Tigers series preview: Detroit is running low on pitchers

ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 28: Manager A.J. Hinch (14) of the Detroit Tigers looks at the scoreboard as he leaves the pitching mound during the Tuesday evening MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the Detroit Tigers on April 28, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Tigers come to Kansas City this weekend, giving the Royals an opportunity to vault ahead of them in the mediocre Central Division. Detroit was considered by many to be the favorites to win the division title, but have had an up-and-down start and have dropped six of their last nine. The Tigers’ rotation was thought to be a strength, but they have been decimated. Tarik Skubal had elbow surgery this week, Framber Valdez was suspended for throwing at Trevor Story, and they were already missing Jackson Jobe, Casy Mize, Reese Olson, Justin Verlander, and Troy Melton due to injury.

Detroit Tigers (18-20) vs. Kansas City Royals (17-21) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Tigers: 4.34 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 4.18 runs allowed/game (9th)

Royals: 4.13 runs scored/game (22nd), 4.55 runs allowed/game (17th)

The Tigers have hit just 36 home runs, three fewer than the Royals. They are hitting .238/.323/.375 on the road. Only two teams have stolen fewer bases. Kevin McGonigle is on his way to being in the mix for Rookie of the Year after a blazing start to his career, and he is hitting .338/.410/.486 in road games this year. Riley Greene is hitting .362/.463/.580 in his last 20 games.

Spencer Torkelson has the tenth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 31.3 percent. Kerry Carpenter is just a .212/.274/.303 career hitter against the Royals in 39 games. Colt Keith is a 7-for-20 (.350) hitter against Michael Wacha. The Tigers are without Gleyber Torres, Javier Báez, and Parker Meadows.

Keider Montero will go in the opener after winning his last start against the Rangers, allowing one run in 6.2 innings. Montero had a 3.72 ERA in 12 starts last year, with a 5.51 ERA in eight relief appearances. Salvador Perez is 4-for-7 in their career matchups, while Bobby Witt Jr. is 3-for-8 with a walk.

Ty Madden has not been announced as the starter on Saturday, but seems like a likely option after he tossed five shutout innings in his season debut last week. Madden was drafted by the Royals out of high school in Texas, but elected to attend the University of Texas where the Tigers made him a first round pick. The 26-year-old has battled injuries and missed all of last year, and was promoted after putting up a 4.71 ERA in 21 innings at Triple-A.

The Tigers have had a solid bullpen the last few seasons despite not having a lot of big name relievers, and have the 11th-lowest ERA in baseball at 3.76. Top reliever Will Vest is out with injury, but the Tigers have gotten good innings from former Royals pitcher Burch Smith. Kenley Jansen has 482 career saves, but has blown his last two opportunities, and is 6-for-9 in converting saves this year. Brant Hurter has a 59.6 percent groundball rate this year. Kyle Finnegan has a minuscule ERA despite the 8th-highest walk rate in baseball.

The Tigers swept the Royals in Detroit a few weeks ago and took 9 of 13 from them last year. The Royals seem to have the offense going better than it was operating when they last saw the Tigers. They had a missed opportunity to win a series against Cleveland, they could really use a series win this weekend against Detroit.

MLB Pipeline releases their first 2026 Mock Draft

HOOVER, AL - MAY 24: Ole Miss pitcher Cade Townsend (10) grimaces after walking a LSU player during the SEC Baseball Tournament Semifinals game between Ole Miss Rebels and LSU Tigers on May 24, 2025, at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium in Hoover, Alabama. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Last night MLB’s Pipeline released their first mock draft for the 2026 MLB Draft, a draft where the Atlanta Braves have two first round picks – including their first Top 10 selection in seven years.

This mock draft only covers the first 25 picks of the draft, as well as the first selection for teams who pick after that point. This means the Braves second first round pick at #26 is not covered in this mock draft.

The first three picks shouldn’t surprise anyone, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson, and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. The first pick that might surprise a little would be the Giants taking prep shortstop Jacob Lombard fourth. Then as expected the fifth pick is UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora. The sixth pick is another surprise with Florida prep lefty Gio Rojas, leaving Mississippi prep outfielder Eric Booth Jr. to go seventh, and Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick to go eighth.

The Braves came up at nine and were taking Ole Miss right-hander Cade Townsend, for the second time in a mock released yesterday after Keith Law also made this pick in his mock.

The writeup for that pick is right here:

“Clubs believe that college pitchers will rise up boards by the time the Draft arrives, and Townsend could move up more than most. He can hit 98 mph with his fastball and spin a pair of plus breaking balls as well as a plus cutter.”

Others of note in this mock draft would include Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress at #10, Etowah HS outfielder Trevor Condon at #15, and Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron #16.

Thoughts

I like Townsend as a prospect in this draft, though I am not feeling like he is the guy I would target at #9. He has been great at a sophomore this year, a real improvement over his freshman season in 2025 – especially with the command. He also has potentially four pitches that could be plus offerings, though there is still some effort in his delivery which could keep his command in the more fringe-average range.

Overall this year he is 5-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 52 IP over 11 starts. Townsend has struck out 73 to 13 walks, racking up a 12.6 K/9. He has also allowed just 37 hits, for a 6.4 H/9 and five home runs.

It is also important to know that he missed a start this year with shoulder inflammation. He has returned and looked good since then, but considering it is a shoulder, his medicals will need to be reviewed closely.

I personally would have preferred a bat here, as I believe the drop off in bats between #9 and #26 is greater than the drop off of arms in that same range.

Guardians Analysis: Franco Aleman Gets the Call

After a long wait, it’s finally time to see Franco Aleman on a mound in Cleveland. The 26 year-old, 6-foot-6 specimen of a reliever finally gets the call.

BBWA writer Francys Romero reports the call has been made on Twitter:

I am not sure who @MayDayTimes is, but they had it first:

The big righty reliever had gone through ups and downs in Columbus, primarily with location, but 2026 has seen him completely dominate Triple-A. So where does Aleman fit? That answer is easy: wherever he’s needed. The Guardians bullpen, outside of Erik Sabrowski and recently Matt Festa and Cade Smith, has been abysmal. Colin Holderman has been better lately but isn’t used in big spots. Peyton Pallette can’t find the zone (16.4% BB%), Connor Brogdon has been rough and is coming off an outing where he gave up back to back home runs to Bobby Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino, and Tim Herrin has a horseshoe you know where as he’s running a -4.1% K-BB% but hasn’t allowed an earned run.

So yes, Aleman can and will slide in wherever he’s needed, the question just becomes can he throw enough strikes? This season says yes, but the lurking struggles of 2025 and beyond still loom. Aleman is throwing in the zone a career high 53.9% of the time, a mark 9% higher than 2024 and 2025 combined in Columbus, but the stuff is better. Aleman is generating better spin on his fastball and slider, his only two offerings thus far, and nobody in Triple-A has been able to hit either of them.

Aleman has a bull whip of a release, making for an incredibly uncomfortable at-bat for right-handed hitters. Aleman torments them and fares far better on a rate basis than he does against lefties. Aleman is able to utilize his fastball to cuff righties so that his slider can dive away from them and induce lots of swing and miss. From TJStats, Aleman is running a sub .200 xwOBA against RHH with a preposterous 42.3% strikeout rate.

You’ll notice the walk rate spike against lefties. Aleman being a two pitch pitcher with one being a slider turns him almost into a one pitch guy which lends to longer at-bats and more walks as the chase doesn’t follow. Definitely something to monitor as he makes the leap.

Aleman is not a sure thing nor a savior for the bullpen, but he is a massive step in the right direction. Cleveland shopped in the bargain bin all offseason and are feeling some regrets of their cheapness. Aleman will hopefully be the first of a few arms on the way to Cleveland to aid the back end in their quest to stay Division Champs.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Robbie Snelling and Spencer Jones make their MLB debuts

Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, our weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire guide. We'll be doing things a little differently this season, with Eric Samulski publishing the initial waiver-wire article on Friday afternoon. Then James Schiano updates it every Sunday to make sure you get the most up-to-date information.

The premise of the article is pretty straightforward. We'll give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When we list a player, we'll list the category where we think he’ll be helpful or the quick reason he’s listed. We hope it helps you determine if the player fits what your team needs. Not every "trending" player will be a good addition for your specific roster.

To qualify for this list, a player needs to be UNDER 40% rostered in Yahoo! formats. We understand you may say, “These players aren’t available in my league,” and we can’t help you there. These players are available in over 60% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they’re available in many places, and that can hopefully satisfy readers who play in all league types.

⚾️ Baseball is back on NBC: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Hitters

Casey Schmitt - 1B/2B/3B, SF (40% rostered)

(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, HOT STREAK)

Two weeks ago, we had Schmitt on here with the headline "hot streak coming." Since then, Schmitt has hit .318 with four home runs, seven runs scored, and 10 RBI in 13 games. No, he's not going to keep up that pace for the entire season, but he's 27 years old and has shown some intriguing skills in a part-time role before. This year, he's improved his barrel rate to 16.7% and his hard-hit rate to 46.7% by looking to pull and lift the ball more often and being a bit more selective. His zone contact rate is up to 91%, and his swinging strike rate is under 10%. Kudos to you if you were able to scoop him before the hot stretch.

Adolis Garcia - OF, PHI (34% rostered)

(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, POWER UPSIDE)

We created this narrative that Garcia was washed back when he was dealing with knee injuries in Texas, so perhaps we're not noticing what he's doing this season. His hard-hit rate is up to 53%, and he's posting a career-high average exit velocity. He's squaring the ball up more than he ever has and seems to be focused on peppering line drives and not just trying to lift the ball. His swinging strike rate is the lowest it's ever been, and he's chasing less than he has since 2020. Oh, and his zone contact rate and contact rate are the highest they've ever been. He may not be a 30-home-run bat anymore, but he could easily hit .245-.255 with 25 home runs this season, hitting in the middle of an offense that's beginning to heat up. That deserves more love.

Bryson Stott - 2B/SS, PHI (33% rostered)

(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, BATTED BALL QUALITY)

Earlier this season, Stott was really struggling, but Eric had him in a do-not-drop article and said, Stott "still has a 95% zone contact rate, a 6.6% SwSt%, and the quality of contact he is making has been good. His hard-hit rate is 50%, which is up 20.5% from last year, the 4th-biggest improvement of any hitter in baseball. His average exit velocity is up two mph, his bat speed is up one mph, and he is pulling the ball 12% more. His attack direction, which measures the horizontal angle of the bat’s sweet spot at the point of contact, has gone from two degrees towards the opposite field to four degrees to the pull side, which is tied for the 4th-biggest change in baseball. So what we’re getting is a player who is making elite levels of contact, hitting the ball harder than ever, and making a conscious change to pull the ball more. He’s also a player who has stolen at least 24 bases in three straight seasons. All of that should entice us." While the batting average hasn't improved yet, Stott has three home runs and eight RBI in his last seven games, so the quality of contact is starting to lead to impactful hits as the weather is warming up. Ryan McMahon - 3B, NYY (2% rostered) was also in that same article, and he's hit .311 with two home runs and eight RBI over his last 13 games. Perhaps that can continue if you need corner infield help.

Brooks Lee - 2B/3B/SS, MIN (31% rostered)

(HOT STREAK, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE)

Few hitters are hotter than Brooks Lee, who is actually a top 40 player in Yahoo formats over the last two weeks because he's hitting .326 with two home runs, eight runs scored, 11 RBI, and two steals. He has just a 5% barrel rate and 33% hard-hit rate, so he's likely overperforming from a power standpoint right now, but he makes a lot of contact, doesn't take a lot of called strikes, and squares the ball up regularly. That should lead to a good batting average, but he also only had three steals all of last season, so it's hard to know exactly how much he's going to run this year. Another multi-position option for deeper formats is Ezequiel Duran- 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF, TEX (12% rostered), who has hit his way into a (pretty much) every-day role in Texas. Over the last two weeks, he's hitting .345 with one home run, one steal, five RBI, and six runs scored. This is more about playing the hot streak here, but if you need a multi-position guy to fill in gaps in your roster in a deeper format, he'll do the trick.

Samuel Basallo - C, BAL (30% rostered)

(PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, POWER UPSIDE)

Basallo probably deserves a look in more one-catcher formats. Yes, he's going to sit against left-handed pitchers, but most catchers are sitting out two or more games a week. Basallo has a 10.5% barrel rate, a nearly 50% hard-hit rate, and has started to heat up a bit at the plate, hitting .293 over the last 20 games with four home runs and 13 RBI. Over the last 30 days, he's the 11th-ranked catcher on FanGraph's Player Rater and likely needs to be rostered in all 12-team formats.

Spencer Jones - OF, NYY (25% rostered)

(PROSPECT CALL-UP, POWER UPSIDE)

The Yankees called up Spencer Jones on Friday with Jasson Dominguez on the injured list. Understandably, there is a lot of hype around a hitter who's 6'6" and has light tower power. Jones has a .258/.366/.592 slash line with 11 homers, 41 RBI, and seven stolen bases in Triple-A. However, he also has an astonishingly low 59% contact rate overall, with a 32 percent strikeout rate. It’s incredibly difficult to be a starter at the MLB level if you make that little contact. He may get off to a hot start and smash a few home runs early on, and we understand adding him if you're in an OPS format or are desperate for power, but we would be really careful spending big FAAB dollars on a hitter with this profile. Plus, Giancarlo Stanton (calf) is not expected to be sidelined too much longer and would most likely take Jones’ spot on the roster.

Cole Young - 2B, SEA (24% rostered)

(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, POTENTIAL BREAKOUT)

As we said last week, second base is a trainwreck, so why are so few people rostering Young? He’s hitting .276 on the season with a .342 on-base percentage, three home runs, two steals, 20 runs scored, and 20 RBI. He’s doing a little bit of everything and was a guy Eric highlighted this offseason in his second-year hitters article. In fact, over the last two weeks, he's the 8th-ranked second baseman on the FanGraph's Player Rater.

Carlos Cortes - OF, ATH (22% rostered)

(GREAT SCHEDULE, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE)

Over the last 30 days, Cortes is the 27th-ranked outfielder in the FanGraph's Player Rater. He's hitting .365 with four home runs, 10 runs scored, and 12 RBI over that span. His swing is compact and helps him generate more power than his below-average bat speed would suggest. His elite power metrics right now are likely to trend down, but elite bat-to-ball skills and great swing decisions give him a better floor than most would assume. Even with Brent Rooker’s return to the Athletics’ lineup, Cortes is still starting in the corner outfield and hitting near the middle of their order against right-handed pitching. Even when Denzel Clarke (foot) eventually returns, it's going to be hard to take Cortes' bat out of the lineup.

Spencer Steer - 1B/OF, CIN (16% rostered)

(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, PAST SUCCESS)

We’ve seen Steer be a useful fantasy contributor before, and we like having any member of the Reds lineup who is getting regular playing time. Over his last 30 days, Steer is a top 40 outfielder on FanGraph's Player Rater. Over that stretch, he is hitting .291 with five home runs, 11 runs scored, and nine RBI. We called this out last week, but the Reds' inability to get anybody on base is leading to a pretty depressed RBI total, given the amount of home runs Steer is hitting. We would bet on that changing.

Nasim Nunez- 2B/SS, WAS (12% rostered)

(BATTING AVERAGE SURGE, STOLEN BASE UPSIDE

The batting average is bad for Nunez, but he has been collecting more hits lately. Over his last 15 games, he's hitting .262/.360/.310 with nine RBI and six steals. He also has a 9/7 K/B ratio over that span. He doesn't hit the ball hard, so there will be no power, and he relies a lot on placement and speed to collect hits, but if he's going to make this kind of contact and run a 50% groundball rate and 21% line drive rate, he's going to have a passable batting average and then try to steal bases whenever he's on. Brayan Rocchio - 2B/SS, CLE (12% rostered) also has four steals over that same 15-game stretch with a .273/.322/.309 slash line, so he's giving you a little bit of what Nunez is with a higher batting average floor and less stolen base upside.

Carson Benge - OF, NYM (11% rostered)

(PROSPECT PEDIGREE, HOT STREAK)

Sometimes prospects just need a little bit of time to figure things out. Carson Benge got off to a slow start to his MLB career, but over his last 15 games, he's hitting .302/.348/.512 with two home runs, nine runs scored, seven RBI, and one steal. He also has an 8/3 K/BB ratio over that span and a 51.4% hard-hit rate, so we like that he's not striking out much and is making firm contact. He's not going to hit for big-time power, but he already has six steals this season, so if the batting average can continue to be solid, Benge is going to help a lot of fantasy managers. Another option would be Zack Gelof - 2B/OF, ATH (1% rostered), who has hit .269/.309/.519 in 21 games since being called up, with three home runs and two steals. We may remember the version of Gelof that went 14/14 with a .267 average in 69 games in his rookie season in 2023, but that version is still likely fictitious. However, Gelof has made some changes to his contact profile that should prevent him from being as bad as he was the last two seasons. His swing rate and chase rate are both down this season, but he's swinging far more often in the heart of the zone. Also, despite chasing LESS outside of the zone, his contact on pitches outside of the zone is up 36%, which should be a good indication that when he is offering, it's on pitches he knows he can foul off or put in play. It's just a 21-game sample size, so who knows if this will continue, but it might be worth a gamble given his power and speed and the fact that second base is a black hole in fantasy right now.

Sam Antonacci - 2B/3B/OF, CWS (11% rostered)

(HOT STREAK, SPEED UPSIDE - MAYBE)

After a slow start, Antonnaci is hitting .311/.407/.511 in his last 15 games with one home run, eight RBI, and eight runs scored. He doesn't have much power and has just a 37% hard-hit rate over that span, but he's trying to lift the ball and drive it into the gaps, which we like. He has also started to play against lefties, which the White Sox weren't letting him do early on. I'm not sure why he has just one steal despite stealing almost 50 bases last season, but you'd have to think that the speed will also come and be paired with an elite contact profile. Another speed option would be Caleb Durbin - 2B/3B, BOS (11% rostered). The Red Sox have been running a little more since they fired Alex Cora. In 12 games since then, Caleb Durbin is hitting .250/.302/.375 with one home run, six runs scored, seven RBI, and four steals. That's not exceptional, but Durbin should still steal 20 bases this season and hit .250-.270, so that has some value in deeper formats.

JJ Bleday - OF, CIN (10% rostered)

(APPROACH CHANGE, PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY)

Bleday has come back from the minors on a mission, hitting .303/.410/.727 with four home runs, six runs scored, seven RBI, and a 7/6 K/BB ratio in 10 games. It's a small sample, but his bat speed is up from 71.7 mph to 75 mph, and his hard-hit rate is surging to 61.5%. That has helped his average exit velocity go from an 88.4 mph career rate to 94.5 mph. He's also running just a 19% groundball rate, so much of what he's hitting is on a line or in the air. He's also being far more aggressive in the "shadow" area of the strike zone, which is the fringes of the zone, swinging 11% more often there than he has in his career. That aggression has caused his contact rate to drop a bit, but if it allows him to hit for more power, then we're all for it.

Nathaniel Lowe - 1B, CIN (9% rostered)

(REGULAR PLAYING TIME, HOT STREAK)

Another Cincinnati player, which is weird for a team that isn't hitting well. Lowe has started pretty much every game for the Reds since Eugenio Suarez went on the IL, and is hitting .270 with six home runs and 16 RBI in 27 games. He’s pulling the ball more than he ever has and hitting with a higher launch angle than he ever has, while also hitting in a hitter-friendly environment. Oh, and his bat speed is up 1.5 mph from last year. I don't know if this will last, but I'll roster him while I wait to find out.

Isaac Collins - OF, KC (3% rostered)

(HOT STREAK, MODEST SPEED UPSIDE)

Over his last 50 plate appearances, Collins has seen the biggest increase in xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average) in baseball. If you even go back to his last 75 plate appearances, Collins is hitting .286/.387/.429 with two home runs, nine runs scored, nine RBI, and two steals. He has a 19/10 K/BB ratio over that span, while also posting a nearly 45% hard-hit rate (the league average is 39.7%). On the season, Collins now has a 7.9% barrel rate, which is up from his 5.4% career mark. That could be the result of a massive increase in fly ball rate from 34.3% last year to 49.2% this year. He has just a 9.1% HR/Fly ball rate, which is below league average, so it’s unclear if elevating the ball that much will really pay off for him in the long run, but the approach change appears to be working for now.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pitchers

Robbie Snelling - SP, MIA (33% rostered)

Snelling got the call and will start on Friday, so by the time James updates this on Sunday, he's going to have way more information on what Snelling could do at the MLB level. For now, we acknowledge that he's a top pitching prospect in baseball, who was crushing Triple-A and is worth an add in most formats. Also, James recorded a video on him this week, so check that out for more details.

Gregory Soto - RP PIT (32% rostered)

Heading into Friday, Soto is coming off back-to-back save opportunities and conversions. He's thrown 6 1/3 scoreless with six strikeouts, two saves, and two wins in recent weeks, which has provided tons of fantasy value for your teams. However, we have seen this happen before. He got his first save on April third, and then didn't record another one until this week. It's hard to see him being "the closer" on the Pirates, but he's certainly in the mix, and his ratios are good enough to provide value even if the saves don't come.

Jacob Latz - SP/RP, TEX (31% rostered)

Since April 14th, Latz has recorded the only saves for Texas, and Jakob Junis has the only other save opportunity, which is just one opportunity that he blew. Lats has also only pitched once since May 1st, and it was in a non-save situation, so this remains a bit of a fluid bullpen. We assume that Latz is the closer, but there haven't been many save chances of late, and he's still a left-handed former starter who throws 94 mph. That's not really the profile of a lockdown closer. We're hapy to add him but not assuming this is a rest of season type of thing.

Rico Garcia - RP, BAL (28% rostered)

Last week, Ryan Helsley became yet another closer who is on the IL, as the Orioles' closer hit the injured list with elbow inflammation. Since then, the Orioles have had one genuine save chance, which went to Garcia, and he converted. Andrew Kittredge was also charged with a blown save, but he did not enter in the 9th with a lead. Garcia has also been far better than Kittredge this season, so he's the player we're looking to add, but we also just saw all of Jhoan Duran, Daniel Palencia, and Raisel Iglesias get hurt and return in like three weeks, so we can't just assume Garcia is going to have this role for a month-plus.

Jack Perkins - RP/SP, ATH (27% rostered)

If somebody gave up on Perkins because he had a rough outing on Wednesday, we would scoop him up. The reliever has a 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 19/4 K/BB ratio in 14.2 innings. That also comes with three saves. He's simply the best reliever in the Athletics' bullpen, and it's hard to see them moving away from him in the late innings.

Logan Henderson - SP, MIL (27% rostered)

Henderson was promoted to start for the Brewers last Sunday in the wake of Brandon Woodruff’s concerning drop in velocity and ensuing trip to the injured list. Henderson had a great season debut Sunday against the Nationals despite squandering a one-run lead in the fifth inning. Nevertheless, his trusted changeup was sharp, and his cutter was intriguing when he was able to bury it in on the hands of left-handed hitters. He also showed off a new sweeper that would be a crucial pitch for him against right-handed hitters. Woodruff got fluid drained from his shoulder this week, so we're still not convinced he's going to be healthy in a couple of weeks, which means we're comfortably adding Henderson in most places.

Tony Santillan - RP, CIN (26% rostered)

It was Graham Ashcraft - RP, CIN (14% rostered), who got the first save opportunity with Emilio Pagan on the injured list. He did blow the save, but somebody from this Reds bullpen is going to emerge as the closer for the three months that Pagan is going to be sidelined. Terry Francona likes to use one guy in the back-end of the bullpen, so it might be worth trying to figure out who it is. Eric recorded a video going into detail on that this week.

Griffin Jax - SP/RP, TB (25% rostered)

The Rays are stretching Jax out as a starter, and with Steven Matz on the IL with elbow inflammation, there is a rotation spot for Jax to take. On Thursday, Jax pitched four innings, struck out three and walked one while throwing 59 pitches in this one. The former reliever showed off a six-pitch mix in this one, using five pitches at least 14 percent of the time. He threw plenty of strikes with his sinker and four-seamer and was able to use his changeup for whiffs against both righties and lefties. However, no other pitches really missed many bats, and he had just a 10 percent swinging strike rate. We’ll need to see a little more strikeout upside from Jax if he’s going to be relied on in fantasy leagues, but he could be worth a speculative add in deeper formats.

Janson Junk - SP, MIA (20% rostered)

Junk just continues to produce with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across seven starts. Of course, that comes with a 17% strikeout rate and 10.1% swinging strike rate, so this is not a slam-dunk add. We have seen him get better recently, using his fastball up in the zone more often and then keeping the changeups, sweepers, and sliders low in the zone. We still consider him a streamer, but he's one of the better ones for now.

Griffin Canning - SP, SD (19% rostered)

Canning was pretty good in his debut with the Padres, allowing one run on three hits in five innings while striking out seven. The velocity is up on his four-seam fastball, and he actually went to his changeup way more than we're used to seeing, but it got plenty of whiffs. His command was a bit all over the place, but it was his first start off the IL so he deserves some grace. We still consider him more of a deep league add.

Connor Prielipp - SP, MIN (12% rostered)

Meanwhile, Prielipp should be rostered in far more places. No, he hasn't gone deeper than five innings in any of his starts, which is an issue, but the Twins are pushing him past 90 pitches, so it's going to happen. Mick Abel is also dealing with continued soreness in his arm and needed a cortisone injection, so Prielipp's spot in the rotation seems secure. He has a solid enough fastnall and a wicked slider. I also think his changeup will continue to improve versus righties because it has the makings of a good pitch.

Christian Scott - SP, NYM (11% rostered)

Scott was electric in his second start of the season last week, striking out eight Angels in five innings of work. He was not as good in Coors this week, but that start was actually encouraging for us because he looked fine in a bad environment. His fastball has tremendous life and is electric working up in the zone. His sweeper moves like a frisbee and his cutter has nice bite. It's unclear how good he will be against lefties, so his next start against Detroit is a bit unnerving, but he has plenty of upside and a good schedule coming up, so we love him as an add.

Peter Lambert - SP, HOU (11% rostered)

We recommended Lambert after his first two starts, so we're going to keep him on here now, especially after a solid outing against the Dodgers. He's probably just a streamer or a deeper league add, but he has shown a 95 mph four-seam fastball with good vertical movement that he keeps up in the zone. He has also shown the ability to keep the changeup low/away from lefties, while the cutter looks like a decent pitch. It's unclear if this production will stick, but we like the four-seam, cutter, change combination, and the breaking balls are just fines, so we're going to keep rolling him out there.

Ryan Zeferjahn - RP, LAA (1% rostered)

Did you know Zeferjahn has increased his fastball velocity more than any other pitcher in baseball? There are some command issues here, but he has good Stuff+ numbers, is being used in high-leverage spots, and can miss bats. Somebody needs to close for the Angels.

Best NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Predictions for MLB [Friday, May 8]

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Let’s welcome the weekend in with a trio of NRFI/YRFI bets to cover you throughout the 15-game slate of baseball on Friday, May 8.

My top MLB picks begin with an NL East clash between the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins before wrapping up with another National League showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres in the late window.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

PickOdds
Twins/Guardians - NRFI/YRFI-135
Nationals/Marlins - NRFI/YRFI-115
Cardinals/Padres - NRFI/YRFI-115

Twins at Guardians: NRFI (-135)

Minnesota Twins left-hander Connor Prielipp has limited opposing batters to a .455 OPS while allowing just a pair of hits and a single run across seven opening innings.

Additionally, the Cleveland Guardians have overachieved at the dish of late, sporting a .336 wOBA (.310 xwOBA) across the past seven games.

I’m also expecting the Twins to struggle against emerging Cleveland star Parker Messick. He’s spun a tidy 2.40 ERA and 2.86 xERA while also pitching seven consecutive scoreless opening innings and allowing just two hits and a minuscule .247 OPS.

  • Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Apple TV

Nationals at Marlins: NRFI (-115)

Miami Marlins lefty Robby Snelling is set to make his MLB debut after posting a 1.86 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, and 40.0 K% across six Triple-A starts.

I’m fully anticipating Snelling to keep the Washington Nationals off balance in their first look at him, and the Nats also have the fifth-highest strikeout percentage against southpaws. 

Meanwhile, the Marlins are in tough against Washington LHP Foster Griffin. He’s held opposing hitters to a .442 OPS without allowing a single earned run through seven opening innings, and I also value him keeping batters to a 36.0% hard-hit rate. 

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Marlins.TV

Cardinals at Padres: NRFI (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy has pitched a scoreless first frame in six of seven starts and boasts a positive pitch value on each of his three most frequent offerings. This spells trouble for a San Diego Padres offense that has failed to score a run in the first inning in 83.8% of their games.

Similarly, the Cards rank middle of the pack in games without a first-inning run (70.3%) and now face Friars righty Griffin Canning following a solid season debut.

Canning scattered six baserunners across five innings while allowing just one run and striking out seven in his last outing, which also included a scoreless opening frame.

  • Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Apple TV
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
  • NRFI/YRFI picks: 6-7, -1.37 units

What is a NRFI bet?

NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.

A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.

NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Brandon Lowe has been most impactful acquisition of Pirates offseason

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 07: Brandon Lowe #5 of the Pittsburgh Pirates celebrates with teammates in the dugout after a solo home against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the firest inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on May 07, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Pirates have had a handful of big name free agent signings in the offseason. The Bucs signed players like Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’hearn, Marcell Ozuna and Gregory Soto to name a few. Who has been the most impactful free agent signing so far for the Bucs ? 

To me, the obvious pick for most impactful free agent has been Brandon Lowe. Lowe was not a free agent signing, as he was a part of a three-team trade, but was still a move made in the offseason so we are counting it here. Lowe was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, and he leads the team in home runs with 10 and is third on the team in RBIs with 23. Oneil Cruz is first on the team with 28 RBIs, while Ryan O’hearn is second with 25. 

It has been a long time since Pittsburgh has had a second baseman who can hit for serious power, and Lowe is doing just that.

The veteran second basemen went on an absolute tear in their last series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Lowe had five hits in two games played in Arizona. He also hit two home runs in the series, with both of them coming in the first inning. Those home runs were a huge reason why the Pirates won two out of three against Arizona, securing a 1-0 and 4-2 wins.

Pittsburgh is now 21-17 on the season, and that early success is because of the Pittsburgh offense. The Pirates had one of the worst offenses last year, but the addition of Lowe specifically has turned them into more of a power team this year.

That is surprising too, because everyone thought that O’hearn and Ozuna would be the additions that would bring the power, but really it has been the opposite. Lowe’s power has been so nice, especially in the top of that lineup. Having Lowe bat second in the lineup behind Cruz and in front of Bryan Reynolds is the best lineup decision in my opinion.

We have talked a lot about his offense, but his defense has been really solid too so far. His veteran presence has also been important especially with Pittsburgh still having a younger lineup and team. The Pirates will need Brandon Lowe to continue to play well if Pittsburgh wants to contend in what is the most competitive decision in baseball.  

Comment below who you think has been the most impactful acquisition from the offseason so far for the Pirates.  

The Brians | A strange coincidence in St. Louis Cardinal history

Baseball is full of statistical oddities, but the St. Louis Cardinals in 2008 and 2009 had one of the strangest name coincidences in franchise history. Enter Brian Barden and Brian Barton.

Both were born in California. Both were born in April. Both were trying to find their footing in the big leagues at the exact same time—often on the same roster.

In this week’s episode of Random Cardinal of the Week, Jim Plaza dives into the overlapping careers of these two players who flashed brilliance before fading into baseball trivia.

In this episode, we discuss:

The 2008 Rule 5 Draft pick that cost the Cardinals a fan favorite (So Taguchi).

Brian Barden’s blistering April 2009 that saw him named NL Rookie of the Month.

The “switch” that happened between the two Brians during Spring Training.

The surprising link between Brian Barden and World Series hero David Freese.

Whether you remember them as the future of the Cardinals’ infield or just as a confusing duo in the box score, we’re breaking down the full “Two Brians” saga. Unfortunately, the quick stay in the majors made it more difficult to find relevant pictures and highlights, so the YouTube video is a little bare on the visual this week. Either way, we hope you have been enjoying this weekly segment and are always welcome to feedback!

Drop your favorite Brian memories below!

Momentum: Mariners at White Sox Series Preview

SAN DIEGO, CA - MAY 01: Munetaka Murakami #5 of the Chicago White Sox celebrates in the dugout during the game between the Chicago White Sox and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Friday, May 1, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Emma Steinberg/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Mariners finally showed some life against a really tough opponent, handing the Braves their first series loss of the season earlier this week. All three games were incredibly close affairs as you would expect in a series between two playoff contenders. Seattle now embarks on a seven-game road trip and the beginning of a stretch of 13 straight games without an off day. Despite possessing a record two games below .500, the M’s are still in fine position in the standings because it seems like no other team in the American League actually wants to win — there are just four teams with winning records currently and the Mariners are in possession of a Wild Card berth with their 18-20 record.

GameTimeMariners StarterWhite Sox StarterMariners Win%White Sox Win%
Game 1Friday, May 8 | 4:40 pmRHP Emerson HancockRHP Sean Burke52.8%47.2%
Game 2Saturday, May 9 | 4:10 pmRHP Luis CastilloLHP Anthony Kay55.7%44.3%
Game 3Sunday, May 10 | 11:10 amRHP Logan GilbertRHP Davis Martin55.2%44.8%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
OverviewWhite SoxMarinersEdge
Batting (wRC+)96 (11th in AL)103 (3rd in AL)Mariners
Fielding (FRV)1 (6th)-12 (15th)White Sox
Starting Pitching (FIP-)99 (10th)96 (5th)Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)103 (9th)82 (2nd)Mariners

The White Sox have made some quick progress in their rebuild after losing more than 100 games in three straight seasons. It’s easy to improve after losing a record 121 games like they did in 2024, but the forward progress this year has been shocking. The team was the surprising landing spot for Munetaka Murakami this offseason and their crop of young prospects have already started to make big impacts in the majors. After a bit of a slow start to the season, Chicago is 11-7 over its last 18 games. Even though they’re in a pretty favorable spot in the standings — third in the AL Central and just half a game out of a Wild Card spot — I don’t think this team is suddenly a contender this year, but they’re definitely a lot closer to breaking out of their rebuilding cycle than expected.

PlayerPositionBatsPAK%BB%ISOwRC+
Sam AntonacciLFL749.5%8.1%0.148126
Munetaka Murakami1BL16034.4%17.5%0.328153
Miguel Vargas3BR15917.0%16.4%0.208119
Colson MontgomerySSL15428.6%9.7%0.258127
Chase Meidroth2BR15324.2%10.5%0.098108
Andrew BenintendiDHL12133.1%5.8%0.13574
Jarred Kelenic (MiLB)RFL10428.8%18.3%0.26298
Tristan PetersCFL8924.7%6.7%0.03878
Drew Romo (MiLB)CS6826.5%10.3%0.263137

I think there are a bunch of teams who really regret missing out on Murakami this offseason now that they’ve seen what he can do against MLB pitching. Yes, the contact issues are still present — he’s running 34.4% strikeout rate and a 58.9% contact rate — but his walk rate has been surprisingly robust and the power is obviously big enough to play. He’s currently second in the majors with 14 home runs. He’s not the only power hitter in the middle of this lineup either. Colson Montgomery made a splash last summer, blasting 21 home runs in just 71 games after being called up in July. He’s hit another nine to start this year and is playing solid defense at shortstop to boot. Miguel Vargas is the other youngster showing some real progress this season. Pushed off the fringe of the Dodgers roster a few years ago, he’s been able to establish himself with regular playing time in Chicago. He’s got an excellent approach at the plate and hits the ball hard enough to run an above average batting line at third base.

Jarred Kelenic deserves a mention as well. He was recalled from Triple-A last week after Everson Pereira was sidelined with an injury. Kelenic couldn’t establish himself in the two years he spent in Atlanta and signed a minor league deal with the White Sox this offseason. Still just 26 years old, his issues are still the same as ever: trouble making consistent contact.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Sean Burke39.220.5%5.1%6.8%42.5%2.723.19
Emerson Hancock41.228.9%3.8%17.5%46.7%2.593.69
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam28.8%42.9%94.0112971080.289
Sinker24.2%9.1%94.291551960.292
Cutter2.7%6.9%89.986
Changeup0.4%6.9%85.8
Curveball16.7%28.8%79.387581120.306
Slider27.3%5.3%86.585

Sean Burke showed some flashes of promise in his first full season in the big leagues last year. His 4.22 ERA was perfectly acceptable for a rebuilding Chicago club, though his 4.92 FIP wasn’t nearly as encouraging. Still, there was a stretch in May and June where he ran a 3.33 ERA and a 4.06 FIP across nine starts. Things are looking up for Burke this year. He’s dramatically improved his command and cut his walk rate by more than half, down to 5.1%. He doesn’t strike out that many guys, but simply reducing the amount of traffic on the bases has helped him dramatically improve his topline results.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Anthony Kay3014.0%10.5%15.4%39.2%5.706.41
Luis Castillo34.119.4%8.1%8.7%33.0%6.294.25
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam38.2%35.2%95.89157720.491
Sinker13.4%44.0%95.1114
Cutter24.1%18.7%90.999911580.421
Changeup22.3%0.0%85.7109
Slider2.0%2.2%84.6109
Sweeper20.3%45.1%82.810978970.323

After a few years of riding the Triple-A shuttle for the Blue Jays, Anthony Kay signed a two-year deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of NBP. He excelled in Japan and returned to the US this offseason, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. He developed a sinker and a sweeper overseas, giving him a much deeper repertoire to keep batters off balance. Unfortunately, that revamped arsenal hasn’t helped him find much success against batters this year. The stuff models really like his sinker and a few of his secondary pitches, but he’s throwing a thoroughly mediocre four-seam fastball 30% of the time right now. That pitch is getting absolutely crushed. He simply isn’t working deep enough into counts to properly utilize his secondary pitches, his strike out rate has cratered to just 14.0%, and his ERA and FIP are both approaching six.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Davis Martin4425.4%4.7%4.9%38.6%1.642.46
Logan Gilbert4423.2%5.4%15.4%36.7%4.304.43
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam21.8%28.9%94.0961111020.356
Sinker20.2%11.5%92.886
Cutter10.3%19.5%89.689105820.468
Changeup10.7%21.4%90.18645850.356
Curveball5.8%14.3%82.191
Slider31.3%4.4%87.195

Davis Martin has quietly led the White Sox rotation with a 1.64 ERA and 2.46 FIP in seven starts this year. He’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.17 to 5.38 this year, adding more than eight points to his strikeout rate while simultaneously cutting his walk rate to 4.7%. He’s added a cutter to his pitch mix this year, giving him six weapons to use against opposing batters. None of them stand out individually in the stuff models, but his slider looks like one of the nastiest pitches in baseball right now. The whiff rate on that breaking ball is 59.6%, the second highest whiff rate on a slider in baseball. Opposing batters are running a sub-.200 wOBA against his three secondary pitches, and a plus-.300 wOBA against his three fastball variations. The problem is that batters have been struggling to identify his pitches — his called strike rate is up 3.5 points this year — so even if they’re making good contact against his fastballs, they’re just as likely to whiff or mishit one of his secondary offerings.


The Big Picture:

TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Athletics19-180.514-10L-W-L-L-W
Mariners18-200.4741.5+4L-L-W-L-W
Rangers17-200.4592.0-6L-L-L-W-L
Astros15-230.3954.5-37W-W-L-W-L
Angels15-230.3954.5-14W-L-L-W-W

The Athletics managed to avoid a sweep in Philadelphia with a 12-1 blowout win yesterday. They head to Baltimore this weekend looking to maintain their grip on the AL West lead. The Rangers lost their series in New York against the Yankees and will return home to face the red-hot Cubs this weekend. The blows just keep coming for the Astros: Carlos Correa has been sidelined for the season with an ankle injury suffered on Tuesday. Houston wound up losing its series against the Dodgers and will head to Cincinnati this weekend.

Nats Look To Stay Hot On The Road Against The Marlins

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 07: Keibert Ruiz #20 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run against the Minnesota Twins during the seventh inning at Nationals Park on May 7, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Thanks to an offensive outburst by Keibert Ruiz, which included 2 doubles and a solo shot, the Nationals beat the Twins 7-5 to secure the series win and an even 3-3 homestand. The win brought their record on the year to 18-20, good for sole possession of second place in the NL East and 2 wins shy of the .500 mark. They’ll have an opportunity to climb over the .500 mark with a three-game set in Miami against the Marlins, who are in the midst of a 4 game losing streak.

The Marlins have been led offensively by a pair of middle infielders in Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards in 2026, who have a 143 and 145 wRC+, respectively. Like the Nats, the Marlins lineup is extremely young, with none of their usual starting 9 hitters being over the age of 28. On the pitching side, they are led by a mix of former top prospects, journeymen, and a former Cy Young winner, and the result has been a respectable 4.09 ERA on the year as a club.

Friday – 7:10 PM EST

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin (3-1, 2.27 ERA)

MIA: LHP Robby Snelling (Major League Debut)

Despite throwing 6 innings and allowing 0 earned runs last time out, Griffin earned the loss due to some unearned runs in the first inning and the Nats’ offense failing to get going. He’s been a monster for the Nats every 5 days, and will look to keep it going against a young Marlins lineup.

Robby Snelling, one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in baseball, will make his major league debut tonight against the Nats, a left-handed heavy lineup. Acquired from the Padres for reliever Tanner Scott in 2024, Snelling had a 1.86 ERA in Triple-A this season and will now get his first crack at the big leagues.

Saturday – 4:10 PM EST

WSH: Zack Littell (1-4, 7.24 ERA)

MIA: RHP Janson Junk (2-3, 2.82 ERA)

Littell was effective in his last outing after PJ Poulin opened the game, throwing 3 2/3 innings of 1-run ball. The best the Nats can hope for out of Littell is to get through the order twice unscathed, before handing it off to Mitchell Parker to pitch the bulk of the innings.

A 22nd-rounder in 2017 by the Yankees, Junk has turned himself into an effective starter in Miami, with a 4.17 ERA in 21 outings in 2025 and a 2.82 ERA in 7 starts in 2026. He’s allowed just 1 run in his last 3 starts, so the Nats are catching him in the middle of a hot stretch.

Sunday – 12:15 PM EST

WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.15 ERA)

MIA: RHP Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 4.01 ERA)

After back-to-back 10-strikeout starts against the Braves and Mets, Cavalli took a step back in his outing against the Twins, allowing 3 runs over 4 innings and walking more batters than he struck out. When Cavalli has his command, he’s a tough guy to get runs off, so hopefully he has a feel for his stuff on Sunday in Miami.

Alcantara’s season has been a mixed bag so far, as he’s been brilliant in 6 of his 8 starts, going deep in the outings and limiting damage, but in 2 of them, he has allowed 7 runs, including last time out against the Orioles. Hopefully, the Nats get the bad version of Alcantara on Sunday and can drop a 7-spot of their own.

Could the Cubs bolster the rotation by trading for Freddy Peralta?

The Cubs’ starting rotation has actually done pretty well in 2026, considering they lost Cade Horton for the season after two starts, and now are missing Matthew Boyd with an injury for the second time this year (and Boyd has a 6.00 ERA in five starts in 2026).

The team’s 3.77 starting pitcher ERA ranks seventh among all teams, which is really pretty good considering the injuries. Colin Rea and Javier Assad have done a good job as fill-ins, and Ben Brown will get a chance at a start tonight.

Clearly, Jed Hoyer will be looking for starting pitching help going forward, particularly as we approach the trade deadline. But that’s two months away and most teams aren’t going to trade a quality starter in early May.

One starter who might become available somewhat soon is Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta.

The Mets are off to a terrible start, currently tied with the Giants for MLB’s worst record at 14-23. They’ve had injury issues and some of the changes they made in the offseason simply haven’t worked. They stand 11.5 games behind the first-place Braves just 37 games into the season.

Would the Mets trade Peralta now? Possibly not; there have been teams that started this poorly who have made the postseason, though it seems unlikely. The Mets lost 12 in a row last month, including being swept by the Cubs, and no team that has had that long a losing streak has ever made the postseason. So maybe they’d be open to a trade now, instead of waiting until the deadline.

Peralta is a pending free agent who turns 30 next month. He’s been consistently good throughout his career and has been so this year as well, entering Friday’s action with a 3.12 ERA and 1.200 WHIP, with just four home runs allowed in 43.1 innings. He’s made at least 30 starts each of the last three years and seems durable. And, Cubs manager Craig Counsell managed Peralta for six years in Milwaukee, so he’s quite familiar with the right-hander.

Also, Peralta is making $8 million this year, so he could likely easily fit into Hoyer’s budget.

Now, what would the Cubs have to give the Mets to get Peralta?

This article suggests sending Kevin Alcántara and Jefferson Rojas to New York in exchange for the veteran right-hander. Those two currently rank third and fourth in MLB Pipeline’s ranking of Cubs prospects. This past offseason, Josh ranked them fifth and third.

So that’s a fairly high price for a rental pitcher, though it’s not impossible that the Cubs could keep Peralta past this year.

Would you make that trade?

Tim Hill is another bullpen bet the Yankees got right

Apr 4, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Tim Hill (41) delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the sixth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

This past offseason, many Yankees fans grew anxious as Cody Bellinger remained unsigned and the club’s only outside addition appeared to be Ryan Weathers. These were the days before the “run it back Yankees” became the reality surrounding the roster construction for 2026. Even after signing Bellinger and making a few additional moves, many felt the team did not do enough to go all in for a chance to finally capitalize on Aaron Judge’s championship window.

Most of the frustration centered around the team not addressing third base, finding a right-handed backup catcher, or fortifying the bullpen. That bullpen, mind you, had just lost the previous off-season’s prized closer acquisition from the Brewers in Devin Williams, as well as Luke Weaver, the former Cardinals castoff turned bullpen staple of the past few seasons, as they both headed across town to Queens.

How could a team with championship aspirations seemingly not address losing two high-leverage relievers from the previous year? Before the season, Brian Cashman pointed toward last summer’s trade deadline acquisitions of David Bednar and Camilo Doval as part of the organization’s reasoning for staying relatively quiet. Sure, those high-profile trade acquisitions bring traditional high-octane stuff to the late innings, but there’s another player who has been even more instrumental in stabilizing the Yankee ‘pen, and his name is Tim Hill.

Hill’s performance during the 2026 season has been nothing short of spectacular and has helped buoy the bullpen while the unit struggled through parts of early April. Now just over a month into the season, the Yankees entered Thursday with the sixth-best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.35 across 129 innings pitched.

Of those 129 innings, Hill has pitched 14.1 of them in 16 games, entering Thursday. So far on the season the thirty-six-year-old journeyman has posted a 1.26 ERA and had allowed zero of his nine inherited runners to score (he finally let an inherited runner cross home plate against the Rangers on Thursday afternoon). This is the type of performance that is expected from big ticket relievers, not a cheap, soft tossing lefty. So how has Hill been so successful?

Since he was released in 2024 by the White Sox and claimed by the Yankees, Hill has seen the organization’s pitching lab significantly alter his pitch usage. Prior to joining the Yankees, Hill threw his four-seam fastball roughly 30 percent of the time while in Kansas City and closer to 50 percent on average in San Diego. That number dropped to 13.7 percent last season and fell even further to just 8.1 percent in 2026.

Instead, the Yankees have leaned heavily into Hill’s sinker. This season, the pitch accounts for more than 80 percent of his offerings. Before arriving in New York, the highest sinker usage rate of Hill’s career came in 2022 with the Padres when he threw it 54.5 percent of the time.

Besides throwing his sinker more, Hill has upped the usage of his slider. After trending downward for several seasons, the pitch now accounts for 11.9 percent of his arsenal. The slider is also coming in roughly eight miles per hour slower than it did last season, giving it more sweeping action and further disrupting hitters’ timing.

Hill also does an excellent job keeping his release point on all three of these pitches very consistent, making them even more deceptive to the hitter. The results have been dramatic. Hill currently has the highest groundball rate of his career at 79.1 percent.

Opponents have been hitting the ball hard off Hill with an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph. For reference, the league average is 87.7 mph. But much of that contact comes in the form of sharply hit groundballs rather than dangerous lift. That can be seen in Hill’s tiny 2.3 percent barrel rate and -9.2 launch angle.

The Yankees have increasingly emphasized the sinker and deception, and several pitchers on the staff have reaped the rewards. Hill’s profile fits that mold perfectly. While he is not the modern-day flamethrower, he offers a change of pace from a unique arm slot and has become a trusted option out of the pen for Aaron Boone.

In addition to posting incredible numbers, Hill was also the recipient of the 2025 Tony Conigliaro Award from the Boston Red Sox. The award recognizes a big leaguer who “has overcome adversity through the attributes of spirit, determination, and courage.”

Adversity has followed Hill throughout much of his life. He lost his father to colon cancer during his sophomore year of high school in 2007. Then, after being selected in the 2014 MLB Draft, Hill was diagnosed with Lynch syndrome and Stage 3 colon cancer during spring training in 2015 at just 25 years old. He underwent surgery, radiation, and eight months of chemotherapy while facing a projected five-year survival rate between 65 and 75 percent.

I am sure Tim Hill’s baseball career has not gone exactly as he once scripted it in his dreams. It certainly has not followed a conventional path, but it has produced another story that simply makes you want to cheer for the guy.

As the summer unfolds, I expect the Yankees to do their due diligence on every available high-leverage relief pitcher ahead of the trade deadline. As we all know, you can never have too much pitching, and Cashman has never been afraid to make a move if he believes the value is right. However, the efforts and success of players like Hill allow the organization to approach those decisions deliberately rather than out of necessity or panic as it continues chasing championship number 28.

Opposition research: Mickey Moniak

Apr 23, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies left fielder Mickey Moniak (22) hits a solo home run in the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

What if before the season, I told you that a former Phillie would be leading the National League in OPS come the second week of May? You’d probably assume that Nick Castellanos was having some sort of revenge season out in San Diego, right?

Well, don’t worry. Nicky is batting .183 and playing his usual bad brand of defense out West. However, Mickey Moniak is absolutely crushing it in Colorado.

Most of you probably know the story: The Phillies had the top pick of the 2016 draft, and there were no obvious standout prospects to take. So, they took a chance on a high school outfielder, with hopes that he could develop major league power and defense. He didn’t amaze anyone in the minors, but slowly progressed through the system, and made his major league debut in 2020.

He struggled in the minors but looked poised to start the 2022 season as the Phillies’ centerfielder before suffering an injury on the last day of Spring Training. He couldn’t regain his hitting form after returning from the injury and the Phillies shipped him to the Angels in exchange for Noah Syndergaard.

He underwhelmed in Los Angeles and didn’t make the team out of Spring Training in 2025. The Rockies, who were barely even attempting to field a major league team decided to take a chance on him.

In 2025, despite being regarded as one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, his bat showed some life in the thin Colorado air, and he hit 24 home runs. He’s shown even more life this season, with a .318/.367/.700 slash line.

Obviously, he’s unlikely to continue hitting at this pace, and he’s definitely benefitting from playing in Colorado, since his road OPS is almost .500 points lower than it is at Coors Field. But for now, it’s a nice story to see him finally experience success after being such a disappointment.

The funny thing is: If you told Phillies’ management back in 2016 that Moniak might be in Philadelphia for the 2026 All-Star Game, they’d probably be thrilled.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The 2012 Phillies’ first visit to Marlins Park ended with them getting swept. The three losing pitchers were Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton. Nobody was able to name two of the three.

This week’s question: On August 23, 1993, the Rockies earned their second ever win in Philadelphia, behind a home run by what former Phillie?

Non-Phillies thought

It didn’t take long for the optimism around the Sixers and Flyers to fade. The Flyers look completely outmatched by the Carolina Hurricane, and the Sixers have spent the first two games of their series against the Knicks looking like they used up all their energy against the Celtics. (To be fair, a 48-hour turnaround after an intense game seven is kind of tough.)

When the Sixers vs. Knicks series began, I had optimism that the Sixers’ home games wouldn’t be taken over by Knicks fans like they were in 2024. The fans were mostly checked out on that year’s team, while people seemed pumped about this year’s team after beating the Celtics. But falling into an 0-2 hole likely changed the math, and unfortunately, I expect there to be a very healthy contingent of Knicks fans in the building.

Additional thought about the series

A home series against the Rockies should allow the Phillies to continue their recent run of hot play. The key to the turnaround has been that the starting pitching – Andrew Painter aside – has met expectations lately.

The Rockies have a mediocre offense – 16th in runs scored overall, 21st in road games – so the Phillies’ starting trio of Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez should be able to turn in strong outings.

I’m less certain about the Phillies’ bullpen. Jhoan Duran looked shaky in his return from the IL, but the hope is that was just him getting readjusted. The bigger question is do they have a late inning lefthanded reliever they can depend on? With both Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks struggling mightily, who do they call upon if they have to face Moniak in the late innings? (There’s something I didn’t expect to be writing before the season.) Will Tim Mayza become their primary setup lefty? (Something else I didn’t expect to write.)

Someone needs to assert themselves, because I don’t want to spend the entire season holding my breath in the seventh and eighth innings.

Friday Bantering: Jays Notes

A blue jay gulps down a meal at Irondequoit Bay Park West in Irondequoit Thursday, May 7, 2026. | Shawn Dowd/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Happy Friday.

The Jays are back home for a series against the Angels. It almost can’t be worse than the last series. I think the team has let Tropicana Field get into their heads.

Maybe all the batters should move back in the batter’s box:

Petriello talks about it here.

There is talk about having more time to watch a pitch. I don’t know, a foot of extra time on a pitch 132 (+/-) feet per second is not all that much extra time. But I do think a change when things aren’t working is a good idea. It gets the mind thinking about something else. Perhaps moving up a foot would have don’t the same thing.

There was always going to be adjustments. I try not to judge a player in the first month or so of being in a new place. I think it takes a bit for the brain to realize that it is the same game they’ve always played.

There are always ones that like to be at the front of the box, to ‘get breaking balls before they break’ and ones that stand at the back to ‘give more time to see the ball’. I think whatever a player is comfortable doing is the right thing.


Addison Barger is going to be activated soon, I keep stalling so I can add whoever is set out, but I have a birthday party to go to (I have a tennis friend who has turned 90, he still plays, still runs, still hits the ball good. I tell him I want to be him when I grow up. He still mentally sharp, as well. We should all be so lucky).

It will be good to have Addison back. I don’t think he’s going to be the savior or anything like that but it is a step towards the roster we hoped to see this year.

As soon as I hit publish, they will make an announcement.


You think baseball players know the rules? It is possible he didn’t see the third baseman touch the bag before throwing home, but he seemed bewildered when the umpire was explaining it to him.

Yankees vs Brewers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game

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The New York Yankees open a new series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night with Max Fried on the mound against Jacob Misiorowski, one of the most electric young arms in the National League, and they're doing it in their eighth game in eight days.

This is a genuinely elite pitching matchup on both sides, and my handicap reflects that. 

Read all about it in my Brewers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 8, 2026.

Who will win Yankees vs Brewers today: Yankees moneyline (-124)


Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski is elite, we know that, but we also know how reliant he is on the strikeout. Both his whiff rate and strikeout rate are basically as good as it gets, ranking in the 99th percentile of the sport. 

What's most intriguing about this matchup, though, is that this New York Yankees team isn't the one of old with an enormous strikeout rate. They enter this game with the third-lowest swing rate and fourth-lowest chase rate in the league.

That discipline forces Misiorowski to throw every pitch for strikes rather than trying to chase hitters out of the zone. He can do that, but against a lineup this patient, the margin for error shrinks considerably.

A pitcher reliant on swing-and-miss who can't manufacture chases has to be perfect in the zone, and that is a lot to ask over seven innings. Max Fried, on the other side, removes any concern about the lineup needing to score big. 

Covers COVERS INTEL:The Brewers' 52% groundball rate is the highest in baseball by a significant margin. The gap between them and the second-highest is as large as the gap between 2nd and 20th. 

Yankees vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-124)

Not much of a reason to go against the general consensus. 

I'm a believer that the Yankees will eventually grind the Miz down and score enough, but it's not like he won't have a strong performance. There are plenty of likely strikeout victims for him towards the middle to the bottom of the order, even if it is an offense that has become much more well-rounded. 

On the other side, Fried has hardly taken a step wrong this season, and I expect this to continue. His 94th percentile barrel rate helps him remain pretty fullproof against the crooked innings that can sink innings.

More importantly, though, a 52% groundball rate is less than ideal against a pitcher who has made his career out of inducing soft contact.

Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 14-12, +2.60 units
  • Over/Under bets: 16-11, +6.72 units

Yankees vs Brewers odds

  • Moneyline: Yankees -142 | Brewers +129
  • Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+127) | Brewers +1.5 (-147)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 (-103) | Under 7 (-117)

Yankees vs Brewers trend

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 45 games at home (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers.

How to watch Yankees vs Brewers and game info

LocationAmerican Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
DateFriday, May 8, 2026
First pitch7:40 p.m. ET
TVYES, Brewers.TV
Yankees starting pitcherMax Fried 
(4-1, 2.39 ERA)
Brewers starting pitcherJacob Misiorowski
(2-2, 2.84 ERA)

Yankees vs Brewers latest injuries

Yankees vs Brewers weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Red Sox vs. Rays prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 8

Tonight is Game 2 of the four-game series at Fenway Park between the Tampa Bay Rays (25-12) and the Boston Red Sox (16-22).

 
The Rays won their ninth game in their last ten last night with an 8-4 win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Junior Caminero and Chandler Simpson drove in a combined five runs to pace the attack and Hunter Bigge picked up his first win of the season in relief of Griffin Jax. The Sox did touch up Tampa for four runs. It was the first time since April 21 the Rays allowed more than three runs to an opponent. Boston scored their runs on six singles and a double. Jake Bennett allowed four runs over five innings to take the loss. The Sox have now lost three straight at home.

 
Tampa Bay will hand the ball today to Jesse Scholtens, who carries a 3-1 record and 3.18 ERA. Scholtens has allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts covering 7.1 innings, suggesting the 32-year-old hurler may be finding his way. Offensively, the Rays continue to shine with a .257 team batting average and consistent run production, led by Junior Caminero’s 10 home runs and Yandy Díaz’s consistent bat (.323 average).

Boston counters with Connelly Early, a left-hander who has shown flashes of promise but oddly enough has struggled at Fenway, entering tonight 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA at home. The Red Sox offense has not helped, hitting .237 as a team for the season.

 

Tonight, and the rest of the weekend is about Boston trying to get into the race in the American League East while the Rays look to keep pace with the Yankees at the top of that division.

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game Details and How to Watch: Red Sox vs. Rays

  • Date: Friday, May 8, 2026
  • Time: 7:10PM EST
  • Site: Fenway Park
  • City: Boston, MA
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Rays.TV, NESN

 

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

 

The Latest Odds: Red Sox vs. Rays

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Boston Red Sox (-136), Tampa Bay Rays (+113)
  • Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+153), Rays +1.5 (-186)
  • Total: 8.5 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers: Red Sox vs. Rays

Pitching matchup for May 8:

  • Red Sox: Connelly Early
    Season Totals: 35.2 IP, 2-2, 3.79 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 31K, 17 BB
  • Rays: Jesse Scholtens
    Season Totals: 22.2 IP, 3-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 17K, 6 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Red Sox vs. Rays

  • Yandy Diaz is 4-12 over his last games
  • Chandler Simpson has hit in 4 straight (6-14) and 8 of his last 9 games (11-34)
  • Connor Wong is not playing every day but has hit safely in each of his last 3 games
  • Jarren Duran is 1-12 over his last 3 games

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Red Sox vs. Rays

  • The Rays are 11-8 on the road this season
  • The Red Sox are 6-11 at home this season
  • The Rays are 24-13 on the Run Line this season
  • The Red Sox are 13-25 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 19 times in Boston games this season (19-18-1)
  • The OVER has cashed 17 times in Rays’ games this season (17-17-3)

 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

 

Expert picks & predictions: Red Sox vs. Rays

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Red Sox and the Rays:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Rays on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Rays on the Run Line
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total OVER 8.5 runs

 

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