March Madness bracketology live: Latest NCAA Tournament bracket updates

Selection Sunday is the closing of one book and the opening of another on the college basketball season. For some teams, their hopes of making it in as an at-large potential Cinderella to March Madness are extinguished, while for others, hope springs eternal as they look to become the latest dancing darlings.

Some things are all but set in stone. Michigan, Arizona, and Duke are universally projected to be No. 1 seeds, leaving questions as to which team will join them on the No. 1 seed line: Florida or UConn, two teams that lost their respective conference tournament games on Saturday, March 14.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic 10 will be a two-bid conference after Dayton upset Josh Schertz, Robbie Avila and Saint Louis in the conference semifinals. Others teams' fates remain up in the air, like Miami (Ohio) — who will be on the bubble after losing its MAC tournament opener following an undefeated regular season — and Auburn, which has great wins to pair against a 16-loss season.

The shape of the bracket will continue to ebb and flow throughout March 15, as conference tournaments come to a close and we figure out the last of the automatic qualifiers.

USA TODAY is following the latest prospective bracket updates live. Follow along below as the selection show creeps ever closer.

Last updated 9:50 a.m., Sunday, March 15.

NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Last four in

NCAA Tournament Bracketology: First four out

NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed predictions

  • Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida

Bracketology: NCAA Tournament live field projection

March Madness bracketology live updates

Penn playing Yale close for Ivy League bid

Fran McCaffrey and Penn are looking to steal an auto-bid out from under the feet of 24-win Yale, as the Quakers are within three with under 10 minutes to play in the second half. The Ivy League is a one-bid league, so both of these teams are playing for their tournament lives.

March Madness bracket: Updated seeds

Teams in bold have clinched tournament berth.

  1. Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida
  2. UConn, Illinois, Iowa State, Houston
  3. Michigan State, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Purdue
  4. St. John's, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Virginia
  5. Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Alabama, Kansas
  6. Tennessee, North Carolina, Louisville, BYU
  7. Miami (Fla.), Saint Mary's, Utah State, Kentucky
  8. Iowa, Clemson, UCLA, TCU
  9. Georgia, Villanova, Saint Louis, Ohio State
  10. NC State, UCF, Santa Clara, VCU
  11. South Florida, Texas A&M, SMU/Missouri, Texas/Miami (Ohio)
  12. Northern Iowa, Yale, Akron, McNeese
  13. Hawaii, Hofstra, High Point, Cal Baptist
  14. North Dakota State, Troy, Wright State, Idaho
  15. Kennesaw State, UMBC, Tennessee State, Queens
  16. Siena, Furman, Long Island/Prairie View A&M, Howard/Lehigh

March Madness last four in

Texas, Missouri, SMU, Miami (Ohio).

March Madness first four out

Oklahoma, San Diego State, New Mexico, Auburn.

Who is left on March Madness bubble?

  • SMU (ACC)
  • VCU (Atlantic 10)
  • Indiana (Big Ten)
  • Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
  • San Diego State (Mountain West)
  • New Mexico (Mountain West)
  • Auburn (SEC)
  • Missouri (SEC)
  • Oklahoma (SEC)
  • Texas (SEC)
  • Texas A&M (SEC)

March Madness automatic bids

Here are the teams that have already clinched automatic berths to the 2026 men's NCAA Tournament by virtue of winning their respective conference championships heading into Selection Sunday:

  • America East: Maryland-Baltimore County
  • ASUN: Queens
  • ACC: Duke
  • Big 12: Arizona
  • Big East: St. John's
  • Big Sky: Idaho
  • Big South: High Point
  • Big West: Hawaii
  • CAA: Hofstra
  • Conference USA: Kennesaw State
  • Horizon: Wright State
  • MAAC: Siena
  • MAC: Akron
  • MEAC: Howard
  • Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
  • Mountain West: Utah State
  • NEC: Long Island
  • Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
  • Patriot: Lehigh
  • Southern: Furman
  • Southland: McNeese State
  • SWAC: Prairie View A&M
  • Summit: North Dakota State
  • Sun Belt: Troy
  • WAC: Cal Baptist
  • WCC: Gonzaga

Here are the conferences that have yet to be determined:

All times Eastern

  • Ivy League: Penn vs. Yale | noon | ESPN2 (Fubo)
  • SEC: Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas | 1 p.m. | ESPN (Fubo)
  • Atlantic 10: Dayton vs. VCU | 1 p.m. | CBS (Fubo)
  • American: Wichita State vs. South Florida | 3:15 p.m. | ESPN (Fubo)
  • Big Ten: Michigan vs. Purdue | 3:30 p.m. | CBS (Fubo)

NCAA Tournament bids by conference

  • SEC: 10
  • Big Ten: 9
  • Big 12: 8
  • ACC: 8
  • Big East: 3
  • West Coast: 3
  • Atlantic 10: 2
  • MAC: 2

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament bracketology live bracket updates on Selection Sunday

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Preview & Game Thread: A guaranteed win?

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - FEBRUARY 06: Kevin Porter Jr. #7 of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles the ball against T.J. McConnell #9 of the Indiana Pacers during the fourth quarter at Fiserv Forum on February 06, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Milwaukee Bucks complete the second leg of their back-to-back today against the Indiana Pacers (or should I say “Tankers”). Yes, it’s pretty clear what result Indy wants today, so Milwaukee will just need to play semi-competently, and they should get across the line. The Bucks have won all three games in the season series thus far, and can complete the sweep today.

Where We’re At

The Bucks have now lost four straight and eight of their last nine, now 12 games below .500. Down Giannis, yesterday’s game was a tire fire; it featured a season-high 23 turnovers, and as Van pointed out in the rapid recap, there was a 30-14 points-off-turnovers disparity. Just ugly stuff all around. The season can’t end quickly enough.

As I alluded to, the Pacers—who were made to place 1-4 and 10-30 protections on their first-round pick in order to acquire Ivica Zubac—have been doing everything possible to give that pick the best chance of landing 1-4, shall we say. They have not won a single game since the All-Star break. Not one! I mean, this has been one of the most shameless tank jobs I’ve ever seen. A marasse of phantom injuries, illnesses, and unexplained substitution patterns. Maybe the most shameless has been how they’ve handled the aforementioned Zubac, who—before he was traded—was playing for the LA Clippers. However, when he landed in Indy, he mysteriously popped up on the injury report with an “ankle injury,” which he has only just returned from. Hmmm.

Injury Report

Having played yesterday, the Bucks’ injury report will come out at midday. Tyrese Haliburton and Johnny Furphy are out for Indy, while Pascal Siakam is doubtful. The following Pacers are questionable *clears throat*: Quenton Jackson, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard, Obi Toppin, and Ivica Zubac.

Player to Watch

Ryan Rollins has been much better over the last two games, dropping 22 points and eight assists (on 8/11 shooting) in their last one against Atlanta. Can he make it three straight awesome games?

How To Watch

FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin at 2:30 p.m. CDT.



Rockets best lineup leads to some uncomfortable conversations

I am afraid to write about Alperen Sengun.

This is not an appeal for sympathy. These are certainly not the worst problems I’ve encountered in my life. But, I will say that I have received literal death threats for observing that Alperen Sengun does not play defense very well.

If the internet is a cesspool, that points to broader issues with human nature. Is the internet a place where the confidence of anonymity emboldens people, or is that just a consequence of them taking their masks off?

Ugh.

Anyway, writing about the Houston Rockets necessitates writing about Alperen Sengun. Writing about Alperen Sengun, if you intend on preserving journalistic integrity, requires the occasional use of a critical lens. So here comes a piece that’s critical of Alperen Sengun.

Please don’t (threaten to) shoot the messenger.

Rockets’ best lineup does not feature their best young player

Per CleaningTheGlass, he’s not part of the Rockets’ best 2025-26 lineup.

That would be Clint Capela, Dorian Finney-Smith (yes, that Dorian Finney-Smith), Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, and Reed Sheppard. That group is +38.4 in 154 possessions. That’s not a massive sample size, but it’s consequential enough to talk about.

So what’s going on here?

Let’s turn to the increasingly fashionable databallr. When Sengun and Sheppard share the floor, they’re +0.2 in 816 minutes. The Rockets shoot 35.1% from deep when they share the floor.

Remove Sengun, add Capela. The Rockets are +14.1 in 467 minutes. The team shoots 40.2% from deep. Hypothesis:

Sheppard plays better with a big man who does the big man stuff.

He shoots better when he’s on the floor with a big man who sets jarring screens. He’s easier to insulate on defense alongside a – here comes the dirtiest word in Rockets fandom – a rim protector.

It’s only a theory. It’s possible that, in more extended minutes, defenses would adjust their coverage. Capela’s total inability to do, well, much of anything other than dunk on the offensive end could prove problematic.

What’s the solution here?

Rockets need more grit from Alperen Sengun

This is not a trade Alperen Sengun piece. Or, at least, that’s not the only solution that will be presented.

It is an “Alperen Sengun needs to play differently” piece. As gifted as he is, he’s not quite prodigious enough to have the Luka Doncic mentality (and realistically, even Luka Doncic needs to change his mentality). He can’t absolve himself from the dirty work if this team is going to succeed.

Last year, Sengun made dramatic strides on defense. He improved so much that he forced me to eat crow. I praised him profusely in public. A wholesale mea culpa. Self-flagellation to the point of deep bruising.

Now, it feels like I’m eating crow again.

Sengun has regressed to “is this guy viable” levels on defense. He needs to get back to his 2024-25 level. If he can’t defend that well while conserving energy for a large offensive role, he’s not worth rostering. Luckily, he did it last year, and he should be able to do it again.

One thing he’s never done is properly screen for his guards. That needs to change. Functionally, the Rockets need Sengun to be basically Sabonis-with-defense. He should be leveraging his high basketball feel to operate as a dribble hand-off hub. His ability to score in isolation should be part of the Rockets’ package as well, but when it’s his primary role, it doesn’t do much to elevate his teammates.

Here’s a simple NBA principle: If you don’t complement your teammates, there is a threshold you need to meet for individual productivity. Sengun isn’t reaching that (exceedingly high) threshold, so he needs to complement his teammates. That means making their life easier on defense and screening for shooters. If he can’t do that, the Rockets may have to have some uncomfortable conversations.

Sorry.

Pacers vs Bucks Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s NBA Game

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The Indiana Pacers are trying to shake a 12-game losing streak when they visit Fiserv Forum and the Milwaukee Bucks in an NBA Central Division battle.

With both groups playing fast and loose, my Pacers vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks expect a high-scoring mid-afternoon affair. 

Pacers vs Bucks prediction

Pacers vs Bucks best bet: Over 228.5 (-110)

The Indiana Pacers have lost 12 straight games, but their defense has been the bigger story, allowing nearly 120 points per game and an even worse 125.4 over their last 10 games. 

The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t exactly locking teams down either, giving up 119.4 per game during that same stretch.

Add in the Pacers’ fast pace and a Bucks team playing on no rest, and this game should have plenty of scoring chances. With both teams allowing so many points lately in an up-tempo game, the Over is the play.

Pacers vs Bucks same-game parlay

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s return to the lineup should fuel a convincing Bucks victory. He scored 31 points Thursday night at Miami, and Indiana's turnstile defense won’t be able or even willing to stop him.

Milwaukee has covered the number in two of its three meetings this season and faces a Pacers team that’s 1-9 ATS in its last 10 and 11-22 against the number as the road team this season.

Pacers vs Bucks SGP

  • Over 228.5
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 29.5 points
  • Bucks -7.5

Our "from downtown" SGP: Long-range Giannis

Indiana has struggled to defend the 3-point line, and while Giannis hasn’t made one in his last eight games, he's still been taking the shots. 

He’s attempted at least two threes in four of his previous five games, so the opportunity is there and the price is right (+150) if one finally drops.

Pacers vs Bucks SGP

  • Over 228.5
  • Myles Turner Over 8.5 points
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 0.5 threes
  • Bucks -7.5

Pacers vs Bucks odds

  • Spread: Pacers +7.5 | Bucks -7.5
  • Moneyline: Pacers +150 | Bucks -180
  • Over/Under: Over 236 | Under 236

Pacers vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Pacers have gone Over the total in 15 of their last 22 games for +7.3 units and a 30% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Bucks.

How to watch Pacers vs Bucks

LocationFiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
DateSunday, March 15, 2026
Tip-off3:30 p.m. ET
TVFDSN

Pacers vs Bucks latest injuries

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Game Preview: Knicks vs Warriors, March 15, 2026

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 15: Josh Hart #3 of the New York Knicks is guarded by Moses Moody #4 of the Golden State Warriors during the first quarter at Chase Center on January 15, 2026 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The New York Knicks (43*-25) host the Golden State Warriors (32-34) tonight at Madison Square Garden. Tipoff is at 8 p.m., the game is on NBC. The Knicks are fighting to hold their spot in the East’s top three and remain a game and a half behind Boston, while the Warriors are clinging to a play-in position on the wrong side of .500. Over their last ten games, the Knicks have gone 6-4, while Golden State has won just three.

The teams last met on January 15, 2026, at Chase Center. The Warriors won, 126-113. Jimmy Butler III led everybody with 32 points on 14-for-22 shooting, adding eight rebounds, four assists and two steals. Stephen Curry finished with 27 points and a team-high seven assists, while Moses Moody buried seven three-pointers for 21 points. For New York, playing without an injured Jalen Brunson, Deuce McBride and OG Anunoby scored 25 points apiece, and Karl-Anthony Towns grabbed 20 rebounds to go with 17 points.

The Warriors rank 15th in offensive rating and 14th for defense. They score 115.2 points per game on 46% shooting and 36% from deep, rank third in assists and second in steals, but give away the rock more than 15 times per game.

Curry was leading the NBA in three-pointers made per game (4.5) and averaging 27.2 points before going down with right knee pain in late January. Butler tore his ACL on January 19 and is done for the year. In their absence, Brandin Podziemski has averaged 16.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists over his last 12 starts. Draymond Green averaged 8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists before his back flared up. Gui Santos has averaged 6.8 points per game and has been given a starting role out of necessity.

Based on their last game against Minnesota, the Warriors’ likely starters tonight are Podziemski, De’Anthony Melton (1.5 SPG), Santos, Will Richard, and maybe Gary Payton II.

The Dubs will be severely depleted against the Knicks. “We’re going through it,” coach Steve Kerr said at NBA.com. “We’re about as beaten up as any team I can ever remember.” Their injury report has Green, Al Horford, Seth Curry, Porzingis, Moody, and Melton all ruled OUT, while Quinten Post is questionable with an ankle sprain. Curry remains sidelined with a knee injury expected to keep him out at least another 10 days, and Butler is out for the season after ACL surgery. 

For New York, Miles McBride remains OUT, while Josh Hart (left knee soreness), Towns (knee), Jeremy Sochan (illness), Tyler Kolek, Pacome Dadiet, Ariel Hukporti, and Trey Jemison are all listed as questionable.

Prediction

ESPN gives New York an 82% win probability tonight. That tracks. Given the limited numbers of players available and their lack of Curry and Green, all indications are that they will be pushovers. 

The Knicks, meanwhile, have won two straight unconvincing games against cellar dwellers. New York should blow this open early and let the bench crew ride it home with extended minutes. In recent years, Golden State has had their number, winning seven of their last ten head-to-head meetings, including three straight. New York will snap that streak tonight with a 12-point victory. We’ll forgive you for switching over to the Oscars at halftime.

Game Details

Who: New York Knicks (43*-25) vs Golden State Warriors (32-34)
Date: Sunday, March 15, 2026
Time: 8 PM ET
Place: Madison Square Garden, NYC
TV: NBC / Peacock
Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky

* Should be one more, but NBA Cup wins disappear like farts.

Khaman Maluach and the proven path of the redshirt rookie

Feb 22, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns center Khaman Maluach (10) defends against Portland Trail Blazers forward Kris Murray (24) in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

I have to admit, I am not much of a cook. Oh, I can keep myself fed and alive all right. I would just be eating a lot of spaghetti a lot of the time. But I am getting better every day. Every time I cook, I learn a little bit more about why this dish should have paprika and that dish should have smoked paprika.

My wife, in contrast, is an excellent cook and has taught me all that I know about cooking. She and I come from different backgrounds, however. She started cooking at a much younger age than I did. My parents didn’t teach me how to cook when I was younger, and I joined the Army after I graduated high school. I said my wedding vows before I ever had a kitchen of my own to learn in.

I have all of the tools I need to become a great cook someday. My vision works well enough to read a cookbook. The internet is full of vast quantities of knowledge that I can lean on. I have a desire to get better and the opportunity to do so. Most importantly, I have an experienced teacher who knows what she is doing. The only reason I am not a great cook already is because of the amount of time I have been cooking.

I submit to you that Khaman Maluach will be a good cook someday. He has all the tools he needs to be great. God sent the game of basketball for people like Khaman Maluach, with a 7’1” height and a 7’7” wingspan. All he needs is time.

This season, he hasn’t gotten much playing time at the NBA level. Before Mark Williams’ foot injury, the only real minutes he got in competitive games were in the G League. Since the Mark Williams injury was announced on March 5th, things have looked…rough for Khaman Maluach. He has had a game with 5 blocks and another with 9 rebounds, but he has also had a game in which, in 15 minutes of game time, he recorded neither a block nor a rebound.

We are seeing why Jordan Ott hasn’t had confidence in him to get real minutes in real games before he was required to. But before you go smashing the “He’s a bust!” button, let’s look at some other rookies in recent memory that got almost no playing time in their rookie years but went on to be productive players.


Ivica Zubac

I know this might sound crazy, but I think Ivica Zubac is a great comparison for Khaman Maluach, and could be the best outcome for the Suns’ young center. Zubac was a 19-year-old rookie among a cast of young players who were yet to establish themselves as fixtures in the NBA. Much like Maluach, his per-36 numbers as a rookie made him look like he could be a productive center with enough minutes, but the eye test told you that he had a way to go.

I think if Maluach was getting the sixteen minutes per game that Zubac got in his rookie year, their numbers may look almost identical. Fortunately for Suns fans, Maluach is playing on a better team than Zubac was in 2017, leaving fewer minutes open for the development of teenage prospects.

Today, Zubac is a really solid starting center. He was second team all-defense in 2024-2025 and was traded to the Indiana Pacers to be their Myles Turner replacement next year as they attempt to go back to the NBA Finals.

The per-36 numbers for these two are even more interesting. Maluach averages 11.4 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per-36. In his rookie year, Zubac averaged 16.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Maluach isn’t as polished a scorer as Zubac was in his rookie year, but it can be argued that he already does the dirty work better.

I like Zubac a lot. I would love to have him on my favorite team. If Maluach becomes Zubac, I will be ecstatic with his development. It is worth noting that Maluach is just a little bit bigger than Zubac and has displayed more athleticism. I believe this can lead to a higher defensive upside than the Pacers center has.


Rudy Gobert

I invite you to join me in la-la land as I compare the Phoenix Suns’ struggling rookie center with one of the greatest defensive centers in NBA history. But I ask you, why shouldn’t I? Look at the rookie numbers for Rudy Gobert compared to Maluach:

Now, I cannot say I was locked into Utah Jazz games in 2014, as I was busy trying to pass eighth-grade algebra. But what I will say is that Rudy Gobert is no special athlete, and in his rookie year, nobody would have guessed he would go on to win four DPOYs. Everyone knows that he is completely deficient on offense, and the Timberwolves star has never jumped out of any gym. 

What has made Rudy Gobert great is the fact that he is 7’ 1” and in the right place at the right time. Gobert is smart and has been used well by his coaches. When you marry these two ideas, you get a massive obstacle positioned in the right place to deter a lot of shots.

Gobert came into the league at 21 years old. By the time Maluach is 21 years old, I think he can be as good as 21 year old Gobert. I think he will probably be better. He might already be better.

The per-36 comparison is interesting here as well. As a reminder, Maluach averages 11.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per-36. Gobert averaged 8.6 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks. That puts rookie Maluach between Zubac and Gobert. Man Man is a better defensive player than Zubac, but a little worse on the offensive end. Compared to Gobert, he is a little better on offense but a little worse on defense.

Jordan Ott is a great coach. If Maluach works hard to learn as much as he can, if he continues to build his body up, and if his coaching staff continues to be really good at their jobs, Khaman Maluach has all the tools he needs to be Rudy Gobert.


Reed Sheppard

I want to leave you with the example that inspired my optimism about Maluach. Reed Sheppard is an odd comparison, I know. Two more different players may be hard to find. Sheppard is a small point guard. Maluach is a massive center. The only real comparison is that they were both top-10 picks (Sheppard went #3 to Houston) who didn’t have inspiring rookie seasons.

In fact, Reed Sheppard’s rookie year was a disaster. In a season where the Rockets put themselves back on the map in the post-Harden era, Sheppard could be found in the G-League or watching from the bench. When he did get in the game, it didn’t look good. An abysmal 35.1% shooting percentage is not what you want to see out of a rookie guard.

But this season, things changed. Sheppard is averaging 13.4 points and 3.2 assists on 42.8%/38.8%/80.5% splits. Is that a breakout star? No. Is it a 21-year-old finding his footing and turning into a viable NBA player? Yes.

This is the sort of sophomore season I am hoping to see out of Maluach. Maybe someday he will be a star, but next season I just want to see a viable backup center.


Khaman Maluach

Maluach has played great in the G-League this season. Does that mean he will turn into Rudy Gobert or Ivica Zubac? Of course not. He cannot pass the NBA test in the G-League, but failing in the G-League would’ve told us that he wasn’t ready for the NBA test.

Playing well in the G doesn’t mean everything, but it does mean something. Remember, Collin “Russell Westbrook” Gillespie once averaged 21 points, 11 assists, and 9 rebounds in the G-League.

Maluach can turn into a great player. Development doesn’t look the same for everyone. Some guys come into the league and dominate immediately. Others, like the three guys discussed, need a little more time. Give Maluach that time and watch as he grows.

He’ll figure out which dish needs paprika.

What are NET rankings? Quad 1 wins, more in NCAA Tournament bracket seeding

March Madness will be officially underway in just a few hours when the full 68-team NCAA Tournament bracket is released.

There are a handful of teams that are considered "locks" for the 68-team field that will get underway on Tuesday, March 17 with the first set of First Four games in Dayton. There are also a handful of teams that have already secured their spot in the field by way of winning their respective conference tournaments.

But as the countdown to the Selection Sunday bracket reveal show on CBS at 6 p.m. ET continues to tick down, there are some final bracket prognostications and debates ongoing about the bubble, which perhaps is as loaded as ever from past years.

Though one never knows what exactly takes place in these conversations, especially those a part of the selection committee, one can almost be certain that NET rankings and Quad 1 records will be brought up at some point during them.

But what exactly are quadrant wins, and how do they impact the NET rankings?

Here's what you need to know about the NCAA's NET rankings and more ahead of Selection Sunday:

What is the NET? Explaining NCAA ranking system

Created ahead of the 2018-19 men's basketball season by the NCAA, the NET rankings system is a data-driven sorting system used by the selection committee when evaluating teams' resumes for the 68-team field. It's widely considered the most important statistical tool in helping the committee make its decisions, but it also isn't the only thing they use.

It is first released in December and then is updated throughout the year. It resets each college basketball season, just as teams construct their rosters on a year-to-year basis, and does not include any past information or statistics.

There are two key factors that the NCAA uses in NET rankings:

  • Team Value Index: A results-based measure that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, with extra weight given to road and neutral-site wins.
  • Adjusted Net Efficiency: The difference between a team's offensive efficiency (points per possession) and defensive efficiency (opponents' points per possession), adjusted for opponent strength and game location.

There are three key factors not used in NET rankings: Game Date, Winning Percentage, and Scoring Margin. While scoring margin isn't factored into a team's NET rankings, their per-possession efficiency is. This means that teams benefit most from maximizing offensive efficiency and maximizing defensive efficiency.

In addition, a road win weighs more than a neutral site win for teams, while neutral site wins hold more weight than home wins for teams with their NET rankings. This, of course, all factors into a team's Quad 1 (Quad 2, Quad 3, and Quad 4) record.

What is a Quad 1 win?

A Quad 1 win is the crown jewel, prized possession for college basketball teams to secure over the season, as it impacts their NET rankings and projected NCAA Tournament seeding.

It is defined by location and opponent rank (not necessarily at the time of the game): a game at home vs. a team ranked 1-30 in the NET, a game at a neutral site vs. a team ranked 1-50, and a game on the road vs. a team ranked 1-75 in the NET.

As the case is for the other quadrants, Quad 1 games and records are flexible throughout the season.

Quad wins system explained

Perhaps the biggest sorting tool in the NET is a team's record vs. Quad 1 opponents. The better a team's record in Quad 1 games, the better the odds are for a team to make the 68-team field. On the other hand, if a team loses to a Quad 3 or a Quad 4 opponent, especially late in the season, that can be detrimental to their NCAA resume.

But what determines a Quad 1 game from a Quad 2 or a Quad 4? Well, two factors ultimately determine that for wins and losses:

  1. The opponent's ranking in the NET
  2. Whether a team faced their opponent at home, on the road or at a neutral site

Here is a breakdown of what differentiates a victory from a Quad 1 through Quad 4 win in men's college basketball per NCAA.com:

  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

There is also some flexibility in Quad wins, depending on how the season a team's record against Quad 1 opponents — just like Quad 2, Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents — can also change throughout the season. For example, if a team beats a Quad 2 team in January but that team becomes a Quad 1 team heading into the postseason, that becomes a Quad 1 win for that team. Similarly, if a Quad 1 team drops to a Quad 2 team or lower, that win would be removed from their Quad 1 record.

NET rankings on Selection Sunday

Here's a list of the top 16 teams in the country per the NCAA's NET rankings, which theoretically should result in the teams that will be seeded 1-4 in their respective regions come the bracket reveal show on Selection Sunday:

Ranking reflective of games through Saturday, March 14

  1. Duke
  2. Michigan
  3. Arizona
  4. Florida
  5. Houston
  6. Gonzaga
  7. Iowa State
  8. Illinois
  9. Purdue
  10. UConn
  11. Michigan State
  12. Virginia
  13. Nebraska
  14. Vanderbilt
  15. Louisville
  16. Arkansas
  17. Alabama
  18. Texas Tech
  19. Tennessee
  20. St. John's

Best Quad 1 records entering Selection Sunday

Duke leads the country with 16 Quad 1 wins this season. Here's a breakdown of which teams in the country have the best Quad 1 records entering Selection Sunday, per the NCAA:

Records reflective of games through Friday, March 14:

  • 1. Duke: 16-2
  • T2. Michigan: 15-2
  • T2. Arizona: 15-2
  • 4. Florida: 12-5
  • 5. Houston: 10-5
  • T6. Kansas: 9-9
  • T6. Purdue: 9-8
  • T6. Michigan State: 9-6
  • T6. Nebraska: 9-6
  • T6. Vanderbilt: 9-6

What time is Selection Sunday?

  • Date: Sunday, March 15
  • Time: 6 p.m. ET

The full 68-team bracket for the men's NCAA Tournament will be revealed at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15, assuming there are no outstanding conference tournament games still taking place.

The USA TODAY app gets you to the heart of the news — fastDownload for award-winning coverage, crosswords, audio storytelling, the eNewspaper and more.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What are NET rankings? Quad wins, more in NCAA Tournament bracket seeding

Open Thread: If the Spurs could relive one day of their life

The Spurs have been active this past week on Instagram. Between Jaylen Brown’s ejection, losing to the Nuggets, the team photo shoot, and then knotting up the series with the Charlotte Hornets, the Silver & Black have also been posting a lot from their player interview series.

This installment asks the guys what day they with to relive if they could repeat any from their childhood.

Devin Vassell took a laid back approach and determined he’d enjoy kicking it with his friends during the time in his life he referred to as “simpler.”

Victor Wembanyama, the consummate competitor, chose a day when he was eleven and won a big tournament.

Jordan McLaughlin was nostalgic for his birthday, and in particular the parties his parents threw for him.

Keldon Johnson also took a familial approach and could see himself riding bikes or playing outdoors basketball with his brothers.

The Spurs went 5-1 on their homestand and now head out for two back-to-back games in California. First up, the Clippers on Monday night followed by the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday evening.


Welcome to the Thread. Join in the conversation, start your own discussion, and share your thoughts. This is the Spurs community, your Spurs community. Thanks for being here.

Our community guidelines apply which should remind everyone to be cool, avoid personal attacks, not to troll and to watch the language.

10 takeaways from the Celtics dominating the Wizards inside

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MARCH 14: Neemias Queta #88 of the Boston Celtics looks to rebound the ball against Washington Wizards defenders during the second half at TD Garden on March 14, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images) | Getty Images

#1 – Aiming for weaknesses

Entering the game, the Washington Wizards were 26th at limiting shots at the rim and last at protecting the defensive rebound. So the Celtics just went for the paint and made sure they put pressure on the Wizards’ defensive frontcourt.

Overall, by the end, the Celtics created 19 more possessions thanks to offensive rebounds. Like Joe Mazzulla said after the game, you don’t want to rely only on offensive rebounds, but it must be controlled, especially on a night where the jump shots weren’t going in.

#2 – Neemias Queta eruption to get going

To start things off nicely, Queta decided to roll over the entire Wizards defense. He grabbed a lot of offensive rebounds and scored from putback situations, but the Celtics coaching staff also made sure to draw plays for him. Here, a Spain pick-and-roll where Sam Hauser sets the back-screen that blocks Alex Sarr. With Derrick White and Jayson Tatum in each corner, Queta has all the space he needs to finish at the rim.

It felt like he was always placed in the right position at the right time. On this beautiful drive and dish from Jaylen Brown, he arrives with perfect timing to place his layup. He also showed that he has developed a nice touch on the floater.

Like often, the space he was able to use was created by his ability to screen and roll. On that possession, he understands that the Wizards are switching and puts his defender on his back to have a better chance to catch the ball on the roll. Then he used the size advantage to dominate at the rim.

#3 – 12 minutes to put the Wizards away

Looking back at the game, it felt like the Celtics were largely in control entering the 4th quarter. The 20-point lead felt natural, but in reality the Celtics only dominated the 2nd quarter – but it was enough.

They started the second quarter with an interesting play that involved four different players, with a first movement starting with Payton Pritchard on the ball, then a second movement starting with Derrick White running toward the ball and Luka Garza.

This movement around the three-point line created chaos and space so the Celtics could once again attack the rim. During that stretch, the Celtics also dominated on defense, leading to a lot of transitions. This gave us some great highlights like this spin move from Queta, who was unstoppable last night.

This great momentum over those 12 minutes was enough to remain in control in the second half despite losing it 59 to 47.

#4 – Balanced scoring

There were questions about the Celtics’ balance with the return of Jayson Tatum. Last night’s game was a great display that there is enough room for everyone on a winning team.

Nobody took more than 20 shots, but six players scored at least 15 points and seven attempted eight field goals or more. There were also eight players with multiple assists, showing that the ball moves and everyone is involved.

But the scoring wasn’t only balanced player-wise. The Celtics also showed a very versatile performance in terms of shooting profile: 19 field goals made at the rim, 10 from the mid-range, and 12 beyond the line.

With the jump shots not falling, the Celtics didn’t get stuck in the mud and adapted. They were able to score a lot from putback situations, turning misses into new possessions, like Baylor Scheierman and his seven missed shots but four offensive rebounds.

#5 – Baylor feel was showing

Scheierman is among those players where you can see the game slowing down for him, so he is often a step ahead. This play with Sam Hauser is a great example of that feel for the game. He looks like he got caught, but he knows where Sam is located and finds him without even looking at him beforehand.

His feel is obvious on a highlight like this one but can be seen in less flashy situations too. His understanding of the game makes him a very good offensive rebounder. As the Celtics wanted to dominate that aspect of the game, they relied on him to put pressure on his matchup anytime a shot was triggered by one of his teammates.

It’s not a surprise that he keeps being the player with the most minutes behind the core six-man rotation late in the season.

#6 – Off-ball Tatum is a win-win

To get back to his final form, Jayson will need time, but his influence on a defense structure is already back. When he is off the ball, the defense still feels his gravity, which gives great space to his teammates. But it also gives him more speed. While he is getting back in shape and learning how to trust his legs again, having him off the ball to start the play can benefit him and make him a bigger threat.

On top of the speed, having him off the ball is a great way to optimize his shooting threat. When he doesn’t have the rock, the defense still keeps an eye on him. And as soon as he receives the ball, there are immediate collapses because the threat couldn’t be greater than Jayson Tatum with the rock and space.

On the play above, as soon as the basketball touches his hands, two defenders run to him, leaving White in the corner, and JT doesn’t hesitate for a second to swing the ball. A great example of why Tatum isn’t breaking the Celtics’ balance – he brings even more gravity and more connectivity to exploit defensive mistakes.

Of course, we want Tatum to play his isolation, but the impact he already has on the court when he doesn’t have the ball is back to elite – leading to great possessions for the team.

#7 – Tatum and Queta relationship

Speaking of Tatum, his relationship with Queta in the pick-and-roll has been growing through these first four games. And this might be a key to the Celtics’ success this season. When the offense was stuck last year, the Celtics didn’t hesitate to spam Tatum and Kornet pick-and-rolls. They could be doing the same this year with Queta.

The quality of Queta’s screens and his ability to play as a hub on offense offer a lot of possibilities for the Celtics to build around this duo.

On top of the benefits for them, this also creates great opportunities for the three other players around them, like here on that White triple.

It’s the same play that gave a layup to Queta, but this time the defense put more bodies in the paint, leading to a pass to Hauser. Tre Johnson rotates and that leaves White open in the corner. This is all caused by the pick-and-roll led by Tatum and Queta.

#8 – Could Tristan Vukčević be an interesting pick-up?

If there is one thing we learned over the last year, it is that the Celtics can turn a center on a two-way contract into a starter on a competitive team – and after watching this last game, I wonder if Tristan Vukčević could be the next one.

He has been in and out of the rotation for the Wizards over the last three years but could bring some interesting upside to the Celtics’ interior rotation. He has a great touch and we know how much Brad Stevens loves a center who can shoot.

Thoughts on the Serbian center?

#9 – There is always room to be better

I might be overthinking here but aren’t there always ways to improve, even in a game where you had a 30-point lead? Well, looking at last night’s game there is an area where the Celtics should have been better: transition defense.

The Wizards had a 1.63 points-per-possession efficiency in transition and this could be costly against better teams. While this might be due to a lack of seriousness because of the quality of the opponent, it could also happen against more competitive teams. With players crashing the offensive glass, there can be some lapses in the defense when the tagging-up isn’t well coordinated.

Could be worth monitoring against better teams coming to town over the next few weeks.

#10 – Some French influence in Boston?

Before the game, Joe Mazzulla talked about his meeting with Guillaume Vizade, Le Mans Basket head coach. They met back in France this summer and Mazzulla said he learned from the time they spent together. Could France have an influence on the Celtics’ new playstyle? More on that soon…

March Madness bracketology: NCAA Tournament final field prediction for Selection Sunday

It's a proverbial Christmas Day for fans of college basketball. The presents aren't opened in the morning. They're opened in the evening of Selection Sunday with the reveal of the men’s NCAA Tournament bracket of the 68-team field for March Madness.

So who will be the top seeds and who will see their bubble burst. The final version of the USA TODAY Sports Bracketology will answer those questions.

The No. 1 seeds appear straightforward with Duke going to the East Region as the top overall seed and Michigan, Florida and Arizona staying in their respective geographical areas in the Midwest, South and West part of the bracket.

It’s not so clear-cut at the bottom of the at-large selections. This year’s bubble saw several contenders flame out early in their conference tournaments. Auburn, Indiana, Cincinnati, West Virginia are among the teams that failed to win a game in the postseason. That opened the door for other contenders to make their case. San Diego State and Oklahoma each won two games but ultimately fell short of the field.

One bubble spot went to Miami (Ohio), the regular-season champion of the MAC that lost its only game of the season in the conference tournament, creating a bid-stealing situation with Akron grabbing the league's automatic spot. Texas and Missouri were able to withstand losses in the SEC tournament and keep their place.

There’s still some drama to unpack Sunday with five conference championship games. Should Dayton win the Atlantic 10 that could lead one of those aforementioned three teams sweating when the bracket is unveiled.

March Madness bracketology: NCAA Tournament prediction

Teams in bold have clinched tournament berth.

March Madness last four in

Texas, Missouri, SMU, Miami (Ohio).

March Madness first four out

Oklahoma, San Diego, New Mexico, Auburn.

NCAA tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: SEC (10), Big Ten (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Atlantic 10 (2), MAC (2).

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket prediction: Final NCAA Tournament bracketology

March Madness automatic bids 2026: What basketball teams won conference tournaments?

For weeks, the teams that make up the 68-team Men’s NCAA Tournament bracket have been a source of constant speculation, prompting heated discussions revolving around NET rankings, Quad One games and Wins Above Bubble.

For nearly half of the field, though, there isn’t a debate about whether they should be included.

The NCAA tournament rewards automatic bids to the champions of each of the 31 Division I conference tournaments. It’s a setup from which much of March’s madness comes, with small schools from the smallest conferences earning a chance to try to stun national powerhouses on the biggest, brightest stage their sport has to offer.

In the two weeks leading up to Selection Sunday, schools from across the country compete in conference tournaments, with a spot in the Big Dance on the line. For many of those leagues, it’s the only and only bid that’s available.

With the start of the tournament approaching, who has locked up those coveted spots? Here’s a look at who has earned automatic berths to the 2026 men's NCAA Tournament:

March Madness automatic bids 2026

Here’s a rundown of the team that have won their conference tournaments and earned bids to the 2026 NCAA Tournament:

  • America East: UMBC
  • ASUN: Queens
  • ACC: Duke
  • Big 12: Arizona
  • Big East: St. John's
  • Big Sky: Idaho
  • Big South: High Point
  • Big West: Hawaii
  • CAA: Hofstra
  • Conference USA: Kennesaw State
  • Horizon: Wright State
  • MAAC: Siena
  • MAC: Akron
  • MEAC: Howard
  • Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
  • Mountain West: Utah State
  • NEC: LIU
  • Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
  • Patriot: Lehigh
  • Southern: Furman
  • Southland: McNeese
  • SWAC: Prairie View A&M
  • Summit: North Dakota State
  • Sun Belt: Troy
  • WAC: California Baptist
  • WCC: Gonzaga

Here are the conferences whose championship games will play out on Sunday, March 15:

  • American: Wichita State vs. South Florida
  • Atlantic 10: Dayton vs. VCU
  • Big Ten: Michigan vs. Purdue
  • Ivy League: Yale vs. Penn
  • SEC: Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness automatic bids 2026: Full list of conference tournament champions

Kings reportedly signing former top prospect Killian Hayes to two-year contract

Kings reportedly signing former top prospect Killian Hayes to two-year contract originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Killian Hayes reportedly is staying in Sacramento.

The Kings are signing the 24-year-old guard to a two-year contract, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Sunday, citing Hayes’ agent Yann Balikouzou of LIFT Sports Management.

Hayes is a former No. 7 overall pick by the Detroit Pistons in the 2020 NBA Draft. He signed a 10-day contract with the Kings on Feb. 23, followed by a second 10-day on March 5. Now, Sacramento is set to lock him up for the next two seasons as the team deals with a barrage of injuries.

Across 10 games (one start) this season with the Kings, Hayes is averaging 3.8 points, 3.3 assists and 2.0 rebounds in 15.3 minutes, while shooting 26.9 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from 3-point range.

Sacramento now will hope to be rewarded for giving a former top prospect in Hayes a second chance in the NBA.

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What channel is NIT bracket revealed today? Time, TV for postseason basketball tournament

Selection Sunday is not limited to just the 68 teams selected for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Following the much-anticipated bracket reveal for March Madness at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15, all eyes turn to the National Invitation Tournament (NIT) bracket reveal. The 32-team field comprises teams that did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

The NIT is an invitation-only style tournament, which means that Division I teams must be extended an invitation by the selection committee to play in the game. It is one of several postseason tournaments that take place simultaneously with the NCAA Tournament.

While the First Four games of the NCAA Tournament get underway, the NIT will also begin its tournament on the same day, Tuesday, March 17.

Here's what you need to know about the NIT reveal on Sunday, March 15:

When is the NIT bracket released? 2026 NIT Selection Show start time

  • Date: Sunday, March 15

Following the reveal of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, the 2026 National Invitation Tournament (NIT) will be released on Sunday, March 15.

Who makes the NIT? 

The NIT bracket is a 32-team field.

With the addition of The College Basketball Crown tournament, the NIT has different eligibility qualifications for the second year in a row.

Sixteen "exempt" teams make up half of the field. Four spots are taken up by top teams from the ACC and SEC not selected for the NCAA tournament field, while the remaining 12 "exempt" spots go to the top team in the top 12 conferences, based on the KenPom Rankings.

The remaining 16 spots are automatic bids for conference regular season champions that have a "KNIT" score of 125 or better and at-large teams of the best available teams that did not make it into the tournament.

When is the NIT? Full schedule for 2026 tournament 

  • NIT start date: Tuesday, March 17
  • NIT championship: Sunday, April 5

The 2026 (NIT) is scheduled to tip off on Tuesday, March 17, with the first round of games, which also happens to be the first night of the First Four games in Dayton, Ohio.

The semifinals are scheduled for Thursday, April 2, at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, while the championship game is set for Sunday, April 5, from Gainbridge Fieldhouse, also in Indianapolis.

Hinkle Fieldhouse is the home of the Big East's Butler, while the NBA's Pacers and the WNBA's Fever play at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Here’s a breakdown of the NIT schedule: 

  • First round: Tuesday, March 17 and Wednesday, March 18
  • Second round: Saturday, March 21 and Sunday, March 22
  • Quarterfinals: Tuesday, March 24 and Wednesday, March 25
  • Semifinals: Thursday, April 2
  • Championship: Sunday, April 5

NIT history, past champions

Here's a look at past NIT champions dating back to 2000 per NCAA.com:

  • 2000: Wake Forest
  • 2001: Tulsa
  • 2002: Memphis
  • 2003: St. John's*
  • 2004: Michigan
  • 2005: South Carolina
  • 2006: South Carolina
  • 2007: West Virginia
  • 2008: Ohio State
  • 2009: Penn State
  • 2010: Dayton
  • 2011: Wichita State
  • 2012: Stanford
  • 2013: Baylor
  • 2014: Minnesota
  • 2015: Stanford
  • 2016: George Washington
  • 2017: TCU
  • 2018: Penn State
  • 2019: Texas
  • 2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
  • 2021: Memphis
  • 2022: Xavier
  • 2023: North Texas
  • 2024: Seton Hall
  • 2025: Tennessee–Chattanooga

* Denotes vacated by the NCAA

The list of all the NIT champions since 1938 can be found here.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NIT bracket reveal: Time, TV schedule, streaming info

Wizards Drop 11th Straight, Despite Celtics Poor Shooting Night

BOSTON, MA - MARCH 14: Bilal Coulibaly #0 of the Washington Wizards fight for the rebound during the game against the Boston Celtics on March 14, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

Here’s where the Wizards are at this point: losing by 11 to the Boston Celtics feels almost like an achievement. Most of the relative narrowness of that margin was due to Boston bricking open and wide-open threes they normally make, some working out of kinks related to Jayson Tatum’s return to the lineup, and probably a little Boston slacking off, but being almost kinda-sorta close to being almost competitive towards the end was…umm…something?

There was stuff in this game that I don’t recall ever seeing before. For example, Washington was +15 from three-point range in the first quarter and exited the period trailing by two.

Wizards wing Bilal Coulibaly dunks during the team’s loss to the Boston Celtics. | NBAE via Getty Images

Boston was so dominant on the boards, the broadcast team sent their stats guy to research the biggest single-game rebounding differential in franchise history. The Celtics were “only” =17 on the glass last night — well short of the franchise record (+52 during the Bill Russell era — Boston had 112 rebounds in that one game, believe it or not).

Washington’s defense was so bad, it revealed the “getting to watch good basketball” privilege enjoyed by Boston fans and analyst Brian Scalabrine. Scalabrine was baffled by Washington “choosing” not to defend Neemias Queta after the center went to help.

Several times, Scalabrine said he’d never seen a defense like the one Washington was playing — with no one cracking back to pick up the big. It was kinda cute that Scalabrine thought that was by design and not simply Washington defenders repeatedly blowing rotations they should be making.

The Wizards largely fixed the issue at halftime, by the way. Presumably the coaching staff reminded players to try a little.

The game revealed the oceanic distance Washington needs to cover to become a contender. Boston out-smarted, out-worked, and out-executed the Wizards all night long. The only thing keeping the final margin under 30 was the Celtics having an off night shooting the ball.

Thoughts & Observations

  • The first defensive possession game me some hope — Bilal Coulibaly blocked a Jaylen Brown attempt to bully-ball a bucket. The defensive intensity didn’t last.
  • Jayson Tatum looked pretty damn amazing considering he’s less than 10 months removed from tearing an Achilles. That injury used to be career-ending, or massively career-diminishing. Modern sports medicine is downright miraculous.
  • The possession ending at 9:54 in the first quarter is a good example that illustrates Scalabrine’s point that Washington just didn’t guard the big man when their center helped. It’s not scheme, though — it’s failure to execute. On the play, Washington seemed to switch a high pick-and-roll. Sarr took Brown and Coulibaly seemingly having responsibility for Queta. Then Coulibaly suddenly blitzed Brown, giving Washington three defenders on two guys 25 feet from the basket (Trae Young was lurking there because Sam Hauser was coming up for a Spain screen. Washington had two guys low — Will Riley on Tatum in the strongside corner (he correctly stayed home on Tatum), and Tre Johnson on Derrick White in the weakside corner. Johnson didn’t move until the ball was already reaching Queta, and his “help” was a pointless flyby swipe at the ball. Again, that’s not scheme — the responsibilities were clear. Johnson just didn’t notice what was happening.
  • Another? At 4:18, Sarr helped on a Tatum drive. I first thought no one rotated to help on Queta’s roll, but what actually happened was worse. Bub Carrington picked him up, and then just left him to run out and defend the weakside corner. I have no idea why he abandoned a seven-footer standing under the basket.
  • So, I was about to add Boston’s announcers to the list of mis-pronouncers of Tristan Vukcevic’s name. But, I got curious at the persistent and consistent mispronunciation, so I googled it. And, the NBA’s official pronunciation guide — one where the players say their own names — has Vukcevic saying his name is Vook-chevitch. I stand corrected and apologize to all the announcers I’ve criticized along the way.
  • Boston had many, many beautiful possessions in this game — great examples of teamwork, quick actions, and passes to create good shots, which they then missed because off night. A few examples, if you want to watch (use the official play-by-play on NBA.com)
    • 10:13, second quarter
    • 6:37, second quarter — a dribble handoff, a screen, a ghost screen, and a roll. Simply not guardable, even by a good defensive team.
    • 2:35 — A Spain pick-and-roll produces a Queta dunk.
  • Boston’s Spain pick-and-roll sets are so fun to watch. They’re fast, varied, and brutal to defend. They mix in misdirection, real screens, ghost screens, rolls, pops, and drives. Joe Mazzulla’s system is superb.
  • In the third quarter, Coulibaly had an impressive drive — Tatum couldn’t stay with him, and Queta couldn’t get there fast enough. Coulibaly missed the layup, but the turbo speed was cool to see.
  • Jaden Hardy scored 12 points on five shots in just 15 minutes of action.
  • Jamir Watkins competed on defense and hit shots.
  • Vukcevic pumped in 22 points in 20 minutes, including six threes. Tanktacular moment: Vukcevic hit his sixth three, and moments later got replaced in the game by Anthony Gill. LMAO.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORSWIZARDSCELTICSLGAVG
eFG%53.0%50.5%54.3%
OREB%20.0%39.6%26.0%
TOV%13.8%14.8%12.7%
FTM/FGA0.1310.1830.208
PACE9499.3
ORTG106118115.5

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Tristan Vukcevic204017625.1%6.029721
Jaden Hardy153019117.8%4.033217
Jamir Watkins244611626.9%0.117612
Bilal Coulibaly244810721.0%-0.9128-15
Bub Carrington224314411.3%1.41278
Justin Champagnie214212916.7%1.01248
Trae Young244811223.5%-0.395-23
Will Riley29588613.7%-2.327-17
Anthony Gill611609.1%-0.6-22-7
Sharife Cooper8156013.3%-1.1-38-11
Alex Sarr22433024.8%-9.2-84-25
Tre Johnson24485623.6%-6.7-128-23
CELTICSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Neemias Queta316116422.5%6.729014
Jayson Tatum326311825.8%0.519918
Derrick White357012619.3%1.414433
Luka Garza153016428.0%4.12042
Jaylen Brown316010723.7%-1.2858
Sam Hauser265211417.4%-0.18629
Baylor Scheierman25487315.8%-3.230-6
Payton Pritchard30596214.0%-4.5-25-6
Hugo Gonzalez9190.0%0.0-107-22
Amari Williams2311059.5%-0.1292-5
Max Shulga230.0%0.00-5
Ron Harper Jr.23029.9%-1.1-654-5

Fantasy Basketball Week 21 Schedule Primer: It's playoff time!

For those competing in Yahoo! default leagues, Week 21 marks the start of the playoffs. And there won't be a lack of action, as all 30 teams are scheduled to play at least three games, with two playing five. Friday and Sunday are the light game days, with six scheduled on Friday and five on Sunday. Below is a look at the Week 21 schedule and some of its key storylines.

Week 21 Games Played

5 Games: PHX, WAS

4 Games: ATL, BKN, BOS, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NOR, ORL, POR, SAS

3 Games: CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, IND, MIA, MIL, NYK, OKC, PHI, SAC, TOR, UTA

Week 21 Back-to-backs

Sunday (Week 20)-Monday: DAL, GSW, POR

Monday-Tuesday: ORL, PHX, SAS, WAS

Tuesday-Wednesday: DEN, IND, MIN, OKC

Wednesday-Thursday: CHI, LAC, LAL, NOR, UTA

Thursday-Friday: DET

Friday-Saturday: ATL, GSW, HOU, MEM

Saturday-Sunday: PHX, WAS

Sunday-Monday (Week 22): BKN, POR, TOR

NBA: Washington Wizards at Miami Heat
Bam Adebayo dropped 83 points on the Wizards on Tuesday night. How does his performance stack up among the best individual fantasy performances?

Week 21 Storylines of Note

- The Suns and Wizards are the teams to target for streaming options.

Phoenix and Washington play five games during Week 21, with two back-to-backs within the week (no wraparounds). That makes some of the low-rostered players on these teams more attractive in leagues without a games-played cap. While Grayson Allen has been a question mark for back-to-backs, that has not been the case for Collin Gillespie or Royce O'Neale. Oso Ighodaro has a higher ceiling filling in for Mark Williams at center, but he has not been a lock to play starters' minutes.

As for the Wizards, their handling of playing time and availability has been a bit tricky since the All-Star break, but there's still value to be found. Tristan Vukčević may have added value in spots where Alex Sarr does not. Bilal Coulibaly played well to finish Week 20, but he's another player whose availability for back-to-backs has not been guaranteed. Justin Champagnie, Tre Johnson and Will Riley have silly season standout potential, but we'll see how much they'll play in Week 21.

- The Bulls and Pistons are the teams to avoid at the end of Week 21.

Not only do Chicago and Detroit have three-game weeks, but their Week 21 schedules are brutal. The Bulls play their final game of the week on Thursday, while the Pistons will be done on Friday. And those games are part of back-to-backs. Chicago's back-to-back on Wednesday and Thursday could be problematic for multiple players, including Josh Giddey and Jalen Smith, although the former played both games of Chicago's most recent back-to-back.

As for the Pistons' back-to-back on Thursday and Friday, Isaiah Stewart's recent calf strain is worth watching. The clear priority will be to ensure that everyone is healthy for the postseason, so key contributors like Stewart, Ausar Thompson and Cade Cunningham could be in line for a day off at the end of Week 21. And both teams miss out on the light game day in Week 21, which falls on Sunday.

- Like Phoenix and Washington, the Trail Blazers have two back-to-backs to navigate.

Portland's two back-to-backs are wraparounds, and both involve the Brooklyn Nets. For their first back-to-back, which begins in Philadelphia on the final day of Week 20, the Trail Blazers visit the Nets the following night. And Portland hosts Brooklyn in the second game of its final back-to-back of the week, which is preceded by a game in Denver on March 22. Could those two Nets games be ones in which Deni Avdija sits? Or will his availability not be an issue? To a lesser extent, Robert Williams III will also be affected by the schedule, but he's rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo! leagues because of the availability question mark.

- The Raptors and Jazz don't play their first games of Week 21 until Wednesday.

Toronto and Utah's low-rostered players will be more valuable to fantasy managers at the end of Week 21 than at the beginning, since neither team will play its first game until Wednesday. Collin Murray-Boyles has been out with a thumb injury, freeing up a few more minutes for Sandro Mamukelashvili. However, unlike earlier this season, when the Raptors were either without Jakob Poeltl or the incumbent's playing time was limited, Mamu's opportunities have not been as plentiful. Regarding the Jazz, players like Kyle Filipowski, Brice Sensabaugh, and Isaiah Collier will be worth adding at the start of the week. Fantasy managers can afford to hold off on the others.

- How much value will fantasy managers get from the Warriors during Week 21?

The back-to-back on Friday and Saturday to end Week 21 may be problematic for the Warriors, who ended Week 20 incredibly shorthanded due to injuries. Stephen Curry (knee) remains out, but the most recent report has him being re-evaluated during Week 21. Add in the likes of Draymond Green, Al Horford, Kristaps Porziņǵis and De'Anthony Melton, whose availabilities have not been guaranteed, and fantasy managers may have to rely on players like Gui Santos and Pat Spencer to end the week.