Category: Baseball

There’s no real answer here. Coverage of Game 2 will also start quite soon. Have at it if you want, or just wait around for actual game-related stuff.

I will say that even though it was super-awesome, Austin Riley’s three-run go-ahead blast didn’t actually register that high on cWPA. Even among the current Braves run from 2018-on, it was barely within the top 25 (23rd) in cWPA, worth about four percent of title likelihood. It wasn’t even that big of a deal for Riley, as he’s had seven bigger hits. His biggest was the single in Game 4 of the World Series that brought the Braves to within a run and put the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position, but the Braves actually failed to score more there and needed the later back-to-back homers to pull ahead. Nor was it his biggest homer, as that goes to the tiebreaking shot in Game 1 of the 2020 NLCS.

But, this is about how you feel about Riley’s season — before yesterday’s eighth inning, and now.

There is no question that can be asked that would remove the pain from yesterday’s loss, no answer that can satisfactorily resolve the frustration from the blown lead in a crucial moment. Still, we can discuss the strategy, and, if not quite come to terms with what happened, at least develop a fuller understanding of it.

Jhoan Duran was tasked with taking the ball with a slim lead in the late game, which was hardly unusual. The fact that it was the seventh inning when he was given the ball, and that he was then asked to handle the eighth, was much stranger. We know how it ended up working out. But how much blame is to be assigned to the decision to deploy him early, and for a highly atypical multi-inning appearance? Was the bad location on the fateful pitch the result of tiredness, or something that might’ve happened even if he was deployed in more typical fashion? So on and so forth.

What did you think of yesterday’s decision to deploy Duran for multiple innings?

It’s the first game of a postseason series.

The first batter of the home team smashes a home run. One out later, the third home team hitter also homers, and that home team is on its way to a blowout shutout .

Oh, you think I’m talking about last night’s disaster, the 8-0 Cubs loss to the Padres. While the above are absolutely facts in evidence from Tuesday’s game, they also apply to a different Cubs/Padres postseason game, the first game of the 1984 NLCS at Wrigley Field. Bob Dernier led off the first inning with a home run for the Cubs, and one out later Gary Matthews also homered, two of the five home runs the Cubs smacked that afternoon on their way to a 13-0 crushing of the Padres.

And you know what happened in that series. Anyway.

Remember what I wrote about Matthew Boyd in the preview to this game?

Boyd allowed three runs in five innings to the Padres June 30 at Wrigley Field, including home runs by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Hold those two guys down and this could be a good game for Boyd.

Welp. Those are the exact guys who homered in the first inning off Boyd, and no, this was not a good game for the Cubs left-hander.

Oh, I also wrote this:

Boyd has a 1.66 ERA in seven postseason games (six starts) covering 21.2 innings. He has never allowed a postseason home run.

So much for that.

I want to show you the home run by Tatis [VIDEO].

Pete Crow-Armstrong made a valiant effort to catch that ball, but came up just short. It would have been a fantastic catch, to be sure. But that’s not why I wanted to show you that play. This is why:

What on Earth were they thinking there? A first-pitch changeup? Right in the sweet spot, basically? smh

Everyone pretty much could have gone home right then, because the Cubs offense, the best in MLB during the regular season, did not bother to show up for this game. They were no-hit through six innings by Michael King, until Nico Hoerner broke up any idea of a postseason no-hitter with one out in the seventh. I’ll get back to that.

Machado then hit his home run to make it 2-0, and he also doubled in a run in the third off Boyd.

After the Cubs had erased a Padres baserunner in the fourth on a double play, Xander Bogaerts homered to make it 4-0. You had the sense at this point that the game was over, right? During the regular season:

Cubs record when allowing three or more home runs: 12-14
Cubs record in all other games: 77-59

So, yeah.

Javier Assad relieved Boyd to begin the fifth and things didn’t go any better. After a leadoff single by Luis Campusano, Assad retired the next two Padres. Good, right? Yes, but then he walked Machado and Ty France singled to load the bases.

Ryan Rolison entered the game to face the left-handed hitting Jackson Merrill. Welp. That didn’t work, Merrill singled in two runs and it was 6-0. The seventh Padres run scored on a passed ball charged to Carson Kelly.

If you’re getting the feeling that absolutely nothing the Cubs did in this game worked properly, you have summed up Game 1 in one sentence. Nevertheless, I shall continue.

As noted, King entered the seventh inning having not allowed the Cubs a hit. They’d had four baserunners up to that point. Only two of those four got past first base:

• Seiya Suzuki reached second base on an error leading off the second
• Pete Crow-Armstrong walked with two out in the third. He stole second. So, yay?
• Suzuki walked with one out in the fourth
• Michael Busch walked with two out in the sixth

A good offensive display, this was not.

Ian Happ flied out to lead off the seventh.

That brought up Nico [VIDEO].

Machado misplayed the ball after fielding it, but he wouldn’t have thrown out Hoerner anyway, and that was the Cubs’ first hit. In case you were wondering (Bluesky link):

The Padres put across their eighth and final run against Aaron Civale in the bottom of the seventh. Tatis beat out an infield hit and stole second, and when Kelly’s throw went into center field, Tatis didn’t stop running and scored [VIDEO].

The Cubs did mount a bit of a rally in the ninth against Joe Musgrove, who was a somewhat surprising addition to the Padres postseason roster. He hadn’t pitched in a MLB game since Oct. 2, 2024, a wild card game against the Braves.

With one out, Suzuki singled, the Cubs’ second hit. Happ walked and Hoerner singled to load the bases. Down 8-0, this wasn’t likely to amount to much and it did not, when Pedro Ramirez popped up and pinch-hitter Michael Conforto was called out on strikes to end the game.

This was just an old-fashioned beatdown. You know, kind of like what the Cubs did to the Padres in that game 42 years ago. A couple of game facts from BCB’s JohnW53:

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman both struck out three times.

PCA did it 15 times in the regular season, most of any Cub. Seiya Suzuki did it 13 times; Ian Happ, 12; Michael Busch, eight; Michael Conforto, six; and Bregman, just four.

Six others combined to do it 12 times, for a team total of 70 times.
…..
PCA did it twice in the post-season last year. He is the first Cub to do it three times in career post-season games. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell and Dansby Swanson each did it twice.

One more not-so-fun fact about this game: It was the 12th time the Cubs had been shut out in 132 total postseason games, and the most runs they’d ever allowed in a postseason shutout loss. Previous record: Six, twice: Game 3 of the 2016 NLCS and Game 1 of the 2016 World Series. Those two series worked out okay.

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame remarks [VIDEO].

Counsell said that was a good pitch to Tatis in the first inning. Respectfully, I disagree.

I came across this fact during the day Tuesday and it does not bode well for the Cubs:

Nevertheless, the games still have to be played and, hopefully, the absent Cubs offense will show up Wednesday. Kevin Gausman, who has extensive postseason experience and who was very good last year for the Blue Jays in October, will start for the Cubs. Nick Pivetta goes for the Padres. Game time is again scheduled for 9 p.m. CT (first pitch around 9:10) and the game will again be on Peacock and NBC Sports Network.

It’s win or go home. Go Cubs.

The Red Sox are up against the wall. Cam Schlittler, once again, shoved against the Red Sox in game one, throwing 117 pitches in a 6.1-inning shutout before handing it over to the bullpen. Paul Blackburn and John Schreiber shut the door, keeping the Red Sox off the scoreboard to win game one, 9-0. Coming into this season, the winner of game one has won 15 of 16 Wild Card series since playoff expansion. The only exception is the Yankees over the Red Sox last season.

If the Red Sox want to keep their season alive, it comes down to Sonny Gray. Let’s think about it in innings. The Red Sox used five relievers on Tuesday night: Erik Miller, Greg Weissert, Alec Gamboa, Wyatt Olds, and Brayan Bello.

Erik Miller was excellent immediately after being acquired, but his September, as well as his career-long control issues, should reduce him to only low-leverage spots. Greg Weissert can potentially provide an inning, but he’s not an arm to trust on back-to-back days in a sticky spot. Alec Gamboa and Wyatt Olds were both late additions to the roster, and neither looked particularly up to the job in game one, while Brayan Bello has never pitched two days in a row in the major leagues.

That leaves Ranger Suarez, Garrett Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, Aroldis Chapman, and Jake Bennett as the unused pitchers, alongside today’s starter Sonny Gray.

Ranger Suarez is set to start game three. Garrett Crochet is a complete unknown. He hasn’t pitched since April, and he was ineffective when he was on the mound. If he’s healthy, I’d expect him to be able to get outs, but who knows where he’s truly at health-wise. Garrett Whitlock has been one of the best relievers in baseball, but his longest outing of the season is 1.1 innings. He’s only thrown more than 30 pitches once this season, and it came in an outing in which he walked two hitters. Extending him for more than one inning could be a tricky proposition. And then there’s Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, like Whitlock, has been fantastic, but hasn’t got more than three outs in a game this season. If you put those three arms together and assign two innings to Crochet, that’s four innings. Of course, given the stakes, they could extend Whitlock or Chapman, but their effectiveness after three outs is a relative mystery. If you want to give Jake Bennett an inning or two, you could, but he doesn’t seem like an arm they’d go to unless they were trailing, and there’s no need to eat innings in a do-or-die game.

The offense was, at least in terms of scoring, the worst in baseball in September. Roman Anthony was lost in the middle of game one, and the rest of the lineup couldn’t touch Schlittler. If I were a betting man, I wouldn’t put money on them putting a lot of runs on the board against Max Fried. If they want a chance to win the game, they’ll need to keep the Yankees off the board, and with the lack of quality innings in the bullpen, that means getting length out of Sonny Gray.

Gray has been the Red Sox best starter by ERA this season. He’s gone at least six innings in 22 of his 29 starts. In two starts against the Yankees, he’s allowed three earned runs over 13.2 innings pitched with 12 strikeouts and 3 walks. Despite a 14-year career, Gray has only thrown in six postseason games. In those six games, he has a 3.26 ERA, but has only pitched more than five innings once (an 8-inning shoutout for the Athletics against the Tigers in 2013). For the Red Sox to win today, they need Sonny Gray to turn in one of the best postseason performances of his career.

Fortunately, Chad Tracy can unload the clip in game two, because in playoff baseball terms, game three might as well be in six months. The Red Sox need to play every card they have to keep the season alive, but Sonny Gray keeping the Yankees off the scoreboard for as long as possible is the key.

Happy Wednesday, everyone. Except, maybe, for the Detroit Tigers. News is emerging that Zack Gelof of the A’s is suing the Tigers for lost potential earnings after he missed a month of play from an injury he sustained in Comerica Park’s outfield. We’ll have more on that below, but it’s not exactly how the Tigers would like to start their offseason, certainly.

We’re also into the Wild Card games now, so news is going to be all postseason all the time. We’ll have more of that in the coming days as the final postseason picture takes shape.

For now, though, let’s get right into the news.

Detroit Tigers News

• Well this is… interesting.

• Sam Blum has more information on the lawsuit, in which Gelof cites that his injury at Comerica Park “will adversely impact his future earnings.” The lawsuit suggests that the exposed piece of metal that Gelof ran into was not something that he could have anticipated encountering. “Not in a professional stadium, where everyone else involved are making 10s of millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars off the performance of these athletes,” his lawyer said. Gelof missed a month of play following the injury.
• AJ Hinch shared his feelings about Kevin McGonigle’s incredible rookie season.

MLB News

• Checking in on the first Wild Card game of the postseason and how the Braves got their win.
• Who the staff of FanGraphs thinks will win the World Series.
• The Sports Illustrated staff have also made their predictions.
• The Athletic staff have their opinions about everything as well. ($)
• Assessing team defense for all the remaining postseason clubs.
• Aaron Judge won’t be on the Yankees’ Wild Card roster.
• Some fundamental truths that will impact the MLB postseason.
• Looking at the rosters for all the Wild Card teams.
• A fatal flaw on each postseason team.
• Dan Wilson being first from the Mariners was about more than one bad season.
• The Brewers are going to be cautious about Joey Ortiz ahead of the NLDS.
• A Grant Brisbee ranking of all the teams in the postseason. ($)
• Why does it seem like so many major league players have known each other since they were kids? ($)
• The Pope himself sent a letter to the White Sox ahead of the Postseason.

• Liam Hendriks has announced his retirement.

• I’m sorry, this guy is just delightful.

• Gotta love a little postseason hype video, even if the Tigers are out of things now.

Thirty-Seven Years Ago

The Blue Jays clinched first place in the AL East by defeating the Orioles 4-3. A dramatic three-run rally in the eighth inning erased a 3-1 deficit and sealed the win.

Here was the starting lineup:

Lloyd Moseby CF

Mookie Wilson LF

Fred McGriff 1B

George Bell DH

Ernie Whitt C

Kelly Gruber 3B

Nelson Liriano 2B

Junior Felix RF

Jimmy Key started but was limited to four innings, surrendering eight hits and three earned runs, with no walks and six strikeouts. Frank Wills provided four shutout innings of relief, giving up just one hit. Tom Henke closed out the ninth for his 20th save.

The eighth inning proved decisive. Nelson Liriano worked a walk against Dave Johnson, prompting a pitching change. Kevin Hickey entered and walked pinch-hitter Manny Lee, with Rob Ducey pinch-running. Mark Williamson then replaced Hickey. Lloyd Moseby sacrificed both runners into scoring position. Mookie Wilson singled in a run, Fred McGriff drove home the tying run, and George Bell hit a sacrifice fly to give Toronto the lead.

Tom Henke made quick work of the ninth, striking out two to secure the victory.

The Blue Jays ultimately fell to the Athletics in five games in the ALCS.

That roster featured some impressive performances:

Fred McGriff, at 25, posted a .269/.399/.525 line with 36 home runs. Critics pointed to his 92 RBIs, suggesting that with fewer walks (he drew 119), he could have reached 100 RBIs.

Tony Fernandez endured a down year, finishing at .257/.291/.389.

Kelly Gruber contributed a .290/.328/.448 line with 18 home runs.

George Bell batted .297/.330/.458, adding 18 home runs and 104 RBIs.

Dave Stieb went 17-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 33 starts, though he completed just three games.

Jimmy Key finished 13-14 with a 3.88 ERA.

John Cerutti posted an 11-11 record and a 3.07 ERA.

Mike Flanagan went 8-10 with a 3.93 ERA.

Todd Stottlemyre finished 7-7 with a 3.88 ERA.

Tom Henke recorded a 1.92 ERA and 20 saves.

Duane Ward notched a 3.77 ERA and 15 saves.

Eleven Years Ago

The Blue Jays clinched their first playoff berth since 1993 by winning the opening game of a doubleheader against the Orioles, securing the AL East crown.

I skipped a full recap in favor of celebrating:

I’m not doing a recap…you guys saw it. Marcus Stroman was unhittable. Our offence was great. And the Orioles helped out by not being able to field.

Some quick points:

8 innings of 1-run ball from Marcus Stroman…how amazing has he been? He’s gone through so much; he deserves this.

We scored 15 runs on 18 hits and 10 walks.

Ryan Goins was 5 for 5 with a double and a beauty of a bunt single.

Revere, Donaldson, and Pillar each had 2 hits.

Encarnacion hit his 37th home run, getting RBI 107 and 108.

Bautista and Smoak hit home runs in the top of the 9th.

The GameThread for game two has to go up in just a few minutes, so I’m going to end it here, and the new GameThread will go up.

Give a JoD to all the players, to Gibby and to Alex. And let’s take one each for ourselves.

We dropped the second game of the doubleheader (played in the rain), as Gibby rested the regulars. Here was our lineup:

Pompey CF

Pennington LF

Carrera RF

Colabello DH

Hague 1B

Thole C

Kawasaki 3B

Barney 2B

Diaz SS

Some of those names barely register from their time with the Jays.

R.A. Dickey tossed five scoreless innings (allowing only two hits and no walks), but the bullpen surrendered eight runs.

After a thrilling ALDS win, the Jays dropped the first two games but rebounded to take the next three (Jose Bautista starred, driving in five runs with a 0.41 WPA in the series). However, Toronto fell to the Royals in six games in the ALCS.

A few birthdays to note today, though none warrant a full post:

• Trent Thornton turns 33 today. Acquired from the Astros for Aledmys Diaz, he pitched in 108 games (36 starts, including some as an opener) over five seasons with the Jays, compiling a 7-14 record and a 4.77 ERA. He’s spent the last year and a half with the Mariners.
• Hagen Danner turns 28 today. He logged just 0.1 innings for Toronto in 2023 and spent much of this season injured. Here’s hoping he’s healthy next year and can contribute to the bullpen.
• Craig Kusick would have turned 84. He passed away in 2006 at 57. He played 23 games for the Jays in 1979—his final MLB season. Previously, he spent seven years with the Twins. The first baseman finished his career with a .235/.342/.392 line in 496 games.
• Bryan Bullington turns 46. He threw six innings for the Blue Jays in 2009, appearing in parts of five seasons and 26 games overall.
• Curtis Goodwin turns 54. His final two games of a five-year Jays career came in 1999. He played 431 games in the majors, batting .248/.307/.302.
• Brian Moran turns 38. In 2020, he pitched one inning across two games for Toronto. Over three seasons, he logged 11.1 innings—but this guy is a big fan:

Jaylon Thompson covers the reports that Alec Zumwalt is out as Royals hitting coach.

The offense struggled at key points. The Royals got off to a slow start this spring with a 22-37 record entering June. The club posted a .650 OPS in May as the offense couldn’t get into an early season rhythm.

Things started to turn around down the stretch. Rookie catcher Carter Jensen began to ascend behind the plate and Jac Caglianone tapped into his immense power. Both players won the American League Player of the Month award.

Yet, the Royals couldn’t overcome their early strugles. It’s easy to point to down seasons from Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino, among others. The trio dealt with injuries at different times, which zapped their production.

Craig Brown reacts.

What I believe this move signals is that the Royals feel there’s more to come from their offensive performance. I can’t disagree there, but the club would be better served to finding two or three productive bats from outside the org. The Picollo Era has been marked by awarding too many plate appearances to too many sub-mediocre hitters.

Zumwalt has been in the sights for a segment of this fan base for the better part of two seasons. I get it. When a team underperforms—and the Royals have certainly underperformed—there needs to be accountability. Owner John Sherman’s guy is Picollo. Picollo’s guy is Quatraro. So someone on the coaching staff needs to take the fall. Or be reassigned.

Philip Ruo at Royals Keep evaluates Royals hitters the Royals picked up last season, like Isaac Collins.

In one respect, Collins succeeded in solidifying left field. Collins accounted for 78% of the plate appearances from Royals left fielders in 2026. He also provided a noticeable improvement in offensive production with a slash line of .214/.321/.324 with an 84 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR. However, his wRC+ and fWAR rank second-to-last and last among qualified primary left fielders. Collins was brought in for his on-base skills and plate discipline, but he saw a noticeable decline in his xwOBA from .322 in 2025 to .294 in 2026, which places him in the 15th percentile in the majors.

Dominick Williams at the Star has a photo collection of memorable Royals moments from this year.

Ben Rice hits a grand slam in a Game 1 Yankees win over the Red Sox.

The White Sox have their first postseason win in five years, defeating the Astros.

Phillies manager Don Mattingly goes to Jhoan Duran in the seventh and it backfires in a loss to the Braves.

Padres pitcher Michael King takes a no-hitter into the seventh in a win over the Cubs.

Ken Rosenthal wants reseeding after the Wild Card round for the postseason.

Why each playoff team will or won’t win the World Series.

Miami does not plan to trade pitcher Sandy Alcantara this offseason.

The Mariners want to hire an experienced manager.

The Tigers part ways with two coaches.

The Marlins fire hitting coach Pedro Guerrero.

The Twins plan to meaningfully invest in payroll and contend next year.

Athletics infielder Zach Gelof sues the Tigers for an injury he sustained at Comerica Park.

Former Royals pitcher and All-Star reliever Liam Hendriks retires.

17-year-old Mathis Albert becomes the youngest player to ever score for the US Men’s National soccer team.

The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx fall to the New York Liberty in the WNBA playoffs.

The Senate overwhelmingly passes the Protect College Sports Act.

AI actress “Tilly Norwood” glitches and suddenly speaks Chinese in a live TV interview.

The Game of Thrones movie will come out in 2029.

Your song of the day is Goth Babe with Moments/Tides.

After taking the first game of the series in dominant fashion, the Yankees look to take care of business tonight in the Bronx. The Bombers hand the ball to veteran lefty and ace Max Fried. What can Fried do to follow up on Schlittler’s gem in the opener and send Boston home for the winter? Let’s preview Game 2 of this Wild Card Series.

Fried’s body of work was spectacular, but limited in 2026. In 20 starts this season, he posted a 2.80 ERA and a 0.994 WHIP, racking up 104 strikeouts over 112.2 frames while holding opponents to a meager .201 average. In his last two starts of the regular season, Fried dominated Minnesota, going seven strong innings of one-run ball on September 15th, before stumbling slightly against the Rays on September 22nd, when he took a loss after allowing four runs over 6.2 innings.

The 32-year-old Fried squared off with the Red Sox twice during the 2026 regular season. Back on April 22nd, he abandoned his windup mid-game to pitch entirely from the stretch and went eight dominant innings in Boston, striking out nine and giving up only three hits.

Fried’s most recent encounter with the Beantown Boys was on August 29th, when he was coming off the injured list. In that game, he tossed 3.2 frames of one-run ball to help the Yankees to a 9-2 victory. Even though it was last year, we’d also be remiss if we didn’t note that Fried fired 6.1 innings of shutout ball against Boston in the 2025 Wild Card Series opener.

When facing left-handed starters like Fried, the Red Sox usually counter with a lineup heavily anchored by switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Nick Sogard, alongside right-handed bats Willson Contreras, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Trevor Story. With Roman Anthony leaving Game 1 with an injury, we will have to wait and see what the Red Sox do to try and get some offense. Few Red Sox hitters have many at-bats vs. Fried, but Story has gone 5-for-22 with two home runs off Fried.

Boston counters with right-handed Sonny Gray. The former Yankee has put together a great season as a 36-year-old. After logging an 18-5 record over 29 starts with a 2.72 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 149 strikeouts in 169 innings, many Red Sox fans would argue “their guy” should be in the down-ballot Cy Young race. Gray is coming off a masterful performance against the Guardians on September 23rd, firing six scoreless innings while earning his 18th win. Over his last three starts, he has surrendered six earned runs across 18.1 innings. Gray attacks hitters with a heavy dose of four-seam fastballs paired with hard-sweeping sliders and multi-quadrant breaking balls.

Gray had one meh start and one really, really good start against the Yankees in the regular season. His numbers ended up at 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA in two starts. He outlasted the Yankees in the Stadium on June 5th, giving up three runs over 6.1 innings for a 5-3 win, though the Bombers did tally eight hits in that game. He followed that up on June 28th with a big personal performance, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning and recording his 2,000th career strikeout.

However, Gray has not faced this Yankees lineup and arguably faced the Yankees this season when they were at their worst.

Meanwhile, the Yankees’ playoff roster is finally the chess board Brian Cashman has tried to provide Aaron Boone with for years, even if the team is still missing the most important offensive piece on the roster. With a right-hander on the bump to start the game, I expect the Yankees to roll a lefty-heavy lineup out of the starting gate despite Gray’s splits showing he has been just as effective versus lefties as righties.

My bold prediction is that Boone will start two right-handed bats tonight in George Lombard Jr. and Amed Rosario. Rosario is 7-for-24 lifetime vs. Gray, while Ryan McMahon is 1-for-11 — though the contact-oriented Fried has generally preferred to have the more defensively adept McMahon at the hot corner. The good news for the Yankees is Trade Deadline acquisition Luis Garcia Jr. is 4-for-10 with a home run, and Game 1 hero Ben Rice is 3-for-7 with two home runs. Those are good for a 1.200 and 1.841 OPS, respectively. Trent Grisham might not start, but he has also hit Gray well, sitting at a .500 average in 10 at-bats with a home run and a 1.445 OPS of his own. The cherry on top is Spencer Jones is also batting .500 against Gray with a double sprinkled into those three hits. Maybe this is all Small Sample Theatre, but it’s worth considering.

The Red Sox have lefties galore on their staff and, in an elimination game, will have to lay all their cards on the table. If you decide to keep score at home, I would recommend a pencil tonight and be ready for lots of scratches through the lineup card, as each pitching change could very well be met with a counter in the batter’s box.

Game 1 is over; let’s do it all again tonight!

As the Mets enter the offseason, they'll be facing a familiar challenge: put together a team that can get them back to the playoffs for the first time since 2024.

David Stearnsand the front office failed in that regard last offseason, due in part to the drastic changes that were made to the roster and coaching staff. There were other things at play, including long-term injuries to Francisco Lindor and Clay Holmes, some worst-case scenarios playing out, and an over-reliance on bounce backs.

This time around, the Mets will almost certainly have much less turnover, but that doesn't mean the overall result in 2026 wasn't an abject failure.

New York had a 34-31 record after the All-Star break, which was a big improvement after things spun out of control in the first half and led to a trade deadline sell-off.

But the most important developments for the Mets after their dismal start? The emergence of Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing, the impressive return of Christian Scott, the moxie and performance of Zac Thornton, and some good late-season signs from Jonah Tong.

The above should give the Mets confidence that they're in solid shape when it comes to their lineup and a chunk of the starting rotation. They have an emerging young core to complement their more established stars, and potentially have high-upside players coming soon from the upper levels of the minors. But serious help is still needed this winter.

Specifically, the Mets need to add external help at first base, address the DH spot, bolster the bullpen with multiple new arms (including a back end option), and -- most importantly -- find a pitcher who profiles at the very top of the rotation.

In both 2025 and 2026, the Mets were done in, due in large part to not having enough starting pitching depth. And it can be argued that they left themselves short one legitimate starter both times. That can't happen again, so New York should be focused on pairing a new prospective ace with another addition who profiles in the middle or back of the rotation.

About that ace ... it's not difficult to figure out that it should be Tarik Skubal. 

In one of the weakest free agent classes in recent memory, Skubal stands out even more than he ordinarily would.

Fresh off back-to-back Cy Young awards, the 29-year-old Skubal posted a 2.72 ERA (2.51 FIP) and 0.96 WHIP while walking just 1.5 per nine innings and striking out 186 batters in 158.2 innings in 2026.

Skubal's season was briefly interrupted by NanoScope surgery on his pitching elbow that kept him out of action from April 30 through June 13. But he continued to be dominant upon his return. After having a 2.70 ERA (2.11 FIP) over his first seven starts, Skubal had a 2.73 ERA (2.66 FIP) in the 19 starts he made post-surgery, with 10 of them coming after he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline.

During Stearns' end-of-season news conference on Monday at Citi Field, he was asked multiple times about the Mets' offseason plan for adding pitching, but unsurprisingly didn't offer much when asked in a roundabout way about a possible Skubal pursuit.

"I do think it is necessary for us to add to our rotation," Stearns said. "We can do that in a variety of different ways. We've talked about this plenty before -- you'd always love to add to the top of your rotation, any team would love to do that -- over the long term, what we need to do is develop pitchers at the top of our rotation, and I think we are proving we can do that, and we'll continue to do that."

While Stearns refused to make any declarations about the type of pitcher the Mets would go after, it is pointless to read into that.

For one, Skubal is still under contract with the Dodgers, and no executive is going to talk about going after a player who is on another team.

Second, and even more importantly, no exec is going to tip his or her hand entirely and risk wrecking leverage ahead of possible negotiations.

While Stearns (smartly) won't say it, I will: The Mets should make Skubal the centerpiece of their offseason plan, using the resources at their disposal to add one of the most talented pitchers in the sport to slot in front of Nolan McLean.

The Mets' biggest need this offseason is at the top of their rotation, with Skubal a nearly perfect way to fill that need. And Skubal will cost only money, since the midseason trade from Detroit to Los Angeles makes him ineligible for a qualifying offer and the draft pick compensation it would've required from any team that signed him.

When discussing Skubal and the Mets, it's obviously instructive to consider Stearns' philosophy when it comes to signing pitchers to long-term deals. Specifically, he has not shown much interest in signing pitchers in their late-20s or 30s to those kind of pacts -- and that philosophy is generally a valid one.

For every long-term, big-money deal to a pitcher 29 or older that works out (Max Scherzer's seven-year deal with the Nationals looks incredible in retrospect, and the Yankees' deal for Max Fried is aging well), you can point to a whole bunch that didn't or currently aren't (Patrick Corbin, Jacob deGrom, Jordan Zimmermann, Felix Hernandez, Corbin Burnes).

As far as how Stearns has operated in the past, it's fair to throw what he did in Milwaukee out the window given the payroll constraints he was working under.

But except for a serious pursuit of then-25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto ahead of the 2024 season, Stearns' main forays into the free agent starting pitching market with the Mets have been measured:

Sean Manaea: Three years, $75 million
Clay Holmes: Three years, $38 million
Frankie Montas: Two years, $34 million
Luis Severino: One year, $13 million
Griffin Canning: One year, $4.25 million 

Of those signings, Holmes was the biggest success as the Mets turned him back into a starter after he spent years in relief. But that success resulted in Holmes being set to opt out after the second season of his contract, which led to New York trading him at the deadline.

During his time leading the Mets' baseball operations, Stearns has been reluctant to offer deals to starting pitchers (except Yamamoto) that exceed three years. When that is your philosophy, the risk is obviously lower. But sometimes a calculated risk is needed.

When it comes to Skubal, there is risk. In addition to the minor surgery he had this season, Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and had Tommy John surgery in 2017.

Skubal is also likely to receive the biggest deal ever for a starting pitcher when it comes to average annual value. Maybe his age (30 when next season begins) and yearly value of his deal will make the years easier to stomach, but something like $400 million for eight years is easy to imagine.

There's also the looming lockout and new CBA to consider.

While it's difficult to envision the players caving on a hard salary cap, it's fair to believe the new CBA will include stiffer penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax thresholds.

But even after considering all of that, it's still reasonable to conclude that the Mets should go after Skubal with gusto -- that he should be the exception to Stearns' rule, maybe with a slight nudge from owner Steve Cohen.

Things could always go sideways, as they often do with long-term deals for older starting pitchers. But there's no reason to think Skubal won't be exceptional for the first half of any deal he signs, which would also theoretically line up with a World Series window the Mets will hope to be entering.

When you look at Skubal, who combines one of the best arsenals in baseball with perhaps the best command in baseball (and whose metrics look like this), the biggest risk for the Mets would be not going all-in on him.

Meet the Mets

Jefferson Rojas is nearing the majors, but his hopes could be stalled by a potential lockout.

Joel Sherman wrote a guide to the Mets’ offseason, covering the big questions and potential targets.

Freddy Peralta won the American League Pitcher of the Month honor for September, and David Stearns credited Tampa Bay for doing what the Mets were unable to achieve with Peralta.

Around the National League East

The Phillies announced their complete Wild Card series roster.

The Braves beat the Phillies 5-3 in the first game of the Wild Card series. Austin Riley hit a three-run home run off of Phillies closer Jhoan Duran in the eighth inning to seal the victory.

Paul Casella compiled a list of four key takeaways from the first game between the Braves and the Phillies.

Around Major League Baseball

The White Sox beat the Astros 6-3 in the first game of their series and made it look easy.

The Yankees completely dominated the Red Sox 9-0 in the first game of their Wild Card series, with plenty of help from Massachusetts natives Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice.

The Padres bashed their way to a win in a 8-0 beatdown of the Cubs, and Michael King’s seven innings of one-hit baseball sealed the deal for the Padres to take the lead in the Wild Card series.

Britt Ghiroli is dreading this postseason, as the looming lockout could stop games for an indeterminable amount of time.

After years as baseball’s worst hitter, Austin Hedges has been experiencing an offensive renaissance at 34 years old.

John Harper made bold predictions for each postseason series.

The Minor League Baseball award winners were announced Monday evening.

There’s a way each postseason team could eventually go the distance and win the World Series.

Aaron Judge was officially left off the Yankees Wild Card series roster, but he’ll continue his rehab in hopes of being activated for a potential American League Division Series.

Giancarlo Stanton and Garrett Crochet could perform some postseason heroics after being added to their respective teams rosters.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

A Pod of Their Own returned with their 2026 season postmortem.

Linus Lawrence listed the different former Mets playing in this year’s postseason.

Lawrence also wrote a guide to the postseason with reasons why a Mets fan might want to root for each team.

Steve Sypa published the Prospect Report Card for September.

This Date in Mets History

Two different historic Mets defeats occurred 45 years apart on this day.

Payton Tolle had just retired Paul Goldschmidt for the third time on one pitch, running his pitch count to a manageable 83 with two outs in the fifth inning Tuesday, when Chad Tracy decided he’d seen enough.

With Boston trailing by one run and Ben Rice, who doubled in the first inning, due up next, the manager opted to remove his pitcher who had settled into the pitching duel by that point.

And it backfired in horrible fashion for Boston.

Lefty reliever Erik Miller immediately surrendered a long solo homer to center field to Rice — the first of his two against Boston relievers — and it completely changed the tone of the game in Boston’s 9-0 loss to the Yankees in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series at Yankee Stadium.

Boston’s b-tier relievers ultimately surrendered eight runs in 3 1/3 innings.

“Not just the pitch count necessarily, but you’re trailing already, you’re moving through the third time,” Tracy said. “Rice had already hit a double in the gap off of him, and you have a nice lane there for Miller, and obviously he got him. Just felt like it was the time to go.”

This postseason marks Tracy’s first calling the shots and moments like this one Tuesday night are what ultimately can swing series.

Sure, Boston did not score, but being down 1-0 to Cam Schlittler and the Yankees bullpen is a vastly different world than trailing by two entering the seventh.

Tolle allowed four hits over the first nine batters but settled down to retire eight of the next 10 batters and navigated a two-on, no-outs situation in the fifth while trailing 1-0.

He began the sixth by retiring Austin Wells on six pitches and then sitting down Goldschmidt, leaving him certainly with room to possibly navigate six innings if he worked effectively.

Tracy, though, opted for a new look in Miller, ending Tolle’s day after 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball.

“I thought he threw the ball well,” Tracy said. “They did an effective job of grinding the count up as well. He had traffic. They put traffic on him. He was able to navigate his way through that. I think he competed extremely well for the time that he was out there and gave us what he could.

“I think the number being up there in the mid-80s, still trying to get through five, probably higher than what you normally see with Payton, and to be expected in an environment like this. But I thought he competed his butt off.”

Miller, a midseason trade acquisition, struggled to end the regular season and those issues carried over to the postseason when he fired a middle-middle 97-mph heater that Rice hit out to dead center.

Tolle said that as a competitor, he felt he could have gone longer but understood the decision due to the strength of Boston’s bullpen during the regular seaosn.

Boston is now one loss away from a second straight early postseason exit at the Yankees’ hands.

“Wasn’t good enough,” Tolle said. “They had a good plan and I threw a lot of balls … just didn’t feel like I could command the zone, kind of let some at-bats get away from me. A lot of pitches.”

He added about the bullpen: “Those guys picked me up a lot this year.”

It was an exciting afternoon at Truist Park as the Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-3 to take Game 1 of the National League Wild Card. Chris Sale got the start and was brilliant. In 6.1 innings, he recorded nine strikeouts and issued one walk. He was charged with three earned runs. 

The Atlanta offense had some tough breaks and was unable to put together timely hitting until later in the game. However, that changed when a Michael Harris II single and a hit by pitch had two on for Austin Riley. Riley launched a homer to right center field to give the Braves the 5-3 edge. 

The Braves were able to hold on in the top of the ninth and look to sweep the best-of-three series on Wednesday afternoon at Truist Park.

More Braves News:

Walt Weiss spoke with the media postgame and discussed the unpredictability of the Postseason. 

Don’t think the Braves can win the World Series? Here’s why they can.

MLB News:

Three-time All-Star Liam Hendriks announced his retirement on Tuesday. He was a part of 14 big league seasons. 

The Miami Marlins have parted ways with hitting coach Pedro Guerrero.

From the Feed:

Lock in your predictions for the NL Wild Card series.

Happy Wednesday, OTM! If you’re reading this, that means the sun did rise once again after a horrific game one loss to the New York Yankees last night. My question to you today is simple: do you still believe? The offense is putrid, Roman Anthony is hurt again, and the Yankees have Max Fried lined up to start. Signs are bad, but as Payton Tolle said, he hasn’t heard a fat lady sing. I’m sure if he walks around New York City for long enough, he’ll find one, but he probably wouldn’t find one who’s omniscient and only sings in conjunction with the end of a baseball playoff series. If he did, he should bring her to American Idol or something. America’s Got Talent, maybe? I don’t know, I’m just vamping.

Are we going to win tonight? Do we have any chance at pulling this series out? Talk about this and whatever else you want, and as always, be good to one another.

While eight teams battle it out to see who will advance to the Division Series, the Dodgers are among four teams using this time off to prepare for October baseball.

After winning an even 100 games in the regular season, the Dodgers secured a first-round bye and will await the winner of the NL Wild Card matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. While the Dodgers continue to add the finishing touches to their postseason roster, there are some lingering questions as to which players will be a part of the team’s depth chart.

21-year-old outfielder Josue De Paula made his presence known while filling in for the then-injured Shohei Ohtani, slashing .323/.500/.581 across 42 plate appearances before he was sent down to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Sonja Chen of MLB.com believes that both De Paula and utility man Hyeseong Kim can make an impact on the postseason roster, with the former being relegated to pinch-hit opportunities due to his lack of big-league experience in the outfield.

Of course, De Paula is capable of playing the corner outfield, but we only saw him play six innings in left as a Dodger. And given how important defense is in the postseason, I doubt we will see him in the field unless it’s an emergency.

The month of September has given Shohei Ohtani plenty of time to prepare for his third consecutive postseason run with the Dodgers. The Dodgers still have another three days to prepare for the NLDS, and Ohtani is using this time to get his swing in the right place, per Chen.

“Everything is feeling great physically,” general manager Brandon Gomes said on a Zoom call with the media on Tuesday. “The swings, once he came back, overall were in a good place. And using these five days to continue to get reps and feeling good into this series is really important. But feels like he’s in a great spot.”

Freddie Freeman had his power zapped in the second half of the regular season, hitting just one home run while posting a slugging percentage of .339. Freeman dealt with patellar tendonitis in his right knee, but entering the NLDS, he said that he’s feeling a lot better, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.

“I truly feel good right now, physically,” Freeman said on Tuesday, during a video conference with reporters ahead of the Dodgers’ first pre-National League Division Series bye week workout. “So it’s on me now to figure out the mechanics of the swing in the next five days. And I have all the confidence in myself that I will figure that out by [Game 1 on] Saturday.”

Happy Wednesday, everyone! The postseason is officially here and Wild Card games are underway. While we wait to see how the final postseason picture develops, we’ve got loads of little news tidbits, including deep dives into how all the teams are shaping up, and how all the different MLB experts predict things going as we head towards the World Series.

Plenty to get into so we know which storylines to keep an eye on this October, so let’s just dive right in.

• Michael Baumann looks at the first Wild Card game to be completed this postseason, and how the Braves got their win.
• Paul Casella breaks down the Phillies-Braves game in detail.
• Jay Jaffe assesses what team defense looks like for all the remaining postseason clubs.
• Karl Rasmussen looks into what really went on to lead to Dan Wilson being fired as the Mariners manager.
• Grant Brisbee ranks all the teams in the postseason. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• The White Sox really do have friends in high places.

• JP Hoornstra has more details on that letter from the Pope.
• The staff of FanGraphs do their best to figure out who they think will win the World Series.
• The Sports Illustrated staff have likewise made their own predictions.
• The Athletic couldn’t be left out of the postseason predictions. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Tom Verducci looks at some truths that will impact the MLB postseason.
• The Brewers are going to be cautious about Joey Ortiz ahead of the NLDS. (AP)
• Stephen J. Nesbitt looks at how hopeful all the fanbases are about their team’s World Series chances. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• I’ve seen a lot of weird lawsuits…

• Sam Blum has more information on the Gelof lawsuit. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Bryan Hoch confirms what we already suspected: Aaron Judge won’t be on the Wild Card roster for the Yankees.
• Karl Rasmussen looks at the rosters for all the Wild Card teams.
• Ryan Phillips offers a fatal flaw for all the postseason-eligible teams.
• The Athletic staff explains why it seems like major league baseball players have all known each other since they were kids. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Liam Hendriks has announced his retirement.

And tomorrow will be a better day than today, Buster. Make it so.