When the Yankees re-signed Paul Blackburn to a one-year deal back in December, I actually liked the move. A veteran pitcher who had spent his entire career as a (rather lackluster) starter, he was, at a minimum, important early-season depth for a team that knew heading into the winter that it would have three starting pitchers — Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt — open the year on the injured list. And while the rotation depth was fortunately not tested any further in spring training, having a pair of veteran arms in Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough was the type of Plan B that big-market teams with larger payrolls should always have.
This wasn’t why I was intrigued, however. Three years ago, in September 2023, the Yankees claimed journeyman starter Luke Weaver off waivers. They liked what they saw, re-signed him to a one-year deal with a team option for 2025, and although they had him prepare as a starter in spring training, they had him ticketed for a spot in the bullpen from pretty much day one. You know the rest — he became a dominant bullpen arm that locked down the closer’s role in the Yankees’ 2024 AL pennant run, followed that up with an up-and-down 2025, and signed a two-year deal with the Mets in free agency this past winter. To me, Blackburn seemed like a perfect candidate to try this again.
Fast forward to June, and it seems like this is the Yankees’ goal. Unlike Yarbrough, who primarily — although not exclusively, as we saw on Monday night — pitches when the team needs multiple innings (particularly in garbage time), Blackburn has been increasingly used in more and more…I wouldn’t say high leverage roles, but middle innings in games that the Yankees neither have a large lead nor have put up the white flag. And for his part, he hasn’t been half bad in that role: since the start of May, he has allowed just five runs, three of which came back on May 13th in Baltimore.
However, is this performance sustainable, or is Blackburn’s stretch of strong performances yet more evidence for the volatility of relief pitchers? The underlying data is, well, rather contradictory.
Blackburn has done a very good job at both avoiding hard contact and generating groundballs — in fact, his groundball percentage ranks 14th out of the 183 relievers with at least 20 innings so far this season, and his hard hit percentage 64th. At the same time, though, he struggles to get batters to chase at pitches out of the zone or whiff at pitches in the zone, a combo that makes him one of the worst strikeout pitchers in the game. While Tim Hill (69.8 GB%, 11.8 K%), Yennier Cano (61.7 GB%, 19.8 K%), and Tyler Rogers (68.9 GB%, 15.1 K%) prove that you can still be a reliable reliever — nay, even a dominant one — while pitching more to contact, it does leave less room for error.
Looking deeper into the Statcast data, Blackburn has thrown seven different types of pitches this year, a reflection of his background as a starter: a sinker, a cutter, a changeup, a curveball, a sweeper, a four-seamer, and a slider. Of these, he tends to lean on his sinker and his cutter against righties, mixing in his sweeper against righties. Against lefties, he has used a wider repertoire, leaning on his cutter, changeup, and curveball and mixing in the sinker. He’s only thrown eight fastballs and four sliders, and given the context, I’m pretty sure the sliders were simply sweepers that didn’t register correctly on Statcast.
Not surprisingly, given the larger number of right-handed hitters compared to lefties, Blackburn has combined to throw his sinker and cutter a whopping 65.4 percent of the time. Unfortunately, these are also the pitches that hitters have done the most damage on: batters are hitting .324 against the sinker and .357 against the cutter, and the xBA for each shows relatively little regression should be expected, at least in terms of batted ball data (.338 and .275, respectively). The changeup, cutter, and sweeper, on the other hand, have been very effective in their smaller sample sizes, responsible for 11 of his 20 strikeouts and just four of his 27 hits.
So where do we stand on our original question? In truth, the question is still up in the air. Should Blackburn be able to generate more soft grounders with the sinker, he may be able to continue this hot stretch and become a solid middle reliever for the team as we head into the summer months. But unless he can find a way to generate some swing-and-miss, however, it seems unlikely that he can pull a Weaver and turn himself into what the Yankees are looking for, another true bullpen ace.