The Lakers had a chance to ‘prove it’ against the Nuggets – instead they proved they don’t belong

An image collage containing 3 images, Image 1 shows JJ Redick reacts while arguing with referee Ed Malloy during a basketball game, Image 2 shows Luka Dončić of the Los Angeles Lakers in a yellow and purple jersey looking up with his mouth slightly open, Image 3 shows LeBron James in his Lakers uniform smiles while on the basketball court

The Los Angeles Lakers entered Thursday night on a three-game winning streak. The standings were tightening like a vise. One win over the Denver Nuggets and suddenly the Lakers would climb past them and into fifth place in the Western Conference. 

A statement opportunity was in front of them. 

A measuring stick game. 

A chance to show that this version of the Lakers, fully healthy now for the first time all season, belongs in the same conversation as the conference’s real contenders. 

After Thursday’s loss, the Lakers are now 14–19 against teams above .500. Against losing teams. AP

Instead, the Lakers walked out onto the floor at Ball Arena and played like a team that didn’t even realize the exam had already begun. 

Denver sprinted out to an 11-0 lead before the Lakers had even broken a sweat. Seconds later the score was 15-2 and the Nuggets had already seized control of the game. They would go on to a wire-to-wire 120-113 win while the Lakers spent the rest of the night chasing shadows. 

“I didn’t think we started the game with a sense of urgency,” Lakers head coach J.J. Redick admitted afterward. “We talked about the importance of this game pregame. It’s difficult against good teams to spot them 13 points.” 

That may be the most polite way imaginable to describe what actually happened in this one.

The truth is more simple: the Lakers blinked.

When the lights got bright against a team that matters, and an opportunity to prove they belonged, they shrank.

And frankly, that has become the defining pattern of this season.

After Thursday’s loss, the Lakers are now 14–19 against teams above .500. Against losing teams. They’re a comfortable 23–6.

In other words, they feast on the league’s soft underbelly and stumble the moment they face resistance.

Remember that three-game winning-streak? Here’s how it went in a nutshell:

Beating an injury-ravaged Golden State Warriors team.

Handling the Sacramento Kings, the team with the worst record in the NBA.

Needing a fourth quarter comeback to dispatch of the last-place New Orleans Pelicans.

Those are expected wins.

The Los Angeles Lakers entered Thursday night on a three-game winning streak. AP

Contenders do that in their sleep.

But when the Lakers see the real giants of the Western Conference — the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder, the rising San Antonio Spurs, the relentless Houston Rockets, the disciplined Minnesota Timberwolves, or the former champion Denver Nuggets — the result usually looks the same.

Close enough to tease hope.

The standings were tightening like a vise. NBAE via Getty Images

Not good enough to matter.

Thursday night followed that exact script.

The Lakers trailed by double digits for most of the game yet somehow clawed their way back into striking distance. With under two minutes left, Austin Reaves stepped to the free throw line with a chance to tie the game.

Miss.

One win over the Denver Nuggets and suddenly the Lakers would climb past them and into fifth place in the Western Conference.  NBAE via Getty Images

Moments later, Marcus Smart got two wide-open three-pointers that would have tied it.

Miss. Miss.

Then came the final blow: a defensive rebound the Lakers absolutely had to secure — and didn’t. Nikola Jokic bullied his way to the basket for a layup that pushed Denver ahead by five, the final dagger in a game that felt lost long before the buzzer sounded.

LeBron James, who broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record for the most field goals made in NBA history in the first quarter, summed up the loss with veteran simplicity.

“We gave a great effort. We had an opportunity at the end of the game. Credit to them,” said James.

Redick pointed to the details that mattered.

“The start was detrimental to our team… we missed five layups in the second half. We lost free throws by 14,” he said. “Both of those things really hurt us.”

Those are the kinds of numbers that expose a team’s margin for error.

Championship teams don’t give away those possessions.

They choke the life out of them.

To the Lakers’ credit, there were small flickers of fight buried inside the wreckage.

Jaxon Hayes was excellent filling in for injured center DeAndre Ayton, finishing 8-for-10 from the field and battling Jokic for 28 minutes.

A chance to show that this version of the Lakers, fully healthy now for the first time all season, belongs in the same conversation as the conference’s real contenders.  NBAE via Getty Images

“I thought he was terrific tonight,” said Redick of Hayes, who likely will start at center on Friday on the second night of a back-to-back. “I definitely have a lot of confidence in him.”

Hayes, meanwhile, blamed himself for the loss and was honest about the mountain he had to climb in guarding the three-time NBA MVP. 

“He’s 350 pounds and has the best footwork I’ve ever seen in my life,” Hayes said of Jokic. “He’s the best player in the world right now.”

Denver sprinted out to an 11-0 lead before the Lakers had even broken a sweat. AP

That last sentence might be the most honest moment of the entire night.

Because while the Lakers are still trying to figure out who they are, the Nuggets already know.

They are a machine built around one of the best players on planet Earth.

Jokic had yet another triple-double with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 13 assists. Jamal Murray had 28 too. 

The Lakers, by contrast, are a team still learning how to fit the puzzle pieces of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and a 41-year-old LeBron James together. 

That trio had the opportunity to prove why they belong in the championship conversation.

The Lakers, by contrast, are a team still learning how to fit the puzzle pieces of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and a 41-year-old LeBron James together.  NBAE via Getty Images

Instead, the standings continue to whisper an uncomfortable truth.

The No. 6 seed might be this team’s ceiling.

They are clearly not operating in the same stratosphere as the Thunder or Spurs. They were humiliated by Houston on Christmas Day. They lost in five games to Minnesota in the first round of last year’s playoffs. And now they’ve come up short against Denver in a game that could have changed the entire narrative of their season.

Pretenders don’t always get blown out.

Sometimes they hang around just long enough to make you believe.

Then the final two minutes arrive — and the truth shows up.

The Lakers’ schedule won’t offer them much mercy, but it does provide them with more opportunities to prove they belong. Four of their next six games are against the Timberwolves, Nuggets again, and a back-to-back with the Rockets. 

Win them all, and they’ll likely find themselves in third place in the standings.

Jaxon Hayes embraced the challenge.

“I like a challenge,” he said.  “If you don’t like a challenge, then why are you here?

That’s admirable.

But liking the challenge and beating it are two very different things.

Right now, the Lakers are still learning that lesson.

And until they start winning these prove-it games, the Western Conference already has its answer.


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Utah Jazz Reacts Survey: All-Star and Tanking Questions

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - MARCH 2: Keyonte George #3 of the Utah Jazz signals to the bench after making a three-point shot against the Denver Nuggets during the first half of their game at the Delta Center on March 2, 2026 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NBA. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Jazz fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The Utah Jazz are at the tail-end of their stretch of tanking they’ve done to maximize their upcoming window. They’re going to be good next season, the question is how good? In this week’s Utah Jazz Reacts, I wanted to ask two things. First, we know that the Jazz will be good next year, but who will be the best player for the Jazz? That’s why I was curious to see who Jazz fans think will be the most likely All-Star on the team.

The second question I had had to do with Adam Silver’s favorite thing, tanking. There’s still a good chunk of the season left. Is there enough left for the Jazz to get into the bottom-four of the league?

Mi Hyang Lee has a bogey-free 66 to lead LPGA in China

HAINAN ISLAND, China (AP) — Mi Hyang Lee played bogey-free in windy conditions on Friday and posted a 6-under 66, giving her a one-shot lead in the Blue Bay LPGA going into the weekend as the South Korean chases her first LPGA title in more than eight years.

The wind wasn't as strong as what Lee faced in the opening round, and she managed to keep a clean card while making birdies on three of the four par 5s at Jian Lake Blue Bay.

Lee was one shot ahead of Yu Liu (66), the former Duke player who is trying to join Shanshan Feng as the only Chinese player to win Blue Bay since the tournament began in 2014.

Auston Kim, the American coming off a tie for third last week in Singapore, made eagle on the par-5 eighth hole and shot 68. She was two shots behind.

“The wind was blowing more than I expected this morning, but still better than yesterday afternoon,” said Lee, who was at 11-under 133. “Pretty similar direction, as well, so it wasn't that hard for me.”

Key for Lee were the undulating greens. She focused on hitting the right section of the greens for easier putts, and chipping instead of putting when just off the green to navigate the slopes.

“That's why I make a lot of birdies and no bogeys,” she said.

The contours in the greens were perplexing, and at times frustrating, for Kim down the stretch as some of her approach shots took unexpected bounces and left her a long way from the cup or tricky putts to set up pars.

After a hot start, including the eagle on No. 8, she made her only bogey on the ninth and then had to settle for pars until a birdie on the par-5 18th. Even so, she was in the thick of contention for the second straight week with a chance at her first LPGA title.

“Heading into tomorrow and heading into the weekend my game is feeling good. I know what I can control and chasing is good,” Kim said. “It'll be fun out here.”

Former Women's PGA champion Ruoning Yin of China had the first hole-in-one of the year on the LPGA tour with an 8-iron from 153 yards on the par-3 seventh, her 16th hole of the round. She is six shots behind at the halfway point.

Blue Bay LPGA wraps up a three-tournament swing through Asia for the LPGA with the weakest field of the three. It follows a week in Singapore that had nine of the top 10 in the women’s world ranking, missing only Nelly Korda, who again skipped the Asia swing.

___

AP golf: https://apnews.com/hub/golf

The Sixers’ house of cards is teetering

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 4: Andre Drummond #1 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts against the Utah Jazz at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 4, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Jazz 106-102. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Could it really have been only five weeks ago that Joel Embiid stood before reporters in the Sixers’ locker room and offered something resembling a rallying cry?

We all remember it. How on Jan. 29, with the trade deadline looming, Embiid said the following: “I love all the guys that are in here. I think we got a shot.”

He allowed that he didn’t know what management might do in the days ahead, but reiterated his affection for his teammates, saying he was surrounded by “a good group of guys.”

“Vibes are great,” he added. “In the past we’ve been ducking the (luxury) tax, so hopefully we think about improving, because we got a chance.”

The Sixers had just beaten the Sacramento Kings, their second consecutive victory in a string that would reach five and lift them eight games over .500 for the first time all season.

Two days later, Paul George was suspended. A week later, Daryl Morey took a giant step in improving a championship-level roster, only it turns out it was in Oklahoma City. That’s where Morey shipped second-year guard Jared McCain. And where McCain has been tearing it up ever since.

(At his post-deadline presser, Morey issued a quote that seems destined to live in infamy: “I’m quite confident that we were selling high.” Put that alongside “For who? For what?” Or, to be sport-specific, “We owe you one.”)

Those good vibes? Gone. That shot Embiid talked about? A blank, as it turns out.

Let’s be real: These Sixers were always a house of cards, given the tenuous health of Embiid and George. The slightest breeze was likely to topple the whole thing, and they’ve been hit with gale-force winds, some of their own creation.

Nick Nurse couldn’t figure out a way to use McCain, even as the coach was wearing out Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe? Morey couldn’t figure out a way to reinforce a threadbare bench, as opposed to shipping out a promising 21-year-old guard who would be under team control for years to come?

Hey, but at least he attempted to play footsy with Kawhi Leonard at the deadline, smh. And that tax, man – surely Morey’s boss is happy to avoid that bill.

Scant consolation for the team’s followers.

Since beating Phoenix on Feb. 7 to improve to 30-22, the Sixers are 4-6. All six losses have been by 10 points or more, with two of them, including Tuesday’s 131-91 drubbing by San Antonio, by 40 or more. That brought to three the number of home games they have dropped by that margin this season, something that had never before happened to any team.

Given all that, Wednesday’s four-point victory over the tank-tastic Jazz was hardly reassuring.

Embiid is out again, this time with an oblique injury. Edgecombe suffered a back injury in the loss to the Spurs, and sat out against Utah. George isn’t due back until March 25, and Kelly Oubre Jr. missed the games against the Spurs and Jazz because of illness.

“We’ve got guys out,” Maxey said after the San Antonio debacle. “Time for guys to step up.”

At least Jabari Walker understood the assignment. Walker, a backup forward in his first year in Philly after three in Portland, scored 20 garbage-time points against the Spurs. And he said afterward he is fully cognizant of the fact that fringe guys like himself are always being evaluated, no matter when they play.

“It’s not the first thing on my mind, but it is one of the things I think about,” he said. “I think what’s first is just showing the coach what you’re playing for, and showing the team that you could have impacted tonight – just put the pressure on them, make them re-think things and think, ‘OK, maybe he could have impacted in some ways.’”

Moreover, he added, “There are 29 other teams, and it is a business, so you’d be surprised to know who’s watching, how many eyes you have on you. So just play hard every rep and be yourself.”

His focus was not to go home to bed, but rather “just kinda let the games blend together and carry this over to tomorrow” – which he then did, making his first six shots against the Jazz en route to a second-straight 20-point outing.

While that is a promising development for the Sixers, the overall outlook is far less so. With 20 games left in the regular season, they are 34-28 and in a loss-column tie with Orlando for the East’s sixth seed (i.e., the last non-play-in slot). Miami is a game back.

Of the remaining games, 12 are on the road. That might not be the worst thing, given the Sixers’ 17-12 record away from home, but eight are against teams that will be in the playoffs or are in position to get there, including the next two – Saturday against Atlanta and Monday against Cleveland. Beyond that are visits to Detroit, Denver, Charlotte, Miami, San Antonio and Houston.

Buckle up. Because the winds continue to blow. And it’s all the Sixers can do to reconstruct their house of cards.

Celtics' Jayson Tatum to make long-awaited return from Achilles injury vs. Mavs

Celtics' Jayson Tatum to make long-awaited return from Achilles injury vs. Mavs originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

It’s been 298 days since Jayson Tatum last played for the Boston Celtics. That streak is likely to end Friday night at TD Garden.

The Celtics star is expected to make his 2025-26 season debut Friday against the Dallas Mavericks, as the team upgraded him from questionable to available.

Follow NBC Sports Boston’s live coverage of Tatum’s return here.

Tatum has been sidelined since May 12, when he ruptured his Achilles tendon in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Knicks.

Tatum will return to a Celtics team that has vastly overachieved in his absence, entering Friday’s game with a 41-21 record and the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference despite parting with several key members of their 2024 championship squad.

Tatum will steal the spotlight, but there’s another great storyline Friday night: Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg, who grew up a Celtics fan in Newport, Maine, will play his first NBA game at TD Garden.

Mavericks-Celtics will tip-off at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT. Coverage begins on NBC Sports Boston at 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT.

Sixers injury updates on Embiid, Edgecombe and Oubre

Sixers injury updates on Embiid, Edgecombe and Oubre  originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

CAMDEN, N.J. — Joel Embiid’s post-practice footwear was telling. 

The Sixers’ star center wore sandals following the team’s practice Friday and watched the suspended Paul George play 1-on-1 with two-way contract player Dalen Terry.

Needless to say, Embiid is not on the verge of a return from his strained right oblique. A Sixers official said he’s begun individual strength and conditioning work and will be re-evaluated in approximately one week. 

“They’ve said it’s feeling a little bit better,” Sixers head coach Nick Nurse said. “I don’t think we’re too far away from getting on court. Again, just getting that a little more pain-free. Being able to get his arms up so he can get on the court and actually shoot I think is what we’re waiting for, but I don’t think we’re too far away.”

After a narrow win Wednesday over the Jazz, the Sixers sit at 13-16 without Embiid. His last action came in their Feb. 26 win vs. the Heat.

VJ Edgecombe (lumbar contusion) did not practice and had an individual on-court workout, the team official said. Kelly Oubre Jr. (illness) was back in the mix. 

The 34-28 Sixers enter Friday night sixth in the Eastern Conference. Slipping below sixth would put the Sixers in play-in tournament territory. The team holds a half-game lead over both the Magic and Heat. Next up is a trip to Atlanta to face the 32-31 Hawks, who sport a 3-0 mark this year against the Sixers. 

With Embiid still out, Adem Bona again looks set for a large role. 

The second-year big man both started and closed over Andre Drummond vs. the Jazz. He posted 12 points on 6-for-8 shooting and five rebounds in 29 minutes and threw down a critical late put-back dunk.

In terms of availability, Bona’s been one of the Sixers’ most dependable players. He’s appeared in 26 consecutive games. The zealous shot blocker has also seemed to make progress lately at curbing cheap fouls and understanding how he can chip in offensively.

“I don’t really have any next steps,” Nurse said, “other than how long can he sustain it? How long can he do what he’s doing, which has just been being disruptive on defense, blocking shots, providing tremendous energy, providing a chance for us as a staff to do a myriad of coverages where we can throw different things at people because of his disruptiveness and speed? Do we probably need him to up his defensive rebounding? Yes, but he’s on the list with everybody else on the roster on that. He can do that with his great athleticism as well. 

“And I think the offensive stuff right now is fairly simple for him. It’s lob dunks, it’s dump-off dunks, it’s running the floor. If there’s a put-back here or there … would like to see a little bit more offensive rebounding. He does well at it, but that’s something you can never do enough of.”

Later, as he detailed the nuances of when the Sixers are fine with Bona fouling, Nurse had another thought.

“One thing I wish he’d do is block some more in play. Sometimes he swats them into the 19th row,” Nurse said with a smile. “It’s hard to go the other way when it’s in the bleachers. That’s asking a lot, I know, but that may be something we work on for next year.” 

Heat vs Hornets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Charlotte Hornets’ mid-season transformation has the team on track to compete for spot in the playoffs, and they’ll look to add a key victory over the visiting Miami Heat on Friday.

Charlotte has won six straight games, and my Heat vs. Hornets predictions expect them to extend that win streak and cover the spread as the home favorite.

Here are my best free NBA picks for this Eastern Conference showdown on Friday, March 6.

Heat vs Hornets prediction

Heat vs Hornets best bet: Hornets -7 (-110)

The Charlotte Hornets have won six in a row and covered in nine straight, and I expect them to extend those streaks with a comfortable win at home over the Miami Heat.

No team has been better ATS than the Hornets over the last 25 games, with a 19-6 record. Charlotte boasts a monstrous +308 point differential in that span, easily the best mark in the Association.

Charlotte’s 18-12 ATS mark at home is third-best in the NBA. The Hornets are 8-2 ATS across their last 10 home games, and have outscored opponents by 8.3 points per game.

Heat vs Hornets same-game parlay

The Hornets sport the sixth-best defensive rating (109.9) across the last 25 games. In that span, the Heat's 112.2 defensive rating ranks 10th-best.

Charlotte has hit the Under at home more times than any other team this season, doing so in 21 of 30 games at Spectrum Center.

LaMelo Ball is averaging 12.1 rebounds + assists on the season, and he's recorded 12+ in 29 of 53 games. He's reached that mark in five of his last eight and totaled exactly 11 in one more. Ball finished with 17 rebounds + assists in his first meeting with Miami.

Heat vs Hornets SGP

  • Hornets -7
  • Under 229.5
  • LaMelo Ball Over 11.5 rebounds + assists

Our "from downtown" SGP: Sharing the love

Tyler Herro has logged seven appearances since returning from a lengthy absence. Over his last six, he's dished 4.8 assists per game and handed out 4+ in four of them.

Over the last eight games, Charlotte has allowed the fourth-fewest points in the paint, which means Bam Adebayo could be forced to operate more as a facilitator than a scorer. He’s recorded 3+ assists in 31 of 55 games on the season, including four of his last seven.

Moussa Diabate has displayed elite playmaking skills as of late, handing out at least two assists in four of his last five games, while averaging four assists in that span.

Heat vs Hornets SGP

  • Hornets -7
  • LaMelo Ball Over 7.5 assists
  • Moussa Diabate Over 1.5 assists
  • Tyler Herro Over 3.5 assists
  • Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists

Heat vs Hornets odds

  • Spread: Miami +7 (-110) | Charlotte -7 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Miami +240 | Charlotte -300
  • Over/Under: Over 229.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)

Heat vs Hornets betting trend to know

The Hornets have covered the spread in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.90 Units / 42% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hornets.

How to watch Heat vs Hornets

LocationSpectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
DateFriday, March 6, 2026
Tip-off7:00 p.m. ET
TVFDSN Sun, FDSN SE-Charlotte

Heat vs Hornets latest injuries

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Mavericks vs. Celtics predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for March 6

A mere ten months after tearing his Achilles, Jayson Tatum is expected to make his return to the court for the Boston Celtics (41-21) at TD Garden against the Dallas Mavericks (21-41) tonight.

 

Jaylen Brown and Boston (41-21) have thrived without the All-NBA forward. The Celtics lead the Atlantic Division by a game and a half over the Knicks. No doubt the addition of the six-time All-Star Tatum is a tremendous add to the lineup, but how long will it take the team to adjust to his return? How many minutes will he assume? How will he fit in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation?

 

Conversely, the Dallas Mavericks arrive in Boston sitting twelfth in the Western Conference and looking to snap a five-game losing streak. A bad team that has been especially bad on the road, the Mavericks did get a dose of good news yesterday with the return of Cooper Flagg. The standout rookie scored 18 points in 26 minutes last night in the Mavs’ 115-114 loss to the Magic in Orlando. Tonight will be a homecoming of sorts for the native of Newport, Maine.

 

Flagg was outstanding when these teams met earlier this season on February 3 albeit in a 110-100 loss, scoring 36 points and grabbing nine rebounds in 37 minutes. Jaylen Brown scored 33 points and pulled down 11 rebounds to pace the Celtics. Payton Pritchard added 26 off the bench.

 

The Celtics were blown out in their last game losing 118-89 at home to the surprising and surging Charlotte Hornets. As mentioned earlier, the Mavs were in action last night in Orlando, losing 115-114.

 

Ultimately, this game is all about the return of Tatum and how the Celtics handle all the emotions in the building and his minutes.

 

Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

After 24 years, the NBA is back on NBC and Peacock, combining the nostalgia of an iconic era with the innovative future of basketball coverage. The NBA on NBC YouTube channel delivers fans must-see highlights, analysis, and exclusive and unique content. 

 

Game Details and How to Watch Live: Mavericks at Celtics

 

  • Date: Friday, March 6, 2026
  • Time: 7PM EST
  • Site: TD Garden
  • City: Boston, MA
  • Network/Streaming: ESPN

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

 

Game Odds: Mavericks at Celtics

 

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

 

  • Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks (-1000), Boston Celtics (+650)
  • Spread: Celtics -14.5
  • Total: 224.5 points

 

This game opened Celtics -15.5 with the Total set at 225.5.

 

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!

 

Expected Starting Lineups: Mavericks at Celtics

 

Dallas Mavericks

  • G Cooper Flagg
  • SG Max Christie
  • SF Khris Middleton
  • PF Daniel Gafford
  • C PJ Washington

Boston Celtics

  • PG Derrick White
  • SG Baylor Scheierman
  • SF Jaylen Brown
  • PF Jayson Tatum
  • C Neemias Queta

Injury Report: Mavericks at Celtics

Dallas Mavericks

  • Marvin Bagley III (neck) has been ruled OUT of tonight’s game
  • Brandon Williams (quad) has been ruled OUT of tonight’s game

Boston Celtics

  • Jayson Tatum (Achilles) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game

Important stats, trends and insights: Mavericks at Celtics

  • The Celtics are 20-10 at home this season
  • The Mavericks are 7-20 on the road this season
  • The Celtics are 3-25-1 ATS this season / 15-15 at home
  • The Mavericks are 27-34 ATS this season / 10-17 on the road
  • The OVER has cashed in 28 of the Mavericks’ 61 games this season (28-33)
  • The OVER has cashed in just 22 of Boston’s 62 games this season (22-40)
  • The Celtics are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Mavericks
  • In 6 games since the All-Star Break, Jaylen Brown is averaging 25.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game
  • Nikola Vucevic has pulled down a total of just 9 rebounds over his last 2 games

 

Rotoworld Best Bet

 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s Mavericks and Celtics’ game:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Celtics -14.5 ATS
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 224.5

 

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!

 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

 

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Aicher finishes second in downhill to cut Vonn and Shiffrin leads in World Cup standings

VAL DI FASSA, Italy (AP) — With neither injured Lindsey Vonn nor Mikaela Shiffrin starting a World Cup downhill on Friday, Emma Aicher seized her chance to cut the American superstars’ leads in the season-long standings.

Aicher, the Olympic downhill silver medalist, placed second — just 0.01 behind first-time winner Laura Pirovano, pushing Olympic champion Breezy Johnson down to third — and reduced Vonn’s lead in the downhill points race to just 14 with two races left.

Vonn’s hugely successful World Cup season at age 41 was ended by a nasty crash one month ago at the Milan Cortina Olympics that wrecked her left leg.

Aicher’s 80 World Cup points Friday also reduced Shiffrin’s lead in the overall standings to 139 ahead of another downhill scheduled Saturday.

The tightening race for the giant crystal globe trophy with eight races left could see Shiffrin make a rare start in a super-G Sunday. Chasing a sixth career World Cup overall title. Shiffrin has so far accrued all her points in slalom and giant slalom.

Friday’s race was a replacement for the downhill five weeks ago at Swiss resort Crans-Montana, abandoned after Vonn crashed and tore the ACL in her left knee.

Pirovano was a popular winner on home snow getting a first win, also a first podium finish, in her 125th World Cup start.

The 28-year-old Italian has been a model of consistency reeling off top-10 results this season and sixth place in the Olympic downhill at nearby Cortina d’Ampezzo.

An elusive first victory lifted Pirovano to third in the downhill standings, trailing 64 behind Vonn and 50 back of Aicher.

Pirovano was among the few racers to top 130 kph (81 mph) on a sunny, still and freezing day that was ideal for the marquee speed discipline.

Two former Olympic champions dropped out of contention after losing time on the bottom half of the 2.3-kilometer (1 2/5-mile) course.

Corinne Suter, the 2022 Olympics gold medalist, looked set to match her win last weekend at Soldeu, Andorra, but placed eighth, 0.49 behind Pirovano.

Sofia Goggia, the 2018 champion and bronze medalist at Cortina last month, was 0.90 back in 17th.

___

AP skiing: https://apnews.com/hub/alpine-skiing

The Suns needed urgency against the Bulls. Instead they got a layup line

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MARCH 05: Tre Jones #30 of the Chicago Bulls lays up shot ahead of Oso Ighodaro #11 of the Phoenix Suns during the second half of the NBA game at Mortgage Matchup Center on March 05, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Bulls defeated the Suns 105-103. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Two storylines arrived at the same building on Thursday night. Two very different roads that somehow crossed at the same intersection.

On one side, you had the Chicago Bulls. A team whose fan base is staring at the draft lottery like it is a lighthouse in the fog. They want losses. They want ping pong balls. They want the chance to grab a high pick in what everyone says is a loaded draft class. Development is not the priority right now. Evaluation is not the priority either. Injuries have piled up, tank mode is humming along quietly in the background, and they rolled into Phoenix ready to play hard, although not exactly carrying the burden of expectation.

Then you have the Phoenix Suns.

They are a team with injuries of their own. A team that has spent the entire season clawing and scratching to stay above the Play-In line, but cannot seem to overcome it. A team that built its identity on effort, disruption, and the belief that if they played hard enough for forty eight minutes, they could walk off the floor with a win.

Home court. Stakes on the table. A game they needed. And somehow the script flipped.

Because the Suns looked like the team that had nothing to play for. They looked like the team that could shrug and find a silver lining in a loss. The defense was abhorrent. Truly. It felt like watching a layup line that never ended. Chicago poured in 68 points in the paint, and if you were sitting in the arena, it probably felt like 120. Every drive found daylight. Every cut felt clean.

Collin Sexton treated the defense like a set of traffic cones. Tre Jones joined the party. The two guards combined for 51 points and only three made threes between them. They did the damage the old-fashioned way. They attacked downhill, over and over again, straight to the rim. The pattern repeated itself like a broken record. Chicago drives. Layup. Phoenix fires from three. Miss. Chicago rebounds. Pushes. Attacks again. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

This Suns team built a reputation this season on making life uncomfortable for opponents. They swarm passing lanes. They pressure the ball. They turn possessions chaotic. None of that showed up. And on the other end, the offense drifted into quicksand. Phoenix shot 28.3% from deep on 48 attempts. The rhythm never arrived. The energy never arrived either. They never led in the game against one of the worst teams in the league.

Yes, it is one game in an eighty-two game season. There is barely time to process it before the next tip off arrives. Another struggling opponent waits on the schedule tonight. Although a small whisper of concern creeps into the room after a night like that. Because when you fail to handle your business once, the margin for error tightens immediately. And this team is fighting for something real right now. Playoff positioning. Stability in the standings.

You cannot sleepwalk through games like that when the stakes are sitting right in front of you.

Bright Side Baller Season Standings

It has taken far too long for Oso Ighodaro to notch his second Bright Side Baller award. He has been one of many genuine, sun-soaked surprises of this season. But in a way, the delay fits exactly who and what he is.

He is the guy who doesn’t always scream for the spotlight. He doesn’t hunt the stats that lead to the headlines or the hardware. Instead, he just does the work. He does the little things. The screen assists, the dirty work in the paint, the rotations that coaches love and casual fans overlook. He is the glue holding the second unit together, an annoying fly on the wall for opposing offenses.

Bright Side Baller Nominees

Game 62 against the Bulls. Here are your nominees:

Devin Booker
27 points (9-of-21, 2-of-7 3PT), 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 4 turnovers, +2 +/-

Grayson Allen
21 points (6-of-19, 5-of-16 3PT), 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, 2 turnovers, +9 +/-

Oso Ighodaro
10 points (5-of-5), 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 1 turnover, +3 +/-

Amir Coffey
12 points (3-of-4, 2-of-2 3PT), 4 rebounds, 4-of-7 FT, +3 +/-

Ryan Dunn
6 points (3-of-7), 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, 1 block, +7 +/-

Jalen Green
12 points (5-of-20, 1-of-8 3PT), 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover, -5 +/-


Who is worthy?

Daniels’ defensive problem solving is latest proof of worth

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - MARCH 04: Dyson Daniels #5 of the Atlanta Hawks fouls Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the third quarter at Fiserv Forum on March 04, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Hawks came into Wednesday night four games up on the Milwaukee Bucks in the race for the Eastern Conference Play-In tournament. As added stakes, the Hawks famously own the pick that will turn out to be the better pick between the Bucks and the New Orleans Pelicans.

A win here essentially means both progress towards a postseason appearance AND a better draft pick. So, the importance of this one game out of 82 really couldn’t be overstated.

At the same time, one of the (if not THE) greatest slashers in of all NBA history had just come back from a calf injury, and so the Hawks had their hands full cutting off his path the basket.

The defensive gameplan was, initially, what it usually is when Onyeka Okongwu starts: put Okongwu on Giannis Antetokounmpo and have Jalen Johnson check the stretch center instead (in this case, Myles Turner). But the former matchup very quickly appeared one-sided.

One thing was very evident early on: Okongwu didn’t want to pick Antetokounmpo up outside of the three-point line. Even though he’s obviously not a threatening three-point shooter, it’s still not necessarily the right move to give ground and allow Antetokounmpo momentum heading into the paint.

Here is a classic example of what happened a lot in the first half:

Okongwu has defended Antetokounmpo well at times in the past, but he didn’t seem up for the task on Wednesday. In this one, he tries taking a charge at the free throw line. He had just picked up his first foul and didn’t want a second minutes into the game.

But it’s still just a poor decision from him, and frankly he knew it was just as the Greek Freak slithered by him for an easy dunk:

And a third example where Okongwu just slowly cedes ground until he gets blown by once again:

Something had to change. It was at this point that the coaching staff made a big gamble.

The plan they concocted: what if we put our point guard on Giannis?

Dyson Daniels isn’t just some point guard, of course. He finished second in Defensive Play of the Year voting a season ago. But to put your best perimeter defender on a guy who is three or four inches taller and outweighs him by some 40-odd pounds? That’s a risk.

To that point, the Bucks had scored 56 points in 18 minutes of game time, and Antetokounmpo led that charge with 12 points on 6-for-8 (75%) shooting.

The Bucks’ offense continued rolling after the assignment shift until halftime, shooting 62% from the field and 11-for-19 (58%) from three in the opening half en route to 71 points on a Milwaukee offensive rating of 148 — all truly ugly marks for the Hawks defense.

But the second half was a different matter — and it started with Daniels’ brilliance. The Hawks forced the Bucks to go 1-for-10 in their first ten shot attempts by cutting off the head of the snake.

Atlanta would live with Ousmane Dieng trying to replicate his hot shooting start — a start he did not replicate. Meanwhile, Giannis hardly saw the ball from great ball denial from Daniels off the ball.

On his first shot attempt of the second half, Daniels here picks Antetokounmpo up right at the top of the key (a big difference to how Okongwu handled the matchup), muscles with him in close quarters, and forces him into a fadeaway baseline jumper through great lateral movement:

Defense is a team effort, of course. Even after being switched off his main assignment, Okongwu along with others stayed focused in chipping in to double or wall off Antetokounmpo when needed.

Here’s an example of Daniels cutting off a drive — with a straight up double from Nickeil Alexander-Walker to force a pass out. Jalen Johnson closes out to the shooter with the remaining defenders in good position on the backside in case of a skip pass. Another empty possession forced:

And the Great Barrier Thief always has fantastic hand and eye coordination, using his quick mitts to strip Antetokounmpo to force a stop (this was registered as a block and not a steal):

These efforts helped the Hawks roll to a very satisfying 133-116 win.

The second half alone, the Hawks scored 65 points while allowing just 42 points and an 86 defensive rating. Giannis Antetokounmpo only scored six points on 3-for-6 (50%) shooting while being held to just one assist in that time period as well.

“It’s hard to come up with the superlatives for him defensively,” head coach Quin Snyder said after the game. “The fact that he can guard across different positions. You’re not going to stop Giannis, but you can try to make it hard.”

Daniels has gotten a lot of flak this season for a year in which some people believe is a step back for him. His issues shooting threes as a guard is very notable, and he’s taking by far the fewest three-point attempts per 100 possessions of his career.

After a historic season swiping the ball, his per-game steals mark has dropped from 3.0 to 1.9. He’s scoring less overall and less efficiently despite having the ball in his hands a lot more in the post-Trae Young world.

But both the eyes and the advanced stats should be able to see how incredibly valuable he is as a basketball player.

When you can go from shutting down the other team’s small guard to shutting down a 6-foot-11 behemoth and top five player in the world all while handling the ball on offense, that worth in versatility is something that is impossible to capture in any sort of data.

Did I mention he has also played the 15th most minutes in the NBA (as of Thursday afternoon) and has only missed three of 63 contests this season?

Put plainly: Dyson Daniels has a special skillset. He works extremely hard day in and day out, is always available, and operate key functions on both ends of the floor.

On offense, he’s been incredibly cautious but effective as a lead playmaker as of late:

And on defense, by adding strength to his frame over his years of development, Daniels can now take on all sorts of defensive matchups — although his bread and butter remains smaller perimeter ball handlers. But to do that while taking over point guard duties midseason after Trae Young’s departure is nothing short of incredible.

In fact, as of yesterday afternoon, Daniels is the 16th best qualified player (and best Hawk) in plus-minus on-off splits. Over the course of the season, the Hawks are 8.8 points per 100 possessions with Daniels on the court compared to off the court:

Daniels starts a four-year, $100 million extension this offseason. If you simply read box scores and peruse his meager scoring numbers, it would be easy to assume his play this season should give Hawks fans pause about that price tag.

But the tape reveals a game-changing defensive player who can capably guard just about any player he’s assigned to guard.

So, it’s a major win that the Hawks have Daniels locked up for the foreseeable future. This kind of rare versatility gives the Hawks a number of solutions to in-game problems that few players, if any, possess on their own.

Don’t panic over Payton Pritchard’s slump

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 22: Payton Pritchard #11 of the Boston Celtics looks on during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on February 22, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Nick Tomoyasu/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

Payton Pritchard has become one of the most important offensive engines for the Celtics. Even with Jayson Tatum getting set to return, Boston needs him to produce.

Since Pritchard moved to the bench, the Celtics are 8-0 in games in which he scored 20+ points in and just 2-3 in games in which he scores 9 or less. Interestingly, Pritchard has not scored between 10-19 points since moving to the bench — it has been all boom or bust.

After trading Anfernee Simons, the Celtics don’t have the offensive juice to withstand bad performances from Pritchard, especially against good teams, which is when all of Pritchard’s duds seem to happen.

Yes, Jayson Tatum is coming back and he will help. That doesn’t change that if the Celtics are going to accomplish what they want to accomplish, they’ll need Pritchard to produce.

So why has he had these bad games?

A lot of these games are because he is taking less shots. Pritchard took 6 shots in the Nuggets loss, 4 shots in the Sixers game and 6 shots in the Hornets loss.

Confidence is a fragile thing that even the best players in the world deal with and Payton is no exception.

He isn’t taking a bunch of bad shots right now, either. The shots he is missing are the ones he usually makes.

He has to take and make these looks, because the Celtics are relying on him in a big way to be super productive. He can’t have these types of games when they matter in the playoffs.

For the season, Payton Pritchard is scoring 115.3 points for every 100 shots he takes. That ranks in the 70th percentile according to Cleaning the Glass. However, over the last 6 games, he is scoring 88.9 points per 100 shot attempts, which ranks in the 5th percentile.

He is also shooting 35.5% from two-point range over his last 6 games, which is among the worst in the NBA and down 20.8% from the 56.3% he typically is from inside the arc.

This is a slump, a major slump, but one that I have a lot of confidence he will get through.

I don’t think different coverages have created the recent struggles for Payton. I haven’t noticed any big changes as to the way teams are covering him.

You could chalk it up to bad shot luck. Pritchard is still getting good looks but he has just missed them in recent games. The NBA is a long season and you are going to have weeks that you struggle in and your confidence is a bit shaken.

However, there is one big question that remains: why does Pritchard struggle against good teams?

That seems like an oxymoron with a simple answer. Good teams have better players than bad teams do, which means they have better defenders, which makes it harder to score. If you are going to have an off night, it is more likely to come against a good team rather than a bad one.

Yet, I do think there are reasons to worry.

He has been bad against the Knicks this season, and that is a team the Celtics are probably going to play in the playoffs. Two of his worst games of the season came against the 76ers, a team that very well may be the Celtics first round opponent.

Boston is going to be relying on him in a big way to produce offense in the playoffs in ways they have never relied on him before.

His shooting percentages say that there isn’t any reason to worry about him in the playoffs. They are pretty constant, and good, in the regular season and the postseason.

I don’t think it is time to panic. Pritchard is a really good player that has been awesome for the last two seasons. However, I have my doubts and worries and this stretch has not eased those.

Maybe, this is a slump that he gets out of and he is awesome in playoffs. Maybe, we should be concerned and his play dips in the playoffs as the Celtics are bounced early. Either way, the playoffs always expose your biggest weaknesses and they will answer any questions we have about Pritchard in due time.

NBA standings: Who's in, out of NBA playoffs if season ended today?

It's wild that we are about three-quarters of the way through the 2025-26 NBA regular season. Pretty soon, we'll be seeing the best of the best go toe-to-toe night in, night out in an effort to claim the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Are the Thunder fated to repeat as champions? Will the Eastern Conference produce another unexpected representative? Are the Spurs and Nuggets legitimate title contenders?

These are all questions that NBA fans have been dying to know for months now, but there is still more than a month to go before the postseason begins on April 14.

There's still time for your favorite teams to make a push for the play-in, and possibly shock the world. However, it's still nice to look ahead at what could happen, or what would happen if the playoffs were to begin today.

Here's what the postseason would look like if the season were to end today:

NBA playoff standings

Eastern Conference

1. Detroit Pistons (45-16)

2. Boston Celtics (41-21)

3. New York Knicks (40-23)

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (39-24)

5. Toronto Raptors (35-27)

6. Philadelphia 76ers (34-28)

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (49-15)

2. San Antonio Spurs (45-17)

3. Minnesota Timberwolves (40-23)

4. Houston Rockets (38-23)

5. Denver Nuggets (39-24)

6. Los Angeles Lakers (37-25)

NBA play-in teams

Eastern Conference

7. Orlando Magic (33-28)

8. Miami Heat (34-29)

9. Charlotte Hornets (32-31)

10. Atlanta Hawks (32-31)

Western Conference

7. Phoenix Suns (35-27)

8. Golden State Warriors (32-30)

9. Los Angeles Clippers (30-31)

10. Portland Trail Blazers (30-33)

When does the NBA postseason begin?

The play-in tournament will begin on April 14, running through April 17. The traditional NBA postseason begins a day later, on April 18, running through the rest of April, all of May and well into June. The NBA Finals are scheduled to start on June 3, with Game 7 happening as late as June 19 if necessary.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA standings, updated playoff picture if season ended today

March Madness bracketology: Latest NCAA tournament bubble predictions

This year’s NCAA men's tournament bubble leaves much to be desired.

While there are some name brands hovering around an at-large bid, few have compiled the résumé to break out the first-four-out range and into the bracket.

Take the latest USA TODAY Sports stab at bracketology, where teams such as Indiana, Virginia Commonwealth, Cincinnati and California are on the outside looking in despite an unimpressive group in our last four in: UCLA, Santa Clara, Auburn and New Mexico.

The Bruins earned their way back into the field thanks to an impressive home win against current No. 3 seed Nebraska. But UCLA is still a pedestrian 10-10 in games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 competition.

Santa Clara has just one Quad 1 win, against conference rival St. Mary’s, but is 7-1 against Quad 2 teams. New Mexico remains in the bracket despite dropping two of three but it's hold is precarious. And nothing speaks better to this year’s flimsy bubble than Auburn earning an at-large spot at 16-14 overall, 2-7 on the road and 4-11 against in Quad 1 games.

But that’s still much better than, say, Indiana. The Hoosiers are a miserable 5-12 in Quad 1 and 2 games and lost at home to Northwestern late last month. They do have wins against UCLA, Purdue and Wisconsin, though.

One bubble team to watch is Cincinnati, which seemed to have its tournament hopes extinguished after losing at home to West Virginia on Feb. 5 to fall to 11-12 overall and 3-7 in the Big 12. The Bearcats have since rebounded to take seven of eight, including key wins against Central Florida, Kansas and Brigham Young.

March Madness bracketology: NCAA Tournament projection

March Madness last four in

SMU, Santa Clara, Auburn, New Mexico.

March Madness first four out

Indiana, Virginia Commonwealth, Cincinnati, California.

NCAA tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: SEC (11), Big Ten (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Mountain West (2).

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket predictions: NCAA Tournament bubble forecast

Defensive Disaster Helps Wizards Lock In Another Valuable Loss

WASHINGTON, DC -  MARCH 5: Julian Reese #15 of the Washington Wizards plays defense during the game against the Utah Jazz on March 5, 2026 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The Wizards rode homecourt advantage and contributions from up and down the lineup to grind out one of their most important losses of the season. It was Washington’s seventh straight defeat — exactly the kind of performance the franchise needed at this juncture of the season.

With an array of players sidelined with injuries, head coach Brian Keefe — who’d started the past few games that were small and tiny — went even smaller. Washington fell behind early and never seriously threatened to win the game.

Julian Reese battled inside during the Wizards’ loss to the Utah Jazz. | Getty Images

The Jazz are in a late-season push of their own. They entered the game on a seven-game losing streak, and they also sat several of their best players with injuries. The remaining guys gave an egregious effort and their losing streak came to a halt.

Utah fans can blame career nights from Isaiah Collier (27 points, 11 assists) and Ace Bailey (32 points, including 7 threes) for the win.

Next up for the Wizards, another important opportunity to advance in the standings with a loss to the 19-44 New Orleans Pelicans.

Thoughts & Observations

  • My notes degenerated into a record of Washington’s horrible defensive performance. An astonishing number of them included Leaky Black, who had an awful defensive game. I was running out of adjectives by the end. Some of it looked like…well…indifference isn’t quite the right word, but it’s close. Let’s just say Black did not compete like someone fighting for an NBA career. He was weak as a point of attack defender, didn’t react in situations where he was the help defender, and he missed box outs. Not too good.
  • Trae Young’s first three three-point attempts were all bad shots. They were all from beyond what some in the league have started calling “four-point range,” and {whispers} Young actually isn’t a good extreme range shooter. On one, Young brought the ball up the floor, and pulled up from 28 feet without making a pass or running an action.
  • Young’s court vision and some of his passes were nice and could be quite valuable when his better teammates are on the floor.
  • A note I jotted: “Young is very easy to screen.”
  • I had more notes tonight about Wizards “getting into their bags” to get difficult shots. Hopefully, they can develop their bodies and learn to use those skills to get makable shots. Or draw fouls. Or set up teammates for easy shots.
  • Jazz analyst Thurl Bailey said during the broadcast that the knock on Young coming out of Oklahoma was that, “…his game wouldn’t translate to the NBA” and that “he’s proved a lot of people wrong.” This is crazy. People questioned his size and strength and whether he’d be able to defend effectively at that size. (The answer: no, he’s not able to defend effectively at that size. More to the point, these “knocks” weren’t bad — HE GOT PICKED FIFTH OVERALL.
  • Utah’s Blake Hinson reminded me of former Bullets great Ledell Eackles. This is a compliment.
  • One egregious defensive play happened late in the first quarter. Riley was ball watching from the weak side and lost track of Cody Williams, who cut behind him. Bub Carrington was low man and had help responsibility. Except, Carrington was ALSO ball watching and didn’t notice Williams cutting across his face.
  • More bad defense? The Wizards went zone in the second quarter. Utah made two passes and got a wide open three because — for some reason — no one was guarding the area where the shooter was standing.
  • On offense, the Wizards kept running actions that other teams use to force switches and get a favorable matchup. The Wizards got the switches, and then…just passed the ball to a teammate.
  • Late in the second quarter, Bailey drove for a dunk. The play included pathetic perimeter defense from Black, late, small, and ineffective help at the rim (Carrington reacted late and did nothing). JuJu Reese should have been able to help, but he didn’t notice the drive until Bailey was at the rim.
  • A note I jotted: “Bailey is going to petition the league to be defended by Black every game.” (You could replace that name with Collier, and it’d still work.“
  • Kudos to Reese for grabbing 20 (not a typo) rebounds.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORSJAZZWIZARDSLGAVG
eFG%59.2%58.4%54.3%
OREB%37.8%34.9%26.0%
TOV%11.8%20.4%12.8%
FTM/FGA0.1410.2860.207
PACE9399.4
ORTG131120115.3

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Julian Reese387417817.2%8.1187-2
Bilal Coulibaly346611918.0%0.499-5
Anthony Gill34652087.5%4.5100-11
Tre Johnson203910432.2%-1.41282
Trae Young193710735.7%-1.21254
Leaky Black397611016.3%-0.629-4
Bub Carrington153012717.6%0.619-15
Sharife Cooper4710516.7%-0.140-7
Will Riley25499526.5%-2.7-9-11
Jaden Hardy11226627.4%-2.9-84-1
JAZZMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Ace Bailey336317022.2%7.62938
Kyle Filipowski316014422.5%3.92187
Isaiah Collier295613536.2%4.02305
Cody Williams367017212.9%5.11599
Mo Bamba173314316.9%1.61563
John Konchar3771677.6%-2.6666
Blake Hinson224212517.1%0.7910
Brice Sensabaugh24469033.1%-3.9169
Elijah Harkless12234711.1%-1.7-1503