The second half is underway, and I promise you there is still time to make up ground in your fantasy leagues. If you’ve dealt with injuries or poor performance or just can’t quite seem to string together consistent success, there is still time to make tweaks to get your team to a title.
Similarly, there is still time for players to make tweaks to find another level of success. For some, we’ve been seeing the groundwork laid for that success already.
In this article, I’m going to highlight players who have failed to meet our expectations in the first half. Some of them are guys who have battled injuries, others haven’t quite found their groove, and others have given us some elements of fantasy goodness but are due for more. All of them are players who I think will have far more fantasy value after the All-Star break than they did before.
In order to narrow the scope, this article does not feature injured players or rookies who will be making their debut after the All-Star break (like Shane McClanahan or Bubba Chandler) it also doesn’t include players who have played well but might gain value in a new role (like Jack Perkins). I'm simply focusing on players who either struggled in the first half or had major MLB opportunities in the first half, but are players I think are due for much better months in August and September.
Second-Half Hitters to Target
We'll start with two veteran shortstops, who are still providing some value but not as much as I think they'll give you in the second half: Oneil Cruz and Corey Seager.
Oneil Cruz - SS: Pittsburgh Pirates
Cruz came out of the gates hot this season and has 16 home runs and 29 steals on the season, so there has been plenty of fantasy goodness. However, since May 1st, he's slashing .192/.296/.356 in 57 games with a nearly 35% strikeout rate. That's actively hurting you in batting average leagues. However, even in that stretch, Cruz has a 21.4% barrel rate and 96 mph average exit velocity. The approach is also not that much different than what we've seen from him as his 40% pull rate is right in line with his season-long averages, and his 33.3% flyball rate is just about 5% below what we were seeing from him earlier. What's more, from May 12th on, his Process+ score is 104, where 100 is the league average. Process+ is a Pitcher List stat that shows “The combined value of a hitter’s Decision Value, Contact Ability, and Power,” so it's a stat I like for showing hitters who are making good decisions and making enough contact and quality contact. If Cruz can keep his power and speed but hit something closer to .240 in the second half, that could make him a major fantasy asset.
Corey Seager - SS, Texas Rangers
Seager is another player who is not quite living up to our elevated expectations for him. From June 1st on, Seager is slashing .248/.404/.465 with seven home runs and 18 RBI in 36 games. However, that comes with a 16.5% barrel rate and a 125 Process+ score. He's already started to turn it around in July, but I think there still might be a bit of a window to buy low on Seager in a trade before he puts up big numbers in the second half. I think he could double his home run total in the remaining games while also putting up a .280 average and good counting stats.
Otto Lopez - 2B/SS, Miami Marlins
Lopez is another middle infielder who I think is in for a good second half. He's been pretty good already this season, slashing .250/.320/.392 with 10 steals and a surprising 10 home runs. The power is not something I expected from a guy with just an 88 mph average exit velocity; however, his xSLG of .481 is much higher than his .392 slugging percentage, and his Pull Air% is not great, but better than anything he's posted before. His 7.9% barrel rate is the best of his career, and his 113 Process+ from May 12th on suggests that Lopez's .291 xBA might be closer to what we see from him in the second half.
Dominic Canzone - OF, Seattle Mariners
Since Canzone has been called up, all he's done is mash with a .319/.340/.564 slash line to go along with six home runs, 10 RBI, and a 15.8% barrel rate in 30 games. His appearance on this list isn't me saying that there is more in the tank here, but it's simply me saying that what we're seeing isn't that much of a fluke. He's pulling the ball almost 10% more than last year, and so even though he isn't lifting the ball as much, he's making much more damaging contact. Canzone's bat speed is faster this season, and he's closed his stance a bit and started attacking the ball out in front of the plate a bit more. If Canzone is still available on your waiver wires, he could be in for a strong second half.
Colt Keith - 1B/2B, Detroit Tigers
I've written about Colt Keith a few times in my waiver wire articles, mentioning that Keith is hitting .358/.417/.585 with two home runs, 11 runs scored, and six RBI over his last 15 games. His Process+ score is 120 from May 12th on, and I recorded a video talking about Keith's recent surge, so check that out here.
Jac Caglianone - 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals
I also recorded a video on Caglianone, suggesting that he could be in for a strong summer. He hasn't had great results so far as a pro, but he has just a 21.7% strikeout rate with an 11.1% barrel rate and 89.1 mph average exit velocity. His 102 Process+ score from May 12th on confirms that he's not really being overmatched at the big league level, and his xBA of .259 and xSLG of .462 is far better than his .140 average and .264 slugging percentage. If Cags was dropped in your league, it might be time to add him.
Max Muncy - SS/3B, Athletics
Muncy may be one of the riskiest picks on here because he has the least evidence to support his potential breakout. His expected stats and Process+ score don't jump off the charts, and his contact metrics are only trending up in a small sample size. However, those results have been good for him lately, and I think it could be tied to a slight approach change. Over his last 14 games, Muncy is slashing .288/.339/.577 with four home runs, eight runs scored, seven RBI, and a 16.2% barrel rate. If you use Statcast's Swing Path data, you can see that Muncy's Ideal Attack Angle has skyrocketed to nearly 60% in July. Some of that could be tied to adjusting how far out in front of the plate he's making contact and also how wide his stance is, opening it up slightly after closing it off a lot in June. This could all be nothing, but we've seen young players adjust as the season goes on, so maybe that's what Muncy is doing.
Will Benson - OF, Cincinnati Reds
Another player I'm just going to trust the numbers on here is Will Benson. We've seen Benson flash great raw tools before, but he has never been able to maintain consistent stretches of MLB production outside of his 2023 season. However, he jumped out to me for a few reasons here. For starters, his .282 xBA is much better than his .223 average, and his .538 xSLG is far superior to his .427 slugging percentage. We know that expected stats aren't always a good barometer of future success; however, Benson also has a 117 Process+ score from May 12th on, which suggests that his overall decisions and contact have been good as well. He still has a 16% swinging strike rate, which worries me, but he's swinging more often this year, which has allowed him to slightly reduce his strikeout rate by giving himself more opportunities to make contact. I'm not sure if this will work, but in deeper leagues it might be worth a shot.
Jesus Sanchez - OF, Miami Marlins
Much like Benson, Sanchez is a platoon bat who will often sit against left-handed pitching. Unlike Benson, Sanchez has never really had major strikeout issues and has produced more consistent results. He's hitting just .259 on the season with seven home runs, but his 112 Process+ from May 12th on is well above the 100 league average mark. He has a 92 mph average exit velocity and 11.7% barrel rate, so he's making tons of strong contact. He is also chasing far less outside of the zone and making a career-high 76% contact rate. It would not surprise me if we see a power surge from Sanchez in the second half.
Nick Gonzales - 2B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Gonzales doesn't have much speed and hits in a mediocre offense, so his fantasy upside will be limited; however, I wanted to highlight him here because his .289 xBA and 110 Process+ from May 12th on tell us that Gonzales could be a batting average asset in the second half of the season. In July, Gonzales has taken a pretty drastic opposite field approach, making contact -4.4 inches behind the front of the plate after being out over 10 inches in front of the plate earlier in the season. That has led to a massive spike in his Ideal Attack Angle%, and while it will limit his power ceiling, it could mean more line drives and hits fall in.
Daylen Lile - OF, Washington Nationals
Lile is not the young Nationals hitter that many people are talking about, but some interesting things are happening under the hood here. His .306 xBA is far better than his .234 average, and I've been impressed by his 14% strikeout rate and 5.7% swinging strike rate in his brief MLB debut. He makes really good swing decisions, which is partly why he's posted a 103 Process+ score from May 12th on. He stole 25 bases in the minor leagues last season and had 12 steals in 47 games in the minors this year, so if Lile can start to get on base more often, he should be able to run and help you in stolen bases as well. It's worth a gamble in deeper leagues.
Josh Bell - 1B, Washington Nationals
We'll end with a veteran, Josh Bell, who has been stepping it up lately. Bell has posted a 117 Process+ from May 12th on, but it wasn't until the middle of June that that process started to lead to tremendous results. From June 10th on, Bell is hitting .296/.369/.429 with two home runs, 10 runs scored, 13 RBI, and a 9.3% barrel rate over that span. Bell is no longer a 25-30 home run guy, but we could easily see 8-10 home runs from him the rest of the way with a good batting average. He could also be traded to a contender as a switch hitting first base option, and that could boost his fantasy value as well.
Second-Half Starting Pitchers to Target
Dylan Cease - San Diego Padres
Cease is the most obvious "buy low" target you can get. We know he's a streaky pitcher, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go on a hot stretch, but his underlying stats tell us it could happen as well. He's posted a 16.6% SwStr% and 20.7% K-BB% in 56.1 innings since May 15th, which has helped him post a 3.36 SIERA that's far better than his 5.11 ERA. Most people in your league are expecting Cease to bounce back, so you likely can't get him cheap, but I would try to get shares of Cease if I can.
Tanner Bibee - Cleveland Guardians
Bibee is a less likely bounceback, and he may not be the SP2 in fantasy baseball that we expected. However, his pitch mix is starting to click with his three fastball variations, and his last start before the break gave us a bit of a sign that he could be turning things around. Even if he doesn't become an ace, he deserves to pitch better than he has. He has an 11.4% SwStr% and 17.3% K-BB% in 64 innings since May 15th, which has led to a 3.65 SIERA that's better than his 4.64 ERA. I'm going to bank on the sinker, cutter, four-seamer combination helping him to lower his ERA closer to that SIERA mark, but I'm not sure we're going to get tons of strikeouts.
Zebby Matthews - Minnesota Twins
I wrote about Zebby Matthews as a pitcher I think could end the season in the top 25 starting pitchers, so clearly I've been in the bag for him all season. However, he has also deserved better in his big league innings with a 12.1% SwStr% and 20.5% K-BB% in 19 innings since May 15th. That has helped him post a 3.39 SIERA despite his 5.21 ERA. He looked electric in his Triple-A rehab start last week, and I'd be stashing him now.
Richard Fitts - Boston Red Sox
I'm also fully in the bag for Fitts and have been since he showed increased velocity and an expanded pitch mix this spring. Since coming off the IL, he has been sitting 97 mph on his four-seam fastball with his secondaries starting to get more consistent. He's posted a 13.2% SwStr% in 16.2 innings since May 15th, with a 3.84 SIERA that is much better than his 5.40 ERA. I think he was done a disservice by the Red Sox rushing him back from the IL, and it wouldn't shock me if he keeps his rotation spot for the remainder of the season.
Frankie Montas - New York Mets
We also know that Montas will keep his rotation spot for the remainder of the season, but I think he's probably more of a deep league option. He's posted a 5.03 ERA in his first 19.2 innings, but that has come with a 12.3% SwStr%, 16% K-BB%, and 3.92 SIERA. He pitches on a good team in a good pitcher's park, and so it wouldn't surprise me if Montas were a good enough deep league asset.
Michael Soroka - Washington Nationals
I also think Michael Soroka is in for a better second half. His 10.1% SwStr% since May 15th isn't overly impressive, but that comes with a 19.5% K-BB% and 3.45 SIERA. I wrote about Soroka’s changes with a new arm slot and curveball usage earlier his month, and I think he's somebody who could really turn it around in the second half.
Brandon Walter - Houston Astros
Brandon Walter is another pitcher I wrote about earlier this season, and I've been impressed with what he's done so far. He's registered just an 11.9% SwStr% but a 23% K-BB% and 2.98 SIERA in 40.2 innings this season. He relies more on command and deception than overpowering stuff, which makes him a bit riskier than some of the other names on this list, but I think his spot in the rotation is rather secure, and I could see him being a streamer in 12-team leagues and a locked-in option in deeper formats.
Joey Cantillo - Cleveland Guardians
If you're looking for the inverse of Walter, you could turn to Cantillo, who seems to have a rotation spot locked up with Luis L. Ortiz undergoing an MLB investigation for a gambling infraction. Since coming back as a starter, Cantillo has a 14.9% SwStr% and 20.7% K-BB% in 12.2 innings with a 3.33 SIERA. His changeup can be a truly dominant pitch, and he gets elite extension on his fastball, so there is enough here to tie up right-handed hitters and make Cantillo a good high-upside play for the second half.
