
Before I start, I wanted to give some shoutouts to some great resource material that has helped me understand some things better about Jaren Jackson Jr. First, if you haven’t read Parker Fleming’s Substack, he does great work on the Grizzlies, and you can find incredible work from him on Jaren Jackson Jr. This article discussing Jackson at the 5, is great insight.
I also really enjoyed this episode of the Game Theory Podcast with Sam Vecenie, which discussed JJJ and the pros and cons of his play.
Fleming and Vecenie give great insight into Jackson and the flaws in his game. Those flaws have led many, myself included, to believe that he shouldn’t be at the 5. With the trade of Walker Kessler and the signing of Jusuf Nurkic, Will Hardy is going to be left with a tough decision of who should start at the 5 this season. The consensus with Jaren Jackson Jr. from those not as close to the Grizzlies is that because of his flaws, he shouldn’t be starting at the 5. What are those flaws? They can basically be boiled down to two things: rebounding and foul rate.
The question for the Jazz is, are those flaws insurmountable?
The answer appears to be yes.
The question of whether Jaren Jackson Jr. can improve his rebounding is probably a definitive no at this point. Coming into his 9th season in the league, it’s safe to say that he is what he is at this point as a rebounder. Luckily, rebounding isn’t something that only Jaren Jackson Jr. has to worry about. Lauri Markkanen, who is in the 64th percentile in the league as a rebounder, can have a big impact for the Jazz. And having Ace Bailey on the floor can also be a huge boon to the Jazz’s defensive rebounding. Bailey is a huge, athletic wing who shows great rebounding ability and can be a big help as well. With Bailey and Markkanen helping gang rebound, the Jazz should be relatively fine on the defensive glass. Now, this will still likely be an issue. When Utah faces elite offensive rebounding teams, mostly in the playoffs, they might need to think of starting Nurkic. But during the season, and even in the playoffs, they might be fine, regardless.
The other issue is the fouling. When you look at this roster, it looks like the Jazz made their decisions knowing that Kessler might not be on the squad. The Jusuf Nurkic signing looks more and more like an essential one. Not just that Nurkic played well last year, but that he covers the holes in Jackson’s game. If Jackson gets in foul trouble, Utah can put in Nurkic and not lose a beat. And in reality, they will play the same style whether it’s with Jackson or Nurkic. In all likelihood, Utah understood this when they traded Kessler. Learning more about Jackson’s game, he is a vastly better on-ball player on offense than I realized. This post from Parker Fleming’s Substack dove into a game where Jackson dominated against Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns.
What Jackson and Nurkic both do that Kessler didn’t is not just run endless dribble handoffs at the top of the three-point line, but initiate offense. Nurkic is more of a passer from the top, while Jackson is a punishing isolation player who can drive to the basket or pull-up in the mid-range. According to DunksandThrees.com, Jaren Jackson Jr. has been in 90+ percentile or higher the last two seasons from the mid-range. Jackson’s game is extremely versatile, so he doesn’t have the elite rim% of players who solely finish alley-oops and make putback dunks on offensive rebounds. He’s more of a center with guard skills that makes life miserable for most traditional centers. He’ll also occasionally grab a rebound and dribble the length of the court. He’s got a lot to his game that can make the Jazz extremely unique offensively.
With Jackson, and in life, it’s important not to get completely consumed by players’ flaws. The strengths of Jackson’s game are what make it hard not to think this Jazz team couldn’t be in the top half of the playoff seeds next season. Utah will have a 5-out offense that will punish opposing weaknesses. Jackson will be a problem every night, whether it’s from his three-point shooting, his mid-range iso, or his rim pressure. On top of Jackson’s personal impact, he allows the Jazz to clear the paint, giving players like Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson space to get to the basket. There’s no question we’re going to see nights where Utah runs up the score, and I personally can’t wait. Jaren Jackson Jr. at the 5, if Utah can minimize his flaws, should have an incredible season. It’s not out of the question to wonder if it becomes his best season yet.
























