Category: Baseball

Here are five things to watch, plus predictions as the Mets and the Cincinnati Reds play a three-game series at Citi Field starting Monday at 4:10 p.m.

THINGS TO WATCH

Pivotal start? 

Nolan McLean starts Monday’s game looking to rebound after a dreadful outing in Washington his last time out. Gifted a five-run lead in that game, McLean could not hold it, leading to another disappointing Met loss. McLean allowed nine runs (six earned) and eight hits in 5.2 innings. Both were career-worsts. He also gave up two home runs, only the second time in his brief career he’s been hit for more than one in any start.

The Mets, coming off a 2-5 road trip that ended with getting swept in Miami, could really use an ace-level bounce-back from McLean. The 27-25 Reds, as a lineup, generally do not chase, so it’ll be fascinating to see how they react when McLean uses his otherworldly ability to spin the baseball.

Which will give? 

Two things that are true at once: The Mets often have trouble scoring runs. And the Reds have trouble stopping opponents from scoring runs. So the Mets should score against Cincy’s pitching staff, which is 25th in overall ERA (4.78), 29th in bullpen ERA (5.04) and has allowed the third-most home runs and the third-most walks. 

Shouldn’t they? 

We’ll see, of course. The Mets after all, are coming off a series in which they scored all of two runs against the Marlins, had just 11 hits in three games and mustered just nine total at-bats with runners in scoring position. The Mets are averaging 3.89 runs this season, fifth-lowest in baseball.

I’m (not) walkin’ here!

The Mets drew five walks in their loss Sunday, which is somewhat relevant because they had walked just seven times in their previous five games combined. This is a team with the keen-eyed Juan Soto as a lineup linchpin, mind you, even if he missed Sunday’s loss with illness. MLB pitchers are averaging 3.6 walks per nine innings, so the Mets have been missing on their fair share lately, whether it’s because of an approach flaw or running into a spate of precise pitching. Whatever the case, a few more free passes obviously would add something to a mostly punchless offense. The Mets enter this series with the worst on-base percentage (.293) in baseball. The MLB average is .318.

Rookie comp

McLean figures to be a candidate for NL Rookie of the Year and the Reds have one of their own, too, in first baseman Sal Stewart, who is a big part of a Cincy offense that is scoring 4.40 runs per game, slightly above the MLB average. It’ll be fun to watch McLean versus Stewart with their elite rookie status in mind.

Stewart leads NL rookies in homers, RBI, slugging and OPS and has also stolen 10 bases in 11 tries. Overall, Stewart is 10th in the NL in RBI with 34, one fewer than his teammate, Elly De La Cruz.

Chase rates

Chase Burns, who is scheduled to start Tuesday’s game, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball at only 23 years old. The Reds’ righty is having a huge season, ranking fourth in the majors in ERA (1.83) and fifth in WHIP (0.95). He is 6-1 and has won five straight decisions. 

His road ERA (1.46) is second only to Cam Schlittler of the Yankees, who has a 1.04 mark. Burns relies mostly on a 98 mile-per-hour fastball and a slider. He’s finished off 97 plate appearances with his slider and struck out 44 batters with it. Opponents are batting .137 against the slider and .183 overall. 

Burns, the second overall pick in the 2024 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Wake Forest, has never faced the Mets, so their hitters will have to rely on video for prep and not their personal experience. It’ll be a difficult solve for the Mets – Burns is allowing only 5.8 hits per nine innings this season.

PREDICTONS

Who will be the series MVP?

AJ Ewing: Yes, he’s been striking out some – he’s got seven straight games with at least one whiff and fanned five times in 11 plate appearances against the Marlins. But he’s still getting on base and his speed game could impact the Mets offense – the Reds have only thrown out nine would-be thieves in 48 stolen-base attempts (19 percent, five percent worse than league average).

What Mets pitcher will have the best start? 

Nolan McLean: He’s hyper-competitive, so his yearning to wash away the memory of his poor start against the Nationals, plus his elite talent, should mean a big outing.

Which Reds player will be a thorn in the Mets side? 

Elly De La Cruz: One of the most exciting players in baseball, De La Cruz hits the ball extremely hard (he’s seventh in average exit velocity, a few ticks better than Aaron Judge). The Mets have held him to a .196 average across 14 previous games, so maybe he’s due. De La Cruz has 25 extra-base hits (ninth in MLB) and he’s seventh in runs scored and 12th in RBI. 

For most of this season, the Nationals formula for success has been scoring runs in bunches. After all, they have scored the most runs in all of baseball. However, with the bats being quiet this weekend in Atlanta, the Nats had to find a different way to win. They did just that by outpitching the Braves en route to a series win.

It was a true team effort from the pitching staff, but the rotation was especially elite. If you count Miles Mikolas’ bulk relief appearance, Nats starters went 16 innings without allowing a run to the Braves offense. Given the firepower Atlanta has, that is extremely impressive. Mikolas, Jake Irvin and Foster Griffin all stepped up in a huge way.

Sure, the Nats have allowed the most runs in all of baseball, but the pitching staff has been very solid the past month. Since April 25th, Nationals pitchers have posted a 4.01 ERA. That is not elite by any means, but it is good enough with this offense. Fans have been wondering what this Nats team would be like with average pitching, and well we have seen it for the last month. The Nats are 16-11 since April 25th, when they started getting that solid pitching. 

While the Nats have allowed the most runs in the league, not all of that is on this pitching staff. The Nats have a 4.80 team ERA, which is actually only the fifth worst in the league. A big reason they lead the league in runs allowed is their leaky defense. We are still seeing plenty of defensive miscues, but hopefully that can improve like the pitching has.

The last two games of the Braves series were particularly excellent for the pitching staff. After a rough extra inning loss on Friday, where the bullpen could not hold on, the Nats needed a good start from Jake Irvin. That is exactly what they got, with the big right hander firing 5 hitless innings with 7 strikeouts. Irvin’s curveball had Braves hitters fighting for their lives and the fastball velocity was up.

However, Irvin had to come out of the game with an injury after 5 innings. With a depleted bullpen, Blake Butera had to rely on Brad Lord to give them length. As he usually does, Lord came through for his team, firing off three scoreless innings. Yesterday, I wrote about how important Lord is to this team and how much I love his no-nonsense style on the mound. 

Richard Lovelady got a big save on Saturday to finish that game off. Lovelady saw action in all three games this series. He was mostly excellent. In his first two outings, Lovelady threw two clean innings, one as an opener and the other as a closer. He came in to try and close out the finale as well. Lovelady got the ground ball he needed to end the game, but Nasim Nunez booted it. Eventually, he was pulled for Orlando Ribalta, who saved the day.

Lovelady has been a huge part of this bullpen since being picked up through the waiver process from the Mets. Since joining the Nats, Lovelady has a 1.72 ERA in 16 outings. Sure, he sometimes puts himself in messy situations, but he has been able to make the big pitch when he has needed it more times than not.

One of the heroes of yesterday’s win was Foster Griffin. As we all know, Griffin got off to an electric start before his ERA took a beating in his last two outings. The 30 year old southpaw got back on track in a big way yesterday. He fired 6 scoreless frames in the rain, in a badly needed bounceback outing. Griffin’s command was on point yesterday, rarely missing in the middle of the plate with any of his 7 pitches.

This was an outing that Griffin needed to show the world that he is no fluke. After coming over from Japan, he flummoxed hitters through his first 8 outings. However, it looked like the league was starting to figure him out in his previous two starts. Yesterday, Griffin showed that when he is locating, there are not many answers against him.

Location and execution was key all weekend. Mikolas, Irvin and Griffin were all locating at an extremely high level. That helped them carve through a Braves lineup that has been excellent for most of the season. With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson slumping, the Nats may have caught the Braves at the right time, but the Nats pitchers are also part of the reason for these slumps.

The bullpen was more up and down than the rotation this weekend, but in 2 of the 3 games, they got the job done. Clayton Beeter looked extremely sharp in his first two outings off the IL. The previously mentioned Lovelady and Lord were also key parts of this series win.

However, a big shoutout has to go to Orlando Ribalta, who saved the day yesterday. He came into a bases loaded, one out situation with a one run lead. The Cuban righty was able to make the lead stick and win the game for the Nats. Ribalta struck out Friday’s walk off hero Chadwick Tromp, before getting Acuna to break his bat and roll a grounder to first to give the Nats the series win.

Ribalta has been very impressive this season. He has a 2.31 ERA in 12 outings, and has gotten his team out of some big jams lately. In my opinion, Ribalta has the best stuff of anyone in the bullpen. His fastball is in the upper 90’s, his slider is sharp and he also will throw a nasty changeup at times. The key for him this season has been improved strike-throwing.

In the past, control has been a big issue for the 6’7 right hander. However, he has been throwing a lot of strikes this season. His walk rate has gone from 14.2% to a much more manageable 8.5%. With his stuff, Ribalta is tough to hit when he is throwing strikes. Outside of a couple outings where he allowed some unlucky hits and briefly lost his command, Ribalta has been money.

At the beginning of the season, this pitching staff was a massive question mark. It felt like Blake Butera did not have any answers to turn to, but that has changed. This pitching staff is not elite by any means, but they have been solid for about a month now. They picked up the offense in a big way this weekend, but most of the time, average pitching will be good enough with this lineup.

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The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals get together for an early-week series starting this afternoon.

This series has intrigue, and this pitching matchup between two arms that have overperformed their underlying metrics is no exception.

My Yankees vs. Royals predictions see the Bombers getting the best of the hosts in this spot. Read all about it in my MLB picks for Monday, May 25, and don't miss first pitch at 3:40 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Who will win Yankees vs Royals today: Yankees moneyline (-140)

Kansas City Royals arm Michael Wacha is the perfect example of "does nothing great but does mostly everything well." That's typically a good quality for a starter, but it's also why his expected ERA sits over a full run higher than his actual mark, screaming negative regression. 

A below-average barrel rate (8.2%) and hard-hit rate (39%) are troubling against the team that ranks first in baseball in both categories.

When these two met in the Bronx in April, two of the three hardest-hit balls by New York Yankees hitters came off Wacha and resulted in unlucky line-outs. Play to -170.

COVERS INTEL:Will Warren's 5.9% walk rate sits in the 86th percentile, which limits free baserunners against a Royals offense that already struggles to manufacture rallies on its own.

Yankees vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9 (-110)

This is a touch high.

I haven't been thrilled about backing Warren this year, but his 86th-percentile strikeout rate should play well here against a Royals lineup with limited barrel threats. This means Warren should generate plenty of swing-and-miss. 

While I like the Yankees to get after Wacha, the story of the season so far for New York is at play here: There's still a good amount of easy outs at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. I made the total 8.7; this is not a huge edge but playable nonetheless. 

Yankees vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -145 | Royals +118 
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Royals +1.5 
• Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9 

Yankees vs Royals trend

The Yankees have won all 10 of their last 10 head-to-head matchups with Kansas City, covering the -1.5 run line in all but two of those meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.

How to watch Yankees vs Royals and game info

Yankees vs Royals latest injuries

Yankees vs Royals weather

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Fernando Tatis Jr. stepped into the batter’s box with the San Diego Padres trailing the Athletics 5-2 in the final game of the series at Petco Park on Sunday. Jackson Merrill and Ramon Laureano were on base after drawing walks and Tatis represented the tying run that could have sparked a ninth inning walk-off win or at least sent the game into extra innings. The Friar Faithful wanted to see their homerless superstar connect on a game-tying home run that would have ended his drought and propelled Tatis to a power surge to end the month. Instead, Tatis hit a 2-0 fastball on the outer half of the plate into right field. Jesse Agler calling the game on 9.3 The Fan, described the ball as high, but not deep and it came down into the glove of Athletics right fielder Lawrence Butler to give San Diego a three-run loss. If you look at the box score, Tatis had a good day at the plate, finishing 3-for-5 but it is the final at-bat that will be talked about more than any other.

The Padres were able to collect nine hits in the game but were unable to push a run across the plate until the bottom of the sixth inning. Miguel Andujar led off the inning with a double and that was followed by a Gavin Sheets groundout, which pushed Andujar to third base. Manny Machado was able to lift a flyball deep into left field that allowed Andujar to tag up and score from third. Xander Bogaerts singled with two outs in the inning and was able to steal second base, but Merrill grounded out to end the inning, one batter later.

San Diego was trailing 4-1 when the Padres came to the plate in the bottom of the seventh inning. Ty France changed that when he hit a one-out solo home run to right field to make the score, 4-2. A popout by Rodolfo Duran and a groundout by Tatis ended the inning.

San Diego had to claw out of a 4-0 deficit after Michael King went just 3.2 innings and allowed four runs on five hits with four walks and four strikeouts. It was not what anyone expected to see from King following his fabulous seven-inning start against the Los Angeles Dodgers his last time out. King had trouble throwing his changeup for strikes and he was unable to make the necessary adjustment to get control before throwing 81 pitches and being removed from the game.

The Padres bullpen did well under the circumstances. Ron Marinaccio pitched three scoreless innings allowing one hit, one walk and two strikeouts. Wandy Peralta followed with 1.1 scoreless innings with one hit, one walk and two strikeouts. Bradgley Rodriguez came on in the ninth and surrendered a run one three hits to put the Athletics ahead, 5-2 but he did record three strikeouts while walking one.

Bogaerts and France joined Tatis with multiple hits int the game. They each had two hits, while Andujar and Sheets chipped in with one hit apiece.

The Padres open a series against the Philadelphia Philles today at Petco Park at 3:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• It was a tough day in the San Diego minor league system as all four full-season minor league teams took losses.

• The Padres could be looking to bolster their bullpen with a trade partner from within the division.

Baseball News:

• Aaron Judge hits walk-off home run to lead the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto led the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 5-1 win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

• The Miami Marlins got a walk-off grand slam to beat the New York Mets, 4-0.

• Corbin Carroll hit two triples and helped the Arizona Diamondbacks get a 9-1 win over the Colorado Rockies.

• Former Dodgers player Chris Taylor retired, unretired and has now retired again.

• The Minnesota Twins completed a sweep of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

• Dylan Cease and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited the game early and the Toronto Blue Jays lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 4-1.

The Orioles getting swept by the Rays was a lightning rod to attract a lot of criticism about the way the Orioles have been doing things so far this year. This was so true that even MASN’s Ben McDonald, who gets his paycheck from a team-owned entity, was fired up enough to unload about analytics on a post-game show after the sweep.

In this week’s episode of the podcast, I’m thinking about what McDonald had to say about the team and why a lot of ultimately misguided attitudes are flowing from that. I’m also thinking about an article that was in The Baltimore Banner the day after McDonald’s rant that suggested that no changes will be coming to the Orioles offensive philosophy because that “would be an admission of failure that … would only lend credence to the criticisms” of the front office.

For me, that was a disheartening article, and I try to get into why in this episode. High-level baseball is a game of constant adjustments, where you see how they’re responding to what you’re doing and then you respond to that, and then they respond to your response, and so on down the line. Perhaps if it seems like the Orioles are poorly adapting, it’s because Jon Meoli’s report that the front office doesn’t think there’s a need to adapt. If that’s the case, then Mike Elias has staked a lot on this season, and if it stays on the failure path, he shouldn’t get another season at the helm.

Listen to this week’s episode here:

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This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of the next episode of the podcast.

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It's another week, and it's time to look at home runs differently after a severe cold snap. I'm targeting the best bats in the best form all week, as trying to fade starters and bullpens has not been a winning strategy early in the season. It's time to get another perspective while also using Covers' MLB player prop projections.

Jake Burger has homered in four straight series and gets a struggling Tatsuya Imai, whose HR/FB rate is one of the worst in baseball. Add that to a pair of ace hitters in good matchups, and we've got a home run stew brewing. 

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Monday, May 25. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Julio Rodriguez	+364
Yandy Diaz	+640
Jake Burger	+494
💲Today's HR parlay	+18229

Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+364)

This one checks a lot of boxes and is a great way to start the week. Julio Rodríguez is in great form with the 18th-best slugging mark in baseball over the last week and the 15th-best BlastContact rate. He went deep yesterday at Kauffman Stadium and has multiple hits in three of his last four games.

He also gets the best hitting environment on the slate in Sacramento, with double-digit winds blowing out to center at 13 mph.

He’ll get a crack at Aaron Civale, who has allowed five home runs over his last two starts. J-Rod has also done damage against the Athletics starter in a solid sample, going 7-for-15 with a homer across 15 at-bats.

The +EV dinger carries a fair price around +300. It’s a great number for a late-night Memorial Day bomb.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+640)

There is only one bat with a better slugging percentage over the last seven days than Yandy Diaz, who also ranks 22nd in BlastContact% over that stretch.

He looks fine after missing a game following a pitch off the hand last Thursday and delivered a two-hit day yesterday, including a double, vs. the Yankees. He has gone deep three times over his last seven games with four doubles and just two strikeouts against three walks.

There is a slight chance of rain in Baltimore, but conditions still feature 75-degree temperatures and light winds blowing out. A strong angle here is that Diaz just saw Kyle Bradish in his last start and tagged him for a home run and a double in three plate appearances. Both balls were crushed, with the homer leaving the bat at 111.3 mph and the double at 113.7 mph. That familiarity edge is firmly in Diaz’s favor today.

Diaz has also seen Bradish 22 times in his career and is hitting .455 off him overall. It’s one of the hottest bats in baseball in a matchup he has already handled well, at a strong price point.

• Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Rays.TV

Home run pick: Jake Burger (+494)

Jake Burger is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball and gets a strong matchup vs. a struggling starter in Tatsuya Imai and a Houston Astros bullpen that has allowed the most home runs in baseball, with 37 across 217 innings of work.

Burger ranks 20th in slugging over the last two weeks while also posting one of the best BlastContact rates in baseball over that same span. He draws an indoor setting vs. Imai, who is still adjusting to North American baseball, carries one of the worst HR/FB rates among MLB starters, and has already allowed four home runs in just over 17 innings.

Imai has shown little ability to work deep into games, and the bullpen behind him offers limited relief, especially if Houston is forced into its secondary arms.

Burger has homered in four straight series and just saw the Astros 10 days ago, where he collected seven total bases in 11 at-bats, giving him a familiarity edge. I have this fair price around +400, giving clear room on this home run prop.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, RSN

Today’s HR parlay

Julio Rodriguez	Bet Now +18229
Yandy Diaz
Jake Burger

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When the Mets’ 2026 season began, some fans were more confident than others in the potential of the roster that David Stearns built for the season. Among our contributors, though, nobody was predicting that the team would be this bad. The fact that it’s Memorial Day and we’re looking at trade chips is wild, but here we are.

On Friday morning, the Mets woke up in fourth place in the National League East, having won their series finale against the Nationals the day before while the Marlins lost to the Braves. With a three-game series in Miami starting that night, they had the opportunity to stay ahead of Miami with a series win. They were swept by the Marlins instead, returned to the cellar in the division, and they’re 22-31 and trailing Miami by two-and-a-half games.

It sure seems like the team should prioritize player development rather than pretend a comeback season is in the cards, and to their credit, the Mets have started calling up players from the minors to give them major league experience. It would be surprising to see them fully admit that they are sellers this early in the season, but with pitchers being their best trade chips and the tendency for pitchers to get hurt, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to start making moves now rather than at the trade deadline.

The best trade chips

Freddy Peralta: The 29-year-old was one of the Mets’ biggest additions over the winter, and while he hasn’t replicated his sub-3.00 ERA from his career year in 2025, he’s been his usual self. That’s a pitcher who rarely goes much longer than five innings, carries an ERA somewhere in the mid-to-upper threes, and takes his turn in the rotation every time.

He isn’t an ace, as he ranks 34th among 71 qualified starting pitchers in ERA and 45th in FIP, but he’d be useful to a team that has a need in its rotation and a deep bullpen. You’d have to figure the Mets would get at least a decent return, especially if they were to trade him soon, in spite of the fact that Peralta will hit free agency after the season. It doesn’t hurt that he’s on an $8 million salary this year, either.

Brooks Raley: Since joining the Mets ahead of the 2023 season, the 37-year-old left-handed reliever has a 2.26 ERA that ranks fourth in baseball among relievers who’ve thrown at least 100 innings. Yes, he missed a huge chunk of the 2024 and 2025 seasons because of Tommy John surgery, but he looks even better right now than he did in his very good 2022 season with the Rays and in the 2023 season with the Mets.

Like Peralta, Raley is a rental who’s on an affordable contract, having signed a two-year, $6.25 million deal while he was in the midst of Tommy John recovery ahead of the 2025 season. His 1.35 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 20.0 innings this season should make him appealing to a contender.

Potentially appealing options

David Peterson: Mets fans might be over the David Peterson experience, but the lefty has started to turn things around after an abysmal start to his age-30 season. Since the first outing that saw him work with an opener ahead of him, he has a 4.08 ERA in 28.2 innings of work. That stretch included one traditional start that went terribly, but his most recent outing was a traditional start that went well. Nobody’s likely to treat him like the All-Star pitcher that he was last year thanks to a great first half, but with free agency looming at the end of this season, Peterson could be appealing to a contender, especially if he strings together a few more encouraging outings.

Luke Weaver: Signed to a two-year, $22 million deal ahead of this season, Weaver would be a bit of an unorthodox trade chip, but the 32-year-old is looking nearly identical to the very good reliever he was with the Yankees in 2024 and 2025. In The Bronx, he had a 3.21 ERA and a 3.58 FIP over the course of those two seasons, and he has a 3.22 ERA and a 3.40 FIP in 22.1 innings thus far with the Mets. Sure, trading him would weaken the Mets’ bullpen for 2027, but if another organization were willing to send the Mets a real prospect to get Weaver now, it shouldn’t be too challenging to find a similar reliever in free agency this winter.

Huascar Brazobán: A versatile reliever who’s been incredibly helpful to the Mets this season, the 36-year-old would be an intriguing trade chip. He’s under team control through the end of the 2029 season, and he’s having the best year of his career thus far by ERA and FIP. Late-breakout relievers are fun players to root for, and it would be a bit of a bummer to see him pitching elsewhere for the next few years, especially if he’s anywhere near as good as his current 1.73 ERA. But if the Mets decided this was a good time to sell high, it would be understandable.

Some long shots

The question here is really whether or not another team sees something in a player who’s objectively been bad that they think they can fix. Marcus Semien looks like he’s toast at the plate, but maybe the glove-first sales pitch that was given to Mets fans at the time the team traded Brandon Nimmo for him can work on another team—if the Mets eat all or the vast majority of the final three years of the seven-year, $175 million deal he signed with the Rangers.

Mark Vientos and Brett Baty are both in their age-26 season, and neither one has done anything to indicate they can replicate the lone two-win season each of them had in the past. Vientos was worth 2.9 fWAR in 2024 as he hit 27 home runs with a 132 wRC+ and had his best defensive season at third base. Since then, however, he has a 95 wRC+, and he’s been worth -0.3 fWAR so far this season thanks to his struggles both at the plate and in the field.

Baty’s success is more recent, as he was worth 2.3 fWAR last year, and he only made 432 plate appearances to get to that point. A small part of the reason for that playing time was the fact that he was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse early in the season, but he was much better after that brief demotion. Still, he’s sporting a 92 wRC+ so far this year and has been worth just 0.2 fWAR.

These are shots in the dark at best, and if any of these three players can be traded, the Mets could benefit from clearing up some of an infield logjam that’s had square pegs for round holes for too long, a problem exacerbated by the deliberate decisions the front office made between the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

The Phillies are headed out west this week to take on the Padres and the Dodgers. They aren’t exactly playing the greatest baseball right now at the plate, so playing two teams as good as them isn’t promising. However, the Phillies have at times risen to their competition on the west coast, particularly when playing these two teams.

Let’s not talk about Arizona and San Francisco.

So, what are your expectations while they are out west? Do you see the team getting up for the games and playing/hitting better, or will it be a slow, painful, tiresome watch? At least in San Diego, they should have the pitching advantage most games and the Padres are probably a worse offensive team than the Phillies. In Los Angeles, well, at least they’re going to have Zack Wheeler throwing in one game.

We’ve reached the point where I feel like I’m part of the problem. Not as far as the on the field product of course. What is happening there belongs to this team and this front office. But I feel like a very small part of some of your fandom. Right now I feel about like I told you that it was okay to cross the street and you were hit by a car while crossing the street. For what little it’s worth, I’m blindsided too.

I’ve used the story of Lucy moving the football so many times in the past. But I think almost always, it was a story about an individual game. I don’t think I’ve ever felt a whole season was Lucy moving the football. A few days ago, I was reminded for the first time of the 2021 Cubs. But even there, as I said it, I thought it was just a shadow of a memory. Even when that season was going good, it wasn’t going as good as this season was when it was going good.

It feels completely in possible that the 2o-3 stretch that is literally the best stretch of Cubs baseball any of us have ever experienced was literally fools gold. Even as I type it, it’s impossible to comprehend. The gold standard of recent Cub teams, the 2016 team, had a stretch of nine losses in 10 games as part of a 5-15 stretch. So there is precedent for a good Cub team going through this. But at this point, we are further back than square one. Whereas that team had clear championship aspirations and all kinds of good will built up, this one has used up all of its currency.

I’m not one really for histrionics or hyperbole. Obviously, there are more than 100 games left in this season. If the season ended right now, this team would hold the last wild card spot. They are obviously very much alive for that pursuit. I still think that this team likely ends up there. But, I am 100 percent a realist. I would not have entertained a world in which this team was a seller at the deadline this year and I’m seeing that as a very real possibility right now. I knew that the injuries to the pitching staff had completely undermined what this front office was trying to do. But I thought there was enough depth to survive it, even if it diminished the upside for this team.

It is no longer out of the question that this team is a seller. Stunning. This team has now lost seven games in row in which the Fangraphs Cub schedule win probability showed the Cubs favored to win. That by itself is staggering. They are headed on a road trip now where the initial impression is that they lose five of seven. Edward Cabrera is lost to them for this road trip. Losing five or more games doesn’t seem insane. If that happens, this team comes home out of the Wild Card position. I’m not sure it can perpetuate the consistent winning baseball to overcome a scrum to land in one of those Wild Card positions at this point.

I seriously can’t remember a quicker rise and fall in the years of my baseball fandom. I could draw some comparisons to the Bears teams of the late 80’s. But this is just flabbergasting. Suddenly, I hope that in a few weeks I look back and laugh about the last Sunday in May when I jumped ship prematurely. How did we get here?

Three Positives:

• Michael Busch had a single, a two-run homer and drew a walk.
• Pedro Ramirez got his first big league start and marked it with a double, an RBI, a run scored and even drew a walk.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong had three walks and a sacrifice fly. He drove in one and scored another.

Game 53,May 24: Astros 8, Cubs 5 (29-24)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Carson Kelly (.130). 2-4, R
• Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.111). 0-1, 3 BB, SF, RBI, R
• Sidekick: Michael Busch (.064). 2-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.520). 6 IP, 26 BF, 7 H, BB, 7 ER, 6 K, HBP (L 4-5)
• Goat: Michael Conforto (-.118). 0-4
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.094). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: The Cubs were leading by one when Jeremy Peña singled with the bases loaded and two outs in the fifth. Two runs scored and the Astros would go on to score five. (.253)

Cubs Play of the Game: Pedro Ramirez batted with runners on the corners, the Cubs down one in the second with one out. He doubled and a run scored to tie the game, on the way to three runs for the Cubs. (.129)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 52 Winner: Colin Rea received 66 of 90 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +17
• Michael Conforto/Nico Hoerner +12
• Trent Thornton +7.5
• Shōta Imanaga +7
• Ryan Rolison -8
• Phil Maton -9
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -11
• Seiya Suzuki -22.5

Current Win Pace: 88.64 wins

Up Next: The Cubs travel to Pittsburgh for four games, starting with a Memorial Day afternoon game. The Pirates won Sunday and are 27-26. Ben Brown (1-2, 2.09, 38.2 IP) has started two of the last three games that the Cubs have won. That despite the fact that he lost to the Brewers in his start, allowing three runs in five innings. He battled in that one and has looked great as a starter. No pressure, but this team really needs Ben to step up in this spot.

The opposition is 27-year-old Carmen Mlodzinski (4-3, 3.96, 50 IP). The competitive balance pick of the Pirates in the 2020 draft (30th overall) out of South Carolina has won his last two starts, beating the Cardinals and Rockies. He’s had three very good starts in a row after three rough ones over the last two weeks of April and first week of May. Back on April 10, he held the Cubs scoreless over 5.1 innings in Chicago.

It doesn’t get much better after this. Find a way. Stop the skid.

A very low-effort question for when folks should probably be anywhere else but here… especially given the off-day, even if it is a U.S. federal holiday and all.

Which is really the question itself. It’s a holiday, which usually means MLB has a full slate of games, often afternoon games. Yet, MLB does not have a full slate of games, with four teams off. The Braves are one of those four. Last year, on Memorial Day, MLB had six teams off, and the Braves were one of those. Basically, for scheduling purposes, MLB doesn’t treat Memorial Day as a special occasion, but just a semi-regular Monday that includes some travel days. I say semi-regular because while there are more day games, it’s not overwhelmingly day games. Labor Day this year is similar, with a handful of teams off, though there are more day games. (Juneteenth is on a Friday and the Fourth of July is on a Saturday, so hard to talk about other holiday schedules this year.)

Anyway, does it strike you as odd that MLB didn’t make a concerted effort to have a full slate on a federal holiday? Or, that the Braves have somehow been off two Memorial Days in a row?

Amongst a roster of underperforming hitters, Tyler O’Neill‘s poor season has managed to stand out. Brought in prior to the 2025 campaign to be a veteran power threat, the now-30-year-old has spent most of his Orioles stint either on the IL or scuffling at the plate. For an Orioles team that needs to do whatever it can to win games, it’s tough to justify a place in the lineup for the high-priced outfielder.

As of this writing, O’Neill is in the midst of an 0-for-16 stretch that has brought his season batting line down to .146/.262/.225 with two home runs, seven RBI, 12 walks, and 25 strikeouts. His 47 wRC+ is the worst on the team, and is down near the bottom of the entire league.

The first month of the season wasn’t great for O’Neill. He had a .640 OPS and went on the IL for a bit. But that was world’s better than the .360 OPS he has so far in May.

And forget about him being a viable option against left-handed pitching. That has been a disaster as well with O’Neill hitting .051./.140/.051 against southpaws this season. But he has been decent against righties (.220/.350/.710), so maybe there is a path for him as a reverse splits option? The Orioles don’t seem to think so. They pinch hit him for Colton Cowser on Sunday evening to face a lefty out of Detroit’s bullpen. O’Neill struck out.

Now, in analyzing O’Neill this year you have to consider his health. He went on the IL in mid-April with a concussion, suffered after fainting while “extremely dehydrated” on an off day. Prior to the concussion, O’Neill owned a respectable, albeit underwhelming, line of .241/.353/.345 (.698 OPS). Since being activated on April 25, he is hitting .100/.217/.167. It may not be as simple as saying that the concussion is why O’Neill has performed so poorly, but it probably hasn’t helped.

We do know that the effects of a concussion can linger. Heston Kjerstad suffered a concussion in July of 2024. It took months for him to even get back on the field, and it seemed like he was still dealing with the effects for much of 2025, though the Orioles were not transparent about the specifics of Kjerstad’s health. Back in 2023, a bout with vertigo cost Ryan Mountcastle a month of games, and he needed more than two weeks of minor league rehab in order to get back to game shape. Vertigo and concussions are not the same diagnosis, but they can be related.

There has not been reporting that indicates O’Neill is still battling his concussion in any way. But we do know it is his second concussion as a big leaguer, the other coming back in 2023. Usually your brain needs longer to recovery from subsequent injuries. And while he did miss more than two weeks of action, he did not go down to the minors for any rehab games. It would be normal and understandable if he was still trying to get himself right.

Now, we must also admit that O’Neill’s first season in Baltimore was disappointing too. He hit .199/.292/.392 a season ago and played in just 54 games due to multiple IL stints. Those injuries were neck inflammation, left shoulder impingement, and right wrist inflammation.

And it’s not as if O’Neill has been the most dependable player in his career. He’s been worth -0.6 bWAR this season, was worth -0.6 bWAR last year, and accumulated just 0.3 bWAR in 2023. He was solid for Boston in 2024, producing 2.9 bWAR, which earned him his current contract with the Orioles. Right now, that looks like an anomaly that the Orioles bought high on, and it is entirely possible that he just isn’t very good anymore.

That contract pays O’Neill $16.5 million per year for three years. It runs through the end of 2027. According to Spotrac, he is the third-highest paid player on the Orioles roster after Pete Alonso ($31 million) and Chris Bassitt ($18.5 million).

The combination of a big salary and poor results has fans clamoring for O’Neill to be released. That ire is understandable, but unless O’Neill is also a locker room liability (it doesn’t seem that he is), it probably isn’t happening in-season.

The Orioles other outfield options aren’t great. Dylan Beavers has no timeframe for his return from a right oblique strain he suffered a couple of weeks ago. Those tend to linger. Tommy Pham, now 38 years old, was signed to a minor league deal last week. That feels like an indictment of their confidence in the likes of Ryan Noda, Johnathan Rodriguez, or Jud Fabian to come up an fill the need. Reed Trimble is back on the IL for the second time this season and has played just three games at Triple-A in 2026. Kjerstad is rehabbing in Norfolk, but has just a .630 OPS down there, though he feels like the most logical replacement.

Right now, the Orioles must just feel like O’Neill’s potential to rebound and be at least close to league average is better that what most other internal options can provide. That isn’t a crazy perspective to take, even if you may disagree with the conclusion. Also, releasing O’Neill is final. If you let him go, he won’t be coming back. Whereas other members of the big league squad with minor league options could be yo-yo’ed back and forth without anything being lost.

O’Neill’s long-term standing with the organization does feel shaky though. Two consecutive, injury-riddled, poor seasons feels like the type of player to get the boot next offseason. Waiting until the winter to pull the trigger on such a move is just easier. It would give the team time to sort out their plans on the grass, and they would also only be swallowing one season of dead salary rather than a year and a half. That sounds trivial, but teams often care about the optics and financials of these moves.

So, what can be done in the meantime? The Orioles need to put their best foot forward. This version of O’Neill does not provide that, at least not on a regular basis. But releasing him right now seems unlikely. If it’s possible, a return to the IL followed by a week or two in Norfolk could be best for everyone. It would relieve some pressure on O’Neill and give the Orioles room to bring up someone else that might have a chance to be a net positive in the short term.

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland writes that with Josh Jung the latest infirmed, the Texas Rangers were forced to get creative with their lineup in Sunday’s finale. That creative lineup struck out 16 times and the Rangers were nearly perfecto’d as they were swept by the worst team in baseball.

MLB dot com’s Jack Janes writes that the Rangers got a good outing from MacKenzie Gore only to score the fewest runs in the series.

McFarland writes that a discouraging 3-6 road trip against the three worst teams in baseball ended in appropriately depressing fashion with a walk-off error.

MLB dot com’s Courtney Hollmon notes that things could have been worse as Jung’s shoulder issue doesn’t appear to be serious.

McFarland writes that in Texas’ never-ending quest to get their actual full lineup back, Wyatt Langford has shown improvement in his rehab while Corey Seager has hit a snag.

And, the folks at ESPN check in on the standings filled with bad teams and disappointments as we’ve reached the season’s one-third mark on Memorial Day.

Have a nice day!

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NL Central rivals collide this afternoon as the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers begin a three-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05 p.m. ET. 

With Jacob Misiorowski on the hill, my Cardinals vs. Brewers predictions are targeting Milwaukee to take the series opener. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, May 25. 

Who will win Cardinals vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-210)

The Milwaukee Brewers send their ace to the hill this afternoon in Jacob Misiorowski, who sports an impressive 1.89 ERA and a 4-2 record. He has been absolutely lights out this month, throwing four straight scoreless outings. 

Misiorowski's ERA is 2.04 at home, and he's historically had success against the St. Louis Cardinals, though the sample size is small. Across 33 at-bats, they're hitting just .212 off the right-hander.

On the other side, the Brew Crew will face left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who has given up four earned runs in back-to-back starts. 

Overall, he has a 4.70 ERA, and Liberatore's ERA is above four on the road. Milwaukee has a 16-11 record at American Family Field, and it's won three of its last four meetings with St. Louis at home. 

COVERS INTEL: Misiorowski has posted a career-best 2.12 FIP this season through 10 appearances. 

Cardinals vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

While Liberatore has had his struggles lately, there have been a few solid starts for him over the last month as well.

Before surrendering four earned on the road to the Athletics, he only allowed two earned in each of his previous two starts away from St. Louis, and the Brewers aren't exactly coming in hot, scoring four runs against the Dodgers across Saturday and Sunday. 

Misiorowski's case here is clear. He rarely gives up runs, and the Cardinals offense is inconsistent. They're losers of three of four, and St. Louis scored only eight runs combined in those defeats. 

Two of the last four meetings have also cashed the Over.

Cardinals vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals +122 | Brewers -163
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-120) | Brewers -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-104)

Cardinals vs Brewers trend

Six of Milwaukee's last 10 games have cashed the Under in total runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers.

How to watch Cardinals vs Brewers and game info

Cardinals vs Brewers latest injuries

Cardinals vs Brewers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Angels 2, Rangers 1

• I will take the blame for this one.
• You see, on the Yahoo sports app on my phone on Sunday there was a blurb about the Rangers/Angels game that said “Don’t expect a lot of scoring in this duel between two lefty aces.”
• I screenshotted it and posted it, saying that the two “lefty aces” were MacKenzie Gore and Reid Detmers. Much hilarity, right?
• And so what happens? Reid Detmers goes out and carves up the Rangers. After a 1-2-3 first, he allows a leadoff homer in the second to Jake Burger, then retires the next 21 batters he faces in a row.
• Detmers strikes out 14 batters while retiring 24 of 25 batters faced. It is one of teh most dominante performances of the season.
• And MacKenzie Gore, meanwhile, also allows just one hit and one run. He does it in six innings, though, and only strikes out seven while walking two batters.
• See what happens? I make jokes, and the universe decides to mock me.
• Now, you may think that I’m not so important that the universe would go out of its way to make this happen just to mock me. And that is a reasonable point.
• However, what if I am that important? Or what if my consciousness is breaking off into the particularly strand of universes that involves being mocked? Have you thought of that?
• The ninth inning also seemed designed to mock Rangers fans in general, should we wish to take a particularly solipsistic view of the universe.
• Two outs in the ninth, and the Rangers get their second baserunner of the game. They follow it up with their third and fourth baserunners of the game, bringing up Jake Burger, with the bases loaded, the person responsible for their one run of the game. Jake Burger, in position to give the Rangers the lead.
• And he strikes out.
• Then the bottom of the ninth, Gavin Collyer…
• I will say, as an aside, the decision to use Gavin Collyer in that situation was surprising to me. Collyer was just called up, and had pitched the day before for Round Rock.
• Collyer strikes out a batter, gives up a single, hits a batter…
• Collyer, I will note, has now hit four batters on the season. That’s a lot for someone who has faced just 57 major league batters. Nathan Eovaldi has hit 5 batters this year, and no one else on the team has hit more than two.
• Collyer does his job and gets a weak roller right to Justin Foscue. Foscue, who had spoken the day before about feeling bad for getting picked off yet again on Saturday and letting the team down, has an easy 4-3 double play ahead of him.
• He steps on second, bobbles the transition of the ball from his glove to his throwing hand, then rushing the throw, putting it into the dirt. Jake Burger doesn’t scoop it. Pinch runner Donovan Walton scores from second. The Angels walk it off.
• How does one, as a fan, even react to a loss like that?
• I don’t know the answer to that.
• MacKenzie Gore maxed out at 96.7 mph with his fastball, averaging 95.6 mph. Jakob Junis hit 93.1 mph with his sinker. Gavin Collyer’s fastball touched 97.2 mph.
• Jake Burger had a 101.9 mph fly out and a 101.1 mph home run. Justin Foscue had a 101.4 mph fly out. Sam Haggerty had a 100.0 mph ground out.
• Hopefully things will go better at home.

What do you even want me to say at this point, respectfully?

Before I get on my soap box and complain for however-many words, let me just quickly say that I appreciate the fact that you’re here. It’s a holiday Monday, you could’ve done anything else with your long weekend, and yet you decided to read the upset ramblings of a man who is really pissed off with his shitty baseball team. For that, I thank you. Isn’t that the American Dream, what I’m living out right now?

Tongue-in-cheek comments aside: I’m exhausted, folks. Not with the writing—I’ll be here on OTM until the bitter end—but with the watching. Forgive me for the stream of consciousness this week, but I don’t know what else to do.

The 2026 Boston Red Sox are a chore to watch. I don’t really remember the last time I’ve ever felt that way in my life. I’m not sure I’ve ever felt that way, actually, now that I think about it. I was in high school in 2012; I still had that youthful spunk where I wanted to watch my team. I was still probably riding enough of a high after 2013 to ensure that the following two season weren’t a monotonous watch. Even the non-‘21-and-‘25 teams in the 2020’s weren’t this miserable to sit through at this point in the season, at least for me (your mileage may vary).

After a sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, the Sox are dangerously close to being 10 games under .500, as if avoiding that label would be any fucking consolation prize for a team that was getting AL pennant shouts two months ago (and I’m guilty of that too! I had Seattle winning the pennant over us! Not that the Seattle prediction is going well, but my goodness!). This team is a joke. They are, simply put, pathetic. I’m not sure how in depth I can go with that as my basis right now.

Perhaps this is just my own personal reckoning with the situation, but doesn’t this feel like the right time for it? The unofficial date to begin worrying about your team has always been Memorial Day. We’re there now, and I think the season’s just about over already. There’s no generational prospect coming up through the minors to help us. The coaching staff has already been cleaned out. The money is being allocated by FSG in some capacity, for all the ownership group’s faults, yet here we are. The roster construction is still a mess and it will continue to be a mess for the immediate future.

To quote a wise sheriff…

If there’s a way out of this mess, I can’t personally see it. I try to be as optimistic as possible, but I do not see a path to 270 electoral votes this year. I’d love to eat these words in a few months, but I don’t believe in this group. I’ve seen enough. I’ll keep watching because I’m a sicko. I’ll keep writing about this team because I love writing and I love the Red Sox and I love this lil’ gig I’ve been blessed with getting. But I sure as hell do not love this iteration of the team, man. We’ll have plenty of time to talk about what needs to happen to right the ship (I don’t want to be rash, but I’m becoming more and more of a #BreslowOut guy as the days go on, slowly but surely), but as for right now: I think the prospects we had in late March about this team contending in October are just about done and dusted.

If you’re a consistent reader, you know that I like to dive into the developments that have happened over the course of the week in the MMBB, whether they’re good or bad. That practice will continue for the rest of the season. I’ll try to be as optimistic as possible moving forward in 2026, but just know that I’m probably harboring a sense of dread alongside any positive words I have until I’m given a reason by the team to feel otherwise. Why waste my time by thinking things could be getting better this season when I’m talking about any consistent trends that Jarren Duran might’ve had at the plate this week? The last time I did that, he sucked for another week-and-change. I did the same with Marcelo Mayer before then, and it’s been even worse for him. I could talk until I’m blue in the face about the positive trends being made by a Payton Tolle or a Sonny Gray or a, dare I say, Brayan Bello when he’s being preceded by an opener.

Doesn’t matter, dude. We suck shit.

All of those positive trends could be true in a vacuum, but I don’t think they’re gonna ultimately matter this year—short of something extraordinary happening. The pitching’s been pretty solid overall, the defense has been stellar, and I’ve tried finding the positives in an underwhelming lineup. All of that together has gotten us eight games below an even .500. We’re a laughing stock in the league; a banter club, if you follow the Premier League. We’ve got Buster Olney saying we’ve got to abort the Caleb Durbin experiment. The question of “What the fuck are we doing in the front office” is a legitimate one at this stage. To get even more existential, another great question is “What is the plan moving forward?”

We’ve got nothing going for us on a consistent basis. Even after a sweep in Kansas City, the team goes and shits their pants yet again at home. The only time I’ve ever given true credence to the idea of momentum not being a thing has been with watching this collection of guys representing the Red Sox, because I haven’t seen an ounce of it this year. What is there to look forward to for the last four months of the year?

I guess I’ve gotta answer that question for myself. Maybe you do as well.

Again: I’ll be here for y’all. I’ll talk about positive and negative trends as I see ‘em, because I like talking ball. I love this team, I love this sport, and I love talking about both the team as well as the sport.

But I suppose this is my official declaration that I’m not gonna be fooled by this specific group going forward. I’ve been patient enough thus far; the patience is gone. I’m not holding any reservations for them for the rest of the year, because they don’t deserve those reservations. We’ve crossed the Rubicon, if the Rubicon was filled with poo. Maybe we’re drowning in that Rubicon instead, come to think of it. Either way: I don’t see a way where we could be going back.

I’ll still watch, I’ll still write, I’ll still support, but I don’t believe in this group as things currently stand. I’d love to be proven wrong, but I don’t think I’m alone in this sentiment. What have they done to prove otherwise? I’ve tried putting a spotlight on positive things (and I’m not trying to sound like the end-all-be-all of Sox analysis here, folks; this is just my personal ramblings) and they haven’t amounted to much of anything. I don’t care how bad the American League is. We’re a prime example of that suckiness. How many times can the boy cry wolf? How many times can the Sox blogger cry positive regression?

I dunno, folks. I’m just exhausted with this team already. I think it’ll be a………………………………………..

Song of the Week: “Cruel Summer” by Taylor Swift

I swear I didn’t go into this aiming for it to be a 1,200+ word set-up to a stupid joke, but if the shoe fits….

Same time and same place next week, folks. Go Sox, I guess. Who gives a fuck anymore?