PCA has snazzy new digs. Life goes on. The players are in the best shape of their lives and will get back after it today against the Rangers. This game is on Marquee/MLB.TV, 1:05 pm local time.
The Cubs set off on the path toward the 2026 regular season on the wrong foot and will have to adjust their steps. I’m going to blame it on the cold as I spent the game wrapped in a blanket, though that hardly explains Porter Hodge’s work on that Friday afternoon in Mesa.
Grant Kipp got the Cubs out of that inning at last, but by then the combination of Taillon and Hodge had allowed six runs, two of which scored on a ringing double that Seiya Suzuki mighta coulda had. PCA probably would have spit on it.
The number of players on the WBC rosters will mean lots of play by irregulars. Suzuki did treat everyone to a center-field blast, and Chas McCormick barreled the ball a couple of times, but there was little in the way of offense on this windy day in the valley.
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MESA, AZ - NOVEMBER 09: Kevin McGonigle #9 of the Detroit Tigers takes batting practice prior to the 2025 Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game between the American League Fall Stars and the National League Fall Stars at Sloan Park on November 9, 2025 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
On Saturday, we get to watch the Detroit Tigers play a baseball game for the first time since their ALDS loss to the Mariners. A lot has happened in the interim, and it’s great to be back.
Truth be told, how to watch Tigers baseball is still up in the air as Grapefruit League action begins on Saturday. Today, the Detroit Tigers matchup on the road against the Yankees at 1:05 p.m. will be free on MLB.tv with their home broadcast team from the YES Network. The Tigers radio broadcast should still be available on all the usual Tigers Radio Network affiliates. We’ll have a gamethread up as usual.
Longer term, how we’ll be watching the Tigers is a little more complicated question to answer.
With the Detroit Tigers taking their broadcasts into their own hands in partnership with MLB this season, the rough outline is clear. A Tigers TV package will be available through MLB.tv and will give in-market fans full streaming access to the Tigers. The broadcasts will be produced with MLB, and still helmed by Jason Benetti and Dan Dickerson, respectively, with Andy Dirks and Dan Petry returning as analysts.
Right now, the broadcast packages at MLB.tv list most of the teams now going direct through MLB’s site for streaming, but Tigers TV wasn’t listed as of Friday night. The decision to part ways with FanDuel Sports Network was pretty recent, and while teams have been preparing contingencies for a long time, we may have to wait a while for a full rollout of the streaming package.
The Tigers return home Sunday and Monday against the Orioles and Twins, and those two openers in Lakeland will be radio broadcast only. Pretty standard stuff for most of spring training. We’ll see if more games are televised this year or not. The next one set to be a Tigers TV game is Wednesday the 25th in a matchup against the Phillies on a split-squad day.
The part of this that will take more time to sort out than Tigers TV, is licensing the broadcasts to cable networks or platforms in the region. We’ll have to wait for further announcements regarding cable providers who will ultimately be partnering with the Tigers and MLB directly now to air the games.
Early in spring training, it’s natural for the overreactions to run a little hot. It’s really best not to read much into performance in the early going especially. It’ll just be great to watch a baseball game.
No doubt, someone’s velocity will be notably down and people will panic in the coming days. Someone else will look incredible and we’ll get too hype. These are spring traditions. Last year, Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling were hurt immediately once exhibition season began, which is a great reminder that the only real goal of spring camp is to get stretched out and built up to game speed without getting hurt. Other than Reese Olson’s unfortunate shoulder surgery, the Tigers injury report is pretty light in camp so far, so let’s keep it that way.
The only starting player still working his way back from something is Dillon Dingler, who had his elbow cleaned out during the offseason, and is still building up his arm strength in a throwing progression. Trey Sweeney is currently out with a shoulder strain, but he was obviously a longshot for the Opening Day roster. A few of their minor league pitchers are still rehabbing something, but overall that’s a pretty good place to start compared to a lot of other teams.
#Tigers medical update: Trey Sweeney suffered a right shoulder strain.
A.J. Hinch: "It came up during drills on the backfields, so we had him seen by a doctor. We're going to pause his throwing. He's still going to do some other defensive things while the soreness calms down." pic.twitter.com/dRifpbWzPr
Keider Montero gets the first start of the year, and his is a pretty interesting case going into the first day of Grapefruit League play. The 25-year-old has been a very helpful depth piece for the Tigers rotation the past two years, but hasn’t made a convincing enough case as a starter yet. On the other hand, he pitched well late in 2025, obviously has the stuff to be a pretty good pitcher, and finished the year in pretty stirring fashion as he tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings in the postseason. With only one option remaining, and Monteroprobably sitting 8th on the starting depth chart, it feels like he’s likely to start the season in the bullpen.
The Tigers really like the idea of multi-inning relievers these days and it’s easy to see why. Once a pitcher is warm and in the game, you’d prefer to push them two innings and have more rest days in between outings, as opposed to pitching a lot of guys for one inning many times in a given week. If the staff stays healthy, they might end up with Montero, Drew Anderson, Troy Melton, Brant Hurter, and Tyler Holton all as guys very comfortable going multiple innings.
Maybe you don’t even bother keeping someone “stretched out” anymore. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to squander Montero or Melton’s arm in Triple-A just to have them stretched out if the tradeoff is a lesser option in the Tigers bullpen instead. Anderson has a major league free agent deal and can’t be optioned. So maybe just cover any minor injury or missed start with bullpen days. Until there’s some longer term attrition in the rotation, perhaps they don’t need to worry about having someone ready to go five innings on a moment’s notice. Just use your pen full of depth starters to handle things, while keeping Will Vest, Kenley Jansen, and Kyle Finnegan in the high leverage spots.
This is all just idle talk of course. Spring training tends to decide in its own way what your pitching staff looks like and what your options are by the time Opening Day arrives. Hopefully they have more options than they know what to do with, but that’s a rare level of abundance in pitching. We’ll just see if Montero can parlay his seasoning of the past two years into more consistent performance in whatever role he lands in.
The Tigers have confirmed that infielder Hao-Yu Lee and outfielder Jahmai Jones will play at some point in Saturday’s game as well. Jake Rogers will DH, and another player worth watching, C/1B Eduardo Valencia, is scheduled to be behind the dish. The 25-year-old Valencia kind of came out of nowhere last season with a massive year in Toledo, but his catching remains the weak side of his game. Saturday will be the first look at Valencia’s defense for most fans.
Kevin McGonigle, shortstop
Of course, here finally is the featured attraction in Saturday’s starting lineup. The really fun thing to watch is Kevin McGonigle starting at shortstop for the Detroit Tigers. He’ll be playing between veteran mentors in Javier Báez at third base, and Gleyber Torres at second. Hinch is getting McGonigle right into the thick of the action.
A.J. Hinch and everyone else knows that McGonigle has some question marks about his development defensively. And a driven player like Kevin McGonigle is 100 percent planning on winning the starting shortstop job out of camp. He’s not thinking about service time. So it feels a bit pointed by Hinch to put him out there on day one. It’s probably going to take a lot to convince the Tigers front office to take him north immediately, but no doubt Hinch is happy to throw him in there, get past any jitters early on, and give him every opportunity to make his case this spring. Whatever his timetable, the experience should be good for the 21-year-old, currently ranked the second best prospect in baseball according to most national rankings.
McGonigle played some third base in the Arizona Fall League, and the Tigers even had Alan Trammell out there coaching him for both positions. After missing time with injuries in 2024 and 2025, the point of the Fall League was probably defensive reps as much as anything to do with his bat.
Everyone believes he’s going to rake, but his defensive ability is the bigger question mark. His arm is modest for a shortstop, and throws deep in the hole are never going to be his forte. On the plus side, he has the speed and hands to be solid there and he’s still only a few years removed from high school. There’s reason to expect him to refine his actions and turn himself into something close to an average shortstop. That would be just fine, assuming he hits as expected, and he could shift off the position to second or third when a better option presents himself.
The top prospects will all be followed closely this spring, and it’s going to be fun to see how they do, but McGonigle vs. the shortstop position will be its own little roster battle to watch play out. It’s not as though Trey Sweeney, Zach McKinstry, or Báez are plus defensive shortstops either. The bar isn’t that high for McGonigle to make it clear he’s their best option.
The Tigers know they need as much Kevin McGonigle as they can get this season without pushing him too hard too fast. The tension between those two ideas will color everything the Tigers top prospect does this spring. Hinch is prepping him for the scrutiny. For his part, McGonigle is a thoughtful young player and his own toughest critic. He seems well positioned to deal with the burden of expectations. He just may need time against good upper level minor league pitching until he’s ready to hit the ground running in the big leagues. At some point this season, he’ll be undeniable. For now, the opportunity to prove he’s ready gets underway on Saturday.
Tigers Baseball is back and we couldn’t be happier.
Kevin McGonigle will start Saturday’s spring training opener at shortstop, perhaps his first of many with the Tigers.@Local4News spoke to Detroit’s top prospect to hear about the journey, what he’s learned from vets and legend Alan Trammell, and why he believes he’s ready now. pic.twitter.com/NJf9bLuRJZ
Feb 20, 2026; Sarasota, Florida, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Elmer Rodriguez (76) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles during spring training at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
The first game of spring means baseball season is officially back, and the Yankees began their 2026 tune-up with an exhibition game in Sarasota against the Baltimore Orioles. They lost 2-0, with the only offense in the game coming from a two-run blast off the bat of Pete Alonso. The Orioles’ new first baseman hit the towering shot off of non-roster invitee Bradley Hanner in the bottom of the sixth and carried Baltimore to victory. It was a silent showing for the Yankees offense, and arguably the biggest story of the day for the Bombers was Elmer Rodríguez.
The Yankees handed the ball to their No. 3 prospect (per MLB Pipeline) and he was able to pitch three scoreless innings with one strikeout, three hits allowed, and no walks in his spring training debut. Rodríguez’s line is more impressive than it looks given that the Orioles lineup looked almost identical to what we will likely see from them on Opening Day, missing just Taylor Ward and Dylan Beavers.
Rodríguez, who spent all of 2025 in High-A and Double-A (with a couple starts in Triple-A at the very end of the season), was tasked with facing Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman, Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser, and more. It started off well, as he retired Henderson, Alonso, and Basallo in order in the first. Rodríguez began the outing with a 97-mph sinker, and induced a groundball from Henderson on the fifth pitch of the at-bat. He needed just two pitches to retire Alonso, dotting a sinker on the inside corner to begin the at-bat and then getting Alonso to chase a slider away and roll over to second base. His only strikeout of the afternoon came against Basallo, who chased a high sinker to end the inning.
Rodríguez began the second by falling behind in the count 2-0 against Tyler O’Neill and allowing a single to left field. He threw a strike on each corner against Cowser, then induced a ground ball on a 1-2 curve for a force out at second. A single from Rutschman put runners on the corners, but a changeup away to Heston Kjerstad turned into an inning-ending double play.
His third and final inning began with two more groundouts from Coby Mayo and Jeremiah Jackson. Gunnar Henderson jumped on a first-pitch sinker misplaced right down the middle, and Alonso stung a sinker towards the gap that was run down on an excellent play by center fielder Kenedy Corona. Rodríguez ended his outing with 42 pitches, 30 of them for strikes.
The spring training outing also means public Statcast data for Rodríguez is now available, and the results back up what we know about him so far. He’s not a pitcher who will blow hitters away with electric stuff, but he possesses a deep arsenal and a mature ability to locate and sequences his pitches well beyond his years. Different models began publishing reports on Rodríguez’s outing shortly after it ended, notably from TJStats and Pitch Profiler, both of whom put Stuff+ grades in the mid-to-low 90s (meaning slightly-below average) on all of his pitches, with the former putting a 101 grade on his slider and the latter putting a 102 grade on his curveball.
This type of profile provides Rodríguez with a rock-solid base for a starting pitcher while also leaving room for him to grow. The below-average stuff grades are a bit concerning at first glance, but as evidenced by pitchers like Trevor Rogers (who Rodríguez coincidentally faced off against in today’s game), there are pathways to success without the sort of electric stuff we’re used to seeing from ace pitchers. Rogers pitched 109 innings in 2025 with a jaw-dropping 1.81 ERA, despite a mediocre 24.3-percent strikeout rate and just a 92 Stuff+ grade (per FanGraphs). He looked very similar today as he did last year, and held the Yankees scoreless through two innings with three strikeouts. Rodríguez could look at today’s counterpart as a model for success.
As far as the eye test, Rodríguez’s start was impressive. His sinker was topping out at 97 mph, and he threw a few devastating 88-90 mph changeups (which appear to have fooled a few of the models that classified them as sinkers, which could potentially be throwing off his model for those pitches). He only induced five whiffs, but he was getting MLB hitters to chase all three of his off speed pitches and ended the day with a 70-percent groundball rate.
Last year was a breakout season for Rodríguez, who pitched 150 innings across three levels and posted a 2.58 ERA between them. He had a 29-percent strikeout rate on the season, so one of the final steps for the minor-league development team will be finding a way to make his ability to miss bats translate at the highest level. He will almost certainly start the season in Triple-A, and is very likely to make his MLB debut in 2026. The Yankees’ starting rotation is deep enough that they should be able to take their time with Rodríguez (barring catastrophe), but he should be knocking around the door by summertime. He climbed all the way to the top of the organization’s farm system last season, and he’ll look to complete his journey in 2026.
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 13: Connelly Early #71 of the Boston Red Sox reacts with Payton Tolle #70 of the Boston Red Sox during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 13, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season. I’ve put the team’s starting options into tiers because that’s how my brain works. Don’t think of them as rankings, but rather buckets based on some similarities I see.
This is where I remind you that these tiers aren’t rankings, but groupings of similar players. Payton Tolle or Connelly Early could end up starting game two or three of a playoff series for the Red Sox and I wouldn’t be overly surprised. With too many options for too few spots, at least one of these two likely starts the season in Worcester.
Payton Tolle
2025 in a sentence: Tolle’s debut set the world on fire, but the rest of his season failed to live up to those heights.
Unless you’re brand new to Red Sox baseball and are truly using this piece to get up to speed on the roster, you probably already have thoughts about Payton Tolle. Everyone who’s followed the offseason knows that Tolle has a great fastball, and nothing else. In his second start, the Arizona Diamondbacks knew that he had nothing else, waited for fastballs, and hit the snot out of them.
Two things can be true at the same time: Tolle has an excellent fastball, and Tolle can’t throw his fastball 65% of the time. While the pitch is outstanding – 97 mph with a flat approach angle and 7.5 feet of extension – it was hit because opponents knew he had to throw it.
In 2024, Garrett Crochet put together a solid season using 54% four-seams and 28% cutters. He mixed in other pitches as well, but the two fastballs accounted for most of his arsenal. You can succeed with just two pitches, but you have to be able to locate them. Crochet spotted his cutter inside to righties and away from lefties consistently. Tolle’s cutter heatmap looked more like a Rorschach test than a game plan. Against righties in particular, Tolle’s cutters found the middle of the plate far too often. If he wants to live with two pitches, he has to locate them well.
Based on Tolle’s quotes this offseason, he doesn’t seem content trying to live with two pitches. He’s mentioned improving his changeup on more than one occasion and said he was throwing a curveball as well. I’ve told everyone willing to listen that he should add a sinker to his mix, and he appeared to be toying with that based on some Trackman live batting practice outputs.
Tolle set the bar for himself impossibly high with his debut against the Pirates. He rose to the majors so quickly that it’s easy to forget that 2025 was his first professional season. He didn’t even have a Wikipedia page at the time he was called up. If Oviedo is a sculpture waiting on the finishing touches, Tolle is a ball of clay that was just harvested from a riverbank or wherever they get clay. Do you harvest clay? Collect it? Is clay even the most common sculpting material? I don’t know. I’m a baseball nerd, not an art geek. Regardless, Tolle can go a million different directions with his arsenal and still has plenty of time to figure it out. The sky’s the limit for the rookie.
2025 in a sentence: Early came out of nowhere and really impressed in a short cameo down the stretch.
Connelly Early started a do-or-die playoff game for the Red Sox last season. I didn’t even include him in last year’s starting pitching preview. I was a nervous wreck before the game, but prime Pedro could have been on the mound, and I still would have been nervous because there’s something wrong with me. The point is, Early was far from the source of my stress, which speaks to how rapid his ascent was.
Early’s debut was equally as impressive as Tolle’s, but it took place in Sacramento at 10 pm EST on a Tuesday, so responsible people were in bed. I was watching and went to bed with my expectations for Early shattered as he struck out 11 over five innings. A week later, he faced the same lineup in Fenway Park and allowed one run over 5.1 innings with a different plan of attack. In his first start, he didn’t throw a single sinker to a right-handed hitter. In the rematch, it accounted for 25% of his arsenal. That level of pitchability from a 23-year-old was surprising, to say the least.
Early faced 22 lefties over his four regular-season starts, surrendering hits to three, walking one, and striking out 13. He also hit one batter. He used a pretty standard approach, throwing sinkers inside and breaking balls away. His sweeper was particularly devastating to lefties, generating ten whiffs on 20 pitches. If there’s a knock on Early against lefties, it’s that he left his four-seam fastball over the plate too frequently. At 94 mph with seven feet of extension and a flat approach angle, he has some room for error, but good hitters will punish these mistakes should they persist.
Righties had more success, hitting .259 and striking out 28.1% of the time as opposed to the 59.1% lefties did, but they still only managed one extra-base hit against the lefty. Early used his four-seam against righties 33% of the time, and it was effective. The 61% strike rate was on the low side for a primary offering, but the 12.5% swinging strike rate and 25% ideal contact rate were each excellent. He was also able to spot first-pitch sliders on the glove side for early strikes. Ahead of righties, he turned to his curveball and changeup. Each pitch generated chases at a high rate, but it was the curveball that got more whiffs. His changeup was the pitch evaluators were most impressed by, but the out-of-zone contact rate was high at 76.5%. The pitch shows great velocity and movement separation from his fastball, so I’d expect that number to fall in a larger sample. A lefty with big extension, a good changeup, and multiple breaking balls he can throw in and out of the zone is basically the ideal pitcher. It’s only a four-game sample, with two games against the A’s, but it’s hard to be anything but excited about Early.
While all of the numbers are impressive, and Early passed the eye test, I do want to pump the brakes a little bit. The lefty has struck out hitters at every level, but he’s also walked them. He walked only four of the 79 hitters he faced in the majors (5.1%), but his much longer minor league career walk rate is 9.1%. The stuff is there, and his command looked refined in his late-season cameo, but don’t be surprised if there are some growing pains in year two.
1998, Flushing, NY, USA; FILE PHOTO; New York Mets pitcher John Franco in action on the mound at Shea Stadium during the 1998 season. Mandatory Credit: RVR Photos-Imagn Images
This post is part of a series of daily questions that we’ll ask the community here at Amazin’ Avenue throughout the month of February. We hope you find the questions engaging and that our prompts can spark some fun conversations in the comments. We’ll see you there and plan to have staff chiming in, too.
How do you feel about Steve Cohen not wanting a captain on the Mets?
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 19: Chase DeLauter #24 of the Cleveland Guardians poses for a portrait during photo day at Goodyear Ballpark on February 19, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We all know that Spring Training results don’t matter, but which players are you most interested in following until Opening Day?
Is it Chase DeLauter and his messianic outfield bat?
Is it Daniel Espino and his inspiring comeback story?
Is it Travis Bazzana and his attempt to justify the Guardians choosing him 1.1?
Is it one of the six starting pitchers competing for a role in the Opening Day rotation?
Is it Peyton Pallette and his Rule 5 selection?
Is it Stuart Fairchild, the Guardians one offseason outfield addition?
Is it David Fry coming back from getting TJ and then getting hit in the face?
Or, is it someone else? Let us know in the comments below!
Feb 11, 2026; Clearwater, FL, USA;Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) runs a drill during spring training during spring training at BareCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
Today is the day. There will be actual baseball on our TV screens (if you’re lucky enough) and we can commiserate together on what the team’s 47th ranked relief prospect looks like in the 8th inning of a spring training game.
CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 02: Logan Allen #26 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts to the camera prior to Game Three of the American League Wild Card Series between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Thursday, October 2, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
After roughly four months of no Guardians baseball, we will now gorge ourselves on two Cleveland spring training games today.
Logan Allen will pitch an inning or two against the Reds and Chase Burns at 3:05PM ET and Joey Cantillo will do the same against Garrett Stallings and the Brewers at 3:10PM ET in split-squad action. We will be doing Spring Training game threads this year so you can discuss both games together here starting at 3PM ET. You can listen to the Guardians-Reds game on Guardians’ radio.
Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Travis Bazzana joined Rosey on Guardians’ Weekly.
Angels’ owner Arte Moreno told the public that winning isn’t one of the top five things Angels fans care about, as fan surveys indicate. Reminds me of “Fan surveys indicate fans want GuardsFest every three years, not annually.” Just lies and gaslighting.
JUPITER, FL - MARCH 14: JJ Wetherholt #7 of the St. Louis Cardinals is seen in the dugout during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on Friday, March 14, 2025 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Jared Blais/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Baseball is back! Spring training opening day has arrived for the Cardinals, which is the perfect time to suspend reality and indulge ourselves in some good old-fashioned optimism. Expectations for the team are at an all-time (or at least this century) low. It is easy for national media types and casual fans to look at the Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras trades and mentally bucket the Cardinals into a rebuilding tier with the Nationals and Angels, or even the White Sox and Rockies as teams that aren’t trying this year. The Cardinals do not belong in that group. This perception of the team has the Cardinals perfectly positioned to shock the baseball world with a few lucky breaks in 2026.
What would constitute shocking the baseball world? Let’s keep it simple and set our eyes on making the playoffs. For a refresher, here are the wins required to make the playoffs since the three-team wild card era began in 2022.
Every team to win 90+ games over the last four seasons has wound up playing October baseball. Arizona won 89 games in 2024 but lost the tiebreaker to the 89-win Braves and Mets. Cincinnati last year is the lone 83-win team to win a wild card spot since 2022. Ten of the 14 teams to win between 84 and 88 games have made the playoffs. Most projections have the Cardinals win total close to the mid-70s (PECOTA notwithstanding), so let’s keep it simple and say that overachieving by about 10 wins will put the Cardinals in a prime position to grab a spot in the postseason tournament.
What Does a Lucky Cardinals Team Look Like?
Before we get into the fantasy portion of today’s proceedings, I wanted to look at how much hope we should have just based on luck. As we are all acutely aware, random variance, unquantifiable dynamics, and supernatural intervention play a huge role every season. The best high-level statistic we have to understand team quality is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is set to 1,000 across baseball each year, so a .500 team would be expected to accrue 33.3 WAR. Conveniently enough, last season, the Cardinals team WAR was 30.4, three less than an average team, which tied out exactly to their 78-win total.
The table below outlines how often, since 2001, teams have over and underperformed their “deserved” win total based on team WAR.
*2020 excluded
68% of the time, a team’s win total has been within five wins in either direction of their expected win total based on WAR. The Cubs have had the single biggest underperforming season winning 67 games in 2002 with a roster led by Sammy Sosa, Matt Clement, and Kerry Wood that produced WAR to support an 82-win team. On the other end of the spectrum, the 2016 Rangers overperformed by 18 wins on the way to a 95-win season.
If the Cardinals are a true talent 75-win team, they should have around a 3% chance of winning 85+ games just based on normal baseball chaos. If you think they are closer to an 80-win team, the chances of random variance increase their odds of winning 85+ games to 16%. As a quick aside, here are the Cardinals over/underperformances over the last 25 years.
The Cardinals’ 50-win overperformance is second in baseball to the Angels at 71 over this timeframe. The Cubs are tied for last at 57 actual wins less than their deserved WAR wins.
What Does a Good Cardinals Team Look Like?
What do the Cardinals look like if they are a legitimately good team in 2026? Every player overperforming or improving by 15% would do the trick… So would Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman combining for 80 home runs and getting MVP votes. These scenarios are too boring and too unlikely, respectively, to spend too much time thinking about. What are some slightly more plausible scenarios that could lead to a summer of competitive baseball? The following aren’t predictions but my best guesses as to what the primary catalyst will be if we find the Cardinals competing for the postseason this September.
In each scenario, I am assuming the rest of the team plays generally as expected.
Scenario 1 – Starting Rotation has the Right Stuff+
Stuff+, a metric that measures a pitcher’s effectiveness based on velocity, movement, release point, etc., ranked the Cardinals starters second to last in baseball at 93 in 2025. Chaim Bloom’s general approach to the pitching staff seems to be geared specifically toward improving this metric. In 2026, Dustin May puts it all together and has a true breakout season. His career Stuff+ is 111, which would have ranked tied for fourth among qualified starters last season. Kyle Leahy continues his trend of improving every year and bursts onto the scene with above average stuff and command to take over as the undisputed number 2 starter behind May. Richard Fitts (103 Stuff+) and Hunter Dobbins (98) replace the abysmal Miles Mikolas (89) and Erick Fedde (91) innings with breakout seasons, combining for 5-6 WAR between them. Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore build on solid 2025 seasons and complete one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
Scenario 2 – Mini MV3
Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, and Ivan Herrera are the best projected players on the position player side of things with a combined 8.5 projected WAR (ZiPS). That is not going to cut it in this version of reality. Winn combines his 2025 defense with a mini offensive breakout to put up 5.5 WAR. Ivan Herrera sticks at catcher while getting plenty of DH at-bats and delivers a 5 WAR season. JJ Wetherholt hits his stride early and often, getting to 4.5 WAR en route to the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Scenario 3 – The Outfield is Really Good
Even the most optimistic current projection system sees the Cardinals as having a bottom 5-10 outfield in baseball. Lars Nootbaar comes back more quickly than expected with his fresh heels and makes his dwindling believers look smart with a 4.5 WAR season. Victor Scott II quietly makes incremental gains in every aspect of his game while getting 600 plate appearances and puts up 3.5 WAR in center field. In right field, Jordan Walker improves to closer to replacement level, but with the Cardinals off to an excellent start, he is replaced as the primary right fielder by Joshua Baez. Baez goes on to hit 26 home runs and challenges Wetherholt for the Rookie of the Year award.
Scenario 4 – Prospects Arrive Early and Often
Quinn Mathews and Joshua Baez make their big league debuts surprisingly early and help keep the Cardinals within shouting distance of the wild card through June. As the deadline approaches and the Cardinals are a few games under .500, Chaim Bloom stays true to his steely-eyed vision and trades Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar, and Jojo Romero. Tink Hence and Cooper Hjerpe are called up to fill innings and immediately supercharge the pitching staff with strikeouts. As September approaches and the Cardinals climb to ten games over .500, the gloves come off with a series of prospect promotions starting with Liam Doyle and finishing with Brandon Clarke and Jurrangelo Cijntje. This scenario sounds the craziest when you try to pick the actual names, but swap any of them out for Blaze Jordan, Chen-Wei Lin, Leonardo Bernal, Ixan Henderson, Luis Gastelum, or any of the deep list of prospects expected to start in Double-A or Triple-A.
Which of these scenarios, or combination of scenarios, do you think is most likely? Is there another you could see being the catalyst to a surprising season? Let’s play ball.
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 29: Jordan Montgomery #47 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox during a Grapefruit League spring training game at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 29, 2020 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Spring games are underway, and the Yankees will take the field with the majority of their full squad for the first time this year. It won’t be for long, of course, but those first couple of innings broadcasting on YES are bound to bring some serotonin with them. With that comes the caveat that backups will take their place shortly thereafter, with sprinklings of prospects getting a look here and there. On the road it’ll be even more sparse to see the starters, as the season opener showcased, which begs the question: just how much of spring actually catches your attention?
For most, spring is a ball of excitement for a couple of days and then the monotony sets in and pleas are made to fast forward time just a little bit to get to games that matter. It’s hard to invest totally into exhibitions even for the most plugged-in and invested fans when the stats won’t matter, the results are skewed by varying talent levels on a given day’s roster, and most players are working more on timings and pitch adaptations than trying their hardest to win.
For some, this is part of the fun of it all — baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and the contributions of guys slotted to start in Double-A at the start of the year can be surprisingly consequential depending on if things go really well for them or really, really bad for the big leaguers. Getting to see guys that won’t get the spotlight right away can be a breath of fresh air, and there’s always a name or two that catches people’s eyes with a highlight spring even though they’re nowhere near the majors yet. Building the hype early can lead to an enormous payoff in a year or two when the same kid comes back to camp ready to take on a role at the highest level.
There’s even a few who won’t care at all about spring — until the Yankees are playing in the Bronx, it just doesn’t matter to ‘em. What camp do you fall in, and what’s your reasoning for it? Personally, I’m always at least a little invested throughout spring, as it can lead to guys like Jordan Montgomery turning enough heads to take a rotation spot when they were far down on the depth chart to open camp. It’s harder to see splashes like that with a roster like this year’s team, but there’ll be a dark horse somewhere, I’m sure of it.
We’ve got just a couple of things to note before we get ready for the Yankees’ spring home opener. Nolan takes a look at Elmer Rodriguez’s promising start in the Grapefruit League season opener after the top pitching prospect tossed three scoreless innings, and then Nick wishes a happy birthday to a Yankee that came up for a brief stint with the 1990 Yankees and delivered a shot of adrenaline to a down-on-their luck team: Oscar Azócar.
Daily workouts are wrapping up in Clearwater, a prelude to what will play out once Grapefruit League games begin Saturday.
The Phillies brought 30 non-roster invites to camp, including top prospect Aidan Miller and soon-to-be center fielder Justin Crawford.
Most of the lineup is set. Most of the rotation is, too — with Zack Wheeler expected to miss the start of the season. But the bench and the bullpen still have room, and live reps will decide it.
Here are a few battles to watch as games get going:
Backup catcher
Rafael Marchán vs. Garrett Stubbs
You’re not counting on strong offense from either Marchán or Stubbs. This one is more about the pitching staff’s comfort level, plus the defensive traits that matter most in today’s game.
Marchán has flashed with the bat before. He posted an .894 OPS in 56 plate appearances in 2024 and hit a go-ahead homer against the Dodgers last season that helped the Phillies win that regular-season series. The 5-foot-9, 170-pound switch-hitter is also a career .280 hitter with a .787 OPS vs. lefties.
But the separator is defense. With ABS arriving, catching value outside framing carries more weight. Marchán ranked in the 96th percentile in pop time (1.88) last season and was well above average in caught stealing above average, per Statcast.
Stubbs is on a split deal, which gives the Phillies flexibility to send him to Lehigh Valley. His best big league work came in 2022, when he slashed .264/.350/.462 in 46 games. He has hit .205 since. Even with some success at Triple-A last season, it may be an uphill climb for the 32-year-old to crack the roster.
Prediction: Marchán
Fourth bench spot
Johan Rojas vs. Dylan Moore vs. Bryan De La Cruz
This is where a left-handed bat would have fit cleanly, with Marchán, Edmundo Sosa and Otto Kemp likely filling out most of the bench. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (Phillies’ No. 7 prospect per MLB Pipeline) looked like a natural Max Kepler replacement, but he’s dealing with a knee injury and likely won’t be back until mid-Grapefruit League.
So the Phillies are left with three right-handed options, all with big league experience, and none with a strong offensive résumé to lean on.
Rojas is the speed-and-defense play, and he becomes more relevant if the club has any concern about Justin Crawford’s early defense in center. After a strong 59-game debut in 2023 (.302 average), Rojas has posted a .591 OPS over the last two seasons. He has 51 steals in the big leagues with an 87.9 percent success rate.
Even in limited chances last year, he ranked in the 99th percentile in sprint speed and his 92.5 mph average throw sat in the 94th percentile in arm strength.
Moore offers versatility. Despite being a career .206 hitter, he’s played every position except catcher. He’s a former Gold Glove winner and has been better against lefties (career .727 OPS).
That platoon value overlaps with Kemp and Sosa, so Moore’s best path is defense and flexibility, plus showing enough of the quality-of-contact flashes he’s had in spurts.
De La Cruz has the stronger track record at the plate. He has slugged 18-plus homers in two of his five big league seasons, but the production hasn’t always come with on-base value. In his 21-homer season two years ago, he posted a .271 OBP.
There’s swing-and-miss, limited plate discipline and defensive questions. Still, he’s coming off an MVP winter in the Dominican League, and a strong spring could tighten this decision.
One other factor: Moore’s deal pays up to $3 million if he breaks camp and reaches incentive thresholds. The Phillies are already deep into luxury tax territory, so it’s hard to see them taking on extra cost unless he clearly wins the job.
Prediction: Rojas
Long man
Bryse Wilson vs. Yoniel Curet
This role exists largely because Wheeler won’t be ready. If Wheeler were healthy, Taijuan Walker would be the obvious swingman after doing it last season. There’s also a world where the Phillies add another starter before Opening Day. Either way, this might be the most cutthroat roster spot in camp.
The Phillies’ starter Saturday is Wilson. He has swingman experience, and across two seasons in Milwaukee (2023-24), he pitched 87 games (nine starts) with a 3.42 ERA in 181.1 innings. His results cratered with the White Sox last year, posting a 6.65 ERA.
Wilson isn’t overpowering, but if he looks closer to the Milwaukee version, he becomes a sensible insurance arm.
Aug 24, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Bryse Wilson (46) throws a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the ninth inning at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum (Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports)
Curet is the upside play. The Phillies acquired the 23-year-old at the Winter Meetings. In Tampa Bay’s system, he posted a 3.10 ERA across 80 professional starts (plus 17 relief outings) with 486 strikeouts in 371.1 innings. If the Phillies stretch him out in games, the upper-90s fastball that can touch triple digits will stand out.
Curet has a minor league option, which matters. That gives Wilson a real edge.
Prediction: Wilson
Two more bullpen spots open
This is a diverse mix. Dombrowski and the front office loaded camp with enough arms to force real competition.
Right-handers Jonathan Bowlan (Matt Strahm trade), Chase Shugart, Zach Pop, Rule 5 pick Zach McCambley and former Phillie Lou Trivino are all in the mix, along with left-hander Kyle Backhus.
Bowlan has the best pure “stuff” in the group. He has a five-pitch mix highlighted by a four-seamer that’s hard to square up. In 2025, among 357 pitchers who threw at least 200 four-seamers, Bowlan posted the highest swing-and-miss rate on the pitch (43.5 percent).
Shugart posted a 3.40 ERA in the Pirates’ bullpen last season. Pop has struggled in recent big league looks. McCambley got Rule 5’d after a 2.90 ERA in 67 Triple-A innings with Jacksonville. And Trivino was sharp in his opportunities with the Phillies, posting a 2.00 ERA in 10 appearances in 2025.
Backhus is the wild card. The lefty throws from a sidearm slot — the fourth-lowest arm angle among left-handed pitchers — with a low-velocity, funky mix that can make hitters uncomfortable quickly.
If the Phillies want to keep the bullpen roles clean, the simplest outcome is one righty and one lefty — and the two most logical fits are the two trade adds.
TEMPE, - MARCH 16: A general view of the field prior to the 2024 Spring Breakout Game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels at Tempe Diablo Stadium on Saturday, March 16, 2024 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Marison Bilagody/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The first game of the spring for the Dodgers is finally here on Saturday afternoon, with a bus ride to Tempe to face the Angels at Diablo Stadium.
José Soriano will start on the mound for the Angels, who according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register “will have almost their entire projected everyday lineup when they face the Dodgers in the first Cactus League exhibition game on Saturday,” though Mike Trout is not expected to start.
Austin Wells challenged a pitch in the fourth inning, trying to get a ball turned into a strike for his pitcher, Jake Bird.
Austin Wells is pictured during the Yankees’ spring training session Feb. 15. Charles Wenzelberg
But the ABS system showed Bird’s curveball was, in fact, well below the zone, as the Yankees lost a challenge.
Caught my eye
Center fielder Kenedy Corona provided the web gem of the day, diving into the gap to make a grab and rob Pete Alonso of extra bases.
The non-roster invitee won a minor league Gold Glove in 2023.
Tomorrow’s schedule
Top pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange will start the Yankees’ Grapefruit League home opener against the Tigers, with Aaron Judge among the regulars expected to be in the lineup.
Nolan McLean and Juan Soto had an epic 10-pitch battle during the Mets' spring training session Friday.
Observations from Mets’ spring training on Thursday:
Old school
There was no ABS during Friday’s live batting practice at-bat between Juan Soto and Nolan McLean.
When there was a questionable call, Soto suggested a game of Rock Paper Scissors.
Juan Soto reacts during the Mets’ live batting practice on Feb. 20, 2026. Corey Sipkin for the NY PostNolan McLean throws a pitch during live batting practice on Feb. 20. Corey Sipkin for the NY Post
Soto won the contest, which led to a 10-pitch battle between the two that featured nothing but fastballs and ended in a Soto groundout.
Heads up
Ben Rortvedt, who battled plenty of injuries during his two years with the Yankees, managed to hit his head — twice — on a camera attached to the net right behind home plate during an at-bat in live batting practice.
Fortunately, he escaped unscathed as he looks to stick with the Mets after joining the organization last week.
Caught my eye
Brett Baty is dealing with right hamstring discomfort, but he’s been able to get in some work at first base as he looks to gain more versatility.
He’s looked fairly comfortable there in early drills.
Saturday’s schedule
It’s the Mets’ Grapefruit League opener against Miami at Clover Park at 1:10 p.m.
Lefty Brandon Waddell is set to get the start for the Mets, with at least several regulars expected to be in the lineup.
SARASOTA, Fla. — In case there was any doubt left that Pete Alonso has moved on from the Mets and embraced his new home, he was in the middle of an interview — after staying in his spring debut with the Orioles an extra inning so he could crush a home run — when he stopped in his tracks.
John Denver’s “Thank God I’m a Country Boy,” the song played during the seventh-inning stretch of every game at Camden Yards, came on the speakers at Ed Smith Stadium.
“I really love this song,” a grinning Alonso said. “This is going to be really fun this year.”
Pete Alonso rounds the bases after homering for the Orioles’ 2-0 spring training win over the Yankees on Feb. 21, 2026. Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post
No, the slugging first baseman is not in Queens anymore.
Alonso is still wearing orange (a slightly different shade) and beating up on the Yankees (albeit this time in a game that did not count), but he looked right at home in an Orioles uniform as he delighted his new fans by doing what he does best: crushing baseballs.
“I feel honored to wear it,” Alonso said during the Orioles’ 2-0 win over the Yankees. “I feel great in it. I feel like I look good in it. It’s fantastic, I honestly couldn’t feel any better.”
Most of the Orioles regulars exited the Grapefruit League opener after the fifth inning, but Alonso wanted to stay in one more frame so he could take another at-bat. He had been robbed of extra bases in his second at-bat, on a diving grab by center fielder Kenedy Corona, but made the third one worth it.
He saw a curveball over the plate from non-roster right-hander Bradley Hanner and clobbered it 107.2 mph over the left-field fence.
It offered a reminder of the challenge the Yankees will be facing twice as often this season than when Alonso was with the Mets, though he still did plenty of damage then — clubbing 11 home runs in 32 career games in the Subway Series.
First baseman Pete Alonso flies out to center field during the third inning of the Orioles’ spring training win over the Yankees on Feb. 21, 2026. Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post
“I feel like he’s done some damage against us — he’s hurt us,” manager Aaron Boone said before the game. “He’s gotten some big hits against us, some big homers against us. So hopefully we can do a better job of slowing him down a little bit. But he’s a huge presence in a lineup, and a guy that’s been incredibly durable, too. He’s a guy that goes to the post all the time. To have that 40-homer guy in the middle, night in and night out, lengthens their lineup.
“And it’s a lineup over there that has a chance to be really good.”
The Orioles-Yankees rivalry is a little different than Mets-Yankees, but Alonso said he was looking forward to it.
“It’s always fun because Yankee Stadium, it’s a really great place to play, fun place to hit,” he said. “Obviously they have really good teams. When you play against good teams, it makes for good competition.
“For me, I’m looking forward to this next chapter. It’s going to be really exciting going to war with this team that we got here. I’m really excited.”
