The novelty of Rhys Hoskins returning to Citizens Bank Park has worn off. He visited his old home six times with the Milwaukee Brewers the last two seasons.
But Hoskins, who played six seasons with the Phillies – in good times and bad – always draws a crowd when he returns to town.
This time, it’s with the Cleveland Guardians for a weekend series.
“It’s always special,” he said in front of a gaggle of reporters before Friday night’s game. “I have a lot of memories in this ballpark and this city. It’s always fun to relive those a little bit.”
Hoskins, 33, started at first base for Cleveland. He entered the game hitting just .185 with four homers and 18 RBIs in 40 games.
Maybe a return to the park in which he clubbed 80 of his 190 career regular-season homers – and one very memorable postseason homer in the 2022 NLDS against Atlanta — would put a little charge in his bat. With Milwaukee, he hit three homers in six games in Philadelphia the last two seasons.
“It’s a great place to hit,” he said.
During his time in Philadelphia, Hoskins endured a rebuild that culminated with a NL Championship and a trip to the World Series in 2022. He received a nice ovation before Friday night’s game.
“The Northeast is a different beast, especially when it comes to their sports — in the best way,” he said. “It can be hard on us players. But we’d much rather have it be hard than have an indifferent fan base. It’s a beast here. That’s the reality, especially how good this team has played the last few years. It’s always a challenge to come here, but it’s always fun.”
Rob Thomson was a first-year manager when the Phillies went to the World Series in 2022. He was fired in April after this year’s club got off to a 9-19 start. Hoskins said he recently texted Thomson.
“He’s a classy man and I’m super grateful to him for the memories,” Hoskins said.
Hoskins hit .223 with 38 homers, 125 RBIs and a .732 OPS in 221 games with the Brewers in 2024 and 2025. He missed significant time last season with a thumb injury and lingered on the free-agent market over the winter. He eventually signed a one-year deal with Cleveland worth $1.5 million.
Asked if he believed there was a chance of coming back to the Phillies over the winter, Hoskins was blunt: “No,” he said. The Phillies have a first baseman in Bryce Harper and a designated hitter in Kyle Schwarber.
Down the road, Hoskins wouldn’t mind coming back to the team that drafted and developed him if the chance ever arises.
“I’m human,” he said. “I know the desires and the thoughts I had when I was a player here, a young player here, about playing with one team my whole career. Getting a chance to end a career here would be pretty special, too. I’ll never close that door. It’ll shake out the way it’s supposed to.”
Tonight sees the Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates for the start of an interleague series.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is a plus matchup for Jays ace Kevin Gausman, and I expect him to deliver an efficient outing tonight.
Find out more in our Blue Jays vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 22.
Pirates vs Blue Jays predictions
Pirates vs Blue Jays best bet: Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs (-135)
Kevin Gausman is set for another strong performance when he faces the Pittsburgh Pirates. When the Toronto Blue Jays' right-hander is at his best, he’s painting the corners with the fastball and then baffling batters with his nasty splitter.
That’s where the Jays’ ace has the advantage in this matchup, as Pittsburgh has struggled to hit the split-finger fastball this season, sporting a .188 xBA against the pitch, the seventh-worst mark in baseball.
Gausman has gone Under his posted number of 2.5 earned runs in four of his last six starts this season, and he’s pitched well against Pittsburgh in the past, going 4-1 to the Under on this prop in his last five outings against the Pirates.
I’ll continue to ride the Gausman train and take him to eclipse 17.5 recorded outs. The Jays’ bullpen was taxed heavily yesterday, and they’ll need innings from their ace. Additionally, Gausman has recorded 18+ outs in four of his last six starts.
Meanwhile, Bubba Chandler has struggled to find the zone this season, issuing 17 walks in his last five starts, going Over this posted total in four of those games.
Pirates vs Blue Jays SGP
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs
Kevin Gausman Over 17.5 outs
Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 walks
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Pirates vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+320)
Chandler throws a hard four-seamer, ranking in the 96th percentile in velocity.
Kazuma Okamoto seems to match up well with this pitching profile. He owns a .602 xSLG against the four-seam fastball with a 67% hard-hit rate, barreling the ball in 14% of at-bats against the offering. The Jays’ third baseman also has a team-leading five home runs against the four-seamer.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 22-27, -1.55 units
SGPs: 9-40, -3.4 units
HR picks: 8-41, +2.65 units
Pirates vs Blue Jays odds
Moneyline: Pittsburgh +140 | Toronto -160
Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-150) | Toronto -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Pirates vs Blue Jays trend
Toronto has hit the run line in 15 of its last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Pirates vs Blue Jays and game info
Location
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date
Friday, May 22, 2026
First pitch
7:07 p.m. ET
TV
SportsNet Pittsburgh, Sportsnet One
Pirates starting pitcher
Bubba Chandler (1-5, 5.14 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.45 ERA)
Pirates vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Pirates vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
KANSAS CITY, MO - MAY 10: Kansas City Royals catcher Elias Diaz (43) walks to the dugout after warming up before a MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals on May 10, 2026, at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Royals announced they have designated catcher Elías Díaz for assignment and recalled infielder Tyler Tolbert from Triple-A. Díaz appeared in 10 games and hit .227/.261/.591 with two home runs in 23 plate appearances.
The Royals added him as a third catcher when Salvador Perez was experiencing hip problems that prevented him from catching, but the team appears to be satisfied with his ability to stay behind the plate. The team could try to bring Díaz back to Omaha if he clears waivers. The Royals originally signed Díaz to a minor league deal back in February. The 12-year MLB vet has appeared in 840 career MLB games and was an All-Star in 2023 with Colorado.
Tolbert returns after an earlier stint in which he appeared in seven games, and went 1-for-5 with a stolen base and a caught stealing. The 28-year-old infielder/outfielder has been used mostly as a pinch runner in late game situations. He was hitting .260/.365/.288 with eight steals in eight tries in 20 games for Omaha.
Adric at Daikin Park. May 6, 2026. | Michael Elizondo / True Blue LA
The travels of the de facto Traveling Correspondent have begun, and we are now sorting through the highlights and lowlights of the experiences while providing in-person coverage for True Blue LA during the 2026 season.
As the Dodgers have mucked about in the mud with their actual rivals and dispatched their de facto rivals, on the eve of the rematch between last year’s laugher of a National League Championship Series, before Adric and I return to the road, let us reflect on what invariably came before…
The first road trip of 2026 was inevitably, ultimately, always going to be a spectacular letdown. To be fair, when the last act was the two most hallowed words in sport, followed by arguably the greatest game ever played, virtually nothing but perfection could possibly follow up as the next act.
So once I psyched myself out by lowering my expectations, I told myself that I was going to enjoy this outing no matter what. Acknowledging that fact was a lot easier said than done, which gives me some insight into what the Dodgers themselves must be thinking and feeling these days. Yes, they ride at the pinnacle of the sport, but one would be remiss not to notice that victory has at times defeated them.
After all, it’s hard to gin oneself up to go to St. Louis and Houston in early May, but I survived. The addition of going to St. Louis was the final addition to my 2026 itinerary, as it was cheaper and less hassle to get to Houston from St. Louis than frommy home base in San Francisco.
In retrospect, considering my slightly bum leg that I have been nursing for about a month, I probably should have just paid the extra amount and just done the three-game set in Houston. That said, I did get some nice footage of budget seating at Busch Stadium while the Dodgers ground into eight double plays over two games.
Seeing Dodgers baseball in St. Louis is like being in sweaty pajamas around the house: folks might judge you a little, but it’s comfy, and sometimes that is enough. What I found amusing was both the near-constant applicability of my Japanese skills in both St. Louis and Houston and the sheer shock my conversational Japanese would elicit from the unsuspecting.
More often than once in St. Louis and Houston, I had to play de facto translator, which made me smile and call my mother afterward, which goes to show the ongoing Japanese language work is still paying dividends.
Unapologetic
The main draw of this trip was my first visit to Houston, which I honestly had mixed feelings about beforehand for obvious reasons. I had a feeling this portion of the trip would be my hair shirt, and sadly, I was right. For those who do not know, a hair shirt is generally any self-imposed punishment used to show contrition.
I have gorged at the buffet of plenty. To complete the MLB circuit, I have to take my medicine.
I previously wrote that I was largely over 2017 before visiting Daikin Park. Saying that you’re over something is a much bigger challenge when you are having the thing you are allegedly over being thrust in your face at seemingly every opportunity over three generally forgettable days in Houston.
Imagine the sprawl and majesty of Tokyo, then remove anything interesting, and then remove the ease of transit, and what is left is a logistical nightmare without a vehicle. Apparently, there is a system of pedestrian tunnels in Houston for getting around downtown, which are currently entirely unhelpful for navigating the immediate area around Daikin Park.
While I did meet some lovely people in Houston, the main things that stood out were both the spectacular failures of Daikin Park as a baseball venue and the sheer unapologetic nature of the Houston faithful. What I did not anticipate was just the sheer audacity of the Astros’ cheating in 2017 being thrown in my face. I took a tour of the facility, which I knew would anger me. It did, but my ultimate victory came in not showing it.
During the three-game series, Manager Dave Roberts said that he had largely gotten over the scandal. He’s a better man than most.
While Padres fans and Blue Jays fans can be annoying (entitlement without many accomplishments to back it up), and Giants fans can be downright frustrating (especially when besting the Dodgers is the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal campaign), the majority of Astros fans I encountered seemed to take glee from their obstinacy.
Here’s the hard truth, people: there is no getting through to these people. Normally, these field reports do not turn into history lessons on dead horses, but when an opposing fanbase tries to spend three days gaslighting, my patience only goes so far.
Any poor soul that goes to Daikin Park has to steel themselves to this fact. The locals know the Astros cheated in 2017; they either do not care or attempt to deflect blame by arguing that every team was cheating back then, citing a Sports Illustrated article by Tom Verducci that came out in 2018.
Here’s how quickly things have changed, according to a Dodgers source. Three years ago, if you walked into the Dodgers’ video room behind their Dodger Stadium dugout you would likely have found Zack Greinke pouring over video of opposing hitters, looking for any edge he could find to match up his stuff against their weakness. This year, if you walked into the same room you would have found a small army of 20-something analysts in polo shirts and slacks pouring over video from the in-house cameras, like the security room at a Vegas casino. Most teams train their cameras on the catcher, the pitcher (from several angles), the third base coach and the dugout.
These cameras are not used for training purposes. They are used expressly for stealing signs and deciphering “tells” from pitchers.
“We’ve reached a point,” said one club executive, “where the attractiveness of the sport as an entertainment option has been lost in the quest to find every incremental edge. And video has changed things rapidly. I’m increasingly thinking something has to be done.”
Yes, it’s far cry from a surveillance system to learn more about what the pitcher will do, versus creating a real-time system, in part, to cement the legacy of playoff failure for Clayton Kershaw. During the trip, my mind kept going back to the relevant passage in his biography, The Last of His Kind: Clayton Kershaw and the Burden of Greatness by Andy McCullough (excerpts from pages 249-251):
The rumors prompted Rick Honeycutt to gather his pitchers before the series. Honeycutt encouraged the group to protect their grips, monitor the placement of their gloves, and change their signs frequently, as if there was a runner at second base at all times, especially when playing in Houston, where the Astros had not lost all postseason. The message resonated with some more than others. Not every player was as paranoid as Utley, who had helped decipher the Dodgers’ signs with Philadelphia in the previous decade. “I was like, ‘Why is this a fucking thing?’” Brandon McCarthy recalled. “I thought that was being weird and overly protective.” But McCarthy followed the instructions.
When he pitched in a Game 2 loss at Dodger Stadium, he used an elaborate sequence with no runners on base. George Springer still launched the game-winning home run off him. Darvish declined to take the same precautions for Game 3 at Minute Maid Park and could not finish the second inning. For Game 4, Wood decided to change signs every ten pitches. “We’d heard whispers of some of the shady stuff they’d been doing,” he later said. Out in the visitors’ bullpen, tucked beyond the fence in left-center field, Dodgers relievers peered toward the Astros bullpen and attempted to discern a pattern. Several pitchers tracked someone in an Astros uniform whom they believed was relaying signs: The Dodgers thought if the Astro stood up straight, he was signaling an incoming fastball. For an off-speed pitch, the Astro leaned on his elbows. “You could see some shady shit going on in their bullpen,” Stripling recalled…
Before Game 4 in Houston, Kershaw sat inside the video room, running through his scouting sheets to prepare for Game 5. Pratt vocalized his concern. “I think something weird’s going on,” he said. Pratt suggested Kershaw protect his signs more carefully, as Honeycutt had advised. Kershaw dismissed the idea. He was willing to switch his signs every two pitches with a runner at second base. But to alter his entire approach felt foolish. He thought it would clutter his mind and disrupt his timing. He did not want the distraction, not when the threat felt so remote…
…What doomed Kershaw was less hubris than failure of imagination. He understood that when a runner stood at second base there was extra risk of technologically aided thievery. But the concept of teams using illegal cameras to relay signs in real time felt impossible. “You just don’t fathom that that’s happening,” Honeycutt recalled.
(Emphasis added.)
For all of my mild teasing of the Toronto faithful, I understand both the pain of losing a close World Series and the pain of losing a not particularly competitive World Series (there was a moment, then Ryan Madson…). Then that pain occurred all over again when it turned out Houston was cheating, I felt guilt for every unkind thing I said about Clayton Kershaw and others, and that pain turned to resentment when the Commissioner declined to vacate the 2017 title:
“I’m more than prepared to tolerate and listen to the debate and criticism about whether or not the punishments that have been levied in this case were sufficient,” Manfred said. “The one thing that I do take an issue with is the notion that anyone in the Houston organization escaped without punishment. I think if you look at the faces of the Houston players as they went out there publicly addressing this issue, they have been hurt by this. They will live with questions about what went on in 2017 and 2018 for the rest of their lives. And frankly it’s rare that for any offense, to have a punishment that you have to live with for the rest of your life.”
I rehash this history because I was subjected to the “Lost Cause” version of these events while in Houston, from people trying to get a rise out of me. It was like wrestling with a pig in the muck; the thing to remember is that the pig enjoys it, so the best way out is not to play. And my outward stocism worked, even though I was privately fuming.
I could spend hundreds, if not thousands of words, on substandard food, facilities, and lighting, while railing on how underwhelming the experience of attending a Dodger game at Daikin Park was, and how spectacularly underwhelming Houston barbecue is (see below), but then, I wouldn’t have a Guide entry to write the next time the Dodgers visit.
If you, dear reader, wish to still be angry and/or gloat over the end of the current Astros’ window, have at it.
While the experience of going to Oracle Park, Petco Park, or Rogers Centre may not be for everyone, at least in the first two instances, you would be at an otherwise respectable ballpark. Daikin Park can claim none of those characteristics. One would not generally need to wrestle with a pig to know what a bad idea it is, but in order to complete the circuit of 30 MLB parks, sometimes you just have to wade through the muck.
Anyway, ballpark 28 is down. Next up, a social holiday in Milwaukee, where I will attempt to both fight ghosts and tread on ground that David Vassegh once dared to tread.
Entering the season, most prospect lists had 3-4 Phillies prospects listed amongst their top-100.
Baseball America had three: shortstop Aidan Miller (No. 14), starting pitcher Andrew Painter (No. 32) and outfielder Justin Crawford (No. 75).
Baseball Prospectus was a bit more bullish, listing five: Miller (13), Painter (51), starter Gage Wood (77), infielder Aroon Escobar (78) and Crawford (98).
But with 50 MLB games now under their belts, Painter and Crawford have graduated and are no longer considered prospects. Therefore, some of the updated lists are light on Phils prospects.
Perhaps it’s not terribly surprising news, given the departure of Painter and Crawford, but it’s still a bit depressing when you consider Miller has yet to come close to playing an actual baseball game this season.
There were encouraging reports this week that Miller’s back issue was slowly getting better. Don Mattingly said Miller is “beginning to do light baseball activity,” which everyone hopes is more than playing catch with the Iron Pigs’ ball boys. But it does not appear he is swinging a bat as of yet.
Miller’s back injury is a cause for concern, even as the Phils attempt to downplay it. Information about it has been scant so far this spring, and it’s obvious Miller could lose a significant amount of important development in AAA. At this point, there should be no expectation of him joining the big league club at all in ‘26.
With Miller out, Wood is scheduled to make his first start for Reading since his promotion tonight (Friday), and is the only prospect in the system deemed worthy of inclusion among the game’s best.
That’s not to say there aren’t some intriguing prospects in the system, particularly at AA, where Escobar, center fielder Dante Nori, reliever Alex McFarlane, shortstop Bryan Rincon and Carson DeMartini.
McFarlane: 16 games, 0.57 ERA, 15.2 IP, 21/7 K/BB ratio
At the moment, none of the four position players listed project as potential All Stars. McFarlane could be a bullpen piece as soon as this year, so there is some hope there. But a top 100 prospect he will not be.
One of the items Dave Dombrowski was supposed to address was the farm system and, with Painter and Crawford in the Majors, the hope is those two will be the first promotions to make a major impact on the big league club. So far, the results are mixed, but plenty of time remains.
But entering the season, the Phils’ farm system, even with Painter and Crawford included and Miller’s back injury largely unknown, MLB Pipeline ranked it No. 20. They wrote:
It’s a good thing when your top three prospects — all Top 100 guys — will have the chance to contribute to the big league roster this year. Two of them, Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford, should make the Opening Day roster. Just beyond the Top 100 prospects, there’s excitement brewing with 2025 first-rounder Gage Wood and 2026 international signee Francisco Renteria, who is already creating buzz in the organization.
Renteria is certainly an intriguing prospect the team has sunk a lot of money into ($4 million for a 17-year-old), but he’s only just begun playing in the Phils’ Dominican Summer League.
Clearly there’s a lot of work still to do to get the organization’s farm system to a point it’s among the game’s best. The first step would be for Aidan Miller’s back to start cooperating.
A delectable Friday slate is upon us, and I have a few plays that should satisfy those cravings, as we are diving into a loaded menu of props and a few spicy sprinkles across this piece.
Tonight, we will be eyeing Jack Flaherty, Kyle Schwarber, and Shea Langeliers in what could be a profitable evening at the diamond in our MLB player props.
A prop I have been monitoring over the last few weeks has become one of my favorite sweats. Sure, I am 1-1 so far taking the over on Jack Flaherty walks, and sure, he had none the last time I was on the prop.
However, the first time, he walked three guys in his first 39 pitches. The Detroit Tigers right-hander owns an 18.4% walk rate on the road this season, allowing 3.6 walks per road outing.
Meanwhile, on the other side, the Baltimore Orioles have six hitters with at least a 7.7% walk rate. Zoom in a little more, and four guys own a walk rate of 11.1% or higher. Overall, as a team, they sport a 10.3% walk rate, tied for 10th in baseball.
If trying to find the zone on the road is Flaherty's kryptonite, I want to continue taking the over on his walks, especially away from home. I'd pass on this prop if you have to pay juice. Look for a book offering plus money, as the risk outweighs laying any extra vig.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: AppleTV
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+100)
We will be going to the bank twice today, first to Citizens Bank Park, then to our personal banks to deposit our winnings (hopefully), as Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber finds himself in a great spot this evening against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams. The Phillies designated hitter owns the highest hitter rating in this matchup, per Batters-Box.
In 96 elite ratings at home, Schwarber has produced incredible trends, recording at least a hit 64.58% of the time and cashing this prop 56.25% of the time. The slugger has also surpassed 2+ HRR in eight of his last 10 elite ratings.
Left-handed hitters have given Williams hell this season, as he has allowed a ton of hard contact and plenty of home runs, nine through 10 starts. On top of that, against the last 60 lefties he has faced, the right-hander owns a 1.93 HR/9, while those hitters sport a .685 xSLG.
If you are able to find Schwarber's hit prop below -150 and you are in the juice-paying business, take it. However, only take his HRR prop if you can get it at plus money. His hit prices are surprisingly low this evening.
Also, do not be afraid to sprinkle on the big fella to leave the yard today either, as he homers 35.42% of the time at home when carrying an elite rating.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CleGuardians.TV, NBCSP
Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-115)
We are ending the evening with a BANG, a Shea Langeliers bang, by taking the over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI prop this evening against San Diego Padres right-hander Walker Buehler, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating on the day on Batters-Box.
The Padres starter also has poorly rated average hitter matchup numbers in wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage.
Over his last couple starts, Buehler has allowed right-handed hitters to make a ton of hard contact and elevate the baseball, posting just a 34.9% ground ball rate over the last 60 right-handed hitters faced.
The Athletics star catcher owns the third-highest elite rating in this matchup. In 16 elite ratings away from home, Langeliers has produced strong trends:
1+ Hit: 62.5%
1+ RBI: 56.25%
2+ HRR: 50%
Home Run: 31.25%
Langeliers also owns the third-highest arsenal coverage on the day among elite-rated hitters, crushing nearly 75% of Buehler's offerings. On top of that, he has been terrorizing right-handed pitching this season, owning a 16.19% barrel rate.
With how strong the percentage changes are for the Athletics slugger, I also sprinkled on his home run prop as well. If you cannot find a number hovering around -115 for his HRR, take his bases prop at plus money.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, Padres.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Needing a healthy arm following the injury to Clay Holmes, the Mets are calling up top pitching prospect Jonah Tong, the team announced Friday.
In a corresponding move, New York is designating veteran relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel for assignment.
Manager Carlos Mendoza had hinted at Tong being called up on Wednesday after he was scratched from his Triple-A start, saying the 22-year-old was "in play" to pitch against the Miami Marlins over the weekend.
Tong struggled in his brief major league stint at the end of the 2025 regular season, going 2-3 with a 7.71 ERA over five starts, but the team is still high on his future.
Kimbrel, 37, has struggled over 14 appearances with the Mets. The veteran is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and recently tossed 2.2 innings against the Nationals, but let up an eighth-inning HR in the loss. In addition to the results on the field, the move shouldn't come as too much of a surprise with A.J. Minter nearing a return to the majors.
Summer's here, and the time is right for doffing in the seats.
A cavalcade of young, sweaty youths have overtaken Major League Baseball stadiums from coast to coast, extending a trend that has its roots in the bleachers of college football stadium.
"Tarps Off," as the kids call it, first gained traction in October 2025, when a harmless bet resulted in an Oklahoma State fan removing his shirt and twirling it amid a section of lifeless fans at a football game, according to crowd behavior anthropologists.
Soon, the act spread to Wisconsin and UCLA and North Carolina and Virginia Tech, young men channeling a sentiment originally expressed in Petey Pablo's first single from his 2001 debut album:
North Carolina, raise up. Take your shirt off, twist it 'round your handSpin it like a helicopter
How 'Tarps Off' came to MLB
Naturally, "Tarps Off" went into hibernation during the winter, yet emerged in the most unlikely of places: Denver's Coors Field.
Barely two months after Punxsutawney Phil allegedly cursed us with a few more weeks of winter, fans of the sad-sack Colorado Rockies brought the tradition to the big leagues on April 8, with a singular fan in Section 329 going guns out as the club aimed to complete a sweep of the Houston Astros.
Soon, a group of young men huddled around the iconic purple row that marks one mile above sea level at the ballpark. The crowd swelled. The Rockies won.
And "Tarps Off" was a thing.
'Tarps Off' goes mainstream
The trend soon accelerated thanks in part to the superstitious culture surrounding baseball. When members of the Stephen F. Austin club baseball team populated a section in the 200 level of Busch Stadium at a May 15 game and the Cardinals rallied for a 5-4, 11-inning walk-off win over the Kansas City Royals, manager Oliver Marmol couldn't help but notice.
And correlate the shirtless bros with a team W.
"Whoever started that in right field, I'll do whatever I need to do to make sure they come every game," Marmol said after the game, in something of a preamble to the Tarps Off Constitution. "Because that was awesome. Not only them, but everybody that showed up today. That was a fun environment."
Marmol didn't stop there, inviting the pectoral preeners into the Cardinals clubhouse and offering to buy tickets to any fan wanting to "sit in the right field loge and bring the energy."
'Tarps Off': What's next?
That created a wave of "Tarps Off" movements. In Anaheim, where "Sell the team!" and "Arte sucks!" chants became de rigueur as owner Arte Moreno pilots the franchise to its 11th consecutive losing season, the chant gained extra spice when paired with the shirtless crowd.
Now, it's been seen in virtually every ballpark, with various between-innings dance cams honing in on men of all ages pumping their fists and waving their shirts and ramping up their Vitamin D intake. It is sure to be a summertime staple, particularly as temperatures reach triple digits and a day at the ballpark becomes not unlike a good schvitz in the sauna.
At some point – and perhaps that point has arrived – it will be viewed as a little too tired, too contrived, too 2025. At the same time, in an era when sports leagues and franchises are shaking down municipalities for new stadiums that expand luxury areas while squeezing out the cheap seats and creating scarcity that drives up ticket prices, "Tarps Off" truly belongs to the people.
The lords of the loge. The vamps of the view section. Even if the practice, rooted in spontaneity, is now remarkably mainstream.
Corbin Carroll delivered the game-winning RBI in the ninth inning for Arizona to beat Colorado, 2-1, in Thursday's series opener. Friday's matchup is the second of a four game series.
The Diamondbacks have extended its winning streak to five consecutive games. In the last week (six games), Arizona is hitting an MLB-best .300 with the second-most hits (60). The Diamondbacks managed four this yesterday and eight walks to eight strikeouts as an offense.
Colorado is in a rough patch with three straight losses and four of the past five. The Rockies pitching staff has a 5.03 ERA (23rd) over the last week and has the second-highest amount of walks (29) in that span (six games). Colorado has been outscored 17-5 in the last three games and 33-22 in the previous six.
Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Rockies at Diamondbacks
Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
Time: 9:40 PM EST
Site: Chase Field
City: Phoenix, AZ
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
The Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll is hitting .282 with 46 hits and 90 total bases over 163 at-bats
The Diamondbacks’ James McCann is hitting .203 with 12 hits and 17 strikeouts over 59 at-bats
The Rockies’ Troy Johnston is hitting .324 with 48 hits and 67 total bases over 148 at-bats
The Rockies’ Ezequiel Tovar is hitting .206 with 34 hits and 48 strikeouts over 165 at-bats
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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Rockies at Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are 30-19 ATS this season, ranking third-best
The Rockies are 27-24 ATS this season
The Diamondbacks are 25-22-2 to the Over
The Rockies are 27-23-1 to the Under
The Diamondbacks are 15-8 ATS at home, ranking second-best
The Rockies are 14-12 ATS on the road and 9-17 on the ML
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Rockies and the Diamondbacks
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Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday's game between the Rockies and the Diamondbacks:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Diamondbacks on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Diamondbacks at -1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 9.0
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Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies wait to play as it rains on the at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Aug. 13, 2025. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The St. Louis Cardinals weekend series versus the Cincinnati Reds will have to wait until Saturday as the team just announced that Friday night’s game has been postponed due to weather. Saturday will now see a double-header (weather permitting, of course) with the first game being at 12:10pm central time and the night game scheduled to start at 6:10pm central time. Both games viewable on Cardinals.tv.
ANAHEIM, CA - MAY 16: José Soriano #59 of the Los Angeles Angels pitches during the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on Saturday, May 16, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Tom Wilson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
It is clear to see what the Washington Nationals need in the present and the future. The Nats need pitching, and badly. This Nationals offense has shocked the baseball world by leading the entire sport in runs scored through 51 games. However, they have also allowed the most runs in baseball, which is why they are under .500 despite their elite offense.
The Nats starting rotation has not gotten the job done this season. Cade Cavalli has been solid, and Foster Griffin was fantastic before his last couple starts. However, Griffin is a free agent after the season, and there is not much behind those guys. There also are not many surefire solutions to the rotation on the farm. Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora are extremely talented, but both have missed the whole season. The next best pitching prospect is Miguel Sime Jr., who is just 19 and is years away.
At some point, the Nats are probably going to have to make a big move for pitching. Why not do it sooner rather than later? I came up with three pitchers that the Nats could go after that all have multiple years of control after this one. They are three different profiles as well. Jose Soriano is the potential ace of the future that would require a blockbuster package. Reid Detmers is the upside play who has untapped potential. Finally, Carmen Mlodzinski would be a rotation stabilizer who can be very reliable.
The first pitcher I want to talk about is the big fish, Jose Soriano. If Paul Toboni were to bring him in, it would be like when Mike Rizzo traded for Gio Gonzalez. Soriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League for an awful Angels team. With two years of control after this one, Soriano would be a prime trade candidate.
If the Nats wanted to hold onto CJ Abrams and maximize his timeline, Soriano would be a great player to trade for. The right hander is on the same free agent timeline as Abrams. Soriano has a 2.44 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 66.1 innings, averaging over 6 innings per start. He throws an upper 90’s fastball and gets a ton of ground balls while also getting strikeouts. Soriano has high octane stuff that might be even better than Cade Cavalli’s.
Soriano is also just 27 years old, so he would be a great fit with this group. He and Cavalli would be a high quality one-two punch at the top of the rotation. It would not be Scherzer and Strasburg levels of elite, but it would be very good. Along with his fastballs, Soriano has two swing and miss secondaries, with his curveball and his splitter. Both get whiff rates at a 45% clip.
I am going to be honest, this is not very realistic and it would take a big prospect package. A package of Ronny Cruz, Luke Dickerson, Landon Harmon and Ethan Petry could be what it takes to get Soriano out of Anaheim. Paul Toboni may not have the stomach to give up that kind of haul this early into his process. However, if he really believed that this group is ready to make a run in 2027 and 2028, this would be an option worth considering.
Another Angels starter worth monitoring is Reid Detmers. After a successful season in the bullpen, Detmers moved back in the rotation this year. On the surface, it seems like the move has not gone that well. Detmers has an ERA over 5 on the season.
However, the under the hood metrics are fantastic. Detmers has a 3.08 FIP and 3.24 xERA. It is worth pointing out that Detmers has historically underperformed his underlying metrics, but it is clear he is getting unlucky right now. The lefty is striking out over 25% of hitters while walking under 8% of batters.
The Angels are not known as a savvy organization, so maybe the poor surface level stats have convinced them Detmers is not the answer. If so, the Nats should jump all over this opportunity. Detmers could provide similar results to Soriano without costing as much. A package of Luke Dickerson and Ethan Petry could potentially be enough to get him out of Anaheim.
I really like Detmers’ stuff. His bread and butter is his fastball/slider combination. The heater has a ton of ride at the top of the zone and the slider is his put away pitch. Detmers also throws a gorgeous 12/6 curveball. His best curveballs look like Kershaw’s. He also mixes in a changeup. It is a well rounded mix that I think the Nats could get the best out of. With two years of control after this one, Detmers would be a fun arm for the Nats to grab.
The last arm I want to talk about is a little more boring. Carmen Mlodzinski does not have the flashy stuff of Soriano or Detmers. However, he has been a quality piece of the Pirates pitching staff for a little while now. He has a 3.40 career ERA in 235.2 career innings. With how many pitchers the Pirates have though, Mlodzinski may not have a permanent home in the Pirates rotation though.
The metrics have been split on him this season. He has a 3.96 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, a 4.66 xERA and a 3.89 xFIP. That is a lot of variance, but I think the truth is he is a high-3’s arm. The Nats desperately need reliable arms like that, especially ones with three years of control after this one.
Mlodzinksi’s best pitch is his splitter, which is his most used pitch. He throws it 27.8% of the time, and batters are only hitting .206 against it this season. The righty throws a sinker and a 4-seamer to have multiple fastball looks. He also throws a curveball, a sweeper and a slider, but none of his breaking balls are standout pitches.
I think the 27 year old Mlodzinski would be a good piece in the middle of a rotation. What the Pirates would want in return could be interesting. They want to win now with Paul Skenes, so they would ask for someone more big league ready. If Toboni wants to give up on one of Dylan Crews or Brady House, this could be the type of deal he may put them in. The Pirates need more offense and the Nats need more pitching, so this type of swap would make sense.
This is more of a thought exercise than anything, but it would be fun if the Nats did some sort of soft buy either at the deadline or in the offseason. It really seems like they are ahead of schedule. However, they still have glaring needs. I think it would be smart if the Nats used their deep farm system and pool of young players to address some of these needs. It will probably not happen, but I wonder if Paul Toboni is thinking along these same lines.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - APRIL 27: T.C. Bear of the Minnesota Twins waves a flag prior to the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on Sunday, April 27, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by James Vigil/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The first matchup of the Red Sox and Twins, in Minnesota, was memorable for two things: Garrett Crochet getting hit so hard he’d eventually land on the IL, and the big breakout (of 2026) for Connelly Early. As they flew home to host the Tigers, the Red Sox stood at a 7-11 record, the opposite of the Twins at 11-7. Boston would then go 15-20 while Minnesota would post a 12-20 record. It’s hard to say the Sox are the “hot” team but they are 12-10 since Chad Tracy replaced Alex Cora, which looks better. How much difference any of the coaching changes actually made is unclear. Perhaps unknowable. Was Jarren Duran really a .500 OPS guy? Probably not! Could Alex Cora “fix” him? Well if he could it was going to take a few weeks because we’re still barely into the upswing, should it continue.
Minnesota is helped by the strong start, a rejuvenated Byron Buxton, and being in the AL Central. As of Thursday May 21st the Twins were just 6.0 games out of first and 1.5 games out of a Wild Card. The Red Sox sit 11 back of the first place Rays, though are just 2.0 away from a Wild Card spot. Even the Chicago White Sox (25-24) and Texas Ranger (24-25) – the teams with the 2nd and 3rd Wild Cards – aren’t running away with it. Boston remains a hot week away from changing the narrative of 2026.
Rookie Connor Prielipp is the first starter for the Twins this series. Only 5 starts into his major league career, the 25-year-old southpaw was originally drafted by Boston in the 37th round of the 2019 draft. He would decide to go to college and the Twins would take him in the 2nd round in 2022. He’s allowed 1 or 2 earned runs in each of his starts, although did allow an addition 3 unearned runs against Cleveland for a total of 4 on the day. He’s battled injuries in college and the minors but works off a four-pitch mix lead by a min-90s fastball, a curveball, slider, and changeup. He’ll face Payton Tolle. What more is there to say? Tolle is coming off 8.0 masterful innings against the Braves. He’s five starts into his 2026 call-up and has seemed dominant at times. Simply “very good” at others.
Saturday is a mixed bag of unknowns. This is likely a Brayan Bello start for Boston. TBD…Total Bello Destruction? Unless they use an opener. I don’t know what that is. Typical Bello Dazzlement? Bello’s ERA sits 7.16 against a FIP of 6.06.
The afternoon game on Sunday is the old vets, granted Bailey Ober is six years younger than Sonny Gray but he’s the veteran of this Twins staff. He’s having a good, healthy 2026. Just skip a start ago he tossed an 89 pitch shutout of the Miami Marlins. He’s not going to blow hitters away (17.2% strikeout rate) but also isn’t handing out free passes (7.3% BB rate). Hitters are slashing just .208/.273/.368 agsint him and hitting the ball with an average exit velocity of just 86.5 miles per hour. The Nationals tagged him for 6 ru5 runs in May and Boston got 4 facing him in April during the series at Target Field, but those are the blemishes. Sonny Gray will need to be on his game. With back-to-back 6.0 inning, 1-run starts he aims to do just that. In his two most recent starts since coming off the IL, Gray has looked more like his old self while striking out 6 and 9, respectively. Grey had trouble against the Twins in April in a 4.0 inning, 5-run affair but both he and the Twins were in different places back then.
Byron Buxton has 15 home runs and 4 steals this season. He’s stayed hot since Boston last saw him.
On the plus side for Boston, Ryan Jeffers is the only Twin to even have 7 homers and he just hit the IL.
The talented but often injured and now slumping Royce Lewis was optioned to Triple A.
Kody Clemens has 4 homers and is hitting .240/.333/.421. With Friday also being a bobblehead of his dad maybe Rocket will be in town for both occasions? He’s come to watch Kody at Fenway before after all.
Josh Bell stole his first base since 2018 and has 1 on the year. His career high is 2 so, watch out.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday, May 15: Connor Prielipp (2.88 ERA / 4.19 FIP) vs. Payton Tolle (2.05 ERA / 3.21 FIP)
Saturday, May 16: TBD (— ERA / — FIP) vs. TBD (— ERA / — FIP)
Sunday, May 17: Bailey Ober (3.63 ERA / 4.30 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.93 ERA / 3.73 FIP)
MESA, ARIZONA - MARCH 03: Pedro Ramirez #75 of the Chicago Cubs bats during the second inning of a World Baseball Classic exhibition game against Team Italy at Sloan Park on March 03, 2026 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cubs today announced that one of their top prospects, 2B/3B Pedro Ramírez, has been promoted to Chicago to make his major-league debut. In a corresponding move, infielder Matt Shaw has been placed in the injured list with lower back tightness.
The Cubs signed Ramírez in January of 2021 out of Venezuela for a $75,00 bonus. He signed at the same time and place as fellow Venezuelan Moisés Ballesteros. Since then, Ramírez has been working his way up the minor leagues with a steady, contact-oriented bat, plus speed and an good glove at second and third base. This year, in Triple-A Iowa, he’s started to hit for power with a career-high nine home runs already. In 43 games in Iowa, Ramírez hit .312/.395/.547 with the nine home runs, 19 stolen bases and 40 RBI. This development saw him showing up on several Top 100 prospect lists for the first time.
Ironically. Ramírez hasn’t played since Sunday because of an illness. One assumes he feels better now.
Shaw goes on the IL with back tightness after hitting .242/.291/.400 and playing a lot more than many of us thought after the Cubs signed Alex Bregman in the offseason.
Ramírez is not in the starting lineup today, but he is at Wrigley Field and ready to play.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - MAY 15: Spencer Arrighetti #41 of the Houston Astros gestures as he leaves the game in the eighth inning against the Texas Rangers at Daikin Park on May 15, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) | Getty Images
TODAY’S GAME: The Houston Astros (20-31) and Chicago Cubs (29-21) will begin their 3-game series this afternoon at Wrigley Field.
RHP Spencer Arrighetti (5-1, 1.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Astros as he takes on RHP Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.97 ERA).
Houston Area Connection: Both of today’s starters grew up in the Greater Houston area. Arrighetti is a 2018 graduate of Cinco Ranch High School (Katy, TX) while Taillon is a 2010 graduate of The Woodlands High School (Woodlands, TX).
SPENCER’S GIFTS: Since making his season debut on April 15, RHP Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the top starters in the Majors. For the season, he is 5-1 in just 6 starts with a 1.50 ERA (6ER/36IP) and a miniscule .176 opp. avg….
Since April 15, he is T-1st in the AL in wins.
Model of Consistency: Arrighetti has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his 6 starts and 2 ER or less in all 6 starts.
Last Start: Arrighetti took a no-hitter into the 8th inning in his last start on May 15 vs. TEX, which ended in a 2-0 win (7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R).
VS. THE CUBBIES: The Astros took 2 of 3 vs. the Cubs in the only series between the two clubs last season (June 27-29 at Daikin Park).
The Astros last visit to Wrigley Field was a 3-game series in April of 2024 (3-gm sweep by CHC). The Astros are 7-5 in their last 4 series vs. the Cubs (since 2019).
All-Time: The Astros are 385-338 all-time vs. the Cubbies. Their 385 wins vs. them are their 2nd-most vs. any opponent (404-455 vs. CIN).
First Game Ever: The very first official game of the Houston franchise was vs. the Cubs on April 10, 1962, when the Colt .45s defeated the Cubs, 11-2, at Colt Stadium, behind a CG win by LHP Bobby Shantz.
IN THE DAYTIME: Today is the 2nd of 4 consecutive scheduled day games for the Astros. Wednesday’s series finale at MIN had a 12:40 p.m. start and all 3 games this weekend at Wrigley Field will begin at 1:20 p.m.
The last time that the Astros have played 4 consecutive day games was April 2-6 of last season (source: Elias).
ROADIES: Today is the 3rd game (1-2 thus far) of a 10-game, 3-city road trip for HOU. HOU went 1-2 at MIN on the 1st stop of the trip.
After this series in CHC, they travel back to Texas for a 4-game series vs. the Rangers at Globe Life Field (Mon.-Thurs).
ROAD WARRIORS: The Astros have been one of the AL’s top hitting teams on the road in 2026.
Entering today’s game, HOU leads the AL in road batting avg. (.267) and OBP (.336) while ranking 2nd in SLG (.412) and OPS (.749).
RARE VISIT TO WRIGLEY: The current series marks just the 2nd visit to Wrigley Field for the Astros since 2013. The 2013 season is when the Astros were moved to the American League.
ROSTER MOVES: The Astros have selected RHP Alimber Santa (#72) from Triple A Sugar Land.
The Astros optioned RHP Jayden Murray to Triple A Sugar Land following Wednesday’s game.
RHP Cody Bolton cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple A Sugar Land yesterday.
THERE IS A SANTA: RHP Alimber Santa has been outstanding for Triple A Sugar Land this season. In his 18 relief appearances, Santa is 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA (3ER/19IP), allowing just 10 hits in his 19.0 innings of work for a .159 opp. avg. He had not allowed a run in his last 6 app. (5.2 IP).
PEN PALS: As a group, the Astros bullpen has had decent run of success recently.
Since May 8, they have a combined ERA of 3.48 (16ER/41.1IP).
Individually, several relievers are currently pitching well:
–RHP Bryan Abreu: 0.00 ERA in last 6 outings (6 IP, 0 R).
–RHP AJ Blubaugh: 2.18 ERA in last 8 outings (12.1 IP, 3 ER).
–LHP Bryan King: 1.74 ERA in last 9 outings (10.1 IP, 2 ER)
–LHP Steven Okert: 1.29 ERA in last 7 outings (7.0 IP, 1 ER) and has 7 K’s in his last 3.1 IP (3 app).
BRYAN’S SONG: After a slow start to his season, RHP Bryan Abreu has not allowed a run in his last 6 outings, covering 6.0 IP (3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO).
In his last 8 appearances, Abreu has posted a 1.12 ERA (1ER/8.0IP) with 9 K’s.
THE BIG OH: LHP Steven Okert punched out all 3 batters that he faced last night, giving him 7 K’s in his last 3.1 IP (3 app.). He has not allowed a run in his last 5 app. (5.1 IP).
AIR YORDAN: Yordan Alvarez is batting .309 with 11 doubles, 15 HR, 31 RBI and a 1.017 OPS (.412 OBP/.605 SLG).
In the AL, he ranks first in total bases (112), 2nd in OPS and SLG, 3rd in OBP, T-4th in HR and 5th in batting avg.
EE-SOCK: Wednesday night’s HR for Isaac Paredes was #97 in his career. He needs 3 more HR to become the 4th MLB player born in Mexico to reach 100 career HR.
ON THE LEADER BOARD: As a club, the Astros currently rank T-2nd in the AL in hits (422), 3rd in batting avg. (.246) and SLG (.404) and 5th in OPS (.725).
WALKER, TEXAS HAMMER: 1B Christian Walker has been one of the top hitting 1st basemen in the AL this season, ranking among all AL leaders in several offensive categories. He is 2nd on the club in HR (11) and T-1st in RBI (31).
Among the AL leaders, Walker ranks T-8th in RBI (31), T-10th in HR (11), 9th in total bases (90) and 11th in SLG (.489).
APPLE TV: Wayne Randazzo, Dontrelle Willis and Heidi Watney will call the action for today’s Apple TV. telecast.
TODAY IN ASTROS HISTORY: 2021 – RHP Lance McCullers Jr. strikes out four batters in the 1st inning in a start against the Rangers in Arlington. He fans Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis García, Joey Gallo and Khris Davis consecutively in the frame, with Gallo reaching safely on a wild pitch.
McCullers becomes the fifth Astros pitcher since the year 2000 to record four strikeouts in an inning and the first since RHP Ken Giles did so in 2016.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Friday, May 22, 1:20 p.m. CT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
TV: Apple TV
Streaming: Apple TV
Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)
United States Postal Service mail cart with letter carrier satchels positioned against a stone-tiled wall, Presidio Heights, San Francisco, California, April 30, 2025. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images) | Gado via Getty Images
I decided to field some questions on X (Twitter) about the Rays and respond to them in a mailbag format article. This edition covers the improvements the Rays have made this season, the decisions facing the Rays in this year’s draft, and what the trade deadline could look like for the team.
Jack McGovern (@jackmcgovern14): Outside of contact rates, pitch usage trends, and the power of friendship, what is the thing that has stood out to you as the biggest difference maker between the 2025 and 2026 Rays?
Run prevention has been the difference maker this season. The team ERA is nearly half a run lower than in 2025 despite similar FIP and xFIP numbers. Some of this can be attributed to being back at the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field, but a bigger piece may be the defense. The 2026 Rays are converting batted balls into outs more than any other Rays team in the last 15 years. They’re turning batted balls into outs 69.6% of the time while last year it was only 66.8%. That may not sound significant, but over a full season it projects to roughly 120-130 fewer hits allowed than in 2025. That’s nearly five more games’ worth of outs.
Houston (@HoustonBohde): How would you rank Cholowsky, Emerson, and Lackey and their fit within the Rays system?
Sad Rays Fan (@rays4403): What do you think the Rays do at 1.02 and can you break down the profiles of the favorites to be available for the Rays (Lackey and Emerson)?
I’m grouping these two together because they’re related. Roch Cholowsky is the best player available in the draft and he’s in a tier of his own. I’d be surprised if the White Sox did not pick him, and there’s no need to try to get creative with bonus pool money when you’re picking at the top and there’s a clear choice. For me, Grady Emerson is the second-best player available, and then it’s a toss-up between Vahn Lackey and Jackson Flora. Teams don’t draft based on need or fit – especially in the first round. I expect the Rays to take Emerson, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they went with Lackey or Flora at an underslot deal to land an overslot deal with their comp pick at 33.
Roch has a high upside with above average tools across the board and he plays a plus shortstop. His collegiate track record gives him a relatively high floor. This combination is what makes him a clear number one pick.
Emerson has a fairly similar profile with above average tools across the board, but the power isn’t fully present yet because he’s still a teenager. The hit tool is special though, so he has the highest floor of any high school player in this class and maybe even last year’s class. The inherent risk that comes with picking a teenager is what puts him just behind Roch.
Lackey has been on a rocket ship all year and looks comfortably in the next tier behind Roch and Emerson. He’s a solid receiver with an above average arm, and he should continue to develop into a plus defender thanks to these traits along with his athleticism. He’ll have a bit of hit tool risk, but he hedges that with a disciplined approach that allows him to get into his plus power. The difference in hit tool is what separates Lackey from Emerson for me.
Flora is a big, physical righty with a pair of plus pitches in his mid-to-upper 90s fastball with solid shape from his slot and a hard, upper 80s cut-slider he can throw to both sides of the plate. His feel for spin and emerging offspeed pitch give him a deep arsenal, and his control gives him a strong chance to remain a starter at the next level. There will always be more questions with pitchers coming out of the draft given the greater injury risk and the differences between the college, minor league, and MLB baseballs, but Flora profiles as at least a mid-rotation starter with room for more as he develops his secondary pitches.
Sean Smyth (@Sean_SmythTBR): Given their current performance, what does a realistic trade deadline look like for the Rays?
The Rays always look to thread the needle between buyers and sellers. Emptying the farm for a rental doesn’t align with their philosophy, but they do have quite a bit of shuffling to do with the relatively high number of Rule 5 eligible players this year. Not all of them will need protection, but I do expect them to consolidate some prospects for some major league talent to reinforce the roster.
They’ll likely target both rental pitchers and controllable arms beyond 2026. I don’t expect any major changes to the position player group other than maybe some depth at middle infield. I think we’ll see them package some prospects for a starting pitcher and potentially a reliever depending on how Rodriguez, Uceta, and Wilson progress in their return from injury. Much of the deadline market may depend on which teams commit to selling first; nearly one-third of the league is hovering within three games of .500.