We have checked in regularly on the woes that plague the Cincinnati Reds, owners of the worst record in the National League Central. Namely, we have checked in regularly on just how absymal their ability to score runs has been all season long, and last night’s shutout loss to the St. Louis Cardinals prompted yet another check in on that status.
To date, the 509 runs they have scored on the season rank – you guessed it – last in the entire National League. Their -89 run differential is worsted in the senior circuit only by the lowly Colorado Rockies, the Savannah Bananas of Major League Baseball.
The Reds own a collective 87 wRC+ on the season. That’s the worst mark among any team in the sport, with the Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, and perennially rebuilding Los Angeles Angels all tied in the next-worst spot at 91 each.
FanGraphs’ collective measure of offensive (Off) takes a particularly dim view of the work of the Reds so far this season. They grade Cincinnati at -72.6, which is not only dead last among the 30 MLB clubs, it’s light years worse than the Rockies (again) in second to last place. They sit at -55.3, which somehow feels like a Uranus-Pluto level gap.
If batting average is still your thing, well, don’t fret – the Reds rank last there, too. They’re hitting just .226 on the season, with the New York Yankees somehow checking in as next-worst at .229. Toronto is being nice by tying the Reds for worst on-base percentage, with the two clubs sharing dead last with a .305 OBP mark.
If you feel as if you’ve seen Cincinnati begin to strike out at a ridiculous rate, well, you aren’t wrong there, either. Their 25.4% K% also ranks as dead last, meaning no team in the sport strikes out with the proclivity that they do.
Running through a few more categories, you can even find the Reds ranking dead last in RE24 on the FanGraphs leaderboard. Their -91.33 mark there is light years behind Toronto’s second-worst mark of -69.71 in terms of ‘Run Above Average based on the 24 Base/Out States,’ and while I don’t actually have any idea of what that particular word salad means, I trust that a) them designing it and b) the Reds ranking dead last in it are two things that are established actionable events.
The Reds also rank last in Park Adjusted Runs Above Average and, perhaps most glaring, rank dead last by a large margin in overall fWAR by their position players. That latter mark of just 6.0 is one of just three that’s in the single digits by teams league-wide, and it’s worth pointing out that the Chicago Cubs lead the game with 28.4. They’ve put up 22.4 more fWAR from their position players than the Reds so far this year, while division mates in Pittsburgh have even found a way to post 16.0 fWAR so far on the season.
The Reds are in last. The Reds are last, they are the physical embodiment of it. That they don’t seem interested in making any tangible changes to the process or those that make the decisions seems to be more and more baffling by the minute.
San Diego Padres catching coordinator Oswaldo Pirela was detained at El Paso International Airport. (Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
The San Diego Padres minor league catching coordinator is in the custody of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and will remain so “pending removal proceedings,” a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security said Tuesday in a statement.
Oswaldo Pirela, a former Texas Rangers minor league player, was detained Sunday morning at El Paso (Texas) International Airport.
Pirela, 34, was flying to Phoenix, where he lives with his wife and two daughters. The Padres’ triple-A affiliate is the El Paso Chihuahuas, and Pirela was with the team during its home game Saturday night against the Salt Lake City Bees, an Angels affiliate.
The Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said Pirela came to the United States from his native Venezuela in September 2014 and that his permission to remain expired Feb. 10, 2018.
DHS said Pirela was not carrying his work permit at the time he was detained. Pirela’s brother Juan Pirela presented Phoenix multimedia news organization Arizona’s Family with Oswaldo’s work permit, which indicated it was issued in 2024 and is valid until 2029.
“It’s very hard. He’s authorized to work in the United States,” Juan Pirela said. “So, the same department, Homeland Security, issues a work permit but then somehow it’s not enough.”
The DHS statement addressed the issue: “To be clear, work authorization or a pending application do NOT confer legal status in the United States.”
“In violation of our nation’s laws, [Pirela] overstayed his welcome. When approached by law enforcement officers, he was not in possession of legal documentation granting him status in the country. He will remain in ICE custody pending removal proceedings and will receive due process.
As a roving catching instructor, Pirela is based out of the Padres’ spring training complex in Peoria, Ariz., and travels to the organization’s minor league affiliates in San Antonio, Fort Wayne, Ind., and Lake Elsinore in addition to El Paso. He spent the 2024 season as bench coach for the class-A Lake Elsinore Storm and became the organization’s catching coordinator in 2025.
“We recently became aware of the detainment of minor league catching coordinator Oswaldo Pirela in El Paso, Texas,” the Padres club said in a statement. “We are working to gather additional information and will not have any further comment at this time.”
Pirela was signed by the Rangers at age 17 out of Barquisimeto, Venezuela, and played catcher, first base and the outfield from 2009-2011 for the team’s Dominican Republic Summer League affiliate.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 29: AJ Smith-Shawver #32 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the New York Mets during their game at Citi Field on July 29, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the Atlanta Braves falling into a bit of a recent funk, the attention now turns to the newly-returning AJ Smith-Shawver. After spending nearly a month in Triple-A biding his time and cooking up something serious (to the point where he was named International League Pitcher of the Week for his efforts last week), Smith-Shawver is back in the rotatio nand set to make his second start of 2026.
The first start came back on July 29, which is when he appeared as the 27th man in a doubleheader against the Mets. While his 4.1 innings and four strikeouts may look underwhelming at first glance, anybody who watched that performance could tell that Smith-Shawver certainly has the potential to provide plenty of value and production for Atlanta as they are firmly entrenched in the dog days of Summer at the moment. The obvious hope is that Shawver can at least improve upon the performances of Tyler Mahle and Martín Pérez, who were at least decent in their two starts before this one.
With that being said, the problem hasn’t necessarily been the pitching. Sure, Martín Pérez gave up four runs in the first inning of the series opener and that’s not a trivial hole to climb out for any team in any given game but Atlanta never really looked like they had more than four runs in them in Monday night. The same could be said for Tuesday, which is when they came a Drake Baldwin solo homer away from getting blanked by a Twins pitching staff that hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire so far this year.
The offense has clearly entered into another funk, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve scored two or fewer runs in three of their past five games. Five games in the grand scheme of things is a blip and hopefully the offense can come out agains Taj Bradley and make sure that it’s just a blip instead of something that might come to haunt the Braves during this winding road trip that they’re currently on.
Bradley himself has looked a bit vulnerable lately — he gave up five runs in four innings against the Phillies in his last outing and he’s given up at least three runs in each of his past three starts. While Bradley is still a perfectly fine starter (his 3.98 ERA, 95 ERA-, 4.05 FIP and 98 FIP- is proof of that) the Braves are in a situation where they’re going to have to find a way to make sure that Bradley continues to look (and be) vulnerable enough to give up some runs instead of this being a repeat of what we’ve seen for the past couple of nights and for most of the weekend as well.
Hopefully this won’t be another case of a Braves starter delivering a strong performance (or one that’s good enough to keep them in the game) while the offense sputters about in a low-scoring affair. It’s been tough enough sledding for the Braves over their past few games — let’s not exacerbate that with a sweep to start this weird road trip, folks!
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, August 19, 1:40 p.m. EDT
Pete Crow-Armstrong got me to the window again last night for another winning night, and the big day to flip the record is happening this week, hopefully today, with a full slate of all-day MLB player props and dingers.
It's Aaron Nola day, and Griffin Conine is the hot bat to target, and how is Pete Crow-Armstrong almost 200 points longer today to go deep? It makes little sense.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, August 19.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Griffin Conine
+388
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+510
Home run pick: Griffin Conine (+388)
It’s another Aaron Nola angle, as his 30 home runs allowed pace the league. He’s also coming off a game he had circled on the calendar in the Field of Dreams game, and over his last 12 starts, he’s allowed a dinger in 11 of them. I will bet against him every five days.
Griffin Conine is the bat you want to back today. He’s gone deep five times over his last 16 games and leads the Miami Marlins in several offensive categories this month. His 28% Blast Contact% in August is the fifth-best mark in baseball, behind Wilyer Abreu, Austin Riley, Randal Grichuk, and Jac Caglianone. Conine also homered Tuesday, his fifth of August.
I’ll take almost any hot bat in the best HR matchup at +300 or better.
Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marlins.TV, NBCSP
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+510)
Remain calm. This is not a drill. After two months of absolute raking, I thought the days of getting Pete Crow-Armstrong for a home run at +500 or better were long gone. I've had a price point of +300 or better to bet him, so when I saw +500 today, I had to do a double-take.
This is setting up like yesterday's game, with PCA facing a lefty opener, which is driving his odds up because of the lefty-lefty matchup. Well, even with a lefty opener last night, the MVP betting favorite opened the bottom of the first with a leadoff homer at +330.
So how is Sean Newcomb making his price almost 200 points longer? The wind is in at Wrigley, but nothing crazy enough to justify the prices we're seeing today.
I will back the MVP at +330 or better in almost any matchup.
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Chicago Sports Network
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 32-155, -2.07 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
\n\n\n\tNEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 18:Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres hits a home run in the first inning during the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 18, 2026 in New York, New York. . (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images) | Getty Images\t\n\n
The San Diego Padres opened their series against the New York Mets with a confounding 2-1 loss where they had four outs made at home plate in the first two innings of the game. Mets right fielder Carson Benge threw out Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado at the plate and left fielder A.J. Ewing threw out Xander Bogaerts at the plate as well. Luis Campusano was also out at the plate, but that came on a force out after Luis Rengifo grounded back to the pitcher with the bases loaded. Some questionable decisions in the first two innings of the series opener proved to be the difference in the game.
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The Padres and Mets met for the second game of the series on Tuesday and the difference in that game was Fernando Tatis Jr. The right fielder opened the scoring with a solo home run on the first pitch of the game to give San Diego a 1-0 lead after the first inning. Padres starter Robbie Ray found himself in trouble in the bottom of the second inning when he issued three walks to load the bases while recording just one out. He then got one of the hottest Mets hitters to ground out to Machado at third base who threw home to get the force at the plate and keep New York off the scoreboard.
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With the bases still loaded and two outs in the bottom of the second inning, Ray threw a 1-0 pitch to Francisco Lindor that he hit to right field. The ball traveled over the right field wall, but Tatis jumped up reached over the wall and caught the ball. He fell back toward the warning track, landing on his feet and held everyone in suspense until he produced the ball to left everyone know he took a home run and four runs away from the Mets.
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If that was not entertainment enough, Tatis returned to the plate in the top of the fifth inning with Cronenworth on base after a leadoff single. Tatis hit a bullet to right field which resulted in a two-run home run, giving him his second long ball of the game, and gave the Padres a 3-0 lead. San Diego would add to its total over the next four innings and New York scratched across two runs on solo home runs by Torrens and Luis Robert Jr. and the Padres went on to even the series with a 5-2 win at Citi Field.
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After his trouble in the second inning, Ray settled in and worked through six complete innings, allowing one run on three hits with three walks, which were all issued in the bottom of the second inning, and four strikeouts. Bradgley Rodriguez worked 0.1 innings, Adrian Morejon worked 1.2 innings and Mason Miller worked a scoreless ninth inning to secure the win for San Diego.
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The Padres manufactured a run in the top of the seventh inning when Rengifo and Machado walked with one out in the inning. Ty France followed with an RBI-single which allowed pinch runner Jase Bowen to score from second base. The play brought back memories of Monday night as Bowen raced home and slid in, but this time Ewing did not get the throw to the plate in time and San Diego took a 4-1 lead. After New York added a run on Robert Jr.’s solo shot in the bottom of the eighth inning, Machado responded in the top of the ninth with a two-out solo home run to push the score to 5-3. It was the third hit of the night for the third baseman, who finished 3-for-4 in the game with an RBI, a run scored, a walk and a strikeout.
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Tatis finished his day at the plate 2-for-5 with both of his hits being home runs. He had three RBI, scored two runs, and struck out once. Tatis was the difference for seven runs in the game. He drove in three for the Padres and took four away from the Mets with what might have been his best home run robbery yet. What will happen in the final game of the series today is anyone’s guess, but we will find out at 10:10 a.m.
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Padres News:
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Ethan Salas was recently promoted to Triple-A and after a lost season due to injury, he appears to be back on track as the rising star he was thought to be when he joined the San Diego system. Has he done enough to warrant a September call up? That is the question Gaslamp Ball would like readers to answer.
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The San Diego offense has caught fire and has been the key to its success since the All-Star break.
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Joe Musgrove has been the most talked about player with regards to reinforcements for the Padres, but they may have more help on the way as well after Samad Taylor began his rehab in an attempt to get back to the big-league roster.
The Boston Red Sox (-160) will send Payton Tolle to the mound as they look to complete a sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon.
Tolle has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, and he's a key factor in why I'm backing the home team with my Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Red Sox today: Boston Red Sox (-160)
The Boston Red Soxlead the majors in wOBA, OPS, and runs scored against right-handed pitching in August.
They’ll need to contend with a quality arm in Brandon Pfaadt, but a 4.74 SIERA indicates he’s not nearly as untouchable as his 0.54 ERA over the past month seems to show.
Payton Tolleleads all projected starters with a 2.51 SIERA during that time. The absence of Ketel Marte, and Nolan Arenado being banged up, will help Tolle limit the damage against a strong left-handed hitting Arizona Diamondbacks team.
Back the Red Sox to -165.
COVERS INTEL:Pfaadt's ninth percentile strikeout rate will lead to a lot of contact against a Red Sox team sitting second in line-drive rate vs. righties in August.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-110)
Pfaadt hasn’t allowed a home run since June 30, and he's only conceded multiple dingers in his first appearance of the season. His ability to limit power – aided by an 82nd-percentile ground-ball rate – helps him avoid blowup innings while keeping runs to a minimum.
Tolle posted an xERA below 3.0 in six of his last seven starts, including against quality offenses like what the Dodgers and White Sox field. He’s in excellent form, and the Diamondbacks missing Marte, their most powerful bat against lefties, will make Tolle's life easier.
Runs should be hard to come by, making the Under a bet to -120.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+400)
Wilyer Abreu is seeing the ball very well. Isolating Pfaadt’s pitch mix, Abreu is hitting .345 with a .379 ISO and leading the Red Sox in barrel rate over the last 15 games.
He's hit at least eight balls 350-plus feet during that span, more than double any other teammate.
Pfaadt has been more susceptible to conceding homers against powerful offenses, allowing 1.61 HR/9 when facing top-10 teams in OPS vs. righties over the last 20 games.
The Red Sox rank first in that regard, and Abreu has been driving the bus. Bet this to +375.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 83-76, -10.40 units
Over/Under bets: 84-69-6, +4.52 units
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox weather
Temperatures in the mid-80s are expected with some wind blowing out. There will be favorable hitting conditions.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox odds
Moneyline: Diamondbacks +140 | Red Sox -160
Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-145) | Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-115)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox trend
Boston has hit the moneyline in 37 of the last 50 games (+19.30 units, 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Red Sox and game info
Location
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date
Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026
First pitch
4:10 p.m. ET
TV
NESN, DBACKS.TV
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Brandon Pfaadt (7-1, 3.11 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher
Payton Tolle (8-6, 2.97 ERA)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 17: Andruw Monasterio #32 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with teammates after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks at Fenway Park on Monday, August 17, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Joe Sullivan/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning! Haven’t had enough of historic win streaks this season? Good news! The Sox are currently on another one. With their win over the DBacks last night, the Sox won their 15th consecutive game against teams that entered the game with a record of .500 or better. The last time they lost to a team over .500 was all the way back on July 1 against the Nationals, aka their last lost before going on their historic 15-gamer.
According to CBS Sports, this is the longest such streak in MLB history, topping the 1933 Washington Senators (who, yes, were technically called the Nationals at the time, even if no one used that moniker):
Use this space to talk about what continues to be the weirdest regular season in Red Sox history and whatever else you want and, as always, be good to one another.
DENVER (AP) — Shohei Ohtani hit a two-run shot to reach 30 homers for the sixth straight season and Freddie Freeman had two hits and two RBIs as the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Colorado Rockies 7-6 on Tuesday night.
Teoscar Hernandez had a triple and double, and Tommy Edman doubled twice as the Dodgers broke out of an offensive slump in Denver.
Los Angeles scored 10 runs in the four-game series against Milwaukee over the weekend. Against Colorado, the Dodgers have scored 18 runs on 24 hits with four homers, including three by Ohtani, in the first two games of the three-game set.
Ohtani’s 30th homer traveled 448 feet into the Los Angeles bullpen off Ryan Feltner (5-7) and gave the Dodgers a 3-1 lead in the third inning. The Rockies tied it in the bottom of the inning before Los Angeles went ahead again in the fourth.
Edman, Kyle Tucker and Hernandez doubled in the inning to make it 5-3, and Hernandez scored on Freeman’s sacrifice fly.
Eric Lauer (8-6) allowed four runs on six hits with six strikeouts in five innings. The 31-yeare-old left-hander has been one of the best starters for Los Angeles since coming over from Toronto on May 17. He went 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA in his first 11 starts with the Dodgers.
Before the game, Los Angeles placed closer Edwin Diaz on the injured list with neck inflammation and recalled righty Emmet Sheehan from Triple-A. Tanner Scott, elevated to the closer role, earned his 17th save when he got TJ Rumfield to pop out to short with the tying run on.
Colorado’s Will Castro hit his 14th homer of the season, a solo shot in the fifth inning.
Up next
Dodgers RHP Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.46 ERA) faces Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland (4-10, 6.27) in the finale of the three-game series Wednesday night.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Athletics outfielder Tyler Soderstrom is headed for season-ending hip surgery after going on the injured list for an impingement in the left hip.
A’s manager Mark Kotsay said Tuesday that Soderstrom would have the procedure Friday. The club placed him on the 10-day injured list on Sunday. It was his second stint on the IL with this ailment over the summer after struggling since his return from it July 8.
Soderstrom saw a specialist in Los Angeles on Monday and the decision was made to shut him down for good.
The 24-year-old Soderstrom batted .245 with 19 home runs and 56 RBIs in 109 games this season and was riding an 11-game hitting streak. He set career highs with 25 homers, 93 RBIs and a .276 batting average over 158 games last season.
It has become clear over the last few months that a flawed team will make the playoffs out of the American League. The Orioles, along with several other teams, have found a way to remain in contention for the third and final wild card spot despite sitting on the wrong side of .500.
Reason would suggest that one of these teams will separate themselves at some point, but it hasn’t happened yet. Now, after an impressive series in Tampa Bay, fans are starting to wonder if the Orioles could be that team.
Why not? Nope. Not doing that. But, for real, is there any reason why the Orioles wouldn’t be capable of emerging from the pack? Actually, yes. There’s plenty of them. The bullpen marks a clear vulnerability. The defense could come back to haunt this team at any point, and the lineup is filled with inconsistent performers that could regress at any moment.
That being said, Baltimore has provided several reasons to look at the glass half full. Pete Alonso has been that dude. Jackson Holliday is swinging a hot bat, and Gunnar Henderson appears to have remembered who he is. Coby Mayo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have provided some pop from the hot corner. The starting rotation looks like a unit that could go out and win a three game series. Samuel Basallo has already started a rehab assignment. Blaze Alexander should return at some point, and the Orioles have a pair of rehabbing closers that could return by the end of the season.
The American League refused to bury the Orioles when they had the chance. As dark as things seemed this season, Baltimore always maintained a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. At the time, it felt like Baltimore would need to luck into that spot. The team would need to fall upward into a position that every other team decided to run away from. Even if the Orioles made the playoffs, they wouldn’t have truly earned it.
That sentiment has changed. Baltimore entered last night’s game with New York tied for the third wild card spot. They also entered the series with the toughest remaining schedule in the American League. The Orioles still have five games remaining against New York, four against Boston, and three with Tampa Bay. That’s life in the AL East, but Baltimore will also play a three-game set against the National League leading Milwaukee Brewers.
If the Orioles hope to make the playoffs, they need to go out and earn it against the league’s best. If they do it—and that’s a big if—they should enter the postseason with a mindset that they can beat any team on any given night.
The tough schedule feels like bad luck, but it’s really a golden opportunity for Baltimore to recapture its mojo heading into the postseason. If the Orioles make the playoffs, they’ll have played above .500 baseball against some of the league’s best. That, or they’ll completely smoke the Mets, Rockies and A’s while treading water against the rest.
There are some easy ones coming, but this is a “go out and earn it” type of week. A homestand against the Yankees and Rays is exactly the type of opportunity this team needs to prove it’s for real. The players may or may not feel a need to prove it to the front office after a deadline sell off, and there’s no way of knowing whether they want to prove it to the fans, but this group should want to prove it to themselves. Recently, they’ve been playing like a unit doing just that.
It feels like we’re putting the cart before the horse here, but I’ve completely lost faith in the other AL teams. The question now becomes whether this team is capable of going out and taking it. One strong week and all bets are off when it comes to the 2026 Orioles. What a world.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - AUGUST 16: Bryson Stott #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws to first base to get out Victor Caratini #37 of the Minnesota Twins (not pictured) during the sixth inning at Target Field on August 16, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Matt Krohn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We’re in the second half of August. There’s plenty of baseball left to play, but we are in the days where the schedule takes on a greater importance, where each series carries a greater heft. The Phillies are currently fighting to hold on to their playoff position, occupying the second wild card spot, one game ahead of San Diego and two ahead of Arizona.
The Phillies have a West Coast trip coming up, with visits to Seattle, Anaheim and Arizona. After that, the schedule returns to NL East play, with a brief interlude against Houston. Home against Atlanta, home against Houston, and then a road trip involving another series against Atlanta, a pair of games against Washington, and a series against the Mets.
Following that, the Phillies will finish up the regular season at home, with three games against the Brewers, and three against the Rays.
All of these will matter; any of them could be pivotal. So today’s question is: as the season approaches the finish line, which series do you have circled as the most crucial?
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - AUGUST 18: Drake Baldwin #30 of the Atlanta Braves hits a solo home run against the Minnesota Twins in the sixth inning at Target Field on August 18, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Braves 4-1. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
If I’ve heard anything about Ronald Acuña Jr. via the internet, it’s that Ronnie can’t hit the hot fastball. It’s not really true. He’s league-average via xwOBA (he’s striking 96+ MPH fastballs as good as your average hitter). He has less to show for it as the wOBA runs about 30 points lower for his career.
Do you know who isn’t hitting fastballs well since August 3rd (not including yesterday)? This collective Braves team, that’s who unfortunately. The Braves are dead last versus fastball per wOBA and on-base percentage, second-worst by batting average, and sixth-worst by xwOBA. Contrast this to before August 3rd when they were 12th by BA and wOBA, 18th by OBP, and ninth by xwOBA.
What’s weirder is lefties have been most affected. That’s a 59-point gap in xwOBA and a 107 point one in slugging. It’s really been Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Jim Jarvis that are most affected. Matt Olson is still chugging along with no issue, Michael Harris is down but outstripping his xwOBA and Mike Yastrzemski is chipping in.
Righties feeling it as well but not as deeply. The xwOBA is still okayish but they’re underperforming there. But the on-base percentage is down, which suggested that they’re chasing a fair bit. Regardless, it’s an issue that all the Braves have to solve soon. The Braves are seeing the eleventh most pitches in the zone since the trade deadline, versus 29th before. Opposing pitchers are hunting more strikes in the zone, because they can sense blood the same as we can.
So why have the Braves stopped mashing fastballs? Is this more Tim Hyers tinkering? Did the post-All-Star Break surge end as the team has tired? I don’t know, but they’re so much more fun when they’re killing fastballs.
Personally, I would not recommend winning games this way on a regular basis.
But the Cubs seem to have found the knack for taking leads, giving them up, coming from behind and winning in a walk-off. They did it again Tuesday night at Wrigley Field — including a long rain delay — defeating the White Sox 4-3, this time on an Alex Bregman single in the ninth inning.
That was PCA’s sixth leadoff homer of the season and 31st of the year, which ties his career high, set last year.
More from BCB’s JohnW53:
Pete Crow-Armstrong has homered for the Cubs’ first hit in three straight games: in the third inning on Sunday, then leading off Monday and Tuesday.
The Cubs’ first hit has been a homer in 21 games, exactly one of every six.
Crow-Armstrong has done it seven times; Seiya Suzuki, four times; Alex Bregman, Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson, twice; and Michael Busch, Michael Conforto, Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw, once. Six of PCA’s and Hoerner’s led off games.
The White Sox used left-handed opener Bryan Hudson in the first inning to counter the lefty hitters at the top of the Cubs lineup. Hudson retired all three right-handed hitters he faced (Seiya Suzuki, Bregman and Nico Hoerner) and the two lefties homered off him. Go figure.
Kevin Gausman struggled through the early innings. He walked the first two Sox he faced, but got out of the inning with a double play. Then he allowed three hits resulting in a run after retiring the first two Sox hitters in the second, a monster home run to Munetaka Murakami in the third that hit the left-field video board, and another run in the fourth on a pair of doubles that gave the Sox the lead. During that inning Craig Counsell and trainer Nick Frangella visited Gausman and after quite a delay, he remained in the game. Gausman came out for the fifth, allowed a one-out single, then got the trainer visit again and left the game [VIDEO].
Here’s why:
Per #Cubs, Kevin Gausman left the game with a left hand cramp.
Gausman’s outing was obviously not good, and a cramp on your non-pitching hand is a weird way to leave a ballgame. Hopefully, things will go better next time. Here’s Gausman explaining what happened [VIDEO].
The Cubs had two runners on leading off the second on singles by Pedro Ramirez and Ian Happ, but didn’t score, and after Happ’s single, Sox bulk guy Erick Fedde retired 13 of the next 14 Cubs in order, so they trailed 3-2 at the end of the fifth.
Meanwhile, Javier Assad had relieved Gausman and got out of the fifth inning with a double play. Then Assad threw two more scoreless innings and struck out Andrew Benintendi leading off the eighth. I don’t know what more Assad has to do to convince Counsell and the brass to put him back in the rotation. Three innings, two hits, no runs, a pair of strikeouts, 40 pitches, 28 strikes. In nine games since the beginning of July: 1.71 ERA, 1.137 WHIP in 31.2 innings. To quote the old Kyle Hendricks mantra: “All he does is get guys out.”
The Cubs tied the game in the bottom of the seventh. Miguel Amaya led off with a walk and Kevin Alcántara ran for him. Michael Conforto also walked, putting the tying run in scoring position. But the next two Cubs, PCA and Suzuki, struck out. (Suzuki didn’t have a good game on his birthday, going 0-for-5 with three K’s.)
After Assad had struck out Benintendi to begin the eighth, Counsell summoned Caleb Thielbar, who’s not had a good year. But Thielbar was effective on this night, allowing a two-out single but then getting Chase Meidroth to ground out to end the inning.
After nearly 90 minutes, the game resumed. The Cubs went out 1-2-3 in the bottom of the eighth and Jacob Webb, who has been outstanding for the last two months, entered to throw the ninth. He allowed a two-out walk but got out of the inning with a ground ball to Busch.
Carson Kelly, who had entered the game in the eighth, led off the bottom of the ninth with a double. Then Michael Conforto was called out on strikes. This time, unlike Monday, the Sox intentionally passed PCA to put runners on first and second. Suzuki popped up in foul territory to Murakami, who made a nice sliding catch [VIDEO].
That was the Cubs’ 13th walk-off win this year. More from John:
The Cubs had consecutive walk-offs once this season before Monday and Tuesday. They won three straight vs. the Reds on May 4-6, the last two in 10 innings.
The Cubs now have 13 walk-off wins. Going into yesterday, no other team had more than nine.
The 13 walk-offs tie them with 1932 and 2015 for their second most in a season by the Cubs. They had 14 in 1930.
The MLB record for walk-off wins in a season is 17, set by the Pirates in 1959 and tied by them in 1977. Just in case, you know.
This team has shown resilience all year — after the rough losses over the weekend, to have two walk-offs in a row like this against a tenacious White Sox team is a really good result. As I mentioned at the top of this recap — this is not the recommended way to win games, but it’s certainly exciting and entertaining. The Cubs have again reached their season high at 21 games over .500 and since June 10 are 40-19, half a game behind the Red Sox for the best record in MLB over that span.
The Brewers destroyed the Mariners 22-0 Tuesday, matching the biggest shutout in MLB history, though the last nine runs were scored off a position player. So the Cubs continue to trail them by 4.5 games in the NL Central.
The Cubs will go for the series sweep Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Clay Holmes will start for the Cubs and once again, the Sox will use a left-handed opener, this time Sean Newcomb. José Urquidy will likely be the “bulk guy” after Newcomb. Game time is 1:20 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network (and CHSN and WCIU-Ch. 26 with the Sox announcers).
The Mets conclude a three-game series against the Padres at Citi Field on Wednesday afternoon at 1:10 on SNY.
Mets Notes
Carson Benge is hitting .297/.361/.451 in 216 plate appearances dating back to June 18
Francisco Lindor has an .809 OPS with 10 homers in 200 plate appearances since returning from the IL on June 24
Bo Bichette is hitting .316/.357/.472 (.829 OPS) with seven homers and 13 doubles in 252 plate appearances dating back to June 11
Robert Stock allowed one run (which was unearned) on three hits while walking three and striking out five in 4.1 innings against the Nationals in his last start
Today's Lineups
PADRES
METS
Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
A.J. Ewing, CF
Jake Cronenworth, 2B
Francisco Lindor, SS
Manny Machado, DH
Bo Bichette, 3B
Ty France, 1B
Carson Benge, RF
Jackson Merrill, CF
Jared Young, 1B
Luis Rengifo, LF
Francisco Alvarez, DH
Luis Campusano, C
Brett Baty, LF
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Marcus Semien, 2B
Sung-Mun Song, 3B
Luis Torrens, C
What channel is SNY?
Check your TV or streaming provider's website or channel finder to find your local listings.
How can I stream the game?
The way to stream SNY games is via the MLB App or MLB.tv.
Open “MLB” and tap on “Subscriber Login” for Apple Devices or “Sign in with MLB.com” for Android Devices.
Type in your MLB.com credentials and tap “Log In.”
To access live or on-demand content, tap on the "Watch" tab from the bottom navigation bar. Select the "Games" sub-tab to see a listing of available games. You can scroll to previous dates using the left and right arrows. Tap on a game to select from the game feeds available.
For more information on how to stream Mets games on SNY, please click here.
The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins wrap up a three-game set this afternoon at Target Field, with the visitors sitting as a slim -104 moneyline favorite for the series finale.
However, my Braves vs. Twins predictions see value in Minnesota, who have been in much better offensive form lately.
The Atlanta Braves recalled right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver to start today after a couple of outings at Triple-A Gwinnett. Smith-Shawver made his 2026 debut in late July after recovering from injury and looked solid, allowing two earned runs in 4 1/3 frames.
That is still a tiny sample, and he faces a Minnesota Twins offense with a 118 wRC+ over the last week. I do not expect a long leash, which matters with the Braves bullpen owning a 7.21 FIP over its last 18 2/3 innings while giving up 2.89 HR/9.
Taj Bradley has been respectable with a 4.37 monthly FIP, and the Braves are ice cold with a 64 wRC+ over their last six games.
Play up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: The Braves have struggled offensively on the road with a 91 wRC+. At home, that number sits at 107.
Braves vs Twins Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+101)
I'm leaning toward the Under tonight, although it's not a slam-dunk angle. Atlanta's inconsistencies at the dish are a big reason for this play, and although Bradley isn't untouchable, he has been better at Target Field, and Minnesota's bullpen owns a 3.67 xERA over the last week.
As previously mentioned, Atlanta's relief corps is getting hit around the ballpark, but Minnesota will have to do the brunt of the scoring here, which is why I like the Under. The Braves have scored just three runs in this series so far.
Smith-Shawver was also decent in Triple-A, and I do not expect him to get completely lit up.
Play this pick down to -110.
Braves vs Twins home run prediction: Josh Bell (+474)
Josh Bell has always had big-time power, and I’m eyeing him to go yard again today. While the slugger has just one homer in his last six games, he owns a 42.1% hard-hit rate during that span and a 44.2% fly-ball rate over the last two weeks. He also homered on Tuesday.
It is hard to judge Smith-Shawver off his recent outings, but the Braves’ bullpen gives Bell a clearer path. Atlanta’s relief corps has allowed homers at an alarming rate while giving up nearly half of its contact in the air over the last week.
Bell is worth a look at this price.
Play this pick down to +450.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 53-64, -18.67 units
Over/Under bets: 66-48, +8.85 units
Braves vs Twins weather
Weather at Target Field looks excellent today, with mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing from 74°F to 78°F during the afternoon. Winds are very light around 2–5 mph, and rain chances sit at 0%. Overall, conditions look clean and neutral, with no delay concern or major weather impact.
Braves vs Twins odds
Moneyline: Braves -104 | Twins -100
Run line: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Twins +1.5 (-156)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)
Braves vs Twins trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 away games (+10.75 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Twins.
How to watch Braves vs Twins and game info
Location
Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Date
Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026
First pitch
1:40 p.m. ET
TV
Twins.TV, BravesVsion
Braves starting pitcher
AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 4.15 ERA)
Twins starting pitcher
Taj Bradley (9-5, 3.98 ERA)
Braves vs Twins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Griffin Conine
Pete Crow-Armstrong
COVERS INTEL:
