Jun 26, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe (5) hits a sacrifice fly RBI against the Cincinnati Reds during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
The Phillies took care of business against the Mets. By taking care of business, they just kind of got out of the Mets’ way and let them find ways to lose, but a win is a win, and the Phillies won two games in a stadium where they don’t often do so. Now, they’ll return home to face a Pirates team that got off to a good start, but has a losing record in June and is now down to a .500 record.
Opposition research: Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe’s career got off to a great start. As a rookie with the Rays, he made the All-Star team and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting. The next two years, he was in the top 10 of AL MVP voting, including a 39-home run season in 2021.
But he never took the next step to superstardom, and settled in as a good, but not great player. He’ll hit 20+ home runs every season (31 in 2025) but an unexceptional on-base percentage, and increasingly poor defense at second base made the Rays deem him expendable. He was part of a three-team trade this offseason, and started the season as the Pirates’ second baseman.
The change of scenery has seemed to agree with him. He’s already hit 20 home runs, and his defense has graded out much better.
The record for most HR by a primary 2B in Pirates history is 23
It’s possible that he makes his second All-Star team, although Phillies fans can help prevent that if they stuff the ballot box for Bryson Stott.
He’s going to be a free agent at season’s end, meaning the Pirates have a decision to make. It seems dangerous for a team with such a limited payroll to commit to a guy having a career best season at age 31.
Remembering a guy who played for the Pirates and Phillies
Andy Van Slyke is best remembered for his time with the Pirates. In eight seasons with the team, he made three All-Star games, two Silver Slugger awards, and five Gold Gloves in center field. After 1994, with Van Slyke seemingly in decline, the Pirates allowed him to leave as a free agent.
He signed with the Orioles for the 1995 season, but struggled, batting .159 in 17 games. The Phillies, needing outfield help, traded for him, putting him in center field, and shifting Lenny Dykstra to left.
Van Slyke had a successful debut with the Phillies, hitting a home run in a win over the Mets. Unfortunately, he then got injured in his second game and ended up missing almost a month. He struggled greatly after his return, and ended up batting just .243 in 63 games as the Phillies had an awful second half of the season.
Why hate on the Pirates when team ownership does such a good job of it themselves? They run the team like a minor league franchise, and it feels like a matter of when, not if, that Paul Skenes is pitching somewhere else.
They pick near the top of the draft just about every year, but very few blue-chip talents ever seem to reach the major league team. They already handed a bag to prospect Konnor Griffin and based on how the past few decades have gone for the Pirates, it seems just as likely that he’ll go the way of Scott Kingery.
Additional thought about the series
Wednesday’s pitching matchup of Zack Wheeler vs. Skenes is a great one on paper, although the earlier matchup between the two didn’t turn out to be much of a pitchers’ duel. Wheeler was terrific, throwing seven shutout innings, but Skenes was clearly not at his best, giving up five runs in five innings.
Somehow, the Pirates are still using Gregory Soto as their closer. He has four blown saves on the season, including one against the Phillies. Last time, I predicted that he’d blow one, and really, it wasn’t that difficult of a prediction. In a four-game series, it feels like he’s got another bad outing in him.
We have the latest round of results from MLB Reacts. The first question has to do with which division leader needs to have the most urgency at the deadline:
Since this poll went out, the Yankees have been surpassed in the American League East by the Tampa Bay Rays, the Mariners are now a half game back of the Rangers for first in the American League West, and the Guardians are tied with the Chicago White Sox for first in the A.L. Central.
In a vote of which contenders need to have the most urgency, Cleveland is not included, and so Seattle takes the top spot.
The Home Run Derby has gone to a “number of swings” system, which the majority of respondents think is a good thing:
And when asked which accomplishment they’d most like to see in person, watching a no-hitter was the clear favorite over the rest of the field:
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On the other side, Gage Jump looks like a future ace, carrying a 2.04 ERA through six starts while coming off back-to-back scoreless outings. All six of his starts have resulted in the game total going Under.
The New York Yankees are -133 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers on Monday night, but my Tigers vs. Yankeespredictions are taking the better starter at a plus-money price.
Who will win Tigers vs Yankees today: Tigers moneyline (+119)
Despite nearly pulling off a dramatic late comeback last night, it's hard to back the New York Yankees right now.
Their offense is anemic, and the pitching hasn’t been great. I'm backing the Detroit Tigers tonight and would play them to -110.
Casey Mize gives Detroit the pitching edge over Ryan Weathers. Mize’s 3.16 xERA, .225 xBA allowed, and 36.1% hard-hit rate match up well against a Yankees lineup hitting .190 over its last 11 games.
Weathers may generate more swings-and-misses, but his 4.50 xERA, .459 xSLG allowed, and 11.7% barrel rateincrease damage risk.
I’m playing the Under because the Yankees’ season-long run production is not matching their current form.
The Bronx Bombers nearly got no-hit last night in the midst of a sweep by the Red Sox, scoring just nine runs in four games while consistently leaving runners stranded.
Detroit has not been much cleaner, going 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position over its past two games.
Weathers is the risk because he gives up barrels, but Mize can suppress the better offense long enough to keep this game inside 8. My model makes this closer to 7.4 runs.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 31-29, +4.67 units
Over/Under bets: 37-25, +16.77 units
Tigers vs Yankees weather
The warm, 81-degree weather makes hitting conditions somewhat favorable, but there's little wind to speak of, and it's blowing right-to-left.
Tigers vs Yankees odds
Moneyline: Tigers +120 | Yankees -133
Run line: Tigers +1.5 | Yankees -15
Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Tigers vs Yankees trend
The Tigers have hit the F5 moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+8.40 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Yankees.
How to watch Tigers vs Yankees and game info
Location
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date
Monday, June 29, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
Detroit Sports Network, YES
Tigers starting pitcher
Casey Mize (2-5, 2.95 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcher
Ryan Weathers (3-5, 3.95 ERA)
Tigers vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JUNE 28: Luis García Jr. #2 of the Washington Nationals drives in two runs with a double in the third inning against the Baltimore Oriolesat Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 28, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After Luis Garcia Jr. had what seemed like a breakout season in 2024, where he posted a 110 wRC+ and played above average defense at second base for the first time in his career, resulting in a 3.0 fWAR year, his numbers came crashing back down to Earth in 2025, posting a 91 wRC+ and playing subpar defense at second base, resulting in 0.7 fWAR over the full season. Entering 2026, his 7th season in the big leagues, many fans hoped he could at least come close to recreating the magic he had in 2024, or else his future with the Nats was in question with a new front office in town.
Things didn’t click for Garcia Jr. right away this season, as he posted a 76 wRC+ through March and April while struggling at his new home defensively, first base. Some frustrated fans, including myself, called for him to either be benched or DFA’ed, believing there were options in Triple-A for the Nats who could provide more value than Garcia Jr. was. Things started to click, however, in May for him, posting a strong 123 wRC+ and hitting 4 home runs, and he has gone ballistic in June, with a staggering 207 wRC+ and 11 home runs for the month.
So here we are in late June, and Luis Garcia Jr. has a 131 wRC+, the 33rd highest in all of baseball, 10th highest amongst first basemen, and 3rd highest on the Nats, behind only James Wood (143) and CJ Abrams (138), whom he has become within range of passing soon. How has Luis Garcia Jr. found another gear offensively in his 7th season in the major leagues? By not centering his game around hiding his weaknesses, but around exemplifying his strengths.
Luis Garcia Jr. has, and likely will always be, a chase hitter, running a below-average chase rate his entire career, often in the bottom 10th percentile among all big league hitters. Counter to what you may expect, however, some of the best seasons of Garcia Jr’s career have come when his chase rate is at its highest, with a 9th percentile chase rate during his breakout 2024 campaign and a 6th percentile chase rate this season.
Garcia Jr’s chase rate has risen 3% from 2025 to 2026, and his walk rate is a 4th percentile 4.1%, but what he is doing is swinging the bat harder, with his average bat speed rising 1 MPH, hitting the ball harder, with a 91st percentile average exit velocity of 92.4 MPH, and lifting the ball more than ever, with his average launch angle rising from 9.2 to 11.6. Rather than trying to plug one of the holes in his game, and hurting his skillset as a result, Garcia Jr. has made swinging hard and doing damage to the pull side his focus in 2026, and it is paying off in the form of a career year.
So what is the next step for Luis Garcia Jr.? Offensively, if there is a way for him to draw more walks while still providing the same power output he is currently, that would be ideal, but I wouldn’t dare mess with what he has going on right now. Defensively, Garcia Jr. has work to do at first base, as his -4 OAA ranks in the 13th percentile among all first basemen, and getting to even league average would help out both the Nats and Garcia Jr. himself tremendously.
With just a year and a half of service time remaining, Garcia Jr. may be a trade piece for Paul Toboni and the front office if they decide selling is best for the future this trade deadline. If we’re nearing the end of his tenure as a Nat, it has been a pleasure to see him develop and grow, from when he was a fresh-faced 20-year-old debuting in front of zero fans in 2020, to a slugging first baseman on the best Nationals club of his big league career. Whether he’s a Nat or not moving forward, he will be a player I look back on fondly when I look back on the 2020s as a decade for the Washington Nationals.
Pete Alonso played his 500th consecutive game, although if he wanted that to seem impressive to local fans, he probably picked the wrong city to play in.
Alonso, of course, joined the Baltimore Orioles this past offseason. Their franchise record for consecutive games also is the big league record of 2,632 by Cal Ripken Jr.. Lou Gehrig held the record of 2,130 before it was broken by Ripken in 1995.
Alonso now is at 501. That means one still can fit Gehrig’s entire streak into the gap between Ripken and Alonso. Before leaving the New York Mets for Baltimore, Alonso did set their franchise record of 416 consecutive games.
The only player with a longer active streak is Matt Olson, and unlike Alonso he’s on the verge of breaking his current team’s mark. Olson has played 864 straight games, the last 730 of which have come for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves’ record is held by two-time MVP Dale Murphy at 740. So Olson is on track to break the record July 10, on the road against St. Louis.
Olson would tie Murphy’s mark July 9 — exactly 40 years to the day from when Murphy’s streak ended.
Trivia time
Which still-existing franchise has the shortest consecutive games record? Aside from Ripken’s Orioles and Gehrig’s New York Yankees, which has the longest?
Bumbling Blue Jays
For the teams in the American League wild-card race, it’s hard to fall too far off the pace. The Toronto Blue Jays have lost six straight games, and they’re still only 2 1/2 games out of a postseason spot.
That doesn’t make this recent stretch of baseball any more palatable. Texas swept four straight from the defending AL champions, with the Blue Jays dropping the finale when they let Jarred Kelenic score the winning run all the way from second on a wild pitch in the ninth.
There isn’t much for Toronto to be happy about, especially at the plate. After finishing third in the majors in OPS last year, the Blue Jays are in the bottom 10 this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has only four home runs and George Springer is batting .220.
Performance of the week
Junior Caminero hit three home runs and drove in six runs as Tampa Bay routed Kansas City 13-2. The Rays also took a combined no-hitter into the ninth inning of that game before Carter Jensen homered off Craig Kimbrel with one out.
Tampa Bay has hit just 74 home runs this season — only Miami and Boston have fewer — and Caminero has 22 of them.
Comebacks of the week
It’s a three-pack this week, courtesy of the resurgent Phillies and a compliant Washington bullpen.
Tuesday: The Nationals lead 5-0 in the fifth and 8-6 in the ninth before allowing eight runs in the final inning for a 14-9 loss. Those eight runs came after the first two Philadelphia batters of the ninth struck out.
Wednesday: Again down to their last out with nobody on, Philadelphia rallies with Kyle Schwarber’s walk and Derek Hill’s two-run homer. The Phillies win 5-4.
Thursday: Down 5-0, the Phillies score two runs in the sixth, three in the seventh and five in the ninth for a 10-5 victory.
Washington’s peak win probabilities, according to Baseball Savant: 98.8% on Tuesday, 96.3% on Wednesday and 96.5% on Thursday.
The Nationals also blew an eight-run lead at San Francisco earlier in June. They’ve lost four games after leading by at least five — the most such defeats in baseball.
Trivia answer
According to Sportradar, the shortest belongs to Washington. The franchise mark is held by the elder Vladimir Guerrero, who played in 276 straight games when the team was still in Montreal.
Aside from the Orioles and Yankees, the Chicago Cubs have the longest team record for consecutive games: 1,117 by Billy Williams. Not far behind are the Los Angeles Dodgers (1,107 by Steve Garvey) and Cleveland (1,103 by Joe Sewell).
Bubble gum card (from the Bowman Gum Company) features baseball player Gus Zernial, of the Philadelphia Athletics, 1953. (Photo by Transcendental Graphics/Getty Images) | Getty Images
When you read about old baseball players, doesn’t it seem like they led more interesting lives than their current-day brethren? It seems so to me. Consider the life of Gus Zernial.
Zernial was born in Beaumont, Texas in 1923, one of ten children. He was a multi-sport star at Beaumont High and, after graduation, played one season with the Waycroft Bears, an unaffiliated team in the Class D Georgia-Florida League.
At the end of the season, Zernial joined the United States Navy, where he served three years as a radio technician.
The time in the Navy was good for Zernial. He went in at 6 ft. and 180 pounds and came out at 6’2″ and 220 pounds.
In 1946, he played for the Class C Burlington Bees and led the Carolina League in home runs (41) and slugging percentage. He also hit .333, drove in 111, and scored 114 times.
Cleveland selected him in that year’s Rule 5 draft and stashed him in AAA Baltimore. In late April 1947, they sold his rights to the Chicago White Sox. The Sox assigned him to their AAA affiliate, the Hollywood Stars of the Pacific Coast League.
Zernial was a star with the Stars, during which he picked up the nickname Ozark Ike. Ozark Ike was a popular comic strip that ran from the mid-1940s until 1958. Ozark Ike was the creation of Ray Gotto, who later in life designed the New York Mets logo.
While playing in Hollywood, Zernial was anointed with the title of being the next Joe DiMaggio. The handsome Zernial was chosen to pose with a young actress named Marilyn Monroe for a movie publicity shoot. Joe D later asked Zernial to introduce him to the blonde bombshell. The rest, as they say, is history. Once you’ve made commercials with peak Marilyn Monroe, what do you do for an encore?
Zernial made his major league debut on April 19th, 1949, against the Tigers. He hit his first major league home run a few days later off the St. Louis Browns’ Red Embree.
He established himself as one of the game’s best young power hitters during the 1950 and 1951 seasons with combined totals of 62 home runs and 222 RBI.
In April of 1951, the Sox engineered a three-team trade with Cleveland and the Philadelphia Athletics in which Philly received Dave Philley, Ray Murray, Sam Zoldak, and Zernial. The Sox received Minnie Miñoso in return.
Zernial played four seasons in Philadelphia, blossoming into one of the game’s most feared sluggers. During that four-year span, Zernial averaged 30 home runs and 100 RBI, while hitting .268. He picked up MVP votes in two seasons and made his only All-Star team in 1953.
Like most players, Zernial could get blisteringly hot. Over a four-game stretch in May of 1951, he scorched the Yankees and Browns, going 8-for-15 with seven home runs and 29 total bases. He had several huge games in his 11-year career, with the best coming on June 22nd, 1952, when he blistered Detroit pitching, going 5 for 6 with two home runs and 11 total bases, leading the Athletics to a 10-0 win.
Zernial moved west with the Athletics to Kansas City, where he continued to be a formidable power hitter. He played three seasons in KC, averaging 24 home runs and 66 RBI per season. Age was beginning to catch up to him, as well as nagging injuries. His best year in Kansas City would have been his first, 1955, when he banged 30 home runs and drove in 84.
In November of 1957, the Athletics put together a massive 13-player trade with the Detroit Tigers in which they sent Zernial, Billy Martin, Mickey McDermott, Tom Morgan, Lou Skizas, and Tim Thompson to Detroit. The Athletics got back seven players, the best being outfielder Bill Tuttle and catcher Frank House. In those days, the Athletics were always making massive off-season trades, desperately trying to remake their roster. Between 1955 and 1965, they made twelve separate trades of at least five players. Eight of those trades involved at least seven players.
Zernial played two more seasons in Detroit, but by this time he was already 35 and his once prodigious power was gone. He hit just 12 more home runs in the final 126 games of his career, the final one coming off Herb Score of the Indians on August 15th, 1959.
Zernial’s career numbers were solid: a career .265 batting average with 237 home runs and 776 RBI over an 11-year career. He led the American League in home runs in 1951 and led all of baseball in RBI that magical summer. He was always near the top of the league in outfield assists.
In retirement, Zernial did television commercials and was a sportscaster in Fresno. He did play-by-play for most of Fresno State’s sports teams for years and was instrumental in helping Fresno secure a minor league team.
He had a serious bout with cancer in 1992, being so close to death that he received last rites. He miraculously beat it and lived until January 20th, 2011, when he died of congestive heart failure at the age of 87.
What a life. Baseball prodigy. U.S. Navy veteran. All-Star baseball player. Worked with Marilyn Monroe. What more could a young man from Texas ask for?
Jun 28, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero (13) reacts after hitting a home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fifth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
After a rather underwhelming June in which it felt at times that the Rays were in free fall destined to repeat the 2025 season spiral, they rebounded and rattled off five consecutive wins. Now, 81 games down and eight sweeps later, they again sit atop the AL East with sole possession of the division lead for the first time since June 6th.
Junior Caminero has been leading the charge at the plate and Sunday was no exception. He got the party started in the first with a RBI-single and then launched a towering 463-foot bomb to the party deck in left-center field in the fifth inning to extend the Rays lead to 4-0. The blast was his seventh in six games.
The Rays added on in the second inning via the longball. Cedric Mullins hit his eighth of the year to right center. The solo shot gave the Rays a 2-0 lead. Then, Walls scored on a Yandy Diaz sac fly to give the Rays a 3-0 advantage.
Rasmussen was again stellar, tossing six shutout innings and collecting his seventh win of the season. He punched out five, walked one, and allowed just three hits. His ERA now sits at 2.45.
Kimbrel, Cleavinger, and Martin wrapped things up on the mound for the Rays. Cleavinger allowed the only run of the day on a solo homer off the bat Ketel Marte. The score of 5-1 would hold as the Rays finished off the series sweep.
AL East sweeps appeared to be a popular weekend activity as the Red Sox completed a 4-game sweep of the Yankees, allowing the Rays to leapfrog the Bronx Bombers and retake first place in the East. The Rays will have Monday off before heading to Kansas City to face off against the Royals. Jax will get the start Tuesday as the team looks to keep the good times rolling.
BOSTON — The New York Yankees remain in limbo on a date for slugger Aaron Judge to return from a fractured rib, manager Aaron Boone said.
Boone gave a brief update on Judge before the Yankees wrapped up a four-game series against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Boone said Judge, out since early June with a rib stress fracture, is still awaiting follow-up imaging.
“I don’t know exactly when,” Boone said. “He’s doing some workout stuff in the weight room. I don’t know all that he’s doing specifically, but I think he’s doing some more things than he was initially.”
Boone said a timetable for the three-time MVP to have the injury re-imaged remained unclear.
Judge was placed on the 10-day injured list June 5, retroactive to June 2.
Jun 28, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images
Robbie Ray has been pitching in the Major Leagues since 2014. He’s appeared in 282 games, started 277 of those, and across all that time spent on the mound, his approach has always been straightforward. Throw the ball straight. Throw the ball hard.
We’re talking about the 4-seamer. The ol’ tried-and-true hardball.
Over his career Ray has rode the Pony Express to a pretty successful 10+ year Major League career. With some seasonal variety, his usage of the 4-seam fastball has hovered around 50%. When he earned his first All-Star nod in 2017, Ray threw the 4-seam 56% of the time. In 2025, his second All-Star honors and nearly a decade later, Ray threw it 52% of the time. When he won the AL Cy Young Award, the 4-seam usage peaked at 59% on the year. The lowest his 4-seam percentage has ever been across a whole season was 39% in 2022…until now.
Ray’s 4-seam usage has officially dropped below 2022’s low to 38.7%. Tenths of a percentage point but still significant as it might be a signpost of what lies ahead. Sunday’s masterpiece against the Braves has a lot to do with this. Over 8 innings in a game in which he threw 95 pitches, Ray reached back and hurled his signature fastball just six times. 6.3% of his mix which is his lowest single-game usage of the 4-seam fastball over his entire 13 year career. And it worked! He got outs, just not in the way Ray, as a three-outcome pitcher, is typically used to getting outs. 24 outs were recorded by Ray, and just two of those 24 went down by way of the K. He didn’t throw a 4-seam fastball until the 6th inning — an inning he rarely sees considering the rear-back-and-huck, command-be-damned style he’s developed over the years.
Let’s look at those years. Ray has completed 6 innings in 49% of his starts. He’s completed 8 innings in 5 (three of them with the Giants), and has now pitched at least 6 innings with 2 or fewer strikeouts just three times in his career. Everything about Sunday’s outing was an anomaly for Ray. He stuffed his 4-seamer in his back pocket and essentially forgot it there. In its stead, he relied on a trio of sinker (39%) – slider (23%) – change-up (26%). A Logan Webb type spread that got Logan Webb results: 4 hits, a walk and an unearned run over 8 innings and 95 pitches, with more groundouts than flyouts (10 – 9).
The reasoning behind the sinker shift is pretty straightforward. Ray had a rough May. He posted a 6.44 ERA over six starts and just 29.1 innings pitched with a string of four games in which he didn’t get through the 5th inning.
This rough patch coincided with a pretty rough patch for a headless rotation with Webb on the injured list. Ray didn’t fill the lead role when the team needed him to; rather, he kinda devolved like the rest of them. Starters couldn’t find their way deep into games which taxed an already ragtag and unreliable bullpen. It wasn’t pretty. Things needed to change.
The sure-fire way to pitch deep into a ballgame is to get quick outs. The quickest way to get quick outs is to induce contact. A strikeout requires a minimum of three pitches. An out by way of a ball in play, just one. As Logan Webb acolytes, this logic and philosophy is felt on a spiritual level. Ray is not Webb, and that has frustrated me, as I’m sure it has many of you. Ray’s whole approach to pitching is verticality. The 4-seamer is designed to ride up. He doesn’t rely on velocity (his average velo is about league average), it’s about perceived vertical movement. It’s supposed to invite swings and miss swings — but this can be a laborious way to retire a hitter. Borderline pitches at the top of the zone can be taken for balls, they can be fouled away. In this fastball acclimated league, ticking a piece off a straight pitch isn’t hard to do, and often, we’d see hitters drag Ray into these prolonged frustrating battles of 3-ball counts and countless foul tips and spoiled pitches. The longer an at-bat takes, the more it favors the hitter, and whole outings would be undermined by a couple of batters that matched Ray’s stubbornness.
The sinker has a different look than the 4-seam. We know this. It’s heavier with more movement, an arm-side lilt with less rise than the 4-seamer. If a hitter takes a hack that would foul off a 4-seamer, or lift it dangerously into the air, that same swing would probably put a sinker in play but drive it into the ground. The sinker has just a 5% K-percentage, and its hard-hit percentage is much higher than Ray’s 4-seam (61% to 42%), but opponent’s average launch angle has been cut in half (24 degrees to 12). As scary as it is for someone like Ray who prefers whiffs and strikeouts, embracing contact can be positive. The sinker doesn’t have to be as fine, it doesn’t need to be painted as much as 4-seamer to be effective. It’s another way to get outs, to get them fast and keep Ray in the game — this was the thinking behind the sinker’s return.
Ray’s sinker didn’t just come out of nowhere. It lingered around the periphery of Ray’s repertoire for his entire career. He used it as much as a quarter of the time in 2015 and 2016 before it dropped out of favor and went almost the way of the dodo in 2021. It had a resurgence in 2022, throwing it 20% of the time during his first year in Seattle, but as Ray struggled with coming back from Tommy John the following seasons, the pitch went dormant again.
Of the 3,069 pitches Ray threw in 2025, a sinker accounted for two of them. According to Baseball Savant, he threw the sinker once over his first 9 starts of the 2026 season — that sinker was bunted for a single by Washington’s Nassim Nunez on April 19th. He didn’t throw another for a month, until May 18th when Ray’s sinker usage jumped to 13% and the 4-seam usage fell to 17% against Arizona. He got shelled for 9 earned runs. But that didn’t discourage him at all, because pitching isn’t solely about pitch usage. It’s about when you use a pitch, and how it’s paired with others. According to Fangraphs pitch value measurement, Ray’s sinker was actually the bright spot in that dismal outing against the D-Backs (1.08 Runs above average per 100 pitches compared to the 4-seam’s -19.05). While it hasn’t been perfect, the pitch’s run value has been positive as its usage has increased over Ray’s return to form in June. In his first start against Atlanta, in Atlanta, Ray used it 31% of the time on his way to allowing just 2 hits over 6.1 scoreless innings. His success in that start wasn’t based on the dominance of this new fastball type, but how the sinker complimented the 4-seam or set-up his change-up.
Maybe that’s the key here: the change-up. On Sunday, 10 of the 22 outs on balls in play were off Ray’s change-up, and it should’ve been 11 if not for Matt Chapman’s 8th inning error. Sinker and change are a classic and sophisticated pairing. The wine-and-cheese of a pitcher’s mix, and the recent sinker renaissance for Ray was probably facilitated by his ongoing success and comfort throwing the offspeed.
For all the buzz Ray’s Tarik Skubal offspeed got in the offseason before 2025, it wasn’t particularly effective throughout the year. Spotty is a good descriptor. Ray used it 13% of the time, it accrued a -1 Run Value, or -0.2 RV/100.
Things are different now. So far this season, it’s statistically been his best pitch with a 2.6 RV/100 and accruing a Run Value of 7, putting it in the 99th percentile for offspeed offerings (as of Monday, 6/29). Ray throws the pitch exclusively to right-handers and they aren’t hitting it for average, nor are they slugging it for power. In 90 plate-appearances finished with the change-up this year, only three have resulted in an extra base hit. The last-one, a Corbin Carroll triple, dates back to that rough Arizona outing in mid-May.
A noticeable difference with the change-up is it’s been coming out of Ray’s hand a little harder, and because of that, it doesn’t fall away from righties as much as a change-up typically would. The offering is flatter than normal — like everything Ray throws. Mapping out its movement the pitch inhabits the same zone as the sinker, it just comes at the plate 6 beats slower on average. That’s a headache for a hitter, another thing to think about, another pitch-type and movement and speed to discern and deal with when facing Ray. The two offerings tunnel well off each other. They protect each other: the change-up providing back-up to the sinker, and vice-versa. Having them as known entities also helps to muddy the waters. Ray might never fully shake the hard fastball-slider reputation, but in 2026, he’s just not that guy anymore, which makes him harder to prep for, harder to sit back on and ambush, harder to frustrate and spoil, harder to chase off the mound.
PITTSBURGH — X-rays were inconclusive on Eugenio Suárez’s left hand after he was hit by a pitch and forced to leave the Cincinnati Reds’ 9-4 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Manager Terry Francona said Suárez will have a CT scan after traveling with the team to Milwaukee for the start of a four-game series against the Brewers.
“Right now, it’s very swollen. So, the X-ray doesn’t say anything because it’s too swollen,” Suárez said. “We’ll see what is in there. Right now, obviously, I feel a lot better than when I got hit. I thought he hit me really good. Was painful, but right now, I feel a lot better. So, I pray to God for nothing to come up.”
Suárez was hit by a 92.4 mph fastball from Mitch Keller with two outs in the sixth inning. The designated hitter was checked by Francona before slowly making his way to first base. Nathaniel Lowe came in for Suárez’s next at bat in the eighth.
“It swelled up really rapidly,” Francona said. “The trainers’ hope was that maybe it hit a blood vessel. ... He’s very tender. So, we’ll get more information tomorrow.”
In his 13th major league season, Suárez is batting .208 with eight home runs and 29 RBIs. The 34-year-old was named an All-Star for the second time last season.
Suárez propelled Cincinnati to a 9-7 win earlier in the series. With the Reds down a run and two outs in the ninth, he drove a 2-2 sinker from Gregory Soto 344 feet to right field for a three-run homer.
Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with premium bats in strong matchups across the board, setting the stage for plenty of power upside.
The big question is whether elite sluggers like Yordan Alvarez or Pete Alonso can cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight.
My best home run props for Monday, June 29 are banking on them to do just that.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Yordan Alvarez
+215
Pete Alonso
+279
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+215)
Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez enters Monday’s slate with arguably the best matchup of the day, drawing Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, against whom Alvarez has nearly 100% arsenal coverage.
The Minnesota right-hander has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing nearly a 70% elevation rate, a 40% hard-hit rate, and an 11.5% barrel rate over his last 60 left-handed batters faced. Those hitters have posted a .663 xSLG and a .476 xwOBA during that span.
Despite Alvarez’s .200 average over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he is still generating a 43% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate, while posting a .403 wOBA.
The price is not ideal, but given the overall matchup, it is justified.
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SCH, MNNT
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+279)
For those who read how much I loved Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso to go Over 1.5 total bases against Sean Burke, in my MLB player props for tonight, how could I pass up his home run prop? Especially when the Chicago White Sox right-hander has allowed over a 76% elevation rate to the last 60 right handed hitters he has faced.
To add to that, Alonso has been seeing the ball extremely well of late, posting a 20% barrel rate, .792 SLG, and .523 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
This matchup has extra base hits written all over it. Hopefully one of them leaves the yard.
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CHSN, MASN
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 65-230, +12.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JUNE 18: Parker Messick #77 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at American Family Field on June 18, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Two division leaders square off in Cleveland tonight as the Rangers and Guardians meet. Now, they are by far the worst divisions in baseball, but that’s besides the point.
The Rangers are 42-42 with a -8 run differential, 15th in team wRC+ at 101, 17th in baserunning runs above average at -1.3, 15th in defense at -11, 11th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.09 (3.99 FIP), and 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.82 (4.23 FIP).
The Guardians are 44-40 with a -8 run differential, 26th in team wRC+ at 91, 14th in baserunning runs above average at +1.6, tenth in Defense at -4.7, fifth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.66 (4.09 FIP), and 14th in bullpen ERA at 3.94 (3.85 FIP).
On paper, these teams look very evenly matched. The Guardians are going to need to do better than the 1-0/2-1 run-scoring strategy to win this series.
MATCHUPS: Game One, Monday, 7:10PM – Parker Messick, LHP 2.67 ERA (3.15 FIP) vs. Tyler Alexander, LHP 2.62 ERA (3.33 FIP)/Winston Santos, RHP (5.66 FIP in the minors this year). Game Two, Tuesday, 6:40PM – Tanner Bibee, RHP 3.78 ERA (4.56 FIP) vs. Jacob deGrom, RHP 3.55 ERA (3.58 FIP) Game Three, Wednesday, 1:10PM ET – Joey Cantillo, LHP 3.87 ERA (4.33 FIP) vs. MacKenzie Gore, LHP 4.05 ERA (3.33 FIP)
The Rangers are led by Justin Foscue 132 wRC+, Joc Pederson 124 wRC+, Josh Jung 123 wRC+, Nicky Lopez 115 wRC+, Jake Burger 114 wRC+, Brandon Nimmo 111 wRC+, and Ezequiel Duran 109 wRC+. The Guardians are led by Travis Bazzana 119 wRC+, Chase DeLauter 111 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio 107 wRC+ and Kyle Manzardo 101 wRC+. Small sample size, but Kahlil Watson has a 112 wRC+ this year so far.
This would be the ideal time for the bats to come alive for Cleveland. How do you see the series going? Let us know in the comments below
The Cubs went 6-1 on their road trip to New York and Milwaukee, so this weekly review winds up heavy on the “Three up” side.
Hopefully, that continues on the upcoming homestand against the Padres and Cardinals.
Here’s who was hot and not for the Cubs on the road trip.
Three up
Dansby Swanson was a hitting machine in New York
Swanson hit .438/.412/1.188 (7-for-16) in the four-game series against the Mets. (The OBP is lower than the BA because he had a sacrifice fly and no walks.)
Among the seven hits were three home runs, including a grand slam, and he had 15 RBI in the series, which is a record for any team in a four-game set vs. the Mets – and he did it all in the first three games!
Here’s a guy who had an absolutely awful year for a 102-loss team last year (the White Sox). The Phillies used him in one game this year and put him on waivers. The Cubs picked him up and used him as the “bulk guy” Sunday basically because they didn’t have anyone else.
He came through with 4.1 shutout innings. Which matched a Hall of Famer’s performance for the Cubs:
From @sportradar: Bryse Wilson and Fergie Jenkins are the only #Cubs in the modern era to have 4+ IP in relief with 0 runs allowed and 0 walks in their team debut. @WatchMarquee
Amazing. Well done, Bryse. Hopefully he can continue to contribute to the Cubs this year.
David Peterson’s Cubs debut was a success
… although his first Cubs pitch wasn’t. It was hit for a home run by Jackson Chourio.
After that, though, Peterson was lock-down. 5.2 innings, only four other hits and one more run, no walks. He’ll definitely benefit from the Cubs infield defense. I’d expect him to go Friday or Saturday against the Cardinals.
Three down
Dansby Swanson was an out machine in Milwaukee
It looked like Swanson was finally coming out of his slump with the big series in New York.
Then he went 0-for-12 with four strikeouts against the Brewers. Granted, he was facing much better pitching in Milwaukee. Still, I hope he can recover his NY form at Wrigley this week.
This is the first time anyone has made both “Three up” and “Three down” in the time I’ve been doing this series.
Alex Bregman: Still cold as ice
While his teammates were having an excellent trip, Bregman batted .091/.250/.136 (2-for-22) in the seven games, with six strikeouts. This month he’s hitting .181/.324/.253 (15-for-83) with four extra-base hits (three doubles and a home run) and 15 strikeouts. The walks at least make the OBP somewhat useful, and he’s still playing excellent defense.
Roberts was very good for most of this season, but on the trip: two innings, four hits, five runs (four earned), three walks, no strikeouts. He nearly blew Sunday’s game before Jordan Wicks (!) locked it down.
Roberts might benefit from a trip to Iowa. For now, at least.
SURPRISE, ARIZONA - MARCH 13, 2026: Nick Becker #5 of the Seattle Mariners looks on during a minor league spring training game against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium on March 13, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Tacoma Rainiers
Serving as a fantastic precursor to the Fourth of July this upcoming weekend, there were plenty of fireworks in an otherwise uninspiring 4-2 series loss for the Rainiers. Featuring one of the more animated brawls we’ve seen in recent years and plenty of homers, Tacoma, despite their losing effort, provided the fans in Salt Lake quite a show.
Here’s a video of the fight from Friday night. If you haven’t seen it yet, it’s worth a watch.
Patrick Wisdom put his money where his mouth was on Friday night and served up Salt Lake pitching with a three-homer game on Saturday afternoon, launching absolute moonshots deep over the outfield fence and taking his sweet time to trot around the bases. Wisdom has utterly destroyed Triple-A pitching this season, and though his time in the majors is far more checkered, he remains a valuable piece to have available for an otherwise lefty-heavy lineup. Hopefully the M’s aren’t forced into a position where they need to call up him up on short notice, but should they need a righthanded masher, he’ll be waiting in the wings.
Arkansas Travelers
Arkansas started the second half off strong with a 5-1 series win over a poor San Antonio squad, crushing their inferior opponent with clean work from their rotation and tons of offensive production up and down the lineup. Comfortably the most prospect-heavy squad in this system, should the M’s choose to keep this roster in tact for the bulk of the second half, it seems likely they’ll be in the thick of contention for a playoff spot.
Michael Arroyo has really rounded into form the past month. After a slower start to the season with good-not-great results offensively, Arroyo has kicked it up a notch in the month of June and looks much like his old self once again. With just one game left to play in the month of June, Arroyo struck out just nine times on the month and is hitting .321, carrying a strong OPS of .952. Despite his suppressed number earlier this season, there wasn’t a whole lot under the hood that was cause for concern with Arroyo, and given his superior polish offensively, to see Arroyo producing at his usual level is far closer to a formality than a surprise. Look for this hot hitting to continue; Arroyo, still just 21 years old, is the most advanced hitting prospect in the entire system and has a shot to crack the big leagues late this season.
💪Michael Arroyo con su octavo cuadrangular en Doble A.
El prospecto de @mariners sigue encendido en el mes de junio con 23 hits, 7 extra bases, 12 impulsadas para un promedio de .324 y OPS de .785.pic.twitter.com/Jdqw0SkM1Q
— Peloteros de Colombia ⚾️🇨🇴 (@PeloterosCol) June 27, 2026
With talks of a potential “super ‘pen” officially entering the zeitgeist, both Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan made compelling arguments for a big league audition this past weekend. Anderson, who worked Friday’s game, was again phenomenal, striking out nine in five innings of two run ball. His scoreless streak of over 28 innings did come to an end, but he moved into second place on the minor league strikeout rankings (one behind Seth Hernandez) and is currently leading minor league baseball in K-BB percentage. Sloan, who allowed only one run, also struck out nine batters and has now posted back-to-back months with an ERA in the mid three’s. He’s also got premium command of the zone, walking just two batters all month. Frankly, there isn’t a tandem of arms in minor league baseball that can rival these two, and should they get a chance at the big leagues this season, they’ll be more than ready to put their best foot forward and help get this team to the postseason.
Everett AquaSox
The Frogs split their weekly series yet again, drawing 3-3 against the always tough Eugene squad on the road. With promotions expected at some point in the next few weeks (post-draft feels like the absolute longest they’ll wait), there’s a few potential reinforcements that could really help this team in the second half. Hopefully they’re able to hang on until that point and make a run in the second half.
It’s been a major bounce back season for Josh Caron in 2026. After a disappointing first year in 2025, Caron repeated in Everett and has looked much more comfortable at the plate, getting to his tremendous power regularly and improving his OBP skills. He’s even tacked on 15 stolen bases on the year, a rather surprising total for a backstop that’s not necessarily known for his footspeed. Caron whiffs a lot (31% K%) and will need to continue producing major power numbers in order to make the profile tenable, but given his premium defensive positioning, the bat doesn’t have to be quite as good as it otherwise would elsewhere on the diamond. A trial run at Arkansas seems like a worthwhile endeavor for the 22 year old that’s spent the last year and a half in the PNW with Everett.
Picking up where they left off last night as Josh Caron crushes a hanging breaking ball for a 2-run HR. Game tied at 7. pic.twitter.com/hgylia5u5m
In a similar vein as Caron, outfielder Carlos Jimenez has put together a really nice year after a solid, yet unspectacular 2025 season. Featuring a smooth lefty swing, Jimenez raised his OPS up to .884 this week, ultimately capping a monstrous month of June that saw him fueling a considerable part of this team’s offensive output. Logging an OPS of 1.026 on the month, Jimenez is both platoon and ballpark neutral in his splits (Everett’s stadium is very hitter friendly, but he actually hits better on the road), a sign that bodes incredibly well for his future chances as he ascends up the ladder. He doesn’t possess an overwhelming amount of pop in his bat, but as a steady producer for a few years now, Jimenez should get a shot to prove himself against Double-A competition.
Inland Empire 66ers
The 66ers split the series against San Jose this week, losing the potential series clincher on Sunday in extras. Inland Empire should be getting a handful of new players for the second half (Nick Becker would likely headline that group) and could ultimately turn things around with that injection of talent, but until that happens, they’ll have to find a way to string some wins together.
Now unfortunately on injury watch, star lefthander Mason Peters has now been skipped over in the rotation two weeks in a row. Peters had not missed a start prior to this and has already surpassed his inning total from last season at DBU, but it seems unlikely the M’s would opt to simply sit him for a two week period if nothing was wrong with him physically. Hopefully this is just a scheduled rest period (he’s not been put on the IL) and not something that sidelines him long term.
Scott Rouse was very good today. Final line: 4IP, 4H, 1R, 3BB, 6K, 74 pitches, 51 strikes. ERA at 0.27 in 33 innings. pic.twitter.com/r9iukn0UZp
Righthander Scott Rouse, who joined the team in mid-May, surrendered his first run this past week, breaking what was a scoreless streak of 30 innings to start his professional career. The low-slot righty has a low 90’s fastball with good sink and run as well as an interesting changeup, and he’s used that arsenal to retire hitters at an unreal clip. He’s a bit older for the level (currently 24) and should probably be testing out the waters in High-A, but he’s had an undeniably fantastic start to his time in the Mariners organization.
ACL Mariners
Stud shortstop Nick Becker continues to rake in the ACL and is looking more and more like a game-changing talent on the dirt. Showing off his blazing speed on the basepaths with regularity, the 6’4 Becker is getting to more power in game action and has raised his season OPS to .962. The key for Becker, as is for most prep draftees, is the hit tool; if he’s able to make enough contact as he ascends up the minor league ranks, there’s not a lot he can’t do on the diamond. Still an unfinished product, Becker’s development should be one of the more interesting progressions to monitor as the second half of the season continues.
DSL Mariners
Gregory Pio continues to look like the best talent on this team. Still holding his season OPS north of 1.000, Pio has been manning centerfield and continues to dominate opposing pitchers at the plate. With as many walks as strikeouts, the young Pio already has 10 stolen bases on the year and is batting a cool .342 through his first 19 games. Reading into such a small sample size (particularly at the DSL level) is often a futile exercise, but Pio, who comes with considerable prospect pedigree, has done little to suggest he’s not the real deal. Look for him to ascend up prospect rankings come midseason.
COVERS INTEL:
Yordan Alvarez
Pete Alonso
