Category: Baseball

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A day filled with baseball is the perfect day, and I have MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate. 

Let's dive right into my latest MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5.

MLB moneyline picks for August 5

Matchup	Pick
Blue Jays vs Astros	-174
Dodgers vs Cubs	+113
Giants vs Rangers	+160
Rays vs Rockies	-153
Angels vs Orioles	+113
Athletics vs Reds	+135
Nationals vs Phillies	+170
Mets vs Guardians	-100
Cardinals vs Yankees	+144
White Sox vs Red Sox	+122
Marlins vs Braves	+117
Twins vs Royals	-113
Pirates vs Brewers	-122
Padres vs Diamondbacks	-115
Tigers vs Mariners	+141

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of August 5.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 5

Blue Jays vs Astros: Astros (-174)

Astros win probability: 64%

Jameson Taillon, the gift that keeps on giving. Welcome to the Blue Jays, my friend. Now I get to fade you.

Taillon owns a 5.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season, and now he draws one of the hottest lineups in baseball. I don't expect this outing to go very smoothly.

On the other side, Hunter Brown has been sharp over his last three starts, posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Dodgers vs Cubs: Dodgers (+113)

Dodgers win probability: 47%

I think we can all agree seeing the Dodgers get swept in back-to-back series would be marvelous. But when was the last time we were able to grab the Dodgers at plus money?

If the offense can force Shota Imanaga out early to get to that horrible bullpen, I think they can come out on top. 

Plus, I will gladly take the Monstars of L.A. at plus money to avoid their sixth straight loss.

Giants vs Rangers: Giants (+160)

Giants win probability: 38%

I'm not paying -163 for a Rangers lineup that's gone cold over the last week.

On top of that, this could be Cody Bradford's first start since September 2024. That's enough for me to side with the underdog here.

Rays vs Rockies: Rays (-153)

Rays win probability: 60%

It'll be interesting to see how the Rockies respond after last night's blown lead, but I don't see them bouncing back with Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound.

The veteran right-hander owns a solid 2.95 ERA over his last three starts, but his underlying metrics tell a different story. He carries a 6.69 expected ERA during that stretch.

On the other side, All-Star righty Nick Martinez gets the ball for Tampa Bay. He's been outstanding on the road this season, posting a 2.01 ERA away from home.

Both offenses have been heating up, but only one of these starters is worth trusting.

Angels vs Orioles: Angels (+115)

Angels win probability: 46%

Two lifeless offenses, both sporting a sub-60 wRC+ over their last six games. Who do you take?

When in doubt, take the dog.

Luckily for us, Reid Detmers gets the ball for the Angels tonight, and he's been on a tear, posting a 1.65 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his last three starts.

On the other side, Trevor Rogers has turned things around after a shaky first half, but I still think Detmers is the better arm in this matchup.

Athletics vs Reds: Athletics (+133)

Athletics win probability: 43%

When country singer Rhett Lowder is on the bump, I want to fade the daylights out of him. Especially when he's carrying an 8.10 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Jacob Lopez has been dealing, posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP during that same span. Plus, he has held a 27% strikeout rate across his last five starts, and the Reds have a 29.5% strikeout rate over their last 12 games. 

Nationals vs Phillies: Nationals (+170)

Nationals win probability: 37%

I'm not paying -174 to back Andrew Painter, who owns a 9.00 ERA, 5.54 xERA, and 1.69 WHIP over his last three starts.

On the other side, Jake Irvin has been the better pitcher lately, posting a 3.69 xERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three outings.

The Phillies' offense has been solid over its last six games, but the Nationals are always capable of erupting at any moment.

Don't lay the juice. Take the dog.

Mets vs Guardians: Mets (+100)

Mets win probability: 50%

Christian Scott has been far too good over his last five starts for me to even consider backing Tanner Bibee.

The Mets right-hander owns a 2.59 ERA, 2.28 xERA, and 1.07 WHIP during that span. Bibee has been solid himself, but he still carries a 4.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his last five outings.

Neither offense has been playing well lately, but the Mets have been generating far more hard contact than the Guardians, which makes me believe they're due to break out.

Across their last 21 games, New York owns a 41.4% hard-hit rate.

Cardinals vs Yankees: Cardinals (+144)

Cardinals win probability: 41%

Will Warren being a -147 favorite is wild to me.

The Yankees RHP owns a 6.05 ERA, 5.70 xERA, and 1.50 WHIP over his last five outings. During that stretch, he's also allowed nearly a 57% hard hit rate to opposing hitters.

The Cardinals counter with Andre Pallante, who owns a 2.66 road ERA this season while limiting hard contact.

St. Louis has also been swinging the bat much better than New York over the last week, and at +144, I have to back the Cardinals against Warren.

White Sox vs Red Sox: White Sox (+122)

White Sox win probability: 45%

My Sonny Gray AL Cy Young ticket has officially been shredded, and I want no part of backing the Red Sox after they hung 14 runs on the board last night.

Instead, I'll be backing Sean Burke and the Chicago White Sox. Chicago's offense has cooled off a bit, but I expect Boston to come back down to earth after last night's explosion.

Burke has been absolutely nails over his last five outings, posting a 1.14 ERA, 2.20 xERA, and 0.76 WHIP.

Marlins vs Braves: Marlins (+117)

Marlins win probability: 46%

I think this is a fantastic spot for the Marlins with Eury Pérez on the mound tonight. Over his last five starts, he's posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.

Miami's offense is also starting to turn the corner, cutting down on the strikeouts while posting a walk rate of nearly 9% over its last six games.

On the other side, Bryce Elder owns a 5.50 xERA over his last five starts, and I think he gets exposed tonight. He's also allowed a 50% hard-hit rate over his last three outings.

Twins vs Royals: Royals (-113)

Royals win probability: 48%

Welcome to the Twins, Mr. Dean Kremer. Now we fade you in your debut.

The newly acquired right-hander has been horrendous lately, posting a 10.29 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. On the other side, southpaw Noah Cameron has taken a step forward, recording a 3.15 ERA, 2.91 xERA, and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts.

Kansas City's offense has also been swinging the bat well over its last six games, while the Twins have gone ice cold, posting an 82 wRC+, .287 wOBA, and .651 OPS.

Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers (-122)

Brewers win probability: 55%

When was the last time Paul Skenes got run support? 

Give me the Brew Crew here! Especially with Kyle Harrison's underlying metrics saying he should be a lot better than he has been. In his last five starts, the left-hander has a 3.75 ERA, but a 2.16 xERA and 0.88 WHIP. 

Neither offense has been impressive, but the Brewers are easily the far more complete team, and at -122, I will be happy to pay the juice.

Padres vs Diamondbacks: Padres (-115)

Padres win probability: 54%

At the time of this writeup, the Padres have yet to announce a starting pitcher. That doesn't concern me when the Diamondbacks are sending Mitch Bratt to the mound.

Bratt owns a 5.23 ERA and 1.84 WHIP this season, while Arizona's offense has gone cold, producing minimal hard contact and a .679 OPS over its last six games.

Meanwhile, San Diego has posted a 113 wRC+, .328 wOBA, and a 41.8% hard hit rate over the last week.

At just -115, I'll happily fade another Diamondbacks starter.

Tigers vs Mariners: Tigers (+141)

Tigers win probability: 42%

It's Tigers or nothing for me. This team is way too hot to fade right now, and at +141 against Bryan Woo, who's been struggling, give me the dog.

For those unaware, the Tigers have posted a 147 wRC+, .379 wOBA, and .875 OPS over their last 12 games. On the mound, Ty Madden has been on a tear this season, recording a 2.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

As we’ve written aboutextensively over the past few days, the Mariners didn’t make splashy moves this trade deadline, but they did make moves to address their biggest weaknesses in the bullpen and right-handed hitting outfield, even if those returns might not move the needle for fans. Both Seranthony Dominguez, the reliever acquired in the Luis Castillo trade, and Taylor Ward, acquired in the Alex Hoppe trade, are in the midst of down seasons. Nick has dug into why Seranthony Dominguez might be a candidate to rebound in Seattle, a piece I strongly recommend you take a look at if you haven’t yet (almost as strongly as I’d recommend not looking at what he did in his Mariners debut). Today I’d like to do the same for Taylor Ward (with the similar caveat about not looking at his first game as a Mariner).

Jerry Dipoto, at least, is certainly happy to have acquired Ward:

“We feel like with Taylor Ward, we got at least—if not the best right-hand bat that moved at this deadline, certainly on the short list of the best right-hand bats,” said Dipoto, pointing to Ward’s solid performance for over six years in the league, elite on-base skills, and the way he fits the team. “Obviously, an everyday player who can handle both, but he’s particularly good against lefties.” (Ward has historically crushed lefties, with a 130 wRC+)

Mariners fans are familiar with Ward as a Los Angeles Angel, where he was famously the last first-round pick of Jerry Dipoto’s GM tenure before Dipoto skipped town for Seattle. But don’t let the first-round pedigree fool you: Ward, who was college teammates with Aaron Judge at Fresno State, is a lifelong grinder. Barely inside MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 when the Angels took him at 26 with an underslot deal, Ward was seen as a surprising selection by many in the industry, projecting him as a potential backup catcher, a defense-first prospect with a cannon for an arm, although he drew praise for his (Dipoto catnip alert) advanced plate discipline and approach. He spent his summers in both the prestigious Cape Cod League and the less-prestigious Alaska Baseball League, an experience he calls “one of the coolest things I’ve done,” describing waking up at 1 AM to go work out at the field.

Unsatisfied with his performance in High-A in the 2016-17 seasons, which was acceptable but not exemplary, Ward linked up with an old teammate from Fresno State, Trent Woodward, a minor-leaguer with the Astros, who told Ward about all these newfangled hitting metrics the Astros were using like attack angle and bat path ellipses, as well as technology like TrackMan, BlastMotion, and K-Vests. Ward, an eager student, dove into swing mechanics, refining his swing and roaring into the 2018 season and the upper minors, posting a 161 wRC+ for the season but failing to appear on any Top 100 lists.

A move to right field, where his cannon arm could continue to play without the mental load of catching, allowed Ward to focus solely on offense, and by 2022 he was an established regular for the Angels. While he continued to take his walks, he also became a little more willing to swing, trading a modest uptick in his strikeout rate – still below league average – for more power. Outside of 2023, when he missed time with a gruesome facial fracture after crashing into the away scoreboard at the broken-down haunted ride attraction currently known as Daikin Park, Ward has hit 20+ homers every season until running into another haunted house, this time righty-power-killing Oriole Park, where just one (1) of his seven (7) home runs this year has been hit.

Ward countered that suck on his right-handed power by dialing his selectivity at the plate up even further, testing the bounds of how close to a near-equal K/BB rate an everyday player can run. He leads the AL in walks, with 87, and is doing it while striking out about 20% of the time. He’s made himself into a valuable player, an OBP king, but at the cost of sacrificing his power.

But while he’s not been pulling the ball in the air for power, Ward has been spraying the ball around more. On the left, his historic heat map; on the right, 2026. His flyball rate has dropped while his line drive rate has increased and he’s hitting the ball up the middle more than ever. In order to do this, he’s flattened out his swing a ton, going from a 9° attack angle, just under the MLB average of 10°, to a 6° attack angle.

All of that sounds like something that would be in harmony with the Mariners’ current hitting coaches, who preach a similar up-the-middle approach.

“I think getting into a different ballpark situation, or back to the (AL) West where you know he’s in familiar environments [could help],” said Dipoto. “I don’t know that there’s a tougher place for a right-hand power hitter to go hit right now than Baltimore since they made their stadium change in left field, but I’ll give Taylor a ton of credit. He took what was already a skill and turned it into an elite skill, and he found a way to contribute on an equal level to what he was doing in Anaheim in a very different way. And I’ll take either one of those guys. I’ll take the 36 homer guy or the 380 on base guy. They’re they’re both good to me.

Going from Oriole Park to T-Mobile might not be the boon Dipoto is painting it as here – Oriole Park ranks right at the middle of the pack for right-handed power hitters for homers, fifth best for xwOBAcon, while T-Mobile is in the bottom third of the league for righty homers, 26th for xwOBAcon – but the good news is Ward doesn’t need to be his lift-and-separate self of yore on this roster. Despite what we know about how much T-Mobile doesn’t reward hitters for good quality contact, contact is contact, and the Mariners have enough power on their roster – in the forms of Dom Canzone, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodríguez, and the version of Cal Raleigh that hasn’t been conked over the head by a very large flowerpot, plus the sneaky power source that is Cole Young – that all Ward needs to do is get on base, something the 2026 Mariners have treated like they’ve been told they need to solve the Yang-Mills theory gap first before they can set foot upon pillow, and wait to get driven in by one of the boppers.

For his part, Ward says he likes the experience of hitting at T-Mobile, even as he saw limited success here as a visitor.

“I think one big thing is, I’m just happy not to have to face this staff anymore,” Ward joked. “Definitely top-tier in baseball.

But yeah, I like it here. I like playing outfield here. I like the batter’s eye, as well, I like the dark feel that it has here. Definitely looking forward to playing here.”

Ward also said he’s aware he’s in a down year for power, something he’s hoping to re-establish with his new team, as he’s looking forward to getting into conversations with the Mariners hitting staff.

“Just continuing to learn the league and how they pitch me,” said Ward, who said the thing he wants fans to know about him is that he’s a hard worker. “I do my own homework and game planning against them, so hopefully I’ll be able to come in and tap in to some power I’ve been missing, but also keep the walks going, keep the on-base going. But it’s been interesting year for sure. Hoping I can fill in some gaps as we get close to the end here.”

That’s not all Ward is hoping for: the long-time Angel has never been to the playoffs, and is hoping for his first shot at post-season play with the Mariners.

“That would be huge. Obviously, I haven’t been to the playoffs in my career, and that’s one thing I want to do. That’s what every player wants to do, win a world championship. So that’s my goal.”

Dipoto said the plan with Ward is to give him time to re-familiarize him with playing right field, since he hasn’t played it regularly in a couple of seasons, so the team will give him some time to practice getting accustomed to the angles in T-Mobile Park while giving him DH days, but the eventual plan is for him to play the majority of right field, while Canzone, who is comfortable with DHing and less comfortable with his nagging hamstrings, will eventually be the primary DH.

For Dipoto, he’s finally gotten his man after years of trying.

“We have tried to acquire Taylor Ward for years, but you know, at his original location, it was an impossibility.”

“I laughingly said to him yesterday, just as I always thought, my second conversation with Taylor Ward was going to be welcoming him as a 32-year-old corner outfielder, because the last time I talked to him, he was a 21-year-old prospective catcher.

“It’s cool to have a full circle deal,” laughed Ward. “I’m just really excited about it.”

Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees’ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the Trade Deadline behind us, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.

First Place: Atlanta Braves (68-45)

Top Position Player: Matt Olson (3.4 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Chris Sale (3.9 fWAR)

The Braves have continued to be the big dog in the NL East throughout 2026 following an out-of-character losing year last season. They are one of the best teams in baseball, but they’re not perfect. After going 40-20 through the first two and a half months of the season, their June was suboptimal, going 9-14 before bouncing back in July, where they currently sit at 16-11. Now, post-trade deadline, they made some moves to help the depth on their major league roster, but it still felt like a bit of a disappointment. They added right-hander Tyler Mahle for their starting rotation, outfielder Lane Thomas, and left-handed reliever Brent Suter, but will that be enough to win it all down the stretch?

The good news is position players like Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, and Ronald Acuña Jr. (who continues to have injury issues but is back in the lineup as of now), along with another dominant season from Chris Sale, have put them in a great position moving forward. Olson has been the backbone of the group, now playing in his 895th consecutive game—setting a new Atlanta record and tying Stan Musial for eighth all-time—while slashing .266/.342/.541 with 31 home runs and holding a 137 wRC+ at age 32. He has been a model of consistency that the group desperately needed.

While they still have some flaws, and Braves fans weren’t happy with losing out on a more bona fide starting pitcher—there had briefly been Tarik Skubal rumors and Jacob deGrom reportedly quashed the possibility of a trade from Texas on deadline day—the squad is back to looking like one that had the best record in baseball early in the season and should contend for a World Series.

Second Place: Philadelphia Phillies (61-53)

Top Position Player: Kyle Schwarber (2.4 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez (4.6 fWAR)

After Atlanta, the picture of the NL East comes into clearer focus, starting with the Philadelphia Phillies. They are a game up in the NL’s second Wild Card position. To give them a better chance at upping their position in the standings, front office heads Dave Dombrowski and Preston Mattingly acquired Luis Arráez from the San Francisco Giants, along with a couple of other bullpen reinforcements. Still, there weren’t any larger moves made despite comments from Bryce Harper saying, “I think we need some help.

Like the Braves, some speculated a move for the starting rotation, given that Aaron Nola has been a shell of himself, currently sporting a 5.55 ERA and a 3-9 record. Outside of him and the ever-shuffling No. 5 spot, the rotation has been very solid, with three pitchers over a 3.0 fWAR, including Cy Young contender Cristopher Sánchez, who is sporting a 4.6 fWAR.

The lineup has been led by Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Harper, who have all registered over 2.0 fWAR, with Schwarber and Harper leading the way in home runs with 33 and 24. But if the Phillies really want a crack at succeeding in the postseason, it’s going to take a lot more from position players such as Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh, J.T. Realmuto, and especially Alec Bohm, to make an impact. The addition of Arraez certainly helps the lineup (though it’s an odd fit on defense, with Harper moving back to right field in the shuffle), but it’s going to take much more from within to keep the Phillies in contention.

Third Place: Miami Marlins (58-56)

Top Position Player: Otto Lopez (4.6 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (2.7 fWAR)

The Marlins are just behind the Phillies in the NL East , and they’re two games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot in the National League playoff race after a loss to the Braves last night. At the deadline howver, they moved catcher Liam Hicks to the Tampa Bay Rays, starting pitcher Braxton Garrett to the Chicago Cubs, and reliever Lake Bachar to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Miami has been an interesting team this year, with players who have been some of the best not just in the NL but in all of MLB. Otto Lopez sits alone in fifth in fWAR, and familiar ace Sandy Alcantara sits in a tie for 19th in pitching fWAR. However, their road record that is their undoing this season. They have a 34-23 record at loanDepot Park, but when they walk out of a visitors clubhouse, they often walk back into that same clubhouse with a loss, sporting a 24-33 road record thus far.

It hasn’t been a bad season for the Marlins in the slightest, as they’re trying to improve their record from the previous season once more — staying above .500 would do just that. They have plenty of pieces that can continue to help build the franchise, and they at least resisted dealing Lopez, Alcantara, or Xavier Edwards. For right now, though, it’s about chasing that Wild Card spot and continuing to play solid baseball and win the games they need to.

Fourth Place: Washington Nationals (55-59)

Top Position Player: James Wood (4.2 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Cade Cavalli (2.5 fWAR)

The Nationals are a team that has seen breakout seasons from those they were counting on, but they still aren’t fully there yet. Sitting 5.5 games back of the last NL Wild Card spot, it would take a miracle for them to reach the postseason. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have any bright spots. James Wood and CJ Abrams are having excellent seasons. However, due to long-shot playoff odds, they still decided to send away players, including ace Foster Griffin to Cleveland and masher Luis García Jr. to the Yankees for a quartet of pitchers. The latter made his impact early on in a pinstriped uniform.

The Nationals even have some decent looks in the starting rotation, with Cade Cavalli doing yeoman’s work and leading the entire major leagues in starts. Still, there needs to be serious reinforcements on that side of the coin to make Washington even a Wild Card contender. As of now, they have somewhat of a formula, but with a deadline where the new leader of the front office, Paul Toboni, sold more than he bought, it still feels as if there’s a long rest-of-the-season and future for the franchise.

Last Place: New York Mets (47-66)

Top Position Player: Juan Soto (2.8 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Nolan McLean (2.6 fWAR)

The Mets have been extremely disappointing this season, and that still feels like an understatement. They traded away eight players at the deadline, including former Yankees Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver to the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, respectively, and received 12 different prospect across their several deals. They also traded away their big offseason addition on the mound, Freddy Peralta, to the Tampa Bay Rays (his ugly 2026 only continued last night at Coors Field). After an 83-79 record last year and a run to Game 6 of the NLCS in 2024, it has been one heck of a downswing.

The two players who lead the team in fWAR are really the only two bright spots. Soto has been himself, hitting to the tune of a 159 wRC+ with an OBP over the .400 mark once again. But he’s on the IL right now and doesn’t have much help anyway, and neither does the young hurler Nolan McLean, who at 24 years old has pitched to an excellent 3.29 ERA through 22 starts and 125.2 innings pitched. Francisco Lindor has been underwhelming and hurt, and everyone else has been either mediocre or bad as well. The same goes for the pitching staff. There’s at least some hope for youngsters A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge in the outfield, if you want to find it.

The 2026 season has been a complete wash due to injuries and downright poor performance throughout the Mets organization. For the team’s front office and fans, their minds are already on 2027 and beyond.

While Mets right-hander Kodai Senga's upside as a starting pitcher remains tantalizing, it is difficult to envision a scenario where New York enters the 2027 season with him seriously in the mix for a spot in the rotation -- not with New York needing more certainty in a season where they'll look to break their two-year streak of the rotation wrecking their hopes. 

Following his tremendous rookie campaign in 2023 (2.98 ERA, 10.9 strikeouts per nine) and strong performance in 2025 before his hamstring injury (3.02 ERA, 10.4 strikeouts per nine), the last calendar year of Senga the starter has been a disaster.

After returning from his injury last season, Senga had a 5.90 ERA (5.76 FIP) in 39.2 innings over nine starts. Those struggles led to him accepting an assignment to Triple-A Syracuse in September to work things out, but Senga never got to a point where he was comfortable returning to the majors. 

This season, things took a bad turn in early April. Following two solid starts to begin the year, Senga became close to unpitchable. Over his first seven starts, he compiled a 10.08 ERA (7.47 FIP) while completing five innings just twice. 

Since June 28, Senga has worked almost exclusively in relief (he made one emergency start on July 31 in place of the soon-to-be-traded Freddy Peralta), with the Mets trying to determine his specific bullpen role. On Tuesday night against the Guardians in Cleveland, that role came into focus. 

With the bullpen mostly gutted after the trades of Luke Weaver, Huascar Brazoban, Brooks Raley, and A.J. Minter, the Mets now have what they say is a clear runway to use Senga as a high-leverage option.

"I want to see him as a leverage reliever," interim manager Andy Green said before Tuesday's game. "See him in a one-inning burst. We talked about it, the construction of our 'pen did not allow it when we had Minter and Brazo, and Weaver and Raley. It does now. We’re aware with his traditional workload as well, I don’t expect him to pitch three out of four at this time. I do think that his right arm has 100 mph and a nasty forkball. That profile plays for a late-inning reliever."

Along with Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, and -- to a lesser extent -- Sean Manaea (who has turned things around lately), the Mets will likely enter next season with a handful of high-paid players whose roles and future on the team could be up in the air. Senga will be entering the final season of his contract, owed $15 million.

While the future doesn't appear rosy for Polanco (injury issues, an OPS+ of 9) or Semien (.614 OPS as his offensive production continues to trend down), there's reason to believe Senga can excel in a late-inning relief role, which could make him an asset for 2027.

A potential deciding factor when it comes to if this will work is whether Senga -- who is meticulous when it comes to his routines and mechanics -- can adjust to a role where he is thrust into action at a moment's notice and asked to pitch more than he ever has in his career. But if he buys in and can make the adjustment, there's reason for hope. 

In the only sample we have so far, which was on Tuesday night, Senga performed well while relying mainly on the two-pitch mix Green mentioned.

Of the 18 pitches Senga threw in his scoreless ninth inning to close out New York's victory (one walk was the only blemish), 13 were four-seam fastballs and two were forkballs. Senga also mixed in two cutters and one sinker.

Senga's fastball velocity also ticked up.

His four-seamer, which has averaged 96.2 mph this season, averaged 97.3 mph on Tuesday and topped out at 98.8 mph.

While Senga's four-seamer -- his most-used offering -- hasn't played up this season, with opposing hitters slugging .569 against it, the pitch was a major weapon for him during his rookie season and can still be a weapon.

In 2023, Senga's four-seamer graded out among the best pitches in baseball -- in the 98th percentile, via Baseball Savant. That season, it averaged 95.7 mph, right around where it's averaged this season. So it stands to reason that if Senga can again harness his four-seamer, he'll be in strong shape.

As far as Senga's forkball, it remains one of the most dastardly pitches in baseball.

The fork has been Senga's second-most used pitch this year (he's thrown it 24.2 percent of the time), with opposing batters hitting just .109 with a .152 slugging percentage and zero home runs against it. And the xSLG against the offering (.163) hammers home that the success of the fork is no fluke.

Meanwhile, Senga's other pitches have not fared well. Batters are slugging .917 against his sweeper, .900 against his slider, and .800 against his sinker. So again, Senga relying mainly on the four-seamer and fork makes all the sense in the world.

As Senga continues his transition from starter to bulk reliever to high-leverage reliever, one of the most important things to follow is how the four-seamer plays -- and whether he can maintain his velocity and remain effective as he works on shorter rest.

I wrote on Monday that the Mets' bullpen for 2027 is Devin Williams and seven shrug emojis. If Senga can blossom in his new role, though, the number of shrug emojis could be down to six.

The Cubs front office sure was busy on Monday.

Not counting the Jameson Taillon deal, who was the subtraction of a player who had already been designated for assignment, the Cubs added five major leaguers in four separate trades. This cost the Cubs seven minor league players, six of whom still had prospect eligibility.

Because five of those six players were among my Top 25 prospects mid-season update, it’s probably time to update that as well. But before I do that, I wanted to give a summary of the players the Cubs lost.

Pretty much all of the position players the Cubs dealt were “blocked” at the major league level. Take infielder Jefferson Rojas, whom I had ranked as the Cubs No. 2 prospect. I’m very high on Rojas. He’s a 21-year-old succeeding in Double-A. I think he has the upside of a quality major league starter. I don’t think Rojas is a shortstop, but he could be an above-average defender at second or third base. He could be a guy who hits .265 with around 20 home runs and 20 steals.

But the Cubs already have a second and a third baseman under contract for the next several seasons and even if Hoerner or Bregman falter, Rojas has been surpassed in the organization by Pedro Ramírez. Then there’s Matt Shaw, who would also rank higher than Rojas. Did the Cubs get full value back for Rojas in two rental players? Maybe not, but they got 90 cents on the dollar. Plus, the Cubs had to trade Rojas sooner rather than later. His value wasn’t likely to increase until he could prove himself on the major league level, something he was very unlikely to get in Chicago. Players in the bottom half of Top 100 prospects lists generally only pan out as good major leaguers about a third of the time, anyway.

Would I have liked to get a controllable starter back for Rojas? Definitely, but there was only one real controllable starter dealt (José Soriano) and he went for a whole lot more than Jefferson Rojas. The Cubs got arguably the second-best available rental starting pitcher in Clay Holmes for him, plus a rental outfielder in Tyrone Taylor who has crushed lefties this year.

Then there’s Moisés Ballesteros, who went along with Mason McGwire for a controllable pitcher, albeit a reliever in Ryan Zeferjahn. Despite his slump from May that got him sent down to the minors, I still believe in Mo Baller’s left-handed bat. It’s a sweet stroke and he loves to dump line drives into the left-center and right-center gaps. His post-April struggles were real as he was hitting the ball into the ground way too much and was not able to pull those inside pitches like he had been previously. But I’m confident he’ll figure things out eventually.

But like Rojas, where was Ballesteros going to play on the Cubs? He’s simply not a good defensive catcher and I don’t think he ever will be. For a while he was improving, but that’s plateaued. He has not gotten any better down in Iowa this year. And if he’s not a catcher, what is he? At 5’8”, you need a lot of infielders with very accurate arms to play him at first. If he has to DH, he’s a guy who hits .280 with a .340 OBP and 20 home runs and 35 doubles. Is that good enough for a full-time DH? Maybe. Maybe not. And that’s close to a best-case scenario.

Ballesteros has also been passed in the Cubs organization by the development of Owen Ayers, who is someone who really can stay behind the plate. That’s another reason Mo Baller was expendable.

Jonathon Long, who went to the Marlins for a controllable starter (albeit one who’s in the minor leagues) in Braxton Garrett, is similarly blocked. He can maybe give you a few games in left field, but he’s a first baseman with 55 power. Like Ballesteros, that’s more like 15-to-20 home runs a year than 30 or more. His hit tool is at least average, but he’s also right-handed and all other things being equal, teams prefer a left-handed first baseman. Long was never going to push Michael Busch off of first base, so the Cubs might as well deal him now. If Garrett returns to what he was before Tommy John surgery, then the Cubs got a great deal.

Right-hander Jace Beck was a guy the Cubs signed as a minor league free agent over the winter after he was released from the Mets organization. I don’t know what the Cubs did to him, but he started striking out a ton of batters in Double-A Knoxville, which got him on some prospect lists. He hasn’t repeated that success since his promotion to Iowa, but it’s still a small sample size. Beck combines a mid-90s fastball with a solid splitter. Unless he can improve his slider, he’s probably a reliever. But the Cubs did great to sign someone over the winter for a minor-league salary and then flip him in a deal for a controllable starter like Garrett.

As far as the other players the Cubs traded before the Deadline, right-hander Mason McGwire is better known for his father than his pitching right now, but he has turned himself into a real prospect, which he definitely didn’t look like his first two years in the organization. He missed all of 2025 with an injury and when he returned this year, his curveball had a much better shape and he had much better control of it. Despite having a starting pitcher’s frame, I think McGwire is destined for the bullpen unless he can find a new pitch to get lefties out. My biggest regret on trading McGwire is that his father vowed to come to Wrigley Field in Cubs gear if he made the majors and that would have made Cardinals fans’ heads explode. I don’t think they’ll mind him in Angels gear.

The Blue Jays have a type, apparently, as they got two very similar profiles in Brett Bateman and Ty Southisene. Both are short, high-contact guys with close to zero power and plus speed. They are both good defenders. They’re also both Asian-American, which is probably just a coincidence but some commenters on the Blue Jays board were very excited about that. Their lack of power, and the fact that Southisene probably isn’t a pure shortstop although he can play there, means both are likely bench players in the major leagues, if they even make it there.

So that’s what the Cubs have lost. What does their farm system look like now? It’s down, of course. You don’t lose one of your Top 100 prospects without taking a hit in the rankings. But Rojas was the only player the Cubs dealt who was among my Top Ten Cubs prospects in the mid-season update, although Ballesteros would have clearly also been in the top ten if he still had prospect eligibility. He’d probably rank fourth, just behind the emerging Ayers.

So here is my updated list of the Cubs top 25 prospects. New players on the list are in boldface.

1. Josiah Hartshorn OF/1B
2. Owen Ayers C
3. Kane Kepley OF
4. Cade Townsend RHP
5. Jaxon Wiggins RHP
6. Kaleb Wing RHP
7. Ethan Conrad OF
8. Caden Sorrell OF
9. James Triantos 2B/OF
10. Myles Bailey 1B
11. Brooks Caple RHP
12. Dominick Reid RHP
13. Juan Cabada 2B
14. Jose Escobar 2B/LF
15. Grant Kipp RHP
16. Jostin Florentino RHP
17. Carson Jasa RHP
18. Derniche Valdez SS
19. Nazier Mulé RHP
20. Will Sanders RHP
21. Pierce Coppola LHP
22. Luis Martinez-Gomez RHP
23. Logan Poteet C
24. Angel Cepeda SS
25. Brody McCullough RHP

Valdez is an interesting case and I moved him up to 18 because he was a highly-regarded international signing who just didn’t hit his first three years in the system and dropped off of all prospect lists. However, a little over a month ago, Valdez got glasses and since then he’s been tearing the cover off the ball. So if the reason he couldn’t hit was that he couldn’t see, then he becomes an interesting prospect again. We still have to wait a bit to see that this isn’t just a fluke, but it’s a promising development.

Martinez-Gomez is a fastball/splitter pitcher who has taken a step forward with his control this year, which was what was keeping him off of prospect lists before. There’s a lot of reliever risk here, but there’s also some back-end starter potential.

Poteet makes the list because he’s hit 18 home runs this year and has the defensive skills to stick behind the plate. There are, however, some major hit tool questions as Poteet has been striking out at a 37 percent clip since his promotion to High-A South Bend. He has to cut that down to be a major leaguer.

Cepeda is someone who has made some strides in pitch selection this year, which has led to more walks and fewer strikeouts. He still has a long ways to go in that department, but his plus glove at short will buy him the time to work on that.

McCullough doesn’t have much that wows you, but he’s got a starter’s body and a starter’s arsenal and the chance to be a back-end starter. He missed all of last year with elbow surgery, but he’s back now and putting in a solid performance with Double-A.

In the fourth episode of the second season of Star Trek, the crew members of the good ship Enterprise find themselves confronted with evil doppelgängers from another dimension. Though only Spock’s malicious counterpart had a beard, with the sinister versions of James T. Kirk, Dr. McCoy, and others remaining clean-shaven, the idea of evil imitators having facial hair has made its way into pop culture. If either Luis Arraez or Kyle Schwarber were beardless, this would work very well as a lede for this article about the two of them being mirror-universe versions of each other. But they both have facial hair, so that’s right out. Oh well. Worth a shot.

Anyway, Luis Arraez is the Anti-Schwarber. Or Kyle Schwarber is the Anti-Arraez. The anti-parallels (perpendiculars?) between their games are obvious: Schwarber strikes out a ton, but sends the ball to rendezvous with the rovers on Mars with when he does hit it, while Arraez strikes out roughly as often as blue moons appear on a leap year Friday the 13th, but doesn’t have a whole lot of power. But even knowing that, the extent to which the two are inverses of each other is shocking (all stats prior to last night’s game):

Just about the only place they don’t diverge is in Launch Angle Sweet Spot; they’re both about as good as the other at hitting the ball in the optimal launch angle range. But in every other regard, they’re just about polar opposites.

Just by eyeballing the chart above (or a couple of at-bats from each), you get the picture. But we can also quantify their lack of similarity: Baseball Savant offers a Player Similarity tool that provides a numerical comparison based on batting profile (contact stats, walks, strikeouts), with numbers closer to 1 indicating greater similarity. For example, the players most similar to Kyle Schwarber are Nick Kurtz (.78), Owen Caissie (.73), and Munetaka Murakami (.72). The players most similar to Luis Arraez are Ernie Clement (.74) and Javier Sanoja (0.73).

By default, the tool will only show you the players with a similarity score of at least 0.7. For most players, this produces a busy but manageable visual, like so:

(If you’re wondering, each colored circle represents a different batting input, e.g. red represents barrel rate). And for players with highly unusual profiles—the unicorns of the league— you get a very tidy look at the very small number of players who can truly compare.

But if you want to find Arraez on Schwarber’s diagram, or vice-versa, you have to widen the criteria to show players who are much less similar. Much, much less similar. And once you’ve adjusted the settings sufficiently, you see this:

This resembles nothing more than one of those galaxy maps projected onto a planetarium dome; perhaps someday our finest scientists will send a probe to planet Pete Crow-Armstrong. But once you’ve gotten over the awe-inspiring chaos of the diagram, you can find out just how un-similar Arraez and Schwarber are.

Kyle Schwarber isn’t the least Arraez-esque player in the league. That would be Esmerlyn Valdez, a prospect who’s played 45 games for the Pirates this year, with a score of .03. Among league regulars, the least Arraez-like is Elly De La Cruz, with an .04. But Kyle Schwarber isn’t all that much closer to Arraezhood: with an .07, he ranks 413th on the similarity chart. Arraez isn’t the least Schwarberlike player in the league, but he’s close: only Chandler Simpson of the Rays is further away.

You already know the difference in barrel rate, walk rate and strikeout rate from the first table, but here’s a closer look at the contact inputs that go into that lack of similarity:

The difference in those numbers don’t leap out quite as much as the gaps in walk and strikeout rate, but Schwarber is over twice as likely to make solid contact as Arraez, and about half as likely to make weak contact.

Nothing you have read in this article is likely to come as any surprise. But perhaps that itself should come as no surprise. Everywhere you look in literature, film, art, you’ll see the idea of the mirror image, the inverted doppelgänger, the evil twin…

I could’ve started this with an evil Twin joke. Damn.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (58-50) won 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning scoring 2 runs on a Delgado RBI double and Loperfido RBI single. They got another run in the 4th inning on a Brooks solo home run. Hendrickson got the start and pitched well allowing 1 run over 5.2 innings. Alexander added another run in the 6th on an RBI single. Ullola allowed 2 runs but Munoz closed the door in the 9th as Sugar Land won 4-3.

Note: Loperfido is hitting .305 in Triple-A.

• Cavan Biggio, 3B: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Ray Delgado, 2B: 1-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
• Joey Loperfido, RF: 2-for-4, R, RBI, SB
• CJ Alexander, DH: 1-for-4, RBI
• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI

• Josh Hendrickson, LHP: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (WIN)
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (49-54) won 8-7 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the 2nd inning scoring 3 runs on RBI singles from Nunez, Holy and Gomez. They got another run in the third on a Schiavone RBI double. In the 4th, the offense scored 3 runs on an Encarnacion RBI single and Janek 2 run single. Mancini got the start and went 3.2 innings allowing 3 runs. The pen allowed 3 runs in the 6th as the Drillers closed the gap. The Drillers tied things up in the 9th. The game went to extra innings and in the 10th, the Hooks walked it off on a Nunez RBI single.

Note: Encarnacion has 47 stolen bases this season.

• Yamal Encarnacion, RF: 2-for-5, R, RBI, SB
• Walker Janek, C: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI, SB
• Jason Schiavone, DH: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI, BB
• Will Bush, 1B: 1-for-5, R
• Cameron Sisneros, LF: 1-for-4, R
• Alejandro Nunez, 2B: 3-for-4, R, RBI, BB
• Max Holy, SS: 1-for-3, R, RBI, BB
• Kenni Gomez, CF: 2-for-4, R, RBI

• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Alejandro Torres, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (WIN)

A+: Asheville Tourists (34-68) won 5-2 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the second inning on a Monistere RBI single. They got another run in the 3rd on a Neyens RBI single. Santos got the start and went 4 innings allowing 1 run. The pen allowed a run as the Dash tied it at 2 and the game went to extra innings. In the 10th, Frey connected on a 3 run home run to take the lead. Langford tossed a scoreless 10th to close out the 5-2 win.

Note: Frey is hitting .333 with 4 home runs over his last 13 games.

• Justin Thomas, DH: 0-for-4, R, BB, SB
• Xavier Neyens, DH: 1-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, SB
• Ethan Frey, CF: 2-for-5, R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 0-for-2, R, BB, SB
• Nick Monistere, SS: 1-for-4, R, RBI

• Yeriel Santos, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Andrew Marrero, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Grayson Saunier, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (52-49) lost 10-4 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning on a De Leon RBI single. Fraide got the start and went 3.2 innings allowing 3 runs, with all three coming in the first inning. Luciano connected on a 2 run home run in the 2nd inning to tie the game at 3. After the Woodpeckers got a run in the 5th on an Alvarez RBI single, Salem took the lead scoring 5 runs off Varela. Rosario allowed a couple runs in relief and the offense was unable to score again as the Woodpeckers fell 10-4.

Note: Luciano has a .878 OPS in Single-A this season.

• Waner Luciano, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI
• Josh Wakefield, RF: 0-for-3, R, SB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 1-for-4, RBI
• Luis De Leon, C: 1-for-4, RBI
• Hector Salas, 2B: 1-for-3, R, SB

• Juan Fraide, RHP: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Jose Varela, RHP: 3.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Brandon McPherson – 7:35 CT

CC: Cole Hertzler – 6:35 CT

AV: TBD – 5:30 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

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All 30 MLB teams take the field today, starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers in Chi-Town and finishing with the Tigers taking on the Mariners in Seattle.

Our experts have looked across the slate to deliver you their favorite MLB picks on the board; among them is the Boys in Blue bouncing back after losing Tarik Skubal's first start as a Dodger last night.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Jon Metler: Dodgers moneyline	+113
Joe Osborne: Brewers moneyline	-130

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

How can you not be romantic about baseball? Just one day after fading the Los Angeles Dodgers with Tarik Skubal on the mound and cashing a +190 ticket on the Chicago Cubs, we're right back on L.A. with Eric Lauer getting the start. That's the beauty of sports betting — it's all about price, not loyalty.

Shota Imanaga takes the ball for Chicago, and while a left-handed starter might appear to be a difficult matchup for Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker, his pitch sequencing actually plays into their strengths. Imanaga depends on locating his four-seam fastball at the top of the zone to set up his splitter, but L.A.'s left-handed hitters have the bat control to consistently handle elevated fastballs. Polymarket has L.A. as a 47-cent underdog, but I make the Dodgers a 52-cent favorite, which is why I'm hitting the button.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNLA, MARQ

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-130) at Polymarket

Fade Paul Skenes Day? Sure. The Milwaukee Brewers are in a strong position to take care of business at home tonight. Skenes has started to unravel, posting a 6.25 ERA across six July starts, while Pittsburgh has gone an almost unbelievable 3-11 in his last 14 outings. His road ERA also sits at 4.56, more than a full run higher than at home.

This Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been ice cold since the All-Star break and especially bad lately, producing a brutal .571 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Kyle Harrison owns a remarkable 1.56 ERA in nine home starts and struck out a season-high 12 Pirates when he faced them in April.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNP, Brewers.TV

More MLB best bets for today

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Lehigh Valley IronPigs 10, Worcester Red Sox 5 (BOX)

The IronPigs (PHI) went up 5-0 early, due to a short outing from starter Blake Wehunt, who allowed seven hits and three earned in three innings to get the loss. A slew of base hits in the middle innings helped the Woo Sox cut the lead to 6-5 after six innings, before Lehigh Valley ran away with it.

Three-hit days from Franklin Arias and Allan Castro, along with a two-hit day from Andrew Knizner, contributed to a 12-hit effort from Worcester in the loss. Arias is now 10-for-35 (.286) since his Triple-A promotion, picking right up where he left off. Kristian Campbell had three more productive plate appearances, with a single, a walk, and a sacrifice fly. He’s slashing .389/.514/.537 over his past 18 games.

It should be noted that Angel Bastardo threw another shutout inning, with two strikeouts. While his ERA sits at 4.20 on the season, he’s thrown nine straight shutout innings (six appearances), with no walks and 18 strikeouts.

John Holobetz (1-0, 1.59) gets the ball on Wednesday at 6:45 for Worcester.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6, Portland Sea Dogs 4 (BOX)

Much like Worcester, the Sea Dogs fell behind early on Tuesday before clawing back. Jeremy Wu-Yelland threw two clean innings as the opener before the bullpen struggled, with Caleb Bolden getting the loss due to a four-run third inning for the Fisher Cats (TOR).

Home runs from Portland’s Johanfran Garcia (13th) and Miguel Bleis (10th) got Portland back in it, with Bleis totaling three hits, two runs, and two RBI on the evening.

Portland has not announced a starter for the 12:05 matinee on Wednesday.

Greenville Drive 12, Hudson Valley Renegades 6 (BOX)

The Drive were swinging the Styx against the Renegades (NYY) on Tuesday, led by recent second-round draft pick Owen Hull. Hull has multiple hits in each of his first three games, and on Tuesday he had a double, and a three-run home run that went over the 420 sign in center field.

Justin Gonzales and Antonio Anderson also had multi-hit days for the Drive. Starter Alex Bouchard struck out seven and allowed one run, but did not go long enough for the win. Steven Brooks was the only effective reliever and was credited with the win by the official scorer despite closing out the game.

Marcus Phillips (0-5, 6.54) will take the hill for the Drive on Wednesday at 6:45.

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Fayetteville Woodpeckers 4 (BOX)

The RidgeYaks put up a ten-spot on Tuesday, with hits coming from the top and bottom of the lineup. Louis Andujar started things off with a two-run home run in the first. Kleyver Salazar, Andrews Opata, and Avinson Pinto all had two hits on the day, with Pinto stealing two bases as well.

Yermain Ruiz picked up the win against the Woodpeckers (HOU), throwing three innings and not allowing an earned run. Harry Blum got an eight-out save, his third.

The RidgeYaks send Brady Tygart (3-1, 5.06) to the bump on Wednesday at 6:35.

Columbus Clippers 15, Syracuse Mets 7

Clippers improve to 58-50

The Columbus Clippers offense erupted for 15 runs on 16 hits and eight walks Tuesday in an absolute beatdown of Somerset. Leading the charge was top infield prospect Angel Genao, who blasted two home runs (both over 100 mph exit velocity) while going 2-for-5 with a walk in the victory.

Also homering was Ralphy Velazquez, who has been heating up of late. Velazquez went 3-for-5 with his eight homer at Triple-A.

Kahlil Watson was perfect at the plate, going 4-for-4 with a double while George Valera went 2-for-5 with a home run and a walk and the newly-acquired Blake Perkins tripled. Coopre Ingle went 2-for-5 with a double and a walk.

Starting pitcher Austin Peterson allowed four runs (one earned) on five hits with three strikeouts and no walks in 6.0 innings.

Ryan Webb allowed one run and Hunter Stanley allowed two runs in their lone innings of work while Daniel Espino pitched a perfect inning with two strikeouts.

Akron RubberDucks 17, Somerset Patriots 3

RubberDucks improve to 48-54

It wasn’t just Columbus that had a huge day offensively on Tuesday. Akron also went off with 17 runs on 13 hits and 11 walks.

Leading the charge was Nolan Schubart, who went 4-for-6 with a double. Maick Collado also had a huge game, going 4-for-6 with a double and four RBIs. Ryan Cesarini went 2-for-3 with a double, two walks and a stolen base and Bennett Thompson went 1-for-4 with a walk, a hit by pitch and a stolen base.

Aaron Walton reached base safely four times, walking three times and getting hit by a pitch while Jaison Chourio doubled and had three RBIs.

Starting pitcher Rafe Schlesinger was rock solid, allowing two runs on six hits in 6.0 innings with six strikeouts and four walks.

Jack Jasiack and Adam Tulloch both pitched a scoreless inning of relief.

Lake County Captains 6, Lansing Lugnuts 7

Captains fall to 54-45

A late rally from Lake County fell just short on Tuesday.

Welbyn Francisca had the lone multi-hit game, going 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles. Cannon Peebles also had an excellent game, going 1-for-2 with a home run and two walks.

Jonah Advincula tripled, Garrett Howe went 1-for-3 with a walk and both Esteban Gonzalez and Luis De La Cruz doubled, with Gonzalez stealing a base.

Starting pitcher Ben Lively’s rehab continued with two runs allowed on four hits in 2.2 innings with three strikeouts and a walk.

Will McCausland piggybacked with Lively, allowing five runs on six hits in 5.1 innings while striking out three and walking one.

Hill City Howlers 3, Wilson Warbirds 6

Howlers fall to 43-60

Riley Nelson went 1-for-2 with a double and two walks to lead the way for Hill City offensively. Jonathan Martinez went 2-for-4 with two doubles while Johan Rodriguez homered and Alejandro Blasco tripled.

Starting pitcher Aden Major allowed two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings with five strikeouts and one walk.

Luis Torres followed by allowing four runs in 1.1 innings to take the loss. Aaron Savary impressed in 2.0 innings of perfect relief with three strikeouts.

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The New York Yankees picked up a shutout victory Tuesday night, and they're -150 favorites to take today's rubber match.

With St. Louis spiralling offensively, my Cardinals vs. Yankees predictions see value in backing the home team to pick up another low-scoring win.

Let's break it all down with my MLB picks on Wednesday, Aug. 5.

Who will win Cardinals vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (-155)

Will Warren's indicators (3.58 xFIP, 4.06 SIERA) suggest he has pitched better than his results (6.05 ERA) over the last month, and this is a good spot for the tide to turn.

The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled mightily to produce against righties, ranking dead last in wOBA and OPS during that span.

The New York Yankees have the better and more in-form bullpen, so there won’t be any soft spots where the Cardinals have an advantage at the plate.

I’d play the Yankees to -160.

COVERS INTEL:Warren's much-improved 24.1% fly-ball rate over the past month gives him a better chance of keeping the ball in the park.

Cardinals vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

Warren’s Achilles' heel is conceding power, and that shouldn’t be much of an issue against the Cardinals. 

They own a putrid .090 ISO and sit 29th in HR/FB against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

While the Yankees have hit for some power, Andre Pallante’s 96th-percentile ground-ball rate will help take that out of the equation.

The power has also come at a high cost in terms of strikeouts, with no team punching out at a higher clip the past month.

I see a ton of value on this Under, and would bet it to -130.

Cardinals vs Yankees weather

The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80, with winds blowing West. Small bump to the bats.

Cardinals vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals +135 | Yankees -155
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Cardinals vs Yankees trend

New York has hit the Game Total Under in 25 of the last 40 games (+8.70 units, 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Yankees.

How to watch Cardinals vs Yankees and game info

Cardinals vs Yankees latest injuries

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One of the commenters on the Daulton Varsho lab asked if I would do a lab on Trevor Larnach. Usually, I don’t pay much attention to what hasn’t been done, but multiple reports have now indicated that a deal was in place to send Bryan Abreu to the Twins in exchange for Larnach. According to all of those sources, Jim Crane nixed the deal. Before I dive into numbers, we should probably look at the differences between the two deals.

Everyone has opined about the Varsho deal. The primary criticism is that you traded away a pitcher with years of control (can become a free agent following the 2029 season) for a player with no control beyond this season. However, Arrighetti had minimal present value. He was 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, but virtually all of those wins came in a brilliant first month that saw him win the Pitcher of the Month Award. He was not currently in the Astros rotation and some would argue that he wouldn’t likely rejoin it unless there were major injuries. So, this was a classic get something now for someone that could help in the future kind of deal.

As much as I have enjoyed covering performance in spurts lately, the overall numbers on Arrighetti tell a story. He is 15-23 with a 4.66 ERA. He had a really good month in 2024 and a really good month this season. Take those two months away and he is a 5.00 ERA pitcher. Naturally, the Blue Jays are thinking but what if he can become THAT pitcher again? The deal makes sense for them because they aren’t going anywhere this season anyway, so why not trade for a lottery ticket?

The Larnach trade is different because you would have traded a pitcher that has an ERA near 2.00 since May 1st. Abreu is useful to you right now and certainly has been lately. The fact that the trade was vetoed by ownership means one of two things (both can be true at the same time). First, Jim Crane has little confidence in Dana Brown, so he is micromanaging him through the end of his contract. Secondly, Crane might actually be interested in re-signing Abreu and that wouldn’t happen if he is dealt.

Both of those statements deserves some additional focus, but I will save that for another piece. In this piece, we will look at what Brown was thinking and whether there was some upside there. Larnach has only been a regular for three seasons, so we will go back three years instead of five like we did for Varsho. However, we are looking at the same numbers as yesterday’s piece except I will jettison bases per out for now.

I seriously doubt that Jim Crane or his buddy Jeff Bagwell are crunching Statcast numbers in their spare time. However. there is an axiom here that even traditionalists can follow. When a player is having a career year, they are rarely ever really THAT good. Things are just coming together and there is always the possibility that they will stop at any moment.

The current average OPS in MLB is around .720. That means that Larnach has largely been an above average big league hitter over the last three seasons even if you look just at the Statcast numbers. We can call the Varsho deal a something for currently nothing deal and feel somewhat good about it if we couch it in those terms. However, Varsho is not a middle of the order hitter no matter how badly Joe Espada wants to call him one. Larnach would be a lot closer to what they were looking for and he has another season of control left beyond this season.

Again, I seriously doubt Crane and Bagwell are looking at THESE numbers, but I could be wrong. The hard hit percentage in particular is troubling. 40 percent is the league average, so he has been better than average until this season. The fact that he has better overall numbers in spite of making softer contact jumps off the page. However, the rest of the numbers are music to my ears.

Keep in mind that the average chase rate is 30 percent. The average swing rate is also higher than what he is currently doing as well (46-48 percent). So, he is a patient hitter and my little sabermetric heart loves those kinds of hitters. The contact rates are a little below league average (76-78 percent) but they are not drastically low. Essentially this guy has the profile of an above average major league hitter. Having that in the outfield sure would look nice.

However, as we saw with Varsho, fielding is a concern and one of the reasons why Varsho was considered a plus. Larnach could charitably be called a corner bat, but he is listed as a left fielder and designated hitter. We already have a designated hitter, so he would be the left fielder everyday. How does he look according to the defensive metrics?

Yikes. This looks even worse when you include the defensive innings. A standard everyday player plays about 1200 defensive innings over the course of a full season. Larnach had 429, 441, and 629 so far this season. So, any average fan with a calculator on their phone could prorate those numbers over the course of a full season’s worth of innings. It isn’t a pretty sight.

Now, certainly Dana Brown could look at the short porch in Daikan Park and talk himself into saying it is an easier left field to play than for most ballparks. That makes some sense. You could even talk yourself into the idea that you needed that bat and were willing to stomach the glove. I did not include BWAR or FWAR in the Varsho piece, but it is fair to point out that Larnach has been worth 2.1 FWAR this season. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

Abreu has been worth 0.5, but there are tons of analysts out there that would say that WAR does not do a good job of capturing relief pitcher’s contributions. It is hard to account for leverage and he definitely would be given more leverage from here until the end of the season. However, it is also not hard to see what Dana Brown was thinking. Those of us that have been critical of him should take this deal into account when evaluating his baseball acumen. After all, he reached an agreement according to multiple sources. Ownership simply vetoed the deal. We will have to explore that angle down the road.

The Yankees offense might be hanging on by their fingernails, but thanks to immaculate starting pitching, they come away from the road trip they just completed winning six of ten. They’ve scored two or fewer runs in each of the last four games in Chicago yet still snuck out of Wrigley with a series win. All of their offense in the rubber game boiled down to consecutive ABs in the third, Ryan McMahon and José Caballero winning the game with a pair of swings.

We join McMahon to lead off the third, expectations already low after Cubs starter Colin Rea struck out five of the first six Yankees he faced. McMahon has seen his playing time taper off in recent weeks as the Yankees have faced a host of left-handed pitchers, so what looked like the stirrings of an uptick in production at the plate in June were swiftly halted in their tracks.

Rea typically attacks lefty hitters with four-seamers and changeups, and that’s exactly the course of action he chooses against McMahon, starting with this first-pitch four-seamer at 94.

I’ll be honest, I have no idea what McMahon is looking for here. This fastball exits Rea’s hand aimed right down the middle and only fades a bit toward the outer half, but McMahon takes it all the way for called strike one. One of the many things contributing to the Yankees lineup’s struggles has been this tendency to take very hittable pitches early in the count. Not only is that likely the best pitch you’re going to get in a given AB, but it effectively gifts the pitcher count leverage without having to do to much as the Yankees give a strike away.

After earning a called strike with the heater on the outer half, a logical followup pitch would be to tunnel a changeup along a similar aiming point before it fades down and away trying to get McMahon to chase.

Rea yanks this changeup into the zone and this time McMahon does swing at the meatball, lining it to right at 111 mph for a leadoff single.

Here’s the full AB:

Next up is Caballero. He was something of a revelation out of the gate, starting the season with league-average offense, league-leading defense at short, and typically elite base running. But Caballero like much of the Yankees offense fell into a deep slump in June and July, mustering an anemic 71 wRC+ with worsening defense in the those two months. As such, expectations are yet again not high that he can do something of note in this spot.

Rea tends to have a different approach against righties — instead of four-seamers, changeups, and curveballs, he tends to go sinker, sweeper, slider against same-handed batters. Indeed, the first pitch Caballero sees is a 93 mph sinker.

This is a really disciplined take from Caballero. This sinker looks like a strike for most of its path toward home, only ducking out of the strike zone down and in during the final 15 feet before reaching the batter.

Curiously, Rea opts for a four-seamer for his 1-0 pitch to Caballero. On one hand, it makes sense given Caballero has performed a lot worse against the four-seamer than the sinker. On the other, Caballero has chased pretty much every sweeper and slider out of the zone in recent weeks, so I was expecting a breaker rather than a heater in this spot.

Rea leaves this 94 mph four-seamer up and out over the plate and Caballero jumps all over it, crushing it 408 feet to left-center to open the scoring, 2-0. You can tell Caballero is sitting dead red and he certainly doesn’t miss it.

Here’s the full AB:

I’m not going to make any declarations that this pair of ABs from McMahon and Caballero are at all indicative of some sort of turnaround in form for either player. However, both are illustrative of something I’d like to see more from pretty much the entire Yankees lineup. I mentioned earlier how detrimental it was for Yankees hitters to be so passive against hittable first-pitch fastballs. Another thing that has really limited their production has been an inability to punish mistake pitches when they do swing, the Yankees seemingly fouling off a disproportionate number of meatballs over the summer. Both McMahon and Caballero made sure to punish the two mistakes that Rea offered up, and it resulted in them winning the game.

The coming weeks could be a time of upheaval for McMahon and Caballero. Even with Anthony Volpe and Max Schuemann optioned to Triple-A, the infield is pretty crowded right now. Luis García Jr. seems most likely to just play first and DH, though he has seen plenty of time at the keystone if the Yankees decide to go down that road at all (Aaron Boone seemed to indicate that this was unlikely). Monday night’s call-up for Yankees top overall prospect George Lombard Jr. means that Caballero’s days starting at short are numbered. And Amed Rosario’s presence still cuts into McMahon’s time at third as well. It’s not a bad thing to have options, and the possibility of moving McMahon and Caballero to the bench gives the Yankees flexibility to use the former as a late-inning defensive substitution and Caballero as the super utility player he was initially envisioned to be.

Meet the Mets

The new-look Mets defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-2. Luis Torrens had a tremendous game, going 3-for-3 with a home run and a walk, driving in four of the Mets six runs.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Faith and Fear in Flushing, New York Daily News, New York Post

It might take some time before anyone can know how David Stearns’ deadline moves worked out, but he stuck to his guns in his vision.

While some of the prospects the Mets traded for might become part of a future Mets team, others could be used in trade packages on the not-too-distant future.

The Mets aren’t done trading, they’re simply on hold until they can resume this offseason.

Clay Holmes was nearly traded to the Diamondbacks, before troubling medical records put a stop to the potential deal.

New Mets prospect Sammy Stafura grew up a die-hard Mets fan, rooting for David Wright and Ruben Tejada in his home less than 40 minutes from Citi Field.

Sammy Stafura has declared his undying dedication to his new organization, giving the Mets a prospect willing to do anything to help them.

Robert Stock will be making his start in the next turn of the rotation, with Kodai Senga being turned into a one-inning leverage reliever.

Will Sammon reflected on the Mets trade deadline and the conversations and thoughts that shaped their decisions.

Around the National League East

The Phillies won a 5-0 shutout of the Nationals. Jesus Luzardo had a fantastic outing, going eight scoreless innings giving up four hits and two walks while striking out seven.

The Braves got the better of the Marlins with a 4-2 win. Austin Riley drove in two of the Braves’ four runs with a two-run home run in the seventh inning.

Around Major League Baseball

The Adley Rutschman deal illustrated two teams with opposite approaches, one constantly worried about the future that may never come and another chasing present glory.

The Yankees, after a disappointing trade deadline, have played the final card in their hand, promoting top prospect George Lombard Jr.

The Angels designated Jorge Soler for assignment.

MLB.com listed the six biggest winners of the trade deadline.

It was a chaotic trade deadline, and there were eight huge surprises that shocked the league.

To pair with the biggest splashes, there were some more under the radar trades that could make big impacts.

Deesha Thosar attempted to answer the ten biggest questions after the trade deadline.

While the Tarik Skubal trade seemed to come together pretty quickly for the Dodgers, the Brewers also threw their hat in the ring.

Tigers president Scott Harris has responded to the criticisms of the return the Tigers received in the Skubal trade.

Skubal himself also defended the trade, saying that every team could’ve traded for him.

Ippei Mizuhara’s bookie said that the signs of Mizuhara’s gambling addiction were evident early on.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

A Pod of Their Own was back with a post-trade deadline episode.

Steve Sypa published another group of Mets Minor League Players of the Week.

Lukas Vlahos broke down the return the Mets got in the trade of Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor.

Allison McCague released both her pitcher meter and position player meter for the last two weeks of Mets baseball.

This Date in Mets History

The 1973 New York Mets reached their worst record of the season, falling 12 games under .500, ahead of an eventual NLCS win and World Series appearance.