Category: Baseball

If there’s one team that Yankees fans will keep up with every season (outside of the men in pinstripes), it’s their biggest rival: the Boston Red Sox. Regardless of the race in the American League East, the rivalry between the Sox and the Yankees is one that continues to heat up every time the two take the field against one another and get closer in the standings.

Last season, the Red Sox were competitive with both the Yankees and the Blue Jays for the top of the AL East, ultimately settling for a Wild Card spot that still marked their first playoff berth in four years and just their second since winning it all in 2018. Led by an up-and-down effort from the lineup and some excellent performances from the mound, the Red Sox will look to make up the ground they were missing in 2025 this time around.

2025 record: 89-73 (3rd, AL East)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 85-77 (3rd, AL East)

Led by now-longtime manager Alex Cora the Red Sox have had a busy offseason of moves that have even extended into the start of spring training. The biggest news out of Beantown, and one that came as a bit of a surprise to those within the organization. was the loss of Alex Bregman, who—in addition to being a clubhouse leader—finished the season with a 125 wRC+ and 3.5 fWAR, the third-highest on the team last season. However, with his loss comes plenty of additions, both to a rotation that needed some insurance and a lineup that could always use another bat to help “recreate Bregman in the aggregate.”

The biggest statement came shortly after Bregman came to terms with the Cubs, as Boston responded by signing starter Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million contract. The southpaw finished last season with a 12-8 record, 3.20 ERA, and 151 strikeouts in 157.1 innings pitched for the Philadelphia Phillie, and figures to team up with ace Garrett Crochet to form a fearsome one-two punch. And to continue bolstering their rotation, they traded for Cardinals lefty Sonny Gray (a familiar name to Yankees fans) and Pirates righty Johan Oviedo to round out their top five, alongside playoff Game 2 starter Brayan Bello. Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford could also be rotation options when they are deemed healthy enough as well, as Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins were dealt as part of their offseason moves. The bullpen is still led by erstwhile Yankeses closer Aroldis Chapman, who had a career season at age 37, winning AL Reliever of the Year, pitching 61.1 innings, and finishing with a 1.17 ERA (the lowest of his career), a 2.53 xFIP, a 12.5 K/9, and a 2.6 fWAR — the second-highest among anyone on the pitching staff.

And the most recent news for the pitching staff broke as of March 12th, as the Red Sox signed free-agent left-handed pitcher Danny Coulombe, who finished the year with a 2.30 ERA in 43.2 innings. However, it was a tale of two different teams, as he finished his time with the Twins with a 1.16 ERA in 31 innings pitched. Then in 15 games and 12.0 innings pitched with the Rangers after he was traded there, Coulombe finished the year with a 5.25 ERA and 12 strikeouts. So, for the second season in a row, he will get a fresh start.

Of course, we can’t not talk about Crochet for just a moment. After finishing second in the AL Cy Young Award race behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, the big lefty is looking to finish the campaign on top of the pitching world. He finished last season with a 2.59 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, and a 5.8 fWAR, not just the highest of anyone on the pitching staff by over double the points, but also the most of anyone on the Red Sox last season. All of that occurred in 205.1 innings pitched, easily the highest count of his career, beating his previous best of 146 with the White Sox in 2024. Add in a stellar Wild Card Series start in the Bronx, and it all made for an outstanding debut in Boston. Extended for six years and $170 million shortly after Opening Day 2025, Crochet will be a thorn in the Yankees’ side for quite awhile.

When looking at the lineup, there isn’t much that needed to be changed outside of making up for the lost bat of Bregman. But the Red Sox did just that by trading for first baseman Willson Contreras, who finished last season in St. Louis with a 124 wRC+ and a 2.8 fWAR, not quite what Bregman produced defensively but also good enough with the bat to make up for it. In mid-February, they also swung a trade with Milwaukee to add two key infielders: former Yankees farmhand Caleb Durbin, who finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and Andruw Monasterio, who had a 110 OPS+ in 68 games. Look for Durbin to take the majority of reps at third base in Bregman’s absence.

Along with the addition of Contreras, the Red Sox have plenty of weapons throughout their lineup. Jarren Duran was the leader in fWAR for the hitters at 3.9, but Ceddanne Rafaela was just behind him at 3.8. In fact, the Red Sox had four hitters reach the 3.0 mark last season (including Bregman) and eight reach the 2.0 mark, including Rafael Devers, who finished eighth but was of course traded to the Giants in mid-June.

The player to watch amongst those who finished with 2.0 fWAR or above is Roman Anthony, who reached the mark in just 71 games. The moment he stepped on a big league diamond, the rookie made his presence felt and has continued lighting up opposing pitching whenever he was penciled into the lineup. Like Crochet, he impressed enough to earn a midseason extension, for eight years and $130 million. At just 21 years old, there is so much in store for him both in the field and at the plate for the Red Sox.

With the pitching additions the Sox made, along with their strong lineup up and down, there will be plenty of battles at the top of the AL East as 2026 moves forward.

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More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.

We did this with the starters on Wednesday. We looked at six key numbers that can help us both explain why some pitchers succeed and some fail and hopefully help us predict progression or regression. Reliever numbers in particular are ver volatile. When you condense 180 innings into 50 or 60, you are going to have some pretty wild swings back and forth in certain numbers.

Last time, we noted that BABIP, left on base percentage, and home runs per fly ball tend to be a little more volatile than the other numbers. So, we key in on chase rate, hard hit rate, and contact rate as generally more stable and maybe more predictive in whether a pitcher will be good, average, or bad. As I have each and every time, I am listing our numbers below and their league averages for your perusal.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.

• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.

• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.

• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.
• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.
• LOB%: It is pretty self-explanatory. It is the number of runners that get stranded on base. The league average tends to be around 70 percent. Of course, there is some debate as to whether pitchers control that or not.

Bryan Abreu

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	28.5	34.0	.259	62.2	9.8	87.6
2024	30.5	38.0	.286	68.8	11.7	82.9
2025	31.0	45.5	.309	60.8	6.8	84.6
Aggregate	30.0	39.2	.285	63.9	9.4	85.0

Abreu raises some questions that need answering from those of us that crunch numbers. Can pitchers control how many runners they strand? Abreu has consistently stranded well above the league average, so maybe he is just more adept at doing it. Maybe it has something to do with low contact rates. Maybe there is a clutch gene that these numbers just can’t touch. Still, if we remove that number entirely we see what Abreu’s superpower is. He misses bats and does so at a very high rate.

The difficulty with Abreu is that some of the other numbers point to regression. Hard hit rates have steadily gotten higher and BABIP has gotten higher with it. He also might have lucked out a little with home runs last season. Add that all up and he probably regresses some this season. The contact rates will step keep him effective overall though.

Enyel de los Santos

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	29.8	33.3	.275	74.4	5.9	72.2
2024	28.1	42.3	.291	72.5	19.5	80.1
2025	28.8	40.1	.292	72.7	9.0	67.4
Aggregate	28.9	38.6	.286	73.2	11.5	73.2

de los Santos is the definition of an average pitcher. He is also a perfect example of how an average pitcher can look really good in short bursts. That was the case in 2023 when he was with Cleveland. de los Santos will start on the injured list, but I am guessing he will figure into the bullpen somehow. Like with most middle relievers, you are praying to the baseball gods for good batted ball luck.

Josh Hader

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	34.6	28.3	.264	68.5	5.8	88.8
2024	36.5	38.8	.230	62.0	15.8	67.0
2025	40.7	33.9	.202	61.1	12.3	88.8
Aggregate	37.3	33.7	.236	63.9	11.3	81.5

The main difference between Hader and Abreu is the chase rate. Hader gets guys to chase that slider more often than Abreu gets chase on his. Otherwise, they are similar pitchers. They limit contact and depend on high stranded rates and low BABIP rates to thrive. Hader will begin the season on the injured list, but hopefully should miss the minimum amount of time and resume his role as the team’s closer. There is little reason to expect anything other than what he has done in recent seasons.

Bryan King

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	—-	—-	.302	74.9	6.7	83.9
2024	24.7	34.4	.302	78.3	4.3	82.3
2025	30.5	36.1	.276	78.0	14.5	88.5
Aggregate	27.6	35.3	.293	77.1	8.5	84.6

Monty Python did “Life of Brian” where an ordinary guy was mistaken for the savior. King has the look of an ordinary guy that did extraordinary things last season largely due to an astronomically high left on base rate. Add in a little lower BABIP than normal and you can see where this is going. Predicting more of the same from King would be tantamount to “magical thinking.” He has fairly average rates otherwise, so expecting average is probably in the cards. Average relievers have value, but they probably shouldn’t be pitching after the seventh inning in close games.

Peter Lambert

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	26.0	40.0	,296	79.5	15.8	71.4
2024	25.0	45.8	.344	80.3	10.6	65.8
2025	—-	36.7	.331	——	10.1	74.4
Aggregate	25.5	40.8	.327	79.9	12.2	70.5

Lambert pitched overseas last season, so some of the numbers are missing and some of these are minor league numbers. He is a high octane arm that might provide some quality innings if given the opportunity. He has been sparkling so far in camp, so he has a decent chance to make the team. If you think in terms of Kaleb Ort then you are probably on the right wavelength. The Astros have made a living off of these guys and he might be another that serves them well until he reverts back into a pumpkin.

Roddery Munoz

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	27.3	40.3	.291	71.1	15.5	68.1
2024	25.4	45.0	.267	78.6	21.8	70.3
2025	37.2	36.0	.311	61.0	11.1	77.3
Aggregate	31.5	40.4	.290	70.2	16.1	71.9

Munoz’s spring has been a fascinating microcosm in the life of a relief pitcher. His first few outings were rocky and so his overall numbers probably don’t look great. Still, they don’t reflect how well he has pitched and given that he is a Rule V pick, he probably still has a leg up on a bullpen slot. How good can he be? Like most of these other guys, he will be a slave to batted ball luck. The results show he missed more bats last season. Maybe he found something and if so then he could be a good one.

Steven Okert

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	27.6	34.5	.295	72.0	11.8	77.0
2024	21.9	29.6	.304	78.1	13.0	72.4
2025	26.0	32.7	.230	69.1	6.4	71.2
Aggregate	25.2	32.3	.273	73.1	10.4	73.5

The Astros rely more heavily on these BABIP warriors than most other teams and therefore their season to season results are more volatile. That can partially explain why they seem to get off to slow starts. It takes Joe Espada (or Dusty Baker before him) several weeks to figure out who the hot hand will be. Last season it was Okert, King, and Bennett Sousa. This year it will likely be some other guys. Okert looks okay according to the numbers, but he’s not special and likely will revert back to average.

Bennett Sousa

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	38.6	44.0	.326	59.3	20.0	66.1
2024	—-	—-	—-	——	——	——
2025	39.1	36.8	.271	64.8	7.5	73.3
Aggregate	38.9	40.4	.299	62.1	13.8	29.7

Depending on health, Sousa mght have been more of a find than King and Okert. He gets much higher chase rates and has a lot more swing and miss from opposing batters. That is generally more sustainable than what King and Okert are doing. So, getting him back could be a key to making the bullpen a little longer. The danger here is that the track record is obviously shorter which leaves you to wonder if hitters will figure him out eventually.

Kai-Wei Teng

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB	LOB%
2023	29.5	23.7	.331	68.2	7.8	70.2
2024	26.1	37.4	.336	79.2	17.8	56.0
2025	32.3	29.8	.322	67.3	8.3	67.9
Aggregate	29.3	30.3	.330	71.6	11.3	64.7

In the movie “Major League” manager Lou Brown utters, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I got a hunch he’s due.” Sometimes, analysis can be just that simple. Teng has been a victim of bad batted ball luck for three years now. Maybe they have a hunch he is due. The BABIP is higher than it should be and the left on base is lower than it should be. Put those back at league norms with the lower contact rates and softer contact and you have yourself something. I wouldn’t put together a bullpen this way, but taking an occasional flier on someone like this never hurts.

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Naturally, some of the starters we saw last time will find their way in the pen. I did leave out one or two names that we might see just based on space. However, these nine guys should be the bulk of their bullpen for the coming season. What do you think? Who are you high on?

Who is he and where does he come from?

He’s Danny Coulombe and he comes from Scottsdale, Arizona, where he attended one of those powerhouse warm-weather high schools that somehow produces more baseball players in a decade than most New England schools produce in a century. Paul Konerko, Ike Davis, and Brian Bannister are all alumni of Coulombe’s Chaparral High School, as is the actress Busy Phillips, the Bella Twins of WWE, and Stephanie Meyer, vampire romance millionaire.

But Coulombe’s journey to the Notable Alumni tab of his high school’s Wikipedia page was an arduous one. In fact, fifteen years ago he almost gave up on baseball altogether. This was after a disastrous freshman season at USC, where he only made four appearances, and an even worse sophomore campaign at a Phoenix-area community college, where he injured his shoulder in the first inning of first start and was lost for the year.

Coulombe considered calling it quits, but made one more transfer, this time to Texas Tech, where he not only made it through his opening day start, but threw the bulk of the workload in a combined two-hitter. Coulombe was injured again after just 21 innings and underwent Tommy John surgery. But the Dodgers liked what they saw in his small sample size and to took him in the 25th round of the 2012 MLB Draft. Coulombe made his big league debut two years later and subsequently put together an 11-year career as a left-handed reliever, primarily with the A’s and Twins. The Red Sox signed him yesterday to a one-year, $1 million deal.

Is he any good?

In 40 appearances for the Twins last year, Coulombe put up an eye-popping 371 ERA+, making him one of the most dominant relievers in the game for most of the season (Aroldis Chapman’s ERA+ last year was just 351, for comparison’s sake). He is the dictionary definition of a crafty lefty: a guy who strikes out a ton of batters and limits walks (when healthy, his strikeout and walk rates are both consistently well above average), and does it all with a fastball that averages just a touch over 90 MPH, making him one of the baseball’s softest tossers.

Given the success he’s had, you’re probably wondering why the Red Sox were able to sign him for just a million bucks. Well, the first thing to consider is that Coulombe has never been able to shake the injuries that started dogging him back in college. From 2022 through 2025, Coulombe averaged just 39 games a season, missing time due to injuries to his hips, bicep, elbow, forearm, and shoulder. That’s a lot of body parts! Moreover, Coulumbe was traded from the Twins to the Rangers at the deadline last year, and was absolutely horrible in Arlington, giving up 11 hits and an ugly 9 walks in just 12 innings.

Entering his age-36 season, Coulombe is very much in the Eddie Harris phase of his career, getting by on guile and guts and hoping his body holds up for another season or two.

Tl;dr, just give me his 2025 stats.

With the Twins: 31.0 IP, 1.16 ERA, 31 K, 21 H, 9 BB, 0 HR

With the Rangers: 12.0 IP, 5.25 ERA, 12 K, 11 H, 9 BB, 3 HR

Show me a cool highlight.

Here’s his 2025 highlight reel. Check out how frustrated these hitters are. When he’s right, Coulombe is the type of pitcher who leads to a lot of broken bats — not from making contact with his pitches, but from making contact with the dugout walls.

What’s he doing in his picture up there?

He appears to be attempting a cartwheel before delivering a pitch. That’s definitely against the rules, but it’s also the type of move that Bugs Bunny might pull out while twirling yet another perfect game, which only burnishes Coulombe’s crafty lefty credentials even more.

What’s his role on the 2026 Red Sox?

Well, as Jacob Roy pointed out just yesterday in his horribly-timed preview of the Red Sox left-handed relievers, the Sox were seriously lacking in depth in that part of the roster, with Jovani Moran being the leading candidate to be the first lefty arm out of the bullpen. Coulombe will immediately step into that role. How long he stays there will be determined by his health and whether he can fix whatever went wrong for him last year in Texas.

The Dodgers slow rolled Blake Snell’s throwing program this offseason, and as a result, he has yet to log a single inning of spring action.

Snell finally threw his first bullpen session one month removed from both pitchers and catchers reporting to camp, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com, but he wasn’t throwing at maximum effort during that 15-pitch session. The likelihood of him getting some innings under his belt this spring is virtually non-existent, and he is guaranteed to be out for the opening series of the regular season against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Snell remarked that it would “be sick” if he is able to make his 2026 debut by late April, but for both Snell and the Dodgers alike, patience is still the most important virtue surrounding his progress as the team looks to get a healthier version of the two-time Cy Young award winner.

“I think it’s a good step in the right direction,” Roberts said, “in the sense of getting on the slope, on the mound. … This is not a max-effort bullpen. So yeah, he’s on the mound, which is great, but until he’s kind of going full steam ahead, then we really don’t know what we’ve got.”

Snell spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA following his bullpen session, noting that he only topped out at 89 miles per hour but acknowledged that it felt effortless.

“I was very excited to throw off the mound again and pitch. I’d been looking forward to this for a while… I was still limited to what I could throw. I was throwing 87 to 89 [miles per hour], but felt effortless, easy, good command of the ball, so I’m happy with that.”

Links

All the pomp and circumstance that came with the Dodgers two consecutive championships have come and gone, as the number one priority for the team is to become the first MLB team to three-peat in 26 years. Kiké Hernández, who played a pivotal role in both World Series runs, spoke with the media on Thursday about the mindset of going for a third consecutive title.

“We’re just trying to win this year. We already won the last two years, and that doesn’t do anything for us other than put a target on our backs. We’re trying to win this year, and if we win this year then it just so happens to be three years in a row.”

Friday will mark the final time that Clayton Kershaw will play competitive baseball, as Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com tweets that Team USA manager Mark DeRosa will replace Kershaw with Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan following Friday’s game against Team Canada.

Good morning, baseball fans!

Per reporting from John Shea of The San Francisco Standard, the San Francisco Giants will get the honor of hosting Netflix’s first baseball broadcast this season on Opening Day.

Now, I’m not the best person to write on this. I have been crusading against the streaming wars taking over baseball one app at a time for several years now. However, I will say that this broadcast, specifically, should be a cool one. Even if it’s probably only happening because they will be playing the New York Yankees for their opening series (and it’s one of the only games being played on March 25th).

Netflix is planning to take to the cove, McCovey Cove that is, where they are set to have 73 branded red kayaks to represent the number of home runs that Barry Bonds hit to break the MLB record back in 2001. It sounds like these will be available for fans to use, with McCovey Cove Dave (Dave Edlund) assisting Netflix in recruitment efforts.

Per Shea’s reporting, Netflix is hoping to involve Bonds in the broadcast in some capacity as well. We’ll get you more information on the game as it gets closer.

One of the most anticipated minor league debuts this season will be Zach Swanson embarking on his first pro season. The right-hander is another in the Detroit Tigers stash of prep pitchers they’ve drafted over the last three years who immediately went down with a major injury. The theory is that they can add a lot more high end pitching talent by taking multiple prep pitchers for overslot bonuses beyond the early rounds, rather than paying full price for just a few college arms each draft. That makes some sense, but it’s a long-term play and so far the risk seems to be heavily outweighing the potential rewards. It will take a few more years to really know, but we’ll be curious to see if the draft strategy starts to tip back toward JUCO and college junior pitchers this year.

Is this the new market inefficiency? Get the big injury out of the way early and go from there? No, no it is not, but the point of taking risky prep pitchers is the chance of hitting a home run because of their upside, and Swanson, like all of them, has a lot of upside. The Tigers are going to need this to pay off over the next few years with a couple of them developing into starters and relievers. For Swanson, that process should begin this season, hopefully by June.

Swanson was taken in the ninth round of the 2024 draft, but the Tigers paid him roughly late third round money, $722,500 to forgo his commitment to Oregon State. The Washington state, Toutle HS, grad is yet another pitcher taken out of the Pacific northwest over the past few years, as the Tigers scout that area heavily.

The 6’3” right-hander was pretty well known on the national senior circuit, but had an inconsistent final year of high school ball. At his best, he showcased big-time stuff with the potential to develop into a very good power pitcher. His delivery was still fairly raw, but Swanson was a reasonably good basketball player as well, and the Tigers like that well rounded athleticism as a predictor of the ability to make mechanical adjustments and develop good balance and a repeatable delivery.

Swanson was up to 95-96 mph as a senior, though more typically sitting 92-94 mph. He has high spin rates on his fourseam fastball, and can spin the slider up to 2800 rpms, which is borderline elite. It’s a two plane, frisbee style slider in the low to mid 80’s, sometimes looking more sweeperish, and at other times snapped off for more bat missing depth. Swanson wasn’t always getting consistent break on it in high school but with consistently it looks like a future plus breaking ball. He has a decent curveball and changeup combination as well, but on draft day they were both somewhat crude by comparison.

The Tigers will presumably be working with Swanson on raising his arm angle, improving his stride, and learning to block himself better with his lead leg. In high school he had a fairly simple delivery without a ton of push off the rubber. As a result he tended to fly open with some excessive head whack, while his arm angle dropped into a low three-quarters position through release. That delivery required a lot of upper body effort to throw hard, and comes with a tendency to sail pitches to his armside. That’s not ideal for efficient velocity and command, and it doesn’t help him use his ability to spin the baseball that well, so adjustments will be required.

In high school, he looked a little bit like long-time farmhand and former Tigers pitcher, Alex Faedo. Despite being a top college starter and a first round pick, Faedo needed a lot of work to use his lower half more effectively and improve his fastball shape with a higher arm slot in the minor leagues. Fortunately, Swanson projects to be a better athlete on the mound, with more velocity projection and a similar quality slider to Faedo. There’s certainly plenty of relief risk in the fact that Swanson has two strong offerings and needs to develop a third pitch, but he’s got a long road ahead just to develop his command. They can worry about his future role later.

Swanson worked in camp after the 2024 draft, so the Tigers did have an opportunity to start coaching him up before his UCL tear in the buildup to the 2025 season. He went on the full season minor league injured list in mid-March last year, but the surgery seems to have occurred before spring camp opened, so hopefully by May or June we’ll see him out in the Complex League, or even in Lakeland if he’s made some nice strides during the rehab process.

We haven’t seen Swanson on a mound since the spring of 2024. At the time he was a hard throwing right-hander with a nasty slider at his best, who generally threw strikes, and who has a lot of physical projection ahead. With nearly two years elapsed, and likely a full two years between his final high school start and his pro debut sometime later this spring, a lot may have changed. At a minimum, we’d like to see Swanson built up physically during the rehab process. There’s a lot of work that can be accomplished without throwing, and we’ll be looking for strength gains and better use of his legs to power his delivery when he returns to action. Without some advancement in that regard, and with a lot of time lost to injury, Swanson’s projections will turn to more of a control over command relief project than the power starting pitcher the Tigers were looking for when they drafted him.

Of course, pitching is a bulk business. The Tigers have paid well overslot bonuses to roughly a dozen prep pitchers in three drafts under Scott Harris. They’ve stockpiled a lot of talented young arms and so far have struggled to keep them healthy and developing. Meanwhile, they’ve done a lot better to date hunting undervalued college and JUCO pitchers. Troy Melton, Jaden Hamm, Jake Miller, and Andrew Sears have all moved quickly into the upper minors, with Melton already having some success, while Hamm’s rough 2025 sinking his stock somewhat for now. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers are encouraged to alter their draft strategy somewhat, while still expecting that some of this youth group will put the injuries behind them and start making progress.

Right now we’re still working with little more information on Swanson than we had on draft day. Anyone can lose a year to injury, so we’ll hold the line here. However, further setbacks will push his grades and projection down, and we really need to see at least some of the expected physical development this year. For now, there’s nothing to do but wait for Swanson’s pro debut and see what has changed and what hasn’t in the interim. Hopefully we see a stronger, more refined young pitcher on the mound, ready to start the work of developing his command and a third pitch to round out his arsenal. The potential in his fastball and slider are really intriguing. Now he needs to start making up for lost time.

Remember 2022? We kept waiting for the Orioles to call up Adley Rutschman, the 2019 #1 draft pick. When Mike Elias chose to bring him up, there was little time to prepare. The move was announced at 8 a.m. on Saturday morning, the same day as Preakness.

Rutschman went hitless in that first game, but heated up quickly after that. In 113 games as a rookie, he had an OPS of .806, looked great behind the plate, and put up a bWAR of 5.4. He was a revelation.

Things have gone downhill since then. Rutschman had a good 2023, but it wasn’t quite as good as his rookie season. He started off well in 2024, but was terrible in the second half. It seemed logical that he was playing with an injury, though he didn’t own up to it.

If he had bounced back in 2025, 2024 could have been written off. But he did not. In fact, he had his worst year as a major leaguer with a bWAR of just 1.9. He hit .220/.307/.366 and was limited to just 90 games due to multiple trips to the IL with oblique strains.

Rutschman felt like a franchise savior in 2022, but he has gotten worse each year. And our young star isn’t so young anymore. He turned 28 years old last month and will be a free agent in just two years.

I am a hopeless Adley dreamer. I just can’t believe that his time as an impact player on the Orioles is already over. Thus, I have high hopes for his 2026 season, even if it makes me nervous to do so. Let’s check out some projections:

• ZiPS: 133 G, 559 PA, 19 HR, 62 BB, .254/.338/.441, 4.7 fWAR
• Baseball Reference: 446 PA, 13 HR, 48 BB, .232/.333/.402

ZiPS is more optimistic here and puts his performance close to his 2023 numbers, although with fewer games played. I would be very happy with that ZiPS line from Rutschman this year. It’s not a superstar year, but it’s very good year. A borderline All-Star year, depending on other factors. Sign me up, although the dreamer in me also hopes for more.

Baseball Reference paints a less friendly picture. 446 plate appearances would shake out to just over 100 games played. And while a SLG% of .402 would be either than he had in either 2024 or 2025, it would still be a disappointing number.

So what are you expecting for Adley Rutschman in 2027? Will he bounce back to be more like the player we hoped to see? Or will he continue to disappoint?

In an interview Thursday March 12, longtime MLB insider Bob Nightengale had some direct statements regarding his thoughts on the 2026 Houston Astros.

Thursday, longtime MLB reporter and insider Bob Nightengale joined AREA 45 on Sportsradio 610. He had a lot of thoughts on the state of the Houston Astros heading into the 2026 season.

You can listen to the full interview here:

https://www.audacy.com/stations/sportsradio610/shows/area-45-with-bijani-and-creighton-0091d/episodes/d8b6a226ec7e

Click the 10pm chapter – Bob Nightengale joins the show.

Among the highlights of what Bob had to say about the Astros:

Just now on #AREA45@SportsRadio610 – @BNightengale said he thinks the #Astros are going into the season as is, and that Houston should play Yordan in OF more.

Also thinks there's no way they should trade Paredes, and believes Walker should have bounce back season.

— Patrick Creighton (@PCreighton1) March 13, 2026

"If Im the #Astros, I do not trade Paredes…" – @Bnightengale just now on #AREA45@SportsRadio610

"They're a much better team with Paredes in the starting lineup."

— Patrick Creighton (@PCreighton1) March 13, 2026

"I expect McCullers to be in the rotation" – @Bnightengale just now on #AREA45@Sportsradio610

— Patrick Creighton (@PCreighton1) March 13, 2026

Just now on #AREA45@Sportsradio610 – @Bnightengale said he thinks the #Astros are at least a #WildCard team.
Said AL West is a 2 team race between Astros and #Mariners.

— Patrick Creighton (@PCreighton1) March 13, 2026

Introduction

As part of my 6 days in Jupiter, I collected lots of observations and I’ve given to breaking them down and passing them along in manageable (ie. readable) chunks. I passed along some nuggets in game recaps if they were short and relevant to pre-, in- or post-game happenings. Last week, I published an article that summarizes what I saw on the back fields in more or less a stream of consciousness format. That left a handful of items that seem to call for more detail, for which I have chosen a short-form article where I focus on a particular topic that may deserve focused attention, but not enough for a full on daily VEB post. I will have two articles up today (this one and one after the game), then two more next week to finish the series.

Short Topic of the Day

The Cardinals signed Ramon Urias to a 1 year, $2m contract after the start of camp. Feb. 21 to be exact. He made his first field appearance in a game less than a week later.

Not everyone had a clear understanding of why they brought him on board. Some questioned the reasoning behind adding to an already crowded infielder docket. Would it take PAs away from another young infielder? Others wondered if a lifetime .686 OPS represented enough thump to meet the Cardinals need to add power from the RH side. I suspected some of this would become more obvious as time rolled by and became something I tried to watch more intently while I was down there.

Initially, I took the signing as a recognition that the Cardinals were not going to find the RH hitting OFer they appeared to desire (and need). Given the lack of depth in that market, this was not a shock. My “hot take” of this move was that it was the proverbial “pivot” off the initial strategy that was not going to bear fruit. As I tried to get a better read, it appeared that there were other nuances to this signing that began to take on the aura that is often associated with a team acquiring a “glue guy”. Reminds me of why I avoid the “hot take” discussions.

One thing not to be overlooked here is that Urias spent 2 years in the Cardinals’ system (2018-2019). That is not a reason to sign a guy in and of itself, but I think it contributes to the broader picture of why they signed him. They know him and they should have a strong understanding the “fit” side of things. Given the aforementioned logjam, that might turn out to be a key consideration.

As I listened to Oli talk about what he is looking for out of this club and various aspects of it, one thing I picked up is he sees pitching as the strength of his team and sees good defense as a way to leverage and protect that strength. In that sense, Urias fits the bill on the defensive side of the ball over at third. He can pick it. He and Winn would make quite a tandem, which would be especially useful with left-handed pitching ground ball getters, of which there are a few on the cusp of MLB in this system. “Protect it”, he says (of the pitching). I get it.

I didn’t get a chance to really see Urias play second, but I suspect he won’t embarrass himself over there, either. His D is real. JJ’s transition to MLB could get choppy at times and a good glove, average hit, good fit kinda guy seems like pretty much what a manager might want to have to backstop that, too.

So, with two young and as yet unproven prospects at third and second, both left-handed hitters, Urias begins to look like pretty good fit. Enough of a good fit that it didn’t take me too much squinting to realize that he may well push both Saggese and Fermin out of the primary back-up infielder role, and he may well push for even more PT on top of that depending now Gorman and/or JJW are doing.

One thing yet to be determined before Spring Training ends is how functional Urias might be at shortstop. He hasn’t played there in several seasons. Saggese played credibly there last summer after Winn went on the IL, but beyond that it is not clear who else could back Winn up. When healthy, Winn doesn’t give up many starts, but teams must always have a Plan B. If Urias can be that it would open a path for Saggese to play every day at Memphis. If not, that would seem to make Fermin’s spot on the roster possibly more tenuous. Thus, some background about why you see those two guys getting reps out in the grass and begin to get a sense that their offensive profile and how they adapt defensively could well drive the final outcome.

As I watched, the more I liked this acquisition. We will see how it all plays out.

Meet the Mets

Sean Manaea wasn’t at his best against the Cardinals yesterday, and the Mets’ lineup only scored when Jorge Polanco hit a solo home run in the team’s spring training loss.

Manaea’s fastball velocity is down. Carlos Mendoza says he’s not concerned about it.

The Mets are planning to retire number 15 for Carlos Beltrán this summer.

Clay Holmes has returned from his brief stint with the US team in the WBC because he wasn’t guaranteed enough playing time to continue ramping up for the regular season.

Luis Robert Jr. made his spring debut yesterday, and the Mets plan to keep him on the field this year by giving him regular days off.

Bobby Ojeda won the Munson award last night.

Nolan McLean is one of the US team’s options for the start in the WBC final on March 17 if the team makes it that far.

Laura Albanese looks at five Mets players other than Franciso Lindor and Juan Soto who could be x-factors for the team this season.

Around the National League East

Grant Holmes dazzled in a spring training appearance for the Braves yesterday.

The Good Phight writes about Aaron Nola’s outing in Italy’s big win over Mexico in the WBC.

Here are some bold predictions about the 2026 Marlins.

Federal Baseball looks at what Brad Lord’s role will be with the 2026 Nationals.

Around Major League Baseball

An Aaaron Judge card from 2013 recently sold for $5.2 million.

Mark DeRosa acknowledged that Italy bailed the United States out with their big win over Mexico after he and the rest of the US team failed to understand the rules about advancing to the quarter-final round.

Speaking of the US team, Clayton Kershaw will be removed from the roster after the quarter-final game against Canada tonight. The team is also adding three relievers now that the pool play stage is over.

Here’s how Brian Cashman blocks out the noise.

Jeff Gold looks at how the WBC managers ranked in their careers as players.

José Berríos was scratched from his spring training start against the Phillies yesterday, and a recent MRI revealed inflammation in his elbow.

Like Clay Holmes, Matt Boyd is leaving the US team so he can continue preparing for the season as a starter with the Cubs.

Jayson Stark has ideas about changing the timing of the WBC and spoke to Tarik Skubal on the subject.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Allison McCague shared the second installment of one of our favorite things about spring training: the King of Spring Training competition.

Brian Salvatore previewed Marcus Semien’s 2026 season.

This Date in Mets History

Happy birthday, Johan Santana! The only pitcher in Mets history to throw a complete game no-hitter turns 47 today.

Good morning. We’re still mostly World Baseball Classic here.

• The big news is still the controversy over Team USA’s manager Mark DeRosa and his handling of the game against Italy. DeRosa tried to defend himself from charges that he didn’t know the situation, but then he got more facts wrong later. Jack Baer with the story.
• Ken Rosenthal seems dubious of DeRosa’s defense, but he writes that Team USA has gotten a second chance and DeRosa needs to stop treating it like an exhibition. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Team USA made three substitutions after pool play, with Will Vest, Tyler Rogers and Tim Hill joining the team.
• DeRosa also announced that Twins ace Joe Ryan will join Team USA if they beat Canada in the quarterfinals.
• Jake Mintz loved the Dominican Republic/Venezuela game, calling it a celebration of Latin American baseball.
• Matt Martell has a recap of the Dominican/Venezuela game for those of us who missed it watching Italy put Team USA into the elimination rounds.
• Buster Olney profiles Junior Caminero, believing his terrific WBC tournament is just a preview of what the budding superstar will do in the near future.
• Brian Murphy and Thomas Harrington have the top highlights from pool play in the WBC.
• What we’ve learned so far in the WBC. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Johnny Flores Jr. ranks the next four WBC games by watchability. (The Athletic free reg. req.)
• Over in Japan, they’re worried that putting all the games on Netflix is hurting the tournament’s popularity. (The Athletic free reg. req.)
• Michael Clair profiles Dane Dunning, who feels the heritage of his American father and Korean mother equally Dunning’s kids got to meet their Korean grandmother for the first time as well.
• Jayson Stark offers his plan to “fix” the World Baseball Classic. (The Athletic sub. req.) It seems like we get these articles every tournament. His plan is the same one that always gets suggested—hold the knockout rounds in July during All-Star Week.
• Maria Torres looks back at the brawl between Canada and Mexico in the 2013 WBC and how it led to changes that have strengthened Canadian baseball. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Yadier Molina hopes that his time managing Puerto Rico will lead to him managing a major league team. Anthony Castrovince with the story. Is Yadi the only person on the planet who doesn’t know that he’s going to manage the Cardinals as soon as they fire Oli Marmol?
• Stepping away from the WBC for a moment, the Reds got bad news as Hunter Greene is expected to be out until July after an operation to remove bone chips in his right elbow. Honestly, I thought that was good news as it mean he didn’t need Tommy John again. But yeah, Reds fans were hoping for better than that.
• Astros closer Josh Hader will start the year on the injured list with biceps inflammation.
• Diamondback Corbin Carroll has started swinging a bat again after hamate surgery. Steve Gilbert reports Carroll is using an axe-handle bat for now.
• R.J. Anderson has ten players returning from injury-filled 2025 seasons.
• Mets left-hander Sean Manaea says he’s not concerned about the drop in velocity this spring. Matt Sullivan with the story.
• Rhett Bollinger checks in on Angels camp and has five takeaways.
• Ryan Blake traces the decline in the Angels to the decline of Mike Trout from superstar to just good.
• Paul Casella looks at how great Pirates top prospect Konnor Griffin has been in Spring Training and what the Pirates still need to see out of him. Sounds like an excuse to game another year of service time out of Griffin.
• Ben Clemens examines how much longer can Aaron Judge be the best hitter in baseball.
• Kiley McDaniel has one breakout player for every MLB team.
• Dan Szymborski has one thing that could go wrong for every projected playoff team. Unsurpringly for the Cubs, it’s starting pitching.
• Bradford Doolittle categorizes every team by both how much they improved over the winter and how many moves they made.
• Matt Snyder ranks the top starting pitchers in the game as to how close they are to being an “ace.”
• Returning to the WBC, Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh says there’s “no beef” between him and teammate Randy Arozarena.
• Maybe. But finally, Patrick Dubuque went and got Jane Austen to write about the incident between Raleigh and Arozarena. Never knew Jane was a baseball fan, but it’s good to see her writing again 209 years after she died. Other great writers would use that as an excuse.

Getting to the Major League level is hard, even for talented players who have excelled at baseball their whole lives.

Staying and playing consistently well is even harder. In addition to the higher level of competition, players also have to adjust to the grind of the MLB schedule. Even with all the talent in the world, a 162-game season is longer than most prospects have ever played before. Finding out how to ensure their bodies handle the grind can be a bit of a learning curve.

This is where Colorado’s training staff comes into play.

They have to monitor and help players make the adjustments for playing in the Big Leagues. According to Scott Murayama, the Rockies coordinator of Major League rehabilitation, it can be a significant shift for some players.

“A lot of times, with younger players, as they’re coming up in minors, they are beat up a little bit. They’re protected a little bit more. Coaches and staff will take them off the field when they have complaints,” Scott Murayama said at Rockies Fest.

“And when they get up here [to the big leagues], they find out, they’re the young guy, and they’ve got to play through. For some of them, it’s a rude awakening because they’re not used to being forced to fight through their soreness or whatever they need. But there’s nobody out on the field who plays 162 games that feels good. You have to figure out what you can play through and what you can’t, and the younger players learn that pretty quick.” 

One of the better 2025 MLB debuts came from Kyle Karros, the Rockies fifth-round pick from the 2023 MLB Draft. Son of former Dodger and Rockies killer Eric Karros, Kyle was called up on Aug. 8. In 43 games, Karros hit .226/.308/.277 with 20 runs scored, nine RBI, one homer and four doubles. He didn’t have the power he flashed in the Minor Leagues, but provided a decent bat and solid glove at third base after Ryan McMahon was traded to the Yankees.

After playing all of 2024 with the High-A Spokane Indians (472 at-bats in 123 games), Karros started 2025 in Double-A Hartford. On July 18, after 55 games with the Yard Goats, he was promoted to the Triple-A Isotopes, where he played 16 games before getting the call.

He started his first eight games on his way to making 40 total starts, and played in 43 of the Rockies final 47 games of the season. It was a lot, even for a player who Colorado’s head athletic trainer and director of medical operations, Keith Dugger, calls “a tremendous young kid.”

“We played 16 days in a row. He’d never done that in his entire life, and he was gassed. [He said] ‘I thought the Big Leagues were just going to be, like normal baseball, you know?’ So we had to teach him,” Dugger said at Rockies Fest.

“Charlie [Blackmon], we had to teach him prior to that. So it’s really good when you have some of these older guys, like Charlie, who’s around some of these young prospects, so they can learn their kind of process that helps them throughout the day.”

Off to a strong start this spring training, hitting .417/.481/.750 with seven RBI, two homers, and seven runs scored in 24 at-bats in nine games, Karros is now primed to be the starting third baseman this season.

Jordan Beck, the Rockies No. 38 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, made his Big League debut on April 30, 2024. He only played in 55 games in his rookie campaign, largely due to suffering a fractured left hand. In 2025, he played in 148 games, which was the most for any Rockie. Beck led the team in stolen bases (19) and was second in hits (139), doubles (27) and runs scored (tied with Mickey Moniak at 62). He was third on the team with 16 homers.

At Rockeis Fest, Beck said the increased playing time made a difference. 

“Seeing guys multiple times, you start playing against guys multiple times, you just start knowing, ‘alright, this is what it looks like.’ You can train as much as you want, but until you get into the box and see what it looks like, you really don’t know,” Beck said. “…I do believe that getting out there and playing and getting consistent at-bats is a huge deal.” 

Beck is part of a group of 12 Rockies who made their debuts in 2024, which tied a team record for most at that time. Colorado immediately broke that record in 2025 as Karros was one of 13 Rockies to make their MLB debuts in 2025.

For a young, rebuilding team, the Rockies will likely see more debuts, as well as the biggest workloads young players have ever experienced in their lives. How the players hold up, mentally and physically, in that process will not only have a big impact on how 2026 plays out, but also on many individual careers and the Rockies long-term success as well.

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Can rebuilt Rockies win 70 games in 2026? | Mailbag | Denver Post ($)

A reader asks Patrick Saunders if he thinks the Rockies can win 27 more times in 2026 than they did in 2025. The Denver Post Rockies beat writer doesn’t think so, saying even 17 more would be a lot of progress. Patrick also shares thoughts on which young Rockie might have the biggest breakout season, what he hopes to see before he retires and more.

Johnston ‘controlling the controllables’ as he fights for roster spot | MLB.com

This is a cool feature on Troy Johnston’s focus on controlling what’s in his hands and letting go of what is not as he battles for a spot with the Rockies at first base. Coming from a successful 2023 season in the Marlins farm system, Johnson now focuses on his bat, glove, preparation and more, in addition to his presence in the clubhouse as a good teammate. The best part is when Johnston talks about his daughter.

Mark Kiszla: ‘I want to be one of best third basemen ever,’ declares Rockies’ Kyle Karros | Denver Gazette ($)

A good feature on the ambitions of the Rockies promising young third baseman and his relationship with his father, Eric Karros. Very relatable and touching.

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Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

An immediate caveat to that title:

I am excited for Minnesota Twins baseball to return. It is my favorite professional sport and I welcome it back into my daily routine each spring like an old friend. I can’t wait to flip on the tube each night or get out to the ballpark(s) this summer. I already have flights booked for Washington, D.C. & Phoenix, AZ road trips.

All my family members would tell you that I am the eternal Twins optimist—just not at the moment. It has been a while since I’ve been as down on the competitive prospects of our hometown nine.

The Pablo Lopez day-one-of-spring-training injury was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me. All offseason, I had convinced myself this squad could compete with a strong starting rotation, speed on the bases, and a little luck from the young-ish bats. Alas, without the SP linchpin of that strategy, all seems lost.

Now I look at the rotation and see one solid bet—Joe Ryan—plus a collection of injury risks & unproven appendages (Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, David Festa, & Zebby Matthews).

Combine this with a relief corps we tabbed the Bullpen of Doom (TM) last year post-deadline. Maybe some of the roughly 100 arms (most lefty) brought in on small or minor league contracts will hit and rejuvenate the place beyond the LCF fence. But with the exception of Anthony Banda, major investments were not made in firemen.

Aside from genuine superstar Byron Buxton, the offense is absolutely loaded with guys harboring wild potential 2026 outcomes: Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Alan Roden, & Matt Wallner. At their best, all those players have looked like solid pieces of a nice offense. At their worst? All have been, at one time or another, disastrous at the plate or in the field. Only Josh Bell (1B/DH) & Victor Caratini (C) were brought in from outside the org to make an immediate impact, and neither name moves the needle all that much.

Maybe the “next wave” of prospects will ascend to The Show in ‘26: Emmanuel Rodriguez (OF), Walker Jenkins (OF), Kaelen Culpepper (SS), Connor Prielipp (LHP), or Kendry Rojas (LHP). But it is of course exceedingly rare for everything to perfectly meld together in one fell swoop and produce a contender.

I know that FanGraphs gives the ‘26 Twins a 11.4% chance to win the AL Central and a 23.7% chance to make the playoffs. But I tend to be Han Solo-ish with odds:

Ultimately, for me it comes down to the unlikelihood of the ‘26 Twins having everything come up aces: Buxton & Ryan health, complete bullpen transformation, positive regression on all batters, & prospects making an impact. The nature of MLB’s grind usually necessitates some things inevitably bust. This squad needs to hit on every 21.

The shred of hope I’m clinging to: fun seasons like ‘15, ‘19, & ‘22 (until Sept) came from little expectations. Perhaps the ‘26 gang can do something similar. They better bring their lucky deck of cards.

At The Star, Jaylon Thompson writes that we shouldn’t sleep on Nick Mears, the other player acquired in the Angel Zerpa trade:

Mears has great analytical numbers. Per Statcast, he recorded a 33.5% chase rate — ranking in the 93rd percentile among qualified major-league pitchers. He also demonstrated good command, with just 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings.

Mears is effective with his fastball and slider. The heater averaged 95.4 mph while the slider— which registered a 38.4% whiff rate last year — is his put-away pitch.

Pete Grathoff collected some Sopranos memes concerning Vinnie’s three-homer game at the WBC.

Need more Vinnie (and Bobby) goofiness? Dino nuggets? Mac-n-cheese? Vinnie wearing the apron for cooking that? Shut the box?

Royals teammates Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino actually live in the same house together

During Spring Training for the last two years, they’ve been roommates in a house that they call “The Wittz-Carlton”

They live with a third roommate, Barry (Bobby’s dog). They drive a… pic.twitter.com/BLNRauxNjO

— MLB (@MLB) March 12, 2026

Here’s the whole video. About 6 minutes in is the clip they released a couple of weeks ago where Vinnie tries to guess the type of pitch. He’s wrong almost every time. For being a student of hitting and a really enjoyable one to listen to, he’s awful at guessing them.

Dillon Seckington at Fox 4 KC tracks how well the Royals are doing at the WBC.

AT MLB.com, Brian Murphy and Thomas Harrigan make a (dubious) list of their Top 10 WBC moments (so far). Somehow an Aaron Judge groundout is on the list, but nothing from the Netherlands v Nicaragua list is on it. If you didn’t see it, NIC led NED 3-1 with 2 outs in the 9th when Ozzie Albies hit the first walkoff homer in WBC history.

We don’t have a lot of feature stories. Aside from the reliable Jaylon Thompson, you can probably tell I was reaching a bit. How about some listicles?

Matt Synder at CBS Sports lists two Royals in his ace tiers:

Looking to return to ace form – Cole Ragans, Royals – After a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts in 186 ⅓ innings in 2024, I threw Ragans all the way up to the top tier. He was ravaged by injury and poor fortune last season. He also struck out 98 in just 61 ⅔ innings.

Possibly an ace, possibly not – Kris Bubic, Royals – He looked every bit an ace last season with a 2.55 ERA and essentially a strikeout per inning. A shoulder injury ended his season in July, though. He only made 20 starts.

At MLB.com, Bradford Doolittle looks at what teams has busy winters and which had more boring ones and what it says about the team:

Tier 2: Middle of the pack teams –

Passive offseason with no major splashes

Description: We believe in our squad, based either on a longer-term track record or the progress of a young group that’s maturing. Despite a so-so season, we’re riding with these guys.

2026 teams: Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals

What it means: The most successful teams from this group have been clubs that have knocked on the door for several seasons before breaking through. This includes the 1979 Pirates, 1980 Phillies, 1985 Royals and, to a lesser extent, the 2010 Giants…

At Fangraphs, Michael Baumann looks at “When Chases and Whiffs Don’t Lead to Outs” and a 2025 Royal made the list:

What was wrong with Ragans might be even more simple; he tweaked his groin early in 2025, then strained his rotator cuff in his first start after coming back from the first injury. That shoulder issue kept him out until mid-September, leaving the Royals’ presumptive no. 1 starter with a highly disjointed and injury-plagued record. Assuming his shoulder and groin remain in working order, he should be just fine in 2026.

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Blog time!

At Inside the Crown ($), David Lesky mailbags.

Do you have any concerns about the outfield given the lackluster performances of Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins this Spring? -Hokius

…But, honestly, to have watched a team have the worst outfield offense in baseball last year and then not bring in someone who was more of a sure thing had me concerned the whole time. The reality is what I wrote a few weeks ago. The outfield being anything more than fine depends on Jac Caglianone a whole lot more than it depends on any of their acquisitions. It’s both a scary spot to be because relying on young players is risky and relying on a guy who looked so bad last year is scary, but also an exciting spot because of the upside Caglianone has. So yes, I’d say concerns is the right word. I’m not exactly worried, but I have concerns.

Hokius, you say? Most of the questions are about the outfield. Then again, that could be the title of any Royals offensive preview this year: “Most of the questions are about the outfield”.

This was from a couple of days ago, but I didn’t see a link to it. Craig Brown looks at a potential rotation battle:

With Noah Cameron’s struggles this spring (7.2 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO), there’s an opportunity for Bergert to push his way into a conversation for the fifth starter role. There’s obviously still some work to do on his part and if Cameron gets right over his next couple of outings it’s a moot competition anyway, but there’s a scenario that’s not so far-fetched where a battle for that final rotation start gets hot.

Royals Data Dugout with a new hitting model: Lumber+

Lumber+ is my new Statcast-based hitter skill model that’s free to use — just click the image above. Designed to measure talent rather than production, it’s scaled so 100 = league average and each standard deviation roughly = 5.

…The big question you might (or should) ask — does it work and does it mean anything?

The answer: Yes, or at least I believe so. In backtesting 2023 and 2024 data, Lumber+ proved to be quite predictive of next-season success, using wRC+ as the end target.

At Royals Keep, Kevin O’Brien looks at Pasquantino’s big night at the WBC:

Pasquantino has traditionally been known to be a slow starter at the plate. Last season, he hit .177 with a 49 wRC+ in 124 plate appearances in March/April, according to Fangraphs splits. That said, he was fine for the remainder of the year, as evidenced by his 116 wRC+ in 2025. It was the same story in 2024 to a degree. His 96 wRC+ in March/April was the worst monthly wRC+ of the 2024 season (his overall wRC+ was 109).

Perhaps the World Baseball Classic has allowed Pasquantino to knock off the rust earlier in the spring (he has more at-bats to go in the knockout round, as they play Puerto Rico in the first round). Hopefully, with this experience and historic surge at the plate, he will be more ready to produce in the first month of play for the Royals, which would be atypical of his career norms.

Blog Roundup:

• Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep: Royals Position Players Standing Out in Various Ways in World Baseball Classic
• Cory Sparks at Royals Keep: Royals Top 20 Prospects Breakdown, 16-20 (video)
• Caleb Moody at KOK: Vinnie Pasquantino put poor spring training start behind him with massive WBC night
• Jacob Milham at KOK: Royals farm system currently defined by intriguing wave of teenaged prospects

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Unfortunately, I’m punting on OT this week. I looked at the calendar and realized I’m just going to be watching basketball for 12 hours next Thursday. My current OT was still only about half done and there’s going to be little time to work on a new one next week so it’s just getting delayed. Here’s our potential schedule for the next few weeks:

• 2026.03.20 Movie reviews
• 2026.03.27 Opening Day Recap around MLB
• 2026.04.03 Asian Baseball I: CPBL
• 2026.04.10 Asian Baseball I: KBO
• 2026.04.17 Asian Baseball I: NPB
• 2026.04.24 (working on a couple of ideas – I’ve been wanting to do an art-themed one for a while, but it’s nowhere near finished)
• 2026.05.01 Movie reviews
• 2026.05.08 (OUT)

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Let’s revisit Star Fox as we haven’t in a while. We listed all previous levels used back in 2024.

How about Sector X?

Every MLB season gives us something new, but 2026’s changes will be quite drastic. The automated ball-strike (ABS) challenge system will take center stage this year, as pitchers, catchers, and hitters will all have the ability to double-check whether or not a called strike was actually a strike. I’m a big fan of the challenge system over pure roboumps, in large part because it introduces a new tactic: who gets to challenge, how frequently does a team challenge, and how good are you at it?

In short, a team’s approach to ABS will fall somewhere inside this matrix:

For our definitions, we’ll use liberal and conservative to describe how many players on a given team are allowed to challenge at all. Some of the early returns in spring training have indicated that pitchers, because they’re naturally falling away from the plate, have poor angles of view and shouldn’t be allowed to challenge. Some hitters have excellent command of the strike zone and others are free swingers; Juan Soto should be allowed to ask for reviews on close pitches, but I’m not sure Javy Baez should.

How readily you challenge falls on that x-axis, rarely or frequently. Every team has a limited number of challenges, but some — or indeed even some individuals — will no doubt choose to keep a challenge in reserve for a hypothetical scenario later in the game. I’m not a fan of this personally. Yes, you may want to have a review in your pocket for a 50/50 call in the ninth inning when you’re down by a run, but if an overturned strike gives you a 3-1 count in the 5th and you break the frame open with a big hit, you never run into that close ninth inning. There’s no way of telling when the Big At Bat is in a game, so don’t let a possible moment go by and end the game with a challenge to give.

And then of course there’s the thing that matters most, our inclined axis, are you good at challenging? Your approach to the two above axes probably derives from where you are here. If your team consistently wins more challenges than it loses, you should probably allow more hitters and catchers to call for review, and you should probably be more ready to use those reviews earlier in the game. If your team consistently gets these reviews wrong, the opposite will happen — pare down who is allowed to challenge, and keep one in your pocket.

I think for April most teams will be pretty high on our x and y axis, to determine where on our inclined axis they fall. For the Yankees in particular, I expect them for most of the season to be pretty liberal in who is allowed to challenge, but in the midpoint in how readily they do it. Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman are far from the most aggressive people running MLB teams, and whether you like it or not the Yankee teams they’ve constructed have always had multiple redundancies — Paul Goldschmidt back again just in case Ben Rice can’t hit lefties, things like that. That kind of behavior indicates to me that they’ll prefer to keep a challenge in hand in case of that big ninth inning moment, even if just about anyone 1-through-9 will be allowed to use one review earlier in the game.

Since the last round of changes to the replay review system in 2015, Aaron Boone has been the fifth-most-successful manager, with just over 60 percent of his challenges being won, and he’s had far more games under his belt than anyone else in the top 10 except Alex Cora. Now this isn’t really credit to Boone himself but rather the group the Yankees have assembled that advise the manager on whether to challenge or not, but it should give us confidence that the ABS review will be a strength for the club in 2026. There’s also the small factor of them rostering the player who has had more incorrect strikes called against him than any other player since he debuted, and I’m holding out hope for a .600 OBP season from a challenge-enabled Aaron Judge.