Key factors that will help decide Sixers vs. Celtics Game 7 originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
No one needs a refresher on what’s at stake Saturday night.
So, what will decide Game 7 of the Sixers’ first-round playoff series against the Celtics? Here’s a look at six key factors:
Defensive precision
The Sixers have held the Celtics under 100 points in two straight games and scrapped back in the series largely through outstanding defense.
“The effort on the defensive end has certainly improved,” Sixers head coach Nick Nurse said after his team’s Game 6 win Thursday night.
Of course, every team has details to sharpen. The Sixers botched their coverage of Boston’s stack pick-and-rolls on a couple of plays in Game 6. Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid essentially got sandwiched between Sam Hauser’s back screen early in the third quarter, leading to a driving Jayson Tatum dunk.
Effort will go a long way, but the Sixers will also need to stay on the same page and keep communicating through all the noise and chaos of TD Garden.
George’s shooting
Paul George’s quick, sensible trigger stood out from the Game 6 tape.
George attempted nine three-pointers for the second game in a row and knocked down five. He’s at 54.3 percent from three-point range in the series.
While some of those shots have been well-contested, George hasn’t just been launching heat checks. In Game 6, he understood the Celtics’ defense and decisively grabbed what was available.
When he faced drop pick-and-roll coverage, George nailed a three over Celtics center Neemias Queta. When Boston geared up to ice a George-Embiid side pick-and-roll, George accepted the invitation to go toward the baseline and swished a step-back three. And when George brought a defensive rebound up the floor and noticed Tatum on his heels, he stepped into a confident pull-up jumper.
George has been especially excellent on pull-up threes in the series, going 9 for 12 on those shots. The Sixers would love for him to sustain everything he’s done so far as a shooter, both in terms of decision-making and results.
Embiid’s passing
Embiid was officially listed as probable on the Sixers’ Game 7 injury report. It seems safe to assume he’ll play again at below 100 percent health.
The Sixers would obviously be thrilled if Embiid found his shooting touch in the superstar big man’s fourth game since undergoing an appendectomy. Regardless of whether that happens, Embiid’s passing will play a major role.
Embiid faced more double teams in Game 6 and handled them nicely, dishing out eight assists. He committed one turnover and even made the right read on that play, spotting Kelly Oubre Jr.’s cut along the baseline but throwing an errant pass off the side of the backboard.
The most common post defense Embiid saw in Game 6 was an extra body once he put the ball on the floor. As he showed, he has several viable counters.
Embiid can attack his defender right away before the double arrives. He can face up and opt against any dribbling, instead taking a mid-range jumper. He can also wait for the Sixers to exploit their manpower advantage and feed a teammate who’s cut into open space.
Embiid and Oubre have an intuitive connection on those plays that they’ve honed over the last three years.
“He’s become a tremendous passer,” Oubre said.
Over his three prior Game 7s, Embiid has totaled eight assists and 16 turnovers. The Sixers believe he’ll fare much better in the passing department Saturday.
How much can Maxey get where he wants to go?
The Celtics have been determined to prevent Maxey from driving anywhere near the rim, especially with his right hand. That doesn’t mean the task is impossible.
Even when Maxey starts zooming downhill with his left hand and the defense is shading him in that direction, he’s proven capable of getting back to his right. On top of raw speed, much of that stems from craftiness. He snaked ball screens well in Game 6, putting his defender on his hip and steering right. Maxey also varied his pace and footwork on pick-and-roll drives, including a clever Euro step between Derrick White and Nikola Vucevic.
Pull-ups will presumably remain an important part of Maxey’s game on Saturday. He’s already attempted 42 pull-up threes, the most of any player in the playoffs, and made 15 (35.7 percent).
However, Maxey’s talked often in recent years about learning to “manipulate” the game. He’s a superstar and has the tools to sometimes deny the Celtics their preferred way.
The possession game
The cliché about every possession mattering in the playoffs will certainly apply to Game 7.
The Sixers will be intent on having another good defensive rebounding game and blocking out the Celtics’ crashers. Nurse always aims to force turnovers and avoid cheap live-ball giveaways, too.
The Sixers have been the better team overall with turnovers in the series. According to Cleaning the Glass, they’ve had an 11.6 turnover percentage outside of garbage time. Boston’s at 14.0 percent.
“It just comes down to us leaving it all out there for 48 minutes,” George said. “Give it our best shot and play as hard as we can. This is when we really have to lock in. The attention to details has to be there and the focus has to be there. Take care of the ball and value those possessions.”
Can Sixers break through, create history?
The Sixers haven’t beaten the Celtics in a playoff series since 1982. Only 13 NBA teams have ever won a series after trailing 3-1. Home teams tend to have an edge in Game 7s.
None of that should be daunting to the seventh-seeded Sixers, who are coming off of two great games and know they can win in Boston. The history is the history, though. We’ll see if the Sixers can break through and change it.
“We have a chance to accomplish something special,” Embiid said. “You look at everything they have, that’s a superteam. We’ve got to just go in there with the mindset we’ve had for the last two wins. One play at a time.
“Tough environment, but we’ve been there and we’ve won two games there. So just keep doing what we’ve been doing and we’ll be fine.”
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