Category: Baseball

Prior to the first game of a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza gave some updates on the team...

Soto dealing with a fever

Juan Soto missed Sunday's series finale against the Miami Marlins due to an illness and will remain out on Monday.

"He developed a fever again last night, still weak," Mendoza said. "We just got to wait the next few hours, how he develops, and hopefully there's some type of availability there. Who knows, we got to wait."

With Soto out of the lineup, MJ Melendez served as the DH on Sunday and Carson Benge will slide into that role Monday afternoon.

Mendoza had said Sunday that there was "kind of like a flu going around" the clubhouse, as it appears to still be affecting Soto.

Lindor starting baseball activities

On the bright side, Mendoza noted that Francisco Lindor has started doing baseball activities as he works his way back from a calf injury that has sidelined him since April 22.

"He started running and doing baseball activities. Now hitting in the cages. He's going to take ground balls," Mendoza said. "So now, we got to that phase where there's baseball involved."

The manager made it clear there is still not a timetable for Lindor's anticipated return, but he is progressing.

"I think we just go day-by-day, week-by-week. The good thing is he's already in that phase where he's doing baseball. But again, it's hard to put a timetable. He's still got to check a lot of boxes."

Additionally, Mendoza gave a positive update on catcher Francisco Alvarez, who underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in his right knee on May 14.

"Alvarez, I mean this guy is unbelievable. He's already hitting, he's already doing catching," Mendoza said. "We were talking about eight weeks, I'm not sure about that now, this guy is built different... There's a lot of positive from him too."

Knocking on the door

Mendoza was optimistic on Saturday about Jared Young being ready to return during the team's six-game homestand and it sounds like Tuesday may be the day. 

Veteran reliever A.J. Minter also appears to be in a similar situation and could be activated Tuesday or Wednesday.

"Jared Young, there's a good chance that he'll be active tomorrow. He's going to go through a workout today," Mendoza said. "Same thing with A.J. Minter. He's going to go through his throwing progression today. Hopefully either tomorrow or the next day."

Mendoza added that he sees Minter has a "big part of our bullpen" once he returns.

Young has been on the IL since April 13 due to a torn meniscus in his left knee, while Minter last pitched in the majors on April 26, 2025 as he missed the remainder of the season following surgery for a torn left lat muscle.

Upcoming rehab assignments

Kodai Senga, who threw 58 pitches into the fourth inning on Friday in his first rehab appearance for St. Lucie, is expected to pitch again on Thursday. Mendoza said they are unsure if that rehab appearance will be in Double-A or Triple-A, but the right-hander will get another start before they determine the next steps.

"Senga's throwing a bullpen today and the goal is for him to make another rehab outing on Thursday. Whether that's Double-A or Triple-A, that's TBD, we're monitoring weather and all that. That's the plan for him."

Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco could also play in a rehab game later this week as he recovers from Achilles bursitis.

"Polanco, another good day yesterday, he got some at-bats in Port St. Lucie," Mendoza said. "He's go gonna through a full workout today. Hopefully, he starts a rehab assignment at some point this week."

When Polanco returns, Mendoza said they will likely use him as DH instead of inserting him back at first base.

"The way we see it is gonna be a lot of DH, to be honest with you," Mendoza said. "Hopefully we can get him a game or two at first base, but try to keep him off his feet as much as possible. He'll play some first base once he starts going through his rehab assignment, but probably looking more like DH and try to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible."

Toledo Mud Hens 8, Indianapolis Indians 4 (box)

Toledo won the final game of the series against Indianapolis on Sunday, 8-4, to tie things at three games apiece.

It was a good day for the offense, with Max Clark doubling and homering. Jace Jung did the same, and Max Anderson also doubled. Clark got the scoring started in the first inning with a solo shot to right field. It was a no-doubter into the second deck.

Jung opened the second with a double, and Corey Julks homered right after to make it 3-0.

Meanwhile, Dylan File put together his best start of the season. File only allowed one run on two hits and no walks while striking out four through five innings. He drew 10 whiffs on 40 swings and touched 96.6 with his fastball. He used six distinct pitches, according to Baseball Savant’s data, and was effective with each of them.

File retired the lineup in order his first time through, but leadoff man Ronny Simon got to him for a double in the fourth. Billy Cook singled in Simon two batters later, but those were the only baserunners File gave up on the day.

Beau Brieske took over in the sixth and erased a leadoff single with a double play, but he walked the next batter and gave up a game-tying home run after that. Woo-Suk Go was much more efficient in the seventh, working around a one-out walk, and that’s when the offense came back to life.

Clark and Anderson hit back-to-back doubles with one out, and Eduardo Valencia stole the RBI train going with a single. Jung capped off the five-run frame with a two-run homer.

Go came back out for the eighth and struck out the side, and Yoniel Curet closed things out in the ninth. Curet gave up a run, but he still got the job done.

Clark: 2-4, 2B (13), HR (2), 2 R, 2 RBI, BB

Anderson: 2-4, 2B (3), R, RBI, BB

Jung: 2-4, 2B (10), HR (6), 2 R, 2 RBI, K

File: 5.0 IP, 2 H, R, ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a rare Monday game to open the home series against Columbus, starting at 11:05 a.m. ET.

Altoona Curve 8, Erie SeaWolves 6 (box)

Erie dropped the series against Altoona 4-3 on Sunday with an 8-6 loss.

A brutal 6-run third inning all but doomed the SeaWolves. Sean Hunley was cruising until a one-out walk and catcher’s interference put two men on base. A double started the bleeding, and it was hard to stop from there. Hunley exited the game after hitting the next batter, but Yosber Sanchez didn’t fare much better.

Sanchez gave up a pair of RBI singles to the first batters he faced, and a bases-clearing double made it 6-0 before the end of the inning.

Erie answered with two runs in the top of the fourth, courtesy of Andrew Jenkins, who tripled in John Peck (reached on error) and Justice Bigbie (walk).

Lael Lockhart kept Altoona at bay for three innings of no-hit work. Unfortunately, Erie didn’t do anything significant offensively during that period.

The SeaWolves added another two runs in the seventh. Jenkins started off a string of four straight singles, followed by Peyton Graham, E.J. Exposito and Bennet Lee, who got the RBI. Brett Callahan drove in the other run with a sacrifice fly.

Lockhart left the game after that, and his replacement, Tyler Owens, immediately got into trouble with a one-out double. A disengagement violation moved the runner over to third, and an RBI single made it a three-run game, whic his significant because Erie wasn’t done scoring.

Thayron Liranzo led off the eighth with a single, and Altoona’s pitching staff walked the next three batters to bring him across. Exposito drove in another run with a sacrifice fly, which would have been the tying run if not for Owens’ troubles. Either way, Lee grounded into a double play after that, so the comeback was dead anyway.

Johan Simon got the eighth. He hit the first two batters he faced and gave up an RBI single before getting yanked. Moises Rodriguez got cleanup duty.

Liranzo: 1-5, R, 3 K

Jenkins: 2-3, 3B (2), R, 2 RBI, BB

Callahan: 2-4, RBI

Lockhart: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: Erie is at home next week against the Chesapeake Baysox, starting Tuesday at 6:05 p.m. ET.

South Bend Cubs 5, West Michigan Whitecaps 4 (box)

West Michigan finished its series against South Bend with a 5-4 loss, the fifth-straight defeat for the 14-31 Whitecaps.

This was a weird one for West Michigan. The Whitecaps only had one hit and two baserunners through six innings and four hits on the day, but a four-run seventh inning gave them a brief lead.

Jackson Strong had two of those base knocks, including an RBI single in that eventful seventh inning. Samuel Gil drove in the second run, and Strong scored the tying run on a ball thrown into center field by the catcher. Luke Shliger got the go-ahead, pinch-hit RBI with a base hit into left field, and everyone was happy for a bit.

Let’s rewind, though, because it’s a miracle West Michigan wasn’t trailing by a lot more at that point. Gabriel Reyes walked SEVEN batters in his 4 1/3 innings of work, and somehow only two of them scored. A pair of double plays and two clutch bases-loaded flyouts got Reyes there, but there’s still no excuse for seven free passes.

Reyes gave up a pair of runs in the first inning after a leadoff error from Cristian Santana at third and (you guessed it) a walk set him for a rough opening frame. South Bend didn’t score its third run until the fifth, when Carlos Lequerica took over with a runner on base. A two-out double brought that one around.

Okay, back to that brief lead in the seventh. Ethan Sloan relieved Lequerica in the top of the seventh and worked around a leadoff base hit and one-out walk, but the long inning didn’t do him any favors. A pair of one-out singles set up a two-run single, and just like that the Whitecaps are losing again…

West Michigan blew all of its energy in the seventh, so a quick eighth inning kept the momentum on South Bend’s side. Bryce Rainer struck out for a third time on the day with Ricardo Hurtado on base to send the game to the ninth.

CJ Weins worked around a leadoff single in the top of the ninth, but there was no magic in the bottom half of the inning. West Michigan went down 1-2-3 to take the loss. Womp womp.

Rainer: 0-4, 3 K

Shliger: 1-1, RBI

Reyes: 4.1 IP, H, 3 R, 2 ER, 7 BB, 2 K

Coming Up Next: West Michigan is in Lansing next week, starting Tuesday at 6:05 p.m. ET.

(F/5) Bradenton Marauders 3, Lakeland Flying Tigers 1 (box)

What was supposed to be 14 innings of baseball down in Lakeland ended up being just five, which is probably a good thing since the Flying Tigers were getting no-hit. Despite the 2-1 loss on Sunday, Lakeland still won the series 3-2, with the rest of the doubleheader cancelled due to wet grounds.

Even though Lakeland had no hits through the five innings played in this game, the Flying Tigers led for a bit. An error, hit-by-pitch and walk loaded the bases in the bottom of the second, and a wild pitch brought Jesus Pinto home for a 1-0 lead.

Caleb Leys got the start, but he only went three innings. Three hits and no runs is a good day, but three walks led to a high-ish pitch count of 68. Jose Guzman took over in the fourth and immediately gave up runs. The inning went: leadoff double, single, popout, three-run homer.

Preston Howey got the fifth. He retired all four batters he faced, and then the rain came. Oh, well.

Leys: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 2 K

Coming Up Next: Lakeland is in Palm Beach next week, starting Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. ET. I’ll be at some of the games for some live coverage, so stay tuned!

The Royals will shut down starting pitcher Cole Ragans for a few days after he experienced discomfort with his elbow in his rehab start for Omaha. Manager Matt Quatraro addressed the setback with the media today, telling them, “He did not recover well from his start, so he’s gonna be shut down for a couple days.”

Quatraro said that Ragans experienced the same elbow symptoms he experienced in his last MLB start. The team will shut him down from throwing and reevaluate after a few days.

Ragans started on Saturday for the Storm Chasers and made 68 pitches over 4.1 innings, giving up just one run on a solo home run with a walk and three strikeouts. He last pitched for the Royals on May 6 when he went just three innings against the Guardians.

Ragans had struggled this year with a 4.84 ERA in eight starts, with 45 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. His walk rate has spiked signficantly, to 5.9 per-nine-innings this season. Injuries have plagued him during his career – he has twice undergone Tommy John surgery and he missed three months last year with a rotator cuff injury.

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Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jesus Sanchez has been hitting the ball well, and with Janson Junk on the mound for the Miami Marlins, the matchup should favor the slugger to keep his bat hot tonight.

Read on to see why in my Marlins vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks on Monday, May 25. 

Marlins vs Blue Jays predictions

Marlins vs Blue Jays best bet: Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits (-145)

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jesus Sanchez has been red-hot, eclipsing his hits total in 10 of his last 12 games, posting a .433 batting average in this stretch.

With a little extra motivation, taking on a Miami Marlins team that traded him last season, I expect him to keep his hot streak alive, especially with Janson Junk on the mound. 

Junk has struggled mightily over his last three starts, giving up 19 runs on 25 hits. This can be chalked up to a pedestrian fastball that ranks in the 45th percentile in velocity, as well as a putrid 18.7% whiff rate that ranks in the ninth percentile.

The righty regularly gets squared up, and Sanchez is batting just under .300 against right-handers.

COVERS INTEL: Sanchez ranks in the 92nd percentile in expected batting average this season.

Marlins vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Trey Yesavage has gone Over tonight’s 5.5 strikeout total in four straight starts, averaging 6.5 per. I expect him to do it again against a team with a 33% strikeout rate against the splitter, Yesavage’s put-away pitch.  

Overall, the Jays will win by multiple runs. There’s a lot of juice in the Jays’ moneyline, but the run line still has value as they’ve covered it in four of their last five victories.

Additionally, the pitching matchup should allow Toronto to keep Miami at bay while putting up offense against Junk.

Marlins vs Blue Jays SGP

• Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
• Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Blue Jays -1.5

Marlins vs Blue Jays home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+450)

The Jays offense has picked up recently, but we’re still waiting on consistent power, so we’ll make this a half-unit wager. 

Junk has surrendered six home runs over his last four starts and gives up fairly hard contact to lefties, who have 17 extra-base hits off him for a .888 opponents' OPS. 

The lefty in the Jays lineup I’m banking on to homer tonight is Daulton Varsho, who owns a 59% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer, which Junk throws most often to lefties.

Marlins vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Miami +140 | Toronto -160
• Run line: Miami +1.5 (-150) | Toronto -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Marlins vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 68% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Marlins vs Blue Jays and game info

Marlins vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Marlins vs Blue Jays weather

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With mirroring campaigns on either side of the spectrum, the Dodgers and Rockies meet at Dodger Stadium on Memorial Day. The home side aims to carry on the momentum from an outstanding road trip that saw them win seven of nine, taking two of three from the Brewers and Padres, and sweeping the Angels.

While as a team the Dodgers thrived away from home, Emmet Sheehan didn’t have the best of times in his game, even if the Dodgers ended up beating San Diego 5-4. All four of the Padres’ runs came against Sheehan courtesy of a couple of long balls as their lineup made him grind, though it was his shortest outing since his 2026 debut, when Sheehan failed to complete four innings against the Diamondbacks.

Sheehan will face one of the more harmless offenses away from home in the big leagues, a nice segue to touch on the stark difference between what the Dodgers’ lineup has produced away from Dodger Stadium and at home. As the visiting club, the Dodgers have a 128 wRC+, while 28 of the other 30 teams sit at 115 or below. Playing in front of their fans, the Dodgers rank a respectable but unimpressive 11th in wRC+ (107).

Facing the Rockies, the Dodgers have the ideal opponent to juice those home stats—Tyler Gordon will be the starter for Colorado, having allowed a two-homer game to Dalton Rushing the last time he faced the NL West leaders and reigning champs.

Monday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Rockies
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
• Start time: 6:10 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

It’s been an unfortunate yet somewhat predictable start to Nick Lodolo’s 2026 season since he missed over a month while dealing with blister issues. It forced him to tweak the way he approaches batters, looking at times to avoid throwing his slider too much and risking a recurrence of the problem. He also, obviously, missed a lot of time he’d otherwise have been building up to his best at the start of what was viewed as a crucial season for him, especially with Hunter Greene on the sidelines for months.

So far, he’s yielded 12 earned runs in just 15 IP across a trio of starts, though at times in his start on May 18th against the Phillies he looked a bit more like his old self. Still, he’s been plagued with the exact same problem as the entirety of the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff as a whole this year, as he’s walked an uncharacteristic 9 batters against just 11 Ks in that time.

For the record, he was fanning hitters at a 9.0 K/9 just last year with a stellar 1.8 BB/9. The Reds, quite frankly. aren’t going to go anywhere in 2026 if he can’t rediscover something close to that form.

He’ll get another shot to find it on Monday in New York as the Reds begin a series against the sputtering New York Mets. The Reds will do so with a rested staff, too, having had Thursday, Friday, and Sunday off thanks to scheduling and some weather postponements.

The Mets, meanwhile, will roll out burgeoning ace Nolan McLean, who has looked mostly brilliant through his first 58.0 IP of the season.

First pitch in the series opener is set for 4:10 PM ET.

Here’s how the Reds will line up for the opener, with Blake Dunn continuing to get run at leadoff and in CF, Eugenio Suarez in the lineup at DH, and hopefully a big pile of runs baked into it:

After a Sunday rainout in Cincinnati, the St. Louis Cardinals will battle the Milwaukee Brewers Monday afternoon. It would be tempting to say that the Cardinals are fighting the Brewers for first place in the NL Central, but this is supposed to just be a development year, so I won’t say what all of us are thinking. The Sunday rainout allowed St. Louis to reset their rotation which is what they hoped to achieve with the callup of Brycen Mautz on Sunday. It appears the the Cardinals will start Matthew Liberatore Monday against the Brewers as they’ll put Jacob Misiorowski on the mound. First pitch scheduled for 1:10pm in American Family Field.

First Pitch (CT):1:10 PM
TV: Twins.TV
Radio: TIBN/830 WCCO/102.9 The Wolf /Audacy App
Know Yo’ Foe: South Side Sox

Fresh off a sweep of one set of Sox, the Twins will look to do the same to a White pair this time around. Zebby Matthews is on the mound for the Twins, staying in the rotation after a couple solid outings, while Simeon Woods Richardson has been demoted to long relief for the time being.

They’ll be facing lefty Anthony Kay, who is looking strong after spending two years playing in Japan. Kay’s overall season numbers aren’t dazzling, but he’s been very strong in the month of May with 2.11 ERA in 21.1 innings and four starts. Guys are still getting on base, he’s allowed eight walks and four hit batters this month, so it’ll be up to the middle of the lineup to make sure those guys are coming home this time around.

Also of note: the White Sox currently hold the second AL Wild Card spot while the Twins hold the third. It’s too early in the season for that to particularly matter, but the Twins will likely hold the second spot if they win this series. The White Sox aren’t elite by any stretch, but they are a talented group with a lot of young talent that is moving in the right direction. Even if they don’t maintain a hold on playoff position, they have a young core and a clear path forward, more than they’ve been able to say in years.

I’m spending Memorial Day with some family so I won’t be around the comments, but I’ll see you post-game where Austin Martin will be coming off the first multi homer game of his career (if this comes true, I’ll include the lottery numbers in the recap as well).

Lineups

After an unexpected couple of weeks’ hiatus, I wanted to get back to looking at one promising Blue Jays prospect each week. Today, the Blue Jays’ intriguing 12th round selection in last year’s draft, who’s nearly matching the performance of his much more highly touted teammate, first rounder Jojo Parker.

Blaine Bullard was considered a top 3-5 round talent in the 2025 draft class, ranked #151 by Baseball America. His commitment to Texas A&M was regarded as pretty firm, though, and teams weren’t willing to risk taking him with a top 10 round pick and losing a valuable slot bonus. As a result, he slid out of the top 10 rounds entirely and the Jays were able to tab him 352nd overall. They scraped together $1.7m from money saved on Parker’s bonus and from a couple of later picks plus the allowed 5% bonus pool overage, roughly equivalent to the slot value for the 55th overall pick, and dared him to turn it down.

So far, they have to be happy that he couldn’t. Bullard is an elite athlete with easy plus speed. He’s been able to deploy that to steal 18 bags in 19 tries, one of the best success rates among all high volume runners in A ball. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his routes in centre field, and looks like he’ll ultimately be an above average to plus defender there.

The questions in his profile have all been about his future at the plate. He’s a switch hitter, but naturally left handed, and he’s far more advanced from that side of the plate. The scouting consensus was that he had the potential to be an average or somewhat better pure hitter, although he was seen as raw. He also faced questions about his ultimate power potential, with a lanky build and whippy swing that’s geared to spray grounders and line drives more than elevate for power.

So far, things have looked a little different than expected. Bullard has already launched five home runs in 167 PAs, using his wheels to add in eight doubles and a pair of triples. His .184 isolated slugging is well above the Florida State League average and third best among the 10 teenagers who have gotten regular run there. He’s also struck out a fair bit (30% of the time), though, and hasn’t produced many walks (8%, in a league where the median is 12%). It’s an effective overall package, as his .265/.337/.449 line has been 12% better than league average and in the 68th percentile among teenagers in full season ball, but it’s not quite the shape we expected.

Digging in a little, it appears that part of the difference is due to his switch hitting. All but two of his extra base hits have come from the left side, and his 27% and 9% walk and strikeout rates look a little more like it. He’s a more aggressive than average swinger, but his 68.7% in-zone swing rate and 27.4% chase rate suggest decent underlying plate discipline. He’s making contact inside the zone just 78% of the time, which is less than ideal, but not disastrous by any stretch and not necessarily a surprise for such a young player seeing professional pitching for the first time. When he does hit the ball, he’s delivering the low line drives expected, with a 5.5 degree launch angle, but he actually makes his best contact a little higher, with a 13.7 degree angle on hard hit balls. His 85mph average exit velocity and 27% hard hit rate from that side would both be near the bottom of the scale in MLB but they’re not bad for a teenager and suggest that with a little maturation he could get to the 40-grade raw power many scouts projected for him, with enough hard contact pulled for line drives or fly balls to get to all of it in games.

Things are less promising from the right. He’s struck out 11 times in just 24 PA without a walk, and has just 6 hits, two of them doubles. His 80.6mph average exit velocity is pretty dismal, as is his -4.5 degree launch angle. He’s more aggressive from that side, swinging 54% of the time, and he’s whiffing far too much both inside the zone (67.7% contact rate) and outside it (25%). It’s a small sample because Dunedin hasn’t happened to face that much left handed pitching yet, but it’s at least a yellow flag on his ability to switch hit longer term.

The overall picture is of a very talented player experiencing mixed success with an aggressive assignment to start his pro career. Many high schoolers, including for example last year’s 9th overall pick Steele Hall and Bullard’s draft-classmate Tim Piasentin, would start their first full pro season at the complex. Bullard was sent straight to a real league where he’s more than two years younger than his average competition, and has produced. His speed and defence look to be everything advertised, and his power production has exceeded expectations. He also has clear work to do on refining his approach and contact ability, though. That goes for both sides of the plate, and the gap on the right side is big enough to question whether he might ultimately wind up focusing on his natural left handed stroke full time. He remains one of the higher upside players in the system, with the potential to develop into a Lorenzo Cain or Coco Crisp type table setting centre fielder if everything comes together.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (33-20) open a series against the Colorado Rockies (20-34) in a meet of the first- and last-place teams in the NL West. The Dodgers are favored with a -327 moneyline compared to the Colorado Rockies' +259. Scheduled starting pitchers are Tanner Gordon for Colorado, with a 6.59 ERA, and Emmet Sheehan for Los Angeles, with a 4.93 ERA.

How to watch Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

• Date: Monday, May 25

• Time: 9:10 p.m. ET / 6:10 p.m. PT

• Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

• TV Channels: SportsNet LA, Rockies.TV

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Colorado Rockies: 20-34 (No. 5 in NL West)

• Los Angeles Dodgers: 33-20 (No. 1 in NL West)

Odds

• Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

• Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers -327 (73.3%) / Colorado Rockies +259 (26.7%)

• Over/Under: 9.0

Starting pitchers

Colorado Rockies: Tanner Gordon (0-0, ERA: 6.59, K: 30, WHIP: 1.50)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Emmet Sheehan (3-1, ERA: 4.93, K: 51, WHIP: 1.27)

Weather: 69°F at first pitch

Ballpark: Capacity: 56,000 | Roof: Open | Surface: Grass

Go Rays!

One of the biggest storylines of this month for the Nats has been the play of their catcher Keibert Ruiz. The Nats catcher is playing some of the best baseball in his career, combining great offense with a new found defensive game. It is no secret that Ruiz has struggled since signing his 8 year extension, so seeing this from the 27 year old is very encouraging.

In April, it was clear that Ruiz was laser focused on his defense, to the point where it was harming his hitting. He was grading out well defensively early in the season, but his hitting was putrid. Ruiz posted a dismal .480 OPS in April. However, he has totally flipped the switch in May, hitting .340 with a 1.049 OPS. Ruiz has done all this while maintaining his strong defense.

It feels like the Twins series early in May was a big turning point for him. Ruiz had a monster three for four day with 8 total bases. Ever since then, Ruiz has been absolutely smoking baseballs. Ruiz has been looking to do damage rather than just put the bat on the ball this month.

Of Keibert Ruiz’s 16 hits this month, 11 of them have gone for extra bases. Ruiz has a crazy 8 doubles this month, and it is not like he is turning singles into doubles with his speed. The Nats catcher is just smoking balls, especially to the pull side. That pull side thunder has been a staple of his game this season.

Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, nobody is pulling the ball in the air more than Keibert Ruiz. His air pull percentage is an insane 38.2%. Statistically, pulled flyballs are some of the most productive batted ball events for hitters. Some guys are not built to sell out for air pull, but if you can do that, it is a positive. That is exactly what Ruiz is doing right now.

He is not just pulling balls in the air in an attempt to hit a bunch of home runs though. Ruiz is yanking a ton of balls down the line for doubles as well. He is able to outslug his pedestrian exit velocity numbers because of this. A great example of this is his double the other night. If he hit this ball to center field, it would be a routine fly out. Instead, it was almost a home run that bounced off the wall and became a double.

Some of Ruiz’s underlying numbers are still in rough shape because of how bad that April was. His xWOBA is still only .261, but it has been going up steadily this month. His overall numbers for the season look very good though. Ruiz is hitting .252 with a .754 OPS, which is very good for a catcher playing quality defense. Sure, his on base percentage is only .269 because he has only walked twice all season, but he is making up for that with a very good .485 slugging percentage.

Pulling the ball more is a big reason for the jump in slug, but it is not everything. Ruiz is also hitting the ball a lot harder. His average exit velocity has gone from 86.2 MPH last year to 90.1 MPH this year. That is a massive jump, and it is allowing him to do a lot more damage.

The bat has been very impressive this month, but we have seen Ruiz get hot with the bat before. His defense has probably been the most impressive thing about his season. For most of his career, Ruiz has been one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball, with -22, -7 and -10 fielding run value the last three seasons. Under the tutelage of new catching coach Bobby Wilson, Ruiz has +3 FRV for the season, a truly stunning turnaround.

Ruiz’s blocking and framing have gotten so much better this season. He has 2 blocks above average and is in the 84th percentile as a framer. Last season he had -6 blocks above average and was a 4th percentile framer. Ruiz has also done a nice job controlling the running game, especially lately.

Among catchers with at least 60 plate appearances, Ruiz is tied for 10th in fWAR with 0.8 wins above replacement. That is a crazy turnaround for a guy who has posted negative fWAR in the last three seasons, mainly due to his defense. You have to give credit to Bobby Wilson, but also wonder what they were teaching Ruiz before.

If Keibert Ruiz can even post a .700ish OPS for the season while playing solid defense, that would be a massive win. With that kind of production, Ruiz would be playing up to, or even exceeding his contract. Coming into the season, that contract looked like an anchor, but who knows now.

We still need to see Ruiz keep this up. It has only been a month, so there’s still a decent chance that his bat falls off a cliff again. I actually think the defense is fairly likely to be at least average going forward. We are two months into the season, and I think the defensive improvements are real.

One other thing that is important to point out is how they are using Ruiz. The Nats are managing his playing time very well. He has been in a near even split with Drew Millas this year. In this hot run, Ruiz is getting a bit more playing time, but Millas still gets at least a couple starts a week. Under Davey Martinez, it felt like Ruiz was getting run into the ground. Ruiz is a competitive guy, and it seemed like Davey just asked Keibert if he was ready to play, and naturally he always said yes. 

Now, Ruiz is not putting too much strain on his body, and is being put in advantageous matchups. Blake Butera has really liked Ruiz against left handed pitchers this year, and it is easy to see why. The switch hitting Ruiz is hitting .333 with a .911 OPS as a right handed hitter. Ruiz starts just about every game against lefties, and some of them against righties.

There is still plenty of time for things to go haywire, and I am knocking on wood, but I love this version of Keibert Ruiz. He is a reliable defender, who is looking to do damage at the plate. Ruiz still has his warts, like never walking, but he has been an ultra-productive player for the Nats this month. Long may that continue for the Nats catcher.

Before we start with our usual fanfare, we do want to thank the men and women who have sacrificed their lives for this country to allow us to enjoy things like Memorial Day Weekend.

The week started auspiciously with Royce Lewis getting sent to St. Paul and ended with a sweep of the Red Sox. I just give out the facts folks; you can choose to connect the dots if you want. All joking aside, it was a much-needed week for the Twins as they went 5-1 against the bottom-feeders in the American League. The bullpen is still in a state of organized chaos, with Travis Adams becoming the 11th reliever to earn a save this season. We also saw some fruits of the Jorge Polanco trade as Gabriel Gonzalez made his debut with the major-league team on Friday, going 1-2 with two walks. Ironically, earlier in the week, Justin Topa, another player who came over in that deal, was DFA’d. The Twins now go to South Side Chicago to face the White Sox in a four-game series and could take second position in the AL Central. The team will wrap up May with a three-game series in Pittsburgh.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Zach Koenig takes us back to the miserable year of 2006.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Bobby Nightengale at the Star Tribune reveals how Twins rookie Andrew Morris has earned manager Derek Shelton’s trust.
• For all the grief that the Twins have earned this season, John Shipley at the Pioneer Press actually likes the team.
• Theo Tollefson at Zone Coverage checks in on Royce Lewis as he figures out his swing in St. Paul.

In the World of Baseball:

• The Rays have increased their lead to 4.5 games over the Yankees, who are tied with the Guardians for second in the AL standings. The A’s are a distant fourth place now, 4.0 games behind. The Twins have actually vaulted into the top six in the standings, despite owning a losing record, half a game behind the Chicago White Sox.
• It’s a bit of a tighter race in the National League, with the Dodgers 2.0 games behind Atlanta, while the Brewers and Padres are 1.5 games behind LA. You have to scroll down to the 11th team, the Philadelphia Phillies, to find the first team with a losing record.
• Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers has been throwing gas this season, with over 250 pitches over 100 mph. Brian Murphy at MLB.com looks at what the Miz thinks are the limits of his talent.-
• Ryan Hockensmith at ESPN documents how Aaron Judge’s freshman year at Fresno State set him up for success as a big leaguer.

Pre-season prognosticators were virtually unanimous: The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West. And they may well do so, but if they win the division it will not be on the strength of the season’s first 1/3. The Mariners completed their 54th game yesterday, an 8-6 loss to the Royals that left them 25-29 for the season.

How many games were the Mariners predicted to win in 2026? Here projection systems vary a touch, but let’s go with 93 as a reasonable median that conveniently is divisible by 3. That means Seattle was projected to average winning 31 games in each of the season’s three “thirds”.

Does a 25-29 start mean analysts were way, way off and in fact the Mariners are going to win only 75 games? Probably not. Does it mean analysts were exactly right and to make up for lost time Seattle will go 68-40 the rest of the way to finish with those 93 wins? Probably not.

Here’s what I would submit is the most mathematically sound way to look at it. If the Mariners are a 93 win team that masqueraded as a 25-29 squad for 2 months, you can reasonably expect them to play at a 93 win clip going forward. But this comes with a significant caveat: Some losses are already in the bank.

How many losses? Instead of going the projected 31-23 the Mariners won a whopping 6 fewer games than that pace. And those are 6 losses they can’t get back. Give Seattle its 93 win pace going forward and you get a big turnaround of a 62-46 record in the last 2/3 of the season. Don’t be surprised if the Mariners “get up on the deck” and go 62-46 the rest of the way.

The problem, for Seattle, is that this leaves them with a season record of 87-75, not the 93-69 originally predicted. And that is a huge difference in terms of what the bar might be for teams like the A’s, Rangers, even Astros (who are only 4.5 games back of 1st place thanks to the mediocrity of the division to date).

This is important because it suggests that while the standard needed to win the AL West was poised to be something like 24 games over .500, Seattle’s stumbling first 1/3 might bring that standard all the way down to more like 12 games over .500. The A’s need to go 60-49 (a .550 clip) the rest of the season in order to finish with 87 wins.

Of course none of this is set in stone or even etch-a-sketch. It’s still entirely possible Seattle could get sizzling hot and win 95 games or that they could remain in quicksand and finish with just 78 wins. Or Texas could turn out to be the team to beat, or who knows? This is why you play the games and just try to win as often as possible.

Is my “mathnalysis” the right way to look at the division going forward? Or if not what do you think is a better projection for “The State Of The AL West” going into the season’s second 1/3? The only analysis I can bet we will all agree on is this: beating Seattle these next 3 days will only help the A’s cause.

The first series of the Orioles’ season-longest 10-game homestand went reasonably well. The O’s took advantage of a reeling Tigers team to take two out of three games, though let’s not try to think about the fact that they were one strike away from losing the series.

Now the task gets much tougher with a rematch against the majors’ best team, the Rays, who swept the Orioles at Tropicana Field last week. Tampa Bay enters today with a stupendous 34-16 record, 12.5 games better than the Birds. And it’s only May.

The Rays will throw Baltimore-born ace lefty Shane McClanahan at the O’s in today’s opener. The good news is that the Orioles actually had some success against him last week, tagging him for four runs, tied for his season worst. The bad news is that the O’s still got destroyed in that game, 16-6, so McClanahan cruised to an easy win. Kyle Bradish gets the start for the Orioles. He pitched well in Tampa Bay last week, holding the Rays to two runs in 5.1 innings, but got no run support. Imagine that.

The Birds, as usual against a lefty, are stacking their lineup with righties, even those who can’t hit against southpaws (most notably Tyler O’Neill, who is 2-for-39 against lefties). The exception is Jackson Holliday, a lefty-swinger who’s getting the start today against McClanahan. He probably wouldn’t be if Coby Mayo were healthy, but the O’s third baseman is still sidelined with a back injury.

Today marks Cedric Mullins’ return to Baltimore for the first time since the O’s traded him last July. He’ll surely receive a standing ovation from the Camden Yards crowd and a nice video tribute on the Jumbotron. Best of luck, Cedric. I hope you have a great game individually while your team loses.

Orioles lineup:

LF Taylor Ward
DH Gunnar Henderson
C Adley Rutschman
1B Pete Alonso
3B Weston Wilson
CF Leody Taveras
SS Blaze Alexander
2B Jackson Holliday
RF Tyler O’Neill

RHP Kyle Bradish

Rays lineup:

LF Chandler Simpson
3B Junior Caminero
1B Jonathan Aranda
DH Yandy Díaz
2B Richie Palacios
CF Cedric Mullins
RF Victor Mesa Jr.
C Hunter Feduccia
SS Taylor Walls

LHP Shane McClanahan