The Spurs and Knicks will clash in the NBA Finals for the second time in NBA history, with New York looking to avenge the loss they suffered in 1999. The two teams had different paths to the ultimate destination, as San Antonio faced tougher competition, but it’s clear they are the class of their respective conferences. It’s set to be a heavyweight bout that could go either way.
Before the playoffs started, the general sentiment was that whoever came out of the West would be the champion, but it’s hard to count the Knicks out, considering how dominant they have looked and the success they had against the Spurs in the regular season and the Emirates NBA Cup. San Antonio is still the favorite according to FanDuel’s odds, but the gap has been closing leading up to the series to show that New York is not an ordinary underdog. The Silver and Black will have to be at their best to raise another banner.
The Spurs need to push the pace and hunt matchups on offense
For a team that features Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks are a surprisingly good defensive squad. They have their identity, familiarity, and a group of versatile, long wings to thank for that. Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges can guard multiple positions and provide enough help when needed without surrendering too many open looks. Their turnover-averse offense allows them to force teams to play against a set defense that has flaws but also has the tools to hide them, and their elite rebounding doesn’t allow for many redos. It’s why pace will be so important in this series.
The Spurs are at their best when they attack early. Everybody knows that by now, but it can be hard to stop them because they have quick, aggressive guards who will push the pace given the opportunity. Against the Knicks, they will need to be even more assertive than ever to hunt those buckets in the first few seconds of the possession or to simply use pace to create mismatches when they are forced to slow down. Making New York uncomfortable is hard because of their ability to switch and adjust along the wing, but the best chance to do it is by catching them off guard and relentlessly targeting favorable matchups.
Defensive rebounding will be key to kick-starting transition opportunities, because the Knicks won’t cough the ball up often. New York has a size advantage at several positions and one of their keys to success against San Antonio will be to weaponize it on the glass. It’s not just about stopping them from getting the extra possessions but also about cleanly grabbing the board and passing ahead to start the attack. The more contested rebounds they have to fight for on their own end, the more the Silver and Black will be forced to play in the half-court on offense. Boxing out is not optional and gang rebounding is a must.
If the game does become a slow-paced affair, the Spurs will need to make the Knicks’ defense move while searching for the right matchup. Jalen Brunson will likely try to hide on Julian Champagnie, so getting Champagnie or whoever else Brunson is on involved in plays will be hugely important not only to tire out the engine of their offense but also to force New York to help, unlocking the three-point line for San Antonio’s shooters. Stephon Castle tends to initiate slowly on offense, which helps keep his turnovers in check, but in this series, pace in the half-court will be as important as pace on the open floor.
It will be interesting to see how the Knicks deal with Wembanyama, because it could determine how the series goes. Do they put bigs on him, play drop, and try to contain the pick and roll without sending help, risking buckets close to the rim? Do they stick Anunoby or Hart on him and switch or swarm, hoping that Wemby will be forced to take jumpers? There’s no perfect answer when it comes to stopping The Alien, but how the defense treats his matchups will determine whether Wemby can be helpful as a decoy, allowing him to save energy on the offensive end by just drawing attention as a dive man or as a floor-spacer.
As the series progresses, both coaches will make adjustments, but at first glance and at this point in the postseason, the offensive battle seems to be more about who gets to set the terms of engagement than about Xs and Os. If the Spurs can get points early in the offense after misses, figure out how to hunt matchups, and use Wembanyaama creatively, they should be able to keep up. If instead they play slow and try to grind possessions out with little movement, they could be in trouble.
On defense, it’s all about the possession game and the lessons from the Thunder series
The Spurs are coming off a series in which they faced an opponent who had an elite primary creator and a bunch of role players who weren’t great at manufacturing their own shots but fantastic at finishing the looks their superstar got for them directly or with his gravity. The Knicks are similar in that, outside of Jalen Brunson, they don’t have anyone who is a top-end bucket getter, but plenty of players who know what to do when they are open. One of the lessons from the Conference Finals is that sometimes it’s better to let a superstar get his points if it means others don’t contribute much.
The matchup-specific advantage of that strategy is that it could help the Spurs negate the massive size advantage New York has on the wing. Mitch Johnson could simply slot De’Aaron Fox on Brunson and live with the results, which would allow him to put Stephon Castle on Towns in a similar way in which he had him guarding Julius Randle. Now, the potential pitfalls of the strategy are clear and dangerous. A fully healthy Fox struggled against Brunson in the regular season. Once the Knicks superstar gets going, it’s almost impossible to stop him. If Wembanyama has to overhelp to prevent him from going off for 60, the glass will be open. But with no good way to hide Fox, it might just be worth putting him in the spotlight and luring the Knicks into having Brunson attack him while everyone else watches.
While it should be an option, the above might be too daring an approach to start the series. It’s more likely Mitch Johnson keeps it simple, at least early on. The best point of attack defender, Castle, will probably be on the opponent’s best creator. The Spurs can’t afford to have Wembanyama on Karl-Anthony Towns full-time, but they can have him start some possessions on him and use their unique one-man zone in which Wemby is always in help position. Towns could shoot over smaller defenders, and Josh Hart, the guy who Wemby would, on paper, guard, might get hot from outside, but San Antonio could live with that if the paint is protected. New York has two counters to that strategy, as they can go five out by taking Hart out, or they could use two bigs if Mitchell Robinson is available, to force Wemby to commit to guarding someone instead of roaming. But if they are forced to change their approach, it means the Spurs’ familiar strategies are working.
Whatever the Spurs decide to do on defense, they need to make sure it doesn’t leave them exposed in the glass. If Hart is left open, he can not only make San Antonio pay by hitting shots but also by crashing the boards from the corner, so someone needs to always be aware of where he is. If a smaller player guards Towns, they’ll need to put a body on him before he can get position inside once a shot goes up. Robinson will get his offensive boards because he’s elite at it and neither Wembanyama nor Luke Kornet, who was helpless against him in his time in Boston, should be able to keep him from recovering misses, but if he’s the only one doing the damage, the Silver and Black should be fine. After all, Wembanyama might be able to get points back on the other end if Robinson guards him.
If there was a recipe for guarding Brunson, the Knicks wouldn’t be in the Finals. He’ll get his points. The key for the Spurs will be to win the possession battle by not turning the ball over, limiting the amount of second-chance opportunities New York gets, and trying to keep anyone else from catching fire. Mike Brown’s team is great at grinding out games when they have to, and Brunson is an elite closer, so it won’t be easy to win even if the defense does its job. The key will be to not panic if things go awry but also not be scared to mix things up and make daring adjustments, as the Thunder series showed.
Prediction: Spurs in six
The Knicks are a machine. They carried over the successful identity they built under Tom Thibodeau and added depth and some more spice to their offense. They have been as impressive as any team in the postseason, even accounting for the lesser competition they faced compared to the Spurs. They are a horrible matchup for a San Antonio team that will be in a consistent size disadvantage, and for Victor Wembanyama, who might be forced to venture to the perimeter when Towns is out there and could exhaust himself trying to keep Robinson off the glass. And it might still not matter.
The Spurs, at their best, can steamroll opponents in different ways. If the transition buckets aren’t there, they have the creators and the finishers to use simple actions to get open looks. If the open looks aren’t there, they have shot-makers and guards that will relentlessly test the defense with drives, brute-forcing their way to the line. And they have Victor Wembanyama, the most impactful two-way force in the league, locked in and ready for the challenge.
Both teams have advantages that they should be able to exploit, but if the Spurs’ young talent plays to its full potential, with Wemby leading the way, San Antonio could come out on top in what will surely be a close series.
