Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jared Koenig (47) pitches during the sixth inning of the National League Championship Series game against the Los Angeles Dodgers October 13, 2025 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
There was a time, not so long ago, when bullpen roles felt rigid. The setup man handled the eighth. The closer handled the ninth. Everyone else filled in the gaps and tried not to make a mess of things. But if there’s one quiet constant of Brewers baseball over the last several years, it’s this: they’ve understood the value of the multi-inning reliever better than most.
This isn’t some trendy, Rays-style opener experiment. It’s more practical than that. The Brewers have consistently built bullpens that don’t just survive when a starter exits in the fifth inning; they stabilize the game. And that stability often comes from the guy who throws the sixth and seventh instead of just one clean inning with the bases empty.
Modern starting pitching just doesn’t last the way it used to. Even good starters are carefully managed the third time through the order. Injuries pile up. Pitch counts climb. October-style urgency seeps into random Tuesday nights in June. If your bullpen is constructed entirely of one-inning specialists, you’re asking for burnout by August.
The Brewers have largely avoided that trap.
Think back to how they’ve deployed arms over the past several seasons. Whether it was a converted starter finding new life in relief or a swingman shuttling between roles, Milwaukee has consistently found ways to squeeze two or three innings out of pitchers who might be pigeonholed elsewhere. When a starter exits after four innings, it’s not a scramble. It’s often a bridge.
And that bridge matters more than the ninth inning sometimes.
We spend a lot of time talking about closers, and understandably so. High-leverage outs are dramatic. But the highest leverage point in a game frequently arrives in the sixth with two on and one out, not the ninth with the bases empty. The Brewers have shown a willingness to let their better non-closer arms handle those spots and keep going if they’re efficient. That’s not old-school long relief. That’s targeted aggression.
It also protects the bullpen as a whole. If one reliever can give you 2 1/3 clean innings on 28 pitches, that’s two other arms who get a full day off. Over 162 games, those saved bullets add up. Milwaukee’s ability to keep its late-inning arms fresh deep into seasons hasn’t been accidental. The approach fits the organization’s broader identity.
The Brewers are rarely the team with the deepest rotation on paper. They don’t wade into the top tier of free agency for 200-inning workhorses — just look at them trading aces like Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta before they inevitably lose them to free agency.
Instead, they build layers of pitching. Optionable depth. Pitchers with starter backgrounds who can slide into relief. Relievers who can stretch beyond the standard three outs if the matchup and pitch count allow it.
It’s flexible, and flexibility is currency in today’s game.
There’s also a developmental angle here. Milwaukee has long shown a knack for identifying pitchers with one or two standout traits and maximizing them. A fastball with unusual ride. A breaking ball with elite spin. In shorter bursts, those traits can dominate. But when those pitchers prove capable of turning a lineup over once without losing effectiveness, the Brewers don’t rush to cap them at a single inning. They experiment. They stretch them to 30 or 40 pitches. They see what happens.
Often, what happens is that the middle innings stop being a liability.
That might not show up in the save column, but it shows up in win expectancy. It shows up in series wins where the bullpen doesn’t feel fried by Sunday afternoon. It shows up in September when key relievers still have life on their fastballs.
If you want some easy current examples, look at Aaron Ashby and Jared Koenig, not to mention the now-departed Tobias Myers, all of whom filled that role at different points in 2025.
None of this means the Brewers have reinvented bullpen strategy. Plenty of teams deploy multi-inning arms. But Milwaukee has made it a habit rather than a contingency plan. When things go sideways early, they don’t panic. They patch the game together with purpose.
In a division that rarely offers much margin for error, that matters.
The art of the multi-inning reliever isn’t flashy. It won’t generate jersey sales. But it’s one of the reasons the Brewers so often feel competitive even when a game starts tilting in the wrong direction. They don’t just chase the final three outs. They control the gray area in the middle, and more often than not, that’s where games are actually decided.
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 11: Ranger Suárez #55 of the Boston Red Sox speaks to the media during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 11, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season. I’ve put the team’s starting options into tiers because that’s how my brain works. Don’t think of them as rankings, but rather buckets based on some similarities I see.
This next tier consists of Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray, the two guys who are getting paid a lot of money to be in the Red Sox rotation. Suarez is entering his eighth season, while Gray is entering his 14th. While labeling guys as “a decent two” or “a three for a playoff team” is a silly endeavor in my opinion, these guys will likely start on the second and third day of the season.
Ranger Suárez
2025 in a sentence: Suarez started the season on the IL, but was rock solid once he got back on the field in May.
Ranger Suarez has been remarkably consistent over the past four seasons. He’s averaging 26 starts, 147 innings, and a 3.59 ERA over that span. 2026 will be his first season with a team not named the Philadelphia Phillies, but you can expect more of the same from Suarez.
For Suarez, it’s all about command. He’s going to be really tough on lefties and won’t see many of them as a result. He pounds the inside part of the plate with sinkers and four-seamers, before turning to his curveball and slider out of the zone to put hitters away. The curveball is particularly effective at getting hitters to expand the zone; the chase rate on the pitch over the last three seasons is nearly 50%. He’ll also mix in his changeup with two strikes, though the Red Sox have generally avoided same-handed changeups. It’s been incredibly effective in small samples, though, so they might allow him to keep that arrow in his quiver.
On the other side, it’s a much more even mix, with each of his five pitches accounting for 15% and 25% of his offerings. His sinker still leads the way and gets early strikes, but the contact against it from righties is better than lefties, while his cutter is a reliable strike-getter early in at-bats as well and avoids hard contact. A kind of fun, or at least fun to me, testament to his command is that only two non-four-seam pitches generated a higher percentage of foul balls than Suarez’s cutter (27.7%). Because he doesn’t use the pitch in two-strike counts very often, those are almost entirely productive pitches.
While Suarez will throw any pitch in any count, he turns to his changeup and curveball most often as his strikeout pitches against righties. The changeup is incredibly effective with a two-strike chase rate of 43%. The curveball isn’t as devastating, but he avoids mistakes with it and can drop it in the zone for free strikes. He uses the four-seam at the top of the zone as well, and it’s outperformed what one might expect given the shape over the past three seasons, with putaway rates over 20% thanks to impeccable command.
Suarez has his approach, and when he executes, he’s as good as anyone. He’s slated to pitch in the World Baseball Classic for Venezuela, which will give us a good look at any tweaks he made to his arsenal over the offseason. It’d be nice to see him gain a tick or two of velocity as well. He was at about 93 mph just two years ago, but a sudden drop has him sitting closer to 90 mph today. Suarez is your favorite pitcher’s favorite pitcher and has shown the ability to survive without premium velocity. I’d expect more of the same from him in 2026.
2025 in a sentence: Gray’s season line was marred by a number of blow-up outings, but the underlying numbers paint a better picture.
Sonny Gray had five games with six or more earned runs allowed last season. I hate excluding games from a line because they all count, but I feel comfortable calling that a fluke. His 26.7% strikeout rate was among the best in baseball, as was his 5% walk rate.
Gray had reverse splits in 2025, but is roughly platoon-neutral for his career. He used six different pitches in 2025, with significant differences against each side of the plate. Early in at-bats, righties primarily saw sinkers and cutters, with occasional curveballs dropped in for called strikes. With two strikes, he went to his sweeper. Gray called himself one of the best spinners in the league, and his sweeper supports that. Against righties, nearly one in every four pitches resulted in a whiff. They also swung at over 50% of the sweepers he threw out of the zone. He pairs it with a backdoor sinker that freezes hitters as they give up on the pitch, expecting it to spin off the plate.
Against lefties, Gray used more four-seam fastballs and curveballs early in counts. Each pitch had a strike rate over 65%, but the ideal contact rate against each was on the high side, though opponents hit the ball on the ground frequently. A changeup accounted for 15% of his pitches to lefties, primarily early in at-bats, but a 55% strike rate and 43% ideal contact rate make it a candidate to be replaced by something else. His cutter and sinker each earned strikes at a high rate in a small sample, but were also hit hard. With two strikes, his sweeper was again the star, getting whiffs on 26% of pitches, as well as a huge chase rate (48.7%). The contact quality from lefties is somewhat of a concern, but his ability to miss bats compensates for it.
I mentioned blow-up outings, and home runs were the culprit for many of them. He allowed 25 on the season, though his 22.7% home run per fly ball rate should come down closer to league average. Overall, for Gray, I’d expect his splits to flip, with righties having a more difficult time than lefties, based on his ability to pitch to the glove side. RedSoxStats on Twitter pointed out that over the last two seasons, most of his hard contact allowed has come to right center field, where the Red Sox have two Gold Glove outfielders stationed on a nightly basis.
Oct 3, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, Canada; New York Yankees pitcher Luke Weaver (30) throws the ball during workouts at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
This post is part of a series of daily questions that we’ll ask the community here at Amazin’ Avenue throughout the month of February. We hope you find the questions engaging and that our prompts can spark some fun conversations in the comments. We’ll see you there and plan to have staff chiming in, too.
PARKLAND, FL - JANUARY 24: Jesús Luzardo instructs participants during youth baseball clinic at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on Saturday, January 24, 2026 in Parkland, Florida. (Photo by Lucas Casel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The bats are cracking. The gloves are popping. The fans are arguing over uniforms. Brandon Marsh’s hair is wet. Baseball has arrived.
On to the links.
Phillies news:
Jesús Luzardo faced live hitters for the first time this spring yesterday, and he put on a show.
BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 25: Jordan Westburg #11 of the Baltimore Orioles runs back to dug out between innings during a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at the Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 25, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Hello, friends.
There are now 35 days remaining until Orioles Opening Day. That’s just five weeks away. Something vaguely resembling an Orioles game will be available on your television or other streaming device tomorrow with the opening of the Grapefruit League schedule.
This also means that today is the last day that there will just be general spring workouts that are not in some way oriented towards a game. For all of the focus on spring training being a time to iron out fundamentals and what not, there’s really only a handful of days after the full squad has reported before games start up and it becomes less about drills and more about game readiness.
The only thing that can come from these early days is bad news, probably news of the injury variety. I’m still looking to get something more specific about what’s going on with Jordan Westburg’s sore oblique. Mike Elias’s “surprise offseason injury” update from the start of camp implied that Westburg would miss only the first few exhibition games and that’s it, but Westburg’s self-assessment a couple of days later was vague and not supportive of that initial claim, with not even an aspirational timeline to when he might return.
My rule about baseball injury news is that vague is frequently eventually bad news that nobody wants to say right now. I hope that doesn’t prove to be the case with Westburg’s oblique as well. Specific news can also be bad, of course. You just know how specifically bad it is rather than having to wonder. Again, the games start tomorrow. I think they should have offered a firm date for his first game by now, and until they do that I’ll be at least a little bit concerned that they haven’t said one because there isn’t one.
Just last spring we saw Gunnar Henderson’s sore oblique drag out almost through the whole of spring training, with the Orioles perpetually acting like Henderson could be back in two or three more days. That didn’t do anybody any favors, especially when they rushed him back into action at the tail end of the recovery. If that is how it goes with Westburg, I hope they’ve learned their lesson. But I also hope that’s not how it goes with Westburg.
Jeremiah Jackson on making an impression with Orioles: ‘Every day is a job interview’ (Baltimore Baseball) Although he made a nice impression last year, it does seem like Jackson is going to have to fight for a roster spot even after the Jackson Holliday injury, and possibly even also if Westburg’s situation develops worse than they’ve revealed so far. I just don’t know if the Orioles will trust him to play an infield position.
OOPSY 2026 top 100 prospects (FanGraphs) I’m pretty much only posting this because my guy Aron Estrada checks in at #31 on the top 100. Obviously, that makes this the best top 100 prospect list that anyone has put out yet this year.
Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries
Nothing of particular note is recorded for this day in Orioles history. That probably won’t change this year unless there’s some bad news.
Of all the players to ever play for the Orioles, not a single one was born on this day.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! You may not have any Orioles birthday buddies for today, but you do have these: astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus (1473), author Carson McCullers (1917), musician Smokey Robinson (1940), actor and movie maker Benicio del Toro (1967), singer-songwriter Chappell Roan (1998), and actress Millie Bobby Brown (2004).
On this day in history…
In 1674, the English and Dutch signed the Treaty of Westminster, which ended the Third Anglo-Dutch War. Relevant to today’s United States, the treaty transferred ownership of the Dutch colony of New Amsterdam to England, which renamed the area to New York.
In 1847, rescuers reached the stranded Donner Party in a pass in modern-day California. The group is now infamous for its survivors resorting to cannibalism to survive.
In 1942, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066, which led to the internment of Japanese Americans into camps for the duration of World War II.
A random Orioles trivia question
I received a random book of Orioles trivia for Christmas. Each time it’s my turn in this space, I’ll post a question from the book until I either run out of questions or forget. The book has multiple choice answers, but that would be too easy for everyone here. Here’s today’s question:
Who slugged 31 home runs in 2002 to lead the Orioles that season?
The answer to Sunday’s question about the all-time Orioles triples leader, which stumped many who guessed, is Brooks Robinson. If you are guessing early in the day, please be considerate and place your answer behind spoiler text so that people arriving later can still have a fresh opportunity to guess.
**
And that’s the way it is in Birdland on February 19. Have a safe Thursday.
Jun 2, 2025; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels relief pitcher Hunter Elliott (26) pitches during the ninth inning against the Murray State Racers. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
As the adage about the baseball’s simplicity goes, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball, you win all your games, and you go undefeated.
The 2026 Ole Miss baseball team did most of those things in their wins over Nevada (3), Arkansas State (1), and Jackson State (1), which was a fine start to the season. Obviously, the level of competition is not what it will be during their trip to Houston at the end of this month and once they get to March, but ain’t nothing wrong with any level of TCB in the early non-conference slate.
So let’s look at some of the key stats produced in the first week, keeping in mind some are not sustainable and at least one needs to get fixed ASAP or it will cost them meaningful games.
Run Differential
Ole Miss is sitting at a cool +39 (54-15) , with two of their wins achieving a 7-inning run rule. Of note, the Rebels trailed Arkansas State 6-4 after 5 innings and rallied to win 7-6, and their lowest run output was 5 runs in the second game against Nevada.
It’s encouraging to not see a grotesque 3 runs or under game, an offense that can score when they’re not at their best, and a pitching staff that isn’t bleeding out late in games.
At the Plate
These are acceptable (ACCEPTABLE) team numbers:
.488 on-base percentage
.588 slugging percentage
10 dingers*
39 walks to 37 strikeouts
19 total extra-base hits
*4 came against Jackson State, which means 6 in the other 4 games.
They get on base and smash the baseball. It’s also encouraging to see more walks than strikeouts, which we would love to see hold steady as the season goes on.
Most importantly, Tristan Bissetta decided his home run celebration will involve giving the Italian pinched fingers gesture to the student section.
On the Mound
Much like the hitting, Ole Miss’ pitching as been on point:
1.15 WHIP
5.5 to 1 strikeout-to-walk ratio
9 earned runs*
2 dingers allowed
11 total extra-base hits
*More on this in a minute!
Like the hitters, they’ve dominated their opponents, and we love to see only 10 total walks. Not making it easy for opposing offenses helps win games while also not driving everyone insane.
In the Field
Granted, I don’t remember specifics, but I’m certain the Joker’s origin story involved him rooting for a college baseball team incapable of doing basic things correctly. Things like fielding a ball cleanly, throwing the ball into a teammate’s glove, and catching a ball thrown to you.
Ole Miss has 9 errors through 5 games. If there is a positive, 5 of those came against Arkansas State, which means 4 errors total in the other 4 games. Still not great!
Last year’s team made 68 errors in 64 games and had a team fielding percentage of .970. This year’s team has a fielding percentage of .949 and is on pace for 115 errors in 64 games
Look, none of us want to become the Joker, but that’s where we’re headed if Ole Miss doesn’t rise to an average fielding team. I don’t know how much a team can transform its fielding incompetence within a season, but if this team wants to have a shot at Omaha, they have to figure out a way to limit the nonsense.
Next Up
vs. Missouri State (Friday)
vs. Missouri State (Saturday)
vs. Missouri State (Sunday)
No word if Bobby Petrino will be on hand to support his former employer.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 15: Trent Grisham #12 and Cody Bellinger #35 of the New York Yankees celebrate the win over the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium on April 15, 2025 in the Bronx borough of New York City. All players are wearing the number 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. The New York Yankees defeated the Kansas City Royals 4-2. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The AL East looks like the best division in baseball headed into 2026, and that’s thanks in no small part to the arms race that took place over the winter between the division’s five clubs. The Blue Jays spent big money after winning the AL pennant, the Red Sox made major moves in free agency and the trade market, and even the Orioles made splashes, swinging deals for pitching and signing Pete Alonso to a monster deal (the Rays, well, remain the Rays).
The Yankees, for as much guff as they’ve taken for their Run it Back strategy, had a somewhat active winter, even if most of their activity meant retaining players that were on the 2025 roster. All the bustle of the offseason got me wondering: of all the players acquired by AL East teams over the offseason, which one will be the best in 2026?
For the purpose of this exercise, any player that wasn’t on an AL East team’s roster once the World Series ended counts as an acquisition, which means that Cody Bellinger counts as a signing for the Yankees even though he was on the team in 2025, as does Shane Bieber for the Blue Jays, for example.
It could be Dylan Cease, who inked a seven-year deal with Toronto, or one of the Blue Jays’ other signings, such as Cody Ponce or Kazuma Okamoto. It could be any of Boston’s trade acquisitions, from Sonny Gray to Willson Contreras, or even Caleb Durbin, not to mention free-agent starter Ranger Suárez. The O’s added Alonso, as well as hard-thrower Shane Baz, outfielder Taylor Ward, and veteran Chris Bassitt. The Yankees, for their part, re-signed Bellinger and Trent Grisham, and added talented left-hander Ryan Weathers, among others. Will one of them be the best player that came on this offseason?
Another way to phrase this question: which of the players signed or traded in the division will prove to be most significant in 2026? Let us know what you think in the comments below.
This morning, Josh will discuss the Anthony Volpe Situation, and Maximo will celebrate catcher Chris Stewart as part of our Yankee Birthday series. Also, Peter previews Luis Gil’s 2026 campaign, and for the last post of our Yankees Free Agency series, Matt writes up the Max Fried signing, the most recent mega contract the Yankees have handed out.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 20: Luke Keaschall #15 of the Minnesota Twins hits a double against the Cleveland Guardians in the second inning of the game at Target Field on September 20, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Spring training games start this weekend which means we’re one step closer to baseball being back! As always, regular players will be slowly ramped up (pitchers especially), meaning it will be a few weeks before we see a game that looks more like a regular season game, but we’ll also get plenty of chances to see players get new opportunities in the meantime.
One the one hand, it’s always nice to see the stars like Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan back in action (though no longer Pablo Lopez. Get better soon, bud). On the other, Spring Training is also a great chance for fans to get a sample of top prospects.
The Twins have four of their five top prospects (Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Connor Prielipp) in big league camp. With the WBC picking up later this Spring, all four of those players should get some extended run against MLB competition when Buxton, Ryan, Taj Bradley, and others leave to compete for their home countries.
I’m also very excited to see younger regulars like Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis. A lot of the Twins’ success or failure will depend specifically on the offensive development of those two players. Spring Training stats are meaningless, but I want to see if either player has finally progressed to the point that they can be more patient and selective on the pitches they attack.
BRADENTON, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 18: Ryan O'Hearn #29 of the Pittsburgh Pirates poses for a portrait during the 2026 Pittsburgh Pirates Photo Day at LECOM Park on February 18, 2026 in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Pittsburgh Pirates core of infielders has some exciting pop but could be considered a unit that is incomplete overall.
For the last couple of seasons, the Pirates have struggled to find an everyday first baseman. The acquisition for Spencer Horwitz in December of 2024 was met with some critical feedback, as the Pirates gave up pitcher Luis Ortiz in the trade for a player who was going to require wrist surgery and not be ready for the beginning of the season. Although he still has a lot to prove, the Pirates have already won the Horwtiz trade. Ortiz had great potential but may never play again after being indicted for rigging pitches, and Horwitz performed well as the Buccos first baseman in 2025 once he was cleared medically to play.
Ryan O’Hearn figures to have a prominent role at first as well, but with the way the team is currently constructed, it seems that he may be playing more in the outfield than originally envisioned. In MLB.com’s list of projected Opening Day lineups, O’Hearn was slated to play left field while Horwitz was at first base. Marcell Ozuna could also see time at first when he’s not serving as the team’s designated hitter, adding additional power to this spot in the lineup. This is the first time this position has had this kind of depth since Carlos Santana was with the team.
Second base also looks like a spot that is pretty cut and clear personnel wise. The Pirates went out and got Brandon Lowe in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and immediately upgraded the position far beyond the caliber that they’ve had arguably since Neil Walker was with the club. Lowe was an All-Star in 2025 who had 31 homers and 83 RBIs with a slash line of .256/.307/.784 with a slugging percentage of .477 as well. Lowe was ranked as the seventh best second baseman in baseball heading into this year.
Shortstop is a position that has some question marks surrounding it because of the possibility that top prospect Konnor Griffin could be occupying that spot. Griffin is the unanimous top prospect in baseball right now and is already turning heads in Bradenton as a non-roster invitee to big league Spring Training. However, the Pirates have been notoriously slow with rookies, especially with ones that they want to maintain team control over, so it’s anyone’s guess as to when Griffin will actually start his career in Pittsburgh.
If not Griffin on Opening Day, the team will look to Nick Gonzales to take the reins at shortstop. Gonzales spent a majority of his 2025 season at second base, but made the move over after Isiah Kiner-Falefa was claimed off waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays. With that being said Gonzales has spent enough time at short in the past and is more than a capable defender at the position. While Gonzales is not the weakest link in the Pirates’ lineup as an infielder, he certainly does not have the same pop as his counterparts on the other side of the field. Gonzales had an average year at the plate in 2025, but has not to this point looked like the top hitter he was at New Mexico State.
Name your favorite under-the-radar signing/trade from this offseason
Currently, the lone option the Buccos have at third base is long time utility man Jared Triolo. The former Gold Glove Award winner is a great defender who can play virtually anywhere on the field, but will likely spend most of his time at third in 2026 given the lack of other players that can fill that role. The Pittsburgh Post Gazette’s, Jason Mackey, told 93.7 The Fan Pittsburgh that the Pirates’ search for another third baseman continues but has cooled since entering Spring Training.
Triolo is more than capable of being the team’s everyday third baseman for the entirety of the season, but he is by far the worst hitter from this infield group. With that being said his defensive prowess outshines anyone on the entire team so his presence should not be viewed as a negative. More consistency in the lineup could be beneficial to Triolo looking to take the next step in his career offensively.
Overall this infield group has some nice pieces, but is not without its question marks. The lack of depth at third base could become an issue if Triolo goes down with an injury but this is still a group that should be able to contribute heavily to a lineup that is in dire need of more offense. Look for this group as a whole to take a big leap forward in 2026.
It’s that time. Speculation time. Spring Training brings enough preseason hype to stir some flashy expectations ahead of a new season.
We’re a month and a week from Opening Day. Time’s flying. The offseason did too.
This Phillies club has a steady floor, but there are still questions about how sustainable it is. There’s new blood on the roster, new deals with core players, and clear areas that need to improve if they’re going to get over the hump — which means there’s room for a few pleasant surprises.
Like the following.
Bryce Harper puts together a 35-plus homer campaign
He’s the hottest topic, so let him take it away. The two-time MVP has that look in his eye. The Phillies have unfinished business and he’s aware of it, having been at the forefront of four straight postseason runs.
The number might feel lofty considering Harper hasn’t hit that mark since 2021. A lot of that traces back to health, and he seems to be in a great spot entering the season. The Phillies are going to do all they can to protect his bat in the lineup.
After not seeing as many pitches in the zone in 2025, Harper can stay patient, hunt hittable pitches and punish mistakes. Don’t be surprised if we get three or four multi-homer games if he’s pushing 35. His odds to hit 40 are just over 5-1, so even that’s not completely out of the picture.
Harper might even go light up the World Baseball Classic as a precursor to a resurgent — if that’s the appropriate term — 2026.
Justin Crawford wins Rookie of the Year
The award feels wide open. There’s no clear-cut favorite, which opens the door for Crawford.
If he’s the everyday center fielder, he’ll have the chance to compile all year — extra-base hits, RBIs and stolen bases. Based on early reports out of Clearwater, he seems like one of those composed rookies — like Steven Kwan in 2022 — who can contribute from the jump.
Yes, he’s stepping into a big market with a passionate fan base, but he’ll be protected from the No. 9 hole (his expected spot) by All-Star-caliber hitters in Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber.
His ability to hit same-side pitching throughout the minors — plus what happens when he puts the ball in play — gives him a real shot to be one of the more exciting young outfielders in baseball. A .290 average, 35 XBH and 30 steals would likely be enough for the award.
Speed still kills — just ask his father, Carl — and that, paired with his old-fashioned contact ability, makes him an interesting pick at 15-1 odds to take home the hardware.
Aidan Miller becomes an everyday infielder post-All-Star break
“Youth infusion,” just like manager Rob Thomson has preached.
The 21-year-old, bouncing around the infield in Spring Training, is going to put the Phillies in a tough spot all year long. Over the last two months of his 2025 season, Miller posted OPS’ over 1.000 in each month. His speed and base-running aggressiveness took a jump too, swiping 59 bases a year after tallying just 23.
He could cut down on the swing-and-miss, but that’s more of a big-league critique. The Phillies know what they have in the former first-rounder and they don’t want to rush his progression. But if he’s at Triple-A to begin the season, his presence alone will light a metaphorical fire under Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott the entire season.
Sure, that can be a positive for those former “Daycare” members. But it’s more likely that Miller’s success at the minor league level becomes so overwhelming that he forces his way up — even if it means Harper heads back to the outfield, which is very unlikely.
Sep 27, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton (25) reacts to his home run during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park (Bill Streicher – Imagn Images)
Phillies land Byron Buxton at the trade deadline
It’s been a name floating around for years, and the Phillies and Minnesota were a match not once, but twice last season. They made deals for Harrison Bader and Jhoan Duran.
The Phillies could still use another right-handed force who can impact the middle of the order with power. Adolis García might provide that jolt, but if it’s not his 2022-23 form, Dave Dombrowski could get antsy in a playoff push and swing a deal for Buxton.
Minnesota will easily be one of the worst teams in the game. They recently lost one of their top starters in Pablo López to a potentially season-ending injury. They’re coming off a 70-win 2025 season. It’s not looking promising.
Buxton was the lone bright spot offensively. He slugged a career-high 35 homers, drove in 83 runs and posted an .878 OPS. He earned his first Silver Sluggers honors in his 11th big league season. He even stole 24 bases without being caught — the only player with at least 15 steals without a caught stealing. Add in plus defense, and you’ve got a player who fits a winning club in a lot of ways.
The Phillies may not have a direct need in the outfield right now, but this is an upgrade anywhere. Ultimately, this might become less bold as the season progresses.
Aaron Nola notches 200 innings and posts a sub-3.50 ERA
Surprisingly, the 32-year-old has only paired those two together once in his 11-year career.
The World Baseball Classic — and the ramp-up for it — could be beneficial to Nola. He dealt with injuries last season, but don’t forget he got Cy Young votes the year prior.
Pitchers who lose a tick or two often need time to adjust — not necessarily reinvent themselves, but find a consistent new way to get outs. In Nola’s case, the velocity should return close to normal with a healthy camp. While Zack Wheeler will likely still be more than effective when he returns, Nola is the arm in the rotation there isn’t much buzz around right now.
If Nola can even make 30 starts, that’s a massive plus. And his ability to keep hitters off balance could help him return to true form. The Phillies could really use it, especially with Taijuan Walker’s uncertainty and a rookie fifth starter in Andrew Painter.
Phillies lead the league in bullpen ERA
This gets bold when you understand the history behind it. 50 years ago — 1976 — is the last time they pulled off this feat, and it’d be the first time since 2008 that they’d lead the National League.
It’s a strong group. Brad Keller and Jhoan Duran are arguably the best eighth-and-ninth inning combo in baseball. But it’s the depth bridging to those final two innings that gives them a real shot.
Tanner Banks, José Alvarado and Orion Kerkering could all realistically register below-3 ERAs, but the real swing factor is the complementary relievers fighting for spots.
While not guarantees to make the Opening Day roster right now, right-hander Jonathan Bowlan — acquired for Matt Strahm — and Kyle Backhus are two names with big league experience who, with some fine-tuning, could get meaningful outs.
Look out for this bullpen. It’s the biggest area of improvement from last year’s club heading into the season.
Despite multiple additions early in Spring Training, the San Diego Padres took a step back in 2026 projections according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). In January, the numbers projected significant steps back for multiple players on the team but the lack of adding any higher tier talent seems to have negatively affected how the analytics view the Padres for the upcoming season.
At this point, FanGraphs projects a 79-83 record and fourth place finish in the NL West for the Friars. PECOTA is only slightly better at 80-82. While noting the loss of Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish and Robert Suarez, the poor projections for the remaining team from last year drags down any possible upside their additions could give the rankings.
Last season’s lack of power continues
The only player projected to have a better season than last year is Jackson Merrill. Every other position player is worse or about the same in assessing their performance. While projecting Luis Campusano, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song and Bryce Johnson as the bench players, none of them have an fWAR above 0.8.
Miguel Andujar is the platoon partner for Gavin Sheets or the DH and his fWAR is 0.6. No Padre position player has an fWAR above 5.4 (Fernando Tatis Jr.) while many are between 0.5 and 1.5. Tatis Jr. is projected to lead the team with 30 homers.
Pitching woes
The starting pitchers fair no better. Michael King will only get 161 innings with a 3.68 ERA. Nick Pivetta takes a big step back with a 3.92 ERA and Joe Musgrove gets a 3.89 ERA projection. There is no belief in Randy Vasquez at 4.79 and Germán Márquez is the projected fifth starter with a 5.03 ERA.
The bullpen also gets very little love with lefty Adrian Morejon, who is widely considered a top reliever and was recently listed by MLB Network as a top 10 reliever in baseball, given an fWAR of 1.1 and a 3.40 ERA. Only Mason Miller gets any respect with a 2.44 ERA and fWAR of 2.3.
Playoff miss
The Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics and Cincinnati Reds are all listed as having better odds of making the playoffs than the Padres. With the Dodgers listed at 94% to win the division and 99% to make the playoffs, the Padres come in at 1.2% to win the division and 22.1% to make the playoffs.
The San Francisco Giants come in at 37.4% to make the playoffs and the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 32% to make the playoffs. The Padres got the benefit of the doubt for much of the offseason with multiple projections listing them as the second or third best team in the NL West. That is no longer the case.
The only way to get national respect for this team in 2026 was if A.J. Preller agreed with the media around the league and traded away Tatis Jr. in order to acquire a power bat and top-tier starter. Trading the organization’s best player doesn’t seem like a good way to improve a team that finished with 90 wins last season. Preller made it clear early on that was not an option and he recently stated that shedding salary was not a priority.
Adding in the margins
While Preller has backloaded the team with starters returning from injury to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, Randy Vasquez is facing a pivotal season in his career. Vasquez is out of options and must make the staff or be off-loaded at the end of spring. Reports from pitching coach Ruben Niebla and manager Craig Stammen has reflected that Vasquez has made the effort to take that step forward and has held onto the advances made at the end of last season.
The bats added, Castellanos and Andujar as 1B/DH options and Ty France as more of a defensive option, don’t deliver the power that fans had hoped. This puts the burden on the current roster to step up their game.
Heart and character matter
None of this goes into the projections seen on FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. They use algorithms and underlying metrics as well as aging statistics to determine their estimates. As fans who watch this team and know the players character and motivation, we can argue the numbers listed in these projections are devoid of the determination that we know these players exhibit.
Will the heart and character of the players play a role in helping the Padres outperform these numbers?
Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado can’t avoid the inevitability of aging. But not every player ages the same way and there are plenty of examples of good performances well into some athletes 30s. It is true that neither of them will play their pivotal positions for much longer, but the math used for these numbers doesn’t take into account the uniqueness of each player.
Proving them wrong
If just a few of the players play to the same level they did last season; if Tatis Jr. finds more power and Merrill stays healthy and takes another step forward; if Machado and Bogaerts stay relatively healthy and don’t regress as much as expected; then the offense should be fine. No matter if Andujar and Castellano aren’t big power hitters, both are improvements over Jason Heyward and Yuli Gurriel.
The Padres won’t have as many singles with Luis Arraez gone but Tatis Jr. will have better lineup protection with Merrill (or Bogaerts?) hitting behind him. The bottom of the lineup has little power as it presently stands unless Castellanos breaks out, Gavin Sheets plays above last year or another bat is added. But all of these issues were much worse last year and somehow this team finished three games behind the Dodgers.
Preller may not be done, there is lots of time left for more moves and still plenty of decent players looking for jobs. The trade market will still be busy for another few weeks and I don’t know that we have ever seen Preller go a whole offseason without a trade.
With just a little luck, maybe the Padres can surprise some people. A snake-in-the-grass isn’t always a bad thing.
May 14, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Colin Rea (48) holds a PitchCom during the first inning of their game against the Kansas City Royals at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images
It’s Wednesday night here at BCB After Dark: the coolest club for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. We’re so glad you decided to stop by tonight. It’s always good to see a friendly face. There’s no cover charge. If you have anything to check, let us know. The hostess will seat you know. Bring your own beverage.
BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.
Last night I asked you to pick your favorite bobblehead among the Cubs promotional giveaways in 2026. It came as no surprise to me that the Ryne Sandberg bobblehead was your favorite with 34 percent of the vote. It’s probably not a surprise either that the Ron Santo version finished second with 20 percent.
Sorry there’s a guy in a Brewers uniform up there. But it’s Colin Rea, so you know it’s one of the good guys.
Here’s the part where we talk movies and listen to music and tonight we’re finishing up our BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic. So you don’t want to miss that. But if you do, you can skip ahead to the baseball stuff now.
There’s a new Bill Evans biopic out that I’m sure will land at some small arthouse theater near you before going to streaming where I’m sure 95 percent of us will see it. So in honor of that, I thought I’d play you some Bill Evans. This is arguably Evans’ signature tune “Waltz for Debby.”
So that sets up our final match for the title between Terminator 2 and 2001: A Space Odyssey. But before we get to that, let’s take a look back at the entire tournament.
2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Directed by Stanley Kubrick. Starring Keir Dullea and Gary Lockwood.
And here’s a trailer for the restored re-release of Terminator 2: Judgment Day.
I feel like I should say something about this matchup, but I’ve tried very hard not to put my finger on the scale when I present the polls. In any case, doing so might very well backfire on me, since I’ve made it clear that even though I don’t think it’s a bad film, I didn’t think that Back to the Future had any business being in this tournament and you folks ended up putting it in the final eight. Some of you are going to vote against me just to torment the teacher.
But I will say that T2 is a terrific action/adventure film with heart and humor. It’s not anywhere near my favorite, but there was never any question that it was going to be in the tournament. (Well, never any question after I decided to include it rather than the first The Terminator film, now known as T1.) It’s special effects are top-notch and hold up nicely 35 years later. In fact, the film may be more timely today than it was in 1991 with the menace of artificial intelligence.
2001: A Space Odyssey, on the other hand, was the film that I immediately decided was the number-one seed when we agreed to do a science fiction tournament. This is a film that redefined what a film could be. Even though it’s nearly sixty years old now and had no access to computer graphics, it still looks fantastic today. I get some of the criticism that it’s too artsy and esoteric. But one sign of a great film is when you leave with more questions than you walked in with. When the answer to one question just raises two more. There’s a reason that in the most recent BFI Sight and Sound critics poll of the greatest films of all-time, 2001 finished sixth.
But you get your say now. Which film should win the BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic?
Welcome back to everyone who skips the non-baseball stuff.
The Giants did some big outside-the-box thinking this past winter when they hired Tony Vitello to be their new manager. It was shocking because Vitello had been the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. He had no experience as a professional coach. Heck, he had no experience as a professional player. While it is quite common in football or basketball to hire out of the college ranks, no team in the history of the sport has ever hired a college coach to manage with no previous professional experience.
To be clear, Vitello was a very successful college coach. He took an ordinary mid-table SEC program and turned it into a powerhouse in his seven years as the Volunteers head coach. He won the school’s first College World Series title in 2024. So he knows the game.
But there are real cultural differences between the college and professional ranks in baseball. There were some worried Giants fans this week when, in the first week of Spring Training, Vitello criticized the media for reporting that he had been offered the Giants job before he had a chance to talk with his players at Tennessee. Or, according to him, even make up his mind to take it. Publicly picking a fight with the media is rarely a good call in MLB. Our brothers and sisters at McCovey Chronicles called it “an unforced error.” I’d add that if you can’t go a week without fighting with the relatively-tame Bay Area sports media (at least compared to the national writers and those in New York, Boston, Philly and even Chicago), you may not be ready for the Show.
But Vitello can learn from that and move on. And besides, it’s not even what I’m asking about tonight. Many of the cultural differences between the professional and college game come on the field. We all know about metal bats. But tonight’s topic is pitching or, more specifically, who decides what pitch is thrown? We all know how this works in the majors. The pitcher, catcher and coaching staff come up with a plan before the game, but once the game starts, the catcher puts down a finger (or he used to, more on that in a minute) and the pitcher either shakes him off or throws what the catcher asked for.
But in the college game, the catcher looks over at either the head coach, the pitching coach or someone else designated to relay the signal. The catcher then gets that signal from the coaching staff and signals it to the pitcher. The pitcher then throws that pitch. There isn’t much, if any, “shaking the catcher off.” At least not if the pitcher wants to remain a pitcher for long. You throw what the coaches tell you to throw.
Vitello has been asked about that change in the way pitching works and he said he’s “open” to the idea that MLB pitches should be called from the dugout. (The Athletic sub. req.) To be clear, Vitello hasn’t said he’s going to do it. For one, he’s got one of the best defensive catchers in the game with Patrick Bailey and there may not be any need to take pitch calling duties away from him. He seems to be doing a good enough job on his own. But he’s leaving open the possibility that he may do it sometime in the future, maybe when someone other than Bailey is behind the plate.
The argument for having coaches call the pitches is clear. For one, the coaches have all the charts right in front of them and don’t have to remember them in the heat of an at-bat. (Or check a chart on their wrist.) Also, catchers have a heck of a lot on their plate as it is. Even if you take pitch-calling duties away, they still have to set a target, block pitches, field the position and keep an eye on the pitcher to see if they’re losing their edge. On top of that, this year MLB is adding in that catchers have to be able to decide when to challenge a pitch that’s been called a ball. With a limited number of misses per team, that’s an important task.
(Yes, pitchers are also allowed to challenge a pitch with the ABS system, but I’m guessing that, like in the minors, most teams will forbid their pitchers from challenging a call. The biggest reason is that pitchers have traditionally been bad at it. One reason is that most pitchers think every borderline pitch they throw is a strike.)
The biggest reason against letting coaches call pitches is that it simply isn’t done in the pros. It’s tradition. Of course, there may be an argument that some catchers have a much better feel for their pitchers than the coaches have and can call a better game bases on how that pitcher’s stuff is working that day. I have no doubt that may be true for some catchers, but is it true for every catcher? There’s no way.
To be clear, the linked-to article above notes that the Giants aren’t the only team considering this. The Rockies plan to call some pitches from the dugout this year and if you’re the Rockies, I don’t see how trying something different could hurt. And for the final week of last season, the Marlins called all of their pitches from the dugout and that’s an experiment that they intend to continue this year, although I don’t think they’re planning to do it in every game.
Right now, the biggest barrier to having coaches call pitches is the pitch clock. Relaying signs doesn’t take much time, but it does take some time. And every second counts when you’re trying to avoid getting an automatic ball called. But as I noted above, catchers don’t stick their fingers down anymore, except in rare situations. The PitchCom system is now universally accepted. There’s no reason that coaches couldn’t signal the pitches from the dugout with PitchCom.
Except that there is a reason. It’s against the rules. As it stands now, only on-field personnel are allowed to use the PitchCom. So it’s OK for the shortstop to know what pitch is coming, but the manager is kept in the dark.
But should it be? Should managers be allowed to use the PitchCom system to call pitches? If one of the points of PitchCom is to speed up the game, then having the manager or pitching coach call the pitches from the dugout would probably help. They could get that call in much faster than the catcher, who may have to re-adjust his cup after a foul ball. (OK, they get time out for that. But you get my point)
So should the coaching staff be allowed to call pitches with PitchCom from the dugout? To be clear, no one is saying that a manager has to call pitches from the dugout with the PitchCom system. Only that they be given the opportunity should they choose to. Maybe some managers would call the pitches when a rookie catcher is out there but not when their two-time All-Star is behind the plate. Maybe some coaches would call all the pitches. And maybe some would call none. But putting a PitchCom in the dugout makes it easier and would likely make it smoother for teams that want to.
Thank you for stopping by tonight and all week. It’s good to get together again as baseball gets underway again. Please get home safely. The season starts soon and we want you around for it. Recycle and cans and bottles. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again next week for more BCB After Dark.
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 17: Hurston Waldrep #64 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Well barring a last minute blockbuster trade, it really seems like the Opening Day rotation will look like Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, and the winner of the competition between Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, and perhaps some other options, if they can all make it there healthy. You will note that Sale has had an extensive injury history, Strider is still looking to fully recover from his UCL internal brace surgery, Lopez missed most of last season, and Holmes rehabbed a partial UCL tear this offseason. Projecting productivity and health for those four to last until at least mid-season until we could perhaps see returns from young arms like Schwellenbach, Waldrep, and AJ Smith-Shawver is a risky proposition, though perhaps some farmhands can also play a role, such as top prospects Didier Fuentes, JR Ritchie, Owen Murphy, and others. It is really not good to be this deep into your starting pitching depth in mid-February.
TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 16: New York Yankees Infielder Anthony Volpe (11) listens to instructions during the spring training workout on February 16, 2026 at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
MLB.com | Bryan Hoch: Anthony Volpe will start the season on the IL as he continues to recover from labrum surgery over the offseason. In his first few days in camp though, the Yankee shortstop appears to be in high spirits and has been able to participate in most defensive drills. Volpe started dry swings yesterday, and could potentially start taking live BP within the next couple of days. A minor league rehab assignment (and maybe more!) is still on the way, but there’s at least room for that perpetual spring optimism.
The Athletic | Patrick Mooney & Brendan Kuty ($): The Yankees used to be a premier destination for international free agents coming to MLB from Asia, with multiple successful pursuits of Taiwanese and Japanese stars. They’ve not quite been as successful in recent years, and the org seems to recognize they’re leaving a lot of potential talent on the table. Thus, they’ve brought in Nao Masamoto into their front office, fresh from running an international strategy with the Cubs that helped Chicago land Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga.
New York Post | Greg Joyce: The tumult that the MLBPA has gone through all week after Tony Clark’s resignation certainly hasn’t instilled confidence in the union’s ability to stand up to MLB with labor talks upcoming. Internally though, the players themselves seem to believe in themselves, with Yankee labor rep Austin Wells having a meeting with the team yesterday and doubling down on a message of solidarity and strength.
Deputy director Bruce Meyer was just given the job as head honcho, but all the same, the player reps and eight-man Executive Committee will still drive most of the PA’s decisions, making Wells an outsized leader on the field and off.
MESA, ARIZONA - MARCH 04, 2025: Ben Cowles #79 of the Chicago Cubs takes a lead at second base during the seventh inning of a spring training game against the San Diego Padres at Sloan Park on March 04, 2025 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The Jays have claimed Ben Cowles off waivers from the Cubs. The Cubs DFAed him Sunday. The Jays put Bowden Francis on the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster. Francis is going to be out all season.
Cowles has two options.
He’s a right-handed-hitting infielder, 26 years old. He hasn’t played in the majors yet. Last year he hit .235/.300/.371 with 9 home runs in 128 games in Triple-A
Duane Pesice, at Bleed Cubbie Blue, has a profile on him here.
He’s a lifetime .268/.365/.426 in four seasons of Minor League ball, with 30 home runs and 158 RBI in 1,128 at-bats. Not great, but not too shabby. He could hit 1-15 dingers in The Show, hit .250 or so, walk enough to be .300+ OBP man. He’ll take a bag if he can. Cowles is a slightly-less-effective Nico Hoerner type. He’ll back up or start at short/second in Iowa.
His contact bat helps his cause, but Cowles just doesn’t bring enough to the table to beat out the people in front of him. But he’s a fine platoon partner with Triantos and backup at second and short, and can play third in a pinch.
He was #14 on Baseball America’s top Cubs prospect list last year
Baseball Prospects says:
Prospects TLDR: Cowles’ Double-A stats are a bit of a mirage, but he’s a capable shortstop defender who provides enough offense to consider him a low-impact bench infielder.
It looks like he will be battling Leo Jimenez for the utility infielder role this spring.
