2026 Cubs: Know your enemy, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are tanking.

Oh, they can deny it all they want and claim it’s a “rebuild that’s not a rebuild” like a certain team we know did, but this is full-out tanking.

It’s not surprising, given that they have a new executive in charge in Chaim Bloom, their new President of Baseball Operations who formerly held that role with the Red Sox. And, in fact, Bloom made a couple of key trades with his former team, sending Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to Boston. (That means that Cubs fans won’t see Willson at Wrigley this year, and in fact the Cubs won’t see him at all until the final three games of the 2026 regular season.)

What’s left is… a bunch of guys. Their No. 1 starter is (checks notes) probably Dustin May, who they got in one of those Boston deals. May’s biggest claim to “fame” is that he’s been injured in almost all of his six MLB seasons. He was once a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball. But, you know, prospects bust.

The rest of their rotation is guys who have either failed elsewhere or are wannabes: Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore… you get the idea. The bullpen, same thing, mostly.

Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson are probably the Cardinals’ two best hitters and both have been said to be potential trade targets before the season begins. I wouldn’t be surprised. They don’t have a single player on their roster who hit even 20 home runs in 2025.

Rebuilds can work. Just ask Theo Epstein, for example. But the Cardinals are likely going to have to hit rock bottom before they come back. Okay by me.

A bit of history to look out for: The Cardinals lost 91 games in 2023. The last time they had lost that many before then was 1990 (92 losses), and before that 93 in 1978. However, no Cardinals team has lost more than 93 games since 1913 (!), when they lost 99, and no Cardinals team has lost 100 since 1908 (105). Both of the last two numbers could be threatened this year. Seems Oli Marmol likely won’t last past this year as manager.

And by the time the Cubs see the Cardinals, they could be buried in last place in the NL Central. The first Cubs/Cardinals game is Game 58 of the Cubs season. Then they’ll play 10 times in a 37-game stretch from early July to mid-August, and not after that. Thanks, schedule-makers.

Key departures: Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Miles Mikolas, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Andre Granillo

Key arrivals: Scott Blewett, Dustin May, Hunter Dobbins, Justin Bruihl, Ryne Stanek, Zack Thompson, Nelson Velázquez, George Soriano, Jared Shuster

At Wrigley Field: July 3-4-5 and Aug. 14-15-16

At St. Louis: May 29-30-31 and July 27-28-29-30

SB Nation team site:Viva el Birdos

This series will continue tomorrow with a look at the NL East.

Mets 2026 Season Preview: MJ Melendez will look to get his career back on track in Queens

Feb 21, 2026; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; New York Mets right fielder MJ Melendez (1) returns to the dugout against the Miami Marlins during the fifth inning at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

MJ Melendez, once upon a time, was a top prospect in the game of baseball.

The now 27 year old was a 2017 second round pick (52nd overall) by the Kansas City Royals out of high school, and ascended through the minor leagues rather quickly. Originally a catcher, Melendez reached High-A ball in 2019 before losing a year of his minor league career due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. He did not miss a beat in 2021 despite the lost year, hitting .288/.386/.625 (1.011 OPS), which validated his top prospect rankings by Baseball Prospectus (35th), Baseball America (42nd) and MLB Pipeline (51st) prior to the 2022 season.

That 2022 season saw him make his Major League debut, though involved a position change as well. With Salvador Perez ensconced behind the plate for the Royals, they opted to move Melendez to the corner outfield to put his bat in the lineup, which is how it went from 2022 to 2024. The results were, well, just alright. He hit okay enough; .217/.313/.393 (97 wRC+) in 2022, .235/.316/.398 (93 wRC+) in 2023, and .206/.273/.400 (86 wRC+) in 2024, but a whopping -16 Outs Above Average over those three seasons made him a below average starter overall.

2025 was nothing short of a disaster for Melendez. He played in just 23 Major League games, hit .083/.154/.167, and was demoted to Triple-A for the rest of the season before getting non-tendered in the early offseason, which brings us to his 2026.

Melendez signed a one year, $1.5m deal with the Mets in mid-February, which gave both him and the Mets a few options — literally and figuratively. The Mets have one bench spot rather open, and the right field position theoretically open (though, in my personal opinion, I would’ve thought Carson Benge had the fast track to the spot). Melendez will be in camp with the Mets to compete for that bench spot. However, with the signing and subsequent comments by Mike Tauchman, it sounds like the Mets signed Tauchman with the idea that he will have the first crack at the bench spot. So, where does that leave Melendez?

Melendez, despite never really taking off at the Major League level, still has a minor league option to his name. In all likelihood, the Mets signed Melendez with the idea of trying to fix some things about his game to get him back to the play that made him a top prospect five years ago, and doing so in Triple-A, with no impact on the Major League team and with as little eyeballs as humanly possible on you, would likely be the best path for both sides.

Melendez, even if he can revert back to his 2022 and 2023 play, can be a useful bench player. He can stand in both outfield spots, first base, be an emergency catcher in a more functional way than nearly every other ball club, and also contribute some power, as he hit 18, 16 and 17 home runs in his three years as a starter. Now, of course, there is work to be done there, but a revamped Mets hitting apparatus could be the key to getting Melendez back on track after a derailing 2025.

The 2023 WBC should not be a looming specter for the Royals

Bobby Witt Jr., wearing the Team USA uniform, fields a ball during the 2023 World Baseball Classic
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 19: Bobby Witt Jr. #15 of Team USA fields a ball in the sixth inning against Team Cuba during the World Baseball Classic Semifinals at loanDepot park on March 19, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images) | Getty Images

When you speak of the World Baseball Classic to Royals fans, their most vivid memories will be how two of their most important players heading into the 2023 season – Bobby Witt Jr. and Brady Singer – were participants on Team USA. Bobby and Brady were going to be vital to whatever success the Royals could have in 2023, but things didn’t go well.

Bobby managed only three plate appearances, but he did take a walk and smacked an RBI double. Brady Singer pitched two innings in a single game and allowed four runs. Considering the time they were away from Royals’ camp, it felt like they weren’t getting nearly enough work, and when the season began, they both got off to incredibly slow starts that helped bury the team in its 7-22 start, which snuffed the dim playoff hopes some fans might have had prior to the beginning of the year.

Over that span, Bobby slashed .253/.297/.453, good for a 100 wRC+, but not at all what Royals fans had hoped for his sophomore season. Singer made six starts, posting an 8.49 ERA. Both players improved significantly as the season went on, but by that point, it didn’t matter for 2023. It wasn’t disastrous because the 2023 Royals were, generally, not a good team, and even if they’d been better, things might not have turned out any happier. But the slow starts of those two players in particular were laid at the feet of their lack of playing time in the WBC.

Those two weren’t the only ones to play in that WBC from the Royals, however.

Vinnie Pasquantino was the starting first baseman for Team Italy. As such, he got 22 plate appearances. Pasquantino has developed a reputation for slow starts, but in 2023, he started out the year .279/.375/.500. He was one of the best hitters in baseball for that first month. Unfortunately, it wasn’t long after that when he reinjured his shoulder and had to have season-ending surgery.

So while some fans worry about Jac Caglianone playing in the 2026 WBC, I’m excited about the opportunity in front of him. With Vinnie still on Team Italy, Caglianone will likely be their starting right fielder. That means he’s going to get competitive-speed action for a handful of games weeks before many of his peers. If that can’t help jump-start his 2026, I don’t know what will.

And don’t worry about Bobby, Salvy, or Maikel Garcia, either. They’re all almost certainly starters on their teams, too.

What about the pitchers?

Seth Lugo will be pitching for Puerto Rico, while Michael Wacha will pitch for Team USA. But there are far fewer reasons to be concerned about them than there ever were about Brady Singer. First of all, they’re veteran pitchers who have had long careers and a lot of success. They know how to take care of business, and a couple of extra weeks of pitching in the WBC isn’t going to cause them to delay their preparation for the season as it appeared to with Brady Singer, who was entering his fourth season.

But the next reason is perhaps just as important. Brian Sweeney and his staff appear to be infinitely better at preparing their pitchers for success than Cal Eldred and his staff were in 2022. It is easy to forget now, but the Royals’ coaching staff was the butt of many MLB jokes in 2022. Sure, Brian Sweeney was technically the pitching coach for Kansas City by the time the WBC came around in 2022, but Singer likely spent much of that offseason operating under instructions from Eldred or another coach who ultimately wasn’t retained to lead the staff. Lugo and Wacha have had the ability to know who their pitching coach is all offseason and have an exceptionally solid plan in place for how to handle their WBC duties in addition to getting ready for the season.

Regardless, the WBC is important

Honestly, even as a Royals fan, I’d support all of these guys going to participate in the WBC, even if I had real concerns about how they’d perform once they got back. Life is, at its core, a series of experiences. And if you get a chance to experience something like the WBC, you have to do it – even if, as a professional baseball player, you already get to experience things most of us only dream about. We only get one life, and it would be cruel to ask them to throw away a chance like this just because it might make it infinitesimally less likely that we’ll get to watch our team hoist a World Series trophy at the end of the year.

That’s more true than ever this year, as the 2023 WBC was such a classic that this iteration has generated more buzz than any I can remember. With all the nonsense about player insurance and teams telling their players they aren’t allowed to participate for one reason or another, there’s no telling how much longer this event could continue to go on. They’ve got to take advantage of it while they can.

And, to be clear, the WBC should go on. It might be awful to lose a key player to injury before the season even begins because he was participating in the tournament, but if baseball is going to continue to thrive as we push into the second quarter of the 21st century, it’s going to need to gain global appeal. It has a head start over a league like the NFL because baseball is already incredibly popular in many Latin American and Asian countries, but that’s all the more reason to not let that advantage lapse while the NFL continues to expand its own global footprint. MLB needs the WBC almost as badly as the WBC needs it, and I’m excited so many Royals will be participating this time.

Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong rips Dodgers fans: 'Nasty stuff goes on'

Perhaps he's simply trying to further ingratiate himself to Chicago Cubs fans, or draw the attention of boo birds when he heads back home.

But Pete Crow-Armstrong – an L.A. dude to his core, the son of actors and the product of one of SoCal's preeminent baseball factories – went well out of his way to bash Los Angeles Dodgers fans this week.

Crow-Armstrong, an All-Star center fielder at 23 last season, initially defiled fans of the two-time defending World Series champions in the proverbial "wide-ranging interview" with Chicago magazine, saying that Cubs fans "give a (expletive). They aren't just baseball fans who go to the game like Dodgers fans to take pictures and whatever. They're paying attention. They care."

Given a window to blunt the edges of those remarks Wednesday, Feb. 25, Crow-Armstrong instead doubled down in an appearance on Foul Territory, apparently referencing the tragic beating of San Francisco Giants fan Bryan Stow and mildly castigating the vibes of a place that drew an MLB-high 4 million fans last season, though perhaps too many that aren't PCA's type.

"I grew up going to Dodgers games when they weren’t always good," he told the popular vodcast. "When they had Mannywood pop up. But it’s like they go in phases. I remember … putting the Giants fan in the coma. That stuck with me as a kid. Just little things. Sitting in the stands, just nasty stuff goes on. I didn’t always experience that at other ballparks."

The Mannywood-Stow era of 2008-2010 would certainly dovetail with Crow-Armstrong's boyish fandom era - he was roughly 6 to 9 years old then. Though perhaps the "go in phases" bit was lost on him – the Dodgers franchise was shortly thereafter plundered by former owner Frank McCourt, who was forced to sell the team by Major League Baseball amid a messy divorce.

Yeah, the fans didn't like that. And perhaps the finer points of sports business were lost on a young PCA, as the Dodgers returned to the limelight only after a sale to Guggenheim investments; the team essentially hasn't missed the playoffs since while re-setting the game's upper salary structure.

A structure Crow-Armstrong will eventually benefit from once he, too, is a free agent. So perhaps the bad memories of traffic jams on the way from Harvard-Westlake School – where tuition now retails for $55,000 – to Chavez Ravine stuck with him. (Was it the 134, the 101 or Sunset that was the culprit?) Maybe the music's too loud.

Or perhaps he wants to generate a faux rivalry between the Cubs and Dodgers. Either way, the Dodger lifestyle PCA seems to deride might look a little better come 2030 – when he's eligible for free agency.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong rips Los Angeles Dodgers fans

Giancarlo Stanton says he can’t open a bag of chips due to elbow pain

There is no doubt that New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton will be depended on if the Bronx Bombers want to win their first World Series since 2019.

Stanton has been plagued by injuries in recent years, and his elbow issues limited him to just 77 games last season.

The now 36-year-old Stanton still hit .273 with 24 home runs and 66 RBI when he did play but, even after an offseason of rest, was asked during spring training this week if his elbows would heal.

“That’ll never be the case,” Stanton said (via NJ.com). “Not while I’m in this line of work. “You have your good days and bad days, just like your mood and everything.”

The five-time All-Star then made a stunning admission on how useful his elbows are.

“I can’t open a bottle,” he said. “I can’t open a bag of chips … a bag of anything. That’s the way it is.”

Stanton said he wants to play a full season, though he hasn't played 140 games or more in a campaign since 2021. He will mostly be a designated hitter in 2026, but plans to get some outfield reps as his health allows.

“That’s not going to be fixed in surgery, and I don’t care what any doctor says because they don’t know what’s going on,” Stanton said. “What’s written (about my elbows) is what me and the Yankees give you.”

Stanton is the active MLB home run leader, with 453. He has two more seasons on a 13-year, $325 million contract he signed as a member of the Miami Marlins in 2014, before a 2028 club option — which contains a $10 million buyout — has to be decided.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton describes limitations due to elbow

In The Lab: Astros Third Base Offense

We continue our trip throughout the diamond with a stop at the hot corner. Officially, the Astros are likely to have three players on the final 26 man roster that can play third base. However, we profiled Isaac Paredes at first base since he is likely to get more time there and Nick Allen will be profiled at shortstop. That leaves Carlos Correa as the primary third baseman, but we will also profile Shay Whitcomb since he is likely to be one of the first guys up in case of injury.

In this series, we are looking at some internal numbers that experts typically look at when they are trying to predict what a hitter might do. Obviously, teams have their own internal numbers and we will likely never have a chance to see those, but Fangraphs.com provides terrific information on each player that can keep us sustained for days or even weeks.

I have selected five such metrics to look at in order to predict what likely might happen in each players’ case. In particular, each number has its league norms as I will profile below, but I like to use three year intervals because it demonstrates a trend in each metric. Those trends are often more important than the league average itself. In Shay Whitcomb’s case we will be looking at his minor league numbers since he has not had enough big league exposure.

  • Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
  • Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
  • BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
  • Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.
  • HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Carlos Correa

ChaseHardhitBABIPContactHR/FB
202326.745.9.27277.313.7
202424.044.5.34381.414.7
202526.945.9.32879.910.6
Aggregate25.945.4.31479.513.0

At this point in Correa’s career it is fair to expect to start seeing some rot. What we can see is that most of the numbers have remained constant except for the pure power numbers. It is fair to ask whether that is a predictor of things to come or whether that was a blip on the radar. Correa has always seemed like a guy that should hit more home runs than he does and when you look at the hard hit rate that partially explains it. He hits the ball hard routinely. He is not in the very top in the league in that category, but he is easily in the top 20 percent.

When you hit the ball hard you will typically have a good BABIP. This is particularly true if you are hitting more ground balls and line drives than flyballs. Correa is what happens when a player is decidedly above average at every single skill. That has a way of compounding and making a player sneakily good. Believe it or not, seeing a player that does each of the four skills (recognize strikes, hit the ball hard, make consistent contact, and hit for power) at an above average rate. Most players have a hole somewhere.

If we are hoping for growth from Correa then it would come in the power department. It will be interesting to see what happens now that he is in Daikan Park for a full season. Minnesota is not the easiest park in the league for home runs and obviously that short porch in left field might give Correa a boost. He’s not likely to go nuts, but maybe 15 to 20 home runs is in the offing.

Shay Whitcomb

ChaseHardhitBABIPContactHR/FB
202339.041.9.28770.123.6
202429.242.5.32074.521.2
202526.942.7.31672.823.1
Aggregate31.742.4.30872.522.6

At some point, we will need to get Jimmy Price on the line for some of these guys, because I will be fascinated to hear the opinion of someone more connected to the scouting world. Whitcomb is another Astros farmhand that seems to be missing the contact tool. The chase rate in 2023 only includes his AAA at bats because Fangraphs does not track AA and below. So, it is likely that his actual rate was below that.

A reader asked a question about ballpark effects and he was talking mainly about minor league parks. That is the missing piece here. We see some pretty stark home run rates there at the end and that probably is not sustainable at the big league level. He might live between 10 and 15 percent even if he adjusts to big league pitching. That makes Whitcomb suddenly look a lot more normal.

All that being said, no one considers Whitcomb to be a huge prospect, so he is just a good guy for organizational depth. One could imagine the profile above actually working in a lesser MLB city where the stakes aren’t so high like the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, or Angels. Maybe one of those teams have a middling bullpen arm or lottery ticket further away from the big leagues. He could also be a throw in come July. What do you expect from the Correa and Whitcomb this season?

Good Morning San Diego: Michael King looks sharp in first start, Padres beat Angels, 7-3

PEORIA, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 25: Michael King #34 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a spring training game against the Los Angeles Angels at Peoria Stadium on February 25, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Michael King - Getty Images

San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King was dominant through the first two innings of his Spring Training debut. He made a mistake to start the top of the third inning, allowing a leadoff home run to Christian Moore, but he struck out two of the next three batters and finished 2.2 innings with one run allowed on two hits with four strikeouts. King is hoping the solid debut is a sign of good things to come, adding that he hopes to get back to the pitcher he was during the 2024 season. The Padres offense took some time to get going but after taking the lead with four runs in the bottom of the sixth inning, San Diego never looked back en route to a 7-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels.

Padres News:

  • Walker Buehler signed a minor league deal with the Padres and seeing him in brown and gold still seems strange, but he is a big-league pitcher with postseason and World Series experience who could be a benefit to the rotation. Gaslamp Ball asked its readers if they would be rooting for Buehler to make the team. Results of the poll will be revealed later in the week.
  • According to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Sung-Mun Song appears to be completely healed from an oblique injury he sustained earlier in the offseason. With that being the case, he has to get to work quickly to adjust to pitching velocity in MLB. Manager Craig Stammen and hitting coach Steven Souza Jr. have a plan to get him where he needs to be and they believe he will get there. In the same article Acee mentions the Padres are receiving calls on their relievers. They have an abundance of bullpen arms and limited roster space, which could mean a trade occurs sometime before the end of Spring Training.
  • Ethan Salas missed all but 10 games of the 2025 season due to a stress reaction in his lower back. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune learned that although Salas could not learn through reps on the field last season, he learned by talking with a host of former catchers in the Padres system.

Baseball News:

  • Harrison Bader of the San Francisco Giants hit a home run that left a dent in a food truck. He did the only thing a player can do in that situation – he signed it.

Washington Nationals show defensive flaws in sloppy performance against the Yankees

TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 25: Ben Rice #22 of the New York Yankees forces out Joey Wiemer #21 of the Washington Nationals at first base in the fifth inning during a Grapefruit League spring training game at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 25, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It had been a positive start to the spring for the Washington Nationals, but they got a reality check last night. They suffered their first defeat of the spring, losing 7-0 to the Yankees in a sloppy contest. The Nats were credited with three errors, but that is being generous. It really could have been five or six.

Last season, the Nats were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Even while the Nats were winning games early this spring, the defense looked suspect. Last night it ended up costing them. Blake Butera has already made defense an emphasis this spring, but clearly it needs to be an even bigger focus.

One thing Butera is going to really need to focus on is pitchers defense. It has been a consistent problem throughout camp, and it was on display again last night. Clayton Beeter and Andrew Alvarez both made throwing errors last night. In our piece yesterday, we mentioned pitcher defense as an area that had to improve. 

Yesterday the offense was very stagnant as well. The Nats only had one hit. However, offense is a secondary concern to me right now. It is still early in camp right now and guys are still finding their swings. As long as some of the big names on the team show life by the end of spring, it is not a big deal.

The Nats also faced some world class pitching last night. New Yankee Ryan Weathers looked absolutely electric in his spring debut with the team. He was pitching with a point to prove, showing a fastball that reached 100 MPH. Weathers’ stuff looked better than ever and he was hitting all of his spots. The Nats also saw some of the Yankees’ better relief pitchers such as David Bednar and Fernando Cruz.

I care much more about the fielding problems than any offensive concerns. Fundamentals should be the focus of Spring Training, and those have been lacking so far for the Nats. It is still February, but the Nats have a long way to go on the defensive side of the ball.

Keibert Ruiz also had a rough night behind the plate. He was not credited with any errors, but his blocking did not look good and he misplayed a ball hit to him. In an open competition, that is not a great look for Ruiz, who has struggled defensively for years. The Nats traded for Harry Ford this offseason, and he should have a chance to win the job out of camp.

Another player who has really struggled to start camp is Dylan Crews. Last night, he struck out twice and made an ugly error where he just dropped the ball. Crews has not lived up to his pre-draft hype so far, making 2026 a massive year for him. He has not been making the kind of statement you would like to see so far this spring.

There is still a long way to go, but I do not think Crews has done enough to be above starting the season at AAA. If Crews continues to struggle and one of the Nats many outfielders outperforms him badly, there should be a conversation. Crews never truly mastered the AAA level, so maybe going down there would not be the worst thing.

Of course, it would take Crews really struggling and someone else really stepping up for that to happen. However, I do believe that is a conversation worth having. Paul Toboni should be able to start with a clean slate. He was not the guy who drafted these players, so he should not feel any loyalty to them. The best man should win. There is still almost a month of Spring Training left, so Crews has plenty of time to redeem himself. 

It is still very early in the spring, and the Nats are 4-1 so far. There were some concerning things on display last night, but I do not want this to be all doom and gloom. We should expect some ugly performances from time to time. This is a young team that is not built to win this year. 

The Nats getting shelled or shut out every once in a while is not a big deal to me. However, I want them to control the things they can control. That means cleaning up the defensive mistakes and playing smart baseball. You do not need to be the most talented team in the league to play clean baseball. Hopefully we see defensive improvement as we approach the regular season.

Best of the Rest: Which unranked Guardians position player prospects should we keep an eye on in 2026?

Sep 24, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Petey Halpin (0) scores in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

With seven teams in its minor league system, Cleveland has 165 players under contract heading into the 2026 season, so it’s a bit unfair to stop counting prospects at just the top 20.

Every year I pick some other non-top 20 prospects to keep an eye on and the track record has been pretty solid thus far. In last year’s article, I picked four players who made it to this year’s top 20 prospects and two more made it to the show (George Valera and Petey Halpin).

Here are some prospects who just missed the cut from Covering the Corner’s top 20 and deserve some recognition as well. Prospects are listed by their proximity to MLB.

Catchers

Jacob Cozart, 23, C

Drafted in the second round out of NC State in the 2024 MLB Draft, scouts said Jacob Cozart was strong defensively. After struggling in a small sample size the year he was drafted, Cozart blossomed in 2025. putting up above average wRC+ numbers at both High-A and then at Double-A. To top that off, I’ve seen multiple scouting reports that are claiming he’s not only the best defensive catcher in Cleveland’s system, but Cozart is one of the best defensive catchers in minor league baseball. He threw out 37 attempted base thieves last year in 84 games played at catcher.

Bennett Thompson, 23, C

Thompson also was drafted in 2024 — in the 13th round as a more offense-first catcher. The offense impressed in 2025 as he posted a 118 wRC+ at Single-A Lynchburg, even stealing eight bases while slashing .269/.372/.352 and earning a cup of coffee at High-A Lake County to close out the season. He also threw out 32 baserunners, which wasn’t half bad.

Infielders

Christian Knapczyk, 24, 2B/SS

Cleveland’s fifth round pick in 2023, Knapczyk is a high-contact speedster. He improved his power numbers in 2025, blasting seven home runs at High-A, where he played good enough to earn a late season promotion to Double-A. Knapczyk hasn’t been super flashy, but he’s been above average at all three levels he’s played thus far, including posting a 102 wRC+ in his 25-game stint at Akron last year, where he walked an impressive 14.4% of the time while dropping his strikeout rate.

Juan Benjamin, 22, 2B/3B

A 2019 international signing out of the Dominican Republic, Benjamin has been a slow mover in Cleveland’s system, stalling at Single-A for two and a half seasons. Despite a sub-par 2024, his first season of his career that was below 100 wRC+, Cleveland promoted him to High-A Lake County for 2025 and it paid off. Benjamin flourished there, slashing .276/.365/.385 in 88 games with 18 stolen bases, good for a 116 wRC+ and lining him up to debut at Double-A this year.

Dean Curley, 21, SS

Cleveland’s second round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, Dean Curley played just nine games with Lynchburg in the Carolina League last year, but he also played a part in the Hillcats’ run to a Carolina League championship in the playoffs. Before that, Curley slashed .315/.435/.531 with Tennessee while bashing 14 home runs. Curley likely will be the opening day shortstop for Lake County this year.

Luke Hill, 21, 3B

llege Cleveland’s fourth round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hill got off to an extremely hot start after getting placed at Single-A Lynchburg, slashing an elite /.357/.459/.510 over 15 games. Hill has an excellent eye at the plate, walking more than he struck out in his final two college seasons and he kept that skill at Lynchburg, walking 17.7% of the time. He’ll likely begin 2026 at High-A Lake County.

Riley Nelson, 22, 1B

Cleveland’s fifth round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, Nelson had a spectacular final season with Vanderbilt, slashing .344/.450/.526 and he carried that over to a 15-game run with Single-A Lynchburg, slashing .316/.381/.474, good for a 149 wRC+. Nelson also is expected to begin at High-A Lake County.

Dauri Fernandez, 18, 2B/3B/SS

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2024, Fernandez hit the ground running with the Dominican Summer League at age 17 with a 112 wRC+. He blossomed in his stateside debut, slashing .333/.398/.558 over 43 games with an impressive six home runs, nine doubles and four triples, exploding his ISO to .224. He earned a seven-game cup of coffee at full-season Lynchburg. He was Cleveland’s most impressive hitter at the complex league. Keep an eye on this one.

Gabriel Rodriguez, 18, SS

Signed internationally in 2024, Rodriguez appears to have the chops to stick at shortstop and has shown an incredible ability to get on base. After posting a ridiculous .506 on base percentage in his debut season in the DSL, Rodriguez had his best hitting performance in the Arizona Complex League last year, hitting .294 while maintaining an elite .393 OBP. Unlike many of Cleveland’s undersized international prospects, Rodriguez stands 6-foot-1 and has room to grow.

Rodny Rosario, 18, SS

Signed out of Venezuela for $230,000 in 2025, Rosario had the best offensive season of any Guardians prospect between both of the organization’s Dominican Summer League teams, slashing .307/.452/.464 with an impressive six triples and a pair of home runs in his age-17 season. The switch hitter walked as much as he struck out and should move to Arizona this year.

Outfielders

Petey Halpin, 23, CF

A third round pick by Cleveland in 2020, Halpin has been slightly above average almost every season in the Guardians’ system. He hit a career-high 14 home runs in his Triple-A debut in 2025 and earned an opportunity at the MLB level in September, where he showcased above average defense, baserunning and an excellent ability to get on base in a small sample size.

Wuilfredo Antunez, 23, RF

A 2019 international signing out of Venezuela, Antunez has done nothing but hit at every level he’s ever played at, never posting a wRC+ below 120. He slashed .275/.354/.420 spending the entire 2023 season at Single-A Lynchburg and Cleveland repeated him there in 2024, where he again played well, putting up a 127 wRC+. Antunez saw a power spike in 2025, blasting a career-high 18 home runs split between High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron, posting a wRC+ of 135 and 147 at each.

Tommy Hawke, 22, LF

Hawke was Cleveland’s sixth round pick in 2023 and spent his entire 2024 campaign at Single-A Lynchburg. He posted an elite walk-rate of 15.1% while swiping 37 bases over 88 games, slashing .263/.379/.347 with a 121 wRC+. Hawke is a contact-focused hitter, hitting just one home run last year. He’ll likely start 2025 at High-A.

Nick Mitchell, 22, CF

Acquired by Cleveland in the Andres Gimenez trade, Mitchell was above average repeating at Single-A Lynchburg, but impressed significantly after he was promoted to High-A Lake County, where he slashed .267/.380/.422, good for a 128 wRC+. While he only hit two home runs, Mitchell stole 30 bases and walked more than he struck out on the season.

Ryan Cesarini, 23, OF

Cesarini was selected in the 14th round of the 2024 MLB Draft and he was above average at Single-A Lynchburg last year with 33 stolen bases. He earned a late season promotion to High-A and played even better while there, slashing .292/.373/.469, good for an elite 138 wRC+. On the season, he stole 40 bases and smacked five home runs while almost walking more than he struck out.

Esteban Gonzalez, 22, OF

Gonzalez was a 2019 international signing out of Venezuela and he’s performed at almost every level, only requiring a repeat stint at the complex league in 2023, where he flourished. He was a staple of Lake County’s lineup in 2025, playing 110 games where he slashed .272/.336/.430 while stealing 24 bases and shellacking nine home runs.

Aaron Walton, 21, OF

Selected as a competitive balance pick in the second round of the 2025 MLB Draft, Walton made a 16-game stint at Single-A Lynchburg, where he slashed .238/.324/.397 with a home run, five doubles and a triple while helping the Hillcats win the Carolina League championship. Before that, Walton was a standout junior prospect out of Arizona, where he showcased an impressive all-round game while putting up strong numbers with a .320/.437/.589 slash, 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases. He was hit by a whopping 24 pitches that season as well. He’ll likely begin the 2026 campaign at High-A.

Nolan Schubart, 21, OF

Cleveland’s third round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, Schubart presents a stark change from the typical Guardians model, as he is the most strikeout-prone college hitter the team has drafted in recent memory. He’s also one of the most powerful sluggers, bashing a combined 59 home runs in his three seasons at Oklahoma State. He had an elite 1.351 OPS his sophomore season, but a 24.59% strikeout rate in college scared scouts. He whiffed 36% of the time in a 15-game stint at Lynchburg as well.

Robert Arias, 18, OF

Cleveland’s top international signing in 2024 out of the Dominican Republic, Arias showed great plate discipline in his Dominican Summer League debut, walking almost twice as much as he struck out. This past season, he again walked more than striking out, leading the team with 29 stolen bases in 46 games and slashed a solid .287/.389/.402. I expect him to make his full-season debut at Single-A this year to begin the 2026 campaign.


Did I miss any of Cleveland’s minor league players that you felt deserved a shoutout? Feel free to comment or share your opinion on the “best of the rest” below.

Yankees Birthday of the Day: Johnny Blanchard

(Original Caption) Ft. Lauderdale, Florida: John Blanchard of the Yankees during spring training.

The next player in our Birthday Series, covering every type of New York Yankee we possibly can, is one I hold in special regard. Several years ago, we did a series covering the best complementary players in Yankees history, and he was one of the nominees: former outfielder and catcher Johnny Blanchard.

John Edwin Blanchard
Born: February 26, 1933 (Minneapolis, MN)
Died: March 25, 2009 (Robbinsdale, MN)
Yankees Tenure: 1955-65

While everyone is always looking for that secret formula, the truth is there are many reasons behind a dynasty, and that has always been the case — the Yankees would know more than any other in baseball history. Among the many important points, organizational depth is key, one properly illustrated by the likes of Johnny Blanchard — a player who was never a feature piece of a Yankee team in any given season, but did his part and then some in a couple of World Series-winning teams.

A native of the small town of Robbinsdale in Minneapolis, Blanchard was a standout athlete growing up, earning the attention of scouts in multiple sports. The Minneapolis Lakers tried to keep him in-state as a basketball player, but Blanchard took the rather tempting offer from the Yankees for $20k to sign out of high school. A product of Central High School, Blanchard was one of the two more notable major leaguers to come out of the school that closed its doors in 1982.

Signed as an outfielder, Blanchard was developing in the minors when he paused his career for a two-year period to serve in the US Army in the Korean War in 1953 and 1954. Struggling heavily in his first taste of pro ball, Blanchard had found himself in 1952 with an outstanding campaign, securing a .996 OPS for the Toplin Miners before his time with the Army.

Returning to the Yankees in 1955, Blanchard managed to get a cup of tea with the big league club, one that proved misleading concerning his proximity to the majors. From 1955 to 1958, Blanchard split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, struggling to gain space in the big league club and also working through a particularly difficult transition from the outfield to catching — one made even harder for a player whose natural talents didn’t particularly stand out that much, at least according to Blanchard himself.

Little could Blanchard have guessed that the transition to the catching position would earn him a better shot at playing time from 1960 onwards — the Yankee outfield became more crowded with the addition of Roger Maris via trade with the Royals, one that sparked the beginning of a particularly successful era of Yankee baseball.

Following two underwhelming seasons as a backup catcher in 1959 and 1960, Blanchard delivered one of the more memorable backup campaigns in the history of Yankee baseball — the backup catcher taking full advantage of that powerful left-handed swing to hit a whopping 21 homers in just 275 at-bats, and four of them even came in a row. Despite coming off the bench, one could argue that Blanchard was one of the more impactful players of that championship-winning team outside of the Mickey Mantle-Roger Maris duo.

Helping a Yankee team that beat the Reds four games to one in the World Series, Blanchard made his first of several productive Fall Classic appearances. Blanchard went 4-for-10 with a pair of home runs, the only Yankee hitter to go deep multiple times in the World Series. The first of those homers was a crucial one in the path of the whole series — after splitting the first two games at home, the Yankees trailed 2-1 in Cincinnati in Game 3, and Blanchard hit a game-tying shot, quickly followed by Roger Maris also going yard in a 3-2 Yankee victory.

From then on, the Yankees cruised through a couple of blowout wins to win the series in five.

Although he was never quite able to repeat those regular-season numbers of 1961, Blanchard went on to put up three solid campaigns off the bench for the Yankees. New York made the World Series every year between 1961 and 1964 but only won a couple, and Blanchard never featured as much as he did in that first one against Cincinnati. However, to hold Blanchard to the standard of that outrageous 1961 campaign is a tad harsh to say the least. Between 1962 and 1964, Blanchard had a 107 OPS+ in over 700 plate appearances, an outstanding effort for a reserve catcher, one that any team would gladly take. With Yogi Berra manning the position, there wasn’t room in the Yankees roster for a larger role — it’s hard not to wonder what Blanchard might have done at his best if given the opportunity to start full-time.

A player coming from Minnesota, Blanchard learned to love being a Yankee more than the usual relationship between player and organization. One of his most memorable stories as a Yankee is that of his reaction following a trade in 1965, crying copiously at the thought of no longer wearing pinstripes. After playing for the Kansas City Athletics and Milwaukee Braves in 1965, Blanchard retired as a 32-year-old, clearly struggling more than you’d expect for a player of his age. That was by far Blanchard’s worst season, finishing it with a .532 OPS.

Many players’ love of the game leads to them occupying other roles upon retiring, but other than a failed comeback attempt a few years into his retirement, Blanchard didn’t. The retired ballplayer went on to work as a salesman in several different areas and was also involved in real estate.

Blanchard died of a heart attack on March 25, 2009, in his hometown of Robbinsdale, Minnesota. He’ll always live on in lore of the Yankees’ dynasty years.


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Who will be the best Guardians’ starting pitcher in 2026?

Feb 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

I feel like this is an area where some interesting debate could take place.

Is it the frontrunner, Gavin Williams? Or do his walk tendencies disrupt that?

Is it a return to form for Tanner Bibee?

It it a fulfillment of potential for Joey Cantillo?

Is it a continuation of a strong rookie debut for Parker Messick?

Let us know who and why in the comments below!

Mets Morning News: Carson Benge enjoys successful day at the plate

PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - FEBRUARY 19: Carson Benge #93 of the New York Mets poses for a photo during the New York Mets photo day at Clover Park on Thursday, February 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Meet the Mets

The Mets fell to the Cardinals 6-0 and are now 2-2 in Grapefruit League action. Jonah Tong saw his first game action of spring and gave up a three-run home run in 2.2 innings of work. One of the candidates to make the bullpen, Adbert Alzolay, had a successful appearance in his one inning. Carson Benge was the standout on offense on an otherwise lackluster day. Benge went 3-for-3 with all three hits coming with two strikes.

Carson Benge hates striking out, which helps fuel him when he is down in the count.

Jonah Tong is in the process of developing a cutter, which he debuted against the Cardinals.

Brett Baty is happy to play anywhere in the field, hoping his versatility will keep him in the lineup.

Francisco Alvarez got the start at DH and will get behind the plate soon.

Francisco Lindor got the stitches from his surgery removed from his hand, and he is still on track for Opening Day.

Comedian John Oliver’s son was heartbroken when Pete Alonso left for the the Orioles, so now the Polar Bear is trying to convince him to become a Baltimore fan.

Around the National League East

Bryce Elder was solid in his spring start for the Braves.

The Marlins’ bullpen has a few roles up for grabs with a few arms competing for spots.

New Phillie Brad Keller thinks moving to the bullpen helped revitalize his career with the Cubs, and he hopes he can be a key contributer in Philadelphia.

The Nationals have started off spring playing well, but their defense still could use some improvement.

Around Major League Baseball

The Yankees are retiring CC Sabathia’s number with a ceremony in September.

Harrison Bader left an apology note after his home run ball dented a food truck.

During his game Josh Naylor made sure to greet and welcome home-plate umpire Jen Pawol, who became the first woman in history to umpire an MLB regular-season game last season.

Who are the top hitting prospects for each team?

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Brian Salvatore wondered why Ji Hwan Bae is a Met.

This Date in Mets History

Happy birthday, Kevin Plawecki!

Starting Pitcher Draft Values for 2026 Fantasy Baseball: Andrew Painter, Zach Eflin, and more

Finding value is a huge part of fantasy baseball success. While you need to hit on your early-round picks, finding key contributors late in the draft is a surefire way to rocket up your standings. For me, the best place to find value is with starting pitching. I started this article three years ago to identify some starting pitchers who weren’t getting enough love in drafts. In that first season in 2023, I was able to hit on Kyle Bradish, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Bryce Miller, and the next year, we hit on Jared Jones and Reese Olson, andthen last year, we landed on Lucas Giolito and Jack Leiter, who both finished inside the top 65 starters, but missed on Zebby Matthews, Jose Soriano, and Max Meyer.

The premise for this article came from The Process, by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell. In the book, they report that, in 12-team leagues, 45% of undrafted pitchers finish the season in the top 108 starting pitchers. They also found that 20% of undrafted pitchers in 12-team leagues end up inside the top 25 in season-long value and that 50% of undrafted pitchers will have top-25 weekly value at some point in the season. If you can find one of those pitchers who finishes with top 25 value, woo boy.

The goal for today is to try to unearth who those pitchers might be. Even though the top 108 pitchers drafted in these leagues include relievers, we’re going to focus on just starting pitchers who are being drafted outside of the top 108 pitchers because, statistically speaking, it’s far more likely for a starter to catapult into the top 25 than for an undrafted reliever.

For me, there are a few things that I’m looking for when trying to find a starting pitcher who could jump to the top of the heap.

  1. A chance at 130 innings or more
  2. Strikeout Upside (which, to me, means a big swing-and-miss pitch apart from a fastball)
  3. Fastball velocity (to me, this provides a safe floor; it’s hard to succeed around a bad fastball)
  4. An arsenal of three pitches or more (I believe that a pitcher needs a fastball for strikes, a secondary for called strikes, and a secondary for swinging strikes).

    The ADP used is from February 11th to February 26th in NFBC Online Championships, which is 23 drafts.

    ⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

    Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Draft Values

    I just wanted to briefly mention Joey Cantillo, who is being drafted as the 106th pitcher off the board in February drafts, which puts him close to this cut-off but not eligible. I wrote about him in my post-hype pitchers article, and I really like him for this season. I also really like Kodai Senga, who is the 105th pitcher being drafted, and Troy Melton, but I think he's the 7th starting pitcher in Detroit, so he's just a name to keep an eye on if injuries give him a shot in the rotation.

    Braxton Ashcraft - Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 269, 108th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: Right off the bat, we have a small knock against Ashcraft. He has never thrown more than 118 innings in a professional season, in part because he had Tommy John surgery in 2021, but also because he had meniscus surgery in 2020 and injured his non-throwing shoulder in 2019. However, that 118-inning season was just last year, which means that 130 innings is well within his reach this season, and I'm not overly concerned with his innings.

    Strikeout Upside: Ashcraft had a 24% strikeout rate last year, with a 16.1% K-BB% and a 13.2% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%). That's pretty solid. His slider is a strong swing-and-miss pitch to righties with a 21% SwStr% and a 25% PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch ends in a strikeout. He uses that slider 35% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, and because it acts more like a cutter, he can dot it in the zone or throw it off the plate. It gives him plenty of strikeout upside to righties. To lefties, he can also go to his slider. It is his most used two-strike pitch to lefties and has a 21% PutAway Rate, which is above-average. However, he also has a curve that is a hard-diving 84 mph offering that he can command in the zone or bury underneath it. That pitch also has a 24% PutAway rate versus lefties, which gives him multiple avenues to attack them.

    Fastball Success: This is another slight issue for Ashcraft. His four-seam fastball is below-average. It sits at 97 mph, but Ashcraft has below-average extension on it, just average vertical movement, and it's relatively flat, but he keeps it low in the zone more than you'd like. He can throw it for strikes, but it gets hit hard by both righties and lefties. Righties do far more damage on the four-seamer, which is relevant because Ashcraft added in a sinker that he uses just as often to righties as his four-seamer. That sinker not only limits hard contact but also induces a surprising number of whiffs to righties. I'd really love to see this become his primary fastball to righties because he needs to limit the use of that four-seamer.

    Deep Pitch Mix: Ashcraft has five pitches, but really only four because he didn't throw his changeup enough in 2025. He has three pitches he can throw to lefties (four-seam, curve, and slider), and he uses all four of his main pitches to righties. Considering his four-seam fastball is a below-average pitch, I do worry a little bit about his approach to lefties. If we consider his slider to be a cutter, then he at least has one fastball variation to lefties. However, a changeup or another pitch that he can throw away would be beneficial and could add more strikeout upside.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 2/10.I think Ashcraft will be solid, but I don't have tons of confidence that he has the strikeout upside to vault into the top 25 since he is also on a team that may not get him double-digit wins.

    Sean Manaea - New York Mets (ADP: 279, 113th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: We’ve seen Sean Manaea do this before, so there should be no doubt about his ability to put up volume. The only reason he didn’t last year was because of an injury that delayed his start to the season, and then the Mets decided to bring him back as more of a piggyback starter after they had already called up their young starting pitching prospects. The left-hander pitched 181.1 innings in 2024 and finished as the 21st-ranked starting pitcher, according to FanGraph's Player Rater, so we know he has it in him.

    Strikeout Upside: Even in a poor season last year, Manaea posted a 28.5% strikeout rate and 14.1% SwStr%, so he showed the ability to miss bats. A big part of that is a four-seam fastball that posted a 15.2% SwStr% to righties. I expect Manaea to go back to the sinker more in 2026, which means that he can use the four-seamer as a swing-and-miss pitch late in the count more often. He also has a sweeper that carves up lefties, and a changeup that had a league average SwStr% to righties in 2024 and had a strong PutAway Rate in a small sample in 2025. This isn't the profile of a major strikeout arm, but getting back to about one strikeout per inning makes sense to me.

    Fastball Success:  We covered above that his fastballs are solid pitches. The four-seamer misses plenty of bats against righties, but it also gets hit harder because he struggles to get it inside on their hands. The sinker was a better strike fastball for him in 2024, which helped him to get ahead in the count. In 2024, he also did a great job of getting his four-seamer up to left-handed hitters, which paired well with the sinker that he could run in on their hands. When they work as a pair, it gives Manaea a solid fastball foundation.

    Deep Pitch Mix: If we go back to 2024, because Manaea was hurt for most of last season, the left-hander used four pitches to righties in his sinker, sweeper, four-seam, and changeup. He also mixed in a cutter 8% of the time and a harder slider 6% of the time. He was predominantly just a sinker and sweeper to lefties, but he did use his four-seamer 11% of the time, while mixing in his other offerings around 5%. I'd expect him to get back to that deep mix, which has always been crucial to his success.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. We've seen him do it before, and the Mets have so many unproven or erratic starters that they are going to count on Manaea for length to help save their bullpen.

    ⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns toNBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

    Zebby Matthews - Minnesota Twins (ADP: 294, 115th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: Zebby threw 116 innings last year while battling through some injuries and threw 134.2 innings in 2024, so he should have no problem pushing close to 150. I already thought he was a better fit in the rotation than Taj Bradley or Simeon Woods-Richardson, and then Pablo Lopez got hurt, which opened up another spot. I think Zebby is all but assured a spot in Minnesota's rotation to start the season.

    Strikeout Upside: Zebby’s slider is a plus pitch. It had a 22% SwStr% last year, and it’s effective to both righties and lefties because it’s a hard, gyro slider. He throws it often in two-strike counts to all hitters, and it has plus PutAway Rates to both, with an elite 28% rate to lefties. Having a platoon neutral secondary like that is an awesome foundation. He also has a cutter, which gets swings and misses against lefties, but he uses it low in the zone 51% of the time, and it gets hit hard, so it's not a true asset yet. I’d like to see him jam lefties inside with it more and at least use it up and down the zone because I know he likes to use it to set up the slider against lefties because it can be hard to tell the difference. His changeup is just average, but it doesn’t get hit hard, and his curveball actually grades out as a decent pitch, but one that he struggles to command as well as we’d like. So, really, he posted a solid 14% SwStr% in 2025, but his swings and misses are reliant on the slider and the four-seam fastball unless another pitch improves.

    Fastball Success: In his final start of last season, Zebby was sitting just under 96 mph with his four-seam fastball. That’s one mph up from 2024. It’s a flat fastball with mediocre extension that he commands well in the zone, which leads to above-average swinging strike rates against both righties and lefties. I understand that it’s not an elite fastball, and it did get hit hard last year, but he has proven that he can miss bats with it, especially if he starts to use the cutter and sinker more often to keep hitters from sitting on the four-seamer. I do love that he has three fastball variations.

    Deep Pitch Mix: Having three fastball variations and an elite secondary is a good foundation for success. He's four-seam, slider, cutter to righties, with the sinker mixed in 9% of the time, and his curve and change both around 6%. That's basically a four-pitch mix. Against lefties, he uses the four-seam almost 40% of the time, and the slider 21% of the time, plus his change and cutter 15% of the time, for a more true four-pitch mix. But that's more than enough pitches to keep hitters of each handedness guessing.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 4/10. I see the pieces there, and Zebby's underlying metrics suggest he was better than his results last year. Some improvement in cutter location or some tweak to the changeup or curve could unlock another level for him.

    Parker Messick - Cleveland Guardians (ADP: 295, 117th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: Messick is another pitcher whose draft price is impacted by the fact that he's not projected to start the season in the rotation. That final spot is, according to FanGraphs, projected to go to Logan Allen, but here's the thing: I think Messick is just better. The 25-year-old pitched to a 2.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 38/6 K/BB ratio in 39.2 big league innings last year. He threw 138.1 innings overall last season and 133.2 innings in 2024. I don't think there would be any limit on his innings if he wins a spot in this rotation.

    Strikeout Upside: Messick had a 19.4% K-BB% and 12% SwStr% in his seven starts last year, but I believe there is enough strikeout upside here because, wait for it, he's a lefty with a really good changeup. It had a 16.1% SwStr% against righties, and he got league-average called strike rates on it and also used it 44% of the time in two-strike counts while registering an 18.3% PutAway Rate, which was above league average. His four-seamer also had above-average swinging strike rates to righties, and even though he only used it 26% of the time in two-strike counts, it had an absurd 26% PutAway Rate, which suggests that it plays well up in the zone as a complementary two-strike weapon. Against lefties, his four-seamer performed even better, with a 33% PutAway Rate, but he primarily used a slider, which didn't get many two-strike swings and misses. However, his curve had a 27% SwStr% against lefties overall and a 33.3% PutAway rate, so perhaps that's a pitch he can rely on more often against lefties in 2026.

    Fastball Success: Messick's four-seam fastball grades out well despite being just 93 mph. He has league-average extension on the pitch but solid vertical movement and a flat attack angle. He gets it up in the zone well against lefties and has a whippy delivery while hiding the ball behind his back, which makes it tough for hitters to pick up. He also does a good job pounding the zone with the fastball, so it's not only a good foundation pitch to get ahead in the counts, but he can miss bats with it when he needs to go to it for strikeouts too.

    Deep Pitch Mix: Messick is basically a five-pitch pitcher to right-handed hitters, using his four-seam, changeup, and curveball primarily, but he also uses his slider 9.5% of the time and his sinker 9% of the time. Against lefties, he's really only a three-pitch pitcher, using his four-seam, slider, and sinker; although, I think there is a path forward to slightly increasing his curveball usage and being a true four-pitch arm to lefties, which would give him a truly deep arsenal.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 4/10. Messick has most of what we look for in a late-round breakout pick. He has a deep arsenal and a track record of missing bats in the minors. His starting spot might be the biggest question mark in addition to pitching on a team that has no problem going to its bullpen early in a game.

    Andrew Painter - Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 296, 118th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: Painter threw 106.2 innings last year in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, so 130 innings is well within his reach. He's currently listed as the number five starter in Philadelphia, but I'm not a Taijuan Walker believer, so it wouldn't surprise me if Painter was really more of their fourth starter and remained in the rotation when Zack Wheeler eventually returns.

    Strikeout Upside: Painter has a big fastball that hit triple-digits in the minors last season. J.T. Realmuto had some really nice things to say about how easy the fastball comes out of Painter’s hand, and also compared Painter to Wheeler in terms of the way that he can attack the edges with plus stuff. Ralmuto also noted that "last year, he was just leaving some balls in the middle of the plate or getting behind in some counts" as he struggled with command post-surgery. Again, we should expect command struggles in the first year after surgery, so that doesn't concern us. We care about the fact that he can attack the strike zone with his arsenal that also features a plus slider that he can throw in the zone and for whiffs. He also has a slower sweeper that he can use for whiffs to righties and has been messing around with his changeup to add more drop and get more whiffs to lefties.

    Fastball Success: You'd think, because his four-seam sits around 97 mph, that it's an elite pitch, but it's not really. It has 17 inches of vertical break, which we like to see, but he has below-average extension, and his command of it isn't ideal, and he struggles to get it in on the hands of lefties. I'd love to see him elevate that pitch more often, and perhaps another year removed from Tommy John surgery will allow him to do that. If his fastball can be more "good" than "OK," then he has a real chance to break out with his strong collection of secondaries.

    Deep Pitch Mix: Painter has a legitimate six-pitch mix. In the minors, he attacked righties with a four-seam, slider, and curve, and then mixed in his sweeper and sinker. Against lefties, he went with a four-seam primarily and then threw his curve, slider, and changeup all around 15%. That makes him essentially a four-pitch pitcher to both righties and lefties, and we love that. Does he carry that over against big league hitters?

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. His upside is about as high as anybody on this list. Can he put it all together in his first taste of MLB action?

    ⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns toNBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

    Ian Seymour - Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 311, 127th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: I know people think of Seymour as a reliever because 14 of his 19 appearances with Tampa Bay last year came out of the pen, but he is actually a starting pitching prospect that they brought up to pitch out of the bullpen because their rotation was full. He threw 145.1 innings in 2024 as a full-time starter and threw 143 innings last year, split between the major and minor leagues. There is no innings cap on him this season. Your only argument against him getting innings is that you believe both Joe Boyle and Steven Matz will beat him out for a spot in the rotation, and I just don't.

    Strikeout Upside: Like a few pitchers in this article, Ian Seymour is a SWATCH. He used his changeup 32% of the time last year and threw it to both righties and lefties. To lefties, he keeps it in the zone often, locating it well in the lower third of the zone but not always inside. It still boasts an above-average SwStr% and a plus PutAway Rate, but it’s more of a strike pitch because he also has a sweeper that he uses 43% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties. Against righties, Seymour keeps his changeup in the zone far less often, but it gets a tremendous 20% SwStr% because of all the chases he gets by keeping the pitch low and away. He uses it almost 40% of the time in two-strike counts to righties and has an 84th percentile PutAway Rate on it. It’s a great offering.

    Fastball Success: His four-seam fastball is a good pitch against lefties and a mediocre pitch against righties. However, he keeps it up in the zone well to righties, which is important because that’s also where he throws a cutter that he uses 27% of the time to righties. That fastball pairing is really just about limiting damage and then setting him up to use the changeup. He also has a sinker that he’ll mix in to lefties, so he has a deep enough arsenal to get ahead in counts and then set up his lethal weapon. All of that is enticing.

    Deep Pitch Mix: Seymour will use primarily three pitches to righties (four-seam, changeup, and cutter), but the changeup is so elite that I think that's plenty. Against lefties, he has five pitches that he uses at least 10% of the time: four-seamer (29%), changeup (24%), sweeper (22%), sinker (15%), and cutter (10%). That's more than enough offerings for me.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. I really like Seymour this year. I think we're in for a legit breakout. This would be a 6 or 7 grade if I knew for certain he had a starting spot.

    Reid Detmers - Los Angeles Angels (ADP: 321, 129th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: We’ve seen Detmers do this before, so there is very little doubt he can reach 130 innings. Oftentimes, we make the mistake of extrapolating total innings pitched for a reliever moving into the rotation and assuming that he'll follow up a 66-inning season with something around 110 innings, but that's not how it works. Pitching at max effort multiple times a week is just as taxing, if not more, on your arm than starting once every five days. Detmers has thrown 148.2 innings before and could easily do it again.

    Strikeout Upside: From June 1st on last year, Detmers posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 33% strikeout rate. His slider eats up lefties with a 24% SwStr%. As a reliever, Detmers also went to his curve more often. He threw it 15% of the time to righties as a starter in 2024, but 25% of the time in 2025. The pitch doesn’t really miss bats, but he threw it 76% of the time early in counts, where he was able to pound the strike zone and produced a 93rd-percentile called strike rate. That would help take pressure off of the four-seam fastball and set up his slider, which had a 75th-percentile PutAway Rate against righties. His four-seam fastball also had a 90th-percentile PutAway Rate against righties as Detmers got it up in the zone far more often. So while we should feel confident that Detmers can strike out lefties, his ability to strike out righties will be linked to whether or not his approach carries over and if he can use secondary pitches to set up his four-seamer or slider for whiffs. However, he did throw a changeup to righties 20% of the time in 2024 and registered a near 17% SwStr% on it and an above-average PutAway Rate, so maybe he brings that back in.

    Fastball Success: Detmer's four-seam fastball is fine. It sits around 94 mph with below-average extension but good vertical movement and is flat enough to succeed up in the zone, which is where he attacked way more often in 2025. At least against righties. That's part of the reason his four-seamer had a 19% SwStr% to righties last year, and I think he'll stick with that approach. He relied on his slider far more against lefties, and I think Detmers can be slider/curve focused to lefties and just mix in his four-seam and sinker to keep them honest.

    Deep Pitch Mix: Detmers will rely mostly on his four-seam, slider, and curve to righties, but if he brings that changeup back in, he'd have four offerings that he can use at least 15% of the time to righties. Lefties are likely to see mainly sliders, which I'm OK with, but he'll also use the four-seamer and curve and add in the sinker about 7% of the time. It's not the deepest mix you've seen, but it's plenty deep enough.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 5/10. Detmers was a former top prospect who may have taken a circuitous route to putting it all together, but there's a compelling argument that time in the bullpen may have sharpened his approach enough to get the most out of his stuff.

    Zach Eflin - Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 353, 166th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: Eflin dealt with a lower back injury throughout the 2025 season. It may have begun as he was trying to pitch through a lat strain and was compensating in ways that aggravated his back, but he wound up having to undergo lumbar microdiscectomy surgery, which is a "minimally invasive" procedure that removes a portion of a slipped disc in the lower back that had been pressing on the nerve. Eflin began throwing again in December and is a full participant in spring training, so we shouldn't see much risk for innings.

    Strikeout Upside: For this section, I think we need to look beyond 2025. We know that Eflin was pitching through injuries last year, but he had a 26.5% strikeout rate in 2023, and I think there is enough here to at least push a 21% mark, which would give him about 8 K/9. Last year, his sweeper had a nearly 22% SwStr% to righties, and his curve posted an above-average 14.5% mark to righties. Neither one of those pitches delivered in two-strike counts, but I think that likely has a lot to do with the location not being as precise as Eflin wanted it. Likely due to the back injury. Against lefties, his curve also posted a 17% SwStr%, but again, failed to deliver in two-strike counts. There isn't tons of strikeout upside here, but Eflin does have two pitches that he can miss bats with, so there is a foundation to work from.

    Fastball Success: Eflin is a cutter/sinker guy primarily, but he does use a four-seam fastball 15% of the time against lefties as well, so we're dealing with three fastballs here. He relies mainly on the sinker to righties and the cutter to lefties, and while those pitches don't miss bats, he does a good enough job of locating both in the zone, and they both limit hard contact. The sinker in particular has been a good groundball pitch for him against righties, so I like that combo as a foundation for his arsenal.

    Deep Pitch Mix: This is partially where Eflin shines. He throws six pitches at least 9% of the time to righties, led by his sinker, sweeper, and curve. He also throws five pitches at least 15% of the time to lefties, led by the cutter, changeup, and curve. That's a really deep pitch mix that can help mess with a hitter's timing and keep them off the barrel. It's also part of the season that Eflin posted such strong WHIPs from 2022-2024, and I believe he can do that again.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 4/10. There isn't a lot of strikeout upside here, which makes it hard to see a huge ceiling, but the only people pushing Eflin for innings in Baltimore are Dean Kremer, Cade Povich, and Brandon Young. The path for Eflin is 150-170 innings of solid ratios on a good team that pushes him to 12-14 wins. That is how you get a top 25 season, but I think you're more likely to just get a solid top 50 season, which still makes him worth where he's being drafted.

    Jacob Latz - Texas Rangers (ADP: Undrafted, 188th Pitcher Drafted)

    Chance at 130 innings: Between his MLB action and his Triple-A innings, Latz threw 101 innings last year, so a jump to 130 isn't that crazy, and it's more likely that he reaches 150 innings. Now, that is something that he hasn't done in professional baseball, but Latz only has one major injury, with an elbow sprain back in 2019. He has just been in a hybrid role in the past, but I think this year he has a good shot to stick in the starting rotation.

    Strikeout Upside: Latz had just a 22% strikeout rate last year, so you may not believe that there's too much upside here, but he also had a 14.6% swinging strike rate, which is really appealing. As a left-handed pitcher, he has a changeup that he throws 30% of the time to righties and posts a 21.6% SwStr%. He only uses it in two-strike counts to righties 29% of the time, but it has an above-average PutAway Rate, so I think we could see some strikeout growth if he leans on the changeup more. His slider has also performed well in two-strike counts to righties, so he does have multiple avenues to attack them. It's actually lefties who hit his slider better because it doesn't have sweeper break. It had just league-average swinging strike rates to lefties and below league-average PutAway Rate, so the real issue for Latz may be how he gets swings and misses against lefties.

    Fastball Success: Latz's fastball is a solid pitch. It sits at 94 mph with above-average extension and elite vertical break, which gives it a flat attack angle. He uses it up in the zone well, particularly against righties, which is why the swinging strike rate is higher against them. The pitch doesn't perform as well to lefties, but he attacks the zone with it well. If he had a sinker that he could jam inside to lefties, that might not only make the four-seam play up more but also set up the slider away even better. That could be a crucial pitch for Latz to develop.

    Deep Pitch Mix: At the end of the day, Latz has a true three-pitch mix to righties, while mixing in the curveball about 8% of the time, but is just a two-pitch pitcher to lefties, while using his changeup 9% of the time against them. This is another place where we can come back to a sinker being a good addition for Latz, so we should keep an eye out for that. As it stands, Latz has a good fastball and a plus changeup to righties, and we saw guys like Noah Cameron ride that to a strong season in 2025. Latz could duplicate that type of success even without the sinker, but I think he'll need to improve his swing-and-miss to lefties to truly break out.

    Confidence to finish in the top 25: 2/10.

    Starting Pitching Prospects Unlikely to Break Camp

    Payton Tolle - Boston Red Sox

    Tolle rocketed through the Red Sox system last season, beginning the year in High-A and then finishing by throwing 16.1 innings for the Red Sox. It's the type of rapid ascent that usually denotes a clear breakout season on the horizon, but the Red Sox added so much depth to their starting rotation this offseason that Tolle seems likely to begin the year in Triple-A. However, if he does get a chance to pitch for the Red Sox, he's absolutely somebody to watch. At 6'6", 250 pounds, Tolle is a huge dude, and his four-seam fastball could be the pitch in the minor leagues. He can command it well in the zone, and he also posted an absurd 23% swinging-strike rate. The pitch has elite extension, which helps the average velocity play up. In fact, many of the metrics on the fastball don't stand out, but the arm angle and his command of it help it to produce elite results. He also adds to that a slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Those pitches certainly need refinement, but the Red Sox were working on that last year. He changed his changeup into a kick change, added a curveball, and then also added a cutter, which he used a ton in his brief MLB sample size. It often takes a while for new pitches to click, and last season was Tolle's first season ever in professional baseball, so it makes sense to assume there will be continued growth in 2026.

    Thomas White - Miami Marlins

    Robbie Snelling may be the starting pitching prospect in Miami who gets an MLB chance first, but Thomas White is the higher upside option. The 17th overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, finished last season by just annihilating Double-A hitters, which earned him two starts in Triple-A. On the season, he had a 2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 145/51 K/BB ratio in 89.2 innings. He's always been good, but his strikeout rate jumped to the next level this season because of the addition of a kick-changeup. As you've read a bunch of times in this article, left-handed pitchers with elite changeups tend to be really hard to hit, and we can add Thomas White to that list. The pitch had some consistency issues last year, but it was his first year with the new grip, and I think it will be a major piece to complement his good four-seam fastball, gyro slider that he can command well inside the zone, and sweeper that he uses for swings and misses. Miami has a few weak links in its rotation now, so it wouldn't be crazy for White to get an MLB start before June is done.

    Dodgers notes: Edwin Díaz, Roki Sasaki, River Ryan

    SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 25: Pitcher Edwin Díaz #3 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning of a spring training game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 25, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) | Getty Images

    Edwin Díaz pitched a scoreless frame in his Dodgers debut on Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields, working around a single with a strikeout in the fourth inning.

    The plan is for Díaz to pitch once more for the Dodgers this week before joining Puerto Rico for the World Baseball Classic.

    “I had to ramp up a little more quickly than normal,” Díaz said Wednesday of his offseason, as shown on SportsNet LA. “I prepared myself in the offseason to be ready right now, and I’m feeling really good and ready to go.”


    Roki Sasaki threw a cutter 11 times in his 36 pitches on Wednesday against Arizona, a pitch per Baseball Savant he did not throw at all last regular season. That was among the things the second-year Dodger was working on in his first outing, but he showed similar results to his starts last season, with poor fastball command. In all, Sasaki allowed three runs on three hits, including a pair of doubles, and two walks. He struck out three but also threw more balls (19) than strikes (17).

    From David Brandt at Associated Press:

    “I thought he was overthrowing,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “I haven’t seen that all spring. It’s probably just getting into live competition. I thought he was a little too bullish on the fastball, but he was getting behind in the first inning.”


    River Ryan on Wednesday pitched in his first game since August 10, 2024, part of the long road back from Tommy John surgery. He pitched a scoreless inning with a strikeout, working around a walk, and threw more balls (11) than strikes (eight), but was an important milestone nonetheless.

    “It was a big step just to get out there and compete against another team. I still think he’s a ways away as far as fine tuning, but just to get out there in compete mode and not rehab mode, that’s a good thing,” Roberts said, as shown on SportsNet LA. “He’s off to a good start, he feels good. Just kind of honing in those pitches and he’ll be just fine.”

    He’s also in Dodgers camp with his brother Ryder, a non-roster invitee, who as Bill Plunkett at the Orange County Register noted was the Ryan brothers’ first time as teammates since 2014, when the pair were in high school together. From Plunkett:

    “Hopefully our schedules line up so we can throw in the same game,” River said. “That would be really cool.”


    Dodgers announcers Stephen Nelson and José Mota will call Pool C in the World Baseball Classic in Tokyo, on the world feed.

    What do you expect from Trevor Rogers this year?

    BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 19: Trevor Rogers #28 of the Baltimore Orioles walks to the dugout after striking out Austin Slater #29 of the New York Yankees during the second inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 19, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images) | Getty Images

    Last week, Camden Chat’s Tyler Young wrote of Kyle Bradish: “All of this offseason talk around the Orioles’ ‘need’ for an ace seems to ignore the fact that they already have one in-house.”

    I’d venture to say they might even have two.

    That belief, of course, depends on how much you’re banking on Trevor Rogers’ 2025 breakthrough being sustainable. The lefty, who’d been all but written off after his rough O’s debut in 2024, was a revelation last year, breaking franchise and MLB records on his way to a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts and earning Most Valuable Oriole honors. He was the Birds’ shining light in an otherwise dismal season, and he’ll most certainly be starting one of the Orioles’ first two games of the year.

    The projection systems, though, are not sold that Rogers has turned into a true ace.

    • ZiPS: 25 GS, 3.95 ERA, 2.1 WAR
    • Steamer: 26 GS, 4.20 ERA, 1.9 WAR

    While even the most optimistic Orioles fans probably aren’t expecting Rogers to post a 1.81 mark again, the projections predict a particularly sharp regression of more than 200 points of ERA. They also forecast that even if he gets 7-8 more starts than last year, he’ll be worth far less than the 3.3 WAR he posted in 2025.

    The projections don’t have any vendetta or personal beef against Rogers. Remember: they aren’t human. They’re just formulas, spitting out numbers based on a whole bunch of data. And in this case, Rogers’ less-than-stellar career up until 2025 waters down the projections for his 2026 season. In his three previous years, he posted ERAs of 5.47, 4.00, and 4.92. And his 2025 stats, while mind-blowing, came in just 18 starts, just over half of a season’s worth. So it’s no surprise that the emotionless, unfeeling computers aren’t predicting great things for his 2026 campaign.

    But what about you, Camden Chatters? What do you think Rogers is capable of this season? Let us know in the comments.