Category: Baseball

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The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins wrap up a series on Sunday Night Baseball, with the White Sox installed as a modest favorite and the total set at 8.5.

The White Sox are turning this into a bullpen day. Bryan Hudson opens, Jose Urquidy follows in bulk relief, and the Twins counter with Bailey Ober, who ranks in the Bottom 10 percentile of baseball in both strikeout rate and whiff rate this year.

Chicago's late-season form is clearly the better of these two clubs, and the way this game is being pitched has my White Sox vs. Twins prediction backing the home team. See why I'm also backing the Over in my MLB picks on Sunday, Sep. 6.

Who will win Twins vs White Sox today: White Sox -1.5 (39%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Minnesota Twins arm Bailey Ober ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile in K rate and whiff rate, and his fastball sits in the Bottom 1st percentile for velocity in baseball. That's why I'm fading him.

That's a specific problem against a Chicago White Sox lineup that already ranks above MLB average in both fly-ball rate (27.8%) and barrel rate (8.4%): they don't need to grind through counts against a low-whiff arm; they need to lift the ball, which is exactly what his profile will invite.

On the other side, you'll get Bryan Hudson as an opener against a lineup he should have success against for at least one frame. Jose Urquidy follows him in an expected bulk role. He hasn't had a great season, but the underlying metrics tell a different story: an actual ERA exceeding 5.00 but an expected ERA at around 3.00.

I'm banking on some of that positive regression coming here against a below-average offense. I'd play this to 41%.

COVERS INTEL: Jose Urquidy's contact profile is generally elite, ranking in the Bottom 20th percentile in both hard-hit and barrel rate allowed. 

Twins vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (50%)

I'm on the Over for two units up to 54%. 

I've covered why I think Ober will struggle enough, which means the White Sox should do the heavy lifting. There's a bit of guesswork on the other side with a semi-bullpen profile game; however, Sean Newcomb is unlikely to be available today, removing one of Chicago's better late-inning arms.

For me, there's a real crooked number threat posed by Chicago, so anything the Twins do is a bonus. However, a thinner White Sox pen behind a short-outing opener does give Minnesota its own window to score. Two lineups with real paths to damage is the Over profile I want. 

Twins vs White Sox home run prediction: Josh Bell (14%)

Josh Bell is a switch-hitter who bats left-handed against right-handers, and it's been his best power split of the year: 12 dingers and a .432 slugging mark in just over 300 ABs against right-handed pitching, ahead of his output against lefties.

Urquidy's extension ranks in the Bottom 9th percentile in baseball, and his fastball velocity in the Bottom 21st, a below-average combination that gives hitters more time to read the ball. I like this matchup for a guy with enough power and a platoon advantage, especially at the price.  

Twins vs White Sox weather

Conditions at Rate Field are expected to be mild: mid-70s, partly cloudy, 10 mph winds and no rain. Nothing here materially juices the total or knocks down fly balls.

Twins vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Twins 43% | White Sox 58%
• Run line: Twins +1.5 | White Sox -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Twins vs White Sox trend

The Over is 6-1-1 in Minnesota's last eight games during Game 3 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.

How to watch Twins vs White Sox and game info

Twins vs White Sox latest injuries

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No matter what may you look at it, this was a tough one. After the San Diego Padres walked off the New York Yankees on Friday night, they took a gut punch in Game 2, losing 5-1. Much of that was thanks to starter Robbie Ray failing to get out of the third inning.

After setting down the first three batters, Ben Rice singled to lead off the second inning. Ray got the next two batters out before giving up a double, three consecutive walks and a two-run single. Ray’s command completely eluded him, after he had looked strong to start the night. That, along with a quiet offense, marked the death of the Padres on Saturday night. They’ll now face New York in the rubber match this afternoon, trying to win their first series in two weeks.

Taking the mound

Gerrit Cole (NYY) v. Michael King (SD)

Cole spent the beginning of 2026 stuck on the injured list. The veteran’s first start of the year came on May 22 after receiving from Tommy John surgery. He’s been solid in that time, pitching to a 3.29 ERA through 104 innings. The strikeout numbers are modest, with 110 K’s in that same time.

But, in his last seven starts. Cole has turned up his game. He’s pitched to a 2.36 ERA across 42 innings. That being said, the last two games have been his worst in that time. Cole has surrendered six runs over his last 11 1/3 innings, giving up three runs in each of his two recent starts. San Diego will try to take advantage of that to win the series finale.

King has been fantastic this year, with a 3.11 ERA to back up that claim. Through 162 innings, King has proved that 2024 was not a fluke, posting incredibly consistent numbers through most of the season. King has been especially fantastic lately, with a 2.86 ERA across his last 15 starts.

Even more so, King hasn’t surrendered a single run since Aug. 19, pitching 16 consecutive scoreless innings. King will look to follow that up versus his former team. The right-hander came over from New York in 2024 in the trade that sent superstar Juan Soto to the Bronx.

Batter up!

It’s no secret that the Padres’ lineup has struggled in their last few games. The offense hasn’t scored more than three runs since last Monday when they scored five against the Cincinnati Reds. In the last four games, San Diego has scored just 2.43 runs per game, on average. They’ll need to do much better to back up King today.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Samad Taylor, LF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, 1B
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS
7. Luis Campusano, DH
8. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
9. Ethan Salas, C

The Padres walked (6) more than they hit (3) on Saturday night, with a truly disheartening performance from the offense. They struck out (12) more times than they reached base. If San Diego can turn the tables on Cole, and win their first series of September, it would be a major turning point for the Friars.

Relief corps

With Ray making it through just 2 1/3 innings, the bullpen was taxed a bit. Thankfully, Griffin Canning and Jhony Brito each covered two-plus innings of work, with Wandy Peralta and David Morgan covering the final two frames. That saved San Diego’s ‘pen for the rubber match just enough.

The Padres will have their high-leverage options in full force. Kyle Hart, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez will all be available for the rubber game. That, plus King on the mound, should give the Friars all the edge they need to beat New York.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, September 6, 2026, 1:35 p.m. ET

Location: PNC Park – Pittsburgh, PA

Broadcast: 93.7 The Fan (KDKA-FM), SportsNet Pittsburgh / MLB.TV

Pitching Matchup: Walbert Ureña (9-9, 2.85 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (9-11, 3.97 ERA)

The Angels dominated Pittsburgh 6-1 on Saturday thanks to six scoreless innings from Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi entered action with a 5.65 ERA, but was another lefty who shut down the Pirates this year. The Bucs only managed a solo home run from Bryan Reynolds in the bottom of the eighth.

Arizona won, but San Diego lost, meaning the Pirates are five games back of the Diamondbacks for the final wild card. Paul Skenes is on the mound looking to bounce back from a difficult outing against the Giants. Skenes allowed five runs over 4.2 innings and also walked three hitters. A win today would be Skenes’ 10th of the year and match last season’s win total. The Pirates need to win today to have any chance to make up the ground necessary with only 19 games left in the season. 

Sunday notes…

• TRYING TO EVEN THINGS UP: The Cubs have not swept a series at Miami since April of 2019. Two years ago, they won the first two games and lost the third. A win today will make the Cubs’ all-time record at Miami 59-59 and their record at loanDepot Park 23-23. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE; This is the 14th of the Cubs’ 46 series in which they have won the first two games. They are 7-6 in previous third games, but only 1-5 on the road. Their only win was at New York vs. the Mets on June 24. They lost at San Francisco in June; Pittsburgh, Baltimore and St. Louis in July; and Washington on Aug. 13. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• A MATCHING SET: If the Cubs win today, they will be 41-31 on the road — exactly the same as their record at home. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• HOME RUN FACTS: Since hitting a team-record nine home runs last Monday at home vs. the Brewers, the Cubs have hit a total of four: none in their next game, then one in each of the last four. The Cubs won yesterday despite being outhomered, 2-1. They are 18-36 when they have hit fewer homers than they have allowed, 27-18 when they have hit the same number and 36-8 when they have hit more. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: The Cubs homer five times, including three by Alfonso Soriano, and lead the Reds 11-1 going into the bottom of the eighth. They have to hold off four-run rallies by the Reds in both the eighth and ninth to win 14-8. It happened 18 years ago today, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2008.

Cubs lineup:

Marlins lineup:

Clay Holmes, RHP vs. Tyler Phillips, RHP

Clay Holmes with the Cubs: Five starts, 1.55 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, just one home run allowed in 29 innings.

As a member of the Mets last year, Holmes faced the Marlins four times and posted a 3.00 ERA in 21 innings — with NO home runs allowed.

Just keep the ball on the ground, Clay. Current Marlins are batting .209 (9-for-43) against him with no home runs and 15 strikeouts.

Tyler Phillips was the Texas Rangers’ 16th round pick in 2015 out of high school in Texas. Eventually he went to the Phillies on waivers in 2021 and to the Marlins for cash considerations last year.

His only career appearance against the Cubs was a scoreless inning of relief May 21, 2025 in Miami. He began this year in the Marlins bullpen, but has been in the rotation since June 16, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.355 WHIP and 12 home runs allowed in 62 innings. His last start, Sept. 1 vs. the Royals, was very good: five one-hit innings. The Cubs offense, though, is a lot better than Kansas City’s.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network. For Cubs fans in the UK, this game will be on BBC as well as other European channels. Details here.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit the Marlins site Fish On First. If you do go there to interact with Marlins fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Texas Rangers lineup for September 6, 2026, against the Tampa Bay Rays: starting pitchers are MacKenzie Gore for the Rangers and Ian Seymour for the Rays.

Its the final game of a disappointing homestand, with the Rangers needing a win to split the series against the Rays and avoid a losing record in the homestand.

The lineup:

Duran — CF

Seager — SS

Foscue — 2B

Nimmo — RF

Langford — LF

Burger — 1B

O’Hoppe — DH

Diaz — C

Freeman — 3B

1:35 p.m. Central start time. The game is a pick ‘em.

The Phillies and Braves will square off on Sunday afternoon in the third game of their four-game series. The teams split the first two with the Braves winning on Friday and the Phillies rebounding to take the second game.

Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies. The veteran righty has been very good lately, going 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA in August.

Tyler Mahle goes for the Braves. The righthander was acquired via trade at the end of July and has been a solid addition to the Atlanta rotation with a 1.48 ERA in five post-trade starts.

Game time is 1:10 PM and will be televised locally by NBCSP.

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My Yankees vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6, back New York as a 51% favorite.

After a 5-1 N.Y. win on Saturday, the Yanks look to Gerrit Cole to keep their winning ways alive. First pitch comes to you live from Petco Park at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: Yankees (51%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Very simple get-in-and-get-out reasoning: The San Diego Padres have been lifeless at the dish.

Over their last 12 games, they own an 82 wRC+, .128 ISO, and .631 OPS while producing just a 5.9% barrel rate.

That lineup now draws New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who has been nails over his last five starts, owning a 2.97 ERA and 3.02 xERA while allowing just a 3.49% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Padres starter and former Yankee Michael King has been very solid over his last three starts as well, but the Yankees have been light-years better than the Padres at the dish this past week. Lean on the hot bats and the more consistent arm.

Play to 54%.

COVERS INTEL: Spencer Jones has been crushing right-handed pitching over his last 30 at-bats, owning a .538 SLG and .307 ISO while generating a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.

Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (44%)

With how poorly the Padres have been swinging the bat lately and how well Gerrit Cole and Michael King have been on the rubber, this game should stay under this low total.

Cole has been allowing a ton of hard contact over his last five starts, but that comes with being a heavy fastball pitcher.

He still has a 1.12 WHIP over that stretch. King has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls across his last five starts, where he also sports a 1.71 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

This feels like a 3-2 ballgame.

Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Ben Rice (18%)

Yankees young slugger Ben Rice was the one guy who really stood out to leave the yard in this matchup. I also didn’t mind Spencer Jones or Fernando Tatis Jr., but Rice has been making a ton of hard contact while posting a 15% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.

Over his last 10 games, he also sports a .600 SLG and .659 xSLG while elevating the ball 65.6% of the time.

Yankees vs Padres weather

Ideal baseball weather this afternoon, with temperatures in the mid-80s and a 9 mph wind blowing in. Should make for a beautiful day at the ballpark and a great game to take in.

Yankees vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Yankees 51% | Padres 50%
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (38%) | Padres +1.5 (63%)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (57%) | Under 6.5 (44%)

Yankees vs Padres trend

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.

How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info

Yankees vs Padres latest injuries

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The Seattle Mariners hope to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Athletics at T-Mobile Park on Sunday, Sept. 6.

First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET, and my top Athletics vs. Mariners prediction and MLB picks call for a low-scoring game. 

Who will win Athletics vs Mariners today: Athletics moneyline (37%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Though Gage Jump has struggled in recent starts, this is a matchup in which he should be able to limit the damage done against him. The Seattle Mariners bats have struggled against southpaws during the last 30 days, ranking 28th in wRC+, 28th in ISO, and 28th in strikeout rate.  

The Athletics have started to turn a corner at the plate, too. They rank sixth in wRC+, third in batting average, and fifth in ISO against right-handed pitching during the last 14 days. Bryan Woo has thrown the ball well recently, but he's been pitching through a lat injury and could be vulnerable on normal rest, compared to recent outings in which he's been on extended rest.

The Athletics once again have value on the moneyline as they seek a series sweep this afternoon.

COVERS INTEL: The Mariners rank dead last with a .212 batting average against southpaws in 2026.

Athletics vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (52%)

Seattle's bats have not had success against left-handed starters since the All-Star break, ranking 24th in wRC+ during the first five innings of games when facing a southpaw. Gage Jump has been tagged for some crooked numbers in recent outings, but this matchup is still likely to be an uphill challenge for the Mariners offense.

Bryan Woo owns a 2.89 ERA and 4.25 xERA since the beginning of August, allowingtwo earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts during that span. He will have to contend with a surging Athletics offense this afternoon, but this doesn't appear to be a spot in which he's at risk of getting shelled.

Both teams have rested bullpens for the series finale, too, which should limit scoring opportunities in the latter frames.

Athletics vs Mariners home run prediction: Lawrence Butler (14%)

Lawrence Butler has been on a tear since the beginning of August, hitting .355 with a 137 wRC+. Butler has a 9.2% barrel rate and 51.7% hard-hit rate during that span, meaning that he's been elevating and celebrating a lot.

Bryan Woo has allowed a lot of loud contact to left-handed hitters during the last 30 days: 11.4% barrel rate and a 65.7% hard-hit rate.

Butler has a great chance to leave the yard today.

Athletics vs Mariners weather

Weather shouldn't have a significant impact on this afternoon's contest, with the temperature forecasted at 67 degrees around first pitch.

Athletics vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Athletics 37% | Mariners 64%
• Run line: Athletics +1.5 | Mariners -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Athletics vs Mariners trend

The Athletics have cashed the moneyline in six of their last eight road games for +8.85 units and a 111% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Athletics vs. Mariners.

How to watch Athletics vs Mariners and game info

Athletics vs Mariners latest injuries

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Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (70-66) won 9-2 (BOX SCORE)

Mayer got the start for Sugar Land and went 5 innings allowing 2 runs, 1 earned. The offense got on the board in the first inning scoring 2 runs on a Price 2 run home run. They got 2 more runs in the 2nd inning on a Spence 2 run home run. In the third, the offense scored 2 again on a Biggio sac fly and Dezenzo RBI double. The offense added on with a Cole solo home run in the 7th inning and back to back home runs from Delgado and Guillemette in the 8th. The pen was great tossing 4 scoreless innings as they closed out the 9-2 win.

Note: Loperfido is hitting .292 in Triple-A.

• Zach Cole, CF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Joey Loperfido, LF: 3-for-4, 2 R
• Collin Price, C: 1-for-2, R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB
• Zach Dezenzo, 1B: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI
• Ray Delgado, SS: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, RBI
• Garret Guillemette, DH: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Lucas Spence, RF: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI

• Bryce Mayer, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (59-72) lost 6-5 (BOX SCORE)

DeVos started for the Hooks and pitched 4 innings allowing 4 runs, 3 earned. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Bush RBI single. After the Cardinals got a run in the 5th, the Hooks responded with 4 runs to tie it on a Call solo home run, Whitaker solo home run and Schiavone 2 run double. Leach allowed a run in the eighth as the Cardinals took the lead, and the Hooks’ offense was unable to respond in the ninth as Corpus Christi fell, 6-5.

Note: Thomas has a .855 OPS in Double-A.

• Tyler Whitaker, RF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Justin Thomas, CF: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2B, SB
• Will Bush, C: 1-for-2, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Jason Schiavone, 1B: 1-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
• Hector Salas, DH: 2-for-4
• Chase Call, LF: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI

• Nolan DeVos, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (43-86) lost 11-4 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for Asheville and went 4 innings allowing 5 runs, 3 earned. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Walker RBI double and a run on an error. They picked up another run in the 6th inning on a Garcia RBI single. The bullpen struggled as Baez allowed 4 runs and Ogando allowed 2 runs. Asheville got a run in the 9th on a Neyens RBI double but that was it as they fell 11-4.

Note: Moss is hitting .333 in Asheville.

• Anthony Huezo, LF: 1-for-4, SB
• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-5, 2B, RBI
• Caden Powell, RF: 1-for-4, BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-4, R, 2B
• Nick Monistere, 2B: 1-for-4, R, 2B, SB
• Kyle Walker, DH: 1-for-4, R, 2B, RBI, BB
• John Garcia, C: 2-for-3, R, RBI, BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Jhoster Baez, RHP: 2.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Yosweld Vasquez, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (71-58) lost 2-0 (BOX SCORE)

Ardines started for the Woodpeckers and was solid allowing 1 run over 4 innings of work. He was relieved by Estridge who tossed 3 innings allowing one run. While the pitching staff only allowed 2 runs on 2 hits, the offense had a tough day as they were shutout in the 2-0 loss.

Note: Estridge has a 4.35 ERA this season.

• Kam Durnin, SS: 2-for-4, 2 2B

• Adrian Ardines, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 2 K
• Carson Estridge, RHP: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• John Carver, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Josh Hendrickson – 6:35 CT

CC: James Hicks – 5:05 CT

AV: Dylan Howard – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 1:00 CT

The Washington Nationals did it again, and by it, I mean blowing another save. Last night, the Nats blew their 36th save of the season. That obviously leads the league, but is also only one off tying the all-time record. With about 20 games to go, it is very likely that the 2026 Nationals will grab this piece of unwanted history.

We saw why the Nats have all these blown saves last night. Throughout the season, walks and home runs have killed this bullpen. This bullpen leads baseball in home runs allowed and walks. That is about the worst possible combination you can ask for. It leads to free base-runners and those free base-runners scoring.

Clayton Beeter blew his 7th save of the season last night, and he is the poster boy for this issue. When he is on, Beeter can actually be an effective reliever. However, he has been off far too much, especially lately. Beeter does a good job avoiding hits with a .209 average against. 

The walks and home runs kill him though, as we saw last night. He walked the second batter he faced before allowing a single and a 3-run homer. For the season, Beeter has allowed 1.57 HR/9 and has walked 6.07 batters per 9 innings. That is a toxic combination and Beeter is lucky his ERA is only 4.50 to be honest.

I wrote a piece about which relievers I thought locked down spots on the 2027 team. Beeter was not included and that erratic command is the reason why. He cannot be trusted as a high leverage arm and is not a multi-inning guy either. Beeter’s slider can be filthy, but he has proven that he is not a trustworthy arm.

Obviously Beeter is not the only problem in the bullpen though. He leads the way with 7 blown saves, but there are still 29 more. Somehow, Mitchell Parker remains second on the team with 5 blown saves. Orlando Ribalta, Richard Lovelady and Tom Cosgrove have each blown three. Brad Lord, Cole Henry, Yovanny Cruz, PJ Poulin and Gus Varland have all blown two. Finally, Ken Waldichuk, Matt Krook, Riley Cornelio, Paxton Schultz and Max Kranick have each blown a solitary save.

It has truly been all hands on deck when it comes to blowing games. A big part of this is due to not having an actual closer. That is something that needs to change next year in my opinion. All this stuff about platoon matchups has its place, but in the 9th inning, you need an alpha.

We have seen the consequences of not having one this season. Even a guy like Kyle Finnegan, who was far from perfect at least brought some stability. The new regime may be hesitant to admit it, but this year has shown that the 9th inning is different. 

The Nats are likely to get two more blown saves this year and set the all-time record for blown saves. However, I think there is some room for optimism going forward. Between the trade deadline and some homegrown arms emerging, there is some solid depth. We are seeing that with the likes of Erik Tolman, Jared Simpson and Jack Sinclair.

However, the blown save problem will remain until the Nats find a real killer in the back end. David Bednar, Adrian Morejon and Raisel Iglesias are the big ticket items in free agency this offseason. While the first two are probably out of the Nats price range, Iglesias is a guy I think the Nats should go after. He is exactly the type of stable veteran closer the Nats need.

One of the many issues with this bullpen is that there are just not enough adults in the room. Outside of Orlando Ribalta and Erik Tolman so far, all of these guys are just so scary to watch. I am tired of seeing the likes of Clayton Beeter either spray pitches way out of the zone or throw pitches right down the middle.

Honestly, watching this bullpen has been a traumatic experience for me, and I know that I’m not alone in this feeling. It is time to throw real resources at the back end of the bullpen. If setting the all time blown saves record is not a wake up call, then nothing will be.

With the lack of proven commodities, this bullpen being bad was not a surprise. However, the depths of their ineptitude did catch me off guard. With an analytically minded front office, I thought there would be more hits on some of the waiver claims or smaller moves. Honestly, none of Toboni’s bullpen waiver claims have worked.

If this regime is unable to build a bullpen on the cheap, they have to throw resources at the problem. They did this at the trade deadline, targeting relief prospects in trades over higher upside pieces. However, they will have to do more and find real proven commodities. Otherwise, we will be writing the same story again next season.

Some systems are simple and obvious. Put a piece of paper into a shredder and confetti comes out. Put a dirty car through a car wash and it comes out clean . Put a little tray of cake batter into an Easy-Bake Oven and a little cake comes out (or at least, I assume it does. I never had one, even though I always kinda wanted one).

Pitchers, however, are not a a simple and obvious system. A vast array of inputs— pitch type, location, arm angle, grip, and more— go in, and a vast array of outputs—K%, spin, break both horizontal and vertical, so on, so forth— emerge. But the story need not always be complicated. Jesús Luzardo is having the best season of his career, with what would be a career low ERA (3.02) and WHIP (1.12). The output is as good as it’s ever been. So it stands to reason that the input—the pitches he’s throwing— are better than ever before too.

And they are! Only, they’re not. It’s both. Half of them are. Half of them aren’t.

If you’d prefer to think in terms of batting average or slugging percentage, those follow the same pattern. Luzardo’s four-seamer and changeup are worse than last year, and his sinker and sweeper are better. This raises two questions: how is he pitching better, when half of his arsenal got worse? And how did his pitches change?

Let’s start with the first, because it’s fairly simple. For one thing, he’s throwing what is now his worst pitch, his four-seamer, less. It was his primary offering until now (technically, it did dip just beneath his now-extinct slider in 2022) He offered it 33.3% of the time in 2025, and 25.9% of the time this season. The spotlight that was once given to his four-seamer has now been given to his sweeper (38.2% usage, up from 33.3%) and sinker (17.3%, up from 10.8). He’s also removed his sparsely-used slider from the equation. Throw what’s working better more, and what’s not less; that’s a simple recipe for improving your overall output even if not every piece is improving. It also helps that the biggest positive change, the improvement in his sweeper, is in one of his primary offerings, and that the biggest negative change, the decline in his changeup, is in one of his secondaries.

So with that out of the way, what’s happened to the pitches themselves? There is one underlying change that affects all of them: his arm angle has dropped from 32 degrees to 29. His velocity has changed for the changeup (nearly two MPH less than last year), but his other three pitches are coming in at the same speed. Spin-wise, three of his pitches look mostly unchanged, but the changeup is moving differently: last season the spin direction was 9:45 on a clock, and this season it’s 9:00. He’s getting a little more vertical drop on all of his pitches, too, particularly on the sinker.

The improved drop may explain the sinker’s improved performance, or at least part of it. But the sweeper isn’t so different from last year, in terms of movement and velocity. By Stuff+ (a model that measures most everything that goes into a pitch except for location), it’s not meaningfully different from last year. How is he getting better results with it? He’s using it differently, for one thing. He’s dramatically increased his usage of it as a tool to push an advantage over batters, using it 54.3% of the time when he’s ahead in the count (from 37.8% last season), and about half the time when he’s got two strikes on a batter (from 34.1%).

But how about his control? By Location+, (which measures how well the pitcher locates a pitch, but doesn’t take velocity, movement, etc. into account), he’s actually worse at placing it than last year. And by Pitching+, which takes everything into account, the pitch is simply worse than last year (though still above average). Unfortunately, the data for this gets a bit messy: it combines sliders and sweepers, and last year Luzardo was still throwing his slider 6.5% of the time. So he may not actually be worse, or at least, not as much worse as it seems, at locating the sweeper this year. Perhaps he was particularly good at locating the slider, and removing it from his arsenal simply made it look like his control of the remaining sweeper got worse. But as I don’t have the ability to remove the sliders from the 2025 data, that’s just conjecture. It’s just strange that he’s getting such better results with a pitch that might, by some models, be worse.

Some systems are complicated. Luzardo’s sweeper is one of those. It’s not immediately clear to me how he’s getting improved results with it this year. Maybe the arm angle has done something to it that makes it harder for batters to pick up on. Maybe a change in one of his other pitches has had some sort of domino effect. Maybe it’s the changes in how often and in when he’s using it. Maybe pure variance is having an effect. Maybe it’s something finer, something that you’d need a proper pitching guru to see.

I’d really like to know. But I’m also not complaining.

After years of mediocre play, the New York Yankees finally recognized that their window of contention had closed in July 2016, becoming sellers at the Trade Deadline first the first time since before I was born. With Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltrán, Iván Nova, and more headed elsewhere, the team brought in a veritable army of young prospects which, added to a stable that included 2016 breakout star Gary Sánchez, the young pitcher Luis Severino, and the mammoth outfielder Aaron Judge, would hopefully usher in a new era in Yankees baseball.

Foremost among these new additions would be a player whose loud personality made him loved by some members of the fanbase and hated by others in equal measure: the Red Thunder himself, Clint Frazier.

Clint Jackson Frazier
Born: September 6, 1994 (Loganville, GA)
Yankees Tenure: 2016-21

Born a little less than an hour outside Atlanta, Frazier established himself as a top prospect while at Loganville High School, where he went up against fellow future big leaguer Austin Meadows, who attended the rival Grayson High School. As a junior, he received an invitation to the Under Armour All-American Baseball Game, and as a senior, posted a .485/.561/1.134 slash line en route to being named the Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year.

As the top high school player in the 2013 draft, Frazier was selected fifth overall by Cleveland, whose $3.5 million signing bonus convinced him to forego his commitment to the University of Georgia and embark on his professional career.

Thanks to his oft-memed “legendary bat speed,” Frazier steadily climbed through the Cleveland farm system, reaching Triple-A in the middle of July 2016. But while he had taken great strides at the plate over his three years in professional ball, he still needed some time in the minors before he’d be ready for The Show. 2016, though, looked to be Cleveland’s best time to strike, and so the front office pushed all its chip into the center of the table and sent a massive package to the Yankees for reliever Andrew Miller – a package headlined, of course, by Frazier.

The young redhead immediately became the organization’s top prospect, rivaled only by fellow newcomer Gleyber Torres, formerly of the Cubs and acquired for Miller’s bullpenmate, Aroldis Chapman. With Judge, Sánchez, Tyler Austin (who also celebrates a birthday today!), and Mason Williams already receiving regular at-bats in the Bronx, the Yankees opted to send their new outfielder to Scranton, where he posted a .228/.278/.396 slash in 25 games.

Heading into the 2017 season, Frazier projected as the Yankees’ left fielder of the future — assuming, of course, that he continued to develop his pitch recognition. Unfortunately, in what would become a sign of things to come, unnecessary drama — at least partially imposed by others — began to follow him. Articles about his long red locks and the Yankees’ age-old (and very outdated) grooming policy, plus a false report that he wanted Mickey Mantle’s No. 7, made him a lightning rod for criticism, as the media looked for the baseball equivalent of Odell Beckham Jr., i.e. a player guaranteed to generate outrage, and therefore, clicks.

Despite the noise, Frazier performed on the diamond, eventually making his MLB debut in July 1st after fellow Baby Bomber suffered a devastating injury in the first inning of his debut the day before. He notched his first career hit with a sixth-inning leadoff double, and his first career homer to lead off the next frame. Seven days later, a three-run-shot off Milwaukee closer Corey Knebel gave the Yankees a 5-3 victory, his first walk-off bomb if his career.

Frazier ultimately appeared in 39 games as a rookie, missing time with an oblique injury, and while the team left him off the postseason roster, it looked like a lock that he would fill some kind of role for the 2018 Yankees, with a chance to earn a starting spot out of spring training. And then, everything went sideways.

First, the Yankees added reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, giving the Yankees the most crowded outfield in baseball, with Judge, Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury all under contract (at the time, we didn’t know Ellsbury had played his last game in pinstripes). Then, on February 24, 2018, Frazier suffered the first of many concussions after colliding into the wall. Not only did these injuries limit him to 69 games between Triple-A and the Majors, it also meant that, when the team broke camp in 2019, they wanted Frazier to spend more time in the minors. Of course, the 2019 Yankees being the #NextManUp squad, they needed to recall Frazier almost immediately. The Red Thunder ran with his opportunity, slashing .324/.343/.632 with six home runs in 18 games …. and then sprained his left ankle, becoming the 15th member of the team to hit the injured list.

Upon his return to the lineup in May, Frazier struggled defensively, piling up miscues and errors — and not hitting well enough to overcome the mistakes — to the point that the team sent him down on June 16th after the sudden and unexpected acquisition of Edwin Encarnación. Meanwhile, he reinforced a poor reputation with the media, as he refused to talk to reporters after games and pointedly taking his full contractually-allowed three days to report to Scranton after his demotion. Since Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, and even Cameron Maybin had continued to rake in The Show, the Yankees kept Frazier in the minors the rest of the year, with him making a cameo as a part-time player once the division had been locked up in September to keep the starters healthy down the stretch.

After years of underperformance, controversies, and injuries, the 2020 season represented Frazier’s last chance at making a good impression and carving out a role in the Bronx. Fortunately for him, he delivered. Thanks to injuries to Judge and Stanton, Frazier — fully free of concussion symptoms for the first time since 2018 — found himself penciled into the lineup on pretty much a daily basis, and he responded with a .267/.394/.511 slash line while earning a Gold Glove nomination in what was a weak year for corner outfielders. More importantly, he proved that he could be a positive role model off the field, wearing a mask while playing in order to do his part to slow the spread of COVID-19 during some of the worst days of the crisis — earning him the nickname I still call him today, “The Masked Swinger” (hey, “The Masked Singer” was a pretty fun show to pass the time with during the COVID shutdown).

Unfortunately, that season would prove to be the high point of Frazier’s career, as the young outfielder made a critical mistake. In a game against the Blue Jays that September, No. 77 suffered another concussion, and, afraid of disrupting his breakout campaign, opted not to tell the team. Still suffering from concussion-related symptoms, he began the 2021 season as the team’s everyday left fielder, struggled at the plate and in the field, and was placed on the injured list on July 1st with vision problems and vertigo. When he pulled himself from a rehab game that August, his Yankees career was effectively over. Frazier was designated for assignment that November, as the team turned to trade acquisition Joey Gallo to man left field.

Frazier played the next two years in Chicago, splitting 52 games between the North and South Sides. Ultimately, though, the injuries caught up to him, and after spending 2024 in the Atlantic League with the Charleston Dirty Birds, decided to hang up the spikes.

These days, Frazier hosts a podcast, occasionally making waves as he talks Yankees baseball, and while he often draws ire from fans (and even occasionally former teammates), he has sometimes shed light on the behind-the-scenes workings of the Aaron Boone Yankees. He remains to this day a polarizing figure. Still, as I look back on Frazier’s career on his 32nd birthday, I can’t help but look at those few stretches in which he was healthy and wonder, “What would have happened if Clint Frazier had never crashed into that outfield wall?”

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Mauricio Dubón’s versatile positional weekend in Philadelphia continues with Sunday afternoon’s third game of a four-game set between the Braves and Phillies.

After starting in center field Friday and left on Saturday, Dubón will play shortstop and hit fifth for this 1:10 p.m. ET game on NBC.

That’s one of only a small handful of changes from Saturday’s Atlanta lineup, with the top six hitters remaining the same. Sean Murphy is back behind the plate and hitting seventh, and Mike Yastrzemski takes Dubón’s vacated outfield spot in left and rounds out the lineup.

The Phillies also made only a few changes from their most recent lineup. JT Realmuto gets a somewhat rare day off behind the plate, replaced by Garrett Stubbs, who will hit ninth. Left-handed bats Brandon Marsh (left) Justin Crawford (center) are also both back in the lineup, hitting seventh and eighth, respectively, with the Braves starting right-hander Tyler Mahle on the mound.

Considering the Braves are facing a career Phillies pitcher in right-hander Aaron Nola, it’s no big surprise that collectively they have a lot of career at-bats against him.

Overall, Atlanta’s current hitters are 113-for-388 (.291) against Nola with 22 homers, 56 RBIs, 31 walks and 103 strikeouts.

Ronald Acuña Jr. (21-for-60, four homers, six doubles) and Austin Riley (23-for-66, six homers, five doubles) have had particular success against Nola, each hitting .348 or better against him. There’s no Braves hitter with a glaring weakness against the veteran, with everyone on the roster who has at least 10 at-bats against him hitting .235 or better

The current Phillies hitters are a combined 26-for-101 (.257) against Mahle, having already faced him twice this season back in April when he was with the San Francisco Giants.

Kyle Schwarber (6-for-20, two homers), Trea Turner (8-for-19) and Bryce Harper (4-for-12) have all had good success against the right-hander, but 22 of the 26 hits he’s allowed against them have been singles, with only two homers and two doubles surrendered.

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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have split the first two games of their four-game weekend series in Philadelphia, and things are starting to get chippy.

Philadelphia took issue with Ronald Acuna Jr.’s home run trot on Saturday as the September divisional race gets hot. 

My Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks believe the home side will get their revenge this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch set for 1:10 p.m. ET on Sept. 6.

Who will win Braves vs Phillies today: Phillies (49%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has turned around a rough first half of the season and is showing signs of the Cy Young candidate of previous seasons.

He’s won three of his four starts with a 1.96 ERA, 1.130 WHIP and 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .209 with a 72 OPS+ against him over that span. 

The Atlanta Braves have hit 13% below league average over the past month and averaged less than a homer a game, after hitting 1.4 per game before then.

Look for Nola to keep Atlanta slumping and take Philly down to 54%. 

COVERS INTEL: Nola has been leaning hard on his knuckle curve as he turns around his season, throwing it 33% of the time, nearly 10 percentage points more often than his four-seamer. Batters are hitting .178 against the knuckle curve with a whiff rate of 42.8%. 

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)

The Braves are also starting a pitcher who is turning his season around. Tyler Mahle was 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA with the Giants before being dealt before the August deadline.

Since then, he’s 2-1 and sports a 1.48 ERA with the Braves, with a WHIP below 1.000. He’s cut his walk rate in half, is giving up fewer home runs, and opponents have a .581 OPS against him. 

The Phillies have played to the Under seven times in the last 10 games and scored fewer than five in the last three games. Atlanta has also not been Over in the last three, and the two teams have combined for 13 runs in the first two games of the series. 

Play this to 58%.

Braves vs Phillies home run prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. (20%)

Ronald Acuna Jr. stirred up trouble on Saturday by stopping to admire his 450-foot home run before running the bases. 

Zack Wheeler pointed out that his teammate Kyle Schwarber, who also went deep in the game, has hit more homers than Acuna without showboating. Look for Acuna to respond at the plate.

He’s homered in two of the last three games and is 8-for-14 with five RBI over that span. Acuna has a 224 OPS+ over the last week with a .440/.481/.720 slash line. He’s also hit .333 with 1.068 OPS against Nola in his career with four long balls. 

Play this to 25%.

Braves vs Phillies weather

It will be in the high 70s in Philadelphia, partly cloudy with no chance of rain. 

Braves vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Braves 50% | Phillies 49%
• Run line: Braves -1.5 (38%) | Phillies +1.5 (63%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (47%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Braves vs Phillies trend

The Atlanta Braves have hit the game total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games (+14.65 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.

How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info

Braves vs Phillies latest injuries

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Sunday Funday has arrived, and we’re looking to attack some MLB player propsthis afternoon.

There is plenty to dive into across the player props market, and I’ve found a few spots worth targeting.

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6, including why Elly De La Cruz is going to light up Kyle Harrison.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Kyle Harrison	Over 2.5 earned runs	+125
Spencer Arrighetti	Over 2.5 earned runs	-104
Elly De La Cruz	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-109

Kyle Harrison Over 2.5 earned runs (+125)

Backing the Cincinnati Reds to do anything positive offensively is typically not the most enjoyable activity. However, they draw Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison, who has been struggling in his last five outings, owning a 6.94 ERA and 1.63 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate over 13%.

Harrison draws four elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating over on Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. In that dataset, the left-hander owns poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact, and ground-ball rate.

The reason the Reds are never fun to back is that they strike out at a high rate while being overly inconsistent. However, over their last 12 games, they have a 116 wRC+, .343 wOBA, and .783 OPS. During that stretch, they still have a strikeout rate above 26%, but the bats are hot while Harrison has not been.

If you want to get a lower number, take the Reds' first-five team total at 1.5. The price is around -130.

• Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CIN, BREW

Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 earned runs (-104)

With how putrid Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Spencer Arrighetti has been, he's an auto-fade at this point. The 26-year-old owns the worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current-season dataset, where he has poorly rated matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout, and ground-ball percentages.

He draws a Kansas City Royals lineup with two elite-rated hitters and another with a strong rating. The Royals offense has been pretty solid as of late, generating a ton of hard contact as a whole. Over their last 12 games, they have posted a 120 wRC+, .775 OPS, and .342 wOBA.

Arrighetti owns an ERA above 6.00 no matter how you look at it, whether it's his last three starts, last five starts, or road games this season. He's struggled with a very high walk rate this season, while the Royals do a great job limiting strikeouts and drawing walks.

Do not take this down much further, probably -110 at the most. Search for plus money, even if it's the Royals' first-five team total over 2.5.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109)

One of those elite-rated Reds this afternoon happens to be their star shortstop, Elly De La Cruz, who's been seeing the ball extremely well over his last 10 games. During that span, he has a .615 SLG while producing a 62.1% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate. He is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball.

Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison has been getting torn up by right-handed hitters lately. Over the last 60 he has faced, he is allowing a 19.5% barrel rate, 7.59 HR/9 and just a 31.7% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have a .352 xBA, .670 xSLG, and .519 ISO.

Just numbers we cannot pass up on. On top of that, this price at -109 is a great HRR price for a guy who's always on base and can fly around the basepaths. I’d take this down to -120.

• Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CIN, BREW

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