Category: Baseball

Last fall, the Mariners fell one win short of winning the first American League pennant in club history. They returned this spring with high expectations, bringing back first baseman Josh Naylor and trading for on-base machine Brendan Donovan. They dropped 15 of their first 25 games, but are starting to heat up, winning six of their last seven games.

Kansas City Royals (12-19) vs. Seattle Mariners (16-16) at T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

Royals: 4.06 runs scored/game (23rd in MLB), 4.77 runs allowed/game (22nd)

Mariners: 4.19 runs scored/game (21st), 3.97 runs allowed/game (5th)

Donovan has been out since April 18 with a groin injury but is expected to return to action this weekend. The former Cardinals infielder is justifying the big trade so far, hitting .304/.437/.518 with three home runs in his first 18 games with the Mariners. Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh is not hitting home runs at the same rate as last year, when he lead the league with 60 home runs, but he is also heating up with five home runs in his last nine games.

J.P. Crawford has the fifth-best walk rate in baseball at 18.8 percent. Josh Naylor has the highest pop-up rate in baseball at 27 percent. He stole a career-high 30 bases last year, and is 4-of-6 in steal attempts this year. Luke Raley is hitting .283/.340/.630 in home games.

Bryan Woo was an All-Star for the first time last year, earning Cy Young votes after putting up a 2.94 ERA in 30 starts. He had his worst start of the year his last time out, giving up seven runs and four dingers in three innings against the Cardinals. He throws a 95 mph fastball half the time, mixing in a sinker, sweeper, slider, and occasionally a change.

Emerson Hancock has yet to make 20 starts in a season in his career, but he may be having a breakthrough this year at age 27. He tossed six no-hit innings in his first start of the year, and has yet to give up more than three runs in an outing. He is right behind Woo with the sixth-lowest walk rate in baseball.

Luis Castillo is starting to show signs of rust at age 33. He gave up seven runs in his last start with a noticeable drop in velocity, leaving questions on what to do with him when Bryce Miller returns to the rotation. Bobby Witt Jr. is just 1-for-16 (.063) against Luis Castillo in his career.

Note that Friday night’s game will air exclusively on Apple TV with Wayne Randazzo (play-by-play), Dontrelle Willis (analyst), and Heidi Watney (on-field reporter) on the call.

The Mariners have the third-best bullpen ERA at 3.31. Andrés Muñoz has the sixth-best strikeout rate in baseball. He has converted six of seven saves this year, and five of the eight runs he has given up this year came in one outing. Matt Brash has yet to give up an earned run this year, and opponents are hitting just .091 against him, but left his last outing on Wednesday with side discomfort. Jose A. Ferrer has a reverse split this year, with lefties hitting .375 against him.

The Mariners are still expected to be one of the leading contenders for a pennant this season, with a strong pitching staff, a lockdown closer, and one of the best home run hitters in baseball. The Royals need to get back on track, but they missed an opportunity to take a series in Sacramento, and it doesn’t get any easier in Seattle.

The Michigan Wolverines’ baseball team got off to a slow start in Big Ten play thanks to a front-loaded schedule, but they are now one of the best teams in the conference. Michigan is currently 27-17 overall and 12-9 in Big Ten play. After a 1-5 start to conference play, the Wolverines have won their last five series, and every remaining opponent is behind them in the standings.

Next up: Maryland on the road.

Getting to know Maryland

Maryland is struggling this season, currently sitting with a 22-23 overall record and a 6-15 mark in Big Ten play. Despite the poor record, Maryland has a pretty strong lineup offensively. The Terrapins currently have five players hitting above .300 — Brayden Martin, Ty Kaunas, David Mendez, Paul Jones II and Jordan Crosland.

Martin leads the team with an exceptional .361 batting average. He doesn’t hit for a ton of power — he has just two homers on the year — but he has driven in 33 runs. Meanwhile, Kaunas is hitting .315 and has some more pop in the bat, as he has launched five homers and knocked in 37 RBIs.

Mendez is certainly one of the best bats in this lineup, as he is tied for first on the team with the most RBIs at 38. He also has seven long balls on the year and is hitting .312. Jones has good pop as well, as he has hit six homers and 31 RBIs so far this season to go along with his .306 average.

Perhaps the most dangerous bat in the Maryland lineup is Crosland. He is leading the Terrapins this season with 10 homers, and he is tied with Mendez for most RBIs with 38. He is currently hitting .305.

The Terrapins have done a solid job scoring runs this year, but pitching hasn’t been able to hold up. It’s hard to pinpoint who Michigan will face on the mound this weekend, but it is likely that two of the three starters will be Lance Williams and Nic Morlang.

Morlang has the most starts this season for Maryland (10), pitching 35.2 innings while giving up 30 earned runs on 54 hits (7.57 ERA). There are a couple other players with more starts than Williams, but somehow Williams’ 7.43 ERA is the best that Maryland has among pitchers who have consistently started this year. He has pitched 46 innings and has given up 38 earned runs on 53 hits. That should tell you how much Maryland has struggled this season when it comes to finding consistent pitching.

Series schedule

• Game 1: May 1, 6 p.m. ET, B1G+
• Game 2: May 2, 2 p.m. ET, B1G+
• Game 3: May 3, 1 p.m. ET, B1G+

After going 1-2 against the Toronto Blue Jays, the so-called “Chad Sox” sit at .500 four games into their 135-game season. After sweeping the Red Sox at the start of the March, things have not gone well for Houston. Their record stood at 5-2 then, and is now just 12-20 to Boston’s 12-19. Hey, the Sox are the better team in this matchup! The Astros have suffered an 8-game losing streak to get to this level, like the Mets and the Phillies. Boston meanwhile has achieved their record without a long steak but merely through frustrating play in four-game (or so) cycles.

With the Red Sox sitting 7 games under .500, they need to get as many wins as possible against the (other) struggling teams. A dropped series against the Blue Jays looms large. The sweep at the hands of the Astros looms large further back. The loss of Garrett Crochet for at least two weeks means they need to hold things together for 15 days, hopefully claw a couple games back, and then try and go on a run when their ace returns.

The Red Sox are likely to call up Jake Bennett. The 6’6” southpaw was acquired from the Washington Nationals for Luis Perales. SoxProspects describes him as a “[p]otential backend starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.” Although in five starts (21.0 innings) he’s put up a 0.86 ERA for the WooSox. And he’s had several months working with the Boston pitching think tank. He missed 2024 with Tommy John Surgery and has improved as he’s gotten further away from that setback. SoxProspects Andrew Parker has a bit more on the likely Friday starter.

The Friday starter we do know is Houston’s Mike Burrows. A right-hander, Burrows has been up and down this season. His season ERA is north of six. Of course when he faced Boston on April 1, he allowed just 2 runs over 5.0 innings. He’s struck out 33 and walked 12 over 31.2 innings. He also held the Yankees to 2 runs in 5.0 last time out so who can say what offenses are good.

Spencer Arrighetti is a right-hander who has made three starts this season. Over 18 innings he’s held the Rockies, Guardians, and Yankees to a total of 4 runs combined. Plus 21 strikeouts and 9 walks. Luckily the stopper, Connelly Early, is paired against him. Early is coming off a 6.2 inning win against the Orioles. The initial Chad Sox game. His only runs allowed were two solo shots.

Sunday, the Astros get to be the TBD team while the Red Sox send Ranger Suárez to the mound. Suárez was the bright spot for the Red Sox pitching against Toronto, throwing 8.0 scoreless, 1-hit, 10 strikeout innings in Canada. Aside from the outing against the Yankees, he’s been on a roll for the last month. Against the Jays, Tigers, and Cardinals he tossed 22 scoreless innings. A little more of that and some help from the bats and this looks like the game Boston has the best chance of winning. Of course, his season debut was against these Astros and was a 4.1 inning, 4 run outing.

Yordan Alvarez is hitting .356 with 12 home runs.

Former potential trade target and bad defender Isaac Paredes is at .253/.339/.384 with 3 homers.

Jose Altuve is buzzing along with a .250/.349/.393 slash line.

Christian Walker has bounced back after a rough 2025 for a .300/.371/.564 performance.

Overall, the Astros are struggling and hopefully that continues for a least three more days, if not months.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, May 1: Mike Burrows (6.25 ERA / 5.14 FIP) vs. TBD (— ERA / — FIP)

Saturday, May 2: Spencer Arrighetti (2.00 ERA / 3.67 FIP) vs. Connelly Early (2.84 ERA / 4.60 FIP)

Sunday, May 3: TBD (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Ranger Suárez (3.09 ERA / 3.35 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, May 1: 7:10 PM on NESN+

Saturday, May 3: 4:10 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, May 3: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

A look back at the first baseball month of the season, with all of April plus five days of March.

March/April stats

20-11 record
167 runs scored (5.39 per game, 4th in MLB)
101 runs allowed (3.26 per game 1st in MLB)
.715 pythagorean win percentage (22-9)

The usual caveat

For most of baseball history, the season ran from April to September, but over time the schedule has expanded on both ends, now regularly starting in March and ending in October. This year’s opening day — regular opening day, not counting any special international trips — of March 25 was the earliest start to a season in major league history.

Those loose ends at both ends of the schedule leads to oddities in splits, such that April numbers will also include March. Same for September, which will also include the few games in October as well. So while we might say “April” here at times, just know it also includes March.

The Dodgers’ first-ever game in March came way back in 1998, and in their history have now played 33 regular season March games. They won four of five March games to open this season, and are 24-9 (.727).

For starters

Even without Blake Snell — who started the season on the injured list with shoulder fatigue and is two minor league starts into a rehab assignment — the Dodgers rotation carried the staff in the first month of the season, and provided a stable base, much like the final two months of 2025 plus the postseason.

Dodgers starters in April averaged 5.85 innings per start, tops in the majors, the the rotation was second in ERA (2.83) and xERA (3.51), and fifth in strikeout-minus-walk rate (15.8 percent). The Dodgers got 20 starts lasting at least six innings, .. 4 (Tigers, Royals, Mariners 16) more than any other team.

Shohei Ohtani, who has lasted six innings in all five of his starts, has a 0.60 ERA and 2.23 xERA, both of which are best in the National League among pitchers with at least 30 innings. He finished the month one inning shy of qualifying for the leaderboard. Same for Justin Wrobleski, who has a 1.50 ERA in his 30 innings, including two runs allowed in 26 innings in his four starts.

Tyler Glasnow is off to an excellent start with a 2.56 ERA and 2.40 xERA in a team-leading 38 2/3 innings, with 47 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a 2.87 ERA and 4.02 xERA in his six starts and 37 2/3 innings, but also only has two wins as the Dodgers have scored 11 total runs with him still in the game.

Powering up

Max Muncy was the Dodgers’ best hitter in the first month of the season, hitting .287/.374/.594 and ranking third in the National League in both OPS (.968) and wRC+ (166). Muncy led the team with 23 runs scored, matching May 2019 and May 2021 for his most runs in a month in his career.

In 2025, Muncy famously did not hit a home run until the final day of April, but this year got off to a much hotter start, leading the team with nine home runs so far. The first eight of those home runs were solo shots, and Muncy’s 11 runs batted in are tied for the fewest in any month in baseball history with at least nine home runs, along with Spencer Torkelson in August 2023 with the Detroit Tigers.

Dalton Rushing was off to a blazing start, hitting .348/.423/.848 and second on the team in both home runs (seven) and RBI (17) despite playing in only 15 games. Rushing’s 52 plate appearances are the fewest in any month in Dodgers history with at least seven home runs.

Andy Pages was the only Dodger to play all 31 games in April, including 30 starts. He led the team in hits (36) and runs batted in (25), all while hitting .321/.366/.518 with a 145 wRC+ and holding down the fort in center field.

Ohtani two ways

That guy with the 0.60 ERA in 30 innings on the mound, Shohei Ohtani, had a down month at the plate for him, but relative to the rest of baseball he’s still quite productive on offense, hitting .273/.406/.491 with a 144 wRC+ and six home runs.

He batted 139 times in March/April and faced 119 batters as a pitcher. His 258 combined plate appearances made this the second-busiest month of Ohtani’s career, trailing only the 268 PA in September/October 2022. As a way to get some semblance of rest, in two of Ohtani’s pitching starts so far he did not hit.

Fizzling final week

While the Dodgers are at or near the top of most offensive statistics — their 126 wRC+ is tops in the majors — their end to April left a lot to be desired, following a 15-4 start with a 5-7 finish. In the final nine games of the month, the Dodgers scored three or fewer runs five times. They lost two one-run games to the Marlins to finish off the month, a series in which the Dodgers trailed entering the ninth inning in all three games.

“I don’t think we’re collectively swinging the bats the way we were early,” manager Dave Roberts said after the final game of the month. “The last 10 days it hasn’t been synced up.”

“We’ve kinda been going through it as a group,” said first baseman Freddie Freeman, who hit .259/.328/.414 with a 107 wRC+ in the first month. “As an offense, the last few games haven’t been where we wanted to be.”

Kyle Tucker had a walk-off single to win Monday’s game, but was otherwise underwhelming in his first month with the Dodgers, hitting just .241/.331/.371 with a 100 wRC+.

The month ahead

The Dodgers play 28 games in May, with three Thursdays off, and have a stretch of 13 game days in a row from May 8-20. Thirteen of those games are at Dodger Stadium, with 15 road games. After playing nine interleague games in March/April, the Dodgers in May play six games against American League teams — at Astros from May 4-6 and at Angels from May 15-17.

For all the consternation about the Mariners’ slow start in April, they wound up finishing the month with a .500 record thanks to two straight series wins on the road. Despite sitting a game and a half behind the A’s in the division, FanGraphs gives Seattle coin flip odds to win the AL West (54.4%) and a 78.0% chance of returning to the postseason, the second highest playoff odds in the AL. All that bad luck that was skewing their early season results has started to correct itself. Surely nothing could go wrong during a big weekend series celebrating a franchise legend against a historically pesky team, right?

Note: now that the calendar has flipped to May, I’ll be using 2026 stats where appropriate in these previews.

The Royals came into this season with an eye towards building off their two successful seasons in 2024 and ‘25. They had their one surprise postseason appearance a few years ago but it seemed like they were on the verge of breaking out of their rebuilding cycle if they could get one or two of their youngsters to take the next step forward. Unfortunately, the team has really stumbled out of the gate. A sweep of the Angels was their first series win since the first week of the season and an eight-game losing streak a few weeks ago really hurt their April record. They’re tied with the Red Sox for the second worst record in the AL, but because no one has run away with the AL Central, just 3 ½ games back in their division.

The biggest reason why the Royals have struggled to really break through these past few years is because they haven’t been able to build a complete lineup around Bobby Witt Jr. Maikel Garcia took a huge step forward last year, but Vinnie Pasquantino hasn’t been able to recreate the magic of his rookie campaign. Those two are solid sidekicks to Witt; the bigger problem is the bottom of the lineup has been an absolute black hole. There was some hope that a breakout from Jac Caglianone and average production from Isaac Collins in the outfield would help lengthen the lineup, but neither has impressed this year. I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the heart of the team, Salvador Perez. He’s still chugging along, though it seems like age has really caught up to him this year. His eventual replacement, Carter Jensen, has shown flashes of top-end talent and has been the team’s best hitter so far.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Cole Ragans had a really weird season last year. His peripherals were better than they’ve ever been in his career — his strikeout rate was all the way up at 38.1% — but his ability to actually prevent runs was pretty terrible; his ERA was more than two runs higher than his FIP, xERA, and xFIP. Then, in June, he was sidelined with a shoulder injury, though he was able to make it back onto the mound by late September. The start to this season has been a big mixed bag for Ragans. He’s had three solid starts interspersed with three absolute clunkers, and those blowouts are really weighing heavily on his season statline. Ragans’s best pitch is his four-seam fastball and he has a trio of excellent secondary pitches — a changeup and a pair of devastating breaking balls — to help him earn tons of swings and misses. 

Seth Lugo throws the kitchen sink — and the bathtub too, for good measure. I have eight pitches listed in the table above, but I combined what Statcast calls his curveball and a “slow curve” into one line. And really, his sweeper-slurve is actually one pitch that he varies the speed and shape of based on the situation. That deep repertoire has served him well since making the transition to the starting rotation in 2023. He struggled with his normally excellent command last year, leading to a bunch of additional walks and home runs, but has seemed to have gotten over those issues to start this year. Despite mediocre raw stuff and advancing age, he’s been able to keep batters off balance because they often have no idea what pitch is coming next.

Kris Bubic changed the trajectory of his career back in 2023 by adding a much needed third secondary pitch to his repertoire, a slider in this case. He only lasted three starts that season before succumbing to an elbow injury that wiped out most of that year and the next. After a brief stint as a high-leverage reliever in ‘24, he returned to the starting rotation last year with a brand-new arsenal; gone was his curveball and in its place was a fantastic sweeper alongside the slider that fueled his breakout. His changeup looked a lot different too, and that offspeed pitch has been critical in his efforts to keep right-handed batters at bay. A shoulder injury cut his season short last year but he’s been healthy to start this year.

The Big Picture:

The Athletics just finished a series win over the Royals earlier this week and will host the Guardians over the weekend. The Rangers have only won one series since sweeping the M’s back in early April, but they’ve managed to hover around .500 for the last few weeks. Texas lost its series against the Yankees this week and will travel to Detroit this weekend. The Astros split a double-header with the Orioles yesterday, avoiding a sweep in that series; they travel to Boston next. All the fun of the Angels start to the season has quickly disappeared; they were just swept by the White Sox and have now lost 10 of their last 11 games. Los Angeles will host the miserable Mets this weekend.

Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees’ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the season’s final month upon us, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.

First Place: Cleveland Guardians (16-16)

Top Position Player: Daniel Schneemann (1.3 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Parker Messick (1.3 fWAR)

The Guardians sit atop what has to date been the weakest division in baseball with a .500 record and without having strung together more than two consecutive wins throughout the entirety of the month of April. That has been less a testament to the Guardians’ performance, though, and more to the fact that the entire division has, well, grossly underperformed expectations in the early going.

Over the past few years, Cleveland has not exactly been known for their offensive prowess, and this year is no exception. Their 3.84 runs/game sits last in the American League, and their 92 OPS+ ranks better than only the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Steven Kwan (73 wRC+) and Bo Naylor (-1) have been absolutely dreadful, José Ramírez has been stealing bases but hitting for less power (12 SB without being caught, but just a 115 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR). Should these veterans begin hitting like the back of their baseball cards, though, the emergence of utilityman Daniel Schneemann (167 wRC+), the strong start of rookie Chase DeLauter (130), and the high potential of recently-promoted top prospect Travis Bazzana mean that the Guardians could find their offense in a different place when the summer comes.

What has allowed Cleveland to fight their way to the top of the division so far has been the top of their rotation, as the trio of Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, and Parker Messick (who flirted with a no-hitter) have each posted sub-3.00 ERAs, while Tanner Bibee has been a veritable innings eater alongside them. While their pitching staff has been let down by a shaky bullpen, their underlying metrics suggest that they’ve been let down by some bad luck, and will ultimately face some positive regression.

Second Place: Detroit Tigers (16-16)

Top Position Player: Kevin McGonigle (1.6 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (1.6 fWAR)

The only team in the AL Central with a positive run differential (+9), the Tigers begin the month of May in a bit of a precarious position. Rookie shortstop Kevin McGonigle (164 wRC+) leads an offense that is tied with the Angels for third in the AL in OPS+ (106) and in the Junior Circuit’s top half in runs/game (4.44), but which has seen injuries to Javier Báez, Zach McKinstry, and Parker Meadows. On the flip side, though, their defense has been absolutely terrible. Their -15 Outs Above Average is even with the Mariners for the worst in the majors, and while Defensive Runs Saved isn’t quite as low on them, their -2 DRS is tied for the AL’s third-worst. To put it bluntly, there’s a real case to be made that Gleyber Torres is their best defender.

Fortunately, Detroit has one of the deepest rotations in baseball. Tarik Skubal is an early contender for his third-straight AL Cy Young, although strong starts by Yankees starters Cam Schlittler and Max Fried and by Angels starter José Soriano, combined with his 1.104 OPS the third time through the order, puts him in a bit of a hole early on. Behind him, Framber Valdez gives the team one of the league’s best 1-2 punches. Injuries to Casey Mize and Justin Verlander, however, have sapped some of the depth, and it’s debatable whether the Tigers have the bullpen arms to engage in the “pitching chaos” that they did back in 2024.

Third Place: Chicago White Sox (14-17)

Top Position Player: Colson Montgomery (1.2 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Davis Martin (1.2 fWAR)

It’s rare for a 14-17 team to be one of the season’s darlings, but here we are. Just two years after losing 121 games, Chicago looks like a fun team again. Much of this has to do with the performance of first baseman Munetaka Murakami, who has exceeded all expectations in his first month in the United States. His dozen homers thus far are tied with Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez for the MLB lead.

Between Murakami, shortstop Colson Montgomery, and third baseman Miguel Vargas, Chicago has its most dangerous middle of the order since their 2021 AL Central division winners — i.e., before everything all came crashing down. Atop the rotation, meanwhile, Davis Martin has been dominant, Sean Burke has been effective, and Erick Fedde has been capable. Thanks to the top of their lineup and rotation, Chicago has been able to put together two three-game winning streaks this season (including a sweep over the Blue Jays) and win 8 of their past 12 games.

So why does The Athletic still rank Chicago as the 30th team in this week’s power rankings? Like most bad teams trying to emerge from rock bottom, the White Sox have some solid players, but lack depth. Edgar Quero (35 wRC+) and Luisangel Acuña (28 wRC+) have combined for 164 plate appearances, and Andrew Benintendi has shown that last year’s above-average performance may have been a dead cat bounce, as he now sits at a 72 wRC+. Anthony Kay and his 6.12 ERA is fourth on the team in innings pitched with 25.0.

Chicago is trending in the right direction, but barring divine intervention — hello, Leo — they’re likely to find themselves back in the cellar of the division soon enough.

Fourth Place: Minnesota Twins (14-18)

Top Position Player: Byron Buxton/Trevor Larnach/Ryan Jeffers (0.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Joe Ryan (1.1 fWAR)

After their fire sale last season, the Minnesota Twins came into 2026 with absolutely no expectations, even if they themselves refuse to admit it. And so, naturally, they began the season on a tear: after shutting out the Red Sox 6-0 on April 14th, they were 11-7, sitting in first place in the AL Central. Since then, though, they’ve fallen down to Earth, losing 11 out of their last 14 games — including sweeps at the hands of the Reds and Rays — to plummet all the way down to fourth place.

The calling card of this Minnesota team has been their starting rotation. Joe Ryan (3.76 ERA, 3.10 FIP) and Taj Bradley (2.85 ERA, 4.03 FIP) have allowed them to withstand the loss of Pablo López, who underwent Tommy John surgery in February and will miss the season. If Bailey Ober (3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP) continues to bounce back from a subpar 2025, then the Twins might have just enough rotation depth to compete in what is clearly a lackluster division.

That’s assuming they can patch the holes in their lineup and bullpen, of course. Offensively, Ryan Jeffers (155 wRC+), Austin Martin (163 wRC+), and Trevor Larnach (138 wRC+) have been able to make up for Byron Buxton’s comparatively slow start (106 wRC+ until yesterday’s three-hit day). But if Minnesota truly wants to compete, they need Buxton to both stay healthy and be the five-tool player that has made baseball fans frustrated by his inability to stay healthy for 12 years now, and they need to find some more offense at the hot corner (Royce Lewis currently has an 88 wRC+) and the cold corner (Kody Clemens, the team’s most common first baseman, has an 87 wRC+ and is more known for his defensive versatility than his bat, anyway). In the bullpen, Anthony Banda and Taylor Rogers either need to lock in and play more akin to their career norms, or else drop down in the bullpen pecking order considerably.

Last Place: Kansas City Royals (12-19)

Top Position Player: Bobby Witt Jr. (1.7 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Seth Lugo (1.2 fWAR)

Just two years ago, the Kansas City Royals won 86 games, gave the eventual AL champion Yankees a run for their money in the ALDS, and looked to all the world a team on the rise. Now, though, they seem to be a team stuck in neutral, clearly scuffling but without any obvious path to improvement beyond hoping that players begin to turn their seasons around.

Offensively, pretty much everyone has been struggling, from first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and his 63 wRC+ to superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., whose 117 wRC+ is far from bad, but ever further from the 169 he put up in 2024 and a step down from his 130 last season. Captain Salvador Perez is technically on pace for the 10th 20-homer season of his excellent career, but beyond the five dingers, he’s been abysmal as he appraches his 36th birthday with a 54 wRC+. Rookie catcher Carter Jensen (124 wRC+) and second-year outfielder Jac Caglianone (103 wRC+, up from a 46 in his rookie campaign) have been the two big positives so far, as the team struggles to figure itself out. Furthermore, the season-ending injury to Jonathan India opens up a massive hole at second, for while he had been struggling, his replacement Michael Massey isn’t exactly an improvement.

On the mound, Seth Lugo looks much like the pitcher who was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young back in 2024, with a 2.63 ERA across his first six starts, and Michael Wacha has continued to pitch better in his 30s than he did in his 20s (3.13 ERA, 3.96 FIP). Behind them, though, question marks abound. Opening Day starter Cole Ragans is an absolute mess (5.00 ERA, 5.42 FIP), 2025 rookie standout Noah Cameron has been bad (5.40 ERA, 6.32 FIP), and the entire bullpen aside from Daniel Lynch IV (0.79 ERA in 11.1 innings) and Nick Mears (2.45 ERA in 11.0 innings) has been a veritable hit parade.

The trade between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays in November 2022 didn’t make a lot of headlines. Part of that is because people – including those who live in Florida – don’t pay all that much attention to the two Florida teams. More importantly, the trade didn’t involve any headline talent. In exchange for two low-minors players, the Rays sent pitcher JT Chargois to the Marlins along with another minor leaguer in infielder Xavier Edwards.

Chargois has already come and gone, but Edwards is emerging as a star player. In 2025, he spent time at both second base and shortstop, mostly playing well at the former but was lacking at the latter. He didn’t show much power but got on base at a .343 clip and stole 27 bases.

This season, he’s been the team’s full-time second baseman and his defense has solidified. He has also stepped up his offensive game. His on-base percentage of .432 leads the National League, and while he’ll likely never be a huge power threat, his slugging percentage is up almost 100 points from 2025.

You know how we’ve talked about the concept of a “cleanup hitter” changing over the years? Despite not hitting a lot of home runs, Edwards has been batting fourth in the Marlins’ lineup, and it’s worked out well so far.

He’s also shown excellent taste in role models:

This being the Marlins, there’s a strong chance that Edwards gets traded in a couple of seasons as he approaches free agency. But for now, the Marlins can enjoy their young star!

Non-Phillies thought

A few comparisons have been made between this year’s Flyers and the 2022 Phillies: After several years missing the playoffs, the team finally qualified for the postseason thanks to a late surge, and in the first round, took down a favored team with multiple older stars on the roster.

Much like the 2022 Phillies, the Flyers will be underdogs in their next series. However, unlike those Phillies who took on the Atlanta Braves, they don’t have the additional motivation of playing a traditional rival. And there’s also the definite possibility that the team is happy just to have gotten this far. But sometimes, the “playing with house money” team can be the most dangerous.

Saturday is setting up to be a massive sports day in Philadelphia with the Phillies in action along with Sixers (game seven!), and Flyers playoff games. And there’s also the Kentucky Derby. While I’m sure this year’s race won’t compare to the 2004 edition, it’s still fun to watch.

I will have to set up multiple TVs to catch all the action, although my last multiple TV night was on October 9th, and that went…poorly.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The Phillies’ first game at Truist Park was June 5, 2017. In the first inning of that game, a home run was hit by Tommy Joseph. (Nobody answered that one correctly)

This week’s question: In the first series the Phillies played at LoanDepot Park (nee Marlins Park) in June 2012, they lost all three games. Name two of the three losing pitchers from that series.

Additional thought about the series

Under Rob Thomson: Phillies play poorly for eight of nine innings in a game and lose.

Under Don Mattingly: Phillies play poorly for seven of nine innings in a game, but one of those good innings is the ninth and they win.

After how poorly most of the season has gone, we needed a day like Thursday where the team pulled off two ninth inning comebacks. (With Chase Shugart earning both wins, exactly like they drew it up.)

However, LoanDepot Park has often been a place where good Phillies vibes go to die. The Phillies’ worst years at the Marlins’ stadium seem to happen when they’re expected to be good and the Marlins are expected to be bad. The Marlins weren’t expected to be playoff contenders this season, but they are in second place (albeit with a losing record) and are coming off a series win over the Dodgers.

Perhaps the three game lead in the standings will cause the script to flip, and the Phillies will be the underdog team that hurts the Marlins’ chances?

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Philadelphia has turned a corner of late, winning three straight games and four of the last five.

With Zack Wheeler set to take the mound, my Phillies vs. Marlins predictions expect the road team to extend its winning streak in Miami.

Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 1.

Who will win Phillies vs Marlins today: Phillies moneyline (-120)

Zack Wheeler showed little rust in his season debut, holding a top-tier Atlanta Braves offense to two runs over five innings while striking out six. The velocity was high, indicating he’s already close to 100%.

If Wheeler is on his game, he doesn’t need much support to grind out wins – and he should get it against the Miami Marlins.

Eury Perez has allowed at least three runs in four of six starts and ranks Bottom-5 on the slate at limiting fly balls and hard contact. That’s cause for concern against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies offense that sits sixth in hard hit rate.

COVERS INTEL: Eury Perez has allowed an alarming 14.9% barrel rate, putting him in the seventh percentile league-wide.

Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Over 8.0 (+100)

The Phillies are heating up at the dish. They have scored 36 runs over their past seven, good for an average of 5.14 per game.

Their hard hit numbers against righties are strong and Perez is giving up a lot of quality contact. This is a good setup for them to build on strong recent production.

Miami should struggle early against Wheeler, but they’re unlikely to run him into the ground in just his second start. With a taxed Phillies bullpen behind him after Thursday’s double-header, there’s a clear path to late offense.

Phillies vs Marlins opening odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia (-130) | Miami (+110)
• Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+135) | Miami +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-1.5)

Phillies vs Marlins trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

How to watch Phillies vs Marlins and game info

Phillies vs Marlins latest injuries

Phillies vs Marlins weather

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David Stearns has removed any cloud that might have been hanging over Mets manager Carlos Mendoza amid the team's 10-21 start.

"We know our record is not what we want, and we know we are capable of more," Stearns told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "We don’t view this as a manager problem, and we don’t intend to make a change."

Regarding Stearns, DiComo notes that owner Seve Cohen has given "at least some assurances" that his job as president of baseball operations is safe.

Mendoza is in the third and final guaranteed year of his contract, with the Mets holding a team option for the 2027 season.

Stearns' above comments on Mendoza echo ones he gave on April 17, when he expressed confidence in the third-year manager while disagreeing with the notion that there should be more scrutiny on Mendoza.

"No. I think Mendy is doing a really good job," Stearns said. "I think he's putting our players in position to succeed. He's enormously consistent. So, no, I don't agree with that."

Asked how Mendoza was putting players in position to succeed, Stearns elaborated.

"I think both in terms of how he's managing in the clubhouse, how he's getting guys to the right pockets -- whether it's matchups out of the bullpen, the right matchups in games," Stearns explained. "I think he's doing a good job."

Mendoza has a 182-173 career record at the helm of the Mets.

In his first season in 2024, Mendoza oversaw a team that finished 89-73 and made a run to Game 6 of the NLCS.

In 2025, with the Mets' pitching staff largely ineffective in the second half of the season, New York tumbled all the way out of a playoff spot while finishing 83-79.

Stearns hired Mendoza in November of 2023, shortly after his stint leading the front office began. 

Daniel Palencia news:

Friday notes…

• STREAKING: The Cubs have won eight straight home games, the entire last seven-game homestand and the last game of the previous one. The last time a Cubs team won eight straight at home was Sept. 12-30, 2017. That streak was snapped when they lost to the Reds, 3-1, on the final day of the season, and all but one of their starters were lifted after one or two plate appearances. The last time any Cubs team won nine straight home games was Aug. 18-Sept. 2, 2017. The franchise record is 18, set during the team’s overall team record 21-game winning streak in 1935 (the first 18 of those 21 straight wins). (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• SCORING FIRST: The Cubs are 7-0 when they have scored first at home. They are 12-5 in all games in which they scored first. In 14 of the 17 games, they did so in the first three innings: four in the first, seven in the second and three in the third. Last year, the Cubs were 33-8 at home when they scored first and 17-23 when they did not. They won 15 straight when they scored first at home from May 5 through July 19. They had two nine-game winning streaks when they scored first on the road. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• GETTING ON BASE: The Cubs are first among all 30 teams in on-base percentage, at .353. The Diamondbacks are 27th, at .308. The only teams lower are the Phillies, .302; Giants, .293; and Mets, .289. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• HIT PREVENTION: The Cubs are tied for fifth in fewest hits allowed per nine innings, at 7.6. The Diamondbacks are tied with two teams for 25th at 9.1. The only teams worse are the Nationals, 9.2; Orioles, 9.3; and Phillies, 10.1. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: Andre Dawson and Hector Villanueva homered off future Cubs broadcaster Jim Deshaies as part of a five-run first inning and the Cubs went on to defeat the Astros 11-8 at Wrigley Field. It happened 35 years ago today, Wednesday, May 1, 1991.

Cubs lineup:

Diamondbacks lineup:

Colin Rea, RHP vs. Zac Gallen, RHP

Colin Rea was going along just fine when the Dodgers torched him pretty good over the weekend.

That out of the way, Rea has been solid this year (and was last year, too). I don’t think one bad start erases all the good things Rea has done for the Cubs rotation.

Rea started vs. Arizona April 18, 2025 at Wrigley Field and allowed one run in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts, probably on a pitch limit (threw 69 nice pitches). That was the crazy game where the D-backs scored 10 runs in the eighth but the Cubs came back and won anyway.

Ketel Marte is 4-for-6 with two homers off Rea, so it might be good to hold him down today.

Remember when Bob Nightengale said Zac Gallen was going to sign with the Cubs? According to this Awful Announcing article, here’s what happened in the Gallen household after Nightengale made that social media post:

“So I was sitting there at breakfast with my dad,” Gallen told MLBFits. “A family friend of ours came over, and he’s like, ‘Oh nice, you’re going to Chicago,’ and I was like, ‘I don’t know what you’re talking about.’ So there was a hectic kind of 20 minutes or so there. I was getting calls from family, and then from my now-wife, was like ‘We’re going to Chicago?’ I’m like, ‘No, I would let you know if we’re going to Chicago.’”

Gallen and his wife actually got married the weekend after that news broke (and un-broke), which only amplifies how wild that report must have seemed in the moment.

So that must have been fun!

Anyway, as you obviously know, Gallen re-upped with the D-backs and has had a pretty good year so far: 3.14 ERA, 1.360 WHIP in six starts. His K rate is down a bit, but otherwise he’s showing that last year was an aberration in an otherwise fine career.

The last time he faced the Cubs, April 19, 2025 at Wrigley Field, they hit him pretty hard (seven hits, six runs in six innings), including home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit. If you do go there to interact with D-backs fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Jordan Walker’s first month has contained some of the highest highs any player is ever going to reach, and some familiar lows. How do we rationalize what we’ve seen so far?

We’re about one month into the baseball season for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals. In the grand sweep of the season, this is but the opening line. It’s too early to draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen thus far. But, if you’re like me and watching essentially every inning, it feels like a lot of baseball has been played. Which brings me to a thought I’ve been wrestling with for the last few games. What’s the rational way to react to Jordan Walker’s start?

Let’s go to caveat land first. He should play the whole season no matter what – this is the year to learn what he’s really got in the tank. It’s still early. We’ve seen two versions of Walker and that will likely normalize as the year goes on. He’s the same age as JJ Wetherholt and has had an odd career track up to this point. (Now, hold these residents of caveat land in your head all the way through – please and thank you!)

Through roughly 30 games, we’ve seen two versions of Jordan Walker. Let’s start with the Thanos version of him first. (Yes, I’m using Thanos positively here as a kind of destroyer-of-worlds-template in favor of the Cardinals.) From the hallowed stretch of April 4th through April 16th, Jordan Walker turned the difficulty level down to Rookie and treated the league like MLB the Show. Let’s just laugh together at some highlights: .370/.408/.848, a .478 ISO, a 246 wRC+, and 7 homers. Try to export those numbers to another country and Walker would be charged with war crimes. 

He ran career lows in groundball rates, sprayed the ball all over the field, and ran a miniscule 6.5% weak contact rate. The eye test confirmed this. Every ball off his bat was a scud missile buried somewhere in the side of the wall or doing architectural damage to the stadium beyond the fence. Every single problem we wanted him to solve was solved to a Sherlock Holmes degree in this microdose of games. 

It went beyond the numbers, though. Walker seemed in control at the plate. He was jumping on hittable pitches early and was patient on balls out of the zone. He didn’t seem to be lunging like Richard Simmons at every slider low and away. The defense was quite improved (still is!) and he was even stealing bases like Victor Scott II. (Or, not like Victor Scott II – yikes.) In a nutshell, it was everything that everyone who roots for the Cardinals had ever wanted for Jordan Walker. He was a national topic – Eno Sarris was buying in!

Ok, now take a deep breath. Remember, there have been two Jordan Walkers so far. From April 17th through this writing (April 29th), Jordan Walker has looked like Old Jordan Walker. As Ecclesiastes says, there is a time for dancing and a time for mourning. Let us mourn together: .216/.333/.243 (the OBP isn’t bad there!), an .027 ISO, a 78 wRC+, and one extra base hit. 

It’s worse than that (do you still have you citizens from caveat land on board?), he struck out 37.8% of the time and doubled his groundball rate from his thermonuclear streak. He’s been lunging at low and away sliders like I lunge at toasted ravioli (just trust me!), and working seemingly every single count to 0-2 immediately. It’s been ugly the last couple of weeks – and it’s been ugly in a recognizable way.

So, let’s step back. What do we make of this first month? It seems to be a matter of perspective. If you told Cardinal fans at the beginning of the year that Walker would have a 151 wRC+ after the first month, they’d probably ask you how someone got ahold of Yadier Molina’s blood for ritual purposes. That’s an unqualified success – no doubt. 

However, it’s more complicated than that because of the nature of his performance. He went from Aaron Judge lookalike to Old Jordan Walker all in the same month. This is where opinions are going to vary. If it scares you to see the old habits rear their heads, then you’ve got all the ammunition you need to worry. If you’re thrilled that we’ve seen Peak Jordan Walker, then you’re probably feeling good that we’ve seen what’s possible from a 23 year old. 

In short, Jordan Walker is a walking Rorschach test. His ink blot can be read in either direction you’d like to read it. Obviously, as he plays more this season, that ink blot will begin to take a more definite shape that we can use to adjust our expectations.

I can’t and won’t tell you how to fan, but I will share my perspective. I’m worried. We have an enormous amount of data that tells us that Jordan Walker may never figure it out. He turned into an MVP for roughly two weeks and then reverted back. I’m not rooting against him. I’m just concerned that his body of work shows that he’s back to the approach and habits that landed him in an early career tailspin in the first place. I’d like nothing more than for Jordan Walker to develop into the cleanup hitter of the future for the Cardinals. I’m not ruling it out by any stretch. His underlying physical gifts are such that he could flip the switch at any second by refining his approach again. That’s what I want. I just don’t know if the Cardinals inkblot is going to deliver.

Let me know how you’re feeling in the comments. And, as always, thanks for reading!

Who’s the Pack playing?

Opponent: Miami

Mascot: Embraced Fear | School Location: Dextertown, FL | Conference: ACC

2026 Record: 32-12 (12-9, T-4th) | 2026 RPI Rank: 29

2025 Record: 35-27 (15-14, 9th) | 2025 RPI Rank: 34

2024 Record: 27-30 (11-19, 6th Coastal) | 2024 RPI Rank: 81

When? Where? How do I watch?

Location: Doak Field at Dail Park (Raleigh, NC)

Game Time(s): Fri, May 1 @ 3:00pm | Fri, May 1 @ 6:00pm(ish) | Sat, May 2 @ 7:30pm

TV: Friday Game 1 (ACCNX) | Friday Game 2 (ACCNX) | Saturday (ESPNU)

Live Stats: Stat Broadcast (Friday Game 1 | Friday Game 2 | Saturday)

Tell me about this team

NOTE: FRIDAY DOUBLEHEADER

Former Miami pitcher and long-time Hurricanes assistant J.D. Arteaga, now in his third year as the head man of the program, finally seems to be figuring things out. It was a bit of a controversial move firing Gino DiMare, himself another former Hurricanes players and long-time assistant under legendary coach Jim Morris, and handing the reigns to the pitching coach under him. Things certainly didn’t start well, with Miami going from a 42-21 (18-12) record with an RPI of 15 in DiMare’s last season to a 27-30 (11-19) record with an RPI of 81 in Arteaga’s first season. Heck, DiMare won 18+ ACC games in each of his four full seasons at the helm. Arteaga’s going to need a 6-3 finish to the season to reach that mark for the first time.

So, yeah, things haven’t been that great to start with. Last year’s Miami squad got hot in April, but limped to the finish line in May and then was one-and-done in the ACC Tournament. They did make the Hattiesburg Regional and got hot there, eventually making the Louisville Super Regional where they bowed out in a one-run loss in Game 3.

The 2026 Hurricanes started the year on a 10-game winning streak before getting swept at home in a weather-shortened two-game series with Florida. The Canes then lost both of their first two ACC series, vs Boston College and at Duke, putting some heat back on Arteaga. Since the series loss to the Blue Devils, Miami has been on a heater, going 18-6 overall (10-5 in ACC play) and winning all six weekend series.

A combination of a potent offense (.303/.407/.509, 95 2B, 63 HR, 12.7 BB%, 17.9 K%, 52-66 SB) and a pitching staff (32-12, 7 SV, 4.32 ERA, 387.1 IP, 10.0 BB%, 25.9 K%) that features a strong weekend rotation and deep bullpen has allowed for this to be a formidable Hurricanes team. Some late-season injuries are taking their toll, though. Stud JR 3B Daniel Cuvet (.305/.437/.649, 14 2B, 12 HR, 17.4 BB%, 15.8 K%, 3-4 SB), a projected top three round pick in this year’s draft, is out for the remainder of the year with a stress fracture. Friday night starter SR LHP Rob Evans is also dealing with an ankle injury that may cost him his start this weekend, although he should be back for next weekend.

The team did get rSR LF Max Galvin back recently and is expected to return two bullpen arms JR RHP Nick Robert and JR LHP Frank Menendez to regular duty for the closing stretch. That’s going to make this team even stronger in postseason play.

Pitching Matchups

Friday (Game 1): RHP Heath Andrews (JR) vs RHP Lazaro Collera (SO)

Friday (Game 2): LHP Cooper Consiglio (JR) vs RHP A.J. Ciscar (SO)

Saturday: TBD vs LHP RobEvans (SR)

Key Players:

Offense

RF Derek Williams (rSR) – .386/.474/.752, 14 2B, 14 HR, 11.9 BB%, 17.6 K%, 4-8 SB. Former transfer from Wichita State who spent his first two collegiate seasons in the JUCO ranks. Not entirely sure how he’s still eligible considering he played 43+ games in each of his four previous season, but okay. Big time pop from his righty bat, he has 78 career HR across his 244 career collegiate games.

C AlexSosa (JR) – .323/.447/.646, 14 2B, 11 HR, 16.2 BB%, 16.8 K%, 1-2 SB. Needs no introduction for NC State fans. The Florida native and former Wolfpack backstop has put together a really nice season in his draft-eligible turn. Thrown out 7-of-37 (18.9%) of attempted base stealers this year while allowing just two passed balls, both improvements over his numbers last year with the Pack (9.3% and 6, respectively).

2B Jake Ogden (SR) – .311/.389/.486, 11 2B, 5 HR, 9.9 BB%, 13.2 K%, 9-11 SB. Former UNC-Greensboro transfer who started his college ball at the D2 level with Barry University in Miami Shores. Oddly enough, the only game of his college career that he didn’t start was at Barry. Riding a five-game hitting streak during which he’s 10-for-21. Has multiple hits in six of his last nine games.

1B Brylan West (rSR) – .322/.429/.486, 9 2B, 5 HR, 11.9 BB%, 12.4 K%, 4-4 SB. Huge 6’4, 269 lbs right-hander from Tampa who spent two years in the JUCO ranks before spending the last two at Florida International where he was a 2nd Team All-CUSA pick in 2024 and a 1st Team All-CUSA pick in 2025. Hasn’t tapped into that power as much with Miami as he did with FIU (23 HR over two years), but the potential is clearly there.

LF Max Galvin (rSR) – .224/.274/.254, 2 2B, 0 HR, 6.8 BB%, 11.0 K%, 0-0 SB. Local kid who spent two years at Miami-Dade College in JUCO ball before heading to Oklahoma State in 2024 and redshirting with the Cowboys. Started 59 games last year (.310/.369/.491, 18 2B, 8 HR, 7.5 BB%, 10.6K%, 9-10 SB) but missed a month and a half earlier this year due to injury. Returned in early April and it’s been an uphill battle to get back into form, but the lefty can play.

Pitching

RHP Lazaro Collera (SO) – 3-2, 3.58 ERA, 50.1 IP, 8.0 BB%, 23.6 K%. Big 6’5, 225 pound second-year arm who only saw 17.0 innings last year, but has made a huge jump after pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer. Has touched 97 with his heater before, but the slider is his real weapon. The improvement in control has allowed him to succeed as a starter. Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last five starts, working into or through the 6th inning in four of those starts.

RHP A.J. Ciscar (SO) – 4-3, 3.79 ERA, 59.1 IP, 2.4 BB%, 24.0 K%. A 2025 Freshman All-American, Ciscar has excelled as the Sunday man for Miami this year. Has started all 10 of his appearances this year after making 10 starts last year. Sandwiched around a miserable start at Stanford (2.2 IP, 6 ER) two weeks ago has been a combined 14.2 IP of 1-run ball with 1 BB and 12 K against Wake and Cal. Mid-90’s heat from his 6’4 frame with a two-seam fastball that’s surprisingly tough on lefties. Also has a sweeper and a change, and controls all three pitches exceptionally well.

LHP RobEvans (SR) – 8-2, 3.05 ERA, 59.0 IP, 8.3 BB%, 28.8 K%. Has been the Friday night starter all year for Miami, but is dealing with an ankle injury so will be pushed back to the final game of the series in hopes of giving him some extra rest. There’s a good chance he doesn’t pitch this weekend. The former Georgia State transfer from Harlem, NY, sits in the low-to-mid-90’s and has a pair of breaking balls. Only pitched 15.1 innings in relief for Miami this year, but is having a standout final campaign. Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last four starts.

RHP Lyndon Glidewell (SR) – 3-0, 2 SV, 3.38 ERA, 26.2 IP, 8.0 BB%, 35.7 K%. Former JUCO player who transferred in this year from Austin Peay. Took over the closer role in early April with Ryan Bilka struggling a bit in that capacity. Was a 2nd Team All-ASUN selection last year as a starter (8-0, 3.36 ERA, 77.2 IP, 10.1 BB%, 18.9 K%). Clearly a good move by the Miami staff to move him into a relief role as it’s allowing his stuff to play up. Over his last 8 appearances: 9.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 17 K, 1 HBP.

RHP Ryan Bilka (SR) – 2-0, 4 SV, 4.50 ERA, 26.0 IP, 15.4 BB%, 26.5 K%. Richmond transfer who spent his first two collegiate seasons at Wagner. Was a menace last year for the Spiders (6-2, 3 SV, 2.18 ERA, 62.0 IP, 5.3 BB%, 23.5 K%). Can throw up to five pitches, including a mid-90’s fastball. Started the season as the team’s closer, but struggled through early March. Control has continued to be an issue that pops up, but 10 of his last 13 outings have been scoreless.

RHP T.J. Coats (JR) – 5-2, 3.75 ERA, 36.0 IP, 8.1 BB%, 19.3 K%. Nebraska transfer who started his college ball in the JUCO ranks. After only tossing 11.1 innings for the Cornhuskers last year, he had a breakout summer in the Cape Cod League (32.2 IP, 11 BB, 40 K) and used that to hit the portal and wind up with the Hurricanes. Solid build at 6’2, 212 lbs with a low-90’s fastball, a solid slider, and a curve and change mixed in.

LHP Jake Dorn (rJR) – 5-0, 3.00 ERA, 24.0 IP, 12.6 BB%, 28.2 K%. Former JUCO transfer who is just now finding his footing after mixed results at the JUCO level, missing all of 2024 with TJS, and only tossing 13.2 IP last year for the Hurricanes. The 6’4, 235 lbs southpaw has a three-pitch mix including an upper 80’s fastball that runs in on lefties and a big loopy 12-6 curve.

Quick! Fun Facts!

Ryan Bilka pitched against NC State back in the opening series of the 2023 season, appearing in the second game (1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP). He also faced off against the Wolfpack last season when he was with Richmond, but did not appear in that game.

Jake Ogden played against NC State as a member of UNCG in 2024, going 1-for-5 with a 2B, 2 R, BB, and K in a 18-3 Spartans win.

NC State is just 1-5 in the last six meetings with Miami since the start of the 2023 season.

Alex Sosa leads Miami in WAR with 2.70, while Daniel Cuvet is second at 2.42. Rett Johnson leads NC State with 2.67 WAR, while Ty Head is second at 2.57 and Luke Nixon is a close third at 2.54.

The Key To A Series Win For State

Without Ryan Marohn for a third straight week and facing a Friday doubleheader, the key is simple: get length from starters Heath Andrews and Cooper Consiglio. The Wolfpack can ill-afford for Friday to turn into a pair of bullpen games.

Prediction

The Wolfpack are 21-7 at home this year and coming off a big run-rule win in a midweek home tilt with ECU. This is a tough matchup with a loaded Miami team that is 9-4 on the road this year. Pitching typically wins these types of series, and the Hurricanes have more of that right now.

Outcome: Miami takes two of three.

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Start your weekend right with some MLB best bets, based on trading prices available at Polymarket (which allows fans coast-to-coast to participate in baseball action).\

Our expert MLB picks for May 1 have found value in the Jays and Cubbies winning, along with a pitcher's duel taking place in Tampa.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: TOR ML	+100
Neil Parker: CHC ML	-127
Joe Osborne: SF/TB u7.5	+104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

It might be scary backing a Patrick Corbin start, but the Toronto Blue Jays have already handled Simeon Woods Richardson this year, tagging him for five runs in just 12 outs. The familiarity factor leans toward the hitters in this spot.

Toronto’s lineup is getting healthier and can make up for Corbin, who has actually looked solid, allowing just four runs over his last three starts. If this game is decided late, the edge goes to the visitors — and the league’s best bullpen over the last seven days.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is being mispriced this afternoon. His 14.2 K% and 24.0% called+swinging strike percentage are both career-low marks, and he’s also served up a career-high 45.8 hard-hit rate. It’s also reflected in his 4.95 xERA — checking in well above his 3.14 ERA.

With the Chicago Cubs on a 12-3 heater, while pacing the majors in wOBA and striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball, I’m anticipating Gallen to run into trouble navigating a deep and potent lineup.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Giants/Rays Under 7.5

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

Runs should be tough to come by tonight in Tampa with a lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup featuring two lineups that have struggled against southpaws. The San Francisco Giants have been especially bad, ranking 27th in OPS against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks.

Tampa Bay Rays lefty Shane McClanahan has been sharp at home, while Robbie Ray is back in top form with two earned runs or fewer allowed in five of his six starts.

More ammo for an Under wager: The Giants' bullpen leads MLB in ERA over the last 14 days.

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Somerset Patriots 9, Portland Sea Dogs 6 (BOX)

Franklin Arias went four games without hitting a home run and I was starting to get concerned. That changed in dramatic fashion in the top of the ninth on Thursday night, when Arias tied the Sea Dogs game at 6-6 on a two run bomb to center. 

My favorite rating on any FanGraphs page at this moment is Arias’ Game Power:

The 20 is for “present” Game Power, with 45 as “future”. This was Arias’ eighth home run of the season, in 20 games. I’d suggest that Fangraphs update that Present rating ASAP. 

Unfortunately, the Patriots (NYY) walked it off in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run homer by Coby Morales off of reliever Cooper Adams. Starter Patrick Halligan struck out six batters, allowing two runs in 2 ⅔ innings. 

On the hitting side, Arias and Nate Baez had two hits, and Brooks Brannon knocked in three runs. 

Worcester Red Sox 4, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 1) – BOX

The Woo Sox got solid pitching from starting pitcher Alec Gamboa, who struck out six over 5 ⅔ innings in game one on Thursday, beating the Red Wings (WAS). Jack Anderson, who may be needed again in Boston once his 15-day minors clock is up, gained his first save to close down the seven-inning affair. 

Matt Thaiss homered for Worcester, and Kristian Campbell was 1-for-2 with a walk, a run, and an RBI. 

Worcester Red Sox 7, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 2) – BOX

The Woo Sox completed the sweep in game two, thanks to home runs from Vinny Capra and Braiden Ward, accounting for the first two runs of the ballgame off of Red Wings starter Riley “The Great” Cornelio. Anthony Seigler knocked in two runs and was on base all four times in this one. 

It was more of a bullpen game for Worcester, with Devin Sweet, Angel Bastardo, and Wyatt Olds splitting the work. Bastardo picked up his second win, now throwing five shutout innings on the season. 

Hub City Spartanburgers 6, Greenville Drive 2 (BOX)

First round pick a year ago Kyson Witherspoon continued to struggle in his start on Thursday against Hub City (TEX). He walked five batters and hit another in 2 ⅔ innings of work, allowing four runs as his ERA jumped to 7.13 on the season. He struck out six batters but threw just 32 strikes on 66 pitches. 

The Drive had five hits on the day, with two of those coming from Justin Gonzales who was on base all five times he stepped to the plate, walking once, and being hit by two pitches. Yoeilin Cespedes continued his heater with two more hits, as well. 

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Wilson Warbirds 5 (BOX)

Salem trailed the Warbirds (MIL) 5 to 1 after six innings before the game flipped in a hurry. Two home runs from Starlyn Nunez, another from Ty Hodge, and a fourth from Luke Heyman accounted for nine unanswered runs to close the game. Nunez, Heyman, and Hodge all had three RBI on the day. Here’s the second of two bombs from Nunez:

All three runs that starter Madinson Frias allowed were unearned, and Ethan Walker went 5 ⅓ strong innings in relief to get the win, striking out nine.