The people have spoken and newcomer pitching prospect Khal Stephen is our No. 8 Cleveland Guardians prospect. Stephen won convincingly, earning 40% of the vote, beating out Juan Brito (24.3%), Jaison Chourio (12.9%) and Jace LaViolette (11.4%). He is making his CTC prospect list debut.
Stephen was a second round pick (No. 59 overall) by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Mississippi State.
He didn’t pitch the year he was drafted, but Toronto debuted him at full-season Single-A last year, where he shredded opposing hitters. Over the course of eight games (seven starts), Stephen posted a 2.06 ERA with a ridiculous 1.97 FIP over 39.1 innings while striking out a whopping 31.4% of hitters while walking just 4.6% of them.
This earned Stephen a promotion to High-A, where Stephen continued to dominate. He dropped his ERA to a miniscule 1.49 while retaining an elite 2.70 FIP and an absolutely redonkulous 0.85 WHIP over nine starts spanning 48.1 innings. Despite the quick promotion, Stephen was named the Northwest League Pitcher of the Month for June
Stephen was promoted to Double-A, making one start and immediately being placed on the injured list with a shoulder impingement following his first start there. One week later, he was traded to Cleveland in a one-for-one deal for former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. Stephen was activated three weeks later and made four starts with Double-A Akron. Three of the starts were spectacular, allowing one run in 4.0 innings twice and tossing 3.0 scoreless innings once. Unfortunately, one of those starts was a disaster, allowing six earned runs in 0.1 innings, which inflated his numbers at the level before the season ended.
Stephen possesses excellent control, striking out 110 batters versus 20 walks across three levels in 2025. He sits in the low to mid 90s and touches 96 with his fastball and every one of his pitches have the potential to be plus. I could easily see him being a mid-rotation starter for Cleveland for years to come if he stays healthy. Look for Stephen to begin 2026 repeating at Double-A, but if performs well, he could be promoted quickly and could make his MLB debut at some point this summer or fall if he continues to impress.
Now, it’s time to determine who is number nine in the Guardians’ loaded farm system! Your options are below:
Was lined up to make his MLB debut in 2025, but multiple injuries prevented the switch-hitter from getting his opportunity and it’s possible he could be passed up completely.
Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.
Chourio was lining up to be Cleveland’s top prospect after a sensational 2024, but he was slowed in 2025 by a nagging shoulder injury and had a very average season. He’s looking to bounce back in 2026.
Acquired from Pittsburghin the Spencer Horwitz trade, Hartle was one of Cleveland’s most successful starting pitchers in its minor league system in 2025. Stands 6-foot-6, but doesn’t have a ton of velocity.
Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.
One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.
Acquired in the Josh Bell trade, Watson had his best season in 2025 after switching to the outfield from shortstop. Possesses a unique blend of speed and power mixed with great athleticism.
At the big league level, he was roughed up for 14 R (13 ER) in just 6.0 IP, with a trio of long balls yielded – and walked more (8) than he struck out (7). Down at AAA Louisville, he was tagged for 91 R (80 ER) in just 112.2 IP, his 102/58 K/BB far from anything worth writing home about.
Still, there’s a ton there to like. He’s a guy who has thrown as hard as 101 mph in his career, and he has a full five-pitch mix when things are going well. Over at Reds Minor Leagues, Doug Gray even openly wondered if a mid-season alteration to how he used that mix was behind some of his late season struggles, and that will certainly be something to watch with Derek Johnson as Petty revvs up for the 2026 season down in Goodyear, Arizona.
Petty also doesn’t turn 23 until shortly after the season begins, and there’s still ample time for development from him if he can rediscover the kind of consistency needed to be a big league starter. And if that doesn’t pan out, he’s still got the kind of arm that could make him follow the path of, say, Connor Phillips to the back of the bullpen.
Petty checks in 9th in this year’s CPR, and did so with a pretty overwhelming portion of the vote this round.
Acquired in return for Danny Jansen at the 2025 trade deadline, Arienamo was promoted straight to Double-A by the Rays, and his success at that level carried over into the Venezuealan winter league, where his 1.112 OPS and 13 HR were each the second highest marks in the league and earned him the ROY award. He’s considered to have a high baseball IQ, strong motor, excellent bat control, and defensive flexibility, any one of which could earn him an entertaining major league debut.
A sixth rounder from 2023, Nichols entered the Rays organization with low mileage and control issues, a match made in development heaven. Fast forward to 2025, and his 68% strike percentage ranked 10th best among all minor league pitchers with 100 innings, according to Baseball America. His breaking ball is a big fish in a little pond thanks to its two-plane movement. By my eye, he has a mid-90’s dead zone-ish fastball with easy, over the top heat, and a classic but inconsistent change up. Despite all his gains in control it’s his command that might hold him back, but he fills the zone and might be able to eat innings, which is enough for a back end starter floor. If you’re buying stock, he’s Kimberly-Clark.
Rank
Player
Position
Votes
Total
Percentage
Last Season
1
Carson Williams
SS
14
25
56%
1
2
Brody Hopkins
RHP
19
25
76%
8
3
Jacob Melton
OF
14
28
50%
N/A
4
Theo Gillen
OF
14
26
54%
13
5
Ty Johnson
RHP
12
25
48%
15
6
Daniel Pierce
SS
13
23
57%
N/A
7
Jadher Areinamo
INF
15
28
54%
N/A
8
TJ Nichols
RHP
13
28
46%
N/R
The runoff between Areinamo and Nichols was well rewarded with a very close vote. There seems to be an open question if Areinamo’s ceiling justifies his ranking, but in my view the floor is on par with what many Top-100 prospects eventually deliver, which leads us to where we are today. The next round adds two pitchers: Harrison and Urbina.
Candidates
Caden Bodine, C 22 | S/R| 5’10” | 200 A (BAL) | .326/.408/.349 (133 wRC+) 49 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 5 BB, 8 K
Drafted 30th overall in 2025, Bodine was acquired in the Shane Baz trade. He profiles as a relatively safe prospect thanks to 60 grade bat-to-ball skills, and comfortably-plus blocking and receiving behind the plate. There is some concern that his smaller frame limits him to fringe power, but those concerns are off-set by solid plate discipline from both sides of the plate; his sweeter swing is left handed. All catching prospects will see their value proposition shift with the challenge system, but his defensive actions, leadership, and receiving give him real value, projecting him as a solid major league contributor.
Acquired in the Brandon Lowe trade, Brito has three plus pitches with a fastball that touches 100 with cut-ride, and two breakers in a mid-80s curveball with surprising depth and a mid-80s slider he commands best. He also mixes in a developing low-90s cutter and a scattershot but intriguing mid-80s changeup with strong velocity and movement separation, with some added deception from his smaller frame helping limit hard contact. The concern is control, as he’s posted below-average strike rates in A-ball across 2024–25 and lacks consistent feel outside the slider, leaving him to project as a slightly wild, high-leverage reliever for now. Still, with multiple plus pitches, improved durability, and meaningful command gains, he has mid-rotation starter upside, giving him possibly the widest range of outcomes on this list. Baseball Prospectus describes him as having “Shohei Ohtani’s stuff with Johnny Cueto’s body.”
Slater de Brun, OF 18 | L/L | 5’10” | 187
Drafted 37th overall in 2025, through a draft pick traded by the Rays, de Brun was essentially re-acquired in the Shane Baz trade. Like many Rays outfield prospects he’s not expected to develop much power, but compensates with an ability to hit to all fields, and has the benefit of years to develop. His hit tool rates plus thanks to a quick, compact swing, and his double-plus speed elevates both his baserunning and range in center; he has a solid arm and can stick long term. The key to his development will be improving pitch selection to maximize his power potential. Despite not yet playing in a pro game, he’s a good bet to skip the complex league and debut in Charleston this season.
Michael Forret, RHP 22 | 6’3” | 190 A+ (BAL) | 1.51 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 59.2 IP (16 G, 15 GS), 33.5% K, 7.5% BB AA (BAL) | 1.88 ERA, 2.03 FIP, 14.1 IP (3 GS), 15 K, 3 BB
A product of the State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota (formerly Manatee Junior College), Forret was a well above slot ($450k) 14th round draft choice in 2023 and arrives via the Shane Baz trade. Despite missing some time to a back injury in 2025, his array of fastballs and breaking balls already look major league ready. He seems adept at trying new things, as he picked up a whiff-worthy kick change in 2024, and is already tinkering with a Rays-like sweeper, both through his offseason program at Tread Athletics. He has a low release point (below 6 feet) but a rising fastball, and has — to quote Eric Longenhagen — “sensational feel.” Forret pitches with efficiency and variety, and could climb the ladder quickly in 2026.
Harrison entered the season as Baseball America’s top pitcher in the system thanks to a cleaned up delivery and high heat. He ran into some bumps in the road by running up his pitch count against batters, but he still made it over 100 innings in 22 starts. A power pitcher through and through, his hard slider flirts with cutter classification and could evolve into two distinct pitches down the road. It will be interesting to see how his change up plays as he’s challenged at higher levels, but for now he has premium stuff and the upside of a rotation anchor. (video)
Isaac had his season cut short large-in-part due to the discovery of a brain tumor, disrupting an otherwise great start to the season that duplicated his cup of coffee in Double-A as a 20-year old, despite some minor arm injuries along the way. He has the best power projection in the system, and if he can hold his own for a full season in 2026 — particularly against southpaws, which is somewhat of a concern — the former first round pick (29th overall, 2021) could see his status restored near the top of the Rays prospect rankings.
Morgan continued to hit without power in 2025, a great discouragement for some evaluators, but his present 50-grade hit tool and feel for the zone allow a major league projection. He continued his improved, quieter two-strike approach in 2025 that built on his success retooling his swing in the AFL last year. The Rays gave Morgan 14 starts in Left Field last season, and Baseball America called the defense “playable,” but his value is tied to his plus-plus defense at First.
Santiago Suarez, RHP 21 | 6’2” | ? A+ | 2.88 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 40.2 IP (10 GS), 26.9% K, 3.6% BB AAA | 5 ER (9 H, 2 BB, 3 HR) 11.0 IP (2 GS), 9 K
Suarez climbed the ladder to Triple-A to finish a short season, as some triceps/shoulder issues hampered his 2025, but when called upon this Venezuelan strike-thrower has earned the trust of his managers to go out there and pitch. He has two plus fastballs, with easy heat but average ride on the 4-seam, and a hard cutter with tight bite. His only complimentary pitch thus far is a 12-6 curve, which makes it a fairly vertical arsenal. He gets good extension, although I’d be remiss to not mention the double pump in his plant leg that on first glance looks like noise, but has led to evident repeatability. What Suarez boasts in control he might lack in command. Right now it’s a supinator’s profile with an average arm slot. To progress he either needs to add some east-west depth to his arsenal (à la Chris Bassitt), or find ways to unlock the spin rates a touch more (Shane Baz). I’d expect him to slot into Montgomery’s rotation as one of the younger starters for his level.
Brendan Summerhill, OF 22 | L/R | 6’3” | 200 A | .333/.429/.444 (160 wRC+) 42 PA, 0 HR, 5 SB, 6 BB, 5 K
Following an All-Star performance at the Cape Cod summer league, Summerhill exhibited some of the best bat-to-ball skills in NCAA as a junior at Arizona. His draft stock took a minor hit due to injury (broken hand from from punching a cooler) and was drafted 42nd overall, but Summerhill rebounded well with a dominant stop at Charleston to finish the year. Summerhill has plus barrel control, allowing for a high-contact approach for his long swing. He has plus speed as well, which provides a chance to stick in center. Evaluators would like to see more power to complete a five-tool profile. Even if the power doesn’t materialize, it’s an above average contributor’s projection.
Jose Urbina, RHP 20 | 6’3” | 180 A | 2.05 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 92.1 IP (19 GS), 26.4% K, 8.2% BB A+ | 2 ER (2 HR), 4.0 IP (1 GS), 5 K, 0 BB
Good pitchers grow and adjust, and Urbina has done that consistently at an age young for his level. Physically he has grown in strength, sitting at 96 with the fastball after flashing high octane in 2024, and technically he has grown, refining his dialed up slider and his two-plane curveball into complementary pitches — which lack plus command but are thrown with feel. He shouldered a starter’s workload at 19, and was awarded one additional start at High-A, where he allowed two solo shots and struck out five. Overall, the age, body, and body of work have him on the trajectory of top prospect lists in the near future.
Jake Cronenworth has been talked about as a potential trade piece for the past couple of seasons. He has value in that he can play multiple positions and is steady at the plate. For now, Cronenworth is projected to be the second baseman for the San Diego Padres on opening day although that could change in the coming weeks. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at Cronenworth and what he can bring to the 2026 team as part of his ongoing Padres roster review.
Baseball America just announced their top 100 prospects in baseball heading into the 2026 season. Let’s take a look at which Brewers prospects made the cut:
4. SS Jesus Made
I’ve written about Made a lot over the last year (and this offseason), so there isn’t a lot to say about him that hasn’t already been said. BA considers him a 70-grade (!) prospect with average risk, but nothing he’s shown so far has indicated that he won’t be able to adjust as he continues to rise through the minor league system.
Made is pretty much the complete package at the plate, showing above-average speed, power, and contact throughout three different levels of minor league ball. He may not stick at shortstop long-term, but that’s mainly due to Cooper Pratt’s presence as opposed to any inherent defensive deficiency. He made some errors over the course of the year, but his defense improved significantly — he projects to be, at the very least, a slightly-above-average defender.
After a hot start with Low-A Carolina in 2025, Made earned a mid-season promotion and hit even better (.915 OPS) before being promoted again — just in time for the Double-A playoffs. If he keeps improving (he should), he’ll be knocking on the door of the Brewers’ clubhouse in no time. He’s the best prospect Milwaukee has had since Jackson Chourio and should be very fun to watch in a Brewers uniform someday.
47. SS/2B Luis Peña
Peña has just as high of an offensive ceiling as Made despite questions surrounding his plate discipline and long-term defensive abilities. He’s an “athletic, aggressive hitter who tracks pitches well with excellent hand-eye coordination.” He also doesn’t strike out all that much (8.2% in 2025) despite often swinging at pitches that maybe he shouldn’t. Peña frequently posts high-level exit velocities (up to 106 mph), although his swing is geared toward top-spin line drives — meaning that his home run numbers (1 HR in 2025) are somewhat lacking despite having tons of raw power.
Peña’s ranking, per BA, is honestly quite a bit lower than I thought it would be. Peña got promoted to High-A alongside Made, but while Made improved on his Low-A stats, Peña faltered a bit (.844 OPS with Carolina, .517 over 101 at-bats with Wisconsin). He’ll need to show improvement on his numbers to justify ranking him this high, but if he starts the season off hot, he’ll probably rise significantly up BA’s rankings.
50. SS Cooper Pratt
Out of the three shortstops at the top of the Brewers’ farm system, Pratt is the best defensive prospect. I’ve said it before, but I genuinely think he’d be an above-average shortstop at the major league level in 2026. I absolutely love his defensive game. He gets to balls a lot of other shortstops don’t get to and doesn’t make many mistakes.
The bat is still a work in progress, although Pratt shows traits that hint at his bat developing further. Per BA, swing is simple, balanced and stays short to the ball for a 6-foot-3 hitter. Pratt will expand the strike zone a touch more often than he should, particularly against sliders down and away, but he has a good sense of timing with the hand-eye coordination that leads to a low swing-and-miss rate.“ For what it’s worth, scouts don’t think he’ll develop much power due to his low top-end exit velocities and lack of bat speed. Still, if he develops as hoped, a defensive wizard shortstop who can hit for average is a highly valuable player.
71. SS/2B/OF Jett Williams
Williams and his former teammate in the Mets organization, Brandon Sproat, deserve their own article once I have the time to watch some film. For now:
There was a reason many Mets fans are disappointed that Williams, the No. 14 overall pick back in 2022, was part of the return for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers. He could be very good, very soon. His best traits at the plate are his on base ability and swing decisions, both of which sound very Brewers. Unlike most recent Brewers acquisitions, he comes with a ton of accolades. Williams was BA’s No. 1 overall Mets prospect coming into last season. Also according to BA, Williams was the best baserunner and had the strongest infield arm in the Mets organization. After the 2025 season, Williams was named the Eastern League’s top Major League prospect.
Williams also boasts significant power (17 home runs in 130 combined games last year) and should be able to hit for power at the next level, despite his diminutive stature (5’6”). Williams’ final standout trait is his versatility — while he’s mostly played shortstop as a member of the Mets organization, he’s notched at least 33 career starts at both second base and center field.
Williams had an .868 OPS in 96 games for the Mets’ Double-A affiliate last year. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, his OPS dropped a little bit (.718 OPS in 36 games), but I’d bet on his numbers bouncing back up somewhere closer to where they were in Double-A once he spends significant time at that level. It doesn’t hurt that the Brewers front office clearly thinks he could be someone (remember Caleb Durbin…).
81. RHP Brandon Sproat
Sproat, the other player that the Brewers got in return for Peralta and Myers, is going to fit in great with the Brewers’ “pitching lab.” Fun fact about the 25-year-old righty — the Mets actually drafted him twice, selecting him in the third round in 2022 and second round in 2023. He more than lived up to that draft capital through Double-A, but eventually hit a bit of a wall in Triple-A. Through his first 22 starts in Triple-A, Sproat posted an abysmal 6.45 ERA. His last 11 starts, however? A 2.44 ERA and 30% (!!) strikeout rate. He was called up in September and made four starts with the Mets before the end of the season, with varying results.
While he’s not quite as highly ranked of a prospect as Williams, he’s a legitimate talent. Sproat only posted a 4.24 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) at Triple-A Syracuse last season, but the underlying peripherals — 113 strikeouts in 121 innings pitched, .218 opponent batting average — point to a pitcher who could find success in the big leagues. Per BA, his standout traits are his control (“good enough to start” in the majors) and his breaking balls, which “stand out.” Sproat threw his mid-80s sweeper and high-70s curveball about a third of the time in his MLB debut and leaned on them as putaway pitches. He also throws a harder slider. Sproat’s sinker sits 94-96 mph, but despite that velocity, it operates as a groundball or set-up pitch rather than a whiff pitch.
96. RHP Logan Henderson
Most of you saw Henderson in his stint with the Brewers last year, a stint that was cut short due to right elbow inflammation. Despite the injury, the promise that he showed in 25 1/3 IP (1.78 ERA) with Milwaukee was enough to land him on BA’s Top 100. Henderson isn’t going to blow anyone away, but he’s a smart pitcher who gets good movement on his pitches. His standout pitch is his 80-ish mph “Nintendo pitch” changeup, which played off his fastball effectively both in Triple-A and in the majors. It’s fair to wonder whether he’ll have the same level of success once major league teams get a full year of film on him, and he certainly (almost certainly?) won’t post an ERA under 2.00 next year.
Still, Milwaukee trading Peralta and Myers shows that they have confidence in their pitching depth heading into 2026, and Henderson looks to be a significant part of the Brewers’ rotation plans for 2026. He won’t be on this list next year.
When it comes to the starting rotation, the Orioles’ 40-man roster currently includes these names: Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin.
True to GM Mike Elias’s promises, the Orioles have been beefing up the offense with some new bats, notably the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso himself. They even added a new starter in Baz, acquired from Tampa for a hefty passel of prospects. But if 2026 is to go well, the Orioles need to complement their rebooted offense with a return-to-form from one or more of Povich, Kremer, and Young, plus a successful return-from-injury from Baz, Bradish, Wells, and certainly, Zach Eflin.
You may recall that the Orioles acquired Eflin from the Rays in July 2024. He joined a rotation helmed by Corbin Burnes, but suffering from the loss, due to injury, of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Grayson Rodriguez. Eflin was really good down the stretch, exceeding expectations with a 5-2 record, 2.60 ERA, and 149 ERA+ over nine starts. The Orioles fell flat in the playoffs, but it was hardly his fault.
Eflin’s dominance, paired with the loss of free agent Burnes, made him the clear choice to be Baltimore’s Opening Day starter in 2025. He make that start, but then things quickly went sideways.
Eflin struggled to stay healthy last year (he wasn’t the only one). After just three starts, the righty went down with a right lat strain on April 9. He returned a month later but couldn’t find a groove. By mid-May, this team was in freefall, and a healthy Eflin could have provided a stabilizing presence for the roster. Instead, he hit the IL again on June 30 with lower back discomfort. It’d prove his last start of 2025, as he eventually underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy in August.
All in all, Eflin would do four stints on the IL while pitching to a 5.93 ERA in just fourteen starts.
As a pending free agent, Eflin could have been a trade chip in a season going nowhere. Instead, injuries prevented the Birds from flipping the starter for any value, and he elected free agency at season’s end. Though it wasn’t clear whether a reunion was in the cards, on December 29, the Orioles announced they were bringing him back on a one-year, $10 million deal, with a mutual option for 2027.
In a December Zoom call with the media, Eflin spoke candidly about his back issues. The injury, he explained, dated back roughly a decade, but last year it had progressively worsened, and it was the first time he couldn’t manage it at all. Surgeons discovered a bone spur pressing into a nerve—which explained the shooting pains Eflin had been dealing with. And unlike a Tommy John recovery, which can take fourteen-to-eighteen months, Eflin said he felt immediate relief after the operation, and now says he’s now in the best physical condition of his life. His first bullpen was scheduled for January 6 and his goal is to be ready for Opening Day.
So what to expect from this new-and-improved Zach Eflin?
The pessimist’s version: A guy who’s started more than 25 games only three of ten seasons in his career and who just posted a 5.93 ERA in an injury-shortened season.
The optimist’s version: The guy we saw in 2023 with Tampa Bay, when he went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA, led the American League in wins, and finished sixth in Cy Young voting. That season, his first in Tampa, Eflin set career highs in starts (31), innings (177.2), and strikeouts (186), while posting career-best marks in ERA and WHIP (1.02). Then he outdid himself the next year!
I think the bet here is reasonable, although a one-year deal certainly suggests caution by the front office. If the back pain really was a substantial part of why Eflin had an ERA near 6 for the 2025 season—his time missed strongly suggests it was—and it was corrected by a reasonably simple surgery, then there’s a plausible story where 2026 looks for him a lot more like 2023.
Plus the Orioles don’t need Eflin to be their ace this time around. Bradish, Rogers, and Baz should occupy the top spots. Guys like Eflin, Wells, and Kremer can fill out the rotation. In that role, the pressure is lower. A healthy Eflin as your No. 4 starter? Teams would kill for that.
This doesn’t mean the Orioles should stop looking for pitching. They shouldn’t. Free agents like Framber Valdez would obviously upgrade the rotation. But a healthy and effective Eflin represents a scenario where the Orioles might not need to make a splashy signing to have a good rotation. If he bounces back, if Bradish returns well from Tommy John, if Baz fulfills his potential—that’s a rotation that can compete in October. The margin for error is thin, but it exists.
Eflin himself seems to understand the stakes. “[I didn’t want] to be the guy they traded for and get hurt and not be the guy that they wanted,” he said. “That really weighed on me.” He wants to prove something. He’s motivated. And for the first time in years, he’s pain-free.
Championship windows don’t stay open indefinitely. “We want to win the World Series,” says Eflin. The Orioles know this; it’s why they signed Alonso, traded for Ward and Baz, brought in Ryan Helsley, and resigned their No. 4 starter. A bounce-back Zach Eflin might be one of the quieter pieces of this puzzle, but he could end up being one of the most important.
Happy Friday everyone! We’re light on Tigers news, but there are still some big baseball stories to check in on. The Hall of Fame inductees were announced this week, and Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones will be heading to Cooperstown. We also check in on Matt Vierling, plus a big move for the White Sox, and some major trades involving starting pitchers (but thankfully none of them named Tarik Skubal).
Carlos Beltrán is the first player drafted out of Puerto Rico to be elected to the Hall of Fame — the first five Puerto Rican Hall of Famers were all signed as free agents before Puerto Rico was incorporated into MLB's amateur draft in 1989.
Last time, we took a look at starting pitcher projections for ERA. We will do the same here for relief pitchers. Obviously, there is a ton to get into here and before we dive in we need to talk about some issues that come up with all pitchers. Certainly, hitting and pitching is partially reliant on luck. Over the last decade, there have been exciting advancements in data primarily from a company called Statcast. They essentially can pinpoint exit velocities on batted balls and therefore can better predict trends in performance.
Chuck Palahniuk (the author of “Fight Club”) wrote one of my favorite lines in literature: “on a long enough timeline, the survival rate drops to zero.” Generally speaking the more data we receive the more reliable that data is going to be. We can predict outcomes and the underlying data (like Statcast) will match the manifesting data. In other words, pitchers that miss bats and induce weak contact will perform better than pitchers that don’t.
However, when you condense a 200 inning season into a 50 inning season, there are fewer opportunities for the data to normalize itself. This is why we often see wide variations from one season to the next for relief pitchers. They themselves are likely not radically different. They are getting different results because when sample sizes are smaller, there is more variance with luck.
This has two immediate implications for us today. First, the idea of giving a relief pitcher a multiyear contract is a risky proposition because of this variance. That’s why we don’t see them very often and it is much rarer for teams to get consistent bang for their buck. Secondly, the ERA predictions will seem higher for some players than what is likely to happen. When we go with batted ball statistics we tend to see a narrowing in projections across different pitchers because we cannot predict good or bad luck. For starting pitchers, that usually is not as big an issue. For relievers we will see wider variation in these numbers when the season ends.
The Numbers
Steamer
ATC
The Bat
OOPSY
B-Ref
Aggregate
Josh Hader
3.29
3.25
3.39
3.00
3.41
3.27
Bryan Abreu
3.24
3.20
3.65
3.07
3.18
3.27
Bryan King
3.72
3.63
3.65
3.70
3.48
3.64
Bennett Sousa
3.60
3.66
3.96
3.43
3.78
3.69
Steven Okert
3.99
4.01
4.07
3.61
4.02
3.94
AJ Blubaugh
4.35
4.29
4.02
4.36
3.35
4.07
Miguel Ullola
4.18
4.15
3.72
4.45
——-
4.13
Jayden Murray
4.61
4.39
4.22
4.22
3.86
4.26
Enyel de Los Santos
4.27
4.42
4.82
4.26
4.36
4.43
J.P. France
4.38
4.45
4.82
4.91
4.34
4.58
Roddery Munoz
4.48
4.76
4.94
4.39
5.12
4.74
Just like with the starters, we have more relievers than spots. MLB rules dictate that you can only have 13 pitchers on your ML roster. If the Astros go with a six man rotation then that means only spots for seven relievers. Naturally, at least one of those starters would probably double as a long reliever. However, there are eleven names here and all of them have unique situations as it pertains to options and status. For instance, Munoz looks like the worst candidate, but he was a Rule V draft choice, so he would need to remain on the roster or be sent back.
You will also notice that four of the top five relievers are lefties (in bold and italics). That creates some interesting roster construction issues as the Astros will need to prioritize right handed middle relief if they are to make any changes to the staff. Most organizations have only two lefties in their pen, so the Astros appear to be dealing from a position of strength. It is certainly possible for one or more of them to be dealt in a theoretical deal to add to other parts of the roster.
Roster Flexibility
As we noted in the last piece, Nate Pearson was projected as a reliever, but the Astros have labeled him as a candidate for the rotation. Similarly, Miguel Ullola and AJ Blubaugh were starters in the minors, so they could easily serve in that capacity. We also should note that JP France was a prominent start on the 2023 club before arm injuries limited him. He could also return to the rotation in Sugar Land to provide more depth in case of injuries.
As much as we would like to see the very best 26 guys on the final roster, teams often have to make difficult decisions at the end of the rotation and bullpen. As previously mentioned, Munoz has to make the final roster or be sent back. If they feel he is reasonably close in quality to a player with options then those players with options will likely be optioned back to Sugar Land. Teams use err on the side of keeping as many of their guys as they possibly can.
Fans and analysts also often forget the fourth dimension: time. Just because someone starts in AAA doesn’t mean they will end up there. Sometimes players need a little seasoning before coming up or they need to wait for a logjam to clear itself. We saw that with the rotation last season as there were even a couple of rotation arms I left off of the final list. Odds are pretty good that every name above will see some time at the big league level.
Future Considerations
I mentioned the reluctance to sign players to multi-year contracts. That will be put to the test following the season when Bryan Abreu becomes a free agent. Abreu is the only relief pitcher in baseball with 100 or more strikeouts in each of the last three seasons. He has averaged nearly 100 a season for the last four years. Add in a fifth season this year and there will be a ton of pressure to sign him to a Rafael Montero like deal.
However, we should note what happened with Montero. Obviously, Abreu has a longer track record of success than Montero did, but the question remains. How long will he be able to hold up this level of performance? Some team will likely offer him closer money and it is hard to imagine paying two players closer money. So, a large part of the season will be trying to find that guy that can eventually become the 8th inning guy when Abreu walks in free agency.
I hesitate to suggest it because the names above are generally unproven, but the Astros might consider moving him before the deadline. If they do not foresee re-signing him then it makes sense to consider getting something long-term to help your team. However, leaving your team without an effective 8th inning reliever is not conducive to contending, so the Astros will need to either be out of the race or have someone that can immediately take his place.
The Atlanta Braves snuck this through the transaction wire earlier this week, but the team has brought back utility player/pitcher Luke Williams on a minor league deal. The moved happened the same day the team announced that Ha-Seong Kim will be lost for most of the first half of the regular seasons. The move to bring back Williams – who the Braves listed as a shortstop on their transaction – was speculated in the linked article.
While the Braves signed Jorge Mateo mid-week as a back-up shortstop option behind now presumed starter Mauricio Dubon, that doesn’t mean that Williams doesn’t have a path to a big-league roster spot at some point during the season.
As it stands now, the Braves do have one open position player spot on the 26-man roster. The addition of right-handed power-hitting reserve of some kind – Justin Turner, Gary Sanchez, maybe even Marcell Ozuna – seems like a more valuable addition to the roster than Williams.
Williams is not a good hitter. Full stop. He had a 0 (zero) wRC+ last year and for his career has a 63 wRC+. But, he is a good and versatile defender who can play in the middle infield and outfield. He is also a good base runner, making him an often-used pinch-runner option during his 221 games with Atlanta going back to 2023.
Here’s the punch-line to the joke that isn’t really a joke. Williams is also a useful pitcher. As a position player, he has pitched in 10 career games – including nine over the past two seasons with Atlanta.
In 2025, he made six appearances, tossing six innings and striking out four while allowing only two earned runs. His career WHIP is 1.18 with an xERA of 4.25 against an actual ERA of 3.27. His FIP and xFIP aren’t as good but this is a position player, not an actual full-time pitcher. Last year, if not for his own injury, he likely would have pitched in at least two more games.
Williams is-what-he-is. A player who can be useful as the 26th an on a roster where his positive attributes can be utilized if the other position players are going to see the majority of the playing time during the season. This has been something he has been able to do the last couple of season with Atlanta.
Is there a chance he is nothing more but break-in-case-of-emergency depth at Triple-A this season? Absolutely, and hopefully so. But don’t be surprised if Williams doesn’t appear with Atlanta at some point this season.
Dundee head coach Steven Pressley believes there are similarities between the progress Rangers have made under Danny Rohl and that of his own side over the past few months.
The teams meet at Ibrox in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday aiming to continue strong form.
Rohl, having replaced Russell Martin in October, has Rangers on a seven-game winning run while Dundee have four victories in their past five fixtures.
"Rangers' situation on a greater scale is similar to our own," said Pressley.
"Danny went in there, they became a little bit more pragmatic, they addressed some of the outstanding issues like their vulnerability from set-plays and now that is a real strength.
"I think once you start taking small steps and seeing the results from that, a confidence grows within the team and just organically things improve. I think Rangers, it is a bit like our own journey.
"So very similar but a really good Rangers team just now."
Dundee drew 1-1 at Ibrox last August during Martin's calamitous Rangers tenure.
"Any time you go to Ibrox it is a really big challenge for ourselves," added Pressley.
"But to face a Rangers team that are on the back of six [now seven] straight wins, five of those in the league, that are growing in confidence, have a lot of momentum and have just recruited a number of very talented players makes the job in hand very difficult.
"But equally we go there with a little bit of form ourselves so it is a game we are excited about. Like we did the last time we went there, we need everything to go right and if that happens you never know."
While Dundee are deservedly getting plenty of plaudits, Pressley is keeping his feet on the ground.
"There are so many other aspects that we still need to improve around the club and in our own performance," he said.
"That is what excites me, we are making progress but a lot more to come."
This has ramifications for the Red Sox on a few fronts: First, the deal for Bellinger again verifies the price for free agent outfielders remains astronomically high. Second, the Yankees retained another piece of their 2025 outfield that hit a combined 112 home runs (it’s a good thing the Sox have a bunch of high ceiling lefty pitchers if they need to go in there next fall). And lastly, the Mets are becoming a less ideal trade candidate as they continue to clear out interesting young players and also traded for Luis Robert earlier in the week.
So where do the Red Sox go from here?
Couple the Bellinger money with the $240 million Kyle Tucker got from the Dodgers last week, and in theory, the Red Sox should be sitting pretty with their surplus of outfielders. But my guess is, and this is purely a guess, Craig Breslow and the front office are not finding a certain left handed starting major league outfielder valued as high on the trade market as he probably would be if he was a free agent. Thus, the hold up.
If this is the case, it puts them in a difficult spot. They can either trade for 80 cents on the dollar and get a badly needed infield piece that works for this roster right now, or they can hold out until their demands are met. Unfortunately, the problem with holding out is you might be left without a dancing partner, and looking at the landscape after this Mets’ deals this week, the herd is thinning.
We’re much closer to the start of spring training than we are to the end of the 2025 season, and the enormous log jam across the outfield and DH positions still hasn’t been addressed. The Red Sox roster remains stacked with Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran as headliners in the outfield. Then there’s Kristian Campbell, who may need to ultimately end up out there. And the club still hasn’t sorted out how Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas, who seem destined to battle for their share of DH at bats, fit into the equation.
Conventional wisdom says a trade partner must be found soon to clear out this mess and address the infield hole, but conventional wisdom has been screaming into the void on this topic for months without a response. Making matters murkier is the unfortunate darkness surrounding any details when it comes trade rumors in modern MLB. We typically have no clue how these things progress until Jeff Passan drops a tweet with the final product. As a result, we don’t know the structure of any proposed deals, making it hard to evaluate whether Craig Breslow and company are valuing players too high, or if the rest of the league is refusing to play ball at a fair price.
For now, we remain stuck waiting in winter’s cold darkness.
For the second consecutive year and for the fourth time since 2022, Shohei Ohtani was named as the best player in baseball by MLB Network entering the 2026 season. Ohtani beat out Aaron Judge for a second consecutive year, with Bobby Witt Jr. once again placing third behind the pair of two-time reigning MVPs.
Ohtani has had arguably the best start to his Dodgers tenure over his first two seasons, as he won the NL MVP in both 2024 and 2025 while helping the Dodgers become the first repeat champions in 25 years. He became the first Dodger to hit 50 home runs in a season in 2024 (finishing with 54) and outdid himself this past season with a new franchise single-season home run record of 55. Not to mention the fact that he became the founding member of the 50-50 club, a feat that no other player has come close to achieving thus far.
Ohtani was named the best player in baseball following the 2021 and 2022 season, but finished as runner-up to Ronald Acuña Jr. following the 2023 season after the latter posted the first 40-70 season in baseball history. Three other Dodgers finished in the top-20 of MLB Network’s list, with Will Smith ranked at no. 20, Mookie Betts at no. 18 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto at no. 13. Both Freddie Freeman and Kyle Tucker placed just outside the top-20, coming in at no. 22 and 21 respectively.
Links
Dylan Hernandez and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (soon to be with the California Post) appeared on The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman to discuss the Dodgers offseason. During the episode, the four discussed the enigmatic Ohtani and how it’s been a challenge to understand what he is like as a person and off the field.
Per Hernandez: “In all this time that I’ve known [Ohtani], I’ve never had a human-to-human conversation with him— it’s always been athlete-to-reporter. That’s very rare… He’s a complete mystery. I’ve never seen anybody quite like this.”
Jayson Stark of The Athletic provides a sneak peak into the 2027 Hall of Fame class, with notable names such as Buster Posey and Jon Lester entering their first year of eligibility. Chase Utley, who finished with 59.1 percent of votes on the 2026 ballot, still has a long ways to go, but Stark argues that Utley’s career hit total could give him a compelling case considering Posey, a three-time champion and the 2012 NL MVP, retired with 1500 hits to his name.
It’s a big leap from 59.1 percent to 75 percent, so 2027 might be a longshot for election. But if Posey is about to get elected with only 1,500 hits, Utley’s 1,855 won’t feel like much of an obstacle anymore.
After the mostly-promising but late-season collapse of 20222024 1984, the Minnesota Twins sagged to 77-85 in 1985. Things got worse in ‘86: 71-91, 6th in the AL West—21 GB the West-winning California Angels. The average draw of 15,000 per Metrodome contest—2nd-worst in AL attendance coffers—presented a lot of bad baseball for Bob Kurtz & Harmon Killebrew (on TV) and Herb Carneal & Joe Angel (on the dial) to cover, but also some signs that pieces were falling into place for a promising future.
Pitching (90 ERA+)
With the exception of ever-stalwart Bert Blyleven (17-14, 271.2 IP, 107 ERA+)—who even still gave up an MLB-record 50 home runs—and up-and-coming Frank Viola (16-13, 245.2 IP, 95 ERA+), pitching was this club’s Achilles heel.
Mike Smithson, Neal Heaton, & Mark Portugal were far worse than Rik Aalbert & Frankie out of the starting rotation. The pen at least had solid seasons from Keith Atherton (114 ERA+) & Roy Lee Jackson (111 ERA+)—but for some unknown reason still gave Ron Davis 38.2 IP, which of course netted a 47 ERA+. John Butcher (70 IP, 68 ERA+) wasn’t much more effective.
Offense (103 OPS+)
The quintet of Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti, Tom Brunansky, & Roy Smalley all eclipsed 20 dingers, cultivating the Homer Dome reputation.
Especially stand-out were Puck (5.7 WAR, 223 H, 119 R, 37 2B, 31 HR, 96 RBI, 20 SB, .328 BA, 142 OPS+, Gold Glove) & the G-Man (5.8 WAR, 34 2B, 34 HR, 108 RBI, .287 BA, 131 OPS+, Gold Glove).
The most memorable moments from ‘86…
May 30: Smalley homers from both sides of the plate
Puck representing MN at the All-Star game in the Astrodome
August 1: Kirby hits for the cycle AND Blyleven records his 3,000th strikeout!
None of this was good enough to keep the Twins in contention—especially with a dispiriting 11 walk-off losses thrown into the mix. So in compiling a 59-80 record by September 12, manager Ray Miller was relieved of his duties after 1.93 seasons of top-step service. This led to the hiring of 36-year old skipper Tom Kelly—who presided over a 12-11 ‘86 denouement.
Of final note: The ‘86 Twins were horrific on the road—28-53. But at the Metrodome: 43-38.
The franchise was at a fulcrum: while seemingly set up with talent on the field, a new young manager, and an ability to dominate at home, two straight disappointing seasons after the promise of 1984 did not exactly inspire a ton of confidence for what 1987 would bring.
Happy Friday everyone, lots of fun little tidbits for you in our news of the day. We’ve got some more thoughts and discussion about the Hall of Fame inductees, including some bold sentiments from Carlos Beltran about why he doesn’t want to be defined by the Astros cheating scandal. Plus, two big starting pitcher trades see moves being made for the Rangers and Mets (of course, what aren’t the Mets doing these days?)
On the topic of starting pitchers, there’s also some Hall of Fame debate about whether or not they’re being snubbed by Cooperstown.
Carlos Beltrán is the first player drafted out of Puerto Rico to be elected to the Hall of Fame — the first five Puerto Rican Hall of Famers were all signed as free agents before Puerto Rico was incorporated into MLB's amateur draft in 1989.
