Category: Baseball

The World Series started with a bang last night, as the Brewers escaped with a close victory despite a ninth-inning rally (and some favorable umpiring) that led to the first run allowed in Trevor Megill’s postseason. See postgame comments from both managers and several of the key players in our Brewers Notes, here.

Don’t expect things to get any easier today. After the somewhat controversial decision to go with number-three starter Nick Martinez in Game 1, the Rays will send ace Drew Rasmussen, who has been the best starting pitcher in these playoffs, to the mound in Game 2 with an extra day of rest. Milwaukee will counter with Logan Henderson.

Rasmussen, the 31-year-old right-hander, has made three starts this postseason. In the first, he dominated the Yankees: eight innings, 10 strikeouts, one hit, two walks, no runs in a 1-0 victory. He pitched twice in the ALCS, first in a game in which he allowed just two runs (both solo homers) in six innings but lost, and a win in Game 5 when he went seven innings, struck out six, and allowed one run. Overall this postseason he’s averaging seven innings per start, has 23 strikeouts to just three walks, and has a 1.29 ERA and 2.58 FIP.

That postseason success follows a season that could see him finish in the top five in AL Cy Young voting. Rasmussen went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and league-leading marks in WHIP (0.913) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.44). Like Martinez, Rasmussen is one of the best pitchers in the league at limiting walks (just 1.7 per nine), so it’s a bit of an “unstoppable force, immovable object” situation with Milwaukee’s ultra patient lineup.

Folks will also remember that Rasmussen was, briefly, a Brewer. Milwaukee drafted him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft, and he debuted with the team in 2020. On May 21st, 2021, Rasmussen was the key piece going back to Tampa in one of the more consequential trades of the Brewers’ recent past, the swap that brought Willy Adames to Milwaukee. Rasmussen emerging into an ace over the last couple of years makes that sting a bit. But Adames is very popular franchise figure who gave the Brewers three-and-a-half very good seasons, and the Brewers were also compensated with the draft pick that turned into Brady Ebel, so it seems to be one of those trades that worked out for both sides.

For the Brewers, Henderson makes his third start of the postseason. Things haven’t been quite as easy for him in the playoffs as they were during the regular season, but his teammates (and his own defense) haven’t exactly picked him up; Henderson has allowed six runs over two postseason starts, but only three were earned. In five innings against the Padres, Henderson allowed just two hits but uncharacteristically walked three en route to two runs, one earned in a game that the Brewers won 4-3. In Game 2 of the NLCS against Los Angeles, Henderson went four innings, walked two, allowed three hits, and gave up four runs, though only two were earned. Milwaukee was resilient in that game and won 7-4.

We’re still waiting to see the best version of Henderson, the one who went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA during the regular season. That pitcher matched Rasmussen’s sparkling 1.7 BB/9 and struck out batters at a higher rate, giving him a K:BB ratio (5.79) that bested even the Tampa ace’s American-League-leading mark. Brewers fans will also be hoping that Henderson didn’t get into his own head after two bad throws to first handed the Dodgers a pair of runs in the NLCS; I wouldn’t be surprised if Chandler Simpson checked on Henderson’s confidence in his throwing arm during his first at-bat tonight.

In a bit of a surprise (only because they almost never did this during the regular season), the Brewers are rolling out the same lineup tonight against Rasmussen as they did yesterday versus Nick Martinez, with Jackson Chourio leading off, followed by Jake Bauers, Christian yelich, William Contreras, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Cooper Pratt, Sal Frelick, and David Hamilton. The Rays made a change at second base, where Richie Palacios, who is batting .364 in the postseason, enters the lineup in place of Ben Williamson.

First pitch is around 7:15pm on Fox, with pregame coverage starting at 6pm. Of course, you can always find the game on the Brewers Radio Network.

Ready for more

📺: FOX
📻: WTMJ#WinOurWaypic.twitter.com/GRopjwfKwQ

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 24, 2026

The #WorldSeries Game 2 lineup for @RaysBaseball! pic.twitter.com/rMqH0LVgv3

— MLB (@MLB) October 24, 2026

2026 stats: .324/ .360/ .440, 121 wRC+, 10 FRV, 3.8 fWARover105 G, 464 PA w/Giants.

Luis Arráez was arguably the best thing about the San Francisco Giants 2026 season. The best because it was so unexpected. The best because there are so few good options to choose from.

Luis Arráez’s freakish bat-to-ball skills in an era of swing-and-miss offense has set him apart from his peers, giving him a certain sheen that some teams can’t resist. We’ve known his name since he emerged his rookie year in 2019 because he’s different. He’s been elected to four All-Star teams in the past five years because isn’t that how you treat players who hit pitches without fail?

The point of baseball is to hit the baseball. As much as that essential truth has been flat-out refuted and refused by slug-hungry analysts, it’s hard to get around the fact that hitters need to hit. It’s right there in the name. Arráez is a hitter. Thanks to this unique skillset became a continent-traversing hired gun. An outsider. A man from a different era, maintaining his relevancy because a high-average, zero-power hitter has always been relevant. The Twins traded him to Miami in January of 2023. The Marlins traded him to San Diego in May of 2024. Two leagues, three coasts (if we count lakes), three different time-zones, and three batting titles. Each move he’s flown first class with his bat swaddled in the seat next to him. But tossed unceremoniously in with the other luggage, stuffed in the plane’s cargo hold like a dark secret — Arráez’s glove.     

Going into the 2026 season, Arráez had a career -54 Fielding Run Value. His best defensive season according to that metric (excluding the shortened 2020 season) was the 2021 season with the Twins when he logged more innings at third than second and patrolled left field for more than 100 innings. Across those three positions he accrued a -4 Run Value. The year he won his first batting title in 2022 his FRV dropped to -5.

In Miami, primarily at second base, his FRV fell to an untenable -11. He only hit 10 homers. Two numbers that aren’t directly related, but illustrative. Generally if you allow runs because of your glove, it’s nice to balance things out by scoring runs with your bat. That’s not Arráez. 2024 was split between Miami and San Diego, second base and first, and again he posted a dismal -11 FRV. He knocked just four dingers.

San Diego kept Arráez tethered to first base in 2025 and even with him tucked in the corner, he once again accrued a -11 FRV while hitting just 8 homers. He also fell off the batting average pedestal for the first time since 2021. The fall wasn’t far. His .292 average ranked fourth in the league, but slipping below .300 number is never a good look for a supposed batting champion. His 104  wRC+ in 2025, essentially league average, was the lowest of his career, as was his 0.9 fWAR. 

The timing was awful considering the well-traveled Arráez was entering into free agency for the first time. He had just posted a -33 FRV in three years. He couldn’t play the field. He couldn’t hit for power. He was too good at making contact to walk. On top of that his bat appeared to be splintering.  No wonder he sat on the shelf for most of the winter. Even Buster Posey, with his old-school love of batting average and low-K rates, seemed reluctant to dig this can of lima beans from the pantry. But by the end of January, options for filling the perceived hole at second base were limited. Arráez was certainly not the second base solution fans envisioned. Brady put words to what many of us were feeling when the news broke of the one-year, $12 million deal. 

Posey took a swing. A swing he really didn’t have to make. A swing better described as a lunge, a reflexive hack at a pitch in the dirt — but not only did he make contact, the baseball found a hole.

Luis Arráez was unexpectedly good in 2026. Good measured against himself, and good measured against his adjacent peers. While the rest of the Giants’ lineup taxied on the runway at the start of the season, Arráez took off. His monthly splits climbed from .324 in April, to .340 in May, to .354 in June. Similarly his slugging skipped skyward as well, from .394 to .490 to .536.   

By the end of June, Luis Arráez led the team with a .331 batting average, 15 points above Jung Hoo Lee. His .836 OPS was second to Bryce Eldridge’s .841, and 30 points above breakout star Casey Schmitt, as well as 75 points, 100 points higher than club core of Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman.

His plate appearances became a drink of cool water for parched fans. Posey was right — it was fun to see basehits. But it wasn’t just the dinks and doinks, it was the expressiveness of his at-bats. An Arráez plate appearance was a sensory experience from start to finish. Hitting was a dance with the pitcher, the opposite of Buster ball with his khaki stoicism. He’d often take a first pitch without breaking eye-contact with the pitcher. Sometimes he’d taunt a ball he knew was off the plate, guiding it into the catcher’s glove before doing a  little tango step and shoulder-shimmy in the box. His bat was a conductor’s baton, a shovel, a rapier. He parried away pitches, yipped at foul balls, bat-flipped singles. He invited two-strike counts, batting a MLB-leading .299 with his back against the wall while striking out just 8.8% of the time. The next lowest K-percentage in two-strike counts was Nico Hoerner’s 18.5%. Willy Adames saw a third strike nearly 50% of the time. 2026 was the fifth time in his career that his walk rate was higher than his strikeout rate. His 20 at-bats-per-strikeout was the third highest rate for a Giant in the San Francisco era (min. 300 PA). 

Despite leaving at the trade deadline, two months prior to the end of the season, Arráez ended the year leading all Giants players with a 3.8 fWAR.

That 3.8 mark is the best of his career because this season was by far his best all-around year. The aforementioned offensive numbers weren’t surprising. His bat improved from 2025, but it didn’t come out of the blue. What did feel like it was conjured up from nothing was his performance on defense.

Arráez completely transformed himself as a member of the Giants’ infield. His -11 Fielding Run Value in 2025 was nearly flipped perfectly on its head to +10 FRV. A 21 run swing that put him in the 91st percentile of the league. His 12 outs above average was fifth most among all second basemen.

These results border on the miraculous. Water into wine type stuff, and watching Arráez out at second base felt a bit like a party. He didn’t play like a reprogrammed fielding robot. He played with flair and lightness, born again. He picked short hops with attitude and exaggerated underhand feeds with a whole-body lunge. He relished throwing off one foot, on the run, contorting his body to look like a Baroque sculpture as he discovered new ways to deliver the ball to first. Fielding coach Ron Washington, hired a couple months prior to Arráez, was the miracle worker, the one to touch the infielders clumsy oven-mitt hands and make them soft. But it wasn’t just a physical change, but a mental and spiritual one as well. Washington had Arráez out on the field in Scottsdale, morning dew still clinging to the grass, peppering him with grounders, and he had him laid out on the couch as well, delving into his subconscious, his anxieties and fears in order to reclaim second base as a field to roam, to frolic, to literally play in. Matisse said he spent his entire career trying to relearn how to draw like a child. Maybe that’s what Arráez did in the 2026 season. He rediscovered the joy.  

Though he fell short of a fourth batting title (.310, 2nd in NL to Gabriel Moreno’s .311) and a career first Gold Glove nomination, Arráez’s 2026 was one to remember. A year to hang a bat, hat, and glove on. He played so well that he played himself out of the orange-and-black uniform, which is maybe not the ideal situation, but a pretty good one considering the initial risk taken.

So let’s give credit where credit is due. Posey got this one right. The problem became that a lot of the other things went wrong. Adames never figured out his offense or defense. Chapman hobbled around the diamond for a little bit before going completely AWOL. Devers launched into the stratosphere pretty much the moment Arráez shipped off to Philadelphia. The four of them seemed to enjoy making faces across the infield while whipping the baseball at each other, but they never could coordinate how to turn their wheels in the same direction at the same time. A shame, for a number of reasons — one of them being that we didn’t get to watch Luis Arráez play baseball the last two months of the season.

Frelick and Pratt lift Brewers to 5-4 comeback win over Rays and 2-0 World Series lead originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Sal Frelick tied the score with his first home run in three months, Cooper Pratt hit a go-ahead single in the seventh inning and the Milwaukee Brewers stunned the Tampa Bay Rays 5-4 on Saturday night for a 2-0 World Series lead by overcoming a four-run deficit for the second time in the postseason.

Tampa Bay, which won the AL pennant by forcing opponents into mistakes, committed one error, made two other misplays that could have been charged as errors and had a runner thrown out at the plate.

Down 4-0 in the first inning, Milwaukee rallied for its seventh comeback win of this postseason. The Brewers also rebounded from a 4-0 deficit to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 in Game 4 of the NL Championship Series, completing a four-game sweep.

After losing Friday’s opener 3-2, the Rays burst ahead against rookie Logan Henderson but the Brewers started to claw back with two runs in the bottom half against Tampa Bay ace Drew Rasmussen.

David Hamilton cut the deficit to 4-3 with a run-scoring grounder in the fourth and Frelick capped a nine-pitch at-bat against Ian Seymour in the sixth by driving a fastball over the center-field fence.

Frelick had gone 103 plate appearances without a home run since his July 11 drive off Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft and had not gone deep against a lefty pitcher since opening day against Tyler Gilbert of the Chicago White Sox. Frelick sped around the bases in 18.72 seconds, half the time of some theatrical trots this postseason.

Screaming fans at the second game of Milwaukee’s first World Series since 1982 were fired up during the seventh-inning stretch, dancing to the “Beer Barrel Polka” played by Mike Schneider, an accordionist from Clinton, Wisconsin.

Brice Turang doubled against losing pitcher Tyler Wells on the second pitch of the bottom half, advanced on Garrett Mitchell’s flyout to right and scored when Pratt, a 22-year-old who debuted in June, looped a sinker from Kevin Kelly into short right field.

Abner Uribe pitched 1 1/3 hitless innings for the win.

Jonny DeLuca doubled off Aaron Ashby starting the ninth, then Victor Mesa Jr. struck out when he couldn’t check his swing. Pinch-hitter Ben Williamson’s groundout advanced the runner and Yandy Díaz struck out when he couldn’t check his swing on a full-count pitch.

Ashby has three saves in the postseason while not allowing a run.

Milwaukee won its seventh straight game, becoming the fifth team to twice overcome four-run deficits for victories in a single postseason and the first since Philadelphia in 2022.

Game 3 of the matchup between teams seeking their first title is Monday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, where the Brewers last played in 2023.

Of the 57 previous teams to take 2-0 World Series leads, 46 claimed the championship.

Tampa Bay took a 4-2 lead in the highest-scoring Series first inning since 1993’s Game 4 as teams combined for seven hits, tying the most in an opening frame.

Still, Milwaukee improved to 13-0 in games started by Henderson, dating to his 2025 debut. He followed Jacob Misiorowski in the Brewers’ rotation, the first time teammates 24 or younger started the first two games of the Series since Cincinnati’s Gary Nolan and Ross Grimsley in 1972.

Henderson started on 11 days’ rest and struggled as the Rays fouled off 13 of 35 pitches in the first. He gave up four runs — three earned — in three innings.

Given an extra day of rest, Rasmussen allowed three runs and six hits over 3 2/3 innings in his shortest start since July 9.

Pratt made his fourth error of the postseason at shortstop, the Brewers’ ninth in 10 games, bouncing his throw past first baseman Jake Bauers on a leadoff grounder by Díaz. Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero followed with RBI singles, and Liam Hicks hit a two-run homer.

Jackson Chourio and Bauers started the bottom half with singles and first baseman Jonathan Aranda allowed Contreras’ one-out foul pop to bounce out of his mitt near netting in front of the seats.

With Bauers running on a full-count pitch, Contreras bounced an RBI single to the left of second baseman Richie Palacios, who had taken a step toward the base. Mitchell’s two-out single cut the deficit to 4-2.

Hamilton hit an RBI grounder in the fourth that bounced under Aranda’s legs for an error.

Chourio threw out Hicks from left for the final out of the sixth when third base coach Brady Williams waved the slow-footed catcher to try to score from second on Mesa’s single.

Up next

Rays RHP Freddy Peralta, who became a two-time All-Star when he pitched for the Brewers from 2018-25, starts Game 3. He was the AL Championship Series MVP and is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in three postseason starts and one relief appearance. He will be opposed by Brewers LHP Robert Gasser, who allowed one run over nine innings in his first two postseason starts.

A little over two weeks ago, the New York Yankees were eliminated from World Series contention in the American League Division Series for the second consecutive campaign. At times, they didn’t even put up a fight, being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays 3-0 in the best-of-five series. Prior to that, they won 93 games and finished 4.5 behind the Rays in the race for the AL East. That’s a solid season for virtually any other team, but losing the division and experiencing such an early postseason exit is often associated with frustration and disappointment in the Bronx.

This week, chairman and managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner faced the media and didn’t even hesitate for a second to put it all on the players, particularly the offense.

“I don’t think you can pin the season and the unacceptable end to it on Aaron [Boone],” Steinbrenner said on a Zoom call. “I don’t think you can pin it on [Brian Cashman], based on the roster he put together.

“In the end, the majority of the responsibility — I’ll say it for the fifth time, in my mind, my opinion — lies with the position players and the inability to score on a consistent basis throughout the course of the entire season, for the most part,” Steinbrenner said. “Not on the shoulders of Aaron Boone does the blame lie.”

Usually, in these cases, those who make the decisions and have to face the press either take the responsibility themselves or adopt a shared blame approach. Throwing the players under the bus like this doesn’t seem like a particularly good idea, especially when Steinbrenner decides to employ Cashman as his GM and Boone as his manager — these two are the ones actually choosing the players who step into the box and onto the mound.

One has to think that the Steinbrenner conference didn’t sit well with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, and other veterans on the roster. No one knows what is said behind closed doors, but it’s hard to envision the players loving the Zoom conference.

Now, nobody is saying that the players should be on the clear. On the contrary: they deserve a sizable portion of the blame. They were, after all, the ones competing on the field and failing to execute when it mattered against the Rays and, for stretches, during the regular season.

Austin Wells had one of the worst halves in Yankees history for a regular and even after rebounding, he committed a game-changing baserunning mistake in Game 1 of the ALDS. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was inconsistent and error-prone, Ryan McMahon was an offensive liability all year, and Anthony Volpe had another uneven season, just to name a few other disappointments. Trent Grisham had a .613 OPS in the second and then hit .133 in five October games with an awful AB to end the season. Who insisted on using Grisham in both center and then the leadoff spot in the finale, though? And who was responsible for the offense not having any contingency plans at catcher and third base? Yes, the men at the top. Surely they deserve at least some slice on the Blame Game pie chart and not total absolution.

Regarding Grisham at the leadoff spot, no other circumstance, stat, or situation other than “gut feeling” was behind the decision to use him at the top. He had been bad up there all year, and the numbers back it up:

During 2026 regular season, 28 batters got 225+ PA batting leadoff.

Trent Grisham ranks among those batters:

.199 BA (28th)
.303 OBP (27th)
.378 SLG (25th)
.680 OPS (27th)

— Katie Sharp (@SharpStats17) October 8, 2026

Once Boone and Cashman make a decision, they tend to stick with it even if the house of cards is falling. The ability to adapt and adjust is just not there, nor is the willingness.

The complete lack of self-criticism from Steinbrenner was baffling, and honestly, a bit frustrating. Maybe the players need to be blamed the most for the postseason fiasco, but when the same mistakes occur year after year, it shouldn’t be on the players anymore. Althought the rosters have changed, there have been two constants for every postseason failure from 2018 onward: Boone and Cashman. The Yankees have a losing playoff record under them at 27-30, and the latter’s spotty résumé goes back even longer.

The Yankees have issues in roster and lineup construction, scouting, player development (hitting-wise, at least), and several other departments. Unless they improve some of their resources and practices, they are doomed to keep striking out in October, literally and figuratively.

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays battle for a World Series title, Chicago’s struggles with runners in scoring position reveal an offensive weakness the White Sox must address.

The Rays spent six months making runners in scoring position (RISP) a strength. On Friday night, six missed opportunities helped turn their 2026 World Series opener into a loss.

Tampa Bay went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position against the Brewers, falling 3-2 despite advancing the tying run 90 feet from home in the ninth inning. A team that led Major League Baseball with a .283 batting average in those situations suddenly found itself searching for one more productive swing.

“We had traffic on the bases pretty much all night,” Rays shortstop Taylor Walls told MLB.com. “But [we] weren’t able to get that big hit, that timely hit, the double with a runner on first or a single with runners in scoring position.”

More than 1,200 miles away, the White Sox could recognize the frustration.

Chicago’s postseason ended against Cleveland with a different statistical problem but a similar consequence: Runners never reached home plate.

The White Sox hit .243 with RISP during the regular season, ranking 22nd in the majors. They struck out 397 times in 1,361 official at-bats in those situations, a 29.2% K-rate.

By comparison, Tampa Bay hit .283 with RISP, while Milwaukee followed at .276. Both clubs combined consistent contact with aggressive baserunning, providing a different offensive model than Chicago’s power-oriented lineup.

The problem became particularly evident during the American League Division Series.

Although the White Sox hit .275 with runners in scoring position across seven postseason games, they struck out 21 times in 51 at-bats with RISP. Cleveland pitchers struck out 75 Chicago hitters during the five-game ALDS, including an all-time record of 21 in the decisive Game 5.

Manager Will Venable acknowledged that the problem extended beyond chasing pitches outside the strike zone, to misses in the zone, and his assessment revealed a fundamental challenge: Against elite pitching, even hitters making reasonable swing decisions can struggle to produce contact.

That becomes particularly costly with a runner on third and fewer than two outs, as a sacrifice fly or a well-placed ground ball can score a run without a hit. A strikeout, however, leaves the runner exactly where he started.

Modern hitting philosophies emphasize power, patience and avoiding unnecessary outs. Those principles have merit, but postseason baseball frequently demands a more situational approach.

Milwaukee demonstrated that on Friday.

Christian Yelich drove home Jackson Chourio with a first-inning triple, William Contreras followed with an RBI single, and Chourio added a two-out RBI single in the seventh.

The Brewers went 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position, but those hits helped secure a one-run victory.

Milwaukee scored 832 runs during the regular season despite hitting only 154 home runs. Chicago hit 211 homers but scored 776 runs. The Brewers also stole 162 bases compared with Chicago’s 93, demonstrating another way to create offensive pressure.

Those differences suggest the White Sox do not necessarily need to abandon power. They need a more balanced offensive approach.

That balance has been an organizational question throughout the past decade, as Chicago has cycled through rebuilding rosters, veteran lineups and postseason contenders. The 2026 results provide another reason to examine whether the club has consistently struggled to convert scoring opportunities.

For players such as Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Miguel Vargas, improvement must include producing quality plate appearances against elite pitching. Montgomery’s power remains valuable, but the White Sox need consistent contact throughout the lineup.

Free agency could provide additional options.

Luis Arráez offers a contact-oriented offensive profile, while potential free agents Bo Bichette, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki represent different combinations of hitting ability and overall production.Simply acquiring a hitter with a high RISP average, however, would not guarantee improvement. 

Tampa Bay’s World Series opener demonstrated that even baseball’s most productive situational hitters can struggle when opportunities arise.

Rays manager Kevin Cash remained confident despite the loss.

“This is an extremely confident group,” Cash said. “They’re going to be fine.”

Chicago’s challenge is finding that same confidence while developing the offensive consistency needed to advance deeper into October.

The White Sox proved they could hit enough home runs to reach the postseason. Cleveland demonstrated that power alone was not enough to survive it.

And as Milwaukee showed Friday, sometimes the difference between winning and losing isn’t the ball that leaves the park. It’s the one that brings the runner home.

I think its important when evaluating front office performance to also evaluate the moves the team could’ve made but chose not to just as much as you evaluate the deals they made. Last December, one of the major storylines of the entire MLB offseason was whether or not the Arizona Diamondbacks were going to trade Ketel Marte. Marte was just wrapping up another typical season for himself in which he created a lot of value, but was also a major source of off the field distraction. The narrative at the time was that they were ‘listening’ on Ketel Marte but not actively trying to move him. Even with his pending 10 and 5 rights that were set to vest at the beginning of the 2026 season in April. This led to plenty of speculation by the industry as to whether he might be moved and where he might end up.

The Boston Red Sox seemed to ultimately get the closest and according to Alex Speier at the Boston Globein February of 2026, the Red Sox were heavily interested and had offered a package of Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias for Marte. According to Speier, the Dbacks insisted that Marcelo Mayer be included in the deal and the Red Sox refused. That would effectively seal Marte’s fate with the Dbacks for 2026 and potentially beyond. But what would this team have looked like if Hazen and co hadn’t been so insistent on Marcelo Mayer and just said yes to Tolle and Arias for Marte? This article will rewind the clock and examine just that.

In fairness, I need to put the disclaimer here that none of the results are guaranteed on the new teams because there are a ton of factors that dictate player performance. I also don’t have a crystal ball, so for the purposes of this exercise lets just assume the players had the same 2026 regardless of what team they were on. Also in fairness to Mike Hazen, it is easy to play captain hindsight. It is much harder to make the moves in the moment. However for entertainment purposes only, lets revisit the trade that almost was and analyze the ripple effects.

Trade: Bos Recieves: Ketel Marte Ari Recieves: Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias.

The Dbacks acquire the fastball heavy prospect Payton Tolle and they finally get the bat missing controllable arm they have coveted. They also would acquire a top middle infield prospect that would’ve likely started the season in Amarillo and got promoted to Reno and honestly could’ve pushed for some big league time, however for the purposes of this exercise lets assume Arias would’ve spent the season in the minors and not contributed any major league value.

In a corresponding move, Ari signs 3B Alex Bregman 5yr $175 million

If the Dbacks traded Marte, it is widely speculated that they would’ve signed Alex Bregman. There was a lot of reporting that Bregman wanted to play for the Dbacks and live where he played year round similar to the Corbin Burnes situation. Especially if the Dbacks had traded Ketel Marte as reported by Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic For the purposes of this exercise lets assume the exact same contract only its entirely likely he wouldve came at a slightly cheaper rate. I also think its not just a coincidence that the day after Arizona acquired Nolan Arenado on 1/12, Bregman signed with the Cubs. In my opinion, he was clearly holding out for a deal with Arizona. So in this world, Dbacks trade Marte and to fill the gap in the middle of their lineup, they sign Alex Bregman.

Moves that then Would’ve Never Happened: Sign Zac Gallen and trade for Nolan Arenado

By signing Bregman and acquiring Tolle, I think its all but certain the Dbacks dont sign Zac Gallen and it likely they dont trade for Arenado although I suppose there is another world out there where Arenado reportedly was willing to play first base. We wont go there though for the purposes of this. So no Nado and no Gallen.

What Would’ve Been the Net Effect?

In fairness to Hazen and Co, this is a little hand wavey assuming that the Dbacks are able to get the same breakout out of Tolle that the Red Sox were. However it is also kind of offset by the breakout the Dbacks were able to get out of Arenado. But for the purposes of this exercise, lets assume the same production in 2026. The result? An additional 4.4 wins almost completely from acquiring Tolle and not signing Gallen. This is where it really hurts:

The Money

To add insult to injury, this version of the 2026 Dbacks roster would’ve likely been about 10-11 million cheaper than they were:

Here is what this would’ve looked like long term financially:

So essentially, the trade would’ve saved 10-11 million in 2026 and cost almost that same amount back for 2027.

Franklin Arias

In addition, this organization would also have a clear consensus top 100 prospect in Franklin Arias who is currently MLB Pipeline’s #2 prospect in all of baseball after the 20 year old SS had a steller 2026 batting .323 with 25 HR in 117 games. Arias has posted elite contact rates at all levels of the minor league’s to go along with some pop at a premium position. This would’ve also solved much of the ‘lack of impact talent’ label this farm system as a whole currently holds and given this team a SS or 2B option of the future with Ketel Marte gone.

Conclusion

I think its fair to assume this is likely a move Mike Hazen and co would want back. Especially considering you add 4 wins to this 2026 club and you likely have a 90 win playoff contender. In addition you also add long term stability to your starting rotation and middle infield at league minimum cost. Had this trade been made, you likely were playing baseball the past couple of weeks, and head into the 2027 season with the rotation anchored by a solid pairing of youth and experience in Burnes and Tolle. You also have Alex Bregman and his leadership coming off of a near 6 WAR season anchoring the middle of the order for years to come and the #2 prospect in all of baseball per MLB Pipeline heading into the offseason.

As I mentioned, there are a ton of variables that could’ve impacted performance one way or the other. Especially when you consider guys playing on different teams and the team dynamics changing. Its not as simple as adding and subtracting WAR in my opinion. We are also basing all of this on reporting from reputable outlets like the Boston Globe and The purposes of this analysis is purely an exercise to further evaluate the decision making of this organization and a fun little ‘what could’ve been’ experiment.

The Yankees knew that there was one face of Aaron Boone’s coaching staff who they could not risk getting away from them, and they made sure to handle it before his contract officially expired. Matt Blake, the team’s pitching coach since the 2020 campaign, has reportedly agreed to a three-year extension to remain with the team according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Heyman’s colleague Joel Sherman had reported yesterday that the two sides were working on a new deal, and with his current deal set to expire at the conclusion of this year’s World Series, the time was nearing to get this thing done.

Blake has transformed the Yankees’ pitching philosophy since entering the organization, having the reins handed to him to lead an analytical breakdown of their pitching staff that has led to significant success. This season Yankees pitchers had the best collective ERA in baseball with a 3.23 mark, ranked third with a 3.71 FIP, and collected the fifth most fWAR at 21.9. Any way you sliced it, their pitching was the MVP of the roster, and it was led by the presumptive Cy Young Award winner in Cam Schlitter. They were far from a one-man show though, for once having more starting pitching than the team knew what to do with despite dealing with a host of injuries, as Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodón all turned in fine seasons.

The biggest factor in Blake’s rise to the top of the organization has been his work with the lesser-known prospects and journeymen the team has cobbled together. Will Warren has turned into a dependable fifth starter who most teams would jump at the opportunity to slot into the middle of their rotation, and Ryan Weathers took a major leap this year when trusted with a role in the front five after being acquired last offseason. Meanwhile, the bullpen has continued to take on unknowns and spit out gems, this year seeing Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick form an unstoppable bridge to closer David Bednar after both entered the year as relative afterthoughts. The team has gotten similar leaps from relievers in the past, like Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver (who both served as the team’s closers in recent years), and reined in enough of Fernando Cruz’s wildness to make him an effective middle inning reliever until a UCL tear ended his season. Brian Cashman gets a lot of credit for finding the pieces of this staff out of thin air, but Blake’s role in leading the “pitching lab” has been just as crucial in developing their talent.

Blake now sits as one of the few men on the coaching staff with a secure position within the organization. His side of the roster was unquestionable in their dogged pursuit of title No. 28 this season, and overall has produced time and time again since Blake has arrived. The man above him doesn’t have that much security, with Boone entering the final year of his contract this season without an extension in front of him. The pitchers have bought into Blake’s direction wholeheartedly and the results have been plain to see — now the work begins on finding the next set of unheralded arms to transform.

Today marks Chris Colabello’s 43rd birthday.

The Blue Jays claimed Chris Colabello off waivers from the Twins before the 2015 season. During his two years with Minnesota, he posted a .214/.284/.364 line with 13 home runs in 114 games. Understandably, expectations were low for a 31-year-old first baseman/DH who hadn’t hit well enough to earn regular playing time.

Chris impressed in spring training. When Michael Saunders suffered a knee injury on a sprinkler head in Dunedin, the team suddenly needed outfield help. Dalton Pompey’s slow start and the Jays’ impatience led to Colabello getting the call-up in early May.

Colabello played the outfield with all the elegance of a statue—reminiscent of early Jays experiments with Otto Velez—but he found his swing at the plate. By the end of his first month, he was batting an impressive .368/.417/.568.

By late June, it was clear Chris’s bat couldn’t make up for his glove in the outfield, so he shifted to first base and DH. Justin Smoak, also new to the 2015 roster, wasn’t having a strong season, though his power was undeniable—when Smoak homered, it was never a cheap shot.

Unfortunately, the GameThreads devolved into endless debates about who should play first. For the first time, I found myself avoiding them. Chris nevertheless had an outstanding season, finishing at .321/.367/.520 with 15 home runs in 101 games. His defense limited his value—he posted a 0.7 bWAR.

He shined in the ALDS, hitting .375/.412/.688, but struggled in the ALCS, managing only .217/.250/.391.

We wondered if he could replicate his success. His .411 BABIP seemed unsustainable to many of us, but with more walks and fewer strikeouts, there was hope he could still produce solid numbers.

We never got to find out. Chris began the 2016 season in a slump, hitting just .069/.156/.225.

Then came the news of his positive PED test. With MLB’s improved testing, several players were caught that year, and Chris received an 80-game suspension. He claimed not to know how the substance entered his system and gave an emotional interview to Sportsnet. Personally, I’m skeptical of such claims—but who can say for sure? The slow start may have been because he knew the suspension was coming.

In 2017, he played in the minors for Cleveland and Milwaukee, hitting .254/.350/.395. He spent 2018 in Italy and 2019 in the independent leagues. I admire players who love the game enough to keep playing, even in the independents. He also played for Italy in the WBC in 2017 and played in Mexico for a season

Chris always seemed likable and was fun to watch (if a bit less so in the outfield). I hope things are going well for him.

Happy birthday, Chris. Wishing you all the best.

Before we begin looking ahead to 2027, OTM is looking back at 2026, highlighting some of the biggest, strangest, and most memorable moments of a memorable season. Today, we look back at the belated season debut of a new rotation mainstay.

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So much was made of Brayan Bello’s redemption arc — a spring demotion to Triple-A followed by a subsequent rebirth as a dominant bulk reliever — that many (including this writer) briefly forget that an even better starter actually began 2026 in Triple-A.

The 2026 Red Sox roster was notable for how awesome the rotation looked in March. It was rife with the presence of a recent Cy Young runner-up in Garrett Crochet, Bello, who was fresh off the World Baseball Classic, Ranger Suarez, who was an exciting addition to the top of the rotation from Philadelphia, another addition in Sonny Gray, and Connelly Early, who looked amazing even in defeat in 2025’s Wild Card Round at Yankee Stadium. That, of course, left a couple guys on the outside looking in, including Payton Tolle, who himself pitched in the waning moments of last season.

If there was any internal competition between the two young guns, it was manufactured if it existed at all. The duo took pictures together, were inseparable on broadcasts, and had nothing but praise for each other. Tolle, a towering lefty just like his newfound best friend and rotation-mate Early, had his four-seam fastball in spades. He also had one of the best call-up videos I have ever seen prior to his first start against eventual NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes on August 29 (featuring a WooSox manager he surely would never see again, right?)

While Tolle had his fastball, though, he lost ground to Early in the early going of each’s career with the amount of times he was taken over an outfield wall; 5 in 18 innings, to be exact, in comparison to Early avoiding that feat in his 19 innings. That was probably the defining factor in the decision to give Early his first Opening Day roster nod in what will, in all likelihood, become a successful career… in Washington, amongst other places, as Tolle, after a 2026 campaign that saw him notch 171 strikeouts and pitch to an ERA just a hair over 3, is a lock to capture his first Opening Day slot in 2027. So how did we get here? We can look at April 23 at Yankee Stadium as a pivotal point.

The Red Sox had just gotten a good 3 2/3 innings in relief out of Eduardo Rivera, who had never pitched higher than Double-A in his short professional career. Garrett Crochet was, to put it bluntly, not pitching well, but it would not be revealed until later in the week that he was actually dealing with shoulder inflammation that would place him on the Injured List for the remainder of the season. Thus, Alex Cora needed a starter for the third game at Yankee Stadium on Friday night on Apple TV, and who better than a guy who was mowing them down in Worcester to face Cam Schlittler?

The game started out as a duel. Tolle looked every bit up to the challenge. After three consecutive balls in the exact same spot to Amed Rosario, Tolle came back in the count. K. He then sat Aaron Judge down on four pitches. And that fastball would bite Ben Rice, clocking in at 98. He’d then get Giancarlo Stanton and Randal Grichuk. Five hitters, five strikeouts. Tolle was back, and he was here to stay. In fact, he’d not allow a baserunner until the fourth inning.

All told, Tolle would wrap up his night confidently, even with allowing a home run to Jazz Chisholm. His 3 up, 3 down in the sixth including two strikeouts, number 10 and number 11 on the night, finished his outing. It would be the most strikeouts a Red Sox pitcher had on the season until Sonny Gray tied it in Colorado two months later; Tolle would eventually have the title on the team with 14 against the Athletics. Sadly, Alex Cora made a few managing mishaps that would define the beginning of the 2026 season and would do him in. The signature tells were both in effect here, but one was no fault of his: the offense wouldn’t really support the good start out of Tolle outside of a Carlos Narvaez home run, and Cora’s part in the loss was calling on Greg Weissert with inherited runners (from Danny Coulombe) when there was plenty of evidence that those inherited runners would score. And score they did – the final score: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2.

The Yankees would complete the sweep against the Red Sox, take the season series, and end the Red Sox season some months later. That was Tolle’s best night for a couple of months, and some of his tells still existed. He still allowed home runs at a higher rate than most of the other rotation. But he went deep into games and certainly struck guys out. Every team wants a pitcher that gives them a real chance to win. After July 7, the team would be on the losing end of a Tolle start just twice in the regular season. The encouraging news, even with the fifth consecutive loss at Yankees Stadium, is that, on that fateful night in the Bronx, the Red Sox’s rivals had no answer for a guy who hopefully will be a foundation of the rotation for years to come.

The 2026 World Series matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays (boo!) and the Milwaukee Brewers (yay!) kicked off last night, and that can only mean one thing: the season is officially almost at a close. There are at most six games remaining, and baseball will be over after Halloween. Pretty soon, the stadium lights will dim, the locker rooms will go quite, and the hot stove will slowly begin to heat up as the winter begins.

The next few months will be even more hectic than usual. Not only will we be discussing potential free agent and trade targets, as we try to project how the Yankees might look to improve their squad for next season, we will also be following along the CBA negotiations, as Rob Manfred and the league owners attempt to engage in some ol’ fashioned robber baron-esque union busting. In order to prepare for these discussions — and to give you some good, hard data to cite when arguing with your friends — let’s take a look at where the Yankees’ payroll stands today.

Note: All guaranteed contracts are taken from Spotrac, and all arbitration estimates are taken from MLB Trade Rumors; as always, given how much more focus the Yankees seem to place on luxury tax values than how much money is actually paid out in a given year, all numbers are based on their luxury tax hit.

Guaranteed Money

The Yankees currently have seven players, including three-fifths of the starting rotation, under contract for the 2027 season, with a combined luxury tax hit of $212.4 million — more than the entire payrolls of 19 teams. Despite the large number, though, the Yankees are actually in fairly decent shape financially, at least in terms of the old rules: only three players (Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Max Fried) are under contract past the 2028 season, and the players who provide the least value relative to their salary (Giancarlo Stanton and Ryan McMahon) have only one year remaining. Furthermore, because of Cody Bellinger’s opt-out (represented by the asterisks), his luxury tax hit for this upcoming season is substantially higher than it will be for the final four years of the deal—assuming he does not opt out, that is—due to the way Major League Baseball calculates these things.

As a rather fun aside, with Aaron Hicks and DJ LeMahieu finally off the books, the Yankees enter this winter with no dead money for the first time in years; it is presently unclear just how long this will remain true. Indeed, Stanton and McMahon stand out as potential options for dead money in 2027 should the Yankees decide that they’d rather eat their contracts than guarantee them roster spots.

Arbitration-Eligible

MLB Trade Rumors projects the Yankees to have nine players eligible for arbitration this winter, with projected salaries ranging from $2.3 to $11 million. While we don’t yet know for sure whether the Yankees will actually tender contracts to all nine of these players — Fernando Cruz’s elbow injury and Luis Gil’s struggles (as well as his own injury history) make them likely candidates for release, while the high salaries relative to their health/production of Anthony Volpe, José Caballero, Heliot Ramos, and Clarke Schmidt might put them in at least mild jeopardy as well.

Pre-Arbitration

Technically, with no CBA signed, we do not know what the minimum salary will be for the 2027 season. We do have an upper and lower bound, though. Major League Baseball’s proposal from June pitched a minimum salary of $1 million, and MLBPA’s proposal from May advocated for a $1.5 million minimum. As such, although we don’t have concrete figures, we can nonetheless get a ballpark estimate as to how much the pre-arbitration salaries will cost.

As with the arbitration-eligible players, there’s a good chance that not everybody on this list will be tendered a contract. Punchless backup catcher Ali Sánchez and relievers Bradley Hanner, Kervin Castro, and Brendan Beck are just four players off the top of my head who should definitely not sign a one-year lease in the New York metropolitan area, at least until the non-tender deadline has passed.

Final Tally

As things currently stand, the Yankees 2027 luxury tax payroll sits somewhere between $265.1 and $273.1 million, or roughly $40 to $50 million below the Yankees’ 2026 payroll of $313 million (note: I removed player benefits and other non-payroll factors from the luxury tax equation, for the sake of consistency). While it remains to be seen how the CBA shakes out, and what the exact financial rules will be going forward, this gives us a rough estimate as to how much money the Yankees currently have at their disposal even if they aren’t looking to add to increase the team payroll in 2027.

And you’re saying, “Who?”

The Cubs signed Tyler Austin last December. He had played parts of four seasons for the Yankees, Twins, Giants and Brewers from 2016-19, then played six years for Yokohama in NPB, batting .293/.377/.568 with 85 home runs in 403 games.

The idea was for him to be a right-handed hitting backup first baseman to Michael Busch. And it might have worked: Austin hit .253/.345/.539 with 18 home runs in 217 MLB at-bats vs. LHP in those four seasons.

Unfortunately, Austin suffered some sort of knee injury and was ruled out before he played a single game for the team:

Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced that Austin underwent right knee surgery on Tuesday and would be out “months” as he recovers. The 34-year-old Austin required a right patellar tendon debridement procedure after his knee “didn’t respond well” in early camp workouts.

And “months” turned into “the entire season.” The Cubs paid Austin $1.2 million for this lost season.

Austin turned 35 during his season on the 60-day injured list. He did at least get to meet some of his teammates did participate in at least one team workout, as shown at the top of this post. And he also posed for photos in a Cubs uniform on Photo Day last Feb. 17:

Those, however, are likely the only times you will ever see Tyler Austin in a Cubs uniform. The team can certainly find a healthier, younger option to be a backup first baseman for Busch for 2027. I’m writing about him only because I decided I’d write an article about all 17 Cubs who are free agents this offseason or have a team or player option, and he is certainly one of those players. (See this StoryStream for the rest of the articles.)

Thanks, Tyler, and we wish you well.

The Yankees have agreed on a three-year contract extension with pitching coach Matt Blake, per multiple reports.

Blake, 41, was hired as the team's pitching coach ahead of the 2020 MLB season.

He will now remain in that role until at least the conclusion of the 2029 MLB season.

Since 2020, the Yankees trail just the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers in with a stellar 3.69 team ERA, are tied with the Seattle Mariners for third best in team WHIP (1.21), and rank fifth-best in K/9 (9.18).

While Blake has been able to rely on acquired stars in his pitching staff, such as Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Max Fried, he has also played a significant role in the farm system graduates both making the jump to and establishing themselves in the big leagues.

This includes most notably presumptive 2026 AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler, but also Will Warren, who continues to improve as a underappreciated back-end rotation arm. And while Luis Gil has had two straight seasons riddled with injuries and inconsistency, he did earn the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year award as a standout starter.

Additionally, Nestor Cortes Jr. bloomed under Blake. "Nasty Nestor" broke out in his third stint as a Yankee as a 26-year-old on a minor-league contract, earning a promotion to become a fan favorite starting pitcher in 2021, then earning All-Star honors and an eighth place finish in AL Cy Young voting during a career-best 2022 campaign.

Most recently, in 2026, Blake oversaw the transformation of Paul Blackburn from run-of-the-mill starting pitcher into lethal multi-inning bullpen arm, the emergence of southpaw Brent Headrick as a premier setup man, and the successful post-trade-deadline free agent additions of John Schreiber and Michael Fulmer to aid a thin bullpen at a crucial time in the regular season.

 

Of course kids love baseball. Everybody loves baseball. But the lost games, canceled World Series and changed landscape left behind by the 1994–95 players’ strike remind us that the business side of the game we love is anything but child’s play.

More than 30 years later, Major League Baseball is once again approaching a potential work stoppage that could leave the Colorado Rockies with less than a month to conduct much of their offseason business.

MLB’s free-agent market opens shortly after the World Series, with players permitted to sign with new teams five days after the final out. But the current collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, and another lockout is widely anticipated.

Meanwhile, MLB’s owners have proposed a salary floor and cap that could eventually change how much teams are required to spend.

For Colorado, that raises a few questions: How much money might the Rockies have to spend, how quickly should they act, and where should they invest it?

A salary floor? Not so fast

Under MLB’s initial proposal, teams would operate between a $171.2 million salary floor and a $245.3 million cap in 2027.

Before looking ahead, it helps to understand where Colorado stood financially in 2026. The Rockies’ estimated 2026 cash payroll was $120 million, with a competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll of $138 million, ranking them 21st in MLB by cash payroll.

2026 MLB payroll comparison

Rank	Team	Cash payroll	CBT payroll
1	Los Angeles Dodgers	$412M	$422M
2	New York Mets	$358M	$358M
20	Cincinnati Reds	$129M	$154M
21	Colorado Rockies	$120M	$138M
22	Minnesota Twins	$111M	$134M
29	Cleveland Guardians	$87M	$103M
30	Miami Marlins	$76M	$86M

Source: FanGraphs RosterResource. Estimated 2026 payroll figures, rounded to the nearest million. Rankings based on cash payroll.

Looking ahead to 2027, Colorado’s projected CBT payroll is in the neighborhood of $110 million, potentially leaving the Rockies roughly $60 million below the proposed minimum.

That’s not exactly pocket change.

Now, an offseason where the Rockies suddenly have to spend another $60 million would be tremendously entertaining. I’d happily spend November dreaming up ways to convince Tarik Skubal to pitch at Coors Field on a one-year deal.

Unfortunately, that’s probably not where these negotiations are headed.

For starters, CBT payroll isn’t the same as cash payroll. It uses the average annual value of contracts and includes arbitration estimates, benefits and other obligations. The precise gap also depends on how those costs are calculated under a new agreement.

More importantly, the MLB Players Association has opposed the owners’ proposed salary cap, and neither the cap nor the accompanying salary floor has been agreed upon.

As Andy McCullough reported for The Athletic, the proposal includes a negotiated transition period, with one executive suggesting implementation could take years.

So the proposed floor might mean bupkis for Colorado’s immediate offseason. There’s no established requirement for the Rockies to add $60 million to their 2027 payroll.

But another deadline is approaching much faster.

November could get busy

Predicting what Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes might do is difficult. Their first offseason in Colorado was already abbreviated by their late arrival, and a potential lockout could make their second one unusual for entirely different reasons.

But they were hardly inactive. Despite limited time, the new front office made substantial changes to the roster, including bringing in several players on major-league contracts.

They’ve already shown they’re willing to make moves.

As McCullough reported, executives and agents anticipate an accelerated free-agent market ahead of a potential December 1 lockout. Players and teams alike could look to complete deals before a work stoppage disrupts normal business. The middle tier of free agency could be particularly active.

For Colorado, that’s an opportunity worth taking seriously.

The Rockies should enter November with their targets identified, evaluations completed and financial parameters established. Acting quickly doesn’t mean signing players out of desperation. It means being prepared to move when an opportunity presents itself.

The answer is pitching

Looking back at the Rockies’ free-agent activity under previous front offices offers a pretty good blueprint for what not to do.

The results have ranged from expensive disasters like Kris Bryant’s seven-year, $182 million contract to bargain finds like C.J. Cron, who initially joined Colorado on a minor-league deal.

And the Rockies haven’t been unwilling to spend money on pitching. Ahead of the 2018 season, they committed a combined $106 million to relievers Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee.

But when it came to adding outside starting pitching, Colorado’s approach was considerably more conservative.

Rockies MLB free-agent starting pitcher signings from outside the organization

Offseasons	Starting pitchers signed to MLB contracts
2018–19 through 2024–25	Chad Kuhl, Dakota Hudson
2025–26	Michael Lorenzen, José Quintana, Tomoyuki Sugano

Outside starting pitchers signed to major-league free-agent contracts. Excludes minor-league deals, extensions, re-signings, trades and waiver claims.

Seven offseasons. Two outside starters.

DePodesta and Byrnes signed three in their first winter alone. Not every move worked, but the change in approach is hard to miss.

And with Colorado’s rotation finishing 2026 with a 6.28 ERA, the worst in baseball, that approach needs to continue.

So, what comes next?

The Rockies could use a right-handed corner outfielder and a defense-first backup catcher. But the biggest need is obvious.

Pitching. And lots of it.

That doesn’t mean bringing back every familiar veteran or signing another pitcher because he was good three years ago.

Colorado needs new arms, different arms, and as many legitimate options as possible.

Beyond traditional major-league free agency, that means exploring the Japanese and Korean markets, pursuing trades and aggressively adding minor-league pitching depth.

The minor-league market could be particularly interesting with a lockout looming. Minor leaguers have a separate CBA extending through December 2027, meaning players outside the major-league bargaining unit can generally continue developing even if MLB shuts down.

And the opportunities for organizational improvement could extend beyond the field.

Ryan Spilborghs raised an interesting possibility on a recent podcast: If other organizations make staffing cuts during a lockout, Colorado could have an opportunity to bring in experienced talent to the analytics department.

The Rockies are already working to strengthen their scouting and analytical departments. They reportedly added veteran scout Steve Barningham, and the organization is actively recruiting a senior or lead baseball analytics analyst.

For those interested in applying, applications are open through October 30.

The Rockies have the money. They have obvious needs. And whether it’s acquiring players before a shutdown or improving the organization during one, they have opportunities to make progress.

They don’t have to win the offseason. But they have every reason to be involved in it.

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Before the Yankees were the Babe Ruth-led behemoth that took the baseball world by storm in the ‘20s, they were the laughingstock of the American League. Between 1913, their last year as the Highlanders, and 1914, their first as the Yankees, the team went 107-196. Things got bad enough that there were rumors the team might flip to the upstart Federal League, a nascent third major league that threatened the AL and NL.

Determined not to lose his New York franchise, AL president Ban Johnson worked behind the scenes during the 1914-15 offseason to strengthen the team’s roster, making it more attractive for a prospective new ownership group. He did so by encouraging the rest of the league’s teams to sell the Yankees useful players at a reasonable price. The first team to heed his call was the Tigers, who sold New York two players: a first-base prospect named Wally Pipp and a 27-year-old outfielder named Hugh High.

Hugh Jenkins High
Born: October 24, 1887 (Pottstown, PA)
Died: November 16, 1962 (St. Louis, MO)
Yankees Tenure: 1915-18

High grew up in a family of 13 kids, three of whom would eventually play in the big leagues. The Highs were an itinerant bunch, living first in Pennsylvania, then New Jersey, then Illinois, and finally St. Louis in Hugh’s youth. He played semi-pro ball while serving as a plumber’s apprentice, making the jump to pro ball only after completing his obligation. He played well enough at Class-B Hartford of the Connecticut State League to draw the attention of several teams, including the Giants, who purchased his contract for $2,500 but ended up selling him back to Hartford for the same amount before he was able to join New York. High kept performing the next season and was once again a sought-after commodity, with the Tigers securing his services for the 1913 season.

High joined a crowded outfield picture in Detroit, with future Hall of Famers Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford as well as Bobby Veach, who’d finish a 14-year career with 2,063 hits and a .310 lifetime average. Still, he cracked the roster as a reserve outfielder and saw an expanded role early on with Cobb holding out due to a contract dispute and Veach on the shelf with an ankle injury. High played well enough that, when the roster returned to full strength, both Cobb and Crawford were briefly moved to the infield in separate stints to keep the rookie in the everyday lineup. While his raw stats never wowed, High was valued for his situational hitting and defense and developed a close relationship with the team’s manager, another future Hall of Famer named Hughie Jennings.

Which baseball player used the fewest distinct letters in his first & last names? I nominate Hugh High, at five. pic.twitter.com/CV4hQOsLR6

— John Thorn (@thorn_john) September 26, 2015

High improved in his second campaign, getting on base at a .363 clip while continuing to impress with his glove. The following offseason, the Tigers sold the talented youngster to New York to assuage Johnson’s concerns. His first season in pinstripes would be a career year. Finally given a full-time opportunity, he played in a career-high 119 games and showed some more pop, notching 27 extra-base hits after hitting 15 in the previous two years combined. High also swiped 22 bags, showcasing an all-around skill set that was an asset to a Yankees team still searching for an identity.

Hugh High NY Yankee- Thompson Original Photo pic.twitter.com/CERE4CTk6H

— The Skimmers (@TheSkimmers) June 13, 2017

Prior to the start of the 1916 campaign, the Yankees continued to beef up their roster, headlined by the addition of future Hall of Famer Frank “Home Run” Baker. They put up their first winning season since their days as the Highlanders with High firmly entrenched in left, continuing to get on base consistently and play fundamentally sound baseball. He dealt with an ankle injury for much of the year, though, a harbinger for what was ahead.

The next offseason, High dealt with blood poisoning from an infected blister in his foot that set him back in spring training. He missed more time during the year as he dealt with boils on his neck. He ended up getting replaced in the lineup in September and would never regain his starting role. After the ‘17 season, the Yankees shopped High extensively, nearly reaching deals with the Senators, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Cardinals. They finally reached an accord with the Athletics a few weeks into the season but High refused to report to his new club. The Yankees suspended the outfielder and he walked away from the game, taking a job at a Maryland shipyard rather than shipping off to Philadelphia.

It was the start of an odyssey for High. The Red Sox tried again to trade for him; when High demanded back pay for the time he was suspended, the Yankees balked and he instead returned to the shipyard. The league reinstated High in 1919, but when the Yankees attempted to option him to the minors, he once again chose his job in Maryland. In May of that year, he finally accepted his sale, this time to the Vernon Tigers of the Double-A Pacific Coast League. High spent five seasons there, followed by another with Double-A Columbus and a final season with the International League’s Reading Keystones at the age of 37. Throughout this seven-year wilderness period, he showcased the consistent bat and slick fielding which had made him a valuable big leaguer in his youth.

After his baseball career, High returned to St. Louis, resuming the plumbing career he had put on hold in his early 20s. He died on November 16, 1962 at the age of 75. While never a star, Hugh High was a ballplayer’s ballplayer who helped shore up the Yankees franchise in its early, uncertain days and, through his long journey in minor-league baseball, demonstrated a love of the game few can match.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

There was a lot of anticipation and intrigue when it came to AJ Smith-Shawver and his return from Tommy John Surgery for the Atlanta Braves in 2026. Considering how much flux the backend of Atlanta’s rotation went through in the previous season, there was a clear opportunity for anybody who wanted to grab onto that role.

AJ Smith-Shawver got that opportunity once he eventually returned in July. So how did that go for him? It’s time to find out.

How Acquired

The Braves selected Smith-Shawver with the 217th overall pick as their seventh-round draft choice in 2021. He skyrocketed through the system in 2023, speedrunning three minor league levels and eventually making his debut in June. Despite, or perhaps because of, his rapid ascent, Smith-Shawver has yet to throw over 45 big league innings in any given season.

What were the expectations?

One of the reasons why Smith-Shawver was unable to clear that 50-inning threshold was because he had Tommy John Surgery in June of 2025, which meant that he’d have to wait a full calendar year before even getting ready to make his return to the mound. As such, the hope was that Smith-Shawver could simply get healthy and hopefully improve upon a 2025 campaign where he showed some flashes of brilliance while still having the typical rollercoaster experience that most rookies and young pitchers experience upon breaking through to the big leagues.

We all know that recovery from this type of thing isn’t exactly a linear or easy process — just ask Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach about the elbow issues that they’ve both been dealing with for the past couple of seasons. Still, it wasn’t crazy to hope that AJ Smith-Shawver could eventually make a bounce back and become a valuable part of Atlanta’s rotation.

Performance-wise, Smith-Shawver had an 88/115/115 line in 74 career innings before the 2026 season. His 2023 and 2024 were comparatively rougher, but 2025 looked much better at 92/96/105. It was hard to know exactly what to expect given the long layoff and rehab from major surgery, but ZiPS saw him as an above-average-but-very-short-stint starter (about four innings a start, but 1.1 WAR in 80 innings) as its point estimate — basically a slight improvement over his small-sample 2025.

2026 Results

Smith-Shawver made about a month’s worth of official rehab starts, but once July 29 rolled around, he returned to the big league roster for a day as the Braves called him up as the 27th man for a doubleheader against the Mets. He turned in the sort of start that had folks across Braves Country clamoring for him to stick around — even though he was always bound to return to Gwinnett due to the 27th-man rule. Despite a somewhat underwhelming line of just 4 1/3 innings pitched with a 4/2 K/BB ratio, Shawver’s velocity (on his four-seamer, especially his four-seamer) looked impressive, his stuff was lively and he had also added a sinker and a cutter to his arsenal — giving him a very interesting tool box of six pitches to work with.

Smith-Shawver eventually got his chance to join the rotation for real once he got called up ahead of a start on August 19 against the Twins and while his stuff looked lively as usual, this time he was once again unable to make it through the fifth inning in an efficient manner. In fact, Smith-Shawver only ended up making two appearances where he pitched at least five complete innings — and one of those appearances was in long relief after Reynaldo López made (what turned out to be) his final start of the season.

That five-inning relief appearance on September 14 was Smith-Shawver’s first apperance out of the ‘pen and he proceeded to make three more appearances in relief during the final month of the season and eventually made an appearance in the NLDS. That NLDS appearance didn’t go well, as he wound up giving up a two-run dinger to Kyle Tucker and a solo shot to Max Muncy (both in the same inning) that basically gave the Dodgers enough breathing room to take the game on home.

Ultimately, Smith-Shawver finished with a 6.61 ERA (157 ERA-), a 6.00 FIP (145 FIP-), and a 5.17 xFIP (123 xFIP-) with a drop in strikeout rate (18.8 percent compared to 21.9 percent in 2025) and an increase in walk rate (from 10.9 percent in 2025 to 11.1 percent in 2026). He didn’t qualify for a bunch of the usual MLB Percentile Rankings that Baseball Savant provides but if he did, a lot of his categories would’ve been in the blue instead of the red. Needless to say, Smith-Shawver didn’t exactly hit the ground running upon his return to the bigs from Tommy John surgery, and “earned” -0.2 fWAR for his efforts.

What went right?

Well, his velocity is still good after returning from Tommy John surgery and that’s always a positive. His four-seam velocity was back at 96 mph and his sinker was clocked at an average of 95.1 mph. Again, the stuff that he had on display during his 2026 debut against the Mets was encouraging to see and it sure seemed like AJSS had something to really build upon as a starter based on that first impression back.

Also, if that five-inning relief appearance against the Cubs qualified as a start then this would’ve been Smith-Shawver’s best “start” of the season. The Braves were definitely in need of having any starter who could give them innings while only giving up around a couple of runs and the Braves gladly would’ve taken that had it been a start.

Meanwhile, his most encouraging appearance as a reliever came on September 20 against the Astros, which is when he faced seven batters over two innings and only gave up a hit while striking out four batters. It was a very solid appearance during the divisional-clinching win for the Braves in Houston and it was the type of outing that makes you think “Hey, maybe there’s something here with this guy as a reliever.” The Braves certainly thought so, but it was kind of a mixed bag in the end — his next relief outing was pretty bad, and he gave up a homer while striking out three of the five batters he faced in his final tune-up. And then, well, the one in the playoffs didn’t go very wellk.

His splitter was a pretty effective pitch, as he racked up a whiff rate of 31.3 percent and a Put Away percentage of 15.8 percent and 16 of his 27 strikeouts on the season came from that pitch alone. It was clearly his best pitch and it’s clearly the one that he should throw a bit more of going forward.

What went wrong?

AJ Smith-Shawver was just unable to get really deep into games as a starter. In every one of his six long appearances this season, he walked at least two batters and walked at least three in four of those appearances as well. If he walked a batter then that guy usually came around to score. It was either that or his propensity to give up the long ball. While his four-seamer only had a .209 Batting Average against it (along with a .216 xBA), whenever hitters did catch up to his heater, they usually didn’t make a mistake with it. He gave up seven homers all season and four of them were against his heater. Opposing batters slugged .512 against his four-seamer (with an xSLG of .500). He was unable to get a lot of whiffs with it, either. When the pitch you lean on that much is getting hit that hard, it’s difficult to have a lot of success.

Smith-Shawver’s start on September 8 against the Rays was the end of the road (at least in 2026) as a starter and it was basically a single-game example of everything that’s been ailing Smith-Shawver at the big league level right now. He was charged with five hits, he walked two batters, two of those five hits were dingers (against a Rays team that, while excellent on offense, didn’t hit for a ton of power in 2026) and he only lasted 3 1/3 innings. He was unable to get deep into a game, it was his shortest start of the season, and Smith-Shawver found himself heading to the clubhouse after having a largely inefficient night on the mound.

Overall, Smith-Shawver found it hard to rack up strikeouts, he walked a lot of batters, he got hit decently-hard when batters did catch up with his stuff and he got barreled-up on a semi-regular basis. Fundamentally, he posted an xFIP- north of 100 in four of his five starts (well north of 100 in three) — or five of six if you include the five-inning relief appearance. It wasn’t a case of being unlucky or anything, he just wasn’t doing the fundamental business of striking guys out and not walking them well at all. That’s not a recipe for success as a starter, which explains why the Braves decided that the best place for Smith-Shawver going forward towards the Postseason was the bullpen. They just couldn’t afford to have him try to figure it out as a starter while they were holding on to the lead in the NL East and against playoff-caliber lineups in the Postseason.

One additional cruel twist of fate: above, it was listed that his xFIP was below average in every longer-stint outing but one. That one where it wasn’t? It was his worst start by WPA of the year, as, despite the better pitching quality, the Nationals dumped four runs on him and the defense thanks to walks and seeing-eye singles in the second, and then added a homer in the third. Welp.

2027 Outlook

AJ Smith-Shawver will be 24 heading into next season and when you combine his young age with the lack of mileage (when it comes to innings, at least) on his arm, it sure feels like he could get another shot at starting for the Braves once Spring Training rolls around (whenever that may be). He’s got the velocity on his four-seamer that can play but he still has yet to develop it into a truly effective pitch. His splitter is there but everything else still needs a bit of work, as evidenced by the high walk rate and the lack of strikeouts that he was able to get on a consistent basis. Something kind of amusing is that Smith-Shawver didn’t directly struggle with either pitch shape or command — he largely threw his four-seamer and splitter to the same spots over and over. But, those spots just weren’t very good in practice, largely because his splitter tended to miss the zone on the low armside corner. If he fixes that and has that splitter actually fall in for a strike, and things get a lot more annoying for batters, but it was easy to wait him out in 2026.

Early projections aren’t quite so sanguine about Smith-Shawver as they were before he made his return. He’s now targeted as a below-average bulk guy or swingman, even falling short of the “assume everyone is a fourth starter until they show otherwise” heuristic. He’s got some work to do, basically.

Assuming the Braves don’t add to their rotation outside of the organization heading into next season, Smith-Shawver should get an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster as a starter. Maybe with a full (and potentially extended) offseason to figure things out, Smith-Shawver can come back and finally really get rolling with his career. Again, he’s young and it still feels like he’s a bit of a rookie since he hasn’t really had an extended stint in the bigs quite yet. Maybe we’ll see him get that chance and embrace it in 2027. We’ll see what happens.