Category: Baseball

This spring, the Cubs have given contract extensions to two key players — Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner.

Other teams have done the same, primarily with young players, some even with players who have yet to play a MLB game.

The Cubs have two veteran players who don’t really fit either category above, but who have both been important contributors to the team in recent years — Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Both are free agents after this season. They are almost exactly the same age, born 10 days apart (Happ, Aug. 8, 1994 and Suzuki, Aug, 18, 1994). So both turn 32 later this year.

Happ has been a consistent 4 bWAR player over the past four seasons. He’s won Gold Gloves each of those four seasons, and almost always posts an OPS near his career average of .790. You know you’re going to get around 22-23 home runs every year from him, a lot of walks that produce around a .340 OBP even with a BA in the .240s. He is a respected clubhouse leader. He’s already hit four home runs this year — last year he didn’t hit his fourth homer until June 5.

Suzuki has been a bit injury-prone, but had a breakout 2025 season in which he batted .245/.326/.478 with 32 home runs and 103 RBI. The latter two numbers were career highs, as were his runs total (75), his 31 doubles, and 75 walks. He began 2025 mostly as a DH, but when Kyle Tucker went down with various injuries, Suzuki played 48 games in the outfield and was at least competent. (Granted, he has shown little of the defensive form that had him win NPB’s Golden Glove Award five times.)

Suzuki is off to a somewhat slow start this year, .261/.393/.261 (6-for-23), with five walks giving him a decent OBP. But that’s only six games for Seiya, and I feel certain he’ll come close to matching his 2025 numbers in 2026.

So of these two, which one would you want the Cubs to extend? Or both? Or neither?

Personally, I think I’d rather keep Suzuki. It seems to me that he might provide a bit more power over the next few years than Happ, and he could slide into a DH role if needed.

What do you think?

Detroit Tigers (9-9) vs. Kansas City Royals (7-11)

Time/Place: 1:10 p.m., Comerica Park
SB Nation Site: Royals Review
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: RHP Keider Montero (1-1, 1.74 ERA) vs. LHP Kris Bubic (2-1, 2.50 ERA)

It’s been an up and down season so far for the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s entirely reasonable to expect that it will be an up and down season from here on out. We’re all hoping for an outcome that’s special and unexpected, but the likelihood is that we’ll have to live through growing pains. In some ways, JJ Wetherholt’s (very, very) early season results are a microcosm for the roller coaster nature of this team as a whole. This is fitting in a lot of ways, as we all hope JJ Wetherholt will be in St. Louis for a very long time. (Unless you’re somehow anti-Wetherholt?! Please, go ahead and identify yourself so we can turn up our noses at you and cross the street to the other side. Thanks!)

Wetherholt, of course, is an uber prospect. Everybody who ranks prospects (including your pet dog), had Wetherholt as a consensus top prospect in all of the minor leagues. This designation is a bit of a catch-22 for Cardinals prospects. Wetherholt descends from a shaky Cardinals prospect tree that includes names like Carlson, Reyes, Taveras (RIP – a true sliding doors moment for the franchise), and Walker (WOW JORDAN WALKER SO FAR). I’m fine staking my non-existent Cardinals reputation on the fact that Wetherholt is absolutely not going to be a failure. While I’m here giving takes, let me just bring up the spice level. I’d happily bet money that Wetherholt will be in a red jacket someday. How’s that for confidence?

In our last episode of Redbird Rundown, we ranked the top three most untradeable major leaguers on the Cardinals roster and despite Jordan Walker’s thermonuclear start (let’s do it again – WOW JORDAN WALKER SO FAR), Wetherholt remains the top of the heap for me. You may disagree, and that’s part of being an observer! Check out that list and so much more if you’re into audio content – Apple and Spotify!

If you’ve watched any of the games thus far, you’ve seen why I have such confidence in Wetherholt. The guy is a quintessential high-floor player. His approach is elite – maybe even beyond elite? Wetherholt is a one man wrecking crew for opposing hurler’s pitch counts. As such, he’s running a walk rate that is in the 76th percentile. While spitting on balls outside the zone, Wetherholt is hacking at pitches in the zone. In the very early going (Yes, I’m still aware it’s early. Thanks for checking.), Wetherholt is displaying an aggressiveness that he’s never shown as a professional. As of this writing, he’s swinging at 5% more pitches in the zone and 3% more pitches outside the zone. 

This newfound aggressiveness, while probably explained by a little rookie pressing to produce at the big league level, does not appear to be serving him well. His bat speed is exactly league average, so to leverage the surprising power he showed last year at Memphis, he’s going to have to swing at exactly the right pitches. Naturally, Wetherholt just had a two homer game two days ago, so there’s all the proof any of us need. 

For the season though, his batted ball data is strikingly average. He’s the Michael McGreevy of batted balls so far? Not sure. May need to workshop that. He’s almost exactly 50th percentile in barrel %, hard hit %, average exit velo, and squared up %. All of these numbers last year were much closer to the top of the MiLB system. Obviously, MLB hitters on average are better than MiLB hitters, but this suggests to me that Wetherholt is making contact with pitches he just can’t do as much with. In short, he’s swinging too much right now.

The biggest plague on Wetherholt’s offensive production so far is the sharply hit ball to second base. Now, before you get visions of Victor Scott II dancing in your head, don’t. In general, just don’t do that to yourself. But, Wetherholt is pulling so many more balls than last year. It’s shocking really. Last year he pulled 42.5% of his batted ball events in the minors, this year it’s up to 53.8%. What gives? His opposite field contact has fallen a full 14%. The best version of Wetherholt anyone has ever seen in his very short career (Wetherholt himself is a bit of a short king, no?) has a spray chart that looks like a shotgun blast. It’s all over the field. Right now, he’s pulling far more pitches and suffering from a .245 BABIP. Many of these hard grounders are right at the first and second basemen.

What’s the upshot? JJ Wetherholt is running a 109 wRC+ being a substandard version of his best offensive self. I’m going to chalk it up to rookie pressing. He also has an interesting habit of going through an adjustment period at each new level and then his baseball AI brain recalibrates and he dominates. I’m not sure we’ll see the lofty 154 wRC+ he ran last year in the minors, but I expect him to improve. It’s been an impressive start, even as it’s substandard for him. If that even makes sense.

As you watch him in the coming weeks, pay attention to how aggressive he is in the box. My hope is that he edges down towards his college and minor league seasons when it comes to swing rates. The track record of this more patient player is beyond impressive. I suspect that the Cardinals have a top of the order hitter that will be there for a long time just starting his adjustment period to major league pitching. We’ll see what the future brings.

As always, thanks for reading! It’s been a great experience at VEB so far. Thanks for that! You can usually find me during games hanging out on twitter @mksmith86. I honestly tweet more from our podcast handle @redbirdrundown2. Drop by and say hey!

The Royals will look to avoid a sweep and try to get the offense going. They’ve score more than two runs in a game just once in their last eight contests.

Kris Bubic goes for the Royals, after seven shutout innings and a career-high 11 strikeouts his last time out. He’ll have to pitch around Riley Greene, who is 4-for-9 (.444) with a double and triple in their career matchups.

The Tigers start Keider Montero, who has done a great job filling in for the injured Justin Verlander with a 1.74 ERA in two starts.

First pitch is at 12:10 CT on Royals.TV.

Columbus Clippers 9, Iowa Cubs 4

It was a great day for the Clippers offense, we saw contributions from a lot of prospects. Kahlil Watson went 3-3 with a HR and continues to prove that he is very close to deserving a call up to the big leagues. He has destroyed AA/AAA pitching for over a year now, his OPS is up to .944 on the season. Travis Bazzana also seems to be getting comfortable, he went 2-4 with a strikeout and a walk. Stuart Fairchild went 3-4, and Milan Tolentino went 2-4 with two HRs of his own.

Logan Allen allowed 4 runs on 7 hits but did also have 7 strikeouts in the 4 innings he pitched. His ERA is up to 5.93 on the season. Collin Holderman, Tanner Burns, and Jake Miller combined for 5 scoreless innings of relief.

Akron RubberDucks 3, Harrisburg Senators 0

The story of this game was how well top pitching prospect Khal Stephen looked. Despite walking 5 batters, he was absolutely dominant while striking out 6 and not allowing a single hit. His ERA is down to 0.71 on the season and we could be having a conversation very soon about him starting some games in Cleveland this summer. Magnus Ellerts and Carter Rustad had two scoreless innings of relief.

Angel Genao continues his hot start with a 2-3 and a BB performance today. He is looking more and more like the player we thought he was after the 2024 season before playing with an injury in 2025. He’s up to a .314 average and a .986 OPS on the season.

Hill City Howlers 6, Wilson Warbirds 3

Juneiker Caceres appears to be heating up after a somewhat slow start in Single A. He went 2-5 today with two doubles and his OPS is up to .717 on the season, I fully expect that to continue to climb. Robert Arias went 3-4 with two RBIs and is now hitting .273 with a .703 OPS on the season.

Nelson Keljo had another awesome start, striking out 7 batters in just 3.2 innings and allowing two runs. His ERA is at 2.35 on the season. Zane Petty, Keegan Zinn, and Angel Perez combined for 5.1 innings of relief and allowed just one run.

Texas Rangers lineup for April 16, 2026 against the A’s: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Jacob Lopez for the A’s.

Texas will be looking to split the series finale today. The A’s have a lefty starting, so Evan Carter and Joc Pederson are sitting, and Corey Seager is also getting the day off.

The lineup:

Nimmo — RF

Haggerty — LF

Langford — CF

Burger — 1B

Jung — 3B

Higashioka — C

McCutchen — DH

Smith — 2B

Duran — SS

2:05 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are -120 favorites.

Last week, Yankees right-hander Luis Gil made his season debut against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing three runs in four innings, with three hits, three walks, and just two strikeouts. He was undoubtedly shaky despite limiting the damage somewhat. On Wednesday, he made his second start, and even though there were some improvements, the results were similar in the run-prevention department.

Gil was able to pitch five innings, but conceded three home runs and four runs in total. The Angels had five hits and worked two walks against the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Award winner, who struck out five.

First, the good: Gil induced 12 swings and misses, improving the 16 percent whiff rate he achieved on his season debut to a much better 34 percent. This time, the Angels swung and missed on three four-seamers, five changeups, and four sliders.

The breaking and offspeed stuff looked better this time around, even if the fastball command doesn’t appear to be there yet. At least Gil was able to miss some bats, sparking some hope about a potential turnaround when the dust settles.

If you were wondering, Gil’s fastball averaged 95.6 mph on the night, slightly up from 95.1 in his season debut. It’s still far from the 96.6 mph he averaged in his award-winning 2024 campaign, but if he’s healthy and remains a part of the Yankees’ rotation, he could potentially get closer to that number.

Now, the bad: Gil didn’t appear to trust the sinker. He only threw the pitch five times according to Statcast data, all vs. right-handed hitters. He earned a called strike with it, but nothing more. It’s unclear if ditching the sinker will be a thing going forward or if it was part of the game plan against the Angels, but he didn’t really use the pitch much on this one.

Another red flag was the low first-pitch strike rate, 50 percent on Wednesday. It was significantly lower than his 56.1 percent career mark, and it’s certainly something to worry about. Falling behind in the count will force Gil to cede control of the at-bat to the hitter, and that’s, well, not ideal.

Lastly, the ugly: three home runs. Wow. Nobody will complain about Gil allowing a home run to Mike Trout, one of the best hitters ever to play the game. Surrendering a home run to Adam Frazier is bad, though. That middle-middle fastball was screaming “hit me”:

The Angels hit Gil hard all night. There were 15 batted ball events against him in the game, and 10 of them were classified as hard-hit balls, which means they traveled at least 95 mph off the bat. In the first inning alone, their exit velocities against the Yankees’ righty were 98.1 mph, 99.7 mph, 97.1 mph, and 104.4 mph. The Angels’ average exit velo was 96.1 mph. Rough.

Gil will need to find a way to increase his fastball velocity or at least sharpen the pitch’s command if he wants to return to 2024 form.

The mediocre outing leaves his ERA at 7.00 in the young season. Again, he still has some time to pull off a comeback and return to form, but Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón will eventually be ready to return from their injuries. Carlos Lagrange and Elmer Rodríguez will eventually put themselves in the MLB picture. And those who don’t keep the team in games won’t get too many chances.

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Today’s pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat features two players who’ve struggled early in the season.

I’m expecting those struggles to continue and we’ll see a lot of offense in this one.

Read on to see why the Over is the play in my free MLB picks and Blue Jays vs. Brewers predictions for Thursday, April 16.

Blue Jays vs Brewers predictions

Blue Jays vs Brewers best bet: Over 8.5 (-110)

We’ve seen some great pitching matchups this series, but today may not be one of them. 

I’m anticipating a lot of offense in this one with Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat on the mound this afternoon. 

Both starters have an ERA north of 10. Corbin has just one start, but gave up four runs in four innings, meanwhile Sproat’s given up 12 runs in just three starts this season

Additionally, we’ve seen the Over hit in four of the last five Toronto Blue Jays games with them batting .282 with 49 hits over that stretch, while the Milwaukee Brewers rank 6th averaging 5.2 runs per game this season.

COVERS INTEL: Brandon Sproat has a 10.45 ERA, and ranks in the fifth percentile with an 8.10 xERA.  

Blue Jays vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)

The Blue Jays' bats seem to be coming around, sporting a .282 average over their last five games, averaging 9.8 hits per game. 

Sproat has struggled mightily this season, ranking in just the 14th percentile in expected batting average while allowing 4.6 hits per game and Daulton Varsho is well-positioned to capitalize.

Varsho comes in riding a six-game hitting streak, recording a hit in eight of his last nine games. Batting in the two-hole again, he’s in a prime spot to give Sproat serious trouble on the mound.

I’ll continue by fading the Brewers starter and take Sproat to go Over 1.5 walks. He’s walked at least three batters in each of his three starts this year, and takes on a Jays team who has an elite eye at the plate. 

Blue Jays vs Brewers SGP

• Over 8.5
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
• Brandon Sproat Over 1.5 walks

Blue Jays vs Brewers home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+475)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t seen the ball fly the way he did last fall, but we’re starting to see the power shine through with multiple XBH over the last week of games. 

Sproat gives up a lot of hard contact, too, ranking in the 14th percentile in hard hit rate this season with six XBH allowed. 

Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has elite numbers against the sinker ball with a .467 batting average and last season had a .532 slug-rate against the pitch, which is Sproat’s go-to pitch with 37% usage.

Blue Jays vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -102 | Milwaukee -116
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+168) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-205)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Brewers trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.75 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Brewers.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Brewers and game info

Blue Jays vs Brewers latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Brewers weather

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Worcester: L, 3-5 (BOX SCORE)

This game may have had a totally different outcome if the WooSox simply left fewer men on base, especially later on. A total of 14 were left stranded in the midst of 11 walks by Sounds (Brewers AAA) pitchers. It also didn’t help that the WooSox found themselves quickly down 5-1 due to ineffective starting pitching. To Worcester’s credit, Nashville was equally as abysmal with runners in scoring position; the Sound were held to 3 for 17 in that stat and stranded a dozen. So, in the end, the result was the result due to some early productivity by the home team, as well as some key extra-base hits when the leverage wasn’t quite so high. The team as a whole, though, looks uninspired at the plate after most started the season mashing. When at least one member is an injury list stint away from playing at Fenway, that’s not a great thing.

Portland: W, 8-6 (BOX SCORE)

Gage Ziehl, the return for getting Jordan Hicks out of here, had some sweet redemption from his last start. He went five strong and scoreless and struck out six. This was enough for the Sea Dogs to get out to a 5-0 lead in the third inning, as they took Altoona (Pirates AA) pitching for a ride via a lead-off home run by Franklin Arias (his second in as many games) and outfielder Will Turner hitting a triple with two on. The Sea Dogs stranded nine and eventually the bullpen let the lead shrink, but early offense and a great start by Ziehl was enough for Portland to stand alone as the only winners on the farm Wednesday.

On Ziehl, whose five innings actually LOWERED his ERA to 6.14: the former Miami Hurricane is still just 22 years of age and is a former Yankees draft pick, which is somehow even sweeter that he’s making moves in the Sox organization. His fastball lacks some velocity (it tops out at 92) but that gives it plenty of room to get tinkered with. Maybe more to come?

Greenville: L, 4-6 (BOX SCORE)

I want to acknowledge that the Drive played spotless defense, not committing any errors, while the Hot Rods (Rays High-A). This is usually the other way around, and while an errorless baseball game should be the norm, it’s good when it happens. The starting pitching by Luis Cohen wasn’t as spotless, and so the Drive found themselves at an early disadvantage. The good news is that Greenville hit four home runs on the night, but the bad news is that they were all solo shots, and the potential damage was minimized. If not for Greenville going hitless in seven attempts with runners in scoring position, those four home runs may have spawned a totally different conversation.

Salem: L, 4-5 (BOX SCORE)

The RidgeYaks were subject to a late blown lead despite an otherwise solid 4 2/3 innings of relief by former Texas A&M Aggie Myles Patton, who’s looked really good in the early going. Salem entered the 8th up 4-3 thanks in part to a very early home run by their nine-slot in the lineup shortstop, Ilan Hernandez, but the lead couldn’t be held. That inning got Salem up to a 3-0 lead over the Crawdads (Rangers A) but the lead was given right back via a Hickory double with the bases loaded, which effectively ended starter Jacob Mayers’ day. The game was quiet sans those few high-adrenaline moments, but in the end Hickory simply had more of them.

Have a solid Thursday!

After the offense got shut out for the first time this season, they boys will look to bounce back and secure a split in Pittsburgh. It has been a long and mostly successful road trip, but getting this win would be a great way to close things out. The Nats are playing some early afternoon baseball on getaway day.

With a righty on the mound, the Nats are loading the lineup with lefties. Luis Garcia Jr. will be back in the 2 spot after hitting 9th last night. Jorbit Vivas will actually be the DH today as well. Jacob Young returns to center field after Joey Wiemer got the start yesterday. Drew Millas and Nasim Nunez will be at the bottom of the order. Foster Griffin will look to stay hot this afternoon.

With a lefty on the mound, the Pirates have a very different looking lineup. Ryan O’Hearn and Spencer Horowitz will not be in there. Billy Cook and Jake Mangum will be getting starts this afternoon. Nick Yorke will be at first base in this one. With a lefty on the bump, Brandon Lowe will be lower in the lineup. Braxton Ashcraft is one of the most underrated arms in the league, and he will face the Nats today. 

Game Info:

Stadium: PNC Park

Time: 12:35 PM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

Getting a win here would be an awesome way to close out a fun road trip. The offense was shut down for the first time last night, so hopefully they are coming to the park angry. Follow along down below and let’s go Nats!

Bryce Elder has made four starts and given up a grand total of one (1) run so far across four starts and 23.1 innings of work. That’s it — that’s the stat. As of now, there are only three pitchers who are ahead of Elder on the leaderboard and one of them is Shohei Ohtani. I bet you never thought you’d see those two guys in the same stratosphere, now did you?

Yet, here we are: It’s real and so far it’s been spectacular for Bryce Elder, who has stormed out of the gates to what is certainly one of the best stretches of his career so far. He’s scaled similar peaks over the course of his career but he’s certainly experienced his fair share of valleys as well. 2023 comes to mind when it comes to the peak for Elder, which is when he pitched his way into the All-Star Game during that season. The valleys have been covered in excruciating detail as well.

So while this is certainly a pleasant surprise, we’ve also been here with Elder before. The big question is what’s so different about the peak he’s currently on now and the peaks that he’s experienced in the past. I asked Elder about how he feels now compared to 2023 and it’s clear that he’s got a bit more confidence in his arsenal as a pitcher.

“I feel a little bit more complete,” answered Elder. “I think that year I just had however many starts where I was just executing pitches when I needed to — getting to a certain count and making the pitch. I feel a little bit more complete [now], I have more weapons and I’m going to try and keep it going.”

Indeed, Elder has been working a cutter into his arsenal and while it’s not the pitch that he’s been using to put away batters, he’s used it as a solid complimentary pitch aside from his usual arsenal. He’s also gone back to relying more on his slider instead of primarily sticking with the sinker and that’s gone a long way towards helping as well. Heading into Wednesday’s action, Bryce Elder had thrown the slider 93 times (according to StatCast) and opposing batters had only hit .083 against it with an xBA of .091.

His sinker had been getting knocked around a bit (to the tune of a .412 BA and a .338 xBA) but he’s used it to great effect as a Put Away pitch at 45.5 percent and a whiff rate of 27 percent. He’s getting a 28 percent whiff rate and a 32.1 Put Away percentage on the slider and his four-seamer has also gotten more effective with a whiff rate of 23.1 and a Put Away percentage of 25 percent. It’s nearly night and day compared to the numbers that he was getting on those pitches when he was spending 2024 and 2025 trying to get back to where he was in 2023.

Walt Weiss was asked by the media about Elder’s stuff so far and it’s clear that he’s noticed that the entire arsenal is working well for him right now. Elder stated earlier that he felt more “complete” and Weiss seemed to echo that thought in his remarks.

“It’s all his pitches, really,” stated Weiss. “His secondary stuff is better. His slider is a really underrated pitch and when you go back to his first year when he made the All-Star team, you’d see a lot of hitters swing and bounce sliders, they just didn’t see his slider. I think he’s got that slider back again. He’s getting a lot of swing-and-miss on it. He’s getting some takes on it. They just don’t see it very well. He’s got the cutter to add to the arsenal.”

“He had it once upon a time but he brought it back and it’s a good pitch for him,” continued Weiss. “He compliments the changeup really well and the changeup’s gotten better. All of his stuff has ticked up…He’s got three different fastballs: The two-seam, the four-seam and the cutter. It makes it difficult on a hitter when you’ve got three different fastballs and the other stuff is working too, so he’s throwing the ball really well.”

One thing that’s left to ponder now is just how long this is going to last for Bryce Elder. If you’re a believer in the Greg Maddux effect and the other changes that he’s made then there’s no reason to think that this couldn’t be the start of a major bounce-back season for Elder. Again, he’s experienced this type of form int he past where he was getting results and getting guys out at a very high rate. The difference now is that he appears to be a bit more confident in his stuff and his command — the days of waiting for a hanging slider from Elder to get hit to the moon by an opposing pitcher appear to be done for now, at least.

Again, there’s going to come a time when Elder will return to a valley and go through a rough patch. It happens to all pitchers and it’s just a part of baseball. The hope going forward is that we’ll no longer see Elder fall into a category of being an enigma — someone who’s go the capability to be a reliable pitcher but can’t quite seem to harness it on a regular basis. If we start seeing a less enigmatic version of Bryce Elder going forward, that should hopefully turn into a more reliable version of Elder as well.

Either way, it’s certainly been a pleasant surprise to see Elder start off his season on such a strong note. The starting rotation was a big question mark coming into this season and while we’re still in the early portion of this particular campaign, we’re getting closer to some of those question marks turning into periods. It’d certainly be huge if the ultimate question mark known as Bryce Elder ended up becoming a steady presence in the rotation rather than a source of frustration. We’ll see what happens!

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The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians begin a four-game set at Progressive Field tonight, and I’ve got a pair of MLB picks for the series opener.

My top Orioles vs. Guardians predictions expect the Orange Birds to pull off a low-scoring win on Thursday, April 16.

Who will win Orioles vs Guardians tonight: Orioles moneyline (+110)

Cleveland Guardians starter Parker Messick will face a tough test this evening, as the Baltimore Orioles rank third in wOBA against southpaws. 

The 25-year-old lefty has an unsustainable .227 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate, so while his 3.37 xFIP is still an excellent mark through three starts, regression is coming for Messick, and the pendulum is set to swing the other way.

Cleveland is also 20th in wOBA against righties, and Baltimore right-hander Shane Baz has impressed over the past two years, allowing three runs or fewer in 22 of his last 34 starts.

COVERS INTEL: The Orioles own the fifth-lowest bullpen xFIP this season.

Orioles vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

Although I’m anticipating Messick running into problems, I’m not expecting statistical regression to hit him all at once.

Messick is limiting opposing hitters to a 28.9% hard-hit rate and owns positive pitch values on each of his offerings to start the season.

I also expect Baz to have a solid day on the mound. His 2025 numbers were skewed by pitching home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field — a minor-league park — and his arsenal features a plus fastball and knuckle curve.

Orioles vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Orioles +113 | Guardians -117
• Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-186) | Guardians -1.5 (+178)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Orioles vs Guardians trend

Baltimore has hit the Under in 30 of its last 50 games (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Guardians.

How to watch Orioles vs Guardians and game info

Orioles vs Guardians latest injuries

Orioles vs Guardians weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.