Category: Baseball

The New York Mets (38-53) are back home for one final series before the All-Star break as they host the Kansas City Royals (37-54) for three games at Citi Field. The Mets took two out of three from the Royals in Kansas City last year, and took two out of three the last time these two teams squared off at Citi Field back in 2024. All time, the Mets are 14-16 all-time against the Royals, which includes their World Series loss in 2015.

The Mets earned a hard-fought split with the Braves to complete a 3-5 road trip. It was a tale of two halves of a series for the Mets in the Braves, which started with two losses (-3 loss on Friday and 14-3 on Saturday) that were dominated by the Braves and incredibly sloppy affairs by the Mets. New York rebounded for two one-run victories, 10-9 win on Sunday (a game that, quite frankly, felt like a loss after they allowed six runs in the ninth to almost snatch defeat from the jaws of victory) and 7-6 on Monday in extra innings. The latter was the team’s second victory when trailing after eight innings this year, a feat they accomplished exactly zero times in 2025.

The main focus around the club continues to be the trade market and trade value for some of their best assets. With the team clearly being sellers, the team appears open to business. Trade rumors have been swirling, and every player on an expiring contract seems to be available. The team will almost certainly look for someone to take Freddy Peralta, AJ Minter, and Brooks Raley, while guys like Clay Holmes and Bo Bichette could also draw some interest. It’s unfortunate that the only things we have to look forward to at this juncture of the season are trade returns and draft prospects, but the club appears to be treating the deadline as a chance to retool rather than rebuild, with their eyes set on competing once again in 2027. This will be David Stearns’ chance to at least gain some points in the eyes of the fanbase if he can really nail the returns on the trades he orchestrates.

One of the lone bright spots continues to be Juan Soto, whose three-run homer on Monday gave New York a two-run lead in the ninth (a lead Devin Williams would eventually relinquish before the team jumped ahead for good in the tenth). Soto was voted in as a starter for the NL squad in the upcoming All-Star game. Soto leads all NL players in OPS (.984) and wRC+ (168) and is ninth among hitters with a 3.0 fWAR. He is also ninth in home runs with 19, tied with Shohei Ohtani, whom he will be battling with for NL MVP honors later this year. While so much has gone wrong for New York this season, Soto has continued to perform at his usual incredible pace, even with the early-season injury that kept him out of the lineup for a little bit. In even the worst of seasons, it’s always a joy watching Soto play baseball for your team.

This series is shaping up to be a race to the bottom of the standings, as both the Mets and Royals are in the bottom-five of records in the league and could be competing to help their lottery odds this week. The Mets currently find themselves one game better than the Royals heading into play today. The Royals, like the Mets, enter this series on a two-game winning streak after taking the final two games of their series against the Phillies. Prior to that, they dropped four in a row and eight of their previous nine.

The Royals enter play with a 95 wRC+ as a team, which is 21st in baseball, and a .708 OPS, which is 20th. Meanwhile, their 384 runs scored are 20th in MLB (no doubt that both numbers were aided by their 15-1 outburst against the Phillies yesterday). On the pitching side of things, their rotation sports a 4.52 ERA (23rd in MLB) and a 4.33 FIP (20th). Their bullpen is by far their biggest weakness, as their relievers enter play tonight with a 5.21 ERA (29th), and a 5.15 FIP (30th), so if you can keep the game close heading into the late innings, you stand a good chance against them.

Bobby Witt Jr. remains one of the best players in the league despite the team’s struggles. Witt Jr. enters play today slashing .292/.364/.467 with a 128 wRC+ and a 4.7 fWAR in 85 games. He has 12 home runs to date and also has 30 stolen bases already, which is tops in the American League and second only to Nasim Nuñez of the Nationals in all of baseball. On the other end of the spectrum, veteran Salvador Perez is having a miserable year, hitting .209/.249/.347 with a 59 wRC+ and a -1.3 fWAR in 83 games. The nine-time All-Star and lone holdover from the 2015 World Series-winning club has the worst fWAR among all position players in baseball, as his career may finally be reaching its end.

Tuesday, July 7: TBD vs. Seth Lugo, 7:1o PM EDT on SNY

TBD

The Mets have not named a starter for Tuesday’s game. It’s likely Kodai Senga could factor into the game in some capacity, but he pitched on July 3, so he may not be ready to pitch on Tuesday.

Lugo (2026): 96.1 IP, 76 K, 30 BB, 12 HR, 4.20 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 97 ERA-

Lugo is failed to reach the heights of his 2024 campaign, when he finished second in AL Cy Young voting and 15th in AL MVP voting. Despite that, he’s still been a mostly-solid pitcher for the Royals over the past two years. He’s picked up a loss in each of his last two outings, both against the Rays. His last time out, he allowed three earned runs on nine hits over six innings, and before that he allowed seven earned runs on seven hits over five innings. This is the right-hander’s first start against his old club, whom he last played for in 2022.

Wednesday, July 8: Christian Scott vs. Stephen Kolek, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Scott (2026): 49.0 IP, 60 K, 25 BB, 7 HR, 3.49 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 85 ERA-

Scott was handed his first loss of the year in his last outing, going four innings and giving up three earned runs on two hits to the Braves. He walked four and surrendered two home runs, two things that have plagued him as of late. Specifically, he’s allowed six home runs in his last three starts after allowing just one in his previous eight outings.

Kolek (2026): 54.0 IP, 34 K, 12 BB, 8 HR, 4.50 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 104 ERA-

Kolek got off to a strong start, earning a win in three of his first four starts, including a complete game shutout in his fourth start of the year. He’s fallen on hard times lately, failing to go beyond the second inning in each of his last two starts. His last time out, he returned from the Family Emergency List to pitch two innings. He allowed three earned runs on four hits in the outing as he picked up the loss to the Rays.

Thursday, July 9: Sean Manaea vs. Michael Wacha, 1:10 PM EDT on SNY

Manaea (2026): 68.0 IP, 68 K, 23 BB, 8 HR, 5.16 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 126 ERA-

Manaea got hit pretty hard in his last start, allowing six earned runs over five innings against the Braves. It was tied for the most earned runs he’s allowed in a game this season, and the most he’s given up since getting bumped up to the rotation. It was a discouraging step back after a pretty strong stretch for the left-hander, but with no better options, Manaea will remain in the rotation as the club searches for better outings from their starting pitchers.

Wacha (2026): 114.2 IP, 91 K, 31 BB, 13 HR, 3.45 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 80 ERA-

Wacha is in his 14th major league season and still performing very admirably. The former Met, who is in his third season in Kansas City, leads the AL in innings pitched and has pitched into the sixth in all but two of his 18 starts this year. In his last start, he went six innings and allowed four earned runs on eight hits in a loss to the Phillies. It was the sixth time he’s allowed four earned runs or more this year, and he allowed a season-high three homers after allowing 10 in his previous 17 outings.

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The Boston Red Sox have won three consecutive games and are -125 favorites to extend that streak to four tonight.

My Red Sox vs. White Sox predictions and MLB picks expect Boston's in-form offense and starting pitching advantage to lead to another victory in Chicago. 

Who will win Red Sox vs White Sox today: Red Sox moneyline (-125)

Noah Schultz is having a rough go. He's allowed at least three runs in five consecutive starts, only completing five innings once.

He allowed a homer in four of those games and issued 3+ walks three times. He's giving up power, and he's giving up a ton of unnecessary baserunners.

The Boston Red Sox are sixth in wOBA and fourth in ISO vs. lefties since June 1. They’re in a great spot to score in bulk and make life easier on Payton Tolle, who hasn’t been as sharp lately.

Back Boston to -135.

COVERS INTEL: Payton Tolle is enjoying a strong rookie campaign, ranking in the 81st percentile in xERA.

Red Sox vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-105)

The Red Sox have a great power profile against left-handed pitching, ranking eighth in OPS, fourth in ISO, and first in fly ball rate over the last five weeks.

Schultz sits in the 10th percentile in xERA, and the White Sox have several lefty relievers in their bullpen, making it a real possibility that six or seven innings are pitched by lefties.

The Chicago White Sox have excelled against lefties all season, leading the majors in ISO. Tolle has posted an xERA of 4.0 or higher in four of his last five and will be tested.

Bet this to -115.

Red Sox vs White Sox weather

Temperatures in the mid-70s are expected with slight winds blowing inwards. Small boost to the offenses.

Red Sox vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox -125 | White Sox +105
• Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+135) | White Sox +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Red Sox vs White Sox trend

The White Sox have cashed the Over in 30 of the last 50 games for +10.30 units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. White Sox.

How to watch Red Sox vs White Sox and game info

Red Sox vs White Sox latest injuries

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Morning A’s fans!

The club is hitting the road for the final two series of the first half, starting with a trip to Detroit to take on the Tigers then heading back west to Chicago for three against the White Sox. At the begining of the year if you had told someone that Chicago would be in first place in the AL Central while the Tigers are preparing to sell, you’d have had a hard time getting anyone to take you seriously. But here we are, with the White Sox’s 47-42 record giving them a one-game lead in the division while Tigers, at 40-50 and seven back in the Central, look likely to begin taking offers for their best players, with one pitcher in particular set to force a bidding war.

The A’s will have the honor of facing that very pitcher tonight in their first game outside of California in almost a full month. It’s Tarik Skubal going for the Tigers tonight, set for his 12th start of the year. It’s incredible that the 29-year-0ld is even pitching right now considering he just only underwent elbow surgery on May 6th. He hasn’t been quite his usual dominant form, as his 3.15 ERA is a far cry from the sheer dominance the two-time Cy Young winner displayed over the previous two seasons. He’s still having an overall fantastic year and with his track record he’s going to be the hottest commodity on the trade market over the coming weeks.

Before he departs Detroit however the A’s have to take him down. The right-hander has generally dominated the A’s in his career, like so many other teams. In 10 career starts against the Green & Gold Skubal owns a pristine 2.81 ERA, though that’s still only gotten him four wins compared to three losses. He’ll be running into the A’s at the right time though as the squad is really struggling to remain competitive and stay afloat in the AL playoff race.

The club comes into today on a three-game losing streak after getting swept by the Miami Marlins at home. They’re just 3-11 over their past 14 games, which has dropped them to 41-49 and now 5 1/2 back of the division lead and four back of the final wild card spot with five teams to leap over. The team has generally floated around the .500 mark this year but this is the current low point for the squad and things will need to turn around fast if the A’s want to get back into the playoff hunt. Getting a few wins before the All Star Break would go a long way towards that goal.

Taking on Skubal tonight is the emerging J.T. Ginn. He’s actually having a better statistical season than his opponennt tonight as the first-year full-time starter has a 3.04 ERA in his 19 games this year. And taking out the three relief appearances he made in April that number drops lower to 2.87 in 16 starts. It wasn’t exactly unsurprising that Ginn didn’t earn an All-Star nod but still disappointing for A’s fans who have seen an emerging ace blossom before our very eyes. He’s coming off a strong performance last time out (6 IP, 1 ER) and the A’s could certainly use more of that tonight to help snap this losing streak.

After tonight’s contest the middle game tomorrow will be a matchup between lefty Jeffrey Springs and right-hander Troy Melton. Melton has been borderline unhittable in his seven starts for Detroit as he’ll bring a 2.07 ERA into tomorrow’s game. He’s only ever faced the A’s once in his short career, firing three shutout innings in relief last season so tonight will be his first start against the Green & Gold. Springs meanwhile has gotten hit hard in recent outings, allowing six runs last time out against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His 5.79 ERA is hard to stomach and at this point in the season it’s starting to get frustrating to see manager Mark Kotsay continue to ride him. There are younger options that might actually be around for the next A’s playoff team and it’s time to start getting them some experience, even if that means sending Springs into relief.

Then we wrap up the series on Thursday in the finale, where it’ll be a battle between young righty Jack Perkins facing veteran Framber Valdez. The longtime Astro lefty isn’t having the dominant year the Tigers were expecting when they shelled out that huge contract for him this offseason but he’s managed to be serviceable all the same. Perkins meanwhile continues to struggle in his extended look in the starting rotation. Overall he’s sporting a 8.10 ERA in six starts, including arguably his worst appearance ever last time on the mound when he allowed seven earned runs to the Marlins. Perkins is one of those young arms A’s fans want out there getting his feet wet but even that’s tough to swallow. Hopefully Kotsay knows what he’s doing and isn’t destroying the 26-year-old’s confidence.

First pitch is at 3:40. Have a great one guys.

A’s Coverage:

• Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics ($)
• A’s Release Michael Kelly
• Three Things To Watch For The Athletics In July
• Julyeball Scout Report As Hopes, Like The Sun, Sink Slowly In The West
• Thoughts And Well Wishes For A’s Prospect Ryan Lasko
• A’s Take Series Finale, Beat Dodgers 7-1
• Dodgers Overwhelm A’s Once Again
• A’s roster moves: Massive Shakeup
• A’s To Trade Brett Harris To Red Sox
• It’s Harder To Win When You Don’t Understand Your Own Personnel
• Fun Parallels To 2012 Emerging
• What Kade Morris’ Role Will Look Like for A’s in Future
• Some Easy Fixes Rocket Science Aren’t
• Athletics’ Devin Taylor Emerges As All-Around Talent
• From celebratory pool dip to the A’s, Meneses’ journey back to Majors a memorable one
• Athletics Could Deal Hottest Triple-A Bat This Summer
• Status Report: Uncertainty Persists In 5 Places On The Diamond

MLB News and Interest:

• Shohei looking like Shohei again after 3-hit night, HR No. 299
• Brewers To Promote Luis Lara
• Dodgers’ Evan Phillips back 13 months after Tommy John surgery
• John Mozeliak Discusses Angels’ Draft, Deadline Plans
• 10 non-All-Stars poised for a big second half
• Max Kepler hits first homer since 80-game suspension ended
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Will the A’s still even be buyers in a couple weeks?

Morris heading down to Triple-A. Who takes his spot on the roster?

Do the A’s need to shake up the coaching staff with regards to the pitching?

UPDATE: The Brewers made the move official late Tuesday morning, optioning outfielder Blake Perkins to Triple-A Nashville.

According to Daniel Álvarez-Montes, who works for El ExtraBase, a Spanish-language baseball website, Luis Lara is being promoted to the big leagues.

Lara will join an outfield rotation that also includes Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Jake Bauers.

Lara, 21, signed a seven-year, $31 million contract in early June that includes club options for an additional three years. A speedy outfielder who has always had a good glove, Lara turned heads this season when he tore up Triple-A through the season’s first two months. Even after a bit of a cooldown, Lara is batting .321/.432/.470 in 78 games with the Sounds, good for a 143 wRC+, and he’s got nine homers this season — almost as many as he’d hit in his three previous minor-league seasons combined (10). After a bit of a lull after he signed his contract in June, Lara has ticked up again lately: in 11 games going back to June 23, Lara is hitting .366/.469/.610 with two homers, two doubles, and a triple. Lara is currently ranked as the No. 47 overall prospect by Baseball America and No. 67 by MLB Pipeline.

This move creates a bit of a roster crunch. You would expect that the Brewers would want Lara to play, but there’s no real way for him to do that without taking playing time away from Frelick — Mitchell is one of the hottest players in the league, and Chourio is a star.

It also means that the Brewers will have no choice but to start both Joey Ortiz and Cooper Pratt against right-handed pitching, assuming David Hamilton hits the IL after exiting early on Monday. If no further move is made, the Brewers will be operating without a backup infielder who has any experience playing anywhere other than first base.

Andrew Vaughn notably appeared at one game as a third baseman earlier this year, but that was for one inning and not something I’d expect to see with any regularity whatsoever. It’s hard for me to believe that the Brewers would return to the “Frelick-at-third-base” experiment that was rumored during spring training in 2024, but if there were ever a time to try it, this would be it.

The Brewers didn’t have any great options with which to replace Hamilton on the big-league roster. Triple-A Nashville didn’t have a single left-handed infielder, so there was no internal platoon option for Ortiz at the highest level of the minors. Skipping Triple-A and going to Double-A Biloxi for a Hamilton replacement would’ve been a bold move, which the Brewers are not particularly known for; there are no shortage of exciting players at Double-A who bat left-handed (Josh Adamczewski, Mike Boeve, Andrew Fischer, Jesús Made, and Dylan O’Rae are all either left-handed or switch-hit and could hall conceivably play third base) but none has ever appeared above Double-A.

We’ll see if the Brewers are comfortable operating with nothing beyond an emergency backup in the infield. If Hamilton’s injury is minor and they expect him back right after the All-Star Break, the Brewers will likely just ride out the week. But if Hamilton is out for an extended period, they’ll likely start canvassing the league.

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I'm back from a solid vacation and ready to smash some more dingers. I've run up over 24 units of profit over the last nine articles and am looking at some All-Stars today to keep the good times rolling with today's MLB player props and homers. 

Bobby Witt Jr. will get to feast on a tired Mets bullpen all game, while the best AL rookie has a great price vs. a starter that should regress and a bullpen that gives up bombs.

These are my favorite home run predictions for Tuesday, July 7.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Bobby Witt Jr.	+454
Kevin McGonigle	+575

Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+454)

It's a big name at a big price with a nine-inning home run edge. Bobby Witt Jr. and this Kansas City Royals offense get to face a tired Mets bullpen that used six arms yesterday and has leaned on its three best relievers in back-to-back games. New York is going with a bullpen game to add injury to insult, and this staff has allowed 29 runs over its last three games.

Witt might only have three homers over the last 30 days, but he also missed a week, has nine games under his belt since returning, and ranks 10th in all of baseball in BlastContact% (23.2%) over that span. The home runs and hard contact are coming, and there could be a handful before the All-Star break.

The Royals' shortstop might see three or four different pitchers today, but that also means he'll get plenty of plate appearances against the weaker arms in New York's bullpen over nine innings.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Royals.TV

Home run pick: Kevin McGonigle (+575)

Let's add another All-Star to the home run card at a +EV price of +575 with a fair price closer to +475. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner, Kevin McGonigle, is leading off and should get five plate appearances today against J.T. Ginn, who has been pitching above his underlying numbers all season.

The Athletics' starter has also cut his HR/FB rate in half despite generating more fly-ball outs. Regression is coming.

Detroit's offense also gets to tee off on an Athletics bullpen that owns the worst HR/FB rate in baseball over the last 30 days, the worst HR/9, and the second-worst ERA.

Anything at +500 or better is a play on the rookie. There could also be multiple Tigers home runs today, with Spencer Torkelson (+469) and Riley Greene (+372) joining him as Detroit's most likely long-ball threats.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, NBCS-California

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

For the second time in as many starts, the pitcher who had been the most consistent this season was pummeled by an opposing lineup. Walker Buehler was hit early and often, and the result was an embarrassing 8-0 loss for the San Diego Padres against the Arizona Diamondbacks to open their four-game series at Petco Park.

The thought heading into the game was the Padres might carry some momentum from their win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday into Monday night. That was not the case in any area of the game as the pitching was bad, the defense was ugly early and the offense reverted back to being dominated by a subpar pitcher.

Buehler last five innings in the loss, but that was more out of necessity because manager Craig Stammen did not want to burn his bullpen in the midst of their current 17 games in 17 days schedule leading into the All-Star break. The right-hander was tagged for seven runs on seven hits with one walk and four strikeouts. He also allowed two home runs. Alek Jacob pitched three innings in relief and allowed a run on two hits, which came on a solo home run before giving way to Ron Marinaccio who pitched a scorless ninth inning.

As bad as Buehler was allowing two runs in the first, four in the third and one in the fourth, the San Diego lineup was equally ineffective. The Padres managed eight hits with Jake Cronenworth and Jackson Merrill providing half of those with two hits apiece, but the team managed to put just one runner in scoring position all game. Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt like Buehler lasted five innings, but he did not allow a run and surrendered just four hits with no walks and six strikeouts. Ryan Thompson was just as good and he allowed just two hits over two innings of work with four strikeouts before Drey Jameson came on for the final two innings, allowing two hits with a strikeout.

San Diego returned to two games below .500 and will try to keep from adding to that total today against the Diamondbacks at 6:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Jhony Brito returned to the MLB roster for the first time since the 2024 season after an elbow injury and a long rehabilitation process.

• Mason Miller is used to navigating his way through opposing lineups, but after the Padres’ recent losing streak and struggles he is learning how to deal with limited usage.

• Craig Stammen is painfully positive at times and Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says he is not changing who he is during the recent struggles for San Diego.

Baseball News:

• The Los Angeles Dodgers got a walk-off win over the Colorado Rockies.

• Heliot Ramos hit three home runs to lead the San Francisco Giants to a win over the Toronto Blue Jays.

• The Milwaukee Brewers got a comeback win over the St. Louis Cardinals.

• James Wood hit a grand slam and helped the Washington Nationals beat the Houston Astros, 12-11.

• The New York Mets escaped with a win over the Atlanta Braves for the second time in as many days.

Last night was just an absolute caricature of the 2026 Nationals. They have so much heart and offensive firepower, but the pitching is so shaky. In the end, they came out on top, just barely in a 12-11 thriller. I have never seen such a disparity between a pitching staff and an offense in my life. 

Usually, when one part of your team is so bad like the Nats pitching staff, the other side of the ball is not elite. That is not how things usually work, and there was actually a good article on Fangraphs about this. The 2026 Nationals are not most teams though. They are a wacky, wonderful, hideously flawed bunch that we have all fallen in love with.

The Nats have scored the most runs in baseball, while being bottom 3 in runs allowed. That was on complete display from the jump against the Astros. It looked like this would be a beatdown early on, with Houston taking a quick 6-1 lead in the top of the 3rd inning. However, in peak 2026 Nationals fashion, the game was tied by the time the third inning was over.

Like the Nats have done so many times this year, they just blitzed the Astros. A 6-1 deficit turned into a 6-6 ballgame within five batters. CJ Abrams put the cherry on top of the rally with a 3-run homer to tie the game. That was a big and important swing for Abrams, who had been struggling recently. He made a statement today going 3 for 5 with that homer.

You can never take your eyes off this team because if you blink, you could miss five runs from either team on the field. There have been so many times this year in Nationals games where pitchers just can’t get outs at all. Sometimes it is Nats pitchers, other times it is the opposing team.

Last night we saw both sides of the coin. So many of these rallies just came from consecutive hits capped off by a homer. The Astros actually scored 10 of their 11 runs with two outs. That is a ridiculous stat, but it is also fitting for this Nats team. There have been too many times this year where the Nats are so close to getting out of a jam before getting their hearts broken with two outs or two strikes. Most of the Nats pitchers just don’t have the raw stuff to put guys away.

Thankfully for them, the Astros pitchers were overmatched against this fierce Nats offense. The Nats did most of their damage in just two innings, but they put up 11 runs in their pair of big innings. We talked about the third inning, but the fifth inning was the Nats other big frame.

Warning signs should have been ringing in the Astros dugout when Curtis Mead took Mike Burrows deep to start the inning. However, Burrows was allowed to face four more batters, only getting one out. He left with the bases loaded, but that was when the games began.

Drew Millas hit a sac fly before Nasim Nunez got an infield hit thanks to his elite speed. Nunez beating out that seemingly routine play ended up looming very large. James Wood was at the plate, and he was looking for his first out of the park grand slam. After he fouled off a high fastball, the Astros went back to the well again, and the Nats big slugger did not miss it. He walloped a 446 foot home run to make it a 12-6 game in the 5th inning.

For most teams a 12-6 lead should feel safe, but the 2026 Nationals are not most teams. After all, this group couldn’t hold an 8-1 lead in the 8th. The Astros got a run back in the 6th, but after a scoreless 7th by Cole Henry, things seemed to be under control.

However, this is where manager Blake Butera made a rookie mistake. He has made a habit of trying to extend relievers for multiple innings even if that is not really their strength. That is exactly what he did with Henry, and it backfired massively.

Cole Henry got sent down to Rochester in the beginning of June and made 10 appearances. The right hander did not throw more than one inning in any of those outings. In AAA, Henry had settled into a routine of being a one inning guy.

Butera tried to push Henry for a second inning, and it nearly cost them the game. Henry got the first out, but after a single and a walk, he was in trouble. Despite this, Butera stuck with Henry. The righty got a force out for the second out. However, that Astros two out magic showed up again. As his pitch count climbed into the 40’s, Henry allowed a double and a home run. Just like that, the game was 12-11.

Finally, Henry was pulled for Clayton Beeter, the Nats top high leverage arm. Beeter had a heroic performance, securing a four out save without allowing any baserunners. Clayton Beeter has his issues with control, but when he is on, he can be a dominant force as we saw last night. That was the game, the Nats secured a 12-11 win in the most 2026 Nationals way possible.

I hate to get on Blake Butera like this because he has done an outstanding job with this team. He has created a great culture and built a great staff. His lineup construction can be confusing at times, but it always feels like there is a method to the madness. However, he has to know his reliever’s limits. It should be clear by now that Cole Henry is not a multi-inning guy.

Butera has been dealt a very poor hand when it comes to the bullpen, but some of his decision making can be frustrating. Fans of every team second guess their manager’s bullpen decisions, but it feels like there are some correctable mistakes he keeps making. At the end of the day, the Nats are 47-45 and have an elite offense. If you told me that at the beginning of the season, I am not sure I would have believed you.

This team has so much heart and firepower, they just need pitching. Whether it is at the deadline or in the offseason, Paul Toboni has to address this pitching staff, the bullpen especially. This has been a great season so far, but hopefully this is just the beginning for this Nats core. To take the step from exciting young bunch to legitimate contender, the Nats need pitching, pitching and more pitching.

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Royals play a three-game series in at Citi Field starting on Tuesday night at 7:10 on SNY...

5 things to watch

Juan Soto is on another planet

Soto was on an absolute heater during the Mets' just-completed four-game series split against the Braves, hitting .429/.579/.857 with two homers and seven RBI.

His biggest swing was the two-out, three-run, go-ahead homer off All-Star closer Raisel Iglesias in the ninth inning of Monday's game, which the Mets eventually won in 10 innings.

Overall this season, Soto is slashing .301/.414/.570 (.984 OPS) with 19 homers in 72 games. He leads the National League in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS+, and is arguably second right now in the MVP race -- behind Shohei Ohtani, who is having another ridiculous year at the plate and on the mound. 

Despite missing roughly three weeks earlier this season due to a calf strain, Soto is on pace to finish the season with 34 homers -- just a tick below his 162-game average of 36. 

The starting pitching situation 

The Mets continue to operate with four regular starting pitchers and one question mark.

Nolan McLean and Freddy Peralta started the final two games in Atlanta, and Christian Scott and Sean Manaea will start the final two games against the Royals.

That leaves Tuesday as a night where New York will have to piece things together, which could be especially challenging since they could be without high-leverage relievers Brooks Raley, Luke Weaver, and Devin Williams, who all had heavy workloads in Atlanta.

Luke Weaver's dominance -- and future

Weaver hasn't allowed an earned run since April 30 -- a span of 24 appearances over 26.0 innings.

During that time, he has given up just 11 hits while walking seven and striking out 34.

In 38.0 innings over 36 appearances this season, Weaver has a 1.89 ERA (2.53 FIP) and 0.84 WHIP with just 21 hits allowed. But it's possible his Mets tenure could soon be coming to an end. 

Despite Weaver being under contract through 2027, the Mets could trade him ahead of the deadline. But the price would have to be right. 

Hello, Seth

Former Met Seth Lugo gets the start for Kansas City on Tuesday.

Lugo has taken a bit of a step back since his phenomenal 2024 season, when he had a 3.00 ERA in 206.2 innings and finished second in voting for the AL Cy Young award.

The 36-year-old has a 4.20 ERA (4.15 FIP) and 1.38 WHIP this season, and has allowed more hits (103) than innings pitched (96.1).

Lugo has been especially susceptible to the home run ball lately, surrendering five taters in 11.0 innings over his last two starts.

The Bobby Witt Jr. Show

Witt, who has finished in the top four in MVP voting each of the last two seasons, is having another tremendous year. 

He is hitting .292/.364/.467 and is leading the AL in bWAR (4.8) and stolen bases (30).

Witt has also been the best defensive shortstop in baseball, grading out in the 100th percentile when it comes to range.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

Soto has been feasting lately. 

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Christian Scott

Scott has been missing lots of bats, fanning 19 batters in 13.0 innings over his last three starts.

Which Royals player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Jac Caglianone

Caglianone has game-changing power, and is having a strong second season after struggling as a rookie. 

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The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals meet this afternoon at Busch Stadium, with Jacob Misiorowski on the hill for the visitors. 

My Brewers vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks are targeting Milwaukee to take this contest behind the dominance of their ace.

Who will win Brewers vs Cardinals today: Brewers -1.5 (-107)

The Milwaukee Brewers hand Jacob Misiorowski the ball in the first game of this doubleheader. The right-hander had a tough outing last time out, allowing five runs, although just one was earned. Overall, he's still been dominant, though. 

Over the last month, Misiorowski owns a 2.11 FIP while holding opponents to a mere 4% barrel rate. Misiorowski relies heavily on his four-seamer, throwing it 63.4% of the time, and opponents are hitting just .172 against the pitch.

Some of St. Louis' top bats have handled four-seamers well this season, but Misiorowski's ability to overpower hitters with his primary offering gives Milwaukee a clear advantage on the mound.

The St. Louis Cardinals are likely to go with an opener here. This Cards bullpen has a solid 2.77 FIP, but I'm really liking how the Brewers are swinging it right now. They have a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 105 wRC+ over their last seven games. Several Milwaukee hitters are red-hot right now as well. 

I'll play this pick up to -120.  

COVERS INTEL: Misiorowski has been even more dominant on the road this season, posting a 1.62 FIP compared to a 2.20 mark at American Family Field. 

Brewers vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+102)

This is a relatively low total, but there are reasons to expect a low-scoring contest. As mentioned, this Cardinals bullpen enters with a 2.77 FIP, while Misiorowski has consistently worked deep into games and often covers six or seven innings.

Milwaukee's relief corps has also been excellent lately, posting a 2.89 xERA over the last week while allowing just 0.28 HR/9.

Neither of these teams is hitting for much power right now. The Cardinals have a .162 ISO over their last seven games, while the Brewers sit at .151 over the same span. 

I'll play this pick up to -120. 

Brewers vs Cardinals weather

Conditions should be neutral in St. Louis this afternoon, with temperatures sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s throughout the game. Humidity will be moderate, while winds remain light at around 8 mph. Rain is unlikely to be a factor, with precipitation chances staying below 25%, so weather should not cause any meaningful disruption.

Brewers vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Brewers -170 | Cardinals +163
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 (-100) | Cardinals +1.5 (-104)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-111) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Brewers vs Cardinals trend

The Brewers have cashed the Under in 16 of their last 25 games for +7.30 units and a 27% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Brewers vs Cardinals and game info

Brewers vs Cardinals latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

This was the 13th week of full minor league play (stats are entering play on Tuesday, July 6th).

According to FanGraphs (which factors in age and proximity to the big leagues), prospect Caden Bodine remains the top performer in the system. His full season statline is further below.

Meanwhile, Aidan Cremarosa continues to be the top performing pitcher in the system. The 22-year old Cremarosa is having a solid debut season within the Rays system. The 2025 8th round pick is currently in Single-A and holds a 2.68 ERA | 2.68 FIP with a 32.1 K% & 4.6 BB% over 57 IP.

RUMBLINGS

• Going to shine a spotlight on Ryan McCoy. The Rays picked him up from the Indy Leagues last year. The 24-year old is currently in High-A and has been on a tear the past few weeks. Since June 13th, McCoy is hitting .290/.436/.645, registering a 169 wRC+; he has 5 HR over his last five games as well.
• Jackson Baumeister has been solid since returing from the Injured list in late May. Over his last 8 starts, he has a 2.92 ERA | 3.71 FIP with a 33.1 K% & 12.7 BB% over 37 IP. His latest outing was fantastic as he delivered five no-hit innings while racking 10 strikeouts and yielded two walks.
• Baseball America had injury updates for several of the Rays top prospects
  • Daniel Pierce likely out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery
  • Anderson Brito suffered a minor right forearm strain but is expectecd back soon
  • Adrian Santana is dealing with a hamstring injury
  • Taitn Gray had surgery to remove a bone chip and is expected back later this month

TEAM LEADERS

• Must currently be assigned to that team
• Baseball America’s top ten prospects are featured below each team they’re currently assigned to.
• (minimum of 140 TBF & PA)

Tampa Bay Rays

Top 10 Prospects

• None currently on active roster

Durham Bulls

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .265, Blake Sabol
OBP: .332, Logan Davidson
SLG: .448, Blake Sabol
HR: 10, Carson Williams & Blake Sabol
wRC+: 99, Blake Sabol
SB: 16, Homer Bush Jr

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 1.96, Evan Reifert
FIP: 3.84, Ty Johnson
K%: 33.0% Ty Johnson
BB%: 7.9%, Chase Solesky
WHIP: 0.99, Ty Johnson
AVG: .171, Ty Johnson
WHIFF%: 15.2%, Ty Johnson

Top 10 Prospects

• #2 Brody Hopkins
  • AAA: 4.52 ERA | 5.07 FIP | 26.4 K% | 20.8 BB% | .195 AVG | 12.2 WHIFF% | 67.2 IP

Montgomery Biscuits

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .322, Austin Overn
OBP: .393, Austin Overn
SLG: .591, Austin Overn
HR: 15, Will Simpson
wRC+: 155, Austin Overn
SB: 32, Austin Overn

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 2.96, Chris Clark
FIP: 3.92, Chris Clark
K%: 27.9%, Jackson Baumeister
BB%:  3.6%, Santiago Suarez
WHIP 1.04, Chris Clark
AVG: .206, Jackson Baumeister
WHIFF%: 15.6%, Jackson Baumeister

Top 10 Prospects

• #1 Theo Gillen
  • AA: .178/.275/.244 | 21.6 K% | 11.8 BB% | 0 HR | 2 SB | 47 wRC+ | 51 PA
  • A+: .342/.449/.589 | 23.8 K% | 14.3 BB% | 12 HR | 28 SB | 165 wRC+ | 265 PA
• #4 Caden Bodine
  • AA: .250/.348/.350 | 13.0 K% | 8.7 BB% | 0 HR | 0 SB | 95 wRC+ | 23 PA
  • A+: .341/.411/.477 | 6.6 K% | 7.3 BB% | 4 HR | 3 SB | 132 wRC+ | 151 PA
  • A: .379/.433/.614 | 3.9 K% | 9.2 BB% | 5 HR | 1 SB | 178 wRC+ | 152 PA
• #9 T.J. Nichols
  • AA: 6.49 ERA | 4.96 FIP | 20.8 K% | 9.4 BB% | .274 AVG | 9.1 WHIFF% | 34.2 IP
  • CPX: 1.80 ERA | 2.55 FIP | 20.0 K% | 0.0 BB% | .300 AVG | 9.2 WHIFF% | 5 IP
    • 4/7: Placed on Injured List
    • 5/9: Began rehab assignment in Complex League
    • 5/19: Activated from Injured List
• #10 Santiago Suarez
  • AA: 5.85 ERA | 5.29 FIP | 23.7 K% | 3.6 BB% | .266 AVG | 12.4 WHIFF% | 60 IP
    • 4/25: Placed on Injured List
    • 5/5: Activated from Injured List

Bowling Green Hot Rods

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .314, Connor Hujsak
OBP: .435, Tony Santa Maria
SLG: .603, Connor Hujsak
HR: 18, Connor Hujsak
wRC+: 145, Ryan McCoy
SB: 31, Tony Santa Maria

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 1.97, Jacob Kisting
FIP: 2.68, Jacob Kisting
K%: 28.8%, Anderson Brito
BB%: 4.7%, Dominic Niman
WHIP: 0.94, Jacob Kisting
AVG: .197, Jacob Kisting
WHIFF%: 16.9%, Noah Beal

Top 10 Prospects

• #3 Nathan Flewelling
  • A+: .261/.394/.502 | 25.6 K% | 16.3 BB% | 16 HR | 4 SB | 131 wRC+ | 320 PA
• #6 Anderson Brito
  • A+: 3.34 ERA | 4.50 FIP | 28.8 K% | 14.4 BB% | .240 AVG | 13.4 WHIFF% | 32.1 IP
    • 5/23: Placed on 7-day Injured List

Charleston River Dogs

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .290, Cooper Flemming
OBP: .406, Taitn Gray
SLG: .474, Taitn Gray
HR: 7, Cooper Flemming
wRC+: 141, Taitn Gray
SB: 24, Alberth Palma

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 2.66, Jacob Kuhn
FIP: 2.68, Aidan Cremarosa
K%: 32.1%, Aidan Cremarosa
BB%: 4.6%, Aidan Haugh & Aidan Cremarosa
WHIP: 0.79, Aidan Cremarosa
AVG: .170, Aidan Cremarosa
WHIFF%: 16.7%, Aidan Cremarosa

Top 10 Prospects

• #5 Cooper Flemming
  • A: .290/.377/.442 | 15.6 K% | 10.3 BB% | 7 HR | 9 SB | 126 wRC+ | 321 PA
• #7 Daniel Pierce
  • A: .252/.336/.390 | 28.6 K% | 7.9 BB% | 4 HR | 6 SB | 101 wRC+ | 140 PA
    • 4/22: Placed on the 7-day IL
    • 5/2: Activated from the IL
    • Hasn’t played since May 30th
• #8 Taitn Gray
  • A: .286/.406/.474 | 21.9 K% | 16.1 BB% | 6 HR | 4 SB | 141 wRC+ | 192 PA
    • 6/1: Placed on the 7-day IL

Good morning.

While the sporting world was losing its mind over the USMNT calling in all of their favors to have a red card suspended at the World Cup, and how that affected the integrity of an ongoing tournament, only for the US to get embarrassed by a European soccer power anyway, not much was written about the Texas Rangers on their day off.

Kennedi Landry has a MLB Draft preview where the Rangers will hope to add more talent to a farm that has produced recent first-round contributors.

Here’s ESPN’s David Schoenfield handing out midseason grades.

And here’s Mike Axisa listing out which players might be available at the upcoming trade deadline.

Have a nice day!

Selecting players for the All-Star team is more complicated than we sometimes admit. The requirement for every team to have a representative no matter their quality can sometimes make things messy, as does the complicated voting process for selecting starters. Naturally, this process is going to omit some players whose performance on merit deserve to be recognized. 

One of those players this year could be Zack Wheeler. The Phillies co-ace was not selected to be on the initial NL roster despite having an 8-1 record and 2.36 ERA across 13 starts since returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Wheeler’s recovery has been stunning, as he hasn’t missed a beat despite having such a major surgery at age 35. 

Part of the reason Wheeler wasn’t named an All-Star was likely his innings total. His late start to the season has limited him to only 80 innings pitched this season, putting him 90th among all starting pitchers entering play on Monday. However, the controversial All-Star selection of Jacob Misiorowski last season despite the blossoming ace only having thrown 25.2 innings for his career to that point has set an uneasy precedent when it comes to innings totals and All-Star selections. 

There’s still a chance Wheeler could be nominated as replacements start to roll out, but as it stands right now, Wheeler is tentatively scheduled to pitch the last game before the break on July 12th. It’s unlikely he will be named as a replacement seeing that he may not be available to actually pitch two days after his last start. The Phillies would almost certainly prefer the 36-year-old doesn’t pitch any more innings than he needs to. In addition to that barrier, there’s also the fact that the Phillies already have five players headed to the festivities. It’s likely that MLB will look elsewhere for replacements as it may be deemed that the Phillies have enough representation already. 

Nevertheless, is Zack Wheeler an All-Star snub? We already know how his agent feels on the matter, but what about you?

A couple of weeks ago I read a hilarious and brilliant piece on Substack comparing each major league franchise to a bird.  The story is called: Thirty teams. Thirty birds. It was written by someone who goes by the name of 9inningnomad and if you can find it, I highly recommend it.

The descriptions were spot on.  Some teams obviously already have their birds, namely the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Orioles. 

The Yankees got tagged with the Canadian Goose.  From the story: “Loud.  Territorial.  Fully convinced that every public space belongs to it by birthright and prior history.  Blocks traffic.  Ruins the mood.  Wins the argument by existing and does not care if you like it.” 

Philadelphia Phillies – American Crow – “Smart. Loud.  Social in the way that a bar fight is social.  Travels with backup, always, because the crow understood early that the yard is more fun when everyone is involved in the confrontation.”  Boom!

Chicago Cubs – Black Capped Chickadee – “Everybody knows this bird.  Everybody likes this bird. Has somehow convinced an entire region that it’s the most important bird at the feeder.  Half the neighborhood has a chickadee flag on their porch.”  W!

Cleveland Guardians – White Breasted Nuthatch – “Does everything upside down and still makes it work.”

The Royals got tagged with the Hummingbird – “Tiny engine.  Fast twitch everything.  Shows up in bursts, flashes something beautiful, and is gone before you can fully process what you saw.”

I loved all of them.  On the Royals, I would suggest another bird.  No offense to the Hummingbird, which is one of nature’s great inhabitants, but I think the Royals should have been the Bobwhite Quail.  The Bobwhite is a pure midwestern bird.  They go through prodigious booms and busts.  The busts are so extreme that you wonder if they’ve gone extinct.  Then suddenly, for a couple of years, you see quail everywhere.  The booms never last long, one or two seasons, while the busts seem like they last forever.  Twenty-year downturns are normal for this handsome little bird with the distinctive call.

The Quail is a humble bird with an enormous midwestern inferiority complex, especially when compared to their peacocking brethren, the Ringneck pheasant and Tom Turkey, two birds who always announce their presence by strutting around the countryside.

*********************************************************************************************************

As this cursed season wears on, it’s apparent to all that the Royals need to change the direction of the franchise.  That change needs to start at the top and end with a thorough cleansing of the current regime.  Will they do it?  If I had to wager a guess, I would say that nothing is going to happen until after the season ends. 

The draft is coming up and the last time the Royals did a housecleaning was right before the 2006 draft, a draft in which they held the #1 pick.  Of course, the Royals blew that draft in the most Royal of ways, selecting Luke Hochever while passing on such notables as Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Evan Longoria and Max Scherzer.  Kershaw and Scherzer will someday soon be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  No fault of Hochever.  He had a couple of excellent years late in his career out of the bullpen.  Had he been a 4^th or 5^th round pick, we’d have raved about him.  Expectations are much higher for the number one selection and the Royals, operating without a General Manager, blew it.  Even had they picked say Kershaw or Lincecum, do you have any confidence that they wouldn’t have screwed those guys up too?  I can envision the team spending years trying to get either pitcher to adjust their awkward windups and leave them in A ball until they’re 25 years old.  Suffice to say, I don’t have much confidence in our developmental process.

So don’t expect any changes to the front office until after the draft.

Once this wretched season ends, we head into the lockout.  If John Sherman is going to make a change, this may be the time he does it.  The problem is, who do you hire as the new GM?  And even if they do, will the Royals get it right?  Sherman most certainly still has some Cleveland connections.  Maybe he can raid their staff for some competent replacements?

Speaking of the looming lockout, Jay Mariotti recently had an interesting take.  In a recent story he suggested that the players should take the lead and strike on August 12^th.  Screw the remainder of the season.  Screw the playoffs and the World Series.  Take the power away from the owners and leave them hanging. 

The bottom line is, there will be no winners in this labor fight.  The last time this happened, baseball took a hit and only a steroid fueled home run boom brought the game back to the mainstream. 

*********************************************************************************************************

I have a confession to make.  The Royals have played almost 90 games this season and I’ve only seen them play three times.  Based on how the season has unfolded, you might say, lucky you.  You’ve missed a lot of anguish.  In a normal summer I watch upwards of 100 Royal games but thanks to the wonderful world of streaming, I’ve lost my access to Royals baseball and I miss it.  I’ve been following most games on the ESPN app, but it’s not remotely close to seeing a live game. I do have Peacock, which allowed me to watch Sunday’s win, but that game wasn’t available on the MLB package. Strange times in TV land.

In past years, I’d leave the game on while working around the house, checking in now and then to see who’s at the plate or what the score is.

My wife has always been good at keeping me up to date when the game is on.  It usually goes something like this:

“Hey hon, Salvy just hit a home run!”. 

“Hey hon, is Country Buffet still playing?” 

“Hey hon, the Leprechaun guy (Kyle Isbel) made a good play in the field”.

“Hey Hon, the guy who looks like the Geico Cave Man is pitching”.

You get the idea.  She doesn’t always get the players’ names right, but close enough for me to follow from the other room.

Back to the streaming problem.  I know I can probably buy a package to pick up games, but I’m a bit of a self-imposed technology luddite.  Short of packing up and moving to a community that has a cable system, do any of you have any recommendations?

Are any of you using Royals.TV and if so, what’s your opinion of that?

*********************************************************************************************************

Over the past decade many saber metricians have fallen in love with the lowly walk.  I’ve been rolling this around in my mind for the last month and have concluded that not all walks are created equal.

I’ve come to the conclusion that if you’re the #1, 2, 7, 8 or 9 hitter, a walk is almost always good thing.  If you’re the 3, 4, 5 or 6 hitter and come up with men on base, with no outs, a walk is fine.  If there are men in scoring position, and the pitcher doesn’t give you anything good to hit, take the walk.  If the pitcher is behind 2-0 or 3-1 and pipes a fastball down the middle, you better be swinging and not looking for a walk.  A base hit, even a measly single will score at least one and maybe two.  A walk just puts the pressure on the next batter to deliver.

If you’re batting 3 through 6, your job is to drive in runs.  This is one reason (and granted, there are many) why the 2026 Royals have struggled so badly. 

The middle of the order hitters, namely Vinnie and Sal, have not driven in the runs.  Salvy has averaged 96 RBI per season over the past five summers.  Vinnie has average 105 over the last two.  They might get 100 combined this summer and that’s a big if.

That’s a lot of missing runs in the middle of the order. 

Injuries have hurt them badly of course, with Vinnie, Bobby, Kyle Isbel and Maikel Garcia all missing time.  Father Time has caught up with Salvy and neutered him.  Carter Jensen has stepped up and that’s about it.  Bobby probably won’t make it to 100 RBI this summer, since no one is getting on base in front of him, and Jac Caglianone, though improving rapidly, is still a work in progress. 

Bottom line: I’m still old school.  I’d rather have my guys swinging the bat, trying to do some damage, instead of waiting out a walk.  Hitting is contagious.  You see your teammates getting a rap and you want to get to the plate and take your cuts.  And don’t get me started on bunting, my blood pressure is bad enough as it is.

After seemingly holding off the June swoon during the first couple of weeks of Aaron Judge’s absence, the Yankees succumbed in full, losing nine of ten games while their offense completely went to sleep. Their standing in the division, which looked strong just a few weeks ago, New York leading by four games, has slipped, with the Rays now three games up in the AL East.

The Yankees were always going to struggle at some point without Judge, but this latest stretch has of course been particularly brutal. Now that they’ve let the Rays open up a gap again in the division, how nervous are you that the Yankees will fade out of the AL East chase?

In truth, this AL East race has already been a rollercoaster. You can see it in FanGraphs’ division odds, which show the Yankees’ division chances shooting up before falling off three separate times this season:

You may notice that as things stand, the Rays and the Yankees have the same division odds, at least by FanGraphs’ estimation. Baseball Prospectus has anointing Tampa Bay as the division favorites, while betting markets have the Yankees as narrow favorites for now.

Based on the odds, it would seem like now is a great time to feel pretty nervous about the Yankees’ chances of earning the division crown. The team’s odds by FanGraphs have peaked at almost 90 percent multiple times this year, only for the Yankees to fumble things away, with the Rays now in front according to the projections.

Yet on the other hand, the fact that the projections still put this as a toss-up could provide Yankee fans some comfort. Despite how awful the team has played in recent weeks, how putrid the lineup has been for long stretches, the team isn’t out of it, has easily the best run differential in the American League, and still has something like a 50 percent chance to take the division.

Moreover, the Yankees stand to add more to their roster over the next month than their rival Rays, something that’s not fully baked into any projection. Not only will the Yankees get Max Fried, Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton (hopefully) back at some point, but they are perennially more active than Tampa at the trade deadline. Though the Rays have a stronger farm system, it’s not Tampa’s M.O. to dip into that farm system to add veteran help midseason; the Rays’ whole model relies on having scores of young players on hand to replace their current big-league contributors who threaten to age out and/or make more money. The Yankees, despite accusations of prospect hugging, typically make several major-league additions to their roster every summer during which they contend.

Overall, I think the FanGraphs odds have it about right: the Rays may have nudged in front in the standings, but the Yankees are by no means out of it and must act with urgency to fight their way back. What do you think? Are you nervous that the team will fall out of it entirely, or do they still stand a good chance to come back?

This morning, Sam continues our Trade Deadline coverage with a look at the Detroit Tigers, who are still on the playoff bubble but could prove to be sellers this month. Also, Andrew delivers today’s Rivalry Roundup, Jeff profiles George Moriarty, and Michael analyzes the last week down on the farm. And in the afternoon, Peter’s At-bat of the Week features more strong work from Trent Grisham.

Today’s Matchup

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Time: 6:40 p.m. EST

TV: YES, Rays.TV, TBS

Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL