6 key questions left for Sixers, from seeding to starters originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
As of Friday morning, heading into a back-to-back vs. the Timberwolves and Pistons, the Sixers have six regular-season games to go and sit sixth in the Eastern Conference standings.
Let’s look at six key questions for the team with postseason looming:
Can Sixers avoid the play-in?
The odds of the Sixers staying in the top-six and steering clear of the play-in tournament feel like a coin flip.
They trail the fifth-seeded Hawks by 1.5 games and also lost the regular-season series to Atlanta, so rising would be unlikely. That’s especially true because the Sixers have the NBA’s fourth-hardest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon.
The Raptors and Sixers both currently sit at 42-34. The teams split their regular-season series, but the Sixers hold the tiebreaker over Toronto because of their superior record against other teams in the Atlantic division. The Sixers are 9-7, the Raptors 4-10.
The other teams in play-in spots are the Hornets, Magic and Heat. The Sixers lead Charlotte by 1.5 games, Orlando by two games and Miami by 2.5 games.
Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report says the Sixers have a 41.9 percent of finishing in the top-six.
Who’s going to start in the postseason?
Kelly Oubre Jr. has come off the bench in the three games he’s played since returning from a left elbow sprain. Does Sixers head coach Nick Nurse anticipate eventually sliding Oubre back into his starting five?
“I don’t know about that,” Nurse said Wednesday night before the Sixers’ road win over the Wizards. “I envision probably having some changes here and there going down the stretch. He’s probably going to be involved in that, but he might not be the only one.”
After opening the season on a two-way contract, Dominick Barlow has wound up starting 58 games so far. Nurse has had plenty of valid reasons to like him as a starter.
“He’s played really well,” Nurse said. “Not always, but a lot of times he’s been a factor on the offensive glass. He’s always a factor on the defensive end. He’s continued to grow in his switch-ability. We can play some different coverages with him; he can switch out on to most guys and do a lot of good work there for us.
“And then obviously, most of the time it was just a numbers game. There were always one, two, three, four guys out and he ends up kind of being there, and he earned it as well.
“Now that everybody’s back, I thought Kelly probably needed a game or two rhythm-wise. And then again, (Barlow) reminded of us how good he is paired along Joel (Embiid). So there’s lots of stuff going on there to look at and evaluate.”
Barlow’s teammates are very aware that his impact often doesn’t come through shotmaking.
“He knows his role, man,” Tyrese Maxey said. “He’s a star in his role. … He does all the dirty work for us. He guards who he needs to guard, he rebounds — offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds. He’s a connector and he does a really good job of just being who he is. We need him.”
Can Sixers sustain contender-caliber defense?
The Sixers rank 18th in the NBA in defensive rating.
Both on paper and on the floor, they’ve appeared capable of better. One suggestion of a higher defensive ceiling: The Sixers’ defensive rating in fourth quarters is third in the NBA behind only the Knicks and Thunder. Their stellar defensive rating of 98.0 in clutch situations is the best in the league.
Glimpses of greatness won’t be good enough in the playoffs, though.
“Especially when you’re talking about competing for a championship, we’ve got to be a better defensive team,” Paul George said.
George’s play post-suspension is a reason for optimism on the defensive end. His scoring’s attracted the most attention — 28.0 points per game over his last four, including a 39-point performance against the Wizards — but the 35-year-old forward has looked excellent physically on both sides of the ball.
“The games were coming fast and my body just wasn’t responding quickly enough,” George said Wednesday. “So I knew. It was a hard decision: Do I keep playing? I knew my body just needed a little time to heal without so much pounding and wear and tear.
“I knew that the 25-game suspension, I was going to use it wisely, stay in shape, stay sharp, stay working. … I knew that this was kind of a blessing in disguise with the time off that I needed to get ready.”
How costly could rebounding woes be?
The Sixers’ third-quarter troubles have been well-documented. They still have the NBA’s worst net rating in third quarters this season at minus-13.1.
Defensive rebounding has been a problem across all quarters for three years in a row. The Sixers are on track for another bottom-five season in defensive rebounding rate, per Cleaning the Glass. Last time the team was in the playoffs, the Sixers were decisively worse than the Knicks on the boards during their first-round series loss.
In Nurse’s eyes, some of the rebounding struggles are fixable.
“The first thing is our defensive rebounding needs to be better more consistently,” he said. “Again, it seems to get pretty good the last 18 minutes of the game, but it’s not very good in stretches. A lot of those come from a high volume of threes. I don’t think we’ve been great at running down long, loose-ball types of rebounds and that definitely needs an improvement. I think we’ve got the speed and athleticism to run those down. A lot of those long shot, long rebounds I think are the majority of them.
“And then I would like to improve our side of it. We’d like to be a good crash team. We have been at times this year, but it’s not been as good recently as it was (earlier) in the year, so we’d like to get that back, up that a little bit and get our own share of put-backs and kick-out threes off of offensive rebounds.”
Will Maxey’s progress as floor general make a big difference?
By the numbers alone, Maxey’s only taken a modest step forward this season as a passer. His 0.95 assist-to-usage ratio would be a new career high, according to Cleaning the Glass. He had a 0.88 assist-to-usage ratio last year.
The stats might undersell Maxey’s progress running the team a tad. He’s stumbled here and there in clutch moments — every star guard does — but Maxey’s certainly appeared more comfortable dictating the Sixers’ offense. Nurse almost never minds when he veers from a scripted play or invents something on his own.
Much of that confidence stems from Maxey refusing to let himself fade from games. Even when Embiid is dominating or George is on fire, the Sixers need Maxey eager to attack. Compared to past postseasons, Maxey will have a greater sense for all the nuances of being a lead guard.
“I think we’ve got him to an aggressive state of mind,” Nurse said. “I think he’s got that where it needs to be. … I just see him where he’s tweaking plays a little bit that maybe we were calling for him and he puts someone else in there. Again, just to get VJ (Edgecombe) going, to get Kelly a bucket, to get Paul one. I think that’s growth for him for sure.”
Joel Embiid
No formal question here because the truth remains that asking whether Embiid will play on a given night sometimes leads down strange paths. The Sixers’ Friday morning injury report listed Embiid as doubtful against Minnesota because of the illness that caused him to miss Wednesday’s win.
It is clear that Embiid always wants to play and has generally looked like an All-Star again this season when available.
He’s dealt with an absurd amount of health misfortune in past postseasons. Stringing together some strong games before the playoffs would be nice for Embiid, but the Sixers will be happy with any route that involves him being (and staying) healthy in the postseason. The team is obviously much better when Embiid takes most of the center minutes as opposed to the alternative world of Adem Bona, Andre Drummond and small-ball options.
