Category: Baseball

Like a phoenix from the ashes, just like Daniel Espino the day before, George Valera returns to the Covering the Corner prospect rankings after not being included last year. Valera dominated the voting yesterday, earning 38.61% of the vote, beating out Jace Laviolette (28.6%) and Joey Oakie (12.7%). Valera had previously been ranked in every CTC top 20 from 2018 all the way to 2024.

I feel like I’ve been writing about him forever, but Valera’s journey was incredible, debuting at No. 10 in 2018 before he ever played a game in the Cleveland minor league system. He bumped up to No. 3 in 2019, dropped to No. 6 in 2020, moved up to No. 4 in 2021, soared all the way to No. 1 in 2022, dropped back to No. 3 in 2023, then to No. 6 in 2024 before being removed from the rankings entirely in 2025 after he’d been DFA’d by the team in the offseason following a major knee injury that required reconstruction.

It felt like everyone had given up on Valera — myself included — after he ruptured the patella tendon in his right knee attempting to make a catch on the outfield wall in September 2024. He also missed time due to suspension after making contact with an umpire while fighting an opposing team’s catcher in 2023. It seemed like that was the final nail in the coffin for the oft-injured, but always promising former top prospect.

He had consistently been excellent at almost every level, every year, a 162 wRC+ in 2018, a 165 wRC+ at High-A in 2021, reaching Triple-A in 2022 with a 123 wRC+, but injuries piled up. He broke his hamate bone in his right hand/wrist in 2018, strained his oblique in 2021, sustained another hamate injury in 2023, then strained his hamstring in 2024 before the knee injury.

It seemed his time with Cleveland was over after he’d been removed from the 40-man roster, but Valera re-signed with Cleveland on a minor league deal, then rehabbed his knee. He returned to Columbus for a whopping two games in early June 2025 before again hitting the injured list with right flank soreness. He returned again in late July and something was different this time. Valera played like a man with nothing to lose.

The talented Dominican crushed baseballs in Columbus, even hitting for the cycle on Aug. 22. Whispers turned into screams from the rooftops for him to be promoted to Cleveland and as soon as September rolled around … it happened. Valera made his debut Sept. 1, then picked up his first MLB hit by socking a ball off the green monster in his second career game. He blasted his first career home run off Joe Ryan on Sept. 20. In his 48 plate appearances spanning 16 games at the MLB level, he slashed .220/.333/.415, good for an above average 113 wRC+.

Valera then had a moment he’ll never forget, crushing a home run in his second ever at bat in the MLB Playoffs, a first-inning solo shot off Casey Mize that helped lead Cleveland to a 6-1 game two victory.

With Cleveland releasing Jhonkensy Noel and Will Brennan and not signing additional outfield help in free agency, a starting outfield job appears to be Valera’s to lose for the upcoming 2026 season.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number 14 in the Guardians’ loaded farm system and you now have a whopping 10 players to choose from! Your options are below:

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Juneiker Caceres, OF (Age 18)
2025 (CPX) 160 PA, .289/.419/.469, 3 HR, 5 SB, 16.9 BB%, 11.3 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (A): 130 PA, .250/.331/.345, 1 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 13.1 K%, 103 wRC+

Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.

Dauri Fernandez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 176 PA, .333/.398/.558, 6 HR, 16 SB, 9.1 BB%, 12.5 K%, 147 wRC+
2025 (A): 24 PA, .273/.250/.318, 0 HR, 2 SB, 0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 57 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top performers in the Arizona Complex League in 2025. Undersized, but makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out often. Earned a small taste of full-season ball at the end of the year.

Franklin Gomez, LHP (Age 20)
2025 (A): 14 G, 82.0 IP, 1.85 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 21.4 K%, 11.7 BB%, 1.09 WHIP
2025 (A+): 6 GS, 48.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.83 WHIP

Acquired from the Mets in a trade for international bonus cash, Gomez lit up Single-A in his age-19 season, then improved his walk and strikeout numbers after being promoted to High-A.

Yorman Gomez, RHP (Age 23)
2025 (A+): 17 G, 76.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 27.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.11 WHIP
2025 (AA): 10 G, 45.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 28.0 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.25 WHIP

Venezuelan prospect who broke out in with increased velocity in 2025, putting up nearly identical numbers at both High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron. Gomez was added to Cleveland’s 40-man roster.

Josh Hartle, LHP (Age 22)
2025 (A+): 22 GS, 103.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 24.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.05 WHIP
2025 (AA): 2 GS, 10.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 16.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Acquired from Pittsburghin the Spencer Horwitz trade, Hartle was one of Cleveland’s most successful starting pitchers in its minor league system in 2025. Stands 6-foot-6, but doesn’t have a ton of velocity.

Jace LaViolette, OF (Age 22)
2025 (NCAA) 262 PA, .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 21.8 BB%, 25.2K%, 120 wRC+

Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.

Joey Oakie, RHP (Age 19)
2025 (ACL): 9 GS, 35.0 IP, 7.46 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 27.6 K%, 13.5 BB%, 1.69 WHIP
2025 (A): 6 GS, 24.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 30.7 K%, 14.9 BB%, 1.32 WHIP

Cleveland’s 3rd round pick in 2024 out of high school, Oakie got off to a rough start in the Complex League, but then absolutely dominated when promoted to Single-A Lynchburg with a pair of 11 strikeout performances.

Austin Peterson, RHP (Age 26)
2025 (AA): 11 GS, 55.0 IP, 1.47 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 23.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.84 WHIP
2025 (AAA): 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 20.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 1.37 WHIP

Absolutely dominated Double-A to begin 2025 looking well on his way to repeating his tremendous 2024 season, but then struggled after an early-season promotion to Triple-A. Remains on the 40-man roster.

Gabriel Rodriguez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 122 PA, .294/.393/.402, 1 HR, 11 SB, 12.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 116 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top recent international signings, Rodriguez put up strong offensive numbers in his stateside debut in his age-18 season in 2025. Expected to transition to full-season ball this year.

Alfonsin Rosario, OF (Age 21)
2025 (A+) 354 PA, .268/.362/.490, 16 HR, 12 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (AA): 145 PA, .211/.303/.391, 5 HR, 2 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.1 K%, 105 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.

Our list so far:
1. Chase DeLauter, LHH OF
2. Travis Bazzana, LHH 2B
3. Parker Messick, LHP
4. Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/RF
5. Angel Genao, SH SS
6. Braylon Doughty, RHP
7. Cooper Ingle, LHH C
8. Khal Stephen, RHP
9. Juan Brito, SH 2B/1B/RF/3B
10. Jaison Chourio, SH OF
11. Kahlil Watson, LHH OF
12. Daniel Espino, RHP
13. George Valera, LHH OF

Prior entries:

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder
• Austin Riley
• Drake Baldwin
• Ronald Acuña Jr.
• Chris Sale
• Spencer Strider

The portent of the 2024 Atlanta Braves season being a morass of injuries was Sean Murphy getting hurt and leaving the first game of the season. The portent of the 2025 Atlanta Braves season being… really dumb and no fun was Jurickson Profar eating a PED suspension after the first series of the season.

By the time Profar came back, his new team was more or less dead in the water as far as playoff potential. Profar also didn’t really do anything to revive them — his 1.3 fWAR in 371 PAs, which was only achieved due to a fair bit of xwOBA overperformance, was basically a bog-standard rate. It was better than Alex Verdugo, but it wasn’t actually good.

Career-to-date, status

Because he made his MLB debut at age 19, Profar has been around foooreeeeeveeeer, though his career was largely nondescript. He didn’t start sticking as a regular until 2018 (at age 25); he was replacement level in over 700 career PAs before that point. (A minorly funny thing was that he spent all of 2014 and 2015 in the minors. In 2013, he had 324 PAs and a 75 wRC+. In 2016, he had 307 PAs and a 75 wRC+. Heh.) After getting regular playing time, he largely oscillated between being an average regular and something worse. His aggregate hitting was fine, but he played poor defense at an already-low skill position, which tanked his value. He hit rock bottom in 2023, where his -1.6 fWAR was the worst mark among anyone in baseball. (He wasn’t the worst on a rate basis, though. For example, then-teammate Harold Castro managed -1.5 fWAR in just 270 PAs, while it took Profar 521 to “rack up” his -1.6 mark.)

Fortunately for Profar, he had a renaissance of sorts in 2024, as he broke out offensively (139 wRC+ without outhitting his xwOBA by any meaningful amount) and even went back to just plain bad defensively relative to his 2023. That, and potentially a lack of anything else to spend moolah on, led the Braves to sign him to a three-year, $42 million contract ahead of the 2025 season. The Braves “saved” about $6 million as a result of the PED suspension, but Profar is still owed $15 million in each of 2026 and 2027.

Recent performance

It’s hard to know what to make of Profar’s 2025, other than the fact that I guess, in the end, he more or less ended up where he was expected to be (rate-wise), just in a lot fewer games due to the suspension. The fact that it came with a big xwOBA overperformance could be a concern. Profar’s topline was a 122 wRC+ — better than any mark he achieved other than 2024 — and 1.3 fWAR in 371 PAs, which is right around 2 WAR per 600 PAs. Unfortunately, Profar’s xwOBA was just .322 compared to a .346 wOBA; he actually had a higher xwOBA in each of 2018-2020. In addition, his defense ended up somewhere between the horrorshow that was 2023 (-13 OAA-based runs in about 800 innings) and the 2024 improvement (-6 in about 1,200 innings).

With fewer than 400 PAs and a lengthy layoff, it’s hard to read too much into Profar’s 2025 vis-a-vis his 2024. The key factor is that his big “discovery” from 2024, i.e., just whacking the snot out of the ball while continuing to make a high rate of contact, basically didn’t carry over. Profar’s well-above-average exit velocity from 2024, a total divergence from the slappy numbers he posted earlier in his career, once again declined to below-average in 2025, as did his hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate didn’t really change, and he continued to a walk a ton, like he did in 2024. He chased more than in 2024 but not any more than earlier in his career. He was more passive than before (like many of his teammates), and also made even more contact than before. Fundamentally, though, it’s hard to believe that he can regain something closer to 2024 without straight-up hitting the ball harder, and he absolutely did not hit it hard enough in 2025.

Forecasting

There’s nothing that weird in the point estimates below. You can compare then with the green stuff above. Profar will probably play a bit, and be average-y…

… at least, that’s the “safe” bet stochastically. In reality, while Profar’s ceiling isn’t super-high and it seems like he shouldn’t be a very variable outcome guy, the “problem” is that he has an absolute disaster scenario with reasonable weight (a la earlier in his career, and 2013), so the point estimate is dragged down by that in a way that just isn’t true for other players, who have some sort of skillset floor they can rely on. Basically, what I’m saying is that because Profar’s lows can get very low, when he gets a 1.5-2.0ish point estimate, that means there’s also a pretty good high on the other end to counterbalance. To wit:

Basically, there’s a substantially horrible tail on the left side that just kind of keeps going. If Profar had a “normal” stop-loss that didn’t involve a real chance that he’d be substantially below replacement and continue to get playing time anyway, his point estimate would be much higher.

But, he doesn’t, so what you get is this sort of bizarrely-skewed distribution where his mode outcome might be pretty close to his optimal (reasonable) outcome, yet the downside is just so bad that you can’t bank on him producing all that much. I have no idea if Steamer and ZiPS “think” something similar directly, but I do note that as far as ZiPS goes, his 20th percentile WAR is below replacement, where he’s joined only by Mauricio Dubon with that being the case. ZiPS, though, does have his 80th percentile WAR as being only slightly above 2, which is where IWAG totally diverges as you can see from the above.

Still, he’s basically “hit the ball hard again” away from being quite useful, and he already did it once, so… maybe? Please?

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Jurickson Profar produce in 2026?
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

Greetings! It’s that magical time of the year when baseball pundits publish their annual rankings and Orioles fans can argue about whether Samuel Basallo should be the fourth-best prospect in baseball or the eighth. But beyond the fortunes of individual prospects, where does the organization as a whole stack up heading into 2026?

The Orioles’ farm system has seen significant turnover in the past six months. The team conducted a full sell-off at the July 2025 trade deadline, moving Cedric Mullins, Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and several relievers in exchange for 16 prospects—11 of them pitchers—highlighted by lefty Boston Bateman (from San Diego), right-hander Juaron Watts-Brown (Toronto), and hard-throwing Wellington Aracena and control artist Anthony Nunez (Mets). The emphasis on arms addressed long-standing criticisms of the organization’s pitching development. Then, unexpectedly in December, the Orioles flipped some of that newly-acquired depth to land Shane Baz from the Rays, sending out four prospects including 2025 draft picks Caden Bodine and Slater de Brun, along with pitching prospect Michael Forret. The net effect: Baltimore restocked with young, high-upside arms in the summer, then cashed in some of that capital for a major league starter with three years of control.

In the last month, three major outlets have now weighed in on farm system rankings: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and MLB Pipeline’s executive poll. The results paint the Orioles of a system in transition—one that’s graduated significant talent but still has plenty of reasons for optimism.

The Rankings

Let’s start with where everyone has the Birds. ESPN slots the Orioles at 13th overall, while Keith Law has Baltimore ranked somewhat higher in his tiered system (No. 9 overall, third tier). And in MLB Pipeline’s executive poll, the Orioles received votes for best farm system but didn’t crack the top tier—a notable slide from the days when Baltimore was the consensus No. 1 system in baseball.

For context, Milwaukee now sits atop ESPN’s rankings, followed by Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Law agrees on Milwaukee, with Los Angeles and Seattle make up the rest of his Top 3. MLB Pipeline gives the top three spots to LA, Seattle, and Detroit, putting the Brewers fifth. When it comes to prospect depth, the Brewers have become something of a model organization, excelling on the international market (Jesús Made, Jackson Chourio) and finding later-round draft gems. It wasn’t that long ago when the Orioles were the ones being held up as the gold standard. Six consecutive No. 1 farm system rankings from MLB Pipeline feels like ancient history now.

The good news is that the evaluators remain bullish on the system’s top-end talent. Basallo continues to appear in the top ten on every list, with ESPN ranking him fourth overall. Keith Law has him at No. 8. The consensus is clear: when healthy and behind the plate, Basallo has as much offensive upside as any catching prospect in recent memory.

McDaniel notes that the Orioles “sent four players from their extensive farm depth to the Rays in the Shane Baz deal” but still “ranks seventh in quality depth.” That trade, which brought back the talented but oft-injured right-hander, represents the kind of calculus the Orioles have had to make as they try to balance building for the future with winning now.

Beyond Basallo, the evaluators identify Trey Gibson and Dylan Beavers as the other blue-chip pieces in the system. All three should see significant major league time in 2026—Basallo and Beavers essentially graduated last August and will be roster staples from Opening Day.

Law’s list differs somewhat from the others. He has five Orioles in his top 100: Basallo at No. 8, shortstop Wehiwa Aloy at No. 73, outfielder Nate George at No. 78, catcher/outfielder Ike Irish at No. 85, and outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. at No. 97. Notably absent from Law’s rankings is Beavers, who appeared at No. 21 on Baseball America’s list. Law is particularly enthusiastic about George, describing him as a player who “plays like his hair’s on fire” with “All-Star upside” if he can develop above-average power.

One recurring theme across the rankings is that the Orioles’ system is a bit thinner behind the top names than it used to be. That’s the natural consequence of a pipeline working exactly as intended. When Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez were all in the minors together, the system looked unstoppable. Now those players are either establishing themselves at the major league level, and not necessarily with the Orioles.

The executive poll is perhaps most telling here. When asked which teams “hoard prospects the most,” the Orioles have slid down the list—they used to be right at the top with Cleveland. Baltimore still appears in votes for best farm system and best at developing hitters, but the organization is no longer the unanimous choice it once was.

McDaniel offers some optimism on this front, noting “there’s a nice layer beyond them of nearly 20 prospects who could be in the top 200 prospects in the sport next winter.” Names like Luis De León, the 22-year-old lefty who dominated the Arizona Fall League, could be poised to rise. The system isn’t empty; it’s just younger than it was a few years ago.

The practical implications of these rankings matter less than the talent actually on the field. Basallo and Beavers will be in Baltimore fighting for Rookie of the Year honors, potentially earning the team an extra draft pick if either wins. Gibson and Bradfield are a level away and could debut this season. The pipeline, while not quite as loaded as it was during the peak rebuild years, continues to flow.

The Orioles also appear in one poll’s top for “best at developing hitters” and receive mention for their work on the international market. The organizational infrastructure that built this system remains intact, even as the headliners have moved on to Camden Yards.

Is 13th overall where Orioles fans want to see their farm system ranked? Probably not. But it’s worth remembering what that ranking represents: a system that has successfully graduated multiple All-Star caliber players while still retaining a top-five overall prospect in Basallo. The goal was never to have the best farm system in perpetuity—it was to build a sustainable winner.

The next wave is coming. It just might take a little longer to arrive than the last one did.

ZiPS' projected standings for the 2026 MLB season portend good things for the Mets.

The projections, via Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs, "are the result of a million simulations."

Szymborski explains:

"These are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection. These have a tighter range than the actual standings because we don’t expect every team to hit their 50th-percentile projection, but rather for three teams, on average, to beat their 90th-percentile projection, six to beat their 80th-percentile projection, and so on."

In other words, the win totals in the projections skew a bit low. 

Now, the projections...

• The Mets finish with a record of 89-73, good for second place in the NL East (behind the 91-71 Phillies)
• That 89-73 record gives the Mets the third-best record in the NL (behind the Phillies and 96-66 Dodgers) and fifth-best record in MLB (the Blue Jays and Red Sox are both projected to finish 90-72).
• In this scenario, the Mets would be the top Wild Card team
• The other projected playoff teams are the Cubs (87-75, NL Central winner), Braves and Brewers (both 86-76 while making it in as Wild Card teams)
• The Mets' World Series win percentage is 6.1, behind only the Dodgers (18.2), Phillies (7.6), and Astros (6.8)

On the Mets' offseason and outlook, Szymborski writes:

Despite the loss of Pete Alonso, ZiPS thinks the Mets had a pretty effective offseason. 

The Mets have had a transformational winter, moving on from Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil.

New York's main moves have been signings of Bo Bichette, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, and Luke Weaver, and trades for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr.

Who is he and where did he come from?

He’s Nate Baez and he comes from Oro Valley, Arizona. Oro Valley looks like this:

…so I can only assume that baseball is Baez’s second career after robbing stagecoaches didn’t work out.

The Red Sox just acquired him from the Twins organization in exchange for Triston Gray — whose entire tenure with the Red Sox lasted all of two months in the middle of the offseason, and who will not be the next Romy Gonzalez after all.

What position does he play?

Baez was known for his defensive versatility in college at Arizona State, where he played every single position except for shortstop, center field, and right field. In the pros he’s split his time between catcher and first base.

Is he any good?

He’s better than you, but his professional destiny is probably that of an organizational catcher who might get a cup of coffee in the big leagues one day.

The 24-year-oldBaez reached AA for the first time in his career this past season, where he hit .237/.297/.400 with 5 homers in 51 games. The best part of his offensive game is probably his patience and batting eye. At the time of his promotion to AA last year, he was rocking a 17.4% walk rate in the single-A Midwest league, which would have been the second-best walk rate in the league had he qualified. But some statistical inflation is to be expected with players who are old for their level, and that rate dropped down to 6.1% in AA.

There isn’t much of a scouting report on him as a catcher yet, as, frankly, he hasn’t spent much time as a catcher. Since being drafted in 2022, he’s started a grand total of 110 games behind the plate, after catching just 46 games at Arizona State. But he did throw out 14 of 47 would-be base-stealers at AA last season, which is a pretty solid return for someone who doesn’t have much experience behind the plate.

Show me a cool highlight.

Though he’s only 25 total homers over 229 career minor leage games, Baez actually had two multi-homer games in 2024 alone. Here’s the second:

What’s he doing in his picture up there?

Getting ready to play third, because he heard the Sox might have an opening there…

What’s his role on the 2026 Red Sox?

While he’ll be at Spring Training, Baez is not currently on the 40-man roster and almost certainly will not have a role on the 2026 Red Sox. In fact, the primary motivation in the Gray-Baez swap was opening up a spot on the 40-man roster for Ranger Suárez. So in light of the fact that Craig Breslow managed to get some value in a situation in which he would have otherwise needed to DFA someone for nothing, it was a good deal, even if Baez never makes it to the big leagues. And who knows — catcher is the most demanding position and one that takes years to master, and Baez has effectively just begun his journey behind the plate. Maybe he’ll improve quickly and turn into a plus defensive player with a chance to have a career as a glove-first guy.

In mechanical engineering, it’s common knowledge that Contraptions (sometimes referred to informally as “Machines”) are fed by Fodder. The term of venery for an individual piece of Fodder is Pile. Some examples in a sentence: “When new Fodder joins the Pile, it’s better for everyone; The Contraption was beginning to hunger.” or, “Alex Hoppe, The Contraption demands to be fed, and as a recent addition to the Pile of Fodder, you are its chosen fuel, its sustenance, its very lifeblood. Prepare to be Contrapted.”

That, at least, is the hope that anyone who follows the Mariners should have upon reading “Seattle has acquired [pitcher they have not heard of] in exchange for [a minor-league just-a-guy hitter].” The organization has developed quite the reputation as a pitching lab. That reputation is justly earned. From drafting an entire rotation’s worth of MLB starting pitchers in just four drafts to being a career-changing destination for the castaway and the non-tendered, Seattle has proven that they’ve built something special. 

They’ve built a smooth, well-oiled Machine. A Contraption, carefully engineered to take, for example, pitchers like Alex Hoppe and transform them into, for example, pitchers like 2021-2023 Paul Sewald. 

What is a pitcher like Alex Hoppe? Hoppe, acquired from Boston this off-season, is a 2022 6th round draft pick that has steadily risen through Boston’s farm as a pure relief pitcher. He comes without pedigree, never landing on Boston’s top 30 prospects list. He’s mostly been a middle relief guy, only ever recording six saves in a season. He’s achieved mostly acceptable results thus far without ever really excelling. 

There’s almost no easily-accessible video of him besides this one Instagram reel from Boston’s Player Development account.

Red Sox Player Development (@redsoxplayerdev) • Instagram reel

So, from afar, his repertoire stands out to me as looking almost like the antithesis of modern pitch design philosophy. 

What’s sexy in pitching these days? Low-slot, high-band rising fastballs with an absurd IVB or VAA, if you’re a pronator, or a seam-shifted wake sinker that tumbles if you’re a supinator (or both, if you’re Bryan Woo). Hoppe throws a four-seamer that doesn’t get an insane amount of ride, and given the 52.3° arm angle, has a pretty poor VAA. He also has a cutter that shows solid cut and acceptable ride. 

Also sexy: frisbee sweepers with bonkers horizontal movement and almost no drop, and perhaps even positive IVB. Hoppe throws a sharp, downward 11-5 slider that bites sometimes, but can also be a bit slack-jawed. This means that it overlays with his cutter quite a bit in movement profile. 

As for offspeed pitches, the tumbling, low-spin splitters or the Skenesian splinkers are hot, as is the new “kick change”. Last season, Hoppe sported a new changeup that’s relatively mediocre, and was deployed exclusively against lefties.

Today’s pitch-design landscape feels like an arms race – some team or player builds something new and weird, identifies some trait or movement that makes life hell for hitters, and leans into it. Everyone else follows suit, and suddenly everywhere you look, you’re seeing these new pitches, or new varieties of old ones. Hoppe’s offerings, by comparison, are simple and unextraordinary. 

That isn’t necessarily a problem, but what definitely is, is that he has not demonstrated the ability to control the ball – he ran a 12.3 BB% rate in AA/AAA last season. For a relief pitcher, that is…not good!

At this point, Hoppe is rather raw, but that’s okay. Being polished and already flashing above-average pitches with good stats isn’t a prerequisite for becoming Contrapted. The opposite is probably more true – what makes the Mariners pitching development team so uniquely good at this is their ability to see things that others don’t. 

What do they see in Hoppe? There’s a few things that catch my eye. 

The first major one is that arm angle. His average arm angle of 52.3° is well more than a standard deviation higher than the mean arm angle (about 36° for pitchers with over 300 pitches thrown last season).

This is a chart showing arm angle distribution from MLB last season, controlling for the top 5 outliers on both ends for data cleanliness. Hoppe currently lives in the third right-most of these bars, with an arm angle higher than about 90% of the sample. Not quite outlier-high, but pretty dang high. 

Another thing that catches my attention is that while he ranks quite highly in Whiff%, Chase% and K%, he allows very high exit velocity and Hard-Hit% – he more or less turns batters into Khris Davis. He might be in the category of “effectively wild”. Luckily, because his groundball rate is also exceptionally high, (55% vs 42% average in MLB last season), he hasn’t been punished for that…yet. 

He had a pretty high BABIP last season (.347), which, in the face of letting batters make powerful contact with the ball, makes sense, but it’s also indicates some unluckiness. He also had a generous difference between his xwOBA (.278) and his wOBA (.318), once again showing that he may have underperformed last season relative ot his true talent.

It’s hard for us to say, from the outside, what the keen, hawk-like eyes of The Contraption have identified in Hoppe as ideal sustenance. Perhaps they prize that higher arm angle in a moment of low angles. A lot of the pitchers at the higher end of that spectrum have been raising theirs even further over the last couple of years, and no one on the Mariners besides another relatively new acquisition, Luke Jackson, has an arm angle over 44°. Maybe they’ve identified biomechanical tweaks that could enable him to control the zone, while also adjusting the pitch profile. As a reliever, after all, you’re really ever just one lights-out pitch away from being an impact arm.

If it were any other organization, I would feel silly for thinking this much about a reliever acquired for a 14th-round catcher. It would be safe to say that we simply swapped org guys. It’s still a decently likely outcome. With Seattle, though, it’s hard not to think that he’s been deemed Contraptable, and in a year or two they’ll have created yet another high-leverage bullpen arm out of simple Fodder. 

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PS: I’d be remiss if I didn’t include this. Shoutout Sweezo #sweezo

In arguably the greatest World Series of the decade, the Dodgers went all in with their starting pitching to get the job done in a back-and-forth seven game series against the Toronto Blue Jays. This included Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitching on zero days rest to complete Game 7, while other starters such as Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow were given little time to recuperate for their efforts in the final two games of the series.

For Snell, the toll taken to his arm has been heavy this offseason, and as reported by Jack Harris of the California Post, it has limited his throwing program since the series’ conclusion. This could potentially render Snell unavailable for the beginning of the season, as the team is attempting to prioritize having their entire rotation at maximum health by opening day.

“You want to ramp up, but I gotta take my time and get healthy… I feel like I’m doing the right thing. I feel good. I’ve been throwing. It feels better. In the postseason, I gave everything I had for that. But on the front end of spring, I’ll have to be patient and let my body get to 100%.”

Snell notably spent four months on the injured list after his first two starts in a Dodger uniform last year, and the hope for both sides is to avoid having history repeat itself.

Links

Miguel Rojas took to his Instagram story to announce that he will not be representing Team Venezuela for the World Baseball Classic. In a statement translated from Spanish, Rojas wrote, “I am very sad today… a real shame to not be able to represent my country and to put the flag on my chest. In this occasion, age wasn’t just a number.” Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports that the main reason for Rojas’ decision was due to insurance issues.

Game 3 of the 2025 World Series will go down as one of the longest postseason games in baseball history, and for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, emotions flared up during the 18-inning marathon. Friedman recounted his flare-up during an appearance on the Dodgers Territory podcast.

“Something I’m not very proud of; I may or may not have spiked a barstool in that Game 3, and it’s because of the range of emotions. Will Smith hits a ball to center that in my mind is definitely a homer, and Varsho goes back and catches it. The excitement of the homer to the catch next inning, I might have let the barstool slip.”

Andrew Friedman says he spiked a barstool during Game 3 of the World Series. 😂 pic.twitter.com/HghVi7tawU

— Dodgers Territory (@LADTerritory) January 29, 2026

World Baseball Classic news! Salvy and Maikel are going to be teammates:

Garcia was named Thursday to Team Venezuela ahead of the upcoming tournament. He is the second Royals player on the team — catcher/first baseman Salvador Perez will captain the Venezuelan squad when the WBC begins in early March…

Now, Garcia will display his talent on a global scale. He joins a Venezuelan team that includes MLB stars Ronald Acuña Jr., Jackson Chourio and Wilyer Abreu, among others.

Four other Royals are taking part in the World Baseball Classic. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. will represent the United States; first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and outfielder Jac Caglianone will play for Italy; and pitcher Seth Lugo will suit up for Puerto Rico.

MLB.com has not picked up the story yet, but the official Twitter account of Team Dominican Republic announced another Royal addition yesterday afternoon:

¡Estévez estará en el Clásico! 🔥⚾️
Carlos Estévez defenderá el equipo dominicano en el #WorldBaseballClassic 🇩🇴#DominicanoYYapic.twitter.com/ahXqSQgnOB

— Selección Dominicana de Béisbol (@_losdominicanos) January 29, 2026

Guess who has two thumbs and tickets to a Team Italy game featuring Vinnie and Jac? They’ll be playing Team Brazil, which has on its coaching staff – you guessed it: Frank Stallone!

Wait, that would be silly. Of course, it’s the “first Brazilian-born player to win a World Series”. He’s the author of many triples and a notable walk-off grand slam: it’s Paulo Orlando!

Speaking of Salvy, he’s reminding everyone to come to Royals Rally on Saturday:

ICYMI, the Royals signed Eli Morgan to a minor league deal yesterday. Max has you covered.

It’s only a quick mention, but Dan Szymborski (Szymborski! Szymborski!) updated ZIPS. Guess who is currently projected to have 83 wins and end up in 2nd-ish in the AL Central?

The AL Central is a fairly low-ceiling environment, so each team has some realistic chance to prevail. The Tigers are good, but their lineup is short on actual stars, and the natural risk of pitcher injury means that they don’t get 100% Tarik Skubal in a lot of their simulations. And without 100% Skubal, this team looks a lot less intimidating. The Royals have some holes, but the left side of the infield is crazy-good and the pitching is on relatively safe ground. The Guardians have lineup concerns and a rather low-impact, though stable, starting rotation, and ZiPS doesn’t believe the Twins are anywhere near as bad as much of baseball thinks.

The division is weak enough that there’s even a chance that the White Sox steal the thing. The team isn’t actually good at the moment, but unlike last season, they haven’t larded the April lineup with a bunch of older retreads. Every starting hitter, with the probable exception of Andrew Benintendi, has some cognizable breakout potential. Taking a risk like signing Munetaka Murakami is exactly what the White Sox should be doing, and I don’t often say the White Sox are doing exactly what the White Sox should be doing.

The Coun— Blog’s Number of the Day is three! Ah-ah-ah!

• Michael Coyle at Royals Keep: A Look At Three Relievers The Royals Could Add Before Spring Training Opens
• Caleb Moody at KOK: 3 remaining free agents who could address Royals’ lingering outfield needs
• Mike Gillespie at KOK: 3 Royals with most to gain from hot 2026 spring training performances

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One of the local schools is doing a musical version of Shrek for their spring play. I didn’t realize there were six movies in the franchise, with a seventh, Shrek 5, set to come out in 2027. So, with my trusty library card, I set out to watch the entire Shrek oeuvre (or at least the feature film portion of it). If you’ve missed the 2000-word Friday Rumblings screeds or movie reviews: we’re back, baby!

Shrek (2001) – The original still holds up. If you had asked me for the best animated movies of the first decade of the 2000s, the list would have basically been films from the legendary Pixar Eleven and Shrek. And it still feels almost as fresh as when it came out. It was still creative to subvert expectations, rather than cliché, and this movie starts it in the opening sequence. The movie does this with humor, mixing timeless comedy tropes like the odd couple with amazing jokes like the Muffin Man gag or Disney shade. It’s immature, but not too gross, most of the time. And it works on multiple levels with tons of jokes that go right over kids’ heads. The plot starts out as a buddy pic that is deftly turned on its head when Fiona enters the picture, adding an unexpected romance plot. Even the heart of the movie, a moral about acceptance, is askew from what you expect. Setting more trends, it mixed modern and classic music in a way that Disney was not doing at the time, and it’s the first credit sequence sing-along I can remember. I guess if you wanted to make a complaint, the animation looks a little dated. But it’s not bad – it’s just limited, a lot like the original Toy Story. There are scenes where it leans into a hand-drawn animation style to make up for the lack of polygons that computers could push back then – you can see the textures are lacking if you compare it to future movies, but that almost feels like complaining that The Ten Commandments doesn’t look as sharp when viewed in 4K. While Dreamworks had the critically acclaimed The Prince of Egypt in its early years, this was the runaway hit they needed to compete with Disney and Pixar and it won the Animated Feature Film Oscar over Pixar’s Monsters, Inc.

Shrek 2 (2004) – I remember thinking at the time that this movie had one of the biggest cases of sequelitis that I can remember. Upon rewatch, I may have been over the top of that assessment, but the sequelitis is definitely there. It’s just not as fresh: there are a lot of parodies in the opening – cheap jokes but not creative, original ones. Our main duo falls into and out of character. Meanwhile, the plot smashes together the cliches of “meet the parents” and “swamp (farm) boy goes to the California big city”. I don’t care for cringey humor, where we drag our characters through awkward or embarrassing situations for laughs. There was very little in the first movie, but the sequel is swimming in it, particularly in Act 2. Similarly, we had the tired trope of a communication misunderstanding between Donkey and Shrek for 10 minutes before things were sorted out. It’s just wasted screen time. That said, the movie still has its charms. There are a number of creative scenes like the parent dinner, the Fairy Godmother reveal, and the introduction of a character worthy of spinoffs: Puss in Boots. The movie takes a while to get out of the gate, but it mostly comes together in the second half. Sure, there are missteps like the “Hero” gingerbread scene going on too long, but it starts to feel more like the freshness and heart of the first one.

Shrek The Third (2007) – This one has the worst ratings of the entire franchise and it earns them. I know I said the last one had sequelitis, but there are moments where this movie felt like it was created by a committee of studio executives. It starts with a reasonable enough premise: Charming wants revenge and gets the villains to join forces, but it doesn’t do much with that. For much of the movie, Shrek, Donkey, and Puss are off on another adventure while Fiona gets sidelined (again), save for some pregnancy jokes. We jump into a college coming-of-age movie that didn’t belong and then shoehorn in a mentoring journey with Arthur to get Shrek over parenting fears. It’s lacking in sincerity so you never really buy Arthur’s turn, and there are just too many other plots going on, none of which feel organic. And a lot of the jokes just go on too long in this movie. There are times when the series tries to remind you that it’s not just a sequel replaying the greatest hits – Shrek slams the door on Puss trying to reuse the eyes joke from the last movie, for instance. Act 3 is decent, between the play-within-a-play and the rescue. The movie made gobs of money – it ended its run as the 3rd highest-grossing animated movie of all time. However, it’s starting to feel like the franchise’s time is almost up.

Shrek Forever After (2010) – After the critical failure but commercial success of its predecessor, the fourth Shrek movie plays it safe. The setup is eminently relatable and well done for any parent: Shrek has a midlife crisis. That leads us to Rumpelstiltskin and a mostly paint-by-numbers “It’s a Wonderful Life” plot. It’s very predictable, eminently safe, and a little more cringe than any of the previous movies. If you look closely, it’s never really resolved, except to pat Shrek on the head and tell him: “be glad for what you have because it could always be worse”. However, even with this worn, formulaic plot, there’s a freshness that comes from putting our characters in a new situation. To the writers’ credit, the characters rarely feel like caricatures – a trap that’s almost impossible to avoid after so many sequels. There were no chances taken to make it as fresh as the first or even second, but it goes down much smoother than the third movie.

Puss in Boots (2011) – A spinoff of a kindof interesting side character of a series that was a bit long in the tooth? Expectations were low. But Antonio Banderas, Salma Hayek, and Zach Galifanakis treat this as more than a mere payday and really elevate the film. The movie is sharp, fun, and pretty – but this is the first movie in the series that has felt light and airy, almost forgettable. There’s an origin story, betrayal, adventure, more betrayal, romance, more adventure, and exultation. You want the movie to slow down a little and let the scenes breathe, but then it probably loses its wit and charm.

Hey, we’re only at like 1500 words and that includes the Royals stuff. Hmm…

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (2022) – Where. did. this. come. from? Shrek is still the best movie in the franchise, but this is easily the second-best. This was a spinoff of a tired series that had languished for more than a decade. And they came up with something that took a one-note side character through a meaty movie that combines some of the best qualities of The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly; The Wizard of Oz; and the Spider-Verse? What?

The movie starts with an action set piece that would feel right at home in the Spider-Verse movies* – full of fast action and faster quips. However, the movie quickly leaves behind the airy nothingness of its predecessor for serious reflection. That’s because death arrives, both literally (Puss dies) and… um, literally (the Anton Chigurh-like wolf that chases him thereafter).

_{*sidebar: Can 2027 get here already? Beyond the Spider-Verse is my most anticipated movie of anything announced. Please, please, please, stick the landing, Lord and Miller.}

Reviews remind me just how concise and wordsmithy that professional critics can be. I’m going to let a couple that are cited on Wikipedia do a better job than I could:

IGN’s Rafael Motamayor gave a rating of 9 out of 10 and wrote: “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish mixes stunning animation with a poignant, surprisingly mature story to deliver the Shrek franchise’s answer to Logan we didn’t know we needed.” …Nate Richard of Collider gave the film an A−, saying: “Nothing in Puss in Boots: The Last Wish feels lazy, it more than justifies the long wait. It is not only one of the best animated films of the year, but it’s one of DreamWorks’ best and one that will strike a chord with moviegoers of all ages. It’s equal parts exciting and hilarious as well as earnest, it never feels like it is talking down to anyone.”

It’s a good analogy: Logan for kids, an unexpectedly thoughtful spin-off that’s better than much of the original series. And it doesn’t dumb things down for the kids in the audience. Sure, it meets them with “kid” situations they can relate to, but the ideas are “adult”.

After Puss realizes he is down to his last of his nine lives, the movie asks a lot of big questions. Puss has to deal with a crisis of self. He also has to fight his fear of death, which is a screen-realistic portrayal of crippling anxiety. There’s also a forced reflection on death, legacy, and what you want most out of life, particularly with limited time. He has to face his past mistakes and regrets. And, again, very little of this is simplified or dumbed down for the kiddos.

It’s not perfect. After the fast start, it takes some effort to get out of Act 1. While others praised it, I was distracted by the Spider-Verse animation style. It felt out of place in this franchise, particularly since it was only used for the action sequences. Jack Horner is generically evil and there are little vestigial bits like Ethical Bug that exist only for jokes. Unexpectedly, though, some simple-looking characters fuel the heart of the movie, specifically Perrito and Goldilocks and the Three Bears. The end is somewhat predictable, but there are enough surprises and a Pixar-level tug at the heartstrings to make it all work.

I don’t think I could name another franchise where the 6th movie is in the running for best in the series. That just doesn’t happen. It’s funny, it’s smart, it’s thoughtful – it’s just well done. The end even serves as a tease for Shrek 5, and I’m lowkey excited for it now.

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Yes, yes, I know “All Star” by Smash Mouth was overplayed, but this was a great character introduction:

Good morning.

• As Spring Training approaches, Mark Feinsand has eight teams who still have work to do.
• Yankees general manager Brian Cashman defended the Yankees relatively quiet winter and denied the team was just bringing back the 2025 team.
• R.J. Anderson looks at the market for free agent right-hander Zac Gallen, which is apparently down to three team. The Cubs are one of them.
• Gabe Lacques and Bob Nightengale hand out winter semester grades for each team.
• Dan Szymborski has the projected standings for every team according to the ZiPS system.
• There were a few deals done over the past two days. The Giants traded right-hander Kai-Wei Teng to the Astros for minor league catcher Jancel Villarroel and international pool money.
• The Rockies traded right-handed reliever Angel Chivilli to the Yankees for minor league infielder T.J. Rumfield.
• R.J. Anderson thinks the Yankees might have picked up a hidden gem in Chivilli. Or at least that they can fix him.
• The Rockies made another deal as they acquired infielder Edouard Julien and right-hander Pierson Ohl from the Twins for minor league right-hander Jace Kaminska and cash.
• Scott Merkin reports on how the White Sox signed Japanese infielder Munetaka Murakami.
• Thomas Harrington believes that infielder Bo Bichette can reach another level with the Mets.
• Travis Sawchik breaks down the level of payroll disparity in MLB, which he argues is greater than ever before.
• Jack Harris notes that the Dodgers are not apologizing for spending money.
• Jake Mintz breaks down the process of arbitration that the Tigers and Tarik Skubal are heading for. He also looks at the possible outcomes and how it has hampered the Tigers winter.
• Mike Axisa has ten players who are extension candidates before Spring Training. Nico Hoerner is one and he’s got a contract estimate for him.
• Kiley McDaniel ranks all 30 farm systems.
• Keith Law also ranks all 30 farm systems. (The Athletic sub. req.) Law likes the Cubs’ system a bit more than McDaniel, but McDaniel does point out that the Cubs system is down for the right reasons.
• Julian McWilliams profiles Paul Toboni, the 35-year-old new president of baseball operations for the Nationals.
• Michael Baumann looks at Rob Refsnyder and laments the decline of the platoon player.
• Will Leitch has one player from each division who is “must-watch.” I thought “It’s gotta be PCA in the NL Central, right?” because I forgot Pittsburgh is in the NL Central.
• Davy Andrews examines what went wrong for Dodgers reliever Tanner Scott last year and how he threw too many strikes. Or I guess you could say “fat strikes.”
• NBC is putting together their studio team for their broadcasts this year and have reportedly agreed to terms with Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto and Clayton Kershaw. It would be nice if those three could be an “Inside the NBA” for MLB. I think there’s some hope of that.
• Astros Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa will not play in the World Baseball Classic because they can’t get insurance on their contracts.
• Ken Rosenthal talks with WBC Team USA manager Mark DeRosa about how the US squad is looking. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Katie Woo repots that Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto will play for Samurai Japan in the WBC. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Meghan Ward has a preview of Team Kingdom of the Netherlands in the WBC. Go Orange!
• If you’re thinking about going to the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas City, the Royals will pay for your admission in the month of February.
• And finally, Tyler Kepner reports on Seattle’s long-time radio voice, Rick Rizzs, will retire after 41 years calling Mariners games. (The Athletic sub. req.) Kepner looks back at Rizzs’ career.

Meet the Mets

The Mets signed Austin Barnes to a minor league deal.

Here’s the Mets’ spring training broadcast schedule.

Richard Lovelady, who was recently designated for assignment by the Mets, was claimed off waivers by the Nationals.

The Mets rank fifth on Kiley McDaniel’s list of all thirty farm systems at ESPN, and he notes that they had the top system in baseball before trading Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat to the Brewers.

Keith Law isn’t nearly as high on the Mets’ system as he ranked it twelfth in his list at The Athletic.

Jonah Tong will not play for Canada in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

Around the National League East

Ronald Acuña Jr. will play for Venezuela in the WBC.

The Good Phight took an early shot at projecting the Phillies’ 2026 roster.

Two top-100 prospects highlight the Marlins’ list of non-roster invitees to major league spring training.

The Nationals announced their minor league coaching staffs.

Around Major League Baseball

Joey Votto and Clayton Kershaw are set to join NBC as the network returns to covering baseball this year.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

As our top prospects list for 2026 was set before the Mets’ trade for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers, Steve Sypa wrote up Brandon Sproat, who ranked fifth on that list.

This Date in Mets History

The late Davey Johnson, whose managerial stint with the Mets brought the team one of its two World Series titles, was born on this date in 1943.

As one of the 5,000 Rockies fans to hear from the new front office and coaching staff and lean into the new-look Rockies organization at Rockies Fest on Jan. 24, I was struck by three things:

1. A genuine feeling of optimism
2. Consistent messaging
3. The emergence of three new core values that feel like the new direction is real

First, a genuine feeling of optimism.

Coming off 119 losses, it almost seems impossible, but I was inspired by the new Rockies leaders. Everyone I heard from who came to Colorado from other organizations mentioned being excited about the challenge of finding a way to win in Colorado’s unique environment. They were also all focused on winning, which wasn’t always communicated so clearly from the previous front office.

“I was having a good time in the NFL and everything else, but the chance to be here in Denver, to be around this fan base that has supported this team — I mean, even during the last couple years — looked pretty amazing,” said president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta. “And then to be able to, hopefully, do what we want to do, which is build not just a good team out in the field, but a championship organization, that’ll be a championship contender, year in, year out, and do that here, I think it’d be incredibly special.”

Second, the consistency from the top down on the new vision for baseball in Colorado.

From DePodesta and GM Josh Byrnes and his assistants to the research and development department and players and coaches, everyone talked about winning and the excitement to explore new ideas on how to do it for pitchers and position players from Single-A to MLB.

Third, three core principles of that winning vision came up over and over again in various sessions: learning from failure, embracing curiosity and sticking with the process.

While all three values are closely linked, since there was so much discussion of the trio, I’ll focus on failure this week, and curiosity and sticking with the process next week.

I first heard failure come up when former Rockie turned announcer Ryan Spilborghs was moderating a panel with some of the new pitching coaches and members of the R&D department. Considering the Rockies have struggled to develop players in the past, despite calling themselves a draft-and-develop team, there was a consistent theme around helping players learn to learn from and bounce back from setbacks.

“We also like it when players fail. We, like, in general, we want, you want a pitcher to stink for a month and figure it out after that. You don’t want it always to be, like, you’re dominating, dominating, dominating ’cause you’re gonna get your teeth kicked when you get here [MLB],” Spilborghs said to kick off the discussion on failure. “So you have to have that background of, ‘Okay, when I fail, this is what I did to get out of it.’ … Failure is a huge, huge advocate for learning and to get better.”

New pitching coach Alon Leichman, who worked on pitching coach staffs for the Marlins, Reds and Mariners before coming to Colorado, also mentioned how beneficial it is to have Minor League teams in Double-A Hartford, which has an altitude of 30 feet, and Triple-A Albuquerque, which sits at 5,312 feet. His biggest reason why the change is helpful is more exposure to failure.

“It can be really helpful because it lets them have an opportunity to fail. You know, they go from Connecticut to now altitude, and it’s kind of like a test run for them of what it’s gonna be like over here,” Leichman said. “So, it’s a super important level setting. We’re hoping that they come, learn from their failures. Once they come here, it’s not the first time they are experiencing it.”

Understanding the new focus on growing from failure, especially since it’s such a part of the game of baseball, made it easy to understand why the new front office and coaching staff wanted to sign pitcher Michael Lorenzen. The RHP is an 11-year veteran with a 4.08 career ERA who has pitched for the Reds, Angels, Tigers, Phillies, Rangers and Royals. He represents the rare free agent pitcher who willingly signs a deal to pitch in Colorado.

Lorenzen credits his routine to his longevity, in addition to his love for problem-solving and ability to make and monitor adjustments. Considering the Rockies have recorded the worst team ERA in MLB every season since 2022, there is a big problem to be solved.

“One thing I do love is problem-solving and growing as a pitcher, and I have grown as a pitcher by failing,” Lorenzen said in a panel with other members of the Rockies pitching staff. “So I feel like that’s why I’ve been able to stick around for as long as I have, and Colorado just seems untapped in that area. So we’re gonna fail a little bit, but we have a good coaching staff that has been brought in and a new front office that has been brought in to hopefully make that learning curve a lot shorter than normal.”

Gabe Ribas, the new assistant pitching coach, was on the same page. Ribas has dealt with his fair share of helping develop prospects and coach MLB pitchers as he spent the last five years as the director of pitching for the Detroit Tigers and four years as a pitching coordinator with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

“A wise person once said to me, ‘You do not want them experiencing failure for the first time at the Major League level.’ That is a recipe for disaster,” Ribas said. “… So nobody should panic when they get their teeth kicked in in Fresno or Albuquerque or Harford or wherever. That’s all part of the learning curve.”

Ribas then looked out to the audience and talked about the lessons that failure can teach us all outside of the game of baseball.

“You know, I would do a poll in this room. How many people have walked away from something successful going, ‘Man, I learned so much.’ Right?” Ribas said. “It’s when you get beat up. It’s how you respond. That sparks learning and curiosity. And anything that’s worth having is hard. And they’re gonna experience that.”

Over the last few seasons, the Rockies have experienced more failure than success. Since 2021, their 504 losses are the most in MLB. Now, it’s time to learn from that failure, keep learning from that failure, fail and bounce back and do it all over again.

It takes resiliency and curiosity to make that process work, which we’ll dive into next week.

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Will Rockies lose 90 games or fewer in 2026? | Mailbag | Denver Post ($)

Patrick Saunders admits to being optimistic, but doesn’t believe the Rockies will improve as much as the headline hopes. He also shares his thoughts on Kris Bryant’s status, if he thinks Germán Márquez will return, who will lead the team in saves and more.

2026 MLB farm system rankings: Prospect insights, analysis | ESPN.com

The good news? The Rockies aren’t in last place.

The bad news? They are ranked No. 28, ahead of only Houston and San Diego.

Surveillance, captive-audience and wholesale pricing are in Colorado Democrats’ cost-of-living crosshairs | Colorado Sun/CPR News

New legislation in Colorado could include an element that could help make life at Coors Field a little more affordable for Rockies fans. The “captive-audience pricing” element of House Bill 1012 would lower food prices at places like stadiums, where food is usually outrageously expensive.

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The Yankees offseason hasn’t been as bad as the average fan believes: it has been worse. All kidding aside, things haven’t been explosive on the player acquisition front, but the Bombers have done plenty of work. They brought back Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Amed Rosario, Tim Hill, Ryan Yarbrough, and Paul Blackburn while also trading for Ryan Weathers and taking a few chances in the form of minor league deals.

After adding Weathers, their rotation depth for the first few weeks of the 2026 campaign looks as follows: Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Weathers, and Yarbrough.

That group has, in that order, an established ace, a ‘broken’ former Rookie of the Year, an exciting second-year young star, and three serviceable mid-to-backend options with upside, some with more upside than others. Keep in mind, things will improve dramatically when Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon rejoin the staff at some point in the first couple of months of the 2026 campaign, but until that happens, there are real depth concerns with the aforementioned group.

Given the inexperience of some of those pitchers (Schlittler, Warren) plus the injury-related concerns of others (Gil, Weathers), it’s clear that the Yankees could stand to add at least one more capable starter before the start of the season.

We are not talking about another ace (although that would be nice!). But Spring Training always brings injuries with it, and the Yanks are a couple of strains away from having to rush Elmer Rodríguez to the majors or use a mediocre Triple-A option for spot starts. Counting on Cole and Rodon to be aces immediately upon returning would also not be fair.

That’s where a pitcher like José Quintana comes in. The veteran left-hander is not a sexy name, but the Yanks don’t necessarily need one. They need reliability and pitching know-how, and Quintana offers both.

In 2025, Quintana was limited to 131.2 innings due to a left shoulder impingement and a calf strain, yet he was able to offer reliable production while on the mound. His 3.96 ERA was more than serviceable, and even though his 4.81 FIP told another story, the lefty was able to keep the Brewers in more games than they probably expected.

Quintana is 37 and, as a result, is not expected to command a hefty salary or a multi-year deal, which certainly appeals to a team like the Yankees. And his run-prevention skills are not exclusive to last season: his career ERA is a fine 3.76, and his mark over the last four campaigns is an even better 3.53 in 543.1 frames.

In fact, here are his ERA finishes since 2022:

2022: 2.93

2023: 3.57

2024: 3.75

2025: 3.96

That’s consistency right there. That’s a pitcher who repeatedly hits his spots when he is locked in and is not afraid to pitch when the lights shine the brightest.

Quintana is far from dominant, though. He pitches to contact, ranking in the seventh percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate last year. In fact, his Statcast profile is more blue than red:

Still, 543.1 innings is definitely proof that, when he’s healthy, the crafty lefty has gotten outs consistently in recent seasons, even if his underlying stuff is far from over-powering.

He relies heavily on his sinker, which he throws 44 percent of the time, and also on a mix of changeups, curveballs, four-seamers, and slurves as his secondary pitches. As long as Quintana’s sinker averages between 90 and 91 mph, he will probably be able to offer solid backend production for a contender, and so far, there haven’t been any signs of a relevant velocity drop. He has been around that range for the last three years.

Maybe the Yankees don’t want to spend anymore and are happy with their current group. Perhaps they bring in another arm via trade. But Quintana gives them a rather inexpensive option if they want to go that route, and while it wouldn’t be wise to expect a 3.50 ERA with a strikeout per inning, somewhere around a 3.80 ERA and a 4.20 mark with plenty of weak contact would be enough to meet expectations and provide cover while the Yankees wait for their injured starters to come around.

As my mind’s eye turns to Spring Training, hope stirs. What once seemed so far away is now just around the corner, even though it hasn’t moved one iota (for those keeping score at home, iota is the smallest letter in the Greek alphabet and is proxy for really, really small amount). My mind wanders to considering the possibilities for young Tink Hence, one of my personal favorites.  He reminds me a bit of Carlos Martinez, another personal favorite from years past, both in stature and in stuff. 

In the abbreviated 2020 draft, the Cardinals drafted a 2-way player out of a Pine Bluff, Arkansas HS by the name of Markevian “Tink” Hence with their Comp-B pick (end of 2^nd round).  Arkansas.  I wonder if he grew up a Cardinal fan?  Perhaps listening via KDPX – Pine Bluff? He was converted to full-time pitcher and quickly received a lot of prospect accolades normally reserved for 1^st rounder.  Since, he has been listed in various Top-100 publications anywhere between 47^th and 84^th.  Not too shabby.

This off-season, he has fallen out of the Top-100.  This isn’t a lack of stuff, it is more about his availability, as he has only accumulated 257 IP over 5 minor league seasons, averaging just over 50 IP per year.  One can look at this stat alone and wonder if he has a starter’s trait. 

Coming into the 2026 season, people are left to ponder several unknowns.

Is he a potential star?

Baseball American (BA) now ranks him with a 55 scouting grade (above average), so his star potential is seen as diminished, but not absent.  They rate him as high risk, which adjusts his scouting grade down to 40. Yuk.   Individually, his FB and SL are grade 50, command is graded 50 and his change is graded at 60 (excellent!).  Fangraphs is a little more bullish on his slider and change, giving the Change an FV of 70!    

BA ranks him 15^th in the Cardinal organization.  No longer a prospect darling, he is in that typical saddle of prospect fatigue that so often occurs when initial hype is excessive and success isn’t immediate.  

Beyond the scouting grades, it is hard to evaluate his stuff anymore.  His Statcast data dates back to 2022 (ancient history!), and I’m not sure he is that pitcher anymore.  Suffice to say, he would have had lots of red on his Statcast/Savant page.  Good K-rate, north of 25%, decent walk-rate, good at suppressing hard contact (80^th to 90^th percentile).  Since, he has pitched at High-A and AA, which do not support Statcast data collection.   We will get a new look at the pitcher he has become when he hits Memphis. 

Is he a starter or a reliever?

The IP totals in his minor league career suggest durability is lacking.  He has yet to cross 100 IP in a season and has not regularly exceeded 5 IP in his starts.  In the modern game, these aren’t significant concerns for young starters, but the time spent on the IL is. 

His pitch mix and command says starter.  His durability says reliever.   His career arc begins to lean that way (see next paragraph).  High leverage reliever is a sought after commodity in MLB, no?

Reports are the Cardinals are having that starter/reliever conversation internally.  Their focus seems to be to get him to the place where he can start and finish a season healthy, and work from there.  This seems sound.  

Is he running out of time? 

He is only 23 years old and projects to start this season at AAA, where he will be young for the league.  In that sense, it is way too early to give up on such a dynamic arm. 

That said, one of the challenges of drafting high school pitchers is the requirement that they be added to the 40-man roster after their 4^th professional season.  Hence was added last year.  This means they had to burn one of his 3 minor league option-years last year, in what turned out to be a lost year.  He has 2 such option-years left, and a second will undoubtedly get used when he is assigned to AAA around the middle of 2026 Spring Training.  That will leave 1 remaining option, ostensibly to be used in the 2027 season (if needed. One can hope!).

Even if he were to join the major league team in either 2026 or 2027, given his relatively low innings build up, it is easy to imagine that he would not be on the MLB roster for an entire season.  They will need to manage his innings and that is difficult to do at the major league level.  Those options will be needed, and that safety blanket will come off in 2028, when he will be out of options.  He will be merely 25 years old then and potentially the poster-boy for why teams shouldn’t draft HS pitchers. 

Even the most optimistic innings projections would be unlikely to project him as built up much over 100 IP by 2028.  So, in the race to build up his arm before he runs out of options, he appears to be running out of time.

Also, related to the time scale, is the fact that he is occupying a 40-man roster spot.  It’s one thing to give a 40-man spot to a prospect, but quite another to not have that spot producing at either level.  At some point, the Cardinals are going to face needing a roster spot for a different prospect and will have to choose between a high-upside/low availability option like Hence, or another prospect.  That decision will be a bit tougher this next off-season, when the 40-man is refined yet again, especially if there has been any slippage in his stuff as the injuries have accumulated.

What kind of innings build up can a pitcher like this accept?

The Cardinals have a pretty complicated database that captures baseline (chronic, steady-state) workloads for pitchers and also acute (recent) workloads.  They use this database to manage innings (and pitches) and protect pitcher health.  Tink’s prior workloads likely present a unique challenge in this regard, as his pattern is a bit unusual, particularly for a starter.  They are likely wondering …

What exactly is his baseline heading into 2026? 

The average of 50 IP?  That 21 IP from last year is artificially low, because he threw bullpens with some frequency, even though he didn’t get in games.  They count this and factor it in, although it is lower stress, so not that low.  

How about the 79 IP from the 2024 season?  The 96 IP from 2023?  Since they count more than innings, they really can’t put a single IP number on a target to shoot at.  Pitch stress, max effort throws, high pitch count innings and things like that factor into workload calcs.  But I’d bet they are looking at 80-100 IP as the high side of a target range this year.   I’d also bet they start him but use him as more an opener (2 or 3 IP) to begin the season and work from there.  While lower inning counts might be to his benefit, irregular usage is likely not his friend and he still needs to build experience, in addition to stamina. 

Given health, 20-25 appearances might be a nice target, with 20 starts averaging 4 IP each (lower at the start of the season, higher toward the end), with a handful of MLB opener/bulk inning appearances to nudge that number up.  Basically, once per week.  They might set up framework like that.  Within his MiLB starts, they would likely shorten them if stress pitches go up or if he has excessively long innings or if his velo drifts, as it can do.  They do this with a lot of young pitchers anyway, but probably a bit moreso with him.   

What does his future look like?

One could say 2026 is a big season for him, but really, any season is big for every prospect. 

Because of his relative lack of experience, he is very likely to start the 2026 in the minors, most likely at AAA, which is where he was targeted last year before injuries derailed that trip. 

Because of his 40-man spot and diminishing options, he is equally likely to see some time at the major league level.  Because of the difficult innings management challenge they will face with him this season, it would seem more likely that they might spot him into starter/opener situations that they can control the timing and duration such appearances (such as 27^th man for double headers, or a planned extra rest day for the rest of the rotation.  They could slot him in as an opener or a bulk innings guy and return him to Memphis immediately after using him, where they can manage his innings.  They could pretty much do this once a month throughout the season, without exceeding the limit of 5 minor league assignments in a single season.  More practically, I wouldn’t expect to see any of these appearances before June.  He will be one of nine (or so) pitchers at Memphis on the 40-man roster, and he wouldn’t seem to be first in line for promotion.    

Beyond that, health, durability and performance will dictate, as it does with all pitchers.  If he maintains health and given how starters are used in the modern game, it doesn’t appear that they need to make a permanent starter vs. reliever decision, but his path to the MLB will almost certainly start in the bullpen.

I will seek him out in Spring Camp at the end of February.  I hope to see him pitch, at least in live BP if not in a game.  

I used to be a “small Hall” guy—generally believing that the hallowed halls of Cooperstown should be reserved for “the best of the best of the best—sir!” Then I saw this in 2023…

Truth be told, I wouldn’t have checked the box next to Scott Rolen’s name on the HOF ballet. But seeing his emotional reaction to telling his parents he made it in softened my stance. While I still would probably be a small Hall voter in a strictly balloting sense if given a vote, I no longer complain too much about the results. Who am I to begrudge these moments of joy in a world where such things are hard to come by?

Funny enough, I wouldn’t have voted for any of the three 2026 National Baseball Hall of Fame inductees. But they’re in now, so let’s take a brief look at their key stats/accomplishments, career versus our Twins, and why I’d not have punched their ticket.

Jeff Kent

• Key #’s: 55.4 bWAR, 2,461 H, 377 HR, .290 BA, .855 OPS, 123 OPS+, 1x MVP, 4x Silver Slugger
• vs. MN: 11 G, 38 PA, 2 HR, .212 BA, .710 OPS
• Why not: Purely stats-wise, he’s a little sub-par across the board. Kinda one of those “a few supernova seasons and a bunch more okay ones” player. Poor with the leather, Kent was also a surly fella—once vehemently blaming a 2002 wrist injury on “slipping and falling while washing my truck” when really he was tooling around on his motorcycle and had an accident.

Andruw Jones

• Key #’s: 62.7 bWAR, 1,933 H, 434 HR, 152 SB, .254 BA, .823 OPS, 111 OPS+, 1x Silver Slugger, 10x Gold Glove
• vs MN: 25 G, 87 PA, 7 HR, .237 BA, .873 OPS
• Why not: Jones was really good at two things: CF defense and power. I’d argue not quite enough for enshrinement. I think he gets a lot of press for being 19 years old and playing in a World Series (1996), and for his age he truly was a phenom. But the rest of his career is a little iffy outside of glove & pop.

Carlos Beltran

• Key #’s: 70.0 bWAR, 2,725 H, 435 HR, 312 SB, .279 BA, .837 OPS, 119 OPS+, ROY, 2x Silver Slugger, 3x Gold Glove
• vs MN: 105 G, 472 PA, 21 HR, 16 SB, .290 BA, .879 OPS
• Why not: This one is tougher because Beltran’s career on the field probably is Hall-worthy (solid average, power, speed, & defense). Maybe not slam-dunk HOF, but better than a lot of folks already inside. Yet, I still can’t quite get over his role in the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. I know this gets complicated because of Carlos Correa, but I truly do hold Beltran more accountable in that debacle for being a veteran presence who was still largely masterminding/championing the cheating behind the scenes.

Again, congratulations to all these new members of the MLB HOF club! I visited Cooperstown back in 2001 (I saw Kirby’s plaque!) and would love to get back to upstate New York someday—perhaps tag-teaming it to see the Rod Serling Memorial statue in Binghamton.

The much anticipated 2026 World Baseball Classic will be starting in early March with teams finalizing their rosters as the tournament approaches. The Pirates’ centerfielder Oneil Cruz is the latest addition to the Dominican Republic team.

Cruz will be participating in his first ever WBC as he joins a loaded Dominican lineup. The Pirates’ centerfielder had hinted at the possibility of participating during Pirates’ Fest, but it was officially confirmed this week.

Since coming into the league Cruz has spent his winters working out back in his native Dominican Republic, and has close ties to several of the players on the team.

Here are your finalized pools and schedule for the 2026 #WorldBaseballClassic.

The Championship Game will be played March 17, 2026 at loanDepot Park in Miami.

Full ticketing information for the 2026 tournament is available at https://t.co/h4Fi0dLx07. pic.twitter.com/t8q8Nopf4k

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) April 9, 2025

“Three or four days after the season or when I got to the Dominican, I started working right away with Wilton Guerrero, Vladimir Guerrero Sr.’s brother, down in the Dominican,” Cruz said. “He helped me a lot with the outfield stuff and hitting stuff. Basically no break.”

During the annual Pirates’ Fest, Cruz acknowledged his shortcomings during the 2025 season, stating that he felt that he had no time to relax this offseason and had to get to work.

“The season that I had last year, it was not my best season,” Cruz said. “I just went home, no time to relax. I went right to work. Just to work on the stuff that I was having trouble with last year and work on my body again. No time to relax. Just focus on what I need to do to get better.”

Cruz is one of the most physically gifted players in MLB, but Pirates’ fans have been waiting for him to take the next step in his career and really come into his prime. Being on this stacked Dominican team could be a great opportunity for him to be around incredible talent and get some valued experience playing in a high stakes tournament.

Oneil Cruz will play in the 2026 World Baseball Classic! 🇩🇴

per @francysromeroFRpic.twitter.com/IRVvxptem4

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) January 27, 2026

The Dominican Republic last won the WBC in 2013 and with the roster they have this year are going to be hard to beat as they’re one of the best teams in international play. Players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Seranthony Domínguez are just a few of the top talent that will be apart of this Dominican roster.

Fellow Pirate Paul Skenes will be representing Team USA during the WBC as the Americans will be looking to win the title on home soil.

The Dominican Republic is full of fire power throughout their lineup and rotation, and Cruz should be a welcomed addition to an already stacked roster.