LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry may all be close to the sunsets of their careers, but take a moment to appreciate the big-man play we should enjoy from the Western Conference for years to come.
Nikola Jokic, Chet Holmgren, and Victor Wembanyama are all space-bending athletes, while Jaren Jackson Jr., Alperen Sengun, and Donovan Clingan all operate more like traditional bigs.
The first-round matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs can also be seen as a matchup between Clingan and Wembanyama.
Victor Wembanyama is a difficult matchup for everyone in the NBA. He may be particularly difficult for the Portland Trail Blazers. They need Donovan Clingan on the court, but Wembanyama is too quick for Clingan away from the rim.
Presumably by coincidence, Wembanyama never actually faced the Trail Blazers this season, but look at how he fared in the San Antonio Spurs’ matchups against them last year, Clingan’s rookie season.
Wembanyama scored just 12 points in that first game, but he then scored 28 and 30 points in the next two matchups, both in December.
Clingan was not yet at full speed as a rookie, but he was hardly a deterrent for Wembanyama.
The Frenchmen should win on the perimeter, should win on drives, and should win in transition. That is too many ways to score not to exact some joy in his playoff debut.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs open their first-round NBA playoff series. The Spurs won two of the teams’ three regular-season meetings. The Blazers landed the West’s No. 7 playoff seed by beating the Phoenix Suns in the play-in tournament. The Spurs are making their first playoff appearance since 2019.
How to watch Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs: 62-20 (West’s No. 1 playoff seed)
Odds
Spread: San Antonio Spurs -10.5
Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs -625 (82.6%) / Portland Trail Blazers +450 (17.4%)
Over/Under: 220.5
Series schedule
Game 1:Portland at San Antonio on Sunday, April 19 (9 p.m., NBC) Game 2: Portland at San Antonio on Tuesday, April 21 (8 p.m., NBC) Game 3: San Antonio at Portland on Friday, April 24 (10:30 p.m., Prime Video) Game 4: San Antonio at Portland on Sunday, April 26 (3:30 p.m., ESPN) *Game 5: Portland at San Antonio on Tuesday, April 28 (time and network TBD) *Game 6: San Antonio at Portland on Thursday, April 30 (time and network TBD) *Game 7: Portland at San Antonio on Saturday, May 2 (time and network TBD)
Game 1 between the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons opens with Detroit laying a significant number — and for good reason.
But instead of just looking at the spread, prediction markets show how often each team is expected to win outright.
That gives a cleaner baseline for Magic vs Pistons predictions, and helps identify where those probabilities may differ from sportsbook odds and your overall NBA picks for Sunday, April 19.
The Detroit Pistons, led by Cade Cunningham, are given a 78% chance to win Game 1, while Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic sit at just 23% to pull off the road upset.
Our prediction:Pistons to win
Our NBA expert likes Detroit to get the job done: "When you pair Detroit’s 31-9 home record with Orlando’s draining week of play-in peril, it’s easy to make the case for Cade Cunningham and Co here. Though the Magic have the personnel for a physical series, they face an uphill task in Game 1, with the Pistons poised for a fast start at Little Caesars Arena."
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More Magic vs Pistons prediction markets
You're certainly not limited to the main game outcome for Magic vs. Pistons at Kalshi; you also have options to trade on the spread, total, and more, among other NBA odds markets.
You can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on the Pistons -6.5 spread means the Pistons will cover, while "No" means the Magic will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using theCovers odds converter).
Magic vs Pistons spread and total at prediction markets
Outcome
Yes
No
Pistons -6.5
60¢ (-150)
41¢ (+144)
Over 218.5 points
53¢ (-113)
48¢ (+108)
Our predictions:Pistons -6.5 — Yes and Over 218.5 points — Yes/No
Our projections back the Detroit Pistons to cover -6.5, with their edge on both ends creating separation in Game 1. On the total, 218.5 sits right on the number — making it more of a lean than a strong position depending on pace and shooting early.
Other Magic vs Pistons prediction markets available
Ausar Thompson 10+ points (Yes: 55¢)
Cade Cunningham 6+ rebounds (Yes: 56¢)
Paolo Bancher double-double (Yes: 35¢)
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The Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons open their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series. The Magic landed the East’s No. 8 playoff seed by beating the Charlotte Hornets in the play-in tournament. The Pistons are the East’s top playoff seed.
Detroit Pistons: 60-22 (East’s No. 1 playoff seed)
Odds
Spread: Detroit Pistons -8.5
Moneyline: Detroit Pistons -375 (75.5%) / Orlando Magic +290 (24.5%)
Over/Under: 219.5
Series schedule
Game 1: Sun., April 19, at Detroit (6:30 p.m., NBC) Game 2: Wed., April 22, at Detroit (7 p.m., ESPN) Game 3: Sat., April 25, at Orlando (1 p.m., Peacock) Game 4: Mon. April 27, at Orlando (time and network TBD) *Game 5: Wed., April 29, at Detroit (time and network TBD) *Game 6: Fri., May 1, at Orlando (time and network TBD) *Game 7: Sun., May 3, at Detroit (time and network TBD)
The Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder begin their first-round NBA playoff series on Sunday. The Suns beat the Golden State Warriors in the play-in tournament to secure the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed. The defending champion Thunder again finished the regular season with the league’s best record.
How to watch Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Game 1: Sun., April 19 at Oklahoma City (3:30 p.m., ABC) Game 2: Wed., April 22 at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., ESPN) Game 3: Sat., April 25 at Phoenix (3:30 p.m., NBC) Game 4: Mon., April 27 at Phoenix (TBD) *Game 5: Wed., April 29 at Oklahoma City (TBD) *Game 6: Fri., May 1 at Phoenix (TBD) *Game 7: Sun., May 3 at Oklahoma City (TBD)
The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics begin their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series. The teams split their four regular-season meetings. The 76ers will be missing starting center Joel Embiid, at least to begin the series.
How to watch Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers: 45-37 (East’s No. 7 playoff seed)
Boston Celtics: 56-26 (East’s No. 2 playoff seed)
Odds
Spread: Boston Celtics -12.5
Moneyline: Boston Celtics -800 (85.2%) / Philadelphia 76ers +550 (14.8%)
Over/Under: 213.5
Series schedule
Game 1: Sun., April 19 at Boston (1 p.m., ABC) Game 2: Tue., April 21 at Boston (7 p.m., Peacock) Game 3: Fri., April 24 at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Prime) Game 4: Sun., April 26 at Philadelphia (7 p.m., NBC) *Game 5: Tue., April 28 at Boston (TBD) *Game 6: Thu., April 30 at Philadelphia (TBD) *Game 7: Sat., May 2 at Boston (TBD)if necessary
Who will be crowned NBA champions for the 2025-26 season? That's the question basketball fans are looking forward to finding out as the playoffs officially got underway on Saturday, April 18.
But for those who can't wait until the Finals are over in mid-June, we have some clues.
USA TODAY Sports simulated each series of this year's playoff bracket 100 different times to come up with an idea of the most likely outcomes.
Starting with ESPN's Basketball Power Index figures, we built an engine with Microsoft Copilot that ran all 100 simulations at once. And here are the results.
Simulated NBA championship results
The top-seeded and defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder came out on top in the majority of our 100 simulations. But it wasn't a runaway by any means.
However, just four different teams were represented as champions in at least one simulation.
The final tally:
Oklahoma City Thunder: 55%
Detroit Pistons: 30%
Boston Celtics: 10%
San Antonio Spurs: 5%
Not surprisingly, those four teams make up the top seeds in each conference.
Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson were the supposed jewels of the 2023 NBA Draft. Three years later, they meet in their playoff debuts after very different paths to this point.
Wembanayma and the San Antonio Spurs look like title contenders for the next decade, while Henderson and the Portland Trail Blazers are quite possibly already stuck on the proverbial treadmill of mediocrity.
My Trail Blazers vs. Spurs predictions and these NBA picks trust Wembanyama to deliver in his postseason debut on Sunday, April 19.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs prediction
Trail Blazers vs Spurs best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 27.5 points (-115)
Welcome to the playoffs, Victor Wembanyama. Debuting as a No. 2 seed is already an impressive accomplishment from the young San Antonio Spurs superstar, not that he does not have grander ambitions in mind.
While the 7-foot-4 Frenchman is a difficult matchup for every team in the NBA, he should be particularly frustrating for the Portland Trail Blazers. At 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, Donovan Clingan is a massive human being, but he's not quite quick or agile enough to defend Wembanyama outside the paint.
Unfortunately for us, Wembanyama never actually played against the Trail Blazers this season, missing all three of those games for various reasons, but this presumption still holds up to scrutiny.
He should get a pile of open looks from deep in this matchup, and shooting 34.9% this season from beyond the arc justifies every one of those attempts.
Wembanyama started showing postseason form before the regular season ended, clearing this prop in four of his final five games. In fact, he scored 40+ points in three of those.
The playoffs may need to brace for Victor Wembanyama.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs same-game parlay
Clingan has all the looks of a 15-year contributor in the NBA. He may never be All-NBA, but he is a legitimate player. Yet, his playoff debut may be one to forget simply because of Victor Wembanyama’s two-way influence.
Perhaps Wembanyama’s focus will wane in this first round, but that should not come on either end of the court in Game 1.
Portland's best hope of remaining competitive in both this series and particularly this Game 1 is to slow down the pace. Portland has been off since Tuesday’s win in the Play-In Tournament, but it still had to get to San Antonio and prep for the Spurs.
With the clear talent disadvantage, taking some air out of the ball will increase the variance and give Portland at least a puncher’s chance.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs SGP
Victor Wembanyama Over 27.5 Points
Trail Blazers +11
Under 221
Trail Blazers vs Spurs odds for Game 1
Spread: Trail Blazers +11 | Spurs -11
Moneyline: Trail Blazers +450 | Spurs -600
Over/Under: Over 221 | Under 221
Trail Blazers vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Trail Blazers have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 6.3 points even when including the two ATS losses. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Spurs.
How to watch Trail Blazers vs Spurs Game 1
Location
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Date
Sunday, April 19, 2026
Tip-off
9:00 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Trail Blazers vs Spurs latest injuries
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The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics kick off their Round 1 battle at TD Garden this afternoon, and there is a flurry of NBA player prop projections to take advantage of.
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76ers Game 1 computer picks
Andre Drummond Over 6.5 points (-105)
Projection: 8.44 points
With Embiid sidelined, Andre Drummond will have his number called in this series, and he's averaged 12 points per game over his last three games and scored 14 and 10 in his last two against Boston.
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Adem Bona Over 3.5 points (+100)
Projection: 4.53 points
Adem Bona averaged 5.7 points per game in his last six regular-season games, including two games of 10 and 13. This is a low bar to clear.
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VJ Edgecombe Over 14.5 points (-115)
Projection: 16.99 points
VJ Edgecombe averaged 16 points per game as a rookie and went Over this number in three of his last four, including 19 against the Magic in the 7/8 Play-In game.
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Celtics Game 1 computer picks
Derrick White Over 4.5 assists (+135)
Projection: 5.54 assists
Derrick White averaged 5.4 assists per game this season and logged eight and seven assists in his last two games against the Sixers.
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Sam Hauser Over 6.5 points (-133)
Projection: 9.12 points
Sam Hauser's confidence will be sky-high entering the playoffs after he finished the regular season by scoring 24 points against the Pelicans and shooting 8-for-12 from deep.
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Derrick White Over 13.5 points
Projection: 16.28 points
White's shooting percentage came back up to 47.8% in April after three straight months of below 40% shooting. He also averaged 19.8 points per game against Philly this season and cleared this total in all four games.
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How to watch 76ers vs Celtics Game 1
Location
TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date
Sunday, April 19, 2026
Tip-off
1:00 p.m. ET
TV
ABC
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The 2026 NBA Playoffs open in San Antonio with a fascinating contrast in styles as the No. 2 seed Spurs host the No. 7 seed Portland Trail Blazers on NBC and Peacock. The matchup marks the postseason return of playoff basketball to Texas for the first time in seven years. The Spurs (62-20) have been one of the league's dominant forces since February, led by the incredible all-around play of third-year superstar Victor Wembanyama, who averaged 25 points and 3.1 blocks this season. Its been a beat as well for Portland (42-40) since they have seen the postseason. This is the Blazers’ first playoff appearance and in fact, first winning season since the 2020-21 campaign. The Trail Blazers secured the seventh seed with a 114-110 win at Phoenix in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Led by Deni Avdija (24.2 ppg and 6.7 apg) Portland is looking to become just the 4th team to win a playoff series after advancing through the Play-In Tournament since it was adopted in its current format in 2021.
San Antonio won the regular season series, 2-1, including a 112-101 home win on April 8. Wembanyama did not play in any of the Spurs’ 3 games against Portland. It is the only team he did not face this season.
This matchup also pits former high-profile college teammates against each other as UConn Huskies’ Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle get set to battle. Each are major factors on the Blazers and Spurs respectively. Clingan finished the regular season as the NBA’s leading offensive rebounder (4.5 OREB/gm) and 3rd in the NBA in overall rebounding (11.6 rpg). He also led the NBA in total rebounds (892) and total offensive rebounds (a franchise-record 347). Castle followed up his 2024-25 Rookie of the Year campaign with improvements across the board in points and rebounds as well as a team-leading 7.4 assists per game.
This series may well come down to which team controls the boards. Behind Clingan’s NBA-leading 4.5 offensive rebounds per game, the Trail Blazers were second in the NBA in offensive rebounding (14.1 OREB/gm) and led the NBA in second chance points (18.4 per game) during the regular season. Conversely, thanks in large part to Wembanyama’s 9.5 defensive rebounds per game (second in the NBA, behind only Nikola Jokic’s 9.9/gm), the Spurs led the NBA in defensive rebounds per game (35.6) and allowed the 4th-fewest 2nd chance points in the NBA (13.7 per gm). The breakdown of this matchup may well be that simple.
This will be the fifth playoff meeting between San Antonio and Portland but the first since 2014. The Spurs have won the most recent three series.
Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch Live: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Date: Sunday, April 19, 2026
Time: 9PM EST
Site: Frost Bank Center
City: San Antonio, TX
Network/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Game Odds: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
The latest odds as of Sunday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Portland Trail Blazers (+400), San Antonio Spurs (-535)
Spread: Spurs -10.5
Total: 221.5 points
This game opened Spurs -10.5 with the Game Total set at 222.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Portland Trail Blazers
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Scoot Henderson
C Donovan Clingan
SF Toumani Camara
PF Deni Avdija
San Antonio Spurs
G Stephon Castle
PG De’Aaron Fox
G Devin Vassell
SF Julian Champagnie
PF Victor Wembanyama
Injury Report: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard (Achilles) has been declared OUT of Sunday’s game
San Antonio Spurs
Jordan McLaughlin (ankle) has been declared OUT of Sunday’s game
David Jones Garcia (ankle) has been declared OUT of Sunday’s game
Important stats, trends and insights: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
The Spurs are 32-8 at home this season
The Blazers are 19-23 on the road this season
The Spurs are 45-36-2 ATS this season
Portland is 45-38 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 43 of the Trail Blazers’ 83 games this season (43-40)
The OVER has cashed in 36 of the Spurs’ 83 games this season (36-47)
Victor Wembanyama scored 30 points with 10 blocks the last time he faced Portland (December 2024)
Trail Blazers coach Tiago Splitter spent 5 of his 7 NBA seasons as a player with San Antonio (2010-15) and was a member of the Spurs’ most recent NBA title-winning team in 2014
Rotoworld Best Bet
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700. Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s Trail Blazers and Spurs’ game:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Blazers +10.5 ATS
Total: Rotoworld Bet is Recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 221.5
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
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Magic Game 1 computer picks
Franz Wagner Under 17.5 points (-135)
Projection: 15.86 points
This is a matchup fade. Franz Wagner relies on rhythm and driving lanes, and those are harder to come by in a playoff opener against a physical defense. If he’s forced into more contested halfcourt looks, the efficiency drops, and so does the path to 18+.
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Wendell Carter Jr. Over 0.5 threes (-110)
Projection: 0.92 threes
You only need one, and the role supports it. Wendell Carter Jr. spaces the floor in this offense, especially when defenses collapse on Banchero. If he’s playing starter minutes, he’s getting multiple clean looks from deep. This is more about opportunity than volume.
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Paolo Banchero Under 22.5 points (+100)
Projection: 21.88 points
This is where playoff basketball tightens up. Paolo Banchero will get his touches, but the Pistons can load up defensively and make him work through contact on every possession. Unless he’s living at the line, this number is a bit inflated for a Game 1 environment.
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Pistons Game 1 computer picks
Jalen Duren Under 20.5 points (-110)
Projection: 16.90 points
This line is mispriced for his role. Jalen Duren isn’t a primary scorer. He feeds off lobs, putbacks, and easy looks. In a slower game with fewer transition chances, those opportunities shrink. Asking him to clear 20 requires an outlier performance.
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Isaiah Stewart Over 6.5 points (-115)
Projection: 9.01 points
Low line, steady role. Isaiah Stewart doesn’t need volume to clear this, just minutes and a couple of made shots. In a physical matchup, he’s going to be involved, whether it’s second-chance points or spot-up looks. This is one of the cleaner numbers on the board.
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Cade Cunningham Under 27.5 points (-112)
Projection:24.99 points
This is a ceiling fade. Cade Cunningham will have the ball, but playoff defenses are built to force it out of his hands late in possessions. If the Magic send help and make others beat them, his scoring becomes more volatile. You’re betting on resistance, not lack of usage.
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How to watch Magic vs Pistons Game 1
Location
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Date
Sunday, April 19, 2026
Tip-off
6:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Apr 18, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) is guarded by Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (7) during the first quarter of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
The Atlanta Hawks fought until the final whistle but ultimately didn’t do enough to pull out a victory in game one of their first round series against the New York Knicks, losing on Saturday night by a final score of 113-102.
How It Happened
Jalen Brunson poured in 19 points in the first quarter alone and finished with 28 points to lead all scorers. Karl-Anthony Towns was vital down the stretch for New York and finished with 25 points to go along with eight boards and three blocks.
Meanwhile for Atlanta, CJ McCollum scored a team-high 26 points on 11-for-20 shooting from the floor (4-for-9 from three), although he did commit a team-high 5 turnovers as well. Jalen Johnson tallied 23 points, seven rebounds and three assists, but shot 8-for-19 from the field including just 4-for-10 in the paint. Dyson Daniels had a tough time scoring the ball but was excellent everywhere else, finishing with nine rebounds, 11 assists, three steals and four points. Onyeka Okongwu had 19 points and shot 4-for-6 from downtown.
This one was a tale of two halves. Atlanta shot the ball well in the first half, and only trailed by two at the break. New York had a slight edge on the boards, but the Hawks had a slight edge in the turnover battle, and had to be feeling good about holding serve in their first playoff half on the road at MSG.
Then the third quarter happened. Atlanta’s offense went ice cold, scoring just 19 points on a miserable 39.8% true shooting clip while coughing the ball up five times. While New York didn’t shoot it spectacularly in the third (7-for-16 from the floor, 2-for-4 from three), they were a +9 at the free-throw stripe, which was a significant difference between the two teams in the period.
With the Hawks trailing by nine at the start of the final frame, it was imperative for them to cut into the lead at the start of the quarter against New York’s bench lineup, but two big threes from Miles McBride kept the Knicks bench afloat, before Towns sparked a 15-3 run to stretch New York’s lead to 19 with 4:36 to play.
Atlanta didn’t go down without a fight, responding with an 11-0 run of their own to cut the lead to eight with 1:39 left. But it was too little, too late, with the Knicks seeing out the game at the free throw line. As a result, the Hawks now face a 1-0 series deficit heading into Monday’s game two.
Here are a few things that stood out from game one.
New York Flips the Script in Transition
In case you aren’t familiar with this year’s Atlanta Hawks, this is a team that likes to play fast and beat you in transition, ranking fifth in pace and second in transition efficiency (per cleaningtheglass) during the regular season. However, in game one, it was New York who won the fastbreak points battle, outscoring Atlanta 22-13 in this area – an uncharacteristic showing for the Hawks, and a trend that cannot continue if they are to pull off a first-round upset.
Said Quin Snyder after the game:
“The formula for us, and our identity has been to run and move the ball. It’s not that we didn’t do that, but we need to do more of it. We’re obviously playing a really good team, and it’s [only] game one. So you take it, you watch it, and we’ll see some of the things more specifically that we need to better.”
New York is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league but only grabbed six offensive rebounds last night. I believe part of the reason that number was so low* was because they were prioritizing transition defense over the offensive glass, and after seeing how game one played out, it’s hard to argue with this strategy from Mike Brown.
*in addition to Atlanta’s ‘hack-a-Mitch’ strategy paying off, with Robinson playing just 5:00 and shooting 1-for-4 from the free-throw line in the second half
Another thing that hurt Atlanta is that they only forced 11 Knicks turnovers last night – well below their regular-season average – which limited their opportunities to get out and run in transition. Atlanta ranked sixth in opponent turnover rate (15.6%) and 3rd in points off turnovers (20.7) during the regular season and will need to play up to that standard in the postseason, especially if they’re having a difficult time generating transition opportunities off of New York’s misses.
Said CJ McCollum after the game:
“It’s just about getting stops. When we get stops, we’re very hard to guard, we can get threes, layups, dunks, ball moves a little bit better. So, [we have to] do a better job defensively. We gave up 112 [points], lots of free throws, Brunson had 19 in the first quarter, so there’s things we can tighten up collectively. But it starts with being better defensively for longer periods of time, and that’ll help our offense too.”
I’d expect Atlanta to be more aggressive on defense and take the pace up a notch on Monday night.
Outside Shooting Sinks Atlanta in the Second Half
The Hawks are a good outside shooting team, ranking eighth in three-point percentage (37.4%) since the All-Star break, but last night, after an 8-for-16 showing from deep in the first half, they shot just 6-for-21 (28.6%) in the second half – including a stretch from the 8:42 mark of the third quarter to the 8:28 mark of the fourth where they went 0-for-9.
Despite Atlanta’s impressive regular season three-point percentage, they have been prone to cold spells and interestingly enough, were a bottom 10 three-point shooting team in third quarters this season. Needless to say, they’ll need to put it together for all four quarters in order to win in the postseason, as last night was evidence of just how detrimental a cold shooting spell can be.
Said McCollum after the game:
“It’s a make or miss league, when [shots] go down everything is great and you’re flowing, and when you miss ‘em, it can kind’ve snowball and create runs so it’s just about knocking down shots. I had some open looks I missed in the second half. But overall, I think we’ll take the quality of looks we got, we’ll generate better looks, we’ll generate more looks and we’ll have more possessions to score with less turnovers.”
Dyson Daniels Does It All (But Score)
On a positive note, though he only finished with four points on 2-for-7 shooting, I thought last night was the quintessential Dyson Daniels game – aside from the fact that it ended in a defeat. Daniels led the team in rebounds (9), assists (11), screen assists (6), steals (3), and deflections (7) and was simply just a ball of energy on the court. He spent time hounding Jalen Brunson and even picked up KAT for a few possessions towards the end of the game. Offensively, his transition playmaking prowess was on full display, and he did a good job operating as a ‘DHO’ hub in the halfcourt.
Daniels has gotten a lot of flack for his poor outside shooting this season, but last night was a great example of how valuable of a player he is – even without a jumpshot.
‘NAW’t His Best
On a less positive note, MIP candidate Nickeil Alexander-Walker had a rough shooting night in his Hawks playoff debut, finishing with 17 points on 7-for-16 shooting (3-for-8 from three) against New York. While you might be thinking, “well, that’s not that bad”, keep in mind that over the last 24 games of the regular season, Alexander-Walker averaged 22.5 points on a ridiculous 52.2% shooting clip from the floor and 46% from three (7.9 attempts per game). Call me spoiled, but I had gotten used to that version of NAW, and the Hawks are going to need him to show up if they want a shot at advancing past the first round.
One thing to note is that NAW has been one of the league’s most efficient transition scorers this season (shameless plug), so if Atlanta can turn up the defensive aggression, play with more pace and generate some more transition opportunities going forwards, perhaps they can get him some more comfortable looks, and unlock the best version of him in the playoffs.
Looking Ahead to Game 2…
Game two of Hawks Knicks is on Monday at 8 PM EST on Peacock. While the game one result is obviously disappointing, it was hardly unexpected, with New York favored by 5.5 points before tip-off. The Hawks have Sunday to regroup, analyze the film and prepare to come out firing in game two.
On what he and the team need to improve upon in game two, CJ McCollum said:
“Turnovers, I had five turnovers, there’s things that we can do better from a spacing standpoint. Moving the ball a bit more, being more intentional with ball and player movement, but I have to watch the film… sometimes it’s just missing shots, transition, but I have to watch the film.”
“I don’t think there’s anything that we didn’t expect. It’s a hostile environment, great fans, great arena. This is a very good team, so you knew they were going to come out with energy and be aggressive and [be] very intentional with their player movement and ball movement. I think it’s all about responding, so I look forward to responding on Monday.”
Jalen Johnson echoed that sentiment, saying:
“It’s the first game, obviously there’s a ton of room for improvement. But I gotta go back and watch film. See other ways I can continue to be effective, continue to get my teammates involved. Yeah, just let the game come to me, not try to force anything, continue to trust my teammates… I feel like it was solid, and like CJ said, we’ll be ready for Monday.”
There’s still a lot of basketball left to be played in this series – but Atlanta will need a response on Monday night.
The Boston Celtics kick off another playoff run against the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers, and our 76ers vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks expect Boston to cruise to victory in Game 1 this afternoon.
In the last three games the Philadelphia 76ers played in Boston without the big man, they were outscored by 17.3 points per game. The Boston Celtics sport a +8.3 net rating at home this season, and with the team close to full strength, I’ll back them to win this one by 13+.
Our prediction: Celtics to win
Without Embiid, Philly’s offensive rating dipped from 118.5 to 112.9, good for eighth-worst. Philly will have trouble scoring, and I expect Boston to cruise.
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76ers vs Celtics spread and total at prediction markets
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Celtics -13.5
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54¢ (-117)
Over 212.5 points
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48¢ (+108)
Our predictions:Celtics -13.5 — Yes and Over 212.5 points — No
No team hit the Under at a higher percentage than the Celtics at 63.4%. The C’s kept the score low throughout the season thanks to a Bottom-5 pace and Top-5 defense.
Other 76ers vs Celtics prediction markets available
Jayson Tatum 25+ points (Yes: 54¢)
Tyrese Maxey 30+ points (Yes: 36¢)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 18: Luke Kennard #10 of the Los Angeles Lakers shoots over the defense of Alperen Sengun #28 of the Houston Rockets during the first half of Game One of the First Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena on April 18, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In Saturday’s Brotherhood Playoff Action, Tyrese Proctor’s Cleveland Cavaliers beat Toronto, featuring RJ Barrett and Brandon Ingram, 126-113. Denver, with Tyus Jones, knocked off the Timberwolves, 116-105. The Hawks, coached by Quin Snyder and featuring Jalen Johnson, took down New York, 113-102. The Los Angeles Lakers, coached by JJ Redick and starring Luke Kennard, grounded the Rockets, 107-98.
Barrett scored 24 points, while Ingram had 17 for the Raptors, while Proctor got a DNP (did not play).
Tyus Jones also got a DNP for Denver.
Johnson got 23 points and 7 rebounds in Atlanta’s loss to the Knicks.
And while the Lakers are without the injured Luka Doncic, Kennard filled in well, hitting for 27 points on 9-13/5-5 from the floor, along with 4 rebounds and three assists.
That was Kennard’s career playoff high, incidentally.
On Sunday, Jayson Tatum and Boston take on Philadelphia, Jared McCain and OKC play Phoenix, with Grayson Allen, Mark Williams, and Khaman Maluach, while Orlando, featuring Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter, rumble with Trajan Langdon’s Detroit Pistons.
1984 was the first season the NBA implemented the 16-team playoff system, divided by the Eastern and Western Conferences. Since 1984, there have only been six 8-seeds to upset a 1-seed in the playoffs.
The first team to ever do it was the 1994 Denver Nuggets, who defeated the Seattle SuperSonics 3–2 after coming back from down 2-0. The next team to do it was the 1999 New York Knicks in a lockout-shortened season against the Miami Heat in a 3-2 series win. That Knicks team went on to make the NBA Finals. Then in 2007, the ‘We Believe Warriors’ defeated the Dallas Mavericks and MVP winner Dirk Nowitzki 4-2. A few years later, the Memphis Grizzlies upset the Spurs 4-2 in 2011, and the Philadelphia 76ers defeated the 1-seed Chicago Bulls 4-2, who lost their MVP, Derrick Rose, in game one of that series. And the last team to do it? The 2023 Miami Heat, who defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 with Giannis Antetokounmpo in and out of the lineup that series. That Heat team also made the NBA Finals.
So what’s been the magic recipe historically?
For the 76ers and Bulls, it was injury luck. The Grizzlies and Warriors played a style of basketball that their counterparts could not match up against. The Grizzlies completely out-physicaled the Spurs, and the Warriors’ small-ball exposed a major flaw in the Mavericks’ unathletic roster. The Knicks and Nuggets got to play a five-game series, and both had exceptional defenses that stifled the Heat and Supersonics.
Historically, 8-seeds are 6-of-84 in opportunities against 1-seeds. So that gives the Suns a 7.1% chance to beat the Thunder, which is right on the money with how oddsmakers view this series. The Suns are right around +1300 to win the series. By no means is this article saying that the Suns will win the series, but rather the historical context of what kind of company they can be in if they do, and just how much of a shock it would be if they did. Plus, if you want to look on the bright side, if the Suns do beat the Thunder, they have a 33% chance at making the Finals!
So what has to go right for Phoenix to earn a series win over Oklahoma City?
Injury luck, obviously. In two weeks from now, if Phoenix has done the impossible and is moving on to the second round, it will more than likely be due to Oklahoma City having poor injury luck. Phoenix also needs the inverse; Grayson Allen and Mark Williams must play in order for them to win. There’s not a whole lot more to break down than that, and this Oklahoma City team is so talented it might take more than one injury for Phoenix to have a chance.
Now lets go to the basketball scenarios, which are way more fun to write about. 3-point shooting and taking care of the ball are the two keys for the Suns to have a shot against the Thunder. The Thunder are elite defensively with an unending roster of elite defenders perfectly suited to guarding Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of the Suns roster. The Suns have to limit their turnovers while the Thunder turn it over like hotcakes. The Suns also need to take and make more threes than the Thunder. Winning the possession battle and 3-point battle has been the Suns’ recipe for success all season, and they will need to do it four times in four wins if they want to get a series win over the Thunder. The Suns have to shoot as many threes as possible, hope that they get a high number of makes, and if not, rebound those long misses and take some more triples.
The other ingredient to a historic series upset is generational performances or clutch play-making from the superstar player or players. Jimmy Butler reached extraordinary levels in the Heat’s recent 4-1 series win against the Bucks by making incredible shots in improbable comebacks. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol dominated the Spurs’ frontline inside in the Grizzlies series win over the Spurs, and Dikembe Mutombo blocked the Supersonics in the final seconds, capped off by his iconic celebration.
The Suns will need elite shotmaking from Booker, Green, and Brooks, plus plenty of defensive heroism from everyone on the roster. Slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the Suns’ top priority, and he is the game’s best closer. It will be a challenge to match him bucket for bucket in the final minutes of games, but it is something the Suns will have to do.
So how does this team get it done?
The Suns have to win in six games or fewer, even if there are injuries. Playing the Thunder in Oklahoma City in a game seven is a daunting task. If the Suns win this series, it is because they won one of the first two games on the road, then hold the Thunder at bay to win in six games. Right now, just winning one game in the series would feel like an accomplishment for the Suns. Even the most optimistic Suns fans cannot consciously believe that this team will win this series. But as long as the 15 players in the locker room and the coaching staff believe they have a chance to win, I will be watching every minute.
If the Suns are going to win this series, here is the path it takes to get there:
Game 1 – Suns win in the final seconds of a close game.
Game 2 – Suns lose, and honestly, the more the Thunder lay it on, the better.
Game 3 – Suns get ridiculously hot from behind the line and win a game no one saw coming
Game 4 – Suns mount a furious fourth-quarter comeback and steal a win in an ugly rock fight game that ends in the high 80’s
Suns fall short, and Gilgeous-Alexander has his 40-point explosion
Game 5 – Suns fall short and Gilgeous-Alexander has his 40-point explosion
Game 6 – Suns win a game where Booker, Green, and Brooks score 80+ points, and a Suns role player hits a game-winning 3-point shot
The science behind this scenario is that every single team since the Warriors in 2007 has won game 1 of the series (except Philadelphia because of the Rose injury), and in the six series combined, the 8-seeds are a combined 14-1 at home. To upset a 1-seed, the path is clear: win the first game, and then win at home.
The Suns do have a few things going their way
They have nothing to lose, and the Thunder have all the pressure on them to win. The Suns are -1 in point differential this season against the Thunder with Booker in the lineup and are 1-1 in those games. The Suns are 2-3 against the Thunder in five games, which is as familiar as you can get with one team in the regular season. Even with all those reasons to be positive, the Suns have 7% chance to win this series, but with every run the Suns make, every loose ball they collect, every offensive rebound they grab, that number can grow and grow until it becomes a series.
Someone has to become the lucky number seven team to upset a 1-seed, so why not this Phoenix Suns team?
76ers
Celtics
Magic
Pistons
