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The New York Knicks find themselves in a must-win situation when they visit State Farm Arena and the upstart Atlanta Hawks.

Our NBA player prop projections are offering several data-backed NBA prop bets for tonight's game, and we found six NBA player props with strong edges and solid value as we dive more into our Knicks vs. Hawks predictions.

Read on for our NBA picks for Saturday, April 25.

Knicks vs Hawks computer picks for Game 4

Knicks	Hawks
Bridges o10.5 points  -120	Kuminga o13.5 points +100
Robinson o4.5 points -105	Daniels o9.5 points -130
Towns 11.5 rebounds -125	Okongwu o12.5 points -112

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Knicks Game 4 computer picks

Mikal Bridges Over 10.5 Points (-120)

Projection: 12.09 points

Mikal Bridges was held scoreless in Game 3, his third straight subpar outing in a series where he's totaled just 21 points. But he averaged 14.4 points per game this season and has cleared 10.5 in five of his previous nine.

The New York Knicks need him to get buckets, and the model says tonight is the night he wakes up.

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Mitchell Robinson Over 4.5 Points (-105)

Projection: 5.2 points

Mitchell Robinson had just 2 points in Game 3, but cleared this number in four of his previous six. He averaged 5.2 points per game on the road this season, and at -105, this is one of the better prices on the board for what the model projects.

He's cleared his points prop in four of his previous six games and is a good bet to score at least five points tonight. 

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Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125)

Projection: 13.3 rebounds

Karl-Anthony Towns pulled down 17 rebounds in Game 3 alone. He's hit 12 or more in half of his last six games, logs around 34 minutes per game in this series, and the model has him at 13.33 tonight.

The Atlanta Hawks simply don't have an answer for him on the glass, and that lack of an answer will carry over tonight. 

span style="font-size: 14px;"🔥/span spanBet Towns Now at bet365!/span

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Hawks Game 4 computer picks

Jonathan Kuminga Over 13.5 Points (+100)

Projection: 14.9 points

Jonathan Kuminga exploded for 21 in Game 3 and has cleared this number in four of his last five. He runs the floor as well as anyone in this series, and the Knicks haven't found an answer for him. 

At plus money, this is the best value play on the card for a player who's scored at least 14 points in four of his previous five contests. 

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Dyson Daniels Over 9.5 Points (-130) 

Projection: 10.8 points

Dyson Daniels had 8 points in Game 3 and has struggled a bit in this series overall, but he's logging 33-plus minutes and averaged 11.9 points per game during the regular season.

The model sees 10.81 tonight, and the playing time alone gives him every opportunity to get there.

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Onyeka Okongwu Over 12.5 Points (-112) 

Projection: 14.83 points

Onyeka Okongwu is averaging 14.3 points per game in this series and 15.2 during the regular season. He had just 9 in Game 3 after going 1-for-4 from distance, a shot profile that won't repeat itself.

Expect him to attack the paint tonight and get back to where the model has him.

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How to watch Knicks vs Hawks Game 4

Location	State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Date	Saturday, April 25, 2026
Tip-off	6:00 p.m. ET
TV	NBC, Peacock

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The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet in Game 3 of their first-round NBA playoff series. The Pistons evened the series in Game 2. Games 3 and 4 will be played in Orlando. The Detroit Pistons are favored with a -145 moneyline compared to the Orlando Magic's +118. The over/under for the matchup is set at 214.5.

How to watch Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic

• Date: Saturday, April 25

• Time: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT

• Where: Kia Center, Orlando, Florida

• TV Channels: Peacock, NBC

• Live Stream:NBA League Pass | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Odds

• Spread: Orlando Magic +2.5

• Moneyline: Orlando Magic +118 (43.7%) / Detroit Pistons -145 (56.3%)

• Over/Under: 214.5

Series schedule

Game 1:Magic 112, Pistons 101
Game 2:Pistons 98, Magic 83
Game 3: Sat., April 25, at Orlando (1 p.m., Peacock)
Game 4: Mon. April 27, at Orlando (time and network TBD)
*Game 5: Wed., April 29, at Detroit (time and network TBD)
*Game 6: Fri., May 1, at Orlando (time and network TBD)
*Game 7: Sun., May 3, at Detroit (time and network TBD)

*if necessary

The Knicks head back to State Farm Arena for Game Four against the Hawks, down 2-1 in their first-round playoff series. New York must find a way to stop the bleeding after dropping two straight one-point losses, including Thursday’s 109-108 bummer in Game Three. The Knicks can still win the series, but you’re forgiven for any loss of confidence as they continue to let go of the rope and then hang themselves with it.

In Game Three, the Hawks edged out the Knicks 109-108 on a late fadeaway jumper from CJ McCollum with 12.5 seconds left. McCollum finished with 23 points, while Jalen Johnson led Atlanta with a 24-point, 10-rebound double-double. For the Knicks, OG Anunoby poured in 29 points, and Karl-Anthony Towns had a 21-17 double-double, but Jalen Brunson can’t find his cape in the series, and Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges combined for two points on 1-of-11 shooting in Game Three. Josh can be forgiven due to the rebounding and various intangibles he delivers, but Bridges looked every bit of his -26 plus-minus, committing four turnovers and taking three shots before getting benched during the second half.

Usually the team that owns the glass with a +14 rebounding edge in the series and leads for a majority of game time would be in the driver’s seat. Yet defensive lapses, curious late-game execution, and missed opportunities at the free-throw line have been self-inflicted gashes. Poor preparation and execution? Sounds like a coaching failure. Mike Brown’s rotations and timeout management have indeed drawn criticism, particularly his failure to keep All-Star players on the floor consistently in crunch time. Integrating Towns more effectively early and attacking Atlanta’s frontcourt weaknesses remains an obvious adjustment, and with more gravity drawn to Towns, Brunson might find a little more spacing in which to conjure his dark arts.

Greater contribution from their bench would be nice, too. Jordan Clarkson has been adequate in his limited role, but Landry Shamet has recorded three points in the series. So much for a flamethrower off the bench. Mitchell Robinson should be the X-Factor against these smaller Birds, but he has played only 44 minutes and grabbed 15 rebounds. Dude should be playing 25-30 minutes and averaging double-digit boards per game. And how about letting Mohamed Diawara play a possession or two, when a tad extra height would give New York an edge around the paint? A smart coach should be able to find 3 minutes for the long rookie in a playoff game, even if just to protect Towns from foul trouble at the end of the third quarter or something.

The keys to victory for New York are unchanged: control the tempo, crash the boards, limit turnovers, and stay locked in on Atlanta’s perimeter threats (McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker). The Knicks must also clean up their late-game decision-making and free-throw shooting. Getting Towns involved early and keeping him or Brunson (or both) on the floor at all times in the fourth quarter is essential. The postseason is no time for grab-bag experimentation—unless that means starting Miles McBride over Bridges. That’s a change that much of the fanbase would support at this juncture.

On the injury front, the Knicks are reportedly healthy. OG Anunoby is playing through a minor ankle issue. The Hawks remain without Jock Landale; Onyeka Okongwu is managing knee inflammation but has been available.

ESPN gives the Knicks roughly a 54% win probability on the road. Good deal. This series can still belong to New York if they tighten up the small details and stop letting Atlanta off the hook late. Expect another tight, grind-it-out battle in Atlanta. When the Knicks play their best basketball–disciplined, physical, and relentless on the glass–they’ve shown they’re the better team. Prediction: Knicks by four.

Game Details

Who: New York Knicks (1-2) at Atlanta Hawks (2-1)
Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Place: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
TV: Peacock / NBC
Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky

The Houston Rockets fell into a practically insurmountable hole against the Los Angeles Lakers, falling 112-108 in overtime to a team still missing two of its three best players. The Rockets were also without Kevin Durant, but they had a chance to win the game, but fell apart down the stretch and into overtime, with the Lakers walking away with the 112-108 victory.

Head coach Ime Udoka called out his team after the loss, saying “Horrendous mistakes. “I don’t know if you want to say youth or scared of the moment, or whatever the case.” Just once I’d like to see Ime call out his own horrendous mistakes — and there have been many in the series — but just another moment in a long string of Udoka assigning blame but failing to take any for himself.

Although it certainly wasn’t Ime who turned the ball over to LeBron James in closing moments, leading to a three — that was Reed Sheppard. And it wasn’t Ime who missed a shot down the stretch — that was Alperen Sengun. Jabari Smith Jr. also had an ugly turnover down the stretch. But the Rockets have struggled closing out games even with Kevin Durant this season — and that’s ultimately a failure of coaching as well that a long-standing issue has not been addressed.

In addition, Udoka’s season-long issues with rotation have been well-discussed around here and have reared their ugly head once again in this series, partcularly in Game 2.

Udoka also told his team following this loss to, “Grow up. You’re not that young anymore.” But if it were up to me, the Rockets would be doing some serious introspection following this likely series loss, and moving on from Udoka should be one of the top considerations. This season has been as much about a referendum on Udoka’s coaching inadequacies as much it’s been a referendum on Houston’s mismatched roster.

But in this one, the Rockets were led by Sengun, with 33 points, 16 boards and 6 assists. He was 15-for-27 from the field. Amen Thompson had 26 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals on 8-for-14 shooting, and Jabari Smith had 24 points and 6 boards on 8-for-16 shooting.

Reed Sheppard also pitched in 17 points, but he shot just 6-for-21 from the floor and and had 5 turnovers in 45 minutes played, including a big one down the stretch. Coach, maybe if you didn’t pull Reed all year when he made a mistake, it might have made him more confident in these types of moments — some coaching 101 stuff. Reed did add 7 assists but was also cooked on D.

The Lakers were led by LeBron James with 29, Rui Hachimura with 22 and Marcus Smart with 21, but this game — and series — is less about the Lakers and more about Houstons failures. The Rockets did battle back from an early 15-point deficit in the first half, but couldn’t keep it together to close things out.

Once Houston loses this series, I believe all options should be on the table — including firing Udoka, or trading Kevin Durant or even Alperen Sengun. I don’t know that the Rockets feel the same way, and in fact, I fear that they don’t. This teams needs changes, that’s for sure.

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Even with Anthony Edwards not at full strength, the Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to look like a team hitting its playoff groove and they’ve got Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on their heels heading into Game 4.

Sure, the defense grabbed the headlines after holding Denver to just 34% shooting on Friday, but quietly, Minnesota’s offense is beginning to find its rhythm too.

We'll dish on which playmakers are standing out in our same game parlay NBA picks and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions for Saturday, April 25.

Our best Nuggets vs Timberwolves SGP for Game 4

It speaks volumes about the Minnesota Timberwolves' growth that an injury to Anthony Edwards hasn’t derailed their momentum in this first-round series.

Rather than folding, Minnesota’s supporting cast has stepped up in a big way. Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, and Ayo Dosunmu combined for 60 points in Game 3, showcasing the depth and resilience of this roster.

That same formula will be critical as the Timberwolves look to seize a 3-1 series lead, and it puts a bright spotlight on DiVincenzo. The sharpshooting guard has cleared this scoring line in all three games of the series, riding a red-hot stretch that includes hitting 11 of his 22 attempts from beyond the arc.

The Denver Nuggets have struggled to deal with his quick trigger and off-ball movement, particularly in actions like dribble handoffs and screens. His ability to create space and fire in rhythm has made him a constant threat, especially in transition, where Minnesota dominated with a 21-7 edge in fast-break points last game.

While this total sits close to DiVincenzo’s regular-season average of 12.2 points per game, the Timberwolves will need even more offensive punch from him with Edwards not at full strength. His scoring has become a key component of their attack.

Minnesota has looked like the more physical and assertive team through three games, and DiVincenzo’s perimeter shooting continues to stretch Denver’s defense thin.

Still, don’t expect Nikola Jokic to stay quiet for long. The three-time MVP has built his playoff reputation on consistency, averaging 27.4 points and 12.4 rebounds per game, and is primed for a bounce-back showing in Game 4.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder seek to take a commanding 3-0 lead in their NBA Western Conference first-round series with the Phoenix Suns, and our NBA player prop projections have been hard at work.

Our model has found six NBA player props with solid edges to exploit for today’s Game 3.

Read on for our NBA picks for Saturday, April 25. 

Thunder vs Suns computer picks for Game 3

Thunder	Suns
Gilgeous-Alexander o1.5 made threes -112	Booker o23.5 points -110
Dort o7.5 points -120	Brooks o4.5 rebounds +115
Hartenstein o8.5 rebounds -120	Green o19.5 points -110

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Thunder Game 3 computer picks

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Made Threes (-112) 

Projection: 1.81 made threes

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31 points through two games, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are not asking him to hunt threes. But when he does pull up, he's capable. 

He attempted five shots in Game 2 and made two. The model sees 1.81 tonight, and he’s made at least two triples in five of his previous six contests. 

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Lu Dort Over 7.5 Points (-120) 

Projection: 8.17 points

Lu Dort had eight points in Game 1 and nine in Game 2, hitting threes in bunches both games. The model sees 8.17, and he's been consistent enough to lean on. 

The price is a little steep at -120, but the Phoenix Suns defense hasn’t solved the Dort riddle, and he’s a good bet to score at least eight points today. 

span style="font-size: 14px;"🔥/span spanBet Dort Now at bet365!/span

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 Rebounds (-120) 

Projection: 9.41 rebounds

Isaiah Hartenstein had eight boards in Game 1 and 10 in Game 2, including six offensive rebounds in the last game alone. He's quietly one of the most active rebounders in this series. 

Like most Thunder players, he’s script-reliant, but he’s gotten 20 minutes in both NBA playoff games, and we’ll follow the data to the window. 

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Suns Game 3 computer picks

Devin Booker Over 23.5 points (-110) 

Projection: 27.79 points

Devin Booker had 23 and 22 in the first two games, so he's averaging just below this number on the series. But the model sees 27.79 tonight, and he’s playing at home.

Booker is getting to the charity stripe, and he’s shooting 48% from the field in this series. Let’s trust the data and bet his Over. 

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Dillon Brooks Over 4.5 Rebounds (+115) 

Projection: 4.84 rebounds

Dillon Brooks has already grabbed 13 rebounds in this series. He’s been a demon on the boards, and our model expects another solid night on the boards.

He’ll likely see 35 or more minutes today, and if he doesn’t get ejected, he's a good bet to snag at least five rebounds this afternoon. 

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Jalen Green Over 19.5 Points (-110) 

Projection: 21.15 points

Jalen Green has scored more than 20 points in three playoff games. He’s coming off a 21-point Game 2 performance, and our model expects another big scoring night from Green.

Green’s ceiling is huge, and his floor is solid enough to back the data and play the Over on his points scored prop. 

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How to watch Thunder vs Suns Game 3

Location	Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date	Saturday, April 25, 2026
Tip-off	3:30 p.m. ET
TV	NBC, Peacock

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The NBA first round is well underway, and while the Mavericks aren’t participating, there are still lessons to be learned.

As the Mavericks approach a pivotal offseason, they should focus on the trends that emerged during the playoffs. Certain types of players thrive within the heightened physicality and focus of the playoffs, while others fail. The Mavericks should try to find the type of players who will succeed in that environment if they hope to contend in the near future.

Small guards are not worth the investment

One of the most evident trends from recent years is that small guards are simply not very useful anymore.

Now, ball-handling is incredibly important, but having it be from small, unathletic, guards is not a good idea. The principal example of this is the Houston Rockets, who are down 0-2 to a Lakers team without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Rockets lack any real on-ball creation or shooting outside Kevin Durant, and have struggled mightily offensively. The answer to their problems could be second-year guard Reed Sheppard, who is an elite shooter and ball-handler.

The problem is that he compromises the Rockets’ defense, serving as an entry point for any of the Lakers’ on-ball creators.

Because of this, he only played 11 minutes in Game 2.

But the Rockets aren’t the only team with this problem.

The biggest example is the Knicks, who are having a serious Jalen Brunson problem. Now, by no means is Brunson a bad player, nor is it his fault that the Knicks are down 1-2, but his flaws are becoming hard to ignore.

Similarly to Sheppard, Brunson has been relentlessly hunted all series, repeatedly getting beaten by CJ McCollum and Jonathon Kuminga.

This should open the eyes of anyone in the Mavericks front office, as this upcoming draft pick could be a small guard with limited athleticism. These players, even the best ones, can have destructive flaws, ones that cannot be covered up.

The Mavericks are blessed to have a two-way superstar

This take was formed as I was watching the Nuggets vs Timberwolves game on Thursday night, and seeing Nikola Jokic get relentlessly hunted by everyone on the Timberwolves.

No one can deny Jokic’s greatness offensively, but his defense is what holds him back from being one of the 5 best players of all time. This flaw is brought to the forefront when Aaron Gordon doesn’t play, as the Nuggets have no one else to insulate Jokic on the defensive end.

Seeing this makes me excited about the prospect of building around Cooper Flagg, who will never be a player who is hunted by other teams.

This should make team-building easier, as well as giving Flagg an insanely high floor, even when his shot isn’t falling.

Now it may be a while before Flagg plays in these games, but when he does, the Mavericks won’t lose playoff games because of his individual defense.

Shooting is king

This one is obvious, but three-point shooting continues to rule the playoffs. Teams with ample shooting and spacing simply have more avenues to win than teams without it.

The Lakers series is the prime example of this, as the Lakers are shooting 49% from three, while the Rockets are shooting 29% from three. Not only are the Lakers making more threes, but the threat of these shots has opened up the lane for LeBron James and Marcus Smart to score inside.

On the other hand, the Rockets have had truly disastrous spacing, leading to incredibly aggressive defense by the Lakers. This flaw was apparent in game 2, as the Lakers sent hard double teams at Kevin Durant all game, opting to leave players like Tari Eason wide open.

This lack of spacing has also limited the paint opportunities, forcing the Rockets to settle for very difficult shots when they are inside the arc.

These problems are ones that plagued the Mavericks all season and would have been exposed if they had made it this far. To me, this further illustrates the need for a drastic increase in shooting, as no one wants to see Cooper Flagg double-teamed for entire playoff games.

Who: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

When: 12:300pm Arizona Time

Where: Mortgage Matchup Center — Phoenix, Arizona

Watch: NBC

Listen: KMVP 98.7

The 2026 postseason rolls on, and for the first time since May 7, 2023, playoff basketball returns to downtown Phoenix as the Suns welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The first two games have been a journey. The top-seeded Thunder have made mincemeat of a depleted Suns team, and while there is an opportunity tonight for Phoenix to grab one at home, nothing about it will come easily. The playoffs bring a different level of basketball. More physical. More intense. Every possession carries weight. Those are the exact reasons the Suns needed to get here, because a team that has turned the cultural corner needs to give its players a chance to feel these moments.

It is unfortunate that the opponent looks like a complete buzz saw, and sure, it feels like Phoenix is fighting with one arm tied behind its back. There is still room to surprise them. There is still room to learn.

That applies to head coach Jordan Ott as well. The Suns have lost the first two games by a combined 48 points, and the reasons why create the opportunity for adjustments. That becomes the main thing to watch tonight. Can the Suns adjust?

Probable Starters

Injury Report

Suns

• Grayson Allen — QUESTIONABLE (Left Hamstring Soreness)
• Mark Williams — OUT (Left Foot Soreness)
• Jordan Goodwin — QUESTIONABLE (Left Calf Soreness)

Thunder

• Isaiah Joe — DOUBTFUL (Personal Reasons)
• Thomas Sorber — OUT (Right ACL)
• Jalen Williams — OUT (Left Hamstring Strain)

Tale of the Tape

All statistics are ranked against all other 16 teams playing this postseason.

What to Watch For

Jalen Williams will not play in this one, and that matters. He has been a firecracker through the first two games of the postseason. While Shai Gilgeous Alexander is putting up 31 points on 49/50/79 splits, the support from Williams has helped drive everything. He is averaging 20.5 points, and that includes Game 2 when he tweaked his hamstring.

His absence is worth tracking. It shifts touches, it shifts rhythm, and it opens space for others to step in. Those ancillary pieces tend to rise at home, fed by the crowd and the energy in the building. Can Phoenix take advantage of that opening?

Key to a Suns Win

I laid out a few keys yesterday, and they still hold. Push the pace whenever you can. Catch Oklahoma City before they get set, because once they do, it turns into a problem.

Take care of the ball. The turnover discrepancy, 41-18, has crushed Phoenix through two games, and that cannot continue. And make the threes. The volume will be there. It always is. They have to convert. Get to 18 made threes and you give yourself a real chance to win this game.

Prediction

Maybe it’s optimism. Maybe it leans a little unrealistic. Game 3s have a way of tilting toward the home team, and that belief is hard to shake. Oklahoma City is a giant. No one is denying that. But David still has a couple of rocks in his pocket.

Suns 127, Thunder 122

What’s a night of playoff basketball without the Brotherhood?

It doesn’t happen very often, and it didn’t happen Friday night.

Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics beat the Philadelphia 76ers, 108-100. Luke Kennard helped JJ Redick’s Los Angeles Lakers beat the Houston Rockets, 112-108. Finally, Mason Plumlee and the San Antonio Spurs knocked off the Portland Trail Blazers, 120-108.

Tatum scored 25 against the Sixers, including a 3-point dagger to put Boston up 106-100. He also had 5 rebounds and 7 assists, as one of the greatest comebacks in NBA history continues to unfold.

Although he had an off-night from behind the line, shooting just 1-6 on three-pointers, Luke Kennard still scored 14 and had 6 rebounds and 6 assists.

Mason Plumlee got another DNP for San Antonio, but the Spurs won without big man Victor Wembanyama, who is in the concussion protocol.

• The Celtics might be seeing the best of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown
• Jayson Tatum reflects on clutch return in Celtics’ Game 3 win
• Celtics-76ers takeaways: Jayson Tatum delivers dagger 3, haunts Philadelphia once more
• “Nothing but Trust”: Jayson Tatum’s Clutch Display vs 76ers Has Jaylen Brown Praising Celtics Star’s Growth
• A Year After Devastating Injury, Jayson Tatum Leads Celtics To Game 3 Victory
• Jayson Tatum says he’s not at his best yet. He sure looked the part for Boston in a Game 3 win
• Kevin Garnett shuts down Paul Pierce’s “wild” suggestion to replace Austin Reaves with Luke Kennard
• NBA Playoffs: LeBron James explains exactly why his teammate has exploded against the Rockets
• Lakers News: Luke Kennard Explains Why JJ Redick Partnership Has Been So Great
• Luke Kennard punishing Clippers for not making a trade they needed
• Austin Reaves return gives JJ Redick the best kind of Lakers problem
• Luke Kennard silencing the biggest criticism of his play ahead of Lakers’ Game 3

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Our NBA player prop projections are all set for tonight's Game 3 matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic, with the model flagging several high-value opportunities.

By breaking down the data and stacking it up against current market lines, we’ve identified where the strongest edges lie.

These Pistons vs. Magic predictions aren’t based on feel — they’re backed by the numbers.

If you’re building out your card, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Saturday, April 25.

Pistons vs Magic computer picks for Game 3

Pistons	Magic
Cunningham u28.5 points  -117	Banchero o20.5 points -165
Duren u10.5 rebounds  -132	Suggs o4.5 assists -139
Thompson o2.5 assists -120	Wagner o4.5 rebounds -114

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Pistons Game 3 computer picks

Cade Cunningham Under 28.5 points (-117)

Projection: 26.7 points

As the series shifts to the Sunshine State, the Detroit Pistons are aiming to steal at least one game on the road against the Orlando Magic. Playing at the ninth-slowest pace in the league over their last 25 games, Detroit will look to control the tempo while carefully managing Cade Cunningham’s workload due to health concerns.

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Jalen Duren Under 10.5 rebounds (-132)

Projection: 10.4 rebounds

Jalen Duren averages 10.5 rebounds per game on the season, but he’s fallen short of that mark in each of the first two games of the series.

Now heading on the road, the Magic present another tough matchup on the glass, making it difficult for him to clear this number especially with Duren hitting the Under in eight of his last 10 games at a 10.5-rebound line.

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Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 assists (-120)

Projection: 2.7 assists

The Pistons could see an uptick in possessions in this matchup against Orlando, who rank as the fourth-fastest offense over their last 10 games.

That added pace should create more opportunities for Ausar Thompson to facilitate and make plays, especially after clearing his 2.5-assist line in seven of his last 10 outings.

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Magic Game 3 computer picks

Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 points (-165)

Projection: 21.6 points

The Magic have been productive offensively, averaging 117.4 points per game over their last 25 outings (10th in the league), but they’ll need more from Paolo Banchero to keep that momentum going—especially at the free-throw line.

This matchup against the Pistons sets up well for drawing contact, with opposing starting power forwards attempting 5.0 free throws per game over the last 10 (sixth-most in the league). The opportunity is there for Banchero & it just comes down to capitalizing and turning those chances into points in front of the home crowd.

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Jalen Suggs Over 4.5 assists (-139)

Projection: 4.8 assists

Jalen Suggs has been quietly effective as a facilitator, clearing his 4.5 assist line in five of his last 10 games, and this matchup sets up well for him to do it again in Game 3 against the Pistons.

With Orlando playing at a faster tempo lately, there should be more possessions to go around, giving Suggs additional opportunities to create.

His role as a secondary playmaker alongside Banchero and Wagner puts him in prime position to rack up assists, especially when defenses collapse on those primary scoring options.

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Franz Wagner Over 4.5 rebounds (-114)

Projection: 4.9 rebounds

Franz Wagner has been reliable on the glass in this series against the Pistons, clearing this line in both Game 1 and 2. Now back on his home floor, expect an extra boost of energy that could help him cash the Over once again.

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How to watch Pistons vs Magic Game 3

Location	Kia Center, Orlando, FL
Date	Saturday, April 25, 2026
Tip-off	1:05 p.m. ET
TV	Peacock

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I am 52. Most of my friends are around my age. On a regular basis, someone I know turns fifty.

And this is what I send them:

Five-Oh!

Today Tim Duncan turns the big 5-0!

Tim Duncan is one of the GOATs of the game, one who exemplified Spurs Culture and said more with his gaze than most do in a soliloquy.

In some cases, it got him in hot water.

He also had a great sense of humor.

Oh, yeah, and Tim was a killer basketball player.

May you have the best year to come, Big Fun. May you be surrounded by friends, and have lots of laughs.

Happy birthday, Timmy.

Welcome to the Thread. Join in the conversation, start your own discussion, and share your thoughts. This is the Spurs community, your Spurs community. Thanks for being here.

Our community guidelines apply which should remind everyone to be cool, avoid personal attacks, not to troll and to watch the language.

LeBron James was exhausted. Marcus Smart was drained. Luke Kennard was invisible.

The Lakers were cooked, the playoff magic finally drained from a team without its two leading scorers, a team in the process of making every conceivable mistake, reality bouncing off their feet and ricocheting off their hips and falling out of their hands.

On a jarring Friday night at Houston’s Toyota Center, the Rockets led by six with 30 seconds remaining and had possession of the ball. They just needed to get it upcourt. They just needed to play catch.

The Lakers were done.

And if you believe that, then you don’t believe what they believe.

They believed Smart would steal a terrible backcourt pass, absorb a terrible shooting foul and make three free throws.

Read more:Marcus Smart leads Lakers to commanding 3-0 lead over Rockets in playoff series

They believed James would knock away a dribble on the next possession, run to beyond the three-point line, take a pass from Kennard and sink a game-tying trey.

They believed in the miracle of forcing this game into overtime, then believed in the destiny of a 112-108 victory to take an historically insurmountable three-games-to-none lead in a first-round playoff series they should have lost.

How frantic was that finish? In the postseason over the last 29 years, NBA teams that led by six or more points in the last 30 seconds are now 1,713-2.

“It was just a gutty win for us,” James said.

Gutty, gritty, growling, great, great win.

“Everything that we needed to do, even when it wasn't pretty, we just kind of found a way to do it,” said coach JJ Redick. “And ... we're playing hard. I mean, that's what you have to do to put yourself in a position to win."

They are true believers, this bunch, as much as any Laker team has believed since the 2020 championship run, perhaps more than any other Lakers team in history.

They believe in their legendary leader, LeBron. They believe in the playoff-tough Smart. They believe in their connectivity, in their desperation, in their destiny.

They believe this is a special team. Once they get their two injured scorers back — and Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic are apparently returning faster than anyone imagined — they believe this could be a championship-contending team.

They will find out in the next round, when their opponent will be either the defending champions from Oklahoma City or the the Phoenix Suns.

Even if they finish off the Rockets in a sweep — and this series is already over considering NBA teams are 159-0 with a 3-0 lead — they will be considerable underdogs moving forward.

Surely they were lucky that star Kevin Durant didn’t play in two of these three games, including missing Friday’s Game 3 with a sprained ankle.

Surely they can’t keep winning games with 21 turnovers and half as many offensive rebounds and blown 15-point leads.

Surely that even if Reaves and Doncic return, they will revert to being the same team that lost to Oklahoma City by 43 points and lost to San Antonio by 16 in their most recent meetings while at full strength.

Surely they’re not this deep and committed and inspired as they’ve shown in these first three games.

Right? Wrong. Were you watching?

The Rockets used numerous Lakers mistakes and defensive mistakes to take the lead in the final five minutes and seemingly hold it for a series-changing victory. The dagger appeared to be a fastbreak dunk by Alperen Sengun to give the Rockets a 101-95 lead and eventually the ball with the crowd roaring and barely 30 seconds left.

Little did they know the Lakers had them right where they wanted them.

“We've talked ... about elevating everything,” said Redick, later adding, “You have to elevate your poise, you have to elevate your composure, recognizing that there's going to be moments where the crowd's going crazy or you get down, they make a run, whatever it may be. We weathered a lot tonight. ... And then, in that moment, just to have the poise to just keep playing."

The Lakers had that poise. The Rockets lost their cool.

In that moment... what was Jabari Smith Jr. doing throwing a looping backcourt pass to apparently nobody? And after Smart grabbed it and threw up a desperate three... what was Jae’Sean Tate doing fouling him?

“I see Tate running really fast and I’m like, 'OK, he probably not going to be able to stop in time,'" explained Smart. “So, I just pulled up right away and he ran right under me, exactly what happened. So, it was a smart play. That’s part of my vet, being a vet and my vet savvy. Been in the league for 12 years. I picked up some tricks from some guys.”

Even after the vet’s three free throws, the Rockets still could have easily won this, but... what was Reed Sheppard doing casually dribbling the ball upcourt without noticing James behind him? James knocked the ball away for the steal, eventually got it back, and drained a trey with 13 seconds remaining for the eventual overtime-sending gut punch.

"We don't have the luxury of being passive or being complacent," James said. “Our whole mindset is we have to do everything it takes in that particular game and that particular moment in that particular possession in order for us to win basketball games, because we don't have a long leash of error. We don't have a lot [of room] for error."

Once they reached the extra period, well, it was over the moment an angrily stunned Sengun threw a towel to the floor in front of the Rockets' bench moments after the end of regulation.

The Rockets were unnerved and eventually undone.

Smart started the extra period by hitting a three, then kept the Lakers' mojo going with a flying save of a rebound that became a Rui Hachimura layup.

Soon thereafter James went to the floor fighting for a ball, then missed a shot that Smart came out of nowhere to grab the offensive rebound, leading to two free throws that eventually put the game out of reach.

Even on a night when James scored 29 points, had 13 rebounds, and threw an ally-oop pass to son Bronny for a reverse layup — so cool! — the hero here was Smart.

He was signed by the Lakers last summer for his postseason toughness and savvy, and he showed every bit of it Friday, with 21 points, 10 assists and five steals. Not to mention, eight points in overtime.

“You got to leave it all on the court, because you never know," Smart said. ”Because you never know. It can be taken away at any moment, right? And with two of our best players down, we got to play desperate. We got to be the most desperate team and that’s how we have been playing and that’s how we are winning, right? The chemistry has been built because of that.”

It’s a chemistry that works. It’s a chemistry that has built a faith even amid Friday night’s immeasurably high hurdle, a faith that should persist beyond the framework of this finished first-round series.

Down six. Thirty seconds left. Steal the game. Steal the series.

Believe.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.