Category: Baseball

When discussion about a Freddy Peralta trade came up during the offseason, there was one consistent message sent with any rumor: If the Brewers decide to trade Peralta, they were not just looking at prospects. They wanted MLB-ready talent that would be under team control for several years. In their trade with the Mets for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, they got what they wanted (even if it meant trading Tobias Myers as well). Both players are top talents who are ready to impact the major-league team immediately.

Let’s start with Williams. His natural position is shortstop, but because he was behind Francisco Lindor in the Mets organizational depth chart, he likely wasn’t going to break into the majors there. As a result, he had been splitting time between second base, shortstop, and center field in the minors. In Milwaukee, he will have a better chance to grab the shortstop job competing against Joey Ortiz. The problem is that there’s also competition behind Williams. In the Brewers’ list of MLB Pipeline prospects for 2025 (which now includes Williams), the top four prospects (Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Williams, and Cooper Pratt) all can play shortstop. Even if Williams grabs the shortstop job in 2026, he could quickly lose it as soon as Made is ready to come to the majors. Not only that, but Brice Turang has a solid grip on second base, taking a potential spot away there as well.

However, this is where his flexibility can help in the Brewers’ system. The Brewers’ outfield could use a boost as well. While Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick are both locked in to starting jobs in the outfield, neither is a strong center fielder. Both can cover center well, but would benefit more from remaining in the corners. Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell are the current leaders to start in center. Perkins is an excellent defender but doesn’t offer much for offense. Meanwhile, Mitchell hasn’t shown that he can stay healthy for a full season yet. As for Christian Yelich, he’s basically a full-time designated hitter who might get a few corner outfield starts — and that’s not the ideal alignment. Jake Bauers will get more starts in the outfield than Yelich does. Outfield prospects for the Brewers are thinner, with their top two prospects being Braylon Payne and Luis Lara — both outside the Brewers’ top 10. If the Brewers need coverage in the outfield, Williams has a chance to earn playing time there.

Since Williams hasn’t debuted in the majors yet, a minor league start to the season is likely for him, if only for service-time manipulation. Once Williams debuts, his role will be dependent on what the Brewers need. If Ortiz is struggling at the plate, Williams could be a shortstop. If neither Perkins nor Mitchell step up in the outfield, he could spend time out there. Even in a worst-case scenario, we could see Williams take a role similar to Andruw Monasterio as a utility player for his first season. He could rotate between second, shortstop, and center field, racking up starts as other players get days off. The only concern in that scenario would be a backup for third base, since Williams has not spent any time there.

Meanwhile, Sproat will factor in to the Brewers’ rotation plans almost immediately. His service time is a little tougher to handle, since he recorded 22 days of major league service in 2025. That won’t matter much for the Brewers, though. Rotating through starters with options was a regular occurrence for them, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on the shuttle between the majors and minors for at least part of the season. Where he starts will depend on what happens during spring training.

Following the departure of Peralta and Myers, here are the potential starters for the Brewers in 2026:

• Brandon Woodruff
• Jacob Misiorowski
• Quinn Priester
• Chad Patrick
• Logan Henderson
• Aaron Ashby
• DL Hall
• Brandon Sproat
• Robert Gasser
• Coleman Crow
• Carlos Rodriguez
• Angel Zerpa

Of those starters, only the top three are locked into starting rotation jobs in 2026. Patrick and Henderson have the early inside track for the other two but aren’t a lock yet. Ashby and Hall are wild cards who could stick to the long-relief role or get a chance to make the rotation. Sproat, Gasser, Crow, and Rodriguez all will fight for jobs, and one or more could force their way into the rotation. I also included Zerpa, who was mentioned as a potential starter when he was acquired.

Here’s one of the most interesting parts of that list. Other than Woodruff, every player on that list has at least one minor league option remaining. Misiorowski and Priester likely won’t be optioned and will be on the team. It’s likely the same with Ashby, who has established himself as a dependable reliever at a minimum. Hall, Rodriguez, and Zerpa each have just one option left. Gasser, Henderson, and Patrick each have two options. Sproat and Crow have a full three options available. If battles are close in camp, those options will play a factor. Players with one option may have a stronger chance to make the team to avoid burning that option right away. On the other side, players with a full three options have significantly more flexibility, and using the option would not hurt it in future seasons.

What that also means is the Brewers can rotate through starters with less concern during the season. Even though that’s a deep list, it may not stay that way. Coming out of camp in 2025, the Brewers’ rotation was decimated by early injuries. Ashby, Myers, and Woodruff all opened the season on the injured list. Aaron Civale joined them a few days into the season, and Nestor Cortes a few days after that. The injuries were so deep that they had to sign Jose Quintana late in camp and then trade for Priester just a week and a half into the season. In total, 18 different pitchers started at least one game for the Brewers in 2025 (including the playoffs). That number is inflated because some were openers — at least four regular relievers (Ashby, Hall, Trevor Megill, and Rob Zastryzny) made a start. Of those 18 pitchers, 10 of them made at least four starts, and that doesn’t include Cortes, who entered the season in the rotation but only made two starts before being traded. The opportunity will be there for Sproat in 2026. Whether he earns a job in camp or starts the season in the minors and comes up to provide midseason depth, he will have a chance to prove himself.

The Brewers did what they wanted in the trade of Peralta and brought in young, MLB-ready talent. Both Williams and Sproat are already ranked high in the Brewers system and ready to play in the majors. We won’t have to wait long to see what they have to offer. They will be a part of the 2026 team, even if it doesn’t happen right away.

The San Diego Padres and catcher Luis Campusano may be in the final weeks and months of their relationship. It also could be extended into the season if Campusano can put together a solid showing in Spring Training that earns him a spot on the Padres’ roster. Freddy Fermin will handle the catching duties as the primary catcher in San Diego, but Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball says president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller should look at adding another catcher to the mix to create some depth at the very least or perhaps solidify the backup role.

Padres News:

• A report from Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic earlier this week named pitchers Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez and Justin Verlander as possible free agent targets for the Padres. Gaslamp Ball asked its readers which of the three right-handers they would add to the rotation in this week’s Padres Reacts Survey.
• Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune provides the list of player development and minor league coaching assignments that were announced by the organization, Wednesday. Sanders also set his sights on Joe Musgrove, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, for his ongoing review of the San Diego roster.
• Preller has spent the last couple seasons trading away much of his farm system. The depleted system is highlighted with the fact that catcher Ethan Salas is the only Padres prospect to make Baseball America’s top-100 list.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. was named the No. 15 player on MLB Network’s Top 100 Players Right Now list.

Baseball News:

• For the second time in as many days the New York Mets completed a headline trade. The Mets and Milwaukee Brewers agreed to a trade to send ace pitcher Freddy Peralta and pitcher Tobias Myers from Milwaukee to New York in exchange for infield/outfield prospect Jett Williams and pitching prospect Brandon Sproat. The Mets also made a free agent signing, adding reliever Luis Garcia on a one-year deal.
• Cody Bellinger and the New York Yankees finally reached common ground and the top remaining free agent position player agreed to a five-year, $162.5 million deal to bring him back to New York.
• Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Ranger Suarez were introduced as new members of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Mets and Boston Red Sox, respectively, Wednesday.
• The Red Sox made a trade with the Minnesota Twins to add minor league catcher Nate Baez in exchange for infielder Tristan Gray.
• Free agent Yoan Moncado and the Los Angeles Angels agreed to a one-year deal that will bring him back to Los Angeles for the 2026 season.
• Game times for World Baseball Classic and Spring Breakout were released, Wednesday.

Prospect season continues and with it, Baseball Prospectus has published their list of the top 20 prospects in the Tampa Bay Rays system entering the 2026 season.

1. Carson Williams
2. Brody Hopkins
3. Theo Gillen
4. Ty Johnson
5. Daniel Pierce
6. Anderson Brito
7. Slater de Brun
8. T.J. Nichols
9. Michael Forret
10. Jose Urbina

There are some suprises on the list as Baseball Prospectus is much higher on Ty Johnson than other prospect sites (other than our own, which ranked Ty Johnson our No. 5 prospect last week), most notably Baseball America where he was ranked 22nd.

Some recently acquired prospects have provided some juice to the system: Slater de Brun cracks the top ten and is ranked the highest of any player the Rays acquired in the Shane Baz deal; Michael Forret, also acquired in that trade, is 9th. Anderson Brito, whom the Rays acquired on the same day in the Brandon Lowe swap, is ranked 6th.

Jose Urbina slots in at 10th after being ranked 19th by Baseball America. Sitting just outside the top ten is outfielder Jacob Melton, who is ranked 11th and highly regarded.

At the top of the list, sits Carson Williams, whom Baseball Prospectus still believes in despite his reputation for “walking a knife’s edge of offensive production.” Carson Williams had fallen from the top spot on the Rays list for several publications although he was recently considered one of the top shortstop prospects in baseball.

Prior entries:

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder
• Austin Riley
• Drake Baldwin
• Ronald Acuña Jr.

Chris Sale led Braves pitchers with 3.6 fWAR in 125 2/3 innings of work last year. When the Braves acquired Sale for Vaughn Grissom, they were able to do so because it was perfectly reasonable to assume that Sale would make fewer than ten starts in 2024, given his propensity for both baseball-related and off-field injuries. The guy hurt himself biking to Chipotle in a part of Boston that isn’t very friendly to bikers; you can see why the Red Sox were perhaps eager to move on. Of course, that led to some egg on some faces, as Sale dominated in a 29-start campaign in 2024, winning the NL Cy Young Award in the process.

But then came 2025, and it was time to once again have silly injuries dampen his production — this time as a result of a dive in the ninth inning of a not-that-close game that led to some boinked ribs and Sale missing about a third of the season. Whoops.

Career-to-date, status

Sale’s career is long and storied enough that summarizing it isn’t really gonna help anyone all that much for looking to 2026.

Drafted with the 13th overall pick in 2010, Sale made just 11 minor league appearances before dominating as a reliever for the White Sox in 2010-2011. He then had a crazy-dominant run as a starter from 2012-2018, putting up nearly 40 fWAR in seven seasons, making at least 26 starts in each year, and getting traded to the other Sox team partway through that run. 2019, the first year of a gaudy contract extension, featured somewhat diminished performance, and he hit the shelf with elbow inflammation that prematurely ended his season.

Things then got silly, as the 2020-2023 campaigns featured pneumonia, a pandemic, Tommy John Surgery, a rib stress fracture suffered while throwing batting practice, a finger fracture on a comebacker, the aforementioned wrist-bike-Chipotle incident, and a shoulder problem. Then he got traded to the Braves and issues miraculously disappeared for a season. Yay.

The Braves reworked Sale’s contract when trading for him. Owed $27.5 million in 2024 with a $20 million club option for 2025 at the time of the deal, the Braves changed the terms to a $16 million payout in 2024, a guaranteed $22 million in 2025, and a new club option for $18 million for 2026, which they exercised basically as soon as they were able to this offseason. (The Red Sox also sent cash along with Sale in the trade. For more, have fun reading Cot’s.) Basically, pending any additional extensions, Sale will hit free agency after this season.

Recent performance

Sale was still dominant in 2025, with the big dent on his value being him missing about two months with the rib injury sustained from diving to grab a comebacker. He put up 3.6 fWAR in 125 2/3 innings — that’s a 5.7 fWAR-per-200 innings pace. Sale’s line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) was 57/53/66 in 2024 and 61/67/73 in 2025. So, yeah, he declined — but not by that much. And, as we noted in our player review series, if the two months he missed looked like his performance after returning (64/64/58), his 2025 could’ve looked even more like his 2024.

The question for Sale is more one of durability. He’s already shown the ability to make in-season adjustments to return to dominant performance when he starts slipping (see April 2025 compared to the months afterwards). It’s more just… he’s going to turn 37 right around Opening Day, he’s cleared 150 innings once since 2018, and that one Cy Young campaign aside, he just keeps getting hurt in weird ways.

Forecasting

Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Sale, for 2026.

Not too much to say here, if you’ve read the above. There’s a big swing in Sale’s production based on health and availability, which can matter a lot. Hopefully he doesn’t have more incidents in his future, but given that the 2026 Braves are already suffering from the fallout of Ha-Seong Kim vs. a patch of ice, don’t be too optimistic here. That aside, IWAG basically sees 2026 Sale as identical to 2025 Sale on a rate basis.

If you want to chuckle, look at the chart above, then go back to the Ronald Acuña Jr. one of these, then look back at this chart. Alright, so, per IWAG, the Braves’ fortunes rest in large part on how healthy their two best players are. Cool, because they’ve never had issues with keeping guys on the field before… right?

Point is: IWAG has few qualms about Sale being anything other than a standout performer when he’s available. The question is just whether he’s available or not.

IWAG diverges from the other projection systems here. Steamer has Sale at around 4 WAR per 169 innings, more than a win below IWAG’s rate basis point estimate. ZiPS is basically in line with Steamer on a rate basis, with an even lower innings total. They probably know how to account for Sale’s advanced age better than IWAG. In any case, let’s hope Sale stays healthy and available.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Chris Sale produce in 2026? (If you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number.)
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

For the first time in quite some time, the Phillies are primed to have some of their top prospects play real roles on the Major League team. The Big Three of Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, and Aidan Miller all have paths to playing on the Phillies in 2026 that are varying degrees of open. But there are some outside shots of others in the system appearing in the Majors, such as Gabriel Rincones Jr. being an option in the event of an injury to an outfielder.

But which one will bring the most juice to the big-league club? Before discussing, make sure to check out our ongoing community prospect ratings as well as the great Matt Winkelman’s 2026 prospect list in order to read up on some of the names in the Phillies system.

Crawford seems the most likely to receive the largest opportunity to provide a spark to the Major League team. It’s essentially an open secret that the starting centerfield job is his to lose this spring, and if all goes well, Crawford will make his MLB debut on Opening Day. The Phillies are clearly high on Crawford, as they’ve reportedly kept him off the table in trade discussions numerous times and are basically handing him a starting job this spring. He still has his issues, but it’s become clear that there’s not much more for him to do at Triple-A after hitting .334 with an .863 OPS in 112 games in 2025. Crawford will likely get a decent sized leash in the Majors, as the Phillies don’t really have another viable CF option currently on the roster outside of moving
Brandon Marsh over, so he’ll have plenty of chances to contribute.

Painter, like Crawford, is a candidate to receive real playing time in the Majors, but his is a little murkier. The Phillies as of today have three healthy starting pitchers in Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler will return at some point in 2026, perhaps sooner than later, but his timeframe is not certain. Taijuan Walker is the sixth starter, so he will step into the rotation in the likely event Wheeler isn’t ready for Opening Day.

That leaves Painter with the opportunity to win the fifth starter’s job in the spring in a competition that isn’t a real competition. It would only resemble a competition if Wheeler were ready to go and there’s one rotation spot for Walker and Painter, and even then, the deck would be stacked in Painter’s favor. Painter’s first season pitching in two years after Tommy John surgery was a rocky one, and there’s real concerns about whether his fastball can regain the elite shape it had pre-injury. He will also have some sort of innings limit, as he only threw 118 innings last year as he worked his way back. Still, it would be a surprise if Painter is not on the Opening Day roster, as the departure of Ranger Suárez opened a hole that ideally will be filled by Painter.

Miller meanwhile has the lowest chance to make the MLB roster but nevertheless has a path. He is currently blocked now and in the future at shortstop by Trea Turner, and at third base by Alec Bohm. However, with Bohm in the last year of his team control and the possibility of an extension being almost nonexistent, Miller would be the favorite to be the starting 3B in 2027. But if there were to be a long-term injury to one of the Phillies infielders in 2026, Miller would likely be at the front of the line to earn a promotion and there’s a chance it would be permanent if he starts the year well in Triple-A.

Rincones is in a similar boat as Miller, although he would not be a full-time starter if he were to earn a call to the Majors. A lefty outfielder who hits righties well but struggles mightily against LHP, Rincones profiles as a strong side platoon corner outfielder. The Phillies already have one of those in Brandon Marsh, but if something were to happen to him, Rincones would be the first one up in Marsh’s place.

So, which Phillies prospect will have the biggest impact in 2026? Is it one of the big three of Crawford, Painter, and Miller? Or is it someone more under the radar like Rincones?

Picture the scene. An Orioles hitter works his way into an extended at-bat. On a 3-2 pitch, he lays off of one that’s outside the zone and starts to head to first base — only for the ump to ring him up on a called strike three. The O’s have an out instead of a baserunner. The entire complexion of the inning changes. All because of a blown call on one fateful pitch.

Does it seem like that happens to the Orioles kind of a lot? Well, you’re not imagining things. Orioles hitters have been one of the league’s biggest victims of blown ball-strike calls over the past few years. According to Statcast, since the 2023 season, 2.0% of pitches outside the strike zone have been called strikes against O’s batters, a bit above the American League average of 1.9%.

In a perfect world, you’d hope that O’s hitters would also benefit from blown calls at an equal rate — as in, pitches in the strike zone being called balls. But that hasn’t been happening. In that same time span, only 1.6% of pitches to Orioles hitters have mistakenly been called balls, the lowest rate in the AL.

That 0.4% difference in miscalled strikes and miscalled balls might not seem like much, but it’s the most drastic difference among any AL team, and the most in the majors besides the Giants. Over the past three years, it’s a difference of 273 pitches. And it shows that the Orioles offense has been disproportionately unlucky on umpires’ ball-strike calls.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting that umpires are purposely pulling one over on the Birds. Calling balls and strikes is an extremely hard job, especially on borderline pitches, and it’s impossible for umps to get every one correct. Still, the Orioles have made a point of constructing an offense filled with hitters who know the strike zone. When they’re constantly getting saddled with strikes on pitches that they know should be balls, it changes the entire complexion of an at-bat. Hitters might have to start being overly aggressive or swinging at pitches they shouldn’t be swinging at, simply because they don’t trust the umpire to call the strike zone correctly.

Nearly every O’s batter has been affected by this. Of the Orioles’ nine hitters on the 40-man roster with 2+ years of MLB service time, all nine of them have been victimized by miscalled strikes more than they’ve benefited from miscalled balls in their careers. In some cases, the difference is severe.

Player	% of pitches outside zone called strikes	% of pitches in zone called balls	Difference
Jordan Westburg	2.6	1.1	1.5
Adley Rutschman	2.6	1.6	1.0
Ryan Mountcastle	2.2	1.3	0.9
Tyler O’Neill	2.4	1.5	0.9
Colton Cowser	2.2	1.6	0.6
Leody Taveras	2.4	1.8	0.6
Pete Alonso	2.2	1.7	0.5
Gunnar Henderson	2.2	1.9	0.3
Taylor Ward	2.5	2.2	0.3

That’s an entire lineup’s worth of Orioles hitters (including those who just joined the Orioles this offseason) who have suffered miscalled strikes in 2.2% or more of their career pitches. None of them have come close to making up for it with miscalled balls. These guys, through little fault of their own, have been faced with unfavorable counts and blown calls more than the average hitter.

Now let’s get to the good news.

As you might have heard, a major change is coming to baseball this season in the form of the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS). This will allow a hitter, pitcher, or catcher to challenge a ball or strike call immediately after the pitch, using Hawk-Eye technology to confirm the exact location. Teams get two challenges per game but retain them if they are successful.

ABS could be a game changer for Orioles hitters, who will finally have a way to reverse the undeserved strike calls that have all too often been going against them. It could be a particular boon to Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ two biggest victims of blown calls in recent years. Westburg has managed to hit well despite all the miscalled strikes; Rutschman, not so much. If there’s anything that can snap Adley out of his 1.5-year offensive doldrums, perhaps it’s his regaining his confidence in his batting eye and knowing that he won’t be bilked out of an at-bat by a blown call. The same goes for the entire O’s offense.

That’s not to say that every miscalled pitch will be reversed. Since teams can only afford two unsuccessful challenges per game, they’ll likely be judicious about how often they use them. So you might not see a batter challenge, say, a 1-0 called strike in the first inning with nobody on base. It’s not worth the risk if you’re not 100% sure it’s wrong. But in a big situation, when the bases are loaded in the late innings and a borderline 3-2 pitch is called strike three? You’d better believe there will be a challenge.

ABS is a long-overdue addition to Major League Baseball. It’s a quick, easy way to minimize blown calls by home plate umpires that impact the game. And for the 2026 Orioles, it just may be the key to an offensive revival.

Yankees star Cody Bellinger’s wife, Chase Carter, is thrilled that he’s staying in the Bronx after agreeing to a five-year, $162.5 million deal Wednesday.

“We are so excited,” Chase wrote in an Instagram post, including a snapshot of them with their two daughters, Caiden and Cy, taking in fireworks at Yankee Stadium.

Her post was set to the song, “New York, New York” by Frank Sinatra.

“New York Baby,” Chase added in an Instagram Story post.

She also reposted a snapshot by Amy Cole, the wife of Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole, which shows them at a Yankees game with Ashley Rodón, the wife of Carlos Rodón, and Reni Meyer-Whalley, the girlfriend of Max Fried.

“Jan 21st keeps delivering,” Amy wrote.

The Bellinger deal got done after the Yankees made it clear that retaining the 30-year-old was their top priority after he declined a $25 million player option.

Bellinger will return to the outfield with Aaron Judge in right field and Trent Grisham in center field. Grisham is back the Yankees after accepting the $22 million qualifying offer earlier this offseason.

The Yankees may now look to trade Jasson Domínguez or Spencer Jones, who would have been competing for the starting job in left field had Bellinger not returned.

Ranger Suárez is officially a member of the Red Sox. We found this out unofficially last week. Which started raising questions: what about the 40-man roster? Had the team flipped an outfielder or pitcher, possibly with prospects, they would have plenty of room to sign one of the remaining free agents and add that unnamed infielder. Since they did the free agent signing “first” (if there is a trade for an infielder) it meant that the Red Sox needed to open a roster spot. And they did this by trading a 40-man guy for a prospect.

Not that Tristan Gray’s 47 career MLB games makes him a veteran, but Baez has played 51 games a Double A. Transforming the roster spot into a starting pitcher and a catching prospect is nice and all, but what about that infielder?

Chris Cotillo reports that: “This is not a surprise or particularly revelatory, but have heard the Red Sox are, in fact, involved in serious trade talks all over the place when it comes to adding to the positional player group.”

Whether it’s signing Eugenio Suárez or trading for Brendon Donovan the Sox need a roster spot.

We know the Garrets (Crochet and Whitlock), Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Aroldis Chapman, Trevor Story, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Carlos Narvaez aren’t being traded. There are a few others as well that are highly unlikely to be moved. Think Campbell, Oviedo, and probably even Romy Gonzalez.

Triston Casas would be selling very low on potentially a 30-homer guy at a corner. Could they upgrade from Connor Wong? Sure, but he’s not going to get that other player and the organization seems to really like his work with pitchers, which is reason enough to have him as a backup. Masataka Yoshida would need a really special deal to move the contract for talent.

Nate Eaton, David Hamilton, and Nick Sogard are all more valuable to the Red Sox than what they’d bring back in a trade. Same with Jordan Hicks. Or Greg Weissert (who isn’t bad, Weissert is fine. He’s just not getting you an infielder and is a weird throw-in because he’s got a good role). Kyle Harrison is probably in this group as well. He’s a bit like Quinn Priester. He was acquired with lower value and might end up with higher value. His Red Sox time so far doesn’t seem to indicate a big step forward. And after the last few seasons, while the Sox might trade one pitcher for a bat, they are probably not interested in giving up Early/Tolle plus Harrison, since they are all starting rotation options.

Where does that leave us?

Let’s run down the options.

Jake Bennett: they did trade for him for a reason and while that applies to Tristan Gray too, Breslow probably doesn’t want to move another guy he just acquired to clear space.

The prospect pitchers: Payton Tolle/Connelly Early. We know they don’t want to move either of these guys – at least as far as leaks about Ketel Marte discussions can be believed. But could one of them help the major league team solve an infield spot for more than a year?

The outfielders: Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu.

Duran has been the drumbeat all winter. The Mets seemed like a destination, maybe, but acquired Louis Robert Jr. instead. The Cardinals are an awkward fit because turning Donovan into Duran doesn’t really make them better when their window opens again after this rebuild. Duran is 29 and not a free agent for three more years, so he could stick around for a bit. Unless Chaim Bloom thinks maybe Duran has another 8.7 WAR season coming and he could flip him for a king’s ransom at the deadline during that season? Then it’s the Astros and possibly moving Isaac Paredes? He has one fewer year of control than Duran but is a couple years younger.

Wilyer Abreu? His biggest knocks are hitting lefties and getting hurt. And some of the injuries, like falling on the dugout steps, aren’t likely to be recurring issues. He’s the youngest of Duran, Donovan, and Paredes by a couple years. He’s not a free agent until 2030. He’s a Gold Glove fielder. He is, possibly, the best of the players mentioned for swaps here. Maybe there is someone else that has escaped the rumors who could be as valuable an infielder – who is available – and that team needs an outfielder.

That’s nearly the entire 40-man roster and, going guy-by-guy, you can see why the rumor mill has only a few targets. Zack Kelly? Jovani Moran? Patrick Sandoval?

And Craig Breslow says they want to emphasize defense?

This is a very good roster thatm less than a month from Spring Training, is missing either a second or third baseman. Mayer can only play one position at a time. I suppose a Romy Gonzalez-led second base rotation could work? But then if he or Mayer or Eaton struggle or hit the IL the team is back to square one.

At the start of this I thought I might see something there but unless it’s really out of the box, like, Kutter Crawford and Moran or Brayan Bello and David Hamilton (who did attract trade attention last year so there might be suitors out there for some price, if not high) then it really is: (1) trade an outfielder, or (2) trade a pitching prospect.

Meet the Mets

The Mets acquired Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers from the Brewers in exchange for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams.

Peralta is the ace the team had been missing and might be the final piece in a busy offseason.

Bo Bichette was formally introduced at Citi Field, and he is confident he can handle moving to third base this season. He’s also very excited to play in New York and hopes he can help the team win the World Series he was oh-so-close to last year.

David Stearns is pleased with his new-look infield and the defense they bring to the team.

Even before the addition of Peralta, Stearns’s methodical plan for this offseason was coming together.

The team signed veteran reliever Luis García to a one-year deal.

This year’s Hall of Fame results could help David Wright’s case in future ballots.

Around the National League East

Andruw Jones is headed to the Hall of Fame to join quite a few of his teammates from the ‘90s Braves teams.

Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski discussed how close the team was to signing Bo Bichette, and The Good Phight appreciated his honesty.

The three former Nationals on the Hall of Fame ballot all fell off after one year of eligibility.

Around Major League Baseball

The Yankees reportedly re-signed Cody Bellinger to a five-year deal worth $162.5 million.

The Red Sox acquired minor league catcher Nate Baez from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for infielder Tristan Gray.

Yoán Moncada is heading back to the Angels on a one-year, $4 million contract.

Buster Posey headlines the players joining the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time in 2027.

Baseball America released its list of the top 100 prospects for the 2026 season.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

On the latest episode of Flushing is Burning, Grace Carbone discussed the Bo Bichette signing.

Should Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos stay or go writes Linus Lawrence.

Mitch Voit came in at number 11 on Steve Sypa’s prospect list.

Missed the Bichette press conference? Brian Salvatore summarized it for you!

How does Luis Robert Jr. fit in the Mets’ lineup?

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1997, the Mets acquired Bernard Gilkey from the Cardinals.

The BBWAA has released the results of their vote. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones made the cut and will join Jeff Kent as new members of the Hall of Fame

Chase Utley (59.1%), Andy Pettitte (48.5), Félix Hernández (46.1) and Álex Rodríguez (40.0) were the closest to line without getting over.

Not getting 5% of the vote and falling off the ballot are Ryan Braun, Edwin Encarnacion (1.4), Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Kemp, Hunter Pence, Rick Portcello, Alex Gordon, Nick Markakis, Gio Gonzales, Homie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy (the last three getting zero votes).

Manny Ramirez also drops off the ball as it was his tenth chance. He had his highest vote total, 38.8, which was still well short. He’ll be on the Contemporary Era Committee Ballot in 2028 (but by then they will be calling it different name). We would have voted him in.

Jones gets in despite spousal assault charges in 2012, when he choked and threatened to kill his wife. Beltrán gets in despite being involved in the Astros cheating scandal.

We had our own polls (though I forgot to add the poll to the Andruw Jones post, not the first mistake I’ve ever made). Dale Murphy (from the Contemporary ballot, who I think is a much better choice than Jeff Kent, we did polls for the ones on that ballot too) and Manny Ramirez. We had Delgado very close to the line.

We also had Barry Bonds and Felix Hernandez very close to the which I like. I think Bonds should be in the Hall and Felix was the top pitcher in baseball for a number of years there.

Don Mattingly, on the other hand isn’t a Hall of Famer, in my world, but I’ve been wrong before. Beltran did far worse with us than with the Writers. I don’t see him as a Hall of Famer.

And we were much smarter on Jeff Kent than the Contemporary Committee.

Here are our votes:

Whoops, I see I missed out Dustin Pedroia (must be my personal dislike), he got 29.8

On Wednesday, the Dodgers made the Kyle Tucker signing official and held a press conference to welcome the newest Dodger.

Tucker, a seemingly quiet guy, joins a team full of larger-than-life players, including the Best Player on the Planet. The outfielder is now second only to Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers payroll and is now also ‘just one of the guys’ in a lineup full of Guys.

Manager Dave Roberts indicated on Wednesday that while final decisions have not been made, he intends to tuck Kyle into either the second or third in the batting order. He also said that Tucker will play right field, while Teoscar Hernandez will move over to play left.

The Dodgers did what they felt they had to do to shore up their outfield, their only real weakness. The Dodgers made a more appealing pitch to the biggest free agent on the market, and who wouldn’t want to join the team that just won back-to-back World Series and don’t have much in a change in personnel to run it back a third time?

“I mean, this lineup is pretty good regardless” of his place in it, Tucker said. “I’m excited to be a part of the group and just try and pick the brains of the guys in the clubhouse and see what makes them better. And you know, they might do stuff that I might not do and vice versa, and we can just kind of build each other up.”

Tucker said all the right words in his presser on Wednesday, an awe shucks take on joining a burgeoning dynasty, as Mirjam Swanson states so well in her article.

Bill Plunkett expands on this in his article, how Tucker was the perfect guy to round out the 2026 Dodgers.

“Throughout the offseason we’ve talked a lot about how high the talent bar was of this current club, and how there’d only be a few available players that we felt would be real needle-movers when it comes to bringing another championship to Los Angeles,” General Manager Brandon Gomes said. “Kyle Tucker is at the very top of that group, and one of the most complete players in all of baseball.”

Tucker joins Andy Pages as the only position player under the age of 30, but just barely at the age of 29. It’s obvious that the Dodgers are making the most of their window with this core team, and are determined to be the most recent team to win three World Series in a row.

Jaylon Thompson writes about how Carlos Beltrán’s time in Kansas City began his Hall of Fame career.

The Royals offered Beltran a chance to develop at the highest level. Beltran lauded Brett and others for his ability to grow as a major league player.

“It was an incredible experience just to be able to be around George Brett,” Beltran said. “The influence that he was to me, just being able to learn from him and go to the (batting) cages with George and listening to him. Just listening to the way he approached the game, how hard he played the game of baseball and how much he enjoyed the game of baseball. So for me, it was a great experience.”

Craig Brown reacts to Beltrán’s election.

The Beltrán game I will always remember is Opening Day 2004. As I wrote above, the Royals had high hopes for that season. Against the White Sox that afternoon, they fell behind, trailing 7-3 going into the ninth. The Royals rallied, though and on a Mendy López pinch-hit, three-run home run (yes, a Mendy López home run), they tied the game. An Ángel Berroa single brought Beltrán to the plate.

Beltrán bashed a walkoff two-run home run. In the baseball wilderness from 1986 to 2013, I believe that was the most euphoric Kauffman Stadium ever was. It was a moment I’ll never forget.

Philip Ruo at Royals Keep writes about what the Royals are getting in Isaac Collins.

As discussed in an article earlier this week, Collins is not particularly skilled against left-handed pitchers with a near-league-average wRC+ of 106. If he can keep this up, he will still improve the Royals’ outfield offensive production.

A deeper look into Collins’s pitch-tracking data shows that he does his most damage against breaking balls, with 6 of his 9 home runs last year coming off them. Despite his increase in power against breaking balls, he is particularly more likely to swing and miss against breaking balls from left-handed pitchers, with his whiff rate at 38% compared to his season average (and better than league average) whiff rate of 22.5%. If Collins can increase his batted ball rates against breaking balls from lefties, that could go a long way in improving his overall production.

Baseball America has their top 100 prospects list out with Carter Jensen at #11 and Kendry Chourio at #82. They write Chourio could be a fast riser.

The righthander blends now stuff with uncommon poise into a skill set that has helped him ascend to the top of the Royals’ system. If he does it again, he could have a case as the sport’s best pitching prospect.

Royals pitching prospect David Shields just missed the list.

 Shields lasted just one start in the Arizona Complex League before earning a bump to Low-A Columbia. He thrived in the Carolina League, where he used stuff and savvy to carve hitters all summer. By season’s end, he’d earned the league’s pitcher of the year honors. He doesn’t have the kind of blow-away stuff as some of the other pitchers in the minors, but his pitchability and command should help him become a midrotation starter in a few years.

Former Royals Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, and Joakim Soria could be on next year’s Hall of Fame ballot.

Cody Bellinger returns to the Yankees on a five-year, $162.5 million deal.

The Mets get Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers from the Brewers.

They also signed reliever Luis Garcia to a one-year, $1.25 million contract.

The Angels bring back third baseman Yoán Moncada on a one-year, $4 million deal.

Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee is detained at the airport.

With Kyle Tucker joining the Dodgers, Teoscar Hernández is excited to play left field.

Chris Getz expects the White Sox to be very active after the Robert trade.

David Schoenfield at ESPN writes about why Beltrán and Andruw Jones got into Cooperstown.

David Laurila at Fangraphs writes about former Royals prospect Mason Barnett.

The Cardinals add Yadier Molina to their front office.

Yasiel Puig is in court this week on charges of obstruction of justice and making false statements to investigators

Why are whiff rates going down on fastballs?

Do NFL GMs have more power than ever?

How family infighting led the Buss family to sell the Lakers.

Meta will begin rolling out ads on Threads globally.

New York Times Games unveils its first two-player game that looks a lot like Scrabble.

Ranking Chris Pratt’s sci-fi movies.

Your song of the day is Blur with There’s No Other Way.

A bad trend has been cropping up among Rockies All-Stars in recent seasons. Since perennial All-Star Nolan Arenado, who earned selections 2015-19, was traded, every Rockie All-Star has performed worse in the season following their All-Star selection.

There wasn’t an All-Star Game in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, and Arenado was traded to St. Louis in February of 2021.

That’s when it went downhill for Colorado All-Stars.

While the star-studded seasons were great at the time, things got worse shortly thereafter for RHP Germán Márquez, first baseman C.J. Cron, catcher Elias Díaz, and third baseman Ryan McMahon. This is a worrisome direction for Colorado, especially for breakout 2025 All-Star Hunter Goodman.

So what makes Goodman different, and how can he snap this skid? 

The good news is that there are some positive indicators that show he’s better positioned to break the downward trend than his predecessors.

But first, I have to acknowledge that the Rockies have been a struggling team that has been worse each season since 2021, culminating in a 43-119 record in 2025. It’s hard to produce at the same All-Star level on a bad team that gets even worse every year.

2021: Germán Márquez

In 2021, Germán Márquez was named an All-Star and had a remarkable season. The then 26-year-old, who was playing his fifth full MLB season, posted a 4.40 ERA, went 12-11 in 32 games with three complete games and one shutout. He registered 176 strikeouts compared to 64 walks and 21 homers, finishing the season witha 2.4 rWAR.

In 2022, he was still decent, but dropped off. In 31 starts, he posted a 4.95 ERA and went 9-13 with zero complete games or shutouts for a 1.4 rWAR. He still struck out 150 batters and only walked 63, but he also gave up 30 homers.

Things got even worse for Márquez with significant injuries (Tommy John surgery, more elbow and biceps issues) and struggles in the following seasons that limited him to five starts in 2023-24. In 2025, Márquez went 3-16 in 26 starts with a 6.70 ERA and a -1.1 rWAR. Less than a month out from spring training, the 30-year-old still remains a free agent.

But it’s hard to compare pitchers and position players, so let’s focus on the last three All-Stars: Cron, Díaz and Ryan McMahon. It’s important to look at their All-Star campaigns and follow-up seasons before we get into Goodman’s numbers.

2022: C.J. Cron

In his ninth MLB season and at age 32, Cron built off of a strong 28-homer, 92-RBI season in 2021 when he got his first invite to the Midsummer Classic in 2022. He started with a bang, posting 21 homers, 69 RBI and a slashline of .298/.350/.552 in 346 at-bats before the All-Star break to earn the team’s lone selection.

In the final series before the All-Star break, Cron was hit in the hand by a fastball. It hindered his ability to hold the bat and it showed up in his stats. In the shorter second half of the season, he plummeted, hitting only .197/.263/.341 with eight homers in 251 at-bats.

The next season, Cron got worse in almost every major offensive category, though he did drop his strikeout rate a bit. Cron battled back spasms, even landing on the IL for nearly a month and a half. He was traded to the Angels midseason in 2023 during his 10th season in the league, which ended up being his final one. Like Márquez, Cron’s post-All-Star career was derailed by injuries.

2023: Elias Díaz

In 2023, Diaz, in his seventh full MLB season and at age 32, was the solo Rockie in the All-Star Game and the first Rockies catcher to get the nod. Díaz arguably had a better season in 2021 when he hit 18 homers, drove in 44 runs and posted a 2.2 rWAR in 106. He played more (141 games) in 2023 and was named the All-Star Game MVP, hitting the go-ahead, two-run homer in the National League’s 3-2 victory.

Díaz wasn’t quite as strong in 2024, but still was putting up good numbers as the Rockies No. 1 catcher. As the season continued and with Goodman tearing it up in Triple-A Albuquerque, the Rockies released Díaz in August after five years in Colorado. Díaz was picked up by the Padres, where he played the last two seasons.

Currently, he is a free agent.

2024: Ryan McMahon

Tasked with the weight of replacing Arenado, McMahon was an outstanding defender at third base, but wasn’t nearly as impactful at the plate. Like Díaz, McMahon might have had his best season in 2021 when he hit 23 homers and posted career-highs in rWAR (4.0) and batting average .254.

In 2024, at age 29 and in his seventh full season in the Big Leagues, McMahon had a great first half, slashing .272/.350/.447 with 14 home runs and 45 RBI in 360 at-bats.

Like Cron two years before him, McMahon cooled down after the All-Star break, hitting .188/.283/.309 with six homers and 20 RBI in 207 at-bats. Last season, McMahon struck out more and dropped his batting average by 0.28 points. On July 25, McMahon was dealt to the Yankees, where his numbers continued on a slight downward trend.

Overall, the trajectories aren’t good. McMahon could still right his ship in New York, but there weren’t happy endings for Cron and Díaz.

2025: Hunter Goodman

So, let’s dive into the three reasons that make Goodman more likely to repeat his “really, really, really good season,” as manager Warren Schaeffer put it in a press conference on Dec. 8.

The first advantage is Goodman’s age. He earned his first All-Star nod at age 25, which happened to be his second full season (third overall). He hit a higher level of play sooner than the other Rockies All-Stars, which hopefully means his career is still on an upward trajectory, as opposed to hitting a short-lived peak.

Second, Cron, Diaz and McMahon all fell into horrible slumps in the second half of their All-Star seasons. McMahon finished 2024 as the third-best Rockie (2.5 rWAR), Díaz’s rough second half of 2023 landed him as the sixth-best Rockie at 1.4 rWAR, and Cron’s struggles dropped him to No. 5 at 2.1 rWAR in 2022. While they got off to great starts, they weren’t consistent enough to finish as the top Rockies. Even without the last-season downfalls, it’s likely that none would have merited Midsummer Classic invites if they played on better teams.

Goodman had ups and downs, like every player does, but no significant drop-off after the All-Star break. He was the Rockies’ best player when All-Stars were named in July and at the end of September when he finished with a team-high 3.7 rWAR. Goodman was the best catcher in the National League in homers (31), RBI (91), average (.278), slugging percentage (.520) and OPS (.843). Goodman’s steady 2025 campaign was much more impressive from start to end than Cron’s, Diaz’s or McMahon’s, and he would have been an All-Star playing on any NL team.

Finally, McMahon, Díaz and Cron didn’t finish their post-All-Star seasons with the Rockies. All three went to other teams where they didn’t even start, as opposed to being the best Colorado player — even if for a short time. All three finished with significantly fewer games and plate appearances in the season following their All-Star selection. 

While anything is possible under Colorado’s new front office, the Rockies seem to be building their new core around Goodman. In his December press conference, Schaeffer talked about wanting to see the young catcher develop as a leader moving forward. He also said he believes Goodman could even increase his game appearances and plate appearances from 144 and 579 plate appearances in 2025 to be more like Seattle’s Cal Raleigh. Raleigh, who consistently plays DH when he’s not behind the plate, played in 159 games and recorded 705 at-bats in 2025.

All signs point to Goodman having another star-studded season in 2026, and being the Rockie who breaks the post-All-Star slump trend.

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Paul DePodesta on why the Rockies were too compelling to ignore | Sports Business Journal

Reporter Mike Mazzio caught up with Colorado’s new president of baseball operations and heard about why he wanted to join the Rockies, how he kept an eye on baseball during his time in the NFL and what changes he sees in analytics.

Rockies Fan Fest brings early baseball buzz to Coors Field | 9News

The local news outlet covered which Rockies will be there, including Hall of Famers Todd Helton and Larry Walker, what RockiesFest is like and what will be available during the 13th annual event on Saturday.

All game times for regular season, World Baseball Classic, Spring Breakout released | MLB.com

If you want to start thinking about some of the exciting match-ups and how to watch some of them, check this one out.

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Good morning, baseball fans!

Yesterday, it was announced that the San Francisco Giants will have yet another former player inducted into the Hall of Fame this season. This time, it will be Carlos Beltrán getting the honors.

Congratulations to Beltrán first and foremost. But my goodness, the hypocrisy is strong with this one.

This is the same Hall of Fame that continues to keep Barry Bonds out at all costs, ostensibly because of his ties to the steroid era. Meanwhile, we’ve seen players like David Ortiz get voted in, despite testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.

And now Beltrán has been voted in as well, despite having a central role in the trash-can banging, sign-stealing legacy of the Houston Astros’ 2017 World Series Championship.

While many would argue that Beltrán’s on-field performance outweighs the controversy, where is that same case for Bonds?

Why is it that voters can ignore the steroid usage by Ortiz and the cheating by Beltrán because of their playing legacy, but Bonds (one of the all time greatest to ever play the game) doesn’t deserve that same consideration?

Ultimately, it’s not even necessarily about Bonds (or Ortiz, or Beltrán). It’s about the hypocrisy and the inconsistency of the enforcement of their arbitrary, unwritten rules.

Either players embroiled in scandals like these aren’t eligible, and that is enforced consistently, or you don’t get to use these things as an exclusionary tactic.

But they can’t have it both ways and still expect to be respected as an institution.

I don’t think I quite realized how defined the top 3 in the Cardinals system would be. It makes sense, after the votes had been tallied, and I definitely knew that JJ Wetherholt was the favorite for #1 and Liam Doyle the favorite for #2. I didn’t even think about who #3 would be, but I suppose I wouldn’t be surprised by Raniel Rodriguez falling third either. But cumulatively, it is strange and certainly a first since I’ve started this that the first three votes were all about as close to unanimous selections as you can get.

I imagine that stops here. I don’t even know if I’d feel comfortable even saying anyone is a favorite. I don’t think I have a guess quite frankly. Fangraphs listed eight players in its most recent iteration of their top 100 and another player not on that list landed on Baseball America’s top 100. Which is to say that there are, in theory, five legitimate candidates to be selected as the 4th best prospect. Let the games begin.

Comparable Player Corner

Yes, I am bringing this feature back. Instead of trying to read minds or predict the future, I just allow you guys to tell me where your preferences lie. In the near future, I will have to consider adding a prospect from the 2025 draft and when I thought about it, I realized I wasn’t really sure who to add first.

Tanner Franklin, 22 – RHP (72nd overall)

Scouting: 65/65 Fastball, 40/50 Cutter, 30/40 Command

Quick and dirty report – I’m not going to bother with his stats, he threw 6 total pro innings. Reliever out of college, the Cardinals are trying to convert him to starting based on his fantastic fastball. Obviously, he’s a project and it’s not super likely he’ll start, but his fastball also gives him a strong chance to be a good reliever.

Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF (55th overall)

Scouting (Pipeline): /60 Hit, /50 Power, /55 Run, /50 Arm, /50 Fielding

Pipeline does not list current scouting, just potential which is probably for the best for a guy who has not yet made his pro debut. Mitchell was listed as a shortstop when drafted, but he was announced as a centerfielder. His potential at least suggests an all-around good player.

Yeah this really comes down to which kind of prospect do you prefer. Do you prefer the likely reliever who has a chance to be a dominant starter or do you prefer the high school prep athlete (and based on the interview I watched after he was drafted, a very smart one) who is all potential right now?

strawpoll.com/Qrgew4W8jyp

New Adds

I have a very similar structure for who I will decide to add for the next three weeks. For the next three weeks, I’m adding two players. At that point, we reach 10 people on the ballot and I think that’s enough honestly. But I’ll take advantage of adding two players. There are, to way oversimplify my process, two kinds of players I add: there’s a player who was on last year’s list, where I have a very clear frame of reference on when they might be selected; and then there’s the player who is essentially a complete unknown, where trying to guess where they’ll land will prove difficult.

So because those are the basic archetypes, for the next three weeks, I’ll be adding one of each player. For this week, a top 10 player last year who you know is kind of weird himself honestly. He improved his stock and then needed Tommy John. Where he’ll be placed is anyone’s guess despite him being the more known pick. I’m talking about Tekoah Roby, selected 10th last year. The complete unknown player was quite literally unknown at this time last year: Deniel Ortiz. Anyone with his stats needs to be put on the voting sooner rather than later.

Joshua Baez, OF – 23

Stats (High A): 168 PAs, .317/.404/.483, 10.7 BB%, 21.4 K%, .166 ISO, .400 BABIP, 152 wRC+, 108 DRC+

AA: 331 PAs, .271/.374/.509, 12.4 BB%, 20.2 K%, .238 ISO, .294 BABIP, 141 wRC+, 125 DRC+

Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 45/60 Game Power, 60/70 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 40/50 Fielding

Baez is one of the more unique prospects I can ever remember following. Not in terms of his ability necessarily, or the stats he puts up, or his scouting report. No, I can’t remember a player who so changed his fortune so suddenly to where the before and after look like different players. Across two levels in 2024, he struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances. Last year, it was 20.6% across the two levels.

And that wasn’t the only thing that changed. Strikeouts was really the only negative of his game, but boy was it a negative, but his walks kind of improved (though not drastically) and his power definitely improved. Granted, it must be said, it is easier to have power in Springfield than either Peoria or Palm Beach, so you know that’s part of it. Nonetheless, he’s a brand new prospect, we hope, and he did it fairly late in his pro career (fifth season!)

Leonardo Bernal, C – 22

Stats (AA): 107 G, 455 PAs, .247/.332/.394, 10.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, .146 ISO, .274 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 113 DRC+

Scouting (FG): 35/50 Hit, 35/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 40/30 Speed, 40/55 Fielding

While we’re talking about progression as a prospect, Bernal made an interesting one from High A to AA. In High A, he had mediocre K/BB numbers and good pop lead to a 119 wRC+. In AA this past season, he had fantastic K/BB numbers but not a lot of power leading to a 103 wRC+. While it seems like he was a worse hitter, his BABIP fell from .333 to .274. That pretty much entirely explains the difference.

Which if you believe in the Baseball Prospectus stat deserved runs created+, which I am going to be incorporating into the stats now, was unlucky. Bernal’s one question is even simpler than Baez’s: do you believe in the low BABIP? A .300 BABIP and he probably has a similar hitting line to his 119 wRC+ last season.

Brandon Clarke, 23 – LHP

Stats (Low A): 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 47.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 68.8 GB%, .125 BABIP, 0.93 ERA/0.98 FIP/1.32 xFIP/3.66 DRA

High A: 11 GS, 28.1 IP, 31.2 K%, 18.1 BB%, 62.5 GB%, .254 BABIP, 5.08 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.74 xFIP/4.75 DRA

Scouting: 60/60 Fastball, 70/80 Slider, 40/50 Change, 30/40 Command

I have also chosen to incorporate deserved run average, or DRA into the stats. I am surprised Clarke’s DRA was that high in his 3 games at Low A. I’m actually not sure how it could be that high given his 47% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and super high groundball rate. So I might take that particular number with a grain of salt. His DRA in High A, however, looks very similar to his other stats at that level.

If Clarke’s pitches are scouted remotely correctly, that would suggest Clarke could be a reliever at the MLB right now. Of course, his command might prevent him from being good right now, as you can see by the 18% BB rate.

Jimmy Crooks, C – 24

Stats (AAA): 98 G, 430 PAs, .274/.337/.441, 8.4 BB%, 26.5 K%, .167 ISO, .352 BABIP, 105 wRC+, 106 DRC+

MLB: 15 G, 46 PAs, .133/.152/.244, 0 BB%, 37 K%, .111 ISO, .185 BABIP, 5 wRC+, 67 DRC+

Scouting: 35/40 Hit, 40/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 20/20 Speed, 60/70 Fielding

I think it might be lost in the shuffle that Crooks is rather young, despite kind of not seeming like it. Last year was his age 23 season. Most years, we’d be pretty excited about a 23-year-old catching prospect known for his defense who had an above average hitting line at AAA and made his MLB debut. Getting more specific tends to lower the optimism from that baseline.

But he’s kind of in the perfect farm system to get overlooked with two other big time catching prospects, both quite a bit younger than him. In front of him is a very offensive-oriented catcher who is trying to prove he can throw out runners and a very defensive-oriented catcher who honestly probably looks a lot like the version of Crooks who works out. He’s right in that middle ground.

Tink Hence, 23 – RHP

Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.18 xFIP, 4.56 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fast, 50/55 Slider, 60/70 Change, 45/55 Command

Hence is in a weird spot. He’s within the mix of pitchers currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, except Hence did not have Tommy John. He is in theory healthy at the moment. Unless I missed a report that is. And yet, he doesn’t exactly feel like a healthy pitcher. I think his 2026 will be a big year for him. I think it’s important that he shows some sort of health. He needs to actually throw innings at a certain point. I might even say he’s likely to get moved to the bullpen if his 2026 isn’t particularly healthy either, despite being only 23 right now.

But also, go look at his numbers from the 2024 season. He was very good in AA. He’s ready for AAA, whenever he’s healthy enough to pitch there.

Quinn Mathews, 25 – LHP

Stats (AAA): 24 GS, 99 IP, 26.1 K%, 16.8 BB%, 41.8 GB%, .302 BABIP, 3.73 ERA/4.30 FIP/4.78 xFIP/4.53 DRA

Scouting: 50/55 Fastball, 50/55 Slider, 45/45 Curve, 60/60 Change, 45/60 Command

It might be beneficial in the long run that Mathews had the 2025 that he did, even though most – myself included – largely expected him to not only debut last season, but to make as many as 20 starts. That didn’t happen. Part of it was his fault, part of it was that nobody really got injured, and part of it was that he didn’t need to be added to the 40 man. As a consequence, we are a year later and he’s kind of in the same situation as he was a year ago – we think he’ll make a good many starts, but he’s behind some guys more likely to make the roster. In this year’s case, the guys ahead of him can be sent down, for the most part, so it’s more possible.

And when I say it might be more beneficial, he had some growing pains maybe better experienced in the minors, but also his service time clock has yet to start. Unless he makes the majors earlier than expected, the Cardinals are looking at 7 years of team control. Well, depending on the CBA of course.

Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B

Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+

High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+

Drafted in the 16th round of the 2024 draft, Ortiz did not play the rest of that year. So at this time last year, none of us knew who Ortiz was. There was no reason to pay attention to him. Now there is. Fangraphs does not have a scouting report on Ortiz, so I don’t actually have any scouting information to give you. But really, if he’s voted onto this list, it wouldn’t be for the scouting anyway.

The crazy thing about Ortiz is that he had that season at 20-years-old. It’s unusual for a late rounder to have the kind of season Ortiz had, but when it happens, it tends to be an older prospect, like Matt Carpenter in the 13th round. So the usual downside of hoping it’s not just an old guy beating on guys a few years younger is not present here. Ortiz is the young guy.

Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP

Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA

AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA

I chose Roby ahead of other players basically because he had a good 2025. Most of the other choices didn’t really have a great 2025, or at the very least, it certainly didn’t raise their stock. Now, whether the Tommy John surgery immediately puts him back to where he started at the beginning of 2025 is another matter. But when he pitched, he was great.

And here is the poll to vote on the 4th best prospect in the Cardinals’ system.

strawpoll.com/w4nWWO3zdnA