Category: Baseball

David Stearns and the Mets' front office will have a lot on their plate this offseason as they look to turn the club from a massively disappointing 74-88 team into a playoff contender.

There are plenty examples of quick turnarounds recently, including the 2026 White Sox (60-102 in 2025 to 84-78 and in the playoffs), 2023 Rangers (68-94 in 2022 to 90-72 and World Series champs), and 2013 Red Sox (69-93 in 2012 to 97-65 and World Series champs).

So New York's task, while difficult, is not as daunting as it may seem.

What will help is that the Mets, who went 39-38 from June 30 through the end of the season after a disastrous start derailed their playoff hopes, should have a very strong returning core that includes Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette (who seems likely to opt in to his contract for 2027), and young building blocks Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, A.J. Ewing, and Christian Scott.

As the Mets start moving and shaking, they -- and the other 29 teams -- will likely be facing a truncated calendar due to the expected lockout that is set to begin on Dec. 1.

With the offseason kicking into high gear five days after the World Series ends, things will open up any time between Nov. 1 and Nov. 5.

Here's what the Mets' top priorities should be...

5. Target players who want the New York market

In his end-of-season news conference, Stearns was asked if some players struggle to play in New York.

"I think the answer is yes," he said. "I think this is a unique place to play, and it's different here. I've lived it as a fan and as an executive. When you win here, it is the greatest thing in the world. As a fan and as an executive, there is nothing like coming to this ballpark in a playoff atmosphere and experiencing that. It's equally extreme when things aren't going well, and I do think certain players struggle with that. And I'm cognizant of that."

Following an offseason where the Mets let proven New York performer Pete Alonso walk in free agency, Bichette struggled badly over the first few months of the 2026 season and Freddy Peralta performed well below expectations.

This isn't to say that Bichette failed early and Peralta never found it at all simply because of the pressure of New York. But it was certainly a factor.

Not that it wasn't a consideration before, but targeting players who want to play in (and can handle) the highly pressurized New York market should be even more of a priority now.

4. Explore trade scenarios

Soon after New York's trade deadline sell-off in August, Stearns wasn't shy when suggesting that some of the prospects the team acquired could be flipped in the short-term in order to help fill other holes.

While the Mets' farm system isn't quite as deep as it was a year ago, due in part to Benge, McLean, and Ewing no longer being prospects, they still possess a number of top 100-ish players who could theoretically help headline a deal for an impact player.

There hasn't been much buzz yet regarding which players other teams might make available this offseason, but Tampa Bay Rays ace Drew Rasmussen ($20 million team option for 2027 in his last year before free agency) and some of the Mariners' starting pitchers (given their glut of rotation options) could be available.

As far as who the Mets could deal in a search for impact talent, it's conceivable that they would be open to parting with one of their infield prospects -- given their depth in that area.

New York also has a few trade candidates of its own, potentially including Kodai Senga and Mark Vientos.

3. Add a legitimate first base option

If Bichette opts in as expected, the Mets will be covered on the left side of the infield, all three outfield spots, and catcher. Second base is to-be-determined, but top prospects Jefferson Rojas and Mitch Voit are among the in-house options if things continue to go sideways with Marcus Semien. Brett Baty could also find himself at second.

That would leave first base and/or designated hitter as the main avenue to improve the offense.

Jared Young became New York's primary first baseman in 2026 and did relatively well, posting a .759 OPS. But he does not hit for much power (just nine home runs in 103 games this past season) and struggles against left-handed pitching.

While Young could be part of a platoon at first base with a to-be-determined right-handed hitter, the Mets should be aiming higher. Specifically, they should be seeking a full-time first baseman who can profile in the middle of the lineup.

That player might not exist on the MLB free agent market, but star Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato is expected to be posted. If the Mets aren't sold on Sato as an answer at first base, it might leave the trade market as their best option when it comes to addressing the position.

2. Don't be driven by bounce backs and what-ifs

Heading into 2026, the Mets were banking on too much uncertainty.

They were hoping for bounce backs from Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and Mark Vientos, as well as relative health from Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr. -- two players who had checkered injury pasts.

Nearly all of that blew up in New York's face, helping to create the "uncapped downside scenario" Stearns referenced after the season.

Heading into 2027, there has to be a much smaller reliance on bounce backs and what-ifs. That means jumping in the deeper end of free agency for players who should be more reliable.

It also means Polanco should be viewed as a non-entity until/unless he's healthy and performing, Semien should be replaced at second base if his struggles continue, and Manaea should be looked at as one of many rotation options instead of a key cog.

Stearns already took a step in the above direction when he made it clear that nothing would be guaranteed to Semien entering the season.

1. Properly address the starting rotation

It can be argued that the Mets left their rotation one legitimate starting pitcher short each of the last two seasons.

In 2025, things began to crumble because of a lack of rotation options, resulting in Chris Devenski, Justin Hagenman, Blade Tidwell, and a small village of openers starting games. Beyond that, Jonah Tong was called up before he was ready because the team had basically run out of arms.

In 2026, the rotation was a huge issue again due to the early struggles of Senga and Peterson, Manaea being relegated to the bullpen because of his own difficulties and velocity issues, and a freak injury to Clay Holmes that the team had no answer for.

This time around, the rotation needs to be properly fortified, which should mean adding two new members to the starting five (or starting six).

McLean and Scott are locks, but things are uncertain beyond that. Zac Thornton is an option, Manaea could be an answer at the back end, and Tong has been tasked with pitching so well that he forces himself into the conversation.

As far as who the external targets should be?

Tarik Skubal will be a free agent and won't be attached to a qualifying offer. If there's any time for Stearns to go big for an elite starting pitcher, it's now. If the Mets prefer to go a tier below Skubal, Michael King could be a nice fit. They could also explore a reunion with Holmes. 

Either way, the goal has to be a top end starter and someone who can fit in the middle or back of the rotation.

Rico Garcia is everything that’s right with baseball. At 5-foot-9, he certainly doesn’t have the physical appearance of a hard-throwing, major league reliever. And coming into this season, the back of his baseball card looked more like a guy hanging onto the fringes of a 40-man roster for dear life than someone leading one of the league’s better bullpens. But now, coming off of a career-best campaign at age 32, he might be headed for the first offseason of his professional life where he can feel pretty confident that he is making the Opening Day roster at the other end of it.

Coming into 2026, Garcia had appeared in 59 total major league games, spread across five seasons and seven different franchises. That included two stops in Baltimore. The first came back in 2022, when he pitched in six games for the big league squad, but spent most of the season down on the farm. He would be released after that season and then bounce around the league again until landing back with the O’s near the end of the 2025 campaign.

Garcia’s showing in 2025 with the Orioles laid the groundwork for the success to come for him in 2026. Over 20 total appearances last season he had a 2.84 ERA while striking out 20 over 19 innings. Some of the peripherals weren’t great. For example, he also had 1.421 WHIP and 4.03 FIP while leaving an unsustainable 92.1% of runners on base. But it was enough to give him an edge in the bullpen competition that played out back in the spring.

The diminutive righty was dominant down in the Grapefruit League. He worked 5.2 innings in which he never gave up a hit, walked just one, and struck out seven. He made the Opening Day squad with ease, and would end being the most dependable member of the group.

Garcia’s 75 appearances and 67 innings led all Orioles relievers, as did his 19 holds and 68 strikeouts. He also ranked second on the team in saves (10), behind only Andrew Kittredge (11), and ahead of Ryan Helseley (8).

This time around, the secondary numbers largely supported the top line metrics. His 3.09 ERA was slightly worse than his 2.92 xERA, though still quite a bit better than his 3.89 FIP/3.77 xFIP. He left a more reasonable 75.4% of runners on base. And he had a decent strikeout (9.13 K/9) and walk (2.96 BB/9) numbers.

These “good, not great” numbers feel like a fair reflection of a season that saw Garcia oscillate between elite reliever early on, to walking disaster midway through the year, before finally settling late as a nice, solid bullpen option.

His month-by-month ERAs paint a clear picture: 0.66, 0.77, 6.97, 4.91, 3.75, and 2.16. Home runs were an issue for him in June and July. He gave up nine long balls all season, eight of them came in that two-month span. Those were worrying times for Garcia, as home runs had sunk him before in his career, and it was entirely possible that a reliever, the most fickle of all MLB players, could be spiraling out of usefulness.

Instead, Garcia got back to work. He didn’t allow a home run over his final 25 appearances, and gave up a run of any kind in only three of those games. His ERA didn’t move much due to one implosion on August 10, where he allowed four runs without recording an out, but his FIP dove from 4.47 on July 29 to 3.85 at season’s end.

Garcia’s pitch mix was tweaked quite a bit as the season wore on. Early in the year, he led with his four-seamer (38.5% of all pitches in March/April), followed with the slider (24.7%), then the change up (21.8%), and finally his curveball (14.9%). But in September he had almost flipped that on its head. His curveball (40%) became his most-used pitch, followed by the change (32%), then the fastball (22.4%), and at the very bottom was his slider (5.6%).

That change in approach did come with fewer strikeouts. His K rate dropped from 32.6% in the season’s first month down to 24.2% in September. But he actually got more chases and more swing and miss than before. Exit velocities also dipped from their June high of 89.8 mph down to 80.3 in August, before jumping back up in September.

It’s not easy for any major leaguer to make such dramatic in-season adjustments and see success, let alone a 32-year-old that had finally found some big league footing after a decade of clawing his way up the professional ranks. The fact that Garcia was able to make tweaks is a positive reflection of his work ethic and determination, as well as the organization’s ability to make the most out of relief arms they get their hands on.

As a group, the Orioles bullpen was pretty good in 2026. They finished with 5.8 fWAR overall, which was sixth in MLB, and that is while throwing the fourth-fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball, so this was not an accumulation thing. The group limited walks and home runs, and the organization was willing to cycle arms in and out as needed.

The unit goes into this offseason in pretty good shape. Félix Bautista got back at the very end of the season, and is expected back in the mix following what will hopefully be a healthy winter. Helsley has a player option for ‘27 that he is probably going to pick up following an injury-plagued campaign. If he is 100% come spring, that gives the O’s two proven, but physically questionable, vets for the late innings. Yennier Cano had a nice bounce-back year and signed an extension midseason. He should be back. And optionable and projectable arms in Anthony Nunez, Alex Hoppe, and Grant Wolfram give the unit some flexibility.

Garcia is a late-bloomer at 32 years old. He won’t be arbitration eligible until next offseason, and is not set for free agency until after the 2030 season. He has no options, but that should not be be a problem given the makeup of the relief corps laid out above. Unless the Orioles get blown away with a trade offer, they have no incentive to move Garcia after a rock solid campaign. He has shown an ability to get big outs, close games, and make adjustments. That’s an arm you want in your bullpen moving forward.

(Of course, pending the existence of a 2027 season, after all…)

Alex Anthopoulos said a whole lotta nothing in his latest presser, though this isn’t really surprising considering A) his approach to press is “how do I divulge as little information as possible in as much time as possible” and B) the Braves haven’t done their post-season debriefs yet, so I’m not sure what there is to say, or why this presser even existed at this time.

Anyway, one of the things that did come out was that Didier Fuentes’ role was probably not going to be locked into “high leverage fireman” the way things played out in 2026. It was basically a season ago, but Fuentes didn’t actually start out being a pure-play reliever in 2026: he made the Opening Day roster, pitched a four-inning mop-up appearance following a Grant Holmes start (in the Braves’ first loss of the year), then went down and made three starts at Triple-A, then came up and had a three-inning start against the Nationals (7/1 K/BB ratio, but a homer allowed), and then settled into a high leverage multi-inning relief role afterwards. Actually, settled into is not great diction: he was pretty much thrown right into it. His first full-time relieving month was May, and by leverage, his 11 outings went:

• almost high
• high
• low
• almost medium
• high
• garbage time
• almost medium
• almost medium
• almost high
• high
• almost medium

He finished that month second to Robert Suarez in average leverage when entering a game, though he took a step back on the totem pole a bit after that, until the post-Trade Deadline stretch run.

He also provided decent length. From May-on, after his dalliance with starting, 19 of his relief appearances were multi-inning — basically a third (37 outings of one inning or less). Add those up, and from May-onward, Fuentes:

• Finished tenth in innings pitched among relievers
• Finished 17th in batters faced among relievers
• Finished tenth in fWAR among relievers (one of only three non-dedicated closers in the top ten)
• Put up a 50/62/70 line, which was good for 22nd/20th/16th respectively among the 160 relievers with the most innings in that May-onward span.

But, just because of that demonstrated success doesn’t mean he’s definitely pigeonholed as a fireman from here on out. Similar production, or slightly worse production, over more innings would be of even bigger benefit to the club. At minimum, the Braves could try it, and move him back into a fireman role if they feel that’s warranted.

That said, I do think the Braves will give him a fair bit of rope as a starter for two dovetailing reasons. First, the Braves are not fans of engaging in the increasingly-bloated starting pitching market. Yes, there’s uncertainty about what the new Collective Bargaining Agreement does to the free agent market, but it’s hard to speculate what that’ll mean for the team’s approach, so I’m setting that aside. If the Braves have a goal of “go into Spring Training 2027 with n starter-ish guys,” then I fully anticipate them penciling Fuentes in as one of the n, reducing the need to go outside the organization by one guy. On the flip side, the Braves have had almost no compunction about spending on relievers, so if moving Fuentes to the “presumptive starter” column means they need to sign another reliever, including one that could be a good fireman (David Bednar, Jonathan Loiasiga, Adrian Morejon immediately come to mind), I can see that.

Anyway, I’ve blathered enough that it’s now 8:55 am and this post goes up at 9am, so have at it.

Good morning.

Remember Austin Wynns? Shawn McFarland didn’t when recapping the season behind the dish for the Texas Rangers in 2026 where mid-year addition Elias Diaz was pretty much the lone bright spot.

Jonathan Mayo writes about right-handed Rangers prospect Jacob Johnson working on his repertoire at the Arizona Fall League.

And, MLB Pipeline’s Jesse Borek places Rangers outfield prospect Paxton Kling on the first week All-AFL team, a team that also includes former Rangers prospect Tekoah Roby.

Have a nice day!

The ALCS starts tonight… and the Guardians are in it!

We reviewed the ALDS and previewed the ALCS last night on the Disgusting Baseball Podcast. It was a fun conversation with five great Guardians fans/analysts.

Zack Meisel has a review of how the Guardians got to the ALCS here, and a preview of the ALCS here. Staff predictions everywhere have the Rays as the heavy favorite, which only makes sense. The Rays have been a much better baseball team all year. Let’s see if that changes or not at 8PM ET tonight.

The Brewers beat the Dodgers 2-1 in game 1 of the NLCS. Game two is today at 5PM ET.

Meet the Mets

Mark Feinsand listed the Mets as a potential suitor for free agent Alec Bohm. Sorry, I don’t make the news, I just report it.

If you really want to consume vaguey-Mets-y content, the Mets uploaded a video that is one hour of silence occasionally broken up by Bartolo Colon hitting a home run.

Around the National League East

They won the NL East, but the Braves aren’t exactly what you would call a full and complete team, and Alex Antopoulos is going to have some work to do in and around the margins.

If there is one thing for the Nationals, and most teams, to take away from the playoffs, it’s that you don’t need a massive payroll to get far into October.

Around Major League Baseball

Game One of the 2026 National League Championship Series goes to the Milwaukee Brewers by a 2-1 score.

In the second game, the Dodgers will turn to playoff terminator Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which has worked out pretty well for them in the past.

The other half of the Championship Series kicks off in the American League as Foster Griffin and Drew Rasmussen take the mound for the Guardians and Rays, respectively.

Earning his second career win in the postseason, D.L. Hall has tied the all-time Brewers record.

To mark the start of the NLCS, Fox debuted a new scorebug and graphics package.

Though they are now up 1-0 in the series over the Dodgers, nobody really knew whether the Brewers or the Dodgers were the better bet to win. Well, maybe they still don’t.

The Yankees lost in the playoffs, the Yankees have a new group of Baby Bombers to hope for a better future with. The cycle continues.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 2015, we wanted Utley.

Alex Anthopoulos made his end of year comments on Sunday, speaking on many different topics from the 2026 season. Per usual, there was not much in terms of specific focuses or future actions given away. However, Anthopoulos did speak on some names. This includes the lack of reliability moving forward on names such as Spencer Schwellenbach or Spencer Strider when it comes to the 2027 season. But also, there is a good chance Didier Fuentes will get a chance to start in 2027. And as Mark Bowman notes, Anthopoulos also had plenty of positive things to say about many of the Braves pending free agents.

Braves News

Among other notable Braves prospects, Tate Southisene made his debut on Sunday in the Arizona Fall League.

MLB News

Many wondered how this year would be different compared to the Dodgers dominating the Brewers in the 2025 playoffs. Well, one different factor is an even more dominant Brewers bullpen. They starred in a 2-1 victory over the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS.

Good morning. This is written before the end of last night’s Game 1 of the National League Championship Series, so there’s nothing on how that game turned out. I assume you know who won by now.

Also, before we start (Bluesky link):

• Will Leitch has the storylines for the NLCS.
• Zach Sween has four factors that will decide who wins the NLCS.
• Dan Szymborski has an NLCS preview. (Fangraphs paywall)
• Grant Brisbee ranks all four teams left in the postseason. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• David Schoenfield also ranks the four remaining teams. His rankings are the same as Brisbee’s. Probably you too.
• Manny Randhawa ranks the starting rotations of the remaining four teams.
• Andy McCullough and Stephen J. Nesbitt look at the payrolls of the four remaining teams.The Athletic sub. req.) It’s three low-payroll teams and the Dodgers.
• Jesse Yomtov and Bob Nightengale have the final team payrolls for all 30 teams. The number one team missed the playoffs The number 30 team is still alive.
• Sarah Langs has six “incredible” stats from the Guardians’ Game 5 win over the White Sox.
• Davy Andrews breaks down that huge Guardians win. (Fangraphs paywall)
• Adam Berry looks back at the lopsided trade that send superstar Junior Caminero from the Guardians to the Rays in 2021. That trade really has the potential to haunt the Guardians now.
• Cody Stavenhagen writes that the White Sox have proven they’re no joke, (The Athletic sub. req.) but that doesn’t make losing the American League Division Series hurt any less.
• Mike Axisa looks at some trends in the playoffs this year, including disappearing offense.
• Predictions for the ALCS and NLCS.
• Tim Crowley argues that the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is approaching its nadir.
• Jordan Schusterman asks what went wrong with the Yankees?
• Mark Polishuk wonders if Giancarlo Stanton’s days with the Yankees are over.
• Mark Feinsand looks at the market for free agent Jazz Chisholm Jr.
• Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray is a potential free agent this winter and despite earlier talk about retirement, Gray says he wants to pitch in 2027 and is open to staying in Boston.
• Here’s a list of all the free agents this winter. Lot of 2026 Cubs on that list.
• Aiden Stepansky asks if NPB Triple Crown-winner Teruaki Sato will make the leap to MLB this winter.
• Todd Zolecki has five questions this winter for the Phillies.
• Jeff Passan reports that Phillies president of business operations Sam Fuld has turned down an offer to be the new president of baseball operations for the Athletics. Fuld will stay in his current role with Philadelphia.
• Ryan Divish has an update on the Mariners’ managerial search.
• Brendan Gawlowski has a scouting report on several players from the Arizona Fall League. No Cubs, in case you were wondering.
• A FAQ about the collective bargaining talks this winter.
• And finally, Scott Simon weighs in on the ethical dilemma of whether or not you have to give a foul ball to a kid.

As the league championship series get underway, there isn’t a whole lot of news out of the Detroit Tigers. Minor league reliever Tanner Rainey elected free agency last week. The Tigers parted ways with first base coach Anthony Sanders and assistant pitching coach Juan Nieves, following in the steps of Joey Cora, who was replaced by new third base Billy Boyer in the middle of the season. AJ Hinch’s coaching staff is going through an overhaul, and after his comments in the end of the season presser about playing a different style of baseball with all the young players who arrived this season, picking the right coaches will be part of that.

The Tigers finally started stealing bases in September. With speed players like Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, Ben Malgeri, and other hopefuls like Brett Callahan and John Peck in the fold, the opportunities to run a lot more are there. We’ll have to wait to see if a revised coaching staff, particularly at first base, can help them capitalize on the upgraded speed and contact ability in the lineup.

The only other real notable news is top outfield prospect Zyhir Hope’s nice start to the Arizona Fall League season. The power hasn’t shown up yet, but the 21-year-old left-handed hitting right fielder is hitting .294 early on. Hope has walked five times against six strikeouts, and looks very comfortable at the plate. He just hasn’t crushed anything through 22 plate appearances.

On the other side of things early on is infielder John Peck, who is hitting just .059 through 19 plate appearances with seven strikeouts. Obviously it’s quite early, but Peck is one of the more experienced hitters out there and should thrive with time. Meanwhile, Bryce Rainer has only appeared in three games and hasn’t done a whole lot either. He does have a double and a walk, and hasn’t struck out yet. We’ll take that as a positive as cutting down the strikeouts is the big thing standing between Rainer and a rapid run to the major leagues in the next year or two.

Hard throwing right-hander Jalen Evans, an unaffiliated free agent reliever signed this year to a minor league deal, struck out two in his sole inning of work. Evans is 28 years old already, but he does have a high-90’s fastball and a quality breaking ball to boot. The Tigers have tried to find some high powered relief arms on the waiver wire or in minor league free agency to try and develop more options for a their seriously weak relief core. Maybe Evans can find a place in the pen next year, but he’s very much a longshot, as are fellow hard throwing right-handers Yilber Diaz, Moises Rodriguez, and Yuniel Curet.

• Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Atlanta Braves were interested in Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline, but refused to consider 21-year-old right-hander Didier Fuentes in a trade. In other words, we wanted to pretend we were involved to our fans, but weren’t remotely serious.
• Katrina Stebbins at Motor City Bengals looked at a proposed Tigers trade for Bryce Harper, but hell naw. Bryce Rainer, Kash Mayfield, and Cameron Flukey to take on that contract? Pass. Stebbins concludes the same. Let’s trade for Jhoan Duran’s last year before free agency instead and call it a day.
• In other bad proposal news, Mark Feinsand for MLB.com mentions the Tigers as a possible landing spot for second baseman Jazz Chisholm. I like Jazz. Pretty good player and has some edge this clubhouse sometimes seems to lack. However, just about the last thing we need is more left-handed hitters or second baseman. Rejected.

MLB News

• Adam Zimmer at Brew Crew Ball came out with an amusing Haters Guide to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. Don’t sweat it Adam, we’re all behind the Brew Crew at this point.
• David Laurila’s Sunday Notes for FanGraphs is generally required reading for the occasional tidbit of key news and analysis. There’s nothing on the Tigers this time around.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. underwent laser corrective surgery on his vision last week. Blue Jays fans will be happy to hear that after a brutal year by the young slugger’s standards.
• Eric Fisher from Front Office Sports examined what MLB’s new proposals to the MLBPA would actually look like if they played out.
• Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times considered candidates to take over as Seattle Mariners’ manager next season.
• Just Baseball took their own crack at year end MLB awards.

Long time major leaguer Justin Turner had thoughts on the trend toward hitting gurus selling one particular move or pattern, emphasizing timing and optimizing your own swing rather than everyone trying to jump on a trend.

I don’t have all the answers but I love baseball because of the ups and downs and constant grind. So here’s some thoughts for the “X hitting” war that is going on right now. pic.twitter.com/B2BHXkKzx8

— Justin Turner (@redturn2) October 10, 2026

JJ Cooper of Baseball America pointed out prior to this season that prospects were running through the minor leagues faster than ever. Seems to have only gotten faster this season.

You aren't imagining it. Players are as a whole moving through the minors to the big leagues faster than before.

It's not just a few notable stars.https://t.co/V2ApkB5FJGpic.twitter.com/Bw2pxBTD7N

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) February 24, 2026

Good morning, baseball fans!

The 2026 MLB Playoffs continue Monday and Tuesday, this time with the NLCS and ALCS.

Fortunately for me, but unfortunately for you, today is a holiday so I’m pre-writing this a little farther in the past than usual. Which means that the ALDS has not actually concluded for me. So I have no idea which team made it into the championship series. But you do! Lucky you!

With that said, here’s what’s on deck for today and tomorrow:

Monday

First up, the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers, who we are all rooting for, as we established yesterday. This game will start at 2:00 p.m. PT, broadcasting on Fox/Fox Sports 1 with national radio coverage available on ESPN Radio.

After that, whoever won the ALDS over the weekend (so either the Cleveland Guardians or Chicago White Sox) will head to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rays at 5:00 p.m. PT. This game will be broadcast on TBS/HBO Max, with national radio coverage available on ESPN Radio.

Tuesday

The ALDS will continue at 5:00 p.m. PT, still in Tampa Bay. This game will have the same broadcast information as the first one.

Who are we rooting for in these games (aside from the Brewers)?

I turned to my brother Sunday morning when I remembered to look at the pitching matchup for Game 1 of the National League Championship Series. There it was: Tarik Skubal vs Jacob Misiorowski. A two-time Cy Young Award winning southpaw facing the pre-eminent flamethrower in perhaps the history of baseball who’s also the presumptive 2026 NL Cy Young Award winner. “This could be a good old heavyweight slobberknocker,” I remarked.

And if all you looked at was the final score of Sunday night’s game, you’d think the two aces lived up to that billing. But the real story, as could kind of be predicted given baseball’s drift away from starting pitchers going deep into games, was the bullpens for both teams. Neither Skubal (5 IP) nor the Miz (4.1) recorded an out in the sixth inning, so both teams deployed their ‘pens to cover a lot of outs in Game 1.

NLCS Game 1

Milwaukee Brewers 2, Los Angeles Dodgers 1

(MIL leads, 1-0)

The Dodgers, looking to steal home-field advantage, struck first Sunday night. But they left a lot of meat on the bone that would have helped them quite a bit.

In the top of the second, Andy Pages, who delivered a key blow to eliminate Atlanta in the NLDS, singled in the game’s first run. Kyle Tucker then walked to load the bases for Kiké Hernández, who had an opportunity to really put Misiorowski and the Brewers behind the 8-ball. Instead, Hernández hit a ball to shortstop that the Brewers’ infield turned into a 6-4-3 double play, extinguishing the threat.

It was one of three twin killings that the Dodgers bounced into in Game 1 as they stranded nine with just the aforementioned Pages single as their own hit with a runner in scoring position.

From there, the Miz settled in for a couple innings, while Skubal kept Milwaukee off the scoreboard. Finally, leading off the home fourth, Brice Turang got Milwaukee on the board. After working himself ahead in the count, Turang demolished a sinker Skubal buried down and in and drove it out to left-center field. Turning around 96-mph is impressive. Having the power to drive that pitch out, facing arguably the toughest lefty in baseball, is even more eyebrow-raising. And it’s not like Turang is a lefty killer, either. For the season, he slugged .313 off southpaws, with a total of three home runs. He chose an excellent time for his fourth.

On the mound, Misiorowski was laboring. The Dodgers worked him hard and, after walking Mookie Betts with one out in the fifth, he was sitting at 94 pitches. Since mid-July, he’d only exceeded that pitch count twice so it was no real surprise when manager Pat Murphy came to collect his ace. Milwaukee’s bullpen was now on the clock. DL Hall was the first one out and he quickly erased Betts and escaped the inning, getting Freddie Freeman to hit into a double play. (You hate to see it.)

In the home fifth, an unlikely hero came through for the Brewers. With a runner on second and one out, Luis Lara singled, scoring the second Brewers’ run of the night and giving them their first lead of the game.

Skubal got through the fifth but that was it for the Dodgers’ prize trade acquisition. LA too turned to a steady stream of relievers. Both teams’ pitchers were up to the task. Three Dodgers combined to hold Milwaukee out of the run column, keeping LA’s deficit at one.

Meanwhile, three Brewers relievers combined to cover 3.2 innings, highlighted by Aaron Ashby’s scoreless seventh and eighth, before turning the game over to closer Trevor Megill. En route to 30 saves in the regular season, Megill cut down on his free passes, ending the year with a career-best 2.2 BB/9. So, of course, after getting two quick outs, Megill walked a pair, putting the go-ahead run on base for Betts.

Mookie took Megill for a ride, driving a ball to center field. The ball sent Garrett Mitchell back onto the warning track but the ball settled harmlessly into his glove to end Game 1, giving the Brew Crew a 1-0 series lead.

For what it’s worth, the team that wins Game 1 in a best-of-seven series in baseball history has gone on to win the series more than 64 percent of the time (127-70). The Brewers are also halfway to protecting home-field advantage, and they’ve already fared better against the mighty Dodgers than they did last year’s NLCS sweep.

The two teams are back at it tomorrow. The Dodgers send playoff superhero Yoshinobu Yamamoto to try for the split in Milwaukee. The Brewers counter with Logan Henderson. First pitch is just after 5pm ET, and Cleveland and Tampa Bay will also kick off the ALCS in the later game (I think I know who we’re all rooting for in that one).

I am going to take a break from my free agent posts to present a trade hypothetical. And I am very careful to call it a hypothetical, because I realize some responses will be “this team will not do that.” I understand. Obviously, I am not asking the Cardinals to make my specific trade, it just is a trade that I think makes sense for both teams. If the other team disagrees with my opinion, well then obviously the trade won’t happen. If the Cardinals disagree, then it won’t happen either. It is fairly likely one or both of those will be the case.

But the response to this uncertainty about what each team actually thinks both about their own player and the player to trade for doesn’t have to be “welp I guess I won’t even try to think of trade scenarios.” First off, trade hypotheticals can be fun. I mean if you’ve ever played fantasy baseball and you’re reasonably involved, you have made trades. You make those trades because you think it improves your team, and improving your team is fun. Same principle, only me proposing a trade doesn’t mean anything will happen.

There’s been a lot of discussion about having a short-term upgrade at both CF and 3B. Scott Plaza talked about this in his most recent article yesterday. Tomorrow, Jake Wood will have a post with several CF solutions. I have proposed JP Crawford as a low cost, one-year solution while the multiple Springfield options spend the year in Memphis. A better player than Crawford who I would love if the Cardinals target, if he’s available, is Steven Kwan.

In case you aren’t a follower of anything AL, which is fair, let me describe Steven Kwan the baseball player. The good news is that it seems unlikely he would be harmed by Busch Stadium at all, because he has no power. The bad news is that he has no power. He was an above average hitter thanks primarily to a good average (in today’s game anyway) and a very high OBP. He had a .067 ISO, and honestly with how low that is, I really don’t think it would actually get worse at Busch Stadium, which means if he duplicated his line, his advanced metrics would say he was a better hitter.

Now to be fair, he did have a career high BB% and OBP and in the case of walk rate, it was a lot higher. This could have been a change of approach from him. He attempted to have some modicum of power, successfully, and it did result in a career high wRC+ and 14 homers. But then his followup season was a below average line and a career low BB%. So maybe in response to that, he went all-in on contact and OBP instead. He had a 13.3 BB% when his previous career high was 9.8%. His average was .282 which is exactly his career average. For you old school heads, that’s equivalent to a .300 average nowadays.

His offense is not a game changer, but his defense is really why you would acquire him. Although I am hesitant to take his 2026 numbers at face value due to a small sample. He was about a +6 OAA left fielder per 1,200 innings and he was quite literally twice as good as that in CF in half those innings. Now, what this means is he’s good enough defensively to be a centerfielder, which for the purposes of the 2027 team, is really all that matters. Elite defense is also on the table, but average would seem to be the floor. Because of his defense, he has been a 3 fWAR player every season of his career.

Maybe I should have started with that? He’d be an enormous upgrade over Nathan Church. Honestly, he’d be an upgrade over the Nathan Church who pans out, most likely. I would love it if Chuch surprised me next season, but he has quite a lot of ground to make up in this comparison, so I would place the odds at about the same odds of the Cardinals winning the World Series next season. If they got Kwan and upgraded the bullpen.

Why would the Cleveland Guardians give up Kwan if he’s so good? Money. They do not spend money. Kwan made $7.7 million last season, which means his contract would fall around $11-12 million next season. Not a big deal for most teams. And it’s entirely possible the Guardians have no problem with Kwan at $12 million. And frankly, they probably don’t. But with the low payroll teams, anybody over $10 million with a year to go is probably available on some level. So I think if you throw the Guardians a good trade, they would accept it. What they consider a good trade might not meet anybody’s asking price of course.

So let’s determine Steven Kwan’s value. Kwan, I said, will get either $11 or $12 million. Since he had a .282 average and .382 OBP AND played CF well, I’d be more inclined to go with the $12 million valuation. It wouldn’t surprise me if it was higher even than that because he had a 98 wRC+ in 2025, so his 2026 price wasn’t best on his best season. A bounceback could result in a slightly higher price.

Let’s call him a 3.5 WAR player. I think that’s fair, considering the reliance on his defense being very good in CF, which his LF career would at least not support. I mean he was a genuinely good defender in LF, but he was legitimately elite last year which would surprise me. I could see how going on the lower end of my arbitration price AND going with a lower WAR than he had last season might seem to a Guardians fan like me trying lower his trading price. I think it wouldn’t move the needle much, but I would also do this with the Cardinals if Kwan was a Cardinal.

As a 3.5 WAR player on a $12 million contract, valued at $10 million per WAR, Kwan would have $23 million in trade value. What this means is that you either need to give the other team a player with the equivalent surplus value considering their contract or the prospects have to be equivalent. Good news: this is just shy of a top 100 prospect, although I’m sure Cleveland will want that.

I don’t think many here would support a prospect approach. I’m guessing the Guardians would demand a top 100 prospect. That wouldn’t make sense for the Cardinals at this time. Sacrificing the future so that they may make the playoffs for the wild card for just one season. But maybe for an established MLB player who has no discernible role on the team given the current roster and what’s coming up? I’m talking about Ivan Herrera. Again, I’m not saying these are realistic, it’s just kind of a fun hypothetical.

I’m not actually going to calculate Herrera’s value. He’s been worth an average of 2 WAR over the past three seasons and in one of those seasons, he got 259 PAs. If you valued him as such, you don’t have to be very good at math to know that’s more than $23 million in surplus value. It’s not clear the Guardians do value him as such and it’s also not clear that’s how he’d be valued across the league, but certainly by the numbers, he would be worth a top 100 prospect. It feels like at least one team should value him as his career 119 wRC+ and maybe there’s a team that values him as a catcher. It only takes one team. Or maybe a team wants to move him to 1B. Really, honestly it takes one team to believe in him offensively. Then you just figure out where to put him. But his previously established offensive standard is at least an average player who you just figure out where to put.

From the Guardian’s standpoint, they did trade for Patrick Bailey, so not totally sure they want him at catcher. But Austin Hedges is reaching free agency and they have shown a willingness to play a below average defensive catcher who they sometimes play at catcher and also play at other positions in the form of David Fry. Who is a worse hitter than Herrera. (And he’ll probably get DFA’d) Or they maybe they would try him at 1B, since Nathaniel Lowe is reaching free agency. I think even the down version of Herrera would be an equal hitter to Kwan and offensively, he has better upside and I would say the betting odds would suggest Herrera will be a better hitter than Kwan.

So on paper, Kwan isn’t a good enough return for Herrera. I think I’m also in a weird position because some of you think the Guardians would want more than Herrera and some of you will think Herrera is too much for one year of an above average player. On paper, he’s not enough, but I know “on paper” works, so how do I pick someone who doesn’t have real value, but is somewhat future-oriented? Some of you will absolutely not like this, but my answer is an older reliever who some team control. Fearing his age will catch up to him at any minute, the Guardians cash out. On the Cardinals’ side, he still could have a few good years, because I think relievers work a little differently. They still decline and age, but I just feel like there are more good old relievers than other positions.

So Matt Festa. He has three years of team control. In the past 2 seasons Guardians have had him, he’s been pretty consistent. 24% K rate, 7% BB rate, roughly expected to be around a high 3.00 ERA and FIP. 1.4 fWAR the last two seasons. He’s not a great reliever, I also don’t really think that’s on the table. But he’d be an improvement in the bullpen. He would have been the 8th inning guy if he was on the Cards last season. Downside: he will be 34 next season. Like I said, I was searching for a value-less guy who might still improve the Cards, and I think an older good reliever is the only way both criteria fit.

Thoughts? Would you be good with this trade? I know it won’t happen.

In the eight years that Mike Elias has been the head of baseball operations for the Orioles, he has been continually trying to find major league-caliber starting pitchers by loading up in bulk on 11th round-or-later draft picks, undrafted free agents, and the recent 3rd-5th round picks that other teams are willing to trade. Until the 2026 season and the surprise emergence of Brandon Young, this effort yielded no positive results to the MLB club. Others from this group will try to follow in Young’s footsteps. The next to get a chance might be Nestor German.

When the Orioles drafted German in the 11th round in 2023, there was absolutely nothing in his college track record that might suggest that Orioles fans would still be interested in the 6’3” righty three years down the road. He pitched three years for Seattle in the Western Athletic Conference, not exactly one of the powerhouse conferences of NCAA baseball. His results were bad: His best ERA in his college career was a 5.97, and he wasn’t firing off the sorts of gaudy strikeout numbers or K/BB ratios that really get you attention.

The Orioles saw something they liked, and German’s 2024 season across both A-ball levels, where he struck out 90 batters in 73.2 innings and pitched to a 1.59 ERA and sub-1 WHIP, showed they were right to believe they could develop him into something much more interesting than his college results suggested.

German followed this up with a 2025 campaign where most of his action was at the Double-A level, where he posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 18 games as a 23-year-old at the level. That’s not “rush this future ace to MLB right now” numbers, but it’s good enough to keep an eye on and see how he does at Triple-A. He entered the season as the #11 prospect in the system in our composite top Orioles prospect ranking, and was in the top 10 in some early-season lists, including at FanGraphs, where they wrote in May:

Like many hurlers in this system, (German is) a downhill thrower with a high slot, above-average extension, and a lot of vertical break on his fastball. He sat 92-94 and touched 98 with it last season while reliably pumping strikes to both sides of the plate. All four of his secondaries missed bats … there are platoon-neutralizing traits here and enough ingredients to get through a lineup multiple times.

This report summarized that for those who believe in his command potential, he has the upside of a #4 starter.

That’s pretty close to what kind of results German got this season. He spent the year in Triple-A Norfolk’s rotation, finishing up with a 4.08 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 24 games. German struck out more than a batter per inning and had a walk rate that neither will make you celebrate nor vomit.

It’s fine. Offense in the minors exploded this season; the overall ERA in the International League was 4.82 and pitchers in the league had a HR/9 of 1.2. German’s numbers look better than a surface glance once taking this into consideration: He only allowed 10 homers in 117 innings. That’s not because he was getting a lot of ground balls, though. He’s a fly ball pitcher. Maybe it was luck, or maybe he was doing something well. That is the thing I will probably be watching the most for German in 2027.

German actually had better Triple-A results this year than Trey Gibson, an undrafted free agent from that same draft year who the Orioles did give a shot at the major league level this year. Gibson entered the season with much more prospect hype than German on the strength of better results at Double-A a year ago, so that’s probably why he was in line to get the chance in May and June.

As a 2023 draft pick out of college, German becomes eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason. The Orioles will have to add him to the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the draft. An on-the-cusp-of-MLB starting pitching prospect who just did fine at Triple-A is the kind of guy you want to protect from the draft, if for no other reason than so you can trade from the depth that he is a part of rather than lose him for nothing.

This should not be a difficult choice for the Orioles. That’s not to say that he has an easy path to major league playing time in the organization. At the MLB level, the O’s are committed for multiple years to Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish, and Young pitched more than well enough to get a rotation spot going into next season. Elias is going to sign or trade for some kind of veteran, because that’s what he does. That leaves one spot for a group that includes a few players who’ve already debuted with the Orioles: Gibson, Luis De León, and Cade Povich. Elias also went out of his way to re-acquire Michael Forret, who ended the season with Norfolk.

The other thing for German – and anybody else who’s at Triple-A – is the wave of pitching prospects who are charging up from beneath. The Double-A rotation at season’s end included Joseph Dzierwa, Caden Hunter, and Anthony Eyanson. Dzierwa should easily open up in Norfolk’s rotation next year and the other two may not be far behind him. It’s a crowded picture, which is exciting for Orioles fans but challenging for the guys who might get squeezed out.

Are people going to get traded? Moved into the bullpen? Elias has not really done either of those things with the pitching prospects that he has brought along close to MLB. German is caught right in the middle of all of this. If there are one or more rotation injuries before next season, he might get a chance early on. If the wave of prospects that’s newer to the organization catches up to him, he might never get the chance. All he can do is keep pitching as well as he can and see what happens. Continuing to pitch like he did in 2026 will probably get him a chance somewhere.

Good morning, Purple Row!

The Championship Series is in full swing and the Brewers are up 1-0 on the Dodgers after last night’s victory. They will remain in Milwaukee for one more game, while the ALDS kicks off in Tampa Bay tonight between the Rays and the Guardians.

The Arizona Fall League is also in full swing, with the Salt River Rafters sitting second behind the Scottsdale Scorpions with a 5-2 record. Over the next few weeks, I’ll bring you interviews from the prospects representing the Rockies. Later this morning, be on the lookout for my interview with Jack O’Dowd.

But in the meantime, here’s what happening with the Rockies and around Major League Baseball:

Rockies News & Links

Five questions Rockies need to address this offseason | MLB.com

The Rockies have a long climb ahead of them if they will be looking to compete anytime soon. Thomas Harding asks five questions that they’ll need to explore to get there:

• How do they prepare a pitching staff for ‘27?
• How do the Rockies go about acquiring pitching?
• Will the Rockies have to disrupt their improving offensive core to improve the pitching?
• Are outfielders clear that defense must improve?
• How about the ninth inning?

Renck: How Pedro Astacio could hold key to improving Rockies’ horrible starting rotation | Denver Post ($)

Paul DePodesta is out to solve the ‘Rubik’s Cube’ that is pitching at Coors Field, and he has turned to a former Rockies pitcher to gain insight: Pedro Astacio. Astacio pitched for the Rockies from 1997 until he was traded to the Houston Astros at the deadline in 2021. He posted a 5.43 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 130 games (129 starts) for the Rockies. Could he have some answers?

How the Colorado Rockies can compete with a new CBA | Mile High Sports

Drew Creasman answers some frequently asked questions, including:

• Rockies Pitching Was TERRIBLE in 2026, are any prospects coming to help?
• With Charlie Condon, and eventually Ethan Holliday knocking on the door, will Kyle Karros be a key part of this team’s future?
• Is the Kris Bryant disaster finally in the rear-view mirror? And was it the worst signing in Rockies history?
• What is the future role for former first-round pick Zac Veen?
• How will these CBA negotiations and potential realignment impact the Colorado Rockies?
• Are Expansion and Divisional Realignment coming to MLB? And how will that impact the Rockies?

Around MLB

Fall League homecoming: Tucson natives take center stage | MLB.com

The Arizona Fall League played a doubleheader at Kino Veterans Memorial Stadium on Saturday, featuring the Mesa Solar Sox, Peoria Javelinas, Scottsdale Scorpions and Salt River Rafters. Last year’s tripleheader was rained out due to remnants of Hurricane Priscilla, and this year’s event nearly suffered the same fate at the hands of Hurricane Rachel — but settled for an earlier start time and 46-minute lightning delay instead. But there were four prospects with local ties to Tucson and the surrounding areas that celebrated homecomings — Mason White (Red Sox), Cade McGee (Cardinals), Brenden Summerhill (Rays) and Demetrio Crisantes (D-backs). Jonathan Mayo caught up with White and McGee about what it meant to play in front of their hometown crowd.

For minority owner Kelce, Ramírez’s Game 5 HR ‘one of the coolest moments of my life’ | MLB.com

The Pope Magic ran out for the Chicago White Sox on Saturday night, but Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was in attendance. Kelce grew up in the Cleveland area and purchased a minority stake in the Guardians in May. Anthony Castrovince caught up with Mr. Taylor Swift about what it meant to watch his childhood team win the ALDS, especially with an extra investment in the team.

The Haters’ Guide to the Los Angeles Dodgers | Brew Crew Ball

Look, many people all hate the Dodgers for one reason or another. For Rockies fans, it’s usually because they’re in the NL West and just dominate every single year. But sometimes it’s fun to see an outsider’s perspective, and Adam Zimmer does a great job of breaking everything down on Brewers our sister site.

The White Sox are no longer a laughingstock. It doesn’t ease the sting of a Game 5 loss | The Athletic ($)

I don’t know about you, but the White Sox do give me hope for the Rockies in the next few years. Cody Stavenhagen chronicles the Sox’ turnaround and their playoff push after losing 100+ games each of the last three years. In the end the young team was just overmatched by the veteran Guardians.

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Jaylon Thompson writes about how the Royals can aggressively upgrade their bullpen.

The Royals still must try to be prudent in fixing their relief unit. And there are big names set to become available after the World Series.

All-Star left-hander Adrian Morejon is one of the best available free agents. Morejon, 28, formed a top-tier duo alongside Mason Miller with the San Diego Padres. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA his last three campaigns as a setup guy.

Another top option is David Bednar. The two-time All-Star posted 35 saves with the New York Yankees and registered a 2.47 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 69 and 1/3 innings.

If the Royals are serious about revamping their bullpen, both pitchers have the ability to significantly bolster the entire unit. “We plan to be aggressive in acquisition,” Picollo said. “I don’t want that to be mistaken for aggressive in payroll.”

Corbin Young at Fangraphs looks at some breakout seasons from hitters, such as Carter Jensen.

In Jensen’s tiny 2025 rookie sample of 69 plate appearances, he teased us with a 14.5% barrel rate per plate appearance and the 6th-highest (105.7 mph) Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) among hitters with 25 batted ball events in 2025. Jensen’s continued to hit the ball hard for barrels (46). That led to a 7.6% barrel rate per plate appearance. Though Jensen’s EV50 fell to 102.1 mph (No. 43), he crushes the ball when he hits it.

Jensen’s underlying exit velocity data supports his home run boost, as a hitter who pulls the ball into the air. For context, Jensen had a 23.1% pulled air rate this season, a couple of points above his career average. If Jensen maintains consistent playing time and power, it’s hard to avoid being excited about him in 2027.

Prospect blogger Tobey Schulman names his Royals all-minor league team.

A 17th round pick in the 2025 draft, Luke Pelzer was another breakout name in the Royals organization. He’d steal the second most amount of bases behind Angeibel Gomez, and finish top-five in the organization with his .337 batting average.

Pelzer would play the majority of his season in High-A, where he stole 28 bases while only getting caught stealing four times. Upon a Double-A promotion, he’d continue to hit for average while limiting strikeouts effectively.

He’s yet another example of a bat that limits whiff very well. It seems like a common trend with the top hitters in this system, especially the breakout ones from the 2025 class.

Philip Ruo at Royals Keep grades Royals outfielders and designated hitters.

A Royals ballpark is just part of downtown’s changing landscape.

Guardians pitchers strike out 21 White Sox hitters to send the team to the ALCS.

How Cleveland’s Travis Bazzana turned his season around.

Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan is out for the remainder of the postseason.

Offense is at a record low in these playoffs so far.

Max Muncy is not scared of the haunted hotel in Milwaukee.

Where do the Yankees go after another disappointing ending?

Could the Yankees part ways with Giancarlo Stanton?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has laser eye surgery.

Phillies exec Sam Fuld turns down an offer to run the Athletics.

Did the Orioles extend the right pitchers?

The Rockies had their worst attendance in over 20 years.

Oklahoma stuns #1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry.

The Arizona Cardinals trade Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Houston Texans.

Girl bands from southeast Asia are rising in popularity.

Retailers are trimming their assortment of products.

Remembering all the fake shows and movies from 30 Rock.

Your song of the day is Greg Freeman with Indu.