The news of Deandre Ayton exercising his $8.1 player option for the 2026-27 season to stay with the Lakers wasn’t surprising.
Even with him outplaying the $8.1 salary he made from the Lakers in 2025-26 (he gave up $10 million of his $35.6 million contract in his buyout with the Trail Blazers last summer before signing with the Lakers), Ayton picking up his option for next season was the expected outcome.
And during an offseason the Lakers have prioritized optionality, they’ll still have options on how to improve the roster regardless of Ayton’s decision as they look to build a championship-contending group around superstar guard Luka Doncic and star guard Austin Reaves.
Deandre Ayton has picked up his $8.1M player option for the 2026-27 NBA season. NBAE via Getty Images
Even with Ayton on the roster, the Lakers could still open up $45-$52 million in cap space depending on what they do with the rights (and cap holds) with their own free agents (LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Jaxson Hayes, Maxi Kleber).
They’ll still have several roster spots to fill.
And they’ll still have plenty of needs, with the biggest one being the type of center Doncic has long expressed his desire to play alongside in Los Angeles.
There may not be many attainable “A-list center” options on the market this summer, which is Doncic’s biggest desire now it’s known that Reaves will re-sign on a four-year, $185 million deal.
But the Lakers will continue to pursue Jazz restricted free agent Walker Kessler, who turned down a five-year, $140 million contract with Utah.
Kessler, who’s been one of the league’s best rim protectors since entering the league in 2022, fits the archetype of the kind of big man Doncic likes to play alongside.
Officially a restricted free agent, the Lakers have long-coveted Walker Kessler — who would be an ideal fit alongside Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Getty Images
He fits that mold in the ways Ayton, who Doncic recruited last summer to the Lakers, didn’t consistently: rim-running, shot-blocking, high-motor and stays engaged even when the offensive touches aren’t consistent.
It’s clear that Ayton, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NBA draft who’ll turn 28 next month, won’t develop into that kind of center.
Ayton’s talents have been evident since he entered the league, including last season with the Lakers when he averaged 12.5 points on a career-high 67.1% shooting and 8 rebounds in a career-high 72 games.
His value was displayed during the Lakers’ first-round series victory over the Rockets.
Ayton is clearly a starting-level caliber NBA center. He’s just not the starting center the Lakers need.
Which is why they’ll continue to pursue other options when free agency officially opens at 3 p.m. on Tuesday, with Kessler toward the top of the list alongside Pistons restricted free agent Jalen Duren.
Knicks center Mitchell Robinson and Trail Blazers center Robert Williams III are among the unrestricted free agent options for the Lakers, while Mavericks big man Daniel Gafford is among the trade options.
And with Ayton opting into his deal, the Lakers could include him and his $8.1 million salary as part of a trade to upgrade the roster – whether that’s at center or another position of need on the wings/forward positions.
Doncic has made it apparent that he needs a rim-running, defensive-minded center to play alongside him. Getty Images
There could be worse outcomes for the Lakers than having Ayton open the 2026-27 season as their starting center.
But Doncic has made his desires for an upgrade clear.
Which is part of the reason why the Lakers will continue to exhaust their options in making it happen.
They know they must.
Especially during an offseason there’s a considerable amount of pressure for the Lakers, led by president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka, to build a better-fitting roster together around Doncic.
Ayton is good, but not what the Lakers need.
Which is why his decision to opt into his deal won’t stop the team from searching for what they – and Doncic – want.
Welcome to Inside the Suns, your weekly deep-down analysis of the current Phoenix Suns team. Each week, the Fantable — a round table of Bright Siders — gives their takes on the Suns’ latest issues and news.
Fantable Questions of the Week
Q1: What are your thoughts on the Suns drafting Koa Peat and his fit with the Suns?
GuarGuar: I liked the Peat pick and feel like he’s a great value for where we got him and what we had to give up. This team needs athleticism and size, and he certainly brings that. He’s another guy who is a jumpshot away so we will see if this one finally hits for us, but I love the upside with Koa. 100% approve of the pick and am looking forward to seeing him in Summer League.
Ashton: BG and the Suns went to the NBA draft bargain bin clearance sale and ended up with a lottery pick at half price with pick number 30. Good job.
I am actually not sure where some of the angst is coming from, the Suns posters or even national pundits that wildly graded this pick as an A, B, or a C. Full disclosure, I am an Arizona alum, and I watch all the games. Let’s discuss some of the issues.
Koa can’t shoot threes. The entire team (University of Arizona) was not shooting threes! They ranked close to last at the three-point rate among all NCAA teams taken (363 out of 365 teams). Why? Because they were killing teams with players in the paint (Krivas and Awaka) with rebounds and scoring. They left nothing on the dinner table for Koa Peat.
Koa can’t shoot. Oh, he can. So, when the ball was kicked out to him from the aforementioned players’ gobbling up of all the rebounds or the guards hitting tough shots, there were two paths. Take it to the hoop or just straight up or drain the middy. He was not going to the perimeter for a catch and shoot. A lot has been on his shot mechanics, where he tried for a higher point of release at the NBA combine. This was a mistake. He should have explored the shot mechanics after the combine for a better draft position, but then the Suns would have never been able to draft him. This is nothing that a good Suns shooting coach can teach.
Koa can’t defend. Oh common! He is coming off a Tommy Lloyd-coached team, a team that preaches defensive discipline. Koa Peat would not play if he let his man blow by him. Some talk from the cherry-pickers that he lacks lateral quickness.
Prove me wrong. The last time I defended an Arizona pick in DA, my arse was kicked. Koa Peat is different and will be rostered due to his work ethic and coaching ability. A starter? No. And an end-of-the-bench PF that will wow you at times in his rookie season. And an Arizona Son.
OldAz: I don’t watch a ton of college ball outside of the tournament, and I certainly don’t indulge in nearly as much draft prep as others. As a result, my opinions are limited to seeing which talking heads liked their pick and which ones hated it.
I tend to ignore the Twitter (X?) trolls that post a few clips to show that he sucks just as much as the fanboys who post highlights against the college of the blind. For the most part, the voices I trust see a kid with a ton of natural talent, incredible upside, and high basketball IQ that needs to learn to shoot.
Considering his age, I have no reason to question if he can develop a more consistent shot and trust that they will develop him into a positive contributor that will end up a bargain for the late first round.
Rod: Honestly, I just trust Brian Gregory’s judgement on these things…for now anyway. I don’t watch college ball much at all anymore, so I’m limited in my knowledge of the players in the draft, so I have to rely on second-hand info…which has been all over the place on Peat.
I do really like what he said in the presser about him always trying to get to the rim, always attacking the basket. More players with that attitude are something this team has needed to balance out all the three-point attempts. When the threes weren’t falling, this team was usually in trouble last season and I see this as a sign that the FO recognized this and is attempting to fix a flaw in the construction of their roster.
Q2: Suns GM Brian Gregory gave up three 2nd-round picks to move up to 30th and draft Peat. What is your opinion of the price he paid to move up?
GuarGuar: I think that’s a totally fair and reasonable price to move up for Koa. 2nds are not that valuable, and while we are limited in draft assets, it’s not a big deal to me. It’s very hard to hit on 2nd rounders, and the chance of us hitting on a late first is definitely better (albeit still small). Good move overall in my book.
Ashton: This question hurts. I have maintained that those second-round picks could be valuable. 2027 mock drafts have the Suns in an unflattering position on the pick swaps, which simply means that pundits (and gambling sites) think they are on the decline. The Suns owned the 2029 and 2033 second-round picks, which could have been low 30’s. They are gone.
But now I know the price of what it takes to move into the first round. And the price is not that bad. And from Q1, the return was quite good.
It should be mentioned that both Jaden Bradley and Henri Vessar were available with the 2026 47th pick. The Knicks chose Tyler Nickel. I know nothing about this guy, but I could have talked about the other two. So did the Suns overpay?
And while we are talking mocks, Suns would get the least favorable probably get the least favorable from Cleveland in the first round in 2027. Mocked at 21. B.S. – Cleveland is better and the Sun’s first round pick that can be traded is probably more mid-twenties.
Regardless, it was a good trade.
OldAz: First, I don’t look at it as giving up 3 picks because they would have made a much later selection with one of those 3 picks. So they gave up 2 future 2nd round picks and still ended up with 1 player out of this draft. I also like when they move with conviction to get the player that they want and can reasonably acquire.
If Gregory continues to show a better eye for talent and mind for development compared to past Suns front offices, then we won’t care about those extra two 2nd round picks. However, the Suns once got exactly what they wanted and drafted both Marquis Criss and Dragan Bender in the same draft class, and we all know how poorly that worked out. Even if this evaluation of talent is just as bad as those extra seconds are far less costly than the 4th and 8th picks overall.
Rod: I’m good with it because they used them to get what they wanted (Peat). For the most part, 2nd round picks are like the spare change in my pocket. Individually, they aren’t often worth that much but the more you have, the more you can get in exchange for them…and the Suns just cashed in those 2nds for a late first. Was it an overpay? Only time will tell on that one. It all depends on how Peat turns out as an NBA player so it’s way too early to place judgment on it right now.
Q3: Following the draft, Gregory moved quickly to sign two undrafted players, PG Sam Hoiberg (Nebraska, Exhibit-10 non-guaranteed contract) and SG/Wing Corey Camper Jr. (Nevada, Exhibit-10 non-guaranteed contract). What are your thoughts on these signings?
GuarGuar: I doubt either will play a single meaningful minute for the Suns, especially Hoiberg. But you never know what can happen, and if either of these guys breaks out in Summer League we could have an interesting roster conundrum come September. If one of these guys were to break out, I would say Campers based on his skill set and frame.
Ashton: I have no problems with Exhibit-10 contracts. Camper Jr. is not someone I have watched. Nevada was trying to win the Mountain West Conference late in the season (why do I follow college BB?) and were probably screwed by the selection committee, but they made the NIT and quarterfinals (loss to Auburn). The NCAA tourney field will expand next year, but they want more losing power conference teams. I am not sure if that helps the group of 6. I really do not get this invite.
Sam Hoiberg comes from a great pedigree, and it is simply amazing what Nebraska was able to accomplish last season. I never thought I would say that about a Lincoln-based team since the 90’s. So, I am interested in what he can do in the Summer League. If he brings the same fire that he made for a moribund Huskers basketball team in the Big 10, so this could be a good pick-up.
Still, I think the Suns could have done better. So color me unimpressed.
OldAz: We’ll, I have heard of Hoiberg at least. Oh, wait, that’s probably his father/coach whose name I recognize. Well, that probably means he has a high basketball IQ, which is a nice thing, especially for a point guard, and I even think his dad played in the league, so there’s that. That’s about all I can come up with for players I have not watched and are probably just camp bodies anyway at this point.
Rod: I actually like both of these guys…for the Valley Suns. I expect that’s where they’ll both wind up this year, but Hoiberg might have the potential to be a fair backup PG someday, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see his E-10 contract converted into a two-way later on. One thing I like about both is that they’re supposed to be good defensive players, too. This fits into what Gregory seems to want in his players so there might be a place for them other than the G League eventually.
As always, many thanks to our Fantable members for all their extra effort this week!
Quotes of the Week
“Every day, the character piece comes into play. Because what we’re asking guys to do, is do stuff that not everybody is willing to do. We gotta make sure these guys have that character piece, have that work ethic, the tireless competitiveness where they’re never satisfied.” – Brian Gregory
“You can’t predicate your game on scoring. You’ve got to do other things to help your team win.” – Koa Peat
“Ever since a young kid, I’ve always been trying to get to the rim. My parents have always told me not to settle when I get on the court. Trying to get to the rim, draw fouls and get other teams in foul trouble and try to go in there and dunk on people.” – Koa Peat
Suns Trivia/History
On June 28, 1988, the Suns drafted Dan Majerle in the 1st round (14th pick) of the 1988 NBA Draft. Most fans booed the pick as it was made.
On June 28, 2008, the Suns traded Malik Hairston, cash, and a 2009 2nd round draft pick (DeJuan Blair was later selected) to the San Antonio Spurs for Goran Dragic.
During game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals in 2010, Dragic led a Phoenix Suns comeback against the team that originally drafted him, the San Antonio Spurs, scoring 23 of his total 26 points in the fourth quarter. Dragić scored his points on 10/13 FG attempts, including 5/5 three-pointers and a 4-point play, as the Suns overcame an early 18-point deficit to defeat the Spurs 110–96 and take a 3–0 lead in their best-of-seven series in the Western Conference Semifinals.
In 2014, Dragic won the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. He is one of three Suns players to have won the award, with the other two being Kevin Johnson (1989) and Boris Diaw (2006).
On June 30, 1999, the Suns drafted Shawn Marion in the 1st round (9th pick) of the 1999 NBA Draft with the draft pick they acquired from the Dallas Mavericks for Steve Nash the previous year.
In his 9 seasons with the Suns, Marion scored 12,134 points (4th on the Suns’ All-Time leaders list), grabbed 6,616 rebounds (2nd most All-Time), dished out 1,332 assists (17th most All-Time), had 1,245 steals (2nd most All-Time), blocked 894 shots (3rd most All-Time), and made 652 three-pointers (5th most All-Time). In the playoffs, his total of 706 rebounds is the highest in franchise history.
On July 3, 1992, the Suns signed 33-year-old, 11-year NBA veteran Danny Ainge as a free agent. Ainge would play his final 3 seasons in the NBA with the Suns before retiring in 1995. One year later, Ainge would return to Phoenix as the Suns’ head coach for three full seasons and part of a fourth before abruptly resigning after 20 games in 1999 citing a need to spend more time with his family. He was replaced by assistant coach Scott Skiles. The Suns made it to the playoffs each of Ainge’s 3 full seasons as HC but were eliminated in the 1st round all three years.
Important Future Dates
June 30 – Teams can begin negotiations with all free agents July 1 – Official start of the 2026-27 league year and moratorium period July 6 – Moratorium ends, official free agent contract signings can begin July 9-19 – NBA 2K Summer League 2026 in Las Vegas Late September (dates TBD) – NBA Training Camps open
Here is the Summer League schedule for Duke’s NBA rookies for those who need a hoops fix and a break from World Cup play. We formatted it for our purposes, but credit to @BeardedBlueDevl for pulling it together over on X.
Ja Morant was NBA rookie of the year in 2020. Photograph: Joe Murphy/NBAE/Getty Images
When Ja Morant jumps into the air, he levitates past the natural apex of his arc, as if gravity decided to give him an extra half-second of respite. Men a foot taller or with 50 lbs more muscle don’t have as much spring as is packed in his 6ft 2in frame. He can end up almost fully horizontal when he dunks. He is hardly a one-dimensional player though: he sees the game in higher definition than his peers too, zipping passes to teammates a beat before his opponents process the situation. Morant is rarely the best player on the floor at a given moment, but he often seems to be having the most fun. His highlights invite smiles. What could be cooler than a little guy outperforming giants with craft? Imagine if, in the NBA finals, Jalen Brunson had dunked over Victor Wembanyama. Morant knows what that would feel like, because he’s done it.
The Memphis Grizzlies drafted Morant second overall in 2019. They watched him blossom into 2020 Rookie of the Year and a two-time All-Star as the franchise player on a semi-reliable playoff team. In 2022, he scored 47 points in a playoff win against the Golden State Warriors, the eventual champions that year. As a young star with such a particular style, Morant figured to reach even greater heights, on the Grizzlies and as one of the faces of the league.
On Monday, the Grizzlies unloaded him to the Portland Trail Blazers for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray (Grant’s contract is clunky, Murray’s shot is worse). “Flagrantly available,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said of Morant a few days before the trade. “Couldn’t be more available.” A few months prior, Windhorst said Morant had “negative value” in the league, meaning teams demanded draft picks on top of the player himself. The Grizzlies desperately wanted to get rid of the face of their franchise. Nobody wanted him. What went so wrong?
Morant has struggled with arm injuries; this past season he played in just 20 of 82 games thanks to a hurt elbow. (You imagine those tendons straining and popping as he torques to dunk before Earth can reclaim him.) But his fall from grace is also self-inflicted.
Morant cannot get enough of guns. Waving them like flags on not one but two livestreams in 2023 earned him lengthy suspensions. Later, he took to firing imaginary guns after hitting shots – in fairness to him, he was never the best shooter, and perhaps felt the splashes deserved punctuation. But he kept at it after warnings and a $75,000 fine. He experimented with miming a bazooka, then a grenade. Off the court, Morant’s resume of shame is long. While the antics didn’t have a direct correlation with his play, the Grizzlies were clearly frustrated with his off-court behavior. It made for a frustrating blend with Morant’s telegenic basketball style – outside the contained spectacle of a colossal two-handed block or the mother of all contested layups, he far too often made his own problems other people’s inconvenience or harm.
Morant now finds himself in a mid-career purgatory. At 26, he’s too old to be called young, but has failed to show he has the maturity to lead a team. Portland may be an easier environment than Memphis, who had already shed Morant’s co-stars, Jaren Jackson Jr and Desmond Bane.
With foul-drawer extraordinaire Deni Avdija as the centerpiece of the Blazers’ offense, Morant’s passing ability and bursts towards the rim could prove complementary. But Portland were already flush with point guards before the trade, furthering the impression that the exchange happened primarily because the Grizzlies wanted to dump their fading star.
On top of that, the sport is evolving away from players like Morant. The name of the game is shooting and physicality. Morant lacks the former, and despite his explosive talent, isn’t durable or defensively strong enough to keep up with the attrition of the league. His size and passing skills make for a helpful Trae Young comparison. Though Young is a better shooter, much more reliant on drawing fouls, and much less springy, the onetime Atlanta Hawk was once effective but can’t find an easy niche in the league these days. (Wish the Washington Wizards luck as they navigate Young’s hopelessly bloated contract.) In Morant’s case, once age makes him more susceptible to gravity, he won’t have a midrange jumper or three-point shot to compensate for the decline.
It’s all made for one of the more spectacular nosedives in the NBA. Each season sees a few notable players struggling with their stock – see Fox, De’Aaron, and Duren, Jalen – but few have suffered as steady and prolonged a slide as Morant. So call it rock bottom for Morant, at least relative to his time in the league so far. Gravity gets everybody in the end. For Morant’s career, it came sooner than anybody could have expected when his feet left the ground.
CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 23: Landry Shamet #44 of the New York Knicks reacts during the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals on May 23, 2026 at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Make no mistake about it, what Landry Shamet did for the Knicks yesterday was a godsend.
Despite a multitude of contenders and playoff teams potentially interested in the sharpshooter, armed with full mid-level exceptions, Shamet rewarded the team that took a chance on him deep into September in back-to-back seasons, re-upping on a four-year, $24 million pact.
Just in: Free agent guard Landry Shamet intends to sign a new four-year, $24 million deal to return to the New York Knicks, sources tell ESPN. Shamet's agent, George S. Langberg of GSL Sports Group, worked with Knicks executives on Monday to land the long-term commitment. pic.twitter.com/quLuctcv1l
It was hard to fully pin down what Shamet’s value was heading into free agency, but an average annual value of $6 million is certainly on the low end. I believed fair market value for him would be around $8 million, but a bidding war amongst playoff teams could’ve pushed it near $10 million for guy coming off a playoff run for the ages.
Hell, did you see what Kevin Huerter and Julian Champagnie got? The St. John’s product inked a $15 million-a-year deal, while Huerter, who was unplayable for Detroit in the playoffs, signed for three years and $27 million.
Whatever went on behind the scenes to convince him to take this deal aside, this is tremendous news for the Knicks as they continue to work on the margins to build the best possible roster to defend their championship in 2026-27 without triggering the second apron, as per James Dolan’s edict.
But what are the actual financials that the Knicks have entering the official start of free agency at 6 pm tonight? That’s what we’re here for.
As of Tuesday morning, the Knicks are $11.7 million beneath the second apron with 10 players rostered, according to SalarySwish, but that is partially misleading.
For one, the full terms of Shamet and Jose Alvarado’s new contract structures are unknown. We can assume they’re naturally backloaded via Bird rights, but outside of that? They’re estimations.
The second caveat is that we know Mo Diawara has agreed to a multi-year deal worth over $10 million. We don’t know the full details of that, but several have theorized it’s an essential minimum deal across four years with a Year 1 salary of $2.87 million, just $423,000 over the vet min.
So let’s start by assuming all figures are accurate with Diawara’s $2.87 million starting salary. That shaves the space down to a narrow $8.83 million with three or four roster spots to fill. Three mandatory, four maximum.
That, on the surface, is scary. Four vet mins equals $9,828,000. That means the Knicks don’t have enough room even to fill out their roster. Hell, even three of them equal $7.37 million, leaving a small semblance of change remaining with an open roster spot to use in the buyout market.
But here’s the kicker. Remember how the Knicks made a bazillion trades on draft night to back out of the first round and save up to $2 million? This is where that comes into play.
The Knicks selected German guard Jack Kayil at No. 39 overall and Vanderbilt wing Tyler Nickel at No. 47. Neither of them would have much leverage in negotiating their contracts. The Knicks could always stash Kayil after Summer League, considering he was once supposed to enroll at Gonzaga for 2026-27, while Nickel is almost 23 years old after exhausting his collegiate eligibility.
That means that the Knicks can offer the bare minimum: the second-round exception.
The minimum value for the first year of the second-round exception, which can be given to as many players as needed, is $1.36 million.
There’s always a chance one of these guys starts on a two-way, but let’s imagine a world where both sign standard contracts at this sum. That means the Knicks will have 13 players rostered and $6,108,000 in apron space.
From there, they’d have two options:
Use the 14th roster spot on the full Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which has a Year 1 salary of $6,065,000, and leave the 15th open for the buyout market (this would likely require not using every dollar, but hey)
Sign two players to fill out the roster. One to the vet min, while the other can receive a contract as large as two years, $7,484,550. That’s a decent deal.
What if the Knicks only use one second-round exception? Well, replay those two scenarios, but chop off $1.09 million. You can either sign one vet min and another to about 60% of the TPMLE, or three vet mins. It’ll depend on Leon and co.’s preferences. Especially with Ariel Hukporti seemingly out the door, they might pick the latter just to be able to get two more bigs in the building.
Lastly, I know people are wondering about Mitchell Robinson, and unfortunately, there’s no good news here.
There is no logistical way that Robinson will remain in the orange and blue without either a massive trade that completely tears up the cap sheet and generates a lot of apron space or an organizational shift in direction.
The former would entail one of the starters being traded, most likely Josh Hart, which is inconceivable off a championship. The latter would be Dolan being convinced by the powers that be to exceed the second apron.
A theory was surmised on WFAN on Monday that Dolan could agree to go into the second apron in 2026-27 to retain Robinson if pay cuts by Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns allowed him to dip under in 2027-28, but unless Craig Carton is acting as a mouthpiece for Dolan, this is just conjecture, folks.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 10: Rui Hachimura #28 of the Los Angeles Lakers controls the ball against De'aaron Fox #4 of the San Antonio Spurs in the first half at Crypto.com Arena on February 10, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Yesterday the Spurs signed Julian Champagnie to a three-year extension and renewed Harrison Barnes for another year. With those two locked in, the Spurs have ten confirmed players. With the fate of the recent draftees undetermined, there are five available spots going into free agency today.
PTR’s Jeje Gomez posted a great piece explaining what Spurs fans need to know. Pounders, this is your time to get in on the conversation. What do you feel the Spurs biggest needs are going into the window?
And outside of San Antonio, what are you thoughts on the Boston Celtics shopping Jaylen Brown? Brown just came off his best season. Boston offered Brown along with picks for Giannis Antetokounmpo in a failed attempt to acquire the Greek Freak. They now have an insulted superstar on their hands as the widen the search for a trade.
And then there’s Kawhi Leonard. Leonard celebrated his 35th birthday yesterday. True, Leonard is coming off a great season, but he is past his prime and injury-prone. And once again, there are rumblings from his camp that he won’t accept just any trade. Ironically, he seems amenable to Toronto, the team he once walked away from immediately after winning a championship. Apparently, he needs familiarity, and the United States based NBA teams are a deal breaker.
And then there’s Golden State. They seem to be launching a retirement home for NBA legends. Stephen Curry (38), Draymond Green (36), Jimmy Butler (36), Al Horford (40), and Kristaps Porzingis (30) are looking to add LeBron James (41) and Anthony Davis (33). I’ll take “Past Their Prime” for 1,000, Alex. While this could be a collection of some of the greatest players of their generation, their generation’s viability has passed. At this point, the question isn’t where LeBron is going to play but rather is he going to play at all? The Lakers have done their due diligence to make him an offer. Meanwhile, King James hasn’t been this silent since he was MIA in Vegas after the Spurs dismantled The Heatles in 2014.
These pre-free agency trades are trip. Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, LaMelo Ball to Minnesota, and now Ja Morant is heading to Portland. Blockbuster style trades and the first free agent has yet to theoretically commit.
Watch for trades throughout the day, especially with Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard still in the mix. And then starting at 5;00 p.m. CST, players will determine their fate as they give verbal commitment to their next season and beyond.
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ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 28: Devin Carter #22 of the Sacramento Kings drives to the basket during the game against the Atlanta Hawks on March 28, 2026 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Free agency technically kicks off later today, but there are already reports flying around about signings, trades, and option decisions all over social media.
The Hawks have been busy in both making moves pertaining to rostered players as well as acquiring players from other teams. Yesterday, Malik Brown broke down what new addition Aaron Wiggins brings to the team, but I’ll go over all the rest of the moves and give my two cents on the important ones.
Picking up Mouhamed Gueye’s $2.4 million 2026-27 option
‘Mo’ Gueye has had a rapid rise from second rounder to G Leaguer to rotation player for the Hawks. He can be an absolutely devastating defender — in the right situation at least — with a penchant for pinning shots off the glass.
The offensive game is still a work in progress, especially if he never develops into a corner three-point shooter, but it’s smart to hold onto as many elite defenders for use in certain lineups even if that overall leap never happens.
A no-brainer.
Grade: A
Trading two second-round picks for Aaron Wiggins
I’ll be brief since Malik covered Wiggins’ on-court potential the other day. Two seconds is a low cost to pay for a solid bench wing with some on-ball upside and shooting potential who also comes from an elite Thunder defensive scheme.
His contract over the next two years is right around $17 million combined (declining from 2026-27 to 2027-28), and he fits the timeline of the current roster. I say it’s a home run move on the margins.
Grade: A+
Guaranteeing Buddy Hield’s $9.7 million salary for 2026-27
This one is a shocker — at least in a vacuum.
Hield came over with Jonathan Kuminga in the return for sending Kristaps Porzingis to the Golden State Warriors, but it quickly became clear that the Bahamian international wasn’t in the Hawks’ plans. Hield mostly only saw garbage time the second half of last season, though he was lauded for his leadership in the locker room as the Hawks stormed into the playoffs as the 6 seed.
With the Hawks facing a deadline (pushed back to the guarantee date on the calendar already), the team had to decide whether to waive him and eat the $3 million guaranteed portion of his salary or fully guarantee the entire thing, presumably as salary filler.
They chose the latter.
Taken alone, that choice gets a D from me as Hield is realistically no more than a veteran minimum-caliber player as he enters his age 34 season in 2026-27. Maybe he can step in off the bench and space the floor a bit while not hurting you too much on defense, but clearly his best days are behind him, making his almost $10 million salary much too much for his services.
Still, I have a sneaking suspicion that this decision was made with a particular trade scenario in mind.
Grade: Incomplete
Declining Jonathan Kuminga’s $24.3 million 2026-27 team option
Within the fanbase, a decision either way would have had its two camps of supporters versus detractors.
Kuminga had some real highs and some clear lows in his short time in Atlanta, averaging 12.3 points (58% true shooting), 5.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists in 22.1 minutes per game in the regular season after the trade deadline. Similarly, in the first round against the Knicks, his performance was mixed but ultimately needed off the bench.
Jonathan Kuminga is still fairly young (23 years old) with athletic gifts you can’t teach, but even still the $24.3 million price tag is nothing to sneeze at. Presumably, the Hawks could have either declined his option and extended him at a lower annual value so that he doesn’t hit free agency in 2027 or picked up the option as part of a trade.
Instead, they did neither. Still, similar to the Hield decision, we’ll have to wait to see if the Hawks give Kuminga a new deal or merely let him walk to a suitor willing to meet his price.
Grade: B- pending a possible re-signing, C if he walksgiven Porzingis’ new deal with Golden State
Trading for Devin Carter, 2033 second-round pick
While Devin Carter has disappointed as an older lottery pick from just two drafts ago, it’s such a low-risk pickup that this trade almost impossible to criticize. Based on the reporting, it sounds like the Hawks are giving up essentially nothing to pick up the 6-foot-2 point guard.
Carter was 22 when he entered the draft from Providence, and in the two years since he’s struggled with injuries — most notably a torn left labrum the offseason he was drafted leading to just 74 games in two seasons — and shooting woes (career 27% shooter from three). He’s more of a defensive-minded guard to be sure, but he’ll need to make himself more useful than he’s been on offense to have real a role in the NBA.
My read is the Hawks are mainly absorbing his $5.2 million salary for next season (with a team option in 2027-28 that they’ll need to decide on by October) for the low cost of also picking up a 2033 second-round pick which helps offset the two they sent out for Aaron Wiggins. Any upside they get from his play on the court is icing on the cake, but they can cut him out of the rotation if needed after acquiring Wiggins and Kingston Flemings this offseason.
Just what will be Kawhi Leonard's next team? Reports suggest an NBA investigation into sponsor deals has concluded, though that's been disputed.
However, it hasn't stopped Kalshi traders making a Toronto return the 90% clear favorite. Staying with Los Angeles is looking a distant chance at 7%.
Kawhi Leonard’s return to the Toronto Raptors was supposed to be the summer’s cleanest mega-deal.
Instead, it’s turning into a forensic accounting seminar.
Kalshi’s Kawhi Leonard Next Team odds still favor a Raptors reunion, but traders are hedging aggressively as the league's salary-cap investigation expands well beyond its original scope.
Now, this market isn't pricing basketball fit. It’s pricing the speed of Adam Silver’s legal team.
An ongoing NBA investigation into the Clippers has frozen the deal, turning a $1 million-plus prediction market into a hyper-reactive legal chess match where the difference between a paused transaction and a voided contract is everything.
The revelation that the probe now includes a multi-million dollar side deal with the Intuit Dome’s video board manufacturer only pours gas on the fire.
We spoke to Covers NBA Analyst, Jon Metler for his insights into a feel-good homecoming story that is now a myriad of complex legalities.
Key Takeaways
The Paused Frontrunner: Toronto remains the heavy statistical favorite at a 84% implied probability, though contracts have slipped from their recent 99¢ peak as the league probe drags out and uncovers more questionable dealings.
The Hedge Haven: "Stays with Los Angeles Clippers or Retires" caught a modest mid-summer bid, climbing back to 24%, but the price has slumped to 9%.
The Regulatory Standoff: Insiders confirm both front offices remain fully committed to the original player framework, choosing to wait out the league rather than canceling the arrangement.
As documented by the latest Kalshi market update, total liquidity has scaled up to over $1.3 million. The steady accumulation of capital throughout July and early August proves that sophisticated market participants are treating this regulatory delay as a highly volatile, tradeable environment rather than a dead market.
The board’s visual narrative tells a story of immediate shock followed by cautious consolidation.
When the deal was initially leaked, Toronto contracts virtually monopolized the board at 99¢. The introduction of the league's investigative pause cracked that ceiling, allowing the incumbent Clippers to claw back a 24% market share at one stage.
This 24¢ valuation on Los Angeles wasn't retail hype. It represented a calculated financial insurance policy. It was being bought up by traders who understood that an administrative ruling could rewrite a team's roster faster than any free-agent meeting ever could.
Leonard's massive $50 million expiring contract complicates matters further, leaving both front offices highly sensitive to unexpected, league-mandated financial penalties.
Kawhi Leonard Next Team Odds: Value Picks vs. Structural Certainty
In a prediction market frozen by regulatory complexity, traditional scouting reports are useless. The sharpest participants find edge by looking directly at the structural incentives of the organizations involved.
Toronto Raptors | ‘Yes’ 87¢ | 84% Chance
Six weeks ago, trading into 'Yes' for Toronto Raptors at 71¢ was buying a verified frontrunner at a discount.
Then, news broke about another complication, this time an unreported sponsorship deal with the Intuit Arena scoreboard supplier, Daktronics.
ESPN reported this week that the NBA found no evidence that LA Clippers owner Steve Ballmer paid Leonard through team sponsors.
The league investigated multiple deals, including the Intuit Dome one. Though Leonard had a sponsor deal (undisclosed) with the firm, there was no evidence that Ballmer paid the player through that company.
Stays with Los Angeles Clippers or Retires | ‘Yes’ 10¢ | 9% Chance
This is the ultimate corporate shield for your active capital.
As Toronto beat reporters have noted, the true black-swan vulnerability for the Raptors is the exact nature of the league's final ruling.
If the NBA uncovers severe cap violations that legally compel them to void Leonard's current contract, the trade framework collapses instantly. Going back a month, this trade could be made for 26¢, providing massive, high-leverage protection.
Right now, the price has dropped as hopes of a Toronto green light increase.
The bottleneck is a league investigation into allegations that the Clippers circumvented the salary cap by funneling payments to Leonard through a company called Aspiration during his time with the team.
Toronto is logically holding the line. If they execute the trade before the investigation concludes, the Raptors risk inheriting whatever penalties the league office hands down.
In late July, Covers NBA betting analyst Jon Metler pointed out the logistical nightmare this creates for both front offices as they stare down training camp:
Clippers need to pull the first-rounders out of the package and get this trade over the finish line.
Can't have Brandon Ingram back in Toronto while Kawhi Leonard is stranded in LA. pic.twitter.com/YCED7dGPde
Jon followed that up on August 17 as the news of the NBA "investigation" broke:
"Technically the investigation isn’t over but I doubt the NBA wants to punish its wealthiest owner and also complicate a trade of Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors."
The October 21 Settlement Trap
This is where the public narrative collides with the fine print.
Kalshi’s Next Team market is not an open-ended bet on where Leonard eventually plays. It is bound by a strict cutoff.
For the "Toronto Raptors" shares to cash at $1.00, the trade requires "official trade execution as approved by the league office" before October 21, 2026.
If the clock strikes midnight on October 21 and Leonard is still contractually tethered to the Clippers - whether because the deal was formally voided or simply remains in investigative purgatory - the "LA Clippers" side wins. Raptors shares go to zero.
The casual public is pricing Kawhi's desired destination. The sharp money is pricing a legal bottleneck.
Expert Context: The Aspiration Investigation
The administrative machinery of the league office ground this transaction to a halt due to an ongoing investigation into the Clippers' corporate relationships.
Initially, the probe centered on a $28 million endorsement deal involving Leonard and Aspiration, a now-bankrupt environmental company whose co-founder was recently sentenced to 14 years in prison for wire fraud.
Then the scope widened. According to the "Pablo Torre Finds Out" podcast last month, Leonard also had a previously undisclosed, multi-million dollar side deal with Daktronics, the company that manufactured the Intuit Dome’s Halo video screen.
When pressed, a Daktronics crisis management spokesperson declined to clarify, citing the ongoing Wachtell investigation.
History matters here. When Leonard became a free agent in 2019, his camp allegedly asked the Los Angeles Lakers for impermissible benefits, including the use of private aircraft, guaranteed off-court earnings, and an ownership stake. That precedent makes the current sponsor scrutiny highly volatile.
According to developing reports from ESPN Senior NBA Insider Shams Charania: "The Clippers detailed their cooperation with the investigation and said they reached agreement in principle on June 30 but were told the trade could only finalize if the Raptors assume risk of potential penalties. The Raptors responded that the league informed them they’d assume the risk and they will wait until the investigation is complete."
"The ball is in the NBA’s court. The league had 10 months to investigate and urgency is now higher." — Josh Lewenberg, TSN Raptors Beat Reporter
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver further clarified the league's position, pushing back on the idea that the NBA froze the deal:
“The league did not pause the trade. The parties to the trade made a decision not to go forward given that the investigation remained open, and any possible impact on Kawhi or his contract was yet to be known. And so, they chose not to live with that uncertainty, but that was well-known before the trade was proposed. I don’t think there was any reason for people to believe that the status of Kawhi Leonard would change merely because he was traded. The investigation needs to run its course.” - Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner
Despite the noise, Leonard and the Clippers maintain their innocence. “I think we’re going to be in the clear,” Leonard said recently. “It’s not stressing.”
Strategic Considerations for Traders
Track the Outside Firm, Not the Sports Beat: The timeline is dependent on Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. Silver stated the investigation "needs to be wrapped up before next season," making August the critical operational window. If the NBA finds a CBA violation, it can fine the Clippers millions, strip first-round picks, or void Leonard’s contract outright.
Account for the Physical Exam Buffer: Do not assume the market instantly resolves the second the legal probe clears. Once approved, Leonard must still clear a mandatory physical exam in Toronto. Smart traders will maintain a minor hedge position until he officially clears medicals.
The Exit Liquidity Window: If you accumulated Toronto shares back when the board sat at a deep 37¢ discount, the current line offers a highly practical exit window. Selling now eliminates the bureaucratic risk of an extended league investigation tying up your active capital.
Northern Renaissance: The Raptors' Outlook with Kawhi
The moment the league office formally processes the trade call, Toronto's baseline trajectory will experience an immediate upward shift.
The specific transaction framework - sending Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and a lucrative package of future draft assets to Southern California - preserves the core veterans required to build an immediate Eastern Conference contender.
Tactically, Leonard's defensive versatility is the perfect structural match to pair alongside Scottie Barnes. The front office has already begun insulating this exact vision, recently signing veteran guard Kyle Anderson to a one-year deal to ensure the bench unit has the depth to sustain an aggressive regular-season load-management program.
While public chatter expresses natural anxiety over Leonard sitting out a projected 20 games to preserve his health, the sharpest basketball minds recognize that a managed, elite wing rotation is exactly what Toronto needs to transform from a patient development project into a legitimate postseason threat.
How to Trade Kawhi Leonard Next Team Odds on Kalshi
Right now, Toronto sits at 84%, down from a peak of 97% on July 8. The Clippers have climbed to 9%.
Reports suggest the Clippers might prefer to simply welcome Leonard back rather than negotiate a revised, penalty-adjusted package with Toronto to push the deal through.
Metler’s advice for traders caught in the middle is clear:
"If you grabbed the Raptors at a great price and thought you had already won when the trade was announced, you may not be as close to getting paid as you think. Reports suggesting the Clippers are willing to bring Leonard back rather than negotiate a revised deal with Toronto are concerning. Your next move depends on the price you're holding, but I'd be following this story closely and considering taking profits by selling your position while you still have the opportunity." - Jon Metler, Covers.com
The window for a clean resolution is closing. Either the Clippers sweeten the pot to assume the investigative risk, or the trade collapses under its own weight.
In prediction markets, being right eventually doesn't pay. You have to be right on time. And right now, the clock is ticking much faster for Toronto than it is for Los Angeles.
Trading binary transaction contracts on dynamic prediction exchanges allows you to capitalize directly on front-office logistics and media cycles with total portfolio agility.
Account Setup: Complete your user configuration and fund your active trading balance via secure bank wire or transfer to ensure maximum liquidity as insider updates break.
Navigate: Click into the main sports marketplace dashboard, select the "Next NBA Team" directory, and open the active Kawhi Leonard tracking screen.
Execute: Evaluate the fast-moving contract spreads to determine if you want to back the frozen favorite via "Yes" shares at 84¢ or purchase "No" contracts to profit from a potential legal breakdown.
Monitor: Track your open risk exposure continuously through your live portfolio view, giving you the power to close out positions early to protect your yields.
Secondary Markets
The eventual resolution of the Kawhi Leonard sweepstakes will trigger an immediate domino effect across the entire financial landscape of basketball prediction markets.
If Toronto successfully closes the deal, expect a dramatic, immediate downward compression on their Eastern Conference championship futures.
Conversely, the team that misses out on his two-way services will see their regular-season win total contracts experience significant downward drift. Roster reconstruction is a zero-sum game, and the sharpest market participants are already leveraging positions in secondary team futures to capitalize on the trade fallout before the rest of the public can adjust their models.
CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 15: Dean Wade #32 of the Cleveland Cavaliers is introduced before the game against the Detroit Pistons during Round Two Game Six of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on May 15, 2026 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Cleveland Cavaliers have built one of the most expensive teams in the league, and one somehow devoid of depth at the most premium position.
The pursuit of talent over position has led to a team with too many overlapping skill sets at guard and center. That is coming back to bite them as they simultaneously can’t afford to be with or without the only rotation player who can naturally shift between small and power forward.
Dean Wade isn’t the ideal starting small forward for a championship-level team. He’s an exceptional point-of-attack defender who can legitimately guard each position on the court. Every team can use a player like that. It’s the offensive side that holds him back.
Wade is a respectable outside shooter for his size, but he hasn’t registered above the fifth percentile for offensive usage in the past five seasons. The hesitancy to pull the trigger when he has an opening, combined with his inability to provide much else as a passer, ball handler, or inside finisher, contributes to that number being so low. An offense can’t function at its capacity if one of its players is participating so little in the outcome of possessions.
Despite these warts, the market for Wade is robust. Every team is either looking for a star athletic wing or a way to slow down their opponent’s. Wade is the latter. And if you’re able to play him in a more ideal role, you’d probably get better results.
It’s been reported that Wade isn’t going to give the Cavs a hometown discount. His market could be upward to the entire non-tax midlevel exception of $15 million per year.
The Cavaliers can match that. They have Wade’s Bird rights, which means they can go over the salary cap to retain him. The concern comes with what that means for the rest of the cap sheet.
The second apron makes it very difficult to reshape your team. The Cavs found that out the hard way this past season as they were the only team above the second apron. James Harden opting out of his contract has allowed the Cavs to duck below that threshold by $42.1 million. But if they are going to stay below — or even get below the first apron — they’ll need more than just signing Harden to a more team-friendly deal.
Moving Dennis Schröder or Max Strus for smaller contracts or cap relief is a possibility that was already on the table. Trading either or both would become vital if you were to retain Wade near the $15 million per year mark. It’s also worth noting that these changes would be aimed at bringing back a group that fell in four games to the New York Knicks — not one that’s a proven championship contender you want to keep intact.
Despite that, if the Cavs lose Wade, there really isn’t a simple solution for replacing him.
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The Cavs don’t have enough wings to take up Wade’s minutes internally. Strus has proven that he can start at the three with this group, but he can’t do so and also provide backup minutes at power forward. Neither can Jaylon Tyson at 6’6″ if he takes another step forward in his development.
Cleveland’s core four doesn’t have the same exact skill sets, but from a team construction standpoint, they functionally occupy similar archetypes. Donovan Mitchell and Harden are both most effective with the ball in their hands while not providing much resistance as point of attack defenders. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are both at their best as play finishers, not play creators. They’re also more traditional rim protectors that aren’t as useful when they’re forced to guard in space. Both sets require compromises elsewhere. This creates lineups where you have multiple players with the same skills and the same weaknesses.
Redundancy on its own isn’t a problem. Having multiple elite ball handlers and rim protectors is extremely useful over an 82-game season. However, in the playoffs, you need to be able to play in a variety of ways depending on the matchup. This is where the repeated strengths and weaknesses of the core are an issue.
The ideal role players for this kind of team would be players who have well-rounded games. Unfortunately for the Cavs, it’s difficult to find well-rounded role players for a variety of reasons. The main one being that if their games were that well-rounded, they’re usually not actually in the role-player tier.
So instead, the Cavs have opted for specialists to plug holes. There’s lineups and situations that someone like Sam Merrill is extremely useful in. And there’s situations and lineups where it doesn’t quite work. The same isn’t true for Wade.
With the team’s strengths and weaknesses, nearly every grouping benefits from Wade’s point of attack defense, rebounding, switchability, and occasional shooting. This is why the Cavs have consistently played better with Wade on the court.
Lineups with Wade playing last season were three points better than they were when he was off. That drastically increased in the playoffs. The Cavs were 10.6 points better with Wade on the floor compared to without him. That was second only to Harden (+12.7).
It’s easy to see why when you watch these groups play. Wade can guard the opposing team’s best perimeter player. The two bigs can switch any pick-and-rolls without giving up significant mismatches with backline help behind them. And Wade does enough as a shooter and rebounder to round out those lineups. This is just one example of a grouping that Wade can elevate.
On one hand, it’s difficult to justify giving $15 million per year for a player with such a low usage offensively, and who can be a liability in the playoffs when he isn’t taking outside shots. At the same time, there’s no one on the roster, nor anyone that the Cavs could easily acquire, who would better provide the defensive versatility and rebounding that Wade does.
This is one of the many areas where the lack of roster balance hurts the Cavs. Every team under this CBA has weak points and role players that hold groups together. That’s fine. But ideally, those glue guys aren’t the only players at that particular position.
Wade’s importance is a byproduct of valuing skill over position. That philosophy can lead you to stealing Allen in a multi-team trade or picking up an All-Star guard like Darius Garland instead of taking Jarrett Culver because he played a more valuable position. But when taken to its furthest extreme, you end up with a roster that is only glued together by an undrafted free agent that isn’t good enough to elevate the group to the next level, but also too expensive to justify really paying if it handcuffs your ability to make other moves.
The Cavs have a difficult choice to make with the start of free agency later today. Either they pay Wade more than they can easily rationalize doing, considering their cap situation. Or, they lose him for nothing, and will need to spend valuable assets and likely create holes elsewhere in the roster trying to find a replacement.
Neither is a good option. But the Cavs need to choose one, and hope to reinforce the wing position at some point this summer, regardless of which direction they decide to go.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday that James informed the Lakers that “the franchise can move on without him because he will play elsewhere.”
James, 41, spent eight seasons with the Lakers after previous stints with the Cleveland Cavaliers (2003-10, 2014-18) and Miami Heat (2010-14). He led the Lakers to their 17th NBA championship in the 2019-20 season, which ended in the bubble in Orlando due to Covid.
Over his Lakers tenure, James became the league’s top all-time scorer, made eight All-Star appearances and seven All-NBA teams. He averaged 25.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game in the regular season with 63 postseason games played.
James also famously joined his son, Bronny James, on the floor for the last two seasons as the first father-son duo to play together. The Lakers fully guaranteed the younger James’ $2.3 million contract for next season on Monday.
Things have changed in recent years for James, though, since the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic. The younger superstar became the face and future of the franchise, leaving James to play in a secondary role alongside Austin Reaves.
Last season, the Lakers went 53-29 and lost in the second round to the Oklahoma City Thunder. James played just 60 games, causing him to miss out on All-NBA for the first time since his rookie year.
Now a free agent for the fourth time in his career, James’ next move could be his last. He will enter his 24th NBA season as the league’s oldest player.
James’ next team has been speculated as the Golden State Warriors, who reportedly could look to pair in-house stars Steph Curry and Draymond Green with James and his former teammate Anthony Davis. Other teams pursuing James could include his former homes in Cleveland and Miami, though they’ll have less money to spend compared to Golden State.
NBA free agency officially opens at 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT on Tuesday, June 30.
The 22-time NBA All-Star will continue his career next season and has informed the Los Angeles Lakers that the franchise can move on without him because he will play elsewhere, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday, citing James’ Klutch Sports agent Rich Paul.
BREAKING: LeBron James will continue his NBA career for the 2026-27 season and has informed the Los Angeles Lakers that the franchise can move on without him because he will play elsewhere, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul tells ESPN. pic.twitter.com/zzVk6xUVF1
Bad news for the narrative traders. The smoke was just smoke.
For weeks, Kalshi's LeBron James Next Team market was driven by agent-manufactured leverage and sentimental fantasies. Traders threw their capital at a Miami Heat reunion or a hyper-complex Golden State superteam architecture, entirely convinced that loud rumors equaled guaranteed outcomes.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers were sitting right there at a 10¢ discount.
Now, the market has officially resolved. Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul has confirmed that James is signing a two-year, $8 million deal with Philadelphia. The contrarian play hit, the heavy favorites burned, and the balance of power in professional basketball just tilted violently toward Pennsylvania.
Here is a look back at how the board closed, why the smartest play was hiding in plain sight, and what this cycle teaches us about separating front-office reality from Twitter leverage.
LeBron James Next Team Odds: How The Market Resolved
Before the official announcement pulled the market down, the closing prices reflected a massive overreaction to Miami's institutional stability.
Contender
Final Share Price
Implied Probability
Resolution
Miami Heat
49¢
49%
Loss
Cleveland Cavaliers
28¢
28%
Loss
Golden State Warriors
14¢
14%
Loss
Philadelphia 76ers
10¢
10%
Winner
Note: Prices reflect the final trading window before the market suspended for resolution.
The Mechanics of Leverage: Why The Sixers Hit
Prediction markets often price the volume of the noise rather than the quality of the basketball fit...
BREAKING: LeBron James is signing with the Philadelphia 76ers on a two-year, $8 million deal with a player option, Klutch Sports Group and Klutch CEO and Game Over show host Rich Paul tells ESPN. pic.twitter.com/ALOlTkgdAV
The Heat and Warriors dominated the daily news cycle, but the 76ers built an undeniable roster. By trading for Jaylen Brown to pair with Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia front-loaded their rotation with elite two-way talent.
James did not need to force a multi-team sign-and-trade to build a contender; the Sixers already did the heavy lifting. When evaluating free agency odds, you have to apply a "coach's eye" to the roster constraints. At 41 years old, LeBron was never going to join a roster requiring a complete gut-job. He needed plug-and-play championship infrastructure. At 10¢, the market completely underpriced the reality of Philadelphia's depth chart.
Jaylen Brown was just traded there, giving Philadelphia an enviable trio in the backcourt of Brown, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. They also have a premier big in the frontcourt in Joel Embiid (if he can stay healthy).
There were also numerous reported LeBron sightings around Philadelphia on Monday, which even we were skeptical about:
JUST IN: Private jet belonging to LeBron James has just touched down in Philadelphia👀 pic.twitter.com/ea3ylvGh5c
The late-stage movement on this board was a masterclass in separating genuine signals from agent-driven hype.
Golden State Was A Mirage
The Golden State Warriors narrative was an absolute mirage. The market briefly bought into the idea that Golden State could magically execute a cap-crushing trade for Anthony Davis, pushing their share price into genuine contender territory. But building a new superteam under modern NBA collective bargaining guidelines is a financial nightmare. Traders who bought into the Warriors—or a sentimental 28¢ Cleveland return—were buying the storyline, not the logistics.
Miami Was The Trap
Miami at 49¢ was the ultimate trap. It felt inevitable, but past institutional stability does not score points in the fourth quarter. The Heat were priced like a lock simply because they were the loudest room in the house.
What We Learned For Next Time
Success in these player movement markets requires treating the board like a live news ticker, not a static sportsbook.
This cycle proved that you cannot let leverage plays distract you from fundamental roster realities. The smartest money did not chase the Golden State smoke or the Miami nostalgia; it looked for the team with the actual infrastructure to win a title right now.
When an aging icon is chasing one final ring, ignore the media ecosystem. Look at the depth chart. The 76ers had the pieces, the cap space, and the immense value. Next time a market heavily favors the most complicated outcome, buy the simple one.
Strategic considerations for traders
Trade the Cascade, Avoid the Resolution: You do not need to hold your contracts until the ink on an official contract dries. The second a credible insider tweets that the Wizards and Warriors have agreed on the Anthony Davis trade framework, Golden State's contract will instantly clear 85¢—that is your optimal window to sell your "Yes" shares for a massive, clean profit.
Arb the Stale Contracts: Look across alternative trading pools for participants who haven't updated their portfolios in light of the Klutch Sports declaration. Buying up mispriced "No" shares on the Lakers remains a pure execution victory.
Monitor the Hard-Cap Aprons: Building a Big 4 under modern NBA collective bargaining guidelines is a financial nightmare. Watch closely for any leaks suggesting Washington is demanding additional young assets that would trigger an untradeable hard-cap restriction for Golden State.
How to trade LeBron James Next Team Odds on Kalshi
Trading high-volume NBA futures on a designated contract exchange like Kalshi offers a highly responsive, data-backed alternative to traditional, static sportsbooks.
Account Setup: Create your profile and fund your active Kalshi account securely via bank wire or standard transfer to ensure your liquidity is ready ahead of the midnight free-agency window.
Navigate: Click directly into the main sports interface, filter by the "Next NBA Team" tab, and select the dedicated "LeBron James Next Team" market.
Execute: Evaluate the live pricing spreads to determine if you want to back the surging Bay Area superteam narrative via ‘Yes’ shares or protect your position by purchasing ‘No’ contracts against the field.
Monitor: Track your risk exposure continuously through your live portfolio feed, giving you the power to sell out of your positions early to lock in your returns or cut your losses.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JANUARY 21: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics looks on against the Indiana Pacers during the first half at TD Garden on January 21, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by China Wong/Getty Images) | Getty Images
From afar, Robert Parish has taken notice of the Jaylen Brown trade speculation dominating the offseason discourse, and The Chief has taken his stance.
Parish is firmly against the idea of trading Brown, as the four-time champion adamantly expressed during an appearance Monday on SiriusXM NBA Radio. In explaining his position on the matter, Parish called out the Celtics, and specifically team president of basketball operations Brad Stevens, for what he deems a “serious miscalculation” by the organization following their pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
“First of all, you don’t get rid of a talent like Jaylen Brown unless he asked to be moved, not to mention the backcourt with he and (Jayson) Tatum is a proven formula. So why would you wanna make that move?,” Parish said. “I find it disturbing, and it’s uncomfortable, and not to mention I don’t understand — never have, never will — why ownership and management want respect and loyalty from players, but they only give you loyalty and respect when it’s in their best interest.”
Boston, MA – March 18: Former Boston Celtics center Robert Parish watches the action in the second quarter. The Celtics played the Golden State Warriors at TD Garden on March 18, 2026. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Brown was the reported centerpiece, attached to two future first-round picks, offered to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Antetokounmpo before the Miami Heat finalized an agreement last Monday.
The rumors have only picked up steam since then, as Brown remains one of the biggest names on the reported trade block with an uncertain future in Boston.
During his press conference after the first round of last week’s 2026 NBA Draft, Stevens sidestepped all questions regarding the Brown trade topic. Stevens described Brown as “a big part of us,” while also unwilling to dive into the specifics of their offseason discussions after revealing he and Brown have met to speak.
Brown has yet to comment on the trade rumors specifically, but has been outspoken ever since Boston’s early postseason exit against the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round. He’s utilized his FCHWPO Twitch channel and X account to keep his voice heard throughout the offseason, whether it’s challenging ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith or basketball analytics to debunk narratives he considers disingenuous or “clickbait.”
Back in March, Parish returned to TD Garden and briefly met with Brown pregame, ahead of his historic performance against the Golden State Warriors in which Brown surpassed Dave Cowens to crack the franchise’s top-10 scoring list.
Parish praised the entire team amid its underdog run without Jayson Tatum.
Brown, in response, praised Parish right back.
“Obviously Parish is a legend, so it’s good to see him out there,” Brown told reporters, per CLNS Media. “He looked good — looks in great shape — so it’s great to have him around. I haven’t gotten to meet him or talk to him, so hopefully next time he comes back, I’ll make it an emphasis to go say hello.”
Parish’s perspective is one Celtics fans likely share after a decade of watching Brown grow from a second-unit contributor to a champion and MVP candidate who’s given Boston everything it’s needed and more.
Yaxel Lendeborg is not shy about the fact that he’s a big Kyrie Irving fan, and while bringing up the 2016 NBA Finals might offend Warriors fans, it’s a point of pride for the 23-year-old.
“I’m a Kyrie guy, so I go wherever he goes,” Lendeborg told NBC Sports Bay Area’s Bonta Hill and Monte Poole. “I’m a Cavaliers fan at that time. We played [the Warriors] in the Finals like three years in a row. I’m like, ‘Man, I hate these guys, I’m so tired of them.’ “
“That Game 7 when Kyrie hit that shot, I was in New York at our cousin’s house,” Lendeborg recalled to Hill and Poole. “He hit that shot, I ran down the hallway like 10 times screaming, ‘Let’s Go! Go Cavs!’ all this other stuff. It’s so ironic that I’m here now.”
Lendeborg is now teammates with a pair of Warriors who went through that devastating defeat – Draymond Green and Steph Curry – but says he hopes there’s no hard feelings. Lendeborg admitted he used to “hate” Curry in his post-2026 NBA Draft press conference, to which the Warriors superstar replied, “I’m going to work hard to be your new favorite player,” on social media.
“I was a teenager, I was in high school, come on, man,” Lendeborg said. “[Steph] commented on my post on Instagram. I haven’t really said nothing else about it. I just told him we’re all good, tried to leave it at that.”
Now 10 years removed and all in on playing for Golden State, Lendeborg and the rest of the squad will try to bring another title to the Bay Area.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - FEBRUARY 25: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors greets LaMelo Ball #1 of the Charlotte Hornets after the game on February 25, 2025 at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Never say never. Back in March, WSOC-TV asked Steph Curry the question he’s been fielding for years, and instead of the usual diplomatic deflection, Steph grinned and said it outright: you always keep your options open. The question was: will he leave the Warriors to join his hometown Charlotte Hornets? Dell Curry’s number 30 went up into the rafters at Spectrum Center that same week, and Steph had already asked his dad, half-joking but clearly not entirely, whether an exception could be made if it ever came to that. Dell didn’t even blink. Quick yeah, he said. We’d take it down for that, no doubt.
That wasn’t a one-off answer, either. He’s repeated some version of that ever since, always with the same grin, like he knows exactly how much weight the words carry and enjoys carrying them anyway. Since 2022, the Warriors front office has dealt primarily with one question: does this move give Steph another real chance? They traded for Jimmy Butler mid-season because the timeline mattered more than the asset cost. They abandoned the two-timeline philosophy once it became clear that developing tomorrow’s core was costing today’s championship window.
The Hornets just acted like time is their greatest asset. Charlotte had a young, exciting core that played its way to the edge of the playoffs, the kind of team that makes a building loud again, and the front office looked at it and decided the ceiling wasn’t high enough.
Genuinely fascinated by every single piece of this LaMelo trade. Fascinated that Tim Connelly decided this was his move. Fascinated that the Hornets decided to sell high on LaMelo after a great second half of the season.
One of the most interesting trades I can remember.
The Hornets keeping LaMelo for all these years than trading him when they finally seen the light at the end of the tunnel is exactly why bad teams stay bad
Over the span of three days, the Hornets traded away both LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, the two most talented players on a roster that had just spent a full season looking like the most fun, most dangerous version of itself in over a decade. LaMelo and Josh Green went to Minnesota for Naz Reid, an unprotected 2033 first-round pick, three first-round pick swaps, and three second-round picks. Bridges went to Phoenix days later in a separate deal. By the time the dust settled, Charlotte had also added Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale, restocking the roster with exactly the kind of high-IQ, hard-working, three-point-shooting professionals Charlotte has been hunting for.
Buried in that swap is the actual headline. Kon Knueppel just led all rookies in made threes, breaking the rookie record outright with 273 of them, and he did it while deferring to Ball and Brandon Miller most of the season. Charlotte didn’t wait around to see whether handing him the keys later would work out. They moved the timeline up on purpose, while his stock was rising and before Ball’s injury history or trade value had the chance to slide the other way.
Warriors fans know exactly what that feeling is like from the other side of it. Dub Nation spent years watching their own front office wrestle with the same question Charlotte just answered: what do you do with young, talented, occasionally electric pieces who don’t quite fit the timeline you’re trying to win on right now?
Golden State’s version of that question has played out in real time for half a decade, and it hasn’t always ended cleanly. There’s a particular kind of grief in watching a player who made the building louder, who gave you reasons to stay up late checking League Pass, get treated as a trade chip instead of a building block because the front office decided the fun wasn’t the same thing as the path to a banner. Charlotte fans are living that grief right now, watching LaMelo Ball, the most purely entertaining player that organization has had in a decade, get reduced to draft compensation.
Hornets choosing to blow it up after their promising season is smart. They had LaMelo Ball for 6 years. Miles Bridges for 8. During that span, both have been on and off the court. Trading them while their value is peaking does more good for the franchise than keeping them.
The Hornets’ front office looked at a fun, playoff-adjacent roster and decided the version built with picks and cap flexibility gave Charlotte a better chance to become a contender.
The two franchises are solving the exact same problem from opposite directions. Golden State is potentially sacrificing tomorrow for one last run with Steph while Charlotte just sacrificed today for a better tomorrow. That’s probably the right basketball decision, by the way. But if you’ve spent years imagining Steph one day finishing his career where it started for his family, Charlotte just made that ending dramatically harder to picture.
Steph has never closed the door. That’s what has made the fantasy endure for so long. Every few years he smiles, says you always keep your options open, and Hornets fans let themselves dream again.
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