Category: Baseball

The Yankees got their Captain back on Tuesday, and while Aaron Judge didn’t collect a hit in the contest the good mood around the team was surely felt. Cam Schlittler stepped up and continued adding to his Cy Young case by tossing seven innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts, and even though Tim Hill had some misadventures in the ninth they weren’t enough to override the baffling defensive play of the Rockies that gifted the Yankees their lead.

With the win in hand, let’s see what happened around the Junior Circuit as the Yankees continue to chase Tampa Bay for first place in the division while holding off the Red Sox for the top Wild Card spot.

Tampa Bay Rays (86-58) 7, Atlanta Braves (85-60) 1

While the Yankees were dealing with the lowly Rockies, the Rays had the task of taking on the first-place Atlanta Braves in Atlanta. Unfortunately, after the first inning everything skewed Tampa’s way.

Junior Caminero got the scoring started early with a solo shot in the first inning, but Atlanta countered with a rally in the bottom half fueled by singles from Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, and Drake Baldwin to tie the game right away. That was the only mark against Freddy Peralta’s line, as he went six innings and allowed just a pair of hits the rest of the way — he only struck out two batters, but he was efficient in collecting easy fly ball outs.

Meanwhile, the Rays weren’t satisfied with just one run. They struck for three runs in the third inning, Liam Hicks providing the big blow with a two-run shot before Victor Mesa Jr. singled in Michael Harris II, and after a throwing error gifted them a runner on third to start the fifth inning Yandy Díaz hit a ground ball in the right spot to bring the run in. Díaz flexed his muscles in the eighth inning, lifting a solo shot to make it 6-1 Tampa, and Richie Palacios tacked on the final run with a homer of his own in the ninth.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (80-66) 1, Los Angeles Angels (55-90) 6: The Angels may be inept, but they can run into wins every now and then — especially against one of their former pitchers. Patrick Sandoval was an Angel for six seasons before missing all of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Sox signed him before that season to a two-year deal to build him up for this year, and while he’s been mostly OK he’s had trouble keeping runners off the basepaths and that flared up big-time in this outing.

Los Angeles scattered 10 hits across six innings against Sandoval, a big chunk of the 15 hits they’d collect throughout the night, and managed to score four off of their former pitcher starting with a double play that converted a run in the second inning. Jose Siri and Vaughn Grissom singled in runs in the third to extend the lead to 3-0, and another double play ball that brought in a run made it 4-0 in the fifth — if it weren’t for the traded outs, Sandoval’s day could’ve looked a lot uglier.

Sandoval’s efforts to limit the damage hardly mattered though, because the Sox offense couldn’t solve Reid Detmers. Detmers matched Sandoval with six innings of labor, but he blanked Boston on the scoreboard as he allowed just a single hit and one walk against nine strikeouts. The Sox immediately got something going when Detmers was lifted for José Fermin to start the seventh, Trevor Story leading off with a double before Nick Sogard singled him in, but after Caleb Durbin walked the rally fizzled out and the spark never returned. The Angels added two in the ninth for good measure on a Zach Neto two-run shot, capping off a 4-for-5 day for the shortstop, but the insurance runs weren’t necessary as Boston stranded a leadoff single in the ninth.

Chicago White Sox (75-69) 3, Pittsburgh Pirates (72-73) 9: The Pirates scored all they would need in the very first inning, scoring five of the seven runs they’d get against Sean Burke right out of the gate. Konnor Griffin led off with a double, Brandon Lowe walked, and Bryan Reynolds doubled to start the scoring before Oneil Cruz doubled in both runners. Esmerlyn Valdez kept the double chain going with a ground-rule double that brought in Cruz, and Spencer Horwitz changed things up with a single up the middle to score the fifth run all before Burke could record an out. Horwitz would get up to bat in the second inning with runners on and single in two more to end Burke’s day after just 1.1 innings, and the White Sox never really recovered from there.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Houston Astros (74-71) 6, Philadelphia Phillies (81-64) 5: Don’t look now, but the Astros might be making a run to finally be the AL West team that breaks out of the Rock Fight. They’re a whopping three-games over .500 now after taking a narrow contest over a good Phillies team, fueled by four runs in the second inning as Christian Walker hit a three-run homer. Cam Smith added a solo shot in the fourth to make it 5-0 Houston, but Philadelphia answered back as Trea Turner hit a two-run shot in the sixth to pull within two runs. The Phillies got an RBI double from Edmundo Sosa to close the gap to one run and put the tying run in scoring position in the ninth, but a pair of fly outs and an easy pop up ended the comeback attempt.

Cleveland Guardians (74-72) 9, Baltimore Orioles (70-76) 5: Cleveland is right on Chicago’s trail after Tuesday’s contests, the Guardians winning thanks to an early outburst from their offense. A leadoff double was converted into a 1-0 lead on a Jo Adell RBI single in the first, and the second saw Cleveland plate four after Angel Martínez tripled and scored on a single before Travis Bazzana hit a three-run shot. Petey Halpin singled in one more in the third to make it 6-0, but Baltimore fought back with a run in the fourth before scoring four in the fifth capped off by a Pete Alonso two-run blast to close within a run. A run-scoring error on what would’ve been the second out of the seventh turned into a three-run frame for Cleveland though, putting the game back out of reach.

Toronto Blue Jays (73-73) 4, Athletics (58-88) 2: The Jays collected 11 hits against the A’s, but runs were still at a bit of a premium despite lifting a pair of those hits out of the park. Josh Smith and Kazuma Okamoto hit back-to-back homers in the second to give Toronto an early lead, the A’s cutting into that with a run in the fourth on a Carlos Cortes solo shot. The sixth saw them cash in the remainder of their scoring, Alejandro Kirk singling in one before a double play managed to still bring in another run. Donovan Walton lifted a solo shot in the seventh for the A’s, but the two blasts were all they could convert on.

Texas Rangers (72-73) 10, Seattle Mariners (67-78) 5: In the battle of disappointing teams out West, Texas came out on top thanks to a big five-run fifth inning where Wyatt Langford and Danny Jansen both homered to turn a narrow 4-3 lead into a comfortable 9-3 contest. Cal Quantrill turned in six innings of three-run ball for Texas, and the bullpen was able to limit Seattle to just two more runs over the last three innings to prevent this one from slipping back into the home team’s reach.

Playoffs have begun for at least one farm team. How did the kids do?

Lehigh Valley 5, Worcester 4

Otto Kemp.

Jack of all trades, master of none.

It was pretty funny that the Phillies thought they could make something out of Kemp when they haven’t properly developed a hitting prospect in years. Thinking that Kemp was more than deserving of the dreaded “Quad-A player” label was a miscalculation on their part, but at least now he’s where he belongs. Kemp homered last night with the IronPigs as they start to wind things down on their own season. The star of the offense though was Carter Kieboom, who had a one out bases loaded single to score two in the bottom of the tenth to walk off the WooSox, giving the IronPigs the dub. Tanner Banks threw 2 1/3 innings of scoreless relief as he continues to make his case to have a role with the Phillies moving forward as a multi innings reliever that can help them deeper into October.

Erie 6, Reading 1

A whole lot of nothing for the Fightin Phils, who begin their final week of the season with a meek showing on offense and a tired pitcher on the mound. Bryan Rincon accounted for the lone run of the game for Reading, homering in the bottom of the third inning, his 24th home run of the season. What a year this young man has had. On the bump, Cody Bowker was roughed up a bit, allowing five runs over five innings. He’s approaching 100 innings on the year and might be hitting a wall a bit, but there is a bright future for him if he can build on this season’s success.

Tampa 2, Clearwater 0

The Threshers began their playoffs with a rehab start from Nestor Cortes where he allowed a run in a long inning of work, Brad Pacheco allowing only one run in his bulk inning role, throwing 5 2/3 innings where he walked four and struck out five…..and a whole lot of nothing at the plate. Maybe the Tampa Tarpons just want it more. Three total hits was all they could gather for themselves, not giving themselves a chance to take the first game of the three game series. Game two is Thursday.

Good morning friends!

The Mariners’ bats couldn’t keep up last night in a 10-5 loss to the Rangers, though Lazaro Montes dazzled with his light-tower power. Kade Anderson takes the hill today in the middle match with first pitch set for 1:10pm PT.

In Mariners news…

• Former Mariners first baseman Pat Putnam passed away recently at the age of 72.
• One of the Mariners’ recent draft picks spoke about the team’s development plan for him.

• Ace Reese is off to the best start offensively among his draft class.

• This is a pretty awesome group supporting such a great cause!

Around the league…

• Braves right-hander Bryce Elder will miss the next 3-4 weeks after undergoing a knee scope to clear bone fragments.
• George Bowles at Viva El Birdos outlined where it all went wrong for the Cardinals this year.
• Jeff Passan at ESPN ranked the cities most likely to be awarded an expansion franchise after this upcoming CBA is agreed upon — and the #1 on the list may surprise you.
• Ryan Blake tried to look on the bright side for the Pirates following a horrific second half offensively.

Anders’ picks…

• Matt Yoder at Awful Announcing shamed LeBron James and the other celebrities who joined him for his new Polymarket ad.
• Holy hell, this looks incredible.

On a recent episode of Uncs on Lansdowne, the critical darling seldom featured on the Pod on Lansdowne podcast feed, host and Over The Monster editor Dan Secatore mentioned recently watching Tenet. If you’ve ever watched Tenet and claim to understand the plot, you’re a liar. If you haven’t watched Tenet, it’s a wildly confusing movie where things are moving forward and backwards at the same time, and Robert Pattinson is there, and John David Washington talks about hot sauce. As a movie guy and as a pitching guy, I feel the same way about Tenet as I do about Brayan Bello. I want to like it, but I don’t really understand what’s going on.

I’m a nerd. I like stats. I use my eyes to verify the numbers, but when in doubt, I lean towards what the stats are telling me rather than the intangibles. In the case of Brayan Bello, my head is in a pretzel. Just a few months ago, I posited that his success had little to do with his role, and more with some mechanical and strategic changes he made that coincided with his move to the bullpen. One day later, he allowed eight earned runs over five innings. He was demoted to AAA-Worcester, returned about a month later, and allowed four earned runs over his next 29.1 innings out of the bullpen.

I’m not the type to cross-reference the position of the sun and the moon with Bello’s astrological sign, or try to hack his Apple Watch to see how much he was sleeping the night before his appearances to try to get to the bottom of this. I’m stubborn, so I’m back to looking at the numbers. Here are some high-level numbers from his cold streak in the rotation, and subsequent hot streak in the bullpen.

He cut down the walk rate significantly, and more than doubled his strikeout rate against righties. How exactly he made such an improvement is a more complex question. Let’s start with the simplest explanation for the improvement — he was throwing harder. Across the board, his velocity was up. His sweeper was the smallest gainer at just 0.4 mph, but his sinker was up 1.7 mph, his four-seam 1.0, and his slider 2.4. Throwing harder, all else equal, is a good thing.

That’s not the only difference, though. We’ll start with lefties. Bello entirely cut out his curveball. In March and April, the pitch was in the zone just 35% of the time and returned 44% strikes while accounting for 13% of his arsenal. Any pitch that returns 44% strikes isn’t worth throwing, so cutting it out was low-hanging fruit. The curveball also accounted for 28% of his two-strike pitches against lefties, generating just three strikeouts. He also slashed his cutter usage from 22% down to 10%. The cutter had a huge swinging strike rate, but lefties were often able to get around the pitch, pulling the ball for massive slugging numbers. He replaced those two pitches with more changeups (+15.6%) and four-seam fastballs (+9.3%). The swinging strike rate against the changeup was down, but better locations created more ground balls and weak contact. His four-seam still, and likely never will be a good pitch, but he was able to keep it above the zone as something to change the eye level and away from trouble during his hot streak from the pen.

His sinker was also better. Aside from the higher velocity, his locations were vastly improved.

They’re probably more elevated than he’d like, but his early-season, low and glove-side sinkers weren’t effective. The strike rate in both samples was only about 60%, but keeping the ball away from lefties led to more ground balls and easy outs. A 6% K-BB% is still far from an encouraging mark, but it’s much better than the -2% mark he posted to begin the season. His changed approach against lefties was far from perfect, but it was a step in the right direction.

Against righties was where the major improvements came. Strike throwing was an issue to begin the season (8% walk rate against righties), but it improved out of the bullpen. His sinker strike rate increased nearly 15% thanks to a 15% increase in zone rate. His sweeper also became a big swing-and-miss pitch. The velocity and the usage rate remained roughly the same, but he returned to the majors with two extra inches of horizontal movement. The swinging strike rate jumped almost 8% with better locations low and on the glove side.

Bello also returned to an old game plan by throwing more changeups to righties. In each of his first three seasons, he used his changeup to righties about 15% of the time, getting massive swinging strike rates with it. The hard contact numbers were ugly, however, and he cut out the pitch almost entirely in 2025. The strike rate was low at 56%, but it was a source of whiffs for him.

With better strike-throwing and a legitimate whiff pitch in his sweeper, Bello was able to balloon his strikeout rate and keep righties off the bases, limiting big innings.

Of the changes he made, I think increased velocity might be the most impactful. He failed to locate his sinker on the arm side against righties out of the bullpen, but was still able to survive in the zone and get strikes at a high rate. It’s hard to attribute those velo gains to one thing, but shorter outings from the pen likely allowed him to throw harder. The increased sweeper movement and improved changeup command were important as well, but Bello will often go as far as his strike-throwing can take him.

On Monday, Bello took the ball as a starter for the first time since June 4th, a five-inning, eight-earned-run appearance. He turned in five shutout innings, allowing four hits, two walks, and striking out seven. So the monkey is off his back, and he can go back to pitching from the rotation, right? Right???

I’ll start by saying, yes, it was a good outing. He threw five innings without allowing a run. That’s the job. At the same time, the Bello that showed up on Monday was far from the dominant pitcher we saw in July and August. His sinker was all over the map and went for just 60% strikes. His four-seam caught too much of the plate and was hit hard, while his cutter found the zone just twice in eight offerings. His sweeper was still good, inducing seven whiffs, but his changeup wasn’t fooling anyone and went for just one whiff.

Is it because he was working as a starter? What is the plot of Tenet? The answer to both questions is: I don’t fully know. He struggled in his bullpen outings against the Yankees and Mariners, surrendering eight earned runs over 7.1 innings between the two outings as he had a hard time throwing strikes. If you forced me to answer the questions, I would probably say something about a “Temporal Pincer Movement,” which is a term Christopher Nolan wrote that has stuck in my head because it sounds cool despite me not really getting it. I’d also probably ask you why we consider John David Washington a good actor when he hasn’t really turned in many (any?) good performances besides Black KkKlansman. At that point, I’d expect you to tell me to shut up and focus on the Bello portion of the question, and I’d say he’s probably an okay pitcher, with streaky command, whose location issues were, at least in part, masked by increased velocity out of the bullpen.

Bello is talented. He’s been a dominant pitcher for stretches during his career. He’s also been wildly inconsistent. His arm angle has fluctuated, and he’s gone from using the windup to pitching solely from the stretch and back more than once. For the 2026 Red Sox, he’s a perfect inning eater as the team uses cruise control to finish as the second Wild Card. In the postseason, he’ll likely be on a short leash due to his volatility, if he’s on the roster at all. In the future, he’s a prime change-of-scenery candidate who could be a great pitcher with the right coaching.

P.S. Just because I can’t explain Tenet doesn’t mean I didn’t like it. It looks cool, and sometimes that’s all you need. Tune in next week when I explain why Dan’s wife was correct in saying that Richard Linklater’s “Before” series is pretentious and sucks.

Happy Wednesday A’s fans,

Last night, the Blue Jays evened this three-game series with a 4-2 victory, setting up this afternoon’s rubber match.

With 15 games remaining in the regular season, the A’s main mission should be to avoid 100 losses while continuing to develop players ahead of what is hopefully a more competitive 2027 season. Lately, the team has done a good job of playing spoiler, which it will have the chance to continue doing in upcoming games against the Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros.

The Green and Gold will get one of their best hitters back for the final part of the season. Shea Langeliers will start a rehab assignment tomorrow with Triple-A Las Vegas, lining him up to return during next week’s road trip. Langeliers will only serve as the designated hitter, as the team does not want its star catcher to re-injure himself on defense.

This offseason’s owner-imposed lockout will likely result in a shortened or unusual free-agency and trade market. With MLB’s CBA agreement expiring on December 1, that leaves around a month for free agents to sign contracts and trades to happen before the league shuts down for an uncertain period of time.

Given the unique circumstances, it would behoove the Athletics to hire a new general manager sooner rather than later so that person can get started on assembling a roster that will bring the A’s back to the postseason.

What do you think about Langeliers rushing back to get in some games before the long offseason? Which players are you looking forward to evaluating over these final few contests? Which pitchers should the A’s target this offseason to improve a league-worst pitching staff?

A’s Coverage:

• Blue Jays Win 4-2 to Even Series
• A’s Walk Off Blue Jays 6-5
• Mariners Defeat A’s 2-0 in Road Trip Finale
• “Fast Movers” Might Be Key To Contention
• Bi-Polar Performance Arcs Make Evaluation Difficult
• A’s Escape Texas With A Win, Beat Rangers 9-2
• A’s Designate José Suarez For Assignment
• Q&A: Clarke determined to finish strong with A’s after long IL stint
• White exits with back tightness as A’s injury woes continue
• It’s Been a Bummer Summer in Sacramento
• The A’s valuation rises with sales of 2 MLB clubs as Las Vegas move looms
• Your 2026 Hacktastic A’s
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Daejon Love case brings back Eric Byrnes’ bizarre story of an A’s bat boy impersonation
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app
• How defensive whiz Clarke’s return will impact A’s
• How A’s catcher Bruce Maxwell brought taking a knee to MLB and what happened afterwards
• A’s Plan to Test Top Pitching Prospect Jamie Arnold at Next Level
• Separating The Wheat From The Chaff Not So Easy
• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Why Athletics Will Have Scary Offense in 2027
• Underdog Athletics prospect Cole Conn playing like a big dog for Aviators
• Behind the Plate, the A’s Face an Offseason Reckoning
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season

MLB News and Interest:

• Breaking down the candidates for MLB’s next expansion teams
• Bracket, tiebreakers and more: Here is the current playoff picture
• Predicting the 2026 Gold Glove Award winners
• MLB players on salary cap, CBA talks, potential lockout, more
• Previewing the top MLB free agents for the 2026-2027 offseason
• Judge is back! Yanks activate captain after 3 months on IL
• 250 for 250: Top 10 individual seasons
• 32-year-old journeyman throws first individual perfect game in Minors since 2017
• Burnes pitches three scoreless innings in return from Tommy John surgery
• Umpire Doug Eddings apologizes to Cardinals pitcher Hansel Rincon after MLB reportedly reprimanded him for telling rookie to straighten crooked cap
• MLB hot seat: Which managers and execs have jobs on the line this month?
• Rookie of the Year races in AL, NL coming to conclusion as favorites pull away
• Cheers, then TWO homers! Rutschman makes memorable Camden return
• New Rays Owner: Stadium Deal Should Lead To Significant Payroll Increase
• Each team’s hottest pitching prospect right now
• Ranking the 10 most impactful Trade Deadline moves, one month later
• Mike Trout on ‘needed’ sale of Angels: It’s a ‘fresh start’
• Angels Notes: Stadium, Trout, Front Office
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Some signs of progress. Hopefully both sides can reach a new CBA agreement before it is too late to have a 2027 season.

Yikes!

Athletics minor-league outfielder Devin Taylor earned praise from Baseball America after his hot start at Triple-A Las Vegas.

Photo day!

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The Cleveland Guardians are priced as avery slim 51% favorite tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, with first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. 

Both starters are in good form right now, but my Guardians vs Orioles predictions target the hosts to pull out a victory at home. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9. 

Who will win Guardians vs Orioles today: Orioles (50%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Shane Baz is throwing the ball well for the Baltimore Orioles, limiting home-run damage lately while posting a 3.88 xERA over his last two starts.

Baz also owns an impressive 3.20 FIP at home, and despite scoring nine runs Tuesday, the Cleveland Guardians aren’t exactly flourishing offensively, posting an 83 wRC+ over the last week.

Foster Griffin has held his own, too. His underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better than the recent results indicate, but he has still surrendered five earned runs across his previous two outings.

The O’s aren’t swinging it with much authority overall, but they’ve performed respectably against left-handed pitching, producing a 102 wRC+ this season.

I’ll side with Baltimore at home.

Play this pick up to 55%.

COVERS INTEL: Baz is consistently inducing weak contact, allowing just a 26.5% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks. That's a massive improvement from his season average of 41.3%. 

Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (48%)

I’m leaning to the Under. Neither starter is giving up a boatload of runs right now, and the offensive profiles of both lineups do not exactly scream slugfest, either.

Cleveland is well below the league average in wRC+ lately, and Baltimore is in the same boat. The bullpens are also holding things together late in games.

The Guardians’ relief corps owns a stellar 2.79 xERA over its last 47 frames, while the Orioles’ bullpen has a 2.96 xERA over the last seven days.

While Baltimore’s relievers have been slightly home run prone, neither offense is slugging many homers right now.

The starters should keep tonight low-scoring, and the bullpens should keep things controlled as well.

Play this pick up to 53%.

Guardians vs Orioles home run prediction: Coby Mayo (20%)

Coby Mayo is an intriguing value pick tonight. He has gone deep twice in the last week while posting a .389 ISO and .333 average during that span.

The slugger is also consistently getting lift on the baseball, producing a 50% fly-ball rate over his previous six contests.

Griffin doesn’t allow a lot of home runs, but he has been a bit more vulnerable against right-handed hitters this season, surrendering 1.21 HR/9 with a fly-ball rate just under 40%. Cleveland’s bullpen has also allowed 39.3% of its contact in the air over the last week.

With a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate recently, Mayo has enough underlying power support to leave the yard.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Guardians vs Orioles weather

Weather looks clean at Camden Yards tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from the mid-80s into the upper 70s. Winds are noticeable around 12 to 14 mph, but rain chances sit at just 1% throughout, so there’s no delay concern and only a modest weather impact.

Guardians vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Guardians 51% | Orioles 50%
• Run line: Guardians -1.5 (39%) | Orioles +1.5 (62%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (53%) | Under 8.5 (48%)

Guardians vs Orioles trend

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the game total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Orioles.

How to watch Guardians vs Orioles and game info

Guardians vs Orioles latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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It's NFL opening day, but there's plenty of time to hammer home run and MLB player props this afternoon and build that kickoff bankroll. 

Kazuma Okamoto could pummel Sutter Health Park for a third straight day, but don't count out the Athletics vs. the Jays' bullpen.

These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, September 9. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Henry Bolte	11.5%
Kazuma Okamoto	22%
Cody Bellinger	17%
💲Today's HR parlay	173.1x

Home run prediction: Henry Bolte (11.5%)

I'm going long on a leadoff hitter who leads his team in swing speed and home runs while ranking second in HardHit% over the last two weeks. Henry Bolte has great pop for a leadoff guy, and he'll get to see an average Jays middle bullpen that could need six or seven arms today.

He's already 3-for-6 in the series with a homer and three runs scored, while adding four stolen bases. It's almost 100 degrees at Sutter Health Park, which is the best park for runs today, per Ballpark Pal.

I have Zack Gelof as a good look here as well at 5.8x, but getting a similar projection at 8.7x is the move. If you can't get Bolte at 8x, I'd move to Gelof at 5.5x or better. There is a great opportunity for long balls this afternoon in Sacramento.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Kazuma Okamoto (22%)

If it weren't for rookie Kazuma Okamoto's power, the Jays would have hit just 110 home runs, as he's accounted for 21.4% of the club's total. He's already gone deep twice down the left-field line at Sutter Health Park and is looking to dinger-sweep the series.

Okamoto shouldn't be longer than 3x at this park, especially with near-100-degree temperatures and a plus-plus hitting matchup.

Both clubs will be going with bullpen days, and there are some stat-stuffers on the Athletics' side. Both teams can stack runs today, and I think the A's can be competitive. But with the heat and matchup, I'll take the only trusted Toronto bat at three percentage points above my fair price.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Cody Bellinger (17%)

I want a left-handed bat in the Bronx today, and Cody Bellinger is answering the call at 17%, with a fair probability of 20%.

He might not be in the best form since coming over, but he's at least hitting .290 and seeing the ball well. It's the matchup and setting that are pushing this into +EV territory.

There will be 14-mph winds blowing out to left-center field at Yankee Stadium. Bellinger also gets a matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 60 home runs over the last two seasons, the second-most in baseball behind Shoto Imanaga (64).

Lefties have taken Sugano deep at a higher rate, with a home run coming every 15.7 plate appearances, which is a huge number. The Rockies' bullpen is also very serviceable, adding to the dinger chances in a Mickey Mouse park.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES Network, Rockies.TV

Best home run combo for September 9

Henry Bolte	Trade Now 173.1x
Kazuma Okamoto
Cody Bellinger

Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!

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The Atlanta Braves are 54% favorites over the visiting Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga.

However, my Rays vs. Braves prediction and MLB picks fade the home team, with a returning Reynaldo Lopez slated to take the mound after missing more than a month with a knee injury in his plant leg.

Expect Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and the rest of Tampa's pesky lineup to drive a rusty Lopez mad. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Who will win Rays vs Braves today: Rays (47%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Reynaldo Lopez will slot back into the Atlanta Braves rotation today against the Tampa Bay Rays. The veteran right-hander hasn't pitched in the majors since July 26 and has spent the last month and change on the injured list with left knee inflammation.

Before his injury, he put together a 4-3 record with a 3.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The latter stat is the concerning number, as it helps explain why his expected ERA is 4.63.

No team strikes out less often than the Rays, who have an 18.4% strikeout rate as a unit. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are the only other teams that go down on strikes less than 20% of the time.

That will be dangerous terrain for Lopez. His fastball is his most-used pitch, and it's down more than a full mile per hour (95.5 to 94.2) from his last healthy season, 2024.

Coming off injury and already showing less impressive stuff before hitting the shelf, Lopez will be in tough shape against a Rays offense that will pester him repeatedly, especially Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, both of whom limit whiffs with the best of them and do damage when challenged.

Tampa is a road underdog, but I'd take the Rays on the moneyline all the way to 53%. 

COVERS INTEL: Lopez wasn't missing many bats before his injury, recording a 14th-percentile chase rate and a 23rd-percentile whiff rate. Even in conditions that don't favor power, Tampa's best contact bats can chip away at the righty.

Rays vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53%)

Yes, I expect the Rays will get to Lopez, but that doesn't mean this will be a high-scoring affair.

Griffin Jax is a ground-ball pitcher and will benefit from the weather conditions at Truist Park. While it will be humid, the high barometric pressure and wind blowing in from left field will suppress power. Per Ballpark Pal, this game has the worst hitting conditions on the slate.

This will also help Lopez keep it in the yard after getting burned by gopher-ball before his injury.

The Braves surrendered seven runs in last night's loss, but they only used two relievers, so the bullpen is fairly well-stocked.

I'm surprised the O/U isn't listed at 7.5, so I'll happily take the Under 8.5 and would play it to 58%. 

Rays vs Braves home run prediction: Drake Baldwin (16%)

I don't love the hitting conditions and wouldn't go heavy on anyone to clear the fences.

But while Jax trends toward the ground ball, he has been somewhat prone to homers in 2026.

So, I'll take Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. The lefty slugger has hit the bulk of his home runs to right field this season, and with wind moving from left to right, he could get a little boost if he executes. 

Baldwin ranks in the 84th percentile in barrel rate, the 86th in average exit velocity, the 88th in bat speed, and the 93rd in hard-hit rate. This is the kind of profile that can overcome sketchy weather.

Rays vs Braves weather

It will be a fairly humid night in Atlanta, with temperatures ranging between 83 and 90 degrees, but wind blowing in from left field, capping power potential a bit. The high barometric pressure will also make it difficult to elevate pitches.

Rays vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Rays 47% | Braves 54%
• Run line: Rays +1.5 (65%) | Braves -1.5 (37%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Rays vs Braves trend

The Rays have hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Braves.

How to watch Rays vs Braves and game info

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No Mason Miller, no problem for the San Diego Padres.

Adrian Morejon came in for the third time in as many days having thrown 27 pitches over the previous two outings. San Diego’s All-Star closer was unavailable to close out a 5-4 comeback win for the Padres over the Washington Nationals at Petco Park on Tuesday which set the stage for Morejon. The left-hander needed just seven pitches to get through the top of the ninth inning to save a one-run win over the Nationals. Morejon’s performance was just what San Diego needed after a four-run bottom of the eighth inning gave the Padres the lead.

San Diego trailed throughout the game and did not have a hit against Washington, which employed a bullpen game. Luis Campusano hit a line drive single to left field in the bottom of the fifth inning for the first hit of the game for the Padres and he was responsible for what proved to be the game-winner in the bottom of the eighth inning. Campusano hit a broken bat flare into shallow center field that fell between three Washington fielders. That allowed Manny Machado to score to give the Padres their fourth run of the inning and the first lead of the game.

Machado was at the plate earlier in the inning with San Diego trailing 4-2 with one out in the eighth. Freddy Fermin was on third base and Fernando Tatis Jr. was at second after a walk and a passed ball allowed him to get on base and move into scoring position. Machado battled in his at-bat before he was able to chop a changeup back through the middle of the infield into center field. Fermin scored easily and Tatis was able to score standing up to tie the game at 4-4.

The Padres got their first run of the game in the bottom of the seventh inning when Jackson Merrill hit a sacrifice fly ball to right field, with Machado on third base and Ty France at second. The sacrifice by Merrill allowed Machado to tag up and score to get San Diego on the board, 3-1. Yuki Matsui surrendered a run in the top of the eighth, which put the Padres down 4-1 before the eighth inning heroics gave them the lead and eventually the win.

Casey Mize started for San Diego and had a solid outing. He allowed three runs on four hits over 5.2 innings. Mize allowed one walk and struck out seven batters. He left the game with the Padres trailing 1-0 but had runners at first and second after allowing a double and a walk. Randy Vasquez came on to try to get San Diego out of the inning needing just one more out. He allowed a double to Brady House, which allowed both Washington runners to score, giving Mize three earned runs in the game.

San Diego will go for the series sweep today at 1:10 p.m. If the Padres can complete the sweep, they will finish their home stand with a 5-1 record before hitting the road for three games in San Francisco and four games in Colorado.

Padres News:

• Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball believes Joe Musgrove may have given the Friar Faithful a hint at his future in recent comments.

• Jason Adam is working in the minor league system, attempting to make his return to the Padres.

• The Padres added a veteran reliever on a minor league deal after releasing two other players in the minor league system earlier in the day.

Baseball News:

• The Milwaukee Brewers got a walk-off win over the Chicago Cubs to earn their 90th win of the season.

• Cam Schlittler continued his dominant season and led the New York Yankees to a win.

• Corbin Burnes returned for the Arizona Diamondbacks who got another extra-innings win over the Kansas City Royals.

• The Houston Astros edged out the Philadelphia Phillies in a 6-5 win.

• Kazuma Okamoto hit his 30th home run of the season and the Toronto Blue Jays topped the Athletics.

A team doesn’t fall this short of expectations without at least a few players failing to meet their expected level of production. The Orioles are no exception. Gunnar Henderson has been in the spotlight all season for his lack of superstar production, but this rings true for several players. Colton Cowser has failed to make an impact on the offensive side of the ball. Andrew Kittredge has disappointed as a high-leverage reliever. Carlos Narvaez has not resembled a major league hitter since coming over in the Rutschman deal.

At the same time, a few players have punched above their weight class. Blaze Alexander emerged as one of Baltimore’s best hitters. Christian Encarnacion-Strand took full advantage when given an opportunity. Brandon Young grabbed onto a rotation spot and never let go.

The next three guys do not fit into either category. Dylan Beavers, Jackson Holliday, and Coby Mayo all have the potential to be above-average hitters but have yet to carve out consistent everyday roles with the team.

Mayo has made headlines as a lefty masher. His superhuman numbers against left-handers have elevated his OPS+ to an above-average 110. At the same time, only five of his 21 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. His .323/.384/.752 line against southpaws is certainly something to marvel at, but his struggles against righties remain a mystery. Mayo did not exhibit anything close to these platoon splits in the minors, and he still feels like a guy that can figure it out with time. The numbers against lefties are destined to decrease, but a 110 OPS+ feels repeatable with heavy power numbers.

The Orioles made the decision to roll with Mayo out of necessity when Jordan Westburg went down. The team could have deployed a glove-first option at the hot corner, but the team gave Mayo an extended window to work out his defensive kinks. Things were not pretty early in the year, but Mayo rewarded the Orioles for sticking with him early in the season.

Mayo’s defense was a story all spring, but all three of these guys have significant room to improve. Beavers entered last night’s game with a -7 Fielding Run Value. Holliday started the game at -4. Mayo actually checked in as the “best” of the three with only a -2 FRV.

Holliday missed the beginning of the season after having his hamate bone removed. Players often struggle to regain their power after the procedure, and Holliday followed suit. He’s tallied only seven home runs over 92 games and has struggled to get going outside of a red-hot July.

The Orioles believed in Beavers enough to hold him back last summer until the deadline for PPI players had passed. Did the organization really view Beavers as a candidate for rookie of the year? The 25-year-old has failed to meet that expectation, but he continues to show an ability to get on base. Beavers currently holds a 101 OPS+ despite a rocky season that saw him miss well over a month with an oblique strain.

Mayo received an early opportunity and eventually clawed his way into the heart of the order. Holliday struggled before catching fire in July. An injury to Blaze Alexander cemented Holliday as an everyday player and eventually created an opportunity at the top of the lineup. Beavers fell back into a timeshare with a mediocre outfield, but he remains a long term option.

All three of these guys have room to grow on defense, and they’ve all been inconsistent at the plate, but the thing that really brings them together is a need for daily reps. With this season all but lost, will these guys be guaranteed the opportunity in 2027?

The early years of the Mike Elias tenure were brutal, but at least fans knew what to expect. Developing talent was the most strategically relevant goal, and the team could afford to give players an extended leash. The Orioles have tried (and failed) to put together a winning team over the last two seasons, and they will enter the offseason looking to win in 2027. How will they value this trio moving forward?

The team isn’t going to cut bait with any of these guys. Holliday is a former number one pick that should benefit from a healthy offseason and another year of quality instruction from his father. Mayo has all the power in the world, but will the team look to unlock his bat against righties? Does the team view Beavers as a starter or an extra outfielder?

The product on the field has been bleak over the last week. Pete Alonso has been great, but some of these guys have played brutal baseball. Beavers, Holliday and Mayo haven’t been the problem, but they’ll finish this season with a lot of meat left on the bone. Can the Orioles find a way to unlock that potential moving forward?

A throwaway today, but I can at least provide some interesting-ish context.

The Braves were third in homers through April, and pushed up to second in May. Then June happened and June was June, and the Braves fell all the way down to 12th. Their July homer binge, driven in part by so many pulled flies down the line, kicked them back up to fourth. They dropped to seventh by the end of August, which is where they sit right now.

There are about three weeks left in the season. Four teams (Mets, Athletics, Dodgers, Orioles) are less than ten behind the Braves. The White Sox and Astros are less than ten ahead of the Braves. The overall spread of homers-per-game in the league goes from 1.4 (Cubs) to 0.9 (Brewers); with 18 games left, it seems unlikely that the Braves will catch the currently-fourth Yankees (13 more homers right now) or fall as far back as the 12th-ranked Phillies (12 fewer homers right now). But, they’re also not quite on a homer binge right now (the opposite really) so that tilts the calculus a bit.

I’ll say they finish tenth, which will end up being a veiled reference to the fact that they have easily top-ten homer skill but faltered in execution pretty badly for long stretches over the course of the season.

This one hurt.

The Cubs were one strike away from a stirring, ninth-inning rally win over the rival Brewers.

Then: Single, two-run homer smashed halfway to the moon off Jacob Webb, and eventually a 10-inning loss, 4-3 to Milwaukee.

For those of you of a certain age, you were likely reminded of this game, almost exactly 57 years ago to the day, that helped kill the 1969 Cubs.

Fortunately for the 2026 Cubs, there are more postseason spots available now than back then, and the Cubs are still likely headed for a wild card series. Maybe. Possibly. Hopefully.

Sigh. Let’s recap, shall we?

The Cubs jumped on Jacob Misiorowski for a run in the first inning. Seiya Suzuki hit a one-out double and one out later, Michael Busch singled him in [VIDEO].

The Brewers came back to tie the game in the bottom of the inning on a double by Jackson Chourio and single by Brice Turang.

And that is where the score stayed until the ninth inning. David Peterson settled down, but had to be removed in the fifth at 83 pitches, only 47 of which were strikes. About that, from BCB’s JohnW53:

David Peterson became the 11th different Cubs starter this year to complete four innings but not five. Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon did it four times; Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea, three; Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes, two; and Peterson and Jordan Wicks, one.

That adds up to 27 starts, one of every 5.4 total starts.

From the second through the eighth, the Brewers got just three runners past first base. Along the way, the Cubs got a great defensive play from Matt Shaw in the second [VIDEO].

In the fifth, the Brewers had runners on first and second when Peterson was removed with one out. Trent Thornton relieved Peterson and struck out pinch-hitter Jake Bauers.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

That was just a fantastic throw from Suzuki and great tag by Miguel Amaya.

But the Cubs got only one runner past first base from the second through the eighth. That was Pete Crow-Armstrong, who singled with two out in the fifth and stole second, his 36th [VIDEO].

That was also PCA’s 100th career stolen base. More on that from John:

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s stolen base was his 100th. He is the 34th Cub to reach triple digits but only the ninth who played after 1947. Of those, Ryne Sandberg stole 344; Sammy Sosa, 181; Shawon Dunston, 175; Ivan de Jesus, 154; Nico Hoerner, 153; Jose Cardenal, 129; Bob Dernier, 119; and Ryan Theriot, 100.

But he was stranded.

The Cubs got some excellent relief work from Aaron Civale, who has been a revelation in the pen. He retired all six batters he faced, four by strikeout, and for an outing with that many K’s, it was efficient: Just 26 pitches, 19 of which were strikes. Ryan Rolison threw a scoreless eighth on just 13 pitches (nine strikes).

Then the Cubs took the lead in the ninth. Nico Hoerner and Pedro Ramirez led off with singles. Matt Shaw was called out on strikes, but Michael Conforto then walked to load the bases.

Craig Counsell sent Carson Kelly up to bat for Amaya. Kelly had an excellent at-bat, fouling off a whole bunch of pitches before hitting this two-run double [VIDEO].

As you can see, that didn’t miss being a grand slam by much, and, well, that would have helped.

In any case, the Cubs led 3-1 going to the bottom of the ninth. Webb retired the first two Brewers on just seven pitches. Webb ran an 0-2 count on pinch-hitter Christian Yelich.

One. Strike. Away.

Yelich ran the count full and then singled. Chourio, who had been 3-for-4 coming into this at-bat, slammed Webb’s second pitch out of the yard at 110 miles per hour to tie the game.

A fly out ended the inning and on to extras it went.

Suzuki was the placed runner. Bregman flied to right. Suzuki tried to take third, the right thing to do in this situation, but he overslid the base and was thrown out [VIDEO].

Thus the Cubs did not score in the 10th, and that gave them a near-impossible situation in the bottom of the inning. Caleb Thielbar entered to pitch and struck out Bauers, and then William Contreras was given an intentional pass. A single by Sal Frelick loaded the bases, and Luis Lara singled in the game-winner.

Sigh, again.

Here are postgame remarks from Webb [VIDEO].

Credit, at least, to Webb for being a standup guy.

Here are Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

One more note on this one from John:

This was the 11th game of the season in which the Cubs blew multiple leads. They are 5-6 in such games.

They have blown 63 leads, 24 of them in the next half-inning after going ahead, including both Wednesday night.
In all games in which they have blown leads, the Cubs are 23-29. They have lost nine in a row starting on Aug. 21. They had won five straight before then.

As bad as this feels, this is not the end of the world. The Cubs still trail the Phillies for the top wild card spot by just half a game, as the Phillies also lost Tuesday. The Cubs lead the Diamondbacks by three games and the Padres by 3.5 in the wild card race. As you know, the Cubs have the tiebreaker over all three of those teams. That might become very, very important.

The Cubs will try to salvage the final regular season game against the Brewers Wednesday evening in Milwaukee. It’ll be the third straight pitching rematch from last week: Kevin Gausman vs. Logan Henderson. Gausman had a really good game last week; here’s hoping for another just like that. Game time is 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Happy Wednesday, folks. Last night, Tanner Houck completed his first rehab assignment since undergoing Tommy John Surgery in August 2025. He threw 20 pitches, 8 for strikes, and allowed a run in 0.2 innings. Regardless of the results, getting back on the mound for the first time in two years is a step in the right direction. Assuming he recovers well, he’ll throw in another game later this week, ramping up to closer to 40 pitches. If all goes well, Houck could be in the mix for the playoff pitching staff.

Do you trust him, though? His best season was back in 2024, and there was little track record before that. At the same time, one of his biggest issues is getting through lineups multiple times. In a bullpen role, that becomes irrelevant. Lefties are another question, but pitching as a reliever allows Chad Tracy to pick his spots to deploy the righty. Despite these “solutions” to his weaknesses, will the rust be too tough to shake off? Strike-throwing and the lack of a third pitch are also questions.

I’m personally skeptical, but what do you think? Is his major league experience enough to displace Wyatt Olds or Greg Weissert on the staff, or should Houck be left on the shelf until 2027? USe this space to talk about what you want and be good to one another.

The Mets continue a three-game series against the Marlins in Miami on Tuesday night at 7:10 p.m. on SNY.

Mets Notes

• A.J. Ewing is hitting .379/.455/.586 with a homer and three doubles in 33 plate appearances over his last eight games
• Carson Benge is slashing .295/.357/.445 (.802 OPS) in 109 games dating back to May 3
• Nate Lavender has fired 14.0 scoreless innings with a 0.71 WHIP since making his big league debut

Today's Lineups