Category: Baseball

The fact that Mike Piazza is a metalhead really fits with this beef. I believe it’s quite metal to shake out your mullet and be like, “The Dodgers drafted me when no one else would, but f-you corporate ownership, I don’t owe you no debt of gratitude!” 

Now it might be slightly less metal to then say, “so make me the highest paid player in baseball or I’m gonna be distracted on the field, $81 million is not enough for me I have expensive taste.” But I’m not a heavy metal expert! Band t-shirts are probably expensive, officially licensed ones at least, maybe you have to be rich to be a metalhead? 

Either way, In a bitter contract dispute in 1998, Los Angeles saw Piazza as greedy and disloyal, and Piazza saw the Dodgers organization as calculating and disloyal, and the fans fickle. He also blamed Vin Scully for his “Greedy Mike” label and that right there turned this beef from soft supple meat that could in theory be easily squashed, to an everlasting gobstopper, flamin’ beef flavor. 

Wait… that sounds kind of good.. Or at least interesting, in a weird 7-11-spiciest-chip sort of way? Not my intent with the metaphor, but Willy Wonka, hit me up.

The MLB 2026 trade deadline of Monday, August 3 at 4:00 p.m. MDT is fast approaching.

The Colorado Rockies (and, frankly, most teams) were disappointingly quiet on so far this week, but it’s a new day, so we can all hope for action.

As the day progresses, we’ll keep this tracker updated with the most pertinent rumors and the biggest deals that come to fruition. We’ll also post a new thread daily through Monday.

As a reminder Colorado Rockies will meet the San Diego Padres today at 2:10 pm.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Tarik Skubal's 150th career start with the Detroit Tigers won't be like any before it because there's growing uncertainty about whether he'll be wearing the same uniform the next time he takes the mound. The 2026 MLB trade deadline will have passed when Skubal is next scheduled to pitch, and by then the Tigers' brass will have decided whether to keep their 29-year-old ace for a playoff push or make him the most coveted player available.

Detroit risks losing him to another team without getting the substantial prospect haul arguably the best pitcher in baseball would command if traded before the Aug. 3 deadline.

Those are the stakes Wednesday, July 29 at Comerica Park, when the Tigers close a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles. The Tigers snapped a three-game skid with a 14-0 win on Tuesday, but they remain 3½ games back (and behind four teams) in the race for the final AL wild-card spot. It's a precarious spot since Skubal will be a free agent after this season.

Here's more on Skubal's contract situation, what teams are considered serious potential landing spots for him ahead of the 2026 MLB trade deadline, and how he's performing this season for the Tigers:

It seems that Mets right-hander Clay Holmes is ready to return to the majors after missing more than two months due to a broken fibula, but his next step is up in the air.

Holmes, who tossed 59 pitches over 4.0 scoreless innings for Low-A St. Lucie on Tuesday night, will throw a bullpen session on Thursday. He would be lined up to pitch in his next game on Sunday, which is the day before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

Will he?

"We'll continue to evaluate that as we get closer to the deadline," interim manager Andy Green said before the first game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Braves at Citi Field. "Obviously, anybody can count out and figure out what five days is from now, and it's Sunday before the deadline. So acknowledge that there's a decision to be made around that.

"We'll partner with him in making that decision. We'll have to wait until he gets past his bullpen, regardless, to make a declaration of what's next. So I think we've got a few days here to kind of let things play out."

Holmes holds a $12 million player option for next season that he is all but certain to decline, making him a near lock to be traded ahead of the deadline if he and the Mets don't agree to a contract extension.

SNY MLB Insider Chelsea Janes recently reported that there was mutual interest in an extension, but Holmes said last week that there hadn't been much progress toward one.

It is of course possible that the Mets trade Holmes and re-sign him after the season, which would allow them to have their cake and eat it too. 

With most MLB teams still in contention, there are only a handful of true sellers, which could be advantageous for a Mets team that is expected to trade Holmes, Freddy Peralta, Brooks Raley, A.J. Minter, and perhaps others -- including setup man Luke Weaver, who is under contract through 2027.

As far as Holmes, he is drawing significant interest, including from the Yankees and Phillies. 

Hi there!

As you know, Thomas Smith is away on vacation.

To keep this feature going, I’m going to post simply the WPA numbers and plays of the game, and a poll so you can vote on your choice for Player of the Game. Thomas will update the Rizzo Award standings when he returns.

Game 107, July 28: Cubs 10, Cardinals 2 (61-46)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.176). 2-4, BB, 2 RBI
• Hero: Colin Rea (.094). 6 IP, R, 2 K
• Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.086). 3-5, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.019). 0-4, SF, RBI
• Goat/Kid: James Triantos/Justin Dean (.000). Triantos 0-1, Dean 1-1.

PCA was the only Cub with negative WPA in this game.

WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s two-run double in the first inning (.153)

Cardinals Play of the Game: Masyn Winn’s single in the fourth that loaded the bases (.022).

Up next: Game 3 of this four-game set, with Matthew Boyd facing Dustin May. Boyd’s been really good over his last six starts since returning from his knee injury. The Cubs have a good chance of taking the series.

As Thomas would say: Keep stacking wins.

Today’s birthday belongs to a little-known Yankee, Gary Thomasson. If the name does not ring a bell, it is likely because Thomasson only spent half a season in the Bronx. That season just happened to be 1978, when the Yankees were busy erasing a 14.5-game deficit, surviving the one-game playoff against Boston, and winning another World Series over the Dodgers. Compared to all that, the arrival of a solid role player barely made the headlines, but the man got to depart with a championship ring to his name.

Gary Leah Thomasson
Born: July 29, 1951 (San Diego, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 1978

Thomasson’s journey began on the West Coast, where he was born in sunny San Diego in 1951. While he was still a toddler, his family moved north to Oceanside, California, where he attended Oceanside High School. Following graduation, the San Francisco Giants selected Thomasson in the seventh round of the 1969 MLB Draft.

It only took a few years for the right-handed hitter to reach the major leagues. In 1972, the Giants promoted Thomasson, and he appeared in 10 games as a 21-year-old. His first taste of the majors resulted in nine hits in 27 at-bats. That brief audition, along with a strong spring training the following year, earned him a spot on the Opening Day roster for 1973.

During his first full season, Thomasson played all three outfield positions and first base for the Giants. It was a solid rookie campaign. In 112 games, he slashed .285/.345/.413 and earned a spot on the Topps All-Star Rookie Team.

Over the next four seasons, Thomasson continued to move around the diamond, playing all three outfield spots and first base. None of those years were particularly flashy, but he consistently produced positive value. In 1977, Thomasson enjoyed the best season of his career, setting career highs with 17 home runs, a .809 OPS, and 2.8 WAR.

The Giants capitalized on that breakout by including Thomasson in a blockbuster trade across the bay to the Athletics before the 1978 season. The deal sent Gary Alexander, Dave Heaverlo, Phil Huffman, John Henry Johnson, Alan Wirth, Mario Guerrero, Thomasson, and $300,000 to Oakland in exchange for former MVP pitcher Vida Blue. Thomasson appeared in just 47 games for the A’s before being traded again.

On June 15, 1978, the Yankees acquired Thomasson from Oakland for Dell Alston, Mickey Klutts, and $50,000. It marked the first time in his professional career that he played for an organization outside of California. Fortunately, he did have one familiar face waiting in New York, as fellow Oceanside High School alumnus Chris Chambliss was already starring at first base for the Bombers.

Thomasson appeared in 54 games for the Yankees, once again playing all three outfield positions. In 130 plate appearances, the lefty batter slashed .276/.346/.405 with a 114 OPS+ and three home runs—all oddly within a three-day span in early July—while providing quality depth for a club furiously chasing down another championship after being left for dead in the first half.

The Yankees defeated the Royals in the ALCS before earning revenge against the Dodgers in the World Series to capture the franchise’s 22nd championship. Thomasson appeared in three World Series games, going 1-for-4 at the plate, and earned the only championship ring of his career. He was in left field when Goose Gossage recorded the final out, a popup to captain Thurman Munson.

During the offseason, the Yankees sent Thomasson back to California in a trade with the Dodgers for Brad Gulden. After two seasons in Los Angeles, the Dodgers sold his contract to the Yomiuri Giants in Japan.

To lure Thomasson overseas, the Yomiuri Giants signed him to what was said to be the richest contract in Nippon Professional Baseball history at the time, reportedly three years and $1.2 million. Unfortunately, the investment did not pay off. Thomasson struggled at the plate, nearly setting the single-season strikeout record before eventually losing his starting job.

Oddly enough, Thomasson’s struggles created a legacy that had nothing to do with baseball. Japanese artist Genpei Akasegawa coined the term “Hyperart Thomasson,” using the outfielder’s name to describe architectural objects that are maintained despite serving no practical purpose, such as a staircase leading to a brick wall. The phrase remains part of Japanese culture to this day.

Thomasson may not have left much of a mark on Yankees history, but he certainly left one on Japanese culture. Not many players can say that!

Happy 75th birthday, Gary!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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We've got another busy day of baseball as we hit the dog days of summer just ahead of the trade deadline.

Our MLB expert picks are eyeing two high-scoring clashes, including the Battle of Ohio between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds and the nightcap in Hollywood with the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers. We're also targeting a pair of moneylines in the early-evening slate.

Let's dive in with our full MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: SEA/LAD o9.5	-104
Jon Metler: NYY ML	-133
Joe Osborne: TB ML	-133
Jason Wilson: CLE/CIN o8.5	-117

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners vs Dodgers Over 9.5

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

THE BAT makes this total one of the biggest edges on the board, projecting 11.88 runs with a fair price around -150.

The Seattle Mariners burned both their closer and primary setup man in last night's 7-6 win, a game that featured 23 hits and eight home runs at Dodger Stadium.

The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't in much better shape, with only a handful of trustworthy right-handed bullpen options (Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart, and Edgardo Henriquez) behind lefty starter Eric Lauer, who projects for around a 90-pitch leash.

The conditions also favor offense. It's expected to be around 80 degrees with the wind blowing out. Shohei Ohtani may finally be breaking out of his post-break slump, and Seattle is a perfect 5-0 to the Over on its current road trip.

I'll take the best +EV total on the board with Lauer on the mound and Seattle missing its top bullpen arms.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Mariners.TV/SportsNet LA

Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

Cam Schlittler isn't just one of the favorites to win the American League Cy Young Award — he's the favorite.

The Chicago White Sox's projected lineup is expected to feature seven left-handed hitters, many of whom are young and will be seeing Schlittler for the first time. That's a matchup I want to target.

Schlittler excels at elevating his four-seam fastball on the inner half against lefties, consistently tying hitters up and preventing them from extending their hands. It's a major reason his four-seam fastball has a +15 run value.

Young left-handed hitters often struggle to handle that combination of velocity and location, undercutting the pitch and producing harmless fly balls instead of hard contact.

The Yankees are trading as a 57-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 61 cents. That edge is enough for me to hit the button.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Amazon Prime Video, CHSN

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

The Tampa Bay Rays are in a great spot to take care of business at home, where they've racked up an MLB-best 38 wins this season.

Like a lot of us, Texas Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore gets hammered when he travels, posting a 6.02 ERA on the road and surrendering five earned runs in each of his away starts this month. 

That's a concern against a Tampa Bay lineup that consistently does its best work at Tropicana Field.

Even if Gore keeps it close early, he's backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA in July.

On the other side, it's a bullpen day for the Rays, but that's not a bad thing! Tampa Bay's bullpen ranks among the league's best in both ERA and FIP this month, making a reliever carousel far less concerning than it sounds.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: RSN, Rays.TV

Jason Wilson's expert pick: Guardians vs Reds Over 8.5

Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer has been one of baseball's worst starters. His 0.6 WAR at FanGraphs is tied for seventh-worst among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings under their belts this season. It's easy to see why.

Singer's 4.53 ERA is bad, but his expected ERA (5.02) suggests things should be even worse. He's averaging 91.3 mph on his fastball (eighth percentile), and it's getting hammered. Even a lineup as inconsistent as the Cleveland Guardians can make him pay, especially with Jose Ramirez healthy and Chase DeLauter slashing .310/.371/.517 with four home runs and six doubles since the start of July.

The Reds bullpen is also unreliable, owning a 4.53 ERA as a unit with the league's worst walk rate (12.8%) among relief corps. So if Singer limits the damage, which is a dubious scenario, the bullpen hasn't exactly held things together.

But Joey Cantillo will serve up his own share of problems for Cleveland, especially when the likes of Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz step in against him. They've combined for 14 home runs off left-handed pitchers, and Elly is slashing .326/.398/.663 in the split while Stewart is at .284/.387/.526.

Finally, Great American Ballpark is seeing some of the best hitting conditions on the slate, according to BallparkPal, making Singer and Cantillo's night even less positive. For them, anyway. It suits our purposes just fine.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Guardians.TV, Reds.TV

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

It’s a nice enough day for baseball, even in New York City. So why not have a doubleheader, no?

The Braves returned RHP AJ Smith-Shawver from his rehabilitation assignment, reinstated him from the injured list, and appointed him as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader. AJ makes his first start since May 29th in Philadelphia. The Big Arm Smith-Shawver has had five rehab starts over 17 2/3 innings already. It’s not clear how many innings or pitches that he can provide today, or if Grant Holmes will throw multiple innings afterward. I know that it is expected to be mostly cloudy and 77 degrees at first pitch. So it appears that this game will be completed.

Making AJ the 27th man suggests that he will be optioned to Gwinnett after this game. His innings will be limited this season, but no one knows exactly what that means. It probably depends on his progress post-surgery. Let’s see AJ and the Braves get through today and then we can worry about it afterward.

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks Avoid Crushing Defeat with 12th Inning Win
Brandon Pfaadt gutted out seven innings of shutout ball and left the game with a 6-0 lead. If one blinked at that point, they would never have known it as the game was suddenly 7-7 going into extra innings.

Diamondbacks Escape with Win and More Paul Sewald Concerns
At least he is stumbling before the trade deadline, giving the front office time to evaluate their options for a potential replacement.

Is Paul Sewald on Closer Hot Seat?
After last night’s outing and combined with other issues creeping in since the break, the answer is a firm yes. Although, there’s a strong argument to be made he has been on that hot seat since he arrived in the desert.

Diamondbacks Fans React to Paul Sewald Meltdown
Paul Sewald has already greatly exceeded expectations this season. Nonetheless, as a closer, his recent run of form is anything but acceptable and the cosmos is making sure everyone knows about it.

Red Sox Rebuked Arizona’s Enquiries
The deal the Red Sox made with the Nationals is exactly the sort Mike Hazen was looking to make with the Red Sox. The problem for Arizona is that they didn’t have the trade chips necessary to even start the conversation. Sadly, this could become a common theme at the upcoming deadline.

Other Baseball News

Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates
Doubling down on the notion that the Diamondbacks will have difficulty finding suitable trade partners, they have no player listed in the top-50 or in the other players to watch, which has representatives from 23 other clubs.

12 Teams Desperate to Make a Deadline Move
If enough of these moves happen, Arizona might find the market more friendly for them as well.

Shane Bieber Walks Six in Two-Thirds of an Inning
As the trade deadline looms near, Shane Bieber just dropped the worst outing of his career.

Mets lineup

A.J. Ewing – CF
Francisco Lindor – SS
Bo Bichette – 3B
Carson Benge – RF
Jared Young – 1B
Jorge Polanco – DH
Tyrone Taylor – LF
Brett Baty – 2B
Francisco Alvarez – C

SP: Sean Manaea – LHP

Braves lineup

Ronald Acuna – RF
Drake Baldwin – DH
Matt Olson – 1B
Ozzie Albies – 2B
Michael Harris – CF
Mauricio Dubon – SS
Austin Riley – 3B
Eli White – LF
Joey Bart – C

SP: AJ Smith-Shawver – RHP

Broadcast info

First pitch: 1:10 PM ET
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

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We're halfway through the week! Let's keep it rolling with tonight's MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate. 

See what teams need to be on your MLB picks on Wednesday, July 29!

MLB moneyline picks for July 29

Matchup	Pick
Phillies vs Marlins	+163
Diamondbacks vs Pirates	+122
Blue Jays vs Nationals	+108
Orioles vs Tigers	+160
Braves vs Mets	+144
Brewers vs Giants	-117
Rockies vs Padres	+135
Rangers vs Rays	-133
Guardians vs Reds	-127
Yankees vs White Sox	-135
Royals vs Twins	+174
Cubs vs Cardinals	+100
Astros vs Angels	-127
Red Sox vs Athletics	+141
Mariners vs Dodgers	-147

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-29.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 29

Phillies vs Marlins: Marlins (+163)

Marlins win probability: 38%

Both Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Gusto have been dealing over their last few starts. At the same time, neither offense has done much at the plate, with both clubs posting a wRC+ below 100 over their last 12 games.

I can't justify laying $1.67 with the Philadelphia Phillies just because Luzardo is on the mound. Instead, I'll take a shot on the Fighting Fish to pull off the upset in this spot.

Diamondbacks vs Pirates: Diamondbacks (+122)

Diamondbacks win probability: 45%

Sure, last night's 15-run offensive explosion was a thrill ride for both sides, but I'm still not buying into this Pittsburgh Pirates offense. Over their last six games, Pittsburgh owns just a 67 wRC+, .260 wOBA, and .093 ISO. Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the hottest lineups in baseball during that stretch, posting a 144 wRC+, .382 wOBA, and .199 ISO.

Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't exactly been dominant this season, but I'll gladly back the more dangerous and productive offense.

Blue Jays vs Nationals: Nationals (+108)

Nationals win probability: 48%

Yeah, I'll gladly take the hottest offense in baseball as a home underdog simply because Trey Yesavage is on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays. Never mind the fact that Toronto has posted a wRC+ below 100 for more than a month, while carrying a barrel rate below 7% and a hard hit rate below 35% over its last 21 games. But sure, make Washington the dog because Zack Littell is starting.

Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have been scorching hot at the plate, posting a 158 wRC+, .919 OPS, .256 ISO, and a 40% hard hit rate over that same 21-game stretch. I'm more than happy to back the hotter lineup at plus money.

Orioles vs Tigers: Orioles (+160)

Orioles win probability: 38%

"But Tarik Skubal is on the mound?"

Okay... and who's scoring runs for the Detroit Tigers? Over their last 12 games, the Tigers own just an 89 wRC+, .294 wOBA, and .665 OPS. That's not exactly an offense I'm looking to lay -160 with.

On the other side, Trevor Rogers has been outstanding over his last five starts, posting a 1.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and allowing just a 5.88% barrel rate. Pair that with a Baltimore Orioles offense that's been heating up over its last 21 games, and I think this line is giving Skubal a little too much respect.

I'm not laying -160 simply because Skubal's on the mound. Give me the hotter offense behind another lefty who's been dealing.

Braves vs Mets: Mets (+144)

Mets win probability: 41%

Today marks A.J. Smith-Shawver's first start of the season for the Atlanta Braves. In 2025, he went 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He opens his campaign against a New York Mets lineup that has been swinging it well over the last 21 games, making for a difficult season debut for the 23-year-old.

On the other side, Sean Manaea gets the ball, and he's been about what you'd expect in 2026, not great. That said, the veteran left-hander has pitched better at home, where his strikeout rate gets a nice bump. Atlanta has also been striking out at a higher clip lately, which could play into Manaea's strengths.

Once again, I'll side with the underdog. Give me the Mets.

Brewers vs Giants: Brewers (-117)

Brewers win probability: 54%

I think we're getting an incredible price on the Milwaukee Brewers at +117 tonight. Some people will look at Shane Drohan's ERA over his last few starts and immediately run the other way, but the underlying metrics tell a much different story.

Over his last five starts, Drohan owns a 4.20 ERA but a 3.00 xERA. Zoom in even further, and over his last three starts he has a 5.00 ERA paired with an outstanding 2.55 xERA. He's also limiting walks and missing bats at a high rate during that stretch, which makes me believe positive regression is coming.

On the other side, Logan Webb is still an ace, but the San Francisco Giants offense has been far too inconsistent for me to trust. I'll gladly take the better, more complete team at plus money to get the job done on the road.

Rockies vs Padres: Rockies (+135)

Rockies win probability: 42%

There's no better opportunity for the Colorado Rockies offense to get back on track than against San Diego Padres right-hander Griffin Canning. Canning has been a fade machine, posting a 6.05 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and an 11.67% barrel rate over his last five starts.

Even with Colorado's offense stuck in a cold stretch, I'll continue looking for ways to fade Canning. He's simply been too hittable all season, and this feels like another spot where he gets knocked around.

Give me yet another underdog. Go Rockies.

Rangers vs Rays: Rays (-133)

Rays win probability: 57%

I have to side with the Tampa Bay Rays. MacKenzie Gore is a very fastball-heavy, strikeout-oriented left-hander, and that's not the type of profile I want backing against a Tampa Bay lineup that consistently puts the ball in play. While his expected metrics suggest he deserves better results, I don't think this is the matchup where that positive regression shows up.

Ian Seymour hasn't exactly been sharp lately, which is the biggest concern with this play. Even so, Gore's recent struggles and the matchup against this contact-heavy Rays lineup have me leaning toward Tampa Bay.

Give me the Rays to get it done.

Guardians vs Reds: Guardians (-127)

Guardians win probability: 56%

I think Joey Cantillo has a big night on the mound. Sure, the surface numbers aren't pretty, with a 6.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over his last three outings, but there's more to the story. During that stretch, he's posted a strikeout rate close to 30%, and now he gets one of the most swing-and-miss-happy lineups in baseball.

Over the Cincinnati Reds' last 60 at-bats against left-handed pitching, six hitters own a strikeout rate above 21.7%, five are at 26.7% or higher, and three are north of 30%. This feels like a spot where Cantillo can rack up the punchouts.

On the other side, Brady Singer owns a 4.86 xERA at home this season, giving Cleveland a solid opportunity to scratch across enough runs to back its starter. I think the Reds struggle at the plate tonight, and the Cleveland Guardians find a way to come out on top.

Yankees vs White Sox: Yankees (-135)

Yankees win probability: 57%

I think the Chicago White Sox slump continues tonight as they draw New York Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler, who has been one of the most dominant arms in baseball all season.

On the other side, Davis Martin hasn't been sharp lately, posting a 6.14 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and 1.36 WHIP over his last three starts. That's a tough profile to bring into a matchup against a Yankees lineup that's more than capable of taking advantage.

I think the Yankees keep rolling and pick up another win.

Royals vs Twins: Royals (+174)

Royals win probability: 36%

Joe Ryan deserves to be a -178 favorite? I don't see it. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.55 ERA, and it's been even worse lately with an 8.18 ERA and 6.05 xERA across his last three outings. I'll happily take +174 with the Kansas City Royals.

Neither offense has been anything to write home about, but the Twins have actually been worse. Over their last 12 games, Minnesota owns just an 85 wRC+, .293 wOBA, and .657 OPS.

At this price, I'll take the underdog every time. Give me the Royals.

Cubs vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+100)

Cardinals win probability: 50%

With the Chicago Cubs coming off a 10-run outburst against the St. Louis Cardinals last night, I like St. Louis to bounce back in this one against left-hander Matthew Boyd.

Historically, I don't love backing a team the day after a massive offensive explosion. Regression tends to show up, and this feels like a good spot for the Cardinals to respond. They've been stuck in a cold stretch at the plate, but I'm betting they find a way to snap out of it tonight.

Give me the Cardinals to secure a much-needed win.

Astros vs Angels: Astros (-127)

Astros win probability: 56%

Grayson Rodriguez. Is that enough? No?!

The Los Angeles Angels right-hander has been an absolute fade at home this season, posting a 10.58 ERA and 2.07 WHIP, while allowing a 47% hard-hit rate and 12.64% barrel rate. Pair that with an Angels offense that's gone cold, producing just a 93 wRC+, .302 wOBA, and .665 OPS over its last 12 games, and it's tough to make a case for L.A.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for weeks. It would genuinely surprise me if Rodriguez is the one who cools them off. Give me Houston.

Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+141)

Athletics win probability: 42%

Jacob Lopez has looked outstanding over his last three starts, posting a 1.64 ERA, 2.65 xERA, and an excellent 0.82 WHIP. On the other side, Patrick Sandoval has been solid for Boston as well, recording a 3.21 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.

Neither offense has been swinging the bats particularly well lately, which makes this feel like a low-scoring, tightly contested game. At that point, I'd much rather take the plus money with the Athletics than lay $1.44 with the Boston Red Sox.

Give me the value on Oakland.

Mariners vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-147)

Dodgers win probability: 60%

Seattle Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock has been dealing over his last five starts, while Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Eric Lauer has had his share of ups and downs.

Even so, I can't bring myself to back a Seattle offense that's posted just an 86 wRC+, .286 wOBA, .651 OPS, and .119 ISO over its last six games. The Dodgers have been the far better offense over the last month, and I trust that lineup much more in this matchup.

I'll happily roll with the Monstars from L.A. tonight.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.