Category: Baseball

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The Chicago Cubs hope to end a three-game skid when they face the Atlanta Braves tonight.

The opening game of the series between the top two teams in the National League was dominated by the Braves, but my Cubs vs. Braves predictions back Chicago to even the series tonight.

Find out why in my MLB picks for May 13.

Who will win Cubs vs Braves today: Cubs (-127)

JR Ritchie has had a solid start to his MLB career with the Atlanta Braves, but his metrics suggest some serious issues ahead. 

His FIP is three runs higher than his ERA, largely due to a BB/9 rate of 6.23 that is among the worst of any starter.

That sets him up for failure against the Chicago Cubs, whose 13.2% walk rate over the last two weeks is the best in baseball. They’re also third in xwOBA in that timeframe, thanks to the third-lowest strikeout rate.

Chicago's offense will provide run support to Shota Imanaga as he claims another victory. 

COVERS INTEL:Ritchie has a 21.1% HR/FB rate this season, which could be problematic given the weather in Atlanta tonight is the second-most favorable for hitters of any game on today’s schedule.

Cubs vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-108)

The Cubs have only two runs in the last three games, and those both came last night despite having just one hit.

They’ll get back on track against Ritchie, who ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in chase rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, and xERA.

Imanaga will limit Atlanta’s offense, but that will change once he exits. Chicago’s bullpen ranks second-worst in HR/FB rate, third-worst in HR rate, and dead last in xERA over the past week. 

That will allow the Braves, whose .336 BABIP over the past week leads the majors, to get some late runs.  

Cubs vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -127 | Braves +122
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+127) | Braves +1.5 (-133)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)

Cubs vs Braves trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.

How to watch Cubs vs Braves and game info

Cubs vs Braves latest injuries

Cubs vs Braves weather

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The glass of baseball is always half full and half empty at the same time and the 2026 A’s are no exception. Half full: the A’s still own sole possession of 1st place at the 1/4 mark. Half empty: their 21-20 record puts them currently on pace for only 84 wins.

The Good

Let’s start today with a big positive from the ‘half full department’. I think we should take a moment to realize just how good Shea Langeliers has been in 2026. He hasn’t just been the A’s best hitter nor is he simply the best catcher in the AL 1/4 of the way through the season. Langeliers can legitimately lay claim to being one of the best 2 or 3 hitters in the American League so far in 2026.

Sound like hyperbole? Langeliers has played in all but 4 games, missing most of those due to paternity leave, and he is batting, for the season, .340/.396/.641 with 12 HR. That’s a 48 HR pace and the league lead in batting (.020 points ahead of Josh Jung).

Shea’s 183 wRC+ is rivaled by few AL hitters. Even the legendary Aaron Judge is barely ahead of him at 185 wRC+. The only clearly superior hitter, by wRC+, would be Ben Rice (198). And once you factor in position and defensive value, Shea rises in overall WAR: Rice currently sits at 1.9 fWAR, Langeliers at 2.4 fWAR.

That’s right, Langeliers is on pace for a 9.6 fWAR season. Who knows how the voting will go, but he really should be a no-brainer to start the All-Star game as the American League’s catcher.

The Fugly

One wants to avoid the temptation to panic over small samples, but with Lawrence Butler the sample is growing ever larger: since the 2025 All-Star break Butler has just been bad. Last July-September you can wonder how much his knee might have been a factor, but that’s not really an excuse for how 2026 has begun.

The sample is now 96 games and here is how the numbers shake down:

2nd half of 2025, 58 games: .203/.268/.351, 70 wRC+
1st half of 2026, 38 games: .175/.277/.275, 56 wRC+

In aggregate you have a sub .200 hitter with an OBP in the low .270s and slugging in the low-mid .300s with a wRC+ in the mid-60s.

Against LHPs in his career now, Butler is batting just .221/.262/.378, 77 wRC+, which is why he is already becoming a platoon player in year 2 of his contract extension.

Defensively, Butler is fine in RF, even a tick above average, but he is terrible in CF despite the A’s insistence on pulling a Bleday and trotting him out there anyway. He’s already at -3 OAA in just 121.2 innings so he’s not providing valuable versatility to offset his hitting woes.

The A’s should now be legitimately concerned. There’s room for hope in that Butler has had his share of bad batted ball luck with hard hit outs. His expected BA stands at .232, which is a lot better than his actual .175 — but it’s not good and would only raise his OBP to a respectable .325.

Yes it would be nice if Butler were actually batting .232/.325/.400 but you don’t always exactly match your “expected” metrics and can’t just lean on that to excuse performance. Butler has struggled mightily at the plate for nearly 2/3 of a season now and is only really playable in RF — where Carlos Cortes can also play.

More Fugly: Pitching Splits

Meanwhile, on the mound….the A’s flat out need to figure out how to pitch in Sacramento. The team now has a 6.02 ERA at home for the season in 17 games in contrast to its 3.28 ERA in 24 away games. That’s absurd and it’s the same mound, same field, same conditions for the A’s and their opponents.

Sure the A’s could reasonably have a team ERA even a full point higher at home than on the road and chalk it up to “park effects”. But an ERA 2.74 runs/game higher at home than on the road? Serving up 2 runs every 3 innings? Come on, folks, you need to get a handle on this if the team is to contend for anything.

Trying to reverse the trend tonight will be one of the A’s biggest “split offenders,” JT Ginn. In a small sample so far in 2026, Ginn has a 7.62 ERA at home, 1.48 on the road. Last year, though, was similar: 6.85 at home, 3.14 on the road. It means Ginn will take a career ERA in Sacramento of 7.01 into tonight’s start.

Presumably, tonight we will see the debut of Henry Bolte, likely in CF and batting 9th. Here’s hoping The Bolte Era coincides with the team pitching better at home, Lawrence Butler hitting better everywhere, and Shea Langeliers not changing a thing.

The Nationals have been a surprisingly fun team to watch so far in 2026. As we have documented, the offense has been absolutely electric and the pitching staff has stabilized after a rough start to the season. However, the defense has been very rough, and it is showing no signs of improvement.

Even in last night’s comprehensive win, the Nats had two errors and a passed ball. This team just does not play error free baseball very often. In fact, the Nats are averaging nearly an error per game, with 41 errors in 42 games. Right now, they are on pace to have the most errors by any team since the beginning of the 21st century.

We knew heading into the season that this team was not going to be great defensively. They were not great last year, and have a number of players in the lineup not known for their defense. The Nats two best players, James Wood and CJ Abrams, are not great defensively, and that sets the tone in a way.

That is not necessarily the worst thing in the world. Defense is not like hitting and pitching. You do not need to be an elite defensive team to win a World Series. The Dodgers have been middle of the pack defensively the past two seasons, and so were the Nats in 2019. Going all in on defense is not the solution, but the Nats need to get to an acceptable level.

Averaging nearly an error a game is not an acceptable level of defensive play. Blake Butera knows this very well. He has spoken multiple times about the need to clean up the defense. At one point a week or two ago, he mentioned that he was going to change up the routine. It does not seem like that worked. Before yesterday’s game, he talked about how the Nats were not utilizing their athleticism in the field. I think there has been some pressing going on lately.

As Butera mentioned, this is an athletic team. You can see that on the bases. While there have been some base running mistakes, they have been a much better team on the basepaths this season. The Nats are first in Baseball Savant’s baserunning metric and second in BsR. This team is getting much better in a lot of areas, but fielding is not one of them.

Some of this is pretty predictable. The new regime talked a big game about making CJ Abrams a better defensive shortstop, but that has not happened. Abrams has 7 errors on the season and has -7 outs above average, as well as -4 DRS. He is just not equipped to be a shortstop long term. In fact, I think some of these defensive issues would have been mitigated by moving Abrams to second base before the season and playing Nasim Nunez at shortstop. However, I understand the new regime’s desire to give Abrams another shot at short.

I do not want to single out Abrams though, because he has been far from the only problem. Outside of Nasim Nunez, the whole infield has been a mess. Luis Garcia Jr. and Curtis Mead have both been producing with the bat, but neither are natural first baseman and it shows. 

The most disappointing player defensively has been Brady House, and it has not been close. House is tied with Abrams for the team lead in errors, and has a much worse fielding percentage at .908 compared to .956 for Abrams. As you would expect from someone as mistake prone as that, the defensive metrics are not great. His OAA is only -2, but his DRS is the same as Abrams at -4. 

Coming into the season, House’s defense was seen as a big strength for him. The young third baseman posted 2 outs above average last year, and made some great plays. He showed off his rocket arm and good range from his background as a shortstop. The big question with House was the development of his bat.

To his credit, House clearly put in a lot of work to improve offensively. House’s OPS is up over 100 points. He is walking more and hitting for much more power. House has been close to a league average hitter this year, with a 95 wRC+. However, he has gone from an asset to a liability on defense. It has been a disappointing development, and hopefully he can bounce back.

A lot of the problems seem to come when House is coming in on balls. That was how he made his error last night, and it was not the first one like that. There are also times where House just seems to be caught in between and is indecisive. The natural talent is there for him to be a good defender, and he has shown he can play good defense. Unlike Abrams, House has the range and arm for his position, he just needs to clean up the miscues.

The Nats defense has been the most mistake prone in baseball, but it has not been the worst. That is a key distinction, and one that can be tough to realize if you watch them play every night. For the season, the Nats are 25th in fielding run value at -7. In Fangraphs defensive metric, they rank 25th and they are 27th in defensive runs saved. 

So yes, the defense is bad, but it is not as bad as the error numbers suggest. That comes down to a few factors. The Nats do have a couple real defensive wizards in the lineup. Nasim Nunez and Jacob Young are both very good defensive players, which helps them out. The Nats have gotten much better defense from their catchers. They have been a top 5 framing team this season. 

The defense absolutely is a real issue, and they need to cut down on the errors. Making nearly an error a game is simply unacceptable at the big league level. They have 12 more errors than the next closest team. However, the defense is not as bad as the errors make them look. On offense, the new staff has really gotten through to the players, but it has been tougher to make them click on the defensive side of the ball.

It’s hard to find too much to gripe about with the 2026 Atlanta Braves through 42 games.

At the plate, they lead the majors in batting average (.272), slugging percentage (.452), wOBA (.347), wRC+ (121), and have scored the most runs of any team (233).

On the mound and with the gloves, they’re tops in runs allowed (143) and defensive efficiency (.249 BABIP-against), fifth in defensive value, while also tied for second in quality starts (20). Though the pitching has had some ups and downs, the defense has buoyed it, and they’re in the top half of MLB in FIP and xFIP.

There’s only been one real glaring issue through the first quarter of the season. There’s been an undeniable spike in baserunners being picked off under new first base coach Antoan Richardson.

With two more pickoffs in Tuesday night’s 5-2 win over the Chicago Cubs, the Braves have been picked off 10 times this season. That’s two more than any other major league team.

It’s also already as many pickoffs as the Braves had on the bases in all 162 games last season and more than they had in three of their four entire seasons between 2021-24.

It would seem that Braves manager Walt Weiss has seen enough of the new way the Braves are trying to be aggressive on the basepaths.

“To be honest, it’s gotten to a point where we’re going to have to make an adjustment there. I don’t think it’s costing us games, but it just shouldn’t happen at this rate,” Weiss said postgame Tuesday. “I know we’re trying to do some things different, and the guys are working their butts off trying to be really good at it. Antoan has been awesome. He’s got passion, he’s accountable. That’s just something we’ve got to clean up.”

While Weiss can say none of the pickoffs have cost them games — and it’s clearly not stopping the Braves’ winning ways — these issues have come up in some critical spots.

Most notably, pinch-runner Jorge Mateo was picked off when he represented the tying run in the eighth inning of the rubber match at Seattle, which remains the only series the Braves have lost this season.

The new baserunning belief has paid dividends in some ways. The Braves are tied for fourth in the majors in bases taken (46) and have only run into six outs on the bases (fourth fewest), a stat that doesn’t count pickoffs. They’re 11th in Statcast’s baserunning measure (which does not include steals, steal attempts, or pickoffs), after finishing handily in the bottom ten each of the last two seasons (and sixth in 2023).

But it’s not even like the team is stealing bases at a crazy rate. Atlanta’s 21 stolen bases rank 21st in the majors and the Braves’ 67.74% stolen-base percentage is the worst in the majors. In pure stolen base value, the Braves are also dead last; when you add stolen base and baserunning value together, they’re 22nd.

So if the upside of stolen bases isn’t going to be there with this team — which it likely doesn’t need to be given its slugging — the risk of getting picked off shouldn’t be nearly that serious… or common.

Alternatively, if they’re going to have this aggressive approach, they need to at least be a bit more selective about who uses it. Look at Tuesday’s two pickoffs as proof. Michael Harris II, given his speed, may be justified in risking an aggressive baserunning approach, even if it sometimes ends up with him picked off. Matt Olson — he of the ten career stolen bases in 11 seasons — simply shouldn’t be risking outs by doing whatever he was doing on Tuesday night.

On the one hand, it’s a good sign that pickoffs are one of the few things Braves fans have to lament this season. On the other hand, there’s just no reason for it to be this bad, this often. Hopefully they follow their skipper’s direction and clean it up soon.

The attrition within the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation has, apparently, finally become too much to bear.

Hunter Greene is out until the All Star break, while Brandon Williamson only recently got sent to the 60-day IL for his shoulder ailment. Rhett Lowder, meanwhile, heard ‘clicking’ in his shoulder during his last start, and while an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, he’s being sent to the 15-day IL to let that simmer down. Meanwhile, Chase Petty is dealing with blister issues for the second time already this season, joining the blistered duo of Brady Singer and Nick Lodolo as that has plagued the rotation all spring.

With that much inside drama, it became pretty clear the Reds would need to look outside their own ranks. According to Charlie Goldsmith on Wednesday afternoon, that will happen in the form of veteran righty Chris Paddack, who the Reds will reportedly sign.

Paddack was recently released by the Miami Marlins just 7 appearances into the $4 million contract he signed with them this offseason. That was largely due to him yielding 26 ER in just 30.2 IP, I’d wager, though at least his 4.98 FIP is better than the 7.63 ERA he sported in that time.

For his career, he’s a 4.79 ERA guy across 612.1 IP, and a fastball that once averaged right at 95 mph at its peak now sits at just 93 mph at age 30.

It remains to be seen exactly what kind of deal this will be, though with the current rotation opening rolling around in just days it’s hard to see this being anything other than a big league deal. That will require some 40-man roster shuffling, if so, and it also remains to be seen just exactly how much the Reds will truly expect from a guy who has only managed to complete 5 IP once so far this season.

If anything, I wonder if this is an indication that one of the current pitcher issues may well be more dire than we initially feared.

There is a major change in out TV broadcasts. For the first time in many many years, Buck Martinez isn’t sitting in one of the chairs in the booth.

Dan Shulman is still there. As is Hazel Mae and Arden Zwelling are still the sideline reporters. And Jamie Campbell and a rotating cast do the Jays Central studio stuff.

The big change is that Joe Siddall and Caleb Joseph have moved up from fill in game analysts to being the man. Or men, I guess.

So I thought I’d ask what you think of the TV broadcasts.

I will admit, I have developed the ability to tune out the talk, most of the time. But they seem to have given up on telling us how bad the one knee thing is for catchers (just wait until there is a passed ball at the wrong time.

I think Dan is as good as they come for play-by-play. I don’t think he and Joe or Caleb have developed the rapport that he and Buck had, but I’d imagine that will just take time.

Give us your opinion.

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After a perfect 3-for-3 on my MLB player props on Tuesday, I have found more value in today's packed 15-game slate.

I'll include Max Fried, Randy Arozarena, and Jacob Misiorowski. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Max Fried	Over 5.5 strikeouts	-145
Randy Arozarena	Over 1.5 total bases	+150
Jacob Misiorowski	Under 1.5 earned runs	-133

Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (-145)

Max Fried is having a nice campaign for the New York Yankees, compiling a 4-2 record and 2.91 ERA while striking out 48 hitters in 58.2 innings of work. While his K rate isn't as high as usual, the lefty is still getting his fair share of swings and misses.

Fried will face the Baltimore Orioles tonight, and he also struck out six O's hitters earlier this month in 5.1 innings. 

Fried has cashed the Over in punchouts in two of his last four appearances, and he finished with five Ks in the other two starts -- just below tonight's total.

The Orioles struggle at times to put the baseball in play, ranking 26th in the big leagues in strikeouts. Fried also has 35 Ks in 41.1 road innings as the Bronx Bombers visit Baltimore here. 

• Time: 6: p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Amazon Prime

Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases (+150)

Randy Arozarena is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. The Seattle Mariners outfielder is hitting .522 over the last seven days, and he's already notched six hits in this series against the Houston Astros ahead of the series finale tonight.

Arozarena has cashed the Over in total bases in three of his last five contests, and the Cuban was a perfect 4-for-4 on Tuesday.

Tonight's matchup plays in his favor, too. Arozarena will face Lance McCullers Jr, and he's 7-for-17 lifetime against him with a home run. McCullers Jr owns a horrible 7.41 ERA, and he's given up nine earned runs across his last two starts.

Arozarena is hitting everything, and McCullers Jr has had no luck against the slugger. He'll have another banner performance. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, Mariners.TV

Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 earned runs (-133)

The Milwaukee Brewers' rotation has been led by youngster Jacob Misiorowski, who sports a 2.45 ERA through eight starts, holding opponents to a .162 average.

The right-hander is coming off a dominant outing against the New York Yankees, tossing six scoreless frames last Friday while allowing just two hits to a solid lineup. 

In fact, he's put together back-to-back scoreless appearances, and Misiorowski has cashed the Under in three of his previous four starts. The Brew Crew face the San Diego Padres at home tonight, where the hard-throwing right-hander owns a 2.54 ERA.

The Padres have been very underwhelming offensively, ranking 15th in runs and towards the bottom of the Majors in numerous other offensive categories. Misiorowski will deal. 

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV

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The New York Mets will look to make it two in a row at home as they host the Detroit Tigers at Citi Field on Wednesday night.

New York broke out offensively on Tuesday, and I’m picking it to win again in my Tigers vs. Mets predictions below.

Read on for my free MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13.

Who will win Tigers vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (-110)

Framber Valdez exits a disastrous start that saw him allow 10 runs in three innings. He’s running into a New York Mets team that broke out offensively with the help of prospect A.J. Ewing, who had a triple and three walks in his MLB debut last night.

Mets SP Christian Scott has allowed just three earned runs on six hits over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts. He’s struck out 14 batters in that span, which should cause fits for a Detroit Tigers lineup averaging 2.71 runs over its last seven games.

COVERS INTEL: Christian Scott is holding opponents to a .172 expected batting average and a 4.2% barrel rate so far this season.

Tigers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)

New York showed energy and life that was desperately missing from its offense last night, whether that was from Ewing’s debut or not. The Mets singlehandedly carried the Over, and I think this lineup can generate offense off Valdez as well given his recent struggles. 

The Tigers will have their chances to score, too. Scott has yet to go more than five innings in a game this year, and the Mets bullpen is thin, with long relief options like Sean Manaea (6.56 ERA) and closer Devin Williams (5.68 ERA) struggling. 

Tigers vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Tigers -110 | Mets -110
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 | Mets -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Tigers vs Mets trend

Detroit is 1-6 straight up in its last seven games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mets.

How to watch Tigers vs Mets and game info

Tigers vs Mets latest injuries

Tigers vs Mets weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Were you excited about the ABS challenge system at the start of the season? Did you think Craig Breslow’s “pitching and defense team” would be taking advantage of a new tool to help them reach the playoffs again? Well, so far challenges aren’t really a Red Sox thing. Whether this was an Alex Cora decision to more or less ignore the new powers of gamesmanship, or whether the Sox simply don’t have a collection of players who are comfortable tapping their helmets is unknown, but the results speak for themselves.

Boston has called for just 28 batter challenges through May 12th, the second lowers total in baseball. The Miami Marlins are at 28 and the San Diego Padres sit at just 26. Meanwhile the Minnesota Twins (56), Los Angeles Angels (49), Baltimore Orioles (48), and Cleveland Guardians (48) lead the pack with the most challenges by their hitters. Granted, these are not the most successful teams at challenges. That would be the Athletics, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, and Houston Astros. Each has won between 56% and 60% of their hitter challenges. And of the high-challenge teams, only the Guardians are above .500 on the year. Boston hitters have won 46% of their challenges, same as the Yankees who have challenged 46 times. The two teams are tied for the 14th highest winning rate by their hitters. Although 19 teams have won at least 45% of their challenges. And 21 teams have won 44%.

The disparity begins to show when you look at the individual hitters.

Ceddanne Rafaela is the leader of the Boston offense in helmet tapping. For better or worse he’s been one of the bright spots in the offense. And he’s challenged 7 times. Winning just 2. He shares that rate of success with Steven Kwan, Willy Adames, and Jonathan Aranda. Only Gunnar Henderson, with just 1 win, is worse among those with at least 7 challenge attempts.

If you look at Rafaela’s feel of the strike zone, it’s all over the map. The two blue circles were overturned. The 5 black circles were confirmed. Even here there’s some tough luck on the two in the corner on the lower left and the biter on the right that is essentially on the line of the strike zone. But that circle well inside the box? You might remember it from Sunday. It was called and obviously confirmed as a strike. It probably looked low.

It’s tough. The catcher lifts the ball really quick and it looks like his glove moved a long way as he does it.

Masataka Yoshida (1) and Trevor Story (2) have won all their challenges.

Roman Anthony is 2-for-3.

Willson Contreras (6) and Caleb Durbin (4) have won 50% of theirs.

Wilyer Abreu in the opposite of Roman at 1-for-3.

Let’s look at Masa’s win for comparison. He’s seen a lot of pitches this year and only one made him tap the helmet.

What’s the saying, juuuuust a bit outside?

Obviously some of this is going to be ingrained in a player. Some is going to be teachable. For the Red Sox, a team needing an offensive boost, maybe it’s time to figure out a more unified strategy. We know Roman and Masa know the zone. We know Willson is a veteran and a former catcher. He may know some tricks to gain a tiny edge here and there. But if the Sox could get back another pitch or two per week, it might be nice. I’m not advocating wasting challenges but if the game is ending and you have both remaining in the 9th inning maybe a little live practice…

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The reeling Los Angeles Dodgers take a four-game losing streak into Wednesday night’s home game against the San Francisco Giants.

Superstar Shohei Ohtani takes the mound, and there’s no better pitcher to turn the tide.

My Giants vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13, see Shohei leading his team back in the win column with a low-scoring victory.

Who will win Giants vs Dodgers tonight: Dodgers moneyline (-238)

Losing streak or not, the Los Angeles Dodgers are still the superior team and will have a starting pitching advantage with Shohei Ohtani (0.97 ERA) on the bump.

He’s on a shortlist for the NL Cy Young, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, and barrel rate.

While Robbie Ray’s 2.76 ERA looks nice, it’s undercut by his predictive metrics (4.15 xERA, 4.52 FIP).

His mortality shows on the road (4.15 ERA), and the bullpen behind him has a league-worst 5.63 SIERA over the last 15 days.

COVERS INTEL:Shohei Ohtani’s 114 Stuff+ ranks seventh among starting pitchers. He uses these lethal offerings to generate strikeouts (29%) and groundballs (53.8%) — the two most favorable outcomes for a pitcher.

Giants vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-110)

Low-scoring games tend to follow when these two hurlers take the mound. San Francisco is 2-6 O/U in Ray’s eight starts, while L.A. is 1-5 O/U in Ohtani’s last six.

The Boys in Blue have been slumping at the dish, plating three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games. With Ohtani out of the lineup, they’re missing their best hitter.

The San Francisco Giants have bad numbers against right-handed pitchers (89 wRC+ and .296 wOBA) and will face the most effective one to date in 2026.

Giants vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: San Francisco +206 | Los Angeles -229
• Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-103) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-107)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+124) | Under 8.5 (-137)

Giants vs Dodgers trend

The Giants have hit the Under in four of their last five road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Giants vs Dodgers and game info

Giants vs Dodgers latest injuries

Giants vs Dodgers weather

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When the Jays are playing the way they are, I find it hard to come up with things to write about. Or perhaps I’m just depressed about the state of the team.

At the quarter mark of the season, the surprise player (well, surprise in a good way) has to be Brandon Valenzuela. He’s only played in 24 games (and five of those he didn’t start). He’s had 69 plate appearances, and a batting average of .226, 4 home runs and an OPS +103.

Defensively, he’s thrown out 35.0% of the guys who have tried to steal off him. There are 3 errors, but no one is perfect.

Jays pitchers have a 3.77 ERA against him and a 4.52 ERA against Tyler Heineman. It is a small sample size, so there is likely some noise, but it appears the pitchers like throwing to him.

By bWAR, he’s tied for the best among Jays batters. Obviously, this is all a very small sample, and there is little in his history that suggests he’d be more than a glove-first backup catcher.

If he continues like this, the Jays will have to keep him as the backup to Alejandro Kirk when the time comes.

At the opposite end of the bWAR scale (and surprise scale), we have Tyler Heineman, at -0.9. Tyler was terrific last year, 1.9 bWAR in 61 games. But that was very much an outlier in his career. Other than 2025, his bWAR ranged from +0.3 to -0.1 (pretty normal for a backup catcher).

What’s going on this year?

He’s hitting .158/.200/.158 in 63 PA (again, a very small sample size). And it does seem like he’s lost confidence at the plate.

Defensively, he’s thrown out 20% of base stealers (league average 23.5 %), so considering the sample size, right around average (last year he threw out 30.2% of base stealers). And, as noted above, our pitchers haven’t fared as well throwing to him.

Tyler is out of options, though I don’t know if anybody would pick him up off waivers. Valenzuela has 3 option years left.

Alejandro Kirk is still weeks away from rejoining the Jays, so lots can happen between now and then, but Valenzuela is looking a lot like the backup catcher Heineman was last year.

After that skid in Milwaukee, the Yankees have the chance to get right back on the horse today with a series win over Baltimore. First pitch time has been moved up from 6:35pm to 1:05pm this afternoon with fears of some nasty weather tonight, but we’re all hoping for some nasty pitching from Max Fried in the meantime.

Just like last season, Fried is putting together an excellent campaign without a whole lot of fanfare — in 2026’s case at least partially because of how damn good Cam Schlittler has been. Still, Fried comfortably sits top 10 in baseball in multiple stats including xERA and home run rate, and if it weren’t for some standout performances last night would be top ten in FIP as well, with him currently ranked 11th in the stat. He did get touched up over the weekend against the Brewers for five earned runs across six innings, so a bounceback start would be welcome.

Kyle Bradish goes for the O’s, and while he’s struggled to get much going this year, he’s handled the Yankees well in his career. This will be his ninth start against the Bombers, managing a 3.92 ERA against them in his previous eight. That said, a ghastly 12-percent walk rate should have the Yankees focusing on one part of the zone, and willing to take until Bradish goes there.

Spencer Jones finds himself back in the lineup today, in right field while Aaron Judge DHs. J.C. Escarra catches on the day game after the night game, but the biggest change is perhaps Anthony Volpe getting his first start since being recalled from Triple-A. The former top prospect sat out last night’s win but will bat eighth and man shortstop at Camden Yards today.

How to watch

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Baltimore, MD

First pitch: 1:05 pm ET

TV broadcast: Amazon Prime Video, MASN

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY), 98 Rock 97.9 FM, WBAL 1090 AM (BA. L) n

Online stream: MLB.tv (out-of-market only)

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It’s rebound day after a couple of donuts last night, and Aaron Judge drawing walks instead of swinging for the fences is a tough way to lose a home run ticket. Having several fly-ball pitchers working in windy conditions today creates plenty to like across the MLB player prop market.

Lefty vs. lefty isn't always a good place to look for a dinger, but it is today with Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz stepping in against Jose Quintana.

Add him to the card featuring Hunter Goodman and Brady House, and we've got a home run stew going.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 13.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Hunter Goodman	+405
Brady House	+620
Oneil Cruz	+425
💲Today's HR parlay	+15650

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+405)

I love this game for runs. We’ve got double-digit winds blowing out, two fly-ball starters, and a pair of beat-up bullpens. Hunter Goodman has the best home run upside in this matchup and has already taken Mitch Keller deep in a small three-at-bat sample.

Goodman leads the Colorado Rockies in swing speed and BlastContact% over the last two weeks while also posting the second-best IdealAttackAngle%. I like him in this spot more than Mickey Moniak at the shorter price.

Keller hasn’t allowed many home runs, but he’s been a bit fortunate and isn’t a true ground-ball pitcher. He’ll also eventually hand things off to a bullpen carrying a 6.82 ERA over the last two weeks. Goodman, a lucky pitcher, a bad bullpen, and strong winds are all checking boxes for our MLB picks today.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: Brady House (+620)

Brady House might not be a household name yet, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Washington Nationals lineup from the right side and gets a strong matchup today against lefty Nick Lodolo, who was roughed up in his first start back last week while continuing to see his fly-ball rate climb.

If Lodolo can’t keep the ball on the ground, it could be a short outing with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs last week and threw only 78 pitches.

That could mean plenty of innings for a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks at 8.77, along with a league-worst 2.10 HR/9.

House went yard yesterday and has four extra-base hits over his last six games with great BlastCon% numbers. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Reds.TV

Home run pick: Oneil Cruz (+425)

I’m getting a great price on one of the best home run hitters in the game with Oneil Cruz facing fellow lefty Jose Quintana, which is likely why this number is sitting north of +400. Cruz has crushed left-handed pitching this season with a .985 OPS and four home runs.

Quintana has actually allowed more damage to left-handed hitters this year, and with his short leash at roughly 81 pitches per start, a weak Rockies bullpen is likely going to be asked to keep the ball in the park with 13-mph winds blowing out to center field. I’ll take the lefty-on-lefty discount.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Hunter Goodman	Bet Now +15650
Brady House
Oneil Cruz

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After a four-game sweep in the Bronx last week, I was in no hurry to see the Orioles face the Yankees again. This time it’s gone better, although far from great. In Game 1, the O’s snatched a late win, with Coby Mayo going yard after his team had been no-hit for six innings. But in Game 2, Trevor Rogers looked homer-prone, and the team fell, 6-2.

The Orioles rotation is certainly struggling of late. Their 5.19 ERA is third-worst in the game. Now it’s Max Fried and Kyle Bradish in the rubber match, two pitchers whom you’d once squint and call aces. Bradish, because he had an out-of-nowhere 2023 campaign, finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. Fried, because he’s often treated as just ace-adjacent—on the other hand, he’s certainly got ace-type numbers today.

Bradish (1-5, 4.83 ERA) could use a bounceback. He hasn’t given up fewer than three runs in any of his last three starts. Overall, this season has shown Bradish trying to shake off some post-Tommy John rust. At the time same time, he’s showing some signs of being back to normal. His last time out, against the Athletics, he gave up three runs but did go long, however.

Whether Max Fried (4-2, 2.91 ERA) is an ace or not, he’s certainly pitching like one right now. His BaseballSavant page is a sea of red (that’s good): pitching run value, expected ERA, fastball run value, offspeed run value. His curveball has been his greatest weapon this year, but he leans on his cutter more. Last week, Baltimore got their runners aboard (six hits, three walks), but only pushed across three earned runs over 5.1 innings. On May 8, he allowed five runs to the Brewers. So maybe the “ace” is going through a rough patch. And maybe the O’s can take advantage.

Orioles lineup

1. Taylor Ward LF
2. Gunnar Henderson SS
3. Adley Rutschman C
4. Pete Alonso 1B
5. Tyler O’Neill RF
6. Leody Taveras CF
7. Coby Mayo DH
8. Weston Wilson 3B
9. Blaze Alexander 2B

Yankees lineup

1. Trent Grisham CF
2. Ben Rice 1B
3. Aaron Judge DH
4. Cody Bellinger LF
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
6. Ryan McMahon 3B
7. Spencer Jones RF
8. Anthony Volpe SS
9. J.C. Escarra C

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Toronto Blue Jays slugger George Springer is heating up at the plate, and a matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax has me believing that his hot play continues tonight. 

Read on to see why with my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB Picks on Wednesday, May 13.

Rays vs Blue Jays predictions

Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: George Springer Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

We’re starting to see signs of last year’s George Springer coming to life in 2026.

The Toronto Blue Jays DH has five hits in his last four games, averaging 1.5 bases per game in that stretch, going Over the number in two of his last three outings. 

If he’s getting back to his 2025 self, that would make today a plus-pitching matchup with Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Griffin Jax on the mound.

Jax throws the sweeper to righties more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Last season, Springer had a .343 average against the sweeper.

Additionally, Springer is 3-for-5 against Jax in his career with a pair of home runs.

COVERS INTEL: Jax ranks in the 26th percentile with a 4.87 xERA this season.

Rays vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Ernie Clement seems to be heating up again with eight hits in his last four games. It’s also a good matchup with a sweeper-tosser on the mound, as Clement owns a .385 against the pitch. He’s also 1-for-4 against Jax lifetime. 

For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll add Jax to go Under 3.5 strikeouts. 

Firstly, the Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Additionally, Jax isn’t stretched out enough to go deep, topping out at 59 pitches this season. Fewer batters means less opportunity for Ks.

Rays vs Blue Jays SGP

• George Springer Over 1.5 total bases
• Ernie Clement Over 0.5 hits
• Griffin Jax Under 3.5 strikeouts

Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: George Springer (+425)

I’m making this a half-unit wager

Jax owns a 57.7% ground-ball rate, ranking in the 95th percentile. This has led to just two homers against him this season. 

However, Jax does give up hard contact, ranking in the 16th percentile in baseball. So if Someone gets lift on the ball, it could find the seats. 

The one player in the Jays lineup who has done this in the past is Springer. He has two home runs in just five career at-bats against Jax.

Additionally, the Rays bullpen boasts the eighth-highest HR/9 in MLB.

Rays vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Rays +110 | Blue Jays -130
• Run line: Rays +1.5 (-160) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Rays vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Rays vs Blue Jays and game info

Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Rays vs Blue Jays weather

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