Category: Baseball

The bad news in the world of the Cincinnati Reds this weekend was that TJ Friedl was mercifully designated for assignment. That’s good news if you focus solely on the ghastly production he put forward during the 2026 season, but it’s bad news in the sense that Friedl both provided years of yeomen’s work in CF and atop the order and that the Reds, seemingly, weren’t prepared for him to fall right off a cliff like that.

He was still their regular leadoff hitter up until May 12th, after all. The Reds chose to pay him nearly $4 million for this season for a reason.

While Friedl’s eventual departure will take a chunk of past-production out of Cincinnati’s outfield quiver, it’s worth pointing out just how bad Cincinnati’s outfield has been even with Friedl’s good years. Just last year, for instance, collective RF production by the Reds graded out to just a 56 wRC+, far and away the worst among all RF groups in the sport (with Detroit’s 69 second worst). The 79 wRC+ put up by the entirety of the outfield (Friedl included) was similarly dead last among all 30 teams.

The Reds are not devoid of semi-talented options out there as we look towards 2027, however. JJ Bleday has brought a reasonably solid bit of lefty power to LF, something that should dovetail nicely with Spencer Steer when the latter is healthy again next spring. In center, Dane Myers has brought a decent-ish floor to the position with solid defense and an ability to hit left-handed pitching reasonably well, but leaning on him against righties still seems an outlandish ask. There have even been flashes of true brilliance from the young Hector Rodriguez, though his splits suggest that he, too, should likely only be used on one side of a platoon.

Sprinkle in the return of Blake Dunn and the potential that Carlos Jorge can take a step forward after his first cup of coffee and there are bodies to take breaths out on the grass next year. On any given day you wouldn’t be shocked to see any of them actually get a hit off big league pitching, swipe a bag, or make a catch that prompted you innately to stand up and applaud. Deserving big leaguers most all of them, with only the talented prospects yet to show enough to be considered ‘actual major leaguers’ in terms of their quality.

What the Reds don’t seemingly have, though, is a single one of those guys who looks the part of both an everyday player and a player on whom you can give a middle-of-the-order role to right now. Only Steer – who should really just be an infielder and who is coming off a season-ending wrist injury – fits the bill of ‘everyday regular’ by even Cincinnati’s standards, and he’s been worth a grand total of 0.9 bWAR in 952 PA since the start of the 2025 season. Hell, Steer will turn 30 in 2027 and will be making something akin to ~$6 million via his second trip through arbitration this winter, and if anything he fits the Friedl profile of ‘a guy the Reds should have traded before he hits 30 and his production craters.’

So, like in most other corners of the baseball world that exist, the Cincinnati Reds find themselves between a rock and a hard place. Frugal to their core, they have to figure out a way to revamp an entire outfield while also knowing full well they have an existing stock of outfielders in-house who’d probably warrant a collective C- grade, at best, if judged by their front office peers.

What’s sad, though, is despite being this deep into a second consecutive botched rebuild, Cincinnati’s ownership and front office seem to have zero urgency in making a thorough revamp happen. They are going to sit on their hands and let this group have another year to show that maybe, just maybe, one of the group will stick as a found-money success story, since actually putting in the time, money, and effort to bring in proven players is simply too much to ask from these guys.

Moving on from Friedl should just be the start. Instead, they’re going to turn him into the fall guy by their inactivity beyond that.

Before the 2026 season started, the Braves were projected to be good. Per FanGraphs, their central estimate Steamer-plus-ZiPS blend projection saw them in a virtual tie for the NL East crown with the Mets at 90 wins, with division odds of 36 percent, top-two-in-NL record odds of 29 percent, and overall playoff odds of 79 percent. The projected record was top three; the playoff odds were top four.

As I start writing this on September 21, the day after the Braves clinched the NL East with a sweep of the Astros, it’s hard to say that things didn’t work out as expected. The Braves have 92 wins, good for fourth in MLB — whatever extra wins they collect this week are gravy, as the Braves have little chance of overtaking the Dodgers for a top-two NL record and corresponding bye, and they probably won’t try in favor of getting guys rest and lining up their rotation for the first round of the postseason. In at least this way, things went according to plan: the Braves were projected to be good, they were good, and they ended up basically where they were expected to. Hooray, the system works, at least this time. (Not in 2025, but the less we can say about that cursed season, the better… perhaps 2025 was the debt repaid for 2018.)

This turn of events should be satisfying. Or, failing that, at least mollifying. For all the hand-wringing from 2024-on: the core is aging and no longer good; the team can’t supplement its roster with quality players, especially in the rotation; the team can’t manage player health well enough to complete; and so on and so forth ad nauseam like a giant Battery Power Atlanta Braves Game Thread and Discussion made manifest into a marquee crawl blazoning from the inside of fans’ eyelids… yes, for all that hand-wringing, here came the 2026 Braves, clinching with a week to go, while the Mets went full Mets (again, and earlier this time) and the Phillies look like a much more apt target for the same sort of hand-wringing.

Are you satisfied? If so, this post isn’t for you. This post is for me, someone who spent a huge chunk of the offseason thinking about how this roster shaped up, and then pulled an update together every two weeks that told a… different… story. A weird story. Not weird like 2018, where a young roster led by a budding superstar played well enough on both sides of the ball to roll through five of the season’s six months en route to a 90-win season. Weird a different way.

I considered burying the lede, but I won’t, and chances are, you’ve seen this written before. The Braves have the fourth-most wins through the point where win collection was relevant for them. Yet, they rank 21st in position player fWAR and ninth in pitching fWAR. Are they getting horrendously unlucky with offensive outputs? Not really — they rank 14th in xwOBA (and that’s not park-adjusted; they play in a favorable-ish home park for offense). There’s a bunch of stuff going on, but it all makes the the story of the 2026 Braves complicated. And weird. I’m emphasizing weird, because that’s the vaguest, most-broad way of talking about it.

Baseball is great because it’s weird. It’s an affair that lends itself to identifying, collecting, and analyzing insanely minute data slices. You’d think with that level of granularity, we’d have come up with a Unifying Theory of Baseball, and in some ways, we have. The thing is, that theory only works in general, and not in every single case. That tension between “we know how this works at this point” and “oh crap it didn’t work right here” is, at least for me, the most delectable part of the whole affair. Experiencing baseball is standing chest-deep in a river of both expectations and occurrences as they unceasingly rush past you. It’s amazing. I won’t forget the 2026 Braves, who are like a bizarrely-shaped log in that same river, cartwheeling end-on-end and occasionally smacking everyone in the face.

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Let’s talk briefly about WAR. fWAR, the FanGraphs WAR formulation, to be specific. (This is not the place for a castigation of bWAR, the Baseball-Reference flavor, but we can make a space for that elsewhere.) Here’s a not-secret that you may not be aware of if you made it this far, but don’t know how (f)WAR works.

WAR has no idea whether a run scored (or didn’t), and therefore has no care for whether anyone scored more (or fewer) runs than anyone else at any time ever.

WAR has a tough job, and I won’t get into everything it does pretty well here, but the idea is that in order to meet all of its functions and responsibilities, WAR has little use for context. A bloop single can be a walkoff that wins a game. A bloop single can be a garbage time nothingburger. A bloop single could be a key part of a rally that is rendered irrelevant by a bullpen meltdown later. To WAR, they’re all just bloop singles.

So then, you may not find it noteworthy, but I find it mind-spinningly remarkable, that this is true: from 2021-2026, somewhere between 80-90 percent of the difference in team record (and generally closer to 90 percent) can be explained by difference in team (f)WAR. If you made a chart, it would look like this:

(Hey, what’s with the stuff in the bottom left corner? That’s 2020. WAR even worked this well in 2020.)

See the coefficient on that best-fit line formula? It’s basically one, i.e., one more WAR-win means one more actual win. This is also remarkably consistent — if doing individual years, that slope coefficient is somewhere outside of 0.9 to 1.1 in just five of the 25 years assessed (excluding the pandemic season), and just one since 2010 (2025). (And it’s not like it’s far off of 0.9 or 1.1 where it does happen.)

Another thing remarkable about this diagonal corndog of a graph? fWAR was, maybe at some point, focused entirely on the nuts and bolts of outs and non-outs, but it has deviated. One huge thing that stands out in my mind has to do with fielding: by switching from UZR to Statcast/OAA for defense, positioning is no longer accounted for in fWAR. A team with elite defenders in the wrong place gets more WAR even if they don’t get more outs; a team with lollygagging glovemen that has pristine-ish positioning would probably have awful defensive metrics but a very low BABIP-against (that wouldn’t factor into WAR). Yet, fWAR perseveres. (It wasn’t that big a change, but I do think it’s one that needs to be acknowledged — it makes WAR better at comparing players but worse at being summed and giving you a team-level understanding.)

So, the system works. Does it work for the Braves?

Pretty much, yes. There were three outlier-ish seasons where the Braves did something akin to what they are doing in 2026, but most of the rest are right on the line. In 2002, the Braves had 88 WAR-wins but romped to a 101-win season. In 2019, it was 86 WAR-wins and a 97-win season. 2026? Even without the full year in the books, it’s 79 WAR-wins and 92 wins.

The 2026 Braves have a real chance of having sub-.500 WAR-wins, while winning the division and winning 92-plus games. Since I’ve been watching them (2001-onward, hence the time horizon here), the Braves have had eight seasons with sub-.500 WAR-wins (excluding 2020); the only season, other than what might transpire in 2026, was that doomed 2011 campaign where the team finished with 80 WAR-wins but 89 go-nowhere wins. That season sucked at the end, but maybe it was… the universe setting things to rights in a compressed period?

Anyway, enough examples, here’s a table.

I could stop here, but let’s go deeper.

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In addition to team WAR, which is the sum of WAR accrued by all players playing for that team, FanGraphs also computes and maintains BaseRuns. The idea behind BaseRuns is that linear weights (the things that assign value to a double versus a homer versus an out) don’t cover enough edge cases when adding a bunch of players performing on the same team together, so it exists as a team-oriented measure of run scoring and run prevention, done mostly by just taking all the individual events that a team is involved in and converting them into runs-per-PA on both the hitting and pitching-plus-defense side. It’s basically like run differential, except if you decomposed run differential to be “the stuff that leads to runs” instead of “actual runs scored that we are just going to tally.” For more, see here — ten years old, but still useful, I think.

The 2026 Braves are not suuuuper weird when it comes to BaseRuns. This season, they have the tenth-best BaseRuns-based offense, the seventh-best BaseRuns-based run prevention, and the ninth-best BaseRuns proxy record overall. (A funny thing about BaseRuns in 2026: the Pirates are fifth in MLB, the Tigers are seventh, and the Braves are barely ahead of the Marlins.) The Braves’ current BaseRuns record is 85-71, seven wins behind their actual pace. The Reds, Phillies, and Rays are all at +9 over BaseRuns; there are three teams (Angels, Tigers, Giants) at -11 or worse relative to BaseRuns. It’s been kind of a wild year for BaseRuns, to be honest.

Both BaseRuns and WAR are sort of based on the same premises. There are key differences, of course — adjustments for the non-linear weights-ness of it all offensively, and the run prevention side really just uses “what did your team allow in terms of outcomes” rather than joining together position player defensive value for balls in play and walks/plunkings/strikeouts/homers (i.e., FIP) on the pitching end. Not surprisingly, there is very little difference between BaseRuns and WAR-wins — probably because BaseRuns is largely only meant to differentiate in edge cases.

Where things get weird is that the Braves are pretty good by BaseRuns, and very mediocre by team fWAR. This is the franchise’s second-largest fWAR-versus-BaseRuns gap, after 2010 (86 by WAR-wins, 93 by BaseRuns, and 91 actual wins).

Worth noting that the Tigers (78 WAR-wins, 86 BaseRuns wins, 73 wins) and the Giants (69 WAR-wins, 77 BaseRuns wins, 64 wins) are also in Weird City. Especially the Tigers, who… I don’t even know what’s going on there. Woof, man. Honorable mention to the Rangers in the opposite direction: 82 WAR-wins, 75 BaseRuns wins, 78 actual wins.

Among the time periods examined (2001-2026 for WAR-wins versus actual wins, 2001-2025 for WAR-wins versus BaseRuns wins), the Braves are:

• Seventh in magnitude of outperforming their WAR-wins in terms of actual wins, literally a 99th percentile happenstance; and
• 20th in terms of WAR-wins lower than BaseRuns, a 97th percentile outcome (or, 54th in overall magnitude of disparity between the two, a 93rd percentile outcome).

Having seven more wins than your BaseRuns record isn’t weird. But having six fewer WAR-wins than your BaseRuns record? Yeah, that doesn’t happen all that often. Add it to the weird pile.

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Of course, what this all comes down to is the players. The players play, accumulate WAR, and thereby also inform BaseRuns (mostly doing the same thing in both cases). Whether the team wins or loses a given game isn’t super-related to WAR or BaseRuns because sequencing and the like comes into account.

Wait a minute… sequencing. Maybe this is all about sequencing. We’re on to something, a bit. The Braves do have the league’s fourth-highest clutch score offensively, suggesting that they hit a lot better in higher leverage than lower leverage. They have the exact same ranking on the pitching end, too. The actual splits aren’t very exciting, though. For hitting, they rank:

• 21st in batting outputs and 11th in batting outputs in low leverage;
• 19th and 18th, respectively, in medium leverage; and
• Tenth and ninth, respectively, in high leverage.

They’re unlucky in low leverage and pretty good (and not unlucky in the same way) in high leverage.

For pitching, they rank:

• 18th in FIP and 13th in xFIP in low leverage;
• 11th and 10th, respectively, in medium leverage; and
• Eighth and 17th, respectively, in high leverage.

The secret to the Braves’ success? It’s apparently not giving up homers in high leverage. That’ll do it. Why are the Braves weird like they are? Because their HR/FB in high leverage is 7.3 percent, while their HR/FB in medium leverage is 11.9 percent. That’s not the whole story, but imagine how this team looks if they give up eight more homers (I counted, that’s the difference in the HR/FB in high leverage) in high leverage. Sure, maybe they don’t then lose all of those games, or maybe they did lose some where they avoided a homer in high leverage but… eight falls right into that BaseRuns/WAR-wins/actual wins differential range. It’s not everything, but it’s something.

Three cheers for not giving up as many homers in high leverage en route to a division title!

By the way, here’s a list of Braves with 20 innings pitched and an FIP- of ten or more points lower than their xFIP-: Chris Sale, Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, Victor Mederos. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

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Okay, I was going to talk about players but got derailed. Here’s my final bit of “this team is weird” pelting. I’m going to give you three things in the table below:

1. Each position player projected to get 200-plus PAs in 2026, each starter projected to throw at least 67 innings, and each reliever projected to throw at least 22 innings;
2. Their projected playing time and WAR; and,
3. Their actual playing time and fWAR.

How do you think this is going to look like before you scroll down?

Honestly, good lord, what is even happening here. The Braves basically lost a full season of playing time among these projected guys (Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Murphy, and Ronald Acuña Jr.) — but moreso than that, this group of 11 was supposed to contribute above-average, 2.9 WAR-per-600 PAs play. Instead, they contributed… 1.9 WAR-per-600 PAs play.

Austin Riley is/was a nightmare basically all season, minus a few brief glimmers of something that wasn’t awful. Acuña has been awesome lately, but let’s not forget that even if you leave some xwOBA underperformance aside, his current .368 mark is tied for his second-lowest ever, and the run environment is better this year than in the other two years where he didn’t perform up to his lefty standards. Kim’s season was one of the biggest disasters we’ve seen from this franchise, closer to B.J. Upton than anything else — even if he too managed to kinda-sorta salvage it with some huge hits down the stretch. Murphy is either not fully healthy or not fully jiving with trying not to swing out of his shoes. Dominic Smith was supposed to be terrible and somehow ended up even worse in nearly 100 more PAs than anticipated.

Were there any big wins? Mauricio Dubon. That’s really it.

Did anyone else save the position players? Nope. These guys account for 16 of the team’s 16.8 position player fWAR, and 88 percent of their PAs. No player not projected to play a big role actually stepped in and “won” a big role. The best bench performance the Braves got was Eli White’s 0.6 fWAR in 144 PAs as a result of massive xwOBA overperformance, and they traded him to make roster room at the Trade Deadline anyway.

Pitchers, this almost feels like a typed-out version of a Lewis Black routine. (Do people even get this reference anymore?)

Yeah, Chris Sale is awesome. But… Spencer Strider? Terrible and barely pitched. Reynaldo Lopez? Not good, and barely pitched. Oh, Bryce Elder pitched a lot… and due to homers, somehow produced less on a rate basis than modest expectations. Spencer Schwellenbach? Let’s not even go there.

The good news for the pitching is that Sale was so freakin’ good that these guys didn’t really miss a beat, other than availability. They were projected to pitch at a rate of around 3.2 WAR per 200 innings, and they ended up at 3.0 WAR… except that they ended up pitching about two-thirds of the innings they were supposed to, collectively. Who filled the gap? Well, Martin Perez came in and played savior, with a funny 74/105/111 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line. Thanks, guy! We all know about Tyler Mahle, and he’s been huge. Still, that leaves about 50 innings unaccounted for, and, well, the guys the Braves tried in those innings pretty much got obliterated.

Aaand, that leads us to this, where we applaud Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes for A) being awesome, but also B) not allowing homers, which basically gave extra weight to their already-fantastic pitching.

Yes, the Braves fell short of about 100 innings in terms of projected “bullpen regulars,” but not having Joel Payamps around was addition by subtraction. Throw in Robert Suarez being great before getting hurt along with the Iglesias and Lee show, a nice showing from the other Dylan (Dodd), and the fact that Victor Mederos is apparently the key emblem of this team (87/71/110, you can hahaha that all the way to the bank), and I guess the point is that wherever things went terribly, it wasn’t in the bullpen.

Wanna add these together?

Consider that the team’s actual WAR from all sources, not just these prognosticated-to-be-key-contributors names is 32.6, so we’re not missing much (Tyler Mahle, Martin Perez, and mostly negative fWAR otherwise). Nearly every position player was worse! Chris Sale (and Tyler Mahle’s two months), awesome! Bullpen, awesome! The team still fell well short of what it was expected to do… but also, absolutely didn’t.

We’ve come full circle. This team is weird. Will the weirdness continue? I have no idea. Either way, I don’t think I’ll ever forget these guys. But, I will request that in 2027, they be a little less weird… and just win the normal way: by crushing the other team on both sides of the ball.

(Oh, and we haven’t even gotten into the whole Antoan Richardson mess, the challenging passivity, the way that almost no good team has had a month as bad as the Braves had in June… and it keeps going. But I was over 3,000 words. We can cover those later, when things calm down.)

Astros fans, your team is running on empty.

The problem is the pedal is already to the floor, the finish line is approaching, and there may not be anything left in the tank.

Once again, the Astros dug themselves a massive early-season hole. Once again, they somehow fought their way out of it and made September baseball matter.

But that comeback came at a price. Now we’re seeing it. The pitching staff looks exhausted.

The rotation spent much of the season battling injuries, inconsistency and an inability to consistently pitch deep into games. That forced the bullpen to carry an enormous workload just to keep the Astros’ season alive.

For months, those relievers answered the call. They covered innings. They protected leads. They compensated for short starts and helped drag this team back into contention.

But eventually, the bill comes due. It’s coming due now.

Ángel De Los Santos, AJ Blubaugh and Bryan King are among the pitchers who provided important innings and stretches of excellent baseball for this team. But at some point, arms get tired. Guys hit a wall. And when that happens in September, there’s no offseason reset button you can push to get them back to where they were in May, June or July.

The Astros needed their bullpen to survive the first five months. Now they desperately need that same bullpen to save their season. There may simply not be enough left in the tank.

How Did the Astros Get Here?

If you’re looking for where to place blame, start with roster construction. The Astros entered the season with an obvious imbalance. They had a surplus of infielders and a shortage of legitimate major league outfielders. It wasn’t a hidden problem.

It wasn’t something that suddenly appeared because of injuries. Everyone could see it. Yet somehow, an entire season has nearly passed and the problem was never adequately solved.

Waiver claims weren’t going to fix it. Reclamation projects weren’t going to fix it. The desperation moves at the trade deadline weren’t guaranteed to fix something that should have been addressed months earlier.

That brings us back to former general manager Dana Brown. Brown deserves criticism because he was the general manager and roster construction was part of his responsibility. But there’s an important question we may never be able to completely answer:

How much authority did Dana Brown actually have?

How many decisions were his, and how many were influenced or directed by owner Jim Crane and others within the organization? Brown is gone now, but the organizational structure remains. That’s why simply blaming the former general manager doesn’t solve everything.

Joe Espada Isn’t the Biggest Problem

I’ve criticized Joe Espada when I thought criticism was warranted. He has shortcomings. Every manager does. But considering the roster he’s been handed and the obstacles this team has faced, I believe Espada has done a better-than-average job getting the Astros back to the brink of another postseason appearance.

Think about everything he’s navigated. An early-season hole. An inconsistent rotation. A bullpen that was forced to absorb a massive workload. Injuries throughout the roster. An outfield that has been a problem virtually all season.

And yet the Astros continued winning enough games to matter in September.

If this team ultimately falls short of the postseason, Espada will inevitably receive some of the blame. That’s part of being the manager. But he shouldn’t be at the front of the line.

The bigger questions should be directed toward the people who constructed the roster and the system that produced it. That means Brown, and it also means Crane.

What Happens Next?

This is where the Astros could be approaching a fascinating—and potentially uncomfortable—offseason. The organization needs a new general manager. If Crane also decides to move on from Espada, it could need a new manager.

But here’s the question: How attractive are those jobs?

The Astros have been one of baseball’s premier organizations for nearly a decade. They’ve won championships, reached World Series, dominated their division and established a winning culture that most franchises would love to replicate.

That should make Houston an extremely desirable destination.

But prospective candidates are also going to want to understand exactly how the organization operates. How much authority will the next general manager actually have?

Who makes the final call on personnel decisions?

How much influence does ownership have on roster construction?

How much control does the manager have over his lineup and in-game decisions compared with the front office and analytics department?

Those aren’t insignificant questions.

Dusty Baker publicly expressed frustration at times with aspects of modern organizational decision-making during his tenure. More recently, there have been questions and reports surrounding how much influence the front office and analytics staff have over lineup construction.

Whether every rumor is accurate or not, perception matters when you’re trying to attract the best baseball people available. If candidates believe they’re going to be held accountable for decisions they don’t completely control, that’s something Crane will have to address.

The Players Deserved Better

This might be the most frustrating part of all. I feel for the players in that clubhouse. They’ve battled through injuries. They’ve overcome a terrible start. They’ve watched teammates go down and roles change. They’ve dealt with a revolving door in the outfield and a pitching staff that has been asked to absorb far too much. And they still found a way to matter.

They kept fighting. They kept winning. They kept themselves alive deep into September.

If I’m a veteran leader in that clubhouse—whether it’s Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa or another established voice—I’d want answers from ownership after the season.

Not excuses. Answers.

What is the plan?

Who’s making the baseball decisions?

How is this roster going to be constructed differently?

What is ownership prepared to do to give this clubhouse the support it needs to compete for another championship?

Because these players have spent an entire season fighting to overcome deficiencies that shouldn’t have existed for this long.

This Offseason Has to Be About More Than Changing Names

Maybe the Astros still find a way. Maybe there’s one more run left in them. Maybe this battered pitching staff finds another gear, the offense gets hot and Houston somehow reaches October again. Considering everything we’ve watched from this franchise over the years, I wouldn’t completely count them out until they’re officially eliminated.

But regardless of how this season ends, Crane has some difficult questions to answer. Replacing Dana Brown alone won’t fix the Astros. Replacing Joe Espada won’t automatically fix them either.

If Houston truly wants to remain one of baseball’s elite organizations, the Astros need to examine the entire structure of their baseball operation—from roster construction to analytics to the relationship between the manager, general manager and ownership.

Because right now, the Astros aren’t just fighting their opponents. They’re fighting exhaustion. They’re fighting roster deficiencies. They’re fighting the consequences of problems that were visible months ago and never adequately addressed. This team has spent the entire season digging itself out of another hole.

The question isn’t only whether the Astros have enough left to reach the playoffs. It’s whether the organization understands why they were forced to dig out of that hole in the first place.

And until that question is answered, changing the names on the office doors may not change much at all.

Spencer Jones is finally gaining some momentum at the plate and earning his spot on the postseason roster after making some needed adjustments. Who does he have to thank, you might ask?

Aaron Judge’s hitting coach, perhaps.

Jones, whose height and build are very similar to the Yankees captain, first met with Judge’s hitting coach, Richard Schenk, during the offseason to make adjustments to his stance. Although he may still struggle with frequent strikeouts, Jones is making a lot of positive progress that has helped him earn his place on this team.

The 25-year-old outfielder is hitting a .279 average with a .343 on-base percentage and .475 slugging percentage in September. Among Yankees, his .819 OPS and 130 wRC+ for the month are topped only by Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger, helping boost a Bombers lineup that sagged in August. After dealing with a sore left foot that kept him sidelined on Saturday, Jones returned to the lineup prepared to make some noise and launched a 448-foot homer off Corbin Burnes during the series finale against the Diamondbacks.

Back-to-Back Baby Bombs 😤

A 448 ft. BOMB from Spencer Jones 💣 pic.twitter.com/2vEi2sHLVQ

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) September 20, 2026

With Grisham still recovering from a right hamstring strain, Jones will be a valuable asset in the outfield—be it in center or right—who adds some depth to the lineup as well. It’s also worth noting that Aaron Judge, who joined the IL on Friday with a right calf strain, will likely be sidelined for the beginning of the playoff run. As long as Jones can focus on developing his swing through these critical postseason at-bats, he has the potential to help the Yankees go far.

Beginning tomorrow afternoon, the Yankees will face the Rays in a critical four-game series that will ultimately determine the division and could even serve as a playoff preview. If he can stay consistent with his offensive production, Jones might just be the secret the Pinstripes need to seize the American League.

LOS ANGELES — Emmet Sheehan continued his late-season hot streak with another strong outing on Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, with nine strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings, allowing only a single and a walk.

“I’ve loved the version of Emmet we’ve seen the last three outings,” manager Dave Roberts said Sunday. “He’s been fantastic.”

Sheehan in three starts over the last two weeks since rejoining the Dodgers has allowed only one run in 17 innings, with 24 strikeouts against only three walks. It came after spending most of August in Triple-A.

“I don’t know if I proved anything to myself,” Sheehan said. “It was more just getting a couple of things right, and I’m in a much better spot now.”

Sheehan was in the Dodgers rotation from opening day through August 2, when he allowed three home runs and five runs in a loss to the Boston Red Sox. Twenty starts into the season, Sheehan wasn’t getting results (5.29 ERA, belying his 4.00 xERA), and was having issues holding his velocity throughout his starts. He was optioned to Oklahoma City the next day.

That time in the minors was productive for Sheehan. After a planned shortened outing in which he allowed two runs in 2/3 of an inning, Sheehan struck out 24 over three starts with one run allowed in 17 1/3 innings. That earned him a Pacific Coast League pitcher of the week award and pitcher of the month honors for August.

“My confidence stayed the same the whole time. I knew the coaches down there were going to help me, and I was going to get right,” Sheehan said. “I took that approach going into it. I wasn’t helping the team here, so I needed that a little bit. I feel like in a good spot.”

“We’ve seen confidence. When you’re essentially fighting for your life, to create an opportunity for yourself, that’s what I see. There’s urgency,” Roberts said. “I like the way he’s trusting his stuff, he’s in a good spot physically, and the performance has been fantastic.”

One tweak Sheehan made was throwing his curveball more. In his last three outings with the Dodgers, he threw the curve 21.9 percent of the time, up from his 12.3 percent over the course of the season.

“It’s something, Connor [McGuiness, assistant pitching coach], Mark [Prior, pitching coach], and I and the coaches down at Triple-A have been working on a lot is expanding the front-to-back game with the fastball and the curveball,” Sheehan said. “Some guys ended up throughout the season sitting more mid-speed, slider, changeup on me. I think having that change of speeds has been really important.

On Sunday against San Francisco, Sheehan induced 15 of his 18 swinging strikes on his fastball and curveball and finished off five of his nine strikeouts with those two pitches.

Sheehan’s first 26 outings this year were starts, but on Sunday he followed an opener, at the very least getting him oriented about his possible relief role in the postseason. After three solid months in the rotation last season, Sheehan pitched in relief in October, with mixed results (8.59 ERA, 13 hits and five walks in 7 1/3 innings). He allowed runs in each of his four appearances, though rebounded with 2 2/3 scoreless innings in extras in the marathon Game 3, when got three outs with two strikeouts in a scoreless outing in the seventh and eighth innings of Game 7.

“The routine of everything can be a little hard to adjust to, so having that experience helps a lot. Getting back into that, I know what I need to do to be ready to go in the game,” Sheehan said. “Execution was off in the first couple, but then I felt better as it went on.”

Sheehan returned Sunday when Tarik Skubal went on the bereavement list, and the plan is for Sheehan to be optioned back to Triple-A, perhaps as early as Tuesday when Roki Sasaki is likely activated from the injured list straight into a high-leverage relief role.

Roberts on Sunday said the plan is for Sheehan to start on Saturday in the Triple-A championship game, provided Oklahoma City beats Las Vegas in the best-of-3 PCL championship starting Tuesday. But after that, Sheehan will almost certainly be on the playoff roster. Most likely he’ll be in a relief role, but that might depend on how Blake Snell progresses over the next two weeks from his left groin tightness.

“After [Sheehan] makes that last start, we’ll evaluate where we are as a staff,” Roberts said.

“Whatever role they want me to do going forward, I’m ready to do it,” Sheehan said. “It was nice to get that experience coming out of the pen.”

Lefthanded pitcher MacKenzie Gore will start the series opener against the New York Mets on Tuesday, September 21, 2026, the team announced today.

I wrote at length earlier today about the Rangers’ final six regular season games this week, much of which was predicated on the assumption (or hope, perhaps would be the better word) that Nathan Eovaldi would start on Tuesday, as well as, potentially, in Game 162 in Minnesota on Sunday. This apparently will not be happening.

Gore will be making his American League leading 33rd start of the season on Tuesday, the most of any Ranger pitcher since Lance Lynn made 33 starts in 2019. If Gore does in fact start Sunday’s season finale in Minnesota, that would give him 34 starts, the most for any Ranger since C.J. Wilson in 2011.

Gore last pitched on September 16 against the Boston Red Sox, so the Rangers are keeping the current rotation order for now, though a decision will have to be made in regards to who steps in for Cal Quantrill, whose spot in the rotation would have come due, if the current order continues, on Friday, when the Rangers begin their series in Minnesota. If Eovaldi is taking Quantrill’s rotation spot, and the rest of the rotation stays the same, he would pitch Friday in Minnesota, with Jacob deGrom going Saturday and, it would appear, Gore on Sunday. The current order would also have Cody Bradford pitching Wednesday and Kumar Rocker on Thursday in Arlington against the Mets, but no Rangers announcements for those games have been made.

Gore has a disappointing 4.67 ERA in 165.2 innings this year, though he has a 4.07 xERA and a 3.89 FIP. He departed his last start, last Wednesday against Boston, after four innings due to shoulder and back spasms, but reported after the game that he felt it was not something that would be an issue for him going forward.

Well friends, there it is. The San Francisco Giants entered the weekend with just one of their seven Minor League Baseball affiliates in action. And now that number is zero.

And so begins the final Minor League roundup of the season, as there are no more games until the sun disappears and returns again … no, not tomorrow, but spring.

Here’s what happened on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

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News

Just one small piece of news: Outfielder Bo Davidson (No. 4 CPL) may have ended the year with an extended stint in AAA, but he still did enough in the 1st half of the season to be named an All-Star in the AA Eastern League. Very well deserved!

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AAA Sacramento (79-68)

Friday: Sacramento River Cats lost to the Reno Aces 6-4 [box score]
Saturday: Sacramento River Cats lost to the Reno Aces 7-4 [box score]
Sunday: Sacramento River Cats lost to the Reno Aces 4-1 [box score]

It was a great season for the Giants Minor League affiliates, and that certainly includes Sacramento. But the struggles of the Major League roster have certainly had a trickle-down effect, as San Francisco repeatedly pulled talent from the River Cats, who then had to sap talent from elsewhere. And so it’s not really a surprise that both Sacramento and AA Richmond ended the season on serious skids, which included the River Cats losing all 3 games of their final weekend. So it goes. Sometimes the best things end poorly!

Fittingly, there weren’t a lot of performances to highlight. But right fielder/left fielder Bo Davidson (No. 4 CPL) ended what possibly could be his final Minor League season on a high note, as he did a little bit of everything. The lefty went 6-10 over the weekend, smashed a double, drew 2 walks, was hit by a pitch, stole a base, registered 2 outfield assists, and struck out 3 times.

Bo keeps things going with an RBI double 💪 pic.twitter.com/popdNkrEjM

— Sacramento River Cats (@RiverCats) September 19, 2026

With that, Davidson ends his debut AAA stint with a glistening .923 OPS and a 138 wRC+ over 52 games (despite a slow start following a midseason promotion). Perhaps most impressively, he struck out just 18.8% of the time in Sacramento.

Now comes a question that could be answered in the next few hours: will Davidson get to make his MLB debut this year? The beat reporters have suggested that, had he not fouled a ball off his foot resulting in a contusion, Davidson would have been called up last week, instead of Scott Bandura. Instead, he stayed in AAA, got healthy, finished the season with a bang … and now there are still 6 games left on the MLB schedule. Perhaps it depends on whether Jung Hoo Lee, who left Sunday’s game after fouling a ball off a tender region, is going to be placed on the IL or not.

Unfortunately, ending the season on a high note could not be said for another player who is in consideration for a late-season MLB debut: LHP Joe Whitman (No. 26 CPL). Whitman getting the call to the bigs seems less likely than Davidson, but if the Giants have already made the decision to roster him ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, they could give him a cup of coffee, especially since Logan Webb has been shut down.

Whitman ended the season on an absolute tear, but unfortunately the final data point was a poor one: the 2023 comp-round pick started on Saturday and, while he did make it through 5.1 innings, it was far from a notable performance, as he gave up a whopping 10 hits, which included a home run and 2 doubles.

Hits happen, and, on the bright side, Whitman did a great job throwing strikes, as 67 of his 88 pitches went for strikes, and he issued just 1 walk. But he wasn’t missing bats, as he not only gave up 10 knocks, but registered just 2 strikeouts on the day, and ultimately gave up 5 runs (though just 3 were earned).

It was still a very successful season for Whitman, especially given how mediocre his 2025 campaign was. The Kent State alum, who turned 25 last week, began the year repeating AA, and was arguably the top pitcher in the Eastern League, where he posted a 3.22 ERA and a 2.37 FIP in 10 starts, with 11.6 strikeouts and just 2.3 walks per 9 innings. Things were, understandably, a bit tougher when he made it to the Pacific Coast League, where he finished with a 3.74 ERA and a 4.73 FIP in 22 games (14 starts), but only had 7.4 strikeouts per 9 innings (though he also only had 2.5 walks).

He’ll need to work on those strikeouts, but there’s some fairly promising stuff in there, especially for a AAA newbie: of the 89 PCL pitchers with at least 50 innings this year, Whitman was 11th in ERA, 16th in FIP, and 8th in walks per 9. Now he just needs to learn how to throw pitchers that aren’t so hittable: complementing the low strikeout rate was a very-high .279 batting average against.

Other than Davidson and Whitman and their respective MLB watches, there wasn’t a lot going on over the weekend. A pair of hitters capped feel-good years with home runs, as designated hitter Eddys Leonard and catcher Fernando Gonzalez both hit the ball over the fence (the former a 3-run shot on Saturday; the latter a solo blast on Sunday).

Leonard otherwise had a tough weekend, hitting 2-12 with 4 strikeouts, but it will be a year to remember for the 25-year old righty. 5 years after getting rostered by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a Rule 5 protection (and a few years after using up his Minor League options), Leonard finally got a chance to make his MLB debut in August. He has since been outrighted, but after post an .812 OPS and a 113 wRC+, while playing in both the infield and the outfield, he should have no shortage of Minor League opportunities to choose from next year.

As for Gonzalez, a 24-year old taken in the 20th round of the 2024 draft, he had a very mild-mannered year with Low-A San Jose, where he posted a .661 OPS and a 79 wRC+ in 42 games. But with the Giants having roster crunches throughout the Minors, the Georgia Bulldog was sent to AAA for emergency depth to end the year.

Gonzalez, who didn’t play Friday or Saturday, but went 1-2 with a hit by pitch and a strikeout on Sunday, made the most of his time in AAA, posting a .918 OPS and a 148 wRC+ in 10 games, while doing an impressive job behind the dish for someone with exactly 0 games in High-A or AA. That will earn him some fans in the organization.

Third baseman Parks Harber (No. 17 CPL), who had a very impressive year but ended the season in quite a slump, had another tough go of it over the weekend, hitting just 1-12 with a walk, a stolen base, a strikeout, and an error. The righty slugger, who turns 25 this week, had a delayed start to the season after suffering an injury during a (very impressive) Spring Training showing, but still destroyed AA pitchers to the tune of an .879 OPS and a 131 wRC+ in 66 games. After getting promoted to Sacramento, he laid waste to the PCL for a while, before hitting a wall as the season neared an end. Check out his Sacramento splits:

First 32 games:40-128, 5 home runs, 0 triples, 8 doubles, 18 walks, 33 strikeouts
Next 22 games: 15-87, 1 home run, 1 triple, 1 double, 11 walks, 26 strikeouts

That slump brought him down to just a .739 OPS and a 98 wRC+ in his debut AAA stint, and the question becomes: did he struggle because he ran out of steam, because he ran out of luck, or because the league made some adjustments and now he needs to make counter-adjustments? Either way, those struggles don’t dim his star, and honestly, if you predicted that Harber leads the Giants in left field starts next year, I wouldn’t call you dumb!

Whitman was the only pure starting pitcher over the weekend. On Friday the River Cats used an opener, as MLB LHP Sam Hentges made his lone rehab appearance before a staggering bit of roster mismanagement (he was activated to the MLB squad for a game that he was not available to pitch in). Hentges struck out 2 batters in a perfect inning before giving way to RHP Darien Smith, who struggled in a bulk innings role, giving up 6 hits, 2 home runs, 2 walks, and 4 runs total in 3 innings, with 2 strikeouts. Smith, who had a 3.93 ERA but a 5.39 FIP across 15 games in AAA, AA, and the Complex League, lost much of the year to injury, but is headed to the desert for the Arizona Fall League.

And on Sunday, LHP Seth Lonsway started but pitched sparingly, tossing 2 perfect innings with 2 strikeouts. Lonsway didn’t have a notable season in the Minors, as the soon-to-turn 28-year old posted just a 5.11 ERA and a 6.24 FIP in 24 AAA games, with only 5.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. But it was still a year to remember, as he made his MLB debut. Unfortunately, Lonsway will almost certainly be a roster casualty this offseason, though the Giants will likely be able to outright him and keep him in Sacramento next year as a depth option.

For the 2nd year in a row, RHP Tyler Vogel got moved up to AAA for the final week of the season. After posting a 3.35 ERA and a 4.63 FIP in AA this year, Vogel made a lone appearance for Sacramento on Saturday and gave up a hit, a walk, and a run in an inning of work, with 1 strikeout.

Nice season-ending outings for RHPs Braxton Roxby, Will Bednar (No. 24 CPL), and R.J. Dabovich, as well as LHP Nick Zwack. All 4 have a whole bunch of talent in their arms, and we’ll see if they can work their way into the bullpen plans next year (though Dabovich is entering Minor League free agency).

Thanks for reading all the Minor League recaps this year, everyone!

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Home run tracker

18 — Eddys Leonard — [AAA]
4 — Fernando Gonzalez — [1 in AAA; 2 in Low-A; 1 in ACL]

It’s not remotely the right time to start talking about offseason movement, but there is movement afoot. Two of Craig Breslow’s assistant GMs, Mike Groopman and Taylor Smith, have already conducted preliminary interviews for the big chair in Sacramento after the A’s fired Dave Forst back in August. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)

Here in Boston, though, we’re unlikely to see a search for a new boss in a while. Craig Breslow earned himself quite a bit of rope this season, thanks to a decisive move that paid off big time in firing Alex Cora. “I believed in the players that we had, and I felt it was really important that we acted definitively and decisively when we did, so that we could create an environment around the players that was supportive, that would allow them to thrive, and they responded,” he said. “And, while there may have been some people that questioned what this group was capable of, I think they answered.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

And here’ s a look at some of the key moments of the season that got this team where it is today. Remember the ninth inning comeback against the Mets that came after that long-delayed flight? How about Caleb Durbin’s home run off Cam Schlittler? (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

But, strangely enough, when it came time to clinch the playoffs, it wasn’t a Red Sox player who did the dirty work, though it was a Red Sox legacy player. “And the man with the game-winning three-run homer that would, in the end, send both the Braves and the Red Sox to the postseason? Well, baseball is quite sentimental, and it also has a sense of humor, so, obviously, it was Mike Yastrzemski.“ (Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, MLB.com)

But the fact that the Sox clinched on a loss didn’t dampen the celebration. “There was a lot of beer!” said Payton Tolle. “It was a slobberknocker.” (Rob Bradford, WEEI)

But before the slobberknocker could get slobbin’, Chad Tracy addressed his team to sum up the season that was. “I want to express gratitude for everyone in the room,” he said. “I’m so grateful for you guys, for our staff, for everybody. You stared impossible in the face. The position we were in, you beat it back and said, ‘The hell with that, we’re going to the playoffs.’ And you did.” (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

So the Sox are in the dance. But for how long? That’s anyone’s guess, but Red Sox fans are apparently more optimistic than the fans of any other American league team. (Stephen J. Nesbitt, The Athletic)

Paul Skenes believes he has the answer to his velocity dip this season.

The Pirates star has not shown his usual prowess this season, and part of it, he thinks, is due to his participation in the World Baseball Classic in March, as he told Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

“There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that,” Skenes explained. “But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit. It definitely affected the year. Unfortunately, I don’t think I’m the only one.”

Skenes pitched a total of 8 ⅓ innings in two tournament starts for Team USA in the WBC, allowing one earned run.

Skenes continued and clarified that the drop in velocity was intentional at first, but over the course of the season he was unable to ramp up to his usual level.

“Usually, that time of year, you’re kind of ramping up and it’s a little bit slow,” Skenes said. “You can kind of get onto the slope and find your body. One live [batting practice], you’re topping at 97 [mph], and then the next you’re 98, 99. And that wasn’t the case this year…looking back I don’t think that really helped.”

Skenes hasn’t been dreadful this season, posting a 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 192 strikeouts in 168 innings, but it’s not what Pittsburgh and baseball fans have come to expect from the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year and 2025 NL Cy Young winner.

The lack of a 2027 WBC should help Skenes go through his normal offseason and ramping-up period, which the Pirates will need next season if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

With just six games to go, the Diamondbacks have a record of 82-74. While not technically eliminated from post-season contention yet, their playoff hopes would require a spectacular confluence of events in the first half of the week, probably followed by a sweep of the Padres in San Diego next weekend. Obviously, that’s disappointing. But on the other hand, the D-backs have, albeit in a small way, actually done better than what most neutral expectations were for team at the beginning of the year. Let’s start off by reviewing what various parties predicted Arizona would do before Opening Day.

The metrics

• Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA): 78.4 wins. Our friends over at Purple Row captured this prediction in their preview of the division. They (and not BP) said, “The D-Backs still have some question marks and might not emerge as one of MLB’s top teams, but they certainly are positioned to push for the playoffs if they see a return to form for Gallen and some improvements to their pitching numbers overall. However, an uptick in pitching could unfortunately pair with a regression in batting, threatening those chances.”
• Fangraphs: 81-81. These came out in late January, once Dan Szymborski had finished running ZIPS for all thirty teams. We’ll get more into those later, as we look at which individuals out- or under-performed their projections. But there isn’t much said about them at the overall level, except for “ZIPS remains unsure of Arizona’s rotation.” However, at the end of spring training, the expected tally was still basically 81-81, with a 31% chance of making the post-season.

The pundits

• George Castillo, ESPN: 81-81. “Will the pitching staff sink Arizona’s playoff chances again? The Diamondbacks can score. Two years ago, they paced the majors in runs scored. Last year, they finished sixth… And yet, the Diamondbacks have not reached the postseason since their surprise run to the World Series in 2023, largely because their pitching staff ranked 27th in ERA in 2024 and 23rd last season.”
• Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report: 82-80. “Lovullo has shown an ability to get the most out of his teams, and with Corbin Caroll, Ketel Marte and Gerlado Perdomo anchoring his lineup, this is going to be a competitive team. They just have too much working against them in terms of pitching injuries.”
• Gabe Lacques, USA Today: 81-81. “In coming weeks, Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82) corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana will turn 35 and 40, respectively. They’ll need some gulps from the fountain of youth to ensure the bottom of the lineup isn’t an arid wasteland.”
• Ryan Phillips, Sports Illustrated: 77-85. “The Diamondbacks signed several late-career veterans, searching for the magic of 2023. But Arizona’s roster doesn’t look anywhere near pennant-worthy. Manager Torey Lovullo has just two playoff appearances in nine seasons.”
• Fred Zinkle, Yahoo! Sports: 82-80. “This figures to be a retooling year in Arizona, while the organization waits to get Burnes back in 2027. Success this season might look like determining which players, particularly among Del Castillo, Lawlar, Pfaadt, Nelson and Thomas, can be part of the next wave of success. There will also be more trade rumors around Marte in July, and the front office will have to decide whether to recoup a package of prospects or keep Marte in hopes of competing in 2027.”

The group exercises

• Sports books: 79.5 wins. This was more or less the consensus across the board, with the line being drawn here by Caesar’s, Draft Kings and BetMGM.
• Arizona Sports roundtable: 81.8 wins. The radio station polled 14 of their staff, with numbers ranging from 75 to 86 wins. They also asked if the team would make the playoffs, and “No” won that vote, ten of the fourteen polled saying there’d be no post-season.
• AZ SnakePit writers: 84.2 wins. The highest prediction and not unexpectedly, the usual optimism prevailing. This is in line with history over the last couple of years, the 2025 prediction being a (now somewhat embarrassing!) 91.3 wins, and the 2024 prediction also being higher than reality could deliver, at 86.7 wins. And that 2024 figure was before we signed Jordan Montgomery, which seemed like a big deal at the time…
• Fan vote: 84 wins. This answer is based off the median – half above, half below – for SnakePit voters in our poll. The most popular category was actually higher, at 86-88 wins. But that only got 21%, barely edging out the 83-85 win group, at 20%. The “tail” below that was also longer, bringing the median down.

A straight average of the eleven predictions above comes in at 81 wins – an expectation of just one more victory than the previous season. As we head into the final week of the season, the Diamondbacks are already above that. There is even a significant chance of reaching 85 wins, which would be better than any of the 11 pre-season projections mentioned above. Taking two of three in Colorado and one in San Diego would get us there. Get one less, and 84 wins is certainly very plausible. That would only be (very narrowly) surpassed by the SnakePit writers’ poll. But what are the individual contributors to the moderate over-performance?

Winners and losers

When it comes to looking at individual players, we are mostly going off the 2026 ZIPS projections for Arizona. [I had to chase down some players not present on that page, no longer with AZ] As with any projection system, these are expectations, not guarantees. Inevitably, reality will differ, and that’s no mark at all against the effort Dan Szymborski puts in to them. Don’t worry about the playing time numbers, especially for those we didn’t see. Cristofer Torin did not quite make 129 appearances. We’re looking only at the fWAR expected tallies, compared to the actual ones. Those are through Saturday night’s game, although with only about 4% of the schedule remaining, I didn’t bother pro-rating.

Hitters: Over- and under-performers

• Gabriel Moreno 4.9 vs. 3.3
• Nolan Arenado 2.7 vs. 1.9
• ———
• Carlos Santana 0.6 vs. -0.5
• Ketel Marte 2.3 vs 4.3
• Lourdes Gurriel 1.3 vs. -1.0

I’ve not listed on either side, players like Jordan Lawlar, whose playing time didn’t come close to the ZIPS figure, for reasons beyond their control. Though technically, Santana and Gurriel’s didn’t either. So yes, I am being very arbitrary about this. No question who the team’s MVP has been, and I’m sure Mike Hazen is regretting not being able to ink Moreno to a long-term contract last winter. The asking price will now be considerably higher, and a significant arbitration bump will be coming down Gaby Lane next year (lockout permitting). Arenado has also been everything we could have wanted, and more.

On the downside, hopes that Santana might be able to play a competent first-base proved wildly optimistic, and the team didn’t really have a Plan B. That’s why we have Ildemaro Vargas getting more at-bats at 1B than anyone else. This was a mistake by Hazen. The discovery Gurriel was now well below replacement level in left was also unpleasant, and Max Kepler wasn’t the answer either. Then there’s the whole Marte situation. Be very interesting to see what happens there over the winter, because if the sharp drop-off in production was not a blip, those four remaining guaranteed years might not be a lot of fun.

Pitchers: Over- and under-performers

• Eduardo Rodriguez: 3.1 vs. 1.5
• Michael Soroka: 2.5 vs. 0.9
• Juan Morillo: 1.5 vs. -0.1
• Brandyn Garcia: 1.3 vs. 0.0
• ———
• Zac Gallen: -0.1 vs. 1.8
• Merrill Kelly: -0.2 vs. 1.9
• Corbin Burnes: 0.0 vs. 2.6

Very much a rotation of two halves. ERod and Soroka have both performed much better than expected, while Gallen and Kelly have been sore disappointments. We should have let Zac just walk, and the lack of suitors for his services in 2026 turned out to be the reddest of red flags. Kelly will be around next year, and there is hope in that he has been better of late. Small sample-size, but over the four games since the spat with the Cubs, where he may have discovered he was pitch-tipping, Merrill has a 2.86 ERA and 3.55 FIP. Anything like those figures in the remaining year of his contract will be a huge improvement. But Burnes’ extremely belated arrival might have hurt most of all.

Previous years have seen mocking of Mike Hazen for his dumpster diving approach to building a bullpen. But it has worked very well. Discounting Gallen, the eight other current members of the bullpen are earning a total of less than $13 million this year. That’s several million less than the Dodgers are paying Edwin Diaz alone this year, for 15.2 innings of work and a 10.34 ERA. Morillo, Garcia and Jonathan Loaisiga have thrown 171.2 combined innings for an ERA of 2.15. That has been worth a total of 3.9 fWAR, while the trio are getting paid only about $3 million between them. After years of quiet desperation, this bullpen has been quite the refreshing change.

Conclusions

Projections are always going to be wrong. If you look at the Fangraphs totals, there are some big misses: most notably under-estimating the Padres, and over-estimating the Mets. But five of the six teams at the top of the NL will indeed (almost certainly, I guess I should caveat) be among the six teams representing the league in the post-season. While it’s obviously disappointing again not to be in the playoffs, I think it’s encouraging to see the team surpassing expectations. The sharp improvement in the pitching, especially the bullpen, is hopefully something which can be sustained. Get some improved offense and if there is a 2027 season, I expect the D-backs again to be playing meaningful baseball into September.

Six games remain in the 2026 regular season.

All four teams still alive in the National League Wild Card race — the Cubs, Padres, Phillies and Diamondbacks — are off Monday. Thus they will begin Tuesday’s action with the same position and percentages noted in this article.

The Cubs and Padres are currently tied for the top Wild Card spot at 87-69, with the Cubs ahead because they own the tiebreaker with San Diego. The Phillies are one game back at 86-70 and the Diamondbacks are 82-74 and on the verge of elimination, four games behind the Phillies; their elimination number with the Cubs is 1, so the Cubs can clinch a Wild Card spot by defeating the Marlins Tuesday.

This is where it’s really fortunate that the Cubs have the tiebreaker over the Padres and Phillies. If all three teams wound up tied at the end of the regular season, the Cubs would get the first wild card spot. In that scenario they’d host the Phillies, because Philadelphia swept their season series 6-0 over San Diego. Here are all the various tiebreaker rules.

The article in The Athletic noting the odds and percentages for various postseason scenarios has been updated through Sunday’s games, so I thought today would be a good time to take a look at the various odds and chances.

First, here are the percentage odds for the possible postseason matchups for the first two rounds:

As compared to the last post I made on this topic on Saturday, the chances for the Cubs to be the No. 4 seed (and top Wild Card) have increased from 40 percent to 60 percent. The Cubs still control their own destiny — win out and they’re the top Wild Card.

The Brewers are very likely to be the No. 1 National League seed. They currently lead the Dodgers by two games and hold the tiebreaker.

Now, here are the Cubs’ percentages of making the postseason and where they would wind up, based on each possible W/L record in the remaining six games:

Aa you can see, the Cubs’ chances of being that No. 4 seed are better than 50 percent even if they go just 3-3 over the six games, and they increase to 99 percent if they can go at least 5-1.

The worst-case scenarios are going 1-5 or 0-6, which could dump them into the No. 6 position. But with the Marlins coming to town, that seems very unlikely. Miami is 31-47 on the road this year and so the Cubs ought to take at least two of three from them at Wrigley Field. Then the Cubs travel to Boston, where the Red Sox are likely going to be locked in to the second wild card spot in the American League before that series begins. Hopefully the Cubs can win at least one, maybe two, at Fenway Park.

That would leave the Cubs with either three or four wins, at minimum, this week and that’s even before considering what the other teams are doing. The Padres have to face the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium for a three-game series before finishing the season at home against the Diamondbacks. The Phillies are home, but face the teams with the best record in each league for a three-game series each, the Brewers and Rays. The Brewers still need to win to clinch home field throughout the postseason, and the Rays have a magic number of 2 to clinch the AL East. In any case, neither is a pushover for the Phillies.

So the Cubs have a pretty good chance of hosting a Wild Card series next week at Wrigley Field. And as always, we await developments.

This week, Gabe and I were joined by the beat writer for the Belleville News-Democrat, Jeff Jones! You can also find his extended written thoughts at Words About Birds for a very cost-effective price. Now that the Cardinals’ playoff hopes are mathematically exhausted, we start to turn the majority of our focus to the offseason and what might lie ahead. Topics ranging from big picture to player-focused and everything in between were covered this week, plus Jeff unearthed some little-known tidbits that you’re not going to want to miss!

00:00 Introduction to Viva Elberto’s Podcast
00:12 Meet the Hosts: Jake, Gabe, and Scott
00:23 Introduction to the Season’s End
02:29 Assessing the Cardinals’ Season
08:14 Offseason Strategies and Market Dynamics
11:39 Third Base Dilemma and Internal Options
13:01 Identifying Key Roster Questions
17:03 Catching Situation and Future Prospects
21:14 Masyn Winn’s Long-Term Future
23:19 Evaluating Player Extensions and Future Prospects
26:06 Assessing Bullpen Dynamics and Player Retention
30:27 Exploring the Future of Young Talent
33:10 Analyzing the Impact of Injuries on Player Performance
36:56 Memorable Moments of the Season
38:43 Social Media and Player Perception
40:45 Where to Find More Insights and Coverage

Spotify:

YouTube:

Transcript:

Jake Wood (00:23)
Welcome to the Viva El Birdos Podcast. My name is Jake Wood and I write for VivaElBirdos.com. I am the host of the show and I am joined by fellow writer Gabe Simonds. Please be sure to like and subscribe to our channel. We are available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all of your favorite audio streaming platforms. Tonight’s guest has one of the premier seats in the Cardinals vehicle, being one of the few remaining beat reporters that cover the team. He writes for the Belleville News Democrat and you can read his additional coverage at WordsAbout Birds. Please welcome back Jeff Jones.

Jeff Jones (01:14)
Hi guys, how we doin’?

Jake Wood (01:17)
Hi Jeff, thanks for hopping on with us again tonight. You know, the Cardinals closed out their final home stand of the season today, and you know you only have one series left of coverage in Milwaukee, so you let us know before the big black cloud of the offseason descends on the topic of St. Louis baseball.

Jeff Jones (01:35)
Yeah, you know, as we as we we filed out of the clubhouse today, there’s there’s a lobby there that you have to pass through to head into there, and there’s a mark and whiteboard kind of on the wall up there where where the the gentleman who works security in there, you know, is the date, the you know, the game times, all that stuff, and he’ll use like a fun fact of the day or whatever. So, and it’s, you know, next game, next time, all that stuff. So when we walked out of there today, he had changed around the board, and you know, next date, April first or dot dot dot, right? So sort

Jake Wood (02:01)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (02:01)
Of Sort of an ominous way to walk out of the ballpark this afternoon. Yeah.

Jake Wood (02:06)
Absolutely. You know, I wanna start here. We came into the season with question mark on top of question mark at various spots across the roster. And I think for the first time in maybe three to four years, we’re walking out of the season with more questions answered than questions that persist. You know, how much clarity did the Cardinals gain from this twenty twenty-six season in your estimation?

Jeff Jones (02:29)
Yeah,

I mean this is this was a topic of conversation several times this weekend, right? Just by the nature of being the last homestand and the last time. A lot of folks, I think pretty much everybody except for Derek and Brendan and me, are probably gonna be around Oli at least until the offseason. and and you know, there was a lot of discussion about, is this a successful season? What were the positives? What did you get out of this season? And the thing that Oli Marmol was really consistent and really insistent about was that they feel like they got a lot of answers.

They, you know, not all the answers are yes on all of the guys, right? But they feel like they definitely kind of know what spot they’re in heading into the offseason. I think that, you know, push comes to shove, they would tell you that they know who are who’s starting at eight of the nine positions on opening day next season, right now. I think they would be probably pretty comfortable with that assessment. And that’s not nothing. You know, those are not always going to be all of the right answers. They’re not going to get 100% on all these tests, right? But they feel like they have answers for most of what they needed to know this year.

Gabe (03:26)
One of those things that I guess the Cardinals appear to think they have answered is Nathan Church at center field. And my question to you is, what are they seeing that he will improve upon or get better at? Or I’m assuming they don’t think how he played this year is like his potential because he wasn’t that good, honestly. But did they like, inform you in some way of, like, this is what we see Nathan Church at the future, cause he didn’t really have the top prospect pedigree or the stats really to back up being as confident as they appear to be in him for the center field of the future?

Jeff Jones (04:01)
You know, and so I agree. He definitely didn’t. And that to me has always kind of been an interesting part of the way that we talk about Nathan Church, right? He and Victor Scott are really pretty much the same age. Church is a couple of months older. There’s not much of a gap between them. And you’re right, the church definitely didn’t have the prospect pedigree at all. You know, a guy who climbed from Peoria to the big leagues last year, sort of flown under the radar in a lot of ways, right? But I posed this question hypothetically to a couple of people this weekend, and it kind of interests me. If you took Nathan Church’s exact stat line from this year, that took froze it, took his

Gabe (04:38)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (04:39)
Name off and put Victor Scott’s name on it; I wonder what the reaction people would have to that season. Right? If they would say that’s not going to be good enough, or if they would say, this is a guy who took a step, and maybe there is development there.

And I don’t- I know that there are differences there, right? Obviously the power profile is different. If you saw a stat line for Vic that’s at 10 home runs and 50 RBI, you’d go, what happened there? Why didn’t he steal any bases? You know, so there are things that don’t quite fit. But I think the big thing with Church is at the end of this year, he is he’s gonna be a two-win player, which is not, you know, it’s not nothing. It is at least some measure of, you know, a guy who can contribute. I do think that saying that they are sure that Nathan Church is gonna is goes into the winner as their center fielder for next year is not the same thing as them saying Nathan Church is the guy who is a center fielder on a championship team. Right. I think that there is a distinction between those two. And I think, you know, if you could get the absolute truth out of the folks who make the decisions, they would tell you that probably a contending team has Nathan Church as its fourth outfielder. I think that is a reasonable way to look at it. But that next year’s team given what they have, what they know is coming, what they know the market looks like, they’re willing to commit to that now because they have a pretty good idea of what might be outside and that they’re not gonna go get it.

Gabe (05:58)
I will say Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, I think, have a big disagreement over his defense, I guess. Because that was where I was coming from with

Jeff Jones (06:02)
They do. Yeah, they definitely do. Well, and yeah.

Gabe (06:07)
the fangraphs version. I didn’t even know he had two war by baseball reference, honestly.

Jeff Jones (06:11)
Yeah, and and and and so part of that is a little bit of what we talked about with where they can see improvements in him, right? Like the arm is average to below average, but it’s a center field arm, so it’s probably kind of in the meat of the curve of s what of what center field arms look like. And there was a lot of discussion this weekend about basically the things that they feel like they can get church to improve upon are coachable. Right? It’s a lot of things like focus, game awareness, pitch-to-pitch consistency.

All stuff that, like, they did that they don’t feel like he lacks skill for, just that they can coach into him. Right. There was an example that that that that Marvel gave this weekend, and he was talking about the Giants series earlier this week where Church had to play the late-night game and then come right back and play the 1215 first-pitch day game. And his explanation was that he intentionally did that because he wanted to see how Church reacted to the day game. He said he even pulled him aside before the day game and said, This is this is where you show it.

Right, like all this pre-pitch stuff, all the focus stuff that they’ve been working on. He said, Hey, day game after night game, it’s a thousand degrees, go do it. Right. And it probably wasn’t perfect, and it’s not gonna be perfect, but that’s the kind of stuff where they that’s where they see him being less successful than he can be, and they think it’s coachable rather than being just the thing that he won’t ever be able to do.

Jake Wood (07:28)
Obviously, you know, you touched on it there a little bit. The end-of-season press conference has yet to take place, but you know, I’d be curious to know just how Chaim Bloom intends to attack this offseason. Obviously, with the Cardinals being eliminated from postseason contention, a lot of our focus now shifts kind of to what the offseason is going to start looking like. You know, I’d be curious to know, and this’ll be more speculation on your part than anything, and I apologize for that, but you know, do you think he will try to jump the market and act quickly before an industry shutdown, or would he rather sit back and let whatever market kind of occurs develop and be patient and strike where they can extract maybe some unheralded value? You know, kinda how do you see potentially Heim Bloom attacking this off-season as it unfolds?

Jeff Jones (08:14)
So, I act- I mean it it probably is cheating to say both, but I do think the answer is both, right? And I you know, an example of this, the one that I’ve that I’ve been thinking about a lot lately, is the deal that the Cardinals signed Stephen Matz to ahead of the lockout, going from twenty-one into twenty-two, was really pretty reasonable. Like, you knew that there was gonna be some injury risk with Matz, but when he was healthy, he pitched well; you got a reasonable trade return for him. It was four and forty-four, four and forty-eight, something of that nature. Like nothing, nothing really crazy, you know, a below-qualifying offer amount. It’s four years, but a below-qualifying offer amount. And that was in large part because Matz wanted to know where he was going out of the stoppage. He wanted to have security. You know, obviously his injury history put him in a spot where he felt like a multi-year deal was something he wanted, all of that. But which was just to say that the Cardinals, in that case, leveraged that deadline as an ability to maybe drive the AAV down on a guy. Now, the flip side of that, and another one I’ve been thinking about in this context, is I think this probably affects the option decision on Ryan Stanek, right? Because if you assume it’s a $5 million call, it’s a $6 million option or a $1 million buyout. So you’re talking about a $5 million call here. Is it likely that coming out of a stoppage, there’s going to be a whole bunch of one-year relievers who, two weeks before camp starts, are going to be willing to take three and a half or four rather than five? And are those guys going to be 85, 90, 100% as good as Ryan Stanek was this year? I think you could make an argument for that. So I think it probably affects the way that they look at that option and the way that they would attack that market, you know, after a stoppage, because those are going to be the guys. And this is what we’ve talked about, you know, all the economics around this. Whatever happens, it’s gonna be a squeeze on that middle class of player, right? And that’s veteran relievers who sign one-year deals. and I would I would anticipate that that market is going to be a little more- panic is the wrong word, but that market is gonna be easier for a front office to pressure after a stoppage than before it.

Jake Wood (10:14)
Frenetic, maybe? As a word. I don’t-

Jeff Jones (10:17)
Yeah, no, I just, I like it’s not I don’t know, it’s not gonna be thirty guys who are gonna take one and a half to just get into camp anywhere, but it but there are definitely gonna be guys who are gonna be available because I would imagine teams throughout the league are gonna look at it in the same way. Hey, get on the other side of the stoppage. Number one, in that case, you know, you know what the economic system is, right? Because what is sort of the most fungible, replaceable thing on any roster? It’s like the three, four, five guys in the bullpen. You have some system guys you can make, or right, all that stuff.

So there’s really every incentive for that market I to for me at least, there’s every incentive for that market to hold until number one, there is certainty as to what the economic system looks like. And number two, it’s gonna be a shorter window. You know, the reason teams are talking about having a trade, you know, a transaction freeze window is that it pressures guys to take less money ’cause they wanna get a deal done. And that’s gonna be a version of that coming out of the stoppage.

Gabe (11:09)
So speaking of the one position that they don’t have figured out going into next year, third base, do you get an indication that they’re gonna go internal? Cause I don’t think Saggese and Blaze Jordan is that bad of a plan because they’re both unproven; both showed signs that they might do something. Not to mention Jesus Baez and, to some extent, Deniel Ortiz are possibly gonna be a factor in the second half. So do you get any indication if they’re gonna try to sign a free agent or maybe make a trade?

Or are they just gonna stick with their internal options?

Jeff Jones (11:39)
Yeah, so I mean a trade is a possibility, I suppose, if there is. I don’t really know what that piece I act, you know; there are a couple of guys occasionally, like I’ll sort of click around to think about. Like one that makes sense to me, weirdly enough, is Matt Shaw. I mean, that obviously is never gonna happen. There are guys like that right around that that make some sense. But no, I I I think that that is a spot where they would probably look to supplement a veteran free agent. Think of it as a lefty version of Urius, right? Or a combination of him and Gorman as a left-hander, you know, some of a more bench-oriented bit of a guy that you can play at third twice a week or whatever. I I think that I think that Blaze Jordan is probably gonna have every opportunity to win that job in spring. I think that they are gonna be open to seeing what the market looks like. You know, is that a spot where there’s a short-term free agent? Sure, possibly. I do get the sense that with at least Jesus Baez, they are probably going to want him to get some Triple-A time. That’s not going to say that he isn’t going to be in the big leagues at some point next year. You know, I’ve been joking all weekend that, like, I half expect him to lead Lidom in innings at third base. Yeah, I mean, like, he’s going to get a lot of reps at third base this winter for sure. But I, you know, I don’t think that he is probably, as of today, a really strong candidate for, like, the opening day roster in twenty-seven, right? but but yeah, for sure could be a part of that later in the year.

Jake Wood (13:01)
You

know, kind of touching on that topic, what are areas of the big league roster that you think still kind of remain big question marks heading into this? You know, for me, third base was one I think that a number one starter is probably somewhere the Cardinals might would would maybe want to look to add. You know, you look at they have a lot of depth in the rotation, a lot of guys who fill out a rotation, but maybe not somebody who fronts that and then maybe another high leverage reliever to kind of pair with Riley O’Brien to help kind of alleviate some of the tall asks that he’s had of him this season.

I think that what we’re seeing a lot of I know Oli will probably never admit to it- but I think a lot of what we’re seeing with Riley O’Brien, at least down the stretch, is a lot of burnout, ’cause he has been utilized a lot this season and a lot of tight, close games with very thin margins. And so, you know, are those probably the three main areas you think that are still kind of in flux for this team going into the next season?

Jeff Jones (13:58)
Yeah, what I would say is it’s sort of in reverse order. I don’t think that they would probably look to add outside for leverage, like for a true, like closer-esque level leverage reliever, right? I think that you would see a Stanek type, if not Stanek himself into that Yeah, into that, you know.

Jake Wood (14:12)
That’s kind of where I was, yeah, somebody who can help alleviate some of the need on Riley, say if he’s gone three days in a row, somebody you feel comfortable throwing in, something like that, yes.

Jeff Jones (14:20)
Kittridge, Maton, Stanek, that guy. Yeah, that’s always that guy, right? I do think that they view internally if if Riley were to start badly, be hurt, whatever, next year, I think that they are intrigued definitely by what Gastelum would do in that spot. And I think that the success that Graceffo has had with kind of reshaping the breaking ball the second half of the season has their attention. I I I do not think they’re at all interested in putting Graceffo back into a starting spot. Like, I don’t expect to hear that he’s gonna stretch out this winter. I think that they are really happy with the development that he’s done and that he has right now. And I think that they view him more as this is maybe, the guy if O’Brien gets swapped out next year rather than, hey, is this Kyle Leahy? I I I think I think it’s I think it’s more that bullpen orientation.

You know, in terms of the other spots in the roster, yeah, there there will definitely be a need for some version of, you know, some some some version of innings really from the bullpen. Now that is gonna get you to an interesting question about Matthew Libertore that I don’t know the answer to yet, and that I’m not entirely sure that they 100% know the answer to yet. There certainly are people who think What else can they need to see? I I I hear the argument. I don’t know that they are necessarily there yet in determining that with Libertore, but I do think if you start counting up starting spots for next season, you would definitely say, you know, McGreevy, Leahy, Mathews- that’s for sure three. Now you’re talking about if Pallante is on their roster next year, he’s for sure four. I can see an argument, can see a s a situation where maybe Pallante becomes popular on the trade market this winter. But I also thought that the deadline, and it didn’t really happen. So I, you know, I could be misreading that situation. But if Pallante is around, that’s definitely four. And that is before you add anyone from outside.

That is before you say Richard Fitts, that is before you say Cooper Hjerpe, that is before you say, you know, Mason Molina in the second part of this. There’s a lot of guys who can fill up some of those internal spots before you even need to talk about Matthew Libertore. And so I do wonder if, if nothing else, the combination of, you know, places he’s had success versus places he’s not, and what the structure of their roster looks like. I think I wonder if those two things together can inform some of that choice. And then the next, and then the next to me decision becomes is the value they think they can get from him as a reliever greater than what the trade value is? Because if there are say three, four, five other teams who still think they can make the starter thing happen, then he probably has more value in trade than he does even as a really good reliever. I don’t know if they would come to that same conclusion, but that is the way I have sort of thought about it.

Gabe (17:03)
So it seems clear, and you might not know more information than we do, but it seems clear Bernal is the plan at starting catcher next year. What do they do with the rest of the starting catchers? trades move to positions, like like what what do you what do you see the future is for Herrera, who I kind of feel like is done a catcher, but maybe I’m wrong. Crooks, Pages, and then obviously Rodriguez is at least a year later than all these guys.

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Unedited Beyond this point (I ran out of time I apologize)

Jeff Jones (17:31)
So there are definitely there there are a lot of things there to sort through. I will note, interestingly, that unprompted Rodriguez’s name came out of the manager’s mouth this afternoon as we were kind talking about this spot, right? Like no one said, Hey, is Raniel in this picture? None that came up, but he’s as he’s listening through the guys that the name came out of his mouth, which I thought I thought was worth noting, right, as we’re having this conversation. I I think that they’re gonna go into next year, essentially look at the way

Look at look at Bernal the way that you would have looked at Pahas to start this season. He is the default catcher. He is gonna be the load catcher, and he is gonna be the guy who is gonna get those opportunities most of the time. I think they are by and large happy with the way the Herrera thing went this season. What I what I would say is I know that they are eager to tell us they are happy with the way that the Herrera thing went this season.

Right. There are two ways to read that. Either they are, which I I do think it I think it’s seventy thirty, they are actually happy with the way it went. The throwing, whatever, they they long ago made a decision that whatever they’re losing from the stolen bases, they’re gaining from the bat when it’s in the lineup and they’re just gonna eat it. That that’s I mean it’s it’s as long as we spent talking about can the throwing get better, their decision was we don’t care. The run production is good enough even when the throwing is bad. Right. So

I I think that it went well and he would basically slot into more or less the same role next year. I think that they would be comfortable with that. You know, he is closing in on being the first cardinal with seven hundred plate appearances and twenty homers since like Albert Poohs, who did it maybe once, and then you’re going back to Joe Torrey. Like it’s a weird list of guys who who have that many plate appearances who are that durable at at the plate in over the stretch of a long season. He he did it while catching twenty percent of the time, right? Like that you know, that was

I I think that that worked out pretty well. Now, what that means for Pajas and Crooks, I am less confident about. one thing to keep in mind with Pajes is that he is ARB one this winter. I don’t think that they would prefer to get to a point where that is a place where they just non-tender a guy. I don’t think it’s necessarily totally off the table. My my suspicion is I know that there were teams throughout the season, Pittsburgh was one of them, who called on Pajes when Crooks came up and just wanted to know.

Hey, what’s going on here? Like what like what’s the plan with this guy? What does the situation look like? So it it would not totally shock me if they made some of those calls kind of right after the end of the World Series as they came up on the tender deadline, yada yada, yada. That you’re getting into the question of are are teams gonna do trades if they think you’re gonna non-tender guy. You know, there there’s always stuff

Gabe (20:03)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (20:04)
that happens in that spot, right? as for crooks, you know, I think that probably at this point, the way he holds the most value for them.

Is this the starter at Memphis next year? And if he pops, if you really need him, if he if he earns it in spring, you know, if you if you get to spring or or whatever, you get to May and Bernal turned into crooks this year, and crooks is having another triple A year, you look, right? There, you know, there’s no harm in that. So I do I do think you can pretty well fit essentially everyone into this picture. Other I I I think there’s a lot of conflict with Pahes and Bernal, and they have chosen Bernal. And that is sort of where it’s gonna work out.

Gabe (20:43)
So you said seventy thirty, seventy them being happy with their se season. Is the thirty that they are doing a public facing we’re happy with it and we want to trade them?

Jeff Jones (20:51)
Yes.

Jake Wood (20:51)
They’re selling. Yeah.

Jeff Jones (20:53)
Correct. That that to me that’s the third. Yeah. The thirty is let’s make sure that other teams know how happy we are with how he caught this year because if another team is trading for him, the su the surplus value is in the catching. Right. The reason to keep him catching is because he is such a better hitter than an average catcher and not that much a better adv hitter than an average DH for spaceman, whatever.

Gabe (21:12)
Yeah.

Makes sense.

Jake Wood (21:14)
So,

you know, you sat down with Mason Wynn just a bit ago and you kind of discussed the future with him and you know, from recent winter warm-ups, every time we asked him about his desire to stay long term, you know, he only had glowing things to say about the organization and w wanting to be in St. Louis long term. Is that still kind of his prevailing sentiment, or have things kind of changed? You know, he obviously

is a a superior defender, but the bat has yet to kind of manifest itself in an impactful, sustainable fashion, and fans seem split on whether they’d be on board with a long-term commitment. You know, is the glove itself worthy of look locking him in long term, or are you of the opinion that the bat needs to show more before the organization would, you know, consider long-term conversations with Mason Wynn?

Jeff Jones (22:02)
You know, th the way that I’ve kind of thought about this all summer is because I’ve had folks ask me, like, hey, do you think it’s a problem for when that Weatherholt got the deal first? Do you th you know, do you think that that is is an issue? And I I’ve always honestly sort of looked at it the opposite way, in that I I don’t think I don’t think under the current situation, Mason wants to be doing an extension because of the way his season has transpired. I think if you’re Mason win

You’d really don’t want to be going into negotiating an extension season off of an ADO PS plus platform season, right? Like that’s not that’s not a spot you want to be in because the Cardinals are going to be able to point to that. They’re going to point to your first year, they’re going to point to your most recent year, and they’re going to say you’ve never been a league average hitter. And you’re not, you know, you you have not or maybe the one, you maybe the twenty-four you was, but it but you know, have not consistently been even a league average hitter. The Gold Glove defense is great, but

right next door we have a guy locked up for the next eight years who has some experience in that position and you know, G dot dot dot. Right. So I just I think that Wynne is not in a good negotiating spot at the moment. and so I can’t really fault him or ca I can’t fault anyone for not being able to get that business done. Because, you know, if you’re the Cardinals, it I don’t think it’s unreasonable for them to say that they are gonna want to see at least over the course of a season or half a season even, right? Like and I, you know, I I I I don’t

I

don’t think it’s I don’t think it’s a good time for either side to get that deal done just because of the way his season went at the plate this year.

Gabe (23:28)
Speaking of extensions actually, when I think Bill DeWitt mentioned the when we signed Weatherhole to his extension, he said something like the first of hopefully a few or something like that.

Jeff Jones (23:38)
Yeah.

Gabe (23:38)
Phrasing.

Jake Wood (23:38)
More to come, yeah.

Gabe (23:40)
yeah, more to come. do you have any intel, I guess, into who they might be working on an extension with at the moment or or soon enough?

Jeff Jones (23:51)
I I don’t. I would be more or less guessing to do that. I I I could take an educated guess, but I think it would be the same thing as everybody else’s educated guess, so I don’t know that it would necessarily, you know, be all that productive. Like of of the guy of the guys you would have the conversation about, to me Burleson is the simplest one. That is the easiest that is the easiest deal to get done. Whether or not that happens, I truly don’t know whether or not it’s been discussed. I I can’t honestly say that I really know one way or another.

That to me is the one that it makes the most sense and that is the easiest to do and that would be a path to bridge that.

Jake Wood (24:26)
Obviously, you know, talking about Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker had a very twenty twenty-four Alec Burleson type season, you know, awesome in the first half, kinda fell off in the second half. You know, what of his long term viability as the Cardinals appear to be flush with, you know, some ascending outfield talent, you know, what could his future look like in St. Louis beyond just this minimum investment as he enters arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason as well?

Jeff Jones (24:52)
You know, I’ll say this about Jordan Walker. My my very strong suspicion is that we’re gonna get to the end of the season press conference and we’re gonna hear a lot about how much Jordan was playing through and kind of how his body was feeling on the second half of the season, right? We’ve already heard a little bit of it’s not going right it’s not going well for him right now. He’s fighting through it, we need to feel him fight through it, he’s frustrated. You know, it’s all the all the stuff you hear about like feel and comfort and such. I if when we get to the end of the season and we hear, hey, Jordan had X, Y, and Z kind of banged up in in in the lower body.

not gonna be shocked, right? The other night where he had that awkward step on first base, rolled the ankle, left a little early, that was the explanation, and okay. I I’m not in a position to doubt their explanations, but I watched him run down the line of that double play and he like he he wasn’t running well before he got to the bag, right? And and that’s look, it’s it’s game one fifty. Guys are gonna be dinged up. He’s he’s playing more baseball this year at a higher level than he’s played ever in his life, had a ton of success. It it’s been a strange year for him. So like

You know, ideally would you like him to finish as strong as he started this season? Yeah, probably. But I gotta say, I don’t really take the last month as an indication that the first four months were fake. I take the last month as an indication that the first four months were real, and that that the cumulative effect of that has has kind of gotten to him a little bit here down the stretch.

Gabe (26:06)
I don’t know if you can remember this out of hand, but do you know which relievers that are in the bullpen right now do you expect the Cardinals to say cyanor cyanara to like

Jeff Jones (26:19)
so let me I mean I we ’cause I was just the other day was sort of running down the rule five stuff and kind of what the forty man looks like and and the and the space that they have. It’s it’s really not that tight this winter. To me, I think there are only three, maybe four guys you would say are like one hundred percent slam dunk put on the forty guys. they they will probably add seven, eight, nine because there are guys you could definitely make the argument for, and they will probably have the space. You know, just when you think about the guys in the bullpen, like the one that I that that I’m not really sure about.

is WinQuest. I would be interested to see if we see him in some scripted higher leverage stuff maybe here over the last week to see if they can, you know, maybe they can try to get a little better of of an eye on kind of what that looks like. I had heard that they had a desire to get Rincone back to the big leagues before the season is over.

he would be eligible to do that the first game in Pittsburgh. So I will see if that happens. I don’t I don’t know that that is happening. I haven’t been told that that is happening, but I know that there was at least some desire to get him back for the end of the season. And so I wonder about that. Right? And and to stay in the organization. I you I I think folks don’t often remember that the Cardinals outrighted Kyle Leahy.

Gabe (27:34)
Mm-hmm.

Jeff Jones (27:34)
four years

ago and he just slipped and then they kept him and you know all this has happened since, right? So wouldn’t totally shock me if guys like that, the guys that we have seen make debuts, pitch a little, not a lot, and and not get a ton of exposure to leverage spots, those are the kind of guys who maybe you would see sort of slip back if they wanted to thin the forty out at the end of the season.

Jake Wood (27:53)
I I’m kinda curious of your perspective with like a George Soriano. So like we’re on the topic of the bullpen. You know, obviously he was he was really, really good through the first four ish months of the season.

got started to get into August, it started to to taper away a little bit, and as we’ve gotten into September, it’s really started to to seem to struggle for him. Again, it’s a guy who’s really overloaded on terms of in terms of innings that he’s, you know, been asked to perform in and appearances for his career. Do you think that there is any type of hesitation

from the Cardinals perspective about carrying him into next season because it appears there’s a lot of fan sentiment at least who have maybe it’s out of frustration, but have made up their mind that George Soriano is not a piece to move forward with, into into future seasons.

Jeff Jones (28:41)
Yeah, I mean I don’t think that they’re married to him, right? Like I don’t think that they necessarily think he’s you know, has a future as like a really important piece of their high leverage. Again, he, you know, wasn’t one of the guys I would think about in terms of internal options to to to replace O’Brien if that became necessary. The thing I’ll say about Soriano and and the way that I’ve kind of come to think about his season, and it’s not it’s not totally fair because he had reasonably significant day league experience before this year, so it’s not a one-to-one comparison. But if you think of like him and Pichard combined as the rule five spot.

Right. Bashard didn’t work out. They let it go, send him back to Miami, Godspeed. Maybe he gets back to the big leagues. They really kind of just treated Soriano like a rule five guy in that same way where they couldn’t move him, they couldn’t do anything with him. So he’s going to pitch through it. He’s going to get some opportunities. And he pitched well into some of them and then pitched out of it. So, you know, if if he’s if he’s the the the seventh or eighth guy in your bullpen, your third or fourth highest leverage righty reliever, I think you can live with that.

and I think for the cost they would be more than happy to have that, especially because they liked enough of what they saw of of of the repertoire, you know, last winter. They claimed him on waivers multiple times and were not the preceding claims, so they didn’t get him and finally just traded for him to to shortcut the waiver line. That that was how much they liked him last winter. I don’t know that they necessarily gave him anything throughout the season to like him a whole lot less than that. so I I do think he factors in for them, but I don’t necessarily think he’s like a building block or anything.

Gabe (30:05)
Sort of a very random player to ask about, but d how do you think the Cardinals view Chase Davis? Do you think they view him as somebody that will eventually figure it out or is he kind of just like, we’re gonna keep him in triple A? Hopefully figures it out. We’ve already kinda he’s not part of our plans, hopefully he forces his way back into our plans. How do you think they view Chase Davis?

Jeff Jones (30:27)
Yeah,

I I you know, he’s obviously relevant to this rule five conversation and this forty man conversation, right? I think the realistic answer is he was a first round pick and so they’re gonna protect him and they’re gonna see if it unlocks. I I think is is probably the honest way that that it that it’s gonna shake out. I don’t think he necessarily like squeezes anybody that they are all that concerned about, right? Again, talking about the shape of the forty man, like Emerson Pereira’s on the forty man, they don’t seem especially interested in what he has to offer necessarily, so

If that is the case, Davis probably is just as useful in that 40 minute spot as Pereira would be, right? Like that, you that that that’s that that to me is a spot they can afford to use and see where it goes from there. You know, like we were talking about with Church, right? Like I don’t think they’re a hundred percent convinced that on their next playoff team, Nathan Church is their starting center fielder. And so if it breaks for Davis, great. And and maybe, you know, maybe he becomes that guy. And if he doesn’t, well, okay. And he’s gonna be a guy who maybe can become Nathan Church as Nathan Church is hitting arbitration.

And if that’s how that works out, that’s probably a useful enough use of that roster spot.

Gabe (31:30)
Is Vic is Victor Scat gone?

Jeff Jones (31:34)
I’m not gonna say gone. I think that

I it it’s really hard for me to see what the path looks like, right? I I just think the way that it is sort of broken out this season. I think the way that the offense wasn’t there. and I think frankly, from the way you’re seeing him used over this last month, right? Like there is there is not a premium place on getting him opportunity right now. He’s on the roster, but he’s I mean, like he he he might not get a start the rest of the way. I we were a little surprised that there were a couple of starts for him this weekend and and some of that was just, you know.

It’s hot, stay after night, all that stuff. So I I think, you know, it’s hard because there are definitely guys who in the in what now maybe you would say is the best peak league version of Victor Scott had really good careers, right? Like the obvious ones are out in Gerard Dyson, guys like that, right? Who who were, you know, eighty percent gloves, center fielders, super fast, hit ninth, played elite defense. You can get away with it if you have other stuff going on in that team. But even those guys, like

Gerard Dyson’s average years were like 80 OPS plus, and Victor’s in that 55 to 60 range, right? And that’s just that’s tough. It’s really hard to be on a roster and hit that little. Like, you know, you like the Ur version of this guy is, I don’t know, Billy Hamilton. And when Billy Hamilton was breaking the 70 floor, he was not in the big leagues anymore. And that was that that that I’m not saying that Victor can’t figure it out or that he is not going to get himself back to a spot where he can find that kind of contact profile.

But he doesn’t have it right now and I don’t know that they have a whole lot of time to let him find it.

Gabe (33:10)
Yeah, I think it’s telling that he’s playing left field when he’s a defensive replacement and not center field, ’cause I think he’s probably a better defender than church.

Jake Wood (33:15)
Centerfield. That was that was a big surprise to me. Yeah.

Jeff Jones (33:18)
Because because the because the reps for church are more valuable for them.

Jake Wood (33:23)
Makes total sense. You know

The one name we haven’t talked about, but I feel like is he’s very polarizing, a very Pandora’s box for fans, it’s Nolan Gorman, right? When we talk about third base being an open place for for competition going into next season, obviously like you alluded to in the in the very beginning, you know, the Cardinals got answers, but sometimes it’s on players and not in a positive way. Do you think that the Cardinals have enough now after, I don’t know, eighteen hundred played appearances, I think, is right around where he’s at, to f to to have some final

Yeah.

Jeff Jones (33:59)
Yeah, I I think when when Marmole talks about we got answers to a lot of questions, they weren’t all good answers, I think he’s talking about Dylan Gorman. I I think that is sort of the way that that’s gonna work out here. And, you know, again, if if the strikeout rate gets down to something reasonable, you know, and and reasonable in this case being thirty one thirty two and not thirty six thirty seven, then maybe you’re having a different conversation. but it just it just hasn’t gotten there. And again, that’s a guy who they are clearly not making time

to get opportunity sport, right? Like for me is playing third base, Torres is getting extra days in left field, and Nolan Gorman is not pitching. So, you know, I I think it’s it’s sort of clear the way that they’re pointed on that one. And again, he’s gonna be going into ARB this winter with enough career homers that the ARB number it might just be at a spot where it doesn’t really work for the Cardinals.

Jake Wood (34:47)
Do you think that’s likely a non tender situation, or do you think that there is any type of marketability in him where they could get a fringe forty man reliever type, just get something in return for him? F

Jeff Jones (34:58)
I think if there was

a lot of trademark, it probably would’ve happened at the deadline. and I think the fact that it didn’t probably says that it that’s hard. That they’re that that whether it’s a value mismatch or whatever, I just don’t know. I don’t know that that matches there. Especially again, like we talked about earlier, if you’re in a spot where if other teams think you’re gonna non tender the guy, they’re not gonna make the deal. They’ll roll the dice

Jake Wood (35:20)
Sure.

Jeff Jones (35:21)
and and and and hope that he’s on the free agent market because for them the value is gonna be marginal.

Gabe (35:27)
So here’s a news related question, recent thing I saw. what surgery did Tink Hens have and how long is he expected to be

Jake Wood (35:35)
Good question.

Gabe (35:36)
out for? Or how long I

Jeff Jones (35:38)
I have no idea.

Gabe (35:38)
should say ’cause it’s obviously we have a whole off season. What’s the timeline on the recovery from the injury?

Jeff Jones (35:44)
I I I have I have absolutely no idea. I don’t know if it’s the shoulder, I don’t know if it’s the elbow. That he’s been off the forty and then he’s been at the complex and then he disappeared for a while and then he was in LA clear like and this is all stuff that that we have like gathered through Instagram. Like this is not like the Cardinals giving us up on this. It’s like okay, Tink’s in Miami today, okay, Tink’s in LA today, his brother lives in LA. and then Kink is walking out of a doctor’s office in Los Angeles with his arm in his leg. Now he’s in LA, so I would guess it was Eltrash, but I I I would be guessing.

that it was L you know. And if it was El Trash, it could have it could be anywhere from the finger all the way to the joint of the shoulder. So I don’t know and it hasn’t really it hasn’t come up. I’m sure it will be asked at the end of season pressure with Haim, you know, here in a in a week or so, but it I I do not know more than Instagram knows.

Jake Wood (36:32)
Jeff, I I I asked our guest last week and I wanted to ask you er was it last week, it was two weeks ago, whenever we had Matt Polly on w when you think back on twenty twenty six, what will be the one moment that stands out y to you the most of everything that has kind of taken place or occurred this season? That you’ll look back five years from now and kind of remember, you know, that that moment happened.

Jeff Jones (36:56)
Joshua

Bias at Wrigley Field. It’s a thousand percent the Joshua Bias game at Wrigley Field. That was that that that I don’t know that I will see anything that cool in in a career covering baseball, right? Like that was just you know, the first the first one it happened and you go, and then you look and it’s like, I didn’t even you know, I didn’t know that Matthew Boyd was related to Joshua Bias. Okay, we learned he could hit a ninety-four mile an hour fastball belled high over the outer half. I bet he can. you know, but then the second one happens and you’re like, you know, and then you know, you’re looking up

When did this last happen? Who’s done it in their first two? It bay, you you’re making the list, you’re doing all that stuff. You’re talking about Keith McDonald, who I I met, by the way, like ten days ago happened to be at Bush Stadium. He’d already he had a pre-existing trip plan. So the cardinals like had him come meet Joshua Baez and take photos and do all this stuff. so you know, the second one happens and you’re doing all that work. And then the third one happens, and I I’ve told this story a couple of times, but like you know, you travel around, you go to press boxes and stuff, and there are people who work in all these places where like

I I know a face, I don’t know what anybody’s name, but like the the the guy who who takes the media meal in Milwaukee, I could draw you a portrait of him. I have no idea what the man’s name is, very nice man, but I could I g I could sketch out what the guy looks like, right? So there are people like this just all over the place in press boxers, and there is a woman who works in the press box at Wrigley who has worked there for as long as I have been going to Wrigley Field, and I’m like I’m literally like standing up just like looking around at the things that are happening.

And I look back and I make eye contact this woman and and and she just go she goes, holy shit. And that like right

and that like that is the moment. That is the memory from that moment that I will take away from that is this woman. I couldn’t tell you her name, but I’ve seen her at Wrigley fifty times and and we we had eye contact and that was and that that is the that is like the stick-out memory of that.

Gabe (38:43)
On a much sillier note, I saw you respond to Justin Turner, who for some reason decided to use chat GPT about Mason Wynn being able to throw it slower on that one play. wha what happened to his brain? I don’t understand why he cares about this.

Jeff Jones (38:58)
And so I So here

is the most important thing I can say about this. Every single time I have ever heard Mason Wynne talk about this, he has been magnanimous and kind. And it says, no, no, they actually he made a good point and people shouldn’t get on it. Like Mason is very particular to be very clear that he does not have a Justin Turner problem, right? Like he is really committed to making sure people know that.

All that being said, like, and I I was joking with him about this today. In fact, and what I told Nathan was, I don’t know how much money I would have to have made in my career to never look at Twitter ever again. But it’s a hell of a lot less than Justin Turner made playing baseball. Like

Gabe (39:41)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (39:42)
just just don’t. What are you doing? What like people love you. You’re a Dodger you were a Los Angeles Dodgers legend forever. You made a hundred and forty million dollars and you won a World Series and you get to go

guest bartend at Dodger Stadium and get a standing ovation once a week for the rest of your life. Stop tweeting. Don’t go to ChatGPT. There’s no reason that Justin Turner needs to know how to do that. Not important. You know who I guarantee you doesn’t know how to use ChatGPT? Jason Isringhausen. Doesn’t care. Not a part of his life. Like it’s just then doesn’t care. It just Yeah. Right. Can goes to Fastaddies, goes to Jupiter

Jake Wood (40:18)
Knows how to drink a nice cold beer at Fast Eddies, I’ll tell you that.

Jeff Jones (40:25)
Hunt stuff like and I don’t think he made as much money as Justin Turner. Like you know, just don’t do it. Just have a better life.

Jake Wood (40:33)
Absolutely. You know, speaking of the wonderful Twitter machine and all of social media, Jeff, can you please take a brief moment to kinda plug your written work and where fans can go to find all of your great stuff.

Jeff Jones (40:45)
Yeah,

there are stuff still happening in the Belleville News Democrat for now, as far as I’m aware. throughout the winter, what I would say is that you should be checking out Words About Birds, WordsaboutBirds dot com. that is up right now. Monthly subscriptions are live. I also turned on an off season subscription and then realized literally today that the math I had done makes it like you get less for buying the off season subscription the way I have a structure right now. So I’m gonna fix that. we’re gonna get that fixed, and so all of a sudden you’re not paying more than the monthly subscriber. I don’t that that’s not how that’s supposed to work. Look.

The whole point here is that I get to write stuff and don’t have to like do anything else and apparently that includes math. so we’re you know my the business part of it I I’m just trying to write. Right. So we’re just that’s what you know. So that’s there for now. Please check that out. there will be lots of stuff from Milwaukee, from Heim Bloom’s in a season press conference, from whatever happens this winter until things stop happening this winter.

Jake Wood (41:39)
Jeff, you know, we appreciate your time and insight as always. We’ll be looking forward to your coverage all off season long, like you alluded to, and hopefully, you know, you can squeeze us in whenever CBA stuff starts happening. And so someone who is more affluent in baseball economics can layman’s terms a lot of what’s changing for us. We would really appreciate.

Jeff Jones (41:57)
Yeah, you know, I have a strong suspicion then come that come like February, March, April, my only competition for time is gonna be like the Royal Caribbean Casino Loyalty Program. So as long as they don’t have me out in the middle of the the ocean too often, I’ll have a lot of free time probably.

Jake Wood (42:12)
Terrific. Thank you so much for joining us for this episode of the Viva Albertos podcast. Don’t forget to rate, review, and hit that subscribe button so you’re notified every Monday morning. For Gabe Simons and Jeff Jones, my name is Jake Wood, and we’ll talk to you all next week and bring you more great Cardinals content. Have a great day, St. Louis, and let’s go cards!

So it all comes down to this? After the Yankees dropped the last two games of their series against the Diamondbacks in the desert, the math is at least simple for the Yankees in their last-ditch Hail Mary: win all four games to flip the season series with the Rays to 7–6 in their favor, shrinking the division deficit to two games and securing the tiebreaker. Should such a miracle occur, then each team’s final series of the regular season comes into play (Phillies for the Rays, Orioles for the Yanks). Anything less than a sweep, and the Rays will celebrate clinching the AL East on the Yankee Stadium infield.

Both offenses come in having played pretty well over their last 10 games. Even with Aaron Judge not doing much and then returning to the IL, the Yankees have averaged 5.4 runs per game, while the Rays have averaged 5.7 over that span. This series, much like the whole year, will of course not feature the Yankees’ captain. With postseason baseball right around the corner, there are no longer places to hide or excuses to be made.

After the offday for both clubs today, the bullpens will come in ready to handle the doubleheader on Tuesday and the following two games. The Rays have three standouts ready to roll in Bryan Baker, who has a major-league-leading 40 saves while posting a 1.49 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Right behind him, Kevin Kelly has made 68 appearances, tossing 72.0 innings while maintaining a 0.90 WHIP and a solid 2.49 ERA. Meanwhile, left-hander Cam Booser has provided 38.1 innings with an outstanding 42:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.78 WHIP on the year. Now let’s dive into the starting pitching matchups.

Tuesday, Game 1: Carlos Rodón vs. Nick Martinez (1:05 p.m. ET)

The Yankees will send Rodón out for game one of the doubleheader. Rodón has fully settled into his normal rhythm of ugly, but quality starts. He actually hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start all year long, though elbow inflammation cost him about seven weeks. Across 15 starts, he has delivered a sharp 2.95 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 76.1 innings, limiting opponents to a .178 batting average. Over his last three outings, Rodón has showcased his usual grind, allowing a total of just four earned runs over 17.1 innings while racking up 20 strikeouts.

Martinez takes the hill for the Rays to counter Rodón. The righty has quietly had a phenomenal campaign for Tampa Bay. Spanning 29 starts, he has an impressive 15-4 record with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 171.1 innings of work, all while walking only 24 batters all season. The journeyman was an All-Star for the first time in 2026 and won his most recent start on September 16th, throwing an efficient 72 pitches over five innings against the A’s. Martinez has given up five earned runs over his last three turns through the rotation and has been pulled with varying lower-pitch counts each time. Martinez’s primary weapon is a high-spin changeup that completely neutralizes left-handed bats.

Tuesday, Game 2: Max Fried vs. Drew Rasmussen (7:05 p.m. ET)

The Yankees hand the ball to another veteran lefty in Fried for the nightcap of the twin bill. Despite managing his workload (and bone bruise) carefully down the stretch to stay completely fresh for October, Fried’s “full”-season body of work has been spectacular. In 19 starts this season, he has pitched to a 2.63 ERA and a 0.981 WHIP, racking up 100 strikeouts over 106 frames while holding opponents to a meager .198 average. In his last two starts, Fried struggled against the Rockies (only allowing a run on one hit but needing 80 pitches to record 10 outs) before rebounding in Minnesota, going seven strong innings of one-run ball on September 15th.

Tampa Bay counters with their top guy in the right-handed Rasmussen to finish out the doubleheader. The 31-year-old has put together a great season for the Rays and is the most likely candidate to start Game 1 of a playoff series for them, logging a 15-5 record over 29 starts and a 2.72 ERA, a 0.925 WHIP, and 163 strikeouts in 165.1 innings. Rasmussen is coming off a good performance against the A’s, firing five scoreless innings before being lifted with a comfortable 6-0 lead. Over his last three starts, he has surrendered just two earned runs in 19.0 innings. Rasmussen attacks hitters with a dose of high-velocity cutters and hard-sweeping sliders.

Wednesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Ian Seymour* (7:05 p.m. ET)

The mid-week spotlight features the Cole train hoping to find the rails he and Scranton have both abandoned of late. On the year, Cole has a 9-9 record with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts across 121.1 innings. Cole has been a bit volatile in his last three outings. He was tagged for five runs by the Mets on September 12th and four runs by the Padres on September 6th, but bounced back in his most recent start on September 18th in Arizona, firing six innings of four-hit, two-run ball with six strikeouts. Although Cole coughed up a combined seven long balls to the Mets and Padres, he at least kept the D-backs to one shot by Corbin Carroll. Aaron Boone has said that the old ace will get a playoff start, so it’s vital that he keeps the homers in check in his regular-season finale.

The Rays haven’t officially announced their Wednesday starter yet, but the next man in the rotation after Rasmussen is Seymour, and he would be on normal rest. The lefty from Madison, Connecticut has compiled a 9-7 record with a 4.38 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts in 127.1 innings. Over his last three starts, he struck out 10 in a six-inning performance against Houston on September 12th, but was touched up for four runs by Boston on September 18th and three runs by Texas on September 6th. Seymour leads with a low-90s four-seam fastball that plays up due to a unique extension and arm slot, paired with a good changeup and a sweeping slider.

Thursday: Cam Schlittler vs. Freddy Peralta* (7:05 p.m. ET)

Schlittler has gone from a rising young fan favorite to the runaway favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Over a sample size of 32 starts, Schlittler has thrown 190.2 innings and posted a stellar 1.94 ERA (ranking second in MLB) alongside a 0.91 WHIP (third in MLB) and 234 strikeouts against an unfair .184 opponent batting average. Schlittler has not given up more than a single earned run in a start since August 3rd. Here is to hoping Schlittler has another few amazing starts left in store for us in 2026. What a season! This will be his final tune-up before the playoffs.

The Rays are on track to wrap up the series by sending the veteran right-hander Peralta to the hill to counter Schlittler. Since coming over to the Rays at the 2026 Trade Deadline following a regrettable short stint with the Mets, he is throwing his changeup more and is showing a change in arm angle. On the year, he has a 9-11 record, a 4.56 ERA, a 1.335 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts over 158 innings. In his last three outings, he allowed one run over 5.2 innings against Boston on September 19th, spun five scoreless against Houston on September 13th, and gave up just four hits and a run over six innings in Atlanta on September 8th. That computes for a superb 1.08 ERA over his last 16.2 innings. Nicknamed “Fastball Freddy,” Peralta features a delivery that makes his mid-90s four-seam fastball almost pop into view for hitters. He relies heavily on that fastball, pairing it with a sweeping slider and that aforementioned fading changeup.

*Starter not yet finalized

Today Minor League Baseball has announced their post-season Double-A All Stars for each league, and one Atlanta Braves prospect was named to the team for the Southern League. That would be Brett Sears, who took one of the four starting pitcher spots, to be named just the second Clingstones player in history to be named to the team – as the team only started play for the 2025 season.

Sears made 17 appearances, including 15 starts, for Columbus totaling 94.2 innings. He pitched to a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 113 strikeouts and 22 walks. Sears allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings with the Clingstones, holding batters to a .228 average with a .282 OBP and .373 slugging percentage – a .655 OPS against him on the year. He also made five good starts to date with Gwinnett and one rehab start in the FCL after missing about a month of action in May.

Sears was a seventh round pick out of the University of Nebraska back in 2024 and this strong season was the follow up to his 2025 that saw him debut in Low-A and rocket up the system to reach Triple-A in his first professional season.

Three other Braves prospects had a case for the team, but fell short due to either competition for the spots or not enough playing time in Columbus. The biggest snub would be third baseman Jordan Groshans and his .932 OPS, who was left off the team because of the presence of Andrew Fischer (1.026 OPS). Catcher Adam Zebrowski (.932 OPS) and first baseman/DH David McCabe (.962 OPS) had a case as well, but both were under 240 plate appearances in Double-A this year.

We come to the last week of the season, and the Twins have officially been eliminated from playoff contention and will not be able to finish the season with a winning record. On the bright side, Walker Jenkins figured out major league pitching! The Twins wrap up the season with a series in San Francisco and finish at home against the Rangers. If you want something to root for, the Twins are tied for third with the Tigers, so maybe we can root for being right in the middle of the division.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• While this season has (maybe) not gone as expected, at least we’re not the 2016 team, as Zach Koenig reminds us.
• We’ve seen one week of Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Aidan O’Brien writes about why he has the makings of a star.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• It’s been an up-and-down year for Bailey Ober, but Bobby Nightengale at the Star Tribune looks at whether there’s still a place for a sub-90 pitcher in today’s MLB.
• Aaron Gleeman analyzes five breakout prospects from the 2026 season.
• Matthew Taylor at Twins Daily dives into two bullpen arms, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk, and their prospects for 2027.
• Aaron Sabato will finally have an opportunity to play in the majors after getting promoted for the final week of the season.

In the World of Baseball:

• The Yankees and the Red Sox joined the Rays as teams to clinch their spot in the playoffs. Due to a quirk in MLB playoff format, only one of these teams is going to make it to the ALCS. The Rays have not exactly clinched the #1 spot in the AL, but with seven games left in the season, they only need to win two of those games to finish in the top spot. The Guardians and White Sox are battling it out for the AL Central lead, after another classic September charge from the Guardians to go from a distant second in the division to now having the lead. However, neither team has clinched a playoff spot, as the Blue Jays, Astros, and Orioles still have an outside chance for the final wild-card spot. In the AL West, the Rangers hold a slim 1.0-game lead over the Astros, so it’s still anyone’s game there.
• In the NL, the Dodgers and Braves have joined the Brewers as division champs, while the Cubs, Padres, and Phillies are all virtual locks to make it to the wild card round. Only the Diamondbacks can take a spot, but it’s going to be tough, as they are four games behind the Phillies for the last spot.
• Boston started out the season 10-17, with the playoffs a distant hope. Tim Keown at ESPN looks at how the team pulled itself together and could potentially finish with the third-best record in the American League.
• While it might seem that the season is all but over, Brent Maguire at MLB.com looks at the top nine things at stake in the final week.