BOSTON, MA - MARCH 6: Jayson Tatum #0 and Head Coach Joe Mazzulla of the Boston Celtics hug during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on March 6, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Boston Celtics sit at 50-25 with 7 games remaining in the regular season. Not too bad for a “Gap year” right Jaylen?
Note this conclusion I wrote in the linked article above:
Unless something very weird and wonderful occurs next season, we won’t be raising Banner #19. But there’s enough interest and intrigue to keep us watching and following this team. At some point next season there will be a stretch where the vision starts coming together and you’ll be able to squint and say, “imagine adding a top-5 player in the NBA to this group.” Because soon enough, that’s gonna happen.
Turns out it was sooner than I ever could have imagined. Perhaps something “weird and wonderful” is occurring before our very eyes. Can’t wait to see how it develops in the playoffs.
Before we get there, however, let’s take a moment or two to reflect on the regular season. What questions do you still have as we finish out the season? Any thoughts on regular season awards? Want to make fun of me for my early season skepticism? I’m open to topics on all things.
Also, if you are the kind of person that’s always looking forward, give us your questions on the playoffs (matchups, rotations, predictions) or even the upcoming offseason (draft, free agency, etc.).
Leave your questions in the comments section below. As always, I’ll give it a few days and try to answer as many questions that I can. I don’t claim to be all-knowing, just a humble blogger that has been doing this for exactly 21 years (as of today – cheers!).
DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 10: Ryan Rollins #13 of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles the ball during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on November 10, 2025 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Dallas Mavericks (24-51) will make a quick trip north to face the Milwaukee Bucks (29-45) for a makeup game that was originally scheduled for January 25. Due to a winter storm that left the Mavericks stranded on the runway for several hours, the game was suspended and eventually moved to March 31.
The matchup will not feature Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who remains out due to a knee injury. Milwaukee will also be without Kevin Porter Jr. (knee), Bobby Portis (wrist), and Thanasis Antetokounmpo (knee). Gary Harris (personal) is listed as questionable. That leaves the spotlight on emerging Bucks star Ryan Rollins and the Mavericks’ own Cooper Flagg. The injury report for the Mavs has Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington listed as questionable (illness), Marvin Bagley (shoulder), and Caleb Martin (heel) as doubtful.
It’s warming up outside, but Dallas and Milwaukee didn’t get the memo, because both are ice cold entering Tuesday’s matchup. The Bucks, who were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday, are 2-8 in their past 10 games. The Mavericks are 3-7 in their past 10 games. Here are three notes to keep in mind ahead of Tuesday night.
The Bucks are low hanging fruit
The vibes in Cream City suck. It’s no secret that the past two seasons have been disastrous for the Mavericks, but the Bucks aren’t far behind. Milwaukee was supposed to be in the East’s elite after snagging Damian Lillard, to pair him with franchise star Giannis Antetokounmpo. But the results were disappointing. Following a 2024 first-round exit to the Pacers, the Bucks entered last season with renewed hope that they could gain some traction with their new star duo and head coach Doc Rivers. Lillard suffered a ruptured Achilles in the first round of the 2025 playoffs and ultimately played his last game as a Buck. He was waived in the 2025 offseason, and Milwaukee owes him $22 million a year for the next five years.
The Antetokounmpo soap opera will enter another offseason, after the Bucks entertained offers up until the trade deadline but ultimately decided to hang onto their star. He has all but demanded a trade, but with Antetokounmpo wanting to compete for a championship and Milwaukee going nowhere fast, it’s likely he’s played his last game in a Bucks uniform.
Entering Tuesday, the Bucks have a plethora of injuries, have lost 14 of 17 games, and are desperately limping to the finish line of the season. They have the NBA’s fifth-worst defense, giving up 119.1 points per 100 possessions. The Mavericks’ schedule the past month has been one of the hardest in the NBA, and Dallas has only lost one game by double digits in the past two weeks – last night against Minnesota. They’re competing. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has seemingly lost its soul from another weary season. If there’s a game for the Mavericks to get another surprising win on the road, this one makes sense.
Should Marvin Bagley III be here next season?
Most of the chatter about the 2018 draft centers around how the Mavericks and Hawks swapped Doncic and Young. It’s often forgotten that Marvin Bagley III was drafted second overall ahead of both. Bagley has had an underwhelming career, but part of that could be the cultures he’s been exposed to. What is your actual ceiling if most of your career has been with the Kings and Wizards? Co-interim GMs Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley were excited about the idea of bringing Bagley to Dallas as part of the Anthony Davis trade, and the results beg the question – should Bagley be in Dallas next season?
This season, Bagley is averaging 10.3 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. With the Mavericks, he’s averaging 10.6 points and 7.1 rebounds. And perhaps most importantly, he’s played in 56 games this season. For Dallas and big men, the best ability is availability, and Bagley is that.
Dallas will be limited in bringing Bagley back next season since they only have his non-bird rights. He’s on a minimum $2.2 million deal this season, but with his production this year, teams could (and probably will) offer him a bigger payday. The most the Mavericks can offer him next season is $3.7 million, unless Dallas decides to pay him part of the mid-level exception. However, splitting the MLE isn’t ideal, as it limits the Mavs in signing other high-caliber role players.
Bagley’s future in Dallas may be uncertain, but we know one thing for sure. He’s on the court and can add high-quality minutes to a big man rotation that’s seen its fair share of injury problems.
Cooper Flagg is finding his shot (again)
In his first five games after returning from a left foot injury, Cooper Flagg shot 27-94 from the floor, 28.7%. He also shot a dismal 3-15 from three, 20%. We’re throwing out last night’s game against the Timberwolves, since it’s more of an exception to the rule. In his eight games since (minus last night), Flagg has shot 71-139 from the floor – 51% and 5-23 from three, 21.7%. The three-point shot needs work, but his polish at the rim has returned, and the jump shot looks smooth. During this last eight-game stretch, Flagg is averaging 23.8 points, 6.8 assists, and 6.0 rebounds per game. On the defensive end, he’s adding 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks per game.
Kon Knueppel may ultimately win Rookie of the Year, as his Hornets are looking for their first playoff berth since 2016. But Flagg’s impact on both ends is what makes him arguably the most complete rookie since LeBron James. And similar to James in his early years, Flagg only has one noticeable weakness – his shot.
The NBA is a shooter’s league. Flagg is good in just about every measurable (and non-measurable) way. But his shot, particularly his three-point shot, needs work. This should be a priority for the 19-year-old this offseason. He’ll figure it out. And once he does, he’ll be truly unstoppable.
How to watch
Milwaukee and Dallas are both trying to get to the end of their respective seasons. With injuries and drama derailing the past two years for each franchise, both have their sights set on the offseason. But to get there, you have to play the games. And while wins have come few and far between for both sides, someone will come away victorious. And at the end of the day, it’s another opportunity for Mavs fans to enjoy watching Cooper Flagg play basketball. He’s one of one.
The Mavs and Bucks tip off at 7PM CT from the Fiserv Forum. You can watch on KFAA Channel 29, Mavs TV, or NBA League Pass. Go Mavs!
DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 11: The Toronto Raptors celebrates during the game against the Detroit Pistons on January 11, 2024 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
After an up-and-down road trip the Raptors returned home to win two straight games in a dominant fashion. Now, they embark for a single away game to face the Detroit Pistons for their third and final contest of the season.
Currently 1-1 in prior matchups, Toronto won the most recent game by double-digits only two weeks ago. They also have a rest advantage, but with both teams missing prominent players due to injury, this could be anyone’s game and ultimately come down to effort.
At this point in the season, most games are “must-win”. Tied with Atlanta but holding the tie-breaker, they continue to try to avoid a play-in game. Only 3.5 games separate them from 10th, so there’s little margin for error here. Detroit has a comfortable 4-game lead in first, but wouldn’t want to give away the lead to Boston either.
Without Quickley, the facilitation game will likely be what the Pistons attack. Detroit is a tough, physical team, who leads the league in steals with 10.5 per game. Protecting the ball and limiting turnovers will also limit extra possessions and scoring opportunities for Detroit. Toronto will have to look to Scottie and Shead for most of the playmaking as both have shown an ability to facilitate for the team.
The Raptors are also going to be limited in scorers potentially missing BI, RJ, and IQ. Hopefully at least one of RJ or BI is available, but in the event that neither is, Scottie will have to have a performance warranted of his All-Star nod tonight. Jak could have another strong performance, and Ja’Kobe has had a great season so far and could chip in to help keep them afloat. Preventing lapses on defence that could give up points that would be difficult to earn back could be the key here.
Another challenge for Toronto will be the lack of bodies on the court. With the lengthy injury report, guys are likely going to see more minutes than they’re accustomed to. Pace and transition play, both things that require tremendous effort and energy are going to be a challenge when doing it for that long. This is great conditioning for the playoffs, especially playing fatigued in the fourth quarter and needing to execute effectively. This execution has been another struggle for them this season, one that needs to be worked out before the playoffs.
LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 30: Justin Champagnie #9 of the Washington Wizards drives to the basket during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on March 30, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Wizards final West coast trip of the 2025-26 season ended about the way you’d expect — with a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. The final margin was only 19. The game itself didn’t feel that close, which is pretty normal for the Wizards this season.
Both the Wizards and Lakers shot poorly from three-point range — Washington, a mind-numbing 20.0%; the Lakers a merely bad 29.2%. The Lakers won on the boards (+15 rebound advantage) and by making twos at a much better clip. LA converted 67.3% of their shots inside the arc, and Washington just 58.6%.
LeBron James put on a pick-and-roll masterclass and notched a triple-double to help the Lakers beat Washington. | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Lakers also won from the free throw line. They earned twice as many trips to the free throw line and outscored Washington 25-12 on foul shots.
The preceding should not be read as complaining about the refs. The Lakers drove frequently, and the Wizards are a group that struggles to defend without fouling. Which is to say, Washington gets beat at the point of attack and then does a lot of reaching and grabbing and swiping, which often draws whistles. They’re also antsy, which in this case is a euphemism for man do they bite on ball fakes a lot.
To be honest, in a lot of ways it felt like the Lakers had some mercy (or perhaps a different agenda) on the offensive end last night. Washington was utterly incapable of doing anything to slow LeBron James and Austin Reaves pick-and-roll actions. In fact, they had a difficult time handling James setting ball screens for anyone.
As an aside, what James is doing this season is impressive. He’s spent his entire life with the ball in his hands. He’s been the guy others set screens to get loose. Now in his 23rd season, he’s setting ball screens (something he rarely did in his previous 22 years in the NBA) and playing as a third option when Luka Doncic is on the floor.
As for the Wizards, Justin Champagnie made shots. There’s a cranky old man vibe to his game, which seems to morph into bemusement when things get physical. He also tends to play hard, and he has a kind of sneaky Jeff Green-esque athleticism. It seems like he’s just kinda gliding along like a normie NBA athlete, and then suddenly he’s throwing down a dunk over a seven-footer or blocking a shot above the box. He was pretty good last night — 18 points on 12 shots.
Tristan Vukcevic notched a decent PPA score, though I did not think he played well. He ended the night with four steals and a block in 20 minutes, which is a lot. His overall defensive effort wasn’t good, in my view.
Jaden Hardy came off the bench to score 11 points on eight shots in 23 minutes. He had several genuinely good defensive possessions against James (the elder one), and grabbed five rebounds. I’m intrigued enough by his shooting and offensive aggressiveness to want to see him in extended action the final seven games. By “extended,” I mean 30+ minutes per night with maybe 2-3 starts mixed in.
Thoughts & Observations
It’s interesting how context can change the value of a player’s performance. Rui Hachimura with the Lakers is basically the same as he was in Washington, though with fewer rebounds, lower usage and higher efficiency. The latter two go together. In Washington, he had to carry a heavier creation load because the team didn’t have anyone else. In Los Angeles, he plays in the space created by Doncic, James, and Reaves and can take mostly open shots. He was always a good shooter (former assistant coaches told me he routinely won the team’s shooting contests in Washington). In LA, he gets easier shots.
Early in the first quarter, Hachimura drove a closeout on Will Riley that was an example of Washington’s defensive challenges. First, Riley was late on the closeout and off balance. Hachimura turned down an open three to drive. Riley recovered enough to run along a step behind but had no impact on the play. Meanwhile, Vukcevic was late to rotate, didn’t get into help position, and then was weak on top of it all. Hachimura ended up with a nearly ayup line finish.
Riley had a lot of trouble contending with Hachimura. He needs to spend a lot of time in the weight room getting stronger this offseason.
Vukcevic gave a Kornet contest on a three-point attempt in the first quarter. Reaves missed.
I didn’t think that I would ever write this sentence, but…On one possession, the Wizards forgot to guard LeBron James. Seriously, at 6:20 in the first quarter, literally no one matched up with arguably the best player in basketball history.
Stat from the Lakers broadcast: Doncic this season is the first player in Lakers franchise history to accumulate 2,000+ points, 500+ assists, and 100+ steals in the same season.
Another tidbit: Last night, James tied Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for all-time wins as a player, including playoffs. The LA victory was 1,228th time James has been on the winning team. Tim Duncan is third at 1,158, followed by Robert Parish at 1,121, and Karl Malone at 1,050.
It’s a shame Anthony Gill isn’t 10-12 years younger. With a steady diet of playing time this season, he seems to be figuring out how he can be successful in the NBA. He’s attacking closeouts, using ball fakes to create openings, and he competes hard on defense and on the boards despite giving up size and strength advantages to most of his matchups.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORS
WIZARDS
LAKERS
LGAVG
eFG%
47.8%
60.1%
54.5%
OREB%
11.4%
24.3%
26.0%
TOV%
9.0%
15.0%
12.7%
FTM/FGA
0.129
0.316
0.207
PACE
100
99.3
ORTG
101
120
115.6
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 21: Jabari Smith Jr. #10 of the Houston Rockets shoots the ball against Mitchell Robinson #23 of the New York Knicks during the second quarter at Madison Square Garden on February 21, 2026 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Tonight, the Knicks (48*-27) visit the Rockets (45-29) at the Toyota Center. New York has clinched a playoff berth, but need to get through a challenging slate in order to keep their third slot—or catch the 50-win Celtics. Houston is one of five over-.500 teams standing between the Knicks and the finish line. The Texans have been solid at home (25-10) and are motivated to win, as they sit in the thick of the Western playoff picture.
The teams last met on February 21 in New York, where the Knicks rallied from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 108-106. Karl-Anthony Towns had 25 points, Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby both added 20, and New York limited their foes to 15 points in the fourth quarter. Kevin Durant scored 30 for the visitors and tweeted about the game from four burner accounts.
The Rockets score 114.4 points per game and allow 110.1, showing a balanced but efficient attack. They rely on interior dominance, athleticism on the wings, and spacing when healthy. Houston rates ninth for offense and eighth for defense.
Alperen Şengün anchors the frontcourt with 20.7 points, nine rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game while shooting efficiently inside. Durant provides elite scoring (around 26 PPG) and spacing as a knockdown shooter. Amen Thompson (17.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG) delivers two-way athleticism. Jabari Smith Jr. (15.6 PPG) adds floor-spacing and versatility up front.
On New York’s injury front, Landry Shamet remains OUT with a right knee contusion. Miles McBride is listed as questionable after crashing into Lu Dort in his first game back from hernia surgery. Nothing new to report for Houston.
Prediction
ESPN gives the Knicks a 57% chance. That’s a safe bet. In their February meeting, the Knicks showed they can hang and make comebacks, but on the road in Houston, execution on both ends will be crucial. For New York to stay competitive, Brunson needs to control the tempo and create advantages, the bigs must battle Sengün on the glass and in the paint, and the defense has to limit Houston’s transition buckets. Should be a competitive affair that is decided late, with another late clampdown by our heroes. Knicks by four.
Game Details
Who: New York Knicks (48*-27) at Houston Rockets (45-29) Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2026 Time: 8 PM ET Place: Toyota Center, Houston, TX TV: NBC Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky
* Should be one more, but the NBA Cup win was forgotten on the tarmac.
The university’s campus store received its first shipment of official Final Four merchandise this week and quickly sold out, according to 13 News Tucson, Arizona. With official gear in short supply, many fans have turned to unauthorized retailers and online stores to find merchandise.
The university is urging fans not to purchase from unlicensed vendors, citing concerns about product quality and the risks of consumer fraud and money laundering.
Cat Hanson, Trademarks and Licensing Program Manager at the University of Arizona, told 13 News that fans can protect themselves by shopping at the campus store or authorized pop-up locations and looking for key authenticity markers on official merchandise. Every official Final Four shirt will feature a hologram sticker, and fans should also verify that spelling and colors are correct.
The top-seeded Wildcats punched their ticket to the Final Four for the first time since 2001 with an impressive 79-64 victory over No. 2-seeded Purdue. Arizona will face No. 1-seeded Michigan on April 4.
According to 13 News, authentic Arizona merchandise can be purchased at the following locations, with the pop-up shop hours being 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. from March 30 to April 9:
Campus Store
Park & Speedway pop-up shop
Park & 6th St pop-up shop
Speedway & Campbell pop-up shop
Maingate pop-up shop
Football Stadium parking lot pop-up shop
Campbell & 6th pop-up shop
Hi Corbett parking lot pop-up shop
How to watch the men's Final Four
This year’s Final Four will be held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. In the first semifinal, No. 3 Illinois takes on No. 2 UConn at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 4, followed by the matchup between No. 1 Arizona and No. 1 Michigan at 8:49 p.m. ET. Both games can be watched on TBS.
Game 1: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn | Saturday, April 4 | 6:09 p.m. | TBS | Sling TV
Game 2: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan | Saturday, April 4 | 8:49 p.m. | TBS | Sling TV
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 30: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat and Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers talk during a free throw in thew fourth quarter of a game at Kaseya Center on March 30, 2026 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Sixers sit at 41-34 with 7 games left on the schedule, which coincidentally puts them smack in the middle of one of the most chaotic playoff races the Eastern Conference has seen in years.
These standings are shifting every single night, and honestly, keeping up with every tiebreaker, box score and late-game collapse feels like a part-time job nobody applied for. So let’s cut through the noise. Where are the Sixers right now, who’s standing in their way, and what does the playoff picture actually look like as we head down the stretch?
To start, let’s get a clear picture of the standings. We’ll focus on the 5 through 10 range, since that’s exactly where the Sixers are sitting and where they’ll likely finish.
Toronto Raptors 42-32
Atlanta Hawks 43-33
(play-in)
Philadelphia 76ers 41-34
Orlando Magic 39-35
Miami Heat 40-36
Charlotte Hornets 39-36
As things stand, the Sixers are on the outside looking in for a guaranteed playoff seed. That said, there’s still a real chance they can climb up — a loss or two from the right team can completely flip the playoff and play-in picture overnight. So let’s go team by team, break down the tiebreakers, and figure out the likelihood of the Sixers catching up to, or staying ahead of, each one.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are the current leaders of this group and have been playing some of their best basketball lately, most recently dismantling the Orlando Magic while holding their grip on the 5 seed. As of this writing, Toronto sits 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and owns the 10th easiest remaining schedule, with matchups against the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Heat (twice), Nets, Kings and Grizzlies.
The season series ended in a 2-2 tie, so the tiebreaker defaults to division record. The Sixers are 9-7 in the Atlantic while the Raptors are a rough 4-10, meaning Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker if the two teams finish level. Worth noting, two of Toronto’s three “easy” remaining games come right away, before a brutal closing stretch of Celtics, Heat twice and Knicks to close out four of their final five.
Catching the Raptors in the short term seems unlikely, but that April 5-10 stretch will go a long way in determining whether Toronto stays out of the play-in altogether. If they slip against one of the tanking opponents early, the margin for error gets razor thin once you factor in the tiebreaker working in Philly’s favor.
Atlanta Hawks
CA-CAWWWWW. The Hawks have been an absolute problem lately, winning 16 of their last 18 to firmly plant themselves at the 6 seed. Unlike Toronto, Atlanta is staring down one of the tougher remaining schedules in this group, ranked 8th hardest, with games against the Knicks, Cavaliers twice, Magic and Heat. Their only breather on paper is a date with the Brooklyn Nets.
Here’s where it gets tricky for the Sixers: Atlanta outright owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, which effectively turns their 1.5 game lead into something closer to a 2.5 game lead in practice. The Sixers wouldn’t just need to match the Hawks, they’d need to pass them.
Atlanta tips off against the Magic tomorrow before getting the Nets on Friday, but from there it’s a gauntlet of playoff-caliber opponents with the Heat sprinkled in for good measure. The tiebreaker makes it hard to envision the Sixers leaping Atlanta, though that schedule could certainly hand the Hawks a few losses down the stretch.
Orlando Magic
The Magic, yet again, have had a turbulent season marked by questionable star play and their best players missing lengthy stretches at a time. It’s a big reason why they find themselves in the 8 seed. Their remaining schedule is slightly tougher than Philadelphia’s, with games against the Pistons, Celtics, Timberwolves, Hawks, Suns, Mavericks, Pelicans and Bulls.
What makes Orlando’s schedule interesting is the structure of it. They alternate two home games, two away, two home and two away to close things out. Of those eight games, five come against playoff teams, two against tanking squads and one against the New Orleans Pelicans, a team that probably should be tanking but simply can’t due to an outgoing unprotected pick.
The good news for Philly is that the Sixers own the tiebreaker over Orlando, winning the season series 2-1. The Magic currently sit a game and a half back, meaning they’d need to not only make up that ground but actually outpace the Sixers’ remaining record to leapfrog them. Unless Orlando wins at least three of those games against legitimate competition, it’s hard to see them pulling it off. Not impossible, but they’d have to earn it.
Miami Heat
Out of every team sitting below the Sixers, the Heat are the ones to watch. Thanks to owning the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, Miami doesn’t need to outplay the Sixers, they just need to match their record. And when you look at what’s left on their schedule, that’s a very realistic ask. Despite sitting 1.5 games back on paper, the tiebreaker makes this feel much closer to a half game lead in reality.
The Heat’s remaining schedule features the Celtics, Raptors twice, Hawks and Wizards twice, which checks in as the 6th easiest remaining slate in the league. Barring the Wizards deciding they’ve had enough disrespect after the whole Bam 83-point situation (did you catch that game? The NBC broadcast mentioned it once or twice, or like 20 times, very low key), you’re looking at maybe two or three losses for Miami at the absolute most.
That tiebreaker is massive. It puts the Heat firmly in control of their own destiny, and if the Sixers drop even one unexpected game, the math shifts in a hurry. Keep a close eye on Miami over the next week or two, and pay especially close attention to those two Raptors games. They’ll have major implications not just for the Heat, but for just about everyone in this conversation.
Charlotte Hornets
The Sixers took care of the Hornets a few nights ago in a game that went down to the wire, and out of every team in this group, Charlotte is the least likely candidate to climb out of the play-in. They sit two games behind Philadelphia with the ninth hardest remaining schedule.
The Hornets will face the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Timberwolves, Suns, Pacers and Nets. Two of those are against tanking teams, with five against playoff-caliber opponents. That said, it’s worth noting that some of the higher seeds like the Celtics or Pistons may start load managing their guys down the stretch to keep them fresh, which could make a game or two more winnable than it looks on paper.
There isn’t a ton to say about the Hornets right now, but don’t sleep on them entirely. Since the calendar flipped they’ve been one of the better teams on both ends of the floor, and they could become a real problem if the Sixers end up in the play-in. Losing the first play-in game and then having to face Charlotte to keep the season alive would not be a fun situation. For now they can stay on the back burner, but depending on how things shake out, the Hornets could end up being a much bigger part of this story than anyone expects.
Where Will the Sixers End Up?
Despite dropping a pretty important game to Miami, the Sixers are still within striking distance of a guaranteed playoff seed. The Heat are right on their heels though, and they might not be the only ones closing in.
Philadelphia’s remaining schedule is fairly middle of the road, with games against the Wizards, Timberwolves, Pistons, Spurs, Rockets, Pacers and Bucks to close out the year. There are some recognizable names on there, but load management from teams like Detroit or San Antonio could make a few of those games more manageable than they look. It’s also worth noting the final two games against the Pacers and Bucks are against tanking squads, which gives the Sixers the luxury of resting guys heading into the postseason if they’ve already locked something up or their playoff fate is sealed.
Tiebreaker-wise, the Sixers are in decent shape across the board. They’ll need to win some tough games to keep the postseason dream alive, but the good news is they now have the reinforcements to do it.
Most projections peg Philadelphia as the most likely 7 seed, which would put them in the play-in on their own home court. But a handful of games involving the teams around them could swing things in a number of directions. Here are the ones worth circling:
4/1 – Hawks @ Magic
4/7 – Heat @ Raptors
4/9 – Heat @ Raptors
4/12 – Hawks @ Heat
Beyond the Sixers’ own results, these four games could end up being the deciding factor in how the whole picture shakes out. It’s an uphill climb, but depending on how the cards fall, Philly could come out of this in a pretty good spot. Time will tell, as things are likely to come down to the literal wire.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - DECEMBER 23: Myles Turner #3 of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles the ball while being guarded by Johnny Furphy #12 of the Indiana Pacers in the fourth quarter at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on December 23, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Dallas Mavericks in a battle of two teams with tanking aspirations. This was the rescheduled game from January 25, after winter storms prevented the Mavericks from flying out of Dallas to Milwaukee.
Where We’re At
The Milwaukee Bucks have all but given up, and so have the fans. There are eight games left of the season, and EVERYONE will be glad when April 13th comes around. I don’t know what else to say. The team isn’t good, players are injured, and coaching malpractice continues.
Dallas has been successful in their stealth tanking this season. Part of that is not having two of their three best players healthy for the majority of the season, and another part is playing in a brutal Western Conference. The Mavs are a team in transition, looking to attain the best draft position possible to build around star rookie Cooper Flagg. The Mavs view defense the same way Doc Rivers views accountability: not important.
Injury Report
The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (neck), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (calf), Kevin Porter Jr (knee), and Bobby Portis (wrist). Gary Harris (personal reasons) is listed as questionable, while Kyle Kuzma and Ryan Rollins are listed as probable.
The Mavericks played last night in Minneapolis, so there will be no official injury report until midday. We do know that Kyrie Irving (knee) and Derek Lively (foot) will not play as they recover from their surgeries.
Player To Watch
Cooper Flagg. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to options, but Flagg is an exciting young player worth watching.
How To Watch
7:00 p.m. CDT on FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin.
Mar 30, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson (3) talks to a fan in the second half against the Chicago Bulls at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images
San Antonio is now 25-2 since February 1st, with a good chunk of those wins being blowouts (or at least blowout-adjacent). This latter outcome has been especially common recently, as the Spurs’ schedule has been laden with hapless teams more interested in collecting ping pong balls than wins. The stereotype is that conditions like this breed complacency, often resulting in a disappointing loss to an underqualified opponent.
I never actually thought that Chicago would win last night’s game, but the first quarter at least raised the specter of this cautionary tale. Outside of some spectacular play by Wemby, the Spurs felt a bit disconnected, inconsistent, and bored (I love puns!) during that period. However, by the start of the second everyone seemed to get on the same page, and San Antonio was off to the races. This game ended up being a pretty vanilla blowout in which the Spurs earned several respectable but unspectacular box score margins. Even so, there were a number of notable highlights:
This was yet another dominant rebounding performance from the Spurs, with TRB and ORB differentials of +20 and +9, respectively. San Antonio has now had at least 20 more rebounds than its opponent in four of the last five games, and amassed a five-game TRB differential of +97. This is the highest 5-game TRB margin that any team has produced in the regular season dating back to the start of 2012-2013. The previous record was held by the Houston Rockets, who achieved a TRB margin of +96 across five games ending on March 17, 2025.
Although not as spectacular as their performance against Milwaukee, the Spurs put together another excellent foul differential in this game, with six fewer fouls than Chicago. On average over the last 13 seasons, this would have translated to a FTA margin of about +11; however, the Bulls’ fouls appear to have been pretty well-timed, as San Antonio only had three more free throw attempts. With both teams having essentially the same FT%, the Spurs’ extra volume translated to a FTM differential of +2.
The Silver and Black finally managed to outscore a team from distance for the first time since their win over the Kings on March 17th, albeit by the narrowest margin possible. As in the Milwaukee game, this happened because the Spurs’ significant edge in 3P% (+11.63 percentage points) was largely negated by the Bulls’ advantage in 3PA (+10).
Even so, the Spurs did manage to pull away using a solid edge in FG% (+4.81 percentage points), which – together with an advantage in FGA (+3) – helped them log six more made baskets than Chicago.
What are Team Graded Box Scores?
Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).
Data Source: The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected from Basketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 29: Miles McBride #2 of the New York Knicks guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the game on March 29, 2026 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The few hours surrounding the Knicks’ Sunday night loss to the Thunder couldn’t have been more of a rollercoaster. We all received word leading up to the game that Deuce McBride, a fan favorite and a pivotal piece of the Knicks’ puzzle, would be returning after missing two months with a sports hernia injury. And as if his return wasn’t enough, we saw McBride lock up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the first half, and remind fans just how impactful his presence alone could be.
But as Knicks fans are painfully aware, things don’t always stay great forever. While the Knicks, thanks in part to McBride’s play, were engaged in a close back-and-forth battle with the Thunder, McBride went down while diving for a loose ball. And Knicks fans’ hearts all skipped a beat collectively. As fans repeatedly refreshed their social media timelines, hoping for even a modicum of good news, they were forced to go to sleep wondering if we had all seen the last of McBride’s 2025-26 season.
Knicks are listing Miles McBride (pelvic/core muscle surgery) as questionable for tomorrow’s game at Houston. McBride returned on Sunday from a two-month absence following the core muscle surgery but appeared to reinjure the area vs OKC. Landry Shamet (knee) remains out
Throughout most of Monday, we received no updates. But, in the early evening, reports started surfacing that McBride was listed as just questionable for tomorrow’s matchup against the Rockets. A questionable listing usually isn’t a reason to celebrate. But, with him being seen grabbing the same area he had surgery on last night, and lip readers speculating that he had said, “I can’t walk”, this can be seen as good, maybe even great news.
Now, the Knicks have been somewhat mischievous with injury reports in the past. It wasn’t too long ago that they were very quiet about updates on Julius Randle and OG Anunoby’s injuries, which ended up missing much more time than initially expected. That could leave fans suspicious of the Knicks and their injury reports. Fans may not be completely out of the woods just yet. But it still seems doubtful that McBride suffered the type of injury that would keep him out for the entirety of the playoffs. Just how long he’ll actually be out remains to be seen, but fans can, and should, be able to exhale a bit.
Lamar Odom became a celebrity as much for his celebrity lifestyle as his NBA achievements. Photograph: Allen Berezovsky/Getty Images
There’s a version of the Lamar Odom story that ends in a Nevada brothel. It’s not hard to imagine the grand finale – the TMZ bulletin relating his fatal drug overdose, followed by emotional tributes to what was lost: a radical basketball prodigy of the New York tradition, a two-time NBA champion with the Kobe Bryant Lakers, a glittering career that spanned coasts and eras before caving under the weight of addiction. A cautionary tale of incandescent fame, with Odom’s celebrity wife Khloé Kardashian cast as a man-eater to eclipse her more notorious older sister, would have been the epilogue cemented in a thousand think pieces.
But by living to tell the tale, Odom has instead become the latest fallen star to prove a core truism of Western mythmaking: heroes who don’t die young are doomed to live long enough to become the villain in their own tale
“There is a way of understanding Lamar where everything in his life is kind of in reaction to death hunting him since he was a kid,” says Ryan Duffy, executive producer of Netflix’s Untold sports docuseries. “Then it catches him, he somehow wiggles out of it and is still here. Shit, I’d be pretty sideways if that was the case for me, too.”
For the latest installment of Untold, The Death & Life of Lamar Odom, Ryan Duffy (who previously chronicled the scandals of Manti Te’o and Johnny Manziel) returns to the director’s chair to revisit the moment in 2015 when Lamar Odom was found unresponsive at a Nevada brothel – a breaking-news jolt that marked the most spectacular sports downfall since Tiger Woods slammed into a fire hydrant. (You’d have to think the Untold team is strongly considering their own deep dive on the golfer in light of recent events.) That was the year Odom topped the Google Trends list for living people, a tidy measure of how fully his saga consumed the public.
Reportedly on a cocaine binge in the days before the brothel incident, Odom suffered kidney failure, multiple heart attacks and 12 strokes. He was placed in a medically induced coma for several days, with doctors initially giving him little chance of survival without significant and lasting brain damage. All the while, his stunning crash-out was framed in the tabloid press as the culmination of a mushrooming substance abuse problem. Odom had nearly wrapped up a three-year probation sentence following a 2013 DUI arrest, and Kardashian was waiting for a judge to sign off on her divorce request. That delay would turn out to be an extraordinarily lucky break for Odom.
Over the course of the documentary’s 90 minutes, Odom steers the conversation with charm and vulnerability. But before dismissing this sports biography as yet another exercise in self-guided legacy shaping, viewers should know that Odom bucks the athlete co-producer trend. Not only does he keep things unflinchingly real, he lets the uncomfortable truths lie without a positive spin. He accepts that he was a bad father, a worse partner.
“I know cocaine isn’t the way to go,” he explains in a wistful aside about his past drug use, “but it’s a high that feels so good, you wish you could capture it and put it in a bottle so you can have it the next day.”
As his daughter, Destiny, points out in the documentary, Odom would sooner move on with his life than spend too long considering his misfortunes and missteps before plotting a fresh course. It quickly becomes clear that this isn’t just a defense mechanism; it’s the survival instinct of a man who couldn’t afford to dwell on losses. His father, a heroin addict, has largely been a background character in Odom’s life, and his mother died of colon cancer when he was 10. His relationship with his high school sweetheart, Liza Morales, another prominent voice in the documentary, fell apart when their six-month-old son died of sudden infant death syndrome in 2006 while Odom was partying with friends.
Odom, now 46, processes these tragedies with deadpan candor, much like Rick James reflecting on his rock’n’roll past in those old Chappelle Show skits – unbowed and unrepentant. He doesn’t make excuses for throwing away what could have been an all-time great NBA career, one that surely would have earned him more credit for helping usher in the current era of positionless basketball. That lack of pretense is a quality hardcore fans have always respected about Odom, who agreed to come off the bench after LA acquired him in a blockbuster trade and went on to become the NBA’s top reserve.
In the documentary, Phil Jackson fondly remembers Odom as a selfless player who saw his teams as family – but then winces at his former player’s attraction to fame (as if Jackson wasn’t dating team owner Jeanie Buss when Odom’s whirlwind romance with Kardashian was in full bloom).
“Getting on that plane and going up to Montana to see him was personally thrilling,” Duffy says of meeting Jackson, the 13-time NBA champion that sportswriters dubbed the Zen Master. “Like, going to see the oracle at the road and have his wisdom bestowed upon me.”
Jackson, who has been out of basketball since his disappointing tenure as New York Knicks president, would have been the major get for this project if Kardashian hadn’t agreed to sit down at the last minute.
“It happened late enough in the doc that I was telling my editor [Freddie DeLaVega]: ‘We can probably plug her in here or there,’” Duffy says. “But after she gave us two hours of her time, I was like: ‘Freddie, I have bad news: we’re starting over.’”
The Kardashian interview is the element that separates Untold’s Odom treatment from the other docs he’s sat for over the years. She pulls back the curtain on their paparazzi romance – how she met Odom while working a $5,000 hosting gig for a party celebrating Ron Artest’s 2009 Lakers signing, how they married a month later, how he took an immediate interest in her family’s budding reality TV empire and pushed for a spin-off featuring just the two of them. She remembers Odom’s drug use and serial philandering quickly snowballing into a monstrous situation that had her searching for him in alleys, paying off hotel maids to keep stories out of the press and even frantically pumping his stomach when he overdosed.
“I felt such a responsibility to cover this up, hold it together and protect him,” she says, viewing herself as more of an enabler of Odom’s addiction in hindsight.
When an intervention in 2013 didn’t work, she filed for divorce, with both parties signing off in July 2015. Three months later, Odom was discovered unconscious at the Love Ranch – a legal brothel roughly equidistant between Las Vegas and the Mexican border.
“The drive itself was illuminating,” says Duffy, recalling how initial reporting of Odom’s medical emergency placed him in Las Vegas. “It was all double-wide trailers and fucking meth labs. Like, you are in dire straits if you find yourself out here. It gave me a better appreciation for the depths he had fallen to.”
Kardashian claims Odom’s estranged father would have pulled the plug on his son if she hadn’t intervened at the hospital – which still recognized her as his next of kin with their divorce unfinalized – and bought him off Odom Sr with $100, a pair of Nikes and a night’s hotel stay. She also suggests their marriage might have survived if Odom hadn’t continued to use drugs behind her back – the final straw coming when she caught him smoking crack months after being discharged.
Odom neither pushes back against Kardashian’s version of events nor shows much appreciation for the considerable efforts she made to save his life and reputation, sealing a twist in the tale. She transitions from reality-TV foil to hero, while he flips from sympathetic protagonist to unmistakable villain. Or at least that’s before considering the grip of addiction and its role in this story. Odom jokes about partying in Vegas and “marrying somebody” as the documentary wraps. Earlier this year, he voluntarily entered a 30-day rehab program for marijuana use after pleading not guilty to a DUI. (His case is set for a July trial.) Odom still seems to think like a user. But that’s not to suggest he’s irredeemable.
Untold shows him attempting to repair his relationship with his adult children. His son Lamar Jr shares a heart-rending story about Odom jilting them for the Lakers’ 2009 championship parade while Destiny recalls a post-emergency tour that took Odom everywhere – most notably Bryant’s farewell game – but never to therapy. Odom often harkens back to a recurring dream in which he sees Bryant again and is told “the afterlife is not what people make it out to be.” Worryingly, Odom appears curious enough to test his late teammate’s “message” – again. “He just acted like the coma thing never really happened,” Destiny says.
In an alternate telling, Odom’s survival story would be a profile in courage and clarity. The version he offers through Untold – raw, rough and bracingly real – delivers a far more authentic lesson. “When you make these docs, especially with athletes who are pretty well media trained and have been in the spotlight, they understand documentaries,” Duffy says. “We’ve been in this sports documentary boom for the better part of a decade now, so they understand them and usually work really hard – whether it’s true or not – to tie things in a tidy bow: ‘Yeah, look, I did have these struggles, but they’re gone. I overcame them. Here I am, the fully realized version of me that you always wanted.’ Lamar, to his credit, didn’t do that. As much as I’m sure that is a tax on the people around him, I appreciated the sheer honesty and vulnerability of that.
“The guy’s perspective is: ‘I survived this night in Nevada – where, by all accounts, I should be dead. There was divine intervention involved in my survival. And that means I need to do something. I need to find some meaning.’ But he doesn’t know what the fuck that is. Where he is now is in a place of just searching. And he’s comfortable with that uncertainty.”
It’s time for another LeBron James temperature check. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
He has embraced being the Lakers’ third option. The Big Three has figured things out. And the team is a contender.
It begs a question: If he returns for another season, is he more likely to play for the Lakers now?
While no one knows the answer except James, one thing is obvious. There’s a different feeling in the locker room now than there has been all season.
James went from saying “we’re not” a championship team after falling to the Thunder in January, to calling the Lakers “very resilient ” after a win over the Nets on Friday.
He went from acknowledging during All-Star break that one of the biggest questions for the team was “how much chemistry we can build,” to spending his off-days golfing alongside his teammates on a recent road trip during which the Lakers went 5-1.
Austin Reaves and LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers practice their golf swing before the game. NBAE via Getty Images
He went from lamenting that the Big Three hadn’t had enough time together to jell, to embracing being the team’s third option so they could become one of the most formidable offenses in the league.
Now, the Lakers have won 15 of their last 17 games, including going on a recent nine-game winning streak.
All of the sudden, a return to Los Angeles seems much more likely for James than it did just a short while ago.
Before this month, the Lakers were mired in drama and dysfunction.
James had to answer questions about his relationship with Lakers’ governor Jeanie Buss in January after an ESPN story alleged she had a myriad of frustrations with him and even privately pondered trading him.
The Big Three had only played 11 games together before the All-Star break because of injuries. And after the Lakers improved to 10-2 when Doncic and Reaves played without James, a narrative sprang up that the Lakers were better without the megastar.
James dribbles against Brooklyn Nets forward Ziaire Williams during the first half at LA’s Crypto.com Arena. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
For arguably the greatest player of all-time, whose name sits atop nearly every NBA record, why did he need all of that drama?
It seemed as though his time with the Lakers was coming to an end.
The Lakers had made it obvious that their top priority was building around Doncic. And James just seemingly wasn’t fitting into that equation.
Adding fuel to the rumor mill, James teared up during his return to Cleveland in January while watching a tribute video. If he didn’t retire, it seemed as though there was a real chance he’d want to finish his career where it all began.
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Now James has morphed his game to fit alongside Doncic and Reaves and the Lakers are soaring. After James had a 19-point, 15-rebound and 10-assist performance against the Heat on the second leg of a back-to-back on March 19, James, unprompted, took a dig at everyone who doubted him.
“I mean it sells papers a lot easier and clippings and podcasts if you say ‘LeBron, that their team is better off without him,'” James said. “A lot of people will try to like view it. So, I get it. But they’re absolutely wrong.”
James reacts after a play against the Orlando Magic at Kia Center. Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Over the last nine games, the narrative that the Lakers were better without him has been completely shut down.
He’s looking to pass first and fill in the gaps. He has become perhaps the best role player ever. He has opened up the court for Doncic to have scoring explosions and Reaves to shine. Oh, and the team’s third option just happens to be a four-time MVP who’s in a two-horse race with Michael Jordan for the GOAT title.
Good luck to the rest of the league in the playoffs.
At this stage in James’ career, the things that are important to him are obvious.
James wants a real shot at earning his fifth ring. That’s happening. The Lakers are in third place in the West and have found their stride with the playoffs around the corner.
And James wants to enjoy his time alongside his son, Bronny.
That’s happening, too.
James and Bronny James take on the Indiana Pacers, March 25 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana. NBAE via Getty Images
Last week, Bronny further silenced his detractors by playing meaningful minutes in two games. James and Bronny even made history with the first father-son assist in NBA history.
James is now enjoying himself. And that’s very important.
Recently, James revealed how he wants his NBA career to end.
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - MARCH 30: GG Jackson #45 of the Memphis Grizzlies goes to the basket against Royce O'Neale #00 of the Phoenix Suns during the second half at FedExForum on March 30, 2026 in Memphis, Tennessee. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I’m not gonna lie, there was a little bit of anxiety creeping in on Monday night as the Phoenix Suns battled through the first three quarters against the Memphis Grizzlies. Devin Booker was cooking. He was hyper-efficient, dropping 36 points through three quarters without taking a single free throw. Jalen Green looked right there with him, adding 21. Together, they had 57 of the Suns’ 91 points.
Devin Booker scored 36 points tonight without 1 free throw attempt. How many times has SGA scored 30+ without a FTA? Never. pic.twitter.com/bgyIfmMDFx
So yeah, that is where the concern set in. Not about how they were playing, but about how it would be perceived. Because you know how it goes. People check the box score, see the scoring totals, see the narrow lead, and the first reaction becomes that the offense is the problem. Too much isolation, not enough ball movement, not enough guys involved. We have seen that narrative before when both Booker and Green go off and the team still comes up short.
But that was not the story here.
The offense was fine. It was flowing, it was producing, it was doing exactly what it needed to do. The issue was on the other end. Defense, or more specifically, what was happening in the paint.
With Oso Ighodaro at the five, you are going to give some of that up. He brings a lot to the table. Connectivity, playmaking, switching. But rim protection is not his calling card. That is part of the equation, and Memphis knew it. Their plan was simple, and it is one we have seen teams lean into against Phoenix. Beat the initial defender, get downhill, and attack the interior. Over and over again.
Through three quarters, it worked. The Grizzlies had 46 of their 89 points in the paint, living at the rim, forcing rotations, and keeping the game tight despite the offensive output from Booker and Green. That is what kept it close. Not the shot diet, not the scoring distribution. It was the inability to consistently deter what Memphis wanted to do inside.
The fourth quarter saved everyone from that conversation, at least for a moment. The Memphis Grizzlies showed their hand, drifted away from what was working, stopped living in the paint, and the game flipped. At the same time, Collin Gillespie found his stroke, the Phoenix Suns found their rhythm, and suddenly it was a 40–16 quarter that turned a tight game into a 26-point win.
It matters. Win number 42 locks in a winning season. No matter what comes next, another small milestone in a year built on progress.
But it circles back to the original concern. There are times when frustration with the offense is warranted. That is part of the deal. More often than not, though, when things tighten or slip away, it traces back to what is happening inside. Interior defense, rim protection, and the ability to deter those downhill attacks. That is the pressure point.
And as the postseason gets closer, that is where the focus will be. Because once the games matter a little more, teams will lean into that weakness until you prove you can stop it.
Bright Side Baller Season Standings
Jalen’s efficient night against the Jazz moves him up the standings.
Bright Side Baller Nominees
Game 75 against the Girzzlies. Here are your nominees:
The 36-game sprint of a regular season has officially come to an end. By now, you probably caught wind that the Iowa Wolves have ended their 11-year postseason drought! Huzza!
Let’s review the month of March, and preview what’s to come in this edition of Eyes on Iowa Wolves.
Record: 6-2
Player of the Month: Zyon Pullin (27.7p, 3.3r, 6a, .667/.545/.903)
Recap: Iowa was in prime position for a spot in Winter Showcase tournament spot behind the strong play of their backcourt. Pullin, Tristen Newton, and Jules Bernard, all averaged over 20 points each, spearheading a league-best offense.
Record: 5-6
Player of the Month: Tristen Newton (26.4p, 4.6r, 4.9a, .506/.374/.830)
Recap: Iowa stumbled as they lost previous POTM, Zyon Pullin, to a wrist injury. They missed out on the Winter Showcase playoff tournament, but found their form to end the month thanks to Tristen Newton’s outstanding play.
Timberwolves rookie Joan Beringer also made his debut this month with some impressive performances of his own.
Record: 8-5
Player of the Month: Jules Bernard (26p, 5.5r, 5.9a, .473/.394/.812)
Recap: Iowa lost their best player, Tristen Newton, to the Rockets to start 2026. They course corrected to win 7 of their next 11 games thanks to the outstanding play of Jules Bernard and Alize Johnson.
Rookie Rocco Zikarsky was selected for the G League Next Up game during All-Star Weekend.
Record: 3-4
Player of the Month: Jalen Crutcher (22.1p, 3.7r, 6.7a, .535/.548/.846)
Recap: Alize Johnson departed for China, though Enrique Freeman filled in admirably. It was a tough month, but vets Jalen Crutcher and Jules Bernard helped the Wolves stay alive in the playoff race.
Jules Bernard signed a two-way contract for a few days (pay bump) before being replaced by Zyon Pullin, who won POTW in his first week back from injury.
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March Overview
Overall Month Record: 7-4
Current Regular Season Record: 21-15 Final Standing: 6th in Western Conference
The story of the Iowa Wolves season has been about battling back from adversity.
They started off the season in November strong. They were among the elite teams, overwhelming opponents with their league-best offense. Zyon Pullin was the lightning rod of the team. An avatar of Iowa’s style — Breakneck pace by attacking the paint, and limited, but efficient, three-point shooting. Unfortunately, a wrist injury took him out of the lineup for over two months. Iowa was able to tread water despite various roster changes to until Pullin finally returned late February amidst a skid of four losses in five games to end the month.
It just took a little time for Pullin’s impact to reflect in the win column.
A pair of dominant victories against the Rip City Remix helped keep their playoff dreams alive. Pullin averaged 28 points in those games while scoring on 20 of his 26 field goal attempts, enough to earn the G League Player of the Week honors.
Iowa ran into a buzzsaw that was the South Bay Lakers though. The Lakers were on a double-digit game win streak before dispatching the Wolves twice. Timberwolves rookie Joan Beringer was active and ultra productive for Iowa during a three-game losing streak though, providing some silver lining to his third assignment in the G League.
Speaking of temporary assignments, newly acquired Julian Phillips suited up for a pair of games against the Salt Lake City Stars. The 22-year-old shined, posting a career-high in points at any level of collegiate or professional play. He helped get Iowa back on track as they headed towards their final four games of the season with the playoffs on the line.
They nearly punched their ticket in a set of games against the Texas Legends. Iowa performed a miracle 16-point fourth quarter comeback in the first game, but dramatically lost the second. The Wolves most clutch player of the regular season, Jalen “Clutch” Crutcher, uncharacteristically missed a pair of free throws and a clean step-back three-pointer.
Regardless, they had done enough that a loss by the Santa Cruz Warriors a few days later secured a postseason berth. With nothing but playoff seeding to play for, Pullin and his teammates torched the Oklahoma City Blue by an average of 21 points to end the season.
Their positive momentum will hopefully carry them far into the postseason tournament.
Playoff Preview
In prior G League seasons, only the top six (or less) teams of each conference made the postseason. This season, they’re reintroducing the 16-team playoff bracket. There’s no need for asterisks though, as the Iowa Wolves finished as the sixth seed and will face the third seed Stockton Kings in the first round.
Every playoff series will be a single-elimination format until the Finals, where the format changes to a best-of-three.
Who are the Stockton Kings?
The Stockton Kings, contrary to their NBA affiliate, are no joke.
Sure, Kings owner Vivek Ranadivé named his daughter, a wildlife activist and aspiring pop star with zero professional basketball experience at any level, the Assistant General Manager of the Stockton Kings (She has since stepped down from her role). Yes, it was around that same time where an off-the-court scandal featuring one of the their players was charged with the kidnapping and murder of a woman two years ago (Ranadivé’s daughter may or may not have been involved). And okay, Stockton’s leading scorer is the 28-year-old veteran DaQuan Jeffries, who has played with five different NBA teams across six seasons and is married to the daughter of current unqualified Sacramento Kings Head Coach, Doug Christie.
That said.
On the court, they have been the number one seed in the Western Conference for four of their last five seasons. They’ve made back-to-back G League Finals, and won their first championship a year ago. They are a good basketball team.
Their roster does look considerably different than last season. First and foremost, their Finals MVP and three-time All NBA G League selection Mason Jones is now playing overseas. Their entire starting frontcourt from the playoffs, Skal Labissière, Isaiah Crawford, and Terry Taylor are no longer on the team. In fact, Taylor is now coming off the bench for Iowa (Institutional knowledge?). Of the Kings postseason lineup from their championship run, the only rotation players who are returning are Jon “Temu Alex Caruso” Elmore, and Dexter Dennis.
The Kings two-way players are Patrick Baldwin Jr., Isaiah Stevens, and Daeqwuan Plowden. Due to tanking the laundry list of a injury report, Plowden has been called up to Sacramento and has been playing well over 30 minutes a night for nearly two months. Stockton’s best player has been the aforementioned DaQuan Jeffries recently signed a 10-day contract with Sacramento and hasn’t been available for Stockton either.
The Kings are ninth in offensive rating, and 16th in defensive rating. They’re dead last in pace, where they’ll grind out possessions, moving the ball until they get a good shot as evidenced by their 64.3 assist percentage (Fourth) and 55.6% effective field goal mark (11th). They take the third most amount of threes per game, yet they convert on the second most three-point makes per game. A stark contrast to Iowa’s style of play.
On the other end of the court, they hold their opponents to just 33.2 three-point attempts per game, and 31.9% from distance when they do get shots off. Both of these marks are second-best in the league.
Matchup vs Iowa
The Iowa Wolves and Stockton Kings split their season series 1-1, both occurring in February and in California. The Wolves were led by the hot shooting of Jalen Crutcher and a near triple-double by Alize Johnson in his final game before departing overseas. Despite being without Pullin’s services, Iowa still eked out a five-point win without Pullin.
In the second contest three weeks later, the Kings cruised to an easy triumph courtesy of a 16-0 run that bridged the two halves together. The Wolves never recovered from there, as Stockton was on fire from deep. Three different players scored 25 points or more for the Kings, including bench reserve Antoine Davis, who poured in surprising and season-best seven triples. Across both games, DaQuan Jeffries averaged a ridiculous 34 points in this series, but as mentioned earlier, he may not be available for Stockton on Wednesday as Sacramento has a game against the Raptors.
Here is the tale of the tape:
Iowa
Stockton
OFFRTG
124.1 (5th)
122.7 (9th)
DEFRTG
119.1 (12th)
119.4 (16th)
NETRTG
5.0 (6th)
3.3 (10th)
eFG%
56.3 (7th)
55.6 (11th)
ORB%
30.3 (3rd)
26.1 (23rd)
TOV%
14.0 (17th)
13.6 (12th)
FTr
17.6 (15th)
16.9 (19th)
Pace
97.5 (9th)
93.4 (31st)
AST%
59.6 (17th)
64.3 (4th)
%3P
35.0 (20th)
47.7 (2nd)
By the numbers, Iowa should have a sizeable advantage. They’re the stronger team in terms of offensive and defensive rating. They score better in three of the Four Factors. They hold a ginormous pace advantage. However, Stockton holds a big edge in the ultimate wild card factor: Three-pointers. Nearly half of their field goal attempts are from distance, and for a team that shoots 37.4% from distance, that could be a problem. Another outlier night from perimeter could doom the Wolves as it did a month ago.
Iowa will travel to Stockton to face the Kings on Wednesday, April 1 at 8:30pm CT on Prime Video.
Joan & Julian Assignments
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - MARCH 25: Joan Beringer #19 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on before the game against the Houston Rockets on March 25, 2026 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Joan Beringer Full season stats: 11 GP | 29.5 MP | 14.6 PTS | 10.7 REB | 0.9 AST | 0.5 STL | 2.4 BLK | 1.3 TOV | 2.3 PF 62.7 FG% | 66.7 FT% Glass ceiling comp: Ultimate Giannis Antetokounmpo Boring mezzanine comp: Faster Jarrett Allen Dark basement comp: Taller Bismack Biyombo
Joan looked like prime Dwight Howard in his final four-game assignment with Iowa. He averaged:
20 points
15.3 rebounds
1 assist
1.8 blocks
68.6% field goal percentage
83.3% free throw percentage
Beringer was as dominant as the numbers looked despite having almost no plays called for him. His confidence as a play finisher has skyrocketed. He’s showing a much larger assortment of post moves, and deft touch around the rim. He’s even had a handful of dribble-drive finishes from outside the paint.
It’s likely that the Frenchman may have played his last game in Iowa considering his growth and opportunity moving forward for the Timberwolves.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - FEBRUARY 08: Julian Phillips #4 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on against the LA Clippers in the fourth quarter at Target Center on February 08, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Clippers defeated the Timberwolves 115-96. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Julian Phillips Full season stats: 2 GP | 34.7 MP | 29.0 PTS | 8.5 REB | 1.5 AST | 1.0 STL | 0.5 BLK | 3.0 TOV | 2.0 PF 54.2 FG% | 30.8 3P% | 16.7 FT% Glass ceiling comp: Ideal Jerami Grant Boring mezzanine comp: Young Derrick Jones Jr. Dark basement comp: Smaller Josh Minott
Julian was really aggressive in his two-game stint with Iowa, to say the least. He led Iowa in field goal attempts in both games, averaging 24 shots per game. What was clearly evident was his ability to slither into the lane and use his length, athleticism, and craftiness to score.
He got to the cup at will.
Phillips is a dangerous cutter and transition player as well, with tremendous top-end speed and the ability to play fly above the rim. He was excellent in contest-and-release situations, often taking advantage of careless defenses. Coach Abdelfattah also used Phillips in defensive lineups, as his near seven-foot wingspan caused problems for opponents.
It’s hard to be too critical about his less than ideal shot selection. Often times when non-two-way players are sent on G League assignments, they’re sent with the goal of getting in reps. That said, Phillips does have a considerably long journey ahead of him in terms of his jump shot. He has a bit of a wonky shot release that results in shots either swishing through the cylinder, or not being close at all. The consistency is not there, as was reflected in his one for six mark from the charity stripe.
Two-Way Wolves Update
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 13: RoccoZikarsky of Timberwolves warms up before the NBA game 34 between Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors in San Francisco at Chase Center on March 13, 2026 in San Francisco, California, United States. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images) | Anadolu via Getty Images
Rocco Zikarsky Full season stats: 42 GP | 25.1 MP | 14.8 PTS | 8.9 REB | 0.9 AST | 0.6 STL | 2.5 BLK | 1.9 TOV | 2.2 PF 53.3 FG% | 30.8 3P% | 75.6 FT% Glass ceiling comp: Healthy Kristaps Porziņģis Boring mezzanine comp: Less athletic Jay Huff Dark basement comp: Shorter Tacko Fall
Rocco has really come into his own throughout the G League season. For the first month all season, Zikarsky averaged over 30 minutes per game in March. As a result, we saw him post his best scoring, rebounding and shot blocking marks of any month. Averaging a 19.5 point and 11.8 rebound double-double is amazing, but swatting away a ridiculous 5.2 blocks per game is mind-boggling. The Aussie finished second in the league in total blocks (103). His 8.4% BLK% would’ve been second in the NBA behind Victor Wembanyama.
Unfortunately, his three-point shooting has been anything but reliable. He showed signs of promise at the beginning of the season, but then really tailed off in February. His 31.6% mark from distance in March might not be exciting, but consider the fact that he went zero for 15 in February and you’ll be relieved to know that he even has the ability to score from beyond the arc.
At 19-years-old (20 in July), this isn’t to say Zikarsky can’t keep developing. Jump shooting tend to trend upwards, not downwards, as players get older. He still has upside and that’s all anyone should ask for from a 45th overall pick.
DES MOINES, IA - MARCH 28: Zyon Pullin #5 of the Iowa Wolves looks to pass the ball during the game against the Oklahoma City Blue on March 28, 2026 at Casey's Center in Des Moines, Iowa. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jasey Bradwell/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Zyon Pullin Full season stats: 22 GP | 34.9 MP | 25.3 PTS | 4.2 REB | 6.2 AST | 0.9 STL | 0.2 BLK | 2.2 TOV | 2.3 PF 58.4 FG% | 53.4 3P% | 82.4 FT% Glass ceiling comp: Explosive Ajay Mitchell Boring mezzanine comp: Offensively skewed Tre Jones Dark basement comp: Devin Carter
What more can you say about Zyon that I haven’t already said about him at this point? I’ve been a Pullin truther since November and he’s only gotten better as the season progressed, despite a significant injury. Take a look at his month-by-month splits:
PTS
REB
AST
STL
3PM
3P%
NOV
27.7
3.3
6.0
0.7
1.7
54.5%
DEC (INJURY)
14.8
3.3
5.5
0.5
1.3
41.7%
FEB (RETURN)
26.7
4.0
5.7
0.7
1.7
42.9%
MAR
28.0
5.6
7.0
1.3
2.4
59.4%
With the loss of players like Tristen Newton and Alize Johnson, Pullin has shouldered even more of the workload in the past month. He’s picking up the playmaking hole left by the former, while attacking the glass to makeup for the loss of the latter. Most impressive has been his three-point shooting. Never known as a volume chucker from beyond the arc, Pullin has become an absolute sniper in recent games including a career-high six makes in his second to last game.
As mentioned in the February recap, Zyon isn’t a star on the defensive end of the court, but he has great court awareness and isn’t typically a defender that’s targeted by opponents. It’s clear that Iowa will only go as far as Zyon can pull them.
STOCKTON, CA - FEBRUARY 25: Enrique Freeman #25 of the Iowa Wolves drives to the basket during the game against the Stockton Kings on February 25, 2026 at Adventist Health Arena in Stockton, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jack Arent/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Enrique Freeman Full season stats: 39 GP | 33.2 MP | 16.5 PTS | 8.8 REB | 2.4 AST | 0.8 STL | 0.8 BLK | 1.8 TOV | 2.8 PF 54.6 FG% | 32.3 3P% | 73.8 FT% Glass ceiling comp: Poor man’s Paul Millsap Boring mezzanine comp: Trim Jared Sullinger Dark basement comp: Poor man’s Craig Smith
The oft-forgotten two-way player for the Wolves has steadily found his groove in recent months. He had a breakout February, averaging a 22.5 point, 10.5 rebound double-double while shooting 41.7% from distance. Though his 11-game March hasn’t been as good, he’s logged a repeatable and consistent 16.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game averages while knocking down 36.6% of his triples.
Something that has stood out from Freeman has his been his increased playmaking skills. He’s averaged a career-best 3.5 assists this month while decreasing his turnovers down to just 1.5 per game. Enrique is a strong roll man who has made good decisions in the short roll, but also flashed some ability as an offensive hub at the top of the arc. The Puerto Rican has a dependable jump hook with either hand that Iowa can lean on in tough possessions.
Freeman will have a chance to prove himself on the defensive end in the postseason. He’s shown the ability to get deflections or go up for difficult rim contests, but he has to be more reliable on that end. I’d like to say that he is one of those players that acts before he thinks, often playing off instinct for better or worse. Sometimes he’ll wow you, but other times it’ll make some forehead slapping decisions.
Intriguing Prospects
DES MOINES, IA - MARCH 28: Jalen Crutcher #18 of the Iowa Wolves drives to the basket during the game against the Oklahoma City Blue on March 28, 2026 at Casey's Center in Des Moines, Iowa. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jasey Bradwell/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Jalen Crutcher Full season stats: 34 GP | 35.3 MP | 18.4 PTS | 3.2 REB | 6.0 AST | 0.8 STL | 0.4 BLK | 2.0 TOV | 1.9 PF 46.9 FG% | 43.3 3P% | 83.6 FT% Glass ceiling comp: Better shooting Dennis Schröder Boring mezzanine comp: “We Have Cameron Payne at home” Dark basement comp: Ryan Nembhard in four years
Jalen Crutcher has slowly, but surely, become one of the most important players on the roster. Sure, Rocco gets a lot of fanfare as a seven-foot unicorn. Joan makes waves every time he’s violently throwing down a dunk or swatting a shot. Zyon’s emergence has become the story of the season for Iowa.
But Crutcher has become an invaluable engine to this team.
Ever since he took over as the full-time starting point guard after Tristen Newton signed with Houston, the 26-year-old has been the best ball handler, playmaker, and perimeter shooter for Iowa. In March, Crutcher was launching 9.5 three-point attempts per game and connecting on 41% of them. Many of those were of the dribble pull-up variety. When defenders play up on him, he beats them with his signature floater.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Crutcher is offered a lucrative contract elsewhere. This is his fifth year in the G League and he’s been a more than productive innings eater for multiple teams.
STOCKTON, CA - FEBRUARY 25: Jules Bernard #14 of the Iowa Wolves drives to the basket during the game against the Stockton Kings on February 25, 2026 at Adventist Health Arena in Stockton, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jack Arent/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Jules Bernard Full season stats: 45 GP | 34.0 MP | 22.1 PTS | 6.2 REB | 5.2 AST | 1.1 STL | 0.4 BLK | 3.4 TOV | 1.9 PF 42.0 FG% | 32.9 3P% | 79.3 FT% Glass ceiling comp: Norman Powell Boring mezzanine comp: Bigger Cole Anthony Dark basement comp: Discount Jaden Hardy
The return of Pullin and increased role for Crutcher has predictably limited Bernard’s role. He had a standout January, but has begun to regress back to his inefficient ways in the last two months. Jules has also dealt with some injuries and illnesses recently, perhaps impacting his play.
At his best, Bernard is an overqualified third option on offense. At his worst, he’s disrupting the offensive flow by calling his own number too often. His perimeter shooting has steadily declined from 38.3% in January, down to 25% in March. He’s still effective at getting to the paint and drawing contact, but he frequently gets caught in the paint with no second plan of attack if the whistle isn’t blown.
There are 13 days left in the NBA’s 2025-26 regular season, but the Eastern Conference playoff picture remains a chaotic blur with the six teams in spots 5-10 separated by just 3.5 games. Trying to predict who might emerge as the Boston Celtics’ first-round opponent remains a dart throw.
Here’s what we know: The Celtics hold a two-game lead on the Knicks in the race for the No. 2 seed, though New York holds the head-to-head tiebreaker (division record) if the teams finish with matching records. There’s a very good chance that the final head-to-head meeting on April 9 will dictate exactly who emerges with the No. 2 seed.
The finish line of the Celtics’ schedule feels a bit like a playoff appetizer platter. Seven of Boston’s final 10 games are against potential first-round opponents, or that cluster of six teams slotted in spots 5-10 in the East. The Knicks would be the Round 2 opponent if they stay at No. 3 and the higher seeds take care of business in Round 1.
Given the volatility in spots 5-10, we wondered if there are more agreeable opponents than others for the Celtics. If Boston finishes with the No. 2 seed, it would play the winner of the 7-8 play-in game in Round 1; if the Celtics finish with the No. 3 seed, they would play the No. 6 seed to start the playoffs.
Just how jumbled is the bottom of the playoff bracket? All six teams in spots 5-10 are alive for the No. 7 spot, with no team holding better than a 33.1 percent chance to finish there, per Basketball Reference’s daily playoff probabilities report. The Charlotte Hornets face the longest odds to shuffle beyond the 9-10 matchup of the play-in tournament, but five teams have at least a 12 percent chance at the No. 7 spot, per Basketball Reference’s simulations.
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If the season ended today, the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic would meet in the 7-8 game to determine the No. 7 seed. The Atlanta Hawks, who snapped Boston’s three-game win streak on Monday, would be the No. 6 seed.
Who should Celtics fans want their team to face in Round 1? Is there truly a better matchup than another? Is there an opponent they might want to avoid more than another?
The Celtics own a 13-6 record against the teams at the bottom of the East bracket. That includes 3-0 marks against Miami and Toronto, though they’ll play both again over the next six days. Boston lost twice to Philadelphia, but played three games against the 76ers before November 11. The Celtics don’t look like quite the same team now, even beyond the obvious recent return of Jayson Tatum.
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To determine the most daunting opponent, we wondered how each of the teams in spots 5-10 fared against top-tier talent. So, we crunched each team’s numbers vs. opponents in the top 10 of point differential in the NBA. Here’s the data from the folks at Cleaning the Glass:
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It’s somewhat surprising that Miami has four more wins than any other team in that cluster. The Hornets — the only team in spots 5-10 that resides in the top 10 in point differential overall — have played fewer total games against top teams than their rivals.
Miami’s biggest weapon might be on the sideline with head coach Erik Spoelstra, who is capable of putting his team in the best possible position to be successful. In fact, the 2023 Heat are basically the only team to emerge from a play-in position and create noise in the postseason (as Celtics fans know all too well). The Heat made the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed that season.
The Celtics rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating this season, making a notable surge defensively in the second half of the season. So, how has the cluster of play-in potential teams fared against the top 10 squads in defensive rating this season?
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The Magic fare better than the pack against elite defenses, while Miami’s winning percentage dips compared to game against teams with the highest point differential.
The data suggests that Toronto might be the most ideal matchup for a top-tier opponent. Basketball Reference’s simulations give the Raptors a 79.5 percent chance to land outside the play-in.
The most likely 7-8 matchup per Basketball Reference’s simulations: Miami vs. Philadelphia. Those two teams just happened to meet on Monday night with the Heat, even while playing without Norm Powell, earning a double-digit win against a full-health Sixers squad.
Buckle up. There are still plenty of twists and turns before this playoff picture comes into focus.