Category: Baseball

You tell me.

Few things are more fun than an unheralded draft pick forcing his way into the Cardinals’ plans. Any draft pick has the odds stacked against them, but players picked outside the top few rounds have a vanishingly small chance of putting together a major league career. This week I found myself pondering whether or not Jalin Flores, a relatively obscure prospect in Peoria, was in the early stages of breaking out and setting a trajectory for Busch Stadium. There isn’t too much to say about Flores in particular, although I will say a few words in a minute, but this inspired me to take a quick walk down memory lane.

The Cardinals organization has a rich history of identifying talent later in the draft. Albert Pujols, of course, is the best example of this over the last three decades.  While the Cardinals haven’t identified another inner-circle Hall of Famer in the late-rounds of the draft this century (duh), they have been adept at identifying future contributors, and a few core pieces even much later in the draft. Let’s take a look at the best Cardinals picks in the 10th round and later this century.

2000 to 2004 

The early 2000s drafts were not as bad as I remember, but were mostly carried by high-round draft picks Yadier Molina and Dan Haren. The draft at this time had 50 rounds and the Cardinals drafted and signed a total of 12 players in the 10th round or later that eventually made it to the majors. Of those 12 players, three provided positive career fWAR.

Tyler Johnson is not included in the above table as his career fWAR was negative, but he was taken in the 34th round of the 2000 draft. While he only threw 77 big league innings, he etched himself in Cardinals lore by holding opponents to 1 run across 7.1 innings during the 2006 playoffs. Johnson ran a 12/2 K/BB ratio and teamed up with Randy Flores to provide an improbable pair of lockdown lefties at the back of the Cardinals’ pen. 

Another player not listed above is Terry Evans. Evans was drafted in the 47th round in 2001 out of Middle Georgia State University. He bumped around the lower minors for a couple of years without doing anything too noteworthy. In 2006, he was having a bit of a breakout season in Double-A as he had popped seven home runs in his first 21 games. At the time I was just getting into avid prospect watching, so I was quite frustrated when the Cardinals traded Evans to Anaheim for a seemingly washed up pitcher with a 6.29 ERA. During the regular season, Dave Duncan did not have much luck resurrecting his career, but come playoff time, Jeff Weaver pulled out a sensational run to help the Cardinals to the title. 

Anthony Reyeswas drafted in the 15th round of the 2003 draft. He was actually considered a better prospect than Adam Wainwright when they both debuted in 2005. Reyes had a disappointing rookie season in 2006, putting up a 5.06 ERA across 17 starts. He is remembered for his epic eight-inning performance in game 1 of the World Series when he allowed two runs on only four hits while outdueling Tigers rookie phenom Justin Verlander. What I had forgotten was that this was only Reyes’ second start of the postseason. After a brutal seven-game NLCS with the Mets, the Cardinals were out of pitching and had to choose between Reyes and Jason Marquis to get the start. While Marquis had a horrible season and did not pitch in the playoffs, it was still a gutsy call for Tony La Russa and the staff to go with the rookie pitcher. 

The most significant career of the early 2000s group came from another future playoff hero, Jason Motte. Motte was drafted as a catcher in the 19th round of the 2003 draft, but unable to hit at a satisfactory level, he was converted to a pitcher in 2006. The rest is history as Motte blitzed through the minors on his way to a 2008 debut in St. Louis. Motte will forever be remembered for recording the final out of the 2011 World Series and running a 2.08 ERA across 21.2 playoff innings from 2009 to 2012. 

2005 to 2011

Jeff Luhnow was hired as Vice President of player development in 2003 and moved to the player procurement side in 2005. After a horrible draft in 2004 that yielded no significant major leaguers, the late 2000s were critical in establishing the deep pipeline of talent that allowed the Cardinals to contend in the post-Pujols era. While there were big wins like Colby Rasmus, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn at the top of the draft, the Cardinals started finding real impact across the board. The positive fWAR players in this era were:

The fun started in 2005 when the Cardinals selected Jaime Garcia in the 22nd round of the draft. Garcia would pitch ten seasons in the majors while accruing 14.5 career fWAR. While Garcia battled injuries for much of his career, he was a critical piece of the Cardinals’ rotation, when healthy. The Cardinals struck again in 2006 selecting Las Vegas prep outfielder Tommy Pham in the 16th round. Pham spent parts of nine seasons toiling in the minor leagues before debuting in 2014. He has posted over 18 career fWAR including a 5.8 fWAR season with the Cardinals in 2017. 

In 2007, the Cardinals had seven late-round picks that made major league debuts, but the most prominent was Tony Cruz who somehow hung around for four years while posting -2.5 in cumulative fWAR. 2008 was more fruitful as the Cardinals found Kevin Siegrist in the 41st round. Siegrist had a short but productive career posting a 3.04 ERA across 276 games. His best season came in 2015 when he pitched in 81 games as the Cardinals’ primary lefty reliever and posted 1.3 fWAR.

It turned out that 2009 was the year the Cardinals hit the jackpot three times with late-round picks selecting Matt Carpenter (31.5 fWAR) in the 13th round, Trevor Rosenthal (7.8 fWAR) in the 21st round, and Matt Adams (3.6 fWAR)  in the 23rd round. 

To cap off the run, in 2011, the Cardinals took Seth Maness in the 11th round. Maness provided a couple of excellent seasons as Mike Matheny’s designated groundball specialist, but was only able to hang on for parts of five seasons when his already low velocity started to slip. 

2012 to 2015

After the epic haul in 2009, the Cardinals had much more limited success in the later rounds. The period after Luhnow left the organization and before Randy Flores came onboard yielded only two positive fWAR players in the later rounds of the draft. 

The big win in this period of time was selecting Luke Voit in the 22nd round. While Voit hit 90 of his 95 career home runs for other teams, he did bring back Giovani Gallegos in a trade with the Yankees. While the Cardinals had some excellent picks at the tops of the 2014 and 2015 drafts, not a single player even made a major league debut that was drafted after the 10th round. 

2016 to present

The Randy Flores era has come with plenty of great draft picks but the late-round gems have still been relatively sparse with only five positive fWAR players since 2016. After the abbreviated five-round 2020 draft, the 2021 draft was shortened from 40 rounds down to 20. 

In 2018, the Cardinals selected Kyle Leahy in the 17th round and signed him with a tiny $75K bonus. Leahy has not accumulated much fWAR yet, but his development has been a huge win for the organization as he has provided multiple years of good relief work and could start racking up value much more quickly if he can stick in the rotation. Nathan Church might have the best chance of shooting up the fWAR leaderboards. Drafted as a polished, contact-oriented hitter, he has improved his bat speed and power output enough that he has played himself into a starting role, at least for now. 

Looking ahead, who could join the list? 

With Church carrying the torch for the 2022 draft, there are some very interesting prospects coming up behind him from the last three draft years. 

Jacob Odle is probably the best bet to make a push from the 2023 draft. Odle was drafted as a strong-armed junior college pick and is still just 22 years old. Odle missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He got his feet wet with 51.2 innings last year, but walked over six batters per nine. Back in Low-A to start the season, Odle has cut his walk rate from 17.9% to 12.2% and is striking out 28.9% of batters faced. While his numbers are solid, it is Odle’s stuff that has him on the prospect radar. His average four-seam velocity has increased from 94.2 to 97.2 MPH (topping out at 99.4 MPH). Odle has a solid pitch mix as he is throwing his four-seam, sinker, cutter and curveball all over 20% of the time while sprinkling in a changeup and slider here and there. 

Deniel Ortiz was drafted in the 16th round of the 2024 draft and has already progressed to Double-A as a 21-year-old. Unfortunately, he injured his wrist in his first game this year and has not seen additional action. Ortiz was ranked 21st in the Cardinals system by Baseball America coming into the year and will be looking to build on a sensational first season when he does return to the field. 

Jalin Flores, an 11th-rounder in 2025, is the only position player from the Cardinals class to be pushed to the High-A level. Flores has responded well by cutting his strikeout rate from 32.4% in Low-A to 20.6% this year. He has popped 3 home runs and is running an ISO just under .200 through his first 107 plate appearances. Flores is interesting because of his pedigree. He was a top-100 draft prospect coming out of high school. After a terrible freshman year at Texas, he rebounded as a draft-eligible sophomore putting up an OPS over 1.000 and bashing 18 home runs. After the strong season, he was again considered a top-100 draft prospect and again preferred the college route. A disappointing junior year allowed him to fall to the eleventh round where the Cardinals drafted him and gave him a slightly above slot $175K bonus. Flores is graded as a good defender and is still getting reps at shortstop as well as third base. 

So is Jalin Flores actually breaking out? It’s way too early to say. But 107 plate appearances of improved contact, plus the defensive versatility and the draft pedigree, are enough to keep watching. And if the Cardinals’ track record tells us anything, it’s that the guys worth watching aren’t always the ones you’d expect.

Probably not the question to be asking after two consecutive losses, but it’s fair. The Phillies are 17-21, yet still maintain decent enough playoff odds by FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. They have played better baseball of late, which has at least made them more watchable.

So, how are we feeling about their playoff chances? The division crown is probably over, though miracles can happen. The third wild card is probably the one they need to be shooting for, so how do you feel about that? Are they still a favorite to make it in your eyes?

Triple-A: Gwinnett Stripers (Braves) 9, Norfolk Tides 1 — Game 1 (7 inn.)

You wouldn’t know it by the final score, but this was a one-run game until the last inning, the seventh, when the Stripers erupted for seven runs to turn it into a blowout. Reliever Gerald Ogando got torched for five runs in just two-thirds of an inning, and infielder Willy Vasquez had to take the mound for the final out, though he gave up two runs of his own. Before that, the Wells brothers (not actually brothers) were Norfolk’s pitchers. Starter Levi Wells worked 4.2 decent innings and gave up one run, and Tyler Wells followed with 1.1 frames. Poor Tyler was saddled with the loss despite being the only Tides pitcher not to give up any earned runs. He allowed an unearned run on an error by third baseman José Barrero, which broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth.

Just like the Orioles, the Tides managed just four hits in this game. A Barrero solo homer in the fifth accounted for their only run and only extra-base hit. Norfolk didn’t have a single at-bat with runners in scoring position. Not going to win many games that way.

Box score

Norfolk Tides 3, Gwinnett Stripers 2 — Game 2 (8 inn.)

The normally seven-inning doubleheader game had to go to an extra frame before Norfolk walked it off in the bottom of the eighth. Sam Huff’s RBI single plated the free runner, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, to salvage the split of the twin bill. The Tides offense put up a better showing in the nightcap with nine hits, eight of them singles. Center fielder Jud Fabian was 1-for-3 with a walk from the leadoff spot and also threw out a runner at home.

At any given moment I can never remember whether Albert Suárez is in the minors or in the Orioles’ bullpen, but apparently the answer is the former, because he started this game for Norfolk. He gave up two runs in four innings. Andrew Magno, Ryan Long, and Enoli Paredes followed with four innings of scoreless relief. Long was particularly impressive, working 2.1 frames with no damage.

Box score

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox 5, Altoona Curve (Pirates) 1

The Baysox delivered a solid performance both at the plate and on the mound, but the latter was a little better. Four Chesapeake pitchers combined to hold Altoona to just one run, starting with Christian Heberholz (four innings, one run), then two scoreless frames apiece from Daniel Lloyd and Jeisson Cabrera. Left-hander Micah Ashman saved the best for last by striking out the side in a perfect ninth inning. The 23-year-old from last year’s Charlie Morton trade has a 2.00 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 18 innings this year.

The Baysox offense produced nine hits and five walks, and might’ve run up the score a little more if they hadn’t gone 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position and left 1o on base. Even still, they got the job done. Frederick Bencosme went 3-for-4 with two doubles, Thomas Sosa homered, Adam Retzbach drove in two, and a rehabbing Jackson Holliday walked three times. That helped make up for a rare off night for Chesapeake’s two best hitters, Ethan Anderson and Anderson De Los Santos, who were a combined 0-for-9 with six strikeouts.

Box score

High-A: Frederick Keys, 11, Jersey Shore BlueClaws (Phillies) 10 — 11 inn.

The Keys are the most exciting O’s affiliate right now, and boy, they did not disappoint with this barnburner of a game. After blowing a late three-run lead to send the game to extras, the Keys rallied back from a two-run deficit in the bottom of the 10th and then another two-run deficit in the bottom of the 11th, pulling off a walkoff victory on back-to-back homers by Maikol Hernández and Elis Cuevas. Frederick is now 18-12.

It was certainly a well-balanced offensive attack. Ten different Keys batters had at least one hit. Nine of them scored a run, and seven of them drove in a run. Let’s start at the top of the lineup, where leadoff man Ike Irish had a hit, a walk, and an RBI. A rehabbing Reed Trimble mashed a homer. Vance Honeycutt hit a two-run double. The #7 and #8 hitters, Colin Yeaman and Leandro Arias, each had two RBIs. Wehiwa Aloy did not start but came in off the bench and struck out in both at-bats.

The offense needed to be good, because it was not a banner day for the Frederick pitching staff — specifically, the bullpen. Starter Yeiber Cartaya did great, throwing five shutout innings with one hit and six strikeouts, but a bunch of relievers struggled. Brandon Downer lived up to his name by giving up three runs, and Jacob Cravey coughed up four runs in the 10th and 11th but was bailed out by the Keys’ bats.

Box score

Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 3, Salem RidgeYaks (Red Sox) 2

This was another well-pitched victory for an Orioles affiliate on this night. Right-hander Christian Rodriguez, a 2024 tenth-round draft pick making just his second professional start, delivered a quality outing with six innings of one-run ball. He gave up eight hits, but struck out five without walking anyone.

The Shorebirds did all their scoring in the top of the second. Junior Aybar drove in the first two runs with a double and Braylon Whitaker followed with an RBI single. Three of the Shorebirds’ five hits came in that inning. They were otherwise quiet at the plate, but not on the basepaths, where they stole six bases without being caught. Whitaker and Aybar had two steals apiece.

Box score

Saturday’s scheduled games:

• Norfolk: vs. Gwinnett, 6:35 PM. Starter: TBD
• Chesapeake: vs. Altoona, 6:35 PM. Starter: Evan Yates (1-1, 6.33)
• Frederick: vs. Jersey Shore, 6:00 PM. Starter: Kiefer Lord (0-0, 5.40)
• Delmarva: at Salem, 6:35 PM. Starter: Denton Biller (1-1, 5.66)

All year, the Cubs have gone by a “next man up” mantra. Thus, when Matthew Boyd went down with a knee injury this week, Ben Brown was tabbed to make the start in his place. It was Brown’s first start of the year, and his past results as a starter have been uneven.

Like just about everything else that’s happened with the Cubs this year, Brown did his “next man up” job exceptionally well. Expected to go no more than three innings, Brown instead no-hit the Rangers for four innings. Michael Busch added a bases-clearing double and Seiya Suzuki homered in a 7-1 win over the Rangers, the team’s 10th win in a row. That, combined with losses by the Braves and Yankees, leaves the Chicago Cubs waking up this morning with the best record in baseball. Also, the 2026 Cubs are in rare territory:

Per the Elias Sports Bureau, these Cubs are the fifth team in MLB history with multiple distinct winning streaks of at least 10 games before their 40th decision of a season. The 1955 Dodgers, 1941 Cardinals, 1889 St. Louis Browns and 1880 Chicago White Stockings (Cubs) also achieved the feat.

And per Elias, the Cubs are also just the sixth team with a gap of three or fewer games between a pair of winning streaks of at least 10 games. That rare feat was also pulled off by the 1906 Cubs (one game, twice), 1897 Orioles (one), 1880 White Stockings (two), 1978 Pirates (two), and 1955 Dodgers (three).

Further:

We are all witnessing history… and of the best possible kind.

Now, let’s look at how this one unfolded.

With one out in the top of the first, Michael Conforto bounced a ball into the seats at Globe Life Field for an automatic double. One out later, Ian Happ singled him in [VIDEO].

That’s where the game stayed until the fourth. In that inning, Happ led off with a walk and Seiya Suzuki smashed his seventh home run of the year [VIDEO].

That ball: Crushed! [VIDEO]

A note on Suzuki’s blast from BCB’s JohnW53:

Suzuki’s fourth-inning home run extended the Cubs’ streak to seven games with at least one homer, a season high. Going into Friday, 11 other teams had had a streak of at least seven games this season. The Yankees had homered in 14 straight games; the Mariners, in 12; and no other team in more than eight.

There were 89 streaks of at least seven games last year, including ones of seven and eight by the Cubs. Twenty-nine streaks were at least 10 games, with a high of 18 by the Giants. The Dodgers had two streaks of 14; the Royals, one.

Brown was just outstanding in his four innings of work. He threw an efficient 46 pitches (31 strikes) and allowed just one baserunner, a second-inning walk to Joc Pederson. He struck out three [VIDEO].

I’ve been critical of the effort to make Brown a starter in the past. But this year, he’s developed additional pitches and has been much more effective in a multi-inning relief role. With a slot in the rotation currently available with the injury to Boyd, perhaps Brown can fill that place. An excellent job done in this one by Brown, whose season ERA dropped to 1.82.

More on Brown’s evening from John:

Brown is just the third Cub to start a game and exit after four no-hit innings — but the second in as many years.

On Opening Day of last season, against the Dodgers at Tokyo, Shota Imanaga was lifted after walking four and striking two.

Matt Clement walked one and struck out three at Los Angeles vs. the Dodgers on May 5, 2002.

That was the first such start since Monk Dubiel walked none and struck out one at home vs. the Reds on May 29, 1949. Under the hazy scoring rules back then, Dubiel was awarded the win, since the Cubs were ahead, 1-0, when he departed. They won, 10-2, as Emil Kush finished up, working five innings and allowing two runs on six hits and three walks, with two strikeouts.

Ryan Rolison relieved Brown in the fifth and walked the first two batters he faced. One out later, an RBI single by Justin Foscue made the score 3-1. At that point Javier Assad relieved Rolison. Assad’s second pitch was a wild pitch, advancing the runners, but he retired the next two Rangers to end the inning.

In the sixth, Busch drew a one-out walk and stole second. The Rangers have a reputation as an easy team to run on, so the Cubs took advantage. That was just the sixth steal of Busch’s 372-game MLB career to date.

One out later, Pete Crow-Armstrong bounced a ball into the seats, scoring Busch [VIDEO].

The Cubs blew the game open in the seventh. Nico Hoerner reached on an error, Conforto walked and Alex Bregman singled, loading the bases with nobody out. The next two Cubs hit into force plays at the plate, but Busch cleared the bases with this double to make it 7-1 [VIDEO].

Assad completed 3.2 scoreless innings in relief of Rolison, then just-activated Ethan Roberts entered the game for the ninth. He issued a two-out walk but then got Andrew McCutchen to fly to center to end the game [VIDEO].

Good pitching, the usual solid defense and timely hitting made this win very satisfying, and so, at least for this one:

Here are postgame remarks from Busch [VIDEO].

As mentioned in the clip, Busch saw 37 pitches in this game (the Rangers threw 187 pitches overall). That’s more than seven pitches per plate appearance, a sign of a really good, patient hitter. After a very slow start, Busch is batting .300/.413/.489 (27-for-90) over his last 24 games with three home runs and 21 RBI.

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

So. The two 10-game winning streaks, sandwiched around a three-game losing streak, obviously make the Cubs 20-3 over that span. That’s three games better than anyone else in MLB over that time (Yankees and Rays, 17-6), and I’ve noted the other things the Cubs have done with the streaks this year, matching things that haven’t been done in decades or in some cases, in over a century. You are witnessing amazing history, something to remember forever.

The Cubs will go for 11 straight wins Saturday evening against the Rangers. Edward Cabrera will start for the Cubs and Jack Leiter goes for Texas. Game time is 6:05 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Shaking a slump: How Garrett Stubbs' vibe could help Alec Bohm ‘reset' originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

0-for-31. That was the hitless stretch buried inside Brandon Marsh’s poor start to last season.

He landed on the injured list in late April with a strained hamstring. It was supposed to be his year as the Phillies’ everyday center fielder.

Marsh went to Lehigh Valley to rehab and try to find himself again. Garrett Stubbs was there. And what followed was less about mechanics than most people would assume.

“Nothing that he doesn’t already know — which is that he’s a superstar player,” Stubbs said. “When you go through those lulls, it’s hard to remember that. You get on hot streaks and sometimes you feel like you’re never going to get out. And then when you go through the lows, the same thing happens in the opposite direction.”

Marsh will tell you the same thing. The swing was not the problem.

“Physically, I didn’t really change much,” Marsh said. “I liked where my swing was. I was swinging at bad pitches. It was more in my head than physically. Stubby helped me out tremendously, just with the mental side going into the game and approaching your day.”

Marsh finished his rehab assignment with consecutive multi-hit games and returned to the Phillies on May 3. Since then, he owns the highest batting average among National League hitters at .311, trailing only Tampa Bay’s Yandy Díaz for the best mark in baseball.

Stubbs watched it happen up close. He knows what it takes to turn that kind of stretch around, and he has made it part of his role to help teammates through it.

“Coming down to Triple-A, letting the shoulders down, relaxing and just remembering how good of a player he is, regardless of what result was currently happening — that was a huge part of it,” Stubbs said. “It’s not always a mechanical thing. Sometimes it is, but there’s a big mental side to the game.”

Now, Alec Bohm is the one trying to find his way through.

The Phillies gave Bohm a pair of “reset” days on Thursday and Friday. He enters Saturday hitting .159 through his first 126 at-bats — the second-lowest average by a Phillie through the club’s first 38 games since 1901, with a minimum of 120 plate appearances. His .433 OPS is the lowest by a Phillie through that same stretch.

The circumstances make it harder. Bohm is in his final arbitration season before free agency, and he is carrying off-field noise after filing a lawsuit against his parents, alleging financial mismanagement. The Phillies need the hitter they have seen before, though.

There is reason to believe he is still there. Last season, through his first 94 plate appearances, Bohm slashed .198/.223/.264 with no home runs. The rest of the way, he hit .308 with an .801 OPS and 11 home runs. His teammates have not forgotten that.

“He’s one of the best hitters ever to play the game. He knows he is. We all know he is,” Marsh said. “He’s going to come out of it and be better from it. It’s all going to be water under the bridge. He’s going to be fine.”

Stubbs knows the daily grind of a stretch like this from the inside. The attention makes it harder.

“You walk into this locker room and you see media members,” Stubbs said. “They look at you. They know what story’s going on. You’re not playing well. They know you’re not playing well. It’s just a snowball effect of pressure that consistently happens.”

The ways a clubhouse can help are not always formal. Stubbs, who goes by the “Chief Vibes Officer,” knows that better than most.

“It’s the moments in the locker room or on the bench — [Bohm and I] talk all the time,” Stubbs said. “It’s not always related to something serious. Sometimes it’s about going to play golf on the next off day. Blowing off some steam and hanging out with the boys, having a few beers and forgetting about whatever went on that day.

Through 162 games, you’ve got to have times like that where you take a deep breath and forget about the day-to-day.”

Interim manager Don Mattingly’s decision to give Bohm two days off came from the same place — not as a warning, but as a recognition that sometimes the hardest-working players need permission to step back.

“He’s been working so hard, hitting extra all the time,” Mattingly said Thursday. “I encouraged him to take a reset day from the standpoint of — grind, grind, grind, take a step back. And then we get back after it.”

The Phillies are not simply waiting for things to turn. Mattingly said Kevin Long, the hitting group, the front office and others have been working through video and biomechanics, comparing the current Bohm to the version of him that hits the ball to all fields and drives in runs.

“Nobody’s just looking away, saying, ‘He’s going to hit,'” Mattingly said. “You’re trying to figure out solutions. Most of the time, a guy catches a feel, gets a couple of knocks, and then he’s off to the races. He’s going to hit, and I’ll believe that till the day I’m not on this earth.”

Stubbs, who considers Bohm a close friend, was careful not to speak for him directly. But everything he said about what a struggling player needs applies to what is happening right now.

“Knowing that the other guys in the locker room understand how good of a player you are — that is, to me, the most important thing,” Stubbs said. “Everyone on the outside doesn’t always realize how difficult it is to play this game. They also don’t always realize that we’re human beings, and we have family matters, whether they’re public or not, that happen daily, weekly, monthly.”

A year ago, Marsh was the one who needed to find his way back. Stubbs helped him get there — not by overhauling anything, but by reminding a good player that he was still a good player.

Bohm got his reset. The belief in the room has not changed. And neither has the memory of what Marsh looked like before it all turned around.

That is the point Stubbs knows better than most. Sometimes it starts with remembering who the player already is.

The date is October 2, 1978. With the Yankees down two in the seventh and two runners on, a light-hitting shortstop steps to the plate at Fenway Park. After fouling a ball off his foot, he turns on one.

Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it, it’s a home run! A three-run home run for Bucky Dent and the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2. Bucky Dent has just hit his fifth home run of the year into the screen.

In a franchise whose history is chock full of indelible moments, this one ranks near the top. Dent’s soaring shot above the Green Monster keyed a Yankee victory in a one-game playoff against their most hated rivals, erasing what had been a 14-game division deficit and setting them on the path towards their 22nd title. Of course, Dent never would have been in position to make history if not for contributions up and down the Yankees’ roster all season long.

Here in 2026, Yankees’ starting pitchers are neck-and-neck with the Dodgers’ for the best rotation ERA in baseball. To be sure, we’re still in the early going, but with Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole set to reinforce this already exemplary group in the near term, we appear to have the makings of a special rotation. The last time the Yankees led MLB in rotation ERA? Nearly 50 years ago on that ‘78 squad. It was a top-heavy group, led by an all-world Ron Guidry. But the Yankees could neither have led baseball in rotation ERA nor mounted their historic regular-season comeback without the high floor provided by all the members of their pitching staff.

Let’s dissect the anatomy of a league-best rotation, starting with its ace. Guidry’s ‘78 season is the stuff of legend. After earning a starting role the year prior, going 16-7 with a 2.82 ERA, he transformed into the best pitcher in the game at the age of 27. He led baseball in wins (25), ERA (1.74), and shutouts (9). In particular, that ERA ranks third in club history behind a mid-World War II Spud Chandler season and a 1910 Deadball Era Russ Ford campaign aided by the emery ball. Gator also struck out 248 which slotted third behind Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard that year but remained a Yankees record until surpassed by Cole in 2022 — a much more high-strikeout era.*

*For one point of comparison, when K% is weighted to adjust for the circumstances of the league at the time, 1978 Gator scored a 198 K%+, whereas 2022 Cole had a 146. It’s no shade on Cole, just a testament to Guidry,

This is the year Louisiana Lightning set a Yankees record with 18 strikeouts in a game (“holy cow!”), began a Yankee Stadium tradition with the two-strike clap, captured the Cy Young, and finished runner-up to Boston’s Jim Rice in MVP voting.

Tomes have and will be written about Guidry’s historic campaign (here’s a great piece by Mark Feinsand if you want a deeper dive). And while, of course, the lanky lefty’s utter dominance is the primary reason Yankees starters led the game in ERA, I’m going to focus more on the less-heralded supporting cast who made sure one of the greatest pitching seasons in baseball history was not for naught.

1975 was Bobby Bonds’ first season in pinstripes after coming over in a surprising trade for fan favorite Bobby Murcer. Despite going 30/30, it would also be Bobby’s last. Before the ’76 season, the Yankees made a controversial deal, shipping the established star off to the Angels for two promising youngsters who would become pillars of their late-’70s run: center fielder Mickey Rivers (an excellent player in his own right) and starter Ed Figueroa. Figueroa was a steady contributor throughout his time in New York who posted his best season in ‘78. The right-hander from Puerto Rico won 20 games while pitching to a 2.99 ERA, finishing seventh in Cy Young voting. And, in a season that saw injuries to some key starters, Figueroa joined Guidry as the only Yankee to stick in the rotation all season.

In what will become a trend, the 29-year-old performed much better in the second half than the first. He went 13-3 with a 2.46 ERA after the All-Star break. This included a season-saving performance in game 161. With the Yankees clinging to a one-game lead over the red-hot Red Sox, Figueroa twirled a complete-game shutout against Cleveland to help the Yankees keep pace, winning his 20th game in the process.

The mid-season boost may have come at least in part due to a change at manager. “(Billy Martin) treated me like dirt, a second-class citizen,” Figueroa recounted about his contentious relationship with the divisive Yankees skipper. “He has told people I’m gutless and cannot pitch under pressure. He never said anything good about me.” Conversely, he felt that Martin’s replacement, the mellow Bob Lemon, “treats me like a man. He lets me pitch to the hitters my way. I have more confidence with him.”

Behind the two stars at the front of their rotation, the man with the most starts in ‘78 was Dick Tidrow. A swingman who started just nine games the prior three seasons combined, injuries forced the 31-year-old into the rotation for nearly the whole year (he ended up starting 25 games). Despite going 7-10 in those starts, he pitched to a solid 3.83 ERA, keeping the train on the tracks as New York worked through quite a bit of turmoil. While Tidrow would pitch for six more seasons, he’d start just one more game, making the ‘78 season an unexpected but pivotal last hurrah for him as a starter.

Next up was a rookie named Jim Beattie, who ended up starting 22 games. Drafted in the fourth round in 1975 out of Dartmouth, the 6-foot-5 right-hander quickly ascended through the minor-league system, earning a spot in the starting rotation to begin the ‘78 season. And, while he was the weakest cog in the Yankees’ rotation for much the year, he was a more than capable number-five starter, posting a 3.73 ERA and 98 ERA+. Beattie’s shining moment came during the famed “Boston Massacre,” a four-game sweep from September 7-10 in which the Yankees outscored the Red Sox 42-9 and pulled even in the standings. Beattie started the second game of the set and, with two outs in the eighth, was on track for his first complete game and his first shutout. That’s when an error by backup catcher Mike Heath, who’d come on to replace Thurman Munson in the rout, led to two unearned runs and chased Beattie before he could finish the job. Beattie would go on to greater success with the Mariners before moving to the front office, serving as a GM with both the Expos and Orioles as well as a longtime scout with the Blue Jays.

The most ill-fated member of the ‘78 Yankees’ rotation was Don Gullett. A former first-rounder who’d burst on the scene with Cincinnati in 1970 at the age of 19, Pete Rose once said the fireballer was “the only guy who can throw a baseball through a car wash and not get the ball wet.” By the fall of 1976, he was a two-time champion and a seasoned veteran, signing with the Yankees on one of the first notable free agent contracts and posting an impressive 14-4 record. But his shoulder was starting to give out. He’d make just eight starts in ‘78 before undergoing shoulder surgery that would end his career at the age of 27. Years later, he continued to rue the premature end of his once-promising career:

“I’ll always wonder what I might have done with seven or eight more years. It’s the goal of every player to get into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. I’m not saying I would have or could have made it. But we’ll never know.”

Still, in those eight starts, Gullett went 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA. In a regular season that ended in a tie, it’s certainly possible that his efforts to persevere for as long as he did through his shoulder problems made the difference in getting to game 163.

Seven others started games for the Yankees in ‘78. Six of them appeared in six or fewer games and factored minimally into the rotation’s ERA crown. The seventh ended up in the Hall of Fame.

By 1978, Catfish Hunter was no longer the ace who’d finished top-four in Cy Young voting four years in a row. Diagnosed with diabetes that spring, he was also plagued by arm problems and developed a groin surgery along the way. His nadir came on July 27th, when he allowed six runs without getting an out against Cleveland. “I was doubtful at mid-season if I’d ever pitch again,” he conceded later in the year.

Amidst this crisis of confidence, the Yankees’ team physician performed some manipulations to break up adhesions that had formed in the eight-time All-Star’s shoulder. He was a man reborn. Catfish allowed no runs in 17 innings across his first two starts in August and, in 11 August and September starts, went 9-1 with a 1.71 ERA. “When he had to have it, he had great stuff,” said Lemon, a Hall of Fame pitcher himself, admiringly of Hunter’s resurgence. “He was in command and was getting the pitches where he wanted them. That was a pitcher out there.”

With the chance to clinch the AL East in game 162, Lemon handed the ball to Hunter. He reverted to his earlier form, allowing five runs in 1.2 innings en route to a trouncing that set up the one-game playoff. In that game, while not as unhittable as he’d been for most of the season, Guidry kept his team in the game with 6.1 innings of two-run ball.

After Dent keyed the victory that day, the rotation was up-and down in the playoffs. Figueroa allowed eight runs without making it out of the second in either of his first two starts, doing little to refute Martin’s cruel barb that the pitcher could not perform under pressure. Tidrow was bounced to the bullpen, allowing one run in 4.2 World Series innings. Beattie acquitted himself nicely in two starts, including a pivotal two-run outing in Game 5 of the World Series that staked New York to a 3-2 series lead and netted him his first career complete game.

Guidry was in typical form, allowing just one run in each of his two outings. And Hunter gutted out three starts, culminating in nailing down the World Series clincher in his 22nd and final playoff appearance.

While you can never anticipate the kind of season that Guidry put up in ‘78, the Yankees have the type of front-of-the-rotation talent in Cole, Rodón, Max Fried, and Cam Schlittler to go toe-to-toe with any rotation in the league. As we’ve already seen, though, as injuries take their inevitable toll, a rotation’s success also hinges on its depth. The likes of Will Warren and Ryan Weathers have significantly raised the floor that can be expected from Yankees’ starters. It’s a potent formula for regular-season dominance that mirrors one of the greatest staffs in franchise history.

PHOENIX — On a team littered with superstars, fat bank accounts and glossy resumes, there is first baseman Mark Vientos.

The New York Mets, with a payroll of $352 million, are led by Juan Soto’s MLB-high $61.9 million salary this year.

They have seven All-Stars.

And, here they are, heavily relying on their 20^th-highest-paid player, earning only $33,750 more than the MLB minimum, to help lead them through these troubled times.

Vientos, the cleanup hitter out of necessity, almost singlehandedly won the game for the Mets on Friday night, a 3-1, 10-inning victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.

It was Vientos’ leadoff homer in the second inning homer that not only produced the Mets’ lone run through the first nine innings – but half of their two hits.

And it was Vientos who hit the go-ahead, run-scoring double in the 10^th inning for the game-winner, giving the Mets their fifth victory in seven games on this three-city, West Coast road trip.

“The cleanup spot, I love it," Vientos said. “It feels pretty good. I feel like I’ve been doing it for a while now.’’

The Mets, of course, still are in a world of hurt, thanks to a brutal 3-17 stretch that has them with a 15-23 record.

But, perhaps, they still have a pulse.

If they’re miraculously going to get back in the race, they badly need the 2024 version of Vientos, who hit 27 homers with 71 RBIs and an .837 OPS. He struggled last season, hitting .233 with 17 homers and 61 RBIs with a .702 OPS, and looked even worse this spring and in the WBC, playing for Nicaragua.

He came out of the gate hot  hitting .476 in the first seven games of the season but when the Mets went into a tailspin after the 11^th game of the season, Vientos went down too, hitting just .160.

Now, after hitting two, two-run homers on their trip against the Angels, and hitting the ball hard but little luck in Colorado, Vientos came to the rescue in the desert.

While the Mets’ top of the order with Soto, Bo Bichette and Brett Baty went 0-for-12 without drawing a walk, and the entire lineup producing just two hits and one walk in nine innings, Vientos stood tall.

And, suddenly, that confidence is surging.

“I feel good right now for sure." Vientos said. "I’ve just got to be stacking the days, and continue to be consistent."

Ian Cundall at Baseball America recently watched Dodgers prospect Emil Morales with Ontario as well as San Francisco Giants prospect Jhonny Level, then compared and contrasted the two 19-year-old California League shortstops ranked in the top 100.

“Morales has the makings of a power-over-hit player and is likely a corner infielder. There’s considerable variance in his profile but also a very high ceiling if he can make enough contact to tap into his raw power,” Cundall wrote. “That’s why he’s ranked slightly higher at this point. He’s the type of player you can envision developing into a bat-first impact regular if everything breaks right.”

In Baseball America’s updated top-100 prospect rankings unveiled on Wednesday, Morales was ranked 67th, after not making the top 120 in January.

Morales spoke with Tower Buzzers broadcaster Jeff Woolson on Friday:

With Mookie Betts, Kiké Hernández, and Brusdar Graterol rehabbing with Oklahoma City, and Blake Snell having just completed his rehab assignment before rejoining the Dodgers today, this next story feels especially relevant.

Old friend Josh Suchon, a longtime host of Dodger Talk who is in his 14th season calling games for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes, dug into the history of minor league rehab assignments, and found that St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Silvio Martínez was very first player to appear in a minor league game on a rehab assignment, 46 years ago.

From Suchon at Baseball America:

On May 23, 1980 … a new four-year agreement was reached between the MLB Players Association and the 26 clubs.

The two sides agreed to set aside the issue of free agent compensation for further study and negotiation. Ultimately, the two sides could not reach an agreement, which led to the two-month strike in 1981. Buried in the new agreement was a provision known as the “medical rehabilitation program.”

The city of Torrance is trying out a new shuttle service two and from Dodger Stadium, beginning this weekend, with trips costing $2 each way: “The pilot service will operate on Sunday, May 10; Sunday, May 31; Sunday, June 7; and Sunday July 5, 2026, offering direct service to and from the stadium.”

Nathalie Alonso wrote a children’s book about Fernando Valenzuela called ¡Viva Valenzuela!, which focuses on Fernandomania and his bursting onto the scene with the Dodgers in 1981. Illustrator John Parra shared some details on his process illustrating a portion of the book.

Today’s Reflections

Here we are, on May 9th, and the Chicago Cubs have been christened by the media as the most stunning, powerful, dominant team in baseball!!! If they were talking to the Mets’ fanbase, or those from St. Louis, Atlanta, Texas, Tampa, etc., those fans would be on TOP OF THE WORLD!!1!!

But. Let’s be real. We’re Cub fans. WE know what’s going on. The media can paint all the pretty pictures it wants — WE know that while we have a fun (for now), aggressive (for now) mix of hitters and defenders that (can) dominate games, that can change in a flash. We see the small holes for now, like Dansby Swanson’s hitting, the occasional flub ups in LF that still makes Ian Happ most likely the best off-season free-agent outfielder, the goofy flub ups in RF by Seiya Suzuki who’s bat makes us forget all that (unless it’s in crucial situations), the unknown whether PCA is going to be half of the player we saw in the first half last year, the mistakes that Nico Hoerner …… AAAAAH, I can’t do it — he’s a modern-day god.

It’s mostly the pitching staff that’s not only held together by band aids and rubber bands — it’s more like titanium and cement. And I’m pretty sure it’s tough pitching with all that material on you. I just want to say two particular things — 1) I recently wrote that Shota and Colin Rea need to be so careful that they need someone to brush their teeth for them. I want the Cubs to do the same for Ethan Roberts (and everyone else, and, Ethan, don’t catch metal falling from the ceiling. 2) And I want them to go a little further with Ben Brown, the Cubs most consistent (best?) reliever that getting thrown to the wolves again as a starter. 1) Ben, don’t change anything that you’ve been doing. If that means you only go once through the order, fine. And 2) Cubs, wrap Ben in bubble wrap anyway. Just to be safe.

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

• Steve Drumwright (North Side Baseball): Cubs Activate Ethan Roberts Off Injured List. “The right-hander missed more than two weeks while recovering from a finger laceration. Right-hander Gavin Hollowell shipped back to Iowa.”
• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): ‘This Week in Baseball’ is Loving on the Chicago Cubs. “It makes me happy to see that MLB has brought back a version of the program itself, and makes me even happier to see the Chicago Cubs featured so prominently this week.”

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune): 3 numbers that stand out in the Chicago Cubs’ 9-game winning streak: ‘It’s pretty special’. “yes, all things considered, you look at where our record is and how we’ve gotten there, I think we’ve played well,” Jed Hoyer said “But we have five more months to go and we’ve got to keep doing it.”
• Carson Wolf (Just Baseball): Ian Happ’s Endless Consistency Is Going To Get Him Paid. “Happ is setting himself up to be one of the top free agents on next winter’s market. Will the Cubs pay up to keep him in Chicago?”
• Tyler O’Shea (Joker Mag): Riley Martin’s Road to the Big Leagues Began as a D2 Non-Prospect Already Enrolled in Pharmacy School ““I was thinking, I’m probably not gonna get drafted. This is probably my last season of baseball…I was like, ‘This is my last chance at it.’”“
• Steve Greenspan (MLB.com): Deep, balanced lineup a winning formula for Cubs. “Do the Cubs have the best lineup in baseball?”
• Ron Luce (SportsNetOnTap): Ben Brown’s Confidence Leads to New Chapter in 2026 as Starting Pitcher. “Ben Brown starts a new chapter in the 2026 season, getting the start in Texas as he builds back up into a starter for the Chicago Cubs.”

• Gordon Edes (Chicago Sun-Times): Shota Imanaga, Cubs beat Reds 8-3 for 15th consecutive home victory. “This is what happens when the Cubs are off to their best start at Wrigley Field since 1923, nine years after its doors first opened for an outlaw team in an outlaw league that shortly went out of business.”
• Mike McGraw (Daily Herald): Too soon? Cubs join elite company as home win streak hits 15. “Are the Cubs peaking too soon?”
• Mike Wadleigh (Larry Brown Sports): Cubs accomplish rare feat not seen since 1955 Dodgers. “The Cubs now have two nine-game win streaks this season, making them the first team since the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers to have multiple nine-game win streaks in the first 38 games.”
• Jake Misener (Cubbies Crib): Cubs strike trade with Athletics to address ailing pitching staff. “The team’s surprise acquisition of right-hander Tyler Ferguson from the Athletics Thursday afternoon gives a much better idea of the type of moves we can expect to see.”
• Mike Axisa (CBS Sports): Reds’ Tyler Stephenson’s mental error vs. Cubs is latest example of lack of fundamentals across baseball. “ Five years after Javier Báez broke the Pirates’ brains running to first base, Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson forgot to tag the Cubs’ runner coming home Thursday. He thought it was a force play. Nope. Stephenson had to apply the tag but just didn’t do it.“
• Jackson Stone (MLB.com): Cubs haven’t had a Wrigley winning streak like this one in 91 years. “The North Siders cruised to an 8-3 win over the Reds at Wrigley Field …..to mark Chicago’s 15th consecutive win at home.”
• Gordon Edes (Chicago Sun-Times): Cubs pitcher Ben Brown will start Friday’s game against Rangers. “Craig Counsell said he has made a point of giving Brown multiple innings. He went 3 innings in each of his first two appearances this season”
• Jared Bloom (Sporting News): Cubs’ Shota Imanaga finds his rookie form and a spot in the pitching power rankings “After a second-half swoon in ’25 and some offseason drama, Imanaga has carried the Cubs’ staff with a 2.40 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning through seven outings.”
• Aldo Soto (Sports Mockery): “Booth is Literally Shaking” Pete Crow-Armstrong Stuns Cincinnati Reds’ Announcer. “Before Michael Busch walked to load the bases, PCA had Wrigley rocking (Video, Reds announcers):

• Ron Luce (SportsNetOnTap): Cubs Recall Gavin Hollowell, DFA Corbin Martin. “The Chicago Cubs designated Corbin Martin for assignment after a pair of rough outings and called up RHP Gavin Hollowell.“
• Evan Shuster (Chicago Cubs on SI): Cubs Share That Matthew Boyd’s Return Timeline is Better Than Expected.“Matthew Boyd has seemingly dodged a more severe meniscus injury, according to Cubs GM Carter Hawkins.”

Food For Thought:

JT Coldfire (James Thomas Uvalle, 1980–2015) was a highly regarded Texas blues-rock guitarist, singer, and songwriter known as a staple of the Austin music scene. Renowned for his raw, energetic “Texas roadhouse” style and prolific live performances, he released albums including Crazy Sun and Always & Never before his untimely passing.

He was a self-taught guitarist who started his career at age 11, playing professionally for over 15 years. His music was a blend of jump blues, Texas blues, and outlaw country, often compared to Stevie Ray Vaughan and Freddie King but with a unique, gritty vocal style. Often cited as one of the hardest-working musicians in Austin, he was known for long, intense live sets. He traveled extensively, playing from Texas to Europe.

Athlete pulls 21,737-pound bus with his neck —  A 49-year-old athlete from Aruba earned his 10th Guinness World Records title by pulling a bus a distance of more than 65 feet using his neck. Egmond Molina used a rope around his neck to pull the 21,737-pound bus on Jan. 9, and Guinness World Records has now confirmed he officially broke the record for the heaviest vehicle pulled by the neck.

“With the rope compressing my airway, I must generate force while carefully controlling my breathing under intense strain. It becomes a psychological battle to remain composed while the body is under severe stress,” Molina told Guinness World Records. The strongman’s previous Guinness World Records titles include the fastest 20-meter bus pull with one finger, 33.32 seconds; the fastest 20-meter tram pull with teeth, 39.9 seconds; the fastest hot water bottle burst, 2.87 seconds; and the most crown cap bottles opened with both hands in 30 seconds, 6 bottles. (VIDEO)

“We live on such an incredible planet! Enjoy this travel guide featuring the most incredible places of our world. From the wildlife of Africa, to the enchanting landscapes of Europe, there’s something worth seeing in every corner of our world. This video is my favorite to date and is took many years of traveling and months of editing to make! I can’t wait to share it with you.

Top 100 Places To Visit in The World – Ultimate Travel Guide (VIDEO)

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

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Saturday’s MLB picks card is loaded with strong pitching matchups, heavy favorites, and a few live underdogs worth backing.

From the Blue Jays and Cubs in favorable spots to the Braves battling the Dodgers late night, these are the MLB moneyline picks standing out most based on current form, pitching edges, and overall team metrics.

MLB moneyline picks for May 9

Matchup	Pick
Angels vs Blue Jays	-186
A's vs Orioles	-122
Astros vs Reds	-156
Rays vs Red Sox	+108
Nationals vs Marlins	+127
Rockies vs Phillies	-170
Twins vs Guardians	-117
Cubs vs Rangers	-133
Tigers vs Royals	+104
Mariners vs White Sox	-117
Yankees vs Brewers	-163
Mets vs Diamondbacks	-127
Cardinals vs Padres	-138
Pirates vs Giants	+100
Braves vs Dodgers	+108

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 5-9.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for May 9

Angels vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (-186)

Blue Jays win probability: 65%

Toronto still gets the edge behind Tomoyuki Sugano, who’s been excellent early with a sub-1.00 ERA. The Blue Jays also hold the cleaner overall pitching profile, while the Angels remain vulnerable once traffic starts building on the bases. LA has enough power to stay dangerous, but Toronto looks like the steadier team over nine innings.

A's vs Orioles: Orioles (-122)

Orioles win probability: 55%

This is still an ugly matchup because neither side inspires much confidence on the mound, but Baltimore gets the nod at home. Aaron Civale has pitched well statistically, though the Orioles lineup is capable of creating pressure quickly against contact-heavy arms. Slight edge to Baltimore’s offense and late-game upside.

Astros vs Reds: Reds (-156)

Reds win probability: 61%

Hunter Greene versus Spencer Arrighetti is a much tighter pitching matchup than before, but Cincinnati still has value at home. Greene’s swing-and-miss stuff gives the Reds a real ceiling advantage, and Cincinnati’s bullpen has quietly stabilized lately as well. Houston is dangerous offensively, but the Reds still feel live behind the better strikeout arm.

Rays vs Red Sox: Rays (+108)

Rays win probability: 48%

The Rays remain the cleaner overall team entering this matchup. Better pitching depth, stronger run prevention metrics, and a lineup that consistently pressures defenses with speed. Boston’s offense has been too inconsistent to fully trust right now, especially against deeper staffs.

Nationals vs Marlins: Nationals (+127)

Nationals win probability: 44%

This pitching matchup flipped dramatically, but Washington still has a path because Miami’s offense remains limited overall. Zack Littell’s numbers are ugly, though the Nationals continue to own the stronger power profile and should generate enough offense against a Marlins lineup that struggles to sustain rallies consistently.

Rockies vs Phillies: Phillies (-170)

Phillies win probability: 63%

Aaron Nola’s ERA looks rough, but this still profiles as a bounce-back opportunity against Colorado away from Coors Field. The Phillies lineup is too experienced to stay cold forever, and Kyle Freeland continues to allow plenty of contact and baserunners. Philadelphia remains the more battle-tested offense in this spot.

Twins vs Guardians: Guardians (-117)

Guardians win probability: 54%

This becomes much riskier with Tanner Bibee struggling early, but Cleveland still has the stronger overall run-prevention profile at home. Joe Ryan has been solid, though the Guardians' bullpen remains one of the steadier late-game units in this matchup. Tight game that leans Cleveland in the later innings.

Cubs vs Rangers: Cubs (-133)

Cubs win probability: 57%

Chicago continues to profile as one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking near the top of the league in OPS, OBP, slugging, and runs scored. Edward Cabrera has also been solid lately, while Jack Leiter’s 5.45 ERA and command issues continue to create problems. Big edge to the Cubs offensively.

Tigers vs Royals: Tigers (+104)

Tigers win probability: 49%

This still feels close to a coin flip, but Detroit’s overall pitching profile gives them the slight edge. The Tigers have been steadier in both ERA and WHIP all season, and their bullpen depth remains more trustworthy late. Low-scoring game where one clean inning probably decides it.

Mariners vs White Sox: Mariners (-117)

Mariners win probability: 54%

Luis Castillo’s ERA looks ugly, but Seattle still owns the stronger overall pitching infrastructure entering this matchup. Chicago’s offense has improved statistically, though the White Sox remain vulnerable once games turn into bullpen battles. Seattle’s overall staff depth still separates these teams.

Yankees vs Brewers: Yankees (-163)

Yankees win probability: 62%

Milwaukee’s starter has been excellent, but the Yankees continue to hold massive offensive edges nearly everywhere statistically. New York ranks near the top of baseball in runs, OPS, slugging, and homers, and even against strong pitching, they’re capable of breaking games open quickly. Hard to fade this offense right now.

Mets vs Diamondbacks: Mets (-127)

Mets win probability: 56%

The Mets' offense has been inconsistent, but Clay Holmes versus Merrill Kelly is a sizable statistical pitching mismatch. Holmes has been dominant early with a sub-2.00 ERA, while Kelly’s 9.95 ERA speaks for itself. Arizona can absolutely score, though this matchup heavily favors New York on the mound.

Cardinals vs Padres: Padres (-138)

Padres win probability: 58%

San Diego still gets the edge at home behind the cleaner overall pitching profile. Randy Vasquez has quietly stabilized things lately, while Steven Matz continues to struggle with consistency. The Padres' bullpen and overall run prevention remain stronger entering this matchup.

Pirates vs Giants: Pirates (-100)

Pirates win probability: 50%

This is tougher now because Landen Roupp has pitched well for San Francisco, but the Giants' offense still ranks near the bottom of baseball in nearly every major category. Pittsburgh has simply been the more complete offensive team overall and should create enough chances to stay live here.

Braves vs Dodgers: Braves (+108)

Braves win probability: 48%

Even with Spencer Strider still rounding back into form, Atlanta remains the side because of the overall offensive ceiling and the matchup against Roki Sasaki. The Braves rank near the top of baseball in runs, OPS, and slugging, while Sasaki’s command issues have created major problems early this season. Atlanta still profiles as the more complete side tonight.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning, baseball fans!

We are in the middle of a new feature for May that I’m calling the “12 Days of Mays-mas” because I won’t be around for this week, and I want to leave you guys with some fun things to watch while I’m gone.

For the ninth day of Mays-mas, I thought we’d continue with our Tim Lincecum love-fest, and take a look at Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS, arguably Lincecum’s best playoff start. He pitched a complete game with 14 strikeouts and showed the rest of the baseball world exactly why he was San Francisco’s beloved superstar.

So grab your coffee, settle in, and enjoy!

What time do the Giants play today?

The San Francisco Giants continue this three-game home series against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at 6:05 p.m. PT.

Good morning Birdland,

The Orioles offense is a three-man operation at the moment: Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman, and Samuel Basallo. All three of them contributed on Friday night, going a combined 4-for-9 with two home runs, three runs scored, and three RBI. That’s with Basallo beginning the day on the bench in order to catch today’s late afternoon game. The rest of the lineup went 0-for-22 with eight strikeouts.

It’s a widespread problem. Gunnar Henderson is in a deep cold spell. His season OPS is down to .674. Coby Mayo only got two at-bats before he was yanked on Friday. Colton Cowser is basically just a fourth outfielder at this point, kept around for his glove and speed. They don’t trust his bat at all. Tyler O’Neill isn’t having the bounce back they hoped for. Taylor Ward’s doubles are drying up, and that’s not because they are turning into home runs.

It’s a shame because Kyle Bradish put forth a pretty good start. He went deep, tossing seven innings, and the stuff looked good, striking out 10 in the process. The only runs he allowed all came in the fifth inning, and otherwise he shutout the Athletics offense down. Using Trey Gibson as a bullpen piece was an interesting choice, one likely done to keep the rest of the pen fresh in the middle of this long stretch without a day off. But that’s a lot to ask of a young pitcher, who rarely relieves, and will be making just his second career big league appearance.

But the pitching was the least of our concerns on this day. The lineup is struggling, and at this point we may just have to admit that it’s not very good. And those same players are also not doing well in the field either. It’s a mess with no obvious in-season solution other than holding on for dear life and praying it turns around.

Maybe the return of Jackson Holliday in the next week or two gives some minor boost to the bats, but it’s not as if he has ever shown the upside that was once raved about. The team simply needs more out of Henderson and Ward for starters. And they need some sort of legitimate solution at third base. It seems like the duo of Weston Wilson and Blaze Alexander is gonna get a chance to show what they can do. That doesn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence, but it has to be better than what the position has gotten to this point.

Links

Orioles hold Tupac Shakur bobblehead promotion, and his sister throws out the ceremonial first pitch | The Associated Press
By far the highlight of the evening was the Tupac bobblehead giveaway. Credit to the Orioles marketing department for giving fans a reason to show up at the ballpark because the play on the field certainly isn’t doing it!

Singleton can appreciate Ward’s walks | Roch Kubatko
Ward has been a good addition. The team does need him to hit more home runs, but he is walking at a ridiculous rate and doing his job as a table setter. There can’t be too many complaints about him with everything else going so poorly throughout the roster.

Pitcher Cade Povich becomes latest Oriole to go on the injured list | The Baltimore Banner
In case you missed it, Povich is now on the IL with elbow inflammation. That usually spells bad news for a pitcher, but Povich’s discomfort is on the outside of the arm, not the inside. Tommy John often starts with pain on the inside of the elbow, so the Orioles are optimistic that he will be back rather soon. Yay?

Why Bradish’s ol’ reliable might be key to 2026 turnaround | MLB.com
Bradish is still trying to figure out a successful formula on the mound. It seems like he is getting closer. The timing would be great as the Orioles need someone to step up in the middle of their current injury crisis.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Jace Peterson turns 36 today. He was a utility-man for 11 years in the majors, including a stint in Baltimore from 2018 through ‘19.
• Tom Chism is 72 years old. The first baseman played in six big league games, all of which came with the 1979 Orioles.
• Ron Jackson is 73. He wrapped up his decade in the majors with a 12-game stay on the 1984 Orioles.

This day in O’s history

1961 – Orioles slugger Jim Gentile becomes the third player in major league history to hit grand slams in consecutive innings. As part of a 13-5 whooping of the Twins, Gentile hits a pair of slams in the first and second innings. A sacrifice fly later in the game makes it a nine-RBI day for him.

1962 – The Orioles trade Marvelous Marv Throneberry to the Mets for catcher Hobie Landrith and cash.

1962 – Brooks Robinson becomes the sixth player of the 20th century to hit grand slams in consecutive games. His homer on this day lifts the Orioles to a 6-3 win over the Kansas City Athletics.

1973 – Al Bumbry and Rich Coggins both club their first major league home runs, but the Orioles lose 4-3 to the Athletics anyway.

1987 – Eddie Murray homers from each side of the plate for the second straight game, the first time that this has been accomplished in major league history. The quartet of home runs helps the Orioles win two games against the White Sox, 7-6 and 15-6.

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (20-16)

ROCHESTER 7, SYRACUSE 5 (BOX)

Syracuse got out to a 3-0 lead as Jonah Tong spun five scoreless innings to begin his outing, but a five-run sixth inning for Rochester saw the visitors get two runs against Tong and three against reliever Carlos Guzman. Syracuse scored one in the bottom of the frame and another in the bottom of the seventh to tie things up, but Mets reliever Dan Hammer gave up a pair of runs while recording just two outs in the top of the eighth.

Tong struck out eight, walked four, and now has a 4.46 ERA on the season. That might not sound impressive, but he has a 2.57 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 21.0 innings over his last four starts. He’s walked 11 over that span, which means there’s still room for improvement, but his recent work has been encouraging.

And Ryan Clifford had a three-hit night in the loss, notching a rare stolen base in the process.

• RF A.J. Ewing: 1-4, R, 2B, BB, K
• CF Nick Morabito: 1-3, R, 2 RBI, BB, K, SB
• 1B Ryan Clifford: 3-5, SB
• DH Christian Arroyo: 0-3, RBI, K
• 2B Ji Hwan Bae: 0-2, R, 2 BB, SB
• LF Cristian Pache: 0-4, 3 K
• 3B Yonny Hernández: 0-3, R, RBI, BB, K
• C Hayden Senger: 1-4, R, 3 K
• SS Jackson Cluff: 0-4, 3 K
• P Jonah Tong: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K
• P Carlos Guzman: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• P Luke Jackson: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• P Dan Hammer: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• P Ofreidy Gómez: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (11-20)

HARTFORD 4, BINGHAMTON 2 (BOX)

Neither team scored until the Yard Goats got a run in the top of the seventh, and the Rumble Ponies came right back with a pair of runs in the bottom of the inning. Unfortunately, the lead didn’t hold, as Hartford scored a couple of unearned runs against Ben Simon in the eighth before getting one more run in the top of the ninth against Zach Peek. Binghamton starting pitcher Jonathan Santucci was superb in this one, making it one of his best start of the young season.

• CF Eli Serrano III: 1-4, 2B, K
• 3B Jacob Reimer: 1-4, R, HR, RBI, K
• C Chris Suero: 2-4, R, 2 2B, K, SB
• LF Jose Ramos: 0-4, 2 K
• 2B Nick Lorusso: 0-3, RBI, K, E
• 1B JT Schwartz: 0-3
• RF TT Bowens: 0-3, K
• DH Matt Rudick: 0-3
• SS Wyatt Young: 0-3
• P Jonathan Santucci: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
• P Saul Garcia: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Ben Simon: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Zach Peek: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (8-21)

BROOKLYN 7, BOWLING GREEN 2 (BOX)

The Cyclones got a rare win as they scored first with a pair of runs in the second inning, scored at least one run in three other innings, and never relinquished the lead. Mitch Voit drove in the majority of their runs as he went 2-for-4 with a double, a strikeout, and a stolen base, and Colin Houck had a two-hit night that included a home run. Brooklyn starter Channing Austin struck out ten in just four-and-one-third innings, an impressive tally—even if the rest of his line looks just okay.

• SS Antonio Jimenez: 1-5, R, 2 K
• CF Yonatan Henriquez: 1-3, 2 R, 2B, 2 BB, K, SB
• 2B Mitch Voit: 2-4, 2B, 4 RBI, K, SB
• DH Corey Collins: 0-4, BB, 2 K
• C Daiverson Gutierrez: 0-4, BB, 2 K
• 3B Colin Houck: 2-5, R, HR, RBI, 2 K
• LF John Bay: 1-5, R, HR, RBI, 3 K
• 1B Trace Willhoite: 1-3, R, HR, RBI, BB, K
• RF Yohairo Cuevas: 2-4, R, 2B
• P Channing Austin: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
• P Gregori Louis: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Bryce Jenkins: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Cristofer Gomez: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (13-18)

LAKELAND 11, ST. LUCIE 4 (BOX)

An eight-run bottom of the third by Lakeland put this game out of reach very early, and all eight of those runs were charged to St. Lucie starter Cam Tilly. There wasn’t too much to get excited about in this one.

• SS Elian Peña: 0-4, K
• CF Edward Lantigua: 2-4, R, 2 2B, SB, E
• DH Randy Guzman: 0-4, 2 K
• LF AJ Salgado: 0-3, RBI, BB, 2 K
• RF Simon Juan: 0-4, 2 K
• 1B Chase Meggers: 2-4, R
• 3B Branny De Oleo: 1-4, R, 2B, 3 K
• C Francisco Toledo: 1-3, RBI, K
• 2B Jamari Baylor: 1-3, R, HR, 2 RBI, K
• P Cam Tilly: 2.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Zack Mack: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Miguel Mejias: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Tyler McLoughlin: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• P Christian Rodriguez: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Rookie: FCL Mets (1-4)

FCL CARDINALS 15, FCL METS 4 (BOX)

• 3B Bohan Adderley: 1-4, 2B, RBI, K, 2 E
• C Josmir Reyes: 0-3, BB, K
• SS Anthony Frobose: 0-4, R, 2 K
• DH Yovanny Rodriguez: 1-4, R, HR, RBI, 2 K
• CF Heriberto Rincon: 1-4, 2 K
• RF Justin Ramirez: 0-3, BB
• 1B Yeider Mindiola: 0-4, 2 K
• LF Adolfo Miranda: 0-4, K
• 2B Vladi Gomez: 1-1, 2 R, 3B, BB
• P Julio Gonzalez: 1.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• P Eris Albino: 2.0 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• P Caden Wooster: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Franyel Diaz: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Jean Brito: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

STARS OF THE NIGHT

Jonathan Santucci and Mitch Voit

GOAT OF THE NIGHT

Cam Tilly

At Coors Field, innings can become dangerous in a hurry.

A walk. A hit. A bloop. Suddenly, the inning is fraught with peril.

That is why a clean double play can feel like an escape hatch: one ground ball, two outs, crisis averted.

I love double plays.

Double plays have their own little language. 6-4-3. 4-6-3. 5-4-3. To the uninitiated, they just look like more numbers. To the converted, they are something closer to cheat codes. Every number is a position. Every dash is a throw.

The first number tells you where the trouble began. The last tells you where it ended.

The classic 6-4-3 is not the same as a 4-6-3. The 3-6-1 asks the pitcher to finish the job. The 1-2-3 is panic turned into process. The 7-6-3 is basically a practical joke. 

The double play is not one play, really. It is a family of escape routes. And for years, the Rockies used them more than almost anyone. 

A Rockies habit starts to wobble 

So where did the double plays go?

The Rockies still have the main ingredient: ground balls. As of May 9th, they ranked 12th in MLB in ground-ball rate at 42.3%.

But grounders need the right setup. A ground ball with nobody on is just an out.

The easy explanation is actually good news: the Rockies are walking fewer hitters. Fewer walks can mean fewer double-play chances — a trade I would make every day.

That explains part of the drop. But not all of it.

The pivot stat 

To be clear, the total double-play number includes more than the common infield turns. A strike-’em-out, throw-’em-out counts. So does a weird outfield double play.

rGDP is narrower. It is the pivot stat, aimed at shortstops and second basemen. It does not just count double plays; it asks whether a middle infielder completed the turn more or less often than an average fielder would, given the runner, batter, and batted ball.

For years, Colorado was good at this. Earlier this season, the Rockies dipped to -2 rGDP, which stood out against their recent history. They have since climbed back to league average, so the usual small-sample warnings apply. Still, that early dip suggested the issue was not only fewer opportunities. For a stretch, there was some efficiency wobble in the turn itself.

The counting stats help frame the question, too. FanGraphs splits double-play involvement into starts, turns, and finishes, and those buckets show how different the second-base profiles can be. Edouard Julien has started 10 double plays at second, but has been credited with only one turn. Willi Castro, in fewer innings at second, has been credited with four turns.

This is not a playing-time argument. Castro has been good at second, and he will still get reps there, but his value comes from moving around the infield. Julien is the bigger second-base question because the Rockies are giving him regular time there.

The second-base question 

Julien’s bat explains his opportunity in the field. Through 113 plate appearances, he has a .363 OBP and a .741 OPS, and the underlying profile backs it up: strong expected production, hard contact, good swing decisions.

The glove is the question.

His defensive numbers at second have been uneven, including -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in a small sample, and a few recent plays show why. Communication, the challenge of truly learning the position, and trouble on the turn have all worked against Julien — and against the double play.

One recent example against Atlanta stuck with me because the Rockies still got two outs. Julien fielded a grounder near second, started to take the bag himself, then hesitated as Ezequiel Tovar arrived expecting a feed. The throw to first was close enough for Atlanta to challenge, but the call stood. In the box score, it is just a 4-3 double play. The miscommunication does not show up.

These Mets clips show the other side of that coin: plays where not getting two outs becomes the story.

The first Mets clip shows the position-learning side of it. Julien fields the ball near second with Tovar moving to the bag, but instead of flipping to start the double play, he elects to chase the runner. 

Maybe that was the read he trusted. Maybe the timing made the choice harder than it looked. Either way, it shows how much decision-making lives inside a play that seems simple.

The second Mets clip shows the turn itself. Tovar starts the play, but Julien loses his footwork on the pivot and spikes the throw well in front of T.J. Rumfield at first.

That is the margin: An unclear exchange, a forced rundown, a throw in the dirt, and the double play can break. 

The turn can still come

While Julien is clearly still learning on the job in Colorado, that does not mean he is new to the position. Some of this is also physical — arm strength won’t drastically improve with more reps.

But the communication, timing, footwork on the pivot, and flow with Tovar can.

That is the part worth watching as the season moves along.

The Rockies still have ground balls. They still have Tovar. And Julien is getting real time at second. If the reps continue, if the rhythm sharpens, the double plays may return.

I hope they do. At Coors, this team could use more escape hatches. More clean turns. More innings that end before they become something worse.

Just don’t bring the walks back.

So, is this just an early-season wobble, or has one of the Rockies’ strangest little strengths actually changed?

On the Farm

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes 2, Sugar Land Space Cowboys 1

Albuquerque improved to 22-15 with a 2-1 win over Sugar Land, which fell to 17-20. Keegan Thompson gave the Isotopes a strong but short start, throwing 3 2/3 scoreless innings with three hits allowed and one strikeout. Cole Carrigg (No. 4 PuRP) used his speed to score the first run in the sixth, coming home from third on a soft groundout by Sterlin Thompson (No. 13 PuRP). Vimael Machín added what would prove to be the deciding run with his third home run of the season in the top of the ninth. The Isotopes managed only six hits, but the pitching staff held Sugar Land to 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Overall, Thompson went 1-for-3 with an RBI, a walk, and his seventh stolen base, pushing his OPS to .984, and Carrigg finished 1-for-4 with a walk and a run scored and is now hitting .366 with a .948 OPS.

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats 4, Binghamton Rumble Ponies 2

Roc Riggio (No. 14 PuRP) got the offense started late and turned a quiet night into a Hartford win. The Yard Goats beat Binghamton 4-2, moving to 14-16 while the Rumble Ponies dropped to 11-20. Riggio supplied most of the offense himself, hitting a solo homer in the seventh before adding a two-run shot in the eighth to put Hartford ahead for good. He finished 2-for-4 with two home runs and three RBI, raising his OPS to .823. Jose Torres added the final run with his fourth homer of the season in the ninth and also finished 2-for-4. Jake Brooks was solid in a no-decision, allowing two runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings with four strikeouts.

High-A: Spokane Indians 3, Tri-City Dust Devils 0

Spokane rode its pitching to a clean 3-0 win over Tri-City, moving to 12-19 while the Dust Devils fell to 17-14. Brody Brecht (No. 3 PuRP) set the tone with four scoreless innings, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out six. Stu Flesland III did plenty of the heavy lifting from there, adding four scoreless innings with three hits allowed, one walk, and four strikeouts before Jack Mann finished the shutout. Alan Espinal supplied the big swing, hitting a three-run homer in the sixth to break a scoreless tie. Ethan Hedges (No. 29 PuRP) and Robert Calaz (No. 6 PuRP) each added two hits as Spokane finished with eight hits and no errors.

Single-A: San Jose Giants 4, Fresno Grizzlies 3

Fresno fought back, but San Jose had the final answer in a 4-3 Grizzlies loss. Fresno dropped to 17-14, while the Giants improved to 19-12. Riley Kelly gave the Grizzlies a strong start, allowing one run on three hits over 3 2/3 innings with six strikeouts and no walks. Fresno trailed 3-0 before getting RBI singles from Derek Bernard and Matt Klein in the sixth. Cameron Nelson then tied it in the seventh with a bunt single that scored Luis Mendez, helped along by a throwing error. San Jose retook the lead in the bottom half on Isaiah Barkett’s RBI triple off Jhon Medina, who took the loss.

Why Rockies Face Early-Season Road Trip Test After Disappointing Homestand | SI.com

Scott Roche frames the Rockies’ Pennsylvania road trip as a useful early measuring stick after a rough 1-5 homestand. The Rockies are still trying to prove this start has some staying power, and six games against the Phillies and Pirates should give everyone a better read. For a team trying to move from “interesting” to “actually improving,” this is the kind of week that matters.

How the Schaeffers turned MLB life into a family adventure | MLB.com

Thomas Harding takes a softer turn with a look at Warren Schaeffer, his wife Callie, and the family life built around baseball. The piece makes clear that Schaeffer is more than happy to honor her, not just on Mother’s Day, as Callie has helped make the season work as a full-family adventure. It’s a sweet read about road trips, homeschooling, ballparks, and the people who keep things steady behind the scenes.

Antonio Senzatela Succeeding in New Full-Time Role for Rockies | SI.com

Tyler Miller checks in on Antonio Senzatela’s move into a full-time bulk relief role, where the early returns have been much better than last year’s rotation work. Senzatela picked up the save against the Mets with two strong innings and has a 1.11 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. For a Rockies pitching staff still trying to find functional roles, this is one of the cleaner success stories so far.

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