Tuesday, the Cavaliers acquired James Harden from the Clippers in exchange for Darius Garland and a second-round draft pick in 2026 – a move that immediately catapulted them to being priced as co-favorites alongside the Knicks at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Eastern Conference.
The trade hasn’t been met with universal acclaim for Cleveland, however. Some pundits have argued that trading away a two-time NBA All-Star entering his prime for a 36-year-old on the verge of a new contract is short-sighted. Others have questioned the fit of Harden alongside Donovan Mitchell in the team’s backcourt.
Using FTN’s new NBA StatsHub, let’s take a closer look at what Harden will bring to his new team, and why the Cavaliers were comfortable trading away Garland as they set their sights on a deep playoff run in a wide open Eastern Conference.
James Harden Is Still a High-Impact Player
James Harden is certainly past his prime, but this version of him was still good enough to earn a down-ballot MVP vote and Third-Team All-NBA honors last season while playing 79 games for the Clippers.
Looking at NBA StatsHub, we can see that Harden is one of only five players this year averaging at least 20 points and 8 assists per game — a benchmark he’s reached in five of the past six seasons. Only Harden, Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić and Trae Young have more than two such seasons during that span.
Harden has often been critiqued as a ball-dominant, isolation artist whose net offensive contributions to a team are up for debate, but he has a positive Field Goal Over Expectation this year, indicating he’s converting difficult shots at a strong rate. He’s also been one of the league’s most efficient passers, consistently creating high-quality shot attempts rather than simply accumulating assist volume.
Harden ranks 16th overall in our NBA Model Player Ratings, even including a rough start to the campaign. Put simply, he remains one of the game’s premier players.
He’s been a core reason that the Clippers have been able to revive their playoff hopes, following a dreadful 6-21 start. Since Dec. 20, the Clippers are an NBA-best 17-5, ranking fifth in Net Rating (+7.8).
The Clippers’ 121.2 offensive rating during that stretch would lead the entire NBA if extrapolated to the entire season. Clearly, Harden is still capable of contributing to high-level offense and making his teammates better.
Perhaps most importantly, Cleveland is getting durability in this trade. Since joining the Clippers, Harden has missed only seven games due to injury across three seasons, per The Athletic. This part of the trade matters tremendously, given Garland’s recent injury history. He’s played in only 26 of Cleveland’s 51 games this season and was available for only five of the team’s nine playoff games this past spring due to injury.
At 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Harden will also bring more size to the team’s backcourt. Size and strength undoubtedly contribute to a player being able to stay healthy – it’s also important defensively, which is one reason why teams with diminutive backcourts very rarely advance deep into the postseason.
Harden represents a meaningful upgrade in these areas over Garland and immediately puts the Cavaliers back in the championship conversation.
Why the Cavs were comfortable trading Garland
On this date last season, the Cavaliers were 40-10, with the best Net Rating in the Eastern Conference. They earned the No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs, but they were prematurely bounced in the second round of the postseason, losing in five games to the Pacers.
This year, Cleveland broke training camp with championship-or-bust expectations, but they have already lost more games (21) than they did during last year’s entire regular season when they finished 64-18. They are only 13-15 against teams with a winning record and rank 4th in the Eastern Conference in Net Rating.
Part of their struggles can be attributed to a lack of lineup consistency – Garland’s absences being the most notable. He missed the beginning of the season due to complications from a toe injury, then suffered another injury to the toe in mid-January.
When Garland has been available, his performance has fallen short of expectations on both ends of the floor. He’s shooting only 36.0% from 3-point territory and averaging only 18.0 points per game – both of which are his worst numbers since his sophomore campaign.
It’s also worth noting that Garland has shot only 42.8% from the field in 22 career postseason games. Cleveland is 9-13 in those contests, and only 2-6 if we exclude the opening round. The Cavaliers aren’t sacrificing any meaningful playoff pedigree with this deal.
This season, Cleveland’s offensive efficiency has been 1.9 points better with Garland off of the floor. Garland has continued to struggle defensively as well, ranking worst on the team in defensive rating, per our FTN NBA Model Player Ratings.
The Cavaliers’ 117.7 defensive rating with Garland on the court this year would rank 25th in the NBA, only ahead of the Nets, Pelicans, Kings, Wizards and Jazz.
The Cavaliers’ 110.7 defensive rating with Garland off of the court this year would rank 3rd in the NBA, only behind the defending champion Thunder and current No. 1 seed Pistons. This gap perfectly illustrates the challenge of playing high-level defense with two smaller guards on the floor at the same time.
The Takeaway
Using FTN’s NBA StatsHub, it’s clear that James Harden is still playing at an extremely high level. He brings a rare blend of scoring and facilitating ability to a Cleveland roster that has capable shooters and two athletic bigs well-suited to finish plays around him. His size also gives the Cavaliers more defensive flexibility alongside Donovan Mitchell in the team’s backcourt.
Harden’s age and postseason resume will certainly invite scrutiny, but Cleveland is ultimately betting on availability, size, and increased playmaking ability with this trade.
During this year’s regular season, Cleveland is 13-13 with Garland in the lineup, compared to a 17-8 record without him. His uncertain health outlook, coupled with his underwhelming play in 26 games make trading him to the Clippers a calculated risk worth taking for a Cavaliers team that has championship ambitions this summer.