Category: Baseball

The New York Mets (40-57) return from their brief respite as they battle with the Philadelphia Phillies (54-43) for three games at Citizens Bank Park. The rivals squared off six times in June—three times in Philly, three times in New York—with Philadelphia winning four of the six games (two of three in each park). In a bit of an odd scheduling decision, the teams will play on Thursday, serving as the only game on the MLB schedule while the remaining 28 squads get another day to recuperate from the All-Star game. Then, the Mets and Phillies will be off on Friday while all the other teams play, and they’ll resume their series over the weekend.

The Mets’ final series of the first half was one to forget, as the team was swept by the Red Sox in three games at Citi Field. The offense was mostly missing in action, scoring just four runs across the three losses. Despite catching a break when flight issues delayed Boston’s arrival to New York until about two hours before first pitch—the game was eventually delayed by 35 minutes to accommodate—the Mets looked to be the tired ones in a 6-2 loss on Friday. The offense was even worse on Saturday as they fell 4-0 to secure a series loss.. The Mets looked to flip the script on Sunday, leading 2-0 heading into the ninth, but a Francisco Lindor error on a would-be game-ending double play and some ineffectiveness from Devil Williams combined to allow Boston to tie the game and eventually win 3-2 in extra innings.

The series really was a microcosm of the first half for the Mets. The offense was largely vacant, and when they put guys on, they failed to bring them home. The pitching had its moments but wasn’t good enough to overcome the weak offense. The bullpen was largely great, but Williams, who has been fine at times but also had a few blow-ups here and there, sunk a would-be win with his ineffectiveness on Sunday. The team has basically been unable to really string together any sort of momentum, and that’s how they find themselves where they are now: In last place in the National League East, eight (8!) games behind the fourth-place Nationals and 16 behind the first-place Braves. The Mets are 12 games behind the third-place Marlins, who also happen to hold the final postseason spot in the National League. Conversely, the Mets are only two 1.5 games ahead of the Rockies, who own the worst record in the NL, and two games ahead of the Royals and Angels for worst record in the sport. Get hyped!

So yeah, scoreboard watching won’t be a thing in the second half, at least for the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean you should turn off your TV and tune out entirely. There still are some things worth watching in the final 65 games of the season. One of them is Juan Soto, who did not have to travel far because he participated in Tuesday’s All-Star Game at Citizen’s Bank Park. Soto picked up one of three hits for the National League (it turned out to be the first one of the game for the losing side) and he ultimately did his club proud, as he always does. Despite the down season for the Mets, Soto will likely receive MVP votes once again. Soto leads the Mets in basically every offensive category, hitting .290/.405/.562 (all tops on the roster) with a 163 wRC+ (best on the Mets) and 2.9 fWAR (same). He also leads the team with 21 home runs and 51 runs batted in. In a dark season for the Mets, his star has continued to shine bright.

Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing have been two of the most positive developments from the season, giving New York “two golden nuggets” as Keith Hernandez so eloquently put it to build their team around. Benge begins the second half of his rookie season hitting .263/.326/.402 with a 106 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR, which is second to Soto. He is also second on the club with 11 homers and first with 52 runs scored. Ewing, who debuted later than Benge, is hitting .276/.350/.439 with seven homers, 27 runs scored, 24 runs batted in, a 122 wRC+ (second to Soto), and 1.2 fWAR (third to Soto and Benge). It’s safe to say Benge and Ewing should get a bulk of the playing time from here on out, especially with the club floundering.

The vets, on the other hand, have been mostly disappointing, but their performance post-break could go a long way towards determining their futures in New York. Lindor has unfortunately missed significant time with a pair of injuries before and during this season, and he struggled both before his calf injury and after his return from it. In what has amounted to a mostly-lost first half, he’s hitting .216/.298/.373 with five homers, a 90 wRC+, and 0.6 fWAR in 40 games. The team could field trade offers for him in July/August or this offseason, but his future still seems to be in New York, where pairing him with Soto and the young pair of outfielders is the team’s best path towards relevancy in 2027 and beyond. I’m not quite ready to sign off on the “Lindor is declining” takes just yet, personally.

Bo Bichette got off to a rough start but has picked it up as of late, slashing .255/.300/.376 with 10 homers, 51 runs batted in, an 89 wRC+, and 0.9 fWAR. His play in the second half could determine if he decides to opt in, which is looking very likely given his overall numbers and the state of the CBA and a potential lockout heading into the winter. Beyond that, guys like Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., and Jorge Polanco have been either ineffective, injured, or both, and they will certainly get time in the second half to prove that they belong on the team next year.

Other than that, the team is probably best suited losing more games than they win from here on out. Should the Mets fall out of the top-6 in the lottery, their place in the MLB Draft will fall ten spots. As of now, they have the fourth-worst record, so they enjoy a fairly decent chance of picking within those first six protected slots, but knowing their luck, they will fall to seventh or eighth, which drops them into the late teens given penalties for their payroll. I know it goes against character for some to root for losing, but perhaps think of it less “rooting for failure” and more “thinking about the team’s potential bright future”. In any event, losses (with some bright performances from their talented youngsters) is probably the way to go from here.

The Phillies entered the break on a high note, taking the last two from the Tigers and four of six overall from Detroit and Cincinnati before entering the All-Star Game at their home ballpark. As things currently stand, they are just two games behind the Braves for first place in the division, and two games up on the Wild Card field. If the season ended today, they would take on the Cubs in the 4-vs-5 matchup on the road at Wrigley Field. But as mentioned, there’s a lot of baseball left to play.

The Phillies led all of baseball with six All-Stars (tied with the Dodgers): Jhoan Duran, Bryce Harper (“Legend Pick”), Jesús Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, Cristopher Sánchez, and Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber and Marsh both started, and Harper came in later in the game, but none of them picked up a hit in the game. Schwarber, Harper, and Marsh are 1-2-3, respectively on the club in fWAR and have each enjoyed a great season. Schwarber entered the break leading all NL hitters with 32 homer runs while slashing .254/.367/.560 with a 149 wRC+. Harper as 20 homers and a team-high 59 runs scored while hitting .260/.365/.497 with a 133 wRC+—he also became the first hitter to request an ABS challenge in an All-Star game. Marsh, who started for the NL, is hitting .301/.339/.490 with 15 homers, 52 runs scored, and a 123 wRC+.

Thursday, July 16: Christian Scott vs. Aaron Nola, 7:10 PM EDT on ESPN

Scott (2026): 54.0 IP, 65 K, 26 BB, 7 HR, 3.17 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 77 ERA-

Scott was one of the biggest bright spots for the Mets in the first half, finishing with a 3.17 ERA in 12 starts after returning from Tommy John Surgery, which cost him the entire 2026 campaign. He ended his half on a high note as well, pitching five scoreless innings and scattering three hits against the Royals. He exited with a chance to earn his third career win, but the bullpen let him down, and he settled for a no decision. Despite that, he looked sharp as he struck out five while walking one, though he again struggled with a high pitch count, which has prevented him from pitching beyond five innings in most starts. That will be one thing he can work on and improve the rest of the way as he looks to position himself for a permanent spot in the rotation in 2027 and beyond.

Nola (2026): 97.0 IP, 102 K, 31 BB, 20 HR, 5.75 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 134 ERA-

Nola is just about the one key starter for Philly that hasn’t been performing all that well, but with Sánchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo dominating like they have, Philadelphia is more than happy to bury Nola in the back-end of their rotation. He’s actually had a couple of solid starts to kick off the month, although the Phillies lost both games. His last time out, he allowed two earned runs on three hits while striking out eight Tigers’ hitters in a no decision. Before that, he went seven and allowed three earned runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts, but he picked up the loss against the Reds. That represents the only start this year where Nola has completed seven innings of work.

Saturday, July 18: Sean Manaea vs. Zack Wheeler, 4:05 PM EDT on SNY

Manaea (2026): 75.0 IP, 74 K, 24 BB, 10 HR, 4.56 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 112 ERA-

Manaea closed off an uneven first half, which began with him in the bullpen, on a really high note. For the first time since September 21, 2024, he completed seven innings of work as he limited the Royals to three runs (two earned) on six hits. He struck out six, walked one, and was extremely efficient, needing just 97 pitches to complete his outing. Better yet, he threw 68 of those pitches (70%). He has now pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in four of his last five outings and has laid the blueprint for an effective second half: Attack the strike zone, pitch to contact, and keep the pitch count low. If he can do that, the team may be able to salvage the final year-and-a-half of his contract, and he may just find himself with a role in the 2027 rotation.

Wheeler (2026): 93.0 IP, 108 K, 22 BB, 10 HR, 2.13 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 50 ERA-

Wheeler was so offended that he was the fifth choice to join the NL All-Star squad that he openly rejected the invitation when it finally came. It’s hard to blame him, as Wheeler, who returned earlier this year after being diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome and undergoing surgery, has returned to form about as quickly as the Phillies could have hoped for. Wheeler begins the second half with the third-most wins among NL Starters (10) despite being about four-to-five starts behind the pack. He’s also fifth in bWAR (4.8) and second in ERA (2.13) among NL starters with at least 90 innings under their belt—he falls just short of qualifying, given his late start to the year. He ended the first half two wins against the Reds and the Tigers, as he combined to allow one earned run on six hits in those outings. He has also struck out 34 batters in his last three starts while hitting triple-digits in punch outs in each one.

Sunday, July 19: Nolan McLean vs. Jesús Luzardo, 1:35 PM EDT on SNY

McLean (2026): 107.1 IP, 125 K, 39 BB, 10 HR, 3.52 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 86 ERA-

Despite picking up the loss, McLean was really good in his final start before the break. He was charged with two unearned runs on a Soto error in the first, and that was all he ended up giving up to Boston. He allowed just the two unearned runs on five hits and he struck out seven over six innings of work. McLean, who figured to be the ace of the staff (or at least the 1b to Freddy Peralta’s 1a) had a difficult first half, but he found himself towards the end there. After allowing six runs to the Cubs back on June 24, he posted a 1.00 ERA and a 2.16 FIP, with 19 strikeouts over 18 innings in his last three starts.

Luzardo (2026): 110.1 IP, 136 K, 35 BB, 9 HR, 3.51 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 82 ERA-

Luzardo was just about the only Phillies player who didn’t outright embarrass themselves in front of the home crowd at the All-Star game—this may be a bit harsh, but I also don’t care. He hurled a perfect inning and struck out one while needing just six pitches in his first career All-Star game performance. It was a nice capper to a solid first half that saw the left-hander go 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA and a 2.84 FIP in 19 starts. Philadelphia has won each of his last nine starts dating back to May 25, and the lefty has five wins, a 2.14 ERA, a 2.81 FIP, and 70 strikeouts across 54 2/3 innings during that stretch. He enters the second half with the third-best K% (29.4%), fourth-best FIP (2.84), and fifth-best HR/9 (0.73/9) among qualified NL starters.

I hope you’re enjoying the All-Star break. It is the only time in the regular season when baseball fans do not worry about the state of the lineup or that day’s starting pitcher. But the week is good for reflecting and admitting when you are wrong.

Here is my confession: The Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System is good for baseball.

Wait, let me explain

Yes, I am a baseball purist. Baseball remains genuinely authentic because its core rules have not changed since the sport’s founders played the game. But all fans can agree that their biggest source of discontent is the plate umpire’s strike zone.

Major League Baseball felt the time was right to implement the ABS Challenge System this season. It allows a batter, catcher or pitcher to challenge an umpire’s call. The system was extensively tested in the minor leagues before debuting at the start of the 2026 campaign.

The Perfect Alliance: ABS and plate umpires

I never thought the ABS Challenge System and the home plate umpire would form an unexpectedly perfect alliance. The system works because it integrates technology into the game without disregarding the umpire’s accuracy in calling balls and strikes. Missed calls will occur, but ABS is the perfect safety net to resolve issues within minutes. 

The challenge system is so popular because it eliminates human error while still relying on umpires to make quality calls. An electric graphic appears on the scoreboard to show the pitch’s location. It is fast, painless, and play resumes with little delay. 

Now, stadium crowds have switched from yelling about the plate umpire’s strike zone to pleading for their team to challenge a questionable call. Technology has crept into baseball, eliminating the fiery theatrical spectacle of a manager and umpire arguing over a call. Those days are over, as all disputes are decided quickly.

Who knew the ABS Challenge System offers game strategy?

Teams have developed a strategy for the challenge system. Too many clubs were losing both challenges early in contests, and had no recourse to question a call late in games. 

As the season has progressed, managers are cautioning their players not to use ABS until after the fifth inning. No longer are you seeing hitters challenge a pitch in the first inning, as teams want to hold onto at least one challenge for the eighth or ninth inning. It might be the difference in a low-scoring affair.

Baseball purists who dislike the challenge system are waiting for a call to be overturned in a high-leverage situation such as Game 7 of the World Series. They hope the controversy from the call will doom ABS. 

What they fail to see is that the challenge system offers instant accountability. ABS is designed to determine a winner and a loser when it matters most.

Not every player that makes the major league is going to become a Hall of Famer. Not every player that makes it is going to be an All-Star. Not every player that makes it will even have a semi-long career. There are plenty of guys who have a brief cup of coffee and then never make it back. However, those guys still all have stories.

Tom Metcalf was one of those guys, and he has some quite interesting tidbits about his story.

Thomas John “Tom” Metcalf
Born: July 16, 1940 (Amherst, WI)
Yankees Tenure: 1963

Metcalf was born and raised in Wisconsin, attending Lincoln High School in Wisconsin Rapids. He was a three sport star in high school, leading the Lincoln team in baseball, football, and basketball. Baseball is what got him a scholarship to Northwestern University, but he even played a bit of basketball there too.

After looking like a star on the mound for Northwestern, he was struck by a ball while watching teammates take batting practice. That kept him off the field for a while, and in the meantime, he let his grades drop below the level of being academically ineligible. During that time, pro scouts started to circle, and the Yankees eventually came in and outbid others to land the pitcher.

Starting his pro career in 1961, Metcalf fairly quickly rose through the Yankees’ minor league ranks. While he began his tenure in the system as a starter, the Yankees switched him to a reliever, and by 1963, he was already up in Triple-A. To start the ‘63 season, he had posted a 2.69 ERA in 67 innings and then got the call to the big leagues, joining a dynastic club that had won the 12 of the last 14 AL pennants and 10 of the past 14 World Series titles (including the most recent couple years in a row from 1961-62).

Metcalf debuted on August 4th in the first game of a doubleheader against the Orioles. He allowed three runs in two innings, but did retire future Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson and future MVP Boog Powell as part of his outing.

Playing time proved to be a little sparce for Metcalf, though. His next appearance didn’t come until August 14th, as the Yankees were still trying to claim the AL pennant. Metcalf would go on to pitch 13 innings across eight games, posting a very solid 2.77 ERA. The Yankees did also clinch the pennant, advancing to the World Series against the Dodgers.

His cameo down the stretch was good enough for Metcalf to get named to the Yankees’ World Series roster. He wouldn’t get a chance to pitch, though that would be the fate of several Yankees as the team got swept away. The story of the series was that the Yankees’ offense scored just four runs in total against Sandy Koufax and company, as the Dodgers dominated.

However as things played out, that ended up being it for Metcalf’s MLB career. The following spring, Metcalf lost out on the final bullpen spot, as new manager Yogi Berra preferred Pete Mikkelsen. Metcalf returned to Triple-A, but couldn’t replicate his previous numbers. He spent another season in the minors in 1965 and similarly couldn’t crack the big leagues. In spring training 1966, the Yankees were set to sell Metcalf to Cleveland, but the pitcher decided he was through with baseball and was returning back to his native Wisconsin.

Since leaving baseball, Metcalf went and got into the lumber business. If you’re looking for lumber somewhere in Wisconsin or that general area, perhaps check out Metcalf Lumber. He still lives in the Wisconsin Rapids area and is probably somewhere celebrating his 86th birthday as you read this.

Metcalf had quite a ride for a reliever who only had one major league season. According to his SABR bio (a wonderful resource for this particular article), he briefly dated future actress Ann-Margaret, who attended Northwestern at the same time. Upon going to LA while with the Yankees in the 1963 World Series, he tried to get back in contact, only to be rebuffed as she was then in a relationship with a certain Elvis Presley. What a world.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Good morning everyone, and happy Thursday!

It’s the final day of the All-Star Break, and hope springs eternal for the second half. What are your expectations for the club the rest of the way?

In Mariners news…

• Brendan Donovan officially kicked off his rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League last night.
• Carlos Collazo at Baseball America gave a full breakdown of the Mariners’ 2026 draft class. ($)
• Zac Hereth at Seattle Sports outlined some critical second half series for the Mariners’ playoff hopes, specifically as they pertain to possible tiebreaking scenarios.
• Daniel Kramer provided a primer for the trade deadline, which is now just a couple of weeks away.

Around the league…

• The Astros cleared some payroll off their books by sending right-hander Lance McCullers, Jr. to the Brewers for left-hander Colton Gordon.
• The Athletics are calling up infielder Tommy White in advance of their upcoming series against the Nationals.
• Maybe this helps explain how the Nationals have surpassed expectations this year. Though, this specific injury has cleared the way for Harry Ford to make it up to D.C. for the first time this year.

• Ten years later, we’ve learned that FOX Sports tried to convince MLB to postpone the ending of the rain-delayed Game 7 of the 2016 World Series to the following day.
• Get to know soon-to-be Athletics ace Gage Jump through his insightful conversation with Fangraphs’ David Laurila.
• Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus bemoaned the loss of diversity among scorebugs on baseball broadcasts. ($)
• Alexandra Tey at Defector recapped a fun day at the ball yard for “trans girl baseball,” and explained why this fun tradition among friends has made such an impact on her life.

The 2026 MLB season resumes later today.

That means we’ve got a bit less than half a season remaining, plus the postseason, until the collective bargaining agreement between MLB owners and players expires Dec. 1 and we will almost certainly experience another lockout by owners at that time.

What happens after that is really anyone’s guess. The game is at a high point in popularity and talent and almost everyone agrees that interrupting that with a season of missed games would be a bad thing. And yet, we could be headed that way.

Here’s where players and owners stood as we hit the All-Star break, per this article by Evan Drellich in The Athletic.

Owners:

“I do know this: I think that I have an ownership group that is more united than any group in my entire time in baseball,” said Manfred, who started working with MLB as outside counsel in the late 1980s. “I think they are a group that believes in what I have been arguing for, and that is listening to our fans, trying to make changes to produce the best possible game that we can produce.”

Those changes, of course, are primarily connected to a salary cap, which owners have been trying to impose on players for nearly half a century. It’s what killed a third of the 1981 season and what killed the 1994 postseason. And they’re still at it. Commissioner Rob Manfred’s statement hints that fans want a salary cap, which… well, it’s true if you listen to carefully curated fan polls which had questions carefully crafted to the owners’ benefit. Which should not surprise you.

Players:

“Our union, the MLBPA, has been the most successful of the unions in professional sports,” said interim union head Bruce Meyer, who, like Manfred, spoke to members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday prior to the All-Star Game. “The other unions look to the MLBPA. I sometimes get asked about a salary cap, ‘Why does baseball not have one? Why is it the only one that doesn’t have one?’ The answer is very simple. It’s because our union has been the strongest.”

This is also true. I don’t think I have ever seen the MLBPA as united as it is right now against a salary cap. The cap isn’t designed to have a more “level playing field,” as owners claim. It’s designed to keep more of baseball’s $12 billion annual revenues in the hands of owners.

Players are the game. They are the ones who provide entertainment, thrills and the loyalty we feel as fans of a particular team, in our case, the Cubs. They should get paid commensurate with that. No one goes to a baseball game, or watches one on TV, to see owners own teams.

In fact, players were just as unified five years ago, when the last negotiations took place:

“What I think gets forgotten is — and I know the league leaves this part out — is that we started negotiating in April or May (2021),” Meyer said. “In our view, we didn’t get serious proposals from the league until February (2022). At the end of the day, in February, they started making real moves.

“At one point, they said … ‘We are going to miss games. That’s it.’ At that point, our players unanimously, the entire executive board, all 38, said that deal is not good enough.

“The league went back and they made their offer better. And again, they said, ‘All right, this time we mean it. If you don’t agree, then we’re going to miss games. That’s it. It’s too late.’ Again our players, and again unanimously — all 38 — rejected it.”

The third time, the owners’ offer had grown sufficiently, in Meyer’s view. He also said he did not recommend turning down the deal that turned into the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement that’s about to expire.

“My point is, the players were completely unified and willing to miss games up until the point where the league finally put enough on the table,” Meyer said. “Some of the narrative leaves out the two steps before that, where all 38 were unanimous in saying, we are willing to miss games unless you make the deal better.

The same thing is happening now. As I wrote here two months ago, players and owners had already begun exchanging proposals in around the same time frame they did in 2021. As is often the case for negotiations like this, none of the early proposals from either side is likely to be adopted. A lot of early bargaining in these cases is posturing. As many of you know, I was a TV director and a member of the Directors Guild of America. I once sat in on a negotiating session between DGA representatives and reps of the producers and TV networks who the DGA’s contracts are with. At one point the lead DGA negotiator said, “This is the most insulting offer in the history of collective bargaining.” Hyperbole, of course, but you can see that’s the sort of thing that happens in these types of negotiations. I can tell you that no DGA-represented worker ever missed a single day due to strike or lockout. The deals were always hammered out — sometimes a bit after the last minute.

And that’s what we all hope happens here, in time for no games to be missed in 2027. It would, as I wrote earlier, be the worst thing that could happen to a sport that seems on the upswing — especially with MLB’s national TV contracts coming up for renewal after 2028, and Manfred’s professed desire to perhaps have most, or all, local TV rights bundled with the national deals to make more money. A lockout that costs games in 2027 would almost certainly cost MLB owners a lot of money on those TV deals. And they know that.

Let’s hope they can reach a deal where the 2027 season goes off as scheduled, with no games lost.

And speaking of 2028, that is when the next Olypmics will be held, hosted in Los Angeles. And there’s been much talk about MLB players participating, which would obviously raise the Olympic baseball competition to a very high level.

Drellich writes in The Athletic that MLB has proposed penalties for players who are chosen for Olympic baseball teams but who later back out:

In a May proposal to the union, Major League Baseball said it wants big leaguers to face an effective suspension longer than three weeks — a period that would last into the second half of the regular season — if they are chosen to participate in the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles but skip out without an approved excuse.

From as early as July 10 through Aug. 3, 2028, players who choose not to play in the Summer Games would be on the restricted list without pay or service time, per a copy of the proposal reviewed by The Athletic. Placement on the injury list would technically be an approved excuse, but with a wrinkle: such players would get pay and service time, but would not be able to return to regular-season action until after the same day, Aug. 3.

Bruce Meyer, the head of the Players Association, on Tuesday called the league’s proposal “extreme.” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, meanwhile, said the proposal was made on the premise that the 2028 Summer Games are “a unique opportunity to market the sport with our very, very best players.”

Again, as you can see, there’s a lot of posturing going on. Meyer’s comment isn’t entirely wrong, but calling it “extreme” isn’t going to push owners to come any closer to a deal on this.

Here’s how the proposed Olympic baseball competition would work with MLB players:

To accommodate the baseball portion of the Olympics, which is set to run from July 13-19, 2028, the usual midseason All-Star break would be extended. The first half of the regular season would wrap up July 9, and the All-Star Game is then set to be played July 11, likely in San Francisco. The regular season would resume on July 21.

So that would make the extended All-Star break 11 days, instead of the current four, but seven of those days would have Olympic baseball, which presumably would be of high interest. It would be like the World Baseball Classic, only compressed into one week instead of more than three, and with players who are in mid-season form instead of guys still trying to get ready for the season in March. Could be a lot of fun. Also, this is the first time I’ve seen any mention of the All-Star Game site for 2028. It should be noted that the Cubs have supposedly been told that if the 2027 season misses enough games due to a labor stoppage that the Wrigley Field All-Star Game wouldn’t happen next year, that the Cubs would host in 2028 instead.

Here’s what will happen next on this topic, per Drellich:

An MLB official who was not authorized to speak publicly said the union has not responded to the league’s participation proposal. A union official who was not authorized to speak publicly said that the MLBPA has informed the league that it would respond once players have a broader set of proposals on all the other issues.

A slew of additional things need to be worked out, including player accommodations and compensation for participation, as well as how many tickets are available to players and their guests. In the union’s proposal on those matters, it pushed for big leaguers to have many of the same accommodations that National Hockey League players are afforded for their participation in the Olympics.

The negotiations are complicated by the number of parties at the table: beyond just MLB and the MLPBA, the International Olympic Committee and LA28 are involved as well. The World Baseball Softball Confederation is also part of the process.

So there are a lot of moving parts here, and of course this discussion is going on at the same time as labor negotiations, so everyone’s got a full plate.

Lastly, here’s an early look at which countries would participate in Olympic baseball:

The U.S., the Dominican Republic and Venezuela have already secured spots in the 2028 Olympics’ baseball tournament. The latter two clubs qualified during the WBC, and the U.S. has an automatic bid as the host country. The last three spots will be determined at upcoming tournaments.

It’s not clear which tournaments these are, but I would imagine Japan would be one of the other countries who would come out of any qualifying tournament. Presuming MLB players participate, that would add huge star power to Olympic baseball.

Again, as always, we await developments.

The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, the highest run differential in baseball, the biggest lead in baseball.

And a pitching staff that recently required seven arms to get through a six-run loss in a game started by Kyle Hurt.

The Dodgers have the best player in baseball, the best manager in baseball, the best lineup in baseball.

And a starting rotation containing two cornerstones who have shown up for a total of eight games.

You know where we’re headed with this, right?

C’mon Dodgers, would you look in the mirror and ignore the noise and make the trade already?

Go get Tarik Skubal.

Go get the two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner and cement your October. Go get the marvelous Detroit Tiger lefty and claim your three-peat.

Everyone will say you are ruining baseball, but you know what would really ruin baseball? If its reigning dynasty is wrecked by loose bodies or back spasms or a needle stuck in a left knee.

Everyone will say you don’t really need him, but unless you have some sort of time machine that can restore vitality to some of the veterans showing serious wear, you need him.

The 29-year-old Skubal is a pending free agent, so the Tigers have to trade him or lose him to a $400 million contract elsewhere. The Tigers could keep him for a possible pennant run, but Skubal is a pitcher, not a miracle worker, and his 44-52 team has to leapfrog six others to sneak into a wild-card spot.

He’s there for the taking and, more than any other team, the asset-rich Dodgers are in the best position to take him. They have the best minor leaguers. They have the best fringe major leaguers. Give the Tigers whatever anonymous talents they desire because, as Dodger fans have learned, nobody will be lamenting the lost kids when the big leaguers are parading down Figueroa.

Read more:How Dodgers' Justin Wrobleski went from demotion to All-Star in less than two years

Yes, agreed, this is an insane column to write … if it hadn’t already been written.

Back in July 2023, this space begged the Dodgers to bolster their weak starting rotation at the trade deadline.

“They need to surrender prospects and take on debt and do whatever it takes to trade for an ace starting pitcher or they have zero shot at a championship,” I wrote at the time. “They need to find somebody who can take the ball in one of the first two games of what could be a three-game wild-card playoff series or they have zero shot at surviving that series.”

One month later, failing to improve the team for one of the rare times in his brilliant career, Andrew Friedman struck out.

Three months later, they were swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first round of the playoffs while rolling out a rotation of noodle-armed Clayton Kershaw, massively disappointing Bobby Miller, and a human dinger machine named Lance Lynn.

Three years later it feels like it’s happening all over again, the Dodgers once again faced with a nightmare they’d rather ignore.

The team with four aces needs an ace. The team that began the season with two Cy Young candidates needs a third. The supernatural pitching staff needs help.

Start with Shohei Ohtani. They’re understandably acting like the knee-draining procedure he underwent last weekend was no big deal, but it pulled him off the mound and there has been no definitive word when he’ll return.

“I think we all know with where we’re at, who he is as a player, if there’s opportunities to be extra cautious and mindful, it’s just prudent,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told the media.

In less than three months, will “cautious and mindful” become “ready to roll?” Who knows? Ohtani is 32 with slowly diminishing tread on those overworked wheels.

Then there’s Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, the two injured Dodger starters who everyone thinks will just magically appear at full strength in the playoffs.

Believe that, and I’ve got some loose bodies to sell you.

Snell, 33, hasn’t lasted a full season in three years, and even though he’ll be pitching again soon, any season that includes even the most minor of elbow surgeries can have a problematic ending.

Glasnow, who turns 33 next month, has made but 25 starts in the last two seasons and missed the playoffs completely two years ago and by now it feels like back spasms are the least of his problems.

The surprise bright spot of the rotation has been Justin Wrobleski, and last season he didn’t allow a run in four World Series relief appearances, but can he be trusted with the start? In Tuesday’s All-Star Game, deep-bombing Miguel Vargas reminded him how the heat increases when the expectations are higher.

The starting pitcher fears are heightened by the vulnerability of the man who is catching them. Will Smith will be back from his neck injury, but he’s lately shown some of the strain of his record-setting postseason workload. And do you really want Dalton Rushing talking trash behind the plate for pressure playoff battles?

To all these worries, add the bullpen, which has fallen back to earth after its club-record 38 inning scoreless streak. Edwin Díaz can’t come back soon enough and, oh wait, does that 10.50 really ERA belong to him?

Into this tightrope-walking atmosphere would step Skubal, who underwent a minimally invasive elbow procedure in May but came back stronger than ever. He has gone 36-15 over the past three seasons with two full years of sub-3.00 ERAs while being generally regarded as the best pitcher in baseball.

Read more:Most pressing question for Dodgers in the second half: Can Shohei Ohtani stay healthy?

He might be a rental. So what? A third consecutive championship would be forever.

The rest of the baseball world would cry foul. Who cares? The only sound that matters around here are the cheers accompanying one more title before the game goes dark.

The Dodgers’ rotation is hurting. The Dodgers window is closing. The Dodgers are on the verge of a three-peat, yet still one player away.

Go get Tarik Skubal.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

It is one of the national media’s favorite pastimes – what players on the San Diego Padres can we put on another team? Most of the time this speculation leads to a Padres player landing with the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox or Philadelphia Phillies. This trade season is starting the same way thanks in large part to San Diego limping into the All-Star break following an eight-game losing streak which led to the Padres finishing the first half of the season with a 48-48 record.

Typically, the focus of trade speculation on the San Diego roster is Fernando Tatis Jr. The national writers have tried to get him to New York for years. There was some of that earlier this season, but as the MLB prepares to open the second half of the season this weekend, the new focus on the Padres is All-Star closer Mason Miller. The right-hander was added at last season’s trade deadline and is considered the most dominant reliever in the game. San Diego gave up top prospect Leodalis De Vries to make it happen so it seems unlikely that Padres general manager and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller would flip him this season.

Most of the speculation around Miller has involved the Yankees. There has been talk that New York has the talent pool of major league-ready players and prospects that an offer could be made to get San Diego to the negotiating table. The Padres and Yankees have lined up deals in the past, most recently involving Juan Soto and Michael King, but whether or not there is any truth to the rumors about New York wanting to make a deal again remains to be seen. For that matter, San Diego has not decided if it is going to buy or sell at the deadline and that decision could be made over the next 16 games.

Padres News:

Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says the Padres need to make intelligent decisions if the team decides to buy at the deadline.

Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune had a one-on-one interview with Padres rookie infielder Sung-Mun Song and talked with him about several topics including why he signed with San Diego.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic looks ahead to the second half for San Diego and identifies potential stories to watch.

Baseball News:

The Milwaukee Brewers landed Lance McCullers Jr. in a trade with the Houston Astros.

The Washington Nationals are set to promote catcher Harry Ford when the team returns to play.

The Athletics called up their No. 7 prospect, Tommy White.

Baltimore Orioles reliever Keegan Akin had Tommy John surgery.

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees open a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Bronx on Friday...

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5 things to watch

Measuring stick series

Sure, it's just the first series after the All-Star break, but this weekend against the Dodgers should be a measuring stick for the Yankees.

We all remember what happened in the 2024 World Series, and the Dodgers are still the class of not just the National League, but all of MLB. While the Yanks have to compete with other AL teams to even get a chance at their first title since 2009, going up against the team with the best record in baseball (61-36) can show GM Brian Cashman how the Yankees stack up against them and what moves need to be made at the deadline to bridge the gap. 

Will Ben Rice continue to mash?

It feels like forever ago that Rice was in one of those 0-fer streaks that major leaguers go through during a 162-game season. But the final week before the All-Star break was impressive for the young slugger.

Over his last seven games, Rice was 11-for-26 (.423) with five home runs and 12 RBI. 

With Aaron Judge on the shelf, Rice has stepped up massively to give the Yankees the offense needed to keep pace with the Tampa Bay Rays. New York will continue to rely on the youngster, and that starts this weekend. 

Aaron Judge update?

Speaking of Judge, Cashman said that the reigning AL MVP was to undergo more imaging over the All-Star break. 

While the club doesn't expect Judge's imaging to come back clean, they hope there is enough healing that he can expand his workouts, which would give the team a clearer picture of when he can return.

Obviously, the offense goes as Judge does. And although Rice and Cody Bellinger have done their parts, there's no replacing what Judge brings every game. 

Shohei Ohtani Mania

Whenever the Dodgers are in town, Ohtani is the main attraction. And although he had to skip the All-Star festivities due to a knee injury, manager Dave Roberts assured everyone that Ohtani will be in the lineup this weekend. 

He won't pitch, but Ohtani's at-bats will be must-see. 

Can Austin Wells stay on the right track?

Wells has had his worst season as a major leaguer, but he's shown signs that he may be turning things around.

The backstop has just six home runs this year, but two of them came in the final four games before the All-Star break -- and he had at least one hit in three of them.

While those are low bars for a potential World Series team, the Yankees and Wells will take it. Can he keep it up this weekend? 

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Ben Rice

Rice went into the break on fire and he'll come out of it the same.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best game?

David Bednar

Without knowing the probable starters for the weekend, we'll go with the closer. Bednar has been nails, not allowing an earned run since May 18.

Which Dodgers player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Freddie Freeman

Freeman has had a great first half and he's tortured the Yankees before. 

The Red Sox season changed dramatically back on April 25th when the team fired Alex Cora and appointed Chad Tracy as interim manager. However, their initial trajectory did not. Starting seven games under .500 when Tracy took over, the team fell another seven games under .500 over the next eight weeks. (It certainly hasn’t helped matters that Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony have each been absent for over two months.)

But now? They’ve won 14 of their last 16 games and rocketed back into the race. And oddly enough, it’s not the first time something like this has happened in the Tracy family. Back in 2009, Chad’s father Jim took over the Colorado Rockies when they got off to a horrible start under Clint Hurdle. That group bottomed out at 12 games under .500 at 20-32 before ripping off 17 of 18 slightly earlier in the calendar than this Red Sox team.

Still, the resemblance is remarkable. Check out this graph from the wonderful folks at pennant-race.com comparing the 2009 Rockies (who went on to make the playoffs with 92 wins) and the 2026 Red Sox:

So now the question is, can it continue? They 2026 Red Sox have less time left on the calendar than the 2009 Rockies when they approached .500, but they also don’t need to climb nearly as high given the additional Wild Card spots and the historically weak American League.

Either way, if Chad Tracy ends up leading this team to the playoffs from 14 games under .500 after taking over partway through the season 17 years after his father Jim led a Rockies team to the playoffs from 12 games under .500 after taking over partway through the season, it will be an amazing family accomplishment.

Talk about this and whatever else you’d like as we wait through one last day of All-Star break doldrums, and as always, be good to one another.

The Orioles completed their 2026 draft class across 20 rounds on July 11 and 12. This year’s class has 20 players in it, one for each round. The next step is to get players signed and into the organization. In most cases, that’s going to be settled before the trade deadline. The signing deadline this year is July 27 at 5pm Eastern.

In last year’s draft class, the Orioles signed 21 of the 24 players that they drafted. Although there have been “sign every pick” years in the Mike Elias era, this one probably isn’t going to be one of them.

Bonus pool math

Last year, the Orioles had the largest draft bonus pool that any team ever had up to that point. The record was beaten by this year’s White Sox in the same way that last year’s Orioles did, with a draft week trade bringing a tradeable competitive balance pick into the mix. This year, the Orioles have the 13th-biggest pool available, with $13,114,200 as their official allotment.

The bonus pool system has been in effect since the 2012 Draft. Each pick in the first ten rounds is assigned a value that decreases as the draft goes along. Add up these values and you get a team’s total bonus pool. Discussion about whether a particular signing is overslot or underslot is relative to the value for that pick. The top Orioles pick at #7 overall has a slot value of $7,327,200, all the way down to the tenth round pick’s value of $198,900.

On the whole, players who have more leverage to get overslot bonuses are those who have just graduated from high school, as well as draft-eligible college sophomores and junior college players. They can just say they’ll go to college or play another year of college if they don’t like what a team offers. Picks who were either college seniors or even graduate students still playing baseball tend to get way under slot bonuses of $25,000 or less.

You can expect a team will sign a player taken in rounds 1-10. They lose their bonus pool money for an unsigned pick in those rounds. It will get done unless there’s a surprise medical issue, which has only happened once with the Orioles in the Elias-era drafts. Don’t worry about players unsigned as the deadline approaches.

The Orioles may end up having more bonus pool math to sort out this year compared to past years. They drafted three high school players and a junior college player within the first ten rounds, and another five high school players in rounds 11-20.

Players taken from rounds 11-20, and undrafted players, can receive a signing bonus up to $150,000 without counting against the pool. Any amount that exceeds $150,000 for these picks is what counts against the pool. Recently, the league added the option for junior college-bound players to sign late as “draft-and-follow” players for a bonus of up to $225,000 before next year’s Draft.

Also, a team can exceed its pool by up to 5% and it will only have to pay a tax on the overage amount, equal to 75% of the overage. There are steeper penalties for exceeding 5% that no team has ever incurred. In last year’s draft, the Orioles used nearly every dollar available to them in their 5% overage. This year, the extra 5% gives the Orioles an additional $655,700.

This article will be updated between now and the deadline as signings or non-signings are reported by media or announced by the team. Signing bonus information listed where available.

Players who have signed

• 16th round, 470th overall – Brayden Fry – SS – Cranford (NJ) HS (source)

Apparently not signing

Nothing official yet

For more information about this year’s draft class, check out my article on what is one of the youngest groups the Orioles have ever taken.

• 1st round, 7th overall – Eric Booth Jr. – OF – Oak Grove (Miss.) HS
• 2nd round, 46th overall – Ty Head – OF – NC State
• 3rd round, 82nd overall – Dominic Voegele – RHP – Kansas
• 4th round, 110th overall – Kevin Roberts Jr. – OF – Jackson Prep (Miss.) HS
• 5th round, 142nd overall – Jimmy Anderson – SS – Heartland CC (Ill.)
• 6th round, 171st overall – Zane Adams – LHP – Alabama
• 7th round, 200th overall – Ryan Piech – RHP – Xavier
• 8th round, 230th overall – Will Plunkett – SS – Mamaroneck (NY) HS
• 9th round, 260th overall – Collin McKinney – RHP – Arizona
• 10th round, 290th overall – Carlos Sanchez – UT – LSU-Shreveport
• 11th round, 320th overall – Ross Norman – RHP – Coastal Carolina
• 12th round, 350th overall – Leo Marrero – C – Hardee (Fla.) HS
• 13th round, 380th overall – Garrison Sumner – RHP – BYU
• 14th round, 410th overall – Miguel Hugas – RHP – Mercer (Ga.)
• 15th round, 440th overall – Braden Smith – RHP – Central Florida
• 17th round, 500th overall – Diego Gutierrez – RHP – San Diego
• 18th round, 530th overall – Gunnar Garrison – RHP – Eaton (Colo.) HS
• 19th round, 560th overall – Victor Salazar – OF – Paetow (Tex.) HS
• 20th round, 590th overall – Ross Davis – RHP – Rusk (Tex.) HS

Undrafted free agents

These players are also able to sign for up to $150,000 without counting against the bonus pool, with any amount beyond that going against the pool. These are signings collected by Baseball America, typically sourced from college team social media accounts reporting that their player has signed a contact.

• Regan Hall – LHP – Illinois
• David Lally Jr. – RHP – Michigan
• Colton Sampson – LHP – Seminole State JC (Fla.)
• Camden Wicker – RHP – Central Florida

Tuesday night’s All-Star Game served as the end of the almost weeklong baseball festivities which make up All-Star Week that descended upon Philadelphia beginning last Friday. It was a citywide celebration of baseball from games and competitions taking place at Citizens Bank Park to fan experiences and meet and greets at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Center City.

The Phillies were prominently featured in all of the events going on in the city, thanks to of course being the hometown team but also leading the way with six All-Star nominations. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both took part in a memorable Home Run Derby with Schwarber coming up just short of winning the contest to Jordan Walker. All six of the Phillies representatives played in the All-Star game, but only Jesús Luzardo and Jhoan Duran had what one could call “successful” appearances in the 4-0 NL loss.

Besides the active players, Phillies legends were also out and about over the last week. There were numerous alumni who took part in the All-Star village where fans could take photos or get autographs. Some of those players even took the field at Citizens Bank Park again when Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino assembled teams comprising of celebrities and the very best of the AUSL for the MLBx All-Star home run derby, with Victorino’s team taking home the championship.

Then of course there was the MLB draft which was also held at the Convention Center. There the Phillies selected Tyler Spengler with their first pick and made 21 total picks.

So, what was your favorite part of All-Star Week? Did you attend any of the events? Or were you enjoying the fun through your television screen?

It has been a rough season for the San Francisco Giants. In spite of the positives, the negatives have been so severe as to potentially cause some long-term damage on the field. Personally, I don’t think it’s possible for the Giants to have a “respectable” season no matter what they do, and that includes going 66-0 the rest of the way and winning the World Series, but I recognize that I’m in the minority. For most fans, there’s a version of this failed experiment that is the 2026 Giants that stumbles or crawls its way to a finish that is notably less embarrassing than their play in the first part of the season.

They’re 41-55 coming out of the All-Star break. Since they’re unlikely to go 66-0 and win the World Series, what’s the final record that would make you say, “Wow, I didn’t think they’d wind up there after that terrible start.” Or even, “Yeah, that’s probably the best they could’ve done with a rookie manager and everyone still trying to figure out that new situation.” Some notes to get you in the right frame of mind:

• The Giants haven’t won 4 games in a row all season.
• They ended April 13-18, May 23-36, and June 35-50.
• Robbie Ray leads the rotation in innings pitched and is likely to be traded.
• At 97 IP, Landen Roupp is just 9.2 innings away from matching his season total of last season, which was just 0.2 innings below his professional high of just 107.1 IP (which he hit in 2022).
• Tyler Mahle is likely to be traded and is currently 5th in the rotation in terms of IP.
• Caleb Kilian and Erik Miller might be traded, JT Brubaker has rarely pitched in a pressure situation, and Keaton Winn is always just a pitch away from winding up back on the IL. The bullpen is likely to be Sam Hentges, Dylan Smith, and whatever they can coax out of Jason Foley.
• Luis Arraez, the most valuable player on the team, is likely to be traded.

If this list of negatives makes it difficult to actually conjure up a final result, I’ll add this note to help:

They’re 13-13 since Pride Night, and if they simply hold that .500 mark, they’ll go 33-33 and finish the season at 78-84. To me, that seems like it would be a pretty solid recovery and indicative of (1) a team that was projected to hover around .500 all season unless some events broke in their favor but (2) had a drag co-efficient of a new, inexperienced major league manager calling the shots. So, if you thought Tony Vitello might have a learning curve that cost the team in the realm of, say, 6-10 games while he sorted things out, a record of 78-84 would make sense. And if you looked at the way Zack & Buster cobbled together a bullpen, then 78-84 would seem like an especially lucky result.

And even with all those negatives, holding a .500 record the rest of the way seems plausible and maybe even probable. Sure, purging 40% of the rotation and a key lineup figure would hurt a lot, but it’s starting to sound a lot like the Giants won’t go full tilt on a rebuild, and so losing Arraez and Ray might be smoothed over by a combination of guys playing better (Matt Chapman when he returns, Willy Adames generally), some prospects contributing (Carson Whisenhunt), and some major league-ready players they get in trades helping out.

Since the beginning of June, the Giants’ offense is 8th in MLB (6th in the NL) with a 112 wRC+ (though, just 19th in runs scored) while their pitching has been valued at 18th (+2.2 fWAR). Again, removing Luis Arraez (144 wRC+ since June 1st) would not help the offense, but if this lineup has turned a corner overall, then losing him might not be so catastrophic. So, then it would come down to the trades they make and the pitching they get in return that could sort out the staff the rest of the way. The pitching is bad enough that, at this point, any additions are likely to improve it.

The Giants still have a relatively tough (for them, anyway) strength of schedule, with 6 remaining against the Dodgers, 3 against the Brewers, that makeup game against Atlanta in Atlanta, 6 against the surprising Cardinals, 3 against the Guardians, and 3 against the Pirates. But they also have to face a surging Tigers team (22-14 since June 1st), the so-so Astros (47-51), and the Reds, who are usually a tough matchup no matter the site of the series. Is .500 the rest of the way actually plausible or does it just sound like it?

Let’s run through the remaining schedule:

at Seattle (3 games) — The Giants have won 1 series in Seattle. It was in 1999. Prediction: 1-2
at Kansas City (3 games) — the Giants swept the Royals in Kauffman Stadium back in 2024 when they were in a heated playoff chase. That’s not the case this year for either team. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Angels (3 games) — a truly horrendous team, but the Giants are just 3-6 against them the past 3 seasons; and, this series will be before the trade deadline, meaning that the few good players on that roster likely to be traded will be showcased against the Giants. Prediction: 2-1
vs. the Brewers (3 games) — they’re 59-37 right now and 30-19 on the road. They are just 7-6 in July, though. Prediction: 1-2
at San Diego (4 games) — the final series before the trade deadline and despite the Padres’ struggles (48-48, 29-37 since May 1st, including the fewest runs in the sport scored since then) it’s likely that they won’t be sellers at the deadline. They, like the Giants, are just drawing too well. They have a new ownership group coming in, too. They’re just 3.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. The Padres have lost just 1 season series to the Giants this decade (2021, natch). Prediction: split?
at Texas (3 games) — Like the Mariners and Padres, the Rangers are one of those teams hovering around .500 all season. They’re 5-5 in July (-12 run differential) but 21-16 since June 1st. But their .500 home record (25-25) is surprising. They’re 16-14 in interleague, though, and their only setbacks there have been against the Reds (0-3) and Dodgers (1-2). Still, 2-4 against the Angels? I guess this one’s a coin toss. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Detroit (3 games) — The Tigers handled the Giants pretty easily last year in a sweep in Detroit and while it’s true that the 2026 version has struggled a lot, it’s still the case that they’re much, much, much (much?) better than the Giants. Their lineup features three All-Stars: Dillon Dingler, Kevin McGonigle, and Riley Greene, and an enviable rotation with Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Casey Mize, and even Jack Flaherty, Keider Montero, and now Troy Melton. They are 17-29 on the road this season, though. Hmm… Prediction: 1-2
vs. Houston (3 games) — A tricky team. Are they buyers or sellers? Are they a “fake” .500 team? Well, I’ll just let this decide: they’re 10-17 in interleague this season with a -30 run differential. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Colorado (3 games) — Gosh, I hope this isn’t a tough series. Prediction: 3-0 (is this where the first 4-game winning streak happens???)
at Cleveland (3 games) — Patrick Bailey revenge series? Who cares, the Guardians have great pitching and they are good for a second-half run. Prediction: 0-3
at Boston (3 games) — The Red Sox look to be buyers at the deadline and even though their offense has struggled, they will get up to face the Giants’ weak pitching. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Cincinnati (3 games) — This team seems to be out of it. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Arizona (4 games) — The Giants are 1-8 against the Diamondbacks this season. I would expect this series to put the team out of its misery. Prediction: 1-3
at Atlanta (1 game)— I cannot fathom the Giants sweep. Prediction: 0-1
at Pittsburgh (3 games) — Will the Pirates fade down the stretch? That’s the big question. On the other hand, the Pirates are tied with the Nationals for the most runs scored in all of MLB (516), so, I think they will get a big kick out of kicking the Giants’ collective ass. Prediction: 1-2
at Mets (3 games) — This team will probably remake itself at the deadline and I wonder if they will be one of those teams that improve after retooling on the fly. Anyway, unless the Mets reacquire Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso, I’m a bit more confident about the Giants facing the Mets. Then again, it’s a road series, and the Mets will still have Juan Soto (and Francisco Lindor, probably). Prediction 1-2
vs. St. Louis (3 games) — Another good road team (24-19, +40 run differential); however, this series will be the final leg of a 3-city, 9-game road trip for the Cardinals where the first two series are at Dodger Stadium followed by Coors Field. So, I’ll be a little bullish here. Prediction: 2-1
vs. San Diego (3 games) — Let’s just keep the good vibes going. Prediction: 2-1
at St. Louis (3 games) — Of course, the Cardinals will get their revenge. Prediction: 1-2
at Dodgers (3 games) — The Giants have played the Dodgers hard, but ending the season against them has, time and again, been disastrous. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Minnesota (3 games) — Will the Twins’ surprising season continue? They’ll have just come off a 4-game series against the Angels in Anaheim, but prior to that, they’ll have run a pretty remarkable gauntlet: 6 against the White Sox, 6 against the Tigers, 3 against the Guardians, and 3 against the Yankees. That 18-game stretch might be enough to short circuit their season and set them on a course to merely play out the string against the Giants. That’s the thinking I have to have in order to make this prediction: 2-1.
vs. Dodgers (3 games) — Since 2017, here is the Giants’ record versus the Dodgers in September: 11-27. For the sake of the rivalry, lets say Prediction: 1-2.

So, I can squint and see 30 wins the rest of the way, or 30-36, or 71-91, and that’s operating under the assumption that Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray are traded and that their replacements are capable and the rest of the roster plays at a level consistent with their recent run. Is that “respectable,” given that Buster Posey was brought in to put the franchise over the top rather than begin yet another rebuild? Would that stoke the hope that the future will be bright?

Yes, if some things break the Giants’ way later in the season, then it’s easy to imagine them netting a few more wins to get to 78-84, but maybe you, gentle reader, imagine something more ambitious. So, what say you? What’s a final record that sounds reasonable/plausible to you and also says, “Wow, that’s an impressive finish given their horrendous start?”

We’ve seen a few things occur as a result of the current, highly-diluted playoff format. One, which Alex Anthopoulos alluded to in remarks aired on a recent broadcast, was that the low barrier for entry (and though he didn’t say it, the implicit idea that said low barrier for entry has resulted in a lot of same-y, so-so rosters) has made teams hesitant to sell, in case they start playing well in July. The corollary to that, then, is that a team with a poor July can suddenly turn into a seller, even if that wasn’t the plan a few weeks ago.

The AL and NL are very different as we stand here at the All-Star Break. The AL has a bunch of teams with decent-to-good rosters not playing well, so the selling calculus is complicated by the fact that many of those teams probably expect to do much better over the remaining 70-odd games of the season. The NL has kind of the opposite issue, with less-than-complete rosters reeling off bunches of wins, which means less successful teams have a lot more leapfrogging to do.

With that said, here are six teams I’m thinking about:

The Orioles, Blue Jays, and especially the Tigers all seem like they might not sell because of their expectations going forward. If you figure the last AL Wild Card spot may truly be a .500 team, and these three teams with all their banked losses figure to win 78-79 games, then… maybe it’s worth it to try. The Tigers, in particular, project to have the fifth-best roster going forward, so it would be kinda weird to see that team sell. I don’t know if any of these teams will sell, but I’d mark it as somewhat surprising if they started right now. Of course, if they slide much more in the next couple of weeks, that’ll be a more obvious direction to take, but that’s why I’m asking the question now.

In the NL, the Cardinals are in an unexpected place because they have been winning while rebuilding. They’re currently one game out of a playoff spot, and if it came down to just them and the Marlins going forward, maybe they shouldn’t sell, figuring the Marlins’ bottom is at least as likely to drop out as their own. But this Cardinals team was also built around explicitly rebuilding and maybe moving some short-term signings for stuff to improve that rebuild, so…

Then you have the Diamondbacks and Padres, who are in a pretty similar position. The division is out of reach, but a Wild Card spot isn’t, and the rosters aren’t bad. The Padres actually seem like they might be more obvious sellers, but AJ Preller is a wild man.

Anyway, do you think any of these teams might sell when it comes down to it? Or, will it be another team that seems to be in an okay position right now (the Pirates, for example). Who ya got?

The Mets open a three-game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia on Thursday night at 7:10.

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Mets Notes

• A.J. Ewing is hitting .302/.369/.508 (.877 OPS) with six homers, eight doubles, 18 runs scored, and 18 RBI in 141 plate appearances over his last 36 games
• Juan Soto is slashing .316/.469/.622 (1.091 OPS) with eight homers in 128 plate appearances over his last 30 games
• Luke Weaver hasn't allowed an earned run since April 30. In 27.0 innings over 25 appearances since then, he has given up just 11 hits while walking seven and striking out 35

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Today's Lineups

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Meet the Mets

With the Trade Deadline approaching the Mets will need to focus on retooling for the future with this season dead in the water.

The team limps into the second half as one of the worst teams in the league and it’s not likely to get better any time soon.

Brett Baty has changed his approach at the plate which will hopefully lead to better success in the second half.

Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor were voted as two of the best athletes to play in New York right now.

The team signed Carson Wiggins, their top pick from this year’s draft, to a $3,466,500 signing bonus.

Around the National League East

The Braves have been struggling recently and have a few needs to fill if they want to stay atop of the NL East in the second half.

The Marlins open the second half against tough opponents as they try to compete for a playoff spot.

The players who represented the Phillies in the All-Star Gane were a big bust in front of their home crowd in Philadelphia.

The Nationals officially signed their first round draft pick, local kid Chris Hacopian.

Around Major League Baseball

The Brewers have reportedly traded for Lance McCullers Jr. from the Astros to bolster their rotation.

The Yankees have emerged as a potential suitor for Padres All-Star closer Mason Miller.

The All-Star Game remains a stressful experience for managers trying to keep other team’s pitchers from getting hurt in an exhibition game.

ESPN got an inside look at the White Sox draft room as they drafted Roch Cholowsky with the number one overall pick.

Pitchers in today’s game are throwing harder than ever before with many routinely hitting 100 mph.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Steve Sypa wrote draft profiles for Kooper Schulte, John Smith III, Marcus Ward, Cooper Dossett, Gavin Guidry, Dustin Hagens Jr., Zach Crotchfelt, and Jacob Madrid

Vasilis Drimalitis suggested that there are at least a few reasons to tune into games once the second half starts.

Lukas Vlahos wrote a trade deadline primer and speculated who could be on the move.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 2006, Cliff Floyd and Carlos Beltran hit a grand slam in the same inning in the team’s 13-7 win over the Cubs at Wrigley.