Category: Baseball

Hoping to even the series in a duel of average-ish pitching, Atlanta is batting Mauricio Dubon at leadoff, starting Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and DHing Jorge Mateo, with Sandy Leon starting at catcher…whoof. This lineup desperately needs the return of Drake Baldwin and Ronald Acuna. Austin Riley remembering how to hit like a star player and Sean Murphy returning sure would help too.

I will update this once the Mets post their lineup.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Saturday, June 13, 4:10 p.m. EDT

Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLBTV

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The St. Louis Cardinals continue their weekend in Minneapolis as it’s game 2 versus the Minnesota Twins Saturday. Matthew Liberatore will make the start for the Cardinals while LHP Connor Prielipp will be on the mound for the Twins. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm central time at Target Field and the broadcast will be handled by Cardinals.tv. Note that JJ Wetherholt has the day off and Masyn Winn is leading off Saturday.

Shohei Ohtani returned to the lineup after missing a game with left knee inflammation as the Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar is batting leadoff for their Saturday, June 13 matchup against the Chicago White Sox.

Ohtani was pulled from the team’s game Thursday at Pittsburgh and underwent an MRI on his knee Friday in Chicago. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters the scan came back clean and he expected, for now, Ohtani would make his next scheduled pitching start Wednesday.

Roberts initially said there was also pain in the back of Ohtani’s knee, but walked that assessment back. The Dodgers lost the first game of the three-game series 8-6 Friday night.

After what was for him a pedestrian start at the plate, Ohtani has been on a one-month tear since May 12, with seven homers and a .412/.508/.753 line in 118 plate appearances. He's also posted a 1.06 ERA in 11 starts, which would lead the National League if Ohtani had two more innings pitched to qualify.

Now in his third year with the Dodgers, Ohtani won a World Series and an MVP award in each of the first two seasons of his record-setting $700 million deal.

Dodgers lineup today vs. White Sox

Today’s #Dodgers lineup at White Sox: pic.twitter.com/dVBnxFeaex

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) June 13, 2026

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The Toronto Blue Jays have been the kryptonite of New York Yankees star right-hander Cam Schlittler in his young career. 

The Jays’ bats profile well to continue that dominance this afternoon, making Schlittler Over 5.5 hits allowed an attractive play at +120.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Yankees Predictions and MLB Picks for this Saturday, June 13 matchup. 

Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions

Yankees vs Blue Jays best bet: Cam Schlitter Over 5.5 hits (+120)

Cam Schlittler is having a Cy Young worthy season, but has struggled against the Toronto Blue Jays throughout his career, which has led to his market being mispriced. 

I expect the Jays to go over 5.5 hits on Schlittler today. 

Toronto’s current lineup owns a .339 batting average, earning 28 hits against the New York Yankees starter through four games, profiling well against his aggressive strike-throwing style and pitch mix.

Schlittler has a high zone rate and uses a mix of four-seamers, cutters, and sinkers. 

As a team, the Blue Jays own a .272 average (8th) with a 41% hard-hit rate (5th) against these pitches.

Schlittler has eclipsed this hit total in 3-of-4 career starts against Toronto, with the lone other start only lasting 1 2/3 innings, where he still gave up five hits.

I’d play Schlitter Over 5.5 hits down to +110. 

COVERS INTEL: Toronto is averaging 13.2 H/9 against Schlittler in his career. 

Yankees vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

We'll continue to bank on a productive day for the Blue Jay bats in today’s SGP with Ernie Clement and Jesus Sanchez hitting props.

Clement has 18 hits over his last 12 games, eclipsing this total in 10 of them. He profiles well against Schlittler as a contact hitter, and it has led him to being 4-for-9 against the Yankee starter in his career.  

For the last leg of this SGP, I’ll bet on Sanchez Over 0.5 hits. He owns a .330 average and a .370 BABIP against Schlittler’s pitch mix. He’s also eclipsed this total in four of his last five starts and is 3-for-5 career against the Yankees starter. 

Yankees vs Blue Jays SGP

• Schlittler Over 5.5 hits
• Clement Over  0.5 hits
• Sanchez Over 0.5 hits

Yankees vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+475)

Kazuma Okamoto leads the Jays with 14 homers this season and hits Schlittler's pitch mix well with a 60% hard-hit rate, to go along with a 9.7% barrel rate. 

This positions him well for success today as the Yankee starter does get barreled up quite often, while also ranking in the 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate.

However, despite giving up the hard contact, Schlittler does keep the ball in the yard, allowing only four home runs in his 14 starts this season. 

Therefore, I’ll be making this a half-unit wager today.

Yankees vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: New York -125 | Toronto +105
• Run line: New York -1.5 (+140) | Toronto +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5 

Yankees vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Yankees vs Blue Jays and game info

Yankees vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Yankees vs Blue Jays weather

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CHICAGO — After battling knee inflammation the past couple days, Shohei Ohtani was back in the Dodgers’ lineup Saturday.

With a bang, too.

After being removed early from Thursday’s game in Pittsburgh because of a swollen knee, then sitting out Friday’s series-opener against the White Sox to get treatment on the issue, Ohtani not only returned to his customary spot as DH and leadoff hitter in the Dodgers’ batting order, but needed just two pitches to hit a leadoff home run deep to right field.

The blast was Ohtani’s 14th of the season, his fifth of the leadoff variety, and marked the third-straight game he’s played in which he’s gone deep.

So much for concern over his previously ailing knee.

“Today,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said before first pitch, “he feels great.”

From the start, Roberts had insisted Ohtani’s injury was minor. He believed it was unrelated to the knee surgery the two-way star had in 2019 to address a rare congenital condition.

Still, the fact Ohtani had to leave one game, then miss another, raised some concerns about a potentially more severe issue.

“We took him out of the game the other night just for precautionary reasons,” Roberts said. “[But we have] all the confidence that he can go out there and hit, feel good, not regress at all.”

There was no obvious indication on Thursday night that Ohtani was dealing with discomfort, which included some swelling in the back of his knee, not any one incident that Ohtani could pinpoint to the training staff for having caused it.

Roberts said the club decided to be “proactive” by taking Ohtani out of Thursday’s game.

The same calculus applied to his off day on Friday, even though imaging on Ohtani’s knee had come back clean.

After Friday’s loss at Rate Field, Roberts said he was optimistic about having Ohtani back in the lineup Saturday. Earlier in the day, he said he still expects the superstar to make his next scheduled pitching start next Wednesday, as well.

“The swelling [in his knee] is gone,” Roberts said.

Now, the Dodgers will be hoping the issue is in the past.

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Injuries and ineffectiveness continue to plague a former ace.

Braves righty Spencer Strider landed on the IL on Saturday with right elbow inflammation, the team announced, one day after allowing seven runs in three-plus innings to the Mets in a 7-5 loss.

Strider had been slated for an MRI on Friday and exited after a noticeable dip in velocity. This is his second stint on the injured list this year, and he exits the 26-man roster with a 5.31 ERA.

“It doesn’t look great as we stand here, right now,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said Friday night, according to MLB.com.

Strider exited Friday’s game with right arm soreness after walking the leadoff batter in the fourth inning, having already allowed six runs at that point.

While his velocity has dipped since over the past two years, Strider averaged a single-game career-low 93.7 mph with his four-seam fastball Friday.

“[Strider] talked about how his shoulder and elbow weren’t feeling very good. And he wasn’t even aware of the drop in velocity,” Weiss told reporters, per MLB.com. “(When we got out there to the mound), he said, ‘What is it?’ Yeah, at that point, there’s no point to go on.”

This is the latest blow in a rough three-season stretch for a pitcher who had once been one of the sport’s premier fireballers.

Strider went 32-10 with a 3.37 ERA across his first three seasons from 2021-23, including a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting in 2023.

He needed Tommy John surgery after just two starts in 2024, and he returned last year to make 23 starts.

His fastball dipped from 97.2 mph in 2023 to 95.5 mph in 2025, per Baseball Savant, resulting in a dip from his league-leading 13.5 strikeouts-per-nine-innings mark in 2023 to 9.4.

Strider posted a 4.45 ERA, his worst ERA for any full season.

This season began with Strider opening the year on the injured list after suffering a left oblique muscle strain, and he provided eight overall ineffective starts after returning.

The team recalled Anthony Molina to fill his roster spot.

“He’s been through a lot … in the past few years trying to work his way back,” Weiss said, per MLB.com. “And we’ve seen some glimpses of it. He’s done a nice job for us this year, and there was a lot of hope. We saw him in the outing he had in L.A., [he] was just lights out. He looked just like old Spencer.”

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Fresh off an opening-game victory, the Chicago White Sox look to protect home field once again on Saturday afternoon at Rate Field.

Standing in their way is a massive pitching mismatch, as the Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to the stellar Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Given the clear edge on the mound for L.A., my Dodgers vs. White Sox predictions favor the road favorites to cover the spread.

Read on for more analysis and to get my free MLB picks for Saturday, June 13.

Who will win Dodgers vs White Sox today: Dodgers -1.5 (-117)

Los Angeles Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto is getting batters to chase on 34.3% of their swings while maintaining a walk rate of just 5.1%. He’s also generating a 47.3% ground ball rate, which plays well against a Chicago White Sox lineup that hits grounders 44.2% of the time.

White Sox starter Sean Burke has a 5.40 ERA over his last six starts, and will have trouble turning things around against a Dodgers lineup leading the majors with a .345 wOBA. The Dodgers are the pick to cover the run line, and I’d take them to do so at -130 or better.

COVERS INTEL: The White Sox lead the majors in whiff rate at 27.9%, a troubling number against Yamamoto, who is getting batters to whiff on 29.5% of their swings.

Dodgers vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-113)

With two teams that have powerful offenses, the total is a bit high at 8.5 runs today. Yamamoto has only allowed a total of three runs over his last four starts (spanning 27.1 innings), and Burke should at least compete against the Dodgers thanks to his arsenal of pitches.

Burke relies on his four-seam fastball and curveball, throwing them a combined 59% of the time. Los Angeles only pulls those pitches in the air 17.2% of the time against righties, which will limit the damage their lineup can do. I’m taking the Under today at -120 or better.

Dodgers vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -186 | White Sox +178
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-117) | White Sox +1.5 (+113)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)

Dodgers vs White Sox trend

The Dodgers are 3-0 in Yamamoto’s last three starts, winning each game by at least four runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. White Sox.

How to watch Dodgers vs White Sox and game info

Dodgers vs White Sox latest injuries

Dodgers vs White Sox weather

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You are still singularly focused on Cincinnati Reds baseball, and for that I applaud you (to a degree).

They’ve lost key player after key player to injuries. They’ve nosedived from first place to dead last in the National League Central. They’ve found ways to lose that will make you absolutely rip out every hair on your head that you haven’t ripped out while watching them over previous years.

Yet here you are, loyal Reds fan. Here you are reading about a Saturday afternoon game between the Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks that’s taking place during the first weekend of the world’s biggest sporting event.

That’s fandom.

The Reds, to their limited credit, appear to have shaken the lineup a little bit after last night’s frustration. Not anything super serious – there were no promotions or demotions – just a handful of tinkers that manager Terry Francona surely hopes can light a fire under this underperforming group.

Edwin Arroyo will hit leadoff tonight and play shortstop, as Matt McLain – who’s still hitting 9th – swaps over to 2B for the game. Noelvi Marte, who homered last night, will get a start in CF this afernoon. Spencer Steer will slide out to RF, and Blake Dunn will start on the pine tonight after last night’s unbelievably forgettable 9th inning.

All that will be behind Rhett Lowder, who’ll start having allowed 13 BB and 11 ER across 7.1 IP over his last three starts combined. Woof!

First pitch is set for 4:10 PM ET, and it’s back on Reds.tv after Friday’s Apple TV coverage.

Here’s how the Reds will line up to start:

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The Kansas City Royals are short favorites against the Houston Astros on Saturday night, and I’m laying the small moneyline price.

Noah Cameron gives Kansas City the cleaner starting-pitching profile, while Mike Burrows’ low-strikeout, contact-heavy profile gives the Royals enough scoring upside. 

Here are my Astros vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks for June 13.

Who will win Astros vs Royals today: Royals moneyline (-125)

This is a matchup of two pitchers that are trending in different directions. I'm backing the Kansas City Royals, who have the better pitcher by a sizable gap in this matchup. I'd play them to -135.

Houston Astros SP Mike Burrows has a4.72 xERA and a .338 xwOBA, which creates too many balls in play against a lineup with real top-end damage from Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone.

Royals SP Noah Cameron is not dominant, but his 3.98 xERA and 6.2% walk rate are cleaner than Burrows’ profile.

COVERS INTEL:Burrows is bottom-fourth percentile in fastball run value, and Kansas City’s two best bats both own 52%+ hard-hit rates.

Astros vs Royals Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+100)

I have slightly more conviction on the Over than a side and would play to 10 at even money.

Although I expect Kansas City to eventually get the win, it won't come without trouble. Cameron has allowed a 41.0% hard-hit rate and 9.3% barrel rate, which is dangerous against an Astros lineup with plenty of power, particularly considering the current form of Yordan Alvarez. 

Burrows is the bigger trigger for a variety of reasons, the most pressing being his bottom 20th percentile of most hard-hit metrics paired with looming negative regression.

Astros vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Astros +105 | Royals -125
• Run line: Astros +1.5 | Royals -1.5 
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Astros vs Royals trend

The Royals have covered the F5 Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 22% ROI)

How to watch Astros vs Royals and game info

Astros vs Royals latest injuries

Astros vs Royals weather

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By now, it’s safe to say that third baseman Ryan McMahon has met expectations on the defensive end since landing in New York via trade last year. The offense, however, has been a big problem so far, as Sam Chapman recently pointed out. Last year, the third baseman posted an 84 wRC+ with the Bombers, and he was at 79 before Friday’s game against the Blue Jays. That’s actually not that far from his career mark of 88, but New York always expects more from its players.

There might be some light at the end of the tunnel, though. From May 19th until Wednesday, McMahon has turned things around to some extent, and the numbers show it. Over that span, the infielder is hitting .304/.319/.587 with four home runs and a 150 wRC+ in 47 plate appearances. Has he turned a corner? Is that kind of performance sustainable? Let’s examine his profile and what’s under the hood.

The short answer is no, because McMahon is definitely not a 150-wRC+ player. Life, however, is full of grays, as things don’t always have to be black or white. So the answer to the original question could be that some of his gains could be sustained over time. For example, McMahon boasts an 89th percentile hard-hit rate this year, at 50 percent. That means half of his batted balls leave his bat at a minimum of 95 mph, which makes them much harder to field cleanly. We don’t need to tell you that hitting the ball hard leads to success.

However, even if he hits the ball hard consistently, McMahon is in the 19th percentile in launch angle sweet spot, which are batted balls hit with launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees. If he could live between those two numbers more often, we would be more inclined to believe in a full-on breakout.

Another roadblock to continued success is plate discipline. Even during his hot stretch in the aforementioned span, McMahon is walking just 2.1 percent of the time and striking out at a 34 percent clip (last night’s game not included). That’s hard to stomach and doesn’t bode well for the future.

If you want to know whether what he’s currently doing can be sustainable or not, the wOBA and xwOBA gap might give us an idea. It’s not the be-all, end-all, but it helps us understand where we are. Since May 19th, the lefty hitter boasts a .389 wOBA, but a .349 xwOBA. It means that he is overperforming a bit, but the newfound power has made a difference for the better. The .040 gap says that he’s playing a bit over his head, but the xwOBA on itself isn’t bad at all.

McMahon can hit the ball over the fence, and it’s not just short-porch cheapies to right field at home:

To sum up, McMahon is still wildly inconsistent and keeps striking out a lot, but at least he has shown much more power since May 19th. There’s still a lot of work to do in the plate discipline department, but if you ask the Yankees, they would probably take the over-the-fence power even if it comes with precious few walks and lots of whiffs. The Yankees sure would be happy if McMahon could be an 85-95 wRC+ hitter with elite third base defense and consistent 20-25-homer power. Heck, you can even throw the ‘consistent’ part away, because it might be unrealistic.

Rangers making a move for Hearts boss Derek McInnes if Danny Rohl leaves for Red Bull Salzburg would be a "no-brainer", according to BBC Scotland chief sports writer Tom English.

The Ibrox club have reportedly asked Hearts for permission to speak to McInnes as Rohl seemingly edges closer to an Ibrox exit.

Speaking on BBC Sportsound, English said: "If Rangers are looking for a manager, Derek McInnes is a no-brainer. I think it's an obvious call.

"He moved to Hearts and almost won the league in his first season. He's very experienced, a gnarled pro in Scotland, there's nothing he doesn't know about this league. His worth ethic is through the roof.

"He would be a very good fit for Rangers. They will spend money this summer and I just think it makes sense.

"I don't think Jamestown Analytics - who are obviously hugely influential at Hearts - would shed any tears because they're quite a clinical operation. If a player or manager leaves it's, right, who's next? They're very focused and don't dwell on people coming and going."

Former Hearts captain and manager Craig Levein believes an approach from Rangers would leave McInnes with a "very difficult decision".

"I think the fact Hearts have been elevated by Tony Bloom's arrival - and the manager has that backing - it would be a very difficult decision for Derek to leave and go to Ibrox," Levein said.

"He's building a really good team at Hearts and last season was the closest any non-Old Firm team has come to winning the league in 40 years.

"He seems happy where he is and that's quite an important thing. For me, this isn't as cut and dried as it might have been two or three years ago. I think there's more for Derek to mull over."

Former Hearts striker Darren Jackson has questioned whether McInnes would reject Rangers again, having turned down the job in 2017 when at Aberdeen.

"He's obviously a Rangers man and that pull got Lawrence Shankland, who wanted to play for his boyhood heroes," said Jackson.

"The expectations next season at Hearts are through the roof. Third won't be good enough - because of what's happened this year - so the pressure becomes a lot more."

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The Chicago Cubs took the first game of the three-game weekend series against the San Francisco Giants and have their unlikely ace on the mound as they try to clinch a series win on Saturday.

Ben Brown has been one of the top pitchers in MLB since joining the starting rotation.

The Giants have not been producing against regular pitchers and got the short end of this starter matchup. My Cubs vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks call for a Chicago win.

Who will win Cubs vs Giants today: Cubs -1.5 (+138)

The Chicago Cubs' moneyline is too lopsided to bet. If it gets down to -110, it might be worth taking back those 1.5 runs. However, lately the San Francisco Giants have only won when they score 10+ runs, and you'll lose either way if that happens.

It's not likely to happen against Ben Brown, who has led Chicago to wins in four of his six starts and posted an ERA on par with Ohtani, the Miz, and Cristopher Sanchez.

His underlying metrics are even better. Brown's breaking stuff is in the 100th percentile in MLB, thanks to a knuckle curve with a 44.8 whiff rate.

COVERS INTEL: Brown's four-seamer is the only pitch he throws with an average against over .200 and a put-away rate under 20%, and yet it's also one of the 318 pitches thrown in MLB with a positive run value.

Cubs vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+102)

They've shaved a run off the Over/Under cutoff, but that just helps give you positive odds. This one should go way Under. The Giants have scored 3 or fewer in five of six. The Cubs snapped a streak of five such games on Thursday.

Giants starter Trevor McDonald has whiff rates of 40% on two of his four pitches and is in the top 10% in missing barrels and inducing grounders. He shut the Cubs down for five innings last weekend.

Seeing him a second time so soon should help Chicago produce enough to win and cover, but it won't be a slugfest.

Cubs vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -122 | Giants +117
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+138) | Giants +1.5 (-144)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-113) | Under 7.5 (+108)

Cubs vs Giants trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games and the Game Total Under in five of six. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Giants.

How to watch Cubs vs Giants and game info

Cubs vs Giants latest injuries

Cubs vs Giants weather

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Despite getting out to an early lead in the first inning, the San Diego Padres couldn’t dig themselves out of the hole that starter Griffin Canning put them in. Canning was tagged for seven runs on six hits and five walks, greatly struggling to command his pitches.

The offense managed to put up three runs (which might have been enough under typical circumstances), but the Friars dropped the series opener. They’ll have to battle back in Game 2 against the Baltimore Orioles this afternoon.

Taking the mound

Trey Gibson (BAL) v. Randy Vásquez (SD)

The rookie Gibson has only started three games this year for the O’s, authoring a 4.24 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in that time. That’s mostly due to his most recent start where Gibson surrendered three runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Seattle Mariners.

Prior to that, he had looked solid. Gibson gave up five runs across 12 1/3 innings. The right-hander has struggled to command his pitches, walking eight batters through four games. San Diego will need to have discipline at the plate in order to get runners aboard.

Vásquez has struggled lately after his otherworldly start to the season. He’s been saddled with a 4.29 ERA across his last seven starts, and the righty surrendered 10 runs in his last 14 2/3 innings.

That said, the stuff that made him so electric in the first two months of the year is still there. Vásquez’s biggest problem has been missing bats. He’s not generating whiffs at the same level he was before. If he can start to rediscover that against the Orioles, it will help San Diego immensely.

Batter up!

Despite only scratching three runs across, the lineup hit surprisingly well — they just left too many runners on the bases. Manny Machado had two doubles. Gavin Sheets went 2-for-4 with two RBI. Xander Bogaerts went 1-for-3 with a walk in his return from the paternity list. But the club went a lousy 4-for-14 with RISP, failing to capitalize in big moments.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Jackson Merrill, CF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
5. Gavin Sheets, RF
6. Samad Taylor, LF
7. Ty France, 1B
8. Miguel Andujar, DH
9. Freddy Fermin, C

Since Gibson is a rookie, none of the Padres have faced him. The lineup will have to figure the righty out fast if they want to force the rubber match against Baltimore on Sunday.

Relief corps

Thankfully, in spite of his lousy outing, Canning was at least able to get through five innings of work. That meant that only Wandy Peralta and David Morgan would be used to cover the final three innings of the game. They each pitched well, giving up one hit each and no runs.

That leaves the beleaguered bullpen fresh for this afternoon’s game. Manager Craig Stammen will have plenty of arms to turn to. Jason Adam, Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez will all be readily available to come into the game once Vásquez exits.

This mostly has nothing to do with the subject of this article, but humor me for a few seconds.

You’re not a real sports fan unless there’s this one player that you irrationally believe can be something special. It can be in any sport, but it’s usually someone who just never gets to that certain level. For me, as a young Knicks fan who couldn’t have fathomed a world where they’re on the verge of greatness tonight, that was Willy Hernangomez. He never did much in the league, but his impressive rookie year as a beacon of light on a terrible team gave me hope.

It doesn’t have to be like that, though. My Yankees version of this is Albert Abreu. I saw that high-90s velocity and solid slider and changeup and thought this was the new Jonathan Loáisiga. Of course, that wasn’t too a high a bar due to ol’ Johnny Lasagna’s inconsistency, but I thought he had the stuff to be something special. As is the case with a lot of pitchers though, he never put it together and fizzled out. That’s not at risk to happening to Camilo Doval, who’s much more accomplished than any of the three players I’ve talked about so far, but there is some level of connection that he has.

Picture a reliever who can throw triple digits effortlessly with his cutter and sinker. He has an elite walk rate, almost never giving up a free pass. He gives up very few barrels. Most of the balls in play against him are pounded into the infield dirt. You’d imagine this reliever would be a tremendous high-leverage option, one that you would trust to hold a lead by not handing out free baserunners and frequently rolling double play balls when in trouble. While relievers are noticeably volatile and prone to small-sample variance (ahem Jeff Hoffman), more often than not, this is a winning archetype.

And then you look at Doval’s stats. In 29 appearances and 24.2 innings, his ERA is 5.47. He opened the season as the team’s primary set-up man, but has repeatedly been yo-yo’d into lower leverage, medium leverage, and back into big situations. He’s frequently on a short leash from Aaron Boone, something that’s problematic in a shallow bullpen.

So how is this possible? Well, it’s based on a few things.

Some of it is luck. While he doesn’t run an exceptionally high BABIP, he’s still allowing opponents to hit .260 off him, the highest rate of his career. Batters are hitting .261 on ground balls against him compared to the .246 league average, but all of this is within the regular realm of possibility.

The real culprit, in terms of luck, is his ridiculously high HR/FB%. A whopping 20 percent of his fly balls allowed have gone over the fence, a rate far above the major league average of 11.2 percent. Now, it’s not quite the highest in baseball, but he has by far the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in the top 30 (min. 20 innings pitched). Well, except for his teammate, Tim Hill.

That’s not all bad luck, as sometimes you just get absolutely tagged, so let’s look at the four home runs he’s allowed this season.

A 3-2 slider at the knees that’s obliterated by a future Hall of Famer. This wasn’t a cheapie, this was a legend of the game getting exactly what pitch he wanted.

It was pretty chilly in the Bronx in mid-April, so Doval’s sinker was down a few ticks here. Vinnie Pasquantino grooves a ball in a similar spot, but it barely sneaks out over the short porch. This is something that, with better luck, is only a double. Instead, it’s a blown save.

Another slider at the bottom of the zone crushed to center field, this time by Joc Pederson.

Yet another slider that ends right down Broadway to a perennial Yankee killer.

Only one of these pitches I’d describe as truly terrible, but only one of these would also be classified as a wall-scraper. The clear trend here is just how flat and hittable his slider has been, which has been, by far, the worst pitch in his arsenal this season. Batters are 9-for-25 with three home runs and five extra-base hits against the pitch. He’s surrendering an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph and a .493 wOBA, but interestingly enough, the xwOBA is just .322. As a whole, Doval’s differential of 40 points between his xwOBA and wOBA makes him the second-unluckiest pitcher on the roster behind David Bednar (42 points).

Reliever sample sizes are so small that this stuff might never even out. 2024 Clay Holmes and 2025 Mark Leiter Jr. similarly suffered from bad luck, but theirs were more concentrated in grueling misfortune on ground balls and soft contact, while also suffering from bad defense. Defenders do have a -3 Fielding Run Value behind Doval this season, the worst on the team, but it isn’t Leiter-esque… yet.

While sometimes it just feels like a reliever’s struggles are something that feels unnecessarily cruel from the baseball gods, Doval can absolutely improve some things. For one, here’s a heat map of his pitches:

He’s been throwing his slider less and less lately after how much it got pounded in April, but his struggles have remained because of both location and his inability to change speeds. Some pitchers can make throwing almost exclusively fastballs work (hello Cam Schlittler), but when a hitter can equally time up an entire arsenal because of how close they are in velocity and spin, location becomes paramount.

And as you can see, you can probably gear up for 100 at the bottom of the zone when facing Doval. When it’s not at the bottom of the zone, his sinker creeps too much towards the belt, while his cutter spins towards the top. Being too predictable is the vice of every major league pitcher, and Doval isn’t exempt. His inability to properly locate or sequence has plummeted his strikeout rate, putting him at the whim of the defense behind him and Lady Luck herself.

I’m confident he’ll eventually stabilize as one of the better relievers in this bullpen, but the results aren’t there right now. I don’t really see a world where he gets to where he needs to be without that slider becoming a real weapon again, so until that happens, it’ll continue to be a maddening work in progress.

Worcester: L, 3-6 (BOX SCORE)

Twin Red Wings (Nationals AAA) home runs late in the game made the WooSox the only loser in the organization on Friday, and it’s also a shame that the first of those home runs was a direct response to a long ball Jason Delay hit in the top of the frame to pull the WooSox within one. The bottom of the WooSox lineup each reached base twice and Vinny Capra went 3-for-5, but earlier in the game, Raymond Burgos, who’s turned into a multi-inning work horse, kind of wore a tough start and was pulled in the fourth inning. Overall, the WooSox were peppered when they really couldn’t have afforded to be and it cost them.

Portland: W, 13-12 (F/10) (BOX SCORE)

The Sea Dogs almost had it locked up in Lehigh Valley (Phillies AA) especially after adding an insurance run to go up 12-9 heading into the bottom of the ninth, but the Phils locked it back up at 12 when Cooper Adams let a home run up. From the jump, both teams had the pitching figured out: Hayden Mullins and Cade Feeney combined for nine runs allowed and three home runs, and the game had thirty-one total hits. The good news: Portland didn’t have to wait long to stave the Phils off after blowing that save, and they had eighteen of those thirty one hits. Johanfran Garcia continues raking with another home run and Miguel Bleis reintroduced himself, if only for a night, with two doubles and a home run. That home run was thought to be the first turning point in the game, moving Portland’s expected winning percentage from just over 35 percent to 85 percent. Of course, the result had to wait, but Portland won nonetheless, thanks in large part to a prospect who simply hasn’t had the year many expected him to in 2026. I’m not about to say one night of nine total bases will turn the whole season around for the 22-year-old outfielder, who’s still batting just north of .200 with a 29% strikeout rate, but here’s hoping it’s the beginning of a second wind of sorts.

Greenville: W, 10-5 (BOX SCORE)

Greenville also didn’t pull any punches at the plate, as through two innings, they already had taken Winston-Salem (White Sox High-A) for a six-run ride. This didn’t keep Kyson Witherspoon from letting the Dash partially back into it, but he kept his own for the remainder of five satisfactory innings. Enddy Azocar is quietly (or not so quietly) proving that he is a bat to watch in the next couple of years: with a 3-for-4 night including a double Friday, he is now slashing .365/.411/.635 in 12 games since being called up from Salem. Azocar is quickly building onto his resume, spending the last year or so adding a bunch of muscle and adding onto that power tool. He’s still quick and has a nice arm, too. Azocar is just 19 still, so I’d expect him to stay in Greenville the rest of the season or enjoy a short call-up to Portland near the end before starting 2027 there, but right now, the sky is the limit if developed right.

Salem: Cancelled

Never to be made up, ending the Minor Lines abruptly just like the week seemingly did. Have a great Saturday!