Category: Baseball

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The baseball gods owe me one today. I started the week in the black before back-to-back donuts, so I’m cashing in the home-run luck card on a loaded Friday slate.

The projections are finally opening up with more than two dozen +EV names and MLB player props showing value, and a long list of pitchers begging to be faded.

Tyler Mahle in Sutter Health Park is a recipe for four-baggers, and Athletics' shiny new rookie Henry Bolte is going to test that.

These are my favorite home run bets for Friday, May 15.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Heliot Ramos	+475
Pete Alonso	+353
Henry Bolte	+750
💲Today's HR parlay	+13850

Home run pick: Heliot Ramos (+475)

Heliot Ramos and the San Francisco Giants have a great home run matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right field and Aaron Civale on the mound.

The Athletics starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn’t built to last. He also owns one of the lower ground-ball rates in baseball, and that 0.86 HR/9 feels more likely to climb toward his career mark of 1.30.

Like many pitchers, his numbers in Sacramento are also much worse than they are on the road.

Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today, according to the projections at Covers. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he’ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week.

Outside of the Coors Field game, this matchup carries the biggest total on the board. Bombs away, boys.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, NBCSBA

Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+353)

If Zack Littell doesn’t get pummeled today, I’ll be at a loss for words. He’s one of the worst starters in baseball and profiles as a perfect pitcher fade for home runs, sitting in the bottom 15 in BlastContact%, HR/FB rate, and xFIP.

It’s tough to go wrong with any Baltimore bat here, especially with one of the league’s worst bullpens likely being asked to cover four-plus innings. Littell worked as a bulk reliever last game and has thrown 69, 41, and 84 pitches over his last three outings. He’s also allowed multiple home runs in five of his eight appearances.

Pete Alonso is a buy down to +290 today, and this number is dropping quickly. Taylor Ward grades as the better +EV play according to Covers projections, but he’s launched just one longball this year and Alonso has been one of the better bats to back all season.

If you want to get really aggressive, I’d build a home run round robin with Adley Rutschman (+620) and Gunnar Henderson (+361). If you’re hunting home runs, the Orioles might be the best target on the board today.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, MASN

Home run pick: Henry Bolte (+750)

Henry Bolte was built for a Friday dinger. The three-game rookie who hit 12 homers in Triple-A last year in just 37 games has three hits in the big leagues, and already owns the second-fastest bat speed in the Athletics lineup.

Nick Kurtz is +265 to go deep, and there’s no way the rookie should be three times that price vs. Tyler Mahle and his awful HR/FB rate.

Every one of Bolte’s swings through two games has been classified as a fast swing (75+ mph), compared to hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sitting around 63%.

The kid has a clear home-run swing, the right matchup, and the ideal setting today. This might be the last time we see his HR price above +500, especially at Sutter Health Park.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, NBCSBA

Today’s HR parlay

Heliot Ramos	Bet Now +13850
Pete Alonso
Henry Bolte

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Toronto Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has baffled batters all season, and I expect the same result against a Detroit Tigers lineup that struggles with the splitter. 

Read on to see why with my Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers predictions and MLB picks on Friday, May 15. 

Blue Jays vs Tigers predictions

Blue Jays vs Tigers best bet: Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts  (-110)

Toronto Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has been incredible in his three starts since making his debut on April 28. 

He owns a 0.68 ERA, allowing just one run in 13.1 innings. The strikeout rate has been impressive too, going Over the number in back-to-back starts, racking up 10.15 K/9 in that stretch with a 36% chase rate. 

When Yesavage is pairing his fastball with that deadly splitter, he becomes nearly unhittable. 

He has a .176 batting average against this season on his splitter with a 38% whiff on the pitch. 

The splitter is Yesavage's put-away pitch, and it’s one that has troubled the Detroit Tigers' bats all season, posting a 39% strikeout rate and 41% whiff rate.

COVERS INTEL:The Tigers rank in the bottom five in strikeout and whiff rate against the splitter this season.  

Blue Jays vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)

Tigers starter Ty Madden throws a heavy dose of the sinker to right-handed batters. That’s a pitch that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit well this year with a .366 avg. I’ll bank on him bumping the slump in a plus-pitching matchup. 

For the final leg of my SGP I’ll bet on Yohendrick Pinango to go Over 0.5 hits. He’s been red hot with the bat, recording at least one hit in nine of his 13 career outings.

Blue Jays vs Tigers SGP

• Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Vladimir Guerrero Over 1.5 total bases
• Yohendrick Pinango Over 0.5 hits 

Blue Jays vs Tigers home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+350)

I’m making this a half-unit wager. 

Madden doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 92.7MPH on his pitches, which ranks in the 23rd percentile. 

His primary pitch to righties is a sinker, four-seamer combo. 

Enter Kazuma Okamoto, who has a team-high 10 home runs this year, while ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate.

He also owns a .596 xSLG with six homers against those two pitches this season.

Blue Jays vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -125 | Detroit +113
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+140) | Detroit +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125)

Blue Jays vs Tigers trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Tigers and game info

Blue Jays vs Tigers latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Tigers weather

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San Diego Padres starter Griffin Canning walked the bases loaded and eventually walked in the first run of the game in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on Thursday. Canning allowed three runs in the first and three more in the second before he was taken out of the game after just 1.2 innings of work. It was obvious from the start that Canning was going to struggle. Too many pitches were uncompetitive, and the near misses were not close enough to entice the Brewers batters to swing. When Canning was forced to put the ball over the plate Milwaukee took advantage and drove in runs. San Diego was down 6-0 after two innings and as exciting as the ninth inning that led to a Padres win was the night before, there was never a feeling San Diego had a chance in the 7-1 loss to Milwaukee. The feeling that the game was over before it started was not solely on Canning, although he was a big part of it, the lineup had a lot to do with it. The top three in the order, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado combined to go 1-for-11 in the game. Tatis Jr. struck out in three of his five at-bats. The four through eight batters in the San Diego lineup combined to go 6-for-19 with Nick Castellanos leading the group and the team with two hits. The Padres bullpen performed well allowing just one run over the final 6.1 innings and they gave San Diego a chance to get back in the game, but the rally never came. The Padres are on the road in Seattle today to take on the Mariners at 6:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Matt Waldron started the series against the Brewers on Tuesday but came out of the game after just 58 pitches due to ineffectiveness. He was given the opportunity to face Milwaukee for a second time in the series when he came out of the bullpen in the final game of the set. It is possible that was the final appearance for Waldron in a Padres uniform.

• Padres prospect Alex McCoy broke out of his slump with his first home run of May in a loss for the Fort Wayne TinCaps.

Baseball News:

• Jesus Luzardo and his teammate Kyle Schwarber helped the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Boston Red Sox.

• The St. Louis Cardinals did their best Padres impression, coming down to the final out of the game before mounting a comeback.

• The Los Angeles Dodgers knocked of the San Francisco Giants for the second time in as many days to split the series.

• The Chicago Cubs finally solved the Atlanta Braves and earned a win on Thursday.

• The New York Mets beat the Detroit Tigers, 9-4 and earned their first series sweep of the season. Detroit manager A.J. Hinch was not there to see it after he was thrown out of the game for arguing a play at third base,

• The Athletics traded the Seattle Mariners for Jose Suarez in an exchange for cash considerations.

• The Mariners placed catcher Cal Raleigh on the IL, but they were still able to continue their winning ways over the Houston Astros.

Only the Tulsa Drillers lost as the Loons and Tower Buzzers executed comeback wins, and the Comets outlasted the Isotopes in a shootout.

Player of the day

At twenty-six years of age, catcher Eliezer Alfonso already has vast experience in the minors, and early on in 2026, he’s putting up the best numbers he has ever had with performances such as this four-hit game yesterday against the Isotopes in a 12-10 win.

Alfonso now has a .312 batting average across 77 at-bats, significantly better than the .247 mark he showcased through two levels last year. How much of this he can sustain remains to be seen, but his production helps deepen this Comets lineup.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

A normal game that had a 2-1 score in favor of OKC after five innings turned out to be a dazzling slugfest on both sides, with the Comets getting the last laugh in a 12-10 win on the road. Given that the bullpens were responsible for all of the fireworks, Comets starter Christian Romero delivered quite the performance, allowing just one run in six full innings.

Offensively, the production was rather evenly distributed, with seven different batters recording multihit games and the same number getting at least one RBI. Out of all of them, catcher Alfonso gets the biggest praise as the only hitter to record four knocks on either side, but ninth-hole hitter Zach Ehrhard was also key with a pair of doubles and three RBI.

Double-A Tulsa

It’s difficult to overcome 12 free passes, as the Tulsa Drillers came to know in a 7-2 loss at the hands of the Cardinals. For the third time this season, left-hander Wyatt Crowell conceded at least four walks, moving to a 2-4 record with a whopping 2.01 WHIP.

As if the walks alone weren’t problematic, the Drillers also saw their opponents be successful in five out of six stolen base attempts, whereas Tulsa’s only stolen base came from shortstop Elijah Hainline. Speaking of onlys, Kendall George was alone in his multi-hit effort, scoring a run.

High-A Great Lakes

Without swinging the bat in the tenth inning, the Loons overcame a 2-1 deficit to beat the Whitecaps in walkoff fashion by a score of 3-2. Well, to put it more clearly, the Loons set up a situation in which a walk and a wild pitch were all they needed to take the win at home. They did so with the only hit, not even leaving the infield—a bunt single.

Allowing the two runs scored by the Whitecaps, both of them unearned, Nicolas Cruz finished the game with a blown save as he failed to protect a 1-0 lead, but also earned the win, his second of the season. The biggest performance from the bullpen, though, came from Matt Lanzendorfer, covering 3.1 scoreless frames in relief of starter Zach Root, who didn’t even finish the third.

Class-A Ontario

Maximizing your opportunities was the theme of the Tower Buzzers’ 8-4 win over the Giants, stranding fewer than half of the baserunners that their opponents did. For the fourth time this month, Ching-Hsien Ko left the yard, and he did so in a crucial spot, hitting a three-run bomb in the fourth back when the Tower Buzzers trailed this one four-zip.

Ko was also involved in the five-run rally in the eighth, scoring one of the runs as Ontario took the lead for the first time, capitalizing on Luis Carias’ performance, who delivered five scoreless innings in relief with 16 punchouts.

Transactions

Right-handed pitcher Logan Tabeling was placed on the 7-day IL by the Great Lakes Loons. Right-handed pitchers Tyler Gough and Alvaro Benoa were sent on rehab assignments to the ACL Dodgers by Ontario.

Thursday’s scores

• Albuquerque 10, Oklahoma City 12
• Tulsa 2, Springfield 7
• Great Lakes 3, West Michigan 2
• Ontario 8, San Jose 4

Friday’s schedule

• 3:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Jakob Wright) vs. West Michigan (Carlos Marcano)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Payton Martin) vs. Springfield (Liam Doyle)
• 5:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (River Ryan) at Albuquerque (TBD)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (Hyun-Seok Jang) vs. San Jose (TBD)

It’s Rivalry Weekend or whatever — 15 matchups that I guess link two teams that are supposed to be rivals together.

Sometimes, this is inherently fun, like when the teams in question are basically co-located and it’s a battle-for-the-jurisdiction of sorts (Mets-Yankees, Cubs-White Sox, and I guess even Angels-Dodgers, sorta). Sometimes, it’s a bit weirder, a la Twins-Brewers. And then there are the leftover teams, including Braves-Red Sox, Diamondbacks-Rockies, and maybe Blue Jays-Tigers (though maybe you feel that one is more justified).

Would you change any of these? Keep in mind that if you do, you have to find a new set of partners as needed.

Rivalry Weekend begins tonight. Some of the matchups are obvious: you needn’t ask why the Cubs and White Sox have beef with each other (not Italian beef. Disliking each other, they would not likely share a meal of that delicious Chicago specialty). Some are not: Detroit and Toronto may be close to each other, but there’s no real rivalry between the Tigers and Blue Jays. And some are somewhere in between. The Phillies will play the Pirates at PNC Park tonight, in a matchup that was once a ferocious rivalry, but now has become a less vicious affair. But rivalry never really dies. Or does it? That’s for you to decide and debate. Today’s question is: do you consider the Pirates a rival?

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers were off yesterday.

Jeff Wilson calls the Rangers walk-off win over Arizona the kind that could spark their otherwise so-so season.

Evan Grant’s Rangers stock report focuses on Jacob deGrom heating up and the streaky Jake Burger

There isn’t much else out there besides prospect list fun. Keith Law released his top 100 draft prospects.

And Konnor Griffin graduated from MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 prospect spot, so they named a new one.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a weekend series with the hated Astros tonight at 7:10 with Jack Leiter on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

Back on Wednesday, with evening showers threatening to spoil the Orioles’ series finale against the Yankees, the mounting clouds parted, and out from the mound shone a sliver of light: Kyle Bradish and his six scoreless innings. I jest, but Bradish had started this season with an ERA above five in his first seven starts, and this return to form was a massive bit of good news.

One good outing from Bradish doesn’t change the larger picture, though, which, for this starting rotation remains rather bleak. Presumptive ace Trevor Rogers, who carried a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts last season, has a 5.77 ERA. Three other O’s starters carry an ERA above five: Shane Baz, Cade Povich, and Chris Bassitt. Three starters are on the IL, for that matter: Povich, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer.

The rotation’s failure is especially galling because the front office set expectations high this winter. O’s GM/president of baseball operations Mike Elias touted an ownership group “that’s really enabling us to invest,” and promising that “Plan A” would be finding a top-tier pitcher. Top tier meant, according to our best intel at the time, an arm ike Dylan Cease, Michael King, Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez. The Orioles were confirmed to be in hot pursuit of multiple impact starters at the winter meetings in December.

Well, Plan A turns out to have belonged to someone else. Michael King took a hometown discount to stay with the San Diego Padres, accepting three years and $75 million. Suárez landed with the Boston Red Sox on a five-year, $130 million deal. Cease went to the Toronto Blue Jays for seven years and $210 million. Valdez signed with the Detroit Tigers on a three-year, $115 million deal. After watching all four opportunities disappear, the Orioles pivoted to veteran reliability. Chris Bassitt, 37, one of the last established veterans on the free-agent market, signed a one-year, $18.5 million deal with Baltimore in mid-February.

Not to dwell, but the gamble hasn’t gone great. The Orioles starting rotation’s numbers since Opening Day tell a tough story. They have the AL’s lowest WAR and a 5.04 ERA, worse than everyone but Houston and Colorado (Houston also due to injuries, Colorado due to being Colorado). Bradish can be an ace, but he can’t lift a bottom-quartile rotation producing bottom-quartile results into a contending outfit, right?

An analysis piece about the potential for improvement held by guys like Shane Baz and Trevor Rogers would be interesting; I wanted to write instead about the pitchers the Orioles didn’t sign. Maybe that’s just sour grapes. I thought it was a question worth asking, anyway.

Snapshots of the road not taken leave some room for jealousy. Start with the best. Which makes him the worst. Dylan Cease has been superb for Toronto: a 2.41 ERA, career bests in ground ball rate and strikeout rate—and on top of that, 75 K’s to lead all qualified AL starters. Cease is, in a word or two or several, everything the Orioles could use right now.

Michael King has been a very good acquisition for San Diego in parts of three seasons. He had an excellent first year in 2024—a 2.95 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and 173 innings. And although injuries limited him to just 15 starts in 2025, the righty is on track for what may be his best season yet. The right hander has a 2.63 ERA over 51.1 innings so far, and what BaseballSavant considers one of the best changeups in the game. To be sure, there are signs of overperformance that suggest King’s numbers will settle in around his career 3.18 ERA: a somewhat inflated FIP (3.69) and mediocre strikeout numbers (50). But with his 1.6 WAR, King would lead all current Orioles players in value.

The 30-year-old Ranger Suárez started off slow for Boston, posting a 5.02 ERA through his first three starts. But now he has a 2.44 ERA and what is considered one of the best fastballs in the game. In three of eight starts so far he’s tossed a stinker, allowing four runs apiece to Houston, San Diego and New York. But two of those three are great offenses, and he’s pitched a shutout in his last three starts.

Finally, Framber Valdez. The 32-year-old lefty has been less glowing for Detroit, with a 4.32 ERA and other indicators trending in the wrong direction. He posted a 3.67 ERA in six starts in April, but he got absolutely rocked in Boston a week-and-a-half ago, allowing seven runs in three innings. In particular, there’s evidence of concerning velocity dips on Valdez’s heaters. Based on ERA+, this is the first time since 2019 that Valdez is a below-average pitcher.

Would one of them have fixed Baltimore’s rotation? Yes, and it’s not even a hard question. Put it in terms of WAR. Cease, King, Suárez and Valdez each has a bWAR between 0.4 to 1.8. Right now, the only O’s starter who’s healthy and has a positive WAR is Kyle Bradish (0.1): all the rest are in the red. Thus, in WAR-terms, each of the four sought-after candidates would have made the rotation better; more, each would be the best starter on the staff.

Would the Orioles have paid this kind of money for any of them? This notoriously tight-fisted team really stretched itself over the offseason with $60-plus million extensions for Shane Baz and Samuel Basallo. Only King, whose team-friendly deal was probably only possible given his injuries the season before, would have been in the ballpark, so to speak.

Maybe that shows the limitations of this team’s approach to signing pitching. Maybe the Orioles were true players for these arms, and saw things they didn’t like. Maybe it was reasonable for them to presume, after Trevor Rogers’ ace-like season last year, that he and Bradish needed only a supporting cast to lead this outfit. But the rotation thus far has been in desperate need of someone who can give the team a reliable win every five days and keep the bullpen from working itself into the ground. As currently constructed, the rotation has room to grow, and a much higher ceiling than they’ve shown so far, but an ace might have papered over some of those cracks, and given this team room for error.

Happy Friday, everyone! Well, it’s been a dismal week to be a Tigers fan, that’s for sure. They were swept by the Mets, which is the first time all season the Mets have swept anyone. But they’re home again, they’re facing the Blue Jays this weekend, and hopefully they have some wins ahead.

If we want to look at the positive, though, we’re spotlighting our choice for Rookie of the Year, Kevin McGongile below, who continues to amaze us and prove he’s no fluke. In terms of broader baseball news, we discuss the CBA, the Rays stadium deal, jail time for Yasiel Puig, and Cy Young chatter around Shohei Ohtani.

Let’s just get right into it.

Detroit Tigers News

• This kid is good.

• He also joined the Have a Seat podcast to chat about his incredible debut.

• We see you, Riley Greene.

AL Central News

• Very scary news from a recent White Sox game.

• Excuse me, the White Sox are a .500 team now?
• The Twins are sending Matt Wallner to Triple-A.

MLB News

• Where do things currently stand with the CBA and a potential salary cap?
• This quiz to help select your perfect MLB team is very scientific and not at all silly. (I got the Royals! Let us know who you ended up with).
• Is Yandy Diaz one of the most underappreciated hitters in baseball?
• Jay Jaffe writes a joint memorial for Ted Turner and Bobby Cox and their impact on baseball.
• A little Fangraphs tangent about arm strength.
• Some injury updates from around MLB.
• What exactly is the “Tito Speedo” and how did it help turn things around for the Reds?
• Another May trade, this time between the A’s and the Mariners.
• Shohei Ohtani’s insane 0.82 ERA is sparking some Cy Young chatter.
• SI ranks all 30 MLB teams into watchability tiers and the Tigers land about where you would imagine.
• Yasiel Puig might be facing jail time over federal charges.
• The Rays have a tentative deal in place for their new stadium.
• Corey Seager is trying to “figure it out” amid a terrible slump.
• How are the father-son Mattingly duo in Philadelphia embracing their unexpected season? ($)
• We love a good baseball superstition. Cal Raleigh, before his injury, apparently busted his slump by showering in his uniform. ($)
• This is such a cool idea, honestly.

The Cubs are still having trouble scoring runs, as you likely saw in the team’s 2-0 win over the Braves Thursday evening in Atlanta.

But with Ben Brown’s second straight excellent start and solid work from the bullpen, two runs was enough to win the game and end the Cubs’ four-game losing streak.

The Cubs had their chances off Chris Sale in the early innings, with two singles in the first and second innings. But all that did was add to their RISP woes.

They had five hits over the first four innings, but nothing doing. Brown, though, was holding the Braves down even better than that — just one hit and one walk over four innings, with seven strikeouts. Brown threw 65 pitches (40 strikes) and just two runners got past first base.

Here are the seven K’s [VIDEO].

Here’s more on Brown’s outing [VIDEO].

And more from BCB’s JohnW53:

The last Cubs starter to depart after four scoreless innings was . . . Ben Brown, last week at Texas. He gave up no hits in that one; tonight, one.

Shōta Imanaga gave up no hits in a four-inning start on Opening Day of 2025 against the Dodgers at Tokyo.

Brown allowed one hit in 4.0 at home vs. the Braves on May 23, 2024, after Imanaga had yielded two at home vs. the Dodgers on April 7.

Javier Assad (four hits) and Marcus Stroman (two) turned the trick in 2022, for a total of seven such games in the last five seasons.

There had been 14 in all of 1901-2021.

The Cubs finally broke through against Sale in the sixth. Ian Happ led off with a walk. Seiya Suzuki hit a ground ball on which Ha-Seong Kim made an error, and the runners wound up on first and third.

Matt Shaw then grounded to short and beat a double-play relay, with Happ scoring [VIDEO].

Hoby Milner threw the fifth and sixth, allowing just one single. He had some help from Dansby Swanson on defense [VIDEO].

Phil Maton, who got hit pretty hard Wednesday evening, entered to throw the seventh, also allowing a single, but striking out two. In the top of the eighth, Happ gave the Cubs an insurance run with this long home run [VIDEO].

Just how long was that home run? Pretty darn long! [VIDEO]

Jacob Webb, who has been very good lately, threw the eighth, and like his predecessor relievers, allowed one hit, a single. Webb, last 10 games: 1.69 ERA, 12 strikeouts in 10.2 innings. He’s definitely going up in Craig Counsell’s circle of trust.

Thus Daniel Palencia got the save opportunity. He struck out the first two Braves in the ninth on six pitches, then allowed — you guessed it! — a single.

Palencia then retired Dominic Smith to end the game for his third save [VIDEO].

You can hear it on that clip — there were a LOT of Cubs fans in Atlanta. I think we’ll see that in most road series the rest of this year.

Here are some postgame remarks from Happ [VIDEO].

And here are Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

I concur with Counsell on his thoughts about Brown. As you know, I’ve been skeptical of Brown as a starter, but these two starts have certainly given Brown a lot of confidence, and adding new pitches has definitely helped him. It gives the Cubs the possibility of choosing Brown to do this again, and if they continue the rotation in order, his next turn would come up Tuesday against the Brewers at Wrigley Field.

One more note about Brown — check out these nasty curveballs, including the velocity and spin rate [VIDEO].

Everyone in the NL Central won on Thursday, so the Cubs’ lead remains 2.5 games over the Brewers and Cardinals. This was a solid team effort, especially from the bullpen. Here are some shutout notes from John:

This shutout, the Cubs’ third of the season, was their…

1,465th in the regular season since 1876
656th on the road in the regular season since then
183rd vs. the Braves
76th vs. the Braves on the road
34th vs. the Braves since 1966, their first year in Atlanta
13th at Atlanta, in 291 games there

The last had been July 18, 2015, by 4-0. Jon Lester gave up two hits in 7.1 innings, Hector Rondon retired two batters to end the eighth and Jason Motte walked one in the ninth.

Lastly, the Cubs pitchers did a pretty good job of holding down a really good Atlanta offense, giving them just nine runs in three games. The Cubs, though, scored just five runs in the three-game series. They’ll have to do better than that going forward.

The Cubs returned home to Chicago after this win and will take on the White Sox this weekend on the South Side in the first of two three-game series against their crosstown rivals (the other, at Wrigley Field, will be in August). The teams will open the three-game series Friday evening. Edward Cabrera will start for the Cubs and Sean Burke goes for the Sox. Game time is 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network (and CHSN with the Sox announcers).

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates begin a three-game set tonight, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at PNC Park. 

My Phillies vs Pirates predictions are targeting Pittsburgh to continue their winning ways against Philly with Braxton Ashcraft on the mound. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 16. 

Who will win Phillies vs Pirates today: -127 at Polymarket

The Pittsburgh Pirates have yet to face the Philadelphia Phillies in 2026, but they are riding a three-game winning streak against them dating back to last season. The Bucs also send one of their top arms to the hill in Braxton Ashcraft, who has been spectacular alongside Paul Skenes. 

Ashcraft owns a 2.77 ERA, and he's given up only one run across his last two starts. Ashcraft's last outing at PNC Park was 7.2 scoreless frames against the Cincinnati Reds. The righty has a 3.42 ERA at home, and he's throwing the baseball with a lot of confidence.

The Phils also have one of the worst offenses in the sport, and they didn't score more than three runs in any game in their most recent series against the Boston Red Sox. 

Aaron Nola, meanwhile, has a 5.48 ERA, and his ERA also sits at 4.94 on the road. The Pirates haven't had a ton of success against him, but Pittsburgh is sixth in runs scored, and they just scored seven runs on Thursday. 

COVERS INTEL: Nola has a career-worst .432 xSLG so far this season, and he's surrendered 11 earned runs across his last three road starts. 

Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (-122 at Polymarket)

Three of the last four meetings between these two have cashed the Under in runs, and there are signs that Nola is trending in the right direction, which strengthens this play.

The righty has given up just three earned runs across his previous two appearances. I do expect the Bucs' impressive offense to give him some trouble, but he's shown more composure lately, which should help him limit serious damage. 

Philadelphia's bullpen has also been better lately, and they've hit the Under in four straight contests. As for Pittsburgh, Ashcraft's consistency is crystal clear, and he often brings his best each week.

While he hasn't faced this Phillies lineup a lot, he's only allowed more than two earned runs once this season.

With both starters in good form and Pittsburgh's pen also holding their own lately, this contest screams value with the Under.  

Phillies vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Phillies +122 | Pirates -127
• Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-178) | Pirates -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Phillies vs Pirates trend

Four of the last five meetings between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have cashed the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Pirates.

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• Rangers have lost four consecutive league matches for only the second time in the club's history, after a run of five successive defeats from October to November 1983.
• Including the curtailed 2019-20 campaign, Rangers have only lost their final league game in one of the past 17 seasons (W9 D7), a 2-1 defeat at Kilmarnock in 2018-19.
• Falkirk have lost just one of their past five home league games against Rangers (W2 D2), although that was their most recent, a 6-3 defeat in April.
• Rangers have only lost one of their past 48 top-flight matches against Falkirk (W39 D8), a 1-0 defeat in December 2006 under Paul Le Guen.
• Falkirk have lost four of their past five league games (W1), including both of their latest two. They are yet to lose three in a row in the league this season, last doing so in the top flight in March 2010.

Here's what happened in Mets Land on Thursday, in case you missed it...

• Manager Carlos Mendozaprovided positive injury updates on Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez
• A.J Ewinghit his first career major league home run
• The Mets smacked five home runs and Nolan McLean locked in for a series-sweeping win over Tigers
• Juan Soto shook off an injury scare and snapped out of a recent offensive funk with a go-ahead RBI single and solo homer
• McLean tossed seven strong innings in New York's comeback victory over Tigers
• The Mets showed resiliency, battling back in all three games against Tigers for first sweep of season
• Soto and the Mets are ready to renew their Subway Series rivalry with the Yankees starting on Friday night
• Jorge Polancoreceived a platelet-rich plasma injection a month ago
• The "Baby Mets" and McLean gave a glimpse of what the team can still be in 2026 — and beyond
• Jonah Tong continued his up-and-down season in Triple-A with a disastrous outing
• 5 things to watch and series predictions of Round 1 of the Subway Series at Citi Field

The Yankees have been sputtering a bit of late, losing five of their last six games while also dealing with injuries, including one to Max Fried that the extent of is not known yet. However, it almost always could be worse, and we just need to look at this weekend’s opponent for an example of that.

This weekend, the Yankees are headed across the city, as they go to Queens for a three-game set against the Mets. Not only do the Mets currently sit in last in the NL East with one of the worst records in baseball so far, they’ve also been dealing with a mess of injuries. Expected regulars Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, and Kodai Senga are all currently on the IL. Juan Soto has been one of the only regularly good bats for them, but he’s already had an IL stint and recently had another scare after fouling a ball of his foot (though he did homer yesterday).

However even with those struggles, the Mets always seem to get up for Subway Series matchups, and both fanbases certainly do, too. Before the action gets going tonight, here’s a look at this weekend’s expected pitching matchups.

Friday: Cam Schlittler vs. Clay Holmes (7:15 pm ET)

In his last outing, Schlittler had a gem wasted, as the Yankees’ offense and bullpen couldn’t hang on after the young ace allowed just two hits and no runs. There’s not much more you can say about Schlittler other than that he’s been awesome, leading the league in a number of statistics (namely ERA, FIP, WHIP, and H/9 entering play yesterday). We’ve seen how he gets up for the rivalry against the Red Sox, so let’s see what he does for this cross-city matchup.

The second year of the Holmes as a starter experiment is going … pretty well. The former Yankees closer has a 1.86 ERA in 48.1 innings across eight starts. He has yet to allow more than two runs in any one start, which is especially solid considering he’s made it through at least five innings in every start he’s made. Anecdotally, the Yankees also sometimes seem to struggle against pitchers who had down notes while a member of the Yankees, so we’ll see what happens this time around.

Saturday: Carlos Rodón vs. TBD (7:15 pm ET)

On Saturday, Rodón will be making his second start back off the injured list. His 2026 debut definitely saw some rust despite some good velocity, as he walked five batters in 4.1 innings. That partially caused him to give up three runs to the Brewers despite only giving up two hits. At least, hopefully that was only rust. You still can’t judge much on only two outings, but we’ll get a better sense of how he looks after this game.

At time of writing, the Mets haven’t announced who will be going in the second game. As mentioned, they’re a bit injured, and previous times at this spot in their rotation, they’ve gone with Huascar Brazobán as an opener. 2025 All-Star David Peterson lost his spot in the rotation with an awful start to 2026, but he’s been getting some work as a “bulk guy,” so he could follow Brazobán.

Sunday: Ryan Weathers vs. Freddy Peralta (1:40 pm ET)

Last time out, Weathers flirted with a no-hitter at Camden Yards, only for things to go to pieces after he left the game, leading to a Yankees’ loss to the Orioles. After an up-and-down start to his Yankees career, Weathers has been very solid in recent weeks. Over his last four starts, he has a 1.88 ERA and a 2.77 FIP.

Peralta was one of the biggest name pitchers to move over the offseason, as the Mets acquired him in a trade with the Brewers. He’s been good so far, especially of late, posting a 3.10 ERA and a 3.67 FIP over his first nine starts as a Met. As was the case in Milwaukee, he’s not the type of guy to go 7-8 innings, as his longest outings of the season have been 6.0 innings flat, without ever starting the seventh. However, he can still go out there and strike a bunch of batters out in bunches.