In the wake of a failed season, Mets fans want change to the team’s core 00 and understandably so. But the consensus among scouts and evaluators I spoke to this week is that important changes are coming organically, via the farm system. As such, there’s no need to overreact, at least on the position-player side.
That is, with one rather huge exception.
"Kyle Schwarber would solve a lot of their problems," is the way one scout put it. "I don’t know if it’s possible, but if Steve Cohen wants to flex again this winter, he should pay whatever it would take to get Schwarber to leave the Phillies."
By "a lot of their problems," the scout was referring mainly to Pete Alonso’s free agency. Everyone I spoke to acknowledges that while Alonso’s bat is vital to the Mets’ offense, his defense, and specifically his throwing, has become too much of an issue to ignore.
"That high throw to (Kodai) Senga changed their whole season," another scout said, speaking of the play that resulted in Senga’s hamstring injury on June 12. "And I can remember a bunch more where he put his pitchers in harm’s way. Also, his throws to second, throws to the plate. If you’re the Mets, you’re holding your breath every time he has to make a throw."
Factor in David Stearns, at his end-of-season news conference, emphasizing the need for better run prevention for next season, and it adds even more intrigue to Alonso’s free agency, since the Mets’ slugger has given every indication that he wants to remain a first baseman, not be a DH.
Schwarber, of course, is a DH, the best one in baseball after hitting 56 home runs this season and racking up an MLB-leading 132 RBI. He’s also a folk hero of sorts in Philadelphia, with a big-spending owner in John Middleton, who is expected to go the extra mile to bring Schwarber back -- especially if the alternative would be losing him to the rival Mets.
"The fans here would never forgive (Middleton) if Schwarber signed with the Mets," one Philly media person told me. "And honestly Schwarber is so much the heart and soul of that team -- and he takes that role seriously -- that it’s hard to see him taking the money to go to such a big rival. But you never know; everybody has their price.
"And I’ll say this: if Cohen really does decide to go after him the way he went after (Juan) Soto, it would scare the hell out of Philly fans."
If the Mets were somehow to pull it off, that would give Stearns and Cohen a free pass of sorts to move on from Alonso. Fans love the idea of the homegrown Polar Bear as a career Met after he became the team’s all-time home run leader and, perhaps more importantly, had an outstanding season offensively. But I think most would be fine with essentially slotting Schwarber into the lineup for Alonso.
Even Cohen wouldn’t sign both, especially with Edwin Diaz likely opting out and the Mets absolutely needing to sign at least one top free agent pitcher from the likes of Framber Valdez, Michael King, Dylan Cease, or Ranger Suarez.
Instead, Stearns surely would look for a right-handed-hitting first baseman with a good glove. The free agent market doesn’t offer an obvious fit, though Paul Goldschmidt had a solid season in the Bronx and put up big numbers against left-handed pitching. So it might be on the president of baseball operations to find one via trade.
Left-handed hitting prospect Ryan Clifford looms as a potential long-term answer at first base, but he’s only 22 and scouts think he needs more time in the minors. In truth, the lineup would be more balanced if the Mets could convince Alonso to re-sign as at least a part-time DH as part of, say, a four-year deal, but it would make for a tricky negotiation, especially if another team assured him of being a full-time first baseman.
In any case, the Schwarber scenario aside, it’s the Mets’ farm system that may dictate the core stays mostly intact entering next season. Specifically, Carson Benge and Jett Williams, ranked 20th and 29th among all minor league prospects by MLBPipeline.com, loom as answers at second base and center field at least at some point next season, if not the start.
"They both could be impact players," one scout said. "Benge is coming fast: he has a very advanced approach and a lot of natural ability as a hitter, and Williams has been slowed by injuries but he’s still young, with good plate discipline and a knack for getting the barrel to the ball.
"They both stalled a little after getting to Triple-A (in August) but if you’re the Mets, you’re probably not going to sign anyone this winter who would block their paths."
In that case, perhaps it makes sense to bring back Jeff McNeil, even as badly as he finished the season, as a placeholder of sorts for Williams at second base in the final year of his contract. Unless you want to start the season with Luisangel Acuña, whose bat remains a big question mark, even while he offers value with his speed and defense.
As for center field, Tyrone Taylor doesn’t hit enough to be an everyday player, but the Mets missed his sparkling defense in September when he was out with a hamstring injury. Perhaps they could find a left-handed-hitting platoon partner not named Cedric Mullins until Benge is ready.
To that end, Trent Grisham would be an intriguing option, after he hit a whopping 34 home runs for the Yankees this season, but it would almost certainly take a multiyear contract to sign him, and his lack of a track record plus Benge’s presence would seem to work against that happening.
As for other positions, Brandon Nimmo could be a trade candidate for the sake of shaking up the core, but his contract -- with five more years for $102.5 million, means the Mets would likely have to eat significant money and still probably not get the value they’d want. Nimmo also has a full no-trade clause.
Meanwhile, if Brett Baty’s last couple of months were a sign that he’s finally over the hump offensively, he could be a solid answer at third base.
Likewise, if Francisco Alvarez’s improvements as a hitter following his demotion to Syracuse (.921 OPS) are a sign of things to come, he should give the offense considerably more thump.
Finally, it’s hard to give up on Ronny Mauricio’s potential, as flawed a hitter as he appears to be, although it does feel like the Mets should trade Mark Vientos, even selling low, unless he winds up being their best option as the full-time DH.
Add it all up and it may not be the winter of new names a lot of Mets fans would like to see on the position-player side, unless Stearns gets creative with trades.
Signing Schwarber, of course, would change all of that. Is it realistic? Perhaps only if Cohen throws crazy money at him.
Otherwise, the Alonso decision will be front and center. And while it would be awfully hard to re-sign him and still stay true to the run prevention that Stearns indicated he would prioritize, his bat is vital to the Mets’ run production.
"If I’m Cohen and I can’t get Schwarber," one scout said, "I sit down with Alonso and find out how much money it would take to convince him to DH at least most of the time. Even if it’s millions more, it’d be worth it."
If that’s what ultimately happens, it’s possible that the core doesn’t change much at all. And yet the Mets could still be significantly better, upgrading the pitching staff, benefiting from Baty and Alvarez continuing to grow, and waiting on the likes of Benge and Williams to blossom.
But they should at least try first for Schwarber.
