It is a delectable September showdown series pitting longtime rivals: Braves at Phillies, four games in Philadelphia that will go a long way toward determining the winner of the National League East.
And it starts in spectacular fashion: Left-handers Chris Sale of Atlanta opposing Cristopher Sánchez, the 2024 Cy Young Award winner and perhaps this year’s honoree linking up in a rare battle of true aces Friday, Sept. 4.
“We obviously love any time he’s on the bump,” Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson says of Sale. “He’s a bulldog.”
Yet for the Braves, who hold a four-game lead on Philadelphia with 22 games remaining, it’s the rest of the weekend that might better inform their championship chances as summer gives way to autumn.
They have no All-Star answer for Philly’s Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo, who pitch Saturday and Monday. Both strike out more than 10 batters a game and their stuff is well-suited for October. On this superstar-studded Philly squad, Sánchez, Luzardo and Wheeler go 1-2-3 in WAR.
Atlanta? It will counter with left-hander Martín Pérez and righties Tyler Mahle and Bryce Elder, respected arms who nonetheless will not light up the marquee in the NL playoffs the way Philly’s trio, or the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tarik Skubal or Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski can.
In a sense, this weekend may give us a sense whether Atlanta’s good guys are good enough.
“Just consistency,” Atlanta manager Walt Weiss says when asked what he needs from the non-Sale staffers. “Our pitching’s been really good. Pretty much all year. Just continue to do what they’re doing. It’s all about finding consistency in this league.
“It’s tough to do, because it’s a tough league.”
Particularly when injuries wrack the pitching department, as it has the Braves’. Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo Lopez have missed much or all of this season. Meanwhile, Sale is 37, and Atlanta has run a six-man rotation to cut down his innings and allow him a loose leash on nights he does throw.
He will be on a full week’s rest when he pitches Friday, his last outing a sterling one-hit shutout of the Dodgers Aug. 27. At 144 innings, his tank is still full.
And the results bear that out: Sale has a 2.06 ERA and 177 strikeouts in those 144 innings, helping Atlanta’s rotation post a 3.72 ERA, seventh in the majors.
The rest of the starters? They’ve combined for a 4.14 ERA, a more middle-of-the-pack outcome.
Yet Atlanta may have at least a partial antidote to its decent but not dominant pitching situation.
A 'great pickup' at the deadline
It was virtually lost in the flurry of higher-profile deals at the trade deadline, one that left Atlanta fans grumbling that their GM, Alex Anthopoulos, did not do enough to upgrade the rotation for the stretch.
No, Tyler Mahle, acquired from the San Francisco Giants, did not move the needle much in that first week of August, not when Skubal or Robbie Ray or Clay Holmes were available. Yet something’s happened since Mahle arrived in Atlanta.
It’s just a five-start sample, but Mahle’s output with the Braves compared to the Giants is startling:
His ERA dropped from 5.13 in 18 starts with the Giants to 1.48. His WHIP fell from 1.39 to 0.96, his hits per nine from 9.0 to 7.1. Meanwhile, his strikeout-walk ratio more than doubled, from 2.41 to 6.40.
Weiss credits the Braves and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner for “tightening up his arsenal,” particularly throwing his splitter more often, especially against right-handers. Mahle downplays that notion, claiming he’s the same guy.
Yet a change of scenery undeniably helped.
“I don’t know what to tell you. It’s like a fresh start,” says Mahle. “I have the same stuff I did in San Fran. Same repertoire. There’s nothing to it but fresh start, good baseball team, good coaching staff.
“I went from one of the worst records to one of the best records. It’s pretty crazy. There’s been no hiccup in that transition over here. Everybody here is awesome. Everybody made me feel welcome. Just get here and do your thing.”
It would be a boon for the Braves if he maintains this level. Beyond Sale, there’s not a ton of bat-missing in this Atlanta rotation, which makes the fielding independent pitching marks of their ace (a majors-leading 2.19) and Mahle’s Braves FIP (2.87) stand out compared to Pérez (4.20), Elder (4.71) and Grant Holmes (4.71).
The Braves would love for AJ Smith-Shawver, recently returned from June 2025 Tommy John surgery, to figure heavily in their plans, but he’s been hit hard in four starts and may not have the runway to impact their playoff rotation.
That makes Mahle’s recent run all the more important.
“Great pickup,” says Weiss. “He’s been a big boost to our rotation. He has the invisible fastball guys have a tough time getting to. He commands the ball.
“Man, he’s been more than good for us. He’s been unbelievable.”
Follow the leader
The great unknown: How much will the Braves need “unbelievable” rather than simply serviceable this weekend, in the final three weeks, in the playoffs?
It doesn’t hurt when their No. 1 is a tone-setter.
“It's kind of tough, you know, following up on him,” says Holmes of Sale. “Obviously, the best pitcher I've ever played with. Just following in his footsteps, trying to do what he does, how he prepares.
“It’s a future Hall of Famer. And you don't get to play with those too often, so, when you get the chance, you just take it all in.”
Holmes in some ways epitomizes the middle to back end of Atlanta’s rotation. Four of his past six outings have been scoreless efforts, including a six-inning, three-hit effort against the New York Yankees and a six-inning, one-hit muzzling of the Chicago White Sox – two AL playoff teams.
Holmes given up more than three runs in just two of his career-high 26 starts, one at Coors Field. Elder, a 2024 All-Star who in 149 innings has just 121 strikeouts, is a little more extreme. He’s given up two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 26 starts, but five or more in six of them.
It is that sort of volatility that can keep managers up deep into October nights. Come playoff time, the Braves will contract their rotation down to two or three and lean more heavily on a bullpen that’s fourth in the majors with a 3.39 ERA.
Perhaps their starters’ stuff will pick up in shorter bursts. Perhaps set-up man Robert Suarez will complete his return from a forearm strain that’s sidelined him since June.
“I’m just excited we have the opportunity to win this division. And go to the playoffs,” says Mahle. “Wherever I end up pitching, great. I just happen to be on a winning team, a team that has the ability to go deep in the playoffs.”
And at the very least, has an ace they can hand the ball to with little hesitation.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Do Braves have pitching beyond Chris Sale? Philly series could turn NL East
