Since we first published this list, a few big names have signed deals (Austin Reaves, Trae Young, Isaiah Hartenstein), yet the biggest names are still on the board. Here is our updated list of the 15 top free agents still on the market one day before the official start of free agency (June 30 at 6 p.m. ET).
1. Jalen Duren (restricted)
There's a lot of sympathy around the NBA for Jalen Duren among players and agents — they all despise restricted free agency and how powerless it can leave a player. Duren is in that spot now, and while there have been reports of him looking for a sign-and-trade somewhere, the most another team could give him is four years, $177 million, a deal the Pistons would just match. Other teams know that and are not going to tie up their money for 48 hours waiting for that to play out. Reportedly, Duren is seeking something more like five years at $200+ million (more than $40 million per season on average), while the Pistons want to stay in the mid-$30 million-per-season range (say, five years, $180 million, or $36 million per year average). The expectation around the league is that the sides will find a middle ground (maybe in four years), and a deal will get done. There is no way Detroit lets him leave.
2. James Harden (player option)
This is another case where there's no question Harden will be back next season in Cleveland, the only questions are the years and the money on his new deal. As noted here previously, there is zero chance Harden gets traded from the Clippers to Cleveland without a handshake agreement for an extension already in place. The question is the number the sides land on with the new deal. Harden will decline his $42.3 million player option and sign a deal with a lower per-season number but a higher total.
3. LeBron James
When free agency starts on June 30, LeBron James will be a free agent. The latest reports say there has been little contact between the Lakers and LeBron's camp (led by agent Rich Paul) as the team has been focused on upgrading the roster at the five and on the wing. As it has been from the start, the question around LeBron's next team always comes back to the money. Golden State can offer up the mid-level exception of $15.1 million, and that may be the best free agent offer out there (and it keeps LeBron on the West Coast closer to his family).
Cleveland is a favorite target of speculation among fans, but the math doesn't work out. The most the Cavaliers can offer straight up is $3.9 million at the veteran minimum. While Cleveland is a fun sign-and-trade speculation (Max Strus or Cam Johnson coming to Los Angeles), the reality is that any sign-and-trade hard caps the Cavaliers at the first apron, and the team is already about $14 million over that number and would have to cut much more salary.
League sources continue to tell NBC Sports they expect the Lakers to get their other business done, then re-sign LeBron on a one- or two-year deal, at a price maybe less than what LeBron hopes but for more than anyone else is offering.
4. Peyton Watson (restricted)
Denver has made it very public that they intend to match any offer for Watson, a player who averaged 14.6 points a game last season, played well off Nikola Jokic, is a plus defender on the wing and shot 41.1% from 3-point range. Denver is also a team feeling a financial crunch under the aprons. All of which has other teams asking, "What would we have to offer before Denver could not match?" Jake Fischer and Marc Stein of The Stein Line reported that number could be around $30 million a year. The Lakers, Bulls and even Clippers have been mentioned, but would any really go that big to get Watson? This smells a lot like an agent trying to get Denver to up its offer to his client and get him every last dollar (which is exactly what an agent should do). The smart money is still on Watson staying in Denver, but the negotiations are getting interesting.
5. Walker Kessler (restricted)
Kessler is joining Duren in the "we hate restricted free agency" club. He is at a stalemate with the Jazz. It has been reported that Utah's offer to the 7'2" big man is five years, $140 million ($28 million per year average), and he and his agent are trying to squeeze more out of Utah. However, would the Lakers or any other team interested in him offer much more than what is on the table, or more bluntly, enough more to make Utah not match? Kessler is a player who has shown promise, but he also played just five games last season due to shoulder surgery. Also, there is a three-team trade floated online involving the Lakers and Heat (and Andrew Wiggins), a proposal a league source called "fanciful" speaking to NBC Sports. Much like Duren, Kessler and the Jazz will eventually find a number.
6. Norman Powell
The structure of the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade (the Heat used more than 100% of the traded player exception) means the Heat are hard capped at the first apron, leaving them about $18 million to fill in four roster spots. Powell made $20.5 million last season and, coming off an All-Star campaign, is looking for a raise. The math on him returning to Miami gets difficult without them making other moves. The Chicago Bulls are interested, and the Pistons have had their eyes on him. There is an increasing sense that Powell will be in a new home next season (a setback for the Heat's plans).
7. Rui Hachimura
If the Lakers end up bringing back guards Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard, Hachimura may be the odd man out. There are a lot of teams that could use a 6'8" forward who shot 44.7% from 3-point range last season and has shown the last couple of years that he can step up and be better on the big stages in the postseason. NBA insider Jake Fischer reported the Nets and Spurs are interested in Hachimura. The Spurs could use a big forward who can stretch the floor like him, it would be a natural fit. Wherever he signs, expect Hachimura to make a little more than the mid-level exception ($18-$20 million a season on average).
8. Tari Eason (restricted)
Eason is the archetype of a player every team could use: a 6'8" high-level defensive wing player who has started to find his shot and hit 35.8% from 3-point range last season. Which is why Eason will be given a qualifying offer from the Rockets making him a restricted free agent. Houston and Eason are reportedly not close to a deal, just as they could not reach one after last season (the Rockets reportedly offered him $100 million at the time). By all accounts Eason wants to remain in Houston, it's just a matter of money.
9. Andrew Wiggins
We'll know a lot more about Wiggins by the time free agency starts. Will he pick up his $30.2 million player option, or will he become a free agent? If he hits the open market, a number of teams would be interested, although the offers for him would likely be less per year and with the added security of extra seasons. A proven two-way wing who has won a ring before, a lot of teams could use Wiggins on their roster.
10. Tobias Harris
After the season, Pistons head of basketball operations Trajan Langdon publicly said they wanted to bring back Harris, but no deal has been reached, and other teams are reportedly lurking with interest (the San Antonio Spurs among them). There had been reports that the Pistons were "determined" to bring back Harris, but until a deal is agreed to, everything is on the table.
11. Marcus Smart
Smart has a $5.4 million player option he is largely expected to decline, and while the Lakers have said they want to bring him back, it all comes down to the money. Houston reportedly is interested, Smart played for current Rockets coach Ime Udoka in Boston. If he hits the market, other teams likely will be interested as well.
12. John Collins
A lot of teams that could use depth up front have their eye on Collins, a solid pick-and-roll big who can pop out and hit the 3 (he shot 40.6% last season) and is a respectable shot blocker and rim protector. The Clippers want to bring him back, but also the 76ers, Magic and Spurs are reportedly interested, according to Jake Fischer at The Stein Line.
13. Kristaps Porzingis
The expectation is that Porzingis and the Warriors will announce a new deal not long after free agency officially opens, reports Marc Stein and Jake Fischer. The only question is what the final number will be.
14. Draymond Green (player option)
The expectation in league circles remains that Green will opt out of his $27.7 million player option for next season and re-sign with the Warriors for two years at a slightly lower per-year number but with more total guaranteed money. If Green picks up that option, it's a sign the Warriors are using his salary in a much larger trade, but that seems unlikely.
15. Bennedict Mathurin
Mathurin came over to the Clippers in the Ivica Zubac trade, and in 26 games for LA, he averaged 17.4 points per game — he was good for them. Mathurin's elite skill is getting downhill and drawing fouls, things the Clippers could use (a contrast to Darius Garland), but after just drafting Keaton Wagler fifth in the NBA Draft, would Mathurin's minutes get squeezed? Some are expecting him to test the free agent waters — there is speculation about the Nets being interested, but that's what every agent leaks because they have cap space. He likely re-signs with the Clippers, although there has been some speculation that if the Clippers need to clear cap space they could renounce his rights.
