KNOXVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 03: Cam Collier #6 of the Chattanooga Lookouts celebrates in the dugout during the game between the Chattanooga Lookouts and the Knoxville Smokies at Covenant Health Park on Thursday, September 3, 2026 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Ryan Beatty/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
Tuesday, November 17th at 6:00 PM ET marks the deadline for all 30 MLB clubs to add players to their respective 40-man rosters in order to keep them protected from selection in December’s Rule 5 Draft. Said draft, you’ll recall, is a way of preventing teams from hoarding their best and brightest prospects in the minor leagues while blocking their paths for promotion, a field-leveling administrative mechanism that at least gives a little bet of help balancing the power of the 30 individual franchises.
As MLB Pipeline noted, there are four current minor leaguers who have been in the franchise long enough to be eligible for Rule 5 selection that also find themselves ranked among the Top 30 within the Cincinnati Reds system. That list is headlined by former 1st round pick Cam Collier as well as Carlos Sanchez, who excelled during the 2026 regular season before bursting even further onto the scene by slashing .300/.425/.571 (.997 OPS) in 20 games in Arizona Fall League play.
1B Carter Graham, who knocked the stitches out of baseballs throughout his own breakout 2026 season, also joins them, as does fellow former 1st round pick Jay Allen II.
There are two important caveats worth noting regarding the Rule 5 Draft. Any team that selects a player must keep said player on their active roster for the entire season lest they be forced to offer them back to their original franchise; that means that even though an eligible player may well be uber-talented, they aren’t necessarily going to get picked if they aren’t actually ready for big league play just yet.
The other caveat is 2026 specific, as the Rule 5 Draft is scheduled for December 9th during the Winter Meetings…but that’s after the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire on December 1st. It remains to be seen just how much that will impact all the usual administrative deadlines and procedures we see during typical MLB offseasons, and there’s a chance the draft itself gets kicked much further down the road altogether.
As for the Reds in particular, they have 37 players currently on their 40-man roster after adding back players who finished the regular season on the 60-day IL. So, if they’re to actually protect all four of the players listed above (and/or anyone else that’s eligible and not one of MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 prospects in the system) they’re going to have to remove someone who’s currently holding a spot.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MARCH 31: Jose Fernandez #11 of the Arizona Diamondbacks reacts after hitting a two-run home run against the Detroit Tigers during the eighth inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on March 31, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Tigers 7-5. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This one ended up being quite close, with Jose Fernandez’s debut edging out Merrill Kelly’s complete game in Coors by a single vote [I am exercising executive privilege to call the poll closed at the time of writing. So if there’s a late surge for Kelly between now and this piece going up, I do not care!] This stands in stark contrast to last year, where Eugenio Suarez’s four home-runs was basically unaninimous. It’s actually the first time ever the single-game performance has gone to one in March – the previous record was April 17, shared by the 2018 and 2015 awards. I suspect these are a bit like the Oscars, with recent outings more likely to stick in your mind, so that says a lot about Fernandez’s entry to the major leagues.
It’s probably fair to say that before this spring, few people had even heard of Fernandez. Doing a quick sweep through the SnakePit archives, the only mention before this year was by Preston in a piece from July 2024, who ranked him the #4 shortstop in the system. He wrote, “The Diamondbacks continue to be higher on Fernandez than most… His ceiling is a regular major league shortstop, his floor is a player who washes out in AA.” Well, as with most things, the truth sits somewhere in the middle, though he has easily surpassed the floor. Fernandez got a cup of coffee in Double-A Amarillo that year, then all of 2025 there, posting a line of .272/.321/.454 for an OPS of .775.
He was added to the 40-man Diamondbacks roster to protect him in November, and I did call him a roster dark-horse in a January piece, noting he was the youngest member of the roster. I did say, “If we see him in the majors this year, that suggests something has gone rather wrong,” though in the comments, Wes opined, “I think he may actually be on the verge of breaking out as a prospect.” That breakout certainly happened in spring training. He went 7-for-25, but every one of those hits went for extra bases, with three doubles, a triple and three home-runs. 15 of his first 18 batted balls in official games had exit velocities above 95 mph.
It wasn’t quite enough to get him an Opening Day spot, having already been optioned to Triple-A Reno on March 8. But barely had the season there got under way – after just a single game, in fact – opportunity came knocking for Fernandez. It came in unfortunate fashion, resulting from an injury to Pavin Smith. Left elbow inflammation got him sent to the IL, and Fernandez was brought up as a utility replacement on March 30. The following day, he made his debut, getting the start at third-base. The results were historic – the first Diamondback ever to hit two home-runs in his major-league debut, part of a 3-for-4 day, with four RBI as the team mounted a thrilling comeback from five runs down against Detroit.
It began in less spectacular fashion, Fernandez legging out an infield single off Casey Mize. It had an exit velocity of 73.2 mph, and a launch angle of… um, -35 degrees. But Jose’s speed turned it into his first hit, an xBA of .070 be damned. By the next time he came up, in the fourth inning, Arizona’s win probability was down to just 6.7%. For the Tigers had scored five runs off Brandon Pfaadt in the third. But Jose started the process of the team digging its way out of the hole, with a 408 ft no doubter to deep left field, getting Arizona on the board. That made him the eighth D-back to homer in his first game, but since 2009, the only other had been Seth Beer in 2021. But, wait! There’s more.
The rest of the Arizona offense finally caught up in the eighth inning. A two-run double from Corbin Carroll made it 5-3, then a Gabriel Moreno groundout gave us a one-run game. With two outs, but men on second and third, Fernandez came up again, to face four-time All-Star, Kenley Jansen, who had come out of the bullpen to take on the rookie. After taking a pair of cutters, one for a called strike, the other a ball low, Jansen threw Fernandez a third cutter, and Jose had seen enough. This one went a foot further than his first home-run, becoming a three-run shot to left-center, and provided the final margin of victory in a sterling 7-5 Diamondbacks win. Fernandez became just the eighth player in MLB history with a two-homer debut.
“Stay calm, keep the emotions in check. I knew something like that could happen, and just looked for a pitch… I /returned to my days as a kid. It transports you back to being a kid.” — Jose Fernandez
“He deserves all this credit. We’re so proud of him. He’s a player who came through our system, through our academy, and it’s a great story, a great baseball story. We’ve known about Jose for a long time. We knew he was coming.” — Torey Lovullo
“Kenley’s one of the greatest closers of all time. He has a very unique cutter that he uses at the top of the zone. It really was just Carlos [Santana] and I trying to give him as much information as possible so that he wasn’t surprised the first time he saw it. And I guess he wasn’t.” — James McCann
“I think it’s super cool for Carlos and James to do that for him. And for (Fernandez) to be able to take all of that in and go out there and do what he did, I think it’s pretty special.” — Brandon Pfaadt
Naturally, it was difficult for Fernandez to live up to that debut. Indeed, in the two hundred at-bats Jose had the rest of the season, he managed to hit just one more home-run, and currently has an ongoing streak of 130 ABs since his last one. But nobody can ever take away the most remarkable debut by a position player in franchise history.
ST. LOUIS - 1994: Ozzie Smith of the St. Louis Cardinals flies through the air during a head first dive while attempting to steal second base during an MLB game at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Smith played for the Cardinals from 1982-1996. (Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | Getty Images
As we get closer to an almost certain lockout by Major League Baseball owners, I can’t help but think back to the St. Louis Cardinals team before the strike that ended the 1994 baseball season.
Here’s a quick refresher on exactly what led to the work stoppage in MLB in the summer of 1994. On January 18, 1994, the owners approved a new revenue-sharing plan that included a salary cap. One of the arguments back then was that small-market teams would not be competitive unless local broadcast revenue was shared. Also included in the proposal that would eventually be presented to the players was the elimination of salary arbitration and free agency that would begin after four years instead of six. The proposal was officially submitted to the players association on June 14, 1994 and was officially rejected by the MLBPA on July 18, 1994. I bring up this date because I remember being at Busch Stadium just a few days later. I believe it may have been one of the series against the Atlanta Braves in late July 1994.
The mood at Busch Stadium in late July of 1994 was tepid and that’s my memory being optimistic. One life memory I have is being at one of the concession stands in old Busch Stadium standing behind a couple of fans talking about how the baseball strike was inevitable and they swore they’d never come back to a game if the players went out on strike. It didn’t help that the 1994 St. Louis Cardinals were not a very good team, either.
The St. Louis Cardinals in 1994 had Ray Lankford who was about to enter his prime. He and Todd Zeile had 19 home runs before the season was cut short on August 11, 1994. Ozzie Smith was nearing the end of his playing career. Ozzie was selected to the All-Star game in 1994 at age 39 which made him the oldest player in the game. Gregg Jeffries was arguably one of the best Cardinals players in 1994 with a .325 batting average, 12 home runs and 55 RBI’s. Tom Pagnozzi, Bernard Gilkey, Gerónimo Peña and Mark Whiten were the other regulars in the starting lineup. Brian Jordan was still a year away from making his impact in St. Louis.
Bob Tewksbury was the leader of the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff in 1994 as he notched 12 wins before the season was shortened. Allen Watson, Vicente Palacios, Rick Sutcliffe and Omar Olivares handled the rest of the starting workload. One of the Cardinals biggest issues in 1994 was their bullpen. Mike Pérez started the year as the closer, but struggled with an ERA over 8 before René Arocha took over and saved 11 games before he went down with an elbow injury that required surgery.
The St. Louis Cardinals final game of 1994 was on August 11 when the Cardinals beat the Marlins 8-6 in Florida. They ended the shortened season with a record of 53 wins, 61 losses and 1 tie. That tied game happened on April 6, 1994 when a game against the Reds at Riverfront Stadium was called after 6 innings with the Cardinals and Reds knotted at 8-8 called because of weather. The strike on August 12, 1994 made sure that game would never be finished.
1994 has come back to me over the past few days because some of the same issues I remember being discussed among fans at Busch Stadium that summer are the same ones we’re hearing now. Salary cap, small market teams being competitive, clubs being forced to align their payrolls with a more even structure and owners predicting that the average player contracts would more than double. Those talking points 32 years ago led to the longest work stoppage in MLB history lasting 232 days. Let’s hope that the Major League Baseball owners and players remember that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 17: Travis Bazzana #37 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts after hitting a solo Home Run during the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays in game four of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field on October 17, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After making his MLB debut on April 28th, Travis Bazzana played in 124 games for the Guardians in the 2026 regular season. Despite having his share of ups and downs throughout the season, it was ultimately a successful debut for the young rookie.
In those 124 games, Bazzana got 517 plate appearances. He hit 15 home runs, 22 doubles, 3 triples, stole 19 bases, drew 56 BBs, scored 56 runs, and drove in 57 runs. He ended the season slashing .245/.335/.408. That comes out to a .742 OPS, a 110 OPS+, and a 110 wRC+. This effectively means Bazzana as a hitter was 10% above league average. He was also named an All-Star and finished 9th in the Rookie of the year voting. His 2.8 fWAR was tied for 7th best among AL rookie position players, and all the rookies with more fWAR played more games than Bazzana in 2026 (most played significantly more games).
For a player drafted 1.1, it’s easy to set expectations a bit higher than usual, but it’s important to also recognize how difficult it is to adjust to playing at the MLB level. It’s especially difficult as a young player to do all this while in the heat of a playoff chase that lasted until the second to last game of the season. In general, most experts consider around 2.0 fWAR over a full season the level a “solid everyday MLB starting player” would attain. In his first full season, while missing nearly 40 games, he was almost 50% better than that benchmark.
When you watch Bazzana play, you can see he has the fire of a real competitor. He also showed this season that he’s not afraid of the big moment, hitting two different walk off hits for the Guards.
Bazzana’s speed made him a threat on the bases – not only to steal, but to get extra bases by going 1st to 3rd on singles, and being able to stretch singles into doubles. On Baseball Savant, his Baserunning Run Value was 91st percentile (better than 91% of qualified MLB baserunners). His defense was rocky when he first came up to the majors, but he really cleaned it up in the second half of the season and ended up with a Fielding Run Value right around league average.
As he learns more from the Guardians’ resident expert baserunner, he should be able to cause more mayhem on the bases, and his work ethic makes me confident his defense will continue to improve as well.
With more MLB experience typically comes consistency, and Travis Bazzana looks to be a cornerstone of this offense for at least the next 4-5 seasons (hopefully longer). As he adjusts and gets more used to the pitching across the league, he’ll only get better offensively as well. The future looks bright for this budding star at second base for the Guards.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - JULY 26: Luis Morales #19 of the Athletics pitches against the Minnesota Twins during the sixth inning of the game at Target Field on July 26, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Anne Sullivan then moved Helen Keller’s hand to feel the running water from the stream. “Waa—ter!!!” Helen exclaimed intensely. “Also the ghost runner is stooopid!!!!” “That’s enough for today,” Anne replied. “And yes, you’re right, it’s really dumb.”
Anne Sullivan was an incredible trailblazer for what’s possible in an impossible situation, somehow teaching someone who was blind and deaf how to recognize and pronounce words. This was a task only slightly easier than getting A’s pitchers to keep the ball in park while not walking everyone.
Enter Taylor Smith, who did not write “Cruel Summer” and is trying to avoid another one, and Cam Castro, who will try to do his job with Fidel-ity. They are charged with taking the A’s to the next level, a task that will involve turning the pitching staff from one of the worst in the business to one that performs at a level better than their home ballpark.
Be plenty optimistic that these two imports know a ton about pitching, about developing talent, about bringing out the best in players. But also be realistic that they are not about to replace Anne Sullivan on the “Top 10 ‘Believe it or Not’” lists.
One easy proclamation to make is that “Phew, finally we can expect Luis Morales and Jack Perkins to harness their stuff and pitch like Logan Henderson and Freddy Peralta!” But fixes are not simple matters when you are dealing with what is (or isn’t) between a pitcher’s ears, mechanics their body has internalized that you are trying to “unlearn,” pitchers who may or may not be fully receptive to your preaching, and the reality that “stuff” and “how well you can pitch” just don’t always correlate.
If the premise is “nowhere to go but up,” that the previous regime left every young pitcher stalled and hopeless, Luis Medina and JT Ginn offer a couple quick counterarguments. Similarly, the Brewers and Rays and Red Sox all have failed prospects in their histories whose performance just never played up to their stuff. It’s just the nature of the beast. In other words, even the Rays couldn’t fix Joe Boyle’s control so don’t put all your bullpen hopes in Luke Little’s left arm.
Another hope is to go outside the organization for an infusion of pitching talent, be it proven, “MLB ready,” local or international. As inspiring as it might be to hear that the A’s “plan to be aggressive” starting at some unnamed point that could be now, obstacles abound.
In luring free agents, the A’s will face one more season in a AAA park and are coming off of 98 losses no matter how they came by it. Payroll may be increasing but is not going to rival the top 10 spenders. The bigger free agent deals are known to generally be unwise investments and this off-season most everyone is seeking starting pitching creating a “player’s market”.
So to land someone worth getting excited about, you probably have to accept a player-friendly deal that wipes out much of your existing payroll flexibility for a contract you will later regret. It’s basically “a more expensive Luis Severino”.
In terms of trade, in order to add meaningful starting pitching the A’s would almost certainly have to part with a current key position player, e.g., Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, or a coveted minor leaguer expected to contribute mightily to the team as soon as 2028, e.g., Leo De Vries, Jamie Arnold, Drew Burress.
Perhaps the best bet is an MLB-ready SP not yet proven, the next Dan Haren — who could also be the next Dan Meyer, an equally touted pitcher only he got hurt and was never the same. The type of pitcher the A’s may well have targeted when they were at AAA would be, I don’t know, Luis Morales and Jack Perkins?
Long term, Smith and Castro figure to greatly improve the A’s pitching through enhancement of the very way they draft, develop, and train pitchers from the ground up. But whether they can spin their magic to turn the current group into gems, whether they can bring in enough talent move the needle in the coming year — you might need Anne Sullivan for that and she’s been, er, retired for 90 years.
SCOTTSDALE, AZ - NOVEMBER 07: Jack O'Dowd #18 of the Salt River Rafters prepares to bat during the 2026 Arizona Fall League Home Run Derby at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on Saturday, November 7, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Jill Weisleder/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
This morning, Jack O’Dowd (HM PuRP) was named the Arizona Fall League’s Breakout Player of the Year.
Congratulations to @Rockies Jack O’Dowd on being named Breakout Player of the Year!
An undrafted free agent who played a season in the independent MLB Official Partner Frontier League, Jack O’Dowd led the league with eight doubles, six home runs, and 14 extra-base hits. O’Dowd… pic.twitter.com/NRezuh5lML
The award as well deserved as the Rockies catching prospect led the league with eight doubles, six home runs, and 14 extra-base hits. O’Dowd also ranked third in the AFL in total bases (50) and RBI (21), fourth in slugging (.641), and eighth in hits (24).
Adding to his postseason accolades, the Rockies prospect won the Week 3 NFP Hitter of the Week Award after mashing three home runs and leading the league in total bases, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage.
O’Dowd was named to the National League Fall Stars roster and participated in the AFL Home Run Derby, where he hit 15 home runs and advanced to the semifinal round.
“The Home Run Derby was a ton of fun,” he said. “It was a great experience. I’m very grateful I got to do that, and just the whole All-Star experience, too. They make it really cool for us. And getting to meet so many different guys is one of the best parts, for sure.”
As a reminder, O’Dowd was an undrafted free agent who played the 2025 season with the Billings Mustangs of the Pioneer Independent League. He finished the season with the Double-A Hartford Yard Goats.
The face-to-face meeting lasted more than three hours, according to Japanese news reports, which pointed out that Oda’s talks with representatives of other major-league organizations were in the one- to two-hour range.
Representing the Dodgers were vice president of player personnel Galen Carr, adviser Yogo Suzuki and scout Toru Sugiura. Oda was accompanied by his mother and Yokohama High baseball coach Hiroaki Murata.
Shoki Oda of Team Japan throws in the second inning during a game against Chinese Taipei in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026. Getty Images
Carr later told reporters that he considered Oda to not only be the best 18-year-old pitcher in the world but also the most talented pitcher to come out of Japan since Roki Sasaki.
Oda is known to have previously met with the Yankees, Rangers, Blue Jays, Phillies, Mets, Cardinals and Tigers. He is expected to meet with 12 MLB teams.
Carr said he told Oda if he signs with the Dodgers, the organization would come up with a development plan that is specifically designed for him.
Shoki Oda, left, of Japan interacts with teammate Ritora Yamada after the third inning against Chinese Taipei in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026. Getty Images
Oda has said he is focused on a move to the United States even after his first-round selection by the Tokyo Giants in the recent Nippon Professional Baseball draft.
The Dodgers are industry-wide favorites to sign Oda, who is represented by the same management company that facilitated Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s and Sasaki’s move to the major leagues. Oda has said Yamamoto is his favorite baseball player.
MLB’s upcoming work stoppage could be an obstacle for the Dodgers.
Shoki Oda of Japan throws in the first inning against Chinese Taipei at Taipei Dome in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026. Getty Images
The international player acquisition system is collectively bargained, and baseball’s current collective-bargaining agreement will expire on Dec. 1, at which point franchise owners will lock out the players.
Oda would not be able to sign until a new CBA is ratified.
SCOTTSDALE, AZ - NOVEMBER 10: Dax Kilby #11 of the River Rafters looks on prior to the game between the Javelinas and the River Rafters at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
This year’s Arizona Fall League has come and gone, as the Salt River Rafters’ quest for an unlikely AFL title ended with a semifinal loss on Friday night. It was an up-and-down autumn for them and the Yankees’ contingent, who had some definite high points, but also some deep struggles. Starting with Sunday’s Fall Stars Game, here’s how it went down in the final week of the AFL. As a reminder, if you want a quick rundown on who was in the desert this month, check here.
November 8 (AFL Fall Stars Game): Three Yankees participated in the Fall Stars Game on Sunday, which the NL won 7-4. Dax Kilby went 0-for-2 with two strikeouts, and Kyle West did the same. At least Chris Veach did his job, getting the last out of the fourth inning.
November 10 (Rafters 6, Javelinas 14): Returning from the pseudo-All-Star Break, Salt River got blasted by the team they’d eventually go on to play in the postseason. Kilby was removed in the fourth in what I can only describe as load management, given it happened to him again the following night and he’s DHing all week. Core Jackson went 1-for-4 with two RBIs, and West went 0-for-2 with two walks and two strikeouts. Eleven of the 14 runs were allowed by Mack Estrada and JT Etheridge, who both struggled, but converted catcher Antonio Gomez threw a scoreless inning.
November 11 (Rafters 12, Solar Sox 4): In their regular-season finale, the Rafters rallied from a fifth-inning deficit to blast the Solar Sox in a seven-inning game to finish the regular season at 14-15. Kilby again left early after a hitless day with a walk and two stolen bases. Jackson had one of his better games of the entire fall, going 2-for-3 with an RBI, two walks, two stolen bases, and three runs scored.
November 12 (AFL Quarterfinals, Rafters 5, Solar Sox 2): Thursday night marked the start of a three-day postseason, where Salt River defeated Mesa for the second consecutive day in the quarterfinals. Kilby went 1-for-3 with a walk, and West went 0-for-1 with three walks and two runs scored.
November 13 (AFL Semifinals, Rafters 5, Javelinas 6): That’s the end of the line, folks. The Rafters fell short in a back-and-forth affair and saw their season end on Friday night. Kilby took it on the chin, 0-for-5 with a pair of K’s, West went 0-for-4 with an RBI forceout, Jackson went 2-for-4 with a pair of hard-hit RBI singles, and Chris Veach tossed 2.1 shutout innings.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 06: Michael King #34 of the San Diego Padres pitches in the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game three of the National League Division Series at Petco Park on October 06, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to the 2026-27 edition ofSmash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today, we continue the series with the prospect of bringing Michael King back to his home region.
Who is he, and where does he come from?
He’s Michael King and he’s local! The right-handed pitcher went to high school at Bishop Hendricken in Rhode Island and played his college ball at Chestnut Hill for the Boston College Eagles. The Marlins drafted him in 2016 before a trade to the Yankees where he spent his first five MLB seasons. The Padres acquired him in the monster return for Juan Soto. He excelled in San Diego with Cy Young votes in 2024 and a 3.15 ERA in three seasons for the Padres.
Still only entering his age-32 season with a career 3.23 ERA (1.86 ERA in 29 postseason innings), King has plenty left to give on the mound and will get a multi-year, high-AAV deal on the open market.
Is he any good?
He’s not an ace but he’s a No. 2 nearly every team in baseball would feel great about. King continues to improve in stuff and durability – he logged a career-best 185 innings in 2026 in his age-31 season. His strikeout numbers took a step back last season (7.7 K/9), though his Baseball Savant page is still a thing of beauty – especially when it comes to limiting hard contact.
TLDR, just give me his 2026 stats
King went 12-10 in 32 starts with a 3.21 ERA for the Padres. He pitched 185 innings with a 1.178 WHIP and 159 strikeouts.
Would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
He’d be a great Sonny Gray replacement to slot in behind Garrett Crochet and take pressure off of Payton Tolle to be the Scottie Pippen of the rotation at this point – even after a Rookie of the Year-caliber campaign for the lefty in 2026.
Crochet-King-Tolle-Suárez-Bello? Works for me.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
Is he really a necessity for the 2027 Red Sox? Not really.
The Red Sox clearly had offensive deficiencies last postseason (and honestly in 2025 too). Even with the Jake Bauers news (announced while writing this!), the lineup is clearly the priority of the winter. That’s obvious given how good the rotation was even without Crochet last year. Sonny Gray departs, but the group is certainly still a strength. King would make them better, but he probably shouldn’t be the priority for Boston’s resources.
What would it take to get him?
Keith Law of The Athletic speculated a multi-year deal in the ballpark of $30 million AAV. Gray is not returning on a $30 million option, so would the Red Sox really turn around and give that out on a multi-year deal for a 32-year-old pitcher? Seems unlikely.
Show me a cool highlight.
King has been a postseason demon – most recently flirting with a postseason no-hitter against the Cubs in the Wild Card round this year.
He also dominated the Braves with 12 strikeouts in the 2024 Wild Card round as well.
Smash or pass?
If the Red Sox still believe they have room to improve the offense in addition to adding King, then smash. Otherwise, the sacrifice to sign King is not worth the attention turn from the clear priority of making sure this lineup is finally October.
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 30: Rowdy Tellez #11 of the Atlanta Braves speaks with Luke Williams #37 of the Atlanta Braves before Game Two of the Wild Card Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on September 30, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Jack Casey/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Despite limited appearances with the Atlanta Braves during the 2026 season, 1B/DH Rowdy Tellez made a kinda-sorta memorable impression.
How Acquired
Atlanta signed Tellez as a minor league free agent at the end of Spring Training. After playing in the World Baseball Classic with Mexico, Tellez inked a deal with the Braves on March 23, 2026.
What were the expectations?
With Matt Olson in the midst of his consecutive games streak keeping first base on lock, and fellow lefty-swinging first base/designated hitter Dominic Smith finding success early in the regular season, Tellez was an emergency option for the team at Triple-A.
As the organization has done in the past — and again in 2026 — the Braves wanted a proven big league regular at Triple-A should Atlanta need to fill a first base gap during the regular season.
Performance-wise, Tellez came into 2026 the veteran of eight major league seasons with five major league teams, but had little to show for it: 0.1 fWAR in over 2,600 career PAs. While his bat had a fair bit of pop (.203 ISO), he generally underperformed his inputs (.314 wOBA, .330 xwOBA) due to a tendency to hit fly balls to center. Combine that with poor play at first base and no speed, and you get a replacement level guy.
Up until 2023, Tellez was actually hitting at an above-average clip. Since then, his career had kind of collapsed, as he was sub-replacement with the Brewers in ‘23, the Pirates in ‘24, and the Mariners in ‘25, before doing just enough to avoid finishing below replacement for a third straight year in a tail-end stint with the Rangers. As such, Tellez’ forecast via projections was yet another “replacement level at best” affair.
2026 results
Tellez played in only seven regular season games for Atlanta but made the most of his opportunities, ish. In 11 PAs he got two hits, including a pinch-hit homer against his former club, the Brewers, and walked once. In his sole start of the year, two days after hitting the pinch-hit homer, he got his only start, which drove in two.
Despite only being around for about three weeks, and taking a ride on the DFA/minor league deal carousel after the Braves removed him from the roster, the Braves nonetheless opted to carry Tellez on the Wild Card Series roster, and then actually kept him over Dominic Smith for the NLDS. He appeared in three NLDS games, garnering four PAs that included two walks, a strikeout, and a field out.
Tellez didn’t actually exceed replacement level, but it was all of 11 PAs. His previous low in an MLB season was 73 PAs in his debut year.
What went right?
Had Tellez joined the Braves at the beginning rather than the end of Spring Training, could he have earned the left-handed designated hitter role that Smith held for much of the year. As it it worked out, when the season concluded, it was Tellez on Atlanta’s active playoff roster and Smith on the outside looking in.
Though it was a tiny sample, Tellez actually had an incredible 11 PAs. He had three strikeouts and two easy flyouts, but did pretty well in his other six PAs:
Robbed of a bloop hit
Liner hit right to an infielder
The 106 mph two-run single
A walk
A warning track out that might be a homer if not for the fact that it was in San Diego
His pinch-hit homer
Put those together and you get a .506 xwOBA… with only a .331 wOBA and 108 wRC+ to show for it.
This then continued in the postseason in even more abbreviated fashion, because his one field out to go with two walks and a strikeout was a 108 mph screamer hit (off old-new Brave Evan Phillips) right at the right field: an aggregate .349 wOBA and .560 xwOBA.
As it shook out, Tellez’ biggest contribution game in NLDS Game Three, where he pinch-hit for Ha-Seong Kim against Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the tying run, with the Braves down 3-0 in the fifth. He drew a walk (and was replaced by Brewer Hicklen), possibly setting up a key rally for the Braves… but they managed just two groundouts and came away with loading the bases with just a single run. (The game also ended in that 3-1 score.)
What went wrong?
Tellez didn’t secure an MLB-affiliated opportunity until after the conclusion of the World Baseball Classic. His time on the big league roster was limited to seven games, the fewest since he debuted in 2018. Other than the shortened 2020 season, he’s appeared in more than 100 games every season going back to 2019.
He hit okay at Gwinnett (.364 wOBA and 116 wRC+,.355 xwOBA), but that’s probably somewhat disappointing for a longtime MLB veteran whose only contribution tends to be his bat. Still, probably the biggest disappointment is that he executed well in the limited opportunities he got, but hit the ball right at guys in a few key spots.
And, there was him getting carved up by Mason Miller in his only start, with a runner on third and one out in extra innings. It happens to pretty much everyone, but that one PA tipped his season WPA tally into well into the negative.
2027 outlook
Tellez will play next season at 32. He’s a poor defender limited to 1B/DH, and isn’t an asset at first base. He’s a walk-and-power guy, through and through, but both of those have been more sporadic since his career year in 2023.
His days a regular at the big league level may be over — but he’s probably still an okay bench bat who can provide quality PAs against right-handed pitchers. That bodes will for him to find a job as a big league reserve or Triple-A stash. A return to Atlanta on a minor league deal could be plausible, but with the labor situation, Tellez will likely have to wait until Spring Training — whenever that is — to find an opportunity.
He still projects as replacement level at best going forward.
Here we have a nice view of the iconic Wrigley Field scoreboard, with the simple (non-digital) message board below it, a board that existed from 1982 until the Ricketts family bought the team in 2009. This photo was sent to me by BCB reader Cary Noren — and again, a reminder, if you have any Cubs/Wrigley photos you want me to sleuth, send ‘em along!
My first instinct was that this was in the later parts of that era with the “46” as the Cubs starting pitcher, which would be Ryan Dempster. Dempster started eight games against the Pirates at Wrigley Field during his Cubs career. But none of those eight games match the innings we see on the board.
So, I had to look at some other pitchers.
There were two other Cubs starting pitchers who wore 46 during this time frame: Steve Trachsel (1993-99) and Jason Bere (2001-02). (Trachsel also returned briefly to the Cubs in 2007, but did not start any games against the Pirates at Wrigley that year.)
Bere started four times against the Pirates at Wrigley in his two years with the Cubs. None of those games match what we see here.
Okay, so the Cubs No. 46 pitcher is Trachsel.
Trachsel started 186 games for the Cubs between 1993 and 1999. Oddly, only five of them were against the Pirates at Wrigley Field.
Only one of the five games matches what we see here. This game was played Tuesday, June 3, 1997. We are about to enter the bottom of the second inning and there’s no score. You can tell it’s an inning break — there’s a non-baseball message on the board and no batter, ball, strike or out is indicated.
The Cubs lost this game 3-1. The Pirates scored a run in the top of the third and the Cubs matched it with a solo home run by Scott Servais in the bottom of the inning. But that’s all the Cubs could score. Trachsel threw eight solid innings, allowing two runs on eight hits and striking out seven, but the Cubs did not muster any more offense, with just four other hits, all singles, apart from Servais’ home run. Mel Rojas, who had a terrible half year for the Cubs before being traded, allowed a run in the ninth that wrapped up the scoring. Attendance was 17,317, which pretty much matches the half-full bleachers we see. The No. 34 who started for the Pirates that afternoon was Steve Cooke.
What I find interesting is that in 1997, there were still very few people in the bleachers wearing team gear — just one Cubs T-shirt that I can see and just a few Cubs caps. It would take another few years before people regularly wore team gear to Wrigley Field.
Just another slice of history from our favorite ballpark, now from nearly 30 years ago.
NEW YORK - APRIL 04: Xavier Nady #22 of the New York Yankees at bat against the Chicago Cubs during their game on April 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images) | Getty Images
On March 23, 2009, Joe Girardi made what seemed at the time to be a fateful decision. The Yankees skipper called Nick Swisher into his office to let him know he’d lost out on the starting right field job. Despite turning some heads in camp, Swisher was still on the heels of a disastrous season in Chicago and battling a well-regarded incumbent for the job. The normally ebullient Swisher was crestfallen, retreating to a half-hearted platitude. “I guess we’re just going to see how it plays out,” he said to the press after that day’s game.
Things played out pretty well for Swisher that year. A little over seven months later, he stood in right field as Robinson Canó handled a routine groundball for the final out of the Yankees’ 27th title. The forgotten man who’d beat him out in March was forced to watch from the sidelines.
Xavier Nady was born in 1978 as the sixth generation of Xavier Nadys, a tradition dating back to 16th century France. He grew up in Monterey County, taking home Northern California High School Player of the Year honors at Salinas High before being drafted in the fourth round by the Cardinals. Nady passed up pro ball for the college ranks, heading to UC Berkeley. He left in 1997 as the school’s all-time leader in home runs in RBIs, riding his success to a second-round draft selection by the Padres.
The 21-year-old had the uncommon distinction of jumping straight from college ball to the major leagues. Even more uncommon, he received a single at-bat in a September 2000 game, recording a base hit, before spending the next two years honing his skills in the minors. Nady’s hit tool played immediately, as he became a top-40 prospect per Baseball America. When he got the call to the Show once again in ‘03, the Padres had every reason to believe this promotion would be for good.
As with so many top prospects, though, Nady struggled to fulfill expectations. In his next three seasons in San Diego, while splitting time between the outfield and first base, he hit below league average, slashing an underwhelming .262/.319/.413. A surprising 82-80 division champion (MLB’s all-time worst for a full season until the .500 Astros of 2026), the Padres gave him just five trips to the plate during the Division Series sweep at the hands of the Cardinals.
Following the 2005 campaign, San Diego cut bait, flipping Nady to the Mets for Mike Cameron. Thus began an odyssey that would lead Nady to play for eight teams over his next eight seasons. He hit a little better over the next two years with New York and Pittsburgh, performing well enough to maintain a starting job but, with a limited defensive profile, struggling to provide much value. Entering the ‘08 season, at the age of 29, it seemed Nady’s die was cast.
That’s what made his performance that year so shocking. Through July 25th, he was hitting .330 with 13 homers and 57 RBIs, joining Nate McLouth and Jason Bay to form one of the best outfields in baseball.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, their franchise had little else going for it in an eventual 95-loss campaign (their 16th of a staggering 20 consecutive losing seasons), making Nady expendable. The Yankees, struggling to keep pace in a strong AL East with the defending champion Red Sox and the upstart newly-christened Rays, acquired him in advance of the Trade Deadline alongside lefty reliever Dámaso Marte in exchange for a package of prospects led by outfielder José Tábata.
Nady provided an immediate jolt, winning AL Player of the Week honors in his first full week in pinstripes as he went 10-for-19 with three homers and 10 RBI. While he failed to hit for average like he had in Pittsburgh, he ended up with 12 long balls in 59 games, helping to fortify an aging lineup dealing with injuries to Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui.
It wouldn’t be enough to keep the Yankees from missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, though, leading to an offseason full of upheaval. Alongside more prominent moves to acquire CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira via free agency, that included a trade for Swisher from the White Sox.
After nabbing the starting right field job in the spring, Nady entered the ‘09 season with enthusiasm and focus, resolved to improve his plate discipline, the one knock against what was an exceptional season at the plate the year prior. Alas, it was not to be. Just a week into the season, he suffered a UCL injury. Nady put up a good fight, attempting a minor-league rehab stint in July, but ultimately required Tommy John surgery, ending his season and, with it, his tenure in the Bronx. It would be Marte, the far less heralded piece of the Pirates swap the year prior, who became an unlikely October hero, making seven scoreless appearances between the ALCS and World Series as a critical lefty specialist in the Yankees’ title run.
The itinerant Nady signed with the Cubs the next year but couldn’t recreate the magic of 2008. As he continued to battle injuries, he bounced to Arizona, then Washington, and then San Francisco, never again finding sustained success as he continued to struggle with debilitating injuries. In 2014, at the age of 35, he returned to the Padres for a brief swansong before hanging up his cleats for good.
Nady retired to San Diego, where he spent some time as a minor-league hitting coach in the Padres organization. As of 2020, he was working as a scout and recruiter for Boras Corp. While Nady’s career never reached the heights for which he may have hoped, he battled through adversity to play big-league ball for parts of 12 seasons. “I always wondered what could have been without the injuries, but I guess that comes with the nature of the game,” he said in 2020. “I felt honored to put on a big league uniform for all or parts of 12 seasons. There were ups and downs, injuries I couldn’t control that challenged me mentally and physically, but they gave me a deeper understanding of how good things can be and was I thankful for that.”
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 16: Jonathan Loáisiga #43 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field on September 16, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
There are multiple reasons why the Phillies have not advanced at all in the playoffs since their run to the World Series in 2022. The most cited culprit is the offense, the group of players that goes dormant almost every October once the bright lights come on and the pitching gets tougher. But there is a good argument to be made that the bullpens that were built each year to help supplement a terrific starting rotation have been equally as responsible for the earlier and earlier and earlier exits the Phillies have suffered.
This offseason, the task at hand is once again to create a bullpen that has enough firepower to last an entire season and still have some effective arms once the postseason begins should the Phillies find themselves playing once again. At the end of 2026, there seemed to be only two reliable arms that Don Mattingly would call upon when the games got close. Dave Dombrowski bears some responsibility for this, but he at least had tried at the beginning of last year to build a group that would be resiliant.
What lies ahead for the Phillies this offseason? Can they muster up enough players that would choose to come here to build something close to a reliable bullpen?
The hierarchy right now for the major league bullpen probably sits somewhere like this:
Jhoan Duran Jonathan Bowlan Alex McFarlane Tim Mayza Caleb Kilian
These are the five that I feel most comfortable saying will begin 2027 in the bullpen with a pretty iron grip on a job. There are others here that are available as options:
Pitcher
Minor league options remaining
Orion Kerkering
3
Tanner Banks
1
Chase Shugart
0
Kyle Backhus
2
Grant Holman
1
Nolan Hoffman
1
Then you’ve got the minor leaguers that are currently Rule 5 draft eligible, but do possess some skills that are of interest:
Pitcher
Left or Right Handed?
Estibenzon Jimenez
right
Christian McGowan
right
Wen-Hui Pan
right
Max Lazar
right
Andrew Hoffman
right
Notice what you don’t see a lot of?
Left handed relief pitching is going to be a priority for the team this offseason. I’d assume that that will be a target they spend a lot of time on as they poke around the markets. Hopefully, they find some that have minor league options as well.
Free agent market
My goodness, where does one begin?
The free agent market for relief pitching is rife with options. Many of those options are not going to be ones the Phillies are interested in for a myriad of reasons. Instead, let’s focus on things the Phillies could be interested in. We have seen a trend when they have traded for relievers at the deadline where they are looking for velocity. They have traded for pitchers like Jhoan Duran, Carlos Estevez and Gregory Soto since 2022, three arms that have the ability to throw a baseball at high speeds. They have signed Brad Keller and David Robertson, guys with (at the time) strikeout stuff. They definitely have a type. So if we’re to scour the free agent market in search of who would be the options they would want to bring in, we can start there.
Bryan Abreu – The assumption here is that the team isn’t really looking for closer types. They already have one in Duran that is arguably one of the five best relievers in the sport right now. Signing someone like Abreu would give them a pitcher from the right side that has shown quality strikeout stuff in the past, but maybe had a bit of a blip in 2026. Abreu’s rates all went in the wrong direction – walk rate up, strikeout rate down – which is a bit concerning, but not truly fatal. He was still getting chase on the mound thanks slider/four-seam combination that has the quality to induce it. Last year’s struggles may even have cost him some money and/or years on the free agent market, making him more of a target for a front office that isn’t really keen on giving on long deals.
Pete Fairbanks – Speaking of rough seasons. Brought in as a possible “one year, let’s trade him at the deadline” candidate for Miami, Fairbanks proceeded to have one of the worst seasons of his career from a baseball card perspective. From the point of view of looking at peripherals, Fairbanks feels like the perfect candidate for the “Dombrowski Special” where he signs a veteran reliever for one year and $10 million. He had some issues (too many walks, too much hard contact) that would maybe have teams look at him a different way, but has the potential to rebound with maybe some better healthy and/or a few tweaks to his arsenal.
Jason Adam – Having two different injuries at the end of two different seasons makes the prospect of signing Adam a bit hazy. He ruptured his quadriceps tendon at the end of 2025, then had a right shoulder strain in the middle of 2026. Those are some serious injuries, but Adam did come back healthy from both issues. When he was healthy, he had good looking numbers on the scoreboard, but under the hood, things are iffy. He struck out almost half the number of batters he did the year before while also seeing his home run rate jump. Could it be the tic he lost in velocity? Maybe, but there would probably be enough success in his past that the team could take a stab at him.
Jonathan Loaisiga – This might be one of the better under the radar buys for a team looking into a reliever. Loaisiga will not have the same whiff or strikeout rates as others, but take a look at that Savant page. That’s a lot of red from a guy that entered 2026 on a minor league deal. Whatever tweaks the Diamondbacks made to Loaisiga’s game worked wonders as he amassed a pretty impressive 2.42/2.88 ERA/FIP season. Consider also that the pitching coach for Arizona (prior to getting let go) was Brian Kaplan, a former assistant to Caleb Cotham. There may be some shared ideas that Loaisiga could carry over were he to choose Philadelphia as his destination. This feels like a good buy at a not exorbitant price.
Blake Treinen – If the Braves can have a free agent piece from the Dodgers, maybe the Phillies can get their own. Of course, they’d be getting the inferior option were they to get Treinen, but again, maybe that would also drive price down. Treinen vacillated between good and bad in his last two years with the Dodgers, walking too many and giving up too many home runs. He’d be coming here as a solid middle inning pitcher as opposed to the late game monster Evan Phillips might be with the Braves, but considering the needs the Phillies have in the bullpen, solid might be good enough.
Trade market
Now, here is where things can get interesting. Usually, teams don’t really want to make big trades for relievers until they see whether what they have built in the offseason is working or not. That way, at the trade deadline, they can adjust on the fly and make a move then. This, though, is a more unusual offseason thanks to the impending threat of a lockout. Teams have indicated that they might be more inclined to trade veterans in an effort to protect younger players that could end up being more valuable if a salary cap is instituted. So, there might be an unusual amount of veteran relievers on the trade block than usual.
That doesn’t mean we will see a blockbuster involving someone like, say, Mason Miller getting moved. Usually, when you see someone of Miller’s talent moved, it is for younger, more cost controlled players that were just mentioned as being possibly even more valuable post-CBA finalization.
Predicted outcome
There will be relievers.
Oh yes, part of this offseason’s moves, whenever they might happen, will be relievers entering the Phillies fray. One would have to assume that based on their comments, they are looking to get a few different relievers to add to the mix while also maintaining a spot or two to have the ability to cycle back and forth between Lehigh Valley if needed. That would indicate to me that signing one veteran to a major league deal is almost guaranteed, but having multiple options on minor league deals is an avenue that is being heavily explored. If any of these relievers that they are talking to have minor league options, that would probably vault them to the very front of the line in negotiations.
Me personally, I’d like to see them roll the dice and sign Jonathan Loaisiga and Steven Okert, then flood their roster with minor league deals of higher upside plays, looking specifically at guys that are maybe coming off injury. Names like Hunter Harvey, Robert Stephenson, players of this ilk that might be fine with playing in Lehigh Valley with some kind of out clause to try and rebuild value that the Phillies can either use or discard if necessary.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 03: Ty France #25 of the San Diego Padres looks on before game one of the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on October 03, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
When speaking to the media earlier this week, David Stearns identified first base as an area the Mets would look to upgrade, either with a full-time player or a platoon partner for Jared Young. Since then, two names have popped up as potential fits for that role: Alec Bohm and Ty France.
France is coming off the best offensive year of his career after some time spent in the wilderness. After a strong start to his career, including an All-Star appearance in 2022, France hit the skids with authority. After signing with the Mariners for a $6.68 million deal ahead of the 2024 season, he was placed on outright waivers in July, putting up -0.2 bWAR. He continued to struggle with the Reds, with whom he signed for the remainder of that season. After a slightly better season in 2025 split between the Twins and Blue Jays, France returned to the club he broke in with, the Padres, on a minor league deal and put up one of the best years of his career.
In 2026, France batted .295/.363/.502 with 21 home runs and 24 doubles. France is entering his age 32 season, and will likely be riding that to the biggest payday of his career.
Bohm is in a very different situation, having lost most of the luster on what was once a solid, if unspectacular, big league career with the Phillies. Bohm’s 2026 line of .249/.315/.383 with 15 home runs looks miraculous when compared to his early season struggles, where he carried a .433 OPS through the first six weeks of the season.
Bohm is also not a natural first baseman, though calling him natural at any position is somewhat misleading. However, compared to his butchery at third base, first base for Bohm makes a lot of sense. Bohm logged 424.2 innings at first base in 2026, committing six errors and putting up one Defensive Runs Saved Above Average.
Either of these players would be competing with the aforementioned Jared Young, who impressed on both sides of the ball in his extended look last season due to the departure of Pete Alonso and the non-entity that was Jorge Polanco. Young batted .266/.330/.429 while playing 641.2 innings at first.
There’s an outside chance that Polanco would get another crack at first base, but it seems like DH or bust for Polanco in 2027.
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 13: Dylan Crews #3 of the Washington Nationals runs to home plate and scores on a hit by José Tena #8 during the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners at Nationals Park on June 13, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images) | Getty Images
While Seiya Suzuki’s market with the Seattle Mariners seems genuine, the M’s are more known for the road of reclamation than diamond-shaped pegs in diamond-shaped holes. OF Dylan Crews has been discussed as a “popular name in trade talks” according to multiple reports, including Washington Nationals beat writer Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic. The right-handed hitting 24 year old has above-average range, checking boxes with every consecutive descriptor in this sentence for Seattle’s goals this winter. Seattle and Washington have well-aligned surpluses and needs, giving these rumors enough heft to consider in greater detail.
Crews is better known than most 79 wRC+ hitters with a .217/.285/.363 line with 225 big league games under their belt. The No. 2 overall pick in 2023 was co-stars with RHP Paul Skenes on a staggeringly dominant Louisiana State University squad which won the College World Series. Raised in the suburbs of Orlando, FL, Crews was considered a shoo-in, high-floor prospect with his mature, high-OBP approach, excellent athleticism, and oodles of contact paired with laser-sharp contact. He debuted in 2024, after starting the year in Double-A Harrisburg and could have easily been the heartbeat of the new era of Nationals baseball.
Instead, he’s seemingly on the block. That’s because his progression at the plate has been what many scouts feared. Here’s what the Baseball Prospectus scouting team had to say for Crews ahead of the 2024 campaign, see if you can spot the harbinger:
The second-overall pick in last year’s Amateur Draft, Crews is viewed by many as the best collegiate position prospect since Adley Rutschman. He already looks like a polished, five-tool player, flashing strong exit velocities with regularity, showing great bat-to-ball skills and excellent strike zone judgment. The glove should play in center field and Crews’ speed should make him a threat on the basepaths. You need to squint to find a weakness in his game, but it’s possible that a propensity to hit the ball on the ground might make his over-the-fence power simply good as opposed to elite. Crews demolished low-minors pitching before finishing the season with a brief stop at Double-A. He has an outside chance of making his major-league debut late this year and should be thrilling fans in the District of Columbia for years to come.
It’s the grounders, stupid. Hard contact on the ground is better than middling contact on the ground, to be sure, but if you’re hitting the ball hard into the dirt you’re sacrificing the extra-base hit potential many players need to thrive in a league where high-level defensive athleticism and size comes more standard each year. This was the concern with Crews, as it has been with many otherwise exceptional talents, including Julio Rodríguez. For the Nats, that had to change.
After disappointing 2024-25 campaigns, Washington made a bit of a statement by sending Crews down to Triple-A Rochester at the end of spring training. The goal there was to work on improving his mechanics and getting the ball into the air more. Working with Rochester hitting coach Shawn O’Malley, under the visitations and guidance of Nats minor league director of hitting C.J. Gillman (who is, you may recall, now the Mariners hitting coach), Crews had the best minor league stretch of his career by expected outcomes, and earned a May call-up back to the bigs.
And yet… the breakout didn’t quite come. While it was his best big league season at age 24, and not injury-hampered by the oblique malady that waylaid his 2025, a .223/.289/.374 line with an 82 wRC+ in 443 PA across 109 games is more fourth outfielder than second coming. You really can read into his line what you want to see, which makes it so tough to evaluate what Washington might want for him, though they’ve seemed to invest in James Wood, Daylon Lile, and Jacob Young as their trio of primary outfielders.
Do you buy Crews as the slugger in the clip below, who chopped his groundball rate by over 10% from the year before and remained within the navigational beacons at a 24.2% strikeout rate? Might we see a leap forward since he undershot his xwOBA by over 20 points, put up strong barrel and hard hit rates, and spent much of this year still getting used to mechanical adjustments? And is his above-average in-zone contact rate enough to draw a contrast between him and the inevitable Jarred Kelenic concerns?
Or do you see the pedestrian walk rates since turning pro and fear the balanced profile that made Crews such a dynamic threat is simply not cut out for big league ball. Kelenic concerns may not derive from his contact rates per se, but the fact that he’s done nearly all his damage thus far on fastballs. Perhaps you like his lefty-mashing ways, but don’t want to see Seattle pay a premium for essentially a weak-side platoon bat.
If Crews were a Mariner already, it’d be enough to sell me on at least another part-time role. But acquiring him would require moving one of their starting pitchers, almost certainly. It would likely cost Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock to make the move, working in part off what our sister site Federal Baseball put together as value options for some potential trades. Getting a will-be-25 year old who won’t reach arbitration until at least 2028, with a peerless pedigree and a floor as a solid defensive outfielder who can cover every position and spell Brendan Donovan or Lazaro Montes is highly appealing.
But is he worth Seattle’s time to acquire? I am on the fence. If you see Crews as taking somewhat incremental strides forward the way hitters often do, I’m still hesitant. Baseball Prospectus sees Crews more favorably, having him as a league-average hitter by their Deserved Runs Created+ metric, accounting for his batted ball profile beyond just his results. That makes him already a big league regular, given good foot speed and glovework, with the upside for genuine excellence that’s rarely available at this age.
In a season Seattle might not get tons of time to acclimate due to the owners planned lockout, acquiring a corner outfielder who is already well-known by part of the coaching staff is an added edge. But wow, Crews has to hit, and in a season at long last likely make or break for Jerry Dipoto, it’s a big leap to put perhaps your primary upgrade of the season on a guy who’s next big year in the pros will be his first.
