Category: Basketball

I saw this post recently.

“NBA’s rule change last season to not count last second heaves as missed FGs for players had a big effect on their behavior.

A new research paper by 2 Texas Tech professors, James W. Kemper & Noah Liptack, found players took that shot 94% of the time last season after taking it 58% in the decade prior.

The paper said the most reluctance to shoot, before the rule change, was ‘concentrated among efficient shooters and players in contract years.’”

While it should come as no surprise that not penalizing players for last second shots led to an increase of attempts, the amount of change (58% to 94%) is quite drastic. That said, the 36% rise was over a decade, when three-point attempts were less common.

As a math teacher, I found the methodology and formulas interesting as well.

Play-by-play. We use ESPN play-by-play data (ESPN, 2026) for the NBA and WNBA
covering the 2015–16 through 2025–26 seasons, obtained via the sportsdataverse hoopR
(NBA) and wehoop (WNBA) packages (Gilani, 2021; Gilani & Hutchinson, 2021).1 For
every possession, these records report the players involved, the event type, the game clock,
the period, the running score, and shot coordinates. Together, they let us reconstruct what
each offensive player chose to do in the final seconds of a quarter and recover the model’s
statistical state variables—specifically, the time remaining t, the shot distance d, and the
score margin m.

Their conclusion offers a comprehensive overview of not just basketball, but risk-taking as a whole:

“By removing the individual statistical penalty for end-of-quarter shots, we observed an immediate, near-universal alignment of player behavior with collective team success. These findings transcend basketball, offering a broader cautionary tale for organizational economics: poorly calibrated performance evaluations inevitably breed strategic subversion. When designed correctly, eliminating distorted metric penalties serves as a highly effective lever to align individual incentives with overarching organizational goals.”

You can review the report in its entirety HERE.

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It’s August, which means it’s time for the annual statistical doppelgänger series.

Refresher: over the next few weeks, I’ll be running Wizards players through an algorithm built atop a database of every player season from 1977-78 to present. The algorithm compares players across 14 statistical categories and determines which player seasons from NBA history are most similar. The system is dubbed: The Statistical Doppelgänger Machine.

The Machine was borne from the desire to do something other than the eyeball comps, which often relied on superficial similarities like skin color, height, and perceived style. Mileage may vary, but I personally got tired of hearing about the next Magic, next Larry, or next Jordan.

Results from The Machine have been interesting through the years, at least to me. While position isn’t one of the factors, it weirdly tends to produce comps from the same general grouping. The outputs are sometimes surprising — different styles and perceived player types producing similar results.

This year’s Wizards produced one result so on the nose it kinda pisses me off, which you’ll see below. One comp (that I’ll be writing about in a few days) was so startling that I went back and double-checked to make sure I’d run the process correctly.

Enough preamble. Today, let’s talk the non-rookie player most likely to become a bona fide NBA star: Alex Sarr.

The second overall pick in 2024 (he’d go No. 1 in a re-draft, in my opinion), Sarr improved markedly in his second season. At least when he could stay on the floor. Last season, he managed just 48 games and 1,300 minutes. As a rookie, he made it 67 games and 1,800 minutes. For those who don’t feel like doing the math, that means he missed about 30% of the team’s games his first two seasons.

My guess is that he would have played more if the Wizards had been trying to win, but it’s impossible to know for sure. It’s similarly difficult to know how seriously to take aspects of his performance. When I analyzed his performance ekg in May, I noted the decline in his production as the season wore on. Was that decline indicative of his true abilities or a symptom of a team committed to losing?

That’s impossible to know and is one of the perils of prolonged tanking.

To the doppelgängers:

1. Kristaps Porzingis | 2015-16 | New York Knicks | Age: 20 — This comp is perfectly annoyingly infuriating, mainly because it just might fit too well considering Sarr’s history of missed games and the fact that he’s dealing with a fractured right foot this summer. Porzingis was an enormously talented big man (7-3) whose career has been pocked with an array of leg and foot injuries. This comp season was Porzingis’ rookie year. He played 72 games, which was his career high.
2. Jared Sullinger | 2014-15 | Boston Celtics | Age: 22 — This comp is less worrisome, primarily because it’s more easily dismissed. This was first of consecutive good seasons from Sullinger. His career cratered when his weight ballooned. That seems unlikely to be an issue with Sarr.
3. Bobby Portis | 2017-18 | Chicago Bulls | Age: 22 — The production per possession was eerily similar between the two, though Sarr’s overall performance grades out better in my PPA metric. One major difference: Portis was one of the worst defenders I’ve ever seen who actually tried, and Sarr was a very good defender when he was trying.
4. Marvin Bagley III | 2020-21 and 2021-22 | Sacramento Kings and Detroit Pistons | Ages: 21 and 22 — Like Sarr, a second overall pick in his draft. Unlike Sarr, he went ahead of generational stars like Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It’s arguable that Stephon Castle could go No. 1 in a redraft, but Sarr would still land second. I want to dismiss this comp, though I’m not sure we should. Some key differences: defense (Bagley wasn’t a rim protector and was weak defending in space), and playmaking (Sarr averaged more than twice as many assists on a per possession basis). You might want to say “shooting,” but Bagley shot 34.3% from deep in the first of these two comp years on 4.7 attempts per 100 team possessions and then his shot got worse. And Bagley’s health has been a major issue throughout his career.
5. Chet Holmgren | 2023-24 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Age: 21 — Hey great, another injury-prone big man. This was Holmgren’s rookie year because he missed what should have been his first season with a broken foot. He played all 82 games, missed 50 games the following season with a hip fracture, and appeared in 69 regular season games last season. He’s been a terrific defender and versatile offensive threat, who’s been good enough to merit a maximum contract extension that starts this season.

If you’re not happy with these comps, well…the names don’t get a whole lot better, in part because the next few are different seasons from the same names — Sullinger, Bagley, Holmgren each have other seasons in the top 10 “similar” seasons. One fairly promising name lanes ninth: Jaren Jackson Jr.

I qualified “promising” because while Jackson has sublime defensive abilities (he was Defensive Player of the Year in 2023), I also think he’s gotten overrated overall. His high usage and below average offensive efficiency puts a drag on the team’s offense, and his rampant fouling undercuts his defensive value. Sarr doesn’t foul nearly so much.

One way I’ve looked at doppelgänger results is to see how long it takes to get to a Hall of Famer. In Sarr’s case, it’s a while — a Chris Webber season from his time with the Bullets shows up in the 190s. But seasons from Thomas Bryant and Andray Blatche show up sooner.

If you’re not worried enough by the presence of Porzingis and Bagley in the top five, the extended list is chock full of talented players who had disappointing careers due to injuries, attitude, or limitations. At the risk of sending all you readers off to stare into the abyss, the list includes names like Jabari Parker, Jahlil Okafor, and Michael Beasley — in addition to Bryant and Blatche. sigh

Okay, that’s enough on Sarr and his comps. The next player through the machine has some bizarre and wildly encouraging comps.

Nearly a week to put together a large enough amount of links and notes; that’s how it goes…

• Jalen Brunson continues to embrace his status as King of New York, appearing at the famed Rucker Park during Nike’s NYvsNY streetball tournament in early August, Thanos-cast and all included.
• OG Anunoby has had enough.
• Do you know who could become available as the Knicks keep looking for a third-string center? Old pal Taj, whose $3.82 million non-guaranteed contract makes him a potential waiver candidate in Memphis, says HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto. Too bad Thibs is no longer around…
• According to SNY’s Ian Begley and the New York Post’s Stefan Bondy, Gersson Rosas left the Knicks on good terms just to pursue opportunities that offer greater executive responsibility elsewhere.
• Mitchell Robinson and Josh Hart, still friends.
• Per the NYP, Knicks assistant Carson Shanks will not return to New York after three seasons with the organization.
• Tyler Nickel’s Knicks future briefly became a talking point after reports suggested he could explore returning to college. Hours later, we learned the kid is expected to go pro and join the organization. Hooray!
• Not so much luck for the drafted-and-stashed German Knickerbocker Jack Kayil. Auf Wiedersehen!
• Stephon Marbury opened up about the personal tragedies that pushed him to leave the NBA for China. Chunk of the full interview:

“I was dealing with a lot. I was super depressed. My dad was rushed to the hospital, and my dad passed away while I was on the court. And then my dad died, then my coach died like a week later, my aunt died, and then my mom checked in the hospital on her deathbed. So it was like a lot. And then my situation with the Knicks, it was going bad. And my brand, Starbury, I was being attacked… I was just like super depressed. I was in a state of wanting to kil- myself, feeling like I wanted to kil- myself, not wanting to be here because of dealing with the stress and pressure of losing people that I love.”

• Josh Hart has been named a Scouting America Ambassador. Hart earned Eagle Scout honors in high school and said scouting taught him discipline and accountability.
• SI’s Steven Simineri painted a dark picture for Knicks benchman Kevin McCullar Jr.
• Is Stephen Curry thinking about requesting a trade out of Golden State? Doesn’t sound like it. “I think honestly, you figure it out in real time,” he said.
• Lonnie Walker IV is returning to the NBA after spending last season with Maccabi Tel Aviv. He’s now a Denver Nugget. Is this the opposite of what happens in football when players play a season or two in Saudi Arabia, then try to return once their bags are filled?
• A proposed February trade would have sent Domantas Sabonis to Toronto in exchange for Knickerbocker legend and current Raptor RJ Barrett. It failed because the Raptors couldn’t move Jakob Poeltl’s contract. Welp.

• Shaquille O’Neal believes Kobe Bryant belongs alongside Michael Jordan and LeBron James in the GOAT debate.
• Brandon Clarke’s death was officially ruled an accidental overdose involving heroin and cocaine.
• Russell Westbrook isn’t thinking about his future too much.
• Kevin Love has been in contact with the 76ers since LeBron James chose Philadelphia, as he wants to join Philly for one final run alongside his old mate. ESPN, however, poured cold water on Love’s forehead by noting there is no guarantee the veteran forward will receive a roster spot.
• Former NBA guard Royce White announced he also intends to declare for the 2027 WNBA Draft, hours after Enes Kanter Freedom made a similar announcement. It took WNBA commish Cathy Engelbert a day to respond and announce the league will meet next week to discuss and clarify what qualifies a player as a woman for the WNBA.
• Ben Simmons is… back?

The Utah Jazz are going to have one of the most interesting seasons of any team this season. What makes it so interesting, besides the shift toward playoff contention, is how many different storylines there are to watch. Multiple players will be competing for different awards and accolades. Whether it’s Darryn Peterson, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr., or Ace Bailey, each has unique pathways to stardom.

But what accomplishment is most possible for each of these players? In our latest Jazz Reacts survey, Jazz fans let us know.

According to 44% of Jazz fans, Darryn Peterson winning Rookie of the Year is the most likely thing that will happen this season.

It certainly seems very likely. Peterson has the most talent we’ve ever seen in a Jazz rookie. He’ll also be on a winning team and should be given a starting role to play alongside Keyonte George in the backcourt. If he plays well, gets consistent minutes, and the Jazz win a lot of games, it’s hard to see him not winning.

Keyonte George being an All-Star coming in second also makes sense. He’ll have consistent minutes and will play alongside elite talent that will clear the path for him to take another leap.

What’s crazy is that all of these things have a real possibility of happening. Obviously, that’s not likely, but the fact that all of these things aren’t ridiculous really shows how fun this season is going to be.

At FanDuel, Peterson’s odds have fallen to third now that Summer League is over. We’ll see if that changes as the year goes on. One thing is for sure, that Rookie of the Year race is going to be an epic one.

For reasons unclear, particularly with LeBron James no longer on the team, Dillon Brooks is still throwing jabs at the Lakers.

Brooks’ “feud” with LeBron was remarkably one-sided, featuring multiple ejections and multiple game-sealing baskets scored against him. He tried to troll LeBron during the playoffs by showing up for Game 4 against the Thunder…an opportunity available to him only because he had already been eliminated from the playoffs.

But logic would say that LeBron leaving for Philly would spell the end of his feud with the purple and gold. Alas, logic has never been on the side of Brooks, though.

In a recent video with BleacherReport, Brooks was asked about the Lakers’ offseason and implied they’d be in trouble if Luka Dončić wasn’t averaging 40 points per game.

No one has ever accused Brooks of being smart, a consequence of being ejected twice in games against the Lakers in recent seasons.

It’s also not like the team doesn’t have a new superstar who can torture him. Luka already had a long history of owning the Suns before Brooks. Getting to unleash on him next season would be glorious.

While this came before he signed his recent extension, that surely would only add to his arrogance. He certainly has never been short on confidence, either. Some might argue that might have been his undoing in Memphis.

In case you were worried, though, the Lakers-Suns rivalry will remain alive. Or at least remain relevant as Luka looks to carry on LeBron’s legacy of owning Brooks.

You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.

Most of the time, you don’t know when a singular moment can define a franchise. I don’t think any of us expected that when the Knicks signed Jalen Brunson or hired Leon Rose, but the impact of making those decisions has put the franchise on a course towards ending their 53-year championship drought and bringing a Larry O’Brien Trophy back to New York.

Sometimes you know. Trading Kristaps Porzingis. Trading for Carmelo Anthony. Striking out in the 2019 offseason. Injuries can kinda qualify here.

The grey area is where we sit here. When Julius Randle went down with a shoulder injury on January 27, 2024, it was hard to grasp the feeling. The Knicks were coming off one of the best months in franchise history following the trade for OG Anunoby in late December and were well on their way to a sixth consecutive win that would improve the team’s record to 29-17, fourth in the Eastern Conference and three games back of second.

Randle went down and grabbed his shoulder after a hard blocking foul by Jaime Jaquez Jr., who was attempting to draw a charge. The coming hours and days revealed a dislocated shoulder that had an unclear timeline. Initially, it was believed that it was a 1-2 month injury and that he would be able to return for the postseason, but after two months of attempting to return, a re-dislocation during the rehab process prompted season-ending surgery in April.

While the Knicks found a way to get to the No. 2 seed and win seven playoff games without him, they missed his presence in a depleted lineup. That injury would not just be season-ending, but tenure-ending, as Randle would never wear the orange and blue again. About eight months to the day after that game, he was traded to Minnesota for Karl-Anthony Towns.

Welcome back to Knicks Domino Effects, where we look back at individual moments that, one way or another, led to a monumental franchise pivot that resulted in a championship. Today, we’re going to be asking the question.

What if Julius Randle never hurt his shoulder?

Let’s go back to that day in late January against the Miami Heat. The Knicks led by 17 with 4:30 to go in the fourth, which is still well within the realm of possibility for a comeback. Tom Thibodeau was never going to pull the starters here, nor should he have. So let’s say that Randle, instead of going hard to the cup here, kicks it out to a wide open Brunson after Terry Rozier collapsed to help Jaquez underneath.

Brunson buries the triple, and the starters exit the game a minute later with a 20-point cushion. Randle survives the game and likely doesn’t find a way to injure that shoulder. This isn’t like a torn Achilles situation where wear and tear likely contributed, it’s more of a freak accident.

In the immediate short term, there’s still bad news. OG Anunoby’s elbow randomly flared up after this game as well, so that saga still dominates the final two months of the regular season, but instead of Brunson basically going at it alone with only Donte DiVincenzo as his second-in-command, he’ll still have his fellow All-Star (who will actually get to play with Brunson in the game) by his side.

In real life, the Knicks won the ensuing three games following the pair of injuries before embarking on an ugly 3-8 stretch to end February. That wouldn’t dissuade the Knicks from their charge for the No. 2 seed, as they finished 15-7 to top the pack and finish with 50 wins. How does that change with Randle?

Well, the Knicks relied heavily on Brunson during the stretch run as Randle and partially Anunoby rehabbed injuries. They went 0-3 in games Brunson missed with minor injuries. After Randle went down, JB averaged 31.5 points a night across the final 33 games, a number that would certainly go down with his fellow All-Star healthy.

That means we never see some of his best heroics down the stretch. Seven of the 11 40-point games he had that season came in the stretch run. That 61-point game against San Antonio probably wouldn’t have happened. While the captain has shown this propensity to score in bunches throughout his Knicks career, it was this stretch that truly made him evolve into the force he is today. With Randle ensuring that he doesn’t have to hero-ball for this stretch, do we get the guy we currently have?

Anunoby’s tricky elbow limits the ceiling of the 2023-24 Knicks, but they still get the No. 2 seed with 53 wins. They go into the postseason with the dangerous starting five that ran through the NBA in January and use that for a five-game series victory over the Sixers. It still costs them Mitchell Robinson due to Embiid antics and Bojan Bogdanovic, as the injury bug is probably inevitable, but it saves them mileage.

That saved mileage comes in handy against Indiana in the second round. The first two games go the same way, with the Knicks going up 2-0, but one key thing doesn’t happen.

We all know what changed that series for the worse late in Game 2. In this timeline, it doesn’t happen.

Anunoby averaged a staggering 41.6 minutes a game in the first seven games of the postseason due to the injuries and his importance, which likely caused the soft-tissue injury that essentially ended his season. By wrapping up the Philly game a night early due to Randle’s presence, there’s less mileage. His presence also likely reduces his minutes total as a result.

With Anunoby healthy, the Knicks survive a crazy Game 3 in Indianapolis that originally went much different. After losing Game 4, they come home and take the series in five at MSG to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in 24 years.

You might be asking, “Why does a man who has been known for being a playoff dropper change this series so dramatically?” Presence and gravity are half the battle. It’s less attention focused on Brunson as the only offensive threat. It’s less workload on Anunoby because of how thin the roster got, forcing the team to use Precious Achiuwa way more than they wanted. Even if Randle likely underperforms again, it’s enough to push the Knicks to the long-awaited battle with the Celtics.

That series isn’t the easiest to predict. Some are insistent that the January 2024 Knicks could’ve defeated the seemingly unstoppable C’s who steamrolled injured competition the entire postseason, but I find it unlikely for a few reasons. That team was not as well equipped to defend the Jays as the following year’s incarnation of the Knicks, plus the injuries don’t exactly go away.

Robinson and Bogdanovic, at this point, are still out. The overuse of Anunoby and Josh Hart may still lead to their hamstring and abdominal ailments. Even if Randle, Brunson, and Donte DiVincenzo remained upright, it’s unlikely that they have enough to topple the eventual champions, losing in six games but giving themselves renewed optimism going forward.

The start of the offseason still plays out the exact same. The Knicks fiscally cannot afford to keep Isaiah Hartenstein, losing him through no fault of their own. They still massively extend Anunoby and trade a haul for Mikal Bridges, knowing full well that to beat the Celtics, they need a second premier wing defender. The real question lies with what they do after.

We all know that they pulled the trigger on longtime target Karl-Anthony Towns in September, and the fact that Leon Rose and company badly wanted him the entire time means it’s entirely possible it still happens even without Randle’s injury.

Let’s have some fun here. Let’s say that the Knicks elect to wing it with the center depth, banking on an eventual return by Robinson down the road, and go into the 2024-25 season with a center rotation of Jericho Sims, Precious Achiuwa, and Ariel Hukporti. Maybe you could replace Achiuwa with known target Goga Bitadze if they ponied up more than they were willing to, but the main narrative here was no Towns on the team. Randle receives the same three-year, $100 million extension that he got post-trade and is banked in for the long haul.

A lineup of Brunson-Bridges-Anunoby-Randle-Achiuwa is certainly an interesting one, and with Tom Thibodeau’s known reluctance to play small ball, Randle at the 5 is just not happening. That rough center depth hurts the Knicks greatly over the coming weeks and months, forcing them to be a little less patient with Robinson’s recovery. Instead of debuting on February 28, he’s back on January 15, which helps them in the short term, but leads to a reduced postseason presence due to fatigue.

It’s hard to project the inner workings of a regular season with injuries and workload from an entirely different roster, so the Knicks still win 50 games and end up playing the Detroit Pistons in the first round. Should be simple, right?

Wrong. Remember back to that series and who the keys were for the Knicks. Cam Payne won them Game 1, and though he’ll probably still get signed, does he play with the added backcourt depth on the roster with DiVincenzo? What about KAT, who’s late-game heroics won Game 4? Do the Knicks win either of those?

There’s a very realistic chance that this iteration of the Knicks somehow loses to the feisty Pistons, but I’ll default to a gritty, seven-game series that leaves them ripe for the picking by the defending champions in Round 2. By this point, Robinson has been worked extensively due to the lack of Towns and is severely diminished, if not completely out due to injury.

We don’t remember it as much as the heroics of Bridges, but Robinson was +13 and +19 in the two major comebacks. If he can’t be as impactful as he was with fresher legs, and Randle struggles in the postseason, the Knicks don’t win either of those games. I think they’d still put up a fight, but these small marginal things are enough to swing a series against a supremely talented Celtics team, with the Knicks bowing out in six games for the second consecutive year.

The frustration of losing to a rival in consecutive seasons might’ve even trumped the frustration in real life of beating the team you specifically designed yourself to beat before losing to a different team like Indiana. In this scenario, not only is Tom Thibodeau fired, but the roster is likely remade after it’s made clear that the grand experiment to specifically take out Boston failed.

Mike Brown is still likely to be hired as head coach due to the timing of the firing in May 2025, but it might not have been as simple as running back the same framework for Towns as it was the prior offseason. As we know, the biggest motivation behind trading Towns wasn’t his personal ability, but the massive second apron concerns.

In this timeline, instead of Jimmy Butler going to the Warriors from Miami in a midseason blockbuster, it was Towns going to team up with Chef Curry in the Bay Area for 2024-25. They were the only other known team to moderately pursue the All-NBA big man, so their aggressive front office goes all-in to finally give Curry the pick-and-pop partner he’s dreamed of.

So the options for the Knicks to remake their roster going into 2025-26 were limited. That was until the Bucks called them regarding the desire of Giannis Antetokounmpo to play in the bright lights of New York. In real life, the Knicks weren’t very motivated to get something done because of their belief in a new core, but after multiple years of a Brunson/Randle pairing, Rose and company have seen enough.

Randle, Bridges, and DiVincenzo head to the Bucks for Giannis and salary filler. The Knicks go all-in on a Big 3 of Antetokounmpo, Brunson, and Anunoby in a trade nobody saw coming. The desperation comes as Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum still go down with injury, leaving the Eastern Conference wide open.

That team is as good as advertised. Brunson remains the consistent 25-PPG scorer he’s been this whole time alongside a player who takes Randle’s slashing ability and puts it on steroids. Brown’s ideal offense, pace and space, has to take a back seat as a result, but they still surround the pair with as many pure shooters as possible, even after losing Donte. The elite training staff that has kept the Knicks healthy has a good chance of doing the same for Giannis and his balky calf, but they know the playoffs are more important than the regular season.

As disappointing as it sounded when the team-up was initially announced, the Knicks were fine with being the No. 4 seed and winning 51 games. They were whole entering the postseason, allowing them to sweep the Toronto Raptors in the first round. An obstacle presented itself in a tough Pistons team in the second round, but surely they’d have enough to keep it going, right?

Here’s the problem. Some of the players who turned into New York legends during our legendary championship run never put on the orange and blue. The presence of DiVincenzo in 2024-25 led to Landry Shamet never being signed. Guerschon Yabusele is never signed because the team trades for Giannis and suddenly has frontcourt depth, leading to the mid-level exception being used on Gary Trent Jr. instead, which means no Jose Alvarado at the trade deadline. Maybe Jordan Clarkson is replaced by someone like Taurean Prince as a result.

None of these guys are totally useless, but in the quest to find more shooting, they lose part of their identity. Their offense plays into the defensive strengths of Detroit, and it’s a gritty series that sees many games end 99-92 as a result. The lack of ball pressure by trading Mikal leads to added responsibility on Deuce McBride, who is diminished as he was in real life due to core surgery.

The Knicks don’t win that series. After making the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 with the January Knicks, they fail to make it back in each of the next two seasons. Wishcasting from that team continues. The voices grow louder about Leon Rose’s job, Brunson’s viability as a top option, and even Mike Brown as coach.

I’m not quite sure what happens from here. Most likely, the Knicks would run back the same core and hope for better results. Maybe they get aggressive in adding another piece and make Hart and McBride expendable. Robinson is likely still around just because they can’t afford to let them go. Does LeBron come to town? Are they a second apron team?

Good thing these qualify as bad dreams.

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The Nets can extend Michael Porter Jr.’s expiring $40.8 million contract right up to next July’s free agency. There’s no real deadline, but Tuesday may offer a signal as to the Nets thinking on the 28-year-old who put up 24/7/3 last season, a career high, as the Brooklyn rejected trade offers at the February deadline.

As Brian Lewis explained Saturday:

The upcoming season’s deadline is expected to be Feb. 11.

Due to the quirks of the CBA, that does make this Tuesday worth watching.

If Porter gets an extension — with a raise of 5 percent or more than two additional seasons — then he can’t be traded for six months.

And if the Nets renegotiate his contract, he also can’t be moved for six months.

That means if Marks plans to do either of those things with Porter, he’d either have to do them by Tuesday, otherwise the forward couldn’t be traded until next summer.

If the Nets and MPJ can’t come to an agreement, there’s speculation both sides might want a separation, but a trade now, with most rosters set, might not be the time. Assuming nothing changes before the deadline, and he keeps playing at tha same pace, he could be a valuable piece for a contender. But Sean Marks & co. give every indication they want to keep him, although it’s uncertain what’s progressed..

“I’m sure we’ll have those discussions,” Marks said at the end of the Vegas Summer League. “We value him a lot. He had a terrific year last year, arguably his best year as a pro. I give him a lot of credit for that.

“I also give Jordi [Fernandez] and the coaching staff a heck of a lot of credit for putting him in places where he can have that type of success. It’s been great to see what Mike’s done for us. So I look forward to having those discussions, and just seeing what Mike can do the rest of the summer and the rest of the season…

“As I said before, I love Mike, the guy, the person, the player, and I hope he is part of this team. But we’re just gonna have to have those discussions between the two of us and our representatives and go from there.”

Porter Jr.’s agent has expressed similar sentiments, and Porter Jr. himself has lavished the organization with praise. But money is money and flexibility is flexibility. There’s also a league-wide trend to keep contracts short unless a team is trying to keep a superstar on the roster.

MPJ has been eligible for a four-year, $234 million deal since June 19. That’s an annual average value of $58.5 million. That isn’t happening, but it does seem that if Brooklyn and he can agree to a deal, it may turn out to be creative. Mark Bartelstein, Porter Jr.‘s agent, also has a reputation for making things work using the CBA’s nooks and crannies.

The most rumored — and that’s all it is, rumored — solution is for the Nets to take their remaining $4.9 million in cap space and re-jigger MPJ’s remaining deal so he gets an immediate $4.9 million raise this year to $45.7 million then tag on a multi-year extension starting at perhaps $35 million in 2027-28, the length of which being the key issue. (Brooklyn would still have a $9.4 million room MLE and be a good $10 million under the luxury tax threshold.)

Porter spoke this week on just how long he intends to play in the league. He’s still bothered by a bad back suffered in college. He said once he settles down, it will be about family.

“When we start having kids, I don’t want other people really raising my kids,” Porter said on the “Girls, Disrupted” podcast. “But the thing is, I don’t want to play basketball for 10 more years. I want to be done in the next five, six years. So then, during that time, I’m fine being home a lot. I’m a chill dude. I want to raise my kids.”

Sounded like a hint he’s planning long-term right now.

Losing MPJ would, barring some surprise, put the Nets in an offensive straitjacket. Finding a missing 24 or 25 points a game would not be easy. The most likely return on a deal would be more draft assets of which the Nets have plenty. Moreover, in his time in Brooklyn, Porter Jr. has become a mentor and leader for the team’s younger players, an added and unexpected bonus for Brooklyn.

it does seem the Nets want to keep him. In June, they traded Nic Claxton to add anther high-scoring forward, Julius Randle, in hopes of igniting Jordi Fernandez’s offense. Both are proven NBA vets: Porter started on an NBA championship team and Randle is a three-time All-Star and two-way All-NBA selection with a love of the city … and things to prove after the Knicks unceremoniously dumped him for Karl-Anthony Towns at the beginning training camp in 2024..

So, we shall see starting Tuesday where things are headed.

• Every Michael Porter Jr. scenario is still on the Nets’ table with need to find middle ground ($) – Brian Lewis – New York Post

Preseason hoops begin in less than two months. And the Washington Wizards remain one standard contract short of the NBA limit.

The Wizards currently roster 14 players on standard deals. They have roughly $11.5 million in luxury tax space and own the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which is valued at roughly $15 million.

Plenty of time remains between now and when rosters become official on opening night in late October. But as it stands, here are four players Washington could sign to its final roster spot.

The savvy veteran: DeMar DeRozan

The Wizards have held talks with free agent forward DeMar DeRozan in recent weeks, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported. Washington is one of four teams — alongside the Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat — that have expressed interest in the 37-year-old.

The six-time NBA All-Star averaged 18.4 points across 77 games with the Sacramento Kings last season. His 26,711 career points rank 16th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list.

If Washington signs DeRozan, its already crowded rotation would welcome another proven veteran alongside Khris Middleton on the wing. Depth is a good problem to have, but it’s unclear whether DeRozan would immediately be part of the Wizards’ rotation.

Among teams with reported interest, it appears the Wizards could offer the most money. But if DeRozan prefers the destination with the best opportunity to win a championship next season, rival suitors make more sense.

While Washington has expressed interest, this appears a long-shot pairing.

The in-house candidate: Anthony Gill

Some may view this as an unexciting signing. But Gill provides stability for a team undergoing noteworthy changes — both in personnel and expectations.

The 33-year-old forward is the longest-tenured Wizard. A return would mark his seventh season in Washington, many of those years spent mentoring the team’s young players.

Gill averaged 5.8 points and 2.9 rebounds across 55 appearances last season. He’s likely not the most skilled option, but his relationships within the organization and suitable contributions as a small-ball five could keep him around for another year, especially as the team’s 15th option who’s seldom asked to play meaningful minutes.

Fills a need: Gabe Vincent

It’s no secret Washington needs guard depth after trading two guards — D’Angelo Russell and Jaden Hardy — in deals that brought back a forward (Khris Middleton) and center (Deandre Ayton). Recent reports from Hoops Hype’s Michael Scotto confirmed Washington’s interest in adding another point guard.

The Wizards’ current guard rotation includes Trae Young, Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington. AJ Dybantsa, Will Riley and Bilal Coulibaly are capable of playing guard, but all three are better suited on the wing or at forward.

Vincent was linked to Washington in early July when Jake Fischer reported the team’s interest in the veteran guard. The 30-year-old averaged 4.4 points on 34.1% 3PT across 53 appearances with the Los Angeles Lakers and Atlanta Hawks last season.

Vincent has 60 playoff appearances under his belt and could serve as a capable depth guard if Washington signs him.

Fun signing: Brandon Williams

Williams, 26, is a shifty guard with impressive handles and tough shotmaking ability.

The Arizona product stands just 6-foot-1, but he can get to the hoop at will. And when he isn’t finishing contested layups, he’s breaking down defenses before spraying passes to open teammates.

Williams averaged 13.0 points and 3.9 assists on 47.2% FG last season. His 23.2% clip from 3-point range is one of the few blemishes on his otherwise skilled offensive game.

The Wizards need point guard depth. Williams is a younger option who could fill that hole for this season and possibly beyond.

Michael Malone and North Carolina basketball have added some additional size and length to their frontcourt for the upcoming 2026-27 season.

On Friday, Aug. 7 the Tar Heels landed South Dakota and All-Summit League center Cameron Fens out of the transfer portal, giving Malone and Co. a 7-foot, 255-pound big man on the interior.

"One of the most surreal moments of my life," Fens wrote in an Instagram post on Aug. 7. "Humbled to wear Carolina Blue and to represent this university. Excited to get to work. Go Heels! AGTG."

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