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Our Saturday MLB moneyline predictions have a nice mix of short favorites and solid underdogs in terrific individual and team matchups, including the San Diego Padres as -156 home favorites when they host the Minnesota Twins.
Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 22.
MLB moneyline picks for August 22
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
vs | -117 |
vs | -127 |
vs | -170 |
vs | -127 |
vs | -122 |
vs | -144 |
vs | +213 |
vs | -108 |
vs | +178 |
vs | -113 |
vs | -108 |
vs | +233 |
vs | -122 |
vs | -138 |
vs | -156 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-22.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 22
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from the previous two weeks.
Blue Jays vs Yankees: Yankees (-117)
Yankees win probability: 53.9%
New York holds a massive bullpen advantage with a 2.94 SIERA compared to Toronto’s league-worst 5.30 SIERA. While Toronto posted a higher BABIP (.319 vs. .290) and wOBA (.321 vs. .295), the Yankees' late-inning relief dominance provides the decisive edge to lock down the victory in the late frames.
Braves vs Brewers: Brewers (-127)
Brewers win probability: 55.9%
Milwaukee’s bullpen boasts an elite 3.43 SIERA, easily outclassing Atlanta’s 3.64 mark. Over the last two weeks, the Brewers’ offense has been far superior, posting a .325 wOBA and .330 BABIP against Atlanta’s ice-cold lineup (.264 wOBA, .258 BABIP). Milwaukee holds clear command across the entire plate-discipline and run-prevention profile.
Nationals vs Marlins: Marlins (-170)
Marlins win probability: 63%
Miami holds offensive leverage over Washington during the last two weeks, generating a .329 wOBA and .319 BABIP compared to the Nationals’ .306 wOBA and .299 BABIP. While Washington’s bullpen holds a slight SIERA edge (3.44 vs. 3.77), Miami’s superior efficiency and run creation at the dish should deliver the home victory.
Cardinals vs Phillies: Phillies (-127)
Phillies win probability: 55.9%
Philadelphia matches up cleanly against St. Louis with a superior bullpen SIERA of 3.91 versus the Cardinals' 4.53 mark. The Phillies' lineup also holds a distinct offensive edge, posting a higher wOBA (.332 to .329) and BABIP (.297 to .288) to control the scoreboard in this home matchup.
Rays vs Orioles: Rays (-122)
Rays win probability: 55%
Tampa Bay brings an explosive offense into Baltimore, generating a .340 wOBA and .311 BABIP compared to Baltimore’s .328 wOBA and .290 BABIP. Although the Orioles feature a lower bullpen SIERA (3.50 vs. 3.81), the Rays' elite run-scoring efficiency gives them the decisive road advantage.
Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-144)
Rangers win probability: 59%
Texas gets home-field positioning despite the Angels boasting a slate-best 2.92 bullpen SIERA over Texas’s 4.40 mark. While Los Angeles produced a slightly higher wOBA (.285 vs. .267) and BABIP (.299 vs. .264) recently, the Rangers’ overall lineup and starting pitching edge should carry them through.
Athletics vs Astros: Athletics (+213)
Athletics win probability: 31.9%
The Athletics hold significant offensive leverage over ice-cold Houston, outproducing the Astros in wOBA (.319 vs. .269) and BABIP (.273 vs. .226). While Houston maintains a bullpen edge (3.52 vs. 4.36 SIERA), laying -223 chalk on a sub-.270 wOBA lineup is unwise, making the A’s a live dog.
Mets vs White Sox: White Sox (-108)
White Sox win probability: 51.9%
The White Sox offense has been scorching, posting a slate-best .341 wOBA alongside a .291 BABIP to outpace the Mets (.321 wOBA, .285 BABIP). With Chicago’s bullpen also holding a clear SIERA advantage (4.00 vs. 4.35), the White Sox are primed to take this near coin-flip contest.
Giants vs Red Sox: Giants (+178)
Giants win probability: 36%
San Francisco catches Boston in a classic trap spot at Fenway. The Giants' bullpen provides competitive swing-and-miss depth with a solid 3.97 SIERA, keeping pace with Boston’s 3.74 mark. If San Francisco can exploit regression on Boston’s inflated .316 BABIP, the Giants' plus-money price offers legitimate upset value.
Tigers vs Royals: Tigers (-113)
Tigers win probability: 53.1%
Detroit features a significant late-inning bullpen edge with a 3.81 SIERA compared to Kansas City’s struggling 4.90 mark. While the Royals maintain slightly higher contact metrics (.316 wOBA, .288 BABIP vs. Detroit’s .298, .281), the Tigers’ massive bullpen advantage will tilt the final frames.
Cubs vs Mariners: Mariners (-108)
Mariners win probability: 51.9%
Seattle holds the upper hand out of the bullpen with a 3.76 SIERA against the Cubs’ 4.34 mark. While Chicago has posted stronger surface contact numbers (.333 wOBA and .276 BABIP vs. Seattle’s .301 and .284), the Mariners’ strikeout-heavy relief core will stifle Chicago’s late rallies at home.
Pirates vs Dodgers: Pirates (+233)
Pirates win probability: 30%
Pittsburgh brings sharp pricing behind a bullpen boasting a 3.68 SIERA, easily outperforming the Dodgers' 3.90 relief mark across the last 14 days. The Pirates also hold the edge in recent offensive stats with a .320 wOBA and .307 BABIP over Los Angeles (.308 wOBA, .265 BABIP), making Pittsburgh wildly live at +233.
Guardians vs Rockies: Guardians (-122)
Guardians win probability: 55%
Cleveland enters Coors Field with a dominant bullpen posting a 3.71 SIERA against Colorado’s 4.78 mark. Colorado carries a slightly higher wOBA (.313 vs. .305) and BABIP (.280 vs. .276), but the Guardians’ superior, low-strikeout profile and massive bullpen edge will keep the Rockies in check.
Reds vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-138)
Diamondbacks win probability: 58%
Arizona’s offense holds a massive advantage over Cincinnati, boasting a .338 wOBA and .280 BABIP against the Reds’ league-worst .259 wOBA and .229 BABIP. Despite Cincinnati’s 3.48 bullpen SIERA beating Arizona’s 4.38, the Diamondbacks' overwhelming offensive firepower makes them the clear favorite.
Twins vs Padres: Padres (-156)
Padres win probability: 60.9%
San Diego features an elite all-around profile with a 3.34 bullpen SIERA and a slate-leading .341 wOBA (.270 BABIP). While Minnesota’s offense has matched their production (.339 wOBA, .341 BABIP), San Diego’s lockdown bullpen over the Twins’ slightly worse 3.57 SIERA secures the home victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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