White Sox, GM Chris Getz face hard act to follow in 2027, in spite of unexpected playoff run

CHICAGO — The Chicago White Sox face quite a tough act to follow in 2027, if and when the season starts.

Chicago made history in 2026 by becoming the first team to reach the playoffs after two straight 100-loss seasons. And it wasn’t just two terrible seasons. The White Sox climbed to 84-78 this season after three consecutive 100-loss campaigns, including 2024 when they set a post-1900 era record with 121 defeats.

Still, general manager Chris Getz, who quipped his surprising young club was “playing with house money” in September, admitted Chicago’s loss to the Cleveland Guardians in the deciding Game 5 of their American League Division Series hurt.

“I do need to acknowledge that there was a sting in Cleveland when we came up short,” Getz told reporters.

After sweeping Houston 2-0 in a Wild Card round, Chicago raced to a 2-0 series lead against the Guardians before dropping three straight to end their playoff run.

After speaking with manager Will Venable, coaches and players following the final loss, Getz processed an abundance of mutual gratitude and “zoomed out” for a bigger picture.

“You know it was such a young player group and it’s not easy to break into the major leagues, let alone play in games of such high stakes,” Getz said. “It can’t get lost on you what these players went out there and did. They exceeded expectations, for themselves, certainly as a team.”

The White Sox, who relied heavily on the longball to score an AL-leading 776 runs in the regular season, struck out a record 21 times against Cleveland pitching in their season-ending 2-0 loss in Game 5.

Getz admitted that exposed one of his team’s weaknesses.

The White Sox went deep 211 times, second-most in the AL, in 2026 – and struck out 1,494 times, second highest in the league. Rookie Munetaka Murakami, second-year shortstop Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas gave the White Sox their first trio of 30-plus home run hitters since 2008.

Montgomery set a record with 227 strikeouts. Murakami struck out 196 times. Both saw their batting averages slide in the second half.

“You know their first halves put us in a position to get into the playoffs,” Getz said. “They still, in my mind, exceeded expectations. Are there going to be adjustments needed along the way? Yes.”

Getz is confident both sluggers will work to improve their plate approaches in the offseason, then apply those changes for better contact rates in 2027 — provided owners and the players’ union can ratify a new collective bargaining agreement.

The White Sox need to deepen their pitching staff, especially with starters or arms that can throw bulk relief innings. Venable cobbled together pitching schemes in 2026, using openers 31 times in the regular season.

“We’re going to need more out of our starting pitching,” Getz said.

Getz expects some of that to come from within the organization, from the likes of Hagen Smith, Grant Taylor, Noah Schultz and David Sandlin. There’s also Shane Smith, the White Sox opening day starter who was sent to Triple-A in April after enduring mechanical and injury issues.

He also expects Davis Martin and Luis Castillo to be healthy. Martin fizzled, apparently due to a right leg injury, after getting off to a 9-2 start. Castillo, a three-time All-Star acquired at the trade deadline, ended up on the IL with a right shoulder impingement.

The White Sox are deep with young infielders, especially after second baseman Chase Meidroth’s breakout season. More are on the way, led by Roch Cholowsky, the top pick in the 2026 draft.

Getz says the outfield is “an area in which I think we can make greater strides for improvement,” despite the unexpected emergence of Tristan Peters as an All-Star. The White Sox don’t have a long list of free agents, but left fielder Randal Grichuk provided a huge boost after the Yankees released the 35-year-old and Chicago signed him.

“But if anything, I think I feel like really good about the depth we’ve created,” Getz said.

Now, Getz said, his “focus tightens a little bit more” as he tries to add talent via free agency or trades.

The GM has yet to talk to owner Jerry Reinsdorf about a budget for next season, but will soon and expects to have ample financial leeway.

“You know, we’ve got the payroll flexibility,” said Getz, whose team’s $117.7 million payroll in 2026 ranked 24th, according to Spotrac.

The White Sox remain in “sensitive and private” discussions with Murakami’s representatives about an extension on the two-year, $34 million deal the Japanese first baseman signed last December.

“Mune means a lot to us and we certainly want him to come back here and be here for a long time,” Getz said.

And when it comes to the uncertainly around the CBA?

“There’s going to be opportunities to add,” he said. “The timing of that, who knows?” Getz said he’ll be prepared to “pounce” should an attractive free agent deal emerge after the World Series.

One thing Getz doesn’t want to change: The team’s upbeat, almost magic clubhouse atmosphere of 2026. He credits that to Venable’s ability to communicate, as well as his players.

“When I just think about this player group and how much they care for each other and care for this organization… it makes what transpired this season even more special,” Getz said.

Here’s where to watch Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 4 live for free

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An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 11: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers at bat against the Milwaukee Brewers during the second inning in game one of the National League Championship Series at American Family Field on October 11, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images), Image 2 shows MILWAUKEE, WI - AUGUST 21: Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers (9) hits a two run homer during a game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves on August 21, 2026, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI. (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t lost a playoff series since Shohei Ohtani joined the team in 2024.

That could all change tonight.

At 5 p.m. PST, Dave Roberts’ two-time defending World Series champions come into Game 4 of the NLCS down 0-3 to Pat Murphy’s 103-win Milwaukee Brewers.

“We didn’t expect to be in this situation, this position. But this one sucks,” Hernández said, per Santiago Gil Sam.

As fans are likely aware, the only MLB team to ever come back from a three-game deficit in a seven-game series was the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees in the 2004 ALCS.

Steering the ship for Los Angeles tonight is Tyler Glasnow, who helped the club clinch the NLDS over the Braves. Rookie Shane Drohan (7-5, 4.19 ERA) will be on the hill for the Brew Crew.

Don’t miss out. Emotions will be running high in La La Land.

Here’s how to tune in to the Game 4 of the NLCS for free without cable.

Brewers vs. Dodgers start time

Game 4 of the Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS is scheduled to begin today, Oct. 15, at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET.

How to watch Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 4 for free

If you don’t have cable, you’ll need a live TV streaming service to stream the NLCS for free.

DIRECTV is our favorite service for trying live TV for free. Right now, you can take advantage of a five-day free trial before saving $30 on your first month. We recommend the Choice plan, which includes FOX as part of its 125+ channel options.

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Brewers vs. Dodgers starting pitchers

Shane Drohan (7-5, 4.19 ERA) will start for the Brewers. Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 3.53 ERA) is taking the hill for the Dodgers.

Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS schedule

  • Game 1: Brewers 2, Dodgers 1
  • Game 2: Brewers 7, Dodgers 4
  • Game 3: Brewers 6, Dodgers 2
  • Game 4: Oct. 15, 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET (FS1)
  • Game 5: Oct. 16, 6 p.m. PT / 9 p.m. ET (FS1)*
  • Game 6: Oct. 18, 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET (FS1)*
  • Game 7: Oct. 19, 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET (FOX or FS1)*

*if necessary


Why you should trust ‘Post Wanted’ by the New York Post

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Phillies bring back Don Mattingly as manager. Coaching staff suffers brunt of late-season failure

PHILADELPHIA — Dave Dombrowski believed in Don Mattingly so much he told the interim manager following the Philadelphia Phillies’ elimination that he was the leading candidate to get the full-time job in 2027.

Still, the team’s president of baseball operations wanted to poke around other options, just in case.

After checking in on other potential candidates — including getting rebuffed for a second time this year by former Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora — Dombrowski had some good news over the weekend for Mattingly: He was the manager.

“The first time the job was offered to anybody was Saturday, when I offered it to Don,” Dombrowski said.

Philadelphia gave Mattingly a two-year deal even after a late-season collapse nearly cost the team a playoff spot. The Phillies almost blew a four-game lead for a wild card in the final week of the regular season, then lost in three games to the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card Series.

Mattingly did go 79-55 and earned the respect of a veteran team that largely pushed to have him return following his promotion from bench coach after Rob Thomson was fired in April

The Phillies’ core of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have made five straight playoff appearances and averaged 91 wins per year during that stretch.

They just haven’t won the World Series.

There are plenty of changes ahead — Dombrowski touched on many during a 60-minute season-ending news conference — but the constant will be in the dugout.

“Last year really wasn’t my team,” Mattingly said on a video call. “It was Thomps’ team. I took over from that point and just kind of just drove the car from there.”

He added: “I think there are things that I want to do differently.”

Just how much can Dombrowski and Mattingly do to lead the Phillies — who had a $284.7 million opening day payroll — and their aging cast of stars to their first World Series title since 2008, especially with a work stoppage almost certain in December?

Phillies expect more out of Trea Turner

Trea Turner hit .242 with a .675 OPS with a league-worst 21 errors at shortstop in his fourth season with the Phillies. He went 1 for 10 in the playoffs and still has seven years left on his 11-year, $300 million deal, all but making him immovable in the trade market.

Dombrowski told Turner during a meeting at Citizens Bank Park that he needs to show in spring training he can play at shortstop or else the veteran potentially could move to the outfield.

“He needs to fix some things with his swing,” Dombrowski said. “From a defensive perspective we were very clear. He knows he has to be better at shortstop. I told him it’s really mandatory that it’s like that.”

Turner took the blame after the Phillies were eliminated by the Braves and noted “I’ve got a lot of work to do” to regain the form he had in 2025, when he led the NL in hitting and made only eight errors.

“He’s determined to show us he can play it,” Dombrowski said. “I said, you have to show it. You cannot play shortstop like you did defensively in ‘26 going to ’27.”

The Phillies are remaking the coaching staff

The Phillies fired hitting coach Kevin Long and infield coach Bobby Dickerson.

They hired former New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza as their new infield coach and third base coach. Mendoza was fired by the Mets in June. He had spent 15 seasons working for the New York Yankees, the last four as bench coach, before the Mets hired him to replace Buck Showalter after the 2023 season.

Phillies sign Mayza

Left-handed reliever Tim Mayza and the Phillies agreed to a one-year, $2.75 million contract. He had a 3.48 ERA in 67 1/3 innings in his first season with the Phillies. He even started six games as an opener.

Several Phillies face uncertain futures

Third baseman Alec Bohm is eligible for free agency, as is second baseman Luis Arraez. Bohm ended the season on a hot streak and finished with 88 RBIs and a .698 OPS. He won Game 2 against Atlanta with a two-out homer in the 10th inning. Arraez, acquired at the trade deadline, missed the playoffs with a sprained left ankle.

The Phillies have prized infielder prospect Aidan Miller cleared to play and ready to compete for a spot on the roster after he missed most of 2026 with a back injury.

Dombrowski intends to stick around

The 70-year-old Dombrowski enters the final year of his contract in 2027 but expects to stick around beyond that with the Phillies.

“I enjoy it, (I’m) healthy, have quality people around me,” Dombrowski said.

An ace in the hole in more ways than one

LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 24: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow (31) pitches in the first inning during the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres on September 24, 2026 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. (Photo by David Dennis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Dodgers must win to stave off elimination for at least a day, but in order to do that, they must score, which hasn’t been an easy task in this series against the Brewers. So much is made of this team’s superior resources, and in a game such as this one—more than ever—the stage is set for that advantage to finally play a key role, helping the Dodgers stay alive. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball against Shane Drohan, who has yet to appear in a playoff game in 2026.

Formerly the ace of a Rays team that made the postseason multiple times—including a World Series appearance against the Dodgers—Glasnow hasn’t been asked to fill that specific role of an ace for the Dodgers, but for one start here, he is going to have to. The solid five or so innings with no more than two runs and a high pitch count—also known as the Glasnow special—are likely not going to cut it for an attack that hasn’t produced regardless of whom it has faced.

The experience of Game 3 was a rather deflating one; between the leadoff homer allowed by Blake Snell and Milwaukee answering in the seventh after Los Angeles scored in the previous inning, the crowd could never get into the game for a sustained period. Oftentimes with sweeps and commanding series wins alike, there is a clear momentum carrying a team—it’s up to Glasnow and company to disrupt that in some way.

Lastly, the immediate impact of Drohan serving as the opener is the likely absence of Max Muncy from the starting lineup. As far as how much leeway the left-hander will get, likely very little, with May ready to step in for a multi-inning appearance out of the bullpen.

NLCS Game 4 info

ALCS/NLCS gamethread: Rays at Guardians, Brewers at Dodgers

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 14: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on from the dugout during the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game three of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on October 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The mighty Los Angeles Dodgers have their backs to the wall as the Milwaukee Brewers look to continue their clinical dismantling of the two-time defending World Series champs. The Brewers hold a 3-0 lead and will look to put the Dodgers away tonight and advance to the World Series for the first time since 1982. With Shohei Ohtani struggling badly and an aging roster looking a bit past its sell by date, can the Dodgers pull it together a make a series out of this?

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians are going toe-to-toe in a pretty evenly matched series so far. The Guardians have their ace, Gavin Williams on the mound and will be looking to tip the series in their favor at home. The Rays will go with a short start from RHP Griffin Jax, and hope their bullpen can get them the rest of the way.

Rays at Guardians gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on TBS.

Brewers at Dodgers starts at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Cincinnati Reds avoid arbitration with Oswaldo Cabrera

TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 27: Oswaldo Cabrera #16 of the Cincinnati Reds high-fives teammates in the dugout after scoring in the third inning during the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Sunday, September 27, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Michael Chisholm/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

By September 18th of the 2026 regular season, the Cincinnati Reds were long toast. They were 10 games under the .500 mark and a lock to finish dead last in the five-team National League Central division, and the final home game of the year was just two days away.

You will not be blamed if you had long checked out by that point. If you had, though, you likely missed that the Reds picked up utility infielder Oswaldo Cabrera off waivers from the New York Yankees, which they did with just 9 games remaining in their season.

Cabrera, to his credit, turned his limited opportunities into something worthwhile. He went 4 for 13 and even swiped a bag, doing so while pinch hitting, playing some 3B, and even getting limited run out in LF. That versatility has become his calling card as he enters his age-28 season as the bat – which once showed promise during a rookie campaign in the Bronx back in 2022 – simply hasn’t managed to materialize much.

Part of why New York was willing to waive him when he did was due to his pending trip through the arbitration process for the first time this winter. That means a raise off the league-minimum salary, and if a player truly isn’t in a team’s plans for those years they’d obviously prefer to focus those funds elsewhere. For Cabrera and the Reds, though, there was seemingly a match on September 18th that officially remains relevant today.

That’s because the player and the team skipped formalities and went ahead with an agreement for a contract for 2027. The Reds themselves announced the move on Thursday afternoon, with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon later adding that the deal includes a $1 million base salary with up to $200K in bonuses.

Cabrera, a switch hitter, literally has played everywhere except behind the plate. If the bat can be anywhere as low as perhaps twice that of Ke’Bryan Hayes, that’s a valuable piece – especially since he typically plays pretty decently at most of those spots. As 26th men on the roster go, that’s a pretty solid piece, especially since he comes in with zero expectations of getting regular PA at this point of his career.

He even has one option remaining, per Roster Resource. So the Reds can option him back to AAA Louisville if, say, Juan Brito outplays him for the team’s utility role or if they want to carry a boppin’ thunderbat as last man on the bench instead of a glove-first guy.

It’s the sexiest move the Cincinnati Reds have made all offseason. It’s the only move the Cincinnati Reds have made all offseason.

MLB created a Dodgers monster and they want the players to help slay it

HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 29: MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and Houston Astros Owner Jim Crane speak before Game One of the American League Wild Card Series presented by AbbVie between the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images

As we near the conclusion of the 2026 major league baseball season, the powers that run the game and the players who play it are gearing up for another major confrontation this offseason. The new collective bargaining agreement is going to be an ugly and probably a painfully long process before the parties come to an agreement.

The league and owners are already doing a great job focusing the competitive balance issues in the game as an argument for a salary cap. The league has been using the Dodgers argument to push for a salary cap for a year already. They’re doing everything possible to define this in the public consciousness as a problem at the top of the sport, rather than one with the host of cheap, ineffective owners around the league who can’t compete the way the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Cleveland Guardians can. Don’t be suckered in. If there’s a competitive balance problem, it has a lot more to do with cheap, incompetent owners stuffing their pockets for years without making the slightest effort to try and win something. That’s not to say that the Dodgers situation hasn’t gotten out of hand, but that’s a unique problem to one team caused largely by the league itself rather than anything to do with the players’ union.

Obviously this is shaping up to be a public relations war as always. The league very much wants to paint the Dodgers back-to-back World Series titles as an existential crisis for the sport rather than the actual problem of owners who refuse to compete. Many fans would agree because the Dodgers side of the issue is more in the public eye, but they don’t want you to think about the fact that they created this monster themselves and are now asking the players to solve it for them. They don’t want you to think about this from the other side, which is that cheap owners are the real problem. And, rather insultingly, Commissioner Rob Manfred, the league and the owners are busy pretending that the fans are overwhelmingly calling for the Dodgers to be reined in, while they have no trouble ignoring fan complaints about ticket costs, concession prices, the endless flow of gambling and sexual performance pill advertisements, and the fact that you have to subscribe to numerous different streaming services just to watch the postseason. Their interest in being responsive to the fanbase is entirely dependent on whether it serves the owners as well.

The first thing we need to understand here is that MLB has never actually wanted real competitive balance, just enough of a semblance of it to keep fans interested. The league and owners want to make money. The same owners and league executives complaining about the Dodgers and how this is all so unfair turn right around late in the season and start rooting for a Dodgers-Yankees World Series. Right now they’re dreading a Brewers-Rays matchup. They want those ratings. They want that revenue. There’s a divide among owners there that is going to be a major stumbling block to any major changes even before we get to convincing the MLBPA. Everyone wants competitive balance until a Rays-Brewers World Series produces the lowest ratings of all time. Of course, to hardcore baseball fans, that matchup sounds awesome, but that is never the league’s concern. What they want, and what the players fear, is a cost controlled free agent market.

Second, the league and the owners created the Dodgers as an issue. They want the players to agree to solve it. The framing makes it pretty hard to trust that competitive balance is their motivation. The lack of balance comes much more from the fact that a lot of teams are poorly run by meddling owners, and others just don’t want to risk their profits to actually try and win in the postseason. The lack of balance comes because most of the lowest payroll teams in the league could spend 50 percent more on payroll than they normally do for a season or two and try and win. They just refuse to do it. Sure, there are some markets that are always going to be difficult, but those are exceptions rather than the rule, and one of those tough markets is in Tampa Bay, which continues to produce competitive teams despite their revenue/payroll issues.

The Tigers are probably a middle tier baseball market, and Chris Ilitch was able to spend $220M this year. Sure they can’t do that year in and year out without losing a fair amount of money, but any of these teams routinely spending around $90-110M a year could push in and take their shots when a window opens. They just don’t want to. Instead, they pocket their revenue sharing dollars and complain about the Dodgers.

The Dolans, owners of the Cleveland Guardians, are a perfect example. They have a great organization built up that is consistently competitive. They aren’t incompetent at all. Any time in the past five years, they could’ve tried to take advantage and spend bigger on some short term deals to actually do something in the postseason. They just refuse to risk any of their profits to do so. In their case, the dilution of the regular season and expansion of the postseason has allowed them to regularly compete and maintain a relevant team without ever really spending in free agency.

Major League Baseball has already made massive changes to the game over the last 50 years to give more teams a shot. They added the league championship series, then the divisional round with the addition of the wild card game, and eventually that kept expanding into two Wild Card series per league. Six teams per league now make the postseason, compared to one from each league originally. If that’s not enough opportunity added, I’m going to suggest that some teams and owners are just really bad at this and are using the Dodgers as an excuse. A salary cap would just be a reward for their mediocrity. The Brewers, the Rays, and the Guardians are all glaring examples that say you don’t need to spend like the Blue Jays or the Yankees or Dodgers in order to put a top team on the field. You just have to be really good at the job.

Third, the entire argument from the league basically comes down to the complaint that the Dodgers are gobbling up the top players in free agency and on the trade market. That’s certainly true, but again this is a specific problem created by the league itself. It was the league, in agreement with bankruptcy proceedings, that handed the Dodgers an exemption that saves them from a significant chunk of the revenue sharing payments other top payroll teams in major markets have to pay into the league’s revenue sharing system. That gives them a big edge even over the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and other major market clubs.

That exemption was granted to the Dodgers when the franchise went through bankruptcy proceedings back in 2012. The arrangement between MLB and the bankruptcy court capped their local TV revenue that would be included in the revenue sharing calculation at $85M originally, and now it’s $135M. Their yearly local television revenue is estimated at well over $300M, and all but that $135 million is exempt from revenue sharing. While other major market, revenue paying teams put 48 percent of their local tv revenue into the revenue sharing system, the Dodgers have a lot of that money protected by the bankruptcy arrangement 14 years ago. This saves them around $60M compared to the amount the Dodgers, Red Sox, and other major market teams have to pay into revenue sharing.

Between that exemption, and the Dodgers being allowed to defer a billion dollars in salary as of this writing, the league had a big hand in creating this monster. And the league’s bottom line loves the Dodgers dynasty. Now they say they want the players to agree to a salary cap, which the players union has always resisted, and bail the league out of its own mess.

There’s also a pretty good argument that the recent Dodgers run is a bit of an anomaly. Sure, they’ve won back-to-back World Series titles and three of the last seven, but now much of their money is tied up in players who are already past their prime and getting worse. Owner Mark Walter is currently accused of a widespread insurance fraud scheme, though not charged criminally with anything yet, and is being sued left and right.

That billion in deferred dollars is also owed to players who are moving into their mid-30’s. Should Shohei Ohtani never fully return to form, that roster suddenly looks like an extremely bloated 85-90 win team. They’re currently getting torched by a Brewers team with a $146M payroll in the NLCS, and it’s worth remembering that they only won the 2025 World Series by a half inch as Isaiah Kiner-Falefa was thrown out at the plate as the potential game winning run in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7. They haven’t exactly just shredded the competition in the postseason. Baseball has ways of balancing things out on its own.

The league would also like to avoid a full accounting of how we got here by convincing everyone that this is all just about the fans and giving them what they want. Manfred continues to spin the yarn that the league has conducted expansive polling as to whether fans want a salary cap or not. As far as any reporting out there can find, no such surveys have ever been conducted by the league. Instead they point to a small poll conducted by MLB Trade Rumors at one point to pretend this is all the fans’ idea. Fans do want something done to address payroll disparities, but the league has never shown much interest in asking them.

This is all self-serving lip service, and it’s setting a pretty poor tone for negotiations this offseason. The fans do want better competitive balance. That’s not a reach, but in pinning it on the fans, Manfred is avoiding conversations about how the league let things get this far in the first place and trying to position himself as a third party arbitor who just wants to give the fans what they want and reign in those terrible Dodgers. This posture isn’t great for convincing a naturally skeptical players’ union that this is all in good faith.

Of course, leaving aside the comments from the Commissioner, the union still has the central problem to contend with as they make their own case. Why should fans care how much the players are making? If a salary cap curtails some of the top shelf salaries, so what? Their PR challenges here are extensive as well.

Fans who feel that way have a fair point. We don’t even really have that much of a dog in this fight. If the owners get a salary cap in place, they aren’t going to do nice things for us like lower prices or make the game more accessible. The players aren’t hurting for money while the rest of the economy continues to sputter and the average fan is under significant economic pressure. Few want to hear the players’ arguments for protecting their profits either. We just want baseball without all this drama, without a handful of teams just dominating the sport year after year.

However, it’s the league and the owners risking the 2027 season here, and Rob Manfred and the owners clearly want and need your support. This is why they’re everywhere trying to set the parameters of the debate as being about the Dodgers and a salary cap, rather than cheap owners and a strong salary floor. The players would probably sign essentially a renewal of the current CBA and go about their business. There’s just no way they’re going to agree to changes that potentially cut further into their share of revenue just to help rich owners make more under the guise of competitive balance.

Players have seen their share of the pie decrease little by little, year by year for two decades now. Sure, the top players can still go get their big contract in their late 20’s and early 30’s, but the number of teams willing to pay those contracts to older players continues to decline. The vast majority of major league players will spend a few years in the league, and never make more than the league minimum. That’s a really good wage at $780,000 for a full season. Even after taxes and agent fees, anyone playing full time is going to take home a half million dollars. But most players are not coming anywhere close to accruing generational wealth here either. There’s just no good argument that they should give up more of their share to the owners.

Ultimately, the league and owners probably know they’re going to fail here. They’re pushing the same narrative they’ve been selling for a quarter century now, and the players have always completely rebuffed any kind of hard salary cap. They gave in on the luxury tax threshold in the late 90’s, which is essentially a soft cap that hasn’t worked very well, and they learned the lesson as the number of free agent destinations who can and will pay out a big contract declined as most owners refuse to go anywhere near the luxury tax threshold. Tony Clark isn’t leading the MLBPA anymore. Instead they have a veteran labor lawyer and negotiator at the helm again for the first time since Michael Weiner died in 2013.

Personally, I don’t see any pressing need for things to change at this point either, except with regard to the deferred money. Clean up these specific Dodgers issues and this isn’t such a big issue. The problem with the Dodgers has much more to do with their special exemption and the amounts of money that are allowed to be deferred, and as that roster ages, some of the problem may just solve itself. If there’s a hard salary cap, then the Dodgers’ ownership group is just going to take home a lot more money, and while revenue sharing will spread the wealth, some of it won’t be accessible to the current revenue sharing protocols. They’re still going to be a good team for the foreseeable future because they draft, develop, and trade players as well as anyone in the league.

The other side of the equation is far more important. The real push should be for a salary floor, whereby cheap owners can no longer just pocket revenue sharing funds and continue to spend minimally on their team’s success. Chris Ilitch, despite his flaws, put $220M into the Detroit Tigers’ Opening Day payroll this season. The Tigers are hardly a big market team, and while they can’t spend like that every year without losing a significant amount of money, it does illustrate that teams at this level of market size can take their shot for a year or two before shedding payroll and getting back to yearly profitability.

The ultimate compromise, in theory, that is always floated heading into CBA negotiations is to institute a hard cap and floor system like other major sports have in place. The idea has been floated plenty of times, but to make it work there has to be trust, and a good faith effort on either side. The individual team owners have to be willing to fully open their books to the union, and all revenues current and future, accounted for. If they were willing? Sure, then the players’ share of yearly revenue is fixed at a certain percentage of league earnings, and that number is divided by the 30 teams to reach the general parameters of a reasonable salary cap and floor system. Within that structure, teams then spend as they will.

In the NFL, the current cap is $301.2 million per team, with the floor set at 89 percent of that cap, roughly $268 million, evaluated over multiple seasons to add some flexibility to the process.

The issue for getting to something like that, is that the wealthiest big market teams have to be willing to contribute more of their revenue to the system to make it work for all the small market teams. They also have to continue to spend right up to the cap. So far, most vague early proposals for an MLB cap/floor system contain a far wider disparity between the cap and floor than the NFL has, and it’s just impossible for the players to ever agree to a system with more than enough wiggle room to allow owners to simply cut the players share of the pie.

The league’s initial proposal for a salary cap and floor system beginning in 2027, sets a cap at $245.3 million, while a salary floor would be set at $171.2 million. The eight teams currently over the cap would be required to cut about $578 million in combined salary to comply, while the 12 teams under the floor would have to spend $617 million in additional salary to comply.

That sounds alright on the surface. Overall team payrolls would increase by $39 million, which would be good for the players. The problem is that you need those eight teams to continue spending the maximum amount. If over time they choose not to do so and all these teams are spending closer to the floor than the cap, then the players share of revenue actually declines. Moving those cap and floor levels much closer together is probably a must for something like this to ever work out. Otherwise the league is asking players to risk another major hit to their share of the money.

That point is key, because it reflects the split desires of Manfred and the owners. They still want the big spenders to exist and for the major markets to have that competitive advantage. At the same time, they want to bring the range closer together at least. And they want the players to buy into this idea and trust that they’re not going to end up hurting their own earnings in the process. They want a lot, and some of those desires remain at odds with others.

For now, it just feels like there are too many moving pieces to make this happen. We’ll have to see how much will actually exists behind the PR push. Do the big market ownership groups, who have a lot of sway in the room as it were, want to have to compete on a level playing ground? Are they willing to sacrifice more of their hugely outsized revenue streams compared to other teams to help pay even more of other teams’ payrolls and bring real parity to baseball? It’s hard to believe they wouldn’t put up a fight, splitting the owners.

Does the league even really want to go far enough for this to work? For all the fuss about competitive balance, the league knows that revenues in the postseason are far better when the big market teams with tons of history and star caliber players are in the mix.

There’s a ton to deal with just on the league and ownership side, before we even get to convincing the players union to go along with any of this and addressing all their concerns as well.

Is Rob Manfred the guy to pull this all together and leave this mark on the history of the game, as seems to be his goal? It’s hard to buy the idea that he is, and the fact that he continues to frame this as a problem of the big spenders and the Dodgers in particular, rather than all the ownership groups that simply pocket the cash and never try to win, isn’t a very good start in my opinion. There needs to be a lot of trust and open conversation to make a massive structural change to the game. Manfred has done nothing to earn the levels of trust and goodwill required to get this accomplished.

And perhaps the salary cap/floor isn’t even the goal this time around. Maybe they still view it as a long-term project. Scott Boras certainly is going about his business as though there’s no salary cap and floor system coming, and few in the game are better positioned to read the tea leaves. It’s entirely possible that Manfred and the owners are pushing this so hard in a public relations campaign just to set up some other set of fallback proposals that are the real goal here.

All we as baseball fans know for sure, is that this is going to be a pretty miserable offseason, and there’s nothing to do but try to read the tea leaves and see how it all shakes out in the end.

Notes of Dave Dombrowski’s Press Conference

It took roughly two weeks for Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski to address the media after Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves ended their season. Dombrowski answered questions for slightly less than an hour on wide ranging issues between Trea Turner, the coaching staff, and the farm system. They really like Bryan Rincon.

Anyway, here are some notes/takeaways to gather as the Phillies head into what looks to be a long winter. Here is a link to the press conference if you want to watch it yourself.

The Phillies want to improve the defense… but also not really

Right away, Dombrowski addressed that Trea Turner would need to improve at shortstop but the plan is to keep him there to start 2027. Dombrowski also mentioned that Turner would prefer staying on the infield so the most likely spot he would move to is second base. He has played a career 729.1 innings at second base, grading out as a plus defender. He has not played there since the 2021 season after the Dodgers traded for him.

It’s probably the path of least resistance given everything. Two of the Phillies’ best prospects, Aidan Miller and Bryan Rincon, play shortstop but it’s hard to imagine either of them being ready right away. Miller only played in 4 minor league games this year and needed to undergo a procedure in June for his recurring back issues.

Rincon took a big step forward in AA, more than doubling is isolated power from a year ago and would play a good shortstop in the majors on day one. However, it’s unclear how much the AA hitting environment inflated his power surge and he did not play in AAA yet.

Realistically, the Phillies would have to acquire someone outside the organization if Trea Turner wasn’t an option to open the season at shortstop. This path crosses that off, for now, and gives them flexibility for later. Will they actually go down that path in the middle of the season if they have to? Who knows.

Dombrowski sounded pretty confident in Justin Crawford and Derek Hill running the center field platoon again and that they think Crawford can improve out there defensively.

“I think Crawford and Hill are probably a really good combo as long as Crawford keeps growing”

While he was a rookie, Crawford graded out as one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball. Among 29 players who played at least 500 innings in center field, Crawford ranked 24th in Outs Above Average and 27th in Defensive Runs Saved.

Both Dombrowski and Don Mattingly stressed improving the defense but if they’re not moving two of their biggest problems, how much better can they get?

Improving the lineup

Dave Dombrowski made it clear that they need to improve the offense and specifically said their only two above-average hitters were Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Some of that will come from additions and some of it could be from “better decisions from an offensive perspective”.

They’re also confident Turner can bounce back offensively but he needs to improve his swing.

Dombrowski also mentioned the possibility of Aidan Miller specifically:

“I’m not going to put it on his back but we think a guy like Aidan Miller is a really really good player”

When it comes to making bigger splashes, Dombrowski did not close the door on spending for high impact options but it’s probably not going to be the only way he addresses the offense.

“We have a lot of high-salaried guys at this point, so I think you have to figure out which way you go. I don’t think it necessarily means signing all high-salaried guys but I do think we have the flexibility”

The Phillies offense ranked 28th in wRC+ last season and they just fired hitting coach Kevin Long so there are going to have to be many different ways to address the issue. All of them might be in play.

Bullpen Infrastructure

They have Jhoan Duran as the set closer, that’s not changing. They know they need to address the bullpen but also like some of the players they have.

“We do like [Jonathan] Bowlan. We like [Alex] McFarlane a great deal. And [Caleb] Killian we like so we do have a good foundation with the closer that we have”

Jhoan Duran, Alex McFarlane, and Jonathan Bowlan make up a good starting point for building a bullpen and while Caleb Kilian struggled, his season was cut short because of an oblique injury.

His answer about Orion Kerkering was less encouraging. It’s not hard to read between the lines here.

“He has the ability to turn it around. He’s got a good fastball, got a good sweeper, they’ve given him the splitter. He didn’t perform to those capabilities. Am I confident? I’m not going to go in there saying he’s going to be our setup guy or seventh inning guy. Do I think he can turn it around? I think he can but we’ll have to wait and see on that.”

Who could return

Tim Mayza agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.75 million to return to the club and maybe even started warming up in the bullpen to celebrate. The Phillies will have to rebuild their left handed relief depth and start that off by bringing back Mayza, who was Mattingly’s most stable southpaw over the entire season.

The only other internal free agent Dombrowski spoke glowingly about for a potential reunion was Luis Arraez.

“We like him. He did a good job. Second in the league in hitting… he’s a player that we like and did a nice job for us”

Arraez hit .310 with a .765 OPS overall as an everyday second baseman but he took a significant step back after the Phillies acquired him. You shouldn’t judge a player off only two months but he’s a tough player for this team to project.

Arraez turned himself into an everyday second baseman but was unplayable there prior to 2026. He played first base his entire stint with the Padres and for most of his career. If he cannot hold up defensively up the middle, the Philadelphia Phillies do not have the option of moving him over with Bryce Harper on the roster. Can’t DH him either with Kyle Schwarber.

The catcher situation

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but they want JT Realmuto to catch less games. I know, it’s crazy.

Dombrowski did mention creating more days off in general for veteran players and even wants Kyle Schwarber to play 30 games at first base next year.

For the catcher situation, they have to bet on JT Realmuto but need to play him less. They’re acknowledging why he hasn’t been afforded more days off. The backup options have not been good enough to justify it. They’re both great defensively, especially Rafael Marchán but they need more.

“We didn’t get enough offensive contributions from that spot and that’s something I need to look at”

“Could it be one of those guys? Perhaps but I also would look to see what other opportunities may be out there”

Don Mattingly and the coaching staff

Don Mattingly is no longer the interim manager or bench coach, announcing his two-year agreement to be the Phillies manager yesterday.

Dombrowski really liked the job Don Mattingly did and spoke about it multiple times. He gave a more in-depth answer about what Mattingly did to impact the squad later in the presser.

“It’s hard to find people more knowledgeable about baseball than Don Mattingly. He’s managed for a long time. He’s got a pulse for what takes place. I think he’s on top of issues. He’s a good communicator with the staff. Players respect him a great deal. He’s knows what it takes to be successful… He has a lot of fire in his belly too.”

The Phillies fired Bobby Dickerson and replaced him with former Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, who will also serve as the third-base coach. There was no announcement about what this meant for Anthony Contreras, who became the third base coach after Rob Thomson was fired and Dusty Wathan became Mattingly’s new bench coach.

They will also need a new hitting coach after firing Kevin Long, who is expected to receive interest from other clubs immediately.

While Long’s tenure was generally very successful, the Phillies had one of the worst lineups in baseball with significant steps back from several players. Trea Turner regressed hard, so did JT Realmuto. Brandon Marsh fell off a cliff in the second half of the season as one of Long’s best successes following a trade from the Los Angeles Angels at the 2022 trade deadline. The only hitter who was better from his 2025 season was Bryce Harper, everyone else took steps back.

Is that entirely on the hitting coach, especially for a veteran team? Almost certainly not, but a new voice and new ideas is something the players probably need. Both things can be true.

Farm System

Dave Dombrowski spoke highly of the Phillies’ farm system and the players they have coming. They already saw Andrew Painter take steps forward as the season went on and Justin Crawford never got demoted. He spoke glowingly about Aidan Miller and thinks he has the chance to be a “special” player.

Gage Wood and Bryan Rincon were other names he specifically mentioned in the presser. Francisco Renteria was also mentioned but he’s far away from the big leagues.

There was a lot covered in the presser and there are a lot of questions moving forward. They need a new hitting coach, need a new starting outfielder, need a starting infielder, need help in the bullpen. There is a lot that will be coming this winter.

Masters of Deception: Parker Messick, Nick Martinez, and others are leading the changeup renaissance

Major League Baseball is a fastball league. Velocity is all the rage, and pitchers up and down a roster are throwing harder than ever.

Fastball variations (four-seam, sinker, cutter) accounted for 55% of all pitches thrown in baseball this season, and the average four-seam velocity was 94.7 mph, which is up from 93 mph just a decade ago. Going further, 46% of four-seamers reached 95 mph or higher this season. It was just 24% in 2015, and 9.3% of all fastballs this season were 98 mph or harder, up from 2.8% a decade ago.

So, with hitters gearing up to hit high velocity more and more, the changeup is having its moment as a natural counterpunch.

"I feel like every couple of years there's another pitch out there that is the next pitch to get hitters out," explained Royals starter Michael Wacha at this year's All-Star Game. "A couple of years ago, it was the sweeper, then the high fastball, but hitters make adjustments, and they start to cover those pitches, and it always trends into 'Hey, what's the next pitch?' You saw it last year in the World Series, that split fingers and changeups were big-time pitches in that series, so, yeah, it might be making a little comeback. I've always been a fastball-changeup guy, so I've always kind of relied on it."

The emphasis on the fastball from hitters is part of what makes the changeup so impactful.

"It's one of those things that looks like a heater coming out of the hand, and a lot of hitters want to hit a heater," explained Guardians ace Parker Messick. "It looks like a heater, and then the bottom falls out. It's a push-pull, change-of-speed type of pitch, so I think it creates a bit of swing-and-miss, a bit of weak contact."

Since the changeup is a natural counter to the fastball, we've seen its usage increase in 2026 more than any other pitch in the league, other than the sweeper, which is a lower-usage pitch overall.

Pitch2025 usage %2026 usage %Change (%)
Four-seam31.830.5-4.1
Sinker15.416.6+7.8
Slider14.313.1-8.4
Changeup10.311.2+8.7
Cutter7.58.0+6.7
Sweeper7.68.3+9.2
Curveball6.76.4-4.5
Splitter3.33.2-3.0

Not only is changeup usage up, but it's proving to be one of the most impactful pitches in the league, both in terms of weak contact allowed and swinging strikes.

PitchOPS againstBarrel% againstHard-Hit% againstSwStr%Contact%
Splitter0.5765.632.616.767.5
Changeup0.6185.631.814.970.4
Sweeper0.6317.630.413.270.5
Curveball0.6357.436.211.771
Slider0.6718.136.615.368.4
Four-seam0.7689.744.39.181.4
Sinker0.7766.342.45.388.5
Cutter0.8058.137.210.179.5

League-wide, the change-up's 5.6% barrel rate allowed is tied for the lowest mark of any pitch, and its 31.8% hard-hit rate allowed is second-best, only trailing the sweeper. Its .618 OPS against is second only to the splitter, while the four-seamer has a mark of .768. The changeup also allowed the third-lowest contact rate at 70.4%, and had the third-highest swinging strike rate at 14.9%. The only pitches league-wide that got more swinging strikes in 2026 than the changeup were splitters and sliders (not sweepers).

That's a key part of the changeup's value. Not only does it induce weak contact, but it misses bats. Not only can pitchers pound the strike zone with it, but they can have it fall below the zone for whiffs. In fact, the in-zone swinging strike rate on changeups league-wide is 14.9%, which is the same as the swinging strike rate on changeups out of the zone. Unlike pitches like the four-seamer and sweeper, the changeup does not rely on being thrown out of the zone to induce whiffs.

"Also, a changeup is a pitch where there are so many different movement profiles," explained Tampa Bay Rays starter Nick Martinez. "There's just so many variables that play into what can be a good changeup, and so it's hard for hitters to adjust for that."

One of the newest movement profiles is the kick-change. When I wrote about the pitch back in May, I mentioned that a kick change is a variation of a changeup that uses a two-seam grip primarily and some spike from a bent finger to create more depth than a normal changeup. The “kick” in kick-change refers to “kicking the axis of the ball down,” through pressure from the ring finger. The added depth generated on the kick-change means that you’re creating splitter-like movement on a pitch that has a changeup-like grip and spin.

"I don't know [if it's a changeup]," laughed Wacha. "It's not really a splitter either. I would say it's more of a changeup than a splitter, but also you're just using physics in your favor there."

Another reason the kick-change has become more popular is that it’s easy for supinators to use. As detailed in this video, supination is when a pitcher releases a pitch with their thumb pointing up at the sky, while pronation is when the thumb turns over to point more towards the ground. Most pitchers identify as either “pronators” or “supinators” based on what feels natural or physically possible with their wrist movement. If a pitcher is a pronator by nature, then it may be hard for them to throw a pitch like a sweeper, which requires supination. Meanwhile, supinators are generally more comfortable gripping the outside of the baseball and are better at throwing breaking balls.

The popularity of the kick-change has meant that pitchers who may not have been able to find a changeup grip they liked before can now add a pitch to their arsenal. As most pitchers will tell you, adding any pitch into your mix can be a major benefit.

"If you can add to your repertoire, I think that's a good thing for sure," explained Wacha. "You see guys have success and see what makes them successful, like 'Hey, this is that sweeper, this is that cutter, this is that changeup, and it's like, 'Hey, I could add that to my repertoire to help it get better and help my other pitches get better."

Whether you want to call the kick-change a changeup or not, harder and flatter changeups are becoming more en vogue in Major League Baseball.

20252026Change
Changeups thrown73,260.0079,838.00+6,578.00
Average changeup speed (mph)85.8586.03+0.18
Average changeup induced break (in)4.474.15-0.32
% of changeups over 85 mph63.7665.41+1.65
% of changeups under 2 in break30.7533.42+2.67
% of changeups over 85 mph AND under 2 in22.2824.13+1.85

Across the league, the average changeup is getting harder and flatter. The increased velocity makes some sense because fastballs are also getting harder and pitchers want to throw their changeup with the same arm speed as their fastball to create that deception. The flatter movement profile could be a result of the increased velocity, but it also could make the pitch more impactful to same-handed hitters.

In the past, pitchers have been hesitant to throw changeups to same-handed hitters because the movement profile is more of a soft pitch that runs away from an opposite-handed hitter. You don't want to leave a changeup over the plate, so if you throw it to a same-handed hitter, you need to start it inside. If you have too much movement, you run the risk of having the pitch hit them. The harder changeup with less horizontal break makes that a little less likely, and we've seen many teams, like the Rays, increase their usage of same-handed changeups this year, adding another wrinkle to make the pitch more impactful.

"I just feel like it's such a feel pitch," said Red Sox rookie Jake Bennett. "If you don't have that good feel for it, you don't want to leave something up and have it run into their barrel. But if you've got the command for it, being able to throw it almost back foot [to same-handed hitters] is great."

This season, Bennett's 19.2% swinging-strike rate on his changeup was about five points above the league average for changeups and nearly double his four-seamer’s 11.2% swinging strike rate.

With the increased use of the kick-change, we're still parsing through data because it's hard to know which pitches that are classified as changeups use what grips, but we do know that changeups over 86 mph (the league average for a changeup) have led to more whiffs.

2026
% of changeups 86+ mph55.15
SwStr% 86+ mph AND under 2 in break15.96
SwStr% under 86 mph AND under 2 in break14.64
SwStr% under 86 mph AND 2+ in break15.11
Same-pitcher difference in SwStr% (86+ minus under 86 mph, pts)1.10

Fast, flat changeups missed more bats this season. Changeups thrown at 86 mph or harder with less than two inches of break posted a 16% swinging-strike rate, compared with 14.6% for changeups under 86 mph with similar break. If a pitcher threw a slower changeup with more break, it missed a few more bats, but the 15.1% mark was still below that of the harder changeups. When you split it up between individual pitchers, the gap between the swinging strike rate on their harder changeups and slower changeups was over 1%.

Another big benefit to the changeup is that it tends to be count-agnostic. The swinging strike rate on a changeup is consistent whether the pitch was thrown ahead or behind in the count, to lefties or righties, in the zone or out of it: "Just being able to throw it any count, I feel like that's why it helps," explained Bennett. "For two strikes, I try to throw it on top of the plate, and then if I'm behind the count, and I try to steal a strike or something, I just shift the sights up a little bit and try and get it in zone."

Swinging Strike Rate by Count

PitchPitcher ahead (more strikes)Even count (0-0, 1-1, 2-2)Pitcher behind (more balls)Full count (3-2)
Changeup14.6914.7215.6115.90
Four-seam11.478.567.479.40
Sinker6.235.025.046.64
Slider16.6714.5114.6217.54
Sweeper14.8412.0712.2215.96
Curveball14.7910.009.7413.95

The swinging-strike rate on the changeup when a pitcher is ahead in the count is almost identical to when the pitcher is behind in the count. Interestingly, the swinging strike rate on a changeup is highest when a pitcher is behind in the count or in a full count. Undoubtedly, this is because these are typical fastball counts, and when the hitter is sitting on a fastball, they're more likely to be early on a changeup and swing through the pitch.

Many pitchers made a good living in 2026 by getting swings and misses on their changeup. Parker Messick was tied with Angels' starter Walbert Ureña for the second-most strikeouts in baseball on his changeup at 71. Those names being together is a beautiful encapsulation of how varied the changeup can be. Messick's changeup is 86 mph with over 15 inches of horizontal movement and essentially no vertical movement. Ureña has a 91 mph changeup with almost 18 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical break or rise.

Yet, changeup success by count is not limited to swinging strike rate. It's also an impactful pitch in terms of weak contact allowed, regardless of the count.

wOBA By Count

PitchPitcher ahead (more strikes)Even count (0-0, 1-1, 2-2)Pitcher behind (more balls)Full count (3-2)
Changeup0.2200.2800.4100.390
Four-seam0.2300.3300.5000.390
Sinker0.2600.3400.4400.380
Slider0.2300.3000.4700.360
Sweeper0.2100.2900.4700.370
Curveball0.2300.2900.5200.390

Now, when a pitcher is behind in the count, the wOBA against a changeup goes up considerably, but that's the case for every pitch. Hitter's counts tend to favor hitters. When a pitcher is behind, the wOBA against a changeup is .410, but that's better than .500 for four-seamers, .440 for sinkers, and .470 for sliders. It's not a perfectly like-for-like comparison, because pitchers throw more fastballs for strikes when behind, but it's an indication that the higher wOBA number on the changeup when a pitcher is behind is not a negative factor against the offering.

"Just the change in speeds and the movement profile that I have," said Martinez about why his changeup is so effective. "My ability to command it in and out of the zone, and having confidence to throw it in any count, working the fastball off the changeup, the curveball, the slider, whatever pitch I can mix and match to get to that changeup." Martínez's 15.5% swinging-strike rate on his changeup was just above the league average (14.3%), but his 23.2% hard-hit was almost 9% below the league average for changeup, and his wOBA allowed was .052 better.

Across the league, in an even count, the changeup has the lowest wOBA allowed of any pitch in baseball and has the second-lowest wOBA allowed when a pitcher is ahead in the count. Wacha has a .251 wOBA on his changeup, which is far better than the league’s average mark. His 15.4% swinging strike on the chanegup is slightly above the league’s 14.3% mark, but his 25.5% hard-hit rate allowed on it was elite.

"I personally feel the changeup is one of those pitches that is always going to be a successful pitch in the major leagues, simply because there's no pitching machine that throws a changeup," explained Martinez. "Nowadays, you have pitching machines that throw curveballs, cutters, and sliders, and you can get repetitions off those pitches. But throwing a changeup in batting practice, you really need that speed difference, you know, established with your fastball, especially in my case, to be able to make it effective."

YearAvg four-seam (mph)Four-seams 95+ mph (%)Four-seams 98+ mph (%)SwStr% on 95+ four-seamsChangeup SwStr% (all)
201592.9624.22.89.919.87
201993.3126.22.711.2911.15
202394.0635.95.210.8114.43
202494.2138.75.511.0614.25
202594.4041.87.210.4214.33
202694.7346.49.310.7114.68

That relationship between the fastball and changeup is crucial. As fastball velocity has increased, the swinging strike rate on high-velocity four-seamers has stayed relatively flat; however, the swinging strike rate on changeups has increased as hitters gear up for the increased fastball velocity. Messick and Bennett are pitchers who thrive off playing their four-seamer off their changeup.

Messick throws his four-seamer and changeup over 65% of the time. Both those pitches are well above the league average, with his four-seamer posting a .252 wOBA against (the league average is .345) and his changeup registering a .241 mark (the league average was .284. His swinging strike rates on both pitches were also above league average. 11.2% and 18.7% swinging strikes vs. 9.2% and 14.9% league. Jake Bennett throws either a four-seamer or changeup 63% of the time and has not been shy about the fact that his changeup success is predicated on his fastball location.

"I feel like, at least for me, the changeup tunnels off my fastball very well. I have a good four-seamer that plays at the top of the zone, and then just to be able to throw the changeup off of that and throw it below the zone, I feel like that's where I get a lot of my success."

Funnily enough, that last idea Bennett mentions about tunnelling off the fastball might be the reason that the changeup continues to befuddle people who create pitching models, which may also impact why the value of the changeup is not properly accounted for.

"The changeup depends on deception maybe most of all the pitches," said Eno Sarris, who helped create the Stuff+ model used by FanGraphs. "It's supposed to look like a fastball. Unfortunately for stuff models, I think 'looking like a fastball' includes data that we don't have access to. Things like arm speed, in particular, would probably help stuff models capture a good changeup better."

"I think the speed differential and movement are key," described Wacha. "You know, hopefully I get it coming out looking like a fastball with the arm speed, keeping the same arm speed as a fastball. Hopefully that speed differential and the movement on it can fool them or get some weak contact."

Wacha is one of the pitchers who has a changeup Stuff+ likes. His 130 Stuff+ grade on his changeup was second best in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings. Martinez ranked 9th on that list with a 109 Stuff+, and Messick was down at 18th with a 103 Stuff+, which is slightly above the 100 score for a league-average offering. Ureña's changeup had a 98 Stuff+ despite its success, and Bennett's changeup had an 87 Stuff+ grade, which was 66th among 141 qualified pitchers.

"Often the stats and data are behind when there's this much disconnect with common sense and first principles," explained Sarris.

While it may take the data and pitch models a little bit longer to catch up, pitchers across the league are already seeing that the changeup might be the key to unlocking another level of success in a velocity-driven league.

Harry Ford did not live up to expectations in his first year with the Washington Nationals

DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 23: Harry Ford #17 of the Washington Nationals looks on while batting during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on September 23, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. The Nationals defeated the Tigers 4-2. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The first major trade Paul Toboni made as Nationals POBO was to acquire Harry Ford in exchange for Jose A. Ferrer. Ford was expected to emerge as the Nats catcher of the future without an elite backstop like Cal Raleigh blocking him. However, this season did not go according to plan for the 23 year old catcher.

It was a bit of a surprise when Ford did not make the team out of camp. Clearly, the Nats thought he needed more time in the minors. Despite that, I still expected Ford to quickly show he belonged in the big leagues. That did not happen though, as Ford struggled mightily in AAA to start the year.

This was very surprising given the fact that Ford posted an .868 OPS in AAA last year. To start this season, Ford looked rough at the plate. His power was not showing up and he was striking out more. On May 10th, Ford was hitting .188 with a .557 OPS.

That is not exactly an ideal start to life in a new organization. Outside of his usual plate discipline, Ford just did not look like the player the Nats thought they were getting. Meanwhile, Jose A. Ferrer looked like a borderline elite reliever at the start of the season.

Let’s actually talk a little bit about Ferrer because it provides some important context. Nats fans wondered a lot about what the bullpen would look like with Ferrer. That narrative made a lot of sense at the beginning of the year, but even as Ferrer struggled, fans did not adjust the way they talked about him.

Ferrer’s 4.18 ERA and 4.09 FIP in 73 outings would be an upgrade on most of the guys the Nats had. However, those numbers are mediocre. It is not like Ferrer proved to be some major loss for the Nats this season. Even if things stay the same, a backup catcher for a mediocre reliever is not some awful deal.

Getting back to Ford, he did start to turn the corner in AAA. His OPS rose each month he was in the minors and was over .800 in both June and July. Following Drew Millas’ injury around the All-Star Break, Ford finally got his chance.

When Ford got to the majors, the results were not amazing, but not totally awful either. He only hit .190, but his 14.4% walk rate led to a .664 OPS. Ford struggled with his blocking, but he was not a total disaster defensively with a -2 FRV and a -1 DRS. That is not good by any means, but for a backup catcher, you can do worse.

This will be a big offseason for Ford though. There are a lot of things for him to work on. The biggest point of emphasis needs to be finding his power. In 2025, Ford hit 16 homers and showed solid power. It was not just the homers. Ford’s 88.8 MPH average exit velocity and his 103.4 MPH 90th percentile EV were rock solid.

We did not see that sort of power from him in the minors or the big leagues. In AAA, Ford’s average EV was 85.2 MPH and his EV90 was 101.8. That only got worse when he faced better pitching in the big leagues, with Ford posting an 84.9 MPH average and a 101.2 MPH EV90. To become a starting caliber catcher, that power needs to come back. There were reports that Ford had some nagging shoulder problems this year, so maybe his power will come back with a healthy offseason.

Ford’s super power is his plate discipline. That translated to the big league level, with the Nats catcher only chasing 18.7% of the time. However, with his limited power and mediocre contact skills, it is tough to be a good hitter. We saw some flashes, including a homer against the A’s in one of his first games. However, there was not enough consistency.

With the lower offensive ceiling of the catcher position and Ford’s ability to draw walks, there is a path to success. There is a world where he can be around a league average hitter with solid defense as well. At catcher, that is very valuable. They have very different offensive profiles, but I could see Ford producing like Keibert Ruiz did this year, just with walks carrying his profile.

However, this year did not go as planned and it did lower my view of Ford’s potential. He should be a solid big league catcher, though I am not sure he has the juice to be an above average full time starter. I can see Ruiz and Ford splitting reps and becoming a solid tandem. 

The biggest key to Ford’s success will be recapturing his power stroke. I think he needs to find a way to improve his bat speed this offseason. We saw a lot of Nats hitters swinging faster this year, and hopefully Ford is next. His average bat speed was 69.2 MPH and I thought his swing looked noticeably slow. 

It was a sluggish campaign for Ford, but he still posted 0.4 fWAR and 0.3 bWAR. Even right now, Ford is a decent backup catcher, but we know he can be more than that. Hopefully he can return to form in 2027 and show why Paul Toboni invested heavily into him.

Season Grade: D+/D

Ranking the Rockies, 2026: No. 42, Chad Stevens

DENVER, CO - JUNE 7: Chad Stevens #39 of the Colorado Rockies bats in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field on June 7, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.


No. 42, Chad Stevens (-0.3 rWAR)

During the 2025-26 offseason, the Colorado Rockies were busy trying to fill out the depth of the roster with a variety of minor league signings. Players capable of playing multiple positions while being able to raise the talent level, specifically in Triple-A Albuquerque, were a key component of the first offseason under president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta.

In December, the Rockies signed 27-year-old infielder Chad Stevens to a minor league deal. Stevens ability to play nearly every infield position, along with his  .281/.354/.459 slash over the last two seasons that translated into a 110 wRC+ and 28 stolen bases. Stevens also had a brief five-game stint with the Los Angeles Angels in 2025 where he picked up a pair of singles and seven strikeouts in 14 at-bats.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the Rockies infield situation, the door was wide open for players like Stevens to make an impact and perhaps find a home with the rebuilding Rockies.

In spring training, Stevens made a decent impression. Despite hitting just .200 in 40 at-bats, it was his on-base percentage of .429 along with his 13 walks against 18 strikeouts that must have given the Rockies hope that he could have been a steal of a signing and useful depth piece.

Heading to Triple-A Albuquerque, Stevens settled in nicely with the Isotopes, where he was on fire. Through his first 168 plate appearances, he slashed .362/.435/.523 (.958 OPS) with three homers, 13 doubles and a triple. He also set an Isotopes franchise record on May 19 with his 39-game on-base streak.

When Brenton Doyle was placed on the injured list with an oblique strain on May 21, the Rockies had no choice but to reward Stevens with a call-up to the big leagues, where he started at second base against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Unfortunately, the red-hot bat that Stevens showcased in Albuquerque didn’t carry over to his second big-league stint. He appeared in 16 games and batted .036/.176/.036 in 28 at-bats, collecting just one hit and three RBI while striking out 13 times with five walks. That hit for Stevens came in his second game with the Rockies, meaning he went 0-for-23 over his next 14 games.

While the bat didn’t show up for Stevens, the glove definitely did. Across 78 innings in the field, primarily at second base, he recorded 1 Defensive Runs Saved and had a perfect fielding percentage. In 63 innings at second base, he had 2 DRS as well as 2 Outs Above Average and 2 Fielding Runs Value. Had the offense followed Stevens, he very likely could have gotten more opportunities to utilize his glove to make more stellar plays.

Unfortunately, because of the lack of offense, Stevens was optioned back to Albuquerque when Tyler Freeman came off the concussion list on June 14.

He continued to thrive with the Isotopes through the rest of the season. In the 59 games after his return to Triple-A, Stevens slashed .284/.392/.423 with 10 doubles, four triples, and four home runs with 28 RBI. He also drew 35 walks against 74 strikeouts while collecting 11 stolen bases.

In total, Stevens hit .316/.409/.464 with 23 doubles, five triples and seven home runs in 423 plate appearances over 99 games. He struck out 118 times, but managed 51 walks and was a key contributor to the Isotopes’ improvement as a club this season.

It’s hard to tell what the future holds for Stevens. Should the Rockies retain him on the 40-man roster, he can continue to serve as a utility infield depth piece with minor league options intact and several years of team control. On the other hand, 40-man roster spots are precious, and he may end up on the chopping block if the Rockies decide they want more room to protect players. The glove definitely demands big league opportunities, but the bat needs to follow and replicate some of the success in the minors.


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Kiké Hernández in his feels after Dodgers’ NLCS Game 3 loss: ‘This one sucks’

An image collage containing 3 images, Image 1 shows Close-up of a man wearing a baseball cap, licking his lips with an uncertain expression, Image 2 shows A close-up of a young man wearing a baseball cap backward, with a retail display of baseball memorabilia in the background, Image 3 shows Kiké Hernández holding a baseball bat in a Dodgers uniform

The Dodgers’ Game 3 NLCS loss to the Brewers on Wednesday hit hard for fans and players alike.

Beloved Dodgers utilityman Kiké Hernández seemed to take this loss especially tough, given how he looked when speaking to the media postgame.

“We didn’t expect to be in this situation, this position. But this one sucks,” Hernández said, per Santiago Gil Sam.

Kiké Hernández speaking to the media after the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Game 3 NLCS loss. (X/@sgilsantiago).

“We’ve got to find a way to turn the page quick, because tomorrow is gonna be here pretty fast. And, yeah. We lose, we’re done. So we gotta go on one-game winning streaks for four games in a row and see what happens. But, yeah, this one sucks,” he added.

Hernández’s eyes were noticeably watery throughout the interview, and he looked like he was about to cry when realizing that the Dodgers likely lost their one opportunity to salvage this NLCS.

Kiké Hernández speaking to the media after the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Game 3 NLCS loss. (X/@sgilsantiago).

Hernández doesn’t need to be reminded that history has not boded well for MLB teams down 3-0 in a series. Only one of 43 teams has won a series from this position, and Los Angeles’ uninspired performance to this point doesn’t make it seem like they will be No. 2.

The 35-year-old Hernández hasn’t tallied a hit in five NLCS at-bats. He’ll be a free agent after this season, which could mean Thursday will be his last game wearing a Dodgers uniform.

Perhaps that played in to his emotional reaction to Los Angeles’ Game 3 defeat.

Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Kike Hernandez plays during Game 1 of baseball’s National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, in Milwaukee. AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Teruaki Sato would make a great fit in the Bronx

TOKYO, JAPAN - MARCH 10: Teruaki Sato #7 of Team Japan hits a double in the first inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Czechia and Japan at Tokyo Dome on March 10, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Gene Wang - Capture At Media/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Yankees have a lot of uncertainty at multiple positions heading into the offseason, but there’s one potential newcomer to the league who could solve third base.

MLB insider Jon Heyman reported before the final stretch of the regular season that Teruaki Sato could be a good fit with several MLB clubs, including the Yankees. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman also said that he could be “in play” for the Yankees, though they might want to be confident that he can handle third base.

Sato led the Central League in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization, batting .306 with 39 homers and 106 RBIs, and became the first Hanshin Tigers player in franchise history to win the Triple Crown. The lefty hitter also finished the season with a .991 OPS, 383 OBP, and a .600 slugging percentage, so it’s safe to say that he can easily conquer the Short Porch when the time comes. Once the free agency frenzy starts, there’s no doubt that Sato will be one of the targets that the Yankees should keep an eye on (and we’ll have more to come on him at that time as well).

For some context on how the system works, NPB players who have fewer than nine years of experience can be posted to pursue contracts with MLB clubs during the November 1 to December 5 window. If they don’t sign a contract with a team by the end of the 45 days, they’ll return to the NPB and won’t be eligible for posting until the following season.

The 27-year-old primarily played third base for the Tigers, but he also appeared in right field during the most recent World Baseball Classic. He went 3-for-10 combined through five games in the tournament, recording three doubles with two RBIs before Team Venezuela defeated Team Japan in the quarterfinals.

His versatility could be just what the Yankees need to bolster confidence at third base, especially after the options this season were, to say the least, disappointing. With Rosario entering free agency, fans aren’t eager to have Ryan McMahon in the starting role again, especially since he made little impact on offense and committed costly defensive errors that put the Yankees at risk throughout the postseason. It is at least within the realm of possibility that the Yankees could outright cut ties with McMahon, as well.

Anthony Volpe and José Caballero, who also made appearances at the position this season, are eligible for arbitration, and if either or both end up parting with the pinstripes, it could give the Yankees enough room to give Sato a decent deal — though neither salary figure will be so onerous that it should hamstring a pursuit.

Munetaka Murakami, who played alongside Sato at the World Baseball Classic, was a standout for Team Japan and hit a grand slam to secure their spot in the quarterfinals as the Pool C winners. After witnessing his inspiring success story with the White Sox this season, it’s possible that adding Sato to the Yankees’ roster could reignite a seemingly dying flame in the clubhouse and propel the Yankees to extend their postseason run next year.

Phillies president Dave Dombrowski sends ‘mandatory’ warning to $300 million star Trea Turner

An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows Broadcast journalist Chris Wallace walking in the stands, Image 2 shows Philadelphia Phillies infielder Trea Turner throws the ball
Phillies star

Dave Dombrowski can’t take another seven years of watching Trea Turner handle shortstop like he did in 2026 — likely since that would cost him his job.

The Phillies’ top baseball executive issued a stern warning to the regressing $300 million veteran in his first comments since the team’s season ended in a three-game wild-card loss to the Braves.

“From a defensive perspective, we are very clear. He knows he has to be better at shortstop. And I told him that it’s really mandatory that he’s like that,” Dombrowski said Thursday.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Sunday, April 19, 2026. The Braves defeated the Phillies 4-2. Getty Images

“He feels he can play and if he plays shortstop like he did in ’25, he can play shortstop. But if plays it like he did in ’26, he can’t. He totally understands that.”

He also offered a tepid endorsement for Turner being the team’s Opening Day 2027 shortstop.

“At this point, but we’ll see what happens,” he said. “It’s up to him to show us he can do it and we’ll see — we’ll have fallback opportunities and some of them may come back for the young players we have.”

It’s not a good sign that Turner isn’t even halfway through his 11-year, $300 million pact and discussions are already being had about whether he can still handle the the premium defensive infield position.

Dombrowski said he met with Turner face to face to discuss the matter, and his season overall, for several hours earlier this week.

Turner posted negative marks in both outs above average (OAA) and defensive runs saved (DRS) in his first two seasons with the franchise from 2023-24 before making a stark improvement in 2025.

Phillies infielder Trea Turner (7) throws to second base for an out after fielding a ground ball hit by Braves catcher Drake Baldwin during the second inning in game three of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

He posted plus-2 DRS and plus-16 OAA marks that year.

That uprise lasted just one season, with Turner regressing to minus-17 DRS and minus-8 OAA metrics this past year while committing 21 errors.

With Turner’s struggles standing out, the Phillies recently dismissed infield coach Bobby Dickerson.

Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) fields a ball hit by Atlanta Braves outfielder Mauricio Dubon in the sixth inning during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park in Georgia, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Dombrowski said the team has provided Turner with information they believe can help him, and new third base coach Carlos Mendoza — the former Mets’ skipper — is being tasked with aiding him.

Turner does have experience manning the outfield, but the team is giving him a chance to show that he should remain at shortstop.

“He is very willing to do — if he doesn’t play shortstop — to do what is best for the Philadelphia Phillies organization,” Dombrowski said of the 12-season veteran. “So, that’s how we left it with him and he’s determined to show us he can play it and I said, You have to show it. You cannot play shortstop like he did defensively in ’26 going into ’27.”

Dombrowski praised Turner for owning up to his poor overall season, which also included an uncharacteristic down offensive campaign.

Turner, 33, posted career-lows in batting average (.242), on-base percentage (.297), slugging percentage (.378) and OPT (.675) for any non-rookie season.

He finished fifth in MVP voting in 2025 while logging an .812 OPS.

“Trea does not think he had a good season offensively or defensively. He takes completely accountability on that and is already working on his swing, and I’ve told him to kind of slow down, you don’t have to do it that quickly, make sure he gets with some people,” Dombrowski said.

“I think Trea still has his fast-twitch muscles, he did not have a good year but I think he can bounce back from an offensive perspective, he needs to fix things with his swing.”

Braves seen as “potential fit” for NPB pitcher Hiromi Itoh

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 14: Hiromi Itoh #14 of Team Japan pitches in the sixth inning during the game between Venezuela and Japan at loanDepot park on March 14, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Gene Wang - Capture At Media/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The offseason is here and plenty of folks have opinions on what the Atlanta Braves should do during the offseason. Because there’s no such thing as having enough pitching and the fact that Braves President/GM Alex Anthopoulos recently stated that both Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider may not be reliable options to get a ton of innings in 2027, that does apparently open up the Braves to pursuing some pitching options going forward.

That search could include Atlanta potentially providing a home ballpark for a pitcher who could be making his way across the Pacific Ocean from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. Back in March while the World Baseball Classic was going on, Jorge Castillo of ESPN reported that RHP Hiromi Itoh of the Nippon Ham Fighters was widely expected to make the jump to MLB.

The Japanese season has come and gone and it’s still expected that Itoh will be coming over. The reason why we’re talking about it here is because in his International Beat newsletter for MLB.com (which you can subscribe to here), Michael Clair shared what he gleaned from an anonymous scout currently working in Japan and Clair stated that the Braves could be a “potential fit” for Itoh if/when he makes the move.

Here’s part of what Clair had to say about Itoh:

While Itoh has an extra inch on [Kaima] Taira, he’s also 40 lbs lighter and could be ticketed for a relief role. “He could be an up and down starter,” our scout said, “but maybe in relief he might show some more velocity. In the previous WBC, he came out of the bullpen and he was 94-96 with some nasty stuff.” However, what Itoh lacks in size, he makes up for with a deep pitch mix consisting of “10+ unique grips and shapes” as noted by Yakyu Cosmopolitan. 

Here’s the linked tweet from Yakyu Cosmopolitan (and if you’re on Twitter and you want to learn more about Japanese baseball, he is a fantastic resource to learn from)

Here’s some video of Itoh pitching for the Fighters this season, while we’re at it:

Itoh didn’t have as dominating of a season in 2026 as he did in 2025 which is when he won the Sawamura Award (basically the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award) with an ERA of 2.52 (79 ERA-) and a FIP of 2.27 (73 ERA-) across 27 starts and 196.2 innings pitched — but he still produced an ERA of 3.23 (94 ERA-) and a 2.81 FIP (82 FIP-) across 172.2 innings and 26 starts in 2026. He also took a step back in the 2026 WBC when compared to his dominant effort during the 2023 WBC, so hopefully this isn’t a case of Itoh starting to really slow down now that he’ll be hitting his age-30 season in 2027.

With that being said, Japanese stars have continued to somewhat routinely over-perform their expectations and it’s fun to think about what, say, Jeremy Hefner could do with this guy if they got in the lab together. While the Braves have only been speculated as a potential fit, there’s real MLB interest here as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle recently reported that the Giants were spotted scouting Itoh, so there’s plenty of smoke when it comes to the fire of seeing Itoh in a big league uniform soon.

Will the Braves be the team that decides to seriously pursue Itoh? There’s no telling as this is purely speculation at this point for everybody involved. It’s fun to think about and discuss, though, so let us know what y’all think about this.