SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MAY 18: The mascot of the Seattle Mariners, Mariner Moose, gestures during the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park on May 18, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Maddy Grassy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Diamondbacks are the hottest team in baseball. Full stop. They have won nine of their last ten. They’ve done it with great starting pitching, better than average offense, and they’ve even mixed in some spectacular defense from time to time. Yes, it comes against two of the worst teams in baseball, but even when you’re playing bad teams, you still have to beat them, and to do so in such a stretch is both impressive and exactly what they needed to do. They’ve got to keep the momentum up against the top teams now, but this is exactly the kick start they needed.
They go from the bottom of the NL West, to the top of the AL West. The AL West is slightly less competitive than the NL West, though, so that isn’t as scary as it could be. The Mariners are currently first in their division, but that only requires a 28-29 record at the moment. They’re on a hot streak of their own, however. They just swept division rival Oakland. We’ll see which sweep of a sub-.500 team holds up more.
Game 1 — 5/29, 7:10 PM: Zac Gallen (-0.3 bWAR, 3-4, 4.80 ERA/85 ERA+, 1.43 WHIP) vs. George Kirby (1.0 bWAR, 5-4, 3.54 ERA/110 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP)
Someone should do the math on how much money each mediocre start costs Gallen. At the rate he’s going, it’s going to be a lot. His hopes of a bounce back campaign to secure the multi-year, nine figure contract is waning, and he just hasn’t done much of anything particularly of note this season. The month of May has been especially rough after a decent start to the season in April. He has given up more than four earned runs in three of his five starts so far, and gave up three in an additional start just for good measure.
George Kirby has had a solidly above average season so far, but he’s been on a bit of a downward trend lately. In seven of his first nine starts, he held opponents to two runs or less, and he did not give up more than four. He also has been consistently pitching into the sixth inning or longer. However, his last two starts against the Padres and the Royals have been out of the ordinary. HE gave up six earned runs to the Padres, and five runs, three earned, to the Royals. The Padres game he got bit by the home run ball, but the Royals it seems it was just the errors that held him back. The Diamondbacks have power, and they have the speed to force misplays, so they’ll be looking to recreate those games.
Game 2 — 5/30, 7:10 PM: Ryne Nelson (-0.3 bWAR, 2-3, 4.65 ERA/88 ERA+, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Bryan Woo (0.7 bWAR, 4-3, 3.82 ERA/102 ERA+, 1.03 WHIP)
Don’t look now, but Ryne Nelson has been actually rather successful in the month of May. He has an ERA of 2.36 for the month, with the crowning achievement being his eight innings of one run ball against the Rockies in his most recent start. The question becomes how sustainable it is. He has a FIP of 4.29 for the month, almost exactly two runs higher than his month of May ERA. The strikeouts are inconsistent, the walks are high, and he’s basically a guarantee for a home run per start. Not promising for long term success.
In 2026, Woo has had similar results to Kirby. About a month ago, Woo had back to back starts where he gave up seven and six runs repsectively, but beyond that, it’s been good starts. One thing to note, the only home runs he has given up this year came in those two previously mentioned bad starts. Other than that, he has kept the ball in the park all season long. He’s given up two walks in each of his last four starts, so he will give you those free base runners. The Diamondbacks should probably plan on building innings, not mashing home runs, for this one.
Game 3 — 5/31, 1:10 PM: Merrill Kelly (-0.1 bWAR, 5-3, 5.25 ERA/78 ERA+, 1.41 WHIP) vs. Bryce Miller (0.4 bWAR, 1-0, 2.25 ERA/176 ERA+, 1.00 WHIP)
After a very rough first four months, Merrill Kelly is starting to look much more like the Mainstay that we thought Hazen had signed this off season. In his most recent four starts, he has thrown at least six innings, twice going seven, and a complete game just for good measure. The Giants tagged him for a couple runs, three in their first start against him and two in their second, but nothing crazy. With how rough his first four starts were, it will take a while before the stats start to look better, but he’s making progress.
This will be Miller’s fourth game, but third start as his last appearance was actually out of the bullpen. Not much to go off of so far, of course, but early returns have been positive. He’s gone at least five innings in all of his appearances, including his relief outing, and he has yet to give up more than two runs.
Conclusion
We aren’t picking on the bottom of the standings anymore, so the Diamondbacks should expect the Mariners to put up a bit more of a fight. That being said, this is a division leader that is sub-.500. Still plenty of room for them to continue padding their win column. I expect them to take two out of three in fairly low scoring affairs.
May 8, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman (15) reacts with infielder TJ Rumfield (7) after hitting a two-run home run against the Philadelphia Phillies in the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Paul DePodesta made a name as one of Billy Beane’s acolytes during the Moneyball era and in 2004, at the age of 31 became the Dodgers’ GM. He was hounded by the musty old LA Times sportwriters (who called him “Google Boy) and local LA media for the two seasons he lasted in the job — one local radio host summoned all of his brain cell to coin the name ”Paul Stupid-desta.“ He landed on his feet with the Padres and then the Mets before leaving MLB altogether. In January 2016, he became the ”chief strategy officer” of the NFL’s Cleveland Browns and proceeded to spend 9 years further burying the wholly irrelevant franchise while introducing the NFL to SQL.
So, when the Colorado Rockies — a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2018 and has lost 629 games over the previous 7 seasons —set out to hire someone from outside the organization to run the operation, DePodesta was at the top of their list, naturally. He has similarly introduced the Rockies to Computer and it seems like it’s going… okay? They’re 20-37 as they prepare to host the loserly San Francisco Giants in Coors Field for the first time this season, and while that’s definitely not good, it’s a vast improvement over where they were a year ago. Their record through 57 games going back to 2019:
There’s bad, there’s awful, and then there’s whatever the Rockies have been. It’s not pleasant to look at and it’s only palatable when they’re losing to your favorite team. Even with the DePodesta providing his “genius” as President of Baseball Operations— and with Josh Byrnes back in the org as GM (he’d been their AGM at the turn of the century) following successful stints with the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers — they’re still the worst lineupe in the sport (81 wRC+) with the worst team ERA in the sport (5.18). Their 229 runs scored isn’t last (it’s 21st) but that’s the extent of the Coors Field effect. They still don’t hit for power (.135 ISO — 24th) or walk much (7.6 BB% — 29th) and they strike out a lot (24.3 K% — 28th). They are tied with the Giants in home runs with 49. Their team batting average of .241 is 15th, though, not too far behind the Giants’ .245 (10th).
They’re just 6-19 in May with a -70 run differential. The Giants are 9-16 with a -28.
So, while the Rockies are worse than the Giants both on paper and in reality, they’re probably a lot closer in quality than Giants fans want to admit and Rockies fans might be surprised to see.
They didn’t do much in the offseason, but their “big” acquisitions have made impacts:
INF Willi Castro (2 years, $12.8 million) hasn’t hit much (77 wRC+), but has been great on defense (+1.8 Defensive Runs Above Average)
SP Michael Lorenzen (1/$8MM) has been one of the worst starters in baseball (7.21 ERA / 5.13 FIP), but has a comically large home/road split: HOME: 10.03 ERA (2.44 WHIP), ROAD: 5.04 (1.48 WHIP).
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (1/$5.1MM) has been their most consistent starter, with a 4.01 ERA (5.33 FIP) in 11 starts.
1B TJ Rumfield (acquired in trade with Yankees) has 7 home runs and a triple slash of .281/.359/.448.
Before he hit the IL, they were getting a great contribution from starter Chase Dollander, their 1st round pick of the 2023 draft. But otherwise, the modest bounceback from the demonic 2025 season seems to be the result of tinkering at the margins as DePodesta and Byrnes assess the entire organization. Not unlike how 2019 was a transition season as Farhan Zaidi took over from Bobby Evans.
But the question is if Computer will beat No Computer in the battle for Not Last Place in the NL West. The Rockies have been last place for so long that it has started to feel like they’d achieved a tenured position. But this year, the Giants might be bad enough — and dumb enough — to unseat them from the Last Place Chair.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (22-34) at Colorado Rockies (20-37) Where: Coors Field | Denver, Colorado When: Friday at 5:40pm PT, Saturday at 6:10pm PT, Sunday at 12:10pm PT National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters Friday: Logan Webb (RHP 2-4, 5.06 ERA) vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP 2-7, 7.21 ERA) Saturday: Adrian Houser (RHP 2-4, 5.30 ERA) vs. TBD Sunday: Robbie Ray (LHP 3-6, 4.60 ERA) vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP 0-0, 5.85 ERA)
Players to watch
Rockies
Antonio Senzatela: He’s been a foil for the Giants throughout his career (5-3, 4.89 ERA) and this season might change the nature of the rivalry in that he’s transitioned from an iffy starter to a dominate reliever. In 33 IP (16 G), he has a 1.36 ERA (3.19 FIP) and allowed just 2 home runs (career 1.1 HR/9). Conventiently, Michael Baumann wrote a nice piece about Senzatela this morning for FanGraphs.
If you take “believe” to mean “think Senzatela will continue to put up Prime Dennis Eckersley numbers,” there’s reason to be skeptical. Senzatela’s running a .198 BABIP, an 87.8% strand rate, and a 5.4% HR/FB rate, which is a little over a third of what it usually is. All of those are big, honking regression indicators.
But where should we expect Senzatela to regress to? Well, his FIP is 3.19 and his xERA is 3.09. Not only are those numbers really good for a multi-inning reliever, full stop, they’re also about half of what he was running last year. That’s a huge improvement. He’s like a new pitcher.
So what’s different?
The Rockies have done some weird stuff with bullpen roles this season (pre-injury Chase Dollander’s stint as the world’s greatest bulk reliever comes to mind), and they’ve been similarly creative with Senzatela. He’s faced at least four batters in all 16 of his appearances this year, and recorded five or more outs on 14 occasions. He’s yet to pitch on back-to-back days, and he’s turned over the lineup more often (five times) than he’s pitched on just one day’s rest.
The piece goes on to highlight how he throws a great fastball and more than one fastball: a four-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter, which opponents have hit just .143 against.
This will be an interesting series because the Rockies’ formal closer, Victor Vodnik, has been on the IL since 5/20 with right ulnar nere inflammation. Dollander, who has also relieved, is on the IL. It’s not as though the Rockies had a great bullpen before, but it’s a little dinged up.
TJ Rumfield: The offseason acquisition has been day to day recently after a hit by pitch on May 25th. Prior to the injury, he was hitting .308/.400/.500 in May with 4 homers and 3 doubles, with 13 strikeouts against 9 walks. Pretty close to a Three True Outcomes player who would be one of the biggest threats in the Rockies’ lineup with Mickey Moniak on the IL. Otherwise, it’s last yaer’s All-Star and Silver slugger Hunter Goodman who is the real remaining power threat (12 HR).
Tanner Gordon: His third major league start ever came back in 2024 against a barely recognizable Giants lineup:
DH Jorge Soler RF Mike Yastrzemski CF Heliot Ramos LF Michael Conforto SS Tyler Fitzgerald 3B Matt Chapman 2B Brett Wisely 1B David Villar C Curt Casali SP Hayden Birdsong
He gave up 4 runs in 6 innings but struck out 5 and walked 0. Last season, he started 15 games for the Rockies and… it didn’t go well (6.33 ERA). His first 7 appearances this year were in relief, but his last appearance was against the Dodgers in LA. He allowed just 1 run on 6 hits in 5 innings of work, striking out 3 and walking 1.
Giants
Rafael Devers: He has 3 homers in 8 career games at Coors, making a triple slash of .229/.315/.454. His 0-for-4 in Wednesday’s game didn’t damage his hot May too much. He’s at .287/.333/.564 (.897 OPS) through the first 25 games of the month. Can he start another hot streak in these three games?
Jung Hoo Lee: He’s set to be activated off the IL today and for good reason. He has a career .911 OPS against Colorado, but in Coors Field, he’s hitting .357/.455/.539 (.990) in 33 PA. Not a robust sample size, but maybe a great way for him to step into a hot streak right off the IL.
Logan Webb: On the flip side, this is a tough place for a pitcher to come off the IL, but the Giants need Webb to get that ace-like performance going ASAP. In 10 career starts at Coors, he’s got a 4.37 ERA. The Rockies have a team groundball rate of 42%, which is 14th in MLB, so it might not be that easy for Webb to get the groundballs he needs in order to get out of long innings. On the other hand, they have just a 37.1% flyball rate, one of the worst in the sport (24th) and their HR to flyball rate of 9.5% is also nearer to the bottom third of the sport (19th). It could go either way, which only means that if Webb is right, he should be able to give the Giants a solid start.
Tony Vitello watch
His opponent in the Rockies dugout is Warren Schaeffer, who was a Rockies farmhand turned coach who wound up on the major league coaching staff in 2023 before taking over as interim manager from the deposed Bud Black. I only bring this up because in the first couple of months of the season it has seemed as though the least experienced managers still have an edge over Vitello simply by having been around the major leagues more. That doesn’t mean Vitello might never become the type of success he was in college ball, but it suggests that aura isn’t transferrable. Or, at least, there’s an exchange rate.
If you remember, Coors Field is where Buster Posey first met Tony Vitello, and it was this meeting that Andrew Baggarly remembered when coming up with a list of managerial candidates following Bob Melvin’s dismissal. Does this stadium hold a special place in Vitello’s memory or has it become a house of horrors for him as it has for the Giants over the years?
Prediction time
Last time out, I predicted that the Giants would not get swept by the Diamondbacks, so, what do I know? Also, what an embarrassment. I thought the Giants could win 1 game at home against a division rival. Oh well. Lesson learned. This time, I’ll predict that the Giants will hit at least 5 home runs in this series.
Jace Avina of the Somerset Patriots is present before a Minor League Baseball game at TD Bank Ballpark in Bridgewater, United States, on May 15, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
As much as some people seem to deny it, the Yankees’ player development has taken tremendous strides over the last several years and is generating value all throughout the 20 rounds that the team gets in each year’s MLB Draft.
Every year, there’s a new prospect that seemingly comes out of nowhere to shoot up the minor leagues or become interesting enough to become trade bait. We’ve seen Ben Rice rise from a 12th-round pick to a star, we’ve seen Cam Schlittler go from a seventh-rounder to a Cy Young candidate, and we’ve seen Will Warren progress nicely from his origins as an eighth-round pick out of Southeast Louisiana.
Even guys like Dillon Lewis, Dylan Jasso, and Brendan Jones, three position players who massively overperformed their draft positions, combined to make up a trade package that got the Yankees a high-upside arm in Ryan Weathers. Regardless of whether these players ever play in pinstripes, they can produce value.
So who could be the next player to join this crop of players? Here are five candidates from all around the diamond:
Jackson Lovich
It’s not every day that you see a shortstop with considerable game power, but that is what the Yankees have in Lovich, who they selected in the 16th round under 11 months ago out of Missouri. If you want to see who could move through the minor leagues in the fashion that Rice did a few years ago, Lovich is the best bet.
The 6-foot-3 right-handed hitter made his professional debut last August, where he excelled in six games with Single-A Tampa over the course of 10 days, going a blistering 14-for-22 with six extra-base hits, four walks, and three stolen bases. He started 2026 on the injured list, but made his season debut just a week later.
He’s gone through the ebbs and flows of a minor leaguer in his first full season, opening the season on fire before enduring a prolonged slump at the end of April. He’s wrapping up a stellar May that’s seeing him slash .362/.438/.797 through Thursday night, including a three-homer game last Wednesday.
Lovich leads the Florida State League with 11 home runs and is third with a 162 wRC+. He posts well above-average barrel and hard-hit rates, while also displaying great speed and athleticism, with 11 stolen bases while splitting time at third base and shortstop. It’s more likely he mans the hot corner as he climbs the minor league ladder, but the longer he keeps getting reps at short, the better.
Here's every Minor League shortstop to have multiple 113+ MPH barrels in their ENTIRE MiLB career.
There are multiple areas that the 22-year-old can still improve upon. His game power in all fields is extremely impressive, but he’s got the James Wood disease of being unable to harness his raw power into launching fly balls to the pull side. His Pull Air% is just 6.5 percent.
Another area he’s lagging behind is his overall contact rates, as he is striking out 29 percent of the time with mediocre chase and whiff rates. There’s some vulnerability against non-fastballs, and his Z-Contact% is Spencer Jones-level bad, but has steadily improved as the season has continued. He’s still young, so his ability to cover up the in-zone hole in his swing will be the difference between being a Jones-level hitter or a Rice-level hitter.
Wilberson De Pena
Good organizations can take toolsy prospects from the Dominican Republic and make them into something. Every team dangles young players currently playing in the Dominican Summer League in trade conversations due to how far away they are from a big league impact and the low hit rate, but good orgs can make you pay. Just look at what the Dodgers are doing to Christian Zazueta, whom the Yankees sent them for… Caleb Ferguson.
The other team from LA swung a recent trade with the Yankees, which saw things go the opposite way. Out went the perennially underwhelming Oswald Peraza to Anaheim in exchange for Wilberson De Pena, an 18-year-old who was going through the motions in the DSL in his second pro season. At least initially, there wasn’t much to talk about with him.
Now there is. He came stateside to the Florida Complex League and has spent the first three weeks of the season absolutely raking. In 18 games, he’s slashing .392/.451/.743 with an FCL-leading six home runs, 27 RBI, 13 extra-base hits, and 11 stolen bases. His 184 wRC+ is eighth in the FCL. He’s already topped his full-season totals from 2025 in several categories. He already has more stolen bases and home runs and has tied his XBH total in 40 less plate appearances.
FanGraphs ranked him the No. 15 prospect in the organization entering the season, but he was unranked on MLB Pipeline. The big concern that FanGraphs had was his contact ability, but he seems to be improving in that regard, slashing his strikeout rate to under 18 percent. He’s reaching his game power potential while using his speed tremendously more. He’s split time across all three outfield positions in 2026, but he’ll almost certainly settle into a corner down the road.
De Pena doesn’t seem long for the FCL, and we’ll get a chance to see more with Statcast data when he gets promoted to Tampa, but the signs are there for him to rise the rankings.
Jace Avina
We showed you the profile of a player with great raw power who wasn’t able to optimize it due to an inability to pull it in the air. Now, what if you had a player like that who’s the same age, playing two levels higher, and has an innate ability to drive the ball in the air to the pull side.
That, my friends, is Jace Avina. Originally a 14th-round pick out of Spanish Springs High School in rural Nevada by the Brewers, he was traded to the Yankees along with Brian Sanchez after the 2023 season for Jake Bauers. Avina spent a year and a half with High-A Hudson Valley, steadily improving before earning a promotion to Double-A Somerset in July 2025, where he endured growing pains.
Now, as he nears his 23rd birthday, he’s figuring out yet another level. He’s been one of the best players in MiLB in May, slashing .313/.411/.615 with seven home runs and 19 RBI after a so-so April. On the season, he’s got an .895 OPS and a 135 wRC+.
Jace Avina rips his 12th HR of the season to tie things up in Bowie!
Avina’s profile is pretty straightforward. He has tremendous pull-side power that he gets to quite easily. Since joining the Yankees’ organization, he’s pulled 54 percent of his batted balls and has never posted a ground ball rate north of 33 percent. He hits the ball in the air and pulls it, which doesn’t have quite the same impact as a right-handed hitter in this specific system, but is usually a successful formula for power bats.
Defensively, he’s considered to be decent enough in center field with a fair amount of athleticism, but being pushed to a corner is definitely possible in the future. So far this year, 20 of his 38 starts have came in center field.
The weaknesses are the same as guys like Jones and Lovich: his ability to consistently make contact. His strikeout rate has spiked from 24.4 percent in High-A last year to 31.6 percent this year. It doesn’t help that he’s also walking less. He’s also tremendously inconsistent, going from one of the best hitters in the system one month before ghosting the next.
Lovich and Avina are similar prospects in some ways, but completely different in others. Not only do they have completely different styles of displaying their raw power, but they also thrive on different pitches. Avina feasts on breaking balls, but struggles against fastballs. But still, with him just now turning 23 in early June in his fifth minor league season and a propensity to figure out a level in his second year there, he’s on a solid trajectory.
Tyler Boudreau
The Yankees certainly aren’t starved for high-end pitching prospects, but it doesn’t hurt to have more in your arsenal. You know the big names: guys like Ben Hess, Carlos Lagrange, Elmer Rodríguez, Bryce Cunningham, etc. Guys like Pico Kohn and Thatcher Hurd have more pedigree. Where’s the later round guy that could emerge as Warren and Schlittler did?
Let’s go way outside the box. Tyler Boudreau didn’t get drafted out of Texas Tech in the 2025 MLB Draft, but was scooped up by the Yanks shortly after as an undrafted free agent. He became a rare pitcher to toss pro innings in his draft year, striking out nine in five innings for Tampa in August of last year to set up his rotation spot this year.
Through eight starts, he’s pitching to a 2.94 ERA and 3.19 FIP in 33.2 innings with 42 strikeouts to just 12 walks. Posting a 22.2 K-BB% as a starter in Single-A is elite, and when you couple that with premier chase and whiff rates? That’ll play.
#Tarpons RHP Tyler Boudreau (W, 1–1) logged a scoreless 5.1 IP (4H, 1BB, 5K, 79P/56S), lowering his ERA to 2.94. In 4 May starts, owns a 1.83 ERA (4ER/19.2IP) w/ 22Ks and only 6BB. #Yankeespic.twitter.com/N9hmyibpfT
The Halifax, Canada, native is 23 in Single-A after spending four years in the Big 12, so the performance numbers themselves aren’t too impressive, but let’s look at the pitch data:
Tyler Boudreau, an UDFA, was my breakout pitching prospect for the Yankees this season, and he delivered in his first start!
The 23-year-old righty flexed his high-riding fastball in addition to his trio of secondaries to strike out 9 over 4.1 innings. Excited to see more of him pic.twitter.com/kupdYtCPCe
He leans heavily on a low-to-mid 90s fastball that has tremendous ride, frequently sitting with over 19 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). He couples it with a changeup that grades out pretty well, as well as a slider and curveball. At 6-foot-1, he’s not the stereotypical massive starter that the Yankees have thrived with of late, but figures to be able to fill out a bit more. With his age, we’ll know pretty soon how the Yankees feel about his long-term prospects.
Ben Grable
Lastly, let’s look for someone who can be a big-time relief prospect. The Yankees used their 2025 11th-round pick on a solid Big Ten reliever from Indiana in Ben Grable. Despite nothing jumping off the page in terms of his collegiate performance, the Yankees pushed the 24-year-old to High-A immediately, where he dominated with 17 strikeouts in 7.1 innings.
Ben Grable (RHP – 11th round 2025) tonight: 1.2 IP 0 ER 0 H 5 K 1 BB + 1 HBP
Ben was featured in Baseball America's statcast standouts article released after the draft under the Yankees' subsection. Ben made easy work of this Blue Rocks lineup with his fastball to both R/L… pic.twitter.com/RVndrJNxQp
That earned him a quick promotion to Somerset, where he’s endured some growing pains in immediate high-leverage roles. Still, the fact that an organization that has multiple elite High-A relievers at a similar age seemingly stuck has pushed a guy like Grable after less than eight innings shows the belief they have in him. So far in his 18 career innings, he has a 35.0 K-BB%.
Baseball America has already shot him up to No. 14 in the system, thanks to his electric mid-to-upper 90s fastball that has up to 21 IVB. His three-pitch mix also includes a slider and splitter, but he hasn’t seemed to trust either of them as much as his complete outlier of a four-seamer.
There were a grand total of ZERO MLB pitchers last year to average 95+ MPH and 20”+ IVB on their fastball.
The fact that his entire professional career has been contained in the two full-season levels without Statcast data makes it harder for more in-depth analysis, but it’s clear that he’s on the fast track to big league consideration. As of Friday, he is the only member of the 2025 draft class to be above A-ball, and he’s been aggressively promoted in a way that we haven’t seen from this organization with relievers. He’s absolutely someone to watch going forward if you’re looking for homegrown relief pitching.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 25: Tyler Stephenson #37 and Graham Ashcraft #23 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrate after the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on May 25, 2026 in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The blows to the Cincinnati Reds bullpen keep right on coming.
On Friday, somewhat out of the blue, the Reds placed Graham Ashcraft on the injured list with what’s being called a “UCL sprain right forearm,” and they didn’t just place him on the 15-day IL, either. Ashcraft went straight to the 60-day IL, a move that’s both ominous and potentially an indication that we’ve seen the last of Graham for the 2026 season (and maybe longer).
The Reds announced the move on Friday afternoon, noting that they had selected the contract of Yunior Marte from AAA Louisville in a corresponding move.
Ashcraft was a key cog in the bullpen prior to the hamstring injury that landed Emilio Pagan on the 60-day IL himself, but had assumed a much higher importance in the wake of said injury. His last trio of outings had also been rock solid, and he was beginning to be looked upon as a legitimate closing option as the team attempts to manage Pagan’s absence.
Now, though, the Reds must figure out how to reconfigure their bullpen once again, while we all wait and see the severity of the injury. I’m not going to bring up the guy whose medical procedure has been named after him, but it’s hard not to go right to that with your mind the moment you hear that there’s damage to a UCL.
MIAMI, FL - APRIL 06: Noelvi Marte #4 of the Cincinnati Reds looks on from the dugout prior to the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on Monday, April 6, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Lucas Casel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
As of the morning of May 29th, there have been 171 players who have logged at least 120 plate appearances at the AAA level so far this season. Noelvi Marte is one of them, and none of the other players in that group has hit for a higher average (.371) than him.
He ranks fifth among that group with a 1.005 OPS, surrounded on the leaderboard by familiar names like Rece Hinds (1.045, 4th) and Edwin Arroyo (.960, 14th). Unlike Hinds, though, his 15.8% strikeout rate ranks among the toughest to fan among that sample, ranking as the 15th lowest.
These are nice numbers. Very nice, very good numbers, indeed. They aren’t at all the numbers the Cincinnati Reds are looking for, however, as they gauge whether or not to bring Marte back into the big league fold.
At the big league level to begin the 2026 season, Marte struggled mightily with these traditional production stats, but more than anything he struggled with many of the underlying ones hitting coaches everywhere break down on film each day. In particular, Marte posted a 45.8% O-Swing% in his time with the Reds, a mark that measures how often a player swung at pitches that were located outside of the strike zone. Among the 309 players who logged at least 30 PA through April 14th – the day Marte was optioned back to AAA due to his struggles – that ranked 9th highest in the sport.
The prevailing sentiment about the gap between big league pitching and the pitching in AAA ball right now isn’t so much about ‘stuff’ as it is about ‘command.’ In AAA, a ball two inches outside the zone is often a trackable delivery that’s simply missing its spot, a pitch intended to be a strike that simply wasn’t accurate enough. That’s the kind of pitch where expanding the zone doesn’t hurt so much, as chasing a four-seamer with a bit of a longer swing can still produce excellent contact. Pitches two inches outside the zone at the big league level, though, are so often there by design – pitches with enough movement to look like they’re going to be in the meat of the zone only to dive just out of reach at the very last.
The worry early with Marte was that while he was producing at the AAA level after being sent down, a lot of that was still coming by swinging at pitch locations that would penalize him, and the Reds offense, if he kept that up upon returning to the bigs. So far with the Bats, though, Marte has begun to rein in those tendencies, and so far sports just a 35.4% O-Swing% at the AAA level this year. That’s much more in-line with where he was at the big league level in 2025 (33.0%) and at AAA last year (35.1%), suggesting that he’s beginning to target the right kind of pitches at which to swing in lieu of free-swinging in a way that simply won’t work at the highest level.
That’s half the equation for Marte fighting his way back onto the active roster of the Reds. The other, of course, is where the heck he’s going to play, something the Reds have been attempting to figure out since the moment they acquired him from the Seattle Mariners.
The Reds picked him up as a SS, and promptly began working him there, at 3B, and even at 2B for a time. We all know their insistence on upgraded defense over his at 3B last summer led to the fateful decision to acquire Ke’Bryan Hayes, a move that shifted Marte to a corner outfield spot where he’d never played before. He’s still getting run in RF so far this season, yet in each of his most recent appearances with the Bats he’s started and played exclusively in CF – something that has coincided with the AAA outfield losing Rece Hinds to the Marlins and Blake Dunn to the big league roster.
Clearly, Reds brass is doing their best to equip him to be the most versatile version of himself defensively in order to get him back on the roster in some form, at some point. The more positions he can play, the fewer pitches he chases will continue to inch him closer to a return to the Reds, something that seems inevitable if he continues to perform at this type of level.
The biggest problem for him now, though, is that the Reds have seemingly found a lineup at the big league level that’s producing well enough without him. Dunn has become the apple of Terry Francona’s eye atop the order and in CF, his speed and defense calling cards being buttressed by more offense (especially against RHP) than most anyone anticipated. That’s beside JJ Bleday carving out a vital everyday role in one outfield corner, while Spencer Steer has had perhaps the hottest bat on the club besides Bleday for the last month while, more often than not, occupying the other outfield corner – that’s because 3B/1B/DH have been seized by Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suarez, and Nathaniel Lowe.
Even if the Reds were to call time on Matt McLain at 2B for a bit, sliding Steer to 2B and calling up Marte for a corner OF spot might not be the most direct move. Arroyo has hit so damn well and is deserving of his own shot at big league pitching, and he’s a more natural fit for 2B in that alignment. And if Dunn begins to struggle as big league pitching gets more of a book on him, there’s a real chance he still sticks around as the 26th man due to his defense and speed while the club turns CF back over to TJ Friedl once more in hopes that the latter can fully shrug off the slump he began the 2026 deeply within.
So, the 24 year old Marte sure looks like he’s going to have to marinate with Louisville for a while longer, barring some catastrophe. And if that’s still the case come July, we’ll find out if there’s another team out there who, during trade season, might have bigger eyes for the future of Marte than the Reds do – especially if it means the Reds get something for a playoff push they can more readily use in 2026.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - MAY 23: Grant Holmes #66 of the Atlanta Braves in action against the Washington Nationals in the third inning at Truist Park on May 23, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Brett Davis/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves are coming off a fun series against the Red Sox where we saw the bats go crazy twice and completely silent once. The Braves will now take their elite offense to Cincinnati and face the back end of the Red’s rotation.
Today Grant Holmes and his 3.78 ERA will face off against Chris Paddack who has yet to bring home his first victory and has a 6.86 ERA. It is still early enough in the season that ERA can be at least a bit deceiving, but the Braves do look primed to do some damage with the bats today.
Grant Holmes has had an up and down season thus far and a lot of it has to do with him not being able to stay effective after seeing the lineup after two times through, which is why you are seeing pitchers like Didier Fuentes being on the ready every time he pitches.
It could be argued that Holmes may have started to turn a corner in a positive direction. Last start he lasted five innings and struck out ten hitters to only two walks against the then MLB leader in runs scored (Nationals). He did give up two solo shots on six hits though. His start before that looked promising too with 6.0 innings of zero run ball against the Red Sox where he struck out four and walked one on five hits.
His underlying metric show that his expected ERA (xERA) is 4.17 which is not terrible and not too far off from his actual ERA. What is concerning though is that hitters have a hard-hit rate of 44.4 percent, which is good for bottom 19.0 percent of qualified pitchers.
No one on the Reds has more than seven at-bats against Holmes in their careers, but most of the players that have faced him have had success. Of the nine hitters to have faced him, six of them have an average of .333 or better. Friedl is the clear front runner in terms of success. In four at-bats, he has two HRs.
It could have probably been guessed already, but Chris Paddack has had some poor luck. Although his xERA is not desirable at 4.32, it is much better than his 6.86 actual ERA. One area that may give the Braves trouble is he is able to get hitters to chase the ball out of the zone 33.7 percent of the time, which is good for top 19.0 percent of qualified pitchers. The Braves have a few players like Albies, Harris, and Riley who are notorious for chasing the ball out of the zone.
Mike Yastrzemski leads the team with twenty-five at-bats against Paddack and has had no problem being successful. He has three HRs, a .400 average, and a 1.324 OPS in that span. No other Braves player has more than eleven at-bats against Paddack. It will be interesting to see if Smith gets the DH start today because he has a .182 average in those eleven at-bats.
First pitch is at 6:40 pm EDT.
Game Info
Game Time: Friday, May 29th, 6:40 pm EDT
Location: Great American Ball Park, , Cincinnati, OH
ARLINGTON, TX - JUNE 19: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals runs onto the field prior to the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Thursday, June 19, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Karen Hastings/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Rangers won their first championship in 2023, in part by spending a lot on free agents. But they had to pay the piper, and since then they have been a middling team around .500, missing the playoffs in each of the last two seasons.
Kansas City Royals (22-34) vs. Texas Rangers (25-31) at Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
The Rangers are hitting .230 as a team, tied for fifth-worst in baseball. Joc Pederson is hitting .314/.435/.627 with four home runs in his last 20 games. Pederson is hitting .300/.338/.600 in 14 games against the Royals, his best numbers against any team. He is just 2-for-19 (.105) in his career against Seth Lugo, but has homered twice in 29 plate appearances against Michael Wacha.
Josh Jung is hitting .377/.435/.597 at home. Catcher Danny Jansen is hitting .128/.255/.277 in 16 games in the month of May. Alejandro Osuna hits 50.8 percent of balls on the ground. The Rangers have made fewer outs on the bases than any team in baseball. Texas is without starters Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith, and Corey Seager, who are all on the Injured List.
The Rangers acquired MacKenzie Gore in a big trade with the Nationals after he put up a 3.1 rWAR season last year. He exited his May 18 start after one inning with lat nightness, but returned earlier last weekend to give up just one hit in six innings against the Angels. Gore has a reverse split this year and in his career, with lefties hitting him better than righties.
Kumar Rocker was a highly touted pitcher at Vanderbilt that the Mets famously did not sign after drafting him and viewing his medicals. He had Tommy John surgery, and struggled in 14 starts last year, but may be turning a corner this year. He tossed back-to-back scoreless starts before giving up four runs in five innings in his last start against the Astros. He relies heavily on a sinker/slider combo that nets a 53 percent groundball rate.
Jack Leiter was Rocker’s teammate at Vanderbilt and was the #2 overall selection in the 2021 draft. He earned Rookie of the Year votes after posting a 3.86 ERA in 29 starts last year. He throws some heat with a 96.7 mph fastball that opponents are hitting just .205 against.
The Rangers’ bullpen has a 3.10 ERA, fourth-lowest in baseball, despite the third-lowest strikeout rate. Lefty Jacob Latz has been the primary closer, converting six of eight opportunities, while former Royals pitcher Jakob Junis had three saves in April. Lefty Tyler Alexander has a 51.4 percent groundball rate. Lefties are hitting .257/.333/.543 against lefty reliever Jalen Beeks.
This weekend will be a homecoming for Royals star Bobby Witt Jr., who grew up in the Dallas area, the son of a former Rangers pitcher. The Royals have lost 10 of 15 games at Globe Life Park since it opened in 2020. They took six of seven from the Rangers last year, and will need that kind of performance this weekend to turn their season around.
Tonight is the 58th Cubs game of the 2026 season and finally, finally the team will be facing its biggest rival, the St. Louis Cardinals.
On the one hand, you shouldn’t have to go through 35 percent of the season before facing that biggest rival. On the other hand, this means that 13 of the Cubs’ next 68 games will be against the Cardinals. On the other other hand, that means the Cubs won’t face the Cardinals after Aug. 14, the 125th game of the season.
That all feels wrong. Bring back the unbalanced schedule.
For more on the Cardinals, here’s Doc Holliday, manager of our SB Nation Cardinals site Viva el Birdos, who sent me 11 key points about our division rivals.
JJ Wetherholt has one of the best batting eyes the Cubs will compete against this year. He’s averaging seeing 18 pitches per game and will be the Cardinals leadoff man for years to come.
The Ivan Herrera catching experiment isn’t working. He has yet to throw out a runner, but his bat continues to be vital.
Jordan Walker is for real. He not only got off to a hot start, but then made successful adjustments after pitchers adjusted to him being a threat. He might be the most dangerous hitter in the National League right now.
Nolan Gorman is still Nolan Gorman. He’s been a low .200’s BA hitter and he’s still a low .200’s BA hitter and his power numbers don’t compensate for the lack of contact.
Michael McGreevy is likely the “ace” of the Cardinals rotation right now. He has Greg Maddux-ish tendencies and knows how to move the ball around the zone and grab corners.
Matthew Liberatore has struggled to establish himself. He can be lock-down for four innings, but fall apart in the fifth. Or, as was the case Monday against the Brewers, have a terrible first inning, then be lights out for the next four.
The Cardinals are relentless in their approach and have notched numerous comeback wins. They’re young and don’t know they’re supposed to be losing right now.
The bullpen is problematic. Riley O’Brien started the year with over a dozen saves, but has been hittable his last couple of appearances. Ryne Stanek has had flashes of being good, but he’s wild and has lost more games than he’s helped win. Gordon Graceffo has been a relatively solid middle relief arm, but Justin Bruihl and Matt Svanson remain question marks.
Bryan Torres is a great story – in the minors for a decade and had two hits including a home run in his first game. He tried to quit, but his mother talked him out of it.
The Cardinals fan base has started grumbling about Oli Marmol’s use of the rotation and bullpen. He dropped Brycen Mautz into Monday’s game as a middle innings reliever in a tight 3-1 game against the Brewers for his major league debut and it did not end well. Our community is hot that Oli dropped this guy into the fire of a game against division leader for his first major league appearance.
Overall, St. Louis has become a dangerous team to play. Their offense can be explosive and starters like McGreevy, Dustin May and Andre Pallante are starting to find their groove.
Fun facts
As mentioned above, after a mere 57 other games, more than one third of the season, the Cubs finally will face the Cardinals for the first time this year.
They closed out last season against one another, with the Cubs sweeping three games at Wrigley Field. They have not squared off at St. Louis since the Cardinals won the rubber game of a series on Aug. 10. The Cubs have played 102 games since then.
The Cubs’ 2,526 games vs. the Cardinals are their second most against any opponent, after 2,629 vs. the Pirates. In all those games, the Cubs have outscored the Cards by just 19 runs, 11,045 to 11,026. They lead the rivalry, 1,281 wins to 1,226, but are 566-675 at St. Louis. The 675 losses are their second most on the road, after 714 at Pittsburgh.
Last year, the Cubs were 3-4 at St. Louis, splitting a four-game series and losing two of three in the other. They were 1-1 and 2-2 in 2024. They last won a series, 3-1, July 27-30, 2023.
The Cubs have not swept a series at St. Louis since Sept. 13-15, 2010. This is their 40th series there since then. They have been swept in 10 of the previous 39, most recently Sept. 2-4, 2022. One of the sweeps was four games and another was two.
Sunday: Jordan Wicks, LHP (0-1, 16.62 ERA, 2.308 WHIP, 5.15 FIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore, LHP (2-3, 4.76 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 4.66 FIP)
Times & TV channels
Friday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Saturday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map, scroll down to the bottom of that link). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if it’s not on the Fox affiliate in your market. Announcers: Eric Collins, John Smoltz and Ken Rosenthal.
Sunday: 6:20 p.m. CT, NBC/Peacock (full national broadcast, no blackouts). Announcers: Jason Benetti, Jim Deshaies and Albert Pujols.
Prediction
The Cardinals have lost four straight and six of seven and maybe the pixie dust is wearing off. The Cubs offense looks good after the last two games in Pittsburgh.
Two of three.
Up next
The Cubs have Monday off, then return to Wrigley Field for a three-game series against the Athletics beginning Tuesday evening.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - JUNE 18: A view of the sunset over the stadium during the seventh inning between the Seattle Mariners and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on June 18, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After another losing homestand the Red Sox thankfully head on the road, where they can win.
Welcome to Cleveland.
First place in the AL Central, the Guardians are 33-25 on the season. They’re three game in front of the Chicago White Sox. Not a typo. You were expecting the Detroit Tigers? They’re sitting at 22-35. The Red Sox are 23-32. So it really could be worse. Without Tarik Skubal the Tigers are in free fall. The Sox unfortunately don’t have such a linchpin player who can return. Well, maybe Roman Anthony or Garrett Crochet, but neither are quite the key Skubal is. Cleveland is scoring 4.14 runs per game. That’s below average but better than Boston’s 3.85 mark. They’re allowing 3.91 runs per game from the pitching unit, also just better than Boston’s 4.02.
It’s that time in the rotation. Brayan Bello will be pitching. This time with the newly-recalled Tyler Samaniego as his opener. With any luck, Typical Bello Dazzlement will appear for the bulk innings. Samaniego last appeared on 5/23 with a scoreless, hitless inning against the Twins. The Guardians have Slade Cecconi, a righthander with a 5.18 ERA facing the nearly unstoppable Bulk Bello. Over 11 starts he’s been up and down and up and down allowing 6 runs, 4 runs, 6 runs, 4 runs, 5 runs, around his better outings. Seattle, Atlanta, Houston, Toronto, and Oakland Sacramento all hit him hard. Those would be some of the better offenses in the league.
Sonny Gray is coming off his first real down outing in weeks. He lasted just 4.0 innings against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday. He’s struck out 6, 9, and 4 over his past three starts of 6.0, 6.0, and 4.0 innings. He’d been in a groove since coming off the IL. He’ll face Parker Messick, a 25-year-old southpaw. Over his last five starts he allowed 2 earned runs or less four times. And he’s struck out 32 in those 28 innings.
With any luck the Sox have one or two wins already before Sunday. A series win in the bag heading into game three would be wonderful. Ranger Suarez, who was in a groove, promptly fell out of it against the Atlanta Braves. The five earned runs allowed last time out were a season high. He’ll be looking to bounce back. In one matchup last season, Suarez didn’t allow a run over 7.0 innings. Tanner Bibbe was roughed up for 7 runs last time out and gave up 8 runs to the Braves in April. Aside from a four-run, 4.0 outing against the Royals all the rest of his outings were 3 runs or less. The Guardians won his first start of the year and then lost the next 9, won against Detroit and then lost to the Nationals.
José Ramírez is off to his normal tricks: 8 homers, 20 steals and he’s an iron man with 58 games played.
Rookie Travis Bazzana is off to .302/.407/.458 start.
Angel Martínez has 9 home runs.
New catcher Patrick Bailey, acquired from the San Francisco Giants, is hitting .120/.185/.280. He’s called for 44 challenges from behind the plate and won 26.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday, May 29: Tyler Samaniego (1.04 ERA / 3.88 FIP) vs. Slade Cecconi (5.18 ERA / 4.67 FIP)
Saturday, May 30: Sonny Gray (3.27 ERA / 3.66 FIP) vs. Parker Messick (2.24 ERA / 3.04 FIP)
Sunday, May 31: Ranger Suarez (3.02 ERA / 3.29 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibbe (4.57 ERA / 4.85 FIP)
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a frustrating sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers and left some of us feeling like the magic could be gone. It is a tough time to happen as the Cardinals are in the middle of a long stretch of games against the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs coming to town this evening.
Of course, the Cubs have been going through trying times of their own ever since Chicagoland MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong decided to partake in some fan banter. After having two separate winning streaks of at least 10 games, the Cubs continued their streaky season with a more fun to watch 10-game losing streak. As good as it was to see, I am personally glad they were able to take the last two games in Pittsburgh because Chicago is not a team that is bad enough to lose 14 in a row.
Since most of our focus has been on the Cardinals season and when Pete Crow-Armstrong messes up, I decided to have some Cubs content guys on the podcast to break the team down a little further. Paul “Crawly” Dzien from Fly the W podcast and Jared Wyllys from CHGO joined to talk about the roller coaster of a season that has seen the Cubs go on two separate 10-game winning streaks before just ending a 10-game losing streak. Even with the ups and downs, neither of them are overly scared about this series or the Cardinals in general.
Previewing the Cubs and Cardinals series with a rivalry flashback
Midway through the pod, I tried baiting the guys into saying they were worried about the Cardinals getting their Devil Magic back from the Brewers, but neither Jim nor I could get them to admit it. Jared and Crawly are more focused on their team and their own roster holes instead of the Cardinals or even the Brewers. Since that did not work to get their blood boiling, we wrapped up the show by sharing our favorite and most annoying moments from the best rivalry in baseball. Make sure you tune into those and drop your memories in the comments!
There may be some slight changes in the podcast posting schedule in the near future and I will update you all as those come. I appreciate all the love and support so far, please keep liking, subscribing, and sharing the show. It really does help when you guys click those buttons, so send it along to a Cubs fan in your life and lets get this rivalry heated again! Thanks as always!
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - MAY 26: Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) celebrates with Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) after hitting a 2 run home run during a MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants on May 26, 2026 at Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA. (Photo by Trinity Machan/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Mariners finally put together a complete series with every part of the roster firing on all cylinders. That it came against the division leading Athletics and led to a sweep, launching the M’s into first place in the AL West makes it all the sweeter. The team still isn’t above .500 yet — it’s a weird year in the West — but they’ve got momentum on their side and are staring down at all their rivals once again.
The Diamondbacks entered this season in a weird place. They haven’t been able to build off of their surprise World Series appearance back in 2023 despite investing a bunch of money into their roster the last few years. The issue is that Corbin Burnes and a bunch of their best relievers got injured and the rest of the pitching staff wasn’t deep enough to cover for those absences. That led to a pretty dramatic sell off last summer, though all of the team’s core pieces were left intact. That’s the reason why they’ve been so competitive this year — it really helps when your two superstars carry the offense through the first few months of the season. Those injured pitchers should be returning sometime around midseason which means the team is actually in a good place right now to take advantage of those reinforcements in the summer.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Ketel Marte
2B
S
227
15.0%
7.0%
0.200
124
Corbin Carroll
RF
L
222
22.5%
13.5%
0.261
162
Geraldo Perdomo
SS
S
220
13.2%
14.5%
0.112
94
Nolan Arenado
3B
R
194
18.0%
9.3%
0.188
127
Ryan Waldschmidt
CF
R
70
30.0%
8.6%
0.111
121
Ildemaro Vargas
1B
S
199
10.6%
3.5%
0.181
126
Gabriel Moreno
C
R
121
20.7%
8.3%
0.150
100
Adrian Del Castillo
DH
L
124
30.6%
7.3%
0.140
62
Tommy Troy (MiLB)
LF
R
205
24.4%
12.7%
0.142
109
The Diamondbacks have a well-rounded lineup anchored by two superstars. Ketel Marte has been one of the hottest hitters on the planet the past few weeks; since May 9, he’s collected 29 hits in just 17 games, raising his season wRC+ up to 124. He had really struggled to start the season so this hot streak seems like his results correcting themselves to where his peripherals said he should be. Over that same period, Corbin Carroll has collected 22 hits, though that’s a pretty normal output since he’s been excellent throughout the season. Geraldo Perdomo enjoyed a huge breakout last year, though he’s struggled in his follow up season. He’s still got a fantastic approach at the plate, but the power that fueled his breakout has all but disappeared.
Arizona has also promoted their two top prospects recently; Ryan Waldschmidt has taken over in center field after the team designated Alek Thomas for assignment and Tommy Troy is covering for the injured Lourdes Gurriel Jr. On the other end of the age spectrum, Nolan Arenado has played well in his first season in Arizona, producing his best offensive output since 2022, and Ildemaro Vargas is enjoying a breakout season at the ripe age of 34.
Zac Gallen suffered through the worst season of his career last year, his final year of team control before hitting the open market as a free agent. It could not have been worse timing. With a qualifying offer attached to him, he received very little interest from other teams and wound up re-signing with Arizona in February. Things haven’t been any better this year. Even at his peak, Gallen survived not through overpowering stuff but with a deep repertoire, command, and deception. Without much margin for error to begin with, it certainly seems like all those tricks have failed him the past two years.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Ryne Nelson
60
19.3%
7.5%
11.2%
30.4%
4.65
4.82
Bryan Woo
63.2
23.0%
5.5%
6.6%
33.3%
3.82
3.19
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
56.4%
59.1%
96.3
109
97
89
0.351
Sinker
9.4%
0.9%
95.5
82
Cutter
3.0%
14.6%
92.8
92
Curveball
2.1%
15.4%
80.5
100
Slider
29.0%
10.0%
88.4
109
98
118
0.290
Ryne Nelson possesses a phenomenal fastball. He throws it with nearly perfect backspin and it has a ton of carry at the top of the zone as a result. When batters aren’t swinging underneath it, they’re popping it up or hitting lazy fly balls. Unfortunately, one plus pitch is about all he has. His secondary pitches are average at best and he relies far too heavily on his heater to get outs. His slider has shown a little bit of promise, though he just doesn’t use it enough to help him earn strikeouts. His other problem is that he doesn’t really have a pitch to keep left-handed batters at bay; he dabbled with a changeup in the past but it didn’t stick. Now he’s using a cutter to try and keep batters off his four-seamer, but they’re just crushing the cutter when they see it instead.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Merrill Kelly
48
15.0%
9.7%
11.6%
32.9%
5.25
5.19
Bryce Miller
16
22.6%
3.2%
11.8%
44.4%
2.25
3.32
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
19.1%
31.1%
91.8
88
64
65
0.462
Sinker
14.4%
4.3%
92.3
88
Cutter
15.0%
15.1%
91.0
87
73
51
0.398
Changeup
13.4%
34.9%
88.2
82
102
49
0.450
Curveball
8.1%
12.8%
82.0
89
Slider
30.0%
1.8%
86.3
97
122
154
0.256
After being traded to the Rangers at the trade deadline last summer, Merrill Kelly came right back and re-signed with the Diamondbacks this offseason. A nerve issue in his back sidelined him this spring and he was forced to ramp up on a delayed timeline. He wound up missing the first three weeks of the season. He had trouble with his command and feel once he was back on the mound, which is a big problem because his command and feel are essentially the only way he’s been able to be successful throughout his career. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but knows how to use his deep repertoire to keep batters off balance when he can hit his spots. His best pitch is a hard changeup that dives off the table and a slider that is getting a lot more use this year.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Mariners
28-29
0.491
+24
L-L-W-W-W
Athletics
27-29
0.482
0.5
-25
L-W-L-L-L
Astros
26-32
0.448
2.5
-37
W-W-L-W-W
Rangers
25-31
0.446
2.5
-5
L-L-W-L-L
Angels
22-35
0.386
6.0
-56
W-W-W-L-W
After failing their test against the Mariners, the Athletics now host the Yankees for three games this weekend. The Astros took three of four from the Rangers this week and swapped places with them in the standings. Despite their early season struggles, Houston is now only 2.5 games back in the division thanks to a 7-3 record over their last 10 games. The Astros host the Brewers this weekend while the Rangers host the Royals.
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 22: Austin Wells #28 of the New York Yankees looks on from the dugout during the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on May 22, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Heading into the 2026 campaign, we all knew who Austin Wells was as a hitter. His wRC+ ranged between 94 and 107 every season from 2023 to 2025, and he developed 20-homer power last year with a .436 slugging percentage. He racked up 3.5 fWAR in 2024 and earned a 3.0 mark last campaign.
He has regressed offensively this year, though, struggling to the tune of a .176/.288/.275 line, just four homers in 153 plate appearances, a 62 wRC+, and 0.4 fWAR, mostly fueled by his still steady defensive contributions. Wells has been particularly bad in May, slashing an unfathomable .148/.212/.197 with an 18 (!) wRC+. He has a 7.6 percent walk rate and a horrible 37.9 percent strikeout rate this month, with a .049 isolated power and just one extra-base hit, a home run.
Of course, everything starts at the plate. That elevated strikeout rate makes it virtually impossible for a hitter to succeed, let alone someone who hasn’t really been showing home-run power. In May, Wells has a 14 percent swinging strike rate (SwStr%), higher than his 12.5 percent mark for his career. In addition to the whiffs, his contact rate has plummeted to 71.2 percent this month, down from 74.9 percent in his MLB tenure.
If we examine his season numbers as a whole, not just May, it does seem that he is being too passive at times. He is sporting a career-high 14.8 percent called strike rate, and a career-low 46.9 percent swing percentage. He is also swinging at pitches inside the zone at a 67.3 percent rate, much lower than his career mark of 72 percent and last year’s 71.5 percent.
On top of that, even though his chase percentage is actually marginally better this year than last, he has had some ugly swings out of the zone that often result in strikeouts. It’s like he gives up on at-bats at times, or is not fully focused:
As you can see in the videos above, down-and-away breaking balls are murdering Wells, who has looked helpless with two strikes on the count. This is probably why he has been so vulnerable against lefties, with a horrible -3 wRC+ this season against them as opposed to a 97 mark versus righties. Basically, if you are a southpaw, or a right-hander with a good changeup or splitter with arm-side movement, you have the upper hand against Wells.
Of course, there’s also the luck factor, which can’t be completely ignored. Wells’ .046 gap between his .259 wOBA and his .305 xwOBA is the 13th largest in the entire league among qualified hitters. This doesn’t mean he has been good, but that’s not the case, but his numbers should be a bit better based on his quality (and quantity) of contact.
It’s not like it’s all been bad with Wells. His 13.7 percent walk rate ranks in the 88th percentile among MLB hitters, and he ranks in the 90th percentile in Fielding Run Value, per Statcast. He remains a phenomenal framer and a good defensive catcher, not to mention a patient hitter willing to walk. However, he needs to hit if he’s going to remain the Yankees’ starting catcher in 2026 and beyond. It’s that simple.
The Yankees can surely tolerate a wRC+ between 85 and 95 if it means a catcher makes the difference behind the dish, which is the case with Wells. A 62 mark, however, is hard to stomach. Unless the Yankees are willing to start using Ben Rice at catcher more often, which hasn’t happened at all this year, or give more playing time to J.C. Escarra, they have no choice but to stick with Wells through his offensive struggles.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - MAY 26: James Wood #29 of the Washington Nationals watches a two-run homer during the second inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on May 26, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Nats were unable to pull off the sweep in Cleveland, dropping the game Thursday 3-2, but in 2026 Nationals fashion, they went down swinging, scoring one in the 9th and getting the tying run to second base. The club heads home now after an exciting road trip in which they went 4-2, beating two division-leading ballclubs in two series. There to greet the Nats at home is a Padres team in a playoff spot, but who have 4 games in a row.
The Padres have played good baseball this season, but if you were to just look at how their stars were playing, you probably wouldn’t believe so. The 2 best regulars in the Padres lineup this season have been Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar, as Jackson Merrill has regressed once again in his junior campaign, Father Time is catching up to Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr has amazingly gone 54 games into the season without homering, leaving him and Nasim Nunez as the only two qualified hitters to not have homered yet.
Pitching has kept the Padres alive while their stars falter, specifically the bullpen, as their team’s relief ERA of 3.07 ranks 2nd in baseball, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers. Mason Miller leads the charge with his sub-1 ERA, but others such as Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, Wandy Peralta, and more have stepped up and played their part as well.
Game One – Friday 6:45 PM EST
SDP: RHP Lucas Giolito (2-0, 2.70 ERA)
WSH: RHP Paxton Schultz (0-2, 5.30 ERA)
After going through the winter and Spring Training unsigned, Giolito finally found a home with the Padres back in April on a one-year deal. After taking a few weeks to ramp up, he’s been effective so far in his 2 starts for them, throwing 5 scoreless innings against the Athletics in his last start.
Paxton Schultz will open up tonight’s ballgame for the Nats, before handing things off to Andrew Alvarez for the bulk of the innings work. Outside of a 6-run barrage from the Mets, Schultz has been effective in May for the Nats, allowing 1 run in the other 8 1/3 innings of work, and tonight he will make his first opener appearance of the year.
Game Two- Saturday 4:05 PM EST
SDP: RHP Michael King (4-3, 2.76 ERA)
WSH: TBD (Probable: LHP Foster Griffin)
King has been the ace the Padres need this season, posting a dazzling 2.76 ERA in 11 starts. He got roughed up for 4 runs in 3 2/3 innings last time out versus the Athletics, so hopefully the Nats can do the same to him Saturday night.
The Nats have yet to announce their Saturday starter, but it will be Foster Griffin’s turn in the rotation. After back-to-back rough starts, Griffin refound his form in Atlanta, throwing 6 scoreless innings and earning the victory.
Game Three – Sunday 1:35 PM EST
SDP: RHP Griffin Canning (0-3, 7.54 ERA)
WSH: TBD (Probable: RHP Zack Littell, or an opener followed by Littell)
Griffin Canning gets the ball for the Padres on Sunday, and while the ERA may look rough, it mainly stems from 2 of his 5 starts so far this year going very poorly, allowing 6 runs in both. In his last 2 starts, Canning has allowed 3 runs each, so hopefully the Nats get to face the worse version of Canning on Sunday.
No Nats starter has been announced for Sunday’s ballgame either, but it will be Zack Littell’s turn in the rotation, meaning it will likely either be him or an opener followed by him. Littell had his best appearance of the year last time out and one of the biggest by a Nat all season, throwing 7 innings of one-run ball in Cleveland in a blowout, allowing an exhausted bullpen to take the day off.
May 23, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki (11) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
They don’t hand out MVP awards for the NLDS. But I believe the most valuable player in the Phillies’ playoff series against the Dodgers in 2025 was Roki Sasaki.
After dominating in the Japanese Pacific League in 2024, the Phillies pursued the young pitcher. But the appeal of playing on the west coast with countryman Shohei Ohtani was too much for Sasaki to pass up, and he joined the Dodgers. Adding insult to injury, the Phillies actually helped facilitate the signing.
Roki Sasaki will receive a $6.5M signing bonus from the Dodgers. LAD had $5.14M of bonus pool, but processed a trade with the Phillies for OF prospect Dylan Campbell to add (presumably $1.5M) enough to seal the deal. https://t.co/RiDUWN8n7Q
He was regarded as the top prospect in baseball before the season began, but injuries limited him to just eight starts. However, he rejoined the team in September, and was moved to the bullpen where he pitched two scoreless innings in relief.
Heading into the playoffs, the bullpen was regarded as the Dodgers’ only potential weakness, but the addition of a hard-throwing fresh pitcher helped cover up that flaw nicely. He closed out the first two games of the series, and then in the pivotal game four, he pitched three perfect innings, setting up the Dodgers’ 11th inning victory.
Roki Sasaki is unbelievable.
He just flew through the 8th and 9th innings against the heart of the Phillies order.
The Dodgers hoped that he would rejoin the team’s rotation in 2026 and build upon that performance, but he’s been far from dominant this season. He’s got a 4.93 ERA, mostly due to high walk totals.
He’s scheduled to face the Phillies on Saturday night. Can the Phillies get some modicum of revenge, or will he once again dominate their lineup?
Trivia
Last week’s answer: Aside from Citizens Bank Park and American Family Field, the park that Rhys Hoskins has homered in the most is New York’s Citi Field. (I’m not 100% sure, but I’m pretty sure he was the last Phillie to actually hit a home run there.) MG77 was correct!
This week’s question: Who was the only Phillie to record a hit against Roki Sasaki in the 2025 NLDS?
Additional thought about the series
It’s extremely frustrating that the Dodgers can get subpar performances from star hitters Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker and still be comfortably in first place. Because it’s the Dodgers, they just have Andy Pages step up and lead the National League in WAR.
Andy Pages season pace:
37 home runs⁰144 RBI⁰20 stolen bases⁰329 total bases⁰34 defensive runs saved⁰10.7 bWAR | 8.1 fWAR
— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) May 28, 2026
And then there’s Shohei Ohtani. He’s having a good season, but it’s been a drop off from his numbers the past three years. (If he was on the Phillies, his .882 OPS might make some wonder if he was no longer elite.) The Phillies have done a good job keeping him in check in past matchups, and had the NLDS gone differently, his 1-18 performance in that series would have been the big story.)
His pitching may be receiving more attention than his hitting this season, since he has a 0.82 ERA. Some have said he’s been the best pitcher in baseball this season, but let’s not get carried away. Cristopher Sanchez has pitched 44.2 consecutive scoreless innings while Ohtani has pitched just 55 innings total.
They won’t face Ohtani on the mound this weekend, but they will presumably see him at the plate. Oddly, despite the Phillies’ overall success against Ohtani, Friday night’s starter Zack Wheeler hasn’t been able to get him out. Ohtani has reached base in five out his six plate appearances against Wheeler. So maybe it’s a good thing that Wheeler missed the playoffs last year? (Narrator: It was not a good thing.)
DENVER, CO - May 1: Atlanta Braves pitcher Anthony Molina (61) pitches in the sixth inning during a game between the Atlanta Braves and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on May 1, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Despite garnering 14% of the vote in our alternative Player of the Game poll after the Braves were shut out in Boston, Carlos Carrasco has been designated for assignment for the third time this season. If the last two go-arounds are anything to go by, the minor league contract is piping-hot off the printer and his locker in Gwinnett is untouched, awaiting his return.
In all seriousness, his four innings of relief after Bryce Elder’s struggles on Wednesday were a gift that saved many of the arms in the bullpen. This is huge for our big three of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias, who will be especially well-rested ahead of this three-game set in Cincinnati since they weren’t needed in yesterday’s blowout.
In his place, the Braves have recalled a fresh arm in righty Anthony Molina, who will join the club for his second stint this season. His lone outing came in Colorado, where he pitched two perfect innings (with one walk allowed) before being optioned back down to Triple-A.
The #Braves today recalled RHP Anthony Molina to Atlanta and designated RHP Carlos Carrasco for assignment.
