As the World Baseball Classic nears, the American team received a pep talk from arguably the greatest Team USA athlete in history: swimmer Michael Phelps.
Phelps reportedly spoke at a team dinner Monday night before attending Tuesday's exhibition win over the San Francisco Giants in Scottsdale, Arizona, near Phelps' home in Paradise Valley.
“He was intense,” U.S. manager Mark DeRosa said, according to MLB.com. “I thought it was an awesome speech. Just kind of his mindset. Second place is not going to get it done. That was kind of his message to the guys. Kind of feeding off each other and coming together as a team.”
This World Baseball Classic, which runs from Thursday through the March 17 final in Miami, has Olympic ramifications.
The top two finishing teams from North and South America qualify for the 2028 Los Angeles Games, not including the U.S., which has an automatic spot as host nation.
The Classic could also be a preview of the Olympic competition. It's possible that big leaguers could take part in the Games for the first time in 2028 should MLB owners and players come to an agreement.
Baseball is not guaranteed to be on the Olympic program after 2028, so Los Angeles could be the only opportunity for any players to experience what Phelps did 23 times in his career.
"It's the one thing I miss the most about being retired, right, not being able to stand on top of the medal podium with a gold medal around your neck while listening to your national anthem," Phelps told Fox Sports. "For me, when I was able to wear the stars and stripes, it was a massive honor. I know these guys are going to represent us well and go out there, have some fun, number one, but get the W, too."
Hamilton didn’t throw away his sho— that joke is over a decade old now. | Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images
Last week, I wrote about the two Twins players whose MLB careers lasted one game. (And thanks to BH-Baseball for sharing, in a comment below the article, about Senators one-game, one-legged pitcher Bert Shepard.) If this were earlier in the offseason, I’d make this a series (and I still might, just next offseason); as it is, there’s another short-tenured player who came to mind that I’d like to recollect.
Through a middling 2022 season, the Twins got minimal offense from the catching position, with Gary Sánchez their primary backstop. On July 15, looking for help at that spot, they called up Caleb Hamilton from St. Paul. A 27-year-old career minor leaguer, Hamilton had been a 23rd-round pick of the Twins six years before; now, wearing #90 (yes, that’s the main reason I remember him), he debuted for the big club… and didn’t hit at all. Before being optioned back to the Saints on August 3, Hamilton appeared in just three games with Minnesota, coming to the plate six times without a hit, including four strikeouts.
But his time in the majors had yet to finish. The Twins brought him back up on August 23, and he remained with the team for the rest of the season, appearing in 19 more games, largely as a late-inning replacement. However, he started four games, and it is the third of those we come to.
The warm, sunny afternoon of September 25 saw the Los Angeles Angels taking on the Twins in the finale of a three-game series at Target Field. Hamilton batted ninth, catching for Dylan Bundy, and as soon as I mention Bundy, you know the game didn’t go well. Bundy lasted 3.1 innings and gave up five runs, including a homer to Mike Trout; Ronny Henriquez followed Bundy and kept the Angels’ tally at five, but the Twins, who had tacked on two early runs, could not narrow the deficit.
Until the bottom of the eighth.
With José Quijada on the hill for the visitors, Hamilton was due up as the third batter of the inning. Quijada struck out Jermaine Palacios and Jake Cave, but on the first pitch to Hamilton…
Unfortunately, neither the game nor Hamilton’s career would feature further highlights.
Trevor Megill took the mound for Minnesota in the ninth and gave up five runs, turning a close game into a blowout 10-3 loss. And Hamilton made five more appearances for the Twins in ‘22 without a hit; he was waived and claimed by the Red Sox, for whom he appeared in four games the next season. After going hitless with Boston, Hamilton was granted free agency after 2023. He signed with the Angels the following season but never made the majors, and his playing career ended after ‘24. Hamilton did join the High-A (NYY) Hudson Valley Renegades as a defensive coach for ‘25, but the Renegades’ website no longer lists him as a coach this season, and I could not determine where or if he is coaching.
His home run on September 25, 2022, was the only hit of his career. But he made the most of that one hit, giving himself, his teammates, and everyone in attendance a moment to remember in an otherwise forgettable Twins season.
Welcome back to A Pod of Their Own, an all-women led Home Run Applesauce podcast where we talk all things Mets, social justice issues in baseball, and normalize female voices in the sports podcasting space.
This week, we begin by discussing some notes out of Mets camp, including Ryan Lambert’s unhinged energy (complimentary), Nolan McLean and Freddy Peralta’s strong starts, the battle for the right field job, and more.
Next, we choose our Dudes for 2026—underrated players who we think may make a big contribution to the Mets this season.
Finally, we wrap things up with Walk-off Wins, where each of us talks about what’s making us happy this week, baseball-related or otherwise.
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DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 19: Jurickson Profar #7 of the Atlanta Braves looks on against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on September 19, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images) | Jurickson Profar - Getty Images
Fans of the San Diego Padres got their first glimpse of what Nick Castellanos could be if he breaks camp as a part of the big-league roster. Castellanos went 2-for-3 in San Diego’s 4-3 win over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday and that included a double and a two-run home run off the bat of Castellanos. He was signed with the expectation that he would provide slug on offense and compete for time at first base and designated hitter. Castellanos is not a refined first baseman by any means, but he has not looked lost at the position as he tries to get used to having his feet back in the dirt after years in the outfield. If he can do what he did against the White Sox and continue to improve defensively, he could be this year’s Gavin Sheets for the Padres.
Padres News:
The lineup construction under former manager Mike Shildt rarely changed. Fernando Tatis Jr. was the leadoff batter followed by Luis Arraez. Tatis and Arraez, when healthy and playing, were cemented into the top two spots. Under new manager Craig Stammen, it appears their will be some flexibility at the top of the lineup, but who is most often leading off for the Padres is unknown.
The Padres have a number of players vying for the fifth spot in the pitching rotation and while one may stand out among the rest, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune says San Diego will need a combination of pitchers to fill the role of the fifth starter.
Logan Gillaspie has been pitching well and could make the decision for Stammen and pitching coach Ruben Niebla about who will make up their bullpen very difficult. San Diego is expected to have one of the top if not the top bullpen in MLB this season so breaking in could be a challenge for Gillaspie. Like the bullpen, the Padres’ starting rotation has yet to be decided and while he may not be ready for Opening Day, Griffin Canning is working to get back as soon as possible to add his name to the list of contenders.
Tom Krasovic of the San Deigo Union-Tribune looks at the path Walker Buehler took to land him in San Diego. The World Series-winning right-hander was once thought to be a draft pick of the Padres but instead he was passed and he enrolled at Vanderbilt. After three years in college he was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers and the rest is history.
Baseball News:
Jurickson Profar is facing a 162-game suspension after a recent positive test for a substance that is banned by MLB.
The Cleveland Guardians never look great when the season starts and somehow, they manage to win. The Detroit Tigers have loaded up on pitching to try to squeeze a postseason year out of Tarik Skubal’s walk year. The White Sox are better. The Royals stood (mostly) pat. And the Twins, yikes.
Chicago White Sox
Key departures: Luis Robert Jr., Dominic Fletcher, Michael A. Taylor, Martin Perez, Cam Booser, Mike Tauchman, Bryan Hudson, Miguel Castro
Key arrivals: Anthony Kay, Oliver Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Drew Romo, Tyson Miller, Luisangel Acuña, Jordan Hicks, Seranthony Dominguez, Austin Hays, Erick Fedde
The White Sox were a much better team in every way in 2025 compared to their disastrous 121-loss season in 2024. They won 20 more games — that’s good! They inaugurated a new manager, Will Venable, who is widely respected around the game.
This year they’ve finally moved on from Luis Robert Jr., who had a couple of disappointing years after looking like a true superstar early in this decade.
They signed Japanese star Munetaka Murakami, who’s already had a positive impact on the team. Colson Montgomery, a top prospect who struggled in the minors, hit 21 home runs in just 71 games. Kyle Teel looks like the real deal behind the plate.
The rotation is still a bit iffy. They acquired Jordan Hicks, who could start or relieve, and former Phillie Seranthony Dominguez will close.
They’re probably not a contender — yet — but they could easily improve another 10-15 wins this year.
Key departures: Jakob Junis, Will Brennan, Sam Hentges, Jhonkensy Noel
Key arrivals: Colin Holderman, Shawn Armstrong, Codi Heuer, Carter Kieboom, Ben Lively, Rhys Hoskins
Every year, people say the Guardians will fade or fall off and every year, they go on a run and make the postseason.
This year should be no different. The Guards have a solid, if unspectacular, rotation and good bullpen. They signed homegrown superstar José Ramirez to a contract that will have him retire in Cleveland, likely on his way to Cooperstown. Ramirez is one of the most underappreciated superstars in today’s game — if he were playing in New York or Los Angeles he’d have already had tons of media attention.
Another unappreciated Guardian is outfielder Steven Kwan, whose numbers are solid if unspectacular, but who seems to always find ways to beat you.
And they might have made a really good under-the-radar signing in Rhys Hoskins.
At Cleveland: April 3-4-5 (includes the Guardians’ home opener on April 3)
Key departures: Tommy Kahnle, Rafael Montero, Chris Paddack, Paul Sewald, Randy Dobnak, Kevin Newman, Alex Lange, Justyn-Henry Malloy
Key arrivals: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Scott Effross, Kenley Jansen, Phil Bickford, Austin Slater, Colin Poche
The Tigers lost their arbitration hearing with Tarik Skubal, all but assuring that this is Skubal’s last year in Detroit — that, and their signing of Framber Valdez to a three-year deal for $115 million.
Other than the signing of Justin Verlander, which should give feel-good vibes if not performance, the Tigers basically are running back the same team that ran out to a huge division lead last year — they had a 14-game lead on July 8 — before blowing it and finishing second to the Guardians, who they dispatched in a wild card series before they lost to the Mariners in a division series.
Now read that again. The Tigers were 59-34 after defeating the Rays on July 8 and had that 14-game lead. They went 28-41 after that — the only teams worse were the Rays, Angels, Twins and Rockies. Yikes.
Detroit will have to guard against that sort of slippage again.
Key departures: Adam Frazier, Hunter Harvey, Mike Yastrzemski, Randal Grichuk, Kyle Wright, MJ Melendez, Angel Zerpa, Jonathan Bowlan
Key arrivals: Mason Black, Alex Lange, Isaac Collins, Nick Mears, Kevin Newman, Abraham Toro, Matt Strahm, Jorge Alfaro, Hector Neris, Aaron Sanchez, Eli Morgan, Elias Diaz
The Royals made the postseason in 2024 on a 30-game improvement from 2023. They took a bit of a step back last year, but still finished over .500, barely, at 82-80.
They are running back most of the same guys this year. They have a solid rotation and decent bullpen, and two young hitters — Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino — who should continue to improve.
Of course, the offense is anchored by superstar Bobby Witt Jr., whose very good year in 2025 was just a smidge below his spectacular 2024. This is his age-26 season and I’d expect another good-to-great year.
Salvador Perez returns for his 15th year in a Royals uniform. Since the retirement of George Brett, Perez has become the face of the franchise. He doesn’t catch that much anymore — just 89 games started behind the plate last year — but even solid production for the next couple years could get him Hall of Fame consideration.
Key departures: Jonah Bride, Genesis Cabrera, Thomas Hatch, Jose Miranda, Ryan Fitzgerald, Edouard Julien
Key arrivals: Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, Taylor Rogers, Jackson Kowar, Eduardo Salazar, Gio Urshela, Liam Hendriks, Julian Merryweather, Andrew Chafin
The Twins insist they’re competing this year.
Not with this roster they’re not. They had arguably a bigger selloff last summer than the Cubs did in 2021. And the results showed on the field — the Twins were 39-66 after June 1. Only the Rockies were worse, and not much worse (34-70).
To what was left, the Twins added… well, you can see above, a few retreads and miscellaneous waiver-wire guys. Their payroll ranks 24th of the 30 teams.
The Twins franchise has lost 100 games in a season just twice since 1955 — 102 losses in 1982 and 103 in 2016.
It says here that the 2026 Twins should join that list.
SARASOTA, FL - FEBRUARY 20: Coby Mayo (16) of the Baltimore Orioles fields his position during a spring training game against the New York Yankees on February 20, 2026 at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
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Plan A for the Orioles infield went out the window as soon as Jackson Holliday suffered a broken hamate bone. The backup plan for the infield followed not long after once Jordan Westburg’s sore oblique turned into “he has a partially torn UCL.” With two expected starters likely out for at least the first month of the season, in Westburg’s case potentially the whole season, we know that the team is going to have to get creative.
One part of that looks like it is going to be Coby Mayo taking a lot of the playing time at third base. This is the experiment the Orioles are running here in spring training and it sure seems to be a “get him as much practice as possible for the regular season” kind of thing rather than “we’re still not sure if we want to do this.” In about three weeks, we’re going to start getting an idea of whether this is an acceptable experiment for the Orioles chances of fielding as winning a team as they possibly can.
How do you feel about the potential for Mayo as a regular third baseman for at least April?
In the scouting world, there have always been doubts about whether Mayo could handle third base at the MLB level, because it’s tough for 6’5” guys to react on the hot corner. It is something of a desperate plan that’s brought the Orioles to this point for 2026… well, that and the fact that Mayo’s next most-likely home of first base was filled up by the long-term, big-money signing of Pete Alonso.
JUPITER, FL - FEBRUARY 12: Foster Griffin #22 of the Washington Nationals pitches in the bullpen during Spring Training workout day at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on Thursday, February 12, 2026 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Lucas Casel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The first free agent signing Paul Toboni made was a bit of a mysterious one. He gave LHP Foster Griffin a 1-year $5.5 million deal after three excellent years in Japan. Griffin will get his first opportunity to test himself against big league competition tonight, in an exhibition game against Venezuela.
Foster Griffin was a first round pick for the Royals back in 2014. However, things did not work out for the southpaw in the Royals organization. He did make his way to the big leagues after a long trek through the minors, but never established himself as a regular. Wanting to continue as a starter, Griffin went to Japan following the 2022 season.
In his three years pitching in NPB, Griffin was dominant. He posted a 2.57 ERA in 315.2 innings over in Japan. Griffin had his best season in 2025, posting a 1.52 ERA, but injuries limited him to just 89 innings. When he was healthy, Griffin used his deep pitch mix and command to dominate NPB hitters.
Paul Toboni signs his first Free Agent as the Nationals GM and it comes in the shape of LHP Foster Griffin
A 1 year, $5.5M deal. He is signed out of the NPB, coming over from the Yomiuri Giants
Across 315.2 IP as a SP for Yomiuri he posted a 2.57 ERA & 1.03 WHIP. 318/70 K/BB… pic.twitter.com/TwUg4CgVmB
The biggest question mark for Griffin is whether his softer arsenal will translate to the MLB. His fastball averaged just over 90 MPH last season, which is why he could only get a relatively modest one-year deal despite elite production. As a lefty, it is easier to survive with less velocity, but it is a question mark.
Griffin made up for his lack of power with an extremely deep mix of pitches. He threw seven different pitch types last season. Griffin was able to have a different pitch mix against righties and lefties. Against righties, he leaned more on his cutter and changeup to go with the fastball. He also mixed in his sweeper, as well as a splitter and occasional curve. Griffin’s sweeper was his go to secondary against lefties. He also used a sinker to get ground balls. In Japan, Griffin learned to mix up his pitches beautifully.
Former Yomiuri Giants LHP Foster Griffin lands with Washington for one-year, $5.5M.
Great low-risk signing. He’s very much capable of overperforming the contract.
That is what we will see from him tonight against Venezuela. I actually think he will rely even more on his secondary pitches in the MLB. Nats pitchers are moving away from fastballs in general, and Griffin’s deep bag of pitches gives him plenty of non-fastball options. Griffin threw his 4-seamer about 40% of the time in Japan, and I expect that to go down even more in the big leagues.
Like a lot of guys that go to Japan, Griffin really learned to pitch over in the NPB. He talked about his evolution in an interview before he signed. It was pretty cool hearing him talk about his time in Japan. Griffin described it as a second chance at baseball. He also went into detail about some of the new pitches he learned. Like many pitchers who go to Japan, Griffin picked up a splitter. He also found a sweeper grip that worked for him over there.
Foster Griffin, who's been pitching in Japan the last few years, feels like he's gotten a second chance at baseball.
Don’t get it twisted, Foster Griffin is not going to come back to the MLB looking like an ace. However, his new found craftsmanship gives him a chance to be a solid back of the rotation starter. If anything, Griffin will be tough on hitters because they don’t have the book on him yet. Hopefully, Griffin can take advantage of that and get off to a hot start. If that happens, the Nats could potentially move him at the deadline.
Griffin has been held back so far this spring, but he is finally getting a chance to show what he’s got tonight. All we have seen from Griffin is videos from live BP sessions. It is not much to go off of, but he seemed to really befuddle CJ Abrams in the one video we have of him throwing.
Venezuela will be a major first test for Griffin. They have a lot of star power in their lineup. The Venezuelans feature the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Salvador Perez, Eugenio Suarez and Jackson Chourio among others. This lineup is as good as any he will see in the MLB.
I will be watching to see what his pitch mix looks like and if he is able to find a tick or two of velocity. Griffin was asked to go deep into games over in Japan. Maybe, he could tick up to 91-92 if he does not have to conserve himself as much. Every tick matters for pitchers, especially when you don’t have a ton of velocity.
Overall, Griffin is an interesting story and someone I am curious to watch. He is very likely to be in the rotation, so I want to see what the lefty has got. Griffin made a few big league appearances in 2020 and 2022. However, with his new pitches, Griffin is a different guy now. I really do not know what to expect.
Entering the season, Griffin is the wild card of the rotation. There is a chance his stuff does not translate to North America. However, the track record of pitchers who dominate in the NPB coming to the MLB is pretty strong.
While both are soft-tossing lefties, Nats fans should not confuse Griffin for Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Griffin was much more productive in Japan, with far more swing and miss in his game. The Nats will be counting on Griffin to be a solid starter, and it is an intriguing gamble to take. I am excited to see what he has got tonight against a tough lineup.
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 27: Jurickson Profar #7 of the Atlanta Braves ducks out of the way of an inside pitch during the MLB game between the Pittsburg Pirates and the Atlanta Braves on September 27, 2025 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
You know the saying — yeah, that one. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice—if you fool me you can’t be fooled again.
Erm, anyway.
Look, I’m no stranger to, “You did what?“ I live in a house with two children under eight, a male orange cat (if you know, you know), two dogs that were rescued from not-so-great situations that don’t quite know how to be dogs, and, well, me. Even so, you have to think that ”take a PED-related sanction in MLB basically a calendar year after you took a prior PED-related sanction in MLB” is its own special case of a bruh moment.
What’s done is done at this point, and the Braves now need to scramble (again, for the same reason). But, technically, Jurickson Profar isn’t banned for 2027. Assuming there is a 2027 MLB season, anyway. Will the Braves just cut Profar for his duplicate transgressions? Will they somehow retain him and actually use him in 2027, even though he’ll have played for like three months in the span of over two years?
What do you think? To be clear: not what you think they should do, but what they will do.
BRADENTON, FL - FEBRUARY 27: Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (35) bats against the Pittsburgh Pirates on February 27, 2026, at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The spring training experience is different for everyone. Veteran players head down to shake off the rust and dive into a proven routine that works year after year. Bounceback candidates appreciate the opportunity for a fresh start. Prospects relish the chance to get in on the action, while some non-roster invitees treat it like a business trip.
I’ve left out one crucial category. In my opinion, the fans have the best spring training experience. Supporters flock to sunny Sarasota to watch their favorite players perform in an intimate atmosphere. The beers cold, the vibes are strong, and baseball is back.
I just returned north after spending a long weekend watching the Orioles play in Sarasota and Bradenton. It’s a trip that I can’t recommend highly enough to the sickos like us that think about baseball 365 days a year. I’ll stop bragging now and tell you what I saw.
Mountcastle looks unbothered
Ryan Mountcastle knows what it’s like to share first base. The 29-year-old watched his platoon partner Ryan O’Hearn emerge as an All Star last season. He took a back seat last September when the team wanted to provide Coby Mayo an extended look at first. Still, neither of those compare to the current roster crunch on the right side of the infield.
Baltimore inked Pete Alonso to a five year, $155 million deal to play the role of a power hitting first baseman. We’re not talking about Mayo or Samuel Basallo logging a few starts a week. This guy made 160 appearances at first last season, and the starting position clearly belongs to Alonso moving forward.
Mountcastle has heard his name in trade rumors, but he still works for the team that drafted him in the first round of the 2015 draft. The Orioles have yet to include him and any type of deal, and teams can do a lot worse than Mountcastle as a bench bat available late in games.
Mountcastle joked around with his former teammate O’Hearn before smoking a 104 MPH double down the left field line in Bradenton. He hit multiple balls hard and continued to look like a steady defender at first. Mountcastle served as the DH the following day and ripped a single up the middle.
Rutschman can still rip
With Basallo briefly sidelined (he’s since returned to game action), Adley Rutschman made consecutive spring starts behind the plate. He worked a walk in Bradenton, but he brought his big bat to the yard on Saturday. Rutschman doubled from the left side in his first at bat before launching a deep blast from the right side of the plate.
Everyone knows the boost Rutschman can provide if he returns to form at the dish. He entered today slashing .267/.353/.533 with a pair of walks in six appearances. For what it’s worth, Sam Huff is doing what he can to justify a spot as the third catcher. Huff went deep on Saturday, has a pair of doubles under his belt, and entered today hitting .333 in limited action.
The Honeycutt hype train is back
You’ve likely heard about Vance Honeycutt’s strong start by now, but the performance is worth repeating. Honeycutt has three official at bats so far this spring, and he’s 3-for-3 with three home runs. Honeycutt destroyed a hanging slider in his only AB of the day on Saturday.
The late innings of a spring game rarely feature the best competition, but the power surge is a reminder of what the former first-round pick brings to the table. Enrique Bradfield Jr. will receive the lionshare of the early attention, but look for Honeycutt to generate more buzz with a hot start to his minor league season.
McDermott faces uphill battle
Spring training often serves as a reminder that prospects don’t always develop. Non-roster invitees are often former top-prospects from other clubs that failed to develop. The spotlight on fresh faces like Ike Irish and Aron Estrada often steals some shine from forgotten favorites like Chayce McDermott and Jud Fabian.
McDermott became the first true camp cut yesterday along with some players not expecting to compete for a roster spot. McDermott struck out the side with some increased velocity back on February 24, but things fell apart on Saturday. The righty surrendered home runs on three consecutive pitches in the eighth inning. McDermott had thrown multiple different pitches, so this wasn’t a case of him just working on a fastball or anything like that.
There’s always a place in the bullpen for a hard throwing righty with options, but McDermott will have to earn his next opportunity at Norfolk.
Defensive versatility remains a priority
The Orioles emphasis on defensive versatility has continued under new skipper Craig Albernaz. Baltimore is providing Mayo a path to playing time at third base, and he looked comfortable at the hot corner on Saturday.
Albernaz had some fun with Mayo by shifting him to shortstop for an inning, but nobody should expect to see Mayo play the six in the regular season. But Dylan Beavers in center? That’s the type of defensive work that can prove valuable over 162 games.
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 05: Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Johan Rojas #18 rounds second base during the Friday evening MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies on July 5, 2024 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Much news out of springtime is good. This player is debuting a new pitch. This player’s swing is looking good. This player is in—say it with me now— The Best Shape of His Life (TM).
But not all of it is. Yesterday’s news that Johan Rojas is looking at a suspension for a positive PED test is decidedly in the negative department. Unless his appeal should change MLB’s mind, Rojas may be out until June, and ineligible for the playoffs.
Rojas figured to get significant playing time for the Phillies this year. Without him, the Phillies’ already tenuous outfield situation gets even more so. That makes today’s question obvious, if unpleasant:
We live in a world that’s increasingly predetermined. From the results in your search engine, to the next spoon-fed video YouTube recommends, to the advertisements you’ll see in this very article (which by the way you’ll see a lot less of if you sign up for Over The Monster and join our little community). Equations and algorithms run our life.
Enter the Red Sox rotation, which like our lives, feels increasingly preprogramed. There SHOULD be an intriguing little battle between Johan Oviedo, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle for the final spot behind Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello — but is there?
Yesterday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive did an outstanding job of outlining the factors at play, and by factors I mean the reason Oviedo is almost certainly going to get the first crack at the rotation over both Early and Tolle, no matter how fabulous their stuff looks on the mound down in Fort Myers. In short, Early has to spend 35 days in the minors for the Sox to gain an extra year of control of his services in 2032, and Tolle needs to spend 46 days down there to get that same extra year of control in 2032. So guess where they’re going come April?
Last week, we did our quarterly approval polling here at Over The Monster, and one of the questions asked “Do you believe the Red Sox will play service time manipulation games with Payton Tolle and / or Connelly Early?” A whopping 77% of respondents answered “yes” to that question, which is kind of astounding when you think about it. We can see what’s happening, and we know what’s about to transpire, but few cry foul because we’re slaves to the most “efficient” way to run a ballclub.
And of course, there’s also just enough plausible deniability where a couple of things could go off script and the kids end up breaking through anyway. The first of course is injury, and that’s partially how Early and Tolle got their shot last September. The rotation thinned, the other obvious options were clear losers, and the club needed fresh arms to get to the finish line. This spring, I see five arms in front of Early and Tolle and nearly a month to go before Opening Day, so it’s not impossible a slot opens up. Stuff happens!
Secondly, Early or Tolle could agree to a team friendly contract. Look no further than last spring when Kristian Campbell made the Opening Day roster over both Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer despite not looking nearly as good as either of them in camp. And wouldn’t you know it, just days after the season started, Campbell and the club agreed to an eight-year, $60 million deal. (What an amazing coincidence! I’m sure there’s no possible way that was agreed to before camp ended and influenced who made the roster.)
In any case, those are the two most likely ways I see Early and/or Tolle making the roster out of the gate, but as far as actually pitching their way into the rotation through good ol’ fashion merit? Well, let’s just say my cynical ass has some serious doubts. In fact, the better these guys look, the more likely the Sox are to to try and wrestle away that extra year of control. It’s all part of that Cobra Effect we talked about last year with Anthony and Mayer, just playing out with a new cast of characters.
Now of course, the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) is still right there, and in theory it should work to get these guys up in Boston right away, but Cotillo even notes in his piece, this scenario remains quote “unlikely.”
So here’s how this probably plays out: If everybody stays healthy through March, Early and Tolle will need to “work on a few more things in Worcester so they’re truly ready for major league lineups.” However, if injuries pop up, then the Sox will be “so impressed” with one or both of them and they couldn’t leave them off the roster. Here, they will have “earned” that rotation spot.
Oh, and if Early or Tolle somehow do make the rotation the first swing through without any injuries, bet the farm on a contract extension being magically agreed to within days of the season starting. I mean, just look at how the big name prospects were called up last year for refence:
Kristian Campbell: Agreed to a long-term, team friendly contract in the spring, and he got a shot right away.
Marcelo Mayer: Called up in May when Alex Bregman went on the IL with a quad injury.
Roman Anthony: Called up in June when Wilyer Abreu went on the IL with an oblique injury.
Payton Tolle and Connelly Early: Called up at the end of the summer when Dick Fitts hit the IL, Walker Buehler was released, and Dustin May got injured within a couple weeks of each other.
The pattern is clear. Why would this year be any different?
Over the weekend, Payton Tolle did an interview with the Section 10 guys, and in it he mentions a recent interaction with a fan where upon confirming Tolle’s concentrating on a starting role, the fan said something along the lines of “oh, so you’re going to be starting the season in Worcester?” And I couldn’t help but laugh because that fan could easily be from one of two possible extremes — Both of which seem amazing well represented among Red Sox fans:
He could be your classic New England a-hole who has no problem telling anybody how much they suck to their face.
He could be somebody who knows exactly how service time manipulation works, how the Red Sox use it, and why Tolle is a prime candidate to experience it in 2026.
The is no in-between here!
But at the end of the day, despite that amusing little story, doesn’t this suck? Sports are supposed to be one of the last remaining bastions of spontaneous, unpredictable things in life where the human element still rules the show. And yet, when it comes to who fills out the first few trips through the rotation, we’re likely stuck with a preprogrammed script. On one hand, I get it, but on the other hand, I’m really, really underwhelmed by it.
Now, a couple final thoughts before I wrap this up.
One: I actually do think Tolle needs to spend some time in Worcester to work on his secondary pitches. He needs this better secondary stuff to complement his electric fastball and keep hitters off balance. Connelly Early however should have a real chance at getting major league starts. While not as flashy as Tolle, he has a much deeper arsenal and already knows how to use it.
Secondly, because I need to scratch this itch, I believe the bloated, oversaturated playoff field is a huge problem when it comes to treating players properly. When fewer teams make the postseason, and there’s fewer division winners to reward, there’s more pressure on clubs to put the best team possible on the field from day one. Do you remember what April and May games felt like as recently as the early 2000s when fewer teams made it to October and you had to get out of the gate hot to keep up with the Yankees and the top Wild Card team?
Part of the reason why it’s inefficient to play young players who may be better, more productive roster fits is because the sport’s overlords have devalued the 162 game season to the point that you can kind of get away with this chicanery. Not giving another inch in terms of more teams in the postseason (or even pushing to reduce the number of postseason teams) is a sneaky huge issue I’d stand firm on if I were the players in the upcoming war with the owners next winter.
In the meantime, Early and Tolle should start looking at short-term rental options in Worcester.
Let’s start off by being honest. Left field is a bit of a quagmire for the Astros as they aren’t sure if Yordan Alvarez will get a majority of the starts out there or if they can follow through with their plan to DH him. I should not that in the Hall of Fame Index I did not have a DH position, so Yordan would be categorized as a left fielder anyway. We will undoubtedly see Zach Cole there on occasion, Zach Dezenzo on occasion, and Joey Loperfido on occasion. For our purposes here, we will look at just Alvarez and Dezenzo.
However, I am throwing in one more name that is not and probably never will be an Astro. I insert him as a frame of reference. One of the things I have found is that analytics requires any number of frames of reference. I usually talk about the averages for each number we look at it, but sometimes it is informative to look at what the very best are doing. So, I am including a player that I believe to be the best overall hitter in baseball. I’m certain I will get pushback there, but I have my preferences which I will go into.
Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.
HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.
Yordan Alvarez
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
2023
27.8
52.2
.306
79.5
21.2
2024
31.3
49.7
.317
81.3
16.0
2025
28.0
52.9
.295
78.4
9.5
Aggregate
29.0
51.6
.306
79.7
15.6
Coming into last season, Yordan had two superpowers. He hit the ball really hard and more of his flyballs turned into dingers than any other Astro. Obviously, those numbers dipped last season in the power department, but we can probably chalk it up to the hand thing and move on. However, his chase and contact rates are also slightly above the big league average, so the key to his game is that he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses at the plate.
Keep that socked away in your mind when we look at what to expect from him but also where to categorize him in the game. If there is a significant bounce back candidate on this squad it is Yordan. He was starting to come back late last season, but then injured his ankle running the bases (stepped funny on home plate) and was lost for the season. Just for fun, let’s compare him with the best hitter in baseball.
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
2023
17.2
55.3
.296
81.9
24.5
2024
18.4
56.1
.298
79.8
25.0
2025
16.2
55.1
.270
79.9
25.1
Aggregate
17.3
55.7
.288
80.5
24.9
These are Juan Soto’s numbers. I will grant that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani will likely have singular categories better than Soto. Luis Arreaz makes more contact than Soto. However, that is not what makes Soto the best hitter in baseball. What makes him the best hitter in baseball is the microscopic chase rate. There is no player in baseball more adept at getting on base than Soto and he succeeds in making people pay when they do come in the zone.
What strikes me is that Yordan is not that far away from Soto historically. The only category that is wildly different is the chase category. Yordan hits the ball just as hard. When you go back beyond these three seasons you see that he also has similar power numbers. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it is probably a duck. If you put up underlying numbers that match the best hitter in baseball then you are one of the best hitters in baseball. Yordan has an opportunity to be THAT guy again. If he is THAT guy then the Astros offense becomes viable again.
Zach Dezenzo
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
2023
—-
—-
.382
70.8
18.8
2024
23.1
51.4
.371
75.7
14.3
2025
21.6
41.0
.373
69.3
8.3
Aggregate
22.4
46.2
.375
71.9
13.8
These are mostly the minor league numbers for Dezenzo and as we can see, he did not play above AA in 2023. This hitting profile is becoming all too familiar. It looks almost identical to what Brice Mathews is bringing to the table. Not to spoil any future articles, but we will see it again with Zach Cole and Joey Loperfido. Dana Brown has a type. He likes selective hitters that hit the ball hard and have good power. Unfortunately, that usually comes with some hit and miss.
I only have the numbers to go on, but I would assume the idea is that hopefully one or two of them will make enough contact to be viable big league hitters. Most hitters are not Juan Soto or Yordan Alvarez. Those guys are the guys that get megadeals. Most hitters have a hole. The question is where do you want your hole? The Astros have chosen contact for most of their upper level prospects. Is that right way to go? What do you think?
Feb 27, 2026; Jupiter, Florida, USA; New York Mets second baseman Vidal Brujan (2) returns to the dugout against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Meet the Mets
The Mets beat Team Nicaragua 6-3 in an exhibition game before the World Baseball Classic begins. Jonah Tong made the start for the Mets, going 2.2 innings and giving up a run while striking out three. Brooks Raley and Craig Kimbrel also each gave up a run, while the other five pitchers on the Mets side escaped their appearances unscathed. It was an group effort on the offensive side as well, with Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez, Vidal Bruján, and Chris Cuero each driving in runs, with Bruján driving in two including the game-winning run.
After playing catch on Monday, Francisco Lindor will hopefully be able to take batting practice today, a good sign for his hope to return by Opening Day.
Nolan McLean is on the mend and with Team USA after suffering with some vertigo-like symptoms last week.
Not only is McLean likely to start for Team USA in the March 10 game against Team Italy, but he’s expected to start the final on March 17 (provided Team USA makes it).
Tom Seaver’s 1969 World Series ring sold for a tidy sum at an auction.
St. John’s University honored Shannon Forde, former Mets senior director of media relation until her untimely passing a decade ago, by presenting a jersey to her family.
Edwin Díaz went into more detail about his departure from the Mets, among other things.
Jon Heyman listed eight Mets who could make or break the Mets season.
Around the National League East
Jurickson Profar has tested positive for banned PEDs for the second year in a row and is facing a full 162-game suspension, which would encompass the entire 2026 season.
The MLB Players Association plans to challenge the suspension of Profar by the league.
Baseball Prospectus has published their season preview for the Miami Marlins.
Around Major League Baseball
MLB has compiled a guide to all the teams in each pool at the World Baseball Classic.
TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 25: Clarke Schmidt #36 of the New York Yankees participates in a spring training workout at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 25, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Come Opening Day, the Yankees’ starting rotation will be far from full strength. Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole will both be on the injured list to begin the 2026 campaign, but the Bombers will also be without Clarke Schmidt for a significant stretch to begin the year. The right-hander is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent during last July with the newer internal brace procedure.
Whether Schmidt will even be among the top five starters when he is able to return remains to be seen, but nonetheless, the Yankees will be without another valuable arm for much of the campaign. He has missed ample time over the last two seasons, but his performance during that stretch has been the best of his career, so the Yankees would welcome a full return from their 30-year-old starter.
Schmidt debuted for the Yankees back in 2020, and after forgettable cups of coffee in that season and in 2021, the right-hander got his first real look at action the following year. The 2022 season saw him pitch in 29 games, only three of which were starts, but it was a solid body of work — a 3.12 ERA in 57.2 innings. A year later, he was a full-fledged member of that starting rotation, making 32 starts, doing so as an average back half guy, managing a 4.42 FIP in his 159 innings of work.
More recently, Schmidt is coming off of some of his best work, albeit limited due to the elbow injury. In 85.1 innings, the now 30-year-old managed a 2.85 ERA in 2024, the lowest figure or his career. His strikeout rates increased to over 25 percent, and he kept the walks at bay. When on the mound, Schmidt had shown himself to be a fairly dependable, and at times good, Major League starter. Of course, the primary issue was his ability to only stay healthy for 16 starts, though he was active as a member of the playoff rotation en route to the 2024 Fall Classic.
The good times continued in 2025, as Schmidt was nearly as good in 78.1 innings of work last season, although the peripheral numbers were slightly worse. If nothing else, the continuation of that impressive stretch likely convinced the Yankees that he could be a dependable arm every fifth day. But, once again, the injury trouble resurfaced with his aforementioned Tommy John internal brace procedure — the second TJ of his career, following a pre-draft operation in early 2017. He was sidelined in July, and likely won’t be back until the later months of the 2026 campaign.
As far as his ability is concerned, the Yankees should feel fine about Schmidt. He has posted three consecutive seasons of fine-to-very-good pitching, and has even shown flashes of excellent work on the mound. Expectations should be managed, considering the limited sample size and the significant injury, but it is fair to assume that he is a solid big-league pitcher.
The right-hander’s health, however, is the primary concern. Despite the impressive numbers, Schmidt has also posted consecutive seasons in which he basically pitched half of a full-time starter’s role. Between shoulder trouble and the elbow procedure, his health is far from a certainty. The Yankees will be without him for at least the first half of the season, and their first question will certainly be of whether he can stay on the mound for an extended period. Returning from a second Tommy John surgery only adds another hurdle. Schmidt will be familiar with the rehab grind, but one never truly knows how their elbow takes to the procedure until the possible return to game action gets closer and the intensity rises. Although we can be optimistic, the first year back—especially a partial year like this one will be—can be bumpy. A setback or two could potentially nix his 2026 as well. Will Schmidt be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by late summer?
They say you can never have enough pitching, and they say it for good reason. When Schmidt does eventually return, it will be welcomed by a Yankees staff that has several hurlers returning from significant injury. Baseball being baseball, others will likely be on the shelf by then, too. Until then, the Yankees will have to wait on Schmidt’s recovery. The latest updates say that Schmidt could be throwing bullpen sessions soon, and perhaps facing hitters in the coming month or two. Get well soon, pal.
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - MARCH 3: Roki Sasaki #11 of the Los Angeles Dodgers heads to the dugout after being removed during the first inning of the spring training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Goodyear Ballpark on March 3, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a disappointing regular season and a shoulder injury that cost him four months worth of time, Roki Sasaki was the saving grace for the Dodgers bullpen during their most recent title run.
Sasaski was finally able to show flashes of his promising potential that was heavily advertised the offseason prior, and after his brief bullpen stint, he is now set to return to the Dodgers rotation this upcoming season. Just like how his 2025 regular season began, Sasaki has struggled mightily on the mound over his first two starts of the spring.
Sasaki allowed three runs in his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, following that up by allowing another four runs against the Cleveland Guardians via a grand slam from Kyle Manzardo on Tuesday. Although the Dodgers were able to salvage both games after the right-hander’s departures, the early results have painted a bleak picture on Sasaki’s outlook ahead of opening day. Despite the struggles, the plan is to keep him in the rotation come the Dodgers opening series on March 26, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com.
“I think it can change. But I don’t think it’s gonna change before we break,” Roberts said. “Building him up, we see him as a starter, and giving him every opportunity for success. But again, we still gotta coach him up, and he’s still gotta continue to get outs and work ahead like Major League starters do.”
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River Ryan later came in relief during Tuesday’s contest against Cleveland, and tossed two scoreless innings while striking out three and allowing zero hits and one walk. Ryan’s stock for making the opening day rotation is rising with every appearance— especially with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone officially ruled out— but Dave Roberts won’t make any hasty decisions too early amidst the competition, per Courtney Hollmon of MLB.com.
“I think right now, where we’re at, I don’t think we need to really talk about a competition as far as the rotation. Once we get to the 21st of March, we’ll have a better idea once we break camp. But I think right now, there’s just too much that can happen.”
Dave Roberts spoke about the team’s top pitching prospect Jackson Ferris, as the left-hander has impressed with 2 2/3 scoreless innings so far this spring, per Jack Vita of the Los Angeles Times.
“I like Jackson,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said recently. “I like the player. He’s a good kid. A lot of talent. I think for me, it’s just trying to harness his arsenal. It’s a good fastball. He needs to continue to get ahead, be able to put hitters away with the secondary pitches, be efficient with his pitches per inning, but I like Jackson.”
