This story originally published March 19, 2026.
From completely unrecognized to a superstar.
That has been the story of Illinois men's basketball freshman guard Keaton Wagler, who went from an under-recruited 3-star prospect to the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and likely NBA draft lottery pick.
Wagler has led veteran-laden, European-influenced Illinois to the 2026 Final Four. He's averaging a team-leading 17.9 points, breaking the freshman record previously held by Cory Bradford (1998-99). He scored 25 points in Illinois' Elite Eight win over Iowa, leading the Illini to their first Final Four sicne 2005. He also leads the team with 4.3 assists per game and is third on the team with 5.0 rebounds per game.
Perhaps most notably, he leads the team in minutes played, with 33.8 per game.
His immediate success has surprised even the people who have been in his corner since Day 1, such as his high school coach David Birch at Shawnee Mission Northwest (Kan.) High School.
"The only thing that surprises me is he looks the same at Illinois as he did in the Sunflower League in Kansas," Birch told USA TODAY Sports. "The way he's playing now is the way he played for us for four years. The only thing that surprises me is how quickly his game translated."
While Illinois coach Brad Underwood was already singing Wagler's praises after a strong summer, it was still fair to say the scrawny 6-6 guard was an unknown. That was evident to Wagler when Illinois honored its last Final Four team, that 2005 team, during the first timeout of the first quarter of their season opener against Western Michigan on Aug. 29, 2025.
Deron Williams, Luther Head and Dee Brown were among the stars honored from the 2005 NCAA runner-up team that finished 37-2. Wagler was just happy to pose for pictures and talk to them for a few minutes.
"No one really knew who I was at that point," Wagler told USA TODAY Sports. "For everyone, I was just a freshman who they didn't know what to expect."
Wagler changed everyone's tune, and quickly. He earned a start in the season opener for the Fighting Illini on Nov. 3, 2025, against Jackson State: In his college debut, he scored 18 points, adding six rebounds, four assists and two steals in 27 minutes.
In his second game, Wagler scored 22 points in 28 minutes against Florida Gulf Coast. He scored 11 against Texas Tech. After just a few games, he had already caught the attention of former NBA star Peja Stojakovic — the father of Illinois teammate Andrej Stojakovic.
"After a couple of games, he came and dapped me up," Wagler said. Though he didn't have the opportunity to watch Peja Stojakovic growing up — Wagler was born in 2007, and Stojakovic's career ended in 2011 — he knew the magnitude of receiving acknowledgment from the 2011 NBA champion and three-time NBA All-Star.
"It just showed I was going in the right direction. It gives me a lot of confidence to know that I've been playing [well enough] that I've earned the respect of Peja Stojakovic," Wagler said.
Keaton Wagler NBA Draft stock rise
USA TODAY Sports has projected Wagler as the No. 8 overall pick to in its most recent mock draft.
Likely, no scouts predicted Wagler as an NBA prospect after his freshman season. In fact, entering his senior year of high school, Wagler only had offers from mid-majors such as Colorado State and Drake. It wasn't until Aug. 22, 2024, that he received offers from Minnesota and Illinois. He committed to the Fighting Illini a month later.
Indeed, Birch figured Wagler had all the skills to be an NBA player, but it would take him three to four years to hone his skills.
It took just one phone call for Birch to change his opinion about Wagler's NBA outlook.
"It was Oklahoma City," Birch said. "The way they scout and how well they've done building their roster, just in terms of draft, the way they evaluate players, the way they develop players, and the fact that that was the first one to call, kind of sounded the alarms that, 'Hey, this guy's going to be an NBA player, for sure.'"
Keaton Wagler's transformation
While Wagler did find early success against lower-level teams, his first three games against high-major teams in Texas Tech, Alabama and Connecticut yielded 11-, eight- and three-point performances, respectively. In those games, he shot 6-of-21 (28.5%) from the field. He fouled out of the game against the Crimson Tide.
Through his first eight games, Wagler was averaging just 13.5 points per game on 8.8 field goal attempts per game, with three single-digit point games. Over the final 24 games, he averaged 19.4 points on 13 shots per game.
"At the start [of the season], I was playing off the ball more," Wagler said. "I got switched to more on the ball after our UConn game and that gave me a lot of confidence that the coaches trusted me to have the ball in my hands and make plays."
Keaton Wagler's breakout performance vs Purdue
Sure, Wagler had 20-point performances against NCAA Tournament teams in Ohio State and Missouri in December, but he saved his biggest performance for a bigger stage.
Against Purdue on Jan. 24, Wagler scored 46 points in an 88-82 win for Illinois. He shot an efficient 13-of-17 from the field and splashed down nine of his 11 3-point attempts. The 46 points were the most points by a visiting player in Mackey Arena history, and the most points by a Big Ten player this season.
"Everyone was talking about how good he had played, but then you go put up 46 at one of the toughest places to play," Birch said. "The [hype] went up a whole other level."
Of course, for Birch, those kinds of performances were nothing new for the 2025 Gatorade Kansas Player of the Year and the 2024-25 Kansas MaxPreps High School Basketball Player of the Year.
Shawnee Mission Northwest won the state title in Wagler's junior season and repeated as champs in 2024-25 when he was a senior.
"What's crazy about that performance was that he did that same kind of thing for us the year before," Birch said. "We had our 7-foot center, who signed with Michigan State, Ethan Taylor, out for four games. And it was our toughest four-game stretch of the season.
"He averaged 30 points a game, 14 rebounds and seven assists at that time. We won all those games. That's what he's doing for Illinois."
Against Michigan on Feb. 27, Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg took up guarding Wagler. But he was guarding him the full length of the court, forcing the ball out of Wagler's hands.
"He was picking me up 94 feet the whole game," Wagler said after the loss to the Wolverines. "He was getting physical, getting through ball screens, just pressuring me at all times, and making it hard."
He admitted that it was a shock for him.
"It's kind of crazy," Just seeing the scouting and how much the scouting report has changed from the beginning of the season to now. Most teams put their top defender on me and try to guard me super physically, not let me catch the ball, guard me 94 feet, just to wear me down.
"I think it just shows the respect that other teams and coaches have for me, and how good a player I've transformed into this season."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Inside Keaton Wagler's rise at Illinois, from unknown to freshman star