Category: Baseball

I almost forgot that there was an afternoon game. It’s a busy day. I’m going to post this early, so I don’t forget to.

There were a couple of roster moves:

• Trey Yesavage to the IL.
• Chad Dallas to Buffalo. Might as well use up the five times you can send a guy down. And he won’t be able to pitch today.
• Chase Lee is back.
• As is Lazaro Estrada, who can come back because Yesavage is going on the IL.

Also Vlad is getting the day off. He looked like he was dealing with pain yesterday. They say it is just a day off, but I think there is a let’s rest the hamstring component to it.

TODAY’S GAME: The first-place Houston Astros (59-56) will host the Toronto Blue Jays (53-61) today for a matinee rubber game in the finale of their three-game series in Houston.

Astros ace RHP Hunter Brown (3-1, 3.42 ERA) will get the start for the Astros today opposite the Blue Jays and RHP Jameson Taillon (2-6, 5.92 ERA), who was named today’s starter just prior to last night’s game.

WINNING WAYS: The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 games dating back to July 20. This streak has put the Astros at a season-high three games over .500, a mark they’ve been at twice this season at 6-3 (April 4) and 58-55 (Aug. 2).

THE TURNAROUND: After a slow start to the season, the Astros are 39-25 since May 22, which is the second-best record in the AL in that span. On that date, the Astros were 20-31, 11 games under, which is their low water mark for the season.

Winning Percentage since May 22, AL

1. Red Sox 39-24 (.619)

2. Astros 39-25 (.609)

3. Tigers 35-27 (.565)

THAT’S OFFENSIVE: The Astros lead the AL in runs scored (536), SLG (.416), and OPS (.738), while ranking second in home runs (156), batting average (.246), OBP (.322) and hits (955). In the Majors, the Astros rank third in homers, trailing only the Nationals (166) and Yankees (164).

THE LINEUP: The Astros have used 113 different lineups in their 115 games, repeating a lineup just twice on the season, which includes using the same lineup on Monday and Tuesday. DH Yordan Alvarez has the most starts at any spot in the lineup among Astros, hitting second 102 times.

ASTROS-JAYS: The Astros have played just 90 games against the Blue Jays in their franchise history, which are their fewest against any single opponent. Their .567 all-time winning percentage against the Blue Jays is their second-highest against any opponent, bested only by their record against the Angels (144-92, .610).

DIESEL POWER: RHP Hunter Brown will make his 11th start of the season and his ninth since returning from a lengthy stint on the IL with a right shoulder strain. He has shown some rust upon his return, going winless in his first six starts back, but has rebounded to go 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA (2ER/12.2IP) in his last two starts.

YESTERDAY’S TRADE: The Astros made one trade on Monday, acquiring OF Daulton Varsho and cash from the Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Spencer Arrighetti. Varsho, 30, was activated on Monday and started the first two games of this series for the Astros, batting cleanup in both contests.

MVP-CALIBER: Yordan Alvarez leads the AL in all three Triple Crown categories, ranking first in batting average (.329), HR (35), and RBI (84). Additionally, he leads MLB in OPS (1.087), OBP (.443), SLG (.644), and TB (264)…in the AL, he ranks first in hits (135), extra-base hits (59), and runs (78), and second in walks (80).

HEAVY TRAFFIC: DH Yordan Alvarez has reached base safely in 20 straight games (since July 10), batting .423 (30×71) with 16 runs, eight doubles, six home runs, 17 RBI, 21 walks, a .559 OBP and a 1.348 OPS during the streak. Alvarez also has onbase streaks of 25 games (May 22-June 19) and 22 games (April 4-28) this season.

STREAK SNAPPED: SS Jeremy Peña had his career-high 15-game hitting streak snapped last night, in which he hit .422 (27×64) with three doubles, one triple, seven homers, 15 RBI and a 1.292 OPS. Peña’s streak was the longest streak by an Astro since 3B Alex Bregman had a 16-game streak from May 28-June 15, 2024.

VENEZUELAN HIT KINGS: 2B Jose Altuve went 3×4 last night and has multiple hits in each of his last three games, raising his career hits total to 2,473, which now ranks fourth in Major League history among Venezuelan-born players.

Hits Among Venezuelan-born Players (MLB history)

1. Miguel Cabrera: 3,174

2. Omar Vizquel: 2,877

3. Luis Aparicio: 2,677

4. Jose Altuve: 2,473

CHIPPING IN: Several Astros are on mini hot streaks, including OF Taylor Trammell, who’s hit three homers with seven RBI and a 1.068 OPS in his last nine games. C Yainer Diaz has hit safely in five of his last seven games, batting .500 (13×26) with two home runs, four RBI and a 1.231 OPS in that span. RF Cam Smith has hit safely in six straight games, batting .385 (10×26) with two doubles, one triple, four RBI and a .945 OPS during his streak.

STALKING 500: RHP Bryan Abreu has 499 career strikeouts, needing just one strikeout to reach 500 for his career…he would become just the fourth reliever in franchise history to record 500 strikeouts with the club, joining LHP Billy Wagner (694), RHP Brad Lidge (557) and RHP Dave Smith (529).

TODAY IN ASTROS HISTORY: 1994 – 1B Jeff Bagwell goes 3×4 with a double, homer and five RBI in the Astros 12-4 win over the Giants at the Astrodome. That night, Bagwell records homer number 38, extra-base hit number 69, and RBI number 112 on the season, all new single-season club records at the time. Bagwell would play another five games that season before a broken hand and the players strike ended his year.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 1:10 p.m. CT

Location: Daikin Park, Houston, TX

TV: SCHN, SCHN 2

Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)

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It’ll be up to Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners to put an end to the Detroit Tigers’ four-game winning streak at T-Mobile Park tonight, with Detroit coming into this one as a +140 underdog at Polymarket.

However, the Mariners ace owns the worst xERA of his career, and his recent struggles are the reason I’ll be backing the Tigers on the road.

Let’s get into my Tigers vs. Mariners prediction as part of my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5.

Who will win Tigers vs Mariners tonight: Tigers moneyline (+140)

The Seattle Mariners have a Bryan Woo problem — he’s given up 10 earned runs across his last 10 innings — and it won’t get any easier against a Detroit Tigers team that has put up 63 runs over their last six games. To put it mildly, it’s the hottest offense in baseball, ranking seventh-highest in WRC+ during the season — we’ll take that to the bank.

Woo is coming into his bump day with a career-high xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and xERA (3.54). It gets even worse against a Tigers lineup that rocked him for five earned runs on nine hits back in June. I’m expecting a ton of traffic on the base paths as a result.

Detroit counters with opener Drew Anderson, who’s limiting the Mariners to a .375 xSLG across a smaller sample size (14 at-bats). I’d price the Tigers closer to +120, so I'll take this value and run with it.

COVERS INTEL: When Bryan Woo gets hit, he gets hit hard. His 42.5% hard-hit rate is in the 22nd percentile of all qualified MLB starters. He's served up four homers across his last four starts as a result.

Tigers vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-103)

We’re taking a shot at Woo’s struggles, Detroit’s bullpen, and riding recent MLB trends to get the job done for us tonight.

There are just too many variables pointing toward another short outing from Woo. While the strikeout numbers are still average this season, his career-high 42.5% hard-hit rate is impossible to ignore against an offense as hot as Detroit’s. On the other side, expect the opener in Anderson to last a maximum of two frames before turning the ball over to the bullpen — that’s just far too many innings to cover.

The Tigers and Mariners are a combined 17-3 to the Over across their last 10 games played, with Seattle ranking as the eighth-best Over team in baseball (hitting at a 53.3% clip). And the icing on the cake? The Over is 6-0 across Woo’s last six starts.

Tigers vs Mariners weather

It's shaping up to be a perfect night of baseball in Seattle tonight, with clear skies and temperatures sitting at 68°F come first pitch. We'll see little to no impact on game conditions as a result.

Tigers vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Tigers +140 | Mariners -150
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-150) | Mariners -1.5 (+144)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-100) | Under 7.5 (-104)

Tigers vs Mariners trend

To say the Tigers are heating up would be an understatement. Across their four-game winning streak, they lead MLB in runs, hits, RBI, XBH, and OPS. The bandwagon is loading up — hop on in. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mariners.

How to watch Tigers vs Mariners and game info

Tigers vs Mariners latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are moving on from one of their major offseason acquisitions. 

Broadcaster Mike Rodriguez reported Aug. 5 that the team has released designated hitter Marcell Ozuna, who signed a one-year deal worth $12 million in February. The two sides had a mutual option for 2027. 

Ozuna, a 14-year MLB veteran, consistently struggled at the plate this season, hitting .203 with eight home runs, 29 RBI and a .612 OPS in 70 games. He became a weak point for an offense that’s become one of the best in baseball. The Pirates enter action Wednesday with the MLB lead in hits at 1,027, and they rank third in runs scored (584) behind just the Washington Nationals (610) and Chicago Cubs (585.) 

Required Reading: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Accompanying offseason additions by GM Ben Cherington have been a major reason for the offensive surge. Second baseman Brandon Lowe was acquired in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and has hit 23 homers so far this season. Injured first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn has added 17 blasts after signing a two-year deal.

Hopes were high that Ozuna could perform similarly. He hit 39 homers and earned an All-Star nod with the Atlanta Braves in 2024 and was still a reliable hitter in 2025, when he hit 21 homers and posted a .756 OPS. However, his numbers improved only modestly from a .181 batting average in April, and he’d skidded to a .216 mark in July. 

In the corresponding roster move, outfielder Ronny Simon is expected to be promoted from Class AAA Indianapolis. He’s performed well in the minors this season, hitting .330 with seven homers, 53 RBIs and an .889 OPS. 

The Pirates enter Aug. 5 3.5 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the National League’s final wild-card playoff spot. They have not reached the MLB postseason since 2015 and have not posted a winning record since 2018. 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Pittsburgh Pirates release DH Marcell Ozuna amid offensive struggles

He has injected energy and contact ability into the Phillies lineup already and it’s only been one game. Luis Arraez is a player straight out of the 1980’s with the ability to put the bat on the ball and should be a player that is loved in this city. Here is some merch that you can grab to celebrate his arrival.

You can find that shirt by clicking here.

Maybe you’ve been swayed by Derek Hill and his endless supply of huge hits for the Phillies. Seems as though we can’t talk about the trade deadline without talking about Hill and how much of a lift he has given the team. You can grab some merch for him as well.

You can grab that piece here.

Tuesday night was destined to be the George Lombard Jr. Show in the Bronx once news broke that he would be promoted following an ugly loss on Monday to St. Louis. The 21-year-old made an immediate impact, showing off some slick defense while also belting his first career homer off Hunter Dobbins in a still-all-too-familiar, tight 2-0 Yankees win. As it turned out, the Yanks needed what Lombard and the pitching staff provided because their biggest opponents kept the heat on them. The Rays remain 3.5 up on New York and Boston is a mere couple games behind.

Here’s what was going on around the Junior Circuit yesterday.

Tampa Bay Rays (67-46) 9, Colorado Rockies (45-69) 7 – 11 innings

Ah Coora, you beautiful bastard, you’ve done it again. The Rays were sitting pretty early on Tuesday night in Denver, thanks to in-state Trade Deadline acquisition Liam Hicks. Making his debut for Tampa Bay, the catcher crushed a pitch from Gabriel Hughes 402 feet for a grand slam that changed the score from a 1-1 tie in the third to 5-1, Rays.

Hughes did at least get back on track to get through 5.1 innings without surrendering another run, and then the odd trio of Brennan Bernardino, Parker Mushinski, and Juan Mejia held the Rays off the board into the ninth.

That was swell for Colorado because Freddy Peralta did not have nearly as good a debut as his batterymate. Perhaps it was just a tough draw for him to start a new chapter at Coors or perhaps he isn’t that different yet from the offseason prize who was awful for the Mets. Regardless, his 2026 ERA inflated to 5.37 as the Rockies mounted a comeback, hanging seven runs on nine hits off Peralta, who recorded just 11 outs. Ezequiel Tovar chipped away with an RBI knock in the home half of the third before the just-extended Mickey Moniak (alrighty then, Rockies) tied it up with a three-run bomb.

The next inning, Willi Castro put Colorado ahead with a two-run homer to make it 7-5, Rockies. Thanks to the yeoman work of the bullpen, the score stayed their until the ninth. Unfortunately, the Rockies’ closer is apparently Jordan Romano, who Yankees fans know all too well and has also been run out of town as a high-leverage guy in Toronto, Philadelphia, and Anaheim within the past few years.

A walk, an infield hit, two stolen bases, and a Jonathan Aranda laser later, the game was tied at 7-7. Romano did fan Junior Caminero and get a groundout by Ryan Vilade to strand Aranda in scoring position and keep the score even. The Rockies had multiple chances to walk this off. Tovas doubled against Kevin Kelly with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, but Jake McCarthy hit a comebacker to force extras.

Jimmy Herget’s scoreless 10th opened the door for an easy game-winner. Tyler Freeman bunted the winning run to third with one out for All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman, who could win it with a hit or a deep fly ball. He didn’t hit it far enough to right, and the zombie runner McCarthy had to hold at third. T.J. Rumfield then lined out to left and it went to the 11th. There, the Rays stopped playing with their food and won the damn thing. A bunt and a wild pitch plated their zombie runner, and they tacked on insurance with a Yandy Díaz double and Caminero RBI single. Bryan Baker pitched a perfect 11th to put the Rockies away.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (61-51) 14, Chicago White Sox (59-53) 2: This all-Sox battle got bad for the Pale Hose in a hurry. The Regression Monster continued to do a number on Davis Martin, as those scalding-hot Red Sox obliterated him with a six-run first inning that featured back-to-back homers from Caleb Durbin (a grand slam) and Jarren Duran. Wilyer Abreu hit one out off Martin as well, and he had nine runs to his name by the time he left the mound. Abreu homered again in the eighth, and he was one of seven Red Sox to register a multi-hit game. Cripes! Since losing a series in Coors in mid-June to fall to 32-46, Boston is 29-5. I don’t care for it, personally.

Cleveland Guardians (57-57) 2, New York Mets (48-66) 6: Don’t look now, but the Guardians might be squandering not only their absolutely-coveted spot in this daily feature, but also playoff position. The AL Central in general (see the White Sox score above) has been sagging to the point where it could be neck-and-neck between them and the AL West down the stretch for MLB’s worst division. A universe exists where there could be two sub-.500 division winners in October. I don’t think it will happen, but it’s quite sad that it’s plausible.

Despite getting José Ramírez back on July 21st, Cleveland has played horribly since then, dropping 9 of 12 games. You can’t be losing home games to the post-sale Trade Deadline Mets, and yet they did just that. Luis Torrens clobbered a three-run homer against Joey Cantillo to start the scoring in the second, and Bo Bichette played long ball in the third. A resurgent Sean Manaea spun six innings of two-run ball to hold off the Guardos. Cleveland is .500 but remains three games behind the White Sox in the AL Central, but they’re now only one up on the Twins and Rangers and a game and a half ahead of the Orioles and Tigers (yes, really to both) for the final Wild Card spot.

Houston Astros (59-56) 7, Toronto Blue Jays (53-61) 2: With an assist from the Giants’ Jung Hoo Lee, Baby Bomber alum Ezequiel Duran walked it off for the Rangers on Tuesday night, so the heat was on Houston to bounce back from a loss to Toronto on Monday and maintain their 2.5-game AL West lead. The Astros were up to the task, aided by the unfortunate news of Trey Yesavage leaving the mound for Toronto with left knee discomfort (an MRI is on deck). Perhaps appropriately, Houston was not intimidated by his replacement, Chad Dallas. The ’Stros scored six runs on seven hits in three innings against Dallas, with Taylor Trammell launching a three-run homer as part of the attack. One-time Yankees pitching prospect Hayden Wesneski tossed six innings of two-run ball in the win, his second MLB start since returning from Tommy John surgery.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have released designated hitter Marcell Ozuna amid months of poor performance with the team.

The Pirates signed Ozuna in the offseason to be their everyday DH following their decision to not resign Andrew McCutchen. The 35-year-old former Silver Slugger signed to a one-year, $12 million deal with Pittsburgh with a mutual option attached for 2027. Unfortunately for the Pirates Ozuna never found his stride with the Pirates.

PNC Park is notoriously difficult to adjust to for right-handed hitters, and Ozuna who historically struggled there throughout his career never seemed to come around at the plate. He ends his season with Pittsburgh with a line of .203/.286/.613 and just eight homers. Over the course of his career Ozuna has played in 65 games at PNC Park and has a .229 batting average with seven homers. As a Pirate the team went 28-42 when Ozuna was in the starting lineup.

As the season went on Ozuna was called upon less and less as his performance had not reached the full potential that the organization had hoped for. He played in his last game for the Bucs on Aug. 1 where he went 1 for 4 with a double in a Saturday contest against Cincinnati. His slash line was 31% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+ and had a career worst 28.6% strikeout rate. The leash was too long and this is an issue that should’ve been solved well before the second half of the season.

To replace Ozuna the Pirates are calling up prospect Ronny Simon to the active roster. This season Simon has been incredible at the plate with Triple-A Indianapolis. This year the switch hitter leads the International League with a .330 batting average. Simon has also knocked in seven home runs this season along with 63 RBIs and 33 steals as well. Simon is a versatile defender who has seen time at second base, as well as all three outfield positions for Indianapolis this year.

Given that the league has moved past the trade deadline period, Ozuna will be released and the Pirates will not be able to move on from his contract. He leave Pittsburgh with a -1.0fWAR.

Once again, there’s a chance of rain in Chicago Wednesday afternoon, though chances are decreasing. Just in case, here’s the local radar for you to keep handy:

Wednesday notes…

• GOING FOR A SWEEP: This is the 11th of the Cubs’ 37 series this year in which they won the first two games. They won the third game, too, in six of the previous 10. They last swept the Dodgers in three games at home in 2021. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• DAY vs. NIGHT: The Cubs are only 24-23 in day games this year. They are 17-13 at home, including 8-4 after night games. Last year, they were 43-32 in sunshine everywhere and 29-20 at home but 7-8 in day games at home after night games. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• COMING FROM BEHIND: Last night’s win was the Cubs’ 25th this season after their opponent scored first, one less than they had all of last year, when they won 26 and lost 52. They have lost 34 this year.
• They are 14-19 at home when they opponent scored first. They finished last year just 9-29. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• GOING DEEP: The Cubs have hit four and two home runs the last two games. They had not had back-to-back games with multiple homers in their previous 25 games, since they hit five and a team-record eight at home against the Padres on June 30 and July 1. They have hit at least two homers in two consecutive games five times. They did it in three straight games April 15-18 and June 20-24, and in five games in a row April 21-25. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Cubs lineup:

Dodgers lineup:

Shōta Imanaga, LHP vs. Eric Lauer, LHP

Shōta Imanaga, as you know, had a great start to his 2026 season, then had a horrific four-start run, then followed that with another great run. Currently over his last nine starts: 2.09 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, seven HR in 51.2 innings, excellent walk rate (4.5 percent).

He was charged with five runs (four earned) against the Dodgers April 26 at Dodger Stadium, though one of those runs scored after he left the game. Current Dodgers are batting .247 (20-for-61) against him with six home runs, three of those by Tommy Edman. Note to Shōta: Don’t feed meatballs to Edman!

Roki Sasaki was originally scheduled to start this game, but with the Dodgers’ addition of Tarik Skubal, Sasaki has been pushed back and instead, lefty Eric Lauer will go for L.A. this afternoon.

Lauer was pitching for the Blue Jays earlier this year and not well — 6.69 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in eight games (six starts). The Dodgers got him for cash considerations in May and poof! He’s throwing very well for them. In nine games (eight starts) he has a 2.69 ERA and 0.987 WHIP. In his last outing, July 29 vs. the Mariners, he threw six one-hit innings.

He hasn’t faced the Cubs since April 2, 2023 when he was with the Brewers and I post that boxscore link mostly for amusement value, because a lot of those guys aren’t on the team anymore. Current Cubs are batting .265 (18-for-68) against Lauer with two home runs (Nico Hoerner, Michael Conforto).

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network. It’s also on MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Dodgers market territories).

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Dodgers site True Blue LA. If you do go there to interact with Dodgers fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing went from minor arm irritation to the injured list with elbow inflammation, to now a slight tear in his ulnar collateral ligament that will sideline him for at least a month.

Manager Dave Roberts confirmed to reporters on Tuesday night at Wrigley Field that MRI results Monday showed a “slightly torn” UCL in Rushing’s elbow. From Jack Harris of the California Post:

Roberts expounded after Tuesday’s game by saying Rushing will remain on a hitting program, but is set to be shut down from throwing for up to potentially 4-6 weeks.

That could leave his status as a catching option in doubt for the stretch run of the year, and potentially the playoffs.

“Don’t know what that looks like for the rest of the season and throughout the postseason,” Roberts said. “Fortunately, it happened the day before the trade deadline. So… today we’re looking at two new catchers.”

An update from Wednesday morning:

Couple Rushing’s injury with Will Smith still needing at least three to four weeks at minimum before returning from a neck injury, the Dodgers’ catching is now in the hands of Ben Rortvedt and Dalton Rushing, both former Dodgers who were acquired on Mondaybefore the trade deadline. Both were activated on Tuesday, with Rortvedt starting behind the plate in Tarik Skubal’s debut and Feduccia catching Eric Lauer on Wednesday’s series finale in Chicago.

It’s similar to last September when Smith had a hand injury and Rushing injured his shin. Rortvedt went from relative obscurity to starting 19 out of 25 games, including four postseason games before Smith returned. Now, it’s Rortvedt and Feduccia for the foreseeable future behind the plate, perhaps until Smith might return in either late August or September.

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Nothing beats baseball from 2:20 p.m. ET, all the way to nearly midnight.

Let's dive into my three favorite MLBhome run props for Wednesday's slate, headlined by Astros superstar Yordan Alvarez.

Here are my favorite MLB picks for Aug. 5.

MLB home run props for today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	+262
Munetaka Murakami	+250

Home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+262)

I mean, how can I pass up Houston Astros superstar Yordan Alvarez against newly acquired Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon?

The former Cub has been tormented by left-handed hitters all season long. Over the last 30 lefties he's faced, they've produced a 23.8% barrel rate and 76.2% elevation rate while posting a .405 xBA, .735 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA.

Alvarez enters today with one of the highest matchup ratings of the day on Batters-Box while covering 100% of Taillon's pitch mix. Through 37 elite-rated games this season, the big fella has gone deep in 29.73% of them.

At home, that number jumps to nearly 40%, homering in seven of his 18 elite-rated games.

No matter how obvious this spot may seem, you can't overthink it. Alvarez has been on an absolute tear all season, and this is one of the best home run spots on the board.

Play this down to +225. 

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, Sportnet

Home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+250)

The most consistent and efficient bat in the Chicago White Sox lineup has easily been rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami.

Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Murakami has posted an .852 SLG, 1.252 OPS, .523 wOBA, and .519 ISO. He's also generated a 70.6% hard hit rate and nearly a 30% barrel rate during that span.

Murakami draws veteran Red Sox righty Sonny Gray, who has hit a few speed bumps over his last three starts. During that stretch, Gray owns a 5.00 ERA while allowing a 45% hard hit rate.

The last 30 left-handed hitters he's faced have produced a 43.5% hard-hit rate and 43.5% line-drive rate while posting a .605 xSLG and .361 xwOBA.

The White Sox star enters tonight with an elite Batters-Box rating, covering more than 84% of Gray's pitch mix. In his 22 elite-rated road games this season, Murakami has gone deep in nearly 32% of them.

I'd play this down to +225.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, NESN

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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The Milwaukee Brewers are listed as a -126 favorite against Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.

With Skenes reeling, my Pirates vs. Brewers predictions are eyeing Milwaukee to grab the win against their NL Central rivals. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5. 

Who will win Pirates vs Brewers tonight: Brewers (-126)

It’s never easy to fade Paul Skenes, but he is in poor form right now. The Pittsburgh Pirates ace owns a 5.24 xERA across his last two outings, having allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate.

The Milwaukee Brewers counter with Kyle Harrison, who makes his first appearance since early July after recovering from injury. Harrison may be on a short leash, but Pittsburgh has struggled against lefties, posting just a 90 wRC+ compared to a 112 mark vs right-handers.

The Brewers’ home offense gives them enough upside to get to Skenes, while Harrison can keep Pittsburgh contained.

Playable to -140.

COVERS INTEL: The Brewers own a 111 wRC+ at American Family Field this season, compared to a 98 wRC+ on the road. They should be able to cause trouble for Skenes. 

Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-131)

This total sits at 7.5, and the Under looks like the better angle. 

Harrison may not work deep in his return, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has been solid, posting a 3.03 xERA over its last 22 frames. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has also been reliable with a 2.97 FIP over the last week.

This profiles as a lower-scoring game, even if Skenes allows traffic.

I'll play this to -140.

Pirates vs Brewers weather

Conditions in Milwaukee look cool and damp tonight, with overcast skies early and temperatures falling from the low 70s into the upper 60s. 

There's a moderate chance of rain early, but conditions should improve later in the day with light winds throughout. 

Worst-case scenario, expect the retractable roof to be utilized at American Family Field.

Pirates vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Pirates +117 | Brewers -126
• Run line: Pirates +1.5 (-186) | Brewers -1.5 (+178)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+122) | Under 7.5 (-131)

Pirates vs Brewers trend

Milwaukee has hit the game total Under in 30 of its last 50 games (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers.

How to watch Pirates vs Brewers and game info

Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries

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