Category: Baseball

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays battle for a World Series title, Chicago’s struggles with runners in scoring position reveal an offensive weakness the White Sox must address.

The Rays spent six months making runners in scoring position (RISP) a strength. On Friday night, six missed opportunities helped turn their 2026 World Series opener into a loss.

Tampa Bay went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position against the Brewers, falling 3-2 despite advancing the tying run 90 feet from home in the ninth inning. A team that led Major League Baseball with a .283 batting average in those situations suddenly found itself searching for one more productive swing.

“We had traffic on the bases pretty much all night,” Rays shortstop Taylor Walls told MLB.com. “But [we] weren’t able to get that big hit, that timely hit, the double with a runner on first or a single with runners in scoring position.”

More than 1,200 miles away, the White Sox could recognize the frustration.

Chicago’s postseason ended against Cleveland with a different statistical problem but a similar consequence: Runners never reached home plate.

The White Sox hit .243 with RISP during the regular season, ranking 22nd in the majors. They struck out 397 times in 1,361 official at-bats in those situations, a 29.2% K-rate.

By comparison, Tampa Bay hit .283 with RISP, while Milwaukee followed at .276. Both clubs combined consistent contact with aggressive baserunning, providing a different offensive model than Chicago’s power-oriented lineup.

The problem became particularly evident during the American League Division Series.

Although the White Sox hit .275 with runners in scoring position across seven postseason games, they struck out 21 times in 51 at-bats with RISP. Cleveland pitchers struck out 75 Chicago hitters during the five-game ALDS, including an all-time record of 21 in the decisive Game 5.

Manager Will Venable acknowledged that the problem extended beyond chasing pitches outside the strike zone, to misses in the zone, and his assessment revealed a fundamental challenge: Against elite pitching, even hitters making reasonable swing decisions can struggle to produce contact.

That becomes particularly costly with a runner on third and fewer than two outs, as a sacrifice fly or a well-placed ground ball can score a run without a hit. A strikeout, however, leaves the runner exactly where he started.

Modern hitting philosophies emphasize power, patience and avoiding unnecessary outs. Those principles have merit, but postseason baseball frequently demands a more situational approach.

Milwaukee demonstrated that on Friday.

Christian Yelich drove home Jackson Chourio with a first-inning triple, William Contreras followed with an RBI single, and Chourio added a two-out RBI single in the seventh.

The Brewers went 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position, but those hits helped secure a one-run victory.

Milwaukee scored 832 runs during the regular season despite hitting only 154 home runs. Chicago hit 211 homers but scored 776 runs. The Brewers also stole 162 bases compared with Chicago’s 93, demonstrating another way to create offensive pressure.

Those differences suggest the White Sox do not necessarily need to abandon power. They need a more balanced offensive approach.

That balance has been an organizational question throughout the past decade, as Chicago has cycled through rebuilding rosters, veteran lineups and postseason contenders. The 2026 results provide another reason to examine whether the club has consistently struggled to convert scoring opportunities.

For players such as Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Miguel Vargas, improvement must include producing quality plate appearances against elite pitching. Montgomery’s power remains valuable, but the White Sox need consistent contact throughout the lineup.

Free agency could provide additional options.

Luis Arráez offers a contact-oriented offensive profile, while potential free agents Bo Bichette, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki represent different combinations of hitting ability and overall production.Simply acquiring a hitter with a high RISP average, however, would not guarantee improvement. 

Tampa Bay’s World Series opener demonstrated that even baseball’s most productive situational hitters can struggle when opportunities arise.

Rays manager Kevin Cash remained confident despite the loss.

“This is an extremely confident group,” Cash said. “They’re going to be fine.”

Chicago’s challenge is finding that same confidence while developing the offensive consistency needed to advance deeper into October.

The White Sox proved they could hit enough home runs to reach the postseason. Cleveland demonstrated that power alone was not enough to survive it.

And as Milwaukee showed Friday, sometimes the difference between winning and losing isn’t the ball that leaves the park. It’s the one that brings the runner home.

I think its important when evaluating front office performance to also evaluate the moves the team could’ve made but chose not to just as much as you evaluate the deals they made. Last December, one of the major storylines of the entire MLB offseason was whether or not the Arizona Diamondbacks were going to trade Ketel Marte. Marte was just wrapping up another typical season for himself in which he created a lot of value, but was also a major source of off the field distraction. The narrative at the time was that they were ‘listening’ on Ketel Marte but not actively trying to move him. Even with his pending 10 and 5 rights that were set to vest at the beginning of the 2026 season in April. This led to plenty of speculation by the industry as to whether he might be moved and where he might end up.

The Boston Red Sox seemed to ultimately get the closest and according to Alex Speier at the Boston Globein February of 2026, the Red Sox were heavily interested and had offered a package of Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias for Marte. According to Speier, the Dbacks insisted that Marcelo Mayer be included in the deal and the Red Sox refused. That would effectively seal Marte’s fate with the Dbacks for 2026 and potentially beyond. But what would this team have looked like if Hazen and co hadn’t been so insistent on Marcelo Mayer and just said yes to Tolle and Arias for Marte? This article will rewind the clock and examine just that.

In fairness, I need to put the disclaimer here that none of the results are guaranteed on the new teams because there are a ton of factors that dictate player performance. I also don’t have a crystal ball, so for the purposes of this exercise lets just assume the players had the same 2026 regardless of what team they were on. Also in fairness to Mike Hazen, it is easy to play captain hindsight. It is much harder to make the moves in the moment. However for entertainment purposes only, lets revisit the trade that almost was and analyze the ripple effects.

Trade: Bos Recieves: Ketel Marte Ari Recieves: Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias.

The Dbacks acquire the fastball heavy prospect Payton Tolle and they finally get the bat missing controllable arm they have coveted. They also would acquire a top middle infield prospect that would’ve likely started the season in Amarillo and got promoted to Reno and honestly could’ve pushed for some big league time, however for the purposes of this exercise lets assume Arias would’ve spent the season in the minors and not contributed any major league value.

In a corresponding move, Ari signs 3B Alex Bregman 5yr $175 million

If the Dbacks traded Marte, it is widely speculated that they would’ve signed Alex Bregman. There was a lot of reporting that Bregman wanted to play for the Dbacks and live where he played year round similar to the Corbin Burnes situation. Especially if the Dbacks had traded Ketel Marte as reported by Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic For the purposes of this exercise lets assume the exact same contract only its entirely likely he wouldve came at a slightly cheaper rate. I also think its not just a coincidence that the day after Arizona acquired Nolan Arenado on 1/12, Bregman signed with the Cubs. In my opinion, he was clearly holding out for a deal with Arizona. So in this world, Dbacks trade Marte and to fill the gap in the middle of their lineup, they sign Alex Bregman.

Moves that then Would’ve Never Happened: Sign Zac Gallen and trade for Nolan Arenado

By signing Bregman and acquiring Tolle, I think its all but certain the Dbacks dont sign Zac Gallen and it likely they dont trade for Arenado although I suppose there is another world out there where Arenado reportedly was willing to play first base. We wont go there though for the purposes of this. So no Nado and no Gallen.

What Would’ve Been the Net Effect?

In fairness to Hazen and Co, this is a little hand wavey assuming that the Dbacks are able to get the same breakout out of Tolle that the Red Sox were. However it is also kind of offset by the breakout the Dbacks were able to get out of Arenado. But for the purposes of this exercise, lets assume the same production in 2026. The result? An additional 4.4 wins almost completely from acquiring Tolle and not signing Gallen. This is where it really hurts:

The Money

To add insult to injury, this version of the 2026 Dbacks roster would’ve likely been about 10-11 million cheaper than they were:

Here is what this would’ve looked like long term financially:

So essentially, the trade would’ve saved 10-11 million in 2026 and cost almost that same amount back for 2027.

Franklin Arias

In addition, this organization would also have a clear consensus top 100 prospect in Franklin Arias who is currently MLB Pipeline’s #2 prospect in all of baseball after the 20 year old SS had a steller 2026 batting .323 with 25 HR in 117 games. Arias has posted elite contact rates at all levels of the minor league’s to go along with some pop at a premium position. This would’ve also solved much of the ‘lack of impact talent’ label this farm system as a whole currently holds and given this team a SS or 2B option of the future with Ketel Marte gone.

Conclusion

I think its fair to assume this is likely a move Mike Hazen and co would want back. Especially considering you add 4 wins to this 2026 club and you likely have a 90 win playoff contender. In addition you also add long term stability to your starting rotation and middle infield at league minimum cost. Had this trade been made, you likely were playing baseball the past couple of weeks, and head into the 2027 season with the rotation anchored by a solid pairing of youth and experience in Burnes and Tolle. You also have Alex Bregman and his leadership coming off of a near 6 WAR season anchoring the middle of the order for years to come and the #2 prospect in all of baseball per MLB Pipeline heading into the offseason.

As I mentioned, there are a ton of variables that could’ve impacted performance one way or the other. Especially when you consider guys playing on different teams and the team dynamics changing. Its not as simple as adding and subtracting WAR in my opinion. We are also basing all of this on reporting from reputable outlets like the Boston Globe and The purposes of this analysis is purely an exercise to further evaluate the decision making of this organization and a fun little ‘what could’ve been’ experiment.

The Yankees knew that there was one face of Aaron Boone’s coaching staff who they could not risk getting away from them, and they made sure to handle it before his contract officially expired. Matt Blake, the team’s pitching coach since the 2020 campaign, has reportedly agreed to a three-year extension to remain with the team according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Heyman’s colleague Joel Sherman had reported yesterday that the two sides were working on a new deal, and with his current deal set to expire at the conclusion of this year’s World Series, the time was nearing to get this thing done.

Blake has transformed the Yankees’ pitching philosophy since entering the organization, having the reins handed to him to lead an analytical breakdown of their pitching staff that has led to significant success. This season Yankees pitchers had the best collective ERA in baseball with a 3.23 mark, ranked third with a 3.71 FIP, and collected the fifth most fWAR at 21.9. Any way you sliced it, their pitching was the MVP of the roster, and it was led by the presumptive Cy Young Award winner in Cam Schlitter. They were far from a one-man show though, for once having more starting pitching than the team knew what to do with despite dealing with a host of injuries, as Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodón all turned in fine seasons.

The biggest factor in Blake’s rise to the top of the organization has been his work with the lesser-known prospects and journeymen the team has cobbled together. Will Warren has turned into a dependable fifth starter who most teams would jump at the opportunity to slot into the middle of their rotation, and Ryan Weathers took a major leap this year when trusted with a role in the front five after being acquired last offseason. Meanwhile, the bullpen has continued to take on unknowns and spit out gems, this year seeing Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick form an unstoppable bridge to closer David Bednar after both entered the year as relative afterthoughts. The team has gotten similar leaps from relievers in the past, like Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver (who both served as the team’s closers in recent years), and reined in enough of Fernando Cruz’s wildness to make him an effective middle inning reliever until a UCL tear ended his season. Brian Cashman gets a lot of credit for finding the pieces of this staff out of thin air, but Blake’s role in leading the “pitching lab” has been just as crucial in developing their talent.

Blake now sits as one of the few men on the coaching staff with a secure position within the organization. His side of the roster was unquestionable in their dogged pursuit of title No. 28 this season, and overall has produced time and time again since Blake has arrived. The man above him doesn’t have that much security, with Boone entering the final year of his contract this season without an extension in front of him. The pitchers have bought into Blake’s direction wholeheartedly and the results have been plain to see — now the work begins on finding the next set of unheralded arms to transform.

Today marks Chris Colabello’s 43rd birthday.

The Blue Jays claimed Chris Colabello off waivers from the Twins before the 2015 season. During his two years with Minnesota, he posted a .214/.284/.364 line with 13 home runs in 114 games. Understandably, expectations were low for a 31-year-old first baseman/DH who hadn’t hit well enough to earn regular playing time.

Chris impressed in spring training. When Michael Saunders suffered a knee injury on a sprinkler head in Dunedin, the team suddenly needed outfield help. Dalton Pompey’s slow start and the Jays’ impatience led to Colabello getting the call-up in early May.

Colabello played the outfield with all the elegance of a statue—reminiscent of early Jays experiments with Otto Velez—but he found his swing at the plate. By the end of his first month, he was batting an impressive .368/.417/.568.

By late June, it was clear Chris’s bat couldn’t make up for his glove in the outfield, so he shifted to first base and DH. Justin Smoak, also new to the 2015 roster, wasn’t having a strong season, though his power was undeniable—when Smoak homered, it was never a cheap shot.

Unfortunately, the GameThreads devolved into endless debates about who should play first. For the first time, I found myself avoiding them. Chris nevertheless had an outstanding season, finishing at .321/.367/.520 with 15 home runs in 101 games. His defense limited his value—he posted a 0.7 bWAR.

He shined in the ALDS, hitting .375/.412/.688, but struggled in the ALCS, managing only .217/.250/.391.

We wondered if he could replicate his success. His .411 BABIP seemed unsustainable to many of us, but with more walks and fewer strikeouts, there was hope he could still produce solid numbers.

We never got to find out. Chris began the 2016 season in a slump, hitting just .069/.156/.225.

Then came the news of his positive PED test. With MLB’s improved testing, several players were caught that year, and Chris received an 80-game suspension. He claimed not to know how the substance entered his system and gave an emotional interview to Sportsnet. Personally, I’m skeptical of such claims—but who can say for sure? The slow start may have been because he knew the suspension was coming.

In 2017, he played in the minors for Cleveland and Milwaukee, hitting .254/.350/.395. He spent 2018 in Italy and 2019 in the independent leagues. I admire players who love the game enough to keep playing, even in the independents. He also played for Italy in the WBC in 2017 and played in Mexico for a season

Chris always seemed likable and was fun to watch (if a bit less so in the outfield). I hope things are going well for him.

Happy birthday, Chris. Wishing you all the best.

Before we begin looking ahead to 2027, OTM is looking back at 2026, highlighting some of the biggest, strangest, and most memorable moments of a memorable season. Today, we look back at the belated season debut of a new rotation mainstay.

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So much was made of Brayan Bello’s redemption arc — a spring demotion to Triple-A followed by a subsequent rebirth as a dominant bulk reliever — that many (including this writer) briefly forget that an even better starter actually began 2026 in Triple-A.

The 2026 Red Sox roster was notable for how awesome the rotation looked in March. It was rife with the presence of a recent Cy Young runner-up in Garrett Crochet, Bello, who was fresh off the World Baseball Classic, Ranger Suarez, who was an exciting addition to the top of the rotation from Philadelphia, another addition in Sonny Gray, and Connelly Early, who looked amazing even in defeat in 2025’s Wild Card Round at Yankee Stadium. That, of course, left a couple guys on the outside looking in, including Payton Tolle, who himself pitched in the waning moments of last season.

If there was any internal competition between the two young guns, it was manufactured if it existed at all. The duo took pictures together, were inseparable on broadcasts, and had nothing but praise for each other. Tolle, a towering lefty just like his newfound best friend and rotation-mate Early, had his four-seam fastball in spades. He also had one of the best call-up videos I have ever seen prior to his first start against eventual NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes on August 29 (featuring a WooSox manager he surely would never see again, right?)

While Tolle had his fastball, though, he lost ground to Early in the early going of each’s career with the amount of times he was taken over an outfield wall; 5 in 18 innings, to be exact, in comparison to Early avoiding that feat in his 19 innings. That was probably the defining factor in the decision to give Early his first Opening Day roster nod in what will, in all likelihood, become a successful career… in Washington, amongst other places, as Tolle, after a 2026 campaign that saw him notch 171 strikeouts and pitch to an ERA just a hair over 3, is a lock to capture his first Opening Day slot in 2027. So how did we get here? We can look at April 23 at Yankee Stadium as a pivotal point.

The Red Sox had just gotten a good 3 2/3 innings in relief out of Eduardo Rivera, who had never pitched higher than Double-A in his short professional career. Garrett Crochet was, to put it bluntly, not pitching well, but it would not be revealed until later in the week that he was actually dealing with shoulder inflammation that would place him on the Injured List for the remainder of the season. Thus, Alex Cora needed a starter for the third game at Yankee Stadium on Friday night on Apple TV, and who better than a guy who was mowing them down in Worcester to face Cam Schlittler?

The game started out as a duel. Tolle looked every bit up to the challenge. After three consecutive balls in the exact same spot to Amed Rosario, Tolle came back in the count. K. He then sat Aaron Judge down on four pitches. And that fastball would bite Ben Rice, clocking in at 98. He’d then get Giancarlo Stanton and Randal Grichuk. Five hitters, five strikeouts. Tolle was back, and he was here to stay. In fact, he’d not allow a baserunner until the fourth inning.

All told, Tolle would wrap up his night confidently, even with allowing a home run to Jazz Chisholm. His 3 up, 3 down in the sixth including two strikeouts, number 10 and number 11 on the night, finished his outing. It would be the most strikeouts a Red Sox pitcher had on the season until Sonny Gray tied it in Colorado two months later; Tolle would eventually have the title on the team with 14 against the Athletics. Sadly, Alex Cora made a few managing mishaps that would define the beginning of the 2026 season and would do him in. The signature tells were both in effect here, but one was no fault of his: the offense wouldn’t really support the good start out of Tolle outside of a Carlos Narvaez home run, and Cora’s part in the loss was calling on Greg Weissert with inherited runners (from Danny Coulombe) when there was plenty of evidence that those inherited runners would score. And score they did – the final score: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2.

The Yankees would complete the sweep against the Red Sox, take the season series, and end the Red Sox season some months later. That was Tolle’s best night for a couple of months, and some of his tells still existed. He still allowed home runs at a higher rate than most of the other rotation. But he went deep into games and certainly struck guys out. Every team wants a pitcher that gives them a real chance to win. After July 7, the team would be on the losing end of a Tolle start just twice in the regular season. The encouraging news, even with the fifth consecutive loss at Yankees Stadium, is that, on that fateful night in the Bronx, the Red Sox’s rivals had no answer for a guy who hopefully will be a foundation of the rotation for years to come.

The 2026 World Series matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays (boo!) and the Milwaukee Brewers (yay!) kicked off last night, and that can only mean one thing: the season is officially almost at a close. There are at most six games remaining, and baseball will be over after Halloween. Pretty soon, the stadium lights will dim, the locker rooms will go quite, and the hot stove will slowly begin to heat up as the winter begins.

The next few months will be even more hectic than usual. Not only will we be discussing potential free agent and trade targets, as we try to project how the Yankees might look to improve their squad for next season, we will also be following along the CBA negotiations, as Rob Manfred and the league owners attempt to engage in some ol’ fashioned robber baron-esque union busting. In order to prepare for these discussions — and to give you some good, hard data to cite when arguing with your friends — let’s take a look at where the Yankees’ payroll stands today.

Note: All guaranteed contracts are taken from Spotrac, and all arbitration estimates are taken from MLB Trade Rumors; as always, given how much more focus the Yankees seem to place on luxury tax values than how much money is actually paid out in a given year, all numbers are based on their luxury tax hit.

Guaranteed Money

The Yankees currently have seven players, including three-fifths of the starting rotation, under contract for the 2027 season, with a combined luxury tax hit of $212.4 million — more than the entire payrolls of 19 teams. Despite the large number, though, the Yankees are actually in fairly decent shape financially, at least in terms of the old rules: only three players (Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Max Fried) are under contract past the 2028 season, and the players who provide the least value relative to their salary (Giancarlo Stanton and Ryan McMahon) have only one year remaining. Furthermore, because of Cody Bellinger’s opt-out (represented by the asterisks), his luxury tax hit for this upcoming season is substantially higher than it will be for the final four years of the deal—assuming he does not opt out, that is—due to the way Major League Baseball calculates these things.

As a rather fun aside, with Aaron Hicks and DJ LeMahieu finally off the books, the Yankees enter this winter with no dead money for the first time in years; it is presently unclear just how long this will remain true. Indeed, Stanton and McMahon stand out as potential options for dead money in 2027 should the Yankees decide that they’d rather eat their contracts than guarantee them roster spots.

Arbitration-Eligible

MLB Trade Rumors projects the Yankees to have nine players eligible for arbitration this winter, with projected salaries ranging from $2.3 to $11 million. While we don’t yet know for sure whether the Yankees will actually tender contracts to all nine of these players — Fernando Cruz’s elbow injury and Luis Gil’s struggles (as well as his own injury history) make them likely candidates for release, while the high salaries relative to their health/production of Anthony Volpe, José Caballero, Heliot Ramos, and Clarke Schmidt might put them in at least mild jeopardy as well.

Pre-Arbitration

Technically, with no CBA signed, we do not know what the minimum salary will be for the 2027 season. We do have an upper and lower bound, though. Major League Baseball’s proposal from June pitched a minimum salary of $1 million, and MLBPA’s proposal from May advocated for a $1.5 million minimum. As such, although we don’t have concrete figures, we can nonetheless get a ballpark estimate as to how much the pre-arbitration salaries will cost.

As with the arbitration-eligible players, there’s a good chance that not everybody on this list will be tendered a contract. Punchless backup catcher Ali Sánchez and relievers Bradley Hanner, Kervin Castro, and Brendan Beck are just four players off the top of my head who should definitely not sign a one-year lease in the New York metropolitan area, at least until the non-tender deadline has passed.

Final Tally

As things currently stand, the Yankees 2027 luxury tax payroll sits somewhere between $265.1 and $273.1 million, or roughly $40 to $50 million below the Yankees’ 2026 payroll of $313 million (note: I removed player benefits and other non-payroll factors from the luxury tax equation, for the sake of consistency). While it remains to be seen how the CBA shakes out, and what the exact financial rules will be going forward, this gives us a rough estimate as to how much money the Yankees currently have at their disposal even if they aren’t looking to add to increase the team payroll in 2027.

And you’re saying, “Who?”

The Cubs signed Tyler Austin last December. He had played parts of four seasons for the Yankees, Twins, Giants and Brewers from 2016-19, then played six years for Yokohama in NPB, batting .293/.377/.568 with 85 home runs in 403 games.

The idea was for him to be a right-handed hitting backup first baseman to Michael Busch. And it might have worked: Austin hit .253/.345/.539 with 18 home runs in 217 MLB at-bats vs. LHP in those four seasons.

Unfortunately, Austin suffered some sort of knee injury and was ruled out before he played a single game for the team:

Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced that Austin underwent right knee surgery on Tuesday and would be out “months” as he recovers. The 34-year-old Austin required a right patellar tendon debridement procedure after his knee “didn’t respond well” in early camp workouts.

And “months” turned into “the entire season.” The Cubs paid Austin $1.2 million for this lost season.

Austin turned 35 during his season on the 60-day injured list. He did at least get to meet some of his teammates did participate in at least one team workout, as shown at the top of this post. And he also posed for photos in a Cubs uniform on Photo Day last Feb. 17:

Those, however, are likely the only times you will ever see Tyler Austin in a Cubs uniform. The team can certainly find a healthier, younger option to be a backup first baseman for Busch for 2027. I’m writing about him only because I decided I’d write an article about all 17 Cubs who are free agents this offseason or have a team or player option, and he is certainly one of those players. (See this StoryStream for the rest of the articles.)

Thanks, Tyler, and we wish you well.

The Yankees have agreed on a three-year contract extension with pitching coach Matt Blake, per multiple reports.

Blake, 41, was hired as the team's pitching coach ahead of the 2020 MLB season.

He will now remain in that role until at least the conclusion of the 2029 MLB season.

Since 2020, the Yankees trail just the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers in with a stellar 3.69 team ERA, are tied with the Seattle Mariners for third best in team WHIP (1.21), and rank fifth-best in K/9 (9.18).

While Blake has been able to rely on acquired stars in his pitching staff, such as Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Max Fried, he has also played a significant role in the farm system graduates both making the jump to and establishing themselves in the big leagues.

This includes most notably presumptive 2026 AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler, but also Will Warren, who continues to improve as a underappreciated back-end rotation arm. And while Luis Gil has had two straight seasons riddled with injuries and inconsistency, he did earn the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year award as a standout starter.

Additionally, Nestor Cortes Jr. bloomed under Blake. "Nasty Nestor" broke out in his third stint as a Yankee as a 26-year-old on a minor-league contract, earning a promotion to become a fan favorite starting pitcher in 2021, then earning All-Star honors and an eighth place finish in AL Cy Young voting during a career-best 2022 campaign.

Most recently, in 2026, Blake oversaw the transformation of Paul Blackburn from run-of-the-mill starting pitcher into lethal multi-inning bullpen arm, the emergence of southpaw Brent Headrick as a premier setup man, and the successful post-trade-deadline free agent additions of John Schreiber and Michael Fulmer to aid a thin bullpen at a crucial time in the regular season.

 

Of course kids love baseball. Everybody loves baseball. But the lost games, canceled World Series and changed landscape left behind by the 1994–95 players’ strike remind us that the business side of the game we love is anything but child’s play.

More than 30 years later, Major League Baseball is once again approaching a potential work stoppage that could leave the Colorado Rockies with less than a month to conduct much of their offseason business.

MLB’s free-agent market opens shortly after the World Series, with players permitted to sign with new teams five days after the final out. But the current collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, and another lockout is widely anticipated.

Meanwhile, MLB’s owners have proposed a salary floor and cap that could eventually change how much teams are required to spend.

For Colorado, that raises a few questions: How much money might the Rockies have to spend, how quickly should they act, and where should they invest it?

A salary floor? Not so fast

Under MLB’s initial proposal, teams would operate between a $171.2 million salary floor and a $245.3 million cap in 2027.

Before looking ahead, it helps to understand where Colorado stood financially in 2026. The Rockies’ estimated 2026 cash payroll was $120 million, with a competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll of $138 million, ranking them 21st in MLB by cash payroll.

2026 MLB payroll comparison

Rank	Team	Cash payroll	CBT payroll
1	Los Angeles Dodgers	$412M	$422M
2	New York Mets	$358M	$358M
20	Cincinnati Reds	$129M	$154M
21	Colorado Rockies	$120M	$138M
22	Minnesota Twins	$111M	$134M
29	Cleveland Guardians	$87M	$103M
30	Miami Marlins	$76M	$86M

Source: FanGraphs RosterResource. Estimated 2026 payroll figures, rounded to the nearest million. Rankings based on cash payroll.

Looking ahead to 2027, Colorado’s projected CBT payroll is in the neighborhood of $110 million, potentially leaving the Rockies roughly $60 million below the proposed minimum.

That’s not exactly pocket change.

Now, an offseason where the Rockies suddenly have to spend another $60 million would be tremendously entertaining. I’d happily spend November dreaming up ways to convince Tarik Skubal to pitch at Coors Field on a one-year deal.

Unfortunately, that’s probably not where these negotiations are headed.

For starters, CBT payroll isn’t the same as cash payroll. It uses the average annual value of contracts and includes arbitration estimates, benefits and other obligations. The precise gap also depends on how those costs are calculated under a new agreement.

More importantly, the MLB Players Association has opposed the owners’ proposed salary cap, and neither the cap nor the accompanying salary floor has been agreed upon.

As Andy McCullough reported for The Athletic, the proposal includes a negotiated transition period, with one executive suggesting implementation could take years.

So the proposed floor might mean bupkis for Colorado’s immediate offseason. There’s no established requirement for the Rockies to add $60 million to their 2027 payroll.

But another deadline is approaching much faster.

November could get busy

Predicting what Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes might do is difficult. Their first offseason in Colorado was already abbreviated by their late arrival, and a potential lockout could make their second one unusual for entirely different reasons.

But they were hardly inactive. Despite limited time, the new front office made substantial changes to the roster, including bringing in several players on major-league contracts.

They’ve already shown they’re willing to make moves.

As McCullough reported, executives and agents anticipate an accelerated free-agent market ahead of a potential December 1 lockout. Players and teams alike could look to complete deals before a work stoppage disrupts normal business. The middle tier of free agency could be particularly active.

For Colorado, that’s an opportunity worth taking seriously.

The Rockies should enter November with their targets identified, evaluations completed and financial parameters established. Acting quickly doesn’t mean signing players out of desperation. It means being prepared to move when an opportunity presents itself.

The answer is pitching

Looking back at the Rockies’ free-agent activity under previous front offices offers a pretty good blueprint for what not to do.

The results have ranged from expensive disasters like Kris Bryant’s seven-year, $182 million contract to bargain finds like C.J. Cron, who initially joined Colorado on a minor-league deal.

And the Rockies haven’t been unwilling to spend money on pitching. Ahead of the 2018 season, they committed a combined $106 million to relievers Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee.

But when it came to adding outside starting pitching, Colorado’s approach was considerably more conservative.

Rockies MLB free-agent starting pitcher signings from outside the organization

Offseasons	Starting pitchers signed to MLB contracts
2018–19 through 2024–25	Chad Kuhl, Dakota Hudson
2025–26	Michael Lorenzen, José Quintana, Tomoyuki Sugano

Outside starting pitchers signed to major-league free-agent contracts. Excludes minor-league deals, extensions, re-signings, trades and waiver claims.

Seven offseasons. Two outside starters.

DePodesta and Byrnes signed three in their first winter alone. Not every move worked, but the change in approach is hard to miss.

And with Colorado’s rotation finishing 2026 with a 6.28 ERA, the worst in baseball, that approach needs to continue.

So, what comes next?

The Rockies could use a right-handed corner outfielder and a defense-first backup catcher. But the biggest need is obvious.

Pitching. And lots of it.

That doesn’t mean bringing back every familiar veteran or signing another pitcher because he was good three years ago.

Colorado needs new arms, different arms, and as many legitimate options as possible.

Beyond traditional major-league free agency, that means exploring the Japanese and Korean markets, pursuing trades and aggressively adding minor-league pitching depth.

The minor-league market could be particularly interesting with a lockout looming. Minor leaguers have a separate CBA extending through December 2027, meaning players outside the major-league bargaining unit can generally continue developing even if MLB shuts down.

And the opportunities for organizational improvement could extend beyond the field.

Ryan Spilborghs raised an interesting possibility on a recent podcast: If other organizations make staffing cuts during a lockout, Colorado could have an opportunity to bring in experienced talent to the analytics department.

The Rockies are already working to strengthen their scouting and analytical departments. They reportedly added veteran scout Steve Barningham, and the organization is actively recruiting a senior or lead baseball analytics analyst.

For those interested in applying, applications are open through October 30.

The Rockies have the money. They have obvious needs. And whether it’s acquiring players before a shutdown or improving the organization during one, they have opportunities to make progress.

They don’t have to win the offseason. But they have every reason to be involved in it.

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Before the Yankees were the Babe Ruth-led behemoth that took the baseball world by storm in the ‘20s, they were the laughingstock of the American League. Between 1913, their last year as the Highlanders, and 1914, their first as the Yankees, the team went 107-196. Things got bad enough that there were rumors the team might flip to the upstart Federal League, a nascent third major league that threatened the AL and NL.

Determined not to lose his New York franchise, AL president Ban Johnson worked behind the scenes during the 1914-15 offseason to strengthen the team’s roster, making it more attractive for a prospective new ownership group. He did so by encouraging the rest of the league’s teams to sell the Yankees useful players at a reasonable price. The first team to heed his call was the Tigers, who sold New York two players: a first-base prospect named Wally Pipp and a 27-year-old outfielder named Hugh High.

Hugh Jenkins High
Born: October 24, 1887 (Pottstown, PA)
Died: November 16, 1962 (St. Louis, MO)
Yankees Tenure: 1915-18

High grew up in a family of 13 kids, three of whom would eventually play in the big leagues. The Highs were an itinerant bunch, living first in Pennsylvania, then New Jersey, then Illinois, and finally St. Louis in Hugh’s youth. He played semi-pro ball while serving as a plumber’s apprentice, making the jump to pro ball only after completing his obligation. He played well enough at Class-B Hartford of the Connecticut State League to draw the attention of several teams, including the Giants, who purchased his contract for $2,500 but ended up selling him back to Hartford for the same amount before he was able to join New York. High kept performing the next season and was once again a sought-after commodity, with the Tigers securing his services for the 1913 season.

High joined a crowded outfield picture in Detroit, with future Hall of Famers Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford as well as Bobby Veach, who’d finish a 14-year career with 2,063 hits and a .310 lifetime average. Still, he cracked the roster as a reserve outfielder and saw an expanded role early on with Cobb holding out due to a contract dispute and Veach on the shelf with an ankle injury. High played well enough that, when the roster returned to full strength, both Cobb and Crawford were briefly moved to the infield in separate stints to keep the rookie in the everyday lineup. While his raw stats never wowed, High was valued for his situational hitting and defense and developed a close relationship with the team’s manager, another future Hall of Famer named Hughie Jennings.

Which baseball player used the fewest distinct letters in his first & last names? I nominate Hugh High, at five. pic.twitter.com/CV4hQOsLR6

— John Thorn (@thorn_john) September 26, 2015

High improved in his second campaign, getting on base at a .363 clip while continuing to impress with his glove. The following offseason, the Tigers sold the talented youngster to New York to assuage Johnson’s concerns. His first season in pinstripes would be a career year. Finally given a full-time opportunity, he played in a career-high 119 games and showed some more pop, notching 27 extra-base hits after hitting 15 in the previous two years combined. High also swiped 22 bags, showcasing an all-around skill set that was an asset to a Yankees team still searching for an identity.

Hugh High NY Yankee- Thompson Original Photo pic.twitter.com/CERE4CTk6H

— The Skimmers (@TheSkimmers) June 13, 2017

Prior to the start of the 1916 campaign, the Yankees continued to beef up their roster, headlined by the addition of future Hall of Famer Frank “Home Run” Baker. They put up their first winning season since their days as the Highlanders with High firmly entrenched in left, continuing to get on base consistently and play fundamentally sound baseball. He dealt with an ankle injury for much of the year, though, a harbinger for what was ahead.

The next offseason, High dealt with blood poisoning from an infected blister in his foot that set him back in spring training. He missed more time during the year as he dealt with boils on his neck. He ended up getting replaced in the lineup in September and would never regain his starting role. After the ‘17 season, the Yankees shopped High extensively, nearly reaching deals with the Senators, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Cardinals. They finally reached an accord with the Athletics a few weeks into the season but High refused to report to his new club. The Yankees suspended the outfielder and he walked away from the game, taking a job at a Maryland shipyard rather than shipping off to Philadelphia.

It was the start of an odyssey for High. The Red Sox tried again to trade for him; when High demanded back pay for the time he was suspended, the Yankees balked and he instead returned to the shipyard. The league reinstated High in 1919, but when the Yankees attempted to option him to the minors, he once again chose his job in Maryland. In May of that year, he finally accepted his sale, this time to the Vernon Tigers of the Double-A Pacific Coast League. High spent five seasons there, followed by another with Double-A Columbus and a final season with the International League’s Reading Keystones at the age of 37. Throughout this seven-year wilderness period, he showcased the consistent bat and slick fielding which had made him a valuable big leaguer in his youth.

After his baseball career, High returned to St. Louis, resuming the plumbing career he had put on hold in his early 20s. He died on November 16, 1962 at the age of 75. While never a star, Hugh High was a ballplayer’s ballplayer who helped shore up the Yankees franchise in its early, uncertain days and, through his long journey in minor-league baseball, demonstrated a love of the game few can match.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

There was a lot of anticipation and intrigue when it came to AJ Smith-Shawver and his return from Tommy John Surgery for the Atlanta Braves in 2026. Considering how much flux the backend of Atlanta’s rotation went through in the previous season, there was a clear opportunity for anybody who wanted to grab onto that role.

AJ Smith-Shawver got that opportunity once he eventually returned in July. So how did that go for him? It’s time to find out.

How Acquired

The Braves selected Smith-Shawver with the 217th overall pick as their seventh-round draft choice in 2021. He skyrocketed through the system in 2023, speedrunning three minor league levels and eventually making his debut in June. Despite, or perhaps because of, his rapid ascent, Smith-Shawver has yet to throw over 45 big league innings in any given season.

What were the expectations?

One of the reasons why Smith-Shawver was unable to clear that 50-inning threshold was because he had Tommy John Surgery in June of 2025, which meant that he’d have to wait a full calendar year before even getting ready to make his return to the mound. As such, the hope was that Smith-Shawver could simply get healthy and hopefully improve upon a 2025 campaign where he showed some flashes of brilliance while still having the typical rollercoaster experience that most rookies and young pitchers experience upon breaking through to the big leagues.

We all know that recovery from this type of thing isn’t exactly a linear or easy process — just ask Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach about the elbow issues that they’ve both been dealing with for the past couple of seasons. Still, it wasn’t crazy to hope that AJ Smith-Shawver could eventually make a bounce back and become a valuable part of Atlanta’s rotation.

Performance-wise, Smith-Shawver had an 88/115/115 line in 74 career innings before the 2026 season. His 2023 and 2024 were comparatively rougher, but 2025 looked much better at 92/96/105. It was hard to know exactly what to expect given the long layoff and rehab from major surgery, but ZiPS saw him as an above-average-but-very-short-stint starter (about four innings a start, but 1.1 WAR in 80 innings) as its point estimate — basically a slight improvement over his small-sample 2025.

2026 Results

Smith-Shawver made about a month’s worth of official rehab starts, but once July 29 rolled around, he returned to the big league roster for a day as the Braves called him up as the 27th man for a doubleheader against the Mets. He turned in the sort of start that had folks across Braves Country clamoring for him to stick around — even though he was always bound to return to Gwinnett due to the 27th-man rule. Despite a somewhat underwhelming line of just 4 1/3 innings pitched with a 4/2 K/BB ratio, Shawver’s velocity (on his four-seamer, especially his four-seamer) looked impressive, his stuff was lively and he had also added a sinker and a cutter to his arsenal — giving him a very interesting tool box of six pitches to work with.

Smith-Shawver eventually got his chance to join the rotation for real once he got called up ahead of a start on August 19 against the Twins and while his stuff looked lively as usual, this time he was once again unable to make it through the fifth inning in an efficient manner. In fact, Smith-Shawver only ended up making two appearances where he pitched at least five complete innings — and one of those appearances was in long relief after Reynaldo López made (what turned out to be) his final start of the season.

That five-inning relief appearance on September 14 was Smith-Shawver’s first apperance out of the ‘pen and he proceeded to make three more appearances in relief during the final month of the season and eventually made an appearance in the NLDS. That NLDS appearance didn’t go well, as he wound up giving up a two-run dinger to Kyle Tucker and a solo shot to Max Muncy (both in the same inning) that basically gave the Dodgers enough breathing room to take the game on home.

Ultimately, Smith-Shawver finished with a 6.61 ERA (157 ERA-), a 6.00 FIP (145 FIP-), and a 5.17 xFIP (123 xFIP-) with a drop in strikeout rate (18.8 percent compared to 21.9 percent in 2025) and an increase in walk rate (from 10.9 percent in 2025 to 11.1 percent in 2026). He didn’t qualify for a bunch of the usual MLB Percentile Rankings that Baseball Savant provides but if he did, a lot of his categories would’ve been in the blue instead of the red. Needless to say, Smith-Shawver didn’t exactly hit the ground running upon his return to the bigs from Tommy John surgery, and “earned” -0.2 fWAR for his efforts.

What went right?

Well, his velocity is still good after returning from Tommy John surgery and that’s always a positive. His four-seam velocity was back at 96 mph and his sinker was clocked at an average of 95.1 mph. Again, the stuff that he had on display during his 2026 debut against the Mets was encouraging to see and it sure seemed like AJSS had something to really build upon as a starter based on that first impression back.

Also, if that five-inning relief appearance against the Cubs qualified as a start then this would’ve been Smith-Shawver’s best “start” of the season. The Braves were definitely in need of having any starter who could give them innings while only giving up around a couple of runs and the Braves gladly would’ve taken that had it been a start.

Meanwhile, his most encouraging appearance as a reliever came on September 20 against the Astros, which is when he faced seven batters over two innings and only gave up a hit while striking out four batters. It was a very solid appearance during the divisional-clinching win for the Braves in Houston and it was the type of outing that makes you think “Hey, maybe there’s something here with this guy as a reliever.” The Braves certainly thought so, but it was kind of a mixed bag in the end — his next relief outing was pretty bad, and he gave up a homer while striking out three of the five batters he faced in his final tune-up. And then, well, the one in the playoffs didn’t go very wellk.

His splitter was a pretty effective pitch, as he racked up a whiff rate of 31.3 percent and a Put Away percentage of 15.8 percent and 16 of his 27 strikeouts on the season came from that pitch alone. It was clearly his best pitch and it’s clearly the one that he should throw a bit more of going forward.

What went wrong?

AJ Smith-Shawver was just unable to get really deep into games as a starter. In every one of his six long appearances this season, he walked at least two batters and walked at least three in four of those appearances as well. If he walked a batter then that guy usually came around to score. It was either that or his propensity to give up the long ball. While his four-seamer only had a .209 Batting Average against it (along with a .216 xBA), whenever hitters did catch up to his heater, they usually didn’t make a mistake with it. He gave up seven homers all season and four of them were against his heater. Opposing batters slugged .512 against his four-seamer (with an xSLG of .500). He was unable to get a lot of whiffs with it, either. When the pitch you lean on that much is getting hit that hard, it’s difficult to have a lot of success.

Smith-Shawver’s start on September 8 against the Rays was the end of the road (at least in 2026) as a starter and it was basically a single-game example of everything that’s been ailing Smith-Shawver at the big league level right now. He was charged with five hits, he walked two batters, two of those five hits were dingers (against a Rays team that, while excellent on offense, didn’t hit for a ton of power in 2026) and he only lasted 3 1/3 innings. He was unable to get deep into a game, it was his shortest start of the season, and Smith-Shawver found himself heading to the clubhouse after having a largely inefficient night on the mound.

Overall, Smith-Shawver found it hard to rack up strikeouts, he walked a lot of batters, he got hit decently-hard when batters did catch up with his stuff and he got barreled-up on a semi-regular basis. Fundamentally, he posted an xFIP- north of 100 in four of his five starts (well north of 100 in three) — or five of six if you include the five-inning relief appearance. It wasn’t a case of being unlucky or anything, he just wasn’t doing the fundamental business of striking guys out and not walking them well at all. That’s not a recipe for success as a starter, which explains why the Braves decided that the best place for Smith-Shawver going forward towards the Postseason was the bullpen. They just couldn’t afford to have him try to figure it out as a starter while they were holding on to the lead in the NL East and against playoff-caliber lineups in the Postseason.

One additional cruel twist of fate: above, it was listed that his xFIP was below average in every longer-stint outing but one. That one where it wasn’t? It was his worst start by WPA of the year, as, despite the better pitching quality, the Nationals dumped four runs on him and the defense thanks to walks and seeing-eye singles in the second, and then added a homer in the third. Welp.

2027 Outlook

AJ Smith-Shawver will be 24 heading into next season and when you combine his young age with the lack of mileage (when it comes to innings, at least) on his arm, it sure feels like he could get another shot at starting for the Braves once Spring Training rolls around (whenever that may be). He’s got the velocity on his four-seamer that can play but he still has yet to develop it into a truly effective pitch. His splitter is there but everything else still needs a bit of work, as evidenced by the high walk rate and the lack of strikeouts that he was able to get on a consistent basis. Something kind of amusing is that Smith-Shawver didn’t directly struggle with either pitch shape or command — he largely threw his four-seamer and splitter to the same spots over and over. But, those spots just weren’t very good in practice, largely because his splitter tended to miss the zone on the low armside corner. If he fixes that and has that splitter actually fall in for a strike, and things get a lot more annoying for batters, but it was easy to wait him out in 2026.

Early projections aren’t quite so sanguine about Smith-Shawver as they were before he made his return. He’s now targeted as a below-average bulk guy or swingman, even falling short of the “assume everyone is a fourth starter until they show otherwise” heuristic. He’s got some work to do, basically.

Assuming the Braves don’t add to their rotation outside of the organization heading into next season, Smith-Shawver should get an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster as a starter. Maybe with a full (and potentially extended) offseason to figure things out, Smith-Shawver can come back and finally really get rolling with his career. Again, he’s young and it still feels like he’s a bit of a rookie since he hasn’t really had an extended stint in the bigs quite yet. Maybe we’ll see him get that chance and embrace it in 2027. We’ll see what happens.

The Yankees have a third base problem.

It wasn't long ago that they had Jazz Chisholm Jr. learn the position on the fly when they acquired him at the 2024 trade deadline. And since then, they've acquired Ryan McMahon, Amed Rosario and Jose Caballero over the years to help fill the hot corner, without any of them able to capture it.

McMahon has been the biggest disappointment. While his defense has still been above-average, his offensive struggles have helped create the black hole in the bottom part of the Yankees' lineup.

Rosario was a nice bench piece who can give a few starts at third, here and there, but he's now a free agent. And Caballero was exposed as a bench piece who occasionally starts, not an everyday player.

Here's a breakdown of the internal and external candidates to be the Yankees' 2027 third baseman. 

Platoon between McMahon and Caballero

There's no use separating McMahon and Caballero into talking points because, in reality, if the Yankees don't add someone from outside the organization, a platoon between the two is likely what we'll see when the 2027 season begins.

McMahon and Caballero complement each other, hitting from opposite sides, with neither having the track record as a Yankee to be that everyday player.

Caballero, while showing flashes in 2026 when Anthony Volpe was on the shelf, returned to his career mean, slashing .231/.290/.365 with an OPS of .655. While his 14 homers were a career high, it's unlikely he'll reach that power level again. This past season was the only one in which he reached double-digit long balls. 

And McMahon's offensive struggles are well-documented. Despite tinkering in the box, the third baseman hit offensive career lows -- in non-shortened seasons -- in home runs (11), doubles (14), hits (70) and average (.213). 

McMahon's defense also saw a slight regression. He was a zero in OAA, his lowest in a non-shortened season since 2019. With one more guaranteed season on McMahon's deal, the glove-first third baseman will likely be used in 2026, even if it's for late-game defensive purposes. 

Anthony Volpe

If Volpe is used at third base, there must have been a drastic change in the Yankees' roster. Whether it's an injury to McMahon or Caballero, or the Yankees make a deal to bring in an everyday second baseman. 

Since those are possibilities, we should dig into what Volpe at third base could look like in 2027.

First off, if McMahon is healthy, this would be a platoon -- at least to start. When Volpe was demoted in the middle of the season, he used his time in the minors to learn second base and a bit of third. When Aaron Boone and the Yankees were looking to adjust their lineup/roster to produce more offense and to give more flexibility, they actually had Volpe play a couple of major league games at the hot corner.

He made one start and didn't have any balls hit his way. If not for a rained out game that was never made up, Volpe would have had another try at third base before the postseason. Volpe did make an appearance at third in the postseason (for two innings) and converted on his single chance. 

The Yankees will likely have Volpe start his offseason program playing second and some third. While second base is the natural fit for Volpe, if his bat warrants him in the lineup, he could be an option at third.

Alec Bohm

It's crazy to think that Bohm might be the biggest free agent in the third base market this offseason, but that's where we are.

The 30-year-old is coming off an uneven 2026, where he bounced back from hitting below the Mendoza line through May 15 to ultimately slash .249/.315/.383 with an OPS of .735. His off-the-field issues -- filing a lawsuit against his own parents -- could have played a role in his slow start, and perhaps he's closer to the .274/.340/.433 player he was in the 120 games since May 9. 

While his career offensive numbers never jumped off the page, he posts every day, playing in at least 140 games in four of his last five seasons. He's also just one of only seven right-handed bats to drive in at least 85 runs in three of the past four seasons, including this past season. 

You would have to overlook the defense, however. 

Bohm had a -11 OAA playing both third base (-8) and first base (-3) in 2026. It was a big step back from 2025 (-2 OAA) and 2024 (5), so that's a red flag, especially for a Yankees team that seemingly falters on the defensive end in October. But Hal Steinbrenner blamed the offense for the team's lack of postseason success the last two seasons, so perhaps the organization will overlook it for Bohm.

And with McMahon on the roster, he can replace Bohm at third base in late-game situations when the Yankees are preserving a lead.

Bohm could also be a right-handed option at first base as a Paul Goldschmidt -- who is a free agent -- replacement. Again, the Yankees would have to overlook the defense, especially with Luis Garcia Jr. and Ben Rice as below-average defenders at the position -- though Garcia Jr. proved to be much better at the position than once thought. 

Eugenio Suarez

Another option where offense trumps defense, Suarez would, admittedly, be a reach for the Yankees.

Suarez only played 50 games at third base in 2026 and had a -7 OAA. His arm strength is also in the bottom 25 percent in the league, so if the Yankees do scoop up Suarez, it would have to be a pseudo-platoon with McMahon. 

There's more offensive upside for Suarez, but his 2026 was far from the 49-homer 2025 he enjoyed. Suarez still hit 26 bombs, but slashed .212/.307/.433 with an OPS of .740. But is 2026 an outlier for Suarez? It's worth the risk for the Yankees if the money is right to inject the position with some much-needed power. 

The Reds and Suarez have a mutual option for 2027, which Cincinnati would certainly decline. The market for Suarez could be sparse, as no team wanted the right-handed slugger when the Reds placed him on waivers late this past season. 

He signed with the Reds on a one-year, $15 million deal before the start of the season, so another one-year deal is likely for the 35-year-old. 

Longshot candidates

Let's talk about some candidates who are unlikely to be available. 

Bo Bichette has an option to return to the Mets, and while he bounced back from a slow start to the 2026 season, he would be leaving $42 million on the table if he opts out, a risk considering the upcoming labor negotiations. 

If he were to test free agency, the Yankees could take a flyer on the former Blue Jay.

There's also the Astros' Isaac Paredes. 

Houston has a club option to retain the 27-year-old for just $13.35 million, which they certainly will. Paredes slashed .262/.360/.447 with an OPS of .807 to go along with his 25 home runs on an objectively subpar Astros team. 

If the Yankees could figure out a trade package to Houston's liking, Paredes would be a great choice.

Make a move

The Yankees' third base situation is similar to second base in that the prudent decision would be to start the season with in-house options. A platoon of McMahon and Caballero is the likely outcome, but if there's a splash to be made, it's at third.

Of the free agent options, Bohm is the ideal candidate as he can be the everyday third baseman for years to come, especially once McMahon is off the books following the 2027 season. 

But spinning a trade for Paredes could potentially raise the ceiling of what the 2027 Yankees could be offensively. It would take a willing partner, but of all the potential trades Brian Cashman could make, he's the one I would eye. 

 

Game one is in the books and what a game it was.

One of those games where a matter of inches was the difference between victory and defeat and you just have to tip your cap and move on to the next one.

So tonight the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers will move on to game two of the 2026 World Series with Milwaukee holding a 1-0 lead in the best of seven series.

Tampa Bay will be sending its ace to the hill with 31-year old Drew Rasmussen taking the mound as he faced the team that made him a 6th round pick in the 2018 draft. Rasmussen was among the best pitchers in all of baseball over the second half of the 2026 season and thus far has been the top pitcher of the postseason. Over three starts in the playoffs, Rasmussen has compiled a 1.29 ERA | 2.58 FIP with a 30.3 K% and 3.9 BB% over 21 innings pitched. Rasmussen’s last outing came on the 18th in game five against Cleveland where he allowed 1 run on 4 hits over 7 innings pitched en route to a 3-1 victory.

Opposing Rasmussen on the mound is 24-year old Logan Henderson, whom the Brewers selected in the 4th round of the 2021 draft out of McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas. Henderson has soldified his place in the Brewers rotation despite injury woes the past two years. When Henderson does the take the mound, he has proven himself a capable strikethrower, capable of racking up strikeouts thanks to a plus change-up while limiting walks. Among 155 pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched, Henderson ranked 6th in K-BB%.

Overall over the course of the 2026 season, Henderson compiled a 2.47 ERA | 3.32 FIP with a 29.6 K% & 5.1 BB% over 98.1 IP. Thus far in the postseason, Henderson has a 3.00 ERA | 3.77 FIP with a 15.0 K% and 12.5 BB%. It has been nearly two weeks since Henderson last pitched, when he took the mound on the 12th for game two against the Los Angeles Dodgers; Henderson allowed four runs — two earned — on three hits while he walked two and struck out two over four innings of work.

Henderson and the Rays present an interesting matchup as the Rays make more contact than any other team in baseball, while Henderson ranks 2nd among pitchers with at least 90 IP in Zone%. Despite being in the zone 47.4% of the time, opponents make contact on those pitches just 81.2% of the time, which is in the 97th percentile.

The game is tonight at 8:00pm

As we all know, the Nationals bullpen was bad in 2026. The unit set the all time record for blown saves and imploded in spectacular fashion many times. There is no denying that the Nats bullpen needs outside help. However, I do think there are some internal options with a lot of upside.

The three pitchers I will talk about today all have elite stuff, but have yet to put it all together yet. I would be surprised if all three of these pitchers were good in 2027, but I think at least one will have a breakout year. Riley Cornelio, Yovanny Cruz and Luis Perales are the three pitchers I will be breaking down today.

Cornelio will be the first pitcher I talk about because he was the most effective in 2026. In 36.2 MLB innings this season, Cornelio showed that he can generate whiffs at a high level. He struck out 25% of hitters as a rookie this season and generated whiffs at a 34.5% clip. The headliner of his arsenal is a filthy 85 MPH slider which hitters swung and missed at over half the time.

That slider gives him a truly elite pitch to build around. When he came to the big leagues, Cornelio only threw a fastball and slider. However, he introduced a cutter that he really started to lean on in September. During the last month of the season, Cornelio threw his cutter nearly 30% of the time. 

Riley "The Great" Cornelio, Nasty 90mph Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/86825hB1Em

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 9, 2026

The cutter proved to be a good bridge between his fastball and slider. With his new cutter, his filthy slider and a fastball that averages 96.5 MPH, Cornelio has the arsenal to dominate. However, control remains a big question mark here. Cornelio walked 18.1% of hitters, which is simply too high. Whenever he was put in higher leverage spots, the control would make him quite unreliable. 

Even in September, when he posted a 1.62 ERA, his walk rate was still over 14%. For Cornelio to truly break out, I need to see that number in the 10-12% region. That was actually where his walk rate was throughout his minor league career, so I have some faith. In 2026, Cornelio posted a 3.68 ERA with a 4.00 FIP, but that could be so much better if he can control the walks. 

All three of these pitchers are flamethrowers, but Yovanny Cruz has the biggest velocity of the group. This season, Cruz averaged 99.8 MPH on his 4-seamer and 100 on his sinker. Even in this era of velocity, averaging 100 is rare. That heat makes the 27 year old Cruz stand out.

It is a big reason why the Nats acquired him as part of the return for Luis Garcia. Cruz showed flashes this season, but there is still a lot of room for growth. On the year, Cruz posted a 5.06 ERA in 17 outings, with that number spiking to 6.75 once he got to DC. 

However, I am still excited about his stuff. His fastball may light up the radar gun, but I think his slider is his best pitch. He throws it 49% of the time and with a 118 stuff+ rating, it has all the ingredients to be an elite slider. Cruz throws the pitch in the low-90’s but still gets true slider movement.

This Yovanny Cruz slider is the kind of weapon banned in the Geneva Convention pic.twitter.com/I1LwjYkQ0g

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) August 8, 2026

When he arrived in DC, the fastball was actually Cruz’s biggest issue. Despite the velocity, his fastball shape is not good. With hitters seeing 100 more and more, a flat triple digit fastball is not that big of a challenge. After being sent down to AAA, Cruz came back with a new look sinker. I think the sinker will be his primary heater moving forward because of the nasty movement. It will also help him generate more ground balls.

Like Cornelio, Cruz also has some control issues, though his 12.9% walk rate is not as high. Yovanny Cruz has all the tools on paper to be an elite reliever. Now, it will be about putting it all together. Despite his nasty stuff, he only struck out 21.4% of hitters. With a more trustworthy fastball at his disposal, I think we could see a major step in the right direction for Cruz.

The last pitcher to discuss is Luis Perales. Honestly, I still have a lot of doubts here, but he has the raw stuff to succeed in the bullpen. To be blunt, Perales was awful when he got his MLB opportunity. He gave up 14 earned runs in 11 innings, which amounts to an 11.45 ERA. Walks and homers doomed the right hander, with Perales allowing 5 homers and issuing 13 walks.

Despite looking terrible in the show, you could still see brief glimpses of his nasty stuff. Perales’ fastball averaged over 99 MPH and his overall whiff rate was very good at 33.6%. However, there is more to pitching than just missing bats. When he wasn’t missing bats, Perales was either walking people or giving up hard contact.

The only pitch that proved to be effective was his splitter. Batters only hit .063 on the split with a 48.9% whiff rate. That offering has insane downward action and Perales sells it well with his arm action. It is the one pitch that is big league caliber at the moment.

Luis Perales first MLB strikeout pic.twitter.com/E2mTDcq9s5

— Kev (@klwoodjr) August 27, 2026

However, the split is best as a chase pitch. That means he will need to find weapons to set up the splitter. In the big leagues, Perales’ fastball and cutter were lit up. His fastball command was not even close to good enough. The heater was either uncompetitive or right down the middle. Perales can consistently throw strikes with the cutter, but that is the one pitch in his arsenal that does not stand out from a stuff perspective. 

Perales still has a long way to go, but he will get another shot at some point. With 13 strikeouts in 11 innings, he showed he can generate whiffs. However, he still has a lot of work to do. His 3.64 ERA in AAA gives you some hope, but he looked raw as sushi in the big leagues. Despite that, I would not give up on such an electric arm so quickly. I don’t think he will stick as a starter, but he has the stuff to be a very good reliever.

All three of these arms have major flaws, but they have big time stuff as well. I think at least one of these three will be an established high leverage arm this time next year. Out of Cornelio, Cruz and Perales, who do you think will take the next step in 2027?

How will this year's World Series play out? Using the Dynasty League Baseball online simulation, USA TODAY Sports' Steve Gardner and DLB designer Mike Cieslinski will pre-play each game to provide some insight into the key matchups and strategy fans can expect to see in the Fall Classic.

Perhaps the most intriguing question in sports is ... "what if?"

Fans love to second-guess managers' and coaches' decisions. And that's exactly what we have in USA TODAY Sports' annual Simulated World Series. Playing these games beforehand, we don't always have the benefit of knowing what's going through the minds of skippers Kevin Cash and Pat Murphy.

In this instance, is Cash making a mistake by not putting his best pitchers at the front of the rotation?

In our version of reality, Drew Rasmussen pitched the Tampa Bay Rays to victory in Game 1 and Freddy Peralta took the mound for Game 2 in Milwaukee. Both decisions look pretty smart in hindsight as the Rays stymied the Brewers' bats once again in a 5-2 Rays win.

Here's how they took a 2-0 lead in our Sim Series:

Rays vs Brewers World Series Game 2 simulation

The virtual version of Peralta didn't have any reason to be jittery as he returned to the ballpark he called home for his first eight major league seasons. But maybe he was ...

After the Rays got on the board first with a 439-foot leadoff homer from Yandy Diaz, Peralta gave the lead right back − and more. After giving up a single to Jackson Chourio, Peralta served up a letter-high fastball that Brewers second baseman Brice Turang yanked down the right field line for a two-run homer.

But with that out of the way, Peralta settled down and kept Milwaukee from doing anything else in his six innings of work.

Meanwhile, the Rays' bats went to work on Brewers starter Logan Henderson. In the second, Victor Mesa Jr. reached on a dribbler that Henderson threw away for a two-base error. A two-out single from Game 1 hero Jonny DeLuca brought Mesa home to tie things at 2.

In the bottom of the fourth, Diaz put the Rays on top with an RBI single. Richie Palacios added a solo homer off Aaron Ashby in the sixth to give the Rays a 4-2 lead.

The Brewers had two golden opportunities to get back in the game, loading the bases in the sixth before Peralta retired Cooper Pratt and Garrett Mitchell on harmless fly balls. After lefty Cam Booser came on for the Rays in the seventh, No. 9 hitter David Hamilton reached on a bunt single with one out and the top of the order coming up.

Chourio crushed a pitch to deep center field for a potential go-ahead two-run homer, but it died at the warning track into DeLuca's glove. Booser retired lefties Turang and Jake Bauers to end the threat.

An RBI double from DeLuca made it 5-2 in the top of the eighth, and Bryan Baker came on for a six-out save to seal the deal.

BOX SCORE:  Rays 5, Brewers 2

FULL PLAY-BY-PLAY: Peralta, bullpen keep Brewers bats silent

What to watch in (the real) Game 2

▶ Pitching changes. When Rays manager Kevin Cash opted to start Nick Martinez in Game 1, it pushed Peralta back to the scheduled starter in Game 3. How would Peralta have done pitching in Milwaukee? We could find out for real in Game 7 ...

In any event, the veteran was outstanding in his six innings here, working out of trouble on several occasions − especially the bases-loaded, one-out jam in the sixth.

▶ Clutch hitting tips scales. With two excellent pitching staffs in the series, there won't be too many scoring opportunities, so the team that capitalizes best in those situations is likely to win.

The Rays got two-out RBI hits from Diaz in the fourth to go ahead and from DeLuca in the eighth to pad their lead.

Meanwhile, the Brewers went 2-for-11 with two outs and runners in scoring position for the game, but neither of those hits plated a run.

▶ Big-time bullpen. As they did in the Sim Series opener, the Rays followed their pitching plan to perfection. Peralta provided six strong innings before he had to leave with some shoulder stiffness. (He should be fine to take his next turn in the rotation.)

Cam Booser (.123/.157/.231 vs. left-handed batters in 2026) once again kept the Brewers scoreless, but gave way to Baker in the eighth when righty slugger Andrew Vaughn pinch-hit for Christian Yelich. No worries! Baker (1.44 ERA, 41-for-44 in save chances) retired all six batters he faced to earn his second consecutive save.

The question for the Rays later in the series: Who's going to get the Brewers' lefty hitters out if the starters don't pitch into the seventh inning − as Rasmussen and now Peralta have done?

Meanwhile, the Brewers have yet to use their closer, Trevor Megill, in this series.

▶ Another injury. After the Brewers had third baseman Joey Ortiz exit due to injury in Game 1, the Rays lost starting catcher Liam Hicks for five days when he was hit by a foul tip in the bottom of the fifth inning in Game 2. Backup Nick Fortes isn't as good offensively or defensively, so the Rays will have to accept the downgrade until Hicks can return if and when the series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 6.

Previous 2026 Sim Series results

Game 1:Rays 3, Brewers 0

Simulate your own World Series. Get a FREE one-month subscription to Dynasty League Baseball online by going to DynastyLeagueBaseball.com, selecting the monthly option and entering code USA2 at checkout.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Simulated World Series 2026: Rays rise to the occasion in Game 2 vs. Brewers