Category: NBA

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a tall order for the Milwaukee Bucks, with the Oklahoma City Thunder installed as a big road favorite tonight.

Speaking of tall orders, OKC big man Chet Holmgren has had to play even bigger than his slender 7-foot-1 frame over the past month. 

My Thunder vs. Bucks predictions focus on Chet’s spike in rebounding, facing one of the worst teams at cleaning the glass. 

Here are my NBA picks for January 21.

Thunder vs Bucks prediction

Thunder vs Bucks best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds (-110)

Chet Holmgren’s role in the Oklahoma City Thunder frontcourt has been amplified since losing fellow big man Isaiah Hartenstein to a calf strain in late December. The most notable change in Chet’s output has come on the glass. 

Before the heftier Hartenstein went down, Holmgren was grabbing 7.9 rebounds per game on an average of 14.3 rebounding chances. In the 11 games without Hartenstein, Holmgren’s pulling down 10 boards on 17.6 rebounding chances a night.

In fact, Chet has been making a conscious effort to be bigger on the boards over the past two weeks.
 
After recording only six rebounds in a shocking loss to the Hornets on January 5, the 7-foot Gonzaga product noted the dip in rebounding without Hartenstein and pointed the finger at himself for not picking up the slack. Holmgren had this to say:

I just got to look in the mirror and be better in that area.

Since that game, Chet has recorded double figures in rebounds in four of his last six outings, and he has an excellent opportunity to add another 10+ boards vs. the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks enter Wednesday with the second-lowest rebound rate in the NBA (47.6%), watching foes collect 54.7 rebounds per game (11th most). Milwaukee could also be down standout center Myles Turner and reserve Kevin Porter Jr. (who combine for more than 10 rebounds an outing).

Holmgren’s projections sit between 8.5 and 10 rebounds, with the majority of models pointing to another 10+ rebounds. My number comes out to 10.5 boards, which should have the Over 9.5 priced around -130.

Thunder vs Bucks same-game parlay

Milwaukee is offensively challenged at the best of times, without the help of the NBA’s stingiest defense.

Ryan Rollins sees a significant split in scoring at home, averaging four more points on 50% shooting.

Thunder vs Bucks SGP

• Thunder -9.5
• Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds
• Ryan Rollins Over 13.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Thunder Struck Bucks

The Bucks are one of the best Under bets in the NBA, and they're now facing OKC's top defense.

Thunder vs Bucks SGP

• Thunder -9.5
• Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds
• Ryan Rollins Over 13.5 points
• Under 227

Thunder vs Bucks odds

• Spread: Thunder -9.5 | Bucks +9.5
• Moneyline: Thunder -400 | Bucks +320
• Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227

Thunder vs Bucks betting trend to know

Milwaukee is 4-10 SU and ATS vs. Western Conference opponents this season, including 1-5 SU and ATS at home in non-conference clashes. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Bucks.

How to watch Thunder vs Bucks

Thunder vs Bucks latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

The Governor doesn’t approve of The King.

Lakers owner Jeanie Buss soured on superstar LeBron James, privately complaining about his “outsized ego” and the control that he and his agency, KlutchSports, allegedly have over the storied franchise, sources told ESPN in a bombshell report published Wednesday.

Buss, 64, reportedly believed James lacked accountability, including with his deflection of blame regarding the unsuccessful Russell Westbrook trade prior to the 2021-22 season.

LeBron James speaks on video of him saying "Happy International Women's Day” to Jeanie Buss and Linda Rambis pic.twitter.com/Zi11Zxm7iI

— MrBuckBuck (@MrBuckBuckNBA) September 19, 2025

James is in his eighth and perhaps final season with the Lakers after joining the franchise in a seismic move ahead of the 2018-19 season.

His decision to head West galvanized a proud franchise that had missed the playoffs in five straight seasons before his arrival.

The Lakers missed the playoffs in his first season before winning their 18th championship in 2020 during “The Bubble” campaign.

It’s typical for players, not executives, to receive praise for turning franchises around, but Buss did not like that James was viewed as the “savior,” per ESPN.

Buss reportedly felt that it should have been the team’s executives that received praise for wooing James to the Lakers, rather than the idea he joined them and helped right the ship.

ESPN said team sources have long claimed that James told Lakers’ folks beginning in 2017 that he would be leaving Cleveland to join them in free agency for the 2018-19 season.

The 2021-22 campaign did not help their relationship since that marked Westbrook’s arrival.

While the idea of two of the best players of the 2010s teaming up seemed like it could have potential, the Lakers instead flopped with a 33-49 record that kept them out of the playoffs.

The Lakers reportedly made the trade to placate James, but after it blew up Buss felt the superstar didn’t acknowledge his role in the transaction.

Buss’ views on James dived to the point that she even considered trading him during the 2022 season after failing to give him a contract extension, per ESPN.

She reportedly later felt slighted by James’ response after the franchise drafted his son, Bronny, in the second round of the 2024 NBA Draft in a questionable move.

Folks close to the organization told ESPN that Buss felt LeBron should have been grateful for what the franchise did, which ultimately allowed the duo to become the first father and son to play alongside one another in league history, but the four-time NBA champ did not display that gratitude to her.

Buss’ attitude toward James even led to her feeling she needed to extend him during the 2024 summer simply to avoid the bad public relations that would come if they let him walk.

These details have come to light with James potentially in his last year with the franchise after opting into his $52.6 million contract for this season.

James is averaging 22.5 points across 25 games, with his historic run of 21 straight years being named a starter for the All-Star Game being snapped.

The Lakers are in fifth place in the Western Conference with a 26-16 record.

The ESPN deep dive also highlighted the dysfunction in the Buss family that has engulfed the franchise during its $10 billion sale to billionaire Mark Walter.

How many times does a team need to learn the same lesson before it’s legitimately recitified?

The San Antonio Spurs blew another double-digit lead on Tuesday night in a 111-106 loss to the Houston Rockets. This time, it was a 16-point lead that disappeared halfway through the fourth quarter after a big run from the Rockets. There were no late-game heroics that could save them this time. Houston steamrolled the Spurs for the entirety of the fourth.

The signs are always the same. The offense slows to a halt while the Spurs bleed transition buckets on the other end. Too often, the Spurs exhibit complacency when they hold a big lead. Their ball movement stalls, they get loose with the ball, and they make defensive mistakes in transition and the half-court. The Spurs went scoreless for the first four and a half minutes of the fourth while Houston cut the lead to 1. During that stretch, San Antonio didn’t attempt a two-point shot. They finished the final frame, only scoring 14 points. They looked completely shaken while the Rockets ratcheted up the defensive pressure and overall intensity.

The funny part is that Tuesday’s collapse wasn’t even their worst of the season. They’ve blown bigger leads to worse teams in more embarrassing fashion. But this one was against a rival, so it may sting the team a little bit more. Maybe it’ll be the wake-up call they need to stop blowing leads.

We’ve learned that no lead is safe in the modern NBA. That’s especially true in the playoffs when teams have no reason to take their foot off the gas. This problem isn’t going away without a mindset shift from the players or a tactical change from the coaching staff. If San Antonio wants to contend in the postseason, they have to nip this habit in the bud.

Takeaways

• Straightening basketball rims is hard! It took the Rockets’ staff nearly 20 minutes to straighten a rim that the Spurs bent in pre-game warmups. They even had to look at it again in the fourth quarter. Blame the cold shooting in the second half on that, I guess?
• San Antonio went from red hot in the first half to ice cold in the second. You could attribute that to several factors. One, the second night of a back-to-back means dead legs, especially late in the game. Two, the Rockets started to close out aggressively on Julian Champagnie, who had been hitting everything in the first half. Three, the quality of looks was worse in the second half. San Antonio stopped generating good offensive looks for the most part. Credit the Rockets’ defense for getting much better in crunch time, but the Spurs didn’t help matters by settling for contested looks.
• San Antonio wasted a Champagnie heater. He had 27 points on 8-16 shooting from the three-point line. When he’s on fire, it feels like the Spurs are impossible to guard. It’s no coincidence that the game shifted the other way when the Rockets smothered him.
• Victor Wembanyama struggled on both ends against Houston. He settled for contested, fadeaway jumpers far too often, leading to an inefficient 14 points on 5-21 shooting. Defensively, he was out of position and fell for foul-baiting, as Houston outscored San Antonio 52-46 in the paint. Wemby registered no blocks and recorded 4 fouls.
• Dylan Harper and Luke Kornet were great off the bench. Harper had 8 points, 5 assists, and 1 turnover, with many of his passes finding Kornet for easy baskets. Kornet was awesome defensively, picking up 2 blocks to go along with his 8 points and 6 rebounds.
• The Spurs offense continues to look at its best when it’s playing off a pick-and-roll initiated by either Harper or De’Aaron Fox, or running off-ball screens for Wembanyama and its shooters to get good looks. Yet in the fourth quarter, they seem to rely on high-post isolation plays that lead nowhere. The offensive playbook clearly needs some adjusting, especially late in the game. Finding some go-to plays and counters off of them should be a priority for the team down the stretch this season.
• Reed Sheppard would have been an amazing Spur had he fallen to the fourth pick in the 2024 NBA draft. Of course, Spurs fans should be happy with Stephon Castle, who nearly had a triple-double with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists on Tuesday. However, Sheppard’s combination of shooting, defensive instincts, fast hands, and athletic ability for his size is going to make him a tough guard to play against for years to come. Sheppard completely took over the game in the fourth quarter on his way to 21 points off the bench.

After getting hammered in the first two of a five-game road set, it doesn’t get easier for the Indiana Pacers, who square off with the Boston Celtics at TD Garden tonight.

My Pacers vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks don't expect Indiana to keep up its end of the scoring bargain, ultimately dragging down the total, on Wednesday, January 21.

Pacers vs Celtics prediction

Pacers vs Celtics best bet: Under 227.5 (-110)

On Saturday, the Indiana Pacers put up their fewest points of the campaign in a 121-78 thrashing at the hands of the Pistons.

They followed that up by scoring just 104 points in a loss to the 76ers, turning it over a whopping 24 times.

Over their last five games, Indiana has scored 104 points or less four times – well below their 110.1 points per game average on the year, which ranks 29th, better than only Brooklyn.

Amazingly, one of those games was a win against these same Boston Celtics, who have lost three of five, with the C’s putting up just 98 points per game in those losses.

Still, in what was supposed to be a regroup year, Boston sits second in the East, powered by All-Star Jaylen Brown.

However, Brown did find his way onto the injury report with a hamstring injury, though he is listed as probable for Wednesday. The one loss to Indy was with Brown out of the lineup.

Indiana can’t score, and Boston owns the second-best scoring defense in the league, and third-best field goal shooting defense.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Under has hit in two of three meetings this season. Indiana has cashed the Under in six of its last seven, and the beat (and beatings) should go on in Beantown.

Pacers vs Celtics same-game parlay

Brown was just named an All-Star starter for the first time in his career on Monday, and Indy is a good opponent to showcase his wares. He’s topped 30 points in both meetings with the Pacers, clearing this total once and falling short by a free throw the other.

And perhaps the books haven’t been following Aaron Nesmith too closely, setting his 3-point make line at 2.5. He’s gone Under that figure in six straight, and is just 2-for-22 from distance in his last three games.

Pacers vs Celtics SGP

• Under 227.5
• Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 points
• Aaron Nesmith Under 2.5 threes

Our "from downtown" SGP: Derrick White's Block Party

Neemias Queta has been a revelation for Boston’s improbable run this year, leading the team in rebounds at 8.2 per game. But he’s only topped his 8.5-board line in two of the last six, and has gone sub-9 in all three games vs. Indy this year. 

We’ll finish with the Over for the best blocking guard in the business. Derrick White has had multi-block games in eight of his last 11, including a 7-swat effort against Utah.

Pacers vs Celtics SGP

• Under 227.5
• Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 points
• Aaron Nesmith Under 2.5 threes
• Neemias Queta Under 8.5 rebounds
• Derrick White Over 0.5 blocks

Pacers vs Celtics odds

• Spread: Pacers +10.5 (-110) | Celtics -10.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Pacers +400 | Celtics -550
• Over/Under: Over 227 (-110) | Under 227 (-110)

Pacers vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Pacers have lost 15 straight road games vs teams with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Celtics.

How to watch Pacers vs Celtics

Pacers vs Celtics latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Mike Dunleavy may have been a sharpshooter during his 15-year NBA career, but he showed Tuesday night he can still dunk when needed.

The Warriors’ general manager provided a brutal reality check to Jonathan Kuminga, who recently demanded a trade following rocky offseason contract negotiations with the team.

“I think as far as the demand, we’re aware of that. In terms of demands, when you make a demand, there needs to be a demand in the market,” Dunleavy said Tuesday night, one day after the team lost superstar Jimmy Butler for the year with a torn ACL.

“So, we’ll see where that unfolds. But heard, always with these guys, I tell them I’m willing to work with them, want to help people out whether that’s J.K. or any player on our roster. We’re good with, if that’s his wishes, trying to figure that out, but we got to do what’s best for our organization and that’s what we’ll do, as far as it goes with the deadline coming up.”

Mike Dunleavy on the Jonathan Kuminga trade demand: “I’m aware of that. In terms of demands, when you make a demand there needs to be demand.” pic.twitter.com/XOGXj3HFrs

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) January 21, 2026

It’s not often you hear a general manager basically say that nobody wants their player, but it would appear there is mounting frustration on both sides.

The Warriors selected Kuminga with the No. 7 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and it’s been a bumpy journey since.

Kuminga reportedly lost faith in coach Steve Kerr during the 2023-24 season, raising questions about his future with the team.

He then rejected a three-year, $75 million contract to become a free agent faster, with the sides agreeing in September to a two-year, $48.5 million deal.

ESPN reported the second year is essentially a dummy year, allowing Kuminga to hit free agency earlier.

This season has not gone as either party would like, with Kuminga averaging 12.2 points — his lowest since the 2022-23 campaign — and appearing in just 19 of 45 games.

He became trade eligible on Jan. 15 and promptly demanded to be dealt with this year’s trade deadline coming on Feb. 5.

Kuminga missed 16 straight games due to injuries and Kerr not playing him before finally returning Tuesday and scoring 20 points in a 145-127 home loss to Toronto.

Trading Kuminga would have been more straightforward if not for Butler’s injury, but the Warriors likely need him now if they hope to still contend.

“I think we’ll take the next couple weeks to assess this team a little bit more. I felt pretty good with where we’re at heading into (Monday)’s game in terms of what we need to do,” Dunleavy said. “Thought our team was playing really well, heading in the right direction, obviously things have changed. I want to take a couple of weeks here to watch these games, see our team and what we can do better.”

The Charlotte Hornets return from a successful five-game road swing to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Cavs' perimeter defense is struggling, and my Cavaliers vs. Hornets predictions expect the home team to sneak away with a victory. 

Read on for my NBA picks for Wednesday, January 21. 

Cavaliers vs Hornets prediction

Cavaliers vs Hornets best bet: Hornets moneyline (+120)

The Charlotte Hornets will win tonight because they present the most dangerous perimeter matchup for the Cleveland Cavaliers’ biggest defensive flaw: their 30th-ranked 3-point defense. 

Charlotte owns elite offensive efficiency over its last 10 games and is built to exploit that weakness with Kon Knueppel and LaMelo Ball spacing the floor.

While Cleveland likely controls the paint, it can’t match Charlotte’s volume shooting on either end of the floor.

Add in Darius Garland’s absence, and momentum from the Hornets' huge upset over Denver can overwhelm a tired defense that struggles to close out on shooters late.

Cavaliers vs Hornets same-game parlay

As previously mentioned, the Cavaliers' perimeter defense has struggled, and they’ll have their hands full tonight with Ball and Knueppel. 

Ball has averaged 3.7 made threes in his past 10 contests, while Knueppel is at 2.6 over that same stretch. 

Cavaliers vs Hornets SGP

• Hornets moneyline
• LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 threes
• Kon Knueppel Over 2.5 threes

Our "from downtown" SGP: What's the Buzz?

Hornets forward Moussa Diabate has become a willing passer out of the double-team and has dished at least two assists in seven of his previous 10 games.

Cavs guard Jaylon Tyson is seeing 30+ minutes with Garland on the shelf and has scored 16+ points in six straight games with at least 30 minutes. 

Cavaliers vs Hornets SGP

• Hornets moneyline
• LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 threes
• Kon Knueppel Over 2.5 threes
• Moussa Diabate Over 1.5 assists
• Jaylon Tyson Over 15.5 points

Cavaliers vs Hornets odds

• Spread: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110) | Hornets +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Cavaliers -140 | Hornets +120
• Over/Under: Over 236.5 (-110) | Under 236.5 (-110)

Cavaliers vs Hornets betting trend to know

The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (-30.55 Units / -20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Hornets.

How to watch Cavaliers vs Hornets

Cavaliers vs Hornets latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing their third game of the season against the Charlotte Hornets. They are 1-1 in their season series so far. Let’s take a look at what we should keep our eyes on tonight.

3PT Shooting

Last season, the Cavs were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the NBA. I’d argue that high-volume shooting and crisp ball movement were their identity. Now? Not so much.

Cleveland has gradually gone away from the three-point line after leading the league in attempts by a wide margin to start the season. The Cavs are now third in three-point attempts per game this season and have fallen to 13th over their last 15 games.

This is largely because the team has lost much of its three-point talent. Darius Garland, Sam Merrill and Max Strus haven’t been available. Ty Jerome, Caris LeVert, and Georges Niang are no longer on the roster. It’s hard to replicate last season when it simply isn’t the same roster.

That said, I’d like to see the Cavs re-establish themselves as a three-point shooting team. You don’t abandon the identity that made you a 64-win team last season just because the roster has changed. You stick to a process and figure out how to make it work.

Energy and Effort

I wish this weren’t such a theme this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. We might know the outcome of this game in the opening minutes.

Does it look like the Cavs are playing focused, high-effort basketball? Then they’ll win this game easily. But if we get to the second quarter and the team is disorganized, then get ready for a long night.

To their credit, Cleveland has been much more locked in than before. They’ve begun to turn their season around recently, even if a 32-point loss to the Thunder might make you feel otherwise. I have a reasonable amount of faith that the Cavs will approach this game with the appropriate energy.

Evan Mobley’s Usage

I’m going to make this last one simple. Evan Mobley, we need you to score 20+ points tonight. Or at least try to.

The Cavs have lacked offensive firepower this season. And, without Garland again in this matchup, they don’t have many options to turn to. There’s no reason why Mobley shouldn’t be thrust back into the spotlight and expected to carry them with his scoring.

Evan Mobley's FGAs have steadily dropped each month this season

OCT: 14.8 FGAs per game
NOV: 13.5 FGAs per game
DEC: 12.8 FGAs per game
JAN: 12.0 FGAs per game

— Tony Pesta (@Tony_Pesta) January 20, 2026

Cleveland experimented with Mobley’s usage earlier in the season but quickly pulled the plug. That’s not good enough. This team doesn’t reach its ceiling if they don’t push Mobley out of his comfort zone. It’s a two-way street, of course. But an aggressive scoring game from Mobley is long overdue at this point.

The Dallas Mavericks’ rookie star and number one overall pick Cooper Flagg just played the 41^st game of his young career on Monday against the New York Knicks. His inaugural season has been a little interesting. Head coach Jason Kidd experimented with Flagg at point guard to open the season, a tough situation for any young player. The Mavericks’ odd lineups made it even tougher for the first year forward.

Kidd eventually pivoted away from that experiment and put Flagg at the forward spot, and things improved drastically. Flagg won Western Conference rookie of the month in both November and December, and looks to be in a tight race with Kon Knueppel for Rookie of the Year.

With half of his first season in the books, I wanted to look back at the last ten years of number one overall picks and see how Flagg compares. I compiled each number one pick’s basic counting stats—field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and 3-pointers made. Slash stats are points/rebounds/assists per game. All stats are through a player’s first 41 games of their career, regardless of whether those first 41 games came in their rookie year or in later seasons.

2025: Cooper Flagg

48% FG, 29% 3P, 18.8/6.3/4.1, 1.3 steals, .8 blocks

Totals: 770 points, 257 rebounds, 170 assists, 52 steals, 32 blocks, 4o 3PM

Flagg didn’t land into the perfect situation. The Mavericks are still reeling from the Luka Doncic trade, left in an odd purgatory. The roster is built poorly, expensive, yet far from being a contender for much of anything besides the play-in tournament. Worse still, the best player on that awkwardly fit roster, Anthony Davis, is consistently injured. Yet the Mavericks haven’t made any moves toward rebuilding the team around Flagg.

Head coach Jason Kidd went full mad scientist and experimented with Flagg at point guard early in the season. With Davis in and out of the lineup, there’s been no consistent rotation. Trade rumors and the detritus from the Doncic trade still linger over the franchise.

Flagg’s first 41 games in the NBA haven’t been ideal. But he’s put up numbers just as good or better than several of the number one overall picks listed below.

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns

52% FG, 33% 3P, 15.6/9.5/1.2, .6 steals, 1.7 blocks

Totals: 638 points, 391 rebounds, 50 assists, 26 steals, 69 blocks, 11 3PM

Towns was a good scorer the first half of his rookie season, but really stood out on defense. He’s one of the better rebounders on this list, and is second only to Victor Wembanyama in blocks.

Flagg edges Towns in scoring and is a better playmaker early on, and has better on ball defense. He’s also a much better shooter (40 3pm through 41 games compared to Towns’ 11) than the self-proclaimed “best shooting big man in NBA history.”

2016: Ben Simmons

51% FG, 0% 3P, 16.6/8/7.2, 1.9 steals, .9 blocks

Totals: 679 points, 328 rebounds, 296 assists, 77 steals, 38 blocks, 0 3PM

Simmons’ career has derailed to a point where he is now a professional competitive fisherman (no really, he is), so it’s easy to forget what a stat-stuffing phenom he was early on. Simmons did a little of everything on the basketball court, except shoot 3’s.

The Sixers had a more coherent vision for their team when Simmons was drafted than the Mavericks currently do with Flagg on board. Simmons also missed his first season in the league, giving him a full calendar year of development that Flagg hasn’t had.

2017: Markelle Fultz

43% FG, 23% 3P, 8.2/3.1/3.4, 1 steal, .2 blocks

Totals: 337 points, 129 rebounds, 138 assists, 39 steals, 9 blocks, 8 3PM

Fultz didn’t get to his 41st career game until his third season in the league. Even with the extra time in the NBA to develop, his stats are unremarkable. Due to all his injuries and issues with his jump shot, it’s impressive that Fultz has been able to carve out a career that’s going on eight years in the league. It speaks to his mental toughness, despite whatever went wrong early on his career.

Needless to say, Flagg definitively had a better first half-year than Fultz.

2018: DeAndre Ayton

60% FG, 0% 3P, 16.7/6.8/2.2, .8 steals, .9 blocks

Totals: 686 points, 439 rebounds, 90 assists, 31 steals, 37 blocks, 0 3PM

Ayton was a good scorer the first half of his rookie season, but didn’t do much else. For a big man, his rebounding and block numbers are low. On the other hand, 2.2 assists per game is pretty good for a rookie center. Ayton’s stats through 41 games as a rookie are decent, but considering who was drafted after him (remember Luka Doncic?), you’d probably want more out of your number one pick.

Flagg has been asked to do more than Ayton was in his rookie year, and the play on the court, as well as the stats, shows it.

2019: Zion Williamson

59% FG, 36% 3P, 23.1/6.8/2.2, .8 steals, .4 blocks

Totals: 946 points, 278 rebounds, 89 assists, 33 steals, 18 blocks, 8 3PM

Williamson didn’t get to his 41st game until his second season, but unlike Fultz, he took advantage of that extra development time. He’s the highest scorer on this list, and looked unstoppable with the ball in his hands those first few years. When he was healthy, of course. Williamson didn’t do a lot, else, however, with low numbers in every other category.

It’s a question that can spark some debate—would you rather have an electric scorer like Williamson, or a better all-around player like Flagg?

2020: Anthony Edwards

39% FG, 32% 3P, 16.8/4.2/2.5, 1 steal, .4 blocks

Totals: 689 points, 171 rebounds, 101 assists, 39 steals, 15 blocks, 86 3PM

Flagg has similar numbers to Edwards, which should be encouraging to Mavericks fans. Obviously they have different games, but a half-season of numbers similar to a multi-time all-star and All-NBA player is what you like to see.

2021: Cade Cunningham

40% FG, 33% 3P, 10.4/5.5/5.2, 1.3 steals, .7 blocks

Totals: 648 points, 224 rebounds, 215 assists, 54 steals, 28 blocks, 84 3PM

Cunningham grinded out a messy situation as a rookie and put up some solid stats. His assist numbers are low for a point guard, but remember, the Detroit Pistons had absolutely no one to hit shots at that point. He’s second only to Simmons in steals on this list.

There’s some comparison here to Flagg’s rookie year. The Piston’s poorly built roster and a front office in flux sounds familiar to Mavericks fans. Hopefully things turn around for Dallas and Flagg like they did for Detroit and Cunningham.

2022: Paolo Banchero

44% FG, 32% 3P, 20.8/6.4/3.8 1 steal, .5 blocks

Totals: 852 points, 261 rebounds, 154 assists, 42 steals, 20 blocks, 56 3PM

Banchero showed flashes of greatness early, and as is tradition in Orlando, without any shooting to space the floor for him. That’s tough for a rookie. Banchero took a leap in his sophomore year, making his first all-star game. He’s failed to build on that second-year bump, however, and hasn’t upped his game since.

Banchero’s first 41 games are a pretty good comp for Flagg. Hopefully the Mavericks rookie can level up the same way Banchero did next year.

2023: Victor Wembanyama

47% FG, 30% 3P, 20.6/10.1/3.1 1.1 steals, 3.1 blocks

Totals: 843 points, 415 rebounds, 126 assists, 45 steals, 128 blocks, 61 3PM

Wembanyama is the third leading scorer on this list. When you add in the tremendous amount of rebounds and blocks, along with the surprising number of assists, it’s easy to see why the Spurs’ phenom is considered an alien. If Wembanyama can stay healthy, he’ll be a force in the West for years.

Flagg beats out Wembanyama in assists and 3-pointers, but I give Wemby the edge here. He’s just too dynamic on both sides of the ball in those first 41 games.

2024: Zaccharie Risacher

 41% FG, 30% 3P, 11/3.5/1.2, .8 steals, .5 blocks

Totals: 451 points, 143 rebounds, 49 assists, 34 steals, 21 blocks, 52 3PM

Risacher’s first season was not what you want to see out of a number one overall pick. Only Fultz had worse counting stats, and as mentioned above, Fultz’s first few seasons were a disaster. But Fultz has overcome all his early issues and carved out a decent career in the NBA. Maybe Risacher can do the same.

Flagg easily surpassed Risacher’s production, but as we’ve seen above, every rookie’s situation needs to be taken into context. Risacher can still turn into a good rotation player.

The NBA is officially at the midway point in the season with every team playing at least 41 games so far during the 2025-26 campaign. At this point, we have a pretty good feel for the season while acknowledging the many surprises that can still be in store.

Yes, the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs are legitimate championship contenders who are way ahead of schedule from how they were seen coming into the season. The Eastern Conference remains wide open, and now the Boston Celtics feel like a legitimate contender for an NBA Finals spot if Jayson Tatum can return from his torn Achilles. The West is still led by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they don’t feel quite as overpowering now as they did during the first 25 games of the season.

With the Feb. 5 trade deadline and the 2026 NBA All-Star Game both approaching, here’s an updated ranking of every team in the league by their championship chances right now.

The Tankers

30. New Orleans Pelicans

29. Indiana Pacers

28. Brooklyn Nets

27. Washington Wizards

26. Sacramento Kings

25. Utah Jazz

24. Dallas Mavericks

23. Charlotte Hornets

The top of the 2026 NBA Draft is absolutely loaded, with Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and A.J. Dybantsa representing one of the strongest top-3s in recent memory. It was always inevitable that a trio this talented would cause mass tanking psychosis eventually this season, and that appears to be happening already. Some caveats do apply: the Pelicans aren’t tanking for anything after trading their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to Atlanta for Derik Queen — they’re just really bad. The Mavericks are still hovering around play-in range, but Anthony Davis’ hand injury means they’re probably better off tanking ASAP to maximize the chances of the only first-round pick they control until 2031. The Washington Wizards signaled they’re ready to stop tanking with their trade for Trae Young … after this season at least, as he’s still recovering from various lower body injuries. The Pacers are set up to execute the perfect gap year as Tyrese Haliburton recovers from a torn Achilles.

With the exception of the Kings who need a full teardown and have to deal with a loaded Western Conference, the rest of the teams in this tier feel like they could be in the playoff mix next season with some lottery luck. Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson are franchise cornerstone level prospects to me, and while I have been consistent in ranking Dybantsa third, he could also quickly emerge as an All-Star in the right environment. The winners of this draft lottery will suddenly be gifted a way out of jail. The future of the league will change based on how the ping pong balls bounce, and all of the teams in this tier have at least given themselves a chance to luck into a young star.

Fighting for the play-in tournament

22 Atlanta Hawks

21. Milwaukee Bucks

20. Chicago Bulls

19. Memphis Grizzlies

18. Golden State Warriors

17. Los Angeles Clippers

16. Portland Trail Blazers

15. Miami Heat

This is the worst tier to be in: no shot at doing anything of substance in the playoffs while also having very low odds to cash in lottery luck … aside from the Hawks, who own the Pelicans’ draft pick this year. It feels like almost all of these teams are dealing with some sort of crisis: the Bucks are hopelessly trying to build a contender around Giannis without any assets, the Warriors now have no hope to go on a run after Jimmy Butler’s torn ACL, the Grizzlies are stuck in Ja Morant trade rumor limbo, and the Bulls are in the exact same position every year with no real hope of ever getting better.

The Clippers are surging over the last month, and feel like the one team in this tier could maybe win a playoff series this year. The Blazers also have some good vibes this year with Deni Avdija’s breakout and a solid young core around him led by second-year big man Donovan Clingan. Miami just feels like it’s always waiting to pounce on the next available superstar, but there have been some wasted seasons along the way while they wait. I’ll give credit to the teams in this tier for not wanting to lose on purpose, but at a certain point, the NBA is all about superstars, and if you don’t have one, you might as well try to maximize your chances at landing a future one in the draft.

Solid playoff teams without real title equity

14. Philadelphia 76ers

13. Cleveland Cavaliers

12. Toronto Raptors

11. Orlando Magic

10. Phoenix Suns

9. Los Angeles Lakers

These teams could give their fans a thrill or two in the playoffs, but it’s hard to see them winning four straight series to claim the championship. It’s a tier with an equal mix of surprises and disappointments: the Cavs were supposed to be a legit title contender but haven’t looked the part all year, the Suns were supposed to be at the bottom of the West before morphing into the season’s most pleasant surprise, the Sixers’ youth movement has carried the team as Joel Embiid and Paul George have battled injuries, and the Lakers are just plain confusing with an encouraging record but a negative point-differential. I find Orlando — my preseason Eastern Conference champion pick! — to be the most frustrating team on this list. Paolo Banchero has been up-and-down and the team is once again better with him off the floor. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs should be ascendent two-way players but injuries keep slowing their momentum. Anthony Black is having a legit breakout year and gave us maybe the season’s best dunk, but the Magic are ultimately still a middling East playoff team rather than a real contender.

I still like the Lakers to have the most long-term hope out of this group, strictly because they have the best player in Luka Doncic. It just feels like there’s so much more work that needs to be done to fully optimize the roster for Luka’s talents (and deficiencies) that they’re a year away, at least. I also want to shout-out Raptors rookie Collin Murray-Boyles in this section, who has looked outstanding lately as a small ball five. Read my big pre-draft feature on Murray-Boyles here.

Puncher’s chance at the championship

8. Boston Celtics

7. Houston Rockets

6. New York Knicks

5. Detroit Pistons

Someone has to win the East, and the conference’s three best teams find themselves in the second tier of the league title race. The Knicks looked like the obvious favorite to reach the NBA Finals after their NBA Cup win, but they’ve folded like a chair ever since they disrespected the Cup by refusing to hang a banner. New York’s two best players are still horrible defensively and that complicates any run through the bracket. The Pistons have been an amazing story and should be built to last as an East contender, but it feels like they’re one move away from a Finals run even in a weak conference. Detroit’s defense is fantastic, but their offense is still outside of the top-10 and could face a whole new set of problems in the playoffs. I think the Pistons need another ball handler and a front court shooter before they’re Finals-bound, but it would be hard to blame them for slow-rolling it with such a young team in a wide open conference. I’m suddenly fascinated by the Celtics’ Finals chances with Jayson Tatum potentially returning. I’ve thought a Tatum return was a terrible idea all season, but at this point it’s clear he’s determined to come back, and the Celtics are way ahead of where they should have been entering this season. If Tatum somehow hits the ground running, Boston probably has the most balance of any East contender.

I would be very tempted to pick the Celtics in a playoff series over both the Pistons and Knicks at this point, but that’s mostly pending how Tatum looks if and when he returns. I had Boston at No. 16 in my preseason rankings, and really thought they would be in the lottery mix in a great draft. There’s no need to tank when you already have a wagon, and the Celtics really might be there. For now, I’ll give the Pistons the slight edge in the East because I trust their offense slightly more than I trust the Knicks’ defense.

True championship contenders

4. Minnesota Timberwolves

3. San Antonio Spurs

2. Denver Nuggets

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

I framed this season as “the Thunder vs. the field” in my initial season power rankings and it still feels that way … only now the field might have the upper hand. OKC started 24-1, but they’ve shown some signs of vulnerability since then, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being unable to keep up his sky-high free throw rate, Jalen Williams’ scoring efficiency plummeting after his wrist injury, and the team-wide three-point shooting dropping off significantly. The Thunder’s biggest challenger has felt like the Nuggets since the summer, and I’m still sticking with it. Nikola Jokic’s injury killed his chances at a fourth MVP, but it did allow the Nuggets to let Jamal Murray show what he can do with more creation reps, and give a bigger role to suddenly surging young wing Peyton Watson. A Thunder-Nuggets playoff rematch would be absolute cinema, but don’t discount San Antonio and Minnesota, either.

The Spurs have beaten OKC three times this season. Victor Wembanyama is a problem without a solution, and not even a top-3 center like Chet Holmgren can slow him down. I’m not sure the Spurs’ young guards are really ready for prime-time yet, and rookie No. 2 pick Dylan Harper has been struggling in particular over the last month. The Timberwolves might feel like a surprising pick for No. 4, but ultimately I feel like they’re a more complete team than the Knicks, Pistons, and Rockets with a better lead superstar. Anthony Edwards keeps taking his game to new levels, and right now it feels like he can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league. The Wolves have been to the conference finals the last two years, and if they can add one more piece at the deadline, this team can go even further. For now, the championship still goes through OKC with Jokic looming as their biggest challenger.

During halftime of Monday night’s Spurs game, Harrison Barnes made a surprise donation to the San Antonio MLK Commission.

His $50,000 contribution was the largest in the fund’s history.

@hbarnes

At halftime on Monday at the MLK Day game, Harrison Barnes surprised the San Antonio MLK Commission with a $50,000 donation to their Scholarship Program – the single largest gift in the fund’s history. @spurs@FrostBankCenterpic.twitter.com/gUsN6Ei2dG

— Jeph Duarte (@JephDuarte) January 20, 2026

Established in 1986, the Commission is a volunteer organization that helps assemble the annual MLK March. They host a variety of community events and programs encouraging awareness, acceptance, and appreciation of the teachings and philosophy of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and the legacy of the Civil Rights Movement.

Barnes spoke briefly about the donation in his postgame presser.

Since joining the San Antonio Spurs, Harrison and Brittany Barnes have made multiple charitable donations. Early in 2025, they donated $250,000 to AlamoPROMISE.

During the holiday season, Barnes went into multiple H-E-B stores and paid patrons grocery bills for some while distributing gift cards to others.

Up I-35 in Austin, Barnes has supported the Play ATX initiative refurbishing basketball courts at community centers.

Barnes was brought into the Spurs offering a veteran and champion presence in the locker room. He continues to make an impact on the floor. What he and his family have done off the court makes a difference in the lives of many in the local community.

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DETROIT — Jaylen Brown was asleep when the news first broke out: for the first time in his 10-year NBA career, he was selected as an All-Star starter.

Monday’s primetime game between the Celtics and the Pistons was hours away, and Brown was taking his usual midday nap. By the time he awoke, his phone was filled with congratulatory texts from family and friends.

“I think that’s who it matters most for — my support group,” Brown said. “I think it means a lot to them to see me celebrated in that light now.”

Asked Jaylen Brown about being named All-Star starter today:

“I woke up from a nap, and then I had some text messages from loved ones and family, but I think that's what it matters most for, like my support group. I think it means a lot to them to see me celebrated in that… pic.twitter.com/VbAihfC5MF

— Noa Dalzell 🏀 (@NoaDalzell) January 20, 2026

Among Eastern Conference players, Brown received the most votes from media members, the 3rd-most from NBA players, and the 5th-most from fans. That gave Brown the fifth-most votes among East players, edging out Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell for the final starter spot.

Next month in Los Angeles, he’ll represent the conference alongside Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, and Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham.

But Brown played down the personal significance of the accolade, noting he’s always felt he’s been this type of player.

“ I’ve always felt like, regardless of what people may think or whatever, that I’ve been one of the better players in this game,” he said. “Just now, I’ve got an opportunity to show it a little more.”

Jaylen Brown was ranked 1st among media, 3rd among players, and 5th among fans. pic.twitter.com/PHa5pyXcVA

— Noa Dalzell 🏀 (@NoaDalzell) January 19, 2026

Brown did not feel like being named an All-Star starter was validating.

“I’m a very confident guy,” Brown said. “I don’t allow other people to tell me what my validation is. I always felt like I was better than a lot of these guys.”

Jaylen Brown has benefited from a much greener light this season

This season, Brown has averaged 29.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists — while shooting 48.7% from the field, 36.3% from three, and 79.1% from the line.

He attributes some of his offensive improvements to having a much greener light than previous seasons of his career — particularly in the midrange, where Brown has been among the NBA’s most effective players.

“I was discouraged from taking midrange shots at different points in my career,” he said last week. “I’ve been literally told not to. Now it’s like ‘Jaylen, you can take whatever shot you want.’ I’m like, ‘sure.’ I’ve been shooting as many mid-ranges as I can get up. At different points in my career, that hasn’t been the case.”

Joe Mazzulla praised Brown for his leadership and improved ability to make reads this season.

“Really happy for him — it started in the offseason, just the way he approached it, the professionalism, the work ethic, the commitment to 1) getting healthy, to 2) coming in and setting the tone for the building and working with each guy separately,” Mazzulla said on Monday.

The Celtics are 26-16, good for the East’s second-best record. They also have the third-best net rating in the NBA.

And, Brown feels like they’re just getting started.

“I’ve enjoyed being with this group, I’ve enjoyed playing with the young guys, helping with their learning curve,” Brown said. “It’s been a joy. I’m looking forward to the next part of the season. We still have some work to do.”

A season for the Hawks that started with so much promise has quickly turned into a nightmare. I wrote last month that the season was close to being flushed down the drain for good if they didn’t improve on three key areas.

They didn’t improve on any of those three key areas.

Let’s list off all of the things that have gone horribly wrong this year:

• Trae Youngentered the season without a contract extension he desired. Then he missed a month and a half of action with a knee injury suffered in the fifth game. And finally, the organization (with help from Young’s agency) decided the time was right to move on.

Regardless of how you felt about Young, it was always going to be an extremely difficult pivot midseason when so many resources over so many years had gone into building around him.

One extra note: the centerpiece of the Young trade to Washington is now public enemy number one to the fanbase after his last second gaff and general ball dominance. So, even the pivot has been fruitless.

• Kristaps Porzingis was confident preseason that his bout with post-viral syndrome/postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) was in the rearview mirror. It was not. Most recently, he’s been out nursing an injury to his Achilles. To date, Porzingis has only played 413 total minutes and 17 games out of a possible 45. The all-in gamble on his health came up bust.

• Jalen Johnson’s growing list of deficiencies on defense have been magnified with the absence of Porzingis. Has the tradeoff between his offensive growth for defensive regression been worth it? That’s at least a valid question to ask for what this team needs.

• As an undersized 5, Onyeka Okongwu had begun to play the 4 part of the time — especially when sharing the floor with Porzingis. The plan was to make him a flexible third big man, splitting his time between both frontcourt positions while coming off the bench to limit his minutes.

Instead, he’s estimated to have played 95% of his minutes at center (per basketball-reference), is posting by far a career-low offensive rebound rate, and has been subject to an atrocious -12 on-off +/- per 100 possessions.

The lineups he’s been tasked to anchor defensively haven’t help and neither has playing the 24th most minutes in the league this year, somehow just fourth (!) on the team. The plus-minus metric to date is a statistical anomaly given his track record in previous seasons, but clearly his level of play has dropped.

• He’s a genuinely impactful defender now, but Zaccharie Risacher didn’t take the step forward offensively all of us had hoped. Not even close, in fact.

• Dyson Daniels, now the team’s starting point guard who has admittedly come on offensively, hasn’t made a three since December 14.

With the exception of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, you can point to every one of the Hawks’ top eight or nine players and argue that their impact has been levels below what was expected of them.

The Hawks get out-physicaled (I don’t care that it’s not a word) on a nightly basis. They can’t rebound. They can’t even defend in transition despite being a shockingly bad offensive rebounding team*.

*Sidenote: often teams prioritize one of those areas over the other, but you really shouldn’t be bad at both. Either send bodies to the glass or get back on defense. The Hawks, worryingly, do neither.

The heavy minutes load on Johnson, Daniels, Okongwu, and Alexander-Walker is clearly showing a major toll. They’ve been blown out at home more times than I can count, including a calamitous 43-point deficit at one point in a 26-point beatdown at the hands of the Boston Celtics last week.

Even the close games aren’t going their way. The team has been dreadful in clutch situations since the start of December.

The Hawks started the season 8-4 in clutch games (any game within 5 points with <5 mins remaining).

They've gone 1-8 since. They're the only team in the NBA with one (or fewer) clutch win since the start of December.

— Wes (@bloghawk) January 20, 2026

Finally, as of Tuesday afternoon, the team is just barely clinging onto 10th in the standings, with the 11th and 12th place Bucks and Hornets respectively vying for that final Play-In Tournament.

From visions of a top-four conference finish to out of the postseason entirely would be a humiliating end to a season of collapses.

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The team is a mess, and any hopes of being the next Indiana Pacers are over.

The team was projected to win 46.5 games (per basketball-reference), and they’re on pace to win a full 10 games fewer than that (roughly 36.5). Yes, the Hawks still have 37 games remaining, the Eastern Conference isn’t exactly a juggernaut, and the schedule gets easier after the All-Star break, but it will be way too little too late.

I do think they’ll make the Play-In Tournament at least and have a puncher’s chance at entering the playoff bracket.

But for what? A sweep at the hands of the Detroit Pistons? Yawn.

So now where do they go? For me, here are the biggest areas to monitor going forward:

Finding a franchise center

The trade deadline is on the near horizon. I have to imagine the decision makers have been working the phones heavy in wake of the wildly disappointing performance of the team.

We’ve heard the Hawks linked to Giannis Antetokounmpo (who is now reportedly off the market), Anthony Davis (likely not happening with him nursing yet another injury), and other bigs who can fill in the huge physicality and rebounding gaps in the team.

This is almost certainly the end of the road for the persistently unavailable free-agent-to-be Kristaps Porzingis. I don’t foresee any team offering him a multi-year contract given his injury and illness recurrences — especially not the Hawks.

And Okongwu’s overburdening was discussed above — I still see him as a quality backup big on a friendly contract but nothing more.

Atlanta needs to find a dependable center who can anchor the defense, clear out space for rebounds, and provide a level a physicality the team needs (let’s just move past the fact that Atlanta had a real opportunity to do so two drafts ago).

Could they use their projected cap space this summer to sign Isaiah Hartenstein, likely the best center in the upcoming free agent market? That’s one thought. Or they could target someone else by trade.

But this, to me, is the most pressing issue given that the Hawks are headed for a ninth straight bottom half of the league finish in defensive rating.

Draft acquisitions

The one thing that has gone right has been the equally ugly collapse of the Milwaukee Bucks in addition to the (somewhat predictable) dreadful performance of the New Orleans Pelicans. More than halfway through the season, the best of both superpick acquired at the draft last year looks even better now than then.

It’s unlikely the Pelicans will finish with the worst record in the NBA given the many tanking teams just ahead of them and their own lack of incentive to tank. But all it takes is a few lucky ping pong bounces to possibly transform this franchise with a premium talent.

With the Cleveland Cavaliers also underperforming relative to preseason expectations, the pick swap they picked up through the De’Andre Hunter trade could land them a first-round pick in the teens.

It’s debatable that the Hawks focused a bit too much on youth over experience this past offseason, but with these two picks in a strong draft, it’s still a very viable avenue to add cheap — and possibly high-end — talent.

Assess whether Snyder is the right person for the job

Here is the elephant in the room.

Let me start by saying coaching in the NBA is an incredibly difficult job, and that so much of the position happens behind closed doors. You need to manage rich and famous NBA player egos, and navigate the politics of communicating with the media, one’s front office, and one’s ownership group.

Also, of course, comes the Xs and Os portion of the job. Implementing your system of basketball tactics and strategies — all that good stuff.

Putting a good product on the floor is clearly the most visible part of it all. And I’m not here to judge head coach Quin Snyder on anything but what the eyes can see.

One can argue this season’s roster isn’t fit to succeed (although bettors and oddsmakers certainly thought so preseason). One can are argue injuries have derailed the initial plan (although that hasn’t stopped the Celtics, Nuggets, and others from overcoming major injuries).

One can no longer argue that Snyder has elevated the individual play of players — as detailed above — or the team writ large.

Wins and losses are inarguable, and when a team’s record underwhelms relative to expectations, the coach tends to get the hook. This is just a universal truth throughout the history of the NBA.

Lloyd Pierce fell fate to that very scenario. Once the goalposts moved from player development to contention, his 14-20 record halfway through the 2020-21 season sealed his fate. Snyder’s 20-25 record to date looks eerily similar to Pierce’s record then and Nate McMillan’s 29-30 record in 2022-23 (although both previous coaches had some level of fallout in the locker room).

Maybe it’s best to wait until the end of the season for the higher ups to assess this situation. And if a different direction is desired, there will likely be a great availability of candidates to replace him in the offseason.

But a real, honest assessment needs to be made before tipping off next season lest we end up in the same place this time next year.

The 2025-26 NBA rookie class is absolutely packed with characters certain to draw intrigue from all corners of the basketball map. Of course, you have your Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, and Kon Knueppel upper-echelon of players who seem poised to one day control the ground they walk upon, but it isn’t challenging or interesting to talk about how excellent Dylan Harper is as a downhill attacker, or how seamless a fit Derik Queen has proved to be in a professional environment. I could harp on about the unexpected 3-point renaissance ushered by Brooklyn’s Egor Demin. I could rave about Cedric Coward and his miraculous journey from basketball limbo to becoming one of the most promising young players in his class.

Those topics have been discussed to death and will continue to be the headlines of their respective memoirs, biopics, documentaries, etc. More studious individuals than I have the patience to dive play-by-play into each of these players’ bodies of work to this point in the year. I’ll leave the in-depth, broad-stroked analysis to those characters.

Here’s what captures my attention: a player whose arrival was preceded by the promise of salvation to an organization in desperate need of a hero. The prize of a team that had gutted itself, tearing its foundation to meager scraps, all in the hopes of acquiring an all-world talent. An individual who carries a tremendous burden of expectation — an expectation both to elevate the ceiling of his team and to ascend to stardom.

The Utah Jazz tanked in 2025. They tanked hard. And after successfully finishing with the fewest wins in the entire association, their great reward arrived via a reverse-order, lottery-finalized draft. That reward was Airious “Ace” Bailey.

Ace has not been the most impressive rookie in his class. He won’t get many votes for Rookie of the Year. He may not even be the go-to guy when Utah is finally prepared to compete for more than just a spot in the playoffs. Ace Bailey is a mystery; one with tremendous promise, but a mystery nonetheless. So, what does Utah have in its bright-eyed rookie forward? Where does he stand among his fellow rookie classmates, and where does his roadmap lead to?

Welcome to the rookie ladder: just as they arrived, each of these newbies has a spot on the totem pole. That order has changed since draft night, and understanding the “why” and the “how” will be critical in projecting future development in the NBA. Keep in mind, of course, this is the rookie landscape through my eyes, meaning it is far from inarguable. I am aware of this fact.

NBA Rookie Ladder, January 2026:

Name, Draft Position, Season Stats:

1. Cooper Flagg (1) – 18.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 4.1 ast
2. Kon Knueppel (4) – 19.0 pts, 3.5 ast, 43.5% 3pt
3. VJ Edgecombe (3) – 15.6 pts, 4.3 ast, 1.5 stl
4. Dylan Harper (2) – 10.6 pts, 3.5 ast, 3.2 reb
5. Derik Queen (12) – 12.6 pts, 7.5 reb, 4.3 ast
6. Egor Demin (8) – 10.4 pts, 3.4 ast, 39.8% 3pt
7. Cedric Coward (11) – 14.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.9 ast
8. Ace Bailey (5) – 10.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 0.5 blk
9. Jeremiah Fears (7) – 13.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.2 ast
10. Maxime Reynaud (42) – 10.1 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.2 ast

In the short term, the Ace Bailey experience has been more akin to a teppanyaki-style pyrotechnics display than an all-you-can-eat buffet. There will be pyrotechnics — fire shooting from his fingertips, jaw-dropping displays of skill, the works — but if it’s a sustainable, reliable, and consistent eating experience you’re after, you’d better push your money into the Flagg, Knueppel, Harper eatery.

Me? I love the idea of a Japanese steakhouse, where the meal’s preparation is on full display for all participants, and watching every step, every flash of spectacle (of which there are many, in Ace’s case), and the evolution of what promises to be an incredible result. Ace Bailey is a work in progress; there were many reasons why he slid in the draft from 2nd to 5th. Likewise, there are many reasons to believe that his final product will be well worth the wait.

With respect to Cody Williams, a player who is finally striding in the right direction after a harrowing rookie campaign, Ace Bailey is a far more complete prospect than the Jazz’s highest selection from the season prior. Much more than just a lengthy frame with athletic tendencies, Bailey entered the NBA with elite athleticism and a pro-level diet of shot selection.

He’s already thrown down more than a few dunks this season, with a degree of difficulty and defiance of the laws of physics that make me question his humanity. Just take a look at this flat-footed yam that turned a pivot point into a launch pad.

This Ace Bailey slam is crazy. The combination of size and athleticism needed to pull this off. pic.twitter.com/YaQZk6SKQA

— NASH (@UtahNash) January 17, 2026

I mean, what on Earth was that?

Earlier in the year, a late-game situation was approached with a nothing-to-lose up-and-under reverse two-handed slam that has me exhausted simply trying to describe it. He is aerobatic, he is graceful.

Ace Bailey are you serious with this dunk??????? pic.twitter.com/OCe6uqNdHn

— CJ Fogler 🫡 (@cjzero) November 11, 2025

His defensive upside projects incredibly favorable as well, with footspeed to match some of the league’s shiftiest ball-handlers, and the length to erase any perceived offensive advantage in a heartbeat.

you come at the rook, you best not miss 😤 pic.twitter.com/C2I6Ee4h4N

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) January 13, 2026

In the midst of a league-wide return of the mid-range shot, Ace Bailey feasts on a supply of turnarounds, fallaways, and pull-ups. Eyes wide, grin flashing, Ace proudly declared that “[If] nobody wants to take [a mid-range], I’ll take it. I love it!” in an interview with Kevin O’Connor (am I allowed to reference O’Connor on a Utah Jazz platform anymore?).

And with a surprising amount of patience and maturity for a player with a one as the first digit of his age, Ace is deliberate, smooth, and skilled at getting his high-release jumper off with minimal interference.

some sweet, saturday 𝓈𝓂𝑜𝑜𝓉𝒽 𝒿𝒶𝓏𝓏 🎷 pic.twitter.com/1uE6yzgyS2

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) January 17, 2026

Don’t be alarmed to see Ace falling below his draft order on the rookie ladder; everything is still moving according to plan. If you feel antsy while awaiting his development, exercise a bit of patience. If the early positives are any indicator, Bailey projects to be a highly dangerous weapon in Will Hardy’s arsenal.

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Calvin Barrett is a writer, editor, and prolific Mario Kart racer located in Tokyo, Japan. He has covered the NBA and College Sports since 2024.

Vibes. They are impossible to quantify, impossible to pin down, but you feel their absence immediately. You feel their presence even faster. Tuesday night had them. The Phoenix Suns, rolling into the City of Brotherly Love for the second game of a back-to-back, walked onto the floor with a pulse. A hum. Something alive.

Why were the vibes humming? Health. Actual, real, honest to basketball health. For the first time all season, everyone was available. No asterisks. No caveats. The full roster. Including Jalen Green, the centerpiece of the Kevin Durant trade, finally upright and ready to roll.

VIBES FROM BOOK & JALEN 😁 pic.twitter.com/zSMnof5DPx

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) January 21, 2026

It did not start pretty. The Suns opened the night 0-of-9 from the field, cold, clunky, searching for rhythm. Philadelphia tried to punch, tried to manufacture runs, tried to tilt the floor. Phoenix bent. Phoenix answered. Every surge met with a response. Every wobble met with composure.

The numbers tell part of the story. 16-of-39 from deep, a clean 41%. 20-of-20 at the line. Then there was the bench. 58-28 in favor of Phoenix. Wave after wave. Energy that did not fade. Meanwhile, the 76ers were grinding through their own second night of a back-to-back, short-handed without Joel Embiid or Paul George, asking too much of too few.

This one mattered. Not for style points. For tone. For trajectory. For vibes. The win locks in a road trip where the floor is now .500, sitting at 3-2 with one left to play. The math works. The vibes agree. Sometimes basketball is less about schemes and more about momentum, belief, and bodies being available at the same time.

On this night, the Suns had all three.

Bright Side Baller Season Standings

Collin is now up to 8 Bright Side Baller’s on the year after a hyper-efficient 22-point performance against the Nets. Who woulda thunk it?

Bright Side Baller Nominees

Game 44 against the 76ers. Here are your nominees:

Devin Booker
27 points (9-of-23, 2-of-5 3PT), 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 6 turnovers, -10 +/-

Grayson Allen
16 points (5-of-11, 4-of-9 3PT), 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 0 turnovers, +11 +/-

Jordan Goodwin
16 points (6-of-9, 2-of-4 3PT), 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 0 turnovers, +9 +/-

Collin Gillespie
12 points (3-of-6, 3-of-6 3PT), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals, 2 turnovers, +7 +/-

Oso Ighodaro
12 points (5-of-7), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 4 turnovers, +10 +/-

Jalen Green
12 points (4-of-11, 2-of-4 3PT), 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 steals, 2 turnovers, +10 +/-

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…and the winner is?

For the Denver Broncos, irrepressible optimism was replaced by exorbitant doubt in a matter of moments.

The Broncos will have to continue their journey through the AFC Championship Game, and potentially beyond, without starting quarterback Bo Nix. It was announced shortly after Denver’s 33-30 AFC divisional-round win over the Buffalo Bills that Nix had broken his ankle on one of the game’s final plays.

The injury means backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will be asked to start at home against the New England Patriots with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Denver entered the postseason as the AFC’s No. 1 seed and owns an 8-1 home record this season. But the sudden change at quarterback has made the Patriots 5.5-point favorites and dramatically shifted the outlook of the Broncos’ season.

It is not the first time across sports that a late-season injury to a key player has significantly altered championship hopes. In some cases, backups stepped in and saved the day.

In Week 14 of the 2017 NFL season, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles came in for injured MVP candidate Carson Wentz and finished the journey through a Super Bowl win over the New England Patriots.

In 1990, Jeff Hostetler took over for New York Giants starting quarterback Phil Simms, who broke his foot in Week 15. Five wins and one precariously wide-right kick from Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood later, Hostetler and the Giants were Super Bowl champions.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t always work out. Here are 10 examples across sports in which a major injury changed a team’s fortune. Let us know in the comments which ones we missed.

Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, 2019 Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors suffered a double whammy in the 2019 NBA Finals. With the Warriors trailing the series 3-1 entering Game 5, Durant tore his Achilles after just 12 minutes of court time. Golden State managed to win the game to stay alive, but then Klay Thompson tore his ACL in Game 6. Without the team’s second- and third-leading scorers that season, the Warriors lost the finals 4-2 to the Toronto Raptors.

By the start of the next season, Durant was with the Brooklyn Nets. Thompson would miss the entire season, and Stephen Curry played only five games after breaking his left hand.

Kenyon Martin, 1999-2000 Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats were 28-2, ranked No. 1, and in Martin had the national player of the year and eventual No. 1 NBA Draft pick by the New Jersey Nets. But the big man broke his fibula in the Conference USA Tournament. UC was dropped to a No. 2 seed, then lost in the second round of the 2000 NCAA Tournament, 69-61, to Tulsa.

Martin had led the conference in scoring (18.9 points per game) and blocks (3.5), while adding 9.7 rebounds. Without Martin, the Bearcats were outrebounded 39-34 in their tournament loss to the Golden Hurricane.

Kyrie Irving, 2015 Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs’ All-Star point guard fractured his kneecap in Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals, the first of four straight finals matchups between the Cavaliers and Warriors.

In the prior series, Kevin Love suffered a severe left shoulder injury against the Boston Celtics that knocked him out of the finals as well. Though LeBron James tried to carry the load alone, the absence of the team’s second- and third-leading scorers and leading rebounder was too much even for James to overcome.

The Warriors went on to win the series in six games, their first of four titles in the Steph Curry-Steve Kerr era.

Tyrese Haliburton, 2025 Indiana Pacers

Haliburton was the Pacers’ best player in the 2025 playoffs, taking Indiana to Game 7 of the NBA Finals against the favored Oklahoma City Thunder.

But he was playing with a strained right calf that he suffered in Game 5, and it proved to be a ticking time bomb. After catching fire and hitting three triples in the first seven minutes of Game 7, his calf gave out on a drive, and he tore his Achilles.

As Haliburton left the court in tears, the Pacers were trailing only 18-16. Oklahoma City went on to win 103-91 to take the series.

Colt McCoy, 2009-10 Texas Longhorns

Texas’ starting quarterback, a first-team All-American, suffered a pinched nerve in his throwing shoulder in the first quarter of the 2010 national championship game against Alabama.

McCoy had finished third in Heisman voting that season, but freshman Garrett Gilbert had to replace him, and Texas lost 37-21 to a Crimson Tide squad led by Heisman winner Mark Ingram.

Juju Watkins, 2025 USC Trojans

USC was a No. 1 seed in the 2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament when Watkins tore her ACL against Mississippi State in the second round. Watkins was fourth in the nation in scoring that season, averaging 23.9 points per game. She won AP player of the year and was named a first-team AP All-American after leading USC to a Big Ten title.

Without her, the Trojans managed to dispatch the Bulldogs 96-59 and advanced to the Elite Eight, where they lost to eventual champion UConn, 78-64.

Jim Rice, 1975 Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox had two leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year in 1975, future Hall of Famer Jim Rice and outfielder Fred Lynn. Lynn took home rookie of the year and AL MVP, the first to win both in the same year, but Rice was stellar that season as well. He hit 22 home runs with a .309 batting average, .350 on-base and .491 slugging percentage.

In late September, Rice broke his hand after being hit by a pitch against the Detroit Tigers. He missed the rest of the season, including the entire postseason. In his absence, the Red Sox made the Fall Classic, but lost to the Cincinnati Reds in an exhilarating seven-game series coined “the series that saved baseball.”

The defeat also furthered the “Curse of the Bambino,” as Boston had remained without a championship since selling Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees following the 1919 season. The World Series could not break the curse until 2004.

Brock Purdy, 2022-23 San Francisco 49ers

Purdy’s improbable rookie season ended at the worst time, with a UCL injury in the first quarter of the 2023 NFC Championship Game against the Eagles, which the 49ers lost 31-7. The Mr. Irrelevant pick, taken last in the 2022 NFL Draft, had fought his way up from the practice squad to take over starting duties that season in Week 13 after Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo suffered major injuries.

Purdy had won seven consecutive games, including the first two rounds of the playoffs, before being forced to exit the NFC Championship Game. Josh Johnson was tabbed to finish the game but suffered a concussion in the third quarter, which, for a brief moment, had running back Christian McCaffrey readying a helmet with a radio before Purdy returned. Purdy was unable to throw, however, and simply had to hand the ball off for the remainder of the game.

Carey Price, 2013-14 Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens goaltender suffered a knee injury when New York Rangers forward Chris Kreider crashed into him in Game 1 of the 2014 Eastern Conference final. Price was out for the rest of the series, and the Canadiens lost the series 4-2.

Price had career bests in games played (59), wins (34), goals-against average (2.32) and save percentage (.927) that season. Without him for much of the series, the Rangers peppered the Montreal net for 23 goals over six games, an average of 3.83 per contest.

Derrick Rose, 2011-12 Chicago Bulls

Chicago’s point guard was on top of the basketball world entering the 2012 NBA playoffs. Chicago was the No. 1 seed, and Rose was one year removed from being the youngest MVP in NBA history.

But he tore his ACL in Game 1 of the first-round series against the eighth-seeded Philadelphia 76ers. Without its MVP, Chicago lost the series 4-2, and Rose’s career never fully recovered. Since then, the Bulls have only been to the playoffs five times and have only won two playoff series.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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