The first big domino of the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline fell on Wednesday night when the Twins traded their closer, Jhoan Durán, to the Phillies for RHP Mick Abel and catching prospect Eduardo Tait.
We know Durán is one of the premier closers in baseball, so what does this mean for the Phillies in 2025, and should Twins fans be happy with the return package?
What does Jhoan Durán bring to the Phillies?
A lights-out, lockdown reliever. The 27-year-old Durán has a career 2.47 ERA and 74 saves in 233.2 MLB innings. This season, he's pitching to a 2.01 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 53/18 K/BB ratio in 40.1 innings while racking up 16 saves. He does have his lowest strikeout rate of his career, and his fastball velocity has dipped, but Durán is still averaging over 100.3 mph on the pitch. He pairs that with a dominant splitter that averaged 97.5 mph with a solid 15.7% swinging strike rate, and a curveball that he throws 21% of the time and has an impressive 17.6% swinging strike rate on its own.
In his career, Durán has allowed just a .193 batting average in high-leverage situations with a .273 slugging percentage and a 27% strikeout rate. Not only does he immediately give the Phillies one of the best late-inning arms in baseball, but he has two more years of team control. Durán is making $4.125 million this season and has two more years of arbitration before he becomes a free agent. While the Twins may have been concerned about how high his salary would rise in arbitration, a big market team like the Phillies has no such worries. Durán will immediately step into a closer role for them this season and likely for the next two seasons as well.
Who are Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait, and how do they fit with the Twins?
Mick Abel is the name that most people will recognize here. The 23-year-old was the 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft and made a real leap this season in Triple-A. There were some concerns about his elevated walk rate coming into this season, but he cut his walks from 5.16 BB/9 in 113.1 minor league innings last year to 3.89 BB/9 in 74 minor league innings this year. That's a substantial improvement. He also posted a dominant enough statline at Triple-A (2.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 26.6% strikeout rate) that he worked his way into the Phillies' rotation.
His overall numbers in six starts with the Phillies aren't great, registering a 5.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 21/9 K/BB ratio in 25 innings; however, three of his six starts were relatively impressive. He has an above-average four-seam fastball that's 96.2 mph with good extension and a solid approach angle that makes it a flat fastball that succeeds up in the zone. He posted an 81st percentile swinging strike rate on it during his six big league starts. He pairs that with a curveball that grades out as just average in pitch models, but posted a 16.7% swinging strike rate and well above average zone rates, and a slider that is a true below-average offering. Abel rounds out his pitch mix with a sinker he uses almost exclusively to righties and a show-me changeup that leaves a lot to be desired.
As he is right now, Abel is a solid middle-to-back-of-the-rotation arm without true strikeout upside. However, Minnesota has done a good job developing pitching talent over the last few years, getting career seasons out of Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, and turning Zebby Matthews into a high-end pitching prospect. If they can get more out of Abel's slider, there is another level of development here that could make him a good real-life second or third starter.
Eduardo Tait is the player in this deal many won't know, but he's the 56th-ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, and was selected to this year's Futures Game. The 18-year-old catching prospect is a bit of a lottery ticket upside because he's hitting .255/.319/.434 in 82 games between Single-A and High-A with 11 home runs. He is raw defensively and may not be a catcher long-term, but he is a powerful hitter from the left side of the plate who has shown a solid contact profile this season. He makes a lot of hard contact, and if he can turn into even an average defender, that would be a huge win for the Phillies, considering the offensive upside that he could bring.
What is the fantasy impact of this trade?
We know Durán will slot in as the Phillies' closer, and they have tended to use just one closer under manager Rob Thomson, so there may be no fireman role here for Durán, especially since the Phillies could use newly signed David Robertson for that purpose. Of course, that means any hopes of Robertson or Orion Kerkering registering saves in Philadelphia are pretty much out the window right now. Durán does get a slight bump in value though.
Even though Mick Abel is being sent to Triple-A, you'd have to expect he makes some starts for the Twins this season. It's likely that the Twins already have some tweaks in mind for Abel's approach or his grips, and they'd rather work on that with him in Triple-A than in the majors. Whether Abel gets innings with the Twins in August or September likely depends on the health of David Festa and Pablo Lopez. Right now, the Twins have one spot open in the rotation, with Pierson Ohl getting a crack at the job on Tuesday, so Lopez or Festa will take that spot if they're healthy enough to return. If not, Abel could get some chances down the stretch and seems like a lock to open the 2026 season in the Twins' rotation.
This also means that Andrew Painter is the sixth starter on the Phillies; although, that will likely become the seventh starter once Aaron Nola is back. It still feels unlikely Painter makes a major fantasy impact in 2025, but he should be considered a likely candidate to be in the Phillies' rotation in 2026.
Tait is, obviously, much farther away; although, I guess this is a slight downgrade to his dynasty stock since he will eventually play for a (likely) worse offense and in a worse offensive environment. Still, it shouldn't impact his value too much since he's only 18 years old.
Final takeaways from the Jhoan Durán trade
Overall, this is not a bad return for the Twins. They got two players who are currently listed in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects, including one who can quickly join their rotation. However, considering the initial rumors were that the Twins were holding out for Andrew Painter, the Phillies' top pitching prospect, it has to feel like a win for the Phillies that they were able to make this deal without trading away any of their top three prospects: Painter, outfielder Justin Crawford, and infielder Aidan Miller. Given how brutal the Phillies' bullpen was in last year's playoffs, this was a monumental move for them to make.
