San Diego Padres Xander Bogaerts (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In a move that drew little fanfare, San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen made a subtle change to the batting order. He moved Xander Bogaerts from the bottom of the lineup to the leadoff spot and Fernando Tatis Jr. to the middle of the order.
The Padres are seeking better run production from the lineup in 2026. The manager wants a leadoff hitter who has a high on-base percentage and can put himself in scoring position to maximize the lineup’s run-producing potential. Bogaerts fits the criteria, as he is a high-contact hitter with a career .350 OBP and stole a career-high 25 bases last season.
Leadoff hitters were once catalysts for an offense
Historically, the prototypical major league leadoff hitter was a catalyst for their team to get off to a good start in games. They reached base either by a base hit or drawing a walk because of good plate discipline.
It forced a starting pitcher to throw his entire repertoire during the course of the at-bat. Taking pitches allows their teammates to gauge how a pitcher is throwing before their initial plate appearance. Once at first base, a leadoff hitter must use their speed to put themselves in scoring position for the middle-of-the-order hitters.
Some of the best examples of this type of leadoff hitter are Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock and Ichiro Suzuki.
Speed no longer required to leadoff
However, in today’s analytical-driven sport, baseball has shifted the definition of a leadoff hitter. Managers want them to maximize their team’s first at-bats with proven hitters. Instead of a speedy table setter, the focus is now on finding a leadoff hitter with power and discipline.
The advanced metrics show Bogaerts fits the bill, as he has a consistent contact rate at 80% and an above-average career strikeout rate at 18% heading into the 2026 campaign. Stammen recognized that he averages at least four pitches before Bogaerts puts the ball in play. Having his batting acumen at the top of the lineup should jump-start the Friars’ offense.
By all signs in Spring Training, the move to the leadoff spot should offer a resurgence for Bogaerts at the plate. The projected numbers for him are a .272 batting average with a .331 OPS this season. It demonstrates that Bogaerts can make the transition from the lower third to the top of the order.
The Padres manager believes a consistent contact hitter is the right approach for the leadoff spot of the batting order. Bogaerts can draw walks, put the ball in play, and occasionally hit the ball out of the park.
Stammen expects the current look of the Friars’ lineup to score runs, but it all begins at the top.
SURPRISE, AZ - MARCH 12: Jack Leiter #22 of the Texas Rangers pitches during the game between the Athletics and the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium on Thursday, March 12, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Sydni Griffin/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
FT. MYERS, FL - MARCH 13: A general view as the sun rises during a Boston Red Sox spring training team workout on March 13, 2022 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning! The Red Sox did something yesterday they hadn’t done in a few weeks: they signed someone to the big league roster. Left-handed middle relief had been one of the weakest spots on the team — and given Danny Coulombe’s injury history and age, you could say it still is. But he undeniably fits a need.
So with Coulombe on board, is there anything else you’d like to the Sox to do with the roster before the season starts? Is there another free agent reliever or bench bat you’d like to see? Still hoping for a trade of one of the outfielders? Talk about roster needs and whatever else you want, and, as always, be good to one another.
SARASOTA, FLORIDA - MARCH 11: Heston Kjerstad #13 of the Baltimore Orioles bats during the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a spring training game at Ed Smith Stadium on March 11, 2026 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Things are getting real, people. The Orioles’ 2026 season begins in just under two weeks, with a home opener against Minnesota on March 26th. The spring has had its fun and games, but it’s nearing time to make final roster cuts. With that, let’s summarize what we’ve learned, with an eye to roster decisions.
Some position groups remain more open-ended than others. Take the starters, for instance. Often a category that’s slim pickings for the Orioles, of late, the front office has opted for starter quantity, if not to say over quality. The list of projected locks to make the rotation stands at five: Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, and Dean Kremer, all of whom have looked strong this spring.
You might have had Zach Eflin, signed to a one-year free agent deal in November, on that list, but according to MASN’s Roch Kubatko, Eflin is getting more time to build up his innings before the joining the active roster. That’s fine; with the righty fresh off back surgery last season and memories of copious pitching injuries last season still vivid, it’s OK to let Eflin work his way back to the rotation.
The only question marks here appear to be Cade Povich, and whether the O’s will go with a six-man, or a five-man outfit. The rookie is having a nice spring, with a 1.59 ERA in 5.2 innings tossed so far, and he’ll get one more start against Philadelphia in Clearwater, but odds are he’ll be in the bullpen or start the season in Norfolk. As for the five- or six-man question, the skipper is keeping mum so far, but keeps saying that a surfeit of resources is a “nice problem to have.”
The Orioles bullpen looks like its usual hodgepodge of random names. The locks appear to be closer Ryan Helsley, Yennier Cano, Tyler Wells, Keegan Akin, Rico Garcia, Grant Wolfram, and maybe Yaramil Hiraldo. It’s weird that the last three are now sort-of veterans on the team, but all have been spotless so far this spring, and are benefiting from the temporary absence of Andrew Kittredge, out with shoulder inflammation. Who else? Lefty Dietrich Enns has a lousy 18.90 ERA so far, but at least he’s continuing to strike guys out (6 in 3.1 spring IP), so after his revelatory 2025, it looks like he’ll be on the list, too.
That leaves, on the outside looking in, Jose Espada, Jackson Kowar, Cameron Foster, Anthony Nunez, and Albert Suárez. Shoulder troubles married Suárez’s 2025 season, and in three spring training tries he’s laid an egg once, allowing seven runs to the Cards, but with his long track record, expect him to be a part of the bullpen picture going forward. José Espada, 29, a journeyman now playing for Team Puerto Rico in the WBC, remains interesting after three scoreless innings this spring. Jackson Kowar, acquired from the Twins for cash in February, could end up a roster crunch as he doesn’t have any options remaining. Newcomers Cameron Foster and Anthony Nunez were optioned on Sunday, but it looks like they will be considerations, too.
Turning to the infield, there’s not much to say at catcher. Maverick Handley and Sam Huff will serve as depth, unless a need arises behind Samuel Basallo or Adley Rutschman (it’d better not).
Beyond the backstop, things get interesting. If we plan on six infielders, it seems clear that the list will include at least Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle, and Blaze Alexander. That’s five. Injuries to second baseman Jackson Holliday and third baseman Jordan Westburg have opened up spots for Mountcastle and Mayo, the latter—who knew!—at third. And while Mayo isn’t likely to win a Gold Glove at the hot corner, the bat looks good (.500 BA in 26 spring AB’s), so he’ll keep the spot warm until Westburg gets back.
That’s one more infield spot left for a rando (excuse my language). Under consideration, we have Jeremiah Jackson, Thairo Estrada, Luis Vázquez, Bryan Ramos, Willy Vasquez, José Barrero, and Weston Wilson. Jackson, who has played some right field, would seem to have the edge as a utility guy who can back up in the outfield (same for Alexander). Luiz Vázquez, off playing for Team Puerto Rico, isn’t on the 40-man, but he did a nice job in the field in 21 games last season.
Lastly, the outfield. With five spots to fill, the lineup seems set here: Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill, Taylor Ward, and Leody Taveras. Beavers and Cowser remain exciting youngsters worthy of playing time; Ward and O’Neill have contracts, and Taveras, 27, has positional versatility in his 11th (wow!) professional season.
That seems to leave no room for Heston Kjerstad, Enrique Bradfield Jr, or Jhonkensy Noel. Not a surprise for Bradfield, who just reached Triple-A at the end of last season and didn’t hit much in spring training (1-for-9). Noel, 24, had a nice spring (.375 BA and .882 OPS in 16 AB’s), but the O’s can use more time to check out what the former Cleveland farmhand brings to the table. As for a finally healthy-seeming Kjerstad, he finally showed us his big-boy bat, with an .823 OPS and four extra-base hits in 30 AB’s. I’m thrilled for him, but he’ll likely start in Norfolk and get the chance to hit his way back to the majors.
That should do it. Really, surveying the state of things, what we’re talking about are less roster battles than roster crunches. How will Albernaz mix-and-match six or seven potential starters? Will guys like Cade Povich, Tyler Wells, and Albert Suárez serve as long men or more orthodox relievers? Will lesser-known names like José Espada and Jhonkensy Noel get playing time? More is merrier, it seems, when it comes to roster design. Hopefully this plays out well this season.
PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 12: Daniel Vazquez #98 of the Kansas City Royals slides into home plate to score against Freddy Fermin #54 of the San Diego Padres in the fifth inning during a spring training game at Peoria Stadium on March 12, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images
German Marquez and JP Sears were squarely in the mix in the competition to decide the fifth spot in the starting rotation for the San Diego Padres. Their respective candidacies took a hit in San Diego’s 10-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals at the Peoria Sports Complex on Thursday. Marquez had easily his worst outing of the spring and that was in large part due to his lack of command. Marquez finished his outing after 1.2 innings pitched. He allowed six earned runs on four hits with four walks and a strikeout. Sears fared a little better considering he pitched four innings, but he allowed three runs on five hits with six strikeouts. The plus for Sears is that he kept the ball in the yard and he did not allow a walk. The Padres offense was held in check throughout the game and managed just five hits. The lone run scored for San Diego came on the strength of a Ramon Laureano home run in the bottom of the sixth inning. The Padres will look to have a better outing when they take on the Athletics at Hohokam Stadium in Mesa, Ariz. today at 1:05 p.m.
Padres News:
Padres manager Craig Stammen announced on Thursday that reliever Bryan Hoeing will have surgery on his elbow and will miss the 2026 season. On a positive note, starter Matt Waldron faced hitters in live at-bats and seems to be ramping up to make his return.
The Friar Faithful have not seen him pitch for their beloved Padres, but we have been told Griffin Canning could prove to be a formidable back-end starter when he his cleared to play. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune made Canning the focus of his Padres roster review.
Zack Wheeler continues to work back to a return to the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies. He threw his first live batting practice since his injury on Thursday.
Quinn Priester, starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, will begin the season on the IL. The team is hoping his return will be sooner than later if he can avoid surgery.
Mar 11, 2026; Miami, FL, United States; Dominican Republic center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) celebrates with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) and left fielder Juan Soto (22) after the game against Venezuela at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Yesterday was an off day for the WBC, so instead of our daily recap we’ll take this opportunity to look ahead to the quarterfinal round that begins tonight and continues tomorrow. The tournament now advances to a single elimination format, with two sides of a bracket that will narrow eight teams down to two.
There will be two games tonight, with the first being Korea vs. Dominican Republic at 6:30. The D.R. has been an offensive powerhouse as expected, bulldozing their way through Pool D. They have scored the most runs (41), hit the most home runs (13), and collected the second most overall hits (40). Their absolutely loaded lineup has been led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr., as that pair has combined to hit .480 with four home runs and 16 RBIs. The Phillies own Cristopher Sánchez has been named the starter for tonight’s game.
Korea meanwhile was the runner-up to Japan in Pool C, going 2-2 with a pair of wins against Czechia and Australia and a pair of losses against Japan and Chinese Taipei. Bo Gyeong Moon opened the tournament with a grand slam in the first inning of Korea’s first game against Czechia and hasn’t slowed down there. The first baseman is hitting .538 with two home runs and a tournament best 11 RBIs.
The second game tonight will be the United States against Canada. The U.S. and its manager Mark DeRosa got bailed out from a possible humiliating exit thanks to Italy, as they were still able to make it out of Pool B despite their previous loss to Italy. Their offense has been just about as advertised in most categories, as they’re first in hits (41) and second to the D.R. in total runs (40). However, one area that’s been lacking is power, as their seven home runs are fifth most and are nearly half of the D.R. (13) and Italy (12). The U.S. can still lean on its pitching though even if the loss of Tarik Skubal has made it just a little thinner, as they will send Logan Webb to the mound tonight for his second start of the tournament.
Canada has advanced to the quarterfinal round for the first time in its history, winning Pool A with a 3-1 record. Their pitching staff has pitched well, allowing the third fewest runs (10) in the tournament, and their hitting has been able to manufacture enough offense to overcome just two total home runs and the second fewest runs total (21) of the eight remaining teams. Michael Soroka will take the ball against the U.S. in his second start following three innings of one-run ball that earned him the win against Columbia.
Saturday
On the other side of the bracket that starts Saturday, we have the upstart Italy taking on Puerto Rico at 3:00. Italy has been the surprise of the tournament, as their upset of the U.S. being one of the biggest wins so far. Their offense has been impressive with 12 home runs and 32 runs scored. Phillies prospect Dante Nori has had a strong tournament, hitting .500 with two homers and a team-leading six hits and five RBIs. Aaron Nola’s five shutout innings against Mexico was one of the best pitching performances so far and was the saving grace of his Phillies teammates Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brad Keller on Team U.S.A.
Puerto Rico, despite having one of their weaker teams in recent memory, was still able to advance to the quarterfinal round as the runner up to Canada in Pool A. Their pitching has carried them, as their 1.22 ERA is the best in the WBC and their 40 strikeouts are fourth most. Their offense hasn’t impressed with just 10 runs scored, but they have been able to get clutch hits when needed, capped off by arguably the most dramatic moment of the WBC so far with Darrell Hernaiz’s walk-off homer against Panama.
Defending champions Japan will look to continue their march back to the finals with their quarterfinal game against Venezuela. Japan has predictably been a juggernaut, outscoring their opponents 34-9 and pitching two shutouts. They’re third in home runs (8) and total runs offensively while their pitching staff is second in ERA (2.12) and strikeouts (49). Shohei Ohtani has of course done Shohei Ohtani things, as the reigning WBC MVP is 5-9 with two home runs including a grand slam for six total RBIs in just three games played. World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start on Saturday in his second appearance this WBC. He threw 2.2 scoreless in his only other appearance against Chinese Taipei.
Venezuela will look to knockoff the reigning champs with their own well-balanced roster. Their lineup that includes Ronald Acuña Jr., Luis Arráez, Jackson Chourio, and Eugenio Suárez among others ranks seventh in runs scored (26) while their pitching staff that includes Ranger Suárez and Eduardo Rodriguez is fifth in ERA (2.75). Suárez has already been named the starter against Yamamoto. Ranger is also making his second appearance after allowing one run in three innings in the opener against the Netherlands.
SEATTLE, WA - JULY 07: Owen Hall #20 of the American League Team pitches during the MLB-USA Baseball High School All-American Game at T-Mobile Park on Friday, July 7, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The prep pitcher theme continues at number 18 with right-hander Owen Hall. At least the now 20-year-old Hall got on the mound last spring for a few games before going down with a stress reaction in his right shoulder. Considering how things have gone with their prep pitchers from the draft, the Tigers didn’t hesitate to shut him down and put him through an extended rehab program and then strength and conditioning to get him better prepared for full season ball in 2026. He’s throwing in camp this spring, and plenty of eyes will be on his progress this season.
Hall was the Tigers second round pick in the 2024 draft out of Edmond North HS in Oklahoma. The right-hander impressed on the summer circuit between his junior and senior years, where he was topping out at 96-97 mph already. He then put together a monster campaign featuring 75 strikeouts to just 13 walks, and a 1.65 ERA as a senior. He was a featured starter in the All-American All-Star game during All-Star week that summer.The Tigers paid him $1.75 million as the 10th pick in the second round to pass on his commitment to Vanderbilt.
He didn’t pitch after the draft, which is standard procedure for the Tigers, particularly with high schoolers. However, in the leadup to spring camp in 2025 videos from his training at the Pitching WRX facility in Oklahoma City, where Hall trained with Jackson Jobe, emerged showing really outstanding metrics on his stuff and velocity up to 98 mph with pretty good extension, spin, and movement on his fastball and slider. There was plenty of excitement in camp as he neared his pro debut. Unfortunately, his shoulder started barking pretty quickly and the Tigers shut him down for the year after only four short starts for the Single-A Lakeland Flying Tigers.
Hall stands 6’3” with a lean build and long levers. He’d clearly added some muscle in his first offseason as a professional and presumably is already bigger than his listed 185 pounds. Apart from the raw stuff on display, Hall’s repeatable delivery and good extension down the mound all projected well for his development. He has a pretty long arm stroke, but is able to keep his release point relatively low despite his vertical forearm position into release, in part because he gets down the mound well and really sinks into his left leg. As he builds those legs up, his ability to resist and generate more of his velo from his legs will improve. The relatively low release helps the riding action on the fourseamer play up, and his ability to stay behind it helps him spin the heck out of it. At its best Hall has a really explosive fastball that gets on hitters quickly even when sitting 93-94 mph, as he did in his brief Lakeland work.
He did top out at 96.2 mph with the Flying Tigers while showcasing the whopping spin rates, posting numerous fourseamers over 2500 rpms. His IVB numbers sat between 17-18 inches of ride, and he also showed himself capable of mixing in a sinker with a lot more run to jam right-handed hitters. It was only a brief look at him, but the ability to use both with advanced command for his age was a very positive sign prior to the shoulder trouble. He also showcased his mid-80’s slider, which features nasty two-plane break and should be a plus pitch for him. Hall also had a pretty advanced changeup in high school with a lot of late movement, though he still needed to work to kill some velocity on it without giving the game away. Unfortunately, he didn’t get to pitch enough to give us many looks at that pitch with the Flying Tigers.
Hall is reportedly throwing in camp, so for now at least, the Tigers have gotten him through the shoulder issues through their caution. Reports from camp say they’ve managed to build him up in the gym in the interim. Of all the prep pitchers they’ve drafted, Hall remains the most exciting of the bunch and the one who already has the makings of a starter’s arsenal and delivery. The Tigers will still want to be fairly careful with his workload in what will be his first full pro season, knock on wood, but with a fair amount of work under his belt over the last two offseasons, he’s one to keep a close eye on and probably the most likely to break out in 2026.
Baseball: Boston Red Sox Garrett Crochet (35) and Carlos Narvaez (75) in action, talking vs New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Bronx NY 8/23/2025 CREDIT: Erick W. Rasco (Photo by Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X164756 TK1)
If there’s one team that Yankees fans will keep up with every season (outside of the men in pinstripes), it’s their biggest rival: the Boston Red Sox. Regardless of the race in the American League East, the rivalry between the Sox and the Yankees is one that continues to heat up every time the two take the field against one another and get closer in the standings.
Last season, the Red Sox were competitive with both the Yankees and the Blue Jays for the top of the AL East, ultimately settling for a Wild Card spot that still marked their first playoff berth in four years and just their second since winning it all in 2018. Led by an up-and-down effort from the lineup and some excellent performances from the mound, the Red Sox will look to make up the ground they were missing in 2025 this time around.
2025 record: 89-73 (3rd, AL East) 2026 FanGraphs projection: 85-77 (3rd, AL East)
Led by now-longtime manager Alex Cora the Red Sox have had a busy offseason of moves that have even extended into the start of spring training. The biggest news out of Beantown, and one that came as a bit of a surprise to those within the organization. was the loss of Alex Bregman, who—in addition to being a clubhouse leader—finished the season with a 125 wRC+ and 3.5 fWAR, the third-highest on the team last season. However, with his loss comes plenty of additions, both to a rotation that needed some insurance and a lineup that could always use another bat to help “recreate Bregman in the aggregate.”
The biggest statement came shortly after Bregman came to terms with the Cubs, as Boston responded by signing starter Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million contract. The southpaw finished last season with a 12-8 record, 3.20 ERA, and 151 strikeouts in 157.1 innings pitched for the Philadelphia Phillie, and figures to team up with ace Garrett Crochet to form a fearsome one-two punch. And to continue bolstering their rotation, they traded for Cardinals lefty Sonny Gray (a familiar name to Yankees fans) and Pirates righty Johan Oviedo to round out their top five, alongside playoff Game 2 starter Brayan Bello. Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford could also be rotation options when they are deemed healthy enough as well, as Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins were dealt as part of their offseason moves. The bullpen is still led by erstwhile Yankeses closer Aroldis Chapman, who had a career season at age 37, winning AL Reliever of the Year, pitching 61.1 innings, and finishing with a 1.17 ERA (the lowest of his career), a 2.53 xFIP, a 12.5 K/9, and a 2.6 fWAR — the second-highest among anyone on the pitching staff.
And the most recent news for the pitching staff broke as of March 12th, as the Red Sox signed free-agent left-handed pitcher Danny Coulombe, who finished the year with a 2.30 ERA in 43.2 innings. However, it was a tale of two different teams, as he finished his time with the Twins with a 1.16 ERA in 31 innings pitched. Then in 15 games and 12.0 innings pitched with the Rangers after he was traded there, Coulombe finished the year with a 5.25 ERA and 12 strikeouts. So, for the second season in a row, he will get a fresh start.
Of course, we can’t not talk about Crochet for just a moment. After finishing second in the AL Cy Young Award race behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, the big lefty is looking to finish the campaign on top of the pitching world. He finished last season with a 2.59 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, and a 5.8 fWAR, not just the highest of anyone on the pitching staff by over double the points, but also the most of anyone on the Red Sox last season. All of that occurred in 205.1 innings pitched, easily the highest count of his career, beating his previous best of 146 with the White Sox in 2024. Add in a stellar Wild Card Series start in the Bronx, and it all made for an outstanding debut in Boston. Extended for six years and $170 million shortly after Opening Day 2025, Crochet will be a thorn in the Yankees’ side for quite awhile.
When looking at the lineup, there isn’t much that needed to be changed outside of making up for the lost bat of Bregman. But the Red Sox did just that by trading for first baseman Willson Contreras, who finished last season in St. Louis with a 124 wRC+ and a 2.8 fWAR, not quite what Bregman produced defensively but also good enough with the bat to make up for it. In mid-February, they also swung a trade with Milwaukee to add two key infielders: former Yankees farmhand Caleb Durbin, who finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and Andruw Monasterio, who had a 110 OPS+ in 68 games. Look for Durbin to take the majority of reps at third base in Bregman’s absence.
Along with the addition of Contreras, the Red Sox have plenty of weapons throughout their lineup. Jarren Duran was the leader in fWAR for the hitters at 3.9, but Ceddanne Rafaela was just behind him at 3.8. In fact, the Red Sox had four hitters reach the 3.0 mark last season (including Bregman) and eight reach the 2.0 mark, including Rafael Devers, who finished eighth but was of course traded to the Giants in mid-June.
The player to watch amongst those who finished with 2.0 fWAR or above is Roman Anthony, who reached the mark in just 71 games. The moment he stepped on a big league diamond, the rookie made his presence felt and has continued lighting up opposing pitching whenever he was penciled into the lineup. Like Crochet, he impressed enough to earn a midseason extension, for eight years and $130 million. At just 21 years old, there is so much in store for him both in the field and at the plate for the Red Sox.
With the pitching additions the Sox made, along with their strong lineup up and down, there will be plenty of battles at the top of the AL East as 2026 moves forward.
More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.
We did this with the starters on Wednesday. We looked at six key numbers that can help us both explain why some pitchers succeed and some fail and hopefully help us predict progression or regression. Reliever numbers in particular are ver volatile. When you condense 180 innings into 50 or 60, you are going to have some pretty wild swings back and forth in certain numbers.
Last time, we noted that BABIP, left on base percentage, and home runs per fly ball tend to be a little more volatile than the other numbers. So, we key in on chase rate, hard hit rate, and contact rate as generally more stable and maybe more predictive in whether a pitcher will be good, average, or bad. As I have each and every time, I am listing our numbers below and their league averages for your perusal.
Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.
HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.
LOB%: It is pretty self-explanatory. It is the number of runners that get stranded on base. The league average tends to be around 70 percent. Of course, there is some debate as to whether pitchers control that or not.
Bryan Abreu
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
28.5
34.0
.259
62.2
9.8
87.6
2024
30.5
38.0
.286
68.8
11.7
82.9
2025
31.0
45.5
.309
60.8
6.8
84.6
Aggregate
30.0
39.2
.285
63.9
9.4
85.0
Abreu raises some questions that need answering from those of us that crunch numbers. Can pitchers control how many runners they strand? Abreu has consistently stranded well above the league average, so maybe he is just more adept at doing it. Maybe it has something to do with low contact rates. Maybe there is a clutch gene that these numbers just can’t touch. Still, if we remove that number entirely we see what Abreu’s superpower is. He misses bats and does so at a very high rate.
The difficulty with Abreu is that some of the other numbers point to regression. Hard hit rates have steadily gotten higher and BABIP has gotten higher with it. He also might have lucked out a little with home runs last season. Add that all up and he probably regresses some this season. The contact rates will step keep him effective overall though.
Enyel de los Santos
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
29.8
33.3
.275
74.4
5.9
72.2
2024
28.1
42.3
.291
72.5
19.5
80.1
2025
28.8
40.1
.292
72.7
9.0
67.4
Aggregate
28.9
38.6
.286
73.2
11.5
73.2
de los Santos is the definition of an average pitcher. He is also a perfect example of how an average pitcher can look really good in short bursts. That was the case in 2023 when he was with Cleveland. de los Santos will start on the injured list, but I am guessing he will figure into the bullpen somehow. Like with most middle relievers, you are praying to the baseball gods for good batted ball luck.
Josh Hader
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
34.6
28.3
.264
68.5
5.8
88.8
2024
36.5
38.8
.230
62.0
15.8
67.0
2025
40.7
33.9
.202
61.1
12.3
88.8
Aggregate
37.3
33.7
.236
63.9
11.3
81.5
The main difference between Hader and Abreu is the chase rate. Hader gets guys to chase that slider more often than Abreu gets chase on his. Otherwise, they are similar pitchers. They limit contact and depend on high stranded rates and low BABIP rates to thrive. Hader will begin the season on the injured list, but hopefully should miss the minimum amount of time and resume his role as the team’s closer. There is little reason to expect anything other than what he has done in recent seasons.
Bryan King
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
—-
—-
.302
74.9
6.7
83.9
2024
24.7
34.4
.302
78.3
4.3
82.3
2025
30.5
36.1
.276
78.0
14.5
88.5
Aggregate
27.6
35.3
.293
77.1
8.5
84.6
Monty Python did “Life of Brian” where an ordinary guy was mistaken for the savior. King has the look of an ordinary guy that did extraordinary things last season largely due to an astronomically high left on base rate. Add in a little lower BABIP than normal and you can see where this is going. Predicting more of the same from King would be tantamount to “magical thinking.” He has fairly average rates otherwise, so expecting average is probably in the cards. Average relievers have value, but they probably shouldn’t be pitching after the seventh inning in close games.
Peter Lambert
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
26.0
40.0
,296
79.5
15.8
71.4
2024
25.0
45.8
.344
80.3
10.6
65.8
2025
—-
36.7
.331
——
10.1
74.4
Aggregate
25.5
40.8
.327
79.9
12.2
70.5
Lambert pitched overseas last season, so some of the numbers are missing and some of these are minor league numbers. He is a high octane arm that might provide some quality innings if given the opportunity. He has been sparkling so far in camp, so he has a decent chance to make the team. If you think in terms of Kaleb Ort then you are probably on the right wavelength. The Astros have made a living off of these guys and he might be another that serves them well until he reverts back into a pumpkin.
Roddery Munoz
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
27.3
40.3
.291
71.1
15.5
68.1
2024
25.4
45.0
.267
78.6
21.8
70.3
2025
37.2
36.0
.311
61.0
11.1
77.3
Aggregate
31.5
40.4
.290
70.2
16.1
71.9
Munoz’s spring has been a fascinating microcosm in the life of a relief pitcher. His first few outings were rocky and so his overall numbers probably don’t look great. Still, they don’t reflect how well he has pitched and given that he is a Rule V pick, he probably still has a leg up on a bullpen slot. How good can he be? Like most of these other guys, he will be a slave to batted ball luck. The results show he missed more bats last season. Maybe he found something and if so then he could be a good one.
Steven Okert
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
27.6
34.5
.295
72.0
11.8
77.0
2024
21.9
29.6
.304
78.1
13.0
72.4
2025
26.0
32.7
.230
69.1
6.4
71.2
Aggregate
25.2
32.3
.273
73.1
10.4
73.5
The Astros rely more heavily on these BABIP warriors than most other teams and therefore their season to season results are more volatile. That can partially explain why they seem to get off to slow starts. It takes Joe Espada (or Dusty Baker before him) several weeks to figure out who the hot hand will be. Last season it was Okert, King, and Bennett Sousa. This year it will likely be some other guys. Okert looks okay according to the numbers, but he’s not special and likely will revert back to average.
Bennett Sousa
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
38.6
44.0
.326
59.3
20.0
66.1
2024
—-
—-
—-
——
——
——
2025
39.1
36.8
.271
64.8
7.5
73.3
Aggregate
38.9
40.4
.299
62.1
13.8
29.7
Depending on health, Sousa mght have been more of a find than King and Okert. He gets much higher chase rates and has a lot more swing and miss from opposing batters. That is generally more sustainable than what King and Okert are doing. So, getting him back could be a key to making the bullpen a little longer. The danger here is that the track record is obviously shorter which leaves you to wonder if hitters will figure him out eventually.
Kai-Wei Teng
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
LOB%
2023
29.5
23.7
.331
68.2
7.8
70.2
2024
26.1
37.4
.336
79.2
17.8
56.0
2025
32.3
29.8
.322
67.3
8.3
67.9
Aggregate
29.3
30.3
.330
71.6
11.3
64.7
In the movie “Major League” manager Lou Brown utters, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I got a hunch he’s due.” Sometimes, analysis can be just that simple. Teng has been a victim of bad batted ball luck for three years now. Maybe they have a hunch he is due. The BABIP is higher than it should be and the left on base is lower than it should be. Put those back at league norms with the lower contact rates and softer contact and you have yourself something. I wouldn’t put together a bullpen this way, but taking an occasional flier on someone like this never hurts.
Naturally, some of the starters we saw last time will find their way in the pen. I did leave out one or two names that we might see just based on space. However, these nine guys should be the bulk of their bullpen for the coming season. What do you think? Who are you high on?
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 23: Danny Coulombe #54 of the Texas Rangers pitches during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field on September 23, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Bailey Orr/Texas Rangers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s Danny Coulombe and he comes from Scottsdale, Arizona, where he attended one of those powerhouse warm-weather high schools that somehow produces more baseball players in a decade than most New England schools produce in a century. Paul Konerko, Ike Davis, and Brian Bannister are all alumni of Coulombe’s Chaparral High School, as is the actress Busy Phillips, the Bella Twins of WWE, and Stephanie Meyer, vampire romance millionaire.
But Coulombe’s journey to the Notable Alumni tab of his high school’s Wikipedia page was an arduous one. In fact, fifteen years ago he almost gave up on baseball altogether. This was after a disastrous freshman season at USC, where he only made four appearances, and an even worse sophomore campaign at a Phoenix-area community college, where he injured his shoulder in the first inning of first start and was lost for the year.
Coulombe considered calling it quits, but made one more transfer, this time to Texas Tech, where he not only made it through his opening day start, but threw the bulk of the workload in a combined two-hitter. Coulombe was injured again after just 21 innings and underwent Tommy John surgery. But the Dodgers liked what they saw in his small sample size and to took him in the 25th round of the 2012 MLB Draft. Coulombe made his big league debut two years later and subsequently put together an 11-year career as a left-handed reliever, primarily with the A’s and Twins. The Red Sox signed him yesterday to a one-year, $1 million deal.
Is he any good?
In 40 appearances for the Twins last year, Coulombe put up an eye-popping 371 ERA+, making him one of the most dominant relievers in the game for most of the season (Aroldis Chapman’s ERA+ last year was just 351, for comparison’s sake). He is the dictionary definition of a crafty lefty: a guy who strikes out a ton of batters and limits walks (when healthy, his strikeout and walk rates are both consistently well above average), and does it all with a fastball that averages just a touch over 90 MPH, making him one of the baseball’s softest tossers.
Given the success he’s had, you’re probably wondering why the Red Sox were able to sign him for just a million bucks. Well, the first thing to consider is that Coulombe has never been able to shake the injuries that started dogging him back in college. From 2022 through 2025, Coulombe averaged just 39 games a season, missing time due to injuries to his hips, bicep, elbow, forearm, and shoulder. That’s a lot of body parts! Moreover, Coulumbe was traded from the Twins to the Rangers at the deadline last year, and was absolutely horrible in Arlington, giving up 11 hits and an ugly 9 walks in just 12 innings.
Entering his age-36 season, Coulombe is very much in the Eddie Harris phase of his career, getting by on guile and guts and hoping his body holds up for another season or two.
Tl;dr, just give me his 2025 stats.
With the Twins: 31.0 IP, 1.16 ERA, 31 K, 21 H, 9 BB, 0 HR
With the Rangers: 12.0 IP, 5.25 ERA, 12 K, 11 H, 9 BB, 3 HR
Show me a cool highlight.
Here’s his 2025 highlight reel. Check out how frustrated these hitters are. When he’s right, Coulombe is the type of pitcher who leads to a lot of broken bats — not from making contact with his pitches, but from making contact with the dugout walls.
What’s he doing in his picture up there?
He appears to be attempting a cartwheel before delivering a pitch. That’s definitely against the rules, but it’s also the type of move that Bugs Bunny might pull out while twirling yet another perfect game, which only burnishes Coulombe’s crafty lefty credentials even more.
What’s his role on the 2026 Red Sox?
Well, as Jacob Roy pointed out just yesterday in his horribly-timed preview of the Red Sox left-handed relievers, the Sox were seriously lacking in depth in that part of the roster, with Jovani Moran being the leading candidate to be the first lefty arm out of the bullpen. Coulombe will immediately step into that role. How long he stays there will be determined by his health and whether he can fix whatever went wrong for him last year in Texas.
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 4: Blake Snell #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers participates in a throwing session prior to a World Baseball Classic exhibition game against Team Mexico at Camelback Ranch on March 4, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Dodgers slow rolled Blake Snell’s throwing program this offseason, and as a result, he has yet to log a single inning of spring action.
Snell finally threw his first bullpen session one month removed from both pitchers and catchers reporting to camp, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com, but he wasn’t throwing at maximum effort during that 15-pitch session. The likelihood of him getting some innings under his belt this spring is virtually non-existent, and he is guaranteed to be out for the opening series of the regular season against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Snell remarked that it would “be sick” if he is able to make his 2026 debut by late April, but for both Snell and the Dodgers alike, patience is still the most important virtue surrounding his progress as the team looks to get a healthier version of the two-time Cy Young award winner.
“I think it’s a good step in the right direction,” Roberts said, “in the sense of getting on the slope, on the mound. … This is not a max-effort bullpen. So yeah, he’s on the mound, which is great, but until he’s kind of going full steam ahead, then we really don’t know what we’ve got.”
“I was very excited to throw off the mound again and pitch. I’d been looking forward to this for a while… I was still limited to what I could throw. I was throwing 87 to 89 [miles per hour], but felt effortless, easy, good command of the ball, so I’m happy with that.”
Links
All the pomp and circumstance that came with the Dodgers two consecutive championships have come and gone, as the number one priority for the team is to become the first MLB team to three-peat in 26 years. Kiké Hernández, who played a pivotal role in both World Series runs, spoke with the media on Thursday about the mindset of going for a third consecutive title.
“We’re just trying to win this year. We already won the last two years, and that doesn’t do anything for us other than put a target on our backs. We’re trying to win this year, and if we win this year then it just so happens to be three years in a row.”
Friday will mark the final time that Clayton Kershaw will play competitive baseball, as Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com tweets that Team USA manager Mark DeRosa will replace Kershaw with Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan following Friday’s game against Team Canada.
Jayson Stark offers his plan to “fix” the World Baseball Classic. (The Athletic sub. req.) It seems like we get these articles every tournament. His plan is the same one that always gets suggested—hold the knockout rounds in July during All-Star Week.
Yadier Molina hopes that his time managing Puerto Rico will lead to him managing a major league team. Anthony Castrovince with the story. Is Yadi the only person on the planet who doesn’t know that he’s going to manage the Cardinals as soon as they fire Oli Marmol?
SCOTTSDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Kyle Karros #12 of the Colorado Rockies adjusts his hat before taking the field in a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields on Friday, February 20, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Kyle Cooper)
Getting to the Major League level is hard, even for talented players who have excelled at baseball their whole lives.
Staying and playing consistently well is even harder. In addition to the higher level of competition, players also have to adjust to the grind of the MLB schedule. Even with all the talent in the world, a 162-game season is longer than most prospects have ever played before. Finding out how to ensure their bodies handle the grind can be a bit of a learning curve.
This is where Colorado’s training staff comes into play.
They have to monitor and help players make the adjustments for playing in the Big Leagues. According to Scott Murayama, the Rockies coordinator of Major League rehabilitation, it can be a significant shift for some players.
“A lot of times, with younger players, as they’re coming up in minors, they are beat up a little bit. They’re protected a little bit more. Coaches and staff will take them off the field when they have complaints,” Scott Murayama said at Rockies Fest.
“And when they get up here [to the big leagues], they find out, they’re the young guy, and they’ve got to play through. For some of them, it’s a rude awakening because they’re not used to being forced to fight through their soreness or whatever they need. But there’s nobody out on the field who plays 162 games that feels good. You have to figure out what you can play through and what you can’t, and the younger players learn that pretty quick.”
One of the better 2025 MLB debuts came from Kyle Karros, the Rockies fifth-round pick from the 2023 MLB Draft. Son of former Dodger and Rockies killer Eric Karros, Kyle was called up on Aug. 8. In 43 games, Karros hit .226/.308/.277 with 20 runs scored, nine RBI, one homer and four doubles. He didn’t have the power he flashed in the Minor Leagues, but provided a decent bat and solid glove at third base after Ryan McMahon was traded to the Yankees.
After playing all of 2024 with the High-A Spokane Indians (472 at-bats in 123 games), Karros started 2025 in Double-A Hartford. On July 18, after 55 games with the Yard Goats, he was promoted to the Triple-A Isotopes, where he played 16 games before getting the call.
He started his first eight games on his way to making 40 total starts, and played in 43 of the Rockies final 47 games of the season. It was a lot, even for a player who Colorado’s head athletic trainer and director of medical operations, Keith Dugger, calls “a tremendous young kid.”
“We played 16 days in a row. He’d never done that in his entire life, and he was gassed. [He said] ‘I thought the Big Leagues were just going to be, like normal baseball, you know?’ So we had to teach him,” Dugger said at Rockies Fest.
“Charlie [Blackmon], we had to teach him prior to that. So it’s really good when you have some of these older guys, like Charlie, who’s around some of these young prospects, so they can learn their kind of process that helps them throughout the day.”
Off to a strong start this spring training, hitting .417/.481/.750 with seven RBI, two homers, and seven runs scored in 24 at-bats in nine games, Karros is now primed to be the starting third baseman this season.
Jordan Beck, the Rockies No. 38 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, made his Big League debut on April 30, 2024. He only played in 55 games in his rookie campaign, largely due to suffering a fractured left hand. In 2025, he played in 148 games, which was the most for any Rockie. Beck led the team in stolen bases (19) and was second in hits (139), doubles (27) and runs scored (tied with Mickey Moniak at 62). He was third on the team with 16 homers.
At Rockeis Fest, Beck said the increased playing time made a difference.
“Seeing guys multiple times, you start playing against guys multiple times, you just start knowing, ‘alright, this is what it looks like.’ You can train as much as you want, but until you get into the box and see what it looks like, you really don’t know,” Beck said. “…I do believe that getting out there and playing and getting consistent at-bats is a huge deal.”
Beck is part of a group of 12 Rockies who made their debuts in 2024, which tied a team record for most at that time. Colorado immediately broke that record in 2025 as Karros was one of 13 Rockies to make their MLB debuts in 2025.
For a young, rebuilding team, the Rockies will likely see more debuts, as well as the biggest workloads young players have ever experienced in their lives. How the players hold up, mentally and physically, in that process will not only have a big impact on how 2026 plays out, but also on many individual careers and the Rockies long-term success as well.
A reader asks Patrick Saunders if he thinks the Rockies can win 27 more times in 2026 than they did in 2025. The Denver Post Rockies beat writer doesn’t think so, saying even 17 more would be a lot of progress. Patrick also shares thoughts on which young Rockie might have the biggest breakout season, what he hopes to see before he retires and more.
This is a cool feature on Troy Johnston’s focus on controlling what’s in his hands and letting go of what is not as he battles for a spot with the Rockies at first base. Coming from a successful 2023 season in the Marlins farm system, Johnson now focuses on his bat, glove, preparation and more, in addition to his presence in the clubhouse as a good teammate. The best part is when Johnston talks about his daughter.
A good feature on the ambitions of the Rockies promising young third baseman and his relationship with his father, Eric Karros. Very relatable and touching.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 19: Pablo Lopez #49 of the Minnesota Twins walks to the dugout after pitching against the Cleveland Guardians in the third inning of the game at Target Field on September 19, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
An immediate caveat to that title:
I am excited for Minnesota Twins baseball to return. It is my favorite professional sport and I welcome it back into my daily routine each spring like an old friend. I can’t wait to flip on the tube each night or get out to the ballpark(s) this summer. I already have flights booked for Washington, D.C. & Phoenix, AZ road trips.
All my family members would tell you that I am the eternal Twins optimist—just not at the moment. It has been a while since I’ve been as down on the competitive prospects of our hometown nine.
The Pablo Lopez day-one-of-spring-training injury was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me. All offseason, I had convinced myself this squad could compete with a strong starting rotation, speed on the bases, and a little luck from the young-ish bats. Alas, without the SP linchpin of that strategy, all seems lost.
Now I look at the rotation and see one solid bet—Joe Ryan—plus a collection of injury risks & unproven appendages (Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, David Festa, & Zebby Matthews).
Combine this with a relief corps we tabbed the Bullpen of Doom (TM) last year post-deadline. Maybe some of the roughly 100 arms (most lefty) brought in on small or minor league contracts will hit and rejuvenate the place beyond the LCF fence. But with the exception of Anthony Banda, major investments were not made in firemen.
Aside from genuine superstar Byron Buxton, the offense is absolutely loaded with guys harboring wild potential 2026 outcomes: Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Alan Roden, & Matt Wallner. At their best, all those players have looked like solid pieces of a nice offense. At their worst? All have been, at one time or another, disastrous at the plate or in the field. Only Josh Bell (1B/DH) & Victor Caratini (C) were brought in from outside the org to make an immediate impact, and neither name moves the needle all that much.
Maybe the “next wave” of prospects will ascend to The Show in ‘26: Emmanuel Rodriguez (OF), Walker Jenkins (OF), Kaelen Culpepper (SS), Connor Prielipp (LHP), or Kendry Rojas (LHP). But it is of course exceedingly rare for everything to perfectly meld together in one fell swoop and produce a contender.
I know that FanGraphs gives the ‘26 Twins a 11.4% chance to win the AL Central and a 23.7% chance to make the playoffs. But I tend to be Han Solo-ish with odds:
Ultimately, for me it comes down to the unlikelihood of the ‘26 Twins having everything come up aces: Buxton & Ryan health, complete bullpen transformation, positive regression on all batters, & prospects making an impact. The nature of MLB’s grind usually necessitates some things inevitably bust. This squad needs to hit on every 21.
The shred of hope I’m clinging to: fun seasons like ‘15, ‘19, & ‘22 (until Sept) came from little expectations. Perhaps the ‘26 gang can do something similar. They better bring their lucky deck of cards.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - AUGUST 18: Vinnie Pasquantino #9 of the Kansas City Royals is congratulated by Bobby Witt Jr. #7 after hitting a home run during the 3rd inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Kauffman Stadium on August 18, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) | Getty Images
At The Star, Jaylon Thompson writes that we shouldn’t sleep on Nick Mears, the other player acquired in the Angel Zerpa trade:
Mears has great analytical numbers. Per Statcast, he recorded a 33.5% chase rate — ranking in the 93rd percentile among qualified major-league pitchers. He also demonstrated good command, with just 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings.
Mears is effective with his fastball and slider. The heater averaged 95.4 mph while the slider— which registered a 38.4% whiff rate last year — is his put-away pitch.
Here’s the whole video. About 6 minutes in is the clip they released a couple of weeks ago where Vinnie tries to guess the type of pitch. He’s wrong almost every time. For being a student of hitting and a really enjoyable one to listen to, he’s awful at guessing them.
AT MLB.com, Brian Murphy and Thomas Harrigan make a (dubious) list of their Top 10 WBC moments (so far). Somehow an Aaron Judge groundout is on the list, but nothing from the Netherlands v Nicaragua list is on it. If you didn’t see it, NIC led NED 3-1 with 2 outs in the 9th when Ozzie Albies hit the first walkoff homer in WBC history.
We don’t have a lot of feature stories. Aside from the reliable Jaylon Thompson, you can probably tell I was reaching a bit. How about some listicles?
Looking to return to ace form – Cole Ragans, Royals – After a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts in 186 ⅓ innings in 2024, I threw Ragans all the way up to the top tier. He was ravaged by injury and poor fortune last season. He also struck out 98 in just 61 ⅔ innings.
Possibly an ace, possibly not – Kris Bubic, Royals – He looked every bit an ace last season with a 2.55 ERA and essentially a strikeout per inning. A shoulder injury ended his season in July, though. He only made 20 starts.
At MLB.com, Bradford Doolittle looks at what teams has busy winters and which had more boring ones and what it says about the team:
Tier 2: Middle of the pack teams –
Passive offseason with no major splashes
Description: We believe in our squad, based either on a longer-term track record or the progress of a young group that’s maturing. Despite a so-so season, we’re riding with these guys.
2026 teams: Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals
What it means: The most successful teams from this group have been clubs that have knocked on the door for several seasons before breaking through. This includes the 1979 Pirates, 1980 Phillies, 1985 Royals and, to a lesser extent, the 2010 Giants…
What was wrong with Ragans might be even more simple; he tweaked his groin early in 2025, then strained his rotator cuff in his first start after coming back from the first injury. That shoulder issue kept him out until mid-September, leaving the Royals’ presumptive no. 1 starter with a highly disjointed and injury-plagued record. Assuming his shoulder and groin remain in working order, he should be just fine in 2026.
Do you have any concerns about the outfield given the lackluster performances of Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins this Spring? -Hokius
…But, honestly, to have watched a team have the worst outfield offense in baseball last year and then not bring in someone who was more of a sure thing had me concerned the whole time. The reality is what I wrote a few weeks ago. The outfield being anything more than fine depends on Jac Caglianone a whole lot more than it depends on any of their acquisitions. It’s both a scary spot to be because relying on young players is risky and relying on a guy who looked so bad last year is scary, but also an exciting spot because of the upside Caglianone has. So yes, I’d say concerns is the right word. I’m not exactly worried, but I have concerns.
Hokius, you say? Most of the questions are about the outfield. Then again, that could be the title of any Royals offensive preview this year: “Most of the questions are about the outfield”.
With Noah Cameron’s struggles this spring (7.2 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO), there’s an opportunity for Bergert to push his way into a conversation for the fifth starter role. There’s obviously still some work to do on his part and if Cameron gets right over his next couple of outings it’s a moot competition anyway, but there’s a scenario that’s not so far-fetched where a battle for that final rotation start gets hot.
Royals Data Dugout with a new hitting model: Lumber+
Lumber+ is my new Statcast-based hitter skill model that’s free to use — just click the image above. Designed to measure talent rather than production, it’s scaled so 100 = league average and each standard deviation roughly = 5.
…The big question you might (or should) ask — does it work and does it mean anything?
The answer: Yes, or at least I believe so. In backtesting 2023 and 2024 data, Lumber+ proved to be quite predictive of next-season success, using wRC+ as the end target.
Pasquantino has traditionally been known to be a slow starter at the plate. Last season, he hit .177 with a 49 wRC+ in 124 plate appearances in March/April, according to Fangraphs splits. That said, he was fine for the remainder of the year, as evidenced by his 116 wRC+ in 2025. It was the same story in 2024 to a degree. His 96 wRC+ in March/April was the worst monthly wRC+ of the 2024 season (his overall wRC+ was 109).
Perhaps the World Baseball Classic has allowed Pasquantino to knock off the rust earlier in the spring (he has more at-bats to go in the knockout round, as they play Puerto Rico in the first round). Hopefully, with this experience and historic surge at the plate, he will be more ready to produce in the first month of play for the Royals, which would be atypical of his career norms.
Unfortunately, I’m punting on OT this week. I looked at the calendar and realized I’m just going to be watching basketball for 12 hours next Thursday. My current OT was still only about half done and there’s going to be little time to work on a new one next week so it’s just getting delayed. Here’s our potential schedule for the next few weeks:
2026.03.20 Movie reviews
2026.03.27 Opening Day Recap around MLB
2026.04.03 Asian Baseball I: CPBL
2026.04.10 Asian Baseball I: KBO
2026.04.17 Asian Baseball I: NPB
2026.04.24 (working on a couple of ideas – I’ve been wanting to do an art-themed one for a while, but it’s nowhere near finished)
