Category: Baseball

The 2026 Major League Baseball trade deadline is Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. EST. And for the next two weeks, the Friar Faithful will be inundated with Mason Miller trade rumors. The media experts have the San Diego Padres as definite sellers and maintain the organization will trade Miller to the highest bidder. 

Despite all the speculation, people are seeking the truth about what the Padres will actually do with baseball’s premier closer.

Miller is not your average trade deadline candidate

Miller is not your typical trade deadline candidate, as he is not eligible to become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2026 season. In fact, the closer is under team control for three more seasons. Miller is arbitration-eligible for the 2027, 2028 and 2029 seasons. 

No question, Miller is a bargain with a $4 million salary price tag for this season. But it is his dominance in the ninth inning that is the reason why he has become a hot commodity at the trade deadline for the second consecutive year.

Thus, the Padres have three options available: keep Miller, deal him to the highest bidder, or sign their closer to a long-term contract that buys out his arbitration years.

The latter might make the Friar Faithful increasingly pessimistic with the trade deadline less than 14 days away. But it is the right move. 

Keep baseball’s best closer in America’s Finest City

The Padres have the best closer in baseball, but if they decide to trade him, the organization will not receive equal value in return. A year ago, Miller was acquired in a trade deadline deal with the Athletics. The price tag was steep, as the Friars dealt Leo De Vries, who is considered one of the top minor league prospects. 

Most contending teams rarely like breaking up their existing roster. They may offer a package that includes their organization’s third, fourth, and fifth-best pitching prospects. The return will not equal Miller or the potential value of De Vries, as you must account for giving up an elite five-tool talent the year before. 

Miller is a building block

Instead, sign your star pitcher to a long-term deal and build around him. Young talent is working its way through the minor league system. Yes, the extension will be expensive, but the organization is securing the majors’ best closer in his prime at a fixed cost. 

Good front offices negotiate deals that work for both sides. It is A.J. Preller’s job to find the number that Miller is willing to give up his arbitration years. You may have to be creative, such as deferring money that would lower the contract’s value in the MLB’s luxury tax system.

It is tough to figure out how the Miller dilemma will play out. He will be dealt if Preller can secure a dream package from another team. 

However, keeping Miller long-term is the right move.

Following multiple rainouts on Tuesday, Wednesday was chock-full of important action around the American League. The Yankees, playing a pair against the Pirates, split the twocontests, while the rest of their AL East foes were tied up in important divisional matchups. It was an eventful day, as the Rays continued to beat up on the Jays, while Boston’s huge winning streak continued and then came to an end. Let’s take a look at how everything shook out.

Tampa Bay Rays (59-42) 4, Toronto Blue Jays (46-56) 2

For the third time in as many days, the Rays once again gave the business to Toronto. In the penultimate game of a four-game series north of the border, Tampa Bay cruised to victory thanks to some timely small ball and quality work from starter Griffin Jax.

The Jays struck first on George Springer’s RBI groundout, which was quickly answered by a Victor Mesa Jr. run-scoring knock that tied things up at one in the second inning — the first of multiple big contributions from the Rays’ right fielder. After the early run, Jax settled in with ease, coasting to six strong innings of work, allowing just the one run on three hits, while striking out five.

Despite the strong effort on the mound, the game remained tied until the sixth, when the Rays took the lead on a sac fly from Chandler Simpson, before Mesa chipped in once again with another RBI knock. By the end of the inning, the Rays had taken a 4-1 advantage.

Toronto cut the lead when Alejandro Kirk homered in the seventh, but it wasn’t enough, as they fell once again to the Rays, by a score of 4-2. With their win and the Yankees’ split of a doubleheader, Tampa Bay’s lead in the East stands at 2.5 games.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (52-48) 6, Baltimore Orioles (49-53) 3 (Game 1): After a wash on Tuesday, the Red Sox and O’s were slated for some doubleheader action on Wednesday, much like their rivals. The Sox jumped out quickly against Baltimore starter Dean Kremer, as they plated four runs in the opening inning, with Jarren Duran’s two-run triple putting a cap on the frame. That was ultimately the bulk of their scoring, as Boston secured their 15th (!) straight win in the matinee, tying a franchise record set by the 1946 Red Sox.

Baltimore Orioles (50-53) 5, Boston Red Sox (52-49) 1 (Game 2): Their massive winning streak would come to an end in the second game, however. In a bit of payback, the Orioles this time jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first, when a wild pitch and a pair of big hits had Baltimore up early. Fresh off signing an extension to stick around Baltimore through 2031, starter Kyle Bradish had the good stuff as well, allowing just one run over his six innings of work, helping the O’s cruise to victory and put an end to Boston’s W15.

Cincinnati Reds (47-54) 5, Seattle Mariners (51-52) 3: After leading into the middle innings thanks to hits from Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley, the Mariners surrendered their lead later on in theeventual loss. The big hit of the night came off the bat of Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart, who belted a clutch three-run shot in the seventh to turn the Reds’ deficit into a lead. His 21st of the season sealed the loss for the now sub-.500 Mariners — though they at least remained a half-game back of Texas for first place in the AL West.

Chicago White Sox (54-47) 4, Texas Rangers (51-51) 2: With another win on Wednesday, the White Sox retained their slim lead in the competitive AL Central. This one came thanks in large part to a huge day from Chase Meidroth, who went 4-for-4 with a pair of RBIs on the night. Starter Anthony Kay also did enough to get things done on the mound, allowing a pair of runs over five innings. Chicago keeps their half-game lead with the win, while Texas holds a razor-thin advantage over Seattle.

Minnesota Twins (50-53) 10, Cleveland Guardians (54-49) 6: Despite a good day on the offensive side for the Guardians, they couldn’t keep up with Minnesota’s double-digit outpouring on Wednesday. After trailing in the first two innings, the Twins turned it up a notch with seven runs in the third and fourth innings, with Alex Jackson’s RBI knock giving them the lead, and Brooks Lee’s three-run homer kicking the door in. A trio of insurance runs in the eighth allowed the Twins to capture the 10-6 win, and snag their 50th win on the season.

Team News

D-backs start crucial stretch before Trade Deadline with 15-run outburst
Closer Justin Martinez should be back from Tommy John surgery not long after the Aug. 3 Deadline, while starters Corbin Burnes and Ryne Nelson could be back in September.

On the position player side of things, outfielders Tommy Troy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jordan Lawlar could also all be back in August.

That’s eight players and a lot of depth.

“Doesn’t seem like there’s a huge swath of them that’ll be coming back right at the Deadline,” Hazen said. “So there may be some bridging to get from that period at the Deadline to when some of them come back. I still contend this team could look much different going through August and September when everybody gets back, regardless of what we do at the Deadline.”

https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/james-mccann-nolan-arenado-homer-in-d-backs-win-vs-a-s

Diamondbacks score season-high 15 runs to secure series win over Athletics

“I feel like we needed a win like that,” third baseman Nolan Arenado told Arizona Sports. “I feel like every game we played in lately, it’s been tight and a lot of stressful innings. For us to come out today, day game after a long game yesterday, and put up runs like that against a great arm, it was a great win.” https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/15-runs-secure-series-win-athletics

Ryan Waldschmidt crushes 1st major league home run, and it went a long wayhttps://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/ryan-waldschmidt-crushes-1st-major-league-home-run-and-it-went-a-long-way

D-backs move top prospect, Nogales native Demetrio Crisantes to Triple-Ahttps://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/nogales-prospect-demetrio-crisantes-triple-a

Ryan Waldschmidt's first career homer is a 2-run blast!

He makes it a SEVEN-run inning for the @Dbacks 😳 pic.twitter.com/gYtBlTw4s9

— MLB (@MLB) July 22, 2026

The Diamondbacks hit three home runs 425+ ft in the fifth inning

It’s the third time a team has hit 3 homers 425+ ft in an inning under Statcast, joining:

4/27/19 MIN 8th
5/20/17 OAK 5th pic.twitter.com/cC3vy9xS4A

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 22, 2026

Other Baseball

Salvador Perez ties George Brett’s Royals record with 317th HRhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49426984/salvador-perez-ties-george-brett-royals-record-317th-hr

Orioles end Red Sox’s record-tying 15-game winning streakhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49428964/orioles-end-red-sox-record-tying-15-game-winning-streak

Yankees’ Caballero hit with pitch clock violation in crackdownhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49427759/yankees-caballero-hit-pitch-clock-violation-crackdown

Will The Padres Move Mason Miller?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/will-the-padres-move-mason-miller.html

Angels reportedly fire self-proclaimed ‘Baseball Spy’ after he was caught filming Rockies coaches
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/angels-reportedly-fire-self-proclaimed-baseball-spy-after-he-was-caught-filming-rockies-coaches-184948567.html

Umpires told Jose Caballero that the league office is "done with" his pitch clock antics pic.twitter.com/CDWxhak82H

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) July 22, 2026

longest win streaks under a manager who did not manage the team's opening game that year:

1890 Phillies: 16, Bob Gi. Allen
1884 St. Louis Maroons: 16, Fred Dunlap
2026 Red Sox: 15, Chad Tracy *active
1932 Cubs: 14, Charlie Grimm

h/t @EliasSports

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 22, 2026

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/july-23

This day in baseball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/July_23

Croissants are not French.

You might associate croissants with French lifestyle, but the croissant is actually from Vienna. In the 13th century, it was known as a kipferl, a denser bread made in the distinct crescent shape.

The hair of a reindeer is hollow.

The hair inside their noses are also efficient heat exchangers that warm up the cold air they breathe in. This makes them good insulators.

‘Deja reve’ is the term used for an experienced previously encountered in a dream.

Deja reve translates to ‘already dreamt’. It suggests that this phenomenon can lead us to better understand why dreams occur by physiologically observing the brain during this occurrence. 

Good morning A’s fans.

The squad couldn’t get out of Arizona with a win, getting swept by the Diamondbacks to drop the record to a tough 43-59. That’s a disappointing outcome after their strong start to the season, and the Green & Gold will be at home watching October baseball on their couches for the sixth consecutive season.

There’s still two-plus months of baseball left to go though, and the attention should be focused on how to be more prepared for next season, the final year before the team makes its move to Las Vegas. They want to hit the ground running when they enter their new digs and that means making some noise next year. If they’re going to do that they’ll need to address some holes and questions on the roster. And one of the biggest questions they have is: what is going on at third base?

Over the next couple of months the team needs to try out the internal options at the hot corner. Former first rounder Max Muncy was given first crack at it this season but failed to deliver on his lofty draft status. He’s now back with the big league squad and may get some more starts at third to hopefully show some improvement, and it’s not impossible he seizes the job over the final few weeks. But they’ve also started toying with him in the outfield so we know how the club feels about his glove on the infield right now.

Zack Gelof has made some appearances there this year but with seven errors at a new position for him he isn’t the long-term option there. Plus he’s more valuable as a versatile piece that Mark Kotsay can move around.

Then there’s the young guys in Tommy White and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer. The rookies have just made his big league debuts and both have hit well in their small sample. There was never much doubt about White’s bat and he’s shown that so far having gone 7-for-16 through his first four games. Small sample, yes.

The question is about his glove at third base. If White can prove to be passable at third then the club can cross off two positions to address this offseason since they could then plug Kuroda-Grauer at the keystone. On the other hand if the glove isn’t up to par then that makes juggling all the young position players harder moving forward since White’s only other positions (first base, DH) are blocked next year (Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker(?)). And we haven’t even welcomed star prospect Leo De Vries into the fold yet.

There’s lots of things that’ll happen over the next couple months that determine how next year unfolds. If the A’s want next year to be a success they had better use the short time left this season to try to get as many answers as possible, from third base to the outfield to the entire pitching staff.

No A’s baseball today. Have a great one guys.

A’s Coverage:

• A’s drop series finale in a big way, 15-5 to the Diamondbacks
• A’s roster moves: Ginn to IL, Barnett recalled
• A’s fall in extra innings 6-5 to Arizona
• Hot Topic: Who Is The “Real Langeliers”?
• A’s Beat Diamondbacks 5-2
• A’s place rookie Joshua Kuroda-Grauer on injured list with ruptured testicle
• Passan: A’s ‘have zero desire’ to trade Shea Langeliers
• Another ‘step in the right direction’ for Lopez in hunt to regain rookie form
• Blogfather Saves The Day With Pearls Of Most Excellent Advice
• Thinking out loud: Mic’d up Cease, Langeliers work through 3-K 1st in ASG
• What will the Athletics do leading up to Trade Deadline after cold streak?
• A’s Add Next Wave of Prospects in 2026 Draft
• Athletics Get Hitting Help by Claiming Hot Bat off Waivers
• Former A’s top draft pick Muncy learning outfield with Aviators
• Langeliers’ 5-year journey from top prospect to All-Star starter
• Injuries Providing Cover For Some Inconvenient Truths
• Breaking Down the A’s Alarming Trends Heading into the Break
• Jamie Arnold can’t wait for the A’s future. Triple-A Vegas is another story.

MLB News and Interest:

• 15 straight! Red Sox tie 1946 squad’s franchise-record winning streak
• Royals trade for reliever Pearson, former top prospect, from Houston
• Padres Discussing Wandy Peralta In Trade Talks
• Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. placed on IL for first time in career
• Jose Ramírez back for Guardians, batting second in return to lineup
• Yankees activate Fried early for doubleheader vs. Pirates
• Garrett Crochet Targeting Return From IL By Playoffs
• Nationals Reportedly Considering Keeping Foster Griffin
• Trade rumors: Robert Jr., Rays, Giants bats, Marlins
• Rockies Getting Interest In Various Players
• Salvador Perez ties George Brett’s Royals record with 317th HR
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

A quick rising prospect who could make his big league debut this year?

A’s prospect Ryan Magdic is being promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas, per source. This will be his third stop this season as he continues performing well, combining for a 3.09 ERA in 21 games between High-A and Double-A with 62 strikeouts and nine walks in 58 1/3 innings.

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) July 22, 2026

Great show of support for prospect Ryan Lasko, who suffered a life-changing injury a couple weeks ago:

A’s are wearing T-shirts in support of Ryan Lasko. All A’s Minor League affiliates will be wearing them today. pic.twitter.com/lxf33wPl7k

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) July 22, 2026

And a great update!

A’s manager Mark Kotsay wanted to share this photo today of Ryan Lasko, who is in good spirits with his family in New Jersey. pic.twitter.com/3KKOuhK6Vb

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) July 22, 2026

Doesn’t stop with the A’s:

For Ryan. 🧡#22Strongpic.twitter.com/ql2tiCK7Hi

— Las Vegas Aviators (@AviatorsLV) July 22, 2026

Tuesday’s top minor league player:

A’s Prospect of the Day is 3B Michael Brooks who went 3 for 4 with a HR, a double & a walk to help @stocktonports win on Tuesday…https://t.co/g0CAtruStIpic.twitter.com/BiRikfueVe

— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) July 22, 2026

Earlier this week, Camden Chat colleague Paul Folkemer examined how the prospects on our preseason top 20 prospects ranking have been performing this season. That group of players are a mix of exciting, interesting, and disappointing. There are other players in the Orioles system right now who didn’t crack that list before the season who look like they might be heading higher up the next incarnation of an O’s prospect list, if they don’t get traded sooner. Here are ten more prospects (and one non-prospect) worth some attention for what they’ve done so far this season:

Creed Willems – C/1B

A slow-developing prospect since the Orioles gave him a $1 million overslot bonus five years ago, Willems has finally made it to Triple-A for his age 23 season and he’s been getting some decent results, batting .259/.358/.431 in 70 games. This includes 13 homers, though at the same time he’s only hit two doubles. That’s peculiar.

Willems just missed about three weeks with a hamstring injury, returning earlier this week. If you’d rather see him instead of Sam Huff or Chadwick Tromp, you’re not the only one. They probably want to make sure that Willems is recovered from the hamstring before considering bringing him up into this situation. I suspect they don’t want to bring him up for a short-term absence, so we won’t see Willems this year unless either Adley Rutschman or Samuel Basallo are going to miss extended time.

Yaqui Rivera – RHP

You’ve got to be pretty good as a reliever to be worth mentioning as a prospect. Rivera, who’s only in his age 22 season, is hitting that level, holding batters to a .179 average between Chesapeake and Norfolk this season. Since joining the Tides, he’s struck out 39 batters in 32 innings. I’ve got a concerned eye on his 5.3 BB/9. It’s working out for him for now.

Bonus: Andrew Magno – LHP

He’s 28 and he’s a journeyman reliever, so he doesn’t count as a prospect in any sense, but this Tides lefty has a 0.98 ERA in 32 games. The idea of him may feel better than your least favorite member of the current Orioles bullpen. It does for me.

Ethan Anderson – C/1B

The 2024 Orioles draft class seemed like it was cursed a year ago. Its top three picks, Vance Honeycutt, Griff O’Ferrall, and Anderson, all largely flopped at High-A. The O’s promoted O’Ferrall and Anderson to Double-A this year anyway and Anderson’s looked like he’s fighting away that curse. 22 years old and still about two years younger than the average competition at the level, Anderson has batted .270/.369/.520 in 68 games.

That’s really good and mighty interesting from the switch hitter, though there’s an extreme home/road split going on here. Anderson has posted a 1.174 OPS at home and only .562 on the road. One way he hasn’t avoided the curse is that he’s on the injured list right now as a result of an ankle injury and it’s unclear when he’ll be back in action to continue building his stock.

Brandon Butterworth – IF/OF

One of the sextet of minor leaguers the Orioles received in last July’s Padres deal. Butterworth has only played in 35 games with the Baysox, though he’s back in action now. Solid results over those 35 games: .264/.377/.481. Good walk rate, good power, good speed. This is his age 23 season, so these numbers are less interesting than Anderson’s at the same level, but he’s got some things going for him and if they’re still going like this by season’s end, he’ll be a guy worth following more next season. No known connection to the syrup.

Micah Ashman – LHP

Acquired from the Tigers for Charlie Morton last year, this 23-year-old lefty reliever has been trashing Double-A over the 2026 season: 1.83 ERA in 23 games, 14.7 K/9 Like Anderson above, some odd stuff going on in the splits, including that Ashman has been much worse facing lefty batters than righties so far this season (.776 OPS allowed to lefties, .574 to righties). He’s also got a big home/away split except in the opposite direction of Anderson: .549 OPS at home, .807 OPS away.

Victor Figueroa – 1B/DH

Another of the players from the depths of that Padres trade. Figueroa is 22 and playing for High-A Frederick. He leads all Orioles minor leaguers with 22 home runs, which makes him a fun big guy to root for to beat the odds. There are some long odds to beat; he’s got a 32% strikeout rate for the season. A 1B/DH is going to have to hit and that kind of swing and miss will be tough to keep the homers going at higher levels of the minors.

RJ Austin – IF/OF

Third round pick last year, Austin has also missed some time with an injury this year, only 50 games of action. It’s gone well when he’s played, and for the season he’s working on a .271/.374/.422 line, with 27 stolen bases in 31 attempts. That’s basically “What would it look like if Enrique Bradfield had just a little bit of power?” – which is, like all of these guys, interesting! I don’t know how Austin compares defensively, and High-A is farther off from the majors.

Caden Hunter – LHP

The sixth round pick by the Orioles last year was assigned to Low-A to begin the season, where he was old for the level but nonetheless wrecking that competition. This has continued after a promotion to Frederick: 1.83 ERA, 54 strikeouts in 39.1 IP for the Keys. Walk rate is a little high (4.5 BB/9 between both levels) so there’s stuff to work on. It’s going well against these lower-level hitters, anyway: .513 OPS allowed across 250 PA. Need to see what happens in the high minors.

Twine Palmer – RHP

Arrived from the Astros for Ramón Urías last July, Palmer had a horrendous debut with the organization with Delmarva after that deal. It’s gone better for him at Frederick. This is just his age 21 season and he’s holding batters to a .206/.314/.286 line overall. Walk rate is higher than you want so there’s stuff to work on. There’s also good stuff going on, like only three homers allowed to 291 batters. It’s made for a 3.49 ERA overall.

Jaiden Lo Re – IF

Fifth round pick from an Arizona high school last year only took 20 games in the rookie Florida Complex League to convince the Orioles to send him up to a full-season affiliate, where he’s continued to look interesting. Across 30 games for Delmarva, he’s batted .340/.454/.453. Intriguing stuff for someone who’s just 19. The homer power isn’t there yet, only one so far in 131 PA. They’re playing him all over the infield. If he can sustain this next season, he’ll be a real top notch prospect.

**

Can the Orioles turn any of these guys, one way or another, into useful major leaguers? That will say a lot about the team’s chances of success next year and beyond.

This year has been a very busy time for rookies signing extensions. Some of the biggest prospects have signed shortly after, or even before, being called up to the majors. It might be time for Kansas City to join the crowd, get Jac Caglianone signed up, and snag a couple of extra years of control.

First, let’s look at what the rookies have been signing for to get a feel for how the market is valuing top prospects. I am doing a mix of pure rookies and a few guys who signed after getting some big-league time, so hopefully we can triangulate a little bit.

Things to keep in mind while we go through a bunch of names and numbers: Jac is 23, and his prospect ranking from FanGraphs going into 2025 was 47th. It climbed as high as 18th before he lost prospect status. Those rankings, along with your track record as it develops, are the biggest factors that shape a contract’s size and length. Then it is just a matter of finding a balance of risk and reward for both the team and the player that gives both sides what they want. I will start with the best rookies, but the best comp is in the middle of the write-up.

Kevin McGonigle

McGonigle will turn 22 in mid-August, so he signed his extension at the very beginning of his age-21 season. The deal was announced by the Tigers on April 15, when he had amassed career totals of just 18 games played and one home run. He was ranked similarly to Cags at the beginning of 2025—54th per FanGraphs—but the 2026 list had him at fifth, so he had climbed into one of the truly elite prospect spots.

Kevin has mostly played third base this year, with a sprinkling of shortstop as well. He is listed at 5’9″ and just 187 pounds. That does not sound like a third baseman, but he has some pop despite being on the smaller side. His deal was for eight years and $150 million, with escalators that could push it to $160 million.

There are no options on the deal, so it runs straight from 2027 through 2034, which means this year was not part of the extension. That gets the Tigers three years of free agency, while McGonigle will be going into his age-30 season when he gets to test the open market. So far, he has been absolutely fantastic for Detroit, posting 4.1 fWAR this season.

Konnor Griffin

Griffin was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball coming into 2026. He was drafted ninth overall in 2024 out of high school, and he had just turned 20 when he signed this extension. This is an unusual player—you just do not see many people at the MLB level before they turn 20. When it does happen, they tend to be the cream of the crop. Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Ken Griffey Jr. come to mind.

Despite his relative youth, Konnor has held his own as a rookie. He has been almost exactly league average with the bat and just a touch below average defensively at shortstop. He has also been hurt a couple of times and was recently moved to the 60-day IL. His future looks bright, but 2026 is not going to be a banner rookie campaign for the phenom.

His deal was for nine years and $140 million, with $10 million in incentives similar to McGonigle’s. He will still hit free agency at 29 because he is so young. The last year of the deal is 2034, the same as McGonigle’s, because 2026 is included. Both of these deals were very similar and straightforward, especially compared with more complex extensions like Bobby Witt Jr.’s or Julio Rodríguez’s.

Colt Emerson

Since JJ Wetherholt’s deal is similar to the first two and just smaller, I am going to move on to someone from a different stratum of prospect world. This is the closest comparable for Caglianone from a prospect ranking status perspective. Colt Emerson was 41st going into 2025 and started this year at 11th, both just a bit ahead of where Jac ranked at the same points. The big differences are that Emerson is younger and had not debuted with the Mariners when he signed this extension.

He has struggled a bit since being called up in the middle of May. He had a phenomenal first couple of weeks, an okay June, and has been in a terrible slump in July, posting a wRC+ of -15. It is hard to get into the negatives for that stat, but when you are hitting .132 with no extra-base hits, it can be done. Defensively, he has been pretty good, though not great.

He just turned 21 on Monday, so he is doing pretty well thus far, assuming he can get out of the slump.

His deal was announced at the end of March by Seattle with a guaranteed $95 million. It is, again, eight years through 2034, but it has more escalators that could add another $35 million or more to the total. It is similar to the first two deals but trimmed down and more incentive-oriented since he is not quite as much of a sure thing as the others. He will also hit free agency at 30.

This is the prevailing theme of these deals: get a guaranteed bag while making sure you hit free agency around or before your 30th birthday. Bobby’s opt-out is after his age-30 season too. This is probably the closest talent comp, with the age difference complicating how Caglianone might want to structure such a deal.

Cooper Pratt

Pratt is nearly 22, so he is ancient compared to his peers so far in this article. He also was not a consensus Top 100 prospect, instead falling more into the bottom-end or honorable-mention tier. Like several others on this list, he signed before making his debut and has since graduated to Milwaukee as their starting shortstop.

Cooper gets on base, has very limited power, and plays good defense. If he had more power, he would be grouped with the other guys. Since he does not, he received a guarantee of $47.5 million through 2033, and the team then has two options at $15 million each for 2034 and 2035.

He got less money and may not reach free agency as soon if things go well. I include him because of Jac’s very rough start, which took some of the shine off and might make a deal structure like this more palatable, with less guaranteed money and more incentives. It will cost more than this to get Caglianone to sign, especially since his draft bonus was $7.5 million versus Pratt’s $1.35 million.

I want to talk about some guys who are not rookies before we move on to Jac, though.

Tyler Soderstrom

I think we need to discuss Soderstrom, who had a similar pedigree in some ways, though that was shaped by being drafted out of high school rather than college. It then took Tyler a couple of runs at the big leagues before he put it all together last season, posting 3.4 fWAR and a 125 wRC+ over a full 2025 campaign.

He then signed a seven-year extension this January at age 24, which would be very similar to what Jac would be doing if he signed this coming offseason. He is even a first baseman who moved to the outfield. This is a very strong comparison for Jac.

His deal is for seven years and guarantees $86 million. There is a club option for an eighth year that would push that number to $111 million, and there are some escalators that could push it even higher. That option year would be for 2033, Tyler’s age-31 season, and the option is worth $27 million with a $2 million buyout.

To go past age 30, teams have to start paying a bigger premium to buy those years. He would have been out of arbitration before 2031, and Caglianone will not be a free agent until 2032. His deal could look something like this, just shifted slightly because of that one-year difference.

The Athletics signed a very similar deal with Jacob Wilson, though for a smaller dollar amount, just a few weeks after the Soderstrom deal.

Pete Crow-Armstrong

PCA is another similarly aged outfielder with a longer and bumpier path in the big leagues so far. This deal was signed before he became the best player in baseball this year, as he currently leads MLB in both fWAR and bWAR. He kind of did that last year too, before falling off a cliff in the second half.

His value comes much more from defense than Cags’, but I still thought it was worth taking a look at.

PCA signed the deal on his 24th birthday, and it did not affect his salary this season, his final pre-arbitration year. Starting next year, he will make $110 million over six years. Like most of these deals, the Cubs are buying two years of free agency, and then it is just a matter of whether there are options beyond that. This one has no options, and it shows how those years become much more expensive to buy out as you get closer to free agency, since he will make $30 million per year.

Would the Royals extend Jac midseason? I do not know, but the way the season is going, they could use a nice distraction. More importantly, is Cags an extension guy, or is he going to “bet on himself” and try to reach free agency as early as possible?

The looming CBA negotiations play into this, with a possible salary cap and other changes that might shift the economic landscape of the game. Again, he already got $7.5 million to sign with the team originally, which is significantly more than most of us will make in our lifetimes. There are a lot of moving parts to these deals.

Since he will be a free agent in 2032 at age 28, going into his age-29 season, it is reasonable to say he might be interested in getting a guaranteed $80-plus million in exchange for giving up a year or two of free agency, but two years is probably the maximum. Also, large first basemen can struggle to get big deals as they age. It took Pete Alonso a couple of trips through free agency to get the deal he wanted, and it was less than he had originally floated.

I am assuming a 29-year-old Jac Caglianone will not be in the outfield, since he already has a 15th-percentile range rating there. The arm does make up for the range a bit.

If I were Jac’s representatives and the Royals wanted two years of free agency, the second one would need to be a player option or a very expensive team option. That being said, the team watched him struggle mightily last season, and though he has performed well in 2026, it has been a bit uneven. April was okay, May was bad, June was great, and now July is back to being bad again.

Do you want to guarantee that much money to a player with known chase issues who is probably going to be a bit streaky? Salvador Perez is—and always has been—that guy, and it has worked out just fine. I think the structure would end up looking something like this.

2027: $1 million salary and a $5 million signing bonus

2028: $1 million

2029: $9 million

2030: $12 million

2031: $18 million

2032: $22 million

2033: $32 million team option with a $2 million buyout

That’s a guarantee of $70 million, which is about where I would be comfortable if I were the Royals. He does not get the full Soderstrom amount until he shows more consistency. If the team picks up the option, he gets to $100 million, so the deal still carries nine-figure money.

He looks like he will be worth this, and there is still a lot of upside for the team. I do wonder whether that 40-plus-homer potential makes him wait and avoid signing anything until he shows that elite power over a full season. It all depends on his risk tolerance because $70 million guaranteed is a ridiculous amount of money.

The Royals could also push some of the guaranteed money down a bit more and build in $40 million or $50 million in incentives if Jac would prefer that structure. It is something I assume the team will explore. The math just changes depending on how sure either they or Jac want to be before getting a deal done.

By this time next year, he could be anywhere from not extendable to needing $150-plus million guaranteed, so these negotiations are always a matter of timing.

In an annual tradition, Quincy will now analyze why the Guardians should trade for Taylor Ward, something I have done for five years running.

You can view our larger trade deadline piece here as we discuss a wider pool of options the Guardians may consider. To make my position clear, I expect the Guardians to make smaller moves, like trading Bo Naylor and getting a castoff/undervalued reliever. But, in the interest of exploring potential larger moves, we are doing a series looking at some of those bigger names. So far, we have discussed Spencer Steer , Luis Arraez and Shea Langeliers.

Ward has a 120 wRC+ for a Baltimore Orioles team currently three games under .500. Given that Ward is a free agent following the season, one would suspect that if the Orioles don’t make another sustained run in the next week, they’ll be willing to trade Ward.

Is Ward’s current 17% walk-rate sustainable? Probably not. But chances are also good he’ll find his way back to a slugging rate closer to his career .429 vs. his current .362. His bat speed IS down 1 mph and his average exit velo is down about the same amount. However, he’s still 7.4 runs above average against fastballs. There is risk, of course, but I can see betting that Ward will find his way to a more usual power level given that his other plate discipline skills have shown up.

Ward is an average left fielder who would push Kwan to center. Like any right-handed hitter, his home run totals would be affected as his 120 career homers would be 105 with Progressive Field as his home park. It isn’t as pronounced as it could be because Ward is not simply a pulled fly-ball launcher and can use all fields.

Again, I would not touch Angel Genao, Ralphy Velazquez, Braylon Doughty or any major league pieces for Ward. Ward’s career 132 wRC+ against LHP would be very helpful, but the risk that he may be at the beginning of a decline may prevent teams like Cleveland for paying for his services. But, hey, I have long loved Ward so I would happily assume he will win us a World Series should they acquire him

A resulting lineup might look like:

1. Kwan CF
2. Ward LF
3. Jose 3B
4. DeLauter RF
5. Bazzana 2B
6. Hopkins DH
7. Manzardo 1B
8. Rocchio SS
9. Bailey C

What do you think? Let me know in the comments below!

Good morning everyone!

The Mariners fell to the Reds in heartbreaking fashion yesterday, with a 5-3 score putting them below .500 more than 100 games into the season. The Mariners — and fans — take the day off today before heading to Texas for a critical four-game series.

Let’s check in on everything happening around baseball.

In Mariners news…

• Ginny Searle at Baseball Prospectus wonders how on earth anyone is going to win the American League West. ($)
• The Mariners need bullpen help. Kate Preusser offered a pair of in-house solutions for the club if they fail to bolster the ‘pen at the deadline.
• Adam Jude at The Seattle Times spoke to mega-agent Scott Boras for his thoughts on his clients Kade Anderson and Ace Reese.
• John Trupin joined the Washington Sports Wrap to discuss the M’s upcoming series in Texas.

Around the league…

• Royals star shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. has hit the injured list with lower back tightness.
• The Orioles placed young catcher Samuel Basallo on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation.
• Guardians third baseman José Ramírez is back from the injured list after being shelved for the last five weeks with a left hand injury.
• The Royals made a minor swap with the Astros, acquiring right-hander Nate Pearson for minor league righty Max Martin.
• Red Sox lefty ace Garrett Crochet is hoping to be back from the injured list in time for the postseason. As if they need the help after tying a franchise record with their 15th consecutive win.
• Although 2026 has seen more bunts than recent seasons, the Tigers aren’t with the program. Davy Andrews at Fangraphs dug into the numbers behind Detroit’s collective aversion to bunting.
• The Tigers have muddled their deadline picture with a strong couple of weeks. Ryan Blake’s latest piece at Fangraphs evaluates what the team may do next.
• Michael Clair continued his international beat by taking us behind the scenes to the wild and wonderful world of Haarlem Honkbalweek.
• In Hollywood baseball news, A-lister Glen Powell has been cast as Lou Gehrig in an untitled upcoming movie coming from Universal, with Richard Linklater set to direct.
• In an effort to help curb expensive equipment costs for youth sports leagues, the Oakland Parks, Recreation and Youth Development department debuted a new program that allows kids to borrow equipment via the Park Play Lending Library.
• Jeff Passan at ESPN did some important investigative journalism on the limits of AI capacity.

It’s been a disaster in Queens. The Mets are no longer the second-worst team in baseball, now merely tied with the Royals for the fourth-worst record. There’s some kind of a reset coming, with the team itself leaking that outside of Juan Soto and a couple young building blocks, anyone who can be moved is subject to being moved. Enter Bo Bichette.

Still just 28, Bichette inked a three-year, $126 million contract in the offseason, one that came with a pair of opt-outs after this year and next. It has not yet worked out for the Mets, with their shortstop/third baseman managing just a 90 wRC+ and a break-even defensive performance. Opt-outs or no, his contract stands out as one of the deals that the club would love to get off the books, and that makes him available at somewhat of a discount.

The question that needs to be answered, given the Yankees have a need for more thump at third base, is whether or not we can expect Bichette to hit better than he has to this point.

Off the top, FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections thinks so, pegging him for a 110 wRC+ the rest of the season. If that bears out, that’s 26 points better than Ryan McMahon is managing on the season, and 28 points better than the Yankees have seen from the proverbial hot corner in 2026. Bichette’s underperforming all of his major expected stats — xBA by 27 points, xSLG by 39 points, and xwOBA by 32. All else equal, Bo should start hitting better.

And truth be told, he has been hitting better than his absolutely putrid first two months. There’s something to be encouraged about with Bo.

The problem is, baseball can stay irrational longer than you can stay in playoff contention. Bichette should hit better the rest of the way. I don’t know if the transition to a new team was part of the problem he had in the season’s first eight weeks, but if it is, you run the risk of that happening again. Bichette’s injury troubles over the last three seasons also introduce some significant downside risk on the contract.

There’s a lot of incentive for Bo to overperform in the stretch run of the year, so he can opt out and net himself another $100 millionish guaranteed. However, that injury concern plus the uncertainty of the CBA negotiations could force his hand and have him decide on a little more stability, in which case the Yankees need to work out a significant amount of salary relief in any deal.

A significant amount of salary relief increases the prospect cost going back to Queens, and this is where it just gets too complicated with Bichette. Maybe he comes to the Bronx, hits to a .360 wOBA like he did a year ago, and gives the Yankees real production at third. There’s just not enough certainty in that happening, weighed against the downsides of injury and the contract structure. Prospect capital is best spent elsewhere than bailing out Steve Cohen’s backup backup signing.

With all four affiliates on the road, three wins represent quite the collective effort.

Player of the day

Stealing home plate in a double steal is quite the achievement. Stealing it when you only have two SB on the season is all the more impressive. This was just one of the accomplishments from Logan Wagner to lead the way in a 4-2 win for the Loons over the Lugnuts.

Wagner is now up to 41 BBI in 2026 as the only Loons player to score and drive in at least one run in this game, finishing it 2 for 4 with a walk. Wagner’s .901 OPS is the best by any hitter who started the game yesterday on either side.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

When all of your production boils down to a single plate appearance in a sac fly from your ninth hitter, things aren’t headed in a promising direction, with the Comets losing 7-1, hitless in 10 at-bats with runners in scoring position. It was Miller’s 51st RBI on the season in a game in which no Comet recorded multiple hits.

Christian Romero, who came into this game with an 8-2 record, suffered his third loss, allowing four earned runs in just as many innings. Getting in on the action at the team’s earliest convenience, Edwin Díaz earned two outs on 19 pitches, removed before completing a full inning with a run allowed and a closely monitored pitch count.

Double-A Tulsa

A rally in the first that led to four runs, starting off with a Mike Sirota RBI single—one of his three hits in the game—was enough for the Drillers to beat the Ytabelers 5-3.

Mike Sirota singles to send Kendall George home and the Drillers are on the board‼️ pic.twitter.com/r52yrNMEqK

— Tulsa Drillers (@TulsaDrillers) July 22, 2026

Even though they only scored one run in the following eight innings, the top three in the order, with Kendall George, Josue De Paula, and the aforementioned Sirota, all recorded multiple hits.

While the Drillers were able to put the ball in play consistently, only striking out twice, their pitching staff had a far easier time securing strikeouts. Patrick Copen and Christian Suarez, the latter of whom earned the win with three scoreless innings, led a 13-K effort.

High-A Great Lakes

Isaac Ayon’s quality start, tossing 6.2 innings of two-run ball, bought enough time for the Loons offense to deliver with two runs in the seventh, beating the Lugnuts 4-2 on the road. Dilan Figueredo finished the game off with a save, completing 2.1 scoreless innings—it was Figueredo’s fifth save on the season.

Will Wagner hit the game’s only home run and was responsible for half of the Loons’ four RBI. Working together with Emil Morales who was on first, Wagner stole home plate to score the Loons’ third run of the game.

Single-A Ontario

Leaving most of their scoring until the late innings, the Tower Buzzers managed to come from behind on the road and beat the Giants 6-5. Making it happen with the bat and on the basepaths, leadoff hitter Jaron Elkins scored a couple of runs in a 2-for-4 performance with multiple stolen bases, making it 32 on the year, only caught six times.

Leading 6-4 in the ninth, the Tower Buzzers had a major scare with the Giants loading the bases with no outs. It took a timely double play induced by Jose Vasquez and one more out secured by Jecsua LIborius to strand the tying run at third base.

Transactions

The Tulsa Drillers activated shortstop Sam Mongelli and placed Kyle Nevin on the injured list. Edwin Díaz is now with the Comets, progressing on his rehab assignment. The Comets also activated righty Ryder Ryan.

Wednesday’s scores

• Sacramento 7, Oklahoma City 1
• Arkansas 3, Tulsa 5
• Lansing 2, Great Lakes 4
• San Jose 5, Ontario 6

Thursday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Tyler Gough) at Lansing (Jorge Marcheco)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Payton Martin) at Arkansas (Nico Tellache)
• 6:30 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) at San Jose (TBD)
• 6:45 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (TBD) at Sacramento (Cesar Perdomo)

Morning, all!

Corey Seager is expected to begin a rehab assignment next week, which would mean he would return to the lineup against Houston July 31.

Rookie Cam Cauley was one of the few bright spots in last night’s loss to the White Sox.

As has often been the case this season, Texas failed to capitalize on opportunities to put runs on the board.

It seems likely that the Rangers will need to try to find a catcher before the trade deadline, seeing as how both of their catchers are on the IL with elbow issues.