Category: Baseball

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The Los Angeles Dodgers hit the road tonight, and they enter the series opener against the New York Mets as a clear -138 moneyline favorite. 

However, with the struggling Roki Sasaki on the hill, my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions see value in the hosts as an underdog. 

Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 24. 

Who will win Dodgers vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (+119)

Roki Sasaki has been in horrible form for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's posted a 7.28 FIP over his last four appearances.

During that span, he's allowed a 44.2% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate. Sasaki is incredibly inconsistent, and the Mets are averaging a 40.5% hard-hit rate in the last five games. 

The New York Mets counter with Sean Manaea. Although his 4.76 xERA across the last month is nothing to write home about, the Dodgers haven’t shown much power against lefties, posting a .166 ISO in that split, and the Mets bullpen has been lights out lately with a 3.06 xERA in the last week. 

The Mets jump on Sasaki, and Manaea limits the damage enough before handing things over to the pen. 

I'll play this pick up to -110. 

COVERS INTEL: Sasaki has surrendered 2.89 HR/9 over his last four starts, compared to 1.97 HR/9 overall this season. 

Dodgers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+114)

This total sits at 9.5, and the bullpen situation gives the Over a realistic path. The Dodgers pen has been shaky lately, posting a 5.07 FIP over its last 19.1 innings while giving up 1.86 HR/9.

That’s important against a Mets lineup that has been solid recently, carrying a 103 wRC+ over the last week. 

Los Angeles hasn’t been as productive, sitting at 92 wRC+ during that span, but Manaea’s vulnerabilities over the last month still leave room for the Dodgers to contribute at the dish. 

If the Mets get to Sasaki early, it creates a clear path to the Over, especially given LA's bullpen struggles.

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

Dodgers vs Mets weather

Conditions should be very favorable at Citi Field tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from the upper 70s into the low 70s. Winds will be light at roughly 6 to 9 mph, and there is no rain concern. Weather should have minimal impact on scoring or ball carry.

Dodgers vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Los Angeles -133 | New York +127
• Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+122) | New York +1.5 (-127)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-127) | Under 8.5 (+122)

Dodgers vs Mets trend

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 50 games at home (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.

How to watch Dodgers vs Mets and game info

Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries

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We've got a stacked slate of MLB action tonight, so let's fill up those cards and kick off the weekend on a high note!

Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Friday, July 24.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
German Marquez	Under 3.5 Strikeouts	-138
Munetaka Murakami	1+ Hit	-156
Tomoyuki Sugano	Over 5.5 Hits Allowed	-132

German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Entering Friday, San Diego Padres right-hander German Marquez owns the lowest matchup strikeout rate among today's starters, according to Batters-Box.

On top of that, he has to face five elite-rated hitters and two hitters with strong ratings. The Miami Marlins also do not have a single hitter above the league average strikeout rate.

In 31 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate, Marquez has gone under this prop 58.06% of the time. Across his last five starts, he owns just a 13.83% strikeout rate.

Even with the Marlins going through a cold stretch over the last few weeks, there is too much data on their side against Marquez for me to have any concern.

The right-hander has struggled recently, posting a 6.30 ERA, 5.68 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP over his last five starts.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAM, SDPA

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Hits (-156)

If you are not in the juice paying business, take Munetaka Murakami's hits+runs+RBI prop instead. However, at this price, the floor is well worth it in my book.

The Chicago White Sox rookie has maintained a .273 BA, .922 OPS, and 54.5% hard hit rate over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.

Not to mention, he enters Friday evening with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he records a hit 66.67% of the time. He also covers over 73% of Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti's arsenal.

Arrighetti throws fastballs and curveballs 68.9% of the time, and Murakami has found success against both offerings. He owns an expected batting average of at least .378 and is generating at least a 60% hard hit rate against each pitch.

Arrighetti has struggled heavily against left-handed hitters this season, and his recent outings have not shown much improvement. Over his last 60 batters faced, hitters are generating a 42.4% hard hit rate, 18.2% barrel rate, and just a 24.2% ground ball rate.

I think Murakami is due for a big outing at the dish. Give me the floor at -156. 

• Time: 7:40p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-132)

According to Batters-Box's current season dataset, the highest rated offense on the day belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who own an average hitter matchup rating of 0.501.

To put that number into perspective, a hitter matchup rating above 0.450 is considered "elite." Milwaukee enters Friday with five elite-rated hitters and two more carrying strong ratings.

Despite the Brewers' recent cold streak, I fully expect them to get after Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano this evening. Sugano enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate while allowing the most hard contact among today's starters.

When Sugano receives a poor rating on Batters-Box, he allows 5+ hits 70.37% of the time, 6+ hits 55.56% of the time, and 7+ hits 29.63% of the time. In his last ten poorly rated outings, he has allowed 6+ hits in six games.

I would play this down to -135 at the most, or look toward the Brewers to go Over their first five team total.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, BREW

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The Trade Deadline is just over a week away and the Cubs are expected to be aggressive buyers. So now is a good time to see what prospects the Cubs have that might interest other teams.

The Cubs farm system has had a good first half of the season. Both Double-A Knoxville and High-A South Bend won their first-half division titles. Several prospects, most notably Josiah Hartshorn and Owen Ayers, took huge steps forward and have established themselves among the Top 100 prospects in the game. I also think the Cubs had a good draft, although time will tell on that. But four recent draft picks made my new Top 25.

Several players have graduated off of my pre-season list. Pre-season top prospect Moisés Ballesteros may be back in the minors, but he exceeded the 120 plate appearances in the majors before going back down. Neither Kevin Alcántara nor Pedro Ramírez have 120 plate appearances yet, but both do have the 45 days in the majors, which is another marker of the end of prospect status. But it should be noted that while Mo Baller, the Jaguar and Ramírez (someone get Pedro a nickname!) are no longer considered prospects, they are the kinds of players with potential and six years of team control that teams are looking for when trading with the Cubs.

Here is where I see the Cubs’ Top 25 prospects at the moment. I think this list is a lot deeper than the one that I made this past winter. Still, there isn’t a lot of difference between someone ranked 19 and 25 nor between someone ranked in the 20s and a lot of people I didn’t rank. So if you’re asking “Why isn’t [so-and-so] here?,” the answer is almost certainly “I could have put him on instead of [player name].”

A quick reminder that this year’s draft picks—Cade Townsend, Brandon Sorrell, Myles Bailey and Carson Jasa—cannot be traded at the Deadline.

As always, I don’t rank players still in the Dominican Summer League. However, those players will also be available for trades. But major league teams only rarely want players that young and that far away from the majors in Deadline deals.

BCB Cubs top 25 prospects: Mid-season update

1. Josiah Hartshorn 1B/OF
2. Jefferson Rojas INF
3. Owen Ayers C
4. Kane Kepley OF
5. Cade Townsend RHP
6. Jaxon Wiggins RHP
7. Ethan Conrad OF
8. Kaleb Wing RHP
9. Caden Sorrell OF
10. James Triantos 2B/OF
11. Jonathon Long 1B/LF
12. Myles Bailey 1B
13. Ty Southisene SS
14. Brooks Caple RHP
15. Dominick Reid RHP
16. Juan Cabada 2B
17. Jostin Florentino RHP
18. Mason McGwire RHP 
19. Brett Bateman OF
20. Will Sanders RHP
21. Nazier Mulé RHP 
22. Jose Escobar LF/2B
23. Carson Jasa RHP
24. Grant Kipp RHP
25. Pierce Coppola LHP

Josiah Hartshorn has been struggling a bit lately, but he still shows an advanced approach at the plate and excellent power. There’s some risk here from the hit tool, maybe more than some of us would like to admit, but he’s probably one of the top 40 prospects in baseball right now and probably off-limits for all likely trades.

Jefferson Rojas, still just 21, is having an excellent season in Double-A after struggling in his first exposure there last year. With the Cubs major league infield set for the near future, he’s a strong candidate to get dealt.

Owen Ayers built off that strong Arizona Fall League performance and has played his way all the way up to Triple-A. He’s still a bat-over-glove catcher, but his defense is getting better and his arm has always been strong. Teams will ask about him and while I don’t think he’s off-limits, the Cubs will be loathe to deal him for anything short of a haul.

Kane Kepley is an on-base machine who steals a ton of bases. He’s also a very good defensive center fielder. With Pete Crow-Armstrong ensconced in center for the foreseeable future, Kepley has to be considered a trade candidate for the right price.

The injuries to Jaxon Wiggins have me moving him just behind first-round draft pick Cade Townsend. With the Townsend pick, Wiggins becomes more available. I’m not sure, however, that Wiggins has time enough to re-establish his value before next Monday for the Cubs to get enough back to deal him.

Ethan Conrad has only just started playing after being last year’s first-round pick. So far, he hasn’t looked all that impressive in Low-A Myrtle Beach, but he’s also missed more than a year of playing time. So it may just be rust.

James Triantos is making his major-league debut today. He’s re-established some value after a strong season in Iowa. But while Triantos could be a major league starter, he lacks the power to be an impact player and his major league role and skill set is duplicated by Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramírez, whom I’d argue do it better.

Ty Southisene is currently injured, but his value has gone up this year as he’s hit .302 with a .422 OBP. He’s also proven that he can at minimum play an adequate shortstop, which gives him a lot more utility infielder value. He has yet to hit his first professional home run, which lowers his value

Juan Cabada makes my list for the first time after playing in the Arizona Complex League. He showed a solid bat as an 18-year-old before he got injured at the end of May. He has not returned to the field since then.

I still think Mason McGwire is a reliever at the major league level, but after missing all of 2025, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year with better stuff and much-improved command. There’s also always the chance I’m wrong and McGwire ends up as a starter. I can imagine the A’s or the Cardinals asking for McGwire in any potential trade.

I’m still quite suspicious of Brett Bateman as his .306 batting average in Iowa is driven by a very high batting average on balls in play. He also has almost no power. But Bateman also makes a lot of contact, walks about as much as he strikes out, steals a lot of bases and plays good defense in center field. He’s more of a fourth outfielder than a starter, but he’s also in Triple-A and close to major-league ready.

Nazier Mulé touches 100 miles per hour and has greatly improved his control this year. He still walks too many batters, but he’s moving in the right direction. It should be noted that Mulé didn’t devote himself full-time to pitching until the Cubs drafted him out of high school in 2022.

Jose Escobar is having a breakout season in South Bend, in large part because he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 20.8 percent to 13 percent. The fact that he’s looking more “left fielder” than “second baseman” hurts his value, but a team that thinks he can still play second base might value him higher.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out yesterday’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (49-48) POSTPONED

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (43-49) POSTPONED

A+: Asheville Tourists (32-60) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Oakes started for Asheville and went 3.1 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Frey solo home run. After the Hot Rods got a run in the 6th, Batista tied the game in the 7th with a 2 run home run. The Hot Rods immediately retook the lead though with a run in the bottom of the 7th. Asheville was unable to score again as they fell 4-3.

Note: Frey has a .773 OPS in High-A.

• Ethan Frey, LF: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Caden Powell, RF: 1-for-3, BB
• Zach Daudet, SS: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Freuddy Batista, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI

• Kellan Oakes, RHP: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Jordan Carr, LHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (46-45) won 10-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first on a Luciano RBI double. They broke it open in the 3rd scoring 5 runs on a Luciano RBI single, Flores groundout, Fielder RBI single and Cauro 2 run home run. In the 5th inning, Fielder added an RBI triple. The offense got 2 more runs in the 6th on a wild pitch and Sierra sac fly. Beck got the start for the Woodpeckers and was great tossing 6 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts. Fielder added a run in the 8th on a bases loaded hit by pitch. Shoemaker tossed 2 scoreless innings in relief and Rosario closed it out allowing 2 runs as the Woodpeckers won 10-2.

Note: Luciano is hitting .400 over his last 14 games.

• Josh Wakefield, CF: 3-for-6, 2 R, 2 2B, SB
• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 1-for-4, 2 R, BB, SB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 4-for-6, R, 2B, 2 RBI, SB
• Arturo Flores, C: 0-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Jadyn Fielder, LF: 2-for-3, R, 3B, 3 RBI, BB
• Carlos Cauro, 1B: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• DJ Newman, RF: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (WIN)
• Adam Shoemaker, LHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ryan Weiss – 7:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 5:05 CT

AV: Andrew Taylor – 6:35 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

In a recent Trade Deadline-focused piece for The Athletic, writer Jim Bowden proposed a trade between the Cubs and Royals that he would like to see:

Cubs receive: Michael Wacha, RHP

Royals receive: Matt Shaw, INF/OF; Kevin Alcántara, OF

[…]

In return, the Royals get two young bats who can’t crack the Cubs’ starting lineup in Shaw and Alcántara. Shaw, 24, can play second base, third base and corner outfield. As an everyday player, he projects to have 15-20 home run power. Alcántara, 23, has never been given a legitimate chance with Chicago, but he’s having another strong season in Triple A.

Both players are 24. Shaw is nominally a third baseman, but has played primarily in right field with some second and first mixed in. Alcántara is a centerfielder. Shaw was considered the 22nd overall best prospect in MLB by FanGraphs when he graduated last year and was hitting about league average before being sidelined with an injury on June 29th. He still needs to tap into some game power to be as good as he’s projected, but the projections are very good indeed.

Alcántara is still considered a prospect, and the fifth best in the Cubs’ system, despite debuting in 2024 due to a lack of plate appearances at the big league level. On his third run at AAA, he’s doing quite well for himself with a .936 OPS and a double-digit walk rate. He strikes out nearly 1/3 of the time, but if he can access in the big leagues the power that’s seen him hit 17 home runs in 55 AAA games this year, he could be a very valuable player indeed. Despite having well-graded speed, he’s never stolen as many as 20 bases in a single season.

Ideally, I think the Royals would want to focus on guys who were still true prospects rather than graduated and nearly-graduated guys. They might also prefer someone for whom baseball was more of a priority than Shaw has shown it to be for him. But these are still a pair of very talented hitters and would probably be a huge boost to the youth and talent of the Royals organization. How would you grade this trade if the Royals and Cubs agreed to it?

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As we put that five-game Thursday slate behind us, a full Friday slate is here. This evening, I am loving the underdog market, so let's dive in!

Here are today's MLB moneyline predictions as we break down a full slate of MLB picks for Friday, July 24, starring the Atlanta Braves.

MLB moneyline picks for July 24

Matchup	Pick
Rockies vs Brewers	+223
Royals vs Tigers	+264
Cubs vs Pirates	+108
Diamondbacks vs Nationals	+111
Yankees vs Phillies	-125
Braves vs Orioles	+106
Dodgers vs Mets	-133
Guardians vs Rays	-127
Padres vs Marlins	+125
Blue Jays vs Red Sox	-117
Astros vs White Sox	+125
Mariners vs Rangers	+108
Athletics vs Twins	+130
Reds vs Cardinals	-147
Angels vs Giants	+153

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-24.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 24

Rockies vs Brewers: Rockies (+223)

Rockies win probability: 31%

Are you really going to lay -228 with a Brewers offense that has an 87 wRC+, a 25% strikeout rate, and just a 5.8% barrel rate over its last six games?

Meanwhile, the Rockies own a 41% hard-hit rate, a 19.6% strikeout rate, and a .175 ISO over their last six.

Sure, Tomoyuki Sugano isn't the sexiest pitcher to put your money on, but at +223, it may be worth a sprinkle.

Royals vs Tigers: Royals (+264)

Royals win probability: 28%

Are you really paying -270 just because Tarik Skubal is on the mound? You shouldn't.

The Royals' offense is finally starting to heat up, posting a 115 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, and a .762 OPS over its last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have a 25.6% strikeout rate, a 35% hard-hit rate, and a 104 wRC+ over that same stretch.

Give me the Royals.

Cubs vs Pirates: Cubs (+108)

Cubs win probability: 48%

Give me another underdog!

Sure, Jared Jones has been nails over his last few starts, but the Pirates' offense has gone cold lately. Meanwhile, the Cubs have posted a 130 wRC+, a .360 wOBA, and an .809 OPS over their last six games.

Matthew Boyd has been a bit shaky on the road, but over his last three starts, he's posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just a 5.56% walk rate.

If the Cubs' offense can get to Jones while Boyd continues pitching at this level, I think they come out on top.

Diamondbacks vs Nationals: Nationals (+111)

Nationals win probability: 48%

You could not convince me to back the Diamondbacks when one of the most efficient offenses in baseball is an underdog.

While Arizona has started to heat up over the past week, Washington has been rolling for more than a month. On top of that, Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 4.91 xERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season, and he's carrying a 6.52 ERA over his last three starts.

Yankees vs Phillies: Phillies (-125)

Phillies win probability: 56%

Sure, Cam Schlittler is on the mound for the Yankees, but how are they going to score runs? Over their last 21 games, New York has posted a 74 wRC+, .281 wOBA, and .634 OPS.

Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for the Phillies, carrying a 0.69 ERA, 1.42 xERA, and 0.61 WHIP across his last three starts.

The Phillies offense has not been much better, but I believe Schlittler is due for some regression over his next few outings, which gives Philadelphia the edge in this matchup.

Braves vs Orioles: Braves (+106)

Braves win probability: 48%

The underdog leans keep rolling!

Trevor Rogers takes the mound for the Orioles this evening, and while he has looked excellent lately, his underlying metrics point toward regression.

Over his last three starts, Rogers owns a 1.04 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at 4.26. His strikeout rate has been low, his walk rate has been a bit elevated, and the left-hander is allowing nearly 44% hard contact to opposing hitters.

Grant Holmes gets the ball for the Braves and has been sharp over his last five starts, posting a 1.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Atlanta's offense has also started to heat up, making the Braves a very appealing underdog in this spot.

Dodgers vs Mets: Dodgers (-133)

Dodgers win probability: 57%

God, this is gross. Roki Sasaki versus Sean Manaea is not exactly a pitching matchup that inspires confidence, so expect some fireworks. Even so, I'm rolling with the Dodgers here.

Sasaki has been shaky all season, but Los Angeles still has the superior lineup and bullpen. In a matchup like this, I'll trust the better team overall.

Guardians vs Rays: Rays (-130)

Rays win probability: 56%

This should be a solid matchup based on how well both offenses have been swinging the bats lately, but I think the Rays come out on top this evening.

The biggest reason is Joey Cantillo. While his recent results may not look terrible, the underlying metrics suggest regression is on the horizon.

Across his last three starts, he has allowed a 44% hard-hit rate, a .463 BABIP, and owns a 1.80 WHIP. I think those numbers catch up to him tonight, giving Tampa Bay the edge.

Padres vs Marlins: Padres (+125)

Padres win probability: 44%

I find it difficult to back an offense that owns a 70 wRC+, .268 wOBA, and .602 OPS over its last six games, especially when the opposing team has posted a 167 wRC+, .406 wOBA, and .944 OPS over that same stretch. I want the Padres here.

German Marquez has been a liability for much of the season, but if he can simply be serviceable against this ice-cold Marlins offense, the Padres should be in a good spot against Ryan Gusto.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-117)

Red Sox win probability: 54%

It's the Red Sox or nothing here.

The Blue Jays remain one of the most lifeless offenses in baseball, posting just a 67 wRC+, .266 wOBA, and .115 ISO over their last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in the league during that same stretch.

Pay the juice.

Astros vs White Sox: Astros (+125)

Astros win probability: 44%

With Davis Martin's recent struggles on the mound and how cold the White Sox have been at the plate, even after coming off a series win, I want no part of them here.

The Astros offense has been humming, and if they can get to Martin early, I trust Spencer Arrighetti to keep Chicago's ice-cold lineup in check.

Mariners vs Rangers: Rangers (+108)

Rangers win probability: 48%

The Mariners can be everyone's AL sleeper all they want, but they still own an 81 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .623 OPS over their last six games. Those numbers have remained virtually unchanged across their last 21 games.

On the other side, the Rangers offense is starting to heat up, posting a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .770 OPS over that same 21-game stretch.

I am willing to trust MacKenzie Gore here despite his ugly 7.09 ERA over his last five starts. His underlying metrics tell a much different story, as he owns a 3.11 xERA during that span. 

Athletics vs Twins: Athletics (+130)

Athletics win probability: 44%

With Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews taking the mound, I want the Athletics. Over his last three starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA, 5.86 xERA, and 2.19 WHIP, making him one of the easiest pitchers to fade on the slate.

Jacob Lopez has not been much better in terms of results for the Athletics, but his underlying numbers are far more encouraging. He owns a 2.78 xERA over his last three starts, giving me more confidence in Oakland to come away with the win.

The Athletics offense has been heating up, while the Twins have been cooling down. Give me the A's!

Reds vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-147)

Cardinals win probability: 60%

Your mom's new favorite country singer, Rhett Lowder, takes the bump for the Reds this evening while carrying a 9.64 ERA, 4.81 xERA, and 2.36 WHIP over his last five starts. Not to mention, he is allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and has posted an extremely high .481 BABIP during that stretch.

Even with the Cardinals struggling over the past week, I think this is a clear bounce-back spot for them.

Angels vs Giants: Angels (+153)

Angels win probability: 40%

Holy gross. Both starters this evening are carrying ERAs above 8.00 over their last three starts, while both offenses have been completely frozen across their last 12 games.

Give me the underdog here. I am not paying $1.56 for a struggling arm paired with a struggling offense.

Do not pay the juice. Take the dog.

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The Philadelphia Phillies are -135 favorites to take the series opener vs. the New York Yankees tonight at Citizens Bank Park. 

But with two excellent starters taking on a pair of struggling offenses, I'm happy to take the value on the underdog with my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 24.

Who will win Yankees vs Phillies today: Yankees moneyline (+115)

The Philadelphia Phillies are ice-cold on offense. They have hit just .222 against right-handed pitching in July and .202 over their last 10 games. 

Cam Schlittler has allowed only eight runs over eight starts against teams that ranked Bottom-10 in batting average in the 10 games prior to squaring off, and the Phillies sit 27th.

Jesus Luzardo is in exceptional form himself. However, he owns a 4.68 ERA against Top-10 opponents in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. The New York Yankees sit second on the year.

Back the Yankees to +100.

COVERS INTEL:Schlittler ranks in the 96th percentile in Pitcher Run Value this season.

Yankees vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

Scoring runs should feel like pulling teeth in this one.

The Phillies own a very underwhelming .296 wOBA and have struck out at the sixth-highest rate vs. righties in July. That should spell trouble against Schlittler, who ranks above the 90th percentile in both xwOBA and K%.

While the Yankees own excellent numbers against lefties this season, they have hit .204 with a 32.7K% during the month of July.

It’ll be tough to flip the switch against Luzardo, one of the most in-form pitchers in the majors.

Bet the Under to -125.

Yankees vs Phillies weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s with winds blowing in. Very minimal boost to the bats.

Yankees vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Yankees +115 | Phillies -135
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Yankees vs Phillies trend

The Yankees have hit the Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.30 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies.

How to watch Yankees vs Phillies and game info

Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

As has been the case for much of this season, the Orioles come into this weekend’s series vs. the Braves with a point to prove. Baltimore thought they proved they were ready to be playoff contenders by sweeping the Astros in Houston. That point was then undercut by losing two out of three in Fenway—though winning the series finale and ending the Red Sox’s 15-game winning streak was a nice consolation. 

Now, the O’s welcome another playoff team to Baltimore while looking to make up ground in the Wild Card race (and dissuade the front office from selling at the deadline). On paper, the Braves look like an intimidating foe, especially for an Orioles team that needs wins right now. 

Atlanta is four games in front of Philadelphia in a very competitive NL East, and has been on top of that division for basically the entire season. The Orioles, on the other hand, have struggled to stay out of the AL East basement most of the year, and were the last AL team to string together a four-game winning streak. 

However, the two teams have been heading in different directions of late. The once juggernaut-ish Braves have gone 20-22 across June and July, while seeing their offense struggle. Atlanta had one of the best lineups in baseball to begin the year, averaging 5.3 runs/game across the first two months of the season. During this recent skid, they’ve dropped to 4.6 runs/game across June and July. 

The offensive downturn has largely coincided with the injury to superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., who’s been on the IL since June 10th with a hamstring injury. The former NL MVP is currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A, and there’s an outside chance he could rejoin the Braves in Baltimore this weekend. 

The Orioles will need to overcome their own injury woes if they want to keep their recent hot streak going. The O’s are 11-5 in July and 8-2 in their last 10. However, the lineup is now without the likes of Blaze Alexander (broken hand), Adley Rutschman (left wrist inflammation) and Samuel Basallo (right shoulder inflammation). Christian Encarnacion-Strand has so far filled in admirably for Alexander, but backup catchers Sam Huff and Chadwick Tromp have yet to record a hit since rejoining the roster. 

The O’s have won two straight series against the Braves, sweeping them in Atlanta last season and taking two of three in Baltimore back in 2024. The O’s will hope to they can replicate last season’s offensive performance against Atlanta, with the Baltimore bats launching six home runs in the three-game sweep of the Braves. 

Game 1, Friday, July 24th, 7:05pm ET

Probable pitchers: TBD vs. RHP Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.70 ERA, 78 Ks)

Where to watch: MASN/MASN+

After reshuffling the rotation to give Kyle Bradish some more rest after signing his extension, the O’s have to come up with a creative solution for Friday’s starter. Cade Povich could get called up from Norfolk to make his first start in the big leagues since May 7th. The lefty has faced off with the Braves once before, tossing six shutout innings in a 4-2 Baltimore win. The O’s could also bring back Trey Gibson from the minors, or use Albert Suárez as an opener in a bullpen game. 

Grant Holmes pitched against Trevor Rogers last year in Atlanta, taking the loss despite a quality start. Holmes posted a final line of 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB and 5 Ks in a 2-1 Orioles win, with his only real mistake coming on a two-run home run from Jackson Holliday. Holmes has been similarly sharp of late, pitching to a 1.89 ERA over his last four starts. He doesn’t usually give Atlanta much length, though, as he averages less than five innings per start this season. 

Game 2, Saturday, July 25th, 7:05pm ET

Probable pitchers: LHP Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.28 ERA, 77 Ks) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (6-6, 4.06 ERA, 90 Ks)

Where to watch: MASN/MASN+

If you looked at Trevor Rogers’ stats for the season, you might think he’s having a down season across the board. If you’ve watched Trevor Rogers pitch recently, you’d know that he’s back to being the exact same pitcher that won MVO in 2025. 

Since the calendar turned to June, Rogers has a 1.69 ERA across eight starts while limiting opposing hitters to a .206 average. Each start also carries a little extra significance for Rogers, who is a pending free agent after the season. During the broadcast of Wednesday’s first game, Rogers gave an interview where he said extension talks have not started with the Orioles, but he really wants to stay in Baltimore. 

If the southpaw wants to convince the O’s to offer him an extension, he’ll need to reverse his career numbers against the Braves. In nine starts against Atlanta while with the Marlins, Rogers pitched to a 5.57 ERA while taking the loss in seven of the nine outings. He did dominate his former NL East rival last year with the Orioles, pitching 6.2 shutout innings with six Ks. 

Former All-Star Bryce Elder will oppose the Orioles’ Opening Day starter, looking to build some positive momentum. Elder, like the Braves, got off to a hot start this year but has since faded. Through his first 11 starts of the season, the 27-year-old right-hander had a 1.97 ERA and .190 average against. In eight starts since then, he’s allowed 12 home runs, put up a 7.65 ERA and given up a .321 average to opponents. Elder faced the Orioles once before, putting up a line of 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB and 4 Ks. 

Game 3, Sunday, July 26th, 1:35pm ET

Probable pitchers: RHP Brandon Young (8-2, 3.25 ERA, 74 Ks) vs. RHP Reynaldo López (4-3, 3.95 ERA, 60 Ks)

Where to watch: MASN/MASN+

Brandon Young avenged his worst start of the season last time out. After giving up 10 runs over four innings earlier this year vs. the Astros, Young pitched seven innings of one-run ball last Sunday in Houston. Young continues to be synonymous with winning for the O’s, with Baltimore going 13-3 in games started by the big Texan. 

Young has made significant strides this year when it comes to pitching at Camden Yards. Last season, in seven starts in front of the Birdland faithful, the right-hander had an 8.72 ERA and a .346 average against. This year in Baltimore, BY has a 3.08 ERA while holding opponents to a .258 average. The 27-year-old will also look to improve his numbers in Interleague play, as he comes into this matchup with a 5.02 ERA in nine starts against the National League. 

Looking to put a stop to Young’s hot streak is 2024 All-Star Reynaldo López. The 32-year-old Dominican missed most of last season with a shoulder injury and has split time between the rotation and bullpen this season. He just returned to the rotation full time a month ago, and in five starts since has a 4.84 ERA while averaging just over four innings per start. 

López has pitched in Baltimore five times before, limiting the O’s to a .203 average and putting up a 2.08 ERA. In his last visit to Camden Yards during his All-Star season, he tossed six shutout innings while limiting the Orioles to two hits and striking out eight. 

Let us know in the comments whether the Orioles will sweep the Braves, get swept or something in between.

Columbus Clippers 3, St. Paul Saints 4

Clippers fall to 51-47

Columbus looked like it had done enough to win, scoring a go-ahead run in the top of the ninth inning, but the bullpen couldn’t hold it.

Cooper Ingle went beast mode, going 4-for-5 from the leadoff position while Angel Genao went 2-for-4 with a walk and Juan Brito also went 2-for-4 with a double. Milan Tolentino walked twice and stole a base.

Starting pitcher Austin Peterson did his job, allowing two runs on eight hits with two strikeouts and a walk in 5.1 innings.

Ryan Webb added 1.2 scoreless, hitless frames and the recently-activated Carlos Hernandez added a perfect eighth inning before Jack Leftwich gave up three hits in the bottom of the ninth to take the loss and earn his first blown save of the season.

Akron RubberDucks 0, Altoona Curve 1

RubberDucks fall to 43-49

Josh Hartle pitched one of the best games of his career, but it wasn’t enough as Akron’s offense was a no-show on Thursday.

Hartle dominated, striking out eight and walking one in 5.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits. This was his second straight scoreless outing of at least five innings so hopefully he’s turning a corner in the second half.

Jay Driver was excellent in relief, adding 2.1 scoreless frames with four strikeouts. Unfortunately, Izaak Martinez gave up one run in the top of the ninth inning and Akron couldn’t answer.

Nolan Schubart reached base safely twice, going 1-for-3 with a walk. Aaron Walton also walked twice. Tyresse Turner went 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base.

Lake County Captains 15, Fort Wayne TinCaps 3

Captains improve to 52-37

Half of your offense has been promoted to Akron? No problem!

Rake County was at it again on Thursday. Crazy as it sounds, despite having position players Jaison Chourio, Luke Hill, Nolan Schubart, Bennett Thompson, Ryan Cesarini, Aaron Walton and Dean Curley all get promoted to Double-A, the team just continues to blast baseballs.

A whopping seven players in the lineup still have an OPS over .800.

Everyone got in on the action Thursday, with Juneiker Caceres leading the charge by going 3-for-6 with two doubles. He now has an OPS of 1.032 despite having been promoted a level recently.

Also standing out was Welbyn Francisca, who has been heating up big time. Francisca went 3-for-5 with a home run and a double. Jeffrey Mercedes also had a three-hit game, going 3-for-4 with a home run and a walk.

Jonah Advincula could have pouted about being demoted, but he is raking instead. He went 2-for-5 with a double, a walk and three stolen bases. Jace LaViolette also broke out of his recent slump, going 2-for-4 with a home run, a double and two walks.

Starting pitcher Will McCausland didn’t have his best stuff, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits in 3.0 innings. He struck out three and walked one.

Melkis Hernandez was sensational out of the bullpen. He struck out a whopping eight batters in 3.0 scoreless innings without walking anyone. Logan McGuire finished off the win with 2.0 scoreless frames.

Hill City Howlers 9, Delmarva Shorebirds 10 (F/8) Game 1
Hill City Howlers 5, Delmarva Shorebirds 13 Game 2

Hillcats fall to 40-53

In game one, catcher Reiner Herrera missed hitting for the cycle by a single, going 3-for-4 with a home run, a triple and a double.

Riley Nelson also had a terrific game, going 2-for-2 with two walks. Also homering were Cannon Peebles, who went 1-for-3 with a walk; and Luis De La Cruz, who went 1-for-4. Dauri Fernandez singled and walked, but was caught stealing twice.

Starting pitcher Aidan Major allowed four runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings with three strikeouts and no walks. He was relieved by Evan Chrest, who was tattooed for five runs in just 1.1 frames. The game was tied until the eighth inning when Javi Torres allowed the ghost runner to score to take the loss.

Hill City was in control of game two all the way until the final two innings.

Victor Izturis went 2-for-3 with a double and Riley Nelson tripled.

Starting pitcher Miguel Flores allowed four runs on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts in 5.0 innings. Luke Fernandez had a nightmare relief outing, allowing seven runs on five hits with three walks in just 1.1 frames.

Welcome to Friday A’s fans! We made it.

After a day off the club is back at it tonight, this time in Minnesota set to take on the Twins for a three-game weekend series.

The two clubs are in different spots heading into this weekend. While the Athletics have seen their playoff hopes evaporate over the past month, the Twins are still in the thick of things. At 51-53 they’re 4 1/2 games back of the AL Central lead but a much more manageable 2 1/2 back for the third and final Wild Card spot. That’s much better than many expected entering the season, but is it good enough to prevent them from selling?

The Twins would have a few interesting pieces if they decided to make players available. Starting pitcher Joe Ryan would instantly become the #2 starting pitching target on the trade market if the Twins were to make him available. Catcher Ryan Jeffers has been linked to every team that needs catching help and may even find himself on the move in a win-now move for the Twins. And then you have the talented but often-injured center fielder Byron Buxton, who is having his best season in years and would also demand a hefty prospect package to pry him out of Minnesota (though he’s said he won’t wave his no-trade clause).

That said, their owner has made public statements indicating he’d rather not sell off pieces and wave the white flag when they’re this close to a playoff spot. Whether they went into sell mode depended on how they did coming out of the break and they’ve gone 3-4 since. How they act at the deadline will be interesting to watch. Even if they elect not to sell off pieces, they’re not likely to be buyers either as they’re focused on the long-term right now. Now would be a great time for the A’s to get hot and play spoiler.

The A’s meanwhile are just about out of the playoff race and are likely fielding calls on players. They just lost two of three in Arizona and at 43-59 the idea of October baseball is a fantasy. How far the A’s go in selling this trade deadline will be interesting to watch. Are only short-term rentals available, or are any of the medium or long-term assets on the table? We have 11 days until the deadline.

Now looking ahead to this weekend’s series matchups. The A’s will send left-hander Jacob Lopez to the bump to kick off the series in the Twin Cities. Lopez made a successful return to the starting rotation in his most recent appearance, allowing just a pair of runs on just two hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings. The A’s will be hoping that the lefty can provide more length tonight without sacrificing those results. The Twins will counter Lopez with third-year right-hander Zebby Matthews, who is having a tough year with a 5.40 ERA in 12 starts.

After Lopez the A’s have not named a starter but we can still guess, right? The club is without J.T. Ginn for the immediate future so they’ll need a short-term option for the rotation. Right-hander Mason Barnett was recalled to take Ginn’s spot on the roster and his last appearance in any game was last Saturday so he’d be well rested for the start. Odds are it’s him getting the ball but if Lopez has a short outing tonight Mark Kotsay may need a long man outing from the righty and the club figures Saturday out when it comes around. We’re at that point in the year, folks. Minnesota isn’t much better though as they’ve yet to announce who’ll get the ball on Saturday either. This should be a fun one.

Then the series wraps on Sunday with a matchup of veterans featuring Jeffrey Springs and Joe Ryan. The lefty Springs had a tough first half and ended it on a low with a few less-than-stellar outings. He managed to bounce back in his first start out of the break and we’ll all be hoping he can continue that in the finale. Minnesota meanwhile has their ace in Ryan lined up for this start. While the right-hander has had a great season to date, he got ambushed for eight runs in his most recent start so maybe the A’s are catching him at the right time.

First pitch is at 5:10 tonight. Have a great day and weekend everyone!

A’s Coverage:

• A’s fall in extra innings 6-5 to Arizona
• Cuban’s investment group purchases minority stake in Athletics
• Hot Topic: Who Is The “Real Langeliers”?
• A’s Beat Diamondbacks 5-2
• A’s place rookie Joshua Kuroda-Grauer on injured list with ruptured testicle
• Passan: A’s ‘have zero desire’ to trade Shea Langeliers
• Another ‘step in the right direction’ for Lopez in hunt to regain rookie form
• Blogfather Saves The Day With Pearls Of Most Excellent Advice
• Thinking out loud: Mic’d up Cease, Langeliers work through 3-K 1st in ASG
• What will the Athletics do leading up to Trade Deadline after cold streak?
• A’s Add Next Wave of Prospects in 2026 Draft
• Athletics Get Hitting Help by Claiming Hot Bat off Waivers
• Former A’s top draft pick Muncy learning outfield with Aviators
• Langeliers’ 5-year journey from top prospect to All-Star starter
• Injuries Providing Cover For Some Inconvenient Truths
• Breaking Down the A’s Alarming Trends Heading into the Break
• Jamie Arnold can’t wait for the A’s future. Triple-A Vegas is another story.
• Langeliers savoring 1st All-Star start; injured Kurtz to enjoy homecoming
• Athletics Select Outfielder Drew Burress With 8th Overall Pick
• Athletics Select Left-hander Mason Edwards With 47th Overall Pick
• Athletics Select Gabe Gaeckle With 73rd Overall Pick
• A’s Select Jacob Dudan With 83rd Pick, Roman Martin With 111th Pick

MLB News and Interest:

• Mariners Reportedly Willing To Trade Emerson Hancock
• Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. could return from IL Friday vs. Orioles
• Pirates add bullpen depth by trading for Padres’ Ron Marinaccio
• Brewers Have Checked In On Tarik Skubal, Mason Miller
• Could Red Sox swing blockbuster deal for slugging SS?
• White Sox Looking For Catching Help
• Skubal says he wants to finish season with Tigers and win WS
• Contender or pretender? Division races shaping Deadline strategies
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Truth:

How do you guys feel about this rumor?

Not a surprise after his struggles. He’ll be back:

Interesing:

ICYMI:

Shortly after Steve Cohen bought the franchise, he shared his desire to turn the Mets (43-60) into an east coast version of the Dodgers (65-38). Simply put, that hasn’t happened yet, as the Mets have spent quite a bit of money on their major league payroll but haven’t been consistent when it comes to making the playoffs and have yet to win the National League East during Cohen’s tenure.

As per usual, the Dodgers are having a great season and considered one of the favorites to win the World Series. If they were to accomplish that feat, it’d make them back-to-back-to-back World Series winners, a rarity in Major League Baseball. And they’re doing just about everything well, as they’re third in baseball in scoring with 5.19 runs per game and the best team in baseball at run prevention with just 3.67 runs allowed per game.

Among Dodgers hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this year, Tommy Edman—who has exactly 100 plate appearances—leads the team with a 171 wRC+ that’s driven by his staggering .360 batting average and .439 batting average on balls in play. Among qualified hitters, Shohei Ohtani has been their best, though his 146 wRC+ is relatively pedestrian by his absurd standards. He’s recently taken a break from pitching, and whether or not he returns to his two-way role moving forward remains to be seen.

After Ohtani, Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman are in the 130s with their wRC+, and Dalton Rushing and Andy Pages are both comfortably above league average at the plate. Miguel Rojas and Will Smith are hovering just above league average, too. And all of those hitters are doing plenty to make up for the fact that Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker each have a 94 wRC+, while Teoscar Hernández has a 92 wRC+.

The Dodgers’ bullpen is the seventh-best in baseball this year with a 3.77 ERA. Their rotation ranks second with a 3.42 ERA. No team is flawless, but it’s a lot harder to find flaws when you’re looking at the Dodgers.

As for the Mets, they’re coming off a 3-3 road trip against the Phillies and Brewers, a perfectly cromulent outcome for a team that’s having one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history. When it comes to run prevention, the Mets are below league average with 4.69 runs allowed per game. And their lineup has been the fourth-worst in baseball with 4.07 runs scored per game.

Whether or not Juan Soto is fully healthy is something we’ll find out during this series. The Mets gave him the day off in their series finale in Milwaukee on Wednesday ahead of their off day yesterday, refusing to even pinch hit him in a couple of late and close spots where he might’ve swung the game in the Mets’ favor.

Anything better than getting swept this weekend would be a relatively welcome outcome here. But if you’re feeling optimistic, hey, maybe the Mets will sweep the Dodgers. And hopefully it won’t be too much longer before the franchise looks like the perennial contender that Steve Cohen set out to turn it into.

Friday, July 24: Sean Manaea vs. Roki Sasaki, 7:10 PM EDT on WPIX

Manaea (2026): 79.2 IP, 81 K, 26 BB, 12 HR, 4.74 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 116 ERA-

Considering how his season started, it’s impressive that Manaea’s are this decent. His most recent start, during which he faced the Phillies, wasn’t so good, but he has a 4.14 ERA since the beginning of June. That’s still disappointing given the contract he signed with the Mets ahead of the 2025 season, but if the Mets’ lineup were better, the team would probably be winning a decent chunk of his starts while he’s looking like a serviceable starting pitcher.

Sasaki (2026): 86.2 IP, 85 K, 34 BB, 19 HR, 4.98 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 118 ERA-

While it often feels like the Dodgers can do no wrong, the 24-year-old Sasaki struggled in limited work in 2025 after coming over from Japan and has either been slightly worse or slightly better than that this year, depending on whether you prefer ERA or FIP—or another ERA estimator.

Saturday, July 25: Nolan McLean vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 7:15 PM EDT on FOX

McLean (2026): 113.1 IP, 135 K, 41 BB, 10 HR, 3.34 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 81 ERA-

It would’ve been great to see McLean in the Cy Young mix in the National League this year, but the fact that he isn’t really has just as much to do with how great some of the starting pitchers in the league have been as it does with McLean himself. After some struggles earlier in the season inflated his ERA, he’s recovered very nicely, as he has a 2.11 ERA in eight starts since the beginning of June. He’ll face the Dodgers’ best pitcher of this series, but he is clearly the Mets’ ace at the moment.

Yamamoto (2026): 119.2 IP, 113 K, 25 BB, 13 HR, 2.78 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 66 ERA-

While his peripherals look very similar to McLean’s, Yamamoto is sporting an ERA that’s a half-run better. He’s also not really in the Cy Young race at the moment, but he is in the top ten in ERA among qualified starting pitchers in the National League. It’d take slip-ups by Jacob Misiorowski and Chris Sale for anyone else to really have a shot, but if those two do falter, Yamamoto could work his way up into that mix. Now in his third season in Major League Baseball, the 27-year-old has really been a boon to a Dodgers team that was already very good before his arrival.

Sunday, July 26: Freddy Peralta vs. Emmet Sheehan, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY

Peralta (2026): 109.2 IP, 110 K, 46 BB, 17 HR, 5.01 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 122 ERA-

Even if you came into the season without the expectation that Peralta would be the ace the Mets made him out to be when they traded for him, you’d be pretty disappointed in what he’s done in his time in Queens. Over his last six starts—an arbitrary selection of endpoints, but still—he has an 8.44 ERA. Over the last three of those starts, it’s been a 6.28 ERA. Ideally he’ll make a couple of better starts before the trade deadline, but facing the Dodgers this weekend obviously doesn’t make that easy.

Sheehan (2026): 87.2 IP, 99 K, 27 BB, 17 HR, 5.13 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 122 ERA-

Coming off an excellent 2025 season that saw him throw 73.1 innings for the Dodgers and finish with a 2.82 ERA and a 2.93 FIP, Sheehan was a pitcher to watch coming into the 2026 season. The 26-year-old hasn’t lived up to those lofty expectations, though, and like Peralta, he’s struggled recently. Over his last six starts, Sheehan has a 6.04 ERA.

Thursday was a rare quiet day across the American League, with just three games going on and only two of them on our radar. The Yankees were one of many that had the day off as they travelled to Philadelphia, so they had nothing to do but see if the Blue Jays could do them a favor and get them a half-game closer to the Rays. Surprisingly, they were up to the task.

Tampa Bay Rays (59-43) 1, Toronto Blue Jays (47-56) 3

The Rays were on the verge of sweeping this four-game series in Toronto, having taken the first three games with Wednesday’s 4-2 result being the only close one compared to two blowouts. Shane Bieber had other ideas in the finale, tossing a gem to give Toronto a chance. He only picked up three strikeouts on the night, but he kept baserunners from running rampant thanks to some good defense and enough soft contact on top of not walking a single batter in his seven innings of work.

Tampa Bay tested him in the first inning, Yandy Díaz leading off with a six-pitch at-bat that led to a pop-up before Jonathan Aranda took a golf swing at a ball down below the zone. He still managed to drive it, going all the way to the warning track in the right-center gap, but Miles Straw had a beat on it from the jump and managed to track it down before colliding with the wall. Junior Caminero lined out, and that clean first inning set Toronto up to do something they’d rarely done all series: take a lead.

Casey Legumina got the start as an opener for the Rays, and he got two quick outs to open the frame. Ernie Clement attacked a first-pitch slider at the top of the zone for a single to start a rally though, and George Springer worked an eight-pitch walk to keep the pressure on. Alejandro Kirk stared at a slider that landed dead-center for strike one and then fought off a couple of heaters well out of the strike zone before getting the slider again, and got another mistake pitch from Legumina. This time he swung, and even though he only got a weak dribbler out of it luck was on his side — Caminero came charging at the ball but couldn’t field it, letting it slip behind him and briefly losing track of the ball. Clement had the play developing right in front of him and never stopped hustling as he rounded third, easily scoring despite the ball never leaving the infield.

The second inning was light work for Bieber, who induced three easy grounders around the infield. Toronto worked a leadoff walk in the bottom half but erased it immediately on a double play, sending us to the top of the third where Tampa saw their first real chance of the game. Bieber started off with two more grounders for outs, but he threw a mistake fastball down the middle to Hunter Feduccia that got ripped to right field for a double. The top of the order was back up and Díaz didn’t get cheated on a knuckle-curve low in the zone, sending a single out to right to tie the game at one apiece. Toronto picked up their pitcher though, responding against the new pitcher Ian Seymour with a leadoff double in the bottom of the third off the bat of Yohendrick Piñango and scoring him on a Springer single to left.

The fourth could have been déjà vu as the Rays made two quick outs before collecting another double, this time off the bat of Jonny DeLuca, but Chandler Simpson flew out on the first pitch to end that threat as quickly as it materialized. Bieber and Seymour traded outs until the seventh inning, when Straw worked a seven-pitch walk aided by a successful ABS challenge. Straw stole second base to put himself in scoring position for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and though the Jays superstar has been having one of the worst seasons of his career he came through with an RBI single here to give them some insurance.

Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland were tasked with taking the eighth and ninth innings respectively after Bieber’s night ended, and both were more than capable of neutralizing Tampa’s bats. Varland ended the night with back-to-back punchouts to secure the save and prevent the sweep, giving Toronto some reprieve in what’s been a lost season for the AL champs. More importantly for the standings, the Rays’ loss brings them back to two games ahead of the Yankees for first place in the AL East.

Other Games

Cleveland Guardians (54-50) 1, Minnesota Twins (51-53) 3 (12 innings): The Twins just refuse to go down, splitting a four-game set with the Guardians after losing the first two games of the series. Wednesday was a barnburner of a game that saw 16 runs cross the plate, but this time we’d see each team only score once through 11 innings of stellar pitching. Gavin Williams got the start for Cleveland and delivered an ace performance, tossing seven innings and striking out 11 batters while allowing just two hits for no runs. He even had an immaculate inning in the fourth, overpowering the Twins’ batters. Taj Bradley wasn’t quite as sharp but he got the job done, matching Williams in length with seven innings under his belt and just a lone run coming on a Patrick Bailey solo shot in the fifth inning.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, things got messy as soon as their bullpen factored into the game. Hunter Gaddis relieved Williams to start the eighth and promptly walked Royce Lewis, who then stole second base. Gaddis picked up a strikeout but issued another walk to Luke Keaschall, and with a pinch-hitter in Alan Roden coming Guardians manager Stephen Vogt chose to go back to the ‘pen summoning Cade Smith. The switch didn’t work, Roden smacking the first pitch he saw from Smith up the middle for a game-tying RBI single.

The Guardians still had a chance to right their wrongs, getting two batters on in the ninth inning against Yoendrys Gómez, but Kyle Manzardo struck out to strand them. To extras we went, and the Manfred Runner surprisingly proved ineffective in the 10th and 11th as both sides went down without incident. In the 12th inning the tide finally came crashing down though, Trevor Larnach poking a single through the infield to score a run followed by Keaschall also singling to the left side to make it 3-1 Minnesota. Jack Anderson got the assignment to convert the save and did just that, allowing a walk but escaping without even endangering the insurance run.

The Twins didn’t start off hot out of the All-Star break, but working their way into a split with Cleveland has given them a life preserver. They sit three games back of Cleveland for second place in the AL Central and are 2.5 games behind Boston for the final Wild Card slot, still well within reach if they choose to push for it. Not great news if you’re the Yankees, as they would certainly like the Twins on the seller’s side of the Trade Deadline, but there’s still a week and change to go.

Hello everyone and happy Friday!

The M’s are back in action this afternoon, traveling to Arlington to face the Rangers. What would you need to see from the club’s upcoming road trip to Texas and Los Angeles to consider it a success?

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, the Mariners parted ways with assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes.
• Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic provided the latest trade deadline intel regarding the Mariners, who are reportedly listening to offers on Luis Castillo and Emerson Hancock.
• Ryan Blake wonders what happened to Josh Naylor’s power stroke this year.

Around the league…

• Tigers ace left-hander Tarik Skubal has voiced a preference to stay with the Tigers as trade rumors swirl.
• Rintaro Sasaki — the Japanese slugger who made headlines a few years back when he chose to attend Stanford rather than enter the NPB draft — explained his reasoning for signing with the Marlins after being drafted in the 8th round, rather than heading back home to compete in NPB.
• Keith Law at The Athletic updated his list of the top 70 prospects in baseball, and he’s got some awfully good things to say about Kade Anderson. ($)
• Fangraphs updated its list of the top 100 prospects in advance of the trade deadline.
• How exactly does a three-team trade come to be? Stephen J. Nesbitt and Zack Meisel at The Athletic talked to some architects of recent three-team deals — including Jerry Dipoto — for a behind-the-scenes look.
• Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs checked back in on the Red Sox now that they’ve triumphantly re-entered the playoff picture.
• Former Angels shortstop José Iglesias is headed to Broadway to join the cast of Buena Vista Social Club. Evan Drellich at The Athletic has the story. ($)
• José Caballero continues to make enemies of umpires around the league.

• Passing along a plug here to help a local Harleem baseball icon’s family pay for his funeral expenses.

Diamondbacks News

(MLB.com) Super sub Locklear ‘always ready’ as first HR of 2026 powers surging D-backs

“Not easy to do what he did,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “He comes to the ballpark, he’s always preparing to play. I know that. But the lineup goes out the night before, and there’s a couple things he’s probably going to come here and work on. And all of the sudden transitions an hour before the ballgame starts and he’s going to be starting at first base. I think he’s got the right mindset. He’s always ready.”

(Arizona Sports) Tyler Locklear’s 1st home run of 2026 powers Diamondbacks to impressive win over Cardinals

The Diamondbacks have now won nine of their last 11 games and are averaging 7.3 runs during their last 10 games.

Locklear went 3-for-5 Thursday with a double in addition to his long ball. He’s now batting .385 (5-for-13) since his callup.

Del Castillo, Moreno and Vargas all joined Locklear with three hits apiece, and Nolan Arenado contributed two hits off the bench.

(SI.com) The Diamondbacks May Have Just Found Their First Base Solution

And when the Diamondbacks recalled first baseman Tyler Locklear on July 17, even his exceptional Triple-A hot streak offered little reason to assume he’d produce at a level he’s never shown success at before.

But that hasn’t been quite the case.

(Burn City Sports) Corbin Carroll’s 12th triple of the season puts him in rare company

Carroll reached 55 career triples in just 587 games. By comparison, Marte and Trout each needed more than 1,500 games to reach that same total. The feat further establishes the 25-year-old Diamondbacks outfielder as one of the game’s premier extra-base threats, combining elite contact, speed and power.

Carroll’s pace doesn’t just stand out among active players — it also puts him alongside one of baseball’s greatest legends.

According to Sarah Langs, Carroll is just the second player in MLB history to record at least 55 triples and 85 home runs through his first 587 career games, joining only Lou Gehrig.

MLB News

(Yahoo! Sports) Tarik Skubal says he regrets not getting offseason elbow MRI, admits he might be making his final home start at Comerica Park

The Detroit Tigers ace found himself clearing the air Thursday after a discourse outbreak around his decision to not undergo an MRI last offseason, which could have revealed an issue in his elbow at a more convenient time. Instead, he underwent a novel treatment for loose bodies in May and missed a month and a half.

In comments to The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen published Wednesday, Skubal recalled feeling like “something was wrong” in his pitching elbow in January. He said he chose to ignore the symptoms rather than undergo the MRI.

[Ed. Note] I recognize that the Diamondbacks were never going to be in on the Skubal sweepstakes this offseason, but this makes me glad they aren’t. To risk so much over a one off arbitration hearing? Just wildly irresponsible.

(ClutchPoints) Royals’ Salvador Perez asks police to remove fan from jail after home run ball incident

Anyone entering the fountains is subject to immediate arrest, transportation to the police station, and prosecution, according to the Royals’ ballpark rules.

Following the game, Perez asked authorities to show leniency.

“Please, police, just take care of the job please and send him home,” he said. “If I was him, I’d maybe jump too and try to get that ball, so please. And thank you for the hard work in trying to get that ball.”.

(Yahoo! Sports) Mark Cuban’s firm buys minority stake in Athletics ahead of move to Las Vegas

Mark Cuban is expanding his sports portfolio.

Harbinger Sports Partners, the private equity firm backed by the former Dallas Mavericks majority owner, has purchased a minority stake of undisclosed size in the Athletics ahead of their move to Las Vegas, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Mick Akers.

If you’d told me on March 1st that Kerry Carpenter would be batting 6th on July 20th, I would have assumed the Tigers had the best offense in baseball, or at least that a lefty was on the mound. I would certainly have been wrong.

After years of menacing right-handed pitchers from the top of Detroit’s lineup – his 132 wRC+ from 2024-25 was tied for 23rd, among sluggers like Pete Alonso or Matt Olson – 2026 has been more of a struggle for Detroit’s resident cult favorite. Over 76 games so far, almost every stat has gone the wrong direction, leading to an underwhelming 93 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR. This is not the Kerry Carpenter from the 2024 ALDS. If the Tigers want to see the 2026 ALDS, they’ll almost certainly need him back in form, so let’s start trying to figure this out.

The first thing to note: while injuries are part of the story, he doesn’t look injured in any observable way. Yes, he missed 3 weeks with a shoulder sprain after he ran into the wall on an insider the parker. Yes, the play was as ugly as you remember. No, I won’t show it to you; I’ll spare Kerry the embarrassment. However, that doesn’t seem to tell the whole story, as neither his sprint speed (27 ft/s) nor his bat speed (71.8 mph) have changed at all from his best seasons. It’s good that he isn’t playing through a nagging injury, but it also means a few days off won’t likely have him magically feeling better, either. If they want to fix Carpenter, they probably need to start with his gameplan at the plate.

Carpenter’s approach has typically been to swing often and hit the ball really hard. He didn’t want to walk, but by swinging early and often, he frequently ended the at-bat before he could strike out. Sure, he chased a lot, but he crushed baseballs and made a lot of contact with a fly ball heavy profile anyways, so who really cared? Unfortunately, either by choice or by chance, Carpenter has seemingly abandoned that approach in 2026 to disastrous results.

To summarize: compared to 2025, Carpenter is seeing fewer strikes, swinging at a smaller proportion of those strikes, striking out more, and making worse contact, all at the same time. On their own, none of those are good,, but combined, they’re pretty disastrous. This new approach has dropped him from 51st to 103rd in barrel rate, and his small improvements in walk rate just haven’t offset the power drop.

So the symptoms are obvious. Carpenter’s entirely out of sorts at the plate, I just don’t know why. Is it a conscious approach change after only a 3.9% walk rate last year? Is he entirely focused on ABS and challenges and letting that throw him off his gameplan? Unfortunately, I couldn’t say from here. All I know is Carpenter went from one of the most feared sluggers when you challenge him in the zone, to a near pushover. He just has rarely been on time, and his distinctive swing, heavily weighted on his back leg and looking to snap the bat off that platform, has looked out of whack most of the year.

Unfortunately, it gets even worse. For some reason, Carpenter has spent more than 60% of his games in the outfield. That is an unwise decision. Despite a strong arm and close to average speed, Carpenter is rating as one of the absolute worst fielders in the game. He’s only played in the outfield for 330 innings – the season’s had close to 900 – and yet is tied for the 15th-worst defender at any position with -7 OAA. If, for some reason, he played every inning of every game, he’d rate about as well as Andrew Vaughn did in right field that one year. I cannot stress how little of a compliment that is. Roughly average offense and bottom of the barrel defense is not a winning combination.

Now, Carpenter’s starting from such a high place that even his fall from grace has him near average at the dish. That includes 27 straight at-bats without a hit before his single on Wednesday; before his dreadful July, he had a 120 wRC+ and a concerning strikeout rate, so the tools have all been there at points of 2026. Only in June did he really break out into good Carpenter territory for a sustained stretch. Unfortunately, as the Tigers learned in May, one bad month can pretty much ruin the whole season. To force the issue in the weeklong sprint to the deadline, and through what will be a months long chase to the finish line even if things go well, they’ll need Carpenter to start slugging again. He might have to start turning it loose more aggressively to do so.