Category: Baseball

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The Toronto Blue Jays open a weekend set at Fenway Park against a red-hot Boston Red Sox club, sending Trey Yesavage to the mound against left-hander Patrick Sandoval.

Toronto finally broke out of its slump on Thursday, and I’m backing the bats that did the damage, starting with Ernie Clement.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, July 24 matchup.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases (-110)

Ernie Clement has the shortest line for total bases, yet I’m still drawn to this pick. On the simplest level, he’s been the Toronto Blue Jays' most consistent hitter, especially in July, where he has at least one hit in 13 of 17 games. 

But his advantage Friday runs deeper than the box score.

The Boston Red Sox send out lefty Patrick Sandoval, who has allowed 14 hits in 9.1 innings this season and leans on a shaky mix of sliders and changeups. Sandoval throws the slider 35.5% of the time, and opponents have teed off on it this year, slugging .667 over a 50-pitch sample. 

Clement is the slider-hitting extraordinaire on this roster, hitting the pitch for a +2 run value, per Baseball Savant, along with a .339 average and .475 slugging mark.

I wouldn’t play this bet past -110. 

COVERS INTEL: Clement has always hit left-handers better, with a .725 career OPS against southpaws versus .669 against righties, giving him an edge Friday against Patrick Sandoval.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

For the same-game parlay, I’m stacking Toronto’s momentum from Thursday’s win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases leads the way, backed by his platoon edge against a left-hander and his long history of damage at Fenway Park.

Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts is an aggressive play, even if he’s punched out five or more in three of his last five starts and carries an 8.7 K/9.

I’ll cap it with the Blue Jays moneyline at plus money, a live price for a club that just snapped its skid against a starter making only his third appearance of the year.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Blue Jays moneyline

Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+525)

This whole Blue Jays offense seems cursed to hit nothing but singles this season, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be primed for a big day, especially at Fenway Park.

Red Sox fans must be terrified of Vladdy, who owns a .342/.415/.589 slash line at their home park with 12 home runs and 49 RBI in just 56 games.

That’s a 35-homer pace.

Guerrero already went deep at Fenway earlier this year, and he arrives equipped to keep mashing on the road after two clutch hits on Thursday helped Toronto break out of its slump.

He’s also been far better against lefties (.784 OPS) than righties (.668 OPS) this season, and Boston is sending out a lefty. I’d play this until +500 and, as usual, keep it to a quarter unit.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +105 | Boston -125
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-180) | Boston -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend

Patrick Sandoval carries a 1.71 WHIP through his first two starts of the season, allowing 14 hits across 9.1 innings, which suggests he’s still shaking off some rust. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info

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Tyler Kinley’s relationship to the Braves has been an odd one over the last year.

Before 2025, Kinley had a career 107/102/109 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) and 1.2 fWAR in just under 260 innings. Most of that value was accrued in 2022, when his season was cut short by injury. It’s also important to keep in mind that there’s at least some evidence that the Coors Field park effects are overly punishing to hitters and therefore overly generous to pitchers.

Before the Braves traded for him in 2025, it was more of the same: 118/96/113. Those numbers are barely rosterable for a reliever aside from a low HR/FB. The Braves hoped they could get more out of him, and they did in some ways, though it wasn’t exactly him hitting a new gear or anything: 17/68/105. Basically, Kinley had an epic run of not having runs charged to him and allowing very homers… while pitching as effectively (or, I guess, ineffectively) like the Kinley of old. The Braves had Kinley throw fewer fastballs, work harder on getting the fastball up, and change the way he threw his curveball so that it came out of a similar arm slot as his slider. They had him focus on getting the breaking pitches in the zone, with the fastball going above it.

Kinley did all of this. There is a very clear breakpoint in his pitch usage and location, among other things, between his time with the Braves and the Rockies. This wasn’t a matter of an inability to implement desired changes. It was just that it didn’t really matter. Though Kinley did halve his walk rate as a result of the changes, getting the ball in the zone or higher made him less of a grounder-generator and didn’t help him in the strikeout department. The fewer walks were great, but that was largely the only benefit.

While we don’t know the reasons, all of this led to a surprising-at-the-time-I-guess? declining of his team option in the offseason. There was some clamor about $5.5 million being an okay price for Kinley’s services, but from my perspective, there was no reason to give a reliever who never pitched all that well and couldn’t even manage a 100 xFIP- with the Braves anything above league minimum in the first place. The Braves ultimately re-signed Kinley for $4.25 million, essentially saving $1.25 million relative to his option price.

There was a stretch, a relatively brief one, where Kinley at least seemed better. Through May 3, he kind of seemed like he was picking up where he left off in 2025, with a little bit better performance overall: 42/82/94. His walk rate was back up to its former gross levels, but he was actually striking a bit more guys out. A reliever with an xFIP- around 90, especially one that you believe has some contact/homer suppression, can definitely play in a bullpen.

It didn’t last, though. Over the next month or so, Kinley went 111/130/96. His walk rate fell, but so did the grounder rate. You can write off the homers, as well, HR/FB stuff, but it didn’t feel great. His elbow may not have felt great, either, as he missed about a few weeks with inflammation.

At this point, Kinley has been back for about a month, and his performance has been ghastly. 231/202/132 is really bad. His strikeout rate plummeted, his walk rate is bad again, he’s barely getting any grounders. Joel Payamps got canned after a 193/137/116 line. Aaron Bummer got canned after a 179/207/136 line. The Braves ate some money in both of those cases. Kinley could very well be next: his season line is now 107/125/103, and has been getting dramatically worse basically every other outing or so.

Probably the biggest issue is that in aggregate, Kinley is losing any reason for positive prognosis. Even if he was never a guy to dream on given his track record, you could at least… ponder that he’d be okay for a while? But, with his season xFIP- crossing the 100 mark again, and with him not even doing the homer suppression thing, there’s not much there there. Basically every plate discipline metric is down across the board from his Braves stint in 2025, and his fastball command has been an utter disaster. While he’s really honed his slider release such that it hits the corner of the zone over and over, that’s actually not as helpful when everyone knows it’s coming at least two out of every three pitches, and he has no idea where his fastball is going. (The fact that the slider’s shape isn’t very good is another detriment — batters have an easier time hitting it relative to another slider if they know it’s coming and they can reach it, and they definitely know it’s coming and can reach it in the zone.)

So, put all that together, consider the impending Trade Deadline, and… will Tyler Kinley make it to season’s end with the Braves? Or, will they eat another partial reliever salary to reconfigure their bullpen to hopefully be a bit better?

Tyler Wells wasn’t supposed to be here. By here, I mean, in the Majors at all, and certainly not taking the mound in the ninth inning with a lead to protect for this Orioles team. But injury luck has a way of rewriting careers, and Wells’s is one of the stranger paths in today’s game.

We can start with how he arrived into the Orioles org. Wells was a selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 15th round of the 2016 draft out of Cal State San Bernardino, #453 overall—this is hardly a pedigree that promises a big-league career. Wells reached Double-A in 2018 with a 2.49 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 119⅓ innings—so far, so good. But then he blew out his elbow, had Tommy John surgery in May 2019, then the pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor league season. That is how Tyler Wells ended up never throwing another competitive pitch for the Twins. Minnesota left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, and the Orioles snatched him up that December.

The 6-foot-8 prospect seemed a long shot, indeed, with his rebuilt elbow and pedestrian fastball. This is true of Rule 5 picks generally, who have to stick on their new team’s active roster for the entire following season or get offered back to their old club, not to mention pitching fifteenth-rounders. Most don’t make it. Over the 2018 and 2019 drafts combined, only seven of 25 picks (28%) met that bar.

Well, Tyler Wells has beaten those odds by a wide margin: not only did he stick with Baltimore in 2021, he made 44 appearances and pitched to decent numbers: 4.11 ERA, .192 average against and  a 0.91 WHIP. This was a 52-win team only, but Wells was already showing his value.

Wells moved into Baltimore’s rotation in 2022, his rise mirroring that of the team—at 83-79, they finished just outside of the playoffs—and in 2023, the Orioles’ fourth best season in team history, Wells emerged as one of the team’s best starters. Well, he had a tale of two halves: through his first 18 starts of 2023, Wells posted a 3.18 ERA and an MLB-best 0.93 WHIP, one of the biggest surprises in the American League. But the innings caught up with him. By late July, Wells had thrown 113⅔ innings, a career high, and it showed: an 11.00 ERA over his next nine innings, three ugly starts in a row, resulted in a demotion to Double-A Bowie.

Wells clawed his way back to Baltimore that fall, finishing the year with eight scoreless outings between the regular season and the playoffs, but questions had been raised about his fragility, despite his undeniable talent. The next few seasons only reinforced that reputation. Elbow inflammation sent Wells to the injured list again in 2024, and after only three starts it was announced he’d have to right elbow UCL surgery. He’d make just four starts in 2025.

Heading into 2026, nobody was quite sure where, or how much, Tyler Wells would pitch. President of baseball operations Mike Elias had said back in the fall that the plan was for Wells to start, but with Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, Chris Bassitt, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer fighting for rotation spots, Wells was far from a lock. And in the end, the big righty opened the season in the bullpen as Baltimore’s top right-handed setup man in front of new closer Ryan Helsley.

In some ways, 2026 was already a success for Wells before the whole closer thing began. Between March 26, his season debut, and July 1, Wells made 30 appearances—he was finally healthy! And, even more happy news, he was good! Wells pitched to a 3.18 ERA in 39.2 innings as a setup man, making the majority of his appearances in the sixth or seventh innings. Then a “break” of sorts: in early July, Helsley felt discomfort warming up against the White Sox and landed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow discomfort. Thankfully, the veteran righty managed to avoid structural UCL damage, but Wells got the call anyway.

Wells has more than delivered in his new high-leverage role: in nine games, he has a 1.93 ERA, and just one run allowed in his last five appearances. He was scoreless in six of seven outings that month. Manager Craig Albernaz has stopped short of naming him the permanent closer, noting that Andrew Kittredge and Yennier Cano remain in the mix and that “everything is on the table.” But for now, the job is Wells’s to lose.

It is a strange but fitting turn for a pitcher whose entire career has been defined by other people’s plans falling apart around him.  Perhaps more than ever, it’s a triumph that Wells has been healthy. Wells is a setup man promoted by his closer’s bad elbow: Baltimore never drew this plan up. But this season he’s been there when his team needs him.

We’ve all seen the latest prospect rankings that cast the Phillies farm system in a rather dim light. We all know that they don’t have much in the way of ammunition to acquire upgrades at this upcoming trade deadline.

But that doesn’t mean they won’t be sending any of their prospects out in a deal over the next week and some change. Dave Dombrowski likely won’t be shopping in the Jhoan Duran tier of the market as he did a year ago, but Dombrowski and the Phillies are certain to be heavily involved in the Harrison Bader tier of the market to put it in 2025 terms. They will likely be targeting rentals which of course come with less cost in prospect capital than players with multiple years of control.

It can’t be ruled out that the likes of Gage Wood or Aidan Miller could be moved, but it feels extremely unlikely, especially in Miller’s case due to injury. Once you get into the Ramon Marquez, Dante Nori, and Aroon Escobar tier of the Phillies system though, it’s extremely likely that at least a couple of players will be moved. Again, there’s not much in the way of trade bait for a big fish, but there’s enough to find moderate upgrades if the opportunity cost is weighed correctly. The Phillies have enough glaring holes that even a mid-tier upgrade could go a long way to increasing their win total and therefore their chances at the division title or the postseason in general.

So, who is the Phillies prospect most likely to be moved at the deadline? Does your prediction align with what you would do if you were in charge of the deadline?

Although lacking the drama of their historical post season battles, the three game series forthcoming on Chicago’s south side holds heightened significance should the Astros hope to remain relevant this baseball season.   

Len Kasper calls games for the White Sox and he joins us exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes to preview the weekend ahead.  

Q: How personally fulfilling has this season been for you after witnessing the rebuild?

A: Super, super fun for Darrin Jackson and me. I recall a few weeks ago when the Sox were like 31-28 and we had the note that 2 years ago they were 31-109 I had to do a double take. I called all of those games and lived it but it still doesn’t seem real. Having said that, this season has really put all those struggles in the rear view mirror. It doesn’t matter anymore. This team is good and the way they play is FUN and we are living in the moment. They play hard, they slug, they claw from behind, they enjoy each other. There is something really special about this group that is hard to quantify, but when you see it, you acknowledge that it matters. Also, our fans adore this team. They love the winning but they love how this team plays just as much.

Q: How huge has a guy like Sean Newcomb been?

A: I think it’s fair to say he’s been the most valuable pitcher on the roster. He has done a little bit of everything which is where the league is now headed — closers, set-up men, etc. are becoming a thing of the past. Pitchers are just out-getters and in Newcomb’s case, you feel comfortable using him in any situation. What a great under-the-radar addition he’s been. One underrated thing about the bullpen is most of the guys are multi-inning options: Newcomb, Taylor, Hudson, Murphy, Richards, et al.

Q: Not to put it on one guy, but if Sean Burke continues the strong outings, you must feel pretty upbeat about the remaining two months of the season, correct?

A: Burke has pitched like an ace over the last several weeks. The stuff has always been there but it has been about strike-throwing and he is now doing that. One walk in his last 3 starts and a ton of strikeouts. I kinda hate the “this guy is a 1, this guy is a 3” conversation, BUT if we are gonna do that, the Sox have been looking for a “1” and right now, it’s Sean Burke. It’s interesting, they opened for him a few times earlier this season and he always pitched really well in that bulk relief role. But I’m guessing he didn’t love it and the best way to not be in that position is to pitch like he has. I wouldn’t expect an opener to be in play for him again for awhile.

Q: Biggest need at the deadline? Will it be another arm or a combination of things best guess?

A: These are questions for Chris Getz, but I just think the “you can never have enough pitching” cliche applies. I trust he will do everything he can to supplement the current roster while not sacrificing the future.

Q: I’m guessing if things stay the course, there will be some awards handed out on the south side for this unexpected season?    

A: If the Sox make the playoffs, they will undoubtedly have the AL Manager of the Year and probably the Executive of the Year. Both would be well deserved. Will Venable has created a great culture here by allowing this group to kind of dictate the vibe. So many managers, even some of the all time greats, loom over all of it and sometimes that can dampen whatever the natural atmosphere might be. And while Will has some things he expects out of his guys and is very clear about those things, he has “stayed out of the way” to a degree in this area and that’s a huge thing here. As a former player, he understands how important it is for the nucleus to set the tone on a daily basis and it has made a very talented team even better. And Getz made a trade for Tristan Peters who came out of nowhere to become an All-Star, and another piece from the Crochet deal, Braden Montgomery, is now the everyday right fielder. Miguel Vargas has had a breakout season. The Murakami signing is looking like one of the best from last winter in the entire league. He has flipped this roster upside down and it’s now super young and on the position player side, one of the best in the entire league.

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (48-50)

SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE 2, SYRACUSE 0 (BOX)

Clay Holmes made his first appearance on a professional mound since breaking his leg, and it was just fine for a first outing. The Syracuse bullpen picked him up after he gave up a couple of runs in his brief start, as Tobias Myers and three other relievers combined to blank the RailRiders the rest of the way. Unfortunately, Syracuse’s bats were blanked for the entirety of the game.

• CF Nick Morabito: 0-3, 2 K
• LF MJ Melendez: 0-4, 3 K
• DH Ronny Mauricio: 1-4, SB
• 1B Christopher Morel: 1-4, 2 K
• RF Ryan Clifford: 0-3, BB
• 3B Eric Wagaman: 1-3, K
• 2B Christian Arroyo: 0-3, K
• C Hayden Senger: 0-3, 2 K
• SS Zack Short: 0-3
• REHAB ALERT: P Clay Holmes: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Tobias Myers: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• P Ben Simon: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• P Jefry Yan: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• P Matt Seelinger: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (34-59)

PORTLAND 3, BINGHAMTON 2 (BOX)

The Rumble Ponies didn’t score until the bottom of the ninth inning, but that late rally came up a run shy of tying things up. R.J. Gordon walked four, but he gave up just two runs—one earned—in five innings and struck out seven. It’s been a bit of an uneven season for him, but it’s nice to see him have a good outing with his season high in strikeouts.

• DH Chris Suero: 0-3, BB, 3 K
• CF John Bay: 1-4, K
• 3B Nick Lorusso: 1-4, 2B, K
• C Kevin Parada: 0-4, 3 K
• 1B JT Schwartz: 3-4, R, K, SB
• RF Matt Rudick: 1-4, 2B, 2 K
• LF Vincent Perozo: 0-3, 2 K
• PH Corey Collins: 1-1, R, HR, 2 RBI
• 2B Jaylen Palmer: 0-3, 3 K
• PH Jose Ramos: 0-1, K
• SS Wyatt Young: 0-3, K
• P R.J. Gordon: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K
• P Justin Armbruester: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Gabriel Rodriguez: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• P Zach Peek: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (37-53)

JERSEY SHORE 6, BROOKLYN 5 /12 (BOX)

The Cyclones nearly had this game won in the ninth inning, but Jersey Shore’s two-run bottom of the ninth sent the game to extras. After neither team scored in the tenth, both teams scored one in the eleventh before Brooklyn was blanked in the twelfth and Jersey Shore scored to walk it off in the bottom of the twelfth. First baseman

Trace Willhoite had himself a night at the plate for Brooklyn with two doubles, a home run, a stolen base, and three runs scored, and startig pitcher Nicolas Carreno had a very nice outing with six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts.

• CF Yonatan Henriquez: 2-5, 3B, RBI, BB
• 2B Mitch Voit: 0-5, BB, 2 K
• C Ronald Hernandez: 0-4, BB, K
• DH Daiverson Gutierrez: 0-5, 2 K
• 3B Jamari Baylor: 0-3, 2 BB, 2 K
• SS Colin Houck: 0-5, R, 4 K
• 1B Trace Willhoite: 3-4, 3 R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB, K, SB, E
• RF Yohairo Cuevas: 0-5, 4 K
• LF Kevin Villavicencio: 1-5, R, HR, RBI, 2 K
• P Nicolas Carreno: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• P Luis R. Rodriguez: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• P Bryce Jenkins: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Juan Arnaud: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• P Rafi Vazquez: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Gregori Louis: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (43-49)

GAME 1: ST. LUCIE 1, FORT MYERS 0 / 7 (BOX)

St. Lucie won the first game of their doubleheader thanks to the fact that their pitchers shut out the Mighty Mussels. Marco Vargas drove in the lone run of the game with an RBI single in the bottom of the third.

• 3B Antonio Jimenez: 1-3
• SS Marco Vargas: 1-2, RBI, BB, K
• CF D’Andre Smith: 1-3, 2 K
• LF Randy Guzman: 1-3, K
• DH Julio Zayas: 0-3
• RF Simon Juan: 2-3
• C Francisco Toledo: 1-3, E
• 2B Jeremy Rodriguez: 1-2, R
• 1B Jack Scanlon: 0-2, K
• P Joel Lara: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
• P Omar Victorino: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Zack Mack: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

GAME 2: FORT MYERS 3, ST. LUCIE 1 (BOX)

Unfortunately, St. Lucie couldn’t complete the doubleheader sweep, as their bats remained pretty quiet and their pitchers didn’t throw a shutout in the second game against Fort Myers.

• SS Elian Peña: 0-4, 2 K
• CF Trey Snyder: 1-3
• DH Randy Guzman: 0-3, K
• C Julio Zayas: 0-3, K
• 2B Branny De Oleo: 0-3, 3 K
• 1B Chase Meggers: 2-3
• RF Simon Juan: 0-3, K
• 3B Taylor Darden: 2-3, R, 3B
• LF Jackson Hauge: 0-2, RBI
• P Joel Díaz: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Elwis Mijares: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Joe Scarborough: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Rookie: FCL Mets (24-32)

FCL CARDINALS 11, FCL METS 3 (BOX)

Well, Jean Brito didn’t have a good night, and neither did Jun-Seok Shim. Those two pitchers combined to give up all eleven runs that the Cardinals scored.

• CF Wyatt Vincent: 0-3, BB
• RF Bohan Adderley: 0-4, K
• 3B Cole Mathis: 0-2, E
• PH Diover De Aza: 0-1, K
• C Yovanny Rodriguez: 1-2, BB
• 1B Roybert Herrera: 0-2, BB
• SS Anthony Frobose: 0-3, K
• 2B Yorber Semprun: 2-3, 2 R, 3B, HR, RBI, K
• LF Heriberto Rincon: 2-3, R, HR, 2 RBI, K, SB
• DH Adolfo Miranda: 1-3, K
• P Roberto Pena: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
• P Julio Gonzalez: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Jean Brito: 3.0 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• P Jun-Seok Shim: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• P Wilmer Lugo: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Rookie: DSL Mets Orange (19-19)

DSL METS ORANGE 9, DSL GIANTS ORANGE 2 (BOX)

• SS Wandy Asigen: 2-3, R, 3B, BB, K, E
• DH Cleiner Ramirez: 1-3, 2 R, HR, RBI, K, SB
• 1B Cesar Acosta: 3-4, 2 R, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, K
• 3B Sebastian Toro: 0-3, R, BB, K
• LF Jhonael Cuello: 2-3, R, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, K
• C Yadier Fuentes: 1-3, R, RBI
• C Jesus Griman: 0-0
• 2B Oscar Pena: 0-2, BB, 2 K
• RF Ryan Rudas: 2-3, R, HR, RBI, K
• CF Aiberson Blanco: 0-2, RBI, K
• P Maxgregori Harvey: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• P Alvaro Carrillo: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Cesar Morales: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Rookie: DSL Mets Blue (14-23)

DSL RANGERS RED 14, DSL METS BLUE 6 (BOX)

• 3B Johnderis Sanchez: 1-5, R, 2B, 3 K
• SS Dayron Oramas: 1-5, K, E
• CF Henry Manrique: 1-3, R, RBI, BB, SB
• C Frank Moreno: 2-3, 2 R, 2B, BB, SB
• LF Royner Bravo: 0-4, 2 K
• 2B Michalle Mercedes: 1-4, R, HR, 3 RBI, 2 K
• 1B Adrian La Rosa: 1-4, K
• DH Jesus Minaya: 1-3, R, BB, K, SB
• RF Elvis Teran: 0-2, 2 BB, K, SB
• P Christopher Rochin: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• P Mauricio Nunez: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K
• P Edgardo Rodriguez: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• P Arnaldo Tejeda: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

STAR OF THE NIGHT

Trace Willhoite

GOATS OF THE NIGHT

Colin Houck and Mitch Voit

The Boston Red Sox find themselves in a fascinating position after a franchise-record-tying 15-game winning streak. 

The entire vibe of the ballpark flipped on its head with real investment in a historic run. Boston went from 37-48 and out of contention to 52-48 and in control of an American League playoff spot. The surge also completely changed the conversation surrounding the trade deadline. The group originally looked like a prime seller with veteran pieces to ship out in Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman. Instead, those players will play meaningful roles in Boston’s mission to make consecutive postseason appearances for the first time in eight years. 

Now in a position to buy, the state of the Red Sox farm system takes on even more importance, as the team must decide what packages could get deals across for impact additions. That reality makes for an interesting few weeks for Red Sox senior director of player development Brian Abraham, who has run the farm system through multiple notable prospect waves in recent seasons. 

With less than two weeks to go until the Aug. 3 deadline, Abraham has a big job to do to keep young players on track. 

“I think the biggest thing for us is just making sure players are continuing to focus on their work, the goals that they have ahead of them and be able to perform on the field during the games and be able to get the work in to get better pregame,” Abraham told me Thursday. “We very much focus on controlling what you can control. That’s not only on the field but off the field as well. So there are going to be conversations that happen internally, there will be rumors, there’ll be media, and I think making sure that we’re not focusing on the noise externally and really focusing on the job that we need to do, that the players need to do at end of the day, is front of mind and that’s the focus.”

“Obviously, there is a part of this game that players and, quite honestly, that a lot of the staff can’t control,” Abraham added. “So making sure we’re taking care of our business and worrying about that and if something happens, we’ll adjust accordingly and have the conversations we need to have.” 

Boston will certainly need to dip into the prospect pool to get a deal done, though a surplus of young, MLB-ready pitching can play a role in negotiations as well. That makes for an unnerving period for young players who know that they could find themselves on the move. Abraham reiterated the commitment of keeping routines and understanding the personnel adjustments that come with this period of the season where high-leverage decisions are made that can spark postseason runs at the big-league level.

“The season is very fluid and you really need to focus on the game that you have that particular night and the same as in the minor leagues,” Abraham explained. “You need to focus on the work that’s being done that particular day. Try to control what you control and you know hopefully you’ll be able to stack wins and put yourself in a better position later in this month and as we get towards the trade deadline. Obviously, there are some decisions that need to be made at certain times that influence what happens to our roster for better or for worse, whether it be bringing guys in or sending guys out one way or another. I think we’ve realized the season is incredibly fluid. At the end of the day, you have to make decisions that are best for the organization in the short term and in the long term. I know, no matter what, the goal is to win a World Series championship every year and I know [Craig Breslow] and the leadership group will do their best to make sure that we’re working toward that goal.” 

One name that would be a significant surprise to be dealt is Boston’s top prospect Franklin Arias. The 20-year-old found unexpected power this season with Double-A Portland where his 19 home runs in 75 games matched his previous career total. Arias slashed .319/.407/.581 with 18 HR and a .987 OPS entering Thursday, a run of offense more than deserving of a bump to Triple-A Worcester. Arias ascended up the rankings this year and MLB Pipeline lists him as baseball’s No. 7 overall prospect. Tommy Cassell of the Worcester Telegram & Gazette first reported Thursday night, later confirmed by MLB.com, that Boston had promoted Arias to Triple-A.

Here’s what Abraham said Thursday morning before the reported promotion.  

“I think there’s definitely conversations pretty often about when the right time to send him up is,” Abraham explained. “There’s not an exact answer when that will be. It will definitely be at some point this season. I would say the consistency has been great. We really asked him to put on some good weight and add some strength so he can impact the baseball more. It’s really his ability to hone in on a swing decision, swing at the right pitches, pitches that he can drive and he’s done an incredible job of that and he’s taken advantage of pitches over the plate and and drove them to all fields quite frankly. Just continue to match the consistency that he’s brought offensively, defensively and on the base paths. He’s incredibly smart. He’s a fast learner. He works his butt off.”

Abraham continued: “Just continuing to stack those days so that when his number is called to come up here he’ll be ready. But pre-game things going on I don’t know if there’s a lot more we need to see, in a lot of ways, which is exciting, but at the same time I think there are smaller pieces that he can always improve again, continuing to hone in on those swing decisions, continue to be more consistent with the bat, impact wise and again, small more intricate things with his footwork and his plate discipline that we’ll continue to focus on.”

Abraham, in his role, can take significant pride in the style of how the Red Sox rattled off an unimaginable winning streak. Given the countless injuries on the roster, headlined by the prolonged absences of stars Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet, Boston heavily relied on the depth contributions from Triple-A with names such as Anthony Seigler and Tsung-Che Cheng to do a job. 

“It’s been a ton of fun to watch. I think we go into spring training every year realizing that the twenty-six guys that leave for Boston to start the season are not gonna be the only twenty-six guys that end up making an impact on the big league roster throughout the season,” Abraham shared. “So whether it be High-A, Double-A, Triple-A, we make sure that our players know their name could be called at any time and being prepared and making sure that when you know (Chad Tracy) and (Craig Breslow) call their name, they’re ready to help make an impact at the big league level. That could be on defense, that could be base running, that could be offensively, on the mound. So there’s so many different ways you can make an impact and make sure our guys are prepared to do so and can help the team in any way to help get a W on the board.” 

The Red Sox have several factors that play into the massive responsibilities that fall on Breslow’s shoulders leading up to the 6:00 p.m. hour on Aug. 3. Abraham’s phone will likely be one of the busiest in the organization in the coming days before a consequential turning point in this tale of two seasons. 

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

Just 10 days remain until the MLB trade deadline, and at this moment, there’s no telling which direction the Orioles are going to go. Two weeks ago they looked like sure sellers, but their recent seven-game winning streak, which currently puts them three games back of the final wild card, might have changed the calculus.

The front office’s trade strategy could well come down to how the Orioles fare in their final three series before the deadline. They’re not going to be easy ones. Two of the Birds’ next three series come against National League clubs that are currently in playoff position, the NL East-leading Braves and the second-place Phillies. The other is against the Tigers, a team that’s basically an even match with the Orioles (just one game worse than the Birds). Two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is slated to start tonight against the Royals, which would line him up to pitch next Wednesday against the Orioles in what could be his last start as a Tiger. So the Orioles’ next week and a half will pit them against two very good teams and perhaps the best pitcher in baseball. Good luck!

The Orioles, at least, are looking more like a team that’s up for such a challenge. They’re playing much better baseball of late, and their pitching in particular has started to gel. Their 2.96 team ERA since the start of July is the second-best in baseball, behind only the Red Sox. Maybe the best indication of how good the O’s pitching has been is that long reliever Albert Suárez hasn’t pitched in more than two weeks. With all due respect to Albert, he’s the guy you bring in when a starter gets chased early or you’re hopelessly out of the game late, so the fact that he hasn’t been needed in so long is a positive thing.

If the Orioles continue playing like they’ve been doing lately, they have every chance to win more than they lose during this upcoming 10-day stretch, which would bring them to the deadline at about the .500 mark and right on the heels of the wild card leaders. If that happens, you have to think the Orioles would be buyers, but perhaps modestly so. They’re not going to get Skubal, but they could add a reliever or two and maybe another bat.

But if the sloppy, fundamentally unsound version of the team rears its ugly head in the next week and a half, and a lot of losses follow, then the O’s could be faced with the unappetizing reality of selling at the deadline. That would be a tough pill to swallow for a second straight year.

The Orioles are plenty capable of playing good baseball, staying in the thick of the postseason chase, and convincing the front office to supplement the roster at the deadline. They’re also, unfortunately, plenty capable of just the opposite. Which path will the O’s take? That’s the million dollar question.

Links

Orioles Claim Yohel Pozo, Designate Johnathan Rodríguez For Assignment – MLB Trade Rumors

If you’re tired of watching Sam Huff bat, don’t worry: the Orioles have acquired a catcher who’s even worse than him.

Updated MLB top 70 prospects: Kade Anderson is the new No. 1, Jesús Made at No. 2 – The Athletic

Two O’s prospects, Ike Irish and Joseph Dzierwa, crack Keith Law’s midseason top prospect update. And JT Quinn gets a very intriguing shout-out in the Dzierwa writeup, so I’m gonna count that as a third.

How Yelling “O!” During the National Anthem Became a Statement of Baltimore Pride – Baltimore Magazine

I had never heard this story before. It’s fascinating to find out that such an iconic Baltimore tradition basically started because of a fan’s inside joke with her friends.

Are Orioles’ injuries preventable? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

A reader wants the Orioles to simply put together a team of players who won’t get injured. Buddy, what you’re asking for is a team of indestructible cyborgs, which…actually, yeah, that sounds pretty nice. Make it happen, Mike Elias.

Tommy Hunter happy to celebrate friend Chris Davis at Orioles Hall of Fame festivities – School of Roch

I still have mixed feelings about Davis being elected into the Orioles Hall of Fame so soon after his disastrous end to his career. It sounds like Tommy Hunter is going to give a pretty awesome speech, though.

Gunnar Henderson’s strong offensive series in Boston was fueled by ‘trying less, to be honest’ – The Baltimore Banner

I try less than almost anybody. Maybe I can be a professional baseball player after all.

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Only two players in O’s history had a July 24 birthday, and they were born 64 years apart. Right-hander Miguel Socolovich (40) pitched six games for the 2012 Birds, and righty Duane Pillette (b. 1922, d. 2011) was a member of the inaugural 1954 Orioles, coming over with the franchise from St. Louis.

On this date in 2018, the Orioles traded their two-time All-Star closer, Zack Britton, to the Yankees for three prospects. It was a foregone conclusion that the last-place Birds would deal Britton, a pending free agent, but that didn’t make it any easier to swallow that he went to the Orioles’ most hated rival, where he spent the remaining five years of his career. The three players the O’s acquired didn’t amount to much, aside from one decent relief season by Dillon Tate.

Random Orioles game of the day

On July 24, 2004, the Orioles defeated the first-place Twins at Camden Yards, 4-2. The Orioles were trailing 2-0 at one point, but scored a single run apiece in the third, sixth, seventh, and eighth to earn the victory. Miguel Tejada provided nearly all the offense by himself, not only driving in two runs on a solo homer and an RBI double, but also scoring from first base on a strikeout (thanks to a throwing error by the catcher on a stolen base attempt). O’s starter Sidney Ponson worked seven innings of two-run ball, and B.J. Ryan and Jorge Julio each worked a perfect inning of relief.

Last weekend, the Phillies hosted some guests from New York. This weekend, they’re hosting some more guests from New York. But the pinstriped ones, this time. As everyone knows, Philadelphia and New York have a longstanding mutual fondness for each other, so surely it’ll be a happy reunion, buoyed by fond memories of 2009 (and 1950).

On to the links.

Phillies news:

Zack Wheeler is thinking about sticking around.

Alex McFarlane had a pretty tall task in his MLB debut. ($)

The trade deadline is coming up, and it’s time to start thinking about what the Phillies might do.

MLB news

MLB.com presents the trade deadline strategies for each team.

Hitter power rankings!

Everyone loves trade deadline rumors! Well, probably not the players involved. And one imagines that it’s a very stressful time for team staff, too. So not everyone. But if you do love trade deadline rumors, this link is for you!

Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. We’re now a week into the second half, and the Brewers got out to a strong start with a sweep of the Marlins and a series win against the Mets, extending their NL Central lead as we’re approaching the two-thirds mark on the season. They’ll welcome the Rockies to town this weekend (and host the Brewer Alumni Legends Game on Friday night) before hitting the road for visits to the Giants and Angels beginning Monday.

Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.

You know the drill.

This is now an open thread:

Free of charge for the discerning reader.

Happy birthday to Miguel Socolovich, and a mighty host of others.

Today in baseball history, in 1983 – In the memorable “Pine Tar Game” at Yankee Stadium, George Brett hits an apparent two-run home run off Rich Gossage to give the Kansas City Royals a 5-4 lead with two outs in the 9th inning, only to have the homer taken away when Yankees manager Billy Martin, at the urging of coach Don Zimmer, points out that the pine tar on Brett’s bat handle exceeds the 17 inches allowed in the rules. As a result, Brett is called out for illegally batting the ball, giving New York a 4-3 victory. Brett goes ballistic and the Royals immediately protest. American League President Lee MacPhail overrules his umpires for the first time, saying that the umpire’s call went against the spirit of the rule, which should be rewritten and clarified, and that the home run will stand. The game will be resumed from that point on August 18th, and other stories as well.

Today in baseball history:

• 1926 – Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth demonstrate that power hitting is not the only thing they can do when Lou scores on a double steal with the Babe in a victory over the White Sox. 
• 1938 – 44-year-old Babe Ruth, roughly three years into his retirement and currently first base coach for the Brooklyn Dodgers, launches one 430 feet out of Sportsman’s Park to win the $50 grand prize in a pre-game distance-hitting contest featuring an otherwise active pool of contestants including Cardinals Joe Medwick (the runner-up at 425 feet), Johnny Mize and Don Padgett, as well as Brooklyn’s Dolph Camilli and Ernie Koy.
• 1966 – The Yankees beat the Angels, 9-1, in the first game of a doubleheader, and Mickey Mantle hits his second homer in two days. The round-tripper, his 493rd, ties him with Lou Gehrig for sixth place on the all-time list.
• 1968 – Hoyt Wilhelm‘s 907th game breaks Cy Young‘s record for major league pitching appearances, but he loses a 2-1 decision to Oakland.
• 1969 – At Wrigley Field, Ken Holtzman tops Don Sutton for the fourth straight time – three this year – as Chicago beats the Dodgers, 5-3. For a frustrated Sutton, it is a record 13th straight loss to Chicago stretching back to his rookie year.
• 1970 – For the fourth time in his career, Billy Williams has the only hit(s) for the Cubs, as he connects safely twice against the Braves’ Phil Niekro. Each time previously, Williams also had multiple-hit games to spoil no-hitters. Niekro coasts to a 9-0 victory over Fergie Jenkins.
• 1978 – Pete Rose singles twice, the first time off Pat Zachry, during the Reds’ 5-3 win over the Mets, extending his hitting streak to 37 games to tie the modern National League record held by Tommy Holmes. 
• 1979 – Going deep off A’s hurler Mike Morgan at Fenway Park, Red Sox first baseman Carl Yastrzemski becomes the 18th major leaguer and seventh in the American League to hit 400 home runs.
• 2012 – The Yanks make history by becoming the first team since the 1927 Athletics to have three players with 2,500+ career hits in the starting lineup. New York uses Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and the newly-acquired Ichiro Suzuki to pull that off.

Cubs Birthdays:Miguel Socolovich*, Jason Smith, Mike Adams, Preston Ward, Joe Schultz. Also notable: Tommy McCarthy HOF.

Today in history:

• 1758 – George Washington is elected to the Virginia House of Burgesses, representing Frederick County.
• 1911 – American explorer Hiram Bingham rediscovers Machu Picchu, the Lost City of the Incas.
• 1948 – Marvin the Martian, Warner Bros. cartoon character created by Chuck Jones and Michael Maltese (Looney Tunes and Merrie Melodies series), first debuts in “Haredevil Hare.”
• 1969 – At 12:51 EDT, Apollo 11 returns to Earth after taking the first astronauts to the Moon and returning them safely.
• 2022 – Singer-songwriter icon Joni Mitchell makes a surprise concert appearance, joining Brandi Carlile at Newport Folk Festival in Mitchell’s first public performance in 19 years.

*pictured.

PHILADELPHIA — Every single team in baseball with a winning record, and even those hovering close to .500, say they plan to be aggressive at the trade deadline.

They want their fans to believe it. They want their players to believe it. They even are trying to convince themselves to believe it.

If they don’t get the pieces they want by Aug. 3, they can at least shout to the world they tried.

But let’s be realistic.

Does anyone really believe the Chicago White Sox, who are playing with house money, will be as aggressive as the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Are the Pittsburgh Pirates really more desperate than the New York Yankees to land closer Mason Miller?

Will the Milwaukee Brewers, who already have a fat seven-game lead in the NL Central, cough up two of their top prospects for two months of Tarik Skubal, if the Detroit Tigers trade him?

If you listen to GMs and executives throughout baseball, they believe the Tigers’ front office wants to trade Skubal with the uncertainty of the value of that draft pick in the next collective bargaining agreement. They could acquire a back-end starter and another prized piece for the future, while trying to convince their fanbase and players that they aren’t really surrendering.

Then again, if they trade Skubal, why stop there? Might as well dump pending free-agent starter Casey Mize, too.

In an informal survey of executives and scouts, here are the top five teams expected to be most aggressive at the Aug. 3 deadline:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Yes, they already won two World Series championships.

Yes, they have no glaring holes, they’re running away with the NL West, and will have closer Edwin Diaz back in a few days, two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and four-time MVP Shohei Ohtani back on the mound in a few weeks, and All-Star catcher Will Smith by the end of the season.

So, what’s the urgency?

Well, rival executives believe the Dodgers plan to be greedy, and are infatuated with the opportunity of becoming the first National League team to win three consecutive World Series championships.

If Tarik Skubal indeed becomes available, as executives are now predicting, the Dodgers are all in, and have the prized farm system and starting pitching depth to pull it off. They have nine players in MLB’s Pipeline’s Top 100 List.

They may not really need Skubal, but it sure beats facing him in the postseason.

Besides, if they grab Skubal now, they can help him house-hunt early before signing him as a free agent this winter.

In what is becoming an annual habit, the St. Louis Cardinals are back-sliding going into and coming out of the All-Star break. Some view it as natural regression for a team that over-achieved in the first half of the season. As we approach the two-thirds point of the season, lack of depth gets exposed. Regression can be harsh that way, no?

Of course, the obvious approaching point is the trade deadline, which will be a mere 10 days away when you read this article. I’m not going to try to predict what will happen there or advocate for buy or sell or both. Today I’m going to try and peek under the covers at the key drivers that will guide Cardinal decision makers not only as they approach the trade deadline, but in decisions to be made in the final third of the season.

There are numerous advocates for the Cardinals to add talent for the 2026 stretch run. They are certainly positioned to compete (mathematically, anyway) and there is merit to the argument that you never know when you might be back in this position again. Next year is a long way away and a lot can go wrong, given time.

Others advocate for a more “stay the course” approach. Continue to treat 2026 as a rebuild year and continue to add more for the future, even potentially at the expense of the now. A good plan should be followed, right?

Other articles are out on VEB proposing who are candidates to be moved and discussing the pros and cons of each potential move. Interesting fodder, for which I don’t have any more names to add, but do have some sense that we might be surprised a bit. What might management be considering and what might we learn from the actions they take?

One thing that seems certain is that the Cardinals have likely narrowed down their question marks on the position player side from where they were last year at this time. In this runway year, some youngsters have emerged and some have not and a few idle.

Last year at this time, the whole outfield was a mess. Now, it seems like the problem area has really narrowed to CF (what is Nathan Church, exactly?). Do you think management would agree with this view? That said, a key outfield question revolves around Joshua Baez and where they see his development. If they think he is ready now, it seems like a Nootbaar trade at the deadline might be an action they take. If they think he needs more time, then maybe not so fast on breaking Noots lease on Arenado’s home. They have control for all of next year if they want. Seems to me that how they handle Nootbaar will tell us much about how they view Baez’ future.

Likewise, at this time last year the key question was wither Wetherholt? I’d propose that question has been answered emphatically, with the exclamation point added with that 8-year contract extension. If one wondered how they could improve the 2B position from Donovan, the answer is clear. Winn, Wetherholt and Burleson seems like a pretty solid group. Does management hold this view? It strikes me that the key question on the infield is … what do they do with third base?

Interestingly, the catcher position, for all the reputed depth that exists, is probably the most murky position right now and remains largely unchanged since this time last year. Pozo is now off the roster, but that wasn’t hard to see coming, nor was it a strategic move. Where do they go from here? Perhaps the trade deadline will bring more clarity, but this might be something that evolves through the end of the season. At some point, doesn’t Crooks need to start impressing? Maybe he is just pressing.

On the pitching side, the starting rotation has provided some surprising stability. Not necessarily the quality they need to form a contending team, but surprisingly closer than many of us would have thought coming in. As discussed in earlier articles, there is depth and some intriguing tools in the minors, but the stat lines suggest that the higher-end talent is still a bit away from MLB ready. Does management hold this view? In ways, it seems easier to envision the 2028 or 2029 rotations than the 2027 rotation. Odd in a way.

If you follow that line of thinking, one could wonder if management sees an asymmetry between the timeline of the position player core and the pitching core. If one sees an emergence of supreme pitching talent 2028 and beyond, one might recognize that some of the position player core will be nearing the end of their control years. Their actions at the trade deadline might help us understand their views on this, as well as their actions on the contract extension front.

Then there is the bullpen. Bullpens are primarily rebuilt in the off-season and get more attention when a team is ready to contend, when teams can assemble a puzzle from multiple available pieces. The current Cardinal bullpen certainly needs rebuilt, yes? There isn’t one or two deadline pieces that could fix this mess, in my view. If the Cardinals did that, it would tell me they have a very different view of things. My personal expectation is that soon, maybe not by August 3, but soon, is that we may start to see some starters migrating toward bullpen roles as a more long-term fix. What/who the Cardinals acquire (or trade away) at the deadline could tell us much about how they view this.

In the way issues have a tendency to inter-connect, I wonder how much management views the current starting pitching alignment as exposing the bullpen. I was reading a Brewer article yesterday bemoaning how it had been weeks since a starter got an out in the 8th inning and how much that exposed the bullpen. I think the Cardinals starters have gotten an out in the 8th maybe twice all season, and thought we’d be excited to see a starter get an out in the 7th. Boy, it is funny how perspectives can be so different. I wondered how much improvement in the rotation would actually help the bullpen and if management views this or is more inclined to think that 5-and-dive is the nominal strategy for starting now and deepening the reliever corps is the right direction.

Then there is the bench depth of this team. As they narrow down the main areas of concern (CF, 3B, C), one thing that has emerged this year is that the role players don’t fit very well, in the sense that they seem to not fill the obvious holes very well. My short-hand for describing this is that the role players they have are not great hitters and also not very good defenders (nor apparently are they particularly good base runners). These roles are necessary, because there are always situations where a mainstay needs a day off or a distinct platoon disadvantage arises or a pinch runner would be handy, but when the current set gets inserted, the games become clogged with poor quality PAs, extra K’s, missed fly balls, pick offs, plays not made. The result is a normally crisp team that competes every AB loses its margin for error and the play quality erodes noticeably. How does management fix this? More than proposing a deadline trade, I’m looking to see their actions to understand their view and their strategy. Might they seek to build this out with young talent or bring in vets of the type that are everyday players on 2nd-tier teams but better suited as role players on playoff-teams? Or, maybe like the bullpen, they will wait to fix this problem until all the main holes are plugged. Ergo, I see their aggressiveness in this area being a barometer of how close they think they are to contending. That they really didn’t do much with the bullpen last off-season told us a lot about how they viewed their chances at contending and by extension, how poor they saw the odds were meant little was to be invested. How much they do about the bench in the next couple months will tell use how they view 2027.

The last area of analysis is the plethora of struggling, young vets at AAA. Gorman, Scott II, Saggese, Prieto, Fernandez. All these guys occupy 40-man spots and 28-man spots on the AAA active roster. Blocking can happen at all levels. How do they view their future? I suspect the results at AAA the last couple months are not eliminating any misgivings they might have. We are all aware they don’t like giving up on guys and I’m OK with that, but the road does end at some point. It’s an uncomfortable part of this business and gets avoided in the same way we don’t like to contemplate or discuss our own mortality. But it is there and needs addressed. Likewise, and perhaps more concerning, there isn’t a lot of talent exploding up the pipeline threatening to push them off the 40-man. There is a bit of a double-edged sword here. Do they move on and bring in new pieces or …? Is now the point they start re-populating the position player side of the pipeline, similar to how they rebuilt the pitching over the last year? The 2026 Draft seemed a step in that direction. Theoretically, they could wait it out another year or two. But what would that tell us about the competitive timeline and how might that worsen the asymmetry between pitcher and position player groups?

From what I can gather, it is questions like this (and the underlying internal analysis they’ve done on this) that will guide how they will proceed this deadline and throughout the last third of the season, more so than an observation that they could use another leverage arm in the bullpen (which they could, but…). Their actions, choices and direction taken over the next weeks should help reveal more of the plan (and their expected timeline).

After a day off, the Yankees head down to Philadelphia. It’s almost exactly two years since New York’s last trip to Philly, and that one was a doozy. The Yankees swept a three-game set with the Phillies which featured a blowout in Game 1 and thrillers in both Game 2 and 3. The Yankees won the second game in extra-innings in what was one of the more bizarre and exciting contests of the season, and the last game featured a grand slam from DJ LeMahieu of all people:

The series was also Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s breakout party with the Yankees, with the recently acquired infielder smashing four homers in the first two games. Let’s hope for something similar this time around!

Matt will get you prepped for the matchup in Philly with our series preview, while Madison will keep you covered on anything you might have missed on Thursday. We’ll also get a interesting trade target from Nick, who looks at Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta. Later, our Yankees Birthday series continues with Sam’s profile of Joe Oliver, and Madison delivers the answers to this week’s mailbag.

Today’s Matchup:

New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

Time: 6:45 p.m. EST

TV: Apple TV

Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Questions/Prompts:

1. What did you think of the Yankees using Will Warren in the ninth inning on Wednesday night?

2. As we head to Philly, who do you think is the favorite in the NL East?

Toledo Mud Hens 13, Louisville Bats 3 (box)

Max Clark and Brett Callahan posted three hit games as the Hens crushed Bats pitching all game long to win quite comfortably on a bullpen day.

Callahan led off the second with a line drive double to right. New veteran backup catcher Carlos Pérez, signed as Tomas Nido’s replacement, struck out, and Cal Stevenson flew out, but Andrew Navigato came through with an RBI single for a 1-0 lead. Max Anderson scored from third on an Eduardo Valencia double play ball in the third.

Jack Little gave the Hens two scoreless frames to start this off. Dariel Fregio allowed a run in the fourth, and Andre Granillo, another recent Tigers pickup, surrendered two in the fifth as the Bats took a 3-2 lead.

It was all Mud Hens from there.

In the bottom of the sixth, Stevenson singled, and after Navigato struck out, Max Clark and Jace Jung singled to score the run. A wild pitch plated Clark for a 4-3 lead.

Burch Smith made a rehab appearance in the seventh, and hurt himself after throwing two pitches. Tyler Mattison had to take over and he did a nice job pitching around a one-out single. Mattison has allowed runs in only one appearance since May. The problem is that he melted down and was charged with six earned runs in that one game. Otherwise, he’s got 13 scoreless apperances out of his last 14, but he continues to issue way too many walks.

Callahan singled with two outs in the seventh, and Carlos Pérez drew a walk. Stevenson then smoked a middle-middle fastball for a three-run homer to right field. 7-3 Hens.

Clark’s third hit of the day was a single to lead off the bottom of the eighth, and Jung followed with a single of his own. Max Anderson struck out, but Gage Workman singled to score both runners and take second on an error on the play. Singles from Valencia and Callahan followed, and then the new guy, Mr. Pérez, introduced himself with a three-run shot to left field to cap the scoring.

Callahan: 3-5, 3 R, RBI, 2B, 2 K

Clark: 3-4, 2 R, BB, K, SB

Perez: 1-3, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR, 2 BB, K

Stevenson: 3-5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR, K

Mattison: 2.0 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a 7:05 p.m. ET start on Friday night.

Erie SeaWolves 8, Chesapeake Baysox 7 (box)

The SeaWolves got a win in this series after the two teams traded blows for nine innings, with the SeaWolves just barely surviving a scary bottom of the ninth to hold on.

Kenny Serwa gave up two in the bottom of the first, but settled in for four scoreless afterwards.

With one out in the top of the third, Seth Stephenson singled. Peyton Graham flew out, but Justice Bignie and Andrew Jenkins singled, scoring Stephenson, with Bigbie stretching his franchise record hit streak to 22 games. Garrett Pennington then crushed a three-run jack to take a 4-2 lead.

In the top of the fifth, Graham led off with a single and then stole second and third to reach 53 stolen bases on the year. Bigbie singled him home, and Jenkins walked. An EJ Exposito single made it 6-2 SeaWolves.

Colin Fields, back from the injured list, allowed two runs in the bottom of the sixth. Yoniel Curet gave up a run in the eighth to make it 6-5 SeaWolves.

In the top of the ninth, the SeaWolves finally looked to have put this one away. Stephenson led off by reaching on an error and then stole second. Graham singled him to third. A lineout from Bigbie was followed by an attempt to back pick Graham at first that went awry, and Stephenson scored while Graham took third. A fly ball from Jenkins worked as a sacrifice to score Graham.

So it was 8-5, and they appeared to have it in the bag. Instead, Eric Silva walked the leadoff man and then gave up a two-run shot to Frederick Benco. Silva then gave up a single and a walk and the Peorians were going nuts.

Fortunately, a sacrifice bunt was then attempted and Bennett Lee pounced on it and threw out the lead runner. Silva struck out the next hitter and popped out the next to survive and pick up the save.

Graham: 2-5, 2 R, K, 2 SB

Bigbie: 3-5, 2 R, RBI, K

Pennington: 1-5, R, 3 RBI, HR

Serwa (W, 5-7): 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K

Coming Up Next: First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday night.

Peoria Chiefs 1, West Michigan Whitecaps 0 (box)

Whitecaps pitching was great in this one, but so was the Chiefs’ pitching, and they walked this off with the only run of the game to take their third straight over West Michigan.

Lucas Elissalt continues his recent good run after struggling early this year. He fired five innings of one-hit ball with five strikeouts in this one. Zack Lee gave them two perfect innings. Eliseo Mota handled the eighth, but couldn’t avoid giving up a run in the bottom of the ninth.

Bryce Rainer had the day off.

Santana: 2-3, BB, K

Elissalt: 5.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, BB, 5 K

Coming Up Next: It’s an 8:05 p.m. ET start on Friday.

Lakeland Flying Tigers 5, Jupiter Hammerheads 3 (box)

Cale Wetwiska was back on the bump with another good short outing as he ramps up his workload, and the Flying Tigers cranked three home runs, including a second straight walkoff winner from Edian Espinal, to win on Thursday.

Wetwiska’s velocity wasn’t peak but he was 95-96 mph throughout his three no-hit innings of work, issuing one walk and striking out four.

Carson Rucker opened the scoring with a solo shot, his 10th home run of the season, to start the bottom of the second inning. Andrew Pogue succeeded Wetwiska but allowed a run to Jupiter in the top of the fourth. In the bottom half, Hunter Dobbins hit his sixth homer of the season to make it 2-1 Lakeland.

Antonio Florida took over for Lakeland in the sixth and was wild. He hit a batter and walked the next, eventually surrendering two runs that made it 3-2 Hammerheads.

In the bottom of the seventh, Jack Goodman was hit by a pitch to start the inning. Nick Dumesnil walked with one out, and a successful challenge from Espinal drew a walk as well, loading the bases. Goodman scored on a a Rucker ground out to tie the game, but that was all they’d get.

Win Scott cleaned up the sixth for Florida and spun a scoreless seventh. Donye Evans took it from there and was pretty good, allowing two hits without a walk in two innings of work, while striking out three.

With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Dumesnil reached on an error. Espinal jumped on a 2-1 slider on the inner edge and cranked it to right to put this one to bed with a walkoff homer.

Espinal: 1-3, R, 2 RBI, HR, 2 BB

Dobbins: 2-4, R, RBI HR, 2 K

Dumesnil: 1-3, R, 2B, 2 BB, K, SB

Wetwiska: 3.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: The Flying Tigers lead this home set 3-0, and they’ll look to secure a series victory at 6:30 p.m. ET on Friday.

FCL Tigers 5, FCL Yankees 3 (box)

The FCL Tigers closed out their Complex League season with a win over the Yankees fueled by good pitching. Jack Bushell gave them a scoreless frame to start off in a rehab appearance. Alemain Cruz gave up two runs in four inning of work but did punch out four to just one walk. Maddox Long then collected eight outs, allowing just one hit and a walk while striking out five.

Gabriel Rosado led the offense with a pair of knocks, two runs scored, an RBI, and a walk drawn. Steven Madero and Angel De Los Santos were involved as well, while outfielder Roberto Campos drew a pair of walks in a rehab appearance. He should be back in Erie next week.

Rosado: 2-3, 2 R, RBI, 2B, BB, K

De Los Santos: 0-3, R, RBI, BB

Madero: 1-3, RBI, BB

Cruz (4-1): 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, BB, 4 K