Category: Baseball

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Two teams desperately seeking wins will face off on Friday night as the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets.

Atlanta comes in as a slight -104 favorite tonight, but I’m taking New York to win on the road in my Mets vs. Braves predictions.

Read on to see my full analysis as I reveal my free MLB picks for Friday, July 3.

Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Mets moneyline (+100)

While the New York Mets have been brutal offensively, they have a habit of making good contact, ranking third in hard-hit percentage at 41.6%. That’s a problem for Atlanta Braves starter Grant Holmes, who allows a 44.7% hard-hit rate and only strikes out 20.7% of batters.

The Braves boast an 8.8% barrel rate themselves, but New York starter Christian Scottonly gives up barrels on 6.0% of hit balls and has a good average exit velocity of just 87.9 mph.

With the Mets holding a small edge in these matchups, I like New York at -110 or better.

COVERS INTEL: The Mets have a 20.5% air pull rate against fastballs and sliders thrown by righties, pitches that make up 71% of Holmes’ arsenal.

Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-127)

Atlanta hasn’t scored more than five runs in a game in any of its last seven contests, and may struggle against Scott’s sweeper, as they have just a 21.8% air pull rate against the pitch, which ranks 23rd in MLB. The Mets are third-worst in the majors in run scoring, having put up just 3.98 runs per game on the year.

Given those trends and a solid pitching matchup, it’s hard to see a whole lot of runs coming tonight. This total is far too high, and I’m taking the Under at 8.5 runs or more.

Mets vs Braves weather

Mets vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: New York +102 | Atlanta -104
• Run line: New York -1.5 (+159) | Atlanta +1.5 (-167)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-122) | Under 8.5 (-131)

Mets vs Braves trend

Atlanta is 2-8 straight up in its last 10 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.

How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info

Mets vs Braves latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

There’s a chance of storms in Chicago this afternoon. So here’s the local radar to keep handy.

Today’s roster move: Here

Friday notes…

• DOUBLE FIGURES, PART 1: Wednesday’s 23-3 demolition of the Padres was the 10th game this season in which the Cubs scored at least 10 runs. They had 22 double-digit games last season, after having had only 12 in 2024, half their total in 2023. They are 5-4 this year in their next games after double-digit outbursts. Since 2000, they are 165-158 in next games and have averaged 4.80 runs in those games. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• DOUBLE FIGURES, PART 2: The Cubs had not scored 10 or more runs at home against the Padres since an 11-7 win on May 28, 2012, their longest such drought against any National League opponent. Their longest now is against the Marlins, since a 13-4 win on May 9, 2018. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• A HIT MACHINE: The Cubs have made 40 hits in their last three games: 10, 13 and 17. They had made only 16 in their previous three, and a total of 41 in their previous seven. The Cubs made double-digit hits in five straight games April 12-17 and in four straight April 21-24. This is their first streak of at least three games since then. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• DANSBY SWANSON’S CASE FOR PLAYER OF THE WEEK: In the three games so far this week, Swanson is batting .615/.615/1.846 (8-for-13) with a double, five home runs, 11 RBI, seven runs scored and only one strikeout.

Cubs lineup:

The Cardinals lineup was not available at posting time. Please check BCB social media for the Cardinals lineup.

David Peterson, LHP vs. Andre Pallante, RHP

David Peterson’s first Cubs start, last Friday in Milwaukee, was a success. This despite seeing the first pitch he threw in a Cubs uniform deposited into the seats by Jackson Chourio. After that he was really good.

Peterson faced the Cardinals three weeks ago in New York and trust me, you do not want to look at this boxscore link. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. That night Peterson was being used as a “bulk guy” after an opener, so this game will obviously be different, and, hopefully, better.

Andre Pallante threw three innings against the Cubs May 29 in St. Louis and allowed eight hits and four runs. Ian Happ smashed a three-run homer off him in the first inning.

Pallante posted a 3.16 ERA in five June starts, and that would have been better if he hadn’t allowed five runs in 6.2 innings in his most recent start, June 27 vs. the Marlins.

Pallante doesn’t strike out or walk a lot of guys so the Cubs should look to put the ball in play.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Cardinals site Viva el Birdos. If you do go there to interact with Cardinals fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

The Atlanta Braves are set to face their division rival for the second time this year. The last-place New York Mets took the first series, scoring high in their wins back in June. Grant Holmes is set to take the mound and is looking to kick the series off on a high note.

Holmes is taking the place of Bryce Elder, whose velocity dropped in his last outing. And for Holmes’ (3.96 ERA) last appearance, he pitched through four innings and only gave up one hit and no runs. Across his last seven outings, his ERA has risen to 4.20, and he has gotten a career-low 20.7% strikeout rate in 2026 during his third year in the league.

He’s hoping that this matchup will improve those stats, along with his career-high 11.1% walk rate.

Mets’ Christian Scott is currently boasting a 3.20 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP after his return from the IL just a few weeks ago. In his last outing against the Phillies (June 27), he pitched through four innings and gave up two runs, three hits and two walks with six strikeouts to add.

He said that his main goal was to establish his offspeed stuff early in the game, but otherwise, he felt he’s been consistent with landing his pitches in the zone.

Scott plans to get a head start, still in the process of bouncing back and regaining his strength from injury. Holmes will need to emulate the same game plan, but also give positive signs of showing up strong for the Braves on the defensive end. The offense, on the other hand, will have to hold down its end.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Friday, July 3, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

After a feel-good four-game sweep of the Yankees, the Washington Nationals were the next challenge and after winning game one the Sox crashed hard. We don’t need to go into the next two games eccept for the impact on the road trip: No Willson Contreras, essentially.

For the most important stretch of the season remaining – 6 games against two mediocre teams and 3 against a good White Sox club – the Red Sox may be without their best player this season (non-Durbin division). Seven games out of 162 is about 4.3% of the season. With the All-Star Break, Cavalli may not functionally miss a start at all depending on how the Nationals reset their rotation. Not ideal.

The Angels have been reeling. Mike Trout, in the midst of a big year, hit the IL. The team fired their GM, and the Angels are headed to yet another losing season. Los Angeles is sitting at 36-51 to Boston’s 37-48 record entering play.

Jake Bennett is coming off a masterful start against the Yankees. 6.1 innings and 1 run to the former first place AL East club. He’s looking like an excellent acquisition by Craig Breslow. If he turns into a solid rotation member that’s a tremendous win for even a very good prospect who is more suited for relief. He’ll face Reid Detmers. The Angels starter has been up since 2021 and is breaking out this season. Detmers was hit hard for 8 runs in 5.2 innings on May 13 but then put up a true gem: 8 innings, 1 run, 14 Ks. And has mostly been cruising since then. He had as hiccup against the A’s in their minor league park but then handled them better at home. He is a lefty so hopefully we’ll see some vintage Romy vs Lefty magic.

Sonny Gray has been the #2 that was promised. What else can you say at this point? He’s making a great case to be traded or to stick around and just anchor the rotation that has lost all the depth from March. Someone needs to pitch innings. He’s opposed by a second lefty, Sam Aldegheri. In his third season in Anaheim, Aldegheri is not having the breakout Detmers has enjoyed. He only strikes out 15% of batters but walks 9.8% so this might be a short night if the Sox are hitting. He’s allowed 4 home runs in his 29 big league innings this year across 5 starts (8 total games).

Ranger Suarez missed out on the fun against the Yankees but pitched the Sox to their only win against the Nationals. Striking out 8 in 6.0 innings he turned in another solid start this year. There’s usually an inning where he runs into some trouble but he’s so good he can get out of almost any jam. Ryan Johnson, fresh off his latest Knives Out sequel will finish the series for the Angels. A righty, he’s strugglesd. Although an ERA over seven…we’ve seen this story before in 2026. Will it drop to 6.50 or lower if the bats take the night off?

Mike Trout is on the IL. As is old friend Yoán Moncada.

Zach Neto is leading the Angels with 18 homers.

Another old friend, Vaughn Grissom, is hitting .231/.311/.369.

Jarren Duran is coming off an absolutely brutal .144/.168/.227 month of June after his .261/.331/.548 line in May. Will July treat him better?

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, July 3: Jake Bennett (3.27 ERA / 3.11 FIP) vs. Reid Detmers (3.88 ERA /2.96 FIP)

Saturday, July 4: Sonny Gray (2.69 ERA / 3.58 FIP) vs. Sam Aldegheri (4.85 ERA / 4.93 FIP)

Sunday, July 5: Ranger Suarez (2.94 ERA / 2.72 FIP) vs. Ryan Johnson (7.40 ERA / 6.07 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, July 3: 9:38 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, July 4: 9:38 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, July 5: 9:30 PM ET on NESN

Pitchers Joe Ross and Chris Paddack and outfielder Jarred Kelenic, all of whom were designated for assignment several days ago, have all cleared waivers and become free agents.

Paddack was signed on June 29 for a one shot deal, pitching as the bulk guy behind opener Tyler Alexander on June 29 in Cleveland and then being DFA’d the next day. He gave the Rangers four innings of two run ball in the win, making it a successful signing, as far as I’m concerned. I imagine the Rangers will be looking to sign him to a minor league contract now to pitch for Round Rock, whose rotation is rather puny right now.

Ross and Kelenic were designated for assignment on June 29, clearing roster spots for Paddack and for Cam Cauley. Ross was brought up from AAA because the Rangers needed an arm in the pen, and in five games he went eighth innings and allowed five runs. His most notable appearance was his third outing for the Rangers, when he came into the game to start the top of the 10th inning against the Padres, walked Samad Taylor, and then gave up a three run homer to Manny Machado.

Kelenic was up because, well, the Rangers needed a body that could play the outfield on the bench. When Wyatt Langford went on the injured list and the Rangers needed a righthanded hitter rather than a lefthanded hitter who could play outfield on the bench, the Rangers dropped him for Cauley.

What a great turn of events. Logan Webb’s season looked like it was heading into a ditch at full speed after pitching to a 5.06 ERA (3.57 FIP) and an IL stint. One silly writer even speculated that he might be cooked. Instead, he’s been named the National League Pitcher of the Month for June after going 3-1 with a 0.71 ERA (2.24 FIP) in 5 starts.

He was his dominant old self. The face of the Giants. The ace of the team. One of the best pitchers in the sport. This compelled one fabulist writer to suggest that the Giants should look into trading him at this year’s deadline.

Major League Baseball’s press release also cites these meaningful stats:

– The two-time All-Star dealt at least 7.0 innings in all five of his starts, becoming the first Giants pitcher to make five consecutive starts of at least 7.0 innings since Ty Blach did so twice in 2017. Webb permitted two-or-fewer runs in all five starts, becoming the first Giants pitcher since Madison Bumgarner in 2013 (6 GS) to make at least five consecutive starts of 7.0 innings and two-or-fewer runs permitted. Overall, his eight starts of at least 7.0 innings this season are tied with Nathan Eovaldi, Sánchez and Michael Wacha for the most in the Majors.

– The 2025 Rawlings Gold Glover became the third Giants pitcher in the Divisional Era (since 1969) to throw at least 35.0 innings in a single month and maintain an ERA under 0.75, joining Kevin Gausman (37.0 IP, 0.73 ERA in May 2021) and Noah Lowry (39.1 IP, 0.69 ERA in August 2005). Of the group, Webb’s four walks were the fewest.“

But Webb has looked like the best version of himself since returning from the injured list and it has been a rare respite from the hellacious viewing experience that has often been the San Francisco Giants here in 2026. His starts make it feel as though anything is possible.

Remarkably, his rotation mate Robbie Ray also received votes (4-0, 1.36 ERA). His resurgence has timed out nicely with the trade deadline, too…

But anyway, Logan Webb returning to out-pitch the likes of Jacob Misiorowski, Max Meyer, and Chris Sale is a great story, whether you’re just rooting for the Giants or rooting for the Giants to make some big deadline deals. Well, okay, there’s also the conversation about Logan Webb becoming an All-Star now, and either serving as the team’s lone representative or as a travel partner for somebody else (Luis Arraez, Casey Schmitt)?

Congratulations to Logan Webb on another career achievement. He’s sort of building a ground-up case to someday win a Cy Young Award, creating a reputational aura that might push him to be top of mind come that award in the future. But here in the present, it’s good enough to know that he was never really gone but now he’s incredibly back and, as the players say, shoving.

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A pair of AL Central rivals continue their four-game set tonight as the Cleveland Guardians play host to the Chicago White Sox.

Despite missing Munetaka Murakami for the past month, Chicago continues to hit the ball well, which is part of why I’m backing the White Sox as +114 underdogs. 

Find out more in my White Sox vs. Guardians predictions and free MLB picks for Friday, July 3.

Who will win White Sox vs Guardians today: White Sox (+114)

The Chicago White Sox are still without Munetaka Murakami, but that hasn’t slowed them down.

Over the past 30 days, Chicago ranks tied for fifth in the AL in runs scored (122) and fourth in SLG (.435). The White Sox have been red hot this week, averaging 7.28 runs per game while hitting .296 as a team.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are last in runs (88), batting average (.218), and OPS (.632) over the past month.

There’s clear value to be had here on Chicago at +114, and I’d play them to +110.

COVERS INTEL:Guardians starter Gavin Williams goes to the curveball often, and the White Sox rank sixth in SLG (.410) and third in wOBA (.320) against that pitch.

White Sox vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)

Both starters have been brutal of late, which should help nullify Cleveland’s sluggish offense. Gavin Williams finished with a 6.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in June, while Anthony Kay posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over that same span.

The Over has cashed in each of the past five starts for both Williams and Kay, while the Over is also 4-1 in the past five games for both clubs.

I’ll play this to +100.

White Sox vs Guardians weather

Temperatures will be humid and sit in the mid-to-upper 80s around first pitch, further buoying our play on the Over at Progressive Field.

White Sox vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: White Sox +114 | Guardians -126
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-183) | Guardians -1.5 (+158)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-121)

White Sox vs Guardians trend

Chicago has hit the team total Over in 24 of its last 35 road games (+12.70 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians.

How to watch White Sox vs Guardians and game info

White Sox vs Guardians latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Shi Davidi tells us that Kazuma Okamoto was named AL Rookie of the Month. Only slightly unfair, as he’s not a 30-year-old rookie who played several seasons in the majors in Japan. But we aren’t going have many guy get awards, this year, so lets enjoy.

Okamoto had 7 home runs, 20 RBI, 4 doubles and 8 walks with a .286/.353/.560 batting line in 25 games. And played very nice defense, which I wasn’t expecting. I don’t think he’s going to be a Gold Glover, or anything (though if Vlad can be, who knows) but he seem serviceable to me.

The pitching matchings:

• Today: Dylan Cease (4-4, 3.02) vs. Luis Castillo (3-6, 4.93). That’s a 10:00 Eastern start.
• Tomorrow (July Fourth): Shane Bieber (0-0, 6.00) vs. Logan Gilbert (6-5, 3.42). 4:00 Eastern
• Sunday: Trey Yesavage (4-3, 3.34) vs. Clay Kirby (7-7, 3.91). 5:00 Eastern start.

Then the Jays are off to San Francisco for three games, with Thursday off after.

And Max Scherzer starts Friday for the Vancouver Canadians. They are saying that he’ll need a few rehab starts.

June was not a great month: 11-15. Our pitchers had their worst month by ERA at 4.56. There were a few starters who had some disappointing starts. The starters had a 5.73 ERA on the month and averaged just 4.6 innings per start. The relievers had a better time, 3.33 ERA, their best month, but they threw a ton of innings.

The batters had their best OPS by month of the season. .710. But they averaged 3.9 runs per game. In May they averaged 4.2 runs and in April 3.9.

Rowdy gets DFAed. He’s only had 11 PA with the Braves, but hit will in AAA, .259/.367/.483 with 8 home runs in 49 games.

During his most recent stint with the Cubs, left-hander Jordan Wicks threw pretty well: Four innings of relief, one run allowed, a pair of strikeouts. He also picked up two saves.

Wicks threw 40 pitches in Wednesday’s win over the Padres, and so the Cubs optioned him to Triple-A Iowa on the off day Thursday, per the team’s transactions page.

To replace Wicks on the 26-man active roster, the Cubs added left-hander Drew Pomeranz, who they signed to a minor-league deal June 22 after he was released by the Angels June 18. Pomeranz has thrown two scoreless innings at Iowa, with three strikeouts. He last pitched Wednesday, throwing 18 pitches. There was an open spot on the 40-man roster to add Pomeranz, so the 40-man is now full.

Pomeranz had a really good year for the Cubs in 2025, posting a 2.17 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 57 appearances covering 49.2 innings. He walked 15 and struck out 57 in those innings. The Cubs declined to re-sign him and he signed a one-year deal with the Angels for $4 million.

He got off to a rough start in Anaheim (though he did throw 1.1 scoreless innings against the Cubs March 31 at Wrigley Field), but over his last 12 appearances for them he posted an ERA of 0.77 and a 1.286 WHIP, suggesting he could possibly get back to last year’s level. The Angels got rid of him anyway, and since he was released, the Cubs are only on the hook for a pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary for Pomeranz for the rest of this season.

Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar were a pretty good 1-2 combo out of the pen last year. Granted, both are a year older and both have struggled at times in 2026, but perhaps this “putting the band back together” move can help a beleaguered Cubs bullpen.

As always, we await developments.

Thank goodness for the Angels. The Mariners climbed back over .500 with a sweep of their division rival after a brief dip below that mark following their series in Cleveland last weekend. The three wins against Los Angeles allowed Seattle to keep pace with the Rangers in the division and pull ahead of the faltering Athletics and Astros. They’ll wrap up this homestand with a jam packed weekend series against the Blue Jays.

This rematch of last year’s ALCS isn’t nearly as exciting as it could have been. Like the Mariners, the Blue Jays have largely scuffled to start this year following their deep postseason run last fall. Injuries have played a huge role in those struggles; Toronto currently has 10 players on the IL and has lost the second most total WARP of any team this season according to the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger. The starting rotation has been hit particularly hard but the lineup has suffered plenty of impactful injuries as well. Combined with a pretty sizable playoff hangover from some of their stars, the Blue Jays are stuck in the morass of mediocre teams in the middle of the AL.

That’s not a typo: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s isolated power currently starts with a zero. He’s hit just four home runs this year and is limping through the worst season of his career. His groundball rate is up slightly, though not outside the range he’s posted throughout his career, but his hard hit rate is down more than five points and his barrel rate has been cut in half. For whatever reason, his contact quality has taken a steep dive this year. George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho have all taken pretty significant steps backwards this season as well. The good news is that Kazuma Okamoto has made a strong transition over from Japan; he’s blasted 19 home runs already and is running a 119 wRC+ even after a rough April when he was getting acclimated to MLB pitching. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Dylan Cease was the Blue Jays’ headlining acquisition this past offseason when he signed a seven-year, $210 million free agent contract just before Thanksgiving. He’s long been one of baseball’s best strikeout artists, though all those punchouts come with some spotty command. He’s usually able to make it work because he can just work out of any trouble he gets into by avoiding contact altogether, but he can also be prone to big blowups from time to time if his command really slips. He primarily relies on a hard fastball and a nasty slider as his out pitches. He’s increased the usage of his changeup this year and it’s been nearly unhittable; the whiff rate on his offspeed pitch is over 66%!

Shane Bieber missed nearly all of 2024 and most of ‘25 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Traded to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline last year, he was solid enough down the stretch, though Toronto’s deep run in the playoffs likely contributed to the forearm fatigue he was diagnosed with this spring. He wound up missing the first three months of the season and only made his return from the IL a few weeks ago. At his peak, he utilized pinpoint command of a pair of breaking balls to make up for a pretty mediocre fastball. His command has mostly eluded him after his elbow injury and his fastball quality has further deteriorated. That doesn’t bode well for his ability to stay productive until he can find a way to adjust.

In his first professional season, Trey Yesavage rose from Single-A all the way to the big leagues last year and ultimately helped lead the Blue Jays to their World Series appearance. It was a tremendous debut. A minor shoulder injury delayed his start to this season, but once he returned healthy, he picked up right where he left off. Everything is vertical with Yesavage’s profile. His extreme over-the-top delivery helps him produce a ton of carry on his fastball, and his two secondary pitches have very little horizontal break on them. His splitter continues to be a devastating pitch and he’s been able to improve the command of his slider this year.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers lost on Wednesday to allow the idle Mariners to slip into a tie atop the AL West, but won the first game of a three-game set against the Tigers yesterday. Texas and Detroit are off on Friday to accommodate a World Cup game in Arlington but will resume their series on Saturday. The Astros lost their series to the Twins this week and will play host to the hottest team in the AL this weekend, the Rays, winners of eight straight. The Athletics couldn’t keep up with the Dodgers, though they managed to salvage a win on Wednesday. They host the red hot Marlins this weekend, the team with the best record in baseball in June.

The St. Louis Cardinals will celebrate the 4th of July weekend against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this weekend. The Cardinals archrivals are nearly as hot as the weather the past two weeks and it will present a challenging weekend for St. Louis to be successful.

The last 10 games tell a completely opposite story for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs. A couple weeks ago, the Cardinals were ahead of the Cubs in the National League Central standings, but the streaking Cubs have leapfrogged the Cardinals and are now within a handful of games of the front-running Milwaukee Brewers. The Chicago Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 games while the St. Louis Cardinals are 4-6. That amazing come-from-behind win Thursday night gives them great momentum, though. According to MLB.com, here are the pitching matchups for St. Louis and Chicago this weekend:

Friday, July 3 – Andre Pallante RHP 9-5, 3.83 ERA, 68 SO vs David Peterson LHP 4-6, 5.86 ERA, 65 SO

Saturday, July 4 – Kyle Leahy RHP 6-4, 4.09 ERA, 67 SO vs Shota Imanaga LHP 5-6, 4.30 ERA, 92 SO

Sunday, July 5 – Matthew Liberatore LHP 4-5, 5.33 ERA, 79 SO vs Javier Assad RHP 6-1, 4.53 ERA, 31 SO

David Peterson won his most recent start against the Milwaukee Brewers going 5 2/3 innings allowing 2 earned runs and just 5 hits. Shota Imanaga earned a no-decision against the San Diego Padres on June 29 tossing 6 1/3 innings allowing 9 hits, but just 2 earned runs. Javier Assad only lasted 2 2/3 innings against the Padres on June 30 as he gave up 4 earned runs on 5 hits.

The Chicago Cubs offense has been on fire the past couple of weeks. Dansby Swanson hit 5 home runs over a 19-hour span driving in 11 runs during his outburst. Over his last 10 games, Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong hit .289, recording 11 hits (including 3 home runs), 9 RBIs, 9 runs scored, and 2 stolen bases. Ian Happ has been red-hot also over his last 10 games, batting .341 with 14 hits, 4 home runs, 14 RBIs, and 7 runs scored. Seiya Suzuki has been on a tear, batting .317 with 13 hits, 2 home runs, 11 RBIs, and 7 runs scored in his past 10 games. One Cub who hasn’t been hot is Alex Bregman. Over his past 10 games, Alex Bregman has batted .222 (7 for 32) with 1 home run, 4 RBIs, and 5 runs scored. He also drew 7 walks, boosting his on-base percentage to .368.

Based on recent trends, it would appear that the St. Louis Cardinals will have their hands full over the 4th of July weekend, but that’s why we play baseball games instead of just study their numbers. You never know what will happen between the bases especially when it’s the Cardinals and Cubs at Wrigley Field.

It was an interesting poll this week, me asking you which player should get a contract extension first were the Phillies to offer someone one. Here are the results:

That’s about as close to a 50/50 split as you can get.

If we’re focusing in on Jhoan Duran, I see why the team would want to make sure he is locked up for the foreseeable future. His dominance on the mound means some team is going to eventually pay for his services, his age also a factor in discussion as he’s still relatively young enough that good years are likely still ahead of him. At this point, a deal similar to the first one the Mets gave Edwin Diaz is probably the starting point for any kind of extension offer the Phillies would give to him in order to keep him off of the open market.

The looming issue in that is the CBA discussions happening right now. What if somehow there is a salary cap put into place? Would the Phillies even be able to extend Duran to a figure that would be commensurate with his ability and past comps to his profile? He still has another year of arbitration left, so nothing is particularly pressing, plus the team probably wants to see what the endgame of the negotiations looks like between the league and the player’s association before committing to anything substantial with Duran or Brandon Marsh for that matter. But if it were up to you, Duran would be the first choice to get a deal done.

This post brought to you by FanDuel.

There’s really no way to sugarcoat the way the Yankees are playing right now. The offense is impotent, the starting pitching has been suspect, and the defense unacceptable. It’s all added up to a season-high seven-game losing streak and a plummeting from 3.5 games up in the standings to four games behind the Rays for first in a two-week span. There have been very few moments worthy of praise during this barren spell, but one that absolutely stands out was Yovanny Cruz’s two scoreless innings with three strikeouts against the Tigers on Tuesday in his first appearance since being called up from Triple-A for the second time this season.

We join Cruz to open the seventh inning with the Yankees already trailing, 9-2. It’s as much a mop-up role as it is an audition to see if he merits sticking in the big league bullpen for longer than the two games of his initial cup of coffee back in May. Stepping into the box to lead off the inning is Kerry Carpenter, a lefty presenting an immediate extra challenge for the righty Cruz. Carpenter has already homered in the first off a Cam Schlittler cutter, hinting at the danger of throwing a pitch that breaks toward him.

One of the most important things for Cruz — and indeed any reliever — is to get ahead in the count with the first pitch. The difference between 0-1 and 1-0, especially late in games, is enormous. As such, there’s no messing about here, Cruz hoofing his fastball in the zone.

Um, what did I just see? My attention immediately snapped to the TV when I saw 101 on the corner inside and at the knees for called strike one. That’s almost an un-hittable pitch. For the rest of this AB, and frankly the rest of Cruz’s outing, my antenna was up. I knew he had high octane stuff from his initial cup of coffee but this is another level entirely. It’s such a crucial pitch to garner the strike one call in that spot, opening up bountiful opportunities for chases on the back-foot slider.

That’s exactly what is on the mind of Cruz and Ali Sánchez, the backstop immediately calling for a slider below the zone.

Cruz misses his spot, but earns the strike two call by back-dooring the mislocated slider to the corner up and away. While he certainly did not intend that location, it reminds me of an interesting point that David Cone has brought up on recent broadcasts. He talked about how effective a weapon the high slider can be for called strikes — despite the age-old prescription that an elevated slider is a dangerous pitch to throw. Because the pitch looks like a ball high out of the hand, it is common for the hitter to give up on it early. And because a slider has later movement than other breaking balls like the curveball or sweeper, hitters often don’t have time to react upon seeing the downward break that brings the pitch into the zone. Again, I’m not sure this was the intention from Cruz here, but it worked exactly how Coney described.

With the count quickly 0-2, I expected Cruz to stick with his wipeout slider and focus on better execution down and in.

Wait a second, Cruz throws a splitter now?!?! Not only that, but it’s a totally disgusting pitch?!?! This looks like one of those classic Fernando Cruz splitters that just nosedives off the table about halfway to home, except this one is thrown at 90 mph. Carpenter somehow catches the slightest nick foul to stay alive, though Sánchez is convinced that it was a clean whiff.

When you can throw a splitter with that much late diving movement and command it to your spot, you just have to stick with that pitch and let the hitter get himself out, as we have seen from Fernando Cruz in some of his highest leverage spots.

This one isn’t executed quite as well as the first one, catching a fat part of the plate down and in. However, Carpenter is again fooled as I suspect the scouting report said nothing about Cruz throwing a splitter. He swings as if it’s a four-seamer at the belt, meaning he is way early and over the top and can only pound it foul into the ground around home plate.

Carpenter has shown zero indication that he is able to adjust to this splitter, so all Cruz needs to do is command one a bit lower than the last one and he should get the strikeout swinging.

That is exactly what Cruz is able to achieve, unleashing a filthy splitter on the corner low and away. Carpenter still hasn’t made the adjustment and he is made to look foolish whiffing way out in front of this pitch that would have been called strike three even if he had left the bat on his shoulder. You can’t get much closer to a perfect pitch than this.

Here’s the full sequence:

Is it possible Fernando Cruz helped teach his new bullpen mate his disappearing splitter? Cruz threw seven splitters on Tuesday, the pitch averaging 90.2 mph and 32 inches of drop. That would place his splitter immediately into the elite tier when it comes to movement, the nearest comp for the pitch being Roki Sasaki’s splitter, which exhibits the 13th-most vertical drop vs. average of any splitter in MLB. It’s the type of overwhelming movement that can make the pitch a platoon-neutral offering, nasty enough to elicit whiffs from both right-handed and left-handed batters.

Yovanny Cruz has been pretty much untouchable in his first three MLB appearances. He has faced 15 batters and allowed one hit and no walks while striking out six. The question for him has always been his strike-throwing ability, and it certainly appears he has started to iron out those issues. After getting sent back down following his two appearances in May, Cruz slashed his walk rate from 12.2-percent to 7.1-percent with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, and the fact that he has yet to issue a walk at the big league level lends further credence to these improvements.

Although the Yankees’ bullpen has been crying out for better swing-and-miss stuff, they curiously made the decision to demote Cruz after the matinee on Wednesday. David Bednar needed to be activated off the paternity list, but one can’t help but wonder if perhaps they might have been better off dropping someone else instead.

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Crack open a cold one because the long holiday weekend has finally arrived. To kick off the festivities, we're bypassing the heavy favorites and hunting for pure value on Friday's baseball board.

I'm backing multiple live dogs tonight, including the Twins and Padres, to cash some high-yielding tickets before the fireworks even start in my MLB moneyline predictions.

Here is my deep dive into Friday’s MLB picks for July 3.

Matchup	Pick
Cardinals vs Cubs	<<-120>>
Pirates vs Nationals	<<-133>>
Twins vs Yankees	<<+167>>
Orioles vs Reds	<<-113>>
White Sox vs Guardians	<<+122>>
Mets vs Braves	<<+106>>
Giants vs Rockies	<<+138>>
Rays vs Astros	<<+102>>
Red Sox vs Angels	<<-102>>
Marlins vs Athletics	<<-122>>
Brewers vs Diamondbacks	<<-141>>
Padres vs Dodgers	<<+228>>
Blue Jays vs Mariners	<<-117>>

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-3.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 3

Cardinals vs. Cubs: Cubs (-120)

Cubs win probability: 55%

Does anyone want to get in front of the red hot Chicago Cubs right now? The Cardinals in their last six games own a 40 wRC+, .494 OPS and .092 ISO. Meanwhile, the Cubs have a 156 wRC+, .399 wOBA and .923 OPS during that span.

Take the Cubs on the eve of this holiday weekend.

Pirates vs. Nationals: Nationals (-133)

Nationals win probability: 57%

Nationals right hander Foster Griffin has been on a tear over his last five outings, owning a 1.15 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 27.50% strikeout rate. The Pirates have been very swing happy this past week, owning a 29.3% strikeout rate, while the Nationals have been no better, they have still one of the most lethal offenses in baseball. James Wood has gone cold as of late, but he is still producing a 92% hard hit rate. Insane. 

I like the Nationals here. 

Twins vs. Yankees: Twins (+167)

Twins win probability: 38%

I am going to keep this super short.

The  New York Yankees own a 1 wRC+ in their last six games. One. They are frozen solid.

Take the value in the Twins. 

Orioles vs. Reds: Orioles (-113)

Orioles win probability: 53%

Despite having a horrific start to the year, Trevor Rogers has turned this around as of late. The Orioles southpaw owns a 1.40 ERA, 2.07 xERA and 0.78 WHIP in his last three starts. I think his recent dominance continues and he leads the Orioles to a win this evening. 

White Sox vs. Guardians: White Sox (+122)

White Sox win probability: 45%

This feels like a clear bounce back spot after last night’s heartbreaking loss. Snagging the White Sox at +122 looks like the right angle, leaning into the power of friendship and a get right spot. Anthony Kay has also been steady lately, posting a 3.65 xERA over his last three starts. If he can deliver six solid innings, Chicago should be in a strong position to close it out and cash.

Mets vs. Braves: Mets (+106)

Mets win probability: 48%

I am already backing Juan Soto this evening, so why not take the entire Mets team? Christian Scott has been on a tear on the road, while Grant Holmes has been getting lit up by left handed hitters. I like the Mets as an underdog here, especially with how inconsistent both teams have been. Feels like the price is right, give me the value.

Giants vs. Rockies: Rockies (+138)

Rockies win probability: 42%

Sure, Logan Webb is on the mound for the Giants, and he has been nails, but so has the Rockies offense lately. Ryan Feltner for Colorado has also been solid in his recent starts, posting a 2.70 ERA over his last three outings.

I like the value on the Rockies.

Rays vs. Astros: Astros (+102)

Astros win probability: 50%

Rays starter Nick Martinez has slowly been regressing over his last five starts, as he owns a 5.14 ERA in that span. Spencer Arrighetti has not been much better overall, but at home he has been solid, posting a 3.56 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

I think after a massive week at home, hitting the road could cool down a Rays offense that has been on fire lately. I am willing to take the risk here.

Red Sox vs. Angels: Angels (-102)

Angels win probability: 50%

Both offenses have been ice cold as of late, so we are going to have to back the better pitcher. Red Sox left hander Jake Bennett has been nails in his last three outings, but Reid Detmers has been consistent all season long, owning a 2.88 xERA on the year with a 1.06 WHIP as well.

Give me the hometown team to come through.

Marlins vs. Athletics: Athletics (-122)

Athletics win probability: 55%

The Athletics offense has been pretty cold this past week, but they draw Marlins right hander Tyler Phillips, who has a 5.00 ERA, 5.02 xERA, and 1.37 WHIP in his last five starts. Phillips allows a ton of hard contact, and this should be a good spot for the Athletics to get back on track.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks: Brewers (-141)

Brewers win probability: 58%

The lone winner of the Rafael Devers trade, Kyle Harrison and man has he had himself a season! The left hander owns a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the year. He draws a very cold Diamondbacks offense, while having one of the hottest offenses backing him this evening. 

Brewers. Pay the juice.

Padres vs. Dodgers: Padres (+228)

Padres win probability: 30%

It is either the Padres come out with a chip on their shoulder after blowing an early 6-0 lead last night, or they tuck their tail. Either way, I think taking the Padres at +228 is worth the sprinkle. The offense has been hitting the ball very well this past week, and they could get their revenge this evening.

Take the value!

Blue Jays vs. Mariners: Blue Jays (-117)

Blue Jays win probability: 54%

Another game featuring two ice cold offenses, and I have to take the better pitcher, which means backing Blue Jays right hander Dylan Cease. On the season he owns a 3.02 ERA, 2.79 xERA, and a 1.24 WHIP. These numbers have been consistent all season long.

Luis Castillo on the other end has been a literal punching bag, and the Blue Jays offense should be able to break out against the heavy fastball pitcher.

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