According to ESPN, Tatum may make his much-anticipated return as soon as Friday, March 6 against the Dallas Mavericks. Per ESPN, Tatum will inform the team over the next day about his availability against Dallas.
In the first injury report for the game, the Celtics officially listed Tatum as questionable. Presumably, Tatum will undergo final preparations to ensure he's ready to go, but, either way, Tatum had been ramping up his rehab.
Last month, the Celtics announced that Tatum participated in portions of a G League practice.
The news comes as a boost for a Celtics team that has outperformed external expectations, compiling a 41-21 record without its six-time All-Star. Boston is currently the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and is just 5 games back of the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.
Tatum, 27, had suffered the injury May 12, 2025, during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Knicks. He has remained a steady presence around the team through its first 53 games of the season.
In September, Tatum told USA TODAY Sports that he hadn’t fully ruled out a return to the court for the 2025-26 season, so this aggressive timeline indicates that he and the Celtics likely feel they can contend for an Eastern Conference championship this season.
Last season, Tatum averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.
MIAMI, FL - MARCH 3: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat shoots the ball during the game against the Brooklyn Nets on March 3, 2026 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The streak rolls on. The Brooklyn Nets began a three game road trip on Tuesday night against the Miami Heat. The Heat were too hot to handle and handed the Nets their ninth straight defeat, 124-98. Fortunately for the Nets, they didn’t have to travel between games. Unfortunately for the Nets, they have to play the Heat one more time.
Where to follow the game
YES Network on TV. WFAN on radio. Gotham Sports on streaming. Tip after 7:30 PM.
🤕 Injuries
No Egor Demin. Drake Powell and the three two-ways are with Long Island. Grant Nelson remains with Brooklyn on a 10-day.
Norman Powell is out.
🏀 The game
Miami won the first two meetings. This is the last meeting between the teams this season.
Michael Porter Jr is looking to bounce back tonight. He tied a season low with nine points and Tuesday was only the third time this season he’s been held below ten points. When he doesn’t play well, Brooklyn’s slim chances of victory drop all the way to zero.
Every game is a lesson for the Nets, and without Demin for the foreseeable future, Nolan Traore and Ben Saraf will have plenty of chances to learn on the job. They had respectively terrible games against the Heat defense, and Jordi Fernandez wants them to be a lot better this time around:
“I know they’re better. There’s not an excuse if their young, I’ve watched them play, and they’re way, way better than 12 turnovers to zero assists. The assists — sometimes if the shots don’t go in, it’s hard to get assists. I don’t know about the potential assist. I have to look at it, but the turnovers for sure, like how they organize the team, how vocal they are, all that it’s important.”
No time better than the present to learn and grow.
👀 Player to watch: Bam Adebayo
Adebayo has been one of the better, more versatile defenders in the league throughout the 2020s. However, he doesn’t have as much hardware as you’d think. He’s never finished higher than third in Defensive Player of the Year voting and has only made 1st Team All Defense once. Although he hasn’t gotten love from the voters, Bam knows that everyone sees his value:
“From my peers and the people who play against me and understand that you’ve got to put me in the corner, so I don’t mess up your offensive schemes, that’s what matters more… that’s real in basketball. A lot of people who are doing surveys wouldn’t know that. They just think because, ‘Oh, he’s a DPOY because he has five blocks a game.’”
An inspired closing run by the Heat could cause voters to change their mind. As it stands, he’s leading one of the best defensive units in the NBA this year.
Nic Claxton and Day’ron Sharpe have the assignment of slowing down not just Adebayo, but Kel’el Ware off the bench as well. It seems like the Heat still have reservations about Ware, but he fills up the box sheet every night he gets real minutes. And for a team that’s older than you think, they need some youth somewhere.
The Toronto Raptors have some demons when facing good teams this season.
They’ve made a habit of coughing up leads late. For example, they held a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter and lost the last time they played the Minnesota Timberwolves on February 4.
My Raptors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks break down if Toronto can exercise some of those demons at the Target Center in what should be a low-scoring game on Thursday, March 5.
Raptors vs Timberwolves prediction
Raptors vs Timberwolves best bet: Under 225.5 (-110)
For whatever reason, the Toronto Raptors are coming up short in big games, but strong defense has been a staple, which has me looking at the Under tonight vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves.
It’s a matchup of two Top-10 defenses, with one of the Raptors’ strengths being their 3-point defense. They allow the fifth-lowest percentage in the NBA, which is important against a T-wolves team that ranks 11th in made threes per game.
Combine that with the Raps’ inconsistent scoring, and it’s no surprise that Toronto has been one of the better Under bets in the NBA at 24-37 O/U.
Raptors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Minnesota has been great defensively this season, ranking ninth in defensive rating and seventh in opponent effective field goal percentage.
That means missed shots, and Toronto ranks 18th in rebounding rate, so give me the Over on Rudy Gobert’s rebounds.
Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards was a menace when these two teams last played, nabbing three steals, and he's topped 1.5 steals in seven of his last 11 games. I’ll take the Over at plus money.
Raptors vs Timberwolves SGP
Under 22.5.5
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 rebounds
Anthony Edwards Over 1.5 steals
Our "from downtown" SGP: Big-man battle
This matchup between Gobert and Jakob Poeltl could be a big key to this game, and a double-double is on the table for both.
Raptors vs Timberwolves SGP
Rudy Gobert double-double
Jakob Poeltl double-double
Raptors vs Timberwolves odds
Spread: Raptors +4.5 | Timberwolves -4.5
Moneyline: Raptors +170 | Timberwolves -205
Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Raptors vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Raptors have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games for +11.40 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Raptors vs Timberwolves
Location
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
Sportsnet, FDSN North
Raptors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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GREENVILLE, S.C. (AP) — Clara Strack made a career-high five 3-pointers in matching her career best of 33 points and No. 17 Kentucky defeated No. 22 Georgia 76-61 in the second round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday.
Strack, a 6-foot-5 center, was 5 of 7 from the arc, 12 of 22 overall and grabbed eight rebounds for the ninth-seeded Wildcats (23-9), who will play top seed and third-ranked South Carolina in a Friday quarterfinal.
Teonni Key added 14 points and 12 rebounds and Tonie Morgan also scored 14 points and had seven assists for the Wildcats, who shot 50% and were 14 of 20 at the line to 6 of 8 for the Bulldogs.
Dani Carnegie scored 18 points, Trinity Turner 14 and Mia Woolfolk 11 for Georgia (22-9), which was just 5 of 26 on 3-pointers.
Strack and Amelia Hassett scored all the points in 13-2 run that left Kentucky ahead by 15 with under three minutes to go.
A Strack 3-pointer early in the third quarter gave Kentucky the lead for good. The Wildcats hit six straight shots in the period and Strack scored nine points for a 54-49 lead.
After Georgia scored the opening basket, Kentucky took and held the lead the remainder of the first quarter with Strack hitting a pair of 3-pointers and scoring 13 points. Carnegie hit a pair of 3s and scored the Bulldogs' first eight points of the second quarter to tie the game with Georgia leading 36-35 at the break.
Up next
Kentucky will get another shot at South Carolina, which took a 60-56 road win over the Wildcats on March 1.
Georgia will wait to see where it lands in the NCAA Tournament field.
DULUTH, Ga. (AP) — Mia Moore scored 10 of her 19 points in the fourth quarter, Taylor Johnson-Matthews finished with 10 points and Clemson beat Virginia 63-50 on Thursday in the second round of the ACC Tournament.
Clemson (21-10), which reached 21 wins in a season for the first time since 2000-01, advances to play top-seeded and 13th-ranked Duke on Friday in the quarterfinals.
Hannah Kohn and Johnson-Matthews each made a 3-pointer in the final 80 seconds of the third quarter to give Clemson a 43-39 lead. Then Moore made Clemson's 10th 3-pointer — on just 20 attempts — early in the fourth to make it 50-41.
Moore banked in a shot in traffic to extend Clemson's lead to 60-48 late in the fourth. She made all four of her shots in the fourth to help the Tigers shoot 85.7% in the frame.
Clemson's lead did not drop below nine points in the final five minutes despite going 7 of 13 from the free-throw line in the fourth. Virginia was just 5 of 15 from the field in the fourth with three turnovers.
Virginia (19-11) was looking to collect 20 wins for the first time since the 2016-17 season.
Paris Clark scored 15 points and Kymora Johnson added 12 for Virginia. Sa’Myah Smith had 11 rebounds and three blocks.
Up next
Clemson, the No. 9 seed, edged Duke 53-51 in the only regular-season meeting on Feb. 22.
Virginia, which had 11 ACC wins in a season for the first time since 1999-00, awaits an invitation to play in a postseason tournament.
ORLANDO, FL - MARCH 1: Wendell Carter Jr. #34 of the Orlando Magic drives to the basket during the game against the Detroit Pistons on March 1, 2026 at Kia Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Dallas Mavericks (21-40, 7-20 Away) continue their road trip with a Wednesday night matchup against the Orlando Magic (32-28, 18-11 Home) at 6:00 PM CST. Cooper Flagg is back in the lineup after missing eight games with a foot injury, but the cavalry isn’t riding in with him. Marvin Bagley is out. Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Brandon Williams are all game-time decisions.
Let’s scan the lines in search of value.
🏀 Fixture: Dallas Mavericks (21–37, 9–20 Away) @ Orlando Magic (38–20, 21–8 Home) 📍 Kia Center — Orlando, FL 🕢 6:00 PM CST, March 5, 2026 📺 KFAA-TV / MavsTV / NBA App
📊 DraftKings Snapshot (as of 11:30 AM CST, March 5) Spread: ORL -8.5 (–115) | DAL +8.5 (–105) Total: 230.5 (O –110 / U –110) Moneyline: ORL –380 | DAL +300
📉 Game Side Lean: Magic -8.5
Orlando’s defense is suffocating. Dallas’ offense is broken. This is not a complicated equation.
The Mavericks have scored 108.9 points per game over the eight games without Flagg—dead last in the league during that span. Max Christie, who started the season shooting nearly 50% from three, has cratered. The scoring punch that made Dallas competitive earlier in the season has evaporated, and even with Flagg returning tonight, he’s fresh off an eight-game absence. Rust is real.
Orlando, meanwhile, boasts one of the league’s best defenses and a home-court advantage that is palpable versus weak offenses (18-11 Home). Paolo Banchero just dropped 37 on Washington and is averaging 24 points per game over his last ten. Desmond Bane is right there with him at 26 per game over this recent stretch. Franz Wagner is out, which thins Orlando’s scoring depth, but the Magic don’t need a deep rotation to handle a Mavericks team that might be without Klay, Naji, and Brandon Williams.
The bright spot for Dallas? They’re drawing 22.6 fouls per game and attempting 29.1 free throws in Flagg’s absence — both league-leading marks. That might keep this game closer than it should be for stretches, but it won’t be enough to cover 8.5 points on the road against a team this good defensively.
Magic win. Magic cover. The tank rolls on.
🔮 Total Lean: Under 230.5
This game won’t sniff 230.5.
Dallas’ offense is in shambles. They’re averaging 108.9 points per game without Flagg and have no consistent perimeter shooting with Max Christie slumping hard. Even if Flagg returns, he’s been out for eight games and will likely see restricted minutes as he shakes off the rust.
Orlando’s defense is elite, and their offense—while effective—isn’t built to run teams off the floor. Banchero and Bane will get theirs, but without Franz Wagner, the Magic lack the secondary scoring to push the pace into shootout territory. This feels like a grind-it-out game where Dallas scraps to stay competitive by getting to the free-throw line and Orlando methodically pulls away.
The math points under. Two teams with offensive limitations, one elite defense, and a game script that favors physicality over pace.
🎯 Player Props We Like
Wendell Carter Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (–125)
Carter is averaging 7.6 rebounds per game on the season and 9.0 per game in March. With Franz Wagner out, Orlando’s frontcourt workload falls even more heavily on Carter’s shoulders, and Dallas is missing Marvin Bagley — their best rebounder since the Anthony Davis trade. The Mavericks are thin in the paint, and Carter should dominate the glass on both ends. He’s pulled down double-digit rebounds in multiple games recently, and against a depleted Dallas frontcourt, 7.5 feels like a gift. Smash the over.
Cooper Flagg Over 3.5 Assists (–114)
Flagg is returning to the lineup after an eight-game absence, and Orlando knows it. He’s the ROY candidate, the franchise cornerstone, the main reason to watch this Mavericks team right now. The Magic will double-team him relentlessly, forcing him to pass out of pressure and create for teammates. Flagg averaged 4.1 assists per game before his injury, and with the Mavs’ offense desperately needing playmaking, he’ll be looking to facilitate early and often. Orlando’s defensive scheme will gift him assist opportunities. The line at 3.5 feels low for a player this talented coming back against a defense designed to take the ball out of his hands.
💡 Summary:
The Magic are better, healthier, and playing at home. The Mavericks are limping in with Cooper Flagg returning from injury and half their rotation on the injury report. We’ll ride Orlando -8.5, lean under, and hope Wendell Carter cleans the glass while Flagg racks up assists against a double-team-heavy defense.
PHOENIX, AZ - FEBRUARY 24: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics looks on during the game against the Phoenix Suns on February 24, 2026 at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Jayson Tatum could make his long-anticipated return when the Celtics face the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night, the team announced on Thursday via the official injury report. For the first time since he ruptured his Achilles tendon, Tatum is listed as questionable to appear in Friday’s game.
Injury Report for tomorrow vs. DAL:
Jayson Tatum – Right Achilles Repair – QUESTIONABLE
Tatum, who was first injured in May in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals against the New York Knicks, has been working toward his recovery all season, accompanying the team for nearly every practice, shootaround, and film session.
According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Tatum has been participating in 5-on-5 workouts over the past few weeks. The Celtics also announced that he participated in a practice with the Maine Celtics earlier this month.
Without Tatum, the Celtics have held up better than most expected; they have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference at 41-21, and the fifth-best record in the NBA. They have won 7 of their last 10 games.
But his all-around prowess as one of the NBA’s best players should elevate Boston to another level.
Jayson Tatum’s return comes 10 months after the injury was first suffered
Last month at Celtics practice, Tatum said he still had no set return date. He said he won’t play until he’s 100%, and didn’t disclose what percent he was at.
“I feel like I’m beating a dead horse,” Tatum said. “I’m taking it one day at a time. This is something that’s very serious. The injury that I had is just a long journey. For me, it’s just easier to take it one day at a time and see how I progress from there.”
With Tatum cleared to return on Friday, he’ll make his return less than 10 months after the initial injury.
While the average return-to-play timeline is around 10 months, it’s varied significantly. Kevin Durant did not play in a game for 18 months. Miami Heat guard Dru Smith, who ruptured his Achilles tendon last season, was cleared for training camp just 9 months after the injury. On the flip side, Damian Lillard, who tore his Achilles tendon a month before Tatum did, was almost immediately ruled out for this season. New Orleans Pelicans guard Dejounte Murray missed 13 months with the injury before returning to the court last month.
By all accounts, Tatum has worked tirelessly behind-the-scenes to get to this point. Xavier Tillman, who was traded from the Celtics to the Charlotte Hornets last month, praised Tatum’s work ethic this season.
“[His work] was pretty constant,” Tillman said. “He was here six days a week, getting it in, and always doing something to better his body. And it was actually pretty impressive to see somebody so dedicated. When I had those moments during games to just chop it up with him, he just talked about how much he just misses playing. Like, he misses being able to get a rebound, push it, talk crap to the other team, and just everything that comes with playing.”
On Wednesday night, Derrick White similarly said Tatum has looked good of late.
“Playing, moving, it’s been good to see him back and getting up and down,” White said. “So, you kind of see all the work he’s put in to get to this point, and it’s been great to see him be able to do what he loves to do.”
Now, for the first time in over a year, he could get to do what he really loves to do: suit up in an actual NBA game.
SOUTHAVEN, MS - FEBRUARY 27: Mark Sears #19 of the Wisconsin Herd looks to pass the ball during the game against the Memphis Hustle on February 27, 2026 at Landers Center in Southaven, Mississippi. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Wisconsin Herd went 1-2 over last week’s slate of games as the Bucks filled their final two-way slot. With just ten games remaining in the season, the Herd is 5.5 games out of a playoff spot.
The Herd continued their losing streak with an away loss to the Windy City Bulls. Led by new two-way player Cormac Ryan, the Herd established an early lead over the Bulls. However, the Herd went cold after the game’s first fiery moments and couldn’t fire back against the Bulls’ frequent scoring runs. Despite solid inside defense, their inability to stop Mac McClung (42 points) was the primary cause of their Tuesday loss.
Ryan’s 36-point outburst may have gotten him signed to the Bucks on Thursday. The North Carolina alum has steadily proved his worth for the Herd: averaging 21.8 points per game on .489/.434/.859 shooting splits. Yet, Ryan’s strengths extend outside of his shooting. He’s a solid rebounder, an imposing defender, and versatile on both sides of the ball. Although his fit with the Bucks remains to be seen, Ryan’s role with the Herd is well-known: to shoot the leather off the ball.
With Ryan out, likely finalizing the terms of his two-way contract in Milwaukee, the Herd pushed their losing streak to nine games. The Herd continued their struggles of finding momentum. The Hustle started the game with a 24-7 run, and after the Herd fought back to close the lead to four, extended their lead to over 20 points in the second half. The Herd, who shot just above 22% from deep and were comprehensively outrebounded, ended their Thursday night game with a 20-point loss.
Without Ryan, we learned more about two-way player Alex Antetokounmpo and former All-American guard Mark Sears. Antetokounmpo found his shooting rhythm in a season where he has lacked it. His confidence surged on Thursday as he shot 2/4 from distance. His surprisingly solid shooting could inspire hope in Bucks execs worried about his poor long-range shooting and commitment to the three. In a limited time, Antetokounmpo has shot just over 24% from three on 2.6 three-point attempts per game.
The Herd claimed their first win since January in the second game of a back-to-back against the Hustle. With Ryan back, the Herd shot well from downtown (14/30) while exerting their control over the glass through the efforts of Lacey James (8 rebounds), Kira Lewis Jr. (7 rebounds), and more. In a season where the Herd has struggled to string together scoring runs and summon momentum when they need it, they got it in the final minutes of Friday night’s game. The Herd used incisive drives to the basket and physical defense to string together several key baskets and pull away from the Hustle in the final moments.
Three Notes
Cormac Ryan signs two-way deal
Cormac Ryan signed a two-way deal with the Bucks, meaning he’ll be eligible for the Bucks’ second half of the season. It’s been obvious that Ryan would get the call-up; not only has he established himself as the team’s star, but he also helps address the team’s struggles on defense. Ryan likely won’t see a lot of minutes behind wings like AJ Green, Ousmane Dieng, Gary Trent Jr., etc., but his length and versatility could make him an appealing shot of energy off the bench.
Sears keeps scoring
Mark Sears has been the Herd’s most unlikely star in 2026. Since being waived by the Bucks in January and signing a full-time contract with the Herd, Sears has averaged 17.0 points, 5.9 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game. The 6’0” guard has proven himself to be a polished guard with a natural scoring instinct and solid playmaking, and his 30-point outburst in the Herd’s Friday night win shows he can be a real game-changer. However, Sears still faces a long climb back to an NBA roster. He can be a streaky shooter, and his relatively small size makes him a liability on defense. Although the Bucks don’t have a present need for Sears’ role as an attack-minded floor general, he could be a G League player to watch as multiple teams close in.
Herd reveal Aztec-inspired jerseys
2014 LeBron, anyone? The Herd is auctioning off game-worn Hispanic Heritage Jerseys to help support the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh’s Chicana/o & Latinx Studies Program. The “El Herd” jerseys are pretty sick; they feature Aztec-inspired designs, intended to “reflect and honor the indigenous roots of Hispanic heritage.” The Herd will wear the jerseys ahead of their back-to-back games against the Mexico City Capitanes on Friday and Saturday.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MARCH 19: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns drives to the basket against Patrick Williams #44 of the Chicago Bulls during the first half at PHX Arena on March 19, 2025 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Bulls 127-121. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Phoenix Suns have had some great wins this season amid their surprising season. They beat the Oklahoma City Thunder after being down 18, stormed back against the Timberwolves despite being down eight with 50 seconds left, and manhandled the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers back-to-back nights, but the main reason the Suns are sitting 10 games ahead of .500 is because of how often they handle business against lesser opponents.
No matter who is in the lineup, whether they’re playing a tanking squad or a struggling one, they take care of business.
After win against the Kings, the trend has continued. Now 20-5 against teams under .500, the Suns are 10 games above .500 for the first time since February 10th, after beating another inferior team they handled their business against, the Dallas Mavericks. The last time Phoenix lost to a team not currently in the play-in standings or better came all the way back before Halloween, on October 29th, vs the Grizzlies, when Ja Morant hit a game-winning floater with eight seconds left.
Even when the Suns have had their stars out, they’ve taken advantage of lesser opponents, beating the Portland Trailblazers last month without Devin Booker, and now recently taking care of Sacramento this week without Dillon Brooks and Jordan Goodwin playing.
While the play-in and potentially the playoffs won’t be filled with teams trying to tank for better picks, and lineups littered with players younger than me (I’m 22), the wins have not only continued to give the Suns a cushion between them and the eighth seed (the Golden State Warriors have trailed them for more than half the season), but also keep them alive to finish as a top-six seed. The team sits just 1.5 games out of sixth.
Two teams ahead of the Suns in the Western Conference standings, the Lakers and Timberwolves, two teams the Suns won the season series against, have struggled against lesser opponents. Both teams have dropped many games they had no business doing so, which could be the difference between the two teams being in or out of the play-in, and Phoenix jumping them in the final standings. The Lakers recently lost to the shorthanded Orlando Magic and Suns, while before they started their four-game winning streak, Minnesota got embarrassed by the 76ers without Joel Embiid playing.
In order to build a culture in the NBA, consistency is needed. As good as the Oklahoma City Thunder are at facing the NBA’s best, they’re even better at handling their business against lesser teams, which is why they won 68 games last year, 57 the year before, and have the best winning percentage in the NBA this year. They’re 25-3 against teams under .500, and were 37-4 against the same type of opponents last year. Last season, they led the league in wins in the category, and are doing so again this year.
The Suns, as currently constructed, aren’t set up to be the Oklahoma City Thunder and compete for championships year after year. Phoenix isn’t even one of the front-runners to be hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy this year, but just like the Thunder, they are building an identity, one that represents a team that takes care of the business against teams that they’re supposed to.
Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, and the model has flagged a few plays that stand out.
After digging into the numbers and comparing our projections to the current market lines, we were able to zero in on the spots offering the most value.
These Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions aren’t based on guesswork, they’re driven by the data.
If you’re building your betting card, these are the NBA picks the model likes most for Thursday, March 5.
Lakers vs Nuggets computer picks for March 5
Lakers
Nuggets
Doncic u30.5 points -115
Murray u26.5 points -120
James o5.5 rebounds +120
Jokic u10.5 assists -130
Reaves u2.5 3-pointers -185
Braun u5.5 rebounds -145
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Lakers computer picks
Luka Doncic Under 30.5 points (-115)
Projection: 30.2 points
The Los Angeles Lakers could see fewer scoring opportunities in this matchup, as they face a Denver Nuggets squad that has played at the third-slowest home pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.
That slower tempo hasn’t helped Luka Doncic lately either, as he’s stayed Under 30.5 points in eight of his last 10 games.
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LeBron James Over 5.5 rebounds (+120)
Projection: 5.9 rebounds
The Nuggets’ offensive style creates opportunities. With Nikola Jokic facilitating from the perimeter and Denver frequently generating jump shots, there are plenty of rebound chances that fall outside the immediate paint.
That plays right into LeBron James' strengths, as he crashes from the wing rather than relying solely on traditional center positioning.
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Austin Reaves Under 2.5 3-pointers (-185)
Projection: 2.3 3-pointers
The Lakers have been the worst offensive rebounding team in the league over their last 25 games, which limits second-chance opportunities.
That trend lines up with Austin Reaves staying Under 2.5 made threes in nine of his last 10 games, especially in a tougher offensive environment like a road matchup against the Nuggets.
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Nuggets computer picks
Jamal Murray Under 26.5 points (-120)
Projection: 24.8 points
The Nuggets have been running at the third-slowest pace in the NBA over their last 10 home games.
Facing the Lakers will be more challenging for Jamal Murray to hit his points prop, with this matchup leaning toward an Under.
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Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 assists (-130)
Projection: 10.0 assists
Nikola Jokic has had a little trouble hitting his assist line recently, going Under 10.5 assists in five of his last 10 games.
The Lakers feature frontcourt and perimeter defenders who can clog passing lanes, force quicker decisions, contest shots, and create turnovers, which are all factors that limit clean assist opportunities
It could leave Jokic just short of the Over on this prop tonight.
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Christian Braun Under 5.5 rebounds (-145)
Projection: 4.9 rebounds
The Nuggets have struggled on the offensive glass, ranking as the third-worst rebounding team at home over their last 20 games.
That trend aligns with Christian Braun going Under 5.5 rebounds in four of his last 10 games, suggesting a similar outcome tonight.
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How to watch Lakers vs Nuggets tonight
Location
Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Tip-off
10:00 p.m. ET
TV
Prime Video
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It was a homecoming night for Ivica Zubac on Wednesday. He had been a fan favorite with the Clippers since 2019, but was traded at the deadline to Indiana, and there was plenty of love for him among the Intuit Dome faithful.
Zubac did not play in this game, he hasn't taken the court since Feb. 2 due to a left ankle sprain. Before the game, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said Zuback will eventually play this season, but there is no timeline, via Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star.
The Pacers will be slow to bring Zubac back because he's good and they can't afford to start winning games — if they do, it's the Clippers who benefit. As part of the Zubac trade, Indiana's first-round pick this year goes to the Clippers, but it's top-four protected. At 15-47, Indiana has the second-worst record in the league, but with the lottery odds that makes it just a coin-flip Indy gets to keep the pick: 52.2% it is top four and goes to the Pacers, 47.8% it is five or six and goes to the Clippers. Indiana, Brooklyn and Washington are in a tight "race" to the bottom — they are all within 1.5 games of each other in the standings — and if the Pacers fall to the fourth-worst record, then they end up on the wrong side of those coin flip odds.
Next season, when a healthy Zubac is running pick-and-roll with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton (out for the season with a torn Achilles), a lot of fans who may not have understood just how good Zubac is are going to find out. He's going to thrive in that role. This season, it sounds like he will play some, but the Pacers have a fine line to walk.
Blowouts and bad shooting have skewed De’Aaron Fox’s recent output, with his points production fluctuating more than cryptocurrencies.
Fox has scored 14 points or fewer in four of his last five showings, but the San Antonio Spurs need their All-Star guard to lock in for a huge non-conference collision with the Detroit Pistons.
This potential NBA Finals matchup sets the tone for a daunting stretch of San Antonio's schedule, and my Pistons vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks are optimistic that Fox will find his form.
Pistons vs Spurs prediction
Pistons vs Spurs best bet: De’Aaron Fox Over 16.5 points (-105)
In the seven games since the All-Star break, De’Aaron Fox has averaged only 13.6 points in 27.2 minutes — a stark dip from the 19.4 points over 32 minutes ahead of the annual hiatus.
One-sided wins and a few bad shooting nights have impacted his output, which naturally slims his scoring props. Fox’s points totals were as high as 18.5 O/U, but we’re getting an opportunity to buy back a discounted total in a marquee matchup.
Player projections have Fox logging his standard 30+ minutes and putting up 18 points versus the Detroit Pistons, with some sharper books pricing Over at -131.
Pistons vs Spurs same-game parlay
The San Antonio Spurs are the hottest team in the league and host the Pistons for their second straight road game after a loss at Cleveland. The Spurs are 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread since February 1.
Fox’s points prop has dropped since the All-Star break, with limited minutes in blowouts and some bad shooting nights hurting his output. He’s expected to get more than 30 minutes and put up 18 points vs. the Pistons, accounting for an off night against Detroit last month (10 points on 4-for-17 shooting).
Dylan Harper is another Spurs standout with an optimistic evaluation tonight. He’s projected for double digits, with a ceiling of 11.5 points. He’s scored 10 or more in nine of the last dozen games.
Pistons vs Spurs SGP
Spurs -3.5
De’Aaron Fox Over 16.5 points
Dylan Harper Over 9.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
We’re expecting Fox to find his scoring stride and power the Spurs to a high-scoring resume win over the Pistons, but his playmaking will take a hit because of it. Fox projects for Under 6.5 dimes against a Detroit defense allowing the fewest assists per game.
Pistons vs Spurs SGP
Spurs -3.5
Over 228.5
De’Aaron Fox Over 16.5 points
De’Aaron Fox Under 6.5 assists
Pistons vs Spurs odds
Spread: Pistons +3.5 (-110) | Spurs -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pistons +135 | Spurs -160
Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
Pistons vs Spurs betting trend to know
The San Antonio Spurs are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS since February 1, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home in that stretch. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Spurs.
How to watch Pistons vs Spurs
Location
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Date
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
FDSN Detroit, FDSN Southwest
Pistons vs Spurs latest injuries
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The NBA season has reached a wonky stage, with teams like the Chicago Bulls effectively playing out the string.
That shows up in all sorts of ways, and tonight it will benefit the Phoenix Suns as they try to escape the Play-In Tournament despite a bevy of injuries.
My Bulls vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks expect an ugly slog on Thursday, March 5.
He has gone back and forth this season between the starting lineup and the bench, returning to the former in the last two games. Jones may be there the rest of the season, as Chicago's roster was thinned at the trade deadline.
Jones is just one part of why theBulls have cashed five straight Unders ahead of tonight's matchup with the Phoenix Suns.
Chicago’s rotation is so limited that a bench piece is now tasked with initiating the offense — and it hasn’t gone well.
Bulls vs Suns same-game parlay
Jones is a competent floor general, but this role is simply too big for him these days.
He has cleared these points prop just twice in the seven games since the All-Star Break, though he handed out six assists three times in those seven games.
In fact, this exact SGP would have cashed twice in that stretch.
Bulls vs Suns SGP
Under 225
Tre Jones Under 13.5 points
Tre Jones Over 5.5 assists
Our "from downtown" SGP: Suns Cruise
The Bulls have lost 12 of their last 13 games outright.
Bulls vs Suns SGP
Under 225
Tre Jones Under 13.5 points
Tre Jones Over 5.5 assists
Suns moneyline
Bulls vs Suns odds
Spread: Bulls +10.5 (-110) | Suns -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls +375 | Suns -500
Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)
Bulls vs Suns betting trend to know
The Bulls have not only cashed five straight Unders; they have done so by an average of 11.1 points compared to bookmakers’ expectations. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Suns.
How to watch Bulls vs Suns
Location
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Tip-off
9:00 p.m. ET
TV
CHSN, KTVK
Bulls vs Suns latest injuries
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NEW YORK — It’s no secret that Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a reputation for baiting opposing players into contact to get to the line. Add Knicks coach Mike Brown to the list of opposing coaches who bemoan it.
After New York’s 103-100 loss against the Thunder Wednesday, March 4, Brown expressed his displeasure with officiating during the game, and in particular the crew’s management of Gilgeous-Alexander’s play.
“SGA, he’s a tough cover,” Brown told reporters after the game. “And he does a great job of convincing the referees — probably better than anybody in the league — that he’s getting hit.”
Brown’s criticism, in part, stemmed from a controversial no-call that prompted Brown to be called for his first technical foul since he joined the Knicks in July.
The play came with 2:02 left in the first quarter, when Gilgeous-Alexander cut to the basket and crashed into Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, before gathering his dribble and putting in an uncontested layup.
Brunson appeared to have a clear, established position, but officials did not call any foul — offensive or defensive — on the play. Gilgeous-Alexander, at the time, had already picked up his second foul and the no-call would’ve been his third, possibly prompting him to sit extended minutes on the bench.
Immediately after the play, Brown gestured emphatically and berated the closest official, Brian Forte. Play continued and Brown didn’t relent with his arguing, eventually drawing the technical foul with 1:40 left to play. Brown appeared to make light contact with Forte during the interaction, but he remained in the game.
“You guys saw the play,” Brown said. “SGA had two fouls, and Jalen was there. And he ran him over … I just don’t understand why that wasn’t a no-call. But that should’ve been his third, the bucket shouldn’t have counted, and we should’ve gone the other way with the basketball.
“To see that, knowing that Jalen is standing there, and he’s putting his body on the line, and our guys are fighting their asses off to try to win the ball game — it didn’t sit well with me, obviously.”
The non-call drew a sharp reaction from social media, with actor and comedian Ben Stiller, a notable Knicks fan, leading the charge.
“This is abhorrent,” Stiller wrote in a message posted shortly after the no-call.
Gilgeous-Alexander would convert the technical free throw and finished the game with 26 points on 9-of-16 shooting, including a perfect 7-of-7 from the line.
Last year’s Most Valuable Player, Gilgeous-Alexander is tied for third this season in free throw attempts per game, with 9.2.
“That early in the game, I trust Coach, just because there’s still so much time to decide the game, so if I need to come out, I’d come out,” Gilgeous-Alexander said when asked about playing with the two early fouls. “Nothing’s worse than having three fouls in the first quarter, so usually, they’ll take me out if I get two quick ones.
“But, yeah, I was able to control my foul count the rest of the game.”
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