff-caliber opponents with the Heat sprinkled in for good measure. The tiebreaker makes it hard to envision the Sixers leaping Atlanta, though that schedule could certainly hand the Hawks a few losses down the stretch.

Orlando Magic

The Magic, yet again, have had a turbulent season marked by questionable star play and their best players missing lengthy stretches at a time. It’s a big reason why they find themselves in the 8 seed. Their remaining schedule is slightly tougher than Philadelphia’s, with games against the Pistons, Celtics, Timberwolves, Hawks, Suns, Mavericks, Pelicans and Bulls.

What makes Orlando’s schedule interesting is the structure of it. They alternate two home games, two away, two home and two away to close things out. Of those eight games, five come against playoff teams, two against tanking squads and one against the New Orleans Pelicans, a team that probably should be tanking but simply can’t due to an outgoing unprotected pick.

The good news for Philly is that the Sixers own the tiebreaker over Orlando, winning the season series 2-1. The Magic currently sit a game and a half back, meaning they’d need to not only make up that ground but actually outpace the Sixers’ remaining record to leapfrog them. Unless Orlando wins at least three of those games against legitimate competition, it’s hard to see them pulling it off. Not impossible, but they’d have to earn it.

Miami Heat

Out of every team sitting below the Sixers, the Heat are the ones to watch. Thanks to owning the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, Miami doesn’t need to outplay the Sixers, they just need to match their record. And when you look at what’s left on their schedule, that’s a very realistic ask. Despite sitting 1.5 games back on paper, the tiebreaker makes this feel much closer to a half game lead in reality.

The Heat’s remaining schedule features the Celtics, Raptors twice, Hawks and Wizards twice, which checks in as the 6th easiest remaining slate in the league. Barring the Wizards deciding they’ve had enough disrespect after the whole Bam 83-point situation (did you catch that game? The NBC broadcast mentioned it once or twice, or like 20 times, very low key), you’re looking at maybe two or three losses for Miami at the absolute most.

That tiebreaker is massive. It puts the Heat firmly in control of their own destiny, and if the Sixers drop even one unexpected game, the math shifts in a hurry. Keep a close eye on Miami over the next week or two, and pay especially close attention to those two Raptors games. They’ll have major implications not just for the Heat, but for just about everyone in this conversation.

Charlotte Hornets

The Sixers took care of the Hornets a few nights ago in a game that went down to the wire, and out of every team in this group, Charlotte is the least likely candidate to climb out of the play-in. They sit two games behind Philadelphia with the ninth hardest remaining schedule.

The Hornets will face the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Timberwolves, Suns, Pacers and Nets. Two of those are against tanking teams, with five against playoff-caliber opponents. That said, it’s worth noting that some of the higher seeds like the Celtics or Pistons may start load managing their guys down the stretch to keep them fresh, which could make a game or two more winnable than it looks on paper.

There isn’t a ton to say about the Hornets right now, but don’t sleep on them entirely. Since the calendar flipped they’ve been one of the better teams on both ends of the floor, and they could become a real problem if the Sixers end up in the play-in. Losing the first play-in game and then having to face Charlotte to keep the season alive would not be a fun situation. For now they can stay on the back burner, but depending on how things shake out, the Hornets could end up being a much bigger part of this story than anyone expects.

Where Will the Sixers End Up?

Despite dropping a pretty important game to Miami, the Sixers are still within striking distance of a guaranteed playoff seed. The Heat are right on their heels though, and they might not be the only ones closing in.

Philadelphia’s remaining schedule is fairly middle of the road, with games against the Wizards, Timberwolves, Pistons, Spurs, Rockets, Pacers and Bucks to close out the year. There are some recognizable names on there, but load management from teams like Detroit or San Antonio could make a few of those games more manageable than they look. It’s also worth noting the final two games against the Pacers and Bucks are against tanking squads, which gives the Sixers the luxury of resting guys heading into the postseason if they’ve already locked something up or their playoff fate is sealed.

Tiebreaker-wise, the Sixers are in decent shape across the board. They’ll need to win some tough games to keep the postseason dream alive, but the good news is they now have the reinforcements to do it.

Most projections peg Philadelphia as the most likely 7 seed, which would put them in the play-in on their own home court. But a handful of games involving the teams around them could swing things in a number of directions. Here are the ones worth circling:

4/1 – Hawks @ Magic

4/7 – Heat @ Raptors

4/9 – Heat @ Raptors

4/12 – Hawks @ Heat

Beyond the Sixers’ own results, these four games could end up being the deciding factor in how the whole picture shakes out. It’s an uphill climb, but depending on how the cards fall, Philly could come out of this in a pretty good spot. Time will tell, as things are likely to come down to the literal wire.