The snow – except in Colorado – has melted.
The winter coats are being shoved into the back of the closets.
Summer is around the corner, and it’s time for teams to start making honest assessments of themselves.
Nearly three months remain until Major League Baseball's Aug. 3 trade deadline, but it’s no longer appropriate to say it’s still early. The season is 40 games old, with teams having completed nearly 25% of their schedule.
The phone calls have begun, letting the struggling teams know that plenty of operators are standing by, waiting for the time they’re ready to seriously engage in trades.
In a survey of club executives and scouts, here are the five most intriguing teams to watch as we slowly head into trade deadline talks.
The Mets absolutely stink, and rival executives believe they have virtually no chance to turn it around. But, hey, crazy things can happen in this game.
The Mets had the best record in baseball last June, sitting with a 45-24 record and a 96% chance to make the playoffs until their historic collapse. The Cleveland Guardians were 15 ½ games back in July last year before a finishing kick greater than Golden Tempo to win the AL Central.
Still, executives and scouts believe the Mets just don’t have the personnel to turn it around, putting out lineups that look more suited to rebuilding teams than the most expensive team in baseball.
This is why the Mets soon may be the center of attention once they realize that this season is a lost cause, letting their rivals know they are open for business. They have three of the top trade chips in the game in starters Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes and infielder Bo Bichette.
Peralta, 2-3, 3.12 ERA, acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in January, is a free agent after the season, after failing to reach an agreement on extension talks. They could re-engage before the trade deadline, but if they don’t reach a deal, why not get something for him now?
Holmes, 4-2, 1.69 ERA, is off to another great start in the second season to a three-year, $38 million contract. Holmes is under contract for $12 million in 2027, but with the season he’s having, will certainly exercise his opt out and become a free agent. He may too valuable on the trade market for the Mets to take that gamble he won’t leave.
Bichette has gotten off to a miserable start (.237, two homers, 16 RBIs) but the two-time All-Star has a glossy resume. He signed a three-year, $126 million contract last winter with two opt outs, and considering the season the Mets are having and the boos serenading him, it’s difficult to see him wanting to stay put. And if he leaves a free agent, there will be no qualifying offered attached for the Mets to receive a draft pick. Why not trade him and let his new team deal with the opt-outs?
The Tigers invited teams to make offers for two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal during the winter, saying they had an obligation to at least listen, no matter how exorbitant the demands would be before they’d seriously consider moving him.
Instead of trading him, the Tigers even doubled down, signing free-agent starter Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million contract, and opening the season with a franchise-record $236.6 million payroll.
Well, six weeks into the season, and this has become the Tigers’ worst nightmare.
Skubal underwent elbow surgery to remove a bone chip and is sidelined for about two months. Starters Casey Mize and Justin Verlander are on the IL, too. Starter Reese Olson is out for the season. And they have 10 other players on the IL.
They are 18-21, and are winless since Skubal was placed on the IL.
The best thing they’ve got going for the Tigers is that they happen to reside in the worst division in baseball, where it’s virtually impossible to fall out of the race. They are only 2 ½ games out of first place in the AL Central with the Cleveland Guardians the only team in the division with a winning record.
Yet, if the Tigers somehow do fall out of the race, look out.
The Tigers would have the most marquee player on the trade block with Skubal since the San Diego Padres traded Juan Soto to the Yankees. The question is just how much could the Tigers get for Skubal, who has now had three arm surgeries on his career, is earning $32 million, and certainly will be seeking a free agent contract exceeding $400 million?
The Tigers would need Skubal to look like the Skubal pre-surgery, or at least back on the mound and pitching in games to get the value they need in return.
Then again, if Skubal is back pitching like himself again in July, it’s hard to believe the Tigers will be out of the race at the trade deadline.
“I just think they have too much money invested in this team to give up," one GM said. “I just can’t see them moving Skubal. They’re into this so deep."
San Francisco Giants
The West Coast version of the Worst Team Money Can Buy: the Giants, who haven’t had a winning record since 2021.
Buster Posey, Giants president of baseball operations, let everyone know his level of frustration by giving up on two-time Gold Glove winner Patrick Bailey on Saturday, and sending him to the Cleveland Guardians for left-handed fringe prospect Matt Wilkinson and their first-round competitive balance pick in this year’s draft, the 29th overall.
Bailey, who hit .222 with six homers and 55 RBIs last season, was off to a horrific start, hitting .146 with one homer, five RBI and a .396 OPS, and had lost his starting job.
Rivals wonder who could go next.
The Giants would love to unload outfielder Jung Hoo Lee ($85 million left on his contract), shortstop Willy Adames ($161 million remaining), first baseman Rafael Devers ($226.5 million remaining) and Matt Chapman ($125 million remaining) and start over.
They just don’t have that luxury.
Instead, they may no choice but to shop their biggest trade chip in starter Robbie Ray, who will be a free agent after the season. Some executives insist they also would listen to offers for ace Logan Webb. Yet, it’s highly unlikely the Giants would move him considering that he’s a premier starter with three years remaining on his reasonable five-year, $90 million contract.
“They’ve got an old team that’s underachieving with a lot of money on their books," one executive said. “They’ve had to listen on Webb. It makes too much sense."
The Diamondbacks find themselves in no-man’s land at the moment, not good enough to be a serious contender, but not bad enough to be a seller at the deadline.
Mike Hazen, president of baseball operations, may find himself in the same predicament as a year ago when he waited as long as possible before waving the white flag, trading starter Merrill Kelly and infielders Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the deadline.
They are hovering around .500, and after deciding to DFA starting center fielder Alek Thomas, let the entire team know that they weren’t going to simply sit around and let this season dry up into the desert night.
The Diamondbacks know that reinforcements are coming, highlighted by Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes’ expected return in August, but if Hazen’s patience runs out, they could look to be sellers again.
They would certainly trade starter Zac Gallen, who’s a free agent again after this season, and would listen on offers for starters Kelly (again), Ryne Nelson and Michael Soroka. The biggest prize would be Eduardo Rodriguez.
Rodriguez, who signed a four-year, $80 million contract, was a huge disappointment the first two years of his deal. He went just 12-13 with a 5.02 ERA, giving up 234 hits and 79 walks in 204 1/3 innings.
These days, Rodriguez is pitching as well as he ever has in his career, going 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his first seven starts. He is earning $21 million this year and $190 million in 2027. Yet, he could add another $17 million to the deal with a vesting option in 2028 if he pitches 150 innings in 2027 or a combined 300 innings in 2026-2027.
He would be the perfect piece to move if the Diamondbacks not only wanted to replenish their farm system, but also save money.
The Astros put together one of the finest dynasties since the Yankees from 2017-2024 when they won four American League pennants, two World Series championships and reached the postseason eight years.
Yet, after missing the postseason last year, and off to a 16-23 start this season with their playoff odds at 15.6% by FanGraphs, it’s fair to wonder if the glory days have ended.
They’ve been hammered with injuries and a battered pitching staff, but if their fate doesn’t turn around in two months, they could be forced to be sellers at the trade deadline for the first time in a decade.
If that happens, the buzzards will be circling, with teams asking what it will take to pry away first baseman Christian Walker, all-world closer Josh Hader, All-Star shortstop Jeremy Pena, third baseman Isaac Paredes and yes, even DH Yordan Alvarez.
Astros owner Jim Crane is one of the most competitive executives in the game, and has repeatedly said that he wants to give his team every chance to be a perennial contender, but this is perhaps a chance to completely overhaul their franchise by bringing in some of the game’s elite prospects.
Certainly, there’s no need to move on from the Alvarez, Hader, Pena and Walker quartet, who are under control for at least the next two seasons. Walker and Pena will be free agents after the 2027 season. Alvarez and Hader are free agents after 2028. Paredes will be a free agent after the season unless the Astros pick up a $13.35 million club option.
Yet, Walker, Alvarez and Hader also are owed $110 million and Pena likely another $35 million in salary arbitration. If they’re moved, the Astros would have plenty of money to re-imagine their team.
Walker, who’s having a nice resurgence, hitting .296 with nine homers, 27 RBI and a .958 OPS, would provide a fabulous influx of power and defense to any team. Pena has become one of the finest all-around shortstops in the game. Hader, when he returns from the IL in May, is the most electrifying closer not named Mason Miller.
And Alvarez, who’s hitting .324 with 13 homers, 29 RBI and an 1.080 OPS?
“He’s the greatest pure hitter I’ve seen in this game since Barry Bonds," one veteran scout said. “This guy is unbelievable. He’s the best pure hitter in the game, and it’s not close."
Said one executive: “If they traded him, I think they’d get a better package than what the Nationals got for Juan Soto."
Realistically there’s little chance that Alvarez would actually be moved, but if the Astros are offered such a deal, it would be malpractice for the team not to at least listen.
Around the basepaths
– Part of the San Francisco Giants' objective in trading catcher Patrick Bailey to the Cleveland Guardians is to now select UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky in July’s amateur draft.
The Giants, who acquired the No. 29 overall pick in the draft in the trade, picked up an extra $3.27 million in slot value, giving them a total of $17.35 million in bonus pool money.
That extra money would be used to draft Cholowsky, if all goes according to their grand plan.
The Giants have the fourth pick in the draft, but if Cholowsky demands a signing bonus exceeding slot value, the Giants will be waiting. Their slot value at the No. 4 pick is $8.988 million, while the Chicago White Sox have the No. 1 pick and a slot value of $11.35 million.
Yet, the Giants are so enamored with Cholowsky that they could privately let him know they’ll even exceed the White Sox’s slot value. If the Giants pull it off, it clearly puts shortstop Willy Adames on notice, who’s under contract through 2031.
– General managers hope to convince MLB officials this winter to alter their restrictions on roster pitcher limits, which would also quiet the unrest by teams who believe the Dodgers have an inherit advantage having Shohei Ohtani as a two-way player.
The current rules limit teams to 13 pitchers on their 26-man roster, but since Ohtani is a two-way player, he doesn’t count towards the Dodgers’ roster limit, in essence giving the Dodgers 14 pitchers.
GMs want the ability to construct the roster the way they desire, enabling them to have more pitchers on the roster and fewer position players, if they so choose. The original rule was designed to speed up games with fewer available relievers and pitching changes, but with a pitch clock now greatly speeding up the game, in place, that concern may be alleviated.
– Baseball executives cringe at the thought of expansion, bringing 26 more pitchers in the game when there already is a massive shortage.
The pitching shortage is so bad that teams have already cancelled games in the Arizona Complex League because of the dearth of pitching. The Dodgers’ rookie team walked 22 batters in a recent game that lasted more than 4 hours.
– If the Padres don’t have enough problems with their struggles of late, one of their prized pitching prospects self-deported to Mexico after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge of being part of a human smuggling operation in southern Arizona.
Humberto Cruz, 19, ranked as one of the Padres’ top five pitching prospects, was transporting two illegal immigrants that paid him $1,000 per person.
He was charged with one felony count of transportation of illegal aliens for profit and one misdemeanor count of accessory after the fact to improper entry.
Cruz is expected to lose his work visa for 10 years but can re-apply after five years.
He will be on the Padres’ restricted list.
– The Arizona Diamondbacks raised some eyebrows when they designated starting center fielder Alek Thomas for assignment when they could have optioned him back to Triple-A Reno, and also had room on their 40-man roster.
Yet, Mike Hazen, D-backs president of baseball operations, wanted Thomas to at have the opportunity to play for someone else without going back to the minors, exposing him to waivers if they’re unable to trade him.
“If you're not exposed to 29 other teams where they could have had you, there may be a different mindset in terms of where you stand in the game of baseball," Hazen said. “If I option you, and you've gotten no exposure to 29 other teams, you can say that the Diamondbacks are holding me in Triple-A, but some other team would take me.
"That argument gets taken off the table if he gets through waivers, because he will both have to clear a trade threshold and a waiver threshold."
The D-backs, however, are expected to trade the speedy center fielder with several teams already checking in.
– Reliever Osvaldo Bido, 30, still has a ways to go before he eclipse the MLB record for playing on 14 different teams, but no one can top him for being designated for assignment six times since Dec. 5, and seven times placed on waivers.
Let’s see, he has gone from the Athletics to Atlanta to Tampa Bay to Miami, to the Angels, to the Yankees, back to Atlanta, to the White Sox, and now is waiting to see where he goes next after being DFA’d by the White Sox.
– There are a whole lot of teams kicking themselves watching veteran starter Nick Martinez pitching lights out for the surprising Tampa Bay Rays, going 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA. The Rays signed him during the winter on a one-year, $13 million deal, paying him just $9 million this year with a $4 million buyout on a $20 million mutual option in 2027.
– Now that Minnesota Twins ace Joe Ryan dodged an injury scare, he’ll certainly be one of the most highly sought-after trade candidates on the market this summer.
– This is the 17th time in Yankees’ history they’ve won at least 25 of their first 36 games.
They reached the postseason in all 16 previous times, winning 14 American League pennants and 11 World Series titles, according to researcher Katie Sharp.
– The Chicago Cubs, who have already produced two 10-game winning streaks for the first time since 1935, have also won 15 consecutive games at Wrigley Field for the first time since 1935.
The explanation?
“I’m not the type of person to believe something you can’t physically see,” Cubs starter Shota Imanaga said after his last start, “but I feel like at Wrigley there’s this power that you can’t see, but you can kind of feel where it’s like with the fans and the cheering, where the other team feels the pressure if you’re on the mound or if you’re up to bat.
“And then on the other side, when we’re up to bat or if we’re pitching, you feel that extra push and support of this power you can’t see. I think there is something there.”
– Hard to believe, but the Mets still have not won a single game when trailing after eight innings since the end of the 2024 season.
– Atlanta made a painful decision three years ago when they let first baseman Freddie Freeman walk away in free agency, but his replacement, Matt Olson, is having another MVP-caliber season. Olson, who signed an eight-year, $168 million contract after being traded from the Athletics, has played in every single game since the trade, and has 13 homers, 33 RBI and a 1.033 OPS.
– Scouts are alarmed at Phillies shortstop Trea Turner’s rough start.
Turner, the two-time batting champion who hit a league-leading .304 last season, is off to the worst start of his career, hitting just .226 with a .627 OPS and has been erratic defensively.
Turner, 33 in June, still is under contract through 2033 with an annual $27 million salary.
– The Diamondbacks did a deep dive on their offensive struggles and discovered that they have seen 400 fewer pitches than they had seen at the same time a year ago when they scored the sixth-most runs in baseball.
“It was alarming," Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said.
The Diamondbacks have a 25% chase rate, worst in the major leagues, while ranking 29th in walks and on-base percentage.
And entered Saturday with a 17-20 record.
– It took 10 long years, but outfielder Mickey Moniak is finally living up to the expectations of being the No. 1 pick in the draft by the Philadelphia Phillies, and now with the Colorado Rockies.
Moniak, who turns 28 this week, enters the weekend with 11 home runs and an NL-leading 1.0671 OPS.
– Athletics slugger Nick Kurtz, the AL Rookie of the Year, was such a huge Phillies fan growing up in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, that he named family animals after his favorite players.
He had dogs growing up named after Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Hunter Pence, and still has a family cat named, “Harper,’" after Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper.
Follow Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB trade deadline rumors 2026 take shape: Sellers to watch
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