"I've been here for almost a decade, and just how this team just rallies around adversity – they don't run from it. They actually run to it," Houston manager Joe Espada told reporters.
The White Sox are making their first playoff appearance since 2021 and are just two years removed from a 121-loss 2024 season, the worst record in baseball history.
Houston's Jose Altuve enters the series with 27 career postseason home runs, second only to Manny Ramirez's 29 in MLB history. The Astros have made the playoffs 10 times in 12 years and won World Series titles in 2017 and 2022. The White Sox's last World Series title came in 2005.
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The pitch clock rules introduced in 2023 to speed up Major League Baseball games have dramatically improved the pace of most nine-inning games.
The year before the rule was implemented, there were 232 nine-inning games that lasted more than three hours and 30 minutes, and it was also the last season that the average game lasted that long. In 2023, there were only nine such games.
The time spent on the field also dropped, with the 2025 season averaging two hours and 38 minutes per game. Figures for 2026 have not been released yet, but expect an uptick in time as a result of the first season under the ABS challenge system.
The pitch clock rules that applied to the regular season will remain in effect for the Major League Baseball postseason, which begins on Tuesday, Sept. 29.
MLB pitch clock rules
Bases empty: Pitchers have 15 seconds to start their delivery
Runners on base: Pitchers have 18 seconds to start their delivery; With runners on base, the timer resets if the pitcher attempts a pickoff or steps off the rubber
Batters: Hitters must be in the box, alert to the pitcher, and ready by the 8-second mark on the pitch clock
Penalties: A violation by the pitcher results in an automatic ball; a violation by the batter results in an automatic strike
Pitchers are limited to two disengagements (pickoff attempts or step-offs) per plate appearance and resets if runners advance during a plate appearance
Umpires may provide extra time if warranted by special circumstances
This might be hyperbole, but we feel safe to say that the potential World Series matchups have never been so politically loaded.
With an industry-shuttering lockout just 62 days away and a nuclear winter to follow – with only the degree of radiation in question – the lasting image of Major League Baseball will be provided by the two World Series participants and how they got there.
Narratives both valid and tired will dominate the run-up and linger for so long as baseball goes dark. No pressure, eh?
With that, let’s break down the nine most delicious World Series matchups based on narrative, geography and, dare we say, ball itself:
It’d be easy enough to dub this the I-94 Series, what with online maps’ highly complicated directions between ballparks:
Get on I-90 W/I-94 W. Follow I-94 W to your destination in Milwaukee.
Ninety minutes on I-94. It's that easy. But we could also call this the To Hell With The Cubs Series, pitting two franchises eternally playing second fiddle to the Bleacher Bummin’ behemoth lodged in between them.
Brewers and White Sox fans alike have had to endure invasive Cub fans for three decades now, a twice- or thrice-yearly phenomenon for Milwaukee since its move to the National League. Sure, both teams would be starved to win the World Series, especially Brewer fans seeking their very first.
Yet it would be kind of cool to see two fan bases close in proximity yet fused by something far stronger: Solidarity.
8. Guardians-Braves
If only to make fans and viewers squirm as they acknowledge the lingering question: Why is it that the Guardians changed their name with such ease, yet Atlanta clings to its decidedly insensitive nickname and downright offensive chant?
Cleveland shifted from its Native American name and imagery after the 2021 season and contrary to some sentiment, the sky did not fall nor the river ignite in Cuyahoga County. The Guardians won the AL Central in 2022, swept the Rays in the wild-card series and won the division in four of their first five seasons.
Nor did ditching Chief Wahoo for good harm the #brand in any fashion: In 2024, the Guardians drew 2.06 million, 1 million more than their 2016 World Series season and about 10,000 more than their 2017 season, when gains from pennant-winning years are truly felt.
This year, they cracked the 2 million mark for the third consecutive year, which they hadn’t done since the glory days of Jacobs Field produced eight straight seasons of 2 to 3 million fans from 1995-2002.
The Braves? They ignored the opportunity for a fresh start that a move to the suburbs and SunTrust/Truist Park offered. Instead, they more or less doubled down on their outdated motif, dubbing a restaurant in right field the “Chop House,” in case anyone forgot.
7. Yankees-Phillies
A rematch of a pretty great 2009 World Series that saw A-Rod win his only championship, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera their last and the Phillies mini-dynasty fall just short of a repeat.
Best part about it, though? Amtrak.
It’s just a hop and a jump from Manhattan’s Penn Station to 30th Street in Philly, an 88-minute jaunt – quicker if you take the Acela. Lock your price in now: The cheapest round-trip fares are $40. Forty bucks! With fuel prices these days, you probably couldn’t get from Paramus to Drexel Hill, say, so cheaply.
No tolls, no traffic and a fresh new fan base for Cam Schlittler to incite. Wins all around.
6. Padres-Rays
Shirtsleeves and Cuban sandwiches. Shorts and fish tacos. A team hellbent on spending enough money to win vs. a team smart enough to do so, year after year.
No, the aesthetics of this series would be off the charts - can't wait for the drone shots over St. Pete and Coronado - and there’s zero chance of a rain delay. Not at practically peerless Petco Park and charmingly underrated Tropicana Field.
And this series would be a bold statement debunking so many modern industry tropes.
Need a new stadium to win a World Series?
Well, this would be the third Fall Classic the Rays participated in in the past 18 years (two at Tropicana Field, one in the pandemic bubble in Texas). That’s three more World Series than Target Field, Marlins Park, PNC Park, Great American Ballpark and T-Mobile Park – all constructed in the early 2000s ballpark boom - have ever seen.
Smaller-market clubs can’t spend money and win like the big boys?
The Padres have six players toting nine-figure contracts, and while they may regret the back end of some of those deals, the departing Seidler family surely didn’t: They just sold the club for $3.9 billion. Not bad for a city that ranks 30th, wedged between Baltimore and San Antonio, in Nielsen’s designated market areas.
5. Cubs-White Sox
Pity the Catholic Cubs fan.
Chicago would be an absolute party for 10 days – hopefully not too violent in the Rate and Wrigley field bleachers – while the globe got behind the White Sox and their No. 1 fan, the damn pope. What’s a devout Cubbie to do against that kind of tide?
On the real, though, this would be a fantastic baseball showcase – PCA on this stage would be appointment viewing – as well as a wonderful celebration of arguably the USA’s greatest city. With the White Sox the greenest team in the field and the Cubs’ iffy starting pitching, is there a chance such a matchup could occur?
Let us pray.
4. Astros-Dodgers
Simply to see Dodgers fans get mad at the Astros for….something?
Sure, maybe supporters of the back-to-back champions have adopted a never forget mantra when it comes to 2017, but there’s now officially just one man remaining from the sign-stealing crew – future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve.
The Astros are on their fourth general manager (counting interim situations) and second manager since their shameful racket was exposed. They’ve won another World Series since, ostensibly in a classy fashion. Booing Cam Smith won’t make any of those rockets off Clayton Kershaw in 2017 Game 5 find gloves.
And for fans without a dog in the fight, it’d be funny to see them wrestle with swallowing a Dodgers threepeat or supporting a franchise they’ve considered something of a pariah for the past decade.
If nothing else, it’d be an interesting psychological evaluation to probe how fans of these once-tortured franchises feel now that being “cursed” or “lovable losers” is no longer their whole thing. Red Sox fans have been particularly spoiled, with their four championships this century, still more than any franchise.
And Cubs fans can’t be blamed if they’ve felt a bit disillusioned since their 2016 crown, what with owner Tom Ricketts seemingly more concerned with corporatizing Wrigleyville than, say, retaining future Hall of Fame sluggers. Attendance dropped from 3.2 million in 2016 to 2.6 million by 2022.
Yet the Cubs are back in the winning business, for the most part, and Alex Bregman – who signed a $175 million deal in January - would be facing his teammates from just one year ago should this matchup coalesce.
2. Yankees-Dodgers
A matchup that could certainly bifurcate the owners’ interests as the lockout looms.
On one hand, they could sit back and smugly hold this World Series up as Exhibit A for all that’s wrong with baseball, what with this bicoastal battle occurring for the second time in three seasons.
On the other, they might look at the boffo ratings and wonder, why are we complaining about all this money we’re making while just two years away from taking our entire TV inventory to market again?
Naturally, a lot of that would hinge on the health of Aaron Judge, both to help the Yankees get this far and to provide the skyscraper-filling superstar promos Fox loves so much. But his calf might not cooperate.
Even still, the Judge-less Yankees beating the odds would still make for great October theater. Tough to argue with those gray and black road jersey tops on a warm autumn night in Chavez Ravine.
1. Brewers-Rays
Oh, hell yeah.
First off, this would be a ball enthusiast’s dream, whether from the old or new school. Not only are both teams perennially the “smartest” in the game (mild rolling of the eyes), they also absolutely Play The Game The Right Way.
Put the ball in play. Throw strikes. Run the bases smart and aggressively. Win 103 and 98 games, respectively, even while ranking 28 TH and 22 ND in home runs.
That last bit may come back to haunt the Brewers in Rays come October, since hitting the ball over the fence can camouflage a lot of problems with lineups going cold facing elite arms night after night.
Alas, that’s a problem for another week. And the notion of two alleged poverty franchises reaching the Fall Classic would be unbelievable fodder as labor and management sit down to hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement.
And you could book it now: This World Series would set a new low in TV ratings, underperforming the Arizona-Texas tilt of 2023, which featured relatively large markets. No, for as much as fans claim to love variety, many would sadly deem this battle unwatchable.
And once those ratings come in, and owners ponder the impact on future revenues, perhaps a few of them would be inspired to ask the unthinkable:
“Can’t we make it easier for the Dodgers to get in every year?”
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 28: Manager Chad Tracy #17 of the Boston Red Sox speaks to the media during a workout ahead of the American League Wild Card Series against the New York Yankees on September 28, 2026 at Yankee Stadium in New York, New York. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Chad Tracy is hardly the only person that has been added to the fold between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees’ back-to-back meetings in the American League Wild Card Series.
The Red Sox have made substantial additions to the rotation, with Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez being named the starting pitchers for the best-of-three series at Yankee Stadium — making for a much deeper unit than the one that fell off a cliff after Garrett Crochet last season and relied on the likes of Brayan Bello and Connelly Early. Roman Anthony, Willson Contreras, Adley Rutschman, and Caleb Durbin will join the lineup in hopes to scrape together more than the six total runs they scored last season. Crochet could end up joining the bullpen in his return from injury, along with newcomers Erik Miller and Jake Bennett, which is a pretty decent group of pitchers being added to one of the very best units in baseball this season.
The Yankees will also be in a better position on the pitching side, with Gerrit Cole serving as the do-or-die option behind Cam Schlittler and Max Fried. Luis Garcia Jr., Heliot Ramos, and George Lombard Jr. should help the lineup against left-handers, though there is something to be said about the so-so status of Aaron Judge.
If we can boil all of that down, though, only one man can completely swing the series…
Tracy’s most difficult decisions might come before the season even starts, as he will be relied upon heavily to figure out who will fill out the roster — Braiden Ward? Jarren Duran? Curtis Mead? Jahmai Jones? Nate Eaton? Isiah Kiner-Falefa? Crochet?
It’s not going to be easy, but all of that pales in comparison to making decisions with who will play, when they will play, and how he manages things when the lights are at their brightest in The Bronx.
“It’s the playoffs, so we’re at the point in the season where teams that are remaining need to win or they’re going home,” Tracy said during his media availability on Monday. “I have a feel for that.
“… It’s all hands on deck. I think everyone is aware that during the playoffs it’s about winning moments and being aggressive — all those things. I think most of our guys who have been around understand that, so we’re going to go out and play our butts off and manage and do everything we can to win each game.”
Alex Cora, the manager of last year’s squad that became the first in history to lose the best-of-three series after taking a lead, made some… interesting decisions in hindsight.
Bello was pulled after 2 1/3 innings in Game 2, which led to Justin Wilson, Zack Kelly, Garrett Whitlock, and Tolle being used out of the bullpen and becoming unavailable for Game 3. Nate Eaton started over Wilyer Abreu in Game 2. Rob Refsnyder got two starts over Masataka Yoshida, which makes sense considering they faced two left-handers, but he finished 0-for-5 while the latter went 4-for-7. Nathaniel Lowe played in all three games, while Nick Sogard only played in two.
It’s easy to go back in time and poke holes though these decisions with the benefit of hindsight, but that’s kind of the whole point in looking ahead at the same two teams playing each other again with one of them being led by someone new.
Tracy needs to avoid making similar mistakes, and he needs to do it without the benefit of years of experience in similar situations. The Red Sox stripped him of that interim tag because they believe he can, and it’s only a matter of time before we find out whether or not they’re right.
The Dodgers feature a veteran roster that has, among others, shortstop Mookie Betts, left, infielder Miguel Rojas and third baseman Max Muncy, right. Teoscar Hernández, second from left, celebrates after hitting a grand slam in a July 3 game. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
When Dodgers rookie Josue De Paula debuted a little over two weeks ago, he was the youngest player in the lineup by four years. And when veteran infielder Miguel Rojas pinch-hit for Alex Freeland in the eighth inning, the 21-year-old De Paula and 29-year-old Kyle Tucker were the only Dodgers under 30 remaining in the batting order.
“You’ve got to have both,” veteran shortstop Mookie Betts, who turns 34 next month, said in a recent conversation with the Times. “You need experience, but you also do need youth. I don’t know what the balance is, to be honest.”
The age of the Dodgers’ stars is the most persistent knock on a group that just finished a 100-win regular season and has the second-best odds to win the World Series (16.7%), according to Baseball Prospectus.
It’s the threat looming beyond every new accomplishment. Yes, the Dodgers are in the midst of a historic run. Only one other organization has strung together so many consecutive postseason berths, and that Braves team of the 1990s and early 2000s won only one World Series.
The Dodgers are aiming to become the first National League team to claim three straight championships.
But how long can this last?
The Dodgers’ lineup is the oldest in the majors, according to Baseball Reference, with an average age of 30.9 years old when weighted by at-bats and games played. Their star corner infielders, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, are the oldest of the everyday starters, at 37 and 36, respectively. Even two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani turned 32 in July.
“That’s a fact, we’re an older team,” manager Dave Roberts said. “With age, there’s experience. I know we’re not going to fall off a cliff, our team.”
Plenty of young players in the Dodgers’ system have been blocked by older stars over the years. But in addition to a sky-high payroll, the Dodgers are known for their player development.
Even after the trade deadline — when the Dodgers sent two MLB Top-100 prospects, outfielder Zyhir Hope (No. 25) and right-hander River Ryan (No. 68), to the Tigers as part of the trade package for left-hander Tarik Skubal — the organization’s farm system ranked No. 1 on MLB Pipeline’s rankings.
Serving as a reminder of that strength, when the Dodgers called up De Paula straight from double A, he immediately showed his bat belonged in the big-leagues.
At the same time, injuries stoked the flames of the age discussion. De Paula got his shot because Ohtani finally went on the injured list, after managing problems with his left knee and right biceps for much of the season.
Freeman pushed through knee tendinitis in September. Teoscar Hernández (left hamstring strain) and Betts (right oblique strain) both had monthlong IL stints earlier in the season but have helped carry the offense lately.
“As I’ve gotten older, I’m definitely taking a lot more care of my body,” Betts said. “I know I had an oblique [injury] earlier, but as far as just showing up every day and whatnot, I feel like we do a good job in taking care of our bodies and staying healthy for the most part.
“But I mean, people are talking like we’re the only ones in the league that’s getting hurt. You look everywhere around the league, somebody’s hurt.”
That’s true. And it also isn’t just the guys in their mid-to-late 30’s sustaining soft-tissue injuries. Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing, 25, served back-to-back IL stints for a flexor strain in his forearm down the stretch.
The Dodgers’ roster has proven deep enough to withstand injuries, as the team posted the second-best regular-season record in the majors this year.
“We’re not going to win games the same way that Milwaukee or Tampa Bay or these younger teams are winning games,” said Rojas, 37. “We’re going to win games a different way. We’re going to win games with a lot of talent, with experience, and winning moments.”
Over the years, the Dodgers have brought in players with postseason experience. But roster continuity also has meant that 17 players on this year’s projected postseason roster also contributed to both of the Dodgers’ last two World Series-winning seasons.
So, after playing more games than any other team the past couple years, the Dodgers may be a little hobbled going into their first-round bye. Regardless, they just completed their first 100-win season since 2023.
“The experience, how smart these guys are on the field, I think those things help win moments and win battles on the edges in October,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said when the Dodgers clinched the NL West title earlier this month. “It’s not as easy to navigate through a 162-game season with an older roster. But I do think that experience in those moments will definitely help and we’ll see it shine through at different points in October.”
San Diego, California - September 26: San Diego Padres announce on the video board that Petco Park will host the Chicago Cubs for the National League Wild Card series after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images)
Here we are — the 2026 MLB Postseason.
While the Brewers are awaiting an opponent for the National League Division Series, eight teams will compete in four Wild Card Series this week. Let’s take a quick look at each of the matchups. All times listed in Central Time.
AL Wild Card Series: (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Chicago White Sox
This series is just a sample of how the National League’s playoff field is much deeper than the American League’s — neither of these teams would have made the postseason if they were on the other side. In fact, the Astros, at 81-81, finished with what would have been the ninth-best record in the NL, behind even the 82-80 Pirates. Alas, one of these squads will make it to the NLCS against the Guardians next weekend. The Astros have a bit of an edge here just because of home-field advantage, but the White Sox, who were arguably the biggest surprise in all of baseball, will certainly give them a run for their money. Chicago led the AL Central for a decent chunk of the season and ultimately finished just one game behind Cleveland for the No. 2 seed in the AL.
Pitching: 4.45 team ERA (24th); 4.81 starter ERA (27th); 4.08 reliever ERA (17th); 1,411 Ks (ninth)
White Sox:
Offense: .236/.320/.406 (.726 OPS ranks ninth); 211 HRs (fifth); 776 runs (fifth); 93 SBs (tied for 18th)
Pitching: 4.12 team ERA (15th); 4.60 starter ERA (26th); 3.70 reliever ERA (eighth); 1,337 Ks (tied for 16th)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: RHP AJ Blubaugh (HOU) vs. LHP Hagen Smith (CWS)
Game 2: TBD (HOU) vs. TBD (CWS)
Game 3: TBD (HOU) vs. TBD (CWS)
Prediction
This is a pair of strong offenses and a pair of mediocre pitching staffs, which means I’d expect we’ll see some high-scoring, back-and-forth games. The Astros have home-field advantage, and they also have the better offense, but the White Sox have a very slight edge on the mound. I’ll take the Astros to win in three games.
AL Wild Card Series: (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
A rematch of last year’s AL Wild Card Series, the Yankees took two of three against Boston in three low-scoring games — Boston won the first game 3-1 before the Yankees took the last two games by finals of 4-3 and 4-0. It’s hard to say what we should expect this time around, as the Red Sox have had one of the better offenses in baseball in the second half and the Yankees have arguably the best pitching staff, though the Red Sox’s staff isn’t much worse.
Pitching: 3.54 team ERA (third); 3.92 starter ERA (eighth); 3.00 reliever ERA (first); 1,398 Ks (11th)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs. LHP Payton Tolle (BOS)
Game 2: LHP Max Fried (NYY) vs. RHP Sonny Gray (BOS)
Game 3: RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (BOS)
Prediction
The key to this series is which version of Boston shows up — they looked terrible through late June, had the best month of July of any MLB team, and feel back down to earth over the last month and a half. If that July/early August team shows up, I’d easily pick the Red Sox, but I think they got hot too early. I’ll take the Yankees to win two out of three for the second straight year.
NL Wild Card Series: (3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies backed their way into the final NL Wild Card spot, as the Arizona Diamondbacks nearly replaced them in the playoff field before Philadelphia finally clinched on the final day of the season. The Phils will look to make people forget about that as they have a chance to knock out their division foes in the Braves after doing exactly that in 2022 and 2023, beating them in the NLDS both years. The Braves, meanwhile, have bounced back nicely in 2026 after a very disappointing 2025, and they locked up the NL East with a 94-win season behind a solid offense and even better pitching staff.
Offense: .246/.309/.409 (.718 OPS ranks tied for 16th); 204 HRs (tied for seventh); 742 runs (eighth); 83 SBs (tied for 23rd)
Pitching: 3.63 team ERA (fifth); 3.76 starter ERA (sixth); 3.44 reliever ERA (fourth); 1,350 Ks (15th)
Phillies:
Offense: .240/.312/.395 (.707 OPS ranks 22nd); 182 HRs (tied for 16th); 713 runs (19th); 105 SBs (15th)
Pitching: 4.04 team ERA (11th); 3.80 starter ERA (seventh); 4.43 reliever ERA (21st); 1,577 Ks (first)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: LHP Chris Sale (ATL) vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
Game 2: TBD (ATL) vs. TBD (PHI)
Game 3: TBD (ATL) vs. TBD (PHI)
Prediction
Had the Phillies not had to fight their way to the postseason until the last day of the regular season, I would have been inclined to take them in a short series behind their strong starting pitching, but after they were forced to use their top starters in the final weekend, that advantage may not be there. Having Chris Sale going in game 1 helps the Braves in a major way — I’ll take Atlanta to sweep.
NL Wild Card Series: (4) San Diego Padres vs. (5) Chicago Cubs
Another rematch from last year, this one has changed locations as the Padres caught fire in September to storm atop the NL Wild Card standings, claiming the No. 4 seed as they’ll host the No. 5 seed Cubs, who struggled in the final few weeks of the year. The Cubs, statistically, have the best offense (led by Pete Crow-Armstrong) and defense in baseball, but their bullpen has been dismal, while the Padres have been good in just about every area down the stretch, anchored by their strong bullpen and the second-half resurgence of Fernando Tatis Jr.
Offense: .244/.319/.398 (.717 OPS ranks 18th); 183 HRs (tied for 14th); 722 runs (15th); 164 SBs (tied for second)
Pitching: 3.99 team ERA (10th); 4.42 starter ERA (21st); 3.53 reliever ERA (fifth); 1,315 Ks (20th)
Cubs:
Offense: .251/.339/.428 (.767 OPS ranks first); 220 HRs (third); 850 runs (first); 114 SBs (tied for 10th)
Pitching: 4.12 team ERA (14th); 4.27 starter ERA (18th); 3.90 reliever ERA (13th); 1,260 Ks (26th)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: RHP Michael King (SD) vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Game 2: TBD (SD) vs. TBD (CHC)
Game 3: TBD (SD) vs. TBD (CHC)
Prediction
Had you asked me at the start of September, I would have picked the Cubs to win this series, perhaps even with a sweep. But the Cubs have been inconsistent all season, so I have no idea what to expect. With that in mind, I’ll take the safer bet and pick the Padres to win two of three and move on to face the Brewers.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 23: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks on during the seventh inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on September 23, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
At long last, we’ve reached judgment day. Or, perhaps, the first of many days of judgment, pun intended. Today, the Yankees’ 2026 postseason run begins, as the club hopes that this foray into October baseball lasts longer than last year’s did. We will also learn today whether Aaron Judge will be on the playoff roster, as the slugger was on the field taking live batting practice just yesterday less than two weeks after suffering a calf strain. The stakes, both with regard to Judge’s health, and with the Yankees’ matchup with their archnemesis, are unbearably high.
Let’s take a deep breath, and jump in together. On the site today, Dani will preview Game 1 against the Red Sox, while Andrew runs our sitewide postseason predictions. Later, we’ll see Peter’s At-bat of the Week feature Ryan McMahon, and John’s entry in the Yankee Birthday series profiles Scranton manager Shelley Duncan. Also, as the Yankees embark on their playoff journey, Michael finds an optimistic slant and compares the Yankees’ impending run to the 2026 Knicks’ run to a legendary championship.
Today’s Matchup:
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
TV: NBC/Peacock
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Questions/Prompts:
1. Alright, what do you think: is Aaron Judge in the lineup tonight?
2. Are you worried about the Yankee lineup facing lefty Payton Tolle, with or without Judge?
The openers of the four best-of-three wild card series take place Tuesday, with Game 2s on Wednesday and if necessary, winner-take-all Game 3s on Thursday. The winners advance to the best-of-five Division Series, which begin on Saturday, Oct. 3.
The World Series begins on Friday, Oct. 23 at the home ballpark of the pennant winner with the better record. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the reigning World Series champions and enter the fold in the Division Series after earning a bye.
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DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 27: Mason Montgomery #46 of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Rafael Flores Jr. #43 celebrate after the Pirates defeated the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Sunday, September 27, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Izzy Rincon/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
There hasn’t been a lot of celebrating for the Pittsburgh Pirates over the years but they were able to achieve one pretty big goal this season. The Pirates finished the 2026 season with a winning record, 82-80, after defeating the Detroit Tigers 4-2 in the series/season finale at Comerica Park on Sept. 27.
The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 2018, when they went 82-79, marking seven seasons of poor baseball. There have been a couple of close seasons throughout the years but they were never able to get over the hump.
It was tied for the second-longest streak in baseball, with only the Los Angeles Angels having more at 11 and the Colorado Rockies at eight this season.
In 2025, The Bucs went 71-91 and finished last in the NL Central. The Pirates also had the fifth worst record in all of baseball.
Pittsburgh finished third in the division, and had a winning record and an 11-win improvement from last season. It is just the fifth winning season in the past 34 years for the Pirates, including their three postseason appearances, 2013-15.
The Pirates were even in the third Wild Card spot in late July, but seven straight losing series put them six games below .500 and they fell too far behind to make up ground. It is frustrating to see a promising season slip but even though this was not a playoff team this year it still feels like The Pirates are treading into the right direction to snap their massive playoff drought.
Even though fans in the steel city want to see them in the postseason, this season should still be considered a victory. The Pirates went from being an irrelevant laughably bad team to a squad that was respected and competitive this year.
The playoffs felt like an unrealistic goal for this young team before the season started. With all the inexperience and the defensive being a major question making the postseason felt fair fetched but now with a lot of that young talent coming together and if they can keep Brandon Lowe the playoffs seem like a legit possibility for 2027.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 23: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks on from the dugout during the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on September 23, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
MLB.com | Max Ralph: Last week, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Aaron Judge would miss the Wild Card Series, but the slugger had other plans. Judge himself is aiming to play against the Red Sox and is ramping up baseball activities, as he partook in indoor hitting and throwing on Sunday before participating in a live BP session against Elmer Rodríguez today. While the thought of Judge rushing his return and playing in a diminished state or re-aggravating his calf is scary, having his righty bat against Boston’s collection of lefty pitchers would certainly be a boon — if he’s not as rusty as he looked in September.
FanGraphs | Jay Jaffe: The Yankees and Red Sox are meeting in the Wild Card Series for the second year in a row, but this year’s matchup looks a whole lot different than last year’s. While the 2025 editions of both clubs featured high-octane offenses, this year the bitter rivals each feature elite pitching in what looks to be a low-scoring affair. No matter what shape the games take, here’s hoping that the Yankees enjoy the same outcome as last year.
The Athletic | Brendan Kuty: ($) Cam Schlittler’s eight-inning, 12-strikeout, scoreless start against the Red Sox in Game 3 of last year’s Wild Card Series was one for the ages. It was also fueled by online hate directed towards Schlittler from Red Sox Nation prior to the game. Apparently, some members of the Boston faithful have still continued to chirp online. To his credit, Schlittler seems unfazed, saying, “At the end of the day, when I get prepared for whatever day I start, it’s not what I’m going to be thinking about.”
FanGraphs | Dan Szymborski: Finally, the 2026 ZiPS game-by-game postseason odds have gone live on FanGraphs! In contrast to the regular season-version, playoff ZiPS incorporates matchup-specific info – starters, lineups, players’ health status – to provide win-loss odds for each individual game. For what it’s worth, the model gives the Yankees a 52.6% chance of besting the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, with favorable odds in both Game 1 and 2.
Shohei Ohtani, Jacob Misiorowski and Junior Caminero will all play a big part in this year’s playoffs. Composite: Guardian Pictures (via Getty)
Team who will most be missed from the playoffs
The Mariners. The only active MLB team to have never appeared in a World Series came within a single win of ending that hoodoo last October and appeared poised to go one stage further in 2026. Instead, their 76-86 clunker feels like a wasted chance for a lineup featuring Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. BAG
The Pirates could have brought real verve to the postseason with a healthy Konnor Griffin at shortstop and Paul Skenes on the mound. Sadly the team dug too deep a hole in August and, in usual Pirate fashion, didn’t give themselves a chance. AK
That has to be the Orioles, which means Pete Alonso’s F-David Stearns tour won’t see the bright lights of the postseason. The Mets’ president of baseball operations, one with almost all the money in the world at his disposal, who didn’t offer a contract to Alonso – who hit 43 home runs, arguably the second-best season of his career – is finally off the hook. That is, at least until a would-be 2027 season. Too bad. DL
High seed at risk of going out early
The American League’s No 2 seed is an 85-win division champion with a plus-11 run differential who FanGraphs suggests was closer to a .500 ball club. The Guardians have the pitching to thrive in close games, but a lineup without a 20-homer batter leaves them little room for error. BAG
The Dodgers are finally going to face the consequences that come with age, variance, and having had to play an extra 31 games over the prior two postseasons. They still have no big weaknesses, but their lineup is old (the average age on their roster is 31, making them the oldest team in MLB) and has occasionally looked the part this year. AK
If you needed a team to squeak out a single run under pressure against great playoff pitching, that’s not the Yankeeswith Aaron Judge in the lineup. Without him, against some superb Red Sox hurlers, the swing-and-a-miss Bronx Bombers have even less of a chance of putting runs on the board. They could find themselves bronzing in Cancún sooner rather than later. DL
Dark horse to win
It seems odd to call a team with baseball’s best offense and defense a dark horse, but the Cubs’ leaky relief pitching makes them one. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman give Chicago plenty of ways to win games. If the bullpen can keep the ball in the park, they could go far. BAG
The Rays will always have a dark-horse feel, even in a year when they win the AL East. Pitching could be the difference here: whether injured starter Shane McClanahan returns at some point or not, the deadline acquisition of Freddy Peralta from the Mets ensures rotation depth that will serve this club well. AK
How can a team with 98 wins be a dark horse? When they don’t hit for power, get on base less than the Rockies, and their ability to score is a little better than middle of the road. They play in a condom-covered dump in front of some of the leanest crowds in the league. An inspiring, title-like set up? Nope, and the Rays are dark horses because few fans know they even exist. Pragmatic as they come though; they can pitch and Kevin Cash can manage. The AL can’t handle them, and the Dodgers are vulnerable. DL
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Player to watch …
Tarik Skubal arrives in October as the centerpiece of baseball’s most formidable rotation, with a potential record-setting free agency ahead. Every start will be judged against the imposing price the Dodgers paid to acquire him in their bid for a rare third straight title. BAG
Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson is a throwback, a defense, speed and batting average-heavy corner outfielder who’s made a place for himself despite lacking the power that makes most great modern hitters. In a lineup with a lot of thump, Simpson’s slap hitting offers a bit of variety. AK
Sticking to my Rays theme, it’s Junior Caminero. The Dominican gets no recognition, or at least not enough, despite crushing close to 90 home runs in two years, while also hitting for average. He’s making strides every season and he’s only 23. At some point the third baseman is going to be very expensive, so who knows how long he’ll remain on the Gulf. At the moment, he’s the straw that stirs Tampa’s tipple, and now Caminero has the spotlight. DL
Most important factor this postseason/offseason
The labor talks. The collective bargaining agreement expires on 1 December and MLB’s salary-cap proposal remains at odds with the players’ intractable position. A lockout could freeze the hot-stove market while a prolonged dispute could torpedo the 2027 season entirely. Whatever happens on the field, the most important baseball story after the Fall Classic will unfold across a bargaining table. BAG
The lack of great teams in the American League. The Rays may be a great team, but is anyone else in the Junior Circuit? MLB’s three best teams – the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves – are all in the NL, and I’d probably prefer the Cubs over any team in the AL at the moment, too. The AL has a true “anyone’s ballgame” feel. You could imagine this league producing a truly weird pennant winner. AK
The postseason CBA negotiations may not bring us world peace, but hopefully they will create a new rule that bans teams with .500 records or worse from winning a division, or reaching the playoffs via a wildcard spot. The team with the best above-.500 record not to qualify for the playoffs, regardless of league, will replace that team, and the sub-.500 bums will not be allowed to complain AT ALL. And God forbid the Astros win the 2026 World Series, I will pull whatever is left of my hair out. Who’s with me? DL
NLCS
Dodgers over Brewers. BAG
Brewers over Dodgers. AK
Brewers over Dodgers. DL
ALCS
Rays over White Sox. BAG
Rays over White Sox. AK
Rays over Guardians. DL
Your World Series winners will be …
The Rays will put the ball in play, run the basepaths aggressively and make the Dodgers earn their outs. But a rotation of Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow gives the Dodgers four starters capable of shutting down the Rays’ contact-heavy lineup, while the incandescent Shohei Ohtani supplies the power capable of turning any close game with one swing of the bat. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay may grade out better analytically, but the smell test clearly favors the Dodgers to become only the third franchise to win three consecutive World Series crowns. BAG
The Brewers will finally get the right October mixture this year. They have the same deep lineup as usual, with no real stars but also no weaknesses. Jacob Misiorowski gives them a rotation trump card that they haven’t had since CC Sabathia’s brief run in Milwaukee after the 2008 trade deadline. And they have the necessary high-leverage relievers (Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby) to feel good about any game that’s still competitive after six innings. AK
In many ways the Brewers and Rays are mirror images of each other, especially when it comes to their contract-based approaches to baseball. They are also similar in the way that absolutely nobody except their fans wants to see such a matchup. The Brewers have the overwhelming ace in Misiorowski, but the Rays have more pitching depth. They’re also due to win, with the owners detesting this matchup which proves lower payroll teams can win it all. And at precisely the wrong time. DL
Jesús Luzardo will start Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series on Tuesday in Atlanta, 22 days after his previous start.
Activated from the injured list Sunday, Luzardo threw four pitches and induced three groundouts. The appearance could not show how deep he is ready to pitch, but the Phillies came away comfortable enough to give him the ball.
Luzardo’s previous start showed why the Phillies wanted that option. On Sept. 7, Labor Day, he threw the first complete game of his career in his 150th major league start. He struck out 12 and needed 109 pitches in a 1-0 win over the Braves.
It completed a 16-start run in which Luzardo went 10-1 with a 1.70 ERA and the Phillies went 14-2. No qualified pitcher in baseball had a lower ERA from June 10 through Sept. 7.
His average arm angle in the complete game was 26.5 degrees.
That reading put a stamp on a trend that had developed start by start. Luzardo was at 32.1 degrees on June 5. His angle dipped below 30 on June 23 and remained there for each of his final 14 starts.
As the angle fell, his results improved. The connection is more complicated than one mechanical number. Luzardo also threw more first-pitch strikes and leaned harder on one of baseball’s best sweepers in favorable counts.
Asked Monday about the lower slot, J.T. Realmuto pointed to more than the breaking ball.
“I don’t know the numbers or anything to back it up, but for me, it actually feels like his fastball got better,” Realmuto said.
Realmuto saw Luzardo beating right-handed hitters with the four-seamer more often. Better location could have contributed, but the pitches also worked together.
“I feel like his fastball played up when his arm slot lowered a little bit, and that just makes the sweeper that much better,” Realmuto said.
The numbers support what Realmuto saw. Against right-handed hitters, Luzardo’s four-seam whiff rate rose from 15.2 percent over his first 15 starts to 23.4 percent over his final 14. Their slugging percentage in plate appearances ending with the pitch fell from .554 to .389.
The lower slot was not entirely new. Luzardo raised his arm in 2024 to create more ride on his four-seam fastball. The delivery aggravated his back, and a lumbar stress reaction ended his season in June. With the Phillies in 2025, he returned to a lower slot that better fit his body and new sweeper.
He went lower again in 2026 without a planned overhaul or target number. Speaking Sept. 11 during the Phillies’ previous trip to Atlanta, Luzardo said he followed what felt right.
“It just felt better,” Luzardo said. “Just felt cleaner and easier for me to repeat my mechanics that way.”
“Gradually, some days I would throw a little lower, and I was like, ‘All right, that feels pretty good. Let me try that out,'” Luzardo said. “Every time I threw down there, it just felt cleaner and cleaner.”
Phillies assistant pitching coach Mark Lowy, who spoke that same day, has known Luzardo since the left-hander was a teenager. He also sees a delivery that works better with a lower slot.
“For him, the slot being lower, the rotation is a little bit cleaner,” Lowy said. “It just seems like that works with his body.”
“It’s more like a health and philosophy thing for me than pitch shapes or execution,” Lowy said. “I think he’s just kind of settled back down into more of a natural slot.”
One day later, left shoulder stiffness forced Luzardo out of his scheduled start. The Phillies eventually placed him on the 15-day injured list with inflammation. The timing adds context to Lowy’s health framing. The lower slot did not make Luzardo injury-proof, but it does not erase what the preceding three months showed.
A real change, with a tracking caveat
Statcast measures arm angle from a pitcher’s throwing shoulder to the ball at release. Luzardo’s pitch-weighted average fell from 31.4 degrees over his first 15 starts to 26.7 over his final 14, a drop of 4.7 degrees.
The shift cannot be explained by throwing more sweepers, a pitch he already releases from a lower angle. His arm angle dropped by at least four degrees on each of his four pitches. His release point also moved about two inches lower and three inches farther to the side.
Lowy warned against placing too much weight on a comparison between readings from different ballparks.
“I’m always a little bit of a skeptic with some of the measurements we get outside of CBP,” Lowy said. “Just ’cause you never know how well everything’s calibrated, and I don’t want to compare, you know, a road park to our home park.”
One road start still stood out. On July 9 in Cincinnati, Luzardo followed what felt natural instead of forcing his arm higher.
“Cincinnati stood out to me when he threw there, just visually,” Lowy said. “Throughout the outing, it just looked lower. I think instead of trying to create it differently, he kind of just fed into the lower slot, then he threw really well that day.”
Luzardo’s measured angle was 25.7 degrees. He allowed two hits over seven scoreless innings and struck out 11. Entering 2026, his previous lows were 28.0 degrees in a regular-season start and 27.6 in the postseason. Cincinnati was his first start on record below 27.
The broader change remains clear when road readings are removed. Luzardo averaged 31.3 degrees in his eight early starts at Citizens Bank Park. He averaged 26.1 in his six later home starts, a 5.2-degree drop measured in the same ballpark.
What changed with it
June 23 is the dividing line because it was Luzardo’s first start below 30 degrees.
Metric
First 15 starts
Final 14 starts
Arm angle
31.4°
26.7°
Innings
85 2/3
93
ERA
4.20
1.65
Estimated xERA
3.41
2.32
WHIP
1.31
0.87
Opponent average
.259
.170
Strikeout rate
26.6%
34.2%
Walk rate
7.4%
6.9%
His estimated xERA, which accounts for strikeouts, walks and quality of contact, also improved. The actual ERA swing was even larger.
Lowy said early results obscured some good work. A broken-bat single and a nine-pitch walk could precede a three-run homer. In another order, the same events might produce one run.
“All the numbers underneath the surface early on pointed to, like, dude, you’re doing a really, really good job,” Lowy said. “Let’s not panic.”
The lower angle should not receive credit for every result. Luzardo allowed five runs, one earned, in his first sub-30-degree start. He later allowed six earned runs in Miami at 26.8 degrees.
The relevant change is his broader move into a lower release window, not whether he was at 25 degrees or 27 in one start.
An elite sweeper, used differently
Luzardo’s sweeper finished among the best pitches in baseball. Only five qualifying pitches produced more than its plus-23 run value. Its 47.6 percent whiff rate ranked fifth. The .159 slugging percentage against it was third lowest, while the .112 batting average was second lowest.
The movement numbers alone do not show the lower slot making it better. The sweeper’s horizontal movement held at about 8.5 inches. Its velocity barely changed, and its whiff rate went from 47.2 percent to 47.8.
“I don’t think the pitch necessarily changed,” Luzardo said. “I think maybe a lower slot, different approach angle.”
The same break can look different from a lower and wider starting point. Luzardo believes the ball begins farther behind a left-handed hitter and farther away from a right-handed hitter.
“Whether it does add or doesn’t add more inches horizontally, I think just the angle itself probably helps me,” Luzardo said.
The lower release also works with his sinker, which moves in the opposite direction.
“Adding the sinker out of that slot kind of creates a little more east and west,” Luzardo said.
The results were most pronounced against left-handed hitters. Their chase rate against his sweeper rose from 38 percent to 46 percent. In 41 plate appearances that ended with the pitch during the second span, lefties had two singles in 40 at-bats and struck out 29 times.
Across Luzardo’s entire arsenal, lefties hit .105 in the second span. His strikeout rate against them climbed from 26 percent to 44 percent.
The largest strategic change was when Luzardo threw the sweeper. With two strikes, its usage jumped from 43.3 percent to 56.4. His changeup use in those counts fell from 23.7 percent to 10.7.
“Analytically now, baseball is going towards, like, you throw your best pitch in favorable counts,” Luzardo said.
The sweeper’s chase rate climbed from 33 percent to 42 percent. Its putaway rate, the share of two-strike sweepers that produced a strikeout, rose from 27 percent to 32 percent.
“I think more guys just have a hole to a sweeper than they do to a changeup,” Luzardo said. “A lot of times changeup seems to be a weak-contact pitch. And if you’re looking for swing and miss, it’s probably something else, at least for me.”
The changeup was not obsolete. Luzardo said the choice remained lineup-dependent, but he found more chances to finish hitters with the sweeper.
More first-pitch strikes
Getting ahead was a separate adjustment. Luzardo did not describe it as a direct result of lowering his arm.
“I was struggling earlier,” Luzardo said. “I don’t think it was really because of that, but I was falling behind more.”
His overall zone rate barely changed, from 46.2 percent to 46.9. His first-pitch strike rate made a larger jump, from 59.8 percent to 65.4.
“I think that we just made a conscious effort, like, I need to get in the zone more. I need to start ahead more,” Luzardo said. “Whatever pitch that is, make sure it’s in the zone.”
Getting the first strike created more chances to use his sweeper. His overall chase rate increased only one point, from 33.2 percent to 34.2. The larger increase was concentrated against his best pitch.
The lower slot happened by feel. The commitment to early strikes was intentional. They developed together during the best stretch of his career, even if the data cannot assign each change an exact share of the credit.
Luzardo finished the regular season 14-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 221 strikeouts in 179 2/3 innings.
“He knows what he needs rather than, ‘I’m gonna go do what everyone else does, because that’s how it’s supposed to look,'” Lowy said.
The Phillies do not know how many innings Luzardo can give them Tuesday. Sunday showed that he could return to a major league mound. His final 16 starts explained why they were willing to put him back on one in Game 1.
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When the Yankees faced a Red Sox lefty in Game 1 of the AL wild-card series last year, Aaron Boone sent Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the bench, much to his chagrin.
History could repeat itself Tuesday night, with Boone having to decide whether to start the left-handed hitting Chisholm or the right-handed hitting Anthony Volpe at second base against southpaw Payton Tolle.
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Chisholm said Monday he expected to be in the lineup Tuesday, but had not yet heard anything from Boone. Asked if he would be “angry” not to be in the lineup to face Tolle — against whom he is 1-for-5 with a home run and two strikeouts — Chisholm indicated he would.
“As a competitor, who wouldn’t be?” said Chisholm, who was upset last year when he was not in the Game 1 lineup against lefty Garrett Crochet. “It’s the playoffs, you want to play.”
Chisholm started both games against Tolle during the regular season, though the Yankees roster composition will be different this time around, including having Volpe (0-for-2 against Tolle) as a utility player. Chisholm also only got 12 plate appearances under his belt after returning from the IL last week for a right thumb sprain.
Boone brought up Chisholm’s recent injury when acknowledging he was considering platooning him and Volpe at second base.
“Volpe is very much in play,” Boone said. “The platoon stuff is in play there. Obviously Jazz is just coming back from the thumb. He was able to get a couple games in, would have liked another one or two, but the weather didn’t really cooperate this weekend. Anthony’s put himself very much in the mix to be a part of the equation.”
Chisholm, a pending free agent, had a mostly brutal contract year in the regular season but had been playing his best baseball when he got hurt earlier this month. He was asked if he would understand why Boone would play the platoon matchups in this series.
New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. runs off the field in the sixth inning during the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026, in New York. AP Photo/Adam Hunger
Ryan Weathers threw an inning of live batting practice Monday, which the Yankees will have to take into account when deciding whether the left-hander will be on their roster. Because he is coming back from a left forearm flexor strain, the live session Monday will likely make him unavailable to pitch in Game 1 on Tuesday, but would he be recovered in time to pitch either Wednesday or Thursday?
Weathers’ first live session was Friday, and he threw again Monday on two days’ rest. If he makes the roster, the Yankees will essentially have him for one inning versus another lefty like Tim Hill, who would probably be available to pitch in all three games.
Crochet, who has been out since April with a shoulder injury, threw a second live batting practice Saturday as he attempts to rush through an expedited rehab that could land him on the Red Sox wild-card roster.
“I guess now it’s just a matter of if anybody agrees with me,” said Crochet, who was pleased with his stuff and his health. “I’ve been busting my tail just to give myself a fighting chance, and I feel like I did that. … Now just waiting for the roster to come out.”
Red Sox manager Chad Tracy said he did not know yet whether Crochet would crack the roster. He felt more optimistic about Willson Contreras, who returned to the lineup Sunday after missing eight games with a bruised hand.
“We’ll make sure we get everybody through [the workout] and see where we’re at, but I think he’s ready to go,” Tracy said.
One other roster curiosity for the Red Sox: Triple-A outfielder Braiden Ward traveled with the team to The Bronx because he stole 61 bases in the minors this season and could be added as a pinch runner.
If so, the 27-year-old would be making his major league debut.
“It’s like a dream — it’s a fever dream,” Ward said. “One day I’m in Worcester, the next day I’m in Florida, the next day I’m at the nicest hotel I’ve ever stayed at in New York City, the greatest view, the greatest team, getting to hopefully play in the greatest rivalry.”
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 07: Dylan Cease #84 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches against the Athletics in the bottom of the first inning at Sutter Health Park on September 07, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Each year, I look at how each Jays player performed during the season.
We signed Dylan Cease on December 2nd last year. He got a seven-year, $210 million contract. I read a few baseball commentators call it the worst free-agent signing of the off-season. Right now, they appear very wrong.
We disagreed. 42.9% of us were ‘Kind of Happy’, 41.8% were Very Happy. Only 5.1% were Kind of or Very Unhappy.
Cease spent the previous two seasons with the Padres. He had a very good season in 2024, a 3.47 ERA and a 4.0 bWAR and a less good 2025 season, with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.0 bWAR.
The Jays thought they saw something in him that they could ‘fix’. I’m always dubious of teams thinking that. But it seems like the Jays were right.
Baseball Reference has him at 5.7 WAR, and Fangraphs has him at 5.5, valuing him at $43.9 million to the Blue Jays.
Dylan had a 2.56 FIP and 2.93 xFIP.
He had a .274 BABIP (down from .320 last year). 77.8% of the base runners he allowed were stranded (up from 69.0% last year).
Cease’s line drive rate was 20.4% (down from 21.8% last year). His ground ball rate was 42.1% (up from 36.6). And the fly ball rate was 37.5% (down from 41.5). 8.1% of his fly balls left the park (down from 11.9).
His strikeout rate was 34.9% (up from 29.8), while his walk rate was up 11.4% from 9.8.
Dylan’s soft contact rate was up (21.6% from 17.2). Hard contact was down (29.0% from 33.8).
He was slightly better vs. LHB (.167/.267/.271) than RHB (.198/.289/.270). Career, he has been a fair bit better vs. right-handed batters.
Cease was better on the road (batters hit.162/.257/.234, with a 1.94 ERA) than at home (.198/.295/.305 with a 2.85 ERA).
He was slightly better in the second half (2.17, .167/.265/.285) than in the first half (2.56, .190/.284/.261).
Cease by month:
April: 6 starts, 1-1, 2.87. Batters hit .220/.326/.246 with 0 home runs, 17 walks and 49 strikeouts.
May: 5 starts, 2-2, 3.23. Batters hit .209/.275/.373 with 5 home runs, 9 walks and 43 strikeouts.
June: 4 starts, 1-1, 2.95. Batters hit .182/.308/.221 with 0 home runs, 14 walks and 36 strikeouts..
July: 5 starts, 3-1, 1.00. Batters hit .125/.198/.217 with 2 home runs, 11 walks and 46 strikeouts.
August: 5 starts, 2-0, 2.03. Batters hit .144/.242/.260 with 3 home runs, 14 walks and 43 strikeouts.
September: 4 starts, 2-1, 2.89. Batters hit .214/.333/.314 with 1 home run, 13 walks and 22 strikeouts.
The Jays were 18-11 in his starts. They averaged 4.56 runs per game in his starts. They scored 3 or fewer runs in 11 of his starts.
Days of rest:
4 days, 13 starts: 5-3, 2.75 ERA, batters hit .178/.280/.280.
5 days, 10 starts: 5-1, 1.96 ERA, batters hit .167/.263/.234.
6 or more days: 6 starts, 1-2, 2.38 ERA, batters hit .206/.291/.310.
By Catcher:
Tyler Heineman: 5 games, 4.23 ERA, batters hit .230/.350/.310.
Alejandro Kirk: 15 games, 2.44 ERA, batters hit .173/.276/.256.
Brandon Valenzuela: 9 games, 1.43 ERA, batters hit .167/.236/.273.
Times through the order:
1st: Batters hit .160/.257/.255.
2nd: Batters hit .174/.251/.230.
3rd: Batters hit .224/.346/.366.
4th: Batters hit ..250/.400/.250 in just 5 PA.
Dylan was good with RISP, holding batters to a .200/.255/.255 line.
In high-leverage spots, batters hit .233/.284/.291. Low leverage .157/.259/.252.
His best start, according to GameScore, was a 94 on July 25th, in Boston. He went 9 innings, allowing 1 hit, 3 walks, and 12 strikeouts. He also posted an 88 on July 8th in San Francisco, allowing 1 hit in 8 innings, with 3 walks and 11 strikeouts.
The worst start was a 38 GameScore. September 18th, going 2.2 innings, allowing 3 hits, 4 runs, 1 earned run, 6 walks and 6 strikeouts against the Rangers. You likely remember it.
José averaged 5.8 innings per start.
Cease had a super season. He tired a bit near the end. I didn’t think the Jays really worked him all that hard; he threw 169 innings. In 2024, he threw 189 innings. But then different innings cause different stresses.
It was a nice way to start a seven-year contract. Odds are his last couple of seasons won’t be as good, but we have a while until then. He’s clearly our opening-day starter next year. When 77% of your outs are strikeouts or groundouts, it is a good season.
I’m not going to worry (much) about his ‘tired arm’ at the end of the season. If they suddenly schedule surgery, then I’ll worry, but a tired arm does happen.
Before the season, Steamer projected him to make 32 starts, throw 185 innings with a 3.61 ERA, a 12-10 record, and a 3.8 fWAR. The 185 innings was overly hopeful, but the rest they undershot the target.
By Baseball Savant, his fastball was a little slower than last year: 96.8 mph this year, 97.1 last year, but it got hit harder last year: .204 this year, .241 last. His slider was also harder, 89.1 to 88.7 this year. Batters hit his slider at .145 this year, .228 last year.
We changed his pitch usage some:
Four Seamer: 37.0% this year, 42.1% last year.
Slider: 30.1% this year, 40.8 last year.
Change-up: 11.5% this year, 1.2 last.
Knuckle Curve: 10.1% this year, 8.3 last.
Sinker: 7.9% this year, 3.9 last.
Sweeper: 3.5% this year, 3.5 last.
Before the season we asked:
If the over/under on Dylan’s innings is 180, I’d take the…..33.81% of us were right. If he hadn’t tired at the end, it would have been very close.
We also asked, “If the over/under on Dylan’s wins in his seven-year contract was 77”. 52.9% of us picked the over. We also asked who would be the opening-day starter. 9.3 said, Cease. Most were right in picking Gausman.tarter. 9.3 said Cease. Most were right picking Gausman.
There are several Yankees roster questions whose answers will dictate the outfield alignment for the Game 1 lineup. Will Aaron Judge play? And if so, would he be mobile enough to play right field? How about Trent Grisham? Can Heliot Ramos be trusted in right field?
The only certainty, really, is Cody Bellinger’s presence in left field. But Spencer Jones has made a charge that gives him a strong argument to be 1) in center field and 2) in the middle of the lineup even against a strong lefty in Boston’s Payton Tolle.
Among the more impressive, and surprising, aspects of Jones’ emergence is how he has done it: A mighty lefty slugger with a notorious whiffing problem in the minors has done the bulk of his major league damage against fellow lefties.
New York Yankees left fielder Jose Caballero (72), center fielder Spencer Jones (78) and right fielder Heliot Ramos (34) celebrate after defeating the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
An outlier of a talent, he has also been an outlier among young lefty hitters in slashing .389/.441/.667 in 59 plate appearances against southpaws.
“I think we get a lot of times caught up in a smaller sample, but from my watching him, I feel like he’s been really impressive against left-handed [pitching],” manager Aaron Boone said during Monday’s workout day in The Bronx ahead of Tuesday’s wild-card series opener against the Red Sox. “It’s not just, ‘Yeah, he’s gotten hits,’ but he’s faced a lot of tough lefties and not only held his own but kind of thrived.”
Many young lefty hitters require a platoon complement at least early in their careers. In explaining his success against lefty pitching, Jones mentioned conversations with other “really good left-handed hitters on this team,” with Bellinger among the best in the game at hitting lefty-on-lefty.
“It’s just about I think making tight turns,” Jones said, “and being ready and preparing yourself for left-handed arms. Kind of just having an idea, visualizing, what you want to do and where you want to hit the ball. It’s a combination of a lot of things.”
The biggest threat to Jones’ lineup spot is Grisham, who has been sidelined since Sept. 4 with a hamstring strain but has felt healthy enough to be activated for several days, a process delayed by the complications of optioning another player so close to the postseason.
Boone said Grisham, who was set to take live batting practice Monday, is “very much in play” to be a part of the wild-card roster.
If Grisham is cleared, it would set up Boone with a decision between a rookie’s potential and a veteran’s experience. Grisham is more sure-handed in center but does not have Jones’ legs. Jones, who has been spotty defensively, does not have Grisham’s years of reps and is probably a bigger risk to misplay a routine ball, even if he has a better chance at making a spectacular play.
Regardless, Jones — who struck out 200 times at Double-A Somerset in 2024 and who in 2025 could not fight his way to the majors — has positioned himself well for not just a roster spot but playing time.
New York Yankees’ Trent Grisham (12) takes batting practice before a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026. Robert Sabo for NY Post
Which is starkly different from his status at this time last year, when he and his girlfriend drove from Triple-A Scranton back home to Nashville, Tenn. They watched Cam Schlittler dominate in Game 3 of the wild-card series on an iPad in the car and during a stop at a Chipotle.
“What I was thinking about [then] was: being on the team, being in that lineup and being able to play in these games,” Jones said. “Now we get to come in here this week, and I’m excited about it.”
