Category: Basketball

Keaton Wagler is the most important player on the LA Clippers roster.

That might sound ridiculous when we’re talking about a 19-year-old rookie who hasn’t played a meaningful NBA minute yet, but hear me out.

The Clippers’ future outlook is bleak after being handed the most substantial team penalty in NBA history. The punishment includes fines and suspensions, but the most damaging part is the loss of five first-round draft picks from 2029 through 2033.

The Kawhi Leonard trade helped soften the blow. LA was able to get two unprotected future first-round picks from Toronto, but I don’t think it can be overstated how important it is for Wagler to become a legitimate NBA player.

Over the next seven NBA drafts, the Clippers have only those two Toronto first-round picks that aren’t tied up in complicated swaps, protections or forfeitures.

Unless the Clippers acquire more picks through trades, they simply aren’t going to have many opportunities to add high-level young talent through the draft. Even making those trades becomes harder when half the league can offer a pile of first-round picks and the Clippers are basically searching the couch cushions.

That’s what makes Wagler so important.

If Wagler develops into a star, the Clippers already have the hardest piece of a rebuild sitting on their roster: a young cornerstone they can build around.

If he doesn’t?

Well, then the Clippers have a problem.

They selected Wagler fifth overall in June, making him their highest draft pick since Blake Griffin went No. 1 overall in 2009. At the time, it looked like the Clippers had found an opportunity to inject some young talent into one of the oldest rosters in basketball.

Less than three months later, that pick looks more like a lifeline.

Wagler doesn’t have to become a Hall of Famer. He doesn’t have to become the best player from the 2026 draft. Honestly, he doesn’t even have to become a superstar.

But the Clippers desperately need him to become something.

A 20-point-per-game scorer. A legitimate long-term starter. A secondary creator. Ideally, an All-Star.

Because the normal safety net is gone.

If a normal NBA team misses on a top-five pick, it hurts. But eventually they get another shot. They go back into the draft, take another swing and hope they get it right the next time.

The Clippers don’t have that luxury.

It’s basically the basketball version of Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy. Losing five first-round picks doesn’t magically make all of your other problems disappear. You can’t just yell “I DECLARE A REBUILD” and suddenly have a bunch of 20-year-olds and lottery picks show up.

The Clippers’ next clean opportunities in the first round are years away, and there’s no guarantee those Toronto picks eventually land anywhere near the top of the draft.

That means Wagler’s development could legitimately determine what the next era of Clippers basketball looks like.

Fortunately, there are plenty of reasons to believe in him.

Wagler went from an overlooked recruit to one of the best players in college basketball in a matter of months. As a freshman at Illinois, he averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists while shooting nearly 40 percent from three. He led Illinois to the Final Four, became the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and played himself all the way into being the No. 5 pick in the NBA Draft.

Now the Clippers need him to make another leap. And this is where his rookie season becomes fascinating.

Nobody should expect Wagler to walk into the NBA at 19 years old and immediately become the Clippers’ best player. There will be bad games. There will probably be stretches where he looks completely overwhelmed. That’s what happens with young guards in the NBA.

The Clippers can afford patience with Wagler.

What they can’t afford is for him to eventually become just another guy.

Because this isn’t simply a team hoping its top-five pick works out anymore. Every team hopes its lottery pick becomes a star.

For the Clippers, the stakes have changed. They aren’t just developing a promising rookie. They might be developing the player who determines whether this franchise can survive the consequences of one of the harshest punishments the NBA has ever handed down.

Send in your questions now for this week’s episode of The Pindown: A Detroit Pistons Podcast to discuss everything Pistons. Submit your question in the comments section here or on Twitter to @TheRealWesD3 and/or @RobbieBettelon. If you’re on BlueSky, you can also send to @RobbieBettelon.bksy.social.

Join us live on Friday afternoon as Wes and Robbie discuss Pistons news late into September. What questions would you like to add to the show?

Plus, The Pindown has a phone line where you can leave a message and hear your voice on the show. Call (313) 355-2717 and leave us a voicemail with your question. Please try to keep the message around 45 seconds or less so we can fit everyone into the show.

The podcast will be uploaded to all audio platforms the following morning.

The Pindown: A Detroit Pistons Podcast Vitals:

When: Friday, September 18th at 4:30 p.m. ET

Where: Detroit Bad Boys YouTube Channel

How to submit questions:

• Detroit Bad Boys Website: Comment section of the weekly Pindown episode articles.
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As always, leave any questions or topics you want to be discussed in the comment section below.

Go Stones.

We polled the Mavs Moneyball readership a couple of weeks back on how many games the readership expected Dereck Lively II to play in 2026-27, a year removed from a lost season of just seven games.

I was shocked at how many of you answered “zero” and seemed to mean it.

If Lively plays zero games this year, keeping him around for the promise of “next year” after two straight full seasons lost would seem like a fool’s errand.

But perhaps you were wise to keep your expectations at a minimum. After all, our Feed post came roughly a month after Lively himself admitted, on June 26, that he’s “not able to run and jump yet” and that he’s “taking my time… more time than I need to make sure that I don’t have to deal with this foot again.”

Those were not inspiring words at the time. Lively played his final game of the 2025-26 season on Nov. 21 last year against the New Orleans Pelicans, in what ended as a 118-115 win. The team announced Lively’s season-ending surgery on Dec. 10 after persistent discomfort and swelling dogged his recovery.

So what do these photos of Lively working out on campus at Duke, where he played his lone season of college basketball, as part of this year’s Brotherhood offseason sessions, mean? Lively certainly appears to have put in some upper-body work while his right foot has been out of commission.

Sure, the photos of Lively from last weekend are still images. He’s not featured in the scrimmage highlights that the Duke social media team has put out there, like his teammates Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg are. He’s still not ready for that kind of run, which, yes, still gives massive doubt as to whether and when he’ll be able to return to full-speed action on an NBA court any time soon.

But we’re searching. We’re seekers. We’re searching for any signs of optimism in Lively’s recovery arc here. And we’re finding it at the Gun Show. He looks absolutely yoked, relative at least to the skinny, athletic youngster we knew him as when he last consistently gave the Mavs any real minutes.

We love to see it. They put a little more wind in our sails as the offseason begins to feel more and more like the preseason.

Irving and Lively are our last link to that recent iteration of the Mavericks that made fans feel anything at all. We need to see them contributing to something worthwhile on the basketball court, if only for our own sanity at this point.

The next hopeful signal from the Mavericks’ front office or coaching staff concerning Lively’s recovery from the foot injury will be the first. We don’t expect him to be ready to go when the season starts on October 21 at the Houston Rockets, which is just over a month from now, by the way.

But we need to see more from Lively in relatively short order, and these recent photos are the only thing delivering at the moment. There’s literally more of him, get it? Because of all the added muscle?

I’ll show myself out.

You love Pete Nance. I love Pete Nance. The Milwaukee Bucks love Pete Nance. Yet, here we are. Life support. 

Nance’s story is one of perseverance and it doesn’t take much digging to work out why. From the beginning, his NBA career has been in and out of the ER. Heck, his personal transaction list even looks like an ECG:

• January 18, 2023: Signed a 10-day contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
• September 13, 2023: Signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
• October 21, 2023: Waived by the Cleveland Cavaliers.
• February 19, 2024: Signed a two-way contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
• October 19, 2024: Waived by the Cleveland Cavaliers.
• December 3, 2024: Signed a two-way contract with the Philadelphia 76ers.
• January 7, 2025: Waived by the Philadelphia 76ers.
• January 14, 2025: Signed a two-way contract with the Philadelphia 76ers.
• February 6, 2025: Waived by the Philadelphia 76ers.

Signed, waived. Signed, waved. Up, down. Up, down. Then, just when you think he’s stable:

• February 27, 2025: Signed a two-way contract with the Milwaukee Bucks.
• March 23, 2026: Converted from a two-way contract to a regular contract by the Milwaukee Bucks.

Full-blown arrhythmia: 

• July 3, 2026: Waived by the Milwaukee Bucks.
• July 8, 2026: Signed a multi-year contract with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Oh, and that contract is non-guaranteed—and therefore the easiest way for the Bucks to start to solve their roster crunch. Talk about a heart attack. 

Naturally, then, Nance’s value is hard to pin down. How can he be trusted in the playoffs if he can’t be trusted with a guaranteed contract? And if that makes your blood boil—or increases your blood pressure—you wouldn’t be alone. After all, on court, Nance is a stud; every coach’s dream player. 

Offensively, Nance is the ultimate glue guy. Need the right extra pass? He’ll make it. Need movement off ball to free up space? Or a screen to right a broken possession? Nance has you covered. And from a process point of you, he’s elite; you’d be hard pressed to find a clip of him making the wrong decision. 

He has some game too. Beyond the little things, Nance is a marksman from deep, boasting a career 42% mark from three and an elite overall true shooting percentage (career 61.8%; 63.9% last year), making him both a valuable spacer and pick and pop threat. In turn, he’s a fine cutter, timing his off ball movement well, and a savvy passer who seldom turns it over (11.6% turnover rate). But he almost never gets to the line—just 11 times last year and 15 total in 68 career games—and can too easily become Hollow Man. But, hey, that’ll happen when you’re limited to a lowly 13.5% usage percentage. 

On the defensive end, Nance is, you guessed it, solid. He won’t wow you with on-ball thievery or come-out-of-nowhere blocks, but he’ll hustle and play the angles and fight hard. Having said this, his board work leaves a lot to be desired. Last year, his total rebound percentage (9.6%) was closer to his point guards than his bigs: Cole Anthony was at 9.3%, Kevin Porter Jr. 8.9%, and Ryan Rollins 8.0%, while Jericho Sims was at 15.9% and Myles Turner 11.2%. Part of this is size, part of it is athleticism. Both of these contribute to Nance’s pedestrian block (1.9%) and steal (0.9%) rates, too, and also limit his defensive versatility—he’s not someone who can guard up or down all that effectively. But, again, he’s steady, thanks in large part to his nous.

So, while Nance may be destined for an NBA career in and out of proverbial health care, it’s fitting. Primum non nocere. 

Pete Nance does no harm. 

Now that Nance has flatlined, who’s next?

‘Internal development’ was up there as one of the key phrases of the Minnesota Timberwolves 2024-25 offseason. Alongside ‘continuity’, the two were constantly used as the main themes to describe how Minnesota would take another step forward after their back-to-back Western Conference Finals trips.

I think we can all agree that while it was fun to track this supposed ‘internal development’ and see the leaps and bounds that the young core took last season, by the time October rolled around, we were all fatigued by a term that had come to mean nothing.

It’s not like these supposed developments were a choice for the team; there just wasn’t much else to discuss, as the front office decided to run the team back in basically the exact same iteration as the year prior.

This year feels different though.

Because of how quickly the NBA moves, combined with the massive roster overhaul that Minnesota went through this offseason, it feels like the internal development aspect of the roster has gone by the wayside.

When the Julius Randle trade happened, it seemed like the internal improvement theme could have been even more prominent than before. With Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Ayo Dosunmu all seemingly in line for bigger roles, it felt like the Wolves were preparing for a youth movement, highlighting their assumed core.

That is, until LaMelo Ball became a Timberwolf and Jonathan Kuminga followed him to Minnesota. Because of the big changes, internal development was pushed down the priority list.

Still, it’s important to focus on the players who were already here and who will hopefully have a great impact on the team this season, as well as some things that they could add to their games as training camp nears.

This piece will zero in on the young players who have been in Minnesota for multiple seasons and are likely to have a larger role on the team this season – namely Edwards, McDaniels, and TJ Shannon.

Let’s dive into the ideal aspects of each of these players’ games, and I encourage you all to make your voices heard on each player to gather information on what you want to see added to these three players’ bags for the upcoming season. Fill the comments – maybe Chris Finch will take your words to heart!

Anthony Edwards

As with everything else on this team, the starting place has to be with Ant. There have been easy storylines to track the last two seasons.

Two seasons ago, his focus was the three-point shot. He then became one of the best three-point shooters in the league. One season ago, his focus shifted to the mid-range. He then increased his mid-range field goal percentage by six percentage points, according to Cleaning the Glass.

What could be the focus this offseason?

Point of attack defense

With the changes to the roster this offseason, there is an opportunity for Ant to take the reins on the defensive side of the ball, especially at the point of attack. In years past, his offensive load and the energy he would have to expend on that end of the floor made it hard for him to ramp up his defensive impact. He would consistently be given the assignment of the fifth option and often left things on the table on that side of the ball.

Now that LaMelo Ball is in town, his defense becomes important twofold. First, Ball will most likely be the one that the Timberwolves will be forced to hide on defense. That will naturally increase Ant’s defensive assignment. Second, LaMelo’s ability to take off some of the offensive pressure and initiation responsibilities from Edwards should boost Ant’s energy on the defense.

Ant has shown great ability to be a true stopper on defense, especially on the ball. He is strong and athletic, and when he applies himself, capable of shutting down offensive superstars. His internal development path would be to take that challenge on more consistently and get back to the defender that he was as recently as the 2023-24 season.

This could also help take the burden off of Jaden McDaniels’ defensive responsibilities and allow him to be more of a Swiss Army knife game wrecker that he has the ability to be. If Ant can be the primary perimeter stopper, Jaden can be the help-side defender he has always been destined to be. Alongside Rudy Gobert, this would give Minnesota an immediate top-five defense with championship upside.

Playing in transition

Another great thing that Ant could get in the lab for this offseason would be to prepare himself to play faster. With the addition of LaMelo Ball, calling it vital would be an understatement.

Edwards has always shown a propensity to want to walk the ball up and prod the defense before making a decision on what he wants to do with the ball. Playing with the likes of Mike Conley Jr. and Julius Randle only furthered this habit that Ant created for himself.

Conley as the slow and methodical setup man and Randle as a prodder. With the addition of Ball, who thrives in transition, this could be a way that Ant could easily increase his scoring average. There are free points to be had; he just has to be willing to run for them.

The way that this roster is now constructed, it should lend itself to improving this part of his game – but he has to be along for the ride. In years past, you saw his willingness to get out and run in transition when the personnel on the floor set that tone.

In a way, Ant loves to enable the play style of those around him. When he was out there with Mike Conley and Julius Randle, he wanted to dissect. When he’s out there with LaMelo Ball, Jonathan Kuminga, the “Twin Turbos”, etc., it should lead to him running out more. He even said as much in a quote last season.

If this is the thing he focused on all summer, there is a real chance he leads the league in scoring.

Consistency of effort

The last option that could be a great development from the summer is Ant’s consistency of effort on a night-to-night basis.

This has been well-covered and was a big quote from him on media day last year. He was hoping to bring it every night no matter the opponent. He failed to do so last year.

His ability to set the tone this year will also be a big part of his growth in leadership as he hits his prime. With the lack of veterans on this team and the quote from Chris Finch in his offseason interview with Britt Robson about “taking the diapers off,” this seems like a priority.

The good news with this part of his offseason development is that he’s shown all the signs that this is happening. He’s been in the gym all the time working out and has shown his willingness to set the example for the team in this regard. This commitment to effort, if added to his game this offseason, would have a massive trickle-down effect in the regular season: a more consistently locked-in Ant should lead to more regular-season wins, which means a higher seed and potential homecourt advantage for more of the playoffs, which is key if you’re wanting to make a run in the modern NBA.

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels may currently be the most overlooked player of the offseason. Early this summer, fans were clamoring over his breakout, only to go quiet when the focus shifted to LaMelo Ball. Still, his ability to take another leap could be a huge boost to this team’s title aspirations.

He has taken offensive leaps every season, with the biggest boon coming from his 32-point masterclass that sent the Denver Nuggets packing in the first round this past season. So what are some skills to bring in the next level of his development?

Efficiency off the catch

If you initially thought that Jaden would have the ball in his hands more after the Julius Randle trade, the addition of LaMelo Ball reduced that need by a large amount. The good news is, LaMelo is a ball mover while Randle was more of a ball stopper. There should be more of an opportunity for McDaniels to assert himself in this type of offensive ecosystem.

Ball and Edwards will command a ton of gravity and attention defensively, which should lead to McDaniels having one-on-one matchups against lesser defenders that he can take to the woodshed. While Rudy Gobert will still be at the rim, Ball and Edwards’ shooting ability will leave space for him to operate in his spots in the mid-range.

McDaniels has usually been the one to have to sacrifice his opportunities for the good of the team, but there is more space this year for him to command more on the offensive end of the floor. Though that may seem counterintuitive when you add a high-usage player in Ball, Jaden should get much more opportunities to play off the catch against a tilted defense.

His efficiency in these situations will be crucial to raising the ceiling of this offense and becoming a top third option in the league. If this is something he improves upon this offseason, this offense becomes even more potent.

Offense as a screener

While the addition of Jonathan Kuminga does answer a big question of the roster and fills a good amount of minutes at the power forward, there are still minutes available at the four that could be filled by a small-ball lineup with Jaden in that position. The advanced stats haven’t favored Jaden playing the power forward – he had -8.7 net rating in last season, and a -2.4 two seasons ago according to Cleaning the Glass – but the sample size has not been large enough to make any concrete conclusions.

I am very intrigued by this option of a small-ball lineup having Jaden play as a power forward. A big part of my rationale for this optimism is about his offense as a screen-setter.

The LaMelo addition could create great synergy between him and McDaniels, as well as Ant and McDaniels, in pick and roll/pop offense. This may be a fun wrinkle to the offense. Anytime Jaden has been used as a screener in the past, it’s looked shockingly good. His short roll game could be something that pops and is a way to get him involved in the offense while getting him the ball in advantage situations. He is a killer in the mid-range, which is exactly where this would get him the ball as screening situations.

If he were to develop this part of his game this offseason, it could lead to great profit.

Rebounding prowess

The other offseason focus that would be a great addition to his game would be consistent rebounding.

Surprisingly, even when Minnesota deployed big lineups, they were mediocre in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage over the past few seasons (outside of the 23-24 season, when they ranked ninth in defensive rebounding percentage).

This will be a point of emphasis this season, with the overall trend of wanting to create more possessions in general, and the rebounding battle is one of the main ways to do that. Jaden McDaniels has left a lot to be desired in this aspect of his game over the years. This could be attributed to his responsibilities as the primary point-of-attack defender. It often leaves him far from the basket in many possessions. If Edwards and Kuminga can help take some of the POA defending pie, it could allow Jaden more opportunities to clean the glass.

His rebounding peaked in the two seasons ago at 5.7 per game, but dropped back to 4.2 last year. With the three-point volume that LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards bring to the table, it would be great for him to find ways to create extra possessions on the offensive glass.

This quote is from 2025 and still rings true.

TJ Shannon

Terrence Shannon Jr. had a brutal start to last season, with injuries and getting benched derailing any kind of rhythm he could find for himself. After finally returning to full health late in the season and playing a crucial role in beating the Nuggets in the first round, his role should be a big story to track this year. His ability as a play initiator was unlocked late in the season, but he will need to develop a different part of his game.

There is no longer any usage to go around. That will be his first and biggest test.

Recognition of role

This is broad, but it will be key for his ability to be a big part of the Timberwolves bench this season. Shannon needs to be malleable to many different play styles and know when to take more on-ball usage versus being impactful in an off-ball role.

He does have the ability to play with the ball in his hands, but his ability to click into the different parts of his offensive game depending on who he’s on the floor with has been a major issue to date and will determine how many minutes he’s able to play.

Without Ant and LaMelo, Minnesota will need his aggression and ability to effectively collapse the defense. When he’s out there with one or both of them, he’ll need to find his off-ball niche and kick up his defensive acumen to be a true, well-rounded rotation player. This cognitive recognition and ability to click into different play styles would be a big development in his offseason.

Off-ball playmaking

Shannon is an explosive player who, in theory, should be good at playing off the catch, but he struggled in an off-ball role last season. His improvement in that regard is what will help him to stick on this team and in the NBA.

His development and how he could be deployed should be similar to that of Jaden McDaniels. While Jaden did have a much higher defensive ceiling, it’s easy to see how they could be used similarly on the offensive end. Early in Jaden’s career, his offensive role was also limited to playing out of the corner, which made it hard for him to be as effective as he could be on that end of the floor because of his below-average corner three-point shooting. It was when Chris Finch moved him to playing above the break more that he really started to flourish.

This could be a similar way to help TJ be more effective. Shannon plays way better when he has options available to him rather than just the linear progressions that a player out of the corner is expected to do. This could be a way to marry his on-the-ball ability with the usage issue and get him with a head of steam heading to the basket and making plays out of that. This kind of offseason development could solidify him in a seventh-man role this season.

Off-ball defense

TJ Shannon has had his struggles defensively. Specifically, he fouled way too much. However, he does have the size and athleticism to make a difference on that end of the floor. While the coaching staff could entrust him with some point-of-attack responsibilities, it would be a huge development if he could find ways to make things happen off the ball.

If he astutely plays passing lines to force turnovers, it can really help generate transition opportunities where he is incredibly lethal.

Cutting down the fouling while being a key cog on the defensive end could also help him see the floor more and more. If he worked on creating these opportunities himself, it would only make him even more impactful.

Internal development is one of the hardest things to track, but it makes a big impact on the on-court product. The Timberwolves mostly focus on integrating external additions, but internal improvement will also be key in reaching the level they want to get to.

The NBA’s Eastern Conference has been clearly inferior to the Western Conference from the moment Michael Jordan called his second retirement after the 1998 Finals. That might finally flip this year. While the West is still home to the league’s top two title contenders in our preseason poll, the East feels stronger 1-10 entering the season for the first time since MJ won his sixth ring in Chicago.

There’s no doubt that the New York Knicks are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference come playoff time. Will that hold during the regular season? The Knicks won 53 games last year, good for the No. 3 seed in the conference. They didn’t find greatness until the playoffs, then put together one of the most dominant championship runs ever.

Let’s rank the Eastern Conference for the regular season only heading into the 2026-27 campaign. This was an incredibly difficult exercise. The Knicks might be the only team that feels like a lock to win at least one series in the East entering the season, and the teams ranked 2-10 in our projection truly feel like they could finish in any order. Check out our latest NBA power rankings for a full picture of the league based championship chances entering the season. Now, let’s predict how teams will finish the East this year.

1. Boston Celtics

I’ve convinced myself the Jaylen Brown trade was the right move for Boston after initially being lukewarm on it. Brown took a lot of shots and wasn’t super efficient with them, his off-ball defense has never been good, and he turns it over a little too much. The Celtics are basically replacing him with a full season of Jayson Tatum, plus Paul George and Mitchell Robinson. This team is really good in the regular season every year, and I don’t expect that to stop. I really think Derrick White is going to shoot the ball better this year, and I could easily see a big leap for Payton Pritchard with more usage. The Celtics’ formula of chucking threes, crashing the offensive glass, and playing tough defense is hard to beat. I wouldn’t pick them to go to the NBA Finals, but I think they will win a lot of regular season games.

2. New York Knicks

“Knicks or the field” is a fair way to frame the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. Mike Brown found something special with this group during the last postseason, and with most of the rotation back and no one expected to fall victim to age-related decline, the Knicks should be a juggernaut again. The Knicks can get the 1-seed if they really want it, but they don’t need it. Regardless of where they enter the playoff race, this is still the team to beat when the games count for real.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland has averaged 53.75 wins per year in their four seasons with Donovan Mitchell, with one first round exit, two second round appearances, and finally a trip to the conference finals last year. Do the Cavs have one more step left in them? Last year’s playoff run wasn’t all that convincing, and at this point Cleveland needs a few things to go right just to avoid being passed up by their conference rivals. Can James Harden stave off age-related decline for one more year at 37 years old? Will Evan Mobley show any growth in his offensive game from last season? Peyton Watson is the only real new addition this year, and it’s possible he can be the athletic wing defender and spot-up shooter the Cavs have always lacked in the Mitchell era. I’m not sold that Watson’s hot January last year is proof he’s a totally new player from earlier in his career, but he better be because Cleveland paid a heavy price to get him. This feels like Cleveland’s weakest bench in the last couple years, and that puts a lot of pressure on the stars to stay healthy. The Cavs will be tough again, but I could see them taking a small step back this year.

4. Orlando Magic

There’s a surprise team in the East every year based on the preseason over/unders, and I feel like that team is usually young and athletic. Orlando was my preseason Finals pick last year, which proved to be a terrible call. Yet when the playoffs rolled around, the Magic looked like a different team, and they should have pulled a 1-8 upset on the Pistons if Franz Wagner didn’t get hurt with a 3-1 lead. I truly believe Jalen Suggs is the skeleton team that unlocks this team. Suggs has battled constant injuries during his short career, and at this point it’s fair to wonder if he’s best deployed in a smaller role a la Alex Caruso. If Suggs can stay on the floor, the Magic could regain their status as an elite defensive team under new head coach Sean Sweeney. Sweeney was the only real change Orlando made over the offseason, and he has a ton of pressure on his shoulders to make this team work given their high payroll even before Anthony Black starts his extension talks. The pairing between Paolo Banchero and Wagner just shouldn’t be this bad even if both are poor shooters. I’m going to guess the results are finally better this year .

5. Toronto Raptors

Toronto had a top-5 defense last year behind Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles, and they earned some valuable playoff experience by pushing the Cavs to seven games in the first-round. The main thing the Raptors were missing is someone who could score against a set defense in the halfcourt, and it’s hard to do better than adding Kawhi Leonard. The upgrade from Brandon Ingram to Leonard could make the Raptors a legit Finals contender … provided Leonard can actually finish the season healthy for once. It’s not a great bet. For whatever it’s worth, Leonard did cross the 65 game threshold in two of the last three seasons, but finishing a full playoff run might be an even tougher test. The Raptors could have a hole in the middle if Jakob Poeltl remains troubled by a bad back, which would mean CMB small-ball five minutes could essentially go from a changeup to a fastball. The shooting is a concern for sure after finishing 25th in three-point rate and 21st in three-point percentage last year, and it’s critical that Barnes keeps trending up in that department. The Raptors will make every game a rock fight, but it’s going to be really hard to score on Murray-Boyles, Leonard, and Barnes when it matters, and the offense has a real late-game scoring plan now. A lot can go wrong, but I’m buying the Raptors as one of the East’s top title contenders.

6. Philadelphia 76ers

I’m higher on the Sixers’ playoff ceiling than their regular season projection. It’s hard to count on LeBron James to play a full season at 42 years old, and it’s hard to count on Joel Embiid at all. The Sixers have some nice bench pieces, but they don’t really have a reliable backup center unless Adem Bona or Ariel Hukporti takes a step forward. I’m worried that this team will be soft defensively during the regular season until LeBron turns it up in the playoffs, and I’m a bit skeptical that a player like Jaylen Brown can take to a more off-ball role with so many other scorers around him. This team made the second round last year, and they feel significantly improved this season. Anything less than the franchise’s first conference finals trip since 2001 will be a disappointing, but you can’t blame Philly fans for thinking this season is championship-or-bust.

7. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons smashed their over/under last year by winning 60 games to claim the No. 1 seed, but it was easy to see the problems they were bound to encounter in the playoffs. After nearly losing to Orlando in round one, Detroit remade the look of the team a bit over the summer by adding John Collins, Isaiah Joe, and Taurean Prince, and subtracting Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, and Caris LeVert. I’m not sure it’s going to be any easier for the Pistons to score in the halfcourt this year, and Harris feels like he could be missed as the second-best creator on last year’s team. The spacing is always going to be an issue with Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson sharing the floor, and while I’m bullish on the Joe addition, he won’t change the geometry of the floor by himself. The Pistons should win a lot of regular season games again, but I’m not convinced they took a step toward making it out of the East this summer.

8. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are the hardest team to project entering the season, and I’m already worried I have them way too low. Tyrese Haliburton impacts winning nearly as much as any player in the league, and I’d expect Indiana to be really good again once he gets comfortable coming off a torn Achilles. Most of the 2025 Finals team around him remains in place with a couple key changes. Ivica Zubac won’t space the floor like Myles Turner did, but he does add more toughness and better rebounding on the interior. The bench feels a bit thinner than the last time Haliburton was healthy, but Kelly Oubre Jr. could be a decent free agent addition. The Pacers were a good-not-amazing regular season team when they reached the Finals two seasons ago with 50 wins, and I could see them outplaying their regular season record again come playoff time once Haliburton gets into a rhythm.

9. Miami Heat

The Heat have the most talented front court in the East with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, but neither of them are outside shooters, and that’s bound to present some spacing problems offensively. Miami did well to land some shooting around them by signing Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr., but it still feels like Giannis will be seeing a lot of bodies in the paint this year. The Heat are arguably the best team in the league at finding hidden gems, and they will need to do it again this season to bolster the depth. I like Pelle Larsson as a potential deep breakout guy, and Ryan Conwell and Dru Smith should get plenty of opportunities, too. If Giannis is the best player in the East and Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the NBA, then why is Miami so low? I don’t really trust Giannis to stay healthy for an entire regular season, for one. I could see Miami being really tough in the playoffs, and we already know they can reach the NBA Finals from the play-in because they did it in 2023. The Heat have some real questions, but chances are Spo will figure things out.

10. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks missing the top-8 of the East playoff bracket in this projection might be the best example of the conference’s improvement. Atlanta is a very solid team that had a strong offseason coming off a playoff appearance where they were the only team to take multiple games off the Knicks. The trio of Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and newly added Lu Dort might be the best group of perimeter defenders in the league. Onyeka Okongwu started to turn into a legit stretch five last year, and Jalen Johnson could be a perennial All-Star as the team’s closest thing to a franchise player. I just worry that Atlanta will be really dependent on CJ McCollum again for halfcourt creation until rookie Kingston Flemings is ready for primetime, and he’s still a cut below the other star creators in the East. It’s possible I’m too low on Atlanta, but hey! The East is really good.

11. Charlotte Hornets

I hated the LaMelo Ball trade for Charlotte, but even I can see the vision long-term … especially if Ball’s ankles can’t stay healthy. The Hornets were the best team in the league by net-rating after Jan. 1 last year, so it feels odd to trade your best player for not the greatest haul of assets. There’s still plenty of reason to think this year’s Hornets will still be competitive even without the star point guard. Head coach Charles Lee has built a strong identity with a team that will chuck threes and crash the offensive glass. Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller should be able to pick up a little bit of the creation burden, and Coby White is a solid veteran replacement at point guard. The Hornets lacked toughness inside last year, and while Naz Reid can help add more offensive firepower, they still need an enforcer down low. If Charlotte exceeds expectations, they have tons of assets to make a big deal. It sure seems like the Hornets are comfortable playing the long game, though.

12. Washington Wizards

I wish I could buy into the Wizards this year with Anthony Davis, Trae Young, A.J. Dybantsa and a slew of interesting young players in tow, but I can’t fully get there. Davis is famously unreliable, and I’m not convinced he’ll be on the team the whole season. Head coach Brian Keefe hasn’t shown me anything. I like Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson, and Will Riley, but it’s usually pretty hard to develop that many young players and still have playoff expectations. The Wizards finished dead-last in defensive efficiency last season, and they still have tons of questions on that end even with Davis. Dybantsa will be awesome, but I’m not solid on the Wiz yet.

13. Brooklyn Nets

I trust the Nets to beat their very low expectations coming into the season … provided they don’t trade Michael Porter Jr. before opening night. Porter enjoyed a career-year under Jordi Fernandez in Brooklyn last season one year after Cam Johnson enjoyed similar success. Fernandez is one of the best young coaches in the game, and he has a little more talent to work with this season with the arrival of Julius Randle. Add in a potential sophomore leap from Egor Demin, a possible center upgrade with Day’ron Sharpe taking over for Nic Claxton, and the arrival of rookie guard Mikel Brown Jr., and I like Brooklyn more than the early prognostications. Fernandez will get the most out of this group as long as it doesn’t sell off parts.

14. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are beginning yet another rebuild under new lead executive Bryson Graham, but this one is already off to a more promising start after moving up in the lottery for Caleb Wilson. Wilson has the tools and the mentality to eventually become the franchise player Chicago has been desperate for, and his sudden improvement as a three-point shooter during summer league feels like a great sign for his ability to continue to improve. Wilson and Matas Buzelis should produce tons of above-the-rim plays on both ends of the floor this season, but the Bulls are still staring down a long road to contention. This team could be pretty weak on the glass after landing Nic Claxton as their new center, and the perimeter defense is going to be an issue with Josh Giddey and Norm Powell at the point of attack. The spacing around Wilson remains a question mark, and it’s likely going to produce an ugly halfcourt offense. No one is expecting the Bulls to be good this year, but it’s important that new head coach Tiago Splitter can show progress with this group as the season goes on. Expect the roster to look quite a bit different a year from now as Graham continues to put his stamp on the team.

15. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are going to be pretty sad in their first season without Giannis, but you don’t have to search too hard to find a few reasons for optimism. Kel’el Ware was a nice get in the trade as an athletic big man who can space the floor, rookie lottery picks Brayden Burries and Nate Ament will get a long runway to show their long-term talent, and new coach Taylor Jenkins has a history of getting the most of his teams. I love Ryan Rollins as a lead guard with more untapped upside, and I’m willing to buy Kasparas Jakucionis as an upsdie gamble for the backcourt. Milwaukee would do well to trim the fat here, starting with moving off Myles Turner and Kyle Kuzma. It’s hard to know what to make of Tyler Herro as he enters a contract year, but I’d be surprised if he’s around long-term. For now, the Bucks will probably be pretty bad, there’s already a decent collection of young talent on the roster with more assets coming down the pipe from the Giannis trade.

Every day, we’ll take a closer look at another member of the 2026-27 Phoenix Suns, examining what they bring to the roster and what their role could mean for the season ahead as we count down to training camp and the preseason.

Ryan Dunn

Forward, 6’7”, 217 lbs., 23 years old, 3rd season

Oh, Ryan Dunn. Where do we start with you?

Dunn has had a very up-and-down two-year career thus far. The highs have been high, and the lows have been low. He enters a pivotal third season. This will be the first season he has had the same head coach since Budenholzer was canned after his rookie season.

Dunn was selected 28th overall in the 2024 NBA Draft, and was joined by Oso Ighodaro (pick 40) as a pair of young, athletic, defensive-minded prospects hitting a roster which at the time had approximately *checks notes* zero players like that.

Now, with a year in Jordan Ott’s system, we can only hope that everything starts to “click” for him offensively. On defense, he was good, but was not the defender we had all hoped he would be.

Last Season

Ryan Dunn appeared in 70 games for the Suns last season, including 16 starts. He did not take the leap that many had hoped for in year two, specifically on the offensive side. His free-throw numbers remained atrocious at 48.9%, giving him a sub-50 FT% for the second consecutive season. His three-point clip slightly improved from 31.1 percent to 33.1 percent.

He only had two games of scoring 15+ points all of last season, once against the Spurs (17 points) in November and the other time being that April regular season finale game against the Thunder (20 points). Dunn had 8 games of 20+ minutes played with 2 points or less. It’s not all about points per game, but when the efficiency is shaky and teams are sagging off you entirely, it’s a problem.

There were some positive moments without a doubt, especially defensively. It was easy to see a vision of him and Rasheer Fleming wreaking havoc together defensively. He still has the ability to be a very useful rotation piece, and could get there as soon as this season.

Contract and Roster Context

Dunn, the 28th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, remains on a rookie contract. He signed a 4-year, $12,998,353 contract with the Suns, including $5,188,560 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $3,249,588.

In 2026-27, Dunn will earn a base salary of $2,784,240, while carrying a cap hit of $2,784,240 and a dead cap value of $2,784,240. Phoenix has a $5,025,553 club option for 2027-28 that they have to exercise by October 31st, 2026. The clock is ticking!

What He Brings

Right now, the one thing you know Ryan Dunn will bring is effort and energy. Defensively, he has some serious flashes, whether it’s being a pest on the perimeter, deflecting passes, or meeting people at the rim for a weakside block. One thing I never question is his hustle or heart when he hits the floor. It’s always there.

The defensive instincts are there, but he just needs to learn how to piece it all together more consistently, and not let his offensive struggles creep into his confidence when he’s on the other side of the floor. He brings athleticism and has put several stars on posters, including Giannis. His fearlessness when in attack mode is a strong suit, and I wish he pursued entering that mode far more often.

To put it simply, Phoenix needs Ryan Dunn to be a (bigger) bodied forward who can defend multiple positions and not hurt them offensively. If he can get to the point where he’s even justnet-neutral offensively, and his defense continues to strengthen with experience, then the path to get there could be sooner than you think.

What Needs to Improve

It’s pretty clear at this point that Ryan Dunn needs to improve offensively. More specifically, shooting the ball. He and Oso have been left wide open for extended stretches, which kills spacing and gives the defense an advantage to contain other offensive threats by sending extra bodies or having the help defense loom a couple steps closer. Those two steps could be the difference. He has to be a threat to the point where he at least has *some* respect from the defense.

As we noted above, his three-point clip slightly improved from 31.1 percent to 33.1 percent. Progress, right? Not exactly, once you realize it came on 1.2 fewer attempts per game.

Can we get the volume back up a bit on a 34.1% clip this year? I think most Suns fans would take that.

Confidence is everything for Dunn. He thrives off it. When it’s lost, it shows on both ends.

Prediction

I want to be optimistic on Dunn, but now with Koa Peat in the mix along with Miles Bridges and a more experienced Rasheer Fleming… it may be difficult for him to find consistent minutes. Royce O’Neale is gone and took a lot of his potential minutes, but Bridges figures to get more and slot into that same spot. Can those two co-exist?

Floor spacing is already a concern for this team, so that’s where things get tricky.

If he makes the rotation and gains confidence early, this could be a breakout season for Dunn. If he gets buried on the bench and doesn’t get consistent time and his confidence is shot, this could be a season where he fades into the background.

And that is why it is a make-or-break year for the Virginia product as he enters year three.

Stat Prediction: 72 Games, 20.1 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 47/33/55 shooting

Final Word.

Success for Ryan Dunn looks like continuing to terrorize opponents defensively while showing he is not a complete offensive liability.

We don’t need him to shoot like Luke Kennard, but he must be some sort of offensive threat. If he isn’t, it will be tough for Jordan Ott to keep him on the court consistently.

Just play confident, show that you put a ton of work into your shooting with real results, and the rest will take care of itself.

The offseason is about stories. There is no NBA basketball to analyze, so all the enjoyment of the sport comes from conversing about hypotheticals. Football is back, which means Cowboys-fueled disappointment has activated my basketball brain. It is time to turn away from an embarrassing Cowboys loss on Sunday Night Football and turn towards a compelling Mavericks season ahead. Here are five storylines to follow this season in Dallas:

Cooper Flagg’s sophomore leap

Arguably the most important offseason for any young superstar is the one between his rookie and second year. LeBron James was a prodigy, but he became LeBron James in year two. His scoring jumped from 20.7 points per game to 27.2 and didn’t dip below 24 until last year, his 23rd season. It was a similar story for our own Luka Doncic, who was exciting and fun in his first go-around, but became Luka Doncic with a similar scoring jump in year two and never looked back.

This is what Cooper Flagg will aim to do. There is a lot of leeway for rookies because of their inherent team situations and the learning curve the NBA demands, but year two is much less forgiving. For a lot of the game’s best, what we think of them today is what we thought of them in their second season, with fine tweaks around the edges. Flagg averaged 21 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists last year. He was the Rookie of the Year. There is pressure on him to build on that. It will be both exciting and nerve-wracking to watch as he attempts to become the next guy to establish himself as one of the game’s best.

Kyrie Irving, Maverick for life?

When Kyrie Irving was traded to Dallas in 2023, I do not think any of us expected him to both stick around this long and be as universally loved by the fanbase. He was a character shrouded in uncertainty and had a closet full of skeletons when the Mavericks got him. In fact, that’s partially why the Mavericks were able to get him for the price they did. Now, three-and-a-half years later, Irving is a beloved member of the team and one who has stated he loves being here. He made sense on the team he was traded to, but now that the circumstances have changed, his future here is unclear.

The NBA 2K answer would be to trade him for picks or young players to help with the rebuild. But NBA 2K does not factor in human emotion and real-life variables. Maybe Irving wants to compete for a championship somewhere else, but maybe he just wants to play out his career here. Maybe he gets the option to choose, but it’s possible the decision will be made for him under this new regime. As February approaches, I am sure we will have a clearer picture of where Irving will be in March. Wherever that is, Irving has made his mark on Mavericks history.

Masai Ujiri must reconcile this roster

Speaking of the new regime, the sunshine and rainbows that came with simply not having Nico Harrison in charge are starting to fade. We have a month or so until the Mavericks actually play basketball, and the team has four guards signed to standard contracts. One is Irving, coming off of an ACL injury; one is Max Christie, who barely counts as a guard; and the other two are rookie Sergio de Larrea and newly acquired Marcus Sasser. Telling Irving to carry the load as point guard after he just missed 19 months would be irresponsible, which would leave Sasser and de Larrea to handle it, who have a combined 17 games started in their careers.

I am sure the Mavericks will likely go with a “point guard by committee” approach instead, with Flagg taking some of the duties and letting some other big guys dribble it up as well. But having 11 forwards/centers to just four guards on the team to start the year is already putting their competitive viability behind the eight ball. All summer there has been an assurance of “don’t worry, the offseason isn’t over; there are surely more moves coming”. Well, no moves have come yet. Ujiri, you’re up. Time to show us you’re not just Nico Harrison with better PR.

The Mavericks may be competitive this season

I know I just got done grilling Dallas for their lack of a sensible roster, but it may not really matter in a lot of regular-season games. They have a ton of talent, and while it may not fit together super well, a lot of nights their talent will just beat the other team who isn’t trying that hard. If Flagg makes a leap and Irving looks good, the Mavericks may be a solid team. They aren’t winning a playoff series or anything like that, to be clear. But I do not think a play-in berth is out of the question, despite their low win total of just 33.5 on FanDuel. Don’t be surprised if Dallas challenges a .500 record.

Dereck Lively has to be healthy

It is time we talk candidly about Lively’s health. Of the 246 possible games he could have played in his career, he has dressed for just 98. That is less than 40 percent. He played just seven last season and 36 the year before. When he has played, he has shown signs of being really good. He was invaluable, as a rookie no less, to an NBA Finals team. But the injury history cannot be ignored. Lively is a seven-footer with multiple leg and foot problems, the most recent of which has sidelined him since November 21st of last year. And no one has ever said that your legs get healthier as you get older. Dallas picked up his team option for this season but has not extended him. If he cannot prove that he can stay on the court at just 22 years old, the Mavericks will have to get real about whether or not Lively should be in their plans going forward.

Per a Spurs press release:

“Spurs Sports & Entertainment (SS&E) today announced that Dr. Charles Harris Jr. has joined the organization as vice president of technology. In this role, Harris will lead SS&E’s enterprise technology strategy and operations across its teams, venues and business functions, including infrastructure, cybersecurity, venue technology, ticketing systems and fan-facing digital experiences. He will also provide strategic oversight for the technology components of SS&E’s new downtown arena project.”

The mission in hiring Harris is specifically to help modernize Spurs Sports & Entertainment’s technology ecosystem and support the systems that power games, concerts and other live events across the organization’s franchises and facilities. 

RC Buford stated,

“Charles has spent his career overseeing the technology and systems that help organizations operate, grow and adapt, and we’re excited to welcome him to SS&E. His expertise will help us continue creating seamless and engaging experiences for fans across our teams and venues.”

Harris joins the Spurs family after serving as vice president of technology for the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He holds a Ph.D. in Modeling and Simulation from the University of Central Florida and a Master of Science in Technology from Purdue University.

Harris commented,

“The best technology creates possibilities for people. That’s why I am excited to join SS&E and become part of the San Antonio community. I look forward to shaping what comes next together, using technology and innovation to create meaningful experiences for our fans and community.”

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The Wizards will be better in 2026-27 than they’ve been the previous three seasons. Low bar, I know. But at least they were trying to be bad unlike a previous season almost 20 years ago where the basketball operations group were tasked by ownership with competing for a championship and assembled a roster that was so bad the only sane move was to trade away all the veterans. They finished the season 19-63.

That’s the reason I’m a Bullets fan…

sigh

The official over/under betting line is 33.5 wins, which seems perfectly calibrated for wagering because who the heck really knows what this team will do. Under is plausible — a couple injuries to key guys (hi there Anthony Davis and Trae Young) a few youngsters who don’t progress as hoped, and voila we’re watching 28 minutes a night of Anthony Gill for the final 17 games of the season.

The over is also seriously plausible because the team is so young. My research into “typical” NBA career patterns (which is similar to research by others) shows that players make their biggest improvements at ages 20-24 — biggest jumps coming at ages 21, 22, and 23 (in order).

Here are Wizards players in that age group expected to be on the roster this season:

• AJ Dybantsa | 20
• Will Riley | 20
• Tre Johnson | 20
• Alex Sarr | 21
• Bub Carrington | 21
• Bilal Coulilbaly | 22
• Tristan Vukcevic | 23
• Kyshawn George | 23

That’s half the roster. Some are more likely to leap than others, and some won’t. One or two might jump big. One or two might regress hard. I put “typical” in quotes above because career trajectories are averages based on a large sample of players. When it comes to individuals, there’s variation — lots of it. So these average effects are best guesses based on historical patterns. Players can (and will) defy the averages for the good and bad.

For example, a couple seasons ago, Sarr posted a 77 PPA as a 19-year-old rookie. (For the uninitiated, PPA is my all-around production metric, which accounts for things like pace, role, and defense. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.) The forecast using my career trajectory calculator guesstimated his year two PPA at 85 — a modest improvement.

Sarr’s PPA last season: 132. A big jump a year or two ahead of “schedule.” That jump bumped his guesstimated peak from multi-time All-Star and borderline All-NBA type to someone who could be a genuine MVP candidate for a few seasons. Heady stuff.

If he makes the “regularly scheduled” age 20 to age 21 improvement, he’ll be an All-Star knocking on All-NBA status this season. If he jumps like that, going over 33.5 wins would be child’s play.

Coulibaly is an interesting case. He posted a near-replacement level 49 PPA as a 19-year-old rookie. The career trajectory calculator suggested he’d improve modestly the following season (54 PPA) — with gains continuing to an average season at age 22 (this season) and a career peak as a solid NBA starter.

Except, Coulibaly’s production climbed to a 75 PPA in year two, which boosted his “forecast” to a likely All-Star and maybe All-NBA type in his peak years. Last season, his PPA was 101 and The Calculator’s updated guesstimate keeps the All-Star and drops the All-NBA from his future.

George entered the NBA a couple years older — he was 21 as a rookie, posting a 53 PPA. With the biggest jump year already in the rearview mirror, The Calculator suggested he’d spend his career as a useful but a bit below average reserve. He improved more than is “typical” — leaping to an 87 PPA, which boosts the guesstimated forecast to that of a solid starter at his best. He could be average next season.

With Tre Johnson, I’ve written in the past about worries I have about deficiencies in his game. Guess what: that’s all normal for a teenager in the NBA. He posted a 61 PPA as a 19-year-old rookie, which suggests someone who could peak at a borderline All-Star level. If he’s “typical,” next season will see modest improvement (think a PPA in the high 60s or 70s), he’ll reach average the season after, and then…who knows.

A guesstimate like that suggests he won’t drive much winning next season. But a bigger leap (similar to those for Sarr and Coulibaly) is possible.

Johnson’s year two could be more like Carrington’s who posted a respectable 59 PPA at age 19 and then improved less than is “typical” — reaching a 61 PPA last season. A more “typical” progression from this point would still suggest Carrington as an above-average starter in the best years of his career.

This is the same basic trajectory guesstimated for Riley, who produced a 57 PPA as a 19-year-old rookie. If he follows the average improvement track, he’ll be in a mid-60s PPA range next season and progress to a solid starter in a few years.

The last three — Johnson, Carrington and Riley probably won’t drive winning next season, though they could be low-end contributors. Investing in them might pay off in a few years…right around the time Young is entering the age-related decline portion of his career.

So far, there’s one major youngster I haven’t talked about: AJ Dybantsa. It’s difficult to predict how good anyone so young will be as a rookie, though Dybantsa was a special prospect — a deserving number one overall pick.

My best guess is he won’t be terrible (like say Devin Booker, who put up a 45 PPA at age 19) and maybe won’t be great (like his teammate, Davis, who posted a 178 PPA at 19). But it’s reasonable to think he could be around average by the end of the year. And it’s not unreasonable to think he could be better than average — perhaps rating around 120 or higher, which is right around where LeBron James was as a rookie.

What the Wizards can reasonably expect next season would be All-Star level play from Davis, above-average starter production from Young, strong backup big man play from DeAndre Ayton, and then…wildcard stuff from the kids.

Sarr will probably be good and perhaps entering the All-Star conversation. Coulibaly could be an above-average starter. Mix in average-to-average plus production from Dybantsa and George, and some decent contributor minutes from some mix of Carrington, Johnson, Riley, and veteran Khris Middleton, and it’s not unrealistic to think the Wizards could be a better than .500 team, even in a competitive East.

Yes, it’s the last of the NBA doldrums before Houston Rockets season kicks off. They begin training camp on September 23 — six days away — because they are one of the teams playing international games in the preseason. The rest of the NBA starts September 29. Our yearly player preview series is mere days away. But for the next couple of days, it’s still the offseason, and this is the kind of news we have. ESPN just put out a future ranking of every NBA team, and the Rockets are ranked fourth overall in the NBA. The future rankings are designed to mean 30 years out. Here’s what ESPN said about our hometown boys:

Three-year outlook: Despite a fairly underwhelming 2025-26 campaign, Houston is still in strong position for this season and beyond. The Rockets have an enviable mix of high-upside youth and proven veterans — including Fred VanVleet returning from injury — and they’ve been one of the NBA’s best front offices in terms of financial management, routinely saving money with firm negotiations on extensions. Add in an unprotected pick swap with the Nets next summer, and Houston could be back in business quite soon. — Kram

Roster question looming: Amen Thompson just got his new deal, but what will happen with Kevin Durant if this Rockets team fails to advance past the first round again or struggles during the regular season? The soon-to-be 38-year-old has a $46 million player option next season, and Durant last season played his second-most games since 2013-14 and has not averaged fewer than 20 points since entering the NBA in 2007. — Marks

FPR nugget to know: In January 2023, when I was a coach on the Wizards bench, I remember being down 19 points in the first half to a young Rockets team. I felt confident that we would come back and beat them because they were not just young, they were a chaotic group that didn’t know how to play together. Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun still had a lot to figure out. We did indeed come back to win. That anecdote illustrates why you should forgive ESPN for ranking the Rockets 26th in the Future Power Rankings after that season, when they ended up compiling the eighth-best record in the NBA over the following three seasons. By the eye test or numbers test, those Rockets had a long way to go. — Oliver

Bold prediction for 2027-29: Durant won’t retire with the Rockets. The 16-time All-Star still has plenty of high-level basketball left in the tank, but it’s debatable whether Houston makes sense as a long-term home. Durant’s fit with Sengun is clunky, and the 2014 MVP has drifted from team to team after two or three seasons throughout the second half of his career. Could his last dance unfold as an Oklahoma City homecoming or a storybook return to the Seattle SuperSonics if the NBA expands to 32 teams? And will Durant be the NBA’s second-leading all-time scorer when he finally hangs it up? — Golliver

Previous ranking: 2

It’s definitely interesting that the Rockets have slipped a little for the future rankings, but I’m sure at least part of that can be explained by trading 23-year-old (at the time) Jalen Green for 38-year-old Kevin Durant. Barring the Rockets winning a title, Durant likely has one more year in H-town after this at the most. His player option also means Durant could easily go after this year unless the Rockets make a major leap this season. The fit is awkward, the chemistry is off, and even though $46 mill is a lot of money, the NBA’s ultimate loyalty-less gun for hire can make close to that pretty much anywhere, provided his game doesn’t fall off of a cliff this year. The other question is, if the Rockets aren’t where they hope they’d be by the new year, do they move KD at the deadline rather than lose him for nothing if he opts out in the offseason?

Anyway, enough about the future. The Rockets are about to start basketball. Here are your dates to watch:

Sept. 22: Media Day

Sept. 23: Training camp begins

Oct. 9: Rockets vs. Mavericks — Macao

Oct. 11: Rockets vs. Mavericks — Macao

Oct. 15: Rockets vs. Thunder — Houston

Oct. 21: Regular-season opener vs. Mavericks — Houston

We all remember May 12th, 2025 when Jayson Tatum fell to the floor in Game 4 of Round 2 against the New York Knicks. To that point, it had been one of the been one of the best games Tatum had played in his career with 42 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals and 2 blocks.

The 2024-25 version of Jayson Tatum is the best Tatum we have seen in his career. He had become the best scorer, passer and rebounder on the Celtics and was playing as well as any player in the league.

That is the Jayson Tatum the Celtics are betting on getting this year, the Jayson Tatum they need this year.

Tatum’s return from his Achilles tear was an overwhelming success. Sure, the end was disappointing with the blown 3-1 and him sitting out Game 7 but for Tatum to look as good as he did coming off of that major an injury under a year after it happened shows that Jayson Tatum is ready to reach the levels he once did.

Tatum’s play improved as the season went along and his numbers were vastly better in the playoffs than the regular season. His points, rebounds, assists and shooting percentages were all up in the first round series against the 76ers than they were in the 16 regular season games he played.

He got stronger as his return to the court went along and he really started to find himself before a knee issue held him out of Game 7.

I do think him missing Game 7 is notable, he was recovering from a major injury which likely lead to the new injury. That is something that should be addressed but I am not worried about it entering this year.

The subtraction of Jaylen Brown means that Tatum is the guy in Boston. There no more Jays and no more duo, this is the Jayson Tatum and friends show. His ‘friends’ are very good but that doesn’t matter if Tatum doesn’t preform to his highest capabilities.

His tools are very important to this team.

Tatum’s rebounding has reached a level where it isn’t underrated anymore. Everyone knows that Jayson Tatum is awesome on the glass. He was awesome on the glass in his return averaging 10.0 rebounds per game in the 16 regular season games he played and 10.7 in the six playoff games. The Celtics should be really good on the defensive glass this year and Tatum is going to be a big part of that.

His passing has gotten astronomically better since he entered the league and his playmaking is going to be a huge part of this team. The Celtics don’t have a ton of lead ball handlers on this team and Tatum is a big reason for that. He is going to have the ball in his hands more than any other player on the team and it will likely be by a wide margin. They’ll need his passing to be top notch. This team has a lot of good shooters, it will be up to Tatum to get them the ball a lot of the time.

Tatum’s pick and roll partnerships with Neemias Queta and Mitchell Robinson are also going to be really fun this year. His leap in passing has also lead to a leap in his pick and roll partnerships as he and Luke Kornet were one of the most efficient pick and roll pairings during the 2024-25 season. His ability to play out of that should be something the Celtics really take advantage of this year. I have really enjoyed watching him come off a screen leading to an opening between the screener and the big, which Tatum quickly spits and gets to the cup with ease.

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— #LetsGoCeltics (@gobosceltics) September 8, 2026

The Celtics defense is supposed to be among the best in the league this year because they have a lot of really good defensive players. At his peak, Jayson Tatum is as good defensively as any of them. Both on the ball and off of it. His ability to guard one through five was the leading reason as to why Boston’s defense was so good in during their 2024 championship season. His switching ability is a big part as to why I think Boston’s defense can be so dominant.

Last but not least is how important Tatum’s scoring ability is. The three point shot has been long scrutinized but he really did start to find it as last season ended, shooting 36.5% in the playoffs from beyond the arc. His pull-up has always been one of his biggest weapons and that shot was a big part of his arsenal last season.

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— #LetsGoCeltics (@gobosceltics) September 9, 2026

His 2 point scoring is where he has really thrived over the last few years as well as he has gotten stronger. Jayson Tatum’s ability to put the ball in the basket will never be questioned by me because he has always been special at that.

The Celtics have a chance to be really good this year. That starts and ends with Jayson Tatum. If he can find somewhere between 90 and 100% of his peak form, the Celtics are going to be a legit threat in the Eastern Conference this season and I have every confidence he will do just that.

Ramp to Camp: What can Mike Conley contribute to Celtics? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Mike Conley’s biggest contribution to the Boston Celtics during the 2026-27 season is unlikely to be found in the box score. But we wouldn’t sleep on what the soon-to-be 39-year-old guard can bring to the court this season as well.

For Day 8 of our Ramp to Camp series, we asked our panel to predict Conley’s biggest impact on this year’s team. Not surprisingly, as Conley prepares to enter his 20th NBA season and is regarded as one of the best teammates in the league, much of the focus will land on the leadership he can bring to a team that should benefit from the veteran additions made this offseason.

It’s hard not to be invigorated just listening to him talk about his desire to pass his knowledge onto the other players on the roster, especially fellow guards Derrick White and Payton Pritchard.

“I’m at that stage where I can pass that [experience] along,” Conley told NBC Sports Boston. “I can give that to Payton and Derrick, to Baylor [Scheierman], to Sam [Hauser], everybody that’s going to be expected to carry the load and the weight of this team. And it’s going to be fun.

“It’s going to be fun because, like for me and Payton, we’re similar-sized guards, smaller guards. So it’s easy for me to relate with him on different shot opportunities, what I’m thinking when I get into the paint, and how our games complement and how they’re different, and in what way can I kind of translate that to make it work for him.

“[White and Pritchard are] killers, man. They really are. Derrick White, I’ve played against him for a long time, both while he was here, he’s in San Antonio, and admired the way that he approaches every game. He’s one of the better defenders in the league, and the way that he plays, individually, but as a team guy, just getting back on defense, doing the right things … Payton, I think he’s just gotten better and better, with more given to him, more opportunities given to him. I think he’s just gonna continue to get better. And I’m excited to see that growth in that jump that he’s gonna make this year, because I think it can be special.”

The Celtics lost a lot of veteran leadership in the aftermath of Banner 18. From Jrue Holiday to Al Horford to Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet, some key locker room voices and guys with extensive basketball resumes went out the door. The additions of Conley, Paul George, and Mitchell Robinson can help restore a bit of that leadership.

The Celtics shouldn’t need to lean too heavily on Conley on the court. But we could see a very Blake Griffin-like role. While Griffin’s primary contribution was leadership at the tail end of his playing days, he still logged 41 games, including 16 starts. Mazulla will trust Conley given his NBA resume. Maybe that gives Boston some flexibility in how it deploys Pritchard at times, too.

Last season, during Minnesota’s playoff run, Conley made 12 appearances and posted a 6.4:1 turnover ratio (32 assists, 5 turnovers). He can still be a steadying presence who creates opportunities for others. He’s had a long history of playing with elite scorers — from Marc Gasol to Donovan Mitchell to Anthony Edwards — and we’re intrigued to see how Jayson Tatum can benefit from his presence.

It’s a bonus if Conley’s 3-point shot perks back up (dipping to 33.7 percent last year after being north of 40 percent during the rest of his Minnesota tenure). But it’s undeniable that his biggest contribution will be simply nurturing the players around them and trying to help Boston’s younger players step into bigger roles of their own.

Kevin Miller: Vice President, Content Creation & Strategy

Helping with overall team vibe and professionalism, and a couple sneaky key games where his minutes are noteworthy.

Justin Leger: Producer, Multi-Platform Content

Leadership.

The Celtics lost arguably their most prominent leader in Jaylen Brown, and while Jayson Tatum is a bona fide superstar, he hasn’t exactly been a vocal leader throughout his career. The respected veteran Conley can be that guy both on the court and inside the locker room, and his presence will be invaluable even if he doesn’t have much left in the tank in his age-39 season.

Josh Canu: Editor

Leadership.

Conley’s best days are behind him, clearly. His shooting numbers last year were not good. But he’s always been a leader and a positive impact in the locker room. With Jaylen Brown gone, there is a void for a veteran voice to help lead this team. Conley should be part of that.

Nick Goss: Producer, Multi-Platform Content

Veteran leadership.

The Celtics have a bunch of young guards and wings, and Conley’s leadership will have a great influence on them. He could also help Tatum improve as a leader following Jaylen Brown’s departure. Conley is a true professional and highly respected throughout the league.

Michael Hurley: Producer, Multi-Platform Content

It’s a basic answer here, but it’s cool to have a guy on the roster who was in the NBA when Hugo Gonzalez was a one-year-old. Rookie Chris Cenac Jr. was a newborn when Conley had 10 points and nine assists against the Utah Jazz. I would expect the on-court impact to be minimal, honestly, but for a team with a lot of youth, Conley should be a useful presence along the journey.

Adam Hart: Executive Producer, Content Strategy

My suspicion: positive voice in the ear of young players, like Hugo Gonzalez, as they shape their talent into NBA savvy. What kind of savvy? How to take care of your body, tactical knowledge, etc.

Max Lederman: Content Producer

Vibes. Everything I’ve ever heard about Mike Conley is he’s a great person. That fits nicely on this team and having a savvy vet like him can only help.

Jason Levine: Executive Producer, Content Integrations

Greg Oden stories.

The Phoenix Suns are acting fast to address the hit that Mark Williams’ shoulder injury last week did to their front court depth. The team is signing center Duop Reath, according to ESPN NBA Insider Shams Charania. Reath, 30 took a circuitous path to start his NBA career. Starting in community college and then transferring to LSU for his final years in the NCAA, he played overseas in China, Serbia, and Lebanon before making his NBA debut with the Portland Trail Blazers in the 2023-2024 season.

Reath spent the 2022 summer league with the Phoenix Suns but will now have a chance to prove it on the regular season roster. With Williams expected to be out for a majority of the season, Reath is expected to be behind 2025 lottery pick Khaman Maluach and third-year big man Oso Ighodaro in the center rotation.

Averaging 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 36% shooting from three as a rookie, Reath’s productivity and playing time have declined since his first season, with Portland drafting Donovan Clingan and Yang Hansen in the 2024 and 2025 drafts to play ahead of him. His playing time went down in the following two seasons, and he missed the final half of the 2025-2026 campaign after suffering a stress fracture in his right foot in the middle of January.

A willing three-point shooter, Reath has a chance to make the roster considering the team’s front court injuries and his willingness and ability to take and make threes, something Ighodaro and Maluach have seldom shown early in their careers. Expect his minutes to come along the team’s reserves if the team’s front court players are having foul issues or are hurt.

The Suns’ preseason is less than three weeks away, and their regular season begins on October 21st.

The news that Mark Williams tore his labrum during a recent scrimmage, with the possibility that he could be out until at least the All-Star break, is not how the Suns wanted to begin the season.

Every team needs health to remain competitive, and Phoenix already enters the year with limited flexibility. The Suns are carrying $23.2 million in dead cap money and currently sit $1.7 million below the second apron, where they are hard-capped. That makes replacing production even more difficult. It also accelerates the timeline for players like Khaman Maluach and forces the organization to alter the developmental path it likely envisioned for him entering the season. Instead of bringing him along gradually, Phoenix may now need meaningful production from him much sooner than expected.

We’ve already talked about what Williams’ injury means for both Khaman Maluach and third-year big Oso Ighodaro. We’ve also explored why Maluach should ultimately get the first crack at the starting role. But there’s another exercise worth exploring. Should the Suns look to the free agent market to fortify their center depth while Williams is out?

As things currently stand, the center rotation consists of Maluach and Ighodaro. Behind them, there isn’t much. Rasheer Fleming could theoretically play some small ball five if needed. Phoenix also has two-way big CJ Huntley, who can be elevated and remain available for up to 50 regular season games. If Phoenix chooses to lean on Huntley as the primary depth option behind Maluach and Oso, that 50-game threshold would carry them to roughly the All-Star break, which could line up rather conveniently with the current timeline surrounding Williams’ return. So yes, that is a viable path.

When you look at the free agent market for centers, there really isn’t a whole hell of a lot out there. You’ll see a few former Suns sitting around. Bismack Biyombo. Mason Plumlee. Drew Eubanks. And no thanks. I’m not really interested in running back old ideas simply because they’re familiar. Dwight Powell is out there too, but he’s 35. Xavier Tillman is probably the one name that gives me a little pause. He’s a quality screener, and BBall Index gave him an A- grade in rim protection. But he’s also only 6’8”, and at that point I start wondering whether you’re better off giving Rasheer Fleming some minutes at small ball five and seeing what you have there.

The free agent market at center probably brings more risk than reward, especially when you consider how tight the Suns already are financially. I don’t think this is the time to spend money simply to say you added another center.

If the Suns do decide to make a move for another center, they would most likely have to move off Jamaree Bouyea’s contract to create the room. Bouyea is owed $2.6 million this season, but that money doesn’t become guaranteed until January 10, 2027. If Phoenix waives him before then, it would create roughly $4.3 million in flexibility to go shopping for another big.

And I think that’s the important starting point in this conversation. The Suns do not need to make that decision right now. They can push it into January. By then, we’ll have seen plenty of Maluach and Ighodaro as the primary centers. We’ll have seen Rasheer Fleming get some small-ball five minutes if needed. And we’ll probably get a look at CJ Huntley in spot situations along the way, especially when foul trouble becomes an issue.

That part interests me. That’s why you have two-way players, right? That’s why you have the G League. That’s why you have a development system in the first place. To identify talent, develop it, and then allow those players to prove whether that development actually took hold.

So while some people may be beating the drum for the Suns to dig through the scrap heap that is the current free-agent center market, I don’t think they need to do that right now. The optionality is there to wait. Let the season tell you what you actually need. See what Maluach looks like. See what Oso looks like. See whether Huntley can give you anything. See how Williams’ rehabilitation progresses. Heck, if you want to try Koa Peat at the five, go for it. And then, if January rolls around and you still need help, you make the move. There’s no reason to force it today.

Williams’ injury changes the equation, but it doesn’t require Phoenix to solve it immediately. The Suns built a developmental pipeline for moments exactly like this, and now it’s time to see whether that investment pays off. Give Maluach the opportunity. Let Oso handle his role. See what Huntley can provide. January will arrive soon enough, and by then Phoenix will know whether it needs another center or whether the answer was already sitting on the roster.