Category: Baseball

The Wild Card Race

Every win against the Dodgers is cause to celebrate, from the perspective that the underdog winner against the odds, and from the perspective that every win is a step closer to the NL Wild card into the playoffs, where anything could happen.

The Dodgers can be beat.  After the Red Sox swept the Dodgers (31 July to 2 August), Dave Roberts said, “…If you look at it unemotionally, they outplayed us.  You know, they were hungrier….”  Recent wins show that the Diamondbacks are intensely hungry to reach the playoffs. And in July, the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in a 3-game series.

Will the Dodgers avenge their lost series in July, or will the Diamondbacks repeat with a second consecutive series win?

Let’s compare the teams.

The Obvious. Two points.

• The Dodgers are heavy favorites to reach and win the World Series.  They added Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline.  Their players are talented and their depth is outstanding.
• The Diamondbacks are intensely focusing on their mission to reach the playoffs.  Although they are underdogs, they have real chances to win the series against the Dodgers.

The Subtle. Although the Diamondbacks have a well deserved reputation for excellent defense, one defensive metric agrees with that idea, and another defensive metric disagrees with that idea.

• Outs Above Average (OAA). Diamondbacks are better (32 vs 21). OAA emphasizes range to reach ball and play difficulty.
• Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Dodgers are better (53 vs 20). DRS has a broader range of skills because it includes arm strngth, double plays, and other facets.

The Difference That Matters. The Diamondbacks defense is better in right field (7 DRS vs negative 5 DRS). The reason for the defensive difference is that Corbin Carroll has 9 OAA while Kyle Tucker has negative 6 OAA. In addition, Corbin Carroll bats better (OPS+ of 121 vs 100).

Dodgers Player to Watch.

Barring any last minute changes, the Diamondbacks will not see the new Dodgers starting pitcher. How would their trade deadline acquisition, Tarik Skubal, fare if he pitched against the Diamondbacks? 

In Skubal’s first start as a Dodger he lost, despite pitching a quality start. The Dodgers only scored one run in that game. For the season, the Dodgers have less runs scored per game than the Diamondbacks. Unless the Dodgers provide better run support, my view is that Skubal would not fare any better against the Diamondbacks.

Pitching Matchups.

The pitching matchups have not yet been announced. perhaps they will be as follows.

Friday, 6:40 PM MST.

Merrill Kelly vs Roki Sasaki. In July/August, Kelly had a better ERA (3.03 vs 4.00), while Sasaki had more quality starts (2 vs 1).

This matchup is slight advantage Diamondbacks.

Saturday, 5:10 PM MST.

Brandon Pfaadt vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Recently, each of these pitchers had a lot of quality starts (4 for Yamamoto and 3 for Pfaadt). However, in July/August, Pfaadt had a much better ERA (1.53 vs 3.00). 

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

Sunday, 1:10 PM MST.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Justin Wrobleski. In July/August, Rodriguez had a better ERA (4.19 vs 5.32), and he had more quality starts (4 vs 2). 

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

The Yankees continue to lean almost exclusively on their pitching staff to keep them in games, the offense managing two or fewer runs in six of their last seven games. It doesn’t feel like a sustainable approach, but for now it’s what they’ve got while they await the returns of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton from injury. Indeed, perhaps the best pitching performance of the last week belongs to Ryan Weathers, who completed six scoreless innings against the Cardinals to hand them their only win in that series.

We join Weathers in the sixth inning of the middle game against the Cardinals on Tuesday. His performance thus far continues a fascinating trend where the lefty seemingly pitches better the less run support he receives. Solo home runs by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and George Lombard Jr. on his MLB debut have staked Weathers to a 2-0 lead. However, he is facing the sternest test of this outing — runners on the corners with two outs following a JJ Wetherholt walk and Iván Herrera single with two outs as the top of the order faces Weathers for the third time.

Despite a pitch count of just 80, you get a sense that José Fermín will be the last batter Weathers faces — something Aaron Boone confirmed in his post game presser as he and Matt Blake perceived fatigue beginning to set in. To this point, Fermín has grounded out twice, Weathers attacking the righty with sinkers, changeups, and sliders, and there is no deviation in course as the Yankees lefty starts this encounter with a first-pitch sinker.

Weathers’ front shoulder opens a fraction early, causing him to sail this sinker well wide of the strike zone away. The result is a pretty straightforward take from Fermín against a pitch that never looked like a strike.

After Fermín spat on that outside sinker, a sneaky choice from Weathers would be a get-me-over backdoor sweeper for a called strike to get back into the count as it should look just like that sinker that missed out of the hand.

You can see how effective it is to follow a sinker called as a ball away with a backdoor sweeper. It looks just like the previous pitch, causing Fermín to give up on it early as it starts in the opposite batter’s box, only for its glove side movement to carry it back into the zone. It’s this type of sequencing that can cause a hitter to take a pitch that ends up pretty much down the middle.

Now that Weathers has shown Fermín a pitch that starts away before breaking back into the zone, it makes sense to follow it with a pitch away that breaks in the opposite direction — in this case the changeup.

Weathers executes an absolute beauty of a changeup dotted right on the corner low and away. You can see how much it looks like the previous sweeper that was called a strike, which explains why Fermín fouls this pitch to the opposite field, his swing expecting something that will break toward him resulting in the bat head staying too far inside a pitch that breaks away for him to barrel it.

It’s pretty obvious that Weathers is going to go away away away for the entire AB. Playing off of Fermín’s take on the first sweeper he threw for a called strike, Weathers tries to achieve the same result with another backdoor sweeper.

This time, Fermín is ready for the pitch. He too likely realized that Weathers is targeting the outer half of the strike zone, which means that a pitch that starts way outside is likely to be a backdoor breaker. Fermín correctly diagnoses that pitch out of Weathers’ hand and pulls the ball viciously down the third base line just foul. Despite the desired result with the first sweeper he threw, it’s a pretty dangerous pitch to throw multiple times against a righty. The sweeper suffers a significant platoon disadvantage against opposite-handed batters on account of the lift it generates relative to other breaking balls, and indeed you can see the way this sweeper enters the hitting zone pretty flat, which results in a pitch that breaks right into the nitro zone of a right-handed hitter.

Thankfully, Weathers abandons the pitch for the rest of the AB as he likely realizes that he dodged a bullet with Fermín not able to keep that batted ball fair. He returns to his trusty changeup — a much safer pitch to throw to a righty given that it breaks away from and not toward the barrel when employing an outer-half approach.

Unfortunately for Weathers, he opens his front side too early just like the first pitch sinker he threw, causing this changeup to sail way wide arm-side. You might think this was a non-competitive pitch given how far away it landed from the strike zone, but you can see how Fermín was initially tempted to chase away thanks to Weathers sequencing this changeup off the backdoor sweeper that preceded it.

With the sixth pitch, Weathers chooses to throw his first slider of the AB. Austin Wells sets an initial central aiming point, which should result in a back-foot slider given the pitch’s movement down and in.

Instead, Weathers nails that initial target that Wells flashes with his glove — an absolute cookie of a hanging slider right down the middle that he is lucky Fermín fails to punish. That’s three breaking balls — two sweepers and a slider — that Weathers leaves central, which should be enough to convince him to not throw another.

So far, the pitch that Weathers looks most likely to get Fermín to chase out of the zone is the changeup. If he can replicate his execution of the first one he threw, he should be able to end the inning with a strikeout or at least some weak contact.

This is now the third time that Weathers is unable to finish an arm-side breaking pitch to the outer half as it is now patently obvious that he has run out of steam and does not have the stamina to keep that front shoulder closed long enough to set his throwing arm down the correct path. Now, it’s just a matter of whether he can survive this AB as really only one of the seven pitches so far has been executed to its spot.

After six straight off-speed pitches, Weathers must feel that he can gas a heater by Fermín, his hand also forced a bit by Fermín battling back to work the count full and not wanting to load the bases for St Louis’ cleanup hitter.

Instead of commanding this sinker to the corner, Weathers leaves it up and catches more of the plate than you would like. This allows Fermín to barrel the pitch as he is absolutely ready to hit the fastball despite the steady diet of off-speed. It’s the first pitch Weathers has thrown that has an initial trajectory toward the inner half of the zone, which combined with the clear approach to pitch Fermín away makes it pretty obvious this is a fastball out of the hand. Luckily for Weathers and the Yankees, Fermín almost hits this ball too well, allowing it to hang up in the air long enough for Heliot Ramos to glove the liner for the final out, stranding runners on the corners as Weathers completes six shutout.

Here’s the full sequence:

Boone clearly made the right call to end Weathers’ night there at 88 pitches given the faltering command against the final three batters he faced. All the same, it represents yet another strong start for the Yankees’ southpaw, who has now allowed just one earned run in his last 20.1 innings pitched. As I hypothesized when writing about Weathers’ choice of fastball and as my colleague Andrés further investigated yesterday, Weathers’ U-turn comes courtesy of a shift in pitch usage, the lefty exchanging out many of his four-seamers for sinkers while also increasing deployment of the changeup and slider to mitigate the home run woes of the first half of his season.

This turnaround in form comes at just the right time for Weathers — he started his season off strong before encountering a serious sticky patch in May and early June, finding his footing as the Yankees crystalize their rotation plans with Carlos Rodón nearing a return from left elbow inflammation. Conversely, Will Warren has a 5.44 ERA in his last ten starts while Weathers owns a 2.89 ERA in his last nine over the same timeframe. At this point, it is clear who deserves to remain in the rotation vs. who has earned a demotion to the bullpen.

For the second straight series, the Phillies will face a team that sold at the deadline. The defending American League champions have endured a massively disappointing season, and now players like Daulton Varsho, Kevin Gausman, and Jeff Hoffman have been sent elsewhere. (Good luck to the Twins if they hope to use Hoffman in high leverage spots in a playoff game.)

The Blue Jays’ offense has been a disaster this season ranking dead last in runs scored despite the presence of stars like Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and George Springer. One bright spot earlier in the season was an import from Japan, but lately he’s been struggling as much as his teammates.

Opposition research: Kazuma Okamoto

When Japanese players come to MLB, they usually prefer to play for a West Coast team. But when former Nippon Professional League star Kazuma Okamoto came over, he took a different path. He apparently asked his daughter to pick her favorite logo, and she chose the Blue Jays.

It was suggested that the Phillies pursue him, but I’m not sure how serious their inquiries were. If they missed out, maybe this is a sign to change up their logo, perhaps to one that better appeals to the youth of Japan.

Despite getting off to a slow start, Okamoto had a solid first half of the season, putting up a .788 OPS with 22 home runs while playing solid defense at third base. (He won the equivalent of the Gold Glove in Japan, so this isn’t surprising.)

But he has slumped lately, batting just .208 over the past month.

The Phillies have done a relatively good job of shutting down his countryman Shohei Ohtani, and they’re off to a good start with Okamoto, limiting him to one hit in ten at bats when they faced him earlier this season.

Hating on the Blue Jays

The Dodgers are favorites to win their third straight championship this season, and that could have been prevented had the Blue Jays simply took care of business in the World Series last year.

Their misfortune this season is likely karmic punishment for not getting the job done.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: Joe Morgan showed up big in the 1983 World Series, with a 1.018 OPS and two home runs. (Too bad his teammates didn’t follow suit.) GoPhilsGoBirds was correct.

This week’s question: Paul Molitor was the MVP of the 1993 World Series thanks in part to his 12 hits in the series. Which of his teammates matched those 12 hits?

Additional thought about the series

Saturday’s scheduled starters are Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer, and I remember back in 2018 when they had an terrific pitching duel. Somehow, I don’t think they’ll be repeating that this season.

On Sunday, Shane Bieber is scheduled to start for the Jays, and I was shocked to learn that he’s only 31 years of age. It seems like he’s been around forever, even though due to injuries he hasn’t actually been around all that much. This is his third straight season shortened by injuries, and he hasn’t pitched very well since making his season debut in late June. (Although he is coming off a solid start).

As for the Phillies, the addition of Luis Arraez seems to have energized the offense. But until (if?) Kyle Schwarber can break out of his current malaise; the offense isn’t going to be all that good. The Phillies always seem to have at least a couple of players not doing much at the bottom of the lineup, so they simply can’t afford to have one of their stars mired in a massive slump.

Barring the kind of historic run the Red Sox are in the midst of, there will be no October baseball for the 2026 Mets -- a team that never found its way before dismantling about one-third of the roster ahead of the trade deadline.

But despite the fact that the Mets are essentially playing out the string, there are still important things to watch down the stretch.

And with New York planning to retool this coming offseason with an eye on being a playoff contender in 2027, there are five specific players whose performances over the final 46 games could have a big impact on how next season's roster is assembled.

Yes, the continued acclimation to the majors for outfielders Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing will be big over the next two months, as will the development of Nolan McLean and Christian Scott.

But their roles for next season are pretty much cemented.

The same can't be said for these five players, whose successes or failures could help shape how David Stearns and the club's front office operate this winter... 

Marcus Semien

Semien will probably always be a polarizing name for Mets fans because he was acquired in the Brandon Nimmo trade. But looking at Semien as a Nimmo replacement never made sense -- he was simply the means through which the Mets extricated themselves from the final two years of Nimmo's contract.

And while Nimmo is still a productive offensive player (127 OPS+ ahead of play on Friday), his power is down, with him pacing for 17 homers in 154 games this season. More notable is that Nimmo's outfield defense has continued to decline, with him in the 23rd percentile this season in OAA, via Baseball Savant (he was in the 41st percentile in 2025 and the 66th percentile in 2024).

Add to the equation that there would be no room for Nimmo in an outfield with Juan Soto, Benge, and Ewing, and I think it's fair to say we've reached the point where relitigating the Semien-Nimmo trade is pointless. 

In any event, Semien remains on the Mets, and he has two years left on his deal at $24 million annually for luxury tax purposes. That means that despite how Semien performs for the remainder of the season, he will almost certainly be a Met on Opening Day in 2027. But what will his role be?

Semien, who posted a 93 OPS+ last season after being a tick above average (103 OPS+) in 2024, will likely never again be the player he was between 2019 and 2023, when he had an .820 OPS. But it's fair to wonder if the hip injury he played through earlier this season had a serious impact on him.

The early returns since he came back from the IL suggest it did, with Semien putting up a .745 OPS with four homers in 17 games since being activated, and him playing much smoother defense at second base.

If Semien can simply be a league average hitter, and he shows his poor defense was due in large part to the hip injury, he could fit firmly in New York's plans for next season.

Jorge Polanco

It would be an understatement to say it has been a rough go for Polanco in his first season in New York.

Signed in part to play first base (though it always felt like he would be mainly a DH), Polanco has been limited to 30 games due to an Achilles issue and has been relegated to strictly DH duties for now due to his physical issues.

In those 30 games, Polanco has hit just .144/.202/.243 with two home runs, mustering a .445 OPS.

And if you're looking for a silver lining in Polanco's advanced stats, you won't find it.

Polanco has been trying to swing out of his struggles, recently taking 300 swings before Wednesday's game -- where he had a homer and double.

It remains possible that Polanco gets healthy and produces at a level that warrants his inclusion as a regular player on the Mets in 2027.

If not, parting ways with him this offseason or at some point during the 2027 campaign wouldn't be terribly complicated, since next season is his final year under contract -- though the $20 million luxury tax number is hefty.

Kodai Senga

Following the trades of Luke Weaver (who was under contract through 2027) and Huascar Brazoban (who was under team control through 2029), the Mets are going to have to basically rebuild their bullpen from scratch.

Devin Williams will be a part of it next season, but it's mostly question marks beyond that.

Senga, in two appearances since being asked to transition to a high-leverage relief role, is showing that he could potentially be one of the answers.

Interim manager Andy Green said that Senga's stuff -- specifically his high-octane four-seam fastball and devastating ghost fork -- should play up in relief. And that's what has happened in the small sample size we have to go by.

On Thursday against the Guardians in Cleveland, Senga fired a 1-2-3 inning while throwing primarily four-seamers and forkballs -- with his fastball topping out at 100 mph.

That came after a promising performance in Tuesday's series-opener where Senga worked around a walk in an otherwise spotless ninth inning. 

Nate Lavender

Also a possible part of a remade Mets bullpen in 2027, the early returns for Lavender have been good.

The left-hander has tossed 2.1 hitless innings over two games, allowing one walk and striking out three.

Along the way, Lavender has generated plenty of uncomfortable swings from opposing hitters, which is something he did throughout his career in the minors.

In parts of five minor league seasons, the 26-year-old had a 2.78 ERA while fanning 244 batters in 158.2 innings -- a strikeout rate of 13.6 per nine.

Dedniel Núñez

The Mets already know what they have in Núñez, who was one of the team's best relievers in 2024 (2.31 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 35.0 innings) before getting hurt.

Núñez's 2025 season was then wiped out by Tommy John surgery after just 10 games, with him recently returning.

If Núñez can stay healthy and maintain his fastball velocity, his four-seamer/slider combo could be a key part of New York's bullpen going forward.

On Wednesday against the Guardians in his first big league outing since returning, Núñez's four-seamer (which averaged 96.3 mph in 2024) averaged 97.0 mph and topped out at 98.4.

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Drew Rasmussen might be the hottest pitcher in baseball right now - it’s a no-brainer to ride with him in our Rays vs. Mariners prediction.

The Tampa Bay Rays walk into T-Mobile Park as +105 underdogs at Polymarket despite running away with the AL East and having 12 more wins on the season over the Seattle Mariners. Let’s take advantage, shall we?

Let’s get right into my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7, and build that bankroll for the weekend.

Who will win Rays vs Mariners today: Tampa Bay Rays (+105)

Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays has been incredible this year, sporting a career-low 4.3% walk rate and 3.14 xERA across 117 innings pitched. Truly outstanding stuff.

We’re catching him during the best stint of his campaign tonight, too, having thrown 13 frames of shutout baseball across his last two starts.

It only gets better against the Seattle Mariners, punching them out at a 26% clip across 46 plate appearances.

It helps that the sticks are just as successful against Logan Gilbert on the other side, with Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero a combined 6-for-19 with an xBA of over .300 against the Mariners ace in their career.

No matter which angle you look at in this game, it’s all screaming Rays (they’re 4-0 in their last four games against a righty), which I’d price closer to -105. Let’s take advantage of this value and run with it.

Looking for more plays for today? Our Colby Marchio drops his MLB moneyline picks for the entire slate tonight.

COVERS INTEL: Can Logan Gilbert handle the Rays? Not only do Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have his number, but afer 59 plate appearances against the right-hander, Tampa Bay owns a .270 xBA and .430 xSLG. That should be enough to get us the W.

Rays vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 runs (+109)

One of the biggest reasons I love the Rays in this spot is because of Mr. Rasmussen, so it’s no surprise we’re rocking with the plus-money Under in this situation.

Looking at the MLB trends, the Under is 8-1 in the Rays’ last nine road games against a team with a winning record - that’ll play tonight.

Gilbert is no slouch, either, owning a career-low 5.4% walk rate himself, meaning both teams are going to have to earn their runs at T-Mobile Park - the most pitcher-friendly diamond in baseball.

I’m all over this Under at a full unit, and I’d play it up to +100.

Rays vs Mariners weather

It's a perfect night for baseball in Seattle, with temperatures sitting at a balmy 25 degrees farenheit around first pitch.

Rays vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Rays (+105) | Mariners (-116)
• Run line: Rays -1.5 (+180) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-126) | Under 6.5 (+109)

Rays vs Mariners trend

The Rays have simply risen to the occasion this year against good pitching, going 4-0 in their last four games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners.

How to watch Rays vs Mariners and game info

Rays vs Mariners latest injuries

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Buster Posey didn’t mince words during his interview with KNBR on Thursday.

Three weeks ago, a KNBR producer unknowingly shared his honest feelings about the Giants exec during a live segment of the morning show “Murph & Markus.”

“Posey sucks, man,” the unnamed producer said while testing out a microphone.

For the first time since the hot mic moment, Posey returned as a guest on the show and left no doubt that he had heard what the KNBR employee said.

“Make sure the mics aren’t hot before you talk trash about me,” Posey said as his parting words before leaving the studio.

Host Markus Boucher and guest host John Dickinson didn’t bat an eye, however. Boucher laughed it off and reassured Posey the hot mic incident wouldn’t happen again.

Posey has been the recipient of much criticism over the course of the Giants’ 2026 season because of his handling of the team as well as the media. San Francisco has struggled significantly under first-year manager Tony Vitello and was active at the trade deadline because of its disastrous performance.

“Yeah, we’ll make sure the behind-the-scenes boys don’t press any hot mics. Appreciate you. Love you, Buster. Thank you, man. Buster Posey with the mic drop. Yeah, his mic was hot for that one,” Boucher said.

But beyond the team’s spiral, Posey has looked inadequate or ill-prepared in front of the media, especially following the Giants’ LGBTQ Pride Night controversy when he had no answers for reporters.

This week, however, Posey seemed primed to respond, and he did just that on Thursday to conclude his KNBR interview.  

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The New York Yankees are -131 favorites at home against the Atlanta Braves tonight, and my Braves vs. Yankees predictions are laying the juice.

This is a strong storyline game, with Max Fried making his first career start against the organization he came up with, and Tyler Mahle making his Braves debut after being acquired from San Francisco. The betting angle starts with the matchup: Fried’s contact control against a scorching Atlanta lineup.

Here are my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.

Who will win Braves vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-131)

I’m backing the New York Yankees moneyline for two units down to -145. There’s some anecdotal appeal in Max Fried facing his former team for the first time, but the matchup is the real reason.

Fried has allowed only three barrels on 197 batted balls this season, with a .254 xSLG and 2.39 xERA. That profile plays well against an Atlanta Braves lineup that ranks fourth in barrel rate but is closer to average when forced to string hits together.

Tyler Mahle is not a disaster (despite what his ERA says), but his 4.07 xERA and 9.2% walk rate are easy pressure points for the Bronx Bombers.

COVERS INTEL:Fried’s barrel rate has dropped from 6.9% last season to 1.5% this year, the biggest reason his xERA sits more than seven-tenths of a run below his actual ERA.

Braves vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-126)

I’m playing the Under because Fried gives this game a strong run-prevention base. His 49% ground-ball rate and .241 xwOBA allowed are elite indicators against a Braves lineup that is reliant on fly balls.

The Yankees’ offense also been ugly recently. They were held to one run Wednesday, going 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Mahle is exploitable, but he's still a more-than-capable arm to slow down a stagnant offense.

You'll also get a well-focused pitcher hoping to make a strong impression with his new team.

Playable to 8 at +100.

Braves vs Yankees weather

Weather could matter more for timing than run environment tonight. It is hot at Yankee Stadium, with temperatures expected to sit in the low-to-mid 80s around first pitch, and there is thunderstorm risk in the early evening.

Braves vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Braves +119 | Yankees -131
• Run line: Braves +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Braves vs Yankees trend

The Yankees have covered the F5 run line in seven of their last nine games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Yankees.

How to watch Braves vs Yankees and game info

Braves vs Yankees latest injuries

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As you know, the Cubs pitching staff has been decimated by injuries this year. It’s one of the reasons Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer went and traded for Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Ryan Zeferjahn — to address perceived weaknesses in both the starting rotation and bullpen.

Before I delve into the question posed in the headline, let me give major props to Cubs manager Craig Counsell for his handling of the rotation and pen. To have this team at 67-49 with all those injuries? Excellent work by Counsell, and I’m going to say it right now: If the Cubs win the NL Central, he’ll be NL Manager of the Year. Or maybe even if they fall just short of a division title.

Now let’s look at the Cubs pitching staff.

As the team enters Friday’s game against the Royals, here are the 13 pitchers on the MLB active roster (in alphabetical order):

Starters (5): Javier Assad, Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman, Shōta Imanaga, David Peterson

Relievers (8): Aaron Civale, Braxton Garrett, Colin Rea, Ryan Rolison, Caleb Thielbar, Trent Thornton, Jacob Webb, Ryan Zeferjahn

First order of business: You’ll note the starter list does include Gausman, who was added to the active roster on Wednesday. He’ll start tonight in Kansas City. It does not include Holmes, who will be added either today or tomorrow and will start Saturday’s game. Holmes is currently on the 60-day IL, so a 40-man roster move will be needed.

So who goes when Holmes is added? The Cubs have already stated that Assad will move to the bullpen (and not be demoted, at least for now).

I’d think it’d be Civale. He could likely be DFA and return on a minor-league deal. (This sort of thing appears to be the new market efficiency; the Braves did it with Carlos Carrasco six times this year before finally releasing him last month.)

Here are the rest of the Cubs pitchers who are on the IL (60-day IL as noted, also in alphabetical order):

Ben Brown (60-day)
Edward Cabrera
Hunter Harvey (60-day)
Porter Hodge (60-day)
Gavin Hollowell
Cade Horton (60-day)
Riley Martin (60-day)
Phil Maton
Shelby Miller (60-day)
Hoby Milner
Daniel Palencia
Ethan Roberts
Justin Steele (60-day)

That’s 12 pitchers, just one man short of a full staff, and you could almost make a full rotation and bullpen out of that list.

Anyway.

Of those 12, Hodge and Horton will not pitch this year. That leaves 10.

Of the other five on the 60-day — Brown, Harvey, Martin, Miller and Steele — Brown seems the most likely to pitch again. He was placed on the 60-day mainly as a procedural move. And presuming he does return, he’ll likely be working in relief — an “out-getter,” as Counsell likes to call his pitchers.

Cabrera, Milner and Palencia are currently on rehab assignments and of the three, Milner seems closest to returning. When he does, as I see it the Cubs have two possible moves: Either option Garrett to Triple-A, or DFA Thielbar. My guess is that Thielbar gets more rope and Garrett, who is a possible 2027 rotation candidate, gets optioned.

For Palencia and Cabrera, now we’re getting into speculation. It’s possible the Cubs option Assad at that point to keep him stretched out to start. But who else from that list of eight would go? Cabrera’s likely not going to start, unless the Cubs go to a six-man rotation, which they could, or they move Holmes to the pen, another possibility as he was a good closer for the Yankees for three years. I’m still not seeing any obvious candidate from the current eight.

Beyond that, I suspect Hollowell and Maton remain on the IL the rest of the year, though Hollowell could be activated and optioned. I don’t think we see Maton throw another pitch for the Cubs in 2026.

Roberts was spotted at Wrigley Field this week, but he’s returning to Iowa, from what I have heard, and is likely going to be optioned once he’s done with his rehab assignment.

Harvey has been reported as getting ramped up to return, but I don’t really see him being a contributor to the Cubs this year. Same for Steele, even though it would be a great story to have him back. I haven’t heard a thing about Martin, who was a great story earlier this year; he might also be done for 2026. Miller has been rumored to possibly be ready to return, but — where would they put him?

Again, these are good problems to have. You can never have too much good pitching.

How do you see things shaking out for the Cubs pitching staff the rest of the way?

Hitters who step into the box against Andrés Muñoz in the late innings have a good idea of what they’re going to see: a triple-digit heater or his wicked biting slider. But since last season, Muñoz has been integrating a tiny new wrinkle in his arsenal: the changeup that he developed prior to spring training last year.

Last spring, all the talk was about Muñoz’s hot sexy new “kick change”, even as he acknowledged the pitch was still in developmental form. Despite the spring buzz, Muñoz threw the pitch only sparingly last year (~2% of the time). This season, he’s still throwing the pitch infrequently, but he’s doubled his usage of it from 2025, to about 5%, and he’s used it even more heavily at times, most notably in his recent outings against the lefty-heavy Twins and Tigers. Muñoz uses his changeup almost exclusively to lefties; of the 32 he’s thrown this season, he’s only thrown one to a righty. Ryan did a great writeup on Muñoz earlier this season, in which he noted that Muñoz had been struggling to get his heater past lefties; it looks like Muñoz started to dip into the changeup more heavily as a weapon to deal with lefties.

Mariners fans have been quick to point out the similarities between Muñoz’s changeup and the other most famous changeup in Seattle’s history, that of Mariners legend and king of the cambio, Félix Hernández. Like Félix’s changeup, Muñoz’s features similar heavy drop, between 5-7”, and comes in around 92 mph, about half a tick faster than it averaged last season, when he was still throwing it as a “kick” change, something he said he doesn’t always do now that he’s throwing the pitch more, as the grip is uncomfortable. Traditional pitching wisdom holds that a changeup is effective when there’s a large velocity differential between that and a pitcher’s fastball, but as our own Jake wrote about Félix’s changeup back in 2019, even when Félix’s fastball velocity started to decline, the changeup remained effective because it featured such a different movement profile than his fastball.

Declining velocity isn’t a concern for Muñoz, but the changeup does play off his other pitches well. While Muñoz is a traditional fastball-up slider-down reliever, the slider cuts gloveside, biting in on lefties and away from righties. The changeup tails armside, giving Muñoz a whiff-getting weapon against lefties – if he can tempt them to swing.

That’s the big if; of those 32 changeups Muñoz has thrown this season, 22 have been balls, and one a called strike (fun fact: the one called strike was also the one changeup thrown to a righty, and it was Jose Altuve). But when hitters swing, they don’t make contact – the pitch currently has a 100% whiff rate. Sometimes the changeup comes in just fully noncompetitive, too far outside to tempt even the most swing-happy of fellas.

But the changeup is more than just a pitch Muñoz hopes to throw for strikes or as a weapon against lefties. It’s a pitch he can use to give hitters a different look as opposed to just the fastball/sinker and slider. And it’s a pitch he can go to when he’s being taxed in an inning or having to throw multiple innings. In his two outings during the Giants series, he threw no changeups, mostly because he didn’t need to, both times blowing through his assigned slate of hitters on just nine pitches each time. But in a multi-inning outing against the Twins where he needed 24 pitches, he threw the changeup six times, or about 25% total.

But what Muñoz says he really values about the changeup – and why he’s not as concerned about throwing it for swinging strikes, even if that’s a nice bonus – is how it can help him reset his mechanics. Muñoz has a famously wonky delivery, falling hard off the mound to the first base side on his finish: something that’s not as noticeable when he’s getting whiffs on his heater and slider, but is a tough look when he’s walking hitters, which he’s always done at an above-average clip. But for all the sturm und drang about Muñoz’s season this year, he’s actually right in line with his career walk rate while striking out a career-high: almost 37% of hitters facing Muñoz are punching out. Muñoz credits his changeup for helping him get back in line when he’s struggling with his command.

“I used to use that pitch to reset when I have some issues with command,” said Muñoz, who has thrown a changeup since 2019, but only rarely at the big-league level until recently. “Like if I’m not able to control, I throw a changeup, and that’s my reset, like, okay, I can go back to the fastball, I can go back to the slider. It just helps me get back in line.”

“Even in the throwing program, when I throw and I feel like something is off, I throw a changeup and I throw the next fastball and it’s good. So that’s why I say that’s like a reset for me.“

But Muñoz doesn’t discount the power of the changeup when he can land it close to the zone – hence that 100% whiff rate when hitters do choose to swing.

“If it looks like it’s in the zone, they’re going to swing at it, especially with two strikes.”

For now, Muñoz is happy to use the changeup primarily as a way to check in with his body when he feels like he’s getting out of his mechanics. It’s still a distant third offering behind his heater/sinker and slider. But whether it develops into a true swing-and-miss weapon or just settles in as a way for Muñoz to check in with himself, it’s a useful tool in Muñoz’s arsenal. Sometimes change is good.

Your 2026 former New York Mets: Oh, that was the problem, before the deadline the Mets had ’winning’ way lower on their priority list. Glad, the Mets brass caught that so they can begin their 2015-esque run.

“My first priority [said that day] is winning.”” -Bo Bichette [New York Mets]

Full disclosure, I’ve been on vacation the past two week with (thankfully) spotting internet, so I’m literally catching up on who was traded and who remains as I blog…

“Any time you find yourself in a situation like this, it’s not the most fun thing. You see people leave that you have good relationships with. It means that you’re not in a great place in the standings. But for us, we still have to show up and try to win every day, continue to be professionals. That’s what we’re looking forward to doing.” -Bo Bichette [New York Mets]

…so with h/t to David Roth of Defector,Let’s Remember Some Guys!

First, do you guys remember Bo Bichette? I remember him as well as his father Dante Bichette, who had a four-year run where he drove in 514 declines Rib Eye Steaks that paired with a somewhat edible four-year cumulative 0.6 fWAR. Which is just a wonderfully perfect mid-90s stat line that Dante was able to parlay into a three-year, $21 million extension for his age 35, 36, and 37 year old seasons. The contract ended up being a steal…/checks Baseball-Reference/…oh, wait, it went immediately south and the Rockies bailed one season into the three-year deal.

“I think [Bichette’s] in a good spot — as good as you can be. His intent coming here was competing for a World Series, and I think that is heavy on a lot of guys where we find ourselves at this moment. At the same time, carrying that heavy burden doesn’t make you perform well. Going out and believing you’re one of the best players on the planet and swinging the bat like it does.” -Mets Manager Tom Andy Green [Mets]

Anyways, absolutely not apropos of Remembering Some Bad Contracts to players with surnames of Bichette, Bo Bichette knows he’s having a down year and doesn’t feel great about it. But I bet he was Remembering Some Contracts and can console himself knowing his contract has $84 million guaranteed after this season and he will still have leverage to opt out if somehow that’s will be lead to being paid more than $42 million.

In other words, we’re going to start getting lots of quotes about how much he loves NY because he’s not opting out and no team will trade for him unless Cohen/Stearns eat at least the worth of 514 Rib Eye Steaks of his contracts.

“The way I look at it is, I think there’s no doubt this team is going to be better next year. I really believe that. There’s still a lot of talent in this room, a lot of young talent that’s really hungry, combined with guys that have been around who have done a lot of great things in this game. And then on top of that, typically when you have a season like this, people show up a little bit more motivated. So I think that this group is going to be well prepared to be better next year.” -Bo Bichette [Mets]

Honestly, I don’t really Remember Andy Green as A Guy and it might be tough for him to earn a spot as in Let’s Remember Some Former Mets Managers but he’s trying to hit the ground running because his use of MBA Buzzwords during post-game interviews might be making David Stearns roll his eyes.

I had to read additional context prior to the quote to realize Andy Green was talking about Jorge Polanco (another Guy I might not Remember) breaking out of a slump and not that the Mets might be paying his salary via some kind of equity in lieu of cash agreement.

“Sometimes, the sweat equity gets you rolling again.” -Andy Green [Mets]

I know the season is lost, but it’s nice the Mets are brought in former rival Placido Polanco to have the Farewell Tour he always wanted while giving Mets fans a chance to Remember him.

“It feels great to come through after putting a lot of work in.” -Jorge Polanco [Mets]

I’m going to level with you, while I think I’m pretty good at Remembering Some Guys, specifically former Mets from the mid-90s through today [Eric Valent, Desi Reliford, Bartolomé Fortunato]; I’m no David Roth.

Because while I’m confident David Roth will be able to Remember Jefry Yan in the future; I’m going to need Jefry Yan to do something so good or so bad in order for him to earn a spot in my brain where Guys like Dae-sung Koon have permanent residence.

“Once I had him at two strikes, I said, ‘You know what? I’m going to throw that slider,’ and if I freeze him, which is exactly what I did, I’m going to celebrate accordingly.” -Jefry Marte Yan [Mets]

“Honestly, I don’t think about [the Cleveland booing him or something, I did not see the game TBH]. They can do whatever they want there. They’re paying their tickets, so if they want to yell at me, they want to boo me, they can do whatever they want. I’m in my zone, and I’m going to enjoy my game any way that I want to.” – Jefry Yan Gomes [Mets]

The Mets should have Remembered Some Guys with real stuff instead of the fake stuff they went with in the first half.

“It’s real stuff. The fastball is alive.” – Shawn Andy Green [Mets]

Of course I Remember Kodai Senga. I also remember convincing myself his injury plagued 2024 was a blessing in disguise because /putting on my David Stearns-Andy Green MBA fedora/ it meant Senga could not opt out and the Mets were going to get SOOO much Surplus Value.

“Whatever role is given to me, I’m going to throw in that role — regardless of what I say,” Senga said through an interpreter. “If I say I want to be a starter, the team could tell me, ‘Just look at your stats.’ And I don’t have anything to say back to them.” -Kodai Senga [Mets]

I’m not in the ‘giving up’ on David Stearns camp yet,but when I Remember Some Front Office Guys, I remember how excited I was when Sandy Alderson was hired. To be fair to Alderson, he was dealt a bad hand with a barren farm, bad contracts and *cough /The Wilpons/*. With that said, and to put it very lightly, the second Sandy Alderson run included some notable missteps.

I know these Mets are not going to go on a run, but I’m going to continue to watch as is my wont, so Godspeed Jared Young or ChaseChac Chaise ChayseChayce McDermott, you have a chance to do something that can earn you a coveted spot in Mets Sickos Fans’ Remember Some Guys rolodex.

“First and foremost, we added a tremendous amount of talent all throughout our system. Different shapes and sizes, different positional groupings, arms and bats, really good defenders. So overall, we believe that we’ve added to our system. We added players that will help us in New York and overall strengthen the quality of our farm system.” -David Stearns [Mets]

On this day 16 years ago,

the Blue Jays defeated the Rays 17-7.

Toronto hit eight home runs: Aaron Hill hit two, while Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and Lyle Overbay each added one.

And, of course, J.P. Arencibia—playing in his first MLB game—hit two home runs and went 4-for-5 with a double.

At that moment, the future looked bright.

From the recap:

What a way to begin a major league career: he homered on the first pitch he saw, doubled in his second at-bat, singled in his third, and hit another home run in his fourth. He finished with 11 total bases, 3 runs, and 3 RBI. It seemed impossible not to pencil J.P. Arencibia into the lineup every day after such a debut, though I was sure Cito would find a way not to.

J.P. started just 9 of the remaining 52 games, hitting .143/.189/.343 in 37 plate appearances that season and going hitless in 15 September at-bats. I can’t help but wonder how different his career might have been if Cito had shown more faith and played him regularly from the start. When young players only get sporadic opportunities, they sometimes feel pressure to be great every time out—a tough way to begin a career.

Also, from the recap:

Arencibia became just the third Blue Jay to homer in his first career game, joining Alvis Woods and Junior Felix. During his postgame interview, he was covered in shaving cream, doused with two buckets of Gatorade, and then got another round of shaving cream. Please, Cito, play him tomorrow.

Cito didn’t play him the next day.

There are five Blue Jays who started their career with a home run:

• Al Woods (1977)

• Junior Félix (1989)

• J.P. (2010)

• Davis Schneider (August 4, 2023)

• Charles McAdoo (June 1, 2026)

Jordan Bastian tweeted that, since 1900, no other player had 4 hits and 2 home runs in his MLB debut.

As we know, J.P.’s career didn’t unfold as hoped. He struggled with breaking balls and never mastered the strike zone, finishing with 85 walks and 484 strikeouts.

He spent four seasons with Toronto, hitting .212/.258/.408 with 64 home runs over 380 games.

After the Jays, he played 62 games for the Rangers in 2014 (primarily at first base) and 24 games for the Rays in 2015.

His defense was always a work in progress. He had a decent arm, throwing out 27% of base stealers, but also allowed his share of passed balls and wild pitches. If he had hit better, his defense would have been more forgivable. Off the field, he was great with fans—I once saw him in Calgary, playing with children and clearly enjoying himself.

Other performances of note:

Travis Snider led off and was 2 for 2 with 2 walks.

Yunel Escobar went 3 for 6.

Bautista hit his 34th home run, leading the A.L.

Edwin Encarnacion went 3 for 5 and made his 10th error of the season.

On the pitching side:

Brad Mills started and gave up 5 runs in 4 innings.

Brian Tallet pitched 3 innings of relief, got the win, and allowed 2 unearned runs.

Jason Frasor pitched a scoreless inning.

David Purcey started the 9th, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks, getting just 1 out.

Casey Janssen got the last 2 outs of the game, giving up a hit and a walk and allowing both of his inherited runs to score.

25 Years Ago

Chris Woodward belted three home runs against the Mariners. Amazingly, the Jays lost 5-4

Despite spending seven seasons and 362 games with the Jays—hitting just 26 home runs for Toronto—three of those came in this single game, which is remarkable.

In total, Woodward played 12 years in MLB and finished with 33 career home runs, so 9.1% of his career homers were hit in this one outing

The Mariners lineup at the time featured some greats:

• Ichiro Suzuki led off and collected two hits.
• John Olerud went 1-for-4.
• Edgar Martinez hit cleanup and notched two hits, including a home run and two RBI.

The Jays carried a 3-2 lead into the eighth inning, but reliever Scott Cassidy allowed a run in the eighth and then the go-ahead run in the ninth. I have no memory of Cassidy, though he pitched in 58 games that year—his rookie season—with a 5.73 ERA. A wild stat: in seven save opportunities, he blew all seven (in fairness, he wasn’t a closer, but Buck Martinez and Carlos Tosca—managers that season—used him as a setup man, and the team lacked reliable relievers or starters. It was basically Roy Halladay and pray for rain.

Luke Prokopec surrendered a walk-off home run to catcher Dan Wilson in the 10th, taking the loss. Prokopec finished the year with a 6.78 ERA in 22 games (12 starts).

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are in the midst of a six-game losing skid, but the visitors are still heavy -163 favorites tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has been brutal this season, which is why I’m backing LA to get back in the win column in my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Dodgers vs Diamondbacks today: Dodgers (-168)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be happy to see Merrill Kelly on the mound tonight. Kelly’s pitching run value, xERA (7.17), and xBA (.305) all rank in the bottom percentile among MLB pitchers this year.

The Arizona Diamondbacks starter throws his four-seamer more than 26% of the time – a pitch that the Dodgers have feasted on vs. righties. 

LA ranks fourth in MLB in average (.270), fifth in SLG (.465), and seventh in wRAA (30.2) against that pitch type.

We’re paying the Dodgers tax, but I’m still taking LA up to -170.

COVERS INTEL: Roki Sasaki relies heavily on his four-seamer as well, and the Diamondbacks are hitting just .173 vs. that pitch from righties over their last 13 games.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-126)

Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki hasn’t been great this season, but he’s turned it up over his last four outings with a stingy 2.25 ERA through that span.

And unlike the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks have struggled against the four-seamer from righties, which also happens to be Sasaki’s most common pitch (42.2%).

Arizona sits 27th in team average (.225) and SLG (.401) vs. that pitch type, suggesting their bats will be quiet tonight.

The Under has cashed in each of Sasaki’s last four starts, while the Under is 3-1-1 in Kelly’s last five outings.

I’d play the Under to -130 tonight.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather

Tonight’s forecast calls for mostly clear skies with light winds blowing out to right field in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -163 | Diamondbacks +156
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-104) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-100)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+117) | Under 9.5 (-122)

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend

Under is 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 starts following a team loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Dodgers vs Diamondbacks and game info

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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In the press conference immediately following the MLB Trade Deadline, Atlanta Braves President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos stated that outside of Tarik Skubal, there was only one other starting pitcher (who he refused to name at the time) who they viewed as an “impact starter” at this year’s trade deadline. There was a lot of speculation surrounding both the Braves and Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom and it appears that there may have been some legitimate activity going on there.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Braves and Rangers apparently had an agreement in place for a trade that apparently hinged on whether deGrom wanted to stay in Texas or waive his no-trade clause in order to go to Cobb County. Rosenthal is using two anonymous baseball executives as his source in the reporting. Here’s the relevant quote from his Trade Deadline aftermath story:

For deGrom, [Anthopoulos] was willing to take on a sizable portion of the pitcher’s remaining salary — about $11 million this season and $37 million next season.…Two executives said a trade almost certainly was in place. The execs, granted anonymity for their candor, pointed out that teams do not approach players about waiving no-trade clauses so close to the deadline unless something is done.

The Braves also were involved in discussions for right-hander José Soriano and other starters, according to a person briefed on their talks. But other than Skubal and deGrom, they did not view those pitchers as difference-makers, or even better than what they had.

The news about José Soriano is interesting and considering what we know about the Blue Jays and their organization’s relationship with Anthopoulos, there was maybe a bit of extra satisfaction on Toronto’s part that they were able to beat AA to the punch when it came to pulling off a deal with the Angels. As far as deGrom goes, that’s a very significant commitment to make in terms of salary so that really tells you just how much Atlanta’s front office wanted to add deGrom into the fold.

I recommend that you read the article if you’re subscribed, as Rosenthal also discusses what the Braves were willing to give up for Tarik Skubal (reader, unsurprisingly it was a lot). There’s a lot in there to think about and it’s to the point where if you were disappointed with the deadline (I’m right there with you), you at least understand what the approach was for Atlanta heading into this year’s intense trade deadline.

With that being said, it does at least appear sincere that the Braves figured that it would be “deGrom (or Soriano) or bust” and they ended up getting the latter as a result. We’ll see how this all ends up going as time passes. For now, the Braves have to be feeling at least a little confident that things may end up working out after the performances that their starters had earlier this week (and also after Casey Mize got blown up for eight earned runs against the Diamondbacks in his Padres debut) but time will tell when it comes to figuring out if AA was right to pass up on all other deals going forward. We’ll see what happens!

Welcome to the California Post’s weekly Dodgers recap, where we review the week that was, hand out very official awards and take stock of the state of the season.

PITCHER OF THE WEEK

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8-inning, 3-run start this week; 11-7 record, 2.76 ERA on season)

There haven’t been many heroic performances during the Dodgers’ six-game losing streak. But Yamamoto’s outing against the Red Sox last Saturday was an exception.

It wasn’t that he halted the Dodgers’ skid, instead taking the loss after giving up the decisive run in the eighth inning. Or that he was particularly dominant, striking out only three batters in a performance that actually saw his ERA slightly rise from 2.72 to 2.76.

But that Yamamoto was pitching at all –– much less effectively enough to complete eight innings –– was nonetheless a feat.

In the days leading up to the start, the already diminutive right-hander lost roughly eight pounds after getting sick at the end of the team’s previous road trip in New York. He spent the week slowly recovering, and had his rotation turn pushed back a day (after a bullpen game on Friday) to regain some extra strength.

It didn’t stop him from making his fourth eight-plus-inning start this year, which is tied with Sandy Alcantara for most in the majors. He also remains in the thick of the Cy Young race, ranking sixth in the NL in ERA, fifth in innings pitched and second in WHIP.

This week, Yamamoto stayed back in Los Angeles during the Chicago portion of the team’s road trip to keep recuperating. He rejoined them in Arizona ahead of his next scheduled start on Saturday.

DODGERS PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Shohei Ohtani (10-for-24, 3 home runs, 5 RBIs this week; .297 average, .954 OPS, 26 home runs, 70 RBIs this season)

How much Ohtani’s day off from the Dodgers’ lineup last Thursday helped his knee still isn’t clear.

But it certainly didn’t seem to hamper his scorching hot swing.

Though the Dodgers’ two-way star has still not resumed a throwing program amid his ongoing knee injury, now more than a month removed from his last pitching start, Ohtani is in the midst of perhaps his most productive stretch at the plate all season.

Entering Friday, he had hits in nine straight games, five of which were multi-hit efforts. He had four home runs in his last eight, including his first multi-homer performance of the year on Wednesday. And, after the questions that were raised last week when lingering knee soreness forced him to miss a game, he offered a reminder that –– as a hitter, at least –– his injury still isn’t having a notable impact; ensuring his most valuable tool, his bat, isn’t being diminished.

Where things stand with Ohtani’s arm, of course, is less clear.

He did not resume catch play in Chicago this week, though manager Dave Roberts continues to insist that will happen “soon.”

The urgency to get him built all the way back up (at least, as fast as possible with two months still left before the playoffs) isn’t as pressing as it once was, either, thanks to the arrival of Tarik Skubal.

The Dodgers still expect to get something out of him on the mound again this year. But for now, while Ohtani’s two-way status grows more uncertain, there aren’t any worries about his hitting. That remains the most important thing.

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

How worried should Dodgers be about the standings?

So much for the two-time defending champions having no meaningful baseball left to play this season.

Their recent losing streak might not be jeopardizing their playoff chances (Fangraphs still gives them a, *checks notes*, 100% probability of reaching October) or endangering their division lead (they enter this weekend’s series in Arizona 8 ½ games clear of the second-place Diamondbacks), but it has created unexpected competition for a pivotal playoff seeding.

While the Dodgers have dropped six in a row, the Atlanta Braves have won eight-straight, helping them leapfrog the Dodgers for the No. 2 seed in the National League. The Dodgers are also now three games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL’s best record and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Securing a first-round bye and home-field advantage will undoubtedly be goals for the Dodgers over the rest of the season.

But, even amid the more condensed standings now, there is still probably a limit to how urgently they will push for them.

Last year, after all, the Dodgers defended their title even as the NL’s No. 3 seed, which required them to play a best-of-three wild card round and open all three of their subsequent series on the road. 

And while they’d like an easier playoff path this October, they’re also unlikely to start pushing their aging roster any extra, or riding their banged-up pitching staff any harder, for the sake of seeding alone. 

Instead, they’ll trust that if they simply play better down the stretch, the rest will take care of itself.

DODGERS PROSPECT OF THE WEEK

Josue De Paula (9-for-22, 5 home runs this week; .314 average, .972 OPS, 21 home runs, 82 RBIs this year)

The Dodgers’ top-ranked prospect was never going anywhere in the Skubal sweepstakes. This week, the 21-year-old slugger offered a resounding reminder why.

As deadline rumors swirled, De Paula mashed four home runs and collected nine RBIs in a torrid four-game stretch, setting a new high point in a season that has seen him unlock much more of his tantalizing potential at the plate.

Now, the question is how soon he could be promoted to triple-A.

The Dodgers did clear a pathway in the outfield with their Oklahoma City affiliate, after trading Jack Suwinski to Tampa Bay at the deadline for Hunter Feduccia. The expectation has been that either De Paula or Mike Sirota (the team’s next-best outfield prospect, who has also been tearing it up with double-A Tulsa) will thus take another step up the minor-league ladder.

For now, neither have gotten the call. Still, many more weeks like this, and De Paula won’t be stuck in double-A for much longer.

FUTURE DODGER OF THE WEEK

Usually, we dedicate this section to identifying a player the Dodgers could potentially acquire in the future (sometimes far-fetched, other times not).

But this week, we decided we’d review the past, and see how many of our predictions so far this season came true at the deadline.

Skubal, of course, has been a common name in this section. We picked him early in the season as an obvious deadline candidate, and again after his May elbow procedure as a potential offseason signing. We then went back to the well again in last week’s weekly recap, as it became clear the Dodgers would make a real effort to get him.

In late June, we also highlighted Ben Rortvedt’s name as a possible target, as the team’s need at catcher became impossible to ignore.

As for the dozen or so other players featured in this space this year (from Mason Miller to Jacob Misiorowski to Nolan McLean to Munetaka Murakami)? Well, we’re either wrong –– or perhaps simply early. 

After all, as the Dodgers showed once again at this trade deadline, whenever there is a star player potentially available in some form or fashion, they’ll almost always be in the hunt for them; no matter how far-fetched it once might have seemed.

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An exciting weekend of baseball is ahead, starting with a full slate of games this Friday, August 8.

Our MLB expert picks are here to help you get your weekend off to a winning start. See why the Orioles should be part of your MLB picks tonight.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Jon Metler: BAL ML	+127
Joe Osborne: CLE ML	-136

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Orioles moneyline

Price: 44¢ (+127) at Polymarket

The matchup for Shane Baz is the main reason I'm backing this bet, but the Texas Rangers also feel like a team in a strange spot after the trade deadline. Reports surfaced that Texas was shopping veterans Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi despite remaining in the American League playoff race, creating some uncertainty around the clubhouse.

On the field, Baz draws a favorable matchup. Three of the Rangers' top five left-handed hitters—Seager, Joc Pederson, and Evan Carter—do their best damage on pitches at the bottom of the zone. Baz attacks in the opposite manner, using a riding four-seam fastball at the top of the strike zone before tunneling his secondary pitches off it.

That pitch mix should help neutralize the Rangers' pull-side power. 

The Baltimore Orioles are trading as a 44-cent underdog, but I make them closer to a 48-cent underdog, which is why I'm hitting the button.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Apple TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Guardians moneyline

Price: 58¢ (-136) at Polymarket

The Chicago White Sox are in a brutal spot tonight after being swept in Boston and losing a 13-inning game yesterday. Chicago used seven relievers in the loss and now turns to Noah Schultz, who owns a 5.82 ERA and rarely pitches deep into games.

The White Sox are also just 1-7 across his last eight appearances.

Meanwhile, Parker Messick has allowed only one earned run in each of his three starts since the All-Star break. He owns a 2.20 road ERA and has held Chicago hitters to a .174 batting average in two starts against them this season.

Back the Cleveland Guardians to -150.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: CleGuardians.TV, CHSN

More MLB best bets for today

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