Category: Baseball

I definitely can recall a time, back in the cooler days of spring, when I used to forget that Taylor Ward was in the lineup. Acquired last November for Grayson Rodriguez to Anaheim, I was pretty uninterested in Taylor Ward, and I felt bad for Rodriguez. In general, the trade felt to me hasty, a little wasteful, and cruel to a homegrown arm.

Well, that take has aged pretty badly, because Ward has quietly become a reliable leadoff man, and one of the most interesting hitters on the team. (If you were wondering about Rodriguez, by the way, here.) The moral: I guess we should read the transaction wire more carefully.

The raw numbers are solid without being flashy, brought down of late by an 0-for-14 skid. But a batting average hovering around .252 with an OBP north of .400, MLB-Top 3 walk totals, and a thoughtful approach at the plate has been a genuine asset at the top of a lineup that’s sorely lacked in consistency. In early May he set an O’s record with 40 walks through his first 40 games (topping the previous mark of 39 set by Albert Belle). The power, though, has been nearly absent—or at least diminished: after posting a career-high 36 home runs with the Angels a year ago, Ward has cleared the wall only twice this season. The homers have turned into doubles: 16, tied for fourth in the AL.

What’s changed for Ward at the plate?

Discipline metrics tell much of the story. The headlining number is Ward’s walk rate: 19.2%, a career high by a wide margin, and third among all 163 qualifying hitters in baseball, trailing only Mike Trout and the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz. A walk rate that extreme does not happen by accident, and the underlying swing data reveal a player who has fundamentally remade his approach.

Ward’s Swing% sits at 31.1%, a career low, meaning he is offering at far fewer pitches than at any point in his career. His O-Swing% (swings at pitches outside the zone) is 12%, the only time in nine seasons it has not exceeded 20%. His Z-Swing% (swings at pitches inside the zone) has fallen to 50.8%, another career low. In other words, Ward is not even chasing good pitches unless they are precisely what he is looking for. And when he does pull the trigger on pitches in the zone? He is making contact at a 90.8% clip — a career best.

The profile that emerges is of a hitter who is extraordinarily choosy but, when he has identified the pitch he wants, is not missing it. And he’s not selling out for power, either. Alongside a strikeout rate near its career low, his launch angle is at a career low, too, and his average exit velocity is unspectacular. Ward is taking walks. Or he’s finding the gap. He’s not swinging for the fences.

What explains the transformation? The change is intentional, as you’d guess. Ward himself cites three factors: offseason mechanical work to produce a line-drive approach, more intensive pregame prep on how pitchers plan to nibble outside the zone, and the new Automated Ball-Strike challenge system, which he says has encouraged umpires to stay closer to the true zone all season. Let’s dwell on that last point for a second.

The ABS system, new in 2026, uses Hawk-Eye cameras and a slightly hitter-friendly strike zone calibrated to each player’s height. One big implication is that pitches that clip the outer edge at the front of the plate and then dive out of the zone are no longer called strikes. And new hitting coach Dustin Lind has a documented track record of reducing chase rates wherever he has worked: he helped the Giants drop their chase rate from 31.2% to 24.2% between 2019 and 2021, and brought a similar philosophy to the Phillies in 2024.

One further downstream effect of Ward’s extreme selectivity is that it forces pitchers to throw strikes. When a hitter lays off breaking balls and borderline pitches with Ward’s consistency, opposing pitchers face an uncomfortable choice — walk him or attack him with fastballs. This season, fastballs have constituted 59.3% of the pitches Ward has seen, and he is hitting .309 against them. Ward’s choosiness, in other words, is producing, not just walks, but also an advantageous pitch mix. He is laying off the curveball, getting the heater, and doing something productive with it. (Now, can Colton Cowser do the same?)

So there you have it: Taylor Ward, a player we were all mostly uninterested in, showed up to town in his ninth big-league season, at age 32, with a brand-new skill set. Granted, he arrived in Baltimore with a reputation for power, and that power is somewhat dormant, unless you really like doubles. (For the record, I do like doubles.) Ward may or may not be a household name in Birdland, but he is on this team—and, in fact, batting leadoff most nights—and he has been one of the most quietly excellent hitters in the American League all season. Time to start paying attention.

This question is very clearly prompted by last night’s loss, where the Blue Jays (surprisingly?) did not BABIP over .500… but they got pretty close.

There was a game the Braves lost to the Red Sox recently — the 8-0 shellacking, where the Red Sox had a .400 BABIP, and the Braves had a .208 BABIP. Not quite double, but yeah, that’ll do it in terms of the 8-0 score. To be more sophisticated about it, the Braves didn’t really “get screwed” in that one, as the Red Sox had a .400+ xwOBA and actually slightly underhit it… though it is worth noting that the Braves had a .213 wOBA on a .359 xwOBA — their second-biggest underperformance of the season so far.

So, when yesterday’s game against the Blue Jays transpired, even before the Reynaldo Lopez “implosion” in the ninth, it was reminiscent of something from the prior week. With the dust settled, here’s what we got:

• Blue Jays BABIP (i.e., Braves BABIP-against): .485, a season-high BABIP-against for Atlanta
• Braves BABIP: .125, third-lowest.

That’s a ratio of nearly 4.00! That’s tough to overcome. What about outputs versus inputs?

• Blue Jays: .398 wOBA on a .319 xwOBA, the third-highest gap the Braves have allowed this year.
• Braves: .213 wOBA on a .259 xwOBA.

So, in some ways, the result wasn’t surprising. But the Blue Jays still got some very unjust deserts, and the Braves’ luck went the other way.

Still, that .485 BABIP is very high. It made me curious: how often do the Braves suffer the indignity of a .500+ BABIP-against?

The answer is “a few times a season, except 2023 where they didn’t have any, and 2024, where they somehow had six against them.” Weirdly, there was only one such game in the misery that was last season; you’d think will the stuff the team had to deal with, it would’ve been way higher in 2025 than, say, 2024.

They haven’t had one in 2026 yet. Will they? If they do, and “patterns” are meaningful (they aren’t), it might come soon. Three of the Braves’ six highest BABIP-against games have come in the last week-ish, and are in fact the team’s only losses in that span. There was the aforementioned game in Boston, then there was the Ronald Acuña Jr. defensive issues crammed into nine innings game in Cincinnati, and then last night’s game. But, will they have another that actually comes when the opponent BABIPs .500+? If so, when?

Another series at home, another series loss.

Now the Red Sox travel for six games against the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, only the two best teams in the American League. Starting in the Bronx. No sweat.

Since sweeping Boston, the Yankees have gone 21-18. Boston meanwhile has gone 17-18. That initial 10-17 start continues to haunt the Red Sox. As a reminder of those Yankees games, while the sweep sure hurt it wasn’t actually that bad, all things considered. The three games were losses of 4-0, 4-1 and 4-2. You’d hope the offense now might have made those more competitive. Although they were still played at Fenway, so perhaps not. But, thankfully, this is a road series for the Red Sox.

Sonny Gray has gone 6.0 innings while allowing exactly 1 run in three of his last four starts. The one exception was his last start against the Minnesota Twins. The veteran didn’t face the Yankees the first meeting this season but did face them once in 2025 and gave up 6 runs in 5.0 innings. Ryan Weathers, a southpaw, missed Boston in Fenway Park and has been a solid contributor for New York. He hasn’t tossed fewer than 5.0 innings in any start since April 4th. He’s coming off a 5-run, 6.2 inning outing against the Athletics. He struck out 10 for the second time this season.

Ranger Suarez had been on a roll entering May but has been in a funk since then. His last five starts have lasted 4.0, 5.1, 4.1, 5.0, and 5.0 innings. He did strike out 10 Guardians though, so maybe he’s getting back on track. His start against the Yankees in Fenway Park was forgettable. Will Warren has been on a roll for the last month since a 4.0 inning, 6-run outing against the Texas Rangers.

The matchup of the two promising young pitchers is saved for last. Connelly Early didn’t have his best stuff against the Baltimore Orioles last time out but did still settle down enough to last 5.1 innings. The 4 runs he allowed early were enough for Baltimore to cruise to victory. Early faced New York in April and, of course, last October. He allowed 3 runs in 5.1 in that meeting in 2026 and the Yankees would win 4-0. The Sox have scored at least 2 runs in his other 11 starts. The Guardians figured out something against Cam Schlittler, knocking him around for 5 runs (4 earned) in 4.1 innings. Hopefully the Sox advance team can follow whatever Cleveland was doing.

Ben Rice has 17 home runs, tied with Aaron Judge. And, guess what? Aaron Judge is hurt. Here’s your 4-6 weeks at least to gain some ground, Red Sox!

Trent Grisham is hitting just .206/.328/.371 after his big 2025.

Giancarlo Stanton is still on the IL. He went on the IL 2 days after playing Boston. Not having him in the lineup is a win.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, June 5: Sonny Gray (3.06 ERA / 3.52 FIP) vs. Ryan Weathers (3.52 ERA / 3.88 FIP)

Saturday, June 6: Ranger Suarez (3.38 ERA / 3.12FIP) vs. Will Warren (3.22 ERA / 3.27 FIP)

Sunday, June 7: Connelly Early (3.26 ERA / 4.62 FIP) vs. Cam Schlittler (1.99 ERA / 4.85 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, June 5, 7:05 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, June 6, 7:35 PM ET on FOX

Sunday, June 7, 1:35 PM ET on NESN

I make no bones about the fact that “Major League” is probably my favorite baseball movie. Half of my fantasy baseball teams have the name “Jobu’s Rum.” There are other good ones to be sure. “The Natural” is a good one. “Bull Durham” is a classic. “Eight Men Out” is another one. There are probably more including “Field of Dreams” that get you in a soft spot, but Major League has so many lines that I can recite from heart. One of my favorite exchanges is below.

Lou Brown: That’s Jake Taylor. He was an all-star in Boston right?

Charlie Donovan: Yeah, he wound up in the Mexican Leagues because he had trouble with his knees.

Pitching Coach: Wish we would have had him two years ago.

Donovan: We did.

Pitching Coach: Four years ago then.

I’m not saying Wade is Jake Taylor, but that scene always comes back to me when teams sign guys like Wade. He was a really good player back in 2021 and 2022. However, it was short-lived as these things usually are. However, there is a difference between the basic numbers and the underlying numbers. So, let’s take a look at both and see what the Astros are getting.

Observant readers will notice that the 2026 numbers are missing. That is because he has not been at the big league level yet this season. He was toiling in the International League with the White Sox’ triple A affiliate. In just over 200 plate appearances he has a .250 average, seven home runs, and 26 RBI. Of course, just looking at these numbers buries the lede. If you look at the ratios and BABIP it begins to make more sense.

As you can see, some of the underlying numbers look a lot better than the basic numbers. In particular, he seems to fit in with the new approach by the hitting coaches. He takes more pitches and therefore takes more walks. His swing percentages are consistently in the same neighborhood as Isaac Paredes. His chase rates never went above 23 percent and sit at 19.5 for his career. Those make him perhaps the most selective player on the Astros roster.

He is normally a neutral fielder in left field, but has spent most of his time playing right field and first base. He has -5 defensive runs saved in over 1300 innings in the outfield. He has -1 DRS in almost 2400 innings at first base. So, you have a guy that can play three different positions at almost league average ability. Ostensibly, he is taking Joey Loperfido’s spot on the roster, so let’s take a look at his periherals.

When you look at the Astros bench, it looked like they were a little heavy on the strikeouts. The Astros sent Zach Cole down, but before he went down he had a strikeout rate of nearly 40 percent. Zach Dezenzo has a strikeout rate near 35 percent. Brice Mathews looks like a contact fiend compared to them. His K rate is “only” 32.9 percent. Suffice it to say, when you add in the substitution of Collin Price for Cesar Salazar and it looks like the Astros are trying to beef up their bench.

In 1996, Gerry Hunsicker (then the Astros general manager) signed veteran pitcher Terry Clark mid season to join the bullpen. At the time, Hunsicker said he was trying to “catch lightening in a bottle.” Clark would go onto have an ERA over 11,00 in five games with the Astros. Clearly, the lightening came nowhere near the bottle. Wade is no Clark, but this feels like a similar gamble. In AAA this season he has been the same guy he always was as he has drawn more than 40 walks. If we look at the statcast numbers we can see that Wade has been an underrated hitter throughout his career.

What statcast does is look at the expected numbers across the board depending on the quality and rate of contact by the hitter. Including in that is an adjustment for Fangraphs’ weighted on base average (wOBA) they call xwOBA. If we look at that along with the career numbers we can see what might be possible for Wade in Houston.

Weighted on base percentage is a number most fans are not familiar with. It mimics OBP but it includes a slugging element to it. A career .322 wOBA is actually pretty close to league average. As you can see, the expected numbers are better than that across the board. So, he is not a gas can like Terry Clark was, but there is a calculated gamble here. The gamble is that there will be some regression to the mean. The downside is that he might be on the way down.

Of course, a league minimum salary is not that much of a gamble. The Astros officially activated Joey Loperfido and optioned him to Sugar Land. The worst that can happen is that Wade isn’t the next Jake Taylor. If that happens then you cut him and bring Loperfido back up. What do you think? Are you excited about the Astros adding Wade?

After a week out west, the Yankees returned home on Tuesday for a series against the Guardians that could’ve gone better. The Yankees dropped the opening two games of the series, before eking out a 2-1 win in the finale. Looming over the proceedings is the fact that Aaron Judge is about to hit the injured list with a rib stress fracture that seems likely to keep him out of action until August at the absolute earliest.

However, now is not the time for the Yankees to wallow, as they’re set to welcome an old foe to town. Starting tonight, the Yankees will host the Red Sox in a three-game series in the Bronx. Boston has had a substandard season so far, and they just demoted the extended Brayan Bello after losing two out of three to the Orioles. But you know they’d love to rub the Yankees’ nose in it and beat them this weekend in the Bronx anyway. Note that they’re missing some familiar faces, as Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Garrett Whitlock are all on the IL.

Before things get going tonight, here’s a look at the probable pitchers for the next couple days.

Friday: Ryan Weathers vs. Sonny Gray (7:05 pm ET)

Following a couple nice starts in a row, Weathers had a down outing last weekend in Sacramento against the Athletics. His stuff still looked pretty decent, as he ended up striking out 10 batters, but he gave up three home runs to doom him to a subpar start. This will also be his first venture into the rivalry as a member of the Yankees, and also his first appearance in general versus Boston.

The former Yankee Gray was traded to Boston over the offseason, and has had a pretty good run of things so far. Since the beginning of May, he has a 2.00 ERA and a 2.73 FIP in 27 innings, having struck out 28 batters. He did not have much success in this rivalry while a member of the Yankees, but frankly there’s a lot about his time in New York that the Yankees could’ve handled better.

Saturday: Will Warren vs. Ranger Suarez (7:35 pm ET)

In his last appearance, Warren was on the mound for that weird 13-8 win over the A’s last weekend. He gave up three runs that day, but all of them technically went down as unearned. Warren’s been pretty bad against the Red Sox for his career, though Boston hasn’t faced the 2026 version of Warren, which has been very successful. Warren has a 9.42 ERA against Boston in 14.1 innings, as Boston’s tee’d off to a tune of a 1.029 OPS.

Boston’s offseason acquisition in Suarez has numbers that grade out pretty well on the season as a whole, but he has been a bit up and down. Of late, he’s been down, as he’s been gotten for nine runs in 10 combined innings over his last two starts. On the other hand, he allowed just one in 21.2 innings over the three starts prior to that.

Sunday: Cam Schlittler vs. Connelly Early (1:35 pm ET)

Last time out, Schlittler had arguably the worst start of his young career so far against Cleveland. The Guardians got him for four runs in just 4.1 innings earlier this week. The good news is, the last time he took the mound in a headline game against the Red Sox in the Bronx, he was pretty good.

Opposite Schlittler will be the same man who opposed him in that Wild Card Series Game 3: Connelly Early. Much was made of the rookie vs. rookie matchup that day, and Schlittler decisively won it, although Early wasn’t a total disaster. Honestly, his defense betrayed him in the four-run fourth inning more than anything else. He’s also been pretty decent so far this year, although he has given up six home runs over his last four games.

It’s June 5, roughly two-and-a-half months into the baseball season. The current ERA leaderboard (and Cy Young Award shortlist) is:

1. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 1.46 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 4.7 WAR, 13 GS, 7-2 record, 86 1/3 IP
2. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 1.65 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, 3.0 WAR, 12 GS, 6-2 record, 71 IP
3. Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1.89 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 2.9 WAR, 13 GS, 7-3 record, 76 1/3 IP

As tempting as it would be to turn this into another Jacob Misiorowski article, we’ve already covered his dominance at length. Instead, let’s compare those three pitchers to Brewers’ No. 2 starter Kyle Harrison:

Kyle Harrison (MIL): 1.57 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 2.7 WAR, 11 GS, 7-1 record, 57 1/3 IP

Harrison hasn’t quite thrown enough innings to qualify, but his ERA would rank second in baseball — behind only Sánchez. He’s already been worth almost three full wins above replacement (WAR), comparable to Misiorowski and Schlittler, and has a lower WHIP than Sánchez. It’s not exactly hyperbolic to say that through his first 11 starts as a Brewer, Kyle Harrison has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

A little over three months ago, when the Brewers traded for Harrison, I wrote an article explaining why Brewers fans should be more excited about him. He was once a top prospect, highly regarded enough to be the main piece in a trade for Rafael Devers, but his development had stalled out a bit in major league stints with the Giants and Red Sox.

Knowing the Brewers would likely overhaul his arsenal — as they often do with young, developing pitchers — that article was my attempt to predict how they might mold Harrison into a more effective starter. Now that he has enough innings under his belt for a meaningful evaluation, we can look back at that article and see how close it came to what the Brewers actually did. In the process, we’ll examine the adjustments that have helped fuel Harrison’s breakout season.

So, what’s changed?

Harrison’s arsenal has always been anchored by his late-rising fastball — the best pitch in his arsenal — but for most of his career, his main secondary options (changeup and slurve) were somewhat lacking. Looking back, the first article did a pretty good job of identifying the adjustments he needed to make:

“What does Harrison need to live up to his potential? Simply put, he needs better shape on his secondary pitches and a go-to secondary offering.”

As it turns out, those two improvements are exactly what fueled his breakout.

Harrison’s Changeup

In 2024, Harrison threw a changeup 19.8% of the time. Opposing batters weren’t particularly fazed by that iteration, hitting .287 with an xSLG (expected slugging percentage) of .461. This year, opponents are hitting .292 against the pitch, but with an xSLG of only .385. While his changeup hasn’t exactly become Airbender-esque, he’s limiting hard contact and forcing hitters to respect it.

Much has been made of Harrison adopting a new changeup grip, the “kick change,” from former Giants teammate Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong’s changeup is notable for its unusually low spin rates, often registering in the 1,200 rpm (rotations per minute) range. Harrison’s changeup in 2024 averaged 1,946 rpm. This year, it’s all the way down to 1,233 rpm.

Changeups with lower spin rates usually drop more as they reach the plate. Implementing the kick change has fundamentally changed the shape of Harrison’s changeup:

2024: 16.4” tail (horizontal movement), 1.0” rise (vertical movement)

2026: 11.4” tail, 3.7” drop

His changeup actually breaks less overall than it did in 2024, yet it’s been more effective because its shape complements the rest of his arsenal. Every fastball-oriented pitcher can benefit from an effective changeup, as the two pitches are typically thrown from a similar arm slot with comparable arm speed and release points. Harrison’s best pitch is his rising fastball, and the changeup plays off it beautifully. Thrown from the same arm slot and with a similar release to his fastball, his changeup arrives slower and breaks down instead of up, making it much more difficult for hitters to square him up.

The other reason Harrison’s changeup has been more effective? He’s throwing it less often. In 2024, he threw the pitch 19.8% of the time. This year, that figure is down to just 10%.

That might sound counterintuitive, but not every pitch benefits from being featured heavily. Harrison’s changeup is a useful complementary offering, yet it’s clearly his third-best pitch. By reducing its usage, he’s able to lean more heavily on his fastball and slurve while still keeping hitters honest.

That said, there is a point where a pitcher can become too predictable. Harrison has thrown just 11 changeups over his last two starts, good for only 5.5% of his total pitches. The changeup’s value doesn’t come from being a wipeout pitch; it comes from forcing hitters to respect a third option. If hitters stop expecting it altogether, some of that value disappears.

Harrison’s Slurve

One of the things Harrison was reportedly working on in his time with the Red Sox was developing a higher-velocity version of his slurve, which had potential but wasn’t consistently effective. Opponents had an xSLG of .471 against the pitch in 2024 and .518 in 2025.

In the February article, I mentioned that Harrison was throwing his slurve nearly two mph faster in 2025 and getting an extra 1.6” of vertical break. Previous articles on Harrison had noted that a slightly harder breaking ball might be the answer, which I brought up as something that the Brewers could “have already pinpointed.” It looks like they have:

2024: 80.6 mph, 8.7” break, 4.6” drop

2026: 82.1 mph, 10.9” break, 3.8” drop

As you can see, with the increase in velocity has come a change in shape. Harrison’s slurve has 2.2 more inches of horizontal break while dropping almost an inch less. This year, opponents have hit .115 with a .222 xSLG in 64 plate appearances against the slurve. In 2024, before he’d started implementing the new version, opponents hit .274 with a .471 xSLG.

Harrison is throwing the slurve more than he ever has (29.2% of pitches), and with better results. He’s not getting more spin on the ball, or more extension, but that small increase in velocity has given it a much more effective shape and turned it into what looks like a true go-to secondary offering.

Harrison’s Fastball

Because his secondary pitches historically haven’t been that effective, and because it’s his best pitch, Harrison has always thrown his fastball a lot — like, almost 60% of the time. His fastball’s best quality is its shape rather than its velocity, but when velocity declines, so does movement. Lower velocity also gives hitters more time to recognize the pitch and square it up.

With all that said, it’s not a surprise that his success has been pretty directly correlated to his fastball velocity:

2023: 93.6 mph, 4.15 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 7.5 hits/9, 9.1 K/9

2024: 92.5 mph, 4.56 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 9 hits/9 , 8.5 K/9

2025: 94.6 mph, 4.04 ERA, 1.374 WHIP, 8.8 hits/9, 9.6 K/9

2026: 95.0 mph, 1.57 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 6.8 hits/9, 11.5 K/9

His best season in terms of fastball velocity has also been his best overall season so far, his second-best velocity year was his second-best overall season, etc. You get the idea.

Unlike his changeup and slurve, Harrison hasn’t significantly altered his fastball or its usage rate. Instead, the pitch has benefited from two developments: increased velocity and a stronger supporting cast. Hitters have less time to react, and they’re less able to gear up for the fastball because Harrison’s secondary pitches now demand respect.

Harrison’s Delivery

Another big change, one that I didn’t predict, is Harrison’s positioning on the rubber. He used to pitch from the third-base side, but this year he’s been working from the first-base side. The adjustment gave him a different angle of attack against hitters and changed the way each of his pitches played, especially the slurve.

As explained in this great breakdown, Harrison’s slurve breaks away from left-handed hitters, so moving to the first-base side of the rubber allows him to release it from a more deceptive angle. The pitch appears closer to the hitter out of his hand, making it more difficult to track and judge whether it will finish in or out of the strike zone. Against right-handed hitters, the slurve starts farther outside, increasing the likelihood that hitters either give up on it too early or recognize too late that it’s going to clip the zone.

Harrison’s Arm Angle

The final change, and another that I didn’t bring up in the first article, is Harrison’s arm angle. Harrison raised his arm angle from a low three-quarters arm slot to more of a true three-quarters release. His release point, as you can see below, also moved further toward first base.

While Harrison’s new arm slot accentuates the benefits of moving to the first-base side of the rubber, it also comes with advantages of its own. A higher release point allows pitchers to get more on top of the baseball, which can increase spin. Harrison’s fastball spin rate has jumped from 2,203 rpm in 2024 to 2,359 rpm in 2026, and he’s getting about three more inches of vertical break.

The other piece of the puzzle is his vertical approach angle (VAA). Milwaukee has long favored pitchers with flatter VAAs because they create a deceptive effect, making fastballs appear quicker and causing hitters to swing underneath them.

Harrison has historically had a very flat VAA because of his lower arm slot, and because it accentuates the effect of his rising fastball. In order to keep the advantages of a flat VAA without losing the benefits of a higher arm slot, Harrison — as Matthew Trueblood detailed here — has introduced mechanical adjustments, getting lower into his delivery before release to keep his pitches flatter.

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When you dive into the tweaks Kyle Harrison has made this year, it’s no surprise that he’s turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball. The talent was always there. Harrison always had the raw ingredients to become a solid major league starter; he just needed better secondary pitches and a few mechanical adjustments that maximized his strengths.

Now, he has both. His revamped arsenal and refined delivery have transformed him from a pitcher with intriguing upside into one who is beginning to realize it. If these changes continue to hold, Harrison’s ceiling looks much higher than “solid.”

14 days ago against the Milwaukee Brewers, Max Muncy was forced to exit the game after taking a fastball to his wrist. Muncy found himself in another painful situation on Thursday, this time colliding head-first into Diamondbacks first baseman Ildemaro Vargas, forcing him to leave the game in the top of the fifth inning.

The Dodgers announced that Muncy was removed due to both shortness of breath and a possible concussion, as Muncy was visibly bleeding from his nasal bridge. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Muncy was able to both walk off the field under his own power, but Dave Roberts noted that he will miss tomorrow’s opener against the Angels as he spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA following the 3-2 walk-off defeat.

“That was probably the main thing, just trying to make sure that he was ok. It was pretty violent… sore nose; there was some blood on his nose. He said he had some clarity when he got up and got into the clubhouse. He’ll be down tomorrow, which we intended anyway, but I think that he’ll be available over the weekend.”

Muncy also spoke with Watson about the collision and his status following Thursday’s game.

“As I’m running down the line, I saw [Vargas] in foul territory, so I got to the inside of the bag and I thought he was going to stay on that side. It felt like neither of us knew which direction we were going to go, and then we both went the wrong direction, and, bang… I’m doing alright— a little banged up but we’re doing alright.”

Tanner Scott couldn’t keep the game tied in the bottom of the ninth inning on Thursday, as he allowed a walk-off home run to Ketel Marte resulting in his second losing decision over the Dodgers’ last six games.

Scott spoke with Watson following the walk-off, crediting Marte for squaring up a pitch that he didn’t think was a mistake.

“You gotta tip your cap. He’s a good hitter… I knew he was going to be aggressive.”

Here’s hoping that Scott doesn’t receive anymore death threats this time around. Once is already too much.

The Dodger bullpen spoiled what was a dominant performance from Justin Wrobleski, as the southpaw followed up Shohei Ohtani with six scoreless innings on Thursday, allowing six hits and striking out four. Despite earning a no-decision, Wrobleski felt pleased with both his game plan and his execution on the mound against Arizona, as he spoke with Kirsten Watson following the game.

Happy Friday, everyone! Before you get too busy going about your day, take a minute to do your All-Star voting. Are any Cubs worthy of electing to the All-Star team? Once you’ve done that, come back and let’s get into the news stories wrapping up the week.

Aaron Judge continues to sit out as the Yankees evaluate his injury; Manny Machado is lamenting the Padres’ offense, while old friend Nick Castellanos no longer has to worry about the Padres offense as all, since they DFA’d him; meanwhile, the rumor mill continues to swirl around a Tarik Skubal trade; and of course since it’s a day that ends in Y, Commissioner Rob Manfred is saying something potentially contentious.

We’ve got all that and much more below, so let’s dive right in.

• All-Star voting has begun!
• Thomas Harrigan has eight stories to keep an eye on as All-Star voting gets underway.
• Aaron Judge remains benched as he and the Yankees await clarity on his injury. Story by Bryan Hoch.
• Ryan Phillips, meanwhile, is wondering whether the “rib injury” could be something more serious.
• Ben Clemens looks at the rotating cast of lesser-known names that keep showing up on top of the leaderboard.
• Michael Baumann shares that concerns about Adley Rutschman might have been premature.
• Nick Selbe explains why the AL MVP race may not be another sure thing for Aaron Judge.
• Juan Soto shares his feelings about the proposed MLB salary cap. Story by Will Sammon. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Hitters are now facing more pitchers than ever before.

• Ben Clemens looks at the unexpected rise of Louis Varland.
• Sorry Cubs fans, but we are not the most injury-prone team in baseball. Eno Sarris and Brittany Ghiroli look at teams with the most injuries, and question if it’s bad luck, or bad business. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Roki Sasaki had a brutal Spring Training and a terrible start to the season, but things are starting to turn around. Story by Jay Jaffe.
• Mark Bowman looks at some key takeaways from the Braves MLB-best season so far.
• Bailey Ober is blaming his elbow injury on slick balls at Fenway. (ESPN)
• Ryan Phillips looks at the six best trade destinations for Tarik Skubal.
• In a cruel bit of timing, the Padres decided to DFA Nick Castellanos while on the road in Philly… against the last team to release him. Story by Dennis Lin and Matt Gelb. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• You hate to see it (or love to see it if you’re cheering for the opposing team, I suppose).

• Reid Detmers did the near-impossible, climbing his way out of the bullpen and into the Angels’ starting rotation.
• Evan Drellich shares new comments from Rob Manfred about the failure of the luxury tax system. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Francisco Lindor shows his acting chops in a new trailer for Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day. Story by Brian Murphy.
• Manny Machado admits he is “frustrated” by the Padres’ dismal offense. (ESPN)
• The Astros have made some moves to help boost their roster. (AP)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. explains why he actually loves Yankees fans. (SI)
• Is something about to go down?

And tomorrow will be a better day than today, Buster. Make it so.

Triple-A: Norfolk Tides 4, Gwinnett Stripers (Braves) 3

The Tides trailed 3-0 after former Oriole Maverick Handley’s RBI single in the fourth, but Norfolk stormed back with four unanswered runs. Tommy Pham cut the deficit to one with a two-run home run, and Luis Vázquez tied the game with a base hit in the sixth inning. Jonathan Rodríguez drove in the go-ahead run with an RBI single in the seventh inning.

Pham finished 2-for-4 with a walk. Christian Encarnacion-Strand led Norfolk with three hits, and Ryan Noda recorded a pair of singles in four trips. Heston Kjerstad finished 0-for-5 with two strikeouts.

Nestor German came within one out of a quality start. German allowed six hits and three runs over 5.2 innings. He struck out seven and walked three.

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox 11, Akron RubberDucks (Guardians) 6

Chesapeake broke the game open with six runs in the fifth inning. Frederick Bencosme led the Baysox with four hits and two home runs out of the leadoff spot. Thomas Sosa went 2-for-5 but left the game for precautionary reasons after a collision on the basepaths. Adam Retzbach (2-for-3) finished with a game-high 5 RBIs after delivering a three-run homer. Griff O’Ferrall finished 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored.

Sebastian Gongora continued to pitch well with six strong innings. The former 11th-round pick limited Akron to three hits and two runs (one earned). Gongora struck out six and walked three. Chesapeake’s bullpen allowed four runs in three innings, but the big lead allowed for a drama-free finish.

High-A: Hudson Valley Renegades (Yankees) 10, Frederick Keys 1

Frederick trailed 7-0 after two innings. Kiefer Lord lasted only three innings with seven runs (five earned) and six hits allowed. Lord still managed to strike out five, but a long ball, a wild pitch, and a couple of walks did him in.

Victor Figueroa produced Frederick’s only run with a solo homer in the bottom of the ninth. The late-inning rally fell nine runs short. Leandro Arias tallied the Keys’ only other hit. Vance Honeycutt and Wehiwa Aloy both finished 0-for-3 with a walk. Ike Irish went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, and Braylin Tavera finished 0-for-2 with a pair of walks.

Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 4, Augusta GreenJackets (Braves) 2

Edwin Amparo launched a two-run homer in the top of the ninth to propel Delmarva to a 4-2 victory. DJ Layton drove in a run with a ground ball in the first inning, and Jose Perez doubled the lead with an RBI double in the fifth. Eight of Delmarva’s nine starters recorded a hit, but nobody notched a multi-hit game.

Esteban Mejia tossed three scoreless innings to start the game. Mejia allowed one hit, struck out three and walked two. Kailen Hamson earned the win with 3.2 innings of relief. Hamson surrendered a pair of runs on three hits.

Box scores

Friday’s schedule

Norfolk: at Gwinnett, 7:05 pm. Starter: Trace Bright (0-3, 7.18 ERA)

Chesapeake: vs Akron, 7:05 pm. Starter: TBD

Frederick: vs Hudson Valley, 7:00 pm. Starter: Caden Hunter (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Delmarva: at Augusta, 7:05 pm. Starter: Stephen Still (0-0, 2.84 ERA)

Every Minnesota Twins season, there’s a player who shines for a period of time and then is never memorably heard from again. Think Scott Diamond in 2012, Chris Colabello’s 2014 RBI binge, Michael Restovich winning a wild one in 2003, or Michael Ryan whipping the White Sox to end ‘03.

With the way 2016 had been going in the opening months, one might think that season the exception to the rule. Not so. For a brief moment of time, a LHP captured the imagination of Twins Territory during its darkest hour.

In 2010, the Twins drafted Pat Dean out of Boston College with the 102nd overall (3rd round) pick. Progressing nicely through the rungs of the minor league ladder, Dean put together 179 IP of 2.82 ERA ball in 2015 as a SP at AAA Rochester. When the bottom fell out of ‘16, Dean was called up to the big club in mid-May.

After two relief appearances—one an ostensible spot-start after a disastrous Jose Berrios (0.2 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 ER) debacle—Dean was given a chance to climb the bump from the jump.

His first start (5/21/16 versus Toronto): 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB in a 5-3 Twins victory.

Now, you might be thinking “what’s so memorable about a barely-across-the-finish line quality start?!” Well, you have to recall just how dire the straits were at that exact moment. A QS was akin to a miracle.

Pat’s next presentation (5/27/16 @ Seattle): A legitimately masterful 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 0 BB gem to out-duel King Felix Hernandez!

Again, this should not have been cause for celebration. But to an unmoored Molitor & Co. it felt like a revelation! One fan in particular was pretty jazzed about the proceedings…

I wish I could tell you this story had a ride-off-into-the-sunset happy ending. But to paraphrase Morgan Freeman’s character in The Shawshank Redemption: “MLB is no fairy tale world”.

Dean’s line with the ‘16 Twins: 1-6, 67.1 IP, 19 G, 9 GS, 6.28 ERA, 67 ERA+, 1.65 WHIP.

In fact, Dean’s major league career would come to a close upon 2016’s resolution. Stints in the Korean Baseball Organization (Kia Tigers), the Atlantic League (Southern Maryland Blue Crabs & Somerset Patriots), and the Albuquerque Isotopes (AAA Colorado) never produced a path back to The Show.

In the end, Pat Dean accomplished the dream: he made the big leagues. Sure, it didn’t last as long as he—or we—would have liked. But any MLB duration from Moonlight Graham to Nolan Ryan represents a minuscule fraction of athletes at the tippy top of their professional endeavor. Possessing the greatest spoonerism in the history of the Minnesota Twins doesn’t hurt his memorability factor, either.

It’s a Chicago legend, nurtured like a hot dog with everything except ketchup. During the 1945 World Series, local bar owner William Sianis brought his pet goat, Murphy, to a game between the hometown Cubs and the Detroit Tigers. Murphy was denied entry, because he smelled. Thus began the Curse of the Billy Goat, dooming Chicago’s NL entry to decades of also-ran status. As Sianis reportedly wrote team owner Philip Knight Wrigley after the Tigers won in 1945, “Who smells now?” The Cubs would not win another title until 2016.

Welcome to the world of magic in baseball. On the macro level, a goat can apparently change the fortunes of an entire team; on the micro level, batters engage in elaborate rituals at the plate, and no one dares to say “no-hitter” until the final out. It’s a narrative that goes back to baseball’s 19th-century origins, and it’s all chronicled in a new book out this week – The Magical Game: The Spirit and History of Baseball’s Superstitions, Rituals, and Curses by author, journalist, astrologer and New York Mets fan Addy Baird.

While cheering on the Mets, Baird says, “I found myself becoming a very superstitious baseball fan. It’s part of what made me want to write the book. Probably predictably, I got extra superstitious when the Mets, for once, played great baseball for some stretches.” Trying to influence a win, she says, “I changed the way I acted, things I did, wore, watched, said, ate.”

Baird has plenty of company within the pages of the book. There are turn-of-the-century managers like Connie Mack of the Philadelphia Athletics and John McGraw of the New York Giants who relied on human mascots to bring their teams good luck. In the 1980s and 1990s, Wade Boggs famously ate chicken before every game. In this decade, a Seattle Mariners fan believes that when he held a pair of slippers in his hand, it somehow sunk his team’s fortunes. And when the Tampa Bay Rays struggle in the middle innings, music from Middle Earth soothes a Rays fan who otherwise has no interest in Lord of the Rings.

Those superstitions appear to have bled into softball. This week it was revealed that a top college player eats ladybugs in the dugout for good luck.

Then there’s the larger-than-life narratives surrounding baseball, its mythologies and curses. Baseball hushed up its British connections and created its own made-in-America origin story featuring Civil War general Abner Doubleday and a ballfield in Cooperstown, New York. Multiple Major League teams became associated with curses – not just the Cubs but also the Boston Red Sox, who notoriously sold Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees. Champions in 1918, the Sox did not win another World Series until 2004. Over that 86-year drought, they became known for agonizing near-misses, notably in 1986 against Baird’s Mets, losing Game 6 of the World Series on a ball that went through Bill Buckner’s legs.

Asked what it is about baseball that makes it more prone to magic than other sports, Baird had several answers: The presence of luck. The structure of the game. And its repetitive nature.

“Basically, when a sport has fewer instances of scoring, luck is a bigger factor,” she says. Structurally, she notes, “[baseball] is one of the only games we play, and the only major North American sport, where the defense has the ball. The offense has a crazy power imbalance. It creates a really uncertain environment.”

What’s another surefire way to spark superstitious practices, according to researchers? An atmosphere of constant repetition, such as each time a batter comes to the plate over a 162-game regular season.

“A batter maybe sees more than a dozen pitches every game,” Baird says. “There’s a split second from the ball leaving the pitcher’s hand [and going] over the plate for you to try and hit it … it compounds the elements of uncertainty and luck, a perfect environment for magic to thrive.”

Baird is a politics journalist who previously worked in Washington DC, where she covered including the impeachments of Donald Trump to the January 6 riots. Describing herself as burnt-out, she decided to leave her full-time job and write a book. A friend advised her to pick a subject she loved, as she would be spending all her time with it.

“What do I care about? What can I spend four years on?” she recalls thinking. “The answers, for me, were baseball and magic.

“I’ve always loved magic, astrology, tarot cards, spirituality, religion. I’ve been very interested since I was a kid.” Her passion for baseball and the Mets is more recent, dating back to a decade ago and “a magical game with my father.”

There was an unexpected element of magic regarding this article: A copy of the book mysteriously disappeared from a room in this reporter’s home on the morning of the interview. Later in the day, with an hour to spare before the call, the book mysteriously reappeared in a different room.

“No way!” Baird says when informed of this. “No way.” With a laugh, she adds, “This book is a magical object.”

The Magical Game contains nine chapters, reflecting the nine innings of a baseball game. Baird, a former archivist, delved into newspapers on microfilm at the Library of Congress and interviewed experts such as John Thorn, the official historian of Major League Baseball. The book backs up its findings on baseball with insights from seemingly unrelated fields like psychology and anthropology: Baird discusses Joseph Campbell’s concept of the hero’s journey, and Bronislaw Malinowski’s study of South Pacific island fishermen in the early 20th century.

“In the inner lagoons, [the fishermen] had no magic rituals,” Baird says of Malinowski’s findings. “In the open sea, where it was more dangerous, and the catch was more uncertain, there were a lot of magic rituals involved … What happens in baseball is uncertainty, prediction of failure, a high degree of luck.” When it comes to rituals in such an environment, she says, “the human brain is almost perfectly designed to latch on in this way.”

Meanwhile, MLB’s Thorn noted that “the form of the game itself mirrors that of the Odyssey,” Baird says. “It’s the hero’s journey: You start at home,” where you either “strike out – literally or figuratively,” or “go on a journey where the goal is to come home. It’s the story of the Odyssey. The story of this myth is embedded in the game itself. Magic is in its very structure.”

The book asks whether sabermetrics, and recent rule changes aimed at shortening games, have made the magic disappear in baseball. Baird has shifted her stance on this. In the summer of 2022, she pitched a book chapter on the death of magic in the national pastime. One year later, MLB debuted its pitch clock.

“I pitched the chapter, ‘baseball is dead, the magic is over, the league killed it by implementing new rules,’” Baird says. After doing more research, she had a realization: “I was entering a long tradition of people who had been saying this since the 1860s: ‘They don’t play baseball like they used to, baseball’s dying if not dead.” What she’s come to believe is that “the game should evolve, an unchanging thing is a dead thing.”

As for sabermetrics, Baird says, they “help us to see what makes [baseball] unique, what makes it special, what makes players exceptionally good … Those numbers reveal to us the magic.”

By the end of her book project, not only did she have a completed manuscript, but an additional career path. In addition to continuing with her journalism, now for the Deseret News, she has also become a practicing astrologer.

“It was one of my really interesting side quests,” Baird says, adding that now, “I do readings for people, reading charts.”

Whether you’re an Astros fan or an astrologer, a Cardinals enthusiast or a tarot card reader, the book has something for everyone.

“I always tell people, it’s a book for people who love baseball,” Baird says, “also for those who do not care about baseball at all.” And, she adds, “it’s a book for the people who love magic, looking at it through a lens they may never have considered before.”

Associated Press | Larry Fleisher: The Yankees maintained hope throughout the week that Aaron Judge’s rib injury wouldn’t be too serious, with the captain undergoing a long series of tests and imaging. That hope was dashed last night, as the team announced that Judge has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right rib and will be shut down for four to six weeks before being re-evaluated. Judge at least dodged a bullet in the form of thoracic outlet syndrome, but that’s only so much comfort to the Yankees, who will be without Judge for a significant chunk of the rest of the season.

The Athletic | Chris Kirschner: The news of Judge missing months of time quickly conjured bad memories for fans of the 2023 campaign, when the Yankees finished with their just 82 wins, their worst season in 31 years. However, Kirschner argues that the 2026 squad is in a better position to withstand Judge’s absence. No team in baseball is going to improve upon losing their MVP of course, but the only regulars from 2023 who were at or above league average by wRC+ were Gleyber Torres (122) and a still-declining DJ LeMahieu (100). In contrast, this year’s club so far has Ben Rice (184, actually better than Judge’s 150), Cody Bellinger (137), José Caballero (105), Trent Grisham (101), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (100). Bench bats Paul Goldschmidt and Amed Rosario surpass that mark, and there’s obviously potential from Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Domínguez’s forthcoming returns as well.

CBS Sports | RotoWire: Stanton, who was cleared to resume running last week, is working his way back from a calf strain that landed him on the injured list on April 28th. Per manager Aaron Boone, he will take live batting practice again this weekend and will continue to ramp up running. He won’t be ready in time to be activated ahead of next week’s road trip that starts in Cleveland on June 8th, though. Activation in mid-June feels plausible, especially because thanks to Trajekt pitching machines, the DH sometimes doesn’t actually need rehab assignments.

MLB.com | Bryan Hoch: The Yankees have been without Domínguez since he hurt his left AC joint against the left-field wall on a great defensive play back on May 7th. He appears to be closer than Stanton and will officially start a rehab stint this weekend, playing minor league games on Friday and Sunday. Boone said that the Martian is expected to play more games past that, though, so it’s not as though he will immediately tag in for Judge. He is close, though.

ESPN | Jeff Passan: Passan published an early Trade Deadline preview, and of course the Yankees were mentioned. The MLB insider said that even though New York doesn’t need Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the moment he officially becomes available, “The Yankees will gauge the cost, because even if you don’t need something, that doesn’t mean you don’t want it.”

Passan, however, did say that Isaac Paredes is their best option “in an ideal world,” and that they need power arms for their bullpen, although he speculated the latter might come from within the organization.

Shortstop Ezequiel Pena was promoted to Low-A Myrtle Beach from the ACL Cubs

Iowa Cubs

Rained out. They’ll play a doubleheader on Saturday.

Knoxville Smokies

The Knoxville Smokies defenestrated the Birmingham Barons (White Sox), 6-2.

Connor Schultz pitched four innings and gave up just one run on three hits. The one run came on a solo home run in the fourth. Schultz struck out seven and walked just one.

Evan Taylor threw the next two innings, didn’t allow either a run or a hit and got the win. He struck out three and walked one.

Center fielder Andy Garriola hit a grand slam in the first inning, his tenth on the season. Garriola was 1 for 4.

Third baseman Jefferson Rojas was 2 for 4 and scored once.

Left fielder Carter Trice was 2 for 4 and scored twice.

Second baseman Ed Howard went 1 for 3 with an RBI double and a sac fly.

Garriola’s slam.

Howard’s RBI double.

A great catch by Trice.

South Bend Cubs

The South Bend Cubs were hijacked by the Quad Cities River Bandits (Royals), 4-3.

Cole Reynolds pitched the first four innings and allowed two runs on three hits. He walked three and struck out four.

Ben Johnson threw the next three innings and took the loss. Johnson allowed two runs on three hits. He walked one and struck out one.

Second baseman Alex Madera went 2 for 3 and scored once.

A nice catch by left fielder Jose Escobar.

Myrtle Beach Pelicans

The Myrtle Beach Pelicans got bitten by the Charleston River Dogs (Rays), 9-5.

Hayden Frank started and got the loss. Frank made one big mistake—a three-run home run in the third inning. Frank allowed three runs on three hits over three innings. He walked two and struck out two.

First baseman Michael Carico hit a solo home run in the top of the ninth, his fourth of the season. Carico went 2 for 5.

DH Logan Poteet doubled twice in a 3 for 5 night. He drove in one run with a double in the seventh inning and scored once.

Second baseman Yahil Melendez also hit two doubles. He was 2 for 4 with a walk. He had three RBI.

Shortstop Derniche Valdez was 2 for 4 with a walk and one run scored.

ACL Cubs

Beat the Angels, 6-3.