Category: Baseball

Fall is here, the White Sox sit atop the AL Central, and the scent of a postseason run — albeit likely a very short one — is wafting through the air. Although Chicago fans have been looking forward to a competent team since before Pope Leo was inaugurated, one of the Sox’s latest roster moves highlights several more mistakes made along the way.

On September 1, Tommy Pham officially returned after two years of accumulating a reputation for picking fights and signing with five teams in three years. Pham’s signing brings a twist no one saw coming: He’s now the starting right fielder for a team headed to the playoffs.

If the slow, sarcastic handclap hasn’t begun yet, feel free to start it now. 

Temperament and clubhouse concerns aside, Pham has little to offer this team off the bench, much less as a starter. He failed to record a hit in nine games as a Met, and he hardly impressed in his time in the minors with New York and Philadelphia. Somehow, though, the Sox front office must’ve taken a cursory look at his .238 batting average and .773 OPS on the farm and decided he’s better than or the equal of budding Braden Montgomery. Montgomery’s disappointing August is certainly a factor in this seemingly impulsive decision. With his batting average barely better than the Mendoza Line and slugging percentage short of .400, Montgomery’s subpar performance this year shouldn’t be the focus of the outfield. Rather, his hose of an arm should be the reason he’s earned a lineup spot.

Though Pham isn’t expected to take over right field completely, taking reps away from Montgomery is still inexcusable — certainly when the reps are being stolen by a 38-year-old who hasn’t had a good season this decade.

Two more front office decisions will haunt Chicago this year: Refusing to give Michael Turner a chance, and keeping Noah Schultz in a starter role.

Hiding Turner in Triple-A despite him outhitting Korey Lee, Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero is detrimental to the Sox’s reputation and Turner’s self-esteem. Getz’s initial plan was to focus on his young talent, but his contradictory actions at the trade deadline (including the Joey Bart acquisition) show that neither the fans nor players can leave their faith in him. For Turner, it’s a huge slap in the face to be in the minors for four years and the team that drafted you isn’t willing to give you a chance to prove yourself. With a .284 batting average, OPS nearing .800, and fielding versatility behind the dish and at first, Turner could be a quality backup or even starter. Instead, he’s wasting his talent in Charlotte.

The Schultz miss is less obvious, but equally as damaging. For a team that went all-in on Schultz and Hagen Smith as their future lefty rotation staples, the Sox quickly threw their hands up when the former didn’t break out of the gate. Despite tossing two quality starts and five games with fewer than three runs in the majors, Schultz’s poor outings stuck out most. The southpaw got 14 chances to chisel his ERA down to less than 5.00, but it never happened. Instead of sending him down to Triple-A in August, Getz and co should’ve moved Schultz to the pen, where Smith has shined. 

The excuse that Schultz always has been a starter doesn’t fly, as Smith never pitched a relief inning in the minors before being called up. Schultz’s lone appearance out of the arm barn for the Knights went beautifully back on Opening Day, culminating in no hits or runs allowed, one walk and five strikeouts in four frames. While there may not be a place for Schultz on the roster now, Schultz’s fate was decided the moment José Urquidy was acquired in August. It was a horrible decision at the time, and seemingly paints starters and relievers in their boxes.

It just goes to show that Getz often loves to take chances on any player — except the ones in his own organization.

Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

qmerkel asks:Does the injury to George Lombard Jr. make him eligible for rookie of the year next season? If not yet, how many more games does he need to miss?

Rookie status is removed from a player after 130 at-bats in the majors, or 50 innings pitched for pitchers. There is also a 45-day active roster rule that would make players ineligible for rookie status next season, so there’s two hurdles to clear here. Lombard wasn’t put on the Injured List for the duration of his knee inflammation, so the time that he’s been on the bench has been ticking his clock further down and is the likelier reason he’ll lose his status at the end of the year — there’s 23 days left in the regular season and Lombard has been active since August 4th, giving him 32 days on the 26-man roster already including today. He only needs to remain active for 13 more days to cross that threshold, even if his 79 at-bats in 23 games played would’ve given him a slight chance to slide under 130 at the end with 22 games left to play.

Matt C. asks:Why is Mitch Garver on the restricted list and how does that impact a potential callup?

According to the New York Daily News’ Gary Phillips, Garver is still eligible for a postseason roster spot despite getting put on the restricted list, but the team ultimately put him there instead of promoting him when he invoked the assignment clause giving him a chance to shop around for a spot with another Major League team. That the Yankees didn’t take this chance to promote him over Ali Sánchez implies to me that they don’t think he’ll be much of an improvement if he is one at all, but they’ve kept the door open for him at the least. Most likely though, it’ll be the catchers the Yankees have known all season riding with them to the end, especially now that Wells has turned it around in the late summer.

Mackenzie M. asks: Wells has been the everyday catcher for almost a month now. Would the Yankees consider leaving a second catcher off of the roster for the postseason (especially three-game series) and just have Rice available in case of an injury to Wells? That way they open up an extra roster spot?

I don’t think there’s a world where they do that, as it’d be far too dangerous to throw Rice into catching duties in a postseason game when he hasn’t been behind the plate all year. Even if they could substitute a hypothetically-injured Wells for the remainder of that series, that would make him ineligible for the next series and force the Yankees’ hands to either keep Rice as a catching option going forward or roster two of Sánchez, J.C. Escarra, and Garver to handle catching duties for an entire series. That’s far too much risk for the slight reward of adding an additional bench bat, as they wouldn’t be able to carry another reliever and they’ll already have enough options there with a shortened playoff rotation.

JudgeIsStillMyFavoriteOgre asks:Are the Yankees giving Jazz a qualifying offer in the offseason?

That remains to be seen, though the debate will be closer than most people perhaps are considering. Jazz has had a rough year overall, there’s no doubt about that, but he’s quietly collected himself and provided a ton of value down the stretch, leading to him holding a 3.4 fWAR season with 40 steals and a 99 wRC+. If that’s Jazz’s bad year, it’s very much worth a qualifying offer to bring him back for one more year and see if he can re-establish himself on the market a year from now. He’s in a better place than Gleyber Torres was prior to his walk year in 2024, having two strong years directly behind him to back up his overall value, and his second half has perhaps revived his free agent case from the mess it was going to look like in June. It’s fair if he would want that one-year fresh reset still, and it’s fair if the Yankees see surplus value in turning second base over to an in-house option if there are upgrades to be found elsewhere, but in a vacuum I would give the qualifying offer to Chisholm and that’s not a position I felt too strongly about a little over a month ago. He’s significantly turned it around, and he can make his case even better with an October to remember.

The Dodgers were one inning away from a deflating sweep at the hands of the Cards, but ifs don’t come into play. And thanks to Teoscar Hernández, the Dodgers now host the Nats with a lighter, freer mood, even more so since the Brewers lost to the Cubs last night. Settling in nicely since getting activated about a month ago, Blake Snell will face the Nationals in the first game of this weekend series.

Upon his return, Snell couldn’t possibly be more thoroughly living up to his reputation. Unwilling to give in, the former Cy Young winner has walked more than his fair share of batters in recent outings—three in each of the past three, to be precise. Part of why those free passes haven’t come back to bite him, allowing just two runs in this period, has been his ability to keep the ball in the park, with no homers during this stretch.

Despite the reshuffling at the deadline, meaning this Nats team no longer has the exact same lineup that placed it with the highest ISO in the big leagues (.181), there is enough power here for a formidable opponent. Only the Cubs have a better track record against left-handed pitching than the Nationals in the NL, entering play this weekend with a 114 wRC+ against southpaws.

Snell will be opposed by Jackson Kent. And if I had a nickel every time the Dodgers were facing a rookie left-handed starter—drafted in the fourth round of the MLB Draft, making his fifth start in the big leagues—I would have had two nickels in the last two days—which isn’t a lot—but, strangely, this has happened twice in a row.

Friday game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Nationals
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Start time: 7:10 p.m.
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Thursday night I did something I rarely do when I have a ticket at the corner of Clark and Addison, I watched the game from Gallagher Way. It was a wild experience in a number of ways and one I’ll certainly do again someday. Aside from the video board being slightly delayed, I found the audio of the experience delightful. Hearing the crowd roar over the broadcast was brilliant, and a cornucopia for a different sense than I usually get watching the game in-person or on TV.

The moment that really highlighted this for me was this:

The roar that erupted from Wrigley Field as Caleb Williams, Caleb Wilson and Matas Buzelis were shown cheering on MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong behind the dugout was unlike any roar I’ve heard at Wrigley Field. There are only two sounds I recall from games at the corner of Clark and Addison that compare to that moment: one I heard in person from the 200s in the grandstand and the other I heard in person on my couch before I saw what happened on TV.

The first was David Bote’s ultimate grand slam, the second was Christopher Morel’s walkoff against the White Sox. You can get an idea of that audio from this incredible cut Cubs productions released the next day:

What was wild about last night’s moment of sound, however, was that it didn’t accompany a magical moment when the Cubs solidified an improbable victory. It was more a moment of the city’s sports vibes coming into their own. The culmination of a series events that have been building around Chicago’s young sports stars for the past year. A situation that PCA played no small part in orchestrating this offseason, long before he heard the MVP chants at Wrigley Field. Sahadev Sharma captured the series of events well for The Athletic last night:

After the seventh-inning stretch, Williams, Wilson and Buzelis were shown on the video board, and the crowd erupted.

“Awesome having them here,” Crow-Armstrong said. “I felt the energy from the crowd when they got put on the board. Chicago’s got a lot to look forward to with those three.”

The support hasn’t gone just one way. Crow-Armstrong has attended many Chicago sporting events and consistently showed up to Bears games last season as the team made a surprise playoff run.

“It’s important,” Crow-Armstrong said. “I think it’s just huge having guys show up and support each other. What everybody doesn’t see is we genuinely like each other as well. That in itself, just the friendship alone, is great. I’m lucky to have that. To be able to show this city we’re all pulling for each other and all believe in each other is huge.”

It’s been a minute since the entire city felt like a sports town to be reckoned with, but with the Bears playoff run last year and both the Cubs and White Sox looking like probable postseason participants as September begins, the sports vibes all over Chicago have rarely been higher. I admit, I found myself wondering what Bill Swerski’s Superfans might have to say about this one:

Pete Crow-Armstrong would hit 75 home runs. Caleb Williams would be undefeated. Da Bulls would be considering a minimum eight-peat all over again. Obviously I jest, but only a bit. While part of what makes Swerski’s Superfans so excellent is the audacity to believe Da Bears could win on Thanksgiving Day during the 90’s let alone the possibility they’d be up 96-14 at the half.

Scores and specifics aside, this is a moment where fans of the teams in Chicago have not just hope, but elite young talent they can build around for years into the future. The Cubs might have one of the best center fielders of a generation putting together their first 40-40 season in the 150-year history of the franchise. The Bears have an exciting young quarterback leading a team projected to finish first or second in the NFC North. The White Sox have a three-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians, and if the playoffs started today they’d have a bye into the Division Series. They also have Chicago Pope on their side and who can underestimate that?

Last night the Cubs won a game on Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 39th home run. It’s a hit that put him second on the single season Cubs home runs hit by a lefty list behind Hall of Famer Billy Williams. PCA is sitting at 9.4 fWAR with 21 games left to play as the Cubs open a series against Wild Card hopeful Miami on the road. He’s already solidified one of the best Cubs seasons of all time and pulling away in the National League MVP conversation against a generational talent in Shohei Ohtani. And it’s all coming together at a moment where elite Chicago sports energy permeates every neighborhood in the city.

Game on.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country.

After spending months slowly grinding their way back to a .500 record, there was a short time there where you could almost believe that the Orioles might be a decent baseball team that might be able to go somewhere good over the month of September. They have spent the days since that point demonstrating that they might not actually be a decent baseball team, failing in a variety of different aspects while losing the last three games and counting.

Earlier this week, we ran a poll asking Orioles fans which area of the team – offense, defense, rotation, and bullpen – was going to be the biggest problem for the team making it into a wild card spot in the American League. Here’s how the results came in:

I have a sneaking suspicion that if I had put an “all of the above” option, that might have come across as the actual winner. That wouldn’t have been very interesting. As it is, that’s a clear result, with fully half of fans worried most about the offense while a respectable 34% puts the bullpen in second place.

It’s hard to argue with either of those choices after the games that the Orioles have played over the course of this week. They scored just nine runs in 29 innings in Coors Field, and even the one game they won in Colorado, they only scored two runs and were saved by Colton Cowser’s game-ending home run robbery.

Relievers have taken the loss in each game of the current three-game losing streak. Mike Elias did not assemble a good set of options on the roster for Craig Albernaz to use and Albernaz has not proven adept at navigating the ebbs and flows of reliever performance as the season goes along.

Of course, the defense has also contributed to those bullpen failures, putting extra men on base before crucial problems, and with much of the starting rotation approaching or already past career innings highs, there’s no guarantee that group will maintain its current approximation of quality either.

The Orioles have 21 games left to play and they probably need to go 14-7. Every one of these areas will need to be better than it’s been to make that happen. It’s not over til it’s over, but it could be pretty darn close to over if they don’t play well against the Red Sox this holiday weekend.

This week’s survey is sponsored by FanDuel.

The Giants have churned themselves a teeny tiny bit more reliever depth with their latest waiver claim. I’m typing this up somewhat slowly in hopes of learning what the corresponding 40-man move will be, but let’s look at this claim real quick just to see if it has any added meaning beyond, “Warm body we can torture until death.”

The righty reliever is a six-year major league veteran who turned 31 back in February. He’s listed at 6’5” and 290 lbs, which makes him one of the largest Giants in history (Sam Hentges is 6’8” and 255 lbs and Sean Hjelle is 6’11”, 247 lbs). He was drafted back in 2016 and was an 11th round pick of the Cincinnati Reds.

He’s had an… inauspicious major league career. A 5.58 ERA (and 4.72 FIP) in 129 innings spread out across six seasons is just not something that measures up to remarkable, let alone “comment-worthy.” So, the cannon fodder nature of the claim is hard to ignore.

On the other hand, I felt the same thing about JT Brubaker being added to the roster late last season. That was a mid-August minor league signing turned 40-man addition and Brubaker had already started to demonstrate useful results following a return from injury. Kuhnel was bought by the Brewers from the Athletics this season and he went from a 4.21 ERA / 3.95 FIP performance on one of the worst pitching staffs on the planet to a 6.52 ERA / 9.30 FIP in 9.2 IP despite one of the best pitching labs on the planet. So, this is not remotely comparable to the Brubaker addition. He’s also due just the prorated portion of the major league minimum and would be next year, too — although, no MiLB options available.

Cost, plus vague major league experience, plus a warm body to replace all the players they’re adding to the 60-day IL here at season’s end seems like reason enough for this addition. But there is one good Baseball Reason for the addition: to see if the Giants’ pitching lab is actually up to snuff.

Because all of those 60-day IL guys don’t indicate that things are going well in the lab or with the pitching coaches for the organization. And let’s not forget that the on-field results have been putrid, too. But Kuhnel’s arsenal is one that would usually be right in the pitching group’s zone of expertise in terms of optimization. Although his primary repertoire this season has been sinker (51.4%)-cutter (31.7%), in years past (he missed all of 2025 following shoulder surgery), he’s been four-seamer plus sinker or cutter. Basically, a fastball-fastball guy.

But!

He does have a slider.

And it’s here that I think the Giants will try to reestablish their bona fides in bringing pitchers along. Kuhnel’s slider has never hit the threshold of the rpms I think they’ve sought (minimum 2,500 rpm), but in the past, he’s throw it as much as 37% of the time. With a sinker that averages 95+ mph, this two-pitch combo has been the bedrock of Giants relievers since at least Farhan Zaidi took over. It’s a statistically consistent pairing in terms of its effectiveness against major league hitters. Now, the trick is… can the Giants’ pitching group actually tweak Kuhnel’s delivery so that his slider hits that 2,500 rpm minimum? Or maybe he’s a perfect candidate to learn the sweeper, given his slider & cutter abilities.

Again, this is almost certainly a warm body claim, but it’s unlikely the Giants will stray far from their belief that a team needn’t spend a lot of money on the bullpen, even after this season’s results. Plus, Kuhnel will be another in their collection of players who are a year removed from surgery, with a slight problem being that the reason why the Brewers waived him was less his performance more his health. It only took a few weeks after claiming him from the Athletics that he hit the IL with a right shoulder impingement.

Keeping pitchers healthy doesn’t seem to be a part of the Giants’ philosophy anymore, so this will be a real test. Can they make a guy better even if he knows he’s, effectively, walking the plank? He’s also another high velocity arm who doesn’t get many strikeouts. He has a career 6.8 K/9. Even with the Brewers, it only jumped to 7.4. For his career, he’s managed to avoid walks (2.5 BB/9), but that 10.0 H/9 is really something. I’m not sure how necessary a 1.39 WHIP guy is in a beleaguered bullpen. Then again, I’m not smart enough to run a baseball team.

Oh, and Jesus Rodriguez was transferred to the 60-day IL to make room for Kuhnel. We’ll see what the corresponding 28-man move is later on.

Detroit Tigers (64-75) vs. Cleveland Guardians (70-70)

Time/Place: 2:10 p.m., Progressive Field
SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: RHP Keider Montero (9-8, 3.24 ERA) vs. LHP Logan Allen (0-0, 3.77 ERA)

Time/Place: 7:15 p.m., Progressive Field
SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner
Media: Apple TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: LHP Andrew Sears (0-1, 6.75 ERA) vs. LHP Foster Griffin (15-4, 3.21 ERA)

The Braves will have their hands full at the plate in Friday night’s opener of the four-game series in Philadelphia against Phillies ace Cristopher Sánchez.

Putting their best foot forward, the Braves have Ozzie Albies hitting above Matt Olson in the three-hole in the lineup, have Lane Thomas hitting fifth and holding down left field and are starting Sean Murphy behind the plate for the fourth time in five games to maximize Atlanta’s ability against a strong left-handed arm.

Ha-Seong Kim also gets the start at shortstop as Mauricio Dubón makes a rare start in center and gives Michael Harris II, who doesn’t have the best track record against Sánchez, a night out of the starting lineup.

There are no real surprises in the Phillies lineup. Kyle Schwarber is back at DH for this game after playing first base on Wednesday to allow Alec Bohm to get an off day. Bohm is back at first and hitting fifth in the order.

Philadelphia is sitting Brandon Marsh in favor of Edmundo Sosa in left field due to the Braves starting left-hander Chris Sale.

It’s not a surprise that the current Phillies haven’t had much career success against Sale.

The active Phillies hitters are a combined 28-for-131 (.214) lifetime against Sale, with 43 strikeouts and five walks. Derek Hill and Bryan De La Cruz (each 1-for-3) and Trea Turner (6-for-19) are the only Philadelphia players with career batting averages above .300 against Sale. Schwarber has both of the Phillies’ homers off the left-hander, but Bryce Harper is just 2-for-15 (.133) with two singles, seven strikeouts and no walks when facing Sale.

It’s a little more of a surprise that the active Braves hitters have been more successful against Sánchez, who has come into his own as one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few seasons.

Atlanta’s offensive players are a combined 44-for-134 (.328) against Sánchez with six homers, six doubles and 15 RBIs. Austin Riley (6-for-12), Thomas (8-for-14), Drake Baldwin (3-for-6) and Albies (8-for-15) are all hitting .500 or better lifetime against Sánchez. Olson is hitting a more tepid, albeit still good, .300 against Sánchez (6-for-20) but has a pair of homers off the left-hander despite it being an unfavorable matchup on paper.

The Braves scraped across three earned runs against Sánchez the previous time they faced him in April, but kept traffic on the basepaths throughout his six innings thanks to eight hits off the Philadelphia ace.

That carrying forward into this game would set a nice tone in a series where the Braves can take a strong grasp of the NL East should they deliver a good showing.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Brewers fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

In this week’s Reacts survey, we asked fans to pick a fourth starter behind the (presumed) top three arms in Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, and Kyle Harrison. The results were pretty mixed:

With 110 total votes, Dustin May led the way by garnering 45 votes (41%), just ahead of Shane Drohan at 42 votes (38%) and Robert Gasser at 23 votes (21%). That’s about as split as you can be.

As many of you mentioned in the replies to the poll, there’s also the option of going with a pair of bullpen games around Miz and Henderson. Given Harrison’s inconsistencies, especially on the road (5.94 ERA over 50 innings compared to a 1.26 ERA over 57 innings at home), it isn’t out of the question that Pat Murphy would deploy some combination of Harrison, May, Drohan, and Gasser alongside his bullpen to get through the other games, especially with the off days in between.

May, who was shaken up and exited early from his start against the Mets last week, had another rough outing on Sunday against the Rangers, allowing four runs over 4 1/3 innings, though he’ll look to bounce back against the Reds this weekend.

Drohan has been about as consistent as one could ask of a rookie, as he’s made 16 starts this year, going at least five innings in 13 of those appearances (and reaching at least four innings in every start but his MLB debut back in April). In total, he’s pitched to a solid 3.75 ERA and 3.42 FIP over 110 1/3 innings.

Gasser has been a bit more inconsistent, but when he’s on his A-game, he’s a solid option — of his 16 starts, he’s gone at least five innings with two or fewer runs allowed in seven of them, and he’s reached six innings four times.

Has your opinion changed in the last week? Do you think games 3 & 4 should be bullpen games? Have something else you want to say? Keep the conversation going in the comments, and be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for all your betting needs.

Brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, the official sportsbook partner of SB Nation.

Last week saw the Cincinnati Reds get caught a tad bit shorthanded on the infield. Ke’Bryan Hayes was already on the 10-day IL alongside Spencer Steer, while the quad strain suffered by Elly De La Cruz meant he was limited to only DH duties for several days. On top of that, Eugenio Suarez was away from the team as he was busy acing his US naturalization test, meaning the depth and versatility the club usually enjoys on the dirt was stretched thin.

So, it made sense to carry Ivan Johnson, who’s capable at filling in across the diamond. Now that Geno’s back and Elly’s more mobile (in theory), finding other ways to help the position player corps became the goal of the front office.

The next man up? That’d be Carlos Jorge, whom the Reds promoted to the big leagues for the first time on Friday afternoon prior to their series opener against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Johnson was optioned back to AAA to make way on the active roster, while the 40-man roster spot for Jorge was opened by moving Michael Toglia and his dislocated shoulder to the 60-day IL from the 10-day.

Jorge, who also has vast experience at 2B in his minors career, is an elite defender in CF who also has swiped 33 bags on the season. His bat is coming around in a big way, too, as he’s hit .313/.360/.463 across his last 20 games with AAA Louisville (86 PA).

There’s a very educated school of thought that suggests he’s going to be a very big part of the Cincinnati outfield for a long time going forward, seeing as he doesn’t even turn 23 until later this month. Now, the Reds will get an early look at where he may project to start the 2027 season as they face decisions on several other key outfield pieces this winter.

Welcome to the show indeed, Carlos!

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The Philadelphia Phillies (52%) own a league-best 22-8 record over their last 30 games when they host the Atlanta Braves. 

With home-field advantage and a more in-form offense, I see value in backing them to stay hot with my Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Braves vs Phillies today: Philadelphia Phillies (53%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Both teams have the elite of the elite on the mound, so I’m looking at the offenses and bullpens as the separators. The Philadelphia Phillies have the edge with both.

They rank fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitching over the past month, and their bullpen sits third in xERA.

The Atlanta Braves are 17th in both categories during that span, giving them no clear path to win any portion of the game.

Factor in their underwhelming road results – they are 35-33 in away games this season – and the Phillies are an appealing target up to 54%.

COVERS INTEL: Sanchez has allowed a barrel rate of just 3.5% over the past month. The elite barrel suppression we have seen of late will help Sanchez neutralize Atlanta's power.

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (48%)

Chris Sale has allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 24 starts this season, including twice against the Phillies back in April.

He’s posted a 2.60 xERA the past month while allowing just three barrels in 27 innings of work. It’s almost impossible to square him up.

Cristopher Sanchez is sporting a 2.51 FIP in Philadelphia, and has conceded two or fewer in 14 of 16 starts – including a zero against the Braves.

Both of these pitchers are likely to last 6-7 innings, giving very little time to get to higher-variance relievers.

Play to 52%.

Braves vs Phillies home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (22%)

Not many people have good track records against Sale, but Kyle Schwarber is an exception.

He is hitting a respectable .263 and, more importantly, has generated real power with a pair of home runs and a triple.

Sale attacks left-handed hitters with sliders, sinkers, and four-seamers. Schwarber hasn’t taken a lefty yard on the slider this season but owns ISOs of .255 and .404 against sinkers and four-seamers. 

Schwarber has also left the park in 26.1% of games he squared off with a left-handed starting pitcher.

Braves vs Phillies market trends

Here is how the trading volume is coming in on tonight's Braves vs. Phillies matchup at Polymarket, with a slight lean from traders to the hosts.

Braves vs Phillies weather

Temperatures are expected to hover in the low 80s, which will provide a boost to the carry-no-ball.

Braves vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Braves 49% | Phillies 52%
• Run line: Braves -1.5 (35%) | Phillies +1.5 (66%)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (54%) | Under 6.5 (47%)

Braves vs Phillies trend

Atlanta has hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games (+13.50 units, 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.

How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info

Braves vs Phillies latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The reasons to be pessimistic about the schedule we’re about to discuss playing out as intended are plain to see, due to the owners already planning on locking out the players when the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st. But taking the harder path of optimism, let’s hope it will all be OK for the sake of the excercise. In that scenario, we already have our spring training schedule. The Yankees will first take the field in spring training 2027 on February 19th—a date that falls on a Friday—visiting the division rival Toronto Blue Jays in Dunedin.

The Yankees’ first home game in the Grapefruit League will take place on the second day of play, hosting the Atlanta Braves at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Interestingly, the Braves are also the first team the Yankees will play twice, visiting them the following week on the 24th. The team they will face the most often next spring is the Philadelphia Phillies, with five separate matchups against them, taking place on February 21st, 26th, and March 3rd, 10th, and 20th.

New York will play 10 days in a row through the end of February before their first offday, which comes on Monday, March 1st. Carrying on, the first split-squad doubleheader will be played right at the end of spring, on March 20th, hosting the Tigers and visiting the Phillies on the same day. Thereafter, they’ll only host the Rays before coming home to prepare for Opening Day 2027: March 25th against the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium.

As a reminder of what could happen if the lockout plays out in a similar fashion as the previous labor snafu in the 2021-22 offseason, Major League Baseball announced on February 18, 2022 that spring training would be officially delayed. The players had been locked out since December 2, 2021, and they remained in limbo until the league and the union came to an agreement on March 10, 2022. MLB had already cancelled multiple weeks of spring training games at this point and said that the regular season would at minimum be delayed. Rather than continuing with what remained of the planned schedule, they hastily put another one together that also pushed Opening Day back a week. Those regular-season games were not lost; rather, they simply started the postseason a week later than expected, playing out the 162-game slate beforehand. That’s just one scenario though; we have no idea how long negotiations will take this time around.

It’s a long time until March 2027, let alone the time in mid-February when pitchers and catchers usually report. We’ll see how this all plays out.

A pet peeve of mine about the way the Yankees construct a roster is when they hand a job to a top prospect without making him earn it. That is, when the team ignores a position of weakness and relies on a hotshot young prospect seizing the job with relatively little competition. A recent example is Anthony Volpe, who was given a red-carpet ride to the starting shortstop job at some point in 2023 after the Yankees ignored seven different opportunities to sign a seven-figure shortstop in the prior two offseasons (granted, many of those have been failures).

Jasson Domínguez seemed to be handed the starting left field spot in 2025 following the departure of Juan Soto, but the powers that be made a great decision to ride the hot hand in Trent Grisham that April when he got going, pushing the underperforming Domínguez to the bench and since making him prove that he’s worth playing every day, if he’s even a major leaguer at all.

In bringing back Grisham for 2026 on the qualifying offer, the Yankees were ensuring they were avoiding the Volpe mistake with Domínguez or the divisive Spencer Jones, having them both start the season in the minor leagues as depth for when injuries struck. As we now know, they struck in an untenable way, leaving Aaron Judge out the entire summer while having Cody Bellinger and Grisham spend time on the injured list.

This gave both the young outfielders an opportunity, one that they initially seemed to be blowing. Domínguez’s defensive struggles were as ugly as ever, his power had vanished, and the progress he made from the right side was negated by his bat collapsing on his “stronger side.” As such, when Heliot Ramos was acquired at the deadline, it was the Martian on the chopping block.

Jones, on the other hand, looked the part of a guy with big holes in his swing when he was first recalled, but as the team has needed his services more and more as outfielders dropped like flies, he’s gotten better and better. Since his third recall, he genuinely looks like something better than a passable Major League starter, something unimaginable for 2026 entering the season.

This, coupled with the recent struggles of the veteran Grisham, is creating a good problem to have. The Yankees have a rookie who is challenging for a starting role come playoff time, not being penciled in out of necessity. No matter what direction it goes in or how either of them play in October, it’s a tremendous turn of events.

On that note, as Judge’s return grows more and more imminent, who should be getting the lion’s share of reps in center field? Is it as simple as riding the hot hand, or can it be situational? What I’ve seen, based on watching the games and looking at the data, is that it’s a uniquely complex situation with plenty of interesting perspectives. It’s a comparison that stretches the boundaries of ceiling and floor, situational hitting, defense, and some extremely interesting splits.

Let’s start with the incumbent, Grisham, who’s gotten way too much flak for what will go down as ultimately a very successful tenure as a Yankee. We lose sight of it sometimes, but this was a salary dump throw-in in the Juan Soto trade, and he emerged out of nowhere to be an extremely reliable leadoff hitter in 2025, earning the $22 million he got this year. People always seem to overreact to the very end of a player’s tenure, which leaves them with a more negative opinion of said player (see: Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu).

He’s had a season of ebbs and flows, one in which he got off to a truly brutal start to the season with poor batted ball luck. After Judge went down, he took turns with Paul Goldschmidt to carry the offense for about three weeks until a hamstring injury, suffered while running the bases at Rogers Centre, put him on the shelf. When he returned, he started well, but fell into another slump.

His August was a perfect encapsulation of the season as a whole. From August 3rd to 23rd, he mashed seven home runs with 12 extra-base hits and a .967 OPS across 18 games, but has since slipped into a brutal 3-for-34 slump with zero extra-base hits. The former stretch saw him swing much more aggressively early in the count at the expense of his best offensive skill, drawing walks, but he’s seemingly lost that thump in reverting to more of a grinder approach lately.

There’s also the elephant in the room of his defense in center field, which most people didn’t expect would get this bad in 2026. His regression in 2025 was cited, both internally and externally, as a result of the summer hamstring issue he played through. He’s never been a superb athlete, but had managed to be a perennial Gold Glove contender despite it. As we enter the final stretch of 2026, though, he’s clearly been the worst everyday center fielder in baseball defensively, posting a putrid -7 Defensive Runs Saved, -6 Outs Above Average, and -5 Fielding Run Value.

Then, there’s the rookie upstart Jones. A total enigma of a player who could quite possibly be a four-tool guy, but is testing the limits of how good you can be without the biggest floor-raising tool: contact. His initial big-league stints showed potential, but plenty of warts. Since his most recent promotion on July 26th, he’s slashing .250/.315/.500 with seven home runs and, until a golden sombrero on Wednesday night, a noticeably lower strikeout rate.

The tools are there in abundance for the 25-year-old. His 90th percentile speed comes with an ability to play all three outfield positions, while hitting the ball harder than almost everyone. His considerable swing-and-miss risk holds him back, but he’s even been making strides in that regard. His zone contact rate of just 71 percent in Triple-A would’ve matched the worst mark in all of MLB, something extremely concerning when you consider the major stuff difference in the bigs.

Yet, he’s been steadily improving in that department. Since his third promotion, his Z-Contact% sits at a perfectly acceptable 80.8 percent, well above the likes of Munetaka Murakami (who exists as Jones’ best blueprint for success), Cal Raleigh, and Elly De La Cruz. He’s made gradual improvements in his chase rate, a metric that has separated the guys like James Wood and Murakami from the flameouts like Aristides Aquino and Bobby Dalbec.

Jones represents upside, athleticism, and a defensive upgrade. His stats currently trump Grisham’s across the board, so why is this a tough decision? Well, part of it has to do with being a prisoner of the moment and judging one player at their worst and another at their best, but also because there’s more nuance than you might think here, particularly in postseason situations, where little things matter.

Jones’ superior defense can win you a playoff game just based on being able to make a play Grisham can’t, but are the odds that happens as likely as him coming to the plate in what I like to call a “productive out situation?” Runner on second with nobody out and a runner on third with one out. Those are the two situations, with fewer than two outs, where a batter being unable to make contact has drastic effects on the team’s ability to score that inning.

With Jones, he’s had a bevy of those opportunities over the last week, whether in an extra-innings situation or in a critical juncture where runs are at a premium. In all but one of those instances, his at-bat ended with a strikeout or an unproductive out, a risk you would have to acknowledge with him in the lineup, given his weaknesses as a batter.

Grisham’s had less of these opportunities of late, particularly due to usually hitting leadoff as opposed to a prime RBI situation, but it doesn’t take a baseball expert to see why the veteran is a better guy to have up in this spot. Grisham has the best chase and strikeout rates on the team, while making contact in-zone at a 90 percent clip. He also pulls significantly more batted balls, even in his slumps. A bad Grisham at-bat typically ends in a rolled-over ground ball to the right side, while a bad Jones at-bat ends in a whiff.

Speaking of pulling the ball, the difference in batted ball direction by the two lefties might cause such drastic home/road splits. This is truly a sight to behold:

Trent Grisham:
Home: .241/.342/.503, 134 wRC+ (234 PA)
Road: .184/.274/.297, 63 wRC+ (249 PA)

Spencer Jones (since third promotion on 7/26):
Home: .207/.288/.362, 77 wRC+ (66 PA)
Road: .296/.345/.648, 174 wRC+ (58 PA)

You’ve heard of handedness platoons, but what about home/road platoons? Has that ever been done before? Probably not, but I can see how this disparity exists. Grisham, being the pull hitter he is, thrives at Yankee Stadium the same way that Bellinger does, while Jones’ light-tower power can get him positive results at all fields as a guy who doesn’t pull the ball much at all, similar to a James Wood-type of player.

Now, regardless of how you feel about this decision, don’t lose sight of the road we’ve taken to get here. A lot of people who’ve long been fans of Domínguez and Jones detested the decision to bring Grisham back, particularly suggesting a catastrophic regression was likely to happen. While he’s definitely underachieved for his salary this year, he was more than a fine investment in a league that gives Ha-Seong Kim $20 million and Adolis Garcia $10 million. The contract year fallacy doesn’t work when you immediately get put into another contract year.

I do believe that we don’t get this version of Jones without bringing Grisham back. If we assume the same injuries occur and the Yankees decide to spend the money elsewhere, it’d pave the way for Jones and Domínguez to get extended reps early. With how much the former has improved directly after each promotion and demotion, it’s fair to wonder what things would look like if the Yankees had just thrown him into the fire the way they’ve handled the shortstop position over the last four years.

So, whatever direction the Yankees go, this is something they’ll definitely be watching in the next few weeks as they solidify where and when they’re starting the postseason. Both of these guys are pivotal to the story of the 2026 Yankees and deserve opportunities to make an impact in October in some capacity. To what extent, however, is to be determined.