Category: Baseball

The majority of the core that won the 2023 World Series is still present on the Rangers roster three years later. The unrelenting passage of time and the fragile nature of the human body has meant that, even though many of the names are the same, the talent level on this roster is much less than what it was when they won a championship. Maybe that’s why it feels like this year is the last hurrah for this version of the Rangers. Corey Seager hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season since 2022, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are on the wrong side of 35, and it doesn’t look like there’s much near-future help coming through the farm system.

The pitching staff should be pretty good; they were elite last year but probably won’t rise to that level again. The lineup should be pretty good too, even though they weren’t very good last year. The roster seems like it’s going to get hit hard by regression — upwards for the bats, downwards for the arms — which makes projecting the team particularly difficult.

Position	Rangers Projected WAR	Mariners Projected WAR	Edge
Catcher	2.5	6.1	Mariners
First Base	1.3	2.9	Mariners
Second Base	1.6	2.7	Mariners
Shortstop	4.5	2.8	Rangers
Third Base	2.0	3.0	Mariners
Left Field	3.4	2.2	Rangers
Center Field	3.4	6.0	Mariners
Right Field	2.4	2.0	Rangers
Designated Hitter	1.8	1.6	Rangers
Starting Pitching	14.6	14.2	Rangers
Relief Pitching	1.9	3.4	Mariners
Total	39.5	46.8	Mariners

The Rangers outpace the Mariners at shortstop, in the outfield corners, and barely edge them out in the starting rotation. The biggest potential for growth comes from their two young outfielders, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. The former is already projected to be one of the better left fielders in the game while the latter has battled injuries the last few years but is still only 23. On the pitching side of things, deGrom, Eovaldi, and newcomer MacKenzie Gore form a very potent one through three atop the rotation. Even if the pitching depth isn’t as good as it was last year, the ceiling provided by that trio is very high.

Bringing in Brandon Nimmo and Gore should help delay the team’s inevitable decline; both are still very good players right now and are under team control for at least the next two years. It’s very easy to imagine a scenario in 2026 where Seager stays healthy, the two aces atop the rotation stave off Father Time for one more year, and young guys like Langford and Carter take a big step forward. It’s just as easy to imagine the complete opposite scenario where everything falls apart. That huge variation in potential outcomes makes this team extremely difficult to pin down. They could be really good! They could be really bad! The most likely outcome is somewhere in the mediocre middle, neither good enough to compete nor bad enough to push them to tear everything down.

2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: 80.7-81.3, 2nd in AL West, 35.5% playoff odds

2026 PECOTA projections: 83.6-78.4, 3rd in AL West, 43.2% playoff odds

If It All Goes Right

Sure, it’s a flattened and idealized version of history, but who doesn’t love a lone cowboy? One man set against the multifaceted forces of the world, his only weapon a six-shooter and his own rugged indifference. It’s the man in the arena, but on a horse. That’s how Skip wanted them to think of themselves, at least. One man. Simple tools. One mission.

Of course, it’s not really like that. They are nothing without each other, and this year, finally, all those disparate pieces gelled into one unstoppable offensive machine. A new training program kept the most fragile among them on the field all year, led by Corey Seager, fully healthy and now fully a power hitter – so what if his defense had lost a step when he’s smacking 36 homers? And for once not everything rested on Seager’s shoulders, flanked by a trio of powerful young All-Stars in Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford, and Josh Jung, who finally solved his own injury issues, with Carter’s long-awaited breakout year finally coming to fruition.

With that combination of speed, power, and on-base ability at the top half, the rest of the lineup could have taken at-bats off, but they never did, led by the veteran Brandon Nimmo, who fit in immediately like a pair of broken-in boots. Any time a younger player wandered too far afield Nimmo was right there to lasso him back to reality, offering pep talks and gentle correction. The top of the lineup did most of the heavy lifting, of course, but the rest of the lineup was happy to play Tonto to everyone else’s Lone Ranger.

Could they pitch? Not even a little bit, but who cares, when you’re averaging – averaging – five runs a game. Forget about defense; the most powerful guns win the wars.

They lived the motto that year – one riot, one Ranger – acting as a unified, unstoppable force, a riot of offense and damn all the rest. Who cared about a statue, or a Pride Night, or paid maternity leave? They had two pennants in five years. Anyone would be happy to ride off into the sunset with that. —KP

If It All Goes Wrong

This is an easy one. 

About one-third of the Rangers projected value is tied up in three players: Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. All three are great, and all three will be on a Hall of Fame ballot some day. All three are also highly likely to spend time on the injured list this year. Seager (32) made three trips to the IL in 2025; he missed time in six of the last seven non-COVID seasons. deGrom (38) was healthy last year for the first time since missing most of four consecutive seasons. Eovaldi (36) has his own poor track record of health and finished 2025 on the IL.

So while I acknowledge the tradition of this series is creative writing and imagery, this just… it’s obvious. The Rangers need everything to go right. They are old. They are fragile. They are top heavy. It’s like watching Nolan Ryan attempt the milk crate challenge.

The Rangers are already on the long-arch towards, “It All Goes Wrong.” Between 2022 and 2023, they had the largest influx of high-priced talent in recent baseball history, elevating from one of the worst teams in the league to a bit above average. And hey, that’s all they needed in 2023, winning 90 games, finishing second in the AL West, and defeating the mighty Diamondbacks in the World Series. Good for them.

But such an improbable title run obscured a more fundamental issue with the depth of the organization. There was no plan in place to sustain highly competitive rosters.  They’d already locked up the “Big Free Agent” chunk of their budget. They didn’t have much of a farm system to supplement their core, or even to trade from. They were largely content to stare at the reflection in their trophy. 

They entered 2024 needing it all to go right. They were the most injured team in the American League and missed the playoffs.  

They entered 2025 needing it all to go right. They underperformed their pythagorean record by nine wins and missed the playoffs. 

And now the Rangers enter 2026, needing it all to go right again,  the odds growing longer. Their championship core has started to break up, with plenty of hard feelings to go around. The rest is filled out with not-quite-failed prospects and not-quite-retired veterans. The greatest splurge in the history of the sport, all for a lone winning season, and a Texas-sized white flag to hang in the rafters, forever. —RB

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Spring Training is rapidly drawing to a close, and while the Royals have a variety of much more interesting options for their outfield than they had at this time last year, they don’t appear to have any clear frontrunners.

Lane Thomas was the first offseason addition, but he profiles as more of a weak-side platoon hitter and pinch hitter than a starting outfielder. Additionally, he was hurt most of last year, and he has not had a particularly good Spring Training, striking out in more than half of his plate appearances so far.

Isaac Collins was acquired next, via trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, and immediately assumed the de facto starting left field role after finishing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year. Unfortunately, his batted ball metrics were subpar last year, which already gave cause for concern about his ability to replicate his rookie season, but now he has gotten a late start to Spring Training and has struck out more than 40% of the time since he started playing. Neither he nor Thomas are chasing all that much, but they’re both only swinging at about half the pitches they see in the strike zone, far below the league average.

The Royals signed Starling Marte to fill out the bench last week, but he might be the most interesting option they have in left field, considering we at least haven’t seen him fail yet. But there’s a little more than a week of Spring Training left, and we haven’t seen him take the field yet. It’s hard to imagine he’s going to be 100% up to speed when the season starts at this pace.

Michael Massey could be an option, but he’s battling another leg injury. Jonathan India is only playing at second this year. Other potential candidates would seem to include Kameron Misner, John Rave, Drew Waters, Tyler Tolbert, and Nick Loftin. Who you got?

Batting Average on Balls in Play is a stat that’s about as objective mathematically as can be. The fine folks at FanGraphs provide this concise explanation of the metric.

The basics are this: when a batter puts a bat on the ball and it ends up in the field of play, how often does said batter not get retired? Home runs go over the fence and therefore aren’t ‘in the field of play,’ while sacrifices are pulled out the equation due to the batter giving themselves up for the good of the team. What you’re left with at the end, mathematically, is a data set of millions of plate appearances that ended up with batters putting pitches into play, with roughly 30% of those ending up as hits.

If a player posts a season with a .351 BABIP – like, for example, Gavin Lux did in 2025 – odds are there was some good luck, or good fortune propping that up. If a player posts a season with a .255 BABIP – like one of the players I’ll mention immediately below – odds are there was some bad luck, or bad fortune at play.

There’s some obvious noise in there, though, as not all batted balls are created the same. Fly balls (that don’t go over the wall) are a lot easier to turn into outs than line drives and even grounders, so players who show extreme fly-ball heavy approaches will typically have lower BABIP numbers than those who don’t. Speedy guys that race down the 1B line can more easily leg out infield hits than lumbering sluggers, so you don’t see a lot of catchers with high BABIP numbers, for instance.

All of this, of course, is relative to pitchers, too. Extreme fly-ball pitchers might surrender more homers, but they typically have lower BABIP against them than their grounder brethren. Inducing weak contact from hitters typically leads to a lower BABIP against, too, all factors that help determine whether a pitcher’s expected BABIP based on their pitching profile should actually be closer to .290 or .310 than just .300.

Anyway, here are a handful of Cincinnati Reds who – based on BABIP and their respective approaches – should probably be due for some better fortune in 2026 than they were last season.

Will Benson, OF

2025 BABIP: .255

Career BABIP prior to 2025: .331

I have hammered this point home about Benson already this offseason, so I will try not to belabor it while highlighting some of his peers who likely will see better luck in 2026, too.

To summarize, Benson hit just .226/.273/.435 in 2025 with a .255 BABIP despite his batting percentile rankings (had he had enough PA to qualify) all landing in the top 15% of all hitters in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and launch angle sweet-spot percentage. He’s not an extreme fly-ball hitter, either, and he refined his approach well in 2025 to swing at better pitches in-zone (and make a lot better contact when he did).

He’s fast, too – 94th percentile last year, per Statcast. Guys that fast should never end up with just a .255 BABIP.

I think Benson’s in for a big, big regression in 2026 in a good way. He just needs the playing time.

Graham Ashcraft, RHP

2025 BABIP: .342

Career BABIP prior to 2025: .305

Ashcraft leans on his 97+ mph cutter out of the bullpen, a completely filthy pitch that both limits hard contact and induces a ton of grounders. Yes, ground-ball heavy pitchers typically have higher BABIP allowed than fly-ball pitchers, but the weak contact nuance with Ashcraft should mitigate a lot of that. For instance, he allowed just a 24.6% hard-hit % (per FanGraphs) last year – tied for the 10th best among the 287 pitchers who threw at least 60 IP – while his 55.9% grounder rate was tied for 17th on that same list.

Nobody ranked higher than him in either category allowed a BABIP anywhere close to his. Eight of the pitchers who ranked ahead of him on that hard-hit list posted BABIP numbers of .275 or below.

His xERA (3.46) and FIP (2.72) think Graham got royally screwed last year, as they were both significantly better than his 3.99 ERA. I think 2026 is a year where those all begin to tell the same story, and the Reds are going to be better off because of it.

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B

2025 BABIP: .289 (.270 with Reds after being acquired)

Career BABIP prior to 2025: .312

Look, there’s not really going to be anything about Hayes’ offensive profile that jumps off the page. He’s just not a very good hitter, and of late has been one of the worst in the entire sport. There’s a lot of small sample noise in Hayes’ initial foray into playing for the Cincinnati Reds, but even his entire body of work between the Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates last season suggests he was a bit unluckier than he should of been.

Perhaps the biggest question right now is just how much his back issues have haunted him, and how much they’ll continue to do so. As recently as 2023, he ranked in the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate and 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, but last year those nose-dived to the 46th percentile and 39th percentile, respectively. He ranked in just the 13th percentile in barrel rate and 9th in xSLG, meaning he really, really wasn’t making very good contact at all.

Still, there’s evidence that he’s been able to hit the ball decently hard before, and last year his 49.0% grounder rate ranked 11th highest in the sport among qualified hitters. With a healthy-enough back and an average sprint speed that’s close enough to league average, I’d expect his BABIP to shoot back up above .300 again in 2026.

Chase Burns, RHP

2025 BABIP: .360

Burns allowed a .316 BABIP during his electric season with Wake Forest in 2024 before being the #2 overall draft pick. When he debuted as a pro in 2025, he posted a .258 BABIP in 42.0 IP with AA Chattanooga and a .244 BABIP in 66.0 IP in the minors across all stops before his call-up to the big leagues.

Without getting too numbers-heavy on a pitcher with such a small sample of results, I’ll simply point out that a) nobody with his filthy arsenal of pitches is going to post a .360 BABIP allowed again and b) that one disastrous start against Boston last year where he was tipping pitches featured a .667 BABIP against him in-game.

Chase Burns stock to the moon!

Let’s just get this right out of the way right out of the gate: As long as all five Opening Day starters don’t hit the 60-Day IL at some point during this season like they did during the 2025 season, this rotation should be fine and will be improved over what we saw last season. Assuming there isn’t another catastrophic rash of injuries, that fact alone should help the Braves improve upon the disappointment of 2025.

With that being said, there’s a very open question on what the ceiling looks like for this rotation. They’re already missing three potential candidates to start, as Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both had to undergo elbow surgery that’ll keep them out for a significant period of time and Joey Wentz will miss the entire season due to a torn right ACL. So right out of the gate, the organizational depth is already being challenged and Schwellenbach will surely be missed from the primary group of starters as this season progresses.

While there are questions concerning this starting rotation, there’s still reason to believe that this rotation could be a solid and reliable one heading into the upcoming season.

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Chris Sale

Sale will be entering his age-37 season and as usual for Atlanta’s current head of the rotation (and for the rest of the team, really) the key will be health. As long as Sale stays on the mound, he should be effective. Assuming he doesn’t have a complete capitulation to Father Time, Sale should be good for something in the neighborhood of 11 strikeouts per nine innings, something around two walks per nine innings while also making sure to keep the vast majority of any fly balls inside of the ballpark as well.

As of right now over at the FanGraphs Depth Chart for the Braves, Sale is currently projected to finish with a 3.15 ERA and a 3.06 FIP for 4.0 WAR. If that’s the case then the Braves should be very happy with what he’ll be delivering to them in terms of production. They also seem to be pretty confident that he’s got it in him as well, as he’ll be entering this season fresh off of signing a big contract extension that’ll keep him around through 2027 and possibly even 2028 if he keeps it up since the Braves added a club option onto his contract extension like they’re wont to do.

I’d feel pretty confident in that as well. The velocity on his pitches have been pretty steady, as his heater has been sitting near 95-mph for the past two seasons and his slider has also been in the realm of the high-70s and low-80s for some time as well. Those are the two pitchers he relies on the most and they’ve been very reliable for him in that regard. As long as that holds up and he avoids a freak accident on the field then Sale should provide another season of steadying performances at the top of this rotation.

Spencer Strider

Questions surrounding Strider’s velocity have been the talk of the town for what feels like the entirety of spring training. I’ll say that in Strider’s case, this is a double-edged sword. The good news is that he won’t be out there throwing 92 or 93-mph during the regular season like he was to start out spring training so anybody panicking over that particular bit of information can calm down. The bad news is that if you’re anticipating the version of Spencer Strider who was throwing 98-99 and even reaching triple digits on the radar gun, then you may as well let those dreams go because it appears that the one whose fastball was at 95-96 and whose slider was at 84-85 is the one who’s here to stay.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing because it’s not as if Strider appears to be lost in the lurch without that high level of velocity. Instead, Strider is trying to adjust to this new reality in order to find an effective mix of pitches that can work for him going forward. He’s clearly been working on mixing things up since he can no longer rely upon simply blowing his four-seamer and slider past any batters. If 2025 was about simply getting back on the mound and working things out, this past offseason and spring training is about making sure that whatever he figured out in the past will translate into something that can bring him back to a level that justifies his current position near the top of the rotation.

A lot of the struggles that he dealt with in 2025 had to do with that adjustment period, in my opinion. Assuming he can work things out when it comes to his location and command, it’s very easy to see Strider becoming a an effective pitcher for the Braves going forward. Will he be as electric as he was in the past? Probably not but if he can at least get his strikeout rate back up to a “respectable” number for his standards then that’ll be a fine result. The FanGraphs depth chart currently figures that Strider could deliver a 10.6 K/9 rate alongside a 3.1 BB/9 rate, which would work out just fine for him and the Braves.

Reynaldo López

The question for López is the same question that he had heading into what ended up being a doomed 2025 season for him: Can he be effective and productive over the course of a full season once again? López’s 2024 was exciting to see but it was also the first time he’d cleared 100 innings in a season since 2019. While his unfortunate shoulder issues robbed him of having a chance to answer those questions, it’s still fair to be concerned about what López can deliver heading into this coming season.

López’s velocity was certainly a concern when you consider that he’s coming off of a shoulder injury but it’s at least encouraging that his four-seamer velocity appears to be back to where it was back in 2024. He’s been ramping up and in his last start (that we’ve seen — López took part in simulated game at the Braves facility in North Port on Wednesday), his velocity on that fastball was at 93 and 94-mph and he even reached back and hit 96-mph with it at one point. With that being said, he’s been focusing on his breaking ball usage and that appears to be what he’s been spending most of his time working on so far in spring training.

That stuff appears to be in the same neighborhood of what he was throwing back in 2024 when he was healthy, so that’s an encouraging sign. In fact, it’s been mostly good news coming from Braves camp as far as López is concerned as he does appear to be pain-free and simply preparing for the upcoming season rather than nursing an injury or working his way through some struggles like he was during spring training last season. Hopefully that good news flows into the regular season as well — an effective trio of Sale, Strider and López could certainly help keep the Braves plenty competitive and in the mix of the NL East race.

Grant Holmes

Holmes is coming off of a season where his role expanded significantly. Unfortunately, this didn’t translate to better results as his walk rate skyrocketed and his ability to avoid giving up the long ball also declined as well. Maybe part of that was due to the elbow issues that he was dealing with that eventually ended his season and that also may explain why there’s optimism that Holmes may be able to return to the form that made him so reliable during his rookie campaign.

For what it’s worth, most of the projection models over at FanGraphs are suggesting that his issues with giving up long balls might be here to stay — he had a 1.25 HR/9 rate in 2025 and ZiPS is projecting that that’ll stay at 1.17 for 2026. However, he might be able to get one over on hitters coming into this season now that he’s apparently added a sinker to his arsenal of pitches. Holmes also has yet to allow a run during spring training so far — though as I’ll talk about later on with Bryce Elder, you should always take spring training results with a grain of salt.

Still, Holmes has it in him to be a perfectly fine and reliable starter on the back end of this rotation. We can’t forget that stretch he had from May of last season right up until his elbow started acting up on him. Holmes delivered a 2.73 ERA (65 ERA-) with a 3.63 FIP (90 FIP-) over the course of 62.2 innings pitched during that span. If that version of Holmes returns to be the fourth starter for the Braves then things should be going pretty well for Atlanta in the near future.

Bryce Elder

As of right now, it’s looking like Bryce Elder is going to be back in the rotation for the Opening Day roster here in 2026. He’s got the experience and he’s out of minor league options as well so the Braves are essentially going to exhaust all of the possibilities they have with him before eventually figuring out a way to let him go elsewhere. It also (sadly) helps his case that three different starting pitchers have suffered long-term injuries already. If any of those starters were in the mix then this might be a different conversation for Elder but for now, he’s right in the thick of the conversation.

With that being said, Elder hasn’t exactly had an encouraging performance during spring training. Now granted — Elder got shelled during camp in 2023 and ended up making the All-Star Game that year so this is to say that you should always try to take spring stats with a grain of salt. It’s also playing in his favor that he won’t be expected to shoulder as much of the load as he did last season. This is your reminder that Elder led the Braves in innings pitched last season and did so by just over 30 innings over Chris Sale. As I said to start this post, as long as that doesn’t repeat itself then the Braves should be fine and the Braves should be okay with Elder being a fifth starter for however long this may take.

Still, he will absolutely need to be on top of things if he wants to stick around in the rotation on a long-term basis. Elder may not be the most exciting pitcher in the world and it will never cease to be maddening watching him throw at least one hanger a game that’s just begging to get sent to the moon. However, the Braves would absolutely take him going out there and eating five-to-six innings a start while keeping the lineup within reach of making something happen. He’s had his moments where he looks like a very solid pitcher and if those moments turn into long stretches then he will stay around. He’ll just need to make it happen.

Organizational Depth

The Braves do have some veteran options for starting pitching in their organization but also there’s a reason why they’re projected to miss out on an Opening Day roster spot at the moment. Martín Pérez is with the organization now and if he does end up usurping Bryce Elder and making the Opening Day roster, the thing to watch out for with him would be his ability to avoid getting hit really hard in terms of exit velocity. He finished in the 78th percentile of all pitchers last season when it came to Average Exit Velocity and maybe that could help him along the way if he does end up making appearances for the Braves this season.

Meanwhile, José Suarez is also available as well. While he’s pretty good at racking up whiffs, there wasn’t much else to get excited about as far as Suarez is concerned and he’s also out of minor league options as well, so there’s that. Carlos Carrasco is here as well but if we’re being completely honest, the Braves would be in a serious boondoggle if Carrasco had to pitch innings with the big league club again.

As far as prospects go, the two obvious guys who could end up making some appearances at the big league level would be Didier Fuentes (again) and JR Ritchie. Both are projected by MLB Pipeline to have an ETA of 2026 and as I mentioned for Fuentes, this wouldn’t even be his first go-around in the bigs. With that being said, I do imagine that they’re going to give him more time to cook within the farm system and the same goes for Ritchie as well. It’s been exciting to see him compete against big league talent so far in spring but based on the fact that he’s not even on the 40-man roster, it’s also feasible to imagine the Braves giving him plenty more time to hone his craft before they bring him up. Lucas Braun and Hayden Harris are also candidates to potentially get some time in the bigs if needed in a spot start situation.

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If I didn’t answer any questions for you with this preview, that’s probably because the questions may outnumber the answers. Is this rotation perfectly capable of being one that could help push the Braves into a return to the Postseason? Absolutely. Could this all blow up in the face of the Braves and we’ll be forced to ask serious questions of Alex Anthopoulos’s decision not to add to this rotation? Once again, absolutely.

This is the position group with the highest amount of variance and volatility and it’s easy to see this going well or going completely sideways. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner’s going to have a big task on his hands when it comes to guiding this group and new manager Walt Weiss would sure like it if his first season back in the managerial seat coincides with a strong performance from the rotation.

With the 2025 Texas Rangers season having come to an end, we shall be, over the course of the offseason, taking a look at every player who appeared in a major league game for the Texas Rangers in 2025.

Today we are looking at shortstop Corey Seager.

Corey Seager had a great season for the Texas Rangers in 2025. He raked. He played really good defense. I did a post late in the 2025 season about Corey Seager and how good he had been in 2025 because I was so mad that someone called him “mid.” The only issue one can really take with Corey Seager’s 2025 season is that he was missed too much time due to injury. He had a pair of stints on the i.l. due to a hamstring strain early in the season, then missed the final month due to an appendectomy. As a result, he played in just 102 games in 2025.

At this point, I think we recognize that Corey Seager is going to miss some time in any given season due to physical issues. And Corey Seager is good enough that we can live with that. We can just assume he’ll miss two-three dozen games each season due to a hamstring issue or something similar.

Its part of what makes him having appendicitis so frustrating, though. Corey Seager is not an iron man. He’s cracked the 135 game mark three times in his career. The Baseball Gods shouldn’t punish us — shouldn’t punish him — by having him have to undergo an appendectomy during he season. The Baseball Gods should have had appendicitis strike once the season is over.

Especially given that Seager had been on a heater prior to then. Seager finished the season with a .271/.373/.487 slash line, good for a 151 OPS+ and 138 wRC+. From July 1 until his season was cut short, though, he slashed .301/.405/.552. Another month of hitting like that doesn’t just boost the Rangers offense and possibly alter their fortunes in September, it also potentially puts him in the MVP race.

When you look at Corey Seager’s 2025 Statcast page, you see a bunch of dark red. 98th percentile xwOBA, 95th percentile hard hit rate, 93rd percentile average exit velocity, 92nd percentile barrel rate. Seager’s walk rate of 13% was a career high, and placed him in the 93rd percentile. In regards to his batting profile on Statcast, the only areas where he is below 50% are launch angle sweet spot (46th percentile) and whiff percentage (27th percentile).

Corey Seager has been a Ranger for four years. He’s 14th in team history in bWAR, at 22.1. A 4 bWAR season in 2026 would move him up to 10th, passing Rusty Greer, Josh Hamilton, Alex Rodriguez and Michael Young. Most of the players ahead of him on the list currently played at least 1000 games for the Rangers — Seager is at 495 games played for Texas, just 10 more than ARod.

At the end of 2026, Corey Seager will be halfway through the 10 year, $325 million deal he signed after the 2021 season. So far, that deal doesn’t just look like a bargain — it rivals the Adrian Beltre deal as the best free agent signing the Rangers have ever made.

I am not going to pretend I don’t have concerns about Seager going forward. The problem with injury-prone players is that they tend to get injured a lot, and that doesn’t generally get better as a player ages. Maybe Seager can follow the path of Paul Molitor, another guy with a great bat who struggled to stay on the field in his 20s. Molitor managed to put that behind him for the most part in his 30s, ultimately earning a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

I believe that Corey Seager will end up in the Hall of Fame. He’s crossed the 40 WAR mark in both the f and b flavors, and will still just be 32 this season. He’s coming off a three year stretch where he’s averaged over 6 bWAR per season despite playing in just 70% of the regular season games. He has a pair of legendary World Series performances under his belt.

Corey Seager had a great 2025 season. I’m hoping for several more of those from him before it is all said and done.

Previously:

Gerson Garabito

Tyler Mahle

Kyle Higashioka

Adolis Garcia

Luis Curvelo

Alejandro Osuna

Blaine Crim

Jake Burger

Jacob Webb

Nick Ahmed

Jon Gray

Carl Edwards Jr.

Josh Jung

Leody Taveras

Dustin Harris

Marc Church

Luke Jackson

Danny Coulombe

Wyatt Langford

Dylan Moore

Michael Helman

Evan Carter

Cole Winn

Rowdy Tellez

Dane Dunning

Marcus Semien

Billy McKinney

Jose Corniell

Jonah Heim

Cody Freeman

Sam Haggerty

Jacob deGrom

Merrill Kelly

Caleb Boushley

Justin Foscue

Nathan Eovaldi

Chris Martin

Patrick Corbin

Joc Pederson

Phil Maton

You certainly won’t complain about two World Championships since 2017, but it feels like for the villain status the Houston Astros have accrued since that time that they would have more. The Dodgers may have eclipsed the Astros in 2025 as the chief bad guys of MLB, but I’ll always appreciate that Houston seemed to lean so easily into playing the heel. Not only are the no longer the top evildoers, they may not even be the top in their own division — the Mariners eventually ran them down last season after the ‘Stros finished first in the AL West every year since ‘17, save that strange 2020 campaign. Indeed, it was the first time since 2016 that a postseason occurred without the pesky Astros.

2025 record: 87-75 (2nd, AL West)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 81-81 (3rd, AL West)

Yes, that’s an 81-81 projected record, something that would be borderline unthinkable given the specter Houston has cast over the American League—and particularly the Yankees—over the last near-decade. They’ve moved from the unstoppable force to a club that needs quite a few things to go right in order to challenge the Mariners, at least on paper. Hunter Brown is as good a starter as you’ll find in baseball, following up his breakout ‘24 with a Cy Young-finalist season last year, worth nearly five wins and now expected to lead the rotation.

Following Brown is a guy I’ve always liked, but is one of the ur-examples of “boy this has to go right.” Cristian Javier has thrown just 71 innings since 2023, undergoing Tommy John surgery midway through the 2024 season. He wasn’t terrible in limited action upon his return last year, but his fastball’s down a full tick from his pre-surgery self and if a few more fly balls — which he gives up a lot of — leave the park, you can see his statline starting to get pretty ugly. Tatsuya Imai, an NPB import that I wanted the Yankees to sign, will fill out the potential top three of the rotation, and while I do think he will adjust well to MLB, there will have to be an adjustment.

Offensively, the team starts to look a little old. Cam Smith, the org’s top prospect last year, is currently projected to spend the full year in right field, and Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña is still just 28. On the other hand, both Jose Altuve and Christian Walker are on the scary side of 34 and both seemed to take major, age-related steps back last year, while Carlos Correa will turn 32 this season and was barely above league average at the plate last year. They also have an odd infield logjam that is only somewhat “remedied” by Peña beginning the year on the IL with a broken finger; Isaac Paredes is still on the team and still tailor-made for the Crawford Boxes. But owner Jim Crane’s inability — or perhaps unwillingness — to delve into the big pool of free agency has meant that the once-great core of this team is starting to slow down.

Over the last decade, I’ll absolutely have taken the Astros’ success over the Yankees’ lack thereof, but the cracks are finally starting to show. There may be one more run left in this roster as currently constructed, but they’re very clearly not as good as Seattle on paper, and FanGraphs projects them to be slightly worse than the Rangers. Houston also ended 2025 with the second-worst-ranked prospect system, so if this roster is going to get any better midseason, Crane has to find some way to open up the pockets.

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More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.

We have reached the endgame, friends. This will be the week where the cuts are made, where some options are picked up, where some decisions are made and the Phillies’ initial roster of 2026 is created. Some of these possibly logjams have been taken care of already thanks to decisions to ingest things against the rules, but some decisions still loom. Here is the final projection for said roster and what it will look like when the Texas Rangers roll into town next week.

Roster projection, 1.0
Roster projection, 2.0

Catcher – J.T. Realmuto, Rafael Marchan

I wrote last week about the ludicrous notion that Garrett Stubbs would make the roster as the 26th man/third catcher, which seems an odd topic to write about. Surely no manager would keep a light hitting catcher on the roster just because he took a few groundballs at third base or shagged a few fly balls during BP, right?

Right?

Infield – Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa, Otto Kemp, Dylan Moore

The first six players? We know they’re all making it.

And then there is Dylan Moore.

There isn’t much that Moore has done this spring that would single him out as the one to get the last spot on the roster. As of Wednesday, he was 4 for 19, a few RBI sprinkled here, a few stolen bases sprinkled there. Nothing to get excited about. Yet he fits the profile of what the team is always on the hunt for: versatility. In his career, Moore has played more or less everywhere but pitcher and catcher. In a pinch, his right handed bat can come in if Justin Crawford is struggling. He can handle other positions as well.

He’s pretty much Whit Merrifield, who made the roster at the end of spring training in 2024. I’m not sure he’s the best candidate for the job, but I would be shocked if he wasn’t the final person called into Rob Thomson’s office to get the good news.

Outfield – Brandon Marsh, Justin Crawford, Adolis Garcia

It’s quite odd to put only three outfielders on this team and it’s possible that that won’t happen. Maybe in the end, the allure of Bryan de la Cruz is too much for Rob Thomson to ignore. Maybe the idea of only have three real life outfielders is a bridge too far. If the team opted for an outfielder like de la Cruz over keeping Dylan Moore, I’d be fine with it.

I just don’t see that happening.

Designated hitter – Kyle Schwarber

Again, easiest call here.

Starting rotation – Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Painter

The same five we thought would start the season will likely actually start the season.

I’m kind of interested in Taijuan Walker for some reason. Zack Wheeler is probably closer to returning than anyone thinks, which means someone is going to have to move from the rotation. The team is usually not fond of running out six man rotations early in the season, making Walker the likely candidate to move. However, what if Andrew Painter is struggling and Walker is just doing Walker things? Would the team consider a different approach then?

Relief pitching –Jhoan Duran, Brad Keller, Jose Alvarado, Jonathan Bowlan, Tanner Banks, Kyle Backhus, Seth Johnson, Zach McCambley

The first six look set in pen right now. Johnson and McCambley are probably short term fixes until the two players projected to return from the injured list actually return.

Hot take: by season’s end, this will be a top five bullpen by WPA.

Injured list – Zack Wheeler, Orion Kerkering

Wheeler is probably close. Kerkering might not have enough time to be ready for the season opener. Best idea might be to slowplay his return and letting them keep McCambley or Johnson in the big leagues for now before they have to make a decision on either.

At this time last year, Brad Lord was one of the biggest stories of Nationals Spring Training. After working at Home Depot in the offseason, the former 18th round pick pitched his way on to the Nationals roster. Following a solid rookie season, Lord is flying much more under the radar.

He is a lock to make the roster, the only question is what role he will serve. Lord is a quiet, go with the flow guy, which makes him the perfect candidate to bounce between the rotation and bullpen. He just wants to help the team in whatever way he can. Lord told me that he will “Do whatever they need and I am always open to anything”.

As of right now, he is building up to be a starter, but he is not sure what his ultimate role will be. After the Zack Littell signing, I think he is likely to head to the bullpen. He was more effective out of the bullpen last year, posting a 2.79 ERA in that role. However, he was reliable wherever he pitched and was a rare bright spot on a brutal Nats pitching staff.

In a season that has gone about as bad as possible in most ways, I am very thankful for Brad Lord

— Paul Cubbage (@PaulCubbage23) July 29, 2025

Lord faded a bit down the stretch, but he still had a great rookie season for a guy taken in the 18th round. He posted a 4.34 ERA in 130.2 innings as a rookie. His ability to generate ground balls and keep the ball off the barrel made him a solid MLB pitcher. To get to the next level, he will have to refine some of his secondary pitches, as he was very fastball reliant last year.

He threw either a 4-seam or a sinker 66.5% of the time last year. With the Nationals cutting fastball usage, I anticipate that to go down. However, the heater should still be Lord’s bread and butter. His low arm slot and solid velocity make his fastballs quite good. He just needs another weapon that hitters have to respect.

Lord told me that one thing he was refining is his changeup. He did not make any massive changes, but the righty did tweak his changeup grip. Last year, the changeup was a solid weapon to lefties, but nothing special. This grip change could improve the pitch. Lord used the changeup to overwhelm Nolan Gorman yesterday in his Spring Training outing.

Brad Lord was telling me about how he tweaked his changeup grip when he talked yesterday. He made Nolan Gorman look silly on back to back changeups to get a strikeout

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) March 11, 2026

Yesterday was the best Lord has looked this spring. Six of his nine outs came via the ground ball, which is exactly what you want to see from him. Getting quick outs is a big part of Lord’s game. It is what makes him a solid starter and a fantastic swing man.

Lord was at his best last season in that swing man role. From late May to early August, he was dominant, posting a 2.20 ERA in that time. When he moved to the rotation full time, he got exposed a bit down the stretch. I also think he began to wear down at the end of his first MLB season.

Brad Lord with a very solid start for the Nats today going 6 IP, 4 Hits, 1 ER, 5 Ks, 19% Whiff% and lowering his season ERA to 3.28

Since May 22nd he has a 2.20 ERA and 2.97 FIP with just 13 BBs in 45 IP

The stuff isn't electric but he can get outs in both rotation and bullpen pic.twitter.com/jAIsB6Quya

— Jackson Scudder (@jscud23) August 9, 2025

Whatever his role is, Brad Lord will be a key piece for the Nats pitching staff. He is a guy who can get outs in a variety of roles, which is very important in the modern game. While he is unlikely to start the season in the rotation, he will be the next man up when injuries inevitably hit. 

Last season, he made 48 appearances with 19 starts. I would not be surprised if we saw something like that again. He can just do whatever the manager asks of him, which is incredibly valuable. Brad Lord’s name is not on the tip of fans tongues like it was last year, but I think he is poised to be a pivotal piece of the Nats pitching staff once again.

Morning, all!

Chris Young says that he’s seeing indications that the Rangers have had a better approach at the plate this spring and he hopes that means the offense won’t be repeating the futility of 2025.

Evan Grant hosted a Q&A where he answered questions about how the bullpen will shake out, whether Ezequiel Duran will make the team, and the expected outfield alignment.

Shawn McFarland continues his prospect countdown with number 13, RHP Leandro Lopez.

It just wouldn’t be spring if we weren’t reading articles wondering if this is finally the season a player is finally as good as they were three years ago.

The experts are predicting big things for Rangers’ pitching prospect Caden Scarborough

Arguably the most consistent debate in Kansas City sports over the last two years is about who should be the Kansas City Royals’ leadoff hitter. After shuffling around multiple guys in the spot in 2024, the Royals went out and acquired Jonathan India last season to explicitly fill the job. That didn’t quite work, and so now Matt Quatraro is mulling over five different players to be the team’s main leadoff guy.

Unfortunately, in addition to being the most consistent debate in Kansas City sports, this particular conversation is also, I think, the stupidest. There is one and only one answer to who the Royals’ leadoff hitter should be, and that person is Bobby Witt Jr.

I’m not going to go into extreme detail here, but let’s cover why this is the case. Most importantly, the first hitter in the lineup sees the most plate appearances; over the course of a full year, a team’s leadoff spot in the lineup sees about 760 plate appearances with each subsequent spot seeing about 18 fewer PAs. Secondarily, the first hitter in the lineup is the only hitter you can guarantee a clean base with no one in front of them.

As a result, there are three schools of thought with leadoff hitters. One is that your leadoff hitter should be the guy with the best on base percentage on your team because he gets a chance to get on base before anybody else; let’s call this the Alex Gordon School. Two is that your leadoff hitter should be fast to take advantage of open bases; let’s call this the Rickey Henderson School. Three is that your leadoff hitter should simply be your best hitter; let’s call this the Shohei Ohtani School.

The reason why Witt should lead off for the Royals is because it literally doesn’t matter what school of thought you ascribe to. Who’s got the best OBP ability on the team? Bob, no question. Who is the fastest player on the team? Bob, again. Who’s the most talented overall hitter on the team? Bob, by a rather huge margin.

Historically, Witt has hit second, which is the second-best place for him. Hitting second makes it so that he always has a chance of coming to the plate with someone on base. But Kansas City’s problem is that Witt is so much better than anyone else on the team that it just doesn’t make sense for him to lose out on those 18 plate appearances along with the other elite table-setting benefits that Witt provides. Remember: Witt does hit home runs, but he’s a doubles machine who leads all of Major League Baseball over the last two seasons.

All of this has sort of made it frustrating to see JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro waffle on who should be the leadoff hitter between Witt and literally any other inferior option. So far, I’ve chalked it up to Bob simply not wanting to hit leadoff. Baseball players are a superstitious bunch, and Lord knows that Witt has earned enough leeway to say that he prefers hitting second and stick to it.

But something rumbles, y’all. During the World Baseball Classic, Witt has been leading off.

Tonight's starting lineup against Mexico! pic.twitter.com/ZWYec0L6qh

— USA Baseball (@USABaseball) March 9, 2026

Witt as Team USA’s leadoff hitter is significantly more up for debate considering the hilarious offensive firepower he’s paired with. If he didn’t want to hit leadoff, he wouldn’t have to. I mean, what are we gonna do, complain about Aaron freaking Judge hitting at the top spot of the lineup otherwise?

But Witt is indeed hitting leadoff. And it’s going well; he’s contributed on offense and on defense for Team USA.

So my hope, my prayer, is that Witt realizes his love of hitting leadoff for Team USA and brings that love of leadoff to Kansas City. Then, we might close this debate for good as long as Witt may reign with the Royals. Amen.

Hello everyone!

The Mariners continued their run as the Cactus League’s sad sack losers, falling prey to the Rockies in an 11-7 slugfest. The good news is Matt Brash made his spring debut and appears to be on track for an Opening Day return.

If you were the Mariners, would you ever consider stretching Brash back out as a starter at any point? I highly doubt they’d consider it, to be clear — but would you?

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, Bryce Miller exited a planned bullpen session as he felt some renewed discomfort in his oblique. The Mariners are not planning to shut him down from throwing at this time, but it seems unlikely he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
• The Mariners announced their slate of new menu options at T-Mobile Park this summer. I’m jealous of all of you who live in the Seattle area and will get to try some of these delectables!
• Former LL staffer Patrick Dubuque wrote about the Cal Raleigh-Randy Arozarena beef as if it were a Jane Austen novel in his latest post for Baseball Prospectus. ($)
• Miles Mastrobuoni’s run with the upstart Italian squad appears to be at an end.

Italy infielder Miles Mastrobuoni is leaving the team after tonight to return back to the Seattle Mariners camp after injuring his calf muscle in their game against USA.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 11, 2026

In the World Baseball Classic…

• The dream tourney run for Team Italy rolled on with an easy 9-1 victory over Mexico, punching their ticket to the next round and securing the U.S. a spot there too.
• Team Canada is advancing to the quarterfinal for the first time ever after a 7-2 win against Cuba gave them the top seed out of Pool A.
• The Dominican Republic continued its dominant run in the tournament with a 7-5 win over a talented Venezuela squad, giving the DR the top seed out of Pool D.
• For Team Venezuela, the World Baseball Classic is giving the team’s players a reason to celebrate and hope during a time of political upheaval.

Around the league…

• Astros closer Josh Hader is set to begin the season on the injured list while he recovers from a biceps issue.
• Ian Cundall at Baseball America listed ten pitching prospects with intriguing velocity increases this spring, with Ryan Sloan headlining the bunch. ($)
• Smarty Jones at The Good Phight wrote that “lineup protection” clearly isn’t the issue for Bryce Harper given how poorly he’s performed during the WBC.
• Congratulations to fellow LL staffer Ryan Blake, who is now a contributor over at Fangraphs! In his first piece, he wrote about the slow, sad death of Mike Trout’s career amidst the apathetic Angels.
• Ben Clemens at Fangraphs wonders how long it will be until someone other than Aaron Judge is the best hitter in the sport.

There are many players to grace a professional baseball diamond who have also had controversy overtake their careers in Major League Baseball. Some have put on a Yankees uniform at different times in their careers, and some have even had their Hall of Fame chances ruined because of said off-field issues.

Darryl Strawberry’s career is no different, and while he didn’t spend the majority of his time in MLB donning white and navy pinstripes, he still made an impact for the Yankees during their glory ’90s years. But his terrific tenure in The Show also came with a large elephant in the room.

Darryl Eugene Strawberry
Born: March 12, 1962 (Los Angeles, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 1995-1999

Strawberry didn’t have the easiest childhood, as his father Henry was abusive to both him and his mother, Ruby. The police took Henry away when Darryl was 10, and he soon flourished as an up-and-coming athlete in the LA area. He excelled at baseball, basketball, and football, and would sign a letter of intent to play college baseball at Oklahoma State University. That all changed when his star was so bright that the New York Mets selected him with the first overall pick in the 1980 MLB Draft.

It took three seasons for Strawberry to reach the Mets roster, and he was already receiving otherworldly comparisons. He debuted against the Reds on May 6, 1983, when the just-turned 21-year-old went 0-for-4 with two walks and a stolen base in a 7-4 Mets win. From there, the 6-foot-6, 190-pound outfielder’s extensive career was off and running.

Strawberry’s first season in the majors was a success, as he imposed his will on opposing pitchers. He played in 122 games for the Mets and slashed .257/.336/.512 for an OPS+ of 134, smashing 26 home runs along the way. He won the National League Rookie of the Year Award with 18 of 24 first-place votes.

While Strawberry’s sophomore season wasn’t quite as dominant, he was still good enough to earn an All-Star nod, the first of eight-straight in his career. In 1985, he hit a career-high (to that point) 29 home runs and posted a career-high .947 OPS, but after tearing ligaments in his thumb while making a catch during a game, he missed a significant chunk of the Mets’ season and played only 111 games.

The Mets of 1986 were a juggernaut. There’s no other way to say it. And Strawberry was one of the heads of the beast, alongside catcher Gary Carter, first baseman Keith Hernandez, and Straw’s fellow young star, ace Dwight Gooden. In 136 games, he slashed .259/.358/.507 for an OPS+ of 139 and hit 27 home runs for his fourth straight season of 25+ bombs, good for an All-Star nod and a Mets franchise record 108 wins for the team. Strawberry played in 13 postseason games between the NLCS against the Astros and the infamous World Series against the Red Sox, recording multiple clutch hits, including a major home run in Game 3 of the NLCS and another in Game 7 of the World Series. He was a champion already at 24 years old, but he also already had a drug problem.

Strawberry’s best individual seasons came from 1987 to 1991. In 1987, he finished the year with a 5.5 fWAR, the second-highest of his career. He joined the 30/30 Club with 39 homers and 36 steals, tallied 104 RBI’s, and finished with a .981 OPS. All of this resulted in finishing sixth in the National League MVP voting, and in 1988, Strawberry hit a league-leading 39 home runs again with a league-leading .545 slugging percentage and .911 OPS. He also registered 101 RBI’s and was the NL MVP runner-up, only trailing Kirk Gibson of the Dodgers (who dispatched the Mets in a six-game NLCS). He also took home his first of two Silver Slugger awards in his career.

Following a 1989 campaign that saw another All-Star appearance (but a downgrade compared to his previous two years), Strawberry’s 1990 output was revitalized, bashing 37 home runs, tallying a career-high 108 RBI’s, and a career-high 6.5 fWAR. He finished third in NL MVP voting and was awarded another Silver Slugger. And 1990 was also the final season he would don a Mets uniform. In the offseason, he went on to sign a five-year $22.25 million contract with his hometown Dodgers, and while his 1991 season was still above average, it was the start of the downturn of a once-great power-hitter’s career.

In 1992 and 1993, Strawberry played a combined 75 games for the Dodgers and was released in 1994 by the team after failing to show up to a game. He then joined the Giants for the year, where he only played in 29 games.

Strawberry was suspended at the beginning of the 1995 season after testing positive for cocaine. Yankees owner George Steinbrenner decided to see what he had left, and Strawberry joined New York’s other team as a lefty DH/bench option. He posted a 112 OPS+ as the Yankees snapped their 14-year playoff drought with a Wild Card spot, but he got just two at-bats in the ALDS loss to Seattle and remained unsigned for the entire offseason.

Although that could have been the end of Strawberry’s life in baseball, he found new life in an unlikely locale. Given a shot with the Northern League’s St. Paul Saints, he obliterated Indy ball to such a preposterous degree—a .435 average and 18 homers in 29 games—that Steinbrenner couldn’t resist. He ended up re-signing with the Yankees in July 1996 and soon became the primary left fielder for the eventual champions.

Strawberry had a three-homer game, walked off the White Sox with the 300th bomb of his career, and while he was up-and-down in the playoffs, he slugged a trio of homers to help dispatch the Orioles in the ALCS.

Strawberry helped lead the Yankees to three World Series titles during his time in the Bronx, and also struck up a friendship with budding star Derek Jeter. Despite the limited playing time—outside of 1998, when he played 101 games and hit 24 home runs—he posted some excellent numbers in pinstripes and was beloved in that clubhouse. Strawberry’s career slash line of .255/.362/.502 and 119 OPS+ in 239 games was more than good enough to be an above-average piece off the bench.

In ’98, Straw even turned the cool trick of getting two pinch-hit grand slams in the same season.

For everything that happened in Strawberry’s turbulent life, he also always maintained that memorable buggy-whip swing.

Strawberry was unable to join the Yankees’ World Series run in ’98, as he was diagnosed with colon cancer in the middle of the ALDS. He recovered and prepared for the ’99 campaign before his old demons struck again. He was arrested for possession of cocaine and soliciting an undercover cop posing as a prostitute. MLB suspended him 140 days and he did not return to the Yankees until the final months of the season. Strawberry showed little signs of rust, hitting .327 in 24 games and belting apair of key playoff homers as the Yanks repeated as champions.

Strawberry’s off-field drug issues continued. He tested positive for cocaine in February 2000 while attending spring training. Commissioner Bud Selig demanded Strawberry leave the team while waiting for a decision on the suspension length. After the test news came out, Selig announced that Strawberry would be suspended for the entire 2000 campaign, and, as a result, his MLB career was over. It was a celebrated one, featuring four World Series titles, a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Sluggers, and eight All-Star nods. But for many fans, it felt like he left a lot on the table, too.

The first few years after Strawberry’s retirement were a journy through the wilderness and multiple more arrests. Thankfully, he did eventually find sobriety, and it has reportedly lasted over two decades. The Mets just retired his No. 18 in 2024, and he’s often attended Yankees Old-Timers’ Days and team reunions. Here’s wishing Darryl a happy 64th birthday.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

When the 2025 season ended, there was a narrative espoused by the Mets’ front office that one of the goals of the offseason was to focus on run prevention. This narrative more or less went out the window with the signing of Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette, but the concept endures in the trade of Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers in exchange for Marcus Semien.

The deal was a palatable one for both sides because it was a swap of contracts that have not aged well, and for players who filled organizational needs for their new teams. Semien, the reigning American League Gold Glove winner at second base, is entering his fifth year of a seven year, $175 million deal. His deal has two fewer years remaining on it than Nimmo’s does. His story is a well-known one: a former shortstop who excelled defensively when he switched to second and who, after a few boffo offensive seasons, has cooled off with the bat considerably.

All of that somewhat belies what a useful player Semien still is. Over his past two seasons, he ‘s been worth 7.4 bWAR with an OPS+ of 103 and 97, respectively. Obviously, much of his value came from his defensive skills, but he was still the 13th most valuable second baseman in baseball last year. And while, yes, Semien is entering his age 36 season, he’s just three years removed from a season when he came in third place in the AL MVP voting and when he slugged 29 home run and 100 RBIs. It wasn’t his best season (that would be 2019’s 8.4 bWAR season), but it was a very valuable one.

But let’s pretend that 2025 is more where he is offensively for the last three years of his contract with the Mets. If he can provide quality defense up the middle and hit 15ish home runs while playing just about every day, the Mets’ offense should be able to more than carry him at the bottom of the lineup. That’s still a trade the Mets likely make, even if Semien isn’t quite who he used to be.

But the change of scenery, protection in the lineup, and his underlying skills could come together in another 2022 season for Semien. And if it does, the Mets’ lineup will be truly formidable.

Playing shortstop is a point of pride.

Even now, years later, it still visits me in dreams — the slow chopper that turns into a barehand play; the diving backhand deep in the hole; the thrill of a perfectly timed double play. Shortstop lives at the heart of the diamond. Every ground ball feels like it might find you. Every pop fly is yours to claim. You call teammates off, direct the rhythm of the infield, and for a moment, you feel like the quiet general of the defense. 

When I had to move to second base in college, it was devastating. Shortstop wasn’t just a position I played — it was the one I loved. 

Because I played shortstop, those were always the players I watched the closest. Luckily for Rockies fans, there have been some excellent ones to watch over the years — from Troy Tulowitzki’s all-around brilliance to Trevor Story’s power and athleticism. 

Today, the position now belongs to Ezequiel Tovar. 

This is a snapshot of where the Rockies’ shortstop position stands entering 2026 — anchored by Tovar’s elite defense and shaped largely by what happens if he isn’t on the field. 

At a glance

The Rockies’ outlook at shortstop rests on two pillars: 

• Elite defense. Tovar is already one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. 
• Volatile offense. His aggressive swing decisions create both upside and inconsistency. 

Tovar enters the 2026 season at 24 years old (turning 25 on Aug. 1) and looks to be the long-term answer at shortstop in Colorado. 

His breakout season came in 2024, when he led the National League with 45 doubles, hit 26 home runs, and won a Gold Glove. That performance cemented his reputation as a cornerstone defender and one of the most dynamic young players on the roster. 

Defense remains the foundation of Tovar’s value. According to Statcast, he recorded 15 Outs Above Average at shortstop in both 2023 and 2024, placing him among the elite defenders at the position. Even in a shortened 2025 season, he still produced 3 OAA, continuing to provide positive defensive value. 

That 2025 campaign was limited to 95 games due to a hip injury in April and an oblique strain in June, which helps explain the offensive regression. But even in that abbreviated season, the underlying plate-discipline metrics moved slightly in the right direction. 

Tovar’s offensive profile is defined by aggression. In 2025 he posted a 41.1% chase rate and a 60.7% swing rate, both dramatically higher than MLB averages (28.4% and 47.3%). That approach limits walks and can create streakiness at the plate. 

However, there were encouraging signs beneath the surface. His walk rate improved from 3.3% in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025, while his strikeout rate dropped from 28.8% to 25.1%. They are small steps, but meaningful ones for a hitter whose biggest developmental hurdle is swing decisions. 

The raw power is also real. Statcast measured Tovar’s average exit velocity at 88.8 mph in 2024 and 89.4 mph in 2025, with a maximum exit velocity of 112.5 mph. Those numbers support the “sneaky pop” profile Rockies fans have already seen when he’s locked in. 

Another encouraging indicator is Tovar’s contact quality. Statcast’s Launch Angle Sweet-Spot percentage (LA Sweet-Spot %) tracks how often a hitter produces launch angles between 8° and 32°, the range most associated with productive contact. Tovar ranked in the 90th percentile in this metric, suggesting that when he squares the ball up, the underlying contact profile supports his potential for continued power production. 

The Rockies clearly believe in him. Tovar is signed through 2030 with a club option for 2031, a deal that could look increasingly team-friendly if his offensive game continues to evolve. 

2026 Outlook

FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projection system forecasts roughly 21 home runs and about 3 fWAR for Tovar in 2026. 

Across projection systems, the expected range generally falls between about 2.1 and 3.1 WAR, reflecting both the stability of his defensive value and the uncertainty surrounding his offensive approach. 

That defensive floor is important. Statcast’s Fielding Run Value credits Tovar with 13 defensive runs in 2023, 16 in 2024, and 3 in 2025, reinforcing the idea that even during a down year he remains a positive contributor in the field. 

But if the approach at the plate continues trending in the right direction — fewer chase swings, a few more walks, and continued gap power — the upside grows considerably. That’s where the All-Star conversation begins to enter the picture. 

Depth Behind Tovar

Shortstop depth in the Rockies organization largely revolves around Tovar staying healthy. 

Behind him, the options are mostly contingency plans rather than clear everyday alternatives. 

Ryan Ritter – Ritter has the athleticism and defensive ability to play shortstop, though questions about his offensive consistency remain. He has already filled in during past Tovar absences but currently profiles best as depth or a utility option. Ritter’s defensive ability is far ahead of his offense at this point, but Ritter is absolutely destroying the ball this spring.

Willi Castro – Signed to a two-year deal before the 2026 season, Castro provides versatility across the diamond and could handle shortstop in short stretches if needed. Castro has tallied over 1,200 innings at short in his big league career to mixed results.

Nicky Lopez (NRI) – A glove-first veteran invited to spring training as a non-roster player. If he makes the club, it would likely be as a defensive specialist capable of covering shortstop late in games. 

Cole Carrigg (No. 4 PuRP) – Carrigg is currently playing shortstop for Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic, a valuable opportunity to continue developing the position. Within the Rockies system, however, he is viewed more as a multi-position athlete than a long-term major league shortstop. 

The broader point is simple: If Tovar misses significant time, the Rockies’ defensive stability up the middle takes a noticeable hit. 

In the Pipeline 

At the top of the Rockies’ shortstop prospect ladder sits Ethan Holliday (No. 2 PuRP), one of the organization’s most exciting prospects and the fourth-overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. The son of former Rockies star Matt Holliday, he enters the system with enormous offensive upside. The main question is whether he remains at shortstop long term or eventually shifts to third base. 

Beyond Holliday, the shortstop pipeline is still developing rather than overflowing with top-tier talent. Ashly Andujar (No. 20 PuRP), a young switch-hitting infielder signed out of the Dominican Republic, has shown strong bat-to-ball skills and defensive instincts in the lower minors but still needs to add strength as he climbs the ladder. 

Other names deeper in the system include Andy Perez and Dyan Jorge. Each shows defensive potential at shortstop but remains far from the major leagues. 

For the foreseeable future, the Rockies’ stability at shortstop depends on Tovar holding down the middle of the diamond. 

The Big Picture

There is a lot of weight on Tovar’s shoulders, but he doesn’t need to be a superstar. 

His defense already provides a valuable foundation. If the plate discipline continues to inch forward and the power remains part of his profile, Tovar could develop into one of the better all-around shortstops in the National League. 

But he doesn’t have to reach those heights to be integral to the Rockies. 

If he simply continues progressing — staying healthy, refining the approach, and anchoring the defense — Ezequiel Tovar can be exactly what the Rockies need him to be: A steady force through the rebuild, and a core piece of the next winning team in Colorado. 

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Over the last five years, we’ve written often about the outstanding job A.J. Hinch and his staff does in terms of getting the most out of a good, but far from dominant roster. From pinch-hitting, to bullpen usage, to creativity when things go wrong, to details like taking the extra base, the Tigers continue to do a lot of little things right to paper over weaknesses and play to their strengths. Sports Info Solutions gave us another example in an article written by Mark Simon on Monday.

Sports Info Solutions provides data and analysis to teams in many different sports, and has been a leader in that field over the last decade in particular. They are the creators of the defensive runs saved (DRS) metric used by FanGraphs and many other sites to evaluate team and player defense. And the defensive metrics on the Tigers the past two seasons are fairly eye-opening.

In 2024, the Tigers were a combined negative four defensive runs saved if you add up each players” individual DRS numbers. Yet the team was plus 40 in defensive runs saved in defensive positioning, far outweighing the modest collection of defenders’ actual ability.

In 2025? The Tigers were a negative 11 runs saved on defense individualy. And yet their positioning saved 47 runs, for a net +36 runs saved. Pretty impressive.

Defensive runs saved, on a player by player basis, functions much like Statcast’s outs above average. Each play made or not made is judged by where the fielder is on the field at contact, how fast the ball is moving and its trajectory, figuring the most direct intercept point, and judging difficulty of plays by those means. However, DRS also visually grades plays so that unique factors, like a baserunner crossing in front of a defender and blocking their view momentarily, the ball changing direction or off of the pitcher’s mound or the edge of the infield grass, and other factors that the raw data can’t pick up, can be taken into account. Statcast is much more straightforward. The ball was hit to this spot, this hard, and did the fielder take a good route, have the range to get to the spot, and did they make the play cleanly.

Defensive statistics are never going to be perfect, and their are valid arguments for both DRS and OAA. Still, actual defensive value is tricky to evaluate, particularly when you don’t have several years worth of data. Personally I tend to just rough it out between them, figuring that somewhere between each number is likely closest to the truth.

The difference here is that Statcast doesn’t issue a positioning metric for teams. Essentially, Sports Info Solutions is adding another layer of defensive analysis by grading how close to where the ball is actually hit a given team’s fielders are over the course of a season. Teams that routinely position their defense best in accordance with each individual hitters’ tendencies, have the advantage of being in a better starting position to make each given play.

I’m simplifying the whole methodology here, so if you’d like to learn more, read the full article here, with notes on individual players. You can go deeper and check out Sports Info Solutions numerous articles on the topic on their site, though they keep their full methodology under wraps.

Of course, this isn’t solely about George Lombard and Joey Cora positioning their fielders in accordance with the opposing teams’ spray charts produced by the Tigers’ analytics department. There’s also the component of getting the hitter to hit the ball where you want it to go, or to strike out. This is a group effort that also leans heavily on Chris Fetter’s game-planning and pitch sequencing acumen, and translating all that to his catchers to call the game.

Fetter and his staff’s ability to combine pitching strategy and defensive positioning to exploit hitter tendencies was a big part of his work with the Michigan Wolverines, and it’s part of the secret sauce that made him a sought after coach at the major league level. A.J. Hinch and the Tigers did well to land him, and as we’ve seen, the Tigers results often seem better than the raw pitching talent they’ve had over the last five seasons. This despite the fact that outside of Tarik Skubal and a few others, they haven’t actually made that many young pitchers radically better in isolation.

What’s interesting about these results, is that they suggest that the Tigers can make average defenders play like above average ones by positioning them better and getting the ball hit to that position more regularly. You might grade negative in DRS, but if you’re routinely being positioned closer to spot you need to be to make a play, the team is in good shape even if your individual defensive grades aren’t actually good. The plays you’re required to make are just made easier from the start.

Managers often talk about putting their players in the best position to succeed, but Hinch and his coaching staff have taken this very literally, to the Tigers’ benefit.