Category: Baseball

The Cardinals host the Braves this weekend at Busch Stadium leading up to the All Star Break. If you haven’t heard, Jordan Walker will be in the Home Run Derby on Monday night on Netflix, AND be at the All-Star Game, as the Cardinals lone position player representative. Riley O’Brien was also added to the All-Star roster because certain pitchers were scheduled to play in games this weekend and would not have enough rest time for the exhibition game. Old news, I know, but the All-Star Break is just right around the corner after this series hosting Atlanta.

(Personally, I am going to watch the HR Derby for the first time in years, because I currently have Netflix… and probably ignore the All-Star Game as usual, unless I am bored and can find it on streaming TV somehow).

the 2026 Atlanta Braves

Over the last 10 games, the Braves are 5-5, two of those losses and one of those wins due to the Cardinals. Since the Cardinals went to Atlanta, the Braves split a 4 game series vs the Mets, and won a three game series in Pittsburgh. Before we won that series against them in Atlanta, the Braves had been bailing the water out of their boat, going 9-14 in June. So, I cannot tell if their going 5-5 in the last 10 games is them turning it around or, just treading water. Regardless of recency bias, they are one of the best teams in baseball and first place in the ultra tough NL East division, where 4 out of 5 teams possess winning records.

What must be really frustrating for Braves fans during their hapless June: losing series to teams like the Mets, Giants, and Padres, and being swept in two games by the White Sox, while doing well vs the Brewers. Go figure.

The Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and they fare well at home, on the road, and vs over .500 teams. How can a team that has been floundering so much lately be that on top of things? They stacked up 22 wins in March and April, and 18 wins in May.

How is Atlanta so good?

It’s not so much the hitting, it’s the pitching. Their lineup can certainly hit home runs well beyond the midrange, tied for 6th in MLB with 3 other teams. Overall, their lineup is good not great, most similar to the Houston Astros. And similar to the Cardinals, the Braves don’t like to take many walks. They take even less walks than St Louis, and perhaps the biggest weakness to their lineup is on-base percentage. But hey, if you’re hitting the long ball, whatever about walks, amirite.

Braves pitching is what makes their team win a lot. Their best trait is most similar to the Giants, but all the Brewers: they don’t let you barrel the ball. As a team they are really doing well, but there’s a caveat…

Braves pitching has an airtight, lockdown bullpen. So it’s their relievers! Believe it or not, the Braves bullpen is worth nearly as much WAR as their starting rotation. The Braves are either proof that an elite bullpen can elevate your above average team to elite, without having anything more than an above-average lineup and above-average starting pitching by ERA/xERA (below average by FIP stats!).

Braves Defense

The Braves defense is good, especially because of center fielder Michael Harris II, left fielder Mauricio Dubon, rangey first baseman Matt Olson, and part time shorstop Jorge Mateo, if we are going by Fielding Run Value on Baseball Savant. They can certainly prevent some runs on defense, so maybe their starting rotation isn’t as important a factor in their winning ways.

Home runs, prime outfield defense, and a bullpen just as good as the Brewers, only bettered by the Dodgers and Padres by fWAR.

The Cardinals defense throws all their eggs in one basket, with arguably the best middle infield defense in MLB. Overall St Louis ranks higher than the Braves defense, but it’s not by a lot. _{Hopefully this can be a good series.}

Cardinals 4-6 in their last 10 games

The 2026 Cardinals as they stand today are road warriors. At home they are a game under .500. Earlier in the season the team was over .500 vs teams over .500, but now will need to take two of three from the Braves to go back over .500 vs good teams. That’s a lot of .500! Which is also their expected win/loss record, currently.

No matter how you critique Atlanta, the Cardinals are the underdog here. The Cardinals have a slightly better position-player group overall, with that elite middle infield and a slightly better lineup because of the years Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera are having, with the added on-base power of table setters JJ Wetherholt and Lars Nootbaar and the 134 wRC+ bat of Nelson Velazquez.

While the Braves don’t have stellar run producers like Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson, they score more runs because of a deeper lineup. So as much as statcast and sabermetric stats like the Cardinals a little bit more, the Braves are winning more games because of scoring more runs… and having much better pitching.

courtesy of baseball savant / mlb statcast info

You might be surprised that the Cardinals rotation is about the same as the Braves in ERA, and actually a fair deal better in total fWAR. That is where the similarities end, the Cardinals bullpen ERA is 4.28 and the Braves is 3.13! And the difference by xERA is even more devastating. If you prefer the lens of fWAR, the Braves bullpen is 3.5 wins better than the Cardinals!

This will strike home but the Braves bullpen probably will not walk you. No free passes. Whereas the Cardinals bullpen corps is practically inviting you onto first base in comparison. When Riley O’Brien is your most stingy walks guy, there is a problem. Ryne Stanek, Ryan Fernandez, Matt Svanson, and Gordon Graceffo are the prime offenders, but George Soriano needs some work too. The usually reliable JoJo Romero isn’t having his best year, but his ERA is good at least.

Series Schedule and Matchups

7:15 PM Friday July 10, 2026: Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy

Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 58.1% to Cardinals 41.9% chance of winning

-Watch on: AppleTV (sorry guys)

Aging Ace Chris Sale is a lefty, so we should expect to see Nelson Velazquez in left field and batting cleanup. Blaze Jordan will probably play first base. Pedro Pages will likely catch Kyly Leahy.

Keys to the game: our outfield is like the inverse of Atlanta’s, defensively. Not good! Jordan Walker and Nelson Velazquez are having a race to the bottom in OAA numbers. At least Nathan Church is playing, it would seem! The Cardinals need to rely on pitch-to-contact, ground out style pitching. They must somehow get to and/or catch Chris Sale on a bad day. Because you don’t want to have to win vs Atlanta’s bullpen. Burleson needs a big hit in a big pinch hit opportunity, if the Cardinals pitching can even tame the Braves lineup.

Should we win this? No. But it sure would be nice.

6:15 PM Saturday July 11, 2026: Reynaldo Lopez vs Matthew Liberatore

Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 53.6% to Cardinals 46.4%

-Watch on: CardinalsTV

Reynaldo Lopez looks really good by old school stats ERA and W/L record. Everything else looks prime for regression, whether it’s his xERA or FIP stats. He probably just isn’t that good. He will probably issue some walks. But on the flipside, he is still better than the Cardinals worst starting pitcher in 2026, Matthew Liberatore.

Liberatore is worse than Lopez across the board except he actually issues less walks. It could be argued that Reynaldo is having a lucky season while Matthew is having a .325 BABIP against disaster. Whatever the case, Liberatore is having a bad season and is getting hit harder. Lopez also has less miles on the tires, at only 50 some innings pitched. This game is winnable, but we are going to have to see a decent Liberatore outing.

Lopez is a right-handed pitcher, so look to see Burly man first base, with Herrera catching Liberatore and Nootbaar in left field. I am using roster resource projected lineups for the purposes of this preview.

Keys to the game: Let’s make Reynaldo Lopez regress quickly, shall we? Score as many runs as possible early on.

Should we win this: I’m going to call it a draw, flip a coin, whatever.

1:15 PM Sunday July 12, 2026: Hurston Waldrep vs Dustin May

Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 45.3% to Cardinals 54.7%

-Watch on: CardinalsTV

Hurston Waldrep sounds like a name in a sci-fi or fantasy novel, or maybe a steampunk character, but he doesn’t seem to be a very good pitcher. This would be like if it was Liberatore vs Sale, because our guy Dustin May is pitching vs their worst pitcher. Who knows what could happen since he doesn’t seem to be a regular starting pitcher and we are dealing with small sample size, somewhat… but this guy has a major, major walk issue.

Dustin May may have a babip against problem in 2026 (he usually doesn’t), but his underlying numbers and non-ERA rate stats look real good. He is on pace for a 4 fWAR season powered by a 3.21 FIP. His xERA is 3.78, making him the Cardinals ace by that measure. It is looking like the standard Burleson lineup Sunday as Waldrep is a righty. Look for Herrera to catch again Sunday, maybe.

Keys to the game: see if Waldrep will walk you first and foremost, and if not, do some damage. May will need to have a decent game, if the Cardinals lineup is mystified by the newbie starting pitcher. Or maybe it’s a bullpen game for them that day, great.

Should we win this: why the heck not! Winning the last game before the All Star Break seems key, somehow. Maybe this is the game where we prove we can outhit the Braves.

See you Wednesday on the other side of the All Star Game! Go Cardinals.

And of course, tomorrow afternoon starting at noon is the MLB Draft! Full coverage here on VEB for each pick! don’t miss it… google tells me that it is on both NBC and MLB Network, or on streaming through Peacock, Fubo, and MLB.com.

Cardinals baseball will resume next Friday night in Arizona, after this Braves series

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The Toronto Blue Jays open a weekend series looking to keep their bats warm against the San Diego Padres and left-hander JP Sears.

Ernie Clement has become a near-automatic source of offense and headlines a card built around Toronto's edge against southpaws, with Shane Bieber taking the ball for the Blue Jays.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 10.

Blue Jays vs Padres predictions

Blue Jays vs Padres best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

We're starting to talk about Ernie Clement as a hit-per-day guy. He's gone under this prop in three of his last four games, but he has recorded a hit in four straight and carries strong career numbers against Padres starter JP Sears.

The Toronto Blue Jays infielder is 3-for-8 lifetime against Sears without striking out. Clement is a contact machine who has cemented his place atop Toronto's order, and I'm backing him to spark the offense as the Jays carry their San Francisco momentum into San Diego.

I'd play this bet down to even money.

COVERS INTEL: Clement is batting .287 with a team-leading 27 hits against left-handed pitchers this year, with nine going for extra bases. That's exactly the matchup he draws against Sears.

Blue Jays vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)

Neither Shane Bieber nor JP Sears has been sharp lately, so I'm riding Over 8 total runs in what should be a hittable pitching matchup.

I'll pair that with the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline at plus money. The Jays are 7-2 on the road against left-handed starters this year, while the market appears overly concerned by Bieber's tiny sample.

Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases rounds out the parlay, as Toronto's top power bat draws a favorable matchup against a homer-prone southpaw.

Blue Jays vs Padres SGP (+475)

• Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
• Over 8
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases

Blue Jays vs Padres home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+240)

I won't go so far as to say you should always bet Kazuma Okamoto's home run prop, but the Blue Jays rookie has been a power beast lately. He's homered in two of his last three games, including a grand slam in Wednesday's finale against the Giants, and leads Toronto with a .474 slugging percentage against left-handers.

That makes Okamoto a strong bet to go yard against Sears, who carries an inflated 6.05 FIP and has allowed 2.3 home runs per nine innings. I like the prop at +240, but I wouldn't play it below +230 and would keep the wager to a quarter unit.

Blue Jays vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +105 | San Diego -125
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+160) | San Diego +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under: 8 (Over -120 | Under +100)

Blue Jays vs Padres trend

The Toronto Blue Jays are 7-2 on the road against left-handed starters this season, a strong backdrop with JP Sears on the mound. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Padres.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Padres and game info

Blue Jays vs Padres latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Padres weather

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I had yesterday off, so didn’t have a roundup of Wednesday’s Minor League Baseball games … so today, we get Wednesday and Thursday from the San Francisco Giants system! Let’s jump in!

Link to the 2026 McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List (CPL)

All listed positions in the roundup are the position played in that particular game.

AAA Sacramento (48-39)

Wednesday: Sacramento River Cats beat the Salt Lake Bees 6-1 [box score]
Thursday: Sacramento River Cats beat the Salt Lake Bees 5-3 [box score]

It’s a 3-game winning streak for the River Cats, and while there weren’t many standout performances in these games, there’s a lot to talk about.

Let’s start with the rehab, as there was some exciting news on that front. Daniel Susac (No. 20 CPL) made his Sacramento debut on Thursday, as he kicked off a rehab assignment by being the designated hitter for most of the game. He went 0-3 with a strikeout. Given Susac’s recent slump, and the fact that he had a mediocre offensive year in AAA last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants wanted to drag out his rehab a little bit so that he can get some additional AAA seasoning, which he otherwise can’t get due to Rule 5 restrictions. Then again, they (justifiably) don’t really seem to trust the trio of catchers in the Majors right now, so they might rush Susac back to San Francisco as soon as he can handle it.

On the pitching front, RHP Keaton Winn made a rehab appearance on Wednesday and pitched a scoreless inning, with a walk and a strikeout. It was Winn’s 3rd rehab appearance, with 1 each in rookie ball, Low-A, and AAA. He can’t single-handedly fix San Francisco’s wretched bullpen, but he sure can help!

And rounding out the rehabs was RHP Jason Foley, who had far and away his best performance thus far, striking out the side in a perfect Thursday inning, while throwing 10 of 12 pitches for strikes. Foley’s rehab has been fairly unsightly, so this was good to see.

There was some excitement in Wednesday’s game, as LHP Cesar Perdomo made his AAA debut and pitched quite well. Perdomo had a high class season with AA Richmond — “breakout” might be a slightly exaggerative word, but he certainly cemented himself as an exciting prospect, with a 3.98 ERA, a 3.56 FIP, 11.1 strikeouts per 9, and 2.7 walks per 9 … stats that ranked 11th, 6th, 9th, and 10th, respectively, out of the 43 Eastern League pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings this year.

With LHP Carson Whisenhunt (No. 8 CPL) heading back to the Majors, the Giants called on the 24-year old Perdomo to try his hand at AAA and he delivered on Wednesday, throwing 5 innings while allowing just 3 hits, 2 walks, and 1 run, and striking out 6. The only stain on his resume was a home run allowed to former Major Leaguer Kyren Paris. That’s quite a performance!

What followed, however, was odd: after Winn pitched (and before LHP Reiver Sanmartin struck out 3 in 2 scoreless frames), there was a relief inning from LHP Joe Whitman (No. 26 CPL). Whitman pitched in relief on Sunday, and it seemed like that was primarily due to it being his regular pitching day coinciding with LHP Matt Wilkinson’s return. But now he pitched an honest to goodness relief inning (0 hits, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts), and I’m a bit at a loss for explanation. Whitman certainly hasn’t been forced out of the rotation due to depth — he’s a higher-rated prospect than Perdomo, and certainly higher-rated than tonight’s starter, LHP Seth Lonsway — and there’s really no reason to start converting him into a reliever. Perhaps the Giants are just using some relief outings, mixed with the upcoming All-Star break (it coincides with Major League’s), to get Whitman a little midseason breather, given that he’s already at 80.1 innings, which leads all Giants prospects (though Whisenhunt has more if you include his MLB time). Either way, something to keep an eye on.

Thursday’s starter was RHP Blade Tidwell (No. 9 CPL) and he was decent, as he needed just 80 pitches to go 6 innings deep, while giving up 6 hits, 1 walk, and 3 runs, with 6 strikeouts. 3 of the 6 hits went for extra bases, though, including — like Perdomo — a homer ceded to Paris. Tidwell has been fairly sharp lately, and in his last 3 games has a 19-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, with 14 hits and 4 runs in 17 innings. It seems likely that the Giants will have 2 holes in their rotation after the trade deadline, and Whisenhunt and Tidwell seem the pitchers to fill them.

Also pitching on Thursday was RHP Eric Cerantola, whom the Giants recently claimed. He made his organizational debut and pitched a scoreless frame with 1 hit and 1 strikeout.

It was a quiet pair of games on offense, save for great performances from 2 outfielders: center fielder/right fielder Scott Bandura hit 4-6 with a 2-run home run, a walk, a sacrifice fly, a stolen base, and 2 strikeouts, while left fielder/center fielder Turner Hill went 4-7 with a solo home run, a triple, a walk, and a stolen base.

Bandura, a soon-to-turn 25-year old who was taken in the 7th round in 2023, is starting to make his adjustments in AAA, and is up to a .726 OPS and a 90 wRC+ through 43 games, with 6 stolen bases in 7 attempts. Over his last 13 games, he’s gone 15-44 with 6 extra-base hits, 9 walks, and just 8 strikeouts.

Hill just keeps on raking, as the 27-year old UDFA has an .871 OPS and a 131 wRC+, with 16 stolen bases in 18 attempts. With Jonah Cox and Harrison Bader injured, Grant McCray rehabbing, and Victor Bericoto leaving last night’s game with an apparent injury, Hill could potentially be looking at an MLB debut. The slap hitter has certainly taken advantage of the Pacific Coast League environment: he has 6 home runs in 64 AAA games this year — at the time of his promotion earlier this season, he had 5 home runs in 281 career games across all levels.

AA Richmond (52-30)

Wednesday: Richmond Flying Squirrels lost to the Altoona Curve 8-5 [box score]
Thursday: Richmond Flying Squirrels beat the Altoona Curve 5-3 [box score]

A few days ago, it was third baseman Parks Harber (No. 17 CPL) who hit a flurry of home runs in a short stretch. This time, it was another player who plays third (though he was a first baseman and designated hitter in these games): Sabin Ceballos (No. 43 CPL).

Ceballos made it clear that his power is emphatically back, as he went 3-7 with a walk … and with all 3 of his hits clearing the fences. Ceballos, a 23-year old who was taken in the 3rd round in 2023, has seen his power come in waves after needing some adjustment time. When the Giants traded Jorge Soler for him in 2024, he was sitting on just 3 home runs in 377 plate appearances with Atlanta’s High-A affiliate … and then, for the rest of the season, bashed 7 dingers in just 140 plate appearances with San Francisco’s High-A squad.

Last year he spent the full season with Richmond, and hit 6 home runs in 420 plate appearances. This year? 13, in just 299 plate appearances. You love to see that!

Ceballos, who has a .788 OPS and a 111 wRC+ on the year, with quality defense at third when Harber vacates the position, continues to have one strange quirk in AA: he has a hard time getting hits. He draws a lot of walks (11.2% rate last year; 12.7% this year) and does a strong job limiting strikeouts (17.4% last year; 20.1% this year). And yet, despite that, he had just a .273 BABIP in 2025, and a lowly .256 mark this year, leading to batting overages of .232 and .234, respectively. Given that he’s got the power, the plate discipline, the swing-and-miss avoidance, and the defense … he could really become something special if he can figure out how to turn that contact into hits!

Speaking of power surges, they continue for right fielder Jean Carlos Sio (No. 44 CPL), who only hit 1-7 over these pair of games (with a walk, a strikeout, and an outfield assist), but the hit was a big fly. Despite his small frame, the 22-year old lefty — who had very limited power early in his career — is up to 12 home runs on the season, despite getting a late start with an injury. He’s tied for 5th in the system in home runs, and just 38th in plate appearances.

The overall package is still in need of some adjustments — Sio has a .768 OPS and a 95 wRC+ in 29 games since getting promoted — but considering that he plays all over the infield and outfield, and is nearly 2 years younger than his average peer in the Eastern League, it’s certainly time to be excited about Sio.

The best pitching performance came from Thursday’s starter, LHP Greg Farone. It’s been a very difficult 2nd season for the 2024 7th rounder, but this was his 2nd fantastic start in a row, as he dealt 5 innings of 1-run ball, while allowing just 1 baserunner per inning (3 singles, 1 walk, and 1 hit batter), and striking out 6. He was efficient and lived in the zone, throwing 53 of 82 pitches for strikes.

After finishing June with 17 earned runs, and just 16 strikeouts to 15 walks in 21 innings, Farone has opened July with an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 innings, with only 1 run allowed. Perhaps he’s starting to figure it out!

RHP Yunior Marte (No. 25 CPL), unfortunately, had a rough go of it, giving up 9 hits (5 of which went for extra bases) in just 3.2 innings, tagging him for 8 runs and 6 earned runs. The future is quite bright for the soon-to-turn 23-year old, who had 2 strikeouts, but his AA adjustment has been difficult, as he has a 5.74 ERA and a 4.73 FIP through 7 starts. He is doing fairly well with strikeouts and walks, though, as he has 10.3 and 2.9 per 9, respectively.

LHP Dale Stanavich struck out all 3 batters he faced, as he has started to find a groove. The 27-year old, signed in April as a Minor League free agent, has given up just 11 hits and 3 runs in 12 innings since the start of June, with 20 strikeouts against just 4 walks. LHP Jack Choate (No. 37 CPL) also had a nice relief outing, allowing just 1 hit in 2.2 innings, with 3 strikeouts. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.92 FIP on the season, and has been excellent at pretty much everything except limiting walks. So it was nice to see him not issue any in this game.

High-A Eugene (50-34)

Wednesday: Eugene Emeralds beat Spokane 10-2 [box score]
Thursday: Eugene Emeralds lost to Spokane 4-1 [box score]

The Emeralds might have lost on Thursday, but it featured the best performance of the 2 days, for any Giants affiliate, thanks to one player who is putting his season together in a hurry: LHP Jacob Bresnahan (No. 11 CPL). Bresnahan started the season injured, then moved into rust, then moved into good pitching, and on Thursday, graduated to greatness. The just-turned 21-year old pitched 6 innings and allowed just 2 hits (though admittedly 1 left the park) and 1 run, while striking out a whopping 11 Spokane hitters. 11!

He did walk 3 batters, which has been his weakness this year and in prior years, as his 4.2 walks per 9 allowed is right in line with what he’s done at previous levels. But other than that, it was a truly exceptional day for half of the Alex Cobb return.

For Bresnahan, who lowered his ERA to 3.02 (though his FIP is just 4.42, due to 1.1 home runs allowed per 9 innings), it was his 4th consecutive dominant outing and his 4th consecutive start in which he went at least 6 innings. That’s largely missing in the system, so fabulous to see.

Over those last 4 starts, Bresnahan has pitched 24.1 innings and allowed just 9 hits, 7 walks, and 2 runs, with 28 strikeouts. The home run and walk suppression may need work, but 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings and just 37 hits allowed in 59.2 innings is very exciting. Among the 42 Northwest League pitchers with at least 40 innings this year, Bresnahan is 5th in ERA, 13th in strikeouts per 9, and 2nd in batting average against (.174). All while being more than 2 years younger than the average pitcher in the league. What a year he’s suddenly having!

It was a decent start for RHP Hunter Dryden as well, as the 2024 17th rounder handled 5.1 innings of 1-run ball on Wednesday, giving up 5 hits (including a home run), 2 walks, and 1 hit batter, while striking out 4. Dryden had really been struggling lately — he’d allowed 20 earned runs in 26 innings since the start of June coming into this start — so great to see him have a good outing. He has a 4.78 ERA and a 5.42 FIP and, like Bresnahan, is struggling with both walks (5.2 per 9) and home runs (1.4 per 9).

But a great relief outing from RHP Gerelmi Maldonado (No. 21 CPL), who pitched a perfect inning with 2 strikeouts. The strikeouts are never surprising for the flamethrower, who has a staggering 31 of them in 20.2 innings. Seeing him not walk anyone, however, is surprising, as this was just the 3rd time this year he’d pitched at least an inning without issuing a walk, and in total he has 27 of them, good for 11.8 per 9 innings. That needs to come way way way way down.

Wednesday was a superstar showing from right fielder Lisbel Diaz (No. 32 CPL), who hit a perfect 4-4 and finished a triple shy of the cycle, while knocking in 3 runs. Diaz, who went 1-4 on Thursday, just keeps showing off the power, as he’s now tied with his teammate Dakota Jordan (No. 5 CPL) for 2nd most home runs on the farm (15), despite having 74 fewer plate appearances.

As I’ve talked about repeatedly with Diaz, all the tools are there, it just hasn’t all worked out. Despite all those home runs (3 of which were in Low-A), and despite a delightful 16.6% strikeout rate, Diaz’s OPS and wRC+ are fairly middle of the road, at .772 and 98, respectively. But the tools are worth dreaming on (he also has an absolute cannon of an arm), especially since he’s more than 2.5 years younger than the average hitter in the league (he turns 21 next weekend). The future is (hopefully!) bright.

Left fielder Carlos Gutierrez (No. 18 CPL) and catcher Jancel Villarroel (No. 42 CPL) also had brilliant Wednesdays, with Gutierrez hitting 2-3 with 2 walks and a strikeout, and Villarroel going 2-4 with a double and a walk. Gutierrez, who went 1-4 with a strikeout on Thursday, has an .802 OPS and a 117 wRC+, while Villarroel, who didn’t play Thursday, has an .892 OPS and a 139 wRC+. Both players are still just 21, and both have strikeout rates at or below 20%.

A brutal pair of games for first baseman Jakob Christian (No. 40 CPL), who hit 1-8 with 7 strikeouts. Christian, a 5th-round pick in 2024, has always had good numbers with awful strikeout rates, and that’s no different this year, as he has a .782 OPS, a 111 wRC+, and a 33.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, that’s not really a recipe for success at higher levels.

Low-A San Jose (52-32)

Wednesday: San Jose Giants beat the Visalia Rawhide 15-4 [box score]
Thursday: San Jose Giants beat the Visalia Rawhide 11-3 [box score]

The Baby Giants are officially back and rolling, as, following a midseason slide, they’ve now won 10 games in a row! Holy guacamole!

It was the long ball that led the way for San Jose, and above all else, it was first baseman Jeremiah Jenkins, who hit 5-10 with 3 home runs, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts, and 7 runs batted in. That’s certainly a damn good pair of days at the office!

Jenkins, a 14th-round pick in 2024, is quietly having a very strong offensive season. He’s tied for 5th in the system with 12 home runs, which he’s paired with a sky-high 15.8% walk rate. Add in the .917 OPS and the 124 wRC+, and it’s been a very memorable campaign for the left-hander.

You might read that and think he’s someone we should be talking about more but, unfortunately, the season isn’t lacking for warts, either. Jenkins has a scary 30.5% strikeout rate, and is nearly 2 years older than the average Cal League hitter. Add in the fact that he’s exclusively a first baseman (and thus really needs to hit), and there’s as much reason for skepticism as optimism. Still! A good year worth celebrating.

Speaking of good years, that’s exactly what third baseman/second baseman Isaiah Barkett is having, and he showed off in these games as well, hitting 5-9 with a home run, 2 doubles, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts. The Giants have to be utterly thrilled with the debut season from last year’s 10th-round selection, as he has an .887 OPS, a 124 wRC+, and just an 8.6% strikeout rate. He also plays strong defense at second and third, and has even logged innings at first base and right field this year.

Left fielder Angel Guzman made his Low-A debut after a recent promotion and had quite a showing, homering in his 1st game! Over the course of the 2 games, the 20-year old lefty went 3-9 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Welcome to San Jose, Angel!

Rounding out the dinger party was catcher Daniel Rogers, who hit 2-6 with a solo shot. Rogers, a 24-year old UDFA in his 2nd season, has hit very well with San Jose, but has played sparingly. He’s appeared in just 11 games for the Baby Giants, plus 11 more for Eugene this year.

Not homering but playing very well was shortstop Lorenzo Meola (No. 23 CPL), who hit 3-9 with a triple, a double, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts, and a stolen base. Meola now has a 5-game hitting streak, during which time he’s 11-21 with 5 extra-base hits, 4 walks, and just 4 strikeouts, bringing him up to a .762 OPS and an 89 wRC+, with 9 stolen bases in 12 attempts.

The starting pitching performances were encouraging, if not particularly successful. LHP Jordan Gottesman started on Wednesday and struck out 6 batters in 4.1 innings, but also allowed 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs, while needing 84 pitches to get his 13 outs. RHP Ben Bybee had a similar outing on Thursday, striking out 7 batters in 5.2 innings, but allowing 6 hits (including 2 home runs), 1 walk, and 3 runs.

The pair, who are in their debut seasons, are not having the best campaigns, as Gottesman (last year’s 6th-round pick) has a 4.48 ERA and a 5.31 FIP, while Bybee (taken 2 rounds later) has a 5.08 ERA and a 5.13 FIP. Both players are doing a great job limiting walks, though.

RHP Samir Chires, a 22-year old from Venezuela, made his Low-A debut and it went swimmingly, as he struck out 2 batters in a scoreless inning, with a hit allowed. It’s a long time coming for Chires, who was signed in 2021 and, prior to his promotion, was in his 4th season in the ACL.

Joining him was RHP Chen-Hsun Lee, a 24-year old from Taiwan who also made his Low-A debut, and also pitched well, throwing 2 scoreless frames with a hit and a strikeout. Lee, who signed in 2023 but pitched just 4 times that year before suffering injuries that cost him all of 2024 and 2025, has some really nasty stuff, but is still trying to figure out how to harness it. Great to see him in affiliated ball.

Arizona Complex League (28-21)

Thursday: ACL Giants lost to the ACL Guardians 6-3 [box score]

Not the most exciting game. AAA center fielder Grant McCray continued his rehab and hit 1-2 with a hit by pitch, while stealing 2 bases. He should be nearly ready to head back to Sacramento.

The best offensive day belonged to catcher Broedy Poppell, who hit 2-4 with a strikeout. Last year’s 13th-round pick has a .952 OPS but just a 102 wRC+ since getting sent from Low-A down to the ACL to work as a catcher.

Second baseman Josuar González had a nice game, hitting 1-3 with 2 walks and a stolen base, though he also had a strikeout and a caught stealing. The 18-year old switch-hitting sensation has a 1.037 OPS and a 158 wRC+, with 7 stolen bases in 9 attempts. I’m starting to wonder if we might see him in San Jose before the ACL season even ends.

Really strong relief showings from LHP Jose Rengel and RHP Jose T. Perez. Rengel pitched 2 perfect innings with 4 strikeouts, while Perez struck out 2 in a perfect frame. It’s been a brutal pass through the ACL for Rengel, who has had an ERA in the 7s in all 3 years at the level. Nice to see him have a great game. Perez is also having a tough season (4.82 ERA and 5.48 FIP in the ACL, with far worse numbers during a short Low-A stint), but his strikeout stuff is firmly on display. The 22-year old has struck out 32 batters in just 18.2 Complex League innings.

Dominican Summer League Orange (17-11)

Wednesday: DSL Giants Orange beat the DSL Mariners 3-2 (7 innings) [box score]

Just a single DSL game, as the Giants Orange team had Thursday off, while the Giants Black squad didn’t play Wednesday, and had their Thursday game postponed in the 2nd inning due to weather.

A pair of nice hitting games from second baseman Yoxander Benitez and first baseman Albert Jimenez. Benitez, a 19-year old in his 3rd season, hit 1-2 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout, bringing his OPS to .763 and his wRC+ to 98 … not great numbers, but better than past years, and he’s not striking out much. Jimenez, also a 19-year old in his 3rd season, went 2-3 with a double, and now has a 1.059 OPS and a 143 wRC+, with more walks than strikeouts. A very nice season for the righty.

RHP Jesus Lopez was the star on the mound, tossing 3 scoreless innings with 1 hit and 2 strikeouts. It’s been a pretty tough year for the 21-year old, who is in the DSL for a 4th straight year, but he’s been a little better lately. Hopefully it can hold.

Home run tracker

15 — Lisbel Diaz — [12 in High-A; 3 in Low-A]
13 — Sabin Ceballos x3 — [AA]
12 — Jean Carlos Sio — [7 in AA; 4 in High-A; 1 in ACL]
12 — Jeremiah Jenkins x3 — [Low-A]
6 — Scott Bandura — [3 in AAA; 3 in AA]
6 — Turner Hill — [AAA]
5 — Isaiah Barkett — [Low-A]
3 — Angel Guzman — [1 in Low-A; 2 in ACL]
3 — Daniel Rogers — [Low-A]

Friday schedule

Sacramento: 6:45 p.m. PT vs. Salt Lake (SP: Seth Lonsway)
Richmond: 3:00 p.m. PT at Altoona (SP: Charlie McDaniel)
Eugene: 6:35 p.m. PT vs. Spokane (SP: Niko Mazza)
San Jose: 6:35 p.m. PT at Visalia (SP: TBD)

Reminder that almost all MiLB games can be watched on MLB TV

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Full-slate Friday is filled with a ton of exciting matchups, with plenty of players set up for success, with others facing much tougher spots.

Check out my favorite MLB picks for Friday, July 10.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Tanner Gordon	Over 2.5 earned runs	-121
Munetaka Murakami	Over 1.5 total bases	+132
Kyle Schwarber	Over 1.5 total bases	+104

Tanner Gordon Over 2.5 earned runs (-121)

Waking up this morning and seeing Tanner Gordon set to face NINE elite rated San Francisco Giants bats this evening nearly forced me to write about it.

It does not end there, as San Francisco also has three hitters with strong ratings, meaning whoever is in the starting lineup should have a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies starter.

The Giants have been dominating at the dish over the past week, owning a .360 wOBA, 136 wRC+, and an .822 OPS while generating a 10.3% barrel rate over their last six games.

Meanwhile, Gordon has been a complete mess in his last five outings, posting an 8.14 ERA, 5.35 xERA, and a 1.81 WHIP.

With the amount of Giants hitters in a great spot on Batters-Box, I have to back San Francisco in this spot.

• Time: 10:X15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, NBCSBA

Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 total bases (+132)

I am a firm believer that Chicago White Sox star first baseman Munetaka Murakami is going to come back with a bang. 

Entering today with the second-highest matchup rating, Murakami has already shown some of the strongest trends on Batters-Box through nearly 30 games. He surpasses 2+ bases 51.72% of the time while also hitting a home run 41.38% of the time. Not to mention, he owns a 64.3% arsenal coverage rate against Aaron Civale.

The Athletics right hander has been getting crushed by left handed bats all season long, allowing a 43.8% hard hit rate, 8.9% barrel rate, and 71.9% elevation rate. Those left-handed hitters are also posting a .486 xSLG and .346 xwOBA against Civale this season.

We are getting a great price here. If I had to, I would take this down to +120, or simply look at the home run market for a little extra #FUN.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, NBCSCA

Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases (+104)

I have been on Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber all week long, and he is in yet another spot where I think he is due to boom, as he draws Detroit Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty.

Schwarber owns over 70% arsenal coverage against Flaherty's pitch mix. Plus, over his last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, he has generated a 70% hard hit rate, a .321 ISO, and an 18.1% barrel rate.

Meanwhile, Flaherty has allowed lefties to feast all season. Left-handed hitters are producing a 46.7% hard-hit rate, a 9.2% barrel rate, and nearly a 70% elevation rate against him.

Knowing how much hard contact Schwarber can generate, this feels like another great spot for him.

Do not pay juice for his total bases prop. If the price gets too high, pivot to his home run or double prop instead.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DSN, NBCSP

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Mets have made a couple of moves before Friday's game against the Red Sox. 

The biggest news is Mark Vientos officially landing on the IL with what's being called a right hand fracture. 

Andy Green said that this was the expected outcome for Vientos after he left Thursday afternoon's victory in the bottom of the second following a tough HBP on the hand. 

It's unclear if Vientos will require surgery, but he will certainly be out for awhile. 

In a corresponding roster move, infielder Zack Short has been selected to the major league roster. 

Short appeared in three games this season for the Mets, but he was DFA'd following Francisco Lindor's return. 

Additionally, the club has DFA'd right-handed pitcher Dan Hammer after being up with them for just one game, and Tobias Myers is back up in the big-leagues after being optioned prior to Thursday's game. 

Myers has struggled of late, allowing at least one run in each of his last 10 major league outings. 

Worcester Red Sox 8, Rochester Red Wings 7 (BOX)

A game that seemed like a laugher, in favor of the Woo Sox, turned into a wild one at Polar Park on Thursday against the Red Wings (WAS). The craziness started in the top of the third with Nick Sogard starting a triple play on a caught line drive, with the runners going on the pitch.

This play sparked the Woo Sox to get eight runs over the next two innings. Andrew Knizner knocked in three runs on a double in the third, Sogard knocked in two on a ground rule double, and Mickey Gasper knocked in the eighth run on an RBI single.

After Tyler Uberstine went three innings in relief to get the win, some familiar names for fans of the major league club had a rough go in relief. Tyler Samaniego allowed four hits and two runs, before Alec Gamboa allowed seven baserunners and three runs to finish the 8-7 win.

On Friday, Raymond Burgos (1-4, 6.25) will take the mound for Worcester at 6:45.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats 15, Portland Sea Dogs 8 (BOX)

The Sea Dogs and Fisher Cats (TOR) played in a similar slugfest on Thursday, before New Hampshire broke things open with a six-spot in the eighth inning.

Gage Ziehl got the start and didn’t have it, allowing three home runs and eight earned in three innings. The Sea Dogs stayed in the game, cutting the lead to 9-7 after five, thanks to Brooks Brannon’s 13th home run, and Nate Baez’s 9th, a three run shot.

Not to be forgotten while trailing big in the ninth, Franklin Arias dropped his 18th home run of the season.

Once again…

John Holobetz (4-3, 4.57) will get the ball on Friday at 6:03 (???) ET.

Greenville Drive 5, Greensboro Grasshoppers 4 (BOX)

A couple of big flies powered the Drive to a 5-4 win on Thursday against the Grasshoppers (PIT). Antonio Anderson hit his fifth in the third inning, followed by Justin Gonzales’s 11th moments later.

Calvin Bickerstaff got the bulk of the work pitching, throwing 4 1/3 innings to get his fifth win, striking out five and allowing just one run. Steven Brooks got his sixth save.

Marcus Phillips (0-4, 6.75) will toe the rubber for the Drive at 7:00 on Friday.

Columbia Fireflies 10, Salem RidgeYaks 5 (BOX)

RidgeYaks pitchers Jacob Meyers and Brady Tygart were tagged early and often on Thursday, with the Fireflies (KC) opening up a 9-4 lead after five innings. Catcher Adonys Guzman was the star offensively, knocking in a run with a single early and homering in the fifth.

The RidgeYaks will send Christian Foutch (0-5, 6.18) to the hill on Friday at 7:05.

The days of the promising 2024 Royals team that squared off with the Yankees in the postseason are well in the past. Bobby Witt Jr. remains every bit of one of the most exciting players in the game, but the talent around him has not blossomed in the way this team had hoped for, KC now sitting with one of the worst records in the American League. Witt Jr., self-evidently, is untouchable, but even with a team as underwhelming as the Royals, one can find specific pieces whose pursuit is worthwhile for a team looking to improve around the margins.

The Yankees need help at the catching position, and Salvador Perez’s experience makes for a good match—at least until you get a look at the numbers he has put up this season, currently with a .603 OPS, by far and away the worst of his career. Youngster Carter Jensen, who has received the bulk of the playing time behind the dish, is controllable until 2032 and not going anywhere. If the Yankees are going to look to the Royals for improvements, they’ll need to do so beyond the catching position.

One of the reasons why this Royals season hasn’t gone according to plan is Vinnie Pasquantino—on his way back from the IL as we speak—and when he was out there, he was putting up the worst season of his career, with an OPS+ of 88. Any deal for the left-handed bat controllable through the 2028 campaign would be tricky. Surely, the Royals won’t want to sell low after one bad year, but justifying leaving the DH spot for Giancarlo Stanton becomes harder and harder with each injury setback.

There is no doubt that the most reasonable path to improving your roster by dealing with the Royals is on the pitching side of things, even if, as a whole, their staff has been a far bigger disappointment than their lineup. A recent report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has noted reluctance on KC’s part to deal Michael Wacha and/or Seth Lugo, seeking a return likely to be too great for most teams to be willing to pay. While losing either or both of these starters would severely hurt this team’s pitching staff, we’re talking about veterans controllable only through the end of next season. And the Royals are not a team one might describe as being a few tweaks away from contention, particularly not with Cole Ragans’ injury woes that will keep him sidelined until at least the middle of next season.

The AL leader in innings pitched at 114.2 frames, Wacha is having his fifth straight very reliable campaign, fully acquitted to his role a trusty veteran innings-eater. Since the start of 2022, Wacha has an ERA+ of 120 in over 700 innings for three different teams. Asking for a significant return for him is justifiable, but when it comes to Lugo, he has failed to live up to his 2024 numbers, his first season with the Royals. Since the start of last season, Lugo has a 4.32 ERA and 1.350 WHIP, and it’s not as if the $21.5 million he’ll make next year could be seen as a team-friendly deal.

Possessing little to no strikeout stuff in its bullpen outside of Steven Cruz, the Royals don’t entice the buyer on the reliever market. It wasn’t that long ago that Matt Strahm was a dominant reliever, though, and as a pending free agent, he may attract some attention despite a season ERA north of 5.00. Another lefty, Daniel Lynch IV, is the only option when it comes to someone actually performing well this season, boasting a WHIP under 1.00.

One of the few guaranteed sellers at the moment, the Royals could use that to their advantage, but in the end, most teams will only go so far, the Yankees among them.

The Cubs make their first 2026 visit to Great American Ballpark, just as we’re about to hit the All-Star break. They’ll return down the stretch, in mid-September.

For more on the Reds, here’s Wick Terrell, manager of our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.

The Cincinnati Reds are a mess. Stop me if you’ve heard that before!

Mired in last place in the NL Central once again, the Reds have somehow managed to not just be bad, but to collapse in the most hilarious manner imaginable. For instance, despite 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, 2B Matt McLain, and OF TJ Friedl having been perhaps the single most woeful trio offensively to begin the year, the Reds managed to pile up wins in one-run games and surge as many as nine games over .500 by the end of April. All that came without Hunter Greene, who missed most all of the first half of the season after elbow surgery!

As things got so bleak with Hayes and Friedl, in particular, we saw an IL stint come for their 3B and an outright demotion for Friedl, who at one point recently was one of the better leadoff men in baseball. And the moment those two got demoted, the team simply became incapable of winning anything!

Old heads will point to the fact that the entire back of the bullpen (Emilio Pagan, Tony Santillan, and Graham Ashcraft) as well as Eugenio Suarez and Elly De La Cruz getting hurt at the same time may have helped derail the season. Twitter reply folks would beg to differ, however.

Either way, the Reds are flirting with being double-digit games under .500 after owning the single worst record in the game through May and June, and are heading into the All-Star break destined to be sellers once again. That is, of course, barring a miracle series against the Cubs at home to wrap the season’s first half, in which case they’ll probably try to maintain status quo until the absolute last seeing as they simply have no initiative in either direction ever.

Fun facts

The Cubs and Reds have played 2,433 games since the Reds joined the National League in 1890. In all those years, the Cubs have won exactly 23 more games than the Reds, 1,217 to 1,194, with 22 ties.

The difference was only 19 games before the Cubs swept four games at Wrigley Field on May 4-7.

In their final trip to Cincinnati last season, on Sept. 18-21, the Cubs lost four straight, the first and last both by 1-0. They had won two of three at Great American Ball Park earlier in the year.

The Cubs’ last sweep at Cincinnati was three games June 27-29, 2016. They have played 24 series there since then, including four in which they won the first two games and lost the third.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (5-7 , 4.28 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 4.67 FIP) vs. Hunter Greene, RHP (0-1, 21.60 ERA, 3.300 WHIP, 6.42 FIP)

Saturday: Javier Assad, RHP (6-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 5.11 FIP) vs. Nick Lodolo, LHP (3-2, 4.68 ERA, 1.457 WHIP, 5.04 FIP)

Sunday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (4-1, 4.31 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 3.27 FIP) vs. Andrew Abbott, LHP (5-5, 3.92 ERA, 1.406 WHIP, 4.91 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Saturday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Sunday: 12:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

Lots of lefty starters in this series! The Cubs have improved their record vs. LH starters, as it now stands a game over .500 at 12-11, even while their OPS vs. LHB compared to vs. RHB is now about equal.

Cubs pitching has been pretty good lately so I’ll say two of three.

Up next

The All-Star break! Pete Crow-Armstrong will go to Philadelphia as the Cubs’ sole representative for Tuesday’s All-Star Game. The Cubs will resume the 2026 regular season Friday evening at Wrigley Field when they begin a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins.

The 2026 MLB Draft has a different feel to it for many reasons, including the Dodgers having their smallest bonus pool ever and the timing of the festivities themselves.

Rather than starting on Sunday or Monday as has been the norm ever since Major League Baseball moved the draft to align with the All-Star break, this time the draft will start on Saturday. The 20-round affair was shortened from three days to two last year and that schedule remains, which means the 2026 draft will conclude on Sunday, before any of the major league All-Star events have even happened.

Dodgers bonus pool

The Dodgers signing Edwin Díaz and Kyle Tucker, both free agents who declined qualifying offers, meant the Dodgers forfeited four early draft picks. They lost their second- and fifth-round selections for signing Díaz, then dropped third- and sixth-round picks once Tucker was brought into the fold.

Couple that with the Dodgers blowing well past the third competitive balance tax threshold last season, which dropped their first round pick 10 slots to 40th overall, the Dodgers have the lowest bonus pool of any MLB team this year, and their lowest-ever bonus pool in the 15 years of the recommended slot value system.

Draft bonus pools are derived from the total recommended slot values for every pick through the end of round 10.

Every signing bonus from the first 10 rounds count against the bonus pool, plus any signing bonus over $150,000 for any player drafted in the 11th round or later. Teams can spend up to five percent over their draft bonus pool and pay only a 75 percent tax on the overage. Any spending more than five percent over the bonus pool triggers more punitive penalties, including forfeiture of future draft picks. To date, no MLB team under the current slotting system has spent enough to trigger loss of draft picks.

How to watch

The first 135 picks of the draft happens on Saturday, which includes the first four rounds plus all competitive balance rounds, compensation picks, and prospect promotion incentive selections.

Saturday’s television and streaming coverage is fragmented, with NBC and Peacock showing the first 10 picks after a preview show, followed by MLB Network televising picks 11-40, that final selection belonging to the Dodgers.

MLB.com and MLB.tv will stream everything beginning with pick 11 through the end of the 20th round on Sunday. Day 2 is a nonstop ride, with 16 rounds all on one day.

Saturday, July 11 (rounds 1-4)
11 a.m. PT: Picks 1-10 (NBC, Peacock)
11:30 a.m: Picks 11-40 (MLB Network)
Streaming from 11th pick through round 4 on MLB.com and MLB.tv

Saturday, July 12 (rounds 5-20)
8:30 a.m. PT: MLB.com, MLB.tv

The Dodgers have two selections on Saturday (first round, 40th overall; and fourth round, 132nd overall), and 14 on Sunday.

After a long delay, the Red Sox made it to New York for their weekend series with the Mets. However, the travel issues caused MLB to push back first pitch from its original 7:15 p.m. start time to 7:50 p.m.

Following their win over the White Sox on Wednesday afternoon, the Red Sox dealt with "multiple plane issues," per Tim Healey of the Boston Globe.

Per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, as of roughly 2 p.m. on Friday, the Sox were set to land at LaGuardia Airport at 4:10 p.m., but eventually landed around 4:40 p.m. and got to CitiField a little after 5 p.m.

"Definitely something I don't think any of us have experienced that before," Red Sox pitcher Garrett Whitlock said before Friday's game. "But hey, that's travel nowadays"

Two years ago, the Orioles hosted the Royals in the Wild Card round. Baltimore had just finished the regular season 91-71, a drop from their previous 101-61 record in 2023, but still good enough for second place in the daunting American League East and for the top Wild Card spot.

Despite dropping the series in two games to Kansas City, it looked like Baltimore was set up for the future. It wouldn’t have shocked anyone for the Orioles to continue making the playoffs and reaching the ALCS, if not beyond.

Instead, mirroring the Royals’ path, the Orioles bombed in 2025 and don’t look all that much better in 2026. Last year, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, Baltimore fell to last in the East, finishing 75-87, 19 games back of first place. Manager Brandon Hyde, a mortal enemy of my family, didn’t even last 45 games before being ousted.

It didn’t matter.

This season, the Orioles have improved, albeit minimally. Their winning percentage is up, but they remain in the AL East’s cellar, and the playoffs look as far away as they did in 2021, when the Orioles finished an embarrassing 52-110.

Royals fans can relate.

Kansas City Royals (38-56) at Baltimore Orioles (43-51) at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Royals: 4.31 runs scored/game (20th in MLB), 5.11 runs allowed/game (27th in MLB)

Orioles: 4.55 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 4.89 runs allowed/game (23rd in MLB)

Pete Alonso, signed away from the Mets in the offseason, leads the Orioles with 2.0 bWAR as he’s slashed .249/.345/.467 with 20 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 56 runs scored. Another offseason acquisition, this time by trade with the Angels, Taylor Ward leads the team in walks with 71, which has boosted his OBP to a career-high .383 as his slugging has dipped to .352, which would be his worst in a full season. Catcher Adley Rutschman, a/k/a The Only Player Drafted Ahead of Bobby Witt Jr., has bounced back from a very down 2025, though his numbers remain across a chasm from what he posted his first two seasons. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson, drafted in the second round of that same 2019 Draft, is struggling. Long ago are the days are finishing fourth in MVP voting, let alone winning Rookie of the Year in 2023. All told, the Orioles feature six regulars who are posting a below-average OPS, chief among them Henderson, but also starting third baseman Coby Mayo, starting right fielder Tyler O’Neill, and starting center fielder Leody Taveras.

It looks like the Orioles will start 27-year-old Brandon Young tonight. The second-year righthander leads the team in wins with seven while posting a solid 3.89 FIP over 77-and-1/3 innings pitched. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but doesn’t walk many, either. Righties Kyle Brandish and Shane Baz are the projected starters for games two and three of the series. Brandish leads the team in strikeouts but also allows 1.1 home runs per nine innings, worst among Oriole starters with at least 10 starts. Baz sports the team’s best FIP at 3.79, but his strikeouts are down while his walks are up. Not a good combination.

The team’s closer, Ryan Helsley, is out, and so 36-year-old Andrew Kittredge picked up the save in yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Cubs. Reliever Tyler Wells picked up the win yesterday despite allowing the go-ahead run to score. He leads Baltimore relievers in innings pitched while Rico Garcia leads them in appearances with 42. Garcia has a WHIP well under one and strikes out over a batter per inning. Righty Yenier Cano leads all relievers with a 2.65 FIP.

I have no idea what to think of this series. As I stated in the opening paragraphs, two years ago it looked like the Royals and Orioles would be facing each other often once the calendar flipped to October. Clearly, things have changed for both teams, and for the worse.

Case in point: this mid-July series, the last before the All-Star break, has zero consequences for either club. What a shame.

Luinder Avila takes the ball for the Royals tonight. First pitch: 6:05 PM local time.

At least I didn’t have to write “Braves tumble” into St. Louis, though the status of their tumbling remains a distinct possibility. The Braves righted the ship, or at least gave the appearance of righting the ship, a bit in Pittsburgh earlier this week, winning a series for the first time since June 19-21. After starting the season 18-2-1 in terms of series performance, the Braves are just 2-6-1 since (with possibly flipping one of those losses to a tie thanks to a rainout). One of those six recent series losses came against the Cardinals in Atlanta, and the Braves will get a chance to return the favor in St. Louis this weekend, before everyone heads off into the All-Star Break.

The Cardinals did not have a particularly fun time after departing Atlanta. They did take a series from their archrivals, the Cubs… but then lost four of five to the Brewers, putting a sizable dent in their playoff odds (from about 40 percent to about 30 percent). Before the Brewers had their way, the Cardinals held onto the NL’s last playoff spot with a one-game lead over the Marlins; now, they’re three games in what’s become a bit less of a logjam: the three NL Wild Card teams are separated by half a game, with the Braves three games ahead of them… but the Cardinals are part of a second tier of pseudo-contenders a bit further back.

Overall, the Cardinals are 14th in position player fWAR and 21st in pitching fWAR, which doesn’t suggest particularly useful production. However, they have two more wins than suggested by their run differential, and are three wins over what’s indicated by their BaseRuns, so that more or less explains that.

The Braves will have their one “steady” rotation member on the hill for this one, which is good news. But, Chris Sale will need to bounce back a bit, as his most recent outing was one of his worst in a Braves uniform. Sale lasted just five innings against the Mets, allowing two homers and posting a 3/2 K/BB ratio in a blowout win. The performance didn’t really matter in the context of the game, but in a vacuum, it wasn’t great. Sale’s FIP was his second-worst of the season, and his xFIP- for the start was 123 — only the second time this year he’s gone above 100, the only time this season he’s gone above 105, and his fourth-worst mark in any start as a Brave. Sale generally tends to get back to dominance after a poor outing, so there’s no reason to expect anything different here.

Sale has somehow managed to avoid the Cardinals as a Brave thus far, and, in fact, has faced them just twice in his career: once in 2015, and once in 2023. He dominated both times.

On the flip side, the Braves will take aim at 29-year-old Kyle Leahy, whom they didn’t see in Atlanta. Leahy spent 2024 and 2025 pitching long-ish relief for St. Louis, but has ascended to the rotation after some pretty good work in 2025 (1.4 fWAR in 88 innings, though a lot of that coming as a result of a low HR/FB). This season, Leahy’s stats are minorly weird: a 93 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 101 xFIP- are all consistent, but he has this absolutely horrid xERA. Generally, xERA for pitchers doesn’t mean much because it’s so heavily influenced by the batters a pitcher faces, whose exit velocity tends to be more batter-derived than pitcher-influenced and factors into a large part of xERA… but seeing a guy with very generic peripherals and horrendous contact quality is not rare but still kinda weird, especially considering that Leahy didn’t have any contact management issues in 2024-2025.

Overall, Leahy is a true junkballer (legit six-pitch mix) who gets elite extension that makes his mid-90s fastball play up a bit. His pitch shapes don’t look good on paper, but are mitigated somewhat by him offering a harder set of secondaries than batters are generally used to. He has very good command of his four-seamer, sinker, and curve, while the rest of his arsenal is really more of a junkball-y “hope they get bamboozled” sort of thing. So long as the Braves’ lefties can acknowledge that his changeup is generally in the dirt and avoid looking terrible on it, they may be able to get some good hacks in against his four-seamer and curve.

Because of his profile, Leahy is pretty steady and generally throws up the same type of outing, with variance largely around whether fly balls clear the fence. He had a sky-high HR/FB in April (24 percent), but it then fell to around seven percent in May, three percent in June, and is sitting at zero for July so far. As a result, he’s been on a pretty good run for about seven starts FIP-wise, though it’s included a couple of xFIP-based clunkers. If the Braves can actually noodge his HR/FB up, that’ll bode well. If not, it could be another sad BABIP day for the team, at least until they chase him.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Friday, July 10, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO

TV: None

Streaming: Apple TV (le sigh)

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan