Category: Baseball

It’s that time again! MLB Opening Day is a week away, so it's time to update the rankings one last time.

This is now my third year publishing my top 150 starting pitchers. I published a version of these in February, but obviously, there have been some changes since spring training began. If you’ve read my work before, you know I generally hate publishing starting pitcher rankings because they never feel done to me. As somebody who spends a lot of time watching/thinking about pitching, I always feel like there are tweaks I want to make or pitchers who I constantly change my opinion of.

It’s important to note that I only partially rely on surface-level stats when constructing my rankings. I will look at last year’s SIERA, K-BB%, swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) to get a sense of how the pitcher performed (even though I usually remember), but much of my analysis is done by breaking down a pitcher’s arsenal. I’ll use the Pitcher List pages, plus my knowledge of the pitcher, to get a sense of whether I believe the pitcher can consistently pound the strike zone and miss bats, and whether he has a deep enough arsenal to pivot if something isn’t working. I don’t use projections in my pitcher analysis, so you may see some variation from typical rankings, and I’m OK with that.

As always, the pitchers are split into tiers, which I’ve named with movie quotes this year, so you can hopefully understand why the pitchers are ranked where they are. The tiers themselves are more important than the rankings inside the tiers, so I wouldn’t split hairs over a few spots in the rankings.I’ve also ranked these pitchers as if I’m doing a 12-team league, so safe but boring low-end starters take a hit in value, etc.

PLEASE READ: I went to a lot of effort to ensure I share my thoughts on the rankings below, so you’ll find short blurbs with my thoughts “off the dome” for these guys. I would highly encourage you to read the blurb and not just focus on the ranking because it allows you to get a sense of WHY I have the pitcher ranked where I do, and if that logic makes any sense to you.

OK? Ok, so let’s get started.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings 2026

Look, all three of Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes are elite, so you're kind of splitting hairs here. For me, there are a few deciding factors. For one, Crochet and Skubal miss more bats, ranking 1st and 2nd in all of baseball in strikeout rate. Skubal and Crochet also threw more innings than Skenes last year, and Skenes pitches for the worst team of the three, which could impact win totals. Crochet and Skubal have more clearly dominant out pitches in my mind, and so I lean with the two of them over Skenes and favor Skubal because he has a longer track record of success than Crochet.

Last season, I said that Bryan Woo would be a top-20 pitcher if he could stay healthy, but I didn’t rank him there because I didn’t believe in his health. Whoops. Woo has great fastballs and improving secondaries, and is perhaps the highest upside pitcher in this tier if we could guarantee health. We can't, unfortunately, so you might feel that this is too large a risk to take (and I mostly don't draft starting pitchers early enough to take ones in this tier, so I may agree). However, I think this is where he belongs based on his talent.

Logan Gilbert battled some injuries this past season and continues to struggle to maintain a consistent approach. However, despite that, he also continues to produce, registering a 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 32% strikeout rate. Maybe I’m too high on him because he has yet to deliver at the level of a true fantasy stud, but he has all the tools and an elite home park. It will happen one season. Perhaps this is the one.

Cristopher Sanchez was a breakout star in 2025, posting a 2.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 26.3% strikeout rate in 202 innings. He pitches for a strong team and has an elite changeup to put away righties. The breakout feels very real; however, I don't think we're going to see the ratio production that we saw last year because that came with an 80% left-on-base rate and some strong hit luck. I do think Sanchez is good for an ERA around 3.00, and so I'd be more than happy with him as my ace.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the “workhorse” of the Dodgers’ rotation, making 30 starts. He looks like the most likely candidate to lead the team in innings in 2026 and was electric when he was on the mound. I know some people have concerns about him pitching in the World Baseball Classic and then starting this season healthy, but this is a guy who threw over 190 innings per season in consecutive seasons in Japan; I'm not overly worried about his durability, but the Dodgers are also going to use a six-man rotation, so I doubt he comes close to that 190 innings mark. We just saw what 170 innings from him does for your fantasy team, and you'd be ecstatic if he does it again. However, his doing that last year, with elite ratios, made him the SP7 in FanGraph's Player Rater. Now, there is an argument that he should have had more than 12 wins, but we have to acknowledge that the innings limit will make it harder for Yamamoto to surpass some of the other top tier pitchers if they throw 180+ innings.

Max Fried is just about as safe as they come. He’s had minor injuries over the last two seasons, but we know that when he’s on the mound, he is really good in every category without being a true elite standout in any. There is very little risk with Fried.

Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Cole Ragans was in my top 10 heading into 2025 after posting a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 223 strikeouts in 186.1 innings the season before. However, he battled through a groin injury last year and wasn't able to live up to those expectations. Still, he came back from his groin injury healthy at the end of the season and was striking out tons of batters, which makes me confident that he will head into 2026 with the same potential for excellence.

I discussed Hunter Brown in my presentation at First Pitch Arizona, and there are a few things that make me pause a bit. His fastball command was poor last year, with a fastball zone rate under 50%, and his entire arsenal grades out poorly in Pitcher List’s PLV model, which takes location into account. I don't want to over-weigh those things, and I still think Brown is good, hence the ranking, but I have some pause about placing him in the tier above until we see the fastball command improve and a true secondary pitch standout from the rest.

I mentioned some red flags on George Kirby in that same FPAZ presentation, but it was mainly that his best secondary to righties is a slider that posted just a 14% swinging strike rate. That's fine, but not truly elite, and his fastball zone rate has decreased in each of the last two seasons. However, some of the zone rate issues last year were due to injury, and he was trying to get his fastball out of the zone above the letters more often to get chases, so I do like that strategy. Kirby's 4.21 ERA was just below league average, but he had a .315 BABIP and below-average LOB% as well, which means I’m looking more at his track record when projecting his ratios or his 3.39 SIERA. I think Kirby is a slight improvement in his slider away from being a legit top 10 ace, so this feels like a good spot for him, given that he also feels like a safer bet for innings than most of the other arms in this tier.

Jacob deGrom pitched 172.2 innings in 2025, and we know he’s elite when he gives us volume. Yes, he’s not as dominant as he was in previous seasons, and there’s no guarantee that he pitches over 130 innings next season, but I can take the gamble here.

Joe Ryan’s season nose-dived a bit once the Twins started selling off pieces and not contending. I can’t really blame him for that. The talent is there, and I expect him to be on a new team (eventually) that may have some direction on how to establish a consistent approach with his secondaries. Even without a new team, Ryan has an elite fastball and a deep pitch mix that gives him safety even if that one secondary pitch hasn't truly emerged.

Yes, I have Kyle Bradish in this tier. I look at him a bit like I looked at deGrom heading into 2025 after deGrom came back and made three starts in 2024. We have seen that Bradish is healthy, and we’ve seen what he can do when he is. His slider and curve are elite secondary pitches that will help him rack up strikeouts, and he understands that his four-seamer isn't an elite pitch, but he has a good approach and command of it to keep hitters off the barrel.

Logan Webb used to be a fringe top 10 pitcher because of his innings reliability and solid ratios. However, we’ve seen his WHIP become a bit less consistent thanks to some pitch mix tinkering. I’m not sure Webb has settled into what type of pitcher he wants to be, and maybe the new coaching staff can help with that. My concerns about his WHIP and the infield defense behind him (Luis Arraez at 2B? Gross), have him down near the bottom of this tier for me.

Chris Sale remains elite when he's on the mound, but we also know that he’s rarely on the mound for the full season. Similarly, Shohei Ohtani is in this tier thanks to his confusing workload. We assume the Dodgers will use a six-man rotation or limit his innings in some capacity in 2026. Ohtani has elite strikeout upside and a great chance at wins, but what if he throws just 140 innings? It’s certainly possible, so workload concerns keep both of these guys a little lower than their raw talent would indicate.

Freddy Peralta was tremendous this past season, but he had 18th-percentile four-seam fastball command and benefited from the dead ball, which led to far fewer home runs than usual. However, he also leaned on his curveball a bit more often, which was a solid move for him. I think the batting average luck will regress to the norm a bit, but he also gets a ballpark upgrade moving to Citi Field, so I'm treating Peralta as if he'll produce slightly below the level we saw last year.

I’m fully in on Eury Perez heading into 2026, as I noted in my FPAZ presentation and in my article on What Makes a Top 25 Starting Pitcher. The average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) for the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 13.7%, and Perez posted a 14.8% rate, thanks, in large part, to a sweeper with a 22% swinging strike rate to righties and a harder slider with a 21% swinging strike rate to lefties. He throws a 98 mph fastball with an elite zone rate and has a deep five-pitch mix. He's now another year removed from Tommy John surgery, and I think this is the breakout season. My only concern with Perez is innings, but I feel like he could become a top 25 starter even if he only throws 150 innings this season.

This is a tier of pitchers who have clear ace upside but plenty of question marks either about health, team context, or lack of track record. I would be OK targeting at least one pitcher in this tier, but I don’t think I can wait around and take one as my ace, and I wouldn't have multiple on my teams.

I have more concerns about Tyler Glasnow’s health than I do most of the other pitchers in the top 25, and so this may be the year I finally decide not to rank him that highly. He'll be healthy to start the season, so you can bank on the production from him now and adjust later, if need be. Since I rank for 12-team leagues with IL spots, I think this is a fair place to take Glasnow. However, he has only one season in his entire career with over 120 innings, so I can't in good conscience expect more than that from him, and that makes him harder to draft in NFBC-type formats.

Speaking of poor fastball command, Dylan Cease had an 8th-percentile zone rate on his four-seamer last year. That's, um, not good. At this point, I think we know who Cease is. No approach or team will change that. He has toyed with adding new pitches, but can't seem to find consistency with them. He'll have stretches where he's nearly unhittable and stretches where he can't find the zone. It may even out in the end, but the process will be a huge headache.

Jesus Luzardo is tremendously volatile; we know this, so I think we need to stop making the argument that "If you remove that really bad stretch from last season." We can't remove that bad stretch; he almost always has those bad stretches. The new sweeper was a tremendous addition for him, and we know that the Phillies will put him in a solid position for wins regularly. But I think we've already seen his upside. I don't believe there is another level to unlock, and I think consistency will always be something that eludes him, so I had to keep him in this tier.

These are all pitchers who have some track record of success and have spiked really strong seasons, but they haven't demonstrated the upside of the more volatile arms above. These guys all feel safe, and if they were your SP3 or your SP2 in a 15-team league, I think you'd be in great shape.

Framber Valdez is who he is at this point. He’s a two-pitch pitcher who relies heavily on his curveball and will have stretches of elite production and stretches where he gets hit too hard. Last season, he had a SwStr% of 12.6, but the average SwStr% for the top 25 SP was 13.7%. He also had a K-BB% of 14.8% in 2025, where the average K-BB% among the top 25 starting pitchers was 20.4%. That’s a pretty stark difference. He does have a sinker that he commands well in the zone, a pitch mix that grades out well by PLV, and a history of solid hit suppression, which are all things we like. In the end, Valdez’s muted strikeout upside and his more limited pitch mix cause him to rely so heavily on his curveball for success. That makes him a fringe top 25 arm who is often ranked too high.

Like all Rays pitchers, Ryan Pepiot will no longer be pitching in a minor league park, which could mean fewer home runs, which were a major problem for him in 2025. His four-seam fastball has good velocity at 95.2 mph with strong extension and a flat attack angle, so he gets lots of swings and misses up in the zone. It had both an above-average swinging strike rate and putaway rate in 2025. He has a 12.5% SwStr% against right-handed hitters with both his slider and cutter, which is slightly below where we’d like, but, again, his four-seamer is a true whiff pitch for righties. His changeup had a near 14% SwStr% to lefties, and the cutter is a nice strike pitch to lefties, so I like the depth of his overall pitch and his ability to get whiffs for both righties and lefties. He continues to rock really above-average H/9 rates and a solid swinging strike rate, and I think this is the season it comes together.

Really, the only knock against Drew Rasmussen last year was volume, which is to be expected after coming off Tommy John surgery. He’ll no longer be pitching home games in a minor league park, and I think he could push six or seven innings in most of his starts now. He’s not the highest upside arm, and he had just a 10.8% SwStr% and a 15.4% K-BB% last season. Yet, there are also some things to like. His fastball has above-average velocity, league-average command, and a flat attack angle that allows it to miss bats. His cutter eats up lefties and also posts a 16.5% SwStr% against them, and his sinker just gets beat into the ground by righties. I think he has proven that he can induce weak contact, but his strikeout rate is likely capped at around 22%. That all still makes him a fringe top 25 arm, however.

Nick Pivetta had his best HR/FB% season ever, and you have to think the deadened ball we saw in 2025 had something to do with that. What if that ball isn’t back in 2026? Can we really trust a pitcher who only has one season with an ERA under 4.00? Pivetta posted just a 10.5% SwStr% and has a career 10.7% mark, so when you pair that with a four-seam fastball with below-average velocity and command, it’s not an ideal combination, even though the four-seamer does get whiffs up in the zone. He also posted a 19% K-BB%, which is fine but below the average for top 25 starting pitchers last season. I know he has a pitch mix that grades out well by PLV, but it’s a far narrower mix than we believe, and I think much of his success can just be attributed to his HR/FB rate dropping to 9.7% after being over 15% for his career.

I always believed Sandy Alcantara was more of a safe SP2 than an ace. I was wrong for a while, but perhaps it’s settling in a bit now. Alcantara seemed to get a little bit back to himself at the end of the season, as I covered in my bounce-back starting pitchers article. In 12 starts from July 23rd to the end of the season, Alcantara posted a 3.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 22.4% strikeout rate. That came with a 12.2% SwStr% and very little hard contact. He's now split his slider into more of a cutter and a sweeper in an effort to improve his strikeout rate, and the cutter has looked pretty good this spring. He also threw 175 innings in his first year back from Tommy John, so I expect 180+ this season. I’d prefer if he were traded, but Miami was feisty down the stretch, so maybe they could be in for a solid season.

It's really two injuries for Nathan Eovaldi. The right-hander was shut down in August with a rotator cuff strain, but then also underwent sports hernia surgery during the offseason. Eovaldi has said that he’s fully recovered from the rotator cuff strain and that he's coming into spring training as healthy as he has in years past. That's the key part for me. I don't love drafting pitchers who are coming off a rotator cuff injury; however, Eovaldi has battled arm injuries many times throughout his career. When you draft him, you know that you're getting good production when he's on the mound, but not a full season of innings. That's why his draft cost never gets too high, so I won't be changing the way I draft him in 2026. MARCH UPDATE: Eovaldi has come out this spring with his velocity UP from last year, and he's also showing off a new slider. I won't bank on more than 130 innings, but I think the innings we get are going to be really good ones.

All of these guys have the upside to finish inside the top 20 overall starters, but also have clear warts or a lack of track record, which adds some volatility. However, if I can get an established ace earlier in my drafts, I'd love to snag at least two of these guys.

Michael King was my 8th-ranked starting pitcher coming into last season, but a shoulder injury sapped much of that production. However, that was due to a pinched nerve and not any issue that was connected to baseball, so I'm not going to use that injury as a knock on his durability. Even if I can’t give him 180 innings again, I also can’t pretend that I don’t love the skillset, so this feels like a good place to rank him.

I have come around a bit on Cam Schlittler, but I still have some concerns, which I outlined in my FPAZ presentation. For starters, he’s so fastball heavy. He has a four-pitch mix, and three of them are fastball variations. He doesn't throw a single pitch to righties that's under 91.5 mph, unless you count a curve that he only uses 5% of the time, which I don't. I think that could be an issue over the longer season. Also, his four-seam fastball had below-average command. That’s not great. Factor in a massive jump in velocity that has me worried about a Schwellenbach-type injury, and I have some worries, but at some point in doing rankings, you just can't ignore how dominant a pitcher looks on the mound.

Trevor Rogers came out of nowhere in 2026 to put up a top-25 season in a little over 100 innings. It was so out of the blue that it may seem like a fluke, but we also have to remember that he showed this level of skill back in 2021. There's an old fantasy baseball addage thatonce you show a skill, you own that skill. Yet, Rogers also showed new skills. He rode a new sinker and a plus changeup to that tremendous season. Should we believe that he can do it again? I think it’s MOSTLY true, but I’m not banking on another top 25 season with such mediocre fastballs.

I wrote about Tatsuya Imai earlier this offseason in our Player News blurbs, which you can check out here, but I said: “The 27-year-old Imai is coming off a strong season that saw him post a 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 178/45 K/BB ratio in 163 2/3 innings. It was his second straight season with 163 or more innings, and he continued to show that he could return his mid-to-high 90s velocity on his fastball over a full year. He also posted a career-high strikeout rate that was better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s mark in his final NPB season. In addition to his high strikeout totals, Imai has proven to be a solid groundball pitcher with a six-pitch mix that includes a slider, changeup, splitter, curveball, and sinker.” MARCH UPDATE: Now that we've seen him in spring training, we've seen an elite splitter, a pretty strong reverse slider that seems to get plenty of whiffs, and a four-seam fastball that has elite velocity but is maybe just average based on shape and extension. That's still a profile I can get behind.

We saw the home run issues come into play for Shota Imanaga again in 2025, and he also battled a hamstring injury; however, I think the talent is there, and the Cubs should be a good team with a solid defense behind him. He doesn't walk batters, which will keep his WHIP down, but his fastball velocity dipped last year, and I just don't think he's anywhere near the fantasy ace that we previously thought he was. MARCH UPDATE: However, his velocity is back up this spring, which is nice to see. There are some questions about whether he can hold it over the course of the season, but he looks good right now.

I think the hype for Jacob Misiorowski has outpaced the results a little bit. Yes, he’s tons of fun, but there were valid concerns about his command coming into the season, and he posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 66 MLB innings. The strikeouts are awesome, but the Brewers may be cautious with his innings, and the WHIP may always hurt you a bit. It would be nice if Misiorowski had shown a legit whiff pitch for righties, but the slider performed fine, and we know the four-seamer can miss bats. His four-seamer had just a 10.5% SwStr% to righties, but he uses it over 33% of the time in two-strike counts, and it posted an above-average putaway rate. He also has just one fastball variation and league-average command of that pitch, so I think there are more question marks here than people are acknowledging.

Yes, I’m this high on Nick Lodolo. He just had the best season of his career. His curve is a tremendous swing-and-miss pitch, and he features multiple fastball variations for all hitters. His 13.8% SwStr% fits right in line with a typical top 25 starting pitcher, and he has dynamic weapons in a curveball that registered a 19.4% SwStr% to lefties and 20.7% SwStr% to righties and a changeup that also had a 15.5% SwStr% to righties. His hit suppression has always been strong, and the command has improved over the last few seasons. Health and his home park are the only big bugaboos, but he is exactly the type of SWATCH (Southpaw With a Tight Changeup) that Nick Pollack and I discussed on the "On the Corner" podcast has proven to be a real recipe for success.

Robbie Ray added a changeup and had some stretches of solid production that pushed for top 25 value, but he also has below-average fastball velocity and command, which I don’t love. He still only throws one fastball type, and the swing-and-miss wasn’t really present for him this past season, but we have seen it in spades in the past. There are plenty of question marks with Ray, which is why he's in this tier, but we also know he has the stuff and team context to be a foundation of your fantasy rotation. Drafting him is all about your risk tolerance.

I’m a sucker for Edward Cabrera. He made the change to use his sinker as his primary fastball in 2025, and it led to massive improvements in command. That allowed him to get ahead in the zone more and set up his plus slider and curve, both of which had SwStr% over 18.5%. Yes, there may always be an injury or innings cloud over Cabrera, but we have finally seen him start to make the changes we wanted to see from him, and I think a new organization is only going to push those changes further. Plus, the Cubs have a much better infield defense than the Marlins, so I think we have the makings of a potential top-25 arm here if we get a full season of health (which we probably won't, hence the ranking).

We know Blake Snell is never a good bet for a full season, and we know that he is going to start the year on the IL because his arm was "exhausted" from the postseason run, and he was delayed in starting his offseason program. I know he may still get to 130 innings, but that's assuming he has no setbacks or injuries once he returns at the end of April or early in May. It's really hard to draft somebody inside the top 20 or 25 starters if they're not going to be ready to start the season, and we also know they're highly unlikely to throw more than 130 innings. However, if we get down into this range, especially in a league with IL spots, then I can be convinced to take on the headache.

Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

These five arms are all high-upside young pitchers. They could end the season as locked-in aces, or they could also struggle with the ups and downs over the course of a full season. However, I don't think any of them will be bad.

People are so ready to write off Bubba Chandler because the Pirates keep him in the minors forever, and then he got frustrated and started over-throwing or trying to prove himself, which led to command issues he hadn’t had before and didn’t show in the majors. Then he got to the majors and looked like one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. I think he's somewhere in between. His fastball is elite. Like, elite elite. His changeup misses plenty of bats against lefties. He just needs his slider to become a more consistent offering, and then he'd be a fringe top-20 starting pitcher.

Nolan McLean was another rookie I covered in my FPAZ presentation. There are a few things I really liked about him, like his deep pitch mix, his velocity, his sinker command, and the growth he showed in 2025. I didn’t love that his sweeper, which was his main secondary pitch to righties, posted just a 5.8% swinging strike rate. That’s not gonna cut it over a long season, so he’ll need to either tweak that pitch or his approach because he's simply not going to get enough strikeouts against righties if that pitch is not a consistent two-strike weapon. He also has allowed a lot of hard contact to righties, and we saw that in the World Baseball Classic as well. I think McLean is talented; I just think there are still some kinks to iron out.

The news that Blake Snell is likely going to be delayed to start the season means that Emmet Sheehan has the inside track to open the season in the Dodgers' rotation. I felt like he was a good bet to beat out Roki Sasaki anyway, but now he has another level of cushion. Who knows how long he'll stay in the rotation, but that was the argument against Dustin May heading into last year, and the Dodgers were so banged up that May kept starting. He wasn't particularly good, but I think Sheehan is a far better pitcher. MARCH UPDATE: I spoke to Sheehan in Arizona and specifically talked about his arm angle changing last year, which led to a lot of his success. I'm a believer.

Cade Horton had a tremendous year and showed a deeper arsenal than we originally thought with a much-improved changeup. However, he also had a 20% strikeout rate and gave up a lot of contact. It’s not hard contact, and the defense behind him is good, so that works, and he seems like a pitcher who will eat 180 innings per season, but without the potential for more strikeouts, it's hard for me to rank him higher than this. MARCH UPDATE: Horton has come out throwing harder in spring and looks great. He's 24 years old, so I'm not sure why we don't discuss him like one of those young pitchers who has a real chance to grow and evolve. He was a strikeout arm in college. I'm buying all the stock.

Gavin Williams was “my dude” in 2025, and it didn’t work for most of the year. However, he was tremendous in the second half, so maybe it’s starting to come together. I think he’s more of a “thrower” than a pitcher, so he can’t always execute as well as he wants, and that will likely limit his overall fantasy upside. However, I love the fact that he's adding multiple fastball variations, which helps his four-seamer up in the zone pop more. If I could trust him, he'd be up by Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski and those other high upside arms.

Sonny Gray is now with the Boston Red Sox, which gives him a pretty big team context upgrade. I also trust Andrew Bailey and the Red Sox pitching staff to optimize Gray's pitch mix, which is still plenty deep and full of pitches that he can locate well. He can also be a workhorse that they need, so the innings should be there. At this point, we know what we’re getting from Gray, and it’s usually pretty solid, but he will give up hard contact, and his home park will turn some of those into home runs.

It will be an even year, so Aaron Nola will be great. Kidding. Kind of. Nola battled injuries throughout the season, but he didn’t showcase a velocity dip or much of a change in his elite curveball. I expect a bounce-back season for Nola, to a certain extent, but I think he is more of a fantasy SP3-4 at this point in his career. I covered Nola in my bounceback starting pitchers article, and I love how he looks this spring. Plus, last year was better than we thought. Nola had a 6.01 ERA but a 3.81 SIERA and 3.71 xFIP. That’s a pretty stark difference that should make you want to dig in more. His 17% K-BB% was well above league average, as was his 105.3 Stuff+ grade and his 108 Pitching+ grade. His 11.8% SwStr% was just above league average, and his 30% CSW was better than what he produced in 2024. His .316 BABIP was the highest he’s allowed since 111 innings in 2016, his 62.4% LOB% was the lowest since that same 2016 season, and his HR/FB% was not only well above league average but the highest mark he’s had since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Nola is not above blame, but his velocity is back up this spring, and I think we're in for a good season.

Kevin Gausman is all about his splitter. We know that. He had it for much of the year last season, but he also lost it at times. He has yet to add another fastball variation (maybe he can’t), and so he will continue to be a slightly volatile arm that will be hard to use when the splitter is off. That will always cause me to be a little cautious when I rank him.

All of these guys either claim to be healthy now or will be healthy in April, but I think there is enough of a cloud of doubt hovering over them to keep them in this range.

Zack Wheeler's situation is confusing to me. In August, he was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome and a shoulder blood clot. He had surgery at the beginning of September and was given an eight-month timeline for return at the time, which would have put him on track for May, but the team had also indicated they would be cautious with him. Now we're hearing that Wheeler has begun throwing from 75 feet and could be available “near the start of the season.” The issue here is that "near the start of the season" apparently means anytime between Opening Day and late May. That's a two-month window where we might see Wheeler back on the mound, and then we have to acknowledge that he's coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which has been tricky for many starting pitchers to do. MARCH UPDATE: Wheeler should be back by the end of April, so I moved him up. However, he had a major surgery and we don't have many success stories after Thoracic Outlet surgery, so I'm not confident about what version of Wheeler we get.

Chase Burns’ strikeout upside is real, which we know because he posted 10+ strikeouts across four starts at one point in the season. He also had a 4.24 ERA over that stretch as well. He has a narrow pitch mix, gives up more contact on his fastball than you’d think at his velocity, and had a forearm strain last summer. Oh, and his home park sucks. However, the slider is a wipeout pitch, and I think there could be a step forward in 2026 given how quickly he progresses through the minors. I think those strikeouts will outweigh some of the negatives, which is why I have him here, but I have some concerns. MARCH UPDATE: The Reds are using six starters to begin the season, and I think a lot of that has to do with concerns about Burns. They claim the concerns are "cosmetic" and that it's more about how his "arm is moving," but given his forearm injury last year and now his interrupted ramp-up process, I think there is enough to be concerned about here.

Shane McClanahan missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was expected to start the 2025 season in the Rays' rotation. However, a nerve issue in his final start of spring training led to him being sidelined all year. McClanahan has already been throwing, and Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander also said that McClanahan has "a day in the rotation," which means that fantasy managers should expect him to be ready to start the season and also pitch once every five days for Tampa Bay. McClanahan has a career 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate. He is an elite starting pitcher. If we assume that he will be rusty and on a pitch count early on in the season, then McClanahan could be just a decent starter early on and then settle back into a solid arm. To me, that makes him a good target if you're outside the top 40 starting pitchers and already have a strong foundation for your rotation. MARC HPDATE: McClanahan is healthy! Kind of. His velocity is not back as of yet. His changeup still looks good, but the velocity gap is crucial for that pitch to succeed. I don't think McClanahan will have a Strider-like collapse this season because his pitch mix is deeper, but I don't love that his fastball still isn't back to where it was.

Brandon Woodruff was supposed to return from shoulder capsule surgery midway through the 2025 season, but then he was hit by a line drive in the elbow while pitching in the minors, and then sprained his ankle on the same rehab process. When he did come back, he looked good, posting a 3.20 ERA in 64.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP and a 32% strikeout rate. A decent amount of that success, in my opinion, was because of his new cutter, which gives him three fastball variations that attack hitters from similar release points, but with different movement profiles. That can be devastatingly confusing for a hitter. The downside is that Woodruff suffered a lat strain in September and missed the postseason. The team claims that the strain is not connected to the previous shoulder surgery, but having so many injuries to the shoulder area is concerning. I'm willing to bet that Woodruff will be good again in 2026. I'm just not willing to count on him for more than around 120-130 innings. MARCH UPDATE: There are times when the Brewers say Woodruff will be ready by Opening Day and times when they don't. I think he's mostly healthy, but I just wish the situation were a bit clearer. It makes me a little uncomfortable, given all of his injuries.

Carlos Rodon claims that he's aiming to be ready at the start of the season, but it's a little hard to trust that. Also, remember that Rodón also had left shoulder surgery in 2017, Tommy John surgery in 2019, and a forearm strain in 2023, so there are a lot of shoulder/elbow injuries in his past that we can't ignore. I like Rodón, and I had him ranked inside my top 25 before the elbow surgery. Now, I just can't see him pitching 175 innings, as he did in three of the last four years. That's going to cut into a lot of his productivity, but I could see drafting him outside of the top 40 starting pitchers, especially if I had an IL spot for him to begin the year. MARCH UPDATE: Rodon will be back by the end of April. In his career, he has had less upside than Zack Wheeler, but his surgery was just to remove bone chips from his elbow, which is a far less invasive procedure than what Wheeler had. If they're both returning around the same time, why is Wheeler being drafted so much earlier?

I was never a big fan of Andrew Abbott, but some pitch mix changes led to a little more swing-and-miss in his game in 2025. He leaned into his curveball more and added in a cutter, which helped alleviate some of the pressure on his four-seam fastball. He also just got better as a pitcher. His changeup took a step forward and will always perform well against righties. He’s kind of like Trevor Rogers in that way. I just wish he had a better home park.

Could MacKenzie Gore, on a new team with veterans like Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, help him unlock the consistency that has been evading him? His new slider looked great early on, but we continue to see Gore struggle to maintain a level for a full season. But, hey, if you draft him here and then cut him over the summer when he starts to pitch poorly, you’ve probably returned good value on the draft slot. If you want even more detailed thoughts, I recorded a video on the Gore trade this offseason. MARCH UPDATE: Gore is still having issues commanding his fastball. I know the Rangers will have him rely on it less, but I worry he will always be a pitcher who hurts your WHIP.

Kodai Senga has not been the same guy we saw in his rookie season, but I don't think he's as far off as many believed. He still has that solid cutter to act as his high strike rate fastball and an elite Ghost Fork for swings and misses. The execution of his pitches wasn't as precise as we saw in 2023, but Senga was so good early in the 2025 season that he posted a 3.02 ERA on the year despite utterly melting down after he returned from a hamstring injury. That's the other component: injuries have played a huge role in his struggles over the last two years. However, he's not dealing with arm issues, and I still believe in the arsenal, so I’m willing to buy back in if the price dips this far. MARCH UPDATE: Senga may be my most rostered pitcher right now. He's throwing 99 mph this spring, and I'm fully back in.

Kris Bubic was really good in 2025, but suffered a rotator cuff strain in July and missed the remainder of the season. He has also dealt with shoulder injuries and Tommy John surgery in previous years, which is why he has never pitched more than 130 innings in an MLB season. I think Bubic is a talented pitcher, and I think he'll be in the Royals' rotation to start the season, but I'm not banking on more than 130 innings from him so there will have to be a discount if I'm going to take him, and I'd prefer he not be one of the top four starting pitchers on my team.

Shane Baz is another pitcher who will benefit from no longer playing in a minor league park, and is another pitcher I discussed in my FPAZ presentation. His inability to truly replace his former slider has led to some swing-and-miss concerns against righties, but he has never really allowed hard contact, and the new cutter is a solid enough pitch against righties that the floor feels a bit safe here. His 12.7% SwStr% and 15.8% K-BB% in 2025 were solid, and his 3.95 SIERA and 3.88 xFIP suggest he pitched better than his results last season. His cutter this spring has also added about three inches of drop and cut, but not lost any velocity. Considering it was a new pitch for him last season, he could take another step forward with it this year, which would be a huge development for his arsenal. Last year, his four-seam fastball command wasn’t great, but the velocity is there, and the shape is fine. He also seems to have added a sinker this offseason, which would take a little bit of the pressure off the four-seamer. I like the improvements and the team context, so I'm a fan of Baz this year.

I recorded a video with James Schiano covering our thoughts on Ranger Suarez signing with the Red Sox,so you should check that out. Yes, his velocity has been going down, but his command is elite, and he's a groundball pitcher, which will help in Boston. He has spent his whole career pitching in a hitter's park, so that shouldn't worry anybody. We know who he is at this point.

These are all pitchers who have a certain level of safety that you can rely on, but don't have the upside of the previous safety tier or the higher-risk guys in the tiers above them.

Luis Castillo is who he is at this point in his career. He's no longer a high strikeout upside pitcher, and his stuff is getting hit harder with each year. However, he throws plenty of innings, pitches in a great home park, and has seemingly always been a top 50 starting pitcher.

I covered Zac Gallen in my article on bounce-back pitchers. He's now had three straight seasons of allowing an Ideal Contact Rate over 40%. His swinging strike rate has declined for three years in a row, down to 10.6% last year. His CSW has also declined for three years in a row. His ERA has increased for three years in a row, and he's posted a 1.26 WHIP in each of his last two seasons. That's the bad news. Gallen’s 4.23 SIERA and 4.11 xFIP suggest he deserved better last season. He had just a 67.6% LOB% and an inflated 14.5% HR/FB rate. His SwStr% was still below average, but his K-BB% was essentially league average, as was his Pitching+, which suggests his overall control was fine. The issue is command versus control. Gallen was in the zone far more often in 2025 and fell behind in the count far less; however, he also allowed far more early contact and missed far fewer bats once he got ahead, which suggests that he wasn’t really hitting his spots as much as he was simply throwing strikes. Data suggests that this has to do with his fastball locations, and so I think his issues are more based on that than any decline in stuff. I'm willing to buy back in at a discount.

Matthew Boyd is the epitome of a SWATCH. He's a lower-velocity pitcher with good command of a deep arsenal and a changeup that eats up right-handed hitters. I’m not sure how trustworthy he will be year-over-year, so I'm not going to bet on a repeat of 2025, but that approach led to tons of success last year, and I could see it being the case more often than not in 2026, especially since he has a great defense behind him.

Ryne Nelson is finally going to start the year in Arizona’s rotation this year, so we can avoid that headache again. Hopefully. However, he remains an elite fastball pitcher with a limited arsenal of secondaries. I do like his fastball, and his combination of elite vertical movement and low arm angle makes it really hard to hit. Having that as a foundation is great. But we've now seen two full seasons where he can seem to land on a secondary he trusts or one that is effective enough to be relied on. Unless he locks in on one of them, it's hard to see much growth for him, but what we have seen has been solid so far.

Tanner Bibee’s had a really bad season thanks to poor secondaries that failed to cover for his average fastball. However, I like the idea of him going to multiple fastball variations to cover up for that weak four-seamer, and we have seen his secondaries perform well in the past. He had an above-average K-BB% last season and a not great but not awful 4.24 ERA. I think his secondaries are good enough to keep him as a high-3.00 or low-4.00 ERA type arm with plenty of innings on a decent team. That still has some value.

All of these pitchers will be on the IL to start the season, but all of them could return and be studs from May or June on. They are risks, but, depending on my build, they might be risks I'm willing to take.

Gerrit Cole is expected to return in late May, but I am considerably lower on Cole than many of my Rotoworld colleagues. Cole suffered from right elbow inflammation and a nerve issue in 2024. He was able to pitch most of the year, but then he had elbow soreness in March and underwent Tommy John surgery. Those two issues back-to-back for a pitcher who's 35 years old doesn't make me feel great. When he returns, we have to acknowledge that he wasn't even the same strikeout pitcher before the injury. In 2023, he had a 27% strikeout rate, and that fell to 25.4% in 2024. He's no longer a 30% strikeout rate arm, and we know that he's not going to throw more than about 110-130 innings. From 2021 on, Cole has had a 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 686 innings, so if we're assuming some post-injury regression, is he a 3.40-3.50 ERA pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate and a good WHIP? That's certainly useful, but it's not a fantasy ace. Add the time missed to that, and I can't take him inside my top 40 pitchers in drafts.

Justin Steele is another pitcher with an inexact timeline for return. He had internal brace surgery on his elbow back in the middle of April, which should mean he can return to the mound early in the season. The last we heard, he was aiming for a return in June, but that's not a given at this point. So we have a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 24.4% strikeout rate in 450 innings since the start of 2022, potentially returning in June. Even if we bake in some regression there, that's a 3.50 ERA type of arm with just under one strikeout per inning pitching for one of the better teams in the NL. You're not rushing to draft that arm early in drafts, but it's a pretty nice addition to your rotation later in drafts if you're in a league with IL spots.

Jared Jones had an internal brace procedure in May and began throwing in December. We know thathe started throwing bullpens in January and that he "is targeting a timeline of sometime between March and May." There has also been a report that Jones could be used out of the bullpen to start the season, if the Pirates wanted to ramp him up without having him pitch in the minors. Jones was pretty good as a rookie in 2024, posting a 4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts in 121 innings. He is predominantly a two-pitch pitcher, and we saw with Spencer Strider last year how hard it can be for pitchers with just two main pitches to return from a procedure like this. Precise command is even more important if you have a limited arsenal, so that could make this a tight needle to thread for Jones. MARCH UPDATE: It now seems like late-May is the earliest that Jones would return, but, more likely, sometime in June.

Bryce Miller is coming off elbow surgery to remove bone spurs and has yet to establish consistent success at the big league level. His splitter is a solid pitch, but it's really more of a changeup. He locates it in the zone way more often than a normal splitter and has just league-average swinging strike rates (SwStr%) on it. He does use it often in two-strike counts, but the PutAway Rate on it is below league-average, so it's not really a pitch he gets punchouts on. He has also tinkered with a curve, slider, and sweeper to go along with his sinker. None of those pitches has really popped as an above-average secondary, so this is where the path to improvement lies with Miller. I think he’s good, and I like his home park, but I don’t quite trust him yet. MARCH UPDATE: Miller has been delayed with both elbow and oblique issues this spring and will start the season on the IL. It's hard to trust him, but if you get to a point late in your draft where you want to take an IL stash, I get it.

Back in November, I had Shane Bieber around my top 20, but then we got a report that he was dealing with forearm soreness at the end of the season. Couple that with his surprise decision to pick up his $18 million player option in Toronto, and I can't help but feel like Bieber also knows his arm is a ticking time bomb. On top of that, Bieber had just a 13% swinging strike rate overall in 2025 and features below-average velocity on his fastball. The introduction of the cutter has been great for him, but it has limited his strikeout upside a bit, so when paired with his injury risk, I had to move him down. MARCH UPDATE: He hasn't pitched at all in spring training, and I'm just terrified that his arm is not going to hold up.

I can’t quite figure out Trey Yesavage, and I need to be honest about that right now. He’s like Kevin Gausman, except he has a slider that can help him when his splitter abandons him. However, that slider didn't really miss bats in a small sample size last year and got hit really hard, so can we trust it? Yesavage also doesn’t have near the track record of success that Gausman does. His four-seamer has average velocity and has proven to be hittable with fairly average swing-and-miss metrics. I don’t love that and think he will be drafted too high based on his postseason performance. MARCH UPDATE: The Blue Jays are being very intentional about slow-playing his build-up. Yesavage is only up to 35 pitches, and he has not thrown in an MLB spring training game. The Blue Jays have said he's going to open the season on the IL, but I don't think this is a new injury. This is just his arm not responding the way they want after such a large workload. Is that good news? No, but you shouldn't have been expecting him to be a factor before May anyway. However, I worry that the innings/workload concerns will persist throughout the season.

This whole tier is full of players who have been the proverbial rake in our face once or twice before, but I think there is enough there to remain somewhat intrigued.

Yes, I’m this low on Spencer Strider. He returned from his second Tommy John surgery with a much worse fastball and poor command. Strider's fastball was slower, lost vertical movement, and also lost its flat attack angle, which led to a 7% decline in swinging strike rate. It did not get better as the season went on, and he doesn’t have a deep enough arsenal to survive a step back with his fastball like that. Could his fastball regain some of its juice? Of course, but it's a longer road back than many believe. MARCH UPDATE: Strider's velocity has been somewhat back and his movement has been somewhat back, but he still doesn't look like the same guy.

Ryan Weathers was traded to the Yankees in the offseason, and I recorded a video with my full thoughts on the trade. Weathers was a "sleeper" in spring training due to a bump in velocity and some pitch mix tweaks, but he was limited to 38.1 innings and posted a 3.99 ERA with 22.3% strikeout rate that was also his career high. Those are not great numbers. However, Weathers does have the raw tools for a much better season. If the velocity holds and he throws his sinker as often as he claims he will, that should help him versus left-handed hitters, and then his changeup and slider can be good weapons for righties. Of course, the biggest obstacle to success for him will be health.

It was a tough season for Zach Eflin, who suffered a lat strain in April and then landed on the IL again in June with a lower back injury. He returned after a month but only pitched in two games before landing on the IL with a back injury again. He would eventually undergo a lumbar microdiscectomy to fix a nerve-related disc issue in his back over the offseason. On one hand, he wasn't dealing with an arm issue. On the other hand, back injuries for a 32-year-old are a bit concerning. Still, it was a disc issue that was corrected via surgery, so I don't imagine he'll have many residual issues in 2026. Over his two healthy seasons in the AL East, he's essentially been a 3.50 ERA pitcher with a 22% strikeout rate and 1.10 WHIP. That will play in most formats, and that's what I expect him to get back to in 2026. MARCH UPDATE: Eflin's is one of the best values in fantasy drafts, which I discussed in my late-round value article.

I'm pretty out on Grayson Rodriguez, which is why he's ranked down here. In March, he was placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation, and it seemed like surgery would be on the table. However, the right-hander was certain he would return, only to suffer a lat strain in April that put him on the IL. Then, in July, he re-injured his right elbow and eventually had debridement surgery in August to clean up bone spurs in his elbow. The concern for me, aside from the elbow issues, is that Rodriguez has now been on the IL three separate times with right lat strains since 2022. When you add in the fact that the Orioles traded him to the Angels this offseason, when his value was near its lowest, that's not a glowing endorsement for what the organization thought of his health. He's now on a worse team with a worse track record of developing pitching, so this is not a situation I want any part of.

All of these guys are pitchers with upside that I can dream on, but they either don't have a secure spot in the rotation or they have yet to show any consistency at the MLB level to fall back on. As a result, I'd rather have all of them as my SP6 or later, but there are plenty of guys I'm targeting in my drafts.

Mike Burrows is another pitcher with a pretty mediocre fastball but a decent array of secondaries that I think could take a step forward if his new team can optimize his mix for success. He's in a better spot now, and the Astros have made a few quick changes. He's throwing his sinker far more to righties than he did with the Pirates, and that will keep the pressure off of his four-seamer. The Astros also tweaked his slider to make it harder, which has seemingly increased the swing and miss this spring. However, he's still a pitcher with solid secondaries who needs to hid his poor fastballs, and that always leaves the door open for poor starts.

Braxton Ashcraft had a 24% strikeout rate last year, with a 16.1% K-BB% and a 13.2% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%). That’s pretty solid. His slider is a strong swing-and-miss pitch to righties. He also has a curve that is a hard-diving 84 mph offering that he can command in the zone or bury underneath it. His four-seam fastball is below-average. It sits at 97 mph, but Ashcraft has below-average extension on it, just average vertical movement, and it’s relatively flat, but he keeps it low in the zone more than you’d like. He can throw it for strikes, but it gets hit hard by both righties and lefties. I think Ashcraft will be solid, but I don’t have tons of confidence that he has the strikeout upside to vault up these rankings.

Noah Cameron is the epitome of a SWATCH. He has great command, a deep enough arsenal of pitches, and a really good changeup. That's going to keep him valuable, especially since he's a young pitcher who will grow and adapt to the MLB level. However, I also think his ratios from last season were a bit lucky, so I'm not expecting a replication of that season.

I've been a fan of Joey Cantillo's for a little bit, and I spoke with him in August of last season about how his time in the bullpen shaped his ability as a starting pitcher. Cantillo rejoined the rotation at the end of the year and, in his final 10 starts of the season, posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 54/22 K/BB ratio in 54.1 innings. He had a really strong 32.5% CSW and 13% SwStr% over that stretch as well. The next step forward for Cantillo, which we started to see down the stretch, is to regain some of the lost velocity on his four-seam fastball and also get more comfortable with his curve to give him a third pitch he can trust. That could lead to a breakout season for the 26-year-old. In fact, I may actually need to move him up.

Landen Roupp was pitching well for the Giants before a comebacker off his knee ended his season. He made some pitch mix tweaks in the offseason that helped him win a spot in the Giants' rotation, and his sinker and kick-change are a nice pairing with a curveball that crushed right-handed hitters. I don't love that Luis Arraez is playing second base behind him, but we also see new pitches perform better in their second season, so Roupp could have another level in him.

There is a lot to like about Jack Leiter. He has a good four-seam fastball with plus velocity, good extension, and a great height-adjusted vertical attack angle, which allows it to miss plenty of bats at the top of the zone. He added a sinker for strikes that allowed the fastball to play up, and his changeup produced whiffs to both righties and lefties. However, he only had a 23% strikeout rate last year because both his slider and curve did not perform well against righties in two-strike counts. The sinker led to some blister issues, and he still has some command issues with his four-seamer. He's only 25 years old, and we could easily see growth this season, but we'll need to see his secondaries take a step forward in 2026.

Hey, Andrew Painter is another pitcher from that post-hype article. He returned from Tommy John surgery in 2025 but had a 5.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 23.4% strikeout rate in 106.2 innings at Triple-A. Not being on the mound for two years and then pitching poorly when he did return has a lot of people questioning just what kind of upside Painter has. However, he still showed off that big fastball that can touch triple digits while pairing that with a plus changeup, a hard slider, and a slower curve. The command of everything was a little off in 2025, but the movement profiles were similar enough to what we saw before the surgery, and his arm held up to over 100 innings of professional baseball again. Those are all positive signs. MARCH UPDATE: The fastball remains a work in progress, and I think it may just be an average pitch, but the secondaries have looked pretty solid.

I covered my interest in Reid Detmers in another article on post-hype pitchers and my article on late-round starting pitchers. As a reliever for the Angels last season, Detmers posted a 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate. He was even better when you factor in a brief adjustment period to his new role. From June 1st on, Detmers posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 33% strikeout rate. In that stretch, we saw him change his pitch mix and approach in ways that I think he can carry over into the rotation.

I guess Matthew Liberatore is the Cardinals' ace this season. We saw flashes from him in 2025, and he ended the season with three good starts in his last four. We saw his four-seam velocity rise and fall during the year, so that will be crucial for him in 2026. When he can sit 94-95 mph and then keep that changeup low, he can be effective against righties with a curve that works to all hitters. He's not as safe a ratio arm as some of the other pitchers in this tier, but he's going to get a long leash with some workable ratios. MARCH UPDATE: Liberatore has his velocity back from the middle of last season, and he's tweaked his change to be a kick-changeup that looks really good this spring. I think there may be some upside here.

Mick Abel has looked electric this spring. I was a fan of his in Philadelphia after he did a lot of work with a mental skills coach before last season. I think it unlocked a strong approach and demeanor on the mound. His fastballs are great, and his breaking stuff flashes upside. He needs to be more consistent with the breaking balls and also needs to have a locked-in spot in the rotation, but if I knew that Minnesota was going to let him start at the beginning of the season, I'd have him up by Shane Baz and Kodai Senga.

Kyle Harrison seemed to unlock a changeup that worked for him over the summer. Apparently, the Red Sox worked extensively with him on it, but he didn't find a grip he liked. He spent the offseason with some former Giants teammates and found a changeup grip that felt comfortable, and the pitch has looked electric this spring. I still need to see more of that cutter that the Red Sox added before they traded him, and we also need to see some health because he just picked up a blister issue. However, with all the injuries in the Milwaukee rotation, I think Harrison has a gig.

Cody Ponce is locked into this Blue Jays rotation with all the injuries they have. He is also another pitcher who has come back from Korea throwing two mph harder. He also added a kick-changeup, which has been a real weapon for him against left-handed hitters. I have some concerns about his ability to get consistent strikeouts against righties, and he has yet to really succeed in the Major Leagues, so there are some questions, but I'm willing to take a gamble.

Cade Cavalli has rocketed up rankings this spring after he looked electric in spring and is now the Opening Day starter for the Nationals. But here's the thing, electric pure stuff was never an issue for Cavalli. He has a 1.51 WHIP in 53 career MLB innings. His four-seam command is right around average, and he has had shoulder inflammation, Tommy John surgery, and "dead arm" symptoms all since the end of the 2022 season. When you combine that with him pitching for a bad team that is unlikely to give him many wins, there are a few red flags here.

Will Warren had a strong stretch over the summer, but his first full MLB season was more of a rollercoaster. His four-seam fastball missed plenty of bats against righties, as did his sweeper, thanks to a sinker he also mixed in. The approach to lefties is where we get into some issues. His four-seamer performed far worse against lefties, the sweeper is not a great pitch to opposite-handed hitters, and his changeup is also not a plus whiff pitch to lefties, even though it did perform pretty well in two-strike counts. You can see the path forward here, but I need to see improvement in his plan against lefties, and he could also be at risk of losing his rotation spot if he's not performing well enough when Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole are back.

Tyler Mahle had a 2.18 ERA in 87 innings last year. I understand that a lot of that is flukey, but he's also a career 4.07 ERA pitcher in 735 innings. His fastball velocity is not what it was at his peak and probably won't be, but he leaned into the cutter more last season, and his splitter is a good pitch. Mahle has morphed from an exciting upside arm into a low-ceiling veteran with a solid four-pitch mix, but he's in the right ballpark to make that skillset work.

Brayan Bello changed his entire approach in 2025, adding a cutter and attacking the strike zone with three fastball variations. That led to an impressive 3.35 ERA but just an 18% strikeout rate. The right-hander is now a sinker/sweeper arm who will induce grounders with that sinker, but the strikeouts won't come unless that sweeper takes a step forward, which he hasn't been able to do for years. The new approach has given him a safer floor, but unless his sweeper or his changeup finds a level we didn't see in 2025, then Bello is really just a ratio play.

Shane Smith was pretty good in his first year as a big league starter, posting a 3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 23.5% strikeout rate in 146.1 innings. His raw stuff isn't overly impressive, but he kept hitters off the barrel with multiple fastball variations, and then brought three secondaries to the table as well. The curveball and changeup both posted above-average SwStr%, but the command of all of his secondaries leaves a lot to be desired. I think we should see a step forward in Smith's refinement in 2026, but I don't like his fastballs or his team context

Seth Lugo is another veteran who is what he is at this point. His production plummeted after he signed his extension last year, but I think we're going to continue to get boring but solid production on a good team.

Is Jack Flaherty on the downswing? Perhaps. His fastball velocity is down, and his breaking balls didn’t miss as many bats as they used to. However, he still got plenty of strikeouts, and that was with a weird approach of low fastballs for called strikes to set up his breaking balls low. Flaherty's fastball is too flat to work low in the zone, which is why he gave up so much hard contact. There is a path for him to become a strong fantasy asset again, but changes will need to be made.

Max Scherzer has never really pitched poorly when he’s been on the mound, so at this point, I’m expecting about 80 to 90 innings of solid work from him this season. He's healthy right now and in the rotation on a good team, so I'm willing to take a shot in deeper formats.

Joe Musgrove got hurt in the NL Wild Card round back in 2024 and then had Tommy John surgery. He started throwing bullpens in August and is apparently on track to return at the start of the season and will not be on any kind of strict innings limit in San Diego, which is good news. However, part of Musgrove's value before injury was his floor. Since the start of the 2021 season, Musgrove has pitched to a 3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 25.5% strikeout rate in 559.1 innings. That's helping you in most formats. Given that he didn't pitch at all last season and is coming off Tommy John surgery at 33 years old, we have to expect regression for Musgrove. Perhaps he's closer to his 3.73 career ERA and more of a 23% strikeout rate arm. If you wanted to take a gamble on that late in 15-team leagues, I can still see the value in his floor, but his profile, coming off an injury, is not as alluring in shallow formats. MARCH UPDATE: Musgrove is going to start the season on the IL, and the Padres are clearly going to be cautious with his innings in the early going. That's not ideal for fantasy.

Merrill Kelly is rock solid. He lacks any real upside for fantasy baseball, so this isn't a pick I'm targeting in 12-team leagues, but he's fine near the end of your draft. He seems to be a good bet for innings, will be on a good team, and has a deep arsenal of pitches that allows him to attack both righties and lefties with success. There's nothing wrong with that kind of security for the end of your rotation. It's just not sexy. MARCH UPDATE: Kelly will start the season on the IL with a back injury, and so he's in a situation as a low-upside starting pitcher who is currently hurt. That's not a situation I usually like.

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Reynaldo Lopez made one start in 2025 before landing on the IL with right shoulder inflammation and eventually undergoing surgery. On a positive note, the surgery revealed no structural damage, only inflammation, and Lopez was back throwing in July. However, by the end of August, it was clear that the Braves were not going to be contenders, so the team decided to shut Lopez down. Given that Lopez has battled injuries for much of his career and has thrown over 66 innings just once since 2019, it's fair to question his health.

Who really knows what to expect from Ryan Weiss. His sweeper gives him strikeout upside, and his fastball is up about two mph after his time in the KBO. He should get plenty of innings on the Astros, and I trust their pitching development, so I can see this working out. I just can't tell you with any certainty how his full arsenal will play up after MLB hitters get to see him a few times.

Jose Soriano has a curve that gets tons of whiffs against righties and a splitter that can carve up lefties. He also leaned more into the sinker last year, and that pitch isn't electric, but it doesn't get hit overly hard. Still, the lack of a good four-seam fastball or another solid secondary pitch means that Soriano has a narrow pathway to success. He has to get ahead with the sinker and then either go to the change or split; there isn't much else that he's shown he can do right now, so that makes it a bit hard to trust him.

Luis Gil remains a poor command pitcher who may not even have a guaranteed spot in the Yankees' rotation. When the Yankees are healthy, they will have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Max Fried, Cam Schilttler, Ryan Weathers, and Will Warren. I prefer them all to Gil, and I probably prefer a few of the Yankees' pitching prospects over Gil if/when they debut near the end of the season. I just don't see a future for Gil in this rotation.

David Peterson made some strides last year by adding depth on his slider and trying to backfoot it more against righties. He has good enough velocity on his fastball and elite extension, so I have no concerns against lefties. I'd love to see his changeup be a bit more consistent to make me believe that he's a pitcher you can hold on your roster all year, but he and Manaea are the only lefties that the Mets have, so I think Peterson gets every chance to stay in this rotation.

Now that we're outside of the top 100 starting pitchers, I'm not going to provide write-ups on each one. These are all pitchers who I believe will start the season with a starting job. Their time in the rotation may be short, but they have a job now, and that matters.

Roki Sasaki has some flaws. He's really just a two-pitch pitcher with a four-seam fastball that didn't miss bats last year and a splitter that he can't throw for strikes, so he relies on swings outside of the zone. I know he's talking about adding in new pitches, but we saw him try a cutter last year, and it just wasn't good. I still think he may wind up as an elite closer, but he has an inside track to win a rotation spot now that Blake Snell is unlikely to start the year on time. MARCH UPDATE: Sasaki has not really looked good this spring. His fastball is still far too hittable, and no consistent third pitch has emerged. I get it if you want to take a flyer, but just acknowledge that it's a major roll of the dice.

Casey Mize doesn’t miss bats, and he has struggled to develop a consistent breaking ball for years. Also, his four-seam fastball is bad, and he keeps throwing it 35% of the time. Is there a path forward for him? Sure, but he has to make some real changes, and I just don’t see a high ceiling.

Jacob Latz had just a 22% strikeout rate last year, so you may not believe that there’s too much upside here, but he also had a 14.6% swinging strike rate, which is really appealing. As a left-handed pitcher, he has a changeup that he throws 30% of the time to righties and posts a 21.6% SwStr%. Latz’s fastball is a solid pitch. It sits at 94 mph with above-average extension and elite vertical break, which gives it a flat attack angle. He uses it up in the zone well, particularly against righties, which is why the swinging strike rate is higher against them. The pitch doesn’t perform as well to lefties, but he attacks the zone with it well. If he had a sinker that he could jam inside to lefties. As it stands, Latz has a good fastball and a plus changeup to righties, and we saw guys like Noah Cameron ride that to a strong season in 2025.

Johan Oviedo has elite fastball shape and velocity, but inconsistent command. He also has a slider that has flashed plus in the past. If he can find fastball command, or a cutter/sinker that he can throw for strikes more often, he could have an Edward Cabrera-type of rise. We have yet to see him do it consistently though.

Dustin May is throwing harder, which is great, but he's still not getting that many whiffs, and I'm truly not sure if he ever will. Also, the defense behind him is not nearly as good as last year's version of the Cardinals' defense was. That could impact him as a groundball pitcher.

I believe that Bailey Ober can go back to being a solid but not elite fantasy starter. Connelly Early would also be great, but I don't think he has a rotation spot in Boston, and I've talked enough in my pitch mix articles about pitchers taking a step forward with new pitches in their second season, so it makes sense for me to believe that Clay Holmes' revamped arsenal becomes more consistent in 2026. MARCH UPDATE: Ober's velocity is still down around 90 mph, and that's not where we need it to be.

Both Rhett Lowder and Eric Lauer appear to have an inside spot at rotation spots due to injury. I don't think either of them is a true high-upside play, but I think they're solid enough to be worth adding in deeper formats.

Jameson Taillon has a deep arsenal of pitches and can command the strike zone with any of them. Plus, he has a strong defense behind him. That seems to give him a pretty safe floor every season. He also added a kick-change last year, and it was a great weapon against left-handed pitching, which was sorely needed. He’s not going to strike out many hitters, which is why I'd target him more in deeper formats, but there is something to be said for pitchers with a safe floor on good teams.

Justin Verlander has looked pretty good this spring. I don't know if he can hold up over the course of a full season, but he's a pitcher in deeper redraft leagues that I would be OK drafting at the end of the draft because I think I'll get something decent from him now until he gets hurt. And then we can hope that he doesn't get hurt.

Sean Manaea is throwing 89 mph in spring training. I know he and the Mets say they're not concerned, but I am.

Adrian Houser was really good for stretches last season, and now he's pitching in a good ballpark with a solid infield defense (on one side) behind him. I bet we're streaming him in deeper formats this season.

This tier is filled with starting pitchers who I expect to miss the majority of the season. I know Quinn Priester claims he could be back in May, but he has a nerve issue that is impacting his wrist, and the Brewers can't seem to figure out what's going on. That makes me nervous.

We also have Grant Holmes, Spencer Arrighetti, and Jacob Lopez, who are all allegedly healthy right now, but I don't believe in any of them remaining healthy for long after each of them had concerning injuries last year.

Hunter Greene was electric in 2025, posting a 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 31.4% strikeout rate. He added velocity on both his fastball and slider and also established better command with the slider, which negated the need for a crucial third pitch. However, he was also on the injured list for almost two months with a groin/hip/back injury. The good news is that it wasn't an arm injury, but the increase in velocity will always make him a higher risk of injury. MARCH UPDATE: Obviously, the injury is a major blow. Greene likely won't return until July, and just how healthy or effective will he be then?

All of these pitchers are hurt but claim to be ready for the start of the season, except for Corbin Burnes, who likely won't return until after the All-Star break. Burnes was diagnosed with ligament damage in his elbow in June of last year and then had Tommy John surgery in the middle of the month. Over the winter, Burnes himself saidthat he was "looking at probably sometime in July" for his return. Specifically, he mentioned the All-Star break, which was also Shane Bieber's target return date last year. We know that Bieber had one setback, which pushed his return date, and he only pitched 40.1 innings last season. We may get the same thing from Burnes. Even if Burnes does come back after the All-Star break, you're likely looking at 10 starts for a pitcher who has 444 strikeouts in his last 452.1 innings. This is not a gamble I'm taking in any redraft formats.

Spencer Schwellenbach also came up in my presentation at FPAZ. I'm just such a big fan of what he brings to the table: a true six-pitch mix with a plus fastball, a slider for whiffs to righties, and a splitter for whiffs to lefties. I know he fractured his elbow because of his increased velocity, but I don't think he needs that added velocity to be really good. If he comes back throwing 96, I'll still have him cemented as a top 20 starting pitcher. MARCH UPDATE: He did come back throwing 96 because he didn't come back at all. I'm still a believer in the talent, but I'm out this year. I'll hope he throws a few good innings to end this season, and then I'll draft him in 2027.

As of now, none of these guys have starting spots. The top five guys are all pitchers I run to pick up if they were in the rotation, so keep an eye on all of them in the early weeks/months of the season.

Ian Seymour is another SWATCH. He used his changeup 32% of the time last year and threw it to both righties and lefties, with success as a swing and miss pitch or command pitch based on who he's attacking. His four-seam fastball is a good pitch against lefties and a mediocre pitch against righties. However, he keeps it up in the zone well to righties, which is important because that's also where he throws a cutter that he uses 27% of the time to righties. That fastball pairing is really just about limiting damage and then setting him up to use the changeup. Seymour has always been one of the top prospects in Tampa Bay's farm system as a starter and led all qualified minor leaguers in ERA in 2024 when he posted a 2.35 mark. He was a good starting pitching prospect before they used him as a reliever so they could expedite his path to the majors. I think he's in for a breakout season as a starter in 2026. MARCH UPDATE: Sadly, he is not in the rotation, so we must wait.

Parker Messick had a 19.4% K-BB% and 12% SwStr% in his seven starts last year, but I believe there is enough strikeout upside here because, wait for it, he’s a lefty with a really good changeup. Messick’s four-seam fastball grades out well despite being just 93 mph. He has league-average extension on the pitch but solid vertical movement and a flat attack angle. He gets it up in the zone well against lefties and has a whippy delivery while hiding the ball behind his back, which makes it tough for hitters to pick up. Messick has most of what we look for in a late-round breakout pick. He has a deep arsenal and a track record of missing bats in the minors. His starting spot might be the biggest question mark in addition to pitching on a team that has no problem going to its bullpen early in a game.

Robbie Snelling may be the starting pitching prospect in Miami who gets an MLB chance first, but Thomas White is the higher upside option. The 17th overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, finished last season by just annihilating Double-A hitters, which earned him two starts in Triple-A. On the season, he had a 2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 145/51 K/BB ratio in 89.2 innings. He’s always been good, but his strikeout rate jumped to the next level this season because of the addition of a kick-changeup. Miami has a few weak links in its rotation now, so it wouldn’t be crazy for White to get an MLB start before June is done.

Zebby Matthews appears in that same post-hype pitchers article. He has a flat fastball with mediocre extension that he commands well in the zone, which leads to above-average swinging strike rates against both righties and lefties. I understand that it's not an elite fastball, and it did get hit hard this year, but I think he can miss bats with it, especially if he starts to use the cutter and sinker more often to keep hitters from sitting on the four-seamer. Zebby's slider is also a plus pitch. It had a 22% SwStr% last year, and it's effective to both righties and lefties because it's a hard, gyro slider. He throws it often in two-strike counts to all hitters, and it has plus PutAway Rates to both, with an elite 28% rate to lefties. Having a platoon neutral secondary like that is an awesome foundation. I just believe in him, man. I don’t know what to tell you. He has a deep pitch mix of solid offerings, and I know he lacks that true plus pitch, but I think he can find a sequencing and approach that will unlock success. MARCH UPDATE: Zebby doesn't look nearly as good as Mick Abel right now.

Peyton Tolle rocketed through the Red Sox system last season, beginning the year in High-A and then finishing by throwing 16.1 innings for the Red Sox. It’s the type of rapid ascent that usually denotes a clear breakout season on the horizon, but the Red Sox added so much depth to their starting rotation this offseason that Tolle seems likely to begin the year in Triple-A. Tolle is a huge dude, and his four-seam fastball could be the pitch in the minor leagues. He can command it well in the zone, and he also posted an absurd 23% swinging-strike rate. The pitch has elite extension, which helps the average velocity play up. He also adds to that a slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Those pitches certainly need refinement, but the Red Sox were working on that last year. He changed his changeup into a kick change, added a curveball, and then also added a cutter, which he used a ton in his brief MLB sample size. It often takes a while for new pitches to click, and last season was Tolle’s first season ever in professional baseball, so it makes sense to assume there will be continued growth in 2026.

Nick Polllack loves Anthony Kay, so I had to put him in here. In truth, Nick has a point. Kay came back from Korea and is throwing harder while also featuring a changeup that looks legit. As a lefty, that will play. He could be a streamer this season.

Michael Soroka was pretty good in between his injuries in 2025 and now finds himself with a better team in a better home park. However, he only has a rotation spot for as long as Merrill Kelly is out.