Let’s see if we can get this straight.
The New York Mets, the National League’s greatest failure at 28-35 and going nowhere even after winning six of their last eight games, still have no interest in shopping Freddy Peralta or anyone else President of baseball operations David Stearns still has faith they can make a postseason run.
The Detroit Tigers, easily the American League’s biggest bust at 26-38, are telling teams that two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is off limits for now, and after winning four consecutive games against the first-place Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners, they may even decide to keep him in hopes of a miraculous comeback.
The San Francisco Giants just scored 30 runs in consecutive games against the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers – their biggest output since 1944 – and tell you that a sell-off isn’t even whispered about in their front office.
The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins, two more teams going nowhere, say they aren’t ready to sell considering the AL absolutely stinks, and they are somehow still alive in the wild-card race.
Considering this delusional wave of optimism, they’ll soon have you believing that Rob Manfred and Bruce Meyer are about to enjoy a golf outing and a new collective bargaining agreement finalized over a candlelight dinner.
Seven weeks remain before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, and you have no further to look than the historic collapses by the Tigers and Mets last year, along with the miraculous run by the Cleveland Guardians, to know that wild and crazy things can happen in a pennant race.
Still, let’s have a little dose of reality, can we?
These teams aren’t going anywhere.
So why not at least pick up the phone, start engaging in preliminary trade talks, and see if there’s a potential match, you know, before the deadline?
Would that really be so nuts?
“I understand there are times to do value trades," longtime general manager Doug Melvin and now special assistant for the Brewers, tells USA TODAY Sports, “but sometimes, you’ve just got to go get guys and not worry about that. That’s what holds up some of trade deadline deals. Everyone is worrying about value trades instead of just getting the guys they need.
“Teams are just so afraid to engage early."
Maybe it’s time to take a page out of Melvin’s playbook, who played a vital role in making the Brewers who they are today.
Melvin pulled off one of the greatest deals in Brewers’ history, forever changing the franchise’s destiny in 2008, with a move that will live forever in MLB folklore.
Melvin didn’t worry about hoarding his top prospects. He didn’t freak out over the possibility that one of his prospects could become a future All-Star. He wasn’t panicking about how his move would be perceived by the media.
He just pulled the trigger on July 7, 2008, more than three weeks before the trade deadline, and traded four of his top prospects for impending free agent CC Sabathia of Cleveland.
It changed the course of history.
Sabathia, who was 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA, was acquired for the Brewers’ No. 1 prospect Matt LaPorta, their first-round draft pick a year earlier, along with left-handed pitcher Zach Jackson, right-hander Rob Bryson, and a player to be named later.
The only real hold-up, says Melvin, who began telephoning Cleveland a month earlier to express interest, was with GM Mark Shapiro and assistant Chris Antonetti trying to decide between outfield prospect Michel Brantley and prized infield prospect Taylor Greene as part of the package.
“They were torn, they wanted to see them a little more," Melvin said. “Both were really talented. So I finally said, 'Mark, how about we do this: If we don’t get to the playoffs, we pick the player. If we go to the playoffs, you get the choice and pick the player you want.'"
That player to be named turned out to be Brantley, who became a five-time All-Star and played 15 years in the big leagues.
“We were pretty clear defining what the market was and who we thought would be involved," said then-Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, now president of baseball operations for the Toronto Blue Jays. “If you look back at the history of the deals, I did, I was definitely an early mover."
It was a deal the two teams liked at the time and would do all over again 18 years later.
“We liked this deal a lot," Shapiro said. “Matt LaPorta was the key guy, but getting Brantley made it an incredible trade."
Just like that, the Brewers’ destiny was dramatically altered.
“It showed our players and our fans," Melvin said, “that we're committed to winning, and winning now."
Sabathia, who cried after getting the news, was given the option to spend a few days with his family and join the Brewers late. He declined. He showed up two days later, walked into an elated Brewers clubhouse and beat the Colorado Rockies in his first game, 7-3, pitching six innings and allowing two earned runs in front of a sold-out crowd. Five days later, he pitched a complete game and homered in a 3-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. He threw another complete game and struck out 10 in his next start against the Giants. And in the next, a three-hit shutout against the St. Louis Cardinals.
He become one of the greatest trade deadline acquisitions in baseball history.
Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.64 ERA with seven complete games in 17 starts. He ignored the advice of his agent and pitched on short rest in his last three starts of the season, throwing 335 pitches the final nine days. And he clinched the Brewers’ first playoff berth since 1982 on the final day of the season, a 3-1, four-hit complete game victory over the Cubs.
A legend was born.
“That was the jolt that we needed," Melvin said. “It meant so much to our players. When you see the players busting their balls and working so hard, the front office has to work harder themselves and see what we can do for them.’’
It also turned out to be a stroke of genius acquiring him early. The Brewers got an extra five starts out of Sabathia, who went 4-1 with a 1.82 in July, pitching three complete games and racking up 39.2 innings.
Sabathia departed after the season for a record seven-year, $161 million contract with the New York Yankees, winning the World Series the next year in 2009, but he left an indelible mark on the Brewers and was inducted into their Wall of Honor last month.
“That jump-started the entire organization," Melvin said.
The Brewers became the ultimate role model for small-market teams, drawing 3 million fans in three of four seasons, beginning with Sabathia’s arrival. They started winning and never stopped, coming within two games of the World Series in 2011, and have now produced nine consecutive winning seasons with seven playoffs berths and five division titles.
It was the single-most impactful trade in Brewers history.
And it was one of the biggest “what-if" misses in Los Angeles Dodgers history.
The Dodgers also were in on Sabathia. Ned Colletti, the former Dodgers GM, believed they were on the verge of reaching a potential deal with Cleveland that would have left the Brewers empty-handed.
The Dodgers offered catcher Carlos Santana, a future All-Star and Gold Glove first baseman; infielder Andy LaRoche; pitcher James McDonald; infielder Ivan DeJesus; and a fifth prospect. Cleveland was sending Sabathia, third baseman Casey Blake and utility man James Carroll to Los Angeles.
Colletti remembers getting a stamp of approval from manager Joe Torre that afternoon (“he was all fired up"), but when he approached owner Frank McCourt, he didn’t want to assume the $10 million in salary while also parting with prospects.
“A few weeks later, we still got Manny Ramirez with Boston paying his salary. And then we got [Greg] Maddux in August. Can you imagine if we had all three of those guys when we played Philly in the postseason?
“If we had gotten those guys, we might have had the guns to beat those guys."
The Dodgers had to wait another dozen years before they won the World Series.
Skubal could be the greatest pitcher to hit the trade block since Sabathia. Just like Sabathia, Skubal will be a rental too, set for the free agent market after the season where he’s expected to command $400 million. And just like Sabathia, Skubal is expected to make that kind of impact, yielding a 41-15 record and 2.41 ERA since 2024.
So, who has the guts like Melvin to pull off a deal for Skubal?
The Yankees? Dodgers? Padres? Cubs? Rays? How about those Brewers again?
“If I’m the Tigers," Melvin said, “I’d think about putting Skubal out there right now."
Skubal, who had arthroscopic elbow surgery five weeks ago, first must prove he is healthy. He’s pitching in a minor league rehab start Sunday, and if all goes well, could return to the Tigers rotation next weekend against Cleveland.
Rival executives believe that Skubal will need to make at least three starts to convince teams he’s healthy.
Perhaps even more important, the Tigers also have to convince themselves they have no chance to get back in the playoff race before moving him.
The trouble is that with expanded playoffs, and the AL being appallingly mediocre, every team believes they still have a chance. The Royals, Angels, Giants and Rockies were the only teams facing a deficit larger than six games entering Saturday.
And there are a bunch of clubs that share the same philosophy waiting until nearly the last possible moment to make deals.
“I think there’s a much more definitive valuation in players," Shapiro says. “Teams have the ability to precisely measure the expected return.
“Back then, we didn’t have the firm capability to determine the impact in value. A lot of it was intuitive. Now, you’re more cautious and more hesitant to move before understanding what the full market value might be.’’
The expanded postseason also decreases the value of making major moves to simply make the playoffs. If they are going to give up a significant part of their future, they want a legitimate chance to win a division title, and not a wild-card berth, to secure a first-round bye.
“Your World Series odds are probably going to be correlated to your odds of getting a bye,” Jed Hoyer, Cubs president of baseball operations, said in his Friday gathering with reporters. “Getting a bye is such a big deal. It’s effectively not only winning one round but also, by getting a bye. In theory, you’re playing an opponent that should be in a lesser state. … The bye is that important.
“If you want to look at it differently, I’d say a lot of the aggressiveness is based on the ability to get a bye.”
Then again, it could be a cop-out. The Dodgers didn’t have a first-round bye last season and still won their second consecutive postseason World Series championship. The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks didn’t have byes as wild-card teams in 2023 and were playing one another in the World Series.
When the opportunity presents itself, you better be ready to pounce.
“When I was in San Francisco with Sabes [Giants GM Brian Sabean]," Colletti said, “we were always making rounds of calls in the middle of May, just in case. If you know who you want, there’s no reason to wait.
“I remember learning from my first boss, Dallas Green, and his philosophy: If you are sure who you want, and your team has a chance, don’t wait. These opportunities don’t come around too often.
“You better go for it."
Yes, just like 10 years ago, when Theo Epstein, the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, traded for Yankees All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman. The price was steep. It cost them their top prospect, infielder Gleyber Torres, with Epstein left answering why he was willing to sacrifice the Cubs’ future for the ultimate prize.
“If not now," Epstein said, “when?"
Three months later, Epstein was standing on stage hoisting the World Series trophy, the Cubs’ first championship in 108 years.
“There are times," Melvin says, “that you’ve just got to step up."
It’s beginning to be that time.
Around the basepaths
– If a team acquires New York Mets ace Freddy Peralta at the trade deadline and wants to keep him, they better be ready to pay up. Peralta will be seeking a free agent contract similar to Max Fried’s eight-year, $218 million deal, according to those familiar with Peralta’s expectations.
– MLB executives believe there will be a slow trickle of free agent signings before the CBA expires Dec. 1 but that most agents will prefer to wait to see if a lot more small- and mid-market teams will be involved in free agency when a CBA is finalized.
– Boston Red Sox closer Aroldis Chapman is expected to join his eighth different team, and potentially be in the postseason with his sixth different team. He is the top reliever available on every contender’s target list, converting 28 consecutive saves dating back to last season, one shy of his career record.
– St. Louis Cardinals manager Oli Marmol, a candidate for the NL Manager of the Year award, has accepted Dave Roberts’ invitation to be on the National League coaching staff at the All-Star Game. Marmol and Phillies manager Don Mattingly will be the non-Dodger coaches with Roberts.
Minnesota Twins manager Derek Shelton will be on Blue Jays manager John Schneider’s All-Star staff.
– Just in case you wondered why Yankees star Aaron Judge is considered one of the greatest teammates in the game, all you have to know is his response when asked why he didn’t go on the injured list to have his ribs checked out on April 26 when he felt the injury instead of waiting until June.
“Big G [Giancarlo Stanton] is hurt," Judge said. “Max Fried’s hurt. We had a lot of guys banged up. You’ve got to be out there. That’s what they’re paying me to do, to go out there and play."
The Yankees entered Saturday with a .419 winning percentage when Judge doesn’t start since 2022, averaging 3.8 runs a game. They have a .592 winning percentage, averaging five runs a game, when he starts.
– Meanwhile, Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte, who the D-backs tried to trade during the winter, continues to frustrate segments of the organization by opting to take days off. He sat last week when Shohei Ohtani the Los Angeles Dodgers pitched against the Diamondbacks, and then played the next day and hit a walk-off homer.
– There’s no hiding that the Chicago Cubs are desperate for another starter, with their rotation yielding a 6.35 ERA since their 10-game winning streak that ended May 10.
Their starting rotation:
- Colin Rea: 4.59 ERA.
- Shota Imanaga: 4.74 ERA.
- Edward Cabrera: 4.99 ERA.
- Jameson Taillon: 5.13 ERA.
- Matthew Boyd: 6.00 ERA.
Still, Hoyer made it clear this week that it’s absurd for them to think about mortgaging the future for Skubal, Peralta or someone else unless they dramatically start playing better, losing 18 of their last 24 games.
“The trade deadline is the furthest thing from my mind right now …” Hoyer said. “Sitting here talking about the deadline, given how we played, seems like the wrong thing to talk about. We have to play better, and we have to put ourselves in a position to do that.’’
The Cubs, who had two 10-game winning streaks, went 37 consecutive days without losing a single game at Wrigley Field. It took them 28 days to win another game at Wrigley this week.
– The Athletics have shown interest in Royals starter Kris Bubic to help out their struggling rotation.
– The free-falling San Diego Padres don’t need Skubal as much as they need someone who can hit.
They are batting .216, which not only is the lowest in MLB, but the lowest in franchise history after 60 games.
Thy also are last in on-base percentage (.291), last in OPS (.651) and second-to-last in slugging (.360).
They are the only team in baseball not to have a single regular with an OPS+ of at least 100, meaning they don’t have even one average hitter on the team.
“The game’s evolving, man," All-Star third baseman Manny Machado, who’s having his worst season, .175 with a .617 OPS, told reporters. “It’s definitely getting harder to play. It’s definitely getting more strategic. I just wish we can get the analytics out of the way. I think there’s too many stats out there. Too many stats, way too many numbers."
– Pitchers are echoing the complaints of Twins pitcher Bailey Ober, who filed a formal complaint with MLB about the quality of baseballs, believing it was the cause of his recent pitching injury, according to the Minnesota Star-Tribune.
– While there has been speculation that San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello is so frustrated in his new job and could return to the college ranks after the season, he insists that he’s still happy he took the job, paying him $3.5 million a year, a record salary for first-year managers.
– The Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals have been two of the biggest surprises in baseball the first half, but please, they’re not about to trade prospects at the deadline to go all-in.
The Cardinals, in fact, are expected to trade reliever JoJo Romero and starter Dustin May at the trade deadline, providing they slip further back in the wild-card race.
A year from now, it may be a completely different story.
– Former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti conveyed a story to Hall of Famer CC Sabathia at the World Baseball Classic that had him laughing.
Colletti, who was the assistant GM with the San Francisco Giants at the time, drove with Giants GM Brian Sabean to Vallejo, California, Sabathia’s hometown, in between games of a doubleheader at Candlestick Park to watch Sabathia pitch as a high school player before the 1998 draft.
“He hit a towering home run to center field," Colletti said. “He was like a man playing with kids. As soon as he hit the homer, we got into the car and went back to Candlestick. Sabes says, 'He’s not falling to us.' And went home."
Well, it turns out they actually did, and missed out.
The Giants, with the 19th pick overall, drafted third baseman Anthony Torcato of Woodland, Hills, California. Cleveland drafted Sabathia with the 20th pick.
Torcato’s big-league career lasted just 47 at-bats. Sabathia pitched 19 seasons, won 251 games, and went to the Hall of Fame.
– The Boston Red Sox are an absolute mess and are 10-21 at Fenway Park. They are on pace to go 26-55 at home. The last time they played a full season and won fewer than 30 home games was in 1932 when they finished the season with a 43-111 record.
The Red Sox, who slashed their scouting department to add more analytics, may want to take a hard look at the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.
They have the most pro scouts in MLB and still have a robust analytic department.
– The Cleveland Guardians are the only team that has started only five pitchers this season, while 12 teams have already used 10 or more starters, led by the Houston Astros with 13.
– The Phillies are 29-0 when leading after eight innings this year and are an MLB-best 14-5 in one-run games.
Take a bow, closer Jhoan Duran, who’s 15-for-15 in save opportunities, retiring 21 of the last 23 batters he’s faced.
Follow Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tarik Skubal trade will require major MLB deadline bravery amid rumors
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