Category: Baseball

Two games and two wins, as the Comets and Drillers were the only teams in action on Wednesday.

Player of the Day

Logan Wagner hasn’t had the easiest of transitions to Double-A, which is to be expected given he began the year in rookie ball. However, in this particular game against the Naturals, he was as menacing a hitter as the Drillers had at the plate, with a pair of long shots.

Although Wagner had multiple displays of power this season prior to yesterday’s game, it was only his second multihomer performance of the season, taking his season total to 22 across three separate levels.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

What did Gavin Stone, Edwin Díaz, and Kris Bubic all have in common as the Comets outhit the Space Cowboys on their way to an 8-6 win? All three of them failed to complete a full inning; Stone was removed with two outs in the first after seeing his pitch count rise over 30 in an inning in which he allowed three runs. Díaz’s pitch count climbed over 20 to secure a pair of outs as he allowed multiple walks, and lastly, Kris Bubic came into the game just to finish off the third inning started by Díaz.

The lack of length from several Comets pitchers led to Jackson Ferris coming in early and completing six innings of work as the Comets rode the hot hand all the way to the end of this game. Ferris had the incredibly rare six-inning save, allowing fewer hits (2) and runs (1) than the pitchers for the game’s first three innings combined.

Scoring six of their eight runs in the first two innings, the Comets were aggressive early and didn’t require a lot of slugging to reach this impressive total. Their most important hit came in the second when Ryan Fitzgerald knocked a bases-clearing double to make it 6-4 and give OKC its first lead of the game. James Tibbs III led the team with three runs scored, twice walking and also recording a hit.

Double-A Tulsa

In his final game with the Drillers before joining the big league club on Friday, Josue De Paula showed why he is one of this game’s most promising prospects. The Dodgers’ number one prospect homered as part of a blowout win for the Drillers. It was his 27th long shot of the season and one of four for the Drillers against zero from their opponent.

While the batting average has taken a big hit for Logan Wagner in his second promotion of the season—this one to the Drillers—the third baseman had his best game at this new level, securing a pair of long balls, now with six in 29 games in Double-A.

Alex Walsh, Christian Suarez, and Jacob Kmatz did a fantastic job behind starter Aidan Foeller, each of them delivering two-plus scoreless frames to keep the Naturals from even scoring multiple runs. Foeller ran into some problems early on, allowing four of the Naturals’ five hits in just 2.1 innings, but kept the damage minimal, not that it mattered much with the offense scoring 10.

High-A Great Lakes

There was no game in High-A, as the Loons return to postseason action this Thursday, visiting the Dragons.

Class-A Ontario

The Tower Buzzers also had an off-day, with Game 2 of their Division Series against the Storm coming this Thursday.

Transactions

The Dodgers extended Gavin Stone’s rehab assignment with the Comets.

Wednesday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 8, Sugar Land 6
• NW Arkansas 1, Tulsa 10
• No games scheduled
• No games scheduled

Thursday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Brooks Auger) at Dayton (Kyle McCoy) – Division Series (GL up 1-0)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (TBD) vs. Sugar Land (Brandon McPherson)
• 5:05 p.m. PT: Tulsa (TBD) at NW Arkansas (Grant Grambell)
• 6:05 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) at Lake Elsinore (Kruz Schoolcraft) – Division Series (ONT down 1-0)

It wasn’t a good night for Lehigh Valley, but the news was much better out of Reading, where Gage Wood was backed by four home runs, and the Fightin’ Phils reached the precipice of a spot in the Eastern League playoffs.

Worcester 8, Lehigh Valley 3

The IronPigs fell into an early hole on Wednesday, giving up seven runs in the first four innings. Starting pitcher Brian Keller had a rough game, as he was responsible for all seven of those runs.

The ‘Pigs offense was quiet for most of the game before a too little, too late three-run eighth inning. Gabriel Rincones was one of the few players to have a good game with two hits, including his third home run of the season.

Reading 11, Erie 3

The Fightin’ Phils reduced their magic number for a playoff spot to one by bashing the Erie Seawolves on Wednesday. Gage Wood had another encouraging start, giving up two runs in his five innings to earn his first win of his career.

The Phils backed him with plenty of offense including four home runs. Aroon Escobar, Bryson Ware, Raylin Heredia, and Carson DeMartini all went deep in the game.

The Phils will attempt to clinch a playoff spot on Thursday as their series against the Seawolves continues.

You don’t have to be an expert baseball analyst to see that Jose Ramirez is not his old self.

Last night, Jose’s OPS dipped below .700 for the first time since the Cavaliers still had never won an NBA title. He has a .591 OPS since returning from hamate surgery. Now, prior to surgery, Jose was not his usual self in actual production with a 111 wRC+ but his xwOBA of .354 was in line with his production from 2024-2025. He wasn’t hitting as usual pulled-fly-balls as usual, but everything else looked about normal. And, who knows exactly how long the hamate has been bothering him.

Since returning, Jose continues to have an elite eye at the plate with a 10/9 K/BB% and elite baserunning… but his power is completely gone and he has had some concerning defensive issues (last night’s drop of a pop-up foul, included). The power being gone seems very clearly explained by his hamate issue; his strength has not yet returned and likely will not until next season. The defensive issues… my guess is Jose is carrying his disappointment with him into the field, which, while understandable, does need to improve.

So, what should we think about this?

First of all, if you are looking at Jose and angry because you believe he does not care or is not trying… you can kick rocks. He clearly cares as much as always… probably caring too much is part of his problem.

Second of all, if you believe Jose should be benched, you need to go research the results of hamate surgery for older players and look at how to root for aging faces of the franchise. I swear to you if I hear any of you boo Jose, I will personally curse you so that both sides of your pillow are perpetually uncomfortably moist and warm.

José Ramírez chose us when no other superstar in the history of any Cleveland sport would have done what he did in extending here in 2022. He is Cleveland baseball. He will return to being a great player in 2027 (provided there is a season). Don’t abandon a future hall of famer at the first sign of trouble and make yourself look like an idiot when he shows you he’s not washed in short order.

Should José be batting third right now? No. Should he probably be on the IL? Maybe. Should we support him and believe in him and make excuses for him because he loves us like no other Cleveland athlete ever has. Absolutely.

So, get your act together, Guardians’ fans. Stay in Jose’s corner with the kind of grit and stubbornness he and our city are famous for.

Morning, all!

Sebastian Walcott has been setting the Texas League on fire but has been limited to DH as he recovers from an internal brace procedure performed in February. The plan is for him to return to the field for the playoffs and then play in the Carrinean this winter. League

Nathan Eovaldi is chomping at the bit to return to the Rangers active roster, where he will likely be limited to a relief role in the final stretch.

If the Rangers are going to make the playoffs they need Wyatt Langford to get his poop together.

Yolfran Castillo is knocking at the door of of MLB top prospect lists on the strength of his speed, defense, and maturing plate approach.

Cody Bradford collected his fourth straight loss last night after giving up three runs in four innings.

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It may be a quiet slate across the Majors today, but I've found value in my MLB player props analysis. 

I'm eyeing Max Fried and Zack Wheeler to both deal, while Tristan Peters will stay hot at the dish against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 10. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Max Fried	Under 1.5 earned runs	-104
Zack Wheeler	Under 1.5 earned runs	+104
Tristan Peters	Over 0.5 hits	-138

Max Fried Under 1.5 earned runs (-104)

Max Fried has been dealing for the New York Yankees. He owns a 2.47 xERA over his last two starts, and the left-hander is consistently limiting damage. 

Fried has allowed Under 1.5 earned runs in five consecutive appearances while also pitching deep into games. The 32-year-old gets a favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight, who have one of the worst lineups in baseball. 

Colorado also has a poor 80 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Expect Fried to twirl another gem. 

Play this comfortably up to -130. 

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, Rockies.TV

Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 earned runs (+104)

Zack Wheeler has had his struggles at times this season, but the right-hander has found a rhythm, and he's looked unhittable. Wheeler has posted a solid 2.95 xERA over his last two outings with strong command and minimal home run damage. 

He has surrendered just one earned run in each of his previous two appearances and now faces a Houston Astros lineup today that has just an 84 wRC+ over the previous two weeks. 

Wheeler has also limited opponents to a 22.2% hard-hit rate recently. He's inducing weak contact and pounding the strike zone, making this a perfect spot to keep up his recent dominance. 

Play down to -110. 

• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, SCHN

Tristan Peters Over 0.5 hits (-138)

Tristan Peters has been a consistent offensive force for the Chicago White Sox. The Canadian outfielder is batting .400 over the last week, and he's cashed the Over in hits in four of his previous five contests. 

Peters will face Jared Jones tonight, and while the right-hander has limited damage lately, he's still allowed a 40.7% hard-hit rate across his last two starts.

Jones has been more vulnerable on the road as well, and the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen isn't untouchable, either. 

Peters' recent 55.6% hard-hit rate just adds more fuel to this pick. 

Play up to -150. 

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SportsNet Pittsburgh

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The high-leverage arms in the San Diego Padres bullpen of Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller needed a day to sit and watch a game without having to warmup and without having to come into the game to protect and/or save another one-run game. Jackson Merrill gave them that day with a 4-for-5 performance at the plate with two home runs, a triple and six RBI to lead the Padres to a 9-2 win and series sweep over the Washington Nationals at Petco Park on Thursday.

Merrill made his first impact in game in the bottom of the third inning with San Diego trailing Washington, 2-1 with runners at first and second with two outs. Merrill drove a ball to center field that caused Nationals center fielder Jacob Young to crash into the wall before he could make the catch near the 396 marker. The ball bounced off the wall and rolled back toward the infield as Merrill raced into third base with a two-run triple to give the Padres a 3-2 lead.

The young star struck again in the bottom of the fifth inning with San Diego leading, 5-2. Merrill connected on an opposite field two-run home run to put the Padres up 7-2. He later added a second home run to lead off the bottom of the seventh inning to give San Diego and 8-2 lead. For good measure, Merrill ripped a ball toward first base in the bottom of the eighth inning and Washington first baseman Andres Chaparro was unable to make a play and the ball rolled into right field to give the Padres their final run of the game and a 9-2 lead en route to the win.

Walker Buehler started on the mound for San Diego and turned in his worst start in recent memory. Padres manager Craig Stammen went out to the mound in the third inning with Buehler struggling to locate his pitches after he retired the first six Nationals in order, four of which were strikeouts. Buehler then allowed a leadoff home run to Keibert Ruiz to put Washington up, 1-0. Buehler then allowed a walk to Nasim Nunez, a single to Young and another walk to James Wood to load the bases. The right-hander induced a line drive to right field off the bat of Dylan Crews which should have been caught, but Jase Bowen fell trying to make a play on the ball and it dropped in for an RBI single to put the Nationals ahead 2-0 with the bases still loaded and no outs.

Buehler got Chaparro to pop out for the first out of the top of the third inning, but then Stammen went out to talk to his pitcher. Buehler had apparently convinced Stammen to let him stay in the game and as the manager started to walk away from the mound he was advised that was the team’s second visit to the mound in the inning and he would have to make a pitching change. Kyle Hart had been warming and was able to come into the game and record a strikeout and a fly out to end the threat and the inning, but Buehler’s day was over after 2.1 innings pitched with two runs allowed on three hits with two walks and four strikeouts.

The remainder of the game was handled like a “pitching chaos” bullpen game for San Diego. Hart completed 2.1 innings and was followed by David Morgan who worked 0.1 inning. Yuki Matsui pitched a scoreless sixth inning and Wandy Peralta threw two scoreless innings in the seventh and eighth. Griffin Canning was called on for the top of the ninth inning and he retired the Washington batters in order on 11 pitches to close out the game.

The Padres have an off day today, but will return to action on the road against the San Francisco Giants for a three-game series at Oracle Park starting Friday at 7:15 p.m.

Padres News:

• Randy Vasquez has had an up and down season, but he will now be asked to find stability as a bullpen piece after Nick Pivetta returned to the rotation for San Diego.

• Miguel Andujar has been on the IL for a significant amount of time, but after very few updates on his progress, he has started his rehab and will try to get back to the Padres for the final weeks of the season.

• After designating catcher Blake Hunt for assignment, the Padres released him on Wednesday.

Baseball News:

• The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Chicago Cubs and moved 10 games ahead of their rival in the NL Central standings.

• The Philadelphia Phillies got a comeback win over the Houston Astros.

• The Atlanta Braves got beat 7-2 by the Tampa Bay Rays in Reynaldo Lopez’s return to the rotation.

• The New York Mets won a shootout with the Miami Marlins, 15-14.

• The San Francisco Giants scored six runs in the eighth inning to complete a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals.

• The Arizona Diamondbacks fell out of the third NL Wild Card spot with a 5-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals.

Heading into the season, one of the main questions CJ Abrams had to answer was whether he could sustain his production over a full season. In 2024 and 2025, Abrams was phenomenal before the All-Star break before fading down the stretch. This season, he had his best first half yet, with a .275 average and .862 OPS which made him the starting shortstop in the All-Star game. 

Unlike previous years, Abrams got off to a red hot start in the second half. His performances late in July actually helped him win player of the month. It looked like Abrams was finally delivering a full season of excellence. However, he has fallen on hard times lately.

A lot of Nats players have been impacted by the trade deadline and the season going down the tubes, but none more than Abrams. Since the deadline, Abrams is hitting an abysmal .171 with a .536 OPS. That is just not a month you can be having if you are a star player.

Abrams has obviously had his second half slumps before, which we will get into. However, one thing that makes this run unique is just how much he is striking out. In August, Abrams stuck out over 35% of the time, which is not something I would associate with him. It is actually the most he has struck out in a month his entire MLB career.

When Abrams slumped in the past, we tended to see a lot of weak contact. Right now, he just is not making consistent contact at all. It feels like he is trying to break out of his slump with one swing, when he should be trying to just rack up base hits. 

Watching Abrams come up to the plate is honestly something I dread right now. It is not even because I am mad, it is more out of sadness. Abrams is a player I really like and is so fun to watch when he is on his game. Seeing him strike out in big spots over and over is just a real bummer.

We all know that Abrams is a streaky player, but this month was extreme even by his standards. The 40 wRC+ he posted this August is the second worst since becoming a full time big leaguer and the worst of any second half month. He has had second half struggles in the past, but none of those months were as bad as this one.

When Abrams’ name was in trade rumors at the deadline, I did not want to move him unless there was a godfather offer. That seemed to be the same line of thinking the front office had. In hindsight, maybe the deadline was the perfect time to move him. They already sold off a lot of what made this offense great, so why not move Abrams as well.

For the Nats to keep Abrams into next season, there needs to be a clear plan to build a playoff team by 2028. After this deadline, that still feels far off, especially if Abrams can’t carry his weight in the second half. If they trade Abrams this offseason, you are not going to get the kind of return you would have received at the deadline.

At that time, Abrams had an extra half season of control and was exercising his second half demons. However, old habits tend to die hard and Abrams is falling back into his old ways. He just does not look right physically or mentally.

One thing that absolutely seems to have taken a toll on him is the position change. On August 14th, it was announced that Abrams would be moving to second base, something he did not sound happy about when he talked to the media. Since August 15th, Abrams is hitting .118 with a .390 OPS. He is 9 for 76 with 29 strikeouts.  

Abrams has to take some blame for this, but it does not seem like the position change has gone down well. The timing of the move seemed odd and it is not aging well. If the idea was to show other teams Abrams can play second to boost his trade value, the idea backfired. The move has played a role in muting his offense, thus lowering that value.

As I said, Abrams deserves blame for letting this throw him off his game. He is a professional and needs to be a team player. However, all of this just seems like an unforced error that did not need to happen.

What could have been a special season for Abrams is once again ending on a sour note. He still has 30 homers and 28 steals, but his numbers have really gone in the tank. When July ended, Abrams had a .290 average and .930 OPS. Today, CJ Abrams now has a .259 average and .827 OPS. 

That .930 OPS was over his true talent level and we had to expect regression. However, it is very disappointing to see Abrams totally go in the tank down the stretch. He is getting better every year, but we always end seasons with more questions than answers.

With a career 56 wRC+ in August and 84 wRC+ in September, this might just be who Abrams is. The only thing that is holding me back from saying that outright is the kinds of teams he has been on. Over the last three seasons, the Nats have been a pretty sad team down the stretch.

Abrams is clearly a player who thrives off good vibes and confidence. With everything collapsing around him, it is tough to have those things. If he were actually on a team that was competitive in September, I do not think the collapses would be this bad. 

However, that is just a theory right now. At some point, Abrams has to go out there and prove he can perform at even an average level the last two months of the season. If Abrams wants to consider himself a superstar that deserves a massive payday, he cannot perform like this down the stretch.

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Philadelphia (64%) is a sizable favorite to take the series finale against Houston as I make my Astros vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 10.

The Phillies are 8-2 with a 2.5-run average margin of victory in home games with Zack Wheeler on the mound, and I'm expecting that success to continue tonight.

Who will win Astros vs Phillies today: Philadelphia Phillies (63%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Zack Wheeler appears to have rebounded after a mid-season rough patch. He posted an xERA of 3.14 in three of the past four starts, and Wheeler is in a good spot to build on that against the Houston Astros.

They sit 28th in xwOBA against right-handed pitching in September, and rank dead-last over the past 30 games.

Cristian Javier has found his footing as well, but five of his past six starts came against teams ranking in the bottom 10 in OPS vs. righties (the Philadelphia Phillies are 18th).

Play this to 66%.

COVERS INTEL:Zack Wheeler ranks in the 90th percentile in pitching run value, giving the Phillies a clear advantage on the mound.

Astros vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (50%)

I don’t see either team producing a ceiling performance at the plate.

The Astros are 26th in hard-hit rate and 28th in squared-up contact against righties this month. They’re not stringing together many damaging swings.

While the Phillies have been generating more hard-hit balls, they’re not finding barrels. Only the Guardians rank below the Phillies in barrels versus righties in September.

Javier’s pitching profile has improved drastically of late, but he's still struggling to limit home runs. The matchup should help.

Play to 53%.

Astros vs Phillies home run prediction: Bryce Harper (22%)

Fastballs and changeups account for nearly 70% of what Javier throws against left-handed hitters. That should play into Bryce Harper's hands, as he's gone nuclear when facing those two pitches this season.

Harper has hit .354 with an xwOBA of nearly .500. More importantly, his barrel rate sits at 17.2% and his xSLG has cleared .700. 

He consistently hammers those pitches, and Harper will see a steady diet of fastballs and changeups with Javier on the mound.

Astros vs Phillies weather

Temperatures in the low 80s are expected, with winds blowing left to right. That's a boost to the bats. 

Astros vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Astros 38% | Phillies 63%
• Run line: Astros +1.5 (55%) | Phillies -1.5 (46%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (51%) | Under 8.5 (50%)

Astros vs Phillies trend

Philadelphia has hit the moneyline in 18 of the last 24 games (+10.80 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies.

How to watch Astros vs Phillies and game info

Astros vs Phillies latest injuries

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Anybody in sports management has to make a lot of decisions that may or may not pan out. GM Chris Getz made some last offseason that went well, and some at the trade deadline that have proven dismal. Manager Will Venable has to make decisions in-game that may or may not work that particular day, like the lineup, pitching changes and substitutions, not to mention all his off-field management of the team.

But even in a year that has wildly exceeded expectations even if they go 0-for-the-rest-of-the-season, the White Sox have one decision coming up that could ruin all the goodwill amassed so far, or make them heroes nigh on forever — or at least until next season, whenever that may be.

That decision is what to do about Sean Burke.

There’s no question the ace of the staff is struggling. He was just absolutely pounded by the Pirates, but he’s had a hard time of it for a month. Even in the only start with a good finishing line, allowing no runs to Houston, it took him 104 pitches to get through 5 2/3 innings.

Something has to be done. But what?

Well, that’s why Getz and Venable get paid the big bucks.

Burke is obviously out of gas. Not all pitchers indicate so by a drop in velocity — some, like Burke, lose command and/or sharpness instead. He’s already 22 innings beyond his total for 2025, and Steve Stone says you can increase a pitcher’s workload from year to year but usually not by much. Stone also points out that it’s not just how many innings or pitches you throw, but the pressure under which you’re working — and the pressure of performing as the ace of a team with a narrow division lead is a whole lot different than just being another guy on a team heading to 100 losses.

Midseason, you could afford to rest him. But with just 18 games to go — three more turns through the rotation for him — and just a two-game lead on Cleveland for the AL Central title and 1 1/2 games on the Astros for the No. 2 playoff seed — how do you do that?

There are two directions to go.

You can realize that without a long rest Burke will be useless in the playoffs, potentially leaving the Sox with no starting pitcher they can really rely on in the postseason, and so find him a handy blister like the one that put Davis Martin on the 15-day IL and bring him back for one appearance to warm up before the playoffs. But that could very well mean not making the playoffs — so the point would be lost.

Or, you can decide that without Burke for the rest of the regular season you’re apt to fade out of playoff status, and keep him in the rotation and hope for the best. Even if he is totally tanked, if you somehow get to the postseason anyway, you can still claim, “We made the playoffs, we made the playoffs!” no matter what happens at that point.

With a loaded staff, the decision to rest Burke would be easy. But while the bullpen rates first place in Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Average by Position (and is itself starting to look very tired), the starters are on the fade. After his restful IL stint, Martin came back with a strong game in Houston — but that’s one game, which may or may not be indicative of how he’ll be the rest of the season (this is written before he faced the Pirates). Anthony Kay is showing a lot of wear and tear, getting through three innings or so looking like Sandy Koufax, but then getting shelled in the fourth or fifth every time. Luis Castillo, the alleged innings-eater, has proven to be an over-the-hill huge mistake. José Urquidy has been awful except for one game, and is apparently now hurt.

That leaves Erick Fedde as the ace if Burke is out. Fedde has been OK since being reinstated from the bullpen in mid-August (maybe a nice rest there helped), with six runs in 21 2/3 innings in five starts or pseudo-starts. But do you really want to depend on Fedde in a big game?

Of course, rest Burke and you need to either really stretch out Hagen Smith before he’s ready, tax your already-tired relievers with regular bullpen games, or bring up someone from Charlotte. Several of the minor leaguers have thrown well … in the minors, that is. In brief stints with the Sox, not so much.

The choices don’t appear attractive. But decisions have to be made.

What say, Will and Chris?

And, for that matter, handed control of the team, what would say you?

The Cubs, hopefully, will right the ship soon or any postseason play they do qualify for — and yes, there’s now a chance they won’t make it at all — will be short.

They lost to the Brewers 8-6 Wednesday evening in Milwaukee, and the game wasn’t that close. That’s a series sweep for the Brewers and the Cubs’ fourth straight loss. How was your Wednesday?

Let me get straight to the first Craig Counsell managerial choice I disagreed with.

The Brewers took a 3-0 lead in the first inning on a three-run homer by Christian Yelich. Yelich is not the player he was a few years ago and that was just the second home run he’d hit in his last 19 games. Both of those homers are off Cubs pitching.

Anyway, Kevin Gausman, who was so good against Milwaukee last week at Wrigley Field, clearly didn’t have it on this night. He gave up two more hits after the homer and threw 33 pitches in the first inning.

Javier Assad is available. He last pitched Saturay in Miami, that’s three days rest after an 88-pitch outing. Surely, Assad could have given the Cubs four innings or so. Right? (Also, there’s an off day today, a perfect time to use a pitcher like this.)

Wrong. Gausman was sent out for another inning, and another home run was hit, this one by Jackson Chourio, and the ball was last seen heading down I-94 toward Chicago. (Not really, but it went 436 feet at 109 miles per hour, yikes.) A walk followed, and then William Contreras launched one and this game was pretty much over.

BCB’s JohnW53 described this to me as a “brutal” fact:

The third home run off Kevin Gausman was the 221st surrendered by the Cubs this season, the most they ever have served up through 147 games of a season.They allowed 219 in 20o0.

Gausman was left in for four innings and 94 pitches and I’m still picturing Assad, sitting forlorn in the Cubs bullpen, wondering if he’ll ever get to pitch again. Hey, Iowa’s season has a week and a half to go! Can’t waste that option, right, Jed Hoyer?

You’ll pardon the sarcasm, but…

Oh, yes. More on Gausman’s start from John:

Kevin Gausman’s start was the fifth this season by a Cub of four or fewer innings in which he allowed at least seven runs.

Edward Cabrera had two of them: eight and seven runs, both in 3.2. Jameson Taillon gave up seven in 4.0, the same as Gausman. David Peterson surrendered 10 in 3.2. One runs off Gausman was unearned. All the others were earned.

Anyway. After Nico Hoerner made a rare throwing error in the third, the Brewers scored yet another run to make it 7-0, that one unearned off Gausman.

Meanwhile, Logan Henderson retired the first nine Cubs. Pete Crow-Armstrong singled for the first Cubs hit leading off the fourth and went to second on a passed ball. He took third on a fly to right by Seiya Suzuki and scored on this ground out by Michael Busch [VIDEO].

Trent Thornton relieved Gausman in the fifth and threw a scoreless inning. The Brewers scored a run off Daniel Palencia in the sixth, unearned due to another throwing error, this one on second baseman Pedro Ramirez. That made it 8-1.

Caleb Thielbar and Colin Rea added scoreless innings, one each, in the seventh and eighth. Assad sighs and sits in the bullpen with the rest of his teammates.

Then the Cubs put together a rally in the ninth, which, unfortunately, came up a bit short.

PCA led off with a walk, advanced to second on a throwing error on an attempted pickoff by Brandon Sproat, and then Sproat threw a wild pitch, sending PCA to third.

Sproat then walked Suzuki and Busch to load the bases with nobody out. Hmmm. Could something actually happen here?

Alex Bregman then struck out, but Sproat then walked Ian Happ to force in a run [VIDEO].

At that point Brewers manager Pat Murphy had seen enough of Sproat and brought in Abner Uribe. Nico then singled to left to make it 8-3 [VIDEO].

The bases remained loaded for Ramirez, who grounded out, with a run scoring to make it 8-4 [VIDEO].

So now the Cubs are down by four, with runners on second and third. Both runners scored on this double by Michael Conforto [VIDEO].

Well.

Now it’s 8-6 and the tying run is going to step to the plate. You don’t suppose…

Here’s where I take issue with another Counsell choice. Carson Kelly was the next due hitter. Counsell sent B.J. Murray Jr. up to bat for Kelly, I suppose to get the platoon advantage with Murray, a switch-hitter, batting left-handed.

Sometimes managers overthink the platoon advantage and I think Counsell did so here. Kelly had that key two-run double on Tuesday and was 1-for-3 in this game. Murray’s a rookie with nine MLB at-bats in which he’d gone 1-for-9.

Now which guy would YOU have had take that at-bat? Me, I’m picking Kelly 100 times out of 100.

But Counsell chose Murray. Credit to Murray for running the count full, but Uribe struck him out to end the game [VIDEO].

Here are Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

The Cubs didn’t lose the game just because of those two decisions, still, I would have chosen otherwise.

The worst part of this defeat wasn’t just the loss, it was the Phillies win over the Astros, which put the Cubs 1.5 games behind Philadelphia for the top wild card spot. The Cubs lead the Padres by 2.5 games and the Diamondbacks by three. The latter two teams will play their last three games against each other in San Diego and that series might make or break the Cubs’ postseason chances.

Is this a collapse? Not yet, fortunately, but the Cubs are going to have to right the ship quickly.

The Cubs return to Wrigley Field Friday after an off day today to open a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Shōta Imanaga will start for the Cubs. Braxton Ashcraft will go for Pittsburgh. Game time Friday is 1:20 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network (and MLB Network outside the Cubs and Pirates market territories).

Nature is healing, as they say. For two very distinct reasons.

Reason 1: The Braves, having sauntered to a pretty lofty record despite mediocre production, have been absolutely ravaged by some combination of baseball’s luck dragons and/or the Tampa Bay Rays’ sublime-in-this-series defensive positioning. Seriously:

• First game: the Braves actually out-xwOBAed the Rays, .334 to .326, but managed just a .156 wOBA while the Rays managed a .426 wOBA. That was the Braves’ biggest xwOBA underperformance of the year. Amazingly, the Rays outhitting their xwOBA by .100 in a single game didn’t even fall in their top ten xwOBA overperformances for the year.
• Second game: in nearly a repeat of Game One, the Braves put forth a .336 xwOBA… and a .197 wOBA. The Rays out-xwOBAed them (.347), but not by much, and certainly not to the extent that they out-wOBAed the Braves (.339).

If this is how the universe attempts to set things to rights for the Braves leading the division while sliding towards the bottom third in position player production, well… the rest of the season is gonna suuuuuuuck. So let’s hope that doesn’t happen. It probably won’t, but we’ve seen this team run extended xwOBA underperformances for a while, and it’s awful every single time.

Reason 2: I have to cover another Martin Perez start. Sigh. Maybe this means that Perez Pachinko will turn up positive for the Braves, though I wouldn’t count on it. But at least I’ll get to complain about it if it doesn’t.

On the season, Perez is up to 124 1/3 innings and 1.2 fWAR on the back of a 78/104/104 (ERA-/FIP/xFIP-) line. He’s been fine and the defense has done a good job of preventing runs behind him… which means that he’s a prime target for getting blooped and bleeder-ed to death by the Rays, given the way this series has gone. Perez is coming off pretty much his worst pitching of the year. The media narrative has been that extra rest messed with his command, but let’s be real: it was the eighth time in 23 outings that he walked more than he struck out, so it seems more like it was just one end of the gamut of possible starts you get when you employ Perez, moreso than anything else. It just so happened to be paired with his third-lowest grounder rate of the year, which is why he got knocked around by the Phillies before exiting after 3 2/3 innings of work.

In addition to the universe and/or the Rays’ defensive positioning, the Braves will need to contend with Nick Martinez as they try to avoid getting swept at home and possibly dropping the division lead down to two games ahead of a weekend set with the Phillies. Martinez has had a weird year — he’s put up 2.6 fWAR in 160 innings, but it’s come with a 73/95/108 line. It’s tempting to say that the Rays made some set of big fixes to get more out of the journeyman despite him playing in his age-35 season, but his 108 xFIP- is similar to his career 111 xFIP-. He’s just running a low HR/FB and getting fortunate when the ball remains in play. Some of that is going away as the season progresses: he’s at 90/97/105 since the All-Star Break compared to 63/93/110 before, but whether you believe that trend will keep up against the Braves right now is up to you.

In his career, the Braves have been a mixed bag against Martinez. He’s dominated them in his most recent two outings, but the Braves tagged him pretty handily in the other two that came earlier. Martinez-as-Ray is a bit different, and the most recent start he had against the Braves came as a Red in 2024, so I’d sweat whatever the baseball gods have planned for the Braves far more than their history against Martinez.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Thursday, September 10, 12:15 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV/Streaming: BravesVision

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

It’s a bit hard to imagine right now because Adley Rutschman’s only played 19 games in a Red Sox uniform (including just four of the last ten), but when the regular season ends, he’s the only man I’d expect to see behind the plate. Every inning, every game! Not only will the stakes be orders of magnitude more important by that point, pushing the Sox out of their current “rest and recover” mode and into a “you need to win every game right now” mode, but if you make a legit run in the postseason, it’s littered with off-days.

Let’s be optimistic and say the Sox win both the Wild Card round and the ALDS in their maximum three and five game versions. In that scenario, their schedule over the first two weeks of the playoffs will look like this (with off-days in bold):

• 9/28 (Off-Day)
• 9/29 (Game 1)
• 9/30 (Game 2)
• 10/1 (Game 3)
• 10/2 (Off-Day)
• 10/3 (Game 1)
• 10/4 (Off-Day)
• 10/5 (Game 2)
• 10/6 (Off-Day)
• 10/7 (Game 3)
• 10/8 (Game 4)
• 10/9 (Off-Day)
• 10/10 (Game 5)
• 10/11 (Off-Day)

And again, assuming the Red Sox win both of these series, this is the minimum amount of off-days they would get over this stretch. They could just as well win the Wild Card round in two games or the LDS in three or four. That means there’s even a scenario out there where they make it to Game 1 of the ALCS with nine days off in the previous 14.

I’m not going to go on another rant about how ridiculous I think this element of the postseason format is today, but for Red Sox purposes, it does present them with an intriguing opportunity and decision. Specifically, is Connor Wong even necessary on the postseason roster? And, if not, what else can they add in that spot?

From the Rutschman side of things, if he’s going to become a permanent fixture behind the plate, you really only need an “in case of emergency, break glass” guy as the backup. That’s completely different than the “we need somebody to start half the games behind the plate while we rest the main guy” role the Sox are using Connor Wong for right now. That more traditional backup catcher role is not going to exist by the end of the month.

The ideal guy for the postseason Sox backup catcher role is instead somebody who can hit and be useful in other situations, and then — if and only if you absolutely need somebody else in there to catch at the end of a game thanks to a ten run blowout or an injury — you put them in there. And wouldn’t you know? The Red Sox seem to have just the guy for that role.

Last night adds even more evidence to this theory. In a mostly forgettable game that saw the Sox fall behind 6-0 early on a rainy night at Fenway in which they also had to compete with the Patriots season opener for New England’s attention, there was one very notable element: Mickey Gasper started behind the plate and caught all nine innings.

I don’t think that’s a “hey, let’s make this a permanent thing” kind of start.” I think that’s a “hey, let’s make sure you can do this in a pinch if needed” kind of start because we want you on the postseason roster.

Remember, once the Wild Card series starts, the rosters have to go back down to 26 men, and that almost certainly means 13 position players and 13 pitchers. Not only are the Red Sox using 14 position players right now, but they also will be adding Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela back later this month, meaning simple math says that three guys gotta go.

Two of them are pretty obvious from where I’m sitting: Andruw Monasterio and Nate Eaton. Monasterio served a key role for this club in the summer months, but with his bat cooling off (a .398 OPS in the the last 30 days dating back to August 10th) and the team seemingly committed to Trevor Story, Nick Sogard and Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the middle infield, he becomes an easy target to squeeze out. Eaton on the other hand is really only here because of injuries, and while his stay could get extended if the Sox get bad news on Eli White’s foot, it’s hard to imagine him surviving into October.

From there (assuming health, which is admittedly always a dangerous thing to do), the decision gets much more complicated. The Sox would either need to drop one of the Story / Sogard / Kiner-Falefa trio, drop Jahmai Jones and his elite ability to crush lefties, or drop Eli White who has top notch speed and the ability to cover all three outfield positions.

This is the compelling bottle neck teams run into when you have 13 men available in a DH environment and a need for a backup catcher. Specific bench roles dwindle, and you really only have room for three specialists not in the starting lineup. But again, what if you don’t really need a backup catcher outside of emergencies? All of a sudden you can get a fourth, useful bench guy in there as long as he can backup catch. And folks, that’s exactly where I think Mickey Gasper fits into the puzzle.

Much of it is probably still going to depend on how hot he can stay in September, and the last few days alone provide an interesting case study. Gasper’s suddenly gone hitless in his last four games, but he’s also walked five times with just one strikeout during that stretch. Compare that to Connor Wong who is batting .170 with a .513 OPS since July 18th and has only two walks during that time, and I just don’t think there’s any real use for Wong on a postseason roster if he’s not going to see much (if any) time behind the plate.

So for all the throw away stuff you can very much ignore from Red Sox baseball during the last week as they prepare for October, Mickey Gasper getting the start behind the dish last night isn’t one of them. That little maneuver feels highly significant!

The Twins added 21 draft picks to the organization on July 11th and 12th, and we got a glimpse of 9 of them over the final month of the season. While draft year production in such a small sample size is largely unimportant, looking into the underlying numbers does help us evaluate each player’s tools. Its always tough to know how a high school or college player’s game will translate to professional baseball, so this quick look is worth paying attention to. Scroll through as I rank the 7 position players and 2 pitchers that debuted this season based on my renewed and expanded view on them.

1. C Vahn Lackey

Talking about Vahn Lackeyseems to be the only reasonable way to kick off this article. The No. 3 overall pick this summer appeared in 15 games for the Mussels and 10 games up in Cedar Rapids after a dominant junior season at Georgia Tech. Lackey absolutely looked the part in his first taste of pro ball, slashing .250/.435/.424 for a 137 wRC+ with more walks than strikeouts. He showed off an extremely patient approach with borderline plus contact skills and an impressive feel for pulling fly balls. Power development will ultimately determine how high his ceiling is, while impactful defense at catcher and good speed on the bases increase his floor. You will continue to hear a lot about Lackey next year as he hopes to push his way towards the majors.

2. C Carson Tinney

While Lackey was promoted to High-A at the end of August, 2nd round pick Carson Tinney stuck around in Fort Myers and absolutely mashed for 24 games. Strikeouts and whiffs will always be an issue, but the 70 grade power and patient approach are already on full display. Tinney slashed .203/.400/.532 with a 21.9% walk rate, finishing with a 143 wRC+. He posted exit velocities up to 114.9 MPH and registered a 14.7% chase rate. He needs to be more aggressive in the strike zone, but the raw tools present a superstar ceiling. He is a limited athlete, but there is hope that he can develop into an average defensive catcher. If it doesn’t work out behind the dish, a slugging first baseman is not a bad fallback.

3. RHP Thomas Burns

The Longhorns closer, Thomas Burns, made his Single-A debut in the last weekend of the season and struggled in it, but his stuff immediately becomes some of the best in the organization and gives him a good chance to fly through the minors in 2027. Fastball command is a clear issue, but with plus carry in the upper 90s, the pitch has the potential to become one of the most dominant heaters in the world. Burns pairs it with an above-average cutter around 90 MPH. His changeup is a rarely-thrown third pitch that lacks any command feel, but it has quality shape with strong velo separation in the mid 80s. If Thomas Burns can be a consistent strike-thrower, then his stuff has a real chance to push him all the way to Target Field next year.

4. 2B Colby Turner

Twins’ 12th round pick Colby Turner broke out at Michigan this past spring, and his profile intrigued me when I first dove into it. Turner validated me by dominating Single-A for 25 games, slashing .330/.436/.505 for a 152 wRC+. He has a short and quick swing with impressive bat speed. This combo generates strong contact rates with quality power. He is a more aggressive free-swinger with high chase rates, especially against fastballs. He’s an average athlete with questionable defense, playing a mix of second, third, and corner outfield. The talent in his bat presents a real path to the majors. After just one month, Colby Turner’s offensive talent has nearly forced him into my top 40.

5. RHP Max Bayles

Twins’ 7th round pick Max Bayles was a strikeout machine at Santa Clara, striking out 209 batters over 137 innings in his last two years. At 6’3” with excellent extension from a high release point, Bayles possesses good physical traits for a starting pitcher. His repertoire is interesting, led by a cut fastball around 90 MPH and may not be a big whiff pitch, but it has good spin and enough bite to generate a lot of ground contact. His best pitch is a more loopy breaking ball around 80 MPH that gets good two-plane break with spin rates near 2,800. He locates it well around the bottom of the zone and generates a lot of whiff with the pitch. He will mix in a 4-seam fastball that sits around 90-91 with an ideal plane for hitters to tee off on the pitch. It is effectively a two-pitch arsenal at the moment. He nibbled a lot throughout his college career, increasing strikeouts but also leading to heavy walk rates. Bayles needs to be more of a strike-thrower if he is going to work as a starter in the minor leagues. There are a lot of areas to improve, including adding velocity, broadening the repertoire, and increasing strike-throwing efficiency, but the ingredients are there for him to work his way to the majors, likely as a bullpen arm.

6. SS Isaiah Lane

While Isaiah Lane doesn’t quite have the best underlying numbers, his monstrous production over 23 games at Single-A is noteworthy. The 13th round pick slashed .288/.430/.548 for a 155 wRC+. He’s an extremely patient hitter with a chase rate just under 10% in the small sample size. Fringy contact and power is holding him back, but there is potential for impact on the defensive end. He likely gets pushed off shortstop in the upper levels, but Lane is a quality defender who can be impactful somewhere in the infield.

7. SS Charlie Scholvin

15th round pick Charlie Scholvin is well-regarded for his contact-oriented approach. He holds limited power and posted a rough slash line of .183/.359/.200 in 20 games, but the underlying numbers were strong as his early returns display a plus hit tool. He made impressive swing decisions in the small sample, remaining aggressive in the zone while recognizing spin extremely well and limiting chase against breaking balls. The power is severely limited with poor raw pop and a line drive approach, but Scholvin is a very mature hitter with an impressive on-base profile. He has already accumulated a highlight reel of defensive plays while playing a mix of infield spots. He didn’t commit a single error in 20 games and is a reliable defender with good range, but he may not have the twitch and fluidity to play shortstop at a high level in the majors. Still, Scholvin looks like a good utility infielder with a fringy bat.

8. OF Aidan Teel

Aidan Teel had a disappointing spring after transferring to Mississippi State. The strikeout rate skyrocketed as his hit tool that once looked plus has lost some of its spark. He ran a respectable .238/.364/.349 slash line for a 98 wRC+ in 19 games with the Mighty Mussels. He struck out at a 26% clip, but above-average contact rates and good swing decisions suggest that the hit tool isn’t anything to worry about. Teel didn’t produce much of any power this year and his max EV of 102 MPH in the short Single-A stint doesn’t create much hope. He is a solid athlete and projects to be a reliable corner outfielder. A fine all-around baseball player, but nothing in his profile presents much upside.

9. C Hideki Prather

Drafted in the 17th round, Hideki Prather is a skilled catcher with an accurate arm and solid pop times. While the exit velocities were below the 10th percentile in his 14 game stint in Single-A, Prather smacked 14 homers at Cal this spring and has a solid barrel feel. The power production still projects to be well below-average, but his hit tool has translated to pro ball well so far as he posted a 91.5% zone contact rate in the small sample. His quality of contact needs to improve significantly, but Prather’s defensive profile sets a high floor. There probably won’t be enough juice in the bat to make it to the majors, but there is no problem with getting some minor league catching depth in the late rounds.

Jesús Luzardo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the second half of this season. After being awarded NL Pitcher of the Month for August with a 3-0 record and 1.31 ERA, Luzardo began September with the first complete game shutout of his career. His step forward into becoming an elite starter has given the Phillies an enviable rotation as the postseason creeps closer.

In fact, that rotation gives them some options on how the team could opt to deploy it in the postseason. Nothing is clinched yet, but it appears likely that the Phillies will be playing in the Wild Card series, with their most likely opponent being the Chicago Cubs. Earlier this week, Matt Gelb of the Athletic broke down the reasoning for using Luzardo out of the bullpen in Game 1 of that potential series. Below is an excerpt of Gelb’s reasoning:

“If Luzardo were to sit in the bullpen for Game 1 and pitch on what would normally be his day for a side bullpen session, he could still start a potential Game 3. It’s asking a lot, but a three-game series calls for extreme tactics. In an ideal world, the Phillies could craft a plan in which their Game 1 starter records 17 or 18 outs with Luzardo and Jhoan Duran being asked to secure the final nine or 10 outs.”-Matt Gelb in the Athletic

It’s an interesting proposition, as the Phillies’ struggles with building a bridge to Jhoan Duran have been evident this season. That’s even before taking into consideration the fact that their bullpen has been one of the major culprits in some of their early postseason exits in recent seasons.

The Phillies best chance to win a postseason series, especially a short Wild Card series, would be to use their bullpen outside of Duran as little as possible. Deploying Luzardo there gives them that ability to do just that. That would of course mean that Luzardo would not start Game 1 despite possibly being the hottest hand, but as Gelb notes, it would not preclude him from starting a potential Game 3 or Game 1 of the NLDS. Luzardo also has experience pitching out of the bullpen in the postseason, as he did it in last year’s NLDS against the Dodgers when he threw 1.2 innings in extras and was charged with one unearned run.

So, how would you use Jesús Luzardo in a potential Wild Card series?

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The Atlanta Braves are slim 53% home favorites this afternoon against the Tampa Bay Rays, with first pitch scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET from Truist Park. 

My Rays vs. Braves predictions side with the visiting underdogs, as Nick Martinez is in good form and Martin Perez is struggling to limit damage. 

Find out more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 10. 

Who will win Rays vs Braves today: Rays (48%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Nick Martinez takes the mound today, and he has been extremely reliable. The veteran owns a 2.81 xERA across his last five starts with pinpoint command and minimal home-run damage allowed.

Martinez has also limited opponents to a 34.7% hard-hit rate during that span. For what it’s worth, he has held current Atlanta Braves hitters to a .222 average across 81 at-bats.

Martin Perez, meanwhile, is struggling. Over the last month, the left-hander owns a 6.61 xERA with major control issues, surrendering 5.18 BB/9 across his previous five appearances.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 103 wRC+ over the last week, while Atlanta sits at just 67 across its last six contests.

The edge is not massive, but Tampa Bay is the cleaner look.

Play this pick up to 50%.

COVERS INTEL: Perez has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate over his previous two starts. That's compared to his season average of just 38.1%. This is a clear opportunity for Tampa to feed off his struggles. 

Rays vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (50%)

I’m leaning Over 8.5, mostly because of the late-game scoring paths. Atlanta’s bullpen has been vulnerable recently, posting a 4.55 FIP over the last week, with a 1.88 HR/9.

Tampa Bay’s relief corps has been even shakier, owning a 5.54 xERA across its previous 23 frames with a 1.57 HR/9. That gives both lineups a chance to do damage once the starters exit.

Atlanta’s offense is cold, so this isn’t a perfect Over angle. But with both bullpens allowing a lot of long-ball damage, this game doesn't need a full early explosion to clear 8.5.

Play this pick up to 53%.

Rays vs Braves home run prediction: Junior Caminero (20%)

Junior Caminero is a consistent power force for the Rays, and he’s in good form right now. The slugger has left the yard twice in his last six games while posting a .304 ISO.

The underlying numbers showcase just how loud he's been at the plate. Caminero owns a 58.8% hard-hit rate and 17.6% barrel rate during that span. While he isn’t putting the ball in the air a ton lately, his 40% HR/FB rate shows the damage he can do when he gets lift.

The Braves’ bullpen has been prone to homers, and while Perez does not allow a ton of bombs, his hard-contact issues create some vulnerability.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Rays vs Braves weather

Weather looks warm and hitter-friendly at Truist Park this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures climbing from the mid-80s toward the upper 80s. Winds are very light around 2–3 mph, and rain chances stay near 0%–3%, so there’s no real delay concern. The heat could slightly help carry.

Rays vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Rays 48% | Braves 53%
• Run line: Rays -1.5 (36%) | Braves +1.5 (65%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (51%) | Under 8.5 (50%)

Rays vs Braves trend

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Braves.

How to watch Rays vs Braves and game info

Rays vs Braves latest injuries

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