It’s a loaded slate of baseball with all 30 teams hitting the field Tuesday, May 5, and I’ve got a trio of NRFI/YRFI bets to cover you throughout the night.
My favorite MLB picks begin with the Baltimore Orioles-Miami Marlins bout in the early window and wrap up with tonight’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels.
Best NRFI/YRFI bets today
Pick
Odds
/ - NRFI
-107
/ - NRFI
-103
/ - NRFI
-102
Orioles at Marlins: NRFI (-107)
Baltimore Orioles veteran Chris Bassitt has spun a blemish-free opening inning in three of his past four starts, and he’s coming off a strong outing with just a single run allowed and seven strikeouts across 6 2/3 frames. He’s catching the Miami Marlins at the right time, too. They’ve posted a 28th-ranked wOBA while striking out at the third-highest clip in baseball and averaging just 2.8 runs per game during a 3-6 slump.
Turning to Miami righty Sandy Alcantara, he has pitched a scoreless first inning in six of his seven starts, and the Orioles are tied for last in the majors in percentage of games with a run in the opening frame.
We’re also landing an excellent number because the Nationals have scored in the first inning at the third-highest clip in the league while sporting an unsustainably high .388 BABIP, so statistical correction is set to kick in.
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NATS, MNNT
White Sox at Angels: NRFI (-102)
Chicago White Sox starter Erick Fedde has held opposing hitters to a minuscule .385 OPS in the opening frame and pitched a scoreless first in three of his four starts, including last time out against the Los Angeles Angels.
Los Angeles counters with lefty Sam Aldegheri, and he’ll have the benefit of the Chicago lineup seeing him for the first time. So, while Aldegheri’s MLB and Triple A numbers are nothing to write home about, the Pale Hose sport a .231 batting average in the first frame and score in the first inning at a league-average rate of just 28.57%.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ABTV, CHSN
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
NRFI/YRFI picks: 6-7, -1.37 units
What is a NRFI bet?
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
FAYETTEVILLE, AR - MAY 31: Arkansas Razorbacks catcher Ryder Helfrick (27) makes a throw to second base during the NCAA Division I Regional baseball game between the Creighton Blue Jays and Arkansas Razorbacks on May 31, 2025, at Baum-Walker Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I would be quite surprised if the Washington Nationals do not have a heavy scouting presence in Fayetteville, Arkansas right now. There are two Arkansas Razorbacks players that could be in play for the Nats with their 11th pick in this upcoming draft. Those would be pitcher Hunter Dietz and catcher Ryder Helfrick.
The pair has arguably been the best battery in the SEC, and both are jumping up draft boards this season. They have both been big time performers in the SEC, and both play positions that the Nats need badly. I am going to breakdown their skills, and talk about which one would be a better fit for the Nats.
Let’s start with Helfrick. If you have watched any Nats games this season, you would know that the catching position has been a problem. Keibert Ruiz and Drew Millas have both been total liabilities at the plate. The Nats traded for Harry Ford, but he has been awful in Triple-A this year. It is clear that the Nats still need to be searching for their catcher of the future.
The best catcher in this draft is Vahn Lackey out of Georgia Tech, but he is going to be a top 5 pick. That leaves Helfrick as the consolation prize. He is a very good prospect in his own right, ranking 10th on the Baseball America board and 16th on the MLB Pipeline board. His biggest strengths are his massive power and good defensive chops.
Helfrick has plus raw power and has 33 home runs in 140 career college games. His OPS has been over 1.000 in each of the past two seasons. However, there are some question marks about his hit tool. He does not project to hit for a great average, but the offensive bar for a catcher is not that high.
A good offensive comparison may be pre-2025 Cal Raleigh. That version of Raleigh hit around .220 with 25-30 homers. He was not an MVP candidate, but he was still one of the best catchers in baseball. That could be what we see from Helfrick. It is worth noting that Helfrick has lowered his strikeout percentage every year he has been in college, and is only striking out 17.5% of the time this year.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN mocked Helfrick to the Nats, noting that the Razorbacks catcher has improved his contact rates significantly. Helfrick fits a need and is in the 11th overall pick range on talent. It just feels like a natural fit, and one we will hear about a lot as we approach the draft.
While Helfrick is a pretty easy prospect to analyze, his teammate Hunter Dietz is more polarizing. You can see how controversial he is based on his range. MLB Pipeline ranks him at 18th, while Baseball America has him all the way at 55th.
Personally, I think BA is way off on this one. Dietz is a massive left handed pitcher who throws in the mid to upper 90’s, while featuring several potentially plus breaking balls. He is not some massive projection either, posting a 3.43 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 65.2 innings in the SEC. Dietz was the first SEC pitcher to reach 100 strikeouts on the season.
Hunter Dietz becomes the first SEC hurler to hit the 100-strikeout plateau in 2026 🔥
This feels like a clear first round profile, so I am not sure what BA is missing here. Dietz did deal with injury issues before this season, and only threw 12.1 innings his first two years of college. However, injuries are just part of the game with pitchers these days. He was also a highly touted high school prospect, so it is not like this has come out of nowhere.
Over the past few years, Paul Toboni’s former club, the Red Sox, have loved a couple things. They really like SEC pitchers and big lefties. Dietz fits both of those categories, which could make him a fit for a front office with so many ties to the Red Sox. Last year, the Red Sox took SEC pitchers with three of their first four picks.
There is some cool video of Dietz throwing to Helfrick in a start against Alabama. Dietz was 95-97 and held the velocity into the 7th inning. Right now, it feels like Dietz could be a slight reach, but if he continues to dominate down the stretch and in post season play, he could fit squarely into the Nats range.
LHP Hunter Dietz (@RazorbackBSB) K'd 9 over 6 IP & FB sat 95-97. Real FB traits w/ ride up to 22" from 7" ft rel ht. Really got rolling as outing went, still had 97 100+ pitches in. Tight CT at 85-87 & CB up to ~2900 RPM, 4-pitch mix. Phys 6'6"/235, big time upside. R-Soph./'26… pic.twitter.com/nIoiNEHyyJ
If he has not already, I would advise Paul Toboni to take a trip down to Arkansas. That is where you can find two of the most exciting prospects in the 2026 MLB Draft that fit the Nats range in the draft and positions of need. Hunter Dietz and Ryder Helfrick are two names Nationals fans need to be monitoring.
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We’re back at it with another full slate across the big leagues tonight. My MLB player props will highlight the efforts of Cristopher Sanchez, Jacob deGrom, and Drake Baldwin.
Cristopher Sanchez has been a bright spot in the Philadelphia Phillies’ disappointing season. He’s gone 2-2 with a 2.91 ERA, striking out 50 batters in just 40 1/3 innings. The lefty has serious swing-and-miss stuff, and he’s cashed the Over in Ks in three of his last four appearances.
Sanchez will face the Athletics tonight, who are 19th in strikeouts. The southpaw has 40 Ks in 30 innings at Citizens Bank Park, and he struck out seven last time out against the Giants at home.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBC Sports California, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Jacob deGrom Under 2.5 earned runs
Jacob deGrom will have a tough task today as he faces the New York Yankees, but that won’t bother the veteran. After all, he just held the Bronx Bombers to one earned run across six frames in his most recent start. In fact, the Texas Rangers ace has hit the Under in earned runs allowed in five consecutive outings.
On the season, deGrom owns a stellar 2.01 ERA, and he has a 2.45 ERA on the road in three starts. The veteran has held this Yankees lineup to a .176 average across 85 at-bats, and Aaron Judge is barely hitting .200 against him, and none of the Yankees' main stars has had any success against deGrom. He’ll deal.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: RSN, YES
Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 runs
Drake Baldwin may not be a household name, but he’s sure making people know him very quickly. The catcher leads the big leagues with 46 hits and 33 runs scored. The 25-year-old has come across the plate in three straight contests.
He’s smacked six hits during that span, and the Atlanta Braves are the best team with RISP, batting .275. When he gets on base, it’s become a common theme for Baldwin to touch home plate.
Expect Baldwin to play his part tonight in generating offense, especially as Seattle Mariners starter George Kirby, while effective, has struggled to generate whiffs with his 19.1% strikeout rate.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BravesVSN, Mariners.TV
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 13-24, +1.41 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 04: Jackson Merrill #3 of the San Diego Padres trots around the bases after hitting a solo home run against the San Francisco Giants in the top of the first inning at Oracle Park on May 04, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Jackson Merrill hit a first-inning solo home run to put the San Diego Padres ahead of the San Francisco Giants, 1-0 but that was all the offensive excitement the Padres could muster for much of the game. Randy Vasquez started on the mound for San Diego and continued to be effective. However, with an offense that seems to have largely disappeared, the three runs allowed by Vasquez and Luis Arraez, proved to be too much for the Padres to overcome. San Diego dropped the series opener to San Francisco, 3-2. Arraez was the offensive leader for the Giants with two doubles and two runs scored. Merrill was the only offense for the Padres until the top of the ninth inning. He finished the night 2-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI. Ramon Laureano hit a solo home run to lead off the top of the ninth inning to make the score, 3-2 but Fernando Tatis struck out for the third time in the game, Merrill grounded out and Manny Machado struck out on a check swing the end the game. Merrill and Laureano combined for three hits, which were the only hits in the game for San Diego. The Padres did not draw a walk and had 10 strikeouts in the game. San Diego will try to bounce back with a win in the second game of the series at 6:45 p.m.
Padres News:
It’s always hard to say goodbye, but Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball thinks that is exactly what the Padres should do with Nick Castellanos. The veteran was brought in to slug, but he has not been able to get going offensively and San Diego may not have time to wait.
The Padres salvaged their series against the Chicago White Sox with a win in the final game at Petco Park. Griffin Canning started the game and although he did not get a decision, his performance was one of the highlights of the week according to Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball.
The Padres added Canning to their rotation on Sunday and Luca Giolito continues to build up in the minors before coming to the big-league team. AJ Cassavell of Padres.com believes they can and should do more.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - MAY 04: Carter Jensen #22 of the Kansas City Royals signals he was safe after scoring as Tanner Bibee #28 of the Cleveland Guardians gestures in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium on May 04, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Yesterday’s first game in Kansas City was… not good.
Tanner Bibee had a horrible inning. Matt Festa gave up a bomb. Travis Bazzana and Brayan Rocchio had bad errors. And José Ramírez is still mired in an early season funk. If the top of your lineup goes 2-24 and those two hits are singles, you’re probably gonna lose.
The Guardians will now face lefties Noah Cameron and Cole Ragans, both of whom have been struggling, to see if they can cool off the Royals who have won 8 of 10.
Tarik Skubal of the Tigers has loose bodies in his elbow and so looks likely for an August return from surgery at best. The Royals and Guardians will look to get some momentum going in that intervening time. But, every baseball fan knows that “there but for the grace of the baseball gods go we” when it comes to pitching injuries.
Gavin Williams will try to do the ace thing and snap the Guardians two-game losing streak tonight
AROUND MLB:
The White Sox beat the Angels and the Tigers lost to the Red Sox.
Apr 29, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Ildemaro Vargas (6) celebrates in the dugout after Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado’s (28) (not pictured) home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in the fifth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
Vargas, who just saw his 27-game hitting streak end over the weekend, has been on a tear this season.
Over 22 games in April, Vargas slashed .372/.393/.663 with a 1.056 OPS. He recorded 32 hits (five home runs), 19 RBIs and three walks to 11 strikeouts. He was easily one of Arizona’s biggest standouts a month into the season.
Keeping Santana in the minor league system is not an option for Arizona at this stage of his career. He is obviously out of options at age 40, and he’s not going to be a player the team is quick to DFA based on an eight-game sample size, either. His defense and veteran presence in the clubhouse are both valuable, as much as fans or observers may not be able to tangibly measure that type of impact.
Santana will get playing time when he’s healthy, and that reality is inevitable. Ultimately, Santana playing and hitting well would benefit the D-backs, but the cost of reducing two other productive players’ playing time may not be worth the offensive production Santana can still provide.
Frontloading an inning or two from a relief pitcher before allowing the starter to throw bulk frames could allow the D-backs to get their starter past the fifth or sixth inning more frequently, and could, in theory, allow the offense to get set up with an initial lead.
Because for as comeback-reliant as Arizona has been in recent seasons, it’s still no easy task to string together patient, thorough at-bats when staring down a multi-run deficit.
Granted, utilizing an opener is not necessarily an effective method when it comes to avoiding excessive bullpen taxation, but it might lead to better in-game situations and set up the offense with more favorable scores.
“Seeing that tribute hit home, because he loved the Yankees – he loved this team, he loved this franchise, he loved the fans,” Judge said. “To do that there in the first, I was chuckling around the bases, thinking about what he was probably saying.”
Michael Kay and Suzyn Waldman laid bouquets across home plate before first pitch as both teams observed a moment of silence for Sterling, who passed away on Monday at 87.
After the final out, a recording of Sterling’s signature “Yankees win, theeee Yankees win!” call was played. Judge said he hopes to see that continue as a permanent stadium tradition.
“If you look at all of the great players, they tend to lean out over time,” Angels general manager Perry Minasian said. “Freddie Freeman, David Ortiz, a lot of guys.”
Trout changed his workout program, an adjustment that has carried into the 2026 regular season. In the past, he would do an upper-body workout twice a week, a lower-body regimen twice a week, and then take Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday off. Instead, he’s working out daily, but sometimes to activate his physiology instead of lifting heavier weights — he might do as few as eight reps of the same exercise and call it a day.
Trout hired a nutritionist and focused on eating less junk food on the couch before he goes to sleep, and along the way, his weight dropped to 230 pounds, which is about 8-to-10 pounds less than in previous seasons. He noticed an immediate difference late in the winter with how his legs and knees felt. As spring training games started, Trout had a goal to get back to a sprint speed of 30 feet per second — a target he hit a couple of times.
There are no “good” injuries in baseball. Losing a player to the IL is never a fun time. But there’s still a relative hierarchy – not every injury is an equally big bummer. On Monday, we got one of those big bummers. The Tigers placed Tarik Skubal, the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner, on the injured list. He’s slated to undergo surgery to remove loose bodies in his pitching elbow, as Evan Woodbery of MLive first reported.
Skubal had dealt with occasional pains in his arm throughout the season, as The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen reported. In his start last Wednesday, Skubal grimaced and grabbed his elbow in the seventh inning, sending a bevy of concerned Tigers staffers to the mound. He waved them off and struck out the side, but when his arm didn’t recover as much as expected in the aftermath of that start, the team had imaging done, revealing the need for surgery. This injury could alter the balance of power in the AL Central this year. More than that, it could change the trajectory of Skubal’s career. So let’s walk through the implications for the team, league, and player as we try to make sense of this unfortunate bit of news.
The White Sox and outfielder Randal Grichuk are in agreement on a major league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Sox will need to make corresponding moves to open space for the Paragon Sports International client on the active and 40-man rosters.
Grichuk elected free agency just three days ago after being designated for assignment by the Yankees. The 34-year-old had broken camp on a minor league contract to work in a short side platoon role. He was essentially the last man on Aaron Boone’s bench and took more than two-thirds of his 33 plate appearances versus lefty pitching.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MAY 04: Tucker, the Seattle Mariners clubhouse dog, plays during batting practice before the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Atlanta Braves at T-Mobile Park on May 04, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A combination of day games and morning news gave me a brief, impromptu break, but I’m back.
Before this season started, I thought the Braves might need to operate more like their 2019-2021 lot in life (nothing is guaranteed) than their 2022-2025, “Our roster is good enough to do whatever” framework. The Braves have done their best to make a mockery of that thought, as they have baseball’s best record and run differential, and can still avoid losing a single series if they win the next two in Seattle.
For the season, the biggest chase is a playoff spot. Then, we can talk about winning the division. If that’s secure, I guess the next thing to think about is a first-round bye. And then we’re really just talking best record in MLB.
The Braves currently have playoff odds of 95 percent. Seven teams have increased their odds more over the course of the season so far, but only the Yankees started in a similar place and have increased their odds more than the Braves. Basically, it’s possible that the Braves will still be in for a fight just to grab a playoff spot, but I’m not sure it’s that likely unless there’s another multifaceted collapse in terms of both injuries and approach.
The Braves currently have the third-highest division odds, and no team has gained more in this regard. Those division odds are about 83 percent right now, so again, I don’t think it’s unrealistic at all to say their fight will in the end, be for the division, but you could also set your sights higher.
They have the third-highest odds of a bye, but second in the NL — i.e., someone would have to supplant them from the field, aside from the Dodgers. This could be the most interesting “race” down the stretch… if everything goes okay for the Braves going forward.
With the wins they have banked, they now project for the third-most wins in MLB as a central estimate. If everything goes right, maybe this is a “race” where they either lead the rest of the way with excitement, or they try to chase down, say, the Dodgers.
Which of these do you think will be the story down the stretch — say, in late August?
Michael Conforto has been an afterthought for most of this Cubs season.
The team didn’t sign him until late February. He got some playing time early on because of the injury to Seiya Suzuki, but since Suzuki’s return April 10, Conforto has played in just 10 games, starting just four of those. He didn’t play at all in the weekend series against the Diamondbacks.
Then Craig Counsell sent him up to bat in the bottom of the ninth Monday for Matt Shaw. Shaw had pinch-run for Moisés Ballesteros in the eighth, and what I was thinking in that tie-game situation was, “Well, if Conforto gets on, they’ll have to run Nicky Lopez for him.”
Conforto took care of that potential issue by smashing a walk-off home run into the left-field bleachers, giving the Cubs their sixth consecutive win and 12th straight at Wrigley Field, 5-4 over the Reds.
Let’s rewind to the beginning of this back-and-forth affair.
Late Monday morning, the Cubs moved the starting time of this game up 30 minutes to 6:10 p.m. CT in anticipation of some rain and storms that were supposed to hit around 9 p.m. Instead, it started raining just about 6:10, the rain lasting an hour, so the game wound up starting at 7:50. Give the Cubs credit for the attempt, anyway. The sun came out as the rain was ending, producing these beautiful views:
Edward Cabrera got in trouble in the first two innings with hits and walks, but squeezed out of both jams. Then he served up a home-run ball to JJ Bleday leading off the second, and in the third issued a two-out walk. That was followed by Ke’Bryan Hayes smashing one out of the yard to give the Reds a 3-0 lead.
The Cubs couldn’t do anything with Reds rookie right-hander Chase Petty over the first three innings, with just a double by Alex Bregman in the first and single by Nico Hoerner over that time.
An annoying little rainshower parked itself over Wrigley Field in the fourth. That, entirely coincidentally, was when the Cubs rallied. Bregman led off with a walk and Ian Happ also drew a base on balls.
That was the longest Cubs home run of 2026 to date, and the sixth-longest by anyone this year. As you can see at that link, Suzuki also had the previous longest Cubs homer this year (441 feet on April 21 vs. the Phillies). Another note on the home-run distance (Bluesky link):
And one last note on Suzuki’s homer from BCB’s JohnW53:
Suzuki’s home run was the Cubs’ seventh this season with two on base, among 45 total homers — 15.6 percent. That is significantly higher than their final percentage in each of their five previous seasons:
2025: 27 of 223 — 12.1 2024: 19 of 170 — 11.2 2023: 15 of 196 — 7.7 2022: 12 of 159 — 7.5 2021: 17 of 210 — 8.1
The rain stopped, this time for good, and Cabrera then pulled off a nice play in the fifth. With one out, Elly De La Cruz singled. Cabrera picked him off [VIDEO].
The play went to review, but as you can see, De La Cruz was clearly out. In the sixth, Cabrera got some help from his defense — this slick stop by Michael Busch [VIDEO].
Cabrera’s three runs in six innings was the Cubs’ 15th quality start in their 35 games. They began the day tied with the Pirates for seventh most QS. Dodgers had 21; Braves and Royals, 17; and Mariners, Tigers and Yankees, 16.
Hoby Milner and Phil Maton threw a scoreless seventh, with Maton entering to throw to Sal Stewart after Milner walked De La Cruz with two out. Maton, who has pitched much better since his return from the IL, got Stewart to ground out to end the inning.
The Cubs, though, could not score in the fifth, sixth or seventh, and then Ben Brown gave up a run in the eighth. Uncharacteristically a bit wild, Brown walked Nathaniel Lowe leading off the inning. Leadoff walks, as most managers will tell you, are never good. The Reds sent Blake Dunn in to run for Lowe, and Dunn immediately stole second. That was important, as Spencer Steer’s single scored Dunn to give the Reds a 4-3 lead.
The Cubs had a good scoring chance in the eighth. Ballesteros led off with a walk and, as noted earlier, Shaw ran for him. Shaw was immediately erased on a force play by Bregman. A wild pitch moved Bregman to second and after Happ struck out, Suzuki ran a 3-1 count before being intentionally passed. Busch walked to load the bases, but Carson Kelly also struck out, ending the inning.
Ryan Rolison, who’s had an up-and-down year for the Cubs so far, was definitely “up” in this game. He struck out all three Reds he faced in the top of the ninth, throwing 14 pitches.
As you can see in the clip, Dane Myers almost made a spectacular catch against the ivy, but the ball went in and out of his glove, and PCA raced around the bases, safe easily at third. A note on the triple:
For Conforto, it was his first career walk-off home run. That entire ninth inning was something. Triples are perhaps the most exciting play in baseball, and PCA running the bases is always fun to watch. The walk-off homer wakes up and excites a crowd no matter who hits it. I’m really happy for Conforto, who has settled very well into his bench role on this team — now batting .323/.436/.548. It’s only 39 plate appearances for Conforto, but he has definitely made important contributions.
This was the first game of the season in which the Cubs erased two deficits. They had erased one in 12 earlier games. They are 10-3 when they have erased at least one. They lost the first two, won eight in a row, lost last Monday at San Diego, then won Sunday and tonight.
I have written this before and I’m going to say it again: There is something special about this team. Every single player on the roster has made significant contributions to winning. That, I believe, is the mark of a really good team. They all pick each other up — and in this team’s case, even in the face of major pitching injuries. The season to date has been really enjoyable. Let’s hope that continues … all the way through October.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this recap, this was the Cubs’ sixth win in a row. They did not win six in a row all of last year. Now they have two streaks at least that long in 2026 — and we are only 35 games into the season.
Last note: The Cubs are on a 16-3 run since April 14, the best record in MLB in that span, and have scored the most runs over that period, 117 (6.2 per game). They’ve allowed 78 runs over the 19 games, or 4.1 per game.
The Cubs and Reds meet again at Wrigley Field Tuesday evening. Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs and Andrew Abbott goes for Cincinnati. Game time is 6:40 p.m. CT (this time for sure, it will be cool but dry this evening) and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 10: Tatsuya Imai #45 of the Houston Astros delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 10, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jack Compton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With apologies to Shohei Ohtani and the faithful attending tonight’s contest at Daikin Park, the more significant season barometer will actually be registered approximately 23 miles southwest this evening when the Space Cowboys take the field against the Albuquerque Isotopes at Constellation Field.
The likes of Josh Hader, Nate Pearson, & Tatsuya Imai are each expected in the mix, returning to action and not a moment too soon. For Imai in particular, getting “comfortable” a few days prior to his 28th birthday is paramount in Houston’s ability to steadily climb the A.L. West standings.
In large measure, the divisional crown will not be measured against Ohtani’s “Unicorn” flashes, but rather, against its rivals within. Control the division, and control your destiny.
In May alone, the Astros have 11 combined games against the Mariners and Rangers. The final week of the regular season concludes with a 6 game road swing against Seattle and those pesky A’s.
Show of hands if you thought by the third homestand that Spencer Arrighetti would have 3 more wins on the year than ace Hunter Brown. Each year, there are surprises. Remember the start Tyler Mahle had a year ago with the Rangers? He finished last April with an ERA of 0.68.
Maybe even a “Spencer” (of a different variety), recall Schwellenbach who opened with the Braves allowing only a single run to be scored during the course of 20 innings? Sugar Land may play as significant of a role in the “resist the rebuild” movement as any. Barring a mega in-season trade, the Astros are a glorified mash unit, waiting to heal and deal.
While the calls for Espada to be removed have a foreboding undertone, who’s available on the managerial docket that would galvanize the fan base and reverse course? Dave Martinez? Skip Schumaker? Yawn.
I’d rather have Julia Morales if we’re going that route, at least she knows the clubhouse and has a grasp on the organizational pulse.
The Astros are far from dead and buried. In fact, they might be ripe for an in-season trade. You know the history. Verlander, Greinke, Bagwell, Carlos Beltran in 2004 or even Randy Johnson in 1998.
As the Brewers continue to occupy 4th place in their division, the tantalizing possibility of Freddy Peralta or Brandon Woodruff linger in the air.
May 2, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Blaze Alexander (23) reacts after a called throw strike was confirmed during the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
The Orioles went into New York this past Friday trying to prove they were better than their middling record. Instead, they walked away on the wrong end of a four-game sweep, looking more like a team trying to avoid a last-place finish than one contending for a playoff spot.
Each of the four losses in New York followed a similar script. The O’s always fell behind early, as they were outscored 14-2 in the first three innings across the four games. And every time we saw the Orioles’ bats shrink under the pressure of that early hole. The Baltimore bats put up 37 Ks while going 4-for-27 with runners in scoring position.
Rough opening frames from Oriole starters are nothing new. A month ago, I wrote about how terrible 2nd innings plagued the O’s over their first ten games. Since then, it hasn’t gotten any better. Heading into their final game against the Yankees, the Orioles had a 4.59 ERA in innings 1-3 (compared to the league average of 4.03). The 2nd inning is still their biggest downfall, as they have a league-worst 7.68 ERA and 1.015 opponent OPS. Of Orioles starters to make 3+ starts this year, only Trevor Rogers has a 2nd-inning ERA below 5.00.
These struggles to open games are something the O’s will have to improve if they want to undo the damage of another disappointing start to the season. Some of that improvement should come from positive regression; the O’s have an opposing BABIP of .314, whereas the league average is .285. However, much of the improvement will have to come from better execution—the likes of which we expected but have rarely seen from Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt.
However, these struggles from the starters have exposed a flaw in the construction of this lineup. Mike Elias and the rest of the front office built this offense to be a battering ram, the type of overwhelming force that gets the Orioles ahead, keeps them ahead, and papers over any deficiencies in the rotation.
The problem with this particular battering ram is that it comes with a lot of swing and miss. Of the 10 qualified Orioles hitters, seven have a swing and miss rate below the 50th-percentile, with Jeremiah Jackson, Coby Mayo, Blaze Alexander and Samuel Basallo all below the 30th percentile. The strikeout rates aren’t any better. Six of the 10 Orioles’ qualified hitters rank in the 40th percentile or below in strikeout rate, with Gunnar Henderson sitting down at the eighth percentile with a 31.4% K rate.
The profile of this offense shouldn’t come as a surprise. Pete Alonso, even for all his offensive output, has always had a fair amount of swing-and-miss in his game—as evidenced by his career average of 159 Ks per 162 games. We’ve seen similar levels of aggression from Gunnar throughout his Oriole career, whose career 23.6% strikeout rate is just a tick above Alonso’s. Adding another big-time power hitter like Samuel Basallo to the lineup was always likely to bring more whiffs as well. It is simply the price you pay for having guys with 30+ HR potential in your lineup.
Having a high-slugging, high-strikeout lineup isn’t a problem in and of itself. The problem arises when you ask those sluggers to try and methodically chip away at a deficit and help the Orioles get back into game they’re trailing. Heading into the series finale in New York, the O’s were third in baseball with 510 ABs when behind. In those situations, they rank 20th in batting average, 22nd in on-base percentage and dead last with 157 strikeouts.
Through this season’s first 35 games, the O’s have only had two hitters who have consistently shown the patience needed to claw yourself out of early holes. Taylor Ward and Adley Rutschman area the only Orioles who are above average in both strikeout rate and whiff rate this season. They go about it different ways, with Ward seeing the most pitches of any Oriole and leading baseball with a miniscule 10.9% chase rate. Adley is a little less selective, but makes up for it by making contact on damn near everything he swings at—as evidence by his 12.2% swing-and-miss rate.
The Orioles have built the whole offensive ethos of their franchise on the value of the three-run home run. And yet, too often, it feels like everyone in the lineup wants to be the guy to hit the Weaver and not enough players want to be the guys on base. The Orioles aren’t great at playing station-to-station baseball, as seen by the fact that 48% of their RBIs come via the long ball (majoe league average is 41.8%). And yet, it is that type of station-to-station approach that you need if you want to score come-from-behind victories.
The O’s have 15 more games this month against current Top 5 teams in the AL—including nine against the Yankees and Rays. Which means they have at least 15 more changes to prove that the double disfunction of their starting staff and lineup is more fluke than reality. But just like Colton Cowser against non-fastballs, this team has a clear flaw that so far has doomed them to a massively underwhelming start to the 2026 season.
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - MAY 03: Clay Holmes #35 of the New York Mets is congratulated in the dugout after he was pulled in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 3, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Though the Mets have not been bitten nearly as severely by the injury bug on the pitching side of things, they have struggled to find answers outside of the top 3 in their rotation. Clay Holmes has dazzled and Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean have been mostly solid, but all of Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea have been ineffective. Christian Scott has returned to the big leagues to replace Senga in the rotation and had a nightmarish first start, but rebounded in his next outing. The bullpen has been a mixed bag, but trending positive with Tobias Myers continuing to provide consistent quality in long relief and Carl Edwards Jr. joining him in that role. Brooks Raley continues to be outstanding and both Luke Weaver and Devin Williams have had hiccups over the past two weeks, but have had more good outings than bad ones.
Player
Last week
This week
Huascar Brazobán, RHP
Carl Edwards Jr., RHP
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Clay Holmes, RHP
Craig Kimbrel, RHP
Sean Manaea, LHP
Nolan McLean, RHP
Tobias Myers, RHP
Freddy Peralta, RHP
David Peterson, RHP
Brooks Raley, LHP
Christian Scott, RHP
Kodai Senga, RHP
Austin Warren, RHP
Luke Weaver, RHP
Devin Williams, RHP
We’ll start with Kodai Senga, who has been so bad, that he likely wasn’t making his next start whether he was injured or not. He is now on the injured list with lumbar spinal inflammation and that is the only way he avoided a poop emoji. And it’s probably the only way he avoided another potential stint in the minor leagues too. Christian Scott, back from missing all of 2025 due to Tommy John surgery, has replaced Senga in the rotation. Nerves got the better of Scott in his first start against the Twins in which he issued five walks in just 1 1/3 innings. With the Mets in the position they are in, Carlos Mendoza pulled the plug early while the game was still in striking distance. It’s honestly a miracle Scott only gave up one run. But he looked much better in his outing in Anaheim in which he made one mistake to Jorge Soler, but otherwise pitched well. His defense didn’t do him any favors and ultimately he yielded three runs, only two of which were earned, in five innings of work. Most importantly, he struck out eight batters and walked none—a complete 180 from his first start.
In relief of Scott on Friday, the bullpen was perfect, paving the way for the comeback victory by the Mets. Huascar Brazobán got the win in that game for a scoreless sixth inning of work. Brazobán has been consistently excellent all season and though it wasn’t a clean sheet for him this time, the good outings outweighed the bad ones. One of those bad ones also came in relief of Scott in his abbreviated start against the Twins; Brazobán gave up a game-tying grand slam to Ryan Jeffers, but he inherited the bases loaded situation. And the Mets came back to win the game. He also gave up a run in the Game 1 loss to the Rockies last weekend over two innings of work. But he is spotless so far in the month of May. Carlos Mendoza has consistently turned to Brazobán with inherited runners rather than a clean inning, where he is more successful. But more often than not, he still gets the job done.
Speaking of guys who have been getting the job done, Brooks Raley had a clean sheet this week across five appearances and 4 2/3 innings of work. He earned his fifth hold of the season in relief of Scott on Friday with a scoreless seventh and sealed yesterday’s win with a scoreless ninth. He pitched a scoreless inning apiece in two losses—one to the Rockies and one to the Nationals. He also pitched 2/3 of an inning in last Wednesday’s 3-2 victory over the Twins that ended the legendary losing streak and got into a bit of a jam, but none of those runners would come around to score.
It was Luke Weaver who helped Raley escape that jam, getting the key final out of the eighth after issuing a walk to load the bases. Weaver came back out for the ninth as well and struck out three batters to pitch a scoreless inning and snap the Mets’ 12-game losing streak, earning a win in the process. Weaver bookended this 12-game span with two strong outings in the Angels series over the weekend. In yesterday’s game, he formed the bridge between Clay Holmes and Brooks Raley with 1 1/3 scoreless innings and in Friday’s win, he pitched a 1-2-3 eighth with two strikeouts. Weaver only had one bad outing in the past couple of weeks, but it was a costly one. He gave up a go-ahead two-run homer to CJ Abrams on Thursday, which ended up costing the Mets the game and the series.
Similarly, Devin Williams had a strong couple of weeks outside of one extremely costly outing. In the series opener against the Twins, Williams blew a save, leading to the Mets’ 12th straight loss in the most soul crushing way imaginable. But his outings did improve from there. After the Mets jumped back out ahead of the Twins in the rubber game last Thursday thanks to Bo Bichette’s clutch bases-clearing double, Williams came in the game with one out in the ninth and struck out the first batter he faced, but then allowed three straight hits to bring the Twins within two and put the tying run on base. But he held on to strike out the next batter to end the game. His other outings were less eventful. He pitched a scoreless inning against the Rockies and another against the Nationals—both games the Mets went on to lose, but not because of Williams. He then finally got a save opportunity again on Friday in Anaheim and pitched a 1-2-3 ninth inning to cap off that comeback victory.
Williams was not the only one to not distinguish himself in last Thursday’s game against the Twins. I already mentioned Scott’s terrible start and Brazobán giving up the grand slam, but three of the four runs that crossed the plate from Jeffers’ grand slam were charged to Craig Kimbrel, who loaded the bases on a couple of singles and a walk. Kimbrel pitched two scoreless innings after that—one in the series opener against the Nationals to help complete that shutout victory and a scoreless ninth inning in Anaheim on Saturday to help send that game to extras.
Tobias Myers also appeared in all three games Kimbrel appeared in. He immediately followed Scott last Thursday after he was unable to make it out of the second and pitched 2 1/3 innings, over which he gave up one unearned run and struck out three. Myers preceded Kimbrel in the series opener against the Nationals with two scoreless innings, contributing to the shutout. On Saturday Myers scattered three hits over 2 2/3 scoreless innings of work to cap off his clean sheet for this meter.
Austin Warren ended up taking the loss on Saturday for allowing the walk-off hit in the tenth. But Warren pitched a combined three scoreless innings across two outings before that, not allowing a baserunner in either outing and even striking out the side against the Twins after Devin Williams blew the save, leaving the bases loaded, leading to MVP chants being thrown his way.
Both that heroic effort and the walk-off loss came in relief of Nolan McLean, whose start in the Twins series played out like many of his other starts this season. He was basically unhittable early and then fatigued in the middle innings. But in the end, he logged another quality start, giving up three runs on five hits and striking out a whopping ten batters in 6 2/3 innings. McLean did not go as deep into the game in Saturday’s extra-inning loss. He lasted just four innings, over which he gave up three runs on six hits while striking out six and walking one. Still, even after that start, his season ERA starts with a 2.
The Mets’ best starting pitcher lately has not been McLean, but Clay Holmes, whose season ERA starts with a 1 and is among the best in baseball. He shut the Nationals out for six innings in that series opener, giving up just three hits with six strikeouts and one walk. He then followed that up with another sparkling performance on Sunday to help secure the series victory in Anaheim. He gave up just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings. That performance earned him his fourth win of the season and a well-deserved fireball for his cumulative body of work so far this season.
Freddy Peralta’s past two starts were good ones—they just happened to both be games the Mets lost, but that is much more the fault of the offense than of Peralta. He took the loss against the Rockies in the series opener, despite limiting the damage to just two runs on seven hits through 5 2/3 innings of work. He was even better against the Nationals, with just one of the three runs he surrendered being earned in six innings of work. He struck out 14 batters and walked 6 across the two outings.
Sean Manaea finished the game in relief of Peralta last Friday and allowed a pair of insurance runs to the Rockies, which turned out to be consequential as the Mets fell just one run shy of a comeback. Manaea did strike out seven batters in 3 1/3 innings in that outing though. But the real disaster for Manaea—and the reason he earned a poop emoji for this meter—came a few days later when the Nationals absolutely bludgeoned the Mets by a dozen runs. Six of the Nationals’ 14 runs were charged to Manaea.
Carl Edwards Jr., who used to pitch for the Nationals and was freshly called up, did mop-up duty in that game. After Manaea exited, Edwards Jr. pitched the final 2 2/3 innings of the game and was charged with one run on three hits. He struck out an impressive six batters in the outing. Edwards Jr. also pitched the bulk of long relief in Game 2 of last weekend’s doubleheader, started by Kodai Senga, in which the Mets were shut out by the Rockies. Edwards Jr. pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts.
Seven of the Nationals’ runs in Wednesday’s beatdown were charged to David Peterson, who started that game and fell to 0-4 on the season with his disastrous performance. His other outing was less of a disaster; he appeared in long relief after Myers in the rubber game against the Twins and was charged with one run on four hits in 3 1/3 innings, earning his first hold of the season. Unfortunately for Peterson, who seems to vastly prefer being in the rotation, he’s had more success out of the bullpen so far this year and will likely remain there for the time being.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 18: Felix Reyes #29 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after flying out to center field for the final out in the fourth inning against the Atlanta Brave at Citizens Bank Park on April 18, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Heather Barry/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It was a bit of a surprise when the Phillies promoted Felix Reyes to the majors on April 18th. It was a major surprise when he batted cleanup in his first ever MLB game. It was downright shocking that he took Chris Sale deep in his first at bat.
However, everything that’s happened since is not too much of a surprise.
Reyes earned his call up by hitting .333 with 6 home runs through his first 18 games in Triple-A this season. But at the same time, he had an eye-popping 51.9% outside the zone swing rate coupled with a 16.1% whiff rate. That chase rate is Reyes’ biggest weakness and it’s now being exploited to a major degree in the majors.
Reyes has swung at 55.6% of pitches he’s seen outside of the strike zone through his first eight MLB games. That would be far and away the highest in MLB if Reyes qualified, as the current leader is the Rockies Ezequial Tovar with a 48% rate. Since that first at-bat, Reyes is 3-27 (.111) with two singles and a double. He’s struck out 7 times and has yet to draw a walk. He provided a nice spark in one game but has been wholly ineffective since and has looked overmatched at times.
If the Phillies were to decide to option Reyes back to the minor leagues, the internal options to replace him aren’t very enticing. The first choice would be Otto Kemp, the man who was demoted to allow Reyes to come up in the first place. Kemp started the year 2-20 with 9 strikeouts before being sent to Triple-A. Since his demotion, Kemp is hitting .237 with a .625 OPS in 12 games with the Iron Pigs.
Another option would be Bryan De La Cruz who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in November. De La Cruz has played 32 games with Lehigh Valley and is hitting .222 with a .672 OPS. He would need to be added to the 40-man roster if the Phillies were to decide to promote him to the majors. As of right now, the Phillies do have one spot remaining on the 40-man that could theoretically be used on De La Cruz. He also has an opt-out clause in his contract that can be triggered to make him a free agent at some point in the next couple of months if he does not make the roster.
Looking outside the organization, there’s players such as Mark Canha and Randall Grichuk that the team could take a flier on. Obviously, there are not many options when it comes to finding help for your roster in early May.
So, is it time to end the Félix Reyes experiment? If so, who should take his spot on the Phillies bench?
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - NOVEMBER 01: Jonah Heim #28 of the Texas Rangers celebrates after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-0 in Game Five to win the World Series at Chase Field on November 01, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning.
MLB dot com’s Benjamin Rosenberg writes that the Texas Rangers are getting it done in relief without having a lot of strikeouts or flamethrowers.
Matt Snyder writes that with Tarik Skubal out, the AL Cy Young race is wide open with Jacob deGrom among the new favorites.
And, the DMN notes that former Rangers World Series catcher Jonah Heim has begun his journeyman era by (sort of) going back to where it began as he rejoins the Athletics no longer in Oakland.
Dinger Tuesday and here, and we need a big day in a bad way. Today's looks are heavily factoring in familiarity, which isn't usually priced in for MLB player props.
Aaron Judge will be aided by a great hitting setting, and righties are hitting Jacob deGrom this year. Meanwhile, Juan Soto needs to go off in Coors and should get that coveted fifth plate appearance because of his move to the leadoff spot.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 5.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Aaron Judge
+240
Juan Soto
+344
Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+240)
The New York Yankees just saw Jacob deGrom one start ago, and that familiarity won’t be fully priced into their HR lines. Add in 17-mph winds blowing out to left, and the conditions only improve. It’s not every day you get +EV on Aaron Judge at +240, but that’s what the Covers projections show.
At first look, he has a split disadvantage vs. deGrom, but the Texas Rangers starter is much tougher on lefties. Right-handed hitters are hitting .324 vs. him compared to .139 vs. LHHs.
The fair price sits closer to +200. Lefty bats like Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+470), Trent Grisham (+390), and Ben Rice (+350) also project as +EV, but I want a right-handed slugger, and the Yankees have the best one projecting for 0.37 HRs today
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: YES, Rangers Sports Network
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+344)
Michael Lorenzen is the best pitcher to fade today, and his poor numbers are legit.
Of all starters on the slate, his BlastContact% ranks among the worst, and his HR/FB rate is also near the bottom of the league. He’s actually giving up more homers on the road than at Coors, but that should flip sooner rather than later.
Only David Peterson and Carmen Mlodzinski have allowed harder contact this year.
Juan Soto is hitting leadoff and gets the boost of extra plate appearances. He’s +344 to go deep, and his bat-tracking numbers (swing speed, square-up%) rank in the Top 10 over the last 10 days. He just saw Lorenzen back on April 24th, and that familiarity should carry over.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SNY
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 9-57, -9.9u units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
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Cristopher Sanchez
Jacob deGrom
Drake Baldwin
Aaron Judge
Juan Soto