Category: Baseball

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The Tony Vitello era careened off the tracks before it ever truly got started, leaving the San Francisco Giants with a 3-8 record and in desperate need of a win as they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. 

Christopher Sanchez takes the mound for the visitors, while Robbie Ray gets the nod for the home team. 

My Phillies vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 7 are targeting San Francisco to get back on track at a good price in a low-scoring contest.

Who will win Phillies vs Giants today: Giants (+132)

The Philadelphia Phillies have been anemic against left-handed pitching, posting a measly 59 wRC+ and .165 AVG in 112 at-bats. 

Robbie Ray performed admirably at Oracle Park last year (3.50 FIP) and has had plenty of juice in his first two starts (108 Stuff+), so he forecasts for a strong outing. 

Facing Cristopher Sanchez is never fun, but he’s down one mph on his fastball and has been unusually hittable (10th percentile average exit velocity, 14th percentile hard-hit rate).

For as bad as the San Francisco Giants have been against RHP, the lineup is close to league-average against southpaws.

COVERS INTEL: Ray has found success against Philadelphia’s lineup in the past, holding their projected lineup to 20-for-87 (.230) with 30 strikeouts.

Phillies vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-105)

These are two quality starting pitchers, facing two lineups that have had their fair share of troubles — Philadelphia against lefties and San Francisco in general. The Giants have plated four or fewer runs in nine of their 11 games. 

Although the surface-level statistics may not show it, these are two quality bullpens. The Phillies have the best SIERA in relief (2.69) but a 4.17 ERA, and the Giants have a quality 3.81 SIERA but a grotesque 4.93 ERA.

Both of those bullpen ERAs are due for positive regression, creating value in the Under in the meantime.

Phillies vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia -156 | San Francisco +132
• Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | San Francisco +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7

Phillies vs Giants trend

Philadelphia has hit the Under in 44 of its last 79 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Giants.

How to watch Phillies vs Giants and game info

Phillies vs Giants latest injuries

Phillies vs Giants weather

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The latest news on your Houston Astros and from around MLB:

The Astros had a plan for yesterday’s game, a game that would have been started by Hunter Brown had he not been injured. The plan didn’t seem like a good one, and it was executed even worse:

The most damning information in this article would be these:

Houston’s coaching staff intended to deploy two pitchers against the Colorado Rockies: Weiss and a 27-year-old right-hander named Cody Bolton. Neither right-hander is stretched out beyond 65 or so pitches, but the team hoped piggybacking them could cover 27 outs and conserve an overworked group of relievers.

Weiss is still learning the nuances of relieving and being ready at any moment of a game. Before this season, he had not made a professional relief appearance since 2023. Weiss sported a 3.16 ERA across 46 starts during the past two KBO seasons.

If Weiss was going to pitch Monday regardless of his role, logic suggested starting him for no other reason than allowing him to maintain his routine. That Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller tabbed Bolton, and not Weiss, to start the game seemed curious. Bolton had never started a major-league game, but had made 35 relief appearances. He finished Houston’s sixth game of the season with three scoreless innings.

With a 3×5 performance, Jose Altuve picked up career hit 2400. (and 2401 and 2402).

Cam Smith’s 462-foot HR was the ninth longest in Astros history. Here are the Top 8:

The Astros will go forward with plans for a 6-man rotation starting April 10:

Cody Bolton stayed in the game after taking a laser to the back in the first inning. The Astros sent him for imaging after the game as a precaution.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good:

Do the Angels have an ace in Jose Soriano?

This hasn’t happened in over 30 years!

I’m willing to bet Jung Hoo Lee has had worse job requirements:

She’s a lefty!

The Nationals hit 3 eighth inning HRs to take the lead on the Cardinals. (Spoiler Alert: Nats won.)

Cal Raleigh vs Jacob deGrom. 12 pitches. Epic Battle. But in the end, there can be only one:

Willson Contreras vs Brandon Woodruff. The rivalry you didn’t know you needed, until now.

Contreras later came in spikes up on a slide into 2nd:

Contreras was still hot after the game:

Brewers’ Christian Yelich essentially called Contreras act tired (start 2:22):

Woodruff called Contreras’ actions a big act:

Max Scherzer only lasted 2 innings yesterday before he removed due to forearm discomfort, but Blue Jays think he will make his next start.

This is terrific accidental comedy. The word anos without the tilde above the “n” doesn’t mean years, it means something very, very different. Something dead center of where you sit down. But Happy Birthday!

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox face off in the second game of a three-game set at Fenway Park on Tuesday night.

Milwaukee took the series opener, and my Brewers vs. Red Sox predictions are backing the visitors to win again behind a strong effort from Jacob Misiorowski.

Here are my best free MLB picks for this interleague showdown on April 7.

Who will win Brewers vs Red Sox today: Brewers moneyline (+136)

The 2-8 Boston Red Sox are favored because ace Garrett Crochet is on the mound, but the difference in the starters isn't as big as you might think. 

Milwaukee Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski has allowed three runs on six hits with 18 strikeouts through 11 innings. The analytics indicate those numbers are sustainable with the hard-throwing 24-year-old allowing an xBA of .167. 

Milwaukee has a big edge with its lineup ranked third in the majors in OPS (.813) and second in runs per game (6.80).

With the Brewers boasting an 8-2 record, they have value as road dogs. 

COVERS INTEL: Misiorowski is in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%). Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and dead-last in whiff rate (33.3%).

Brewers vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-110)

Crochet pitched to a sparkling 2.59 ERA in 32 starts last year. He's coming off an ugly start, but that was against a Houston team that usually crushes lefties.

The 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up should bounce back with a better performance at home.

Misiorowski and a strong Milwaukee bullpen will also shut down a Boston lineup that averages just 3.60 runs per game with an OPS of .682. 

Misiorowski struggles with control at times, but the Red Sox are just 26th in walk rate and will chase pitches outside the strike zone.

Brewers vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Milwaukee +138 | Boston -144
• Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-163) | Boston -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+133) | Under 7.5 (-138)

Brewers vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have gone Under their team total in 48 of their last 78 games at home (+13.55 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Red Sox.

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Monday night’s game between the Brewers and Red Sox got chippy out of nowhere.

With two runners on and no outs, Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras stepped to the plate against veteran starter Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff’s first pitch was a high-and-tight sinker just a couple of inches inside. Contreras, known for crowding the strike zone, couldn’t get his hands away in time.

It wasn’t immediately clear whether Contreras was actually hit by the pitch, so Milwaukee elected to challenge the ruling on the field. Replay evidence wasn’t strong enough to overturn the call, so Contreras was awarded first base.

MLB.com reporter Adam McCalvy later asked Brewers catcher William Contreras, Willson’s younger brother, whether or not he thought the pitch actually hit the elder Contreras:

Wm. Contreras:“They said it hit him, so it’s a hit-by-pitch.”

McCalvy:From (your) crouch at home plate, did (you) hear anything?

Wm. Contreras:“No.”

Take a look for yourself:

Contreras was irate, slowly walking down the first base line while shouting at Woodruff. He didn’t stop upon reaching the bag, with two Red Sox coaches and first base umpire John Tumpane getting in front of Contreras to try and calm him down.

The next batter was cleanup hitter Wilyer Abreu, who hit a grounder to second baseman Brice Turang for a potential double play ball. Turang flipped the ball to shortstop David Hamilton, who was covering second. As Hamilton tried to turn the double play, Contreras came in with his spikes up, ripping up his pant leg and leaving him doubled over in pain.

Contreras explained his reaction in a postgame interview.

“It’s the 24th time (the Brewers) have hit me in my career. It’s the sixth time that (Brandon Woodruff) has hit me, and they always say, ‘I’m not trying to hit you.’ That gets old. So next time they hit me again, I’m going to take one of them out. That’s a message.”

It’s pretty clear what Contreras is getting at. He thinks the Brewers are doing this on purpose. That’s… a pretty serious claim, one that naturally leads to a question:

Are the Brewers doing this on purpose?

First, let’s start with a few simpler questions.

Does Willson Contreras get hit a lot?

Contreras, a lifelong National League player until this season, has ranked in the top 10 in the NL in hit-by-pitches in each of the last six seasons.

What about on a per-game basis?

Contreras has played 1,089 career Major League Baseball games, totaling 4,318 plate appearances. He’s been hit by 131 pitches. In other words, Contreras has been hit by a pitch in about 12% of the games he’s played in.

Since 2018, hit-by-pitch rates have been rising. The average batter now gets plunked 10 times per 1,000 plate appearances, or 1%. Contreras has been plunked 131 times in 4,318 plate appearances, or roughly 3%.

So yes, he gets hit by pitches a lot — three times as much as the average player.

Contreras is also widely considered to be a player who “crowds the plate.” He stands very close to the plate, so pitches that might not hit someone with a more open stance are more likely to hit him.

Does Woodruff hit a lot of batters?

Brandon Woodruff has hit 33 batters over 755 2/3 career innings pitched. Per Baseball Reference, pitchers average about 0.04 hit batters per inning. 33 divided by 755 2/3 works out to 0.044 hit batters per inning, or just slightly more than average.

It’s worth noting that four of the six Woodruff v. Contreras hit-by-pitches have come on sinkers, while the other two have come on fastballs. Both pitches are characterized by arm-side run, which means they break in on right-handed batters. If Woodruff misses with a sinker a couple of inches off the plate, he’s more likely to hit Contreras than he is the average batter. As you can see on the scatter plot of all six hit-by-pitches, only one of them is an egregious miss.

To quote Bob Uecker, these all look like he tried the corner and missed.

Does Contreras get hit by pitches more when facing the Brewers?

Contreras has been hit 24 times in 468 career plate appearances against the Brewers, which works out to 5.1% of the time. So, also yes. Here’s the pitch chart of every Contreras hit-by-pitch against Milwaukee:

The vast majority of these pitches are sinkers or four-seam fastballs, which isn’t a coincidence. The Brewers are a smart organization. The conventional approach against a hitter who crowds the plate is to establish the inner half early by throwing hard pitches that run in on the hands, forcing the hitter to back off the plate while creating weak contact — jam shots, broken bats, etc. When you’re consistently attacking inside with pitches that have arm-side run, misses tend to come further in than intended.

I also want to point out that none of these pitches are at the head (dirty, potentially intentional) or feet (more respectful, but still potentially intentional). All of these pitches — save for that Devin Williams changeup, which just looks like a miss — follow the pattern that you would expect when a pitcher is attacking Contreras. Tried the corner and missed.

So, are these hit-by-pitches intentional, as Contreras implies?

Probably not, no. But I did just say the Brewers are a smart organization, and it would be very smart of the Brewers to disguise their malicious beanings of Contreras to avoid repercussions.

I don’t get paid enough to break down every career Contreras vs. Brewers hit-by-pitch, so let’s look at every Contreras vs. Woodruff hit by pitch:

Contreras v. Woodruff: A Brief Beef History

Twitter has everything, including a video of every time Woodruff has drilled Contreras:

HBP #1: The catcher sets up on the inside corner, Woodruff misses his spot by a few inches, Contreras is in on the plate and gets hit in the elbow. Verdict: Unintentional.

HBP #2: Contreras is off the plate a bit more; it looks like the ball just gets away from Woody. The catcher sets up low and inside, but he misses high and inside. If the Brewers were trying to bean Contreras, they probably would have set up high and inside to provide more plausible deniability. Verdict: Unintentional.

HPB #3: Contreras is in on the plate, the catcher sets up high and inside, Woodruff’s pitch comes in at the height of the catcher’s glove but misses the plate by a couple of inches, Contreras stands there and takes it off the elbow guard. If Contreras had tried to get out of the way at all, it wouldn’t have hit him. That’s not a bad thing; the smart thing to do as a baseball player is to take the free base, but it also provides more evidence that this hit-by-pitch was, in fact, unintentional.

HBP #4: Contreras’ elbow is basically on the plate, and the pitch is close enough that he swings at it. Verdict: Unintentional.

HBP #5: It’s a little hard to tell because of the angle this was filmed at, but it doesn’t appear that Contreras is egregiously close to the plate. However, thanks to Statcast, you can tell that the ball looks to be right off the edge of the batter’s box when it hit him. Verdict: Unintentional.

Conclusion

The Brewers do not have a vendetta against Willson Contreras. They are not trying to intentionally injure the older brother of their All-Star catcher. They are trying to win baseball games.

So, we’re just over 10 games into the season for the Atlanta Braves and the on-paper results have been encouraging — even if the on-field results have the Braves just one game over .500 as they look to avoid dipping below that mark as they deal with the seemingly impossible task of winning baseball games in the state of California.

Let’s start with the good, which is that the pitching has been outstanding so far. Through 11 games, Atlanta’s pitching staff has an ERA of 2.23 (57 ERA-) and a FIP of 3.29 (82 FIP-). If I had to predict it, I’d imagine that the ERA will move closer to the FIP as the season progresses but as long as both the ERA- and FIP- stay well below 100, Atlanta is on track to be much improved in the pitching department. There’s plenty of room to improve on last season, which is when they finished with an ERA of 4.36 (103 ERA-) and a FIP of 4.20 (103 FIP-) and assuming that what we’re currently seeing from Bryce Elder and Reynaldo López is real, that improvement should be on its way.

In fact, I’d say that the best early story so far has been Bryce Elder’s apparent improvement. Of course he’s not going to carry a 0.00 ERA over the course of this entire season and he’s going to have a rough day eventually (everybody has rough days — just look at what happened to Chris Sale last night. Yikes!) but the fact that he’s carried his strong end-of-season form from 2025 over into 2026 is certainly encouraging to see. Maybe there’s something to getting advice from Greg Maddux, himself.

The bullpen (outside of Joel Payamps) has been chugging along just fine as well and they’ve been helped by performances from Osvaldo Bido and Martín Pérez being able to go out there and eat plenty of innings when called upon. Having long relief like that could go a long way towards preserving the rest of the bullpen and helping to ensure that we don’t see such a revolving door for this staff like we did in 2025 when the Braves set records for the sheer number of guys they were sending out there to pitch.

Can things get better? Of course. Chris Sale still hasn’t really gotten it going just yet, the fifth spot of the rotation is still in a bit of flux and I already mentioned Joel Payamps and his tough start to the season right now (a 20.16 xERA is jarring to see, early or not). Still, it’s encouraging and also lends a tiny bit of credence to my personal theory that good health alone would give this pitching staff a huge boost. As long as guys continue going out there, tis pitching staff should be fine.

The staff has also benefited from getting some great defense behind them as well, which is always encouraging to see. Being tough to score on (whether it’s via lockdown pitching or lights-out defense) can go a long way towards making this team a serious candidate to play some important baseball games once we get into September and October.

Now we get into the offense, which is doing “fine” on paper but as we all know, “fine” has never ben the standard for the bats around here. Through 11 games so far, the Braves are hitting .249/.319/.414 as a unit with a .732 OPS, a .165 Isolated Power number and 106 wRC+. That number has them tied for 10th in all of baseball with the Pittsburgh Pirates — and it’s honestly a testament to how well the rest of the Pirates are hitting that they’ve gotten that high considering that former Braves DH Marcell Ozuna has started this season looking like one of the worst hitters in baseball.

Still, as evidenced by the fact that the Braves have been scoring their runs in fits and starts, it’s something that could definitely do with improvement. They have a walk rate of 9.2 percent along with a strikeout rate of 19 percent. It’s interesting because the Dodgers have a similar BB/K split but the Dodgers are making up for it by absolutely crushing the ball to the tune of a .299/.366/.523 team slash line with .224 in Isolated Power and 149 team wRC+. If you’re going to have that type of split, you better be mashing the ball every night and that hasn’t quite been the case for the Braves so far outside of a couple of really big games.

Drake Baldwin has gotten off to an excellent start and we’ve also seen some unexpected contributions from guys like Marucio Dubón and Dominic Smith. One of those two guys was seemingly a glove-first guy and the other is a guy who came on as a non-roster invitee and made the team, so getting stuff from them has been bonus. You’d also expect that the reigning NL Rookie of the Year would be crushing it as well, as Baldwin is now taking strides to being recognized as one of the best-hitting catchers in the game right now.

The issue is that the rest of Atlanta’s stars have been scuffling right out of the gate. Matt Olson has been doing fine and Ozzie Albies has been faring okay, himself. The problem right now is that Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Austin Riley have been wandering in the wilderness to begin the season. Acuña is currently sitting on 51 wRC+ so far and that’s the high mark for this trio, which tells you just how rough it’s been for these three guys so far.

I’d imagine that we’re going to see Acuña and Riley get going at some point but I think we’re at the point now where seeing Harris struggle like this is concerning. Sure it’s early but we’ve also seen this before from Harris when it comes to starting the season off in poor fashion. He’s certainly got just as much potential to bounce back but the question is whether or not he’ll do it as quickly as Acuña or Riley should bounce back. I don’t think that anybody around here has the appetite for seeing another 70 or 80 games of Harris trying to figure it out at the plate while serving as a void of offense in the lineup. I hope he can get it together soon but if I had to say I was worried about anybody in the lineup right now, it’s Money Mike.

Now granted, we’re still only talking about 11 games — a drop in the bucket when it comes to this long, winding river of a regular season. However, there’s already been some stuff that’s worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. Can Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López Mauricio Dubón and Dominic Smith keep this up? When will the star players on this team wake up? When will we see Didier Fuentes again? Will getting their injured players back be a boon for this squad? Will the Braves win more than one (1) game in California this season? Do the new City Connects have an option for powder blue pants? Okay, maybe the last question isn’t as pressing as the rest but it’ll certainly be intriguing to see if and when we’ll get answers to these early questions.

After the team’s first full week, plus a little, the Royals are 5-5. That’s not where they want to be, but there are some positive takeaways from that first week. The losses still count, but they were never going to go 162-0. Even the most optimistic Royals fan can’t look at this team and expect them to even win 100. So the important thing is that, when they take a loss, they get something from it to help them win more games later.

The Royals haven’t been swept yet

Like the header says, the Royals have yet to lose every game in a series. More than that, they have yet to even lose three in a row, while they do have a modest three-game winning streak.

Sure, it’s a low bar to clear, but here’s a list of teams that haven’t managed to clear it:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Detroit Tigers
• Baltimore Orioles
• Athletics
• Boston Red Sox
• Chicago White Sox
• Texas Rangers
• Washington Nationals
• San Francisco Giants
• Colorado Rockies

Do you think the Tigers have given up on their season over a sweep? Have the Red Sox? Of course not. The Blue Jays got swept by the WHITE SOX.* But they’re not going to give in, either. And the Royals have, by at least one metric, played better than all of them. 

*Yes, I am aware that the White Sox aren’t as bad this year as the last couple, but they’re still not good.

The Royals have played stiff competition

There may have been reason to think the Royals had a soft-ish schedule to start the season to begin the year, but two weeks into the season, it looks like that may not have been the case. 

While the team has lost two of their series, the Brewers are tied for the best record in baseball. Atlanta is a couple of losses behind them, but has been unlucky by two losses, according to run differentials. The Royals are 2-4 against two of the best teams currently going in the sport. They took out the division-leading Guardians in their opener, too.

They could have won the Atlanta series if Carlos Estévez had looked like himself. They scored the same number of runs against the Brewers as they allowed. They could have easily won on Sunday if any of Kris Bubic, Matt Strahm, or Lucas Erceg had pitched as well as we know they are capable of. Or even if they had managed to get a timely hit from Bobby Witt Jr. instead of a strikeout. They took out the division-leading Guardians in their opener. Speaking of the offense… 

The outfield is hitting

Royals outfielders are collectively hitting .277/.354/.406, for a wRC+ of 122, eighth-best in baseball. Remember, that was our biggest question for the offense coming in. We all said if they were hitting, the sky was the limit. Well, they are.

Jac Caglianone looked like one of the best hitters in the sport for the first few games, and he’s still not even elevating yet. He had a “bad weekend” against the Brewers that still saw him reach base four times. Isaac Collins appears to have picked up almost exactly where he left off last season – minus the cold stretch to close out the year. And we all know what Kyle Isbel has been doing; he looks like an MVP. Maybe none of them will play quite that well for the entire season, but if we can even see them do it in stretches, the offense should ultimately be fine. Assuming we aren’t ready to give up on the stars.

Maikel Garcia seems to have found another gear. To begin the season, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino have been the biggest problems in the Royals’ lineup. It just so happens they’re batting second and third, so they’re failing in the biggest spots. But is anyone REALLY concerned about them? They are now nearly famous for their slow starts; March and April are by far their worst career monthly splits. It would be nice if they could hit earlier, but if they’re the only problem in April, you’ve got to feel good about where the season is going to end up.

Salvador Perez is perhaps the biggest concern, but not in any way that hasn’t been true since last year. He’s miscast as the cleanup hitter but could be a stud in the six-spot. If Collins and Caglianone keep hitting, that could become a reality sooner rather than later.

The bullpen has flashed

The relief corps has been scary for KC this year; they have a 6.17 ERA, fifth-worst in baseball. But they also have the 15th-best xERA at 3.99, and pretty much every other advanced metric says they’re pitching better than their numbers to some degree or another. 

I think it’s reasonable to argue that the bullpen is probably the weakest position group the Royals have this year, but every single reliever who has appeared for KC has at least one really impressive appearance. And you can also throw out a lot of their work as irrelevant to the team’s future. The six runs given up by Estévez aren’t representative, nor are the final three innings of relief in last Wednesday’s mud bowl. That pretty much leaves Erceg and Strahm from Sunday and Cruz’s appearance on Thursday as the problem points.

Unfortunately, that means that there is no one in the “circle of trust” right now who can nearly guarantee a clean inning. But, because every single reliever – minus the IL-bound Estévez – has had at least one really solid relief appearance, it’s easy to see how any or maybe even all of them could be in the circle of trust as the season exits some of this early-year weirdness.

And if any of them stop showing flashes, Mason Black, Mitch Spence, Eric Cerantola, and Dennis Colleran Jr. all look like guys who could pitch some innings out of the bullpen and help the team out. To say nothing of Luinder Avila, who looked great in the bullpen last year, something less than great in his first career MLB start, and was not immediately demoted following that start – meaning he’s likely now in the bullpen, too, with Bailey Falter joining Estévez on the IL over the weekend.

The 2026 Royals are far from a perfect club. Everything has not yet completely come together. But more than a week into the season, you can already see the team beginning to become the shape we had all hoped they might. The season could yet be derailed in any number of ways, but for now, some of the hope is paying off, and there’s as much reason to think that will continue to be true as ever.

The Diamondbacks’ first ten games have been remarkably undefinitive as far as answering any questions one might have had about the team. Pitchers that have been expected to be good have been bad and vice versa. Hitters who were expected to be bad have been worse, and hitters that were expected to be. It all shakes out to a 5-5 record ten games in. But given that all three series were against contenders (and the favorite to win it all) I can’t be too terribly upset. Some areas of concern nevertheless.

In New York, the Mets find themselves in three way tie for first place with the Phillies and Marlins, with the Braves a mere half game behind. They haven’t had a particularly difficult strength of schedule so far, however, having faced the Pirates, Cardinals, and Giants. Honestly, with that schedule, only being 6-4 is something of a disappointment for a team that is built to be a real contender.

Game 1 — 4/7, 1:10 PM — Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60 ERA/115 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (1-0, 4.35 ERA/94 ERA+, 1.06 WHIP)

Gallen is perhaps the epitome of the Diamondbacks season thus far. He pitched well for three innings on Opening Day, then gave up a big inning. In his second start, he followed it up with a six inning, four hit scoreless outing. There is also the quality of opponent to consider as well. The blow up was against the most stacked team since I turned on force trades on MLB 2k, and the second start was merely against a good team. One thing that does stand out is the near complete lack of strikeouts so far. He’s only recorded four in two starts/10 IP.

A big free agent acquisition for the Mets, Peralta hasn’t made the best first impression so far. His season has mirrored Gallen’s for the most part, actually, but giving up four runs in five innings to the Dodgers would be understandable, four runs to the Pirates is less so. He followed it up with a one run performance against the Cardinals, so it’s in the process of balancing out. Unlike Gallen, though, the strike out pitch is working for Peralta, as he has racked up seven in both starts so far.

Game 2 — 4/8, 1:10 PM — Ryne Nelson (0-1, 5.79 ERA/72 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP) vs. David Peterson (0-1, 4.66 ERA/89 ERA+, 1.96 WHIP)

Ryne Nelson was passed over for the Opening Day start. Ryne Nelson has done nothing to make Lovullo and Hazen regret that decision since. In both of his starts so far he has pitched 4 2/3 inning. The first start against the Dodgers he gave up four runs. His second start… a whopping second. Sure, he wasn’t helped at all by some truly crappy defense behind him, but he didn’t help himself either. It was an ugly game, and he shouldered at least some of the blame for it. He’ll be looking for a bounce back in this series, but it won’t be a soft landing to make it happen.

David Peterson was a first round draft pick for the Mets way back in 2017, and while he’s been a feature of the Mets rotation since he joined the big league club back in 2020, he’s never consistently lived up to that draft selection. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this season he’s had two starts. One was a scoreless outing against Pittsburgh, but the Giants lit him up for six runs in the other start. Only difference between everyone else I’ve mentioned here is that he had his starts backwards. Good start first, bad start second. Other than that, he fits right in.

Game 3 — 4/8, 4:10 PM — Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs. Nolan McLean (1-0, 2.61 ERA/157 ERA+, 0.87 WHIP)

Today I learned that you can’t have an ERA+ if you haven’t given up a run. The Diamondbacks erstwhile ace takes the mound in the series finale. I’m not sure if it’s his noticably leaner physique, still amped up from the World Baseball Classic, or just finally healthy, but this version of Eduardo Rodriguez is the best case scenario from him. He pitched five scoreless against the Dodgers, and then he leveled it up with seven scoreless against the Braves. His strikeouts are lower than normal, but so are his walks, so his SO/BB is 2.67 compared to his career at 2.85. I don’t know how long this is going to continue, but it sure is fun in the meantime.

McLean was a mid season callup for the Mets and pitched incredibly well in the eight starts he got in. He had an ERA+ of 197, giving up 13 runs in 48 innings pitched. He isn’t quite as dominate so far this season, but he is still holding his own and then some. Look for a start of five innings and two earned runs from the young righty.

Conclusion

I like the Diamondbacks odds this series. Gallen pitched very well in NYC last season, and I think he’ll continue where he left off against the Tigers. E-rod might not continue his scoreless streak, but there’s no reason to think that he isn’t going to continue pitching well anyway. Nelson is a bit of a concern, though. On the flip side, the offense is catching a couple of these pitchers at the right time, and maybe some of our bigger hitters can use the opportunity to get right. Either way, I think the Dbacks take the series 2-1.

Red Sox nation needed a reason to smile on Opening Day after a trainwreck of a road trip (rail trip?) to start the season. The 1986 team is all well and good, but winning games in 2026 is more fun than thinking about games that were won 40 years ago. They also weirdly played a video celebrating 250 years of the United States, which made me smile, not because of patriotism, but because it felt really out of place for an opening day celebration. It was more of a “what the hell is going on” smile than an “I’m enjoying this video” smile. The woman in front of me was also astoundingly drunk for the early afternoon, and kept saying her partner was drinking a dark and stormy despite him clarifying it was a vodka lemonade. That was pretty funny, too.

When the game began, however, things were tense. Caleb Durbin grounded into a one-foot, inning-ending double play that elicited a chorus of boos from the Fenway faithful. Fortunately, to keep the crowd from a full riot, Sonny Gray brought his A-game.

Gray threw six innings of two-run baseball on 87 pitches with the game tied. He did it by getting ahead, pitching to the edges, and changing speeds regularly. Against righties, he does what he always does by pitching to the glove side. It was primarily a cutter that went for 60% strikes, albeit with a low zone rate, as well as five outs on balls in play. He paired it with backdoor sinkers that went for 63% strikes, although a few leaked back over the plate into the danger area. With two strikes, he turned to his lethal sweeper, but the command wasn’t quite there, and it only returned one strikeout against righties. The shape and velocity were consistent with last season, so the pitch should continue to miss bats with the right locations.

Against lefties, it was a more balanced mix, led by Gray’s four-seam fastball that he likes to throw up and inside. He followed it up with his cutter, curveball, and even a few well-spotted changeups that mostly lived on the edges and created weak contact. Overall, Gray kept the ball on the ground and avoided barrels. There were one or two mistakes that were hit, but even without his best put-away stuff, the veteran navigated the lineup two and a half times and gave the Red Sox a chance to win. That’s enough reading, let’s watch the tape and see how he got it done.

If you’re new here, I break down at-bats and try to explain why pitchers choose a certain pitch and how they work together in sequence. I make notes as I watch the game on what matchups are good to break down, but for the most part, I’m writing this as I rewatch, so I don’t remember what pitches are coming next.

2nd Inning vs. Miguel Andujar

We’ll start with Miguel Andujar in the second inning.

It’s a cutter that starts down the middle and cuts off the plate. Andujar is looking middle-in and whiffs. Great start. Gray throws everything on the glove side against righties and will likely continue to stay away from Andujar until he proves he can lay off.

At 0-1, Gray goes to a sweeper that breaks off the plate for ball one. Good idea, poor execution. At 1-1, Gray could go back to the cutter, a backdoor sinker, or even try to run a sinker in on the hands as a surprise.

He does try to backdoor the sinker, but yanks it for ball two. He’s trying to start this pitch away and have it clip the outside edge with its horizontal movement, but he misses his spot. At 2-1, his options are similar to 1-1. He also has the four-seam fastball that he can try to land on the outside edge for a take.

It’s the four-seam down the middle, and Andujar fouls it off. Andujar appears to be looking for a sinker coming towards him, because he pulls off this ball and gets it off the end of the bat. With two outs and nobody on, a walk isn’t the end of the world, but Gray should throw whatever he feels best about throwing to the edge.

It’s the backdoor sinker, and all Andujar can do is hit it on the ground. With two strikes, Andujar has to swing, and this is in a location where it’s hard to do much with. Great pitch.

4th Inning vs. Jackson Merrill

Here’s Jackson Merrill in the fourth inning. In the first meeting, everything Gray threw was on the glove side, with Merrill ultimately grounding out against a four-seam fastball.

Gray starts Merrill off with a curveball at the bottom of the zone. It’s fouled off for strike one. Getting ahead of hitters, especially lefties, is huge for Gray. He did a great job of that on Friday, going 17/22.

He tries to go inside with a fastball, but misses above the zone. That high above the zone will never get a whiff, but it’s out of the danger area as far as misses go.

Here’s a changeup that’s in a really good location, but Merrill takes it for ball two. It’s hard to say for sure, but it looks like he’s fooled by the movement and is lucky it fades off the plate.

This is fun. It’s essentially the same pitch, but this one is seven miles per hour harder. Merrill is timed up for something soft and is late, fouling it off. Now with two strikes, Gray could go to his sweeper at the back foot, a changeup away, or a curveball in the dirt. He also likes to throw a sinker at the front hip of lefties with two strikes.

It is the front hip sinker, but it starts too far inside to get the called strike. To this point, everything inside Merrill saw was breaking towards him. Gray is trying to start it just off the plate, so it runs back and Merrill takes it, but it starts right at him. 3-2.

It’s a cutter that starts down the middle and runs inside. Merrill gets around it and grounds out weakly to first. It’s not the best located pitch, but this is what Gray can do when he’s locating. He has pitches moving in each direction, and he can throw just about everything in the zone. It’s hard for hitters to see a pitch in a certain part of the plate and know what’s coming, and he misses barrels as a result. Nicely done.

5th Inning vs. Ramon Laureano

Let’s do one more. Here’s Ramon Laureano in the fifth inning. He flew out on a sinker inside his first time up.

It’s a sinker that starts outside and comes back for strike one. In his first at-bat, everything away from Laureano stayed away. This one starts away and comes back, and Gray is ahead 0-1.

Here’s a cutter that starts middle and cuts away. Laureano fouls it off, and it’s 0-2. As a general rule of thumb, if Gray is up 0-2 against a righty, it’s probably a sweeper.

This is disgusting. It starts on the inside edge and breaks 18 inches across the plate. For reference, home plate is 17 inches across. At 86 mph, it’s nearly impossible to hit when it’s located well.

Gray is at his best when he gets ahead of hitters and can throw his various fastballs in sequence. In his home debut, that’s exactly what he did. When he falls behind, and hitters can be more selective, he can get into trouble, but when he’s ahead, and hitters are forced to swing, they have a very hard time. When he gets to two-strike counts, that sweeper is nearly unhittable. There hasn’t been a lot to smile about for Red Sox fans, but Sonny Gray is showing he still has an arsenal that works.

Oral Hildebrand’s baseball story feels almost too perfect for its era. Disney could easily turn it into a coming-of-age summer classic.

Born in Indianapolis in 1907, his journey to the Yankees did not begin under bright lights. It started in the kind of Midwestern setting that shaped so many ballplayers of his generation, where imagination and a patch of open, mostly flat land could become a ballpark by afternoon. By the time Hildebrand hung up his cleats, that grounded beginning had turned into a 10-year major league career, capped by joining the Yankees for the final two seasons of his professional life and winning a World Series.

Oral Clyde Hildebrand
Born: April 7, 1907 (Indianapolis, IN)
Died: September 8, 1977 (Southport, IN)
Yankees Tenure: 1939-40

The roots of that journey began on the family farm outside Indianapolis.

Long before Butler, before Cleveland, and before the Bronx, Hildebrand’s early mornings were spent milking cows, hauling water, and tossing hay bales, the kind of repetitive, strength-building work that quietly shaped both his body and his discipline. Somewhere between the barn chores and the open fields, he began to realize his future was not meant to stay rooted in the barnyard.

The same strong arm that could sling feed and stack hay kept finding a more natural purpose on the diamond. That arm turned him into a star pitcher at Southport High School, but the road forward was hardly smooth. After graduating, Hildebrand remained on the farm for two years because he simply did not have the money to attend college.

Then came the break that changed everything.

A summer job in a machine shop, paired with extra money earned pitching weekend games for the Indianapolis Power and Light Company team, finally gave him the chance to move forward. That team happened to be owned by Norman Perry, who also owned the Indianapolis Indians, a connection that would quietly shape the next chapter of Hildebrand’s life.

With money finally in hand, the Indiana kid stayed close to home and enrolled at Butler University. Hildebrand was far more than just a pitcher there. He was also the center on Butler’s 1928-29 national championship basketball team, a reminder of how naturally athletic he was. But his Butler story took a turn when it was discovered that, under the alias “Roy Hilden,” he had been pitching for a semipro team in Brazil, Indiana, earning $40 a game.

That side hustle cost him his eligibility. Ruled ineligible by Butler’s Faculty Committee on Athletics, Hildebrand took the most logical next step and signed with Perry’s Indianapolis professional team. It proved to be the turning point that officially pushed him toward the majors.

In 1931, the Cleveland Indians acquired Hildebrand, and he soon made his major league debut. His Cleveland years formed the backbone of his career. In 1933, he put together one of the finest seasons by an American League starter that year. Hildebrand won 16 games, led the league with six shutouts, earned a selection to the first-ever All-Star Game at Chicago’s Comiskey Park, and even tossed a one-hitter in a game that lasted only 82 minutes.

From 1933 through 1936, he became exactly what every good pitching staff needs: durable, dependable, and capable of eating up innings.

That reliability made him a valuable trade piece.

On January 17, 1937, Cleveland sent Hildebrand, Bill Knickerbocker, and Joe Vosmik to the St. Louis Browns. His stop in St. Louis never quite matched the peak of his Cleveland years, but he remained a veteran arm who continued to log meaningful innings, even as both the team and his numbers trended in the wrong direction.

Then came the move that changed how his career would be remembered. On October 26, 1938, the Browns traded Hildebrand and Buster Mills to the Yankees. What could have easily been just another late-career transaction instead became the defining turn of his journey. The veteran pitcher who had once dreamed of wearing pinstripes finally got his chance.

By the time Hildebrand arrived in the Bronx in 1939, the Yankees were already baseball’s standard. For a veteran entering the final chapters of his career, it represented the perfect chance to put the cherry on top. And he absolutely made the most of it. Hildebrand went 10-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 1939, giving the Yankees meaningful innings on a 106-win championship team. Perhaps the most historic game he started came on April 30, 1939, a cloudy afternoon that unknowingly would become the final game of Lou Gehrig’s legendary streak.

Then came October.

In the 1939 World Series against Cincinnati, Hildebrand took the ball in Game 4 and delivered four shutout innings, helping close out the sweep and secure the championship. For a player who had openly said he wanted to join the Yankees because of their winning tradition, there could not have been a better first season in the Bronx.

His own words say it best:

“I always wanted to be with the Yankees. When I was with the Indians, and later with the Browns, Joe McCarthy was just another manager of a rival team, in my estimation. Still, I always admired the way he ran his team, and I hoped someday I would be playing for him.”

A few days later, Hildebrand was involved in a car accident that left him with injuries to his hands and arms. He recovered enough to return in 1940, pitching in 13 relief appearances and going 1-1 in what became the final season of his major league career.

That 1939 championship became the perfect cherry on top of a decade-long journey that stretched from Indianapolis farm life to Cleveland success, through St. Louis, and finally to baseball immortality’s most famous stage. His career totals, 83 wins across 10 seasons, reflect a pitcher who kept finding ways to contribute at every stop.

But like so many of your favorite birthday pieces, it is the path that makes Oral Hildebrand memorable.

From the barnyard to the ballpark in the Bronx, his story remains one of the cleaner, more satisfying journeys in Yankees history.

Happy birthday, Oral Hildebrand.
Or maybe, just for legends’ sake, Roy Hilden.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series he

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The New York Mets open a homestand against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday afternoon, and both teams are looking to stay hot in chilly NYC.

My Diamondbacks vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for April 7 are calling for the Mets to keep it going with a home cover in a low-scoring affair.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Mets today: Mets -1.5 (+145)

The New York Mets will once again not have Juan Soto, who strained his calf on Friday and is on the injured list. However, the Mets scored at least five runs in each of the three games they took at San Francisco over the weekend without Soto. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks also enter on a streak, going 5-2 straight-up in the last seven and covering the run line in seven of the last nine. 

I believe pitching will make the difference today.

New York has allowed the fourth-fewest runs in MLB and start Freddy Peralta against Arizona, which is averaging just 3.5 runs a game. 

Zac Gallen has been up-and-down in two starts this year, and the D-backs bullpen is 28th in ERA (6.50).

COVERS INTEL: After striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings over his career, Gallen struck out just 5.1 per nine in spring training, and is at 3.6 per nine in two regular season starts in 2026.

Diamondbacks vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-105)

Eventually, replacing a six-time Silver Slugger like Soto with Jared Young, Carson Benge, or Brett Baty will catch up with the Mets. This offense may come back to earth, especially with Francisco Lindor (two extra base hits in 48 AB) slumping. 

Arizona has seen everyone except Corbin Carroll mired in early-season slumps.

The Mets start last season's NL wins leader in Peralta, while the D-Backs start former All-Star Zac Gallen. Even with the earlier start, the air will be crisp and cold, so it's not the ideal hitting environment. 

Diamondbacks vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Arizona +130 | New York -155
• Run line: Arizona +1.5 | New York -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7

Diamondbacks vs Mets trend

The Mets have covered the F5 run line in 44 of their last 78 games at home (+7.00 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Mets.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Mets and game info

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