Category: Baseball

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It's a getaway Thursday for some, but for us here, betting the MLB player prop markets and digging for dingers, and it's moving day as I'm looking to get into the black on the season once again.

Today's the day Fernando Tatis Jr. gets that home run monkey off his back, and the Athletics can turn Michael McGreevy's luck into a dinger today at Sutter Health Park. 

And adding Bobby Witt Jr. to any home run card right now just makes sense, as he might be the AL MVP betting favorite by June.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, May 14.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Fernando Tatis Jr.	+525
Shea Langeliers	+350
Bobby Witt Jr.	+450
💲Today's HR parlay	+12891

Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr (+525)

The drought ends today for Fernando Tatis Jr., who somehow has yet to go deep this year.

He’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball to this point. His xwOBA ranks second on the team despite slugging just .294. He also owns the fastest bat speed on the roster, ranks inside the Top 50 in baseball in that metric, and sits 25th in BlastContact%. Even his attack angle is in a great spot.

It’s a real head-scratcher, and it ends today against lefty Kyle Harrison, whom he’s taken deep over nine career at-bats while hitting .444.

Harrison is a fly-ball pitcher who might be pitching above expectations this season and profiles as a strong target today for a homerless Tatis, who feels more than due with the underlying metrics backing it up.

• Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV

Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)

There aren’t a lot of +EV home run props popping up in the projections today, but Shea Langeliers is one of them with a fair price around +300 against Michael McGreevy at the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, where temperatures are expected around 80 degrees with slight winds blowing out.

THE BAT ranks Langeliers as the 15th-best home run hitter in baseball, and he’s launched four longballs over his last 28 at-bats.

McGreevy owns a .200 BABIP that simply isn’t sustainable, and his xERA sits nearly three full runs higher than his actual ERA.

He’s not a strikeout pitcher and will have to pitch to contact in a difficult environment. It’s a great home run hitter in a great home run park on a slate without many strong options.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Cardinals.TV

Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+450)

It’s tough to go wrong with Bobby Witt Jr. on the home run card.

The guy can do it the conventional way or the Little League way, and +450 is a great price on a tough board against lefty Anthony Kay, whom Witt has already seen this season. He’s also hitting lefties at the best rate of his career in 2026. 

Witt owns a 191 wRC+ over the last two weeks, along with the seventh-best slugging percentage in baseball. He’s gone deep five times during that stretch, entering today on a two-game home run streak.

He’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and continues to climb the AL MVP odds board. I’d play Witt down to +400 in this matchup.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, CHSN

Today’s HR parlay

Fernando Tatis Jr.	Bet Now +12891
Shea Langeliers
Bobby Witt Jr.

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Rangers 6, D-Backs 5

• This game shall henceforth be known as The Jake Burger Game.
• I really should use “henceforth” more often. That’s a good word.
• And Paul Sewald coughing up a lead at the Shed brings back good memories, doesn’t it?
• If I were a D-Backs fan, I’d want to vomit.
• The Rangers had no business winning that game. Kumar Rocker was not good, the offense was largely stifled, the relievers offered little relief.
• When the ninth inning started, my thought was that the Rangers were in position to steal one here. Then, when Jacob Latz blew the save, my thought was that, well, this was a game the Rangers didn’t deserve to win in the first place.
• And then…
• And then…
• The unexpected happened.
• Crazy, huh?
• How Kumar Rocker managed to get through five innings without allowing any runs is beyond me. He threw 97 pitches, and the D-backs hitters swung and missed at just 5 of them. He couldn’t put batters away, with his 97 pitches spanning just 21 batters. Rocker walked four batters and struck out just three. Somehow, he gave up just three hits.
• Arizona starter Ryne Nelson, meanwhile, carved up the Rangers through four, with the only Ranger baserunner coming on a softly hit Evan Carter single.
• The Rangers’ fifth inning started with an infield single by Carter. After Ezequiel Duran struck out, Alejandro Osuna was hit by a pitch.
• Jake Burger swung at a first pitch fastball from Nelson and lofted the ball the opposite way…and it kept carrying, and carrying, and carrying until it reached the bleachers. Home run, 3-0 lead, Kumar Rocker is in line for the win.
• Then the Diamondbacks scored on Cole Winn in the sixth, and got a run home in the seventh, putting them in position to make that ninth inning comeback, while the Rangers had 11 of 12 batters retired after the Burger homer, with the one baserunner being due to a Josh Jung double, because apparently Josh Jung has to have a double every game.
• Come the ninth inning, Corey Seager struck out. Josh Jung singled. Evan Carter had a routine F-7.
• The Rangers, per B-R, had a 4% chance of winning the game after the Carter fly out. That win probability is based on a generic model, though. It doesn’t take into account the run-dampening qualities of the Shed, or the fact that the Rangers had Duran, Osuna, Burger and Danny Jansen — not exactly a Murderer’s Row (Murderers’ Row?) — due up.
• You know what happened. Duran doubled, bringing home Jung. Osuna drew a walk. Burger singled home Duran to tie the game. D-Backs manager Torey Lovullo pulled Paul Sewald for Juan Morillo, who apparently is taking a break from fronting Rage Against The Machine.
• And then Danny Jansen did this…

• Walk ‘em off, Danny Boy.
• Again, think how much this game must have stung for Diamondbacks fans.
• Arizona had 19 baserunners — 10 hits, 8 walks, and an E6. They left 13 runners on base. 13!
• The Rangers had 8 hits in the game — half of which came in the ninth inning. They had just one walk — the Osuna 9th inning walk. 10 baserunners, half of them coming in the ninth inning, six of them scoring.
• Texas was 3 for 4 with runners in scoring position in the game. You aren’t going to give up five runs, have just four at bats with runners in scoring position, and win many games.
• It reminds me of the old Buddy Hackett joke:
• “Ask me what the secret to comedy is.”
• “Okay, what’s the secret to co-”
• “TIMING!!!”
• Kumar Rocker’s sinker maxed out at 96.5 mph, averaging 94.7 mph. Cole Winn reached 95.7 mph with his fastball. Jalen Beeks’ fastball touched 95.2 mph. Peyton Gray’s one fastball was 92.6 mph. Tyler Alexander’s one sinker was 90.5 mph. Jacob Latz reached 97.3 mph with his fastball. Cal Quantrill’s sinker topped out at 95.7 mph.
• Evan Carter had a 103.9 mph ground out. Josh Jung had a 103.0 mph double. Ezequiel Duran had a 102.5 mph double. Joc Pederson had a 102.2 mph line out.
• Heading into an off day on a win — and a series win. Feels good.

I’m not going to argue one way or another, I’m just throwing the question out there.

The Braves got Mauricio Dubon in a salary dump. The Honduran utility man had a standout defensive year in 2025, accumulating 2.2 fWAR in just under 400 PAs, but that wasn’t enough for the Astros to be interested in retaining him for about $6 million in salary. He’d put up about 1 fWAR in 400 PAs the year before, and about 2 fWAR in 500 PAs in 2023. As he had never hit all that well, it was a defense-and-hope-the-bat-won’t-kill you profile.

Fast forward to, well, now, and Dubon has 1.0 fWAR in 165 PAs. He’s not playing defense at the same breakneck pace as last year, but it’s still good. His 108 wRC+ is a product of substantially outhitting his xwOBA (.328 wOBA, .309 xwOBA), but the xwOBA is his highest in a season since 2020, and decent in and of itself.

The Braves have benefited hugely from his versatility, as he served as the de facto starter at shortstop to help weather Ha-Seong Kim’s injury, only to shift around to the outfield to cover concerns with Michael Harris II’s quad and the seemingly-inevitable Ronald Acuña Jr. lower body injury. More to the point, unlike many “utility guys” (hi, Emilio Bonifacio, my longest-tenured enemy), Dubon has already accrued at least a run above average per Statcast’s measures at both shortstop and left field, and hasn’t been negative anywhere.

The bat continues to be a work in progress, but it really does feel like the emphasis is on the “progress” part of that idiom, after a fairly stagnant time in San Francisco and Houston. He has definitely oriented his approach to try and hit the ball harder, with the biggest change being more selective in terms of the strikes he offers at. It hasn’t been a profound shift as he still isn’t exactly clobbering the ball (.335 xwOBACON is well above his league-worst-ish marks the last two years, but still well below league average), but he’s done a good job shifting the boons available to him from his hand-eye coordination from “will make sure I make contact with everything” to “will make sure I hit everything at a productive angle, even if I don’t hit it all that hard.”

There have also been some interesting changes for him beyond that, as he’s completely remade his stance. He’s now standing further back in the box but also falling over the plate, which is letting him essentially fight the ball off to center and right, especially when he’s pitched outside. But, his stance is also much more open than before, which might help him turn on inside pitches (like he did last night), though I’m honestly not sure the exact mechanics of how an open stance helps when he’s geared a lot of his approach towards poking liners over the infield.

In any case, Dubon has been a huge part of the Braves being where they are right now — he’s filled multiple holes as they’ve arisen and come through quite a lot (11 games with 0.06 WPA or more), despite nothing particularly special in his overall WPA (it’s negative for the season) or clutch score (a very generic 0.20). (He also has 11 games with -0.06 WPA or worse. He’s been in the thick of it all year, but he’s come through as often as he hasn’t, basically.) Alex Anthopoulos has already made public statements about how depth has been huge this year while previously being a thing he ignored as somewhat of a counter-current to his former colleagues with the Dodgers/in the Andrew Friedman management tree.

So, will the Braves extend him? Or, will they let him hit free agency and re-sign him? An injury or performance decline could upend all of this, of course. But, the rest of the roster likely isn’t getting any younger or less injury prone, which means Dubon will have a clear role going forward should the Braves choose to retain him. His offensive track record suggests he won’t be in for a huge payday, but if he continues to polish himself at the plate, that might change.

Right now, I could see the Braves offering him about $15 million to hang around for next year. Dubon might try to angle for a bit more, but his camp might be better served and waiting to see how much of his current 4 fWAR-per-season pace he can sustain. The more he is able to, the larger a chance of a two-year-ish deal at league-average-regular ($20 million annually or so) that gets him to his mid-30s. But, if he really wants to stay and the keep the vibes near-immaculate, then yeah, I can see him signing something short to cover 2027.

What do you think?

The day is finally upon us. Many resigned themselves to the fact that when Ranger Suárez left in free agency over the winter, there would come a day in which he would be facing the Phillies. Suárez signing with the American League Boston Red Sox lessened that possibility, but the day has come, nevertheless. Suárez has had a good first month in Boston, as he owns a 2-2 record with a 2.77 ERA through seven starts. However, he left his last start on May 3rd after just four innings due to tightness in his right hamstring.

But we’re not here to discuss what Suárez has done with the Red Sox. Instead, let’s take some time to reminisce about Suárez’ Phillies career. Signed out of his native Venezuela when he was just 16-years old, Suárez grew to be a fan favorite in Philadelphia and pitched in almost every kind of role or situation you could imagine. He appeared in 187 games as a Phillie including 119 starts and went 53-37 with a 3.38 ERA. His trademark calm, cool, collected demeanor as well as his impeccable, nonchalant fielding became hallmarks of a very successful Phillies tenure.

However, the postseason is where Suárez really shined. His 1.48 career postseason ERA is seventh best all-time among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. That includes two scoreless appearances in the 2022 World Series. But of course, the Phillies wouldn’t have made it to that World Series if it weren’t for Suárez entering in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the NLCS with two on and one out in a one-run game with the Phillies clinging to the lead after Bedlam at the Bank. In true Ranger Suárez fashion, it took him only two pitches to record the final two outs and seal the pennant for Philadelphia.

It’s hard to top that when it comes to memorable moments for Ranger Suárez with the Phillies, but your opinion for your favorite may vary. So, what’s your favorite memory of Ranger Suárez with the Phillies?

Shōta Imanaga is pitching like the ace everyone hoped he would be.

Imanaga threw seven outstanding innings (and one batter into the eighth, and that inning led to the Cubs’ undoing), the third time this year he’s thrown seven. But Phil Maton could not hold a 1-1 tie together and the Cubs lost to the Braves for the second straight night, 4-1.

It wasn’t just Maton’s failure, either. The Cubs again didn’t generate much offense, just four hits and a single run. From BCB’s JohnW53:

The Cubs have made a total of 13 hits in their four straight losses: five, three, one and four.

Since 1901, they have made fewer in four consecutive games only once: 12, April 4-7, 2021: three, five, one and three. They won the first two games of that span, 4-3 over the Pirates and 5-3 over the Brewers, then lost to the Brewers, 4-0 and 4-2, the last game in 10 innings.

This is just the fourth time the Cubs managed only 13 hits in four games. The earlier three all were more than a century ago:  Sept. 3-4, 1905 (back-to-back doubleheaders); Sept. 28-Oct. 1, 1912; and Aug. 4-6, 1920 (doubleheader last day). The Cubs won one of the games in 1905 and lost all four in 1912 and 1920. 

Let’s go back to the beginning of this frustrating loss.

The game remained scoreless until the bottom of the fourth, when Drake Baldwin homered off Imanaga. That shouldn’t be a game-killer; a solo home run that early isn’t the worst thing in the world. And in 54.1 innings this season, Imanaga has allowed only five home runs, four of them solo.

The Cubs managed to tie the game up in the top of the fifth. Carson Kelly led off with a single and advanced to second on a ground out. Dansby Swanson walked and the Braves replaced starter JR Ritchie with reliever Tyler Kinley.

Nico Hoerner singled off Kinley to make it 1-1 [VIDEO].

A note on Nico’s RBI hit:

That’s where the game stayed through seven innings. Imanaga was allowed to start the eighth because left-handed hitter Michael Harris II was the leadoff hitter. Imanaga ran the count to 3-1 on Harris, who then broke his bat on a weak contact grounder to Nico.

Oh, no, Nico! [VIDEO]

That’s a play Hoerner makes 999 times out of 1,000. Unfortunately, that was the 1,000th time. (Also, how is that not an error on Nico?)

Maton replaced Imanaga and allowed a single to Ha-Seong Kim, then struck out Dominic Smith. Mike Yastrzemski batted for José Azocar and doubled in Harris, but Kim was thrown out at the plate by Pete Crow-Armstrong and Swanson [VIDEO].

At 2-1, this game might still have been within reach, but Maton then served up a home-run ball to Mauricio Dubón to make it 4-1 and the way the Cubs bats have been going, it might as well have been 40-1. The Cubs did get a leadoff walk from Michael Busch in the ninth off Raisel Iglesias, but Iglesias then got Michael Conforto to hit into a double play, and PCA popped up to end the game.

Holding the Braves, who lead MLB in runs, to five runs Tuesday and four runs Wednesday isn’t too bad. But the Cubs offense has simply gone missing on this road trip and, well, they’re going to have to find it pretty soon. The other teams in the NL Central all lost Wednesday, so the Cubs still lead the division by 2.5 games over the Brewers and Cardinals.

A couple of notes on Imanaga’s outing from John:

Imanaga’s seven innings plus one batter is the longest start by a Cub this season.

He had pitched 7.0 twice; Edward Cabrera and Jameson Taillon, once.

Imanaga gave up no runs and one run in his previous two, with four and three hits. He struck out five and one. In this one: five hits, no walks, six strikeouts.

Imanaga now has six quality starts. Cabrera has four; Taillon, three; and Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton and Colin Rea, one each, for a total 15 in 43 games.

Here’s a bit more on Shōta’s pitch selection [VIDEO].

Imanaga struck out six [VIDEO].

Imanaga’s 59 strikeouts are third in the National League behind Jacob Misiorowski (80) and Cristopher Sánchez (67).

Here are some postgame comments from Craig Counsell [VIDEO].

The series finale, on paper, is the toughest pitching matchup. Ben Brown will make his second start of 2026 for the Cubs. Last time out, against the Rangers last Friday, he was really good (four no-hit innings). Hopefully that continues. The Cubs will have to try to get the offense rolling against Chris Sale. Game time is again 6:15 p.m. CT and TV coverage wil be via Marquee Sports Network (and streaming on Peacock, the Braves broadcast, outside the Cubs and Braves market territories).

As I write this, late at night on an irksomely chilly May 13, in a year where (like every year now) spring seems reluctant to arrive, the Chicago White Sox are a .500 ballclub. The cold, sun-shy temps can make a person think we’re just at the start of a season, where they might be sitting at 3-3 in a still-formless barely-born year, but the calendar gives lie to that. 

We’re 42 games in. A bit more than a quarter-way through the 2026 season, and the Sox are officially mediocre. And that’s a cause for minor joy, which might be slightly sardonic but is neither muted nor insincere. 

It’s been a long time coming. Last season, the high-point was 2-2. In 2023, they were as good as 3-3 before the wheels came off. In 2024 the White Sox started strong, at 0-0, but quickly went downhill. 

In fact, the last time the Sox had a .500 record this late in the season was 2022. If you remember that year, we were perpetually .500. They hovered a game or two on either side of middling for most of the year. In a nice piece of tuneless harmony, they were never more than five games under or over .500, and even the eight-game losing streak that wrecked any hope at returning to the playoffs was balanced by going 5-2 to finish a pointless 81-81. 

It is that part — the chance of returning to the playoffs, in a weak AL Central just there for the taking — that made 2022 so brutal, and so emotionally different than this by-standings unremarkable year. Despite getting trounced by Houston in the 2021 playoffs, the defending division champ White Sox were hot preseason picks to win the World Series. Injuries, bad management, regression and terrible roster construction led to a season that never got started, until it came to a thudding finish. It’s weird and unsettling to think how not very long ago there was optimism, before the bottom fell completely out. 

It’s also strange to think that there have only been three years completely in the wilderness — and you might even say that we began to leave the wilderness last year. So the years of wandering weren’t that long, it is just that the wilderness was so thorny and snake-filled and parched and really not very pleasant to look at. Not a photogenic wilderness. More of a superfund site than a wilderness, really. 

There’s a chance that metaphor got away from me, just like the excitement we have over a .500 club could be seen as our emotions getting away from us. After all, there are a lot of negative signs, including a run differential of -12, which leads to an x-W/L of … 20-22. So only one game. But even that minor blip can be chalked up to an early-season bout of looking really bad in losses and like a normal baseball team in the wins. 

And that’s what the Sox are right now: a normal team. Not a good one, but not a bad one. Certainly not a historically bad one, as we’ve been. Not a World Series contender, but in a terrible year for the AL in general and the AL Central in particular, a goofily fringe playoff hopeful. 

Being normal when you’ve been intensely abnormal is a good feeling. It’s qualitatively different from being frustrating and mediocre when you expect more. There isn’t the agony of expectation, just the silly joy of thinking that you might, one day, have those agonized expectations again. 

If the season ended today, the Sox would be in the playoffs. It doesn’t end today, of course. But at the very least, it feels like something else might just be beginning. And no matter what the temperature is outside, no matter how unnatural our seasons might be, that feeling of a new bloom is proof that you can never hold back spring. 

1907
The lead-up to the first weekend game of the new season was full of pomp and circumstance, and the White Sox celebrated their World Series win over the crosstown Cubs. But after the parade into the park, as the pennant itself was being raised, the wooden flagpole at South Side Park snapped in half.

The heavy winds that ruined the climax of the pennant ceremony portended trouble for the day’s scheduled game against the Senators, as rains washed the action out after just four Washington batter.

The ill omen did not, in fact, spell a bad season for the White Sox. While the South Siders failed to repeat their AL pennant win, they finished 87-64-6 and led the AL for the majority of the season before falling to third place. At the time of the deluge that wiped out the game after the aborted ceremony, the White Sox were 17-8 and up by three games in the pennant race.

1914
White Sox starter Jim Scott threw a no-hitter, with one problem — the game against Washington remained tied, 0-0, through nine. To start the 10th, future Black Sox ringleader Chick Gandil broke up Scott’s no-hitter with a single, and the game was lost when the next batter, Howie Shanks, tripled Gandil home.

The game marked the first of three nine-inning no-hitters Ray Schalk caught during his 17 seasons with the White Sox.

1940
For the second time, Jimmie Foxx hit a home run over the Comiskey Park roof. It was the fifth roof shot in Comiskey history, all so far coming from opponents, and Foxx became the first player to accomplish the feat twice.

Foxx had two homers in the game, the first being the roof shot, that came in the second inning. The slugger also homered in the top of the 10th inning, the eventual game-winning margin of a 7-6 Boston win. Both home runs came off of Sox starter Johnny Rigney, who went 9 1⁄3 innings and surrendered all seven Bosox runs.

Before home plate was moved up eight feet in the 1980s, only two players every put two homers over the roof: Foxx, and his teammate in this 1940 game, Ted Williams.

1943
Buck Ross threw a one-hitter at the Yankees, giving up a single to Nick Etten with one out in the second inning but shutting New York down from there. The White Sox kept the outcome in some suspense, failing to crack onto the scoreboard until the seventh inning, when Wally Moses and Jimmy Grant tapped out run-scoring singles.

Ross would end up 11-7 in 1943 — his only winning record in 10 MLB seasons. Despite seven complete games and a 3.19 ERA, the righthander would earn just 1.1 WAR in the pitching-rich 1943 season.

1963
White Sox pitcher Ray Herbert fired his fourth consecutive shutout, beating the Tigers, 3-0, at Comiskey Park. Herbert allowed six hits and struck out seven. His shutout streak began on May 1, when he blanked the Orioles. That was followed by shutouts over the Senators and the Yankees. In the shutout stretch, Herbert only allowed 15 hits in 36 innings, with 22 strikeouts.

In the previous season, Ray won 20 games and was the winning pitcher for the American League in the second 1962 All-Star Game, played at Wrigley Field.

1967
White Sox pitching great Gary Peters authored his second career one-hitter, beating the Angels, 3-1, at Comiskey Park. It was the nightcap in a doubleheader sweep. Peters allowed only a second-inning home run to former Sox first baseman Bill “Moose” Skowron (traded to California by the White Sox just eight days earlier), and struck out 10. This was also the final win of a 10-game personal winning streak for Peters.

Peters made the All-Star team for the second time in his career that season, going 16-11 with a 2.28 ERA over 260 innings pitched.

1977
The White Sox hammered Cleveland, 18-2, in a game that started at 10:30 a.m. in connection with a promotion for the McDonald’s Egg McMuffin sandwich. First baseman Jim Spencer tied the franchise mark with eight RBIs on the day, going 3-for-3 with two home runs, including a grand slam along with a two-run shot and a two-RBI single. Spencer drove in eight runs in a game again later that season, against Minnesota.

Only four other players have driven in eight runs in a game for the White Sox, and if it needs be said, Spencer was the only one to do it twice — and fewer than two months apart, at that!

1998
Greg Norton became one of only 13 players to hit two home runs in the same game off of Randy Johnson. Norton homered in the third and fifth innings of a 5-3 win at Comiskey Park, going 2-for-3 in the game, with three RBIs.

2005
White Sox speedster Scott Podsednik became just one of eight players in White Sox history to swipe four bases in a game, doing so against the Orioles at U.S. Cellular Field. Just a week earlier, he grabbed four bases at Toronto. And in almost one year’s time, on May 1, 2006, Podsednik would accomplish the feat for a third time. Scotty Pods is the only player in franchise history to steal four bases in a game twice, much less three times.

2017
As part of an eight-run eighth inning against the Padres, White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier scored from third on an infield pop-up! Tyler Saladino popped up a bunt attempt, which was caught by San Diego’s Wil Myers near first base. Myers then turned his back and hesitated, and when Frazier saw that, he broke for the plate. The return throw was off-line and high, and Frazier slid in toscore. It delighted the White Sox home crowd, as part of a 9-3 win.  Fifteen White Sox players batted in the big inning, racking up four hits, five walks, a hit batsman and an error.

On Tuesday, radio ratings connoisseur Mike Felger dropped this whopper as it pertains to Mike Trout and the Red Sox:

The best part of the clip comes right in the middle, when Felger rattles off the reasons his slippery source believes a blockbuster trade of this magnitude is possible. All are significant enough for a bullet point:

• The Red Sox think Trout’s a better leader than Bregman
• He’ll hit a bunch of home runs at Fenway Park
• The Angels like Jarren Duran and Brayan Bello

That first point is a massive peek behind the curtain into the Civil War between Alex Cora’s people and Craig Breslow’s people. If you’re like me, and you believe that Alex Cora drove both Bregman pursuits, the comparison between Bregman and Trout as leaders should get your antenna up.

When Felger mentions this nugget, he’s reading from his source, meaning somebody went out of their way to make that comparison. Is it possible they’re plugged into the Breslow side of the operation and those guys aren’t pleased they had to bend to Cora’s way of thinking for a year and a half on that front? Remember, the Red Sox were on the verge of trading for Nolan Arenado in February of 2025 when John Henry swooped in at the last moment with his cigar and ponied up the funds for Bregman. Could this have been a Cora victory over Breslow that some in the organization still aren’t happy about?

But before I get lost down that wormhole, I want to turn back and address bullet point No. 3, because that’s the one directly tied to the money, which is what really matters here.

If the Angels really are interested in Jarren Duran and Brayan Bello, then we’re well on our way to a match because those are guys with limited surplus value going forward. You need guys like this in play because the immediate issue with any Trout trade talk is the enormous negative value that comes attached with his contract. He’s getting paid $37.1 million per year all the way through the end of 2030, which means there’s about $175 million to go prorated out as of mid May 2026.

Now consider that Mike Trout’s games played over the last five seasons look like this:

2021: 36

2022: 119

2023: 82

2024: 29

2025: 130

YIKES!

In short, any deal involving Mike Trout is going to require the Angels picking up a hefty portion of his remaining contract. It’s just a matter of how much. But additionally, it’s also one of the reasons the Angels may be motivated to move Trout right now. His hot start in 2026 could easily be their last best chance to get out from under the final few seasons of his mammoth deal, which again, kind of gives the timing of this rumor legs. (The Angels having the worst record in baseball at 16-28 and just a 1.1% chance to make the playoffs according to Fangraphs should also get conversations moving.)

It gets even better, though, when you consider the Red Sox have Masataka Yoshida on their books. He not only represents dead money in the short-term, but he also happens to be one of the five players in the current outfield / DH logjam that’s making Breslow look like a fool on a daily basis. And the fact that we’re talking about the short-term here is key, as that the timeframe the Angels would be more willing to take on some dead money, while Craig Breslow needs to get rid of it on his books to improve his job security.

In other words, Yoshida represents the possibility to cut into how much money the Angels have to eat in a complex deal. And interestingly enough, the framework of this type of exchange has history. In 2015, when the Blue Jays traded for Troy Tulowitzki, all of the following factors were in play:

• The Blue Jays were getting an injury prone superstar with five more years left on his contract.
• Toronto demanded the Rockies take back Jose Reyes in the deal because he was dead money and that was going to offset some of Tulowitzki’s contract the Rockies didn’t want to pay. (Sound familiar?)
• The 2015 Blue Jays were severely underachieving (under .500 into July) before the Tulowitzki trade helped them catch fire and win 93 games (and the AL East).
• The 2015 Blue Jays were run by Alex Anthopoulos, who, like Craig Breslow, had his job on the line and needed to make a big splash to shake things up. He went after the waning superstar player who had spent his entire career in one organization, and it turned out to be a spark that helped Toronto go to the ALCS in back to back seasons.

So against that backdrop, let’s take Duran’s money, Bello’s money, and Yoshida’s money and compare it to Trout’s year by year. For the table below, I assumed a salary for Duran of $10 million in 2027 and $13 million in 2028. We don’t know those exact figures yet because of how the MLB arbitration process works, but we have to put some sort of ballpark figures in there for the exercise to work.

Anyway, here they are added up and then compared to Trout’s total each year:

For the first three years, we’re really, really close! You’re only talking a difference of about $12 million total between now and the end of 2028, which, when you’re dealing with a mega contract like Trout’s, is peanuts.

I have no idea if Felger’s source is legit, but I can tell you this much: When you add Yoshida to the conversation, they got the math right. All of this is to say, I don’t think they’re totally pulling this rumor from their rear end.

But of course, even if they’re not, there are so many other hurdles to jump through on a project like this. The Tulowitzki deal referenced above took months of discussions before the sides aligned. Any potential Trout deal would still need to iron out the money in 2029 and 2030, the exact mix of secondary players, and the fact that Trout — unlike Tulowitzki — has a no-trade clause in place.

But while we’re this deep down the rabbit hole, it’s worth it to take a moment to dream. Jumping back up to that second bullet point in Felger’s clip, Trout would indeed hit a bunch of home runs at Fenway Park. Despite those ugly games played numbers over the last handful of years, if you extrapolate out Trout’s home run totals since the start of 2020 (130 in 491 games), they average out to 43 over 162 games. He’s exactly the the type of big right-handed stick the Sox need in the middle of this lineup.

Also, take a look at these spray charts below from Fangraphs. Trout’s renaissance in 2026 has come with increased slugging to the pull side, which makes me extra curious as to how Felger’s source phrased “he will hit a bunch of home runs at Fenway Park.” Are they referring to his spray chart in 2026 in addition to his raw power? Almost all of Trout’s extra base hits in 2026 have gone to the pull side whereas he’s been more of an all fields power guy throughout his career. Here’s just 2026 compared to the last five years mixed together.

There are also other benefits to a theoretical Trout trade, including how it completely fixes the outfield / DH logjam overnight. Instead of figuring out how you get Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida all in the lineup from the left side, you all of a sudden have four guys in Trout, Abreu, Anthony and Rafaela who fit perfectly into the three outfield / one DH arrangement, and all of them are under your control for the rest of the decade. Two guys batting from the right side, two guys batting from the left side, and Trout can spend more time at DH, which will probably help prolong his career at this stage.

Then there’s the lineup. Can you imagine some combination of Anthony, Trout, Abreu and Contreras batting in the top four slots of the lineup each night? I’m sorry, but opening the first inning with Roman Anthony and Mike Trout every game would be the biggest asses-in-seats move this franchise has made this decade.

Additionally, I also believe that if Trout moves somewhere, his new team is going to to see a bump in his production. Remember how, over the last couple of offseasons, much of the fanbase bemoaned the idea of Nolan Arenado possibly coming to Boston because he bat is cooked? Well, since moving to Arizona, Nolan Arenado is hitting .274 with a .781 OPS. Both are his highest marks in four years. (He also hit a clutch double for the D-Backs in the ninth inning last night and continues to contribute in key spots.)

The point here is that both guys are veterans closer to the end than the beginning who have never seen deep playoff success. They’re going to be some of the hungriest wolves in the pack if you put them in an environment where they have a real chance to win.

Lastly, from a pure theater perspective, how awesome would it be to have Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in the same division on the Red Sox and Yankees? You’re talking about two of the greatest right handed hitters of all time who are both 34-years-old and have each never won a World Series. The sense of legacy altering urgency on the line for both guys would inject something deeply significant into the rivalry we haven’t seen in a while.

And at the end of the day, this is the magic of a Mike Trout trade fantasy. It allows John Henry and the Red Sox to move the needle with real, palpable buzz in ratings, tickets sales, and team interest while not having to part ways with any of the high upside, young whippersnappers fans are already growing quite fond of here. It’s just a matter of figuring out if this is one of those times to pull the trigger in the real world when the formula in the spreadsheet says you shouldn’t.

Here's what happened in Mets Land on Wednesday, in case you missed it...

• Carson Benge committed a costly error, but came through with his first career walk-off hit, scoring A.J. Ewing in the 10th
• Manager Carlos Mendozapraised the "resilient" Benge for not letting the early miscue define his night
• Christian Scott didn't have his best stuff, but "fought" as the bullpen came up huge
• Benge and Scott spoke about the Mets' "indescribable" comeback, extra-innings win
• X-rays on Juan Soto's foot come back negative, and he's 'day-to-day' after fouling a ball off his foot
• Francisco Alvarezlanded on the IL with a right meniscus tear
• Mendoza called it a "big blow" to lose the catcher to surgery and weeks on the shelf
• WATCH: Down on the farm, Mitch Voit, Jacob Reimer, Eli Serrano III produced highlights
• WATCH: Ewing reflects on big league debut in an exclusive interview with Steve Gelbs

We’re going to try something a little different this time around on Sequence of the Week. Normally, we select a single at-bat or plate appearance from a given game to highlight the sequencing and execution from a Yankees pitcher. However, there were two encounters from the Yankees’ most recent win against the Orioles on Tuesday that stood out as the combined most pivotal moment from that game. Will Warren Houdini’d himself out of a huge jam by getting Taylor Ward to fly out and Adley Rutschman to ground into the inning-ending double play, so I thought we could look at the back-to-back ABs in a single analysis.

We join Warren with no outs in the bottom of the third. The offense just spotted him a 6-0 lead after scoring five in the top half of the frame, but some lousy defense is on the verge of handing it all back. Coby Mayo drew a leadoff walk, and consecutive throwing errors on ground balls by Jeremiah Jackson and Gunnar Henderson resulted in the bases being loaded with no outs — Ward and Rutschman the next two batters due up. We’ll start with Ward.

After getting traded from the Angels to the Orioles in the offseason, Ward transformed from a 36 home run power hitter into the most passive hitter in MLB. He generally will not swing unless a pitch is over the middle of the plate, which has led to Ward placing in the 100th percentile in walk and chase rates. The flip side of this extreme selectivity is that you can steal quite a few called strikes on either side of the plate as the opposing pitcher. Warren tries to leverage this tendency with a first pitch sinker. If Warren can start a sinker down the middle, he should bait Ward into swinging, allowing the pitch’s break down and in to move the ball away from the barrel and induce weak contact if not a whiff.

Unfortunately for Warren, he starts this pitch too low — an aiming point that isn’t going to tempt Ward into a swing. Ward leaves the bat on his shoulder as the sinker falls harmlessly below the zone for ball one.

Warren and Wells stick with a similar process of setting up down the middle and allowing the pitch’s movement to do the work. This time, they opt for a sweeper — if Warren can adjust his aiming point a little higher, they might be able to fool Ward into swinging this time, only for the pitch to break in the opposite direction as the previous sinker.

Instead, this pitch exits Warren’s hand aimed in off the plate meaning Ward decides not to swing early, only to watch the absurd foot-and-a-half of glove-side break sweep the pitch all the way across the plate to whisper across the outside edge for a called strike.

Given the execution of the previous pitch, Warren chooses to double up on the sweeper. Perhaps if he can start this one a little more over the plate, he’ll be able to extract a very rare chase from Ward.

Warren throws a pretty similar pitch to the prior sweeper, this one just a little higher and farther outside. However, given that it exits his hand looking like a ball above the zone, Ward once again eliminates the pitch early and earns the ball two call.

By this point, it seems like Warren and Wells have caught onto the fact that Ward simply is not going to offer at anything except something down the middle. It appears they change tack from getting Ward to swing to trying to pepper the fringes of the zone for called strikes. The first selection of this new strategy is to try backdooring a four-seamer for strike two.

Warren is just a couple inches away from the perfect pitch, but this four-seamer doesn’t quite have enough arm-side run to bring it back into the zone and the result is ball three.

Warren is one ball away from walking in a run. Ward and everyone else in the ballpark know what is coming here — a fastball in the zone. However, even with the count leverage firmly in Ward’s favor, Warren knows that if he can land a heater in the zone but away from the heart, it should result in a called strike.

That’s exactly what transpires, Warren dotting the inside edge of the zone for strike two. He once again uses Ward’s selectivity against him. Whereas other hitters might look to pull this pitch, Ward leaves the bat on his shoulder as it exits Warren’s hand aimed inside rather than down the middle.

Warren has done well to work his way back to a full count. He and Wells look to replicate the previous pitch and punch Ward out looking.

Instead, Warren throws the first meatball of the encounter, and Ward finally swings. Luckily for Warren, Ward is a little late and works underneath this four-seamer, sending a lazy fly out to right too shallow to get the runner in from third. This is where Warren’s offseason work to improve the shape of his four-seamer pays off. Last season, this pitch would have fallen off its vertical plane and likely resulted in an opposite field extra-base hit. However, with Warren adding induced vertical break to the four-seamer, this pitch holds its plane above the barrel of Ward’s bat and thus avoids damaging contact.

Here’s the full sequence:

That’s the all important first out, but Warren still has his work cut out for him. Stepping to the plate is the resurgent Rutschman, back to his best after two years in the wilderness. He’s the Orioles’ best player at the moment and spells double trouble for Warren given he can bat from the left side as a switch hitter.

The book on Rutschman says that you can reliably steal a first pitch called strike. Since his debut in 2022, Rutschman has the second-lowest first pitch swing rate in MLB behind only Steven Kwan at a paltry 12.7 percent. Particularly if you start him off with a breaking ball that begins as a ball, you’re pretty much guaranteed strike one.

Wouldn’t you know it, that’s exactly what Warren does here. He starts a sweeper aimed at the opposite batter’s box, Rutschman gives up early, and the glove-side movement breaks it pretty much to the middle of the zone for a backdoor called strike one.

One of the core tenets of pitching is to make strikes look like balls and balls look like strikes. Warren employed the former approach with the first pitch sweeper and now goes to the latter approach with this 0-1 changeup.

It’s a perfect pitch, looking like a fastball down Broadway before its late downward movement drops it off the table. Rutschman swings early and over the top, pounding the changeup on the ground to second for the desperately needed inning-ending double play to strand the bases loaded.

Here’s the full sequence:

I love how these two sequences showcased the homework that Warren, Wells, and I’m sure the rest of the Yankees pitching room does before every game. They exploited the Ward’s general selectivity and Rutschman’s passivity on the first pitch to get into better counts. With Max Fried departing Wednesday’s start early with elbow discomfort and Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole coming off elbow surgery rehabs, the Yankees need all the starting pitching depth they can get. Warren has been a top-20 pitcher in the league by FIP so far, giving the Yankees not only depth but a bona fide impact starter in the rotation.

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It’s the rubber match of what’s been a very competitive three-game set between the NL West-leading San Diego Padres and the host Milwaukee Brewers, who sit second in the NL Central. 

The Padres put an end to Milwaukee’s five-game win streak last time out, and now seek their fourth win in five games.

However, my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and free MLB picks gives the edge to the home team, particularly with the matchup on the mound.

Who will win Padres vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-138)

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to win the series on the strength of lefty Kyle Harrison, who’s 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA.

Harrison has been solid for the Brew Crew, having allowed two earned runs or less in all seven starts this season.

That’s a big advantage against San Diego Padres righty Griffin Canning, who was rocked in his last start, chased after 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals after surrendering seven hits and six earned runs.

Milwaukee is eighth in runs scored, while San Diego ranks Bottom 7 in baseball. The Friars have been even less potent of late, scoring just 15 runs across their last six games.

COVERS INTEL: Harrison has been brilliant in day starts in 2026, posting a stellar 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings while holding opponents to a .186 average.

Padres vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)

These teams have combined for nine runs or more just three times in the last 10 meetings, with the Under cashing in six of the last eight contests.

The Brewers have hit the Under with frequency, posting a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 overall. Not to be outdone, the Padres have an Under record of 8-2 over their last 10 tilts.

These trends make sense, given Milwaukee is 20th in OPS on the year while San Diego is 28th.

Padres vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Padres +133 | Brewers -138
• Run line: Padres +1.5 | Brewers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Padres vs Brewers trend

Each of San Diego’s last six games after playing the previous day have hit the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.

How to watch Padres vs Brewers and game info

Padres vs Brewers latest injuries

Padres vs Brewers weather

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The Dodgers offense, something still to be talked about in negative tones.

After the second consecutive World Series win, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told his wife that could alleviate some stress in April and May. His wife didn’t believe him, and his theory has not panned out so far this spring.

“I should’ve gotten it before”, he told Maddie Lee and the L.A. Times on Tuesday.

“What we know for a fact is every guy is going to have ups and downs,” Friedman said. “And this is some of the randomness of baseball. Sometimes those happen spread out, which allows your offense to thrive, and sometimes they happen concurrently, and that’s when you go into some real offensive lulls. And I feel like that’s more random than anything.”

Random or not, it has been a rough watch. Shohei Ohtani homered on Tuesday, but was out of Wednesday night’s lineup, and is expected to be out of Thursday’s lineup too. Manager Dave Roberts said the homer didn’t change his mind about the week going forward.

“I don’t like the bait and switch,” Roberts said. “Sometimes that might’ve been something where, you know you get a couple days off of hitting, and it might have freed him up [Tuesday]. You just never know. To go back on a pact or decision that we came upon or I came upon, I don’t like that.”

Former Dodger Jason Heyward has joined the team as a special assistant. Heyward recently retired, and stated that in his last few years of playing, he really became interested in the front office side of the game.

“As I came down the stretch over the last few years, it was watching different roles, having to make bullpen moves, having to make lineup matchups and things like that,” he said. “I’m like, ‘Let’s continue to have conversations on those and see what I can bring as a former player to that side of things.’”

For now Heyward’s role is fluid, although he was with the Dodgers team on Wednesday. Jack Harris of the California Post has more details on the hire here.

Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic also has some notes on Heyward’s rejoining the organization. Heyward is expected to be with the big-league club though the weekend and will be spending time with some of the Dodgers affiliates. He also could work with some of the young outfielders in the organization as he is expected to be on the field at times.

“He’s got the clubhouse part covered,” manager Dave Roberts said. “So part of it is working with the front-office guys and getting to see the other side of things and how it operates. (It’s) going to be very helpful for his growth and also for the organization.”

Below is a loop of this morning’s HRRR weather model simulating conditions over the northeast U.S. between Noon and Midnight:

As you can see, there’s going to be a strong southerly fetch of moisture off the Atlantic into eastern New England for several hours during the afternoon and early evening. However, around sunset, the orientation of the ocean fetch begins to change, and as it gradually gains more of an easterly component, the swath of rain will pivot and shift north.

The big question for today is does this shift occur quickly enough for the Red Sox and Phillies to wait out a bunch of rain and play the rubber match of their series tonight. The Red Sox are certainly hoping that’s the case as they have the pitching advantage on paper with Ranger Suarez going up against Jesus Luzardo, but as of now I’m thinking it’s more like than not the game gets postponed. There’s just way too much opportunity for banding to keep reforming over eastern Massachusetts over and over again this evening.

If the game does get rained out, the clubs will have to burn a mutual off day as the Phillies are not scheduled to come back to Fenway Park again this season. Interestingly enough though, they actually have one next Thursday, May 21st.

Talk about this and whatever else you’d like as the day unfolds, and as always, be good to one another.

SNY | Alex Smith: The Yankees lost for the sixth time in their last eight games on Wednesday, and that’s not even the worst news: left-hander Max Fried had to leave the game after three innings with left elbow posterior soreness. The pitcher himself told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com that it felt like a hyperextension and revealed that the injury made it difficult to warm up before each inning. Despite vowing to make his next scheduled start, this looks like an injured list situation. Stay tuned.

ESPN | Jorge Castillo: Aaron Judge is once again putting up numbers that would appear incredible for others, but seem pedestrian to him. But having recently celebrated his 34th birthday a few weeks ago, the amount of times he’ll be able to lead the charge in a championship run is dwindling. He’s aware of this, but even as the team outwardly displays more urgency than they have in years with their aggressive roster decisions, Judge insists that the level of urgency is the same as its ever been, and will be so long as he plays.

CBS Sports | Rotowire: Giancarlo Stanton, currently out with a calf strain, hasn’t been cleared to start running as the MRI he recently underwent didn’t show enough healing in the area. The slugger has been swinging the bat, but he won’t be able to return unless he can run, and he’s not there yet. He was replaced by Jasson Domínguez on the roster, but since the ‘Martian’ also went down, Spencer Jones has been playing in their place and figures to continue to do so until Stanton regains full health.

NJ.com | Randy Miller ($): Speaking of Domínguez, his return isn’t imminent, but there is some good news to report. He received a PRP shot in his ailing left shoulder, which he hurt last week while crashing against the wall while making a catch, and has shown no concussion-like symptoms whatsoever. He’s still a few weeks away, though.

The Giants beat the Dodgers 29-2 on Wednesday, with their two best players combining to hit 8-8 with a home run, four doubles, four walks, and a stolen base.

Unfortunately, that was in the Arizona Complex League. In the slightly more competitive, and slightly more meaningful Major League Baseball game, the Giants lost to the Dodgers 4-0.

It was a game where San Francisco got up to all their old tricks: feckless at-bats, wasted opportunities, heaps of strikeouts, and, of course, amateur hour blunders.

They wasted no time putting on that ugly show that we’ve seen so many times this year. In the first inning, Heliot Ramos drew a two-out walk against Shohei Ohtani (who is apparently the best pitcher in the world now), and Rafael Devers smacked a single to put runners at the corners.

But Bryce Eldridge, with the unenviable task of playing sporadically and seemingly only against aces, struck out on three pitches. It was the first out made with runners in scoring position for the Giants, and they would repeat that feat six more times. They would not get any hits.

From there, Ohtani mostly dominated the Giants. He retired the side in order in the second, and again in the fourth, and again in the fifth. The second of those two occurrences featured three strikeouts and just 12 pitches.

But the authentic sign that this was the Real Giants, and not those pesky imposters who somehow entered the day with four wins in five attempts against the defending champs, came in the seventh inning. The Giants already trailed 4-0, so they weren’t looking to erase the lead so much as get back into the game, so they’d have a chance against whatever non-Ohtani pitchers awaited them.

They gave themselves a chance, when Willy Adames smacked a one-out single, and Matt Chapman followed with one of his own, putting runners at first and second with just one out. Ohtani’s pitch count had crested triple digits, and the Giants were knocking on the door.

But they wouldn’t be the Giants if they didn’t do something silly, and not just in the outfield celebration way. Today’s brand of silliness? Adames forgetting how many outs there were, and taking off with reckless abandon when Drew Gilbert toasted a ball to Andy Pages, who could have jogged the ball back to the infield and still turned the double play.

Inexplicable.

Adames did not shy away from blunder, telling reporters after the game that, “That obviously is a mistake that can’t happen. That mistake is probably the most ashamed that I would feel in a game. I know that that can’t happen. It was my fault. That’s on me.”

Mistakes happen, but it’s hard not to read too much into it when the mistake is one of that level, from a player of that stature. It feels a touch emblematic for a season that has spent more time going off the rails than coming back on them. And given everything else that has happened this season — and what we know of the ship Buster Posey likes to run — it’s hard not to notice the optics here.

Meanwhile, Robbie Ray’s meatballs proved a tonic for LA’s struggling offense. Namely, for the players who have been struggling the most. The scoring began in the third inning when, a day after Giants ninth-spot hitter Eric Haase hit a pair of dingers, Dodgers ninth-spot hitter Santiago Espinal went deep, on a 2-1 fastball that could not have caught more of the heart of the plate if it’s name was “tee.” And with that, Espinal rounded the bases in a slow trot for the first time in 21 months.

Four pitches later, in the exact same count, Ray threw the exact same pitch, this time to Mookie Betts. The future Hall of Famer has, shockingly, been one of baseball’s worst hitters this year, and if he breaks out in the coming weeks, we’ll be able to look back at this moment as why. It was a home run derby pitch, and a home run derby outcome.

Los Angeles would score their other two runs just an inning later, when Kyle Tucker led off with a double and scored on a single by Teoscar Hernández who, in keeping with the theme, is having a career-worst year at the plate. In doubling down with the theme, Hernández moved into scoring position on a passed ball by not-Patrick Bailey, and took third when Miguel Rojas hit a single, his first hit since April 26. Hernández would then score on an Alex Call sacrifice fly.

In all, Ray would make it through just 4.2 innings on the night, ceding seven hits and two walks, while only striking out two. He simply wasn’t fooling anyone, and the lone bright spot of the game was how strong the pitching was once Ray left the mound, as Joel Peguero and Tristan Beck handled the rest of the game with ease.

But other than that, it was as ugly as ugly can be. And the way the season has gone, it just might stay that ugly until Josuar González and Luis Hernández save them in a handful of years…

Until then, though, there’s a series to win tomorrow. And that would be a nice thing.