Category: Baseball

To hear it from some readers, Shea Langeliers is a top catcher in MLB worthy of the All-Star starting gig afforded him by a landslide of fan votes. To hear it from other readers, Langeliers is highly overrated and only reducing his value every month he takes the field and has his shortcomings further exposed.

As usual, the truth is somewhere in between two extremes. We don’t know if the A’s intend for Shea to be their primary catcher through 2028 (when his contract expires), if they will try to deal him this off-season or next, or even as soon as this August 3rd deadline. Internet rumors around Langeliers’ possible available in the next 2 weeks have ramped up but are, at this point, mostly based in opinion and conjecture and not actual inside scoop.

Here is an honest look at the complex statistical landscape that informs Langeliers’ many strengths and many weaknesses both as a hitter and as a defensive catcher — what it all adds up to becomes highly subjective because you will get the good with the bad and you will get the bad with the good, and it’s always anybody’s guess how all these stats will evolve moving forward.

Langeliers’ Batting/Offense: Pros

• No one questions that Langeliers is a legitimate power threat. With 29 HR in 2024 and another 31 in 2025, Shea is at it again with 22 HR in 89 games and a great shot at surpassing 30 again in 2026.

• wRC+, which comes league and park adjusted, shows Langeliers to be a solidly above average hitter, with a 132 wRC+ last season and 124 wRC+ so far this season. That’s good for anyone, and especially impressive for a catcher.

• The past two seasons, Langeliers has brought down his K rate substantially from its previous 34.6%, 29.2%, and 27.2% marks. Not only did they decline each season to a low of 19.7% in 2025, this season’s 22.6% is still very good.

• Despite being a catcher, Langeliers provides the lineup with a fast runner. His sprint speed is in the 81st percentile.

Langeliers’ Batting/Offense: Cons

• A lot of Langeliers’ 2026 stats are buoyed by an incredible April in which he batted .328/.382/.592, 167 wRC+ with 8 HR in 30 games. He cooled off considerably when the calendar turned to May, and has batted only .225 with a .302 OBP since.

• Like so many of the A’s hitters, Langeliers gets a big boost from hitting in West Sacramento (with a Summerlin chaser) half the time. The reality is that on the road, Shea’s numbers begin to look much more pedestrian: .237/.302/.446, 107 wRC+. If that’s closer to “the real Langeliers” it will give other teams pause as to what they should expect if they trade for him.

Langeliers’ Catching: Pros

• Langeliers’ ability to control the running game actually remains strong despite the caught stealing data itself. The A’s pitchers routinely fail to keep runners close, a flaw that was vividly on display Sunday as the Nationals took liberties and swiped 6 bases in which Jonah Heim really had little to no chance each time. Statcast rates Langeliers as being in the 84th percentile for “CS above average” because when given a fair shot Shea comes through often.

• Langeliers has emerged as one of the better catchers with regard to a new key skill: ABS challenges. Shea ranks 5th in MLB with 51 successful challenges behind the dish and he has been successful on 61% of his tries (not elite, but above average).

Langeliers’ Catching: Cons

• While he has improved since his early years, Langeliers is still a liability overall when it comes to blocking errant pitches. He ranks in the 19th percentile in “blocks above average” and his 7 passed balls tie Francisco Alvarez for the most in MLB.

• The need for elite framing has been muted some by ABS but it is still an important skill. For one it can force more ABS challenge decisions from the other team and also at times one team or the other (or both) are out of challenges. Langeliers still languishes in the 7th percentile this season in framing.

• These flaws have helped keep Langeliers’ FRV (fielding run value) numbers negative each and every season of his career, including 2026 where it currently stands at -4.

• A purely subjective concern has been raised on AN and that is pitch calling. How much credit or blame goes to the catcher or to the coaching staff is an open question, as is whether a given catcher’s game calling is excellent, decent, poor, or terrible. There’s no way to measure this, but it has been noted as a source of possible concern. Specifically, Shea seems prone to predictable patterns and to encouraging his pitchers to throw a lot of off speed pitches to open at bats. But this may or may not be a legitimate issue.

What Does It All Add Up To?

Offense: With regard to stats bolstered by a sizzling April, that April did happen and can’t be dismissed. Neither can the reality that May-July has been lukewarm. Langeliers’ uninspiring road stats can’t be ignored but also come in the context that generally players hit better at home and worse on the road. And wRC+ is park adjusted so Shea’s excellent overall stats can’t be waved off as purely a SHP-induced phenomenon.

Conclusion: Langeliers is, in fact, an above average hitter but not an elite one. I would describe him as a “legitimate power threat and a dangerous hitter — but not a great hitter overall, just a good one.”

Defense: Even though you often see poor rushed throws and an uninspiring CS percentage, Langeliers brings strength to controlling the running game and is as good as his pitchers allow him to be. However, he has established over several seasons now that he brings more weaknesses than strengths to the party so as to finish each season in negative FRV territory.

Conclusion: What you get with Langeliers is a “bat first” catcher who is below average defensively overall, but at least brings a couple key skills to recommend him.

Is this a fair assessment, or am I being too harsh, too forgiving? Most to the point of the next 2 weeks or perhaps this off-season, how is Langeliers viewed by the industry and what would teams be willing to offer in order to call him theirs. He’s under contract 2 more years after this one, and service time certainly highly informs value. Discuss.

As of right now, both of the teams that the Atlanta Braves will be facing this week are under .500. You’d think that would mean that this could be an opportunity for the Braves to really kick their second-half start into high-gear with two series wins against teams with mediocre records. That definitely could still happen and if the Braves continue to hit like they have during the month of July, it’s certainly possible!

With that being said, this could end up being one of those weeks where things get sideways and that’s because they could be running into one team at exactly the wrong time while it’s seemingly always the wrong time to run into the other club that Atlanta’s facing this week. The Orioles will be hosting the Braves at Camden Yards this weekend and they’re hot at the moment. Starting today, however, the Braves will be facing a Padres team that has just been a nightmare for them to deal with over the past two seasons.

Can the Braves break their hex against San Diego? Will they be able to cool off the O’s? It’s time to take a look at the week ahead.

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July 20-23: San Diego Padres

Current Record: 49-50 Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 80-82

The last time the Braves saw the Padres, it went disastrously for Atlanta. Petco Park confirmed itself as the latest house of horror for the Braves as the three-game sweep at the hands of San Diego provided plenty of nightmare fuel for fans across Braves Country. In fact, the Padres may as well be the boogeyman as far as the Braves are concerned since Atlanta has gone 7-19 against San Diego since the start of the 2023 season and including the 2024 NL Wild Card series.

Of course a lot of that is due to Atlanta’s abysmal record at Petco Park but at the same time, the Braves haven’t fared too well against the Padres in Cobb County, either! In fact, the last time these two teams played a four-game series at Truist Park, the Padres ended up taking three-out-of-four. For some reason or another, the Padres have just had Atlanta’s number as of late.

Before the Braves ran into the brick wall that is the Padres, Manny Machado had been having a very underwhelming season at the plate as he had been hitting .179/.259/.366 with a wOBA of .273 and a wRC+ of 73. Then he ran into his good pals from Atlanta and it was as if that walk-off hit he delivered in the series opener reminded him of who he was and how good he can be. Ever since the Braves left town, Machado has hit .258/.383/.530 with a wOBA of .384 and a wRC+ of 147. Considering how well he’s done against the Braves historically and this run that he’s currently on, you can expect him to be a problem yet again.

San Diego will also be starting Michael King on Wednesday and he’s been a problem for the Braves to deal with since donning the brown-and-yellow. Counting the Postseason, two of King’s past three starts against the Braves have seen him go seven scoreless innings. Heading into this start, he’s only given up four runs across 17 innings over his past three starts, so that could be tough sledding for the Braves once again if King continues on his current run of form and his usual sense of comfort when pitching against the Braves.

Guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Ty France, Sung-Mun Song, Luis Campusano and Miguel Andujar have been swinging the bat well for the Padres lately and you never want to meet Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon in the dark alley that is “trailing the Padres heading into the eighth inning” so there’s still plenty to worry about with this crew. With that being said, they’ve only won one series since sweeping the Braves (a home series against the Blue Jays) and they’ll be coming into Atlanta after having dropped a series against the woeful Royals. With that being said, the Padres did absolutely paddle Kansas City for nineteen runs on their way out so maybe they could be heating up just in time to face a foe that they appear to be really comfortable with as of late.

Monday, July 20, 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Tuesday, July 21, 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision, Gray TV)
Wednesday, July 22, 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Thursday, July 23, 12:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)

July 24-26: Baltimore Orioles

Current Record: 49-51 Projected Record: 80-82

Everybody knows that the Red Sox are currently on a serious heater, as they’ve won 13-straight games and have vaulted themselves back into the thick of the Postseason conversation. Did you know that coming into this week’s action, the Orioles have won seven straight? Indeed, the Orioles are pretty hot as well and they’re also probably cursing their luck that they started to heat up at exactly the same time as the Red Sox. As a result, the Orioles are still in fourth place and far behind both the Yankees and Rays in the AL East but at the same time, they’re also only two games out of a Wild Card spot. That’s all it takes in this current era of baseball to get into Postseason contention, folks.

Anyways, one of the two streaks will have to end soon as O’s will be facing the Red Sox this week. While the Red Sox have won 13 straight, the O’s have won 10 of their past 13 so it’s not like this’ll just be chalk for the Red Sox since they’re the hotter team. Tyler O’Neill has been swinging a red-hot bat during this stretch (which started on July 1), as he’s mashing at a .316/.381/.947 clip with a .540 wOBA and 258 wRC+ since July 1. Coby Mayo, Blaze Alexander and Taylor Ward have also been tearing it up at the plate during this stretch and then you have players like Jackson Holliday and Dylan Beavers providing plenty of production as well. Our “old friend” Pete Alonso has also been swinging the bat very nicely as of late, so that just adds to the list of concerns heading into this series.

As you can imagine for a team that’s been as hot as Baltimore has been, their pitching has also been excellent in recent times. The O’s will likely be starting Brandon Young, Trevor Rogers and Shane Baz during this series and that’s going to be a challenge since all three of those guys have been doing very well on the mound during this month. The top of Baltimore’s rotation has been keyed in and as I mentioned earlier, the pitching staff has really been locked in to the point where the O’s have had the third-best ERA- (66) and the fifth-best FIP- (89) since the start of July. The O’s could come into this weekend’s series having been humbled by the Red Sox or they could be the new hottest team in baseball — either way, the Braves will have to be on their toes and ready.

Friday, July 24 at 7:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Saturday, July 25 at 7:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Sunday, July 26 at 1:35 p.m. ET (BravesVision)

Immediately after the Cubs dedicated their newest addition to Gallagher Way, the Champions Gate that commemorates the franchises three World Series wins in 1907, 1908 and 2016, Anthony Rizzo described the special character of the 2016 team, how hard it is to win in baseball, and honestly, what seemed like a bit of luck in how everything came together for that World Series Champion team. Those comments were echoed by his teammates throughout the day, as pitchers reflected on how rare it is for five guys to make 29+ starts a piece, as players reflected on how Joe Maddon really was the perfect manager for this particular crew, you got a sense that yes the 2016 team was the best in baseball that season, and honestly, they also just had a bit of magic around everything they did.

Late Friday afternoon the smoky haze that had been blanketing the area around Wrigley Field cleared out through Saturday evening. It seemed like even the smoke from the Canadian wildfires wasn’t going to interrupt the long-planned celebration of the 2016 team at the corner of Clark and Addison. But maybe that shouldn’t surprise us. This is the team who had a perfectly timed 17-minute rain delay give them a chance to regroup and summon the vibes that carried them all season during one of the greatest Game 7 victories in baseball history.

Prior to Saturday’s game, the area around Gallagher Way was packed with fans. It was standing room only around a VIP area set up. There was a blue carpet where each member of the 2016 team entered to applause from fans. Marquee Sports Network’s Cole Wright served as the master of ceremonies, passing the mic to team owner Tom Ricketts, then Joe Maddon and finally Rizzo, speaking for the players:

Anthony Rizzo on what it meant to win the 2016 World Series and the Champions Gate Dedication – “You guys don't understand how much us players appreciate you fans … these last few days have been the best few days in the last ten years of my life.” 💙 pic.twitter.com/DFFhqrX5bY

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 18, 2026

The whole team ultimately dedicated the gate, which also honored the 1907 and 1908 teams, who were represented by the descendants of Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown. The gate has plenty of room for more plaques should the Cubs decide to win another championship (or five, as Rizzo himself requested).

But the remarks really kept returning to the unique moment of 2016, how hard it is to repeat as World Series Champions (including a great quip from David Ross about how what was really missing in 2017 was him), which Rizzo flawlessly segued to a note about how every team is different and winning is really hard.

The 2016 Cubs core weren't able to win more championships, but Anthony Rizzo doesn't look back on those seasons with any regret.

"Winning every day, winning a a ballgame on July 18th against the Minnesota Twins is not easy. So you have to cherish every one of them.," says Rizzo. pic.twitter.com/sY0G5SgyIY

— 104.3 The Score (@thescorechicago) July 18, 2026

Some of that magic is still clearly following this blessed team around. Given the elite vibes is it really all that surprising that for the second time in as many seasons Anthony Rizzo sat in the bleachers only to have a Cubs home run ball find him?

Anthony Rizzo is wearing his Game 7 jersey from 2016

He originally gave it to his dad who got a mustard stain on the back of it when he wore it on Opening Day in 2017 https://t.co/jwNfLtsSOWpic.twitter.com/U3p9Ws9Q8I

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) July 18, 2026

It was just that type of day at one of baseball’s greatest cathedrals. A ballpark that has seen so many historic moments. This is the ballpark where Babe Ruth called his shot. It’s the only remaining active MLB park where Jackie Robinson played a game. But one thing it had not seen, until 2017, was a victorious Cubs champion team returning with the Commissioner’s Trophy:

The 2016 Chicago Cubs in all their glory 🤩 pic.twitter.com/1pOuHtVSkT

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 18, 2026

During the top of the fifth inning on Marquee Sports Network, one of the Cubs with multiple rings tried to put it into words. Jon Lester invoked winning “as a belief…obviously…“ However, in listening to him discuss that with Ryan Dempster it became clear, not all teams treat a championship as their destiny. Dempster, specifically described how revealing it was to him to have them just expect to win and how powerful that was in manifesting some good luck and good outcomes.

That luck was on display all afternoon at Wrigley Field, whether it was Michael Busch’s home run finding Rizzo, or the cheer that erupted all around the upper concourse as Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward and Rizzo made their way around the concourse tossing fans baseballs and taking photos with them. And maybe, just maybe, a little bit of that expectation of winning and things going right rubbed off on the 2026 Cubs a decade later. It’s the best explanation I have for the penultimate play of the game being one of the wildest double plays you’ll ever see. You can see all of the highlights, including an 8-4-2-5-3 double play, below:

A weekend to remember 😁🏆

Relive all the top moments from the Cubs 2016 World Series Reunion! pic.twitter.com/gLYwwQAt1L

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 20, 2026

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You can't cash home run tickets all week if you don't start on Monday! 

These are my top looks to leave the yard, including a double-dose of Kyle Schwarber moonshots to go along with Ben Rice and Colt Keith in these MLB player props. 

Here are my favorite MLB picks & home run predictions for Monday, July 20.

Best MLB home run props today

Home run pick: Ben Rice (+281)

New York Yankees slugger Ben Rice draws Braxton Ashcraft this evening, a matchup where he covers over 91% of his arsenal according to Batters-Box.

Ashcraft has allowed left-handed hitters to do just about whatever they want as of late. Over his last 60 batters faced, lefties have generated a 74.3% elevation rate, 57.1% hard-hit rate, and 14.3% barrel rate. During that stretch, they own a .407 xBA, .825 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, and .319 ISO.

Rice has been crushing right-handed pitching recently as well. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, he owns a .308 BA, .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, and .384 ISO. During that span, he has produced a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.

This is an excellent spot for the All-Star to leave the yard.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, SNP

Home run pick: Colt Keith (+415)

Wind blowing out and Jameson Taillon on the mound? Yeah, we need to back a Tiger to go Ya-Ya, and Colt Keith is our guy.

The Detroit Tigers third baseman carries an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season dataset while covering over 61% of Taillon’s pitch mix. The expected data suggests that arsenal coverage should actually be higher, which is why I am leaning heavily into Keith this evening.

Plus, he has been one of the hottest hitters in the Tigers lineup. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Keith owns a .654 SLG, 1.021 OPS, .428 wOBA, and .346 ISO, while producing a 47.4% hard hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate.

Taillon has struggled against left-handed bats this season, allowing a 75% elevation rate and 15% barrel rate. Lefties have posted a .553 xSLG, .407 xwOBA, and .315 ISO against him.

At that price, it is hard to pass up on a hitter who is absolutely crushing the baseball.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, DSN

Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber 2+ Home Runs (+1400)

Kyle Schwarber finds himself in a mouthwatering spot tonight, and the books appear to be overcompensating for the matchup. His home run prop is currently well under 2-to-1 and will likely continue to drop as we get closer to first pitch.

However, Schwarber carries an elite rating on Batters-Box while holding an 82.5% arsenal coverage matchup against Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan. Across 107 elite ratings over the last three years, Schwarber has homered nearly 35% of the time.

The Phillies slugger has also been generating nearly 60% hard contact over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, and I think he is an ideal option for not just one, but two nukes this evening.

Sheehan has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a 47.4% hard-hit rate and a 73.7% elevation rate to his last 30 faced. Those hitters have produced a .546 xSLG during that stretch.

If you want to play it safe, take the one, but there is far more value in chasing two.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN

Today’s HR parlay

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Red Sox have won 13 straight. The Baltimore Orioles are on a 7-game winning streak. The next longest winning streak in MLB is 3 games by the Milwaukee Brewers. These are the hottest teams in baseball – the Peacock broadcast last night called the Red Sox white hot – and they are going to face off for three games. They can’t even split this one: one team will win the series and the other will lose it.

The Orioles start off the series by sending a Shane against Boston. This strategy was just tried by the Tampa Bay Rays and didn’t work. Baz is leading the league in losses with 9 but that’s not because he’s been bad, he’s just been on the Orioles. He faced the Red Sox on June 2 and allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings. But the early June Sox weren’t the July Sox. He’s facing Payton Tolle, the newlywed. Tolle finished the first half with a short day: 3.2 innings by design) striking out 7 Mets. The Sox would would that game in the 10th in dramatic fashion.

Righty Kyle Bradish, whom the Orioles just extended for 5 years, takes the mound Tuesday. Originally acquired for one-time phenom Dylan Bundy he’s been worth 9 bWAR for the O’s. He faced the Sox way back on April 26, the first game of the Chad Tracy era. He went 5.0 innings and allowed 3 runs in the loss. Bradish has been pretty good over the last few outings with only a 4-run, 4.0 inning outing against the Nationals as a blemish. The Sox are still TBD at the time of this writing but it’s likely that Ranger Suarez will come off the IL to face the Orioles. The other option, provided he doesn’t pitch in Monday’s game is Brayan Bello.

The finale features Dan Kremer. Three righties in a row means the Orioles probably have to face Masa, who has been pretty hot himself. Kremer missed all of May and June and returned in July. This is his fourth start back. In 15 innings he’s allowed 5 home runs, 7 runs, 5 walks, and struck out 14. He’s gone as high as 92 pitches deep. It’s been mixed. The Orioles held the Astros to 2 runs but Kremer allowed both over his 4.0 innings. It’s too soon to know if he’s finding a groove but there could be an opportunity to do some damage. Boston closes it with Jake Bennett. What is there to say? This trade looks outstanding. Scoreless his last 13 innings. Handling good offenses like Tampa, the White Sox, and the Yankees? He’s been worth 1.5 bWAR in 9 starts. Sonny Gray is in the midst of Cy Young consideration and over 17 starts has been about 2.6 bWAR. Bennett is more than hanging around, he’s claimed a rotation spot.

Pete Alonso has hit 21 home runs.

Taylor Ward leads the league in batter walks with 77. His career high had been 75 last season in 157 games.

Gunnar Henderson is slashing just .219/.288/.394

As of Monday morning the O’s are 2.0 games out of the third Wild Card, behind Boston and Seattle.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday, July 20: Shane Baz (4.19 ERA / 3.59 FIP) vs. Payton Tolle (3.11 ERA /3.23 FIP)

Tuesday, July 21: Kyle Bradish (3.61 ERA / 4.01 FIP) vs. TBD (— ERA / — FIP)

Wednesday, July 22: Dean Kremer (4.15 ERA / 6.18 FIP) vs. Jake Bennett (2.35 ERA / 3.03 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Monday, July 20: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Tuesday, July 21: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Wednesday, July 19: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

With a 50-50 record through 100 games, the Mariners have become the embodiment of that famous Tommy Lasorda quote. They’ve got 62 games left to prove how good or bad they really are. There were glimpses of that competent roster last weekend; Cole Young blasted two huge home runs, Julio Rodriguez collected a walk-off hit in his first game off the IL, and the pitching was mostly solid. Now the trick is to string a few series wins together to build some momentum as the season barrels towards the trade deadline.

Game	Time	Mariners Starter	Reds Starter	Mariners Win%	Reds Win%
Game 1	Monday, July 20 | 6:40 pm	RHP George Kirby	LHP Andrew Abbott	63.2%	36.8%
Game 2	Tuesday, July 21 | 6:40 pm	RHP Luis Castillo	RHP Chase Burns	53.8%	46.2%
Game 3	Wednesday, July 22 | 12:40 pm	RHP Emerson Hancock	RHP Brady Singer	58.7%	41.3%

Overview	Mariners	Reds	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	100 (9th in AL)	91 (13th in NL)	Mariners
Fielding (FRV)	-25 (13th)	-7 (11th)	Reds
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	87 (2nd)	106 (10th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	90 (3rd)	116 (14th)	Mariners

It took a historic collapse from the Mets, but the Reds made a surprise playoff appearance last year. It didn’t last long — they were trounced in the Wild Card round by the Dodgers — but it seemed like something promising to build on. Cincinnati got off to a really strong start to this year, but the team has crashed after the first month of the season. Since May 1, the Reds’ 24-42 record is the worst in baseball. There are a few bright spots around the roster; Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart are a solid pair to build a lineup around and Hunter Greene and Chase Burns are a flamethrowing duo to lead the starting rotation. The rest of the roster is rather lackluster, and the wave of young talent that had been working its way through their farm system a few years ago hasn’t panned out at all.

Player	Position	Bats	PA	K%	BB%	ISO	wRC+
Elly De La Cruz	SS	S	354	27.4%	9.6%	0.225	130
Sal Stewart	1B	R	428	21.0%	10.7%	0.221	114
JJ Bleday	LF	L	297	19.9%	13.8%	0.243	124
Spencer Steer	RF	R	371	22.1%	9.2%	0.188	105
Eugenio Suárez	DH	R	279	36.2%	8.6%	0.187	82
Tyler Stephenson	C	R	265	24.9%	10.6%	0.149	95
TJ Friedl	CF	L	222	23.4%	8.1%	0.088	43
Edwin Arroyo	2B	S	114	21.1%	26.0%	0.047	50
Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B	R	139	15.8%	5.8%	0.077	7

Elly De La Cruz is one of the most dynamic, young players in baseball. He possesses an exciting combination of speed and power, and he’s managed to take a pretty big step forward at the plate this year. After an excellent debut last September, Sal Stewart has continued to pound big league pitching in his first full season. His contact quality isn’t great as it was last year, but he’s still been able to crush 20 home runs during his rookie campaign. The lineup goes downhill from there. JJ Bleday is in the middle of a nice bounce ball season and Spencer Steer has turned into a solid utility guy, but Eugeno Suárez is really showing his age now and TJ Friedl and Ke’Bryan Hays simply can’t hit enough to make up for their solid defense. 

A fun note: the two position player prospects sent to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo deal are finally on the major league roster together. Noelvi Marte has had a rough, up-and-down start to his career that included a PED suspension last year. Edwin Arroyo was just recently made his major league debut last month, though he looks pretty overmatched by big league pitching. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Andrew Abbott	105	18.4%	10.5%	12.2%	41.3%	4.11	4.85
George Kirby	110	21.5%	5.3%	9.7%	47.7%	3.76	3.33

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	46.0%	47.6%	92.6	91	56	105	0.405
Cutter	2.3%	0.0%	88.6
Changeup	25.1%	1.1%	85.9	89	120	123	0.299
Curveball	16.6%	5.5%	79.7	91	75	112	0.258
Sweeper	10.0%	45.8%	82.2	114	90	120	0.222

It seemed like Andrew Abbott had taken a big step forward last year; his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved to 3.47 and his ERA sat below three, even if his FIP was a little higher at 3.66. He hasn’t been able to replicate that success this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has fallen to 1.75 thanks to a huge jump in walk rate. He’s still putting his fastball in the zone a ton, but he’s trying to get batters to chase his secondary offerings outside the zone and it just isn’t working. He’s also suffered from a pretty significant increase in hard contact allowed — contact management was a big reason why he was so successful last year. None of the steps backwards are that big on their own, but taken all together and it’s a recipe for a pretty uneven season.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Chase Burns	102.2	28.6%	9.0%	10.5%	36.1%	2.54	3.40
Luis Castillo	87.2	20.8%	7.2%	10.3%	37.4%	4.93	4.16

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	53.3%	59.4%	97.8	108	81	113	0.324
Changeup	0.2%	9.0%	90.1	89	107	106	0.427
Slider	46.5%	31.6%	90.5	125	155	107	0.195

Chase Burns is one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball, and he just earned a huge pay day. Last week, the Reds signed him to a seven-year extension to keep him in Cincinnati until 2034. It’s easy to see why they like him so much. He easily reaches triple-digits with his fastball and possesses one of the nastiest sliders in baseball. The depth of his repertoire is pretty limited — right now, he’s working with the Spencer Strider two-pitch special — but he’s dabbled with a changeup and a curveball, though neither of those pitches is ready for primetime. It doesn’t really matter right now because his slider is so unhittable, and his fastball so difficult to square up, that he’s thriving without the need for a third or fourth pitch.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Brady Singer	96.2	19.2%	7.2%	18.6%	43.0%	4.56	5.44
Emerson Hancock	99.1	24.1%	6.4%	11.0%	41.0%	3.17	3.66

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	2.3%	3.8%	90.6	94
Sinker	51.6%	45.4%	91.3	98	106	83	0.362
Cutter	4.7%	8.4%	86.8	79	91	78	0.461
Slider	25.1%	33.2%	82.5	86	110	68	0.294
Sweeper	16.3%	9.2%	81.6	86	130	101	0.316

Brady Singer is in the midst of the worst season of his career. Yes, his ERA isn’t as high as it was in 2023 when it was over five, but his peripherals have all taken a dive this season and his FIP has shot up to a career-high as a result. He’s lost a full tick off his fastball velocity, further degrading an already mediocre pitch. His two breaking balls are decent enough, especially against right-handed batters, but neither is very effective against opposite-handed opponents. He could really use a changeup to keep lefties at bay; instead, he’s tried to add a cutter to his pitch mix but that pitch has been crushed.

---

The Big Picture:

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Rangers	50-49	0.505	—	-31	L-W-L-W-L
Mariners	50-50	0.500	0.5	+13	L-W-L-W-W
Astros	47-54	0.465	4.0	-53	W-L-L-L-L
Athletics	42-57	0.424	8.0	-114	L-L-L-W-L
Angels	39-61	0.390	11.5	-62	L-L-L-L-W

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Yankees	55-44	0.556	+4.5	+85	W-W-L-L-W
Guardians	52-48	0.520	+1.0	-12	W-W-L-W-L
Red Sox	50-48	0.510	—	+45	W-W-W-W-W
Mariners	50-50	0.500	1.0	+13	L-W-L-W-W
Twins	49-51	0.490	2.0	-24	W-W-W-L-L
Orioles	49-51	0.490	2.0	-13	W-W-W-W-W

The Mariners gained a game on the Rangers after they dropped their weekend series against the Braves. Texas hosts the White Sox this week before a huge showdown against the M’s this weekend. The Astros were swept by the Orioles this past weekend, dropping to four games back in the division. Meanwhile, Baltimore has won seven straight and played their way onto the fringe of the Wild Card race. The O’s aren’t even the hottest team in baseball — that’s the Red Sox who have now won 13 in a row and are now in possession of the final Wild Card spot, a game ahead of the Mariners.

Fresh off their first road series win since early June, the New York Mets (42-58) travel to American Family Field for a three-game rendezvous with the Milwaukee Brewers (62-37). The Mets were swept in Milwaukee last August but won two of three against the Brewers at Citi Field. The last time New York won a game in this ballpark, it was Game 160 of the 2024 season, and the victory positioned them to clinch a postseason berth on the final day of the regular season.

The Mets entered the second half as losers of three straight following a sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, but they rebounded to take two of three from the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. It was their first road series win since taking two out of three from the Padres back on June 5-7. In their 4-1 victory on Thursday, they got most of their offense via the home run ball, as Francisco Alvarez contributed his second two-homer game of the year and Brett Baty added a solo shot of his own, which was more than enough for Christian Scott, who was terrific yet again. The win came despite the downright dangerous conditions, including the poor air quality resulting from the Canadian wild fires. They were listless in their 6-1 loss on Saturday, as the Mets mustered just three hits, made three errors, and got ineffective pitching from both Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga in defeat.

They returned the favor with a 6-1 win in the rubber game, as the Mets jumped ahead on a Francisco Lindor two-run home run, got three more runs in the second, and never looked back, while Nolan McLean shoved with ten strikeouts in six shutout frames. The Mets picked up 14 hits and walked seven times, with every member of the starting lineup picking up at least one hit except for Marcus Semien. On the downside, New York left 15 on base and ended up going 3-for-23 with Runners in Scoring Position in the series, with all three hits coming on Sunday.

The team’s solid weekend did nothing to quell the trade chatter, and in fact the organization openly announced to the world before Thursday’s game that they were open to business. This is nothing new but did serve as active confirmation of their plans heading into the deadline, especially the fact that all players minus the youngsters and Juan Soto are being made available for the right deal. This led to a lot of chatter about Lindor, who has struggled this year after enduring an injury-plagued campaign. Worse than the offense, he’s made a number of mental mistakes and made errors in three straight games before putting up a clean defensive performance on Sunday.

He actually put forth one of his best performances of the year in the finale, hitting a homer, contributing three hits, and reaching base five times. Despite that, many fans and many in the media have taken it upon themselves to ask if he should be traded, with many even saying his best days are behind him. It’s led to a lot of takes, and a lot of discourse, but Lindor, for his part, has made it known he’s not happy with his play and is actively going out there trying to figure things out. For the right trade, anyone should be movable, but the Mets would probably have to be blown away to even consider it, as Lindor still remains an integral part of this team, especially if they want to succeed next season.

The Brewers kicked off the second half with a three-game sweep of the Marlins at home, which was a nice rebound performance after getting swept by the Pirates to end the first half. The Brewers, who were once chasing the Cubs in the NL Central, are currently six games clear of their division foe, and own the second-best record in baseball behind the Dodgers. On top of their major league success, the Brewers have the top ranked farm system in Major League Baseball, which is an embarrassment of riches for an organization that has made the postseason in seven of the past eight seasons and is well on their way to making it this year after reaching the NLCS in 2025.

Unsurprisingly, Milwaukee is right near the top of the pack in the NL in offense, ranking fifth in wRC+ (104), fifth in runs scored (502), fourth in OBP (.337), and fourth in stolen bases (98). However, one thing they won’t do is outslug you, as they have hit the fewest home runs (91) among NL squads. Their pitching is where they really shine, however. Their rotation has a 3.38 ERA, which is second-best in the NL behind the Dodgers, while sporting a league-best 3.48 FIP. Their starters also sport the best K% (27.9%), the third-best BB% (7.4%), and the fourth-best HR/9 (1.08). It is worth noting that a lot of it is skewed thanks to Jacob Misiorowski’s Cy Young-worthy campaign. Their bullpen is equally lethal, sporting the second-best ERA (3.54) and FIP (3.68) in the league. So while Milwaukee will not bludgeon you on offense, they are very stingy when it comes to giving up runs.

Aside from Misiorowski, William Contreras was the only other All-Star for Milwaukee. The catcher enters play hitting .280/.346/.405 with 10 homers, a 107 wRC+, and 1.8 fWAR in 92 games. However, their best offensive player is Brice Turang, who is hitting .261/.358/.456 while leading the club in runs scored (67), runs batted in (60), stolen bases (15), and fWAR (3.5). Their biggest power threat is Jake Bauers, who is tops on the team in home runs (18), wRC+ (135), and OPS (.858).

Monday, July 20: Freddy Peralta vs. Brandon Sproat, 7:40 PM EDT on SNY

Peralta (2026): 104.1 IP, 104 K, 44 BB, 15 HR, 4.66 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 114 ERA-

Peralta will make his long-awaited return to Milwaukee when he faces off with his old club in the series opener. In eight years with the Brewers, he posted a 3.59 ERA and a 3.66 FIP while amassing 1,237 strikeouts in 931 innings. He was a two-time All-Star and finished in the top-5 in NL Cy Young voting with the club in his final season. He’s had considerably less success with the Mets, and is quickly approaching the end of his brief tenure in Queens, as he will almost certainly be moved before the August 3 deadline. Interestingly, with the Brandon Woodruff injury, Milwaukee has emerged as a possible landing spot for the right-hander. His last time out, he suffered his eighth loss of 2026 as he allowed two earned runs on three hits while striking out six and wlaking five over 4 1/3 innings.

Sproat (2026): 82.0 IP, 87 K, 39 BB, 15 HR, 5.16 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 123 ERA-

Similar to Peralta, Sproat will make his first start against the club that traded him to the Brewers (in exchange for Peralta). The young right-hander was the centerpiece of the deal and has been a steady member of the team’s rotation after making four starts with the Mets and posting a 4.79 ERA and a 2.80 FIP in 20 2/3 innings last year. His numbers are a bit misleading, as he had a really rough start to his tenure in the Brewers before leveling off a bit. After posting a 6.24 ERA and a 5.59 FIP through May 31, he has posted a 3.55 ERA and a 4.40 FIP in seven starts since June 1. He also enjoyed the best start of his career in this stretch, when he hurled six innings of one-hit ball and punched out a career-best ten against the Reds on June 23.

Tuesday, July 21: Zac Thornton vs. Jacob Misiorowski, 7:40 PM EDT on SNY

Thornton (2026): 17.1 IP, 15 K, 5 BB, 1 HR, 2.60 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 64 ERA-

The artist formerly known as “Zach Thornton” and currently known as “Zac Thornton” is coming off the best start of his young career, and one that should have earned him his first career victory. The young left-hander dominated the Red Sox in the team’s final game before the All-Star break, llimiting Boston to two hits and two walks over seven scoreless frames. He struck out five and needed just 82 pitches to get through his outing. If it wasn’t for a blown save in the ninth, he would have had his victory, but he will certainly get plenty of chances down the stretch to earn that first win. Given the team’s pitching outlook, the upcoming deadline, and his last two starts, Thornton looks to have established himself as a rotation mainstay for the foreseeable future.

Misiorowski (2026): 111.0 IP, 167 K, 27 BB, 9 HR, 1.62 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 39 ERA-

Misiorowski made waves after debuting last year and was the center of controversy after being named an NL All-Star after just five career starts and 25 2/3 career innings. There was no controversy this year with his selection, as Misiorowski leads the NL in ERA (1.62), ERA- (39), strikeouts (167), FIP (2.09), WHIP (0.76), and H/9 (4.6). He has established himself as the clear frontrunner for the NL Cy Young award in his second major league season. The 24-year-old flamethrower earned a win in his last start before the break, holding the Cardinals to three runs on three hits with 11 strikeouts over two innings. His best and most eye-opening start came on June 12, when he hurled a complete game one-hit shutout with 15 strikeouts against the Phillies.

Sunday, July 19: Christian Scott vs. Logan Henderson, 2:10 PM EDT on SNY

Scott (2026): 59.2 IP, 72 K, 26 BB, 7 HR, 2.87 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 70 ERA-

Dealing with a tough lineup in Philadelphia and the elements (intense heat and bad air quality), Scott was in command in picking up his third career victory. The 27-year-old right-hander held a potent Phillies’ lineup to three hits and did not walk a batter while striking out seven over 5 2/3 innings. Over his last two starts, he ha snow pitched 10 2/3 innings of shutout baseball, scattering six hits and walking one while striking out 12 hitters. Along with Nolan McLean, Scott as emerged as the future of this team’s rotation in 2027 and beyond.

Henderson (2026): 33.1 IP, 38 K, 7 BB, 3 HR, 2.97 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 71 ERA-

Henderson posted a 1.78 ERA in 25 1/3 innings for Milwaukee last season in his first go-around in the majors, but elbow inflammation cut his solid season short. He started this year in Triple-A but has made a couple of trips up to the majors while also battling a low back strain. Since returning, he’s made two starts, allowing three earned runs on three hits over 5 1/3 innings in a win against the Cardinals, and holding the Marlins to one earned run on three hits over five innings against the Marlins in a no decision. The Brewers have won each of his last five starts dating back to his pre-IL stint.

I used to spend each July and August visiting my grandparents in Bristol, Connecticut. On many of those summer nights, my grandfather would take me to watch the New Britain Rock Cats. Being so close to the Trade Deadline, the stands were often filled with scouts. I still remember watching Joba Chamberlain pitch while Reggie Jackson sat in the suite behind us.

Those memories make me long for the days when the hot stove was actually hot. Rumors were not in our faces in March. Instead, they slowly heated up as the dog days of summer arrived.

For the sake of this article, let’s pretend this is breaking news. The Yankees have reportedly been scouting and are interested in Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman.

2026 Statistics (Thus Far): 92 G, 384 PA, .257/.326/.561, 15 2B, 30 HR, 125 K, 8.3 BB%, 32.6 K%, 124 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

2026 ZiPS Rest-of-Season Statistics: 55 G, 223 PA, .251/.309/.493, 11 2B, 12 HR, 62 K, 6.9 BB%, 28 K%, 103 wRC+ 0.7 fWAR

Many people have found their own ways to describe just how poor the Yankees’ catchers have been offensively this season. My favorite way to put it nicely is that they appear to be actively hostile to the concept of quality at-bats. As a group, Yankees catchers have been among the worst offensive units in baseball. Looking at it optimistically, though, it highlights a glaring need and sets an extremely low bar for what qualifies as a successful upgrade.

Austin Wells has established trust with both the coaching staff and pitching staff, but his offensive performance has become increasingly difficult to defend. I think most fans are past the point of asking for a right-handed platoon partner. The reality is that the Yankees need an everyday catcher, allowing Wells to slide into a backup role that would better suit both his skill set and production. The problem is that everyday catchers are rarely available in July, and it’s hard for traded backstops to learn their pitching staffs in a hurry down the stretch in a pennant race.

Sure, several backups and veteran journeymen are bound to change uniforms before the deadline, but true difference-makers behind the plate almost never hit the market. With the Twins still hovering around .500, the list of impact catchers available may be even shorter with Ryan Jeffers potentially remaining in Minnesota.

That brings us to Goodman. Let’s take a look at some green and red flags for the Rockies’ current backstop. On the green side, Goodman bats right-handed. This season he has posted a .919 OPS against left-handed pitching and an .836 OPS against righties, making him productive regardless of the matchup. Better yet, after this season he still has three years of team control remaining before free agency.

The red flags? The Rockies have publicly stated they do not want to trade him, and Goodman currently carries a strikeout rate north of 30 percent.

Those red flags? They really do not bother me.

The Rockies should not want to trade Goodman. That is exactly how a rebuilding club should view a young, controllable player, and he’s not even arb-eligible yet. Even with forthcoming adjustments to the CBA in negotiations, it’s hard to imagine him becoming a free agent sooner than his currently projected 2029-30 offseason.

However, every player has a value and every owner has a price. It’s not as though new team president Paul DePodesta has any lasting attachment to Goodman either, as he wasn’t involved with his drafting or development. If another organization is willing to meet that price, conversations happen. The Rockies sit at the bottom of the NL West and still have a long climb before they can realistically challenge the Dodgers. Adding multiple years of control from quality young pitchers might be enough to start that conversation.

As for the strikeouts, if there is one position where you can live with a 30-percent strikeout rate, it is catcher. Especially when that catcher is slashing .257/.326/.561 with 30 home runs just after the All-Star break, following his second three-homer game of 2026 on Sunday.

I will put a beige flag out there, too, because Goodman’s defense has graded somewhere between below average and average. To me, that is neither a green nor a red flag. Goodman features a solid pop time and blocks pitches well, two traits the Yankees have traditionally valued that would fit nicely with their sinker/splitter-heavy pitching staff. The biggest area where his defense lags behind is pitch framing. While framing has become somewhat less valuable with the introduction of ABS, it remains an important part of the modern catching position.

For anyone worried Goodman’s numbers are simply a product of Coors Field, those concerns should be put to rest as well. He has actually been a better hitter on the road this season, with 18 of his 30 home runs coming away from Denver. His batting average also jumps to .282 on the road compared to .217 at Coors Field.

Ultimately, the conversation comes down to one question. How much is having an All-Star catcher under team control through the next three seasons worth to the Yankees?

The other elephant in the room is that this team was built around having two big right-handed power towers in the middle of the lineup. Even if Aaron Judge returns healthy, he still needs help because Giancarlo Stanton’s availability remains uncertain.

In this case, the bird in the hand may be worth two in the bush. A trade for Goodman would essentially restore the middle-of-the-order production the Yankees expected from Stanton, only at the weakest position in their lineup by far. Goodman is still only 26 years old and, though he does not yet have Stanton’s résumé, he has shown tremendous power and appears to be a star on the rise.

After dropping a series to the Dodgers and with the Red Sox surging, the urgency for the front office to shore up this roster feels even greater than it did before the weekend began. The Rockies might not want to trade Goodman, but the Yankees probably need to keep making offers until they cannot say no.

A name Cardinals fans who have been in or around social media for the last few years knows our guest this week all too well! thecardinalnation.com prospect writer and co-host of “Wednesdays with Walton and Reis”, Kyle Reis! This week, Gabe and I pepper Kyle with questions about the up-and-coming left-handed pitchers in the Cardinals system, JJ Wetherholt’s contract extension, Jordan Walker’s HR Derby win, and plenty of breakdowns on Cardinals 2026 draft picks!

00:23 Introduction and Guest Introduction
02:22 Exciting Developments in Cardinals’ Pitching Prospects
10:26 Injury Updates and Player Development
14:12 JJ Weatherholt’s Impact and Future Extensions
22:14 Jordan Walker’s Home Run Derby Victory and Future Potential
23:29 Evaluating Jordan Walker’s Performance
28:40 Analyzing the 2026 Draft Picks
36:14 Prospect Comparisons and Future Potential
40:29 Cal Randall’s Development as a Pitcher
42:38 Tegan Kuhns: A Blend of Old and New Scouting
46:30 Final Thoughts on Draft Prospects

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Transcript:

Jake Wood (00:23)
Welcome into the Viva El Birdos Podcast. My name is Jake wood, and I am your host. I am joined by fellow writer Gabe Simonds here at Viva El Birdos.

If you enjoy this episode, please be sure to like and subscribe to our channel. We are available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all of your favorite audio streaming platforms. Today’s special guest is a man who needs no introduction to Cardinals fans, but because I’m me, we’re gonna give him one anyway. Former writer for Birds on Black and MLB.com, host of the lauded Prospects After Dark show, current contributor to the CardinalNation.com, and co-host of Wednesdays with Walton and Reis, welcome back to the show. My bald brother, Kyle Reis!

Kyle Reis (01:02)
Hi fellas, thanks for having me. I’m excited to talk it over. You guys are gonna get the whole dog experience today, because my little Minnie Doxon is two years old today and she is on fire. As long as we’ve been talking for the lead-up to this.

She has been trying to nip at me and grab me. And so she’s gonna be a part of the show whether we like it or not.

Jake Wood (01:37)
We are a pro Auggy show here, so Aggie, not Augie, Aggie show here, so but anyway, to make Kyle feel more at home, you know, my name is Jake Wood, and this is Brian’s partner, Kyle Reis. Welcome, Kyle.

Kyle Reis (01:41)
Hey guys.

Jake Wood (01:54)
An exciting last couple of weeks for the St. Louis Cardinals, JJ Wetherholt signing a long-term extension, Jordan Walker winning the home run derby. The Cardinals took a lot of exciting young talent in the amateur draft, and all things that we’re gonna get into today with Kyle. But before we get into those topics, because Kyle is left-handed, and by old definition means he’s clearly untrustworthy, yesterday was a very exciting day for all left-handers, whenever Quinn Matthews, Cooper Hjerpe, and Brandon Clarke all displayed various reasons why Cardinals fans should be excited about what’s coming up through the system. You know, Kyle, are we inching closer to seeing some of these higher-upside pitching prospects at the big league level? I know that, you know, the Cardinals shifted Quinn Matthews to start yesterday to potentially be in line to start sometime in the next week or so because the Cardinals are now, you know, twenty-three straight days or something like that without an off day. You know, what w what are we about to see, or are we about to see some exciting young pitching come to the big league level?

Kyle Reis (02:56)
I suspect that in the very near future, we will be seeing Quinn. Not only because of the realignment, but you know, one way or the other, after the trade deadline, there’s gonna be a gap in the rotation. And I would assume because I think we can all kind of agree that Dustin May is probably going to get traded. But whether that happens or not, it is, you know, as we’re recording this, it’s the 19th of July. Within the next month, there’s going to be an opportunity for somebody, one of these kids, to make an impact. And outside of Hunter Dobbins, because Hunter Dobbins really is, you know, the elephant in the room when it comes to prospect promotions to the major leagues and the pitching staff. But I do think we’ll see Quinn. And then what happens as a backfilling move to that’ll be really fascinating to watch too. You know, I am a Cooper Hjerpe enthusiast. So when I get to watch Cooper Hjerpe any day, I’m really fired up about it. And my interest in Cooper, even though he throws in the low 90s, he’s just filthy, and he throws from a weird slot, and he’s fun to watch. So when that’s happening at the same time that Quinn Matthews, who has now refined his mechanics, is back to pitching with tempo, which he hasn’t done since 2024. So he’s back to pitching with tempo. He’s throwing all of his stuff is moving better than it did all of last year, and even at the beginning of this year, and he’s gotten back to his velocity, not the high-end velocity that we saw in 2024, but that mid-90s, peaking at 96, flashing close to 97 velocity. When that’s going on, and he’s landing that changeup, and he’s not walking people, and he’s bullying righties with a slider, which is what happened last night, while Cooper Hjerpe bullying everybody with his slider and changeup, except for throwing one bad 91 mile an hour fastball right over the middle of the plate that a righty took to the opposite field for a home run. And then all of this was the built-up to, wait, Brandon Clarke is, by the way, throwing 103 miles an hour and a sinker profile that no lefty has ever displayed in the history of tracking sinkers in baseball.

It it’s hard not to just soak in that excitement. You know, all three of these pitchers have their flaws. Along with all of the pitchers in the organization, there is not one near-flawless pitcher. But when that’s just the microcosm of what’s going on in the system on any given night, it’s a really exciting thing. You know, I can’t think of a night all year where there hasn’t been at least one or two pitchers that I’ve made a point to like zone in on. And it’s been years since the Cardinals have had that. Yeah, I, you might say that they probably never had it the way that they’ve had it right now. So it’s just an exciting state for the Cardinals’ pitching staff to be in on the farm.

Gabe (05:29)
You think, and this is obviously like up to the Cardinals, even though they’re gonna keep working as a starter, that they’ll try to put Cooper Hjerpe in the bullpen to end this year because he can only throw so many innings anyway, and the Cardinals could certainly use a lefty.

Kyle Reis (05:43)
I can’t wait to see how they work with Cooper Hjerpe. You, the thing that I was told is that the situation with Cooper and his future is very fluid. Basically, the success that he has or how he’s flashing what he’s flashing is going to end up determining what role he has. You know, I I would say so far, since coming off of the Tommy John, working through his rehab stint, that’s been a lot of ups and downs where you could definitely see him maintaining that starter role, like getting into the starter role, but it that whole since he was drafted, the projection of it all where he he people have projected him to be a reliever, it definitely seems more and more likely. I do think, and you know, with only including with only when rosters expand in September to only two more people, it kind of makes it a little bit, a little bit more muddled. But I would not be surprised if we get to September. And since he’s already on the 40-man, he’s one of the guys who gets the call or the cap tip. If he continues to pitch this way, you know, he’s up to 60 pitches right now, and we have about a month before we get, you know, a month and a half before we get to September. And I’m anxious to see what his pitch count looks like when we get into September, because my hope is that he’s on the 80- 90 plan that all the other starters are on in the organization. But I would not be surprised if they’re still not letting him get to 80 pitches. And at that point, I think that that is the ultimate tell that he’s going to be a reliever or given a chance to relieve at the major league level, probably without a chance to ever be a starter like Kyle Leahy has.

Jake Wood (07:12)
Kyle, you know, with Cooper Hjerpe specifically, and you know my concerns or my fears with him and them potentially pushing him a little bit too hard, obviously coming off of the arm injury, and he’s never even experienced, you know, life at the Triple-A level using the big league ball, and obviously we know that that in itself is a transition. You know, is it is it g would it be asking too much of him to be that, you know, potential reliever in September? Do you think it’d be like smarter long term to kind of just put the brakes on him a little in terms of like this year, because obviously he would, he could very well just impact the team, the major league level next season, but you know, is your opinion that they should be, you know, all systems go forward and try to push him that quickly, or would it be smarter long term for his, you know, development to to kind of pump the brakes and allow him to at least go through some struggles at Triple A and feel that and and get used to pitching with that big league baseball?

Kyle Reis (08:16)
Jake, I honestly think both things are right here. I think the latter, you know, in particular, playing it slow with him would make sense, especially coming off of Tommy John, because we know that command is one of those things, takes a little extra time off Tommy John. But at the same time, I don’t think the Cardinals have done, and it’s a different development staff, really, but I don’t think the Cardinals have done Cooper Hjerpe any favors by being extra careful with him over the years. I don’t think that s suits his personality. And quite frankly, again, I believe that he’s a durable young man. I do believe that he’ll he’ll he he’s capable of starting. But quite frankly, like there’s only so many bullets in that arm. I think that’s a fair thing to say. And I do think if you want to reap the benefits of that first-round draft pick, it would behoove you to get him to the majors as soon as possible. So far, I guess you’re right in thinking that you should take it slow with him. And I would imagine that that’s what the Cardinals will do, and that’s probably the smartest thing to do. But if you’re asking me what I would do, I I would I would have him answer Gabe’s question; I would have him ready to participate in September out of the Cardinals’ bullpen just to see what it looks like. Again, you’re not if it’s a matter of building up innings for 2027; you’re not gonna get that. That’s already out the window. So what you’re trying to find out is what kind of role can he supplement for the Cardinals in 2027. At least that’s what I would be doing. I don’t know if that’s what they’re going to be doing. And in that case, yeah, I think that it would behoove them to push him a little harder this year. And honestly, if I know it, I know enough about his personality, and maybe you do need to throttle it back because of his personality, that he wants it and he’s ready for it. And that’s what will probably push him to the next step of his development.

Gabe (09:53)
And I assume he’s spending August in Memphis or something like that, right? He’s not just gonna skip straight to the majors.

Kyle Reis (09:59)
Yeah, I would think that that would be the case. You know, ideally, the way that my mind works, and it might not go this way, but you see Quinn Matthews make a major league debut whenever that happens, and that Cooper would backfill that role. But you know, it could end up being Braden Davis. It’s not like they don’t have a couple of other arms at Springfield that could backfill, but that’s how I would handle it if these guys continue on their current trajectories.

Jake Wood (10:26)
So, like, at double-A, we’ve seen some other guys, like you mentioned, that could backfill. We’ve seen a couple of other guys who’ve already made the transition from Double-A to Triple-A, like a Jurrangelo Cintje and Mason Molina. Obviously, there are names that are starting to filter upwards that are exciting for Cardinals fans. Another lefty who’s working his way back, who should have been in Triple-A for the majority of the season, is Ixan Henderson. What’s the latest with Ixan that you’ve been hearing, and how soon are we from getting a potential return from him as well?

Kyle Reis (10:57)
Yeah, you know, it took him a little bit longer to get through his, I guess, rehab after his arm kerfuffle. So he is he’s a little slower. Of course, he’s he is pitching in the FCL, starting a rehab. I would imagine that we will see him at Palm Beach very soon, very similar to how we saw Brandon Clarke. And, you know, my understanding is that they were extra careful with him. You know, again, pull the reins back on him a little bit to get him to a point where they wouldn’t be worried about how he would respond once he got back on a mound in a competitive environment. So I would suspect, and I asked Brian about this on the last podcast with Wednesdays and Walton, Wednesdays with Walton, is I wonder how close to like the Pete Hansen rehab he’ll be, where you know he made a couple he’s in the FCL- makes a couple Palm Beach appearances as a starter, and then is up to Memphis. I think that they’re gonna be a little slower with his rehab because of how long he’s been out. The arm issue was a little bit more serious. I and I I don’t remember what it was. My brain is malted over. So I don’t remember exactly what it was, but it was a little more serious. So they’re gonna be a little bit more purposeful in how they bring him along. But the last I heard is that he was healthy and ready to go, much like Brandon Clarke was the other night. But not like that, because he doesn’t throw 102 miles an hour, he throws like 93, and not quite as as sen sensational as Mr. Clarke does.

Gabe (12:21)
Can I ask about a player absolutely nobody’s asking about right now, which is which is Thomas Saggese? And I’m wondering how many games in Memphis you’ve seen. How does he look? His stats aren’t that great, but he’s walking more, striking out less, and his xwOBA is like way better than what his actual wOBA is, but he’s got a little BABIP, and his power’s not quite there. So are you seeing like improved approach and everything from him in Memphis?

Kyle Reis (12:25)
Mm.

You know earlier this week I kind of I threw something out there and it’s it’s been really really tough to watch victor scott and thomas Saggese and Nolan Gorman at Triple-A because it’s just like even when even when things go well for them they don’t they don’t have any luck and that’s and really that’s just like a lead in with Saggese where he’s the one of that group where you can actually see that like he’s taking a different at bat it really is you he’s he’s trying as hard as possible to be as purposeful within is that bat as possible. You can see it. It’s not that the veil is not over it. So, Gabe, I think you’re on to it. I think with him, I’m very much trying to make a concerted effort to build this deficiency up into something that can work for me and make it a part of how I take it at bat. And I think that that’s why you’ve seen the home run scale back. I think he’s up there trying to work counts, trying to identify pitches better, and to make it part of who he is instead of what we heard a year ago, where it was. I’m trying to get better, and he did get better, and then he regressed to the mean. I think he’s trying to make that a part of the batter, the hitter he is. So he’s the one. And again, not to go, not to go too far off. You know, to your we’ll stick with Thomas. To your point, like I I do think that there’s real development going on there still with him that could turn him into that utility player similar to what we’ve seen out of Jose Fermin at the major league level. But I do wanna, just since we’re talking about it and since I brought him up.

It is bad for Nolan Gorman, and it is bad for Victor Scott, and it does not seem like there’s any development going on. It just seems like they’re churning; they’re just churning in mud.

Jake Wood (14:22)
Hmm. Well, you know, from failed former prospects in essence to one that is taking off like a rocket, the Cardinals appear to have struck gold with JJ Weatherholt and paid for his weight’s worth in it as well, signing JJ to an eight-year extension for $112 million. How symbolic has this season been for JJ and the Cardinals as a whole? You know, you remember back to Opening day, JJ took the first at bat of this, you know, new era of Cardinals baseball, and now four months later he’s signing the first you know, extension with the team of what Bill DeWitt the Third or, you know, “Triple Sticks,” as you refer to him as, the you know, the first of more to come. Can you speak to not only the symbolism in making JJ the first to be extended, but also, you know, who might be next in line in that conversation to be extended?

Kyle Reis (15:02)
Mm. Yeah, you know, one of the things that I kind of point to is, you know, I was born and raised in St. Louis City. Up until a year ago, I had lived there my whole life. And in a lot of ways, JJ Weatherhurt Holt kind of personifies that blue-collar St. Louis City, like the way he plays baseball, his personality, it kind of it’s kind of perfectly personifies what goes on in St. Louis and how St. Louisans kind of view themselves. You know, it’s the hockey player mentality in a lot of ways. You know, he’s gonna go out there, and he’s gonna take his thumps. He’s gonna give his best effort every night. You’re never gonna see him, you know, dog a ball down to first, or you know, he’s never gonna take a playoff. And he’s gonna do it as best as he can. And to see him immediately hit the scene and be the best version of himself, and, you know, what you see and what we don’t see, of course- stuff behind the scenes also lends itself to that type of personality. So it’s not just for me; it’s not just for me about how it aligns with the Cardinals and their rebuild and the first at-bat and the first contract extension of this new era of Cardinal baseball. I think it’s also a cap tip to the city itself that this is what we’re trying to build. This is what we’re looking at. It’s not just about first-round talent. It’s about what you do when you get your opportunity and how you run with it and how you work with it, the teammate you can be, the leader you are, both, you know, in every capacity. So I think it’s symbolic in that way. It’s not just, it’s not just about the first extension of the new era. It’s a cap tip to Cardinal fans in general and the city itself, but Cardinal fans in general, that this is the player, this is the attitude, this is the work ethic that we are going to build around. And also I I do think in some capacity it’s a cap tip to the fans that hey, look, we heard you.

We know that you love JJ Weatherholt, and we’re we’re going to buy out a couple of years of his free agency and pay him along the way. And I really do think that that that’s that kind of speaks to it. You know, as far as who’s next, I don’t know. I’m after the home run derby, you know, I was like, hey, let’s just give Jordan Walker a billion dollars. Well, what are we doing? Like 10 years, 25 years, however much he wants, just give it to him. But you know, I really don’t know what’s to come next. I know that there’s been some conversation about

Triple sticks words about who might be next, or it might be the first of many. I I for me, that was more just rhetoric than anything else, just announcing that they’re willing to be open to this stuff, then they’re leaning towards something. But yeah, I, you know, I look at that roster, and for me, even though Ivan Herrera has struggled, I’d like to see what an Ivan Herrera extension would look like. You know, I like a lot of these players, and I’m really open and excited to see what direction they go in with them. I mean, what do you guys think? Would you go, Jordan Walker? What would be your next route?

Gabe (18:05)
Well, I’m gonna plant my flag on Masyn Winn. That’s my I wanna sign into an extension ’cause I think his bat will get better at some point. I, despite evidence not necessarily showing it so far. But I just like to see some classic great defenders in the past at shortstop who got to play every game, and then eventually Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, all those guys their bats at some point later in their career, were closer to whatever their peak was. And I think that’s the case with Masyn, and I would love to extend him before that happens, which is likely if it’s going to happen, while he’s still in his team control years. So I’m for Masyn Winn personally. And Jordan Walker, but Masyn Winn seems like he’s more affordable.

Jake Wood (18:52)
Well, I guess if I have a flag to plant, I’m gonna go a different direction. I’m going over to first baseman, Big Burley, Alec Burleson. You know, you talk about a guy who is consistent, professional at bat every single time, gives you impact, gives you stability. You know, you look at it like not only with JJ Weatherholdt, I think the Cardinals really like to lean into certainty whenever they’re extending players, whenever they’re handing out big contracts. And I think that you can easily look at Alec Burleson as that 20 to 25 home run guy, probably hits in the 260 to 280 range annually. Like, you know what you’re gonna get. We look we saw Tyler Soderstrom get an extension this past offseason, and you know, when you look at the numbers, comparatively speaking, they’re very similar in their production output. So you can look at maybe a five-by-seventy-five type of extension for an Alec Burleson that will put him right around like age thirty-two, I believe, whenever that would be completed, and you buy out the rest of his arbitration plus a couple of those free agent years. I think it makes all the sense in the world, you know, you have the guy that is, like, along with Jordan Walker, you know, leading the charge offensively. I think that Alec Burleson has, you know, what was it last year, Oli Marmol said after last season that no other player above Alec Burleson took advantage of the runway, the opportunity that he was given. And so I think that rewarding that and, you know, not only J.J. Wetherholt but also Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, these guys who have taken meaningful steps forward in their career and you know, paying those guys as, like also you know, a message to the younger guys, like, hey this is the this is the carrot at the end of the stick. You take your steps forward, you achieve those positive steps forward, we will reward you with, you know, financial commitment and long-term commitment to you. So I think that, you know, there’s some symbolism there would be some symbolism in rewarding an Alec Burleson as well.

Kyle Reis (20:48)
Yeah. And I think that’s an interesting one too. I you know, it’s funny because both of those guys, the one thing about Cardinal fans being so smart is sometimes we, and this I’m speaking very much out of like out of my own heart here. This is something that I do. I try to overthink the process, right? So, like people might say, Hey, don’t extend Alec Burleson because you’re kind of still kind of outside your championship window. You could get a haul for him, and like, wouldn’t that benefit your team more?

And for me, I think one of the things I’m trying to backpedal on a little bit more is to just be like, yeah, that’s great. But this is a player that I like to watch, who’s fun to watch, who’s contributing. Like, isn’t that better than in some cases, not in every case, but with Burleson in particular, and with Masyn Winn, because all of a sudden Masyn Winn is getting a lot of blowback from fans about his offensive production. And I for frankly, I don’t think it’s fair, because we’ve seen him put up some good offensive numbers. But with both of those guys, I think that I think that as a fan, instead of trying to be smart, instead of trying to be the GM or the president of baseball operations, I think it behoves us to kind of be like, hey, you know what? I want them to sign these guys. I want them to keep these guys around. And I want them to build around every one of these players that we’ve mentioned: Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, J.J. Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn. Like, that is the core. I mean, that and that core also fit in your championship window. It could be the catalyst for the explosion that ends up being a championship run. Without sacking you too financially too much into the future. So I I I’m I like all of these guys, and I do hope that especially with Burleson, that that’s how they’re looking at it as opposed to is this an asset that we can just turn into some other assets?

Gabe (22:30)
Basically, don’t be the Rays.

Jake Wood (22:32)
That yeah.

Kyle Reis (22:32)
The Cardinals don’t have to be the Rays here, right? Like they can be if they choose. Like you know, Lars Nootbaar, if they decide to do that, I would understand why they would move Lars Nootbaar. You know, Dustin May, of course, like we talked, like be smart with the assets. I just don’t think Alec Burleson is there yet, where you have to feel like he’s outside of your championship window.

Jake Wood (22:51)
Fully agree. Now, to Jordan Walker, you know, winning the home run derby and being the first Cardinal to do so was an incredible feat, you know, and one that was done with a lot of drama and excitement, overcoming eleven home runs in the final round to beat hometown hero Kyle Schwarber in Philadelphia. You know, this is the Jordan Walker we were always promised, but the journey to where he is now was certainly not linear, right? What is your level of confidence, Kyle, that you know his performance has staying power and that his ability to continue evolving his profile can produce a potential perennial MVP candidate?

Kyle Reis (23:29)
You know, everybody I know who is smarter than me and associated with major league teams tells me that this is for real. It’s not, it’s not an aberration, it’s not something he’s gonna fall back or regress to the mean. He’s going to go through stints where he is not particularly good, but that’s because every major league baseball player goes through that. You know, when you have conversations maybe associated with the Cardinals, they’ll tell you that they believe, through the coaching staff, that he has kind of reached a point where he knows how to reset. And that’s the key there. So I will say, like, the fan in me that has watched the Cardinals for the last 10 years and watched talent peak and then regress quickly, like I’m not quite there where I feel like this is going to stick, but everybody I know tells me that it is. And I trust them more than I trust myself. And I know that if this continues, it’ll be the most fun we’ve had watching one singular player in years.

Gabe (24:23)
Yeah, and that it I with Jordan Walker’s home run derby; literally my attitude was, Jordan, “I’m sorry, I was not familiar with your game” because I had no expectations about him in the home run derby whatsoever. I was like, he’s gonna ’cause he’s a like a line drive hitter more, but somehow he made it a like I’m gonna hit the line drives that just keep going until they so I was like I d I didn’t think that would play in the home run derby. It was like the Pujols problem when he was in the Home Run Derby. He was just too much of a line-drive hitter. He couldn’t like

Jake Wood (24:31)
Yeah.

Kyle Reis (24:44)
Yeah.

Gabe (24:53)
But hey, you know what? I’m all aboard that, and also I think as bad as he looks on some of his at-bats, his strikeout rate actually isn’t that high anymore. I don’t know if like ’cause he looks silly on some plate appearances, but it’s like twenty-five percent, which that’ll play for sure. I’m a lot more optimistic about Jordan Walker since his K rate went from like thirty-one percent to twenty-five percent ’cause that was the problem, like Tyler O’Neill. He’s just inconsistent ’cause he wasn’t making contact enough. But if Walker can

Kyle Reis (25:10)
Yeah. Yeah.

Gabe (25:22)
Minimize the strikeouts as much as possible, then I think we might, yeah, we might have a star in our hands.

Kyle Reis (25:28)
Yeah. You’re right, you’re right. That twenty-five does seem like the magic number for him. You know, twenty-five-twenty-six somewhere around there. And again, that constant adjusting, adjusting to that breaking pitch. You know, because he like you said, sometimes he’s still flailing out at that slider out of the zone. That’s something he’s always going to struggle with. I think we can all agree on that at this point. It’s just a matter of how he adjusts to that struggle. And that’s been the major key this year: still hunting pitches, adjusting better to the fastball, right? Because we saw them start to blow fastballs by him last year, as he was crippled by that outside breaking pitch. He’s adjusted to that. He’s rotating on that better. And he’s also fighting off that pitch that got him all of 2023, 24, and 25. So yeah, look, I think you’re right. I think the strikeout percentage is really the telltale. And we’re also seeing him continue to evolve as a hitter, getting more power, lowering his strikeout rate, and also continuing to drive the ball all over the field. So I’m excited about it. I do think it has staying power. And I know to your point, Gabe.

Watching those line drive missiles and the home run derby from round one until the end with barely any wasted motion. it wasn’t like he was trying to hit it. He was just swinging the bat, was some of the most enjoyable, lighthearted baseball moments I’ve had as a Cardinal fan in years, I think.

Gabe (26:44)
Yeah.

Jake Wood (26:44)
Well, they don’t ask you how; they ask you how many, right? And that was his ultimate goal: to hit as many as possible. It didn’t matter how far it went, as long as the number was greater than eleven. And kinda to your point, Gabe, about the strikeout rate, yes, Jordan Walker’s gonna have some moments where he swings and misses, and like that, that’s gonna happen. But I wonder if, as fans in general, at what point are we also able to kind of contextualize this conversation and also say that, you know what? That pitcher executed a good pitch and simply got Jordan Walker out. How often are we able are we capable of just being able to, like, you know, to use Kyle’s wording, to tip our just tip your cap to the pitcher, because the opposition is a major leaguer too, and they execute on their pitches, and sometimes they make the best hitters look, you know. They say the best counter to good offense is good pitching. So, like it the good pitching beats good hitting always. So, you know, sometimes it’s just gonna happen. But

Kyle Reis (27:36)
Mm-hmm.

Jake Wood (27:41)
To be able to lean on and rely on the fact that you know, Jordan Walker, Oli talks about this on the Gashouse Gang, is like they have he he has- the cues to be able to tether himself back to. So if he starts getting outside of, you know, what he is supposed to do mechanically, they can go back and look at what he was doing to give him success, to allow him to, as Kyle said, reset. So I think that has kind of been the major sticking point for him this season. And it’s just been really refreshing to watch him be able to like Kyle said reset and then also show the ability to make adjustments and and improve the pitch selection to be able to do damage on against pitch certain pitches that frankly last year or two years ago he he wasn’t gonna come anywhere close to touching or making contact with

You know, from the current to the future, you know the Cardinals drafted Trevor Condon, Tegan Kuhns, and Rocco Maniscalco with their first three picks. What did you make of their draft, Kyle? It seems that across third-party outlets, they felt that the Cardinals came away with one or maybe if not the best hauls in the twenty twenty-six cycle.

Kyle Reis (28:53)
Yeah, it’s just a group of exciting players, you know. I I we were talking about it with Kareem a little bit on Wednesdays with Walton and Reis, but you know, we when you do all this draft prep, when you watch all these highlights and you watch all of you know all of collegiate baseball throughout the year, you you tune in here and there, and there’s so many games and you’re trying to stay up to date and you’re watching draft boards and you’re watching draft rankings and you’re trying to learn about players, you end up picking players and you’re like, Man, I love this guy, man, I love this guy, man, I love this guy. And you know, you become attached to players, and you like players, and then the Cardinals never draft any of those players. And you’re, and you know, it’s not frustrating because that’s not the right way of putting it, but you know, in your heart, you’re like, man, I know that these players are good. And then you watch them perform well on other teams. And sure, the Cardinals’ prospects also perform well, but you have this allegiance to these players because you’ve been following them and watching them and liking them. Well, this year was, and this, of course, influences my bias. This year, they happened to draft guys that I loved, like those that I personally had invested a lot of time and energy into and had highlighted as some of the better prospects in the draft. So to watch this all unfold, the Cardinals drafting players that I personally would have drafted, and I personally would have highlighted, and to watch it was just a really exciting thing to see like, to see the Cardinals. There’s an evolution here in the Cardinals’ draft philosophy. And it aligns with the player development side. And they communicate so well together that you can see their hands shaking each other in the draft. And to watch the Cardinals kind of modernize their draft decisions based on the modernization of player development and what player development is asking for. And that to coincide with what we as fans are starting to really zone in on as an interesting and carrying tools for talent at an amateur level. And to watch it all come together in the 2026 draft.

Because that’s exactly what happened. It was a perfect marriage of all of these things that you want as a as an analyst to come together. That’s exactly what happened. And it was a beautiful, beautiful thing. You know, so anyway, that’s just to say that especially that day one in the beginning of day two, it could not have gone any better for the Cardinals, in my opinion, from both a quality and a quantity standpoint, for the draft as possible. It was it was exciting prospect after exciting prospect with very, very little waste or question mark or interest in there. even the ones that were question marks, as you’ve come to learn more and more about you’re like, I get what they’re doing here. It makes sense for keys to success at the major league level or the minor league level and in modern baseball.

Gabe (31:37)
So you since you were a big fan and I read some, I’m mostly positive, but some differing stuff. I wanna ask you to counter a couple of the negatives of two of the players that were highly acclaimed picks. Trevor Condon, I saw this is probably a very minor opinion, but compared to the Pete Kozma pick, a little bit, I would like you to react to that because Pete Kozma was of high floor mostly defense guy whose bat was a question mark. That’s, I know you’re scrunching your eyes there, Jake. But I get the comparison even though I don’t think it’s right. And then with Rocco, I did see some talk where he just did not make enough contact at all in his last year. And what would your counters to that be with people who were against those picks or didn’t think they were as good?

Kyle Reis (32:23)
Yeah, I will say Trevor Condon’s an interesting one to me. You know, I know Keith Law had him as like his 41st best draft prospect. And I know nearly every other outlet had him in, like, the, we’ll just say, the 10 to 18 range. And for me, Trevor Condon is somewhere in between those two groups. One thing that I really like is both raw and in-game power. And I think when you’re drafting a first-round draft pick, you have to have, of course, the bat-to-ball skills, bat speed, but you have to have in-game power there to feel really comfortable with your first-round pick, especially if it’s the top 15 pick. And what are people going to do with Trevor Condon, the people who doubt Trevor Condon, and I am one of those people who kind of doubt Trevor Condon a little bit. I I think I think he’s going to be good. I think he has the bat speed and the strength to get to power. But I think most of those people will say, hey, look, this is a kid who could not hit home runs until his senior year in high school, and he only hit nine in Georgia. Again, it was against really good competition. And he was still the Gatorade Player of the Year in Georgia. So that’s worth mentioning as well. But the two things that people are going to say, they’re going to say he he he’s not hitting for power, and he’s not going to be able to hit for power because of the way his hands work within his mechanics. He starts high, and he drops him, and he kind of swings the bat sometimes like it’s a tennis racket on a backhand with two hands. And I think that that’s what we’ve seen out of prospects who swing the bat that way: it’s hard for them to get to real power as they climb the minor league ladder. So when you draft someone like that, you hope that because he has, you know, elite prep-level bat-to-ball skills, his bat-to-ball skills will carry him until he finally gets to power, until they can adjust his mechanics and get to power. But as we found with Ryan Mitchell, who’s also kind of can he get to power? He has really good bat-to-ball skills. How does this all click? Will it all click as you try to implement one without sacrificing the other? So I think that would be like that, my counter to that would be

This kid’s gonna hit one way or the other. I don’t know if the power will come or not, but it’s not ever gonna dip below, like, he’s not ever gonna be like a 220, 300, you know, two twenty batting average, three hundred on base percentage. He makes smarter swing decisions than that. He has better bat-to-ball skills than that. Even though he does have, you know, everybody talks about his motor and his defensive skills and his speed and all that, and his work ethic, all that stuff will play into it. Not to say Pete Kozma didn’t have that, but I think that that would be the complaint.

Why would you say that you would question that? And also, I would say as a counter to that, like the kid’s gonna hit no matter what happens. And that’s something you can’t guarantee with a lot of these picks, especially on the prep level in the first round. And then with Rocco, I don’t know how to counter the Rocco thing, other than to say, watching him is a treat. And you know, I’ve talked to people who scout the prep ranks, and you know, what I will tell people is when you’re talking about somebody who just who reclassified from the 2027 class to the 2026 class, who’s the youngest kid drafted in any draft in the history of drafts? There’s rawness there that you just have to take into account. And you don’t know how the rawness is gonna polish. What you hope is that they can work hard and that they take to the teachings of the organization that drafts him. And by every indication, that’s what Rocco Maniscalco is going to be able to do. But when you talk to these guys who have watched him play, they would have told you that, you know, if he wouldn’t have reclassified, he’d probably be in line to be a top-three pick in the 2027 draft. That he might have been the first overall pick in the 2027 draft. And all it would have taken was just a little adjusting. While his swing can get a little long, it’s not so long, and it’s not so unorthodox for a 17-year-old to overcome it in one season. And I think the Cardinals will allow him; working with the Cardinals will allow him to cut that distance pretty, pretty markedly. So you know, again, I can’t, I cannot say to those people who question Rocco Menescalso. Maniscalco and his bat, how will it perform at the Major League level? I I don’t have the the the I guess the raw data or anything to prove. What I can tell you is that there is real raw power in there. He is a true athlete who’s gonna stick it short and who moves around exceedingly well and has explosive levers and explosive motions. And I believe because of how dedicated he is to the sport, how he’s driven to be as good as he can be, that within a year or two, we’ll start to see those question marks.

That are his batted ball profile and his contact rates start to level out as a 19-year-old at Palm Beach. And he’s taking that step to be a top 100 prospect. But it is a gamble. You know, they’re gonna give him between three point, my guess is between three point seven five and four point one million dollars for a bonus to sign as a 50th overall pick. And it is very much a gamble that will take longer to pay off than.

Mm, probably any other draft pick that the Cardinals made in twenty twenty-six.

Jake Wood (37:13)
You know, you show me a person who, you know, doubts a seventeen-year-old’s ability to become something of any type of high-quality or caliber, and I’ll show you a fool. Anybody who’s sitting here telling you they know exactly what a seventeen-year-old is ever gonna become is foolish. And so I just that’s why I squinted my eyes- ’cause it’s like, I don’t know how you can make any definitive determination about a raw seventeen like, as Kyle said, one of the youngest prep players ever drafted. There is so much runway in front of him. And on top of that, like, I had Nate Rasmussen on last week. You know, he does really great work over at Overslot. If you guys haven’t checked that episode out, go check that out because Nate’s fantastic, always great with the information. he compared Maniscalco to Billy Carlson, who was drafted last year by the White Sox. And so, if you- I know they’re a little bit more raw in their hitting ability than what Billy Carlson’s capable of or has already shown capabilities of. But the defensive ability in Acumen, he feels they’re on a similar plane. And to say that you might have potentially gotten a guy at fifty that was a top ten pick the year before would be really great value. You know, same thing with Trevor Condon. He, Comp, and I know Kyle how you are about comps, but I’m just throwing this out there. He compared Trevor Condon to a Max Clark-type player. He didn’t see PCA; he doesn’t really get the Lenny Dykstra of it all, but he saw a lot of Max Clark in Trevor Condon. So like, again, a top five pick you’re getting at thirteen. There’s really good value there if they are comparable players, if they wind up on a similar trajectory. All of that being said, nothing is for sure, nothing is ever like for sure predictive, but to know that the Cardinals targeted players with the same types of potential skill sets as those types of top ten picks, I don’t know how you can be anything but just excited and and enthusiastic about what the future could potentially hold for the Cardinals and this draft class that they brought in. Kyle, I did want to jump to one other player the Cardinals drafted really quickly, one that’s super fascinating to me. Fifth-round pick Cal Randall out of UCLA. This dude has the best fastball in the entire draft. But the Cardinals got him in the fifth round, and again it’s a big, almost 80-grade fastball. I I would be I would be comfortable putting an 80 on that on the fastball. But he has no secondaries whatsoever to speak of. He kind of plays with a changeup. It’s a usable pitch. They’re just gonna sit the fastball and do the best they can with it.

I talked a little bit about this with Nate, and I’ve also been listening to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, and they kind of firmly believe that this is a reliever-only profile. I still kind of wonder if this is the guy, kind of like Tanner Franklin last year, that they try to at least see what it looks like as a starter and to move forward with it from there. See if they can develop a s a a quality secondary to go along with that big fastball.

You know, what do you see from Cal Randall, and do you think that there is starter potential in there?

Kyle Reis (40:29)
Yeah, 100% I do. And I don’t think the Cardinals would have drafted him with their fifth-round pick if they didn’t think that they would at least give it a runway. You know, because of how di dynamic that fastball is, he’s always going to get a chance to be in the bullpen really quickly. That’s that’s it. But one way or the other, to be a bullpen piece at the major league level, he’s going to need something else. The Cardinals are going to develop him as a starter. That is a fact.

It doesn’t mean that when he makes his debut in the organization, it won’t be out of the bullpen or something like that. But the plan is to develop him as a starter. Now, I’ve seen a lot of really smart people that I agree with that say what he needs to do is do the Lance Lynn focus on fastballs, right? Do a sinker, 4-seam, cutter, and start there and see where it goes from there. And I think that that is a great way to start. Personally, I would like to see him develop the changeup as little as possible. I think that it’s not a bad thing to have in his pocket against lefties to continue to work on.

But to me, like you shelf that pitch as much as you feel comfortable doing. Really, his secondary offering that I’m most interested in is this little cut slider that he has. That’s really just a cutter, but sometimes he throws it with a little extra juice, and it moves a little bit more east to west. I think to me, I think that’s where you start. I don’t know if you start with the sinker right away, but you go fastball, cutter, and you continue to augment him, teach him how to throw. How to grip it and rip it so that it’s a traditional gyro slider and can also be a cutter. I think you start there and you s you backpedal from there. You build from there, you know, without knowing how comfortable he is gripping baseballs, you know, or how his arms are going to maintain throwing opposite or throwing these different pitches. I can’t really say for sure. But for me, if I’m building him and I’m building him slow and I’m trying to take it easy and get him in a starter’s repertoire, I’m starting with how do I augment the pitch that he already throws, which is like a cuttery slider and how do I make that work for me and then build on from there because I think that’s the best way to do it. But yeah, look, I think that I do think 100% that, and I know 100% that they’re going to start with the intent of building them up as a starter because that’s there’s more value there. And you know what, if it doesn’t click, then hopefully you’ve developed a secondary pitch that’s as good or at least as manageable as that primary elite fastball so that he can have success at the major league level.

Gabe (42:38)
Can you share some thoughts on Tegan Kuhns, who, despite being drafted from Tennessee, is I I from what I understand, not the same as Liam Doyle and Tanner Franklin. Like they’re a different type of prospect.

Kyle Reis (42:50)
Yeah, yeah. So if you were to marry old Cardinal Scouting with new Cardinal Scouting, you would have Tegan Kuhns. He’s a strike thrower who throws from that low launch angle that the card the that the Cardinals have highlighted. He has a good like a good fastball that actually I I think I think most scouts that have actually watched him will tell you that the fastball might actually be the question mark here, even though it it plays well and it has traits that you that suggest that it would it it has you know it would be like a 60 grade fastball or something like that. But really, what I’m encouraged by is that all the scouts say that his slider is his best secondary offering. And I don’t think you can argue that. But what he did as he went down, as the season progressed for Tennessee, was he started throwing his curveball more. And that made his slider work better. And his curveball was getting better and better and better and better and better. And sure, sometimes he hangs it, and it gets banged. Sometimes that just happens. But I’ve watched what I’ve watched is I’ve watched these two off-speed pitches develop into actionable, developmental pitches that could help carry him to the major leagues. And he commands it all pretty well. The fastball, what gets in string with the fastball, even though it measures well and it has the potential to be a plus pitch, is that he uses it kind of weird. And I’m anxious to see how the Cardinals supplement this, how they change it. But a lot of times when you watch him in a start, he uses this fastball, which plays really well up in the zone, low in the zone. He kind of peppers it low in the zone, low in the zone, low in zone low in the zone. And then as the game works.

Like works on, he goes higher and higher and higher and higher in the zone, helping it play up as he fatigues out a little bit. So I cannot wait to see how that augments. If the Cardinals just say, hey, look, you gotta use this thing up in the zone from the start of the game until the end, and if that helps it play up, but it is still susceptible to a little bit of damage, more so than fastballs that measure similarly from similar angles. But yeah, again, Tegan Kuhns is fun because, you know, in some ways, this is the Michael Wacha strike-throwing profile with the stuff of the modern ask of the development and scouting side. So this is this is this is not Tanner Franklin. He’s gonna get to the majors quicker than that. He has better command than that. This is not Liam Doyle, where you’re questioning some of the off-speed offerings, but you know his fastball is gonna carry him. He’s some amalgamation of old and new. And that gets me excited as somebody who really appreciates both the old technique and the new technique.

Gabe (45:16)
Is he targeted for Peoria, would you say? Or even Springfield, maybe?

Kyle Reis (45:20)
So I would suspect that when we see him in twenty twenty seven that he will be in Peoria. That’s that would be my guess, is that will be his first landing spot.

Jake Wood (45:28)
To kind of go back to the Cal Randall of it all real quick, you talked about a cutter and a slider, you know, commonly referred to in baseball as a “slutter.” I don’t think there is a more Kyle Reis affectionately titled type of pitch. I also just want to get to Kyle. Thank you so much for being here today. We really appreciate your time. Again, for anybody out there who doesn’t already, like if they’ve been living under a rock, where can they go and find you? Where can they follow your stuff?

Let it let us know that real quick.

Kyle Reis (46:00)
Yeah, Jake, you know how I do this. I prefer that you don’t follow me. What I would ask you to do is to respond or support me. Don’t support me. I’m not really interested. But, like Brian Walton, does an amazing job over at the Cardinal Nation. And of course, I’m on the podcast with him on Wednesdays with Walton and Reis. Support that because Brian is a true professional who does amazing work. And then just again, one last little cap tip to our friends over at Birds on the Farm, Kareem and Aiden, Redbird Farmhand, like those guys do amazing work, follow them.

And don’t waste your time on me. Jake, are you trying to end this episode? Can I ask?

Jake Wood (46:35)
I I we’re at forty-five minutes, so I’m, yeah. We’ve had a lot of listeners ask us to keep it under forty five minutes, so

Kyle Reis (46:45)
No problem. Can I just say one thing before we sign off? As we talk about the draft, I just want to say that my favorite prospect, my favorite of all the draft picks, was Dee Kennedy, the fourth-rounder out of K-State. He is my favorite. He’s a great dude, a fun dude. Of course, much has been made about the LASIK surgery of it all. But I think that I think there’s a chance that when we look back at this draft, he’s the first one to make the majors. And I just think he’s a really special talent. And I don’t know how it’s gonna work because, you know, he has contact issues, even though he makes really great swing decisions. But he’s run into some pop, and I just love the way this infielder plays the game. And I just wanted to give a cap tip to my favorite draft prospect in this draft, Dee Kennedy.

Jake Wood (47:24)
And because Kyle deflected there, I’m gonna tell you where you can all go follow him at @kyler416 on Twitter. He thought he was gonna get away with it, but I didn’t allow him to. You can also go listen to all of his great work on Wednesdays with Walton and Reis at the CardinalNation.com. You can find them on YouTube, Spotify, and all your listening platforms. For Gabe Simonds, my name is Jake Wood. Thank you so much for joining us for this episode of the Viva El Birdos podcast. Don’t forget to rate, review, and hit that subscribe button so you’re notified every Monday at 6 a.m. whenever our newest episodes are released. We’ll talk to you all next week and bring you more great Cardinals content. Have a great day, St. Louis, and let’s go Cards.

Once again, the Phillies failed to come out of the All-Star break on a high note, dropping a series to the awful Mets. They need to put that unpleasantness behind them quickly, as the schedule becomes much tougher starting with a three-game set against the defending champions. As it happens, it is also the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, so this would be a good opportunity to show that if they face off again, things might go differently.

Opposition research: Teoscar Hernandez

For many teams, having a high-profile player like Teoscar Hernandez suffer through a poor season would be a death knell for their playoff hopes. Hernandez suffered a hamstring injury in late May which cost him over a month on the Injured List. Since his return, he is batting .118 with one home run. Overall, he has an OPS of .698 which combined with his typically poor defense in the outfield has made him worth 0.1 WAR this season.

This is lining up to be Hernandez’s second straight disappointing season. He hit 25 home runs in 2025, but he also had a sub-.300 on-base percetnage. Unfortunately, that all-or-nothing trend carried into the postseason when he had a poor NLDS, except for one particular at bat.

TEOSCAR HERNÁNDEZ. pic.twitter.com/m9yiRwPmrh

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 5, 2025

Has this slowed the Dodgers down? Perhaps slightly, as they’re only 9-7 since his return. Does this preclude him from finding his stride come playoff time where he can deliver yet another big postseason hit? Not at all.

Remembering a guy who used to play for both teams

In theory, Mike Lieberthal had a solid career with the Phillies. In his 13 years with the team, he made two All-Star teams and won a Gold Glove at the catching position. It’s just unfortunate that he was cursed. His tenure with the team spanned from 1994 to 2006 which lined up exactly with a postseason drought. (The team bafflingly put him on their Wall of Fame in 2012 which kicked off another decade long playoff absence.)

I completely forgot Mike Lieberthal was on the Phillies wall of fame. That sums up the mid to late 90’s in Phillies history

— Pat Taylor (@CoachTaylor_OL) August 4, 2018

After 2006, the team wisely handed the catching job to Carlos Ruiz and Lieberthal signed with the Dodgers as a free agent. He didn’t have much left in the tank by then. He played in 38 games with a meager .540 OPS as the Dodgers unsurprisingly missed the playoffs.

Sadly, he was allowed to leave in free agency after the season, and the Dodgers made it to the playoffs in 2008. (Thankfully, that story has a happy ending for Phillies fans!)

Hating on the Dodgers

It used to be fun that the Dodgers would have great regular seasons only to repeatedly come up short in the playoffs. It’s considerably less fun now that they’ve won two straight World Series and are heavy favorites to win a third this season.

Some people think that baseball is better when there’s a villain team that seems to play by its own financial rules, like the Yankees did in the late ‘90s. But you need to villain to sometimes receive a comeuppance. If the Dodgers win again this season, and it leads to a lengthy lockout in 2027, I don’t see how that is beneficial to the sport at all.

The Dodgers have gotten nothing from their two prized free agent signings, Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz.

Yet they're 61-36.

They're also likely getting Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline.

Enjoy the season, my friends.

The lockout is looming.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 15, 2026

Additional thought about the series

The Phillies might have punted a little on the Mets series by holding out Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler. Hopefully, the additional rest agreed with Sanchez who hasn’t been at his best in recent appearances. The Phillies will likely have to get past the Dodgers to get to the World Series, and their best shot at that is if their dual aces dominate. This might be a good preview as to whether they’re up to the task.

Jared Jones struggled in his first six starts after coming back from his right elbow injury. However, since the start of July Jones has been dominant for Pittsburgh becoming one of the hotter pitchers in the rotation. 

The 24-year-old became the third Pirates pitcher over the past 70 seasons to retire at least 30 consecutive batters. The streak ended Saturday during a 7-1 victory over the Cleveland Guardians in the first game of a doubleheader. He allowed one run on three hits and struck out a season-high nine in five innings.

Jones looked good on July 2 vs the Philadelphia Phillies. In four innings pitched he allowed just two hits and struck out six batters. Then in Atlanta he threw 6 perfect innings with eight strikeouts. 

Jones struggled in his first six outings of the season after coming back from the injury, going 1-1 with a 5.76 ERA. Opponents were seeing him and hitting well, hitting .270 and homered five times in 25 innings.

It has been the opposite in his last three outings, opponents are now just 5 for 50 (.100) at the plate. The right-handed pitcher has given up only two runs in 15 innings with 23 strikeouts and three walks.

Jones starting to pitch well is a good sign that he might be coming back fully after the injury. This is looking like his impressive rookie campaign in 2024. He had 132 strikeouts which was sixth in the majors among rookies that season while he went 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA.

The Pirates starting pitching has been solid this season. Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft both making the All-Star game shows how strong they have been. If Jones can continue to pitch well, that would be a scary big threen in their rotation, especially with the Buccos in the middle of the National League Wild Card race.  

Tacoma Rainiers

Coming out of the short week with a weekend series against a talented OKC team, the Rainiers managed to best the Dodger’s affiliate by a score of 2-1, largely led by the young wunderkinds that recently joined the squad. There are going to be some very serious conversations surrounding the likes of Michael Arroyo joining the big league team before the end of the summer; he’s been slept on in part to a slower start this year, but he’s been every bit of his dominant self and looks like a strong candidate to fill in as a much-needed right handed bat.

OKC didn’t read the scouting report to not run on Lazaro Montes. pic.twitter.com/v1uTCnX9R8

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) July 19, 2026

The final totals on the weekend for Arroyo (5-14) and Montes (4-12, HR, 3 2B) underscored the pair’s strong start to PCL baseball and featured Laz showing off an underrated part of his game: his absolute howitzer of an arm.

Additionally, Brendan Donovan started his rehab work in AAA. Though going hitless, he seems to be an imminent addition that should breathe some life into a rather tepid lineup at present.

Arkansas Travelers

Having been down their pair of aces for the past two weeks thanks to the Future’s Game and down their star tandem that’s tearing up Triple-A, the Travs lineup will be getting a little bit of star power it’s so desperately been looking for. Felnin Celesten, top Mariner prospect and superstar shortstop, got the call up to Double-A and will be manning the six for Arkansas to close out the year. It’s been a tremendous bounceback year for Celesten; after a tumultuous 2025 that lacked much offensive output at all, Celesten has had a monster 2026 that’s put him right back to his “Top 100” status leaguewide. Best of luck, Felnin!

Here we go. pic.twitter.com/IifY287iKu

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) July 20, 2026

Less fortunate for the Travs, however, were their results on the field. The Travelers got swept by a really poor Wichita team and could not quiet a generally uninspiring offense. The right-side duo of Hunter Fitz-Gerald and Charlie Pagliarini carried their weight, but it was a tough weekend on large.

Everett AquaSox

It was an offensive bonanza for Everett this weekend, with the Frogs taking a 2-1 series victory on the back of 37 runs over three games. Punctuated by Sunday’s 21-3 shellacking of cross-state rival Spokane, the AquaSox managed this kind of run production outside of their smaller home ballpark, instead doing it on the road in the much larger Avista Stadium. If this offense is able to maintain a level anywhere near this (with some recent SEC draftees likely on the way), this is sure to be one exciting summer of Everett baseball.

Luke Stevenson crushes a GRAND SLAM! It’s 19-3 in the 7th. pic.twitter.com/tLsYdaKuie

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) July 19, 2026

There’s a lot of cool moments to pick from with so much offense going on, but Luke Stevenson’s grand slam in the rubber match was a really cool sight to see. He had been struggling quite a bit in months past, but he seems to have gotten a bit more aggressive at the plate in the month of July, and it’s paid off in a major way. A hot finish to the season would do wonders in reestablishing people’s confidence in him long-term.

Not to be overlooked, catching partner Josh Caron’s 2026 season has truly been a revelation. Now with an OPS of .934, Caron’s run excellent splits against both lefties and righties, and he’s not been a product of an advantageous home ballpark, either; Caron’s 1.014 road OPS is actually considerably higher than his home mark, sparking confidence his breakout has some legitimate backing. There’s still a lot of whiff in his profile, but a backup catching role with some pop is very much in the cards.

Inland Empire 66ers

The 66ers dropped the weekend series by a score of 2-1, showing their lack of depth on both sides of the ball all weekend. This team desperately needs some of the many Power Four sluggers the M’s recently drafted to join this lineup; the lack of arms is their biggest issue at present, but if they can manage to pull off the “Cal League Special” and out hit their pitching, maybe they can get things back into the “fun to watch” column with the win column proving elusive all year.

Doubles machine Aiden Taurek drives in 2 on his 31st double. pic.twitter.com/EtKngpB9LO

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) July 19, 2026

Despite the team’s down weekend, Aiden Taurek continues to be a bright spot for this Modesto offense. Last year’s 13th rounder out of Saint Mary’s, Taurek produced seven hits across the three games and knocked his 31st double of the year, a figure that leads minor league baseball by a wide margin. Taurek’s a weak-side corner outfield profile and will have to hit his way to the bigs, but with a bit of speed on the bases and innate feel for the barrel, Taurek could be next in a long line of late-round finds identified by Scott Hunter and Co.

ACL Mariners

Heading into their last week of play, the Baby M’s stand in first within their division and lead the Royals’ team by a game with three to play. The two squads will face off on Wednesday in what will essentially decide this year’s winner, though with no stream, we’ll have to rely on box score watching to provide the drama that will assuredly unfold on the backfields of Arizona.

Whether Nick Becker and Yorger Bautista end up making their way to the California League this season is yet to be seen, but it’s far less of a formality than it’s been for top prospects in year’s past. With some legitimate troubles that need to be sorted out both at the plate and in the field, it would not be much of a surprise to see the pair remain in Arizona and get more direct instruction at the instructional complex. If anything, despite worse overall numbers, Bautista might actually have a better chance at getting the promotion than Becker; whiff problems are unlikely to magically sort themselves out, and unfortunately for Becker, he’s struggled with just that.

DSL Mariners

The DSL team remains a major bright spot in the system. With countless producers up and down the lineup and a handful of interesting pitching prospects, next year’s ACL team is slated to be absolutely stacked. Early returns of this next wave of young talent are looking incredibly promising, and there’s an argument to be made that the tandem of Gregory Pio and Juan Rijo need to be moved up prospect boards significantly.

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Let's kick this week off on a high note!

Monday is filled with pitching props featuring Kyle Freeland, Jameson Taillon, and Payton Tolle, which give us plenty of high-value targets on tonight's betting card.

Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on July 20.

Best MLB player props today

Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 earned runs (-108)

Typically, an Over 3.5 runs team total would make me a little nervous, unless it was a team like the Dodgers, but the Washington Nationals are a different story.

Washington gets after early runs, ranking second in first five runs scored while averaging Over three runs through the first five innings.

They draw Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has been awful all season. The veteran left-hander carries one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate and now has to face a Nationals lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and one strong-rated hitter based on the current season ratings at Batters-Box.

At home this season, Freeland owns a 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate.

The Nationals should have a field day in Coors.

I would play this down to -110 at most. 

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, NATS

Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs (-135)

It is hard for me to overlook the data here, as Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon draws six elite-rated Detroit Tigers bats while carrying one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day over at Batters-Box.

Taillon has struggled all season long, posting a 7.77 ERA, 6.92 xERA, and 1.64 WHIP. Over his last five starts, he has allowed a 42.67% hard-hit rate and a 16% barrel rate.

The Tigers have been a little cold offensively over their last six games, but I will always lean toward trusting the advanced data and betting on bad pitching being exposed over bad offense.

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, which could provide some extra help tonight. I know this prop is juicy, so I would not pay much more than the current price.

If the first five team total is available at a better number, I would rather go that route.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, DSN

Payton Tolle Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)

I may just be drinking the "Payton Tolle is awesome" juice, but I absolutely love him to shove against the Baltimore Orioles this evening.

Sure, Baltimore’s offense has been heating up over the last few days, but its strikeout rate has still been hovering around 30%. The O's also have not fared well against southpaws this season, posting a 26% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Over their last 60 at-bats vs. lefties, seven Orioles hitters have posted at least a 21.7% strikeout rate, six are at 25.4% or higher, and three are at least 31%.

There are plenty of strikeouts available in this lineup.

Meanwhile, Tolle has maintained a 30% strikeout rate both at home and over his last three starts.

At +125 for seven strikeouts, I think we are getting excellent value and should be in a great position to cash.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, MASN

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

As a whole, despite taking two out of three in one of the toughest places to visit, Yankee Stadium, the Dodgers offense didn’t have the best of times, twice failing to even crack three runs in a game. Well, the post-All-Star break journey doesn’t get any easier with a stop in Philly that begins with a matchup against the best left-handed pitcher in the National League, Cristopher Sánchez.

This particular task gets much more daunting when you account for Sánchez’s drastic splits this season. The Phillies’ ace will host the Dodgers with as many wins at home (7) as he has earned runs (7). While the left-hander is running a near 5.00 ERA on the road, raised significantly after a horrible start against the Royals a couple of weeks ago, Sánchez has a sub-1.00 ERA in a larger sample in front of his home crowd. One of the things that makes facing Sánchez even more difficult is that even when you think you have him, capitalizing on that opportunity is an entirely separate challenge. Take his last start, for instance: the Tigers had 10 hits against the Phillies ace, and yet multiple double plays on too many ground balls bullied them into scoring just two runs in a 4-2 defeat.

Until Blake Snell is back—with Shohei Ohtani taking a break from pitching for an undetermined period to fully recover his knee—the Dodgers will need a bit more from the likes of Emmet Sheehan, who, in turn, needs a bit more from the offense that has let him down in recent starts. Since the start of June, the Dodgers have won only one of Sheehan’s seven starts, even though the young right-hander has allowed more than three runs just once in this period.

Monday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Phillies
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
• Start time: 4:10 p.m. PT
• TV: ESPN
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)