Happy Monday, everyone! The past few days have stoked the flames on the offseason hot stove into a fever pitch (no pun intended, I promise). With the Mets losing out on signing Kyle Tucker, and the Dodgers once again proving they’ll spend whatever it takes to become the next MLB dynasty, we’re seeing a lot of high-priced short-term deals making the rounds. The Mets pivoted, signing Bo Bichette, and it’s making folks wonder what this means for free agency deals and if we’re seeing the new normal in terms of shying away from the longer-term deals.
It remains to be seen, but there’s plenty more juicy tidbits in today’s news breakdown, so let’s just jump right into it.
We have signed the following international amateur free agents:
C Manuel Bolivar (Venezuela, pictured below) C Roman Silgado (Venezuela) IF Eduardo Tusen (Dominican Republic) SS Oscar Tineo (Venezuela) CF Douglas Olivo (Venezuela) OF Diego Orro (Venezuela) CF Randy Santana… pic.twitter.com/p9C8fqucZN
An interesting look at the financial side of running a baseball team.
The Atlanta Braves financial statements are publicly available and serve as a general guide for understanding the business of baseball. Any good accountant can move some decimals here and there, but these are a good starting ground.
With the luxury tax, the Dodgers will be paying $126 million a season for Tucker (assuming no deferrals). That's more than 11 teams' entire payrolls. This is absurd.https://t.co/uwe3cLpqXw
Inevitably with a series such as this one, you’ll find one or two less notorious names to properly fill a list. So in searching for a former Yankee born on January 19th, we ended up with Fernando Seguignol as the chosen player. If you remember his short period with the Yankees, cheers to you for a great memory considering he had all of one major-league hit in his entire semi-interrupted career in pinstripes. That’s still one more than 99.99 percent of us, though.
Fernando Alfredo Seguignol Born: January 19, 1975 (Bocas del Toro, Panama) Yankees Tenure: 2003 (also in minors 1993-94)
Three years after the Yankees signed the most famous Panamanian in baseball history, they came to terms with his countryman, Fernando Seguignol. At the time the 18-year-old inked his contract with New York in January 1993, only 37 MLB players had ever hailed from Panama; since then, that figure has expanded to 81, including current Yankees utilityman José Caballero. Seguignol’s father, a longtime Yankees fa, and was absolutely thrilled that his son might one day play for the Bronx Bombers.
Seguignol struggled heavily in his first taste of Rookie ball in ’93, but after putting up a reasonable .767 OPS in short-season ball for Oneonta the following campaign, he raised his stock. It was enough to invoke the interest of the desperate Montreal Expos, and Seguignol was used by the Yankees just before the start of the 1995 campaign to acquire standout closer John Wetteland in a one-for-one deal with cash considerations involved.
Make no mistake: For the Expos, this was not about getting fair prospect value. The consortium of Montreal executives that owned the club informed GM Kevin Malone that he essentially had to sell off some of the best players from the outstanding 1994 club that was MLB’s best when the strike hit. It ended on April 2, 1995, and as MLB hastily organized a short spring training and a reduced 144-game schedule, the Expos executed a fire sale. Wetteland was dealt to the Yankees, Ken Hill went to Cleveland, Marquis Grissom was sent out to Atlanta, and though not traded, the Expos simply refused to offer Larry Walker a contract in arbitration; he signed with the Rockies. Credit Yankees GM Gene Michael for taking advantage of the opportunity, but those were some strange circumstances.
The Yankees had no problem trading a low-minors name for Wetteland, and while he felt hurt at the time, it honestly worked out well for Seguignol too, as he had less of an uphill climb to playing time in Montreal. Standing at six-foot-five, Seguignol had the traditional build of a power-hitting first baseman, but through the early years of his development process as an outfielder in the Expos farm system, he failed to live up to those expectations. It wasn’t until 1998 that Seguignol found his footing in Double-A Harrisburg, slugging over .600 and prompting a rapid rise through the ranks, reaching Triple-A and subsequently the majors for a rather small but quite successful first cup of tea.
Called up in September as part of an Expos team that was going nowhere and wanted to get a look at what they had in young bat, Seguignol earned his first hit as a pinch-hitter on September 10th. A day later, the 23-year-old experienced what had to be one of his most thrilling moments in the bigs, going back-to-back with future Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, easily the star of that 65-97 club.
It’s relatively telling of both the expectations the Expos had regarding Seguignol and, primarily, the lack of talent around Vlad Sr. that Montreal had their inexperienced first baseman batting fifth, right behind Guerrero, the team’s top hitter.
Despite good numbers in a short sample in 1998, Seguignol started the next year in the minors again, with Brad Fulmer as the Expos’ starting first baseman. Looking back at it, it’s difficult to justify why opportunities were so limited for Seguignol between 1999 and 2000, with him spending more time in the minors than majors, despite a decent .828 OPS in 294 PA between these two seasons and two of his 17 career homers against a prestigious name in Tom Glavine. If you want to be a bit harsher, that OPS isn’t nearly as good as it looks, considering the era (105 OPS+), and with many of those PA coming in left field instead of first base, his original position, the defensive value was virtually nonexistent. The strikeout issues were a problem, which didn’t come as much of a surprise, but the lack of pitch selection, which made for well-below-league-average walk rates, further diminished Seguignol’s floor as a big-league hitter.
Too good for Triple-A but unable to lock down a role in the big leagues, Seguignol was in that dreaded Quad-A state, and at the end of 2001, after receiving only 54 PA in the big leagues, he decided to give Japan a try. Seguignol’s strikeout woes made the trip with him however, and the power output wasn’t enough for the Orix BlueWave to justify giving him a full-time role.
Going back to where it first started, Seguignol signed with the Yankees after a short stint in Japan. Although his time with the big league club was short-lived and not particularly memorable, Seguignol’s campaign with the Yankees’ Triple-A team in Columbus was a great one.
As a 28-year-old, the Panamanian had an OPS above 1.000 and nearly won the Triple-A Triple Crown that year by hitting .341/.401/.624 with 28 homers in 106 games. Called up in September, Seguignol went 1-for-7 in the majors with no extra-base hits; his lone career big-league knock in pinstripes came in a post-clinch start on a ground-ball single against the Orioles’ Rodrigo Lopez.
Carrying over the success he had with the Yankees in Triple-A back in 2003, Seguignol returned to Japan, this time signing with the Nippon Ham Fighters. There, he immediately became one of the more dangerous bats in the NPB, hitting 44 home runs in his first season back in Japan — a new record for a switch-hitter. Although he could never quite replicate those numbers, Seguignol remained an important player for the Ham Fighters during four full seasons. Afterwards, he bounced around in Mexico, the minors, signing deals with the Rockies and Tigers without returning to the bigs, and also in the NPB again.
Returning from Japan in 2010 with the Indy ball Newark Bears, Seguignol would play his final season in 2011, featuring as one of the premier names for another Atlantic League club, the Lancaster Barnstormers. That wrapped up a near-20-year professional career. A switch-hitter who learned that trait when he was already in the minors, Seguignol couldn’t build the MLB résumé that he might’ve envisioned in the bigs. However, in Japan, he made history as one of the more fearsome switch-hitters in the history of the NPB, recording 172 homers in 767 games.
Following his playing career, Seguignol stayed involved in the baseball world. He worked for the Yomiuri Giants and the Cubs before landing a job with the Marlins as director of international operations. Hired by old teammate Derek Jeter in 2017 when the former Yankees captain got involved in Miami, Seguignol held the position until being let go in 2021. Wherever he is now, here’s hoping he has a nice 51st birthday ahead of him.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
To state the obvious: the mood in the Phillies fandom has not been overly sanguine in the past few days. The Phillies missed a chance to get better with Bo Bichette, while their rivals in Queens did not. There are still plenty of reasons to believe in the Phillies as a major contender for next year, despite that. The power is still there in the lineup. The rotation has healthy stars in Christopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as major weapons should they recover and return to form, respectively. The bullpen may be better than last year.
But the division won’t be easy. The Mets have major questions, especially in the rotation, but Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette make for a powerful combo. The Braves haven’t quite looked like themselves for the past season or two, but they’re still a major threat. The Nationals and Marlins still seem to be a few seasons away, but they have good young talent. Does all this leave the Phillies as the favorites to win the division? Or does a disappointing offseason and an extra year of age on the lineup move someone else into the drivers seat?
Today’s question is: Do you think the Phillies are still favorites to win the National League East?
[MLB] From World Series winner to sausage meister: A visit to Byung-hyun Kim’s German restaurant – “When I was playing in the States, any time families and friends would come, I would take them out to a restaurant that I recommended. I saw the joy that people felt from having good food,” Kim said. “That’s where it all started.” He began with three sushi restaurants in San Diego – today there is only one, Umi Sushi – before he followed his teenage dream and opened a handful of burger and hot dog joints, with two of the locations inside KBO stadiums at the Gocheok Sky Dome and Changwon NC Park. “The inspiration was Gonzo’s Grill in Arizona at Chase Field,” Kim said. “I saw that and I really wanted to replicate it and have a burger joint at a baseball stadium.”
[AZ Big Media] Merrill Kelly returns to the Diamondbacks for his family – His family’s thrilled to be back in the Valley. Korean cuisine has become an occasional stop, indulged in “probably a little more than we should,” Kelly joked. “We don’t venture out much unless we have to,” he said at first. “I’m a big golfer. If I do go somewhere, at least on my own, it’s usually the golf course. “We found a couple spots that we really like. There’s a place in Mesa, Jin BBQ, [near Mekong Plaza] that we like. There’s an H Mart, which is a big Korean grocery store. It’s good to be back.”
[Dbacks.com] Marte plan unchanged in face of Bregman, Suárez signings – If you’re holding your breath on them bringing in a bona fide closer at this point, well … don’t. “Would I like to have somebody that has a clear pedigree of pitching in the eighth and ninth inning?” Hazen said. “That’s an easier answer. I’m not sure what we’ll have access to in that way. I think if we continue to build out talent in the bullpen, this bullpen is going to be good in time as we move through the season. We’re going to obviously be getting guys back as we move through the season, so I think the talent is naturally going to improve as we move through the year.”
[New Baseball Media] 2025 MLB Farm Review: Arizona Diamondbacks – There is a new #1 atop the Diamondbacks’ farm system. It’s close between Waldschmidt and Caldwell, two different outfielders. Both are fantastic at getting on base and swiping bases, Caldwell more than the former. However, Waldschmidt is a formidable power hitter, moreso than Caldwell. After that, we’ll go with Cunningham at #3. Kohl Drake, acquired last summer as part of the Merrill Kelly, was a strong swing-and-miss pitcher in the Rangers’ organization. has a diverse & modern pitch arsenal, regularly using both a four-seamer and two-seamer.
And, elsewhere…
[Just Baseball] Top 20 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions – Zac Gallen – Two-year, $54 million deal, opt-out after 2026, Orioles, we now have Gallen signing with a team that has been very aggressive this offseason. My initial contract prediction has aged well, as the market has stalled on Gallen and he could be forced to take a two-year deal with an opt-out. Paul Goldschmidt – One-year, $5 million, D-backs. Goldschmidt is looking like a great fit in Arizona. With the left-handed hitting Pavin Smith set to start at first base, Goldy could form a platoon there, or could even push Smith to DH some if they wanted him to play every day. If this is the last season of Goldschmidt’s career, there would not be a better place for him.
[MLB Trade Rumors] Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds – While details were sparse at the time, president of baseball operations Nick Krall revealed today the team made an official offer that would have topped their 10-year, $225MM franchise-record deal with Joey Votto. “We made Elly an offer that would’ve made him the highest-paid Red ever,” Krall said (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). “That’s not where he is and you respect that. It’s their career. You keep going and you keep working on what you can do today.” De La Cruz opted not to go into specifics, telling fans at Redsfest only that he leaves contractual matters to his agent, Scott Boras.
[NY Post] Jazz Chisholm Jr. joining Great Britain for 2026 World Baseball Classic – Jazz Chisholm Jr. has committed to suit up for Great Britain, as WBC reporter Shawn Spradling reported Friday, giving the Yankees [and former D-back!] second baseman a chance to play on the big stage this spring. Great Britain delegation head Gary Anderson and manager Brady Marcelino said last month at the Winter Meetings that there was strong interest in having Chisholm — who is entering his walk year — on the team; it was just a matter of working through eligibility and insurance, which has evidently been approved. The Bahamas native played for Great Britain in the WBC qualifiers as an 18-year-old in 2016.
The Rip (2026)
Dir: Joe Carnahan Star: Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Stephen Yuen, Scott Adkins
a.k.a. Cops Yelling: The Movie. Or perhaps it just seems that way, because nobody here seems to use their inside voice. However, it’s still decently entertaining, in a “Saturday night and I just want something mindless” way… It’s nice to see Damon and Affleck working together again: they’re the Peter Cushing and Christopher Lee of contemporary urban thrillers. Carnahan, too, has certainly come a long way since Blood Guts Bullets & Octane. Probably inevitably, the Netflix sausage machine has knocked off the rough edges of personality, in favor of smooth, slick and ultimately forgettable product. Though, as ever, the “based on real events” tag is more marketing than reality.
There are many reasons for the Orioles failure in 2025. Injuries piled up. The rotation was too thin. And a little bad luck certainly contributed. But perhaps the most disappointing part of the entire squad was the offense, a largely homegrown unit that was supposed to be the backbone of the team’s championship window. Instead, it collapsed.
Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias did quite a bit of work to improve the lineup this offseason. Most notably, he signed first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract with the expectation that he will hit 35+home runs in the middle of the order for years to come. Prior to that, he traded for Taylor Ward, a pending free agent that has hit 61 home runs over the last two seasons.
In short order, Elias injected power back into an Orioles lineup that sorely needed it. They had dropped from third in MLB in slugging (.435) in 2024 down to 19th (.394) in 2025. Some of that was due to the loss of Anthony Santander to free agency, and the rest was caused by underperformance from just about everyone else that stuck around. Bringing in external talent will help to a point, but the ceiling of this team will depend on what the players that were already in-house can do to bounce back. Two players, in particular, stand out.
Hip hip Holliday
The rare Oriole that actually improved in 2025 was Jackson Holliday. The former top prospect had a rough go in his rookie season of 2024, getting an early-season call-up, only to struggle mightily, go back to Triple-A Norfolk, and then return with some inconsistent performances through season’s end. He ended that year with a paltry .189/.255/.311 slash line.
In 2025, the Orioles cleared the deck for Holliday so that he could be their clear everyday second baseman. The results were…better. Over 149 games, he hit .242/.314/.375 with 17 home runs and a 95 OPS+. All in, that is a slightly below league-average hitter, but that OPS+ was a 32-point improvement from his rookie campaign. There was plenty to be encouraged by. He showed solid control of the strike zone, never looked out of his depth the way he often did in ‘24, and stayed at the big league level all season long.
There is no indication that the Orioles are wavering on Holliday’s potential. With spring training around the corner, he remains the only everyday option at second base on the roster. And while the team has continued to pursue high-end pitching through the winter, Holliday’s name has not been mentioned in any public trade rumors. He is poised to play a ton of baseball in Baltimore once again in 2026.
It has become commonplace for this era of Orioles prospects to scuffle right at the start of their big league careers, only to figure things out a bit more in years two and three. Holliday is in a good position to have the same experience.
Westburg, straight ahead
Elsewhere on the infield is a player that has had no such issue with big league pitching. In fact, he’s already made an all-star team and owns a career 116 OPS+. He’s not bad with the leather either. A Gold Glove isn’t out of the question before his career ends. That is, if he could only stay healthy.
Jordan Westburg missed time on three different occasions in 2025. He was out from late April through early June with a hamstring strain, lost a few games in June and July with a finger injury, and then sprained his ankle in mid-August, keeping him on the shelf until mid-September. All of those injuries limited him to just 85 total games.
Despite that, Westburg tied for the team lead in home runs (17) hit last year, alongside Holliday and Gunnar Henderson, who each played in 149 or more games. It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that the team’s worst month of the year (May), was the one that Westburg missed completely.
It’s unlikely that Westburg was ever truly healthy in 2025. Even still, he was productive, posting a solid .265/.313/.457 slash line with a 114 OPS+, and the aforementioned 17 home runs. Defensively, he graded out well, accumulating 3 outs above average, according to Baseball Savant.
On top of that, he maintained his 29 feet per second sprint speed (89th percentile in MLB), which is well above the league average (27 ft/sec), and among the very best at third base. In fact, no other third baseman had a faster time from home plate to first base (4.23 seconds) than Westburg, which is extremely impressive for a right-handed hitter.
All of the tools are there for Westburg to be the type of player that makes all-star teams on a yearly basis and might even get down-ballot MVP consideration some seasons. But he has to stay on the field for any of that to happen.
Table setters
Holliday and Westburg are not the only two hitters on the Orioles roster that need to improve going into 2026 if the team’s hopes of returning to the postseason are going to come true. But they are the two on the roster for which that jump in performance feels the most attainable.
Holliday has already shown he can develop at the major league level. Year two was a humble one in terms of production, but the growth was clear. Now he has a base from which he can build. FanGraphs calculated that he was worth 1.2 WAR in 2024. Many of their projection systems believe he could double that value in 2026, ranging from 2.3 to 3.1 WAR. A performance like that would have him in the all-star conversation, and maybe even some position-specific awards come October. An even bigger jump than that is also possible. After all, he was the absolute top prospect in baseball not so long ago. But let’s see pump the brakes a bit.
Westburg should have no doubt about his ability to be one of the best third basemen in the game. He has already done it, albeit for brief moments. Now it’s about staying off the IL, which can be a skill of sorts that players develop as they get more experience in the game. You can’t eliminate injury risk, but you may be able to mitigate it with adjustments to playing style. Whatever can be done, should be done. The Orioles are a much better team with Westburg in the lineup. If he plays in 130+ games, he is nearly a lock to be a 3.5+ WAR player, and maybe even better.
Lineups obviously aren’t set in stone, but right now the Roster Resource tool at FanGraphs projects the Orioles everyday offense to include Holliday as the leadoff man, a role he handled many times in 2025, and Westburg in the second spot. Right behind them is Henderson at three, with Alonso in the clean-up role. Maybe you like Westburg better in the leadoff spot with Holliday farther down the order, but at the very least that projection illustrates the pair’s expected importance to the team.
In theory, that sounds like a fearsome quartet to face right out of the gate. But it gets far less scary if Holliday can’t continue to grow and Westburg is on the IL more than the infield. The outcome of the 2026 Orioles is not entirely on the duo’s shoulders, but they will need to bare quite a bit of weight.
Back when I was updating IWAG in earnest, one of the flags or parameters that I put in was essentially a confidence rating — not just of the point estimate, but the distribution. Not surprisingly, my work and research indicated that it is a lot easier to forecast the upcoming season of a player with at least a handful of MLB seasons under their belts. Younger players, or more accurately, less experienced players, posed a relative challenge. Trying to forecast a to-debut rookie was a nightmare, but second-year players weren’t much better. (I remember a study a while ago by either Tom Tango or Mitchel Lichtman, or maybe both of them, that indicated that assuming league average for a given to-debut rookie ended up less wrong than trying to use their minor league stats and other parameters to actually forecast their performance.)
Unfortunately for me, and for you, if you care about forecasting, Drake Baldwin is a second-year player. His rookie year was great, one of the few things that actually worked in the Braves’ favor in 2025, and now there’s a question of whether he’ll maintain that hardware-and-Prospect Promotion Incentive-winning performance, improve upon it, or backslide for whatever reason.
Career-to-date, status, and recent performance
Baldwin was drafted in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft, spent the bulk of his first full professional season in High-A, and moved up to Triple-A on a full-time basis midway through 2024, after fewer than 300 PAs in Double-A. The Braves have, historically, promoted guys they expected to be key performers without needing them to pay their dues or pad their stats in Triple-A, but Baldwin wasn’t earmarked for a big league role until Sean Murphy got hurt in Spring Training 2025. Given that Baldwin spent much of 2024 destroying Triple-A pitching, their hand was basically forced — which, as you can tell from how 2025 played out, is not always a bad thing.
Baldwin finished 2025 with 3.1 fWAR in 446 PAs, a pretty sexy WAR-per-600-PAs rate of about 4.2. Catchers can achieve high WAR/600 rates by virtue of the positional adjustment for donning the tools of ignorance (about 1.3 WAR/600 alone) and playing decent defense, but Baldwin DHed a fair bit and was below-average defensively, such that his offense was about three times as valuable as his defense in terms of performance above average.
That offense was revelatory, in part because Baldwin, with seemingly little effort, resembled a paragon of what the 2025 Braves were hoping to sculpt of their hitters: he walked at an average rate, struck out way less than average, and made a ton of contact while maintaining above-average oomph on said contact. While many Braves hitters had long swings that they whipped through the zone, basically leveraging delta-vee to their benefit when connecting, Baldwin kept the bat speed aspect but relied on a shorter swing that seemed to have few ill effects on his power production while allowing him to mitigate swing-and-miss. He obliterated four-seamers (.419 xwOBA) and had no issues with sliders (.365) — in a somewhat-crazy development, he managed a .370 xwOBA against sliders when lacking the platoon advantage. His issue was changeups, but which is not surprising given that he’s a lefty-batting rookie.
He was also pretty consistent, or at least, consistently valuable. His worst monthly xwOBA was .321, when he wore down a bit in September. He had one really great month, with a near-.400 xwOBA in May, but had three others where he was solidly at .350 or above. Defensively, it was more of a mixed bag: he has great mechanics in terms of positioning himself to block and throw, but lacked zip on his throws. In terms of framing, he really struggled to be convincing when he had to reach for the ball — either above the zone or, more critically, across his body. It’s the sort of thing that can probably be fixed mechanically, though I’m not exactly sure whether the Braves are equipped to do that well given the whole William Contreras thing.
Forecasting
So, how do you take this and shove it into 2026? It’s tempting to just say the status quo will prevail — it gives Baldwin the credit for his offensive performance, prevents assuming any uptick defensively, and precludes any headache that one could get from trying to figure out how much Baldwin will or not will be DHing by simply setting it equal to the same rate of catcher-versus-DH breakdown in 2025. Adjustments after using 2025 as a starting point might be easy to eyeball… or not.
For a projection system, well, I think things go back to my first paragraph here: how much do you regress to the mean given how good Baldwin was in 2025? Something is probably warranted, and there’s a big issue that is hard to implement effectively regarding the huge swing in positional adjustment between catcher and DH, which are the two positions that Baldwin will likely play heavily in 2026. IWAG’s best attempt is below, and it’s not really that heartening…
As you can see, IWAG applied some regression to the mean offensively. But, a similarly chunky hit came from something akin to a 2-to-1 split between catcher and DH — which is really different from 2025. Last year, Baldwin only had 52 PAs as a DH, less than one-in-eight if you ignore his pinch-hitting appearances. This year, unless Sean Murphy ends up being a non-entity, 2ish-to-1ish is punishing for Baldwin on a value basis, but it’s hard to assume he’ll hit 500-plus PAs without a breakdown like that.
As far as distributions go, this is a fun one, which is another way of saying, “yeah, IWAG has no idea.” There just isn’t too much to go off of that would cabin the range, and the catcher-versus-DH thing causes a lot of issues that requires pontificating on Sean Murphy’s health and whether any other player gets ensconced at DH, neither of which IWAG is actually capable of doing in a projection for Drake Baldwin.
Your turn
Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:
Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Drake Baldwin produce in 2026?
How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
Guys, seriously, stop picking numbers that aren’t a whole WAR, though if you do, it’s not like you’ll remember my forced adjustment to it when I score these next autumn anyway.
Wilbur Wood, a man who once threw 376 innings in a season and will undoubtably be the last man in the history of baseball to both win and lose 20 games in the same season, died at 84.
Even though the calendar says 2026, Sunday unfortunately felt a lot like 2025 for the Braves. Ha-Seong Kim, whom the Braves resigned this offseason, will now miss a good portion of the 2026 season with a torn finger tendon. It was a freak injury that occurred when Kim slipped on a piece of ice in his native Korea.
As a result, it will be interesting to see how the Braves respond to the injury in terms of adding infield depth to the roster. With Mauricio Dubon likely playing short as the starter, the Braves could look at different options to add SS depth to the organization.
It appears that the next big domino to fall on the FA market is Cody Bellinger. The Yankees currently have a modified offer out to Bellinger, including opt-outs. However, it has been reported in recent days they feel he could sign elsewhere.
Upgrading from a league-average bat in the third OF spot to one of the league’s best hitters would be a big gain in any context, but his impact on the Dodgers is boosted further by their already loaded lineup. Tucker provides the pop to drive in LA’s elite OBP guys, while his own OBP presence creates more RBI potential for the still fantastic bottom of the Dodgers’ order.
At Big West Dugout, a writer under the pseudonym Eephus Tosser looked at a few recent transactions — Tucker to the Dodgers, Gavin Lux traded by the Reds included — through an economist’s lens. He alluded to how the Dodgers invested early in building a player development system, which coupled with their vast resources is helping them thrive now.
“They didn’t draft Tucker. They didn’t tank for him. They didn’t reorganize their system to accommodate him. They simply absorbed him—financially and structurally—without changing how they operate,” he wrote. “That’s abundance after discipline. Resource importation without institutional erosion.”
The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.
Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.
Though the Royals’ outfield production might remain below average, their infield of Vinnie Pasquantino, Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia should again be one of the most productive in baseball, particularly if India bounces back.
While the work General Manager JJ Picollo has done to upgrade his outfield has been more inspiring this offseason than last, it still feels as if the additions are falling a bit short of expectations, especially on a team with a better than average starting rotation and one of the elite superstars in the game on the roster in Bobby Witt Jr. People may not like to talk about windows of competitiveness, but when Witt is anchoring your ballclub and you’ve assembled a quality pitching staff on the back of fantastic coaching, that window is open and needs to be taken advantage of.
Last year, I gave Picollo the benefit of the doubt when given the explanation as to why the Royals weren’t able to find suitable outfield upgrades. The free agent class wasn’t the greatest and if there aren’t willing trade partners, then there’s not much he can do.
But to strike out two years in a row, if that is indeed what happens, isn’t a good look.
In May 2025, India was spiked on his knee by Willson Contreras. A month later, he suffered a shoulder injury making a diving play. Finally, in September, India landed on the injured list with a wrist injury. That shoulder injury is where we should focus the most, as it seemed to have a clear impact the remainder of India’s season. Take the below splits into account:
India was a completely different hitter after the shoulder injury. He didn’t miss any real time or land on the injured list, but it begs the question: was India hampered by the shoulder injury for much of 2025? The Royals are banking on a bounceback from India in 2026 and they’ll need it to find any value at second base. Perhaps playing fewer positions and getting back to the basics will help.
Last Thursday, at the same time news was breaking that the Colorado Rockies had arrived at a deal with Willi Castro, Paul DePodesta and Michael Lorenzen addressed media in two separate Zoom availabilities.
Last week, Evan Lang provided an overview of Lorenzen’s career and a glimpse of what the signing might mean, and Sam Bradfield covered some of the highlights of his interview. At this point, it’s worth taking a moment to consider the things that weren’t said — but are significant — in both pressers.
The Rockies pitching staff is recruiting
Lorenzen was clear that the Rockies new staff played a significant role in his decision to sign with Colorado — “I’ve known a lot of them for a really long time,“ Lorenzen said. His explanation of those relationships are worth quoting at length:
I’ve known Alon (Leichman) since I was, shoot, since 2017, I want to say — before he was in pro ball. So I’ve known him for a really long time, and me and him have kind of kept in touch throughout the years. And so when he told me he was interviewing for the job, I was stoked for him, and he mentioned that he was going to try and bring me in if he ended up getting the job, which is pretty cool that we’re able to work together.
And then Matt Daniels, I worked with, he’s the new pitching coordinator. I worked with him when he was at Driveline — the first time I went to DriveLine back in like, 2017, so I’ve known him for a really long time as well.
And then, I’ve known Gabe (Ribas) for a really long with the Tigers. Me and him are really close in spring training, so he cares. He’s really smart, good leader. So that’s the background when it comes to the pitching side.
And then I had (Jeff) Pickler on the coaching staff in Cincinnati. He’s the bench coach now, obviously. And so he likes to think outside the box, and, I like to say, he doesn’t play scared, which is nice.
And then Brett Pill went to Cal State Fullerton. So, it just seemed like, man, I know, everyone. It’s just great. It was a perfect fit.
What Lorenzen is saying, then, is that he decided to sign with Colorado in large part due to relationships he’s built over the years with the Rockies’ new coaching staff. For years, the Rockies were notoriously insular and unwilling to take risks. That Lorenzen chose to sign with them shows the benefits of bringing in new personnel and new ideas.
He’ll bring the pitching approach of the Kansas City Royals
In 2024 when the Kansas City Royals were in Denver, I interviewed a number of their pitching staff (see here and here). What emerged as less interesting than the interviews themselves, however, was the attitude of the starting rotation as a whole. With Michael Wacha taking a lead role, the Royals rotation developed a “workshop” mentality. They would watch each others bullpens and debrief together when the starter came out of the game. Lorenen spent the last two years working in that environment.
We mesh very well. Everybody has a different way of pitching and a different way of thinking about pitching, but we all pick each other’s brains about things, talk to each other when we come out of the game, and we talk about what we see, even if it’s lefty or righty. We talk about what we saw and the little things to kind of help out the next guy that’s going the next day or two days or three days from then.
The Royals created a safe environment for taking risks and devalued ego: The emphasis was on collective success.
Here’s how Lorenzen described bringing those values to Coors Field:
I definitely love the process of Kansas City. And the reason behind that is just there was no ego. It was, “We just want to win, and we want what works best and what allows us to perform at the best of our ability.”
Sometimes ego can get in the way a little bit, in a sense, to where it’s like, “Hey, you’re not doing what I’ve asked you to do. And it’s even though it may not be the right thing, it’s what I what I asked you to do. So just do it.” You know, one of those situations, which I’m not saying any team that I’ve been on has done that, but it can get there.
And with Kansas City, there was just absolutely no egos, like, “Hey, we don’t care what you do. Go ahead and try it. We like it. If it works, then go for it.”
And I think this staff is definitely going to be that way, for sure. And I think just doing that alone, we should see some improvement in guys taking ownership of their careers and being more in tune with, like I said before, problem solving, trying to figure out how do we problem solve? How do we put certain pieces together? Because that’s what it takes to perform at the big leagues, and that’s what it takes to stay at the big leagues, is you got to be able to problem solve. You have to be able to adapt. And so, this staff is definitely going to be a staff that that is adaptable, and we’re going to be able to adapt to adversity.
Given that part of what Lorenzen will be doing in the coming season is mentoring young pitchers, having a leader with this approach should prove valuable for the Rockies.
Here’s the thing about pitchers — and you probably already know this, but I just want to reiterate the point. Good pitchers are nerds. Complete and total nerds. In the best possible way.
The first thing Lorenzen said when asked about why he signed with Colorado was loving a challenge:
One of the things is just, I feel like it’s untapped. And I don’t think you could say that about anywhere else in Major League Baseball, that you get to go to a place that’s just, it feels like it’s untapped. It feels like there’s a lot of new information to be learned. And that’s kind of right up my alley.
I think if as you get to know me throughout the year, you’ll see that I enjoy problem solving. Failure is going to happen. Trials are going to happen. You’re going to get your teeth kicked in, but it’s the problem solving and how to make the adjustment. That’s something that I really enjoy.
And Colorado, I feel like, presents that opportunity. And so with that being said, the staff, too, that they’ve hired, it just seems like I’ve known a lot of them for a really long time, and it just seemed like the perfect fit to where we are all going to be on the same page of “How do we solve this problem?” You could take it from the perspective of look at the word “problem” in a negative way, or you can look at the word “problem” from the perspective of opportunity. That’s always intrigued me about Colorado.
There’s a lot to unpack. Lorenzen wants the challenge, and feels like he’s found a staff that he can collaborate with.
The familiarity’s there, and what’s nice, too, is they’re all pretty young, so I don’t feel like they’re too far off from my age.
So, it’ll be really nice in a sense of I’m already talked to Alon, and there’s going to be some back and forth between me and him, which I think is really good. Through the debates, and like, “No, I think this is how we do it.” He’s like, “No, I think you’re dumb, and I think we should do it this way.” And it’s like, “Well, that doesn’t make sense to me.”
I think we’ll be able to have honest conversations like that. When you can have honest conversations like that, that’s how you really grow, and that’s how you really solve problems.
That right there, Reader, is the good stuff: an approach cracking the Rubik’s cube of Coors Field using science, trust, and collaboration.
Lorenzen revealed during the presser that he’s created a variation on his changeup over the offseason. One of the benefits of signing Lorenzen is his eight-pitch mix. Leichman and his staff will have a skilled veteran pitcher to test any range of pitches to see how they work.
Think of him as a kind of pitching lab rat — and I write that as the highest compliment.
Also worth noting, he’s planning to come to Coors Field soon to throw a bullpen and see how his stuff plays at elevation. These are all signs of a pitcher embracing a challenge.
No one knows that the 2026 Colorado Rockies will look like. But we do know they’ll look different, and we’re going to see a new kind of baseball at Coors Field.
Bring it on.
Reminder: Rockies Fest is this weekend
Here’s a list of attendees and schedule:
Todd Helton and Larry Walker will be there… will you?
This Thomas Harding article is well worth your time. In addition to describing Michael Lorenzen’s relationship to the Rockies pitching staff, Harding also delves into the pitcher’s training with Ido Portal. It’s interesting stuff.
Happy Monday, friends. It’s been a hectic weekend around the old offseason hot stove. The Mets, who tried their hand at signing Kyle Tucker, needed to rebound quickly after he signed his spendy contract with the Dodgers, so they turned their buying power towards free agent Bo Bichette. We also learned that Elly De La Cruz may have turned down the biggest contract in Reds history.
All this, plus a debate on who the true ace of our recent generation was, and we learn exactly when Mookie Betts will retire in today’s news links.
An interesting look into the finances of running a baseball team.
The Atlanta Braves financial statements are publicly available and serve as a general guide for understanding the business of baseball. Any good accountant can move some decimals here and there, but these are a good starting ground.
I’m sorry but this is genuinely nuts on so many levels.
With the luxury tax, the Dodgers will be paying $126 million a season for Tucker (assuming no deferrals). That's more than 11 teams' entire payrolls. This is absurd.https://t.co/uwe3cLpqXw
So far the voting on the top prospect list has produced zero surprises. JJ Wetherholt, arguably the most MLB ready prospect in the Cardinals system, was the #1 prospect. It’s certainly more of a debate about who is the second most MLB ready player, but Liam Doyle combines readiness with potential unmatched by anyone else in the system at the very least. I find it difficult to disagree with the choices made thus far.
As far as who to add to the voting, I think there’s one player I have to absolutely add to the voting given his change from last year to this year. When you have that big of a shift, I don’t know where the current opinion of the fanbase stands with that prospect. That certainly applies to Joshua Baez, who has been on a top 20 list before, but it was back in 2023 when he ranked 11th. A lot has changed since that moment, including two years where he was not voted onto the list at all. So he has to be added to the voting sooner rather than later.
There are a couple options on who to add next, but for better or worse, this is where I use a past list as a reference point. Last year, Tink Hence was voted as the #3 prospect in the system. I think it’s pretty clear he won’t be the 3rd prospect again, however I do feel an obligation to add him, especially because Fangraphs still believes him to be a top 100 prospect. So he’s a pretty easy add honestly, because he does feel like he should be among the first nine prospects added to the voting.
(I had originally planned to do Winter Warmup related posts, but my schedule has made that somewhat impractical honestly. I had interviews lined up all Saturday and then had maybe an hour break and went to my other job that night, which lasted until midnight. Back for interviews at 9 am on Sunday, I went straight from there to my parents for a Sunday night dinner. Didn’t really have any time to transcribe interviews. Not sure when I’ll return to Winter Warmup content, but for now, I’ll stick with the prospects)
Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 45/60 Game Power, 60/70 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 40/50 Fielding
As far as I can tell, the Fangraphs scouting report on Baez is updated as of July 1st of last year, which is to indicate that it does take into account his improvement, but they might have better reports since he continued playing well in the 2nd half. It’s a marvel that his BB%, K% and ISO all improved upon a promotion to a theoretically harder level. Obviously, the BABIP didn’t follow him, but he won’t exactly have a .400 BABIP in the majors either.
The question with Baez is obviously going to be if he can sustain his improvements from last season. If you could completely trust his numbers, he’d comfortably be considered very high on this list. But because of his past, there’s more doubt than normal. His looked way more fluky, but Moises Gomez is a good example of a one-year wonder. That’s the fear with Baez.
Scouting (FG): 35/50 Hit, 35/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 40/30 Speed, 40/55 Fielding
Bernal’s scouting reflects his appeal, which is that he’s a well-rounded catcher. He might not be elite at any one thing, but at least his potential reflects an average bat with average power and above average fielding. That doesn’t necessarily sound exciting, but would very clearly be a good starting catcher at the MLB level. There’s really only one question with his bat: why was his BABIP so low? If it was fluky, then there are no worries about his offense. If it was deserved to some extent, contact quality becomes a question mark as he rises up the system.
Clarke would not be the first pitcher nor the last to survive off two elite pitches – hell one that is potentially among the best in baseball – and spotty command, leading to an effective starting pitcher, if not an All-Star. But it’s also not hard to look at his profile and see an elite reliever rather than a starting pitcher. It’s hard to be successful at this level with below average command, not to mention just two pitches. The success of his change will make a huge difference on his future development. Luckily, he does have some time. He doesn’t need to figure it out right now.
Scouting: 35/40 Hit, 40/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 20/20 Speed, 60/70 Fielding
It feels weird to say in a season where Crooks got to make his MLB debut, get his first MLB hit, and hit his first homer, but one could argue his 2025 was something of a disappointment. Not for him professionally of course. One might argue the increased strikeouts has tampered the enthusiasm for Crooks’ bat when he previously had not really displayed contact issues.
On the other hand, he is going to be 24 next season. He had an above average hitting line in AAA. Yeah there’s not a lot of positives to be gleamed from his MLB experience, but it was still experience. I would even argue he may have been pushed too aggressively – with a 105 wRC+ and a .352 BABIP, it’s not a surprise he struggled at the MLB level. And most importantly, his greatest appeal is not his offense at all, but his defense.
There’s no getting around it. Hence had a lost season last year. I debated whether or not to even list his stats, because they were all effectively rehab appearances. He pitched in Low A, High A, and AA, with 3 ‘starts” and 10.2 IP in AA being the most he pitched at any level. The biggest mystery is how the Cardinals will treat Hence if he indeed is healthy. They’ve slow played him to date, trying to preserve his health, which has not necessarily translated into the health they wanted.
More importantly though, if last year was just 21 innings, what exactly does slow playing Hence look like for next season? Surely, they won’t have him only pitch 50 innings? But what is the limit? I do think people can overlook how good Hence was at AA in 2024 though, he struck out 34% of hitters in almost 80 innings. He’s probably ready for AAA. Innings is the main concern though.
It might be beneficial in the long run that Mathews had the 2025 that he did, even though most – myself included – largely expected him to not only debut last season, but to make as many as 20 starts. That didn’t happen. Part of it was his fault, part of it was that nobody really got injured, and part of it was that he didn’t need to be added to the 40 man. As a consequence, we are a year later and he’s kind of in the same situation as he was a year ago – we think he’ll make a good many starts, but he’s behind some guys more likely to make the roster. In this year’s case, the guys ahead of him can be sent down, for the most part, so it’s more possible.
And when I say it might be more beneficial, he had some growing pains maybe better experienced in the minors, but also his service time clock has yet to start. Unless he makes the majors earlier than expected, the Cardinals are looking at 7 years of team control. Well, depending on the CBA of course.
Scouting: 25/50 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 45/40 Speed, 40/60 Fielding
You know there’s a funny thing about scouting. I get where the potential comes in – most sites roughly agree with a prospect’s potential. It’s easy enough to wrap my head around when I see a 55 potential for power or 50 potential for a hit tool. Where I notice some weird elements is in the current element of the scouting. As in I do not believe Rodriguez has 20 game power right now. I don’t know where he came up with that number. However else he would do in the major leagues, I don’t think his power would be comparable to David Eckstein. I think he would hit some homers, maybe nothing close to what he’s doing in the minors, but a 20? That suggests absolutely no power whatsoever.
Anyway, I’ll probably be commenting on weird scouting grades all voting, because it’s an easy thing for me to rant about. This is but one of many.
As with last time, I have simply given you a link to the actual poll. It doesn’t let me embed the poll onto this site, but the link should work fine. This was well-received last time, so I’m just going to keep using this method until it fails me.
It’s hard to believe that the Red Sox are about one quarter as many years removed from the 2004 World Series as the total length of the curse that was broken that year. A huge difference, of course, was the addition of three more trophies. With the announcement of Jon Lester being enshrined the the Red Sox and Cubs’ respective Halls of Fame and his pending addition to the Hall of Fame ballot that will come out later this year for the Class of 2027, let’s look back at the ‘06 and ‘16 teams before 2026 begins.
2006
The 2005 season ended tumultuously. The Red Sox backed into a tie with the ascendant New York Yankees and were quickly bumped from the postseason. The Chicago White Sox would win the World Series with the dominance of a team using trash cans and buzzers. Theo Epstein would flee Fenway Park in a gorilla suit for a short sabbatical.
While he was gone, the Red Sox would trade Hanley Ramirez an Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett. Big free agent signing Edgar Renteria would be traded for Atlanta Braves third base prospect Andy Marte. Peter Gammons would declare that the offseason would be remembered for Marte and not Beckett. So it was then a surprise when Marte would be shipped off to Cleveland for Coco Crisp.
Jonathan Papelbon, who made his major league debut in 2005, would miss out on a rotation spot in Spring Training but find a home in the bullpen. Given his career to follow, that sure worked out!
Johnny Damon would become a New York Yankee. But hopes were high. Fresh off 95 wins and adding a new center fielder and slick-fielding shortstop Álex González – plus the return of Theo Epstein – things felt good. And they looked good. For a while.
Boston headed into the All-Star Break with a .616 winning percentage and a 53-33 record. The 19-inning walkoff loss to the Chicago White Sox should have been a warning of things to come but who is really that superstitious about baseball?
Boston would suffer injuries to Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon its rapid succession. Jon Lester would make his debut and then also hit the IL with a sore back. He would later add a cancer diagnosis to his medical woes.
Then there was the five game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees.
All-in-all it would be a 33-43 second half that would see Boston finish in 3rd place behind even the Toronto Blue Jays. The first time since 1997 that Boston did not finish second in the AL East, 86-76.
David Ortiz would hit a career-high 54 home runs, taking the Red Sox record from Jimmie Foxx who hit 50 homers for Boston back in 1938.
As a coda, Alex Cora would play in 96 games and hit .238/.312/.298
2016
If the 2006 Red Sox had some recent history to live up to, the 2016 club most certainly did not. After the 2011 collapse, 2012 dismantling (the Punto Trade), 2013 World Series out of nowhere, there were suddenly back-to-back last place seasons. Behind the Blue Jays, behind the Rays, and behind the Orioles. Ben Charington? More like Ben-barrassment.
Dave Dombrowski technically came in August of 2015 but that season was settled before his hiring. The offseason would be his first chance to really begin.
And begin he did.
Dealin’ Dave would trade for Craig Kimbrel and sign Chris Young (the centerfielder not the pitcher). Then he did what Dombrowski does: hand out a massive deal. Welcome to Boston, David Price!
In the draft that summer he’d acquire legendary Boston Red Sox Bobby Dalbec.
And Dave’s first year was a smashing success.
The Sox would once again go from worst to first and took over the AL East once more.
They’d go 49-38 (.563) in the first half and 44-31 (.587) in the second.
He’d add Aaron Hill, Brad Ziegler, and Drew Pomeranz before the trade deadline.
Mookie Betts would have a 9.8 bWAR season.
Xander Bogaerts would solidify shortstop while hitting .294/.356/.446 with 21 homers and 13 steals.
Jackie Bradley Jr. hit 26 home runs!
Big Papi would slash .315/.401/.620 on his retirement tour.
The magic would stop when they got to October, however. Cleveland, helmed by Terry Franconia, would sweep them out of the ALDS in three games.
2026
Craig Breslow and Alex Cora, teammates on that 2006 team, are still finishing the roster and lineup as January has more days behind it than ahead.
Ranger Suárez is, kinda, their David Price of 2016.
Roman Anthony is their Mookie Betts – for the story if not quite the on field production.
Can they top 2016 or will the season, like so many recently, sputter out like 2006?
