The Pirates are a wellspring of talented young pitchers right now, which could make them an impactful team at this MLB Trade Deadline, especially in what, at least initially, tracks as a seller’s market for starting pitchers.
The Buccos’ great need for offense – they started play Monday averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB (3.33) – could motivate them to make an especially-enticing hurler available. Mitch Keller is the kind of controllable rotation asset that fuels GM fever dreams this time of year, flush with talent and cost certainty. Maybe even enough to make some contender dip into their pool of young, ready (or nearly-ready) hitters.
Could it be the Mets? Should it be? Let’s explore the pros and cons of David Stearns potentially trading for Keller, a 29-year-old righty.
PROS
If these were still the days when a pitcher’s win-loss record was one of his most meaningful stats, Keller’s 3-10 mark, even for the 39-61 Pirates, might offer pause. Thankfully, we have moved beyond that Jurassic Age of pitching and are more enlightened.
Keller has been terrific this season, despite that record. The Pirates have scored a total of 37 runs in the 17 games that Keller has either lost or recorded a no-decision. He’s got a 3.48 ERA, which would be his career-best over a full season, and is sporting career-bests in numbers such as WHIP, homers-per-nine and walks-per-nine, too.
His strikeout percentage would be his lowest for a full year, but, whatever. It seems to be working. Plus, he’s proven he can get K's – his 210 strikeouts in 2023 established a record for a Pittsburgh righty, though it seems a foregone conclusion that Paul Skenes will one day shatter that mark.
Keller’s three most-used pitches are a 94 mph-ish four-seamer, a low-80s sweeper and an 87 mph slider. He also uses a sinker, and Statcast gives him credit for the 10th-best fastball run value, ahead of even Jacob deGrom. Keller’s sweeper is tied for fifth-best by the same metric. Opponents have a .181 batting average on the sweeper.
The Mets, you may have heard, are having trouble getting length out of their starters. Keller has pitched into at least the sixth inning in 13 consecutive starts and he’s gotten at least 18 outs in 11 of those. Over his last four starts, he has a 1.44 ERA.
For whatever it’s worth, he’s looked great against the Mets, too, notching a 2.19 ERA over two starts. Juan Soto and Brett Baty have homered off him, but Met hitters batted .213 against him with a .628 OPS.
And there’s cost certainty, which club number-crunchers will appreciate. Keller is signed for three more seasons after this one for a total of $55.7 million. Hold that up against whatever he’d make on the free agent market (more, obvs) and he’s even more attractive.
CONS
None.
We kid, of course.
As mentioned, he’s not striking out batters at the same rate.
Since 2021, only 12 pitchers have made more starts than Keller and only 15 have thrown more innings. If you want to ding him for wear-and-tear, well, every pitcher accrues it. We say that’s more representative of his durability than anything.
Cost, of course, could be a con, just because he’s so good and so controllable. The Pirates will be right to ask for the moon and stars, a Jett (Williams, one of the Mets’ top prospects), too. And much more young talent beyond Williams. Some might say the Mets should save prospect capital to deal for a hitter instead.
Whatever happens, if they’re in on Keller, they’d better be prepared for a prospect-bidding battle, especially with the Yankees and Cubs among the teams connected to the righty via media reports.
All those teams should get at least two more chances to see Keller work, assuming he makes it to the deadline. He’s slated to start Tuesday night against the visiting Tigers.
VERDICT
If the Mets really believe this current team has a chance to be special, despite how ordinary (and worse) they’ve looked recently, this is the kind of deal they should make. Keller makes them better now and later, and his contract is reasonable for a durable starter.
Could the Mets help sort their current third base situation by using one of those young big leaguers as part of a package to pry Keller from Pittsburgh? The cost will hurt, but the Mets could use some rotation certainty, especially after all the injuries their starters have endured this season.