Category: Baseball

MLB free agency is underway, though you wouldn’t know it by the (lack of) moves being made. It figures to be a month-long period before it goes on holiday while the owners and players bicker and negotiate and draw up a new CBA, and then free agency will return.

It’s a rather uninspiring free agent class this year. Lefty ace Tarik Skubal figures to make about as much money as Elon Musk spent funding losing campaigns this year, but after that? There’s a chance that no one else clears nine figures. But there are some former Giants out there, and while most of them are likely not on the team’s radar for a potential reunion, it’s still fun keeping tabs on them.

So let’s look at where the former Giants rank on two top-50 free agent lists: Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens, and ESPN’s Kile McDaniel.

Second baseman Luis Arráez, who was an All-Star for the Giants in his lone season with the team this year, before being traded for a very nice haul at the deadline, is the highest-ranked former Giant, as he comes in at No. 11 on Clemens’ list and No. 12 on McDaniel’s. Unfortunately for Arráez, his performance really slowed down after the trade, as he posted an 82 wRC+ in nearly 200 plate appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies, after having a 121 mark in more than 450 plate appearances with the Giants. This seems to have hurt his standing around the league, with Fangraphs projecting him for a two-year, $38-million deal, and ESPN for a three-year, $54-million contract.

Next up are a pair of righties: Kevin Gausman and Tyler Mahle. They’re back-to-back on the respective lists, albeit in different orders: Gausman is No. 15 to Mahle’s No. 16 on ESPN’s list, while Fangraphs is a little less amped, with Mahle at No. 26 and Gausman No. 27.

The two publications differ quite a bit on their expectations for Gausman, who is coming off his worst ERA since 2019, though his FIP was still quite solid. Fangraphs thinks Gausman will get a modest one-year, $17-million deal, while ESPN pegs him for three years and $51 million. I’d be pretty happy with the Giants do either of those deals.

While it’s easy to see the Giants targeting Gausman this offseason, they almost certainly won’t be going after Mahle, who struggled mightily on a one-year prove-it deal with San Francisco this year, before taking off after being traded to the Atlanta Braves (who promptly changed his pitch mix). That performance in Atlanta likely earned him a lot of money this winter, and Fangraphs thinks he’ll get paid $30 million over two years, while ESPN projects $49.5 million over three years.

Utility player Mauricio Dubón figures to have his pick from a lot of interested teams, given his defensive brilliance and versatility, and quality bat. It’s hard to imagine a reunion given that the Giants don’t have a pressing need at any one position, and he didn’t exactly depart on the best terms (though it seems his issues were solely with Gabe Kapler). McDaniel, who ranks Dubón as the No. 34 free agent around, projects two years and $16 million for Dubón, while Clemens ranks him No. 45, with a predicted contract of $8 million for one season.

Pitcher Matthew Boyd also made both lists (No. 48 at Fangraphs, projected for one year and $9 million; No. 50 at ESPN, projected for one year and $10 million), if you want to consider him a former Giant.

And those are the former Giants on the top free agents lists, though there are certainly plenty of other former Giants available on the market, including Robbie Ray, Steven Okert, Taylor Rogers, Joc Pederson, Jakob Junis, and Michael Conforto.

Recently, there have been reports that the Baltimore Orioles are open to trading just about anyone on their roster with the exception of Pete Alonso. Which is kind of a weird player to say you’re not trading, but realize it has a lot to do with the contract. They wouldn’t get much for him. Specifically mentioned in fact was that Gunnar Henderson is on the table. He’s not on the block, but if they are blown away, they will trade him. But the title of this post does not mention Gunnar Henderson, because he is not the only potential 3B on the Orioles the Cardinals could trade for. I’ll look at every possible option.

Gunnar Henderson

Steamer projects Henderson for 4.8 WAR in 632 PAs, which seems fair to me. Last season was a down season at just 3.6 fWAR, but before that was a 4.8 fWAR season and a 7.6 fWAR season. He will be 26 next season. He is projected for a 125 wRC+. Despite not reaching that mark in the last two seasons, that is his career wRC+. Given his age, and I do feel slightly uncomfortable about doing this, I will project a slight decline in the second season, but not half a win like I normally do. So I will project his 2028 season at 4.5 WAR. He will be a free agent after 2028, so that means the Cardinals will be trading for 9.3 WAR.

What is his salary? MLB Trade Rumors projects $14.1 million in 2027. That is a rock solid estimate. His 2028 season could more accurately be called a guess. An educated one, but a guess. Using the 25/40/62 method calculated by Point of Pittsburgh, that would make his 2028 salary $22 million. I don’t think it would realistically be much lower than that, and has a good chance to be higher. But the lower it is, the more value he holds in a trade, so we’re only hurting what the Cardinals have to give up if we have a low salary. 9.3 WAR for $36.1 million is $56.9 million. Let’s call it an even $60 million in trade value.

I will be using Fangraphs updated prospect valuations, released in the middle of this most recent season. Thank you to Ben Clemens and that group for doing so, because I had been relying on former VEB site manager Craig Edwards’s methods, which predated the pandemic. So now it’s not outdated thankfully.

So right off the bat, we’re giving up Liam Doyle in this trade. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a non-negotiable, but the other option is Rainiel Rodriguez. I am for sure going with the pitcher when faced with that choice. Good news: that’s over half the value in this trade! Other good news: the rest of the value we have to make up is not another top 100 prospect. Doyle is, according to the above article, worth $45 million in trade value.

Then I’ll pick the next most obvious player to include in this trade: if we’re getting a 3B for at least the next two years, it makes sense to trade what everyone assumes is the heir apparent to the position, Jesus Baez. I’m not exactly sure what to label Jesus Baez as far as future value goes. I don’t think he’s a 50 FV guy. I’m not sure if he’s 45+ or 45. It almost doesn’t matter, because 45 is worth $14.5 million. That’s pretty much the trade.

Because we are such a good fit, overpaying for Henderson should be a lot easier than for most teams. Our overpaying will come in the form of a catcher, because their backup catcher had a 33 wRC+ last season – not a typo – and they really don’t have any noteworthy catching prospects. Cardinals need to trade their catchers anyway. This is easy. They can take either Pedro Pages or Jimmy Crooks. I would assume Crooks, because he has offensive potential. But they might prefer Pages’ defense and might prefer a great defender behind offense-first Samuel Basallo. Crooks has to be worth the equivalent of a 45 FV prospect, despite his underwhelming MLB performance. He will be 25 and had a fantastic season in AAA.

So this is, by the numbers, a pretty decent overpay. It doesn’t feel like it because Crooks feels like spare parts and the loss of Baez is easy to take when he doesn’t have anywhere to play, making it feel like Doyle is the only real loss. Imagine if Baez was a surefire SS and Masyn Winn didn’t exist, and the Cardinals had Pedro Pages and Jimmy Crooks and nobody else at catcher. This would feel like too much right? A function of how well these two teams match up is why it feels like a no brainer trade. This if course does not mean the Orioles accept this.

Jesus Baez, Jimmy Crooks, and Liam Doyle for Gunnar Henderson

Jordan Westburg

Oh man do I wish I had ZiPS for Westburg. Westburg missed the entire 2026 season to Tommy John surgery and no he is not a pitcher. I have no idea what to project him for. Steamer has him with 421 PAs, which would be generous in my mind. He missed last year, had 352 PAs in 2025, and 447 PAs in 2024. In those 421 PAs, they project a 116 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR. I would be shocked if ZiPS has this good of a projection personally.

Westburg is 27 though, and to make up for what I feel is an optimistic projection given his injury history, knocking off half a win should even things out. So while Steamer has a 1.8 WAR projection, I expect ZiPS to be lower, but more stable if that makes sense. By the way I’m not even low on Westburg, I’m just looking at his history and Steamer almost pretends he didn’t miss 2026. His projection makes sense if this was for the 2026 season. Anyway, that is 3.9 WAR across three seasons.

Again MLB Trade Rumors provides us with his salary next season. It’s only $1.5 million. Past this upcoming season, that number could vary wildly. Showing health, regardless of how the season goes would be a big deal. If he bounces back, I think his second arbitration season would be about $5 million and his third arbitration year would be worth $10 million. But this is highly variable based on his performance. That’s 3.9 WAR for $16.5 million in three seasons. That would be $22.5 million in trade value.

I have two proposals, one of them is reflected by Westburg being currently somewhat of an unknown due to injury. Come on down Brandon Clarke! I’m not sure if he’s a 45+ FV prospect or a 45 FV prospect at this point. If the Orioles consider him the former, I’m teaming him with… Jimmy Crooks again yes. If the Orioles aren’t interested in a catcher, a trade with them makes much less sense frankly.

Now, if Clarke’s status as a 45+ FV prospect have ended and he is in fact now a 45 FV, I’m switching the pitcher to Daniel Eagen. I feel fairly comfortable saying he’s 45+ FV. Pairing him with Crooks is too much value however. Let’s take advantage of that. Let’s improve the bullpen. 32-year-old Rico Garcia had a good season last year, and has an okay projection. That should roughly make up the difference. Garcia has four years of team control, but is also 32 and a reliever.

Brandon Clarke and Jimmy Crooks for Jordan Westburg

OR

Daniel Eagen and Jimmy Crooks for Jordan Westburg and Rico Garcia

Coby Mayo

I’m going to cheat on these last few guys. I can calculate prospects. I can calculate arb eligible guys where I have an idea of their future salary. But the pre-arb guys who aren’t really that established? No idea. If you did a strict WAR and then salary, you’d probably end up with more trade value than they actually had. Not to mention the difficult with projections past this season. So I’m going to use a site I’m not actually a big believer in, but they’ve done more research into this than I have, and I trust their number for pre-arb guys more than whatever number I can come up with. I’m using Baseball Trade Values.

Accordingly, Mayo has $15.7 million in trade value according to their site. Great. (If you want to compare it to the previous two guys, they think I way overstepped with just $46.8 million for Henderson, but I came pretty damn close to Westburg, who has $25.3 million)

The future value prospect numbers being really outdated is making this very inconvenient. Also, I’m learning I don’t want really want Mayo. I can’t come up with a pitcher I’m willing to part with. You know what? I got it. You guys won’t like it. I’m cashing my chips on Cooper Hjerpe in this trade. And then the second piece could be either Jimmy Crooks or Pedro Pages, depending on how much value Hjerpe actually has. In theory, Crooks is too much, but I could see Hjerpe not really having much value. Unless it’s Mayo for Crooks straight up, I don’t really want Mayo. If we have to give up anything but a blocked prospect, I’m passing.

Cooper Hjerpe and Pedro Pages (or Jimmy Crooks) for Coby Mayo

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BTV is not a believer in this dude’s season. They value him at just $6.1 million. And to be fair, it is a grand total of 218 PAs following two absolutely dreadful seasons. And though he had a good OAA last season, the scouting for his defense is not positive and he’s been a below average 1B in his career, so to say I don’t trust that 3B defense would be an understatement. But it must be said he was quite good in a small sample (+3 in 411 innings). But all this does explain his low trade value.

I actually think I have a fair trade. CES is not necessarily the safest bet, so in response to that, I will give them a prospect that is not exactly the safest bet. Some of you will not like this. I’m sending Tekoah Roby in this trade. By Fangraphs, CES is worth roughly a 40+ FV pitching prospect. I think that describes Roby with his injury history. If you are not at all a believer in Roby’s health, this might be a good trade.

Tekoah Roby for Christian-Encarnacion Strand

Blaze Alexander

According to BTV, Alexander has $12.8 million in trade value. I’m going to be lazy and do a very similar trade. For Mayo, I suggested Hjerpe and either Crooks or Pages depending on how valuable Hjerpe was. Well, I’m going to do Hjerpe with Pages for this one. Alexander is worth less than Mayo by a few million, which more firmly puts him with what Hjerpe might be worth. Pages isn’t worth a whole lot, but is worth something. I think this is fair.

Cooper Hjerpe and Pedro Pages for Blaze Alexander

Conclusion

The Cardinals and Orioles are great fits, but it is predicated a lot on the Orioles actually being interested in a catcher. They may very well be fine rolling with Basallo and the random backup of the year. That was the Cardinals strategy with Yadier Molina. If they don’t want a catcher, the fit is not quite as clean. There’s also a good argument to be made that there’s not a whole lot of point to making some of these trades if it’s not Henderson and maybe Westburg. But I don’t know why the Orioles would trade Westburg right now, after a missing season, at his lowest value.

Blaze Alexander’s profile is more suggestive of a bench player, which is why he’s already been traded once. Both CES and Mayo have rather significant swing-and-miss in their game. And neither is expected to be all that good defensively, despite CES’ positive numbers in 2026. We kind of already have the unproven version of these players in Blaze Jordan. So I could see the Cardinals being uninterested in giving up value to players who are still kind of unreliable with not a large sample of proven success. They are only marginally more proven than Jordan. I kind of want Westburg, but again if I’m the Orioles, there’s no way I’m trading him after a lost season.

Book Corner

I mentioned I was reading a short book and a long book at the moment. The short book I’m reading is Playing Hard Ball: A Kent County Cricketeer’s Journey into Big League Baseball. The title is almost longer than the book. The author is credited as E.T. Smith, but it’s Ed Smith if you google him. Not real sure why his author name is E.T. when he’s not exactly hiding his identity. I do not remember why I got this book or when I got it, but it very well could have been on the recommendation of a VEB commentator honestly.

This was interesting, but I don’t really think I was the audience for this weirdly. This book feels made for cricket fans more than baseball fans honestly. I didn’t understand anything he was talking about whenever he was talking about cricket. And he would get into detail on specific matches, and I may as well have been attempting to read French.

And the blurbs on the back of the book suggest I am probably right about that. Not what they say, but their source: Sunday Telegraph, Daily Mail, Wisden Cricket Monthly, Daily Telegraph, and The Cricketer. I do believe these are all based in England. It was released in 2002 and he became a Mets fan, so it references the Subway series, 9/11, and the Yankees dominance.

You don’t have to be a cricket fan to like this book, but it probably helped if you were a Mets or Yankees fan or if I actually read this back in 2002, because this is pre-Moneyball, so it’s not like the baseball analysis or stats used are the greatest, not that I would expect them to be. The author clearly fell in love with baseball though and that does come across. He references Ball Four a few times, Ted Williams, has an extended section comparing Babe Ruth to the Babe Ruth of cricket, Sir Donald Bradman.

But whenever he started talking about cricket, I just could not follow what he was talking about. At all. I think you need a rudimentary understanding of cricket for this book. He tries to go through the basics of baseball to help non-baseball readers understand and either this book was really not meant for Americans and he just assumed you knew cricket or he is too ingrained in the game of cricket to realize that he didn’t do all that good a job of describing cricket to non-cricket fans.

Anyway, definitely interesting for time and place, seeing a skeptical cricket fan fall in love with baseball, and a newcomer’s perspective on baseball as a sport. I do think this was written to an audience of people who are not baseball fans more than people who are baseball fans though.

Good morning, Purple Row!

Here’s what’s going on with the Colorado Rockies and the rest of Major League Baseball.

Rockies News & Links

Goodman’s goal for ’27: Help Rockies’ pitchers find every available edge | MLB.com

Somewhat lost amidst the pitching coach turnover has been the impact on the Rockies catching staff. In addition to the standard duties of preparing themselves to hit and field, catchers are also tasked with building a rapport their entire pitching staff. Hunter Goodman makes the case that he feels better about his entire game when he is granted the opportunity call pitches rather than have them come from the dugout. This lends further credence to the idea that former pitching coach Alon Leichman was fired due to inability to get full team buy in for his vision of pitching strategy, which included dugout pitch suggestions.

The First Award of the Year: The Annual Vogelsong Awards | Baseball Prospectus ($)

Each year since 1996, Baseball Prospectus has published an enormous physical guide to the upcoming MLB season. This annual tome contains essays on every team as well as writeups on thousands of players. The Vogelsong awards are an attempt to recognize players that, despite not being deemed notable enough in the offseason to warrant a writeup in the annual, played exceptionally during the season. This season, BP tabbed Rockies rookie first baseman TJ Rumfield as the “clear-cut” winner of this award given his fabulous season and lack of representation in past annuals.

Rockies hire former big leaguer Andre Lipcius as video advance scout | Denver Post ($)

Rockies General Manager Josh Byrnes has brought in a former player that he worked with while with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a video advance scout. Andre Lipcius spent the 2024 season in the Dodgers minor-league season and impressed Byrnes so much that he was offered a coaching role as soon as his playing career ended this past season. The role itself is newly formed for the Rockies and will tie heavily into their game planning against the offenses of upcoming opponents.

Around MLB

MLB Issues Latest Proposal To MLBPA; Union Swiftly Rejects | MLB Trade Rumors

It took less than a full day for the MLBPA to emphatically reject the latest CBA proposal from MLB. Among other considerations, the proposal maintained the leagues top priority, a salary cap, but delayed it’s implementation by a year. The union wasted little time in making it clear that they will not accept this sort of structure. Barring a miraculous turnaround in negotiations, the current CBA expires in less than a month, and the league is expected to enact a lockout on December 1.

In response to the league's revised salary cap proposal, the MLBPA says "MLB owners continue to propose blowing up the current system and replacing it with one designed to line their pockets and increase their franchise values." pic.twitter.com/D8sIgMuFcR

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) November 3, 2026

Athletics Hire Cam Castro As General Manager | Atheletics News

Another executive has been poached from the World Series champion Brewers front office. Cam Castro spent the past seven years with the Brewers in various roles starting as a minor league pitching coach and working his way all the way up to be their vice president of player development. Castro will serve as the second in command under Taylor Smith who was hired away from the Red Sox earlier this offseason to be the Athletics president of baseball operations.

Here are the rosters for Sunday’s AFL Fall Stars Game | MLB.com

The annual Fall Stars game, highlighting the best performers in the Arizona Fall League is set to take place this Sunday at 6 PM MST. The roster is always a fun assortment of the leagues best prospects alongside players that have previously had little national spotlight. This season the Rockies will be well represented with four prospects — Jared Thomas (No. 8 PuRP), Andy Perez (No. 25 PuRP), Jack O’Dowd (HM PuRP) and Fidel Ulloa — making the cut.

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This past season, second baseman Michael Massey finally showed what he can truly do as a Royal.

Michael Massey entered this past Spring Training fighting for a spot on the Royals’ roster after an injury-plagued 2025 campaign, with the possibility of splitting time between second base and left field.

But even with his role uncertain, Massey had made one goal clear: He wanted to be a Gold Glove-caliber defender.

Eight months later, the 28-year-old is coming off one of his strongest Major League seasons to date. His turnaround, which included improved offensive numbers and an American League Gold Glove finalist selection, has given the Royals a different outlook at second base heading into 2027.

In case you missed it, Bobby Witt Jr. is an MVP finalist again.

Angeibel Gomez keeps receiving recognition.

As the second-youngest player ever to appear in the AFL, the 17-year-old outfielder has held his own nicely in the jump from the Dominican Summer League with a .306/.390/.444 line over 10 games for Surprise. Gomez has true five-tool potential and has seen time at all three outfield spots this fall, though the bulk of his time has come in right.

Zion Rose and Justin Lamkin also were talked about in the article above.

Where does Carter Jensen rank on long-term value for 2026 rookies?

Brian Burrows of Kings of Kauffman ponders what it would take for the Royals to get Elly De La Cruz.

Former Royal Franmil Reyes has been balling.

Could the Royals make a go at Drew Rasmussen?

Sam Caulder of Royals Keep gives three bullpen arms the Royals could target.

A list of ten free agents who boosted their stock in 2026.

A couple interesting names interviewed for the Astros managerial job.

Jason Kanzler had an interesting path to becoming the Mariners new manager.

Here is your song of the day: That’s the Way Love Is by Marvin Gaye

Note: this column assumes there will be a 2027 MLB season. Please disregard in advance should it not come to pass. Thank you.

I was more than a little surprised at how negative the Over the Monster staff was in our recent assessment of 2026. “No, it was not a success. Of course it wasn’t,” wrote Fitzy. “HELL NO!!!” wrote Matthew Gross. Maura McGurk was more terse, but same deal. Only Mike Carlucci and I thought otherwise. To each their own, of course, but over at DraftKings, the Red Sox have the 4th best odds for 2027, at +1100. So what gives? What’s the disconnect between what the world thinks of us and what we think of ourselves?

Several reasons spring to mind. The first 18 are the runs the Yankees scored against the Sox in the two-game walkover disguised as a playoff series, which left a bitter aftertaste to an otherwise exciting year. That’s understandable. The 19th reason is that the Red Sox likely get slightly inflated odds because of their large fanbase, which is why the Mets come in at +2200, same as the Rays. But that wouldn’t explain why the Mariners, of all teams, are in between them at +1800, tied with the Phillies. The 20th and final reason, tho is ye old Occam’s Razor: the Red Sox have good odds to win the title because they are a good team.

For all the hay that’s been made and will continue to be about the Dodgers supposedly “ruining” baseball, they obviously have done no such thing and it’s embarrassing to claim they have. They won back-to-back World Series titles, yes, but the second was by the absolute skin of their teeth, and this year they were swept to hell by the eventual World Series champion Brewers — who, like their Tampa Bay counterpart, built a team that got better and better and better as the years went by before walking to the title.

In the absence of a superteam (a concept that really doesn’t even apply in the playoffs), this is usually how it happens. Time will tell if the Red Sox will reach the mountaintop, but right now they’re on the right trail. While you’d be right to expect some pitching regression and wrong to expect them to win 120 games in July, the offense could easily stand to take a few steps forward at a time where only a few steps forward are needed. Craig Breslow hasn’t been shy about adding important pieces or shedding prospects who would have been needlessly considered sacrosanct under the previous administration. It’s a long season, but the offseason ain’t that short either.

The real question hanging over the winter is whether or not the hot stove really gets going, given the labor issues in play. Either way, I think the Sox are in a good spot. If it doesn’t heat up, their natural progression tends toward a 90-win season more than an 80-win one. If it does get cooking, the Sox are in a great position to make moves, with a still stacked-enough farm system to get deals done with any of the many teams happy to operate as high-value concessionaires rather than functioning baseball teams.

Buck up, friends. We may have been pounded into oblivion by the Yankees, but that was pretty much the end of their season as well. If that’s what got them to bring back Aaron Boone again, you could even argue it was worth our sacrifice. Either way, here’s hoping, and truly believing, that we won’t have to run the same calculus a third year running. And as the oddsmakers show, you don’t have to take my word for it.

You may not have noticed, but MLB free agency actually started on Tuesday. Usually, that doesn’t mean much considering the glacial pace of a normal offseason. But with the lockout looming on December 1st, maybe we’ll actually see a flutter of activity soon much like we did before the last lockout in the winter of 2021-2022. One can certainly hope.

On to the links.

Phillies News:

• Yet another pivotal offseason for the Phillies is just getting underway. What path will Dave Dombrowski take to improve a roster that needs fixes almost everywhere in a market with few options? ($)
• Cristopher Sánchez may have been a Cy Young finalist again this year, but his sinker wasn’t quite as sharp on the whole as it was in 2025. What can he do to remedy that problem?

MLB News:

• Former Cardinals MVP Albert Pujols will interview for the Houston Astros open manager position this week.
• The Athletics have hired Cam Castro, formerly of the Brewers, as their new general manager.
• More free agent contract projections, this time courtesy of the Atheltic’s Tim Britton. ($)

Hello, friends.

There are now 139 days remaining until the next scheduled Orioles game. Everyone has their own different level of pessimism for how likely it is that MLB’s owner-imposed lockout of the players will end by then in order to allow the season to begin.

How you feel about the Orioles rotation minus Trevor Rogers probably has a lot to do with how much urgency you think the team should have this offseason. The team had a “could have been worse” rotation in 2026 even with Rogers being as good as he was from about June on to the end of the season, finishing 17th in MLB with a 4.24 ERA. Probably half a run separated the Orioles from an actually good rotation. Some of that could have been helped with better defense. Some of it could have been helped by better pitching.

As things look right now, the rotation is lined up with Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Cade Povich, and Trey Gibson. That’s what is on FanGraphs projected depth chart and I think it seems like a good enough guess. That’s a bad rotation picture unless Povich or Gibson pulls off a Young-like turnaround into 2027, and it’s not even really guaranteed that Young stays turned around.

The needs are pretty much the same as they were going into last offseason. They need to reinforce the front end and they need to reinforce the back end too. Last year, the front end reinforcement was trading for Baz; with a 4.11 ERA, he was no help at the front end. The back end reinforcements were Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin. The Orioles lost Eflin for the season in the middle of his first start, which isn’t Mike Elias’s fault but that bad luck still hurt the team. Bassitt’s 4.59 ERA didn’t help the back end too much in the aggregate, though he was better after returning from back surgery.

They’re going to have to do better about it this year. Does Elias have it in him? If he has it in him, will he be able to show it before the lockout hits in December? These are the questions that will be lingering all month until they are either addressed in some affirmative way or the lockout hits and shows the answer is no. Given his track record, I don’t blame anybody for feeling anxious about it.

Today’s round of links from the last couple of days is very, very interested in what the Orioles are going to do about the rotation. There are no answers yet! Only possibilities, some of which you might think sound great and others you might dread instead.

Orioles stuff you might have missed

We are in the time of year where daily news or rumors are not guaranteed and if you diligently read the Bird Droppings daily, you may see repeats. Friends, it’s not going to get better in December.

Five big-swing trade ideas for the Orioles to consider (The Baltimore Banner)
Among the targets here for The Banner’s Andy Kostka are Steven Kwan and Reid Detmers.

Five biggest questions facing the Orioles as free agency begins (The Baltimore Sun)
The five things industrial complex cannot be resisted.

Improving Orioles rotation is ‘absolutely on the menu’ (Orioles.com)
We’ve heard this story before. Sometimes the effort in acquiring long-term pieces did not seem to be there. Other times, the results have not quite been there when the effort was put in.

Orioles could face tough task in replacing Trevor Rogers (Baltimore Baseball)
The only internal backup plans are “hope Kyle Bradish and/or Shane Baz pitch better than they did in 2026.”

More positives under the hood for Vance Honeycutt? (Orioles On The Verge)
For all of you out there who, like me, just can’t fully quit Vance Honeycutt.

Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries

Today in 1976, Jim Palmer was named the AL Cy Young for the second year in a row and third time in his career. This followed a season where he posted a 2.51 ERA across 315 innings. I know, 315! It proved to be the final win of a Cy for his career, though he had two runner-ups and a third place still to come.

In 1997, Davey Johnson was named the AL Manager of the Year, and also resigned as manager of the Orioles. In retrospect, this marked the start of a long, bad era of Orioles baseball.

There are a pair of former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2019 pitcher Josh Lucas, and 2004-06 catcher Javy López.

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: union leader Eugene V. Debs (1855), King of the Cowboys Roy Rogers (1911), musician Art Garfunkel (1941), Gundam creator Yoshiyuki Tomino (1941), and DJ Flume (1991).

On this day in history…

In 1605, the infamous Gunpowder Plot was discovered and thwarted as Guy Fawkes was arrested underneath the Houses of Parliament. He had been intending to blow up the king, James I.

In 1757, Prussia’s Frederick the Great won one of his great victories of the Seven Years War, defeating a combined French-Austrian force while outnumbered close to 2-1 in the Battle of Rossbach.

In 1872, women’s suffrage activist Susan B. Anthony cast a ballot. This was against the law and she was fined $100. In today’s money, that’s a fine of over $2,700. Women’s suffrage had to wait decades longer.

In 1940, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected to a third term in office, making him the first and still only president to ever be elected to more than two terms. The 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, prevents this from happening again.

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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on November 5. Have a safe Thursday.

Major League Baseball’s unpopular winter sequel – Lockout II: The Reckoning – has thrown much of its offseason machinations into flux. Not only must teams conduct a significant amount of their business before the industry’s expected shutdown Dec. 1 but do so uncertain what economic system will prevail upon its restart.

The notion of a salary cap – even with a year to ease it in – would greatly alter the game’s economic structure. Chasing free agents comes with some uncertainty.

But what about trades?

Great question. Even a swap that’s decidedly not cash-neutral shouldn’t hamper a team’s flexibility years out. And with most teams committing to landing in a contending-but-not-dominant position – 24 of 30 teams finished with at least 75 wins – filling needs by taking someone else’s ill-fitting part fits that mold.

With the offseason kicking into gear with next week’s general manager’s meetings but less than a month before the lockout, a breakdown of eight American League players who might fit in a trade package this winter:

Isaac Paredes, 3B, Astros

He’s a two-time All-Star with five seasons of 20 to 31 home runs. Yet Paredes, who turns 28 in February, may find himself on his fifth team in seven seasons come 2027. Such is life for an infielder with power but perhaps not the greatest defensive chops. And presuming Carlos Correa come back healthy, the Astros have a little glut on the infield.

Paredes is coming off possibly his best all-around season, hitting 25 homers and raising his OBP to a career-high .360. His strikeout rate also fell to a career-low 13.4%.

The Astros picked up his $13.55 million club option for 2027, which likely represents a savings on what he’d earn in his final year of salary arbitration. Paredes is eligible for free agency after this season.

Celebrate Brewers' World Series with commemorative book

Bryce Miller, RHP, Mariners

Seems like the Mariners couldn’t get rid of their starting pitching glut if they tried. While last year brought a trade of Luis Castillo, it also saw the full emergence of right-hander Emerson Hancock, who made 25 starts and led the rotation with a 3.57 ERA.

Miller, 28, was limited to 21 starts after an oblique injury, got off to an excellent start and then faded a bit in the second-half wall, pitching to a 4.17 ERA and 4.41 FIP. And rookie Kade Anderson made a late-season debut and should be ready for a full season.

It’s true – you can never have too much starting pitching. The Mariners, though, are perpetually starved for offense and this winter is no different. Miller is entering the second of four arbitration years, is estimated by MLB Trade Rumors to earn just $3.9 million in 2027 and then two more seasons of club control. He’s two years removed from a 180-inning season in which he posted a 2.94 ERA.

A solid trade chip, a club with needs.

Griffin Jax, RHP, Rays

Simply a decent pitcher entering his final season before free agency on a club that tends to maximize its assets before they can walk.

On one hand, it’d be a drag for the Rays to spin off Jax after nurturing him thoughtfully this year from a reliever to a guy who made 23 starts, consumed 112 innings and started the lone World Series game Tampa Bay won. The club’s also losing All-Star Nick Martinez to free agency. And maybe the new ownership group would prefer keeping the good vibes going from their solid AL pennant club.

Yet the Rays have probably already ID’d their next Martinez, their next Jax. And the original could fetch a decent return while helping one of many pitching-starved clubs out there.

Jo Adell, OF/DH, Guardians

Now this would be kind of a bummer.

Adell got a taste of the high life in Cleveland, playing a key role on their AL Central champion and league runner-up squad after years spent in playoff-less Anaheim. He’s currently slated to get a season’s worth of at-bats at DH and probably the outfield.

But like the Rays, the Guardians stay fluid. Adell’s at-bats could conceivably go to rookie Petey Halpin, with the DH spot passing through a handful of players. And it should be noted that franchise stalwart Steven Kwan, like Adell, will be a free agent after this year; Kwan has been on the trade block before and could be placed there again.

Yet Kwan is coming off a 5.3-WAR season and more integral to the Guardians’ whole thing. They’ll keep most of it together.

Zach Neto, SS, Angels

Crazy thing about the Angels: They do all they can to remain irrelevant yet some really good players are racking up service time while nobody’s looking. Enter Neto, who has nearly four years of service and enters his first of three seasons before free agency.

The Angels’ mini-teardown netted them shortstop prospect Arjun Nimmala, who has looked terrific since arriving from Toronto in the Jose Soriano deal. Neto slammed 27 homers last year and posted a 5.2-WAR season. Perhaps he’d be better suited at second or third base than shortstop, but he’d make a good team great adding his bat to the middle infield.

Would the in-limbo Angels pull the trigger? Perhaps once the lockout is over with, Stan Kroenke controls the team and a GM is in place. But Neto would be in demand sooner, for certain.

Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

A handful of infield injuries finally allowed Mayo the runway to work through the swing-and-miss woes a 24-year-old, 6-5 power hitter might go through. The results were enticing: 24 home runs in 412 at-bats, 16 of them off lefties, against whom he posted a 1.105 OPS.

Baltimore, though, may again have an infield glut, with Jordan Westburg coming back from Tommy John surgery and Pete Alonso locked in at first base for four more seasons. It’d be dicey giving up five years of control of a potentially dominant power hitter.

Yet perhaps Mayo’s true ceiling is platoon DH, or something like that. And the club needs sock in the outfield and some pitching help. An interesting potential challenge trade.

Luis García Jr., INF, Yankees

Garcia answered the call when the Yankees put out an APB for bats at the trade deadline with Aaron Judge shelved. His OPS dipped from .873 with Washington to .736 in 43 games with the Yankees, but it all added up to a career-high 30-homer season for a guy who doesn’t turn 27 until May.

But the Yankees have an entire winter – plus however long the lockout lasts – to reconstruct their roster. By the letter of the law, they’ll lose contact with Judge on Dec. 1 as he recovers from a calf strain that knocked him out of the playoffs.

Yet if all goes well, Judge is back in right field, perhaps Giancarlo Stanton is healthy, perhaps Ben Rice scoots back over to first base, with Paul Goldschmidt re-signed as a right-handed pairing with Rice. That would make García relatively redundant, and it’s not like he set the Bronx ablaze with his two-month cameo.

No, perhaps he can be spun off for a team needing a first- or second baseman. García has just one more year before free agency so the return wouldn’t be huge. But he could help patch some roster holes for a club losing relievers David Bednar and Paul Blackburn, infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. and center fielder Trent Grisham to free agency.

Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox

He’s kind of been a walking trade rumor the past couple years, but this could be the time he goes. Duran, 30, is projected to earn $11.1 million through arbitration, and is one of 17 (gulp) arbitration-eligible Red Sox. Sure, not all of them will be tendered contracts, but it’s nonetheless quite a run on John Henry’s private equity stash.

Duran’s offense has taken an extreme haircut since he led the majors in doubles (48) and triples (14) and won All-Star Game MVP in 2024. He posted an .834 OPS that year, but it’s since tumbled to .774 and .627, his 76 adjusted mark last year well below league average.

Yet Duran is one of the game’s best baserunners and still ranks well in outs above average. He’s got two years before free agency, and an acquiring team could simply non-tender him if his bat doesn’t pick up in 2027.

Certainly not a blockbuster in the offing, but an intriguing figure to ponder.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 8 high-impact MLB trade targets who could shake up uncertain offseason

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I realize that I’m cheating a bit here because it was probably more on folks’ minds yesterday, but 17 years and one day ago, the Yankees won the 2009 World Series. In one sense, it’s not that long ago. Talk to your local Knicks or Jets fan if you want to hear about a real drought. But the Knicks and Jets also don’t make nearly as big a deal about their history as the Yankees do, and they also keep giving themselves bites at the apple while constantly coming up short — especially in the past decade under Aaron Boone. Anyway, we’re now at the point where there are kids in college who have no concrete memories of the Yankees winning. Zoinks. The living embodiments only make it feel more distant.

Today on the site, Kevin will grade Gerrit Cole’s 2026 season and Jonathan will celebrate the 53rd birthday of one of the key members of that aforementioned 2009 championship team, Johnny Damon. Later, Andrés will ponder the fate of Jasson Domínguez.

Questions/Prompts

1. How aggressive do you think the Yankees should be on the free agent relief market beyond David Bednar? Or do you not consider it a priority?

2. How are you adjusting to Daylight Savings Time this fall?

Five recently retired umpires including Joe West – who officiated more games than anyone in baseball history – have filed a federal lawsuit against Major League Baseball claiming they were wrongfully underpaid in the MLB umpires’ retirement income plan.

The 44-page complaint was filed Sept. 29 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York.

There were at least two dozen retired umpires who were not provided the proper sum of money in their pension plan (“The American and National Leagues of Professional Baseball Clubs Retirement Income Plan for Umpires’’), according to attorney Paul Holmes, who’s representing the umpires along with Mark DeBofsky. Yet, only five umpires are part of this suit – all who have at least 25 years of major-league service and retired after the age of 65. They were underpaid the most, Holmes said, a total potential loss of about $2 million.

The umpires involved in the suit are West, Gerry Davis, Tom Hallion, Larry Vanover and Jerry Layne, who umpired a combined 21,063 regular-season games over 179 seasons, and retired after 2021. All five umpires were “paid far less than the full benefit earned under the Plan," according to the lawsuit. West and Vanover received their pension benefit in a lump-sum payment while the three others received annual payments.

“Those five are the ones who basically were the most adversely affected," Holmes told USA TODAY Sports. “They retired in their mid-to-late 60’s, and under the unique structure of the umpires' pension plan, MLB tried to short-change them."

MLB declined to comment because it’s an active lawsuit.

The umpires went through an administrative process in which their appeals were denied after complaints that began in November 2021, but when an MLB executive informed the umpires that “if you don’t like it, sue us," they decided to file suit.

The suit claims that there was a legal defect and misapplication of the retirement plan in calculating benefits, “including, but not limited to, a failure to provide actuarial increases to plan benefit amounts when the commencement of plan benefits is deferred beyond the umpire’s normal retirement age."

It also reads: “MLB was trying to hide the greater benefits under the 2005 Benefit Table after age 62 to encourage retirement at that age and to discourage umpires from continuing to work for MLB beyond age 62."

“MLB came up with a very unique and confusing benefit formula," Holmes said. “So, it was hard to tell what was exactly being promised. They then implemented several different administrative procedures and flat-out made mistakes.

“We’re pretty sure they were not accidents, they were intentional. When the same mistake is made for multiple people, over and over again, especially when we pointed out the mistakes, it’s not a mistake. Once is a mistake, ten to 12 times is a pattern.

“It was intentional underpayment hoping they wouldn’t get caught."

MLB readily admitted mistakes, Holmes said, and made an offer to reimburse the umpires for some of the money lost, but the umpires rejected the offer, believing it was inadequate.

“The table schedule in pension amounts were wrong," Holmes said. There were reductions, showing benefits going up until 62, and then down for three years. You can’t have one high pension at one age and then lower as you get older. Multiple umpires were paid the wrong form of payments.

“It was a problem that never got fixed.’’

Follow Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Retired umpires sue MLB claiming they were underpaid pension money

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have yet another budding star developing into one of the sport’s best prospects, as Wyatt Sanford has earned an invitation to the Arizona Fall League All-Star team.

Sanford has been one of the best hitters in the AFL this season and that started from his very first contest with the Glendale Desert Dogs. In his first game in Arizona the Frisco Texas product went deep for his first homer of the Fall league. Sanford would match that power with the longest homer of his career on October 22 when he hit a 454 foot shot to centerfield off a 95 mph fastball. Sanford’s power has been on display all year as he went from only hitting five last season to clobbering 19 in 2026.

In addition to his power at the plate, Sanford has been a consistent threat at the plate and has been very efficient during his time in the desert. The 20-year old shortstop is hitting 283/.386/.417 through 15 games. In that span he’s scored 13 runs and has had 17 hits, two doubles, nine RBIs and was walked nine times. For a predominantly defensive first infielder, he’s grown very quickly into a confident hitter.

Wyatt Sanford has been named a Fall Star in the Arizona Fall League.

Catch up with Wyatt talking to @AlexJStumpf while therehttps://t.co/yoyMdNaYLDhttps://t.co/9y4yJIgidf

— 𝐍𝐒𝟗 (@NorthShoreNine) November 4, 2026

Sanford spoke with Alex Stumpf of North Shore Nine and discussed his development as a hitter and the adjustments he made in the weight room and at the plate.

“This year was definitely a big confidence boost for sure. It felt really good coming up to the plate with an extra tool this year and I think it’s just going to propel me in my career with the years coming,” Sanford said. “Working on becoming a complete hitter down here. Had a lot of swing-and-misses here so trying to refine that while I’m here and if I can refine that, I’ll be a good little player.”

As the fifth-ranked Pirates’ prospect, there will be a lot of eyes on Sanford, especially after the showcase he’s put on in the AFL. He was the only Pirate to be selected to the AFL All-Star team this season.

The 20th annual AFL Fall-Stars Game will take place on Sunday, November 8, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Scottsdale.

MLB lockout tracker: What CBA talks mean for Phillies baseball originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Free agency opened Monday, beginning an offseason that could be interrupted before the Phillies finish reshaping their roster.

Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. If the league and MLB Players Association do not reach another deal, owners are expected to impose a lockout that would halt major-league signings, trades and communication between teams and players.

That would not immediately cancel games. The previous lockout lasted 99 days before the sides reached an agreement in March 2022 and preserved a full 162-game schedule. Here is a complete explanation of how another lockout would work.

But the two sides remain far apart, primarily because MLB continues to push for a salary cap and floor that the union refuses to accept.

That disagreement carries particular importance in Philadelphia. The Phillies have consistently operated above the luxury-tax threshold under managing partner John Middleton, and MLB identified them as one of eight clubs that would have exceeded the cap in its latest proposal.

It also adds uncertainty to an offseason in which Philadelphia has needs at catcher, in the outfield and throughout its bullpen. Here are 20 free agents who could fit at different prices.

This tracker will be updated throughout negotiations, with the newest developments appearing first.

Last updated: Nov. 4

Where negotiations stand

• Current agreement expires: Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET
• Latest MLB proposal: A $258.2 million salary cap and $180.2 million floor beginning in 2028
• MLBPA response: The union remains firmly opposed to any cap
• Phillies impact: They could operate under the existing luxury-tax system in 2027 but would have to prepare for a hard ceiling the following year

Nov. 3: MLB pushes proposed cap to 2028; union rejects it

MLB’s revised offer did not remove the salary cap. It pushed its proposed implementation back one year.

Under the league’s latest proposal, the existing luxury-tax and revenue-sharing systems would remain in place for 2027. A hard cap of $258.2 million and floor of $180.2 million would then begin in 2028, accompanied by a 50-50 split of defined baseball revenue and centralized media revenue.

Teams could initially operate at 90 percent of the floor, or approximately $162.2 million, but would be required to reach the full amount over a three-year period.

Using 2026 payrolls, MLB estimated that eight clubs — including the Phillies — would have to reduce spending by a combined $528 million. Twelve others would need to add a combined $636 million to reach the floor.

Several other changes would begin in 2027 under the proposal:

• Players who have reached age 30 could qualify for free agency after five seasons rather than six, although their current club would retain an opportunity to keep them for another year.
• The qualifying-offer system would be eliminated for other free agents.
• The minimum salary would rise to $1 million for players with at least two years of service and $900,000 for those with less.
• The pre-arbitration bonus pool would increase from $50 million to $65 million.
• Optional assignments would be reduced from five to four, with additional limits placed on roster movement.
• Players would become eligible for the Rule 5 draft one year earlier.

Earlier provisions limiting free-agent contracts and eliminating new deferrals would also remain part of MLB’s overall proposal.

The MLBPA rejected the revision, saying a transition year would not change its objections to a cap. The union argued that MLB’s system would reduce player compensation, threaten guaranteed contracts through escrow and cut amateur signing bonuses.

For the Phillies, the delay is significant. MLB’s original proposal would have required them to become cap-compliant immediately in 2027. The revised version would allow them to spend under the familiar luxury-tax system for another season.

It would not make this winter’s decisions irrelevant to a future cap. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez are each under contract through at least 2028. Any multiyear addition the Phillies make this offseason would also remain on their books when the proposed system begins.

Zack Wheeler’s contract expires after 2027, meaning his $42 million average annual value would come off the books before the proposed cap takes effect.

Oct. 8: MLB proposes shorter season and different postseason format

MLB proposed reducing the regular season from 162 games to 154 beginning in 2029, with one scheduled off day each week. Player salaries would not be reduced, although contractual benchmarks would be adjusted proportionally.

The eight eliminated regular-season games would be offset partly by expanding the Division Series from five games to seven. MLB also proposed staggering postseason games to reduce weekday afternoon windows.

A more immediate change would begin in 2027. The No. 3 seed in each league would choose whether to face the fifth or sixth seed in the Wild Card Series. After that round, the No. 1 seed would select which Wild Card winner it wanted to play.

The Phillies entered the 2026 postseason as the National League’s sixth seed. Under the proposed format, their opponent would have selected them rather than being determined automatically by the bracket.

The union said it would review the scheduling changes but objected to MLB making the proposal contingent upon the acceptance of a cap-and-floor system.

Aug. 27: MLB proposes weekly rosters and condensed free agency

MLB presented several changes aimed at reducing roster movement.

Teams would set their 26-man roster each Monday and generally be unable to make changes during the week, with exceptions for injuries, trades, waiver claims and family leave. Clubs would be allowed to carry 14 pitchers, one more than the current limit.

The injured-list minimums would shift to one full week for position players and two weeks for pitchers. The 60-day injured list would become a 12-week list.

MLB also proposed a new offseason calendar. Following the option-decision period, teams could negotiate with free agents but could not finalize agreements until the opening day of the Winter Meetings. A concentrated signing window would last until Dec. 21, followed by a freeze on major-league transactions until the first Monday in February.

The MLBPA argued that compressing free agency would reduce player leverage by forcing players to compete for contracts within the same narrow window.

All of MLB’s proposed changes were tied to the union accepting a salary cap.

July 21: Players respond with their amateur draft proposal

The MLBPA proposed retaining the current 20-round domestic draft and preserving eligibility for high school and junior-college players. It also sought to make college sophomores eligible.

Other elements included:

• Increasing the amount available for signing bonuses
• Continuing to allow players to negotiate their bonuses
• Preserving competitive-balance selections for lower-revenue clubs
• Allowing teams to trade draft picks under certain restrictions
• Moving the draft from July back to June
• Providing additional bonus-pool money to lower-revenue teams that reach the postseason

The proposal was the union’s response to MLB’s attempt to overhaul both the domestic and international entry systems.

July 14: The divide becomes public in Philadelphia

No formal proposal was exchanged during All-Star week, but commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer outlined the growing divide in separate news conferences in Philadelphia.

Manfred said the owners were more unified than at any point during his time in baseball. Meyer rejected the league’s argument that MLB needed a cap to preserve competitive balance, pointing instead to rising attendance, television audiences and franchise values.

Their comments made clear that the cap was not one of several secondary issues. It had become the central fight.

July 1: Union proposes roster and data protections

The MLBPA proposed expanding active rosters from 26 to 28 players for the first 15 days of the regular season, with a 14-pitcher maximum.

The union also sought to:

• Reduce optional assignments from five per season to three
• Allow teams to use the 60-day injured list before the tender deadline
• Accelerate Rule 5 eligibility and ensure the draft is held every year
• Protect the salary and service time of pitchers optioned around the All-Star break or after lengthy appearances
• Give players access to non-proprietary performance data and video collected by their clubs

Those protections would affect how the Phillies handle prospects and pitchers moving between Philadelphia and Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

June 25: MLB proposes limits on free-agent contracts

MLB added proposed restrictions on individual contracts to its cap-and-floor framework.

A player signing with a new organization could receive no more than five free-agent years, with his first-year salary limited to 15 percent of the cap. A player remaining with his current club could receive six years and 16 percent under a proposed “cornerstone player” provision.

Based on MLB’s original cap figure, the maximum guarantees would have been approximately $202 million over five years with a new team or $265 million over six years with the incumbent club. Annual salaries could increase by no more than 5 percent, and new deferred contracts would be prohibited.

MLB also accepted elements of the union’s opening proposal, including earlier free agency for certain players and the elimination of the current qualifying-offer system.

The Phillies recently declined to extend Alec Bohm the $23.15 million qualifying offer. Under MLB’s proposal, that mechanism and the accompanying draft-pick penalties would no longer exist.

The MLBPA responded that the potential gains were tied to accepting a cap and accompanying contract restrictions. Existing contracts would not be changed, but future deals resembling those signed by Harper and Turner would no longer be possible under the league’s proposal.

June 18: MLB proposes separate domestic and international drafts

MLB proposed separate 12-round domestic and international drafts, each beginning with a $200 million signing-bonus pool. Both would use hard-slot bonuses, although teams could trade selections under certain restrictions.

Under the domestic proposal, high school and junior-college players younger than 20 would no longer be draft eligible. The international signing age would rise from 17 to 18.

The MLBPA opposed the plan, estimating that it would remove more than $1 billion from amateur compensation over five years, including a $400 million reduction from 2026 to 2027. The union also objected to eliminating an entire international signing period during the transition.

May 28: MLB makes its initial cap-and-floor proposal

One day after the union presented its opening economic package, MLB proposed a seven-year agreement running through 2033.

The original plan included a $245.3 million cap and $171.2 million floor beginning in 2027. MLB said 12 clubs would have to add $617 million in combined payroll, while eight clubs — including the Phillies — would have to remove $578 million.

The cap would be calculated using luxury-tax payrolls, which include player benefits in addition to contract average annual values. MLB also proposed sharing defined baseball revenue equally with players and centralizing media revenue.

The union opposed the offer, arguing that MLB’s definitions of revenue and expenses would reduce the players’ existing share despite the advertised 50-50 split.

The Nov. 3 proposal superseded the original cap and floor amounts but retained the basic structure.

May 27: Players present their opening economic proposal

The MLBPA opened formal economic bargaining without proposing a hard cap.

Its plan included:

• Raising the major-league minimum from $780,000 to $1.5 million in 2027
• Increasing the base luxury-tax threshold from $244 million to $300 million
• Expanding salary-arbitration eligibility and guaranteeing arbitration salaries
• Increasing the pre-arbitration bonus pool from $50 million to $180 million
• Allowing qualified free agency after five seasons for players who have reached age 30
• Eliminating the qualifying offer for traditional free agents
• Creating a “competitive integrity tax” for clubs that remain below payroll benchmarks
• Guaranteeing each small-market club at least $240 million in annual revenue
• Requiring revenue-sharing recipients to use those funds toward improving their teams

MLB responded that the proposal would weaken competitive-balance protections and increase the spending gap between clubs. The union maintained that its plan would preserve the sport’s open market while penalizing organizations that collect shared revenue without investing in their rosters.

May 12: Formal negotiations begin

MLB and the MLBPA formally opened negotiations more than six months before the current agreement’s expiration.

The early start has not produced agreement on the largest issue. MLB continues to condition many of its proposals on the installation of a cap and floor. The union continues to treat a cap as a nonstarter.

Unless that changes before Dec. 1, the Phillies’ offseason could be paused before their roster is complete.

Tate Southisene is rapidly becoming an extremely exciting prospect and it would not be a surprise if he was a consensus top 50 prospect in baseball to start 2027. That’s a fantastic return for what was a well-underslot pick in 2025 that enabled the team to go out and get prospects like Briggs McKenzie and Connor Essenberg in the later rounds, who are also looking extremely promising. Southisene becoming a top prospect in his own right while also enabling the acquisition of other top prospects is an absolute coup and seems to be the keystone to a very promising 2025 draft class for Atlanta.

The second basemen with the brightest futures ⭐️

More fantasy baseball coverage from BA's James Anderson:https://t.co/bFjVJYvFAKpic.twitter.com/zKx16VGrcS

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) November 4, 2026

Braves News

Tate Southisene and Briggs McKenzie were named to the Fall Stars team in the Arizona Fall League.

The Braves are reportedly set to return their entire coaching staff, despite questions regarding baserunning, offensive production, and ABS decision-making in terms of coaching.

Sam reviewed the brief tenure of Ian Hamilton in Atlanta.

MLB News

Take a look ahead at the next class of free agents for the offseason following the 2027 season,

The Angels are in a holding pattern of being unable to hire a new GM until their sale is approved.

A serious bout of catcher injuries struck the Atlanta Braves during the first half of the season, and desperate times called for desperate measures. One of those measures, of the band-aid variety, ended up being Austin Wynns, who spent two weeks with the club in June and appeared in six games.

How Acquired

The Braves added Wynns in the middle of the season, while both Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy were down with injuries. They sent cash considerations to the Angels in exchange for Wynns’ services, and designated longtime third-string catcher Chadwick Tromp in a corresponding move. The reasoning was a bit weird, though it was all meant to be a temporary fix anyway: Sandy Leon was getting the bulk of playing time anyway, so the Braves opted to acquire a backup-to-Leon instead of using Tromp in that role for whatever reason.

One silly thing about the Wynns acquisition is that the Braves kind of prompted it with their own DFA of Jonah Heim earlier in the season. The Athletics, who acquired Wynns in a midseason trade in 2025, DFAed him three days after trading for Heim. He was released and signed with the Angels, but didn’t get promoted to their big league team. Three weeks later, the Braves traded cash considerations (which is what they received for Heim) to Anaheim for Wynns.

What were the expectations?

There weren’t any real expectations, to be blunt.

Coming into 2026, the 35-year-old Wynns had a career 74 wRC+ that featured a pretty sizable xwOBA overperformance (.282 wOBA, .265 xwOBA) in 783 career PAs spanning parts of six major league seasons. He had never topped 180 PAs in a single season, nor 1.0 fWAR. He came kind of close in 2025 riding a massive xwOBA overperformance (.365 wOBA, .295 xwOBA), though. He also wasn’t highly regarded defensively, with just one good defensive year (2023) behind the plate and some substantially below-average performance in other seasons.

He wasn’t doing much of anything in 2026, either — a -47 wRC+ (yes, a negative sign) in 43 PAs in Sacramento before getting released. Basically, the Braves acquired a guy who had 0.6 career fWAR in 826 PAs at the big league level.

While it’s not entirely clear what the Braves were thinking in swapping Tromp for Wynns, it was a fairly inconsequential shuffle to try and survive until Baldwin and Murphy returned.

2026 results

Wynns was only with the Braves for two weeks, acquired on June 3, recalled on June 4, and granted free agency on June 16, the day after Baldwin returned from the Injured List.

During his time in Atlanta, he appeared in six games and was 1-for-14 at the plate. He had just one single and no walks, leaving him with a sad .071/.071/.071 slash line that was somehow even worse than his -47 wRC+ with the Athletics. In what would be his final game with the team, he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against the Mets. It wasn’t much better behind the plate, where he allowed six stolen bases and didn’t throw a single runner out, and lost nearly a run of defensive value despite barely playing, even after accounting for the massive catcher positional adjustment. In total, he put up -0.3 fWAR in 14 PAs, which by far his worst stint-with-a-team-in-a-season of his career, small sample size and all.

At least the baseball gods threw him a bit of a bone: after he rejected the Braves’ outright assignment and became a free agent, he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers, spent a month playing in their minor league system, and then got promoted for a month on the big league roster. In 32 PAs in Arlington, he somehow managed a .312 wOBA with a .195 xwOBA, and his defense improved-ish. All in all, Wynns finished 2026 with -0.7 fWAR in 89 PAs, but it would’ve been worse without that stint in the Lone Star State. The Rangers outrighted him in August, and he once again elected free agency, and spent the tail end of the season in the minors with the Cubs.

It wasn’t a fun season for Wynns, as he tied his career-worst in fWAR, had a sub-100 PA season for just the third time, and had a career-worst wRC+ (2).

What went right?

Per Statcast, his defense was commensurate with being in the 73rd percentile in blocks above average? That’s about the only good thing you can say for his season, and it’s largely negated by the fact that he was below average in caught stealing above average, framing and pop time.

In somewhat fitting fashion, Wynns’ “best” game as a Brave was the beginning of their downfall — that 6-5, extra-inning loss to the White Sox. Wynns’ hit was a one-out single that put runners on the corners on with one out while the Braves already had a one-run lead. They didn’t end up scoring in the frame, in part due to a fielder’s choice that threw the runner trying to go home out, and, well, you know how that game and the rest of June went for the Braves.

What went wrong?

Not to be harsh, but, pretty much everything. He wasn’t expected to be a plus bat but one could have at least hoped he could’ve improved on his -47 wRC+ from earlier in the year. That’s how you get a career-worst year.

If you had to pick a specific game from his six as a Brave, well, the day after that horrible loss to the White Sox, Wynns really faceplanted. He flew out with the bases loaded and two out in the second. Then he flew out with the go-ahead run on second and two out in the fourth. Then, after the leadoff man reached in the seventh and Wynns represented the tying run, he lined out. He didn’t get another chance in that game, as Eli White pinch-hit for him and drew a walk in the ninth, representing the tying run, but the Braves lost that game, 2-1.

2027 Outlook

With Wynns set to turn 36 in December, it seems quite possible this is the end of the road for his major league career. He may get another chance with a team if they pick up a rash of catcher injuries, but it’s hard to imagine that would be the Braves again. There are also enough catchers out there on the waiver wire that a guy who neither hits nor fields the catcher position particularly well doesn’t seem like anyone’s first choice, but… the Braves did deliberately acquire him last year, so you never know.