Category: Baseball

The 2013 New York Yankees finished the season 85-77, good for third place in the American League East and on the outside looking in at the playoffs when the regular season concluded. Their “leaderboard” is a veritable who’s who of guys who certainly played in the major leagues. 36-year-old’s Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay, 34-year-old Vernon Wells, and -1.5 bWAR (seriously!) Eduardo Núñez are among the names you’d see penciled into the lineup most nights.

Catcher, like much of the Yankee lineup, was an offensive black hole. Chris Stewart, Austin Romine, and John Ryan Murphy combined to provide basically nothing after Francisco Cervelli went down with a broken hand in late April. Cervelli, who was off to a torrid start at the plate (141 OPS+) later hurt himself rehabbing while also getting swept up in the Biogenesis brouhaha, missing the remainder of the season due to injury and suspension. As 2014 approached, it’s fair to say catcher was a position in flux.

Brian McCann
Signing Date: December 3, 2013
Contract: 5 years, $85 million

It’s funny how time plays tricks on memory. When I sat down to write this, I remembered the Yankees signing McCann after Robinson Canó jilted them for more years and more money with the Seattle Mariners. In my mind’s eye, McCann was part of a pivot that involved Hall of Famer Carlos Beltrán and former BoSox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

That was not the case. The Yankees signed McCann and Ellsbury before knowing for certain they were not going to be able to retain their all-world second baseman. That said, they definitely had reason to be pessimistic Robbie would remain in pinstripes after word leaked in mid-November that he wanted a 10-year deal worth $310 million.

McCann entered free agency with an excellent pedigree (albeit while also being a bit of a hardass at times). A seven-time All-Star and winner of five Silver Slugger Awards behind the plate with the Atlanta Braves, McCann put up a 117 OPS+ with 176 bombs in his first nine seasons from 2005-13, making for a remarkably consistent 20-plus homer bat. Meanwhile, as he matured behind the plate, he gained a reputation as one of baseball’s finest pitch framers.

The combination of offensive prowess, defensive skill, and leadership was enough that McCann was expected to command serious money in free agency. Indeed, some expected him to break nine figures with at least a six-year commitment from whoever signed him.

Ultimately, McCann did not quite hit those figures. But he certainly did well for himself, getting $85 million over five years from the Yankees.

On the surface, it looked like the Yankees had answer their question at catcher for the next half-decade. Even then though, there were warning signs.

McCann entered free agency having played the least number of games over the previous two seasons since he became a full-time player. Worse, while he bounced back in 2013, his bat disappeared in 2012.

In late October, Benjamin Hoffman warned in the New York Times about the potential downside of a McCann signing, writing that “given his position, his recent decline in durability and an expected drop in production as he enters his 30s, he appears to be the most likely of this off-season’s big-ticket free agents to end up becoming an albatross for the team that signs him.”

Hoffman’s prediction did not quite come to pass, though McCann never approached his previous offensive heights with the Yankees (or after his tenure in New York, for that matter). His bat hovered around league average for his three seasons in pinstripes. Combined with his defense and positional value, by FanGraphs WAR he compiled roughly 8.0 fWAR over his three seasons in the Bronx. And he did have his moments.

Meanwhile, the Yankees continued to flirt with mediocrity. In McCann’s three seasons in the Bronx, the club never won more than 87 games, which they managed in 2015. That year, they made the playoffs only to lose the American League Wild Card Game to soon-to-be mortal enemies the Houston Astros. Four pitchers combined to shut the Yankees out 3-0. For his part, McCann went 0-for-4 in his only playoff game as a Yankee.

2016 saw the electrifying emergence of Gary Sánchez, who clubbed 20 home runs and finished second in AL Rookie of Year voting despite only playing 53 games. With “The Kraken” in the Bronx, McCann realized his time as the Yankees’ main catcher had come to an end and he asked for a trade.

The Yankee front office accommodated his request, and during the offseason dealt McCann to the aforementioned Astros for a pair of pitching prospects, Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman. Because no good dead goes unpunished, McCann came back to haunt the Yankees.

Through the first six games of the 2017 ALCS, Yankee pitching kept their former backstop in check. But in Game 7, back in Houston, McCann broke the Yankees’ backs. Already trailing 2-0 after an Evan Gattis home run the previous inning and a Jose Altuve dinger earlier in the fifth, McCann came to the plate, facing Tommy Kahnle, who’d replaced starter CC Sabathia. Needing one out to escape the frame and with McCann down to his final strike, Kahnle instead surrendered a two-run double that extended the Astros lead to 4-0. On a night when Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. combined to throw a three-hit shutout, that was more than enough.

For whatever it’s worth, McCann was not thrilled with the Astros’ infamous sign-stealing scheme and tried to push back on it with fellow veteran and former Yankees teammate Carlos Beltrán. Longtime friend and catcher Evan Gattis also noted McCann’s discomfort:

“I could tell it was eating him up,” Gattis said. “He didn’t like it one bit. … He’s played so long, and he just understands what it takes to get to the big leagues, and he’s got a lot of respect for ballplayers. You could just tell (he was opposed to the cheating).”

This does not fully exonerate McCann, as he still benefitted from the whole endeavor and it’s not as though his 2017 at-bats were completely devoid of “bangs.” How angry should you be about McCann being on those 2017 Astros? That’s really a question that you can only answer yoruself.

As it stood, McCann won his first and only World Series that year and played two more seasons before retiring, fittingly, as an Atlanta Brave. In his first year on the ballot for the Hall of Fame, McCann received only seven votes (1.8%), falling off future ballots.

But make no mistake. He was a Hall of Very Good catcher and the Yankees have made far worse free agent signings over the years.

References

Brian McCann. Baseball-Reference.

Hoch, Bryan. “Yanks deal McCann to Astros for pitching prospects.” MLB. November 17, 2016.

Hoffman, Benjamin. “With Gritty Slugger Brian McCann, It’s Buyer Beware.” New York Times. October 31, 2013.

Jaffe, Jay. “JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Brian McCann.” FanGraphs. December 20, 2024.

Waldstein, David. “How Yanks May Proceed, Cano or No Cano.” New York Times. December 4, 2013.

Waldstein, David. “Yankees Set to Resume Cano Negotiations, With Sides Still Far Apart.” New York Times. November 18, 2013.

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See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.

Tenth is the series. Today we look at the Cubs’ young center fielder.

Peter Henry Crow-Armstrong, the first-round pick of the New York Mets in 2020, came on like gangbusters in the first half of 2025. His act flagged badly toward the end, but he turned in a marvelous season that raises expectations and anxieties about his 2026 campaign.

He needs to improve his in-zone contact some, stop swinging at so many bad pitches, and use his considerable bat speed and hand-eye coordination to make better-quality contact. Fans hope that he can learn a little more patience at the plate, and all of the above point to him not getting himself out. Travis Sawchik had a good piece about that, also appearing in Cub Tracks.

The guy’s already a star. Really, given the hype and the hope, he was a star before he got to the majors, and his skills and considerable charisma have served him well so far. He can do things nobody else can.

Some consistency would be infinitely desirable. Maybe a couple of Ian Happ specials rather than a whole second half? Hmm. A season of that and the same numbers or better, and we’re talking about a superstar.

His stellar defense props up his WAR numbers. BBRef has him at 8.1 bWAR, with PCA having amassed 6.0 of that total in 2025, and Fangraphs submits a 7.8 fWAR lifetime total, with 5.4 coming last year, but it isn’t all about his defense. PCA turned in a spectacular 2025. Most projections have him sacrificing some power and maintaining his RBI total, with the aggregate something like 25 HR/85+ RBI in their sights.

Certainly we could all live with that, without the post All-Star Game dropoff.

I’ve long thought that he was just tired, and could use a little more rest. Maybe Kevin Alcántara or Dylan Carlson, depending on who wins that competition, could spell Pete against tough lefties or once a week, and give him a breather, and the Cubs won’t lose so much at the plate or defensively.

Let’s hope for a happier ending.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is already getting to work in Mesa, Arizona 🔥 pic.twitter.com/pNQB7xcbAH

— Jacob Zanolla (@jacobzanolla) February 3, 2026

The Royals announced they have brought back catcher Luke Maile on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Maile appeared in 25 games with the Royals last year, hitting .244/.346/.356 with one home run in 54 plate appearances.

The 34-year-old has played in parts of ten seasons in the big leagues with the Rays, Blue Jays, Brewers, Guardians, and Reds. In 458 career MLB games, he is a lifetime. 209/.277/.320 hitter. Maile is a very solid defensive backstop who has thrown out nearly 30 percent of base-stealing attempts in his career. Last year he excelled in pitch framing metrics.

The Royals had previously signed MLB veteran Jorge Alfaro, who has produced more with the bat over his career, to a minor league deal. The team will likely have Salvador Perez split time behind the plate with rookie Carter Jensen most of the time. But the team may carry a third catcher for the days Salvy is at first base or DH, as they often did last year when Maile was on the team.

Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is more than happy to welcome another top-tier left-hander to the team's starting rotation, even if newly signed free agent Framber Valdez will be making a little more money this season than the two-time reigning AL Cy Young award winner.

"Dinners on you," Skubal said in a post on his Instagram story shortly after the Valdez signed his three-year, $115 million deal with the Tigers.

Skubal is in for a pretty sizable payday himself, with his salary arbitration hearing decision expected to be resolved this week.  He's seeking $32 million for the upcoming season while the Tigers have countered at $19 million.

The signing gives Detroit arguably the best 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation in the American League. But there's still a question of how long they'll be on the roster together.

Skubal is a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, and the money the Tigers paid to land Valdez could be a sign they expect him to take over the No. 1 starter role if Skubal leaves.

For now though, Tigers fans can relish the idea of both pitchers carrying the team toward a possible World Series appearance.

And the two lefties can look forward to an enjoyable − and likely very expensive − meal together.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tigers' Tarik Skubal jokes about Framber Valdez's big new contract

Unlike in movies, in real life, the hero doesn’t always triumph over adversity in the end, and even when he does, it might not happen as neatly as one would have hoped to build the perfect storyline. No matter how you slice it, Clayton Kershaw’s postseason career has been one of primarily heartbreak, but we mustn’t let it overshadow its finest moments, of which there were plenty, definitely far more than he gets credit for. Here’s an intro to a series of articles that’ll break down specific memorable Kershaw performances in the postseason that might not debunk his narrative of woes in October but at least add some perspective to it.

On a very basic level, all those shortcomings became irrelevant the moment Kershaw won his first ring in 2020 might reasonably be pointed out. The future Hall of Famer also later went on to be involved in two other championship teams, with minimal roles — injured in 2024, and coming out of the bullpen last season. As fulfilling as those rings likely were, Kershaw, the individual, won them at a different stage in his career. By the time he reached the mountain top for the first time, however impactful and crucial he still was in 2020, the narrative had basically been set in stone, and he was no longer at or particularly near the height of his powers.

Sadly, missing a few postseasons at his prime as the Dodgers as an organization had yet to truly take off, particularly so once the new ownership group really established itself, Kershaw still got plenty of opportunities to be the leading man on a postseason team. Time and time again, those opportunities with rays of hope on different levels ultimately met the same bitter end, oftentimes with the southpaw undone by the lack of support that became pivotal to World Series wins in later years. Certain remarks and a more meticulous evaluation aren’t the specialty of the common fan, and thus, the simplest explanation is the commonly accepted one — Kershaw couldn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Time of year	IP	ERA	FIP	PA/HR	BB rate	K rate
Regular season	2855 1/3	2.53	2.85	48.0	6.3%	27.1%
Postseason	196 2/3	4.62	3.98	25.1	6.7%	26.5%

Anyone taking a journey back through those playoff runs of the middle to late 2010s will quickly recognize a second theme emerging right next to that of eventual eliminations. Without fail and with teams that in no way resembled the current powerhouses the Dodgers can routinely send out there for a postseason run, Kershaw found a way to deliver magnificent outings that rank alongside the very best in the 21st century, not just among Dodger starters but all of baseball.

Another overlooked element is one to which Kershaw was one of the pioneers, alongside the likes of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, that of prolonged exposure to the postseason setting due to an ever-expanding postseason bracket. Out of the three, Kershaw is easily the one who suffered the most in the playoffs, which is justifiable given that this narrative is in no way built around a house of cards, something we’ve already established. Still, it’s no wonder all three of these Hall of Fame starters have postseason ERAs significantly over their regular-season numbers.

As was the case with Kershaw and the other two, those numbers overshadow many instances in which these elite pitchers delivered at the highest possible level on the biggest stage against the toughest opponents. Here we’ll comb through some of the greatest Kershaw postseason performances and the context around those games.

Quiet as kept, FanGraphs has released their updated MLB Playoff Odds for the upcoming 2026 season. As of right now with the offseason beginning to transition into the ever-optimistic days of spring training, FanGraphs’ projection model feels like the Atlanta Braves should have very good reason to feel optimistic heading into the regular season.

While FanGraphs figures that the American League is shaping up to be a big ol’ Battle Royale between four AL East teams (Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles), the Tigers and the Mariners, the picture in the NL figures to be a bit clearer. As of right now, while the Dodgers are the obvious favorites to not just win the National League but retain their World Series crown yet again, the projection model figures that the Braves have the best shot at dethroning the Southern California juggernaut.

FanGraphs is currently projecting that the Braves will win 92 games (I’m rounding up and will do so for the rest of the article, when necessary) and lose 71 — giving them a 47 percent chance to reclaim the NL East title, a 39 percent chance to get a bye, a 40 percent shot at a wild card berth and then an 87 percent shot at simply making the Postseason. All that culminates with FanGraphs’ model giving the Braves an 11 percent shot at winning the World Series — good for second-best odds in not just the NL but in all of baseball right now. Now granted, the Dodgers are currently standing head-and-shoulders over the field with a projected 27 percent shot at winning the World Series but still, Atlanta’s odds are nothing to sneeze at.

It also goes to show that the model appears to be very impressed with the job that the Braves have done to fortify their bench in order to withstand the losses of both Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy for the initial portion of the season. It also goes to show the faith that the model has in Atlanta’s star players performing like stars going forward. ZiPS is currently projecting Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin to lead the way in terms of batter WAR and they also figure that Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach should serve as a pretty formidable top three for Atlanta’s rotation when it comes to pitcher WAR.

Now, as the saying goes: You can’t play the game on a spreadsheet. The Braves have had some rosy projections for a few years now and they’ve managed to come well short of those projections for the past couple of seasons. The team still has to go out there on the diamond and get the job done and they’ll of course have to deal with two very tough divisional foes in the form of the Mets (projected for 90 wins) and the Phillies (projected for 87). This certainly won’t be a cakewalk for the Braves and ultimately it’ll just come down to this team living up to the back of their respective baseball cards. We all know that this core group of players is capable of doing great things on the field — we’ve seen it over the years. Again, they’ve just got to get the job done.

Either way, the Braves once again have some high expectations heading into the upcoming season. Here’s hoping that they’ll meet those expectations so we can have ourselves another fun season around here. We’ll see what happens!

FanGraphs has given us some projections as to how the 2026 season will go for the Phillies. One projection is optimistic about their chances at winning a third straight division title, while the other thinks that run ends at two. So as not to be accused of being hostile to those with a more pessimistic outlook on the team, I’ll discuss both.

Dan Szymborski annually creates his ZiPS projections, which evaluates a full range of outcomes for each player on each team, and using that, runs a million simulations of the season. ZiPS seems to like the Phillies, predicting a 91-win season and a first-place finish in the East.

Here’s a look at the NL East projections from FanGraphs with their ZiPS Projections.

The #Phillies are:
-projected to win the NL East
-Have a 71.5% chance to make playoffs. -Have a 7.6% chance to win the WS which is second to the Dodgers (18.2%) pic.twitter.com/7lau2E3hd3

— Cory Nidoh (@Cory_Nidoh) January 29, 2026

Some of the key ZiPS predictions for individual Phillies:

• Trea Turner will lead the team in WAR, mostly because the defensive improvements of 2025 will stick.
• Bryce Harper will once again not be elite, hitting 29 home runs and playing poorly on defense.
• Justin Crawford will have a decent rookie season with 1.6 WAR.
• Zack Wheeler makes 21 starts, and is solid, if not spectacular with a 3.43 ERA.
• Andrew Painter makes 24 starts with a 4.80 ERA.

It’s somewhat confusing that ZiPS likes the Phillies’ chances considering it doesn’t seem to be especially optimistic about any of their individual players’ seasons – except perhaps for Adolis Garcia (a projected 28 home runs) and J.T. Realmuto (.742 OPS with 15 home runs).

FanGraphs has also released their playoff odds for 2026, and these are less positive towards the Phillies’ chances. They expect the Phillies to fall to third place in the East behind the Braves and Mets. They give the Phillies an 18.9% chance of winning the division, and a 65.4% chance of making the playoffs. Those playoff chances are fourth best in the National League behind the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers (99.1%!).

MLB Playoff Odds – 2026 Season – FanGraphs pic.twitter.com/a0MD2bIqxZ

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) February 2, 2026

It makes sense that they’re so bullish on the Braves. That team has been ravaged by injuries the past two seasons, and if everyone on the roster is healthy and playing close to capabilities, they’ve probably got the most talent, particularly in the starting rotation.

Nor is it a major surprise that the Mets are ahead of them. Their lineup is expected to hit a lot of home runs, and they have a strong pitching rotation with the addition of Freddy Peralta. (Although Fangraphs doesn’t think Peralta will have that good of a year.)

If this depresses you, it would be helpful to look at Fangraph’s projections for the 2025 season. They thought the Phillies had just a 21.1% chance of winning the division, while giving the Braves a 64.2% chance. And in 2024, they thought the Braves had an 88.8% of winning the East. (Like I said, the Braves have suffered a lot of misfortune in recent years, not that I’m complaining.)

I suspect that most Phillies fans will treat these projections the way many Americans treat information these days: Take whatever matches up with your pre-existing notions, and treat that as valid, while largely ignoring whatever doesn’t. If you already believed the Phillies would be a playoff team, then this helps to reinforce that belief. If you think the Phillies are on the decline and they’re going to fall behind the Mets and Braves, well, this provides some ammunition for you as well!

Eight months from now, we’ll know which side was correct.

In an ongoing Central Florida tradition dating back nearly two decades, the Tampa Bay Rays unveiled another round of ballpark renderings Feb. 5, terming the site on the Hillsborough College campus in Tampa as their "forever home" on social media.

Naturally, there are bottomless hoops to run through and billions of dollars in necessary funding to get to forever.

The site on Dale Mabry Boulevard is certainly desirable, perched just north of the New York Yankees' spring training facility (and temporary Rays home field in 2025) and across the boulevard from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Raymond James Stadium.

The Rays pulled out of their most recent foray - a redevelopment of the Gas Plant District near Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg - after 2024 hurricanes and other developments dulled their enthusiasm. 

The Rays estimate the 31,000-seat stadium project will cost $2.3 billion, and new owner Patrick Zalupski has offered to cover roughly half of that cost along with overruns. That leaves more than $1.5 billion to be financed, leaving the Rays' quixotic search for a new home more or less where it's always been.

There may be a few new guns on their side, however.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a longtime friend of Zalupski, appeared at a Tuesday press conference with Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred and intoned that "baseball belongs in Tampa Bay." DeSantis appointed Zalupski to the University of Florida board of trustees in 2023.

That opens the window, perhaps, for partial state funding of the project, something previous Rays efforts largely lacked as they aimed for sites in Tampa and St. Petersburg while mining Hillsborough and Pinellas counties for public funds.

“State money, in terms of baseball, is not something that we’ve done. But I think when you look at (Hillsborough College), the reimagining, some of the buildings need massive amounts of deferred maintenance,” DeSantis said Tuesday. “I’d rather put that money to the reimagined campus than trying to rehab some of the old buildings.”

The Rays' project would entail the stadium, a rehabbing of Hillsborough College buildings and a mixed-use development popular with major league franchises to maximize profit. The Rays and Hillsborough College's board of trustees approved a non-binding memorandum of understanding Jan. 20.

DeSantis raised the specter of competition from a neighboring metropolitan area - "Orlando really, really wants this," he said - while Manfred, an old hand at the Rays' stadium efforts who wants the franchise settled and expansion to occur before he retires at the end of this decade, was publicly bullish.

“The level of support for the concept they’re dealing with here is really, really high compared to some of the other efforts,” he told the Tampa Bay Times.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Rays new stadium renderings revealed: See Tampa Bay proposed ballpark

John Wathan, who served as a player, coach, manager, broadcaster, and front office executive in Kansas City from 1971 to 2022, has been elected into the Royals Hall of Fame.

“After 52 years in baseball and 47 with the Royals, I can honestly say I have always bled Royal blue,” Wathan said in a statement. “This is the ultimate honor for living as a Royal all those years. I couldn’t begin to thank everyone involved on this journey with me. It has been a real privilege to be with one organization that long. It is a rare feat and one that I have been so proud of for all these years.”

Wathan was drafted by the Royals out of the University of San Diego and made his MLB debut in 1976. He quickly became a valuable catcher known for his rare speed. His 36 stolen bases in 1982 are still the single-season MLB record for most steals by a catcher. He helped win a pennant in 1980, hitting .305 and playing all over the field, earning MVP votes. He won a title in 1985, his last season in the big leagues. He retired after ten seasons, having hit .262/.318/.343 with 21 home runs and 105 steals in 860 games. His nickname was “Duke” given to him because of his terrific impersonation of actor John Wayne.

John Wathan:
Catcher
First-baseman
Outfielder
Coach
Manager
Broadcaster
Scout
Roving Instructor
Special Assistant of Player Development

And now, Royals Hall of Famer. pic.twitter.com/sEkOkmTuSs

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) February 5, 2026

After retiring, Wathan joined the coaching staff the next year, and took over as manager in 1987. He led the team to 92 wins in 1989, the third-most wins in a single season in club history. He managed the team until he was dismissed midway through the 1991 season, with a career record of 287-270 (.515).

After a brief stint coaching and managing the Angels, Wathan joined the Royals broadcasting team in 1996. He later joined the scouting department and became an advisor in the front office. His son Dusty was a catcher with the Royals in 2002 and is now a coach with the Phillies. His other son, Derek, also played in the Royals organization.

Wathan will be the 32nd player inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame and he will be honored with a ceremony this summer at a date to be announced.

Wathan was not one of the nine names on the ballot presented last December, but under the voting rules, “At the discretion of the Royals Hall of Fame Executive Board a separate Veterans Committee vote will consider the candidacy of non-player personnel and alumni who previously received Royals Hall of Fame Voting (Regular Phase) votes but are no longer eligible for election in that manner.”

It’s starting to look like none of the parties will have a choice.

The Astros have a logjam in the infield, that isn’t news.

They have been open to discussions on both Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker, that also isn’t news.

However, we are now 6 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training and the Astros still don’t have an answer for their logjam other than the idea of keeping both players on the main roster and having them find ways to share time and try to get them as many ABs as possible.

Neither player is going to be happy with that kind of arrangement. They may not have a choice.

Astros GM Dana Brown doesn’t want to move Paredes, as he likes Paredes hitter profile (especially at Daikin Park). He also doesn’t want to eat a bunch of money for Christian Walker to play somewhere else and get nothing in return (previous reports have stated there has been little interest in Walker on the trade market).

Where does that leave the team and the players? In a big holding pattern.

Brown has to do what is in the best interest of the franchise, and that isn’t giving away a strong offensive profile player nor is it writing checks for guys not to play here.

Walker led the team in HR and RBI last season, and is a Gold Glove caliber defender. He posted a second half OPS of .799, which was the best on the team for those who played the entire second half. It’s not like Walker stinks, or is unplayable. He had a bad first half (possibly influenced by an oblique injury suffered late in Spring Training), he isn’t a bad player.

That bad first half, however, has his value at it’s lowest on the trade market, making his contract appear bloated to other teams (and maybe the Astros as well). It is not farfetched to think a return to form is possible or that his second half can be translated to a full season.

A timeshare is different than a platoon. Platoons are based on righty/lefty batters and matchups. A timeshare doesn’t necessarily include those elements, it’s simply there aren’t enough spots in the lineup and both guys need ABs.

A timeshare of Walker and Paredes is not necessarily going to have good results, though it could. Maybe the extra time off helps Walker stay stronger as an older player (though that didn’t seem to be an issue last season) and maybe the extra time off (especially early in the season) allows Paredes and the team to make sure he is fully recovered from the torn hamstring he suffered last season that he valiantly tried to play through at the end of the year.

The Astros also have other players on the infield who have had injury issues. Jose Altuve will be 36 and has had injury issues in the past, had an injury he played through at the end of the year, and manager Joe Espada lamented the fact he had to play Altuve 155 games last season. Altuve does need some more time off, to keep him both healthy and productive.

Jeremy Pena suffered a fractured rib from a HBP and an oblique strain that cost him over a month of the season, and if the oblique had not happened at the very end of the year could have easily resulted in more missed time.

I’m sure I don’t have to tell an Astros fan (or Twins fan or Mets fan or Giants fan) about Carlos Correa’s injury history.

It is very possible that the Astros have enough injuries that they need to play musical chairs with their lineup and having both Walker and Paredes to fill those chairs would be paramount in overcoming those injuries and maintaining a viable offense.

Still, it is a situation neither player will want.

Dana Brown may find the trade market to open up during Spring Training as teams deal with injuries or performances they deem untenable. This could on through late in Spring Training. It could go on through the season. Brown can’t force the issue and make a below value move just to make a move, though.

For now, everyone just has to wait.

Let me preface this by saying there’s still a little bit of offseason left. The Red Sox could turn around at any moment, make a stunning trade for a big stick, and instantly shift the narrative. But for now, the offseason is beginning to solidify, and it doesn’t look good for anybody hoping the front office would improve the middle of the lineup.

Around baseball, we’ve seen the following moves in just the first few days of February: The Red Sox sent Jordan Hicks packing in a salary dump to the White Sox, Eugenio Suarez signed back with the Reds, the Mariners acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals in a three team deal with the Rays, Framber Valdez signed a $115 million contract with the Tigers (an absolutely wild thing for Detroit to do mere hours after taking Tarik Skubal to arbitration), and the Red Sox agreed to a one -year deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa for $6 million.

So to summarize this action from my perspective: The Red Sox cleared some payroll space with Hicks, the last big power bat went off the free agent board, the last big starting pitching prize went off the free agent board, the Cardinals moved the last infielder they’re likely to move this winter, and the Red Sox used the money they saved on Hicks for 2026 and gave it to Kiner-Falefa.

With that, there are no more big ticket items left in free agency, and opposing teams are increasingly unlikely to to pursue elaborate deals with each passing day. The window is still open for more trades of course, but they will become increasingly difficult to pull off as we approach spring training and the World Baseball Classic.

So it raises the question: When did the front office accept that the lineup was going to look like this? When did they become tolerant of this much missing thump? I ask not in anger, but in genuine curiosity.

My anger already peaked back when they let Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso go to the Mid Atlantic, couldn’t align with Arizona to get a deal done for Ketel Marte, and allowed negations with Alex Bregman to fall apart to the point he went to the Cubs. Once those things happened, I knew I wasn’t going to be happy with any of the obvious solutions left on the table.

Quick aside on that topic. Earlier this week Dan asked our Over The Monster (OTM) community if the Red Sox should have pursued Eugenio Suarez, and I gotta say, I’m thrilled they didn’t! In addition to his obnoxious strikeout numbers, Suarez also manages to ground into an above average number of double plays while providing well below average baserunning and defense. The only thing he does well is hit for power, and with his 35th birthday coming up later this year, that’s liable to disappear at any moment. This is a bullet dodged as far as I’m concerned!

So to be honest, I’ve mostly spent the last couple of weeks waiting and seeing where the chips land so we can get on with things. And now that the concrete appears to be drying, I’m left wondering exactly how this winter played out inside the walls of Fenway. Specifically, when did the decision makers abandon the quest for a big bat?

Did they go into the offseason knowing the main focus would be on pitching and defense, and then just spin fiction in December when they talked about giving a boost to the offense? Did they completely misread the market for sluggers like Schwarber and Alonso and decide the contracts weren’t worth it? Did they consider Willson Contreras, a guy who has never hit 25 home runs in a season, an acceptable pivot to check the right-handed power box? Did they think Bregman would take their offer all the way until the end and then were left without a backup plan when he didn’t?

There are so many compelling questions about the timeline here and they all impact my faith in the front office to build a championship team going forward. Oddly, I’d almost feel better if they lied and had already decided going into the winter that they were building a team completely centered around pitching and defense. In this world, their top priority was always run prevention, and they were fully accepting they might go into spring with a lineup that would still need improvement as the season progressed, particularly with the uncertainty of Triston Casas and the question marks surrounding the performance of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell in 2026.

Of course, this flies directly in the face of the comments they made back at the end of 2025, but this organization is known for spewing BS on a consistent basis, so it almost makes the most sense if they were just lying again here.

The other extreme is, of course, that they have absolutely no idea what they’re doing, but I’m less inclined to believe that because, despite some serious question marks surrounding the options they’ve let slide off the board, this roster is actually really, really solid. Incomplete? Sure! Pieces that still don’t fit like a fresh puzzle? Yep! A very annoying lack of power? Yes, again.

But if you can get beyond all that, and I was only able to do so after spending the whole month of January seething, their pitching and defense appears to be the real deal. Perhaps as good as we’ve seen from a Red Sox squad. Here’s their current starting pitching depth in the general order I’d expect them to be deployed for now:

• Garrett Crochet
• Ranger Suarez
• Sonny Gray
• Brayan Bello
• Johan Oviedo
• Connelly Early
• Payton Tolle
• Kutter Crawford
• Kyle Harrison
• Patrick Sandoval
• Tanner Houck

And that’s before you add in the fact they have Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman closing things out in the back half of the bullpen.

Add in the very underwhelming signing of Kiner-Falefa (at least from an offensive perspective), and they can also run a defense out there that includes Rafaela, Anthony and Abreu in the outfield, and Story, Mayer, Kiner-Falefa and Contreras in the infield. There’s not a single subpar glove in that bunch with the majority of them being above average (and in some cases well above average) fielders.

In other words, this is a legitimate run prevention unit! They’re going to win a bunch of tight, low scoring games, even if they don’t have thump in the middle of the order. Can you imagine if the Sox would have just communicated this better? I’m not here to say people would be happy with the Kiner-Falefa signing, but he’d look much more like one of the last missing pieces to the puzzle if the product promised was specifically focused on the defensive side of the ball.

I’m still really irked by the underwhelming nature of the middle of this lineup no matter how you stack the pieces, but I also think they could add a bat midseason, which is a heck of a lot easier to do than add a big arm.

So I’ll ask one more time, when did the Red Sox decide a big bat wasn’t the priority?

We are now entering the stretch where pretty much every player on the list has legitimate MLB potential because of their skill set. With the exclusion of Luke Sinnard who, one author had a bit higher on their list, there was unanimous agreement on who the top 12 prospects in the organization are. Youth, and projectable tools reign supreme for the remainder of our list as we dig into some of the best talent the organization has.

18-13 | 19-24 | 25-30 | Honorable Mentions

12. Garrett Baumann – RHP

How he got to the Braves: 2023 4th round pick (126th overall)

Baumann may have one of the highest potentials when it comes to arms in Atlanta’s system, solely based on size and athleticism. Coming off a solid 2024 season in which he posted an ERA of 3.18 across 20 appearances (19 starts) between Augusta and Rome, the 2025 season would hopefully provide a bit of a launch pad for the 6’8, 245-pound righty.

In 2025, Baumann began his season with Rome and showed that he is capable of continuing to progress across seasons. In 23 starts for the Emperors, the 21-year-old tossed 113.2 innings and struck out 108 batters while issuing 31 walks on the year. The main downside when it came to Baumann’s 2025 campaign, is that he was tagged for 10 long balls in his 23 starts.

In all likelihood, Baumann will begin the 2026 season with Columbus where he’ll look to continue to cut down on the walks while working on his secondary pitches – which has been the biggest knock against him since he was drafted. However, it is possible he gets a start or two at Rome to ramp up before joining the Clingstones.

It’s no secret the Atlanta front office doesn’t really care about the typical way of doing things when it comes to promoting players who perform. That isn’t to say that Baumann would be a lock to join the big league club this season, but the potential is there. Overall, Baumann should reasonably hope to join Gwinnett by season’s end with Atlanta in his line of vision for the 2027 season.

11. Jhancarlos Lara – RHP

How he got to the Braves: 2021 international free agent

After catapulting onto the scene with a monster second half in 2023, Jhancarlos Lara has consistently found himself in the conversation surrounding the most talented pitchers in the Braves system. At the time featuring a fastball that sat in the mid-90’s and could touch triple digits, Lara has only added strength and velocity and now regularly sits in the upper-90’s and has touched 102. Lara pairs that blazing fastball without a sharp, wipeout slider in the low-to-mid 90’s which has made year-over-year strides and become one of the most effective pitches at producing whiffs in all of minor league baseball. That pairing made him a force to be reckoned with at the minor league level, but after Lara failed to develop a consistent third pitch or make significant progress with his command the Braves settled on making him a reliever long term. He still got time as a starter in 2025 in order to get him more reps on the mound, but ultimately Lara’s future is in the bullpen where he has star closer potential with his two 70 grade offerings. Lara’s biggest red flag is his abysmal command, which backed up in 2025 and saw him walk nearly 20% of the batters he faced despite otherwise stellar numbers. Lara’s struggles have largely come in his ability to repeat his release point, leading to bouts of him spraying pitches with no real feel for where the ball will end up, but mechanical adjustments in the second half of the season had him moving in the right direction. For a stretch in the second half of the season he was the most dominant reliever at the Triple-A level, posting a 2.29 ERA/2.28 FIP with a strikeout rate of 42.7% and a more respectable 12% walk rate. He had trouble when shifted back into a starting role at the end of the season, but that should not reflect too poorly on his overall projections in the bullpen. Lara has a chance to win a major league job in 2026, and could be the anchor to a bullpen if he can find consistency closer to what he showed in 2024. He is a risky prospect even for a reliever, but given his ceiling and dominant pitch mix he has the upside of a top five closer in baseball.

10. Alex Lodise – SS

How he got to the Braves: 2025 2nd round pick (60th overall)

The Braves drafted Alex Lodise in the second out of Florida State even though many thought he would go somewhere late in the first round after winning the Dick Howser Award. After hitting .394/.462/.705 with 17 homers for FSU, Lodise went straight to Rome and hit .252/.294/.398 with 10 doubles, a triple, and a homer plus five walks to 42 strikeouts in his 109 plate appearances. Lodise showed some real pop in his bat, though it was more for the extra base variety than over the fence, however his pre-draft questions about his strikeouts also really showed up in a big way in the small sample size. Lodise is a guy some were hoping could move fast based on his ACC production, though his Rome stint showed he may need a bit more time to work on his hit tool to cut down on the strikeouts. Lodise projects to be a below average to potentially average hitter with average to a tick above power and average speed. Defensively he may or may not be able to stick at shortstop, but would be able to slide over to second base if necessary. His spring will likely determine if he opens the year back in Rome or moves up to Columbus, but if he can get the hit tool to progress he could move quickly to Atlanta. His ceiling is an above average middle infielder with solid power for the position.

9. John Gil – SS

How he got to the Braves: 2023 international free agent

While Luis Guanipa came into the 2025 season as the most exciting prospect for Augusta, it was ultimately John Gil who stole the show and became the GreenJackets most consistent offensive threat. It took about a month and a half and the passing of his 19th birthday for Gil to find his stride at the top of the order, but once he did he put an emphatic stamp on his prospect status with more walks than strikeouts over his final 70 games and a .146 isolated power that 47% higher than the Carolina League average. Gil is still a raw product, but his ability to recognize the strike zone, recognize spin, and get his barrel to contact is light years ahead of his age. Gil also made a significant jump in his footwork and throwing accuracy, helping him take advantage of his elite speed and settle in as a reliable shortstop who can project as an average or solid average defender at the position on an everyday basis. If Gil is forced off of the position given the arrival of high draft picks Tate Southisene and Alex Lodise, he also has double plus speed and a good first step that should allow him to transition to center field if needed. Gil also made the transition to Double-A to finish out the season, and though his number took a dramatic hit in the one series he played there, he didn’t seem overwhelmed and was able to adjust well enough to the much higher level of competition. Gil’s biggest limitation to his ceiling is a lack of elite top end exit velocity, which will likely cap his power at maturity around average. His swing plane doesn’t generate much lift and he’s likely to see continued adjustments to his mechanics as he progresses, with most of his extra base hit production at the moment coming gap-to-gap. He is still a bit aggressive in the zone at this stage and has a tendency to swing on top of the ball and hit too many ground balls. Still, he is going to start 2026 as a 19 year old at High-A coming off of a strong season of production, and is one of the system’s candidates to have a breakout and get himself into top 100 contention. Gil has the upside of an everyday shortstop with a solid all-around game and an approach that takes him another step above his raw hitting ability.

8. Luke Sinnard – RHP

How he got to the Braves: 2024 3rd round pick (99th overall)

Coming in at a monstrous 6’8” 250+ pounds, Luke Sinnard is one of the highest risers on this list after a sensational 2025 campaign. A third round pick out of Indiana, Luke appeared in 16 total games last year across Low-A Augusta, and the Rome Emperors where he had a cumulative 2.86 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 10.7 K/9, and 3.36 BB/9 rate. He ticked every box you want to see in a pitcher including generating whiffs with multiple pitches, locating his fastball in the upper third, maintained velocity deep into games and seemingly never got frazzled while on the mound. Because his season started late, the Braves sent him to the Arizona Fall League to get more innings, and in the notoriously hitter friendly league, he had a 4.60 ERA (which was one of the lower starter ERAs in the league), while maintaining his strikeout rate of 11.5 per 9, and his walk rate of 3.6 per 9.

Sinnard got it done by showcasing five pitches last season – a four-seam fastball with nearly 10” of arm side-run around 96 MPH, a two-seam fastball with 14” of arm-side run sitting in the mid-90s, a developing curveball in the lower 80s, a 2800 RPM slider in the high-80s, and a strong splitter in the low-80s that sat at less than 750 RPM. With his size, and pitch mix it’s a been of a wonder why he isn’t more highly ranked because his stuff screams MLB even with the curveball that still needs some work to it. Similarly to Schwellenbach last season, one of the last things he has to learn is to trust his stuff a little more, and not pitch so much inside the zone. With his movement as long as the ball starts in the zone, he will have hitters flailing while they try to figure out which pitch is coming next. Luke projects as a middle of the rotation arm with strong upside due to his overall size, strength, and ability to repeat his mechanics. He is a name to watch for in Atlanta, should injuries to pitchers begin to accrue.

7. Briggs McKenzie – LHP

How he got to the Braves: 2025 4th round pick (127th overall)

After saving money on the first day of the draft the Braves had a plenty of bonus pool to spread around on day two, and Briggs McKenzie was the huge grab that changed the algebra on their strategy. It took $3,000,000 to sign McKenzie away from a commitment to LSU, but it gave the Braves a third notable pick in the top five rounds, and a chance for their development staff to make progress on a hugely talented arm. McKenzie currently operates with a four-seam, curveball, and changeup arsenal, and the secondary offerings are advanced for a player his age. His curveball leads the pack with huge break and plus potential, and though like many prep pitchers his changeup didn’t get huge usage in high school it gives him a potentially above-average third offering that is ready to be used in games right now. The lingering concern is around his fastball potential. McKenzie’s fastball sits below-average and has trouble staying in the low-90’s late into games, and while he does have room to add weight and strength his frame isn’t built to support much gain. To be a major league pitcher he is going to need to do a better job of holding velocity while also improving his base velocity, though McKenzie has the arm speed and enough projectability to give evaluators confidence he can at least settle on average velocity. McKenzie brings lean athleticism and should project to average or better command at his peak, though currently his arm action tends to get long and he will need mechanical refinement to improve his consistency. McKenzie has a relatively high floor for a prep pitcher with mid-rotation upside given he has a true out pitch with his curveball, a solid command profile, and an already quality arsenal depth.

‘25 Briggs McKenzie LHP (NC)

Repeatable & rhythmic, giving LHH fits

4S: 91-92 (2564)
SL: 77-79 (2911)
SNK: 90-92 (2670)
CH: 86 (2079)#PBAAG24 | @PrepBaseballNCpic.twitter.com/U2RjxQqDwH

— Shooter Hunt (@ShooterHunt) September 14, 2024

Cole Young is here for a reason.

Young made his MLB debut on May 31, 2025, after a carousel of misbegotten second basemen struggled to hold down the position… for the eighth year in a row. The Mariners haven’t found competence at second base since Robinson Canó was suspended in May 2018. It’s not been for a lack of effort or creativity, as they’ve trotted out prospects and veterans and platoons and Donovan Walton. But the “2Bs who were not to be” (sorry) posted a combined .651 OPS from 2018 through 2024 — dead last in MLB.

Young, unfortunately, carried the torch. He posted a .607 OPS (81 wRC+) in 257 plate appearances. His playing time evaporated as the season got late and outcomes mattered more. He didn’t play in the postseason.

It’s unclear what Young’s role will be in 2026. The Mariners on Monday added Brendan Donovan to the infield depth chart. Donovan plays several positions, but the one he’s played the most (and the best) is second base. It’s possible he’ll play third base instead, as the trade that brought him here coincidentally opened a hole there. But tip-top prospect Colt Emerson is expected to tryout for third in Spring Training, pitting Young in a staring contest with his precocious mirror.

Don’t expect Young to blink first, though. There were still several positives to take from his rookie year. First and foremost, this pitch:

I’m rarely stunned by baseball, but that stunned me. Young hit a middle-middle fastball from Kumar Rocker 456 feet into the second deck at T-Mobile Park. It was the longest home run hit at T-Mobile Park in 2025 and one of the 10 longest in Seattle in the Statcast Era.

Young hit the ball 114.1 mph, which places him in the top 10% by max velocity. That’s crucial. As Davy Andrews pointed out for Fangraphs (in a post about a young Victor Robles), rookie max exit velocity is one of the strongest predictors of future performance. Here’s how he summarized the results (in a separate post worth reading):

… for rookies with at least 200 balls in play, wRC+ was less predictive of their future performance than max exit velocity. That blew my mind. Knowing just one measurement, the velocity of a player’s hardest-hit ball, was more useful than knowing about their overall performance through their entire rookie season.

I think Young’s blast was a bit anomalous, even for the concept of “max” exit velocity. His Prospect Savant profile shows solid but less spectacular peak power data, and Fangraphs offers a similar report. Though it’s worth considering this quote from Director of Player Development Justin Toole in an interview with David Laurila where he says all the things you’d expect someone to say about Young and then slips in, “I think Cole’s power at times will surprise you.” So one person wasn’t stunned.

It won’t be necessary for Young to hit the ball that hard all the time. Nearly a quarter of the balls he put in play last year were in the air to pull side, which was solidly above average. Maybe it’s obvious, but its good to hit the ball in the air because that’s a perquisite for getting it over the fence, and its good to the ball to the pull side because that’s where the fence is the closest. Cal Raleigh lead the league by that stat in 2025, if further endorsement is needed.

That’s a tremendously exciting premise. Young’s ascendant tool in the minor leagues wasn’t his power but “contact and hitability,” in the words of Toole. Basically, he had a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio. That seemed to transfer over in his rookie season , with a 18.3% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate. He whiffed a bit more than expected (just about the median), but his knowledge of the strike zone was as advertised. He looks like a legitimate “guy who would have batted second 30 years ago” …. while still having the modern “anybody can hit 20 home runs” dressings. That gives him a few believable paths to success. The industry seems to agree: :

It’s not just the Mariners who like Young, either. One rival executive describes Young as “the league model darling right now,” pointing out that analytically based projection systems value him more highly than scouts do.

I’m curious to see what if any adjustments Young makes this offseason. An 81 wRC+ with interesting peripherals is still an 81 wRC+. Often it seemed he was swinging too big and throwing his timing off because of it. The data potentially supports that theory. He got torched by fastballs, swung at pitches very deep in the zone, and swung at full strength more often than most (as the plot below shows). Maybe it’s just about telling him to chill. Or maybe the approach is fine and the timing will eventually catch up. I don’t expect major intervention, regardless.

It’s harder to find nice things to say about the glove. It was bad. Terrible, even. He posted -9 OAA in less than half a season, making him one of the worst infielders in MLB on a rate basis. He especially struggled going to his right and throwing back across his body. His arm was the third weakest among second baseman; it lacked accuracy, or maybe conviction. He just looked kinda overwhelmed out there.

The extent to which Young struggled is surprising more than anything. Fangraphs scouted him well above average in the field heading into 2025. While public scouting isn’t fully prescient, OOPSY projection system creator Jordan Rosenblum points out Fangraphs is generally pretty good at estimating defensive ability. I just don’t think scouts would have graded him as positively as they did if they were seeing the types of plays in the video above. To me that implies an aberration, or maybe an injury. And conveniently, there were reports that he injured his throwing arm early in the season. Maybe his defense will have healed come Spring.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence Young survived the offseason in Seattle, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence they’ve left some playing time up for grabs. His rookie season did not go well, but he’s tremendously talented with a nearly unlimited ceiling. As the Mariners search for a second baseman approaches a decade, perhaps Young is meant to be.

It’s our fourth day of counting down the Cubs top prospects and now we’re getting to the really interesting part.

6. Kane Kepley. OF. B:L, T:L. DOB: 2/14/2004. 5’8”, 180. Drafted 2nd round (2025) North Carolina.

Kane Kepley had one of the best starts to a professional career of any 2025 draftee. After the Cubs grabbed the Tar Heel speedy outfielder in the second round, they assigned him straight to Low-A Myrtle Beach. In 28 games there, he hit .299/.481/.433 with two home runs and 16 stolen bases in a challenging hitting environment. He also played a terrific center field.

Kepley is an undersized player with a sharp eye at the plate and good contact rates. He rarely chases bad pitches and has good bat speed through the zone to make hard contact. Kepley likes to spray the ball to all fields. His swing is fairly level, but he does manage to get some lift to the pull side that gives him a little power. He’s a terrific baserunner with plus speed. Defensively, Kepley covers a lot of ground in center field.

The biggest knock on Kepley is his size. At just 5’8”, he’s used to getting overlooked. He had to walk on at Liberty for two years before he transferred to North Carolina. Being overlooked may be one reason that Kepley is one of those guys whose motor is seemingly always running. 

But for all of Kepley’s considerable skills, his size is an issue. While he does have a little pull-side power, his overall power projection is definitely below average for a starting major league outfielder. He’s already built like Atom Ant (and if anyone wants to give him that nickname, be my guest) so there really isn’t any room on his frame to add any more strength. His arm probably isn’t up to playing right field either, which limits his versatility. 

Kepley is most likely heading to High-A South Bend this spring, where he will look to build on his impressive start to his career. While a fourth outfielder is the more likely outcome, Kepley’s ceiling is a starting major league center fielder and old school leadoff hitter who puts the ball in play, gets on base, steals bases and provides good defense in center field. Only a lack of power will prevent him from having a shot at being a true star.

Here’s Kepley’s first professional home run. [VIDEO]

7. Jonathon Long. 1B. B:R. T:R. DOB: 1/20/2002. 5’11”, 210. Drafted 9th round (2023) Long Beach State.

I could probably just cut and paste what I wrote about Long last year. This year, Long made his  Triple-A debut, spent the entire season in Iowa and just continued to hit, pretty much every day. He played 140 games in 2025 and put up a line of .305/.404/.479 with 20 home runs. He lead the International League with 157 hits. For that, Long was named and IL All-Star and the Cubs’ Minor League Player of the Year. 

Long has some good bat-to-ball skills and a patient eye at the plate. He rarely swings at bad pitches and can make hard contact to all fields. That patience can sometimes drift into passivity, but he kept his strikeout rate at 19.1 percent in Triple-A last year. His walk rate of 13 percent is also good. 

There were a few warning signs on Long’s output last year. His fly ball rate dropped in Triple-A last year, replaced by a lot more ground balls. And while he can make good contact against better velocity, he does tend to drive fastballs to right and right-center field. Going the other way is good, but there is some concern that he might struggle against elite velocity in the major leagues. 

Those notes are nitpicking. More seriously, Long is a right-handed first baseman with good but not elite power. The standards for a first-division starter with that profile are sky-high and Long’s ceiling may not go up that far. The Cubs have tried him in left field and third base, but he projects to be well below average at both positions. He’s also blocked at first base by Michael Busch. That may make his biggest value to the Cubs is as a tradable asset. 

Long has a very good chance of being a solid everyday first baseman with good on-base skills, decent defense and above-average power. He may not produce enough that good teams won’t be looking to upgrade on him regularly, however. But what he can produce is still pretty good. A lot of pennants have been lost because a team had someone worse than Long in an everyday role. 

Here’s a collection of highlights from Long in 2025.

8. Pedro Ramirez. 2B/3B. B:S, T:R. DOB: 04/01/2004. 5’9”, 165. International free agent (2021) Venezuela.

Ramirez is one Cubs minor leaguer who increased his stock over the past year. Moving up a level to Knoxville, Ramirez managed to both increase his power and contact rates. As a 21-year-old in Double-A, he hit .280/.346/.381 with 8 home runs win 129 games. The Cubs were impressed enough with Ramirez to add him to the 40-man roster over the winter.

Despite moving up a level in 2025, Ramirez cut his strikeout percentage from 18.1 percent down to 15.1 with no change in his walk rates. He’s an aggressive hitter at the plate, but his excellent contact rates keeps his strikeout totals down. Ramirez is excellent at making contact and generally hard contact. As a switch-hitter, Ramirez hits for a much higher batting average right-handed (.316 vs. .269 last year) but he has much more power from the left side. All eight of his home runs last year were against right-handed pitching and all four of his home runs in 2024 were against righties as well.

The increase in Ramirez’s power in 2025 was a pleasant development. Against right-handers, at least, it now projects out to be at least average. (Against left-handers is a different story.) I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramirez hit double-digit home runs in Iowa this year. 

Defensively, Ramirez is above-average at both second and third base. He won a minor league Gold Glove at third base last year, although I maintain he’s more good than great. (Happy to be wrong on that point.) His arm is easily strong enough to handle third. He doesn’t really have the range to play shortstop on anything more than an fill-iin basis, unfortunately, and that limits his utility as a potential backup infielder. 

Ramirez is a very quick baserunner who stole 28 bases last year. That he was caught ten times indicates that he needs to learn to pick his spots better, but there’s no reason to think that Ramirez couldn’t be a threat on the bases in the major leagues.

Ramirez should start the season in Iowa and his status on the 40-man roster means he could make his major-league debut as soon as there is an opening in the infield. He projects out to be an average starting second or third baseman in the majors (I like his bat better at second) for a good team or an excellent bench player. 

Here is Ramirez hitting a walkoff home run for the Smokies. [VIDEO]

9. Cole Mathis 1B/3B. B:R, T:R. DOB: 7/25/2003. 6’1, 210”. Drafted 2nd round (2024), College of Charleston.

Mathis came into the 2025 season with high expectations and left it with a lot of question marks. Coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2024, Mathis was expected to DH for most of the season and then work his way back into the field by August or so. Instead, Mathis played just 29 games as a designated hitter until the Cubs shut him down with soreness in his reconstructed elbow. He did return in time for the Arizona Fall League and played both first and third base there. 

It’s hard to judge what Mathis did last year for the Pelicans because it was so short and he was playing hurt. Still, he showed some real power promise with 13 extra base hits (nine doubles, one triple and three home runs) out of 23 total hits. His batting average of .215 may look disappointing, but that seems to be the result of an unnaturally-low batting average on balls in play of .263 that presumably would have evened out with more at-bats. Mathis’ exit velocities were down from what they were in college, presumably because of his elbow issues. They were still good.

In the AFL, Mathis hit .280/.439/.400 with two home runs in 16 games. It’s hard to read much into AFL stats because of the unusual pro-offense environment of that league, but Mathis did seem to be swinging the bat much more freely. He was also playing defense, which is a good sign even though it was too small of a sample to get any real read of how he was out there.

Mathis shows a good eye at the plate, striking out 22.7 percent of the time and walking 13.3 percent. For someone just making his pro debut and coming off an injury, that’s not bad. At College of Charleston, he showed elite bat-to-ball skills and there’s reason to believe that he’ll return to that with more health and experience. His on-base percentage of .336 and his slugging percentage of .402 were quite good for the offensively-challenged Carolina League and Pelican Park. 

Defensively, the Cubs are putting a lot of eggs in the basket that Mathis can play third base. He definitely has the arm for the position as he was a two-way player at Charleston and probably could have been drafted as a pitcher. But he’s mostly played first base in the field where he’s decent and most observers think he’d be challenged at third base. Mathis’ bat projects out to be average or better at third base but probably average or below at first, so showing he can handle the hot corner is crucial to his value.

Mathis is still pretty much what he was when the Cubs drafted him in the second round in 2024. A hard-hitting corner infielder with an very good eye for the strike zone and plus bat-to-ball skills. He’s also capable of above-average to plus power at the major league level. But he’s also got to get healthy and find a defensive position before we really know what the Cubs have in Mathis. 

Here is Mathis hitting a home run in the Arizona Fall League this past October. [VIDEO]

10. Owen Ayers. C. B:S, T:R. DOB: 6/7/2001. 6’2”, 185. Drafted 19th round (2024) Marshall.

Ayers was already getting some attention with an improved second-season in Low-A Myrtle Beach last year, but a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League (.379/.539/.591) pushed him into the top 10. Even taking into account that he was facing a lot of poor pitching in a hitter-friendly environment, that was a strong showing in the AFL for someone who had never played above Low-A.

After struggling with the Pelicans in 2024 (albeit in just 18 games), Ayers returned to Low-A for 2025. That’s not encouraging for a player taken as a fifth-year senior, but he is a relatively new convert to catching, having not taken to the position full-time until his senior year at Marshall. He played 65 games before breaking his hand in July missing the rest of the season. Ayers’ overall line as a 24-year-old in Low-A, .238/.341/.420 doesn’t pop off the page, but he did hit .258/.371/.433 away from the cavern of Pelicans Park. He also made up for some lost time in the AFL.

Ayers is a switch-hitting catcher who makes consistent hard contact, at least from the left side of the plate. His power numbers are kept modest because his level swing doesn’t get a lot of lift on the ball, but average power potential is there if he can learn to put a little lift off the bat. He makes good swing decisions at the plate and is a relatively disciplined hitter. Ayers is a much better hitter from the left-side than the right, to the point where you wonder if he’d be better off giving up switch-hitting.

Ayers has a cannon behind the plate, but right now his inexperience at the position is hurting him. He’s got the size and tools to be an above-average defensive catcher with a plus arm, but right now he’s still struggling with the non-throwing parts of playing the position. I believe that’s mostly inexperience. There isn’t any physical reason he couldn’t improve, but you can never really tell how a player will handle the mental demands of catching. I’m optimistic that Ayers will improve, but you can never be sure. We should get more answers in South Bend this summer. 

Working against Ayers is that he’s awfully old for someone who hasn’t played above Low-A. But catchers often develop late because of the demands of the position, so the Cubs can afford to be patient. His upside is an average defensive catcher with a plus-plus arm who platoons with another catcher who can murder left-handers. His offensive ceiling is a .250 or so hitter who draws a fair number of walks and hits for average power. Since there’s really no such thing as a backup catcher in the majors anymore, that’s good enough to have a significant career if his defense develops like I believe it can.

Here’s a collection of highlights from the AFL this past year.

Tomorrow: The top five!

Any description of José Caballero’s playing style will probably include something along the lines of “pest” or “hate him on other teams, love him when he plays for your team.” Well, as of last year at the trade deadline, he’s on our team.

Looking to improve on the depth of the roster, the Yankees picked up Caballero last summer in a semi-rare in-division trade with the Rays, essentially switching dugouts in the middle of a game between the two teams. After a bad miscue in his Yankee debut, he ended up playing quite well for them. His hitting outpaced anything he had done in his MLB career to that point, and he even had a walk-off hit to officially clinch a playoff berth.

Going into 2026, the Yankees will now have Caballero to start the season, and — at least at the beginning of the year — he’ll have a bigger role. Can “Cabby” keep up his play or will the utility infielder end up being a utility infielder again?

2025 Statistics (overall): 126 games, 370 plate appearances, .236/.339/.347, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 97 wRC+, 6 OAA, 2.1 fWAR

2025 Statistics (with NYY): 40 games, 95 plate appearances, .266/.372/.456, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 134 wRC+, 2 OAA, 1.1 fWAR

2026 FanGraphs Depth Chart Projections: 73 games, 315 plate appearances, .221/.314/.336, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 87 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR

As mentioned, the Yankees are going to have to rely on Caballero a decent amount, at least to start 2026. After the Yankees were eliminated this past October, shortstop Anthony Volpe underwent shoulder surgery and will almost certainly be out to start the season. At least with the current roster makeup, that leaves Caballero as the most obvious option to start at that spot to open the season.

Considering how Volpe’s career has gone so far and how Caballero played after coming to the Bronx, there are people out there who will suggest that the move should be a full time change. You can make up your own minds on that one, but it’s unlikely that the Yankees will do that. Caballero could maybe force the Yankees’ hands by getting off to a hot start and keeping it up, but we shall see.

It’s fairly easy to throw cold water on that notion, mainly because Caballero’s play after coming to the Yankees — especially at the plate — is just way out of line with his career numbers. Even with the 134 wRC+ after the trade, his career number sits at 91. Sure, he put up decent hitting numbers in his minor league career, so maybe the coaching staff and playing in Yankee Stadium more unlocked something, but I think in the long run, he’s probably a below average hitter.

That being said, even if he doesn’t hit anywhere close to what he did in his 40 Yankees’ games so far, he can still very much be a useful player. His defensive numbers grade out well at almost every defensive position that he’s played. According to Outs Above Average, center field is the only position he’s been a negative defender at, and he’s only played a handful of innings there. Beyond that, he’s also proven to be a very capable base runner. His 49 stolen bases last year lead all of MLB. While that total is far from the ones Rickey Henderson used to put up when he was leading the league, that’s obviously still a good amount. Especially so considering that Caballero got less than 400 plate appearances last year, meaning that he wasn’t leading off and playing every game.

With his speed and flexibility in the field, Caballero pretty perfectly fits the “pest” category and should be a useful player for the 2026 Yankees, even if he’s not a star with the bat.

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See more of the Yankees Previews series here.