The Twins signed their first multi-year free agent contract since Carlos Correa (yes, it’s been that long) by adding catcher Victor Caratini to their roster. Ben Jones has more on the signing.
The Past Week on Twinkie Town:
Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
Matt Monitto is keeping track of the new jersey numbers on the Twins roster.
Zach Koenig has a new theme song for the Twins ownership group.
We’re around to Round 13 in Zach Koenig’s list of the definitive moments in Twins history.
Elsewhere in Twins Territory:
Former Twin Ryan Pressly announced his retirement. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Twins have hired Pressly to work with the team. According to Declan Goff of SKOR North, he will work with pitchers in both the majors and minors and will also be with the team during spring training.
The Twins finalized their 2026 international signee class. Jesse Borek at MLB.com has a deeper look at a few of the notable signings.
In the World of Baseball:
Two major dominos fell in free agency this past week:
Kyle Tucker will be signing a four-year, $240 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sonja Chen at MLB.com has more on the signing.
Bo Bichette is signing with the New York Mets for three years and $126 million. Manny Randhawa and Mark Bowman at MLB.com have more details on the move to Queens for the shortstop.
Hall of Fame voting results will be announced tonight. Brian Murphy at MLB.com looks at the likely candidates to join Jeff Kent in Cooperstown this year.
All baseball thought experiments coming from know-nothings outside of the organizations (like me) suffer from a lack of information. Trade daydreams or hot-stove free agent woolgatherings are limited to public information, certainly missing relevant details such as unofficial or non-public budget constraints, internal evaluations of prospects, culture concerns or planned transactions that would make the well-thought out idea a non-starter for either side.
So, let me start this thought experiment by saying, no, Randy Arozarena will certainly not be the Mariner’s first full-time designated hitter since the Boomstick terrorized the AL West (and Kendrys Morales before him). But, in a frictionless closed-system hypothetical, I think it might not be such a terrible idea. I think it could work.
The role of the designated hitter has changed pretty notably over the last decade or so. OUT are the David Ortizs and the Nelson Cruzs of the world, veritable sluggers who make the most of their five minutes of on-field time – IN is the “using the DH as a rotating half-rest day for your fielders and otherwise you’re using it for your next best hitter” Era, aka the Dominic Canzone/Ryan Bliss/Leo Rivas as DH Era.
There’s a lot of reasons for this change in philosophy. Part of it is the post-Moneyball $/WARification of the sport, the compulsive need by ownership groups to squeeze every ounce of Efficiency that they can out of their virtuously hard-earned and sadly-spent dollars. Why spend $35 million for 3.0 WAR from a player when you could instead get 1.5 WAR for only $15 million and save $20 million instead? And designated hitters produce less value, overall, by way of their lack of any defensive production, even when they are above-average hitters. But – get this – they used to get large contracts that didn’t account for this. They had been overvalued! Can you imagine?! Hiss!!
Instead of dedicating that position to a player who doesn’t provide you with other value, teams have mostly been using that spot as a method of volume management. If you could use it as a day for players like Cal, Julio, Randy etc. to get off their feet and hopefully keep them fresher for the marathon that is the MLB season, that’s a win in and of itself, even if it means you’re putting a replacement level player there on other days, and not maximizing your offensive production. This led to the discovery of the now-well-documented and oft-discussed “DH penalty”, the phenomenon that when players appear as the DH, they underperform their non-DH appearances by about 14 points of wOBA, or six runs over a full season. Now there’s even less incentive to slot someone in as the everyday DH, if they are likely to underperform anyways.
If you’re interested in reading very good baseball writing, I’d highly recommend this fantastic article that explores this topic by Hannah Keyser at The Ringer. One of the most interesting bits from this piece, though, is that in 2024, research by Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton showed that the DH penalty disappears for players who take more than 75% of their at-bats as a designated hitter. It really only exists in the now-common time-share situations.
If you have a player who excels at the plate, but is passable in the field, it appears that you can use them as your DH most of the year, penalty-free, and still have them as a defensive option when other players do need a rest day.
This, of course, all leads us back to Randy Arozarena: Designated Hitter.
2025 Randy was, by overall contribution, a net positive in the batters box, though he can easily be split into Good and Bad. He hit the ball hard (90th percentile in hard-hit rate at 50.6%!), but not particularly often (30% whiff rate! 27% strikeout rate!). When he actually got wood on the ball, he tended to barrel it up, but left a lot of potential production on the table – he swung at less pitches in the zone than league average (62.6% vs 67%), and made less contact than league average when he did swing (75.9% vs 82.7%).
His batting value, overall, was in the 67th percentile last year – above-average, but lower than any year since 2021, his first full season in the league. It was a down year for what you’d expect from him.
Similarly, his overall baserunning value (0 total runs added, 42nd percentile in the league) looks rather pedestrian, but is, under the hood, buckwild: he was the 11th best basestealer in the league! Randy added 17 total net bases added above average. That’s worth about 3 runs over the season. Good!
Randy also managed to be the 6th worst (or, 308th best) in the other category that composes the bulk of baserunning value, extra bases taken. He was thrown out about 10% of the time that he tried to take an extra base, despite taking less attempts at that extra base than Savant calculates he should have. That 90% success rate is the 8th worst in the league, putting him below Cal, Eugenio, Keiburt Ruiz…but at least, mercifully, ahead of Alejandro Kirk. Barely. Bad!
Defensively, he continued to be the below-average outfielder that he has been steadily declining towards since his career started.
It does not spark joy.
What to make of all this? Despite the eye telling me that Randy is an exciting, dynamic player who Makes Stuff Happen, owner of the rare, electric power-speed combo, everything else tells me he’s actually far more of a Three True Outcomes guy. Among qualified batters last year, his TTO% (percentage of at-bats that end in a walk, strikeout, or home run) was 27th at 39.8%, vs a 33.7% league average. If you’re curious, there were only two Mariners ahead of him, both likely guessable: Cal was 4th in the league at 48.9% and Eugenio was 11th at 44.3.
I dunno. An TTO-type corner outfielder in his 30s who ain’t corner outfielding so good? Maybe even has had a couple relatively down years at the plate, and could use a little boost at the plate? Smells like DH material to me.
We don’t even need to look too far from home for a somewhat plausible comparison.
sits down in backwards-facing chair, youth pastorily You know who else was a terrible defensive player for the Mariners in a contract year?
Jorge Polanco was a stalwart for the Twins since his full-time debut in 2016, making his money as a reliable hitter (and certainly not as the pretty terrible infielder he has been since the start). His production at the plate, though, had been on a slow decline for years before cratering in his first season with Seattle in 2024, when he played through the knee injury for more or less the entire year. His wRC+ had declined year-over-year from 2021 at 124 to 118, 116, 92.
After being re-signed by Seattle before 2025 to play third base, Polanco ended up spending most of his time at DH last season (89 appearances at DH vs 43 defensive appearances). This was likely a decision made to protect his off-season patellar tendon repair after some early season soreness lingered in his knee. And boy, oh boy, did it work some wonders for him, both on the field and in the pocketbook – he hit for a 132 wRC+ last year and signed a $40mm/2 years contract with the Mets to DH and play some first base this offseason.
It’s a common thread for injury to spark the move to DH. Keyser’s article includes interviews with a few former star outfielders who recently have made the transition from playing the field regularly to full-time DHing: Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, to name a few. All three had serious injuries that precipitated the move.
This wouldn’t be the case for Randy, who is presumably healthy enough to keep playing in the outfield, quality of that play aside. But for a player who is now on the wrong side of 30 (typically the beginning of the decline on the aging curve) and more likely to suffer injuries, a proactive move to a position with less wear and tear on his body could help to keep him as available as he was last year, when he appeared in 160 games. If it allows him to focus his energy on the aspects of the game where he does and can bring value, even better.
While players don’t often become better hitters when they transition to DH, part of that is selection bias – most players are already on the wrong side of their aging curve when they make that transition. The better question is whether the move lessens the drop-off in their offensive production.
This is, unfortunately, an area where the research falls thin. If I didn’t have a full-time job? You can safely bet I’d spend several days drowning in data and trying to see whether a move to DH flattens aging curves re: offensive production. I am sad to say that I do not live this ideal life.
All this to say: Randy is looking more and more like a DH-type of fella. It would be worth seriously considering replacing him in the field if you had someone (or someones) who could provide league-average defense, and maybe even league-average offense. Ideally, this would help Randy to return to being the great hitter he was before, but even if it helps him to maintain his level of production from last year, that would be a win.
This, though, is where my original plan for this article fell apart at the seams and where I stayed up hours later than I ought to have – it’s the Raley and Refsnyder of it all.
I tried so hard to make Randy Arozarena, Designated Hitter work. I really did. I tried Harrison Bader, Mariners Starting Left Fielder, but it turns out that 2025 Bader was a fraudulent BABIP merchant. I tried Jarren Duran for Ryan Sloan + Michael Arroyo + Lottery Tickets. This was too complicated and I got too sleepy to explore it fully, plus I’m not great at trade proposals. I tried Stanton Spends $180mm Over Six Years on Cody Bellinger. This only works in an imagination that ignores the evidence that Seattle’s ownership and, to some lesser degree, management, is much more preoccupied with maximizing $/wins, as opposed to, well, wins. This far exceeded even my own typically-unbound silliness.
“Let’s make this work.” This sentence tormented my poor Google Doc. I couldn’t even sort of make it work in any meaningful way. Because, as it turns out, for all of the reasons why Randy Arozarena, Designated Hitter might not work (including that, in a contract year, there’s almost no way that he would willingly depress his own value and earning power), the main reason that it can’t work is that the organization has not built enough depth and production in the outfield to sustain it, nor are they likely pursue it.
Maybe it’s best to say that, in a healthier organization, with the appetite to spend more money in order to win more games than other teams, Randy could safely make this move to designated hitter. A franchise dissatisfied with giving regular at-bats to, for instance, Mitch Garver, Dominic Canzone and Donovan Solano could make it work. They could pursue the options necessary to let Arozarena play this position where he might provide the most production to the team without it also meaning that replacement-level players are patrolling the outfield grass.
This is all without mentioning how rocky the major league depth chart is in the other corner, or how thin and distant the farm is. With this year being Randy’s last year of his rookie deal and Seattle unlikely to re-sign him, the outfield in 2027 and onward is looking grim.
If you read this and feel that this all seems outside the scope of a 40-in-40, you’re probably right. But as I read and thought more about Randy Arozarena, the more I feel that DH Randy could be the best version of him in 2026, and maybe onward. A version of him that I am compelled by, drawn to, yet one I’ll never see. A version of him that is less about the literal position he plays, and more about what he represents. DH Randy is a lovely, haunting specter from another timeline, singing promises, floating just out of reach.
If the Mariners continue to get reliable availability, above-average production at the plate, and not any worse defense than we’ve seen in years past from Arozarena…well, that would obviously be no great disaster. It’s a lot better than we’ve seen in left field for most of the last twenty years! But it’s hard not to want more, and to feel that a truly championship-caliber team would see a lot less of Left Field Randy and a lot more of DH Randy.
Frank Schwindel replaced Anthony Rizzo at first base after the big selloff in 2021, and actually hit pretty well: .342/.389/.613 with 13 home runs in 56 games, enough to get him some downballot Rookie of the Year votes.
He didn’t hit as well in 2022 and the team, picked over by the selloff, didn’t play very well early on. Thus Schwindel was called on to pitch in three blowouts.
The Cubs were losing 12-5 to the Cardinals June 3 at Wrigley Field heading to the ninth inning, so Schwindel was summoned to replace Mark Leiter Jr. And Schwindel threw pretty well for a while, retiring the first two Cardinals he faced. Then Corey Dickerson and Lars Nootbaar homered off him, and Schwindel wound up popping up to end the game. The Cubs lost 14-5.
Nine days later the Cubs were visiting Yankee Stadium for the last of a three-game series. In the first of those games, the Cubs lost 2-1 in 13 innings, using nine pitchers. The second contest was an 8-0 blowout, with Matt Swarmer and Michael Rucker taking one for the team, Swarmer serving up a team record six home runs.
So when the Yankees started pounding Cubs pitching in that third game of the series, Schwindel warmed up his pitching arm again. The Cubs trailed 17-4 going into the ninth inning.
The pitch was — and I believe remains — the slowest pitch ever measured in the pitch tracking era (since 2008) that was hit for a home run.
Weird, but fun. The Cubs lost the game 18-4. It was the sixth loss in what would become a 10-game losing streak.
Three days later, the Cubs were being blown out again, this time at Wrigley Field against the Padres, in what would become the ninth loss in that streak.
They were losing 16-5 when Schwindel entered to throw the ninth. Schwindel surrendered another homer, this one to Luke Voit, and two more runs, making the final score Padres 19, Cubs 5.
That streak was one of the most dreadful in Cubs history. The Cubs lost the three games in which Schwindel pitched by a combined score of 51-14, and from the first of those three games through the end of that 10-game losing streak, the Cubs went 1-11 and were outscored 105-41.
That wasn’t a good Cubs season. But at least Schwindel entertained us, a bit, anyway.
Late in the evening of October 22, 2003, Carl Pavano toed the rubber at Miami’s then-Pro Player Stadium. He faced Derek Jeter, who had been named Yankees captain just months prior. Pavano had already retired Jeter three times that day, including inducing two back-breaking double plays. If he could put him away once more, the pitcher who’d flamed out in Montreal and struggled to find consistency throughout his brief career would have a signature moment, an eight-inning, one-run show of dominance against the mighty Bronx Bombers in the Fall Classic. On the fifth pitch of the at-bat, he caught Jeter looking with a pitch on the outside corner. Somewhere, Brian Cashman and George Steinbrenner were watching.
Carl Pavano Signing Date: December 20, 2004 Contract: Four years, $39.95 million
Pavano was born in New Britain, Connecticut, where he pitched well enough at Southington High School to garner the attention of the Red Sox, who took him in the 13th round of the 1994 MLB Draft. He quickly rose through the ranks, dominating both Double-A and Triple-A and ending up as Baseball America’s ninth-ranked prospect in all of baseball before the 1998 season. That’s when Boston flipped him to the Expos as the prospect headliner of the deal that brought back Pedro Martínez.
The 22-year-old made his debut for Montreal that year, posting an encouraging 4.21 ERA and league-average 100 ERA+ in 134.2 innings. But, in what would become a trend for Pavano, the following years were marred by inconsistency and injury. The Expos threw in the towel on him midway through the 2002 season, trading the starter — who was 3-8 with a 6.30 ERA at the time — to the Marlins as part of a package that netted them Cliff Floyd and Wilton Guerrero.
The 2003 season was the first time Pavano truly got the chance to pitch a full, healthy season. He performed around league average but passed the 200-inning threshold, demonstrating that he could shoulder his share of the load in a competitive rotation.
But it was in the postseason when the right-hander truly broke out. In 19.1 innings — including that aforementioned World Series Game 4 start against the Yankees — Pavano allowed just three runs, serving as a catalyst for Florida’s unlikely title run.
Pavano continued that run of dominance into his walk year in 2004, delivering a career year at the perfect time. The 28-year-old earned the only All-Star berth of his career, winning 18 games for a middling Marlins team while finishing sixth in Cy Young voting. Crucially, he tossed 222.1 innings, ranking top-10 in baseball and signaling that his injury-prone days were behind him.
The 2004-2005 offseason was a transformative one for the Yankees’ rotation. After a backbreaking ALCS exit in ‘04, Jon Lieber and Esteban Loaiza exited in free agency. GM Brian Cashman worked feverishly to replenish his corps of starters, signing Pavano to a four-year, $39.95 million deal and Jaret Wright to a three-year, $21 million deal while swapping Javier Vázquez to the Diamondbacks in a trade that brought back five-time Cy Young Award-winner Randy Johnson.
Joe Torre, in a classic instance of putting the cart before the horse, exalted in his apparent embarrassment of riches. “We have a ton of pitchers on the staff,” the Yankees manager said after the acquisitions. “It’s a nice problem to have, trust me. Last year, my only concern was the lack of depth in the starting pitching. Now we have some youth, too.”
Torre played a major role in luring Pavano. While several teams aggressively courted the starter — including the Red Sox, who set up a lunch with ace Curt Schilling to lure him, and the Tigers, who enlisted Hall of Famer Al Kaline to show him around Detroit — the longtime skipper’s personal touch spoke to him. “His conversations with Joe Torre, who spoke with him again by phone in the last couple of days, really were impactful,” Pavano’s agent, Scott Shapiro, said. “Carl told me point-blank that he would go to war for the man. You can’t say anything bad about the decision of wanting to play for Joe Torre.“
Pavano’s outgoing manager lauded the Yankees for the move as well, citing what had become a well-established reputation for hard work and mental toughness. “Carl is a pretty level-headed kid,” Marlins manager Jack McKeon said. “He has a lot of pride and a tremendous desire to get better. He’s not satisfied with winning 18. He wants to get better. Nothing is going to bother him.”
This honeymoon continued into spring training where New York beat writers trumpeted his winning demeanor. Despite throwing two scoreless innings in his spring training debut, Pavano told the media that, “I don’t know if I’ll ever be happy, no matter how I throw out there. That’s how I keep my edge.” His hard-nosed, lunch-pail attitude were theorized to be a perfect fit for New York.
At the end of the day, though, what matters is performance. After a solid first month, Pavano began to unravel. By June, his ERA had ballooned above 4.50 and he was looking for answers. “I’m just trying to keep on level ground,” he told the press after a particularly difficult start. “Go out there and battle.”
Eventually, he could battle no longer, landing on the IL with an amorphous arm injury. After weeks of uncertainty, he was finally diagnosed with rotator cuff tendonitis, ending his season. “Mentally, it’s been tough on me,” Pavano said of his inability to stay on the field. “There’s a point when you feel like you’ve abandoned your team. Obviously, I’d like to be out there helping these guys win. But that’s not the case.”
It appeared to be all systems go for 2006. But injuries again derailed his season, punctuated by an unfortunate nondisclosure in August. As he worked back from injury, Pavano was in an automobile accident that resulted in broken ribs. He failed to inform the Yankees until they had planned to activate him off the IL, at which point he was forced to reveal his inability to pitch. The ailing hurler took “full responsibility for making the wrong decision,” explaining he had hoped to be healthy enough to pitch once activated regardless of the new injury. “At the time, I thought it was something I could get through,” he said at the time. “I figured I could pitch through it and it would get better. It didn’t get better.”
This time, Pavano had lost even his usual defenders. “Of course I’m angry,” said Cashman simply. Perhaps more importantly, the press corps which had hailed Pavano’s blue-collar work ethic a mere 18 months prior had completed a full reversal. As Tyler Kepner began his article in The New York Times announcing the surprise rib injury, “Carl Pavano continues to find new ways to let down the Yankees. The difference now is that the team is more than disappointed. It’s angry.”
The rib injury would keep the embattled Pavano from pitching in 2006 altogether. Despite his frustration with the circumstances of the injury, Cashman continued to give lip service to defending a free agent signing who had given little in return halfway through the deal. “I know there’s a lot of stuff flying around that he doesn’t want to pitch here, but he’s been held back by physical issues, and they’ve all been legitimate,” the GM said, adding, ”Players can’t play through marble-sized bone chips.“
Others in the organization were less sure. ”You have to walk into this clubhouse, dress next to these guys and carry your share of the load,“ Torre said of Pavano’s inability to contribute. “That’s what it amounts to. If that’s a little tough to do at first, so be it.” As Pavano prepared a comeback attempt in the spring of 2007, the club’s longest-tenured starter had some pointed words for his rotation-mate. “It didn’t look good from a player’s and teammate’s standpoint,” the usually reserved Mike Mussina said. “Was everything coincidence? Over and over again? I don’t know.”
Remarkably, given the apparent ambivalence about his return within the organization, Pavano was handed the ball on Opening Day after an injury to Chien-Ming Wang. Options were limited given the team’s injury woes at the time, but once again, he had a chance to let his play do the talking. And, once again, that opportunity was short-lived. After just two starts, Pavano went on the shelf with an elbow injury that ended up requiring Tommy John surgery.
By then, Mussina and some of his teammates even took to referring to the injured list as “the Pavano.” In an early 2007 interview from Tom Verducci’s The Yankee Years, the Moose made this biting comment:
“Our problem right now is we have too many pitchers on the 15-day Pavano … That’s what it’s officially called now. Did you know that? The Pavano. His body just shut down from actually pitching for six weeks. It’s like when you get an organ transplant and your body rejects it. His body rejected pitching. It’s not used to it.”
Pavano didn’t return until late August 2008, by which point the Yankees had fallen to the fringes of the playoff race and no one really cared about Pavano playing out the string. In all, Pavano would make just 26 starts for New York — less than a full season’s worth — over the course of his four years.
As he wound down his remarkably fruitless tenure in pinstripes, Pavano gave his side of the story in an interview with Kepner, airing grievances about the Yankees’ handling of his injuries. “A lot of times when I was in Tampa, I was really angry, because I’m away from my team, and I’m down there not getting the support that you feel you need to be successful,” Pavano said. “You know people are doubting you that should be helping you. You know people are kicking you when you’re down, and they should be picking you up. That’s the nature of this environment.”
In particular, Pavano placed blame on the team’s doctor, Stuart Hershon, who he felt had not appropriately diagnosed him at key junctures. “When they reported I had rotator cuff tendinitis, I actually had a stress fracture in my humerus bone,” he said of the pivotal 2005 injury that derailed his debut season and began his unraveling in New York. “It wasn’t rotator cuff tendinitis. It was just misdiagnosed.” He also took accountability for his role in pitching through injury. “I wish I had been smart enough to just get it right,” Pavano said. “Say something, make sure something was taken care of, instead of just keeping pitching and thinking it was going to get better.”
Cashman once again defended Pavano on the way out. “At the end of the day, he was hurt,” he said. “People always say, ‘Why do you stick up for him? Is it because you signed him?’ I’m just being objective. The guy, I know, can pitch when he’s healthy. He just hasn’t been healthy. It’s not because he mentally wanted it that way. It just happened.”
In a painful turn for Yankees fans, their GM would be proven right. After splitting 2009 between Cleveland and Minnesota, the veteran returned to the Twins in 2010 for his age-34 season. He proceeded to post one of the best seasons of his career, winning 17 games for a division-winning squad.
Perhaps the greatest twist of the knife, given Pavano’s inability to stay on the field in New York, is that he led the league that year with seven complete games while blowing past the 200-inning threshold — a feat he’d repeat the following year. The only solace the Yankees faithful could take in Pavano’s resurrection in Minnesota was that he lost both of his postseason starts against his former team, one each in ‘09 and ‘10.
Pavano retired after the 2012 season at the age of 36. His career was a mass of contradictions — the pitcher praised for his tenacity and ridiculed for his lack of commitment, the top prospect who found some of his greatest success after injuries had sapped his premier stuff, the playoff hero accused of folding under New York’s bright lights.
Was he was a great pitcher felled by unavoidable injury who unfairly had his reputation tarnished in the process? Was he a talented player whose motivation was not consistent enough to sustain a successful career? More than 20 years after he signed with the Yankees, it’s difficult to say. Without question, though, his contract will forever be remembered as one of the worst in team history.
See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.
We began with the same ballot as the Hall of Fame in 2015, and have proceeded from there on. The same 75% super-majority is required for election, and players are removed from the future ballot on election here, regardless of whether or not they made it into the “real” Hall of Fame. So far, the SnakePit electorate has been in reasonably close agreement with the BBWAA – timing has been the main variation, but we have generally been a greater proponent of “small Hall”. The differences are as follows
In Cooperstown, but not yet here: Mike Mussina, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, C.C. Sabathia, Billy Wagner
In here, but not in Cooperstown: Curt Schilling
Wagner and Sheffield are now dropped from the SnakePit ballot, so have to wait for the Veterans’ Committee. Which would mean having to establish one, so they probably shouldn’t hold their breath. Failing to get over 5% last time, and so also removed are (deep breath) Cliff Lee, Mark Buehrle, Matt Holliday, David Wright, Brian McCann, Dan Haren, Adrián González, Ian Kinsler, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramírez. Russell Martin, Adam Jones and Carlos González. This year’s list has been adjusted for the non-electees mentioned above, along with adding the following new arrivals.
Cole Hamels
Ryan Braun
Alex Gordon
Shin-Soo Choo
Edwin Encarnación
Howie Kendrick
Nick Markakis
Hunter Pence
Gio Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Daniel Murphy
Rick Porcello
Andruw Jones (9th season, 70%), Helton (8th, 70%), Rolen (9th, 50%) and Sabathia (1st, 55%) are the returning names mentioned on half or more of the ballots in 2025. We’ll see if any of these end up getting closer to induction into SnakePit Towers! Manny Ramirez (40%) will be drinking at the last chance saloon on the 2026 ballot. I’m not seeing any slam-dunk candidates this year, like Ichiro was, so it is possible I might not have to spend any money on PBR and sausage rolls for an induction ceremony. But we will see
To prevent potential ballot-box stuffing, voting is open only to registered AZ SnakePit users – forms without a valid username filled in will be rejected [however, since you can join by clicking on a link and filling in a form, it’s not exactly an onerous requirement!]. I reserve the right to publish your ballot, with or without your name attached, depending on how amusing it is. However, feel free to announce your ballot and explain it in the comments. You can select as many candidates as you want: there’s no “10 maximum” as on the real thing. Voting is open through Jan 19: the BBWAA will announce their results the following day, and we’ll follow suit shortly thereafter. I will filter out multiple votes too, so you know!
The form is below, and the eligible names are randomized for each submission: here’s a link if you’re on mobile or are otherwise finding the form griefsome. Please feel free to explain your selection in the comments!
Nolan Arenado fields a ground ball with his bare hand. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Inspiration.
The Diamondbacks acquired Nolan Arenado. He has won 5 Silver Slugger awards, 10 Gold Glove awards, and 6 Platinum Glove awards. And yet his batting declined to near average in the last couple seasons. What happened? Will he impact the Diamondbacks?
Batting.
The context of his batting decline was that even in decline his batting has some awesome characteristics. Three characteristics follow:
11.2 K% was at the 96th percentile.
17.9 whiff % was at the 85th percentile.
28.8 squared up % was at the 76th percentile.
His batting decline can be understood in at least three ways. Let’s look at each explanation.
Injury. In June he injured his finger. He played through the injury by adjusting his swing. On 11 July, he aggravated the injury. Later in July, his adjusted swing was likely responsible for his shoulder injury. He was on the injured list until September.
Nolan Arenado regrets that he played through the injury instead of immediately addressing it.
“If I could do it all over again, I probably would have just taken time [on the injured list] when I hurt my finger — that was probably the biggest mistake I made.”— Nolan Arenado
Less Pulled Baseballs. Looking at his balls in play, the percentage that were pulled fell from 46.9% in 2023, to 44.2% in 2024, to 42.1% in 2025. That is significant because in 2025 his monthly (ignoring July because it was the injury month) OBP/SLG/wOBA stats shown in Baseball Savant were consistently awesome for pulled balls in play, but below average for straightaway and opposite field balls in play. In September, he showed potential for average results to the opposite field.
For an obvious reason, it is easier to pull the ball when contact is made farther in front of the plate. Perhaps he pulled a lower percentage of balls because he hit the ball closer to the plate. His average contact point changed from 4.8”/4.9” in 2023/2024 to 3.0” in 2025 when league average was 2.9” per Baseball Savant.
“I think some of the adjustments I’m trying to make, and the adjustments that I’ve talked with the hitting coaches already about are going to pay dividends down the line….quiet my head, see the ball better, and hopefully create space for me to work out front again. That’s when I’m at my best is when I’m pulling the ball out front.” — Nolan Arenado
Busch Field was unlucky. To some extent, in 2025 Nolan Arenado was unlucky with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP). While 30.5% of his PAs were with RISP, only 26.5% of his hits were with RISP, and only 8.3% of his homers were with RISP per Baseball Savant. If his batting had been consistent, even with RISP, his SLG and Runs Batted In (RBIs) would have been higher.
Moving from Busch Field to Chase Field will be a positive change. Park factors show he will hit more doubles (park factor increases from 105 to 115) and triples (park factor increases from 81 to 204). More doubles and triples will improve his SLG and RBIs.
Defense.
In the context that the last time he won a Gold Glove award and a Platinum Glove Award was 2022 (when he won both), and that as he ages his defense will decline, I am confident that he is an outstanding defender at third base.
In 2025, his 2.4% errors per attempt was a career best. His 98.2 fielding percentage and his 2.84 Range Factor per 9 innings are above league averages.
His strength will be fielding ground balls hit to third base. In 2025, his 85.3% positive results with ground balls compared favorably to the Diamondbacks’ 77.7%. (Also, his positive defensive results increased slightly with RISP.)
My view is that his strength will most improve the results of Diamondbacks pitchers who had the highest percent of ground balls towards third base. The following table shows the pitchers who will benefit the most. 2025 Data from Baseball Savant.
Impact on Diamondbacks Wins.
Batting. My subjective estimate is that his impact will add 10 runs scored. That is roughly equivalent to one additional win. That is based on the following assumptions:
No re-injuries to his finger or shoulder.
He pulls more balls by contacting the ball farther in front of the plate.
He hits at least as well with RISP as without RISP.
He hits more doubles and triples at Chase Field than Busch Field due to different park factors.
Defense. My subjective estimate is that the impacted pitchers will allow 10 less runs due to Nolan Arenado’s strong defense. That is roughly equivalent to one additional win.
Summary.
Nolan Arenado will add two wins to the Diamondbacks.
Dominic Smith missed the final 15 games of the Giants’ season, and while that time didn’t wind up impacting what’ll happen to his career in 2026, it wound up being a huge pivot point for the fate of the San Francisco Giants. The postseason might’ve slipped through their fingers though moment he strained his hamstring.
Just a couple of days before he went down with that season-ending injury, I offered up this glowing profile, supposing that this steadyhanded journeyman is precisely what the Giants needed to ride the rapids of the season. Though it could be argued that he was a bit of a Hail Mary move by the front office, his impact was akin to those grizzled veteran additions Brian Sabean made and that always seemed to work out.
Dominic Smith has been a good Giant this season. Since joining the squad, he’s third in Win Probability Added, behind Matt Chapman and Willy Adames. Indeed, as a Giant, he’s 22nd in MLB in FanGraphs’ Clutch Statistic and that leads the team (keeping in mind that Chapman & Adames have had way more plate appearances to dilute that stat).
His three biggest moments of the season:
August 6 at Pittsburgh (+0.293 WPA)
This one helped the Giants get back over .500 after that winless homestand that dropped them below .500 for the first time all season.
This one netted a split with a division rival early enough in the season when anything seemed possible. It pulled them to within a game of San Diego and just 3 back of the Dodgers.
This one broke a 7-game home losing streak and wound up being only the 2nd win of a 9-game homestand. That win kicked off a 24-game stretch where the Giants went 16-8 and Smith slashed .290/.313/.435 with a pair of homers, 3 doubles, and 13 RBI, a +0.341 WPA overall. The team was just half a game out of the third Wild Card after this run.
After he went down, the Giants went 6-9 over their final stretch of games.
Smith was brought in to replace LaMonte Wade Jr. He never attained a nickname like “Late Night,” but he wound up serving a similar function. He also stepped into the clutch veteran roll that Wilmer Flores’s age/health had pushed him out of, and did it almost like a handoff, since Wilmer had seemingly carried the team for the first month of the season.
Smith gave the Giants a chance to win nearly every day and in his absence they simply couldn’t. He wasn’t a foundational talent like Devers, Adames, Chapman, and Patrick Bailey, but it turns out he was the load bearing poster of 2025. It wasn’t his fault the team couldn’t get its act together enough for that to not be the case, but credit to him for stepping up to be that guy for as long as he could. It’s the sort of story baseball gives us nearly every season, and even when things don’t go as hoped for with the team overall, it’s nice to remember the individual accomplishments like these.
It’s that time of year again! Athletics Nation’s annual Community Prospect List time, where you, the fans of our A’s, will get to vote for who is ranked among the farm system’s best and brightest prospects. This year we’ll be going as far as the top-25 in the system. starting with the top prospect and wrapping it up with the #25 spot.
The process for this public vote is explained below. Please take a moment to read this before participating:
Please only vote for one. The player with the most votes at the end of voting will win the ranked spot. The remaining four players move on to the next ballot where they are joined by a new nominee.
In the comments, below the official voting, the community will nominate players to be put onto the ballot for the next round. The format for your comment should be “Nomination: Player Name”.
If a prospect is traded, his name will be crossed out, and all other players will be moved up a space. If a prospect is acquired, a special vote will be put up to determine where that player should rank.
* * *
We will start out with five nominees vying for the top spot in our rankings. The candidates for the top prospect in the Athletics’ farm system are the cream of the crop in the organization. Shortstop Leo De Vries is widely considered one of the best prospects in the entire sport and is a potentially franchise-altering player. It took a lot to pry him away from San Diego but he could be a center piece for a future playoff contender. The same could be said for left-handed pitchers Jamie Arnold and Gage Jump, both of whom were selected by MLB Pipeline as two of the top left-handers in the entirety of the sport recently.
If you lend more weight to players who are actually on the cusp of making it to the big leagues, you may end up voting for top outfield prospect Henry Bolte, who stole 44 bags last year and offers a different aspect than what the A’s offense usually produces. He could be a backup plan in center field if Denzel Clarke’s bat isn’t quite up to snuff. Right-hander Braden Nett, who came over to the A’s organization along with De Vries, spent all of last year in Double-A and posted encouraging results. It wouldn’t be a shock of the Athletics, who have been aggressive with their prospects in recent years, see him succeed at Triple-A next year and decide to get an early look at the righty.
Here’s a quick rundown on each one — the scouting grades (on a 20-to-80 scale) and scouting reports come from MLB Pipeline(last updated early-2026).
A switch-hitter, De Vries already shows an exquisite knowledge of the zone and will take his walks like he’s a player many years older. He needed just a little bit more exposure to California League arms before making the adjustment to their quality, and that speaks well to how he’ll handle higher levels, something he continued to show in the Midwest League with low strikeout and high walk rates at the time of the trade. After getting to his power more from the right side in 2024, with seven of his 11 homers coming from that side despite far fewer plate appearances, he flipped the script in 2025, with seven of his eight homers coming left-handed before he was sent to the A’s. He has more than enough bat speed from both sides of the plate where splits aren’t a major concern.
A former point guard in basketball, the Dominican Republic native is an agile runner and efficient on the basepaths. He has the range and hands to handle shortstop well, and even though he got some looks at second base in the Fall League, he’s played shortstop exclusively this season. There’s enough arm strength here to keep him on the left side of the dirt anyways. De Vries plays like a prospect hungry for challenges, which has served him well during his age-18 season.
Jump’s fastball is difficult for opposing hitters to pick up with an arm angle that creates some deception. The heater sits about 92-94 mph and can reach up to 97 with good carry up in the zone. His upper-70s curveball has significant downer break, and his low-80s slider has cutting action. His fading low-80s changeup is used far less than his other three offerings.
Listed at 6-foot, Jump lacks the size of a typical starter, though his growth since the surgery and ability to generate his stuff with arm speed helps his potential outlook as a long-term starter. The ceiling of a mid-rotation starter is there, though some scouts believe he might be better suited in a bullpen role. To start out, the A’s will develop him as a starter and look to see him maintain good health and strike-throwing ability.
A left-hander with a rangy body and a loose, whippy arm, Arnold has seen his stuff tick up since leaving Jesuit High School for Tallahassee. Coming from a lower arm slot and flat approach angle, his fastball, which was 88-92 mph in high school, now sits in the 94-95 mph range and touches 97, with a ton of life to miss bats. While his slider can be a little wide at times, the 82-85 mph sweeping breaking ball is a second plus offering that elicited a 43 percent miss rate in 2024 and ’25 combined. His changeup is his third pitch, and he doesn’t need it much, but there’s some feel for it.
Arnold has shown the ability to fill up the strike zone and limit damage while maintaining his stuff deep into outings. With the funky arm slot, his stuff has drawn some comparisons to Chris Sale, a reason why people think it shouldn’t take him too long to join a big league rotation.
Bolte is a tooled-up athlete who continues to fill out his big 6-foot-3 frame. His impressive raw power continues to show up in the Minors, though there is still a real concern over his swing-and-miss and high strikeout rate as he continues to struggle with offspeed stuff out of the zone. The A’s have worked with him to revamp his swing in order to improve his bat path and cover more of the zone, which has produced slight improvements in those areas, though there is still plenty of work to be done.
Another shining tool for Bolte is his near-elite speed, which was on display last season as he swiped 46 bags. That speed also comes in handy on defense, combining that with a strong arm that makes him a solid outfielder at all three spots. Further refining is required, but he remains an exciting talent with a very high ceiling who continues to steadily advance through the system.
While working around the injuries, Nett has continued to show stellar velocity, touching as high as 99 mph in the Minor Leagues last season. He typically sits 95-97 mph and gets swing-and-miss up in the zone thanks to ample carry. He also throws a tight 81-84 mph slider that ran a 38 percent whiff rate in ’24 and a sharper 90-92 mph cutter that can catch hitters off guard. He’ll mix in an upper-70s curveball with more vertical drop and he’s scrapped a low-80s splitter in favor of a much more effective 88 mph kick-change that really neutralizes lefties.
Nett has some effort in his delivery, and the 2025 season (pre-trade) was the first time he’d posted a walk rate below 13 percent at any Minor League stop. Combine that with the early injury concerns, and it’s easy to think he could be a reliever eventually. But his arsenal is deep enough, and his stuff is promising enough — when combined with strides taken this season — to keep landing him in a starting role in the upper Minors.
* * *
Programming Note: Each CPL vote will run for around 48 hours, so don’t delay making your selections!
It’s been a couple of days now since the news hit Braves Country like a meteor falling out of the sky. Ha-Seong Kim is now set to miss all of spring training and at least a couple of months of the regular season on top of that. This is after he reportedly slipped on ice while walking around in his home country. He slipped on ice. The Braves will have to do without their starting shortstop for nearly half of the season because of a patch of ice.
Part of my coping mechanism is simply repeating what happened out loud so that it sets in. I’ve done that multiple times over the past couple of days and as you can see, I’m still doing it. It’s just wild to think about but also when you consider the injury luck that the Braves have had for two full seasons now (and hopefully this is as bad as it gets for this season in particular), it’s somehow not out of the ordinary, either. This is just another injury or unintended absence that the Braves will have to deal with, just like what they had to deal with for large portions of both the 2024 and 2025 regular seasons.
The only good news about this injury to Kim is that it happened in mid-January and that this is a position that the Braves at least did a good job in fortifying with their offseason business. Now, don’t misunderstand what I’m about to say here when it comes to Maurico Dubón (and Jorge Mateo as well after the Braves brought him in on a one-year, $1 million deal shortly after the news about Kim’s injury broke): It’s definitely not ideal to have Dubón holding down the fort at shortstop for a long stretch of time. Sure, you heard people like Alex Anthopoulos and Walt Weiss both talk about how they’d be fine with Dubón being the starting shortstop while that was still a possibility before Kim’s signing changed the depth chart around here.
With that being said, there’s a reason why agreed to pay Kim $20 million for just one season (and hopefully more, since I’d imagine that the Braves would still be interested in keeping Kim around once he recovers and hopefully rebounds) at shortstop: It’s because they absolutely needed Kim and the offense that he could potentially provide at that position. There’s no question that Dubón is going to provide solid-to-great defense for the Braves at the shortstop spot while he holds down that spot. There’s a very big question as to whether or not Dubón will hit enough to where they won’t be desperately missing Kim’s potential of plate production. Atlanta already went through nearly one full season with paltry plate performance from the shortstop spot and it was clear that they didn’t want to have to deal with another season of that.
Unfortunately, it’s looking like that might be the case. Dubón is coming off of a season where he finished in the tenth percentile of all batters when it came to Batting Run Value (-12. Negative twelve!) and his two best finishes in that category came in 2023 when he finished in the 44th percentile and then in the COVID-shortened 2020 season where he logged a 47th-percentile finish — both only gave him a Batting Run Value of 1 for the season. Jorge Mateo also isn’t going to be hitting balls off of outfield walls on a regular basis either, as he’ll be entering 2026 as a career 75 wRC+ hitter with a high-water mark of 87 wRC+ back in 2024. Nacho Alvarez Jr. also has plenty of professional experience as a shortstop and could see some time there as well but he doesn’t have the glove to keep up with Dubón or Mateo and he certainly doesn’t hit much better than those two, either.
Plain and simple, this was just about one of the worst ways for the Braves to start off their season and we’re not even to the point where pitchers and catchers have reported for camp, yet. I mentioned in earlier articles that the Ha-Seong Kim signing essentially tied together all of the other offseason moves that the Braves made in order to make it all make sense. That signing was the finishing touch on an offseason painting from Alex Anthopoulos that wasn’t quite a masterpiece but still one that anybody would love to hang in their home.
Now, their biggest offseason signing won’t be around for a significant period of time and it’s certainly going to hamstring the Braves at the plate for as long as it takes Kim to eventually return and also get going as well. There’s no telling when we’ll finally see this Braves team at full strength but I doubt that it’ll be any time before July at this rate.
So while there’s no way around Kim’s injury not being a major blow to the 2026 Braves, it’s not a death sentence, either. The pitching squad still figures to be coming into this season fully healthy and if the Braves can simply maintain a healthy rotation then that alone could help them return to Postseason relevance in this upcoming season.
Additionally, the Braves have also upgraded their bullpen over the course of this offseason, they figure to be at full strength with a much-deeper outfield than last season’s team had to offer and the infield is still full of players who are either solidly capable of playing their position or fully capable of being stars as well. The hole at shortstop is a significant one to fill but you could certainly do with worse options than Dubón and Mateo as being half-season replacements.
So while this completely absurd and equally lame injury for Ha-Seong Kim is terrible news for the Braves, it’s still not the end of the world for this squad. I can absolutely understand if anybody’s feeling nervous about the injury bug that has hounded this team for over two seasons now continuing to float around this squad but at this point, there’s nothing we can do about it except continue to hope that everybody else can stay out of harm’s way and avoid stepping on an injury mine like Kim did.
The Braves are still set up pretty nicely for 2026 — they’ll just have to find a way to stay afloat and competitive before we see the complete vision of this team on the field in action. They’re set up well to do so but it’s also totally understandable if you’re already counting the days until Ha-Seong Kim returns to the starting lineup in Atlanta. It’ll just be a lot warmer outside than it is right now once he does finally return.
The Phillies are #RunningItBack in 2026! After missing out on Bo Bichette and re-signing J.T. Realmuto – barring any unforeseen moves between now and the start of the season – Dave Dombrowski has said that the 2026 Phillies are going to look very similar to the 2025 edition of the team.
Asked about notable players still on the free-agent market, Dave Dombrowski said, "I think we're content where we are at this point." Any roster adjustments figured to be more depth related.
We knew this since his end of year presser. He told us “we were 1 or 2 plays away from beating LA” so you knew we would just run it back. The worst part is we are running it back with missing pieces & no substantial adds lol. 2026 Phillies Baseball: Gaslight ‘em til they believe! https://t.co/YmKWDFvUKH
I understand why fans aren’t enthused about bringing back most of a team that has won a total of two playoff games the past two seasons. I too was in favor of adding Bichette or another big name, because adding good players to a roster is usually a positive thing.
But can we maintain some perspective on what the Phillies are running back? This team won 96 games in 2025, which was the second-most in baseball. They had two players finish in the top five of MVP voting – and that doesn’t include the guy who has actually won the award twice. They had three pitchers finish in the top ten of Cy Young Award voting and a closer who made the All-MLB team.
Obviously, they lost in the playoffs, but the loss came at the hands of the eventual champion super team Dodgers, with their three losses coming by a combined four runs. (If Orion Kerkering knew how to field, game four might still be going on.)
That’s pretty good! And others apparently agree since the Phillies currently have the second-best World Series odds in the National League.
It would be disingenuous (and Smarty is never disingenuous) to not mention the counter arguments:
This core has failed to win the World Series the past four years.
They’ve gone backwards every season. (People say this, but it isn’t actually true. They won one more game in 2026 and the playoff result was the same. It certainly wasn’t a step forward, but they didn’t go backwards)
A lot of key players are now one year older, and it is natural to expect some decline.
They lost Ranger Suarez and we don’t know what to expect from Zack Wheeler.
Maybe this group hasn’t shown an ability to win when it counts, but they seem like a good bet to make the playoffs again. If you think the Phillies are imperfect, take a look around the rest of the league aside from the Dodgers. And sadly, even if Dombrowski nailed the offseason, the Phillies would still have an inferior roster to the Dodgers.
Faced with this reality, here is my suggestion: Just enjoy the regular season as its happening, and don’t get too hung up on what may or may not happen in the playoffs. Think back to 2021 when the team was in year ten of not even making it to the playoffs, and we had to wonder if they ever would again. As disappointing as the past Octobers have been, I will take this run over that any day.
This may sound snarky, but if you’re at the point where you consider just winning the division or making the playoffs to be a massive failure, then I suggest you not watch any games before October. When regular season wins fail to bring you joy and only cause a response of, “Who cares? It doesn’t mean anything until the playoffs,” then preserve your mental health, and don’t put yourself through 162 games of aggravation.
And who knows, maybe the playoffs will turn out differently this year. It’s easy to say, “Same roster, same results,” but as I mentioned, the oddsmakers think they have a chance. It wouldn’t be the first time that a core of Phillies players finally came through after years of failures.
If that’s going to happen, they need the trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner to do far better than they did during last year’s playoffs. The Phillies gave huge contracts to each of them expecting them to be the main pieces of a championship team, and I think they are capable of it. But they need to justify that faith (and money) in the postseason, for more than just one game. (You can only win a game once, guys.)
Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the NLDS:
Game 1: 1-for-11 (Dodgers win) Game 2: 1-for-10 (Dodgers win) Game 3: 7-for-13 (Phillies win) Game 4: 1-for-14 (Dodgers win) pic.twitter.com/8BAwWTzTVD
The real hope for improvement comes from the farm system. John Stolnis wrote how its well past time the Phillies’ minor league system provides positive results. Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter (and maybe even Aidan Miller) are going to get their chances this year, and maybe they can prove to be the missing pieces that will allow the Phillies to finally bring home another trophy.
Sure, this hasn’t been the offseason most of us dreamed of. Maybe #RunningItBack doesn’t provide the excitement we wanted. But at this point, there’s nothing else to do besides hope for the best and understand that there are worse places to be.
After the Mets lost out on Kyle Tucker, with the outfielder signing a mammoth contract with the Dodgers, the main question was where would the Mets turn next? The Mets, through trades and free agency, lost many lineup mainstays, and while they still had Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, they were looking for another major addition to their offense. And with Tucker off the board, their options became that much more limited.
Turns out, that question did not go unanswered for long. Less than 24 hours after missing on Kyle Tucker the Mets signed free agent infielder Bo Bichette for a three year contract worth $126 million. And while there are opt-outs that could lead to an early exit from Queens, the fact of the matter is that, at least for 2026, Bo Bichette will be a New York Met.
Bo Bichette has spent the entirety of his career playing for the Toronto Blue Jays. He was drafted in the second round of the 2016 MLB draft, and made his debut in July of 2019, forming a formidable homegrown duo with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In his seven seasons in Toronto, he hit .294/.337/.469 with 111 home runs, 437 runs batted in, and a career 122 wRC+. He accumulated 20 fWAR in his time in Toronto.
In his last season in Toronto Bichette hit .311/.357/.483, hitting 18 home runs and driving in 94 runs. He had a 134 wRC+, his second-best career mark, just after his abbreviated 2019 after his call-up. He accumulated 3.8 fWAR, which was short of what he probably could’ve gotten given a late season knee sprain that cost him the final month of the season and most of the playoffs. He was able to make a miraculous return in time for the World Series, where he had an incredible showing. In seven games he hit .348/.444/.478, with one home run and six runs batted in, adding up to an incredible 165 wRC+.
Now before last season’s excellence, he had the worst campaign of his career in 2024. He hit an abysmal .225/.277/.322 in 81 games, with just four home runs and 31 runs batted in. He was 30% worse than league average with a 70 wRC+, and was worth just 0.3 fWAR. But he also had two separate stints on the injured list that year, including one that cost him multiple months of the season, so he might not have been able to get his footing underneath him with all the injury issues.
He’s not a flawless player. He has never been a player who draws a lot of walks, with a career BB% of 5.7%, and last year had the second highest mark of his career with 6.4%. Over his seven seasons he’s struck out 19.4% of the time, though last season he brought that down to a career low 14.5%. And he’s getting progressively slower each year, only being in the 21st percentile of sprint speed last season.
He’s also never been a great fielder. He’s spent almost his entire career at short with the exception of last year’s World Series when he played second base. His high marks as a fielder were in 2020 and 2024, when he was worth 1 OAA in both seasons (both abbreviated seasons for Bichette as well). Last season he was worth -13 OAA, with all his games at shortstop.
But now he’s going to be playing third base, with Lindor to his left. And his major issue has been his range, not his arm, since he’s had a 0 run value for his arm over his career (which is better than the extreme negative of his range). So if he has to focus less on covering a ton of ground and has Lindor to help him (and Marcus Semien to help cover up the other side of Lindor), he might just be alright at his new position.
After missing out on Kyle Tucker, the Mets quickly pivoted and brought in Bichette to play third and help solidify their lineup. While on paper he’s yet another middle infielder on a team chock full of them, his impending move to third makes the team more flexible and stronger at the plate. There are some concerns to be had about his defense and potential to turn out a clunker of a season, money’s on Bichette being a welcome addition to a Mets team looking for a new identity in the wake of the dismantling of their core.
Going into the 2025 season, left-handed starting prospect Gabriel Reyes was one of my picks for an unheralded prospect to break out. As it turned out, the stuff was willing, but the body and the command were not. Reyes spun his wheels at Single-A Lakeland despite good results, and now he’ll head into his age 22 season in real need of a big season that will carry him to the upper minors.
The Dominican born Reyes signed with the Tigers back in the 2020 international signing period. He immediately tore the DSL up with five dominant short starts and then came stateside at 18 to pitch in the Complex League in 2021 and 2022. Injury trouble cost him the 2023 season, but he moved up to Single-A Lakeland in 2024 and showed off dominant stuff and good control for a young southpaw. He punched out 33.9 percent of the hitters he faced across 11 starts. His only blemish was such aggressive strike throwing that he occasionally left a few meatballs over the heart of the plate that got whacked.
So we were excited for his 2025 campaign. It just didn’t pan out well. First, Reyes reportedly came to camp in sub-optimal shape. The Tigers held him back for a few weeks before turning him loose again for the Lakeland Flying Tigers. Reyes had a good year on paper. He made 16 starts, got more ground balls and cut down the home runs, producing a stellar 2.40 ERA. His walks ticked up, but for a young pitcher he still shows a very good ratio of strikes thrown. And yet the Tigers never decided to promote him to West Michigan. The problem was more erratic pure stuff than he showed in 2024, and it showed as his strikeout rate dipped to 22.5 percent. They may also just have wanted to keep working with him at their main camp to make sure he was 100 percent ready for the move out into the farm system.
Reyes stands 6’1” and while he appears pretty strong and athletic for his size, he has a pretty reedy frame with an official weight of 170 pounds. He’s added some muscle in the past two years, and while he may get a little stronger he’s pretty close to maxed out physically.
The big calling card is a slider with a lot of sweep that is a plus pitch much of the time. He really turns the slider over and is quite adept at burying it on right-handed hitters’ back foot. At the Single-A level he can also pour it into the zone with impunity as long as he doesn’t leave too many above the belt, and he will get a lot of called strikes with it.
The fourseam fastball has a cruising speed of 92-93 mph and Reyes can run it up to 95 mph when he wants it. He’s a short-armer who doesn’t get a big stride, so the velocity plays down maybe a half a mile per hour, but the funk counterbalances that factor. When he’s up in the 94-95 mph band it’s at least an average fastball, which argues for an eventual move to the bullpen if he can’t ultimately build up to sustaining that velocity. He’s also developing a solid changeup but that pitch is still pretty hit or miss for him in terms of command.
Reyes has some funk, as he throws out of a low three-quarters arm slot, but his stuff doesn’t move the way hitters expect from that slot. Simply put, he has the arm slot of a guy that would usually pronate more and produce a lot of tailing action on the fastball and changeup. Instead it’s a true fourseamer that throws hitters off by defying the look of his release and sinking more than moving horizontally. He has started mixing in some actual sinkers with more tailing action as a change of pace to both right and left-handed hitters, but the fourseam is still accounting for about three-quarters of all fastballs thrown.
All told, Reyes looks like a potentially good lefty reliever. A lot would have to go right for him to reach the majors as a starter and I doubt he’ll get much more leash in that role. His size and delivery scream reliever. Presumably if there isn’t a big breakout this year the team will convert him and try to fastrack his move into the upper minors. He’ll be 23 next summer and it’s time to get a move on and conquer the High-A level this year. Expect him to start with the Whitecaps, and the Tigers will decide to adjust based on how he progresses by the end of the year.
Here’s a look at his six inning, 9 strikeout performance from back on August 17.
In this edition of our birthday series, we take a look at a player who reached the top of his abilities in his very first chance in the big leagues, never to reach that mark again. Kevin Maas was a late draft pick for the Yankees in the mid-’80s, and found his way to the Bronx by unfortunate circumstances. Despite that, he took full advantage of the situation and shined brightly for a brief period.
Maas’ career was not ultimately that long or historically significant with the Yankees, but he was still able to make his mark. Particularly true when considering that he provided some excitement in a stale point on the Yankee timeline.
Kevin Maas Born: January 20, 1965 (Castro Valley, CA) Yankees Tenure: 1990-93
In the 22nd round of the 1986 amateur draft, the Yankees selected Kevin Maas, out of the University of California. From the beginning, the 6-foot-3 left-hander impressed at the professional level. He first appeared at low-A in ‘86, and slowly worked his way through the Yankees system through the late ‘80s.
Come 1990, the Yankees didn’t have a whole lot of things break their way. But, if anything could be counted on, it was their star first baseman Don Mattingly. But even he couldn’t help things in the Bronx, as the injury bug began to bite for the first time in his career, and the lefty experienced his first real down season. He was banged up for most of the year, and when he did play, his power at the plate had all but disappeared. Luckily for New York, Maas provided a major spark as a rookie.
After a solid start in the minors, the 25-year-old first baseman was called up in late June of that season and hit the ground running. The lefty notched his first hit in his big league debut, and swatted his first home run just a few days later. The rest of the campaign would be a dream for the rookie. The first homer was just a taste of what would come, as Maas and the right field seats became very familiar with one another.
That season, despite appearing in just 79 games, Maas belted 21 homers and hit to the tune of a 150 wRC+. He would set some rookie records, including the fastest rookie (by plate appearances) to get to 10 home runs (a record that has since been broken by a couple other Yankees in Shane Spencer and Gary Sánchez). Despite standing in for the face of the franchise, Maas made a memorable first impression, and it would be hard not to give the rising star an opportunity going forward.
Maas was given just that for the 1991 season, as he appeared in 148 games and racked up nearly 600 plate appearances. Unfortunately for him and the Yanks, he did not reach nearly the same level of success. He did set a new career-high with 23 homers, but did so as a roughly league-average bat, seeing drops in nearly every category as he slashed just .220/.333/.390. Coming off of his electric, albeit brief rookie campaign, Maas was largely disappointing in his sophomore effort. Fairly or not, that would be his last shot at regular plate appearances with the Yankees or elsewhere around the majors.
Between the 1992 and ‘93 seasons, Maas never played more than 98 games, playing roughly a full season in total during that stretch. Once again, the lefty hit 20 home runs in those 158 games, as a league-average bat (98 OPS+). Not that production of this level is necessarily bad, but as a first baseman, and one that is behind the team’s captain on the depth chart, it is not enough to justify regular time on the field.
Maas was released by the Yankees just before the 1994 season, and would take until 1995 to make his way back to the major leagues. He did so with the Twins, in an underwhelming 22 games worth of baseball. It was easily the lowest point of his career in the bigs, as he slashed just .193/.281/.316, and at 30 years old, that was the end of the road for Maas in The Show.
Just five years after Kevin Maas burst on to the scene as an electric replacement for the injured Mattingly, his time on a big league field had come to an end. He came up relatively late, and was unable to repeat his rookie performance — and at a premium offensive position, his time was limited. With that being said, he contributed an exhilarating rookie campaign, as few storylines are as exciting, and Maas provided just that in a particularly grim time for the Yankees.
There is always something to be said for any Major League Baseball career, and that of Maas had moments of real potential and excitement, a real accomplishment on its own.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
If you watched the Kansas City Royals last year, you knew that second base was a problem. Sure, the outfield–held together last year by duck tape, Elmer’s glue, and some gumption–was the biggest problem, but the free agent class of outfielders was rather thin. Acquiring an impact player who played the infield would be easier.
Kansas City was of course connected to (and ended up acquiring) several outfielders, but they were also reported to have been interested in infielders such as CJ Abrams and Brendan Donovan. The pie in the sky perfect fit for the Royals, though, was Bo Bichette. Bichette had hit free agency and had alerted teams that he was comfortable moving to second base. He would cost a lot of money, but a combination of injury history and a lower ceiling limited the average annual value (AAV) that he’d command to some extent.
Or so we all thought, because Bichette signed three years and $126 million, a whopping $42 million a year, from the New York Mets.
This happened just days after the Los Angeles Dodgers punched the hornet’s nest again by signing Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million contract. There’s some deferred money because of course there is, but it comes out to a present-day AAV of an eye-watering $57.1 million. That’s not all, folks, because the Dodgers’ luxury tax situation means that they’ll end up paying–sit down if you’re not already–$119.9 million annually for the privilege of having Tucker roam the outfield.
While the Tucker deal is absurd, there’s usually one of those every year. Last year it was Juan Soto. The year before that it was Shohei Ohtani. The year before that it was Aaron Judge. Small market teams simply cannot devote the average of $40 million a year (or more!) it takes to secure the biggest names on the market.
The Bichette types, on the other hand, have been a theoretically obtainable asset, because small market teams can pay $25-$30 million a year for a difference maker. We don’t even have to look to other teams; the traditionally stingy Royals did so to extend Bobby Witt Jr. And at the start of free agency, Bichette was projected to be in that $25-$30 million a year range over six to eight or so seasons. The Phillies ended up offering seven years and $200 million, which Bichette declined. But at $42 million AAV? No matter if it’s for fewer years, that functionally places guys like Bichette outside the possibility for 80% of the league.
Nobody should fault Tucker or Bichette for taking those deals. They’re interesting deals where both players can have their cake and eat it too, because both players will have the ability to test free agency again after their age-30 seasons.
Likewise, nobody should fault the Dodgers or the Mets for doing what they did either, and for the spending sprees that they have done. In fact, more teams should be more like them. The biggest reason why the Dodgers can spend so much money is that they pull in gigantic amounts of revenue. As far as the Mets, well, Steve Cohen is the richest owner in Major League Baseball by a substantial amount, and they also happen to play in, you know, New York City. Both teams spend because they have the money, in other words.
I think you can absolutely blame teams for not spending to their best ability. Some owners are notoriously cheap (cough Pittsburgh cough) and cry poor all the time, hoping that we trust them even though they refuse to open their books. But this doesn’t solve the core problem at hand: that some teams make orders of magnitude more than other teams, and even more equity between the teams does not mean full equity.
To an extent, baseball has always been somewhat like this. But I think this is all building to a head. The Dodgers’ continued dominance has brought out the flaws of a system that does not distribute wealth. Baseball relies on so many players and, unlike football or basketball or hockey, you cannot build an entire team around a star player at a key position. What should be happening is that the turnaround time for down-on-their-luck teams should be short, and that anybody can win the championship.
That is not the case. MLB has become a pay-to-play league; over the last decade of the World Series, the median participant–median, mind you–had the fifth-highest payroll of their season. A full 80% of participants ranked in the top 10 of payroll. Nobody in the bottom third of MLB payroll has won a World Series since the Florida Marlins in 2003.
Yes, an unremarkable squad can go on a cheeky little run and maybe play in a league championship series. Yes, small market or cheap teams can knock off large market, big-pocketed teams in the postseason. Yes, you can make the playoffs on a shoestring budget.
But I don’t think it’s very interesting that teams with lots of money are the ones snapping up all the best free agents and are the ones duking it out to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy. I think it’s stunting the growth of the league when there are only so many landing spots for the big players. And if players like Bichette and Tucker are going to take shorter deals to take them even further from the realm of possibility for even middle class teams, well, it sure seems that we’re tumbling forward into a work stoppage that, while unfortunate, might just need to happen to land on a solution that’s not the status quo.
The tippy top of these lists are very outfield heavy, with Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, Eduardo Quintero, and Mike Sirota dominating the top four spots. De Paula and Hope were all over top-100 prospects lists MLB-wide last year and will be again this year. We’ll dive more into MLB top-100 lists later this week as those begin to drop.
Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs each had De Paula the top Dodgers prospect followed by Hope and Quintero, in that order. Baseball America went with Quintero at the top followed by De Paula, Sirota, then Hope as their top four.
“Ultimately I found Quintero to be the most well-rounded player, and the most likely to stick in center field,” Josh Norris said on a Baseball America podcast last week. “Mike Sirota had the injury that he had, and I want to see what he looks like when he comes back.”
“He’s a guy who’s going to shoot up these rankings because of the swing, potential for growth in the swing, potential for growth in the body, the all-around skillset,” Norris said of Quintero. “He doesn’t have a 70 on the card [on the 20-80 scouting scale] like some of the other guys, but he’s got a lot of 55s and doesn’t have any 40s either.”
In addition to those top-four outfielders, three more prospects were ranked in the top 10 of the Dodgers system by all three of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs — shortstop Emil Morales, who ended last season in Class-A Rancho Cucamonga and turned 19 in September; infielder Alex Freeland, who made his major league debut with Los Angeles in 2025; and outfielder Charles Davalan, who was drafted out of Arkansas in July with the No. 41-overall pick, which was also acquired in the Lux trade.
In all, a total of 17 prospects were ranked in the top 10 of the Dodgers system in at least one of these lists.
