Category: Baseball

The Mets (47-66) are back in action tonight as they visit the Guardians (57-56) for a three-game series in Cleveland. Simply put, the Mets are coming off a fire sale that saw them open up five vacancies on their active roster, which was already missing the best hitter in the National League as Juan Soto sits on the injured list with his second calf injury of the season.

Watching the Mets the rest of the way will be an exercise in patience and devotion, as we Mets fans will be hoping to catch some glimpses of a brighter future. The continued development of A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge at the major league level should provide some excitement, and perhaps some of the other younger players who are about to get their shot will establish that they are realistic options for the major league roster heading into next season.

In the meantime, it’s worth appreciating Francisco Lindor, who has been on an absolute tear at the plate since the All-Star break. In 70 plate appearances over that span, he’s hit .295/.366/.574 with a 165 wRC+. He hasn’t been stealing bases, which is understandable since he dealt with a significant calf injury this year, too, but nobody should be surprised that he’s turned around his delayed, slow, and injury-interrupted start to the season. And of course, Lindor established himself as a star in the six seasons he spent in Cleveland. An interesting tidbit is that Lindor’s career 61.8 fWAR and 56.6 bWAR are both split exactly evenly between his time in Cleveland and his time in New York at the time of this writing.

If the Mets are to compete in the next couple of years, they almost certainly need to keep Lindor and Soto on the field. If Lindor stays healthy the rest of this season and Soto actually makes it back into major league games, they’ll still have gotten roughly 55-60 percent of the plate appearances that they would have penciled in for two players who had been among the most durable in the sport before this year.

As for the Guardians, their lineup has been even worse than the Mets’ lineup when it comes to scoring runs. They’ve averaged 3.95 runs per game, which is the second-worst rate in baseball. The Mets are fourth-worst with 4.04 runs scored per game.

Chase DeLauter has been Cleveland’s best hitter with a 124 wRC+ this season, while José Ramírez has been their best player by fWAR despite having a down year at the plate thus far with a 101 wRC+. Despite missing some time with an injury, Ramírez has stolen 27 bases in the 82 games that he has played.

Run prevention, however, has been a relative strength for the Guardians. They’ve given up 4.09 runs per game, the eight-lowest rate in baseball. Add it all up, and even with a slightly negative run differential, they’re in second place in the American League Central, three games behind the division-leading White Sox and one ahead of the Twins for the third and final AL Wild Card spot.

If the Red Sox continue playing as well as they have lately, that final playoff spot could go to any one of seven teams, as the Blue Jays are just four games back of the Guardians despite having a 53-60 record.

Tuesday, August 4: Sean Manaea vs. Joey Cantillo, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY

Manaea (2026): 91.2 IP, 88 K, 30 BB, 13 HR, 4.42 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 109 ERA-

In a season that’s seen the Mets held back by significantly poor performances by veteran players, Manaea’s in-season turnaround has been a pleasant surprise. Since the beginning of May, Manaea’s been perfectly cromulent with a 3.75 ERA and a 4.30 FIP. And since rejoining the rotation in mid-June, he has a 3.88 ERA and a 4.64 FIP. That’s still a far cry from his outstanding second half performance in 2024—which made the Mets believe in him to the tune of his three-year, $75 milion contract—but is a major improvement upon his early-season work that made him look like a DFA candidate at the time.

Cantillo (2026): 113.2 IP, 124 K, 54 BB, 13 HR, 3.88 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 94 ERA-

If you’re not familiar with Cantillo, that’s understandable. The 26-year-old lefty was drafted by the Padres in 2017 and traded to Cleveland as part of the nine-player swap that included the likes of Josh Naylor and Mike Clevinger. Cantillo made his big league debut with the Guardians as a starter in 2024, worked mostly out of the bullpen while making some starts in 2025, and has been a rotation mainstay this season. His ERA and FIP are identical, which is always fun, and his career 3.78 ERA is pretty close to matching his mark this season, too.

Wednesday, August 5: Nolan McLean vs. Slade Cecconi, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY

McLean (2026): 125.2 IP, 148 K, 45 BB, 13 HR, 3.29 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 81 ERA-

If McLean keeps pitching the way he has been recently, he might get himself back into the conversation for the National League Rookie of the Year award. While he’s been out of the Cy Young picture for a while now, he’s pitching as well as anyone in baseball lately, as he has a 2.24 ERA over his last eleven starts and a 1.49 ERA over his last six. It’s been easy to overlook how good McLean is, and it would be very fun to see him finish the season with a sub-three ERA.

Cecconi (2026): 107.1 IP, 84 K, 35 BB, 16 HR, 4.78 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 116 ERA-

While Joey Cantillo was traded alongside Josh Naylor to Cleveland, Cecconi was traded in a one-for-one swap that sent Naylor to the Diamondbacks. He had a rather unsightly 6.06 ERA in the portions of the 2023 and 2024 seasons that he spent in the big leagues with Arizona, but he’s been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter since the beginning of the 2025 season with the Guardians. He has a 4.51 ERA in 239.1 innings of work with the team, all of which have been as a starter.

Thursday, August 6: TBD vs. Tanner Bibee, 1:10 PM EDT on SNY

TBD

Over at FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, the best guess is that Christian Scott will make this start. If so, he has a 2.99 ERA and a 3.47 FIP in 69.1 innings this year. If not, you’d have to figure the Mets will go with some sort of bullpen game as they sort through their roster following the deadline.

Bibee (2026): 132.1 IP, 100 K, 38 BB, 20 HR, 3.81 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 92 ERA-

Drafted by Cleveland in the fifth round in 2021, Bibee hasn’t quite lived up to his very good rookie season in 2023. He finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting that year as he put up a 2.98 ERA in 142.0 innings of work. Since then, he has a 3.85 ERA, which certainly isn’t terrible.

The Dodgers entered the 2026 season with ambitions of becoming team to three-peat in 26 years. Following Monday’s trade deadline, they echoed that sentiment with a summer blockbuster and an encore.

Their string of deals began late Saturday night, as after suffering a 3-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox, they struck a deal that infuriated nearly the entire baseball world. The Dodgers landed two-time defending AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal from the Detroit Tigers while sending away outfield prospect Zyhir Hope, right-hander River Ryan and pitching prospect Brady Smith.

The addition of Skubal not only invigorates an already vaunted rotation (when fully healthy), it gives the Dodgers another left-handed option that is a proven innings eater. Before Skubal needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow, he had logged at least six innings of work in six of his first seven starts. He hasn’t matched his pre-injury average start length since returning on June 13, but he has logged at least five innings in all but one of his nine final starts in Detroit.

For a Dodgers rotation that is still missing Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, adding Skubal in the mix keeps the six-man rotation as the norm for the pitching staff down the stretch. With Emmet Sheehan’s demotion to Triple-A, the current rotation features Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Justin Wrobleski and Eric Lauer, and until the other three starters return, the Dodgers could implement a weekly bullpen game. Skubal will certainly headline the four-man rotation in the postseason, and the Dodgers have seven options to choose to accompany him come October.

Gauging what the postseason rotation will be a work in progress until October arrives. Skubal and Yamamoto are shoe-ins at the top, but the final two spots are completely up for grabs. Blake Snell is set to return next week after a final rehab start, while Tyler Glasnow has yet to embark on his rehab assignment. The latter is projected to return sometime in September. Ohtani’s status for returning to the mound in the regular season is unclear, though the team expects him back in October. The trio of Sasaki, Wrobleski and Lauer all were used exclusively in relief last year for both the Dodgers and Blue Jays.

The Dodgers decided to acquire a former All-Star starting pitcher in fixing their bullpen, as they landed left-hander Kris Bubic from the Kansas City Royals. Although Bubic has been on the injured list since May, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported that Bubic threw a bullpen on Monday, with the plan being to build him up as a reliever.

While the Dodgers have five available options for the rotation at the time of writing, Bubic is an excellent candidate to handle bulk duties for a bullpen game or come in for short, high-leverage situations. He already has previous experience in relief, as he made 27 appearances out of the bullpen with Kansas City in 2024, posting a 2.67 ERA across 30 innings before returning to the rotation the following season.

The Dodgers addressed their concerns at catcher by bringing back a pair of old friends; Ben Rortvedt from the New York Mets and Hunter Feduccia from the Tampa Bay Rays. Dalton Rushing has joined Will Smith on the injured list, and the tandem of Rortvedt and Feduccia ensure the Dodgers have a viable catching option against right-handed pitching. Eliézer Alfonzo and Chuckie Robinson both remain on the roster for now as options against left-handed pitching.

Once Smith and Rushing both return from injury, all three current options will see their playing time crunched dramatically, but they will steady the ship in the meantime.

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Full slate Tuesday is here!

Let's get into my three favorite home run props and predictions from tonight's MLB slate, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani and Drake Baldwin.

Here are my favorite MLB picks for August 4.

MLB home run props for today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Shohei Ohtani	+226
Drake Baldwin	+325

Home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+226)

The great one, Shohei Ohtani, finds himself in another great spot against Chicago Cubs right-hander Javier Assad. While Assad has been solid over his last five starts, he's continued to struggle against left-handed hitters.

Across the last 60 left-handed batters he's faced, Assad owns a 4.86 ERA while allowing a 41% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate. Those hitters have also produced a .363 xBA, .638 xSLG, and .356 xwOBA.

Ohtani, meanwhile, has been scorching hot. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he's generated a hard-hit rate north of 72%. He also enters with an elite Batters-Box rating, covering 86.7% of Assad's arsenal.

The trends are just as impressive. Across 328 elite-rated games over the last three seasons, Ohtani has homered in nearly 30% of them.

With the clock ticking and the market always backing Ohtani to go deep, grab this number while it's still available. I wouldn't play it below +200.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: TBS

Home run prediction: Drake Baldwin (+325)

The seventh-highest rated bat of the day on Batters-Box is Atlanta Braves young slugger Drake Baldwin.

The Atlanta catcher enters Tuesday with 90% coverage against Ryan Gusto's pitch mix. The Miami Marlins right hander has been struggling lately, posting a 6.10 ERA while allowing a 51.61% hard-hit rate over his last three starts.

Against the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, Gusto has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and just a 35.7% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have also produced a .345 xBA, .489 xSLG, and .365 xwOBA.

Baldwin, meanwhile, has been on fire. Over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching, he's posted a .925 OPS and .417 wOBA while generating a 63.2% hard-hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate.

So far this season, Baldwin has homered in 23% of his 13 elite-rated games. I think this prop is playable down to +300.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, MIAM

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

With the recent commitment of Campbell Fighting Camels outfielder Carlos Lugo, two key contributors returning to the Forty Acres, and all four signees who were selected in the 2026 MLB Draft now headed to professional baseball, Texas Longhorns head coach Jim Schlossnagle and his staff have assembled the 2027 roster heading into fall practice as the immediate focus turns towards the ability to contact 2028 recruits starting last Saturday.

“We’re excited about our roster at this point,” Schlossnagle said last week. “Need to get these guys on campus and and start figuring out who they are and and start putting together a team — right now we’re a group of players, and we have to become a team, and that takes time.”

Putting that roster together happened during a whirlwind six weeks after Texas exited the College World Series in mid-June, the busiest time of the year in college baseball.

“The people that don’t understand college athletics or college baseball think that when the season’s over you can go on vacation. It’s actually the opposite. The hours increase, they don’t decrease,” Schlossnagle said.

While four of the six high school signees ranked in the MLB.com’s top 250 prospects aren’t going to make it to campus — a poor hit rate compared to some other SEC schools — the Horns did have six players ranked in Baseball America’s top 250 players in their signing class withdraw from the draft entirely, ensuring immediate post-draft roster certainty for the coaching staff.

Combined with the returns of senior first baseman Casey Borba and senior second baseman Ethan Mendoza, the overall draft results were favorable for Texas, especially for the 2027 season — while getting another elite high school prospect like third baseman Beau Peterson to campus would have help the program’s long-term outlook, the experience of Borba and Mendoza raise the floor for Schlossnagle’s third season on the Forty Acres.

Scholarship increases, NIL opportunities available to baseball players, and new eligibility rules all made the returns of both players more possible than in past years, notably so in comparison to the 40-round draft that was eliminated in 2020, as the leverage of a potential fifth season boosted their demands.

Another clear area of success for the Horns came in executing a portal strategy that took fewer risks with draft-eligible players. After losing three portal additions to last year’s draft, including two outfielders, Texas only took two draft-eligible players — UCLA transfer outfielder Peyton Brennan and Middle Tennessee State transfer right-hander Gavin King — and both went undrafted.

That ensures that the entirety of the seven-man portal class, ranked No. 3 nationally by Baseball America and including three top-25 transfers, will suit up for the Longhorns next year.

Ahead of potential major changes to the next collective bargaining agreement that could exclude high school players from the draft entirely, there was increased incentive for this group to maximize their earning potential. Even for a player like Peterson, the lowest selection of the four Texas signees at No. 133, which carries a slot value of nearly $570,000, the NIL possibilities with the Longhorns couldn’t compete with his slot value, much less the $3 million deal signed with the Houston Astros.

But the post-draft Texas class still ranks fourth nationally by Baseball America, highlighted by a number of college-ready arms that allowed the Longhorns to take only one pitcher in the portal class.

“I would say it never goes perfect, but it went well,” Schlossnagle said of the team’s roster-building efforts.

Of the 11 players to depart the program, Texas did lose two particularly promising young arms in right-handers Cooper Rummel and Grady Westphal.

“Being a player at Texas is a cool thing, and it demands a lot. For some people, it’s too much, and that’s okay. We had some guys, one or two that we would have preferred to stay in the program in the right role,” Schlossnagle said.

“I think as you see across different sports, just because a player leaves the program doesn’t mean that we didn’t want them to stay. But if I describe to player X that hey, this is where we see you, this is the kind of player we think you can become, but you’re still behind X, Y, and Z at the moment, you may have a player who doesn’t want to do that, or a player who feels a little spooked by being at Texas. Certainly, that doesn’t make them a bad person, it just means that they may be a better fit somewhere else. The saying that the winning tradition in Texas will not be entrusted to the timid nor the weak is very real. And that doesn’t make you bad. It just means it’s not the right spot for you.”

Schlossnagle did credit pitching coach Max Weiner for his efforts in retaining current players and signees while helping execute the program’s portal strategy in the wake of recruiting coordinator Nolan Cain’s departure to Texas A&M after the season ended.

“There has to be a point person with players and agents and all the different things that go into recruiting this time of year, and the draft, and so Max just really stepped up and did a phenomenal job,” Schlossnagle said.

The new additions to the program fit the profiles that Schlossnagle wants, prioritizing strike throwing among the pitchers with the knowledge that Weiner can help improve the shapes of specific pitches, and three attributes for hitters — swing decisions, contact ability, and bat speed/exit velocity.

“Contact rate is something that is tough to get better at. The swing decisions we can improve. The bat speed we’ve improved. Contact rate, some, right? So if a guy is a big swing-and miss-player already, is that going to be a good fit for us? Maybe not. Is he a guy that contacts the ball but doesn’t hit it very hard right now and makes good choices? Have we improved that? We actually have been able to improve that, and so you look for those guys who maybe have some underlying traits,” Schlossnagle said.

The result is a roster that is now much closer to looking how Schlossnagle wants it to than it did last year or two years ago, so the Horns have a chance to enter the 2027 season as one of the nation’s top-ranked teams as they attempt to build on the program’s first College World Series appearance since 2022. With the star power of Dylan Volantis, Sam Cozart, Adrian Rodriguez, and Anthony Pack Jr. bolstered by transfer portal additions and promising arms in the recruiting class, Texas will face high expectations next season as the Longhorns chase their first national title since 2005.

Rangers have appointed Brian Gilmour as interim academy director to replace David McCallum, who departs after two-and-a-half years in the role.

Former Ibrox midfielder and youth graduate Gilmour returned to the club in 2017 as an academy coach before joining the B team staff in 2020.

The 39-year-old also worked as part of Philippe Clement's backroom team during the Belgian's tenure as head coach.

McCallum leaves Rangers after 11 years' service, which includes a spell as B team manager and brief stint as first-team caretaker in 2021.

"Gilmour, himself a former Rangers academy player, takes on the role with a strong understanding of every stage of the player pathway, having served in several roles across the club since returning in 2017," Rangers said in a statement.

"David McCallum will now depart Rangers, leaving with the very best wishes and thanks of everyone at the club for his 11 years of service."

Tacoma Rainiers

It was another brutal week for Tacoma, dropping five of six to a strong River Cats squad at home. Despite the early success from Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo, it’s been tough sledding for this Tacoma Roster all year, really falling short on the mound on a nightly basis. The stretch run is likely to siphon even more talent from this roster, though recent trade acquisition Nolan Jones could be a nice addition to this lineup if he isn’t with the big league club sooner than later.

The ever-consistent Arroyo collected seven hits across his five games this week, missing one contest due to a HBP scare that warranted an MRI in Seattle, but was fortunately negative. He’s back in the lineup and appears to be fully healthy for this Tacoma squad, though there’s a chance his advanced bat could be of use to the big league team even after the recent acquisition of Taylor Ward. Both Rob Refsnyder and Victor Robles are receiving frequent AB’s for the M’s, and replacing them with Ward and Arroyo seems like it would make this lineup far more imposing. It would likely require Arroyo to sit a few times a week, but it may ultimately prove worthwhile if the M’s end up making it over the hump and into postseason play.

Montes also had a solid week, pocketing five hits across his five games. In a rare occurrence, none of his knocks ended up going for extra bases, but the fact he’s still making some consistent contact is a great sign. He’s looked like he belongs at the AAA level, and given he’s still just 21 years old, that’s truly a testament to his immense ability.

Arkansas Travelers

The Travs got back on track against a middling Midland team this week, nabbing four of the six games on the series and inching themselves closer to the division lead. Springfield is red hot as of now and has separated from the rest of the division, but there’s still time for the Travs to put in some work and make a run for the postseason. They’ve got far too much talent to be in the middle of the pack long term.

Ryan Sloan has been dialed in as of late and is proving those that have him as the best pitching prospect in baseball right. Tossing 4.2 innings of shutout ball, Sloan’s 2026 has been truly outstanding; Even after an adjustment phase to the Texas League, the 20 year old has pitched to a 3.50 ERA on the year with elite K/BB rates. Since mid-June, Sloan has an ERA south of 1.70, and that number falls to a measly 1.20 since the first of July, remarkable numbers for someone pitching in a league where the average player is nearly five years his senior. Perhaps overshadowed by the outstanding Kade Anderson, Sloan is just as elite of a prospect as his rotationmate and possesses as high of a ceiling as you’ll find on the mound.

Recent trade acquisition Boston Smith has been assigned to the Travs and is sure to provide some heavy fire power at the plate; he’s top ten in minor league wRC+ and brings a monstrous lefty bat to an already potent lineup. He’ll presumably make his system debut later this afternoon.

Everett AquaSox

The Frogs dropped the weekly set this week, losing four of six in a disappointing result against the Hops. The AquaSox are just a game out of playoff position and have the talent to get to the postseason, but they’ll have to find some more consistency if they’re going to realize their potential. The pitching has been rough recently, and the back end of their ‘pen has lost some of their most dependable arms in recent weeks. Hopefully they can bounce back and give the Northwest League title a real shot.

An unheralded doubles machine, the recently promoted Aiden Taurek has taken well to his new home in the PNW and has been a really nice piece for this Everett lineup. Still leading the minor leagues in doubles, Taurek holds an OPS of .851 through his first handful of games at High-A and has looks like a late-round steal out of the 2025 draft class. The former Saint Mary’s Gael may have been a 13th rounder, but he’s certainly played considerably above his draft position and is an interesting name that fills out the latter half of organizational prospect lists.

Inland Empire 66ers

The 66ers really turned things around this week and took five of six from an admittedly paltry Visalia team, but regardless of opponent, to see the 66ers get things rolling with a bit of consistency is a great sight. There’s plenty of help that just arrived to this lineup; hopefully they can serve as the impetus to a strong end of the season.

Recent draftees Jake Brown, Hayden Yost, Henry Ford, and Ryan Wynn all made their debuts in Sunday afternoon’s contest, all collecting a base knock despite each playing only a chunk of the game. Ford, who launched a three-run bomb for his first professional hit, hit a nuke to the opposite field, and both Brown and Yost manned centerfield, splitting the game with one another. Each of these bats have some very intriguing underlying metrics in their offensive profiles and should be very fun to watch over the last several weeks of the season.

Shoutout to Estevan Moreno; the corner infield is rather crowded right now, but he’s mashed this season and is leading this team offensively. He secured 10 hits on the series, four of which ended up going over the fence for dingers. He’s played his way into the spotlight after a 20th round selection in the 2025 draft.

DSL Mariners

The division-leading DSL squad continues to pummel their opponents with a potent offensive assault. Jarvis Gomez, a lesser-heralded outfield prospect, has been on a torrid stretch as of late and raised his OPS north of 1.000 over the past week. DSL stats are notoriously tough to gauge, but he’s one of several in this lineup that look like they could be really compelling players in the coming seasons.

Before the season started, the Royals thought they would be competing for a playoff spot come September. Before the season started, I thought the Royals would be competing for a playoff spot come September. Before the season started, ZiPS and PECOTA and most of you thought the Royals would be competing for a playoff spot come September.

I say this to point out that when J.J. Picollo indicated Monday evening that the Royals had believed they were going to compete in 2026, they weren’t alone and they weren’t unreasonable for believing it. Some of what happened to the Royals this year was predictable: Jonathan India providing no value, Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic getting hurt, Salvador Perez declining. Heck, you could go arm-by-arm in the bullpen – by far the worst unit on the team – and reasonably think that each pitcher might not be good. What ended up happening was that none of the bullpen arms were good. That was, of course, always a possibility. But it was never a high-probability outcome.

Go back to that ZiPS projection, and the 50th percentile outcome for this relief unit was 3.1 fWAR. Instead, they’ve been worth -3.5, by far the worst in baseball. If I go through and look at the 20th-percentile individual outcomes, I get to about something in the -1.5 to -2.0 range. That means the likelihood of the Royals bullpen being this bad was something less than a one-in-five chance. I’d guess it was even less than a one-in-ten chance.

But it did happen, and how the Royals are responding to it is…concerning to say the least.

The Royals have veered further and further from the ideal

The Royals said upfront that they viewed 2023 as an evaluation season. At the end of the year, Picollo was very open and honest about how the Royals viewed the team. They felt they had determined Bobby Witt Jr. was absolutely the shortstop of the future; they believed Kyle Isbel could be the starting center fielder because of his defense. But they also knew that they desperately needed at least one outfield bat, some relievers, and some starting pitching help. That offseason, they went out and added Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Nick Anderson, and Hunter Renfroe. They made it to the ALDS in 2024.

After 2024, the Royals were a bit more cagey about what they needed to do to get over the hump. They made an effort to add a different outfield bat, but didn’t find anyone. They went out and got Carlos Estévez to bolster a bullpen that needed help, but they did nothing to address a rotation that had, admittedly, been very good but had also avoided any injuries outside Michael Wacha’s broken toe. Somewhat predictably, they suffered a setback that year and finished only 82-80, still above .500 but out of first place. Notably, they significantly improved after acquiring starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen and outfield bat Mike Yastrzemski, who played better than expected.

After 2025, they got even cagier. We all knew at that point that the Royals needed an outfield bat and some bullpen depth to make a run in 2026. They made it clear they weren’t likely to spend money to get it, though, even if they left open the possibility they might. Some people, including those with the team, felt the Royals could accomplish their goals by dealing some of their starting pitching depth. Othersamong us felt that the team would need as much pitching depth as it had. Even that proved to be too conservative, though the Royals have done a very credible job of covering their starting pitching injuries with guys like Randy Dobnak and Luinder Avila (who most of us had in the bullpen) doing competent work.

The point, however, is that the Royals needed an outfield bat and they needed to spend money to do it but the team wasn’t going to. The only major free agent acquisition the Royals made all offseason was signing Lane Thomas, whom they signed for $5.5 million. Later, they swung a trade to add Isaac Collins and Nick Mears for Angel Zerpa. These were both exceptionally smart moves, but they weren’t enough, and we all knew it. My best hope was that the Royals were planning to try and tread water until the deadline, when they could try and work some magic again.

They’re in full denial mode now

That brings us to yesterday, when the Royals declined to trade Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Alex Lange, Daniel Lynch IV, John Schreiber, or Starling Marte. When Picollo was asked by Star writer Sam McDowell why the team felt they could compete next year, Picollo’s answer was telling:

“Well, the same belief we had this year. We know who our catchers are, we know who our first baseman is. I think [Michael] Massey and [Nick] Loftin have done a great job at second base. We know who our shortstop is, who our third baseman is. Isaac Collins has come around, Jac Caglianone is playing well. Kyle Isbel plays good defense and understands his role as an offensive player. So when you go around the field, we’re not a rebuilding team. And then, when you look at what Wacha and Lugo have given us? And Noah Cameron?”

As I said at the top, the Royals weren’t wrong to think they could compete this year. But to look at how the season has played out and think that the reasons you thought they could compete this year are the reasons that they can compete next year is… wild.

He names essentially the entire idealized position-player group, plus three starting pitchers. That’s 13 players out of a 26-man roster. He went on to acknowledge the injuries mean there aren’t really any other pitchers they can rely on.

So, let me get this straight: the Royals went into the last offseason with most of a starting lineup, 7-9 starting pitchers they felt good about when healthy, 3 relievers they thought would be excellent, and 6-9 relievers they thought might be able to offer something. They will head into this upcoming offseason with most of a starting lineup (like last year, they still need one more bat to cover the decline of players like Salvador Perez and Isbel, to say nothing of possible regression in other players), three starting pitchers (two of whom are on the decline and one of whom still needs to prove that his rookie season wasn’t entirely a fluke), and zero reliable relievers. But they’re going to compete next year for the same reason they thought they could this year (when they absolutely did not compete.)

Make it make sense!

There are some who will point out that the Royals’ salary obligations for 2027 are drastically reduced compared to what they had this year and that they will have lots of money to throw around. But even if they had infinite money to throw around, it’s hard to imagine one team adding 3-5 starting pitchers, 6-10 relievers, and at least one competent hitter in a single offseason. Mostly because it’s hard to imagine that many viable free agents being available and all succeeding in a single offseason. Ask the 2025 Mets about it, and they didn’t go for even half that much!

We also know the Royals can’t just trade to fill all of those holes because if they had anyone in the upper levels of the minors worth trading, Omaha fans wouldn’t be doomed to watch Scott Barlow, Scott Alexander, and Anthony Gose pitching out of their bullpen right now while Abraham Toro, Brandon Drury, and Kevin Newman get regular time in the lineup. They could possibly trade one of Ramon Ramirez or Blake Mitchell as the headliner of a single deal, but they don’t really have the prospects to fill in such a deal around those guys.

Picollo said, and I believe him, that the interest in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo was underwhelming. Teams want guys with “stuff” at the trade deadline; that’s why the Red Sox gave up Marcelo Mayer for Erik Miller and not Daniel Lynch IV. So maybe it makes sense not to have traded them. But what doesn’t make sense is to think that they’ll somehow help your team to compete in 2027 because three starting pitchers is, famously, not enough starting pitchers.

Maybe Picollo learned somewhere along the way that being open and honest with the fans and media, as he was throughout 2023, is a bad way to do business. Maybe the Royals know something we don’t about how they’re going to be able to solve all their problems next season*. Or maybe he only felt he could be honest that year because he knew he had the backing from the team owner to actually take the time to identify and spend the money to fix the problems with the team. Maybe he knows he no longer has those things and that the only guarantee is that he’s eventually going to be fired for not being able to work miracles within the constraints that have been set upon him, but if he wants to have a hope of getting hired as a GM somewhere else someday, he can’t throw the boss under the bus so he has to make himself look stupid instead.

*No, it’s not that there won’t be a 2027 season. MLB owners are not united or liquid enough to lock players out for an entire season. The same reasons they’ve never been able to break the union before haven’t changed. Most, if not all, of the 2027 baseball season will be played as scheduled with the MLBPA players we root for.

We might never know the answer to what’s going on with Picollo and the front office. But I can tell you one thing: sitting here on August 4, 2026, there is no apparent, realistic path to the Royals competing in 2027. Unless the Royals really do know something no one else does, this offseason could be even more painful and frustrating than the trade deadline was. I’d say 2027 could be more painful, too, but we should all be able to see it coming this time.

Up to now, everything you’ve read here about the Cubs’ Trade Deadline deals has been basic facts about the players themselves and what the Cubs gave up for them.

Let’s do a bit of next-day analysis.

Before I get to what roster changes are likely coming, here’s some analysis of the Cubs deals from Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic, who wrote that the Cubs were a “winner”:

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Cubs’ rotation lined up like this: Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and David Peterson. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer overhauled that group ahead of the trade deadline, adding a pair of two-time All-Star right-handers, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, and lefty Braxton Garrett. The Cubs, who also have Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown on the injured list, should be able to flex some of their surplus starters into relief roles in the postseason.

Tyrone Taylor is another rangy outfield option for the Cubs, but he also has hit left-handed pitching well this season, which could come in handy in October. All of that adding came at a significant cost to the Cubs’ farm system. The departure of Jefferson Rojas, in particular, will sting. But the major-league roster is undeniably better because of it, and, in the midst of a division race, that matters most.

I concur with this. As I’ve noted elsewhere, my grade for this is a solid “B”.

Where will these players fit in and what roster moves need to be made to add them?

First, the Cubs announced all these trades by press release Monday. Let’s look at them in chronological order.

Gausman and Garrett were added to the 40-man roster and it was full. Garrett was then optioned to Triple-A Iowa, where he’s likely to stay the rest of the year. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery and is likely a project for 2027.

Zeferjahn was acquired, in part, for Moisés Ballesteros, so that deleted one player (Ballesteros) from the 40-man and added one (Zeferjahn).

When Holmes and Taylor were added, Luke Little was designated for assignment.

Looking at the Cubs’ 40-man roster as of this morning, there appear to be 41 players listed (excluding guys on the 60-day IL).

So what’s going to happen here?

Gausman hasn’t officially been announced as the starter for Thursday, but that seems likely. He doesn’t have to be added to the 26-man active roster until then, and at that point I would think that Jake Woodford will be designated for assignment, opening a slot on the active roster and also the 40-man, reducing it to 40.

When Taylor is activated, Kevin Alcántara should be headed back to Iowa. I’m happy for Alcántara hitting his first MLB home run on Monday.

Holmes and Zeferjahn likely replace Tyler Ferguson and Antoine Kelly on the active roster. Both Kelly and Ferguson have options remaining so they’ll both be sent to Iowa.

What isn’t clear at this point is whether Holmes will be used as a starter — which he’s been for the Mets the last two years — or in relief. Holmes was the Yankees closer from 2022-24 and did a decent job, posting a 2.84 ERA over 195 appearances, with 74 saves in 89 opportunities (13 of the blown saves were in 2024).

Thus after all of these deals and moves, the active roster should settle this way (before anyone returns from the injured list):

Catchers (2): Miguel Amaya, Carson Kelly
Infielders (6): Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Pedro Ramirez, James Triantos
Outfielders (5): Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Tyrone Taylor, Michael Conforto
Starting pitchers (5): Javier Assad, Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman, Shōta Imanaga, David Peterson
Relief pitchers (8): Aaron Civale, Clay Holmes, Colin Rea, Ryan Rolison, Caleb Thielbar, Trent Thornton, Jacob Webb, Ryan Zeferjahn

If Holmes is used in the rotation, then Assad would likely go to the bullpen.

Or it could be different! If you have other roster ideas, let us know in the comments.

Lastly, if you’re wondering, here are the uniform numbers for the newest Cubs:

It’s not hard to imagine the stifling amount of pressure that Matt Olson faced upon his arrival in Atlanta ahead of the 2022 season.

Replacing the face of the franchise, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, and a guy whom the fanbase badly wanted to retain: Freddie Freeman. Oh, and Olson was returning to his hometown on top of that.

It would be enough to reduce the average person to dust.

But Matt Olson is not an average person, as he’s proven time and time again during his five-year Braves tenure. It’s hard to think of many days where Olson has looked like he’s felt any sort of pressure whatsoever.

All he’s done is been an everyday first baseman — yet to miss a start in a Braves uniform and set to tie Stan Musial for the eighth-longest consecutive games played streak in major league history on Tuesday with consecutive game number 895 — and fill that void in an incredibly capable manner.

With his homer in Friday’s 6-2 win over the Nationals, Olson reached the 29-homer mark for the fifth time in as many seasons in Atlanta. But after he stopped at 29 each of the last two seasons, he blew past it with another homer Saturday and one more on Sunday for good measure.

His 31 homers are now tied for fourth-most in the majors and his 58 extra-base hits are one off the major-league lead held by Yordan Alvarez.

He’s now up to 177 homers as a Brave. With the pace he’s on, it’s entirely possible he breaks the franchise record of 190 homers in the first five seasons set by Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews.

He’s also second among active first basemen in OAA (32), which is positioning-neutral, while being first in both UZR (23) and DRS (91) (which credit positioning to the player).

“He’s become one of the best players in the game, when you take everything into consideration,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said earlier this week about Olson. “He changes the game on defense and he obviously changes the game in the (batter’s) box. He’s a leader in that clubhouse and he posts every day.”

Over nine full major league seasons, Olson has been a four-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove winner and one-time Silver Slugger honoree. Given the fact that he’s at 319 career homers and turns 33 next March, joining the 400-homer club seems totally in grasp and even the 500 club, which currently has just 28 members, could happen if he can continue at close to this pace.

And yet, it doesn’t seem that Olson gets a widespread level of attention nationally that a player of his magnitude would receive.

Part of that could be how he wants things. There hasn’t been a change in production at first base in the transition but there’s been a bit of one in character going from Freeman’s magnanimous personality to Olson, who seems quieter and unassuming.

It probably also didn’t help Olson’s perception coming up that he began his career on an Oakland Athletics (RIP) team which didn’t make much noise nationally.

Whatever the reason may be, Olson has flown under the radar throughout his major league career. Even this season, when he’s carried the Braves to a comfortable NL East lead through myriad injuries to starters, two extended absences from Ronald Acuña Jr. and through elbow discomfort he’s battled at times this season.

Maybe being a part of a deeper Braves postseason run — they still haven’t won a playoff series since he’s been here — could help that.

It doesn’t seem to bother Olson, though. In fact, it may be exactly what he’s looking for, at least according to an interview with the AJC earlier this season when asked if he agrees that he is underrated.

“Honestly, my best answer is I don’t really care.”

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rangers fans and fans across the country.

Well, this should be interesting…

What grade would you give the Texas Rangers for their trade deadline moves (or non-moves)?

Cast your vote below…

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are -112 moneyline favorites at home tonight against the San Diego Padres as Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound.

My Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions expect Arizona to come out on top behind E-Rod's recent dominance. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, August 4. 

Who will win Padres vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks moneyline (-112)

Eduardo Rodriguez is throwing the ball extremely well right now for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The left-hander owns a 2.61 xERA over his last two starts while holding opponents to a mere 17.8% hard-hit rate.

The San Diego Padres counter with Randy Vasquez, who has been respectable with a 3.46 FIP over the last month. However, Vasquez rarely works deep, which should force the Padres bullpen into action early.

The bigger edge for Arizona comes at the plate. The Diamondbacks have been much better offensively in Phoenix, posting a 101 wRC+ at home compared to a mark of 87 on the road.

I don’t expect a blowout, but Arizona should give E-Rod enough support against a Padres offense that owns a poor 88 wRC+ against left-handers.

I’ll play this pick to -130.

COVERS INTEL: Rodriguez has pitched better at home, posting a 3.79 FIP at Chase Field, compared to a 4.40 FIP on the road in 2026. 

Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+119)

The Under has a clear path tonight, even with this game being played in Arizona. Neither lineup is showing much power at the moment, with the Padres posting a brutal .076 ISO over the last week and the Diamondbacks sitting at just .126 during that same span.

The bullpen setup also supports a lower-scoring game. San Diego’s relief corps has been steady lately, while Arizona’s bullpen owns a strong 2.84 xERA over the last week. That matters with Vasquez unlikely to be in there long for the Padres.

Rodriguez’s recent weak-contact profile gives Arizona a solid run-prevention base, and if the bullpens continue to limit damage, this matchup has a strong path to stay Under 8.5.

I'll play this pick to +100.

Padres vs Diamondbacks weather

Weather outside Chase Field will be extremely hot tonight, with temperatures still around 107-109°F early before falling to 100°F later. Rain chances are very low, and winds should be light to moderate. However, if the roof is closed, the game will be played in controlled conditions with minimal weather impact.

Padres vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Padres +104 | Diamondbacks -108
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-178) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-127) | Under 8.5 (+122)

Padres vs Diamondbacks trend

The Diamondbacks have hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 53% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info

Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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With their season having gone off the rails long ago, David Stearns and the Mets did what they had to do at Monday's MLB trade deadline -- dealing nearly all of their pending free agents with value.

They even took it a step further, sending dominant setup man Luke Weaver (under contract through 2027) and versatile right-handed reliever Huascar Brazoban (under team control through 2029) to the Pirates and White Sox, respectively.

When it comes to assessing the players the Mets got back in their deadline sell-off, doing an instant analysis of it requires nuance -- especially when using prospect rankings as part of your determination of how good a return is.

Farm systems aren't apples to apples. For example, Tampa Bay's No. 15 prospect could be San Diego's No. 6. So blindly citing those rankings without additional context is pointless. 

Beyond that, most of the prospect lists people are referencing haven't been updated since before the season. 

In any event, without the benefit of Doc Brown's DeLorean, we can only work with the information we have right now. And using that info, it's fair to say that the process Stearns and the Mets used while making their most important trades -- getting infielder Sammy Stafura from the Pirates for Weaver and infielder Jefferson Rojas from the Cubs for Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor -- was sound. 

They clearly valued Stafura enough to zero in on him and pay down Weaver's salary. And getting Rojas, who is widely viewed as a top 100 prospect in baseball, felt like a big win.

Some of the other deals (Brazoban, Brooks Raley) felt a bit light when it came to the return, and another (Freddy Peralta) felt like the return was appropriate. But again, this is all a crapshoot. And the process was deliberate and sound.

In the aftermath of all the wheeling and dealing on Monday night, Stearns fielded some questions about whether the team considered seeking immediate help in these deals. His answer, unsurprisingly, was that they simply went after the best talent -- an answer that, like it or not, was the right one.

Now comes the hard part.

With the Mets attempting to rebound right away and contend in 2027, they're going to have to assemble a team from the bones of a roster whose locks for next season might be in the single digits, with the core of the club possibly looking like this:

Nolan McLean
Christian Scott
Devin Williams
Juan Soto
Carson Benge
A.J. Ewing
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Alvarez
Luis Torrens

A wild card here is Bo Bichette, who has a player opt-out after this season. If he exercises it, the Mets will have to find a new third baseman.

There's also the presence of Jorge Polanco (under contract through 2027) and Marcus Semien (under contract through 2028), which could create serious issues. Polanco, who has missed significant time due to an Achilles injury and can't play the field in his current state, has a .388 OPS and 9 OPS+ in 29 games this year. Even an OPS .250 points higher would be borderline unplayable. Semien has been better lately, but his offensive decline that started a few years ago has continued.

When it comes to the pitching staff, Stearns said the obvious before the deadline, which is that it would have to be strengthened this winter with external additions. McLean will help anchor it, and Scott appears likely to be a member. Sean Manaea and Zac Thornton could also factor in. But serious reinforcements will be needed to address a rotation whose struggles have been the root cause of the Mets' failures for two straight seasons.

The bullpen, now without Weaver and Brazoban, is a different story altogether.

Looking ahead to 2027, the relief corps is basically Williams and seven shrug emojis. It's possible Dedniel Núñez, back from Tommy John surgery, becomes part of the solution. Reed Garrett (another TJS recipient) could be back and help provide depth. Perhaps hard-throwing prospect Dylan Ross gets a chance down the stretch and puts his name in the mix. The same goes for Nate Lavender, who will get a shot in the final months of this season. But the back end of the 'pen will have to be rebuilt.

With all of this as a backdrop comes the added element that Stearns could be fighting for his job.

While giving Stearns a vote of confidence earlier this season and saying that the Mets were going to "live that contract out," Steve Cohen added that there were "no guarantees." And it's difficult to see Stearns getting another chance to right the ship if New York stumbles again in 2027.

Given that scenario, it seems fair to conclude that Stearns has to (and will be) more aggressive this offseason than he's been in the past. Being measured and surgical aren't bad traits to have, but it can also mean missing out on impact players -- especially when it comes to free agency.

That doesn't mean Stearns should turn his philosophy on its head and start acting like A.J. Preller. But more forcefulness is needed.

One way to do that would be to make an exception when it comes to long contracts for older players, throwing caution to the wind while launching an all-out pursuit of Tarik Skubal. There are exceptions to every rule, and Skubal -- a true ace who will be entering his age-30 season next year -- feels like one, as long as his medicals check out.

The Mets should also have their cake and eat it too, by signing Clay Holmes -- a damn good pitcher, New York-tested, and one of their clubhouse leaders -- back via free agency.

Beyond Skubal and Holmes, the list of free agent starters leaves a lot to be desired. So the Mets should act decisively here.

New York also needs a first baseman who is average or better at the position, a designated hitter, and -- depending on how Semien looks over the last two months of the season -- a second baseman.

That's where it might get tricky, since it's hard to envision the Mets entering next season with both Polanco and Semien viewed as non-factors. Maybe they try to thread the needle when it comes to Semien, with Rojas a potential option to replace him at some point during the year.

Then there's the aforementioned bullpen, which needs a lot of help via free agency and/or trade. Stearns might have to get creative via trade here, since -- as is the case with the free agent starters -- not many of the free agent relievers stand out.

Oh, and Stearns needs to hire a new manager. And possibly a new coaching staff. 

While the remainder of the regular season will serve as a tryout of sorts for some of the players trying to stake a claim for next season, this offseason could be a final audition for Stearns as he attempts to prove he has what it takes to turn this thing around and stabilize it.