Category: NBA

Part of the process of crafting a fantasy basketball team, whether it's in a snake draft or a salary draft, is finding positive value. Can you unearth a potential "diamond in the rough," or pay a lower cost for an elite talent than expected? Doing so can make all the difference between winning a league and finishing out of the money.

However, in addition to seeking those players, fantasy managers need to identify players who should probably be left alone based on their average draft positions. Below is a list of ten players who should not be drafted at their current ADPs, beginning with a player who's led the NBA in rebounding three straight years.

ADP data credit: Hashtag Basketball

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1. C Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings

Yahoo! ADP (as of October 2): 10.9

Sabonis' production isn't up for debate. However, his ADP as of October 2 was a bit too high. Last season, he appeared in 70 games, averaging 19.1 points, 13.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 three-pointers. While Sabonis' rebounding and scoring output held steady compared to his 2023-24 production, the assists decreased by more than two per game. The Kings added DeMar DeRozan last offseason, but that wasn't the most problematic roster change.

Sacramento traded point guard De'Aaron Fox to San Antonio just before the February deadline, adding Zach LaVine as part of the multi-team deal. From February 6 onward, Sabonis averaged 16.0 points, 13.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 three-pointers per game. It's possible that the Kings addressing the point guard position by adding Dennis Schröder helps, but he's another playmaker who needs to have the ball in his hands. That may negatively impact Sabonis' assist value and scoring opportunities.

2. PF/C Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

Yahoo! ADP: 16.9

Many expect Banchero to be a breakout player this season after recording career-highs in points, rebounds and three-pointers in 46 games played in 2024-25. However, expecting second-round value from the Magic forward may be a bit ambitious, given Banchero's fantasy history. He's yet to produce a top-100 season in either per-game value or totals, and the same can be said of his per-36 fantasy numbers according to Basketball Monster. Can Banchero produce a top-100 season? Given his talent and the changes made to the Magic roster, absolutely. However, expecting a top-20 season, which is what his current ADP implies, is a bit much.

3. SF/PF LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

Yahoo! ADP: 18.3

There's no denying James' greatness, and for him to be as effective as he was last season was nothing short of remarkable. That said, he'll turn 41 in December, which may result in more injury management measures being taken despite the Western Conference being loaded. James has played at least 70 games each of the last two seasons, the first time he's done this since his final three seasons in Cleveland. In 2018-19, James was limited to 55 games played. LeBron did finish last season as a top-20 player, exceeding his Yahoo! ADP of 24.5. Expecting similar production, especially with the Lakers entering their "Luka Dončić era," may prove to be unrealistic.

4. PG/SG De’Aaron Fox, San Antonio Spurs

Yahoo! ADP: 26.8

Fox's first full season in San Antonio has already gotten off to an inauspicious start, as he'll likely miss the beginning of the regular season with a hamstring injury. Also of concern is the potential production, especially with a healthy Victor Wembanyama set to command touches after missing the post-All-Star break portion of last season due to injury. In 17 games for the Spurs last season, Fox averaged 19.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 three-pointers. While the rebounds took a slight hit and the assists increased compared to his pre-trade numbers in Sacramento, Fox's scoring decreased by more than five points per game. To approach top-25 value as some expect him to, Fox will need to boost those numbers as part of a lineup that will be more talented (and healthier) than it was last season.

5. SG/SF Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

Yahoo! ADP: 30.5

Brown's preseason fantasy value has been boosted by Jayson Tatum being sidelined by a ruptured Achilles tendon and the Celtics losing multiple rotation players by trade or free agency. The roster changes set Brown up to be a more productive player, but this also means opposing defenses will pay even more attention to him defensively. Brown, who underwent knee surgery during the offseason, has just two top-50 fantasy seasons to his credit. And the early ADP does not take into account the possibility of the occasional rest day, especially if the Celtics aren't a factor in the East.

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6. C Ivica Zubac, LA Clippers

Yahoo! ADP: 36.2

Zubac enjoyed the best season of his NBA career in 2024-25, posting career-best averages in points, rebounds, assists and steals. However, expecting the 7-footer to approach top-30 value for a second straight season is a bit much, especially with the additions the Clippers made during the offseason. The two most impactful moves concerning Zubac were the signings of John Collins, who will likely start at the four, and Brook Lopez to fill the backup center role. Zubac played 32.8 minutes per game, the first time his average as surpassed 30 minutes. It would be unsurprising if his playing time dipped under 30 in 2025-26, thus lowering Zubac's fantasy ceiling.

7. SG/SF Josh Hart, New York Knicks

Yahoo! ADP: 49.8

Hart was likely a league-winning player for many managers who selected him in drafts ahead of the 2024-25 season, as he was nearly a top-25 player in per-game value and nearly top-10 in totals. However, that was under Tom Thibodeau, who was more than willing to have his best players log heavy minutes. Hart moving to the bench during the Eastern Conference Finals may have been a harbinger of what's to come, especially with Mitchell Robinson being healthy. Add in a new head coach in Mike Brown, and Hart's fantasy ceiling may be lower than many managers believe it to be. Also, he underwent surgery on his right index finger in July and aggravated the injury during an offseason workout. Hopefully, that won't be a serious issue during the regular season, but the finger injury is something else for fantasy managers to consider when evaluating Hart.

8. SG/SF RJ Barrett, Toronto Raptors

Yahoo! ADP: 77.4

Based on his early ADP numbers, there's no shortage of managers who believe Barrett may have a top-75 season in him. Based on Toronto's roster and Barrett's fantasy history, those expectations are unrealistic. Barrett has yet to finish a season ranked inside the top-150 in per-game value, and he has one such season in roto (2020-21). As for the roster, the Raptors also have Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes healthy, not to mention Brandon Ingram, who's fully recovered from the ankle injury that limited him to 18 games last season (all with the Pelicans). Given the number of players who will command touches within the Raptors system, Barrett's ADP is too high at this point in the preseason.

9. C Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat

Yahoo! ADP: 83.7

Ware had a productive rookie campaign, finishing sixth in Rookie of the Year voting and averaging 9.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.1 blocked shots per game. After moving into the starting lineup in January, he averaged 10.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.2 blocks in 27.8 minutes while shooting 54.4 percent from the field. However, Ware will have to earn the right to remain in the starting lineup, and Miami's lack of proven bigs behind Bam Adebayo could result in the Heat staggering Ware and Adebayo's minutes more than they did down the stretch last season. Is a top-100 season possible? Absolutely. But betting on Ware to finish safely within that threshold is a serious roll of the dice.

10. PG/SG Keyonte George, Utah Jazz

Yahoo! ADP: 113.0

George recorded improved averages in points, rebounds, assists, steals and three-pointers last season, which was his second in the NBA. However, he was moved to the bench in favor of then-rookie Isaiah Collier, who offered more as a distributor and defender, in late January. Collier may not have done enough to claim the starting point guard job as his own, as evidenced by Utah's decision to use one of its first-round picks on former Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. Unless he's somehow out of the rotation completely, which should not happen, Expecting George to approach top-100 value with Utah's current logjam at the point guard position is overly optimistic.

In the end, Kuminga and his agent settled. They had very publicly stated for months that they would consider the qualifying offer if the Warriors didn't increase their two-year offer, or make it a player option for the second year. Then, with the Oct. 1 deadline looming, Kuminga and his agent took what the Warriors had on the table: Two years, $46.8 million with a team option in the second year. A contract that makes Kuminga a trade target (who has no control over where he lands).

In Warriors training camp on Thursday, Kuminga played it right down the middle and said all the right things about wanting to win and be with the Warriors long term. Here are some quotes, courtesy of NBC Sports Bay Area, starting with the question of whether Golden State is where he wanted to be (after spending part of the summer searching for a sign-and-trade).

"I'm here now. "That's everybody's goal, to be somewhere for longer. You never know your future ... It's a business. At the end of the day all that matters is we got it done and I'm excited to be here ...

"Helping us win. Finding a way to help us win on both ends. Defense, offense, find a way to be a piece that's going to help us win games and hopefully a championship."

Kuminga likely will be Steve Kerr's sixth man this season, because Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler have to start and they take Kuminga's position on the court (plus that's too many non-shooters to play together in the modern NBA). That said, if the Warriors are going to shop Kuminga and look to trade him at next February's deadline — and they are — then Steve Kerr has to showcase Kuminga at points in the first part of the season. The challenge is that Kuminga is a ball-in-his-hands, head-down, drive-to-the-paint style player in a Warriors system that emphasizes ball movement, quick decisions, and moving off the ball. Kuminga is not a natural fit for how Kerr wants to play, which has led to the much-discussed tension between the two.

It may not have been what he wanted, but Kuminga taking the two-year, $46.8 million offer was the right move. Kuminga and his agent did what they were supposed to do — everything they could to get a better offer, publicly and privately — but in the end, accepting an offer paying him $22.5 million this year rather than the $8 million qualifying offer is just smart for a player who has never made more than $7.6 million in a season. This year's salary alone nearly doubles Kuminga's career earnings, it would have been a mistake to leave that money on the table.

If Kuminga wants to land in a better spot where he will be a more featured player, he's going to have to show out to start this season. At least to start, he is saying all the right things.

We’ve made it to the end of the longest WNBA season to date — one which featured several twists and turns to make for an unpredictable and entertaining 2025 season. Fittingly, the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury have illustrated the unpredictability to a tee as the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals gets underway on Friday night in Las Vegas.

Outside of their own locker room, who thought that the Aces would be able to withstand the storm that was the first half of the season? It took back-to-back A’ja Wilson 30-point, 10-rebound double-doubles to land a couple of wins before the All-Star Break to secure an 11-11 record at the midway point. Vegas got popped 109-78 by Minnesota less than a week after the break, before reaching rock-bottom with a 53-point thumping from those same Lynx eight days later.

Yet, the embarrassment of the near-record-setting defeat may have also been the turning point — led by a Wilson MVP run, they pulled off a remarkable 16-game winning streak to close the regular season, allowing them to have two crucial series-deciding home games against the Storm and Fever during this playoff run.

As for the Phoenix Mercury, the consistency shown throughout their 44-game regular-season games didn’t come with the same attention that the Aces’ final stretch did. After having players in and out due to injury and signing DeWanna Bonner to begin the month of July, their regular season was at times inconsistent. The Mercury ended their regular season with three straight losses to teams that didn’t make the WNBA playoffs in the Sun, Wings, and Sparks.

Still, the Mercury's seven postseason games may speak louder than what the Aces have done to get here. On the back of MVP finalist Alyssa Thomas, the Mercury served the final blow to the New York Liberty, who could rarely find cohesion this season in their first-ever title defense, before taking down the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in four games. With two championship favorites out, there remains one box left unchecked for the Mercury to capture their first title since 2014.

As we near the start of the WNBA’s first-ever best-of-seven championship series, our staff previews the matchup and key storylines, as well as our predictions for who will come out on top.

▶ What is the most obvious challenge each team will face?

Cole Huff: The most obvious challenge Las Vegas will face is scoring on Phoenix’s top-rated postseason defense. The Liberty and Lynx had top-five offensive ratings and were among the five highest-scoring teams during the regular season before running into the well-oiled machine that is the Mercury’s top-rated postseason defense. Phoenix held its semifinal opponents under 80 points twice in regulation and didn’t allow more than 73 points to its first-round opponent — Wilson and Jackie Young will likely need other Aces players to join the party offensively on a more consistent basis than against the Fever if they want to avoid being the latest offense to be handcuffed by the Mercury’s defense.

Coincidentally, the Aces currently carry the highest offensive rating of any team this postseason, which could deliver the Mercury plenty of challenges. Whether it's been a group effort, like in their Game 3 victory over the Fever in which five players scored in double figures or in the series-clinching win when Wilson and Young became the first pair of teammates to score 30 or more points in the same playoff game, the Aces have had the type of offense through eight postseason games that could overcome Phoenix’s defense.

Jackie Powell: The Mercury pose many challenges to the Aces and that includes how Las Vegas will attempt to guard Alyssa Thomas, the Mercury’s point forward that essentially operates on the floor like a point guard rather than a front court player. If A’ja Wilson is assigned to guard Thomas, the Aces run the risk of having to play their Defensive Player of the Year and MVP on the perimeter rather than protecting the paint and protecting the rim.

But besides how the Aces decide to guard Thomas, the most obvious challenge the Aces will face is how the Mercury approach physicality on both ends of the ball. The Aces struggled defending Aliyah Boston for that very reason and so how will they handle the ways in which Thomas can overpower opponents on offense while also suffocating them on defense.

Now on the flip side, how will the Mercury guard Wilson when Natasha Mack isn’t on the floor? Mack usually starts games but often hasn’t closed them as the Mercury have opted for a more offensive-friendly lineup that features DeWanna Bonner instead which is understandable since Mack doesn’t add much floor spacing and is most used offensively in the dunker spot. Or how about when Katheryn Westbeld, a serviceable stretch big, is subbed in Mack’s place. How are the Mercury guarding Wilson?

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▶ Who is each team’s X-Factor and why?

Huff: Calling a former Finals MVP an X-Factor could seem like a slight, but in this case, I truly think of Chelsea Gray as the difference-maker for the Aces. While Wilson keyed the Aces’ 16-game win streak to end the season, Gray was quietly very productive over that span. Her functionality as a floor general remains massive for the Aces’ offense. Still, when she’s been productive as a scorer during this playoff run, it’s usually yielded positive results for Las Vegas. If Gray can remain a consistent scoring threat throughout this matchup, life will be much easier for the Aces’ two all-stars.

On Phoenix’s side, I’m going to take the easy route here and give two names: DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb. Both veteran players come off the bench, log starter-level minutes, and provide the Mercury with perimeter shooting and high basketball IQ. Their values have already been on display down the stretch of some of these playoff games, particularly against the Lynx in the semifinals. Both players will have their moments during the Finals, but the number of moments they have could be the difference between wins and losses.

Powell: I agree with all of Cole’s picks, but on the Aces side I’m going to be really looking at how much Dana Evans contributes and how head coach Becky Hammon uses her to exploit the Mercury’s defense especially when Sami Whitcomb—who’s typically one step slower defensively—is on the floor. Evans puts so much pressure on the rim and when the Mercury are in one of their more offensive-friendly lineups without Mack and Monique Akoa Makani, where are they getting rim protection and high level perimeter defense from?

A number of the Mercury’s clutch moments in these playoffs have been as a result of DeWanna Bonner. If she’s made a circus shot at the end of the shot clock or finally hit a wide open three-pointer after missing so many previously, she’s been finding ways to lift the Mercury when they need it the most. Her heroics are going to have to continue if Phoenix is going to win this series. But also on the defensive end, the Mercury are going to have to leverage Bonner’s length especially when the Aces will look to exploit the Mercury’s size with speed. Bonner is going to be relied upon heavily on switches to impede the field of view of guards like Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd.

▶ The Aces will win this series if…

Huff: Much like their second-round opponent, the Aces will face a physical opponent in the Finals — they need to match Phoenix’s physicality to win this series. Thomas and Kahleah Copper, in particular, are likely to get downhill repeatedly, making it crucial for Las Vegas to defend without fouling and then clean up misses with defensive boards. The Aces have been one of the least productive defensive rebounding teams thus far — keeping the Mercury away from second-chance points and keeping them off the line would force their offense to put the ball in the basket to score points, which it hasn’t done efficiently to this point in the postseason. With said physicality and rebounding being necessities in this series, I expect NaLyssa Smith to play a big role for Vegas in its quest for championship No. 3.

Powell: If Aces head coach Becky Hammon can figure out how to exploit and successfully guard the Mercury’s inverse pick-and-roll where Thomas is screened by either Monique Akoa Makani or Sami Whitcomb, Las Vegas puts themselves in a very favorable position to win the series. That inverse pick-and-roll has been one of the Mercury’s most successful plays during the postseason and part of the reason why teams have struggled to guard it is because a strong guard has to be able to take a lot of contact on the switch from Thomas. Courtney Williams struggled with this in the semifinals and Sabrina Ionescu also couldn’t always keep pace with Thomas in the first round. The Aces, however, might have the strongest guard in the league in Jackie Young, who could be the very player to neutralize the play.

▶ The Mercury will win this series if…

Huff: While I could roll with the Mercury’s dominant defense being the reason why they run through the tape and earn their fourth WNBA championship, the more obvious factor, I believe, is receiving the best version of Satou Sabally. In the Mercury’s two playoff losses, she’s averaging 9.5 points on 5-of-28 shooting (17.9 percent); in the five wins, she’s up to 21.2 points on 31-of-69 from the field (44.9 percent). With her shooting stroke and ability to get downhill as a 6-foot-4 wing, Sabally has the tools to be a matchup nightmare for the Aces. Phoenix will bring home the championship if she has a big series.

Powell: The only times the Mercury have lost games in the postseason has been when their opponent has made more three-pointers and has rebounded better than the Mercury. That might sound simple, but this formula also applies to a seven-game WNBA Finals. Also, if the officials allow more contact rather than less as they have during the entire playoffs, the Mercury will use that to their advantage. Like Cole noted above, if Phoenix’s defense can wear down the Aces and subsequently successfully turn them over, the Mercury’s margin for error widens especially when Thomas can play make and create easier offense in transition.

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▶ Prediction time: Who will win the series and in how many games? Who will win finals MVP?

Huff: The Mercury have put together an encouraging run thus far, despite other teams’ injuries, and have clear momentum entering Friday night — they’ve been the best team this postseason, in my honest opinion. That said, even with the Aces having struggled to put away some of the lower seeds, I’m picking them to win this series. Vegas defeated Phoenix in three of the teams’ four matchups this season, with the Aces’ lone loss being a game A’ja Wilson missed due to being in the league’s concussion protocols. All seven games will be needed, however, with homecourt advantage ultimately being what does it for head coach Becky Hammon’s squad. Wilson collects her second Finals MVP award along the way to add to her trophy room.

Powell: Cole and I differ on this one simply because I truly believe the Mercury have been the team of destiny this entire post season. They also have exploited the weaknesses of their opponents incredibly well and I don’t expect that to stop in the WNBA Finals. Head coach Nate Tibbetts has successfully gotten his team to buy into playing physical and sometimes exaggerated the defense they play which has led to even more inconsistencies from the officiating crews. Yes, I just went there! I don’t expect the Aces to roll over, especially when they have two of the best players in the league in Wilson and Young. But, reliable depth matters in a series that will be the longest in WNBA history. I trust the Mercury’s depth more than the Aces’ and so I’m picking the Mercury to win it in six games on their home court.

When it comes to the MVP, my choice is a bit unconventional. Thomas is going to be targeted by the Aces and she’ll be getting multiple looks throughout the series. But the ultimate matchup nightmare for Las Vegas might be Satou Sabally, who if she can keep her shot selection within herself instead of forcing shots, will have the chance to be the Mercury’s most efficient offensive player. Just like how the Minnesota Lynx a year ago had difficulty stopping Jonquel Jones because so much of their energy was on Breanna Stewart, I believe the same will happen this year with Sabally. Her combination of length, speed and shooting will be too much for an Aces team that’s best lineup is when they play smaller.

From the day Kevin Durant was traded — casting a shadow over Game 7 of the NBA Finals before it even tipped off — it was expected that he would sign a two-year, nine-figure contract extension in Houston. It was a question of when, not if.

Houston has opened training camp, and the when has yet to happen. Not that it is concerning anyone.

"I do see myself signing a contract extension. I can't tell you exactly when it'll happen, but I do see it happening," Durant said at Rockets media day.

ESPN's Brian Windhorst echoed that, speaking on the Hoop Collective Podcast.

"I've talked to the Durant camp, and even beyond what Kevin said [at media day], there's very good optimism that they're going to have a deal. But, ain't a deal till it's a deal."

Durant can sign a max extension of two years, up to $122 million. The two-year part is non-negotiable. Durant wants it, and the Rockets can't give him more than two years due to the over-38 rule in the CBA (a rule that limits the length of contracts for older players, something owners have had in place for a few CBAs now to protect themselves from themselves).

As always, it's about the money. It was always expected that Durant would take less than the max to get to a place he could contend for a title — but not that much less. The expectation prior to the trade was that Durant still wanted two years and north of $100 million, something closer in average to the $54.7 million he is making this season. The sides are undoubtedly hashing it out, and the fact that the Rockets are also discussing an extension with Tari Eason (and any extension he signs would take effect next season) complicates the long-term financial picture.

That said, a deal will get done.

In the end, the Rockets need Durant. He is a perfect fix for their half-court offensive woes, the issue that led to them getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs as the No. 2 seed last April. Durant averaged 26.6 points, six rebounds, and 4.2 assists a game last season while shooting 43% from three-point range. At age 37, Durant is still a walking half-court offense in and of himself.

The sides will come to a deal. Eventually. And neither side seems particularly stressed about it at this point.