BRONX, NY - AUGUST 23: Alejandro Kirk #30 of the Toronto Blue Jays looks on during a game between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on August 23, 2026 in the Bronx, New York. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yesterday’s game was not all that much fun.
I missed that there was a trade yesterday. The Jays sent Sebastian Rodriguez 20-year-old, right-handed pitcher to the Dodgers for José Rodríguez, a right-handed pitcher, who is 25.
José Rodríguez pitched in Triple-A Oklahoma City this season. In 25 games, 3 starts, with a 3.38 ERA. In 29.1 innings he allowed 23 hits, 1 home run, 18 walks and 36 strikeouts. I’m sure you noticed the number of walks, but he does get strikeouts. The Jays wanted him because he’s closer to the majors. As we’ve seen, they have used any nearly major league ready arm they have. The Dodgers were going to be calling him up and he is eligible for the Rule Five draft.
Sebatian has pitched 9 innings of pro-ball, in the Dominican Summer League, so he’d a long way from the major leagues.
Yesterday’s game wasn’t great, but seeing Spence Miles hit 100 mph with his fastball was interesting. He’s averaged 96.0 mph this season.
On Spencer Miles hitting 100 mph tonight, John Schneider said:
“Pete (Walker) and I were looking at each other like, damn, that was pretty good. He continues to impress us.. continues to get better.. running out of good things to say about him.”
We complain about challenges that our catchers get wrong, but Alejandro Kirk has been right 49 times and wrong 32, 15th in baseball among the 44 catchers with 50 challenges Brandon Valenzuela, on the other hand, has been right 22 times and wrong 30 times the lowest percentage in baseball among catchers with more than 50 challenges. I’d be curious to see the numbers if we could just look at first inning challenges. It feels like we get more of those wrong, but it is likely because first inning challenges irritate me, whether they are right or wrong, so when one is wrong it plays into that mindset.
I like to think there are no ‘must win’ games until we get down to either playoffs or the game that will eliminate us from the playoffs, but tonight’s game seems close to a must win game. We have Dylan Cease going. We pretty much need to win his starts.
The red-hot Philadelphia Phillies head into today's series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks as a 52% moneyline favorite, with first pitch scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field.
With Andrew Painter dealing — and Philadelphia in the midst of a six-game winning streak — my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions are targeting the visitors to complete the sweep in Phoenix.
The rookie right-hander owns a 1.63 FIP over his last two starts, pairing a 56.7% ground-ball rate with zero home-run damage. His month-long profile is strong, too, with a 3.05 xERA.
That matters against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that has struggled, posting an 80 wRC+ over its previous seven games. Arizona is turning to Taylor Clarke as an opener, likely for only one or two innings, and its bullpen owns a 4.98 xERA over the last week.
With Painter in form and Philadelphia carrying a 103 wRC+ recently, the Phillies have the edge.
Play to 58%.
COVERS INTEL: Painter has shown real HR suppression lately, allowing 0.66 HR/9 in his last five starts, compared to his season average of 1.56.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (53%)
With the total sitting as high as 9.5, the Under presents value.
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen hasn't been elite, but it isn't giving up many home runs, and Philadelphia isn't exactly exploding offensively despite its recent win streak.
The Phillies’ relief corps is also dialed in behind Painter, posting a 2.98 FIP over the last week while surrendering just 0.52 HR/9. I expect another strong outing from Painter, and his relievers are in the type of form needed to keep Arizona’s out-of-sync lineup in check.
Do not expect a high-scoring finale.
Play this pick to 57%.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Bryce Harper (15%)
Bryce Harper is not carrying a perfect home run profile, but the form is hard to ignore. The Phillies slugger is hitting .458 over his last six games with one homer, a .535 xSLG, and three straight multi-hit performances.
The hard-hit numbers do not jump off the page, but Harper has put nearly 50% of his recent contact in the air, giving him a path to power if he squares one up.
Arizona’s bullpen has also allowed a 40% fly-ball rate over the last two weeks while giving up 1.12 HR/9.
Play this pick up to 17%.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 64-73, -17.86 units
Over/Under bets: 74-59, +3.50 units
Phillies vs Diamondbacks weather
Weather at Chase Field looks extremely hot and dry, with clear skies and temperatures rising from 98 degrees to 101 during the game window. Winds sit around 6–9 mph, and rain chances are basically nonexistent at 0–2%. Due to the extreme temperatures, though, the dome is scheduled to be closed.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds
Moneyline: Phillies 52% | Diamondbacks 49%
Run line: Phillies -1.5 (40%) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (60%)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (51%) | Under 9.5 (53%)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.75 Units / 46% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Phillies vs Diamondbacks and game info
Location
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026
First pitch
3:40 p.m. ET
TV
NBCSP, DBacks.TV
Phillies starting pitcher
Andrew Painter (3-8, 5.95 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Taylor Clarke (2-3, 2.60 ERA)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Braves at Nationals Under 9.5
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
This abbreviated two-game set saw 14 runs in yesterday's opener, but today's matchup doesn't deserve to have the same total.
The wind is blowing in, there is a slight chance of rain, and the Washington Nationals have the worst schedule spot of the week. The Nats will wrap up today's game and head to Los Angeles to open a series against the Dodgers on Friday. The Atlanta Braves also have a massive weekend series on deck against the Phillies, making this a perfect getaway game.
Grant Holmes has mostly seen closing totals of 8, 8.5, and 9, making 9.5 a long number for a pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA who has recorded scoreless outings in three of his last five starts.
Brad Lord isn't even as bad as he looks for this Under. He's been great since the All-Star break and will likely pitch only three innings, allowing a bridge reliever to get to Washington's high-leverage arms, all of whom are available.
This should close at 9. I love an afternoon getaway game.
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
How to watch: BravesVsn, Nationals.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Mariners moneyline
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
The venue is a major factor in how I handicap this matchup. If the game were being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, I'd view it much differently than I do at Fenway Park.
Sandoval's reliance on his off-speed stuff puts him in a difficult spot against this lineup, particularly at Fenway Park. Some of the fly balls that might die in Seattle's marine layer could turn into extra-base hits off the Green Monster in Boston.
The Mariners are trading at 45% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 50%, which is why I'm backing Seattle.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
How to watch: Mariners.TV, NESN
Neil Parker's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
The Mariners rank 29th in xwOBA with just 3.6 runs per game over the past 30 days, and starter Bryce Miller’s underlying numbers skyrocket away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
With the Red Sox ranking second in wOBA, fourth in ISO, and seventh in xwOBA while averaging 5.4 runs per game over the past 30 days, I’m happy to run counter to my colleague Jon Metler and back Boston to 57.4% this afternoon.
Noah Cameron has been dominant in the second half, posting a 1.29 ERA across his last seven starts, with four scoreless outings.
He'll face a Miami Marlins lineup that's been awful vs. left-handed pitching, ranking 26th in OPS over the past month.
Eury Perez has shown cracks on the road and draws a Kansas City Royals offense that’s been one of baseball’s hottest both at home and against right-handed pitching.
Kansas City is also red-hot at home, where its won seven of its last eight. Add Miami’s inefficient bullpen and a fair price, and there’s plenty of ammo to pull the trigger on the Royals.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
How to watch: Marlins.TV, Royals.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Tigers moneyline
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
The Detroit Tigers need to bounce back after surrendering 26 runs across their first two against the Minnesota Twins, and they may get it with Dean Kremer on the mound for the home team.
Kremer has allowed a homer in three straight starts, and the Tigers have his number, owning a .303 xBA and .510 xSLG across 98 plate appearances.
Now that's a sample size we can get behind.
On the other side, Drew Anderson has been serviceable, owning a career-best 3.91 xERA and 34.1% chase rate. The Tigers are a live 'dog tonight trading at 48 cents, and I'd play them up to 52 at Polymarket.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Milwaukee Brewers have star Jacob Misiorowski toeing the rubber vs. the Chicago Cubs ahead of the third tilt in their four-game series on Wednesday, Sept. 2, and are sizable road favorites.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET, and my top Brewers vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks are calling for another masterclass from Misiorowski paving the way for a Milwaukee win tonight.
Who will win Brewers vs Cubs today: Brewers moneyline (60.6%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
We’re landing a fair number because the Cubbies are an admirable opponent and pace the majors in wOBA while ranking second in xwOBA over the past 14 days.
Still, I don’t have confidence in Chicago lefty David Peterson. His 2.35 ERA across his past eight starts is miles below his underlying 4.39 xERA and 3.73 xFIP. His unsustainable .266 BABIP and 86.5% strand rate during the run also reinforce the screaming statistical correction ahead.
Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53.7%)
Even with the highlighted concerns for Peterson, he’s still allowed two runs or fewer in seven of the eight starts during the noted stretch, and the Brewers rank a middling 15th in wOBA against lefties for the campaign.
Additionally, the Brewers have an elite bullpen behind Misiorowski, with Milwaukee relievers ranking third in xERA and fifth in xFIP in the second half.
As a result, I don't anticipate either team scoring enough to push this total Over the number.
Brewers vs Cubs home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (20%)
Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio sports a .194 ISO against lefties and is rolling along a six-game hitting streak, with three homers, a .481 wOBA, and .370 ISO. With perfect hitting conditions at Wrigley Field tonight, Chourio is trading at a fair price to tee off at the Friendly Confines this evening.
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 48-21, +29.38 units
Over/Under bets: 22-19, +1.74 units
Brewers vs Cubs weather
A 90-degree heat wave and wind blowing out at 10 mph will provide favorable hitting conditions at Wrigley Field tonight.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Moneyline: Brewers 60.8% | Cubs 42.6%
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (50%) | Cubs +1.5 (54.5%)
Over/Under: Over 8 (54.2%) | Under 8 (54.2%)
Brewers vs Cubs trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have won 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.
How to watch Brewers vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026
First pitch
7:40 p.m. ET
TV
Brewers.TV, MARQ
Brewers starting pitcher
Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.73 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
David Peterson (7-7, 5.11 ERA)
Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
It's not an overstatement to say Cam Schlittler has been untouchable on the road this season.
He has a mouth-watering matchup against a putrid offense tonight, making New York an appealing target with my Yankees vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Who will win Yankees vs Angels tonight: New York Yankees (61%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Los Angeles Angelsslot 28th in wOBA and 29th in K% against right-handed pitching the past month, and now they draw Cam Schlittler.
Schlittler ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitching Run Value and 94th percentile in K% this season. He also owns a remarkably strong 1.14 ERA over 15 starts away from Yankee Stadium.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a worse matchup for the Angels to get going offensively.
The New York Yankees are ninth in xwOBA vs. southpaws on the year and seventh over the last month. They’re more likely to support their starter.
Yankees vs Angels Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (49%)
This total is very low and yet I still see value on the Under.
Schlittler has allowed two runs or fewer in 14 of his 15 road starts while chewing up 6.2 innings per game. He has been as good as anybody in the majors, and a miserably cold Angels offense is unlikely to change that.
Reid Detmers owns a 2.84 ERA in pitcher-friendly conditions. The Angels have an excellent bullpen behind him, with only three ‘pens posting a better xERA over the last month.
This strikes me as a 4-2 type of game. I’d play the Under to 51%.
Yankees vs Angels home run prediction: Ben Rice (19%)
Ben Rice hits for real power against pitchers of both handedness, making him a real threat no matter who is in the game.
Detmers attacks righties with a steady diet of fastballs and sliders. That sets up well for Rice, who has generated a .388 ISO and 17.8% barrel rate against those two pitches – both of which are elite outputs.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 96-88, -11.76 units
Over/Under bets: 94-84-6, -2.02 units
Yankees vs Angels trading action
Traders at Polymarket are leaning heavily to the visitors as we look at tonight's market trends and where the money is coming in on Yankees vs. Angels.
Yankees vs Angels weather
Temperatures are expected in the low 70s with slight wind blowing out. Neutral impact on offense.
Yankees vs Angels odds
Moneyline: Yankees 61% | Angels 40%
Run line: Yankees -1.5 (47%) | Angels +1.5 (55%)
Over/Under: Over 6.5 (56%) | Under 6.5 (45%)
Yankees vs Angels trend
Los Angeles has hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.60 units, 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Angels.
How to watch Yankees vs Angels and game info
Location
Angel Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date
Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026
First pitch
9:38 p.m. ET
TV
YES, ABTV
Yankees starting pitcher
Cam Schlittler (12-6, 2.09 ERA)
Angels starting pitcher
Reid Detmers (4-8, 3.54 ERA)
Yankees vs Angels latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
It's Dylan Cease bump day, so you know we have to ride with the ace in our Blue Jays vs. Guardians prediction.
The Toronto Blue Jays are -130 betting favorites at BET99, and our best play of the day centers around the Cy Young Award candidate. Can he limit the Cleveland Guardians' bats and tie the series?
Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Blue Jays vs Guardians predictions
Blue Jays vs Guardians best bet: Dylan Cease Under 4.5 Hits (-120)
Dylan Cease has coughed up more than four hits just once in over a month and is in a prime position to limit the Cleveland Guardians' bats tonight.
Across 114 plate appearances, the Guardians own just a .388 xSLG against him — hard contact from this lineup comes rarely when the Cy Young odds candidate is on the bump, which puts us in a good spot to fly Under the number.
With a hard-hit rate (32.3%) in the 88th percentile among qualified pitchers, don't expect much good contact from Cleveland's bats tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Cease's opponents own a .185 xBA or worse against his four-seamer, slider, and changeup, the three pitches he throws the most.
Blue Jays vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
I don't put this lightly: in the broader scope of the Wild-Card race, this is a must-win game for the Blue Jays. They have their ace on the mound, they dropped Game 1, and are now 2.5 games back of the final spot, which currently belongs to Cleveland.
Elsewhere, Alejandro Kirk has been one of baseball's hottest hitters, owning a .898 OPS since the All-Star break. Let's win our third SGP in four days, shall we?
Blue Jays vs Guardians SGP
Dylan Cease Under 4.5 hits
Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
Alejandro Kirk 2+ hits + runs + RBI
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Blue Jays vs Guardians home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+380)
Kazuma Okamoto is always a good bet to go yard on any given night. He's already registered a dinger against Joey Cantillo, and owns a .860 OPS against lefties this season. I'll fire him up against a pitcher rocking a 38.8% hard-hit rate.
2026 Transparency Record
Best bets: 9-10, +1.53 units
SGPs: 4-15, -0.26 units
Blue Jays vs Guardians odds
Moneyline: Toronto (-130) | Cleveland (+110)
Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+135)| Cleveland +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
Blue Jays vs Guardians trend
The Blue Jays are 9-0 in their last nine games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Guardians and game info
Location
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Date
Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
CleGuardians.TV, SN
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Dylan Cease (9-5, 2.34 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher
Joey Cantillo (9-7, 3.70 ERA)
Blue Jays vs Guardians latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 01: Ketel Marte #4 of the Arizona Diamondbacks prepares his equipment in the dugout before the MLB game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field on September 01, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Diamondbacks News
Phillies Win Series, Separation from Diamondbacks It seems Corbin Carroll’s back is giving him issues, something that is going to need to be addressed in a hurry if the Diamondbacks are going to retain a playoff berth.
Diamondbacks Jockey with Padres, Marlins for Wild Card It would certainly behoove the Diamondbacks to get back to some winning ways sooner rather than later, especially with the Padres and Snakes facing off over the final three games of the regular season.
Corbin Burnes Return Still on Hold Fans will have to wait at least another week before there is a chance of Corbin Burnes returning to the roster. The Diamondbacks could help things along if they could get back to winning. At this point, the pressure to allow Burnes to return is going to be directly proportional to whether or not the Diamondbacks are still contending.
Injury Updates Corbin Burnes needs to build up a bit more. Ryne Nelson and Zac Gallen remain on the comeback trail.
Playoff Contenders’ Remaining Strength of Schedule The Diamondbacks are fortunate to be fifth out of seven in the National League. Unfortunately, the Padres are sixth and the Dodgers, who don’t matter at this stage, are seventh.
Stan Kroenke to Buy Angels The sports mogul owner of the Los Angeles Rams, Arsenal FC, the Denver Nuggets, and the Colorado Avalanche is buying controlling interest in the Los Angeles Angels for a reported $4 Billion.
Yes, Preseason Projections Still Matter The relevant question then becomes how much a few months of performance should change what we thought about a player in March. And as it turns out, it’s less than the folks who find projections frustrating might think.
Ah, yes. That time of the year when you can start to feel the sands of time running out. We root so hard hoping that the series of moves they make from somewhere around November 1 through somewhere around September 1 have built and prepared a team to win a championship. In fairness, 29 of 30 teams fall short of that goal every year. Some of the teams will be rewarded some pretty fun, though still sometimes agonizing, consolation prizes. Depending on just how long you’ve been a Cub fan, you’ve had a whole variety of flavors of consolation prizes. Every decade or so, the rug pull is pretty harsh and leaves some scarring.
This one is probably not one of those, unless this team really pulls together in October unexpectedly. This one should probably feel like getting to the end of Game of Thrones. You really enjoyed the trip. At times, you could really see what they were trying to pull together, the majesty of it all and the intricate storylines being woven together. But by the end, you realized that the artist didn’t know how to satisfyingly finish the painting.
You can certainly feel it. I certainly don’t think it is crazy to think it. If you could somehow pick through the carnage of what feels like hundreds of injuries and have enough guys healthy and effective at the right time that they had enough talent to win it all. Not better than the Dodgers, but good enough to hang with them and capitalize if they aren’t on top of their game when it matters. I’m not and I wouldn’t take anything away from this Brewers team. They are ruthlessly efficient and do so many things right. That’s one excellent team. If their pitching could get really hot, they could win.
So you can feel it coming. You don’t know exactly how or when it will end. When things are going good, this team makes me think about the 2015 Cubs. An ascending team that hadn’t put it all together. I think at this point, that’s the best possible future for this group. That this is the team coming together. That some good percentage of this team comes back and runs it back and wins it all next year. You know, if they come back and play baseball after a work stoppage.
But I think for this year, this team is going to most echo to 2008. A very good team, built to crush the regular season and powered by a hyper-dynamic offense. I’ve said this so many times. The regular season, particularly in the modern game, is won with depth. You need an army to get you through 162 and healthy and geared up to win three or four series to win a championship. But you win in the postseason on the backs of guys who can turn in superstar performances.
The 2016 roster had so many role players. If you listened to the Lovable Reunion, you heard them talk about how every player, every coach, so many front office members had a role to play in getting them to the end. But along the way, you had heroic performances by Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Aroldis Chapman. There were a lot of guys who could just win a game. Or change a whole series. Who are your 2026 Cubs that have that ability? After Pete Crow-Armstrong, maybe Alex Bregman, maybe Clay Holmes. 2026 Kevin Gausman is a supporting piece. Same as Michael Busch.
We’ve seen it all year. Get out of whack? This team pounds you into oblivion. Execute your plan? Yeah, it’s probably not going to be great. The Brewer bullpen just fire hosed the Cub lineup in this game. Meanwhile, rather than putting out the fire, the Cub bullpen was throwing accelerant on it. Matthew Boyd was pretty good, but as soon as he faltered, the Brewers feasted on a bunch of mediocre Cub relievers. This pitching staff is a lot of not ready for prime time players.
85 runs in the last 10 games and the team is 4-6. That says so much about everything. And not that I’m advocating for holding back your offense, but the Cubs played right into the hand of the Brewers and blew that first game out and didn’t force them to use actual relievers to finish the game after they’d gotten a little knocked around over the weekend.
There was a bright, shining moment after the trade deadline where I was in the afterglow of a flurry of moves that did make this team better. But the afterglow has faded and the post euphoria clarity is setting in. At the end of the day, all of the smoke and mirrors billow away and this is the same flawed team it has been all year long.
The countdown to Wait Til Next Year is well under way. The only question is exactly when the clock strikes zero.
Three Positives:
Tyrone Taylor stayed hot. He had a two-run double and also scored a run before being lifted from the game.
Matt Shaw had a double and drew a walk.
Matthew Boyd probably deserved better than a line of 5.1 innings, three runs allowed. He left with two on base and both ended up scoring. It was a difficult night to
pitch
Game 139, September 1: Brewers 9, Cubs 4 (78-61)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Tyrone Taylor (.139). 1-2, 2B, 2 RBI, R
Hero: Michael Busch (.091). 1-4
Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.088). 1-4, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.396). 0.2 IP, 4 BF, 2 H, 2 R, BK (L 2-2)
Goat: Ryan Zeferjahn (-.113). 0.2 IP, 4 BF, 2 H, 2 R, K
Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.109). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Christian Yelich’s two-run homer in the sixth gave the Brewers the lead and they never looked back. (.243)
Cubs Play of the Game: Tyrone Taylor’s two-run double in the fourth gave the Cubs their first two runs. (.169)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 138 Winner: Clay Holmes received 51 of 86 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Up Next: Game three of the four-game series. In the larger picture, the team is 2-3 to start their 13 games in 13 days. David Peterson (7-7, 5.11) starts for the Cubs. He’s 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA over his last seven games (six starts). Last time out, he allowed two runs in five innings against the Reds.
The Brewers will start ace Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.73). He’s 4-1 with a 2.03 over his last seven and has won his last three starts, allowing three runs over 18 innings. Two starts against the Cubs this year, 12 innings, one run. 16 strikeouts and five walks.
The Miz is without question one of the premier starters in the game today. It is hard to have any optimism at all about this one.
PHOENIX, AZ - SEPTEMBER 01: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies bats in the first inning during the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Tuesday, September 1, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Zach Gardner/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
After a dominating 8-1 win over the Diamondbacks last night, the Phillies have won 15 of their last 17 games and are in search of their fifth series sweep of three or more games in their last six series. They are currently the top wild card team and suddenly just three games behind the Braves in the NL East.
They capped a 21-7 August by starting 1-0 in September and are the hottest team in baseball.
All of this has coincided with a 34-game on-base streak by Bryce Harper, who reached base in all five of his plate appearances last night (4-for-4 with a walk). Over that stretch he is hitting .345 with a .494 on-base percentage and a .588 slugging percentage, good for an OPS of 1.082.
There is a direct correlation between Harper’s hot streak and the Phillies’ run of success since the start of August.
It is not happening by accident.
While Kyle Schwarber has had a quiet time of it over that same stretch, hitting .222 with a .344 OBP, a .444 SLG and an OPS of .788. He’s had some very big home runs during that time, but Harper’s game-to-game consistency has been the true difference-maker for an improved offensive attack.
Make no mistake, the Phils’ pitching staff is the biggest reason for this 28-game stretch of insane baseball. Since they emerged from the Iowa corn in the Field of Dreams Game on August 13, they’ve posted 2.65 team ERA that is 2nd-best in MLB (San Diego). Their 10.00 K/9 are also 2nd (Los Angeles Dodgers), with an 18.5 K-BB% that is 2nd-best as well (Dodgers).
The starters’ 3.01 ERA is 5th-best and, hold onto your hats, but the much-maligned bullpen’s 1.93 ERA is the very best in baseball during this 28-game run. So, as always, the Phillies’ success is largely led by pitching.
But it should not be lost on anyone that Harper is playing at the kind of level Dave Dombrowski questioned he’d be able to reach again last off-season. I was among those questioning whether Harper had this kind of ability left in him, too. His numbers compared to last year are markedly improved.
Harper leads the NL in walks, has already surpassed last year’s WAR totals, and his .901 OPS currently ranks 6th among all qualified MLB hitters (Yordan Alvarez, Pete Crow-Armstrong, James Wood, Shohei Ohtani, Junior Caminero). He is one of just seven players with an OPS over .900. His .844 OPS a season ago ranked 22nd.
That is the difference between very good and “elite.”
For the first time in what feels like forever, Harper doesn’t appear to be pressing. He doesn’t appear to feel like he needs to do it all. Perhaps the mental aspect of adding a player like Luis Arraez into the lineup behind him has been just as important as Arraez’ actual production, which has been solid in and of itself.
Harper appears more relaxed, not chasing the five-run homer. He’s been particularly hot on this west coast road trip through Seattle, Anaheim and now Arizona, hitting .483 (15-for-31) out west.
Bryce Harper in August:⁰.333/.496/.573 (194 wRC+)
Most times on base (63) in a month since Aaron Judge in April 2025 (64)
Harper’s OBP is 2nd in the National League, he’s 7th in slugging, and 5th in wRC+.
And let it not be lost on the consumer that Harper is doing all this while switching from first base to right field, a position he has not played since the first half of 2022. His defense has not been an issue, and one could say the overall defense of the team has actually improved since Bryson Stott went to third base, Arraez arrived to play second and Alec Bohm went to first. So much for the hand-wringing!
Keep in mind, this is Bryce Harper’s FIFTEENTH year in the Majors. 15!!! At 33 years old, he’s putting together the type of season prime Mike Schmidt would be proud of. He’s already matched last year’s home run total (27), and is likely to find himself as an MVP finalist along with Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani if he keeps this up.
So yes, Harper is once again elite. And as a direct consequence, the Phillies are the hottest team in baseball and steaming upward in the standings as the calendar flips to September.
WEST PALM BEACH, FLA - FEBRUARY 16: Houston Astros manager Joe Espada, left, talks while he walks alongside general manager Dana Brown during workouts for pitchers and catchers at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, in West Palm Beach, Fl. (Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)
While making the rounds on his post-firing tour, former Astros GM Dana Brown has only good things to say about the team’s current manager Joe Espada on the Foul Territory podcast:
Former Astros GM Dana Brown has nothing but positive things to say about Joe Espada, with whom he shared a great relationship.
The most important aspect of this was that Brown stated Espada was both liked and respected by the players.
Whether that proves to be enough for Espada to hang on to his job after the season is yet to be determined, but it does offer some insight as to perhaps why team owner Jim Crane decided to keep Espada on while letting Brown go before the season ended.
While fans can be frustrated by the team’s inconsistency, injuries and roster construction (as well as the fact there are too many players on the roster who perhaps shouldn’t be) are more to blame for that than the manager.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 30: Sal Stewart #27 of the Cincinnati Reds rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field on August 30, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Reds fans and fans across the country.
Stat-heads know the familiar feeling of opening up player pages at Baseball Reference and seeing numbers leaning right, boldfaced and italicized.
It means a player is currently leading not just his own league, but all of Major League Baseball in a particular category.
Flipping open the page of Cincinnati Reds rookie Sal Stewart lends you that opportunity. He has played in all 139 games in which the Reds have participated so far in 2026, his rookie year, and that’s obviously the most anyone could have played. His 105 runs batted in also sit atop the MLB leaderboard – 105, I should have said.
En route to a 3+WAR season on the backs of a 127 OPS+ (and rising), Sal is putting together the kind of rookie campaign that may very well lead to him winning the National League Rookie of the Year honors. He’s already popped 30 homers, and while that RBI total is currently leading all of Major League Baseball, it has also already eclipsed the previous record for runs batted in by a Cincinnati Reds rookie.
Plain and simple, he’s having a truly remarkable season. The question is, though, where it ranks among the great rookie seasons in Cincinnati Reds history.
Jonathan India took home the award back in 2021 as a member of the Reds. Scott Williamson’s bulldog 1999 season earned him one, too. Chris Sabo, Pat Zachry, Johnny Bench, Tommy Helms, Pete Rose, and Frank Robinson similarly earned the award, with Frank’s 38 homers back in 1956 the benchmark total in that category that Sal will still try to clear before season’s end.
And those are just the guys who won the award as rookies. Lest we forget Joey Votto’s deserving rookie season in 2008 when he posted a 125 OPS+ with 24 homers only to finish 2nd.
This week’s MLB Reacts question is almost a litmus test for the way we evaluate big leaguers these days. As mentioned in the latest rundown of rookies in the running for the award at MLB.com, each and every rookie who has swatted at least 30 homers and driven in at least 100 runs since the award was founded has won it in that season, placing the kind of special value on those stats moreso than, say, defensive runs saved and overall WAR. So, if you’re of the opinion (much like baseball arbitration metrics) that dingers and ribbies just mean more, you may well fall on the side of saying that Sal is having one of the best – if not the best – rookie seasons in Cincinnati Reds history.
The Tampa Bay Rays have pummeled teams at home all season long, posting a remarkably strong 47-24 record at Tropicana Field.
Facing a pitcher set to throw his first major-league innings of the season, my Mets vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks are banking on more of the same in today's series finale, with Tampa a significant home favorite on Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Who will win Mets vs Rays today: Tampa Bay Rays (60%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a clear pitching advantage this afternoon.
Griffin Jax held opponents to just one run in four of his last five starts before missing a month with an elbow injury, and posted a strong .264 xwOBA overhis past six.
New York Mets right-hander Justin Hagenmanrecorded a 4.44 xFIP and 1.93 HR/9 over three minor-league starts during his ramp-up. He will have a difficult time jumping on a moving train against a Rays team that puts a ton of pressure on opposing arms with elite contact skills.
The first two games of this series featured eight runs or fewer, and I see another low-scoring game in the cards today.
Despite their recent improvements, the Mets are 27th in OPS vs. righties this season. Jax has sliced and diced the eight Bottom-10 opponents he has faced, posting a sparkling 2.17 ERA.
The Rays rank 24th in barrel percentage and 28th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching over the last month. They’re not producing much power, making it difficult to string together huge innings.
Play to 57%.
Mets vs Rays home run prediction: Junior Caminero (23%)
Junior Caminero hits lefties and righties well, but he has produced more power vs. the latter, with a .262 ISO.
Hagenman relied primarily on cutters, sliders, and sinkers when pitching in the majors last season. Caminero has a strong track record facing those pitches, recording an ISO of .225 or higher against each of them.
He enters play riding a 15-game hitting streak and is clearly seeing the ball very well. I want to ride the hot hand.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 96-88, -11.76 units
Over/Under bets: 94-84-6, -2.02 units
Mets vs Rays weather
This game will be played indoors.
Mets vs Rays odds
Moneyline: Mets 41% | Rays 60%
Run line: Mets +1.5 (60%) | Rays -1.5 (42%)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (47%) | Under 8.5 (55%)
Mets vs Rays trend
Tampa Bay has hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+8.75 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Rays.
How to watch Mets vs Rays and game info
Location
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Date
Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
SNY, Rays.TV
Mets starting pitcher
Justin Hagenman (2025: 0-1, 4.56 ERA)
Rays starting pitcher
Griffin Jax (6-9, 3.63 ERA)
Mets vs Rays latest injuries
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When the Atlanta Braves swept the Dodgers it resulted in them having the most wins against teams above .500 in MLB, but they have since lost two games to sub .500 teams. The lineup has been one of the main reasons why there has been this rollercoaster of losing games that the Braves should win.
On the season, only eight teams have scored more runs than the Braves, but since the All-Star break, only seven teams have scored fewer runs. The pitching has been keeping the Braves afloat, and that needs to change. The Nationals have one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB this season, so hopefully the offense can get the spark they need.
Over the past two weeks Michael Harris has been on fire with a 200 wRC+, with Sean Murphy not being far behind with a 181 and Drake Baldwin with a 126. Other than Ha-Seong Kim doing well in his very limited action of five games, everyone else has been struggling. To be fair, they did play the Dodgers for three of those games, but they also played the Rockies in that span as well.
Speaking of Kim, he does have a 135 wRC+ since he started getting some playing time, so the question of if he would get the start, especially after gong 3-3 last night, was definitely there. Players like Austin Riley could sure use a night off, so it would have made sense for Mauricio Dubón to fall back into his super utility role.
Brian Snitker was very predictable with his lineups. Walt Weiss is quite the opposite. He is obviously trying to shake things up to see what works, so it always makes it fascinating to wait and see what the lineup will be. Not many people had Mauricio Dubón ever hitting cleanup on their bingo card, for example.
Walt Weiss opted to let Dubón be the player to get some rest today. The other two decisions of note are that with Dubón resting it was a no brainer to put Kim back in the lineup after his solid performance last night, and Weiss also decided to play the hot hand and move Sean Murphy up to hitting sixth.
It looks odd at first having Albies hit cleanup against a righty, but he does own a .929 OPS against Lord, plus Lord is likely only an opener so the traditional making a lineup based on the SP is not as important.
The Nationals have scored the second most runs behind the Cubs this season. They have faded a little losing tow of their best bats to trades or injuries to scoring the eighth most since the trade deadline.
James Wood also returns to the lineup for the Nationals, giving them a huge boost.
Holmes needs to keep an eye out for Dylan Crews and James Wood. Both a HR against him in six at-bats, although their average is only .167. Daylen Lile has been his nemesis with two HRs off of him in only four at-bats.
The key today is to score early and score often to get to the bullpen and stave off an offense that has not slowed down much as the season has progessed.
It must have been my birthday yesterday, as I hit the double dinger and cashed +5.68 units. However, I'm not blinded by the lights. My eyes are set on the home run and the MLB player props board today, and I want more.
The Orioles might have the best chance at homers today vs. Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field, and Mickey Gasper's hot bat meets Bryce Miller's cold arm.
These are my favorite MLBhome run props for Wednesday, Sept. 2.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Player to hit a HR
Chance
Gunnar Henderson
19%
Mickey Gasper
13%
Home run prediction: Gunnar Henderson (19%)
I want any piece of the middle of the Baltimore Orioles order at 3.8x or better against Tomoyuki Sugano, and that brings me to Gunnar Henderson. Sugano has the 15th-worst HR/9 in baseball this season, and his xERA is 1.72 points higher than his actual 5.23 ERA. He gets just 32% ground balls and has allowed five or more runs in three straight starts. He has been a home run target all season long.
Henderson might not be Baltimore's hottest bat, but at this price, I'll take a 22-HR hitter who ranks third in slugging over the last two weeks and costs nearly double Pete Alonso's price.
Coors Field is the second-best HR park today, per BallPark Pal. Winds are blowing out to left field, and 90-degree temperatures should help the ball fly. If Sugano doesn't get it done, the Rockies bullpen can, with its No. 26 xFIP and No. 28 xERA on the season.
Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rockies.TV, MASN
Home run prediction: Mickey Gasper (13%)
This is the best bat over the last two weeks vs. a pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen, owns a 7.18 ERA since the break, and is starting because of injuries.
Mickey Gasper is slugging 1.077 over his last 11 games with five dingers over those last 14 days. His damage is coming vs. right-handed pitching, with 100% of his dingers coming vs. them. Since being called up, he is slashing .394/.565/1.121, which is ridiculous. Today's matchup should be circled for Mickey and all bettors.
Bryce Miller was demoted to the pen but didn't throw a pitch there because of other injuries. He threw a season-high 104 pitches in his last outing on August 23 and has given up a home run in all but one of his last 12 starts, with multi-HR games in 33% of those. Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball per ERA in the second half of the season.
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GLENDALE, AZ - MARCH 21: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Adam Serwinowski (73) throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox in a Spring Breakout Game on March 21, 2026, at Camelback Ranch at Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Tightly contested games across the board, including disappointing defensive efforts from both the Loons and Tower Buzzers, stood out on the first day of September.
Player of the day
It’s not every day you see a pitcher covering eight innings in the minor leagues; it’s not every day you see that anywhere, and Adam Serwinowski accomplished that feat in a close win for Tulsa at home over Wichita, helping this dominant Drillers team to go 31 games over .500 and secure their most wins ever (79).
Shortly after setting a career high in innings pitched as a professional, Serwinowski momentarily put behind what has been a disappointing campaign with an ERA north of 5.00 to toss an outstanding start. Serwinowski allowed just two runs in eight innings, dominating in a game in which the Drillers needed no less than that, narrowly beating out the Wind Surge.
Triple-A Oklahoma City
Neither starting pitcher was on his game, with Christian Romero and David Davalillo both allowing four runs, but the Comets’ bullpen was as dominant as you’d want by covering 5.2 frames and conceding just a single hit in a 7-4 win. Involved in that great effort from the bullpen, Kris Bubic impressed in his first appearance on a rehab assignment, punching out two.
Matt Gorski and Ryan Fitzgerald hit solo shots in the second and ninth, respectively, but what really made the day for the Comets was a five-run fifth with contributions from all over the order—it included a Fitzgerald then game-tying two-run double, while the go-ahead hit came from Hyeseong Kim, also an RBI double.
Much like Eric Lauer in the majors, Adam Seriwnowski also allowed a pair of solo shots, but the similarities in these two outings end there, as Seriwnowski otherwise dominated the Wind Surge across eight two-run innings. Serwinowski had been more dominant in a pair of seven-inning outings, but by length, this was his best performance. Serwinowski allowed the Drillers to come from behind and win this game while recording only four hits to score their three runs.
Offensively, Logan Wagner was the big factor for Tulsa, first putting them on the scoreboard with a solo shot in the second and then securing the go-ahead RBI single in the sixth.
Responsible for scoring one of Tulsa’s runs, Kole Wagner didn’t record a hit but caused a lot of problems by drawing three walks in the game.
High-A Great Lakes
When you commit as many errors as you score runs, the chances of winning are rather slim, as it was on display in a Loons 4-3 loss against the Captains. Mairo Martinus, who has had such a nice start to his Great Lakes career, encountered some problems on the field, committing two of those three errors, and in the end, the only earned run allowed by the Loons staff came against the losing pitcher of record, Robby Porco.
Ninth-hole hitter Victor Rodriguez, who came into this game with one home run this season in over 250 at-bats, was responsible for two of the Loons’ three runs, hitting a two-run bomb in the seventh. For a brief moment, that gave the Loons the lead before handing it right back by allowing runs in the seventh and ninth.
Class-A Ontario
Much like the Loons, the Tower Buzzers also didn’t play clean defense and surrendered a late lead en route to a loss, beaten 8 to 6 by the Quakes, who scored all of their runs from the sixth inning onwards. This bullpen collapse, which included three separate blown saves from Camden Wimbish, Accibias Morales, and Devin Bell, meant that Jack O’Connor left his start empty-handed despite tossing five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.
Relying almost exclusively on the long ball to make something happen, the Tower Buzzers scored four of their six runs via homers, including a Caleb Johnson two-run bomb and solo shots from Joendry Vargas and Jose Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Bryan Gonzalez Garcia and Easton Shelton struggled heavily, with 3 strikeouts each.
Transactions
Outfielders Kyeler Thompson and Jose Gonzalez were assigned to Ontario. The Comets were assigned Alek Thomas as Alex Freeland received a call-up to the bigs, and lastly, Kris Bubic began a rehab assignment with the Comets.
Tuesday’s scores
Round Rock 4, Oklahoma City 7
Tulsa 3, Wichita 2
Lake County 4, Great Lakes 3
Ontario 6, Rancho Cucamonga 8
Wednesday’s schedule
10:05 a.m. PT: Tulsa (Wyatt Crowell) vs. Wichita (Chris Vallimont)
3:35 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Will Gagnon) at Lake County (Joey Oakie)
4:45 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Cole Irvin) at Round Rock (Winston Santos)
6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Rancho Cucamonga (Trey Gregory-Alford)
COVERS INTEL: Painter has shown real HR suppression lately, allowing 
Gunnar Henderson
Mickey Gasper