Category: Baseball

Full Spring Training is officially underway with all pitchers, catchers, and position players in Fort Myers to get the Twins season started. This team, as always, is full of potential and hope for a strong 2026, but there remain a few distinct roles to be filled. Let’s break down the projected Opening Day roster at the start of Spring Training.

(Note: anyone in italics is a non-roster invitee that would need to be added to the 40-man roster before Opening Day)

Starting Pitchers

• Locks (4): Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson
• In contention (4): Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel
• Out (9): Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, Marco Raya, John Klein, Cory Lewis, Trent Baker, Christian MacLeod

The top 3 in the rotation are as locked as possible. SWR probably should be a “near lock” but I think it’s his spot to lose with so many questions behind him. The splitter he added in the second half last year was quietly his best pitch and could help him take things up a level.

The final rotation spot will come down largely to health. Festa and Zebby have flashed frontline ability over the past two seasons, but both have durability questions and Festa missed the end of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He’ll be built up as a starter, but I think is bullpen bound due to health concerns. Zebby and Abel have the best stuff, but have been hit very hard in their limited MLB time. As such, Bradley probably has a leg up here. 

Zebby, Abel, and Morris are likely the next men up for the rotation. Top pitching prospect Prielipp will see MLB time too, but likely out of them ‘pen after already having two UCL reconstructions in his young career. 

Relief Pitchers

• Locks (6): Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Cole Sands, Anthony Banda, Kody Funderburk, Eric Orze
• In contention (13): Travis Adams, Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, Marco Raya, David Festa, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Chafin, Julian Merryweather, Matt Bowman, Dan Altavilla, Cody Laweryson, Grant Hartwig, Andrew Bash, Raul Brito
• Out (1): Matt Canterino (IL) 

Almost no one is out of contention here because there are two WIDE open bullpen slots for whoever can take them. Left-handers Prielipp and Rojas’ chance of making the team straight out of camp took a hit with the additions of Rogers, Banda, and Chafin over the past few weeks. Combined with Funderburk, they need righty arms more than anything.

The only reason Hendriks isn’t a lock is because of his health. He only threw 14 innings last season with the Red Sox after barely pitching in 2023-2024 due to a cancer scare and Tommy John surgery, but flashed his strong breaking balls as usual. If he’s healthy, he will likely close games for the Twins. 

Your other choices for the final bullpen spot come down to pitchers who have good stuff with bad results (Festa, Merryweather, Brito) or bad stuff with better results (Chafin, Bowman, Altavilla, Laweryson, Hartwig). Given the lack of raw stuff in the bullpen as it stands, I think they take a gamble on the first group.

Catchers

• Locks (2): Ryan Jeffers, Victor Caratini
• In contention: none
• Out (6): Alex Jackson, David Bañuelos, Ricardo Olivar, Noah Cardenas, Patrick Winkel, Andrew Cossetti

Put it in pen. Even if there’s an injury, just sub in Jackson for whoever is out to start the season. This is the easiest group to project by far.

Infielders

• Locks (5): Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Kody Clemens
• In contention (4): Ryan Kreidler, Austin Martin, Tristan Gray, Orlando Arcia
• Out (5): Eric Wagaman, Aaron Sabato, Gio Urshela, Tanner Schobel, Kalen Culpepper

Wagaman doesn’t have a role in the infield, maybe in the outfield. Same could be said for Martin, but I wonder if Shelton gives him one last try at second base with their needs here. Clemens can’t play shortstop, unfortunately, but he should get plenty of time at 2B and 3B throughout the season.

The only real question here is who can provide any semblance of life as a utility man behind Brooks Lee. Ryan Kreidler, Tristan Gray, and Orlando Arcia will battle for the honor throughout Spring Training, but don’t be surprised if the Twins make an outside addition still. 

Outfielders

• Locks (3): Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach (for now)
• Near locks (3): Alan Roden, Austin Martin, James Outman
• In contention (2): Eric Wagaman, Kyler Fedko
• Out (5): Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Hendry Mendez, Walker Jenkins, Kala’i Rosario

I expect to see plenty of Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez with the Twins this year, but they all need some more seasoning in AAA first. Fedko had a breakout 2025 in St. Paul, but sits behind Wagaman as a right-handed platoon partner for OF/1B. 

Larnach is a lock for now because I still think he’ll get dealt to an outfield-needy contender before Opening Day. If he’s with the Twins, he’s obviously a lock. Roden’s fate is tied to Larnach’s as another lefty corner outfielder. In any other scenario he would be the Opening Day left fielder, but that is now Larnach’s spot with the acquisitions of Josh Bell and Victor Caratini taking up most of the 1B/DH reps.

Martin finished 2025 as one of the Twins’ most consistent position players. There’s no place for him to start, but he will start in an outfield corner against every lefty and plenty of righties as players need days off. Outman likely is a lock as well as the only other player who can play a good CF behind Buxton. Both of them could be pushed out due to roster needs elsewhere, though Outman is out of minor league options.

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Final Roster Projection 1.0

Bold = camp battles

SP (5): Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Taj Bradley

RP (8): Rogers, Topa, Sands, Banda, Funderburk, Orze, Liam Hendriks, David Festa

C (2): Jeffers, Caratini

IF (6): Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Clemens, Tristan Gray

OF (5): Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Austin Martin, James Outman

Martin and Outman get Opening Day spots thanks to their versatility and ability to provide late game value off the bench with defense and baserunning. Bradley beats out Zebby for the final rotation spot. Hendriks is healthy and Festa shines in short spurts to give the Twins some electricity at the end of games. 

Most controversially, I have Gray as the final position player. Kreidler is a marginal defender at shortstop while Gray shines there. He also has the potential to be a much better hitter than Kreidler and have a mid-career offensive breakout like the Twins helped Willi Castro discover. I think Arcia is completely washed. If you can’t hit in Denver in August, you can’t do it in Minneapolis in April. Thanks for reminding me of Twins legend/your brother Oswaldo Arcia, though. 

Who do you see making the Twins out of Spring Training? Any surprises you think will come out of nowhere like Castro in 2023 or Jhoan Duran in 2022? 

Drew Smith’s time with the Mets has officially come to an end. 

The right-hander was among the clubs longest-tenured members, but now he’s landed a minor league deal to remain in the NL East with the Washington Nationals. 

SNY’s Michelle Margaux was first on the report. 

According to Margaux, Smith could earn $1.75M if he makes the big-league team. 

Smith, of course, missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. 

It’s unknown exactly where he stands in his recovery at this point, but you’d have to figure he’s at least close to or at 100 percent heading into spring training.

If so, the 32-year-old could quickly earn a high-leverage role in Washington’s bullpen. 

Smith pitched to a 3.48 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 202 strikeouts in parts of six big-league seasons with the Mets. 

He made his MLB debut in the Big Apple in 2018 after being acquired from Tampa Bay in the Lucas Duda trade (July 2017). 

AdAdam Macko is a 25-year-old, left-handed pitcher. The Jays added him to the 40-man roster in November 2023, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft. He was born in Bratislava, Slovakia (he grew up in Ireland). A quick Baseball Reference search shows that the Jays have never had a player born in Slovakia. The most famous MLB players from Slovakia? Elmer Valo played 20 seasons, mostly for the Phillies, in the 1940s, 50s, and 60s, who played the outfield and had a 28.7 career bWAR, and pitcher Jack, who played 23 seasons, with 8 teams, between 1909 and 1933, missing a couple of seasons due to World War One, who had a 59.7 bWAR with 247 wins.

Adam’s family came to Alberta to go to the Vauxhall Baseball Academy. Apparently, Vauxhall is the potato capital of Canada and is a 2.5-hour drive from Calgary, but I’m almost sure I’ve never been there.

Adam came to us in the Teoscar Hernandez trade (with Erik Swanson). He was number 8 on our top prospect list last year (he’ll fall off the list this year, as he’s 25). Tom M wrote:

He pitches with a smooth left handed delivery that he repeats well in spite of a longish arm action. His fastball is a four seamer between 91 and 95mph that has average carry and plus arm side run. His primary breaking ball (and in some outings most thrown pitch) is a slider that averages 80mph but on which he can vary the speed and shape from a cutter-ish 82 to a curve-ish 78. He also has a big curve in the low 70s with easy plus depth and an 81mph change-up with major arm side fade and some depth. The velocity’s fringy but everything moves and he has feel for locating the fastball and slider especially that help them play up a little. The change might have the best movement profile but his feel to land it varies, and the curve is so big hitters tend to lay off it, so it might be more of a strike stealing weapon than a swing and miss pitch. His command is average when he’s on, but it can come and go a bit.

Right now, Macko checks all the boxes to fit as a back end starter. He’s put up decent numbers through AA, and his repertoire is good enough and deep enough to hold up in that role even if he lacks the true put-away pitch necessary to be a top three starter in a good rotation. The only thing left to do is prove that he can handle a full season’s starting workload by getting over 100 innings in a season. He’ll get his chance starting in Buffalo.

Keith Law has him 20th on his top 20 Jays prospect list this year:

Macko missed the start of the 2025 season after knee surgery, returning to Triple A in early June to be sort of mediocre as a starter, then moved to the bullpen and saw mostly better results. He works with four pitches, with the slider and curveball probably 55s and his fastball 92-94 as a starter. His command and control have always lagged behind his stuff. He gained almost a full mile per hour on the fastball when he moved to relief and was in the zone much more often, and hitters chased more of his pitches out of the zone, including the fastball. He should make his MLB debut this year, which would make him the first Slovakian-born big leaguer since 1961 and the first to grow up there in MLB history.

He’s in his last option year, which adds a little pressure to the season.

Unfortunately, he had a meniscus tear in spring training last year and later had a forearm strain, costing him a couple of months of the season. He ended up pitching in 18 games for the Bisons, including 10 starts, with a 5.20 ERA over 64 innings, 36 walks, and 65 strikeouts.

He throws a four-seam fastball averaging 94 mph, a slider, a slow curve, and a changeup.

Macko is in a tough spot; there are a number of pitchers battling for the ‘first to be called up if a starter goes down’ spot. Ricky Tiedemann, Lazaro Estrada, Jake Bloss, and some non-roster spring invitees will get a good look this spring. But then the team might be looking at Adam as a reliever now. A good spring would help him out.

If you want some video:

Steamer thinks he’ll play in 14 games, 2 starts, 21 innings with a 4.39 ERA.

After a busy Dodgers offseason, we have a pretty idea of what their roster will eventually look like. But the active roster over the 186 days of a major league regular season is an ever-changing organism.

The Dodgers last year used 62 players, for instance, including 40 pitchers, both the most in franchise history. If we increase the threshold of playing time to five games, the 2025 team used 48 different players. In other words, expect several players to contribute in some fashion in 2026.

With a full nine-player lineup and top six starting pitchers all signed through for at least two more seasons, the Dodgers have a relatively-set roster in the abstract. But there are still decisions to be made this spring, some of which are due to injuries and some uncertainty.

Blake Snell was dealing with some fatigue this offseason after shoulder trouble last season, and while he might be ready for opening day there’s at least a chance of a rotation opening at the beginning of the season. There’s also the returns of River Ryan and Gavin Stone after both missed last season after surgeries.

Welcome back, Gavin. 🥹 pic.twitter.com/RJZ0MA25DY

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) February 14, 2026

Among the position players, Tommy Edman is coming off right ankle surgery and making his way back with a goal of being ready for the whole season if not necessarily available in late March.

Kiké Hernández is back in the fold, but won’t be ready at the beginning of the offseason as he recovers from left elbow surgery. That opens up a spot on the bench even if Edman is fully ready, which could mean a chance for one or both of Hyeseong Kim and Alex Call.

In the bullpen, Brock Stewart had shoulder surgery in October and won’t be ready for opening day. Neither will Brusdar Graterol, who missed all of last season after his own shoulder surgery and will be slow-played this spring.

Today’s question is What position battles are you looking forward to seeing this spring training?

Let’s get something out of the way right off the bat. The Yanks’ initial free agent contract for DJ LeMahieu will go down as one of the smartest moves they have ever made. We’ve sung its praises before! Pilfering the second baseman from the Rockies on a two-year, $24 million contract in October 2018, New York could not have imagined the bang they’d receive for their buck. It just wasn’t as notable at the time of its signing as the one we’re discussing today.

Anyway, back to the bargain for a moment. Over the next two seasons (the latter shortened by COVID-19), DJLM hit a combined .336/.386/.536, good for a 146 OPS+. He led the Junior Circuit in batting average, on-base percentage, and on-base plus slugging percentage in 2020, and compiled 7.1 bWAR per 162 games. If you subscribe to the theory that 1 WAR is worth about $10 million, 2019-20 DJ provided $62 million in surplus value, a number that would have certainly been even higher had the 2020 season not been capped at 60 games.

Oh, and DJ provided one of the biggest playoff moments in recent Yankee history in Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS, smashing a clutch, game-tying, two-run home run in Houston with two outs to go against Roberto Osuna. He saved the season … for a whole 15 minutes or so. It was all for naught, of course, “thanks” to Aroldis Chapman.

But still. What an absolute steal that first contract was. When the Yankees 2020 season ended, ignominiously, at the hands of the Rays (oh hey, thanks again Chappy), so did DJ’s first contract with the Yanks. What would the Yankees do?

DJ LeMahieu
Signing Date: January 27, 2021
Contract: 6 years, $90 million

In the least surprising turn of events imaginable, the Yankees tendered LeMahieu the qualifying offer and he rejected it. Coming off that COVID-shortened campaign when he hit .364 to pace the Junior Circuit and finished third for the AL MVP (which he may have deserved with a league-leading 3.0 rWAR), it would have been stunning had DJ accepted the QO. It would have been equally unimaginable for the Yankees to let DJLM walk, as he was versatile with the ability to man second, third, and first, and he was arguably as central to the entire offensive operation as Aaron Judge.

So, off to free agency he went. And, like entirely too many free agent sagas in MLB, this one dragged on much too long. Thanksgiving, the Winter Meetings, Christmas, and the turn of the calendar all came and went with LeMahieu unsigned.

By mid-December, the Yankees and their star were roughly $25 million apart in negotiations, according to reports. Everyone and their dog knew DJ was their number one priority, but with the gap, news leaked that LeMahieu was ready to engage with other clubs. Meanwhile, our own Peter Brody wrote a cogent analysis of why the Yankees could (should?) pass on LeMahieu, given their self-imposed financial constraints.

Obviously, his flirtations came to nothing. In late January, the hot stove really heated up where DJ was concerned. Ominously, reports emerged that the Yankees’ priorities were perhaps askew. Jim Bowden reported (accurately) in the days prior to LeMahieu’s signing that the front office was concerned with the luxury tax implications of signing DJ.

“According to a source the #Yankees deal with LeMahieu will be for more than 4 years……now question is it 5 or 6 years… According to a source the #Yankees preferred more years and less AAV in LeMahieu deal for luxury tax issues. Deal will be for more than 4 years.”

LeMahieu was about to enter his age-32 season. A six-year pact would lock the Yankees in financially through his age-37 campaign. And lest readers wonder if this is all hindsight being 2020, it has long been a truism that second basemen have rough aging curves. Nate Silver touched on this as far back as 2005 in Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs revisited the topic in the context of the Yankees’ efforts in early 2013 to extend Robinson Canó before that superstar Yankees second baseman hit free agency. Anecdotally, it feels like one of those adages I’ve known my entire adult life.

Alas, Bowden was right. Instead of a four-year deal with a higher AAV, the Yanks opted for frugality and extended the total cost over six years. A fully functional Death Star, indeed.

The deal was agreed upon in mid-January but not until January 27th did it become official. New York had to keep DJ and they did, while minimizing the annual hit to their payroll. And as Lindsey Adler pointed out in the pages of The Athletic, DJ got a long-term deal likely to take him through to the end of his career. For his part, DJ was happy to be back in pinstripes.

The thought exercise here is fascinating. This article, and Yankee fandom’s historical memory of DJLM, likely looks very different if the Yanks had inked him to a shorter-term, higher AAV deal. Imagine a four-year pact. When injury and underperformance caused LeMahieu to crater in 2024, New York could have parted ways with him at any point, with no money remaining on the books past that season.

Instead, DJ was back last season because the Yankees were too reluctant to admit that they were getting nothing for their $30 million across the final two years of the deal. And while he was considerably better than in ’24, that’s not saying much. New York parted ways with him last July, but because of the decision to pursue a longer-term deal that lowered LeMahieu’s AAV, they’re still on the hook paying him in 2026.*

*He hasn’t retired, but no team has signed him in seven months and it feels distinctly possible that his long-term deal will have indeed taken him to the end of his career. So at least he has that, I suppose.

It boggles the mind that the Yankees, who boast resources and revenues few other teams can match, insist on pinching pennies at the weirdest possible times. The fatal miscalculation they made while garnering any luxury tax savings enabled by this deal was that there was an opportunity cost in the desire to keep running LeMahieu out there when he had long since been a productive ballplayer, just to try to get something. Superior present options could have been pursued, or at the very least, they could have stopped playing Jazz Chisholm Jr. out of position at third just to accommodate the hobbled LeMahieu, no longer physically able to man the hot corner.

Back on the field, it wasn’t all doom and gloom at the start of the new contract. LeMahieu did come back to Earth in 2021, but even a nearly 100-point regression in his batting average left him a league-average hitter who played a solid second base and provided veteran leadership. Part of it could even be blamed on a sports hernia that he was playing through down the stretch, which got to be so painful that LeMahieu was unable to appear in the 2021 AL Wild Card Game loss to the Red Sox.

LeMahieu’s 2022 season was even better. He had a 110 OPS+ and by bWAR, it was the third-best season of his career (ignoring the giant COVID-shaped elephant in the room that was 2020). He appropriately won the first-ever AL Gold Glove for a utilityman as well.

But it all went to hell in the middle of August, when LeMahieu broke a sesamoid bone in his right big toe — a mouthful of an injury that only got worse when he also suffered ligament damage in his second toe. Unable to generate any drive and with a brief IL stint not helping matters, he again missed the postseason. As it turned out, he would never appear in a playoff game on this contract.

In 2023, LeMahieu was fine, even showing signs of resurgence in the second half with an .809 OPS. But there were signs that it was a bit luck-driven, and in 2024, that train came completely off the tracks. I know we’re harping on it, but Aaron Boone and the Yankees stubbornly kept running him out there, and even ran it back in 2025 before finally admitting defeat and releasing him last summer.

The second DJ LeMahieu deal never even came close to the lofty returns of its predecessor. But, to a certain extent, that is the Yankees’ own fault. Letting DJ walk after his sensational 2019-20 was likely never an option and would have drawn the ire of the vast majority of their fans.

But choosing to extend the tenure of his contract over six years rather than a shorter term was an unmitigated disaster that has soured fans’ opinions of the front office and their memories of LeMahieu, who deserved a better fate given his initial smashing success.

References

Blum, Ronald. “After 4 straight injury-marred seasons, DJ LeMahieu hopes to regain former form as batting champion.” Associates Press. February 18, 2025.

Brody, Peter. “The case against re-signing DJ LeMahieu.” Pinstripe Alley. December 18, 2020.

Cameron, Dave. “Robinson Cano and Second Base Aging Curves.” FanGraphs. March 1, 2013.

DJ LeMahieu. Baseball-Reference.

DJ LeMahieu. FanGraphs.

Harding, Thomas. “Fan favorite LeMahieu signs with Yankees.” MLB. January 11, 2019.

Hoch, Bryan. “LeMahieu placed on injured list.” MLB. October 3, 2021.

Hoch, Bryan. “Yanks finalize LeMahieu’s 6-year deal.” MLB. January 27, 2021.

Kirschner, Chris. “Yankees release DJ LeMahieu, still owe him $15 million in 2026.” The Athletic. July 9, 2025.

Rosenstein, Mike. “MLB rumors: Yankees-DJ LeMahieu contract terms take shape | Deal won’t crack $100 million.” NJ.com. January 15, 2021.

Silver, Nate. “Lies, Damned Lies: A New Look at Aging.” Baseball Prospectus. September 22, 2005.

“Yankees, DJ LeMahieu in agreement on 6-year deal: Source.” The Athletic. January 15, 2021.

“Yankees, DJ LeMahieu more than $25 million apart in negotiations: Sources.” The Athletic. December 14, 2020.

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See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.

At this time of year, I tend to start thinking through what my expectations are for the coming season. Having a base model in my head helps me avoid overreacting to early-season noise. Part of that process includes looking at the AL Central, the main competition the Royals need to beat to reach the playoffs. It is not typically considered a very strong division, as the coastal, big-money teams are in the West or East in both leagues, with the possible exception of the two Chicago teams, who play in big media markets but have not traditionally acted like it.

I’m going to start with the weakest team and work through the other non-Royals clubs before getting to how Kansas City matches up.

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Chicago White Sox

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 0.4% / 1.1%
BP: 0.5% / 1.1%

Both systems agree that the White Sox are going to need some very fortunate bounces to compete for even the last wild-card slot. They have some individually talented players, but there are simply too many holes in the roster to take them seriously as a contender. They don’t really have a unit that qualifies as a strength.

Their rotation features Shane Smith, who had a genuinely nice 2025 season but profiles more as a solid third starter than an Opening Day, top-of-the-rotation arm. After him, there are several back-end types who are really fifth or sixth starters unless Anthony Kay learned something in NPB that unlocked another level, or Erick Fedde rediscovers the weird magic that made him good for that stretch in 2024. Maybe Noah Schultz or Hagen Smith can come up from the prospect ranks and improve things.

The bullpen is very similar. I think Grant Taylor is really good, and there are a few other decent arms, but not enough, and none who are true back-end anchors. Seranthony Domínguez as your seventh-inning guy is probably fine; as your closer, it leaves a lot to be desired. His inconsistency over the years is concerning for that role. The pitching staff is almost certainly going to be in the bottom half of the league.

The offense is not much better. They again have a couple of interesting bats. Colson Montgomery had a very nice debut at age 23. Projection systems don’t believe he can come close to repeating it, but there’s some hope. Kyle Teel is similarly interesting as a catcher who should provide value at the plate. The outfield, outside of Luis Robert Jr., is rough. When Andrew Benintendi (still only 31!?) is hitting in the middle of your lineup, things are probably not going well. This unit is going to need a lot of luck to score enough runs to be competitive.

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Cleveland Guardians

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 5.9% / 13.3%
BP: 5.4% / 9.4%

I still don’t really get how the Guardians did what they did last season, and the projection systems seem to agree. This is a flawed team — especially offensively — that somehow rides its pitching well enough to reach the playoffs on a recurring basis.

They don’t have anyone you’d call a true ace, but Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are both good. Maybe Parker Messick can give them a reliable third option at the top of the rotation, but this is not a scary group. There’s enough depth and competence to be middle-of-the-pack or slightly better, though.

The bullpen has been their strength the last few years and might continue to be. Cade Smith is a beast, though Hunter Gaddis backed up quite a bit last year after his dominant 2024. And of course, there’s no more Clase. I could see a scenario where this ends up below league average, but I’ll give the organization the benefit of the doubt, given its track record of building bullpens. They have eight or so other arms from which they’ll likely cobble together a third and fourth option, plus depth.

The lineup, on the other hand, is just bad. They’ve struggled to score runs for years. José Ramírez and Steven Kwan give them stability, and I think Kyle Manzardo provides a third consistently above-average bat. After that, it’s a lot of wishing. Can they find a way to score enough runs to stay competitive? They may need Travis Bazzana, Cooper Ingle, or maybe Ralphy Velazquez to come up and add a quality bat, but none of them are sure things. (Still love the name Ralphy.)

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Minnesota Twins

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 17.1% / 32.6%
BP: 17.3% / 26.8%

Projection systems consistently seem to love the Twins. And the Twins love disappointing them — at least that’s how it has felt in recent years.

After the fire sale at last year’s deadline, many would assume they have little to no shot, but these probabilities disagree. I think it’s mostly a function of a very good rotation. Pablo López and Joe Ryan make a nice one-two punch. Add quality depth behind them, and you have one of the better starting fives in baseball.

For me, the problems arise in the bullpen. There’s no clear top-end arm anymore. Maybe Taylor Rogers or Justin Topa recaptures some of their previous dominance, but I wouldn’t bet on anyone in this bullpen as a true slam-the-door option. The depth was also thinned out at the deadline. It looks like an inconsistent group.

There are talented hitters. Byron Buxton is very, very good — and we also know he tends to disappear from the lineup. You can realistically hope for 100–110 games of his production. Luke Keaschall had a good 2025 debut and looks like a nice long-term piece, but he’s more of a table-setter than a top-tier bat, especially since that .340 BABIP is unlikely to repeat. Matt Wallner and Ryan Jeffers are solid, and maybe Royce Lewis finally pulls it all together (I sincerely doubt it).

They’ll score some runs, but I doubt they’ll finish in the top half of the league offensively. Left field, shortstop, first base, and DH are all considerable issues that bringing in Josh Bell does not fix. His projections are odd — I’m not sure why systems expect his best season since 2022 at age 33, but they do. One true middle-of-the-order bat is not enough, and there’s always the threat of ownership shedding more payroll.

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Detroit Tigers

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 54.3% / 69.8%
BP: 36.1% / 49.7%

Now we get to the favorites. The Tigers have a lot going for them and have added a couple of large pieces to get even stronger.

Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez might be the best one-two punch in baseball, and a back end of Jack Flaherty, Verlander, and Casey Mize is solid. I have concerns about Verlander, but he really just needs to be serviceable. The Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe injuries reduce their depth, which does hurt, but they’re still positioned to have one of the best rotations in the league.

The bullpen is significantly less intimidating. Will Vest was dominant for stretches last year, but counting on that for a full season feels risky. Any team planning on Kenley Jansen as its closer at this stage has questions. Nothing against Jansen, but last year feels a bit like fool’s gold statistically. Can they get reliable back-end production from Tyler Holton, Kyle Finnegan, and others? It feels like they’ll have a lot of serviceable arms without true top-end dominance. That creates risk — and it contributed to their inability to hold the division late.

The other issue was consistent run scoring. That’s a theme in the Central: solid starting pitching, inconsistent bats. The Tigers probably have the most stable lineup top to bottom. Riley Greene has become a stalwart, and Spencer Torkelson finally put it together to add thump. I believe in those two, and adding Gleyber Torres helps.

It’s the Colt Keith, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Pérez, and Zack McKinstry group I’m less sold on. Most outperformed their underlying metrics last year. Javier Báez had a strange renaissance before reverting to below-average production. This is a good offense if those supporting pieces hold. If not, it becomes pedestrian. If Kevin McGonigle or Max Clark forces the issue, that would help considerably.

Given the rotation strength, they have to be considered favorites, regardless of BP slightly preferring the Royals.

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Kansas City

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 22.3% / 39.9%
BP: 40.7% / 55.8%

After looking at everyone else, I’m more optimistic about the Royals than I was initially.

Their starting pitching strength and depth match up well within the division. Injuries are the biggest risk, as we saw last year. Cole Ragans likely needs to return to Cy Young-level form for this team to reach its ceiling, but the rotation should be second or third in the division at worst.

I also like the bullpen more now. The back end of Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, and Matt Strahm is better than any other in the division. I don’t even think that’s particularly arguable, though I do have mild concerns about both Erceg and Estévez. The depth — John Schreiber, Nick Mears, possibly displaced starters, and Luinder Avila focusing solely on relief — gives them the strongest bullpen depth in the Central. This may be the best bullpen KC has had in some time. Hopefully that’s not just spring hopium.

Bobby Witt Jr. is clearly the best player in the division, and Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and Maikel Garcia give the Royals the strongest top-of-the-lineup core in the Central. The questions come at leadoff and in the back half. There aren’t as many internal solutions as Detroit has, and there aren’t elite prospects waiting in the wings. Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone may determine whether this lineup is good enough. Isaac Collins, Jonathan India, and Lane Thomas matter too — but mostly they just need to be useful and outproduce last year’s black holes.

I’m probably closer to the Fangraphs division odds – around 25% – because I think Detroit is slightly better overall. But I also believe this front office will add if needed, which could push that toward 30–35%. On overall playoff odds, I’m closer to BP.

The AL as a whole feels open. I see only five clearly better teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners. That puts the Royals somewhere near 50% to make the playoffs — and I’m ready for the season to begin.

What do you think?

Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic dropped a surprising note that the Rays lone lefty reliever Garrett Cleavinger is evidently drawing strong trade interest this week, in sourcing likely derived from a couple teams pushing for the acquisition.

In a vacuum, this is totally something the old Rays would do, as Cleavinger is a short-arm reliever making $2.4 million with yet another pay increase coming next season in his final year of arbitration. Short of paying for a lights out closer, the Rays usually build their bullpen in a cave with some scraps, and Cleavinger has eight saves since his 2020 major league debut.

The modern Rays, at lease of the last couple seasons, wait and see how the season will go before removing any key pieces. The logic would go: If there’s a 20% chance this team is competitive for the playoffs, you see if you’re in that 1/5 chance before moving on from your best relievers.

Rosenthal doesn’t throw his weight around lightly, and given that this rumor is here at all, it would seem to indicate the Rays also think they have enough left handed support to part with a fireman southpaw and that the team didn’t give a hard no upon inquiry.

If the Rays acquiesce, it could indicate that 40-man left-handed starters Ian Seymour and Joe Rock might start getting more swing-man assignments or time in the bullpen to maximize their value on the roster. In camp the Rays will also have journeyman LHP Cam Booser, who I’m willing to bet already had a strong shot to make the Rays roster this Spring.

Cleavinger sported a 2.35 ERA last season over 61.1 IP, his second consecutive season of sixty innings thrown, with a 33.7% strikeout rate (96th percentile in MLB) with a 36.0% whiff rate (97th percentile) and 7.4% walk rate (63rd percentile).

Mets owner Steve Cohen addressed a number of topics Monday morning in Port St. Lucie…

---

Shaking up the core

Change was needed with this core simply because…

“We haven’t won, and I really want to win,” Cohen emphasized. “Each year that goes by, I get more annoyed. It’s hard to know what to make of those chances, and sometimes they happen in a way that you don’t fully anticipate or expect.

“But the other side of it is, we have a really sharp baseball management group, and these guys were prepared and had alternatives, and like I said -- saying goodbye is always tough, but saying hello is kind of fun.”

Say hello to Bo…

One of those new faces the Mets brought in was Bo Bichette. 

They, of course, landed Bichette shortly after losing out on Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers. 

Cohen explained how he went to bed annoyed about missing the star outfielder, but the front office moved quickly to land a strong alternative shortly thereafter.

“The way I describe it is, when the news came down with Kyle, literally the body was still warm and we were getting calls from agents, literally within five minutes later -- I was like ‘the body is still warm here,’” he said. 

“I went to bed annoyed, but the agent for Bo called us right after and discussions started -- you never know how they’re going to go, but they moved real quickly.” 

In Bichette, the Mets pick up one of the league's premier hitters with RISP.

“It’s always better to have players that have performed in the clutch,” Cohen explained. “He’s not a home run guy, but he led the league in doubles last year, and doubles score runs too -- having those players who have preformed under pressure is usually a pretty good sign.”

Them pesky Dodgers…

Speaking of the Dodgers, Cohen was asked if he feels the Mets closed the gap between them and the two-time defending champs.

“They’re formidable, they have the ability to spend -- so do I, by the way,” he joked. “They’ve built a great team, but I think we’ve built a great team too. I think we’re going to be really competitive this year, and the goal is to meet them somewhere along the way.”

Impressions of the 2026 team… so far

Cohen only arrived in PSL on Monday, but he feels a different vibe around this club.

“I feel like there’s a different energy here than last year,” he said. “I don’t know what it is, it just feels really optimistic -- a lot of new faces, so I’m really excited by this team, I’m excited by the energy of this team, and we’ll see what happens.”

His goal for this team, though…

“Table stakes is making the playoffs, gotta make the playoffs,” Cohen explained. “I missed the playoffs last year, missing the playoffs two years in a row, that’s not good -- and then obviously you want to go deep. 

“You can’t lose lose a short series, you can’t control what goes on, anything can happen in those short series -- but I think the idea is keep putting yourself in that position year in and year out, which we haven’t done.

“It’s been off and on, so we have to do better, and those are the goals I’m seeking.”

Confidence in Mendy…

Even after a down 2025 season, Cohen remains confident Carlos Mendoza is the manager they need to achieve his goals.

“Carlos is a great manager, he’s a great guy and a great motivator,” he said. “I believe a manager’s main job is the culture, obviously there are in-game decisions, but it’s really about creating the right culture, and I think Carlos does it really well.”

Mendoza is heading into the final year of his contract with the club. 

Thoughts on Carson Benge...

Benge is one of the young pieces who could help Mendoza and the Mets return to the postseason.

The top prospect is being given every chance to make the Opening Day roster out of camp this spring...

"Obviously there's a great deal of expectation with Carson," Cohen said. "You've got to give him a bit of a break, right? He hasn't played in Triple-A yet, so it's hard to know how that's going to go, but he certainly has preformed in a way that would make you excited about the possibilities." 

Benge, and the organization's other young pieces, will certainly benefit from being around the club's veterans. 

Thoughts on a potential salary cap...

Cohen insisted he is solely focused on the 2026 season, and isn't worried about what may come in 2027. 

As far as where he stands on a potential salary floor/cap...

"I'm listening to all of the arguments, but I've always been a league-first owner," he said. "I haven't made up my mind yet, but we'll see where it goes -- sometimes I put the league's interest above my own interest."

Can Roman Anthony carry the Red Sox offense in 2026? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Roman Anthony will have plenty on his shoulders this upcoming Boston Red Sox season, and the budding superstar arrived in Fort Myers prepared to carry the load.

Anthony showed up to spring training with noticeably more muscle on his 6-foot-3 frame. After flashing MVP potential as a rookie last season, he’ll be counted on to supply much of the power for a Red Sox lineup that isn’t expected to hit many balls over the fence in 2026.

ZiPS projects the Red Sox will be the only MLB club without a player hitting 20-plus home runs next season. Anthony, Trevor Story, and Wilyer Abreu are tied for the team lead with a projected 18 homers, and Anthony also owns the highest projected OPS (.812) among Boston hitters.

The Red Sox front office’s inability to land another big bat this offseason has put the burden on Anthony to exceed even those lofty expectations. Fortunately, the laid-back 21-year-old appears unbothered by the spotlight.

“That’s fine. Like I said earlier, we have so many great players, so I’m not really worried about that at all,” Anthony told reporters at Fenway South on Monday.

“I’m not really worried about anything like that, never really was. Just going to continue to learn from my teammates around me and find ways to make everyone better.”

Vote for Roman Anthony in our “Best Boston athletes under 25” contest

That mindset is part of what makes Anthony such a compelling centerpiece for Boston’s future. With elite bat speed, advanced plate discipline, and power to all fields, his talent has never been in question. His even-keeled approach may prove to be just as valuable as the production itself. If the Red Sox are going to outperform their modest power projections, it will likely start with their former No. 1 prospect taking another leap mentally and physically.

Anthony earned his long-awaited call-up to the big leagues in June. After raking at every minor-league level, he wasted little time making his presence felt in Boston, slashing .292/.396/.463 with eight homers and 32 RBI in 71 games before an oblique strain ended his season prematurely in early September. He finished third in the American League Rookie of the Year race.

Roman Anthony DESTROYS a home run off of Paul Skenes 😮 pic.twitter.com/WkyKHlngCJ

— MLB (@MLB) August 30, 2025

If he stays healthy in 2026, it isn’t a stretch to say Anthony could be in the AL Most Valuable Player conversation. An MVP-level season from Anthony may be necessary for the Red Sox to compete in the tough AL East and make a deep postseason run.

Although much of the commentary surrounding this year’s Red Sox squad touts the improved pitching staff while questioning the lineup, Anthony is a believer in the group.

“I think we’ve got a great squad offensively,” he said. “I haven’t really looked into it much as to what people have to say about us, but I think we know what the end goal is, and we know how we’re gonna try and piece it together to make everything work.

“I think we have a very complete lineup. It just feels very tight-knit in there. So I think as far as the offensive side goes, I think we’re gonna be just fine.”

Even if Anthony is confident the Red Sox offense will surprise people, there’s no question the club is asking a lot from him heading into his first full season. He ranks near the top of the list of players they can’t afford to lose to injury, which makes his addition to Team USA for the 2026 World Baseball Classic a polarizing topic among Sox fans. While it’ll be fun to watch the future face of the franchise perform on an international stage, it will also come with understandable anxiety.

Ultimately, the Red Sox are placing a significant bet on growth. When it comes to the lineup, they’re betting that internal development, more than offseason spending, will power their next postseason push. At the center of that wager stands Roman Anthony.

He doesn’t need to be perfect, nor does he have to do it alone. But if he continues on his current trajectory, it’ll go a long way toward quieting the critiques of the lackluster offense, and it could make all the difference between another letdown season and October baseball in Boston.

No pressure, kid.

Vote for Roman Anthony and other Sox players in our “Best Boston athletes under 25” contest

Today, for our daily question, we are going to ask you to look back on your history with the Cleveland baseball team.

I will not be surprised if you have multiple memories you want to share, and that’s fine, but tell us which one stands out above the others, if you can.

Whether it’s:

-Games you saw in person
-Games you saw from your couch
-Encounters with players or coaches
-Life experiences that intertwined with the team and its accomplishments
-Memories from trips to the stadium and city

We want to hear about it all in the comments below. Share some Indians/Guardians memories with us!

Zack Meisel published a great article today about Chase DeLauter’s debut and his approach to this coming season. He, again, emphasizes that the organization was planning for DeLauter to break camp with the major league team in 2025 before his injury. So… one would have to assume the plan is for him to break camp this season. Right? Right?!

There was a rumor that Ty France was on the Guardians’ radar. He signed a minor-league deal with the Padres today. Rhys Hoskins is still out there. The Guardians will not sign him.

In case you missed it, Hoynes had a quote from Stephen Vogt saying that David Fry isn’t going to play right field or third base yet. This complicates the roster situation and will be interesting to follow.

Will Brennan signed a split contract with the San Francisco Giants. We wish Brennan all the best.

The Guardians have their first full-squad workout tomorrow. Jose Ramirez was the only player not yet in camp, but should be there as of today.

After signing Cionel Perez a couple days ago, the Nats picked up another veteran reliever on an incentive-laden minor league deal. This time Paul Toboni and the Nats picked up Drew Smith, who was a mainstay in the Mets bullpen for a few years. From 2021 to 2024, Smith featured prominently in the Mets bullpen, but missed last season recovering from Tommy John.

Former Met reliever Drew Smith stays in the NL East agreeing to a minor league deal with the Nats. $1.75M if he makes the team, with $1.25M in performance bonuses, according to sources

— Michelle Margaux (@mmargaux8) February 16, 2026

However, he should be ready to go right away. The surgery was back in July of 2024, so plenty of time has passed. This is Smith’s second Tommy John, so it is not a given that he looks like his old self. If he does bounce back, the $1.75 million price tag if he makes the team could be a steal.

Back when he was on the Mets, Smith was known for his swing and miss stuff. His fastball sat around 95 MPH and he had a strong feel for spin. Smith throws a cutter, a slider, a curveball and an occasional changeup to go with his lively heater. He can be susceptible to hard contact, but he makes up for it by getting swing and miss.

Nats sign reliever Drew Smith pic.twitter.com/qn38X4MUze

— Kev (@klwoodjr) February 16, 2026

Earlier this offseason, I actually brought up Smith as a potential under the radar target. His career 3.48 ERA and his ability to generate whiffs stuck out to me. It seems like Toboni was also impressed by those skills. 

Spring Training will be huge for Smith though. He will need to prove that his stuff is still good after a second major surgery. There are examples of pitchers who have succeeded after a second Tommy John, but there are also plenty of guys who struggle to bounce back from that second surgery. Hopefully Smith can be part of the former group.

Importantly, he will be ready to go immediately. There was some optimism that he could return at the end of the Mets season, but he just could not quite make it. Given how far removed he is from the surgery, this offseason was probably relatively normal for Smith. 

It's still far too early to know with any certainty, but Mets reliever Drew Smith (recovery from Tommy John surgery) has some optimism that he'll be able to return in late September or October. He's on track to begin throwing bullpen sessions next month — a good sign.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) May 26, 2025

Due to his injury status, Smith is less likely to break camp with the team than Cionel Perez. However, he might have more upside to his ability to generate whiffs. This is another worthwhile dart throw from Toboni. If Smith does not look like the same pitcher, he can just be a depth arm in Rochester. However, if the stuff does return, he could be an important veteran in the Nats bullpen.

At 32 years old, Smith should have gas in the tank if he is fully recovered from the injury. He also provides some experience and veteran leadership to a Nats bullpen that does not have much of that.

If Smith can pitch to a 3.48 ERA, which is his career mark, this would be a great pickup. There is also no risk because this is a minor league deal. I like these small bullpen moves Toboni has made in the last few days.

The newest addition to the Team USA World Baseball Classic roster is also its youngest.

Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony was officially named to the roster on Tuesday, Feb. 16. He replaces the Diamondbacks' Corbin Carroll, Team USA announced after it had been reported last week. Anthony, who debuted with 71 games in 2025 and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, batted .292 in Boston with eight home runs and an OPS+ of 140.

REQUIRED READING: Padres elated to land 'baller' Nick Castellanos after his Phillies divorce

While Anthony may be a bit of a downgrade in terms of outfield coverage from Carroll, he will bring a stronger arm and he can make up for the difference in bat pop. Anthony joins teammate Garrett Whitlock, one of the best aces in baseball, on the WBC roster.

Anthony signed an eight-year contract worth $130 million with the Red Sox last August, and the deal has escalators up to $230 million. Though he missed out on $1 million for not finishing top two in Rookie of the Year voting, he can make $2 million for winning MVP, $1 million for finishing second or third in MVP voting, with descending numbers down to top-10 in voting.

The USA outfield will now have Anthony, Byron Buxton, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and captain Aaron Judge.

How old is Roman Anthony?

Born May 13, 2004, Anthony is 21 years old and will be 22 in May. He is the youngest player on the Team USA roster.

Anthony became the youngest Red Sox player to make his debut since Rafael Devers at 21 years and 27 days on June 9 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Roman Anthony stats

Anthony slashed .292/.396/.463 last season with eight home runs.

In terms of other metrics, the only spots where Anthony fell under league average at the plate were in whiff percentage and strikeout percentage.

Team USA World Baseball Classic roster

The World Baseball Classic roster is again filled out now, with Anthony joining Buxton, Crow-Armstrong, and Judge in the outfield.

Pitchers

• Paul Skenes (Pirates)
• Tarik Skubal (Tigers)
• Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox)
• Joe Ryan (Twins)
• Michael Wacha (Royals)
• Matthew Boyd (Cubs)
• Garrett Cleavinger (Rays)
• Clay Holmes (Mets)
• Logan Webb (Giants)
• Nolan McLean (Mets)
• David Bednar (Yankees)
• Griffin Jax (Twins)
• Brad Keller (Phillies)
• Mason Miller (Padres)
• Gabe Speier (Mariners)
• Clayton Kershaw (Retired)

Catchers

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners)
• Will Smith (Dodgers)

Infield

• Bryce Harper, 1B/DH (Phillies)
• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B/DH (Yankees)
• Brice Turang, 2B (Brewers)
• Gunnar Henderson, SS (Orioles)
• Bobby Witt Jr., SS (Royals)
• Alex Bregman, 3B (Cubs)
• Ernie Clement, Utility (Blue Jays)

Outfield

• Aaron Judge (Yankees)
• Byron Buxton (Twins)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs)
• Roman Anthony (Red Sox)

Designated Hitter

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Roman Anthony replaces Corbin Carroll on Team USA's WBC roster

Listen, I really liked the idea that the Phillies recognized that developing their own starters and relievers is the proper way to build and develop. Spending at the top of free agency each year is fine, but there has to be some counterbalance to what is being done. So spending higher draft picks on pitchers that fit best in the bullpen? I’m fine with that.

Cody Bowker – 137
Zach McCambley – 25
Cason DeMartini – 16
Alex McFarlane – 13
Yoniel Curet – 12
Griffin Burkholder – 12
Keaton Anthony – 9
Seth Johnson – 8
Mavis Graves – 6

As stated in previous articles, the team definitely took the right step in trying to develop arms themselves rather than having to trade for them each deadline. The hope is probably that if they can hit on one, maybe two arms, that can be used in major league bullpens, that’s a solid win.

Obviously, the hope would be there were more to develop and that’s possible. Getting two arms from this past draft to the major leagues with the belief that they could be successful is the dream. But after years of neglect, it’s at least refreshing that arms like Bowker, one who might start but is more likely to be a reliever, are in the system to provide depth when/if they are needed

2025 stats

Did not debut

Fangraphs scouting report

Bowker has an extreme drop-and-drive, low-slot delivery. His right shin is practically scraping the ground as he delivers, creating extreme uphill angle on his pitches. Bowker sat in the 91-94 mph range all year even as he blew through his career innings high, and he throws fastballs for strikes (70% strike rate with plus-plus miss and chase) despite mechanical funk. Though his secondary pitch feel is not as crisp, Bowker has a bunch of them. He changes speeds on two breakers — a mid-80s cutter and low-80s slider — that play nicely off his fastball near the top of the zone, and he can turn over a changeup in the low 80s if he wants something to finish low. It’s a starter’s pitch mix in a mechanical package more commonly seen in the bullpen, which is why Bowker is projected to slot into multi-inning big league role.

With each new post, we’ll reveal who won the voting for that particular slot, then post new players for you to vote on, adding another one to the list each time until we get to our final tally of 20. Once we get to 20 top prospects, we’ll do an honorable mention post at the end. If a player gets traded to another team, we’ll just chuck him right on outta here and all the players will move up a spot. If a prospect gets acquired, we’ll ask where he should go on the list.

Probably the most important thing about this whole process – please vote. Give us a few minutes of your time, just click a button and then we can discuss other players and things in the comment section, but don’t forget – VOTE!

In this special Spring 2026 preview episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast, Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco sit down with Kansas City Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney for an in-depth, behind-the-scenes look at how the organization is building its staff for the upcoming season.

Sweeney walks us through his daily routine during spring training — from 6 a.m. physicals and data review to individualized bullpen sessions and game-day preparation. Sweeney’s candid stories about player personalities, in-game adjustments, and clubhouse culture provide rare access to the human side of pitching development. For fans who want more than surface-level analysis, this episode delivers insider insight into how the Royals are preparing to compete in 2026.

Jacob and Jeremy also dive into bullpen construction, including why Lucas Erceg is viewed as a high-ceiling, swing-and-miss weapon, how Carlos Estevez factors into late-inning strategy, and which emerging arms — including Steven Cruz, Alex Lange, Nick Mears, Luinder Avila, and others — are pushing for meaningful roles in 2026.

Whether you’re a longtime Royals supporter or a baseball enthusiast interested in pitching strategy and player development, this conversation offers a valuable perspective on what it truly takes to build a modern MLB pitching staff.

Email Jacob directly at: jm17971047@gmail.com

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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