We’ve made it to the end of the longest WNBA season to date — one which featured several twists and turns to make for an unpredictable and entertaining 2025 season. Fittingly, the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury have illustrated the unpredictability to a tee as the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals gets underway on Friday night in Las Vegas.
Outside of their own locker room, who thought that the Aces would be able to withstand the storm that was the first half of the season? It took back-to-back A’ja Wilson 30-point, 10-rebound double-doubles to land a couple of wins before the All-Star Break to secure an 11-11 record at the midway point. Vegas got popped 109-78 by Minnesota less than a week after the break, before reaching rock-bottom with a 53-point thumping from those same Lynx eight days later.
Yet, the embarrassment of the near-record-setting defeat may have also been the turning point — led by a Wilson MVP run, they pulled off a remarkable 16-game winning streak to close the regular season, allowing them to have two crucial series-deciding home games against the Storm and Fever during this playoff run.
As for the Phoenix Mercury, the consistency shown throughout their 44-game regular-season games didn’t come with the same attention that the Aces’ final stretch did. After having players in and out due to injury and signing DeWanna Bonner to begin the month of July, their regular season was at times inconsistent. The Mercury ended their regular season with three straight losses to teams that didn’t make the WNBA playoffs in the Sun, Wings, and Sparks.
Still, the Mercury's seven postseason games may speak louder than what the Aces have done to get here. On the back of MVP finalist Alyssa Thomas, the Mercury served the final blow to the New York Liberty, who could rarely find cohesion this season in their first-ever title defense, before taking down the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in four games. With two championship favorites out, there remains one box left unchecked for the Mercury to capture their first title since 2014.
As we near the start of the WNBA’s first-ever best-of-seven championship series, our staff previews the matchup and key storylines, as well as our predictions for who will come out on top.
▶ What is the most obvious challenge each team will face?
Cole Huff: The most obvious challenge Las Vegas will face is scoring on Phoenix’s top-rated postseason defense. The Liberty and Lynx had top-five offensive ratings and were among the five highest-scoring teams during the regular season before running into the well-oiled machine that is the Mercury’s top-rated postseason defense. Phoenix held its semifinal opponents under 80 points twice in regulation and didn’t allow more than 73 points to its first-round opponent — Wilson and Jackie Young will likely need other Aces players to join the party offensively on a more consistent basis than against the Fever if they want to avoid being the latest offense to be handcuffed by the Mercury’s defense.
Coincidentally, the Aces currently carry the highest offensive rating of any team this postseason, which could deliver the Mercury plenty of challenges. Whether it's been a group effort, like in their Game 3 victory over the Fever in which five players scored in double figures or in the series-clinching win when Wilson and Young became the first pair of teammates to score 30 or more points in the same playoff game, the Aces have had the type of offense through eight postseason games that could overcome Phoenix’s defense.
Jackie Powell: The Mercury pose many challenges to the Aces and that includes how Las Vegas will attempt to guard Alyssa Thomas, the Mercury’s point forward that essentially operates on the floor like a point guard rather than a front court player. If A’ja Wilson is assigned to guard Thomas, the Aces run the risk of having to play their Defensive Player of the Year and MVP on the perimeter rather than protecting the paint and protecting the rim.
But besides how the Aces decide to guard Thomas, the most obvious challenge the Aces will face is how the Mercury approach physicality on both ends of the ball. The Aces struggled defending Aliyah Boston for that very reason and so how will they handle the ways in which Thomas can overpower opponents on offense while also suffocating them on defense.
Now on the flip side, how will the Mercury guard Wilson when Natasha Mack isn’t on the floor? Mack usually starts games but often hasn’t closed them as the Mercury have opted for a more offensive-friendly lineup that features DeWanna Bonner instead which is understandable since Mack doesn’t add much floor spacing and is most used offensively in the dunker spot. Or how about when Katheryn Westbeld, a serviceable stretch big, is subbed in Mack’s place. How are the Mercury guarding Wilson?
Before the 29th WNBA Finals gets underway, dig into some WNBA Championship history, including Finals MVPs and which team has won the most titles.
▶ Who is each team’s X-Factor and why?
Huff: Calling a former Finals MVP an X-Factor could seem like a slight, but in this case, I truly think of Chelsea Gray as the difference-maker for the Aces. While Wilson keyed the Aces’ 16-game win streak to end the season, Gray was quietly very productive over that span. Her functionality as a floor general remains massive for the Aces’ offense. Still, when she’s been productive as a scorer during this playoff run, it’s usually yielded positive results for Las Vegas. If Gray can remain a consistent scoring threat throughout this matchup, life will be much easier for the Aces’ two all-stars.
On Phoenix’s side, I’m going to take the easy route here and give two names: DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb. Both veteran players come off the bench, log starter-level minutes, and provide the Mercury with perimeter shooting and high basketball IQ. Their values have already been on display down the stretch of some of these playoff games, particularly against the Lynx in the semifinals. Both players will have their moments during the Finals, but the number of moments they have could be the difference between wins and losses.
Powell: I agree with all of Cole’s picks, but on the Aces side I’m going to be really looking at how much Dana Evans contributes and how head coach Becky Hammon uses her to exploit the Mercury’s defense especially when Sami Whitcomb—who’s typically one step slower defensively—is on the floor. Evans puts so much pressure on the rim and when the Mercury are in one of their more offensive-friendly lineups without Mack and Monique Akoa Makani, where are they getting rim protection and high level perimeter defense from?
A number of the Mercury’s clutch moments in these playoffs have been as a result of DeWanna Bonner. If she’s made a circus shot at the end of the shot clock or finally hit a wide open three-pointer after missing so many previously, she’s been finding ways to lift the Mercury when they need it the most. Her heroics are going to have to continue if Phoenix is going to win this series. But also on the defensive end, the Mercury are going to have to leverage Bonner’s length especially when the Aces will look to exploit the Mercury’s size with speed. Bonner is going to be relied upon heavily on switches to impede the field of view of guards like Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd.
▶ The Aces will win this series if…
Huff: Much like their second-round opponent, the Aces will face a physical opponent in the Finals — they need to match Phoenix’s physicality to win this series. Thomas and Kahleah Copper, in particular, are likely to get downhill repeatedly, making it crucial for Las Vegas to defend without fouling and then clean up misses with defensive boards. The Aces have been one of the least productive defensive rebounding teams thus far — keeping the Mercury away from second-chance points and keeping them off the line would force their offense to put the ball in the basket to score points, which it hasn’t done efficiently to this point in the postseason. With said physicality and rebounding being necessities in this series, I expect NaLyssa Smith to play a big role for Vegas in its quest for championship No. 3.
Powell: If Aces head coach Becky Hammon can figure out how to exploit and successfully guard the Mercury’s inverse pick-and-roll where Thomas is screened by either Monique Akoa Makani or Sami Whitcomb, Las Vegas puts themselves in a very favorable position to win the series. That inverse pick-and-roll has been one of the Mercury’s most successful plays during the postseason and part of the reason why teams have struggled to guard it is because a strong guard has to be able to take a lot of contact on the switch from Thomas. Courtney Williams struggled with this in the semifinals and Sabrina Ionescu also couldn’t always keep pace with Thomas in the first round. The Aces, however, might have the strongest guard in the league in Jackie Young, who could be the very player to neutralize the play.
▶ The Mercury will win this series if…
Huff: While I could roll with the Mercury’s dominant defense being the reason why they run through the tape and earn their fourth WNBA championship, the more obvious factor, I believe, is receiving the best version of Satou Sabally. In the Mercury’s two playoff losses, she’s averaging 9.5 points on 5-of-28 shooting (17.9 percent); in the five wins, she’s up to 21.2 points on 31-of-69 from the field (44.9 percent). With her shooting stroke and ability to get downhill as a 6-foot-4 wing, Sabally has the tools to be a matchup nightmare for the Aces. Phoenix will bring home the championship if she has a big series.
Powell: The only times the Mercury have lost games in the postseason has been when their opponent has made more three-pointers and has rebounded better than the Mercury. That might sound simple, but this formula also applies to a seven-game WNBA Finals. Also, if the officials allow more contact rather than less as they have during the entire playoffs, the Mercury will use that to their advantage. Like Cole noted above, if Phoenix’s defense can wear down the Aces and subsequently successfully turn them over, the Mercury’s margin for error widens especially when Thomas can play make and create easier offense in transition.
As the WNBA enters an era of increased exposure and popularity, the Mercury are one of the league’s crown jewels.
▶ Prediction time: Who will win the series and in how many games? Who will win finals MVP?
Huff: The Mercury have put together an encouraging run thus far, despite other teams’ injuries, and have clear momentum entering Friday night — they’ve been the best team this postseason, in my honest opinion. That said, even with the Aces having struggled to put away some of the lower seeds, I’m picking them to win this series. Vegas defeated Phoenix in three of the teams’ four matchups this season, with the Aces’ lone loss being a game A’ja Wilson missed due to being in the league’s concussion protocols. All seven games will be needed, however, with homecourt advantage ultimately being what does it for head coach Becky Hammon’s squad. Wilson collects her second Finals MVP award along the way to add to her trophy room.
Powell: Cole and I differ on this one simply because I truly believe the Mercury have been the team of destiny this entire post season. They also have exploited the weaknesses of their opponents incredibly well and I don’t expect that to stop in the WNBA Finals. Head coach Nate Tibbetts has successfully gotten his team to buy into playing physical and sometimes exaggerated the defense they play which has led to even more inconsistencies from the officiating crews. Yes, I just went there! I don’t expect the Aces to roll over, especially when they have two of the best players in the league in Wilson and Young. But, reliable depth matters in a series that will be the longest in WNBA history. I trust the Mercury’s depth more than the Aces’ and so I’m picking the Mercury to win it in six games on their home court.
When it comes to the MVP, my choice is a bit unconventional. Thomas is going to be targeted by the Aces and she’ll be getting multiple looks throughout the series. But the ultimate matchup nightmare for Las Vegas might be Satou Sabally, who if she can keep her shot selection within herself instead of forcing shots, will have the chance to be the Mercury’s most efficient offensive player. Just like how the Minnesota Lynx a year ago had difficulty stopping Jonquel Jones because so much of their energy was on Breanna Stewart, I believe the same will happen this year with Sabally. Her combination of length, speed and shooting will be too much for an Aces team that’s best lineup is when they play smaller.
Raphielle Johnson
