Category: Baseball

We are beginning to see the 2026 roster shape up – now it’s time to get your time machines out.

What Cleveland baseball player from the past would make the biggest impact on the 2026 Cleveland Guardians?

Is it 2017 Francisco Lindor anchoring the team from the shortstop position? Or 1948 Lou Boudreau?

Is it 2002 Jim Thome or 2006 Travis Hafner providing thump in the middle of the lineup? Maybe 1953 Al Rosen gets to DH and spell Jose at third?

Is it 2014 Michael Brantely in right field? 1994 Kenny Lofton in center? 2006 Grady Sizemore in center? 1920 Tris Speaker in center?

1995 Albert Belle providing a shock to the system in left?

Or do you want an ace – maybe 2017 Corey Kluber, 1946 Bob Feller, 2008 CC Sabathia, 1969 Sam McDowell, 1972 Gaylord Perry, 2008 Cliff Lee or 1968 Luis Tiant?

Let us know your choice in the comments below!

I recently finished this new book from Jane Leavy—previous biographer of the likes of Mickey Mantle, Sandy Koufax, & Babe Ruth. As baseball nonfiction tomes go, I found it—okay. A LOT of snark, but if you can handle that you’ll enjoy it even more than I did.

Make Me Commissioner’s basic premise is Leavy analyzing what seems to be holding MLB back at the moment compared to its previous heydays. The usual topics of analytics, rule changes, youth specialization, marketing, and economic structure are all present and accounted for. The author may be a tad late to the party for die-hard hardballers, but in the end comes to some cogent conclusions.

This got me thinking: what would I do if given the MLB commissionership (besides of course the obvious eviction of The Pohlad Bunch for my hometown residents)? I think my top three ideas would look something like this…

Decry #1: Fix—or at least work on—competitive balance

Right now, MLB is as out-of-whack economically as it has been since the late-1990s. Every offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers & New York Mets—and maybe a few other clubs here and there—load up on the high-octane free agent talent while the rest of the league picks through the scrap heap. The luxury tax and cable TV contracts held the competitive balance line as long as they could—but no more.

For as nice of a bounce-back as baseball has had the last few years, this is a ticking time bomb threatening to destroy hope in most markets before Opening Day dawns. Put in a salary cap to appease the owners and institute a salary floor to make sure those same owners don’t just turtle up. But something needs to be done, even if—as much as I hate to say it—it means games lost in 2027.

Decry #2: Make SP matter again

Perhaps the idea I most agreed with Leavy on was the notion that “baseball used to tell a story”. The “hook” of the story was the starting pitcher—but now that position is more sacrifice-able pawn than endgame piece.

With hurlers on strict pitch counts to prevent injuries—even that hasn’t made much of a dent—and going max-effort on every throw, SP-as-focal-point of any given contest has faded away in favor of bullpen churn-and-burn. No doubt the statistically-significant way to gain an edge—but also dampening the overall aesthetic.

Gradually shrinking P roster spots? Losing the DH when the SP is removed? I’m not sure what the answer is, but if I’m commish I’m working on it right now.

Decry #3: Give a little away for free

From the early-00s to about 2022, TV contracts kept MLB afloat financially. Sure, there were still disparities even within that structure, but the Twins (or other small-market owners) were allowed the opportunity to re-invest that yearly big check without a ton of risk. Cord-cutting and streaming killed all that.

I like the new Sunday Night Baseball partnership with NBC—that’s a good first step. But MLB could go further—especially in-market. Why not put all Saturday/Sunday games on over-the-air (not cable/streaming) local TV? Keep them all on the MLB TV plans too, but entice more subscriptions by giving away some product for free.

MLB needs every new pair of eyeballs—especially the young ones—to continuing thriving. The on-field product has improved fairly substantially in the last 2-3 years—now more people need to be able to see it.

I don’t want to give the impression that MLB is a flailing endeavor. But there are clearly some areas that need work in order to preserve its integrity for future generations.

If you found your name taped over Rob Manfred’s at MLB headquarters, what would you focus on?

The Rockies have always prided themselves on being a draft-and-develop team. Without the dollars to match the Dodgers or Yankees, they have to; however, they haven’t excelled in either area in recent years. 

Enter Colorado’s new general manager Josh Brynes, and his plan for development. Byrnes spent the last 11 years in Los Angeles, overseeing player development and scouting for the back-to-back reigning World Series Champion Dodgers — an organization that drew high praise from superstar Bryce Harper in a recent interview with The Athletic. 

“It bothers me when everybody talks about the Dodgers spending money. No, they draft, they develop, they do it the right way,” Harper said in a Feb. 15 article. “They understand what it takes to be the best team in baseball.”

Now Brynes will be bringing his philosophies on what worked in Los Angeles to Colorado, where the Rockies are coming off six straight losing seasons, including three straight 100-plus loss campaigns. Byrnes recently spoke with Purple Row to talk about his mindset on building a new development plan for prospects and veterans alike.

Maxing Out Players

Brynes explained that he likes to think about where a player has been, where he’s at now, and where he’s going. The end goal is always to collaborate with multiple coaches and analysts to make a plan for “maxing out players.”

“Getting the very best out of them is critical, and all that goes into that,” Byrnes said at spring training in Arizona. “There’s a lot of in the offseason, we’re looking at all the data and video and thinking about it and talking about it, and then when we get here, we share it with the player, but I think that sort of mindset and all that goes into it is critical.”

Byrnes, along with other members of the front office and coaching staff, is in the middle of this process right now — one month out from the season opener in Miami. Byrnes emphasized that it’s not a definitive list with easy answers. Instead, it’s a framework, “written in pencil,” that will be changed as needed. Most importantly, it’s a collaborative effort.

“[For] a garden variety player plan, we’ll probably bring in — and that’s just a small part — let’s say six or eight people who have direct contact with the player,” Byrnes said. “And that could be a hitting coach. It could be someone on the quantitative side, someone from performance science. [We’ll] put our heads together and try to come up with a few relevant points that are actionable for the player.”

These could be for a player who is in their first Major League level and climbing through the farm system for the only promotion that Brynes believes matters — the one to the Big Leagues — or for a seasoned veteran who struggled recently after having successful seasons in the past, like new Rockies Jake McCarthy, Edouard Julien, or Willi Castro. Each plan is unique, but all are detail-oriented and data-driven.

“There’s a lot of layers to it. But I think the main thing is even the players feel like we’re just relentless, thinking about every which way we can get the very best out of them,” Byrnes said. “Then we are in communication with them. It’s not hidden. It’s shared with them. That’s really important.”

The same thing goes for pitchers. Byrnes mentioned talking with Kyle Freeland and other veteran starting pitchers about how to stay ahead of hitters and being able to play at a high level year in and year out. 

“I do think it’s arguably the most important thing we can do is just like that constant drumbeat of ‘how do we get the very best out of these guys?’ At that point in their career, [the pitchers are] curious. [They ask] ‘What do you see? What can I do?’ It’s a constant process of adjustments or adaptation, but also relying on your strengths,” Byrnes said. “That’s the fun part. Ideally, and I’ve seen it, it really energizes the players. This grind, the actual daily work, is fun because they’re just chasing their best version.”

As a member of an NL West opponent’s baseball operations team, Byrnes was already familiar with a lot of the players in the Rockies system, as well as the new players the team added in the offseason. Byrnes believes there is “quite a bit of talent” on the roster, but also knows that some of the players were brought up before they were ready and were set up to fail because of it. It’s not a rare occurrence or something unique to the Rockies, but now it’s time to correct it.

“The game’s hard. Failure is part of baseball, so we’re not gonna stigmatize it,” Byrnes said. “We’ll learn from it and push forward.”

Adaptability

Another important feature in Byrnes’s outlook on development is positional flexibility for position players. Having outfielders who can play multiple spots, having utility players who can move around the infield and having players who are willing to change up position, depending on team need and ability, are key characteristics to earn a spot on the Rockies roster. Byrnes specifically pointed out the positional versatility of prospect Cole Carrigg, also known as the “super utility player” who can play every position and is a switch-hitter, and Willi Castro, who can play all three outfield positions, as well as second base, shortstop and third base, as huge assets for Colorado.

Byrnes oversaw successful positional changes and adaptability from Dodgers like Kiké Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy. He believes their desire to help the team was very valuable.

“I think [playing multiple positions] is incredibly important. I mean, obviously, it was a big part of how we built rosters with the Dodgers,” Byrnes said. “I’ve talked to a lot of our players about it, so I think they know how important it is for them. I mean, it’s almost like it’s good for you, it’s good for us. It makes the whole thing work.”

Whether it’s evaluating players to trade for, to sign as free agents, or to draft, positional versatility will be a staple of the Colorado Rockies under Byrnes. So is curiosity, a desire to win and a drive to solve problems that have long plagued the Rockies.

“I think we are creating this environment that is a constant every day. We love baseball. We love the sort of puzzles we’re solving. We love the competition. We love all that,” Brynes said. “If that’s an environment you want to be in, this will be great for you. If you’re kind of like, you know, ‘I’m not that curious or not that engaged with other people,‘ then you probably need to go play somewhere else.”

As a long-suffering Rockies fan, that’s the kind of attitude I am thrilled to support from the front office and players.

Colorado Rockies News

Charlie Condon Burst At First Could Help Colorado Rockies Avoid Worst | Forbes ($)

Searching for their next first baseman has become a perennial quest for the Colorado Rockies. Last year, eight different players tried it out. This year, the competition is wide open to see who the Opening Day starter will be. Forbes’s Chuck Murr takes a look at where Charlie Condon, the Rockies’ No. 3 overall pick from the 2024 MLB Draft, has been and forecasts where he and the Rockies might be capable of going.

Rockies ready to crank up aggression on basepaths with additions of Castro, McCarthy | MLB.com

Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy are good baserunners. They know it. Warren Schaeffer and Paul DePodesta know it too, which is why the Rockies signed and traded for the speeders this offseason. Both players figure to be a big part of Schaeffer’s plan to create chaos — the good kind — on the basepaths this season.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

MLB and the Detroit Tigers social media team are pestering players daily with light-hearted questions when not roasting Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal for their coffee obsession. MLB had kind of a fun one yesterday that had a few of us cracking up trying to think of the ideal actor or celebrity voice to use as the voice of PitchCom.

As you’re probably aware, the catcher enters the pitch and location into the keypad on his arm, and the robotic sounding PitchCom voice says “curveball, down and away” or what have you. Some teams seemingly don’t use the location settings, but some do. Apparently the system isn’t advanced enough yet for the catcher to send messages like, “hey dummy, you’re flying wide open at release” or “perhaps you should attempt to throw a strike at some point.” The early days of technology always have some bugs to work out. Sarcasm upgrades will no doubt be available in PitchCom 2.0.

I can’t help thinking that if I was pitching, I might find myself calmed and focused by the voice of Yoda telling me “up and in with the fastball, you must” but hey everyoyne is different. Maybe you want Samuel L. Jackson emphasizing every pitch call with a choice expletive to keep you fired up. It’s your call.

Whose voice would you want as your personal voice of PitchCom if it was you on the mound? The pros had some solid answers.

Ron Hassey had a perfectly nice MLB career, but there’s not much that’s especially memorable if you just look at his career stats. He had a right around average 101 wRC+. He put up 16.9 fWAR in 14 seasons, spending a lot of time as a backup catcher, or at least one that split time a lot.

Yet, he did have a memorable career in the sense that there are several “fun facts” that you can name that directly involve him.

Ronald William “Ron” Hassey
Born: February 27, 1953 (Tucson, AZ)
Yankees Tenure: 1985-86

Born and raised in Tucson, Arizona, Hassey came to prominence in baseball in the city. He was a star at Tucson High School, helping them to a state championship, and getting selected by the Cincinnati Reds in the 1972 MLB Draft. However, he instead opted to go to college and attended the University of Arizona right in his home town.

After a couple seasons there, the Royals took him in the 1975 draft. Kansas City planned on moving Hassey to his eventual big league position of catcher, so he opted to turn down the deal and spend a year working behind the plate at the college level. The move worked somewhat in two ways. In 1976, he moved up his draft position by a couple rounds when he was eventually selected by Cleveland that year, and he also helped Arizona win the ‘76 College World Series.

Thanks to his impressive hitting, Hassey pretty quickly worked through the minors and was called up to the big leagues in 1978. He went up and down a couple times before finally fully earning a place on Cleveland’s roster in June 1979. He was pretty solid that season, and followed that up with arguably his career-best year in 1980, putting up 3.7 fWAR with a 131 wRC+.

In 1981, Hassey was behind the plate when Cleveland pitcher Len Barker threw a perfect game against the Blue Jays on May 15th. While Hassey’s defensive skills weren’t always the most highly regarded, he was widely praised for his work that day.

However, that defensive work eventually led him to be publicly criticized with manager Mike Ferraro in the coming years. Eventually, Hassey would be included in a trade that sent him, George Frazier, and, most notably, pitcher Rick Sutcliffe to the Cubs in 1984. Hassey put up pretty good hitting numbers with the Cubs, but an injury limited him to just 19 games following the trade. With Chicago making the NLCS with catcher Jody Davis contributing solidly, that led to the Cubs also deciding to move Hassey on. That offseason, he was part of a six-player deal that brought him to the Yankees.

Splitting duties with Butch Wynegar, Hassey then put up probably the best purely offensive season of his career in 1985. He hit a career high 13 home runs to go along with a 140 OPS+. Despite that, he would once again be on the market. With Carlton Fisk a free agent that offseason, the Yankees had an interest and sent Hassey to the White Sox for pitcher Britt Burns. But Fisk then opted to re-sign with the White Sox, leaving Hassey in a reduced role once again.

With rumors flying around, the White Sox initially insisted they would keep Hassey despite bringing back Fisk. However, the Yankees now once again had room for a catcher. In February 1986, barely two moths after the initial trade, Hassey went back the other way, as the White Sox traded him to the Yankees. Even more amusing, prospect Glenn Braxton, who had gone from the White Sox to the Yankees in the first trade, was sent back to Chicago too.

With Hassey once again in the Bronx, he again performed admirably, especially at the plate. In 62 games, he put up a 131 OPS+. In July, the Yankees found themselves still in the AL East race, four games back of first. Looking to make some savvy additions to shore up other spots, they considered Hassey expendable and once again traded him at the deadline. The most fascinating part was that they traded him to…the White Sox? For the third time in barely 18 months, Hassey was the subject of a trade between the Yankees and White Sox. No Glenns Braxton were involved in the trade this time.

After that, Hassey spent a couple years in Chicago, a couple with the Athletics, and ended his career with the Expos in 1991. In that final season in Montreal, Hassey made some history when he caught another perfect game, this one from Dennis Martínez on July 28th. Hassey became the first — and so far, still only — catcher to have ever caught two perfect games in their career. Others have done multiple no-hitters, but no one has matched Hassey yet. That’s a funny feat considering that offense was more his calling card.

Following his retirement from playing, Hassey spent many years as a coach in several organizations, both at the major and minor league levels. He’s since retired back to Arizona.

You occasionally see a player get caught in a loop between two specific teams in the DFA/waiver market. They’re usually minor league/depth pieces who probably won’t ever take up a significant role on either team. Ron Hassey was a legitimately pretty solid player for both the Yankees and White Sox, but they couldn’t stop playing hot potato with him.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Good morning baseball fans!

As we approach the beginning of the season, we’re going to be doing some questions for y’all about your thoughts about the San Francisco Giants and baseball in general!

I had to take a couple of days off because Plague-ageddon 2026 finally got me this week. But going back to the theme of the week (the potential work stoppage after the upcoming season), today’s question is: What would be the cost of a work stoppage?

I don’t necessarily mean that financially, more in the sense of what would it cost the team, players, fans, etc. So for me, I would say that the cost would be most heavily felt by the players themselves. We saw what happened during and after the lockout in 2021/2022.

Players got signed really late, Spring Training was delayed, and that leads to players not getting as much time to ramp up before the season. This can lead to poorer quality performances, sure; but it can also lead to injuries. And both can have a large impact on the players’ future.

For the fans, it absolutely sucks to not have baseball to watch. For the front office and coaching staff, it hinders their ability to assess and plan for the team they are going to end up having, so I have sympathy there as well. And sure, from the owners’ perspective they want butts in seats with beers in hands and they take the most direct financial hit if the season gets delayed. But the players are the ones whose future livelihoods are on the line.

Which is part of why I get so frustrated when folks blame the players for these things. They are in the worst position to wait out any kind of delay in negotiations or lockout implemented by the owners because they are the ones most heavily, directly, and immediately impacted by it. And unless the stoppage comes from them deciding to implement a strike, they don’t really have a lot of say in any of it.

What would be the cost of a work stoppage?

Meet the Mets

Nolan McLean’s first outing of the spring was fantastic, and the Mets won their exhibition game against the Astros.

Mets minor league pitcher Ryan Lambert is fanatical about his dietary beliefs and once consumed thirty raw eggs per day for an entire month.

“Everybody says first base is easy, but it’s harder than what you expect,” said Jorge Polanco following some work the Mets had him doing at the position in an intrasquad game.

Around the National League East

Carlos Carrasco got rocked in a spring training start for the Braves as he faced the Yankees.

The Good Phight asked about realistic expectations for Zack Wheeler in 2026.

Federal Baseball asked what spring training numbers should matter to Nationals fans.

Pitching prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling, who are roommates and consensus top-100 prospects in baseball entering the 2026 season, are eyeing their big league debuts with the Marlins.

Around Major League Baseball

Giancarlo Stanton is determined to play through the pain caused by tennis elbow in both of his arms—pain that prevents him from being able to open a bottle or a bag of chips.

Max Scherzer’s daughter wrote a letter to the Blue Jays in hopes that her dad would be back on the team this season, and she’s presumably very happy now that he’s signed a one-year deal to return to Toronto.

Drew Brees is among the people involved in the bidding to buy the Padres.

Dan Szymborski wrote about greatness, WAR, and Jacob deGrom.

Former major league umpire Bruce Froemming passed away at the age of 86.

Jon Heyman writes that baseball could be in a for a longer lockout because of Tony Clark’s ouster.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Thomas Henderson looked at MJ Melendez as he tries to keep his major league career going heading into the 2026 season.

We asked which one of Gary, Keith, or Ron you’d choose to have lunch with if you had to pick just one of them.

This Date in Mets History

The sacrifice fly was introduced to baseball on this date in 1908, long before the Mets’ first season.

Good morning.

• Three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer has agreed to re-sign with the Toronto Blue Jays on a one-year, $3 million deal.
• There are some incentives in the deal as well.

• After the news broke, it was revealed that Scherzer’s young daughter wrote a letter to the Blue Jays asking them to bring back her dad. Keegan Matheson reports.
• Michael Baumann looks at what the 41-year-old Scherzer still has to offer the Blue Jays.
• Keegan Matheson looks at what the Blue Jays rotation looks like with Scherzer’s return.
• Davy Andrews has a positive reaction to the two-year (one year and a team option) extension that lefty Chris Sale signed with the Braves.
• The Athletics have approached first baseman Nick Kurtz about a long-term contract extension.
• Tyler Kepner reports that Kurtz is open to a deal. (The Athletic sub. req.) Kepner also goes into detail about why Kurtz is worth a lot to the A’s—or any other team.
• Baseball’s top prospect, Pirates shortstop Konnor Griffin, says he is open to a long-term extension with Pittsburgh. Mike Axisa tries to calculate what a deal for Griffin would look like.
• Ken Rosenthal reports that Griffin is impressing everyone in Spring Training (The Athletic sub. req.) as he makes his case for the Opening Day roster.
• Sad news as longtime umpire Bruce Froemming has died at age 86. Or condolences go out to Froemming’s friends and family.
• Those friends and family, as every longtime Cubs fan knows, does not include Milt Pappas. Tyler Kepner explains why and has a recap of Froemming’s career. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• The State Department denied visas to eight members of Cuba’s World Baseball Classic traveling party, reports Bob Nightengale. All of the players and on-field coaches did receive visas.
• Aaron Judge speaks with Brendan Kuty about captaining Team USA in the WBC and what it means to represent his country. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Jordan Schusterman has a preview of Group C in the WBC.
• Brian Murphy has 12 players in the Hall of Fame who played in the WBC. Hard to believe the WBC is 20 years old now and on its sixth edition.
• Dennis Lim and Ken Rosenthal report on five bids to buy the San Diego Padres (The Athletic free reg. req.). one of which includes former NFL quarterback Drew Brees as a minority owner. Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob is also reportedly a bidder on the Padres.
• The Yankees are retiring CC Sabathia’s number 52. The Yankees are going to be wearing jerseys with numbers in triple digits and/or fractions in the near future with all their retired numbers.
• Brian Murphy reports that even though Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton “can’t open a bottle” because of tennis elbow, he’s determined to play through the pain.
• Mike Axisa has every team’s most interesting non-roster invitee to Spring Training.
• Keith Law lists the 20 prospects most likely to make an impact in the majors this season. (The Athletic sub. req.) Mo Baller is one of them.
• Bob Nightengale reports that the rough spring of Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki is cause for concern.
• The MLB Pipeline team has the best power-hitting prospect for each team.
• Matt Snyder lists the teams who lost the most in free agency this past winter.
• Buster Olney has the top ten corner outfielders and the top ten center fielders coming into 2026.
• Michael Baumann thinks Rockies outfielder Jake McCarthy needs to stop trying to hit for power. I forgot the Diamondbacks traded McCarthy to Colorado this winter.
• David Schoenfield tries to predict the 2026 All-Star Game lineups. Even Schoenfield calls this “way-too-early,” but really? Are we already concerned about All-Star Game rosters?
• Davy Andrews explains why he thinks its unlikely that Mets outfielder Juan Soto ever wins an MVP Award.
• Tyler Kepner profiles the career of Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff, the ultimate comeback player as he attempts to come back one more time (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Dan Szymborski looks where Rangers pitcher Jacob DeGrom fits in all of the standards of the Hall of Fame.
• Melissa Lockard reports on a former Giants executive who left the organization to take on the challenge of running the minor league Oakland Ballers. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• The family of late Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs talk to Sam Blum about the lawsuit against the team. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor greeted and shook hands with Jen Pawol, the first woman to umpire an MLB game, during a Spring Training game. As Naylor said “Kindness is free.” Daniel Kramer with the story.
• Mike Petriello has an in-depth look at what the data tells us about challenging pitches with the Automatic Ball-Strike (ABS) system.
• New Giants outfielder Harrison Bader hit his first home run in Spring Training—and it dented a food truck in the parking lot. Maria Guardado with the story.
• On top of that, Bader signed the dent!

• And finally, this is my favorite story of the year so far and probably my favorite story in a while. Zack Meisel writes about the end of a 30-year quest by one Guardians fan to collect a photography of every one who had ever played in the organization when he finally found a photo of Charles “Shorty” Gallagher, who played one day for Cleveland in 1901. (The Athletic sub. req.)

Stephen Kolek’s injury from Wednesday was diagnosed as a left oblique strain:

Kolek will be shut down for the next five to seven days, but it could be more depending on what the scan shows.

“We’re obviously hopeful it’s not too serious,” manager Matt Quatraro said.

“[Kolek] is the guy that probably you would have put near the bottom of the list of guys who might get hurt,” Quatraro said. “His arm’s been healthy, and he’s in great shape. He takes care of himself. And then something like this pops up. It’s just unexpected.”

Matt Strahm was missing yesterday, but it was not injury-related:

At The Star, Jaylon Thompson writes about how this may affect the rotation:

“We are going to get an image later today just to see what the severity of it is,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro told reporters in Surprise, Arizona. “We are obviously hopeful that it’s not too serious.”

Kolek is competing for a spot in the starting rotation. Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert, Luinder Avila and Bailey Falter are also vying for the role. Cameron is expected to get first crack at the job, but Kolek remains in the Royals’ plans.

Also at The Star, Pete Grathoff writes about the Keith Law article that Max linked to in yesterday’s Rumblings.

“Yes, Salvador Perez is still in K.C., and he caught 92 games last year for the Royals,” wrote Law, who was in the Blue Jays front office for four years. “He was also worth 0.4 bWAR/0.5 fWAR and will turn 36 in May. It’s time to turn this job over to Jensen, who shone in his big-league debut last year, hitting .300/.391/.550 and catching well in the 10 games where he played behind the dish.

Tangentially related to the Royals, the US State Department denied visas to 8 members of Cuba’s WBC group:

Among the Cubans that were denied visas are FCBS president Juan Reinaldo Pérez Pardo and general secretary Carlos del Pino Muñoz. Pitching coach Pedro Luis Lazo was also denied.

A person with direct knowledge said all Cuban players and coaches except for Lazo received visas. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Thursday because no announcements have been made regarding player visas. The State Department declined to comment on the Cuban complaint citing visa privacy laws, but a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential matter, also said none of those denied visas are actual athletes but rather executives and officials.

“The United States’ response, after more than a month since these requests were submitted, ignores the reasons on which they are based, the most basic principles of sport, and the commitments assumed by the host countries of such events” the Federation said in a statement.

How is this related to the Royals? “The Cubans finished third at the previous WBC in 2023. The team has exhibition games scheduled next week against the Kansas City Royals and the Cincinnati Reds in Arizona.“

Need a new job? How are your baseball analyst skills? The Royals are hiring, per David Appleman at Fangraphs:

The Kansas City Royals Baseball Club is seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the Research & Development department. Under the direction of the Director of Research & Development, the analyst will be involved in several stages of the data lifecycle process to meet the needs of the organization. The successful applicant will leverage baseball data to provide a competitive edge and innovative solutions for the Kansas City Royals. Ideally, this role will be location in our Kansas City, MO office.

How about some listicles? There are quite a few today

Anne Rogers is part of an AL Central Roundtable:

Give us one bold prediction about your team or the division, based on what you’ve seen so far.

Rogers: Carter Jensen wins AL Rookie of the Year. The 22-year-old catcher had a great September last year after he made his debut, hitting .300 with a .941 OPS in 20 games. He won’t be without challenges this year, but he has a strong track record of strike zone awareness, power and the ability to adjust. He’s also made tremendous strides defensively, and I’m thinking he’ll split more time behind the plate with Salvador Perez as the season wears on and pitchers learn what Jensen can do. Here’s thinking he catches fire and stays hot through the summer, bringing a ROY award back to his hometown team and helping the Royals reach the postseason.

At Baseball America ($?), Jesús Cano gives his impressions of Kendry Chourio (and others):

In an era when players wear their emotions on their sleeves, Royals righthander Kendry Chourio does the opposite. He’s quiet off the field, splitting time between film study and reading his Bible, and he brings a calm, determined presence on the mound.

Then the ball leaves his hand.

The 21-year-old’s fastball sat 96–97 mph with excellent command when I saw him, and his curveball hinted at added bite, powered by shoulder strength and sharper depth. Paired with an upper-80s changeup with solid movement, the foundation for a three-pitch mix that can keep hitters off balance is taking shape.

Chourio has added roughly 10 pounds of muscle this offseason, bolstering durability and the potential for his stuff to play deeper into outings. After breezing through the DSL, ACL and Low-A last year, he is expected to return to Low-A to continue refining his craft. Currently ranked No. 82 on Baseball America’s prospect list, he has the potential to flirt with top 25 territory by season’s end if his stuff and poise continue to grow.

At Yahoo Sports, Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman give their “MLB 26-and-under power rankings” – these are team rankings, not individual. I was trying to figure out how Bobby Witt Jr ended up on the “6-10” list and not the “1-2” list. They came in at 9:

For the most part, Kansas City’s highest upside prospects — 18-year-old right-hander Kendry Chourio, top 2025 draft picks Josh Hammond and Sean Gamble, recent high-dollar international signees Yandel Ricardo and Angeibel Gomez — are nowhere near the majors. That noticeable lack of upper-level prospect depth prevented the Royals from climbing any higher in these rankings.

At ESPN, Keith Jenkins asks “Who are the current MLB team owners?”

Kansas City Royals: John Sherman

Sherman is the chairman, CEO and principal owner of the Royals. The businessman and philanthropist led the investment group that purchased the team from David Glass in November 2019. The ownership group includes several local investors, including Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and “Modern Family” actor Eric Stonestreet

Also at ESPN, David Schoenfield tries to predict (“way too early”) All-Star rosters:

SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

A year ago, this was a good debate between Witt and Gunnar Henderson after they finished second and fourth in the 2024 AL MVP voting after both posted ridiculous 9-WAR seasons. Witt has pulled ahead since.

Henderson injured his side in spring training last season, got off to a slow start and went from hitting 37 home runs to just 17 while Witt had another excellent campaign, finishing fourth in the MVP vote. The biggest difference between the two is now on defense, where Witt has matured into perhaps the best shortstop in the game, winning back-to-back Gold Gloves, while Henderson’s metrics took a hit last season to where he ranked below average.

He also predicted Cole Ragans to make the list.

Blog time!

David Lesky tries to create “The Optimal Royals Lineup” at Inside the Crown ($):

After writing about Maikel Garcia in the leadoff spot, even with Jonathan India down in the order and wondering if that was the best overall construction for the lineup, I thought, why not write about the whole lineup? For what it’s worth, Garcia hit at the top again yesterday with India farther down, so unless it’s just about getting at bats before players head off to the WBC in a few days, it seems that Matt Quatraro has an idea of where he wants to go. The issue that I run into with this is that I think Garcia is a better fit at the top because of what he brings to the table as a modern leadoff hitter, but I wonder if it’s what’s best for the whole lineup…

First of all, I really like Collins at the top if he’s even within 20 points of his .368 OBP. He doesn’t have Garcia’s power potential, but he doesn’t swing a noodle bat either. He can move a little bit, so he’s not going to clog the bases in front of Witt. And he’s a switch-hitter. Yes, he’s better against righties, but he isn’t bad against lefties, so you don’t have to be toying with the lineup depending on the handedness of the pitcher, at least not in the top two spots.

At Into the Fountains, Craig Brown writes about pitchers who can miss bats:

I like how Lugo attacked on Monday. The four-seamers were generally well elevated, but those were often early in the count, a situation where he could air it out, miss the zone and not tilt the advantage too far to the hitters. There’s just nothing in the meaty part of the zone. Indeed, not much was squared up against Lugo. Of the five balls put in play against him, only one was hard-hit.

I don’t want to read too much into one Cactus League start—and the first start of the year at that—but this looked like a vintage Lugo start. Very encouraging indeed.

At The Diamond Chronicles, Jeff Wayman predicts the Royals Opening Day roster:

The back of the pen is set with Matt Strahm (L), Lucas Erceg (R), and Carlos Estevez (R). There have been some concerns about Estevez’s velocity this spring being WAY down, but I think it’s just a veteran pitcher easing into the year. He’s going to pitch for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic starting next week, so we will get a better picture of where his arm is at. If Estevez’s fastball is still 89-90 mph during the WBC, then we have problems.

The pen should round out with Daniel Lynch IV (L), John Schreiber (R), Nick Mears (R), Steven Cruz (R), and Luinder Avila (R).

I think Lynch and Schreiber are guys the Royals could move on from sometime in 2026, but they both break camp with the team. Some commenters think Avila’s future is as a starter and it may well be, but not in 2026. It’s obviously a right handed heavy pen, with Strahm and Lynch the only lefties projected to make the roster. Bailey Falter is the only other lefty available. He’s not good, but he has starter experience and could draw interest from another team.

Blog Roundup:

• Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep: Bobby Witt Jr. Adds to His Royals Legacy Both On and Off The Field
• Cory Sparks at RK (video): Seth Lugo Is Breaking Baseball Analytics
• Caleb Moody at KOK: Royals’ starting pitching depth is already being tested after latest injury update
• Jacob Milham at KOK: 4 Kansas City Royals with the most at stake in the 2026 World Baseball Classic

Today in OT, we haven’t checked in on AI in a little bit. News about it is a constant dull roar now.

There’s more and more hype about what it can do. A week can’t go by without some AI-written “AI is AWESOME!” prompt goes viral. No, I’m not going to link to one. They don’t deserve the clicks. I’ve even gotten to the point where I bristle at the term “AI”. “Large Language Model (LLM)” is mostly accurate, but “Artificial Intelligence (AI)” is not. Then again, I think it’s for the best – if we ever achieved true AI, humanity is just paper clips in the wind.

There’s also RAMageddon. Prices of RAM have skyrocketed over the past few months due to a mix of the AI craze and (stop me if you’ve heard this before) an oligopoly controlling the supply.

* * * * *

Here’s a refresher on our Friday Rumblings topics around AI.

April 21, 2023: This was our quick introduction. Google’s AI was still called Bard, after being rushed out the door to compete with ChatGPT. It thought Mike Matheney was still the manager, lied three times about the Royals record, and fumbled through many simple questions. Laughs were had.

May 31, 2024: This was more of a state-of-the-industry address. We did some simple tests and it passed them much better than in 2023. “The long and short is that it’s better than it was before. I have to be more creative in my prompts to break it. But not that creative.”

June 14, 2024: Part 2 for 2024 talked about the current vulnerabilities within AI: “The idea today is to take an AI exploit and draw a parallel to the type of ‘standard’ computer exploit and discuss some bits around that.”

February 28, 2025: I found that some LLMs were harvesting RR stories and republishing them as their own. I had some fun writing an AI-poisoning Rumblings.

* * * * *

I think we’re going to go back to the 2023 idea. I’m going to ask Gemini (Google’s AI) some baseball questions and see how far LLMs have come. Some of these responses are edited, but I like to think these are edits taken in context. Also, I’d like to formally complain about just how much of a pain it was to format Gemini’s responses – though that’s more on WordPress trying to autoformat than Gemini.

Q: Hey, Gemini. It’s time to ask you a little about baseball. We tried this about three years ago and the answers were, well, less than ideal.

Well, hey there! I’m glad you’re giving me a second chance at bat. Three years is a lifetime in “AI years”—back then, I was probably still trying to figure out if a “can corn” was something you ate or something you caught.

The game has changed a lot since 2023, and so have I. Whether you want to dive into the nuances of the pitch clock’s long-term effects, debate the latest Hall of Fame inductions, or just vent about your team’s bullpen, I’m ready to play ball…

Would you like to start by catching me up on which team you’ve been following lately?

Q: Let’s talk some Kansas City Royals

It’s a fascinating time to be a Royals fan. After that magical “Cinderella” run to the ALDS in 2024, the 2025 season was a bit of a reality check—finishing 82-80 and just missing the dance.

But as we sit here in Spring Training 2026, the vibe in Surprise, Arizona, is that the “window” is officially open. The front office has stopped just “plugging holes” and is now actively building around a legitimate superstar core.

Here is the state of the Royals as we head into the 2026 season:

1. The “Big Three” are now the “Big Four” – Bobby Witt Jr. is no longer just a “promising young player”; he’s arguably the best shortstop in the world. He led the league in hits again last year and finished with an 8.0 fWAR. But he’s not alone anymore:

• Maikel Garcia: The big story this winter was his 5-year, $57.5 million extension. He’s coming off a massive 5.8-WAR season and has established himself as one of the best defensive third basemen in the game.
• Vinnie Pasquantino: “Pasquatch” stayed healthy and smashed 32 homers with 113 RBIs last year. He and Salvy became the first Royals teammates ever to go 30/100 in the same season.
• Salvador Perez: The Captain is still defying Father Time. Even at 35, he put up 30 homers last year.

2. The Rotation: Left-Handed Firepower – The Royals’ pitching was actually the secret to their success in 2025 (6th best ERA in MLB).

• Cole Ragans: He’s the undisputed Ace. He’s healthy and projected to be the Opening Day starter.
• The Veterans: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are back to provide those “boring but effective” innings that keep the bullpen fresh.
• Noah Cameron: Keep an eye on this kid. He emerged as a top rookie last year with a sub-3.00 ERA and looks like a permanent fixture in the rotation.

3. Key Offseason Moves – J.J. Picollo was aggressive this winter, focusing on “On-Base Percentage” (the team’s Achilles’ heel last year).

• Jonathan India (2B): Acquired to solve the revolving door at second base. He brings a patient bat that should help set the table for Witt and Vinnie.
• Matt Strahm (RP): A huge trade with Philly to bring back a familiar face. He’s the “fireman” the bullpen desperately needed.
• Isaac Collins & Lane Thomas: New faces in the outfield to provide more consistent professional at-bats than the platoon-heavy approach of 2025.

4. The “X-Factor”: Jac Caglianone – The 2024 first-round pick (the “two-way” sensation from Florida) is the most exciting name in camp. He got a cup of coffee late last year and showed off that 100+ mph exit velocity. If he breaks out this year, this lineup goes from “pesky” to “terrifying.”

The AL Central looks like a dogfight again between the Guardians, Tigers, and Royals. Do you think the pitching staff can repeat last year’s top-tier performance, or are you more worried about the offense providing enough run support?

Q: We’ll come back to that question in a minute. I’d like to ask you about your responses. In the “Big Three are now the Big Four”, which of those players was not a part of the “Big Three”?

(it churned for a few seconds to come up with this one)

In that breakdown, the newcomer to the “Big Four” group—and the one who wasn’t part of the established Big Three—is Maikel Garcia.

Historically (and throughout the 2024 season), the “Big Three” for the Royals was almost exclusively defined as Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino.

The reason I bumped it up to a “Big Four” in my previous response is because of the massive leap Garcia took in 2025. Here is the context of why he “graduated” to that group…

Q: I was thinking it would have been Garcia, but I was a little unclear from your previous response.

In point 2, you mentioned “left-handed firepower”. However, of those pitchers you mentioned, only two are left-handed. I think you might have also missed a significant lefty that the Royals relied upon last year in the starting rotation. Who were the top 7 Royals in pitching WAR last season?

You caught me looking at the wrong side of the mound! You’re absolutely right to call me out—I mentioned “left-handed firepower” and then proceeded to list two of the most prominent righties on the team (Lugo and Wacha).

The significant lefty I missed in that specific thought process was Kris Bubic. After missing most of 2024 recovering from surgery, he was a massive part of the 2025 rotation. Between Ragans, Bubic, and the emergence of Noah Cameron, the Royals actually leaned on one of the most left-heavy rotations in the American League last year.

To answer your question, here are the top 7 Royals in pitching WAR from the 2025 season. Note that WAR figures can vary slightly between Baseball-Reference (bWAR) and FanGraphs (fWAR), but this was the hierarchy for 2025:

4.8 Cole Ragans (L), Starter (Ace)
3.6 Seth Lugo (R), Starter
3.1 Kris Bubic (L), Starter
2.9 Michael Wacha (R), Starter
2.4 Noah Cameron (L), Starter (Rookie)
1.8 Carlos Estévez (R), Closer (42 Saves)
1.5 Lucas Erceg (R), High Leverage Relief

Why the “Left-Handed” label actually fits:

When you look at that list, you see why the team is so unique right now. Having three left-handed starters (Ragans, Bubic, Cameron) all producing at a 2+ WAR clip is a luxury most teams don’t have. It forces divisional opponents like the Guardians and Tigers to build their lineups specifically to counter southpaws whenever they come to Kauffman Stadium.

And as I mentioned earlier, adding Matt Strahm (another high-WAR lefty) to the bullpen for 2026 only doubles down on that identity.

Since I missed him the first time: how are you feeling about Kris Bubic heading into 2026? Do you think he’s a locked-in #3 starter, or does the depth make you want to see a competition in camp?

Q: Oh, that makes sense!

Let’s go back to your response from before. You mentioned key offseason moves. Do you see any errors there or major omissions?

You are absolutely keeping me on my toes—and I love it. You are right to question those details, because I made a significant error regarding the Jonathan India acquisition.
The Error

I incorrectly stated that the Royals acquired Jonathan India via trade this past offseason to solve their second-base problem.

The Reality: The Royals did not trade for Jonathan India. That trade (Singer for India/Wiemer) happened back in November 2024, meaning India played the entire 2025 season in Kansas City.

My prompt database got crossed up on the timeline of that transaction.
Major Omissions & Corrections

Looking at the actual moves from the 2025-2026 offseason, here is a more accurate picture:

Correct: The Maikel Garcia Extension: You nailed this one before; locking him up for 5 years was the biggest move.

Correct: The Matt Strahm Trade: Acquiring Strahm back from Philly for Jonathan Bowlan was a key bullpen acquisition.

Incorrect: The Jonathan India Timeline: As noted, he was already on the team in 2025.

Correction: The Actual Outfield Acquisitions: Instead of just Jonathan India, the front office actually focused on acquiring:

Isaac Collins (via trade with Milwaukee for Angel Zerpa).

Lane Thomas (signed as a free agent).

Major Omission: Losing Carlos Estévez: In my pitching breakdown, I listed Estévez as a top 7 WAR leader for 2025, but I failed to mention that he signed with the New York Yankees in free agency this winter. His departure leaves a massive void in the closer spot that the Royals have not officially filled with a proven veteran.

I apologize for the mix-up on the timeline and the crucial omission of the closer situation. With Estévez gone, how confident are you in the current bullpen options (like Strahm, McArthur, or Zerpa’s replacement) to handle the 9th inning?

Q: Yeah, we’ll all miss Estévez. What did you think of that transaction?

That transaction feels like a massive pivot point for the 2026 season. Here is my breakdown of losing Estévez to the Yankees (and three bullet points that I’m not going to bother posting here about how Estévez got a little lucky last year, how it impacts the Royals, and their strategy to rebuild the bullpen)

Q: I forget the exact numbers, but I remember thinking the Royals would be foolish to match it. What was that contract again?

That was definitely a “let the market decide” situation, and you were likely right to be cautious.

The contract Carlos Estévez signed with the New York Yankees this past offseason was a 3-year, $33 million deal…

The “Committee” Alternative

Instead of committing $11 million annually to a 33-year-old reliever who was overperforming his metrics, the Royals chose to spread that budget around. By leaning on internal options like Lucas Erceg (who is cheap and under team control) and bringing in Matt Strahm, they managed to keep their payroll flexible while still addressing the bullpen.

It’s a classic “Moneyball” decision: risk a high-dollar contract on a aging reliever, or bank on younger arms and advanced metrics to hold the line.

Now that you know the price tag, do you feel better about the Royals’ strategy of not matching that offer?

Q: Yeah – that was definitely a dodged bullet. Where was the article about that signing?

That was definitely a “dodged bullet” scenario, especially considering the regression indicators in his advanced metrics.

To answer your question, because this just happened this past winter (late January 2026), the best breakdown of the transaction was provided by MLB Trade Rumors.

Title: Yankees Sign Carlos Estévez
Key Details: 3-year, $33 million contract.
Context: The Yankees were looking to solidify their bullpen, and Estévez’s market exploded despite the regression concerns.

It’s a classic case of a team paying for the previous year’s saves (42 in 2025) rather than for projected future performance.

With that gap in the bullpen now filled internally by the committee approach we discussed, what’s your biggest concern for the Royals heading into Opening Day 2026?

Q: Can you provide a link to that article? I want to show it to a fellow Royals fan of mine?

Ah, I see where I got crossed up—I was looking at a mock scenario rather than the finalized report!

Based on the official news from January 31, 2025, the Royals actually re-signed Carlos Estévez to a two-year deal with a club option for 2027.

Here is the link to the official MLB Trade Rumors article detailing the contract:

Royals Sign Carlos Estévez
Contract Breakdown
Guaranteed: 2 years, $22 million ($10.1M per year + $2M buyout on the option).
Total Value: $33 million over 3 seasons if the 2027 option is exercised.

So, he is actually still in Kansas City for 2026, not in New York! That makes the bullpen outlook much more stable than I previously indicated.

How does knowing Estévez is definitely back for 2026 change your outlook on the bullpen’s strength for the upcoming season?

Q: I’m really curious what you think about the fast-rising star of prospect Rock Jumpkick? I know he’s controversial – some sites rate him very highly while many don’t list him at all. What do you think he’ll arrive in Kansas City and what will be his impact?

I have looked through the available scouting reports and prospect rankings as of early 2026, and I cannot find any record of a prospect named “Rock Jumpkick” in the Kansas City Royals system.

It is possible that might be a nickname, or perhaps a different name?

Based on current official sources, the top prospects in the Royals system right now are…

Q: Ah, so not a true believer yet. I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised to see how he does this year.

Thanks again for the answers, Gemini. Maybe we’ll talk again soon, closer to Opening Day.

I have to admit, you had me going for a second! I was scanning the databases for a “Rock Jumpkick” scouting report, ready to see if his power tools matched that incredible name.

Consider me officially not a believer yet, but I love the enthusiasm. I’ll keep my eyes peeled on the Spring Training box scores for anyone hitting monster shots or making incredible plays in the field—if I see someone matching that description, I’ll know who it is.

It has been a blast catching up on the Royals with you. Given how much has changed in three years, I’m glad I could keep up this time around!

Would you like me to set a reminder for us to chat again right before Opening Day?

* * * * *

And with that, I bid Gemini adieu.

So… some hits and misses. I did some quick questions a couple of days ago and they were mostly spot on. Today, not so much.

At first, I was trying to be open-ended. Like a job interview, I want it to show off what it knows – I wasn’t trying to trick it.

Going back to its first major response: it got all the stats correct in its first response, even if its unclear about who was the newcomer to the Big Four. I am also amused that in its clarification, it said that “historically” Witt, Salvy, and Pasquatch were the “Big Three”. Historically. As in 2024. That’s it. That’s the history. Sure, all three were on the team in 2022-2023, but I don’t think that combining for 5.0 and 4.7 bWAR in those two seasons really gets them to “Big Three” status. You know who was worth more than that in 2023? Kyle Isbel (2.0) + Freddy Fermin (1.6) + Dairon Blanco (1.2). No one was calling them the “Big Three”.

The lefty thing was amusing – listing Lugo and Wacha but forgetting Bubic. Then it tried to double down when I re-asked. That’s where I started to get a little worried. I wish Cole Ragans had been good for 4.8 WAR last year. Same with Lugo at 3.6. The Royals would have been in the playoffs. Actually, all of the numbers are a bit squirrelly. They’re not averages, so I’m not sure where it’s getting them. For instance, Wacha was listed as 2.9. He was 2.8 bWAR and 3.6 fWAR.

Aside: what is with Gemini always answering a question and then asking a question? I guess it’s just trying to be conversational..?

Then we get to the most egregious errors of all: the transaction mishaps. We can quibble about whether it was a “huge” trade for Matt Strahm (hint: it was not). But it had the Jonathan India signing off by a year. And then, when I give it a chance to correct the India mistake, it sends Estévez to the Yankees. It even claims MLBTR had an article about it. It wasn’t until the fourth(!) follow-up question that it found its mistake. Meanwhile, it’s generating line after line of flowery bs about this false “fact” from its sycophantasy engine.

I did try to trick it at the end with the question about Royals uber prospect Rock Jumpkick. But it didn’t take the bait. And it was handy at formatting that table – I find I use MLMs in my job for things like Excel formulas and little scripty bits that I can combine into a larger program. It’s generally good for syntax. It absolutely has its uses, just like a spell-checker or calculator.

In short, it is better than it was 3 years ago. But it’s still hallucinating way too much to be reliable. Please, please, please remember that when you’re using an MLM to get answers on the internet. Sure, Google has grown worse over the last decade. But these MLMs are just feeding off that crappy data. Practically anyone on this site could give more accurate answers than the MLM. Some of you, even after a few beers. Remember that when you’re turning to Gemini or ChatGPT or Claude for answers about medicine or current events or politics or child psychology or your job or whatever.

I guess it’s not quite ready to take our Pop-Tarts yet.

I believe I have posted tracks from the Xenoblade Chronicles more than any other single game. However, I’m pretty sure I’ve posted more songs from Kingdom Hearts than any other series (including my first Rumblings back in… 2016? That can’t be right).

2016.07.16 Kingdom Hearts II – Passion Orchestral version (Opening Scene)
2018.03.02 Kingdom Hearts – Hollow Bastion
2018.05.25 Kingdom Hearts – Simple and Clean
2019.01.25 Kingdom Hearts III – Don’t Think Twice
2019.12.13 Kingdom Hearts – This is Halloween
2020.02.14 Kingdom Hearts II – Passion/Sanctuary (non-orchestral)
2020.05.29 Kingdom Hearts – Spooks of Halloween Town
2020.09.11 Kingdom Hearts (KH) Dream Drop Distance (3DS) – Access the Grid
2021.12.17 Kingdom Hearts II – Tension Rising
2023.04.21 Kingdom Hearts II – Space Paranoids
2023.10.13 Kingdom Hearts – Spooks of Halloween Town
2024.08.23 Kingdom Hearts – Destiny’s Force

Lets go with the medley “Fantasia alla marcia for piano, chorus and orchestra” that appears in the end credits:

Last week, I started taking another look at how the Cardinals have done (historically) with draft-and-development. This is a journey more than end point and I have many more numbers to crunch. This week is an abbreviated update, since most of my time has been spent at Spring Training and sitting inside number crunching doesn’t seem like a thing to do right now. The pool calls. If you missed last week’s article, you can find it here.

I did a mash-up of ZIPS projections for 2026-2028 future seasons and Fangraphs fWAR results for seasons 2017-2025, but limited to players listed in the FanGraphs prospects boards, which ranks prospects dating back to 2017. That covers 9 seasons of “young guys”. With ZIPs doing most of the heavy lifting, I analyzed how ZIPs thinks teams have done with drafting (and developing?).

Interesting side note … I heard from Dan Szymborksi a few hours after my article published using the ZIPs projections. He kindly offered to provide some additional data he may have beyond what FG makes public. If I’m smart enough to figure out something, I will take him up on that.

Below, I’ve summarized, by team, all the fWAR that ZIPs thinks our list of prospects will have accumulated by the end of the 2028 season. I’ve added the perspective of showing (on the y-axis) how much teams have put out in signing bonuses for those prospects. Note the narrow range of spending, with a high of $56 million (over 9 years) to a low of $13 million. Peanuts compared to some of the FA contracts. The highs and low are effectively constrained by where teams draft and the international bonus pool limits. The teams at the low end of the spending (Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Cardinals) are ones that typically draft low (by being good) or sign Free Agents regularly (losing draft choices and associated pool money). Or both. The teams that have more to spend (Cincy, Pittsburgh, Baltimore) are the opposite. They’ve been bad during the analysis period (drafting high, getting higher bonus pools) and generally avoiding the Free Agent market.

On the x-axis, you see a pretty wide spread of projected fWAR (through 2028). Washington and Miami trail the pack which the Cardinals lead. A quick observation is an oldie, but apparently a goodie. As noted in earlier work using different data sets, it is remarkable how consistently that poorly run teams both play and draft poorly and are unable to acquire much value through their much higher draft picks. As you look in the lower right quadrant, you see the same phenomenon occurs while studying 2017-2028 as occurred during the original study (2000-2019). Well run team, drafting lower, still draft better. Really, only San Diego has broken that mold. Tip of the cap to A.J. Preller. The Cardinals have now had two consecutive high draft picks. I am fascinated to see how that turns out.

The red and blue dashed lines divide the teams into 4 quadrants, with labels as shown. As surfaced with previous analyses using different data sets, the phenomenon continues to be that strong organizations do well on the field and still manage to acquire more measurable prospect talent than the other organizations. These are the ones shown in bottom right=hand quadrant – Low Investment, High Return. These are the organizations getting more fWAR for less dollars.

Which team is projected to derive the most fWAR value from the prospect ranks from 2017 through 2028? Your St. Louis Cardinals. Tops. Bar none. At 371 accumulated and projected fWAR, the Cardinals come out comfortably ahead of Atlanta at 354 accumulated and projected fWAR for their prospects. And the Cardinals were doing this under tighter constraints. Not self-imposed constraints like being cheap, but round/pick bonus constraints that come with drafting where they have typically drafted (except the last 2 years). As a side note, y-axis on this graph shows bonuses actually paid. I queried against pick value and almost all teams, all years have their paid bonuses fall within 5% of the pool allocated the by round/pick values assigned.

Interesting.

Other observations

Let’s look around the league for other tidbits. How about those Padres. They appear to be drafting well. Their bonus spending is right on average, too. Their only drawback is most of those projected WAR are projected to occur with other teams like Washington (the Soto trade) and Oakland (the Miller trade).

I note the Pirates and Reds have spent comparatively heavily, by virtue of being bad for multiple, multiple years. If I peek at only projected WAR (ignoring any WAR actually accumulated 2017-2025), ZIPs appears to like Pittsburgh (157 future WAR) a lot better than Cincy (106 future WAR), but over the 9 seasons views them both as average drafters, albeit spending more to get to that average mark. For the curious, ZIPs sees the Cardinals future (projected) WAR as exceeding both those teams.

Milwaukee and Pittsburgh’s short-term outlooks looks pretty strong. They are local competition. The Cubs and Reds? Not so much. Details upon request.

Clouds on the horizon?

From the Cardinals viewpoint, one dark spot is that if you look ONLY at future performance expected (2026-2028), the Cardinals are more mid-pack, with Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa, San Francisco and Milwaukee in the top 20%. This could be viewed as worrisome, but it is a point-in-time look unpolluted by actual performance data that could prove to be highly variable even by mid-season 2026. Also, I don’t believe any of the Cardinals recent acquisitions (Cinjtje, Doyle, Rodriguez and others) have ZIPs projections yet. I bet they do by this time next year. Let’s hope they are good ones.

I would be remiss if I didn’t note that IF the Cardinal’s projected WAR improves next year, it will be a result of replenishing the farm system via trades as well as good drafting. Later, I will look more deeply, but I suspect that 2021-2023 were not good draft years, creating a bit of a donut hole that all these trades had to backfill.

I would note that the Cardinal’s did underspend their slot money over the 2017-2025 time period. By $2m on a $25m spend over the 9 years. The $25m is calculated at 105% of the slot values, since teams can go over-slot by 5% with negligible penalties. The underspend is nothing egregious. But I do wonder if a team like St. Louis that is so reliant on draft/sign and develop can afford to miss even that much. Back of the envelop math tells me if $23m can produce 371 fWAR, then $2m more could well have produced an added 35 fWAR. That’s not nothing.

One other interesting (to me) thing I see in the data. I know that the Giants grew impatient with their development-oriented leadership and switched over to Buster Posey. Zaidi was hired in 2019 and let go in 2024. Although the graph above shows the Giants running below average on draft/sign talent acquisition, the ZIPs projection data is much more friendly on the view of more recent draft classes and the Giants will likely trend more to the right over the next couple of years (unless they trade all those prospects). The data hints that the Giants may have been too hasty to abandon the track they were on. I note that Bloom is on a similar 5-year timeline. Makes me wonder if that might be too little.

The Atlanta Braves went to Tampa on Thursday and returned with a 7-3 loss to the New York Yankees. Carlos Carrasco got the ball and lasted just 1.2 innings. Though his outing was short, he surrendered four hits and five runs. He struck out one and surrendered a base on balls.

Offensively, the Braves recorded eight hits but were only able to plate runs in the third and fourth innings. It was a pretty backup-heavy lineup for Atlanta, with most of the regulars getting the day off as the team continues to sort through its depth this spring.

The Braves host the Boston Red Sox this afternoon back in North Port.

More Braves News:

Just ahead of the World Baseball Classic, there is plenty of competition at Braves camp.

MLB News:

The Athletics have reportedly made an extension offer to first baseman Nick Kurtz, who is “open and interested” depending on the timing. 

Minnesota Twins right-hander David Festa will likely begin the season on the injured list after being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement. He will be shut down from throwing for two to three weeks. 

With the offseason behind us, it’s once again time to check in with the Over the Monster community and gauge fan opinion on how the Red Sox organization is doing.

Below are polls covering the job performance of the front office, ownership, and the manager, followed by some other topical items. Your job is to express your opinion on them.

As always, we try and run these four times per year (in late May as the season hits its stride, in early August right after the trade deadline, in early November after the World Series with the offseason kicking off, and in February as we transition into a new spring training).

So, without further ado—make your choices in our February check in, and let us know in the comments your overall feelings about the club.

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Yes 60% vs. No 40%

In August: Yes 74% vs. No 26%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: No 80% vs. Yes 20%

In August: No 75% vs. Yes 25%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Yes 66% vs. No 34%

In August: Yes 76% vs. 24%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Yes 88% vs. No 12%

In August: Yes 90% vs No 10%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Better 64%, Worse 12.4%, The Same 23.6%

In August: Better 90%, Worse 1%, The Same 9%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Offense 49.1%, Starting Pitching 28.2%, Defense 16.2%, Bullpen 4.7%, Other 1.4%

In August: Bullpen 34%, Starting Pitching 26%, Offense 21%, Defense 14%, Other 5%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Yes 76%, No 24%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Blue Jays 43%, Red Sox 27.9%, Yankees 21.3%, Orioles 2.1%, Rays 0.2%

Last February before the season started: Yankees 53%, Red Sox 36%, Orioles 9%, Rays 1%, Blue Jays 1% (Whoops!)

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: No 51%, Yes 49%

In August: Yes 62%, No 38%

Previous poll results for this question when it was run:

In November: Bring back the blues 50.1% vs. Keep the yellows 49.9%. (It literally came down to one vote!)

Now, let’s work some new questions into the mix:

(The next poll should end with “more than a month” but the poll space ran out of characters.)

This post is part of a series of daily questions that we’ll ask the community here at Amazin’ Avenue throughout the month of February. We hope you find the questions engaging and that our prompts can spark some fun conversations in the comments. We’ll see you there and plan to have staff chiming in, too.

What do you miss most about Shea Stadium?

Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. Welcome to (almost) March, which means baseball is less than a month away!

Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.

You know the drill.

This is now an open thread:

SCOTTSDALE, AZ — Nolan Arenado plops down on a bench in the back fields of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ spring training complex, takes off his cap, wipes the perspiration from his forehead, and breaks into a slow, expansive smile.

Sitting just a few hundred yards from the complex where his career first started with the Colorado Rockies, this is home now, perhaps for the duration of his career.

He has found peace.

No more trade rumors.

No more trade requests.

No more venting his frustration with the front office.

Home sweet home, just a five-hour drive from where he grew up in Orange County, California, and about a 20-minute drive away from where he and his wife, Laura, just purchased a new home in the Scottsdale area, with their two young  kids (3-year-old daughter, Levi, and 4-month-old son, Beau).

“I’m so much more relaxed now," Arenado tells USA TODAY Sports. “I mean, obviously, the last year or two, we kept hearing that you’re going to be traded and stuff. Now, to finally have some clarity, it feels good. Really, it feels great.

“I’m thankful for the Diamondbacks to have interest in me. Now, my goal is to hold up my end of the bargain on that and take care of business."