Everyone’s favorite quick hitters. I found a couple of first-inning props that should get the sweat going to kick off the evening while still delivering a full thrill ride.
Let's dive into my favorite NRFI predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, June 16.
Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today
Pick
Odds
/ - YRFI
-126
/ - NRFI
-142
/ - NRFI
-131
Giants at Braves: YRFI (-126)
One of my favorite matchups on the board today has the potential to produce a ton of runs, and we are all over the YRFI in this one, folks.
San Francisco Giants right-hander Adrian Houser takes the mound against an Atlanta Braves lineup that features seven hitters with at least a strongly rated matchup. Houser also enters the day as the lowest-rated pitcher on Batters-Box, so we have to be rooting for runs here. Through 13 starts this season, he owns a 9.00 ERA in the first inning, while allowing opposing hitters to slash .302/.409/.698.
Things do not get much better for Braves right-hander Grant Holmes, who owns the third-worst pitcher rating on the slate. He will have to navigate a Giants lineup featuring three elite-rated hitters and two more with strongly rated matchups. Through 13 starts, Holmes has posted a 4.83 first-inning ERA, allowing eight runs in those appearances.
With a combined nine elite-rated hitters and three strongly rated hitters in this matchup, I think the -126 price tag makes a lot of sense. I would be comfortable playing this up to -130.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BravesVsn, NBCSBA
Blue Jays at Red Sox: NRFI (-142)
Back-to-back weeks taking an NRFI featuring Boston Red Sox right-hander Payton Tolle, who draws a Toronto Blue Jays offense that has not been making much hard contact or barreling the baseball over its last 12 road games. Meanwhile, Tolle has been nails in the first inning, posting a 2.00 ERA while allowing just two runs through nine starts. Opposing hitters are batting only .194 with a .242 OBP and .419 SLG against him in the opening frame.
On the other side, Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease has also been tremendous in the first inning, sporting a 3.00 ERA while allowing just five runs across 12 starts. Opposing hitters are batting .217 with a .280 OBP and .413 SLG. Cease also gets the luxury of facing a lineup that does not feature a single elite or strong-rated hitter in the current season timeframe ratings at Batters-Box.
Additionally, the Red Sox lineup features eight hitters with strikeout rates above league average and seven hitters with ground-ball rates above league average.
Sure, -142 is a heavily juiced price for an NRFI, but I would still play it at anything near this number. You could also consider pairing it with another prop from today's card.
The White Sox enter this matchup after taking down two of the National League's best, winning a series against the Dodgers this past weekend and the Braves in the series prior. Can they keep the momentum rolling against a red-hot ace?
Early on, I am leaning toward Cole recording a clean first inning. Through four starts this season, nobody has been able to touch him in the opening frame. He owns a 0.00 ERA, while opposing hitters are batting just .083 against him.
Martin has been impressive in the first inning as well. Through 13 starts, he has allowed only two runs in the opening frame, with opposing hitters batting .191 and carrying a .255 slugging percentage.
I am expecting some offensive regression from the White Sox following their first series win over the Dodgers since 2014. Meanwhile, with Aaron Judge out of the Yankees lineup, I think Martin can navigate the first inning cleanly and get in and out without any damage.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: YES, CHSN
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
NRFI/YRFI picks: 5-1, +2.1 units
What is a NRFI prediction?
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) picks add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI pick is a prediction that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're predicting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI pick is the exact opposite. You're predicting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI picks add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for those looking for a quick resolution.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 12: Gunnar Henderson #2 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates with Adley Rutschman #35 after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning during the game between the San Diego Padres and the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday, June 12, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Mariners return home after a rough road trip with some reinforcements waiting to join the squad. The return of both Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford should alleviate some of the issues plaguing the team over the last few weeks by lengthening the lineup. There are still issues on the pitching staff — Andrés Muñoz’s back issue that forced him from the game on Sunday being the most concerning — but the roster definitely looks a lot stronger with the M’s superstar catcher back on board.
After splitting a four-game series in Baltimore last week, the Orioles make the trip out to the West Coast this week to wrap up the season series against the Mariners. If you watched any of that series, you’re already familiar with what the O’s bring to the table — nothing much has changed in the four days since these two teams met last.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Taylor Ward
LF
R
332
20.2%
19.0%
0.095
123
Gunnar Henderson
SS
L
330
24.2%
7.9%
0.191
99
Adley Rutschman
C
S
216
14.4%
10.6%
0.217
128
Pete Alonso
1B
R
316
22.2%
10.8%
0.220
123
Samuel Basallo
DH
L
215
25.6%
8.8%
0.211
117
Leody Taveras
CF
S
217
21.2%
10.6%
0.114
104
Colton Cowser
RF
L
171
28.7%
11.1%
0.162
97
Blaze Alexander
3B
R
170
22.9%
5.9%
0.118
118
Jackson Holliday
2B
L
82
29.3%
11.0%
0.169
79
The biggest change to the O’s lineup already happened last Thursday when Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo returned from their respective minor injuries that had held them out of the first three games of that series in Baltimore. Otherwise, I’ll just paste in what Isabelle wrote about the team below:
The Orioles currently have the fifth-highest strikeout rate and the sixth-highest walk rate paired with some distinctly middle-of-the-road contact numbers. It’s also worth noting that only four players have accrued 200+ plate appearances at this point, indicative of intermittent injury struggles and some reclamation projects. Former AL Rookie of the Year contender and longtime light at the end of the Bad Years in Baltimore Tunnel, Adley Rutschman (“play badly for Adley” is a clever little ditty that will live on in my brain for eternity) had a torrid start, but has cooled in recent weeks. Gunnar Henderson is being propped up by his good defense, Taylor Ward is as annoyingly-decent as ever, and former “friend” Leody Taveras has slashed his strikeout rate by third, which makes him a reasonably functional big leaguer. Their big offensive signing, Pete Alonso, petrified everyone with his frigid start, but he’s since been about what you would expect. Other names to note are Samuel Basallo, their younger, better (?) catcher who had a scorching month at the plate in May; Jackson Holliday, former top prospect and eternal nepo baby, who started the season on the injured list; and Coby Mayo, pressed into service at third after Jordan Westburg’s season-ending elbow surgery.
Brandon Young graduated from the Orioles’ development pipeline last year after landing sixth on their 2025 prospect list. He’s got above average skills across the board but no clear carrying tool to push his profile above a back-end starter. His fastball is probably his best pitch, though he’s introduced a new slider this year that shows a lot of promise. He’ll also mix in a curveball and a splitter to keep left-handed batters at bay. His strikeout rate isn’t all that impressive, but he’s found some success by limiting the amount of hard contact he allows.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Kyle Bradish
73.1
22.6%
12.1%
15.5%
50.0%
4.30
4.70
George Kirby
84
21.1%
6.0%
10.1%
52.0%
4.07
3.40
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
7.7%
25.7%
94.0
84
68
133
0.401
Sinker
39.6%
27.7%
94.7
95
84
129
0.302
Curveball
12.0%
27.9%
84.3
104
130
114
0.261
Slider
40.7%
18.7%
87.0
114
95
109
0.339
From a previous series preview:
Kyle Bradish looked like he had made the jump to ace-dom back in 2024 but Tommy John surgery derailed his breakout. He returned to the mound late last year and looked like he was ready to pick up exactly where he left off. Things haven’t gone so smoothly this season, however. The key to his success all those years ago were his two breaking balls. His curveball has looked fine this year, but his slider has been knocked around a bunch. The effectiveness of his sinker has also waned a bit because he’s struggled to locate that pitch in the zone. That’s led to a pretty big jump in walk rate to go along with a much lower strikeout rate.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Shane Baz
82
18.9%
9.0%
8.2%
36.8%
4.06
4.02
Bryan Woo
82
24.0%
4.6%
8.3%
35.5%
4.28
3.26
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
23.1%
40.6%
96.2
104
80
86
0.364
Sinker
16.0%
1.8%
95.2
90
59
135
0.323
Cutter
32.8%
7.5%
89.5
97
86
78
0.353
Changeup
0.2%
13.0%
88.5
77
37
91
0.474
Curveball
27.9%
37.1%
85.3
102
91
104
0.291
The Orioles traded for Shane Baz this offseason in an effort to bolster their rotation and then signed him to a five-year, $68 million extension after his first start with the ballclub. At one point, Baz was a highly regarded prospect in Tampa Bay’s organization but Tommy John surgery derailed much of his development. Over the last two years since returning from that injury, he’s been merely average rather than transcendent like many thought he’d be as a prospect. With Baltimore, he added a sinker to his repertoire and emphasized his excellent curveball at the expense of his four-seam fastball. It’s a good trade off in theory but he’s struggled through an up-and-down season so far. His strikeout rate is down six points and left-handed batters in particular are crushing his pitches.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Mariners
37-36
0.507
—
+20
L-L-W-L-L
Athletics
36-36
0.500
0.5
-42
W-W-W-L-W
Rangers
35-37
0.486
1.5
+4
W-L-L-W-L
Astros
33-41
0.446
4.5
-45
L-W-W-L-L
Angels
29-44
0.397
8.0
-39
W-W-W-L-L
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Rays
41-28
0.594
+6.5
+7
W-L-L-W-L
Guardians
39-33
0.542
+3.0
-3
L-L-L-W-W
Athletics
36-36
0.500
—
-42
W-W-W-L-W
Rangers
35-37
0.486
1.0
+4
W-L-L-W-L
Blue Jays
34-38
0.472
2.0
-22
W-L-W-L-L
Orioles
34-39
0.466
2.5
-33
W-W-W-L-L
The Athletics had a weird week in Las Vegas last week, winning four of six on that special “homestand” but losing their game on Sunday by a score of 23-9 against the Rockies. The team returned to Sacramento last night and beat up on the Pirates in the first game of a three game set against Pittsburgh. The Rangers wound up salvaging a single win in their weekend series against the Red Sox but lost the first game of a series against the Twins last night.
Jun 13, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Ernie Clement (22) attempts a bunt and pops out against the New York Yankees during the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
The Jays made a trade yesterday. Connor Seabold, who was DFAed, was traded to the Royals for minor league pitcher Denis Samudio and cash.
Samudio is a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher from Panama. He was pitching in the Arizona Complex League (the Arizona equivalent to the Florida Coast League). He’s a little old for that league. He was signed as an international free agent before the 2025 season.
There is a sentence about him in the FanGraphs KC prospects list.
Samudio was an older signee who performed on the complex last year. He throws strikes and touches 95 with some of the best vertical break in the system.
He’s pitched 5.2 innings this year with 3 hits, 2 earned runs (3 unearned), 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. I’d say he was a lottery pick, but anyone who can throw 95 at the start of his professional career might be interesting to watch. He’s been assigned to the Dunedin Blue Jays.
Turning to Seabold, he pitched in 5 games for us in the rotating last-man-in-the-pen role. In 3.1 innings, he allowed 6 hits, 3 earned, 2 walks, and 1 strikeout. He’s played parts of five years in the majors with six different teams (he’s been in nine different organizations). When you are out of options, and you are on the bubble, that’s how things go.
Looking ahead, we have three games in Boston starting tonight.
Starting Pitchers:
Dylan Cease (3-3, 2.91) vs. Payton Tolle (3-3, 2.70).
Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23) vs. Jake Bennett (1-2, 5.28). If I were a betting man, I’d take the over on this game.
Trey Yesavage (3.3, 3.78) vs. Sonny Gray (8-1, 3.03)
How long do they keep going with Max? You know the answer is ‘Longer than we’d like’. But, if he’s crushed again today, I don’t see the point in starting him over Spencer Miles. Neither one is going to get you through 5 innings, but at least Miles could get us there while still within a one-possession game. Or he could come out when Shane Bieber is ready to return (which could be next week).
I get that it is a little more delicate when you are dealing with a future Hall of Famer, but having a starter with an ERA over 10 is not something you can sustain.
We have two players leading their position in All-Star voting. Ernie Clement and Vladimir Guerrero. Ernie deserves to go. Vlad…..not so much. But I do remember Davey Lopes getting voted into the All-Star Game despite a poor season. When asked about it, he said something like, ‘I’m not sure who the All-Star Game is for, the players or the fans.‘ Suggesting that, if it were for the players, his getting voted in would be a bad thing. If it is for the fans, well, they should get the players they want to see.
I remember, even then, not caring about the All-Star game, but thinking it was wrong that Dodgers fans voted more than anyone else, so more of their players went than truly deserved.
Vlad is a personality who will make the game more fun. If you have voting, you sometimes get the wrong person.
Elsewhere in the organization, Ricky Tiedeman pitched today in the FCL, starting the road back, throwing one inning, 5 batters, 2 hits, 1 earned, 2 strikeouts.
I was curious to look; the Jays have had 11 successful sac bunts, one more than league average. That’s only 11 too many. The Rays are at the top with 22. The Yankees have just 1. I hate things that make me want to like Aaron Boone. Fortunately, there are many reasons not to like him.
We are fourth in sac flies with 21; the Royals are on top with 29, the A’s at the bottom with 12.
Full slate on tap tonight with plenty to dig into.
Here are my favorite MLB player props from the board, featuring some heavy hitters who have been seeing the ball extremely well lately.
See why Juan Soto and others are primed for big offensive performances on Tuesday, June 16.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Juan Soto
Over 1.5 total bases
-118
Kody Clemens
Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI
-113
Bobby Witt Jr.
Over 1.5 total bases
-128
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-118)
Run it back. Juan Soto did not cash for us last night, going 0-for-2 with two walks, but tonight sets up as a strong bounce-back spot.
The New York Mets slugger draws an even better matchup against Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer, who has struggled mightily with left-handed hitters. At home this season against lefties, opposing bats are hitting .362 with a .621 SLG and a .442 wOBA, while lifting the ball 60.5% of the time.
Singer also grades out as one of the weakest arms on the slate, sitting second-worst in Batters-Box’s current season dataset with poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout rate.
Soto brings one of the highest arsenal coverage profiles among elite-rated hitters on the slate, covering 92.2% of Singer’s pitch mix. He has also been heating up over the last stretch, posting a .922 OPS with 52.4% hard contact and a 9.5% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
The numbers point toward the over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs, but the price is steep. The cleaner approach is either taking his bases or going straight to a double or homer angle if you want more upside.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CINR, SNY
Kody Clemens Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-113)
Have I found my new favorite player? Maybe. He has only come through for me once so far, but Minnesota Twins outfielder Kody Clemens is in a strong spot against Texas Rangers right-hander Kumar Rocker, against whom he owns a 100% arsenal coverage.
Rocker has struggled at home against lefties, allowing a 70.6% elevation rate and 44.1% hard contact, while giving up a .425 slugging and .332 wOBA. Overall this season, left-handed hitters have posted a .302 xBA, .529 xSLG, and .359 xwOBA against him, while generating 53.2% hard contact.
Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Clemens has been rolling, hitting .345 with a .862 SLG and 1.229 OPS, along with a 50% hard contact rate and a 16% barrel rate.
Getting an elite-rated hitter who is swinging it like this, with this level of arsenal coverage, below -120 is a gift. I would take this up to -125 if I had to.
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: RSN, MNNT
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-128)
Mr. Bobby Witt Jr., the pride of the Kansas City Royals, shows up every single day for his team. Now, the question is, does he show up for us?
Witt has been locked in against left-handed pitching for a while now, posting a .321 average with a .921 OPS, along with 61.5% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate. He draws Washington Nationals southpaw Foster Griffin, who has struggled against right-handed bats this season.
Over his last 60 batters faced, those hitters are producing a 46.5% hard contact rate, 14% barrel rate, with a .335 xBA, .696 xSLG, and .341 xwOBA.
Against Griffin’s pitch mix, Witt carries a 92.7% arsenal coverage rating, per Batters-Box. He also grades out strong in this spot, and over the last three seasons in 54 strong-rated spots, he has cleared this prop 50% of the time.
I am interested here, but I would not chase this at a bad number. If you cannot get it below -130, I would rather pivot to his double or home run look straight instead.
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NATS, ROYL
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 220-382-35, +7.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 09: General Manager Mike Elias of the Baltimore Orioles watches the Orioles Hall of Fame ceremony before the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Athletics at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 09, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
Nearly halfway into the season, the Orioles remain a frustratingly inconsistent team. At times they look great and capable of beating the best teams. Other times they are unable to avoid making silly mistakes against lesser teams and they waste opportunities to stack up wins against that level of competition. At 34-39, it feels like they should be hopelessly out of the race, but, with the state of the AL being what it is this year, they are only 2.5 games out. If they can ever go on a 5+ game winning streak, they should be in a good position.
The trade deadline is still about a month and a half away. In this week’s survey, I want to know where you think this team will land in this back and forth. Will they stay close enough to be buyers, or are they going to fall out and end up as sellers for a second consecutive year?
There is also the Mike Elias track record to consider. He made the 2022 team into sellers even after their July resurgence, an unpopular decision that prompted him to say “it’s liftoff from here,” which I suspect nearly four years later he regrets having said. Even if Elias ends up buying, he’s unlikely to be as aggressive as fans would like. But that’s not the question. Just break it down: Do they buy or do they sell?
Recent Orioles play is probably going to lean the responses in one direction. In asking this question, I’m more interested in seeing how lopsided it is. Perhaps the votes will surprise me. It’s happened before.
George Lombard Jr. of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders exits the field before a Minor League Baseball game at Coca-Cola Park in Allentown, United States, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
It’s a good week when just one of the seven affiliates has a losing record, and that’s only because they lost to their sister club. There were a lot of sensational hitting performances this week on the farm, but that’s not to say the pitching slacked off either.
In fact, it was a really good week to be an under-the-radar prospect this week.
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Record: 34-34, 8.5 GB in the International League East after a 3-3 week against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies)
Run differential: +4
Coming up: Away @ Columbus Clippers (Guardians)
Things started pretty bleak this week for the RailRiders, who became even more shorthanded this past weekend after Jasson Domínguez’s rehab assignment was cut short on Friday. They went 1-3 entering the weekend, but rallied to win two consecutive one-run games to secure the series split.
With Domínguez and Spencer Jones filling roles up in the big leagues, there aren’t many intriguing bats to talk about. Tyler Hardman is starting to heat up, Duke Ellis has had some big swings lately, and Jonathan Ornelas is raking, but the storyline is George Lombard Jr. continuing to heat up. He’s starting to really drive the ball in the air and, after several near-misses with the long ball over the past few weeks, hit two in a row during Friday’s doubleheader. He’s up to a 106 wRC+ at the level.
Elmer Rodríguez drew the Tuesday/Sunday starts this week and combined to allow four runs in 11.1 innings. His strikeout rate was way down this week, but he threw enough strikes and limited damage to continue holding serve as “next man up.” Brendan Beck got screwed over with the suspended game on Thursday, only tossing 3.1 scoreless innings before the game was halted. Adam Kloffenstein struggled, while Dom Hamel tossed a rare quality start.
The bullpen was headlined by Carlos Lagrange, who served as the multi-inning piggyback for Rodríguez on both Tuesday and Sunday, combining to allow three runs across 5.2 innings with eight strikeouts to just one walk. He’s probably going to settle in at the 2-3 inning role going forward.
After him, it was up and down. Bradley Hanner and Yovanny Cruz took some bad outings on the chin, while guys like Dylan Coleman and Yerry De los Santos stepped up. We also got a Will Brian cameo, as he was briefly promoted midweek to strike out three in 1.1 scoreless innings in his Triple-A debut before being returned to Somerset.
Record: 35-28, 0.5 GB in the Eastern League Northeast after a 5-1 week against the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (Mets)
Run differential: +40
Coming up: Away @ Portland SeaDogs (Red Sox)
The quirks of the minor league schedule mean that, even though it’s June, it’s playoff hunt time for Somerset. The final week of the “first half” begins today, and they sit just a half game behind Hartford for an automatic playoff spot with six games to go. They held serve this past week, taking 5 of 6 from Binghamton with some great pitching, allowing three runs or fewer in four games.
With Jace Avina still out and Garrett Martin having his first homerless week since April, the offense has needed someone to step up in a big way. DJ Gladney (6-for-23, HR, 6 RBI, 2 2B) and Jackson Castillo (7-for-24, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 4 BB) have absolutely done that, with the highlight of the week coming when Gladney obliterated a ball 474 feet on Friday night.
As I said previously, it was a good week for pitching. Trent Sellers started them off with five two-run innings on Tuesday, Cade Smith tossed seven shutout innings on Wednesday in his best start of the season, Xavier Rivas pitched four shutout innings on Thursday, Jack Cebert allowed just one run in 5.1 innings on Friday, and Kyle Carr tossed a quality start on Saturday. Even the brief outings by Ben Hess (3.1 IP, 1 R), Chase Hampton (welcome back to Somerset!), and a rehabbing Alexander Cornielle in the piggyback system didn’t hurt.
There were some moving parts in the bullpen, as Harrison Cohen returned from a brief absence on Sunday, but at the cost of Chris Veach going down with an injury. That, along with Will Brian being sent to Scranton for a few days before returning, kinda just led to this being a silent week for these guys. Remember, they got three piggyback long-relief outings by Cebert, Rivas, and Chase Chaney behind guys like Cornielle, Hampton, and Hess, so there weren’t many innings to go around.
Record: 29-33, 10.5 GB in the South Atlantic League North after a 4-2 week against the Jersey Shore BlueClaws (Phillies)
Run differential: +1
Coming up: Away @ Rome Emperors (Braves)
After an absolutely miserable week to start June for the pitching staff, they bounced back pretty nicely against Jersey Shore this week, winning via shutout on Tuesday before a pair of 11-3 victories later in the week. They secured the series win with a 6-3 win on Sunday.
Kaeden Kent continued to hold serve as the team’s leadoff bat with a .300 average and not many extra-base hits. It was an absolutely massive week for Wilson Rodriguez (12-for-24, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 XBH), as the Puerto Rico native settles in midway through his first year in High-A. Eric Genther continued to slug in what’s been a big few weeks for him, while Josh Moylan cooled off after a multi-week heater. Enmanuel Tejada has also been a consistent on-base threat since he was promoted from Tampa in May.
The week started off with a great sign, as the struggling Bryce Cunningham finally looked like the player he was pre-injury last year with six shutout innings on Tuesday. Luis Serna followed things up by getting back on track with a quality start, Allen Facundo walked six but got through five innings with a no-decision, Rory Fox tossed a quality start of his own on Friday, and Sean Paul Liñan had a decent four-inning outing. Only starter who took it on the chin this week was Franyer Herrera on Saturday.
Nothing special from the pen this week. Jack Sokol took both a win and a loss, Brandon Decker continued to look good, and Brady Kirtner finally started to settle in. Tanner Bauman and Thomas Balboni Jr. exchanged good and bad outings, as well.
Record: 34-29, 5 GB in the Florida State League West after a 4-2 week against the Bradenton Marauders (Pirates)
Run differential: +30
Coming up: Home vs. Fort Myers Mighty Mussels (Twins)
It’s too late for the Tarpons to make a run at the first-half playoff spot, but if they can continue to ride this momentum into the second half, they’ll be playing in the postseason. In all four wins, they allowed three or fewer runs, and they did so in one of the two losses as well. The offense was down, but the pitching was just so good.
The big three continued to hit for Tampa, as Jackson Lovich, Hans Montero, and Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek all continued to hit, while Logan Maxwell is back entrenched in this lineup and hitting. Even JoJo Jackson, who had a mediocre May after a strong April, is starting to heat up. This lineup doesn’t have many holes right now, even if nobody is putting up a ridiculous slashline.
What a fun week for this rotation. Justin West only got three innings in on Tuesday, and Brennan Stuprich struggled on Sunday, but everyone else looked great. Thatcher Hurd got screwed over with a suspended game, but tossed three solid innings before Wyatt Parliament piggy-backed him with five two-run innings. JT Etheridge improved to 6-0 with five shutout innings. Henry Lalane had his fourth consecutive great start with six shutout innings with nine strikeouts. And to put the cherry on top, Tyler Boudreau struck out 11 in six strong innings on Saturday.
The bullpen continues to be buoyed by the strong performances of Jose Martinez and Pedro Rodriguez. Jose M. Rodriguez is overcoming some inconsistent command, Parker Seay and Greysen Carter are stringing together scoreless outings after scoreless outing, and even once-struggling relievers like Jordarlin Mendoza and Jose Ledesma have slowly gotten their gargantuan ERAs down. We also got a rehab assignment from former Somerset closer Kevin Stevens, who was arguably the best reliever in the system in 2024.
Record: 17-14, 5 GB in the FCL North after a 4-1 week.
Run differential: +24
Now, that’s more like it. What a great week for the FCL squad, who might not be any closer to the FCL Blue Jays at the top, but they’re finally playing a more consistent brand of baseball.
Remember last week when I said Wilberson De Pena fell back to earth? Well, he’s back on Jupiter. In five games this week, he went 9-for-23 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, and two doubles. When you add in Dexters Peralta’s tremendous growth in the game power department and Jose Castro returning from a multi-week absence to start slugging the crap outta the ball, this looks like the best offense in the Florida Complex League.
On the pitching end, it’s still a big gap between Omar Gonzalez and everyone else, but an intriguing face popped up on a rehab assignment. 2023 10th-rounder Brian Hendry made his season debut after missing all of 2025, and it wasn’t that long ago when he pitched to a 0.48 ERA in seven starts with Hudson Valley in 2024 before injuries ravaged him. He’s 26 now, but can look no further than Brendan Beck for a late bloomer.
DSL Yankees: Record: 5-6, 3.5 GB in DSL East after a 4-1 week Run differential: +33
DSL Bombers: Record: 3-8, 4 GB in DSL Southeast after a 2-3 week Run differential: -29
After a truly miserable opening week, both DSL teams got some momentum this week. Across both affiliates, a number of outstanding hitting performances are rising from the ashes, including Isaias Castillo, Stiven Marinez, and Juan Martinez. While Mani Cedeno, the most prominent name down here, isn’t lighting the world on fire, he has a .943 OPS. Just wait for the run environment to calm down.
The pitching is still pretty bad, but there are bright spots. Jhosneyker Colina has allowed just one run in 10.2 innings with 13 strikeouts. Yunior Jerez hasn’t allowed an earned run in nine innings with 12 strikeouts. The samples are too small for anyone else to emerge, especially with the leaguewide walk problems, so check back next week.
You might not know who this young man from Santo Domingo is, but you might want to learn the name.
Castillo was born in June 2008, which even makes a college student like me feel old. He signed with the Yankees in late January 2025 for $750,000 as the third-largest bonus in the class behind Mani Cedeno and Ruben Castillo. He had a fairly unremarkable debut season in 2025, hitting just one home run, eight extra-base hits, and posting just a 90 wRC+ in 27 games with a high strikeout rate. He was barely 17 at the time, but there’s a reason he wasn’t on many radars.
Well, just 11 games into the season, he’s already exceeded pretty much every counting stat from last year as he celebrated his 18th birthday on Monday. He’s been the best hitter in the Dominican Summer League so far, blasting same-age pitching to a degree we rarely see.
The sample size is still very small, and we have almost two entire months to go in the DSL season, but this is the guy you should be keeping your eyes on down in the D.R.
Justin Steele throws during spring camp in Mesa in February | | Getty Images
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As you all know, the Cubs have had quite a number of injuries to the starting rotation this year.
The Opening Day rotation of Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shōta Imanaga, Edward Cabrera and Jameson Taillon is in tatters. Of those five, only Imanaga has not missed a start (in fact, he is among a number of starters tied for the MLB lead with 15 starts). Horton’s out for the year. Cabrera, Boyd and Taillon have all missed time, though Cabrera’s injury, a blister, had him out only the minimum 15 days and he threw well against the Rockies on his return last week.
Boyd was also supposed to return last week, but had a setback. Taillon’s injury likely has him out until after the All-Star break.
And then there’s Justin Steele, who also had a setback in recovery from Tommy John surgery last year. Originally, it had been hoped he’d be back around now, but at this point Steele is likely out until at least August. I
It’s possible none of these guys will help the team later this year. Or maybe one or more will come back and stabilize the rotation. It’s fortunate that Ben Brown and Javier Assad have stepped up, something that gives the team real starter depth.
So in this week’s SB Nation Reacts survey, I’m asking which of Boyd, Steele or Taillon will help the club the most this year. Or maybe you think none of them will. Vote in the survey below and I’ll have the results here later this week.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 13: Mauricio Dubon #14 of the Atlanta Braves looks on after the fifth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on June 13, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
(Note: Stats here through June 14, which only matters for comparing the Braves to other teams. In an ideal world, I’d either do this on the 16th, or during the day on the 14th, but we live in something very far from an ideal world.)
I have a colleague that uses the word “correction” a lot. It’s notable because I don’t think she really means “correction” when she says it, but she’s incredible precise with her language, so it stands out. This seems kind of opaque without context, but essentially, any time something breaks a trend or is an unusual micro-pattern within a broader, different macro-pattern, there she goes with “correction.” 2008? Economic correction. Post-pandemic drop in crime? Correction. Maybe “correction” is right, or at least fine. In any case, when talking about the Braves in June, you can see why the word haunts me a bit.
The bottom line is that whether the Braves were good, bad, or mediocre, a 6-5 record over two weeks of play isn’t weird. 6-5 is like, the default record. If a team constantly went 6-5, i.e., splitting ten games and winning the 11th, that’s basically 15 “free” wins over a .500 record, which means an 88-win season. Incidentally, 88 wins is not too far off from what the Braves were projected to do preseason (90ish by FanGraphs’ Steamer/ZiPS blend, lower by stuff like ZiPS alone). So, 6-5 — don’t call it a correction. Or… do?
Because, well, before June, the Braves weren’t playing at an 88-win pace. They also weren’t getting particularly lucky in racking up the victories. They also went 5-1 through their first two series in June… only to run into a very unfortunate road trip that saw them lose likely their two most talented (or at least, highest-ceiling, highest-variance because of that high ceiling) players to injury, and go 1-4 in the process. Whoops.
Is it a correction to go from a 108-win pace to a 105-win pace? (No?) What about from a 110-win pace to a 105-win pace (also probably not). What about from a projected 95-win team estimated to play at an 87-win clip the rest of the way on May 31, to a projected 94-win team estimated to play at an 86-win clip the rest of the way, as of June 15? Well, now I’m just throwing out a bunch of rhetorical questions. The bottom line: the Braves had a bad week. They didn’t bank wins at their previous, breakneck pace. They also suffered some injuries that will make winning harder in the future. Both of those kind of sucked, but they still have MLB’s best record. I guess the message is that if you expect them to play as they have, chances are, your perspective could use a correction. If you expect them to play as a good-not-great team given their surfeit of injuries and the usual talent variations, chances are you won’t get whiplash… and if you do, it’ll be the pleasant kind.
How did the Braves do recently?
Well, that was a very long, 500-word intro. Right to the stats, then. Believe it or not, going 6-5 for a month is a top half performance in MLB. Their production, though, was kinda worse — given what they did, you’d expect them to have gone 5-6 or maybe even 4-7. So, it could’ve been worse. You’ll see what I mean, namely…
After finishing in the top ten in position player value in both April and May, the Braves are literally dead last in MLB in position player value so far in June. They’re 29th in batting outputs, 28th in batting inputs, and 12th in defensive value.
On the flip side, the pitching has actually been pretty good. Or, at least, fortunate. Seventh in fWAR (rotation 19th, bullpen eighth, kind of a weird combo but there it is)… but a rankwise breakdown of ninth in ERA-, fifth in FIP-, and 15th in xFIP-. HR/FB on the pitching side comes to the rescue when the bats slumber, I guess. Thanks, HR/FB!
Using game-by-game odds, the Braves should’ve gone somewhere around 5-6 or 6-5, so what they actually did isn’t that surprising. But again, that’s because game-by-game odds will generally slam every team in that .500ish range, since that’s kind of how baseball works. That said, in true double-you-tee-eff fashion, the Braves somehow both lost the game where they were most-favored in this two-week stretch (Chris Sale against the Jays at home), but won the game where they were least-favored (Martin Perez against the Mets in New York). Baseball, man. Weirdly, the Braves are 1-2 in the three games with their pre-game odds over 60 percent, but they’re also 2-3 in games with their pre-game odds below 42 percent.
How did the Braves do recently?
Look, you can’t be dead last at a big thing like position player production for two weeks and not have it mess with your rankings a bit. But, given that two months were in the books before this span, maybe only a bit. Every team has a stumble for a week, it’s a long season.
The Braves are now seventh in position player value. They’re third in batting inputs, seventh in batting outputs, and seventh in defensive production.
The Braves are now 12th in pitching value (19th rotation, third bullpen). They have baseball’s best ERA- (still), but are 12th in FIP- and 10th in xFIP-.
How are the hitters doing?
Heh. Well…
It was a good two weeks for Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubon… and throw Matt Olson in too if you count “getting super-lucky without doing much to earn it,” too. Aside from Michael Harris II, it was a bad-to-horrific two weeks for everyone else, which is how you get that last-in-MLB-for-two-weeks demerit. Also, note that of the guys who didn’t meet the 17 PA cutoff I’m using for these biweekly check-ins, everyone else was horrendous, too, except for Eli White. The Braves were basically getting half a lineup’s worth of anything over these last two weeks, and that’s not enough.
For the season as a whole, the performance is still pretty strong. Harris and Olson continue to play like surefire All-Stars, Dubon’s defensively-buoyed profile is working as his bat has been fine, and Albies, who legitimately hit well over these two weeks, is combining luck and a defensive resurgence to getting back to good rather than merely playable-ish. Still, the awful June so far has been a drag on a lot of guys. If this keeps up, the Braves will probably have to explore more than just the usual starter/reliever/right-handed bat at the Trade Deadline — they’ll probably stick with Austin Riley, but Yastrzemski might be playing himself out of a permanent strong side platoon fixture, and Dominic Smith can’t afford too many more two-week stretches like the one he just had before he tumbles into 2026 Riley territory value-wise.
Sandy Leon, man. He’s not there to hit but the hitting has been… really far away from basically anyone else, even when the team is struggling.
Another shoutout to Dubon, who not only led the position players in WPA in this two-week stretch, but literally tripled the next-closest WPA tally… which belongs to White, of all people.
How are the pitchers doing?
Not much surprising here. Martin Perez (from the top rope, somehow) switched places with Bryce Elder in the “huh, that was a really good two starts” this time around.
The Braves’ rotation is, in the end, in a really weird place. Chris Sale is Chris Sale, no need for further discussion but for continued gawking at how good he is. Bryce Elder and Martin Perez have both been surprising in their own way; even if Elder is regressing, maybe Perez will simply swap places with him in terms of an arm being more-than-useful for longer than a two-week stretch. Grant Holmes and Spencer Strider were both awful in two outings, but despite Holmes’ horrendous performance after nine batters and the Strider Saga we’ve all come to know and dread, those guys aren’t doing horrendously on the season… except for the homers. On the season as a whole, the Braves haven’t had horrendous HR/FB problems… but the rotation is creeping up there, given what happened to Elder, Holmes, and Strider over the last few weeks.
On the bullpen front, there’s not much of note, other than Didier Fuentes continuing to thrive. Both he and Robert Suarez had three shutdowns and no meltdowns while making five appearances each. Their efforts are a big reason as to how the Braves were even able to manage to go 6-5 in a stretch where only one starter (and not Chris Sale) amassed positive WPA while pitching.
Here’s a weirdo factoid: the Braves have four relievers that already have 0.8 fWAR or more. There are 18 of those guys in baseball right now, period. A majority of teams don’t even have one. The Braves do have this odd issue, where they probably need to use the bullpen more relative to their starters given the disarray in the rotation, but there’s such a steep dropoff between that fearsome quartet and everyone else that you can totally see them just tread water for a bit before they they either feel like they need to wheel hard toward a change in personnel and management, or someone emerges to fill the gap.
Anyway, see you at the end of the month, at which point I hopefully won’t be talking about any full-fledged swoon.
Toronto Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease continues to rack up strikeouts at an elite rate, and a favorable matchup against a swing-and-miss-prone Boston Red Sox lineup makes Over 7.5 strikeouts my favorite play tonight.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, June 16.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (+115)
Dylan Cease has eclipsed this total in five straight outings, averaging 9.4 strikeouts per start.
This matches up well against a Boston Red Sox lineup that sits 20th in xBA against the slider with a 31.7% whiff rate, the pitch that Cease uses as his out-away pitch with a 46.8% whiff on it.
I’d buy Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts down to +105.
COVERS INTEL: Cease's 13.63 K/9 leads all MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings in 2026.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
The Blue Jays lineup matches up well to succeed against BoSox starter Payton Tolle. His most-used pitch is a four-seamer, which the Jays have crushed with a .271 average, the second-best mark in baseball. Add Over 4.5 hits allowed for Tolle.
The player who profiles best against Tolle’s pitch-mix is Kazuma Okamoto. He owns a .471 average against the four-seamer when facing LHP. Add Okamoto Over 0.5 hits.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
Payton Tolle Over 4.5 hits allowed
Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto)
Tolle hasn’t allowed a home run in four straight starts, so I’ll make this a half-unit wager.
However, Okamoto is one bat that profiles well against Tolle’s pitch mix.
Okamoto leads the Jays with 15 homers this season and owns a .360 average, a .640 slug-rate, and a 61.2% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer and sinker.
This positions him well for success today as the Boston hurler has a 64% usage rate on those pitches.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 34-35, +4.05 units
SGPs: 13-56, +3.35 units
HR picks: 11-58, +1.4 units
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Moneyline: Toronto -120 | Boston +100
Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+140) | Boston +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info
Location
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date
Tuesday, 6-16-2026
First pitch
6:45 p.m. ET
TV
Sportsnet, NESN
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Dylan Cease (3-3, 2.91 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher
Payton Tolle (3-3, 2.70 ERA)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 27: General manager Dana Brown of the Houston Astros talks to Joe Espada #19 before the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Minute Maid Park on July 27, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Astros entered June with a chance to make up ground in the AL West and in the AL Wild Card race with 27 games against a soft schedule.
Houston would play 21 of its 27 games in June against teams with losing records. Having gotten Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve back, and looking at a mid-June return of Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz (both scheduled to debut today), the Astros were seemingly getting healthy at the right time.
However the pitching has once again faltered. Mike Burrows and Kai-Wei Teng have both struggled through the month. Despite being given a 9 run lead before he threw his first pitch, Tatsuya Imai imploded in his last start and wasn’t able to complete the first inning.
The resulting starting pitching failures have left the Astros a meager 6-7 this month, as they continue to burn season clock mired in mediocrity instead of making a charge.
Do you believe the Astros still have a charge left in them, or is this finally the year the injuries are too much to overcome?
Will the Astros be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?
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NEW YORK, NY - MAY 02: Cody Bellinger #35 and Jazz Chisholm Jr. #13 of the New York Yankees high five after hitting a home run in the fifth inning during the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on May 2, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
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Yesterday, MLB released its first update on All-Star Game balloting results. To no one’s surprise, Aaron Judge leads all outfielders in voting, as the Yankees’ superstar remains well-regarded enough—and with 17 homers in 59 games, no schmuck—to at least be in good shape to make the American League squad despite the rib injury that’s currently keeping him away from the field. Ben Rice is also second among AL first basemen, trailing only the immensely popular Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays. In a more just world, Rice would be neck-and-neck with A’s slugger Nick Kurtz (who has a 173 wRC+ to Rice’s 171; Vlad’s at 108), but that’s what the results are as of Monday.
Regardless, Judge and Rice appear to be in good shape to receive spots on the AL roster at the Midsummer Classic, whether it’s by fan vote for Judge, or player balloting/managerial selection for Rice. Sophomore standout Cam Schlittler is a near-lock to go to Philadelphia for the festivities as well, and he could even start for the Junior Circuit. But what about beyond them?
If the Yankees have any All-Stars beyond Judge, Rice, and Schlittler, then Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are probably the most likely candidates. Bellinger has been New York’s most consistent hitter outside of Rice thus far in 2026 (130 wRC+) and is in contention for his first All-Star appearance since his MVP-winning 2019 with the Dodgers. He ranked third among AL outfielders in voting, and if that holds, then he will advance to Phase 2. So Bellinger could get the nod via fan vote or another selection.
As for Chisholm, he started 2026 off ice-cold in his own bid for a third career All-Star selection. As recently as May 12th, he had .600 OPS and a 70 wRC+ in 42 games. Since then, however, he’s surged with a .911 OPS and a 152 wRC+ in his last 25 games. The AL second base field is especially weak this year, so that might be enough to get Jazz to Philly. He has an outside chance at advancing to Phase 2 of the vote because even though he’s fifth, he’s only 57,150 votes behind second place. It’s a crowded field of mediocrity.
Would Jazz and/or Cody get your votes? Let us know in the poll below and we’ll check out the results later this week.
It's been a long road for Dustin May from GIF hero to reliable starting pitcher. Videos of his hard-running sinker and sweeping breaking ball dazzled many baseball fans for years, but he had pitched over 50 innings just once in an MLB season heading into last year. Even in a relatively healthy 2025 season, he had his worst year from a results perspective, so what May has done this year in his first season with the Cardinals has caught many by surprise. After seven years, it seems that we may finally be witnessing the Dustin May breakout.
When the right-hander debuted back in 2019, he was coming off a solid but not exceptional minor league career. His ratios had always been good, but the strikeout numbers never seemed to match what people saw with their eyes: a 6'6" mass of lanky limbs and flowing red hair, hurling 98 mph sinkers with 19 inches of run in on right-handed hitters and 87 mph breaking balls with nearly 16 inches of movement in the other direction. It was so easy to imagine May leaving MLB hitters in fits.
Yet, it never seemed to happen. Mostly due to injuries.
After pitching over 140 innings split between the majors and minors in 2019, May was healthy for all of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, throwing 56 innings with a 2.57 ERA, but the strikeouts weren't quite on par with the league average. In 2021, he began the season in the Dodgers' starting rotation before injuring his elbow and having to undergo Tommy John surgery in May of that year. When he returned in 2022, he pitched well in the minors and threw 30 MLB innings before back injuries shut him down for the rest of the season. He was, again, healthy at the start of 2023 and made nine starts before a right forearm and flexor tendon injury ended his season and required surgery and significant rehab.
That's when the injuries got even scarier. While May was completing a rehab program in the Dodgers’ training facility at Camelback Ranch,he suffered a torn esophagus when a piece of salad got stuck in his throat while he was out to dinner. May had to be rushed into surgery and then remained in the hospital for another 11 days before being released. Not only was the incident frightening in its own right, but it further delayed his return from elbow surgery, and he missed the entire 2024 season.
As a result, not much was expected of May when he returned to the mound in 2025. It was just nice to see him healthy and pitching. He went on to make 23 starts for the Dodgers and Red Sox, pitching a career high 132.1 innings before missing the final weeks of the regular season and the Wild Card Series due to elbow inflammation. On one hand, a 4.96 ERA and 1.42 WHIP were disappointing, but on the other hand, May finally cleared an important mental hurdle and threw a full MLB season. Almost.
"I mean, it definitely helped [to throw a full season]. I mean, I still didn't have a full season, which is kind of irritating," May said before the Cardinals' final game against the Mets in New York last week. "I got kind of close and then fell off right at the end, but it was definitely good to go and throw the most that I had thrown in a season."
Yet, there was still more to accomplish heading into 2026, and while May came into the season feeling good, the early results were not kind to him. In his first three starts of the year, May had a 9.45 ERA while posting an underwhelming 17% strikeout rate and 7.4% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). It seemed like the 28-year-old was heading for another disappointing season before he made a small pitch mix change, leaning into his cutter more than he had in years.
Over the first three starts, May threw almost 31% four-seam fastballs and just 11% cutters. Over his next 11 starts, he has reduced his fastball usage to 25% and upped his cutter usage to 24.5%. Since then, May has a 2.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 24.1% strikeout rate, and nearly 11.1% SwStr%.
"It was just kind of something where we liked the shape of [the cutter], and we didn't think we were using it enough," explained May. "Then once I started to use it more, it definitely weakened contact a lot. I feel like it's a very good, 'get me back into count' pitch. I feel like it's a good get-me-out-of-a-jam pitch. It's been big for me so far."
May's belief that his cutter weakened contact is backed up by the data as well. On the season, the pitch has given up far less hard contact than his four-seam fastball. May has a 25% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) and 3.3% barrel rate allowed on his cutter compared to a 41.3% ICR and 6.8% barrel rate on the four-seamer.
Because of May’s lower arm slot, his four-seamer has below-average vertical movement and a lot more horizontal movement than normal. That's a problem for lefties because the four-seamer will tail out over the plate a bit more, kind of like a sinker. As a result, lefties hit May’s four-seamer harder and swing and miss less often, which is why, over this recent stretch, May has made his cutter his primary fastball to lefties, throwing it nearly 30% of the time, while knocking his four-seam usage down around 26%. Specifically, the cutter has been a pitch that he’s able to use 67% of the time early in counts to lefties and get ahead, which then sets up his sweeper, which has a 32% PutAway Rate to lefties this year (that measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout).
The cutter has provided May with more value than just weakening contact against lefties. In this 11-start stretch, he’s also throwing the cutter 16% to righties, using it early in the count 71.4% of the time. Despite it being an early-count pitch for righties, it actually has a 23% swinging strike rate over these last 11 starts, likely because May is so sinker and four-seamer focused to righties that when he throws a cutter that’s four mph slower than his other fastballs and with a different movement profile, hitters are lost: "Righties are probably so geared up for the sinker in, so anything that's kind of starting in the same line and then just kind of holds it and kind of darts left at the end instead of barreling it on their hands, they're probably like, "Oh s@#t, like I gotta swing, like that's in the zone, and then it's like already too far."
Not only has the cutter itself gotten additional whiffs for May, but it has also improved his four-seamer performance as well. In this 11-start stretch, May's four-seamer is allowing just a 27% Ideal Contact Rate to righties and has not given up a single barrel. He's also gotten more swing and miss on the four-seamer, with a 14% SwStr% to righties, mostly because he’s locating it up in the zone over 70% of the time during this run.
As May explains, the four-seamer has "a pretty similar spin profile [to the cutter], so coming out of the hand, it looks pretty much the same. Then it holds its line a little bit better, so I feel like throwing it in the relative locations that the cutters are, which is more targeted at the upper zone, I feel like it opens up a lot." In this case, elevating the four-seamer over the top of the cutter has opened up plenty of whiffs for May against right-handed hitters.
That deliberate attention to location has been a focal point for May this season: "I for sure think it's location-based for me at the moment. The heater's been playing very well, and being able to know where I want to throw it, getting it into location, has been good. So, I'm just trying to tack onto that."
In fact, May is getting more strikes on all three of his fastball variations this season. His sinker may have a slightly lower zone rate, but the strike rate has gone from 68% last year to 73% this year. Similarly, since the cutter is inducing more whiffs, its zone rate is down, but its strike rate is up from 66.7% in 2025 to 73.1% this year, and the four-seam fastball has improved in both, with a 3.5% increase in zone rate and a 8.3% increase in strike rate. If you wanted to use Location+, which is a FanGraphs stat that measures a pitcher's relative success in hitting his spots, May's four-seam fastball Location+ has improved from 92 last year to 102 this year (99 is average), and his cutter has gone from a 91 Location+ to a 112, which is a massive shift.
That improvement is not lost on May, who knows that his recent success is because he's "locating [his] heaters pretty well, trying to keep a good mix with those, and just trying to figure out the good spots to throw the breaking balls." It's those breaking balls that have been a larger struggle for May over his career. In part, May's struggle with his breaking balls has been because of just how much they move. It's a bit of a gift and a curse. May gets tremendous movement on his breaking balls, but that means he constantly needs to think about where to target them so that they land close enough to the strike zone to induce a swing.
Last year, May's most-used breaking ball was a sweeper, which had a Stuff+ grade of 108 (99 is also average) but a Location+ of just 96. The pitch had nearly 18 inches of horizontal run at 85 mph and seemed like it should have killed righties, but it had a below average 11.7% SwStr% against them in part because the zone rate was just 1.4% above average, and the strike rate was 2% above league average for a sweeper. He also had a 6.7% mistake rate on the pitch, which was 2.5% above league average and is supported by the fact that May threw far more middle-middle sweepers than average.
He had the same issue in 2023 when his most-used breaking pitch was a curveball that had 15 inches of horizontal movement at 86.2 mph. It was really just an earlier iteration of his current sweeper, but it had a Stuff+ grade of 136 and a Location+ of 85. That season, May had just a 17th percentile strike rate on his curveball, so it posted just an 8% SwStr% despite its elite movement profile.
"The sinker, the heater, the cutter, are all pitches I'm kind of able to kind of throw kind of where I want to," admitted May. "I'm still trying to figure out how to throw the slider like I was last year, because last year was super easy out of hand, but it's been pretty bad so far this year."
Last year was the first year that May threw his new slider. He scrapped his curveball last year and tweaked it into more of a sweeper, taking off over one mph but adding about three inches of horizontal movement and removing about an inch of drop. Last season, that new sweeper became his most-used pitch overall at 39.3% and posted a 44.3% zone rate and 61.5% strike rate, as mentioned above. This season, that zone rate has fallen to 36.8%, but the strike rate is only slightly down to 58.4% in part because he's getting far more swings and misses on it.
May is now on his third team in the last year after being traded from the Dodgers to the Red Sox in July and then signing with the Cardinals over the winter. With each new organization comes new coaching staffs and new ideas for how to attack hitters or utilize a pitch mix. In May's case, moving to the Cardinals didn't mean a drastic overhaul of his arsenal but simply new discussions about how to optimize it.
"My pitch shapes are kind of what they are; they're good, so there hasn't been any talk for anything shape-wise," he revealed. "It's just more so usage-wise, and trying to figure out the right time to use [a pitch], and the ability to like get back into counts or get ahead in counts, and then finish it off."
The added swing and miss on his sweeper has likely been tied to that shift in usage. Even if May is not happy with the feel and location of his sweeper, seeing a 15.6% swinging strike rate on the pitch after posting an 11.7% mark last year is encouraging. A big part of that is because May has leaned into it as his two-strike pitch, throwing it 49.2% of the time in two-strike counts this year versus 34.3% last year. The biggest jump has come against lefties, where he is using it nearly 55% of the time as a two-strike offering to them, after doing so 33% of the time last year.
May has been able to utilize this approach because his curveball has been a nice surprise for him after bringing it back this season. The pitch is now 83 mph (down three mph from 2023 when he last used it), with 10 inches of horizontal movement and nearly 19 inches of drop, meaning that May has made it more of a vertical breaking pitch to pair with his more horizontal sweeper. It's a pitch May uses only 7% of the time this season, but it's one he believes has been a key to his success.
"I feel like the curveball opens a lot of doors, and I'm very fine with where my arsenal is at right now, and how it's playing," May admitted. "Being able to flip a curveball in for an early strike, and then trying to get a swing and miss with the sliders... That was kind of the whole idea behind it; it was never like 'Let's use this as like a big pitch for this year,' but it's been really good, so it's definitely opened up some eyes for myself. If I can locate this, then I'm definitely gonna get some swing and miss on it, so just being able to kind of feel that out as the year's gone on and kind of find the right situations to throw it and not overexpose it."
That last part is crucial to May's maturity as a pitcher. It would be easy to understand why a pitcher would see a pitch performing well and decide to keep throwing it. Make the hitters show that they can hit your pitch. However, May has come to realize that some pitches are better in complementary roles. The curve is one of those pitches. It has been hit relatively hard this year, with a 50% Ideal Contact Rate allowed and a .400 average and .459 wOBA; however, it also has a 22% called strike rate against lefties, over 4% better than league average. He uses the pitch 75% of the time early in a count to lefties and can steal those key strikes to get him ahead in the count; yet, relying on it too much would leave him open to allowing more hard contact.
"I feel like the, the more that I would expose [the curveball], the more that it would probably show that it's not needed to be thrown that much, and it's more of like, oh, there it is, and then it's more just to keep it in their head."
Right now, May is certainly in hitters' heads. He has always been an imposing figure on the mound, with his lanky frame, wild hair, and elite pure stuff; yet, the results have never matched the image. His strikeout rate during his entire Dodgers career was just over 22%. He had only twice posted a swinging strike rate over 10%, and it was in two seasons where he didn't even pitch more than 30 innings. Yet, here he is with an 11-start stretch where he's missing bats comfortably above the MLB average and pitching like one of the better arms in baseball.
"I'm always an open ear to listen to stuff, but I feel like I've got a pretty good knowledge about myself to figure out what's good and what's bad. When I'm going good, I know I've got good stuff."
At this point, it would be hard for anybody to disagree.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 14: Manager Walt Weiss reacts with Drake Baldwin #30 and Mike Yastrzemski #18 of the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Truist Park on April 14, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The players’ protest of Pride Night reminded me of country musician Morgan Wallen walking off of the Saturday Night Live set and posting to social media “Get me to God’s country.” It was such an odd protest, but it did the task of 1) informing me of Morgan Wallen’s existence (and I don’t claim that I’m too cool for school in that regard, I just haven’t heard anything new in a long time for lots of reasons) and 2) reminding me of the awkward — yet effective — social protests that evangelicals love to do. But why am I thinking of Morgan Wallen at a time like this?
… But, like, SNL invited you on the show, Morgan. What are you complaining about? And your social media post was “Get me to God’s country” overlayed on an image of your private plane. I’m at a loss… oh, right. It’s not supposed to make sense beyond conveying disapproval and being vaguely disruptive. I guess waiting until the very end of the show is the least disruptive disruption you could do to make sure you keep getting invited to these mainstream things, but the shot at New York? Oh, right. That’s for “your base” (he also sells t-shirts with that phrase). Successful people of faith have decided to lead by taking shots at the institutions which have propped them up. Fair enough, I guess. And, it makes sense. If some people of faith take issue with “lifestyles,” then regions of land seems like an emotionally consistent extension.
Okay, not only are Vitello and Wallen friends, one of Wallen’s songs is called “‘98 Braves” — okay, now we’re back on track. This is a series preview about the San Francisco Giants traveling to Atlanta for a three-game series. That song’s about a great team coming up short anyway. From 106-56 to losing to the Padres in the NLCS. (Stares in 1993 Giants). Atlanta’s coming off a 2025 which fell far short of expectations in a much more dramatic way in that they went 76-86. But with a championship in recent memory and a well-managed organization, the fandom certainly thought a run like the 90s teams was in progress.
Well, maybe it is. Last year seems to have been merely an anomaly. Sort of like 2013 was for the championship era Giants. Atlanta’s lineup is excellent, led by Drake Baldwin (158 wRC+), who’s sort of their Bryce Eldridge (sarcasm). Matt Olson continues to be outstanding (team leading 20 HR along with a 143 wRC+), Michael Harris is having a season on par with his sublime 2022 season (when he was 21) where he had a 137 wRC+ (it’s currently 134), Ozzie Albies is having his best season since 2023 (113 wRC+), Ronald Acuna has stopped being a slugger but he’s still a tough out (.373 OBP, 14.8 BB%), and, a trio of former Giants are buttressing all of this talent with solid performances..
Mauricio Dubon (1.5 fWAR) is sort of a dude on this team. Last week, he got this glowing writeup in The Athletic where he sounds a whole lot more confident than he did in his younger days with the team:
“It’s funny because sometimes ‘Oh lefty-righty matchup,’ I think that’s a bunch of bulls—,” Dubón said. “I hit everybody, and (Braves manager Walt Weiss) knows that. For him to give me the trust and go out there and perform, it’s good when the manager has your back.”
Mike Yastrzemski got off to a disastrous start (.200/.258/.252 through May 9th), but has taken off over the past month (.290/.421/.516 since).
Dominic Smith (106 wRC+) is their DH but rather famously, he hit a walk-off grand slam in his first game.
So, keep an eye on those guys.
Meanwhile, the headline is pretty dramatic. A sweep at the hands of these Atlantans is not a foregone conclusion. The Giants took 2 out of 3 last year in a down year, but also 2 out of 3 in 2024. Sure, the Braves have won the series in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, but it’s not like the Giants were good in 2024 and 2025. They’re even worse now. Does that mean they have the Braves right where they want them?
Who: San Francisco Giants (29-43) at Atlanta Braves (46-25) Where: Truist Park | Cobb County, Georgia When: Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday at 4:15pm PT National broadcasts: None
Projected starters Tuesday: Adrian Houser (RHP 2-6, 5.54 ERA) vs. Grant Holmes (RHP 4-2, 4.05 ERA) Wednesday: Robbie Ray (LHP 4-6, 4.42 ERA) vs. JR Ritchie (RHP 1-1, 3.82 ERA) Thursday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-7, 4.24 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (LHP 5-3, 2.90 ERA)
Dubon: He’s hitting .308/.357/.564 here in June with 3 homers and a stolen base. He has a 7% walk rate and 14% strikeout rate over this same stretch (43 PA), too.
Yaz & Dom Smith: Yaz is hitting just .138 over his last 11 games while Dom Smith is hitting .121. Do the Giants know them well enough to keep their bad times rolling or did all that familiarity disappear with the coaching staff turnover?
Giants
Bryce Eldridge: I’d very much like to see what he could do in Truist Park and against the two worst starters in Atlanta’s rotation. Grant Holmes is sporting a 5.26 FIP thanks to a 1.8 HR/9 and JR Ritchie has a 5.15 FIP in part because of a 1.2 HR/9 but mainly a 5.3 BB/9. The Giants might lose every game 9-3, but if all three games feature a 3-run dinger from the rookie, that’d be great.
Robbie Ray: His trade value is quite low, but a solid start against a great team could help salvage some of it.
Rafael Devers: I wrote this scathing piece about how he probably wasn’t going to be much better than a league average hitter (he’s at 95 wRC+ right now) and I would like to eat some crow on this because I’d hate for the only time that happens this season to be because Luis Arraez became an All-Star second baseman in part because of his defense. For the same reasons that Eldridge might thrive, Devers should, too.
Tony Vitello watch
You know, I should mention that Atlanta’s manager is a first timer, too, only he’s former Oakland Athletic Walt Weiss, who has been a longtime major league coach. He sort of backed into the job by default after Brian Snitker announced his retirement, but, you know what? He’s here and thriving.
It was finally a profitable week with home runs, and I need that momentum to carry over into today.
I'm hitting some big-name MLB player props that, despite their short HR prices, are still showing expected value.
Juan Soto's projections are off the charts and make him worth a home run bet at his current price. Nick Kurtz has been the best home run hitter in baseball over the last 30 days and still has some meat on the bone at his current odds to go deep.
Plus, I've found a home run prop for bargain hunters in Zack Gelof.
These are my favorite home run bets for Tuesday, June 16.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Juan Soto
+222
Nick Kurtz
+232
Zack Gelof
+517
💲Today's HR parlay
+4620
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+222)
It's not often bettors get +EV on a +222 home run prop, but THE BAT is projecting 0.43 home runs from Juan Soto today, which is a massive number and leads all hitters on the slate by a substantial margin.
Great American Ball Park is going to help any hitter, but Soto also gets a plus matchup against right-hander Brady Singer, who owns the seventh-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days. He's also struggling to miss bats at home, posting just a 4.9 K/9 on his own mound.
Soto has been scorching the ball lately, ranking 14th in Blast Contact% over the last 30 days. Only Nick Kurtz has hit more home runs (10) than Soto over that stretch. This is a buy to +180.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Reds.TV, SNY
Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+232)
I'm staying with the chalk in Sacramento, but even at +232, Nick Kurtz is still showing value per the projections at Covers. Kurtz projects as the second-most likely hitter to go deep today and carries a fair price below +200.
Kurtz leads all hitters with 10 home runs over the last 30 days and owns the fourth-best slugging percentage over that stretch. He's benefited from plenty of home games, and during the Athletics' current nine-game homestand, he has gone deep six times in just 35 plate appearances.
It's the best hitting environment on the slate today, with 85-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out to center field. He'll face Mitch Keller and a Pittsburgh bullpen that owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks.
Kurtz has also already taken Keller deep once in just two career at-bats against the Pittsburgh starter.
It's not a long price, but today's theme is elite bats that are still showing expected value.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Home run pick: Zack Gelof (+517)
Zack Gelof might not be the first name that comes up when talking about the power in the Athletics lineup, but he is slugging .600 over his last 13 games with three home runs and a 164 wRC+. He is also +517 to go deep today in arguably the best home run environment on the board.
That's a big difference compared to teammates like Nick Kurtz, who is priced shorter than +200 in some spots.
The launching pad that is Sutter Health Park is helping everyone these days, and the 85-degree temperatures are the hottest on the slate. Gelof is hitting 40% of his balls to center field, where the double-digit winds are providing a boost today, and more than 50% of his batted balls are getting in the air.
This home run has a fair price of around +420, per the projections at Covers. From the starting pitcher to the bullpen, form, price, and hitting environment, there is a lot to like about Gelof today.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 15-111, -34.43 units
Today’s HR parlay
Juan Soto
Bet Now +4620
Nick Kurtz
Zack Gelof
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Jun 13, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates .first baseman Spencer Horwitz (2) reacts after being hit by a Miami Marlins pitch to force in the game winning run during the eighth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
On June 15, the Pittsburgh Pirates got blown out to the Athletics 11-2 on the road. The pitching struggled in that game with Jared Jones allowing eight hits and five runs. Carmen Moldozinski also struggled, allowing seven hits and six runs.
The big loss now drops the Pirates to 36-37 on the season which marks the first time they have been below .500 since March 31 when they lost to the New York Mets. The Bucs have now also lost eight of their past 10 games.
The Bucs have been on an absolute free fall since June going 4-9. A big reason because of that has been the pitching which has really struggled of late. Paul Skenes is having a shaky year to his standards. Some of his starts he looks like the Cy young pitcher we know, but there are other starts where he looks off his game.
Mitch Keller has an ERA of 5.14 and has allowed at least five earned runs in the last three starts. Bubba Chandler has also struggled of late for the Bucs with just a 2-7 record and a 4.76 ERA.
The offense has also been struggling, especially in the last four games. The Pirates haven’t scored more than three runs in the last four games, which resulted in a three-game sweep to the Miami Marlins.
The Pirates were in a wild card spot exactly a week ago, but they now find themselves two games out of the wild card. The team is also now in fourth place in the NL Central, being 5.5 games behind the Cardinals for second place and two games behind the Chicago Cubs for third place. The Milwaukee Brewers lead the division by 4.5 games with a 43-26 record.
The Pirates started off so hot to start the season, but it is safe to say that they have been wildly disappointing in the last couple of weeks. The Buccos need to play better and gain some momentum before the All-Star break, but if they can’t do that, then the playoff drought will continue in Pittsburgh.
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- YRFI
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- NRFI
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- NRFI
Juan Soto
Kody Clemens
Bobby Witt Jr. 
COVERS INTEL: Cease's 13.63 K/9 
Nick Kurtz