Category: Baseball

Happy Friday one and all.

The Arizona Cardinals are traveling to New Jersey to take on the New York Giants on Sunday morning, let’s not forget about that, as Barry so graciously spelled out for us:

The early game, the backup quarterback, the Arizona Cardinals being road favorites? None of it makes you comfortable ahead of this one.

Let’s take a look at some of the best bets for the Arizona Cardinals matchup with the New York Giants, with odds courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jacoby Brissett Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+122)

One thing we know, the Cardinals are going to throw the football. So, take Brissett’s overs as long as you can, it won’t always hit, but they are usually a plus value and the Giants have allowed 2+ passing touchdowns in two of their three games.

Cam Skattebo and Jeremiyah Love to Combine for 200+ Rushing Yards (+600)

The Cardinals ability to stop the run, and the Giants ability to stop the run are both bad. So, let’s take a big swing on this one, as a combined number could be anything, but we can hope Love has his full breakout and if you bet it, that the Cardinals continue to struggle to stop the run.

Cam Skattebo, Jeremiyah Love, and Trey McBride to Combine for 4+ TDs (+550)

I am not sure how the Giants will do on offense, but if they can move the ball, it’ll be against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, again between Trey McBride and Jeremiyah Love, I want to see one of them have a big day.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-106) and over 43.5 total points (-118) parlay for +230

I think the Cardinals get their second win of the season, they are 2-0 against the Harbaugh’s and that they score and the Giants move the ball better than they have with Jameis Winston.

Cardinals 27
Giants 24

When the Dodgers acquired left-hander Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline, they expected him to be a big part of their postseason plans. But they didn’t necessarily pencil him in as their Game 1 starter.

After mulling over their options this week, the Dodgers are expected to announce Friday that Skubal will take the mound in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, confirmed a person with knowledge of the situation who was not authorized to speak publicly.

Their plans for a sweltering 1 p.m. start Saturday against the Braves were first reported by the Athletic.

The rest of the Dodgers’ rotation order was not immediately clear, but right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto — who had seemed a strong option for Game 1 after his World Series heroics last year — pitched to batters during the Dodgers’ workout Wednesday. If he takes his usual five days of rest, that would line him up to pitch Game 3 in Atlanta on Tuesday. So, left-hander Blake Snell could pitch Game 2 Sunday at Dodger Stadium.

“To be honest, we can kind of really put all four guys in a hat and run them out there,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday. “But I think there is going to be more thought behind it.”

Skubal, who the Dodgers acquired from the Tigers for three prospects, has posted a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts for Los Angeles. He finished his regular season with a gem against the Giants last week: seven three-hit innings on just 75 pitches.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers won a championship in 2024 with a decimated starting rotation and dominant bullpen, then flipped the script with a stellar rotation buoying a shaky bullpen to win another title in 2025. This year the Dodgers might have melded the two heading into October.

“We have a lot of really talented arms,” general manager Brandon Gomes said Tuesday. “I think this is about as deep of a pitching staff as we’ve ever had. There’s a lot of really good options to work through as a group.”

For now, we’ll focus on the rotation, which looks just as strong this year as it did last October, even though Shohei Ohtani hasn’t pitched since July 3 and will not pitch this postseason. The Dodgers filled that slot with a two-time Cy Young Award winner, trading for Tarik Skubal on August 2.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was again the rock of the starting rotation, making every start for the second year in a row. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow each missed multiple months with a long injured-list stint in season, then returned with enough of a runway to get ready for October. All four put up solid numbers this season.

Pitcher	Starts	IP	ERA	xERA	BB rate	K rate
Skubal	26	158.7	2.72	2.94	4.4%	30.0%
Yamamoto	28	185	2.53	2.94	5.9%	25.7%
Snell	9	62	1.90	2.17	9.2%	31.8%
Glasnow	13	74	3.53	2.86	8.7%	34.0%

“To be honest, we can kind of really put all four guys in a hat, and run them out there,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday.

Last year, Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, and Glasnow combined to start all 17 postseason games, and put up a collective 2.55 ERA in 113 innings, with 127 strikeouts and a 28.5-percent strikeout rate. All four of them pitched in Game 7 of the World Series, including Yamamoto getting the final eight outs one day after winning Game 6 as the starter. Yamamoto last October pitched the Dodgers’ first two postseason compete games since 1988, and Blake Snell had starts of eight and seven innings as well.

Quality starts are a bit crude, but criticism tends to focus on the minimum requirements — at least six innings, with no more than three earned runs allowed. But across MLB this regular season, teams went 1,094-484 (.693) in games when they got a quality start, with a collective 1.74 ERA from the starters in those games.

This season, the Dodgers led the majors with 83 quality starts, eight more than the next-best team, the Philadelphia Phillies. Those 83 quality starts by the Dodgers this year were their most since 2015, when they got 95 quality starts from a rotation that included the second- and third-place finishers in National League Cy Young Award voting (Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw). They were 60-23 (.723) when getting a quality start in 2026.

Dodgers starters last postseason had 10 quality starts, more than any pitching staff since the 2013 Detroit Tigers. Those 10 quality starts in 17 games were one more than the Dodgers had in their previous five postseasons combined, totaling 53 games.

Last postseason, the Dodgers won all 10 of the games in which they received a quality start, with zero or one run allowed by the starter in seven of those games. Two of those quality starts were by Ohtani, but he’s replaced in the rotation by Skubal, who last postseason posted three quality starts in his three tries, totaling 36 strikeouts and four runs allowed in his 20 2/3 innings for the Detroit Tigers.

“Watching Tarik Skubal pitch in the playoffs last year was must-see TV. I was in awe, watching the energy, the dominance he exhibited there,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said in August after trading for Skubal. “I can’t wait to see it on our club.”

Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.

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No. 51, Jordan Beck (-0.9 rWAR)

I was genuinely expecting a big season from Jordan Beck.

Maybe not a breakout into stardom, but another step forward after a 2025 season in which Beck received an extended opportunity in the major leagues. He played 148 games and hit .258/.317/.416 with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases. There were still holes in his offensive game, particularly the strikeouts, but there was enough power and athleticism to believe he could establish himself as part of the Rockies’ outfield moving forward.

His path through the organization seemed to reflect that progress. Beck was briefly optioned to Triple-A in April 2025, returned less than two weeks later and essentially remained an everyday major-league player from there.

A year later, the path reversed.

Beck opened 2026 with the Rockies, struggled, landed on the injured list with a left hamstring strain and, when his rehab assignment ended in late June, was activated and immediately optioned to Albuquerque. By the time he returned in August, his role had changed.

The numbers

Level	G	PA	AB	H	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
MLB	63	180	165	33	17	8	2	1	11	14	57	2	.200	.261	.291	.552
AAA	26	114	104	28	15	7	1	7	20	8	26	4	.269	.325	.558	.882

Almost nothing went right. Beck hit .200/.261/.291 in 63 games with one home run. His major-league power disappeared, his already-high strikeout rate climbed, and his approach at the plate became increasingly exploitable.

What actually happened

Beck showed some early flashes. On April 14 in Houston, he got a 2-0 four-seam fastball from Colton Gordon and drove it 359 feet to right field.

It was his only home run of the season.

Six days later came his best game of the year. With Dodgers left-hander Justin Wrobleski starting at Coors Field, Warren Schaeffer moved Beck into the leadoff spot. Beck entered the night hitting .122 and immediately roped a double down the third-base line at 98.7 mph. He would then score on a Brenton Doyle double.

He added a check-swing single in the fifth, then put together perhaps his best plate appearance of the night in the seventh. Beck battled Wrobleski for nine pitches, fouled off three pitches with two strikes, worked the count full and lined a curveball to left field at 96.7 mph for a single.

He finished 3-for-4, with a run and an RBI. The Rockies lost the game 12-3.

Nine days later, Beck was again leading off against a left-hander, only this time everything looked different.

The Rockies battered Cincinnati for 13 runs and 15 hits on April 29. Beck was the only Colorado starter who didn’t get a hit, finishing 0-for-6 with two strikeouts while grounding into a double play.

His first plate appearance also offered an early look at a problem that would follow him throughout the season: after fouling off a fastball, Beck swung through consecutive sweepers from Brandon Williamson, the second finishing down and away for strike three.

There were good games. There were bad games. There just was never a run of the good ones.

The season took a larger turn in May when Colorado placed Beck on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. He began a rehab assignment with Albuquerque on June 23 and was activated five days later, but not back onto the Rockies’ active roster. Colorado instead optioned him to Triple-A, where he remained until his Aug. 3 recall.

Beck still had flashes after returning. On Aug. 25 in Washington, he went 2-for-4 against left-hander Andrew Alvarez, including a two-strike curveball he lined into center at 97.4 mph.

Beck later scored on a wild pitch, giving Colorado a 3-1 lead in a game the Rockies won by that score. It was a small glimpse of why left-handed pitching remained the obvious place for Colorado to keep looking for offense from him.

By late September, though, even the good at-bats had trouble turning into anything sustained. On Sept. 24 against Arizona, Beck struck out in each of his first two trips against left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez before putting together one of his better plate appearances of the afternoon in the sixth.

Beck fell behind 1-2, fouled off two pitches, worked the count full and lined a 91.6 mph four-seamer into left field at 103.9 mph for a single.

His next plate appearance lasted three pitches.

Dennis Santana threw Beck three consecutive sliders. Beck swung at all three.

He missed the first.

He foul-tipped the second.

And he chased the third down and away for strike three.

Kevin Ginkel struck him out on another slider down and away in the ninth, leaving Beck 1-for-5 with four strikeouts.

Two days later he doubled, and the following day he singled, and that was it. Beck finished the season exactly on the Mendoza Line at .200.

By then, the bigger change was how the Rockies were using him. Beck appeared in 33 of their final 50 games and started 26, with those opportunities increasingly tilted toward left-handed pitching.

The split made that understandable: He hit just .091/.157/.156 in 83 plate appearances against right-handers, compared with .295/.351/.409 against lefties. But even the favorable matchup wasn’t producing consistent results by the end. After returning from Albuquerque, Beck struck out 21 times in 56 plate appearances against lefties — 37.5% of the time.

His defensive role was fairly narrow, too. Beck’s home was in the corner outfield, where his arm remained the most obvious defensive tool, averaging 88.4 mph. On Sept. 5 against St. Louis, he charged a ball in right field and threw Thomas Saggese out at the plate, with replay confirming the call.

The overall defensive value wasn’t quite as strong as the arm, with Statcast grading Beck at -2 Outs Above Average.

By the end of the season, Beck was no longer functioning as an everyday outfielder. He had become a matchup-dependent corner outfielder who also received opportunities off the bench.

The strike zone kept getting bigger

The biggest change in Beck’s offensive profile wasn’t simply that he struck out more. It was that he started swinging at far more pitches he didn’t need to hit.

His strikeout rate did rise, from 29.6% in 2025 to 31.7% in 2026, but that increase alone doesn’t explain how much his production fell. His bat speed was still there, too, ticking up slightly from 73.2 mph to 73.9 mph.

What changed much more dramatically was his swing decision-making.

Pitchers didn’t radically reinvent the way they attacked Beck. The overall pitch mix remained fairly similar to 2025 outside of an increase in changeup usage, and the location profile wasn’t dramatically different either.

In 2025, 23% of the pitches Beck saw landed in Statcast’s Chase region, outside the edges of the strike zone. In 2026, it was 24%. Beck’s response to those pitches changed dramatically: His swing rate in that region climbed from 22% to 36%.

The same thing happened around the edges of the plate. His swing rate in Statcast’s Shadow region jumped from 53% to 63%, while his overall chase rate climbed from 27.4% to 38.0%.

Pitchers didn’t need to completely change how they attacked Beck. He was increasingly willing to expand the zone himself.

That was only part of the problem. When you look at how Beck performed against specific pitch types, another piece of the decline comes into focus: He wasn’t doing nearly as much damage against fastballs, particularly four-seamers.

Breaking pitches weren’t suddenly a new weakness. Beck’s production against them was fairly similar to 2025. Fastballs were different. He slugged .481 against them in 2025 and just .299 in 2026, while his slugging percentage against four-seamers fell from .521 to .282.

That matters because Beck wasn’t simply missing everything pitchers threw in the strike zone. His swing rate on pitches in the heart of the plate was exactly the same in both seasons at 73%, while his contact rate on pitches inside the zone actually improved slightly from 76.9% to 79.3%.

The contact just wasn’t nearly as dangerous.

His barrel rate fell from 9.6% to 3.7%, his hard-hit rate dropped from 38.5% to 32.1% and his expected slugging percentage fell from roughly .395 to .293.

So Beck was dealing with problems on both ends of the at-bat. He was chasing more pitches he didn’t need to hit, and when pitchers did come back into the zone with something hittable, he wasn’t punishing them the way he had a year earlier.

A hitter can survive a lot of strikeouts if the swings that connect produce damage. In 2025, Beck did enough damage to make the flaws work.

In 2026, he kept the flaws and lost the damage.

Where does Beck stand heading into 2027?

Beck is still only 25 years old, the athleticism and bat speed remain, and he is only one season removed from hitting 16 home runs in 148 games. Seven homers in 26 games with Albuquerque also suggest the physical power hasn’t disappeared.

But if he is going to reestablish himself as more than a matchup-dependent player, simply cutting down on the strikeouts probably isn’t enough. He needs to shrink the zone again while rediscovering the damage he did against hittable pitches in 2025.

That leaves Beck in a very different position than he occupied a year ago. He feels like a realistic change-of-scenery candidate this winter, young enough and with enough previous major-league success that another organization could look at the swing decisions, the platoon splits and the remaining physical tools and believe there is still something to unlock.

The Rockies could reach the same conclusion and give him another opportunity themselves.

I expected Jordan Beck to take another step forward in 2026.

Instead, he had moments, but never momentum.

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The Padres face the league’s winningest team in the Division Series, but don’t call them underdogs.

It seemed unlikely the Padres would ever make it this far. They closed out June with an eight-game losing streak and limped into the All-Star break with a .500 record. That’s something of a death sentence in the NL West, where the juggernaut Dodgers demand perfection to unseat them at the top. The Padres playoff odds fell as low as 7.4% in the final week of July. Who would or should be fired seemed like it’d be the only relevant conversation in October.

Fast forward to Wednesday: The Padres not only pulled off a convincing sweep of the Cubs in the Wild Card round, they were favorites to do so. Their 41-18 record over the final 10 weeks of the season was the best in the majors. In fact, it was 2 1/2 games better than the next best team, the Brewers, who they now face in the Division Series on Saturday. 

But it’s not just a vastly improved record. By WAR, a statistical stand in for “true talent,” no team was better in the second half than the Padres. They posted 21.9 WAR, narrowly besting the Cubs (21.8), Dodgers (21.5), Red Sox (21.4) and Brewers (20.2). It’s one of the great team-level turnarounds this century.

The surge in San Diego isn’t really too complicated. The Padres in the first half scored the fewest runs in all of baseball and posted a 90 wRC+. In the second half, they scored the third most runs and posted a 119 wRC+. With the Cubs out of the picture, the Padres arguably have the best lineup remaining in the postseason field.

It starts with the stars. Fernando Tatís Jr. has been on a torrid pace since a bizarre slump to begin the season. He struggled through May, hitting just .268/.345/.307 without a homer in his first 268 plate appearances. But he was absolutely crushing the ball at the same time, running a hard hit rate as high as 60%. The issue wasn’t so much the contact he was making but where it was going — either into the ground or toward the opposite field. On May 29, Tatís hit his first home run. He proceeded to slug 24 more before the season was up, with a slash line of .303/.368/.549 (153 wRC+). His 5.0 fWAR since that first homer was second best in the majors, behind only Pete Crow-Armstrong. Just as the Padres might have the best lineup remaining in the postseason, Tatís might be the best player.

What changed for him? We can see in the plot below that Tatís shifted his stance in the box, from a closed-and-wide stance early to a more open-and-upright stance the rest of the year. Again, he was already making lots of hard contact, but after the change, his contact was more likely to travel in the air and to the pull side. It’s a lot easier to hit home runs when a batter aims for the shallowest part of the park, and that seemed to be the difference for Tatís this summer.

Jackson Merrill struggles were even more pronounced early in 2026. Through June, Merrill hit .213/.271/.343 (72 wRC+). Since then, he’s hit .299/.338/.544 (141 wRC+). Unlike Tatís, there isn’t a clean narrative as to what changed. His hard hit rate has been strong all year. His strikeout hasn’t really changed, and he’s actually walking a bit less these days. It’s possible he was simply getting unlucky early, and the cyclical nature of baseball has shifted back in his favor. Regardless, the Padres with Merrill and Tatís have one of the great one-two punches in the majors, especially when you consider both players are solid defenders and great base runners.

But it’s more than just one great duo. Ty France seemingly out of nowhere had his best-ever season with a 141 wRC+, after bouncing around on waivers the last two years. Manny Machado hasn’t necessarily been a great hitter all around, but he still hit 30 homers and played excellent defense at third base. Even their platoons seem to be clicking, with guys like Samad Taylor, Austin Hays, and Dustin Harris playing well in limited roles. From top to bottom, things are going really well for the Padres lineup.

On the mound, well, it’s a good thing the Padres have a great lineup. The best thing I can say is they might be better served in these short series. There isn’t a ton of depth here. Michael King has dominated at times throughout his career, and in fact, we saw him spin one of his best-ever outings against the Cubs earlier in the week. But he’s not really a “true ace” more than simply the best starter in San Diego. From there, Nick Pivetta was really impressive this year, albeit in only eight starts — none more than five innings — after missing most of the season with an elbow injury. Then there’s Walker Buhler, who the Padres hope can find his former playoff dominance, even if he’s largely struggled since elbow surgery in 2022. There are other starters who could get a nod in the NLDS, but it’s worth emphasizing those are the three best the Padres have to offer at the moment. Starting pitching is far from a strength.

The good news for the Padres is they happen to have a lockdown bullpen behind them — without a doubt the best in the majors. Everyone knows about Mason Miller, who just finished one of the great reliever seasons in history. His fastball averages 101.4 mph, his slider is unhittable, and he strikes out half the batters he faces. Adrian Morejon serves as something of a 1b option for the Padres, as surely the best lefty reliever in the majors, generating tons of grounders with a heavy sinker and an invsi-ball changeup. One might even call Bradgley Rodriguez a third “one,” as the rare changeup-first pitcher. Honestly, I could just list the entire Padres bullpen: They are deep, varied, and highly effective all the way through.

They’re going to need to be against the Brewers in the NLDS. Milwaukee won 103 games this year as the winningest team in the majors for the second straight season. It was the first time in franchise history they’ve topped triple digits in the win column. Like the Padres, they have a great offense. Like the Padres, they have a great bullpen. But they also happen to have a great rotation and the league’s ace in Jacob Misiorowski. They’re the favorites in the series — and maybe the entire postseason — for a reason. To put it this way, the Padres with their surge have merely reached the level of the Brewers, who have been playing like this all season.

Still, this isn’t your standard 103-game winner versus 91-game winner, where the former is sure to bowl throughout the latter. The Padres are a very good team these days, and far better than their full-season record indicates. At the very least, either team would make a formidable opponent for the Dodgers in the NLCS, should they make it through Atlanta.

The Wild Card series against the Yankees was probably the worst way for the 2026 season to end. Everything that was a problem at any point – struggles to score runs, the bullpen, injuries – all happened at the same time and within a matter of minutes. Two games in a row ended the Red Sox season. This wasn’t the plan. As all the Sox players returned from the WBC to Fort Myers, many riding hot streaks, this looked like a team ready to rocket. Yes, there were questions entering the season. But there were answers that hadn’t been fully formed yet.

After the 2025 season, the Sox were desperate for infield help. Trevor Story, not a guarantee of health or success himself, since arriving in Boston, was coming off a tremendous year, his best for the Red Sox. The rest of the infield was a question mark. Third base was more-or-less vacant after Alex Bregman opted out. Second base was going to be a battle with the future potential of Marcelo Mayer as a leading contestant. First base? Triston Casas? Maybe? Catcher, using the more generous definition of infield, was a tandem based on Carlos Narváez hitting in 2025 and Connor Wong, who couldn’t hit at all. There were at least two guys, which was more than could be said about first base.

Craig Breslow looked at the free agent market. He looked at the trade market. He looked at his own farm system. And in two phases he built the roster that he would live or die with.

We know about phase one. Caleb Durbin was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers. Willson Contreras was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa was signed to platoon (kinda) with Mayer.

On the free agent market, the Red Sox went in the opposite direction. The promise/hope was two bats. And they passed on Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette etc. Aside from Contreras there were no big bats.

What Durbin would share with Willson, besides become Mini Bowser to his Bowser, was control. Contreras was guaranteed to be in town through 2027 with an option for 2028. Durbin will not hit free agency until the 2030s. The same with Mayer. Ranger Suarez, on the other side of the ball, also was signed long-term.

As it would turn out Willson Contreras would not even sniff competition from Triston Casas, who would face a series of injuries that would cost him the season. Not that anyone was worried about having too many first basemen. Caleb Durbin would start off slow with the bat, glacial even, but provide solid defense. He’d go on to set a new career high in home runs while, likely, competing for a Gold Glove.

Marcelo Mayer would underperform and then get hurt. Carlos Narváez would revert to his reputation as a bat-second player. While Connor Wong would provide some offense in a bounce-back season, the catcher tandem as a whole was underwater.

Phase two would be at the deadline. With Durbin rounding into form as The Durbinator, Breslow and his team set their sights on second base and catcher. Turning Connelly Early into Curtis Mead gave them another second baseman with control for years to come. And while the sample size is small, Mead hit 17 home runs in just 87 games. Adding a 30-homer threat to second base would be a tremendous pillar of the offense. Mayer would be traded separately, Mead would get hurt, but the plan was in place.

Similarly, the massive all-in prospect trade for Adley Rutschman was for 2026 and 2027. Connor Wong isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season so catcher is set for another year and they have time to evaluate Rutschman or find a replacement before 2028. For Breslow’s plan through this summer, when he didn’t know he’d be extended, that’s all that mattered. Build then best team for what could be his last season if they struggled.

Entering 2027 the Red Sox have two catchers. They have an entire starting infield, plus top prospect Franklin Arias. They have Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu (plus control of Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida, and Kristian Campbell) in the outfield.

The rotation has Payton Tolle, Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, and Jake Bennett. Boston holds an option on Sonny Gray that he can opt out of, but potentially the entire rotation is headed back for 2027. Starters 6-10 might be a concern, but for a healthy Opening Day major league roster, Breslow took care of that already.

We never actually got to see this team assembled together in 2026. Even if Curtis Mead came into the last game of the season while Garrett Crochet was on the mound, Roman was out. This year, unless there is a big trade to accommodate a move, the Hot Stove season won’t be the same. The roster is basically set. Did Breslow see the lockout as an obstacle? Maybe! He might have been thinking that teams would scramble to make moves before and after and he’d be set. For a team that was seeing it’s window open in 2025, it seems too intentional to put together the whole thing one year in with really only the Story to Arias transition as a big roster move to facilitate.

The performance of the team in 2026 was up and down, but overall we saw a number of good years from this group – Tolle, Abreu, Contreras, Rafaela, and Durbin all provide reasons to be optimistic. Roman Anthony had a good run around the hand injury. Six months off sure would be nice to let that heal. There’s reason to think 2027 can be fun. Maybe distributed a little better too.

Your Opening Day 2027 Boston Red Sox:

C: Rutschman, Wong

1: Contreras

2B: Mead, Sogard

SS: Story, Arias

3B: Durbin

OF: Roman, Rafaela, Abreu, Duran (if he’s not moved/non-tenderd), Campbell

DH: Yoshida

To begin their quest for a third-straight World Series this postseason, the Dodgers will turn to the one pitcher in their rotation yet to win a championship ring.

Tarik Skubal is expected to be named the team’s starter for Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, a source with knowledge of the situation told the California Post, giving the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner and marquee trade deadline acquisition an immediate opportunity to jump-start the club’s three-peat bid.

The Dodgers, of course, had no bad options for their playoff opener.

Their rotation includes four pitchers who would be No. 1 options on most other clubs, with Skubal being joined by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow for this year’s October push.

However, Skubal is set to get the nod, as The Athletic first reported, after increasingly impressive late-season performances with the Dodgers following his blockbuster arrival from the Detroit Tigers in August.

The 29-year-old left-hander posted a 5-2 record and 2.61 ERA in 10 post-deadline starts with the club, improving upon the 7-5 mark and 2.79 ERA he had with the Tigers during a first half that was sidetracked by an elbow procedure that sidelined him for all of May.

Skubal’s best outings came in the final weeks of the regular season, when he spun a pair of scoreless seven-inning starts in two of his final three appearances of the campaign.

Prior to Friday’s news, there was a thought that Yamamoto would be the Dodgers’ Game 1 starter, given his World Series MVP heroics last fall.

But Yamamoto threw extensively in a simulated game on Wednesday, during the club’s bye week workouts. That kept him on his customary once-per-week pitching schedule (his regular-season finale came on the Wednesday before that) and might line him up to pitch in Game 3 in Atlanta next Tuesday instead. Of note: Yamamoto has notably better splits on the road (1.77 ERA) than at home (3.13 ERA) this year.

Snell, who has followed Skubal in the Dodgers’ rotation lately, seems like the logical candidate to start Game 2 on Sunday. Glasnow, who pitched in another simulated game Thursday, figures to go in Game 4, and could be an option out of the bullpen this weekend.

While Skubal –– who will be the sport’s top free agent this winter –– has yet to win a World Series, he does have a sterling postseason track record.

In six playoff outings over the last two years with the Tigers, he pitched to a 2.04 ERA while striking out 56 batters in 39 ⅔ innings. Those numbers would be even better if not for his one October clunker, when he gave up five runs in a winner-take-all loss in Game 5 of the 2024 American League Division Series.

That failure has become a motivator for Skubal in the two years since. It has left him with a feeling of unfinished business as he begins another playoff campaign amid new surroundings now.

“Once the months change and the playoffs start, nothing matters,” he said last week. “It’s just about winning that game, and that’s how I treat every single start. Because I’m just trying to put our team in a position to win a baseball game. That won’t change from today, and whenever my next start is.”

The potential downside of being rusty after a long time off pales in comparison to the very real strain an extra series can put on a team’s pitching staff. The protagonists of the only Wild Card round to go all three games, the Atlanta Braves, advanced to face the Dodgers but did so, paying a high price with a pitching staff that went all in for its survival.

In what was quite the opening test against Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and company, the Braves’ starting rotation made a statement that any perceptions that it is too Chris Sale-reliant are an exaggeration. With Sale taking the ball in Game 1, Tyler Mahle in Game 2, and the left-hander Ray Kerr in the winner-take-all Game 3, the Braves’ rotation allowed just four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings—with the bulk of those runs coming off Sale, believe it or not.

When the Braves acquired Mahle at the deadline, they clearly saw something in him past the horrendous results he had been putting up for the Giants. Mahle has done better than anyone could have guessed, proving how much the organization matters for some players in certain moments, taking adjustments Atlanta has helped him with—including but not limited to a higher usage of splitters, his primary off-speed pitch—to dominate with a 1.99 ERA in nine regular-season starts.

Nine starts were all it took for Mahle to jump to the front of the line as the number two behind Sale—a position that had been sorely lacking for a Braves team that has seen Spencer Strider never be the same following his injuries, the latest of them taking him out for the year in June, and the same availability issues plague the promising Spencer Schwellenbach. Against the Phillies, Mahle might not have earned the win, but he did everything possible to lead his team there—Mahle held the Phillies to just one run in seven innings, the best start by a pitcher on either side of this three-game set.

Postseason baseball is filled with stories of players who take on a hot stretch and let that carry them to dominance through multiple series. But after one start, it might be too soon to be overly scared of a matchup against Mahle, regardless of how dominant he has been. He is the X-factor for the Braves, who’ll not only need him to perform well but also like an ace if their pitching is to line up with the Dodgers in any way.

From number two to number one, what Sale does goes without saying, but his aggressive usage out of the bullpen in Game 3 of the Wild Card round could potentially affect his rhythm for a Sunday Game 2 start at Dodger Stadium. And more importantly, whether it affects him, the fact that the Braves felt compelled to give him the ball while up 6-2 with only four outs to go tells you all you need to know about their pitching depth.

As far as Sale is concerned, Dodger fans don’t need reminding of his dominance—having witnessed it firsthand when the left-hander put out a vintage performance in a complete-game shutout of Los Angeles back in Atlanta during the regular season. And while Sale may not have yet pitched against the Dodgers in the playoffs as a Brave, there are wounds there from his time in Boston, on the mound for the final pitch of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium.

Projecting how the Braves rotation will line up against the Dodgers, it is clear that Sale gets the ball in Game 2, while Mahle goes in Game 3. The plans for the opening game of the series, though, are unclear as of now, partially because the Braves utilized their next two best starting options in Game 3 of the Wild Card round. Left-hander Ray Kerr looked solid for three-plus innings, and Grant Holmes provided key outs in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen.

For a shorter series against the Phillies, the Braves took only 11 pitchers, meaning an A.J. Smith Shawver could earn the nod for the NLDS and make this first start, or Atlanta could simply look to a bullpen game. Even if Shawver were to get the ball, considering he has come out of the pen near the end of the regular season, it’d be with a short leash.

Walt Weiss will speak this afternoon. I’m not sure if he’ll announce who will start against the Dodgers tomorrow. Right now, I’m guessing we’ll see another lefty opener followed by Grant Holmes, who threw just two innings (28 pitches) last night.

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) October 2, 2026

Based on who the Braves have lined up for Games 2 and 3 of the NLDS and how much certain relievers had to work against the Phillies—including their most utilized setup man, Didier Fuentes, who got the ball in all three games—the opener for the NLDS will be their most challenging game in the entire series. Those of us accustomed to the Dave Roberts method of managing wouldn’t be surprised to see him punt such a game early on if given this set of circumstances. We shall see how Atlanta approaches it: is it able to throw caution to the wind as the underdog or lean into the hand it was dealt?

Moving on from the rotation and on to Fuentes and the rest of this bullpen, Robert Suárez’s recent return from injury gives them a bit more depth in the backend, but the circle of trust is smaller than you’d like—and its propensity to get bitten by the long ball has already come into play in this series. Dylan Lee and Fuentes, two of Atlanta’s most trusted relievers, were responsible for the loss in game 2, with Lee giving up two solo bombs to Harper and Schwarber. While the number four in ERA in the regular season, the Braves’ bullpen was only 19th in HR/9.

Already a very good closer in his time with the Reds and Angels, Raisel Iglesias has raised his game to a new level with the Braves, including earning his second All-Star nod this season. As with the rotation, though, the comparison with the Dodgers is worse when you bring depth to the conversation.

Hopefully you all follow along and have seen the Game 162 Heroes and Goats and you already knew how the final standings ended up, at least at the top and bottom. Kudos to you if you knew by the end of the first inning on Sunday that Alex Bregman had likely secured the Rizzo. In reality, it was probably the second homer that did it. But either way, Bregman wins the closest finish in the 13-year history of the award.

For a reminder of that history of this award, here are the previous 12 years of Rizzo Award finalists. Alternatively titled: “Tom doesn’t make clearly readable/decipherable charts.”

Heroes:

• 2014 Rizzo 47.5 Arrieta 30 Castro 20.5
• 2015 Rizzo 65.5 Arrieta 51 Bryant 39
• 2016 Lester 51.5 Hendricks 37 Rizzo 34.5
• 2017 Rizzo 38 Contreras 34 Bryant 23
• 2018 Strop 22 Hendricks 20 Baez 19.5
• 2019 Rizzo 35 Bryant 34.75 Schwarber 19.25
• 2020 Darvish 19 Hendricks 18 Happ 14.5
• 2021 Schwindel +30 Bryant 26 Wisdom 26
• 2022 Robertson 22.5 Morel 18 Effross 17
• 2023 Bellinger 35 Happ 21.5 Alzolay 18
• 2024 Imanaga 23.5 Suzuki 20.5 Taillon 18
• 2025 Tucker 27 Taillon 24 Boyd 20

Goats:

• 2014 Lake -24 Schierholtz -27.5 Jackson -37
• 2015 Russell -19.5 Ross -21.5 Castro -24
• 2016 Baez -19.5 Russell -21.5 Heyward -48.5
• 2017 Heyward/Baez -19 Lackey -20 Zobrist -21
• 2018 Almora -26.5 Russell -42 Contreras -44
• 2019 Quintana/Almora -15.5 Strop -19.5 Heyward -20
• 2020 Rizzo -8.5 Bryant -10 Baez -22
• 2021 Bote -19 Arrieta -19 Davies -25
• 2022 Ortega -11.5 Gomes -14.5 Heyward -15.5
• 2023 Smyly -18 Mancini -20.5 Taillon -23
• 2024 Mastrobuoni -12 Paredes -14 Morel -20.5
• 2025 Swanson -22.33 Kelly -26 Suzuki -27

And with that, here are the final H&G standings for 2026. Bottom to top, the way it should be done.

Heroes and Goats: (full/final standings)

• Nico Hoerner -18
• Caleb Thielbar -17.5
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Seiya Suzuki -17
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Ryan Zeferjahn -8.5
• Jacob Webb -8
• Ethan Roberts -8
• Pedro Ramirez -8
• Ryan Rolison -7
• Corbin Martin -5
• Michael Busch -4
• Jordan Wicks -3
• Jake Woodford -3
• Justin Dean -2.5
• Matt Shaw -2
• B.J. Murray -2
• Antoine Kelly -2
• Hunter Harvey -2
• Hobie Milner -1.5
• Colin Rea -1
• Miguel Amaya -1
• Gabriel Arias -1
• Drew Pomeranz -1
• Scott Kingery -1
• Tyler Ferguson -1
• Moises Ballesteros -0.5
• Clay Holmes 0
• James Triantos +0.5
• Ty Blach +1
• Braxton Garrett +2
• Bryse Wilson +2
• Cade Horton +2
• Gavin Hollowell +2
• Daniel Palencia +3
• Kevin Alcantara +3
• David Peterson +4
• Matthew Boyd +5.5
• Tyrone Taylor +8
• Ian Happ +8.5
• Trent Thornton +10
• Aaron Civale +10
• Michael Conforto +10
• Javier Assad +11
• Carson Kelly +11.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Shōta Imanaga +15
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
• Alex Bregman +26

At a quick glance here, Alex Bregman was obviously able to make the most impact among free agents, Pete Crow-Armstrong among returning players, Ben Brown was the most unfortunate of the injuries, Javier Assad the most impact of the Iowa shuttle players, Aaron Civale the most impact of the in-season acquisitions, Tyrone Taylor of the deadline day acquisitions, Bryse Wilson the most of the in season waiver wire pickups (and eligible to be on the Milwaukee Brewers postseason roster).

So there you have it. It was a thrilling chapter to add to Heroes and Goats. We’ve had a few boring finishes, but 2026 becomes the year of the last game being decisive and the smallest ever margin of victory. It is fitting and enjoyable to me that the two men most responsible for the on field performance of this team finished number one and two. That doesn’t mean it is homogenous. There are a number of players near the bottom of the standings who I think are largely irreplaceable on this team. And if you go back up and browse history, some amazing Cubs have graced the bottom three in the past.

It feels safe to say that PCA will emerge once again as the favorite to capture this award in 2027, but here’s to hoping that Bregman keeps him honest again and that a few pitchers get more actively into the race.

Thank you everyone for reading. Thank you everyone who took the time to comment. We tend to have a very insightful group here and I appreciate that.

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The 2026 Arizona Fall League schedule kicks off tomorrow, October 3. There are six teams involved in AFL play, and all three teams will be playing on Saturday. The Surprise Saguaros — the team that the Texas Rangers’ prospects will be playing for — play their first game at 5:30 p.m. Central against Scottsdale in the middle game of the tripleheader.

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You can see the full Surprise roster here. We did a write up back in mid-September when the initial rosters were announced, and the Rangers contingent that was announced at the time was fairly underwhelming. The best prospect out of the eight members of the organization announced at the time was either pitcher Jacob Johnson, pitcher Mason McConnaughey, or outfielder Paxton Kling.

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Since then, though, it has been announced that Sebastian Walcott will also be participating. Walcott — who is #8 on the MLB Pipeline top 100 prospect list that came out this morning — is the Rangers’ top prospect, and the highest-ranked prospect (per MLB Pipeline) who is currently on an AFL roster for this fall.

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Walcott was briefly part of the 2025 Surprise Saguaros squad, but appeared in just one game before being sidelined with an elbow injury. He ultimately ended up undergoing elbow surgery in February, which put him on the injured list for the majority of 2026, and limited him to DH duties for most of the year. Having just logged 187 plate appearances in the minors in 2026 (with a .325/.401/.590), primarily at AA Frisco, this gives Walcott the opportunity to make up some of the reps that he missed.

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Something to keep an eye on is where in the field Walcott plays for Surprise. Walcott has primarily played shortstop in the minors, with some games at third base, though he played just two of his 41 games this past season at DH, with two appearances at shortstop.

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Walcott could be ready to be a major league regular at the start of the 2027 season, in which case, the Rangers will have to decide where in the field he would play. Corey Seager is the team’s shortstop, and is still quite capable there, so Walcott would presumably not be an option at shortstop unless Seager is trade this offseason (which I sadly acknowledge is not out of the question). Third base and right field, however, are viewed as Walcott’s most likely long-term home in the majors.

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The Rangers have Josh Jung at third base, though his defensively metrics have not been good at the position, particularly in 2026. Putting Jung at first base, with Walcott taking over at third, would seem to be the most viable solution. The Rangers could then decide if they wanted to keep Jake Burger around in a DH role or as depth — and given Jung’s injury history, it isn’t unreasonable to think that they need a quality Plan B behind Jung, regardless of what position he plays.

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Alternatively, the Rangers could look at putting Walcott in right field, where Brandon Nimmo played in 2026. That would allow them to either have Nimmo get the bulk of his plate appearances at DH, while also picking up some playing time in the outfield when one of the regular outfielders sits or gets a DH day, or put Nimmo in left field, with Wyatt Langford moving to center field.

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Where Walcott gets his playing time won’t necessarily tip the Rangers’ hand in regards to their 2027 plans with Walcott — shortstop is the most challenging defensive position (other than catcher) in the field, and moving from there to another position farther down the defensive spectrum is easier than the other way around. If Walcott gets most of his reps there, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Seager is gone, or that Walcott is destined to start the 2027 season at Round Rock.

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However, if we see Walcott getting a bunch of starts at third base or right field, it would potentially hint at where the Rangers view him most likely contributing in 2027.

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Which Phillies are headed for free agency as pivotal offseason looms? originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

On Friday, after the Phillies fell in the National League Wild Card Series, Bryce Harper said he expects the team to look “a lot different” next year.

He later clarified that he was referring, at least in part, to the number of players who can reach free agency this offseason.

And there are plenty.

Seven players from the Phillies’ 2026 roster are set to become free agents: Alec Bohm, Luis Arraez, Adolis García, Edmundo Sosa, José Alvarado, Brooks Raley and Tim Mayza. Three of them — Bohm, Sosa and Alvarado — have been around since at least the Phillies’ 2022 run to the National League pennant.

How aggressively Philadelphia approaches replacing or retaining them comes with another layer of uncertainty. The league is heading toward an unsettled offseason with the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire after the 2026 season, creating questions about how teams will operate financially.

The Phillies do have significant salary coming off the books. Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, both released before reaching the final seasons of their contracts, account for $38 million alone. If none of the seven impending free agents return, roughly $78 million in 2026 cash salary would no longer be committed.

A good portion of that relief is already spoken for.

Kyle Schwarber, Jesús Luzardo, Brad Keller and Cristopher Sánchez are all due raises in 2027, combining for roughly $38 million in additional salary. Jhoan Duran, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh are also arbitration-eligible again as they enter their final seasons of team control.

So there will be flexibility, but perhaps not as much as the raw number initially suggests.

Here’s a look at each of the Phillies’ seven impending free agents:

Alec Bohm, 3B/1B, age 30

2026 stats: 155 G, .249/.315/.383, 15 HR, 88 RBI, .698 OPS
2026 salary: $10.2 million

Bohm represents the most significant homegrown decision of the group. The Phillies’ first-round pick in 2018 remains a premium run producer at a time when productive right-handed hitters are increasingly difficult to find. He is one of only seven right-handed hitters to drive in at least 85 runs in three of the last four seasons.

His final numbers also don’t completely reflect the hitter he was for most of 2026. After a difficult offseason off the field and a rough opening month, Don Mattingly gave Bohm two days out of the lineup to reset. From May 9 through the end of the season, Bohm hit .274 with 14 homers, 73 RBI, 41 extra-base hits and a .773 OPS over 120 games while batting .347 with runners in scoring position. Prorated over 162 games, that’s a 19-homer, 99-RBI pace.

And he had quite the Wild Card Series, hitting the would-be game-winning homer in Game 2.

The complication continues to be where he plays. Bohm moved from third to first after the Arraez trade, but finished with minus-11 Outs Above Average and ranked in the first percentile among MLB fielders. His right-handed bat has value, but he reaches free agency without one obvious long-term defensive home.

Luis Arraez, 2B, age 29

Phillies stats: 46 G, .278/.309/.369, 2 HR, 21 RBI, .678 OPS
2026 salary: $12 million
Approx. salary with Phillies: $3.5 million

The Phillies acquired Arraez and right-hander Caleb Kilian from San Francisco at the deadline for pitching prospects Marty Gair and Ramon Marquez. The three-time batting champion arrived hitting a league-leading .324, but his production dipped considerably after joining Philadelphia.

His influence went beyond his batting average. Arraez gave the Phillies a hitter who rarely swung and missed, while his arrival triggered several positional changes: Bryson Stott moved to third, Bohm shifted to first and Bryce Harper returned to right field. The defensive alignment improved, with Stott in particular showing how much value his glove could provide at third.

Arraez’s absence late in the year also showed why the Phillies wanted his skill set in the first place. He sprained his left ankle on the final Thursday of the regular season and never played again, missing the Wild Card Series while Philadelphia again struggled with chase and consistent contact.

Adolis García, RF, age 33

2026 stats: 67 G, .195/.270/.329, 7 HR, 21 RBI, .599 OPS
2026 salary: $10 million

The Phillies took a one-year flier on García hoping a change of scenery could help revive some of the power that once made him one of the American League’s more dangerous hitters. It never came together consistently. García continued to swing and miss at a high rate, striking out 84 times in 259 plate appearances while hitting below .200.

What he did provide was some of the best right-field defense Philadelphia has seen since Harper moved to first base. García’s arm remained a weapon, he covered ground and brought stability to a position that had been a defensive weakness for years.

He also quickly became a respected presence inside the clubhouse. His season ended in June after he tore his right latissimus dorsi while making a throw home, requiring surgery and cutting short any chance for the Phillies to see whether his bat could come around over a full season.

Edmundo Sosa, INF/OF, age 30

2026 stats: 84 G, .242/.280/.410, 8 HR, 43 RBI, .690 OPS
2026 salary: $4.4 million

Sosa’s season-long numbers were a little deceiving considering how strongly he finished. Over his final 50 games, he slashed .275/.313/.493 with 16 extra-base hits and an .806 OPS in 149 plate appearances.

A large portion of his offensive value again came in key situations. Sosa hit .323 with a .923 OPS with runners in scoring position, with that OPS ranking in the 89th percentile among the 298 hitters with at least 70 plate appearances in those situations. He also ranked in the top 16 percent of MLB players in Outs Above Average and sprint speed.

Sosa played through discomfort late in the season and remained available wherever the Phillies needed him. He has been with the organization since the 2022 trade deadline, becoming a fan favorite while filling just about every role imaginable across the infield and outfield. His versatility and right-handed bat could make him attractive to several teams looking for more than a traditional bench player.

José Alvarado, LHP, age 31

2026 stats: 68 G, 5-4, 5.86 ERA, 58⅓ IP, 70 K, 1.65 WHIP
2026 salary: $9 million

Few players have experienced more of this Phillies era than Alvarado. He joined the organization before the 2021 season and, at his best, developed into one of baseball’s most overpowering left-handed relievers.

But 2026 was a significant step backward. Alvarado continued to miss bats, striking out 70 in 58⅓ innings, but his 5.86 ERA and 1.65 WHIP pushed him away from the high-leverage role he once owned. The Phillies exercised his $9 million option for 2026 after his 2025 season was interrupted by an 80-game PED suspension, but the dominant version of Alvarado never returned consistently enough.

That makes this offseason different from previous ones. Philadelphia is no longer simply planning around Alvarado as one of its late-inning fixtures. It has to decide whether there is still enough upside to keep him in a bullpen that already figures to undergo changes.

Brooks Raley, LHP, age 38

Phillies stats: 16 G, 7.94 ERA, 11⅓ IP, 11 K, 1.94 WHIP
2026 salary: $4.75 million
Approx. salary with Phillies: $1.4 million

Raley looked like one of the safer bullpen additions available when the Phillies acquired him from the Mets at the deadline for outfielder John Spikerman and right-hander Luke Gabrysh. He arrived with a 1.96 ERA in 45 appearances for New York.

Almost none of that success followed him across the division.

Raley allowed 10 earned runs and four home runs in only 11⅓ innings with Philadelphia, finishing with a 7.94 ERA after the trade. His struggles eventually pushed him far enough down the bullpen pecking order that the Phillies left him off their Wild Card roster.

At 38, Raley reaches free agency after two completely different halves of a season: one that made him an appealing deadline target and another that kept him from being usable when the Phillies reached October.

Tim Mayza, LHP, age 34

2026 stats: 60 G, 6 GS, 3-4, 3.48 ERA, 67⅓ IP, 64 K, 1.13 WHIP
2026 salary: $1.75 million

Mayza quietly became one of the steadier pieces in an otherwise volatile Phillies bullpen. He gave them 67⅓ innings, handled six opener assignments and finished with a 3.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

He was never deployed as a traditional late-inning reliever, but his ability to handle left-handed hitters, cover multiple innings and occasionally open games gave Mattingly useful flexibility over a long season. For a club that will once again have bullpen holes to fill, Mayza provided considerable value relative to his $1.75 million salary.

The Phillies now have to decide whether that reliability is worth bringing back or whether the bullpen needs a more significant overhaul after another season in which the rotation carried a disproportionate share of the pitching load.

Dylan Crews’ first two seasons with the Nationals fell short of the expectations that followed him into professional baseball. He hit .218 with three home runs in 31 games after his 2024 debut, then posted a .208/.280/.352 line with 10 home runs in 85 games in 2025. There were flashes of power and speed, but little sustained production from a player expected to become a cornerstone of the rebuild.

There were circumstances worth considering. His 2024 season was a brief introduction to major league pitching, while a left oblique strain cost him nearly three months in 2025. Those interruptions made development difficult, but they did not erase the concerns surrounding his bat.

Entering his third major league season, 2026 offered a fresh start. Blake Butera took over as manager, and a new hitting staff led by Matt Borgschulte, with Andrew Aydt and Shawn O’Malley, brought different perspectives to a young lineup. Crews seemed like an obvious candidate to benefit from the new perspective of the analytically minded coaching staff.

The preseason optimism made sense. A healthy season and new coaches offered hope that the former second overall pick could begin translating his talent into consistent production. After two disappointing years, a breakout would have helped establish his place alongside the Nationals’ emerging core.

It was clear from the beginning that a Dylan Crews breakout wasn’t going to occur right away, as on March 20, the Nats optioned Crews to Triple-A Rochester after he hit .103 through his first 12 spring games. A season that was supposed to establish him in the majors would begin with him trying to earn his way back. The decision was controversial, but the fact of the matter was Crews had areas he needed to improve if he was going to have consistent success as a big league hitter.

His time in Rochester eventually produced encouraging results. Crews hit .258/.345/.432 with five home runs in 41 games. Over his final 17 games there, he hit .308 and slugged .585 while lowering his strikeout rate to 22.5 percent. He earned himself another opportunity in the bigs, getting called back up in mid-May.

Through his first 25 games back with the Nationals, Crews hit .189 with a .567 OPS. The return to the majors did not immediately bring the breakthrough fans had hoped for, and his offensive struggles continued. He was hitting the ball harder than ever, but also swinging and missing at a career-high clip.

July finally offered a glimpse of a more complete hitter. Crews drew 14 walks and finished the month with a .372 on-base percentage and an .801 OPS. The improved patience was significant. He was finding ways to contribute beyond hits, giving himself better opportunities to reach base and do damage.

Then August brought another reversal. His OPS dropped to .558, and he hit one home run in 28 games. Just when his approach appeared to be coming together, the production disappeared again.

September supplied some renewed encouragement. By September 9, six of his previous seven hits had gone for extra bases, including five doubles. He also homered and scored three runs in the Nats’ September 25 win over the Mets.

Crews finished with a .223 average, 13 home runs, 44 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a .663 OPS. It was a slight improvement over his 2024 and 2025 numbers, but nowhere near close enough to guarantee Crews a starting spot on the 2027 Nationals, a team that in all likelihood will be aiming to compete for a playoff spot.

So where do the Nationals go from here with Dylan Crews? The draft pedigree and the flashes of success make him a tantalizing player that you want to give regular playing time to see if he’ll break out, but the struggles, especially against right-handed pitching, make it difficult to play him every day when better options may be available.

The Nationals coaching staff showed a lot of faith in Crews in the back half of 2026, hitting him near the top of the lineup even against righties, who he struggles mightily against. Paul Toboni has also said they view Crews as a key piece of their competitive rosters in the future. But through 225 big league games over the course of 3 seasons, Crews is not growing at a rate that suggests he can flip a switch and be an above-average regular one day, and he is creeping closer and closer to reaching arbitration, where he will receive a sizeable pay increase compared to his current salary.

I’d like to see the Nats give Crews one more shot to prove himself as a big league regular in 2027, but if they were to consider other options, such as a trade this offseason or turning him into a platoon hitter only against lefties midseason, I wouldn’t be opposed. If the Nats plan on taking another leap in 2027 into contention, they need to be maximizing value everywhere they can on the roster, and that starts with Dylan Crews proving he’s worth giving everyday at bats.