Category: Baseball

Last night, Brady House hit one of the more impressive home runs I have seen at Nationals Park. In the third inning, House absolutely unloaded on a 99 MPH fastball from Eury Perez. He sent it on to the concourse an estimated 474 feet, well at least at first. It was a perfect swing and an absolutely titanic blast.

There have been plenty of ups and downs in Brady House’s first 145 games as a big leaguer. However, swings like that are what keeps fans dreaming. House has not had the same sort of rapid improvement that we have seen from some hitters, but he has certainly improved. His chase rate is down 3%, his barrel rate is up over 8% and his walk rate is up over 4%. 

These are all important steps in the right direction for a talented but raw hitter. A big reason for these improvements is House having a more defined plan of attack during at bats and before games. After the game, House talked about going into his cage sessions with more of a purpose instead of just swinging to get reps. 

Blake Butera said that he expects to see more power from House as he develops that approach. As we saw last night, raw power is not the problem here. House hits the ball hard consistently, and can hit some absolute moon shots. He has all the raw tools to hit 30 homers, he just needs more refinement. Since he has come back from the minors, he has taken steps in the right direction in that regard.

Speaking of that moon shot, the distance of the homer became a source of slight controversy. At first, the distance was shown as 474 feet, which would be tied for the longest home run by a big leaguer all year. However, that total was changed to 445 feet later on. Interestingly, Heriberto Hernandez also hit a homer 445 feet in the 8th inning. At least to the naked eye, House’s looked like it went significantly further.

For his part, House said that this was probably the furthest he has hit one. It went to an area of Nats Park where you seldom see balls go. Butera said he has seen Andres Chaparro and Andrew Pinckney hit it up there in batting practice, but he had not seen anything like that in a game. Doing it off a 99 MPH heater makes it even more impressive.

Whether it was 474 feet or 445 feet, the point is that Brady House hit an absolute nuke. That was the kind of home run that makes fans come to the ballpark. Just the sound off the bat was different and not something you hear too often. As the ball left House’s bat, the left fielder did not move a muscle and Eury Perez just threw his arm up in disgust. I am not exactly statcast, but I buy the 474 foot mark more.

House is no stranger to long home runs in his career. In the minors, he hit some tape measure shots. I remember one in AAA last year that went 458 feet and hit the top of the batters eye. Ever since he was in high school, Brady House has had the ability to hit majestic homers.

We have seen plenty of flashes from the 23 year old, but we need to see him put it all together. Despite that homer last night, House is still hitting just .183 with a .569 OPS against right handed pitching. Going into next year, House will have to prove he is more than just a platoon bat. 

That mammoth homer is a good place to start, but we still need more consistency. Throughout his career, it feels like House just gets a little bit better every year. He has never made some stratospheric leap, but he has steadily improved. That was also the case this year, as he got noticeably better but still has not truly broken out. 

With more big league reps and another offseason under his belt, I think next season could be the year where House truly establishes himself as a big league regular. It really does need to be the year because we cannot wait forever. Those flashes need to turn into consistency. Home runs like that give you a lot more faith in Brady House though.

The Giants are back to their losing ways against the Diamondbacks.

As it has been all year, the pitching staff, be it rotation or relief, hasn’t quite figured out a way to stitch two quality performances together, dropping the second game of the series 10-6.  San Francisco is now 2-9 against their division rivals this season.

Just as Roupp did on Thursday, starter Blade Tidwell muscled his way through 5 innings, but it wasn’t particularly pretty. The right-hander’s first offering of the game was rocketed over the fence by lead-off man Lars Nootbar. More meatballs were served in a 5-run 3rd with Corbin Carroll and Tim Tawa both leaving the yard.  

That decisive rally benefited from a couple of “breaks” going the D-Backs way. “Breaks” might not be the best word, at least for the un-challenged ball call that would’ve struck out Nootbar for the inning’s second out.

Way back in the era before ABS, sure, a fastball squaring up the outside corner and the umpire missing it was a gift, a break, for the opponent. Nothing a team could do about it, a bad call was out of the battery’s hands. But in this new era, catcher Andrew Knizner had an actionable step to right a wrong, to back up his pitcher — and yet when Tidwell froze Nootbar with a 1-2 four-seam, Knizner accepted the call as gospel from Alan Porter.  

Now there are any number of approaches and philosophies of challenge strategy. We’ve seen the Giants make some questionable decisions to protest on inconsequential pitches early in games, leaving future batters/pitchers high-and-dry. There’s a feeling that you want to have at least one challenge late in the game. There’s also a feeling that it’s silly to squirrel them away — Krukow’s smoke ‘em if ya got ‘em philosophy. Swinging count leverage is also key. The difference between 1-0 and 0-1 counts in terms of probable outcome is huge. The difference between a 2-2 count and a strike-3, an out, is obviously far greater. Which is why Knizner’s acceptance of Porter’s call was baffling. Here was a chance to bag the second out, retire a batter who had homered off your starter two innings prior — it doesn’t matter what inning it is, as a catcher you gotta slap that noggin. 

All in all, the guiding principle of ABS challenges is to reverse obvious mistakes. A player is no better than the umpire if they can’t distinguish between a baseball painting a corner and a baseball an inch or two off of it. Porter, the home plate umpire, had a rough game last night. The zone was tight. Pitches dissected by the zone edges weren’t getting called.  All in all, he had 13 pitches challenged and 9 overturned. There could’ve been more. Umps are usually better than that. They should be at least, but a catcher needs to know the zone as well and be confident in their knowledge to refute what is passed off as the law. That “ooh” by Kuiper from the broadcast booth says it all. A damning tut for Porter, but Knizner as well. The catcher can’t miss a location like that, especially on Tidwell’s four-seam fastball, a pitch with no tail or slide or break that as honest and plain as can be.

Knizner went on to overturn four of Porter’s calls, so perhaps he knew the pitch was a strike — but in that crucial moment, he hesitated, overly deferential, or over-thinking whether “the timing was right.”

That inaction cost the Giants. On the next pitch, Tidwell surrendered the sweeper (the offering Nootbar was obviously waiting for), and it was drilled for a double at 110 MPH. Instead of two outs and the bases empty, Tidwell had to proceed against the meat of the order with a runner breathing down his neck. It didn’t go well. He fell into a full count against Carroll, and with a no free hand-outs mindset, handed him a sinker over the heart of the plate. 

Even with two outs and the lead lost, the 3rd dragged on, setting Arizona up for its second “break” of the frame.

With a runner on first single, Nolan Arenado pulled a high-bounding grounder towards third that landed in foul territory beyond the bag.

This goober ruled it fair, and good for a double.

Two pitches later, on a flat slider to Tim Tawa, Arizona had extended their lead to four.   

Tony Vitello and Logan Webb were pretty miffed by the fair call (which can’t be challenged). Webb received the first ejection of his career, and Vitello his second in three games.

They may have had a point — the ball bounced so high with so much spin, it’s really hard to tell if passed over any part of the base — but Porter had a point as well. Instead of Vitello coming up and talking to the umpire right after the call was made, he waited to explode into gestures and expletives until after the third out was recorded and three more runs had scored. Like Knizner, Vitello waited. Would it have made a difference if he was a little more immediate, a little more diplomatic, requesting Porter’s opinion on Alex MacKay’s initial call? Not sure, but what I’m sure of is waiting until the inning over to complain isn’t going to do anything, just as challenging all the obvious strikes-called-balls won’t make up for Knizner’s silence on that 1-2 fastball to Nootbar. 

Despite the early deficit, San Francisco’s bats put up a good fight. Bryce Eldridge hit his 15th homer in the 1st and his 17th double, a two-out RBI knock in the 3rd that scored from Rafael Devers from first.  

Jung Hoo Lee scrambled around the bases in the 2nd on a single and stolen base, then advanced to third on a ground out and scored on a sacrifice fly by Turner Hill.   

Boss Koss pulled the Giants within one in the 4th with his first homer of the year, a 2-run shot off starter Kohl Drake.  

San Francisco did a nice job of answering Arizona early. The offense scored in each of the first four innings. Four of those five runs touched home with two outs recorded. But that steady production came to halt in 5th when, with two on and two out, Jung Hoo Lee’s liner found the glove of Perdomo at short. The potential comeback train lost steam, and in the next half inning, the Diamondbacks pulled away for good.   

Tasked with holding the line, Spencer Bivens, fresh off his contributions to Wednesday’s historic collapse, dropped it like it was hot, immediately forfeiting 2 runs on 3 hits to the first three batters he faced. But, again, as if this is any consolation, there were some “breaks” that went  Arizona’s way. Devers couldn’t run down a tough bloop to shallow right. Not hard hit, yet hard to wrangle. That lead-off single was followed by a smoked double (terrible slider, no excuses there), and Ildemaro Vargas’s obliterated bat still managed to push the baseball far enough to the outfield to score two. One more would score in the inning. Another in the 7th.

 Four runs earned off Bivens. Six off Tidwell. 10 for Arizona, 6 for the Giants.

Two more games on Saturday — baseball is such a gas right now, why not play two?

Well after two electric series against the two best teams in the NL, the Braves have quite the drop-off in competition, facing the Rockies. They took care of business on Friday night behind Grant Holmes and will now hope for another win behind Martin Perez in what is a favorable pitching matchup for Atlanta, despite Perez’ unspectacular pitching.

Ryan Feltner will take the mound for the Rockies, with a 5.53 FIP and 4.98 xFIP on 97.2 innings this season. HE has never been a strikeout pitcher, but has found some success when he can limit walks. He is walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings this season, so it has been a rough go for Feltner with less than 2 Ks per walk. He has most of his success on his changeup, which is a very vertical pitch without much horizontal run. His fastball has average velocity with below average shape and his slider is thrown pretty hard with fine movement. He mixes in a solid sweeper, a curve, and a sinker to round out his pitch mix. This is a guy that the Braves’ bats need to hit hard based on his profile. He doesn’t strike people out, he doesn’t have great command, and his ground ball rate isn’t anything special.

Meanwhile, Martin continues to get away with a 3.12 ERA with more predictive metrics in the low to mid 4s, now through 115.1 innings and in late August. His strikeout and walk rates look similar to Feltner’s, with a somewhat better ground ball rate, but he’s muddled through with some substantial fortune for productive innings in terms of run prevention for Atlanta. Even Martin’s location heatmap on his sinker and cutter are essentially scattered across the strike zone. It’s been a fortunate run for Martin and the Braves, but the Rockies are at least bad enough that it could very plausibly live another day. Now let’s see the Braves get him some run support.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Saturday, August 29, 4:10 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

Several months back, I began a series here at Pinstripe Alley where I was going to put together an All-Star Yankee team of players who were born in a given month. Since then, we as a staff have started doing daily posts for the year 2026, highlighting a Yankee from history whose birthday happens to land on that day. As we near the end of this month, what better way to put a cap on a month’s worth of birthday posts then by using the all-month teams as a way to look back on who we covered? And maybe some we didn’t cover who shared a birthday with someone else?

With that in mind, here are my choices for the All-August Birthday Yankee Team.

Pitcher: Ron Guidry (August 28th Birthday Post)

August has the birthday for a pitcher with a better career in Roger Clemens, but as far as Yankee careers go, there was only one choice to be August’s, and that’s Guidry. Also, he’s my mom’s all-time favorite player, and she would disown me for not picking him.

Catcher: Jorge Posada (August 17th Birthday Post)

There are only a couple catchers in all of Yankees’ history who you could possibly argue were better than Posada, and none of them were born in August. He provided a lot of heart and emotion in the Yankees’ dynasty era and the “Core Four.”

First Base: Anthony Rizzo (August 8th Birthday Post)

The first base position isn’t the strongest for August, so we’ll go with Rizzo, who was decent for a little bit before rapidly falling off following a concussion. Also, he played a non-zero role in convincing Aaron Judge to re-sign during his 2022 free agency, so shoutout to that.

Second Base: Bobby Richardson (August 19th Birthday Post)

Richardson is a player whose numbers don’t particularly impress in a modern context, but who am I to argue with three World Series rings? He was a beloved second baseman for many years and just celebrated his 91st trip around the sun.

Shortstop: José Caballero

Born on August 30th, Cabby is a player who is often described as “you love him when he’s on your team and hate him when he’s on the other.” Having watched him on my team for a little over a year now, I can’t say I disagree with that sentiment.

Third Base: Graig Nettles (August 20th Birthday Post)

Scott Brosius would be a contender for the third baseman on a ton of these other All-Birthday Month teams, just not this one. There is a legitimate argument that Nettles is not only the best third baseman in Yankees’ history, but that he also should be in the Hall of Fame. He’s the only actual choice here.

Left Field: Brett Gardner (August 24th Birthday Post)

While he had only one All-Star appearance and a Gold Glove as far as accolades go, Gardy racked up a sneakily good career according to stats like WAR, as he was a terrific player in almost every aspect of the game.

Center Field: Melky Cabrera (August 11th Birthday Post)

“The Melk Man” was a fan favorite on the 2009 World Series championship team, but ended up leaving shortly after, thanks in part to the emergence of the man playing left for August.

Right Field: Gene Woodling (August 16th Birthday Post)

Woodling was a part of the Yankees’ famous five-peat from 1949-53 and was a very solid role player for those teams, backing up the stars of the era while possessing a fine bat of his own.

Designated Hitter: Rocky Colavito

Between the likes of Gerald Williams, Jay Buhner, and Deion Sanders, there are several more famous players that you could squeeze in at the DH spot. However, I wanted to highlight Colavito (an August 10th birthday) because we didn’t get to him during the Birthday series, and also because the 374-homer slugger was once a winning pitcher in a game for the Yankees.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (66-63) lost 11-3 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning on a Loperfido RBI double. They got 2 more runs in the third inning on a Meyers 2 run double. Alexander got the start but struggled allowing 7 runs over 4.2 innings. Weiss allowed 4 runs in relief and the offense struggled the rest of the way as Sugar Land fell 11-3.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .314 in Triple-A.

• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 2-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• Joey Loperfido, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2 2B, RBI
• Cavan Biggio, 2B: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• Jake Meyers, CF: 1-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI
• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 1-for-3, BB

• Jason Alexander, RHP: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Cesar Salazar, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (58-66) lost 9-1 (BOX SCORE)

Taylor started for the Hooks and went 4.2 innings allowing 5 runs while striking out 4. The offense got on the board in the 6th on a Whitaker RBI single. Leach struggled in relief allowing 4 runs in the 8th and the offense was quiet the rest of the way as the Hooks fell 9-1.

Note: Janek has 26 stolen bases this season.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 2-for-5
• Jason Schiavone, C: 1-for-3, R, SB
• Walker Janek, DH: 1-for-4, SB
• Tyler Whitaker, LF: 1-for-2, RBI, BB

• Andrew Taylor, RHP: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Colby Langford, LHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (41-80) lost 4-2 (BOX SCORE)

Shoemaker started for Asheville and went 4 innings allowing 4 runs, 2 earned. The offense got on the board on a Huezo 2 run home run in the 3rd inning. Varela tossed 4 scoreless innings in relief but the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Asheville fell 4-2.

Note: Huezo has 21 home runs this season.

• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI
• Brandon Nigh, 3B: 0-for-2, R, BB

• Adam Shoemaker, LHP: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Jose Varela, RHP: 4.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (68-53) won 6-2 (BOX SCORE)

Beck started for the Woodpeckers and pitched well tossing 5 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts. The RidgeYaks scored 2 runs in the 6th to take a 2-0 lead. In the 8th, the offense rallied scoring 6 runs on a Luciano RBI double, Sierra sac fly, Hughes walk, Durnin 2 run single and Alvarez 2 run single. Verdugo closed it out tossing 3 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts as the Woodpeckers won 6-2.

Note: Beck has 101 K over 85.2 innings this season.

• Logan Hughes, 1B: 1-for-4, R, RBI, BB
• Kam Durnin, SS: 2-for-5, 2 RBI
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 3-for-5, R, RBI
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI
• Arturo Flores, C: 0-for-1, R, 3 BB
• Rashawn Galloway, LF: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
• Jhoster Baez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Ryan Verdugo, RHP: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (WIN)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Jackson Nezuh – 9:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 7:05 CT

AV: Parker Smith – 6:00 CT

FV: TBD – 6:05 CT

Carson Benge is good at hitting? Big deal. Everyone knows that. Carson Benge is good at fielding? Duh. I know what pulchritudinous means. Carson Benge is good at running? Of course. He might end up with 25 stolen bases this year. Tell me something I don’t know!

How about this: Carson Benge is the Mets’ best ABS user.

That’s right. In addition to all his other accomplishments, the rookie has been the Mets’ most valuable player when it comes to his use of the new Automatic Ball-Strike Challenge system. Benge has recorded 4.2 net overturns vs. expected in his favor, the most by any Met this season. Juan Soto ranks second with 3.5, and Bo Bichette ranks third with 1.6. Benge’s mark is also the 29th-best in baseball, essentially making him an “ace” ABS challenger.

On some level, these results seem predictable. Unlike most of his teammates, Benge had experience using the ABS system coming up through the Minors. But it still takes skill and feel to deploy those challenges correctly in-game (or to stop yourself from doing so), as evidenced by the fact that fellow rookie A.J. Ewing has actually been the Mets’ lowest-ranking ABS user at -3.0 net overturns vs. expected.

So how, then, is Benge providing so much value? He’s not racking up overturns. In fact, most of his value appears to come from his relative restraint, his timing, and his accuracy.

Benge has only challenged nine pitches all season, but he’s won six of those challenges. He hasn’t incorrectly challenged a pitch in over three months, going a perfect 5-0 since May 26. Of those five overturns, two resulted in a walk and one reversed a strikeout, proving more pivotal than an early-count change.

We can see Benge’s restraint measured via Statcast’s expected metrics. The 23-year-old has tapped his head on just 2.6% of challengeable pitches, below the 3.7% that Statcast would expect a player viewing identical pitches to challenge. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that Benge is challenging too little. There are plenty of pitches that a player would be “expected” to challenge incorrectly. Benge appears to be consistently (and correctly) declining those opportunities.

This trend runs in direct contrast to the team’s overall approach this season. Mets batters have challenged 164 pitches thus far, tied with the Yankees for the most in baseball, despite a 50% overturn rate — tied for 12th-best. That leaves the Mets with a lot of overturns (82, fourth-most), but also a lot of lost challenges (82, 3rd-most). It’s a rather reckless strategy, one the organization is sure to hone as ABS tactics further develop over the coming years. But for now, Benge bucks the Mets’ trend, representing a shining light of patience in a lineup of relatively free-tappers.

There’s no award for ABS use, and it’s by no means the most meaningful stat on Benge’s resume — but it’s yet another way that Benge’s rookie season has been remarkably well-rounded, and another facet of the game through which his skills can be appreciated.

Oh, and in case you were looking for any small, petty way to fuel Benge’s Rookie of the Year case when debating Cardinals fans:

Benge: 4.2 Net overturns vs. expected
JJ Wetherholt: 2.5 Net overturns vs. expected

How about we just put these guys in an ABS Derby to decide the winner. Who says no?

We asked you the question about whether or not you think this new offensive approach taken by the Phillies is just a hot streak of good games or an actual, concrete shift in their philosophy once they step into the batter’s box. Your thoughts:

You bunch of pessimists, you.

I can understand why though. Asking a team to change its stripes this dramatically in the middle of the season is a difficult thing to do. The Phillies taking more walks, getting more hits and scoring more runs couldn’t just be a thing that happens overnight. Perhaps it’s the idea that Kevin Long has pounded into their heads all season, only for them to suddenly realize it’s a great way to win baseball games.

However, the big test is still to come. Having all of this success in the regular season is great because it allows them to continue on their quest to get into the postseason, but carrying it over into the postseason games is another thing altogether. We have seen this offense crumble once the lights get brighter, so if we really want to think this is going to be a meaningful change in how they approach at bats, we have to see it once the pitching is at its best.

This post brought to you by FanDuel.

Worcester: L, 2-0 (BOX SCORE)

Just as the Red Sox struggled to put runs on the board on Friday night at Yankee Stadium, Worcester couldn’t get one cross the plate hosting the Triple-A affiliate RailRiders (Yankees AAA) despite the pitching staff doing a good job throughout the night. This had some parallels with the actual Major League team’s game: John Holobetz let up a home run early that made all the difference. Franklin Arias, Nate Eaton and Romy Gonzalez accounted for the only three hits Worcester got on the night, and none of them are were in the same inning. It’s tough to win games that way, as without the rehabbing members of the organization present, there was no pop in the WooSox lineup to speak of.

Portland: W, 9-3 (BOX SCORE)

Every hitter in the Sea Dogs lineup took Richmond (Giants AA) for at least a knock on Friday. Ronald Rosario and Tyler McDonough had two early home runs and Brooks Brannon mashed his twentieth of the year later on. Devin Futrell had yet another effective outing, striking seven out and going six innings. Justin Gonzales even added his first double in Double-A in a well-rounded, decisive win. There’s a lot to be excited about in Brannon’s 2026. He’s still just 22, is a bit defensively versatile, and has been swinging the bat really well. He still has a .943 OPS with plenty of growth over the last year, and potentially, plenty to still experience in years to come.

Greenville: W, 6-2 (BOX SCORE)

Yordanny Monegro is back! After looking promising in 2025 through 33 2/3 innings and pitching 2.67 ERA, the 24-year-old was out for more than a year after suffering an elbow injury that required a Tommy John. Friday Night against the Emperors (Braves High-A) was his first night back, and he walked three but also struck out three, and did not allow a hit. Shea Sprague and former Yankees prospect Aaron Nixon came in and steered the ship the rest of the way. Luckily, this Drive win was powered by Owen Hull. The two Tar Heels that have emerged onto the farm have been huge and Friday night was no exception, as Hull had a home run and a double as Greenville took an early lead and never looked back.

Salem: L, 6-2 (BOX SCORE)

The RidgeYaks went into the bottom of the 8th inning sweating a 2-0 lead behind Leighton Finley’s nine strikeout performance, but then the Woodpeckers (Astros A) came roaring back for six runs. Salem got the lead in the sixth with a Kleyvar Salazar home run to solidify Finley’s performance and give him a lead, but sometimes baseball happens and a team gets hot and doesn’t stop getting hot until there’s a four-run deficit.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The New York Mets (56%) are favored to put their three-game losing streak to an end against the Houston Astros.

With a clear pitching advantage stemming from Nolan McLean taking the mound, I see value on the home side with my Astros vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 29.

Who will win Astros vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (57%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Houston Astros are not doing much damage at the plate, especially against righties. They sit 29th in xwOBA over their last 20 games.

Nolan McLean has feasted on cold offenses all season long. His ERA sits at just 1.40 over 12 starts vs. opponents who ranked Bottom-10 in xwOBA the 20 games prior to squaring off. 

We should expect a quality start here, which puts the New York Mets in a great spot to get a win. They’re quietly ninth in xwOBA vs. RHP the past three weeks, and Cristian Javier is very hittable.

Back New York to 58%.

COVERS INTEL: McLean ranks in the 98th percentile in Fastball Run Value, and should cause problems for a Houston offense hitting .238 against RH fastballs the past 30 games.

Astros vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (47%)

McLean has allowed two runs or fewer in all 12 starts against teams who ranked Bottom-10 in xwOBA their last 20 games, and gave up 0.38 HR/9 along the way.

He is going to make life difficult on an Astros lineup owning the seventh-highest soft contact rate against right-handed pitching this month.

Both teams have Top-10 bullpens by wOBA in August so we shouldn’t expect much fireworks late.

If Javier avoids an early blow-up, there’s a clean path to an Under.

Play to 48%.

Astros vs Mets home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (23%)

Yordan Alvarez owns otherworldly numbers against McLean’s pitch mix. He will primarily see sinkers, fastballs, and curveballs, and that sets up very well for the AL MVP favorite.

Alvarez has posted a .389 ISO, 18.1% barrel rate, and 60.9% hard-hit rate when facing those pitches. 

His 70% hard hit rate over the last 25 at-bats against that mix signals another hot stretch could be looming.

Play to 26%.

Astros vs Mets weather

With weather in the mid 70s and soft winds, the conditions are still more favorable for the pitchers.

Astros vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Astros 45% | Mets 56%
• Run line: Astros 64% | Mets 38%
• Over/Under: Over 55% | Under 46%

Astros vs Mets trend

New York has hit the Under in 16 of its last 22 home games (+10.65 units, 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mets.

How to watch Astros vs Mets and game info

Astros vs Mets latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Friday night in the Dodgers minor leagues was highlighted by one former top pitching prospect and a current top arm in the system.

Player of the day

Jackson Ferris put together his third good start in a row, posting a season-high seven innings with eight strikeouts for Oklahoma City, allowing only one run, working around three walks and seven hits.

Ferris has allowed two runs with 20 strikeouts in 17 innings over his last three starts, lowering his season ERA from 7.15 to 6.00.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

A low-scoring affair got wild in the ninth and 10th, when singles by Hyeseong Kim and Ryan Fitzgerald brought home the tying and winning runs in the Comets’ victory over the El Paso Chihuahuas (Padres).

Jerming Rosario allowed two home runs with one out in the ninth inning, turning a one-run lead into a one-run deficit. Oklahoma City kept things alive with a run in the ninth, then Nick Robertson allowed the free runner to score in the top of the 10th, but nothing else.

James Tibbs had two singles, two walks, a stolen base, one run, and one RBI. Zach Ehrhard also singled, stole a base, and scored twice. Ryan Ward tripled in a run.

Rehabbing

Will Smith caught seven innings behind the plate and was hitless in three at-bats with a strikeout on Friday. Smith has been behind the plate three times in four days on his rehab assignment so far this week, catching five, seven, and seven innings.

Double-A Tulsa

Chris Newell hit a three-run home run in the Drillers’ two-run win over the Midland RockHounds (A’s).

Christian Zazueta struck out five and walked one in his five innings, allowing only one run on three hits. Zazueta in 10 starts in Double-A has a 3.48 ERA with 67 strikeouts against only seven walks in 44 innings.

Christian Ruebeck has been wild in relief this year with an 18.1-percent walk rate, and that included three walks to go with his three strikeouts on Friday. But it also came with two scoreless innings, giving him one total run allowed in 9 2/3 August innings, with nine walks but also 14 strikeouts.

High-A Great Lakes

Mairo Martinus singled home Jaron Elkins in the seventh inning, giving the Loons the winning margin over the Lansing Lugnuts (A’s). Emil Morales hit a two-run home run in the fourth inning for the other Great Lakes runs.

Cam Leiter struck out four in three innings, allowing only one unearned run. That’s two starts with no earned runs in High-A, with 11 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings for the right-hander.

Class-A Ontario

The Tower Buzzers were held scoreless in a road loss to the Stockton Ports (A’s). Ontario had eight hits, all singled until 2026 13th-round draft pick Caleb Johnson doubled. Ontario loaded the bases with nobody out in the ninth but did not score.

Catcher Francisco Espinoza had two of the eight hits.

Friday scores

• Oklahoma City 5, El Paso 4 (10 innings)
• Tulsa 5, Midland 3
• Great Lakes 3, Lansing 2
• Sotckton 6, Ontario 0

Saturday schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Emmet Sheehan) vs. El Paso (Jagger Haynes)
• 4:05 p.m: Great Lakes (Tyler Gough) vs. Lansing (Jorge Marcheco)
• 5 p.m.: Tulsa (Patrick Copen) at Midland (Corey Avant)
• 7:05 p.m.: Ontario (Luis Gamez) at Stockton (Jackson Phipps)

The Pirates pitching staff carried the team last year. They had a team ERA of 3.76 and 1,314 team strikeouts. The rotation was strong and consistent while the offense absolutely struggled.  

Paul Skenes won the NL Cy young award last year with just 10 wins. The pitching staff this year has been not as consistent and will be a major question mark going into the 2027 season. 

Braxton Ashcraft leads the team with 13 wins and just 5 losses. Ashcraft has been absolutely fantastic for the Bucs but after him has been more questionable then Pirate fans thought it would be. 

Skenes has a 3.79 ERA and 9 wins and you can tell his velocity has gone down since last year. The first step for the Pirates pitching getting back and being dangerous starts with Skenes. They need him to be elite like he was for the first two seasons he was in the league.

With Skenes being dominant, you can build the rest of the rotation around. An elite Skenes with how Ashcraft has been playing this year would be lethal. Plus you get a full year of Jared Jones, that could be once again a top pitching rotation in the league. 

I think there are two things the Pirates should do to improve that pitching for next year. The first one is to add a veteran arm, there is a lot of inexperience in the rotation, and I think adding a cheap veteran arm paired up with some younger arms can build a nice dangerous rotation. Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito are two veteran pitchers I would love to see them look at in the offseason. 

The second thing is I think the Pirates have to have a tough conversation about Mitch Keller. Keller has been a solid pitcher for the last couple of seasons, but he still has three years left on his contract, and it looks like his play has been decreasing. This year ended with an injury, and there is a possibility Pittsburgh could get some young pieces for the farm for Keller. 

These moves aren’t massive, but I think if the Pirates make these moves, the pitching rotation will be better and hopefully more consistent in the 2027 season.    

The cosmic irony is far from lost on me that I got comfortable with this team and then it has largely struggled since. This is just the second Cubs loss all year in which they scored eight runs. They’ve lost three times when they’ve scored seven. All of that underscores just how bad their pitching has been at times. This offense is just too good to lose when it scores that many runs. It didn’t start out that way though. Through three innings, this felt like it could be an easy win.

3-0 after three. Then they allowed nine unanswered runs over the next four innings and that turned out to be the game. They did come off the mat with five runs of their own to make it close. But they just couldn’t get back over the hump. I wrote in my preview that Rhett Lowder was having a rough year and they did well enough against him. I noted that you could get to their bullpen and that was true. I didn’t comment on the Reds offense, but there wasn’t anything I would have seen there that would suggest this. This was just the ninth double-digit scoring game of the year for them.

Curiously, the Reds have won just five of their last 14 games. But their last three wins have all come in games that they’ve scored 10 or more runs. They did have a loss in there where they scored nine. But it’s not like they’ve unlocked something. In the losses are three shutouts, and three games where they scored one. It’s interesting because it is something I’ve talked about with Cub results. That is just how stratified the results can be at times. I lived through the 90’s and I didn’t need a mountain of stats to perceive that scoring had increased significantly. I would not like that data from someone who manipulates data better than me. I don’t know that I’m right, but I perceive that there are more “outlier” results. In turn making them less outlier and more a part of a homogenous data set.

I feel pretty comfortable saying that the Cubs are scoring more, more often. Yes, this is one of the highest scoring Cub teams of our lifetimes. But it just feels parabolic or something. Like the numbers in the middle of the bell curve are normal but at the outside, the slope is steeper. Obviously, the stand out part of the data set are the multi-inning games against position players. I don’t remember ever seeing that before and I feel like we’ve seen that a small handful of times. But I don’t think it’s just that.

It’s not hard to imagine that if my perception is correct that it correlates with the way the best pitchers are used on teams. I’d construct the argument that some teams pack it in at times. But then, the exhibit in front of us is the Cubs allowing 10 runs. There wasn’t any point in time where the Cubs let go of the rope. So maybe I’m not right.

Whether that theory is right or wrong, I think the second theory almost certainly has truth to it. We saw it play out in Arizona. I think teams have become very sophisticated at picking up a whole host of tells. I don’t think many of the teams would ever be honest with you. But it’s not hard to imagine when we see runs so often clustering. The scoring in baseball is more and more becoming peaks and valleys. I posit that hitting has become immensely difficult on the whole. I think the vast majority of pitchers are fairly unreachable by all but the best players when they execute.

But again, it’s not hard to imagine that players who are looking at their tablets over and over through a game are increasingly adept at picking up on things that clue in to what pitchers are doing. And of course, it isn’t just players. There are coaches and team personnel also watching all of this. I imagine there are vast assortments of observations being made, ranging all of the way from visual things to running pitch sequencing through spreadsheets and finding tendencies. What may seem random or matchup dictated may at times be extremely predictable. We are talking about guys who got where they did largely by being able to pick up on the way the stitches on a baseball are moving and what that tells them about the pitch type and location.

I’m reminded of one of my friends back when I was playing poker multiple days every week years ago. We used to joke about having one of those fancy tables with the hole camera that shows what the cards were. It was always a joke, but he was quick to say that he’d never play again if we put them in. He was a financial analyst and he recognized a fool’s bet. He correctly identified that I would have been studying footage endlessly. I had a mind that could remember specific hands I’d played against people and how they played out and could predict ranges of behavior.

I did it all with a good memory and a controlled group of guys I played against. And I was either a rookie league player or Low-A player compared to these guys. The most sophisticated players ever to play the game. Paired with state of the art technology and state of the art statistical nerds. I’d wager that way more than half the time that your favorite pitcher gets hammered that the team has picked up on something.

Again, not hard to imagine. We are already seeing at least one team working to counter some of those effects. It doesn’t get talked about a ton, but the Rays almost always set their catcher up center cut on the strike zone. Anthony Rizzo and David Ross just talked about this on their most recent podcast. Rizzo talked about always having someone in the dugout make noise if the catcher set up early inside. These guys are doing anything they can to try to simplify the task of hitting. We’ve all known for years that they will know immediately if, for instance, your sweeper is never a strike. Then they know when they pick up that rotation to just let it go. It narrows things down.

These are the things I think about on a day when there is a five-run inning one way and then a four -un inning the other way. Without those innings, this was a 5-4 game. Ho hum. Trent Thornton has been so good. But boy, did it go bad on him in a hurry. Four hits and two homers in seven batters. His ERA jumped from 2.32 to 3.32 in one outing. This is just the fifth time in his career that he’s allowed five runs in an outing. The last was June of last year, while pitching for the Mariners.

Things I think about.

Three Positives:

• Seiya Suzuki had three hits, two of them doubles. He drove in two and scored two more.
• Michael Busch had a two-run homer and a walk.
• Matt Shaw made his return with a double in his only plate appearance.

Game 135, August 28: Reds 10, Cubs 8 (76-59)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.143). 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R
• Hero: Matt Shaw (.107). 1-1, 2B, R
• Sidekick: David Peterson (.085). 5 IP, 24 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 R, 6 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Trent Thornton (-.569). 0.2 IP, 7 BF, 4 H, BB, 5 R (L 5-5)
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.119). 0-3, BB, R
• Kid: Daniel Palencia (-.070). IP, H, R, 2 K

Note: Thornton looks in the early numbers like he’ll register the third worst WPA score of the year. The three worst scores have now happened in an eight-day period (seven games).

WPA Play of the Game: Tyler Stephenson’s three-run homer off of Trent Thornton. (.246)

Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s two-run homer in the third. (.162)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 134 Winner: Matthew Boyd received 43 of 45 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +26
• Alex Bregman +20
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Javier Assad +12
• Shōta Imanaga +11
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Nico Hoerner -14
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Note: A Rizzo Award oddity for August. Not one, but two players leaving the top five in one night (Kelly and Thornton). At the same time, Seiya gives himself a gap (4.5) from the bottom five.

Scoreboard Watching: Diamondbacks win (4.5 back of Cubs). Dodgers win (5 up). Padres lose (4 back). Braves win (4 up). Brewers win (8 up). Phillies win (1 back). You really wanted to crush this series, it only gets harder after this series.

Up Next: Game two of this three game set and this 13 straight game stretch. They are 0-1 for both. Kevin Gausman (7-11, 4.37) goes for the Cubs. He moves up one spot in the rotation with the off day. Kevin is 2-1 with a 4.30 as a Cub, coming off of seven scoreless in Arizona. It’s been more than two years since he started against the Reds.

Lefty Andrew Abbott starts for the Reds. Abbott is 6-9 with a 4.15. He’s fairly consistent, checking in at 1-4 with a 4.24 over his last seven starts. His last start was also against the Diamondbacks. He allowed four runs over six and lost. Two starts against the Cubs this year, vastly different. 5.2 scoreless and four runs in four innings. He didn’t factor in the decision in either.

This is a game on paper where you look to stay close and win late. That’s exactly how the two prior Abbott starts went.

Hello friends and happy Saturday!

It was a sad Friday night for the M’s, who dropped the first game to the Blue Jays by an 8-1 final. We don’t need to dwell on this one too much.

Let’s get you caught up on the rest of the happenings from around baseball.

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, the Mariners have decided to temporarily shift Bryce Miller to the bullpen.
• A 1-of-1 Mariners Jimothy card could sell for enough money to fund one kid’s college tuition, writes Sofia Schwarzwalder at The Seattle Times.

Around the league…

• Atlanta right-handers Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach will each undergo season-ending elbow surery.
• The Rays have cleared another hurdle in the process of getting a new stadium built in Tampa, with the Hillsborough County Commission voting in favor.
• Major League Baseball has suspended Guardians would-be prospect “David Severino” for lying about his name and age.
• Chris Black attempted to diagnose what has gone wrong with Jays star Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. this year.
• Michael Clair profiled Giaconino Lasaracina and Giacomo Taschin, the first-ever Italian-born professional battery trying to make a name for themselves in the Blue Jays organization.
• Russell Dorsey at Yahoo! Sports talked to players around the game about how pitch calling is a dying — or maybe evolving — art with many coaches now calling games from the dugout.

Anders’ pick…

• Elizabeth Merrill and David Purdum at ESPN wrote about the harrowing dangers of gambling addiction from the perspective of one family who’s college-aged son was consumed by it.

Triple-A: Durham (Rays) 7, Norfolk Tides 0

The Tides mustered a whopping three hits and one walk in this game. That’s a tough way to win. Enrique Bradfield Jr., Creed Willems, and Brandon Butterworth all took 0-fors in the game. Heston Kjerstad pinch hit in the ninth inning and hit a double. He’s OPSing .790 at the level this year.

Norfolk’s starter, Trace Bright, had a “could have been better, could have been worse” kind of outing, with three runs surrendered in 5.1 innings. Bright walked none and struck out seven; he’s got a 1-10 record this year and a 7.29 ERA, so it’s not exactly Shane Baz bad luck territory. What really kicked the game out of reach – unfortunately for prospect-watchers – is that Luis De León gave up three runs while failing to finish one inning worth of relief.

Box score.

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox 9, Harrisburg (Nationals) 7 – 10 innings

This is a dispatch from the alternate universe that poses an affirmative answer to the question, “What if it turned out that Vance Honeycutt was good?” The outfielder who was bumped up to this level almost out of desperation to do something with him collected four hits, all for extra bases: Two doubles, a triple, and his first Double-A homer. The home run was a two-run shot that put the Baysox on top in extra frames. I’m not believing it means anything. I’m just saying it happened.

Chesapeake’s starting pitcher was JT Quinn. He labored through a four-inning outing, 82 pitches and only 46 thrown for strikes. That led to him giving up five walks and four hits, with three runs allowed (two earned). Quinn did leave the game with a lead thanks to some early Baysox scoring. They fell behind for a while, tied it up in the eighth, then got the winning runs in the tenth. Reliever Micah Ashman finished the game off pitching the ninth and tenth. Things got interesting in the bottom of the tenth as the Senators had the bases loaded when the game ended. However, they scored the Manfred Man and nobody else, so they lost.

Box score.

High-A: Frederick Keys 4, Asheville (Astros) 2

Incredibly efficient scoring from the Keys here, as they were able to turn five hits into four runs. They helped themselves by drawing five walks and stealing four bases, and their opponent helped them by committing a pair of errors that led to a pair of unearned runs.

Jaiden Lo Re is at this level now! Let’s just say he’s still adjusting. He took an 0-4 in this game and is hitting .091 through his first few games. Recent trade acquisition Enddy Azocar had a single in four at-bats; he’s batting .341/.382/.585 in 20 games since joining the Keys. Pretty good for a 19-year-old.

Shoutout to Keys starting pitcher Stephen Still, not one of the top prospects I pay attention to around here since he’s 24 at High-A. Still struck out ten batters in 6.2 innings in the game. A good outing! Through five games at this level, he’s sporting a 3.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

Box score.

Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 4, Fredericksburg (Nationals) 2

In the comments yesterday, someone asked, “Does Delmarva ever win?” Not usually! But sometimes, they do. They tied the game in the seventh inning and took the lead in the eighth and held on even though Fredericksburg managed to get the tying run on base with only one out. They were able to do this even though they mustered just 1-13 hitting with runners in scoring position.

Shorebirds batters drew eight walks in the game. Serving as the DH, this year’s fifth round pick, Jimmy Anderson, was on base all four times, drawing three of those walks with a double on top of that. Outfielder Jhomnardo Reyes drew a walk but was hitless in his three at-bats.

Box score.

Saturday’s Scheduled Games

• Norfolk: at Durham, 6:45. Starter: TBD
• Chesapeake: at Harrisburg, 6:00. Starter: Patrick Reilly
• Frederick: vs. Asheville, 6:00. Starter: Twine Palmer
• Delmarva: vs. Fredericksburg, 7:05. Starter Collin McKinney

Thankfully, on this night, there was no rain around, meaning teams could actually play in their games. Here is how the kids did.

Lehigh Valley 6, Syracuse 4

Robert Moore, you glorious man. Having himself a night, Moore went 3 for 3, blasting two home runs to lead the IronPigs to a victory, including this walk off two-run blast.

That’s the kind of home run you remember for a while if you’re Robert Moore.

The rest of the offense was nonexistent as they had three hits between them, but it didn’t matter. Moore was the leader and gave them the win.

Binghamton 5, Reading 1

Gage Wood night wasn’t exactly a night to remember. The team’s top prospect struggled a bit, giving up five runs in five innings, allowing a home run in the process. He did strike out seven and only walk one, so there is some silver lining to the start. In the process, he did generate 22 whiffs so the stuff was fine; it’s the results that were worrisome. The rest of the team had a hard time as well, the offense collecting only three hits on the night. The best one was an RBI double by Carson DeMartini that scored Aroon Escobar as the only run of the game.

Wilmington 8, Jersey Shore 1
Wilmington 11, Jersey Shore 2

I think with a lot of these players on the BlueClaws, you’re starting to see the effects of a long season coming up. Playing a doubleheader to make up for the rain postponement on Thursday, the team scored three runs in total. In game one, there was only three hits (is this a theme?) gathered by the team while the pitching struggled. In game two, the offense was a little better where they had eight hits, but it only amounted to two runs. A lot of them were singles in both games, so it’s not like someone had a standout affair that we can point to. Daunte Stuart had three hits between the two games! As far as pitching, there wasn’t much to speak of. Giuseppe Velasquez had three innings of scoreless relief in game two, but the rest of the arms? Completely meh.

Clearwater 8, Lakeland 6

Cade Climie, you can join Robert Moore in having yourself a night. Leading the offense on the evening, Climie went 3 for 4 with a home run and six RBI! You may not know who he is, so some background. An undrafted free agent, Climie took advantage of the MLB Draft League to get himself noticed.

Since signing with the Phillies, Climie has hit well, bringing his line on the season average up to .275, but with an OPS under .700. He may not come to much, but it’s nice that baseball can still produce a few good stories of players.

As far as other players on the night, Macon Winslow had three hits for the Threshers, two of them doubles, and an RBI.