Category: Baseball

The modern MLB Draft format only really started in 1987, as there used to be multiple drafts in each year, with January and June drafts plus secondary drafts for each. That means we are entering the 40th draft under the current format, though the number of days and rounds has changed at times in those 40 years.

I thought with this being the 40th draft, now would be a good time to take a look back at some of the best and worst picks that the Atlanta Braves have made during that time. The majority of the best picks will be all over the place, while the majority of the worst picks will come from the top two rounds.

The only qualification for making this list is the player had to have signed as a part of that draft. For that reason, you won’t find Anthony Rendon on the best picks list. For the same reason you won’t find Carter Stewart on the worst picks list.

Best Picks

1. Chipper Jones, SS, 1990 – It’s not easy for a #1 overall pick to make this list, let alone top it – but Chipper Jones wasn’t ordinary by the standards of the top overall selection. The Hall of Famer, and one of the faces of the Braves dynasty run was an MVP, Batting Champion, and World Series winner who hit .303/.401/.529 with 468 homers as a career-long Brave.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, 2007 – It’s easy to forget that Freddie Freeman wasn’t the Braves top pick in the 2007 class, or even the most hyped prospect out of that group thanks to Jason Heyward. However the Braves second rounder has carved out a future Hall of Fame career, hitting .299/.385/.509 with 370 homers, an MVP, Gold Glove, and 3 World Series rings – including one World Series MVP. Though he if now in his fifth season with the Dodgers, Freeman’s contributions to the Braves and helping lead them from rebuilding organization to 2021 World Series champs won’t be forgotten anytime soon.

3. Brian McCann, C, 2002 – The second round pick in 2022, Brian McCann took over the Braves catching job in 2005 and held it through the 2013 season, before leaving to sign with the Yankees. He returned home to play his final season as a Brave in 2019, posting a career .262/.337/.452 slash with 282 homers. The seven-time All Star even won a World Series ring with the 2017 Astros. McCann reached the Hall of Fame ballot in the 2025 voting, but was removed after receiving just 1.8% of the vote.

4. Adam Wainwright, RHP, 2000 – The 29th pick in the 2000 draft never saw Atlanta, thanks to being traded to the Cardinals for JD Drew after the 2003 season. Still he deserves to be ranked high on this list as a player who will be getting considered for a possible spot in the Hall of Fame. Waino spent his entire career in St. Louis, going 200-128 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 2202 strikeouts over 2668.1 innings. He might have had even better counting stats, but missed all of 2011 and parts of 2015 and 2018 with injuries, along with the shortened 2020 season. He retired after the 2023 season at the age of 41.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, 2008 – Craig Kimbrel was actually drafted out of his Alabama JUCO twice by the Braves, though he didn’t sign as a 33rd round pick in 2007. He did sign as a third rounder in 2008, and went on to become arguably the greatest closer in franchise history. A current Met, he has a career 2.63 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 440 saves, and 1293 strikeouts over 830 innings pitched. Out of his 440 saves, 186 came in a Braves uniform, and he pitched to a 1.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with the team. He was traded to the Padres just before Opening Day in 2015, right at the start of the Braves rebuild – a move that netted the Braves another member of this list with the Competitive Balance Round A pick that was part of his return. He will likely be considered for the Hall of Fame once that time comes for him.

6. Kevin Millwood, RHP, 1993 – An 11th round pick in 1993, Kevin Millwood reached the bigs in 1997, and had his breakout in 1999 when he finished third in Cy Young voting. He was a bit more up and down over the next three seasons with the Braves, before they flipped him to the Phillies after the 2022 season for catcher Johnny Estrada. Overall he went 169-152 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 2083 strikeouts in 2720.1 innings, earning 29.8 bWAR. Millwood was an All Star just once, in 1999, but twice received Cy Young votes, and led the AL in ERA with Cleveland in 2005.

7. Jason Schmidt, RHP, 1991 – An eighth round pick in 1991, Jason Schmidt became a top prospect for the Braves. He hadn’t quite broken out yet in 22 big league games, when the Braves flipped him to the Pirates in 1996 for Denny Neagle. Schmidt ended up going on to win 130 games with a 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 1758 strikeouts over 1996.1 innings. He was a three-time All Star, and led the NL in ERA in 2003 when he finished second in the Cy Young voting with the Giants. Overall he posted 29.5 bWAR, which turned out to be a steal in the eighth round.

8. Andrelton Simmons, SS, 2010 – Andrelton Simmons was taken in the second round in 2010, and by 2012 had become the Braves starting shortstop. Although he was a career .263/.312/.366 hitter with 70 homers, he was a highlight machine that became the best defensive shortstop – and possibly even player, in baseball. That led to Simmons posting 36.5 bWAR. Like Kimbrel he was traded in 2015, after the season, to the Angels as the Braves got further into their rebuild.

9. Jermaine Dye, OF, 1993 – A 17th round pick in 1993, Jermaine Dye quickly became a top prospect for the Braves. They brought him up in 1996 and saw him slash .281/.304/.459 with 12 homers in 98 games. Unfortunately the Braves were in win-now mode at that time, and after the year sent him to the Royals in the deal that brought in Michael Tucker and Keith Lockhart. Dye went on to slash .274/.338/.488 with 325 homers in 14 big league seasons with four teams. He was a two-time All Star that finished fifth in AL MVP voting in 2006, when he hit 44 homers with 120 RBI for the White Sox. Dye, who put up 20.3 bWAR, also won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and was the World Series MVP in the White Sox 2005 title run.

10. Austin Riley, 3B, 2015 – The player acquired with the Competitive Balance pick received in the Craig Kimbrel trade is Austin Riley. The 41st pick in the 2015 draft, a former two-way high school star, Riley has been a two-time All Star and Silver Slugger, as well as winning the 2021 World Series. For his career Riley is hitting .267/.332/.486 with 174 homers – and won’t turn 30 until the start of next season. He has already produced 22.5 bWAR for the Braves.

11. Ryan Klesko, LHP, 1989 – A fifth round pick in 1989, future Braves slugger Ryan Klesko is actually listed as being drafted as a left-handed pitcher. That is because he was seen as a guy with real potential on the mound, though his impressive power ended up continuing his development as a bat. Klesko slashed .279/.370/.500 with 278 homers over parts of 16 big league seasons. The one-time All Star, who won a ring as a member of the 1995 Braves, put up 26.9 bWAR – a number that would surely be higher if not for his well below average defense bringing that total down. Klesko hit 20+ homers in four of the five seasons he played 100+ games with the Braves, before being traded to the Padres after the 1999 season in the deal that brought Reggie Sanders, Wally Joyner, and Quilvio Veras to Atlanta.

12. Michael Harris II, CF, 2019 – The third round pick in 2019 rose quickly through the minors out of high school to win the Rookie of the Year in 2022 – despite losing his 2020 season to the Covid shutdown. After posting OPS marks of .853 and .808 in his first two years, injury and issues with his swing resulted in marks of .722 and .678 in his next two years. Harris did come back on in the second half of last year, and presently has a .841 OPS this year, while also being one of the top defensive centerfielders in the league. For his career he is a .275/.309/.454 hitter with 80 homers, and is still in just his age-25 season with 15.2 bWAR produced.

13. Spencer Strider, RHP, 2020 – A fourth rounder in that weird 2020 draft, Spencer Strider has quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. After finishing second in the Rookie of the Year to a teammate, and fellow member of this list in 2022, Strider finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2023. Unfortunately Tommy John hit him after just two starts in 2024, and he spent 2025 trying to get himself back into form. An injury has kept him to just one start, which had to be at Coors Field, so far this year as we wait to see what version of Strider is really in there right now. Overall he is 39-24 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 632 strikeouts in 458.1 innings.

Honorable Mention:

Marcus Giles, 2B, 1996 (53rd round), Kris Medlen, RHP, 2006 (10th round), Mike Stanton, LHP, 1987 (13th round), Tommy Hanson, RHP, 2005 (22nd round), Adam LaRoche, 1B, 2000 (29th round), Jonny Venters, LHP, 2003 (30th round), Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, 2021 (2nd round), Drake Baldwin, C, 2022 (3rd round)

AJ Smith-Shawver, JR Ritchie, and Hurston Waldrep have not done enough to qualify for the list, but this group could move their way up in the coming years – just like other recent draftees Schwellenbach and Baldwin can.

Worst Picks

1. Mike Kelly, OF, 1991 – The year the Braves turned around to start their great 90s-00s run, they were given the second overall pick. They went for a college star from a top program, with a pick they were hoping could front the lineup with Chipper Jones. However things didn’t quite work out for Kelly, as he produced just 0.3 fWAR over 327 big league games. That 1991 draft produced guys like Manny Ramirez, Shawn Green, Cliff Floyd, Aaron Sele, and Doug Glanville among others. One of those guys would have helped that special run much more than Kelly did. It is worth noting that the Braves picked second because the AL and NL alternated years with the top pick for the worst team, and if they picked first they likely would have taken generational pitching prospect Brien Taylor – whose career never really got going due to an injury in a bar fight.

2. Tyler Houston, C, 1989 – Houston was the second overall pick in 1989, and he produced 1.4 fWAR over 700 big league games. Similar to Lilliquist, that’s just not enough impact this high, and he was selected second when Frank Thomas and Charles Johnson were among the Top 10 picks. That doesn’t even include Mo Vaughn and Chuck Knoblauch in the first round.

3. Derek Lilliquist, LHP, 1987 – The sixth pick in the famous Ken Griffey Jr. class had a 262 game big league career over the course of eight seasons, including 41 starts for the Braves and producing 4.7 fWAR. The reason he made the list is because a couple of picks later Kevin Appier was selected. A few of the other players in that first round include Craig Biggio, Delino DeShields Sr., Mike Remlinger, Travis Fryman, and Pete Harnisch. When you’re picking that high, you’re hoping for a little more impact than a guy who ended up being a journeyman reliever.

4. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, 2011 – This was a questionable pick right from the start, as the Braves used the 28th pick on a soft tossing lefty that was a college ace. Gilmartin did appear in 81 big league games over six seasons with three different teams, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 112 career innings. There were plenty of other options in that first round including Blake Snell, Trevor Story, Joe Musgrove, Michael Fulmer, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Chafin, and Joe Panik.

5. Jason Hursh, RHP, 2013 – The 31st pick in 2013 was seen as a questionable pick at the time, as most thought he would end up being a reliever. That ended up being exactly what happened, as he ended up moving to the bullpen within two years of being drafted. Hursh appeared in 11 big league games with the Braves, during the 2016 and 2017 seasons – while the team was rebuilding, and pitched to a 8.25 ERA in 12 innings. The very next pick ended up being Aaron Judge, while Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, and Corey Knebel were among the other first rounders taken after Hursh.

6. Jamie Arnold, RHP, 1992 – The 21st pick of the 1992 MLB Draft, Arnold actually appeared in 50 big league games with the Dodgers and Cubs after becoming a free agent after the 1998 season – though he racked up a 5.73 ERA in those games. The reason he makes this list is because the next two picks in that draft were Rick Helling and Jason Kendall, a pair of players that put up 61.9 bWAR over their careers. Charles Johnson again went within the next 10 picks, this time signing with the Marlins.

7. Matt Lipka, SS/OF, 2010 – The 35th pick in 2010 was a former two sport star in high school that the Braves wanted to continue developing as a contact and speed oriented prospect. It never worked out, as he topped out at Triple-A and never truly settled into one defensive position. Some of the other options here included Noah Syndergaard, Nick Castellanos, and Taijuan Walker.

8. Ryan Cusick, RHP, 2021 – A year after taking Jared Shuster in the first out of Wake Forest with mixed reactions, the Braves doubled down on Wake arms. Cusick was met with an even tougher reaction when announced, and so far he hasn’t really done much to prove the team right. As of now he is in Triple-A with the Phillies organization, but he owns a career 5.55 ERA in his minor league career. The Braves were widely expected to take Gavin Williams with this pick, but he came off the board one pick earlier by Cleveland, and they pivoted to Cusick over Jackson Merrill and Carson Williams among others. This would rank higher on the list if not for the fact the Braves traded him to then-Oakland as part of the deal that brought Matt Olson in to replace Freddie Freeman.

9. Braden Shewmake, INF, 2019 – The Braves surprised people when they took Texas A&M infielder Braden Shewmake with the 21st pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. That pick was one I was known to be very critical of at the time, and to date he has played in 39 career big league games since the start of 2023 – though he is on the Astros active roster at the moment. Shewmake has a career .447 OPS, though he is five for 16 with a pair of homers this year. Anthony Volpe and Michael Busch were the best players in the remainder of that first round, though Gunnar Henderson was the first pick of that second round.

10. Cole Phillips, RHP, 2022 – The Braves used a second round pick on an injured prep pitcher in 2022 named Cole Phillips. He was seen as a potential first rounder that spring, before his injury happened. He wasn’t expected to pitch until at least mid-to-late 2023, but has never pitched in a professional game almost four years later. Some of the other second rounders that year included Jacob Misiorowski, Roman Anthony, and Chandler Simpson.

11. Joey Devine, RHP, 2005 – The Braves used the 27th pick in 2005 on a college closer that they thought they could quickly get to the big leagues to help fix a bullpen that was a problem at the time. Devine was actually rushed to the big leagues, making his debut in August, but never did much in a Braves uniform. He did have one great season in Oakland, pitching to a 0.59 ERA in 42 appearances, but only pitched in 93 games as injuries took their toll on him. The Braves could have taken Colby Rasmus, who went with the very next pick, or fellow first rounders Clay Buchholz or Jed Lowrie instead.

12. Beau Philip, INF, 2019 – Philip is the rare second round pick to make this list, but that is because he was seen as a head scratching pick at the time. Most expected Philip to go somewhere between the fifth and seventh rounds, but the Braves took the Oregon State product with the 60th pick. He played 352 games in the Braves system, posting a career OPS of just .615. Some of the names drafted after him in that second round include Kyle Stowers, Josh Smith, and Jared Triolo. The only reason Philip isn’t even higher on this list is the fact that he took an underslot bonus of $700k to sign, which saved the Braves about $450k – money that was used to sign Michael Harris.

13. Jared Shuster, LHP, 2020 – The 25th pick in the weird 2020 MLB Draft, Shuster was a pick who was met with mixed reactions from the jump when the Braves took him out of Wake Forest. He has pitched in 66 big league games, including four with the Cardinals this year, though has a 5.12 ERA in 149.1 career innings – including 11 starts with the Braves in 2023, before going to the White Sox in the Aaron Bummer deal. After Shuster, Tyler Soderstrom was the next pick, and Jordan Westburg, Austin Wells, and Carmen Mlodzinski also came off the board in the next six picks.

Dodgers affiliates fought multiple opponents on Sunday — opposing offenses, and rain.

Player of the day

Great Lakes right fielder Jose Meza was in the middle of all three scoring innings for the Loons in Sunday’s win. He walked with the bases loaded in the third inning, hit a two-run double in the fourth, then doubled home another in the seventh.

Mesa tied his season high with four RBI (also done on April 21), and added a single in the eighth to match his season high of three hits (also April 5 and April 28).

Triple-A Oklahoma City

The series finale between the Comets and Salt Lake Bees (Angels) was canceled due to inclement weather.

The teams do not meet again in the first half of the season, so Sunday’s game will not be made up later this year.

Double-A Tulsa

A five-run seventh against Roque Gutierrez and Christian Suarez spelled doom for the Drillers in a rainy road loss to the Arkansas Travelers (Mariners).

Down three in the ninth, Tulsa got two-out walks by Kendall George and Josue De Paula, then a single by Kyle Nevin for one run before the game was delayed with the tying runs on base. Zyhir Hope was due to bat to see if the comeback could be completed, but the weather never cooperated and the game was called with two outs in the ninth.

You might remember Elijah Hainline from making some highlight defensive playsin the middle infield as one of the high-number crew who suited up for several games during spring training. Tulsa’s shortstop on Sunday made waves at the plate, with two singles, a double, a stolen base, scored two runs, and drove in another. He had three multi-hit games during this series in Arkansas.

The bats are alive 🔥

Hainline comes through with a single and Hope crosses the plate! pic.twitter.com/PKVbWfag4i

— Tulsa Drillers (@TulsaDrillers) May 10, 2026

High-A Great Lakes

Meza delivered all four RBI by the Loons in their win over the Lake County Captains (Guardians), but Great Lakes scored seven runs in total. One of those other three runs came home on a balk, and the other two scored on a fielding error at third base.

Great Lakes thus far has eased Brooks Auger back from the injured list, missing about a month after a pulled groin in spring training. He’s lasted between two and three innings in his three starts so far, but the results are there, including five strikeouts in 2 2/3 scoreless frames on Sunday, allowing only two singles. In three games, Auger has allowed only one run in 7 2/3 innings, with 14 strikeouts against only two walks and a phenomenal 38.7-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate.

Jose Hernandez, promoted on Saturday, started at first base Sunday and was 0-for-3 with a walk and hit by pitch in his High-A debut.

Class-A Ontario

Jesus Tillero had a rough start, allowing eight runs while recording 10 outs in the Tower Buzzers’ loss to the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.

Third baseman Chase Harlan had two hits, extending his hit streak to nine games. Jaron Elkins had two hits as the designated hitter on Sunday and stole two bases. Elkins, who stole 63 bases last season, has 16 steals in 19 attempts this season in 30 games.

Transactions

Triple-A: Right-hander Wyatt Mills was called up to the Dodgers bullpen, and Paul Gervase was optioned back to Oklahoma City.

Sunday scores

• Oklahoma City vs. Salt Lake, canceled (rain)
• Arkansas 8, Tulsa 6
• Great Lakes 7, Lake County 4
• Rancho Cucamonga 10, Ontario 2

The week ahead

• Oklahoma City at Albuquerque (Rockies)
• Tulsa vs. Springfield (Cardinals)
• Great Lakes vs. West Michigan (Tigers)
• Ontario vs. San Jose (Giants)

Dusty Baker infamously refused to play Yainer Diaz at catcher more than once or twice a week during his first full season in the big leagues in 2023. The reasoning was that he wasn’t ready for the rigors of everyday catching. What many of us pointed out at the time was that Diaz was a vastly superior hitter to the incumbent Martin Maldonado, and the defensive metrics seemed to point to the fact that he was also the superior catcher as well that season.

I was one of those ringing that bell continually that season. I stand by that analysis. This is because we could add in some other numbers that measure the so-called intangibles. Intangibles are things we are not able to measure. Fans, scouts, coaches, and historians often cite intangibles when trying to pick between two seemingly similar players. One of the core beliefs in the lab is that intangibles are things we are not able to measure yet. The yet is the key word there.

Pitch framing used to be a skill that people counted as an intangible. It was called that because we had not figured out how to measure it. We now have a stat for that, so it is no longer an intangible. Similarly, those that call themselves experts (some are and some just call themselves experts) point to handling of the pitching staff and calling a game as an intangible. Can’t we measure it?

It would seem pretty easy to do and most sites actually have a number for it. They call it “catcher ERA.” It is the simple calculation of the pitchers that have thrown to that catcher and what their ERA was while doing it. It seems so simple, but most hardcore statisticians don’t look at it for one important reason; second catchers usually catch one or two pitchers exclusively. If those pitchers are really good or really bad that will skew the results.

	Innings	rCERA	DRS	FRV
Yainer Diaz	192.1	0	-3	-3
Christian Vazquez	149.0	0	+3	+2

These are the numbers most people look at when they start breaking down the Gold Glove awards. Obviously, there are numbers based on how well a catcher blocks pitches and dirt and a number for how well they control the running game. These numbers get combined into fielding run value and defensive runs saved. It is easy to see here that the good folks at the Fielding Bible and Fangraphs like Vazquez’s work more than Diaz. They think both are fairly neutral when looking at how they are handling pitchers.

Are they equal though? Sometimes the oldest and most simple numbers are the best ones. Back in 2023, the Astros had a better record in games that Diaz caught and the pitchers seemed to do just as well. So, all of the anecdotal evidence that pitchers liked to throw to Maldonado more than Diaz wasn’t borne out in the actual numbers that pitchers were putting up.

This is the ultimate problem with the current narrative. The current narrative is that Dusty Baker was right not play Diaz and Chas McCormick more in 2023 because they both suck now. Every season exists in its own universe and it is up to the manager to discover as quickly as possible what that particular season has in store. So, who Diaz was or wasn’t in 2023 is immaterial. The question becomes who is Yainer Diaz right now and how successful is he working with pitchers?

There are only two crude numbers we are going to look at. First, we will look at the average number of runs per game that the team has allowed when these two catchers were starting. Vazquez has now started 17 games on the season while Diaz started 22 before he went down with an injury. So, we will look at the number of runs per game the team has allowed in those starts and the team’s won-loss record when those catchers caught. I will do the same thing with both Diaz and Martin Maldonado in 2023 to demonstrate what I’m talking about.

2026

	RPG	W-L
Yainer Diaz	5.64	7-15
Christian Vazquez	5.06	9-8

These numbers aren’t perfect. Diaz caught both of Hunter Brown’s starts and Vazquez caught all of the Imai starts. One could easily remove those to give this a more even look and we would see an even starker difference between the two. However, the point is pretty clear. Pitchers pitch better to Vazquez than they do to Diaz and the team is generally more successful. Obviously, Vazquez also currently has better offensive numbers, but even without the offensive numbers, the advantage would be there. Let me break down 2023 really quickly to demonstrate the difference.

2023

	R/G	W-L
Yainer Diaz	4.10	30-18
Martin Maldonado	4.54	60-54

As we move closer to Memorial Day we come to realize that every season exists in its own universe. So, the notion that Dusty Baker was right because Yainer Diaz currently is no good makes very little sense. Diaz was better offensively in 2023. He was better defensively in 2023. The Astros allowed fewer runs per game when he caught and they won a higher percentage of games when he caught. The decision to play Maldonado was based on past considerations that were no longer true.

Similarly, it will likely be true that Diaz will end up being better offensively than Vazquez. For one, he was just starting to hit before he went down. For another, Vazquez’s Statcast numbers clearly indicate That he is due to regress any minute now. Still, the Astros pitchers are clearly doing better pitching to Vazquez and the Astros as a team are performing better when Vazquez catches. It might end up being closer to one fewer run a game. There is no way that Diaz could produce that much additional damage offensively. So, Vazquez is demonstrating that he should be the guy.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It's only a six-game slate tonight, but I've still found immense value in my MLB player props, including from the likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Corbin Carroll, and Drew Rasmussen. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, May 11. 

Best MLB player props today

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 strikeouts (+113)

Nathan Eovaldi has always had electrifying stuff. While the strikeout numbers this season aren't jumping off the page, he's still getting his fair share of swings and misses. Eovaldi has racked up 47 Ks in 47 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has cashed the Over in punchouts in back-to-back outings, collecting 15 Ks during that span. 

In his most recent start, Eovaldi struck out eight Yankees. The Texas Rangers face the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and the D-Backs have struck out 8.33 times across their last three contests.

Eovaldi's stuff looks sharper lately, and he's also allowed just one earned run across his previous two appearances. He'll rack up the Ks again tonight. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN+

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+119)

I may be eyeing Eovaldi to deal, but one Arizona hitter who has had success against him is Corbin Carroll. It hasn't been a banner year so far for the outfielder, hitting just .258. However, he's had Eovaldi's number, going 5-for-13 lifetime with a double, triple, and home run. Carroll has also cashed the Over in total bases in two of his last four contests. 

The 25-year-old had a double in the series opener against the New York Mets on Friday, and he also went deep on Thursday against the Pirates.

Although he isn't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball in May, facing a guy whom he's hit well against before screams value here, especially given Carroll's extra-base potential vs Eovaldi, who has already allowed 10 homers in eight starts. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN+

Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 strikeouts (-107)

Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays will face the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, and his last start came against them. Rasmussen ultimately tossed six innings, striking out five. He's cashed the Over in Ks in three straight, clearing tonight's total quite easily in the two starts prior as well.

The righty has struck out 19 hitters in 18 2/3 innings of work on the road, and he's hit the Over in five of his seven outings overall this season.

While the Jays do a phenomenal job of putting the ball in play, Rasmussen has very good stuff, and his total is relatively low. Clearing five Ks for the fourth straight start shouldn't be difficult after he found a rhythm against this same lineup last week. 

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SN1, Rays.TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

This time a week ago, the Orioles season was in danger of spiraling out of control as they were in the middle of getting laughed out of the stadium in every game of a four-game set against the Yankees. Since then, they’ve stopped the tailspin for now, winning two against the Marlins and one against the Nationals. Now, the Yankees are up again and we’ll see if the Orioles can be more competitive this time.

In this week’s episode of the podcast, I’ve given up on my comparison from a couple of weeks ago about the possibility of these Orioles following the 2014 team’s path to success. They’re not really holding on around .500. Instead, we have to look to the O’s southern neighbors, the Nationals, who were a hot mess in the end of May but eventually turned things around and went on to win the World Series. It’s a thin strand to hang on to.

Also in this episode, a listener sent in a question asking who makes the final decisions on the Orioles lineup each night. My answer is maybe my hottest take yet on this podcast, because nobody who reads this website seems to believe it: Manager Craig Albernaz. Bear with me and give it a listen as I explain why:

If the above player isn’t displaying, view this article in Incognito Mode or check it out on the show’s page.

This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of the next episode of the podcast.

The San Diego Padres were one pitch away from dropping their series to the St. Louis Cardinals, but Nick Castellanos changed the outcome of the game and the series with one swing of the bat. Castellanos was called on to pinch-hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. After breaking his bat and having to borrow a replacement from Fernando Tatis Jr., Castellanos hit a game-tying two-run home run on a 3-2 pitch deep into the left field bleachers. Petco Park erupted and wanted to see Ramon Laureano end the game with one swing of the bat. Instead, he struck out to end the inning.

San Diego was able to get through the top of the 10th inning without allowing the Manfred-man to score from second base. That set the stage for the Padres to get an extra-innings win in dramatic fashion. Laureano started at second base due to him being the final out in the bottom of the ninth inning. Jackson Merrill was intentionally walked and Tatis Jr. worked a six-pitch walk off Cardinals reliver Gordon Graceffo to load the baes. Manny Machado stepped to the plate and lifted the first pitch into right-center field which allowed Laureano to tag up and score from third base to give the Padres a 3-2 extra-innings win.

Walker Buehler started the game for San Diego and pitched well. He made one mistake to the most dangerous hitter in the St. Louis lineup in Jordan Walker, and he deposited the pitch into the left field stands for a two-run home run. Buehler finished the game with two runs allowed on three hits through six innings with two strikeouts. The San Diego bullpen did not allow a hit over the final four innings with Ron Marinaccio throwing two hitless innings, followed by an inning from Bradgley Rodriguez, 2/3 of an inning from Jeremiah Estrada and 1/3 of an inning from Adrian Morejon.

The Padres are off Monday and will open a three-game series on the road in Milwaukee against the Brewers on Tuesday.

Padres News:

• With the injury to Luis Campusano the Padres needed to add another catcher to their roster and they did so by selecting Triple-A catcher Rodolfo Duran. There were some among the Friar Faithful who thought maybe top-prospect Ethan Salas would get the nod. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball believes San Diego made the right decision allowing Salas to continue to develop in the minors.

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune believes the depth of the roster and the bullpen makes the Padres a “playoff-caliber club.“

• It would be difficult to see yourself in one specific role for most of your MLB experience and then be asked to change. Matt Waldron has his mind set on helping the team in any capacity.

Baseball News:

• The Milwaukee Brewers swept the New Yor Yankees for the first time in a century of baseball. Yankees top prospect Spencer Jones recorded his first MLB hit in the game with family in attendance.

• Eli White made the catch on a ball to the wall and helped lead the Atlanta Braves beat the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• The Texas Rangers shut out the Chicago Cubs on the strength of a vintage start from Jacob DeGrom.

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Detroit Tigers play a three-game series at Citi Field starting on Tuesday.

---

5 things to watch

A Juan-derful resurgence?

Juan Soto remains one of the best hitters in baseball, but he’s coming off an awful nine-game road trip. Soto was just 4-for-33 (.121) with two RBI in Anaheim, Denver and Phoenix with a woeful .231 on-base percentage and .503 OPS. He was 0-for-10 in the series against the Diamondbacks.

In general, the Met attack is poor (more on that in a moment), and it’s near-impossible for the club to soar without Soto near his full powers. And because of his rep and contract, he’s perpetually in the spotlight. 

Maybe the homestand brings better results – Soto is batting .341 with a 1.010 OPS at Citi Field this season. 

Just plain offensive

Yes, the Mets are dealing with injuries to Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco, who were supposed to be key lineup cogs this season. But the undermanned version of their lineup is unimposing, to say the least, and they must wring more runs from it if they hope to rebound from their 15-25 start.

Overall, the Mets are averaging the second-fewest runs (3.48) in MLB. Only the woeful Giants (3.25) score less. The Mets have an MLB-worst .341 slugging percentage, 48 points below league average. And their OPS (.628) is also the lowest, 21 points below San Francisco’s and 81 points below average. 

They scored a total of five runs in dropping the Diamondbacks series, mustering only 12 hits. 

Ugh. 

Bo Bichette batted .194 on the road trip, including an 0-for-10 no-show in Arizona. Mark Vientos has offered the occasional power spurt, but he was 3-for-20 over the final five games of the trip. 

Detroit righty Jack Flaherty should get a start in the series, which brings us to a suggestion – be patient, Mets hitters. Flaherty has walked the third-most hitters in the majors this year and is averaging 6.89 free passes per nine. Let him clog the bases against himself.

Professor McGonigle 

Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle is one of the most impressive rookies in the majors, and his exploits will almost certainly impact this series. He’s an important part of their offense, especially with Gleyber Torres, Javy Báez and Kerry Carpenter out with injury.

The 21-year-old McGonigle, who has been batting leadoff or second, leads all rookies in hits, has an .830 OPS and more walks (23) than strikeouts (21). He’s also batting .429 with runners in scoring position, fourth in MLB, and was the AL Rookie of the Month for March/April.

Carson City

The Mets have a pulchritudinous rookie of their own in Carson Benge,and he might be emerging before our very eyes. Benge’s overall numbers aren’t so gorgeous (.207 average, .603 OPS), but he’s looked more and more comfortable as the season has progressed.

He’s always provided defense at all three outfield positions and he’s got speed, too (six-for-six in steal attempts). And he let none of that lapse while he struggled offensively. 

He’s a tougher out now, and the Mets, obviously, could use his blooming offense this week. Benge was 7-for-26 (.267) on the road trip with a .367 on-base percentage and a .500 slugging. He had three doubles, a home run and five RBI over the nine games. 

Cook at home

The Mets have endured a funky schedule so far, having gone west on three separate trips. That can’t be good for the body clock, right? But they only travel to the West Coast once more, next month, meaning their travel should get easier the rest of the way. 

So it’s time to start taking advantage of home-field advantage, starting with this Detroit series. The Tigers are 7-16 on the road, the worst away mark in baseball. 

The Mets are just 6-12 at Citi Field so far, the second-worst home record in baseball. They were a robust 49-32 at home last year. 

Sure would be good to create some atmosphere in Queens by playing well against Detroit, especially with the first installment of the Subway Series against the Yankees looming this weekend.

Predictions

Who will be the series MVP?

Juan Soto

He’s just too good, with too much of a track record, for his woes to go on too much longer. 

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Freddy Peralta

Peralta, who starts the series opener Tuesday, seems to be heating up with a 1.62 ERA over his last three starts, though the Mets probably would like him to deliver more innings per start – he’s pitched six innings only twice in eight outings.

Which D-Backs player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Riley Greene

Greene, a two-time All-Star who has a 21-game on-base streak, is tied for second in MLB with 13 doubles, is 10th in batting (.317) and has a .908 OPS. 

Columbus Clippers 9, Iowa Cubs 4

Clippers improve to 20-19

Columbus teed off on offense Sunday, scoring nine runs on 16 hits as a whopping six different players had multi-hit games.

Leading the charge was Kahlil Watson, who impressively went 3-for-5 with two home runs and a stolen base, raising his season OPS to .899.

Kahlil Watson homers AGAIN!

His second homer of the game is a 2-run bomb! Watson is currently 2-for-3 with 5 RBI in today's @CLBClippers game 🤯 pic.twitter.com/4Fd1A86uNk

— GuardsInsider (@GuardsInsider) May 10, 2026

Angel Genao also had his best game since his promotion, going 3-for-5 with a triple, a double and two runs scored. After a slow first couple games, he’s now batting .333 with a 1.009 OPS at Triple-A.

Milan Tolentino had a big game as well, going 3-for-4 with a double and a stolen base while Nolan Jones went 2-for-5 with a double, Stuart Fairchild went 2-for-5 with two stolen bases and Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with a walk.

The Clippers got a strong showing on the mound as well, with Logan Allen having his best game of the season. Allen allowed one run on five hits with five strikeouts and one walk in 7.0 innings.

Cody Heuer allowed a pair of runs and Steven Perez allowed one more run before finishing off the game.

Akron RubberDucks 0, Richmond Flying Squirrels 6

RubberDucks fall to 17-16

Akron’s offense struggled mightily in this one as no one had an extra base hit.

Zac Cozart led the way, going 2-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base. Alex Mooney went 1-for-4 with two stolen bases and Jake Fox and Christian Knapczyk both went 1-for-3 with a walk.

Starting pitcher Josh Hartle pitched well enough, allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits with five strikeouts and a walk in 5.1 innings.

Jack Jasiak allowed three more runs and Reid Johnson pitched a scoreless final frame.

Lake County Captains 4, Great Lakes Loons 7

Captains fall to 15-17

It was a slow day for Lake County as Ryan Cesarini had the lone extra base hit, going 1-for-5 with a double.

Jace LaViolette had a decent game, going 2-for-5, although he struck out three times. Bennett Thompson stayed scorching hot, going 2-for-4 with a hit by pitch while Luke Hill went 2-for-3 with a walk.

Tommy Hawke went 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base while Dean Curley and Nolan Schubart both walked twice.

Starting pitcher Jackson Humphries had his typical enigmatic game. He allowed two runs (zero earned) on one hit with three walks and six strikeouts in 4.0 innings.

Michael Kennedy attempted to provide long relief and got shelled for four runs in 0.2 frames to ensure the loss.

Hill City Howlers 4, Fredericksburg Nationals 11

Howlers fall to 18-15

Hill City’s losing streak moved to four games on Sunday as its young pitching got shelled.

Starter Chase Mobley allowed five runs on four hits in 2.0 innings because he walked a whopping seven batters and struck otu two.

Keegan Zinn then attempted long relief and got shellacked for five more runs in 2.1 frames.

Offensively, Jose Pirela had a good game, going 3-for-4 with a double. Robert Arias walked twice and had a sacrifice fly and Yaikel Mijares went 2-for-4 with two doubles. Johan Rodriguez went 2-for-4 with a double as well.

Let’s jump straight to the question of the day: would you give Brandon Marsh a contract extension beyond this season?

Is this a question based on yesterday’s performance? Perhaps, but let’s think this one through a little bit. The team’s outfield depth is near nonexistent in the minor leagues outside of maybe Dante Nori. There isn’t much available on the free agent market coming up in the next several seasons in the outfield, so basically, Marsh might be their best option for left field.

That does make it a little more imperative that he improve against left handed hitters. It would be difficult to justify paying a platoon player significant money if it came down to it. Yet they have put themselves in this position by not creating the depth necessary to withstand these kinds of issues. They will almost undoubtedly continue using Justin Crawford in center field, but what about the corners in the future?

Is Brandon Marsh part of that future?

While this Orioles team entered the season with plenty of questions, the shortstop position wasn’t one of them. Gunnar Henderson’s name was etched in stone as perhaps the most dependable piece of Craig Albernaz’s lineup. Now healthy and fresh off of a solid showing at the World Baseball Classic, it felt like 2026 was poised to be a big year for Birdland’s star player.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case through the season’s quarter pole. Henderson is struggling. On the year, he owns a .211/.269/.421 batting line and a 91 wRC+. Since April 15 he has an OPS of just .580. During that time his batting average has dipped into the .190s twice, including this past weekend.

Henderson is well aware of how much he has scuffled. He told the media recently that he had “been pretty terrible for about a month now” and went on to explain the things he is doing to get out of his ongoing skid.

No one is going to question Henderson’s work ethic or desire to succeed for the Orioles. He wears his heart on his sleeve, for better or worse. But he will continue to be under the microscope anyway because, more than any other player on the roster, his ability to performe is tied directly to the team’s fortunes. If he starts hitting like he is capable of, the Orioles are going to score a lot more runs and win a lot more games.

So, what exactly is going on with Henderson?

We know he missed time with an oblique injury right at the start of 2025, and then he revealed during the winter that he also had a shoulder impingement as well that lingered. Could there be residual effects from those things? Maybe, but that isn’t obvious from what we can see. Henderson’s bat speed (74.2 mph) and sprint speed (28.2 feet/second) are down from last year, but not too dramatically, and both are still well above league average. At the very least, any sort of minor injury is not the only reason why he has seen all of his outputs crater.

What seems more likely is that Henderson’s approach has changed quite a bit coming into 2026. He’s way more aggressive. His 32.4% first pitch swing rate is the highest it has been since 2023. And the 34.4% chase rate is the highest of his career.

Orioles hitting coach Dustin Lind said as much when he spoke to the press on Sunday. He described Henderson as “not controlling the zone,” and went on to explain that the team encourages a shift in approach with two strikes that focuses on contact above all else. Maybe Henderson missed that memo. He is striking out 30.1% of the time, by far the worst rate of his career.

As you would expect for a player that is swinging and striking out more than ever, his walk numbers are in the tank. He has a 7.1% walk rate right now. Usually he walks at a 9-10% clip, which makes a big difference, especially for someone that is being placed in the lead-off spot regularly.

Rather than acting like a table setter, Henderson is swinging for the fences. His average launch angle is 15.3 degrees this year. His career average launch angle is 9.9 degrees. Would it shock you to learn that he is also hitting more fly outs than ever before? At 39.7%, he is posting the highest fly out rate of his career. That is part of why his .252 BABIP this year is so much lower than his career .315 number.

Another change in approach: Henderson is pulling everything. More than half (50.9%) of his batted balls are yanked to the right side of the field. His career average for pulled contact is 39.8%. This feels connected to the increased launch angle and the aggressiveness in that each tendency feels aimed at increasing power outputs.

To that point, Henderson is homering more than he did in 2025. He’s already got nine home runs this season, compared to 17 all of last year. This current pace would get him to 36 long balls for the year. And his home run per fly ball rate of 19.6% is much better than 2025 (12.3%), closer to what he posted in 2023 (19.3%) and 2024 (23.9%).

But those home runs have come at the expense of just about every other productive avenue of offense Henderson is usually responsible for. He is on pace for fewer doubles, triples, walks, and stolen bases than he had in 2025, which was already considered something of a disappointing year for him. His fWAR is projected to be 3.2. Still solid overall! But nowhere near the MVP-type of output that many of us hoped for and a steep regression from the 7.9 fWAR he posted in 2024 and even the 4.8 fWAR from 2025.

The Orioles aren’t going to do anything drastic with Henderson. He is not at risk of being sent to the minors or riding the bench for a week to change his mindset. The team needs him in the lineup, even in the midst of this slump. But it also doesn’t make sense for them to bang their head against the wall with him and repeat the same issues day after day.

For starters, he shouldn’t be the lead-off man right now. It’s not a role that is setting him up for success. Slide him down to third or fourth. That will give him more chances with runners on base, putting pressure on the pitcher and possibly giving him more pitches in the zone.

Next, do what you can to ditch the power-first approach that seems to be stuck in his brain. Henderson’s ability to hit 35+ home runs in a season is great, but it’s not worth losing everything else about him that has made him so valuable. If the 37 home runs he hit in 2024 turns out to be an anomaly so be it. He is much better off hitting 20-25 bombs with a .340 on-base percentage and 25 stolen bases than what we are watching right now.

And perhaps the final piece to all of this is making it clear to Henderson that the weight of the world is not on his shoulders. Between Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, and Samuel Basallo, plus any other hitters that eventually turn it around, there are other capable players on the roster that can bear the brunt of any one day. Whether that sort of mental load is contributing to Henderson’s struggles or not is unclear, but it feels worth the team’s time to make that clear to the player. If these Orioles are going to bounce back, they don’t need Henderson to be perfect, they just need him to play his game. Maybe the 4-for-9 he posted this past Saturday and Sunday were just the start of a big turnaround.

Welcome to week 7 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Chicago Cubs (27-14); 5-2 this week; 86.5% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)

The Cubs stayed hot this week, stretching their win streak to 10 with a four-game sweep of the Reds before finally losing over the weekend, dropping two of three against the Rangers in Texas.

Michael Conforto and Seiya Suzuki led the offense with two homers each this week, with one of Conforto’s coming as a walk-off winner against the Reds. Conforto added three doubles and three walks, hitting .500/.588/1.143 for the week. Michael Busch led the team with eight hits, including a homer, while Pete Crow-Armstrong had seven hits, including a homer.

Shota Imanaga picked up the win with 10 strikeouts and just one run allowed across six innings in his start this week, while Ryan Rolison picked up a pair of wins in relief, striking out five over 2 1/3 innings. Javier Assad totaled five scoreless innings in two relief outings, earning a win and striking out two. Phil Maton, Ethan Roberts, and Trent Thornton also had scoreless weeks for the bullpen.

After an off day on Monday, the Cubs continue the road trip in Atlanta against the Braves before returning to Chicago for the weekend, where they’ll play on the “road” against the White Sox on the South Side.

2. Milwaukee Brewers (22-16); 4-1 this week; 55.8% chance to make postseason

The Brewers had a great week, splitting two games with the Cardinals on each side of a rainout Tuesday before sweeping a three-game set against the Yankees over the weekend, stretching their win streak to four.

Brice Turang remains one of the best hitters in the league, as he led the team with two homers this week, including a walk-off homer on Sunday afternoon against New York. The return of Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn also loomed large this week, as Chourio led the team with eight hits, including three doubles, and Vaughn added three hits, including a homer and a double. Jake Bauers also homered on Saturday night.

Jacob Misiorowski continues to mow down opposing hitters, as he went six scoreless innings in Milwaukee’s win on Friday night, striking out 11 and allowing just two hits and two walks. Aaron Ashby added two more wins to give him an MLB-leading seven on the season, as he totaled five innings in relief, allowing just one unearned run and striking out seven over three appearances. Brandon Sproat also had a scoreless, albeit inefficient, four-inning start against St. Louis, striking out five.

Milwaukee gets Monday off before beginning a nine-game stretch without an off day that stretches to next Thursday. That stretch begins with three games against the Padres in Milwaukee before a six-game road trip takes them to visit the Twins and Cubs.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (23-17); 3-3 this week; 25.3% chance to make postseason

The Cardinals had a pair of series splits against the Brewers and Padres this week, going 1-1 against the Brewers (with a rainout in the middle) before a 2-2 series split in San Diego over the weekend.

Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker each slugged a homer this week, while Iván Herrera led the team with nine hits, including three doubles, driving in four. Nolan Gorman, Nathan Church, and JJ Wetherholt each added five hits on the week, with Gorman and Church each picking up a pair of doubles.

Kyle Leahy made a pair of solid starts, totaling 10 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and just one run allowed. Matthew Liberatore also had a quality start, going six innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts, while Michael McGreevy went six scoreless with nine strikeouts to pick up the win in his start. The bullpen was solid as a whole, as Justin Bruihl, JoJo Romero, Jared Shuster, George Soriano, and Ryne Stanek all had scoreless weeks, totaling 11 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts.

St. Louis gets Monday off before continuing the road trip to Sacramento, where they’ll face the A’s for three games. They then head back home to host the Royals over the weekend.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (22-19); 3-3 this week; 58.5% chance to make postseason

The Pirates had a .500 West Coast road trip this week, taking two of three over the D-backs in Phoenix before dropping two of three to the Giants in San Francisco.

Brandon Lowe led teh Pirate offense with seven hits this week, including two homers, a triple, and a double, driving in six and scoring five runs. Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Joey Bart, and Marcell Ozuna dded a homer each, while Spencer Horwitz added six hits, including three doubles and a triple, driving in six.

Paul Skenes had another strong start against Arizona, going eight scoreless innings with just two hits allowed, striking out seven. Bubba Chandler went 10 innings over two starts, allowing four runs and striking out seven, while Braxton Ashcraft (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) and Mitch Keller (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K) each turned in a quality start and earned the win. Mason Montgomery, Evan Sisk, and Gregory Soto all had scoreless weeks for the bullpen, and Soto also earned two saves over 3 1/3 scoreless frames.

The Pirates now head back home, where they’ll host the Rockies and Phillies for three games each following an off day on Monday.

5. Cincinnati Reds (22-19); 2-5 this week; 16.4% chance to make postseason

After jumping out to an early division lead, the Reds have struggled in May. They lost their first eight games of the month, including sweeps at the hands of NL Central rivals in the Pirates and Cubs. They finally put together a pair of wins to win their three-game set with the Astros over the weekend.

The Reds had no problem hitting homers this week, putting together nine as a team, including two apiece for both JJ Bleday and Spencer Steer. Elly De La Cruz led the team with 11 hits, driving in four. Blake Dunn, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Nathaniel Lowe, Matt McLain, and Sal Stewart each added a homer.

Andrew Abbott made a pair of scoreless starts this week, totaling 11 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts. Chase Burns picked up the other win for Cincy, going six innings with one run allowed and a pair of strikeouts. In relief, Jose Franco, Pierce Johnson, and Luis Mey all had scoreless weeks, totaling eight innings with four strikeouts across the three of them, as Johnson also picked up the only save of the week.

Cincinnati gets the day off on Monday before welcoming the Nationals to town for three games this week. They’ll then hit the road, though they won’t go very far as they visit the Guardians and the Phillies.

Good morning.

Evan Grant writes that, after a series win over the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, the Texas Rangers finished a 40 game gauntlet to begin the season with an opportunity to ascend.

Kennedi Landry writes that the Rangers were treated to a vintage Jacob deGrom performance in the series-clinching finale win over Chicago.

ESPN notes that along with ten strikeouts yesterday, deGrom collected the 1,900th K of his career. deGrom is now the second fastest to reach that total by appearances and innings.

Grant writes about manager Skip Schumaker’s thoughts on the support from his mother Marlene as the Rangers enjoyed a Mother’s Day win on Sunday.

Landry writes that Marlene Schumaker watches every Rangers game which means she’s probably just as impressed with Jacob Latz and as tired of seeing the Rangers waste opportunities with the bases loaded as you are.

Grant notes that Corey Seager is probably due for a day off to reset after suffering through an extended slump in the first quarter of the season.

And, Landry writes that handling the little things to boost their thin margin for error is a way that the Rangers can improve going forward.

Have a nice day!

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

We finished off the week in the black, and with the good weather coming, this is the week to flip those early-season losses to profit, and we need four units this week to do so. It's home run and MLB player props all week, right here. 
 
Julio Rodriguez's market opened way too high today, but there is still time to buy in a great matchup. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso went 114 mph off the bat the last time he saw Ryan Weathers, who missed his last start due to an illness.

These are my favorite home run props and MLB picks for Monday, May 11. 

Best MLB home run props today

Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+520)

I will fade the Houston Astros every chance I get. Their starters are weak, and the bullpen is near the bottom of the barrel. Today, they’re turning to Peter Lambert, who is pitching above expectations and coming off a season-high 104 pitches. The quality could dip today, and right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against him.

Julio Rodríguez will not close at +520 to homer. This number could fall to +400, and I’d still bet it. The right-handed slugger is slashing .348/.375/.717 over his last 11 games with four home runs and five more extra-base hits. His production away from home has also stood out.

If he doesn’t get to Lambert early, the Houston bullpen still ranks among the worst in home runs allowed and has been used heavily over the last two weeks.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+490)

The Polar Bear has treated us well this season, and today vs. New York Yankees southpaw Ryan Weathers is another great spot to smash the Dinger button on the Baltimore Orioles slugger. Weathers missed his last start due to an illness and ranks in the bottom 40 among all MLB starters in both BlastCont% and HR/FB rate. 

There is also a familiarity factor here, as Weathers' last start came against the Orioles, who stacked four runs on him with Pete Alonso taking him deep on a 114-mph laser. The fair price for this four-bagger is around +400, per the projections at Covers. 

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, YES

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

An average week for the Guardians felt like it had a lot more losses than what it really did. That means that some positive moments are definitely needed.

Bazzana Hits Big

After making his Major League debut on April 28th, Guardians’ top prospect Travis Bazzana was struggling to collect his first hit. While he walked twice in two of his first three games, he went hitless in that same amount of time. He collected his first hit, a single, on May 2nd. He began hitting more consistently after that, and it culminated in his first Major League home run on May 8th versus the Minnesota Twins. So far this season, he’s hitting .233/.425/.333 with eight walks and four RBIs.

Aleman Finding Success Early

The Guardians announced on Friday that they would be calling up pitcher Franco Aleman to give the bullpen a boost. He did exactly that in his debut on Sunday, pitching two innings while striking out one and giving up two hits. He did not allow any runs to score, and he kept the Guardians in a spot where they had a chance to at least tie the game (which they did not do). While it’s too early to tell if he can keep this success up throughout the season, he has been extremely promising in Triple-A Columbus so far this season. He’s managed a 0.00 ERA across 12 innings, giving up just one unearned run on three hits. He’s struck out a whopping 18 hitters and walked only four.

Guards Make Big Trade

In a shocking move, the Guardians announced on Saturday that they would be acquiring catcher Patrick Bailey from the San Francisco Giants for Minor League pitcher Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson and a 2026 compensation pick. While he’s only hitting .141/.207/.176 so far this season, he’s averaging a .224/.281/.328 line in his career. He is known for his success behind the plate, however, getting calls outside of the zone without being challenged. The Guardians definitely needed a boost at that catcher’s spot after sending Bo Naylor back to the minors.

Social Media Spotlight

My favorite post from the week comes from the official Guardians account. After Travis Bazzana hit his first Major League home run, the team posted an upside down video of it captioned “For our folks in Australia”.

For our folks in Australia.#GuardsBallpic.twitter.com/qfOtszpoI6

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) May 8, 2026