Category: Baseball

Two of my all-time favorite announcer calls are “Do you believe in miracles… Yes!” and “I don’t believe what I just saw.” Iconic quotes of iconic moments made by Al Michaels and Jack Buck, two of the all-time greats. With all due respect to both of them, despite the insane improbability of a Cubs team going through what it has the last three weeks, this comeback was actually the least surprising thing in this game to me.

Some thoughts I’ve had on social media tonight for discussion. This felt like a month’s worth of two-out runners in scoring position hits for the Cubs, all in one inning. For those not counting at home, there were three separate two-out runner(s) in scoring position hits for the Cubs in the ninth inning. There was an additional hit with two outs and a runner not in scoring position.

The other thought I had on social media was to wonder if a team can hit rock bottom in a game that they ended up winning? The team had two hits through six innings, four hits through seven (and eight) and then seven hits in the ninth inning. What even is that? I noted before the series that the A’s bullpen has been a bottom 10 bullpen in major league baseball this year. They had represented excellently in the first two games of the series. Your starter getting deep in all three games can make them look so much better. But then the A’s bullpen immolated in the ninth inning. I will say this, for all of the struggles of the Cubs, the Cub defense would not have let all seven of those hits find grass. We take it for granted, but this Cub defense makes a ton of plays others just can’t.

On top of the not hitting, there was a caught stealing in the middle of the rally. I know the conventional wisdom is that you don’t make the first or the third out on the bases in an inning. But I don’t really know how you can get caught stealing down two in the ninth either. I think you take second if they are giving it to you, but the A’s were in no way giving it to you. I love Nico, but I didn’t like the strategy there. I thought sure the rally was doomed there.

Then there was the missed fly ball. I love Pete Crow-Armstrong. Absolutely, the Cubs don’t win this game without his bat. But boy was that a tough watch. I saw someone say it and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen someone miss one so bad. He had to have picked up something else off of the bat and ran to completely the wrong spot on the field. In those spots, I have trouble getting mad directly at the player. The Cubs have benefitted from so many high flys at Wrigley this year that were lost in some combination of lighting and the elements. It happens. If you ever played much outfield, or probably even infield, I suspect this has happened to you somewhere along the way. But as brutal a play as you’ll ever see.

Shōta Imanaga threw quite well early in this game, but after the missed fly, he seemed to unravel. If things weren’t bad enough, that missed fly looks like a booming homer on his line. The three he allowed that left the park were not cheapies. You had to know that it was pretty dicey seeing Imanaga pitching on a night when the wind is blowing out pretty good. Simply not ideal. If there is any rebound in the Cubs, I have to imagine that in some order Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd are their top three pitchers. You then just have to hope you can pick spots adequately with all of your depth pitchers. But if Imanaga, Colin Rea and Jameson Taillon are starting key games, this team is probably in trouble.

For math purposes, the Cubs had 3.9 percent chance of winning heading to the bottom of the ninth. Happ’s RBI double with one out had it up to 11.5 and Hoerner’s single sent it to 20.9 percent. But it cratered to 4.6 percent with the caught stealing. Seiya Suzuki’s single sent it to 16.7 percent. Dansby Swanson’s single sent it to 63.5 percent. A giant Wheee! And the Cubs walk it off for the seventh time this season. Incredible.

Three Positives:

• I’ve never singled out a stat for a slot here, but the Cubs were 6-for-10 with runners in scoring position, left just four men in base and had three two-out RBI, all in the ninth inning.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong had two hits, one a homer, was hit by a pitch, stole a base and delivered the walk-off winner for his first such hit of his MLB career. Kudos to a very alert Clark who located the ball in the outfield and grabbed it for PCA’s souvenir collection and almost fell over trying to scoop it up while holding the W flag.
• Ian Happ double, homer, three runs driven in, two runs scored. I laughed because one fairly recognizable Cub fan on twitter called the two-run homer a meaningless homer in a losing cause. I’m sure he’s happy to be wrong. You never know. That’s why you keep playing.

An additional hat tip to Trent Thornton and particularly Ryan Rolison. 12 batters between them — Rolison recorded five outs on five hitters, striking out three — and holding the line. Again, it looks like they were just holding the line, but it turned out they kept it just within reach. Though PCA’s single probably scores two with two out.

Game 63, June 4: Cubs 7, A’s 6 (33-30)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.448). 2-4, HR, HBP, 2 RBI, R, SB
• Hero: Dansby Swanson (.397). 1-4, RBI
• Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.072). 1-1, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Shata Imanaga (-.191). 6 IP, 6 H, BB, 6 ER, 5 K
• Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.152). 1-4, CS
• Kid: Alex Bregman (-.082). 1-4, 2B, R

WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s two-out, game-tying, RBI-single in the ninth inning. (.468)

A’s Play of the Game: Jonah Heim throwing out Nico Hoerner trying to steal second with a nice tag by Alika Williams at second. (.163)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 62 Winner: Colin Rea nudged Ian Happ 46-42 (131 votes)

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +21
• Nico Hoerner +111
• Ian Happ +10.5
• Michael Conforto +10
• Ben Brown +9.5
• Ryan Rolison/Phil Maton/Jameson Taillon/Caleb Thielbar -8
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -11
• Seiya Suzuki -29.5

Win Pace: 84.9

Up Next: The Giants (25-38) come to town fresh off of winning two games in a row in Milwaukee to take that three game series. But they are 3-7 in their last 10. Edward Cabrera (3-2, 4.00, 54 IP) comes off of the injured list after a minimum stay there for blisters on his throwing hand. He was 0-2 with a 5.79 in May. Hopefully, this was exactly the kind of reset he needed.

How about another lefty starter? The Cubs have been struggling to win games started by left-handed starters recently. Robbie Ray is 3-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 62.2 innings. The former 12th-round pick of the Nationals back in 2010 is having a tough season. He had a decent start last time out against the Rockies, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks in four innings. He hasn’t completed five innings since May 8.

The Giants bullpen is 28th in strikeouts, 25th in WHIP, but 16th in ERA. They only have a collective seven losses, tied for second best in baseball. So all of the losing is actually happening while the starter is still in there. Even with the series win in Milwaukee, the Giants are just 13-22 on the road.

I know it is a big ask, but the Cubs need to sweep this team.

The Yankees managed to salvage a win and avoid a sweep by the Guardians at Yankee Stadium on the back of strong solid pitching from Carlos Rodón, shutdown bullpen work, and some clutch hitting by Ryan McMahon. With the win, the Yankees climb to within a half-game of the Rays, who had the day off. The win came as a much-needed positive boost in an otherwise troubling day in Yankees universe, the team finally confirming that Aaron Judge has been dealing with a stress fracture in his ribcage that will sideline the captain for a minimum of four-to-six weeks.

It was an otherwise quiet day around the league, with only the Blue Jays in action among the Yankees’ AL rivals. They themselves avoided a sweep with a hit parade in the final game against the Braves in Atlanta, Toronto amassing seven runs on 16 hits against the best team in baseball.

Toronto Blue Jays (30-33) 7, Atlanta Braves (42-21) 2

The ageless Chris Sale continues to defy Father Time, but the Blue Jays lineup appeared to be seeing the ball as well as any team that has faced him this season. They put him to the sword early and never let up that constant pressure. Sale was lucky to escape the first two innings unscathed. George Springer doubled and Ernie Clement singled to lead off the first, but Sale got Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to fly out and struck out the next two batters to strand the pair. An inning later, Nathan Lukes drew a leadoff walk and Tyler Heineman singled with one out to put another pair on, but Sale once again stranded the runners in place.

He would not be so fortunate in the third with Toronto continuing to press forward. Vladdy doubled with one out and Kazuma Okamoto reached on an infield single to put runners on first and second for the third straight inning. This time, Charles McAdoo — called up to replace the injured Lenyn Sosa and handed his MLB debut last week — broke through, lining a single up the middle to plate Vladdy and advance Okamoto to second. Sale then hit Lukes with a first-pitch sinker to load the bases for Myles Straw, whose ground ball single up the middle allowed Okamoto and McAdoo to score, though Sale avoided further damage by getting Heineman to ground into the inning ending double play that included Lukes getting thrown out at the plate.

The Blue Jays had to love this early production against Sale considering they countered the Braves ace with a bullpen game. Opener Mason Fluharty recorded the first four outs before handing the ball to bulk man Chad Dallas making his MLB debut, and the 25-year-old righty held the potent Atlanta offense to a run on two hits and two walks in 3.2 innings. He backed himself into a corner in the bottom of the third, yielding a leadoff single to Ronald Acuña Jr., who then stole second and advanced to third on a Mauricio Dubón single. Matt Olson plated Acuña with a sac fly that also advanced Dubón to third, and a two-out walk of Michael Harris Jr. put runners on the corners. However, Dallas made a slick behind-the-back grab on a Dominic Smith grounder up the middle to end the threat.

From there, the game settled into a pitchers’ duel in the middle innings, the Blue Jays continuing to apply pressure without finding the timely hit that would put the game to bed. Sale allowed a pair of singles to Vladdy and Lukes in the fifth but induced a Straw line out to end the frame. A Springer two-out walk followed by a Clement single knocked Sale from the game in the sixth, but reliever Didier Fuentes got Vladdy to ground out to strand another pair of Toronto base runners and wrap up Sale’s final line at three runs on ten hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 5.2 innings.

It looked like these wasted opportunities would come back to haunt the Blue Jays when Dubón crushed a no-doubter solo shot in the eighth off a hanging 1-0 Braydon Fisher slider to pull within one. However, they erupted for four runs in the ninth inning off reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever Reynaldo López to arrive at a 7-2 scoreline that didn’t flatter them in the slightest. Clement and Vladdy clubbed a pair of singles to leadoff the inning, but López quickly retired the next two hitters and came within a strike of escaping the jam to send his offense to the bottom of the ninth trailing by just a run. However, Lukes kept fouling off pitches until he was able to line a single to right to plate Clement and move Vladdy to second. From there, the floodgates opened, Straw singling Vladdy home and Heineman doubling to score both Lukes and Straw. In the blink of an eye, the Blue Jays turned a one run lead into an insurmountable five run lead to salvage a win from this series despite stranding 12 base runners on the day.

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The ultimate rivalry is back. Tonight, the New York Yankees kick off a weekend series against the Boston Red Sox in the Bronx, aiming to extend their dominant five-game winning streak over their rivals.

New York enters the matchup as the clear favorite, well-positioned to exploit a Boston starter who is due for a reality check. Read all about it in myYankees vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Friday, June 5.

Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-140)

Despite their struggles in the wake of AL MVP Aaron Judge's injury, the New York Yankees should take care of business tonight, and I'd play this to -165. 

Sonny Gray is due for negative regression. His 4.39 expected ERA is nearly a full run and a half higher than his actual ERA. Pulling these metrics down the most is a barrel rate that sits in the Bottom 33% of the sport.

Judge's absence is felt, but the Yankees still rank first in baseball in both barrel and hard-hit rate, built to expose Gray's contact profile.

COVERS INTEL: Sonny Gray drops his four-seam usage to 9% against right-handed hitters, forcing him into a cutter-heavy mix against a Yankees lineup that leads the league in barrel rate.

Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-120)

This is a two-unit play on the Over, my seventh of the season. I made this number 8.3 and would play it to 8. 

We've talked about Gray and why this Yankees lineup can cause him problems, even without Judge. The other side is the Boston Red Sox offense, and I feel good about them in this matchup.

Ryan Weathers' nearly 30% strikeout rate is impressive, but a Bottom-15 percentile barrel rate cannot be trusted with a total this low, especially against a Boston lineup with four starters in the Top 30% of those metrics.

Red Sox vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +125 | Yankees -150
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Red Sox vs Yankees trend

The Yankees have cashed the Over in six of their last eight games for +3.75 units and a 43% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.

How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info

Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries

Red Sox vs Yankees weather

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Brayan Bello — the man some once called “Little Pedro” — is headed to Worcester. What a long strange trip it’s been. (Not the trip to Worcester — that’s pretty straightforward, though I don’t envy him making the drive on the Friday of a beautiful summer weekend).

I never really bought into the “mental” explanation of why he performed so much better with an opener this season. It just doesn’t seem to make much sense that someone who has pitched in 112 MLB games in his career would all of a sudden be freaked out by the first inning. But he is human, and the yips are real, and we could be witnessing some kind of fulfilling cycle of first inning doom here. It’s a fascinating thing to watch, really.

So what do the Red Sox do now? Garrett Crochet is not particularly close to returning. The Sox roster isn’t exactly well set-up for bullpen games. And the Sox have 9 games in the next 10 days. Trading Caleb Durbin for Kyle Harrison probably isn’t an option at this point, so is Jake Bennett going to be in the rotation for the foreseeable future, or would you like to see the Sox go another route?

Talk about depth starters, weird mental hangups, and whatever else you want and, as always, be good to one another.

Texas Rangers outfielder Hector Osorio and infielder Rafe Perich were named the Player of the Month for the month of May for the Carolina League and the South Atlantic League, respectively.

Osorio — who we did a Q&A with earlier this week — put up a .339/.449/.598 slash line for the Hickory Crawdads in the month of May, with 15 walks against 13 Ks in 87 plate appearances. The 21 year old is slashing .291/.427/.547 in 50 games for Hickory this season, and would seem to be poised to be promoted to high-A Hub City in the not-too-distant future.

Perich, a corner infielder who turned 24 last month, was the Rangers’ 7th round pick out of Lehigh in 2024. Prior to his being promoted to AA Frisco late in the month, Perich had a .345/.448/.747 slash line for Hub City in May in 105 plate appearances, including 10 homers. Overall this year, Perich slashed .303/.394/.606 at high-A before being promoted.

Jackson Merrill ripped a two-run home run to right field that banged off the advertising on the face of the second deck and ricochetted back down onto the field as he rounded the bases en route to home plate where he completed his trip and pulled the San Diego Padres within two runs of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Padres trailed 6-4, but with no outs and Phillies reliever Jose Alvarado having already allowed two runs, there was a glimmer of hope that San Diego could pull off some late-inning magic and avoid the series sweep. Alvarado would not allow another run, in fact, he did not allow another baserunner, before closing out the game and securing the win for Philadelphia.

The Padres continued to struggle at the plate and saw six of nine batters who were in the starting lineup finish their day without a hit. San Diego amassed just four hits in the game with two of those hits accounting for the four runs scored. Manny Machado hit a two-run home run in the top of the seventh, which made the score 3-2 before Adrian Morejon took the ball in the bottom of the inning and allowed three runs on three hits with one walk. He was replaced on the mound by Wandy Peralta after 1/3 of an inning and the Phillies enjoyed a 6-2 lead.

Merrill drove in Ty France who walked to open the ninth inning, and the only other hits in the game for San Diego came from the No. 9 hitter, Bryce Johson. He singled in the sixth and singled in the eighth. Johnson moved to second in the eighth inning after a Gavin Sheets walk, but with two on and two out in the inning, Machado grounded to third to end the top half of the frame.

The Padres return to Petco Park to host the New York Mets today at 6:40 p.m. still looking to find some kind of offensive identity. The problem for San Diego now is the bullpen faltered multiple times on the road trip and are showing signs of wearing down and being less affective.

Padres News:

• The Padres catching tandem of Freddy Fermin and Rodolfo Duran have provided nothing at the plate recently, but minor league catcher Blake Hunt is hitting homers for El Paso.

• A.J. Preller is always one of the general managers the baseball world keeps an eye on at the trade deadline and this season could have an interesting deadline according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Baseball News:

• The New York Yankees are without their biggest bat in Aaron Judge, but they were able to squeak out a 2-1 win against the Cleveland Guardians to avoid a sweep.

• Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello was beat by the Baltimore Orioles, 8-2 and was optioned to Triple-A after the game.

• The San Francisco Giants split their series with the Milwaukee Brewers with a 12-9 win Thursday.

Hickory starter Jesus Lafalaise walked five and struck out three in 4.1 IP, allowing three runs.

Paulino Santana homered. Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 5. Josh Springer was 2 for 3 with a double and a walk. Dewar Tovar was 2 for 4 with a homer.

Hickory box score

Kamdyn Perry started for Hub City and struck out two and walked three in 4.2 shutout innings.

Gleider Figuereo and Patton Kling each had a hit.

Hub City box score

Frisco starter Winston Santos allowed three runs in five innings, striking out three and walking one. Bryan Magdaleno walked two and struck out two in an inning of work, allowing one run. Eric Loomis struck out two in a shutout inning, lowering his ERA on the year to 0.60. Ryan Lobus allowed a run in two innings, striking out one and walking one.

Dylan Dreiling was 3 for 4 with a homer and a walk. Arturo Disla and Rafe Perich had a hit apiece.

Frisco box score

For Round Rock, Thomas Ireland struck out out one in 1.1 shutout innings. Joe Ross struck out one in two scoreless inning.

Cam Cauley had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Jarred Kelenic had a hit. Aaron Zavala had a hit. John Taylor doubled and walked.

Round Rock box score

ACL Rangers box score

DSL Rangers Red box score

DSL Rangers Blue box score

Earlier this week, All-Star voting for the 2026 season opened up. Over the next several weeks, fans will have the opportunity to make their choices for the starting lineups for the American and National League teams for this year’s edition of the game, taking place in Philadelphia to coincide with various celebrations for the 250th birthday of the United States of America.

It is, of course, a sacred duty for Orioles fans to vote for all Orioles, going back to the days of when these things were actual punch card ballots that got handed out by ushers in the stadiums. All those Yankees fans and Red Sox fans and whoever else would be voting in their assorted jabronis, so you better try to counter their ballot stuffing.

The punch cards have been gone for quite some time in favor of less-charming digital ballots. This year’s ballot is sponsored by a video game company known for giving the gaming world the ultimate cheat code: up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, B, A, start. Mike Elias puts in that code and he thinks he’s going to get his choice of waiver wire relievers and one-year contract starting pitchers. It probably won’t help him beat Contra and it hasn’t been great for the AL East lately either.

There have been fun years in recent memory where there was a deserving Oriole at a great number of positions and you didn’t have to be a ridiculous homer to vote for mostly or entirely Orioles ballots. Last year wasn’t one of those years. This year is also not looking like one. Even if several players go on a tear between now and the end of the voting period, people’s minds are largely made up before voting begins. Below is an attempt to carefully consider the case for each Oriole at each position and how they stack up to the competition.

Designated hitter

• The Oriole: Samuel Basallo
• Should you vote for him? Yes
• Are you a total homer for voting for him? Probably

There’s a Yordan Alvarez-sized problem for Basallo getting in as the starter in the American League. The Astros nearly-full-time designated hitter is, going into Thursday’s games, the best hitter so far in all of MLB, dropping a 1.075 OPS on the league. He’s hit 21 home runs already.

Even so, we can all be excited about what Basallo has done so far this season, particularly the way he rebounded after a tough first few weeks of the season to become one of the better young hitters out there. It’s nice that the Orioles have finally noticed and are lately playing him nearly every day, even against lefties. And he definitely deserves to be a reserve over just about anybody else you could name among AL designated hitters.

First base

• The Oriole: Pete Alonso
• Should you vote for him? Yes
• Are you a total homer for voting for him? Unfortunately, yes

Based on reports, the Orioles actually attempted to sign Kyle Schwarber the day before they signed Pete Alonso, but (this is my speculation) Schwarber just used the Orioles to drive up the price to return to the Phillies. I mention this because Schwarber has 23 home runs and Alonso so far only has 12. That’s not going to get anybody into the All-Star Game or probably even back into the Home Run Derby. As of this writing, Alonso is 8th in fWAR among primary first basemen, trailing people like Munetaka Murakami and Jonathan Aranda.

There were a lot of intangibles that the Orioles hoped they were getting in signing Alonso and it seems like they are getting those with veteran leadership and all that jazz. Some more tangibles would be nice too. There are four more years to get Alonso into the All-Star Game as an Oriole. People other than me might find this thought reassuring.

Second base

• The Oriole: Jeremiah Jackson
• Should you vote for him? Yes
• Are you a total homer for voting for him? Yes

Jackson was a fun story last year after arriving with little fanfare and having a good month of August. That feels very far away now. After a fantastic March/April where he had six home runs and drove in 24 runs, Jackson hasn’t homered yet in May or June and he’s OPSing under .500 since April turned to May. It’s too bad, because there’s not an overwhelming AL favorite here; it’s close between four guys, currently led in fWAR by Texas’s Ezequiel Duran. Maybe next year, Jackson Holliday can be a guy who deserves support.

Third base

• The Oriole: Coby Mayo
• Should you vote for him? Yes
• Are you a total homer for voting for him? Yes

The last 28 days split for Coby Mayo is .281/.359/.526. That might get him in the conversation for being a starter if he’d been doing that for the whole season. However, he had an OPS under .500 as recently as May 9. That’s not going to do it, particularly against a field that includes seven-time All-Star/likely future Hall of Famer José Ramírez. Might still be a good time to buy some Mayo stock anyway.

Shortstop

• The Oriole: Gunnar Henderson
• Should you vote for him? Yes
• Are you a total homer for voting for him? Yes

Even in the month of April, when he hit nine home runs, Henderson still didn’t manage to get his OBP over .300 or his SLG over .500. He’s only hit four home runs since and he isn’t hitting for average or getting on base while not hitting the homers either. I’m bummed about him, friends. This is the shortest entry because I don’t want to say any more.

Catcher

• The Oriole: Adley Rutschman
• Should you vote for him: Yes
• Are you a total homer for voting for him? Mostly

One aspect of being a sports fan is veering continually between “It is so over” and “We are SO back.” This dynamic may be exemplified most clearly by Rutschman, about whom my Camden Chat colleague Stacey and I are always asking, “Is Adley back?” And the thing is that, often, he is back. But the reason that he’s back is because he went away for a while and that kind of sucks. His most recent status is “not back,” refreshing the cycle yet again while probably not winning him very many neutral votes.

Outfield

• The Orioles: Leody Taveras, Dylan Beavers, Taylor Ward
• Should you vote for them? Yes, yes, and yes
• Are you a total homer for voting for them? Yes, yes, and yes

Confession: If Tyler O’Neill was listed here, I was going to break from the bit and say no, you should not vote for him. The Orioles have saved me that trouble by not even listing him. It is, actually, pretty sad that Beavers, who’s been on the IL for a month, gets a spot here over either O’Neill or Colton Cowser. That’s the way the season’s gone for those other guys. A guy I follow on Bluesky called The Dishwasher has lately pointed out this remarkable fact: O’Neill has batted 27 times in the first two innings of a game this year and he has zero hits in that time. Sheesh.

Taveras carried the Orioles offense, such as it was, through roughly their first 25 games and since that time has returned to hitting like Leody Taveras. This is not complimentary. Other outfielders are bad enough at hitting lately and Taveras is okay enough defensively to still make it worth playing him, but come on, it’s a tough field for the outfield, led by Mike Trout, who may actually be back. That’s a fun story.

Then there’s Taylor Ward. First impressions stick in the mind and my first impression of him was that Opening Day play where he misread a carom about as badly as you can do. He has continued to play poor defense in the field, worse than I think even the Orioles could have reasonably expected based on Ward’s career to date. He had not hit the dingers that we had all expected, instead carving out a strange new niche as a “gets on base a lot and hits a bunch of doubles” guy that has some value, if not quite the value the Orioles were expecting. Grayson Rodriguez has a 10 ERA after four starts with the Angels.

Pitcher

Fans don’t vote for pitchers, either starting pitchers or relievers. That stuff all gets sorted out behind the scenes while trying to juggle between actually deserving players and making sure that at least one player from each team is able to be named to an All-Star roster. We certainly shouldn’t expect any Orioles starting pitchers to make the cut. Although some are trending better lately, that’s going to be no competition against guys who’ve been getting it done all year.

Since the above was largely a bummer, I do want to shout out the one guy on the Orioles who probably deserves to make an All-Star roster, and if things are more or less the same in about a month as they are right now, he probably will be the only Orioles All-Star this year. That’s Rico Garcia. He went 11 straight outings to start the year without allowing a hit and even now, batters are hitting just .083/.172/.155 against him for the season. That’s a 0.68 ERA and 0.608 WHIP. Good stuff.

It won’t be great if Garcia is the only Orioles All-Star. Hopefully June and onward go better for the team, such that by season’s end it looks silly that they only had one All-Star.

The Yankees are calling up prospect Spencer Jonesto takeAaron Judge's spot on the roster, reports Jack Curry of YES.

Judge has been shut down for four-to-six weeks due to a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side. He will be reimaged after the end of the shutdown period to determine his level of healing and appropriate next steps, with the expectation that he'll return this season.

With Judge on the shelf, Jones figures to play nearly every day in the outfield along with Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham.

Jones, 25, struggled earlier this season in his first taste of the majors, hitting just .167/.259/.167 with 12 strikeouts in 27 plate appearances over 10 games.

Strikeouts have been an issue for Jones throughout his minor league career, overshadowing the prodigious power he possesses.

In 43 games this season for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Jones is hitting .269/.378/.571 with 13 homers, but he has struck out 60 times. 

Jones fanned 179 times in 116 games last season as he split time between Triple-A and Double-A Somerset.

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The San Francisco Giants have dominated the Chicago Cubs in recent memory, but the hosts will grab a victory in today's series opener at Wrigley Field. 

My Giants vs Cubs predictions will explain why Chicago, which is a -156 favorite today, is in a prime position to take this contest, with Robbie Ray on the mound for San Francisco. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, June 5. 

Who will win Giants vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (+120)

The Chicago Cubs will face San Francisco Giants left-hander Robbie Ray this afternoon. He's struggled lately, compiling a 5.85 FIP across his last two starts, and he also owns a 6.24 SIERA during that span.

Ray has completely lost his command (10.13 BB/9), forcing him to serve his offerings on a silver platter over the heart of the plate.

Additionally, 47.6% of his contact over the last 14 days has come through the air, with 10% of those fly balls leaving the yard. That's concerning against a Cubs offense that ranks 12th in home runs, setting him up for a rough day at the office against Chicago's 43.1% hard-hit rate over the last week, while carrying a 107 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

The real edge is Edward Cabrera's pitch mix returning to Wrigley Field, where he has a 3.89 FIP this season while limiting contact in the air to just 34%.

I'll play this pick to +100.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubs can pull away late against a Giants' bullpen boasting a 5.23 xFIP over the last two weeks. 

Giants vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 10.5 runs (+100)

My secondary lean is the Under. While I expect the Cubs to generate offense against Ray, Chicago's pitching staff should be capable of limiting the damage on the other side. With Cabrera returning from the IL, he will likely be on a short leash, and he's failed to pitch more than 4 2/3 innings in either of his last two outings.

That means the Cubs bullpen will play a significant role, and that's hardly a concern. Chicago's relievers own a 3.20 FIP over the last seven days while holding opponents to a .169 ISO and just 0.43 home runs per nine innings.

The Giants haven't shown much power on the road either, carrying a .157 ISO away from home in 2026. If Chicago's bullpen continues its recent form, San Francisco will struggle to generate enough offense to push this game beyond the total.

I'll play this pick to -110. 

Giants vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Giants +150 | Cubs -156
• Run line: Giants +1.5 (-127) | Cubs -1.5 (+122)
• Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-113) | Under 10.5 (+108)

Giants vs Cubs trend

The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Cubs.

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Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers were off yesterday.

Evan Grant writes that the team expects BOTH Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford back in action on Friday.

Grant’s weekly Rangers stock report claims a volatile Burger index.

Grant also answered a bunch of Rangers questions in his weekly live stream.

Jim Callis’ latest mock draft has the Rangers taking a Kentucky shortstop.

And Rob Manfred sees a storm coming.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a series against the Guardians tonight with Kumar Rocker on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

I definitely can recall a time, back in the cooler days of spring, when I used to forget that Taylor Ward was in the lineup. Acquired last November for Grayson Rodriguez to Anaheim, I was pretty uninterested in Taylor Ward, and I felt bad for Rodriguez. In general, the trade felt to me hasty, a little wasteful, and cruel to a homegrown arm.

Well, that take has aged pretty badly, because Ward has quietly become a reliable leadoff man, and one of the most interesting hitters on the team. (If you were wondering about Rodriguez, by the way, here.) The moral: I guess we should read the transaction wire more carefully.

The raw numbers are solid without being flashy, brought down of late by an 0-for-14 skid. But a batting average hovering around .252 with an OBP north of .400, MLB-Top 3 walk totals, and a thoughtful approach at the plate has been a genuine asset at the top of a lineup that’s sorely lacked in consistency. In early May he set an O’s record with 40 walks through his first 40 games (topping the previous mark of 39 set by Albert Belle). The power, though, has been nearly absent—or at least diminished: after posting a career-high 36 home runs with the Angels a year ago, Ward has cleared the wall only twice this season. The homers have turned into doubles: 16, tied for fourth in the AL.

What’s changed for Ward at the plate?

Discipline metrics tell much of the story. The headlining number is Ward’s walk rate: 19.2%, a career high by a wide margin, and third among all 163 qualifying hitters in baseball, trailing only Mike Trout and the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz. A walk rate that extreme does not happen by accident, and the underlying swing data reveal a player who has fundamentally remade his approach.

Ward’s Swing% sits at 31.1%, a career low, meaning he is offering at far fewer pitches than at any point in his career. His O-Swing% (swings at pitches outside the zone) is 12%, the only time in nine seasons it has not exceeded 20%. His Z-Swing% (swings at pitches inside the zone) has fallen to 50.8%, another career low. In other words, Ward is not even chasing good pitches unless they are precisely what he is looking for. And when he does pull the trigger on pitches in the zone? He is making contact at a 90.8% clip — a career best.

The profile that emerges is of a hitter who is extraordinarily choosy but, when he has identified the pitch he wants, is not missing it. And he’s not selling out for power, either. Alongside a strikeout rate near its career low, his launch angle is at a career low, too, and his average exit velocity is unspectacular. Ward is taking walks. Or he’s finding the gap. He’s not swinging for the fences.

What explains the transformation? The change is intentional, as you’d guess. Ward himself cites three factors: offseason mechanical work to produce a line-drive approach, more intensive pregame prep on how pitchers plan to nibble outside the zone, and the new Automated Ball-Strike challenge system, which he says has encouraged umpires to stay closer to the true zone all season. Let’s dwell on that last point for a second.

The ABS system, new in 2026, uses Hawk-Eye cameras and a slightly hitter-friendly strike zone calibrated to each player’s height. One big implication is that pitches that clip the outer edge at the front of the plate and then dive out of the zone are no longer called strikes. And new hitting coach Dustin Lind has a documented track record of reducing chase rates wherever he has worked: he helped the Giants drop their chase rate from 31.2% to 24.2% between 2019 and 2021, and brought a similar philosophy to the Phillies in 2024.

One further downstream effect of Ward’s extreme selectivity is that it forces pitchers to throw strikes. When a hitter lays off breaking balls and borderline pitches with Ward’s consistency, opposing pitchers face an uncomfortable choice — walk him or attack him with fastballs. This season, fastballs have constituted 59.3% of the pitches Ward has seen, and he is hitting .309 against them. Ward’s choosiness, in other words, is producing, not just walks, but also an advantageous pitch mix. He is laying off the curveball, getting the heater, and doing something productive with it. (Now, can Colton Cowser do the same?)

So there you have it: Taylor Ward, a player we were all mostly uninterested in, showed up to town in his ninth big-league season, at age 32, with a brand-new skill set. Granted, he arrived in Baltimore with a reputation for power, and that power is somewhat dormant, unless you really like doubles. (For the record, I do like doubles.) Ward may or may not be a household name in Birdland, but he is on this team—and, in fact, batting leadoff most nights—and he has been one of the most quietly excellent hitters in the American League all season. Time to start paying attention.

This question is very clearly prompted by last night’s loss, where the Blue Jays (surprisingly?) did not BABIP over .500… but they got pretty close.

There was a game the Braves lost to the Red Sox recently — the 8-0 shellacking, where the Red Sox had a .400 BABIP, and the Braves had a .208 BABIP. Not quite double, but yeah, that’ll do it in terms of the 8-0 score. To be more sophisticated about it, the Braves didn’t really “get screwed” in that one, as the Red Sox had a .400+ xwOBA and actually slightly underhit it… though it is worth noting that the Braves had a .213 wOBA on a .359 xwOBA — their second-biggest underperformance of the season so far.

So, when yesterday’s game against the Blue Jays transpired, even before the Reynaldo Lopez “implosion” in the ninth, it was reminiscent of something from the prior week. With the dust settled, here’s what we got:

• Blue Jays BABIP (i.e., Braves BABIP-against): .485, a season-high BABIP-against for Atlanta
• Braves BABIP: .125, third-lowest.

That’s a ratio of nearly 4.00! That’s tough to overcome. What about outputs versus inputs?

• Blue Jays: .398 wOBA on a .319 xwOBA, the third-highest gap the Braves have allowed this year.
• Braves: .213 wOBA on a .259 xwOBA.

So, in some ways, the result wasn’t surprising. But the Blue Jays still got some very unjust deserts, and the Braves’ luck went the other way.

Still, that .485 BABIP is very high. It made me curious: how often do the Braves suffer the indignity of a .500+ BABIP-against?

The answer is “a few times a season, except 2023 where they didn’t have any, and 2024, where they somehow had six against them.” Weirdly, there was only one such game in the misery that was last season; you’d think will the stuff the team had to deal with, it would’ve been way higher in 2025 than, say, 2024.

They haven’t had one in 2026 yet. Will they? If they do, and “patterns” are meaningful (they aren’t), it might come soon. Three of the Braves’ six highest BABIP-against games have come in the last week-ish, and are in fact the team’s only losses in that span. There was the aforementioned game in Boston, then there was the Ronald Acuña Jr. defensive issues crammed into nine innings game in Cincinnati, and then last night’s game. But, will they have another that actually comes when the opponent BABIPs .500+? If so, when?