Category: Baseball

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It's a tough day to be a pitcher, with tons of wind, heavy workloads, and bad matchups. It's a bump to offensive MLB player props, and I'm looking to fade some arms today.

Anthony Kay's leash is always a question, and getting to five punchouts is tough on 85 pitches. Luis Castillo's stuff has been declining for years, and a matchup with the Dodgers isn't helping his comeback. Finally, the Twins are overusing Taj Bradley, and he's coming off a 109-pitch outing in his last start.

These are my favorite pitcher strikeout and pitcher props for Tuesday, July 28.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player	Pick	Odds
Anthony Kay	Under 4.5 strikeouts	+100
Luis Castillo	Under 4.5 strikeouts	+103
Taj Bradley	Under 17.5 outs	+130

Strikeout prop: Anthony Kay Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)

Anthony Kay looks like he might be slowing down in his first MLB season since 2023. His last five outings have lasted 79, 83, 92, 48, and 73 pitches, and over that stretch, he's cleared this number just once with 17 strikeouts across 22 innings.

Kay likely needs to reach 18 outs to get to five punchouts, and that is something he's done only once over his last 10 starts. The matchup against the New York Yankees always brings some risk, as New York has been a Top-3 strikeout offense all season, but 16-mph winds blowing out to right field aren't going to help Kay stay on the mound.

The Yankees also chased him after just four innings in their last meeting in June, when Kay finished with only two strikeouts. The stuff can play, but the inconsistency and leash remain the biggest concerns.

Covers projections have Kay at 4.31 strikeouts, making the break-even price around -130.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, YES

Strikeout prop: Luis Castillo Under 4.5 strikeouts (+103)

Luis Castillo is coming off a 101-pitch game where he went seven innings but still managed only three strikeouts. It was the sixth straight start for the right-hander to go Under this total. His K% is down from last year, marking the third straight season his K% has dropped. His four-seam velocity has also been on the decline since 2022.

A road date, where his K/9 numbers are worse since 2024, vs. a legit Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, is not a great spot to expect Castillo to get back to his glory years, and why the projections are showing this fair price of -115/-120. 

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Los Angeles, Mariners.TV

Pitcher outs prop: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 outs (+130)

The Minnesota Twins starter is coming off a 109-pitch outing in his last start and sits just 30 innings away from his career high. The Kansas City Royals offense is much weaker without Bobby Witt, but the workload could still impact Taj Bradley's efficiency today.

Minnesota is one of the warmer parks on the slate with temperatures around 88 degrees at first pitch, which only adds to the fatigue angle. Bradley might not get hit hard, but longer innings could become an issue, especially for a pitcher who already struggles with command, with 46 walks over 114 innings.

This is a big price for a pitcher coming off a massive workload with career highs approaching. With Minnesota sitting just a game out of the Wild Card race, the Twins will need to balance winning now with managing Bradley's usage.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Twins.TV, Royals.TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rangers fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The Texas Rangers are currently two games up in an underwhelming American League West race, would should have us talking about the team being buyers in the run up to Monday’s trade deadline.

Instead, however, there’s been more and more talk of late suggesting that the Rangers should be selling at least one key player — shortstop Corey Seager.

Despite MVP-caliber performance when he’s been on the field during his time with the Rangers, Seager’s history of injuries, his slow start to the 2026 season, and his contract — he’s owed $31.5 million per year from 2027-31, with 10/5 rights giving him full no-trade protection when the 2026 season ends — have prompted calls from some corners to move Seager now, in the middle of the pennant race, arguing the team is better without him and his contract than with him.

So we reluctantly offer up this week’s Rangers Reacts Survey question…should the Rangers trade Corey Seager before the trade deadline hits on Monday?

Cast your vote below…

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The somewhat surprising DFA of Jameson Taillon Monday hints that the Cubs are on the cusp of making a trade, or more than one.

For now, Andrew Wantz has taken Taillon’s roster spot. That gives the Cubs an eight-man bullpen for the time being, presuming Javier Assad is going to be held back to start Friday against the Yankees at Wrigley Field.

But that also leaves an open question: Will the Cubs trade for a starter before next Monday’s deadline? Or more than one? And might they also add relief help?

I think we are all pretty much assuming the Cubs will try to add one good starting pitcher. But will they make more deals than that?

Vote in the SB Nation Reacts survey below and I’ll have the final results here later in the week.

The MLB 2026 trade deadline of Monday, August 3 at 4:00 p.m. MDT is fast approaching.

The Colorado Rockies (and, frankly, most teams) were disappointingly quiet on Monday, but it’s a new day, so we can all hope for action.

As the day progresses, we’ll keep this tracker updated with the most pertinent rumors and the biggest deals that come to fruition. We’ll also post a new thread daily through Monday.

As a reminder Colorado Rockies will meet the San Diego Padres tonight at 7:40 pm.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Last year, around the trade deadline, the Royals had a starting pitcher in his mid-30s on an expiring contract. Seth Lugo had a 3.03 ERA through his first 20 starts as the Royals approached the trade deadline under .500. Rather than trade him or extend him a Qualifying Offer at the end of the season, the Royals decided to sign him to a two-year, $46 million deal with a vesting option. Lugo had performance and injury issues after the signing, and has had mixed results this year. The extension looks like an overpay or an outright mistake right now.

Keeping Michael Wacha rather than trading him would be like walking into the same trap for a second year in a row.

Lugo has not been terrible this year. However, for a deal that could pay him up to $63 million, Lugo needs to be better than the 4.36 ERA he has put up. Even worse, he is trending in the wrong direction – his ERA-by-month has been 2.63, 4.59, 6.00, and 4.94. His peripheral numbers do not improve the story – he has an xERA of 5.42 and xFIP of 4.46. His strikeout rate is down for the seventh year in a row, part of that was moving to the rotation from the bullpen. His velocity has also been dropping over time, which is what happens to aging veterans.

Lugo has a vesting option for the third year that will pay him $20 million in 2028 if (a) he throws 335 innings over 2026 and 2027; or (b) he throws 190 innings in 2027. If he fails to reach those marks, the Royals still have a $17 million club option for 2028 with a $3 million buyout. I think you have to go into next year hoping Lugo is good enough to be a fourth starter, but that he does not hit the innings necessary to trigger the vesting option for 2028.

Enter Michael Wacha, he is a 35-year-old starting pitcher, the same as Lugo last year. The Royals have Wacha under control through next season for $14 million plus some incentives and there is a club option for 2028 at $14 million as well with a $1 million buyout. Wacha is having a nice season, which makes him attractive as a trade target in a market with not a lot of quality starting pitching. His value will never be higher. His 3.60 ERA is outperforming all of his peripheral numbers. If you are looking to next season objectively, you would expect him to take a step back from his 2026 level just due to aging and the low strikeout rate. Holding onto a pitcher who is likely to start moving toward the back-end of the rotation, even if he is still worth it on the contract, when you could get real prospects back for him is malpractice. Let’s do a little thought experiment to illustrate.

What if the Royals had traded Seth or let him walk after 2025? Some would say, “look at all the injuries this year and how much they have needed his innings,” but that is the wrong way to think about it. There were a lot of available free agents that would have been comparable to Lugo, including Dustin May, Erick Fedde, Tyler Mahle, Adrian Houser, Zach Littell, and Chris Bassitt. None of these are great options. But they are cheaper than Seth Lugo and capable of producing at last 80 percent of what Lugo has given them. And if you wanted to be more aggressive than that, you could sign a free agent like Michael King, a younger and better pitcher for not much more money per year with one additional guaranteed year. Any assertion that there will not be enough starters if Wacha is not on this team next year is just not true. And that is not even considering options on the trade market. How do you think the Royals ended up with Wacha and Lugo in the first place?

Michael Wacha is a fine pitcher. He is not irreplaceable.

Look at what pitching is available on the free agent market. Tarik Skubal may not be traded as Detroit has climbed back into the AL Central hunt. The Twins say they won’t trade Joe Ryan. The best long-term pitchers on the trade market may be Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano on the Angels, or short-term rentals like Kevin Gausman, not a guy you want starting in a playoff game.

It is conceivable that Wacha is the best starters available going into this final week before the deadline. Cash that chip in and I think someone like the Cubs might give you a Kevin Alcantara plus something or maybe even Jaxon Wiggins or Pedro Ramirez. I am not going to go team by team who might be interested and what they have, that is not the point of this article. There just seems like a lot of value to be gleaned in a trade for a pitcher who is realistically a third or fourth starter at best going forward. The Royals need to stop getting precious about having guys under team control and start flipping them when the value is there.

Eleven years ago today:

The Blue Jays made a blockbuster trade for Troy Tulowitzki. You know you are getting old when things you think happened a few weeks ago actually happened 11 years ago.

The deal sent Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins to Toronto in exchangefor Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman (I wonder what ever happened to him), Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco.

At the time, the trade worked: the Blue Jays finally returned to the playoffs. Tulowitzki batted .250/.313/.414 with 36 home runs in 238 games over three seasons for Toronto. After his release, he signed with the Yankees but managed only 13 at-bats before landing on the injured list, then retired soon after.

One can only wonder how Tulowitzki’s tenure in Toronto would have unfolded without the devastating ankle injury he suffered—also on July 28th, in 2017—when he rolled his ankle slipping off first base. At 32, he still had the potential for a few more strong seasons, possibly building the numbers needed for a Hall of Fame case.

When healthy, he was a joy to watch—his signature sidearm throws from shortstop were things of beauty.

Hawkins appeared in 18 games for the Jays in 2015, posting a 2.76 ERA over 16.1 innings before retiring that offseason. The playoffs were less kind: in three appearances (1.2 innings), he surrendered seven earned runs.

As for the players sent to Colorado:

Reyes finished 2015 with a .259/.291/.368 line for the Rockies. He was suspended at the start of the 2016 season for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy and released at the end of his suspension. Reyes then signed with the Mets, played three unremarkable seasons, and was released after 2018.

Hoffman was considered the key prospect in the deal, but unfortunately never reached his projected potential in Colorado. He spent parts of six seasons with the Rockies before being traded to the Reds, where he spent two years. Now, he has made his way back to the Blue Jays.

Castro made minimal impact with the Rockies, pitching in 24 games over two seasons with a 7.20 ERA. He was traded to the Orioles, then to the Mets after three and a half seasons. Since then, Castro has pitched for the Yankees and White Sox, totaling 11 seasons across seven teams with a 4.24 ERA in 425 games.

Tinoco has bounced between teams in his six-year career, logging time with the Rockies, Marlins (twice), Rangers, and Cubs. In 100 games, he holds a 3.98 ERA.

At the time, the trade was popular: a poll showed 75% approval, 18% neutral, and only 7% opposed.

It’s still difficult to judge the trade’s ultimate value. The Jays needed to move on from Reyes, and this was the available deal. They did make the playoffs twice—would they have done so without Tulo?

To move on from Jose Reyes’ hefty contract, the Jays took on Tulo’s even larger one. But as they say, pennants fly forever.

Seven years ago, the Jays called up Bo Bichetteand traded Marcus Stoman

Bo hit .311/.358/.571, in 46 games that year, his best OBP and Slugging of his career up until now. In seven years with the Jays, he hit .294/.337/.469 with 111 home runs in 748 games. He’s not having a great season with the Mets, but it seems like every Jays beat reporter has suggested the Jays trade for him, which makes little sense to me.

That same day, they traded Marcus Stroman to the Mets for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson. (Woods Richardson, along with Austin Martin, would later be traded to the Twins for José Berríos.)

Looking back, keeping Marcus might have been the better play, but management didn’t expect to re-sign him. Stroman’s big personality may also have played a role in their decision.

Twenty-One years ago, the Jays played a marathon 18-inning game to edge the Angels 2-1.

Pete Walker earned the win with three shutout innings in relief, after Dave Bush started and went 8.1 innings, allowing just one run. The bullpen also featured Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, Vinny Chulk, Jason Frasor, and Miguel Batista.

The walk-off run was scored by Alex Rios, driven in by Orlando Hudson.

That night’s lineup was something special:

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The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the Seattle Mariners to town tonight, and they sit as a heavy -178 moneyline favorite for the series opener at Dodger Stadium. 

Behind Justin Wrobleski, my Mariners vs Dodgers predictions expect L.A. to walk away with a victory here as it faces the vulnerable Luis Castillo. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 28. 

Who will win Mariners vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 (+113)

Justin Wrobleski has been fantastic all season, and he’s dominating since the All-Star break. Across his last two outings, the Los Angeles Dodgers stud owns a 1.38 FIP while limiting opponents to a 35.3% hard-hit rate.

The Seattle Mariners have also struggled immensely against left-handed pitchers this season, compiling an 89 wRC+. That’s compared to a 104 wRC+ vs. right-handed hurlers.

As for Luis Castillo, he has surrendered 2.50 HR/9 over his previous three appearances while posting a 6.17 FIP. 

With Wrobleski limiting a weaker split of Seattle’s offense and Castillo leaking power, Los Angeles has a clear path to creating separation.

I’ll play this to -110.

COVERS INTEL: Castillo has been far less effective away from T-Mobile Park, posting a 5.05 road FIP compared to a 3.60 mark in Seattle. With the veteran also 1.80 HR/9 on the road compared to 0.81 at home, L.A. can capitalize. 

Mariners vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-113)

The Under looks like the better angle tonight. Aside from Seattle’s inconsistencies against lefties, the Mariners are also in poor offensive form, posting an 88 wRC+ over their last six games with just a .118 ISO.

The Dodgers bullpen hasn’t been amazing with a 4.35 xERA over the last week, but Seattle doesn’t pose much of a threat at the dish, even when Wrobleski exits.

As for L.A.’s offense, the Dodgers are right around league average at the moment with a 100 wRC+ across their previous five contests, while their ISO sits at just .176.

I expect them to score enough off Castillo, but the Mariners relief corps is holding its own, compiling a 3.20 FIP over the last two weeks.

With a relatively high total of 9.5, the Under is the best play.

I’ll play this to -130.

Mariners vs Dodgers weather

Mariners vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Mariners +170 | Dodgers -178
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-117) | Dodgers -1.5 (+113)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+108) | Under 9.5 (-113)

Mariners vs Dodgers trend

The Under is 5-1 in Dodgers' last six home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Mariners vs Dodgers and game info

Mariners vs Dodgers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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After lighting up the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night, the Chicago Cubs will look to keep the bats rolling in tonight's rematch.

Chicago is -106 on the moneyline, and my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, July 28, see the Cubs take down the Cardinals once again.

Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: Cubs (-112)

Even with right-hander Colin Rea taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs this evening, I still expect the visitors to come out on top.

I don't care that Rea owns a 5.51 ERA, 5.10 xERA, and 1.35 WHIP over his last three outings. The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been lifeless, posting a 68 wRC+, .265 wOBA, and .578 OPS over its last 12 games.

On the other side, right-hander Michael McGreevy has allowed nearly a 52% hard hit rate and over a 15.5% barrel rate across his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Cubs offense has been on a tear, owning a 128 wRC+, .358 wOBA, and .193 ISO over its last 21 games.

Despite Rea's struggles this season, I think the Cubs offense does enough to carry them to a win.

I'll take the Cubs on the moneyline down to -115.

COVERS INTEL: McGreevy owns a poor Batters-Box pitcher rating and grades out poorly in matchup ISO, hard-contact rate, and strikeout rate. He will also face three elite-rated hitters and another with a strong rating.

Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-121)

With two below-average pitchers on the mound tonight, I have to lean toward the Over, right?

Rea owns a 6.45 ERA, 5.66 xERA, and 1.61 WHIP on the road this season, while allowing an 11.05% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Meanwhile, McGreevy owns a 4.58 expected ERA on the road and has allowed a 41.57% hard hit rate and 9.55% barrel rate.

At least one of these arms is giving up some runs tonight.

While I like the Over 8.5, I wouldn't play it past -125.  

Cubs vs Cardinals weather

Should be another hot one in St. Louis, as the weather will be in the upper 80s, with slight winds blowing in. 

Cubs vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -108 | Cardinals +104
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-156)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+113)

Cubs vs Cardinals trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 away games (+11.80 Units / 51% ROI).

Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info

Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries

No notable injuries to report

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The solution to the Guardians’ offensive problems is, obviously, a journeyman first baseman.

You can view our larger trade deadline piece here as we discuss a wider pool of options the Guardians may consider. To make my position clear, I expect the Guardians to make smaller moves, like trading Bo Naylor and getting a castoff/undervalued reliever. But, in the interest of exploring potential larger moves, we are doing a series looking at some of those bigger names. So far, we have discussed Spencer Steer, Luis Arraez, Shea Langeliers, Taylor Ward, Heliot Ramos and Jo Adell.

The Guardians chose Rhys Hoskins over Ty France when looking for a right-handed hitting first baseman this offseason… and that was a poor choice, so far. Hoskins has a 92 wRC+, .289 xwOBA/.301 wOBA, 32/15 K/BB%, 11 homers and terrible defense. France has a 142 wRC+, .334 xwOBA/.376 wOBA, 23.4/4.8 K/BB% and 16 homers for the San Diego Padres while playing the best first base defense in baseball.

Will the Padres be selling? They are .500 and 1.5 games out of the third wildcard spot. There are no guarantees. They will certainly want an overpay for France, given how he has played, if they trade him, and it’s important to note that he is producing about .040 points better than his xwOBA. Would the Guardians consider trading Manzardo for France and a Padres’ prospect they are interested in? Is there a chance they do a Francisco Mejia-type move and trade Kody Huff for the chance of putting a 142 wRC+ right-handed hitter in the middle of their lineup?

France is putting up career highs in average exit velocity, barrel rate and bat speed. Every metric makes it clear that his season is not a fluke. Rather than double-down on the mistake of trusting in David Fry and choosing Hoskins, the Guardians should correct their error and see if an overpay offer convinces AJ Preller, Padres GM, to do a little threading the needle dealing, selling high on France’s breakout.

Let me know what you think about the idea of acquiring Ty France in the comments below!