2025 NBA playoff picture: Bracket, standings, projections, scenarios heading into final week of season

There is just one week left in the NBA season and very little is settled.

The top couple of seeds in each conference are set — Oklahoma City and Houston in the West, Cleveland and Boston in the East — and after that things open up quickly. Here's everything you need to know about the NBA Playoffs heading into the final week of the season.

NBA standings

NBA playoff picture

If the season ended today (April 7).

East Play-In matchups

8. Hawks at 7. Magic
10 Heat at 9. Bulls

East first-round matchups

1. Cavaliers vs. 8. Magic/Hawks/Heat/Bulls
2. Celtics vs. 7. Magic/Hawks
3. Knicks vs. 6. Pistons
4. Pacers vs. 5. Bucks

West Play-In matchups

8. Grizzlies vs. 7. Timberwolves
10. Mavericks vs. 9. Kings

West first-round matchups

1. Thunder vs. 8. Grizzlies/Timberwolves/Mavericks/Kings
2. Rockets vs. 7. Grizzlies/Timberwolves
3. Lakers vs. 6. Warriors
4. Nuggets vs. 5. Clippers

Playoff projections

Let's break it down by conference, taking a closer look at each race (the listed games back in each race are from the leader of that grouping, not the top-seeded team).

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Houston Rockets

Oklahoma City has been clear and away the best team in the West during the regular season and has long ago locked up the No. 1 seed. Houston is 13.5 games back of OKC, and had a little slump that made things interesting recently, but the Rockets' magic number to lock up the No. 2 seed is one (one Rockets win or Lakers loss this week). One thing to watch: Other teams don't fear the Rockets in the playoffs the way they fear the Thunder (or even the Warriors/Lakers/Nuggets), so don't be surprised if teams try to jockey into the 3 or 6 seeds to get on Houston's side of the bracket.

3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Denver Nuggets (-1.5)
5. Los Angeles Clippers (-2)
6. Golden State Warriors (-2)
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (-2)
8. Memphis Grizzlies (-2)

The NBA wants drama in the final week of the season, and the West is delivering.

The Lakers are in control of the No. 3 seed: Two wins in their final four games guarantees them the No. 3 seed, and just one win guarantees a top-six finish. After that, the other five teams all have 32 losses — it is one big tie that could go in any direction. A couple of key games to watch this week in this group:

• Lakers at Thunder (Tuesday). The Lakers won the first game of this two-game set on Sunday.
• Rockets at Clippers (Wednesday). The Clippers' elite defense against the young legs of the Rockets will be entertaining.
• Timberwolves at Grizzlies (Thursday). Ja Morant vs. Anthony Edwards will be a show.
• Rockets at Lakers (Friday). Houston will have things locked up as the two seed, but is not going to take it easy against the Lakers.

9. Sacramento Kings
10. Dallas Mavericks (-0.5)
11. Phoenix Suns (-3)

Phoenix enters the week mathematically alive, if it can win its final four games this week it has a chance to catch Dallas (two losses, however, and the Suns are eliminated). In reality, the Suns let go of the rope and have games against the Warriors and Thunder this week. The Suns are toast.

Sacramento has one game lead in the loss column but has a slightly tougher schedule this week with the Nuggets, Clippers and Pistons coming up. The race to host the first round of the Play-In Tournament could come down to the final days.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Boston Celtics

No drama at the top of the East standings, the Cavaliers have locked up the No. 1 seed (technically their magic number for the top seed is one, but that's happening) and Boston is locked in at No. 2.

3. New York Knicks
4. Indiana Pacers

While not mathematically locked in yet, these teams will finish in this order. New York's magic number to clinch the No. 3 seed is one (just one win or Pacers loss). Indiana controls its own destiny to host a first-round series, its magic number for the No. 4 seed is two (with two games against the Cavaliers, one against Orlando and one against Washington this week).

5. Milwaukee Bucks
6. Detroit Pistons (-1)

The Bucks have a one-game cushion over the Pistons, but these two teams play each other in the final two games of the season (Friday and Sunday). That will determine their seeding, and who is headed to New York and who is headed to Indiana to start the playoffs.

7. Orlando Magic
8. Atlanta Hawks (-1)
9. Chicago Bulls (-2)
10. Miami Heat (-3)

The four teams in the East play-in are locked in, but their order is not — these four could finish in almost any order (well, Miami can't get up to No. 7, but aside from that, any order). That said, the smart money is on this group finishing in this order, with the Magic and Hawks in the 7/8 Play-In Tournament Game.

The big game to watch in this group is Tuesday night, when Atlanta travels to Orlando — the winner of that game is in the driver's seat for the No. 7 seed.

Fantasy Basketball End of Season Roundtable: Biggest fantasy surprise

While some fantasy managers are competing in leagues that run through the end of the NBA's regular season, most were done by the end of Sunday's games. Congratulations to those who won their leagues and the money (and bragging rights) that comes with it. Those who did not will reflect on what went wrong and how they can avoid a similar fate next season.

With the fantasy season effectively over, now is a good time for the Rotoworld fantasy basketball staff to have a few roundtable discussions. Monday's question is simple: Who was your biggest surprise in fantasy basketball? Nick Schlain, Noah Rubin, Raphielle Johnson and Zak Hanshew answered this question, and each writer had a different choice.

Who was the biggest surprise in fantasy basketball this season?

Nick Shlain: Dyson Daniels had a preseason ADP of 136 on Yahoo! but is the fifth-ranked player in total game value on Basketball Monster this season. In his first season as a full-time starter, Daniels has seen his numbers increase across the board. No stat has been as crucial to Daniels’ fantasy success than steals, the category where he leads the league with three steals per game. Daniels has vastly outperformed expectations in his first season with the Hawks after coming to Atlanta last offseason in the Dejounte Murray trade.

Noah Rubin: I have long been a pessimist regarding Austin Reaves’s productivity in fantasy basketball. I have had the opinion that he is a really, really good player, but that doesn’t always translate to fantasy production, especially in category leagues. On a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, why would Reaves have the ball in his hands enough to return top-tier value? Trading for Luka Doncic certainly didn’t make me more optimistic, and yet, Reaves has been better while playing alongside a ball-dominant superstar. Over the past two months, he has returned third-round value this season and ranks in the top ten in nine-cat formats. He is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and three-pointers and has solidified himself as an All-Star talent. He shattered his Yahoo! ADP of 87.8 and has been a league-winning producer recently.

Raphielle Johnson: Many people laughed when Norman Powell discussed the loss to Paul George as “addition by subtraction” for the Clippers. PG's exit meant more opportunities for Powell and Ivica Zubac, and both got off to hot starts. However, while Powell's production tailed off due to injury, "Big Zu" has been consistently excellent for the Clippers. Ranked just outside the top-50 in eight-cat formats, Zubac heads into the season's final week safely within that threshold in nine-cat. He's averaging career highs in points, rebounds and assists while shooting 62.4 percent from the field. While expecting Zubac to be a top-100 player was well within reason, he's been even better than that.

Zak Hanshew: Maybe I should have seen a resurgence coming, but hindsight is 20/20, right? After years of finishing as a perennial top-10 fantasy option, Karl-Anthony Towns's value took a big hit over the last two seasons. The fit alongside Rudy Gobert wasn't ideal for Towns from a fantasy standpoint, but his move back to playing a pure center role in New York has done wonders for him. He's averaging a career-high 12.8 rebounds with 24.4 points, 3.1 dimes, two triples and a steal. Towns is shooting a career-best 42.6% mark from beyond the arc, and he's cut his turnovers to his lowest mark in seven seasons. Towns's revival is surprising based on the raw numbers alone, but the fact that he's leading his team in rebounds and sits second in scoring while playing on such a loaded roster is the most shocking aspect of his meteoric 2024-25 rise.

Tatum ‘wanted more' early in NBA career, now credits Celtics' approach

Tatum ‘wanted more' early in NBA career, now credits Celtics' approach originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Jayson Tatum’s talent was evident as a 19-year-old rookie, but it wasn’t until his third season with the Boston Celtics that he was able to fully unleash his superstar potential.

The third overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft averaged 30.5 minutes but only 10.5 field goal attempts per game as a rookie. Those numbers increased to 31.1 minutes and 13.1 field goal attempts in Year 2, then in Year 3, Tatum’s professional career took off.

Tatum earned his first All-Star nod in his third season, averaging 34.3 minutes and 18.6 shot attempts per game. Since then, he has been selected to the All-Star Game each year. The 27-year-old has evolved into the face of the franchise, and now, with an NBA championship under his belt, he’s on track to go down as one of the greatest Celtics to ever step on the TD Garden parquet.

In an exclusive interview with NBC Sports Boston’s Brian Scalabrine, Tatum opened up about his growth from quiet-but-confident rookie to NBA superstar. While admitting that he wanted the ball more early in his career, he acknowledged that former Celtics coach Brad Stevens may have been right to bring him along slowly.

“My career has went as well as I could have ever thought or imagined,” Tatum told Scalabrine. “Yes, when I was younger, I was a 19-year-old rookie, and I felt like I could have been doing more. Brad (Stevens), like, ‘Yo, put me in better positions, give me the ball more.’ Like, as a young player, I had that confidence in myself that I wanted more. And again, I’ve started every game of my career, I’ve played 30 minutes, I’ve been on the floor. And maybe Brad was bringing me along at the right speed, and he knew more than I did.

“So when I was younger, yeah, I wanted more. Where I’m at now, I love how everything has played out and I love where I’m at and I love the things that I’ve accomplished. And we won. We got one. So I’m not content because we want to win some more, but I think it worked out how it was supposed to.”

Tatum took a backseat to superstar Kyrie Irving for the first two years of his C’s tenure. Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris, and a young Al Horford also had important roles, preventing Tatum from fully taking over.

But over the last half-decade, Tatum and Brown have established themselves as arguably the best duo in the NBA. The tandem propelled the Celtics to one of the best seasons in franchise history en route to the 2024 NBA championship, and they’re well on their way to making another run in 2025.

The Celtics, boasting a 58-20 record with four regular-season games remaining, will visit the New York Knicks on Tuesday. Barring a shocking finish to the campaign that would require the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers to lose their remaining four games, Boston will enter the 2025 postseason with the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Watch Scalabrine’s full interview with Tatum below:

Rockets analyst makes wild Draymond Green claim after antics vs. Alperen Şengün

Rockets analyst makes wild Draymond Green claim after antics vs. Alperen Şengün originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

To most NBA analysts and pundits, Warriors forward Draymond Green is one of the league’s best defenders — if not the best — and can shut down any top player.

But after Green got into it with All-Star center Alperen Şengün during the Warriors’ 106-96 loss on Sunday night at Chase Center, former NBA player and current Houston Rockets color analyst Ryan Hollins had some pointed words for the Golden State forward.

“That’s ridiculous,” Hollins said on the Rockets’ Space City Home Network broadcast as Green was assessed a technical foul for shoving Sengun before Houston could inbound the ball (h/t Awful Announcing). “Look at him. The ball’s not in bounds. He’s just trying to get in Şengün’s head. He knows he can’t guard him to save his life.”

Şengün believes Green’s technical foul was the turning point in the game.

“I think that was the moment we won the game because everybody got heated up and we responded well,” Şengün told reporters. “I think they were trying to scare us to play softer. But you just play harder after that and just help my team.”

Green later picked up a Flagrant 1 foul for elbowing Şengün in the face while going up for a layup.

Green is making a strong push for a second-career NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, but Hollins clearly believes second-year Rockets wing Amen Thompson should take home the honor.

To Thompson’s credit, he shut down Steph Curry and held the two-time NBA MVP to three points on 1-of-10 shooting from the field. Curry was 0 of 3 from the field when guarded by Thompson, per NBA.com’s advanced metrics.

But according to those same advanced metrics, Şengün made 3 of 8 shots and scored seven of his 19 total points when defended by Green during Sunday’s game.

So, Hollins’ theory that Green can’t guard Şengün might have played well to Rockets fans watching the game, but the numbers show that the Warriors forward can hold his own.

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Breaking down Mitchell Robinson's Knicks impact since return from injury

As the Knicks gear up for a playoff run, Mitchell Robinson’s role remains one of the things that could push the team’s hopes of advancing far in the right direction. 

Since returning from left ankle surgery in February, Robinson has played in just 15 games. As New York has eased the seven-footer back into the rotation, he’s put up lukewarm numbers (averaging 5.0 points and 5.8 rebounds in 16.1 minutes). The big man has also looked gassed at times as he looks to get back into basketball shape. Robinson quipped last week, “I need to be able to play like seven minutes straight,” when he was asked where he wants to be physically.

There’s been some signs of progress. Filling in for Karl-Anthony Towns as a starter last week, Robinson had season-highs of 14 points and 14 rebounds in a 105-91 win against the Philadelphia 76ers. In the last eight games, Robinson has recorded at least nine rebounds on four different occasions.

Then there’s also the quiet nights. Robinson was scoreless with two rebounds against the Los Angeles Clippers two weeks ago. He had two points and two boards in 13 minutes in Sunday night’s 112-98 win against the Phoenix Suns.

Though he’s been inconsistent, the Knicks need Robinson’s presence on the defensive end. He brings a skill set that no other Knick player can offer. With a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Robinson is a legitimate rim-protector and he’s one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA. In his limited minutes, the Knicks are defending better with him on the floor. The team is giving up 106.5 points per 100 possessions when Robinson is playing and 113.2 points when he’s sitting.

Limited available minutes

When the Knicks first traded for Towns, there were questions of if both centers would see the floor together often. So far, it’s been only an occasional option the club has gone to. Towns and Robinson have only played 41 minutes together according to NBA Stats.

But the results have been promising. Robinson and Towns have worked well together. With both centers on the floor, the Knicks are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions.

If Robinson and Towns don’t play together, Robinson’s minutes will be cut. Towns plays around 35 minutes a night, which leaves very little time for Robinson to see the floor. The big man combo did see some time together against Phoenix. Finding time for Robinson to play will be a challenge for head coach Tom Thibodeau, but it’s a good problem to have. At the moment, New York has more depth on the roster than all season.

Quietly, Robinson has made a significant impact in the playoffs for the Knicks. In 2023, he dominated the offensive glass, pulverizing Cleveland Cavaliers big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in New York’s first round series win. As a backup in 2024, Robinson defended 76ers star Joel Embiid well in limited minutes. Before exiting the postseason early due to injury in 2024, the Knicks outscored opponents by 13.2 points per 100 possessions in Robinson’s 115 minutes.

With just four games left in the regular season, time is running out for Robinson to get into perfect shape. But just having his rim-protecting presence on the floor at certain moments should be a boon to the Knicks' defense in the postseason.

As NBA scrambled to catch up, Celtics put faith in championship core

As NBA scrambled to catch up, Celtics put faith in championship core originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

While many of the Celtics’ primary rivals spent the past year making roster tweaks seemingly designed to counteract what the defending champions do best, Boston’s president of basketball operations Brad Stevens elected to do something even bolder in the modern NBA: He decided to simply run it back with his championship core.

As the Celtics prep for their next postseason adventure, their roster looks almost identical to a season ago. Svi Mykhailiuk, Oshae Brissett, and Jaden Springer have departed; Baylor Scheierman and Torrey Craig are the new faces. In a league that’s constantly changing, the Celtics were content to keep their top nine intact and challenge everyone else to catch up.

What gave Stevens the confidence to lean into this core?

“At the end of the day, you have to assess your team at the end of every year,” said Stevens. “And there are all kinds of factors, right? There are factors — where you are in the aprons, now there are factors, certainly, of where you are in repeater taxes, and all of those things that come into play later on.

“But if you can look at your team and you’re able to bring back a team that is highly successful, with as elite of character, on and off the court as I’ve been around, [the decision to stay intact is a] no brainer.”

Celtics front office staffers have repeatedly marveled at Boston’s blend of not only elite basketball talent, but elite off-the-court character. Chemistry is off the charts and players embrace each other’s successes. The camaraderie of this group has kept everyone sane over the past 200 days, particularly when its loftiest goals can’t be achieved for another two months.

The Celtics will finish the season slightly below last year’s 64-win total. A year after finishing 14 games clear of its closest rival, Boston will almost certainly be the No. 2 seed looking up at the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Celtics’ scoring differential isn’t as glitzy as a season ago when it posted a top-five number all time, and the Oklahoma City Thunder might just bump Boston from that group with a historic mark of their own this season.

Still, Jaylen Brown has repeatedly suggested that these Celtics are better than a year ago when they steamrolled their competition en route to Banner 18. Does Stevens believe this year’s team is better, too?

“I think the way we played at our best is [better] and that’s not a surprise because we’re all back, right?” said Stevens. “We haven’t had a full complement of guys for very many games this year … but I believe in where we can go and I think we can consistently get there fast. I do think the competition is better, all around the league, East and West. And, ultimately, we’re going to have to play really well to do what we did last year.”

Undeniably, it feels like Boston’s bench has improved. Payton Pritchard should be the Sixth Man of the Year after thriving in an elevated role. Luke Kornet, who rushed to re-sign with Boston on what now feels like a criminally low minimum-salary contract, has been one of the most efficient big men in the entire league. Sam Hauser, when not hindered by back woes, continues to be a 3-point shooting menace. Al Horford refuses to look like a player that will turn 39 during the NBA postseason.

Boston’s preferred starting five of Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday has played only 23 games together. More concerning: That group has a minus-0.4 net rating in 343 minutes together — a far cry from the plus-11 net rating that group carried in 623 regular-season minutes together last season.

Stevens and the Celtics seem to believe that group can find its mojo quickly when the lights get bright.

Jaylen BrownPeter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Jaylen Brown has repeatedly suggested that these Celtics are better than a year ago when they steamrolled all their competition en route to Banner 18.

The Celtics are further emboldened by the way they’ve thrived whenever they are shorthanded. Boston has leaned heavy into different play styles, like utilizing multiple double-big lineups that have produced some of the team’s best basketball. The Celtics seemingly have ways to counteract whatever their opposition does best.

The question is whether those rivals did enough to take away Boston’s strengths. Teams scrambled to add wing defenders that could help defend the likes of Tatum and Brown. The Knicks kicked off last summer with the big-swing addition of Mikal Bridges; the Cavaliers added De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline.

Stevens believes this isn’t unusual, and that teams routinely make changes based on the strengths of the NBA’s most successful squads.

“I don’t think this is specific to us. I don’t think we should make that bigger than what it is,” said Stevens. “Every team is always watching the last four teams play in late May and into June, and they’re deciding how they want to build their roster to combat those teams. I mean, that’s every year.

“And so last year was probably no exception than the other years that we’ve had success, other than we were the last one standing. So we’re used to that. We’re used to the standpoint of, everybody in this very competitive league is trying to get better all the time. And you do pay attention to who the last teams are standing to try to improve your own team.

“You’re also doing it from our standpoint with who you think the up-and-coming teams are. Who are some of the younger guys that look like they’re going to mesh and mold into those championship teams? As you think, not only the next couple of years, but down the line.”

But it’s telling that the Celtics didn’t need to make any tweaks of their own. The Celtics were downright dominant in their postseason run and they weren’t going to mess with a successful formula.

The Celtics are banking that another year of chemistry and cohesion will again differentiate this team on a big stage. The rest of the league may be better, but Boston feels like it is, too.

Four teams still in mix to play Celtics in first round of playoffs

Four teams still in mix to play Celtics in first round of playoffs originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Boston Celtics are just about locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for quite a while.

The same can’t be said for which opponent the Celtics will face in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The race for the No. 7 seed is still very much up in the air.

There are four teams — the Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat — still in the mix, although the Magic and Hawks remain the favorites.

The Celtics’ first-round opponent will be the winner of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game in the play-in tournament, which is scheduled for Tuesday, April 15. This means the Celtics will have about four or five days to prepare for their first-round series, which is expected to begin either Saturday, April 19 or Sunday, April 20.

Here’s an updated look at the standings and No. 7 seed probabilities as of Monday morning (probabilities via Basketball Reference:

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The Magic and Hawks play each other twice more — Tuesday in Orlando and Sunday in Atlanta. Those two games could end up deciding which team hosts the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in tournament game.

The Magic also have to play the Celtics on Wednesday and the Indiana Pacers on Friday, while the Hawks also play the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday and Philadelphia 76ers on Friday.

The Bulls are only one game behind the Hawks for the No. 8 seed. They’ve won three games in a row and seven of their last 10. The Bulls have four games left — Tuesday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Wednesday against the Heat, Friday against the Wizards and Sunday against the Sixers.

It looked like the Heat had dropped out of the No. 7 seed race in mid-March after losing 10 straight games. But a five-game win streak at the end of the month propelled Miami back into the mix. The Heat are still long shots to get into the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game, but it’s not an impossible task.

Miami has four games remaining — Monday against the Sixers, Wednesday against the Bulls, Friday against the Pelicans and Sunday against the Wizards.

The ideal first-round opponent for the Celtics likely would be the Magic. Orlando is a strong defensive team, but its offense ranks among the worst in the league. The Magic are also dealing with injuries and don’t have a ton of playoff experience.

Overall, the Celtics shouldn’t have too much trouble with any potential Round 1 opponent. The real challenge doesn’t start until the conference semifinals.