Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza officially declares for the NFL draft and could be the No. 1 pick

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. (AP) — The Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock, and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is officially available.

Mendoza formally declared for the NFL draft Friday and could be headed to the Raiders with the No. 1 pick in April. Mendoza led Indiana to a 16-0 season and its first national championship with a 27-21 victory against Miami on Monday night.

“Let's get to work,” Mendoza wrote in a social media post that included a highlight video. “I'm humbled to announce that I am officially declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft!”

The junior completed 72% of his passes this season for 3,535 yards, with 41 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also ran for seven scores. He played some of his best football in the College Football Playoff, with eight TD passes and no picks. He ran for a score against the Hurricanes, turning a fourth-and-4 play into a 12-yard scamper that proved to be a pivotal moment in the game. It extended Indiana’s lead to 24-14 in the fourth quarter.

Mendoza’s decision to turn pro was widely considered a mere formality. The Hoosiers seemingly tipped his NFL intentions when they signed TCU quarterback Josh Hoover during the open transfer portal window.

Mendoza is considered the clearcut top QB in the draft after Oregon’s Dante Moore announced he would return to school for the 2026 season. And the Raiders desperately need better quarterback play.

Las Vegas went 3-14 in 2025 and clinched the No. 1 overall pick with a loss to the New York Giants in Week 17. And the franchise will have a new coach after firing veteran Pete Carroll after one season.

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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here and here (AP News mobile app). AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

Nuggets vs. Bucks predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for January 23

The basic storylines for this game are the Nuggets continued strong play despite a plethora of injuries to key players including perennial MVP Nikola Jokic and the Bucks’ struggles to keep a playoff spot within sight while their perennial MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, continues executing his exit strategy.

Denver has won five straight on the road. They knocked off the Wizards in Washington last night, 107-97. Peyton Watson led the way with a career-high 35 points and Jamal Murray added 24 to pace the attack. Milwaukee has lost four of their last five overall including Wednesday night at home to OKC. Giannis had 19 in the loss.

These teams met almost two weeks ago on January 11 in Denver with the Nuggets prevailing, 108-104. Giannis had 31 points to lead all scorers but Tim Hardaway Jr.’s 25 off the bench for Denver paced a balanced attack for the Nuggets in the win.

Lets take a closer look at the matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

After 24 years, the NBA is back on NBC and Peacock, combining the nostalgia of an iconic era with the innovative future of basketball coverage. The NBA on NBC YouTube channel delivers fans must-see highlights, analysis, and exclusive and unique content. 

Game Details and How to Watch Live: Nuggets at Bucks

  • Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
  • Time: 9:30PM EST
  • Site: Fiserv Forum
  • City: Milwaukee, WI
  • Network/Streaming: Amazon Prime Video

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Game Odds: Nuggets at Bucks

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Denver Nuggets (+190), Milwaukee Bucks (-230)
  • Spread: Bucks -6.5
  • Total: 218.5 points

This game opened Bucks -4.5 with the Total set at 222.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule! 

Expected Starting Lineups: Nuggets at Bucks

Denver Nuggets

  • PG Jamal Murray
  • SG Jalen Pickett
  • SF Spencer Jones
  • PF Peyton Watson
  • C Aaron Gordon

Milwaukee Bucks

  • PG Ryan Rollins
  • SG AJ Green
  • SF Kyle Kuzma
  • PF Giannis Antetokounmpo
  • C Myles Turner

Injury Report: Nuggets at Bucks

Denver Nuggets

  • Nikola Jokic (knee) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Christian Braun (ankle) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Cam Johnson (knee) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Tamar Bates (foot) is OUT for tonight’s game

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Myles Turner (ankle) is probable for tonight’s game
  • Taurean Prince (neck) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Kevin Porter Jr. (oblique) is OUT for tonight’s game

Important stats, trends and insights: Nuggets at Bucks

  • The Bucks are 9-11 at home this season
  • The Nuggets lead the NBA with a road record of 18-7 this season
  • The Bucks are 19-24 ATS this season
  • The Nuggets are 26-19 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 27 of the Nuggets’ 45 games this season (27-18)
  • The OVER has cashed in 17 of the Bucks’ 43 games this season (17-26)
  • Jamal Murray has scored 20 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games and at least 24 in 11 of the 15
  • Giannis is shooting 66.9% from the field and averaging 26.6PPG in January
  • Giannis is averaging 28.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists this season

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
 
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Nuggets at Bucks’ game:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Nuggets +6.5
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total of 217.5

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar! 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: 

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) 
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) 
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick) 

Best NBA Player Props Today for January 23: Double Trouble!

Let’s start the weekend off right with some NBA player prop pick winners. 

I’ve found my three favorites for today, which include some plus-money bets for some under-the-radar guys who should get some added opportunities.

Check out those and more NBA picks for Friday, January 23, below.

Best NBA player props today

PlayerPickbet365
Cavaliers Evan MobleyDouble-double<<+135>>
Grizzlies Cam SpencerOver 2.5 made threes<<+125>>
Nuggets Jalen PickettOver 4.5 rebounds<<+105>>

Prop #1: Evan Mobley double-double

+135 at bet365

Finding consistency has been difficult for the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is why they’re just 25-20. 

But they’ve won eight of their last 12 games, and surprise, surprise, that’s exactly when Evan Mobley returned to the starting lineup.

Mobley is averaging 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds during that period, and I’m betting he has a productive night against the Sacramento Kings.

The Sacramento Kings rank dead last in rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most points in the paint per game. 

Mobley has two double-doubles in his last four games, and tonight looks like a perfect opportunity for him to get another.

  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio, NBC Sports California

Prop #2: Cam Spencer Over 2.5 made threes

+125 at bet365

The Memphis Grizzlies are a mess right now, and I’m not just talking about the Ja Morant drama.

The Grizz have six guys sidelined for tonight’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans, including Morant, and have lost eight of their last 11 games.

But somebody is going to have to put up some shots for Memphis, and I’m looking at shooting guard Cam Spencer.

The deadeye 3-point shooter is hitting a ridiculous 45.8% from deep, while the Pelicans allow the second-most threes per game. 

At this price, I love Spencer to drain a bunch of treys.

  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, Gulf Coast Sports

Prop #3: Jalen Pickett Over 4.5 rebounds

+105 at bet365

The Denver Nuggets have had to get creative with their rotations thanks to all the injuries they’ve dealt with.

For instance, 26-year-old guard Jalen Pickett has now made eight starts in a row. And he’s made the most of it, averaging 8.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.

Let’s focus on his work on the boards because the Milwaukee Bucks rank next-to-last in rebounding rate despite having one of the best rebounders in the NBA.

Pickett has hauled down five or more boards in seven of those eight starts, and we’re still getting plus money on this bet.

  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Prime Video 

These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Pacers vs Thunder Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

It’s a rematch of last season’s NBA Finals tonight as the Indiana Pacers visit the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center.

Pascal Siakam is cooking right now, and my Pacers vs. Thunder predictions are eyeing him to have another impressive performance this evening. 

Read more in my NBA picks for Friday, January 23.  

Pacers vs Thunder prediction

Pacers vs Thunder best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points (-112)

The absence of Tyrese Haliburton has hurt the struggling Indiana Pacers, but Pascal Siakam has stepped into a top role and absolutely flourished.

The veteran is averaging a career-best 23.8 PPG, and he deserves to earn an All-Star nod in the Eastern Conference. 

Siakam is having a solid January, averaging 25 points per night. He’s also cashed the Over in four consecutive appearances, most recently dropping 32 points in a loss to the Celtics on Wednesday evening. 

The Cameroonian is playing even better on the road, averaging 25.2 PPG compared to 22.8 PPG at home. He also erupted against the Oklahoma City Thunder earlier in the campaign, scoring 32 points. 

Siakam will do his thing here. 

Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay

Chet Holmgren is averaging 17.8 PPG this season, but he’s only scoring 16.5 PPG in January, and he’s been struggling lately. The big man has cashed the Under in points in five of his last six outings. 

The last time Holmgren faced the Pacers, he played 39 minutes but scored only 15 points. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having another MVP campaign, averaging 32 PPG. He’s also shooting the three well, drainnig 39% of his attempts.

The guard was 2-for-7 from downtown earlier this season against the Pacers. 

Pacers vs Thunder SGP

  • Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points
  • Chet Holmgren Under 18.5 points
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes

Our "from downtown" SGP: Dort delivers

Lu Dort has cashed the Over in points in back-to-back games, scoring 13 and 18 points. 

Pacers vs Thunder SGP

  • Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points
  • Chet Holmgren Under 18.5 points
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes
  • Lu Dort Over 9.5 points

Pacers vs Thunder odds

  • Spread: Pacers +750 | Thunder -1200
  • Moneyline: Pacers +16 | Thunder -16
  • Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5

Pacers vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Thunder have covered the Spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Thunder.

How to watch Pacers vs Thunder

LocationPaycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
DateFriday, January 23, 2026
Tip-off8:00 p.m. ET
TVFDSN

Pacers vs Thunder latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Former NFL player Kevin Johnson killed at homeless encampment, medical examiner says

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Former Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineman Kevin Johnson died from “blunt head trauma and stab wounds” at a homeless encampment, according to the medical examiner.

The Los Angeles County Medical Examiner said Johnson, 55, was pronounced dead Wednesday morning after being found unconscious. His death was ruled a homicide and is being investigated.

A fourth-round draft pick by New England in 1993, Johnson spent time with the Patriots, Minnesota and Oakland before landing with the Eagles. He had 43 tackles, including seven sacks, and returned a fumble for a touchdown in two years with Philadelphia. He played 15 games for the Raiders in 1997.

Johnson later played in the Arena Football League for Orlando and Los Angeles. The L.A. native played collegiately at Texas Southern.

Investigators believe Johnson had been living at the encampment at the time of his death. Friends said Johnson had health issues later in life that contributed to his situation.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

Reed leads in Dubai and McIlroy needs a big weekend to challenge for the title

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Patrick Reed moved into the lead at the Dubai Desert Classic on Friday and has a familiar foe trying to chase him down over the weekend.

Rory McIlroy sounds up for the fight, too.

“I came from 10 behind a couple years ago to win,” the No. 2-ranked McIlroy said defiantly. “I think I’m seven back at the minute.”

McIlroy sure will need to improve to reel in Reed, the former Masters champion who kept his card clean and shot 6-under 66 to take a one-stroke lead after the second round at Emirates Golf Club.

Reed, a LIV Golf member who plays frequently on the European tour, made four birdies and a 40-footer for eagle at the par-5 13th. The American was on 9-under 135 for the week.

McIlroy birdied the par-5 18th to shoot 69 and repair some of the damage from a 72 in the first round.

Few know the course better than McIlroy, the record four-time champion — including in 2024 when he was 11 shots back heading onto the 18th hole on the Friday yet still won, and in 2023 when he outlasted Reed in a memorable final-round duel that got personal.

Throw in their loud singles match at the Ryder Cup in 2016, won by Reed, and they certainly have some history.

“If I go out there tomorrow, maybe in slightly better conditions in the morning, and post a low one, then I’ll be right in the mix come Sunday,” said McIlroy, who was tied for 20th.

Reed, who has placed second and 10th in his two other appearances at the Dubai Desert Classic, said he was happy with his game, having started with a round of 69 in much tougher conditions.

“The good thing is today I felt like (I'm) hitting the ball exactly where I need to and I feel like I’m hitting some solid putts,” Reed said.

Andy Sullivan finished birdie-eagle to shoot 65 — the lowest round of the day — and was alone in second place, one stroke ahead of Italian pair Andrea Pavan (68) and first-round leader Francesco Molinari (72).

Johnson misses cut

Dustin Johnson, the longtime former No. 1, was the biggest name to miss the cut after a second straight 74.

The American is becoming an afterthought in golf after moving to the breakaway LIV circuit in 2022, the same year as Reed, and has slid to No. 639 in the world ranking.

Fleetwood languishing

No. 3-ranked Tommy Fleetwood is another headliner in Dubai, where he now lives, but only just made the cut after struggling to a 72 to be 10 shots off the lead.

Better placed was Tyrrell Hatton, the defending champion who shot 69 and was in sixth place, four strokes off the lead.

Hatton, another LIV golfer, chipped in for eagle at the short par-4 No. 17 for his highlight of the day.

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AP golf: https://apnews.com/hub/golf

Rockets vs. Pistons predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for January 23

After blowing a fourth quarter lead and losing in OT in Philadelphia last night, Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets (26-16) are in the Motor City tonight to face Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons (32-10).

Durant scored 36 and Amen Thompson added 17 in the loss for the Rockets. Joel Embiid had a night for Philly scoring 32, pulling down 15 boards and handing out 10 assists.

The task is no easier tonight for the Rockets. It’s the second half of a back-to-back and the opponent are the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. They lead the conference in rebounding (46.3 per game). Cunningham, who is averaging 25.7 points and 9.8 assists, is the unquestioned leader of the Pistons but his availability is a question mark tonight (illness). Detroit owns a sparkling 17-4 record at home this season.

The Rockets sit fourth in the Western Conference. Following last night’s loss in Philly, Houston has now lost five in a row. Houston is the top rebounding team in the Western Conference (49.0/gm) led by Alperen Sengun (9.2reb/gm).

The Pistons won the first meeting of the season between these teams, 115-111 on October 24. Cunningham had 21 points and 9 assists to pace Detroit. Durant had 37 for Houston in the loss.

Lets take a closer look at the matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including thelatest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

After 24 years, the NBA is back on NBC and Peacock, combining the nostalgia of an iconic era with the innovative future of basketball coverage. The NBA on NBC YouTube channel delivers fans must-see highlights, analysis, and exclusive and unique content. 

Game Details and How to Watch Live: Rockets at Pistons

  • Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
  • Time: 7PM EST
  • Site: Little Caesars Arena
  • City: Detroit, MI
  • Network/Streaming: Amazon Prime Video

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Game Odds: Rockets at Pistons

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Houston Rockets (+140), Detroit Pistons (-166)
  • Spread: Pistons -3.5
  • Total: 216.5 points

This game opened Pistons -3.5 with the Total set at 217.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule! 

Expected Starting Lineups: Rockets at Pistons

Houston Rockets

  • PG Amen Thompson
  • SG Josh Okogie
  • SF Kevin Durant
  • PF Jabari Smith
  • C Alperen Sengun

Detroit Pistons

  • PG Cade Cunningham
  • SG Duncan Robinson
  • SF Ausar Thompson
  • PF Tobias Harris
  • C Jalen Duren

Injury Report: Rockets at Pistons

Houston Rockets

  • Aaron Holiday (back) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Steven Adams (ankle) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Fred VanVleet (knee) is OUT for tonight’s game

Detroit Pistons

  • Cade Cunningham (illness) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
  • Duncan Robinson (back) is listed as probable for tonight’s game
  • Ronald Holland (back) is listed as probable for tonight’s game
  • Caris LeVert (illness) is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game

Important stats, trends and insights: Rockets at Pistons

  • The Pistons are 17-4 at home this season
  • The Rockets are 11-13 on the road this season
  • The Pistons are 22-20 ATS this season
  • The Rockets are 20-22 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 17 of the Pistons’ 42 games this season (17-24-1)
  • The OVER has cashed in 19 of the Rockets’ 42 games this season (19-21-1)
  • Reed Shepherd has hit at least three, 3-pointers in each of the Rockets’ last 4 games (15-30)
  • Tobias Harris has not taken a single free throw in the Pistons’ last 3 games

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
 
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Rockets and Pistons’ game:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Pistons on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Pistons -3.5
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 216.5

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar! 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: 

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) 
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) 
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick) 

Wizards Lose Eighth Straight

In a classic dog days of the NBA season kind of game, the Wizards lost to the Denver Nuggets, 107-97. It was Washington’s eighth straight loss, and it was a slog to watch.

Both teams seemed tired and low energy. The Nuggets had something of an excuse — they played Tuesday in Los Angeles and flew across the country. Washington’s last game was at home on Monday afternoon. Maybe they had some hard practices?

Wizards guard Tre Johnson played a solid game in the team’s loss to the Denver Nuggets.

Despite both teams missing loads of shots, they combined for 17 total transition points — nine for the Wizards, and eight for the the Nuggets. The Nuggets walked the ball up the floor on many possessions. They exhibited relatively disciplined shot selection and won just enough possessions to get the win.

The Wizards, who usually push the ball up the floor quickly after opponent makes or misses, were content to walk it up themselves. Unlike the Nuggets, they were far more likely to take a quick shot. If there was a theme in this game, it was Washington working hard individually to get a difficult shot, and the Nuggets working as a team to get better ones.

This was certainly not a rule. Jamal Murray had a “Murray Flurry” (as dubbed by the Nuggets broadcast) in the third quarter that was heavy on isos. Peyton Watson had a few terrific one-on-one play. In general, though, the Nuggets would run actions and move ball and players until they got an advantage, and then attack.

Watson played great for the Nuggets — a career-high 35 points along with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 4 blocks. He took a hard fall when he got clotheslined trying to dunk on Khris Middleton after earlier turning his ankle landing after scoring a highlight-reel bucked on Alex Sarr. His emergence as a quality offensive option is a great development for Denver — made possible by Nikola Jokic’s knee injury.

Thoughts & Observations

  • While transition defense wasn’t much of an issue last night (the Nuggets were apparently too tired to run), one play early in the game exemplified the team’s struggles defending in transition. Denver came up with a steal and Murray started up the floor. Tre Johnson was the only defender back — two Nuggets players were ahead of the ball. Johnson had to choose — match up with his man on the wing or pick up Aaron Gordon in the center of the floor. Correct prioritization would have sent him to Gordon. Johnson went to the wing. That left Gordon alone under the rim for an easy dunk.
  • I could be wrong on this one, but…there was an offensive fast break I think the Wizards got wrong. They had a three-on-two. Kyshawn George had the ball and was dribbling to the offensive end right-of-center of the court. To his left was Sarr in the middle and Will Riley on the wing. To me, the right play would have been for George to go to the middle and for Sarr to cross over to get on his right — ball in the middle flanked by offensive players. Another option could have been for George to move further right to open more of a lane for Sarr to come down the middle of the lane and force a Denver defender to guard two guys. Instead, George dribbled straight up the floor, Sarr and Riley ran their lanes, and Denver defenders never had to make a real decision. The tight spacing gave George only two real options — drive into two defenders or kick it out to Riley on the wing. The tight spacing meant there was a relatively short closeout. Riley missed the three-point attempt, and the Wizards didn’t score on a three-on-two break.
  • George was this close to having an impressive game, despite shooting just 6-17 from the floor. He had 12 rebounds, 7 assists, and a steal. The three turnovers were acceptable given the assists and his overall offensive load. He’s gotta stop fouling so much — especially the pointless tantrumy ones.
  • The spate of “injuries” meant that Anthony Gill got rotation minutes, and he wasn’t bad.
  • One good thing: unlike their last matchup with the Nuggets, I didn’t see the Wizards helping off Murray. He had to work harder to generate offense.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORSNUGGETSWIZARDSLGAVG
eFG%50.0%45.8%54.4%
OREB%28.2%28.6%26.1%
TOV%11.8%15.1%12.8%
FTM/FGA0.2890.2380.211
PACE9399.6
ORTG115104115.7

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Tre Johnson346612421.4%1.1125-11
Kyshawn George346611030.5%-1.1118-4
Alex Sarr367111819.0%0.4106-9
Justin Champagnie18351916.9%1.81312
Anthony Gill12232134.3%0.91171
Will Riley21409627.5%-2.2635
Jamir Watkins183610611.3%-0.4722
Bub Carrington38747222.5%-7.310-18
Khris Middleton28547718.5%-3.9-43-18
NUGGETSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Peyton Watson407817023.8%9.937513
Jamal Murray367010929.0%-1.317218
Aaron Gordon336513219.2%2.013623
Jonas Valanciunas224312930.6%1.7152-3
Bruce Brown18359624.2%-1.7150-7
Spencer Jones28541213.2%0.1450
Zeke Nnaji102013311.5%0.490-2
Jalen Pickett33636813.3%-4.0-1516
Tim Hardaway Jr.20381921.0%-7.8-172-8

What we learned from win over the Jazz

The San Antonio Spurs salvaged the rest of their brief road trip with a close call in Utah against the young Jazz. It was one of those rare occasions in which records could be misleading because the Jazz (15-30) have more talent than their record indicates, put up a fight at home and have made lots of internal growth since October. It almost felt like watching a grandmaster at the chessboard sweat it out against a younger prospect who will be a bigger factor in the next few years.   

Keyonte George, who should probably be the Most Improved player, and Ace Bailey are the real deal and have lots to do with that. These games will continue to be special, too, since Bailey and Dylan Harper are former teammates at Rutgers who will bring the intensity against each other. Team CEO Danny Ainge should stop holding Lauri Markkanen hostage and trade him for youngsters and assets to bolster the Jazz, since he is a gateway player.

There was good reason to be impressed by the Spurs’ 3-point shooting as well. It was only the 10th time in their regular-season history that three Spurs made at least four in the same game, with De’Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie and Victor Wembanyama combining to hit 15-25. 

This is also a good time to point out that Luke Kornet is as good as a backup big man gets, and the team is vulnerable in his absences when Wembanyama sits. He takes up a lot of space, which helps disrupt shot attempts and grab rebounds. On these nights, Wembanyama has had to be close to perfect, and in this case, he was.

Takeaways

  • It’s incredible how the Jazz and many other teams lose track of Champagnie, especially when he’s wearing the loudest sneakers in the building. Keep in mind that only four players had made more 3-pointers in January heading into the matchup. Nonetheless, it was his seventh time this year making at least five treys in a game. This type of long-range production makes him the perfect “in case of emergency, break glass” type of player. He moves well without the ball and roams the area opposing defenses help off too easily. Consider how 76.5 percent of his 3-point attempts are open to wide-open, per the NBA’s tracking data.
  • Carter Bryant has sky-high potential as one of the top defenders in the NBA.  He’s got a rare combination of hustle and athleticism that will help him guard up. Additionally, it doesn’t matter that he’s only averaging 2.5 points on 8.2 minutes per game. He’s only age 20, and I’m always glued to my seat when he checks in. Rookies, even late lottery picks, deserve a grace period while they figure out offense. He’s starting to look more comfortable on that end, taking what the offense gives him instead of seeking out highlight-real dunks (that don’t always go down).
  • Considering the team’s recent late-game struggles, closing out the Jazz in the fourth quarter with fireworks from and Wembanyama was big time. It was a 180° turn from the fourth quarter they blew in Houston on Tuesday, in which they combined for 18 percent shooting. It’s been a slight speed bump, but it’s important that the team can look to the stars for direction. When they do things like this, it gives them extra credibility in the locker room when they need to call everyone to attention.
  • If we are talking about the spirit of the Sixth Man of the Year award, Keldon Johnson should be the leading man. It’s starting to feel like a surprise when he misses because he’s averaging a 62. 4 effective field goal percentage.  He led the bench in this one with 21 points, 5 assists, a steal and a block.
  • Undoubtedly, one of the hardest things for a team to do is run like greyhounds while maintaining a top-shelf defense. The Spurs guarded well and set a new season high of 32 fastbreak points on Thursday. They are a middle-of-the-pack team in pace (100.67) yet effective when flooring it, partly because of Wembanyama‘s rebounding and outlet passing. 
  • Props to Kevin Love, who moves like an old buffalo in his advanced age but maintains a high level of vigor. It’s always great to have pedigree like that in a locker room, which reminds one of how Chris Paul was a good veteran who had a positive effect on the Spurs last year.

NBA 2025-26 midseason Coach of the Year: Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics

We've reached the midpoint of an NBA season that has been filled with surprises — Detroit and Boston lead the East, San Antonio is second in the West — and also far too many injuries to stars. It's also given us jaw-dropping moments, and not just the ones Victor Wembanyama seems to deliver us on a nightly basis.

The midpoint also means it's time to take stock of the NBA postseason awards. All week long, I will make my picks for some of the NBA's top awards at this point in the season, plus get betting angles from NBC Sports experts. Today: Coach of the Year.

NBA Coach of the Year: Joe Mazzulla (Celtics)

2. J.B. Bickerstaff (Pistons)
3. Jordan Ott (Suns)

Analysis of Coach of the Year race

This is always one of the hardest decisions of the year, in part because there are so many good coaches in the NBA. At different points in the past month, I had each of those top three as the winner. Right now, I am leaning toward Mazzulla.

It was difficult before the season started to find a mention of the Boston Celtics without the words "gap year" attached — Joe Mazzulla was having none of that. He has shown he can do more with less, putting role players in position to thrive and keeping the defense respectable despite not having a great rim protector on the roster. Mazzulla has a ring, but this is his best coaching job.

Detroit's J.B. Bickerstaff is almost in a coin flip with Mazzulla for me, although it's two years of work — don't forget that two years ago this was a historically bad 14-win season. It's more than Cade Cunningham, Bickerstaff has helped Jalen Duren develop and put him in positions to succeed. He has coached the Pistons to the second-best defense in the league by understanding the talent he has and working to maximize it. Jordan Ott didn't just help change the culture in Phoenix, he has changed the defensive scheme to fit this roster and thrive, and he completely changed the shot diet for the Suns. Ott has been brilliant.

Mitch Johnson from the Spurs deserves consideration, as he has the Spurs far ahead of schedule. Do not forget about Mark Daigneault and his ability to keep the Thunder focused when most teams coast. David Adelman in Denver has to be mentioned in this conversation, the Nuggets have been hit hard with injuries and just keeps winning. Erik Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit for what has gone right in Miami this season.

Betting Coach of the Year Race

We reached out to the NBC Sports betting experts for their thoughts on the Rookie of the Year race and how they might bet it.

Jay Croucher, NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst

A very strong field this year, but JB Bickerstaff deserves favoritism and should win the award if the Pistons hang onto the #1 seed. A team built in his image, Bickerstaff has taken a 14-68 team to a probable 1-seed in just two years.

Celtics vs. Nets Film Preview

You got a date Friday night? It’s okay if you don’t. The Boston Celtics have a date with the Brooklyn Nets, and you can watch. I’m here to prepare you for this game with a handful of plays, matchups, and tactics that could decide the winner. Let’s get into it.

Over the Hedge

Nets head coach Jordi Fernandez loves to play on the front foot. Despite the youth of his roster and the transient nature of many of the role players, he’s going to get aggressive in order to pressure his opponents. That involves a lot of hedging in pick-and-rolls when his team is facing pull-up shooters.

That’s a tactic in which the roll man defender rises above the screen to disrupt the ballhandler’s momentum, then retreats to cover his own man. Typically, this involves someone stunting the roller or providing early help if a pass comes over the top. It takes away easy pull-up threes (something the Celtics thrive on), but it exposes them to easier roll reads. Here’s the gamble Fernandez took in their last game: the Nets will live with whatever happens on the roll instead of letting the trigger-happy Celtics guards get easy three-point looks. Neemias Queta took that strategy and put it in the dirt.

In very typical Fernandez fashion, this scheme ratchets up the pressure on both teams. Queta has to roll into the right spot and receive a good pass from his guard. The Nets have to rotate properly to stop the roll, then cover the immediate passing options. Queta has to decide where to pass, and his teammates need to cut/relocate into space to help with his read. It’s a fragile chain of events for both sides and whoever executes on that chain of events will be at a big advantage.

Pressure Flare

Flare screens are a pet action for the Celtics. When you have a plethora of shooters and good screeners, it’s an easy way to generate threes and drives. Facing a Nets team that plays four rookies in the rotation, even your simplest actions can cause communication problems. Flare-based actions created all kinds of problems for Brooklyn in the last matchup.

Brooklyn is 29th in defensive rim attempt frequency and 21st in defensive rim FG% according to Cleaning the Glass. It doesn’t take much to break the paint against this team; Joe Mazzulla can lean on easy actions to drum up drives. Look for plenty of flare screens on Friday night.

Lockdown Neem

The Nets have a problem with rim pressure on defense, but not as much on offense. Seven of their rotation players have rim rates at 50% or better this season. Perimeter prevention is important, but some of these Nets are going to get to the rim sooner than later. This is another pressure point for Neemias Queta, who needs to be his best rim-protecting self on Friday. Luckily for the Celtics, he was that guy in their November matchups.

Timely rotations and big blocks can hamstring a Nets offense that has been on life support recently. If Neem gets active early and deters them from venturing into his paint, that’ll go a long way towards the win.

I hope you feel a bit more prepared for this game. Now kick back and bask in some Celtics excellence.

3 Things to watch for in Cavs vs Kings

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing their first game of the season against the Sacramento Kings. They’ll be at home tonight. Cleveland went 0-2 against the Kings last year.

Defense

After spending two weeks in the bottom-10 of defense rating, Cleveland snapped back to being elite when they held the Charlotte Hornets to just 87 points in their latest win.

I couldn’t say this was all due to the Cavaliers’ defense. The Hornets also happened to shoot well below their expected percentage. Especially on open three-point attempts. But hey, luck is part of this thing. And I thought the Cavs did a fine job of protecting the paint and leaving Charlotte with few options other than chucking threes on a night where they simply didn’t have it.

Replicating this effort against the Kings should be feasible. This is a far less dangerous offense, with SAC ranking 28th in offensive rating this season. Of course, you can’t take anything for granted in the NBA, but I’d be upset if the Cavs didn’t turn in another strong defensive performance tonight.

Taking Care of the Ball

This is becoming an issue.

Cleveland has turned the ball over at an unusual rate this season. They rank 13th in turnover percentage, which isn’t awful, but it’s a steep decline from being fourth last season. Part of this is that they don’t have as many capable ball-handlers and playmakers as before. Injuries to Darius Garland and Max Strus, combined with losing Ty Jerome and Caris LeVert, have mattered.

The Cavs had 20 turnovers in Charlotte, 21 turnovers against the OKC Thunder, and 18 turnovers in Philly. This is a trend that can’t continue if they want to stack wins.

Evan Mobley’s Usage

I’m repeating one of my points from our last preview. Mobley has to be involved for the full length of the game. I really don’t want ot keep writing about this.

We saw Mobley get to his spots effortlessly in the first half against the Hornets. For him to finish the second half with only 1 point on two field goal attempts is a crime. This is a problem the team has long neglected. It’s time we see them finally address this and put their best foot forward.

Let’s get a high-volume game from Ev.

Houston Rockets vs. Detroit Pistons game preview

After a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, the Houston Rockets head to Detroit to take on a Pistons team that can be the first to sweep Houston this season.

These teams met back in October, and even with Jalen Duren getting ejected early, the Rockets allowed the Pistons to play their own style and never let Houston get going. Now, the Pistons are leading the Eastern Conference quite comfortably and the Rockets are trying to stay out of the play-in spots in the West.

The Rockets have been terrible on the second nights of back-to-backs, they finally got a win last week against the Anthony Edwards-less Minnesota Timberwolves. Will they get win #2 tonight?

Tip-off

6pm CT on January 23, 2026

How To Watch

Space City Home Network, Prime Video

Injury Report

Rockets

Steven Adams: OUT

Pistons

Cade Cunningham: GTD

Ron Holland II: GTD

Duncan Robinson: GTD

Caris LeVert: GTD

The Line (as of this post)

DET -3.5

Check here for updates

Looking ahead because we can

Monday night at home against the Memphis Grizzlies

A year in review: looking back on the year since the Luka Dončić trade

On February 1, 2025, former Mavericks GM Nico Harrison changed the lives of everyone associated with the Dallas Mavericks when he traded Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers in the most shocking trade in recent sports history.

The move sparked immediate outrage and shock from the entire league and resulted in Harrison’s firing nine months later — a swift, but necessary resolution to one of the most shocking betrayals to a fanbase from a sports executive in league history.

Now, nearly a year later, the Lakers will be coming to Dallas for the second time since the trade commenced. Los Angeles’ first trip back — a 112-97 April 9 Lakers win where Dončić dominated the Mavericks to cheers from the American Airlines Center crowd — felt like something out of a sports movie. Home fans rooting for an opposing player throughout the game is exceptionally rare, especially in modern sports, yet it happened in April and I expect it to happen again Saturday.

It’s been a year unlike any other in sports fandom. Here’s a look back at a 12-month span that forever altered the Dallas Mavericks, from the fans to the players to the front office.

February 1, 2025, 11:12 CST: The Tweet

Late in the evening of February 1, ESPN’s Shams Charania shocked the world when he announced the Dallas Mavericks were trading Dončić, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round pick in a three-team deal that included the Utah Jazz.

Fans across all teams immediately thought the tweet was a farce. “Has Shams been hacked?” started trending on social media and Charania told the Old Man and the Three podcast that his phone was blowing up with questions about if he’d been hacked.

“I answered five people on phone calls, texts I couldn’t, it was literally up to 300 messages,” he recalled.

But the trade was real, stunning the world. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported that night that Harrison “believed defense wins championships” and that the Mavericks had “major concerns” about moving forward with Dončić due to his “constant conditioning issues.”

February 8, 2025: Davis makes debut after fans protest trade

A week later, the Mavericks hosted the Houston Rockets in Anthony Davis’ debut as a Maverick, but the headlines that day weren’t focused on the game; it was on the scene outside the arena.

Thousands of fans flooded Victory Plaza outside the arena to protest the historic trade. People held signs, chanted
“Fire Nico” and voiced their displeasure at the move. Inside the arena, Davis and the Mavericks defeated the Rockets, but the Mavericks’ new star exited the game in the third quarter with an injury.

For many, the trade was a turning point, ticket sales declined 40% that season after the trade. In November, the team’s 24-season streak of sellout games was snapped.

February 25, 2025: Dončić faces Mavericks for first time

Dallas traveled to Los Angeles to play the Lakers three weeks later with Harrison in attendance. The Lakers defeated the Mavericks, 107-99, with Dončić securing a triple double in the win. Davis missed the game with an injury.

Inside Crypto.com arena,“ Thank you, Nico!” chants erupted from the Lakers faithful. Harrison was in attendance for the game, and it was likely the last public sporting event where he’d ever receive a positive reception.

April 9, 2025: Dončić returns to Dallas

Two months after the trade, Dončić returned to American Airlines Center in one of the most surreal games I’ve ever witnessed as a fan. Purple and gold jerseys flooded AAC — which wasn’t uncommon for a Lakers road game, Los Angeles has one of the fiercest fanbases in the NBA — but most of the jerseys had one name: Dončić.

Purple and gold meshed with navy blue and white with the same name donned across the back. The Mavericks played a video tribute before the game for Dončić, who teared up on the sidelines as fans applauded the then-25 year old’s tenure in Dallas that included a 2022 Western Conference Finals run and a 2024 NBA Finals run.

Then, the game started, and if you thought Dončić would start slow due to the emotionof the game, he quickly showed the fans and the world just how big a mistake the Mavericks made.

He lit up the Mavericks, scoring 45 points on 16-28 shooting, including 7-10 from three-point range. Dallas fans erupted with every made basket, almost as if to rebel against their own team. Dončić added eight rebounds, six assists and four steals for good measure, and the Lakers clinched a playoff spot while Dallas dropped yet another game, a common theme for the post-Dončić era.

“It was little bit of both happy and angry, but it’s nice to see some familiar faces here,” Dončić said after the game. “…I really appreciate the fans.”

May 12, 2025: Mavericks win draft lottery

The Dallas Mavericks defied all odds and won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, despite having just a 1.8% chance to secure the No. 1 pick. It was the first time in franchise history Dallas had moved up in the draft lottery and it put them in position to draft Cooper Flagg.

In June, Dallas did just that, drafting Flagg with the No. 1 pick and beginning a new era of Mavericks basketball. The front office made it clear they were trying to move on and turn over a new leaf. The fans were not yet ready to do so.

November 10, 2025: Tensions boil over

Harrison had tried for nine months to outlast the fan outrage, hoping a flashy new rookie and visions of him, Davis, and Kyrie Irving would soothe fan’s rage.

It did not.

On November 10, tensions boiled over when the Mavericks faced off against the Milwaukee Bucks. Dallas blew a 13-point 4th-quarter lead, but had a chance to tie the game late after P.J. Washington, who had pleaded with fans to stop their chants during the game, stepped to the line to shoot three free throws with Dallas down 3.

“Fire Nico! Fire Nico! Fire Nico!”

Time seemed to stand still in that moment. With Davis watching from the sidelines with yet another injury, the fans staged their final stage of revolt. They no longer cared if their team won or lost. They only cared about Harrison being gone. Nothing else mattered.

That was when team governor Patrick Dumont knew enough was enough.

November 11, 2025: Harrison fired

Harrison was fired the next morning and the Mavericks named two co-GM’s, Matt Ricardi and Michael Finley, to lead the front office while they began a search for a new permanent general manager.

After four years as GM, a run that saw Dallas reach the WCF and NBA Finals, Harrison was out just nine months after the trade. Some things are too big to escape, and Harrison learned that the hard way.

January 24, 2026: Dončić returns again

A year ago, Dallas was a title contender looking to get back to the NBA Finals while the Lakers were facing questions about the direction of their franchise with two aging stars and a lack of appealing draft capital.

Now, everything has flipped.

Los Angeles, fifth in the West, now looks to establish themselves as the contender while Dallas starts a years-long rebuild. Flagg’s quick ascension will provide some comfort for Mavericks fans and gives a glimpse into what the future can hold, but the Mavericks are years away from being in the Finals, while Dončić looks to lead his second franchise to the championship series, hopefully this time with a different ending.

Rockets reportedly interested in Pelicans Jose Alvarado

By now, I’m sure you’ve heard. And noticed.

The Houston Rockets need a point guard.

Although it’s not as bad as it seems.

There’s a difficult path, as it pertains to acquiring an external one. Houston is just $1.2 million under the apron.

The NBA’s hard cap is real.

We know this.

We’ve seen Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploy a hodgepodge of methods toward replacing Fred VanVleet.

Or attempting to.

No option has been perfect. Amen Thompson running point takes him away from his best offensive skills, which is attacking, cutting to the rim and slashing.

Instead, it leaves him at the top of the key, oftentimes standing around and/or taking low-percentage threes.

Kevin Durant has been relied on to handle some of the playmaking and offensive initiation, but he’s rather turnover prone. Especially when blitzed or trapped.

Reed Sheppard is a good option, save for the fact that he gets hunted defensively. He’s thrived in an off-ball role.

JD Davison is a decent fall back, but you don’t necessarily want to be relying on a two-way signee for offensive playmaking and creation.

Especially not the bulk of it. And he’s the best pick-and-roll point guard on the roster.

According to Chris Haynes of NBA on Prime, the Rockets have interest in New Orleans Pelicans point guard Jose Alvarado.

“Jose Alvarado.. The Houston Rockets—they have kind of did some background on Alvarado.”

Alvarado is a defensive pest. He’s also the type of player who you hate when he’s not on your team but absolutely love to have on your team.

He’s a hell of a spark off the bench and is infectious.

In 22 minutes of action, he averages 7.9 points, 3.3 assists, 2.8 rebounds one steal, 42.4 percent from the field, 36.1 percent from three (4.4 attempts) and 82.6 percent from the foul line.

He has a player option next season worth $4.5 million and has a $4.5 million number this season also, making him a realistic target, should they decide to look into making a move.

There will be competition for his services, however, as Haynes also reported the New York Knicks are interested in Alvarado’s services as well.