Brayden Taylor might just be a top prospect again

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 19, 2026: Brayden Taylor #80 of the Tampa Bay Rays reacts after drawing a walk during the fourth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the New York Mets at Clover Park on March 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

For nearly two full years, Brayden Taylor looked like another minor leaguer whose career would stagnate once he reached Double-A.

Originally selected by the Rays as the 19th overall selection in the 2023 draft, Taylor has an excellent debut campaign, hitting .242/.361/.516 with 5 HR over 108 PA over the remaining minor league season. He followed that up by torching High-A in 2024, hitting .269/.389/.513 with 14 HR and 26 SB, registering a 154 wRC+ over 383 plate appearances.

With his stellar play, the Rays promoted Taylor to Double-A on July 30th, 2024; he hasn’t been able to move past Montgomery since that promotion.

Brayden Taylor is a 5-tool player but none of his tools are much above average. He is a solid defender with a good arm; there’s some pop in his bat but no one would consider him a true power threat. His hit tool is decent but he won’t win any batting titles. That gives you a player whose five tools all grade around 50 or 55.

During his first full year in the Rays system, Taylor displayed exactly what type of player that could translate into. From August 4th, 2023 through July 27th, 2024, Taylor hit .263/.383/.514 with 19 HR over 491 plate appearances.

But once in Double-A, Taylor struggled to adapt to the more advanced pitching and his strikeouts skyrocketed. Over 125 plate appearances in Double-A in 2024, Taylor hit .194/.290/.435 with 6 HR, registering a 113 wRC+.

Despite his struggles in Double-A, Taylor was ranked as the Rays 2nd best prospect entering 2025 and 65th overall in the game by Baseball America.

But the disappointing end to 2024 merely foreshadowed his bleak 2025 campaign. He suffered through mechanical issues and just plain old bad luck. After 437 plate appearances, Taylor hit just .173/.289/.286 with 8 HR, registering a 77 wRC+; the 77 wRC+ was among the bottom 20% of the league.

It can be said that Taylor was among the unluckiest players in all of minor league baseball in 2025. He finished the year hitting .173, which was the 2nd lowest batting average in MiLB, which at least in part was due to a .229 BABIP. There were 607 players who had at least 400 plate appearances last season and Taylor’s .229 BABIP was the 2nd lowest behind Juan Baez’s .226 clip.

The Rays did do some tinkering with Taylor in July to try to get the former first round pick going and he did have slightly more success over the second half of the year (97 wRC+ over 173 PA). After the season, Taylor was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .264/.400/.472. According to FanGraphs, the Rays had Taylor alter his hand and bat positioning.

It precipitated a swing change — his hands are starting lower and his bat is more vertical than before — that has him covering elevated fastballs much better than he was. Taylor is missing far fewer in-zone pitches with this new swing

By 2026, Taylor had vanished from prospect rankings, completely dropping on Baseball America’s top 30, falling all the way to 39th.

Prior to the season, Taylor spoke to David Laurila of FanGraphs and went into elaborate detail of his swing changes and the struggles he had endured over the past two years. The purpose of changing Taylor’s swing would be to allow his swing stay through the zone longer and thus have a better opportunity to make better contact.

“The biggest thing we focused on was my hip line,” explained the lefty-hitting Taylor. “My hips were staying too far uphill with my leg lift. Instead of bringing my leg straight up and down, we worked on bringing it to my midsection to keep the hips online so that I can be in a better position at launch.

“Doing that changed my bat path,” he added. “Instead of my body being so uphill, and the bat just coming up and out of the zone, the adjustment allowed me to stay in the zone a lot longer. The bat being in the zone a lot longer is what I want. I want to be able to hit through seven baseballs, not come up and hit only one of them. Right? I want to have that adjustability to be able to stay through it and hit as many balls as I can.”

Taylor began the 2026 season back in Double-A and entering his last year before being eligible for the Rule 5 draft, a pivotal season in a minor leaguer’s career.

After one month, it looked like more of the same from Taylor as he finished April hitting .162, but a low BABIP suggested bad luck may be an issue; Taylor’s walk (15.0%) and strikeout (17.5%) numbers were solid.

In early May, Taylor missed several games but returned to game action on May 8th. The following day, his season and possibly career completely turned around.

From May 9th through July 23rd, Brayden Taylor has hit .329/.415/.605 with 14 HR over 248 PA, registering a 165 wRC+. He has kept a solid strikeout rate of 24.6% over that stretch of time. His BABIP is .396 but he was due for regression considering his previous bad luck over the past two seasons. Despite his poor start to the season, Taylor now ranks 13th among all Double-A hitters with a 136 wRC+ and his overall BABIP is .325 which ranks 52nd of 170 qualifying hitters.

Meanwhile Taylor still has the plus speed and plus defense that had made him a top prospect.

Of course, the argument can be made that Taylor now has over two years of experience at the Double-A level and is getting old for the level. Baseball America hasn’t believed in his turnaround enough to push him back in the Rays top 30. However, FanGraphs in their latest update actually has Brayden Taylor among the top 100 prospects in the game at 75th overall and 6th overall in the Rays system and that’s including the Rays draft class of 2026.

Taylor changed his swing and is less vulnerable to elevated fastballs than he has been in the past. He’s going to get to power and play plus-plus defense at second and third base, or viable defense at shortstop if the Rays need him to. 

At this point in the season, Taylor is slated to post the highest average, on-base, and slugging percentage numbers of his career while also reaching a new career high in homeruns hit as well as posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career.

The next step for Taylor will be seeing if he can maintain this type of production at the next rung of the minor league ladder in Triple-A Durham.

Three paths to a perfect trade deadline for the Seattle Mariners

SEATTLE, WA - JULY 18: Heliot Ramos #17 of the San Francisco Giants takes batting practice prior to the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Saturday, July 18, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Eric Hiller/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The 2026 season has not been a fairy tale follow-up to the historic 2025 campaign for the Seattle Mariners. The .500-hugging club has sounded less like a well-oiled machine and more like my favorite Steel-type evolutionary line from the fifth generation of the Pokémon games. But the second half has been where Seattle has turned things on this decade, with winning records every second half since 2021 and better records post-All-Star Break than prior in all but one campaign. To make the playoffs and defend their AL West crown, they’ll need to do so once more, and for that they’ll need to address some of their clear weaknesses ahead of the August 3rd trade deadline. The sooner they make a move, the sooner they can improve, and the Jerry Dipoto/Justin Hollander Mariners have frequently been willing to come out swinging ahead of the final rush.

This summer, Seattle’s solutions are a bit clunky, but their needs are clear. I’ve been told lists are bullet points are an AI thing but like the mighty em dash and superfluous similes, the robots can drag them from my warm, meaty mitts or rust in hell.

  1. At least one potent righty bat. Seattle’s been one of the worst teams in the league against left-handed pitching, and while it’s unsurprising given the lefty-dominated nature of their roster since day one, it’s been exacerbated by absences and/or ineffectiveness from Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and Victor Robles, as well as craterous performance from Rob Refsnyder and Leo Rivas who were hoped to have some stabilizing skill against southpaws.
  2. Long and/or impact relief. Seattle has been running a combination of the piggyback and a six-man rotation for most of the year, flexing the luxury of their stellar rotation depth but forcing difficult and narrow usage of their bullpen. Injuries to Matt Brash and Cooper Criswell, along with a lack of emergence from any of The Pile to this point, have left the M’s pen bifurcated. This split is between an “A” pen of Andrés Muñoz, Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier, and Jose A. Ferrer, and a “C or D+” pen of Nick Davila, Cole Wilcox, and Michael Rucker at present, which has also featured Alex Hoppe and now-departed Casey Legumina, among others. It’s left Seattle close to punting several close games when they’ve trailed due to not wishing to exhaust their top arms, but with only seven options to use, they’re putting out unproven arms whose performance is more mop-up than lockdown.
  3. Ace. Yes, Seattle currently has “too many” starters. No, they’re not of a caliber easily upgraded on. But this M’s roster’s weakest positions thus far are catcher, first base, and the left side of the infield writ large. At all four positions, Seattle has players under contract extensions, the least lengthy of which obviously being J.P. Crawford. Any major righty bat acquired will either fill a corner outfield or third base role, but despite his recent struggles and possible injury, Crawford has looked and graded out at least fine at the hot corner to be lower-priority in terms of replacement seeking. In terms of what is available on the market, the possibility of consolidating the M’s rotation into a stronger five is a real pathway forward, even if every permutation is painful.

There is some overlap in each deal, which are designed to be possible individually as centerpiece moves. However, with some tweaking, multiple deals could be done as one. As a reminder, these are projected fits, based on my evaluation of an appropriate deal. All of the players targeted have been listed due to fit and public reporting that they are at minimum available in trades per industry sourcing.

1. The Giant fit

Seattle Mariners acquire OF Heliot Ramos& RHP Jason Foley
San Francisco Giants acquire OF Jonny Farmelo& RHP Christian Little

Circle pegs for circular holes. Seattle’s easiest solution to their issues against lefties is acquiring someone who has hit them excellently his whole career. Their easiest pathway to improving their bullpen depth is adding a decent, low-cost reliever capable of leverage work. Easy, meet peasy.

The selling point on Ramos is that he fits the mold of position players Seattle has targeted at deadlines past. Rarely willing to go for a true “rental” beyond depth bullpen arms (which Brubaker would be) in this second window of Dipoto-era contention, Ramos would join Seattle in his final year of pre-arbitration. In 1547 plate appearances, mostly consolidated over the past three years, the 26 year old has a .258/.316/.425 line, good for a 107 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR in 376 games as of Friday, July 24. Drafted 19th overall in 2017 out of Leadership Christian HS in Puerto Rico, Ramos spent several years creeping up prospect lists and was seen as a likely impact bat with some defensive limitations that would push him to a corner outfield role sooner rather than later. Despite debuting in 2022, poor performance and oblique injuries dimmed his star by age 23, but he put up a strong age 24 campaign in 2024. 2025 and 2026 have been a bit behind that pace, but he’s hit and performed ably this year at a 107 wRC+ and career-best barrel rates and expected batting average, weighted on-base, and slugging. His BABIP has been high for an average runner, but when your hard hit rate is over 50% you are not purely getting lucky.

Crucially, Ramos crushes lefties. He’s crushed them his whole career, and he’s crushing them this year. Around league-average vs. RHP, in 433 plate appearances vs. LHP at the big league level, he’s gone .282/.346/.510 with a 135 wRC+ and an 8.3% walk rate against 25.6% strikeouts. He’s been a tick better at 144 wRC+ this year. He’s the only right-handed hitter to ever hit a splash down ball into McCovey Bay in San Francisco, and has room still to improve on his plus power.

Ramos has managed to slug reasonably despite playing in Oracle Park, a locale notoriously hard to homer in that is actually more challenging for sluggers than T-Mobile Park. While the park does give greater opportunity for gap triples, Ramos is more of a glide double or big fly kind of guy. That does make Ramos a shade more all-or-nothing, as he’s run career-high strikeout rates and low walk rates. However, as a defensive fit, Ramos is at least a neutral move compared to Luke Raley and/or Randy Arozarena in an outfield corner, with a strong arm that should fit in the relatively tame dimensions of T-Mobile Park.

It’s with an eye to those players that this move also makes sense, with Ramos potentially slotting in to fill the space in the next three years as Seattle likely will be looking to replace the departing Randy Arozarena. Whether Ramos would be a full-time player as he’s been the past three years or a sort of 0.8 FTE type in pairing with Raley, Dominic Canzone, and Brendan Donovan over the next couple years, there is a hand-in-glove sort of fit with a player as talented and consistently decent, while still so young.

Foley receives fewer words, but solves a need. He’s a career reliever who grew into a high-leverage role with the Tigers before injuries wiped him out for all of 2025. Dealt this winter in a package to the Giants, he was expected to miss Opening Day but has only gotten into two games thus far, one against Seattle. He’s a sinker-heavy righty with a groundball profile that helps him be hyper-efficient, and he was deployed as both a closer and a fireman in his time with Detroit. In his first year of arbitration, Foley is earning $2 million, but won’t likely see that sum rise significantly next year due to the time he’s missed the past two years, making him an undisruptive add for the M’s financially as well.

The prospect cost is recognizable. I prefer keeping Michael Arroyo to Farmelo, the former of whom Seattle is hoping prospers as a player not unlike Ramos himself. That might mean he’s a more sensible player to deal away, with Farmelo still projecting like a plus center fielder, but I also prefer Arroyo’s bat and skillset overall. Farmelo was recently promoted to Double-A, and fits the Giants’ need for a rangy outfielder who can handle their massive confines, something Arroyo decidedly has not shown an acuity for. He’s also been more swing-and-miss prone than any of Seattle’s top prospects save for Lazaro Montes, at a lower level. And yet, he is performing well at just age 21, having lost significant reps to a brutal ACL injury that seems physically well in his past. He has a case to be the likeliest position player star in Seattle’s system currently. Little is a slower burn righty, whose managed to miss bats in multi-inning work with High-A Everett in his age 22 season. Highly touted as a prep, he’s gone from Vanderbilt to LSU to the pros, finding his best outcomes in the bullpen. While this return might disappoint one hopeful Giants fan, I do think it stings enough to be in the right range while still being sensible given Ramos will see his salary grow in the next three years.

Conclusion: Do it. The Mariners should make this move for their immediate and mid-term future. The Giants are profoundly in need of the exact talent ceiling and positional fit that Farmelo affords. Seattle gets a player both younger and with a longer track record of hitting than Casey Schmitt, who has also been suggested as a target, at the cost of some defensive versatility.

Alternatively… OF Luis Robert Jr. of the Mets is a more expensive, less healthy option Seattle could target, whose salary and inconsistency would make him less prospect-intensive to acquire. He’s similarly scorched southpaws all career long. Unlike Ramos, he’s on an expiring deal, making him more equivalent to the Yonder Alonso deal of 2017. Unlike Byron Buxton, who has a similar skillset and injury bug but is vastly more consistent as a performer, Robert is sure to be available. Unlike Seiya Suzuki, it’s easier to make the move fit with a non-contender than a contender.

2. Lock Down the Pen

Seattle Mariners acquire LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Jeremiah Estrada, & OF Ramón Laureano
San Diego Padres acquire RHP Emerson Hancock, 2B/OF Ryan Bliss, & OF Carlos Jimenez

If you want to solidify Seattle’s bullpen, the NL West has ample options to satisfy. I put together similar deals with the Colorado Rockies (centered on RHP Antonio Senzatela and RHP Victor Vodnik or RHP Jimmy Herget, which would likely require a bit less in return) and Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Kevin Ginkel and RHP Ryan Thompson, even cheaper but firmly upgrading the depth of the pen). But for impact, San Diego has the goods, and the clubs are in conversations already. I don’t believe Seattle will target Mason Miller or Louis Varland, the two most impactful relievers on seller teams. It’s not been their MO in years past to extend major resources for the most volatile type of player, and until this year they’ve managed to whip up at least one solid arm internally annually.

But Morejon and Estrada are in a second tier, leverage arms who can and have been deployed flexibly with years of strong performance to point to in their resumés. Morejon is simply one of the five or 10 best relievers in baseball over the past three years, ranking fourth in fWAR since the start of 2024 with 5.2, trailing only Cade Smith of Cleveland (7.2), Miller (7.0), and Jhoan Duran of the Twins and Phillies (5.2).

The 27 year old Cuban has managed 191.1 innings of relief in that time, also fourth-most, while appearing in the sixth-most games (182). An expiring free agent, pitching early and often is nothing new for Morejon, who debuted in the Cuban National Series (the nation’s top domestic league) at the age of 15 and in MLB at just 20 years of age. He’s sat in the upper-90s his entire career, and since transitioning to a bullpen role in 2022 has largely locked down late innings for San Diego. Set for free agency this winter, Morejon is a tricky candidate for a qualifying offer, as his early-career injuries and inconsistency kept his arbitration salaries low but his youth and track record should yield a decent return. San Diego is likely to get better value in trading him than what might be a huge spike in payroll they’re not keen to risk given the lofty salaries already on the books.

That latter point is the purpose of Laureano’s inclusion, although the fiery veteran could feature in a late season platoon role if he’s able to return healthy from the hip labrum surgery he had in June to address nagging discomfort he’s been facing for years. More likely, he’ll simply continue his rehabilitation by turning right instead of left when he arrives at the complex in Peoria. What this does allow of interest to San Diego beyond merely shaving $6.5 million (prorated) from their salary is to scoot much closer to being under the luxury tax threshold.

For 2026, MLB has set the tax threshold at $244 million for clubs. San Diego currently is around $10-15 million above that level, and would be exceeding the tax for the second consecutive year, incurring a 30% additional tax on any payroll over that $244 million level. With new ownership and a seeming desire to continue contending while resetting their tax status (and with it some of their additional draft pick and international bonus pool circumstances as well), moving Laureano helps save San Diego more money than he’s owed while also improving their future prospects more directly.

That leaves Estrada, who is nearing the conclusion of rehabbing knee inflammation that sidelined him for a month and a half. The 27 year old is under contract for three years after this one, albeit all arbitration, which will make him a player not as lightly parted with. He’s another flamethrower, though his velocity has been down two ticks this year, perhaps in part connected to his knee issues. What Estrada excels at is getting punchouts, profiling much more as a leverage, shutdown arm than the multi-inning type.

Personally, I’ve found Estrada’s style and stuff to be some of my favorite in the majors for years. He throws a four-seamer with excellent ride and a Fernando Rodney-esque splitter and a delivery that looks like he’s uncorking from an Adirondack chair. He can handle hitters of all handedness, and gives Seattle an incredibly imposing pen to lean on night in and night out for multiple years.

The cost is sizable, as it should be, but in keeping with prices at 2025’s deadline which saw controlled relievers like Duran and Varland dealt for well-regarded prospects that were nonetheless not necessarily top-100 names. Ryan Helsley, a strong comparable to Morejon this year, cost an array of lower minors players but none earth-shattering.

Still, this is a big deal purely by number of names exchanged. That’s always worrisome in trade prognostication, but I think it’s a fair fit. San Diego doesn’t want to tank, they want to reload cheaply. Hancock immediately can justify the deal himself if he continues performing as he’s done in this breakout season. He’ll be under contract through 2030 if desired, not hitting arbitration until 2028. The measurable and meaningful improvements in his repertoire are reflected in his results and his peripherals, even with some BABIP fortune. But he’s had 105.1 good innings this year after 165.2 pretty rough ones, and never dominated in the minors up to his pedigree. The deal will take a bit more breadth.

For the Friars, again, this move prioritizes depth and proximity. Bliss is not included as a major piece, he’s simply more useful for San Diego than he is for Seattle, where he could actually play a useful role or be allowed the chance to try. San Diego’s upper minors infield depth is ghastly and old in baseball terms. More important is Jimenez, who fits in an area of cavernous absence in San Diego’s system. Low-to-mid-minors outfielders are few and far between for the Padres, and Jimenez is in the midst of a breakout campaign of his own. The 23 year old Dominican does everything well, albeit nothing extraordinarily, and should be slated for a taste of Double-A Arkansas imminently if not dealt. Blocked from playing center due to Jonny Farmelo’s presence, he can handle all three outfield spots while slashing for impressive power and plate discipline from the left side. I went back and forth on Korbyn Dickerson in this spot, your mileage may vary, largely contingent on how highly you value Hancock.

Conclusion: Yes, with a bit of teeth-gnashing. It is against my strongest instincts to deal starters for relievers, or anything for relievers, really. But it’s what the M’s need, it drains the six-man rotation morass, and deals from areas of relative strength in Seattle’s system. If Dan Wilson has 6-7 excellent arms in the bullpen, it also removes a degree of the grousing as to who is used when. They’ll all be worth using!

Alternatively… Too many to name. Seattle is in a great spot in terms of buying for bullpen help, as they don’t need an ace closer to improve, just to displace the three or so least effective arms with competency. Every non-contending club has at least one or two arms who could be had for a small prospect return. I’ll note that if clearing salary is particularly important to San Diego as I expect it to be, adding in LHP Yuki Matsui would make sense in this deal, and likely allow Seattle to save on prospect cost in some capacity. Matsui is owed $13.5 million over the next two years in addition to the remainder of $5.75 million this year. He’s been able to out-pitch his peripherals as an extreme fly ball arm, but doesn’t make a ton of sense for San Diego as constructed.

3. Twin Aces on a Five Card Draw

Seattle Mariners acquire RHP Joe Ryan, 3B/2B Royce Lewis, &LHP Taylor Rogers
Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Luis Castillo, OF Lazaro Montes*, and cash

If you’ve read this far, you’ve spent a lot of time in the tasteful mundanity of most midseason moves. This is a step further out there. The Twins are “evaluating” their options at this deadline, with Ryan clearly the silver medal option for anyone opting out of the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes. I have seen no clear indication of the M’s going for Skubal, and while Ryan specifically has had no clear smoke, he’s part of a Twins roster that’s been evaluated for numerous fits with Seattle’s needs. I’ve put together a trade above which fits Minnesota’s seeming desire to continue contending in the Buxton era, save money at a premium, and find some impact bats. This deal allows for all three, with some questions.

Ryan is under contract for a little over $6 million this year, and while he has a mutual option for 2027, those are functionally non-existent and never taken, meaning he’ll instead default to his final year of arbitration. He’d be liable to make a sum well into eight figures, still less than he’d get on the open market but not a titanic discount. He’s been much like Castillo in his earlier years: an absolute stalwart with a fastball-heavy repertoire that’s not quite made him a Cy Young contender, but a playoff starter for any team in baseball. Ryan is in the midst of his best season as a pro, with a 3.38/3.42/4.00 ERA/FIP/DRA that’s put him at 2.5 fWAR thus far, on par with George Kirby, Jacob deGrom, and Drew Rasmussen in the 19-22 range by fWAR headed into Friday. He’s a fly ball pitcher who would be better served in Seattle than the bandbox of Target Field in Minnesota, even in summertime.

Ryan’s appeal is the allowance of consolidation of resources. Trading in two good arms for one great one is not always the right move, but for Seattle it is at this moment. While moving Castillo to a less-contending club is a tough move for the veteran, it’s liable to happen in most permutations of a move this year, and Minnesota is neither completely out of it in 2026 nor a longshot to be right in the mix for the AL Central in 2027. That’s the appeal of Castillo, even at a loftier price point, which Seattle might still need to pay down somewhat. While clearing Ryan, Rogers, and Royce allows for some money off the books, Minnesota is not a big spender and may prefer to add in Josh Bell or Victor Caratini to offset some costs.

What Lewis and Rogers add is more a fit for Seattle’s needs than they are for Minnesota’s. The Twins have Lewis off his normal 3B role at present, letting longtime top prospect Brooks Lee get his reps at third. Demoted at one point this year, Lewis is splitting time between the non-shortstop positions defensively, and has been an above-average hitter for his career with still-decent numbers against southpaws this year. Displacing Buddy Kennedy for Lewis is a plus at a minimum, and the former first overall pick can see if a change of scenery lets him find a 2024 Victor Robles-like rejuvenation. Rogers has had a poor season, but the southpaw seems to be a victim of a .351 BABIP more than entirely over the hill if his 5.45 ERA vs. 3.96 FIP have any merit. He’ll also clear another $2 million prorated for Minnesota this year.

*The inclusion of Montes here is conditional. It’s hard to imagine Minnesota eating most of Castillo’s salary. There could be a chance to include a third club like the Cubs who are less penny-pinching, but we’re already out on our skis a ways. Montes fits the bill for Minnesota, with their compact ballpark limiting the impact of his subpar range and allowing his prominent power to play up. The club that boasted the “Bomba Squad” not so long ago has been seeking sluggers like Montes for years, from Trevor Larnach to Alex Kiriloff to Matt Wallner to Max Kepler. I see Montes as a mitigation for Castillo’s salary here, which could also be something Minnesota wishes to move on from before the deadline themselves.

Conclusion: I’m interested, but it’s still a bit tricky. While I strongly support consolidating Seattle’s strengths here into an ace, especially if Detroit continues their resurgence, the prices for Ryan could skyrocket beyond a move like this. I wouldn’t expect a move like this, even though it might make for a real splash.

Alternatively… As a Mariners fan, there is something sinister in trade proposals for the beloved aces of losing franchises. Not every fanbase has something as potent as the relationship between Seattle and Félix Hernández, but I don’t wish the experience on anyone. Moreover, with the Red Sox surging, they too are likely out of the easy fit range for someone like Sonny Gray, and Kevin Gausman apparently is still sore from all the important games he’s lost against the M’s such that they are on his no-trade list. It’s Ryan or run another play.

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview, Friday 7/24, 5:40 CT

ICYMI, here’s today’s roster move.

Friday notes…

  • BACK-TO-BACK: The Cubs have lost back-to-back games only twice in their last 40 played, since a third straight loss, at home to the Athletics, on June 3. They fell twice at home to the Cardinals on July 3-4, then at Baltimore on July 9 and at Cincinnati the next day. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
  • WINNING ON THE ROAD: The Cubs are 27-23 on the road. They finished 42-39 last year, their first full season with a winning record since 2018, when they were 44-37. They were 15-12 in the 60-game 2020 season. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
  • DIVISION RIVALS: The Cubs are 13-13 vs. their Central Division opponents. The Pirates are 17-12 within the division; the Brewers, 19-10; and the Cardinals, 15-13. The Reds are 6-22. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
  • TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: The Cubs overcame a 4-1 deficit in Milwaukee with a five-run seventh and defeated the Brewers 6-5, increasing their NL Central lead to 7.5 games. It happened 10 years ago today, Sunday, July 24, 2016.

Cubs lineup:

The Pirates lineup was not available at posting time. Please check BCB social media for the Pirates lineup.

Matthew Boyd, LHP vs. Jared Jones, RHP

Matthew Boyd since returning from his knee injury: five starts, 2.57 ERA, 1.143 WHIP. He’s been really good and has thrown 90+ pitches in each of his last three starts, so shouldn’t be pitch limited tonight.

He has not faced the Pirates this year. Last year he had a 4.50 ERA in three starts covering 14 innings, which was two good outings and one pretty bad one. The bad one was in September when he was running out of gas. He should be better tonight.

Jared Jones was being talked about as a 1-2 along with Paul Skenes in the Pirates rotation two years ago, then he missed part of 2024 and all of 2025 with “internal brace” surgery, something different from Tommy John surgery. He’s made nine starts this year and started off kind of shaky, but over the last three: 1.20 ERA, 0.533 WHIP, 23 strikeouts and only three walks in 15 innings.

He appears to be a bit pitch-limited as he has maxed out at 81 this year and 75 over those last three starts. So, get to him early, if possible.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around PNC Park.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout. If you do go there to interact with Pirates fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

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Clay Holmes on Mets future, reveals not 'a ton' of progress on contract extension talks

In a news conference ahead of Friday's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Mets pitcher Clay Holmes addressed the uncertainty surrounding his immediate future with the ballclub.

With the MLB trade deadline set for 6 p.m. on Monday, Aug. 3, the Mets have already indicated that they are open for business, and Holmes is one of many players who could be on the move.

"There's a lot that can happen, a lot of different scenarios," the veteran hurler stated. "It does feel like the team is going to make some moves; what those are, we don't know."

Holmes, 33, has a player option following the 2026 season, and it was recently reported that the right-hander was open to inking an extension.

"I'm grateful to have an opportunity here with the Mets, and have been since I signed here," the pitcher said.

However, Holmes revealed today that the possibility of extending his time in Queens is still up in the air.

When asked if there had been any progress on a contract extension with the Mets, Holmes replied, "I don't think there's been a ton there. It's one of those situations where there's a few different scenarios the team can go, and it boils down to what the team thinks is best for the organization long-term."

Meanwhile, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns declined to comment when asked the same question during his regularly scheduled news conference ahead of the team's series opener with the Dodgers.

Holmes recently made his first rehab start since he was sidelined with a right fibula fracture sustained on a comebacker during his start against the Yankees on May 15.

"It's a unique scenario, the timing of this injury, the unforeseen circumstances with the team," lamented Holmes. "Sometimes it's easy to let your mind wander, there's a lot of things out there that you can't control which will have some impact on your future. As an athlete, especially me right now, I want to be pitching my best during these last two months, whether that be here [with the Mets] or somewhere else."

"You want to leave a place better than you found it. Hopefully things are better here when I leave, whenever that is," he concluded.

Yankees Mailbag: Biggest threats and playoff rosters

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 19: Sonny Gray #54 of the Boston Red Sox delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on July 19, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

BetweenthePinstripes asks:Which AL team would be the toughest opponent for the Yankees in the playoffs?

It’s well known how mediocre the Junior Circuit has looked this year, and while the Yankees are unfortunately playing down to that level themselves as well it at least means that there isn’t an overwhelmingly threatening matchup to look out for. That is, of course, depending on how much you’re buying into Boston’s sudden charge back into the picture. The Red Sox used a four-game sweep of the Yankees at the end of June as a launching pad to spring into a 15-game winning streak, claiming a slim lead for the final Wild Card spot and putting themselves within shouting distance of the Yankees and Rays.

Boston’s offense isn’t anywhere close to what was expected entering this year — Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony haven’t factored in at all and Jarren Duran has been outright bad, while Willson Contreras has been the big addition for the lineup and Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have done enough to keep them afloat while contributing on defense. The real strength of the team has been their pitching staff: offseason acquisition Ranger Suarez has been the ace the team needed with Garrett Crochet missing most of the year, Payton Tolle has taken a major leap in his first full season in the majors, and Sonny Gray continues to thrive in his post-Yankees career. Former Yankee Aroldis Chapman looms in the back of their ‘pen enjoying a renaissance season where he’s simply dominated, and former Yankee farmhand Garrett Whitlock rebounded to serve as a fantastic setup man beside him. Have the Yankees woken up a team that was expected to be competitive this year but just struggled out of the gate, or are they enjoying a hot stretch over the summer that they can’t sustain? The field certainly didn’t punish their sluggish first three months as Boston now sits with the second-best run differential in the AL, and there’s a very real possibility that they line up as the Yankees’ first postseason matchup whether that’s in the Wild Card Round or the ALDS.

Unfortunately for New York, their other threat also sits within their own division. The Rays may not be running away with the AL East, but they’ve held onto the top spot for a while now and have proven to be a thorn in the Yankees’ side. The core of their offense is a greater threat than Boston’s, led by the powerful bat of Junior Caminero and featuring plus performance from Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda with Chandler Simpson proving to be a nuisance every time the Yankees have faced Tampa as well. Their rotation is no slouch either, with Shane McClanahan back in the fold looking like he never missed a beat alongside Drew Rasmussen building off of his breakout 2025. Nick Martinez has stepped into the rotation and become a strong No. 3, though his expected stats tell a story of regression waiting to hit. I think Boston is the scarier threat to face in a short round like the Wild Card while Tampa would be more annoying in the ALDS, but either way they sit one and two on the board of teams to look out for.

As for the rest of the field, I just don’t see much competence coming from the Central or West this year. The West in particular is a mess, with no one capable of running away with a division begging to be taken. The Mariners have been major disappointments, the Rangers have been middle of the pack on both sides of the ball, and the Astros are fighting against rapids just trying to breach a .500 record. The Central has been better but not by much, with the White Sox surprisingly ahead but feeling like a team that would put the wild in Wild Card. Cleveland is always around but uninspiring, and Minnesota is technically in the mix but has felt like a team that knows they should sell for weeks. Things could get shaken up dramatically at the deadline, but of this bunch I only see Seattle having the pieces to put something truly crazy together, and they might just be better off waiting to promote their own top prospects rather than deal any of them.

ConorGallogly asks:We have Rodríguez, Beck, De los Santos, Cruz, Hanner on 40-man and in AAA, plus Castro just called up, and Lagrange, Reyzelman, and Cohen in AAA, but not on 40-man. Does any player listed, or any other current minor leaguer make our playoff roster this season? How many starts do we need outside of Schlittler, Cole, Fried, Rodón, Warren, & Weathers for the rest of the season? Can Rodríguez cover them effectively?

If the team stays healthy, then the most likely one of this group I can see making a playoff roster is Yovanny Cruz. He looked mighty impressive in his short stints in the majors, and his minor league numbers have been excellent enough to warrant another look whenever the team desires. They haven’t pulled that trigger often though, insisting on running out Camilo Doval and Jake Bird with regularity when at least one of them could easily get booted from the bullpen at this point. The Trade Deadline will likely bring with it another arm or two, and the rotation will be slimmed down to four come October meaning some of those starters will get used in relief as well so I don’t think the likes of Elmer Rodriguez or Brendan Beck have a shot this time around. Carlos Lagrange was a possibility to get fast-tracked for the bullpen, but his initial struggles combined with his shoulder injury will probably shut the door on that opportunity.

The most interesting name of the group is Bradley Hanner, a reliever picked up over the offseason and stashed away in the minors for depth purposes after pitching in the Twins and Guardians’ organizations without reaching the majors. Hanner’s been extremely effective in Triple-A for the RailRiders, pitching to a 2.30 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 43 innings, and with an opt-out in the contract looming the team chose to add him to the 40-man roster while sliding Aaron Judge over to the 60-day IL. That begs the question of what will happen to his roster spot once the Captain is healthy again, but if he manages to get a shot before then perhaps someone else will take the blow. I’d still rank Cruz as a likelier addition to the roster than Hanner based on him actually appearing with the team this year, but both are a bit of a long-shot currently.

Lidbit asks:Yankees third base situation is atrocious: DJ $15 million, McMahon $16 million, Rosario $2.5 million. Collectively well below MLB average offense and the defense? Well the Yankees have lowest third base fielding percentage in MLB! Not counting the other night’s McMahon muff! Aside from the Josh Donaldson fiasco, how does this rank among Cashman’s recent misadventures?

It’s up there as one of the worst-rostered positions we’ve seen the Yankees roll out throughout this competitive window, though I think that letting a concussed Anthony Rizzo provide next to nothing for as long as they did was a worse mishandling than what’s going on at the hot corner currently. However, I think it’s as bad as it is mainly because the faults of each player cascade into the other: relying on DJ LeMahieu in 2025 to be an everyday part of the lineup when he hadn’t shown those capabilities in years (to say nothing of extending his contract an additional year to spread out the luxury tax hit) was an obvious error that led Cashman to seeking a warm body that could at least field the position. That in turn led to overexposing Rosario when McMahon’s struggled at the plate in April and May, which let pitchers figure out how to deal with him while simultaneously hurting the team’s defense. If the LeMahieu aspect of this equation was wiped clean for this year and his contract was off the books a year earlier it looks a lot less messy and would probably give them the room to try and find a fix at this year’s deadline, but with as much money tied down as there is already other positions simply have to take priority.

Johnny1944 asks: Will Stan ever heal?

Allegedly, though I have no idea what he’ll do if he ever does make it back onto the field this season.

Padres look to bounce back in Miami after series finale loss to Braves

Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II (Photo by Cole Carter/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Miami Marlins (52-51) welcome the San Diego Padres (50-53) to South Beach this weekend. It is a crucial three-game set for both teams’ playoff hopes. Each club has struggled following the All-Star break. The loser of this series will kiss their postseason chances goodbye.

Thursday Results

The Padres fell short for a second consecutive day, as a late-game rally ended in a frustrating 6-5 defeat to the Atlanta Braves. The loss dropped them to 2-5 on their 10-game, three-city road trip.

The Friars began the scoring with a three-run rally off of Braves ace Chris Sale. A fielding error by left fielder Mauricio Dubón aided the offense, as it was followed by a bases-loaded walk to Fernando Tatis Jr. and a two-run single by Luis Renglio. But that lead was short-lived.

After Padres opener Kyle Hart pitched a scoreless first inning, Griffin Canning came into the contest as the bulk pitcher. His struggles continued with the first batter he faced. Michael Harris II homered on the second pitch of his at-bat. The Braves scored four more runs in the fourth inning, as Ozzie Albies hit a solo home run and Dominic Smith followed with a three-run blast. 

Atlanta closed out its scoring with Drake Baldwin hitting a solo home run off Matt Waldron in the seventh inning. The Friars came back with a two-run shot by Ty France. The bats tried to rally in the ninth inning, but to no avail.

Taking the mound: German Marquez (SD) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)

The Marlins waited until this morning to name their starting pitcher for this afternoon’s game. The club is trying to fill a void left by star pitcher Max Meyer, who recently went on the injured list with a neck strain.

The team has chosen right-hander Ryan Gusto (0-2, 4.70 ERA), who has worked out of the bullpen and been a spot starter this season. He has a deep pitching repertoire, as Gusto does not throw particularly hard. But the right-hander will use his four-seam, cutter, and breaking ball to strike out left-handed batters. The movement keeps them off-balance during their at-bats. 

The Marlins have struggled to begin the second half of the 2026 season, as the team is 1-9 in their last 10 games. At the All-Star break, the club held the final wild card position. But now, the Marlins find themselves two games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

German Marquez (4-2, 5.24 ERA) takes the ball and is determined to end the Padres’ recent slide. He has pitched better since coming off the IL. Marquez has become more effective by working on a pitch count that allows him to go through an opposing lineup once. 

The right-hander has averaged three-plus innings since returning to the starting rotation. But to be effective, Marquez must avoid contact, which is impossible with the lowest strikeout rate (13.8%) among all major league starters. 

The offense scored 21 runs in the four-game set against the Braves. The hope is the bats remain alive this weekend. It would be the perfect time for Miami native Manny Machado to put on a show for the home folks. He leads the Friars with 22 HRs and 59 RBIs. 

Today’s lineup

Ronald Acuña Jr. not back, Jorge Mateo gets rare start in Braves’ opener at Orioles

Jun 22, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Jorge Mateo (2) reacts after striking out during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

It would seem we’re going to have to wait at least one more day to see Ronald Acuña Jr.‘s return to the Braves.

While it was reported he could be back as soon as tonight, the team hasn’t yet announced his return from his rehab assignment and he’s not in the starting lineup the Braves released for Friday’s series opener at the Baltimore Orioles.

Instead, Atlanta is running back a very similar lineup to the one it used for Thursday afternoon’s series finale vs. San Diego. The top six in the order remain the same, although Drake Baldwin is DHing after catching that game.

At the bottom of the order, Eli White replaces Mike Yastrzemski in right field and will hit seventh, Joey Bart will catch and hit eighth and Jorge Mateo will make his first appearance since last Friday, giving Jim Jarvis a day off as Mateo hits ninth and plays shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim’s return also on the horizon.

It’s a chance for Mateo to play against his former team, having suited up for the O’s from 2o21-25.

This will be former Marlin Trevor Rogers’ 11th career start against the Braves. So a few of the relative veterans of the lineup in Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have faced him a decent amount. Albies is 8-for-25 (.320) with a double and three RBIs against Rogers, while Riley is 5-for-23 (.217) with three doubles, a homer and four RBIs.

One Braves hitter who has not had success against Rogers is Matt Olson. The slugger is 1-for-16 (.063) against the southpaw with a double, eight strikeouts and one walk. It’s not a huge surprise given the matchup but still a staggering number.

Mauricio Dubón (3-for-6, two doubles) and Michael Harris II (2-for-5, one double) have had success against Rogers in smaller sample sizes. Overall, the current Braves have hit .241 against Rogers with eight doubles, a homer, 10 RBIs, 24 strikeouts and seven walks.

The Orioles are giving left fielder Taylor Ward an off day in the field, moving Dylan Beavers into his spot in the field and leadoff spot in the lineup while Ward will hit fourth and DH. Tyler O’Neill, who typically hits cleanup for Baltimore, is out of the lineup.

In the lineup is Chadwick Tromp, who will hit ninth and catch. After he started the season in the Braves organization, it’s just his fourth game with Baltimore and he’s gone 2-for-8 with two singles, a run and an RBI.

Considering Braves starter Grant Holmes has made just one start against the Orioles, it makes sense that former Met Pete Alonso (3-for-5, 1 RBI) is the only member of the Baltimore roster with more than three career bats against him.

Jackson Holliday (3-for-3 with a homer and two RBIs) had a great game against Holmes last July in Baltimore’s 2-1 win. Those two account for the much of the reason why Baltimore’s current roster is a combined 7-for-15 (.467) with a 1.222 OPS against the right-hander.

First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards as the Braves look to keep the good vibes rolling.

Today in White Sox History: July 24

NEW YORK - 1956: Firstbaseman Bill "Moose" Skowron, of the New York Yankees, awaits the next pitch during a game in October, 1956 at Yankee Stadium in New York, New York.
On this day 70 years ago, the Moose got loose: Bill Skowron homered over the Comiskey Park roof. | (Photo by: Diamond Images/Getty Images)

1956
On the fourth at-bat of the game, and with the Yankees already leading, 1-0, Moose Skowron drove a Billy Pierce pitch over the roof at Comiskey Park. It was the 14th roof shot ever by a White Sox opponent and 15th overall.

The good news for the Good Guys is that it took the White Sox a while to get warmed up, but once they did they won in a rout, 11-5. Tied 4-4 at the seventh-inning stretch, Chicago struck for three in the seventh and four in the eighth. Larry Doby and Minnie Miñoso teamed up in the No. 3-4 slots in the batting order to go 5-for-7 with two homers, six runs and six RBIs.

Pierce overcame two solo homers in the first inning to go the distance and improve to 15-4 on the season.

On a trivial note, Yankees starter Don Larsen entered the game in the ninth inning as a pinch-hitter for second baseman Jerry Coleman, and singled. Three months later, Larsen would author the only perfect game in World Series history.


1960
In the first game of a doubleheader at New York, future Hall-of-Famer Nellie Fox banged out his 2,000th career hit. On the afternoon he’d have a pair in the 6-3 White Sox victory. The hit came in the first inning, on a single to left field off of Jim Coates.  

The Sox split the doubleheader for the day.


1968
White Sox relief pitcher Hoyt Wilhelm took a 2-1 loss in a doubleheader nightcap against Oakland, but in the doubleheader opener set the record for most appearances by a pitcher. The future Hall-of-Famer broke Cy Young’s record of 906 games. “Old Tilt” would appear in a staggering 1,070 games before he retired.

In Wilhelm’s six years with the White Sox, he won 41 games and saved 98 others, while producing some astonishingly low ERAs considering he threw a knuckleball. His highest ERA between 1963 and 1968 was 2.64 — every other season it was below 2.00! In 1968, pitching in 72 games at the age of 45, Wilhelm had a 1.73 ERA and 3.3 WAR.


2004
After a Paul Konerko sacrifice fly in the eighth tied the game, 6-6, Joe Crede stepped up with one out in the ninth and clubbed a sayonara home run out to left-center to win over Detroit, 7-6. After Aaron Rowand struck out to lead off the frame, Crede fell behind 0-2 and worked the count to full before ending the game with his 13th homer of the season.

The win put the White Sox back in first place, by a half-game. But, sadly, it was the last day that season the team would sit atop the division, eventually falling to third before recovering and ending the year at 83-79, nine games out.


2020
Because of the worldwide coronavirus pandemic, the regular season started four months later than normal. A 60-game season was ordered by commissioner Rob Manfred after the owners and players union could not agree on a longer schedule.  

There were also new, bizarre rules put in place, including doubleheaders consisting of seven-inning games and extra innings starting with a runner already on second base. Meanwhile, many people questioned the wisdom of sports being played while thousands were getting infected and many still dying.

The White Sox, hoping to build on three years of retooling the team and a terrific offseason, hosted the Minnesota Twins on this late Opening Day — and were beat up, 10-5, immediately putting a damper on things.


2022
After 22 unsuccessful votes by the BBWAA and Hall of Fame Veterans’ Committees, and many years of waiting and coming close, White Sox great Minnie Miñoso was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. The “Cuban Comet” was the first Latin player to excel in the Major Leagues and opened the door, much like Jackie Robinson did for Blacks, to the wealth of talent in Mexico and Central America. 

Minoso was a six-time All-Star representing the White Sox, was named the American League Rookie of the Year by The Sporting News in 1951, won two Gold Gloves with the White Sox and led the league at various times in triples, stolen bases and hit-by-pitches. He batted better than .300 seven times with the Sox, scored 100 or more runs four times, and drove in at least 100 runs four times. His combination of speed and power were unique for the time period.

He ranks among White Sox leaders all-time leaders in triples, at bats, walks, runs, RBIs, hit-by-pitches, hits, total bases, on-base percentage, doubles, extra base hits and OPS.

Meanwhile on the field, on this day …

White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease was masterful against Cleveland at Guaranteed Rate Field, going six scoreless innings on seven hits, striking out four in a 6-3 win. That marked his 11th consecutive start allowing one run or fewer, which tied the modern era record for pitchers.

It had only happened twice before: Bob Gibson of the Cardinals in 1968, and Jacob deGrom of the Mets in 2021.


2024
With a 10-2 loss at Texas, the White Sox lost their 10th straight — the first time in team history the club bore two losing streaks of at least 10 games in the same season.

It would get worse, as this losing streak would stretch from 10 games to a club-record 21 straight.

The 10-2 loss also dropped the White Sox to 27-77, 50 games worse than .500. To put that in perspective, the White Sox had finished a season at 50+ games worse than .500 in just three of their 124 years.

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, July 24

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The weekend has finally arrived! Let's get the night rolling by backing some guys to go yard!

These are my top looks to leave the yard, featuring Alec Burleson and Tyler Soderstrom in these MLB player props

Here are my favorite MLB pickshome run predictions for Friday, July 24.

  • UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Cardinals Alec Burleson+434
Athletics Tyler Soderstrom+362
Athletics Bryce Eldridge+392
💲Today's HR parlay+12038

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+434)

It is time to back the burly boy from St. Louis, Mr. Alec Burleson!

Entering Friday, the St. Louis Cardinals slugger carries an elite rating on Batters-Box while also covering 100% of Cincinnati Reds right-hander Rhett Lowder's pitch mix.

The big fella has been seeing the ball extremely well against right-handed pitching, posting a .308 BA, .343 wOBA, 45.5% hard hit rate, and 18.2% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances.

Lowder, meanwhile, has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters, especially on the road. Lefties are batting .350 against him with a .583 SLG and .444 wOBA, while producing a 41.2% hard hit rate and 68.6% elevation rate.

With Burleson being one of the hottest hitters in the Cardinals lineup over the last week, I love this spot for him to do damage against Lowder.

  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: CARD, CINR

Home run pick: Tyler Soderstrom (+362)

One of my all-time favorite pitchers to fade is Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews. Why? Well, he is always getting crushed. 

Over his last three starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA and 2.19 WHIP while allowing a 42.55% hard hit rate and 12.77% barrel rate. That is why I want to target one of the hottest bats in the Athletics lineup this evening.

Tyler Soderstrom stood out the most to me, as he is batting .346 with a .731 SLG and 1.164 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He also covers 99.2% of Matthews' pitch mix.

Matthews has struggled against left-handed hitters all season, with the last 60 he has faced posting a .438 xBA, .848 xSLG, and .399 xwOBA.

With how well Soderstrom has been seeing the ball and how poorly Matthews has been pitching, this is a great spot to back the Athletics slugger to go yard in Minnesota this evening.

  • Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBCSCA, MNNT

Home run pick: Bryce Eldridge (+392)

San Francisco Giants young slugger Bryce Eldridge finds himself in a prime spot against Los Angeles Angels right hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has struggled mightily this season. The Angels starter enters with an 8.49 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, while allowing nearly 50% hard contact and a 9.17% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Eldridge enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, along with 84.2% arsenal coverage against every pitch in Rodriguez's mix. He has also been seeing the ball extremely well against right-handed pitching over his last 30 plate appearances, posting a .500 SLG, .867 OPS, .381 wOBA, and .231 ISO while producing a 62.5% hard hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate.

Against his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, Rodriguez has allowed a 61.7% hard hit rate and 70.6% elevation rate, with hitters posting a .382 xBA, .643 xSLG, and .296 ISO.

Everything points toward a big opportunity for Eldridge, and I think he is in a great spot to collect extra bases this evening.

  • Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBCSBA, ABTV
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 86-302, +7.96 units

Today’s HR parlay

Cardinals Alec BurlesonBet Now
+12038
Athletics Tyler Soderstrom
Athletics Bryce Eldridge

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers game discussion: Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Shane Drohan

DENVER, COLORADO - JULY 18: Tomoyuki Sugano #11 of the Colorado Rockies pitches in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Coors Field on July 18, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Colorado Rockies (41-63) begin a three-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers (64-38) with some daytime baseball on a Friday afternoon. Brewers legends will take the field after the real game for a postgame alumni contest — an idea the Rockies should feel free to borrow.

This is the start of a quick road trip. After three games in Milwaukee, the Rockies will have Monday off before playing a rare two-game series against the Friars in San Diego. Another off-day follows Thursday. 

Colorado was off yesterday and could have used the break. The Rockies are 3-7 over their past 10 games and are coming off a disastrous loss to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. 

On paper, this is not an especially compelling matchup. The Brewers carry baseball’s second-best record, while the Rockies own the worst mark in the National League. 

Milwaukee is a deep team that pitches brilliantly and applies consistent offensive pressure. The Brewers rank first in starting-pitcher ERA, first in starter strikeouts per nine innings and second in starter WHIP. Their offense ranks fourth in on-base percentage and fifth in runs scored. They lead the NL Central by seven games and have scored 133 more runs than they have allowed. 

The Rockies have a much-improved offense of their own, ranking fourth in batting average, fifth in OPS and eighth in runs scored. However, their rotation ranks 30th in ERA, WHIP and hits allowed per nine innings. The bullpen has not been much stronger, and the defense continues to struggle. 

The intrigue comes from within the Rockies themselves. 

With the trade deadline approaching, several players could be appearing in a Colorado uniform for the final time. The Rockies have said they intend to be active and have already completed an intra-division trade. We do not know exactly who will be moved, but today’s starter, Tomoyuki Sugano (菅野 智之), has reportedly generated interest

Sugano has been more than serviceable during his time in Colorado and will look for his 10th victory this afternoon. The veteran right-hander enters at 9-4 with a 4.76 ERA. 

That ERA is considerably better than his 7.00 xERA, which ranks in the first percentile. Sugano’s actual results have consistently outpaced his underlying metrics, just as they did with Baltimore in 2025. 

His success is not built on premium velocity or exceptional movement. Nearly every pitch in Sugano’s seven-pitch mix moves less than the typical offering of its type. 

Sugano has survived by distributing his pitches evenly and avoiding predictable patterns. He has also limited damage in the most perilous situations. Opponents have slugged .575 against him with the bases empty but only .388 with runners in scoring position.  

That helps explain why his 4.76 ERA remains so far below his 7.00 xERA. 

Taking the ball opposite Sugano will be 27-year-old rookie Shane Drohan. The left-hander has appeared in 20 games and will make his 11th start after working primarily out of the bullpen during March and April. 

Drohan enters with a 5-3 record, a 3.20 ERA and 76 strikeouts across 76 innings. He generates plenty of chase, rarely gives away free bases and limits hard contact. His chase rate ranks in the 88th percentile, his walk rate in the 79th percentile and his average exit velocity allowed in the 65th percentile. 

His four-seamer, sinker and slider form the foundation of the arsenal. 

Both fastballs sit around 95 mph. His four-seamer stays up and carries roughly 3.5 inches more arm-side run than the typical left-handed four-seamer. The sinker arrives at nearly the same velocity and moves even farther arm-side. 

The mid-80s slider gives him a tighter breaking pitch off those two fastballs and has been one of his more effective offerings. Drohan also mixes in a slower curveball and a cutter around 90 mph, while using his changeup sparingly. 

The sinker presents the clearer opportunity for Colorado. Hitters have batted .332 and slugged .618 against it, while the four-seamer and slider have been much harder to square up.

Hunter Goodman continues to pace the Rockies on Fridays, with five home runs and a .985 OPS in 16 Friday games. Jake McCarthy follows with three homers and a .973 OPS. 

Ezequiel Tovar has endured a horrendous season but has also produced on Fridays. Tovar has three home runs and a .941 OPS in 16 Friday games. 

Enjoy a rare daytime Friday tilt and a chance to watch a few Rockies who may be playing their final games in purple.

The details…

First Pitch: 2:10 pm MDT

TV: Rockies.TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM; KNRV 1150 (Spanish)

BrewersSB Nation site: Brew Crew Ball

Lineups:


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Three Players to Avoid at the Trade Deadline

There are often players who change teams and don’t put together the same results. Think of Ryan Helsley and Cedric Mullins for the Mets last season. It can happen and sometimes it’s easy to see.

Once again, the Phillies will be buyers at the trade deadline, looking to bolster their club for a trip into October and hopefully longer.

There are just some players that you’re better off not paying the price for.

AJ Minter- New York MetsLHP

AJ Minter makes a lot of sense for the Phillies on the surface, he carries a 1.71 ERA over 21 innings. The Phillies could use a left handed reliever with how Jose Alvarado, Tanner Banks, or Kyle Backhus has pitched for them. Minter has pitched in plenty of big games with the Atlanta Braves, and has a ring on his finger from the 2021 season.

But the 32-year-old left-hander is a regression risk. He has come back from his lat tear throwing over a tick slower and has had to change his pitch mix because of it. He’s leaned even more on his cutter, yet is still getting barreled often along with the lowest strikeout rate of his career.

He has pitched very well for the Mets because of a 2.4% walk rate and a very high strand rate. Could it work? It’s possible but it is hard to imagine either sustaining.

In four of Minter’s previous five seasons, he possessed a walk rate over 8%, with the exception being 2022, without question the best season of his career. There might be some walk regression coming, given that he cannot rely on throwing the fastball as much in the zone and the assumption that there is at least some command regression.

If he is already dealing with batted ball issues and strikeout issues, it is going to be hard to assume he can trade some walks. Minter just looks like a declining reliever that pitches worse moving forward.

Heliot Ramos- SF Giants Outfielder

Over the last three seasons, Heliot Ramos has a 115 OPS+ and has three additional seasons under club control at just 26 years old. It can be enticing but given his price, limitations, and potential regression, it might be best to avoid him.

Yes, the Phillies could really use a right handed bat this run and Ramos would be the de facto cleanup hitter. A lot of that says more about the current state of the Phillies than Ramos but there are other limitations.

As a hitter, Ramos’ numbers against right-handed pitching are bordering on a platoon risk already. He carries a .718 OPS against righties this season despite an outlier season against sliders and carries significant approach concerns. He has a chase rate of 37.2%, a high strikeout rate, and is allergic to walks. Sounds familiar?

While it is unfair to characterize him as a platoon player right now, the results are enough to justify him in the lineup, he is a slight slip away from being a short-side platoon corner outfielder and giving up premium prospect capital is just not worth it.

This is all forgetting that Ramos is limited as a player; he is not a good defensive left fielder on a team that already struggles to catch the ball. It would force Brandon Marsh to slide to right field, which is probably not what you want defensively, even if it could work fine.

There are also the longer-term team-building concerns that come with a trade like this. Trea Turner is no longer a shortstop, and may not even be an infielder anymore. Are they forcing him to stay in the infield with a move like this? Trading Brandon Marsh to make Turner work in the outfield? Maybe they could, it just feels like a lot for a player that might never have a three-win season.

Foster Griffin- Washington Nationals LHP

How we view starting pitchers with as much information as we do is tricky. I don’t think anyone views Foster Griffin as a top-of-the-rotation breakout after pitching three seasons in Japan. It would also be unfair to label Griffin as someone who actually stinks.

The cutter is a really good pitch for him, limiting hard contact and it gets enough whiffs. His sweeper and changeup are good pitches and the fastball isn’t getting crushed.

It is just that he is still at probably the highest ceiling he can get to, Griffin has pitched to a 2.68 ERA and made the All-Star Game for a Nationals organization that already looks like one of the sharpest in the sport. He has a very good strand rate, that could regress moving forward. He is also susceptible to pulled flyballs and home runs because he does not throw overwhelming stuff.

It is just hard to see him not regressing to the mean. Stuff has gone great for him over his first 20 starts of 2026, if he starts regressing to more like a high 3s, low 4s ERA pitcher, which is probably closer to who he is, that probably means really bad results moving forward.

Given the other rental starting pitcher options like Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, or even Robbie Ray, it just might be best to avoid Griffin.

How to watch tonight’s Yankees vs. Phillies game for free on Apple TV

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An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows betmgm-promo-code, Image 2 shows A baseball player in a red helmet and white Phillies uniform runs on the field

The Yankees are kicking off a 10-game road trip with a weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Since the All-Star Break came to an end, the Yankees have dealt with inclement weather postponing games, leading to two doubleheaders in four days. In the most recent doubleheader on Wednesday, they fell to the Pirates in 10 innings in the first fame, but won the second 2-0.

The highlight was the return of pitcher Max Fried, who, after two months on the IL, started the second game.

The Phillies came back from the All-Star Break to two series against National League rivals, first the Mets and then the Dodgers. In both series, they dropped two games, winning just one in each.

Yankees vs. Phillies: what to know
  • When: July 24, 6:45 p.m. ET
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park (Flushing, New York)
  • Channel: Streaming exclusive
  • Streaming: Apple TV (try it free)

Tonight’s Friday Night Baseball is exclusively streaming on Apple TV, but fear not: It’s easy to subscribe and tune in — and completely free, if you’re a new user.

Yankees vs. Phillies start time today (July 24)

The Yankees vs. Phillies game today, July 24, is scheduled to begin at 6:45 p.m. ET.

How to watch Yankees vs. Phillies for free

Tonight’s Yankees vs. Phillies game is airing exclusively on Apple TV‘s Friday Night Baseball, so you’ll need a subscription to watch the game.

Apple TV offers a seven-day free trial for users, so you’ll be able to watch two weeks of doubleheaders before the $12.99/month payments kick in.

TRY APPLE TV FOR FREE

Amazon Prime members can also subscribe to Apple TV directly through Prime Video. It costs the same monthly price and also includes a seven-day free trial, but allows you to stream Apple’s content inside the Prime Video app.

Yankees vs. Phillies starting pitchers

Cam Schlittler (9-6, 2.20 ERA) will start for the Yankees; Jesús Luzardo (9-4, 3.43 ERA) will be on the mound for the Phillies.

Apple TV Friday Night Baseball 2026 schedule

Friday Night Baseball, Apple TV’s weekly doubleheaders, are returning for a fifth season. The schedule through the end of August has been released.

July 24

  • New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, 7 p.m. ET

Friday, July 31

  • Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, 8 p.m. ET
  • San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, 9:30 p.m. ET

Friday, August 7

  • Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, 8 p.m. ET
  • Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, 9:30 p.m. ET

Friday, August 14

  • St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, 2 p.m. ET
  • New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, 7 p.m. ET

Friday, August 21

  • Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, 7 p.m. ET
  • Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, 8 p.m. ET

Friday, August 28

  • Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, 8 p.m. ET
  • Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, 7 p.m. ET
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Why Trust Post Wanted by the New York Post

This article was written by Angela Tricarico, Commerce Streaming Reporter for Post Wanted Shopping, Page Six, and Decider.com. Angela keeps readers up to date with cord-cutter-friendly deals, and information on how to watch your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and movies on every streaming service. Not only does Angela test and compare the streaming services she writes about to ensure readers are getting the best prices, but she’s also a superfan specializing in the intersection of shopping, tech, sports, and pop culture. When she’s not writing about (or watching) TV, movies, and sports, she’s also keeping up on the underrated perfume dupes at Bath & Body Works and testing headphones. Prior to joining Decider and The New York Post in 2023, she wrote about streaming and consumer tech at Insider Reviews.


Tarik Skubal says his preference is to finish season with Tigers and win World Series

DETROIT — Tarik Skubal said his preference is to finish the season with the Detroit Tigers and compete for a championship, though knows his next start could be his last with the team.

“I think we have a chance to win World Series,” Skubal said. “I’ve said that since spring training. That’s never changed. That belief in this team has never changed throughout the season. Obviously we put ourselves in a tough situation, but I think we’ve come out of that situation playing really good baseball.

“Going into spring training and the whole offseason, I’ve never been more motivated to try and win a World Series for this city, the team that drafted me and helped develop me. That’s always been the goal, and that will never change unless I’m told I’m on a different team.”

The Tigers have until Aug. 3 to decide whether to keep Skubal, who can become a free agent after the World Series, or to deal the two-time Cy Young Award winner in a blockbuster trade to perhaps bolster their future with players and prospects.

Skubal (6-5. 2.83 ERA) is scheduled to pitch against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park and acknowledged it might be his last start for the Tigers.

“That might be the reality,” he said. “But also five days later, there’s another one at home.”

The 29-year-old righty had surgery on May 6 to remove a loose body from his pitching elbow and returned to pitch on June 13.

“The way the surgery went is exactly how it was supposed to go,” Skubal said. “I don’t know if remarkable is the word I would use.”

Detroit was 22-38 at the start of June and has rallied well enough to be in the playoff picture as questions swirl about what the franchise will do with Skubal.

“There’s a lot of intrigue around him and the reason is, he’s really good,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said.

Showdown: Mariners at Rangers Series Preview

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JULY 21: Wyatt Langford #36 of the Texas Rangers congratulates Brandon Nimmo #24 on his two run home run during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Globe Life Field on July 21, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) | Getty Images

After a backbreaking loss to the Reds on Wednesday, the Mariners head into this huge series against the Rangers still searching for answers to their woes. The trade deadline is quickly approaching and this series in Texas along with next week’s series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers will have a lot of bearing on how the team approaches upgrading the roster. There are clear areas of need on the roster, and the team is firmly in win-now territory, but dropping well below .500 during this road trip should force the team to ask some really tough questions.

GameTimeMariners StarterRangers StarterMariners Win%Rangers Win%
Game 1Friday, July 24 | 5:05 pmRHP Bryce MillerLHP MacKenzie Gore47.3%52.7%
Game 2Saturday, July 25 | 4:15 pmRHP Bryan WooRHP Nathan Eovaldi50.9%49.1%
Game 3Sunday, July 26 | 11:35 amRHP Logan GilbertRHP Jacob deGrom47.1%52.9%
Game 4Monday, July 27 | 11:35 amRHP George KirbyRHP Kumar Rocker52.8%47.2%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
OverviewMarinersRangersEdge
Batting (wRC+)99 (9th in AL)104 (3rd in AL)Rangers
Fielding (FRV)-26 (14th)-9 (11th)Rangers
Starting Pitching (FIP-)88 (2nd)98 (8th)Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)92 (5th)99 (9th)Mariners

For their part, the Rangers aren’t exactly running away with the AL West right now despite the Mariners’ struggles. Texas lost its series to the White Sox earlier this week and maintains a slim half game lead over Seattle in the division. More importantly, the Rangers lead the season series 4-2; anything more than a split in this series would guarantee they hold the tiebreaker if the division race comes down to the wire in September.

The offensive woes that plagued this roster last year haven’t really improved; they’re 22nd in runs scored this year, same as they were last season. The big difference is that their pitching staff isn’t leading the majors in run prevention, sliding down to 14th thanks to a shakier starting rotation and a poorer bullpen. They finished last year at .500 and they’re sitting at that exact record this season. Nothing has really changed except for the league context around them.

PlayerPositionBatsPAK%BB%ISOwRC+
Joc PedersonDHL30523.0%11.8%0.244130
Wyatt LangfordLFR21621.3%6.0%0.228133
Josh Jung3BR39617.9%8.3%0.147127
Brandon NimmoRFL40921.5%7.8%0.163115
Jake Burger1BR39826.4%7.5%0.182100
Ezequiel DuranSSR34924.1%7.4%0.167111
Evan CarterCFL27923.7%12.2%0.14985
Nicky Lopez2BL14614.4%2.7%0.045101
Elias DíazCR10819.4%1.9%0.18388

The Rangers have gotten almost nothing out of Corey Seager this year; he’s only played in 51 games, has an 86 wRC+, and is currently on the IL with a recurring back issue. Luckily, Wyatt Langford has stepped up to lead the lineup, though he’s dealt with his own injury issues this year too. The young outfielder is displaying a lot more power even though his contact quality has taken a bit of a step back this year. The Rangers are also enjoying bounce back seasons from Josh Jung and Joc Pederson. The former is finally healthy and has significantly improved his plate discipline and the latter is simply back to crushing right-handed pitching like he has throughout his career. 

The back half of the lineup is pretty messy. Ezequiel Duran is doing his best to cover for Seager’s absence and Nicky Lopez and Elias Díaz have been pressed into full-time roles thanks to a number of other injuries. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
MacKenzie Gore110.225.7%8.8%11.0%37.0%4.803.82
Bryce Miller63.129.5%4.1%12.7%39.5%2.273.23
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam48.1%34.6%95.495105950.307
Sinker1.0%18.2%95.21021121500.394
Cutter11.6%0.0%89.994112680.375
Changeup13.9%0.0%86.793115500.172
Curveball25.3%6.2%81.810898900.316
Slider0.1%40.9%85.799741260.290

From a previous series preview:

MacKenzie Gore was the Rangers’ big offseason acquisition in January. After being included in the blockbuster Juan Soto trade (the first one from Washington to San Diego), Gore has established himself as a solid frontline starter over the last few years. His secondary weapons are all fantastic — he’s the only pitcher in baseball to feature four pitches with whiff rates north of 35% — but he’s often let down by an inconsistent fastball. When he’s locating his heater well, it can give opposing batters fits. But too often — and particularly during the second half of the season when he’s worn down significantly — his locations will leak into the middle of the zone and batters will punish the pitch.

Gore was pretty solid through the first three months of the season, running a 4.05 ERA and a 3.43 FIP through the end of June. July hasn’t been kind to him, however — he’s allowed 18 runs in 19.2 innings this month — and it looks like he’s about to stumble through another second-half slide like he has every season before this. In his two starts against the Mariners this year, he held them scoreless at home in five innings and then gave up five runs in five innings in Seattle the next time around.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Nathan Eovaldi115.125.3%5.8%20.4%49.8%4.214.35
Bryan Woo110.124.2%4.9%8.8%38.1%4.163.22
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam12.9%13.6%94.6901001000.424
Sinker17.6%0.1%93.5101641710.332
Cutter13.2%24.4%90.595120950.366
Splitter34.0%39.7%88.595100910.274
Curveball22.3%22.2%76.4101126810.233

From a previous series preview:

Nathan Eovaldi has been forced to figure out how to do more with less (fastball velocity). Last year, he dropped the usage of his four-seam fastball by nearly 15 points, added a sinker to his repertoire, and increased the usage of his cutter and curveball. The result was a pitch mix that was a lot less predictable and a lot less dependent on his deteriorating velocity. Unfortunately, elbow and shoulder injuries derailed the success he was seeing with his new approach, and he spent most of the second half of the season on the shelf.

Eovaldi has dramatically shifted away from his fastball this year, dropping its usage to just 13%. He’s now throwing his splitter and curveball more than half the time, though that shift in pitch mix hasn’t exactly resulted in great topline results. He’s been pretty inconsistent throughout the year despite leaning on his two big swing-and-miss pitches. Previously against the Mariners, he allowed two runs in six innings in Arlington and then four runs in five innings back in Seattle. 

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Jacob deGrom105.130.2%5.7%13.3%35.2%3.763.33
Logan Gilbert12027.3%5.3%10.9%35.8%3.383.33
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam40.7%43.1%97.2107118820.354
Sinker4.4%0.1%96.2
Changeup3.1%20.7%89.8108143720.222
Curveball3.8%8.1%80.71041571470.194
Slider48.0%28.0%91.11121201010.253

From a previous series preview:

Last year, Jacob deGrom made 30 starts for the first time since 2019 and crossed the 150 IP threshold for just the fifth time in his career. That health was the result of a conscious effort to pitch with a little less intensity. His fastball velocity was down about a tick from where it was at his peak, though it still averaged 97.5 mph. From a results standpoint, he ran his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 and the highest FIP of his career. Even in his diminished form, he was still one of the better pitchers in baseball, and as they say, the best ability is availability.

deGrom has continued to pitch excellently in his age-38 season, and more importantly, he’s stayed mostly healthy. In his two previous starts against the Mariners, he’s allowed a single run across nine innings.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Kumar Rocker9620.9%8.8%11.5%44.6%4.134.16
George Kirby11621.8%5.2%9.2%47.0%3.573.24
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam6.5%15.6%94.482111980.346
Sinker42.1%21.4%94.3100661210.399
Cutter13.4%16.1%90.38394950.409
Changeup0.0%8.9%88.772
Slider38.0%38.0%83.2941231110.209

Kumar Rocker has taken a big step forward this year, not because he’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio in any meaningful way, but simply because he isn’t allowing as much hard contact. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is essentially unchanged from where it’s been during his first two seasons in the big leagues, but his hard hit and barrel rates allowed have dropped significantly. The biggest change in his profile is a greater emphasis on his death ball slider; he’s throwing it 38% of the time, is running a 41% whiff rate with it, and opposing batters have produced a .211 wOBA against it. His other pitches don’t stand out in any meaningful way, so it really seems like his improvement stems from leaning on his best pitch a lot more often.


The Big Picture:

TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Rangers51-510.500-30W-L-L-W-L
Mariners51-520.4950.5+17W-W-W-L-L
Astros50-540.4812.0-45L-L-W-W-W
Athletics43-590.4228.0-122W-L-W-L-L
Angels41-620.39810.5-58L-W-W-W-L
TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Yankees57-450.559+4.5+88L-W-W-L-W
Guardians54-500.519+0.5-6L-W-W-L-L
Red Sox52-490.515+45W-W-W-W-L
Mariners51-520.4952.0+17W-W-W-L-L
Twins51-530.4902.5-30L-L-L-W-W

The Astros bounced back from being swept last weekend by sweeping the Marlins this week; they’ll head to Chicago to face the White Sox this weekend. We’re fans of the Athletics this weekend as they take on the Twins in Minnesota. The Red Sox finally had their win streak snapped at 15 games on Wednesday, but they’ve opened up a two-game lead in the Wild Card race. Boston hosts the Blue Jays this weekend.

The history of MVPs on losing teams

A strange thing is happening in the American League.

Despite capturing the All-Star Game, the American League has struggled this year compared to its National League brethren. For example, nine National League teams enter the day with winning records compared to just six American League clubs. Four of the top five winning percentages belong to N.L. teams while three of the five worst winning percentages belong to A.L. teams, the Kansas City Royals among them.

In the National League, there is a clear front-runner for the Most Valuable Player award, that being one of the greatest ballplayers to ever live, certainly the apex of the sport today: Shohei Ohtani.

The downturn in American League records, coupled with the unfortunate injury and long absence of the league’s biggest star, Aaron Judge, means that the race for MVP is far more volatile than usual. While this is not, and should not, be the sole indicator of the award, the top three American League players in bWAR are Bobby Witt Jr. (4.9), Kevin McGonigle (4.8), and Yordan Alvarez (4.7).

What’s one thing shared by Witt, McGonigle, and Alvarez?

Each of their teams has a losing record.

Bob, of course, plays for the Royals, who have, to put it mildly, struggled in 2026. At the time of this writing, after winning two straight against the Giants, the Royals are now 42-60, a smooth dozen games behind the White Sox and Guardians in the Central while 10.5 out of the final Wild Card spot.

McGonigle, a rookie for the Tigers, has been a highlight of a down year in the Motor City. After yesterday’s 11-2 clobbering at the hands of the Cubs, Detroit is 47-54, ahead of only the Royals in the Central while five back of the last playoff spot.

Alvarez’s Houston Astros are in the best shape of the trio. Having won two in a row, and despite still being five games below .500, the Astros are only three games back of the Rangers in the West while four back of Boston in the Wild Card race.

According to odds over at ESPN from yesterday, before Bob’s placement on the Injured List, Alvarez was the favorite to win the AL MVP with Witt coming in third behind Tampa’s Junior Caminero (4.1 bWAR). McGonigle didn’t crack this particular Top 10, but his teammate, catcher Dillon Dingler (3.7 bWAR), did.

That means that three of the top ten listed, including two of the top three, the frontrunner among them, play for teams with losing records.

Major League Baseball hands out the MVP to players from teams with losing records more than any other professional league in North America—MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL.

While Bobby Witt Jr.’s injury may set him back in joining this, um, select group, Yordan Alvarez has a real shot at it. Here are the fifteen others he’d be joining with notes on four others.

Al Rollins, Chicago Black Hawks, 1953-54

We begin with perhaps the most perplexing instance. It’s so weird because a) a goalie won the Hart trophy, which is always strange, and b) a goalie won the Hart trophy as his team (note that “Black” and “Hawks” are two different words, so this is some time ago) finished 12-51-7, good for 31 points. The Black Hawks finished sixth in the NHL that year.

Of course, there were only six teams in the NHL that year. The fifth-place team, the New York Rangers, finished with more than twice as many points as the Black Hawks earned. And yet, Chicago’s goalie, who himself finished 12-47-7, took home the MVP.

Bob Pettit, St. Louis Hawks, 1955-56

Another Hawk, this time in basketball and from St. Louis. Pettit led the league in scoring with 25.7 points per game as St. Louis finished 33-39 in their first year in Missouri after moving from Milwaukee, this all under legendary coach Red Holzman, who, until this year, was the most recent coach to lead the Knicks to a championship.

Despite the losing record, the Hawks reached the postseason, even winning a round over the Minneapolis Lakers before falling to the Fort Wayne Pistons in the conference finals.

Two years later, the Hawks won it all. Pettit followed that up in 1958-59 with his second MVP. In 1971, he was inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Ernie Banks, Chicago Cubs, 1958

Lemme tell you something: the fifties loved it some losing MVPs. Banks became the first baseball player to achieve the feat as the Cubs finished 72-82, 20 games back of the first-place Milwaukee Braves. Mr. Cub, though, certainly delivered, as he posted 9.3 bWAR, taking home 2/3 of the Triple Crown with a league-leading 47 homers and 129 RBIs. He slashed .313/.366/.614.

Andy Bathgate, New York Rangers, 1958-59

Our second, and penultimate, hockey entry, Bathgate put up 88 points (40 goals, 48 assists) on his way to the Hart trophy for a Rangers team that ended the season 26-32-12, fifth in the six-team NHL. For some reason, voters named him the MVP over two players on the first-place, eventual champion Montreal Canadiens: Jean Béliveau finished third in voting after posting 91 points (45, 46) and his teammate, Dickie Moore, finished fifth after collecting 96 points (41, 55), which led the league.

Ernie Banks, Chicago Cubs, 1959

Evidently, Banks loved baseball so much, he said, “Let’s play two!” He loved winning the MVP for a bad team so much he immediately did it again in 1959: 10.2 bWAR, 45 home runs, 143 RBIs, .304/.374/.596.

Cubs final record: 74-80-1.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Los Angeles Lakers, 1975-76

Big time jump as no North American professional athlete won the MVP as part of a losing team during all of the sixties and the first half of the seventies. Abdul-Jabbar ended up being the only one to achieve the feat in the seventies, doing so at the midway point for a Lakers team that finished just under .500, 40-42.

This was Abdul-Jabbar’s fourth MVP trophy, and it just so happened to occur during his first year with the Lakers. Los Angeles finished fourth in the Pacific, two games back of the Suns for a playoff spot.

That season, Abdul-Jabbar led the NBA in total rebounds per game (16.9) and blocks per game (4.1) while averaging 27.7 and 5 assists. He’d again win the MVP the following year, then once more in 1979-1980.

The 1975-76 season is the only time Abdul-Jabbar missed the playoffs in his career.

Andre Dawson, Chicago Cubs, 1987

For those keeping track, this was the third time a baseball player won the MVP while part of a losing team, and all of them were Cubs. Gee, I wonder if any baseball team will top that.

Andre “The Hawk” Dawson—another Hawk!—posted only 4.0 bWAR in 1987, which tied for 18th among NL batters, but he did lead the league in home runs with 49 and RBIs with 137, both of which were career highs for the Hall of Famer. He slashed .287/.328/.568. The Cubs finished 76-85, last in the National League East.

Mario Lemieux, Pittsburgh Penguins, 1987-88

Just 22, Mario Lemieux paced the National Hockey League in points in 1987-88 with 168, including a league-leading 70 goals and a staggering 98 assists. Lemieux posted even better numbers the following season, but came in second in voting for the Hart behind some guy named Wayne Gretzky.

Serious question: would you rather have a healthy Lemieux or Gretzky at his peak? I’m not so sure there’s an easy answer. Sure, one’s nicknamed “The Great One,” but if Lemieux didn’t miss so much time, it might be No. 66, not No. 99, retired across the NHL.

The Penguins finished 36-35-9, which is under .500 in hockey terms. Three years later, they lifted Lord Stanley’s Cup for the first time ever.

Cal Ripken Jr., Baltimore Orioles, 1991

To this day, Ripken’s Iron Man streak overshadows how good of a ballplayer he was. Sure, he wouldn’t have started so many games in a row if he were a bum. But fans today forget that he posted nearly 100 bWAR while winning two Most Valuable Player awards, one when he was 22 in 1983, and this one, when he was 30.

For an awful Orioles team, one that finished 67-95, 24 games back of Toronto, Ripken, pardon the pun, ripped. He posted a career-high 11.5 bWAR while setting other career highs in home runs (34), RBIs (114), on-base percentage (.374), total bases (368, which led the league), and OPS+ (162). He also earned his first Gold Glove.

Alex Rodriguez, Texas Rangers, 2003

Another bit of a time-jump before Alex Rodriguez joins the club. A-Rod spent three years with the Rangers, who posted losing seasons all three years, with 2001 being the high mark with 73 wins.

In 2003, his last season not as a Yankee, Rodriguez won the first of three MVP awards. Rodriguez led the AL in bWAR (8.4), runs (124), home runs (47), and slugging percentage (.600) while capturing his second straight Gold Glove.

Oddly, 2003 looks like Rodriguez’s worst statistical season in Texas. I mean, dig it:

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 2016

The Angels finished 74-88 when Mike Trout won his second MVP. Trout led the league in bWAR (10.4), runs (123), walks (116), on-base percentage (.441), and OPS+ (173).

As you’re about to see, this sort of thing is about to become a trend in Anaheim.

Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins, 2017

Stanton had a season for the ages in his last year with the Marlins. He just missed 60 home runs on the year, still leading the Majors with 59. He added 132 RBIs, scored 123 runs, and slugged .631 for a Marlins team that finished 77-85, second in the National League East, but a full 10 games back of the final Wild Card.

The following offseason, Stanton forced his way out of Florida, choosing the Yankees as his next team. Injuries have hampered him during his time in the Bronx, though he did capture the ALCS MVP in 2024. He could very well become the first non-steroid tainted member of the 500-homer club to not make the Hall of Fame, but I doubt he gets there.

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 2019

Trout again. He won the MVP this time despite finishing behind others in bWAR, such as Houston’s Alex Bregman and Oakland’s Marcus Semien.

This was Trout’s third and, in all likelihood, final Most Valuable Player award. He has never won a postseason game.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels, 2021

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels, 2023

Grouping these last two together as it’s the same dude with the same team. Man, Arte Moreno is a bad owner. Ten times has a player won the MVP in baseball while playing for a team with a losing record, and four of those have happened in the past decade with the Angels.

While Trout remains, Ohtani bolted in free agency for the Dodgers, where he’s enjoyed enormous success, individually and, more importantly, as a member of the team.

Before that, though, Ohtani languished with the Angels. The two-way star won his first MVP in 2021 as the Angels finished 77-85. At the plate, Ohtani scored 103 runs while smoking 46 home runs and driving in 100 RBIs. He slashed .257/.372/.592. On the mound, Ohtani started 23 games, going 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, and 3.52 FIP. In total, he posted 9.0 bWAR—4.9 at the plate and 4.1 on the mound.

Two years later, as the Angels finished 73-89, Ohtani posted even better numbers at the plate as he slashed .304/.412/.654 with 44 homers and 95 RBIs. Pitching, he went 10-5 over 132 innings with 167 strikeouts, a 3.14 ERA and a 4.00 FIP.

Final Note

As you probably noticed, no NFL player has ever won the MVP while playing for a losing team. Since the AP started voting on the MVP in 1957, the closest a player has come to this is Barry Sanders in 1997, when the Lions finished 9-7.

From 1938 to 1946, the MVP equivalent was called the Joe F. Carr Trophy. Twice did a player win that hardware while playing for a team that finished 5-5-1. Cleveland Rams halfback Parker Hall did so in 1939 followed by Pittsburgh Steelers halfback Bill Dudley in 1946.

Finally, as far as I can tell, only one Major League Baseball player has won the MVP for a team that finished exactly .500—Robin Yount for the 1989 Milwaukee Brewers.