Sixteen teams remain in the pursuit of a 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament title, with only two "Cinderella" teams reaching the second weekend.
No. 11 Texas and No. 9 Iowa are the only teams seeded higher than sixth to reach the Sweet 16, with the Longhorns already having three NCAA Tournament wins after beating North Carolina State in the First Four. Iowa, meanwhile, upset defending national champion and 1-seed Florida in the second round to set up a matchup against Big Ten foe Nebraska.
While it was a quite chalky first weekend, Microsoft Copilot's AI predictions were quite impressive. It picked No. 12 High Point to upset Wisconsin — which it did — and also picked a Final Four of Houston, Duke, Arizona and Michigan, all of which are still alive.
The chatbot also correctly picked 12 of 16 Sweet 16 teams correctly, missing only on 1-seed Florida, 3-seeds Gonzaga and Virginia and 4-seed Kansas, which lost on a buzzer-beater.
Can it predict the Sweet 16 with a similar level of success? Here's a look at how AI predicts each regional semifinal game to go in 2026:
Sweet 16 predictions: AI simulation for March Madness
Microsoft Copilot predicted only one upset in the Sweet 16. Here's how it predicted each game to go, and what it said about each game:
East Region
- No. 1 Duke 79, No. 5 St. John's 70
"St. John’s is dangerous — Dylan Darling’s buzzer‑beater to beat Kansas shows they can hang with elite teams — but Duke’s depth and defensive efficiency give them the edge," Copilot says.
- No. 2 UConn 74, No. 3 Michigan State 68
"Michigan State is playing well (77-69 win over Louisville), but UConn’s ceiling is higher and their defense is more consistent," Copilot wrote.
South Region
- No. 4 Nebraska 76, No. 9 Iowa 72
"Nebraska has been involved in high‑level, tight games (e.g., the Nebraska‑Vanderbilt thriller), and their steadier defense gives them the edge," Copilot predicted.
- No. 2 Houston 80, No. 3 Illinois 73
"Illinois is strong, but Houston’s athleticism and physicality are overwhelming when they’re locked in," Copilot said.
West Region
- No. 1 Arizona 82, No. 4 Arkansas 74
"Arkansas is talented but inconsistent; Arizona’s pace and shot creation should control the matchup," Copilot said.
- No. 2 Purdue 78, No. 11 Texas 70
"Purdue, however, is one of the most complete teams remaining, with superior interior scoring and efficiency. Texas can keep it close, but Purdue’s size advantage is decisive," Copilot said.
Copilot also added: "Texas is a double‑digit seed but not a Cinderella." Take that, Longhorns fans.
Midwest Region
- No. 1 Michigan 84, No. 4 Alabama 77
Copilot predicts: "Alabama can score, but Michigan’s balance and momentum make them the safer pick."
- No. 6 Tennessee 71, No. 2 Iowa State 67
"Iowa State is tough defensively, but Tennessee’s physicality and late‑game execution give them a slight edge in a grinder," Copilot says.
Touché, artificial intelligence.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Sweet 16 predictions: AI predicts a March Madness upset