The Yankees finished the regular season tied for the best record in the American League. But they didn’t hold the tiebreaker that decided the AL East title, so their initial October reward is…
A best-of-three Wild Card Series against a team that clobbered them for much of the season. Oh, and it’s their bitter rivals, the Boston Red Sox, the same franchise that authored the stunning 2004 ALCS comeback against the Yanks and has beaten them in the two playoff meetings since then, too.
For baseball fans, it’s a spicy matchup, thick with subplots and charged history. For the Yankees? Potentially dangerous. And not just because of whatever lingering karma there might be from those previous playoff losses.
Boston was 9-4 against the Yankees this season, outscoring them, 66-51. In fairness, the Yankees won the last series between the teams, at Fenway Park in mid-September. But Boston’s top two starters, Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello, were a combined 5-1 against the Yanks and figure to start the first two games. So a series full of potential pinstriped pitfalls begins with two rugged assignments.
Should be a fun few days that adds lore to a cherished baseball rivalry. Your pulse racing yet?
WHAT THE YANKEES HAVE GOING FOR THEM
Let’s address the 6-7, 282-pound slugger in the room first: At some point, Aaron Judge will put up October numbers more like his regular season rampages, right? If it starts in this series, against this team, an already-all-time Yankee will only add to his mighty rep.
Judge, who finished on a heater, had yet another historic regular season, winning his first batting title and smashing 53 home runs. He’s only the third player ever to have a 50-homer season while leading his league in hitting, joining Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle, and only the fifth since 1961 to lead MLB in average, on-base percentage, and slugging in a single season. The others are George Brett, Larry Walker, Barry Bonds, and Miguel Cabrera.
Crazy, right? Of course, now is when more attention will be paid to Judge’s postseason numbers – a .205 average with a .768 OPS, well off his career marks. He has 16 homers in 58 games (a 44-homer pace over 162 games), but Yankee fans want more.
Judge was the main cog in the best offense in baseball this season, one that re-tooled after Juan Soto departed, and Yankee slugging overcame pockmarks in other departments. They led MLB in runs, hit the second-most homers in team history (274), and even ranked eighth in stolen bases. Stealth Bombers?
They can send hitters in waves at opponents, including Giancarlo Stanton, who thrives in October. Jazz Chisholm Jr. had a 30-30 season. Cody Bellinger soared in the Bronx. Ben Rice emerged as an exit-velocity king. Only Judge hit more homers than slugging surprise Trent Grisham (34).
The Yanks also have their own formidable 1-2 rotation punch in Max Fried (MLB-best 19 wins and a 2.86 ERA) and Carlos Rodón, who allowed just 6.1 hits-per-nine innings, tops in the AL. Impressive rookie Cam Schlittler, who barely looks like he’s throwing hard, even as he hits 99 miles-per-hour on the radar gun, figures as their third starter. Schlittler had a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts. Overall, the Yanks were fourth in MLB in starter ERA (3.61).
WHAT THE RED SOX HAVE GOING FOR THEM
Crochet, a dazzling lefty, is at least in the conversation about the best pitcher in baseball after he went 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA, led the AL in innings (205.1) and all of MLB in strikeouts (255). The vaunted Yankee offense batted .200 against him with a .601 OPS, and he had 39 strikeouts and only four walks in 27.1 innings against them. Bello was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA against the Yankees.
That starter combo could be deadly in such a short series, especially when it’s backed by an elite bullpen. The Red Sox had the second-lowest relief ERA in baseball (3.61), led by former Yankee closer Aroldis Chapman. Chapman had an absurd season, notching a 1.17 ERA, holding hitters to a .132 average and striking out 85 in 61.1 innings.
No Roman Anthony hurts the offense, but the Sox still scored the seventh-most runs, even without any spectacular individual seasons. With the Yanks starting lefties in the first two games, platoon guys such as Romy Gonzalez (.978 OPS, seven homers against lefties) and Rob Refsnyder (.959, seven homers) might be factors.
Should mojo count here? The Sox were 5-2 at Yankee Stadium. The Yanks looked bad against them in several of those nine Boston wins. Whatever psychological advantages the Yanks once seemed to hold over the Sox back in the lopsided days of yore when the rivalry was more like a “rivalry” are long gone. Whatever you believe about that sort of thing.
THE YANKEES WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…
Judge slugs. It’s not all on him, but it kinda is, you know? He’s due. It won’t be easy, though. He’s got two career homers off Crochet, but he’s 3-for-15 lifetime against the lefty with 11 strikeouts.
The Yankees were good at scoring early, slugging an MLB-record 50 homers in the first inning, and that could be huge in this series. They tallied in the opening frame 65 times during the regular season and were 46-19 (.708) in those games. If they continue to hit home runs in this series, regardless of inning, they will be difficult to beat.
Parts of the Yankee summer were marred by sloppy play, but they cleaned up some of that during their MLB-best 34-14 run to close the season. Bad fundies are part of the bad aftertaste from last year’s World Series thud, so avoiding erratic defense now is paramount.
Finally, the Yanks have the worst bullpen ERA of any playoff team (4.37, ranked 23rd in MLB). David Bednar has been the best of the relievers added during the deadline makeover, but the bullpen looms as a potential trouble spot.
THE RED SOX WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…
They get a couple of starting pitching outings that allow them to go starter to setup man (Garrett Whitlock) to Chapman. Whitlock, whom the Sox plucked from the, ahem, Yankees in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, has been terrific (2.25 ERA).
Defense has been a red (Sox) flag all season. Boston had the most errors in MLB. Does that impact the series?
And how does Alex Bregman, a former member of another October Yankee nemesis – the Astros – factor in? He was on three Houston clubs that eliminated the Yanks and had a .924 OPS against them this year, his first season in Boston. Tuesday will be his 100th career postseason game. Seems unlikely he’s not deeply involved in this.
PREDICTION
Yanks in three.
Sure, Boston dominated the season series. Was that timing or something deeper? We’re banking on timing and that Judge has a big series, Stanton has his usual fall power surge, Yankee starters thrive and the club limits its mistakes.
Easy, right? We kid.
Nothing is easy when it comes to Yankees-Sox.