Category: Baseball

The Red Sox and Phillies have had similar starts to the season: they’re two big ballclubs with big aspirations who both immediately fell on their faces, prompting two managerial firings. And while the Phillies have done a better job righting the ship under their new skipper than the Sox have, they’ll both share some history tonight, as it’s the first time in 22 years that two teams with new managers will face off this early in the season. (Thomas Harrigan, MLB.com)

That’s not exactly the type of history teams generally want to make, so here’s some more, slightly better history. When the Sox rolled out five straight left-handed starters last week, it was the first time they had done so since 2018. They’ve also had more games started by rookies this year (14) than any other team and, for the most part, those rookie hurlers have come through. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Could the Sox have another lefty rookie pitcher a few years down the line who not only follows in the footsteps of Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, but does so as a local kid made good? With the 20th pick in next month’s MLB draft, the Sox could be in line to select Bishop Feehan’s Brody Bumila, a 6-9 lefty who already throws 100 MPH heat. (Hayden Bird, Boston.com)

The success of the rookie Red Sox pitchers points to a well-functioning minor league system. But that system received a shock with the Alex Cora firing and the subsequent coaching staff shuffle, and that hasn’t been easy for the organization to deal with. “There’s times when change happens and you kind of see it coming,” said Portland Sea Dogs coach Kyle Sasala. “None of us saw this coming. I woke up one day and was defensive coach. Next day, I was the manager.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Speaking of things no one sees coming, is Trevor Story poised to turn his season around? “It’s only a matter of time,” says the veteran shortstop. (Gabrielle Starr, Boston Herald)

As Story’s 2025 season reminds us, it’s helpful to have patience in baseball. But can we all be as patient as David Ortiz, who waited nearly 20 years to get revenge on Joe West for calling him ugly?

It was a while back when I posted something in the Feed asking for your hot takes for the rest of the Phillies season.

In the middle of a supremely cold streak is not usually the time to hope for optimism and joy, so naturally a lot of the responses were of the negative variety. Still, it was awesome that so many of you decided to partake, so let’s go through a few of them and talk about them.

In the weeks since the post was put up, Harper has hit .315/.415/.667 with five home runs, 14 runs batted in over 65 plate appearances. He is currently 11th in baseball with a 159 wRC+, 11th with a .405 wOBA, all while doing with so with a pedestrian .279 BABIP. The parameters for what makes one “elite” in the game today likely combine some offense and defense, an issue for a player like Harper that the defensive metrics mostly agree is having a down season to this point. Yet if there was someone on the team that I would consider affixing that label to, Harper is near the top of that list.

Nola? Well, I’m not sure a sub-3.50 ERA is near his future, but getting it under 4 at this point would be a feat unto itself. Crawford was never going to be an All-Star for the National League this season, let alone the starting option.

It’s the Aidan Miller part of this take that caught my eye. Trading him this season is likely off the table. First of all, he’s injured with a mysterious back injury, which torpedoes any value the team might think they could get back in a trade in the first place. Second, he’s still an important part of this team’s future once they are able to get him back onto the field. Without knowing what is going on specifically, it’s hard to determine what that future actually looks like. The team has been hesitant to say out loud what the specific injury is, citing potential HIPAA violations, which leads to speculation. That kind of speculation can be dangerous. Amongst the TGP writing staff, the name “David Wright” is getting bandied about, and not in the good sense. So while there is the theoretical idea that Miller could be moved for something at the trade deadline, the plain truth is that the team isn’t going to do that.

Woooo baby. It’s only fair to link the rest of the post here, too large for a single screenshot to take care of it, but I can also throw it in in another picture for you.

Now, let’s get down to brass tacks here.

Bryce Harper isn’t getting traded by the team. Not now, not ever. Do whatever it is you need to do to flag this, but he’s not going anywhere. Any trade idea that includes his name is just not worth the time. From the reasoning that was taken here, the idea was to do something that would shake up the clubhouse in the midst of a long losing streak, a streak that has since been broken with the assistance of Harper himself.

Now, to the broader idea of shaking up the clubhouse if the team does not advance far enough in the potential postseason, that’s still a viable idea. At some point, the front office is going to have to acknowledge that the group they have assembled needs a refresh, that new faces need to be included. Thus far, Crawford and Andrew Painter have added to that mix, but maybe they will see that something new is indeed necessary. Aidan Miller is theoretically ready to take over for Bohm, but the rest of the roster, as has been written over and over and over, really can’t go anywhere else. Their contracts have sort of anchored them to this team. Would it require creativity? Sure, but that’s why front offices are paid what they are paid.

Here’s another one.

Adolis Garcia.

Where to begin? Is he good or is he not good? Is he part of the team’s future, or is he part of the ever growing list of right fielders that are taking up the space for the Phillies? He’s been a godsend in the outfield for the team, particularly when compared the stone footed Nick Castellanos, but the bat has been lacking. There are some good under the hood things happening – getting his walk rate back in line, hitting the ball very hard – but it hasn’t resulted in extra base power that the team was hoping he’d find again. There is next to no chance the team moves away from him this season as there isn’t much of anything viable enough to replace him at the moment.

He’s just been….fine. Nothing more, nothing less. Do we wish there was improvement? Of course we do. We’re almost 200 plate appearances into the season though. Is that leap coming? Not quite sure that it is.

Who’s Hot At The Plate?

Xavier Neyens – Neyens, the Astros first round pick last year, put together another big week. In 5 games he hit .333 with one home run and an impressive 9 walks to just 3 strikeouts. Neyens has a .985 OPS this season so far.

Nehomar Ochoa – Ochoa is truly having a bounce back year. He had a monster week hitting .545 with 3 doubles, a home run and 4 runs batted in. Playing the best ball of his career, Ochoa is hitting .326 with a .906 OPS over 26 games.

Jason Schiavone – Schiavone has been on an absolute tear. After being on this list last week, he is here again. In six games in Asheville this week, Schiavone hit .400 with 2 doubles, 4 home runs and an OPS of 1.671. He has 15 home runs this season.

Ethan Frey – Frey was a favorite as a prospect who was going to fly up the system but he got off to a slow start. This was a strong week for him though as he hit .391 with 2 home runs, 6 runs batted in and drew 5 walks for Asheville.

Caden Powell– Powell also got off to a slow start but put together a monster week. In four games for Asheville, Powell hit .563 with a double, a home run and 5 runs batted in. Powell is hitting .277 through 24 games this season.

Kyle Walker – Walker also had a big week for Asheville. The 23-year-old played in five games last week and hit .389 with 3 doubles, a home run and 5 runs batted in. He’s hitting .293 through 22 games this season.

Who’s Hot On The Mound?

Ryan Verdugo – Verdugo was drafted in the 12th round of the 2024 draft, and the right-hander turned in his best pro outing this week. In his one start for the Woodpeckers, he tossed 5 no-hit innings while striking out 5 batters.

James Hicks – Hicks has been a bit up and down this year, but this week was a good outing for him. Hicks made one start for the Hooks and went 6 innings allowing 2 runs while striking out 6. He has a 4.55 ERA this season.

Javier Perez – Perez has been one of the best pitchers in the Astros system this season and this week he had a nice start for the Woodpeckers allowing 2 runs over 6 innings. Overall he has a 2.73 ERA with 35 K in 29.2 innings.

Luis Rodriguez – Rodriguez was acquired a couple of years ago in the Julks trade and has been a pleasant surprise. This week in his one outing for Asheville he went 5 innings allowing 2 runs with 4 strikeouts. He has 22 K in 21.2 innings.

TEAM ERA and OPS:

Sugar Land – From 3.84 ERA to 4.33 ERA – From .700 OPS to .708 OPS

Corpus Christi – From 4.48 ERA to 4.90 ERA – From .691 OPS to .703 OPS

Asheville – From 6.92 ERA to 7.75 ERA – From .719 OPS to .770 OPS

Fayetteville – From 5.06 ERA to 4.98 ERA – From .735 OPS to .730 OPS

Connor Rogers and Joe DeMayo look back on another tough week, but look ahead to the debut of top prospect A.J. Ewing on the latest episode of The Mets Pod. 

After an underwhelming stretch of play for the Mets, the guys discuss the call up of Ewing, the team's continued offensive struggles, and what to make of Francisco Alvarez. 

Later, Connor and Joe go Down on the Farm to check in on power-hitting prospect Ryan Clifford, and answer Mailbag questions about trade ideas, going back in time to the beginning of the offseason, hitting philosophy, and the overall direction of the franchise. 

Be sure to subscribe to The Mets Pod at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Yankees are 26-16 and currently in second place in the AL East. Let's open up the mailbag and answer some Yankees questions...

In your opinion, which positions with the Yankees need an upgrade? -- @MrEd315

First of all, the real answer is “not many.”

The Yankees look about as complete as any team I’ve seen outside Los Angeles in several years. I think they will need relief help. And I think they might need to consider another infield bat if Jazz Chisholm Jr.continues to struggle. While Ryan McMahon looks like the best offensive version of himself lately, his career numbers suggest that might not continue. If it does, great. If it doesn’t, the Yankees probably cannot absorb both their third and second baseman struggling offensively if they want to continue cruising through their regular season schedule.

But Chisholm will almost certainly hit sooner or later. He has been open about the impact warmer weather has on him, and his career numbers and underlying metrics suggest better times are coming soon.

As for McMahon, Yankees hitting coaches and teammates have worked so diligently with him that it is possible he is a better hitter now than he used to be. If he outpaces his career OPS (.735) by even 30 points, he will be among the top 10 third baseman in baseball in that category (though admittedly, currently struggling stars like Bo Bichette, Manny Machado, and Matt Chapman seem likely to rise). Still, with his defense, any offense from McMahon is a huge boost. And it is hard to think of another offensive position where the Yanks could even consider upgrading, given the talent they have throughout their roster.

Seems like the concerns of the fans in the offseason – namely not shoring up the pen – are already a problem? -- @mtill50

The bullpen is definitely the weakest link on this roster, though that in itself is not much of an indictment. And while it hasn’t always felt like it, Yankees relievers have actually been very sturdy: Their 3.28 ERA is second only to the Rangers for the best bullpen mark in baseball. Yankees relievers have left 77.1 percent of inherited runners on base, better than all but three teams.

But they are not dominant, and they will need some dominance to make it through October. Their collective Stuff+ rating is middle-of-the-pack. Their swinging strike rating is 10th in baseball. Their strikeouts-per-nine is 17th. Tim Hill and Jake Bird rate highly in Stuff+ individually, but Hill is not a traditional closing option and Bird has not yet proven he can be consistent. Fernando Cruz has been solid. David Bednar has been steady. But neither is blowing hitters away. Still, approximately 28 other teams would be overjoyed to have strong-not-dominant relief options as their biggest problem.

Even so, that unit has shown its cracks as the Yanks have lost four games in a row, three of them late. But cracks in the bullpen are easy to patch midseason, and Brian Cashman has plenty of history of being aggressive in doing so. Though he and his front office have eschewed giving major free agent contracts to elite relievers in recent years, they have traded for multiple relievers during the season in that span. I would assume they plan to do so again, even as arms like those belonging to Carlos Lagrange and others in the minors continue to look like promising options for later this season.

It’s been a real good start, but are there real reasons to believe this season will end any differently than each season since 2010? -- @yankeemac1 on BlueSky

I think there might be more reasons than ever to believe that this season will end differently than every season since their 2009 title, if that’s what you mean (don’t worry, the last decade and a half is a blur for me, too). I think even Aaron Boone and his staff can sense it.

If you’ll remember last October, Boone was adamant that the team that lost to the Blue Jays was one of the best teams he had managed. Now, with a whole offseason of work with McMahon and Jose Caballero and the emergence of Cam Schlittler and the ascension of Max Fried, I have a hard time thinking of a Yankees team that has been better.

In fact, and I will stick by this even if they lose their next 20 games or somehow collapse before our eyes, I think this Yankees team could be the most formidable October challenger the Dodgers have seen in the last two years – particularly after they acquire that inevitable bullpen help in the next few months.

The main reason is their starting pitching: they are deeper than any team but the Dodgers, and maybe even deeper than Los Angeles, depending on how veterans like Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell fare health-wise the rest of the way.

Schlittler is a bona fide ace who pitches like he has never had a doubt in his life. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon will have plenty of time to figure out their new elbows and less than a full season of innings on their arms by October. Fried looks like a legitimate Cy Young candidate and has proven his October mettle before. They can match up with Snell, Shohei Ohtani, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a long series, and they can match up with any American League team’s top two starters in a short one.

But beyond that, I think they are also as well-rounded as any Yankees team Boone has had here. No longer is this team just an assembly of huge, station-to-station sluggers. Caballero and Chisholm can really run, and they aren’t afraid to do it. Outside of Giancarlo Stanton, the rest of the lineup is fully capable of stealing bases and has been aggressive in doing so. They can hit for power, but they take enough pitches that they can wear pitchers down and create rallies out of nothing. And with their speed, even a walk is a rally.

Now, for the corny part.

I think the "running it back" concerns that circulated around them this offseason were understandable. I think in some cases (maybe the Phillies, though time will tell), shakeups are needed. But I think with this particular Yankees group, running it back gave a largely veteran roster more time to coalesce. For example, the offseason and spring training built more trust between Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt and McMahon, who has heeded their tutelage offensively and improved because of it. They seem to understand each other’s strengths and take at-bats accordingly. They are comfortable, and they are experienced enough to know what has gone right and wrong for them in the postseason.

I think this is a really, really good team. Of course, we’ve seen really good teams fall in the postseason before. Heck, we’ve seen really good teams fall apart in the regular season before. But this particular really good team is deep, experienced, talented, well-rounded, and comfortable in its own skin. Few teams in recent years, let alone Yankees teams, have been able to say all of that. And even fewer, I gather, have been able to sense it. I think, based on the way veterans talk about their lineup and their clubhouse, that this team does.

The Yankees offense is in a bit of a rut, losing their last four games by scoring three or fewer runs in each. It coincides with a period in which several of their hitters — Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Domínguez, and José Caballero — have dealt with or are dealing with minor injuries, but really the prime culprit has been a spike in strikeouts by the entire lineup. We therefore have to go back to the series finale against the Rangers for our At-Bat of the Week, courtesy of Trent Grisham.

We join Grisham with one out in the bottom of the sixth. The Yankees trail, 2-1, but have the bases loaded thanks to walks by Cody Bellinger and Ryan McMahon sandwiched around an Amed Rosario single and Jazz Chisholm Jr. pop out. It’s really only their second prime opportunity to score off of MacKenzie Gore, who had found his groove after yielding the pair of triples in the first. So far Grisham has flied out to left and singled on a pop up, Gore attacking him with four-seamers and sliders.

Gore got Grisham to swing over the top of a first pitch slider away the last AB, so he attempts the same tactic with the first pitch in this encounter.

Instead, Gore pulls this pitch badly and it ends up in the dirt for an easy take by Grisham. At no point was this pitch in the zone, meaning Grisham’s bat never leaves his shoulder.

After mis-executing the previous pitch, Gore switches gears to the fastball, but this time opts to go with the sinker instead of the four-seamer.

This is just rude from Gore, and highlights why it is so important for starting pitchers to possess more than one type of fastball. To this point, the only type of fastball that Grisham has seen from Gore has been the four-seamer. Grisham correctly diagnoses fastball out of Gore’s hand here and chooses a swing path based on the way he has seen the four-seamer move. However, rather than hold its plane vertically without much arm-side movement like the four-seamer, this sinker dives down and in. The result is an on-time swing from Grisham, but still a whiff over the top given how it is effectively impossible to distinguish sinker from four-seamer based on the ball’s spin.

After seeing Grisham whiff on the previous pitch by a fair margin, the logical course is for Gore to throw another one to the exact same location and see if he can induce the same outcome.

Gore leaves this sinker middle-middle, and Grisham does not miss. He stays back for an extra tick before firing a short-compact swing, driving the ball into the left-center field gap for a bases-clearing double to give the Yankees back the lead, knock Gore from the game, and spark an eventual six-run inning. I love how Grisham is able to make a mid-AB adjustment from one pitch to the next. All he needed was to see and swing over a single sinker, giving him enough information to doctor his swing path so that he can square it up on the very next pitch.

Here’s the full AB:

You might raise your eyebrows at a sub-.200 hitter batting leadoff. However, Grisham’s 15.5-percent walk rate places him in the 92nd percentile of qualified batters, making him one of the few on-base threats in the Yankees lineup. Much like Ben Rice last year, Grisham has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball when you compare his results to his batted ball and discipline data. He places in 100th percentile in squared-up rate and 99th percentile in chase rate while sitting comfortably in the top-20 percent of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. The almost 50-point gap between his wOBA and expected wOBA is one of the largest deficits in the league, and his .184 BABIP is 75 points below his career average and is due for positive regression. As this AB showed, Grisham is one of the most adept Yankees hitters at making an in-game adjustment even one pitch to the next, which combined with the fact that Grisham’s under-the-hood metrics look quite similar to his career year last season gives me confidence that the results shouldn’t be far behind.

When the Mets sat at 10-21 as the calendar flipped from April to May, they were at rock bottom. 

New York was fresh off a 12-game losing streak, with the end of it overlapping with a 3-6 homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals that led to loud questions about manager Carlos Mendoza's job as the club boarded its flight for a nine-game road trip -- questions that were at least temporarily put to rest soon after by president of baseball operations David Stearns. 

The West Coast jaunt started out in promising fashion, with New York going 5-2 to open it. But two listless losses to the Diamondbacks capped the trip, with the Mets mustering just two runs total in those defeats.

While the Mets have played a tick above .500 since bottoming out at 10-21, they need to turn it on if they hope to make anything of this season.

At 15-25, they have the worst record in baseball, and -- aside from A.J. Ewing, who could offer a jolt but should absolutely not be viewed as a savior -- there doesn't seem to be help coming any time soon.

Francisco Lindoris out long-term, and could be a few days away from a follow-up MRI on his calf injury. If the news is good, his progression could be "relatively quick." But he's still weeks away from being on the radar.

Meanwhile, the injuries to Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco are lingering, and there is essentially no timetable for either one of them, meaning New York is without three of its five most important hitters. 

Beyond that, the Mets are probably exhausted, having flown to the West Coast three times already this season -- an absurd bit of schedule-making that boggles the mind.

In any event, to sum things up: the Mets have a pitching staff that is good enough for them to be a playoff team (their 170 runs allowed are sixth-best in the NL, and the five NL teams better than them are all in playoff position), and an offense that is bad enough for them to be a last place team (their 139 runs scored are tied with the Giants for the fewest in baseball).

Will the offense wake up before it's too late? And which players should New York rely on daily to try to get out of these offensive doldrums?

Given Lindor's absence (opening up shortstop for Bichette) and the promotion of Ewing, it can be argued that the Mets should trot out this configuration most days, and not revolve lineups around the handedness of the opposing pitcher -- as they were doing until recently against lefties while sitting Benge:

A.J. Ewing, CF
Juan Soto, LF
Bo Bichette, SS
Francisco Alvarez, C
Carson Benge, RF
Mark Vientos, 1B
Brett Baty, 3B
Marcus Semien, 2B
MJ Melendez, DH

It's fair to believe Ewing will not be the leadoff hitter from the jump, but he certainly profiles there in the long run given his bat-to-ball ability and penchant for working deep counts.

A much more difficult thing to answer is whether this unit will be good enough to lift New York out of the doldrums.

Soto's slump will end, Bichette's advanced stats show a likely rise to the mean is coming, Benge looks comfortable as he continues to get acclimated to the majors, and Alvarez has produced at right around an average level. But there are enormous questions about the other potential main lineup cogs.

As the Mets try to get their undermanned offense going and stack wins, here's what their schedule looks like for the rest of May:

3 games vs. Tigers
3 games vs. Yankees
4 games @ Nationals
3 games @ Marlins
3 games vs. Reds
3 games vs. Marlins

Given their current place in the standings, the Mets are in no position to look down their noses at any team in the majors. But accounting for their expectations before the season and their personnel, they're going to have to win most series they play against teams like the Nats and Marlins if they hope to get back in it. As far as the Reds, they're reeling, having lost eight of their last 10 games and sporting a -33 run differential that suggests their 22-19 record is a mirage.

The Tigers are also flailing a bit, sitting at 19-22 and currently without Tarik Skubal.

The Yankees, despite their four-game losing streak, are one of the most well-rounded teams in baseball. They'll be a huge challenge, but perhaps the atmosphere at Citi Field helps ignite something in the Mets.

By going 15-25 to open the season, the Mets have given themselves little margin for error the rest of the way. They also have a ton of work to do if they want to prove that the first 40 games were an aberration.

In order to have a realistic chance to reach the postseason, the Mets will likely have to go about 71-51 between now and the end of the season, which would mean finishing with a record of 86-76. Over the last three seasons, the final NL Wild Card has finished with between 83 and 89 wins, so we split the difference for this prognostication.

The season won't be over if the Mets don't make serious progress between now and the end of May, but they'll certainly be closer to becoming a seller at the trade deadline than a team that stands pat or buys -- a situation that would've been unthinkable six weeks ago.

Raise your hand if you knew that 41 games into the season — one-quarter of the way — the Braves and Cubs would have the two best records in the National League.

I better not see any hands raised because, no, you didn’t know that. None of us did.

But that should make this a good matchup for this early in the season.

For more on the Braves, here’s Demetrius Bell, manager of our SB Nation Braves site Battery Power.

It’s been a long time (well, a long time for Braves fans) since Atlanta’s looked this good. Despite coming into this series with all types of injury concerns and a lot of legitimate concerns about the pitching staff being able to compete at a high level, things have gone extremely well for the Braves to get this season started. Their 25-10 start through 35 games is actually the best start they’ve had to a season since 1892 (!!!) and while they did end up dropping a series to the Mariners last week, they ended a 6-3 road trip out West with a somewhat comprehensive series win in Los Angeles over the Dodgers. They hadn’t even won a game at Dodger Stadium since 2023 — much less a series. The Braves are rolling and there’s a real sense of excitement about the team at the moment. 

While there was plenty of concern about the pitching staff and the lack of offseason moves that were made to address the questions surrounding the rotation, this appears to have been all part of the plan for Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos. He stated multiple times that he figured that the problem all along for the Braves over their past two seasons had been their lack of hitting (compared to how they mashed the ball in 2022 and 2023). Well, here we are in 2026 and right now, they’re one of the top-hitting teams in all of baseball according to wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA and Isolated Power. 

Matt Olson is playing like the best first baseman (and one of the best players, overall) in baseball at the moment, Drake Baldwin is starting to establish himself as an elite-hitting catcher, Michael Harris II is looking more like the star-caliber player he was during the second half of 2025 instead of the genuinely-awful player he was during the first half of that season and Ozzie Albies is on track for a big-time bounce-back season. Mauricio Dubón has been surprisingly good at the plate as well and they’ve been getting timely hitting from the bench. Walt Weiss has been pushing all the right buttons for most of this squad and some of his pinch hitting/running choices have paid off in spades. 

Pitching-wise, Chris Sale has continued to be consistently good but Bryce Elder has surprisingly been the top guy in the rotation so far. Spencer Strider is back and he looked great during his outing against the Dodgers, so he may be back as well. The questions surrounding the rotation have persisted and that could be Atlanta’s downfall in this series considering that they’ve been going on a series-by-series revolving door of starting pitcher in the back end of their rotation but so far they’ve been relying on Martín Pérez and JR Ritchie to deliver as well. The bullpen has been solid and again, Walt Weiss is managing like someone who understands what high-leverage and low-leverage is. 

The fact that they’ve done all of this with Austin Riley mostly struggling, Ronald Acuña Jr. looking like a normal human being instead of a supernova, Sean Murphy having only played a handful of games and Ha-Seong Kim having played no games is really impressive in my view. I’d say that we haven’t seen this team’s ceiling quite yet, which is exciting for us Braves fans. The Cubs are going to be tough, though and I am really looking forward to seeing how this series shakes out. It should be a fun one!

Fun facts

The Cubs’ next loss to the Braves will be their 900th since 1901, the first season of the Modern Era.

If it comes in this series, it will be their 600th on the road vs. the Braves since 1876, when both were charter members of the new National League. The Cubs have lost exactly 600 on the road against the Phillies.

They have won 556 when visiting the Braves. They are 700-466 at home, for a total record of 1,256-1,065-18. That .541 winning percentage is the Cubs’ second highest against a current NL opponent. They are .544 (285-239) vs. the Padres, who began play in 1969.

Last year, the Cubs won two of three at Atlanta. It was their first series win there since 2018. In 2019-24, they were 3-13.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Tuesday: Colin Rea, RHP (4-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, 3.68 FIP) vs. Grant Holmes, RHP (2-1, 4.34 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 5.03 FIP)

Wednesday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (4-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.930 WHIP, 2.81 FIP) vs. JR Ritchie, RHP (1-0, 3.63 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.88 FIP)

Thursday: Ben Brown, RHP (1-1, 1.82 ERA, 0.910 WHIP, 2.66 FIP) vs. Chris Sale, LHP (6-2, 2.20 ERA, 0.878 WHIP, 3.48 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Tuesday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, TBS (outside the Cubs and Braves market territories)

Wednesday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Thursday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, Peacock (streaming, Braves broadcast, outside the Cubs and Braves market territories)

Prediction

This series will be a good test for the Cubs, as they come in one game behind Atlanta for the best record in the NL.

The Cubs appear to have the advantage re: pitching matchups in two of these three, so I’m picking that, even though the Cubs have not done well at Truist Park historically (10-15 all-time there, though as noted by John, they did win two of three in Atlanta last year).

Also, the Cubs are 21-9 in games started by RHP and just 6-5 vs. games started by LHP, even though overall their OPS vs. LHP (.804) is better than their OPS vs. RHP (.746).

Up next

The Cubs return to Chicago and go to the South Side for a three-game series against the White Sox beginning Friday evening.

Inspiration.

One of my favorite players was named minor league pitcher for the month of April.  Two accomplishments follow:

• Allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 appearances with the Aces.
• His 0.66 ERA ranked second among all Triple-A relievers

In July of 2024, I wrote about the secrets of his success. Circumstances made his future uncertain. He kept his dream alive and he worked hard (extraordinarily hard) to prepare, not knowing if he would ever get an opportunity.

In November of 2025, I wrote his player review.  The review considered three possible additions to the rotation (Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, and Kohl Drake), and it noted that Diaz had the fastest average fastball velocity (95.3 MPH vs 94.1 and 93.3/92.7).  Also, the review looked at his control of the strike zone, especially walks per batter faced.  In 2025 AAA, his 28.4% walks per batter faced was high.   Spoiler:  In 2026 through 8 May, his 9.0% walks per batter faced was an awesome improvement (as was his 11.1% in spring training).

Let’s look at reasons he is ready to be called up to the Majors.

Two tables tell the story.

This season in AAA he increased his control of the strike zone.  The first table shows four of the five statistics were improved.  He increased the percentage of pitches in the strike zone, while causing batters to greatly increase their swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing), which likely reduced the batters’ success.  Data from FanGraphs, games through 8 May 2026.

This season, Diaz had more strikeouts than walks. Perhaps more remarkable were his 50% increase in whiffs and his 50% decrease in barrels per PA.  The second table shows nine statistics that were improved. Data from Baseball Savant, games through 8 May.

My conclusion is that he clearly showed he is ready to be called up to the Majors.

What delayed his call up?

In spring training he improved his walk rate. On the other hand, his .33 hits per PA and his barrels per PA were too high.  That sample size was small (18 batters faced) and spring training did not show his full potential.

I’m happy that this season in AAA he overcame the small sample size. With 67 batters faced, he reduced his hits per PA by 50%, and he reduced his barrels per PA by 50%.

A second reason for delay is that the Diamondbacks are a top-5 team in shutdown performances by bullpen pitchers. They are only three shutdowns from being the best in the Majors. My view is that this metric is important for bullpen pitchers (other metrics show them closer to an average bullpen). One of the reasons he won pitcher of the month was that he allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 games. For that reason, he would be a great addition to the bullpen.

Summary.

Last season, Diaz walked too many batters. That issue is gone. This season in AAA his walk rate was much lower, and his ratio of strikeouts to walks was much higher. Perhaps more remarkable were his 50% increase in whiffs and his 50% decrease in barrels per PA. 

This season in AAA he increased his control of the strike zone.  He increased the percentage of pitches in the strike zone, while causing batters to greatly increase their swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone, which reduced the batters’ success. 

One of the reasons he won pitcher of the month was that he allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 games. For that reason, he would be a great addition to the Diamondbacks bullpen, which excels in shutdown performances.

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The Padres head to Milwaukee for a possible postseason preview series. Milwaukee has won four straight, including a weekend sweep of the Yankees. San Diego leads the West despite struggling on offense.

The pitching matchup promises to give everyone a spark at the plate. That’s why my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks look for San Diego to get the road win on Tuesday, May 12.

Who will win Padres vs Brewers today: Padres moneyline (+116)

A division leader with a better record at underdog prices is a surprise, even on the road. The San Diego Padres haven’t been hitting, but they should be able to get things going against starter Brandon Sproat, a rookie who is winless in MLB. 

Sproat walks 5.3 batters per nine and allows 2.1 homers. All of his pitches rank in baseball’s bottom quartile.

The Milwaukee Brewers will face Matt Waldron, who has struggled with a 7.71 ERA this season, but the Padres may have found a solution. He pitched much better after an opener in his last outing and San Diego may try that again.

COVERS INTEL:For his career, Waldron has allowed a .971 OPS and 148 OPS+ in the first inning. He’s allowed 11 first-inning home runs, more than any other inning. 

Padres vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

The Padres have had trouble at the plate, however. In their series split with St. Louis over the weekend, San Diego managed just 14 hits—a franchise record low for a four-game series.

Like the Padres, the Brewers have been below league average at the plate all season and even worse lately. Milwaukee has a .625 OPS with 88 OPS+ over the last week. The Padres are .590 and 76 over the last seven days.

While the starters are shaky for both teams, Milwaukee and San Diego have outstanding bullpens, led by the Brewers’ Aaron Ashby and the Padres’ Mason Miller.

Padres vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: San Diego +117 | Milwaukee -122
• Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-178) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)

Padres vs Brewers trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.

How to watch Padres vs Brewers and game info

Padres vs Brewers latest injuries

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The top two teams in baseball meet for three games when the Chicago Cubs kick off a series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park tonight.

Chicago has hit a two-game mini-slump after winning 10 straight, but my Cubs vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks looks for that to end with a win over Atlanta on Tuesday, May 12.

Who will win Cubs vs Braves today: Cubs moneyline (+108)

The Chicago Cubs have won 20 of their last 25. However, they were shut out the last two games.

Texas stopped Chicago with starters featuring overpowering fastballs. Atlanta Braves right-hander Grant Holmes throws a fastball 2 mph slower and with 100 fewer revolutions in spin, which should spark an offense that was scoring six a game.

Holmes is also getting squared up consistently, ranking in the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate.

The Braves return from the West Coast. It’s their first home game since losing legendary owner Ted Turner and manager Bobby Cox. An emotional crowd might give Atlanta an early boost, but it will be a tired Braves team by the end of the night.

COVERS INTEL: Holmes actually throws his slider more than his fastball, but that’s also slower than the two Rangers starters that shut down Chicago. The Cubs have two players in MLB’s Top 50 batters against the slider and one in the Top 50 vs. the fastball.

Cubs vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

While the Cubs’ back-to-back blankings got more attention, the Braves have actually hit worse than Chicago over the last week. Both have been below league average: .606 OPS and 82 OPS+ for Atlanta, .644 and 94 for Chicago.

Holmes is far from the only pitcher who doesn’t throw as fast as Jacob deGrom, and his 94-mph heater has done well this season. The Braves have won four of his last five starts, and he’s been outstanding at getting batters to chase and swing & miss so far this season.

Chicago starter Colin Rea is 4-1 and has an even better chase rate. He’s been confounding batters with his offspeed stuff, and it should be enough to help keep this final below the somewhat lofty total.

Cubs vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Cubs +102 | Braves -122
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+157) | Braves +1.5 (-191)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Cubs vs Braves trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.

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Cubs vs Braves weather

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What baseball god has it out for Sean Murphy?

After a long and windy road that includes his season-ending hip surgery and rehab after, Murph has played four (4) games since returning on May 4. The initial X-rays were fine per Mark Bowman, and Walt Weiss seemed optimistic. But the the catcher’s interference play in the Dodgers series finale on Sunday is officially a fractured left middle finger for #12. He has been placed on the 10-day IL backdated to yesterday, May 12. Absolutely brutal.

And exactly like the last time Murphy went down, the veteran Sandy León will step up to back up Drake Baldwin. Confused and wondering why he was a free agent to begin with? You’re not misremembering – León was with the team on a minor league contract and played ten games with the Gwinnett Stripers this season. However, the Braves granted him his release per his request on April 22 to pursue an opportunity with the Saraperos de Saltillo of the Mexican League. Now that we are Heim-less, the Braves have gone with the veteran and beloved presence in León instead of the current Triple-A options of Chadwick Tromp and Jaír Camargo.

Outfielder José Azócar also knows what the revolving door feels like, and here he is back with the major league club. To recap briefly, he was DFA’d May 6, elected free agency May 8, and signed his new minor league contract yesterday, May 11. He’ll occupy the fourth OF / pinch runner role. And as many predicted with the return of Ha-Seong Kim, Jim Jarvis (of MLB’s play of the week fame) has been optioned down to Triple-A in a corresponding move.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired outfielder Alek Thomas from the division-rival Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for teenage prospect Jose Requena.

The teams announced the deal on Tuesday, May 12, after the D'backs had designated Thomas for assignment during the weekend to create a roster spot for top prospect Ryan Waldschmidt.

Thomas, 26, is a skilled defensive center fielder, but he's not been very productive at the plate over his five seasons in Arizona, producing a career OPS of .634.

The Dodgers currently have Andy Pages as their everyday center fielder, though Thomas could provide additional depth and a potential platoon partner against tough right-handed pitchers.

Add another $1.45 million to the Dodgers’ payroll with the acquisition of CF Alek Thomas https://t.co/gSMoTKoZGb

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) May 12, 2026

The Dodgers have yet to announce an official roster move to add Thomas, who does have minor-league options remaining and could be sent to Triple-A Oklahoma City to begin his tenure with the team.

Recently, Eric Stephen made the following observation on BlueSky, referencing the extinct dodo bird in relation to MLB physical tickets.

I was going to respond, but then I realized I could channel my inner Brennan Lee Mulligan and tie together a couple of stories I had been meaning to write about, as I stumbled upon all this information across various threads, which I now combine into a single article of moderate success.

In other words, if I had to go down a rabbit hole on a train of thought, I now share what I found with everyone.

Eric Stephen is not alone in missing physical tickets. With the rise of smartphones and the MLB Ballpark app, the march to an all-digital baseball experience seemed inevitable. Rebecca Tauber of The Athletic recently covered how the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend.

Digital tickets became increasingly common in the 2010s, with the rise of smartphones. The convenience of a digital ticket was clear; no need to worry about losing a physical ticket. Security concerns persist — digital ticket theft remains a risk — but digital ticket holders typically have stronger buyer protections, especially in the resale market. If stadiums were already heading in an all-digital direction, the pandemic hastened that change. Like restaurant menus and MetroCards, the world went digital and never returned.

But the desire for paper tickets persists, and not just among fans without smartphones.

While one can use the MLB Ballpark app as a digital record of attendance and travel, there is something to be said for having a physical reminder of an outing. On a surface level, it would seem an apt analogy for MLB physical tickets and the now-extinct Dodo, but ultimately, looks can be deceiving.

Pity the Dodo

In order to understand the true comparison, we must first detour to examine the poor flightless extinct bird. The Dodo was killed off by a combination of overhunting by the Dutch in the 17th century. The Dodo did not stand much chance in hindsight, as the birds were unused to humans, and the invasive animals the Dutch brought with them, like cats and dogs, also drove the bird to extinction.

Perhaps it was this shortsighted mindset that led the Dodgers to try to deny longtime season-ticket holder Errol Segal his physical season tickets earlier this year. Why honor a relationship where there is a quick buck to be made?

Alex Rozier and Robert Westermann of KNBC Channel 4 reported on the story in early April about how the Dodgers initially refused to print Mr. Segal’s season tickets. In the initial report, Mr. Segal eventually went to the ticket office to receive four physical tickets and had previously paid a surcharge for his season tickets because he lacked both the ability and the equipment to handle purely digital tickets.

It’s not that the Dodgers couldn’t print his tickets; it’s that they wouldn’t.

Two weeks later, after public outcry, KNBC reported that the Dodgers relented.

The team had initially offered to buy the tickets back from him, but Segal refused….

After his story was seen by millions online, the Dodgers changed their minds.

“It makes me so happy when I hand them the ticket and the smile on their face,” Segal said. “There’s nothing like an original paper ticket.”

The faithful Dodger fan now looks forward to cheering his favorite team on in person.

What Mr. Segal failed to realize was that physical tickets are now essentially a luxury item and another source of revenue for teams. So if the Dodo is the wrong bird, and you have taken notice of the title, you might be asking yourself a very obvious question.

What is an ortolan?

An ortolan is a small, endangered European songbird that, like the dodo, eaten by man. Where one can understand that 17th-century sailors might not have been fully aware of or understand conservation efforts, modern chefs cannot claim the same excuse.

Modernly, ortolans are usually drowned in brandy, which serves as both a method of dispatch and a marinade, and is eaten whole by diners minus the beak.

It is generally illegal to eat these birds, as morally dubious chefs used to blind them, tricking them into thinking it was perpetually nighttime, allowing them to gorge themselves to double or triple in size. Traditionally, one wore a napkin over one’s face when eating ortolan to capture all the flavors and hide one’s shame from God.

These birds have been featured as a minor plot point on shows like Billions, Succession, and Hannibal. Accordingly, consumption of these birds has led to an entire mythology surrounding their consumption as a status symbol for the “morally flexible,” ultra-wealthy, which is a tautology if ever there was one.

Even with the consumption of the palm-sized bird being outlawed since 1999, estimates suggest that about 30,000 ortolans are consumed in France annually, with each bird sold for around 150 euros. Whether these birds are doomed to extinction is an open question outside the scope of this essay.

Ortolans and Paper Tickets

For those straining to see the connection, paper tickets were once given freely and were not status symbols or sources of extra revenue for teams, unlike now. However, tnlike the songbird, no one will generally judge a person for obtaining a paper ticket.

There is even a boutique market for creating commemorative paper tickets. Once again, Ms. Tauber:

In the collectibles world, the market for paper tickets pales in comparison to items like sports cards or game-used equipment. Of course, pieces of history fetch a price, like a 1947 ticket stub from Jackie Robinson’s debut, which sold in 2022 for $480,000, and a 1984 ticket from Michael Jordan’s debut, which sold that same year for $468,000.

Some stadiums will still print tickets on demand; sometimes, fans can pay extra for printed tickets for special games. But many don’t print tickets purchased online for everyday games, disappointing fans who want a built-in souvenir and driving up the cost for the rare stub from a noteworthy occasion. Paper tickets from Konnor Griffin’s Pittsburgh Pirates debut on April 3 against the Baltimore Orioles (only available at the PNC Park box office for an additional fee), for example, are currently selling for hundreds of dollars in good condition.

And as interest in paper tickets has persisted — possibly more for nostalgia-fuelled souvenir collecting than actual utility — some artists and businesses are trying to fill the gap. Entire souvenir companies specialize in printing commemorative ephemera, including fake versions of paper tickets to a concert or baseball game a fan might have attended, as well as digital tickets. One website, The Creative Lane, sells custom commemorative tickets for $8.99 to $10.99.

(Emphasis added.)

I can attest to this highlighted fact in my travels. I bought commemorative tickets that either used the honor system of where I was sitting in Arizona (Walker Buehler’s near no-hitter in 2021) and San Francisco (NLDS Game 2) or insisted on accuracy by checking my MLB Ballpark app before selling me a ticket (Arlington 2025).

For Ohtani’s 50/50 game, the Marlins were just selling tickets off a reel with no rhyme or reason for seats in the upper deck, which was closed off during the game, and an area where no one sat. And yet I bought two, selling one for cost to another fan I ran into at the hotel in Miami who could not wait in the lengthy, impromptu line for a souvenir physical ticket.

While the Giants sold an official commemorative ticket, I had to get creative for Game 7’s ticket, using an eBay vendor to source a facsimile.

Considering how hard the Blue Jays have been leaning into “AL Pennant” winning promotions, one would imagine that had Game 7 gone the other way, the amount of merchandise would be enough to float the finances of the province of Ontario.

At the end of the day, one should not have to go through as many hoops to eat an endangered songbird to get a paper ticket, as one act is decadent and monstrous, and the other is the collection of a bygone memento to indicate how one enjoys their fandom.

I will leave it to you, dear reader, to identify which topic is which.