Category: Baseball

Leave it to the White Sox to sully the start of Spring Training for the man who may be their best acquisition in a long time. The news should all be about Munetaka Murakami (no matter how the locker room crew spelled his name), and instead it’s about Chris Getz proving his incompetence once again.

Getz has apparently finally figured out that another newcomer, Luisangel Acuña, isn’t actually a switch-hitter, as Getz had called him. And called him again. And again. And again. And again, so many times it’s very, very hard not to believe that Getz actually thought he’d traded Luis Robert Jr., for a player who didn’t just hit right-handed (and who, incidentally, has fairly big platoon splits, .592 OPS vs. righties, .732 vs. lefties).

Now Getz being a fool isn’t exactly man bites dog, but what’s more worrisome is that if he thought Acuña was a switch-hitter, did he also think he was an outfielder? That seems to be where the Sox plan to play the young speedster, despite the fact that both the Rangers and Mets had found that he’s a very fine middle infielder but can’t hack it in center. Guess we’ll have to wait to find out.

But let’s move on to the man who should be getting the attention, and whose performance could mean the difference between White Sox losses in the high-90s or worse (as most predicting algorithms believe will be the case) or the low-90s (as PECOTA anticipates).

Murakami the Good?
Reports are that the reason contending teams didn’t cough up the nine-figure offers prognosticators expected for the Japanese slugger is pretty straightforward. While Murakami boasts immense power, he strikes out way too much, has way too much swing-and-miss, and — and this is the important part, because lots of power hitters whiff a bunch — he struggles against pitches faster than 92 mph. That wasn’t a huge deal in Japan, where most pitches don’t throw that fast, but would render him impotent in an MLB where almost everybody could just blow balls by him.

Thing is, that 92 mph-plus problem depends on why it exists. It could very well be that Murakami just hasn’t faced enough mid-90s or higher heat to get used to it and adjust, in which case live pitching, lots of hours on the Trajekt machine and maybe a tiny swing adjustment could have him ready to take on major league velocity by the start of the regular season, or shortly thereafter.

Also on the good side is that Murakami’s not apt to become depressed, playing a for a team that usually loses. His Japanese team, the Yakult Swallows, has been perennially as bad as the Sox. It’s even possible he thought playing for the White Sox instead of a good team for a couple of years will give him a chance to adjust to a new country, language and level of play without the pressure to be a star immediately, as would be the case if he’d signed for a contender.

If this is the case, we should enjoy watching Murakami swat baseballs out of The Rate at a happy rate.

Murakami the Bad?
Alternatively, the reason Murakami has struggled against pitches faster than 92 mph could be that his reflexes are only so good. Maybe his brain/body/swing combo is just a millisecond or two slower than it needs to be in the big leagues, as happens to many power hitters as they slide downhill (or fall off a cliff, like José Abreu sadly did) in their mid-30s. That’s certainly possible, given that roughly 99.999999999999999% of humanity doesn’t have reaction time anywhere close to his.

If that turns out to be the case, it could be a very long season for Mune and the Sox, especially given how terrible his fielding is expected to be.

Murakami the Maybe?
Then there’s a middle ground, where the slugger can catch faster pitches down by his knees (as is often the case for lefties) but can’t cope with high heat, or even high almost-heat. That would mean relying on pitchers to make mistakes, but a whole lot of power hitters have had long and successful careers only being able to hit mistakes, especially early on (Kyle Schwarber, anyone?)

The upper side of this seems to be where the algorithms used for projections think Murakami will land. Steamer and ZiPS are pretty close in what they see for him, and FanGraphs Depth Charts is close to both of them, with him hitting a very respectable .232/.342/.449, for a wRC+ of 120, with 30 homers and 80 RBIs. However, that only adds up to a 2.2 WAR (just barely better than the level considered major-league starter), with his WAR brought way down because of abysmal defense.

(It will be interesting to see what the Sox, who like to pretend to care about defense, will do if Murakami’s D is as bad as advertised and he’s best moved among the other DH contenders who also can’t field a lick, like Andrew Benintendi and Lenyn Sosa, plus one of the catchers. If you don’t become a good defender in Japan, where D is high art, it’s unlikely to occur here.)

But it’s spring!
Well, baseball spring, anyway. So let’s go with Murakami the Good.

And, what the heck, let’s even pretend Acuña’s a switch-hitter. And good outfielder.

The Dodgers are in rarefied air in their long franchise history going into 2026, having won consecutive championships for the first time. What’s next on the checklist is trying to become the fifth MLB team to win at least three World Series in a row.

MLB teams winning 3+ championships in a row

• New York Yankees 1949-53 (5)
• New York Yankees 1936-39 (4)
• Oakland A’s 1972-74
• New York Yankees 1998-2000

The Yankees understandably dominate this list, with several extended periods of dominance in their storied history. These represent different eras as well. The two longest title streaks came in a league of 16 teams and no divisional play. The A’s in the 1970s were in a 24-team MLB and had to go through a best-of-5 League Championship Series. The Yankees from 1998-2000 are the only team of this group to be in our modern era, with 30 MLB teams and two extra rounds of playoffs before the World Series.

The Yankees are the only MLB team to win three titles in a row after Pat Riley trademarked the term “Three-peat” in 1989. Riley was ahead of his time, even though his Lakers team that year ran into a Pistons-sized roadblock in the NBA Finals, getting swept after an 11-0 start to their postseason. Multiple trademarks for “Three-peat” are still active under Riles & Company, Inc., which means any such marketing (shirts, hats, etc.) have to go through Riley for approval and/or compensation for use.

The Dodgers in 2026 are just the third team coming off consecutive championships and going for a third straight title in the wild card era, along with those Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays in 1994. In all there have been 21 teams prior to the Dodgers to win the previous two World Series.

Year	Team	W	L	Pct	Finish
1909	Cubs	104	49	.680	2nd (behind 110-win Pirates)
1912	Philadelphia A’s	90	62	.592	3rd (behind 105-win Red Sox)
1917	Red Sox	90	62	.592	2nd (behind 100-win White Sox)
1923	NY Giants	95	58	.621	lost World Series (4-2) to NYY
1929	Yankees	88	66	.571	2nd (behind 104-win A’s)
1931	Philadelphia A’s	107	45	.704	lost World Series (4-3) to StL
1938	Yankees	99	53	.651	won World Series (4-0) over Cubs
1939	Yankees	106	45	.702	won World Series (4-0) over Reds
1940	Yankees	88	66	.571	3rd
1951	Yankees	98	56	.636	won World Series (4-2) over NYG
1952	Yankees	95	59	.617	won World Series (4-3) over Dodgers
1953	Yankees	99	52	.656	won World Series (4-2) over Dodgers
1954	Yankees	103	51	.669	2nd (behind 111-win Cle)
1963	Yankees	104	57	.646	lost World Series (4-0) to LA
1974	Oakland A’s	90	72	.556	won World Series (4-1) over LA
1975	Oakland A’s	98	64	.605	lost ALCS (3-0) at Bos
1977	Reds	88	74	.543	2nd (behind 98-win LA)
1979	Yankees	89	71	.556	4th
1994	Blue Jays	55	60	.478	3rd
2000	Yankees	87	74	.540	won World Series (4-1) over NYM
2001	Yankees	95	65	.594	lost World Series (4-3) to AZ

Eleven teams, just over half of the 21, reached the World Series after winning the previous two, with seven championships. In the divisional era, four of seven teams reached the World Series, with two wins.

This is the sixth time the Dodgers have won two pennants in a row — 1952-53 and 1955-56 in Brooklyn, plus 1965-66, 1977-78, 2017-18, and 2024-25 in Los Angeles. They have yet to win three pennants in a row, and this is their only time winning consecutive championships.

The only one of the previous 21 back-to-back champs to finish under .500 in Year 3 were the 1994 Blue Jays, who were 55-60 when a strike ended that season in August.

It stands to reason that a team winning two championships in a row will still be good the next year. These 22 teams have an average .609 winning percentage, roughly 99 wins over 162 games.

The Dodgers this year are in that range, projected to have the best record in baseball by a wide margin. But like this current era of Dodgers baseball, they won’t be judged by the regular season, but rather how they do in October.

The first thing I thought of — and maybe you did, too — on seeing the name “HESTER” was Devin Hester, the Hall of Fame Bears kick returner/defensive back.

Obviously, this isn’t Devin Hester.

I had no recollection of this Diamondbacks player when BCB reader Clark Addison sent me the photo, so off I went to baseball-reference.com to look him up.

John Hester played for the D-backs in 2009 and 2010, then for the Angels in 2012 and 2013. A catcher, he played a total of 93 MLB games.

Exactly two of those were at Wrigley Field.

Here, we see him sliding into second base, with a relay going to first on a double-play attempt.

One of the games Hester played in Wrigley was in early May, so the ivy couldn’t have been as thick as we see it here.

This play happened Friday, Oct. 2, 2009 in the top of the sixth. The D-backs were leading 7-0. Hester drew a walk after Eric Byrnes had led off the inning with a home run.

Billy Buckner hit into a double play, and that’s what we are looking at here. Billy Buckner? No, not the Bill Buckner who played for the Cubs. This Billy Buckner pitched for the Royals, Diamondbacks, Angels and Padres from 2007-14. Pitchers, of course, still batted back then. In 30 MLB plate appearances, this was the only GIDP of Buckner’s career.

The Cubs second baseman is Jeff Baker, who played for the team from 2009-12.

The Diamondbacks defeated the Cubs 12-3 that afternoon, seven of the runs off Tom Gorzelanny.

Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be any video of this game that’s survived, so all I can show you is this play, another little slice of Cubs history.

Yesterday, I looked a few things that were off interest to me where the PECOTA projections were concerned. For the most part, I would agree with what was said in this article that talked about the release of PECOTA and how it is pretty accurate these days.

The only downside, of course, is that PECOTA Week comes with few surprises, anymore. If you’re a fan engaged enough with the game to care about projections, you’ve probably got a rough but accurate idea of what PECOTA is going to say about most guys (and, thus, most teams) before you click through to the standings page or the spreadsheet. The model is always being honed and improved upon, but we’re two decades into this ritual now. Many of you have started to feel and roll with the projections, and even to anticipate them.

So, when it comes to the team’s pitching staff, we should more or less guess what it is going to say. The pitching staff has been pretty good the past few seasons, so the projections are likely going to be kind.

Still, there were some interesting observations.

Cristopher Sanchez: still an Ace

There was maybe a tinge of hesitancy when talking about Sanchez last year and letting him ascend into the conversation of “Top 5 starters in the game” because of his background. He struggled to get his footing as a starter for a long time before finally having it start to click in 2023. His season in 2024 was very good, but again, without the background of being a top prospect, there was at least to be some doubt he could keep it up.

Not only did he keep it up, he was the runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting last season, comfortably entered that conversation about being one of the five best pitchers in the game and if PECOTA has anything to say about it, will remain there. By WARP, PECOTA has Sanchez being the fifth best starter behind Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet and Bryan Woo. By DRA- (Deserved Run Average, scaled where numbers below 100 are good), Sanchez projects to be again fifth, behind the same pitchers plus Chris Sale and Cole Ragans.

If there was any doubt that Sanchez is one of the best pitchers in the game today, there should be none. His transformation is truly one of the best developmental stories in this organization in a long, long time.

We really should just devote a day to Sanchez.

Zack Wheeler’s top comps are really fun

One of the things PECOTA likes to do is draw on historical comparables to show you what each pitcher should remind you. Obviously, when you’re being compared to the greats, you’re one of the great pitchers and vice versa with being compared to the historical road apples. Wheeler’s comparables are pretty fun: Bob Gibson, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Now, this isn’t prime Bob Gibson we’re talking about. It’s 36 year old Bob Gibson. And 36 year old Bob Gibson was no slouch. Neither were Scherzer nor Verlander. In fact, these were their lines during their age 36 season:

Gibson, age 36: 34 GS, 278 IP, 7.3 H/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 139 ERA+, 7.1 bWAR
Scherzer, age 36: 30 GS, 179 1/3 IP, 6.0 H/9, 11.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 167 ERA+, 6.1 bWAR
Verlander, age 36: 34 GS, 223 IP, 5.5 H/9, 12.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 179 ERA+, 7.4 bWAR, 1 Cy Young award

These are all time great seasons for any pitcher, let alone ones that are already getting mail from AARP. To see that PECOTA puts Wheeler in that company is a reminder that his skillset should age well as the years continue to pile on.

However – and it’s a pretty large “however” – none of those pitchers were coming off the injury that Wheeler is coming off of. We simply have no idea, nor does PECOTA have any idea, of well Wheeler will perform once he finally steps back on a major league mound. We can make assumptions, but without a ton of players to compare him to, we just have no way of being able to know for sure how he’ll be. If PECOTA is any indicator, he’ll be just fine, but the injury is the unknown this season and the #1 storyline that will weave itself through the 2026 season.

The bullpen finally has some strikeout potential

One of the issues the Phillies have felt they have had with their bullpen is that there wasn’t much swing and miss stuff outside of one or two relievers. It seemed to be a point of emphasis in their offseason dealings this year, to make sure that they get pitchers who don’t need to depend on the defense to get out and do so, particularly, from the right side.

Now with an overhauled bullpen, PECOTA thinks they have a group that will be able to strike out hitters with some regularity. These are the projected K/9 numbers for the top seven arms that should be in the bullpen:

J. Duran: 10.39 K/9
O. Kerkering: 9.45 K/9
B. Keller: 8.40 K/9
J. Alvarado: 9.24 K/9
T. Banks: 7.64 K/9
Z. McCambley: 10.33 K/9
J. Bowlan: 9.08 K/9

The Keller number is probably a bit skewed by his just being a full time reliever for one season and most his past K/9 numbers were below seven. His 2025 season was closer to 10, so there is some built in skepticism.

And Tanner Banks isn’t really known for striking people out anyway, so that projection doesn’t really bother me.

What is fun is that they have a bunch of arms that can now get strikeouts late in games. We’ll see if a lot of this comes true, but if PECOTA is right about this, they are a lot deeper than last year.

The high school boys/girls basketball seasons are still ongoing, but one of America’s favorite past times is now beginning to take center stage. One that stands out during the spring months is high school baseball, with there being many great teams all around the national scene ready to hit the diamond to break out the cleats, gloves and bats. Now it’s time to roll out the first Rivals High School Baseball Top 25 rankings of 2026.

Topping the rankings to start off the 2026 preseason for high school softball season are Florida’s Majory Stoneman Douglas, which went 31-2 and won the FHSAA Class 7A state championship a year ago. The Eagles return a bevy of starters from last year’s crew as they’re off to a 3-0 start and top the first set of rankings. Which other teams join Majory Stoneman Douglas in our first-ever Rivals High School Top 25 baseball rankings?

We dive into the best high school baseball programs around the nation and give you our take on which teams stay in the conversation.

1. Majory Stoneman Douglas Eagles (Fla.) (3-0)

Hard to argue with this choice at the very top because of the overall consistency the Eagles play at year in and year out. Majory Stoneman Douglas ended the 2025 Florida high school baseball season by winning the Class 7A state championship and boasting a 31-2 record. That’s by no coincidence they’re considered one of the best in the nation and much has to do with them being at the top because of some of the returning talent. The Eagles will feature senior left-handed pitcher Gio Rojas, who is committed to the University of Miami. Rojas is a projected first round draft pick in this summer’s MLB Draft and will be one of the country’s best on the mound after going 13-0 with a 0.73 ERA last spring.

2. St. John Bosco Braves (Calif.) (0-0)

Unlike down in the Sunshine State, the state of California has yet to see its high school baseball season’s first pitch, but that’s right around the corner and topping all of the schools out west is the St. John Bosco Braves. The Braves’ roster is stacked with returning talent from the 30-4 team from 2025, including on the pitcher’s mound. Returning with the most experience of all the hurlers is senior Gavin Cervantes, who went 8-0 with 44 strikeouts in 2025. Another up and coming arm to watch for is sophomore Brayden Krakowski, who went 5-0 with 31 strikeouts last spring.

3. Jesuit Tigers (Fla.) (2-0)

Already off to a 2-0 start to the Florida high school baseball season, the Jesuit Tigers look to be the favorites to win it all in the FHSAA’s Class 4A classification. With victories already over Wesley Chapel (9-1 win) and Berkeley Prep (5-0 win), the Tigers have already shown why they’re one of the country’s best programs once again. Leading the way for Jesuit this spring is the bat of infielder/outfielder Christian Sheffield (Florida A&M commitment), the son of former MLB star Gary Sheffield. The younger Sheffield has impressed thus far, batting .500 and driving in three runs off of two hits.

4. IMG Academy Ascenders (Fla.) (2-0)

Always lurking around the Top 5 and starting inside of it for Rivals’ first-ever Top 25 high school baseball rankings are the IMG Academy Ascenders, which are off to a sizzling 2-0 start. The Ascenders, the third Florida team among the top five, start off fairly high for us due part to the victories they have already notched on their schedule, with wins over No. 6 ranked Etowah (Ga.) and Lowndes (Ga.). IMG Academy is always going to be well stocked with baseball talent that’s preparing to head off to the next level and this spring is no different, no by the talents of Maple Mountain (UT) transfer Cry Chrisman, who hit 19 home runs in 2025.

5. Orange Lutheran Lancers (Calif.) (0-0)

Rounding out the Top 5 of the Rivals High School Baseball Rankings are the Orange Lutheran Lancers, which could make a strong argument in being higher on this list of teams. The Lancers went 23-7 last season, but with the talent the team possesses at the plate, it’s hard to not have this group in the conversation of the nation’s best. Player to watch for the Lancers on the mound is senior pitcher Gary Morse, who is already committed to the University of Tennessee. Morse led the Orange Lutheran pitching staff in 2025 with a 8-2 record and a 0.94 ERA.

Rivals High School Baseball Rankings Nos. 11-25

6. Etowah Eagles (Ga.) (3-1)
7. VeniceIndians (Fla.) (3-0)
8. GrapevineMustangs (TX) (0-0)
9. Blessed Trinity CatholicTitans (Ga.) (3-0)
10. South Walton Seahawks (Fla.) (2-1)

11. De La Salle Spartans (Calif.) (0-0)
12. TrinityShamrocks (Ky.) (0-0)
13. CoronaPanthers (Calif.) (0-0)
14. CasteelColts (Ariz.) (0-0)
15. Trinity Christian AcademyConquerors (Fla.) (1-1)

16. MemorialWarriors (TX) (0-0)
17. Huntington BeachOilers (Calif.) (0-0)
18. CalallenWildcats (TX) (0-0)
19. Magnolia Heights SchoolChiefs (MS) (0-0)
20. Mater DeiMonarchs (Calif.) (0-0)

21. St. LaurenceVikings (IL) (0-0)
22. BasicWolves (Nev.) (0-0)
23. The Stony Brook School Bears (NY) (0-0)
24. DelbartonGreen Wave (NJ) (0-0)
25. Lake TravisCavaliers (TX) (0-0)

How to Follow National High School Baseball

For national high school baseball fans looking to keep up with scores around the nation, staying updated on the action is now easier than ever with the Rivals High School Scoreboard. This comprehensive resource provides real-time updates and final scores from across the state, ensuring you never miss a moment of the high school sports scene action. From nail-biting finishes to dominant performances, the Rivals High School Scoreboard is your one-stop destination for tracking all the sports excitement across the country.

Three Is Just a Number

– byMario Crescibene

Major League Baseball honors three players with league-wide commemorative days. Larry Doby isn’t one of them. I wanted to know why — despite integrating the American League — MLB refuses to honor Larry Doby with his own day. So I reached out to the Cleveland Guardians and Major League Baseball to find out why.

The Guardians coordinated with MLB and provided an official response:

Major League Baseball has league-wide days for three individual players – Jackie Robinson, Roberto Clemente, and Lou Gehrig.  While there are a lot of players who have made an enormous impact on the game both on and off the field, MLB has saved the significant distinction of a league-wide tribute to these three select players.  They were selected because:

1. Jackie was the first player in all of baseball to break the color barrier
2. Gehrig for his courageous fight against ALS which is still a degenerative disease that MLB and its clubs raise money and awareness for
3. Clemente, who meant an enormous amount to the community of Latino players and fans.  Clemente lost his life in tragic fashion as he was bringing supplies to earthquake victims and as a result, MLB honors him each year with a special day and an award recognizing the social responsibility efforts of its players.

The league response highlighted the ways in which they do honor Doby:

After his retirement, MLB hired Doby where he worked in several capacities… for 13 years (1990-2003), making significant contributions to the office… Major League Baseball has [also] honored Larry Doby by creating the Larry Doby Award which is presented to the MVP of the Futures Game.

The response also pointed out that he is already a highly celebrated legend here in Cleveland:

The Guardians have honored Larry Doby regularly including a statue at Progressive Field, retired number #14, and establishing “Doby Day” playing home annually to honor his debut day July 5, including promotional item giveaways to fans. 

From the official response, one thing is abundantly clear: while Cleveland honors Larry Doby, the league he integrated does not. MLB says honoring three players league-wide is enough. Let’s explore Larry Doby’s impact on baseball, and see if he makes a case for a fourth.

Larry Doby integrated the American League in 1947, just eleven weeks after Jackie Robinson broke baseball’s color barrier. But those eleven weeks made all the difference in how they were prepared for what was coming.

Jackie Robinson had Branch Rickey — the Dodgers executive who spent years planning integration, who counseled Robinson on what to expect, and built an institutional support system around him. Robinson spent the 1946 season in the minor leagues, learning to handle the pressure and hostility before ever stepping onto a major league field. Larry Doby had none of that. No mentorship. No institutional plan. No preparation period. He was playing in the Negro Leagues one day and in the major leagues the next.

As Doby said:

“Jackie had it better in one way. When he went to spring training in 1946, he had a whole year to get adjusted. I came up in the middle of the season. I was 23 years old, and I had to perform immediately.”

“Nobody showed me the ropes. There was nobody to talk to, nobody to explain what to expect. I was completely alone.”

And when he met his new teammates, it wasn’t with open arms. While Jackie Robinson eventually found allies in the Dodgers clubhouse — teammates like Pee Wee Reese who famously put his arm around Robinson at Crosley Field, publicly showing solidarity — Larry Doby walked into a Cleveland clubhouse that wanted nothing to do with him:

“Some of the players turned their backs on me, wouldn’t shake my hand. It was a very lonely feeling. Even when you’re on the field, you’re alone.”

“There were some players who wouldn’t room with me, who wouldn’t sit next to me on the bus or in the dugout. I had to overcome that, and it was difficult.”

He received racist treatment as the Indians traveled across the country as well. While his white teammates checked into team hotels, ate at team restaurants, and traveled together, Doby was barred from joining them. Hotels refused him rooms. Restaurants turned him away. In city after city, he had to navigate unfamiliar streets searching for Black neighborhoods where he’d be allowed to sleep and eat. After night games, exhausted from playing, he’d have to find his own lodging — sometimes miles from the ballpark — while his teammates rested comfortably at the team hotel.

“I couldn’t eat with my teammates. I couldn’t stay in the same hotels. I’d have to go find a black family to stay with, or stay in a completely different hotel across town. And then the next day, I was expected to play like nothing was wrong.”

The racist treatment continued for years, but of course, despite every obstacle thrown in his way, Doby would go on to have a Hall of Fame career. In 1948, he hit .301 and helped lead Cleveland to the World Series, where he hit .318 and became the first Black player to hit a home run in a World Series game. His performance helped propel Cleveland to their last championship. From 1949 to 1955, he was named an All-Star seven consecutive times, leading the American League in home runs in 1952 and 1954, and in RBIs in 1954. Over his thirteen-year career, Doby compiled a .283 batting average with 253 home runs, 970 RBIs, and 1,533 hits before being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1998. His impact extended beyond his playing days as he became the second Black manager in major league history when he took over the Chicago White Sox in 1978, was posthumously awarded the Congressional Gold Medal in 2023, and was honored by Cleveland with a retired number 14 and a statue at Progressive Field.

And despite always being “the second African American” to play baseball, Larry Doby never let it make him bitter:

“For a while, every time they mentioned me, it was ‘Larry Doby, the second black player.’ I never worried about being second. I just wanted to be treated as a ballplayer, as a human being.”

Larry Doby just wanted to be treated as a ballplayer, as a human being. Major League Baseball should start by treating him like the legend he is. His humility, Hall of Fame career, and groundbreaking legacy demand a league-wide day celebrating his contributions to baseball. Instead, MLB honors him with a minor league award — for a man who never played in the minors. The only thing more absurd than that is claiming there’s logic to their three-player policy. Why three? Is it for three strikes? Three outs? Well there are four balls to a walk, so give Larry Doby his base.

July 5th should be Larry Doby Day league-wide. Every team, every stadium, every player wearing number 14. Because the league he integrated owes him more than a Futures Game trophy.

In Mariners news…

• All eyes are on Mariners pitching prospect Kade Anderson so far this spring and he’s done nothing but impress.

Kade Anderson strikes outa Mastrobuoni, Arozarena and Canzone pic.twitter.com/Asczzu3Xdu

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) February 14, 2026

• More on Kade Anderson, according to Shannon Drayer no one in the Mariners organization is willing to rule out the possibility of him pitching for the big club in 2026.

Around the league…

• The San Diego Padres signed recently released outfielder Nick Castellanos to a league-minimum deal yesterday.
• Longtime Rockies pitcher Germán Márquez has been freed from pitching purgatory as he signed a one-year deal with the Padres yesterday to compete for the fifth spot in San Diego’s rotation.
• The Minnesota Twins signed journeyman reliever Andrew Chafin to a minor league deal yesterday.
• The Baltimore Orioles traded cash to the Minnesota Twins for reliever Jackson Kowar.
• The repairs to the roof of Tropicana Field are on schedule to finish in time for Opening Day.
• The ABS challenge system is coming to league this season and with it comes some unique challenges for the broadcasts we the fans watch this season.

As an organizing principle, I don’t believe in ranking relievers highly (or at all, really) in good systems. Time and again, the efforts of the public baseball community to project reliever performance have been shown to be little more than random guess work. There are also just a higher volume of other good players in more valuable roles for us to talk about.

That’s not a universal rule though. Ryan Lambert checked in at 19 (right behind the only other reliever on the list, Dylan Ross) on our offseason top-25 and I like him a lot. We’re all familiar with the “don’t scout the statline” maxim, but man what a statline; Lambert hasn’t posted an ERA above 1.71 or a K-BB% below 21.5% at any level since being drafted out of Oklahoma in the 8th round of the 2024 draft. When he started the year at Brooklyn (for some reason), he posted a -0.48 FIP (not a typo) over 8 innings with 17 strikeouts and a single walk.

Fundamentally, Lambert is a 95-and-a-slider relief prospect. It’s a very special 95 though, an IVB-heavy offering that he consistently blows by batters at the top of the zone. The Mets organizationally place a lot of emphasis on fastball whiffs, and Lambert fits that philosophy to a T. As for the slider component, it’s a less consistent offering, stuck in a bit of a middle ground between a high-velocity breaker (it consistently sits in the mid-to-upper 80s) or a sweeper with bigger movement. There have been flashes here though, and its’ not unreasonable to project a bit more improvement with additional reps. I’d guess he eventually lands on a bit of a harder slider that pairs better with his vert-heavy 4-seam rather than a true sweeper which might be too visually distinct to fool batters.

Lambert is of course not perfect. In addition to the slider being a work in progress, his command remains a bit spotty, and his walk rate ballooned to 14.7% in Double-A last year. The impact of his fastball might be somewhat muted at higher levels by his over-the-top slot, an arm angle where this type of movement isn’t as surprising for hitters. All the usual pitching and relief prospect risks apply as well.

But when you’re building from a foundation as strong as Lambert’s primary offering in a system that has been as successful as the Mets have been recently in improving pitchers, I think you bet on this upside playing out. There’s legitimate late-inning upside here, even if most relief prospects we say that about wind up as much less. Expect Lambert to start in Triple-A this season and get a shot with the major league side before too long.

Plus he’s a metalhead who loves steak. I mean, how can you not love that.

The San Diego Padres had a busy week and they ended it with a flurry of signings to bolster the roster. Spring Training opened with pitchers and catchers reporting, the rest of the big-league players reported to camp early or on time and the Padres signed Nick Castellanos, Griffin Canning and German Marquez providing the Friar Faithful with gifts on Valentine’s Day. It would appear the roster is set, but Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball wrote that decisions will have to be made regarding a couple players to make room on the 40-man roster to accommodate the new additions in her weekly recap. It is unknown at this time what those moves will be, but it appears the evaluation that takes place during Spring Training will be employed sooner than later. Of course, some players could be moved to the injured list, which would create room on the roster. Whatever manager Craig Stammen and general manager A.J. Preller decide, it seems the excitement that had been missing throughout the offseason is in full effect after one week of baseball activities.

Padres News:

• Barring a trade from Preller, it appears the roster moves are seemingly complete. If that is the case, perhaps the focus will now shift to extending the architect of the roster and the most successful stretch of baseball in Padres history. Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune makes the case that it would be prudent for San Diego to stick with Preller now and in the future.

Baseball News:

• The Los Angeles Dodgers added the best free agent closer available this offseason with a three-year, $69 million contract to make Edwin Diaz their closer. It was surprising that Diaz left the New York Mets considering reports that their offer was three years and $66 million. Diaz explained his reason for leaving stating the Dodgers did a good job of recruiting him.
• When the Boston Red Sox traded for Willson Contreras to play first base it seemed to be a move that spelled the end for first baseman Triston Casas. Boston has held on to Casas throughout the offseason even though it appears there is no place for him on the roster. Casas thinks he can be a fit on any team and maybe that is what the Red Sox are thinking as well.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks and their manager Torey Lovullo have seen enough after one week of Spring Training to name Merrill Kelly as the Opening Day starter against the Dodgers. It will be the first Opening Day start of Kelly’s career.

Beyond all the talk of splitters, sweepers, seam-shifted changeups, and the like, the best pitch in baseball remains the most elusive. The riding cutter, most famously the pitch that carried Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, remains one of the hardest pitches to pick up for pitchers, and one of the toughest to handle for hitters. With all-time great closer Kenley Jansen now in the fold, though in the later stages of his career, let’s take a look at his money making cut fastball.

The term “cutter” has been bastardized somewhat over the last 15 years or so, coming to refer to all kinds of pitches that are really just hard sliders. A cutter really does move gloveside without much drop, but an actual cut fastball is really a fourseam fastball with plenty of ride, but set with enough offset in either grip pressure or seam alignment, that it actually breaks late to the pitcher’s gloveside as well. Not too many pitchers, at least since these things started being tracked, have ever managed to throw a pitch like this.

Jansen got 18.8 inches of induced vertical break on the cutter in 2025. That’s better ride than most fourseam fastballs. It has enough backspin to drop 18.8 inches less than it should based on gravity alone. It also moves an average of 2.4 inches to his gloveside, making it a true cut fastball as opposed to just a straight riding fourseam fastball. That one pitch, averaging 92.8 mph, albeit with plus extension, and topping out at 96.7 mph, accounted for 81.4 percent of Jansen’s pitches in 2025. Even in it’s somewhat diminished form from his prime years, it still carried him to a 2.59 ERA last year, though his peripheral numbers were more worrisome.

Jansen will throw his slider here and there, and even less often, mix in a sinker against left-handed hitters as a change of pace, but for the most part you’re going to see cut fastball after cut fastball. That’s how he’s worked for most of his major league career, and he’s never really needed anything else.

He’s aided by crazy high spin rates for what is still essentially a fastball. He averaged 2610 rpms in 2025, which is absolutely elite by fourseamer standards. There aren’t enough pitchers capable of throwing a true cut fastball for there to even be a standard, but one of the great high spin fourseam pitchers of all time is now in-house as well in the form of Justin Verlander. The highest average fourseam spin rate Verlander has produced in the Statcast era was 2618 rpms back in 2018. Back in the days when the Tigers ace was routinely pumping 99-100+ late in games, no doubt he was averaging even higher rates, but spin wasn’t measured at the time.

The difficulty in throwing a true cut fastball is what makes it such a rarity. Casey Mize tried it early in his career, but struggled to control it. Even then, it didn’t really ride much, it mostly just had a bit of late cut. With a slider, sweeper, or curveball, all of which might move gloveside, you can hang on tighter and rip around or even on top of the ball in the case of a 12-6 curve. A cutter like Mariano or Kenley’s requires the fore and middle fingers to stay underneath the ball, while still throwing it hard and with as much spin as the top fourseam fastballs. That’s pretty hard to control. There aren’t even so many truly great riding fourseamers in the game, let alone having the wrist and finger dexterity to hold the ball slightly off-center and throwing it essentially the same way.

The true cut fastball always seems to come with a story. Mariano Rivera just started accidentally throwing the pitch in a catch session with teammate Ramiro Mendoza when he was still just a young reliever back in 1997. Rivera just throwing with his fourseam grip, but suddenly started producing a riding pitch that suddenly veered gloveside as Mendoza tried to catch it. They knew immediately that something strange was going on, but Rivera actually fought it because he was trying to throw a normal fourseamer and couldn’t stop getting that gloveside bite at the end. It took manager Joe Girardi to encourage him to just start throwing it, and the rest was history.

Jansen’s cut fastball has its own story, but it’s not too dissimilar. Jansen was signed out of Curacao by the Dodgers as an international free agent when he was 17 years old. He was a catcher at the time, even starting for Team Netherlands in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, and continued catching until well into his years in the minor leagues. Eventually, he just wasn’t hitting well enough, but his arm strength from behind the dish was impressive and the Dodgers encouraged him to convert to pitching late in the 2009 season. They saw enough to add him to the 40-man roster as a pitcher that winter, and he made his major league debut in July of 2010, only a year after his conversion. Now, 476 saves later, he’s a Detroit Tiger.

He stumbled upon the cut fastball in the same way Rivera did. In practice, his fourseam fastball was cutting late and he couldn’t figure out how to prevent it. Instead, Dodgers bullpen Mike Borzello recognized what was happening and put a stop to any attempts to straighten the fourseamer out. They began a process of refining the pitch instead, trying to tune his mechanics to maximize the spin, ride, and velocity of the pitch.

Like Rivera, Jansen doesn’t really know how he does it, and as he’s said repeatedly in interviews, it’s better not to try and understand it. He mentions that perhaps his long fingers might play a role, but clearly doesn’t want to unpack it. Guys who can do this, and it’s a small group, all seem to either want to keep it a secret, or simply don’t know why the pitch cuts. They all say they’re just trying to throw a fourseamer, and it just started cutting. Jansen mentions trying to finish through the pitch by just slightly getting around the side of it a bit more in the clip below, but earlier in his career he was still basically just shrugging and saying he didn’t know. High speed cameras and tons of data available have explained it a little, but even now I can’t really find another pitcher in the league who can do this. Plenty of guys have tried to throw this, and for the most part they just end up with a hard cutter that doesn’t ride.

I might theorize that trying to straighten out throws to second base as a catcher, rather than watching them tail back into the runner, may have something to do with his ability to do this so naturally. Still, it’s nowhere near that simple. A whole combination of elements from arm angle, finger shape and length, grip and release, to natural spin rate all come together to create a unicorn of a pitch, mastered by few. Add typically good command, a deceptive delivery, and tons of high leverage experience, and you have the ingredients of a future Hall of Famer.

Here are a few examples from the 2025 season below. Jansen will move the cutter up and down in the zone, so he’s not just trying to go up and away from right-handed hitters. The pitch doesn’t get same the amount of whiffs it did when he was sitting 94-95 mph with it, but despite the fact that he’s throwing it more than 80 percent of the time, it just doesn’t get barrelled up very often. Hitters know it’s coming,but it’s difficult to anticipate that explosive combination of ride and late, gloveside cut well enough to crush it. Opponents batted just .159 against the cutter in 2025. They also slugged a truly meager .293, though for once, his expected slugging percentage against the pitch was quite a bit higher, at .443.

Hard cutters aren’t so scarce anymore. Several teams, like the Cubs and the Brewers, are trying to teach this to guys who have the traits to potentially throw it well. But there are quite a few guys around the league who are already using a mid-90’s or faster cutter. Yet these are all just regular cutters. They’re good pitches, especially thrown with that kind of velocity, but they’re still distinct from Jansen’s in that they don’t having that induced vertical break.

Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase is the most obvious recent example of a really hard cutter for Tigers fans. But his cutter doesn’t ride either, it just cuts. That’s a really tough pitch at 98-100 mph, but it’s just a different beast than what I’m terming the true “cut fastball” that rides as well as it cuts. Corbin Burnes, now with the Orioles, developed his version with the Brewers, and they’ve worked with Brandon Woodruff on trying to throw it too. Neither has anywhere near the strange ride that Jansen produces. Former Giants closer and now Yankee, Camilo Doval, Carmen Mlodzinski, Graham Ashcraft, and Ryan Helsley are some other examples of hard cutters that are good pitches, but still don’t have that strange ride that Jansen, and formerly Rivera, had available.

The top spot on the Statcast leaderboard for vertical movement on a cutter goes to Jansen at 18.8 inches, Wander Suero of the Braves at 17.2 inches and averaging 92.1 mph and league average extension, is second and that’s really it. No one else has a cutter with more than 15.2 inches of induced vertical break. You just don’t see many outlier pitches like this in baseball.

If there was a candidate to try and develop this pitch on the Tigers, it probably would be Justin Verlander, or perhaps Troy Melton. They’re natural supinators with relatively high arm slots and high spin rate fourseamers with ride. But it just doesn’t seem teachable. They could throw a more straightforward cutter, and that could be useful instead. But trying to learn to throw one that rides would just screw up everything else they do. They have the velo, spin, and ride on their fourseam fastballs to get it done, but asking them to adjust finger pressure to push around the side of the ball a bit at release is too big and too subtle an ask at the same time. Learning to command it would take a long time if it even worked out, and in the meantime they’d potentially be a complete mess.

What the Tigers like about adding Jansen, on top of his experience and stellar track record of success, is just the fact that this is such a unique look. Like a lot of teams, the Tigers have been trying to diversify their bullpen with different arm angles and pitch types, so that opposing hitters in a series rarely see similar stuff from the pen, no matter who is on the mound. There aren’t many more unique pitchers than Kenley Jansen.

Jansen was good for the Angels last year other than a few rough outings early in the season, and with Will Vest and Kyle Finnegan in house, he doesn’t necessarily have to be the guy in the ninth inning. A.J. Hinch will probably use him to close most nights as long as it’s working. The trick is still playing matchups where applicable, and not riding Jansen too hard either. As long as his cut fastball remains intact, he should be fun to watch and a good addition to the Tigers pen.

Russell “Le Muscle” Martin is one of the greatest Canadian major leaguers of all-time. Breaking into The Show with the Dodgers in 2006, Martin came to the Yankees in December 2010, succeeding franchise icon Jorge Posada behind the plate.

Martin played two solid seasons in the Bronx behind the plate before signing with Pittsburgh, where he embarked on a remarkable resurgence that took him home to Toronto before finally ending back where he started, with the Dodgers.

Russell Nathan Coltrane Martin
Born: February 15, 1983 (East York, ON, Canada)
Yankees Tenure: 2011-2012

Martin was originally drafted out of a Montreal high school as a third baseman by the tragically defunct Montreal Expos in the 35th round of the 2000 MLB Draft. What could have been. He chose instead to go the college route and headed to Chipola College in Florida.

Two years later, he heard his name called again. This time, in the 17th round, the Los Angeles Dodgers selected the young Canuck. Still only 19 years old, Martin spent the next few seasons climbing the Dodgers’ farm system, combining a solid hit tool with excellent plate discipline and outstanding defense. Jay Jaffe describes the young Martin thusly:

“Shifted from third base after his first professional season, he took to the new position with the zeal of a convert. Martin combined outstanding athleticism — a strong arm, extraordinary lateral mobility, and elite pitch framing — with an intense competitive drive, an off-the-charts baseball IQ, and a natural leadership ability.”

Martin debuted in 2006 and finished ninth in National League Rookie of the Year voting, hitting for league average, showing off surprising speed for a backstop (10 stolen bases), and providing his usual excellent glovework. It would become his calling card throughout his long career, as sabermetrics’ gradual evolution in understanding ptch framing made Martin a favorite in the community.

Martin even found himself in position to do a solid for a future Hall of Famer. After the Dodgers wasted eight shutout innings from a 40-year-old Greg Maddux, Martin hit the first walk off home run of his career. In extra innings no less. It was the only run of the game. At least the Dodgers didn’t lose a game when one of history’s GOATs threw a masterpiece for them.

Martin toiled behind the plate for LA through the 2010 season, when the Dodgers inexplicably non-tendered him. It did not take long for the Yankees to swoop in, as over the previous few years, pitch framing evaluation had swept through front office (with José Molina a key figure on the 2009 championship team). Officially, the Yanks signed him to a one-year deal on December 15th. But all of baseball had known for days the Canadian catcher was headed to the Bronx.

Martin’s innate leadership abilities likely also played some part in the Yankees bringing him aboard. Longtime catcher and franchise great Jorge Posada was reaching the end of the road and the acquisition of Martin shunted Jorge over to DH for good (much to the icon’s chagrin, though he bore no ill will toward the well-respected Martin himself).

Martin put together two perfectly cromulent campaigns in pinstripes. In 2011, he posted 5.4 fWAR with 18 homers and a 100 wRC+, making the All-Star Game for the third time in his career (and the first since 2008). It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows, however. A .248 career hitter, Martin cratered at the dish in 2012, hitting a measly .211, albeit with a then-career-high 21 bombs and still drawing some walks. The result was Martin at least being within shouting distance of league average at the dish, and his glovework still led to 4.0 fWAR.

Martin also struggled in the postseason while a Yankee. In three combined playoff series, Martin hit .167 (8-for-48). He did, to give credit where it is due, provide the key blow in Game 1 of the 2012 ALDS against Baltimore.

Through eight frames, the Yanks and O’s were knotted at two. Leading off the ninth, Martin faced Orioles reliever Jim Johnson. Martin ran the count full before taking Johnson yard, depositing the ball in the left field bleachers at Camden Yards. That broke open the floodgates. The Yanks piled on four more runs to take the contest en route to eliminating the Orioles.

You’d be forgiven for thinking Martin’s glory days were rapidly approaching their end. He was heading into his age-30 season in 2013 and catcher isn’t exactly renowned as a position where guys have 20-year careers. Moreover, the Yankee front office was hesitant to extend Martin a contract offer that would have met his demands in terms of length and money, especially since they thought some combination of Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart could match his framing ability.

So instead, Martin left for Pittsburgh, where he put together a brilliant two-season stretch, helping lead the moribund Pirates to the playoffs both years. His homer in the victorious 2013 NL Wild Card Game off a shaken Johnny Cueto likely marks the height of Pirates baseball this century.

Meanwhile, Cervelli got hurt and suspended, and Stewart’s bat made Martin look like Yogi Berra as New York missed the playoffs in 2013; they had to quickly pivot and sign another catcher in Brian McCann the following offseason. (Amusingly, a resurgent Cervelli would follow Martin to Pittsburgh after the latter left the Steel City.)

After 2014, Martin headed north of the border to play for the Blue Jays as a returning national hero on a five-year, $82 million contract for their first two playoffs teams in over two decades, making his fourth and final All-Star appearance in 2015. He remained in Toronto through 2018, before returning via trade to where it all began in Los Angeles for one final season in 2019. Martin hit an NLDS Game 3 homer off the Nationals’ Hunter Strickland in what turned out to be his final career at-bat.

When he retired, Martin ranked first all-time among Canadian-born players in dWAR (16.5), third in bWAR (38.8), fourth in games (1,693), fifth in runs (803), sixth in hits (1,416), doubles (255) and total bases (2,262) and seventh in home runs (191). He also retired in possession of the record for Canadian players in postseason games (58), hits (38) and runs (24). Martin was inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in 2025.

Perhaps my favorite Martin stat: he retired second all-time in “Canadian home runs,” that is to say home runs hit by a Canadian in a regular season or playoff game played in Canada. Martin’s 36 trailed only Larry Walker’s 58 when the former hung up the tools of ignorance. I suspect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has surpassed both by now.

Anyway, happy 43rd birthday to a former Yankee, a Hall of Very Good catcher (at the very least), and one of the greatest Canucks to ever play Major League Baseball.

References

Jaffe, Jay. “JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Russell Martin.” FanGraphs. December 18, 2024.

Matchett, David. “From a Canadian Baseball Researcher’s Notebook.” SABR.

Matthews, Wallace. “It’s official: Martin is a Yankee.” ESPN. December 16, 2010.

Russell Martin. Baseball-Reference.

“Russell Martin.“ Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

Waldstein, David and Tyler Kepner. “Martin Leaves the Yankees for the Pirates.” New York Times. November 29, 2012.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Good morning, folks…

Joc Pederson is motivated after a career-worst 2025 season.

Kumar Rocker is fighting for the fifth starter spot after a rocky 2025.

Rule 5 pick Carter Baumler provides velocity for a bullpen that is lacking in that regard.

Jordan Montgomery is very happy to be back with the Texas Rangers.

David Laurila has his Sunday Notes column up at Fangraphs.

Here's what happened in Mets Land during spring training workouts on Saturday, in case you missed it...

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• Former MetEdwin Diaz responded to Steve Cohen's recent comments, saying the Dodgers did a great job of recruiting him
• Cohen spoke about the "roller coaster" offseason for the Mets, saying he expects this group to be a playoff team
• Left-handed reliever A.J. Minter won't be ready for Opening Day, but the team is encouraged by his bullpen sessions in Port St. Lucie
• As veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel fights for a roster spot, the Mets value the right-hander's experience on the mound
• Second baseman Marcus Semien is happy to rejoin Bo Bichette in what he called a "loaded" Mets lineup
• Right-hander Griffin Canning, who had a solid 2025 season with the Mets before suffering an Achilles injury, has signed with the Padres
• WATCH: Kodai Senga, Devin Williams, and Semien were part of Saturday's workout

The St. Louis Cardinals have arrived in Jupiter and the reports about players being in the best shapes of their lives has begun! The newly renovated and almost finished Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium is hosting the Cardinals and Miami Marlins for the next six weeks as most of us wait for the days to get longer and the last of the snow to finally disappear.

Over these six Sundays before Opening Day, I will look at each of the position groups for the Cardinals and look at their season projections and compare those expectations to the rest of the league. With the Cardinals either projected 66 wins via PECOTA or 77 wins via FanGraphs, that shows how much variance there could be surrounding the team in 2026. I expect the Cardinals to finish somewhere in the middle of those two numbers, where a 74.5 total line would give me the least confidence one way or another. As things stand, I am in on the Cardinals over 69.5 via FanDuel, but that could still be too optimistic with a lot of hope and expectations surrounding the team’s young players.

I am starting this series by looking at the starting pitching, the group that remained healthy all year, and in most organizations, that would usually mean a successful season. Unfortunately, that health meant Cardinals fans had to suffer through 51 starts by Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde before the team threw in the towel on the latter and allowed the former to finish out his tenure with the organization. By measure of fWAR, the 2025 staff finished 20th in baseball and 10th in the National League. The rotation is arguably the most revamped group on the roster as Chaim Bloom challenges the player development team to create high-level pitching talent that the St. Louis organization was always known for, although this version will feature more firepower than previous iterations of the pitching prospect group.

St. Louis Cardinals Rotation: Who’s in, who’s out?

Recently, I pointed out how RosterResource’s projected depth chart has the entire starting nine for the Cardinals as home grown talent. The same cannot be said for the rotation, and that might not be a bad thing at this point in the rebuild process. On this week’s Cardinals on My Time, I had Josh Jacobs from Dealin’ the Cards come on to look at the rotation competition, one that I view as the most wide open in camp. Rather than rehash that discussion here, I want to look at the guys we put into our rotation, compare that to projections, and then see how they stack up with the NL and the Central.

The Locks: Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy

Potential Opening Day starter and face of the pitching rebuild Matthew Liberatore is now at the front of the rotation. When he was acquired from Tampa Bay, there was intrigue about his potential to be an ace, and while Opening Day starter and ace mean two different things, he is looking to merge those two together in his second year as a full-time rotation piece. He will be supported by 28-year-old veteran Dustin May, who we all felt could be a perfect fit for the staff, as another guy looking to build off of another full workload season. Behind those three sits Michael McGreevy as a stabilizing, mid-rotation innings-eater who could still take a step forward to move past those projections. We were begging for him to make the bigs last. year, but we may have just been to caught up in wanting to see something different on the mound at Busch that we could have put unrealistic expectations on what he truly was at that point in his career.

Looking at those three, ZiPS DC projects that McGreevy will have the lowest ERA of the group at a 3.92. By measure of fWAR, McGreevy and Liberatore lead the group with a 1.8 and May comes in right behind with a 1.7 fWAR. The workload of these three especially will be interesting to follow as they all look to prove something from last year. Libby tailed off after the second half, May pitched his most innings in years, and McGreevy will be entering his first full season in the majors. They are all projected to fall between 141 and 159 innings, but if health allows, they should all surpass that total, which the Cardinals would like to see in a season full of questions.

In the National League, that fWAR would put McGreevy and Libby among the top 40 starters in the league, showing that they are more viewed as rotation depth pieces rather than staff leaders. The top 20 pitchers in the NL all have a projected fWAR of 2.5 or greater. In the NL Central, those numbers would put them as the 12th-best pitchers in the division, falling behind four of the five projected Reds’ starters, three of the Brewers’ pitchers even after trading away Freddy Peralta, three Pirates’ starters with Paul Skenes leading the charge, but those two only fall below one Cubs’ pitcher in Matthew Boyd.

As is true every season, injuries could play a defining role in the postseason picture. While the Reds have high-level talent, those pitchers are young or have a checkered injury history. The Pirates have done a good job adding pieces to their lineup, but the Brewers have traded away more than they have gotten back, and behind Boyd, the Cubs’ rotation does not strike me as intimidating. This is not to say the Cardinals can compete in the division, but goes to show that I believe the 66 win projection by PECOTA could be low due to the gray areas around the Central. If the Cardinals can repeat their health success from last year with this year’s group, that could be an exciting move towards the future for the organization. ZiPS DC projects all three starters to go a combined 29-30 this year.

The competition: Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, Richard Fitts, Hunter Dobbins

I think there is going to be little argument for those first three spots, the order may be up for debate, but the names are likely there in most everyone’s depth charts. The fourth and fifth places, though, are pretty much wide open and with the major league-quality depth available, that got me thinking about the six-man rotation I wrote about earlier in the offseason, and that was before they acquired Dobbins. I would still be open to that idea, but the team has not said anything towards leaning that way, so I will look at the rotation as a traditional five-man setup.

Last season, we focused on how poorly Mikolas and Fedde pitched, but Pallante was not much better. He was able to eat 162.2 innings, but did so with a 5.31 ERA and went 1-10 with a 6.64 ERA in the second half of the year. Pallante was a nice stabilizer to the rotation in 2024, but regressed in his first season as a starter after bouncing between long relief, the minors, and starting until 2025. His offspeed stuff was not great last season, which caused his below-average fastball to be touched up at a higher rate, which then forced Pallante to try to nibble around the zone. That unfortunate mix of struggles put him into the competition, rather than a rotation lock for this season, but I think last season was just so bad in the second half, we are bound to see some improvements. Like Josh said on the podcast, a Pallante improvement may not be spectacular still, but he could become valuable to the organization in one way or another if he can become a reliable starting arm. I still have him as a favorite for a rotation spot coming out of Jupiter. ZiPS sees Pallante’s bounce back season ending in an 8-9 season and a 4.30 ERA.

For the last spot, again order irrelevant, I am again sticking with the one the organization is familiar with and seeing if they can make Kyle Leahy become the 2026 version of Matthew Liberatore last year. Leahy’s overall line last season was solid as he settled into that anytime role out of the bullpen, throwing in 62 games, covering 88 innings and putting up a 3.07 ERA and an improved strikeout rate.

I think we see him go from Kyle Everyday-hy to Kyle Every5thday-hy (rolls off the tongue) at least to start the year since Marmol and Bloom have kind of put those expectations on him since he started the last game of the regular season. Leahy has a solid pitch mix, featuring six different offerings, with his offspeed combination being his bread and butter to get a strikeout. Even with his heavy usage all season, Leahy did not experience the same regression that his counterparts did, actually bumping up his peripheral numbers after the break.

In a competitive team, a move to the rotation may not have made much sense because of his effectiveness out of the bullpen, but where the Cardinals are, he could create even more value as a starter if this transition works. Liberatore saw a similar bullpen role in 2024 before being moved to the rotation, and the Cardinals could copy/paste that plan for Leahy moving into the regular season. Interestingly, ZiPS has him penciled into the rotation on RosterResource, but the projection model only has him grabbing 18 starts out of 46 appearances. That would result in a 6-6 record over 135 innings and a 4.03 ERA with some regression in his strikeouts and walks. That regression would make sense as a starter, with less opportunity for digging deep for a big strikeout like he might have to in a jam coming out of the bullpen. That type of progression in 2026 though, could put Leahy in the conversation for a cheaper extension, although he will be turning 29 during this season and is controllable through the 2030 season. Part of the reason I would push for that rotation spot is because of that “advanced” age when compared to the rest of the rotation. If he can prove his value in the rotation, his future outlook could change for the better.

That leaves the major league trade acquisitions of Fitts and Dobbins on the outside looking in. Fitts is probably closer to competing for a 26-man slot than Dobbins, as the latter had ACL surgery last season but said he has progressed well and is throwing aggressively off the mound. Both pitchers are similar to each other when you look at the back of their baseball cards as they both have a traditional starter’s pitch mix, led by a mid-90s fastball, slider, and curveball. They are both a little more pitch-to-contact, with Fitts using a sinker to go off of his other pitches, while Dobbins features a splitter rather than a typical change up. They tend to be around the zone with their offerings and provide positive depth as projectable 26-year-old arms. If all goes to expectations, both could insert themselves into middle rotation arms for the future. ZiPS DC projects both to have similar seasons as well, with each tallying just under 100 innings with five wins and a mid-4 ERA.

It may not be sexy, but it could be an effective rotation, especially in this first year of the rebuild where the offense will have plenty of growing pains of their own. The ability for the starters to go 5-7 innings any given down could be a welcomed boost for the Cardinals as they sort through their arms and see who is the next “dude” or if they are full of “guys”.

What do you think? Who do you see cracking the Opening Day rotation? Is Libby the de facto #1? Is a six-man rotation a possibility? Let me know!

Guys or Dudes?@joshjaco98 joined the pod to talk about the rotation competition and discussed what this iteration of the #STLCards rotation means for the future

Josh looked at Matthew Liberatore and the rest of the staff on the full episode@redbirdrundown2@banter_baseballpic.twitter.com/LMoT2VC1Ru

— Scott Plaza (@MrPlaztastic17) February 13, 2026

SELF PROMO OF THE WEEK

• Random Cardinal of the Week takes a mini pause on the “random” aspect so we can pay respects to Black History Month. This week, Bill Greason was featured as Jim went into the history around the Cardinals and integration.
• Redbird Rundown discussed Spring Training and we put together packing lists for certain players. For example, I chose Thomas Saggese as one of my players and, in order to make an impression this year, he needs to bring TGRI Ooze and the Swiss Army Man movie to Jupiter. See who else we packed for on the full episode, premiering tonight at 6pm! Millennial references were running wild, so this was a fun one!
• Please like, comment, and subscribe/follow! Card/bobblehead/promo giveaways coming soon!

Thanks as always!

The Phillies have a ton of storylines this spring. With the players reporting in full tomorrow, we’re going to hear a lot about which players are ITBSOHL, which ones are working on something new, etc. The storylines are endless with so many new things happening around the team (THERE ARE NEW THINGS I PROMISE YOU).

However, some of these storylines will be aging poorly once the games actually start. They might be hot topics now, over these next few weeks, but afterwards we won’t find anything much interesting about them at all.

Which spring training storyline will age the worst? Is it going to be the one surrounding Zack Wheeler and his health? Will it be the effectiveness of the starting rotation? There are many to choose from, maybe even a few that haven’t been hashed out just either.