The Spurs have won 15 of their last 16 and are only two games behind the Thunder on the loss column. Can they take the top seed in the West? And should they go for it even if it means playing their starters more?
Mark Barrington: I don’t think they ‘go for it’ in the sense that they change their strategy for the final stretch of games going into the playoffs. They’re comfortably in the top four and will have at least one home playoff series. They’re going to concentrate on continuing to improve and staying healthy. It’s entirely possible that that could result in a first-place finish in the west, but that’s not the primary goal.
Bill Huan: I can’t see that happening. The discourse about the Spurs potentially securing the top seed over a dominant regular-season team is reminiscent of the 2016-17 season, when they were within a game or two of the Warriors before Golden State pulled away. Oklahoma City has held its best punch for months now, prioritizing health. They’re still ahead, and I fully expect them to start rounding into playoff form and dominate games again before the postseason.
As for the minutes, the only player I’ll be monitoring for that is Wemby. He needs to be able to handle a load in the low-mid thirties for the Spurs to maximize their potential this season, and everyone else on the team seems to be in a good spot already.
Devon Birdsong: I think if there’s anything we’ve learned over the last several seasons, it’s that the Spurs have their timelines and guardrails in place, and they’re not going to deviate from them unless they see a clear (risk-limited) advantage in doing so. Unless they’re within a game of the Thunder in the final weeks of the stretch run, I just don’t see them making a special effort to do so from a front-office/coaching perspective. However, you can never count out what the players and their on-court performances might lead to. They clearly have their own desires and goals, and the way they’re pursuing them has already put them in a place that has (on some level) surpassed even the most optimistic of the front office’s projections. I think the most likely scenario is that they’ll start resting players once/if their position as a 2nd seed is solidified down the home stretch. However, if this hot streak keeps up, I would not be shocked to find them fighting for the #1 seed, which really says everything about this team.
Jeje Gomez: If the top seed is attainable in the last few games, they should probably go for it. The play-in games mean more rest before the start of the playoffs, so a few extra minutes shouldn’t matter that much. Some of the last few games could be tough, but they are at home. The top seed would guarantee that they wouldn’t have to face the Thunder until the conference finals and would pit them against the lesser of the play-in teams, but, more importantly, taking those last few games as must-wins could prepare them for the postseason. It would make no sense to risk injury, but tightening up an already shrinking rotation even more could put them in a playoff mindset, which could help such a young team.
The Spurs have lost to the Knicks twice this season. Bad luck, or is there anything about them that makes them a bad matchup for San Antonio?
Barrington: The Knicks are a veteran team with an incredible on-court leader in Jalen Brunson. Brunson can impose his will, and his team has the size and shooting to cause the Spurs problems, with KAT limiting the strategy of having Wemby lay off of his man and protect the rim. I think the Spurs are learning on the fly to gain the mental resilience to take on the veteran leadership of Brunson, but they still don’t have a big forward to counter Towns, who is too quick for a French Vanilla lineup to work. If the Spurs meet them in the playoffs, it will be a tough matchup, but I’d take it, because that would mean that the Spurs were in the NBA finals, about 2-3 years before I would have predicted that in my most optimistic scenarios.
Huan: Two games are too small a sample size to come to definitive conclusions, but it does appear like OG’s defense on Wemby is the x-factor. In a 7-game series where the Spurs can come up with a better gameplan, I think things would be a lot closer, and it would obviously mean that they made it to the finals. I’m not worried about the matchup in the slightest, and if I need to be in the future, it would mean that this Spurs team is four games away from a championship.
Birdsong: There’s certainly some bad luck involved, but it really comes down to three factors. 1. The Spurs are still inconsistent defending the three, and the Knicks have a roster that can really pour them on. 2. Jalen Brunson is one of the few guards who has enough savvy and grit to successfully fight through and counter Stephon Castle’s defense. 3. And most importantly, Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the few big men whose long-distance shooting can warp San Antonio’s preferred defensive schemes. That shooting forces the Spurs to either let Wemby pursue him to the perimeter, opening up the post for exploitation, or stay home and allow Towns to benefit from the Spurs’ weak spot at power forward. Towns has shot 40% from three in 3 of their last 4 games against each other, and there’s no other player on the roster big enough and fast enough to trouble Towns, which has been making him (and the Knicks) a matchup nightmare for San Antonio.
Gomez: It’s a bad matchup. Teams with stretch bigs and big wings tend to give the Spurs trouble because they expose the lack of length at the forward spots and force Wemby to either step outside or roam, which surprisingly confuses him at times, as he seems at his best when he’s directly involved in plays. But what makes the Knicks a worse matchup than most is their offensive rebounding. Towns is not only an elite shooter, but he has been crashing the glass well, and Mitchell Robinson is arguably the best offensive rebounder in the world. Worrying about New York doesn’t make much sense since they won’t be a playoff rival unless the two teams make the finals, but they do offer others a blueprint on how to beat San Antonio.
Assuming the Spurs stay in one of the top two spots, which potential play-in team would you like them to face in the first round?
Barrington: I think I’d be happy with a Suns matchup. The Spurs have lost two games to them, but I think that could work in the Silver and Black’s favor, as they’ll be motivated to play with maximum effort from the start. Also, the Suns seem to be having a bit of internal dissension, and that might make them a little easier to beat.
The other likely matchup for the Spurs would be the Warriors, and I think they might be a tougher out, especially if Steph Curry is healthy. Really, the dream scenario for the Spurs in the first round is a sweep with everyone healthy, and a good rest before the second round starts, and that would be extremely unlikely against a healthy Golden State squad.
If I were just looking for a fun series, I’d ask for the Trail Blazers, who are punching above their weight in the Western Conference Standings. But I don’t see them winning two play-in games against any of the possible opponents. The Clippers are probably the best team in the play-in range of any of the current four, but by the end of the season, I expect that they’ll be either in the top 6 or out of the play-in tournament completely, depending on Kawhi’s health. There’s no middle ground for them.
Huan: Out of all the options, I’d feel the best facing Portland. Deni is their lone reliable creator, and he’s having back issues. Frankly, I don’t want to see a red-hot Clippers team or a potential Warriors squad getting back a refreshed Steph. Phoenix would be a tough out too, given how much trouble they’ve created for Wemby this year, and the West is suddenly looking much deeper than it did earlier in the season.
Birdsong: I really would prefer for them to avoid the Warriors and the Clippers, so that really only leaves Portland and Phoenix, and out of those two, I think Portland would be the better option. The Spurs would probably need to land the #1 seed for that to happen, though. By default, I think it’s going to be Phoenix. And honestly, that might be a good first-round matchup for the Spurs, because that’s not a team they can succeed against if they get sloppy. Also, I love the opportunity the Spurs would have to make Phoenix fans miserable. Sorry, can’t teach this old dog new tricks (or get him to let old rivalries go).
Gomez: The obvious answer is Portland. They just don’t have enough shot creation to win a playoff series unless everything breaks right for them, but that’s also the reason why they are unlikely to come out of the play-in. Out of the other three teams, the Warriors give the Spurs trouble because they can play five-out and lure opponents into shooting contests, and the Clippers have a stretch big and the type of perimeter length that the Knicks also have. So the preferred option would be Phoenix, which has Spurs-killer Jalen Green, but also traditional bigs for Wemby to guard.
