LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 30: Edgardo Henriquez #60 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches during the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, July 30, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Nicole Vasquez/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
After taking two of three from the Seattle Mariners, the Los Angeles Dodgers now welcome the surging Boston Red Sox. Boston now sits in third place in the AL East, seven games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Their record in 57-51, which oddly has been their record after 108 games each of the last four seasons.
After starting off the season abysmally, they have now won seven series in a row. Their bullpen has been a big part of that, having five relievers in the 92nd percentile or higher in expected ERA. It is anchored by their closer, All-Star Aroldis Chapman, who along Greg Weissert could be unavailable for Friday’s game after heavy usage in the previous two games against the Athletics.
The Dodgers will be using a bullpen game for the series opener. Edgardo Henriquez will start the game. Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz most likely won’t be involved as they too had heavy usage their last two games.
L.A. is going with a bullpen game to best preserve their six-man rotation due to Shohei Ohtani being out of it as he deals with a bicep issues. Ohtani was also out of the lineup in Thursday night’s game but is expected to be back for Friday night’s game.
Ranger Suarez will start for the Red Sox. The left hander is 4-3 on the season with a 3.02 ERA. He only threw 64 pitches in his last outing, Sunday against the Toronto Blue Jays. Before that, his last outing was July 5th where he only went 2.2 innings as he is coming back from an injury and working his way back up to speed. He should be around 75-80 pitches or five innings on Friday.
Jarren Duran of the Red Sox has had a frustrating season, and some of that is beginning to show on the field and with his teammates. In Thursday night’s game against the Athletics, Durran was seen very visibly upset with Willson Contreras for not tagging up on a fly ball Duran hit to left field. However, that fly ball wasn’t deep enough to get Contreras home from third, and he was held up by the third base coach.
The Red Sox have an interim manager, Chad Tracy, after Alex Cora was fired in April after starting the season 9-17.
DENVER, COLORADO - JULY 21: Mickey Moniak #22 of the Colorado Rockies hits a sixth inning solo home run against the Washington Nationals at Coors Field on July 21, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Building a roster in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains is difficult. The Rockies made the playoffs in just their third year with the “Blake Street Bombers” and they did win the pennant in 2007, falling to the Red Sox. But they have struggled throughout much of the rest of their history because of their unique location. Being a mile high makes it very, very difficult to develop a pitching staff.
The Rockies are on their way to an eighth consecutive losing season. They hired Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes to turn the franchise around last year, and they have gone with a younger roster – Brett Sullivan is the only position player over the age of 30.
Kansas City Royals (46-64) vs. Colorado Rockies (42-67) at Coors Field, Denver, CO
Baseballs at Coors Field are kept in a humidor to mitigate some of effects of playing in dry, thin air. But the park still plays as the best offensive environment in baseball. Rockies hitters are batting .270/.337/.442 at home, .237/.310/.393 on the road.
Hunter Goodman has taken over from Cal Raleigh as the “power-hitting catcher having a monster season”, with 31 bombs that are tied for third in all of baseball. Goodman also strikes out a third of the time, the second-highest rate among hitters, and he has the highest swinging strike rate in baseball at 18 percent. Rookie Cole Carigg is hitting .324/.390/.559 over his last 20 games. Mickey Moniak is hitting .312/.351/.681 at home with 13 of his 17 home runs at Coors Field. Left-handed hitting Jake McCarthy is hitting .337/.374/.535 against southpaws.
Ezequiel Tovar swings at 61.4 percent of all pitches, the highest rate among qualified hitters. Troy Johnston is hitting .189/.300/.230 over his last 29 games. Eduoard Julien is a career .246/.343/.393 in 23 games against the Royals.
The Rockies fare well defensively around the field except with Julien and Willi Castro at second and Tyler Freeman in the outfield. Goodman has thrown out 21 percent of would-be basestealers.
Tomyuki Sugano was signed as a free agent last winter and has put up the best ERA of all the starters. He has a reasonable 4.15 ERA in eight starts this year, and has won six of his last seven starts. He has a strikeout rate of just 13.8 percent, second-lowest in baseball for anyone with 90+ innings pitched. He mixes in a splitter, four-searmer, sinker, cutter, slider, sweeper, and curve.
Ryan Feltner has given up 17 runs in 11.2 innings over his last three starts, all losses. Opposing hitters are batting .271/.349/.576 against him in the first inning. Opponents are hitting .326 against his 94.9 mph fastball.
Kyle Freeland is the longest-tenured Rockies player with reliever Antonio Senzatela, with both having been with the team since 2017. He led the league in losses last year, and his 7.34 ERA is the worst in baseball for anyone with at least 90 innings pitched. His fastball is down to 91.7 mph, and opponents are hitting .376 against the pitch.
The Rockies have a 4.99 ERA from their bullpen, which is fourth-worst in baseball, but still better than the Royals. Jordan Roman was released by the Angels in late April, yet he still leads both the Angels and Rockies in saves with four apiece. Brennan Bernadino has not given up an earned run in his last 21 outings, covering 19.1 innings. Lefties are hitting .225/.287/.347 against Senzatela.
The Rockies have a terrible pitching staff, but they do have some exciting young hitters who can put up some runs at home. That is bad news for Royals pitchers, who have been struggling in the dog days of summer. No lead will be safe in this series, and you may see rosters further decimated over the weekend as both teams should be sellers at the trade deadline.
The weekend is officially here, and so is a loaded Friday slate. I found three of my favorite MLB player props to help kick things off on the right foot.
Let's dive right into my three favorite MLB player props for July 31.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Eric Fedde
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
-157
CJ Abrams
Over 1.5 Total Bases
+120
Hunter Goodman
Over 1.5 Total Bases
-116
Eric Fedde Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-157)
After coming off back-to-back extra-inning wins, the Chicago White Sox head to St. Petersburg to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The White Sox will send right-hander Eric Fedde to the mound, who has endured his fair share of struggles this season.
Those issues have been even more apparent on the road, where he owns just a 17.2% strikeout rate. On top of that, he has posted an 18% whiff rate and a 22.7% chase rate outside the zone away from home.
Those numbers have remained fairly consistent over his last few starts, which is why I like Fedde to stay under his strikeout prop tonight.
According to Batters-Box, Fedde has stayed under this number in 56.25% of his 48 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout percentage. In 28 road starts with a poor matchup rating, he has stayed under in 57.14% of those outings.
With how contact-heavy the Rays are, this sets up as a prime spot for Fedde to finish Under 3.5 strikeouts.
I would play this down to -160.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Rays.TV
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
One of the hottest hitters in baseball right now is Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams. The young star enters Friday slashing .412/.863/1.330 across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
On top of that, he has generated a nearly 50% hard hit rate and a 15.6% barrel rate during that stretch.
Abrams draws Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder this evening, a pitcher against whom he owns 100% arsenal coverage.
Elder has been unable to slow down left-handed hitters all season. Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, they own a .431 xBA, .833 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA, while producing a 47.5% hard hit rate and a 15% barrel rate.
The Nationals offense has been one of the hottest in baseball over the last few weeks, and I think that momentum continues tonight. Abrams is in another excellent spot to clear his total bases prop.
His elite rating trends are not the strongest, so I would shop for the best number available, but I'd still play this down to +110.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BravesVsn, NATS
Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-116)
Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman has been in a bit of a slump over his last few games. However, he is still barreling the baseball and making plenty of hard contact, and I think he is in a great spot to turn things around against Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Wacha.
Across Goodman's last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a .571 SLG, .838 OPS, and a 37.5% HR/FB rate. On top of that, he has barreled the baseball 25% of the time while producing a 41.7% hard hit rate.
My biggest concern with the Rockies catcher is his strikeout rate, but Wacha owns just a 17% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, making that less of a concern.
Wacha has also run into plenty of issues against right-handed hitters. The last 30 he has faced have produced just a 30% ground-ball rate, along with a 47.8% hard-hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate.
Those hitters also own a .447 xBA, .814 xSLG, and .366 xwOBA during that span.
If this game were being played anywhere other than Coors Field, Goodman would likely be plus money to go over 1.5 total bases. Instead, we have to pay the Coors tax.
I would still play this down to -120.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Royals.TV
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 352-684, -13.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Freddy Peralta, who was initially listed as the Mets' Friday night starter against the Marlins at Citi Field has been scratched with trade interest from contenders picking up, SNY MLB Insider Chelsea Janes confirmed.
Kodai Senga will start on Friday in place of Peralta.
While Peralta was originally theoretically set to start on Friday, interim manager Andy Green was a bit cagey about it while speaking to reporters on Thursday, and never said the Peralta start was set in stone.
Peralta, a pending free agent, is a near lock to be traded ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline.
The right-hander starting on Friday for New York made little sense, since the risk of an injury far outweighed the reward of a strong start increasing his value.
Despite underwhelming results in his first (and likely only) season with the Mets, Peralta is expected to be one of the most sought-after starting pitchers ahead of the deadline, along with teammate Clay Holmes.
The top starter on the market is Tarik Skubal, who has been connected to the Brewers, Dodgers, Rays, and others.
As far as Peralta, his strong history (he had a 3.59 ERA ahead of this season, including a 2.70 ERA in 2025) should take precedent over his down 2026 as the Mets seek a proper return.
According to Janes, the Mets' asking price has been high.
Because of the trade of A.J. Minter to the Twins, New York has an open spot on the 26-man roster, which could theoretically be used to promote a pitcher for Friday -- whether that pitcher starts or comes out of the bullpen.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 20: Freddy Peralta #51 of the New York Mets throws a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on July 20, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Mets and White Sox reportedly discussed a trade that would send Freddy Peralta to the South Side of Chicago. Michael Marino reports that White Sox prospects George Wolkow and Boston Smith were among the players discussed in the return. Marino also stated that the talks have stalled a bit, and the Mets are in discussions with other clubs as well.
Peralta, who came to the Mets in the offseason along with Tobias Myers from the Brewers in exchange for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, is in his age 30 season and has been a major disappointment for the Mets in his 22 starts with the club. He’s set to start tonight in what is essentially a showcase, hoping to goose his trade value a bit in what is his likely final last Mets start.
Peralta is the owner of a 4.99 ERA and a 83 ERA+ over 113.2 innings. He’s at the highest walk rate and lowest strikout rate since he’s been a starter full time, but also has the highest BABIP against of his career, so luck may be a piece of his poor performance.
The two prospects mentioned in the report are both consensus top 2o prospects for the White Sox, with Woklov as the 15th best in their system by our sister site South Side Sox in their pre-season rankings. Smith didn’t join the organization until a trade with the Nationals in late March, so he isn’t ranked by South Side Sox, but the catching prospect was listed as their Minor League Player of the Month for July.
ATLANTA, GA - MAY 22: Bryce Elder #55 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning during the game against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on May 22, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After the Atlanta Braves ended up winning the impromptu home run derby to start this four-game series against the Washington Nationals, the Braves will now be looking to ensure a split as Bryce Elder will be getting the ball to start Friday night’s contest.
In more ways than one, Elder will be looking to pick up where he left off. In general, he’s been doing fine over his past couple of starts — he went six innings against the Padres and only gave up two runs and then he racked up eight strikeouts against the Orioles back on July 25 with just one earned run allowed and two runs allowed total. That’s a pretty solid start to the second half of the season for Elder, especially considering how badly he was wobbling for his final four starts heading into the break.
He’ll also be looking to continue being successful against the Nationals. Elder last faced the Nats back on May 22 and that’s when he threw another solid six innings with just one run allowed and four strikeouts. Naturally, the one run was conceded was a dinger to lead off the sixth inning where (surprise, surprise) he left a hanger right down the middle for Curtis Mead to send to the moon. With that being said, a lot has changed since then (Mead is now with the Red Sox and the walk-off hero from that night (Chadwick Tromp) is now with the Orioles) so it’s hard to really extrapolate a result tonight from back then. With that being said, Elder can ill-afford to leave any hangers for this homer-happy Nationals lineup to feast upon or else things could get sideways again.
Meanwhile, the Braves are going to try to figure out Foster Griffin and the results have been mixed for the Braves so far this season when it comes to solving this particular problem of a pitcher. Back in April, the Braves managed to score three runs off of Griffin but the Nationals came out swinging against Reynaldo López and the back of the bullpen (which included Ian Hamilton and Joel Payamps back then) so that game was a wash for Atlanta. It got worse for the Braves on May 24, since Griffin completely shut Atlanta down with six strong innings where he only gave up three hits, walked one batter and didn’t give up any runs against the Braves. That was a rare example of the Nationals winning a low-scoring game as the Braves were unable to figure anything out at the plate against Griffin.
The Nationals have a grand total of maybe three pitchers who they can genuinely trust on a regular basis and Griffin is one of them. Four pitchers for Washington have pitched more than 100 innings so far and two of them are actually good (Griffin and Cavalli) and two of them have negative fWAR for the season (Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas) so Atlanta’s actually going to have to be on top of things at the plate if they want to make sure that they’re going to take another win this evening. Washington’s lineup could break out at any moment so it’ll be huge for the Braves to figure out a way to do some damage against Griffin in tonight’s game.
On paper (or at least according to FanGraphs), the Braves are favored to win this with a near 60-percent win probability. It lets you know just how much the simulator believes in Atlanta’s offense potentially putting up some runs on the board against the left-handed Griffin — and maybe Elder can keep Washington quiet again. It’ll be interesting to see what happens but as long as Atlanta continues to fire on all cylinders like they’ve (mostly) done since the All-Star break, I like their chances against any team. Let’s see what happens, folks.
With much of the baseball world focused on Tarik Skubal, another starting pitcher from the Detroit Tigers could be emerging as an appealing trade deadline option.
The Tigers scratched Casey Mize from his scheduled Friday start for non-injury reasons, a move widely viewed as a precautionary step before the MLB trade deadline on Monday, August 3. The former No. 1 overall pick is enjoying arguably the best season of his career, posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 16 starts. He could be a valuable mid-rotation starter for contenders seeking pitching help.
Mize will be a free agent at the end of the season and, unlike Skubal, would come at a far more reasonable cost, making him a realistic target for a much broader group of contenders.
Here are the five teams that make the most sense if the Tigers decide to move Casey Mize.
The Cubs have made it no secret that they are hungry and hunting for starting pitching. At 62-47 entering Friday, Chicago is in second place in the National League Central, 5½ games behind the Milwaukee Brewers, but firmly entrenched in the NL's top wild-card spot.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves remain in control of the NL East, but their starting pitching depth behind ace Chris Sale is shaky. With Spencer Schwellenbach recovering from elbow surgery and Spencer Strider still sidelined, Mize would provide some stability beyond Bryce Elder. And team president Alex Anthopoulos has never been shy to make a big deal.
Philadelphia Phillies
It's win-now mode in Philly, and the team is clinging to an NL wild-card position at the moment. In order to solidify their postseason position, they need more starting pitching help for Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez. Mize would be a perfect fit in the middle of the rotation alongside Jesus Luzardo.
The only American League club on the list wasn't even a buyer going into the All-Star break. But a franchise-tying win streak of 15 games got the Red Sox back on the map, and they enter Friday at 57-51 and in the second wild-card spot. The rotation was delt a big blow by losing Garrett Crochet early on and has experienced inconsistencies outside of Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez. Mize would fit nicely as Boston's No. 3 for the duration of the season and the playoffs.
San Diego Padres
Michael King has been the only arm keeping the Padres afloat, yet they remain just two games back of an NL wild-card spot. Mize would put less strain on King and offer rotation depth without the cost attached to some of the market's top starting pitchers.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 26: Will Warren #29 of the New York Yankees throws a pitch gainst the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on July 26, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Yankees 11-4. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Yankees’ offense better wake up, as they’ve scored just two unearned runs in their last 22 innings. Facing a Cubs team that ranks second in the majors with 5.17 runs scored per game and third with a 111 wRC+, they simply cannot afford to give so many ABs away, New York failing to dent home plate in 28 of their last 32 innings played. Fortunately, they’ll face a pitching staff that is seventh-worst with a 4.68 FIP, though it’s not like the White Sox were much better in that department and were still largely able to silence the Yankees in the final two games of their just-completed series.
Will Warren is coming off one of his worst starts of the season — six runs on six hits in three innings against the Phillies. It’s already the fifth start in which he has given up at least five runs, four of those coming since June 20th, Warren posting a 6.57 ERA over his last eight starts after opening the season at 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA across his first 12 starts. To me, the problems appear to be threefold: he can’t get lefties out, he struggles to pitch from the stretch, and he suffers a massive third-time-through penalty. That doesn’t bode well against a Cubs lineup that features five batters from the left side and is second in baseball with a .340 OBP. In 20 starts, Warren is 7-5 with a 4.41 ERA (102 ERA+), 4.16 FIP, and 102 strikeouts in 102 innings.
The Cubs declined their three-year team option on Shota Imanaga over the winter after he struggled in 2025, the two sides eventually reuniting on the qualifying offer for 2026. He has rewarded that renewed faith with a rebound performance, gaining a mph back on his fastball which has seen his chase and strikeout rates tick back up to his stellar rookie campaign marks in 2024. The 32-year-old lefty relies on hitters getting themselves out rather than overwhelming you with stuff, the four-seamer acting as a setup pitch for his splitter and sweeper. The Yankees are getting him at an awful time as Imanaga is coming off consecutive scoreless starts of at least six innings. In 21 starts, Imanaga is 7-8 with a 3.72 ERA (109 ERA+), 4.39 FIP, and 113 strikeouts in 121 innings.
The Yankees opt for their usual lineup against lefties, but with a pair of notable changes. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is not in the lineup after exiting yesterday’s loss in the 11th with cramps, which allows Spencer Jones a rare start against a lefty in right as José Caballero is forced to man second. Amed Rosario, Anthony Volpe, and Ali Sánchez will be tasked with carrying their weight with the supposed platoon advantage against the soft-tossing lefty.
The Cubs stack their lineup with lefties against Warren. Leading off is the MLB position player leader in fWAR (7.1) in Pete Crow-Armstrong, the All-World center fielder leading baseball with 21 Outs Above Average and sixth in wRC+ (152) as he makes a legitimate push to challenge Shohei Ohtani for the NL MVP. Seiya Suzuki, Pedro Ramírez, Michael Busch, Michael Conforto, and Ian Happ have all been better than league average at the plate, while between Happ, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, and Dansby Swanson, the Cubs boast one of the best defensive infields in the game.
Keep in mind that there is some iffy weather in the forecast for the North Side of Chicago, so we’ll have to wait and see if there’s a delay or worse. A doubleheader later in the weekend could be in play.
How to watch
Location: Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL
First pitch: 2:20 pm ET
TV broadcast: YES, Marquee Sports Network
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | 104.3 The Score, WPPN 106.7 / TUDN (CHC)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 29: Luke Weaver #30 of the New York Mets throws a pitch during the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves during game one of a doubleheader at Citi Field on July 29, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
According to Will Sammon, both the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates are among the teams inquiring about the availability of Mets’ reliever Luke Weaver. Weaver, who signed with the Mets last December, is under contract through the end of the 2027 season.
Weaver, who turns 33 next month, has been excellent for the Mets this season, putting up a 1.88 ERA with 44 strikeouts and 11 walks in 43 innings pitched. For 25 consecutive innings earlier this season, Weaver did not allow an earned run over 24 appearances. The right-hander has been used mostly as a setup man for Devin Williams, but it wouldn’t be shocking if a team acquired him to act as their closer. Weaver previously closed for the Yankees in parts of the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
If the Mets are serious about being competitive in 2027, it will likely take a serious return for them to part with Weaver, who is both effective and fairly affordable, being owed $12.5 million next year. However, reliever performance fluctuates so much year to year, and with Weaver on the wrong side of 30, it would make a lot of sense for the Mets to capitalize on his value while it is so high if the offer is good enough.
Michael Marino reports that the Mets are interested in Pirates’ prospects Murf Gray and Sammy Stafura. Gray is a Top 100 prospect according to MLB.com and Stafura, a Westchester native, is the Pirates’ ninth best prospect.
Let's kick it off by cashing a few home run plays. While you're at it, be sure to check out today's MLB player props and my favorite home run looks, headlined by James Wood.
One of my favorite hitters to back for a home run tonight is Washington Nationals big fella James Wood. The Nationals slugger enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, covering 93.8% of Bryce Elder's subpar pitch mix.
Wood has also been seeing the ball extremely well lately, posting a .542 SLG, .942 OPS, 50% hard hit rate, and 15% barrel rate across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
The Atlanta Braves starter has struggled against left-handed hitters all season, and those issues have only gotten worse recently.
Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, they own a .431 xBA, .833 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA while generating a 47.5% hard hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 72.5% elevation rate.
Wood has not left the yard over his last six elite-rated appearances, which feels like long enough for the big fella to snap that streak in a matchup this favorable.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BravesVision, Nationals.TV
Home run prediction: Rafael Devers (+388)
The number one rated hitter on Batters-Box today is San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers, who is making his 260th elite rated appearance over the last three seasons. Across the previous 259, he has gone yard 22.39% of the time.
This evening, Devers draws a matchup against San Diego Padres right-hander Germán Márquez. He covers just over 50% of Márquez's pitch mix, though that number is held down by Márquez's heavy reliance on the knuckle curve, a pitch he throws nearly 40% of the time.
Devers has seen that offering in just seven at-bats this season, creating a limited sample. Against the rest of Márquez's arsenal, however, the Giants slugger owns outstanding expected numbers.
Márquez has struggled all season against left-handed hitters. Across the last 60 he has faced, they have produced over a 55% hard hit rate, a 12% barrel rate, and a 66.7% elevation rate while posting a .323 xBA, .674 xSLG, and .396 xwOBA.
With the way Devers has been swinging the bat lately, and how much Márquez has struggled against lefties, this feels like an excellent spot for the big fella to leave the yard.
The Twins starter has struggled all season, especially on the road, where he owns a 7.58 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while allowing a 43.7% hard hit rate and 15.13% barrel rate.
Right-handed hitters have also given Matthews problems recently. Over the last 60 righties he has faced, they have generated over a 40% hard hit rate and nearly a 13% barrel rate while posting a .347 xBA, .609 xSLG, and .314 ISO.
Arozarena, meanwhile, has been on a tear against right-handed pitching. Across his last 30 plate appearances, he owns a .520 SLG, .920 OPS, and .240 ISO while producing a 61.1% hard hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
On top of that, the Mariners slugger earns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, where he also covers nearly 100% of Matthews' subpar pitch mix.
The way Arozarena is swinging the bat and how poorly Matthews has been playing feels like an excellent spot to back the Mariners at home tonight.
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Mariners.TV, Twins.TV
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 90-324, +7.8 units
Best home run combo for July 31
James Wood
Trade Now +8128
Rafael Devers
Randy Arozarena
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
BOSTON, MA - JULY 25: Pitcher Dylan Cease #84 of the Toronto Blue Jays gets a hug from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 after the final out of his complete game one hitter in their 6-0 win over the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on July 25, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
O, Canada. The St. Louis Cardinals have crossed the border in search of some badly-needed momentum and Toronto just might be a great place to find it as the Blue Jays are reeling. But, if you look at both teams on paper, the Cardinals will need to find their A-game to win the series against the Blue Jays.
Here are the scheduled pitching matchups according to MLB.com:
Friday night – Kyle Leahy vs Dylan Cease
Saturday afternoon – Quinn Matthews vs Kevin Gausman
Sunday afternoon – Michael McGreevy vs Max Scherzer
It’s no secret that Dylan Cease is an all-star with a 7-5 win-loss record and a 2.46 ERA. His last 7 games he’s 4-2 and his last outing was a complete game win against Boston on July 25. Kevin Gausman, on the other hand, is struggling. He’s 4-10 overall and 0-6 in his last half dozen starts. His ERA is a hefty 4.51 and his last start was a loss against the Red Sox where he pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 runs. The Max Scherzer of 2026 is not the Max Scherzer of past seasons. Max is 1-4 with a stratospheric 9.49 ERA. He’s 0-2 in his last 3 starts with his last outing being a start where he didn’t make it past the 3rd inning.
For the St. Louis Cardinals, the real excitement this weekend is the MLB debut of Quinn Matthews. His start Saturday afternoon will be must-see TV.
Who are the Toronto Blue Jays players to watch?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left Tuesday’s game versus the Washington Nationals with hamstring tightness. Even when in the lineup, he has not been the same player we’ve come to know over the years as he’s batting .265 with just 6 home runs and none in his home ballpark.
Kazuma Okamoto leads the Blue Jays with 24 home runs, 68 RBI’s and an average of .231.
George Springer has 12 home runs with just 34 RBI’s and a slug of .403.
Second baseman Ernie Clement is tops for the Blue Jays in batting average as he’s hitting .294 as of today. He also has 8 home runs and 35 RBI’s.
Centerfielder Daulton Varsho has 7 home runs, 26 RBI’s and a batting average of just .247.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in the cellar of the American League East 14.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays and 5.5 games back in the Wild Card with 5 other teams between them and the final WC spot. They’ve lost 6 of their last 10 games and their clubhouse is showing the strain of underperformance. Veteran pitcher Kevin Gausman noted on the Deep Left Field podcast that the team is “not nearly as close-knit” as they were last year. All-Star Ernie Clement pointed out that the team sorely misses the intangible leadership and personality traits of players that left like Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt.
This weekend’s series against the Blue Jays should be an opportunity for the St. Louis Cardinals to find some positive momentum, but the trade deadline looms. How many on the Cardinals roster will make the trip to New York once the Toronto series is done? We’ll find out soon enough.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - JULY 30: Ryan Kreidler #5 and Royce Lewis #23 douse Kody Clemens #2 of the Minnesota Twins with water after the game against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field on July 30, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Royals 4-3. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With that terrible road trip in the rearview mirror, the Mariners return to Seattle for the longest homestand of the season. At four games under .500, they’re a game away from matching their season’s nadir — they were five games under on April 17. That makes this series against the Twins all the more important. It’s very possible the direction of the ballclub ahead of Monday’s trade deadline will be determined by how the team performs in Friday’s and Saturday’s games. That the Twins are a direct rival in the Wild Card race makes this a critical series if the M’s still want to make any noise in the playoff race this summer.
The Twins are surprisingly in the mix in the AL playoff picture, a year after their dramatic tear down last summer. They’ve been playing so well, they’re expecting to be buyers ahead of the trade deadline on Monday. A dramatic walk-off win on Thursday — Kody Clemens hit a grand slam with two outs and two strikes to win the game — gave Minnesota a series win over the Royals and pushed their record back to .500. The team is now just three games back in the AL Central and a game behind the Guardians for the final spot in the AL Wild Card race.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Trevor Larnach
LF
L
323
17.3%
11.5%
0.160
133
Brooks Lee
3B
S
421
16.2%
7.4%
0.174
100
Ryan Jeffers
C
R
193
16.6%
14.0%
0.233
160
Josh Bell
DH
S
425
22.1%
7.8%
0.165
98
Kody Clemens
2B
L
382
22.5%
6.0%
0.249
116
Royce Lewis
1B
R
305
25.2%
10.2%
0.167
89
Alan Roden
RF
L
42
16.7%
9.5%
0.000
30
Luke Keaschall
CF
R
398
15.1%
10.1%
0.082
98
Ryan Kreidler
SS
R
182
20.3%
6.6%
0.172
97
A nagging hip injury has forced Byron Buxton to the IL for the second time this month, and his absence puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup to continue producing without the team’s superstar carrying the load. Ryan Jeffers recently returned from a hamate bone fracture and he’s now the team’s best hitter with a 160 wRC+. Both Trevor Larnach (133 wRC+) and Kody Clemens (116 wRC+) are in the midst of their best seasons at the plate. Former top prospect Royce Lewis has been mostly healthy this year, though he spent a month in Triple-A for a quick reset after getting off to a really rough start to the season; he’s posted a 114 wRC+ since returning from the minors.
Zebby Matthews has had an up-and-down introduction to the big leagues the past two years. During his debut season in 2024, he featured a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio but was undone by a ton of home runs allowed. Last year, he got his dinger problem under control, but his ERA shot up to 5.56 anyway, nearly two runs higher than his FIP. This season, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has gone backwards and he’s allowing a bunch of home runs again. That’s not what you want to see. His two breaking balls are still solid pitches, but he’s grooving far too many of his fastballs to really be successful.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Connor Prielipp
72.1
24.4%
8.3%
9.6%
42.0%
4.73
3.74
Logan Gilbert
125.2
26.8%
5.4%
10.3%
36.3%
3.44
3.31
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
31.3%
25.3%
95.5
85
71
80
0.392
Sinker
9.8%
17.5%
95.0
93
91
105
0.259
Changeup
16.3%
0.6%
86.4
96
61
77
0.355
Curveball
17.9%
16.0%
82.4
126
121
157
0.196
Slider
24.8%
40.7%
87.5
110
84
102
0.308
From a previous series preview:
Entering the season, Connor Prielipp was the Twins’ top ranked pitching prospect and their third overall prospect. A pair of serious elbow injuries — one in college in 2021 and one in the minors in ‘23 — have curtailed his development somewhat, but his raw stuff has continued to look dominant. His best pitch is a superb slider that features tight, downward movement and higher than average velocity. His fastball is fine — it’s the pitch he can command the best at the moment — and his changeup has flashed some promise, though he has trouble with his feel for that offspeed pitch.
Due to the aforementioned injuries, the Twins have been extremely careful with Prielipp this year. He spent a few weeks on the IL in July and they’ve been giving him extra rest days whenever they can afford it. His breaking balls have looked like excellent weapons in the majors, but his fastball has been knocked around a bit. In the second start of his career back in April, he held the Mariners to two runs in five innings, striking out five.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Taj Bradley
120.2
27.6%
9.7%
12.3%
35.3%
3.65
3.91
George Kirby
120
21.5%
5.0%
11.6%
45.7%
3.98
3.65
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
45.2%
47.7%
97.0
107
68
82
0.379
Cutter
34.0%
17.0%
89.7
112
162
101
0.221
Splitter
11.6%
26.2%
91.4
109
105
127
0.236
Curveball
9.2%
9.0%
82.2
112
112
131
0.262
From a previous series preview:
The Twins acquired Taj Bradley from the Rays last summer in a deal that has turned out to be somewhat of a coup. Back in 2023, Bradley was one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in baseball, but he struggled to harness his impressive raw stuff across his first three seasons in the big leagues. Tampa Bay cut bait on him, and he continued to struggle in Minnesota after the trade, but he’s managed to put everything together this season. The biggest difference for him has been small adjustments to his cutter and splitter to differentiate those pitches from his fastball. His cutter is breaking glove side a little more and his splitter is diving out of the zone more often. With an extremely high arm slot and an arsenal that heavily relies on vertical movement, those small changes have had a huge impact on his results on the mound.
Bradley has continued his breakout season, posting career-bests in ERA and FIP and he’s already matched his career-high in fWAR. Against the Mariners back in April, he allowed two runs in seven innings while striking out seven.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Rangers
55-54
0.505
—
-22
L-W-W-L-L
Astros
55-55
0.500
0.5
-41
W-L-W-W-W
Mariners
53-57
0.482
2.5
+3
W-L-W-L-L
Athletics
45-64
0.413
10.0
-129
L-L-W-L-L
Angels
42-67
0.385
13.0
-71
L-W-L-L-L
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Yankees
61-48
0.560
+5.5
+87
L-W-W-L-L
Red Sox
57-51
0.528
+2.0
+50
W-W-W-L-W
Guardians
56-54
0.509
—
-14
L-L-W-L-W
Twins
55-55
0.500
1.0
-29
W-W-W-L-W
Astros
55-55
0.500
1.0
-41
W-L-W-W-W
Orioles
53-56
0.486
2.5
-24
W-L-W-L-W
Mariners
53-57
0.482
3.0
+3
W-L-W-L-L
The thing that makes the Mariners’ struggles simultaneously more frustrating and more forgiving is that the Rangers aren’t exactly running away with the division. Texas lost its series to the Rays earlier this week, dropping the team to just a game over .500. Meanwhile, the Astros have won eight of their last nine games and have climbed back to .500, half a game back in the division. The two Texas teams face each other this weekend in Houston.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JULY 25: Jackson Holliday #7 of the Baltimore Orioles prepares for a pitch during a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 25, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
What’s the definition of “not going well?” How about playing a series against a team that came in on a 12-game losing streak, and getting swept? The series against the Marlins showed that it’s not just one thing plaguing the Phillies at the moment, it’s everything. Each loss came in a different fashion, with the one common thread being poor defense.
Next, the Phillies will travel to Baltimore to take on an Orioles team that theoretically should provide some opportunities for victories. However, considering how poorly the team has played since the All-Star Game, any future opponents could say the same thing.
Opposition research: Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday was a can’t miss prospect. The son of a former All-Star and first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday was rated as the top prospect in baseball prior to the 2024 season. When he was called up to the majors in April of that year, it was expected that the middle infielder would become an instant star.
For every Phillies fan who complains that the team is too slow to promote their young players, just remember that not every prospect, no matter how touted they are, is going to be succeed immediately upon reaching the majors. Holliday struggled so much that the team quickly demoted him. (For the fans who want to trade every prospect, this is some ammunition for your case.)
He returned to the majors at the end of July that year, and while he wasn’t awful, he certainly didn’t look anything like the star that was promised. 2025 was slightly better as he hit 17 home runs, but his defense was subpar and his OPS was only .690.
His 2026 season got off to a poor start when he suffered a fractured hamate bone in February that required surgery and delayed the start of his season to mid-May. He started slowly after returning and was batting .200 at the end of June. However, he’s had an excellent month of July so far.
Jackson “July” Holliday!
Cutting your strikeout rate nearly in half while boosting your wRC+ by 99 points in just 30 days is absurd.
At age 22, it’s far too early to write off Holliday’s chances of living up to the hype. He’s so talented that it seems like it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a consistently good player.
There have also been rumors that he’s on the trade block, but I don’t understand how that makes sense. The Orioles shouldn’t be buyers, and giving up on a top prospect at age 22 feels insane.
Hating on the Orioles
I attended one of the Orioles games in Philadelphia last year, and I taunted one of my friends who is an Orioles fan that their team was getting wrecked by Taijuan Walker and Max Kepler. (For some odd reason, Kepler did very well whenever I was in attendance. Obviously, I didn’t attend nearly enough games last year.) He said that was pretty much par for the course.
The Orioles hoped that after a playoff appearance in 2024, last year’s down season was just a temporary setback. But it seems like 2025 is far more representative of the state of the franchise since they are currently mired in fourth place and don’t appear to be headed back to the postseason.
The Orioles’ roster isn’t all that impressive with both the pitching staff and offense being mediocre at best. Two years ago, Gunnar Henderson looked like a real contender for the unofficial title of “best shortstop in baseball” but he’s got a sub-.300 on-base percentage this season. Adley Rutschman hasn’t built upon his promising first two seasons. Taylor Ward walks a lot, but he won’t come close to approaching the 36 home runs he hit last year. Their best hitter has been free agent import Pete Alonso, but he’s signed for four more years, and there’s little chance that contract doesn’t feel like an albatross by the end.
The Orioles as a franchise are a lot like the Cincinnati Reds in that they were a powerhouse in the 70’s and early 80’s and haven’t really done much of note since then. The closest thing they’ve had to relevance since then is when a young fan deflected a ball into the stands for a home run.
Today In 1996: 12-year-old Jeffrey Maier causes an uproar when he reaches over the wall and turns Derek Jeter's fly ball into a HR in Game 1 of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium! #MLB#Yankees#Orioles#Postseasonpic.twitter.com/DcPpdpO2h5
After sweeping the Tigers in the 2014 NLDS, they’ve lost ten straight playoff games. You’d think they could luck their way into at least one playoff win in 12 years, but apparently not.
Trivia
Last week’s answer: Granny Hamner batted .429 in the 1950 World Series. dirkniblick was correct.
This week’s question: In the 1983 World Series between the Phillies and Orioles, who was the only Phillie to hit more than one home run?
Additional thought about the series
I’ve been out of the country for a few days, and for whatever reason, the Phillies play awful baseball whenever I leave the United States. (I watched game six of the 2022 World Series in Cancun.) I return on Saturday night, so if you’re the type who likes to bet on the Phillies to win, Sunday might be your play.
As for the other games, considering the funk the Phillies are mired in, it’s tough to have much confidence. This core has gone through similar stretches in recent seasons, and eventually come out of it, so I don’t think this is a permanently broken team or anything. But until they do emerge, maybe everyone should do themselves a favor and take a vacation of their own.
MLB teams have wondered this season whether the Tigers, who are 51-58 and 4 1/2 games back of the last AL Wild-Card spot, would be open to dealing their ace.
That may be the case after all, as his teammate and fellow pitcher Casey Mize was scratched ahead of his scheduled start Friday against the A’s.
Casey Mize has been scratched from his scheduled start on Friday. AP
Mize is now listed as Tuesday’s starter — after the trade deadline — but Detroit’s latest move has signaled that he may not be there that long.
While a move for two-time Cy Young winner Skubal would of course be separate, The Post’s Jon Heyman believes the Mize trade is “the clearest sign yet” that Skubal will likely be moved in a potential fire sale.
Heyman also mentioned Gleyber Torres and Kyle Finnegan as possible trade candidates for Detroit.
While Skubal is certainly the Tigers’ best trade chip, Mize will also be seen as an attractive option for a team looking for pitching help at a lower cost.
The 29-year-old is having a career year, with a 2.70 ERA and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
The move could signal that Detroit is also open to dealing ace Tarik Skubal ahead of the trade deadline. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
The Yankees have been linked to Skubal, while there have also been suggestions that NL contenders like the Brewers, Braves or Phillies could make a move for him.
In fact, the two-time defending champion Dodgers — who already have the best record in baseball — could be motivated to trade for him just to keep him from a rival, Heyman reported.
It now seems a matter of when, rather than if, Skubal will be traded.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 29: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Oracle Park on July 29, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Brandon Vallance/Getty Images) | Getty Images
While Astros GM Dana Brown has publicly maintained that acquiring an outfield bat is his top priority, the buzz in inner circles for the last few weeks has been that the Astros are very focused on adding a starting pitcher.
While the price for a starter will undoubtedly be very high in a clear seller’s market, could the Astros swing big for a starter?
It appears they are at least trying.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Astros are among several teams that have called on San Francisco Giants SP Logan Webb:
The Houston Astros and other teams keep asking about San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb.
And they keep being told he’s not going anywhere.
Nightengale further went on to report on the Giants’ plans at the deadline and who they plan to keep and trade:
The Giants plan to keep outfielder Jung Hoo Lee and trade Heliot Ramos. They also are telling teams they are willing to eat part of starter Robbie Ray’s $25 million contract in a trade.
Ramos is a right-handed left fielder batting .267 with 9 HR and 34 RBI. He has a .306 OBP and .739 OPS. He will be entering his first year of arbitration at age 27.
Ray, a former Cy Young winner in 2021, is now 34. He is a free agent at the end of the season. He is 10-6 this season with a 3.08 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He has 107 K in 122.2 IP. He also leads the NL with 57 walks.
While Webb isn’t currently available, it does lend credence to the Astros looking to make a big move for a pitcher.
Eric Fedde
CJ Abrams
Hunter Goodman
Rafael Devers
Randy Arozarena 
