We made it to another Friday. I had my birthday yesterday and didn’t really do all that much differently than a normal Thursday, which made it a nice day. I had a cardio tennis class, which is just a run-yourself-into-the-ground-for-an-hour thing, and squash last night, which, again, is run-yourself-into-the-ground. And there were calls from our kids and friends mixed in. Tonight it is drinks with friends.
There isn’t much for news, yet again, today.
The Jays are going to wear a patch celebrating their 50 years in the MLB this seasson:
As always, my first reaction is that it can’t be 50 years because I remember the first season. My second is I’d like to get a pin of that.
Bo Bichette sent Jays’ fans a message through Hazel Mae:
Whit Merrifield has decided to tell us that Bo “loves Toronto, loves the Jays, loves the city, loves the fans.” And “that there was some stuff along the way that happened with Bo and the coaching staff.” I’m sure that Bo did love Toronto and all. I don’t believe that the reason he signed with the Mets had anything to do with a problem with the coaching staff. I think it had more to do with the $42 million a season the Mets offered. The Jays weren’t going to match that.
Whit also told us that Kyle Tucker wanted to sign with the Jays, they just wouldn’t offer enough money. I’ll believe that. I believe that Tucker wanted to sign with whatever team offered the most money. The Dodgers decided to offer what I think is an insane amount of money, so he signed there.
There are three Blue Jays on Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list:
10: Trey Yesavage
62: Arjun Nimmala
68: JoJo Parker
About Parker they said:
Scouting Report: Parker is a physical shortstop who stands 6-foot-2 with a strong, muscular build and room to add more strength. He was one of the older players in the 2025 high school class but shows arguably the best balance of hitting and power among his prep peers. Parker sets up with an open stance and a narrow base. He rests the bat on his shoulder, then engages his load with a leg kick that feeds into an aggressive stride. Parker shows plus bat-to-ball skills and a patient approach. He can get overly passive at times, taking too many hittable pitches in the zone. He does a good job of pulling pitches located on the inner half of the plate and shows plus raw power. His swing is more geared toward hard line drives than lofted fly balls, but he should grow into above-average power at peak. Parker is an average runner who gets out of the box well, but he’s unlikely to impact the game much with his speed. Parker is a shortstop at present but is likely to move to third base. He lacks the quick-twitch mechanisms and range needed to play shortstop. He does have a strong internal clock and an above-average arm.
The Future: Parker projects as an above-average regular at third base who could one day grow into an all-star.
They also had LHP Johnny King on their ‘just missed out’ list. He was a third-round pick in 2024 and struck out 105 in 61.2 innings spilt between Dunedin and the FCL.
The Jays announced their non-roster spring training invites.
The Atlanta Braves had what can only be described as a woefully year. They were wracked with injuries to their rotation and lineup which led to a 76-86 record. good for 4th in the NLE. It was the first time Atlanta has missed the playoffs since 2017 and spelled the end for long time manager Brian Snitker. It’s clear the Braves are at a crossroads, especially with a farm system considered weak, yet the roster does include some formidable talents and some excellent young players along with established stars? Was this just an injury generated blip that will see the Braves return to power in the NLE or has the organization between eclipsed by the Mets and the Phillies?
I reached out to Ivan the Great, one of the editors at Battery Power, and he was kind enough to answer some questions about his take on the Braves offseason and the issues they face going into 2026.
So far, the Braves have added Ha-Seong Kim, Robert Suarez, Mike Yastrzemski, Mauricio Dubón and Jorge Mateo this offseason. Is this likely it and if not, what are the key areas that still need addressing?
It’s probably it. The Braves could probably use a lower-risk starter given that pretty much their entire rotation is high variance due to missing time with injury last year, but prices for durable starters have gone off the rails over the last few years, so I don’t think it’s necessarily something to expect. The flip side is that the Braves tend to operate by drawing a line in the sand about acquisition prices, but then being very opportunistic if they see something that comes in below that price – so you can’t rule out a late-breaking roster shuffle if an opportunity presents itself. That said, as prices for quality players of all stripes continue to rise, don’t bank on that, either.
The 2025 season was the least successful for the Braves since 2017. Is that largely attributed to injuries to key players or are there any underlying issues the team is facing to be competitive in 2026?
There was a point last season where I asked our community this question – framed as a binary choice between either the roster needing to change, or everything but the roster needing to change. To a person, every single respondent said the latter. Injuries are injuries, but the team was also horrendously injured in 2024 and weathered it okay, all things considered.
To avoid beating around the bush, I think the most succinct-if-a-little-too-glib correct answer is that the Braves have a very well-built roster, but do (or did, or have done) a lot of stupid stuff with it, and that level of “stupid stuff” hit a new high in 2025. The team consistently snubbed its nose at stuff like the times-through-the-order penalty and leverage, but was usually fine because the bats were outslugging everyone. The coup de grace, then, came in the offseason, when the powers that be, apparently spooked by a catastrophically large input-output gap on offense for much of the 2024 season, wheeled around to an offensive approach that was directly at odds with what the team had implemented from both a roster construction and coaching perspective from 2019-2024. A team of sluggers was asked to draw more walks and fight the ball off the other way, and it basically destroyed the season.
None of us have any idea whether “doing stupid stuff” is an underlying issue, or if things will magically be fixed with some turnover in the coaching staff in the offseason. We’ll have to wait and see. In general, you don’t expect a team’s talent to play down because who would bother with such a huge unforced error, right? But that’s what we’ve seen on the pitching end from this team here and there over the last few seasons, and then we saw it on the hitting side last year.
Which players really took the biggest steps forward this year for the club?
I think it has to be Drake Baldwin to start. He wasn’t really even in the conversation for the Opening Day roster, but Sean Murphy’s injury led to a Rookie of the Year campaign. Baldwin’s approach to hitting sort of goes against the grain of his teammates but also happened to dovetail really well with what the team was hoping the bats would do offensively. Given Sean Murphy’s bizarre status (playing through worse than a run-of-the-mill hip injury for multiple years), Baldwin has leapfrogged his way to being a key cog in this machine.
Hurston Waldrep had a nice run down the stretch last year, but he looks like he has a bunch of stuff to work through. That’s true of most young pitchers, but I think Baldwin took a definitive, huge step forward, and everyone else, Waldrep included, isn’t really in the same tier.
The Braves’ farm system is generally considered to be weak at the upper levels compared to most other clubs. Is there a likely world where one of their top prospects like Richie or Caminiti has a legitimate shot at the bigs this year, or is it most likely they’ll stay put until 2027 at the earliest?
One thing we know about the Braves is that they’ll promote you when they think you’re ready. They don’t care at all about outside evaluations, and they don’t seem to care about anything that you could likely garner from a stat sheet either. They have internal benchmarks and once you hit them, you’re going to be thrown into the fire, irrespective of innings at level or whatever. To that end, I don’t know how to speculate about a legitimate shot at promotion, since it depends on Caminiti and company hitting benchmarks that are totally opaque to me. Didier Fuentes got a promotion last year and didn’t stick – one of the few times a prospect call-up who appeared rushed to the majors by this regime didn’t.
The one thing possibly working against another out-of-nowhere promotion is that the Braves have a bunch of rotation options, at least until injuries strike. Grant Holmes and Reynaldo Lopez could start or relieve depending on health and needs, Bryce Elder is kind of like the proverbial bad penny, and AJ Smith-Shawver should return eventually. That means that if prospect promotion were a combination of “readiness” and opportunity previously, the opportunity may be more constrained this time around.
Of the remaining FAs, which would fit best for the Braves, even if it’s a bit of a stretch they’d land there?
The QO and personality issues probably pose a challenge with regard to Framber Valdez, so I guess Chris Bassitt is the next man up in that regard. Whether Bassitt is truly a “fit” is hard to say, because it depends on whether the Braves consider him good enough to start a playoff game – that seems to be their (self-professed) bar for shelling out for a starter acquisition. If he is, then I think it’s not even a stretch that they add Bassitt eventually, as he helps smooth out the innings burden across the rotation. If not, then I have no idea – Zac Gallen also requires the loss of a draft pick. Maybe Zack Littell? Bassitt seems like the easy answer, though.
Assuming you could put on the ‘accept all trades’ button, what would an ideal but still realistic target be for you before ST starts?
Once upon a time this offseason, I would’ve said Otto Lopez, as he fits pretty much everything the Braves like, want, and need: undervalued relative to inputs and production, an approach that fits with 2025-Braves but could also benefit from the instruction of 2019-2024 Braves, and at a clear position of need. That ship has not only sailed with the Braves re-adding Ha-Seong Kim, but was probably never really tied up at the pier anyway.
The alternative is for some starters that aren’t really on the trading block but would’ve been nice if they were: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, the largely unheralded Jose Soriano, that sort of thing. Other names that I could throw out in this tier would be MacKenzie Gore, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Yusei Kikuchi, and Sandy Alcantara – none are perfect but that’s the sort of thing I expect from the Braves if “force trade” were a reality and they couldn’t go too off the rails. (In other words, they didn’t abuse their power to get Cole Ragans or something.)
I want to do a post about the Gore MacKenzie trade that talks about the prospects the Rangers give up. And as part of that, I was going to go through and look at who else the Rangers have traded, in terms of prospects, to get a major league return since the start of the 2023 season.
But such a list would be unwieldy in the middle of a post, and really, has value outside of the discussion of the Gore trade. So instead, I’m doing a separate post about it.
I’m not listing guys lost on waivers or sold for cash considerations to clear up a 40 man roster spot, since my focus is just on guys traded in actual baseball deals designed to make the present team better, not guys who are lost for procedural reasons. I’m also including guys who had technically lost their prospect eligibility because I’m not being pedantic about it.
Here you go:
Cole Ragans — 6/30/23 to Kansas City for Aroldis Chapman
Roni Cabrera — 6/30/23 to Kansas City for Aroldis Chapman
Luisangel Acuna — 7/30/23 to NY Mets for Max Scherzer and cash
Tekoah Roby — 7/30/23 to St. Louis for Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton
Thomas Saggese — 7/30/23 to St. Louis for Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa — 5/8/24 to ChiSox for Robbie Grossman
Liam Hicks — 7/28/24 to Detroit for Carson Kelly
Tyler Owens — 7/28/24 to Detroit for Carson Kelly
Joseph Montalvo — 7/30/24 to Detroit for Andrew Chafin
Chase Lee — 7/30/24 to Detroit for Andrew Chafin
Brayan Mendoza — 12/11/24 to Miami for Jake Burger
Echedry Vargas — 12/11/24 to Miami for Jake Burger
Maximo Acosta — 12/11/24 to Miami for Jake Burger
Garrett Horn — 7/31/25 to Minnesota for Danny Coulombe
Mitch Bratt — 7/31/25 to Arizona for Merrill Kelly
Kohl Drake — 7/31/25 to Arizona for Merrill Kelly
David Hagaman — 7/31/25 to Arizona for Merrill Kelly
Skylar Hales — 7/31/25 to St. Louis for Phil Maton
Mason Molina — 7/31/25 to St. Louis for Phil Maton
Jaiker Garcia — 12/10/25 to Pittsburgh for Carter Baumler
Gavin Fien — 1/22/26 to Washington for MacKenzie Gore
Abi Ortiz — 1/22/26 to Washington for MacKenzie Gore
Devin Fitz-Gerald — 1/22/26 to Washington for MacKenzie Gore
Alejandro Rosario — 1/22/26 to Washington for MacKenzie Gore
Yeremy Cabrera — 1/22/26 to Washington for MacKenzie Gore
Thelo Aasgaard has scored in three of his past four starts in the Scottish Premiership (three goals), including both of his latest two at Ibrox, with three of his four league goals for Rangers this season coming at home (75%).
Just 27% of Dundee's points in the Scottish Premiership this season have come away from home (six out of 22), the lowest ratio of any side, although they did pick up their first away league win of the season most recently at Dundee United (1-0).
Rangers have won their past five league matches, last winning more on the spin in February 2024 under Philippe Clement (nine).
Dundee are winless in 20 away games at Rangers in all competitions, although their 1-1 draw most recently (August 2025) ended a 19-game losing streak.
Rangers are unbeaten in 19 meetings with Dundee in all competitions (W15 D4) since a 2-1 defeat in November 2017.
When it comes to all-time baseball records, there are some that were set in a different era and will never be approached—such as the 59 wins Old Hoss Radbourn compiled in 1884. The Colorado Rockies won only 43 games last summer. Ouch.
Cy Young’s 511 career wins and 749 complete games also fall into this untouchable category.
As for complete games, there were only 29 thrown in all of Major League Baseball during the 2025 season. At that pace, it would take 26 more seasons just for every team in baseball combined to reach 749, so that record is never getting broken. The game has changed. Even before the game changed, both of those numbers were unapproachable.
I’d like to propose that baseball break the record book into pre- and post-integration periods. Radbourn’s 59 wins would remain the pre-integration record. The post-integration (1947 to present) record would belong to Denny McLain and his remarkable 31 wins in 1968. Maybe you don’t like the idea of two separate record books, but remember: Major League Baseball once put a footnote next to Roger Maris’ single-season home run record and kept it there for nearly thirty years.
I think it makes sense to have two record books. Pre-integration players never had to compete against Black, Asian, or Latin American players, let alone play night games or endure the travel demands modern players face. Things were different in the old days, and that’s fine—but you’d have a hard time convincing me that Old Hoss Radbourn was a better pitcher than Satchel Paige, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux, or even a modern slinger like Clayton Kershaw. Baseball nerds know about Radbourn’s 59 wins. Reddit fans know him as one of the first people to flip the bird to a photographer.
Nolan Ryan is the career strikeout leader with an astounding 5,715 strikeouts. The Big Unit sits second with 4,875. Think about that for a moment. As great as Randy Johnson was, he still finished 840 strikeouts behind the Ryan Express. The current active leader is Justin Verlander with 3,553, and his career is winding down. That record is safe for our lifetimes.
I doubt we’ll ever see anyone break Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak. Defenses and scouting are too sophisticated today, to say nothing of hitters having to face a parade of flame-throwing bullpen arms. By modern standards, a 25- or 30-game hitting streak is notable. DiMaggio’s 56-game run came in 1941, making it the pre-integration record. The post-integration mark belongs to Pete Rose and his phenomenal 44-game heater in 1978.
Some of the other records surprised me. Take Sam Crawford’s record of 309 career triples. Sounds reasonable, right? Ty Cobb sits in second place with 295. Former Royals greats Willie Wilson (#56, 147) and George Brett (#70, 137) appear on the leaderboard. Who’s the active player with the most career triples? That would be Starling Marte with 55. Bobby Witt Jr. will eventually start showing up on this list—he already has 34. The post-integration record holder for career triples is Roberto Clemente with 166. Seeing Roberto’s name in the record book warms my heart. He was a phenomenal player.
Earl Webb holds the single-season doubles record with 67, set in 1931. This is a record that could be broken. The modern record holders are Freddie Freeman and Todd Helton, both of whom hit 59 doubles—Freeman in 2023 and Helton in 2000. More on Freeman as the story unfolds.
How about career doubles? That record belongs to Tris Speaker with 792. Pete Rose is second with 746. George Brett sits at an impressive #7 with 665. The current active leader, at #34, is Freddie Freeman with 547. With a couple of decent seasons, he should comfortably move into the top 20 all time.
Speaking of Freeman, he’s also the current active hits leader with 2,431. Pete Rose, of course, sits at number one with 4,256.
Freeman’s name keeps popping up on other lists as well.
Total bases? Hammerin’ Henry Aaron may have an all-time unbreakable record with 6,856. Albert Pujols is second with 6,211. George Brett sits at #21 with 5,044, while our newest Hall of Famer, Carlos Beltrán, checks in at #34 with 4,751. Freeman is the active leader with 4,145.
Hack Wilson holds the all-time single-season RBI record with 191, set in 1930. The modern record belongs to Manny Ramírez, who drove in 165 runs in 1999.
Career RBIs follow a similar pattern. Hank Aaron is #1 with 2,297, followed by Pujols with 2,218. George Brett sits at #38 with 1,596, while Beltrán is #41 with 1,587. The active leader, once again, is Freeman with 1,322.
How about extra-base hits? The Hammer has #1 locked down with 1,477, while Barry Bonds sits in the #2 spot with 1,440. George Brett ranks an impressive #19 with 1,119, and Beltrán comes in at #25 with 1,078. Freeman is once again the active leader with 947.
Two more, then I’ll stop.
Runs scored: Rickey Henderson leads all-time with 2,295. Ty Cobb is second with 2,245. In a surprise, former Royal Johnny Damon ranks #32 with 1,668, while George Brett (#51, 1,583) and Beltrán (#53, 1,582) occupy the same neighborhood. Freeman is the active leader at #102 with 1,379.
My point in all of this is that Freddie Freeman has had a hell of a career. If you had any doubt about his Hall of Fame credentials, this should end it. He’s going to Cooperstown without question. And looking back to see George Brett’s name on so many of these lists brings back great memories of just how tremendous a hitter he was.
Another Rickey Henderson record that looks safe for a long, long time is his stolen base mark of 1,406. Lou Brock—one of the nicest baseball players I’ve ever met—sits second with 938. Several former Royals dot the list. Willie Wilson ranks #12 with 668, so his club record looks safe for a long time. Damon appears again at #68 with 408. He had a heck of a career, too—too bad the Royals couldn’t keep him in Kansas City longer. Freddie Patek, somewhat overlooked, checks in at #83 with 385 steals. The active career leader, at #102, is Starling Marte with 361.
What’s the point of all this? I’m not entirely sure, other than a fascination with numbers. Despite the game featuring several all-time greats currently playing (Mike Trout, anyone?), these career records show just how astounding some of the past careers really were. The more I toyed with the idea of pre- and post-integration record books, the more I liked it. It would give fans something new to get excited about. Could someone break the modern RBI or doubles record? Absolutely. And right now, baseball needs all the excitement it can get.
Also, with Freeman turning 36 later this fall, enjoy watching him while you can. It may be a long time before we see another one like him.
31-year-old Carson Franklin Kelly had a real nice year in 2025, registering 3.6 bWAR and a slash line of .249/.333/.428 with 17 home runs and 50 RBI in 421 plate appearances. Not too shabby. Yeah, he wasn’t Cal Raleigh, but then, neither is anybody else.
That was easily his best year in MLB, surpassing the 2.1 bWAR he turned in for the 2021 season and in fact nearly doubling his lifetime total. He also hit for the cycle in March.
So we probably can’t count on that kind of production, even in a contract year. Miguel Amaya is capable of turning in better numbers, as said in his profile, Amaya will likely be the nominal starting catcher by year’s end. If Kelly turns in a decent campaign, though, it’s entirely possible that the Cubs keep him around to be Amaya’s backup in 2027, assuming that Moises Ballesteros doesn’t suddenly attain competence behind the plate.
Northside Baseball’s Randy Holt had a few choice words about that in a recent article, zeroing in on what Kelly changed to attain the better numbers, and by his logic, it should be a repeatable process. “… it doesn’t seem at all unrealistic for him to do it again in 2026.”
His 777 putouts (fifth in the NL), .998 Fielding Percentage, and 34.3 CS percentage (second in the NL) don’t hurt, either.
And that’s important, given Amaya’s propensity for the freak injury. Kelly does have a $7.5 million mutual option for 2027, and odds are that the Cubs won’t be paying the $1.5 million buyout.
BBRef puts forth Barry Foote and George Mitterwald as comparative bats. Different times, though. Both were substandard in their day, though both had a good year or two, as Kelly has. It could be worse.
Something like 10 home runs, 35 RBI, and a .240 BA seem reasonable, with good defensive numbers and a slightly diminished workload. He should have around 40 percent of the playing time in 2026, with Amaya getting the lion’s share, especially later in the season.
If both play to their 2025 paces, and Amaya stays on the field, the Cubs are in good shape, catching-wise.
To the extent that Craig Breslow was hired to turn around Red Sox pitching, you can’t say he that hasn’t done his job. In just two offseasons, Breslow has completely revamped the top of the Sox rotation by aggressively acquiring one of the game’s best pitchers in Garrett Crochet and two other recent all-stars in Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez. Meanwhile, a number of depth moves combined with internal prospect development has given the Sox something I don’t think I’ve ever seen before in my lifetime as a Sox fan: a genuinely ridiculous amount of starting pitching depth.
Here’s how the FanGraphs projections look right now:
Projections are a useful tool. But they’re are also a blunt tool that, by design, ignores a lot of important nuance and context. Looking at the projections for both Johan Oviedo and Patrick Sandoval demonstrates this. The computer only pegs them to throw 80 and 54 innings, respectively, because they’ve both recently missed entire seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. But we human beings know that they are both likely to be healthy at the start of spring training. Likewise, the idea that neither Connelly Early nor Patyon Tolle throws at least 30 innings beggars belief.
So, rather than look forward via projections, I decided to look backward at things that actually happened. I took a look at the five teams who led baseball in starting pitching fWAR over the last five seasons in order to determine how teams actually put together the best starting pitching in baseball. Do the 2026 Red Sox have what it takes to join this list?
2025: Philadelphia Phillies, 21.5 WAR
Starters who made 30 starts: 2
Starters who made 20 starts: 5
Starters who made 10 starts: 6
Total starters: 10
How did they do it?
When I first started this exercise, I figured the answer to this question would almost always be “depth.” After all, this is The Age of Tommy John, and baseball as an institution seemingly has absolutely no idea how to prevent or limit pitching injuries. It would be smart to assume, then, that whichever team has the best starting pitching in any given year is the team that has the deepest starting pitching.
The 2025 Phillies, though, belied that assumption. With the exception of Aaron Nola, who struggled at the start of the season before missing significant time with a rib cage injury, the 2025 Phillies rotation was remarkably healthy. In fact, the team essentially used only six starting pitchers all season. And, importantly, those starters were really, really good. Four Phillies starters finished in the top-12 for fWAR in all of baseball, led by Christopher Sanchez, whose 6.3 fWAR was third in all of baseball. And, yes, the guy who was 12th in baseball in starting pitching fWAR (but only fourth on the Phillies, lol) is now on the Red Sox.
So how did they do it? Health and a rotation filled with aces.
2024: Atlanta Braves, 17.4 WAR
Starters who made 30 starts: 1
Starters who made 20 starts: 5
Starters who made 10 starts: 6
Total starters: 13
How did they do it?
Once again, look to the Injury List. The 2024 Braves had 5 pitchers who made at least 21 starts. Unlike the 2025 Phillies, though, the Braves only had one ace in the rotation. Chris Sale won the NL Cy Young after posting 6.4 fWAR, while the Braves other four primary starters all finished between 1.1 and 3.5 fWAR.
Of course, there’s something else to note about the 2024 Braves rotation: it didn’t include Spencer Strider, who made just two starts before going down for the year. So how did the 2024 Braves put together the best starting staff in the game? By beginning the season with two aces (three if you want to throw Max Fried in there, though 2024 was only his fourth-best season by fWAR) and then getting good health from their solid but unspectacular group of mid-rotation arms when one of those aces went down.
2023: Philadelphia Phillies, 17.4 WAR
Starters who made more than 30 starts: 3
Starters who made more than 20 starts: 4
Starters who made more than 10 starts: 6
Total starters: 11
How did they do it?
The 2023 Phillies looked more like the 2024 Braves than the 2025 Phillies: one ace at the top (Zack Wheeler, 5.9 fWAR), followed by a solid group that stayed healthy: Aaron Nola, 3.8 WAR; Taijuan Walker, 2.4 WAR, Ranger Suarez, 2.4 WAR, Christopher Sanchez, 1.8 WAR. Note, also, that having three pitchers who made 30 starts makes this rotation a big time outlier.
2022: Houston Astros, 19.2 WAR
Starters who made 30 starts: 1
Starters who made 20 starts: 5
Starters who made 10 starts: 6
Total starters: 8
How did they do it?
Guys, I’m starting to think health has a lot to do with starting pitching success. Once again, we see a team that essentially used only six starters for the whole season. And, once again, we have a rotation that was led by an ace at the top. In this case it was Justin Verlander, who put up 6.1 WAR after missing the entire season the year prior. Unlike the 2024 Braves and 2023 Phillies, though, Verlander had a 1b in Framber Valdez, whose 4.4 WAR was good for 11th in all of baseball. The rest of the 2022 Astros rotation was filled out by solid but unspectacular performances by Christian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Jake Odorizzi.
2021: Los Angeles Dodgers, 20.8 WAR
Starters who made 30 starts: 2
Starters who made 20 starts: 3
Starters who made 10 starts: 7
Total starters: 19
How did they do it?
Holy freaking depth! Three-fifths of the planned 2021 Dodgers rotation — Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Trevor Bauer — all missed significant chunks of the season. Kershaw was sidelined for two months in the middle of the summer. May went down for the year after making just five starts. And Trevor Bauer missed the final three months of the season after he was suspended for being a piece of shit. And the man who started the year as the team’s sixth starter, Tony Gonsolin, also had two lengthy stints on the IL.
The Dodgers dealt with these absences by moving David Price from the bullpen to the rotation in the middle of the season (he would go on to start 11 games, providing 0.8 WAR in those starts), trading for Max Scherzer (who was outstanding in his 11 starts for the team, putting up 2.9 WAR), and using a lot of openers.
When fans and analysts talk about the importance of starting pitching depth in contemporary baseball, the 2021 Dodgers are the type of team they’re thinking of. But it’s important to note that this rotation was anchored by two aces at the top, as Walker Buehler and Julio Urias each started over 30 games and finished fourth and seventh, respectively, in starting pitching WAR.
So what needs to happen for the 2026 Red Sox to have the best rotation in baseball? The health of Garrett Crochet is the most important factor here, obviously. Each of these five teams had at least one pitcher who compiled at least 5 fWAR for the year. For as deep as the Red Sox pitching is, Crochet is probably the only player on the Red Sox currently capable of doing that. If he goes down, the Sox have no chance of having the best rotation in baseball, no matter how much depth they have.
Second, this list shows us that, despite all the emphasis on depth, the best rotations tend to use essentially only six pitchers over the course of the season. This isn’t to say that depth is overrated — the 2024 Braves performing as well as they did despite losing Spencer Strider shows us that it’s not. But it does mean that it’s really hard to have an elite rotation if you’re forced to rely on your depth too much. The 2021 Dodgers are very much the outliers here.
So, to have the best rotation in baseball, the Sox will likely need (1) at least one ace at the top of the rotation, and (2) 3-4 other starters who stay healthy and post around 2-3.5 WAR. It’s in this second factor that the Sox’ depth comes into play. If Sonny Gray has a disappointing season (not an unreasonable thing to worry about as he’s 36-years-old), can Patrick Sandoval replace his innings with the near-all-star level pitching he provided from 2022 through 2024? If Ranger Suarez or Brayan Bello goes down for the year (and you know someone will!) can Connelly Early or Payton Tolle step in and step up?
We’ll find out the answer to the question posed in this headline soon enough. But in light of that fact that we are just a few years removed from watching Corey Kluber take the ball on opening day, the mere fact that we can genuinely ask it is a wonderful thing.
The Texas Rangers addressed the hole in their 2026 rotation in dramatic fashion on Thursday, trading five minor leaguers to the Washington Nationals to acquire lefthanded starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore. So let’s talk about this deal, and what the Rangers are getting in Gore.
Start with the basics. Gore is a lefty who turns 27 in February, listed at 6’2”, 193 lbs. He is under contract for the 2026 season at $5.6 million, and has four years of service time, so (assuming the next CBA doesn’t change initial team control rules) Gore will be arbitration eligible for the 2027 season as well, and will be eligible for free agency after that.
The San Diego Padres took Gore #3 overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, after Royce Lewis and Hunter Greene, and right before Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright. Of the players drafted and signed in the first round in 2017, Gore’s career 6.0 bWAR is the sixth highest, behind Greene, Trevor Rogers, Brent Rooker, Tanner Houck, and David Peterson. Jake Burger, incidentally, is 8th on that list. It wasn’t a great first round.
Gore was highly rated on the prospect lists until an awful 2021 season, which saw him generally drop to the bottom of, or out of, top 100 lists. However, he was good enough in the spring of 2022 to earn a spot on the San Diego Padres Opening Day roster, and other than the occasional rehab assignment, he’s been in the majors ever since, mostly with the Washington Nationals, who the Padres traded him to as part of the Juan Soto deal. Gore was on the injured list when he was traded, and wasn’t activated from it the remainder of 2022, so he didn’t pitch for the Nationals until the following year.
For the Nats, he made 27 starts in 2023, totaling 136 innings, with a 4.42 ERA, 4.89 FIP, and 5.20 xERA (coincidentally, the same xERA he had in his 16 appearances for San Diego in 2022). Not great. He showed improvement in 2024, putting up a 3.90 ERA, a 4.19 xERA and a 3.53 FIP, and more or less stayed steady in 2025, with a 4.17 ERA, 4.33 xERA and 3.74 FIP.
Over the past two seasons, Gore has put up 3.8 bWAR and 6.1 fWAR, with his FIP being better than his ERA causing the fair sized spread between the two metrics. He’s been a 2-3 win per season pitcher. His bWAR in that stretch is tied for 53rd among major league starting pitchers, an ordinal slot he shares with Zac Gallen, Jose Quintana and Tanner Bibee, as well as (in many fewer innings) Tyler Glasnow and Noah Cameron. Within a couple of bWAR either direction, and with similar games started, are are Bailey Ober, Jose Berrios, Jack Flaherty, and Luis Castillo.
Prior to yesterday, the 2026 Texas Rangers had had a rather aching need for a capable major league starting pitcher to ink, rather than pencil, into its rotation. Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom are a very solid top of the rotation, though injury issues are a concern. Jack Leiter had a solid first full season in the majors in 2025, and could well take the next step in 2026 and establish himself as a quality #3 starter, but expecting him to be the #3 on a team with playoff aspirations right now would seem to be aggressively optimistic.
But even if you are comfortable with Leiter as your #3, your final two spots are still an issue. Absent any other moves, Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz would be filling those roles. Rocker, in what was really his first full season as a professional, having signed in 2022 and missed the bulk of 2023 and 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, showed flashes of what he was capable of, but overall was not good in the bigs in 2025. And Latz hasn’t been a regular starter since 2021, working largely out of the pen since then, and functioning as a swingman for the major league club in 2025.
Behind them, well, the options are underwhelming. Jose Corniell looked good in 13 appearances in the minors after returning from Tommy John surgery (though not so good in 5 AFL appearances), but after missing all of 2024 and most of 2025, he’s probably not ready to handle a major league workload, and with only 34 innings above A ball, he’s probably not ready to handle major league hitters. David Davalillo and Leandro Lopez were added to the 40 man roster, but each has just a half season at AA and no time at AAA, and they are probably a year away from being asked to do anything but temporarily patch over a spot on the major league staff in an emergency. Patrick Murphy is back on a minor league deal, after impressing in camp last spring, pitching well in Round Rock, getting hurt, and then de-camping for the KBO for the second half of the 2026 season, but you aren’t really going to want to count on him to meaningfully contribute to the major league rotation.
Cody Bradford is due back, per reports, sometime in May, after undergoing internal brace surgery last year. He was very good in the rotation in 2024 when he was healthy, but only pitched in 14 games because, well, he wasn’t healthy enough. I imagine the plan is to have Bradford — who turns 28 next month, and thus isn’t really a youngster — join the rotation once he’s built up his pitch count on a rehab assignment, and so you can say that the situation is less dire once he’s ready.
But Bradford has an injury history, dating back to college — he dropped to the 6th round in 2019 because he missed most of his junior year due to Thoracic Outlet Surgery — so one has to be concerned about his ability to stay on the mound. And that’s before taking into account the workload issues, given he threw just 82 innings in 2024 and 0 in 2025. Again, he’s in his late 20s, so the workload concerns are less than with someone like Corniell, but it is still an issue.
So throughout the offseason, adding an established, competent major league starter to the rotation seemed like a no-brainer, given that the organization has playoff aspirations. While the trade market was always a possibility, it seemed more likely the team would be poking around in the free agent market, particularly the lower end, given the team’s reported budgetary constraints. And with Chris Young publicly stating in recent weeks that the team wanted to improve its “starting pitching depth,” versus just saying its “starting pitching,” my expectations, at least, were dampened. I was fearful Young was talking adding “starting pitching depth” in the sense of bringing back someone like Patrick Corbin, or even worse, adding NRIs to potentially compete for a rotation spot, rather than getting someone that you would have a degree of confidence in.
So getting Gore was a pleasant surprise. He’s under contract for $5.6 million for 2026, a dollar amount that, as I pointed out yesterday in the comments (though one should never read the comments, of course), is pretty much what Shawn Armstrong got on a one year deal a month or so ago. In a free agent market where Adrian Houser got 2 years, $22 million, $5.6 million for a 2-3 win pitcher is a coup, especially when one considers that Gore isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2027.
All that being said, what is more intriguing about this deal is the potential upside that MacKenzie Gore offers.
I mentioned yesterday that I could see Chris Young viewing this as potentially his version of the trade the Houston Astros made almost a decade ago for Gerrit Cole. Cole, like Gore, was a former top draft pick and top 10 prospect — he was taken #1 out of UCLA in 2011, having famously spurned the Yankees in 2008 after they took him with their first round pick that year. Cole, like Gore, had been a (pro-rated) 2-3 win pitcher the previous two seasons, though unlike Gore, he did have a really good season earlier in his career, one that saw him get Cy Young and MVP votes. Cole, like Gore, was seen as someone whose results were not as good as his stuff would suggest that they should be. Cole, like Gore, was shipped out with two years of team control remaining, for a quantity-over-quality package (the Pirates received Michael Feliz, Jason Martin, Colin Moran and Joe Musgrove*).
* The big difference between what the Astros gave up and what the Rangers gave up is that Texas traded guys who are mostly years away, while the Pirates got young major leaguers or guys who were, theoretically, major league ready.
We know what happened after that. The Astros worked with Cole on some changes, and he blew up, putting up 12 bWAR in his two seasons with the Astros, finishing 5th and 2nd in the Cy Young balloting, and signing a gigantic deal with the New York Yankees, for whom he has won a Cy Young Award as well as collecting a second and fourth place finish.
I don’t think the Rangers make this trade if they don’t think they have the potential to unlock…I hesitate similar improvements from Gore, because that would mean turning him immediately into one of the best pitchers in baseball. So I will say, the potential unlock significant improvements that could make him a front of the rotation starter.
Gore was a five pitch pitcher in 2025 who threw four of his pitches 95% of the time. He was a fastball/curveball/slider/changeup guy his first two years in the majors, and threw the changeup rarely. In 2024, he largely junked the slider (he threw it 38 times that year, along with 16 sweepers) and added a cutter. In 2025, he brought the slider back and reduced his use of the cutter.
In terms of his utilization of his pitches, lefties saw mostly sliders (44.3%) and fastballs (42.3%), with the occasional curveball (12.4%) mixed in, along with 7 cutters. His slider was extremely effective against lefties (.219 wOBA and .225 xwOBA), while his fastball was…not (.451 wOBA and .387 xwOBA). Against righthanded hitters, he throws a little over half fastballs, a little over a quarter curveballs, with the remaining 20% roughly two-thirds changeups and one-thirds cutters. The results on his fastball are okay, and the xwOBA on the other three pitches against righties are all below .300, though his changeup has had a negative run value each of the last two seasons, per Statcast, due largely to his inability to consistently throw it close enough to the strike zone for batters to swing at.
Gore throws hard but none of his pitches have a ton of movement, particularly horizontally — other than his cutter, all his pitches had below-average horizontal movement last year, and only his fastball and curveball (fortunately, his most used pitches) have above-average vertical movement. If you look at Statcast’s list of similar pitchers based on velocity and movement, #2 is 2025 Jacob Latz, which, well…that’s not terribly encouraging. Yusei Kikuchi’s 2024 and 2025 seasons, along with 2022 seasons from Daniel Lynch IV and Kyle Muller, round out the five in the list.
What Gore does have, though, is great extension — 86th percentile in 2025, and that was the lowest percentile placement he’s had in his four years in the majors — which allows his pitches to play up. That helps explain why he’s able to successfully miss bats — his 27.2% K rate was in the 80th percentile in 2025, as was his 29.7% whiff rate, while his 29.9% chase rate is in the 70th percentile.
While Gore’s bat-missing ability is very strong, what has held him back is a lack of command. That is reflected in both his walk rate — 9.1% the past two seasons, 9.6% for his career, both below average — and in the quality of contact he gives up when batters do make contact off of him. One can look at his BABIP and see a career BABIP allowed of .324, with a BABIP of .325 and .340 the last two years, and chalk up the spread between his FIP and ERA to bad defense. Just getting him to Texas — a team that won the Gold Glove for team defense in 2025 — and that should fix the problem, one would assume.
Alas, it is not that simple. Gore’s command issues manifest, not just in having trouble throwing strikes, but also in not throwing quality strikes. While batters swing and miss off of him a lot, when they do make contact, they make loud contact. His barrel% and hard hit% has been in the bottom 15th percent every year except 2024, and his xwOBA on contact for his career is .404, including a .403 mark in 2025, compared the to MLB average of .369. The result is a career HR/9 rate of 1.17 (1.13 in 2025), and the 10th highest BABIP in 2025 out of 117 MLB pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.
For the first three months of 2025, he appeared to have figured things out. There were 103 pitchers who throw at least 2000 pitches in the bigs in 2025, and through the end of June, Gore’s wOBA and xwOBA were both .294 — that xwOBA was the 20th best in the first three months of the season out of those 103 pitchers. He had a 3.09 ERA and a 2.97 FIP, which are outstanding numbers, and rightly earned him a spot on the National League All Star team.
That performance was largely driven by a 31.7% K rate and a 33.0% whiff rate — the only pitchers with a higher whiff rate in the first three months were Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease and Tarik Skubal. The problem with loud contact, however, hadn’t gone away — his wOBA and xwOBA on contact were both .398, and that xwOBA on contact placed him 91st out of those 103 pitchers in the first three months of the season. Its just that he generated enough Ks, and avoided enough walks, to be able to be great despite that.
As you can probably already guess, Gore was not able to sustain that over the final three months of the season. He allowed a .363 xwOBA in the second half, worse than all but 12 of the 103 pitchers with at least 2000 pitches in 2025. His whiff rate dropped to 24.7%, 47th best, and his K rate dropped to 20.4%, while his walk rate jumped from 7.3% to 12.4%. If we ignore his first two starts in July (which were both good), and look at just his results in the second half of the season, he put up a 6.75 ERA and a 5.49 FIP. That is…bad.
I will note that Gore did have two brief injured list stints in the second half, one in late August due to shoulder inflammation, one late in the year an ankle impingement that ended his season. If one is an optimistic, one can certainly choose to believe that the second half dip was due to physical issues, and that if he’s fully healthy he’ll pitch like he did in the first half of the season.
One could also say that his second half numbers are skewed by a horrendous four start stretch right after the All Star Game, when he allowed 23 runs in 15.2 innings, walked 11 guys, allowed six home runs, and struck out just 10 batters, and if we take his six starts from there until his penultimate start of the year, and ignore his final start, when he allowed four runs in two innings but * hand waves * that was probably because of the ankle injury that resulted in him going on the injured list the next day, he put up a 2.84 ERA and 3.23 FIP. Of course, you can make a whole lot of pitchers look really good if you just ignore their worst starts.
Also, interestingly, we saw the same sort of split in performance in 2024 as in 2025, albeit in a less extreme fashion. Gore was 40th out of 103 pitchers in xwOBA through the end of June in 2024, and 73rd from July 1 on.
So what is our takeaway from all this?
Gore has the ability to be a front line starter. He has pitched like a front line starter in the first three months of each of the past two seasons, and pitched like a legitimate #1 starter in the first half of the 2025 season. Given that he was touted as a potential front line starter leading into the 2017 draft, and then through most of his minor league career, that isn’t really surprising.
The question is whether Gore can be a front line starter consistently — put up a full season performance worthy of a #1 or #2 starter. The question is whether going from the Nationals — who have been terrible the entire time Gore has been there — to the Rangers will make a difference, whether the Rangers can work with Gore to make improvements to allow him to tighten his command, make adjustments with his pitches and/or pitch selection, that will allow him to take a step forward.
If that happens — if Gore can consistently perform at the level he has in the first half of the past two seasons — then this trade is a home run for the Rangers. They will have gotten two cost-controlled seasons of a legitimate TORP for a package that is much less than what a cost-controlled TORP commands.
And if that doesn’t happen, and Gore ends up being a 2-3 win pitcher the next couple of seasons…well, the Rangers would still have a guy who is worthy of being in the rotation of a playoff team, something that they really needed to add this offseason anyway.
The Mets' offseason started to unfold in shocking fashion with a trio of rapid succession moves that shook the core of the team.
Brandon Nimmo was traded to the Rangers for Marcus Semien.
Edwin Diaz left for the Dodgers.
Pete Alonso left for the Orioles.
In the case of Nimmo, the Mets smartly decided to get out from under the five years remaining on his deal ahead of his age-33 season.
When it came to Alonso, the Mets decided it was best to move on, allowing him to bolt to Baltimore on a five-year deal worth $155 million.
The Diaz situation was complicated, with him wanting to return but leaving for the Dodgers after something seemingly went haywire toward the end of his contract negotiations.
As recently as 10 days ago, the Mets were still very much an unfinished product. They had added Semien's Gold Glove to second base, Devin Williams to close, Luke Weaver to set up, and Jorge Polanco to help fill the void left by Alonso. But David Stearns' full plan hadn't yet come into focus.
With the heavy lifting now done and the team transformed, here is our way-too-early prediction for what the 26-man roster will look like on Opening Day...
REGULAR LINEUP
Francisco Alvarez: C Jorge Polanco: 1B Marcus Semien: 2B Francisco Lindor: SS Bo Bichette: 3B Carson Benge: LF Luis Robert Jr.: CF Juan Soto: RF Brett Baty: DH
There are three big questions here: Will Polanco see most of his time at first base, who will the regular left fielder be, and who will get the bulk of the at-bats at designated hitter?
Polanco, a natural middle infielder who began working out at first base while with the Mariners last season and has continued learning the intricacies of the position this winter, figures to adapt well. In a world where he doesn't, or if the Mets simply want to get him off his feet, they could theoretically try Baty at first base and use Polanco to DH.
Oct 13, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Mariners infielder Jorge Polanco (7) throws to first base for the first out in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game two of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
As far as left field, Stearns reiterated after the addition of Robert that Benge will be given a chance to win the job. The club is very high on Benge, as evidenced by the chance he'll get this spring and their refusal to discuss him in trades this winter.
In his first full season in professional ball in 2025, Benge slashed .281/.385/.472 with 15 home runs, 25 doubles, seven triples, and 22 stolen bases across three levels -- finishing up with 24 games for Triple-A Syracuse.
While Benge hit a bit of a speed bump in Triple-A, it was a very small sample size, and he was also dealing with an injury after getting hit by a pitch in the wrist in August.
Shortly after the 2025 season ended, Stearns cited a need to be more proactive going forward. Having Benge on the roster from the jump is one way to do that.
When it comes to DH, that feels like a spot that should be split between Baty and Mark Vientos. Yes, Baty can fill in at third base, second base, left field, and perhaps first base. But his best chance for consistent at-bats could be at DH.
STARTING ROTATION
Freddy Peralta: RHP Nolan McLean: RHP Sean Manaea: LHP Clay Holmes: RHP David Peterson: LHP Kodai Senga: RHP
With the Mets having six legitimate big league starting pitching options, using a six-man rotation feels like a no-brainer.
It makes even more sense when you consider that McLean will be in his first full big league season, Holmes is coming off a year where he had the most innings he's ever pitched (by far), Peterson is also coming off a career-high in innings, and Senga is best-suited on an every-sixth-day schedule.
Beyond the main six expected starters is intriguing depth.
Sep 18, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jonah Tong (21) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Citi Field. / Brad Penner - Imagn Images
Jonah Tong, who showed serious flashes during his debut late last season, figures to open the season with Triple-A Syracuse.
The 22-year-old made only two starts in Triple-A last season before being promoted to the majors, so it's fair to believe he can benefit from the ability to refine his arsenal there for a bit before coming back up.
Then there's Christian Scott, who missed the entire 2025 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery but who should be fully healthy and ready to go.
Meanwhile, prospects Jonathan Santucci and Jack Wenninger could possibly reach the majors in 2026.
Williams, Weaver, Raley, and Garcia are locks. And A.J. Minter will be in the 'pen once he's fully healthy. But it's likely that Minter will need a few extra weeks to get ready after recovering from lat surgery. That would leave three open spots for Opening Day.
While Myers can be optioned to the minors, there's really no reason for the Mets to go that route unless they're facing a serious numbers crunch.
May 5, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Tobias Myers (36) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros at American Family Field. / Jeff Hanisch - Imagn Images
Myers was used mainly as a starter in 2024 before transitioning to mostly a relief role in 2025 -- and Stearns suggested after acquiring him that Myers will be used in relief, with the Mets having the ability to stretch him out if needed.
In 28.1 innings over 16 appearances as a reliever in 2025, Myers had a 1.91 ERA and 0.91 WHIP while posting a strikeout to walk rate of 6.67.
Brazoban pitched relatively well last season and figures to get a crack from the outset.
Then there's Alzolay, who can be a serious weapon if healthy.
Other options include hard-throwing prospects Dylan Ross and Ryan Lambert, as well as Jonathan Pintaro, Alex Carrillo, and Joey Gerber.
BENCH
Tyrone Taylor: OF Luis Torrens: C Mark Vientos: INF Vidal Brujan: UTIL
Barring a trade, Taylor, Torrens, and Vientos are locks.
And if the Mets go with a six-man rotation, that leaves just one more bench spot.
It could theoretically go to Ronny Mauricio, but it can be argued that he's better off getting regular at-bats in the minors.
Jared Young is another option.
But no one can match the positional versatility of Brujan, who is able to play literally every spot except catcher.
Aroon Escobar – 104 Dante Nori – 52 Francisco Renteria – 42 Gabriel Rincones – 34 Moises Chace – 10 Matthew Fisher – 6
The Phillies don’t have a deep farm system. On this, we can all agree. You can blame some of it on poor player development, where they have struggled to take players they have drafted and turn them into major league quality players. You can also blame some of that on trades, using the farm system as a way to bring back already developed major league talent, a maneuver that thins out a system rather quickly. What they have now is three clear cut top prospect, a fourth that might enter that tier this year and Escobar. He’s got the feel of former Phillies prospect Hao Yu Lee where he might be a good bat, but is he impact-ish? Can he play the field well enough?
Or is he the next big trade piece?
That’s going to be the question for the next several players on this list: will they be in the system long enough to debut with the Phillies, or will they be the next in a line of players that gets dealt in July?
Personally, as you can read from the below scouting report, Escobar seems like a bat that the team might want to hang on to to potentially fill in for Bryson Stott in a few years if he’s ready at something of a cheaper cost than it would be to extend Stott, but development isn’t linear. We’ll have to wait and see.
Escobar has a compact, quick right-handed swing. His analytic hit tool markers are also very good for a low-minors level: he makes a well above-average amount of contact and is aggressive within the strike zone without chasing at a concerning clip. So while there isn’t a “future batting champion” hit tool projection here, we feel pretty comfortable projecting an above-average outcome. And that projection comes with non-zero power output, as he clocked 15 homers across the minor-league season with a near-105 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity at Low-A, suggesting that pop is real.
Defensively, he settled in at second base for almost all of his 2025 action after bouncing around the infield previously.
With each new post, we’ll reveal who won the voting for that particular slot, then post new players for you to vote on, adding another one to the list each time until we get to our final tally of 20. Once we get to 20 top prospects, we’ll do an honorable mention post at the end. If a player gets traded to another team, we’ll just chuck him right on outta here and all the players will move up a spot. If a prospect gets acquired, we’ll ask where he should go on the list.
Probably the most important thing about this whole process – please vote. Give us a few minutes of your time, just click a button and then we can discuss other players and things in the comment section, but don’t forget – VOTE!
In this episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast, Jeremy “Hokius” Greco breaks down one of the most intriguing moves of the MLB offseason: the New York Mets’ trade for Freddy Peralta. Using the Mets and Brewers as case studies, Jeremy examines how aggressive roster building contrasts with the growing risk aversion among mid-tier teams—including the Kansas City Royals.
The discussion explores what Peralta’s move means for Milwaukee’s long-term outlook, why teams in the Royals’ competitive tier often hesitate to spend, and how that caution can limit true contention. Jeremy argues that the current MLB landscape rewards teams willing to push beyond their comfort zones—and challenges the Royals to decide whether they want to follow or fall behind in an increasingly polarized league.
The Yankees of the mid-2000s were a team that had grown long in the tooth, particularly in the rotation. A team already leaning heavy on veterans: namely Mike Mussina, well into his thirties, and Randy Johnson, who had already blown out 40 candles. Ahead of the 2007 season, Johnson returned to Arizona, but the Yankees simply swapped out senior southpaws, bringing back a soon-to-be-35-year-old Andy Pettitte to take the Big Unit’s rotation spot.
So, what do you do when most of your best players are on the opposite side of 30? Sign a 44-year old starting pitcher a few months into the season. What’s one more?
Of course, said 44-year-old was Roger Clemens, one of the most prolific and dominant starting pitchers of all time. The Rocket had won a pair of titles with the Yankees in 1999 and 2000 before capturing the 2001 AL Cy Young Award. It seemed like he would retire a Yankee, as he told the media that ’03 would be his last season. But after the Yankees let Pettitte walk in free agency to the Astros, Clemens was convinced to change his mind and lead their rotation with Pettitte, just as he had in New York. It was a homecoming for the graduate of Houston’s own Spring Woods High School, and it turned out that Clemens had more in the tank, winning his seventh Cy Young in ’04 and having the case for another in ’05 with a league-leading 1.87 ERA for the NL champions.
Clemens kept considering retirement though, and despite pitching for Team USA in the inaugural World Baseball Classic, he chose to remain unsigned as Opening Day 2006 came and went. The Astros were determined to have him back, and on May 31st, they got their man on a prorated contract that also allowed him to skip certain road trips. Following another stellar season in his forties however, Clemens was again leaning toward retirement as he skipped Opening Day 2007.
Once more, the Rocket was convinced for another relaunch. But this time, he was coming back for one last ride in pinstripes. After showing up out of nowhere in George Steinbrenner’s box at Yankee Stadium and announcing his return mere days after Hughes’ injury, Clemens put together a perfectly cromulent final campaign in MLB — but the Yankees would fall in the Division Series for the third consecutive season.
Roger Clemens Signing Date: May 6, 2007 Contract: One year, $28 million (prorated to $18.5 million)
First, we have to talk about the spectacle at the Stadium that May afternoon. The Yankees had gotten off to their typical-of-this-era cold start, going 9-14 in April and entering their Sunday matinée with the Mariners two games under .500. They’d endured a slew of injuries to start the season that had already cost their strength and conditioning coach his job. The most painful one yet hit rookie standout Phil Hughes, who had to be pulled from a no-hitter in the seventh with a hamstring strain on May 1st.
New York needed a morale boost. So, at the seventh-inning stretch, with the Yankees leading 3-0, Clemens made his dramatic re-entrance.
Clemens’ short speech was not an all-timer, but there was an undeniable show-business element to the whole affair that we rarely see in sports outside of pro wrestling. Of course, fans at the ballpark and watching on TV could watch the whole thing play out, but those tuning into WCBS’s radio broadcast of the game would need to be told what was happening.
Of course, we are big fans of Suzyn here on Pinstripe Alley, so it is with great appreciation that I say her introduction of Clemens was a bit much. “Oh my goodness gracious! Of all the dramatic things I’ve ever seen — Roger Clemens standing right in George Steinbrenner’s box, announcing he is back! Roger Clemens is a New York Yankee!” she proclaimed. It’s safe to say the former theatre actress appreciated the drama of the moment, but the soundbite would take on a life of its own.
Clemens signed a one-year deal valued at $28 million. It was prorated to $18.5 million though since he signed late and did not make his season debut until June 9th, and in the meantime, he tuned up in the minors with Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Let’s go ahead and fast-forward to June 9th. The Yankees were in a similar spot to where they were when Clemens announced he was back, sitting at 28-31 and battling Baltimore and Toronto for second place in the AL East, well behind the front-running Red Sox (39-21). Thankfully, the Rocket was in good form after the long layoff.
With the Pirates in town, Clemens pitched six strong innings, allowing three runs on five hits while striking out seven batters in a 9-4 win.
After this game, the Yankees would go 65-37 the rest of the way, though not because Clemens was at the top of his game. To be sure, there were sprinkles of vintage Rocket here and there, like consecutive eight-inning, one run efforts to begin July — which helped pare down his ERA from 5.32 to 3.64, the lowest it would go during the year. The first of those, a victory over the Twins, was the 350th win of his MLB career.
Regrettably, there were also some ugly nights, like August 2nd, when two days before his 45th birthday, Clemens was chased from the game after allowing eight runs in the second inning (only three of them were charged as earned runs due to a two-out error by Robinson Canó). This was clearly not the same Clemens who had recently won further accolades in Houston despite his age. This Clemens could usually scrape by, but couldn’t lead a playoff rotation.
Still, the Yankees’s second-half surge had begun in earnest, and they polished off the regular campaign by going 19-8 in September, securing the American League Wild Card spot. Clemens finished his final season with an even 6-6 record across 18 appearances (17 starts and one relief appearance) and 99 innings. He pitched to a 4.18 ERA (108 ERA+) with 68 strikeouts and a 1.313 WHIP — not too shabby for a guy who was born when Eleanor Roosevelt was still alive. Clemens’ last regular season start, fittingly, came at Fenway Park, where he held his original team to one unearned run on two hits in six frames. The Yankees won, 4-3.
As the Wild Card team, the Yankees would travel to Jacobs Field to square off with Cleveland in the ALDS. Cleveland that year boasted an intimidating pitching staff led by AL Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia and Roberto Hernández — then known under his nom de guerre, Fausto Carmona. But in Game 1, it was Cleveland’s bats who led the way, clobbering Chien-Ming Wang and the Yankee pitching staff in a 12-3 win. Then in Game 2, the infamous Midges Game of Joba Chamberlain lore, Carmona dominated and the Bombers were walked off by Travis Hafner in the 11th inning.
So the Yankees went back to the Bronx fighting for their playoff lives as Clemens got the ball for Game 3. His start didn’t go as he might have hoped, with Cleveland scoring a run in the first and the second. In the third inning, after striking out Víctor Martínez with a man aboard, Joe Torre came to the mound. The trainer came with him, and Clemens subsequently exited with a hamstring strain, walking off a major-league mound one last time.
Hughes was brilliant in relief as the Yankees came back to win Game 3, 8-4. That was unfortunately the last gasp of the Torre Era Yankees, and they fell 6-4 the following night. They had been eliminated in the ALDS for the third-straight season and the fourth time in six years.
The surprise return of Roger Clemens to the Bronx had all the pomp and circumstance of a hero returning home. But the Texan flamethrower, fighting against Father Time, provided only a modest boost for a team already fully-stocked with late-career stars. This would probably have been the end for Clemens regardless, but the decision was made for him two months after his final start, when he was named as a PED user in the Mitchell Report. He became a lightning rod that no one wanted to touch, and his Hall of Fame trajectory was perhaps permanently imploded.
That 2007 playoff series was the last the old Yankee Stadium would ever host. In a few short years, there would be a new Yankee Stadium. Both Clemens and the old yard would soon enter baseball’s past together, and Clemens was acutely aware of just how little time he had left in the House that Ruth Built. After his first start of the season, he told reporters, “I’ve got to take a little deep breath now… this Stadium’s not going to be around much longer. It sure is a joy.”
See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.
Will Watson inherited athletic genes from his father, Brad, who played football for Puget Sound University, and baseball skill from his stepfather, Pat, who played baseball at Pacific Lutheran University. He attended Burlington Edison High School in Burlington, Washington, where he played varsity baseball for three seasons, as well as basketball and cross-country track. He earned Washington All-State honors in his senior season in 2021, posting a 0.24 ERA in 29.2 innings with 57 strikeouts. He went undrafted and after graduating and attended California Lutheran University in 2022, where he posted a 1.82 ERA in 34.2 innings with 18 hits allowed, 13 walks, and 40 strikeouts. Additionally, he appeared in 36 games as an infielder and hit .247/.346/.371 with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 0 home runs, 4 stolen bases in 5 attempts, and drew 10 walks to 29 strikeouts.
He transferred from Cal Lutheran and attended San Joaquin Delta College in 2023, appearing in 19 games for them, starting five. He posted a 2.97 ERA in 57.2 innings for the Mustangs, allowing 31 hits, walking 21, and striking out 82. The Seattle Mariners selected the right-hander in the 20th round of the 2023 MLB Draft, the 607th player selected overall, but he elected not to sign with his hometown club. Instead, he transferred to the University of Southern California for his junior season. He appeared in 16 games for the Trojans, starting 9, and posted a 3.93 ERA in 50.1 innings with 44 hits allowed, 27 walks, and 46 strikeouts. The Mets selected Watson with their 7th round selection in the 2024 draft, the 203rd pick overall, and signed him for $281,300, just slightly below the MLB-assigned slot value of $283,800. He was assigned to the St. Lucie Mets and allowed one run in 2.2 innings, giving up 2 hits, walking 1, and striking out 3.
Based on his pitching profile, Amazin’ Avenue ranked Watson the Mets’ 22nd top prospect coming into the 2025 season and the right-hander did not disappoint. Initially assigned to the Single-A St. Lucie Mets, Watson posted a 3.66 ERA in 39.1 innings, allowing 30 hits, walking 21, and striking out 43. He was promoted to High-A Brooklyn at the beginning of June and spent most of the summer in Coney Island, posting a 1.70 ERA in 63.2 innings, allowing 45 hits, walking 28, and striking out 77. At the end of August, he was promoted to Double-A Binghamton and ended the year with the Rumble Ponies, posting a 3.44 ERA in 18.1 innings, allowing 13 hits, walking 9, and striking out 22. All in all, the 22-year-old posted a cumulative 2.60 ERA in 121.1 innings over 28 games- 23 starts- allowing 88 hits, walking 58, and striking out 142.
Watson is slightly on the smaller side for a pitcher, standing 6’1” and weighing 180-pounds, but he is athletic. The right-hander throws from a low-three-quarters arm slot with a long, whippy arm action through the back. He drops and drives and gets good extension off the mound but is prone to rushing his delivery and having his upper and lower halves come out of sync and flying out early, negatively impacting his command. While not violent per se, Watson also throws with effort, which could be a health concern in the future given his stature and also can negatively impact his command.
Watson utilizes a five-pitch mix, throwing a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, circle changeup, slider and cutter. He primarily relies on his fastball and slider combo, liberally sprinkling in his changeup, cutter, and sinker depending on the batter and the situation he finds himself in. He works better east-to-west on the strength of his slider, his command sometimes negatively affecting his ability to work in the upper parts of the strike zone with his four-seam fastball or the bottom of it with his changeup.
His four-seam fastball is an above-average pitch at present. Watson experienced a bit of a velocity boost upon going pro, something he attributes to having access to professional workout equipment and elite coaching, and the pitch now sits comfortably in the mid-90s rather than the low-to-mid-90s, topping out at 97 MPH. With above-average spin rates, Watson has been able to regularly post slightly above-average induced vertical break measurements with the pitch as well as slightly above-average run, though working up in the zone to take advantage of that rising life has not been intuitive for Watson, whose arm slot and command problems cause the pitch to play down up in the zone. His two-seam fastball sits in the same velocity band and is almost identical to his four-seam fastball except for the extra arm-side run that it has.
Watson’s slider is his primary strikeout pitch against right-handed batters. Sitting in the mid-80s, his slider has also seen a slight velocity bump since turning pro and has improved from a fringe average offering to a slightly above-average pitch as a result. While not his best secondary pitch, it is his go-to, featuring sharp gyroscopic break recently tightened up by his 2025 velocity gains, improving its shape. The right-hander is able to throw the pitch to both sides of the plate, backfooting it to left-handed hitters and throwing it away to right-handed hitters. Watson’s cutter, in a vacuum, is a below-average pitch, having recently learned it from fellow farmhand Joel Pintaro over the winter, but when used in conjunction with his slider, is an effective combination, as the cutter sets up the slider.
His circle changeup is his primary strikeout pitch against left-handed hitters. The pitch sits in the upper-80s, also slightly up as compared to his college days. With a high spin rate for a changeup, it has less tumble than average, but a lot more arm-side fade. Like his slider, Watson can throw it to both sides of the plate, generally working down in the zone.
2026 Mets Top 25 Prospect List
10) Jack Wenninger 11) Mitch Voit 12) Jonathan Santucci 13) Elian Peña 14) Zach Thornton 15) Nick Morabito 16) R.J. Gordon 17) Chris Suero 18) Dylan Ross 19) Ryan Lambert 20) Antonio Jimenez 21) Edward Lantigua 22) Eli Serrano III 23) Randy Guzman 24) Daiverson Gutierrez 25) Boston Baro
After nearly 6 months of trade speculation, Paul Toboni finally got a MacKenzie Gore deal done, sending the left-hander to the Texas Rangers in exchange for 5 prospects. While none of the 5 prospects acquired for Gore are top 100 prospects on any major publications currently, they all have unique skillsets that could put them in those talks in the upcoming 2026 season.
Of the 5 prospects, the most highly touted is shortstop Gavin Fien, the 12th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. Fien was MLB Pipeline’s 22nd-ranked prospect and my 15th-ranked prospect in the 2025 draft class, and was a favorite of many draft analysts who especially value summer circuit performance. In the summer of 2024, before Fien’s senior year, he demolished the top prep pitching in the country, hitting .450 with a 1.262 OPS in 68 plate appearances. The underlying numbers backed up Fien’s great success as well, most notably an 81st percentile contact rate, 90th percentile strikeout rate, and 97th percentile bat speed.
Much of the Red Sox scouting department loved Gavin Fien in the 2025 Draft. He had real buzz in the top five or six picks. Boston was seen as the floor.
Fien seemed destined to skyrocket up draft boards, but an odd senior season at Great Oaks High School in California held that back somewhat. He still finished his senior season with a 1.056 OPS, but he got off to a slow start to the year and finished below his sophomore and junior years’ marks of 1.133 and 1.147. Even without a ridiculous senior campaign, Fien still made himself a lot of money in the draft, going 12th overall to the Texas Rangers for a signing bonus of 4.8 million, with reports he was under consideration by the Cardinals and Pirates with their first round picks, 5th and 6th overall, respectivelly, as well.
According to Joe Doyle of Over-Slot, a fantastic site that covers the MLB draft extensively, the Red Sox scouting department was enamored by Fien’s abilities pre-draft, and it seems likely he would have been their pick if he had made it to 15th overall. With Paul Toboni and many of his Red Sox colleagues now in DC, they bring in a prospect they were very high on in last year’s draft class, someone they saw the potential to be a star in.
Fien’s professional debut after the draft in 2025 was short, just 10 games at Low A, and while it wasn’t anything remarkable, as he hit .220 with a 75 wRC+, he did show part of the reason he was so beloved by many draft analysts. In his 10-game debut, Fien had 4 extra base hits, 3 doubles and 1 triple, showing off the power potential he’ll have as he matures into his 6’3” frame. He also did a solid job of pulling the ball, a skill that is key in maximizing power output for hitters like Fien.
Defensively, while Fien is listed as a shortstop, he is likely destined for third base in pro ball, where he should be a natural fit thanks to his strong arm. This coincides well with Eli Willits in the organization, who is at the same level and, currently, plays the same position as Fien. Expect Fien to make his Nationals organization debut with the FredNats this season, where he will play third base right next to Eli Willits at shortstop, a left side of the infield that fans will watch grow up together in the minor leagues for years.
They're all the rage these days, with teams using them to free up their cash flow, players using them for long-term security and tax advantages purposes, and fans using the practice as reason to lash out at the Los Angeles Dodgers’ payroll.
Deferred contracts.
Teams love them.
Players manipulate them.
And Bobby Bonilla takes great pride in them.
Bonilla, 62, the six-time All-Star and World Series champion who once was the game’s highest-paid player, wasn’t the first player to receive a deferred contract – but none are more famous.
He has become known as the godfather of deferrals, with Bonilla and former agent Dennis Gilbert orchestrating an ingenious deal a quarter-century ago with New York Mets that has become a trend-setter.
Everywhere you turn these days, players and teams are negotiating contracts with massive deferrals.
Shohei Ohtani took it to a new level two years ago when he signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, deferring a stunning $68 million a year without interest. The contract is reduced to $460 million in present-day value, saving the Dodgers $24 million a year in luxury taxes. And for Ohtani, it’s a savings of about $98 million, avoiding California taxes on the $68 million annual payments if he’s no longer a California resident in 10 years.
Free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker just signed a four-year, $240 million contract with the Dodgers, which not only included $30 million in deferrals, but a $64 million signing bonus that’s payable before he leaves for spring training. It’s a brilliant move considering the signing bonus won’t be subject to California taxes, saving about $9.2 million since he’s a Florida resident with no state taxes.
Tucker’s deal was a page out of Vladimir Guerrero’s playbook a year ago when he signed a 14-year, $500 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He and his agents, Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro, negotiated an MLB record $325 million signing bonus. It allows Guerrero, a Florida resident, to be taxed at 15% of the bonus as opposed to the 53.5% of Canadian wages, saving him $123.5 million.
Veteran starter Max Scherzer still is being paid $15 million annually from the Washington Nationals in his original seven-year, $210 million contract, negotiated by Scott Boras in 2015.
The king of deferrals are the Dodgers, owned by Guggenheim, who have $1.0945 billion owed in deferrals to 10 different players from 2028-2047.
Look around, and virtually every major free-agent contract this winter has included deferrals.
Tucker, Dodgers: 4 years, $240 million, $30 million deferred.
Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays: 7 years, $210 million, $64 million deferred.
Alex Bregman, Chicago Cubs: 5 years, $175 million, $70 million deferred.
Edwin Diaz, Dodgers: 3 years, $69 million, $13.5 million deferred.
Devin Williams, New York Mets: 3 years, $51 million, $15 million deferred.
The clubs pay less in luxury taxes and have more disposal income to enhance their roster, while the players are able to use it to negotiate a larger contract, while lowering their personal tax burden.
“You’re seeing it everywhere now in the large contracts," says Robert Raiola, director of the sports and entertainment group at PKF O’Connor Davies, a CPA and business consulting firm. “The deferred money allows teams financial flexibility for current payroll and luxury tax management.
“And for the players, it’s a savings, because most states are not going to tax deferred money as long as the players are not performing services in that state when they receive that deferred money."
Certainly, Cease’s $210 million contract is a prime example benefiting the Blue Jays and himself. His deferrals reduce his contract to $184.63 million in present-day value, lowering the Blue Jays’ AAV for competitive balance tax purposes to $26.375 million instead of $30 million. And for Cease, he’s not only spared Canada’s stiff tax rate on his deferrals, but also on his $23 million signing bonus.
While players have now embraced deferrals, there’s an enormous difference between today’s deferrals and Bonilla’s deal from 2025. Bonilla was paid 8% interest on his $5.9 million buyout, paying him $1.19 million annually for 25 years through 2035. Bonilla, with the guidance of his former agent, turned $5.9 million into nearly $30 million.
The contract now has become legendary, with July 1 now being called “Bobby Bonilla Day’’ in baseball, the day he receives his annual check.
“It’s a beautiful thing," Bonilla tells USA TODAY Sports. “It gets so much publicity now, it's become bigger than my birthday."
Bonilla, 62, who was a special assistant for the Major League Baseball Players Association, now is a spokesman for the Players Trust, a non-profit arm of the union. They will have their annual Playmakers Classic event on Feb. 18 in Phoenix, sponsored by Fanatics, with proceeds from the event going towards youth development baseball programs across the country and abroad.
“What is there not to be excited about?"’ Bonilla said. “It's going to be an awesome interactive event, and we get to see the retired and active players, have some nice wine, smoke some cigars, and then mingle with all the sponsors and everything. It's just beautiful."
Certainly, at some juncture during the event, Bonilla once again will be ask about the famous contract, particularly by players who may be considering deferrals in their next contract. Bonilla says he won’t hesitate telling them it was one of the best financial decisions he ever made.
“I wasn't afraid to put the money away," Bonilla said. “Everybody’s wanting their stuff now. I wanted to make sure that I had money later on. I was really, was never extravagant. I wasn’t a hermit or anything. I bought what I wanted.
“I had a couple of cars.
“But I didn’t have 12 of them."
Bonilla and Mets owner Steve Cohen have talking about having an event every year on July 1 to celebrate the occasion, a Citi Field “Bobby Bonilla Day," but for now, it remains on the backburner
“Me and Steve have talked about it," Bonilla said, “but he’s busy trying to bring a championship to New York. Steve's going to do everything he can to make it happen. I know how badly Mets fans want that championship, but in this game, you just have to be patient."
Bonilla was on that ’92 Mets team that resembled last year’s edition of the Mets with their star talent, bloated payroll, and miserable failures. They had several aging stars on their 72-90 team like 36-year-old Eddie Murray, but it also included a young 24-year-old second baseman.
Bonilla never envisioned the kid would one day wind up in Cooperstown, N.Y.: Jeff Kent.
“He was a great second baseman, just a wonderful player," Bonilla said. “I’m so happy for him. He was certainly worthy of getting in."
Bonilla also played with 10-time Gold Glove center fielder Andruw Jones in Atlanta, who’s also being inducted into the Hall of Fame along with former Mets center fielder Carlos Beltran.
“He was so special, so gifted," Bonilla said of Jones. “This is how good he was: I’m in left field one day, and the first pop-up hit to me, I lose it. Andruw sees that I lost it, yells, “Don’t worry, Bo, I got it. I mean, I gave no indication I lost the ball, but he recognized that, flies over, catches it, and laughs. He saved my butt. That’s how good he was.’’
Still, as thrilled as Bonilla is for Kent and Jones, he hopes one day another former teammate and close friend will receive baseball’s greatest honor. Yep, Barry Bonds.
“You know how I feel about Barry getting in," Bonilla said. “He belongs. I don't know what the hang up is with everybody leaving Barry off. I mean, statistically no one's even close. He was just so good. He’s the best I’ve ever seen, and it’s just crazy he’s not in there. We all scratch our head.
“So, I'm going to keep advocating for BB because I want him in there so bad."
In the meantime, if you ever need to talk contracts, and the financial advantages of deferred money, Bobby Bo is your man.
Sure, he won’t make the Hall of Fame, but that contract sure might.
