SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 08: JJ Wetherholt #26 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates after scoring a run on an error by Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning at Petco Park on May 08, 2026 in San Diego, California. Four runs scored on the play. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cardinals have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, suffering losing seasons in two of those years. After losing 84 games last year, they traded away veterans Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and Sonny Gray. They now have the second-youngest lineup and fourth-youngest pitching staff, and have gotten off to a great start, winning 11 of their last 16.
Kansas City Royals (19-25) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (25-18) at Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
By most offensive metrics, the Cardinals are nearly identical to the Royals, hitting .240/.321/.390 as a team, yet they have scored half a run more per game. JJ Wetherholt is a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, although he is hitting just .213/.327/.277 this month. Not only has he starred offensively, he is among the top players defensively, by Outs Above Average.
After years of disappointment, former first round pick Jordan Walker has turned a corner as is seventh in baseball with a 166 wRC+. Shortstop Masyn Winn is hitting .343/.400/.457 against lefties. Lefty Victor Scott II is hitting just .125 in 85 plate appearances against righties.
Michael Wacha starts the opener for the Royals. He has never lost to the team that made him a first round pick in 2012, going 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals. The Cardinals signed Dustin May last winter, and after two rough starts to begin the year, he has a 2.55 ERA over his last six starts. Opponents are hitting .302 against his 97 mph fastball, but he has a 31.4 percent whiff rate on his sweeper.
Noah Cameron has given up 20 runs in 25 innings over his last five starts. Kyle Leahy made 61 relief appearances for the Cardinals last year, with a 3.07 ERA. he tossed five shutout innings, allowing just two hits, but four walks against the Padres in his last start.
Andre Pallante had a 5.31 ERA last year in 31 starts, the fourth-highest among qualified starters. He relies a lot on a sinker/slider/curve combo that helps him net a 55.7 percent groundball rate. Vinnie Pasquantino is just 1-for-11 against him in their career matchups.
The Cardinals’ bullpen has a 4.70 ERA, fifth-worst in baseball. Riley O’Brien made a career-high 31 appearances last year at age 30, and now leads the National League with 13 saves, although he has three blown saves. He throws a hard sinking fastball that generates a 61 percent groundball rate. Kansas City native Ryne Stanek joins the Cardinals bullpen with a 98 mph fastball. JoJo Romero has a reverse split, with leftie shitting .233/.303/.433 against him.
The Cardinals have a young, hungry team with a lot to prove, and Busch Stadium is always a difficult place to play. The Cards have been surprisingly mediocre at home – they’ve split their first 20 games there – but the Royals have been a dreadful road team. The Royals will need to show they can win away from Kauffman Stadium and stop the bleeding after a dreadful sweep in Chicago.
May 6, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2), San Diego Padres left fielder Jackson Merrill (middle), and San Diego Padres second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. (right) celebrate the San Diego Padres victory over the San Francisco Giantsat Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Marshall-Imagn Images | Scott Marshall-Imagn Images
We’ve entered into a bizarro world where a series against the Astros can be viewed as a “get right” series for the Mariners. Back in April, the four-game sweep of Houston pushed Seattle to a game under .500 and 1.5 games back in the AL West. This latest series win in Houston pushed Seattle to a game under .500 and one game back in the AL West. The M’s will have to find a way to keep this momentum going without Cal Raleigh in the lineup which makes their margin for error much thinner than it already was.
Somehow, the Padres have been keeping the Dodgers honest in the NL West. Sure, Los Angeles has struggled a bit, especially recently, but San Diego has also been one of the luckiest teams in baseball this year. The Friars have outperformed their Pythagorean record and BaseRuns record by four games, the second largest gap in baseball behind the Rays. It hasn’t been all luck — the team’s bullpen is elite, helping them close out close games — but the lineup has been the clutchiest in baseball by a pretty wide margin.
After sweeping the Mariners in San Diego back in April, the Padres are in the driver’s seat to win the 2026 edition of the Vedder Cup. Should the Mariners manage to sweep the Padres this weekend, tying the season series, the first tiebreaker to determine the Cup winner is run differential — San Diego won that previous series by a combined seven runs. The second tiebreaker is EV (short for Exit Velocity and Eddie Vedder) – the team with the highest exit velocity recorded on a hit will win the Vedder Cup. Dominic Canzone’s 114.1 mph double currently holds the lead should that second tiebreaker come into play.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Jackson Merrill
CF
L
176
25.0%
8.5%
0.127
80
Fernando Tatis Jr.
2B
R
180
25.0%
10.0%
0.045
78
Manny Machado
3B
R
172
22.1%
12.2%
0.150
81
Miguel Andujar
DH
R
118
19.5%
2.5%
0.193
126
Xander Bogaerts
SS
R
169
16.6%
10.1%
0.158
117
Gavin Sheets
1B
L
128
20.3%
7.0%
0.229
112
Nick Castellanos
RF
R
90
28.9%
4.4%
0.129
55
Ramón Laureano
LF
R
159
31.4%
10.1%
0.164
94
Freddy Fermin
C
R
86
19.8%
9.3%
0.054
50
The Padres lineup was supposed to run through their quartet of stars: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackson Merrill. Thus far, only Bogaerts has been above league average; he’s currently running a 117 wRC+, his highest mark since 2023, his first season in San Diego. The biggest mystery is what happened to Tatis’s power; he hasn’t hit a home run yet this season despite maintaining excellent contact quality on his batted balls. Maybe he’s taken his new role as a part-time second baseman too seriously, turning himself into a light-hitting middle infielder.
Randy Vásquez has spent the last few seasons as a reliable, innings-eating back-end starter for the Padres. Between 2023 and ‘24, he had the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified starters, though his ERA was a decent 4.27. All of a sudden, he’s throwing two ticks harder this year and he’s more than doubled his strikeout rate. The extra oomph on his pitches is obviously great, but it’s particularly helpful for Vásquez because of his seven-pitch repertoire. Discerning which of those seven pitches is heading towards the plate is a lot easier when you only have to worry about a 93 mph fastball rather than 95 mph heat. With the threat of a true, bat-missing heater in his back pocket, his entire arsenal becomes more effective because he has so many looks he can present to the batter.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Lucas Giolito (2025)
145
19.7%
9.1%
9.3%
37.8%
3.41
4.17
Logan Gilbert
50
25.5%
4.9%
14.3%
37.7%
3.78
3.90
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
44.7%
52.1%
93.3
82
73
109
0.387
Changeup
18.3%
26.9%
81.7
107
86
138
0.299
Curveball
1.2%
5.8%
78.6
106
Slider
35.8%
15.1%
86.0
96
97
111
0.310
With injuries ravaging their starting rotation, the Padres signed Lucas Giolito a few weeks ago with the hope that he’d be able to ramp up pretty quickly to provide some relief for the pitching staff. After four minor league starts, he’s ready to go and San Diego will be activating him for his season debut on Saturday. Giolito was a solid mid-rotation starter for Boston last year in a return to form after a few miserable years marred by injury and ineffectiveness. It wasn’t too long ago that he was the ace of the White Sox rotation, though that ceiling is probably past him. His best pitches are a tight slider and a straight changeup. Both of those secondary offerings play off his fastball to earn their deception which means the deterioration of his heater has some outsized knock-on effects on the rest of his repertoire.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
George Kirby
57
20.3%
6.2%
8.2%
57.0%
2.84
3.26
Walker Buehler
36.1
19.6%
7.6%
9.1%
46.9%
5.20
3.64
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
22.7%
17.3%
93.9
90
33
127
0.340
Sinker
24.3%
8.7%
93.8
94
Cutter
16.3%
33.7%
89.9
92
60
86
0.379
Changeup
1.2%
17.6%
88.9
82
Curveball
12.7%
20.0%
77.3
108
113
61
0.389
Slider
22.7%
2.7%
86.7
99
Sweeper
16.3%
2.1%
82.7
99
From a previous series preview:
I can only assume that Walker Buehler’s 2019 and ‘21 seasons are doing a lot of heavy lifting for his reputation as he’s bounced between three different teams over the last two seasons. He put up 5.1 and 5.6 fWAR in those two campaigns but underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. He hasn’t been the same since and he was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. His four-seam fastball was one of the best in baseball at his peak but it’s lost a ton of its carry and just isn’t an effective pitch anymore. He’s tried to adjust by deepening his repertoire and mixing in all of his secondary pitches a lot more often. It didn’t work in Boston last year, but the Padres desperately needed starting pitchers this spring, so they’re giving Buehler another shot to see if he can figure things out.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Athletics
22-21
0.512
—
-5
W-L-L-W-L
Mariners
22-23
0.489
1.0
+16
L-W-W-L-W
Rangers
21-22
0.488
1.0
+0
W-W-L-W-W
Astros
17-28
0.378
6.0
-48
L-L-L-W-L
Angels
16-28
0.364
6.5
-32
L-W-L-L-L
It’s “regional” rivalry weekend across baseball which means the two Texas teams are playing each other and the A’s are rekindling their Bay Area rivalry with San Francisco in Sacramento.
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 24: Atlanta mascot Blooper waves a flag after an Atlanta Braves win following the conclusion of the MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves on April 24th, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Red Sox have returned to the Dead Ball era.
“Sell the team” chants have taken over NESN.
Alex Cora was fired at 10-17. Chad Tracy is at 8-8. Craig Breslow is probably fielding calls about Aroldis Chapman, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Garrett Whitlock…guys who can help winning clubs right now. And Boston travels to face the only team with 30 wins. Baseball being what it is, they could sweep, of course. But this is going to be a tough series. The pitching matchups might favor Atlanta despite the Red Sox having good pitchers too. Chris Sale won’t be pitching so at least one of their aces misses the weekend series.
Connelly Early takes the ball Friday night against Spencer Strider. Early is coming off an excellent outing against Tampa Bay, 7.0 scoreless innings in their lone win in three games against the AL East leader. Strider began the year on the IL and, after being knocked around in Colorado for 3.1 inning,s shut down the Dodgers for 6.0. Maybe he’ll be rusty again. Kinda of an even-odd thing. One hit, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts even during an Ohtani slump is nothing to sneeze at.
Payton Tolle, aka Mass Pike, has made three starts on at least five days rest and one start on four days rest. Those three have included two gems and one kinda OK start. In the one on four days he wasn’t as sharp and issued four walks. Hopefully the Braves are a good matchup for him. They are actually the 23rd ranked offense in walks but 24th in strikeouts. So maybe this will be a defense-heavy workload. Durbin to the rescue? Bryce Elder is a righty who strikes people out but not at the elite level. He has 53 Ks in 54.2 innings but struck out 8 and 9 batters, respectively, in his last two starts. He does have 20 walks over that time which is…fine. He only averages 87 pitches per outing so if they work a few deep counts (I know, I know) maybe they can hold him under the 6.0 inning mark. He has reverse splits and this year righties are hitting .268/.297/.310 with lefties at an insane .130/.246/.236. Basically every lefty becomes Caleb Durbin. Not great for Tracy’s matchups.
Brayan Bello just pitched on Tuesday. He could be the TBD after an opener again. That’s four days rest. Jake Bennett can’t be recalled yet. The opener is working out for him. Whatever is causing him issues at the start of the game just doesn’t seem to be there. With 6.1 and 7.0 innings and 1 run allowed each time the Red Sox should keep the arrangement going as long as they can. Grant Holmes is the weak link of the series. Not that it matters when a guy with an ERA of nearly seven can shut down the lineup and given Wednesday. He’s a righty with essentially even splits. He’s given up an OPS of .680 to same-sided hitters and .678 to lefties. He hasn’t made it into the fifth in three of his last five starts.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been on the IL. With any luck they’ll miss him.
Drake Baldwin is having a tremendous season with 11 homers and 37 runs scored (leading the league) while slashing .295/.378/.520.
Matt Olsen has 14 homers and 15 doubles.
Old friend Dom Smith is hitting .358/.386/.543 in limited playing time.
Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michale Harris II…basically the entire lineup is dangerous. Must be nice.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday, May 15: Connelly Early (3.16 ERA / 4.35 FIP) vs. Spencer Strider (2.89 ERA / 3.75 FIP)
Saturday, May 16: Payton Tolle (2.78 ERA / 2.80 FIP) vs. Bryce Elder (1.81 ERA / 3.09 FIP)
Sunday, May 17: TBD (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Grant Holmes (4.35 ERA / 5.19 FIP)
When/Where to Watch
Friday, May 15: 7:15 PM ET on NESN
Saturday, May 16: 7:15 PM ET on NESN
Sunday, May 17: 1:35 PM ET on NESN
In the meantime, imagine Craig Breslow slowly turning into a Batman villain…
HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 04: Jim Crane of the Houston Astros attends the game between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder at Toyota Center on April 04, 2025 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Much of the Astros issues tie back to Crane’s decisions (or lack thereof). Is he willing to step up and fix them, or is he willing to eat his words?
“I made a statement the other day that as long as I’m here the window’s open. So I’ve got to live up to that.” Those are the words of Astros owner Jim Crane, as said to PaperCity Magazine’s Chris Baldwin back in February 2024.
Crane takes his belief that the “window is always open” very seriously. He is competitive, he wants to win. He’s also a very intelligent, very shrewd businessman, and he isn’t blind to what is going on with his franchise right now.
After dropping 3 of 4 at home to the Seattle Mariners, the Astros find themselves in a very tenuous position. They are now 11 games under .500 as we approach Memorial Day. Memorial Day is the unofficial quarter marker of the season, and the time when records start to matter. Being 10 games under .500 at Memorial Day is Red Alert.
There has been no end in sight for the litany of injuries this team continues to suffer from. With 14 players currently on the IL, the Astros’ depth has been seriously tested yet again, and with suboptimal results. For a team that entered the season without SPs Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter, it then lost Cy Young finalist Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and for a time Tatsuya Imai (more on him shortly).
The depth the team built in the offseason with starting pitching has been ripped through. Ryan Weiss, brought over from the KBO after several successful seasons there, has flopped. Jason Alexander, who pitched well for the team last season after they grabbed him off waivers, has also flopped. Colton Gordon, who pitched 86 sometimes good/sometimes not so good innings for Houston last season, has flopped as well.
Nate Pearson, signed in the offseason recovering from surgery with the idea he could get an opportunity to start, has already been converted to a reliever in the minors while rehabbing. Kai-Wei Teng, who succeeded as a reliever for Houston thus far, is being tried as a starter and the results have not been as strong. Cody Bolton has spot started and worked as a multi-inning reliever with middling results (4.76 ERA), and those middling results are among the most positive the team has received from is depth so far.
Crane did not want to risk exceeding the tax line in the offseason, so GM Dana Brown was forced to work in the margins. So far, those decisions have mostly failed.
The biggest moves the team made in the offseason were the trade for SP Mike Burrows and the signing of free agent Tatsuya Imai.
Burrows is a young pitcher who only had one season of MLB experience and showed some promise. He was tremendous all spring. As soon as the regular season began, he suddenly became homer prone with an inability to finish off batters. Burrows currently has allowed the most hits in the league (60 in 50.1 IP) and his HR/9 rate has increased from 1.2 last season to 1.8 this season. He has allowed 10 HR in 50.1 IP this season after allowing 13 in 96 IP last season. His walk rate from last season is about the same, but his K/9 rate is down almost a full strikeout from last year (9.1 in 2025 to 8.2 this season).
Tatsuya Imai was the top pitcher coming from Japan this season and one of the top pitchers on the free agent market. A surprisingly soft market for Japanese players allowed the Astros to swoop in and get him at a significant discount. Imai has tremendous stuff, and was a highly accomplished pitcher in Japan.
Imai dominated all spring, but like Burrows, once the regular season started, something went haywire.
Imai looked strong in the first 2 innings of his first start of the season, then experienced Steve Blass syndrome (can’t find the strike zone) in the 3rd inning against the Angels, walking a pair of guys while giving up 3 hits and had to be lifted. He was strong in his second start, and threw 5.2 scoreless with 9K. In his third start, he recorded only one out and walked 4 of the 7 batters he faced. He went on the IL with ‘arm fatigue’ afterwards.
Imai struggled to find the strike zone while rehabbing in the minors, but was called up anyway despite clearly not being ready because the Astros are desperate for starters. Imai was put in a bad spot, and predictably failed as he allowed 6 ER in 4 innings, with 5 hits, 3 walks and 2 home runs allowed. Despite having an arsenal with 5 pitches, he chose to only throw 2 of them, his fastball and his slider. The slider is what often did him in.
Perhaps the Astros could have made other decisions with their pitching, but the budget didn’t allow it. Despite Framber Valdez’ need for a personal therapist at times, he is still a top pitcher and workhorse who has pitched among the most innings in baseball the last 4 seasons. Considering the contract he eventually settled for, it seemed like a player the Astros could have re-signed if they wanted to. Maybe he had worn out his welcome in Houston, but for a team that for the past 2 seasons has been decimated by pitching injuries, he was going to be a difficult person to replace. Clearly, they have been unable to fill that void as well.
In the bullpen, Josh Hader had a setback after being shut down in August last season, and still has not returned. Of course, the team acted as if his return to start the season was a guarantee all offseason, and then his timeline suddenly started getting pushed back further and further. Hader is now expected to return approximately May 24. When it comes to a closer you have a $95M investment in, it is wise to be careful with his rehab. It also would have been wise to make better contingency plans.
Bryan Abreu, expected to fill his role as closer while Hader rehabbed, had a sudden loss of velocity and command, and started the year terribly. He was eventually removed from the closer role and put in lesser leverage situations to regain his form and confidence. While his velocity is still not where it should be from a total velocity or consistency standpoint, he has been improved in his performances of late. That said, he still doesn’t look like the Abreu who has been among the most dominant relievers in baseball the last 4 seasons.
Bennett Sousa, who assumed the mantle of the 8th inning setup man last season when Hader went down before he also went down with elbow inflammation, missed the start of the season rehabbing from an oblique strain and is now back on the IL after 5 appearances with elbow inflammation.
Steven Okert and Bryan King, both coming off career seasons, have not been as effective as last season. Their bullpen has been the worst in MLB this season.
Crane is well aware that the Golden Era of Astros baseball was rooted in pitching and run prevention. The Astros have the worst pitching in all of baseball right now, they lack the ability to fix it from within, and they have not shown that they can stay afloat until they get some of their horses like Brown and Javier back from injury.
The time for this team to act is now, before the hole they dig is too big to escape. Even in a weak division, they are burning runway in a hurry. At least one Wild Card team is likely to have a better record than the AL West division winner, possibly more. While the standings say the Astros aren’t so far back they can’t make it up, being the team that surrenders the most walks and most runs is certainly says the road will be too difficult to hoe.
Jim Crane now finds himself at a crossroads. He has chosen to have lame ducks at both manager and GM. While there is no indication that Joe Espada has lost the clubhouse or that players are tuning him out, there is also no way of knowing if Dana Brown truly has the authority to make the moves necessary to try to get this team turned around.
With an important amateur draft coming up for Houston in which they have 8 picks in the first 6 rounds, including picks 17 and 28 overall, the Astros have a chance to add some quality talent to their rebuilding farm system. Right now, 5 of Houston’s top 8 prospects are in A ball or lower. Their only two Top 100 prospects are both at Fayetteville, and both very young (Kevin Alvarez is 18, Xavier Neyens is 19).
A ‘rebuild from within’ for this team is essentially 3 seasons away at a minimum, and since Crane has stated he isn’t about a rebuild, it certainly seems something is going to be done. The question is what and in what direction?
Would Crane bite the bullet on this season, trade off veterans with 1-2 years left on expensive deals (Walker, Hader) and players the team is unlikely to be willing to re-sign to expensive, long-term deals (Pena) to shed payroll, get prospects, and re-tool in the offseason with a different group and make another run immediately?
Would the window that is always open simply be repaired? Would it be under construction for multiple seasons?
That one year vs multiple years situation is the key to the Astros doing the absolutely unthinkable, and that is trading Yordan Alvarez.
Trading the super-elite star player rarely works in baseball, because the prospects you get back – even if they pan out – very rarely pan out to be the same quality of player who is a total game changer. Boston tried this with both Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers and they are in last place in the AL East with a team that cannot hit. The Nationals did this with Juan Soto and despite 3 of the prospects they received panning out, are still under .500 and traded one of those players away already (Mackenzie Gore).
The Astros made a smart play in trading Kyle Tucker, who they knew they couldn’t re-sign. They got back a solid player in Isaac Paredes who has become a fan favorite. Hayden Wesneski has spent most of his time on IL. Cam Smith was the big prospect who they got in return, but they have pushed him too fast because they didn’t have another option for RF and his development has stalled.
In a smarter timeline, Cam Smith would have played last season at Triple A and then been promoted at some point this season. We aren’t in that timeline.
Crane is a very proud man. He does not take losing well, and he doesn’t take it lightly. However it isn’t a stretch to say that his decisions of payroll restriction on a team that has printed money for a decade and leaving his GM out to dry again (see Click, James) have led to what is mostly an untenable situation with his baseball team.
He can empower Dana Brown to make the moves that need to be made to improve the team (which could mean parting with a player like Walker, Paredes or Pena), though it’s usually hard to trade this early. He could give Brown the green light to cut some dead weight and bring up a player like Alimber Santa who is pitching very well in the pen for Sugar Land but isn’t on the 40-man roster yet.
He could give Dana Brown the direction to demote players who are badly underperforming, like Cam Smith, and give other players (Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb; Joey Loperfido when he returns from IL) a regular opportunity while letting Cam rediscover his swing in the minors. This seems to me like a simple, logical decision, but may be one Crane has to force.
Crane is not afraid to assert himself, nor is he afraid to insert himself into the day-to-day operations of the team (see Verlander, Justin; Greinke, Zack; Abreu, Jose; Montero, Rafael) for better or worse. Crane is not afraid of “the bucks stops here”, and it is something that made him the best sports franchise owner in the history of this city.
Yet here the Astros are, 45 games into a 162 game season but already 11 games under .500 and with a pitching staff both decimated by injuries and in disaster mode, needing answers and direction. There seems to be only one person who can give it to them.
He is also the person who writes the checks.
If Crane wants to stand on his word of “the window is always open”, he is going to be the one who needs to roll his sleeves up and make it work. He has done it before.
It’s decision time. Which way will Crane go? We probably find out very soon.
The New York Metschase rate is nearly 32%, well above the league average. That should play directly into Schlittler's strengths as he enters this game with one of the highest chase-inducing rates in the league.
On the other side is Clay Holmes, facing the Yankees since the first time after leaving them this past offseason.
While it's not exactly quantifiable, the Yankees' familiarity with him matters. From a more tangible perspective, his groundball-dependent profile should struggle against a lineup that leads the MLB in barrel rate at 11.7%.
I am fairly close to market here, but lean towards under 7 with a projection of 6.8 runs.
A short-handed Mets lineup is going to really struggle to generate offense against Schlittler for most of the same reasons listed above. Schlittler doesn't give free passes, so you have to get contact against him.
I'm simply unsure how the Mets get much. While I think the top-heavy portion of the Yankees gets after Holmes (especially the second time around), his heavy groundball-inducing profile will have plenty of success against the bottom of the lineup.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 17-16, +0.16 units
Over/Under bets: 22-12, +12.59 units
Yankees vs Mets odds
Moneyline: Yankees -150 | Mets +135
Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+118) | Mets +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under: Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110)
Yankees vs Mets trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.
How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info
Location
CitiField, Flushing, NY
Date
Friday, May 15, 2026
First pitch
7:10 p.m. ET
TV
AppleTV
Yankees starting pitcher
Cam Schlittler (5-1, 1.35 ERA)
Brewers starting pitcher
Clay Holmes (4-3, 1.86 ERA)
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 28: Nolan Gorman #16 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated after hitting a home run during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rayni Shiring/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Nolan Gorman has been a long term project in the Cardinals franchise with some obvious upside. The obvious upside, of course, is the fact that when he makes good contact you could build a statue of his pose and the homerun. If you put a Gorman bomb up against a sunset, you might actually watch the Gorman bomb. Fans that have watched for any amount of time know that those statue-esque shots have not been coming often enough in the last few years.
The calendar has ticked by into mid-May and Gorman is running an 89 wRC+. He’s been more valuable than one might think because of a pleasant development on defense. There are games, and I can’t believe I’m going to say this, that he looks like he may be hanging out with the ghost of Nolan Arenado at third base to guide him. He’s currently in the 84th percentile in defensive value for all big leaguers. And, while defensive stats can notoriously flutter during a season, the eye test tells you he’s clearly on a different plane this season.
The purpose of this article is not to suggest that Nolan Gorman is a disaster. He’s not. He’s accumulated 0.4 fWAR thus far. While that’s not what anyone hoped for his value coming into the season, he’d end up at a passable 1.6 fWAR for the season at this pace. That’s playable, if disappointing. The bigger question comes if he remains Nolan Gorman, defensive specialist at the end of the year. The offensive rebuild clearly has four building blocks of varying degrees in Walker, Herrera, Wetherholt, and Burleson. Winn has been fairly good as well and his defense at short is going to keep him around for a while at a minimum.
Can you run a below average offensive third baseman long term if your goal is to compete for titles? The answer obviously comes with a multiplicity of variables around Gorman, but it’s not a strong case. So, what’s Gorman been doing this year to be stuck at his 89 wRC+? It’s a tale as old as time (well, as old as Gorman’s career anyway).
In short, Gorman is whiffing too much, but not providing enough power to offset his swing and miss game. He’s striking out 28.8% of the time, which is actually down a hair so far from his career high of 33.8% of the time last season. Can you be successful striking out at this rate? Well, let me introduce you to a gentleman named Jordan Walker who is striking out 28.4% of the time this season. So, the obvious answer is yes you can be successful, but you have to capitalize on your power at a healthy rate.
This is the perplexing part of Gorman’s game. The foundation for power is there. Statcast has him in the 94th percentile for Launch Angle Sweet Spot. Essentially, he’s launching the ball at an angle that should be doing damage. This stat tends not to be very predictive, but Statcast has tracked him at the very top of baseball in this metric his entire career. In other words, his swing shape produces the right angle of contact for big damage.
So if the K% isn’t great but also doesn’t prohibit him from being valuable offensively and his swing shape is producing the right kind of contact, where’s the hangup? He’s pulling the ball more than ever, hitting line drives and flyballs at career norms, so many of the normal sources aren’t much different than his career averages. What is different is how he’s currently handling changeups. The league has an obvious attack pattern and is exploiting it to the max.
Nolan Gorman is facing changeups over 20% of the time. That’s double his career averages, and has a ghastly -5.2 run value on them according to Fangraphs. For all his Launch Angle Sweet Spot brilliance, Gorman is only squaring up pitches in the 15th percentile and producing slightly below league average exit velos. The Cardinals have vastly limited his at bats against lefties this year, but righties are getting ahead of him and finishing him off with changeups that he’s just not handling well.
The Faustian bargain with players like Gorman is that their whiffs will be offset by prodigious damage on pitches they do handle (see Jordan Walker again). At this moment, Gorman is not holding up his end of that bargain and pitchers have found a weakness that they are currently maxing out in their pursuit of securing outs from Nolan Gorman.
Because whiffs will always be his chokepoint on offense, Gorman is already operating with a ceiling on his capability. This is not new. To put a fine point on the end of this article though, how much longer will the Cardinals stick with him at these production rates? He’s accrued over 2000 PA at the MLB level and is 1% below league average at a 99 wRC+. This is, once again, not a crisis point, and there’s no one at his position that is beating down the door to St. Louis (can Blaze Jordan be credible over there??). So, they’re unlikely to make a move in the immediate future.
But, Gorman has done nothing to disabuse the notion that he’s not a core piece going forward. He has time to adjust this season, but I think it’s fair to ask at this point if he’s capable of adjusting to the level that the Cardinals need him to adjust. Hitting is extremely difficult, but if Nolan Gorman is going to stick around, he needs to start handling changeups better.
So, let’s hear it. What do the Cardinals do if Gorman continues producing offensively at this rate for the rest of the year? Thanks for reading!
I always like to start previews with my favorite prospect. That’s often someone the Phillies have no chance at, but not this year. A reclassicification of draft eligibility made this year’s mystery box my favorite, most intriguing option. Grindlinger is a left handed Outfielder and Pitcher and is a potential 1st/2nd rounder in both roles. He also has a perfect name for Philly, who would certainly love someone to grind it out in either role for a decade or more. The catch is Grindlinger will be one of the youngest players to be drafted in league history as he’s currently 17 years old as of April 16th. He’s already 6’3” and 185lbs and at barely 17 there’s a chance a little more growth may be coming. He’s committed to University of Tennessee for College. He reclassified to the 2026 draft in mid-February, so I don’t get the sense he plans on sticking to that commitment barring a drop in draft stock
The draft stock is tough to gauge, as Baseball America mocked him to the Phillies in their first mock draft and didn’t have him at all in their second and in their third mock, they have him going 20th. He was the #3 prep prospect in the 2027 class, so it’s reasonable he’d still be a first rounder here. Teams also seem to be flip-flopping a bit on what role he’s better in. At first it was solidly pitching, but consensus seems to have moved to hitting. I’ll write up both here.
I’ll start with Pitching, since that seems to have taken a bit of a backseat in his profile, I’ll give more of a Cliff Notes version. This is still a very viable path for him in the pros though. As a Pitcher, he already has an Above-Average Fastball that sits mid-90’s and he can get up to 96 to go along with a low 80’s Slider and Changeup. Both could end up Above-Average or better. Grindlinger throws from a 3/4 slot and the 4-seamer shows good carry and arm side tail. He has a good track record of throwing all 3 for strikes, though like all Prep Pitchers all 3 pitches need some work on consistency and command. The ceiling is probably #2 Starter.
As a hitter the hype train has really gotten rolling for Grindlinger. To be honest, I get it for the potential, but there are also some warning signs that I think will limit how high he can go in the draft. Everything is projection at this point. While that’s true for all prep players, it’s especially so here. He’s well beyond his years at the plate showing patience and elite contact rates in and out of the zone. He simply doesn’t swing at things he can’t put in play. This sounds great, but he’s also facing fellow prep arms with a mixed bag of secondaries. Part of the concern stems from his bat speed being below average, the other part comes from him having a flat bat path and a likely trade off trading contact for power in pro ball. He already manages average power, but he’s likely destined for Right Field as a pro where his 55 grade speed and plus arm can best play up, and teams want to get above-average or better power out of that position ideally. There’s a little Bryson Stott to that hitting profile, though here you’d also be projecting additional muscle adding to his bat speed some and to his power overall.
Every draft pick is a risk and projection, but what I like about Grindlinger is you can see 2 development paths to value as a top of the rotation lefty Starter and as probably more of a 5-6 hole hitter with solid defensive potential. Plenty of guys have failed at both those roles, but having that backup plan, especially if he lasts all the way into the comp picks is plenty valuable.
UNITED STATES - MAY 19: Joyous New York Mets mob third baseman David Wright (3rd left) after Wright hit an RBI walkoff single off New York Yankees' closer Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the ninth, with two out, to score catcher Paul Lo Duca and give the Mets a 7-6 victory over the Yankees at Shea Stadium. The Mets won the first game of the Subway Series, but the rival teams will battle it out twice more over the weekend. (Photo by Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News Archive via Getty Images) | NY Daily News via Getty Images
Since the arrival of interleague play in 1997, there have been nearly a regular season’s worth of regular season games played between the New York Mets and the New York Yankees. These 152 games have included some of the many feats and oddities you’d expect from a season’s worth of play, from three-homer games to wacky walk-offs to proper routs. They’ve also seen certain players distinguish themselves from the pack, whether for specific in-game accomplishments or cumulative totals.
As another edition of the Subway Series is set to begin—this time featuring a whole new cast of Mets ready to make their mark on the crosstown rivalry—it seems a fitting moment to check in on the state of the series’ record book, from all-time leaders to single-game leaders to Statcast superlatives. This is by no means an exhaustive list, but rather a sampling of some of the standout highlights. So let’s hop on board, stand clear of the closing doors, and take a brief ride through 29 seasons of Subway Series baseball…
Most Hits, GAME Brett Gardner (5) – June 26, 2009
Rookie Brett Gardner gave Citi Field a rude introduction to the Subway Series. The 25-year-old hit leadoff, going 5-for-6 with three singles, a double, and a late homer off Elmer Dessens in the veteran right-hander’s second game as a Met. Pesky as ever, all three of Gardner’s singles came on softly-hit flairs which found grass just beyond the infield, while his homer barely cleared the fence in the right-field corner. The Mets’ only offense in the 9-1 loss came courtesy of Gary Sheffield’s 508th (and penultimate) career home run.
Most Home Runs, GAME Francisco Lindor (3) – September 12, 2021
The only three-homer game in Subway Series history belongs to Francisco Lindor, who accomplished the feat in the midst of a relatively underwhelming first season in Flushing. Lindor carried a .222 average and .696 OPS into the night, but all that seemed to disappear as he hit a trio of clutch homers (two of them putting the Mets in the lead) during an emotional subway series on the 20th anniversary of September 11, 2001. Lindor got his first curtain call, his first of many iconic Mets moments, and his only career three-homer game to date.
Most RBI, GAME Carlos Delgado (9) – June 27, 2008
Forget Subway Series records — Carlos Delgado’s nine-RBI effort in the first game of a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium tied a Mets franchise record. As if that wasn’t impressive enough, he tallied all his RBI in just four innings. In the top of the fifth, he laced a two-run single. In the sixth, he crushed a grand slam to the back of the bleachers in right-center field. In the eighth, he punctuated the performance with a three-run homer off future Met LaTroy Hawkins.
Most Strikeouts, GAME Jacob deGrom (12) – August 13, 2018 / Dillon Gee (12) – May 30, 2013
Both of these 12-strikeout performances came on the road at Yankee Stadium, and contrary to what you might guess, Gee’s outing was actually far more dominant than deGrom’s. The 2018 Cy Young Award winner allowed three runs (two of them earned) on five hits and two walks in 6.2 innings of work, while Gee went 7.1 innings and allowed just one run on a solo shot from Robinson Canó.
Gee has another entry on the Subway Series leaderboard, as his start on July 2, 2011 is tied with Tylor Megill’s on September 10, 2021 for most whiffs (18) by a Met, but Masahiro Tanaka has them both beat with 22 on May 14, 2014. The day after that Tanaka masterpiece, the Yankees were set to face Gee’s spot in the Mets’ rotation, but the right-hander went down with a lat strain. The Yankees instead faced a 26-year-old making his MLB debut named…Jacob deGrom. In classic deGrom fashion, he ended up on the short end of a 1-0 pitchers’ duel. It was the first 1-0 finale in Subway Series history, and the only one to date.
Most Hits, CAREER 1. Derek Jeter (131) 2. Alex Rodriguez (65) 3. David Wright (62) 4. Robinson Canó (61) 5. Brett Gardner/José Reyes (53)
Jeter laps the field here. Literally. His 131 Subway Series hits are more than double any other player’s total, accumulated over 88 games played (which also rank first). A-Rod, Wright, and Canó are neck-and-neck in the battle for second place, with 7 of Canó’s 61 hits coming in a Mets uniform. But just as predictable as Jeter’s ranking atop this leaderboard was Wright’s ranking atop the Mets’ side. The 12th of his 62 hits, a soaring single to straightaway center off Mariano Rivera, represented one of the most memorable walk-offs in franchise history,
Most Home Runs, CAREER 1. Aaron Judge (14) 2. Derek Jeter/Alex Rodriguez (13) 3. Jorge Posada (12) 4. Pete Alonso/Robinson Canó/Curtis Granderson/Mark Teixeira (11)
Judge’s solo homer off Justin Hagenman on July 3 last season moved him into a tie with Jeter and A-Rod, and his two-run homer off Brandon Waddell two days later made him the Subway Series’ new home run king. Alonso was climbing up the leaderboard at a breakneck pace, clubbing 11 homers in 32 games against the Bombers. This likely would have been a two-man race for years to come if Alonso had returned to the Mets, but instead he has taken his Yankee-killing talents to Baltimore, picking up right where he left off with a pair of homers in his first series back in the Bronx earlier this month. That leaves Judge to continue adding to his total relatively unthreatened. Canó and Granderson, meanwhile, sneak into the leaderboard with help from stints on both side of the rivalry.
Most Stolen Bases, CAREER 1. Derek Jeter (19) 2. José Reyes (14) 3. Roger Cedeño/Alfonso Soriano (9) 5. David Wright (8)
This is a Roger Cedeño stat. Jeter, Reyes, and Wright all had over 200 Subway Series plate appearances to climb their way onto this leaderboard. Soriano had 99. Cedeño had 71. In 17 Subway Series games, Cedeño slashed .323/.371/.492. Five of his nine stolen bases came during 1999 (a season in which he swiped 66 bags for the Mets) and one of those five was a steal of home. The other four came in his second stint in New York from ’02-’03. Still, the accumulators win out, with Jeter and Reyes unsurprisingly leading the pack.
Most Saves, CAREER 1. Mariano Rivera (20) 2. Armando Benítez/Edwin Díaz/Billy Wagner (5) 5. Aroldis Chapman/Francisco Rodríguez (4)
Behind Rivera, who accounts for over 25% of saves recorded for either side in Subway Series history, a trio of Mets closers are tied for second place despite varying degrees of effectiveness. Wagner pitched to a 4.66 ERA in 9.2 IP, Benítez maintained a respectable 3.00 ERA in 15 IP, and Díaz was absolutely dominant, posting an 0.96 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 9.1 IP. A pair of fireballers in Chapman and Rodríguez are tied at fifth. The players with the most likely chance to enter the leaderboard this season are ex-Yankees Luke Weaver and Devin Williams, each of whom picked up a Subway Series save against the Mets last season.
Longest-projected Home Run (Statcast era/since 2015) 1. Aaron Judge (457 ft) – August 16, 2017 2. Aaron Judge (453 ft) – August 23, 2022 / Gary Sánchez (453 ft) – August 30, 2020 4. Giancarlo Stanton (443 ft) – September 12, 2021 / Juan Soto (443 ft) – July 24, 2024 6. Francisco Lindor (436 ft) – September 12, 2021
Judge’s mammoth 457-foot blast off Robert Gsellman on August 16, 2017 landed in the third deck in left field, and landed him a share of the tenth spot on the list of longest homers hit at Citi Field (his teammate Stanton has the No. 2 entry on that list). Lindor’s second homer in his three-homer game sits at sixth as the highest Mets entry on this leaderboard, one of two dingers included from that game along with Stanton’s game-tying shot a half inning later. Judge and Sánchez split second place, each with a homer well up the left-center-field bleachers at Yankee Stadium (though for Sánchez’s homer, a go-ahead grand slam off Drew Smith in August 2020, the bleachers were eerily empty). Soto, meanwhile, ranks with a moonshot to Monument Park off future teammate Sean Manaea.
Fastest Pitch (Pitch-tracking era/since 2008) 1. Aroldis Chapman (102.7 mph) – August 15, 2017 2. Aroldis Chapman (101.9 mph) – June 9, 2018 3. Aroldis Chapman (101.6 mph) – June 9, 2018 4. Aroldis Chapman (101.5 mph) – June 9, 2018 5. Aroldis Chapman (101.3 mph) – June 9, 2018 6. Bobby Parnell (101.1 mph) – July 1, 2011
The five fastest pitches all belong to Chapman, with four of those coming in one inning to a trio of 2018 Mets including José Reyes, José Bautista, and Devin Mesoraco. But the single fastest pitch he threw in a Subway Series game resulted in a game-ending grounder off the bat of Juan Lagares ten months earlier. The sixth-fastest (and top ranked by a Met) belongs to Bobby Parnell, who recorded what’s listed as a 101.1 mph fastball to strike out Nick Swisher and end the top of the eighth inning in a Mets loss.
June 14, 2009 was not Johan Santana’s day. The left-hander entered the start with a 2.39 ERA and exited with a 3.29 ERA after allowing nine runs in three innings of work. The Yankees didn’t stop there, racking up four more runs off Brian Stokes and getting another pair off Jon Switzer, marking the third-to-last outing of the latter’s career. Jeter went 4-for-4, while Hideki Matsui and Robinson Canó both went deep. Somehow, it was not the Mets’ most deflating loss of the series, as two days earlier an infamous pop-up popped in and out of the glove of Luis Castillo. But the Mets have more Subway Series wins by a 10+ margin, with 12-2 victories in 2000 and 2024. Each featured a trio of homers — the first from Mike Piazza, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Derek Bell, and the second from Francisco Alvarez, Tyrone Taylor, and Harrison Bader. The first game also came in an Al Leiter/Roger Clemens pitchers’ duel which turned out one-sided.
Longest/Shortest Games Longest: Yankees 4, Mets 2 (f/10) (4 hours, 36 minutes) – June 14, 2002 Shortest: Yankees 4, Mets 2 (f/7) (2 hours, 14 minutes) – July 4, 2021
There’s a cruel irony in the fact that the longest and shortest games in Subway Series history — two polar opposite games in some respects — ended up with the exact same result. The ’02 marathon’s length was no doubt aided by Mets starter Steve Trachsel, often referred to as “The Human Rain Delay” for his slow pitching pace. The Mets led 2-0 at Shea Stadium by virtue of a walk and passed ball in the third inning, but the Yankees clawed back with an RBI single from Bernie Williams in the eighth and another by Derek Jeter in the ninth to tie it. A homer from then-Yankee Robin Ventura in the top of the tenth was the deciding factor. The ’21 sprint was aided by the short-lived seven-inning-doubleheader rule, allowing the low-offense contest (the two teams combined for seven total hits in seven innings) to conclude abruptly when the seventh-inning stretch would normally occur.
If there’s one area of the Subway Series where the Mets have properly outdone the Yankees, it’s walk-offs. The Mets have twice as many walk-off victories as the Bronx Bombers, with the total reaching double digits as of Brandon Nimmo’s double off Nick Ramirez in June 2023.
But I close the journey through Subway Series records with this stat not only for its uplifting Mets slant, but also because there is one related feat still up for grabs: no player has racked up multiple Subway Series walk-offs.
This season, there’s a prime candidate in Amed Rosario, who oddly enough already has a walk-off at Yankee Stadium against the Yankees during a chaotic covid scheduling snafu. Has anyone ever had a walk-off hit for and against the same team in the same stadium? Some cities’ teams shared ballparks back in the early 20th century, but those teams were divided by league in a time before interleague play. It would come at the cost of a Mets win, but if Rosario pulled it off, he could earn himself a distinction in baseball history as well as Subway Series history.
May 6, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates designated hitter Marcell Ozuna against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Marcell Ozuna is a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates, a fact that surprised me. The past two years, the Pirates largely used Andrew McCutchen as their designated hitter/spot outfielder, but they apparently grew tired of Cutch’s farewell tour and decided to bring in Ozuna instead. It was clear that would be a downgrade in character, but it has also been a downgrade in performance as well. (Not that McCutchen is tearing it up in Texas.)
After two straight seasons with an OPS over .900, Ozuna’s numbers decreased with the Braves in 2025. Entering his age 35 season, the Braves gambled that Ozuna would continue to decline, and based on early returns, they may have been correct. (I really don’t like it when the Braves make correct decisions.)
Not sure how much longer you can keep justifying the Marcell Ozuna signing. Current OPS of .578. #Pirates
With the Pirates off to a good start to the season, there’s already calls to cut bait with Ozuna, and call up prospect Jhostynxon “The Password” Garcia.
The Password hits 3 HRs in a game in his Triple-A return from injury. Marcell Ozuna better pick it up. Because Garcia is a phone call away. pic.twitter.com/dhiC0vuKuj
— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) May 12, 2026
There’s every chance that Garcia is going to be terribly overhyped because of his name. (This relates to my theory that we’d feel differently about Orion Kerkering if he didn’t have an exotic name) But promising seasons like this one are few and far in between for the Pirates. Considering every day brings Paul Skenes one day closer to becoming an ex-Pirate, the team may not feel they can waste a chance at the playoffs hoping that Ozuna can turn things around.
Trivia
Last week’s answer: On August 23, 1993, the Rockies earned their second ever win in Philadelphia thanks in part to a home run by Charlie Hayes. WC Phil was correct.
This week’s question: Who is the Phillies’ franchise leader in home runs hit at PNC Park?
A matchup of aces – Disadvantage: Phillies?
On Sunday, we’re scheduled to get a great pitching matchup as Zack Wheeler is due to go against Paul Skenes. However, Wheeler wasn’t at his best when going head-to-head against other top pitchers last season.
April 8 vs. Chris Sale: 5.1 IP/ 5 ER
May 29 vs. Sale: 5.1 IP/6 ER
July 12 vs. Yu Darvish: 6 IP/4 ER
August 2 vs. Tarik Skubal: 6 IP/3ER
That was probably a fluke more than anything, since Wheeler has pitched in plenty of important games over the years, and come up big more often than not. But it would be nice if he could come close to what Mick Abel did last year when he pitched six shutout innings in opposition to Skenes, allowing the Phillies to eke out a 1-0 win.
Additional thought about the series
Despite the Pirates rarely fielding good teams, the Phillies have had quite a bit of trouble winning games at PNC Park recently. The Phillies have lost their last three series in Pittsburgh, including last year when they were swept in a three-game series in June.
They may not find victory any easier to come by this season, since this appears to be the most talented Pirates squad since their last playoff appearance in 2015. Thanks in part to some new arrivals, the Pirates rank fifth in the majors in runs scored. Prodigy shortstop Konnor Griffin has looked the part in the early going; free agent imports Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have added much needed power to the lineup. And while he may be a disaster in the field, Oneil Cruz is dangerous in the leadoff spot.
Oneil Cruz goes the other way and breaks the scoreless tie with his 10th home run of the year! pic.twitter.com/MuLyg9r6Yg
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 10, 2026
The Pirates’ starters have also been good with veteran Mitch Keller and second year man Braxton Ashcroft forming a strong top of the rotation along with Skenes. But the bullpen is a different story. Closer Dennis Santana appears to have been demoted with former Phillie Gregory Soto getting the bulk of save opportunities now. Soto is off to a good start, but we all know he is good for a meltdown appearance every so often.
The Phillies’ key to victory may be keeping the game close in the early going and then striking in the later innings. (Though I certainly wouldn’t mind it if they scored a bunch of early runs either.)
Who will win Reds vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-135)
Andrew Abbott's profile is littered with red flags. He ranks in the 28th percentile in xERA, the 15th percentile in xBA, and the 15th percentile in K%. He's allowing a lot of good contact and not missing many bats, which is a bad combination.
Factor in the Cleveland Guardians are a Top-8 offense in average and wOBA vs. lefties and there is a lot working in their favor.
COVERS INTEL: Tanner Bibee has allowed an average of 1.9 earned runs over 20 home starts since the beginning of last season.
Reds vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-115)
Bibee has allowed five runs at home through five starts, and seven over his last eight dating back to last season. He is a nightmare to deal with in Cleveland.
His excellent play should continue against a Cincinnati Reds offense that ranks 26th in wOBA vs. righties on the road.
While Abbott is not pitching overly well, he should benefit from playing in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. He has allowed five runs through three road starts this season – including nearly six shutout innings against the high-powered Cubs.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 17-7, +7.28 units
Over/Under bets: 10-13-1, -4.11 units
Reds vs Guardians odds
Moneyline: Cincinnati +115 | Cleveland -135
Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-175) | Cleveland -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Reds vs Guardians trend
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.35 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Guardians.
How to watch Reds vs Guardians and game info
Location
Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date
Friday, May 15, 2026
First pitch
7:10 p.m. ET
TV
Reds.TV, CleGuardians.TV
Reds starting pitcher
Andrew Abbott (2-2, 4.47 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher
Tanner Bibee (0-5, 4.17 ERA)
Reds vs Guardians latest injuries
Reds vs Guardians weather
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All eyes will be on the Subway series between the New York Yankees (27-17) and New York Mets (18-25) this weekend. Last year, the two teams split the season series 3-3.
The Yankees enter on a cold streak. New York is 1-5 in the last six games and 2-6 in the past eight. The Yankees have been outscored 19-14 in the past six games. It's the worst stretch of the season for the Yankees as they enter the Subway series. This will be the seventh-straight road game for the Yankees and despite the losing skid, New York's pitching staff ranks first in ERA on the road (2.80) and second in OBA (.209).
The Mets are coming off a three-game series sweep of the Tigers and 7-3 over the last 10 games. New York is 8-4 this month and starting to make up ground on their early slump. In May, the Mets are hitting .226 (23rd) and 12 home runs (tied 13th), but it's been about the pitching staff. The Mets' pitchers own a 2.67 ERA (4th) and have 117 strikeouts (tied 5th) and the 7th-ranked OBA (.213).
Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Yankees at Mets
Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM EST
Site: Citi Field
City: Flushing Yard, NY
Network/Streaming: Apple TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Yankees at the Mets
The latest odds as of Friday:
Moneyline: New York Yankees (-157), New York Mets (+130)
Spread: Mets +1.5 (-143), Yankees -1.5 (+119)
Total: 7.0
Probable starting pitchers for Twins at Mets
Friday's pitching matchup (May 15): Clay Holmes vs. Cam Schlittler
The Yankees’ Aaron Judge is hitting .268 with 42 hits and 97 total bases over 157 at-bats
The Yankees’ Trent Grisham is hitting .175 with 24 hits and 28 strikeouts over 137 at-bats
The Mets’ Juan Soto is hitting .269 with 28 hits and 49 total bases over 104 at-bats
The Mets’ Bo Bichette is hitting .218 with 38 hits and 33 strikeouts over 174 at-bats
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Yankees at Mets
The Yankees are 24-20 ATS this season
The Mets are 17-26 ATS this season
The Yankees are 24-18-2 to the Under this season
The Mets are 24-16-3 to the Under this season, ranking first in the MLB
The Yankees are 12-12 ATS on the road and 17-6-1 to the Under, ranking first in the MLB
The Mets are 7-14 ATS at home and 10-9-2 to the Over
The Mets are 3-0 and on the ML as a home underdog, one of three undefeated teams
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Twins and the Mets
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Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday's game between the Yankees and the Mets.
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Mets on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Mets at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Over on the Game Total of 7.0
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In episode three of this series, I began a two-part exploration of the encounter between Toronto’s George Bell and Boston’s Bruce Kison on June 23rd, 1985. Having visited Kison side of things, we will now consider the life and times of George Bell.
In the late 1970s scouts all around major league baseball began descending upon the Dominican Republic, which had suddenly been identified as highly lucrative territory. The DR was home to countless talented young ball players and those ball players due to the country’s dire economic conditions were highly exploitable.
With the unemployment rate around 40% teams realized they could sign players for a lot less than American prospects asked for. And if those Dominican players did happen to get signed by a major league team, they were sent to the states socially isolated by the language barrier and dependent upon agents who were often crooked and looking to swindle ’em all over again.
A cruel irony recalled by George Bell, one of those young Dominican players, was that while navigating this labyrinth of shameless exploitation, he was the one looked at with suspicion. American players found any reason they could to dislike him. His English wasn’t polished enough, he was too this, not enough that, didn’t play the game the right way.
In 1982, while playing for minor league Syracuse, Bell stepped in against Lynn McGlothen, an 11 year Major League vet pitching in AAA ball in the hopes of one last call up. In a game years earlier while pitching for the Cardinals, McGlothen beamed one New York Mets batter then brushed back another three innings later, then hit that batter too. The intent was so transparently clear that the Mets Dave Kingman charged the mound straight from the dugout.
McGlothen did not hesitate to throw at a batter if he had the inclination and he seemed to resent George Bell for the same superficial reasons everybody else did. Bell was a hotdogger. It was decided. McGlothen drilled him in the face, fracturing his cheek and jawbones. While his teammates stormed the field to exact revenge, Bell arrived on the ground certain that his career in baseball, his one chance at a better life was over.
“He’s dead,” Bell thought of McGlothen, not because Bell would kill him or because his teammates would, but because fate would one day catch up with him.
Two years later, McGlothen lost his life in a fire. His friend was also killed with everyone else escaping the home. Bell who’d fully recovered and made his way to the majors, addressed the tragedy sometime after seemingly unprompted. He expressed his sympathies for the friends and loved ones of those who died then said in McGlothen’s fate, “People like that decide it. They have a bad heart. No way they can stay alive.”
You might find those words to be callous, even cruel. I mean I do. Then again, I doubt either of us have persevered through the circumstances Bell did only for somebody to break his face and potentially ruin his life just for playing baseball with a little bit too much swagger.
Baseball was George Bell’s one and only chance at a better life, the sort of life we’d wish for anybody, and he was fiercely, sometimes even violently protective of that chance.
Interleague play began in 1997, so 2026 will be the 30th season of MLB teams playing outside their own “league.” In reality, Major League Baseball became one league in 1999 when the positions of league president were eliminated and the umpiring crews were merged. The National League and American League still exist, of course, but they are now more like NFL-style conferences than actual separate “leagues.” The names remain because they have more than a century of history each.
The last “merger” was the adoption of the universal designated hitter in 2022.
For the first six years of interleague play, teams played only those in the matching division of the other league. In 2003, that was expanded to include other teams in the opposite league, and now every team plays every other team every year.
The Cubs and White Sox have met every year since that first matchup in 1997. They played one three-game series in each of the first two years, then six games a year split between the North Side and South Side from 1999-2012. In 2013 and 2014 that was reduced to four games. Again the teams played six times in 2015, then four times in 2016 and 2017, six times in 2018 and four times in 2019. In 2020-21, it went back to six, then four from 2022-24, and now it’s back to six.
All of that adds up to 152 games. The Cubs have won 77, the Sox 75. The Cubs have outscored the Sox 719 runs to 693. Most of that advantage has come since 2023 — over the last three seasons, the Cubs are 13-2 against the Sox and have outscored them 83-62 in the 15 games.
Here are 10 notable games from the rivalry, in chronological order.
This was the first game of the series, and happened at a time when the Cubs were off to a horrible start (27-40). The Sox, expected to contend, were also under .500 at 30-36. It was played on the South Side.
Kevin Foster threw six solid innings and Cubs hitters teed off on ex-Cub Jaime Navarro, scoring six runs in the first three innings. Ryne Sandberg went 3-for-5.
I will never forget sitting in the stands that day. I asked a Sox fan whether he would root for the Cubs when they played Cleveland, the Sox’ division rival. Answer: “Oh no, we could never do that.”
The Sox took a 2-0 lead off Steve Trachsel in the first, then the Cubs went up 3-2 in the third and made it 5-2 in the fifth on Sammy Sosa’s 17th homer of the year. But the Sox got three more off Trachsel to knot it at 5-all in the sixth and that’s where it stayed until the 12th, when Brant Brown hit a walk-off homer.
No history of this series would be complete without noting the Michael Barrett/A.J. Pierzynski fight. (Also note that the Cubs lost the game, part of a horrid May in which they would go 7-22.
Here’s the fight:
Collisions at the plate like that are now outlawed in MLB. Good thing, too.
Jim Edmonds homered twice and Aramis Ramirez and Mike Fontenot also went deep in a nine-run fourth inning that led the Cubs to this win, though manager Lou Piniella had to call on Kerry Wood to save the game in the ninth after the Sox rallied off Bob Howry.
“His conduct wasn’t acceptable,” Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said. “His actions toward his teammates and staff were not acceptable.
“He will not be at the ballpark tomorrow. We’ll play with 24. We’ll play with 24 before we tolerate that kind of behavior.”
Asked if there was any doubt in his mind that Zambrano would pitch again for the Cubs this year, Hendry said he “certainly wouldn’t rule it out” and added “the rules of the game usually don’t allow long, long-term suspensions.”
It didn’t last long. Zambrano made his next turn in the rotation July 3, when he held the Brewers to one run in seven innings.
The Stanley Cup was paraded around Wrigley Field by the Blackhawks, who had just won their first NHL title in 39 years.
Then Ted Lilly took a no-hitter into the ninth inning, when Juan Pierre’s leadoff single broke it up:
Carlos Marmol then entered the game. 2010 was his best year, with 38 saves and a 41.6 percent strikeout rate. But on this night he was wild. He walked Andruw Jones, then balked the runners up a base. After a strikeout, Alex Rios was intentionally walked. Marmol then got Paul Konerko to hit into a 3-2 force play at the plate and Carlos Quentin to fly to short center to end the game. (You can see the rest of the inning after Pierre’s hit in the video above.)
In a wacky game that lasted more than four hours, the Cubs blew a 6-0 first-inning lead and found themselves trailing 9-6 after three and 13-6 after five. This was a month after the big selloff at that year’s trade deadline and the Cubs pitchers that night were Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson, Michael Rucker, Rex Brothers, Trevor Megill, Ryan Meisinger and Manuel Rodriguez. Of those, only Megill is still on an active MLB roster.
But the Cubs mounted a comeback of sorts. Trailing 14-7 going into the eighth, they scored three on doubles by Ian Happ and Jason Heyward. The Sox then matched that with a three-run homer by Yasmani Grandal.
So the Cubs again trailed by seven going to the ninth. The Sox called on Craig Kimbrel, who had not pitched well since they acquired him at the deadline from the Cubs for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.
You don’t suppose… Nah. The 2021 Cubs were pretty bad. Kimbrel struck out Austin Romine to end the game. In three appearances for Kimbrel against the Cubs after the trade, he threw 2.2 innings and allowed six hits and six runs, with three home runs, for a 20.25 ERA.
The Sox came into this game 30 games under .500 at 15-45. The Cubs were at .500 at 30-30.
And the Sox teed off on Shōta Imanaga, scoring five runs in the fourth, in part due to an error on third baseman Christopher Morel.
The Cubs fought back to tie the game 5-5 after six, with Morel and Patrick Wisdom both hitting two-run homers in that inning. But Hayden Wesneski served up a solo homer to Luis Robert Jr. and the Sox led 6-5 going to the bottom of the eighth, when Ian Happ’s two-run double gave the Cubs a 7-6 lead.
Hector Neris was given the save opportunity. He issued a one-out walk to Oscar Colás and the Sox sent in a pinch-runner, a rookie named Duke Ellis, who was making his MLB debut. Ellis promptly stole second, but then Neris picked him off (after a review) [VIDEO].
Neris then got Corey Julks to pop up to end the game.
Once again, the Cubs fell behind early to this awful Sox team, 5-1 going to the bottom of the fifth. The Cubs scored a pair in the fifth, one on a groundout and the other on a balk, to make it 5-3. Then they scored three in the seventh, on a wild pitch, a sac fly and a single (I told you that Sox team was awful!), to give them a 6-5 lead.
Wesneski, for the second straight night, allowed a key Sox home run, this one by Paul DeJong, that tied the game 6-6 in the eighth.
The game remained tied until the bottom of the ninth. Michael Kopech entered to pitch for the Sox. He threw ball one to Mike Tauchman. And then… [VIDEO]
Mike Tauchman was a fun player to have around for a couple of years.
On an absolutely gorgeous Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field almost exactly a year ago, this was what we might call the “Pete Crow-Armstrong Game.”
PCA went 4-for-5 with a three-run homer and six RBI as the Cubs demolished the Sox, who actually took a 2-0 lead in the first off Cade Horton, who was making his first MLB start (after a relief outing in his MLB debut following an opener the previous weekend in New York).
Your 2026 New York Mets: We’ve been through a lot.
“We’ve been through a lot. It feels like when we went through that stretch — every time we got down a couple of runs, the game was over. That was the feeling. Now we’re down three in that first inning, and you still feel good.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]
But enough about the 18-25 Mets bad vibes…
“We’re better than that, especially the past couple of days. We needed to be better.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]
…let’s talk about the [insert Gerald voice] GOOD VIBES [Note: This is a reference who the only people that will get currently have a young child that they read aloud two ‘Elephant & Piggie’ books every night and use my very specific voice for the Elephant character named Gerald]
“[Regular celebrations in the home clubhouse have followed, featuring pumping music and, as Benge put it,] ‘definitely way better’ vibes.” -Anthony DiComo [MLB]
Speaking of vibes; Swaggy V[ibes] update
“I am always confident at the plate — I feel good right now for sure. I just have to continue to be consistent.” -Mark Vientos [New York Post]
The Mets are [fact checks by looking at data, does math, looks at dictionary] currently on a winning streak
“There’s a lot to like. We won in a lot of different ways. We swung the bat well. We created traffic. We ran the bases well. We got timely hitting. The pitching was outstanding. … Overall, the whole series, I thought we played complete, complete games.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]
Especially because the Mets have been, putting it nicely, ‘lackluster’ to start the year; I’m really getting R.A. Dickey vibes where, even if the team is not winning, McLean is just joy to watch every start because of how unique of a pitcher he is
“I’m pretty happy with getting into the seventh today. I just had to find what was working, get creative a couple times and find different pitches that were working.” -Nolan McLean [MLB]
Guys being bros
“I’ve already been treating [AJ Ewing] like a rookie.” -Carson Benge [MLB]
Benge might be a rookie but this is veteran-level response to a reporter asking you to ‘talk about the play where you did bad’…
“It’s baseball. It’s going to happen. It happens to the best of us. So being able to try and get the next play, try and get the next out, the next pitch, just really helps me keep my head on straight.” -Carson Benge [MLB]
…and this is Lucas Duda/Pete Alonso-level [complimentary] responding to be asked how your first big league walk off felt, yeah man, it was ‘definitely a first’…
“[Carson Benge on his first MLB walk off hit] felt amazing. Definitely a first. Indescribable.” -Carson Benge [MLB]
…though Christian Scott might the true new team Lucas Duda/Pete Alonso quote giver
“You’re obviously having a lot more fun when you’re winning baseball games.” -Christian Scott [MLB]
This is catnip for anyone who was into sabermetrics in the aughts
“That’s just part of my identity as a hitter. I’m patient. I see a lot of pitches, and I make pitchers work hard.” -A.J. Ewing [MLB]
I genuinely don’t know a lot about Freddy Peralta, but seems like a good teammate
“It reminds me of my debut and how proud you feel about yourself. I know that [Ewing] feels great about it, and I think that we made him feel better with a win.” -Freddy Peralta [MLB]
My read is this is a very polite and concise way of replacing a response that could be more aggressive, way longer, and include the word ‘runway’ a lot
“We look at [having two rookies in the OF with Juan Soto] and say that could be a really productive outfield for a long time.” -David Stearns
After being constantly burned by squinting at the stats and scouting reports of Mets OF prospects over the years, hoping they become full time >2+ WAR starters (e.g. Lastings Milledge, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, or Nick Evans if in LF), I’m getting my hopes up once again
“I’m confident in my ability. I’m just going to play the same game I’ve been playing and do what I do.” -A.J. Ewing
Jared Greenspan of MLB.com had a really nice post about Christian Scott’s pitch data but tl;dr below
Worcester took the lead early in this one against the Bisons (TOR — and here’s your annual reminder that the plural of bison is “bison”) thanks to a solo shot by first baseman Nick Sogard. Sogard is heating up, with four multi-hit efforts in the last six games. Over the past eight games, his slash line is .379/.474/.724 with two home runs and seven RBI. I can think of a team that needs a spark who could use a Nick Sogard.
The Bison(s) got all of their runs in the second inning off of recently demoted starter Jake Bennett, who allowed seven hits and four runs in 3 ⅓ innings, throwing 70 pitches. Seth Martinez, Noah Song, Tayron Guerrero combined for 4 ⅔ shutout innings.
A Mikey Romero two-run shot in the ninth cut the lead to the final score of 4-3. Sogard and Nate Eaton each had two hit days and Kristian Campbell walked three times.
Ahbram Liendo had a monster day at the plate for the Sea Dogs on Thursday, hammering his first homer of the season, part of a three hit day with three RBI, and a stolen base.
Ahbram Liendo solo shot.
The Boston Red Sox prospect with his first home run of the season in Double-A. pic.twitter.com/pmqE8ayQJS
Marvin Alcantara also added a solo shot. Blake Wehunt started and went 3 ⅓ innings, striking out seven Yard Goats (COL). Reliever Max Carlson got the win and Cooper Adams a two inning save.
John Holobetz (1-3, 5.40) will get the ball for the Sea Dogs on Friday at 7:10.
Bowling Green Hot Rods 5, Greenville Drive 1 (BOX)
The Drive had eight hits on the day against the Hot Rods (TB) but couldn’t get any of them to the plate until a meaningless run in the ninth. Henry Godbout was 3-for-5, and Antonio Anderson had two hits and an RBI on the day.
Starter Dylan Brown struck out seven in his second start since the promotion to Greenville, allowing two runs in five innings.
The Drive will send Marcus Phillips (0-2, 7.64) to the mound at 6:45 on Friday.
Salem RidgeYaks 6, Fredericksburg Nationals 3 (BOX)
Enddy Azocar opened the scoring for the RidgeYaks with a solo shot, his sixth, in the third inning, part of a two-hit, two-RBI day. Azocar has a .279 average and a .846 OPS on the year.
Skylar King, Ty Hodge, and Avinson Pinto all contributed two-hit games as well for Salem, part of an 11-hit effort in the 6-3 win over Fredericksburg (WAS).
Starter Barrett Morgan was outstanding, allowing one hit in five shutout innings for the win. Morgan was an 11th-round pick for the Sox a year ago. Jose Bello picked up a four inning save.
Jason Gilman (0-0, 1.23) will take the bump for Salem at 6:35 on Friday.