Can the Red Sox make ABS challenges work for them?

BOSTON, MA - MAY 12: A general view of the video board during an ABS challenge in the fourth inning during the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Were you excited about the ABS challenge system at the start of the season? Did you think Craig Breslow’s “pitching and defense team” would be taking advantage of a new tool to help them reach the playoffs again? Well, so far challenges aren’t really a Red Sox thing. Whether this was an Alex Cora decision to more or less ignore the new powers of gamesmanship, or whether the Sox simply don’t have a collection of players who are comfortable tapping their helmets is unknown, but the results speak for themselves.

Boston has called for just 28 batter challenges through May 12th, the second lowers total in baseball. The Miami Marlins are at 28 and the San Diego Padres sit at just 26. Meanwhile the Minnesota Twins (56), Los Angeles Angels (49), Baltimore Orioles (48), and Cleveland Guardians (48) lead the pack with the most challenges by their hitters. Granted, these are not the most successful teams at challenges. That would be the Athletics, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, and Houston Astros. Each has won between 56% and 60% of their hitter challenges. And of the high-challenge teams, only the Guardians are above .500 on the year. Boston hitters have won 46% of their challenges, same as the Yankees who have challenged 46 times. The two teams are tied for the 14th highest winning rate by their hitters. Although 19 teams have won at least 45% of their challenges. And 21 teams have won 44%.

The disparity begins to show when you look at the individual hitters.

Ceddanne Rafaela is the leader of the Boston offense in helmet tapping. For better or worse he’s been one of the bright spots in the offense. And he’s challenged 7 times. Winning just 2. He shares that rate of success with Steven Kwan, Willy Adames, and Jonathan Aranda. Only Gunnar Henderson, with just 1 win, is worse among those with at least 7 challenge attempts.

If you look at Rafaela’s feel of the strike zone, it’s all over the map. The two blue circles were overturned. The 5 black circles were confirmed. Even here there’s some tough luck on the two in the corner on the lower left and the biter on the right that is essentially on the line of the strike zone. But that circle well inside the box? You might remember it from Sunday. It was called and obviously confirmed as a strike. It probably looked low.

It’s tough. The catcher lifts the ball really quick and it looks like his glove moved a long way as he does it.

Masataka Yoshida (1) and Trevor Story (2) have won all their challenges.

Roman Anthony is 2-for-3.

Willson Contreras (6) and Caleb Durbin (4) have won 50% of theirs.

Wilyer Abreu in the opposite of Roman at 1-for-3.

Let’s look at Masa’s win for comparison. He’s seen a lot of pitches this year and only one made him tap the helmet.

What’s the saying, juuuuust a bit outside?

Obviously some of this is going to be ingrained in a player. Some is going to be teachable. For the Red Sox, a team needing an offensive boost, maybe it’s time to figure out a more unified strategy. We know Roman and Masa know the zone. We know Willson is a veteran and a former catcher. He may know some tricks to gain a tiny edge here and there. But if the Sox could get back another pitch or two per week, it might be nice. I’m not advocating wasting challenges but if the game is ending and you have both remaining in the 9th inning maybe a little live practice…

Giants vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The reeling Los Angeles Dodgers take a four-game losing streak into Wednesday night’s home game against the San Francisco Giants.

Superstar Shohei Ohtani takes the mound, and there’s no better pitcher to turn the tide.

My Giants vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13, see Shohei leading his team back in the win column with a low-scoring victory.

Who will win Giants vs Dodgers today: Dodgers moneyline (-238)

Losing streak or not, the Los Angeles Dodgers are still the superior team and will have a starting pitching advantage with Shohei Ohtani (0.97 ERA) on the bump.

He’s on a shortlist for the NL Cy Young, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, and barrel rate.

While Robbie Ray’s 2.76 ERA looks nice, it’s undercut by his predictive metrics (4.15 xERA, 4.52 FIP).

His mortality shows on the road (4.15 ERA), and the bullpen behind him has a league-worst 5.63 SIERA over the last 15 days.

Covers COVERS INTEL:Shohei Ohtani’s 114 Stuff+ ranks seventh among starting pitchers. He uses these lethal offerings to generate strikeouts (29%) and groundballs (53.8%) — the two most favorable outcomes for a pitcher.

Giants vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-110)

Low-scoring games tend to follow when these two hurlers take the mound. San Francisco is 2-6 O/U in Ray’s eight starts, while L.A. is 1-5 O/U in Ohtani’s last six.

The Boys in Blue have been slumping at the dish, plating three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games. With Ohtani out of the lineup, they’re missing their best hitter.

The San Francisco Giants have bad numbers against right-handed pitchers (89 wRC+ and .296 wOBA) and will face the most effective one to date in 2026.

JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 11-12, -4.84 units
  • Over/Under bets: 16-8, +7.64 units

Giants vs Dodgers odds

  • Moneyline: San Francisco +206 | Los Angeles -229
  • Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-103) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+124) | Under 8.5 (-137)

Giants vs Dodgers trend

The Giants have hit the Under in four of their last five road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Giants vs Dodgers and game info

LocationDodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
DateWednesday, May 13, 2026
First pitch10:10 p.m. ET
TVMLB Network
Giants starting pitcherRobbie Ray
(3-4, 2.76 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcherShohei Ohtani
(2-2, 0.97 ERA)

Giants vs Dodgers latest injuries

Giants vs Dodgers weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

A Tale Of Two Catchers

May 2, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Brandon Valenzuela (59) runs the bases on his three run home run against the Minnesota Twins in the eighth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

When the Jays are playing the way they are, I find it hard to come up with things to write about. Or perhaps I’m just depressed about the state of the team.

At the quarter mark of the season, the surprise player (well, surprise in a good way) has to be Brandon Valenzuela. He’s only played in 24 games (and five of those he didn’t start). He’s had 69 plate appearances, and a batting average of .226, 4 home runs and an OPS +103.

Defensively, he’s thrown out 35.0% of the guys who have tried to steal off him. There are 3 errors, but no one is perfect.

Jays pitchers have a 3.77 ERA against him and a 4.52 ERA against Tyler Heineman. It is a small sample size, so there is likely some noise, but it appears the pitchers like throwing to him.

By bWAR, he’s tied for the best among Jays batters. Obviously, this is all a very small sample, and there is little in his history that suggests he’d be more than a glove-first backup catcher.

If he continues like this, the Jays will have to keep him as the backup to Alejandro Kirk when the time comes.


At the opposite end of the bWAR scale (and surprise scale), we have Tyler Heineman, at -0.9. Tyler was terrific last year, 1.9 bWAR in 61 games. But that was very much an outlier in his career. Other than 2025, his bWAR ranged from +0.3 to -0.1 (pretty normal for a backup catcher).

What’s going on this year?

He’s hitting .158/.200/.158 in 63 PA (again, a very small sample size). And it does seem like he’s lost confidence at the plate.

Defensively, he’s thrown out 20% of base stealers (league average 23.5 %), so considering the sample size, right around average (last year he threw out 30.2% of base stealers). And, as noted above, our pitchers haven’t fared as well throwing to him.

Tyler is out of options, though I don’t know if anybody would pick him up off waivers. Valenzuela has 3 option years left.

Alejandro Kirk is still weeks away from rejoining the Jays, so lots can happen between now and then, but Valenzuela is looking a lot like the backup catcher Heineman was last year.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles: Max Fried vs. Kyle Bradish

New York Yankees pitcher Max Fried (54) throws during the first inning of their game against the Milwaukee Brewers Friday, May 8, 2026 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After that skid in Milwaukee, the Yankees have the chance to get right back on the horse today with a series win over Baltimore. First pitch time has been moved up from 6:35pm to 1:05pm this afternoon with fears of some nasty weather tonight, but we’re all hoping for some nasty pitching from Max Fried in the meantime.

Just like last season, Fried is putting together an excellent campaign without a whole lot of fanfare — in 2026’s case at least partially because of how damn good Cam Schlittler has been. Still, Fried comfortably sits top 10 in baseball in multiple stats including xERA and home run rate, and if it weren’t for some standout performances last night would be top ten in FIP as well, with him currently ranked 11th in the stat. He did get touched up over the weekend against the Brewers for five earned runs across six innings, so a bounceback start would be welcome.

Kyle Bradish goes for the O’s, and while he’s struggled to get much going this year, he’s handled the Yankees well in his career. This will be his ninth start against the Bombers, managing a 3.92 ERA against them in his previous eight. That said, a ghastly 12-percent walk rate should have the Yankees focusing on one part of the zone, and willing to take until Bradish goes there.

Spencer Jones finds himself back in the lineup today, in right field while Aaron Judge DHs. J.C. Escarra catches on the day game after the night game, but the biggest change is perhaps Anthony Volpe getting his first start since being recalled from Triple-A. The former top prospect sat out last night’s win but will bat eighth and man shortstop at Camden Yards today.

How to watch

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Baltimore, MD

First pitch: 1:05 pm ET

TV broadcast: Amazon Prime Video, MASN

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY), 98 Rock 97.9 FM, WBAL 1090 AM (BA. L) n

Online stream: MLB.tv (out-of-market only)

For updates, follow us on BlueSkyTwitter, and Instagram, and like us on Facebook.

Join the conversation!

Sign up for a user account and get:

  • Fewer ads
  • Create community posts
  • Comment on articles, community posts
  • Rec comments, community posts
  • New, improved notifications system!

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Wednesday, May 13

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It’s rebound day after a couple of donuts last night, and Aaron Judge drawing walks instead of swinging for the fences is a tough way to lose a home run ticket. Having several fly-ball pitchers working in windy conditions today creates plenty to like across the MLB player prop market.

Lefty vs. lefty isn't always a good place to look for a dinger, but it is today with Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz stepping in against Jose Quintana.

Add him to the card featuring Hunter Goodman and Brady House, and we've got a home run stew going.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 13.

  • UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Rockies Hunter Goodman +405
Nationals Brady House+620
Pirates Oneil Cruz+425
💲Today's HR parlay+15650

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+405)

I love this game for runs. We’ve got double-digit winds blowing out, two fly-ball starters, and a pair of beat-up bullpens. Hunter Goodman has the best home run upside in this matchup and has already taken Mitch Keller deep in a small three-at-bat sample.

Goodman leads the Colorado Rockies in swing speed and BlastContact% over the last two weeks while also posting the second-best IdealAttackAngle%. I like him in this spot more than Mickey Moniak at the shorter price.

Keller hasn’t allowed many home runs, but he’s been a bit fortunate and isn’t a true ground-ball pitcher. He’ll also eventually hand things off to a bullpen carrying a 6.82 ERA over the last two weeks. Goodman, a lucky pitcher, a bad bullpen, and strong winds are all checking boxes for our MLB picks today.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: Brady House (+620)

Brady House might not be a household name yet, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Washington Nationals lineup from the right side and gets a strong matchup today against lefty Nick Lodolo, who was roughed up in his first start back last week while continuing to see his fly-ball rate climb.

If Lodolo can’t keep the ball on the ground, it could be a short outing with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs last week and threw only 78 pitches.

That could mean plenty of innings for a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks at 8.77, along with a league-worst 2.10 HR/9.

House went yard yesterday and has four extra-base hits over his last six games with great BlastCon% numbers. 

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Reds.TV

Home run pick: Oneil Cruz (+425)

I’m getting a great price on one of the best home run hitters in the game with Oneil Cruz facing fellow lefty Jose Quintana, which is likely why this number is sitting north of +400. Cruz has crushed left-handed pitching this season with a .985 OPS and four home runs.

Quintana has actually allowed more damage to left-handed hitters this year, and with his short leash at roughly 81 pitches per start, a weak Rockies bullpen is likely going to be asked to keep the ball in the park with 13-mph winds blowing out to center field. I’ll take the lefty-on-lefty discount.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 13-69, -1.94 units

Today’s HR parlay

Rockies Hunter GoodmanBet Now
+15650
Nationals Brady House
Pirates Oneil Cruz

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Wednesday afternoon Orioles game thread: vs. Yankees, 1:05 ET

BRONX, NY - MAY 02: Kyle Bradish #38 of the Baltimore Orioles warms up prior to the game against the New York Yankees on May 2, 2026 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

After a four-game sweep in the Bronx last week, I was in no hurry to see the Orioles face the Yankees again. This time it’s gone better, although far from great. In Game 1, the O’s snatched a late win, with Coby Mayo going yard after his team had been no-hit for six innings. But in Game 2, Trevor Rogers looked homer-prone, and the team fell, 6-2.

The Orioles rotation is certainly struggling of late. Their 5.19 ERA is third-worst in the game. Now it’s Max Fried and Kyle Bradish in the rubber match, two pitchers whom you’d once squint and call aces. Bradish, because he had an out-of-nowhere 2023 campaign, finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. Fried, because he’s often treated as just ace-adjacent—on the other hand, he’s certainly got ace-type numbers today.

Bradish (1-5, 4.83 ERA) could use a bounceback. He hasn’t given up fewer than three runs in any of his last three starts. Overall, this season has shown Bradish trying to shake off some post-Tommy John rust. At the time same time, he’s showing some signs of being back to normal. His last time out, against the Athletics, he gave up three runs but did go long, however.

Whether Max Fried (4-2, 2.91 ERA) is an ace or not, he’s certainly pitching like one right now. His BaseballSavant page is a sea of red (that’s good): pitching run value, expected ERA, fastball run value, offspeed run value. His curveball has been his greatest weapon this year, but he leans on his cutter more. Last week, Baltimore got their runners aboard (six hits, three walks), but only pushed across three earned runs over 5.1 innings. On May 8, he allowed five runs to the Brewers. So maybe the “ace” is going through a rough patch. And maybe the O’s can take advantage.

Orioles lineup

  1. Taylor Ward LF
  2. Gunnar Henderson SS
  3. Adley Rutschman C
  4. Pete Alonso 1B
  5. Tyler O’Neill RF
  6. Leody Taveras CF
  7. Coby Mayo DH
  8. Weston Wilson 3B
  9. Blaze Alexander 2B

Yankees lineup

  1. Trent Grisham CF
  2. Ben Rice 1B
  3. Aaron Judge DH
  4. Cody Bellinger LF
  5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  6. Ryan McMahon 3B
  7. Spencer Jones RF
  8. Anthony Volpe SS
  9. J.C. Escarra C

Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Today's MLB Game

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Toronto Blue Jays slugger George Springer is heating up at the plate, and a matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax has me believing that his hot play continues tonight. 

Read on to see why with my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB Picks on Wednesday, May 13.

Rays vs Blue Jays predictions

Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: George Springer Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

We’re starting to see signs of last year’s George Springer coming to life in 2026.

The Toronto Blue Jays DH has five hits in his last four games, averaging 1.5 bases per game in that stretch, going Over the number in two of his last three outings. 

If he’s getting back to his 2025 self, that would make today a plus-pitching matchup with Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Griffin Jax on the mound.

Jax throws the sweeper to righties more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Last season, Springer had a .343 average against the sweeper.

Additionally, Springer is 3-for-5 against Jax in his career with a pair of home runs.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Jax ranks in the 26th percentile with a 4.87 xERA this season.

Rays vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Ernie Clement seems to be heating up again with eight hits in his last four games. It’s also a good matchup with a sweeper-tosser on the mound, as Clement owns a .385 against the pitch. He’s also 1-for-4 against Jax lifetime. 

For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll add Jax to go Under 3.5 strikeouts. 

Firstly, the Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Additionally, Jax isn’t stretched out enough to go deep, topping out at 59 pitches this season. Fewer batters means less opportunity for Ks.

Rays vs Blue Jays SGP

  • George Springer Over 1.5 total bases
  • Ernie Clement Over 0.5 hits
  • Griffin Jax Under 3.5 strikeouts
img loading="lazy" width="100%" height="null" src="https://img.covers.com/editorial/2026/jaysmlcbp.jpg" alt="Canada’s best price for Jays"
Get the best Jays ML odds at BET99 — every game.

Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: George Springer (+425)

I’m making this a half-unit wager

Jax owns a 57.7% ground-ball rate, ranking in the 95th percentile. This has led to just two homers against him this season. 

However, Jax does give up hard contact, ranking in the 16th percentile in baseball. So if Someone gets lift on the ball, it could find the seats. 

The one player in the Jays lineup who has done this in the past is Springer. He has two home runs in just five career at-bats against Jax.

Additionally, the Rays bullpen boasts the eighth-highest HR/9 in MLB.

2026 Transparency record
  • Best bets: 17-24, -3.6 units
  • SGPs: 8-33, +0.7 units
  • HR picks: 8-33, +6.65 units

Rays vs Blue Jays odds

  • Moneyline: Rays +110 | Blue Jays -130
  • Run line: Rays +1.5 (-160) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Rays vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Rays vs Blue Jays and game info

LocationRogers Centre, Toronto, ON
DateWednesday, May 13, 2026
First pitch7:07 p.m. ET
TVRays.TV, Sportsnet 1
Rays starting pitcherGriffin Jax
(1-2, 5.00 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcherDylan Cease
(3-1, 2.58 ERA)

Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Rays vs Blue Jays weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Phillies vs. Red Sox prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 13

The Phillies (20-22) and the Red Sox (17-24) take the field for Game 2 of their three-game series tonight at Fenway Park in Beantown.

 

Last night, Zach Wheeler was exceptional allowing just one run on six hits over 7.1 innings as the Phillies edged the Red Sox 2–1. Kyle Schwarber went yard for the fifth straight game. Bryson Stott added an RBI double, while Boston’s lone run came on a Ceddanne Rafaela RBI single in the seventh. Schwarber now leads MLB with 17 homers. As a team, the Red Sox have hit just 29 home runs.

 

Andrew Painter gets the ball tonight for the Phillies. The rookie is looking to bounce back from his last outing in which he gave up eight runs over just 3.2 innings. Sonny Gray takes the mound for Boston looking to build on his last start in which he shut out the Tigers allowing just four hits over five innings. The veteran has made six starts this season and allowed more than three earned runs one time.

 

The Sox have lost two straight and are 5-5 in the last ten games. The Phillies have won three in a row and are 7-3 in their last ten as they climb back towards .500 for the season.

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game Details and How to Watch: Red Sox vs. Phillies

  • Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026
  • Time: 6:45PM EST
  • Site: Fenway Park
  • City: Boston, MA
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia, NESN

 

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

 

The Latest Odds: Red Sox vs. Phillies

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Boston Red Sox (-131), Philadelphia Phillies (+109)
  • Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+153), Phillies +1.5 (-186)
  • Total: 9.0 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers: Red Sox vs. Phillies

Pitching matchup for May 13:

  • Red Sox: Sonny Gray
    Season Totals: 28.0 IP, 3-1, 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 15K, 7 BB
  • Phillies: Andrew Painter
    Season Totals: 32.2 IP, 1-4, 6.89 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 30K, 12 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Red Sox vs. Phillies

  • Kyle Schwarber has homered in 5 straight games (6 HRs)
  • Brandon Marsh is riding a 13-game hitting streak (21-46) and has hit safely in 18 of his last 19 games (30-69)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela is 5-16 over his last 4 games and 11-39 in May
  • Trevor Story was 1-3 last night and is 3-19 over his last 5 games

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Red Sox vs. Phillies

  • The Phillies are 8-10 on the road this season
  • The Red Sox are 7-13 at home this season
  • The Phillies are an MLB-worst 11-31 on the Run Line this season
  • The Red Sox are 15-26 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 19 times in games involving the Red Sox this season (19-21-1)
  • The OVER has cashed 22 times in Phillies’ games this season (22-18-2)

 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions: Red Sox vs. Phillies

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

 

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Red Sox and the Phillies:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total OVER 9.0 runs

 

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)

Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: A.J. Ewing arrives in style, Travis Bazzana runs wild

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Last week, I highlighted Travis Bazzana and Estury Ruiz as stolen base targets and they combined to steal nine over the last seven days.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

camineroranks.jpg
The Rays own the best record in the American League.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

Player
SB
CS
Nasim Nuñez
17
2
José Ramírez
16
2
Oneil Cruz
15
2
Chandler Simpson
15
4
José Caballero
13
5
Bobby Witt Jr.
12
2
Jakob Marsee
12
3
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
11
3
Randy Arozarena
10
2
Fernando Tatis Jr.
10
4

Just look at Nasim Nuñez go! He’s a true throwback as an elite defender and base runner without being able to hit a lick. If he sticks in the Nationals’ starting lineup, expect him to be on this leaderboard all season long.

While the stolen bases are nice, we’d like for José Ramírez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. to pick it up at the plate.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Player
SB
CS
Travis Bazzana
5
0
Oneil Cruz
4
0
Esteury Ruiz
4
0
Brayan Rocchio
4
1
José Ramírez
3
1
Jarren Duran
3
0
Nasim Nuñez
3
0
Konnor Griffin
2
0
Sam Antonacci
2
0
Josh Naylor
2
0
14 Others Tied
2
-

Hello Travis Bazzana. As predicted, the hit tool (.195 batting average) hasn’t come around yet at the major level while the on-base skills (.400 on-base percentage, 21.8% walk rate) have in a big way. He’s converted his trips to first base with enough stolen bases to give tremendous fantasy value.

Even in a part-time role, Esteury Ruiz can provide fantasy value with his legs.

Often overlooked, Brayan Rocchio has been very productive this season with three home runs, seven stolen bases, and a .738 OPS.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Player
SB
CS
Ronald Acuña Jr.
7
4
Zach Neto
7
4
Geraldo Perdomo
6
3
Victor Scott II
6
3
Austin Martin
5
4
Otto Lopez
5
3
Richie Palacios
4
4
Maikel Garcia
4
3
Xavier Edwards
4
1
Trea Turner
4
1
Julio Rodríguez
3
2
Ceddanne Rafaela
2
3
Daylen Lile
2
3
Isaac Collins
2
3
Cole Young
2
2
Jose Altuve
1
2
Willy Adames
1
2
Juan Soto
1
1
Ozzie Albies
0
3

While still nearly on pace for a 30-30 season, Zach Neto has been inefficient on the base paths while watching his strikeout rate balloon and batting average sink to scary levels.

Ozzie Albies has attempted just one stolen base in the past month and appears to be grounded due to his lack of success there.

Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

The Minnesota Twins led the way with 11 bases stolen against them over the past week and didn’t catch a single runner.

A majority of those came in both their weekend series against the Guardians while Ryan Jeffers was the behind the plate.

For all of his success as a hitter this season (six home runs, .948 OPS, and 5th-ranked catcher in the FanGraphs Player Rater), Jeffers has never been a stout defender. His value there is anchored by being a good framer without throwing out many base stealers. Last season, his 19% caught stealing rate was 11th-lowest among all catchers with at least 500 innings caught and his struggles there to begin the season don’t breed much confidence.

Otherwise, there was no discernible trend among Twins’ starting pitchers. Relievers Anthony Banda and Luis Garcia were on the mound for most of these stolen bases, but it’s difficult to target them. Especially when the aforementioned Travis Bazzana manufactured his own run against Banda and Jeffers on Friday.

This weekend, the Twins are matched up with the speedy Brewers. So, check out David Hamilton, Joey Ortiz, Garrett Mitchell, or Sal Frelick if you need cheap speed.

Past them, the Nationals surrendered 10 stolen bases over the past week.

A huge portion of those came in one disastrous eighth inning on Sunday, Gus Varland imploded against the Marlins as they successfully stole four bases on him and catcher Drew Millas en route to a three-run inning which gave them the lead.

Varland had been mostly stout in relief until that point and the Marlins didn’t exactly hit him around either, scoring those three runs on two walks and two singles. They simply executed two double steals.

Millas and fellow catching mate Keibert Ruiz are both generally poor against base stealers as well. The Nationals face off with the Orioles and Mets in their next two series, so check out Carson Benge, the newly promoted A.J. Ewing, Marcus Semien, or Leody Taveras if you’re really desperate for stolen bases.

A Necessary Jolt

I just mentioned Mets prospect A.J. Ewing. He was promoted yesterday to give the team a jolt and did in a major way with three walks, a stolen base, a triple, two runs scored, and two RBI in his major league debut on Tuesday night.

While the bat may be a bit in question for the 21-year-old rookie (who was in High-A one year ago), his speed and patience are not. He was chomping at the bit for that first stolen base too, going before Tigers’ reliever Burch Smith had even started his movement to the plate.

Plus, that patience and pitch selection have been a carrying tool for him as a minor leaguer. He stole 70 bases last season across three levels – yes you read that right, 70 – and will have a big, flashing green light whenever he reaches base, which could be often.

Dodgers aren’t cashing in scoring chances, and aren’t creating them either

Los Angeles, CA, United States - May 12, 2026:Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy (13) reacts after striking out during the eighth inning of an MLB game against the San Francisco Giants at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 in Los Angeles, CA. (Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers swept the New York Mets four weeks ago, their second sweep in four series at Dodger Stadium at that point, running their record to 14-4. It feels like a lifetime ago now.

The Dodgers also won their next game, the series opener at Coors Field for a 15-4 record. They did not win that series. They’ve lost the first two games of this four-game series against the San Francisco Giants, which means they won’t win this series either. The Dodgers have only won two of their last eight series, going just 9-14 since that hot start, including six losses in their last seven home games.

After leaving a four-game series at Coors Field on April 20, the Dodgers have scored only 3.75 runs per game, hitting just .235/.322/.364 with a 96 wRC+, ranking 24th in MLB in slugging percentage during that time and tied for 20th with 18 home runs in 20 games, after hitting 42 home runs in their first 22 games.

“When you’re not really slugging, or you’re not throwing out double-digit hits a night, then the opportunities are few and far between. Our margins on the offensive side are more finite,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday. “You get a guy to second base to lead off an inning, you’ve got to get them to third, and then you try to get that point across. We’re just not doing that, on top of not slugging and not creating a bunch of traffic and stress.”

Two losses this week against the Giants have been different, at least offensively. On Monday night the Dodgers had 10 hits and plenty of chances, with just two hits in 10 at-bats with runners in scoring position. On Tuesday, they totaled only four hits against Adrian Houser and company, and did not collect a hit in their all of three at-bats with runners in scoring position. All three of those at-bats were with the bases loaded, in the first and eighth innings, plus a sacrifice fly that brought home the Dodgers’ first run.

“It’s on us to get those runs in when we can, because it’s not easy with the pitching you’re facing in this league,” right fielder Kyle Tucker said. “Whenever you have opportunities in this league, you have to capitalize on it.”

The Dodgers with the bases loaded this season have eight hits, including a home run and double in 39 at-bats with the bases loaded, plus two walks and five sacrifice flies, hitting .205/.217/.308 with a 39 wRC+ that ranks 28th out of 30 teams.

In the Dodgers’ last 13 games, they’ve scored three or fewer runs 10 times, going 4-9 with a pair of four-game losing streaks. With runners in scoring position over those last two weeks, they are hitting .242/.345/.326 with a 92 wRC+ that ranks 20th in the majors, and they are also tied for 20th in total plate appearances in those situations, at just 8.77 per game.

“When you don’t get a whole lot of opportunities, and you don’t cash in on the couple that you do get, you don’t score a lot of runs,” Roberts said.

Padres vs Brewers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Milwaukee Brewers have now won five in a row after taking the series opener against the visiting Padres.

It promises to be a pitchers’ duel for game two, but Milwaukee has its ace on the mound in Jacob Misiorowski.

It’s tough to imagine San Diego finding answers to its batting slump against the Miz. So, my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks call for a Brewers victory on Wednesday, May 13.

Who will win Padres vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-148)

The Milwaukee Brewers’ streak has an impressive level of difficulty. Their opponents in the five wins were all playoff teams with a combined 129-82, .611 record. For the season, Milwaukee has beaten winning teams two thirds of the time.

The San Diego Padres continue to flounder at the plate. They struck out 13 times and managed just eight hits on Tuesday, against a previously winless rookie starter, and their four-run output was above average for the recent stretch.

San Diego has been shut out as many times in the last 10 games as it has reached five runs (two each). Now they face Jacob Misiorowski.

Covers COVERS INTEL:The Brewers pitchers have stepped up their performance against winning teams. They’re more than one run better (2.64 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, .198 average against) compared to losing ones (3.81, 1.313, 9.0, .239).

Padres vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-133)

The last thing a slumping offense needs is to face MLB’s strikeout leader. Misiorowski has fanned 70 in 44 innings including 19 in the last 11.1.

He threw the seven fastest four-seamers in the pitch-tracking era in his last start and is 99th percentile in velocity and strikeout rate, 98th in swing-and-miss. And his breaking stuff ranks even higher than his fastball.

The Padres start Michael King, who has a 2.76 ERA and allows just 5.5 hits per nine innings. He hasn’t been as dominant as The Miz, but his stuff is in the top 12% of baseball, and his exit velocity and hard hit percentage allowed are both in the top 20%.  

Shawn Krest's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 12-16 -3.26 units
  • Over/Under bets: 16-16 -1.08 units

Padres vs Brewers odds

  • Moneyline: San Diego +138 | Milwaukee -144
  • Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-170) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+163)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+127) | Under 7.5 (-133)

Padres vs Brewers trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.

How to watch Padres vs Brewers and game info

LocationAmerican Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
DateWednesday, May 13, 2026
First pitch7:40 p.m. ET
TVPadres.TV, Brewers.TV
Padres starting pitcherMichael King
(3-2, 2.76 ERA)
Brewers starting pitcherJacob Misiorowski
(3-2, 2.45 ERA)

Padres vs Brewers latest injuries

Padres vs Brewers weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

One Stat To Tell the Story of Each Blue Jays Hitter’s Season

May 12, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Daulton Varsho (5) catches a fly ball for an out against the Tampa Bay Rays during the tenth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

We’re a little more than a quarter of the way into what’s shaping up to be a profoundly disappointing season for the Blue Jays. I want to dig a bit into each of the guys who’s on the roster and has received significant playing time this year to figure out what’s going on and whether we might hope for improvement the rest of the way. To keep things simple, as I’ve done the last couple of years I’m going to pick one number that I think represents the arc of each player’s season to date. Today, the hitters.

  • Tyler Heineman: 44.9% chase rate. Heineman is always an aggressive hitters, swinging about 52% of the time for his career. That makes sense, as a pretty good knack for contact is his only real offensive asset. This season, though, he’s getting over-aggressive out of the zone without swinging more inside it, and it’s cratered his production.
  • Brandon Valenzuela: 3 Framing Runs Above Average. The Jays acquired Valenzuela to be their long term backup catcher because they’re believers in his glove. He’s impressed at the plate so far as well, but that will likely regress. The defense is shaping up to be everything promised, though, with top tier framing grades, an easy plus arm, and good blocking to boot.
  • Vladimir Guerrero jr: 9.0% barrel rate. After the pitching staff, Vlad might be the biggest disappointment so far. The reason is that he’s just not squaring it up. His barrel rate is his worst since 2020, hindered by a lower launch angle and fewer hard hit balls. His bat speed looks normal, and his max exit velocity is in line, so he seems healthy, but he’ll need to make an adjustment soon if they have any hope of crawling out of their current hole.
  • Ernie Clement: -3 outs above average at second base. Ernie is normally an ace defender, with elite career grades at second and third and solid ones at short, but this year his range appears to be way down for some reason. He’s hitting fine, but he’s here for the glove and something just isn’t working right there.
  • Andres Gimenez: 5 home runs. Andres is on pace to set a career high for homers. The underlying stats don’t support that being really in any way, though. He looks like a significant regression candidate, which isn’t great to be saying about a guy with an 87 wRC+
  • Kazuma Okamoto: 69.2% contact rate. This one’s really a story of a trend. Through 25 games, Okamoto’s contact rate sat at 67.6%. That’s right on the borderline of what’s viable for an MLB hitter. In the 16 games since, it’s been a much more comfortable 72.6%, and seems to have plateaued there. Oak’s power isn’t in any doubt, his approach looks strong, and he’s sticking at third just fine. He just needs to hit enough to let the rest of his game sing, and it looks like he’s making the adjustments to pass that test.
  • Jesus Sanchez: 43.2% fast swing rate. Sanchez isn’t getting his A swing off as often as he usually does (56.6% over the past two seasons). He’s still hit for a little power, but if he gets comfortable we could see a jump in production.
  • Nathan Lukes: 1.8% walk rate. Lukes was chasing all over the place early in the season. Perhaps that had to do with the vertigo issues he was battling. Things were trending in the right direction as he found his footing in the six games before he went out with a hamstring injury, so hopefully he’ll be able to be his usual steady self when he returns.
  • Davis Schneider: 18.2% pulled air rate. Schneider lives and dies by his ability to pick the right pitch and yank it down the line in the air. Right now, the eye is working (21% walk rate) but the swing isn’t, and he’s delivering those pulled balls in the air about 10% less often than usual. The good news is that he’s always been streaky, and when it clicks he’s liable to go on a tear.
  • Yohendrick Pinango: 88.9% contact rate. You can’t say a ton about 34 PAs, but Pinango has proven that he can keep up with MLB pitching already. He’s going to have to work on elevating the ball more for his excellent power to play, but a sub-12% strikeout rate will earn him plenty of time to adjust.
  • Daulton Varsho: 27.1 feet per second sprint speed. Varsho hasn’t been running like he usually does, dropping from the 77th to the 49th percentile for sprint speed. As a result his defence has been more solid than exceptional so far. He’s also having a weird year at the plate, although not a particularly bad one. The defence is the thing with him, though, and like Clement it just hasn’t been clicking this season.
  • Myles Straw: 124 wRC+. Sure. But it kind of looks real! Straw’s lengthened his swing slightly and is swinging harder, while triggering earlier to actually meet the ball farther out front. As a result, he’s pulling it more than he has and elevating more than he has in years, producing a career best ISO that’s supported by the underlying data. He’s doing that while making the most contact of his career and still not chasing much. It’s probably just a hot streak, but Myles Straw: above average MLB hitter is at least on the table now. Baseball is weird.
  • George Springer: 24.8% squared up rate. One of the new StatCast bat metrics, squared up rate tracks the percentage of balls in play where the batter got most of the possible exit velocity on the ball given how hard the pitch was and how hard they swung. George was at 32.8% over the past two seasons. His discipline, contact, and bat speed all look fine, which is to say this doesn’t look like a collapse, it looks like he’s close to 2025 Springer but isn’t quite locked in. There’s hope for probably the most disappointing Blue Jay this season.

Today in White Sox History: May 13

Outfielder 'Shoeless Joe' Jackson of the Chicago White Sox poses for a portrait prior to an MLB game at Comiskey Park in Chicago, Illinois, circa 1919. Jackson, along with seven other teammates, would be suspended after the 1920 season for taking money from gamblers during the 1919 Chicago Black Sox World Series. In 2025, players that were banned from baseball for gambling, are now eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame.
On this day a year ago, Rob Manfred reinstated all banned players, making stars like Joe Jackson eligible for the Hall of Fame. | (Photo by TPLP/Getty Images)

1957
White Sox pitcher Billy Pierce became the first member of the team (and the first Chicago athlete) to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, with the headline “Pride of Chicago.” In 1957, the year the magazine cover came out, Pierce went 20-12 with a 3.26 ERA. It was his second straight 20-win season, and he led the league with 16 complete games, four shutouts, two saves, 257 innings and 192 strikeouts.


1959
Future Hall-of-Famer and White Sox manager Larry Doby was purchased from the Detroit Tigers for $30,000. It was Doby’s second stint on the South Side and third under manager Al Lopez, who seemed to carry an irrational distaste for Doby. At 35, the outfielder didn’t have any gas left in the tank, seeing action in just 21 games for the eventual pennant-winners, with a .560 OPS and -0.3 WAR. He was not active for the World Series, and in fact did not play after July 26, when he struck out in what would become his last plate appearance in the majors.


1975
White Sox pitcher Jim Kaat’s 12-game winning streak ended, losing 3-2 in Baltimore. Kaat had won his first five decisions in 1975 to follow his final seven in 1974. He’d become a 20-game winner in both seasons, averaging 290 innings pitched. Kaat made the All-Star team in 1975. 


1982
SportsVision made its debut. The first regional pay cable service devoted exclusively to sports began operations with a game at Comiskey Park vs. Milwaukee. The service was the brainchild of White Sox co-owner Eddie Einhorn and while brilliant, was ahead of its time. The technology wasn’t there, and more importantly, fans weren’t ready to pay for something they had been getting for free all their lives. At its peak, roughly 20,000 fans subscribed to the channel, which also included Bulls, Blackhawks and pro soccer Sting games.

The decision to go to a pay service caused popular announcer Harry Caray to bolt the team for the Cubs after 11 seasons on the South Side, despite a richer offer from the Sox for 1982. SportsVision, in its original version, lasted until the end of 1983, when it was sold to the Cablevision Company and turned into SportsChannel-Chicago. 

The White Sox, to their credit, put on a show for the first SportsVision game, banging out 20 hits to rout the Brewers, 13-2. LaMarr Hoyt went the distance, running his record to 7-0 and keeping the White Sox in first place in the AL West.


1988
Sure, when Harold Baines clubbed a third-inning home run to bring in two runs of an eventual 4-1 win vs. Toronto, it brought the White Sox back to .500 at 16-16. But the real consequence of Baines’ fifth round-tripper of the season was that it was the 155th of his career, passing Bill Melton to reach the top of the team’s all-time home run list. Melton had held the White Sox home run mark for 13 years.

Baines remains No. 5 on the White Sox dinger list, which is now led by Frank Thomas, with 448. Melton is still in the Top 10, ranking No. 9 in White Sox history.


2011
With the A’s trailing the White Sox, 4-3, in the eighth inning, Coco Crisp attempted heroism by stealing home, with southpaw Matt Thornton pitching. Crisp failed, with A.J. Pierzynski applying the tag, as the White Sox end up winning by the same one-run margin.


2025
By curious decree demanded by no one, commissioner Rob Manfred reinstated all players from the ineligible list, employing the logic that death should break any “ban” on them by MLB. Thus the Black Sox were reduced from stain to smudge. Joe Jackson and Ed Cicotte, in particular, are now eligible for the Hall of Fame.

Cubs vs Braves Prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 13

The Braves (29-13) won the series opener 5-2 over the Cubs (27-15) and have won three straight games. These are two of the teams with the best four records in baseball.

Chicago has lost three straight games after winning 10 consecutive. The Cubs remain in first place of the NL Central by 2.5 games despite the season-long losing streak. Chicago has scored two total runs in the three game losing streak and has been outscored 14-2. However, the Cubs are 4-1 in the last five starts for Shota Imanaga this season and won the past two.

Atlanta has earned its sixth winning steak of three games this season, but has only been able to make it four or more straight wins once. The Braves have outscored their last three opponents 19-6 in that stretch. Atlanta is 9.0 games ahead of Philadelphia and Washington and has the best record in the MLB.

Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Cubs at Braves

  • Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026
  • Time: 7:15 PM EST
  • Site: Truist Park  
  • City: Atanta, GA
  • Network/Streaming: MLB TV

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Cubs at the Braves

The latest odds as of Wednesday:

  • Moneyline: Atlanta Braves (+113), Chicago Cubs (-136)
  • Spread: Braves +1.5 (-143), Cubs -1.5 (+119)
  • Total: 8.5

Probable starting pitchers for Cubs at Braves

  • Wednesday's pitching matchup (May 13): Shota Imanaga vs. JR Ritchie
  • Cubs: Shota Imanaga

2026 stats: 47.1 IP, 4-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 53 Ks, 13 BB

  • Braves: JR Ritchie

2026 Stats: 17.1 IP, 1-0, 3.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13 Ks, 12 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not!

  • The Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki is hitting .284 with 29 hits and 53 total bases over 102 at-bats
  • The Cubs’ Dansby Swanson is hitting .197 with 27 hits and 33 strikeouts over 137 at-bats
  • The Braves’ Michael Harris II is hitting .311 with 41 hits and 67 total bases over 132 at-bats
  • The Braves’ Austin Riley is hitting .220 with 35 hits and 47 strikeouts over 159 at-bats

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Cubs at Braves

  • The Cubs are 19-23 ATS this season
  • The Braves are an MLB-best 29-13 ATS this season
  • The Cubs are 24-17-1 to the Over this season
  • The Braves are 21-18-3 to the Under this season
  • The Braves are an MLB-best 8-2 ATS as underdogs and 3-1 ATS as home underdogs
  • The Cubs are 7-12 ATS on the road and 4-8 ATS as road favorites
  • The Braves are 4-0 to the Under as home underdogs
  • The Braves are an MLB-best 8-2 to the Under as underdogs

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Cubs and the Braves

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Wednesday's game between the Cubs and the Braves.

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Braves on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Braves at +1.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 8.5

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)

Yankees Birthday of the Day: John Ryan Murphy

NEW YORK - JUNE 19: John Ryan Murphy #66 of the New York Yankees defends his position during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium on June 19, 2015 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Rob Tringali/SportsChrome/Getty Images) | Getty Images

John Ryan Murphy: a name that lives rent-free in my brain. Why? No one knows, other than the fact it sounds more like a nursery rhyme than the name of a former big-league catcher.

Murphy was once on the long list of Yankees right-handed catchers. Remember those days when Francisco Cervelli was the primary catcher, Gary Sánchez was the top prospect, and Austin Romine was viewed as a potential big-league starter and all were in the organization? And that was all shortly after New York traded then-uber-prospect Jesús Montero for 22-year-old Mariners All-Star Michael Pineda. How has all that already been over a decade ago?

John Ryan Murphy
Born: May 13, 1991 (Bradenton, FL)
Yankees Tenure: 2013-2015

Born in Florida, Murphy’s father hailed from the cold streets of Buffalo, New York and his mother immigrated from Cuba. Carolina Murphy spent over thirty years working at the somewhat-infamous IMG Academy in a variety of roles including serving as the tennis coach.

Using the college-like approach to scheduling, that Murphy would develop into an intriguing prospect especially with the bat at IMG. However, his stock skyrocketed after his coaches decided to move him to the catching position for his senior season.

The move paid off as Murphy was selected by the Yankees in the second round of the 2009 MLB Draft, 42nd overall. Murphy signed with New York, forgoing his scholarship to Miami, the only college he had even entertained. It was a move Murphy later said he did not regret and described it as a family decision.

After signing with the Yankees, Murphy—then known in Yankees circles as “J.R. Murphy”—made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League later that same week in his hometown of Bradenton. Since Murphy was still very new to the position his first few seasons in the minor leagues were spent focusing on refining his skills behind the dish. However, the bat that scouts originally liked was developing with each promotion within the system and earned him a minor-league All-Star selection in 2012.

Murphy put himself on the map for many fans when, as a non-roster invitee, he hit .364 in spring training before the 2013 campaign. Later that year, the 22-year-old was added to the 40-man roster and called up on September 1st. Murphy made his debut the next day pinch-hitting for Robinson Canó.

Perhaps the biggest moment Murphy had in pinstripes came a few weeks later on September 26th when he caught the final pitch legendary closer Mariano Rivera ever threw. It was a moment now forever etched in history: Murphy stood in awe as Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte came out of the dugout to take the ball from Mo. Murphy has previously confirmed he has a copy signed by all three legends.

The following season, Murphy would ride the Scranton shuttle a few times serving as the backup along with Cervelli for the newly acquired Brian McCann. In the backup role Murphy appeared in 32 games slashing .284/.318/.370 with a .688 OPS (95 wRC+), which are solid numbers off the bench for an above-average defensive catcher. He also got to hit his first career homer, a solo shot at Yankee Stadium on April 26th against the Angels’ Hector Santiago.

Entering the 2015 season the backup catching role behind McCann was up for grabs with Cervelli traded to the Pirates, and a motivated Murphy won the job out of spring training. Murphy stayed at the MLB level the entire season. Following the Midsummer Classic, Murphy found his groove at the plate and finished the season on a hot streak. He finished the season with three home runs, nine doubles, and a .277/.327/.406 slash line with a .734 OPS. Murphy had a much-memed moment during the playoff-clinching celebration and a particularly memorable homer to break a tie in the ninth inning on July 25th against the Twins. Still 24 years old, the bat seemed to have found the footing scouts had identified.

The Yankees would use this performance—and their depth at the catching position with a surging Sánchez—to move Murphy that offseason. In a deal now a touch notorious in the eyes of some fans, Murphy was sent to the Minnesota Twins for erstwhile top prospect Aaron Hicks. The deal shocked Murphy and though he saw the opportunity that opened for him he was never able to find his stride in Minnesota. Over parts of three seasons in the Bronx, Murphy appeared in 115 games for the Yankees. For what it’s worth, this was a steal for the Yankees, as while Hicks lagged in 2016, he was an excellent player for playoff teams in the next two seasons, with 42 homers and 6.6 fWAR in 225 games, along with a 128 wRC+. (The extension is a whole other matter.)

Murphy started the 2016 season on the Twins roster but a long slump at the start of the season saw him demoted to Triple-A. Despite the trials Murphy remained positive. The Twins and his teammates spoke very highly of Murphy’s character and leadership.

After starting the 2017 season in the minors with the Twins, Murphy was traded in July to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Gabriel Moya. Murphy spent parts of the next three seasons in the desert (getting punched out for former batterymate CC Sabathia’s 3,000th career strikeout) before the Atlanta Braves purchased his contract in July of 2019.

Murphy only got into a single game for Atlanta. Following the 2019 season Murphy, was a free agent for the first time. On January 10, 2020 he signed a contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

For the Pirates, Murphy appeared in 25 games during the COVID-shortened season. It still feels odd seeing photos of MLB games with empty seats. Once the season officially ended, Murphy was outrighted off the roster and his playing career was over.

However, Murphy could not stay away from the game for long! In 2023 he was hired by the Philadelphia Phillies as a player development instructor and was then hired by the club full-time for the following season as a position coach for the Clearwater Threshers. Murphy was also enshrined in the IMG Academy’s inaugural Hall of Fame class in November 2025.

In addition to baseball, Murphy lives up to his “Choir Boy” nickname off the field by being very hands-on in his commitment to help others. Murphy is the co-founder of the IamMore Foundation which aims to help children who have been diagnosed with a chronic condition reinvent their self-image. Additionally, Murphy is involved with the Miracle League of Greater Dayton and other causes that support individuals on the spectrum.

Good for you, John Ryan Murphy, and happy birthday too!


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.