Dodgers spring training preview: Outfield

Los Angeles, CA - January 21: Former Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker with his new jersey and cap as he is introduced as the newest outfielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers during a press conference at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Wednesday, January 21, 2026. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images) | MediaNews Group via Getty Images

The Dodgers had a clear need on offense, and they filled it by signing the best free agent available. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and his four-year, $240-million contract turned a weakness into a strength. Let’s look at the outfield as spring training nears.

40-man roster outfielders
  • Kyle Tucker RF
  • Andy Pages CF
  • Teoscar Hernández LF
  • Alex Call LF/RF
  • Michael Siani CF
  • Ryan Ward LF/RF/1B
Things to watch

Elevating the floor and ceiling: Dodgers outfielders as a group in 2025 hit .240/.299/.415, and ranked 17th MLB with a 98 wRC+. Upgrading from Michael Conforto to Tucker should work wonders. Tucker has a 130 wRC+ and at least four Wins Above Replacement in each of the last five seasons, the latter even in 2024 when he missed half the season with a fractured right tibia.

Staying healthy: The vast majority of Dodgers position players are in their 30s, but Tucker is 29 and joins 25-year-old Andy Pages in the suddenly more youthful outfield. Teoscar Hernández, now in left field, struggled in a 2025 season that saw him miss time with a groin strain and fouling a ball off his foot. When healthy, Hernández can be a force offensively, and now he’ll be a little further down a much deeper lineup. In addition to the shin injury in 2024, Tucker missed time with the Cubs last season with a calf strain and played through a hand fracture in June that led to a second-half decline.

Room for growth: Andy Pages had a dreadful postseason with just four hits in 51 at-bats, but also made a championship-saving catch in Kool Aid Man fashion in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series in Toronto. Pages and coming off a 27-homer, 4-ish WAR season and is also only 25 years old. There’s a lot to like here, especially when Pages is likely to hit at or near the bottom of the lineup.

Useable depth: The other three outfielders on the 40-man all have minor league options. Alex Call is the one most likely to stick on the bench, with the caveat that the inevitable return of Kiké Hernández hasn’t yet happened. Michael Siani is a defense-first center fielder who could be this year’s Justin Dean, but let’s see how many more times Siani is placed on waivers first.

Will Ward get the call? Ryan Ward had the best of his three seasons in Triple-A Oklahoma City last year in winning Pacific Coast League MVP, but was passed over in favor of several other call-ups with more defensive value before getting added to the 40-man roster in November to avoid losing him to minor league free agency. Ward is a modern-day Maytag repairman in that his best two positions are designated hitter and first base, and the Dodgers have Hall of Famers at those positions. Ward, who turns 28 in three weeks, also can monitor corner outfield space when needed, but now with Tucker the team is well-stocked in both left field and right field as well. There doesn’t appear to be much of a path to playing time for Ward on the Dodgers, but expect the Cactus League — he played in 45 spring training games over the last three years — to be his showcase to other teams who might have room for him.

Tigers' Tarik Skubal smashes MLB contract record in landmark arbitration case

Tarik Skubal won his arbitration case against the Detroit Tigers on Feb. 5, earning a record salary of $32 million after the Tigers requested a 2026 salary of $19 million.

Skubal's victory after a hearing before a three-person panel the day before sets him up for a final year in Detroit before the two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner is expected to receive a record haul in free agency.

Before hitting the market, though, he earned a landmark victory over his team.

The $13 million gap between team and player was a record in salary arbitration, and Skubal's victory was a record for a player who went to a hearing, topping Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s $19.9 million award in 2024. It's also the single highest one-year salary for an arbitration-eligible player, edging Juan Soto's $31 million one-year pact with the Yankees in 2024.

Skubal is certainly worth it: Over the past two seasons, he's struck out 469 batters in 387 1/3 innings, going 31-10 with a 2.30 ERA and winning the AL's pitching triple crown this year. He also led the majors with a 7.30 strikeout-walk ratio and a 0.89 WHIP.

When is Tarik Skubal a free agent?

For one year, Skubal will join forces with top free agent pitcher Framber Valdez, who on the same day Skubal and the Tigers went to trial was agreeing to a three-year, $115 million deal with the Tigers. Valdez's $38.3 million average annual salary is a record for a left-handed pitcher, and will earn more this season than his Cy Young-winning mate.

That should change next year when Skubal hits the market. For now, he's already got a fairly big win in his column.

The three-person arbitration panel is tasked not with determining which salary to award, but rather whether to go higher or lower than the midpoint of the two sides' offers - in this case, $25.5 million. Skubal's body of work clearly moved the panel to favor a salary north of that - and Skubal will be compensated in record fashion for what's likely his final year in Detroit.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tarik Skubal contract: Tigers ace wins historic arbitration hearing

Yankees claim RHP Osvaldo Bido off waivers from Angels

The Yankees continue to tinker with their 40-man roster, claiming right-handed pitcher Osvaldo Bido off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels.

To make room on the roster, infielder Braden Shewmake was designated for assignment. 

Bido, a 30-year-old right-hander who stands at 6-foot-3, has pitched in the majors for both the Pirates and Athletics. 

In 26 appearances (10 starts) with the A's last season, Bido pitched to a 5.87 ERA with 68 strikeouts and 35 walks in 79.2 innings.

It's been a busy offseason for Bido, as he's been claimed by the Braves, Rays, Marlins, Angels, and now the Yankees.

Shewmake, a 27-year-old middle infielder, played in 85 games last season for Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, posting a .680 OPS.

Do the Royals have to respond to the Tigers?

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 25: Gleyber Torres #25 celebrates with Wenceel Pérez #46 and Riley Greene #31 of the Detroit Tigers after the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 25, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Tigers defeated the Guardians 4-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images

We’re trying a new series at Royals Review, a daily mid-day question of the day to hear about your opinions on a fun or pressing question affecting the Royals or baseball in general. Chime in and drop your answers below!

News broke late last night that the Tigers had signed the best remaining free agent, Framber Valdez, to a hefty three-year deal worth $115 million. There’s some concern that this signals the Tigers’ intention to trade away Tarik Skubal, but if they’re going to have both lefties in their rotation, they just became much more formidable. Prior to the move, the Tigers and Royals were seen as about even in their odds to win the division, and it seemed reasonable for the Royals to potentially go into the season without making another move to improve their roster, wait to see how Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen do, and then potentially load up at the deadline. That now seems like a much riskier choice.

One initial reaction from a fellow RR writer was that the Royals should really go get the lefty-mashing Miguel Andujar, but he was signed a few minutes later to the Padres on a one-year/$4 million deal. With Austin Hays and Harrison Bader getting signed last week, free-agent, right-handed-hitting outfielders have essentially gone extinct.

I threw together this trade idea last night in response to the moves:

Do the Royals need to make a trade? Or is there a free agent out there you’d still be interested in? Or would you be OK if the Royals continued to wait for the opportune moment to strike?

50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings: Brian McCann

NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 24: Brian McCann #34 of the New York Yankees celebrates his tenth inning game winning three run home run against the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium on August 24, 2014 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The 2013 New York Yankees finished the season 85-77, good for third place in the American League East and on the outside looking in at the playoffs when the regular season concluded. Their “leaderboard” is a veritable who’s who of guys who certainly played in the major leagues. 36-year-old’s Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay, 34-year-old Vernon Wells, and -1.5 bWAR (seriously!) Eduardo Núñez are among the names you’d see penciled into the lineup most nights.

Catcher, like much of the Yankee lineup, was an offensive black hole. Chris Stewart, Austin Romine, and John Ryan Murphy combined to provide basically nothing after Francisco Cervelli went down with a broken hand in late April. Cervelli, who was off to a torrid start at the plate (141 OPS+) later hurt himself rehabbing while also getting swept up in the Biogenesis brouhaha, missing the remainder of the season due to injury and suspension. As 2014 approached, it’s fair to say catcher was a position in flux.

Brian McCann
Signing Date: December 3, 2013
Contract: 5 years, $85 million

It’s funny how time plays tricks on memory. When I sat down to write this, I remembered the Yankees signing McCann after Robinson Canó jilted them for more years and more money with the Seattle Mariners. In my mind’s eye, McCann was part of a pivot that involved Hall of Famer Carlos Beltrán and former BoSox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

That was not the case. The Yankees signed McCann and Ellsbury before knowing for certain they were not going to be able to retain their all-world second baseman. That said, they definitely had reason to be pessimistic Robbie would remain in pinstripes after word leaked in mid-November that he wanted a 10-year deal worth $310 million.

McCann entered free agency with an excellent pedigree (albeit while also being a bit of a hardass at times). A seven-time All-Star and winner of five Silver Slugger Awards behind the plate with the Atlanta Braves, McCann put up a 117 OPS+ with 176 bombs in his first nine seasons from 2005-13, making for a remarkably consistent 20-plus homer bat. Meanwhile, as he matured behind the plate, he gained a reputation as one of baseball’s finest pitch framers.

The combination of offensive prowess, defensive skill, and leadership was enough that McCann was expected to command serious money in free agency. Indeed, some expected him to break nine figures with at least a six-year commitment from whoever signed him.

Ultimately, McCann did not quite hit those figures. But he certainly did well for himself, getting $85 million over five years from the Yankees.

On the surface, it looked like the Yankees had answer their question at catcher for the next half-decade. Even then though, there were warning signs.

McCann entered free agency having played the least number of games over the previous two seasons since he became a full-time player. Worse, while he bounced back in 2013, his bat disappeared in 2012.

In late October, Benjamin Hoffman warned in the New York Times about the potential downside of a McCann signing, writing that “given his position, his recent decline in durability and an expected drop in production as he enters his 30s, he appears to be the most likely of this off-season’s big-ticket free agents to end up becoming an albatross for the team that signs him.”

Hoffman’s prediction did not quite come to pass, though McCann never approached his previous offensive heights with the Yankees (or after his tenure in New York, for that matter). His bat hovered around league average for his three seasons in pinstripes. Combined with his defense and positional value, by FanGraphs WAR he compiled roughly 8.0 fWAR over his three seasons in the Bronx. And he did have his moments.

Meanwhile, the Yankees continued to flirt with mediocrity. In McCann’s three seasons in the Bronx, the club never won more than 87 games, which they managed in 2015. That year, they made the playoffs only to lose the American League Wild Card Game to soon-to-be mortal enemies the Houston Astros. Four pitchers combined to shut the Yankees out 3-0. For his part, McCann went 0-for-4 in his only playoff game as a Yankee.

2016 saw the electrifying emergence of Gary Sánchez, who clubbed 20 home runs and finished second in AL Rookie of Year voting despite only playing 53 games. With “The Kraken” in the Bronx, McCann realized his time as the Yankees’ main catcher had come to an end and he asked for a trade.

The Yankee front office accommodated his request, and during the offseason dealt McCann to the aforementioned Astros for a pair of pitching prospects, Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman. Because no good dead goes unpunished, McCann came back to haunt the Yankees.

Through the first six games of the 2017 ALCS, Yankee pitching kept their former backstop in check. But in Game 7, back in Houston, McCann broke the Yankees’ backs. Already trailing 2-0 after an Evan Gattis home run the previous inning and a Jose Altuve dinger earlier in the fifth, McCann came to the plate, facing Tommy Kahnle, who’d replaced starter CC Sabathia. Needing one out to escape the frame and with McCann down to his final strike, Kahnle instead surrendered a two-run double that extended the Astros lead to 4-0. On a night when Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. combined to throw a three-hit shutout, that was more than enough.

For whatever it’s worth, McCann was not thrilled with the Astros’ infamous sign-stealing scheme and tried to push back on it with fellow veteran and former Yankees teammate Carlos Beltrán. Longtime friend and catcher Evan Gattis also noted McCann’s discomfort:

“I could tell it was eating him up,” Gattis said. “He didn’t like it one bit. … He’s played so long, and he just understands what it takes to get to the big leagues, and he’s got a lot of respect for ballplayers. You could just tell (he was opposed to the cheating).”

This does not fully exonerate McCann, as he still benefitted from the whole endeavor and it’s not as though his 2017 at-bats were completely devoid of “bangs.” How angry should you be about McCann being on those 2017 Astros? That’s really a question that you can only answer yoruself.

As it stood, McCann won his first and only World Series that year and played two more seasons before retiring, fittingly, as an Atlanta Brave. In his first year on the ballot for the Hall of Fame, McCann received only seven votes (1.8%), falling off future ballots.

But make no mistake. He was a Hall of Very Good catcher and the Yankees have made far worse free agent signings over the years.

References

Brian McCann. Baseball-Reference.

Hoch, Bryan. “Yanks deal McCann to Astros for pitching prospects.” MLB. November 17, 2016.

Hoffman, Benjamin. “With Gritty Slugger Brian McCann, It’s Buyer Beware.” New York Times. October 31, 2013.

Jaffe, Jay. “JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Brian McCann.” FanGraphs. December 20, 2024.

Waldstein, David. “How Yanks May Proceed, Cano or No Cano.” New York Times. December 4, 2013.

Waldstein, David. “Yankees Set to Resume Cano Negotiations, With Sides Still Far Apart.” New York Times. November 18, 2013.


See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.

2026 Chicago Cubs player profiles: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Tenth is the series. Today we look at the Cubs’ young center fielder.

Peter Henry Crow-Armstrong, the first-round pick of the New York Mets in 2020, came on like gangbusters in the first half of 2025. His act flagged badly toward the end, but he turned in a marvelous season that raises expectations and anxieties about his 2026 campaign.

He needs to improve his in-zone contact some, stop swinging at so many bad pitches, and use his considerable bat speed and hand-eye coordination to make better-quality contact. Fans hope that he can learn a little more patience at the plate, and all of the above point to him not getting himself out. Travis Sawchik had a good piece about that, also appearing in Cub Tracks.

The guy’s already a star. Really, given the hype and the hope, he was a star before he got to the majors, and his skills and considerable charisma have served him well so far. He can do things nobody else can.

Some consistency would be infinitely desirable. Maybe a couple of Ian Happ specials rather than a whole second half? Hmm. A season of that and the same numbers or better, and we’re talking about a superstar.

His stellar defense props up his WAR numbers. BBRef has him at 8.1 bWAR, with PCA having amassed 6.0 of that total in 2025, and Fangraphs submits a 7.8 fWAR lifetime total, with 5.4 coming last year, but it isn’t all about his defense. PCA turned in a spectacular 2025. Most projections have him sacrificing some power and maintaining his RBI total, with the aggregate something like 25 HR/85+ RBI in their sights.

Certainly we could all live with that, without the post All-Star Game dropoff.

I’ve long thought that he was just tired, and could use a little more rest. Maybe Kevin Alcántara or Dylan Carlson, depending on who wins that competition, could spell Pete against tough lefties or once a week, and give him a breather, and the Cubs won’t lose so much at the plate or defensively.

Let’s hope for a happier ending.

Royals bring back catcher Luke Maile on a minor league deal

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 11: Luke Maile #17 of the Kansas City Royals runs out a single during the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 11, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Royals announced they have brought back catcher Luke Maile on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Maile appeared in 25 games with the Royals last year, hitting .244/.346/.356 with one home run in 54 plate appearances.

The 34-year-old has played in parts of ten seasons in the big leagues with the Rays, Blue Jays, Brewers, Guardians, and Reds. In 458 career MLB games, he is a lifetime. 209/.277/.320 hitter. Maile is a very solid defensive backstop who has thrown out nearly 30 percent of base-stealing attempts in his career. Last year he excelled in pitch framing metrics.

The Royals had previously signed MLB veteran Jorge Alfaro, who has produced more with the bat over his career, to a minor league deal. The team will likely have Salvador Perez split time behind the plate with rookie Carter Jensen most of the time. But the team may carry a third catcher for the days Salvy is at first base or DH, as they often did last year when Maile was on the team.

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal jokes with new big-money teammate: 'Dinners on you'

Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is more than happy to welcome another top-tier left-hander to the team's starting rotation, even if newly signed free agent Framber Valdez will be making a little more money this season than the two-time reigning AL Cy Young award winner.

"Dinners on you," Skubal said in a post on his Instagram story shortly after the Valdez signed his three-year, $115 million deal with the Tigers.

Skubal is in for a pretty sizable payday himself, with his salary arbitration hearing decision expected to be resolved this week.  He's seeking $32 million for the upcoming season while the Tigers have countered at $19 million.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal has won the American League Cy Young award each of the past two seasons.

The signing gives Detroit arguably the best 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation in the American League. But there's still a question of how long they'll be on the roster together.

Skubal is a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, and the money the Tigers paid to land Valdez could be a sign they expect him to take over the No. 1 starter role if Skubal leaves.

For now though, Tigers fans can relish the idea of both pitchers carrying the team toward a possible World Series appearance.

And the two lefties can look forward to an enjoyable − and likely very expensive − meal together.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tigers' Tarik Skubal jokes about Framber Valdez's big new contract

Shedding new light on Clayton Kershaw’s infamous postseason record

October 7, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) pitches the second inning against the Atlanta Braves in game four of the National League divisional series playoff baseball game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Unlike in movies, in real life, the hero doesn’t always triumph over adversity in the end, and even when he does, it might not happen as neatly as one would have hoped to build the perfect storyline. No matter how you slice it, Clayton Kershaw’s postseason career has been one of primarily heartbreak, but we mustn’t let it overshadow its finest moments, of which there were plenty, definitely far more than he gets credit for. Here’s an intro to a series of articles that’ll break down specific memorable Kershaw performances in the postseason that might not debunk his narrative of woes in October but at least add some perspective to it.

On a very basic level, all those shortcomings became irrelevant the moment Kershaw won his first ring in 2020 might reasonably be pointed out. The future Hall of Famer also later went on to be involved in two other championship teams, with minimal roles — injured in 2024, and coming out of the bullpen last season. As fulfilling as those rings likely were, Kershaw, the individual, won them at a different stage in his career. By the time he reached the mountain top for the first time, however impactful and crucial he still was in 2020, the narrative had basically been set in stone, and he was no longer at or particularly near the height of his powers.

Sadly, missing a few postseasons at his prime as the Dodgers as an organization had yet to truly take off, particularly so once the new ownership group really established itself, Kershaw still got plenty of opportunities to be the leading man on a postseason team. Time and time again, those opportunities with rays of hope on different levels ultimately met the same bitter end, oftentimes with the southpaw undone by the lack of support that became pivotal to World Series wins in later years. Certain remarks and a more meticulous evaluation aren’t the specialty of the common fan, and thus, the simplest explanation is the commonly accepted one — Kershaw couldn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Time of yearIPERAFIPPA/HRBB rateK rate
Regular season2855 1/32.532.8548.06.3%27.1%
Postseason196 2/34.623.9825.16.7%26.5%

Anyone taking a journey back through those playoff runs of the middle to late 2010s will quickly recognize a second theme emerging right next to that of eventual eliminations. Without fail and with teams that in no way resembled the current powerhouses the Dodgers can routinely send out there for a postseason run, Kershaw found a way to deliver magnificent outings that rank alongside the very best in the 21st century, not just among Dodger starters but all of baseball.

Another overlooked element is one to which Kershaw was one of the pioneers, alongside the likes of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, that of prolonged exposure to the postseason setting due to an ever-expanding postseason bracket. Out of the three, Kershaw is easily the one who suffered the most in the playoffs, which is justifiable given that this narrative is in no way built around a house of cards, something we’ve already established. Still, it’s no wonder all three of these Hall of Fame starters have postseason ERAs significantly over their regular-season numbers.

As was the case with Kershaw and the other two, those numbers overshadow many instances in which these elite pitchers delivered at the highest possible level on the biggest stage against the toughest opponents. Here we’ll comb through some of the greatest Kershaw postseason performances and the context around those games.

FanGraphs has lofty expectations for 2026 Braves

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 09: Chris Sale #51 of the Atlanta Braves smiles in the dugout during the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Truist Park on September 3, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Quiet as kept, FanGraphs has released their updated MLB Playoff Odds for the upcoming 2026 season. As of right now with the offseason beginning to transition into the ever-optimistic days of spring training, FanGraphs’ projection model feels like the Atlanta Braves should have very good reason to feel optimistic heading into the regular season.

While FanGraphs figures that the American League is shaping up to be a big ol’ Battle Royale between four AL East teams (Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles), the Tigers and the Mariners, the picture in the NL figures to be a bit clearer. As of right now, while the Dodgers are the obvious favorites to not just win the National League but retain their World Series crown yet again, the projection model figures that the Braves have the best shot at dethroning the Southern California juggernaut.

FanGraphs is currently projecting that the Braves will win 92 games (I’m rounding up and will do so for the rest of the article, when necessary) and lose 71 — giving them a 47 percent chance to reclaim the NL East title, a 39 percent chance to get a bye, a 40 percent shot at a wild card berth and then an 87 percent shot at simply making the Postseason. All that culminates with FanGraphs’ model giving the Braves an 11 percent shot at winning the World Series — good for second-best odds in not just the NL but in all of baseball right now. Now granted, the Dodgers are currently standing head-and-shoulders over the field with a projected 27 percent shot at winning the World Series but still, Atlanta’s odds are nothing to sneeze at.

It also goes to show that the model appears to be very impressed with the job that the Braves have done to fortify their bench in order to withstand the losses of both Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy for the initial portion of the season. It also goes to show the faith that the model has in Atlanta’s star players performing like stars going forward. ZiPS is currently projecting Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin to lead the way in terms of batter WAR and they also figure that Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach should serve as a pretty formidable top three for Atlanta’s rotation when it comes to pitcher WAR.

Now, as the saying goes: You can’t play the game on a spreadsheet. The Braves have had some rosy projections for a few years now and they’ve managed to come well short of those projections for the past couple of seasons. The team still has to go out there on the diamond and get the job done and they’ll of course have to deal with two very tough divisional foes in the form of the Mets (projected for 90 wins) and the Phillies (projected for 87). This certainly won’t be a cakewalk for the Braves and ultimately it’ll just come down to this team living up to the back of their respective baseball cards. We all know that this core group of players is capable of doing great things on the field — we’ve seen it over the years. Again, they’ve just got to get the job done.

Either way, the Braves once again have some high expectations heading into the upcoming season. Here’s hoping that they’ll meet those expectations so we can have ourselves another fun season around here. We’ll see what happens!

ZiP-a-dee-doo-dah

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) | Getty Images

FanGraphs has given us some projections as to how the 2026 season will go for the Phillies. One projection is optimistic about their chances at winning a third straight division title, while the other thinks that run ends at two. So as not to be accused of being hostile to those with a more pessimistic outlook on the team, I’ll discuss both.

Dan Szymborski annually creates his ZiPS projections, which evaluates a full range of outcomes for each player on each team, and using that, runs a million simulations of the season. ZiPS seems to like the Phillies, predicting a 91-win season and a first-place finish in the East.

Some of the key ZiPS predictions for individual Phillies:

  • Trea Turner will lead the team in WAR, mostly because the defensive improvements of 2025 will stick.
  • Bryce Harper will once again not be elite, hitting 29 home runs and playing poorly on defense.
  • Justin Crawford will have a decent rookie season with 1.6 WAR.
  • Zack Wheeler makes 21 starts, and is solid, if not spectacular with a 3.43 ERA.
  • Andrew Painter makes 24 starts with a 4.80 ERA.

It’s somewhat confusing that ZiPS likes the Phillies’ chances considering it doesn’t seem to be especially optimistic about any of their individual players’ seasons – except perhaps for Adolis Garcia (a projected 28 home runs) and J.T. Realmuto (.742 OPS with 15 home runs).

FanGraphs has also released their playoff odds for 2026, and these are less positive towards the Phillies’ chances. They expect the Phillies to fall to third place in the East behind the Braves and Mets. They give the Phillies an 18.9% chance of winning the division, and a 65.4% chance of making the playoffs. Those playoff chances are fourth best in the National League behind the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers (99.1%!).

It makes sense that they’re so bullish on the Braves. That team has been ravaged by injuries the past two seasons, and if everyone on the roster is healthy and playing close to capabilities, they’ve probably got the most talent, particularly in the starting rotation.

Nor is it a major surprise that the Mets are ahead of them. Their lineup is expected to hit a lot of home runs, and they have a strong pitching rotation with the addition of Freddy Peralta. (Although Fangraphs doesn’t think Peralta will have that good of a year.)

If this depresses you, it would be helpful to look at Fangraph’s projections for the 2025 season. They thought the Phillies had just a 21.1% chance of winning the division, while giving the Braves a 64.2% chance. And in 2024, they thought the Braves had an 88.8% of winning the East. (Like I said, the Braves have suffered a lot of misfortune in recent years, not that I’m complaining.)

I suspect that most Phillies fans will treat these projections the way many Americans treat information these days: Take whatever matches up with your pre-existing notions, and treat that as valid, while largely ignoring whatever doesn’t. If you already believed the Phillies would be a playoff team, then this helps to reinforce that belief. If you think the Phillies are on the decline and they’re going to fall behind the Mets and Braves, well, this provides some ammunition for you as well!

Eight months from now, we’ll know which side was correct.

Tampa Bay Rays reveal renderings of another new stadium proposal

In an ongoing Central Florida tradition dating back nearly two decades, the Tampa Bay Rays unveiled another round of ballpark renderings Feb. 5, terming the site on the Hillsborough College campus in Tampa as their "forever home" on social media.

Naturally, there are bottomless hoops to run through and billions of dollars in necessary funding to get to forever.

The site on Dale Mabry Boulevard is certainly desirable, perched just north of the New York Yankees' spring training facility (and temporary Rays home field in 2025) and across the boulevard from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Raymond James Stadium.

The Rays pulled out of their most recent foray - a redevelopment of the Gas Plant District near Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg - after 2024 hurricanes and other developments dulled their enthusiasm. 

Digital rendering of Tampa Bay Rays' proposed new ballpark

Digital rendering of Tampa Bay Rays' proposed new ballpark

Digital rendering of Tampa Bay Rays' proposed new ballpark

Digital rendering of Tampa Bay Rays' proposed new ballpark

The Rays estimate the 31,000-seat stadium project will cost $2.3 billion, and new owner Patrick Zalupski has offered to cover roughly half of that cost along with overruns. That leaves more than $1.5 billion to be financed, leaving the Rays' quixotic search for a new home more or less where it's always been.

There may be a few new guns on their side, however.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a longtime friend of Zalupski, appeared at a Tuesday press conference with Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred and intoned that "baseball belongs in Tampa Bay." DeSantis appointed Zalupski to the University of Florida board of trustees in 2023.

That opens the window, perhaps, for partial state funding of the project, something previous Rays efforts largely lacked as they aimed for sites in Tampa and St. Petersburg while mining Hillsborough and Pinellas counties for public funds.

“State money, in terms of baseball, is not something that we’ve done. But I think when you look at (Hillsborough College), the reimagining, some of the buildings need massive amounts of deferred maintenance,” DeSantis said Tuesday. “I’d rather put that money to the reimagined campus than trying to rehab some of the old buildings.”

The Rays' project would entail the stadium, a rehabbing of Hillsborough College buildings and a mixed-use development popular with major league franchises to maximize profit. The Rays and Hillsborough College's board of trustees approved a non-binding memorandum of understanding Jan. 20.

DeSantis raised the specter of competition from a neighboring metropolitan area - "Orlando really, really wants this," he said - while Manfred, an old hand at the Rays' stadium efforts who wants the franchise settled and expansion to occur before he retires at the end of this decade, was publicly bullish.

“The level of support for the concept they’re dealing with here is really, really high compared to some of the other efforts,” he told the Tampa Bay Times.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Rays new stadium renderings revealed: See Tampa Bay proposed ballpark

John Wathan elected to Royals Hall of Fame

UNSPECIFIED - CIRCA 1984: John Wathan #12 of the Kansas City Royals poses for this portrait before an Major League Baseball game circa 1984. Wathan played for the Royals from 1976-85. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) | Getty Images

John Wathan, who served as a player, coach, manager, broadcaster, and front office executive in Kansas City from 1971 to 2022, has been elected into the Royals Hall of Fame.

“After 52 years in baseball and 47 with the Royals, I can honestly say I have always bled Royal blue,” Wathan said in a statement. “This is the ultimate honor for living as a Royal all those years. I couldn’t begin to thank everyone involved on this journey with me. It has been a real privilege to be with one organization that long. It is a rare feat and one that I have been so proud of for all these years.”

Wathan was drafted by the Royals out of the University of San Diego and made his MLB debut in 1976. He quickly became a valuable catcher known for his rare speed. His 36 stolen bases in 1982 are still the single-season MLB record for most steals by a catcher. He helped win a pennant in 1980, hitting .305 and playing all over the field, earning MVP votes. He won a title in 1985, his last season in the big leagues. He retired after ten seasons, having hit .262/.318/.343 with 21 home runs and 105 steals in 860 games. His nickname was “Duke” given to him because of his terrific impersonation of actor John Wayne.

After retiring, Wathan joined the coaching staff the next year, and took over as manager in 1987. He led the team to 92 wins in 1989, the third-most wins in a single season in club history. He managed the team until he was dismissed midway through the 1991 season, with a career record of 287-270 (.515).

After a brief stint coaching and managing the Angels, Wathan joined the Royals broadcasting team in 1996. He later joined the scouting department and became an advisor in the front office. His son Dusty was a catcher with the Royals in 2002 and is now a coach with the Phillies. His other son, Derek, also played in the Royals organization.

Wathan will be the 32nd player inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame and he will be honored with a ceremony this summer at a date to be announced.

Wathan was not one of the nine names on the ballot presented last December, but under the voting rules, “At the discretion of the Royals Hall of Fame Executive Board a separate Veterans Committee vote will consider the candidacy of non-player personnel and alumni who previously received Royals Hall of Fame Voting (Regular Phase) votes but are no longer eligible for election in that manner.”

How Long Can Astros, Paredes, Walker Be Patient?

HOUSTON, TEXAS - MAY 09: Isaac Paredes #15 of the Houston Astros celebrates with Christian Walker #8 after the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Daikin Park on May 09, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It’s starting to look like none of the parties will have a choice.

The Astros have a logjam in the infield, that isn’t news.

They have been open to discussions on both Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker, that also isn’t news.

However, we are now 6 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training and the Astros still don’t have an answer for their logjam other than the idea of keeping both players on the main roster and having them find ways to share time and try to get them as many ABs as possible.

Neither player is going to be happy with that kind of arrangement. They may not have a choice.

Astros GM Dana Brown doesn’t want to move Paredes, as he likes Paredes hitter profile (especially at Daikin Park). He also doesn’t want to eat a bunch of money for Christian Walker to play somewhere else and get nothing in return (previous reports have stated there has been little interest in Walker on the trade market).

Where does that leave the team and the players? In a big holding pattern.

Brown has to do what is in the best interest of the franchise, and that isn’t giving away a strong offensive profile player nor is it writing checks for guys not to play here.

Walker led the team in HR and RBI last season, and is a Gold Glove caliber defender. He posted a second half OPS of .799, which was the best on the team for those who played the entire second half. It’s not like Walker stinks, or is unplayable. He had a bad first half (possibly influenced by an oblique injury suffered late in Spring Training), he isn’t a bad player.

That bad first half, however, has his value at it’s lowest on the trade market, making his contract appear bloated to other teams (and maybe the Astros as well). It is not farfetched to think a return to form is possible or that his second half can be translated to a full season.

A timeshare is different than a platoon. Platoons are based on righty/lefty batters and matchups. A timeshare doesn’t necessarily include those elements, it’s simply there aren’t enough spots in the lineup and both guys need ABs.

A timeshare of Walker and Paredes is not necessarily going to have good results, though it could. Maybe the extra time off helps Walker stay stronger as an older player (though that didn’t seem to be an issue last season) and maybe the extra time off (especially early in the season) allows Paredes and the team to make sure he is fully recovered from the torn hamstring he suffered last season that he valiantly tried to play through at the end of the year.

The Astros also have other players on the infield who have had injury issues. Jose Altuve will be 36 and has had injury issues in the past, had an injury he played through at the end of the year, and manager Joe Espada lamented the fact he had to play Altuve 155 games last season. Altuve does need some more time off, to keep him both healthy and productive.

Jeremy Pena suffered a fractured rib from a HBP and an oblique strain that cost him over a month of the season, and if the oblique had not happened at the very end of the year could have easily resulted in more missed time.

I’m sure I don’t have to tell an Astros fan (or Twins fan or Mets fan or Giants fan) about Carlos Correa’s injury history.

It is very possible that the Astros have enough injuries that they need to play musical chairs with their lineup and having both Walker and Paredes to fill those chairs would be paramount in overcoming those injuries and maintaining a viable offense.

Still, it is a situation neither player will want.

Dana Brown may find the trade market to open up during Spring Training as teams deal with injuries or performances they deem untenable. This could on through late in Spring Training. It could go on through the season. Brown can’t force the issue and make a below value move just to make a move, though.

For now, everyone just has to wait.

When did the Red Sox abandon their quest for a power bat?

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 26: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 26, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Let me preface this by saying there’s still a little bit of offseason left. The Red Sox could turn around at any moment, make a stunning trade for a big stick, and instantly shift the narrative. But for now, the offseason is beginning to solidify, and it doesn’t look good for anybody hoping the front office would improve the middle of the lineup.

Around baseball, we’ve seen the following moves in just the first few days of February: The Red Sox sent Jordan Hicks packing in a salary dump to the White Sox, Eugenio Suarez signed back with the Reds, the Mariners acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals in a three team deal with the Rays, Framber Valdez signed a $115 million contract with the Tigers (an absolutely wild thing for Detroit to do mere hours after taking Tarik Skubal to arbitration), and the Red Sox agreed to a one -year deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa for $6 million.

So to summarize this action from my perspective: The Red Sox cleared some payroll space with Hicks, the last big power bat went off the free agent board, the last big starting pitching prize went off the free agent board, the Cardinals moved the last infielder they’re likely to move this winter, and the Red Sox used the money they saved on Hicks for 2026 and gave it to Kiner-Falefa.

With that, there are no more big ticket items left in free agency, and opposing teams are increasingly unlikely to to pursue elaborate deals with each passing day. The window is still open for more trades of course, but they will become increasingly difficult to pull off as we approach spring training and the World Baseball Classic.

So it raises the question: When did the front office accept that the lineup was going to look like this? When did they become tolerant of this much missing thump? I ask not in anger, but in genuine curiosity.

My anger already peaked back when they let Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso go to the Mid Atlantic, couldn’t align with Arizona to get a deal done for Ketel Marte, and allowed negations with Alex Bregman to fall apart to the point he went to the Cubs. Once those things happened, I knew I wasn’t going to be happy with any of the obvious solutions left on the table.

Quick aside on that topic. Earlier this week Dan asked our Over The Monster (OTM) community if the Red Sox should have pursued Eugenio Suarez, and I gotta say, I’m thrilled they didn’t! In addition to his obnoxious strikeout numbers, Suarez also manages to ground into an above average number of double plays while providing well below average baserunning and defense. The only thing he does well is hit for power, and with his 35th birthday coming up later this year, that’s liable to disappear at any moment. This is a bullet dodged as far as I’m concerned!

So to be honest, I’ve mostly spent the last couple of weeks waiting and seeing where the chips land so we can get on with things. And now that the concrete appears to be drying, I’m left wondering exactly how this winter played out inside the walls of Fenway. Specifically, when did the decision makers abandon the quest for a big bat?

Did they go into the offseason knowing the main focus would be on pitching and defense, and then just spin fiction in December when they talked about giving a boost to the offense? Did they completely misread the market for sluggers like Schwarber and Alonso and decide the contracts weren’t worth it? Did they consider Willson Contreras, a guy who has never hit 25 home runs in a season, an acceptable pivot to check the right-handed power box? Did they think Bregman would take their offer all the way until the end and then were left without a backup plan when he didn’t?

There are so many compelling questions about the timeline here and they all impact my faith in the front office to build a championship team going forward. Oddly, I’d almost feel better if they lied and had already decided going into the winter that they were building a team completely centered around pitching and defense. In this world, their top priority was always run prevention, and they were fully accepting they might go into spring with a lineup that would still need improvement as the season progressed, particularly with the uncertainty of Triston Casas and the question marks surrounding the performance of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell in 2026.

Of course, this flies directly in the face of the comments they made back at the end of 2025, but this organization is known for spewing BS on a consistent basis, so it almost makes the most sense if they were just lying again here.

The other extreme is, of course, that they have absolutely no idea what they’re doing, but I’m less inclined to believe that because, despite some serious question marks surrounding the options they’ve let slide off the board, this roster is actually really, really solid. Incomplete? Sure! Pieces that still don’t fit like a fresh puzzle? Yep! A very annoying lack of power? Yes, again.

But if you can get beyond all that, and I was only able to do so after spending the whole month of January seething, their pitching and defense appears to be the real deal. Perhaps as good as we’ve seen from a Red Sox squad. Here’s their current starting pitching depth in the general order I’d expect them to be deployed for now:

  • Garrett Crochet
  • Ranger Suarez
  • Sonny Gray
  • Brayan Bello
  • Johan Oviedo
  • Connelly Early
  • Payton Tolle
  • Kutter Crawford
  • Kyle Harrison
  • Patrick Sandoval
  • Tanner Houck

And that’s before you add in the fact they have Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman closing things out in the back half of the bullpen.

Add in the very underwhelming signing of Kiner-Falefa (at least from an offensive perspective), and they can also run a defense out there that includes Rafaela, Anthony and Abreu in the outfield, and Story, Mayer, Kiner-Falefa and Contreras in the infield. There’s not a single subpar glove in that bunch with the majority of them being above average (and in some cases well above average) fielders.

In other words, this is a legitimate run prevention unit! They’re going to win a bunch of tight, low scoring games, even if they don’t have thump in the middle of the order. Can you imagine if the Sox would have just communicated this better? I’m not here to say people would be happy with the Kiner-Falefa signing, but he’d look much more like one of the last missing pieces to the puzzle if the product promised was specifically focused on the defensive side of the ball.

I’m still really irked by the underwhelming nature of the middle of this lineup no matter how you stack the pieces, but I also think they could add a bat midseason, which is a heck of a lot easier to do than add a big arm.

So I’ll ask one more time, when did the Red Sox decide a big bat wasn’t the priority?