As the Mets start their second half of the season on Thursday night against the Philadelphia Phillies, they'll have veteran Marcus Semien back on the active roster.
The club announced that Semien has been activated off of the IL, with infielder Zack Short being designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Semien was placed on the 10-day IL on June 25 with a right hip flexor, an injury he had been playing through before it became too much to endure. Semien committed a pair of errors in the Mets' loss to the Cubs on June 24, signaling that something wasn't right.
It's been a disappointing first season in Queens for the veteran, who is slashing just .214/.271/.341 with nine home runs and 29 RBI in 80 games. He's also committed six errors, which was more than he had in all of 2025 (two errors in 127 games).
Short, another veteran, appeared in just six games for the Mets, hitting .071 in 16 plate appearances.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 14: Luis Arraez #1 of the San Francisco Giants poses for a photo during the 2026 All-Star Red Carpet Show presented by Mastercard at Independence Mall on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Maybe the San Francisco Giants aren’t contenders this season, but according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, a few members of this year’s roster could end up on playoff teams after the trade deadline.
Luis Arraez, Robbie Ray, and Jung Hoo Lee were all listed as the “Best Match” for various MLB contenders and aspiring contenders, though none of them reached the vaunted level of “Dream Match.” Look, the 2026 Giants will take what that can get.
This is not trade scuttlebutt or a prediction, but an exercise in matching teams with something to play for this fall with teams who might or should be available. The most obvious player is Arraez, who is on a one-year, $12M contract and is hitting .330, second in baseball, with surprisingly good defense at second base.
Passan thinks he’s a fit for the Tampa Bay Rays, a not-infrequent trade partner of the Giants who have Richie Palacios (.237/.333/.338, 0.4 WAR) and an unimpressive group of options at second base.
[Arraez] rarely strikes out, right in line with the Rays’ MLB-best 18.9% K rate. He’s got a .327 batting average, second in baseball. He gets on 36% of the time, perfect to slot in atop the lineup and offer Díaz, Aranda and Caminero more RBI opportunities. Best of all, Arráez has gone from liability at second base to above average, capable of filling a true spot of need for the Rays.
Arraez may be one of the team’s most (few?) watchable players, but they’d be only trading 66 games of Arraez. If they want him back, he’s a free agent after the season. The Giants tend to panic in these situations and work out an extension, like the expensive six-year, $150M deal Matt Chapman signed near the end of the 2024 season. As usual, the Rays have a very good farm system to make a deal.
Passan believes that the Philadelphia Phillies need outfield help and endorses Lee to fill that need, though he repeatedly qualifies that Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins would be preferable.
Lee’s low-strikeout, high-average approach is perhaps the best Philadelphia can do so long as Buxton isn’t going anywhere.
The argument for Lee is that the Phillies’ struggling outfield, even with the resurgent Brandon Marsh, isn’t good enough, especially with Adolis Garcia out for the season. Lee may have three years and $63M left on his deal after this season, but there aren’t a lot of free agent outfielders providing alternative options. Is that also an argument for the Giants to hold onto Lee? Yes.
Passan’s final “Best Match” is Robbie Ray with the St. Louis Cardinals, who are 50-45 and one game back of the final wild-card spot in the National League. It’s far from a full-throated endorsement of a Ray deal for the Cards.
As good as Ray has been lately, the Cardinals might instead opt for a less costly option who can gobble innings and help save the pen.
That’s it. The only place Ray is even mentioned is in the context of how there’s probably better options for the Cardinals. The veteran lefty has been quite good since May, going 5-0 with a 1.84 ERA, but he’s making $25M this season, which might scare teams away. Though if they trade him at the deadline, the new team will owe him only around $8M as the pro-rated portion of his salary.
That’s the Giants approaching the deadline. No Dream Matches, but two tempting veterans on the last year of their contracts who could be Best Matches. Plus Jung Hoo Lee, who is not Byron Buxton.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 14: Members of the American League team stand for the national anthem prior to the 96th MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
MLB All-Star Weekend is a mess. You know it, and I know it. The only people who seem to be unaware are those employed by MLB itself. It’s a mish-mash of activities all happening at the same time, just so we can have nothing happening on Wednesday and almost nothing happening on Thursday. MLB clearly wants All-Star Week to be something of a showstopping event where we make everyone stop and appreciate this great sport simultaneously. But the way they’ve structured it makes it feel like a crowded convention hall where you inexplicably can’t do everything you want to, no matter how hard you try. That simply doesn’t have to be the case.
And I’m here to tell you how.
Get the draft out of here
The MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft occurred over the weekend. This was happening at the same time as various regular-season games, some home run derby announcements, and The Futures Game. MLB has stated in the past that they want their amateur draft to have a similar weight to other professional North American sports such as the NFL, NBA, and NHL. But none of those leagues have their drafts during the regular season for a very good reason: it splits focus.
MLB has a problem, though: its draft is unlike the ones used by the NBA and NFL in that players who are drafted by MLB teams are not precluded from refusing to sign a deal and returning to college. This is not something that is controlled by MLB, but rather by the NCAA. And in this case, it increases the bargaining power of young baseball players, and so I am disinclined to see it change. Given that, MLB is best served by holding its draft as close to the end of the College baseball season as reasonable. College baseball ends with the College World Series in late June.
So, my proposal here is to give MLB teams the first Saturday after the College World Series the day off and hold the draft that day. You don’t have to have teams take the time off for the draft if you don’t want to. It’s so unappealing as a television prospect that NBC covered only the first ten picks and then moved to a celebrity golf tournament. MLB itself kicked out media members well before the draft was over, and you could hear them disassembling the set while the final rounds were still occurring. It’s obvious that the MLB draft is never going to have real mass appeal outside of the hardcore fans, but if you really want to try, a special day immediately following the hype of the College World Series and not interfering with the trade deadline is the way to do it.
If fitting the entire draft into one day seems unrealistic, then perhaps it could hold the first few rounds on Friday morning or Thursday night, while requiring all teams to play Thursday day games that day. The additional time in between draft periods would give people even more time to work themselves into a lather before seeing how the draft unfolds.
MLB used to have its draft around this time, but moved it later to try to strengthen the lineup of All-Star Week festivities. Weirdly, they didn’t make room for it – they just dropped it on things that were already happening. And it’s had the knock-on effect of making the trade deadline more difficult to navigate as teams focus all of their resources on evaluating the draft instead of potential trades. Moving it up a few weeks would give that period more room to breathe as well.
This, by the way, is the same logic that led to Thanksgiving being scheduled the way that it is. President Lincoln had declared it the last Thursday of the month, but Franklin Roosevelt moved it to the fourth Thursday of the month to increase the distance between Thanksgiving and Christmas so as to expand the shopping season. (There was some other political wrangling in there, which you can read here, but that’s the gist).
Give the Futures Game space to breathe
This year, the Futures Game was played on Sunday afternoon at the same time as regular-season MLB games and the second half of the Draft. While, for many, the draft is uninteresting because the players being selected are often years away from contributing to MLB rosters, the players who show up in the Futures Game are almost always far closer to being ready to join their big league clubs. Fans could be interested in it. I know I would be if it wasn’t happening at the same time as everything else. To that end, they have two options. Require all MLB games to be played on Sunday afternoon before the All-Star Break, followed by holding the Futures Game that night, or move the Futures Game to Wednesday evening – the only day during the entire summer without a single baseball event taking place.
I can see arguments for either of them, I think I’d lean more toward Wednesday. At least in the short term I think it would draw better ratings from the baseball lifers who always spend all day Wednesday complaining that there aren’t any games. Plus, you go from the hype of the current stars to the future ones. You could even have highly drafted prospects give interviews during the game to make fans who don’t pay attention to the draft more aware of them.
If it were me, I think I’d make it a free broadcast on MLB.TV and do profiles of players (even, or maybe especially, ones who didn’t quite make the cut of the game itself) instead of commercials between innings. MLB might be giving up some ad money that way, but they would be doing wonders for building fan sentiment. I think it would be more profitable in the long term.
Organize the Home Run Derby
I’m not going to use this space to criticize the Netflix broadcast, even though it had a lot to criticize. MLB doesn’t have full control over the broadcast. I don’t remember how bad it has been in previous years, but the announcements of participants leading up to the Derby itself were incredibly weird and disjointed. Junior Caminero was the only known participant for a week. There was no discernible rhyme or reason to either the order or the method of the announcements. Some guys literally just dropped the news on their personal Instagram stories.
That’s no way to build hype for an event! MLB needs to figure out its entire field, and they need to do it earlier. Then they need to work with the players on a strategy for announcing it. Which would ideally include a sizzle reel on MLB social media accounts in addition to whatever other outlets they or the players want to use. MLB should also ensure that each team’s next broadcast includes mention of the upcoming Derby and the announced participants so everyone can keep track, even if no one from their team is participating. You shouldn’t have to use social media to know who is going to participate.
The rules also need to stop shifting all the time. In a lot of ways, I really liked the format this year. Not having a timer allows viewers to better enjoy each home run (though it would help if the broadcast showed them all…). But whatever format they pick, they need to stick with it for more than a year or two at a time. You can’t build legacy, history, or hype when there’s no real way to compare events between years.
There are always complaints about guys getting snubbed and the derby itself taking too long, but I have a solution for both. Let’s have a qualifying round early in the afternoon. MLB can maybe have 10 guys trying to get into the actual derby, but only 6 make it through. Then the derby itself would only have to feature those 6, which would cut at least 30 minutes off the run time. I think the Qualifiers would give guys a chance to acclimate themselves to the event so perhaps we’d be able to go without the one or two absolute duds we seem to get every year.
They should also ensure that the team hosting the All-Star Game had at least one participant in the qualifiers because, honestly, the Phillies faithful having a rooting interest gave the event a bit more energy, and I’d like to see that continue. If MLB wanted to give that player a bye through the qualifiers, that would probably be OK. I think I’d be fine either way.
Finally, MLB should figure out how to incentivize the biggest stars to participate again. It’s kind of wild that we hold this event dedicated to the smashing of dingers, and most, if not all, of the best dinger smashers decide they’d rather not participate every year. It’s not the end of the world; it’s entirely possible we don’t get a cool story like Jordan Walker’s come-from-behind walk-off victory if Yordan Alvarez is participating, but it does seem like it would be in the best interest of the sport.
Anyway, I think if MLB made most or all of those changes, the All-Star Break would be vastly improved. I’d also probably go back to having a special All-Star Announcement show held when no games were being played, but it also wouldn’t be the end of the world if guys were just announced on their team broadcasts as long as we had a ticker running underneath with all the other selectees. Again, the key here is not forcing people to find out via social media.
Do you think these changes would enhance your experience? Would you make these, or would you do something different?
In recent weeks, the bullpen has become the Phillies’ biggest concern, a question mark that needs to be addressed if the team is going to get where it wants to go over the final 2½ months of the regular season and beyond.
The issue became more acute Thursday when the team returned from the All-Star break and placed reliever Brad Keller on the injured list with a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.
Keller will seek further evaluation but manager Don Mattingly said, “We expect him to be out for the year.”
If Keller needs surgery — which is usually the case with UCL tears — his recovery could extend deep into next season.
Keller, who turns 31 later this month, signed a two-year, $22 million contract with the Phils in the offseason. The team envisioned him as the right-handed bridge to All-Star closer Jhoan Duran with Jose Alvarado serving as the left-handed bridge. Alvarado (6.82 ERA) has struggled this season and now Keller, who pitched to a 4.02 ERA in 32 games, is out.
All this could make it imperative that Phillies baseball boss Dave Dombrowski add a quality late-game reliever before the August 3 trade deadline. Shopping for bullpen help has been an annual mid-summer errand for Dombrowski. Last year, he acquired Duran at the deadline.
While Duran has been stellar as the closer, the rest of the bullpen has been iffy — especially recently.
Since June 1, the Phillies’ bullpen ranks 25th in the majors with a 5.21 ERA. In July, it ranks 29th with an 8.05 ERA and it has walked 5.45 batters per nine, second-most in the majors over that span.
Keller first went on the IL with an elbow/forearm soreness in mid-June. He returned to pitch once last week in Cincinnati before feeling more soreness. An MRI Monday revealed the tear.
“It sucks,” the pitcher said. “It felt good in the rehab process. It felt good in Cincinnati, but the next day, I woke up and it was really sore and didn’t progress from there.
“With the position we’re in, I want to be there for the second half and fight with the boys. It’s tough to swallow.”
The Phillies entered play Thursday trailing first-place Atlanta by two games in the NL East. They were in control of the second NL wild-card spot.
When Keller first went down, Mattingly used right-hander Orion Kerkering more in late-game leverage situations. Over the last couple of weeks, Jonathan Bowlan has gotten more looks in late-game pressure situations. He has responded well.
On the last trip before the All-Star break, Bowlan pitched five times and had three holds over 4 1/3 scoreless innings. He struck out six in those five appearances and stranded four of the five runners he inherited. Bowlan features a fastball that can reach 100 mph, a slider and a changeup. The Phillies acquired the 29-year-old right-hander from Kansas City for Matt Strahm last winter. If he’s ready to put it together after bouncing between the majors and the minors the last three seasons, the Phillies will take it.
“His stuff works,” Mattingly said. “It’s a matter of making pitches and if you’re making pitches you’ll get outs.”
Predictably, Mattingly showed faith in his current group of relievers when asked if he believed the team needed outside bullpen help.
“I’m pretty comfortable the way this club is,” he said. “We’re always going to try to get better. Everybody is going to try to get better at the deadline if they can. But if you said this is our club the rest of the way and whoever is in the minor leagues is going to help us as we go forward, then we’re good enough to win.”
As far as potential help in the minors, Gage Wood and Alex McFarlane, both right-handers, are at Double A. Both throw hard and have breaking stuff, but strikes have been an issue. The Phillies will certainly monitor the progress of both while they rely on Kerkering, Bowlan and Alvarado to get the ball to Duran and Seth Johnson, Chase Shugart, Max Lazar and Tim Mayza to bridge the middle innings.
“We’ve seen Kerk be good,” Mattingly said. “During Keller’s absence, Bowlan stepped up. We need Alvy to be Alvy. And we’ll need the guys below to get big outs in the middle of the game. That’s kind of where we’ve struggled. Not so much at the end, but trying to get to those guys.”
The 2026 ESPY Awards provided the latest evidence of that, with the Dodgers two-way player winning two trophies, as determined by fan votes, at Wednesday night’s ceremony in New York.
But as surprising at it may be — especially to those of us in the Los Angeles area who have witnessed the Japanese baseball phenomenon during his nine years with our local MLB teams — not everyone on the planet is familiar with the four-time MVP and two-time World Series champion.
The ESPYs provided evidence of that as well. Boxers Mike Tyson and Jake Paul joined musician DJ Khaled to present the award for best single-game performance. Ohtani — nominated for his historic Game 4 of the 2025 National League championship series against the Milwaukee Brewers — was the winner, as announced by Tyson.
Paul told the crowd that Ohtani was unable to attend the event, but “he sends his gratitude and appreciation to ESPN and everyone who voted for him.”
Afterward, a hot mic picked up Tyson seeming to ask Paul a rather unexpected question:
“Shohei’s a guy?”
The question seemed to be genuine, and Paul gave a casual response to his friend and former boxing opponent. “Yeah, he’s a guy,” Paul appeared to say as the trio started leaving the stage.
The Times reached out to a Tyson representative for comment but did not receive an immediate response.
No shade toward Iron Mike for apparently not knowing much about Ohtani. Tyson is a legend in his sport and has a number of other ventures and interests that occupy his time. While he did throw out a ceremonial first pitch before a Brewers-Pittsburgh Pirates game in 2014, Tyson just might not be all that into baseball.
Also, the name Shohei isn’t at all common in the U.S., even amid Ohtani’s massive popularity. According to Parenting Patch, only nine American babies were given that name in each of the last two years. All of them were boys, but the odds are good that Tyson doesn’t know any of them.
If Tyson hasn’t been following Ohtani’s career, though, he’s missing out. Take the aforementioned Game 4 of last year’s NLCS as an example. Ohtani hit three home runs and pitched six-plus scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in a 5-1 victory over the Brewers that completed an NLCS sweep and sent the Dodgers to the World Series for the second straight year.
“That was probably the greatest postseason performance of all time,” manager Dave Roberts said after the game.
Ohtani was much more low-key in his postgame assessment.
“This time around, it was my turn to be able to perform,” he said through interpreter Will Ireton. “I think just looking back over the course of the entire postseason, I haven’t performed to the expectation.”
With his performance that night, Ohtani beat out fellow nominees Tyce Armstrong of Baylor baseball (three grand slams in a game), Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat (83 points in a game) and Hannah Hidalgo of Notre Dame basketball (16 steals in a game) for the award.
That epic game certainly contributed to Ohtani’s other ESPY of the night. He was named best MLB player over fellow nominees Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees, Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners and Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Turns out mid-market teams do have money to spend ahead of upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations.
Emerging ace Chase Burns and the Reds agreed to a seven-year, $105 million extension that is tied for the largest in team history, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed.
It’s the largest guarantee to a pitcher with less than four years of service time, per The Athletic, and does not contain any options or deferrals.
Chase Burns watching the Home Run Derby on Monday. Getty Images
Burns, 23, has blossomed into the front-end starter the Reds envisioned he would be when Cincinnati drafted him with the No. 2 pick in 2024 MLB Draft.
The righty is 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA across 18 starts, striking out 118 batters in 102 ⅔ innings to earn his first All-Star berth this season.
He is tied for the fifth-lowest ERA in the sport and is on track to receive Cy Young votes.
For Cincinnati, this deal now ensures they have an ace under contract through 2033 and buys out his initial years when he would be a free agent in exchange for paying him more now.
These types of deals have become more popular in recent years, with the players taking the higher pay earlier in their career and banking on the ability to cash in again as a free agent even with the delay.
Chase Burns is 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA. AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
Pitching deals can be trickier due to the injury risk that comes with the position, but the Reds are in a position where they have to take such relative gambles.
Great American Ball Park is hitter friendly and the Reds rarely win bidding wars for free agents, making it hard to secure top-level pitchers.
It’s interesting that this notable deal comes from a team that is not a heavy spender ahead of what is expected to be a contentious CBA negotiation that could result in a lockout.
Those calling for a salary cap can point to deals like this to show that the owners do indeed have the money to spend, they just often chose not to allocate it to the players.
Despite Burns’ brilliance, the Reds (43-52) enter the second half in last place in the NL Central and eight games out of a playoff spot.
As the second half of the 2026 MLB season begins, the Mets are in sell mode as they look to retool before attempting to bolster their roster this offseason in an attempt to quickly return to contention in 2027.
Who are the players most likely to move between now and the Aug. 3 deadline? And who should the Mets be careful about parting with?
Here are the players likely to be available, broken down one-by-one...
Freddy Peralta
Should Mets trade him? Yes Will Mets trade him? Yes
A pending free agent, Peralta could be the most established and highest-upside starting pitcher available at the deadline if the Tigers don't deal Tarik Skubal. Peralta's poor season to this point shouldn't be a hindrance when it comes to the Mets getting something of serious value back.
Brooks Raley
Should Mets trade him? Yes Will Mets trade him? Yes
A free agent at the end of the season, Raley has a 2.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this year and has been one of the most reliable relievers in baseball since 2022 -- with a 2.45 ERA (2.99 FIP) and 1.05 WHIP in 176.1 innings. He should net the Mets a nice package, especially in what is expected to be a sellers market.
A.J. Minter
Should Mets trade him? Yes Will Mets trade him? Yes
Like Peralta and Raley, Minter is set for free agency after the season. Unlike Raley, though, there is a big question about Minter due to the reduced velocity on his four-seam fastball since he returned from last season's lat surgery. But Minter has been excellent in limited action this season, posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.84 WHIP while walking just one batter in 19.0 innings.
New York Mets pitcher Luke Weaver (30) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the eighth inning at Citi Field. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Luke Weaver
Should Mets trade him? Only for a haul Will Mets trade him? 50/50
Weaver is under contract for the 2027 season, when he'll count for $11 million toward the luxury tax payroll. So the Mets should set a high price and only budge if it's met. Though Weaver has been phenomenal this season, relievers are volatile. It would be tough to part with Weaver, but if the price is right, the Mets should sell high.
Clay Holmes
Should Mets trade him? No Will Mets trade him? It's complicated
There is mutual interest in an extension that would keep Holmes with the Mets beyond this season. And when you consider Holmes' leadership, his ability to thrive in New York, and the Mets' need in the rotation, it makes all the sense in the world for them to get an extension with Holmes done. If they can't for some reason, it will be a no-brainer to trade him, with Holmes all but certain to decline the $12 million player option he holds for 2027.
Luis Robert Jr.
Should Mets trade him? Yes Will Mets trade him? It's complicated
Robert is on a rehab assignment as he works toward a return from a back injury that has kept him out since April 26. And he's owed roughly $10 million for the remainder of the year. But with the Mets set to decline his player option for next season and nowhere to play him upon his return, they should make every effort to deal him.
New York Mets designated hitter Francisco Alvarez (4) hits a solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Francisco Alvarez
Should Mets trade him? No Will Mets trade him? Unlikely
Alvarez is under contract through 2029, makes relatively little, is just 24 years old, possesses huge power, and has been an above average hitting catcher during his five-year career. If a team blows the Mets away with an offer, they should accept it. If not, there's no reason to seriously consider trading Alvarez.
Luis Torrens
Should Mets trade him? No Will Mets trade him? Unlikely
The Mets just extended Torrens through 2028, and he's one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. So dangling him right now makes little sense.
Francisco Lindor
Should Mets trade him? No Will Mets trade him? No
A relatively rough first 40 games for Lindor, whose season was interrupted for two months because of a calf injury, has apparently led to people forgetting that he was an MVP-level player for the Mets from 2022 to 2025. Beyond that, the Mets would be selling incredibly low if they dealt Lindor now. Depending on the return, they could also be creating a massive hole in their lineup ahead of an offseason where the free agent crop isn't very enticing. It is not impossible to see the Mets eventually dealing Lindor, but now is not the time to do it.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JULY 09: Paul Blackburn #58 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on July 09, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Paul Blackburn had posted a 5.28 ERA in 15.1 innings with the Yankees in 2025. The team, however, saw something in him, something that persuaded them to keep him around despite that ugly number. Then, 2026 came around. The right-hander alternated good and bad outings, but even at his worst, the Yankees were patient. And their patience is paying off big time now.
Blackburn is sporting an amazing 2.22 ERA in 48.2 frames with the Yanks this year, one of the most improved Yankees of the season. If we zoom in closer, we see that his run since the start of June has been unbelievable, with a 1.11 ERA and a 60.3 percent groundball rate. Basically, Blackburn went from being on the roster bubble at one point to one of the most indispensable relievers in the organization. He is now an excellent multi-inning weapon for manager Aaron Boone, and even though the bullpen remains an area of focus ahead of the deadline, having Blackburn pitching like this allows the club to focus on other, more pressing needs.
Blackburn can throw seven pitches, but four of them are key to his success: the sinker, the cutter, the changeup, and the curveball. It just seems that every one of those four serves a specific purpose: the sinker helps him get that GB% up (it is, after all, 56.4 percent for the year as a whole, up from 43.8 percent in 2025), the cutter throws hitters off balance and forces them into weak contact (87th percentile 32.1 hard-hit rate), and the curveball and the changeup help him miss bats.
The curveball has a beautiful 45 percent whiff rate, an increase on the 38.5 percent he had last year with the offering. The changeup misses bats at a 28.6 percent rate, up from 26.2 percent in 2025.
Of course, the increase in velocity from year to year is of immense help. Blackburn’s sinker is averaging 94.2 mph this season, better than the 92.6 mph of 2025. Throw harder, and everything else will play up. Becoming a full-time reliever helps, that’s for sure. The Yankees have helped Blackburn reinvent himself and resurrect his career, and the pitcher is giving them a nice multi-inning option in their bullpen.
Sure, Blackburn’s 37/15 K/BB ratio isn’t really anything to write home about, but he limits the long ball (0.74 HR/9 in 2026) and doesn’t hurt himself with walks too often. He goes out there, throws strikes, and gets the job done almost every time he takes the mound. As you can see in the chart, Blackburn has actually improved his xwOBA against every year since 2024, until reaching a very solid .291 in 2026.
I can’t say I’m not surprised to watch him enjoy this kind of success. We all knew there was some talent in his right arm, but probably not to this extent. Sit back and enjoy the ride while it lasts, but even though he probably won’t finish the season with an ERA in the low 2.00s, the foundation is there to make this the new norm: Blackburn is probably here to stay as a reliable MLB reliever.
Jun 22, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies infielder Ezequiel Tovar (14) throws to first base for an out to end the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
Shortstop was supposed to be one of the Rockies’ few settled positions. Ezequiel Tovar’s offensive limitations were obvious, but elite defense and extra-base power gave the profile a workable floor.
His 2025 season offered reasons for patience. Hip and oblique injuries limited Tovar to 95 games and made it difficult to separate regression from compromised health. Even amid those interruptions, his strikeout and walk rates moved modestly in the right direction.
Through July 12, Tovar was hitting .200/.243/.330 with eight home runs and a 41 wRC+. His defense, once among the best at the position, has graded almost exactly average by several metrics.
Colorado should continue trying to recover the player Tovar was in 2024. His contract, age and past success, however, can no longer exempt him from competition. Ryan Ritter is the clearest upper-level alternative to evaluate, Willi Castro is more valuable in the multi-position role that makes him useful, and moving Cole Carrigg out of center field could create a second premium-position problem.
The Rockies do not need a permanent answer today. They do need to admit that shortstop is no longer settled.
The production has been the worst at the position
Tovar has appeared at shortstop in 92 games, starting 86 and logging 752.1 innings. He has received the overwhelming majority of Colorado’s playing time at the position.
He has received the 12th-most plate appearances in the group, so this is not a lightly used reserve dragging down the leaderboard. Colorado has received the least value from one of baseball’s larger shortstop workloads.
Tovar has not been the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. He has been almost exactly average.
The problem is that average defense leaves nothing to counterbalance the least productive bat at the position.
The familiar flaw stopped producing familiar damage
The Rockies did not discover this year that Tovar swings too often.
During his 2024 breakout, he posted one of baseball’s highest chase rates and walked in only 3.3% of his plate appearances. He also led the National League with 45 doubles, hit 26 home runs and won a Gold Glove.
As Cory Cohen explained in April, that balance began breaking down early this season. At the time, Tovar was chasing 48.7% of pitches outside the zone and swinging at the first pitch nearly 60% of the time. He began more than three-quarters of his plate appearances with a strike.
His increased chase contact initially looked like progress, but much of it produced only additional foul balls and weak contact.
The hoped-for adjustment was never that Tovar would stop being aggressive. It was that he would become more selective around the edges, find better pitches to damage and preserve the power that made the approach tolerable.
That has not happened.
Through July 12, Tovar carried a minus-22 Batting Run Value. His .275 expected wOBA, .221 expected batting average and .367 expected slugging percentage offered little evidence that poor luck was hiding a strong offensive process. His average exit velocity ranked in the 18th percentile, his hard-hit rate in the 17th and his squared-up rate in the sixth. His 45.6% chase rate ranked in the first percentile.
His barrel rate has fallen from 9% in 2024 and 9.3% in 2025 to 6.8% this season.
The most damaging change has come against four-seam fastballs. Tovar is hitting .146 with a .272 slugging percentage against the pitch, producing a minus-12 Run Value and a 35.5% strikeout rate.
That is a devastating weakness for a hitter whose offensive value depends on punishing early-count velocity. If pitchers can challenge him with four-seamers without fearing damage, they control the plate appearance before his chase tendencies even become relevant.
Tovar’s .247/.305/.388 line in May was much more survivable than his .471 OPS in April, but it did not hold. He hit .173/.198/.309 in June and .143/.179/.343 through July 12.
The rebound was a temporary reprieve, not a recovery.
His range is no longer producing extra outs
I love watching shortstop played well.
Shortstop can be a beautiful position: the quick first step at contact, the glove working through a difficult hop, the body control to gather, twist and fire a strike across the diamond for the out.
A good shortstop completes the routine play. A great one reaches a ball that looked like a hit.
His arm has never been the defining feature. Tovar became an elite defender at shortstop through his range, instincts, hands and body control.
Statcast credited him with 15 Outs Above Average and 11 Range Runs in both 2023 and 2024. Those totals fell to three OAA and two Range Runs in 2025, when injuries limited him to 95 games.
That context matters. One injury-shortened season did not prove that Tovar’s defensive ability had permanently changed.
The concern is that the neutral results have carried into a healthy 2026 season. Through July 12, Tovar had zero OAA and zero Range Runs across 752.1 innings. Defensive Runs Saved also graded him at zero.
Tovar can still make a beautiful play. The problem is that a highlight is not the same as a season’s worth of defensive value. His range regularly created extra outs in 2023 and 2024. That surplus diminished during an injury-marred 2025 and has not returned this season.
Even a return to Gold Glove-level defense would struggle to make a 41 wRC+ acceptable over a full season. In 2026, the Rockies have received neither the offense nor the defensive surplus that once made the arrangement workable.
Willi Castro can cover shortstop, but that is not his job
Castro has appeared at shortstop in 19 games, starting 12 and logging 102 innings. That is enough usage to show that Tovar’s hold on every available inning has loosened — if only slightly.
Castro does offer a clear offensive upgrade. Through 320 plate appearances, the switch-hitter has hit .260/.331/.378 with seven home runs. His 8.4% walk rate is more than three percentage points higher than Tovar’s, and his .331 on-base percentage is nearly 90 points better.
The performance is not without limitations. Castro has struck out in 27.8% of his plate appearances. He currently carries a minus-4 Batting Run Value and has posted a modest .294 expected wOBA. Still, he has provided functional major-league plate appearances.
Making him the everyday shortstop would work against that value. The defensive results have not supported a permanent move, either. In 102 innings at shortstop, Castro has recorded minus-3 OAA, minus-3 Fielding Run Value, minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved and four errors. The sample is limited, but the direction is consistent.
Castro has not stabilized shortstop; he has changed the compromise. His bat is more functional than Tovar’s, but his weaker defense and greater value as a multi-position player make him a substitute at shortstop, not the answer.
Ryan Ritter remains the unanswered question
Ritter received his first extended major-league opportunity in 2025 while Tovar was injured. Across 207 plate appearances, he hit .241/.296/.337 with a 29.5% strikeout rate and weak contact quality. The bat did not establish him as an everyday player, but the glove provided some reason to keep evaluating him.
Ritter played 265 innings at shortstop, where Statcast credited him with one OAA. His overall range ranked in the 75th percentile.
He has shown more offensive viability in Triple-A this season. Across 121 plate appearances with Albuquerque, Ritter is hitting .283/.403/.414 with two home runs, 15 walks and 25 strikeouts. His 20.7% strikeout rate is manageable, even allowing for an expected increase against major-league pitching. He had also begun to show some slugging before an ankle injury sent him to the injured list on April 15 and kept him out of regular Triple-A action until June 16.
Ritter is not knocking down the door, but he has shown enough on both sides of the ball to make another evaluation reasonable. He has also continued to receive the majority of his minor-league defensive work at shortstop, starting 20 games and logging 163.2 innings there this season.
None of that establishes Ritter as an everyday shortstop. It does suggest his glove may be serviceable enough for the Rockies to evaluate whether his offensive profile can survive in the majors.
Continuing to let Tovar search for his previous form against major-league pitching is defensible. But with two minor-league options remaining, a reset in Albuquerque is no longer an extreme response to a temporary slump. His bat has been the least productive at the position, the Rockies remain firmly in an evaluation phase, and Tovar is only 24.
In that context, this may be exactly the right time to give him everyday work away from the pressure of carrying the major-league position while opening a real evaluation window for Ritter.
What makes less sense is a loose platoon that leaves both players short of regular work. Tovar needs everyday repetitions if he is going to rebuild his offensive process and regain his defensive sharpness. Ritter needs them if the Rockies want an actual evaluation rather than another small, inconclusive sample.
Ritter may not be the solution, but another meaningful evaluation is justified. Tovar’s performance has made the competition necessary.
Cole Carrigg creates a different choice
Carrigg has logged three major-league innings at shortstop. His arm strength and athleticism make the position plausible, but that sample tells us nothing about whether he could handle it every day.
That makes Ritter the cleaner alternative to evaluate first. Tovar’s value is concentrated almost entirely at shortstop; Carrigg can provide defensive value in places Tovar cannot.
More talent is applying pressure, but from a distance
Tyler Bell and Ethan Holliday (No. 2 PuRP) provide legitimate long-term pressure, but neither changes the immediate calculation.
His offensive profile also gives Colorado something intriguing.
Bell hit .343/.510/.608 at Kentucky with a 13.5% chase rate, drawing 30 walks against 36 strikeouts while playing through a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.
Holliday brings a different kind of ceiling. The fourth overall pick in the 2025 draft entered professional baseball with considerable power, a patient approach and real uncertainty about how consistently he would make contact against better pitching.
His 2026 performance was beginning to look like a step forward. After striking out in 39.3% of his plate appearances during his brief debut, Holliday lowered that rate to 28.3% while hitting .262/.395/.557 with nine home runs, five doubles, two triples, and 23 walks in 152 plate appearances for Low-A Fresno.
His eventual defensive home remains uncertain. Holliday has the hands and arm strength to continue receiving work at shortstop, but his lateral range, footwork and quickness will ultimately determine whether he can remain there. A move to third base remains plausible. His bat could still make him an impact player there, though it would make him less of a direct answer to Colorado’s shortstop question.
Bell and Holliday carry far more upside than the other lower-level alternatives, but both remain distant from the major-league decision. Bell is expected to require surgery on his injured shoulder, with the timing still to be determined. The recovery will likely sideline him for several months and delay the start of his professional career. Holliday must also complete his recovery from foot surgery and return healthy before continuing his development against more advanced pitching.
Neither solves the present problem. Their presence does give the Rockies another reason to keep evaluating shortstop rather than treating it as permanently assigned.
Two related problems
The Rockies were not wrong to invest in the 2023-24 version of Tovar. None of their alternatives has matched his defensive ceiling, led the National League in doubles or produced 3.7 fWAR at age 22.
That player was worth believing in.
Past success, however, cannot permanently insulate him from present performance.
Tovar has no obvious everyday fallback. Center field at Coors Field is not a realistic alternative; second base would reduce the positional value of his glove; and his bat is nowhere near the standard required at third base, first base or an outfield corner. If he is going to be a valuable everyday player, it will almost certainly be at shortstop.
That leaves Colorado with two connected but distinct tasks: recover Tovar and get more production from shortstop. His contract, age and past success make him worth trying to fix. They do not make the current arrangement acceptable.
The Rockies do not have to give up on Tovar.
They do have to stop waiting passively for the position to fix itself.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 14: Louis Varland #77 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches in the eighth inning during the 96th MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Out last off-day of the All-Star break. There is an MLB game today, the Mets and Phillies are playing tonight.
The Jays play tomorrow night, it is an Apple TV game, only of those things I hate.
The Jays have Spencer Miles starting tomorrow. I don’t understand why we have a bullpen type day after several days off, but then there are many things I don’t understand about this season. I guess Miles has gone 4.1 innings in three outings, so maybe he could do five tomorrow? He’s had six days off. And, you know, the pen is rested.
But still, would you not go with one of your ‘real’ starters, who have also had time off?
Saturday Shane Bieber starts and Sunday it is Trey Yesavage. Kevin Gausman gets the Monday start against the Rays and then we have Dylan Cease.
A seven game home stand and, you know, seven wins would get us back over .500. Just saying. The Jays are 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, but personally, I don’t think any team under .500 will make the playoffs, even if the last wild card spot is a game under .500 at the moment.
Mayo: “He’s the best high school catcher in the class. There’s power there, he’s a really good defender behind the plate. I think what makes it stand out additionally is that the Blue Jays did not have a second-round pick, so to get a talent like Will Brick in the fourth helps offset the fact they didn’t have a second-rounder, cause he’s at least a second-round talent.”
Nice to hear, since we didn’t have a pick until #39 and then not again until #103. Brick was our third pick.
Rotowire has a list of the 25 unluckiest batters of the first half. Number 25 on the list is Vladimir Guerrero. To come up with the list they compared expected batting average, expected slugging average and expected wOBA to what the players actually posted. Vlad’s batting average is .025 below expected, slugging .049 and wOBA is .031 below expected.
Also on the list is Bo Bichette at 20th. Top of the list is Austin Wells from the Yankees (.052 below expect BA, .097 below expected slugging and .056 below expected wOBA.
I guess the hope is that hope is that luck has to even out at some point. But then I don’t know that it likely to even out this season.
This is interesting, teams are using AL on iPads to, let’s say, consult on managerial decisions, like pinch hitting, pitch calling, etc.
According to a commissioner’s office memo obtained by The Athletic, teams were pushing the boundaries of guidelines governing the use of technology by “in many cases” installing custom apps that expanded the use of the iPads “beyond their originally intended purpose to include…
PHILADELPHIA — Jordan Walker rooted for Chipper Jones as a young Braves fan raised in suburban Atlanta and used to beg his family to take him to baseball games at Turner Field.
Walker’s parents -- “Jordan’s Dad” and “Jordan’s Mom,” as known by their customized jerseys at the Home Run Derby — often obliged. Derrick Walker and his 7-year-old son were out in left field seats for an April series in 2010 when Braves slugger and future Gold Glove winner Jayson Heyward made his debut.
Oh, for sure the younger Walker still cheered for Jones.
But to see a young Black star such as Heyward command the outfield the way Walker wanted to play, a new favorite player was born.
“As soon as Jayson Heyward debuted,” Walker said. “I was like, oh yeah, that’s the guy. That’s who I want to be like.”
The significance of representation in the Black community was never lost on Walker.
So when Walker, a former St. Louis Cardinals’ first-round pick once on the cusp of bust territory after several demotions over the last few seasons, had his breathtaking, breakthrough moment with a six-swing, six-homer rally past Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber to win the Derby, he hoped his star-making turn would inspire more young Black athletes to follow in his footsteps and choose baseball.
Just as he was inspired by Heyward.
“For Black kids, I want to kind of be a role model for them,” Walker said, “like he was for me.”
With each prodigious blast off his customized Iron Man bat, the 24-year-old Walker silenced the Philly boo birds clamoring for a home team Schwarber victory and shined in his coming-out party beyond the St. Louis bubble and to the entire baseball world.
He flashed the kind of swag that appealed to a younger generation much in the way Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. did in his heyday. Walker wore his Cardinals hat backward, chewed a big wad of bubble gum and reveled afterward in flashing his imitation Liberty Bell bling, the champions’ chain presented by Ryan Howard.
None other than career home run leader Barry Bonds gave Walker his stamp of approval — “you got my trophy, too” — for winning the greatest Derby he’s ever seen.
“That means the world to me,” Walker said.
Walker is among the scores of All-Star talents leading a modest uptick of Black baseball players in the major leagues. When Houston and Philadelphia played the 2022 World Series that featured no U.S-born Black players, Astros manager Dusty Baker noted, “It looks bad. But there is help on the way.”
They’re here — with Walker as the All-Star weekend centerpiece.
“I think once kids see more people to look up to,” All-Star Nationals outfielder James Wood said, “the more kids will get back into baseball.”
Baseball has seen modest gains with Black baseball players
Take a look around the All-Star clubhouses and it was clear — while not at the pace perhaps MLB would like — Walker helped represent a new wave of emerging Black talent.
Three-time AL MVP and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge sat out with an injury, but Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams and outfielder Wood, Cincinnati Reds ace Chase Burns and Braves catcher Drake Baldwin ushered in the next, young group of future Black stars. The game also featured Minnesota Twins veteran Byron Buxton.
“I feel like there’s been like a little surge in getting more Black players in the game,” Wood said. “We’ve got four on our team right now. Last year at one point, we had five. I think you’re seeing it come back.”
MLB said that 6.8% of players on opening day rosters, injured lists and the restricted list were Black, up from 6.2% at the start of the 2025 season and 6.0% at the beginning of 2024. This year’s 0.6% increase was the most in a season since a 0.7% rise from 2017 to 2018.
Twenty of the 64 Black players had been in MLB-sponsored programs such as the MLB Youth Academy, Breakthrough Series, DREAM Series, Nike RBI and the Hank Aaron Invitational.
MLB said the total included 22 players 25 or younger and eight older than 32. The average age of Black players was 27.8 and the overall average 29.25.
The 23-year-old Burns, 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA with the Reds, was proud to hear Walker champion a Black youth movement at the Derby.
“You don’t see a lot of Black athletes in baseball,” Burns said. “I don’t know why that it is. I think it’s great for guys like me and him to strive to get Black athletes into the game of baseball, whether it’s talking about it or doing stuff in the community. I think it’s great he pointed it out.”
Walker hopes he can keep leading the way
The best chance, naturally, for Walker to serve as a role model for the next generation is to make sure he’s not just a one-Derby wonder.
Walker has 22 home runs, leads baseball with 74 RBIs and is a solid 13th with an .886 OPS — Wood is second at .985 — for a Cardinals team in the NL wild-card hunt. The Cardinals finally are getting the production expected out of the right fielder they drafted with their first-round pick in 2020.
Walker, who signed out of high school after he had committed to Duke, skipped Triple-A and made the opening day roster as the youngest player in baseball in 2023 and tied Eddie Murray’s under 21-rookie record with a 13-game hitting streak.
He was sent down later that season; was the 2024 opening day right fielder and demoted again with a .155 batting average. Walker suffered a variety of injuries in 2025 and played in just 111 games that suddenly put his future as a key Cardinals’ contributor very much in doubt.
Leaning on the same convictions that made him believe he could overtake the mighty Schwarber in the Derby championship round, Walker said a day after his win he never wavered in his belief that he would blossom into an everyday player and All-Star with the Cardinals.
He tinkered with his swing during an extend rehab assignment last season and the results were on full display in Philadelphia with 12 home runs in the final round.
“When my swing’s fluid and easy, that’s when it’s at it’s best,” Walker said. “That’s really what it is.”
Walker, who struck out in his lone at bat in the All-Star Game, earned a $1 million prize for winning the Derby, which is more than his 2026 salary of $799,400.
(Here’s a fun fact: Walker has 49 career homers off 49 different pitchers.)
As for the backward hat, “I call it the Griffey because no one did it better than him.”
No one did it better than Walker at the Derby.
He just hopes his win can be a launching pad for a next generation of Black athletes into the big leagues.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 10: Bryce Eldridge #8 of the San Francisco Giants is swarmed by teammates after a walk off grand slam at Oracle Park on June 10, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Remember May 1st? I don’t. But on that date, I wrote this about March & April:
The Giants were not a good baseball team, which doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be a bad baseball team going forward. Nobody wants to root for a bad team anyway.
That was the start of a post that looked at some of the fun/not fun stats from a bad first month of the season. Look at that language! Reader, I am an eternal pessimist, and the Giants have been so bad for so long (sorry, 2021 team!) that my default expectation for them is to come off more like a 100-loss team every season than a successful one, and it’s a belief that’s served me well. But sometimes, I have to pretend that We Can’t Predict Baseball just to conjure a thesis and compose an article about this increasingly putrid organization. This was one of those times.
And yet, here we are, midway through July, a hopeless 66 games ahead of us. There are plenty of numbers to look at to explain how we arrived at this bleak place, but in putting the post together, I was surprised to find one positive worth examining. So, let’s start there before getting into all the obviously bad stuff.
Hitting
I spent some time gushing about Luis Arraez yesterday as he’s the only plausible MVP case on the Giants’ roster here in 2026, but for the purposes of examining the team’s numbers from the first part of the season, it’s basically just Luis Arraez. He’s the 8th-most valuable player in Major League Baseball mainly because of his defense, yes, but his .330 batting average is second only to former Giant Otto Lopez (.334), the same 1-2 as the MLB Hits leaderboard (Lopez: 127, Arraez: 119); plus, his 4% strikeout rate is the lowest in the sport (Nico Hoerner is second with 7.9%). His 7 triples trail only Corbin Carroll. His 87 singles are #1 in MLB and he’s 20th in doubles.
While he probably won’t stay at 127 wRC+, I’ll take the opportunity to list all the Giants who’ve hit that or better since 2017 (min. 200 PA):
Buster Posey, 2017 (128 wRC+)
Mike Yastrzemski, 2020 (158)
Brandon Belt, 2021 (159)
Darin Ruf, 2021 (144)
Buster Posey, 2021 (141)
Brandon Crawford, 2021 (140)
Joc Pederson, 2022 (144)
Wilmer Flores, 2023 (134)
Tyler Fitzgerald, 2024 (132)
Rafael Devers wound up with a 135 wRC+ between the Red Sox and Giants, but specifically with the Giants he hit to a 126 wRC+. Yes, this is an arbitrary cutoff line, and it’s not as though Arraez is one of the top-top hitters (36th), but I declare this season of his to be fun!
Meanwhile, the Giants have scored the second-fewest runs in the National League (395 to San Diego’s 379). They have the sixth-lowest total in the sport just ahead of this weekend’s opponent, the Seattle Mariners (392).
The team’s walk rate has inched up to 6.7%. Still worst in the sport, but they have the sixth-best strikeout rate (20.6%), trailing the Cardinals (20.5%), Dodgers (20.3%), Diamondbacks (19.6%), Blue Jays (19.6%) and Rays (18.9%). And it’s not like they’re just hitting a bunch of singles. Their team ISO of .164 is 9th in MLB, 5th in the NL. The 106 homers is a mere 21st, but they’re tied for 1st with the Rockies in doubles (179) and tied for 2nd with the Diamondbacks in triples (21). Fun!
They’ve also managed to do okay avoiding the double play, with just 58 grounded into so far (14th in MLB). Knock out 2020 (51 GIDP), and these 2026 Giants are on pace for the fewest GIDPs by a Giants team since 2017. Last year, they hit into just 103, which is the fewest of the Oracle Park era when you remove 2020. The 2001 team is 2nd-best with 108. They’ve come a long way since Casey McGehee. Fun!
And after Willy Adames ended a decades-long drought of a 30-home run hitter in the lineup, the team looks like it could have two or (if Adames gets really hot in the final two months) even three 30-home run dudes in the lineup. Devers and Schmitt already have 19 and Adames has 15. It was at this exact point last season that he went on his tear, hitting .232/.335/.494 (.828 OPS) with 18 homers over his final 64 games. Fun!
Pitching
As I’ve said before, I tend to ignore Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement in favor of FanGraphs’ fWAR (since FanGraphs contributors are hired by MLB teams more frequently), but every so often, rWAR will stick out to me. For instance, the Giants have 16 pitchers with negative rWARs. Yes, among those are Christian Koss (-0.1) and Buddy Kennedy (-0.1) , but even taking them out of the picture leaves us with 14 pitchers, which I’d say is a lot.
Ryan Walker, -0.9 rWAR
Matt Gage, -0.4
Adrian Houser, -0.3
Tyler Mahle, -0.3
Trevor McDonald, -0.3
Carson Seymour, -0.3
Ryan Borucki, -0.2
Jose Butto, -0.2
Wilkin Ramos, -0.2
Caleb Kilian, -0.1
Tristan Beck, -0.1
Gregory Santos, -0.1
Reiver Sanmartin, -0.1
Spencer Bivens, -0.1
The total value is -3.8 wins above replacement. I’ll be that guy and do this: +4 wins for the Giants is 45-51. That would put them 6.5/7 games back of a Wild Card, sure, but it would’ve saved everyone a lot of embarrassment. Still, this is where the rWAR vs. fWAR is meaningful. I don’t think the Giants are four wins short because of the pitching staff. I think the negative values given to the position players or, like, Spencer Bivens is sort of not worth examining and I’m not sure that Houser, Mahle, and McDonald add up to -0.9 wins. That’s 1.2 rWAR right there.
For comparison, FanGraphs has only 6 pitchers with negative values: Matt Gage (-0.8 fwAR), Ryan Walker (-0.3), Reiver Sanmartin (-0.3), Jose Butto (-0.2), Ryan Borucki (-0.1), and Carson Seymour (-0.1). That’s about 2 wins lost to relief pitching, which would be 43-53 and seems a bit more correct if we’re just looking at which model can best help us diagnose the problem. The starting pitching has been top heavy (Landen Roupp @ +2.1 fWAR, Logan Webb @ 1.9), but the rest basically replacement level, and that feels more correct.
Having said that, the Baseball Reference numbers sent me to Stathead to conduct this search: how many teams in the San Francisco era have featured a sub-replacement pitching staff? The current Giants’ staff is at 2.2 rWAR, and maybe thanks to Logan Webb alone they might manage to stay in the positive, but I was curious. Unfortunately, the only two results that came up were 1996 (-2.3) and 1995 (-10.4). So, I expanded the scope a bit to see which teams had below 5 wins above replacement in value. That list was a bit more illustrative. 9 teams registered:
Just one winning team in the bunch and all pretty (in)famous teams to some degree. That 2020 might’ve been something had there been some good in the bullpen. That got corrected for 2021.
Now, contrast this with FanGraphs’ bottom 9 of the San Francisco era:
Okay, so, some actual agreement between the systems here. The four worst pitching staffs in San Francisco Giants history were in 1995, 2020, 1996, and 2026, with the only real controversy being 2020 vs. 1996. But at the end of the day, Zack & Buster’s Pitching Staff has been a top-5 worst of the San Francisco era. Fun!(?)
Fielding
The Giants wound up one of the worst fielding teams in the sport. They have the distinction of being “first worst,” as their -6 Outs Above Average (18th in MLB) trails Houston’s +0. They’re followed by an eclectic mix of teams — Nationals (-8), Rockies (-10), Pirates (-11), Rays (-11), Phillies (-15)… Tigers (-19), Twins (-19)… Mariners (-30; yes, they’re dead last) — so, maybe Outs Above Average isn’t the best measure? Or, defense hasn’t been the deciding factor in team success this year… unless you’re the Mariners?
They were particularly bad (-12) against left-handed batters, which makes sense because of (1) Oracle Park and (2) Jung Hoo Lee, who is -2 in right field but -6 in Fielding Run Value overall thanks to also being -2 in CF.
And, to be clear, it is the outfield that’s hurt them, especially in left field (-8, 29th in MLB). On the infield, they’re +5 Outs Above Average (13th in MLB), and even there, the number has been dragged down by Willy Adames (-12) and first base (-2).
Okay, I’ve taken a break from gushing about Luis Arraez, but now it’s back to the gushing. His +10 Outs Above Average is 6th-best in the sport of any position. He’s 11th in terms of Fielding Run Value, which Statcast defines:
Fielding Run Value is Statcast’s metric for capturing a player’s measurable defensive performance by converting all of Statcast’s individual defensive metrics from different scales onto the same run-based scale, which can then be read as a player being worth X runs above or Y runs below average. Currently, the conversions for those metrics are as follows. (Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are available since 2016.)
How to read it: In 2024, Andrés Giménez had a Fielding Run Value of +17 runs, which came from 14 runs on range and 3 runs via his involvement in double plays, making him the most valuable defender in baseball among non-catchers that season.
Matt Chapman still checks in 40th on the Fielding Run Value list at +5. His +4 Outs Above Average ranks 55th.
Regrettably, Willy Adames is in the bottom 3 of Outs Above Average (-11), behind Junior Caminero (-13) and CJ Abrams (-11). Moving Adames off of shortstop as soon as they trade Luis Arraez is probably the move, even if doing something like that in-season is tricky/inadvisable.
And the less said about Heliot Ramos’s defense (-2 Outs Above Average & -3.6 Defensive Runs Above Average in 58 games), the better. Yikes. He’ll need to hit like he did in 2024 — 20% better than the league average — to be a valuable player. Fun!(?)
It hasn’t gone well and what’s a little amusing about the whole situation is that it was entirely predictable. Sometimes, it’s fun to predict outcomes and be right, regardless of if it’s a positive or negative outcome. But bad bullpens are really hard to watch. And the team’s continuing inability to develop pitching prospects at a useful rate has really added insult to injury. Oh well.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 14: Chase Burns #26 of the Cincinnati Reds walks the carpet during the 2026 All-Star Red Carpet Show presented by Mastercard at Independence Mall on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Cincinnati Reds may technically be on the All Star break, but that didn’t stop them from making one of the most important decisions of the franchise’s history. On Thursday afternoon, ESPN’s Jeff Passan announced that the club and rising ace Chase Burns have agreed to a massive 7-year, $105 contract that cements his status as one of the franchise’s cornerstones.
Right-hander Chase Burns and the Cincinnati Reds are in agreement on a seven-year, $105 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Burns, 23, was an All-Star this season and one of the best young pitchers in baseball. No club options. A straight deal that will run through 2033.
As MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand noted, it’s the largest contract every given to a pitcher with so little service time, and the deal includes no further options (nor deferrals). It also ties the total amount the Reds once guaranteed to pitcher Homer Bailey, and that’s the last time I’d like to use that name in reference to Burns going forward.
Reds P Chase Burns has agreed to a 7-year, $105M extension, per source. The deal, which includes no options or deferrals, is the largest guarantee given to a pitcher with less than 4 years of service and ties the largest guarantee given to a pitcher in Reds history (Homer Bailey)
It’s a massive commitment from a franchise that, to date, had been weary of making commitments to any of their players long-term. Hunter Greene was signed to a contract similar to that of Burns, albeit having done so fresh off of Tommy John surgery and with it including club options that were a hedge for the club. Jose Trevino picked up a small extension after being acquired just last season, but that was just about it for the club’s accounting ledger beyond what they doled out on 1-year deals in 2026 and their arbitration-controlled core.
Now, they know exactly what they’ve got on-payroll with their duel aces for the foreseeable future, and that’s a pair around whom every team in the sport would want to build.
Less than a month ago, the Red Sox were a complete afterthought to the MLB season at large. Sitting in dead last in the American League at 14 games under .500, all anybody in Boston could talk about was when Craig Breslow would be fired and how many veteran pieces would be sold off at the inevitable trade deadline firesale.
Yet as you know, things changed in a hurry. The four-game sweep of the Yankees was followed by a series loss to the lowly Nationals, so eyebrows were barely raised regarding the possibility of a real Red Sox run. But three straight road sweeps over the Angels, White Sox and Mets changed the scope of the entire season.
Or did it?
We can’t really tell. Perhaps we’re too close to … everything surrounding this team.
So, in an effort to understand what the rest of the baseball world might think of the Red Sox, here’s a look at all of the MLB power rankings from the All-Star break to see where Boston stands after winning 14 of 16 games heading into the break.
“Maybe the Red Sox don’t turn out to be sellers,” wrote D.J. Short, “but they probably won’t be big buyers either as they wait for some of their big names (Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony among them) to return.”
Jordan Shusterman wrote that the All-Star break was “something of a vibe-killer” for the Red Sox, who are “on the doorstep of a wild-card spot — a shocking reality considering how bad things were going early on.”
ESPN didn’t have a straight numerical ranking, instead grouping the Red Sox with teams 15-21. ESPN placed a projected final record of 82-80 on the Red Sox, giving them 51 percent playoff odds (and 1.9 percent championship odds).
“The Red Sox should hang around the playoff picture because the roster remains talented even without the two stars [Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony] and the AL remains pedestrian,” wrote Jorge Castillo. “It’s been a remarkable turnaround. The industry expected Boston to trade off players over the next couple of weeks just a few days ago. Now Breslow could increase the team’s postseason chances by adding big league talent by the Aug. 3 deadline. A postseason spot is there for the taking and Boston should do everything possible to snatch one.”
“Jake Bennett reeling off four consecutive quality starts has also provided an unforeseeable boost,” wrote Kerry Miller. “Can they get healthy in the second half and complete the improbable comeback from a 32-46 start?”
The highest ranking of them all, FanGraphs included a caveat that its Elo system is “very reactive to recent performance.” So the 14-2 record heading into the break likely skewed some numbers.
“Since the beginning of June, only the Tigers have allowed fewer runs than the Red Sox,” Jake Mailhot wrote. “Just a few weeks ago, Boston looked like an obvious seller, but now it’s not so certain. … If the Red Sox can manage to tread water over the next month, the returns of Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony could give them a big boost down the stretch.”
Average ranking: 16th
Ultimately, the team that’s two games under .500 ranks in the middle of the pack in Major League Baseball. That’s about right.
Clearly, the reality of the past few weeks is undeniable, but everybody (outside of FanGraphs’ model) remains a bit cautious about jumping the gun and declaring the Red Sox a legitimate contender in a very weak American League. How the Red Sox handle their 10-game homestand coming out of the break will go a long way in determining the outlook for the short term and the much longer term as well.
BOSTON - AUGUST 12: Ailing NESN Red Sox color commentator Jerry Remy was in the booth with Don Orsillo and Dennis Eckersley during the top of the second inning of tonight's Red Sox game against the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park. Here he acknowledges the cheers of the crowd below. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Like Elaine Benes trying to become a submarine captain, I spent much of my winter eating a lot of bad sandwiches watching a lot of old NESN footage to uncover some gems from past broadcasts. I wanted the Pokey Leap from 2004, but also found That Catch Coco Made. And that wasn’t all. There were a few more things in the archives I want to share.
With the Red Sox off for the All-Star break what is even on NESN? Here was yesterday’s schedule:
I guess the big feature is Boston’s Entered the Chat. And a rerun of a game from 2005. Actually, that’s kinda fun, I was at that game. In addition to a Trot inside-the-parker, it was started by David Wells! Remember The Wells era?
But there used to be more. The mid-2000s were peak NESN custom programming. Think Sox Appeal. Well maybe not that. But think The Remys. Or documentaries. I’ve found NESN to be really hit or miss over the years. Does anyone watch the restaurant show? Or even their talk show? I honestly don’t know. But maybe people should and it will encourage more weird and wonderful stuff like the Spaceman piece. That was even released on DVD!
Or what about a musical number?
You’ve heard of Go Cubs Go? What about Go Red Sox!
It’s no Dirty Water or Tessie but honestly what is?
This might have been hit with a cease & desist for copyright infringement, but hopefully is still up and playing. It’s weird and I didn’t remember it at all when it came on during a game.
How about a goofy PSA with Big Papi and the mayor? Actually this is something we do see, if not as ads but over social media. There is something about Menino and Ortiz though. Maybe it’s all nostalgia, but the ad is just weird. And he gave us the “rolling rally” so who can ever forget Menino when he is the guy who created the Duck Boat parade we’ve enjoyed so many times?
The All-Star Game had a whole segment about baseball and nostalgia. Pedro’s on the mound. Baseball isn’t gone. It’s still here. And NESN is still around. But there is something missing from the time when NESN really did take some bigger swings at content. The Dave O’Brien or the Middlebrooks awards? Maybe it’s time to try again. Maybe that time will come when Payton Tolle has retired many, many years from now and is a broadcaster.
If you could get a show on the air at NESN what would it be? A special? A game show? Red Sox themed Bob Ross-style painting?
