We're nearing the halfway point of the MLB season, which means it should be crystal clear to you by now where your fantasy teams stand in their respective leagues. We know there is more than enough time to make up ground in the standings, but you need to have already identified your weakest categories and started to attack them.
For many people, that's pitching. While the league starting pitcher ERA is 4.02 this season, the lowest mark in quite some time, the league average strikeout rate for starters is the lowest it's been since 2021, the WHIP is the second-highest it's been, and the hard-hit and barrel rates are the highest they've been. On top of that, we've lost plenty of top-tier talents to injury, like Corbin Burnes, Hunter Greene, Cole Ragans, and more.
If we're looking for starting pitching help in our fantasy leagues, sometimes we need to be looking to acquire pitchers whose surface-level stats aren't as enticing as we'd like them to be. In order to help identify some names, I created some leaderboards using two stats I like to identify baseline talent (SIERA and K-BB%) and looked to see if any pitchers stood out as players we might want to target in a trade or on the waiver wire. Let's see what we can find.
STATS ARE UPDATED AS OF TUESDAY, JUNE 10TH.
Starting Pitcher Targets: SIERA
Below is the list of pitchers who have underperformed their SIERA the most. As I mentioned above, these stats were before Tuesday's games, so the numbers on guys like Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo are not fully up-to-date, but I left them in here because they're worth discussing. I also removed currently injured pitchers like Cole Ragans, Max Meyer, Aaron Nola, and Bryce Miller. I also removed pitchers who are technically underperforming their SIERA but still have awful SIERAs, like Tanner Houck, Charlie Morton, Bowden Francis, etc.
| Name | Team | IP | SIERA | ERA | SIERA - ERA |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 57 | 4.844555329 | 7.89473737 | -3.050182042 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | 49.2 | 3.866748136 | 6.70469833 | -2.837950194 |
| Lucas Giolito | BOS | 33.2 | 4.39493702 | 6.415842069 | -2.020905049 |
| Will Warren | NYY | 57.1 | 3.523043018 | 5.337209776 | -1.814166758 |
| Ryan Gusto | HOU | 33.2 | 4.185191 | 5.881188563 | -1.695997563 |
| Trevor Williams | WSN | 64 | 4.351500289 | 5.906250352 | -1.554750063 |
| Michael Soroka | WSN | 37 | 3.373259325 | 4.864864865 | -1.49160554 |
| Dylan Cease | SDP | 68.2 | 3.238267745 | 4.718446777 | -1.480179032 |
| Cade Povich | BAL | 56.1 | 3.879504694 | 5.112426497 | -1.232921803 |
| Walker Buehler | BOS | 48.2 | 4.122877737 | 5.178082462 | -1.055204725 |
| Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 72.2 | 3.409815534 | 4.458715752 | -1.048900219 |
| Shane Baz | TBR | 70.2 | 3.968294475 | 4.966981311 | -0.9986868361 |
| Andre Pallante | STL | 72 | 3.866563 | 4.75 | -0.883437 |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | 80.1 | 4.32803323 | 5.153527297 | -0.8254940672 |
| Hunter Dobbins | BOS | 41.1 | 3.715594174 | 4.354838844 | -0.63924467 |
| Dean Kremer | BAL | 72.1 | 4.402903 | 4.976958875 | -0.5740558753 |
A lot of the pitchers in this first group are players who are rostered in the vast majority of formats, so if you're "targeting them," you're doing so in trades. However, there are some solid trade targets here. Dylan Cease is still flashing elite swing-and-miss stuff with a 15.9% SwStr%. You'd have to expect that his results will skew closer to his SIERA as command stabilizes and sequencing improves. People are also jumping off the Jesus Luzardo train because of his last two bad starts, but I don't think we should throw out all the good work he did before that. There is some chatter that he's simply been tipping his pitches, and I also don't want to ignore WHY he was good in his first 11 starts. His new sweeper is a legit change for him, and he has a deep arsenal with good swing-and-miss rates. I think he finishes the year closer to his 3.41 SIERA. OBVIOUSLY, AFTER CEASE'S AND LUZARDO'S LAST STARTS, IT MAY BE HARDER TO TRADE FOR THEM BUT STILL WORTH A LOOK.
Will Warren is another pitcher you'd likely need to trade for after his hot stretch in May, but I am more of a believer in his SIERA than his ERA. His 18.4% K-BB% is well above league average, and he grades out above-average in Stuff+ as well. I covered Warren in detail in this article, so I'd encourage you to check that out.
Oh, Sandy Alcantara. At this point, we know the deal; his raw stuff remains great, as evidenced by his 107.9 Stuff+, and the velocity is back, but his command is a mess, which has led to plenty of baserunnersand inconsistent results. However, the Marlins have been working with him on shifting his focus to be more glove-side, and also have gotten him to use his four-seamer and curve more in the hopes of improving his overall command. The numbers above are from before his start on Tuesday against Pittsburgh, but those changes do seem to be working. Remember that command is not impacted much by your opponent, so it was nice to see Alcantara attack the strike zone more in his last two starts. While it's been great to see him take advantage of Pittsburgh and Colorado, Philadelphia and Atlanta are up next, and that worries me. Given his recent run of success, I would suggest benching him to see if he can maintain his command improvements, but I would not yet be trading for him.
Eduardo Rodriguez has always been a conundrum. He seems to frequently post a SIERA that suggests he deserves better results, but he also has poor Stuff+ grades and doesn't miss lots of bats, which means his margin for error is very slim. He'll probably end the season with a low 4s ERA because that's what he does, but he's not somebody I need to target unless I'm in a deeper format where a 4.10 ERA with middling strikeout numbers is useful.
Michael Soroka is an interesting name here because of his 3.38 SIERA and an 18.3% K-BB% that's well above league average. He's also been filling up the zone, which has led to a strong 29.1% CSW and a 99.7 Pitching+ grade, which is right below league average. Soroka is not likely to turn into a major fantasy asset for you, but he looks like a solid deep league option and a solid streamer based on his plus command.
Lucas Giolito has vascillated between strong and poor throughout his 2025 campaign, which shouldn't be much of a surprise given that he's coming off internal brace surgery on his elbow and missed all of last season. His SwStr% and Stuff+ numbers are down overall, but he does have some spike performances, and is coming off his best game from a whiff perspective. He has a 52% zone rate, which means he's attacking the zone regularly, which is both good and bad. We love it because we love hitters who attack the zone, but Boston's defense also leads MLB in errors, and Giolito has had a few games with outrageous BABIPs, like a .588 mark on May 6th and a .636 mark on June 4th. His ISO and xwOBA suggest he's been a bit unlucky based on the contact he's given up. I believe he'll remain inconsistent, but if it clicks into place at any point, he could be a real asset down the stretch. In deeper formats, he's probably worth a gamble.
I'm just not a fan of Ryan Gusto or Andre Pallante as targets. Gusto has a good fastball but little else, and Pallante has been playing around with his slider in his most recent starts, but there's nothing in his arsenal that speaks to swing-and-miss value or a true go-to pitch. Of the two, I prefer Gusto because his 10.4% SwStr% is at least league average, and his 99.9 Stuff+ grade is also average, but I just think too much of that is on the back of one good pitch.
However, I do like what we've seen recently from Shane Baz. There was a real issue in May where I believe he was tipping his pitches, whichI covered in detail in my starting pitcher article. His four-seam fastball remains a strong pitch, and if the tipping issues on his curve are fixed, then that remains a strong pitch as well. I do wish he had a better third offering, though. As it stands, I think Baz is somebody with plus raw stuff on two pitches, but a limited mix which leads to overall solid but not great SwStr% and CSW marks. He throws a lot of strikes, but the whiffs just haven't been there, which is a bit of a concern. Still, when you're talking about pitchers who could return value, Baz is one of the better bets here. I think the Rays will let him get to 130-ish innings and then could shut him down if they're no longer in contention, but I can't see them manipulating his innings right now. At some point, you have to let a young pitcher learn how to pitch a full season.
I've never been a huge believer in Cade Povich, but he made this list, so I decided to dig in. He has a solid 15.6% K-BB% and a good Zone%, which means he's attacking hitters and getting some whiffs. However, his 9.2% SwStr% is below average, as is his 97 Stuff+ grade overall. It comes back to a larger issue that none of his pitches truly stand out. The four-seamer grades out well, but that's mostly due to command. The curve and change are just league-average swinging strike rate pitches. The sweeper is a below-average whiff pitch even against lefties.
Starting Pitcher Targets: K-BB%
| Name | Team | IP | ERA | K-BB% | SwStr% | Stuff+ |
| Will Warren | NYY | 57.1 | 5.337209776 | 0.184314 | 0.105313 | 101.04 |
| Shane Baz | TBR | 70.2 | 4.966981311 | 0.129568 | 0.1019 | 107.96 |
| Dylan Cease | SDP | 68.2 | 4.718446777 | 0.208904 | 0.158902 | 107.59 |
| Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 72.2 | 4.458715752 | 0.187898 | 0.127362 | 100.61 |
| Hunter Dobbins | BOS | 41.1 | 4.354838844 | 0.150289 | 0.108491 | 97.19 |
| Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | 69.2 | 4.26315805 | 0.139073 | 0.123026 | 98.88 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | NYY | 30 | 4.2 | 0.165289 | 0.123644 | 100.24 |
| Grant Holmes | ATL | 66.2 | 4.050000154 | 0.133574 | 0.108992 | 89.49 |
| Clarke Schmidt | NYY | 49 | 4.040816327 | 0.142157 | 0.128141 | 100.94 |
| Edward Cabrera | MIA | 49.2 | 3.986577385 | 0.146789 | 0.105758 | 104.59 |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | 76.2 | 3.873913172 | 0.18543 | 0.121732 | 101.61 |
| Matthew Liberatore | STL | 68.1 | 3.819512479 | 0.170819 | 0.106256 | 98.34 |
| Tylor Megill | NYM | 64.2 | 3.757732107 | 0.187943 | 0.12066 | 108.07 |
| Jameson Taillon | CHC | 76.1 | 3.537118 | 0.146179 | 0.100437 | 97.09 |
| Landen Roupp | SFG | 68.1 | 3.292683172 | 0.131313 | 0.100983 | 98.73 |
| David Peterson | NYM | 70.2 | 2.801886893 | 0.133779 | 0.105217 | 89.62 |
| Shane Smith | CHW | 62.1 | 2.454545505 | 0.133588 | 0.124623 | 95.86 |
We have some duplicate names on here, and some pitchers I covered in more detail in my starting pitcher news column. I just wrote about Jameson Taillon yesterday and the impact his new changeup is having. I also discussed how Kevin Gausman had found his splitter a few weeks ago.
If anybody in your league doesn't believe in David Peterson, I'd make sure to float some offers and see if you can pry him away. He will likely settle closer to his 3.66 SIERA, but he's getting tons of swings outside of the zone, and I think the overall improvements to his slider and curve have been beneficial. I'm more "in" on Peterson than Matthew Liberatore, despite Liberatore having a better Stuff+ ranking. OBVIOUSLY, PETERSON SHOVED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO ACQUIRING HIM WILL BE HARDER NOW.
Edward Cabrera is one of my favorite targets on this list, and I covered his new pitch shapes and mix in detail here. The short summary is that I think the new arm angle and decision to feature his sinker over his four-seamer will lead to better command. He also now has a plus breaking ball to hitters of each handedness, which raises his floor a bit.
Hunter Dobbins continues to intrigue me. I know the Red Sox don't let him go through the order three times, and so that limits his upside, but he has a solid 3.72 SIERA and an above-average 15% K-BB%. He also grades out well in Pitching+, which is Eno Sarris' Stuff+ model that takes into account location and overall effectiveness. Dobbins doesn't have elite stuff, but all five of his pitches grade out as at least average by PLV, which counts location as well as movement/shape. I don't think there is tons of strikeout upside here, and you may want to sit him against top offenses like the Yankees, but I like the sum of the parts.
Clarke Schmidt is somebody you might be able to trade for because he doesn't get a ton of respect. He has good enough swing and miss numbers with an above-average SwStr% and K-BB%. He also has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his last seven starts. In that stretch, he has a 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate with a 13.6% SwStr%. He has leaned into the cutter a little more of late, and that's a pitch I like for him.
I know I'm in the bag for Luis L. Ortiz, but this leaderboard is one of the reasons why. A 12.3% SwStr% is above average, as is a 29.3% CSW. He's attacking the zone at a 54% clip but has just average K-BB% and below-average Stuff+ marks. Over the last few starts, he has leaned into his slider more, and that pitch has a 21% SwStr% and 34% ICR on the season. The Guardians have him working on burying it low and away from righties more, and the pitch has added horizontal movement as the year has gone on, but it's not consistently in the zone. He's also gaining velocity on his fastball as the weather warms, which is nice to see. The downside is that the cutter from last year has left him with the other new changes, and he's lacked consistency, which makes sense since the Guardians are making major changes to his pitch mix and locations. There are days when it looks like it'll come together and he'll be really useful, and other days where it's a mess, but maybe he figures it out in the second half.
Landen Roupp was a pitcher I liked in the spring because he had added a cutter and changed his changeup into more of a kick-change. I thought that would bring him more success against lefties. He has also started to trust his changeup more as the season has gone on and seems to have lowered his release point across the board. Maybe that's a small sample issue, or maybe it's him finding a more comfortable arm angle for some of his new pitches, but his changeup has taken off. The issue is that the SwStr% has not been there like it was when he was in the minor leagues.
I covered Ryan Yarbrougha few weeks ago in my starting pitcher news column, breaking down all the ways that the Yankees tweaked his arsenal. He then promptly went out and got hit around by Boston. Then again, Boston has a good offense, especially against left-handers, so maybe we can give Yarbrough a pass. Check out the article to see that detailed breakdown and make the call.
Other Names to Target
I wanted to highlight a few names that didn't make the leaderboard, but are names I'm intrigued by for a few reasons
Ben Casparius is being stretched out to join the starting rotation, and while that might not stick long-term, I think there is clearly a path for Casparius to remain in the rotation if he pitches well. It may take a little time for it to "click" for him as a starter, but I'm willing to roster him and let him figure it out.
I know people aren't into Slade Cecconi, but I kinda dig what he's doing through five starts in Cleveland. It's a 4.26 ERA (3.60 SIERA), 18.3% K-BB%, 13% SwStr%, and 31% CSW. I covered his changes in more detail here, but the short version is that he fixed his mechanics to be taller on the back foot. He's added a sinker and a cutter to take some pressure off the four-seamer, which has more iVB this year. He's using his curve more in two-strike counts and has seen it become a great put-away pitch. He also took some velocity off the slider and added movement, and has seen the SwStr% jump 8%. He gives up more hard contact than you'd like, and that's the wrinkle to look for, but I think he's worth stashing on benches.
My "On the Corner" podcast co-host Nick Pollack loves Sawyer Gipson-Long, and he has talked me into it to a certain extent. There will be inconsistencies like there are for any pitcher coming off arm surgery, but a 17.4% SwStr% and 35% CSW through two appearances is appealing. He still possesses elite 7.4 feet of extension on his fastball, and a good slider that is harder and tighter this year. If that changeup builds into a good third offering, he could be a good five-inning option on perhaps the best team in the AL. That's useful.
Both Mick Abel and Jacob Misiorowski are both currently up in their MLB rotations and are worth a look. Misiorowski has more upside with an elite fastball and good breaker, but will his command gains stick at the big league level? Abel has a deeper pitch mix and better team context, so he feels like the safer floor option to me and probably the pitcher I'd prefer in deeper formats. However, if Misiorowski can hold his improved fastball command, he's going to be tough to hit.
