Category: Baseball

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The Seattle Mariners are -130 favorites to take the rubber match against the Detroit Tigers.

With a red-hot offense set to take on a struggling pitcher, my Tigers vs. Mariners predictions are backing the underdogs to come out on top in a relatively high-scoring affair.

Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 6.

Who will win Tigers vs Mariners today: Tigers moneyline (+110)

Bryce Miller has posted a 5.48 ERA over the last month, and it’s not entirely undeserved. He owns a 5.88 xFIP, has allowed 2.11 homers per nine innings, and struck out only 12.4% of opposing batters.

He is vulnerable heading into a difficult matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank first in wOBA, ISO, and OPS against righties the last 30 days.

Framber Valdez has posted a solid 3.51 xFIP during that span, and will make things difficult for a cold Seattle Mariners offense to keep up.

Back Detroit to -115.

COVERS INTEL:Valdez owns a sky-high 63.6 GB% rate over the last month, topping all of today's projected starters with room to spare.

Tigers vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 8.0 (-105)

Miller is allowing a lot of good contact, and he can’t keep the ball on the ground. Only Kohl Drake posted a higher FB% over the past 30 days among today’s projected starters.

The Tigers are hammering baseballs, ranking Top 8 in both FB% and HR/FB% over the same time frame. If Miller can't decrease his FB%, Detroit’s power will show up.

While Valdez’s elite ground-ball rate will make it hard for Seattle to hit for power, the Mariners do rank 13th in average and 12th in wOBA vs. lefties in the last 30 days.

Play the Over to -117.

Tigers vs Mariners weather

Temperatures are expected to flirt with 80 while winds blow east. Small boost to the bats.

Tigers vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Tigers +110 | Mariners -130
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)

Tigers vs Mariners trend

Detroit has won 17 of the last 25 road games (+9.05 units, 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mariners.

How to watch Tigers vs Mariners and game info

Tigers vs Mariners latest injuries

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In baseball circles, his reputation proceeds him.    Bob Nightengale has been covering America’s Past Time for USA Today since before Isaac Parades was even born.    We ask Bob three questions for the loyal followers exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes.   

Q: Do you feel the Astros did “enough ” at the deadline?    Was there a move you would’ve liked them to make?

A: I would have loved to see the Astros get another starting pitcher, but the asking price was exorbitant, as we saw. We’ll see if they can survive the final two months without another veteran starter. I do love the fact they obtained Daulton Varsho. He’s having a down year, but he’s an outstanding center fielder and is considered an ultimate gamer. He’ll fit in great in the Astros’ clubhouse with his fiery personality. 

Q: Who challenges the Astros the rest of the way in the west if you had to choose one?    Seattle or Texas?

A: I still think Seattle is the team you have to watch. Their starting rotation is nothing short of phenomenal. They just can’t seem to hit. If they ever put it together offensively, they’ll be awfully dangerous.

Q: Finally, Yordan.  If he continues this blistering pace the final two months, where would rank that in terms of individual performances the past quarter century?

A: Alvarez is producing the greatest single season since future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Cabrera was the last Triple Crown winner, hitting .330 with 44 homers and 139 RBI. Now, Alvarez could be joining the exclusive club. If Alvarez simply stays healthy and produces anything like he has the past four months, he will be the unanimous MVP winner.

With two teams scoring 12 or more, and the other two scoring three or fewer runs, it was a day of extremes across the Dodgers minor-league affiliates.

Player of the day

Setting the tone as the leadoff batter, Charles Davalan provided a three-hit performance in a 13-run effort for the Loons on the road. Outstanding offensively as of late, in particular, Davalan has recorded multiple hits in 11 of his last 12 appearances.

Coming around to score three times, Davalan also benefited from the success of those behind him, with five of the Loons’ first six hitters recording multiple hits. Elected player of the month for his success in July, Davalan is intent on not slowing down in August.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

In Bobby Miller’s return, the talented right-handed pitcher punched out three and allowed a solo shot as the Comets thrashed the Bees in a win with a 10-run gap between the two teams. All nine starting hitters for the Comets reached base safely and scored a run—Zach Ehrhard and Alex Fitzgerald led the team with three RBI each.

Because of Miller’s short outing, the Comets turned to Landon Knack for length, with the young right-hander providing 5.1 innings, also allowing just one run. Between the two of them, Knack and Miller allowed no free passes.

Double-A Tulsa

Committing nearly as many errors (3) as they had hits (4), the Drillers lost 5-2 to the Hooks with Logan Wagner hitting a solo shot in his first game in Double-A. This Wagner home run was only one of two extra-base hits for the visiting Drillers.

Only a day after he recorded three free passes, Josue De Paula had a more trying performance, striking out three times, although he was responsible for scoring one of the Drillers’ two runs.

After reaching 100 innings on the year by covering 5.1 frames in this game against the Hooks, Adam Serwinowski suffered his third loss in his last four starts, allowing three runs.

High-A Great Lakes

Leadoff hitter Charles Davalan is closing in on a .300 average with a three-for-six performance to lead a magnificent offensive effort as the Loons put 13 past the Dragons in a win on the road. Davalan, alongside Emil Morales, hit multi-run home runs.

You can’t get to a number quite as high as 13 without contributions from several different names, and near the bottom of the order, it was Jaron Elkins standing out. The center fielder recorded four RBI on a pair of hits. Lastly, Hyun-Seok Jang’s dominant outing is worthy of praise, striking out 10 in 5.1 innings.

Single-A Ontario

For eight innings, the Tower Buzzers held the Storm to zero runs, and while Jholbran Herder nearly cost them the game in the ninth, he stranded a pair to take the 3-2 win. This outstanding pitching performance from the Tower Buzzers staff included four scoreless innings out of the bullpen from Javier Bartolazzi.

The Tower Buzzers double play combination provided the scoring, with shortstop Joendry Vargas hitting a two-run triple in the first and a few innings later, second baseman Kellon Lindsey delivering a solo shot.

Transactions

The Tower Buzzers activated right-handed pitcher Cam Leiter off the injured list. Right-handed pitcher Bobby Miller began a rehab assignment with the Comets.

Wednesday’s scores

• Salt Lake 2, Oklahoma City 12
• Corpus Christi 5, Tulsa 2
• Dayton 5, Great Lakes 13
• Lake Elsinore 2, Ontario 3

Thursday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Jacob Frost) at Dayton (Stharlin Torres)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Zach Root) at Corpus Christi (Brett Gillis)
• 5:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Gavin Stone) at Salt Lake (TBD)
• 6:05 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) at Lake Elsinore (Lan-Hong Su)

Good morning friends, and happy Thursday!

Tempers flared last night as benches cleared in a 4-2 Mariners victory after both squads traded hit-by-pitches.

Importantly, it was also a comeback outing for Bryan Woo who tossed seven shutout innings. Is this the moment he finally reverts to ace form?

In Mariners news…

• Kate Preusser broke down the changes Taylor Ward made at the plate this year and what makes him such a good fit for this Mariners lineup.
• Carlos Vargas was seen throwing to live hitters yesterday as he continues to progress in his rehab.
• Every interaction between these two is a joy to witness.

Around the league…

• The Guardians called up top infield prospect Angel Genao to make his big league debut.
• Young Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing is out indefinitely after suffering a “slight” tear in his UCL.
• The Reds placed ace right-hander Hunter Greene on the injured list with soreness in his right elbow.
• Aaron Judge, who has been out since late May with a stress fracture in his rib, was cleared for “light activity” and says he is confident he will be back this season.
• The Pirates are releasing designated hitter Marcell Ozuna.
• Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski at Fangraphs ranked the prospects traded at the deadline.
• Baseball America updated their list of the top 100 prospects in baseball with the draft and deadline now passed. ($)
• Jen Ramos-Eisen profiled Brittany Apgar, a WPBL player who is learning to overcome her disability to compete at the top level.
• Man, baseball players are weird.

Hi there!

As you know, Thomas Smith is away on vacation.

To keep this feature going, I’m going to post simply the WPA numbers and plays of the game, and a poll so you can vote on your choice for Player of the Game. Thomas will update the Rizzo Award standings when he returns.

Game 115, Aug. 4: Cubs 7, Dodgers 6

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.317). 3-5, 2 HR, 2B, 4 RBI
• Hero: Shōta Imanaga (.130). 5 IP, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K
• Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.104). 1-4, 2B

Nico Hoerner’s three-hit day was next at .028.

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.065). 0.1 IP, 4 R
• Goat: Ryan Zeferjahn (-.059). 0.2 IP, HR
• Kid: Ian Happ (-.056). 0-4, 2 K

WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s two-run homer in the fourth (.132).

Dodgers Play of the Game: Shohei Ohtani’s two-run homer in the eighth (.113).

Up next: The Cubs wrap up the homestand with a makeup game against the Blue Jays. David Peterson will go for the Cubs and Dylan Cease starts for Toronto.

A win would make it a 5-2 homestand.

Yordan Alvarez has played at an MVP level all season. Now healthy, Josh Hader and Jeremy Peña have performed like All-Stars, while Hunter Brown appears to be rounding into form.

Those four are the Astros’ best players, and losing any one of them would be a major blow to the team’s postseason hopes. But it will take more than those four for Houston to maintain its lead in the American League West. These three players could go a long way toward determining the Astros’ fate:

Cristian Javier
Javier followed up his five-scoreless-inning relief appearance last week in Anaheim with a quality start Monday against the Blue Jays, allowing three runs over six innings. His velocity was up, he threw first-pitch strikes to 16 of 24 hitters, held Toronto to an 86.1 mph average exit velocity and generated a 42% chase rate.

The Astros did not add a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, so they are counting on Peter Lambert to sustain his surprising season while Javier, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski regain their form after lengthy injury layoffs.

Javier is the most accomplished of the group, but even after allowing three runs over his last 11 innings, he will take the mound next with a 6.59 ERA. He showed flashes of his old self after returning from Tommy John surgery last season, but a shoulder strain has derailed much of his 2026 campaign.

Isaac Paredes
Paredes’ .249/.346/.413 slash line is right around his career mark, but the Astros need more if he’s going to bat directly behind Yordan Alvarez, whose 81 walks are the second most in the league. Alvarez has also been intentionally walked 23 times this season; no one else has more than nine.

With Alvarez and Jeremy Peña batting ahead of him, Paredes is going to come to the plate with runners on base more often than not. That has been the case in 20 of his last 30 plate appearances. In those situations, Paredes is 1-for-16 with three walks and a hit by pitch.

Mired in an 0-for-16 slump, Paredes popped out in his only at-bat Wednesday after Joe Espada said he wanted to give him “a mental break.” Unexpected production from the bottom of the lineup has helped offset Paredes’ recent slide, but the Astros will need him producing at a much higher level when he returns to the starting lineup Friday in San Diego. Otherwise, opponents will have little reason to pitch to Alvarez.

Bryan Abreu

Abreu tossed a 1-2-3 inning against the Blue Jays on Wednesday, extending his scoreless streak to 10 appearances. He now owns a 1.27 ERA over his last 22 outings after posting a 7.91 ERA through his first 22.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Abreu. With Josh Hader on the IL, he opened the year as the Astros’ closer before quickly being banished to mop-up duty. He has since reclaimed his role as Houston’s top right-handed reliever.

 
He entered the season with a career 32.7% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate. His velocity has started to climb, and while his chase rate remains near the bottom of the league, it has gradually improved.

Abreu’s dreadful start was a major reason the Astros found themselves 11 games under .500 through their first 51 games, but it may have an unexpected benefit.

Wednesday marked his 44th appearance in the Astros’ 116th game of the season. At the same point in 2025, he had already pitched in 52 games. Through 116 games in 2024, he had made 58 appearances, and in 2023, he had made 54.

He should be one of the freshest late-inning relievers in the American League heading into the stretch run.

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It's a slightly reduced slate on getaway day, but there is MLB action from noon until late, and I'm breaking down all the action with today's MLB moneyline picks.

I'm going with a chalk-heavy approach in these MLB picks, but there is some value to be found on underdogs, notably the San Diego Padres at even money against the Arizona Diamondbacks to cap off Thursday, Aug. 6.

MLB moneyline picks for August 6

Matchup	Pick
Angels vs Orioles	-186
Athletics vs Reds	-156
Mets vs Guardians	-104
Pirates vs Brewers	-127
Blue Jays vs Cubs	-113
Tigers vs Mariners	+117
Nationals vs Phillies	-317
White Sox vs Red Sox	-178
Marlins vs Braves	+133
Twins vs Royals	+117
Padres vs Diamondbacks	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of August 6.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 6

Angels vs Orioles: Orioles (-186)

Orioles win probability: 65%

I want to bet against the juice, but the Los Angeles Angels have one of the worst offenses over the last 30 days, strike out more than anyone, and are deploying a starter in Ryan Johnson who suppresses hard contact but not much else. They traded one of their best hitters, Jo Adell, at the deadline, and simply won't put up much resistance against Brandon Young.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles have about a league-average offense in the last month. That'll be enough.

Athletics vs Reds: Reds (-156)

Reds win probability: 61%

The A's showed some promise early, but with Nick Kurtz sidelined again, Brent Rooker out for the season, and Zack Gelof not quite game-ready, the offense has completely dried up.

And even aside from the injuries, the Athletics own the second-worst road offense in baseball this season with an 82 wRC+ (league average is 100). Even at a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ballpark, I give the Cincinnati Reds the edge to get the job done at home. 

Mets vs Guardians: Guardians (-104)

Guardians win probability: 51%

We've only got coin-flip odds here because Nolan McLean is starting for the New York Mets, so I'll grab the home team. Foster Griffin makes his Cleveland Guardians debut, and the Mets have already waved the white flag on the season. I don't necessarily believe in Griffin's long-term success with one of the slowest fastballs in the game, but as long as he keeps locating, he should keep the Mets at bay.

Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers (-127)

Brewers win probability: 56%

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has hit a wall. Over his last six starts, he owns a 6.75 ERA and has allowed nine home runs in 30 2/3 innings. Ignore the 4-1 record in that span, because the Pirates have given him enough run support to withstand those headwinds. Ashcraft did not, however, pick up the win against the Milwaukee Brewers when he surrendered five runs in five innings on July 11. Milwaukee's a well-oiled machine and has the third-best home record in MLB.

Blue Jays vs Cubs: Blue Jays (-113)

Blue Jays win probability: 53%

Very tempted to take the hometown Chicago Cubs as underdogs here, but the starting pitching matchup between Dylan Cease and David Peterson is too lopsided to ignore. The Toronto Blue Jays should be somewhere around -125 on the moneyline even with an offense that wouldn't hit water if it fell out of a boat.

Tigers vs Mariners: Tigers (+117)

Tigers win probability: 46%

Framber Valdez is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which will help him navigate the winds blowing to right field at T-Mobile Park tonight. I don't give him the edge over Bryce Miller, who has been excellent, but this is a terrific value play on the Detroit Tigers, who have won four of five on this West Coast road swing.

Nationals vs Phillies: Phillies (-317)

Phillies win probability: 76%

It's Miles Mikolas vs. Cristopher Sanchez. It's as lopsided a pitching matchup as you'll see. I can't, in good conscience, go with the underdog in a cheeky bit of counterprogramming. 

White Sox vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-178)

Red Sox win probability: 64%

Until the Chicago White Sox can wake up an offense that owns an 81 wRC+ over the last 30 days, I won't be backing them in a matchup like this. While Ranger Suarez hasn't gone deep into either of his starts since coming off the injured list, the Boston Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA in baseball this year, so they are equipped to deal with extra use if the lefty gets the early hook.

Marlins vs Braves: Marlins (+133)

Marlins win probability: 43%

As good as the Atlanta Braves have been at Truist Park, this is a rock-solid value play. The Miami Marlins aren't especially good, but veteran lefty Martin Perez has largely been smoke and mirrors, with his 4.42 expected ERA far higher than his actual 3.24 ERA on the season. 

Twins vs Royals: Twins (+117)

Twins win probability: 46%

The Minnesota Twins have hit the skids offensively, especially since Byron Buxton went down with yet another injury. But I like getting plus money on the better overall team, as I don't think the starting-pitcher matchup between Bailey Ober and Michael Wacha gives the Kansas City Royals this much of an advantage.

Padres vs Diamondbacks: Padres (+100)

Padres win probability: 50%

Kohl Drake ain't it. Look, Walker Buehler ITYOOL 2026 isn't either, but Drake has allowed three home runs in 13 innings at the MLB level and 11 more in 66 frames at Triple-A this season. The San Diego Padres don't handle lefties, which is somewhat surprising, but Fernando Tatis Jr. has been exemplary in the split. At even money, the Friars are the pick.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning! After falling 15.5 games behind the (at the time) division leading Yankees at the start of play on June 25th, the Red Sox are now tied with New York in the loss column with 51 a piece. (The gap between them is still a game though because the Red Sox have two extra contests to play. In fact, one of them is tonight as the Yankees have the day off and the Red Sox play the White Sox in a series finale at Fenway.)

But for better or worse — and I have mixed emotions about this — the Yankees are no longer leading the division. Because unlike the Yankees, who completely cratered once the Red Sox swept them in a four games series at Fenway, the Rays did the exact opposite after suffering the same fate.

Since July 19th, when the Red Sox completed a four game sweep of the Rays to move within six games of the division lead, little has changed in the division gap. That’s because Rays have gone 12-4 in their last 16 games, meaning the Sox have only picked up a measly half a game on them despite going 12-3 over the same span.

So here’s the question: Can the Red Sox catch the Rays and win the division?

Logic says no. The Red Sox are still missing Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, Curtis Mead, and Adley Rutschman, and despite the possibility of those guys coming back and helping the Sox in a potential postseason run, there’s little regular season runway for them to make a big difference in a division comeback given none of them have timetables for a return.

Then there’s also the issue of the upcoming Rays schedule being extraordinary soft. Tampa does not play a team with a record above .500 again until August 28th (so expect their hot streak to continue). On top of that, the Rays don’t come to Fenway again this year. So the only head-to-head matchup the Sox have left to make up ground is a three game set at the terrible Trop starting September 18th. (This is also a good time to mention that the Red Sox and Rays are 5-5 against each other this year, so taking that series is a must not just to potentially pick up ground, but because it will also determine who has the tie breaker. Remember, there’s no Game 163 anymore.)

Lastly, the Sox are probably going to run into some rotation problems soon. Patrick Sandoval is skating on very thin ice with his walk rate, and both Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett are set to blow by career highs in innings pitched this year. In other words, the engine that’s propelled this run this incredible comeback to this point might partially run out of gas soon.

So yeah, unfortunately logic says the Rays are going to be difficult to catch. But then again, has logic mattered with this team in the last six weeks? They’re 30-5 in their last 35 games, have won nine straight series, have an active seven game winning streak right now, and have laughed in the face of every other obstacle placed in their path so far this summer.

So what do you think? Is the division attainable? Talk about this and whatever else you’d like, and as always, be good to one another.

Casey Mize had a forgettable first start to his tenure with the San Diego Padres. The former Detroit Tigers starter, who was acquired at the Trade Deadline along with Robbie Ray from the San Francisco Giants, was expected to give the Padres a legitimate starter who could provide quality outings and length each time he steps on the mound. He did not meet either of those expectations when he took the mound for the first time in a San Diego uniform against the Arizona Diamondbacks and turned in the worst start of his career on Wednesday night.

Mize was touched up for two runs in the bottom of the third inning but completely fell apart in the top of the fourth when the San Diego starter was knocked out of the game. Mize finished his start after 3.1 innings. He allowed eight runs in nine hits with three walks and a strikeout. The bullpen took over the remainder of the game and allowed an additional two runs as the Padres lost 10-4 at Chase Field.

The San Diego offense was controlled by Arizona’s rookie left-hander Mitch Bratt, who cruised through seven innings allowing just one hit and three walks with nine strikeouts. Bratt was able to record his first win of the season with his dominant outing. The Padres showed some life in the top of the ninth inning, but it was too little too late. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a solo home run to left-center field and after San Diego loaded the bases Gage Workman hit a three-run double to give the Padres four runs.

It was a disappointing effort all around for the Padres who were outhit 15-3 in the game. San Diego will have to get over the loss quickly and try to split the series with a win tonight in the final game of the series against Arizona at 6:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Adrian Morejon has proven himself to be one of the most valuable arms in the San Diego bullpen. Randy Vasquez looked to be in line for a breakout season as a starter but has been knocked out of the rotation. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball takes a look at both players in what has been both a fabulous and frustrating season.

• San Diego announced it will raise ticket prices for a sixth consecutive season in 2027.

• Despite an injury scare in Lake Elsinore, Nick Pivetta is moving forward in his rehab assignment.

Baseball News:

• The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers played beanball as five players were hit by pitches and two players were ejected.

• Sonny Gray earned his 14th win of the season and pushed the Boston Red Sox current win streak to seven games.

• The Chicago Cubs finished off a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 7-6 win.

• The Atlanta Braves beat the Miami Marlins, 4-1 for their seventh win in a row.

• The Washington Nationals beat the Philadelphia Phillies, 10-4.

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The Cleveland Guardians head into today's contest against the New York Mets as -116 moneyline favorites as Foster Griffin makes his debut. 

With the lefty throwing the ball well, my Mets vs Guardians predictions target Cleveland to win this afternoon as they face the vulnerable Nolan McLean.

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 6. 

Who will win Mets vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-116)

The newly acquired Foster Griffin takes the hill today for the Cleveland Guardians. He was pitching well before the trade, posting a 3.44 FIP over his last four starts while allowing just 0.69 HR/9.

Griffin comes up against a New York Mets offense in poor form, posting just a 76 wRC+ over its previous seven games.

As for Nolan McLean, he has hit a rough spell, compiling a 5.43 xERA over his last two appearances while giving up 2.19 HR/9 during that span.

The Guardians are also in respectable offensive form, posting a 105 wRC+ over the last week. Griffin keeps New York at bay, and Cleveland will jump on the struggling McLean.

I’ll play this pick up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Guardians are a different offensive team at home, posting a 103 wRC+ compared to an 84 mark on the road. That matters against a pitcher in McLean who is vulnerable right now. 

Mets vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-103)

This total sits at 7.5, and the Over has the better path. New York’s offense is not in great form, but Cleveland’s bullpen creates real late-game risk. The Guardians relief corps has posted a 6.54 FIP over its last 18 innings while allowing 2.00 HR/9.

The Mets bullpen has been much steadier with a 2.76 xERA during that same span, so Cleveland may need to do more early damage.

Still, the Guardians are swinging it well enough right now to pressure McLean, and New York only needs to chip in against a vulnerable Cleveland pen.

I’ll play this pick up to -120. 

Mets vs Guardians weather

Conditions look warm and clean at Progressive Field this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting in the mid-80s throughout the game. Winds should stay light around 6–7 mph, and rain chances are very low. Weather should have minimal impact, though the warm air could slightly help carry.

Mets vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Mets +108 | Guardians -113
• Run line: Mets -1.5 (+178) | Guardians +1.5 (-186)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-100) | Under 7.5 (-104)

Mets vs Guardians trend

The Cleveland Guardians have hit the game total Over in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+3.45 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Guardians.

How to watch Mets vs Guardians and game info

Mets vs Guardians latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Detroit Tigers’ winning streak came to an end on Wednesday night with a 4-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. The bullpen day effort started strong, but Brenan Hanifee surrendered three runs without recording an out and the offense was Woo’d by the home team’s pitching, resulting in defeat.

Taking the mound in the series finale for the Motor City Kitties is left-hander Framber Valdez, who started the month off with a fine showing against the Athletics in Sacramento. The 32-year-old registered his 11th quality start of the season, allowing a pair of runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings, earning his sixth win with an 8-6 final score.

Valdez faced Seattle earlier this season on June 5 in Detroit, tossing five frames of one-run ball on five hits and two walks while striking out five, plus a hit-by-pitch for his third win of the 2026 campaign in a 7-3 final.

For the Mariners, right-hander Bryce Miller will climb the hill looking to turn the page on a subpar July. If you Porcello out his seven-shutout-inning effort to start July, the 27-year-old put up a 5.48 ERA and 6.28 FIP across four starts, allowing 25 hits (five home runs) and eight walks while striking out 12 and hitting a batter over that 21 1/3-inning span, earning three losses in the process.

Miller tossed a gem against the Tigers back on June 6, serving up six shutout innings on just one hit and two walks while striking out nine to earn his second win in a 4-0 finale.

Here is a look at how the two hurlers match up on Thursday afternoon in Seattle.

Detroit Tigers (55-59) vs. Seattle Mariners (56-59)

Time (ET): 4:10 p.m.
Place: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
SB Nation Site:Lookout Landing
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 115: LHP Framber Valdez (6-7, 4.41 ERA) vs. RHP Bryce Miller (4-5, 2.80 ERA)

VALDEZ

MILLER

Rangers 6, Giants 0

• Bradford’s back, and you’re gonna be in trouble…
• Hey ya, hey ya, Bradford’s back…
• That was a fulfilling victory.
• And not least of which, among the fulfilling aspects of the victory, was the return of Cody Bradford.
• Bradford had a very solid outing for Texas, throwing 70 pitches in 4.1 innings and keeping the Giants off the board.
• Having not thrown more than 56 pitches in his five rehab appearances in the minors, 70-75 seemed like the most that Bradford would go this time out.
• Maybe if there were two outs in the fifth, Bradford would have been left in for one more batter in an attempt to get him the win. But with two on and one out, Bradford had done his job, and even if Tyler Alexander, coming into the game behind Bradford, got the “W” next to his name in the box score, Bradford felt like the winning pitcher in this outing.
• It was pointed out during the game that, of the players who appeared in Bradford’s last major league start for the Rangers, only two of them were still in the organization — Wyatt Langford and Justin Foscue.
• Langford, of course. But Justin Foscue isn’t someone I’d have guessed as the other part of the answer to that particular trivia question.
• The much-maligned Rangers bullpen — justifiably maligned of late, I would say — stepped up behind Bradford and kept the Giants off the board the rest of the way, resulting in the tenth shutout by the Rangers this season, and just the second since June 7.
• Even Cole Winn recorded a scoreless inning, in his first appearance since the unfortunate events in Houston this past Sunday. Way to go, Cole!
• Every Ranger starter got on base except for Cam Cauley, who got the start at second base as the Rangers shuffled their infield with Corey Seager getting the day off.
• It felt like every Ranger starter got on base in the third inning, when they put four runs up on the board, but it was only five players who got on base that inning, highlighted by a Justin Foscue two run triple.
• Foscue had been 0 for his last 11, and in a 2 for 23 slide, before recording what was the first triple of his major league career. And Joc Pederson pinch hit for him the next time up, so Foscue left the game on a high note.
• Not only was it the first triple of Foscue’s major league career, it was his first triple, period since 2023, when he was with Round Rock.
• Foscue has only registered six triples in the minors, for that matter, and never had one during his college career at Mississippi State.
• Tip of the cap to Giants left fielder Eddys Leonard, whose problems corralling the ball in the corner allowed Foscue to make it to third base.
• Ezequiel Duran, hero of the previous game, was just 0 for 3, lowering his OPS on the year to 787.
• Brandon Nimmo was 2 for 3 with a walk and an opposite-field homer that was just far enough to make it into the stands down the left field line, raising his OPS on the year to 787.
• Nicky Lopez had entered the game slashing .132/.227/.132 in his previous 46 plate appearances. He even contributed a pair of hits, though he also got thrown out trying to steal.
• Cody Bradford topped out at 90.5 mph with his fastball, averaging 88.8 mph. Tyler Alexander hit 92.8 mph with his fastball. Robby Ahlstrom’s sinker reached 95.1 mph. Chase Silseth maxed ouat at 96.8 mph with his fastball. Cole Winn’s fastball touched 96.2 mph.
• Wyatt Langford had a 103.8 mph double. Joc Pederson had a 103.0 mph single. Elias Diaz had a 101.5 mph fly out and a 101.0 mph fly out. Ezequiel Duran had a 100.2 mph GIDP.
• An off day for us to enjoy now.

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees open a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves in the Bronx on Friday...

5 things to watch

Matching up with a division leader

The Yankees' schedule after the All-Star break has been tough. Every series has seen them match up against a playoff team or a team that is in the hunt, and New York has held its own.

After taking two of three from the Phillies, they went 4-3 in Chicago against the White Sox and Cubs. But after dropping their series against the Cardinals, the Yankees will now see the NL East-leading Braves.

Atlanta has won seven games in a row and is currently the No. 2 seed in the National League. 

Similar to the Dodgers series, this could be a potential World Series preview.

Finally a break

The Yankees have an off day Thursday, their first in 13 days. 

It allows the overworked bullpen to reset and perhaps the day off can give the lineup a chance to get a blow after struggling for much of the last few weeks. 

The Yanks have scored more than three runs just twice over their last nine games. And their series finale against the Cardinals on Wednesday left a lot to be desired -- 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and 11 left on base.

Can newcomers get going?

It's only been a few games, and Luis Garcia Jr. and Heliot Ramos are still getting acclimated to life in pinstripes. 

This will be a good test against a Braves rotation that should include Chris Sale pitching one of these games.

Garcia is 3-for-11 with a home run in his first three games since being acquired, while Ramos is 1-for-7 in his first two. 

Both sluggers were acquired at the deadline to boost the anemic offense and while they've had moments, the Yankees need them to get rolling in their new attire to help New York get back to its winning ways.

Lombard's development

George Lombard Jr. had an amazing debut and a solid second game, and will look to keep that momentum going over the weekend.

Although we shouldn't expect the shortstop to be a world-beater at the plate, at least not yet, he'll get his real first test with a Braves team that can deploy some major arms, especially out of the bullpen. 

Let's see Lombard continue to get used to major league pitching, while his already-elite defense continues to shine.

Cam not good at home

Cam Schlittler is the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young, but he was roughed up his last time out. The Cardinals scored four runs in three innings off the right-hander earlier this week, and Schlittler will look to bounce back.

While Schlittler usually doesn't have two bad starts in a row, it's worth monitoring how he pitches at home. He has a 1.10 ERA on the road, but a 4.32 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season.

Can he buck that trend this Sunday?

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Luis Garcia Jr.

Garcia nearly had his Yankee moment in his first game, and has hits in each game he's appeared in since the trade. That should continue this weekend.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best game?

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler will bounce back. He hasn't really had back-to-back clunkers this season.

Which Braves player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Matt Olson

Olson is having a great season and it'll be hard to keep him from going yard this weekend.

Draftees, trades, and graduations have really shaken things up in the Twins organization this month as the system has added and lost a bunch of notable prospects. The top of the list remains loaded high-minors talent that is likely to contribute to the major league team in 2027 or potentially as early as this fall.

No. 3 pick Vahn Lackey headlines the list of additions, but there are a handful of 2026 draftees scattered throughout the top 40. The month of August has kicked off with the surprise departure of Dasan Hill, but he has effectively been replaced by another high-upside flamethrower in Ethan Wachsmann. There is a lot to unpack with this evolving system and as always, we begin at the top…

1. OF Walker Jenkins (AAA)

We have gotten modest offensive production from Walker Jenkins since he returned from injury towards the end of June, but that’s really a testament to how steady and polished of a player he is at just 21 years old. Jenkins is batting .298 with an .839 OPS since returning, which is impressive in itself, but his peripheral numbers are even better.

He has maintained an elite zone contact rate of nearly 95% all season while striking out at a 15% clip, and his 106 MPH 90th percentile EV is very healthy. There is above-average power potential if he can elevate the ball more consistently. Jenkins has been more aggressive in the strike zone lately, which is limiting his walk rate but leading to a stronger power output. It’s also noteworthy that the platoon splits have been pretty drastic. His only slight issue against righties is chasing changeups a bit too much, but he’s posting elite contact rates and producing a ton of power. Lefties are giving Jenkins some real fits. He’s making enough contact to be a passable hitter there, but is yet to find any power.

He is still playing almost strictly center field as he nears a major league debut. His plus arm likely fits best in right field, but I expect him to be the secondary center fielder behind Buxton, and he has the range and instincts to be solid there. Don’t worry about the lack of elite production at the plate, Walker Jenkins is a polished five tool prospect and is absolutely ready for the big leagues.

2. C Vahn Lackey (A)

Vahn Lackey just started playing in the Twins system and we will get a good look at him in the lower levels over the final month and a half. It has been one hell of a year for Lackey, who broke out at Georgia Tech and became the No. 3 overall pick in the draft this summer. He opens as my No. 2 Twins prospect, but a close 2nd to Walker Jenkins.

Lackey has a borderline plus hit tool. He crushes fastballs, but has had some issues against offspeed. His loud leg kick may be contributing to those issues, making it difficult for him to adjust to less velocity. His power has developed in a big way as well this year. He has posted exit velocities north of 110 MPH and has a good feel for pulling fly balls. His swing decisions will be interesting to watch as his sample size builds because he showed much improved patience this spring, nearly doubling his walk rate from last season while continuing to cut his strikeout rate.

The defense is equally or maybe even more impressive. He is a unique athlete at the catcher position. He is a threat on the bases and shows off excellent lateral movement skills behind the dish. With a plus arm and advanced receiving and blocking, there is plus potential at catcher. The defensive potential and continued development at the plate make Lackey an elite prospect and a guy who is still trending up. There is legit Adley Rutschman-esque No. 1 MLB prospect potential here if the bat translates well. Home run pick by the Twins.

3. OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (AAA)

Are we finally getting close to an Emmanuel Rodriguez debut? E-Rod is back from his thumb surgery and could really provide some thump to the Twins lineup down the stretch. He is crushing Triple-A, slashing .247/.417/.506 for a 137 wRC+ in 25 games this year.

He possesses 70 grade raw power and his 118.3 MPH max EV and 111.3 90th percentile EV remain among the few best in the world. His contact rates are concerning, but a mature approach and excellent swing decisions help reduce the hit tool issues. Defensively, he has good range and a plus arm. There is solid center field talent here, but it’s unclear how the outfield situation will shake out going forward with Buxton, Jenkins, and Rodriguez among others.

The offensive ceiling is undeniable, which is why I’ve kept him at the top of the rankings despite all of the injuries. At 23 years old, E-Rod already holds one of the most powerful bats in the world and complements it with a couple of other quality tools.

4. SS Kaelen Culpepper (AAA)

Kaelen Culpepper was rolling and seemed just days away from his major league debut until a glute injury sent him to the IL in the middle of June. He is back in action now, but the injury put a wrench in a season that was looking very promising.

Culpepper has a borderline plus hit tool, posting zone contact rates close to 90% with a good batted ball profile. His max EV around 110 MPH and 90th percentile around 104 are around MLB average, and his quality feel for pulling fly balls gives him a good chance for average or better power production. The swing decisions and plate approach are the most concerning part of his game. He has cut down on his swing rates this year and is a more patient hitter, but the swing decisions remain poor.

Kaelen is a good runner and has proven to be an effective bag-stealer on good volume. He’s a smooth and reliable defender that has spent most of his time at shortstop this year. Projects as a quality shortstop who will start there when he debuts, but may get pushed off the position by Marek Houston. Culpepper is a great fit at third base as well, where his plus arm will absolutely play.

5. SS Marek Houston (AA)

The Twins’ 2025 1st round pick just keeps getting better and better as he quickly pushes towards the top of the minor leagues. Houston slashed .358/.429/.611 with a 159 wRC+ with the Wind Surge in July and has shown no signs of slowing down.

While there is fringy raw power is his bat, Houston is making the most of it by consistently finding the barrel and displaying functional gap power. His hit tool is above average, running overall contact rates around 80%. I’ve been most impressed with his approach this year. He’s a patient hitter with excellent spin recognition, always looking comfortable at the plate and putting together mature at-bats.

His defense is silky smooth. Houston is a plus defender at short and seems to be a lock to take over the Twins shortstop job when he reaches the majors. He’s also a plus runner who is on pace to steal nearly 60 bags this season. While much of the value was initially expected to come on the defensive side, the bat has broken out this year and is pushing Marek firmly into top 100 prospect rankings. A 2027 debut is expected, and the chances of him making the Opening Day roster are increasing every day.

6. LHP Kendry Rojas (MLB)

After being acquired in the Louie Varland trade last July, Kendry Rojas had a rough go in his first taste of Triple-A, but he came back this year with improved stuff. His fastball has ticked up and we are seeing improvements with his slider.

Despite the high walk rates, I am fairly impressed with Kendry’s feel for command. He is consistently keeping the fastball up in the zone, slider in the chase area, and changeup down and away from righties. He was nibbling too much early on, but has cranked up the aggressiveness lately as I think he’s realizing he can get away with more in the zone than he thought.

The fastball is sitting around 96 and topping 98 with some good life at the top of the zone. Slider has turned into a deadly whiff pitch in the upper 80s while the changeup has been barreled a bit too much this year, but has added some depth and grades out as an above-average offering against righties. He’s working a hybrid role this year, throwing 2-4 innings at a time, sometimes as the starter and others as a follower. There is mid rotation potential if he can throw enough strikes, but it may be beneficial to add another pitch given that he only has two distinct velocities at the moment. If he doesn’t work out as a starter, there could be some real gas as a lefty bullpen arm. Not a finished product, but a fun player with good stuff and a lot of potential at 23 years old.

7. RHP Charlee Soto (A+)

Charlee Soto briefly returned from injury in June but was sent back to the IL after forearm soreness continued to be an issue. He is now back on a throwing program, but we likely won’t see much more of him on the mound this year. Still, I’m obsessed with the profile.

The injuries are starting to pile up, but at 6’3” with a linebacker build, there is no doubt that he has the frame to handle high velocity. The fastball has pushed into the upper 90s and averaged 98.1 MPH in his two short starts this year. It’s a sinker-type that fills up the zone and generates ground balls. The secondaries are what makes Charlee Soto so intriguing. He speeds you up with the high velocity and then picks you apart with three plus secondaries. He has always had a natural changeup feel, generating 17 inches of horizontal movement in the upper 80s with excellent command. He has a cutter in the upper 80s and a slider in the mid 80s, both generating plus depth with spin rates around 2,400.

He is developing solid command and has filled up the strike zone in his first few years in the pros. It is firmly frontline starter profile if he can build up a workload while staying healthy. Soto is still just 20 years old with probably the most talented arm in the system.

8. C Eduardo Tait (A+)

Eduardo Tait drops a bit in the rankings this month as we just aren’t seeing much improvement from him throughout this season. He finally turns 20 this month and is still firmly on track in his development even if he starts next season at High-A.

Tait batted .250 with a .749 OPS in July, running average contact rates with a free-swinging approach. His 70 grade power is already looking legit as he is now up to 18 homers on the season. The hit tool is fringy but looks like it will be good enough to support his elite power. His chase rate has climbed over 40% this year. Approach improvements are a necessity for Tait to find sustained success in the majors. With a plus arm, there is a good chance for him to develop into a playable catcher. His blocking and receiving have work to do, but Tait is still early in his development and has plenty of time to get there.

It has been a frustrating season for the young backstop, but he is still one of the most advanced teenage hitters in the world and has superstar potential. Its a comparable profile to Salvador Perez or Hunter Goodman as an aggressive power hitter who can provide some thump to the middle of a lineup while playing passable defense at the most important position on the diamond.

9. RHP Riley Quick (AA)

Riley Quick has struggled with walks and homers in his first professional season, but the stuff is some of the best in the organization. He has dealt with blisters on his throwing hand all season, which could be contributing to the command issues. Still, he put up elite strikeout rates in the low minors and now has pushed his way up to Double-A, where his stuff will get a real challenge.

While his fastball has good velocity in the 94-97 range, his wide and whippy delivery best accommodates a sinker type that fills up the strike zone and generates ground balls with lower whiff rates. His secondaries do the heavy lifting, led by a mid 80 slider that generates elite whiff rates with spin rates around 2,800 and some nasty two-plane break. He throws a harder cutter and a slower curveball that are solid offerings and add a couple more layers to keep hitters off-balance. His changeup is also a huge weapon, possessing elite depth in the upper 80s, but he has struggled to command the pitch at times.

Quick maxed out at 62 innings in his junior year at Alabama after getting Tommy John in 2024. He is already approaching that number this year and it will take a few years for him to build up a starter workload. Definitely high reliever risk here, but Riley Quick has frontline starter upside if he can stay healthy and throw enough strikes.

10. C Carson Tinney (A)

2026 2nd round pick Carson Tinney didn’t waste any time showing Twins fans what he can do when he was sent to Fort Myers. His first hit as a pro was a home run with an exit velocity of 114.9 MPH, the hardest-hit ball in Mighty Mussels franchise history and harder than any ball hit by a Twins player this season.

There is a lot of whiff in his big righty swing, but Tinney mitigates those issues with an extremely patient approach and low chase rates. His 70 grade power is arguably the best in the entire 2026 draft, and he’s already putting it on display. It is TBD exactly where the hit tool stands, but his 80% zone contact rate at Texas gives me hope that his contact skills are good enough to let the power flourish.

He is a bit lumbery with his big frame, not a great athlete behind the dish, but he has a good arm and enough technical skill to make me believe he can be a passable catcher. Otherwise, the Twins may explore a move to first base. He has a good chance to mash his way through the low minors pretty quickly, but the upper levels will provide a much better litmus test as soon as next season. Huge upside in his bat, but some clear hit tool concerns.

11. RHP Adrian Bohorquez (A+)

The flamethrowing righty has struggled with command in his return from a forearm strain, but he showed last year that he can be a strike-thrower, and the stuff is very exciting. Bohorquez has found some more velo in 2026, sitting 96-98 with his fastball. He gets quality carry towards the top of the zone and has shown he can maintain velocity deep into outings. His slider in the upper 80s and a curveball in the low 80s both generate elite whiff rates, possessing plus spin and sharp break. His power changeup in the low 90s is a bit flat but gets a ton of ground contact. Bohorquez has been dominant against righties, but has really struggled to generate whiffs against lefties. If he can’t find more success with the changeup, there is significant reliever risk. Still, the stuff is excellent and would fit seamlessly into the back end of a bullpen.

12. 3B/OF Brandon Winokur (AA)

Brandon Winokur’s first taste of Double-A has gone quite well. Contact rates have remained concerning, but he’s producing power and showing great signs of development in both the infield and outfield. His chase rates have climbed and his 74% zone contact is poor, but he is still 21 with plus power potential that he’s tapping into more this summer. With a plus arm and above-average legs, Winokur projects to be an asset at third base or in the outfield, and I think he can be a legit center fielder. Now in Double-A, the lack of a hit tool is still not slowing his production. With flashy raw tools, there is plenty of value in a power/defense profile.

13. OF Hendry Mendez (AAA)

Hendry Mendez has settled down after a hot spring, but it’s an interesting profile from the 6’3” lefty outfielder. His flat and violent swing creates plus contact rates and a lot of hard ground balls, which has led to batting averages around .300 since joining the Twins organization last July. With a max EV of 112 MPH and a 90th around 105, Mendez has above-average raw pop, but the ground ball rates severely limit his functional power. Swing decisions continue to be excellent. He is aggressive in the strike zone while maintaining a chase rate around 20%. He lacks speed and defensive instincts as the Saints have strictly played him in left field and DH this year. The bat has .300 AVG potential and he puts together tough at-bats. The Twins may explore some swing adjustments to try to tap into the raw power more, but even in his current state, Mendez is almost a guaranteed big league hitter.

14. RHP Ethan Wachsmann (DRAFT)

The Twins paid $2.25M (slot value $1.05M) to pry 18-year-old Ethan Wachsmann away from Wake Forest in the 3rd round. The 6’5” righty is raw but oozing with arm talent. He has a fairly easy delivery from a 3/4 arm slot. The ball pops out of his hand, sitting upper 90s and running up to 100 with a lot of spin. Likely looking at more of a sinker type similar to Charlee Soto unless there are some mechanical changes. He has a trio of secondaries that have flashed some fun potential, but are very raw at the moment. The most enticing is the curveball around 80, which is highly inconsistent but has flashed spin rates as high as 2,900 with sharp two-plane break. He has a harder cutterish slider in the mid 80s and an upper 80s changeup that kills spin and has flashed some quality fade. There is a long way to go, as we have seen with Dasan Hill and Charlee Soto, but the velocity and spin with his big frame make Ethan Wachsmann an incredibly exciting pitching prospect.

15. RHP Ryan Gallagher (AAA)

The numbers are not pretty for Ryan Gallagher this year, but he has really started to find success lately. His 4.12 ERA and 4.19 FIP in July was well above-average for the International League, and he kicked off August with 9 strikeouts over 6 innings of one-run ball. Gallagher is starting to find the strike zone more consistently while missing barrels. His fastball sits 91-94 and has struggled to miss bats, but is filling up the zone and generating weak air contact. The mid 80s cutter has been the biggest contributor to his newfound success as it has added some depth and he is locating it well away from righties to generate a 48% whiff rate in July. His changeup has elite velo separation from the fastball at 79-81 and gets quality depth, which has made it a dangerous whiff pitch against both lefties and righties. A curveball around 80 has been hit hard at times, but is a solid fourth offering. Lefties have teed off on Gallagher this year despite the success of his changeup. He looks like a solid end of the rotation starter that can eat innings, but may need to add a tick to the fastball to give him a better shot at big league success.

16. OF Yasser Mercedes (A+)

Some deficiencies have shown through for Yasser Mercedes, but it was ultimately a productive month of July. He batted .284 with an .865 OPS on the month, hitting for good power but running a 30.6% strikeout rate. There are clear hit tool concerns with Yasser and the swing decisions have looked poor as well, but the raw power and quality of contact has been so incredibly impressive. It’s easy plus power and he’s a plus runner who has stolen 41 bags so far this season. He has a big arm, but lacks instincts in the outfield and likely fits best in right field. Mercedes is oozing with raw talent, but the 21-year-old needs to show he can keep up this production down the stretch in order to stay on track.

17. RHP Brett Renfrow (DRAFT)

6’3” right-hander Brett Renfrow made 15 starts with 70+ innings in each of his three season at Virginia Tech. He will be ready to hit the ground running next year, where his smooth mechanics, quality strike-throwing, and 4 pitch arsenal should allow him to eat innings as a high-probability starter. He gets good extension down the mound on his fastball that sits low 90s and tops out around 97 with good carry and spin. Renfrow has a good feel for spin on the breaking balls, featuring a mid 80s slider with some good bite and a little late sweep. The curveball can be a nice 4th offering in the low 80s. The changeup has shown good iVB separation from the fastball, but is still developing a feel. There is a baseline as a quality reliever here with the carry fastball and good slider. If that fastball can creep up into the mid 90s more consistently and we get some changeup development, I see mid rotation upside here.

18. C/OF Khadim Diaw (AA)

The Twins have gotten nonstop production out of Khadim Diaw since he was drafted in the 3rd round in 2024. He has fringy power, but the hit tool is looking borderline plus this year and has translated seamlessly to Double-A. His 85% zone contact and 84% overall contact in Double-A are strong numbers, and he pairs it with great swing decisions. He’s a good athlete with an interesting utility catcher profile as well. I question his arm at catcher, but his blocking and receiving has developed nicely. He can play a good corner outfield and potentially a passable center field while filling in at catcher. We will see if Diaw can hit enough at the major league level, but the minor league production has been great, and he provides some valuable defensive versatility. He turns 23 at the end of the month.

19. RHP James Ellwanger (A)

The 2025 3rd round pick underwent Tommy John in June and will now spend the entire offseason and potentially a portion of next year rehabbing. He turns 23 next season and has just 11 professional innings under his belt, but it’s 11 scoreless innings at that, and Ellwanger has very intriguing stuff. The fastball is mid 90s but lacks quality shape, which is limiting its swing-and-miss potential. His low 80s curveball is the best pitch with some sharp two-plane break. A cutter in the low 90s has potential and his changeup flashes plus with elite depth. Ellwanger threw an adequate amount of strikes in April, but it was a lot of spray-and-pray with poor precision. The velocity and feel for spin makes for exciting potential, but command concerns and now a torn UCL make him more likely than not a reliever.

20. OF Eduardo Beltre (A)

I dropped Eduardo Beltre down my rankings a little bit earlier this summer, but I’ve had a renewed belief in him despite the fact that he hasn’t played since April due to a knee injury and is out for the season. There are some concerns with swing decisions, but he has shown off plus power potential since his debut season in the DSL where he jacked 11 homers in 43 games at age 17. He already has a strong build and is running exit velocities up to 110 MPH. It’s a small sample size, but his 83% zone contact rate this season gives me hope that there is a playable hit tool, and his strikeout rates were manageable during his time in rookie ball. Beltre is a good athlete who can steal some bags. He has split time across all three outfield spots, and his plus arm and quality range project to fit nicely into a corner spot with some playable center field defense. Losing nearly a full season this early in his career is a tough break, but Eduardo Beltre is a toolsy right-handed hitter with some real slugger potential.

21. SS Quentin Young (A)

One look at the monstrous swing and you can tell that Quentin Young has big power with a lot of swing-and-miss. His 113 MPH max exit velocity and 108 MPH 90th at 19 years old are unbelievable. You can slap an easy 65 or 70 grade power tool on him. Meanwhile, his 44% strikeout rate and 62% zone contact rate are in the 5th percentile and give him a bleak outlook. Given how much effort is involved in Young’s swing and how many moving parts there are, I think some swing adjustments are likely to be made to add some more control to his swing, which would be beneficial even if it sacrifices some power. He’s playing mostly shortstop so far as a solid athlete with a rocket arm. He’s raw defensively, but projects well at third base. Huge potential here but he won’t sniff the majors, or even the upper minors, until we see significant hit tool improvements.

22. UTIL Ben Ross (AAA)

I continue to warm up on Ben Ross, who has really found success with his bat in 2026 and can be a rock solid bench piece for the Twins. He has a fringy hit tool and limited power, but elite swing decisions have allowed Ross to put together good at-bats and make the most of his limited offensive talent. He won’t be a good major league hitter, but if he can hit just a little bit, then he will stick on a roster as a good runner and plus utility defender. He has played all over the infield and outfield this year, possessing the arm, range, and instincts to provide value wherever the team needs him. Ross makes a lot of sense to be a September call-up.

23. 2B/SS Kyle DeBarge (AA)

It’s been a tough season for Kyle DeBarge, but he trended in the right direction in July, running into more contact and producing some functional power. He’s a smaller right-handed hitter with good legs and a defense-first profile. The strikeout numbers have elevated this year, but there is hope for an average hit tool, which we have seen more this summer. He is a patient hitter with below-average raw power, but he hits the ball hard consistently and has a good feel for pulling fly balls. He has the defensive actions to be an excellent middle infielder. While his arm may not be good enough to stick at short, he could provide value as a backup shortstop who spends more time at second. A good runner who stole 66 bags in 2025 and will be a threat to steal. There is hope that the bat can provide respectable production, and if so, DeBarge will be a big league middle infielder for a long time.

24. C/1B Enrique Jimenez (A+)

After a significant hamstring strain suffered on July 24th, Enrique Jimenez is likely done for the season. He has played just 40 games and saw some elevated whiff rates when me moved up to High-A, but I’m very intrigued by the switch-hitting bat. He gets a lot of elevation in his swing, which contributed to the fringy hit tool. He has a good chance for at least average power production, running exit velocities up to 107 MPH with a great feel for pulling fly balls. He also has a very patient and mature approach, maintaining low chase rates while being fairly aggressive in the strike zone. He has limited movement skills behind the dish and an average arm, but is showing good development and projects to at least be passable there. It’s early for Jimenez and injuries really slowed him down this year, but I like his potential as a quality backup catcher.

25. RHP Marco Raya (MLB)

After getting into a groove for a couple months, Marco Raya hit the IL in early July with a minor shoulder injury and has once again been struggling with walks and homers in Triple-A since returning. His fastball sits mid 90s with a little cut, but is a deadzone pitch that continues to be hit hard. He tosses a curveball and sweeper in the mid 80s, both generating a ton of whiff with sharp break and elite spin rates but have been barreled at a high rate. His power changeup around 90s has remained an effective pitch as well with great depth. He throws it almost strictly to lefties and locates it well away from them, generating lots of whiff and weak contact. Raya has the stuff of a high leverage bullpen arm, but needs to find more consistency in his command.

26. RHP Alejandro Hidalgo (AAA)

Alejandro Hidalgo has been ravaged by home runs this year, but an average barrel rate and some really impressive statcast data suggest he has been remarkably unlucky. Hidalgo works a nice three pitch mix. His fastball sits 95-97 with good ride, missing bats at the top of the zone. His cutter in the upper 80s is an above-average pitch, running strong chase and whiff rates. His changeup has been the prize this year. It doesn’t have particularly impressive shape, but in the mid 80s, the arm action and velo separation make it extremely difficult for hitters to wait back on. Hidalgo has dropped his walk rate throughout the year and is showing encouraging signs in the command department. It has been a wild ride of a minor league career, but he is still just 23 years old and has developed nicely this year. If he doesn’t debut this fall, the Twins will have an interesting decision to make with Hidalgo, who is Rule 5 eligible this offseason and likely to get some looks from other teams.

27. RHP Matt Barr (A)

The start of Matt Barr’s pro career has been a roller coaster ride as he gets back into sync after a stress fracture in his arm during spring training. It’s a high-effort delivery with command concerns. His fastball sits in the 93-95 range with deadzone tendancies, but can give hitters some tough angles with his wide release point. He doesn’t throw a changeup, but has a trio of nasty high-spin breaking balls. The best is a two-plane slider in the mid 80s that almost is more of a sweeper. The pitch gets 2,800 RPMs and is already looking unhittable in Single-A. His cutter in the upper 80s looks like a plus pitch, getting sharp sweep with elite spin rates. He mixes in a curveball around 80 that looks like a fine fourth pitch. The 2 year JuCo product is very young with plenty of time to develop. The lack of a changeup along with command concerns make Barr a probable reliever, but with how good the breaking balls are, he might be able to make it work if we see fastball improvements. He will be a very fun player to watch develop over the next few years.

28. OF Luis Fragoza (A)

Luis Fragoza came out of nowhere in year 3, reaching Single-A in late May and taking off. He is a solid athlete at 6’1”, playing across the outfield but also seeing time as a corner infielder (and looking pretty good). The righty is flashing above-average raw power and has hit 11 homers in 61 games this year. Lackluster swing decisions are a concern and have led to a walk rate around 6% with a 27% strikeout rate. There are hit tool questions, but I think he has a pretty smooth operation in his swing, and his 82% zone contact this season has climbed even higher throughout the summer. He may not have the arm of a good third baseman, but would fit well in a corner outfield spot. It’s very early for Fragoza, but the production and raw talent as a teenager is impossible to ignore.

29. OF/1B Gabriel Gonzalez (MLB)

Gabriel Gonzalez has settled in nicely at first base, but it puts his plus arm to minimal use and he likely won’t hit enough to provide positive value at the position. His contact rates looked good throughout July, but the lack of quality contact and chase-heavy approach remain detrimental to his outlook. If he can really lean into the hit tool or find some playable power, there could be a solid major league bat, but with limited speed and defense, nothing about his profile is a guaranteed major league asset right now.

30. RHP Eli Jones (AA)

This is Eli Jones’ first appearance on my top 40, and he has skyrocketed into the No. 30 spot despite not pitching since May due to injury. Jones has slipped my mind this season, but I’m warming up to the idea of him as one of the Twins’ top true starting pitching prospects. He is a 6’1” righty with a deep repertoire and heavy strike-throwing. He posted a 4.39 ERA and 3.50 FIP on good volume this spring before the injury. He leads with a sinker, which has pushed more consistently into the mid 90s and generates a ton of ground contact. The 4-seamer is mixed in as well and can generate some whiff at the top of the zone. Jones has a trio of average breaking balls with distinct shapes and velocities, also having a lot of success against lefties with his mid 80s changeup. Not a flashy prospect, but a pitchability arm with decent stuff and excellent strike-throwing. Eli Jones is destined for the back end of a major league rotation if he can continue on this upward trajectory.

31. OF Kala’i Rosario (AAA)

Kala’i Rosario dominated Double-A all summer last year after a rough month of April, but the whiff rates have shot back up this season as he has not been able to build on the 2025 success. Rosario possesses plus raw power from the right side of the plate with an extremely patient approach, but the hit tool creates significant doubt that he will be able to find major league success as a hitter. He has worked to improve as a runner, shattering his career high in steals with 32 last season and is a solid athlete. His good arm and decent range give me hope that he can be an average corner outfielder. There is some real slugging potential in a corner outfield spot if things go Rosario’s way, but the hit tool continues to be a limitation.

32. RHP Reed Moring (A+)

The 2025 15th round pick was called up to Cedar Rapids in July after a strong Single-A showing where he posted a 2.60 ERA and 3.39 FIP over 52 innings. His fastball sits low 90s with good ride, a pitch that could really do some damage if Moring can work it into the mid 90s. He has a big league slider, getting some good bite in the mid 80s, but has caught far too much of the strike zone with it this year, leading to some hard contact. The changeup kills spin and generates great vertical separation from the fastball. It will be a huge pitch for him against lefties as he gets more comfortable using it. A slower 12-6 curve is mixed in as well and has been effective. Moring has been a strike-thrower to a fault this year, but his stuff has mid-rotation potential if he can improve his command and work around the edges more effectively. Really hopeful for this late-round selection one year in.

33. RHP Tommy LaPour (DRAFT)

The Twins 4th round draft pick is 6’4” with a strong build and a heavy fastball. The heater sits 92-96 with good carry and has flashed up to 100. His best secondary is the changeup, which gets excellent vertical separation in the upper 80s. The slider is fringy and is a questionable third pitch. LaPour commanded the arsenal well in 2025, but lost it a bit this year after an elbow injury cost him most of the spring. There is some starter potential here, but we are more likely looking at a reliever who’s plus potential fastball gives him a high floor. Development of a reliable breaking ball will be key.

34. RHP Steele Murdock (DRAFT)

The Twins drafted Steele Murdock at the top of the 5th round in July, and there is some intriguing talent in this right-handed arm. He struggled with walks at UCSD but posted 12.7 K/9 this year, backed by a plus slider in the low 80s. Spin rates sit in the 2,500 range with sharp bite, generating excellent whiff rates. He leads with a unique cut fastball that gets good carry in the low-to-mid 90s and has flashed up to 99 MPH. Occasionally throws a mid 70s curveball, but it’s mainly a two-pitch mix. He will need to broaden the repertoire and throw more strikes if he wants to stick as a starter, but the reliever profile is already looking very strong. For what it’s worth, he dominated the Cape last summer as a closer, posting a 2.16 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 16.2 innings.

35. OF Teilon Serrano (FCL)

Big raw tools from lefty outfielder Teilon Serrano at just 18 years old, and they have been accompanied by real production in two years of rookie ball. Extremely patient hitter with hit tool concerns, finishing with a 27.3% walk rate and 30.4% strikeout rate in the FCL this season. He has plus power potential, already registering exit velocities north of 109 MPH. He’s a good athlete who has split time between all three outfield spots. A long way out, but there is value in an athletic outfielder with a high-upside bat.

36. OF Yovanny Duran (A)

The 18-year-old switch-hitting outfielder was just promoted after dominating the FCL to the tune of a 146 wRC+ while stealing 36 bags in 52 games. He’s 5’11” with a thin frame and it’s unclear how much raw power there is to tap into, but it’s possible that we could see him develop average pop as he matures. A patient hitter with hope for an average hit tool. Duran has primarily been a center fielder and may have the range to stick there. Not as toolsy as Serrano, but a well-rounded player who is already showing elite production at a very young age.

37. RHP Santiago Castellanos (FCL)

Patience is a virtue with Santiago Castellanos, who dominated the DSL at 16 years old and is one of the more well-rounded international pitchers we have seen come through the Twins system in recent years. His 3 pitch mix is led by a 92-95 MPH fastball with some lively riding action at the top of the zone. It has plus potential as a heater that has ran up to 97 in his teenage years. The slider flashes good bite in the mid 80s while the changeup already has great feel with wicked fade. Its an above-average arsenal across the board that Castellanos throws for a lot of strikes. He is freshly 18 and looks like a really intriguing arm that will hopefully infiltrate full-season ball at some point next season.

38. RHP Thomas Burns (DRAFT)

Thomas Burns is a really fun pick by the Twins in the 8th round. Burns worked strictly as a reliever at Texas this past spring and tallied a ridiculous 43 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. He is 6’3” with a very high-effort delivery that produced some nasty stuff. The fastball is 70 grade, sitting upper 90s with elite carry, overpowering hitters and generating a 40% whiff rate. He tosses a cutter in the upper 80s with above-average traits but a lack of command. The changeup has flashed good specs, but has no feel. Burns already has big league stuff and could make his major league debut as early as next year. His lack of command gives some reason for concern, but the upside out of the bullpen is awesome.

39. OF Jayson Bass (A+)

At 20 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder has turned into a big slugger in the lower levels this season. Jayson Bass generates great bat speed and has ran exit velocities over 110 MPH this season with consistent hard contact and a good feel for making quality contact in the air. His 79% zone contact rate creates hit tool concerns and his aggressive, chase-heavy approach doesn’t help either. The power will have to carry his offensive profile and it’s looking like it might be able to. Bass runs fairly well, stealing 22 bags so far this season. He has played primarily right field where his good arm and solid range fit nicely, but he has also spent some time at first base. Like Fragoza, Jayson Bass wasn’t really on my radar until he started producing in Single-A, but he is here now and looking like a high-upside bat.

40. LHP Garrett Horn (A+)

Garrett Horn was drafted in the 6th round by the Rangers in 2024 and came over in exchange for Danny Coulombe at last year’s trade deadline. The 6’2” lefty has only thrown 16 innings this year due to some shoulder issues, but he is one of the most intriguing lefty arms in the system. The fastball is borderline plus, sitting 92-95 with good extension and elite carry in 3-4 innings starts. Horn pairs it with a good slider in the low 80s that has been a devastating pitch against lefties, and he can morph it into a cutter in the upper 80s. He has struggled with walks since joining the Twins’ org. It is firmly a reliever profile, but one that has a chance to be highly productive in that role. After an injury-riddled season, it may be time to move Garrett Horn to a bullpen role, where he could climb through the minors and debut as soon as 2027.

This is a really quick one because I uh… forgot… yesterday (and today), until now.

The Braves basically acquired three guys at the Trade Deadline. One has already appeared, two have not.

Which will have the biggest impact? Define that however you want.