Category: Baseball

When the Yankees re-signed Paul Blackburn to a one-year deal back in December, I actually liked the move. A veteran pitcher who had spent his entire career as a (rather lackluster) starter, he was, at a minimum, important early-season depth for a team that knew heading into the winter that it would have three starting pitchers — Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt — open the year on the injured list. And while the rotation depth was fortunately not tested any further in spring training, having a pair of veteran arms in Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough was the type of Plan B that big-market teams with larger payrolls should always have.

This wasn’t why I was intrigued, however. Three years ago, in September 2023, the Yankees claimed journeyman starter Luke Weaver off waivers. They liked what they saw, re-signed him to a one-year deal with a team option for 2025, and although they had him prepare as a starter in spring training, they had him ticketed for a spot in the bullpen from pretty much day one. You know the rest — he became a dominant bullpen arm that locked down the closer’s role in the Yankees’ 2024 AL pennant run, followed that up with an up-and-down 2025, and signed a two-year deal with the Mets in free agency this past winter. To me, Blackburn seemed like a perfect candidate to try this again.

Fast forward to June, and it seems like this is the Yankees’ goal. Unlike Yarbrough, who primarily — although not exclusively, as we saw on Monday night — pitches when the team needs multiple innings (particularly in garbage time), Blackburn has been increasingly used in more and more…I wouldn’t say high leverage roles, but middle innings in games that the Yankees neither have a large lead nor have put up the white flag. And for his part, he hasn’t been half bad in that role: since the start of May, he has allowed just five runs, three of which came back on May 13th in Baltimore.

However, is this performance sustainable, or is Blackburn’s stretch of strong performances yet more evidence for the volatility of relief pitchers? The underlying data is, well, rather contradictory.

Blackburn has done a very good job at both avoiding hard contact and generating groundballs — in fact, his groundball percentage ranks 14th out of the 183 relievers with at least 20 innings so far this season, and his hard hit percentage 64th. At the same time, though, he struggles to get batters to chase at pitches out of the zone or whiff at pitches in the zone, a combo that makes him one of the worst strikeout pitchers in the game. While Tim Hill (69.8 GB%, 11.8 K%), Yennier Cano (61.7 GB%, 19.8 K%), and Tyler Rogers (68.9 GB%, 15.1 K%) prove that you can still be a reliable reliever — nay, even a dominant one — while pitching more to contact, it does leave less room for error.

Looking deeper into the Statcast data, Blackburn has thrown seven different types of pitches this year, a reflection of his background as a starter: a sinker, a cutter, a changeup, a curveball, a sweeper, a four-seamer, and a slider. Of these, he tends to lean on his sinker and his cutter against righties, mixing in his sweeper against righties. Against lefties, he has used a wider repertoire, leaning on his cutter, changeup, and curveball and mixing in the sinker. He’s only thrown eight fastballs and four sliders, and given the context, I’m pretty sure the sliders were simply sweepers that didn’t register correctly on Statcast.

Not surprisingly, given the larger number of right-handed hitters compared to lefties, Blackburn has combined to throw his sinker and cutter a whopping 65.4 percent of the time. Unfortunately, these are also the pitches that hitters have done the most damage on: batters are hitting .324 against the sinker and .357 against the cutter, and the xBA for each shows relatively little regression should be expected, at least in terms of batted ball data (.338 and .275, respectively). The changeup, cutter, and sweeper, on the other hand, have been very effective in their smaller sample sizes, responsible for 11 of his 20 strikeouts and just four of his 27 hits.

So where do we stand on our original question? In truth, the question is still up in the air. Should Blackburn be able to generate more soft grounders with the sinker, he may be able to continue this hot stretch and become a solid middle reliever for the team as we head into the summer months. But unless he can find a way to generate some swing-and-miss, however, it seems unlikely that he can pull a Weaver and turn himself into what the Yankees are looking for, another true bullpen ace.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Chicago Cubs are looking to avoid being swept at Coors Field by the Colorado Rockies in their series finale Thursday, June 11.

My top Cubs vs. Rockies predictions and MLB picks are calling for the Chicago bats to wake up just in time to leave Colorado with an afternoon win.

Who will win Cubs vs Rockies today: Cubs moneyline (-142)

The Chicago Cubs have the third-lowest BABIP in baseball despite ranking 10th in hard-hit rate and 14th in squared up contact rate during their 7-22 slide, so statistical correction is coming, and I’m particularly expecting an increase to their 3.2 runs per game during the skid.

Plus, even with the dip in production at the dish, the Cubs are still tied for eighth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. 

This should prove to be a favorable matchup, too. Colorado Rockies righty Ryan Feltner checks in with 5.69 xERA alongside a target-worthy 18.5% blast contact rate. 

The Cubs moneyline is in play down to -150.

COVERS INTEL: The Chicago Cubs rank 27th in clutch batting win probability (-0.98) during their highlighted slump after posting a sixth-ranked 1.26 mark through the prior 23 games to highlight an unsustainable – and catastrophic – drop in timely hitting has been another huge contributor to the skid. Chicago begins returning to form at the plate this afternoon.

Cubs vs Rockies Over/Under pick: Under 11.5 (-122)

The Cubs and Rockies played to the Under the first two games of the series with just 15 runs combined, so with the potential for both teams to rest regulars Thursday, this total is too high for me.

Additionally, while Chicago righty Edward Cabrera was hit hard in his return from a blister on his middle finger, he surrendered three earned runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts while pitching to a nearly identical 4.00 ERA and 4.01 xFIP to start the year.

Finally, considering the highlighted Cubs struggles at the dish, I’m not anticipating Chicago flipping the script entirely this afternoon and would play this Under to -125.

Cubs vs Rockies odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -155 | Rockies +130
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (-100) | Rockies +1.5 (-120)
• Over/Under: Over 11 (-115) | Under 11 (-105)

Cubs vs Rockies trend

The Cubs have cashed the Under in 18 of their last 30 games for +5.15 units and a 16% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rockies.

How to watch Cubs vs Rockies and game info

Cubs vs Rockies latest injuries

Cubs vs Rockies weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

2026 MLB Draft Preview: Jared Grindlinger scouting report.

The 2026 is about a month away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at Huntington Beach, California, two-way player Jared Grindlinger.

Jared Grindlinger is a 6’3”, 185 lb. lefthanded hitter and thrower who is matriculating from Huntington Beach High School in California. Grindlinger is one of the youngest players in this year’s draft class, having just turned 17 this past April. Grindlinger was originally going to be in the 2027 draft class, but reclassified four months ago to being draft-eligible in 2026. He is committed to the University of Tennessee, where his older brother, Trent, is a freshman who has been the Volunteers’ starting catcher this year.

As a hitter, the reports on Grindlinger describe him as contact-oriented, without a lot of present power, but with a build and swing that projects for power in the future. BP describes him as having “elite” contact ability and strike zone control.

Defensively, Grindlinger plays the outfield, though his lack of speed means he’s probably a corner outfielder, with right field being the best fit due to his arm. His speed will probably decrease as he fills out, which could result in him ending up at first base.

On the mound, Grindlinger is “all about projection,” per MLB Pipeline, which notes that his present stuff isn’t all that impressive. His fastball has touched 96 but is generally in the low 90s, with a slider that is a work in progress. His changeup is seen as his best offspeed pitch, with MLB Pipeline noting he has thrown both a circle change and a kick change.

Baseball America has Grindlinger at #17 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Grindlinger at #18 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Grindlinger at #11 on his top 150 list. Keith Law’s rankings have Grindlinger at #12 on his board. Fangraphs does not have Grindlinger on their board. Baseball Prospectus has Grindlinger at #15 on their top 30 draft board.

In the most recent Baseball America mock draft, Carlos Collazo has Grindlinger going to the Nationals at #11, and also mentions him in connection with several other teams in the early teens. Jim Callis’s June 4 mock draft has Grindlinger going to the Nationals at #11. Keith Law’s May mock draft has Grindlinger going to the Guardians at #19. Law’s June 10 mock draft has Grindlinger going to the Rangers at #18. Kiley McDaniel’s May 29 mock draft has Grindlinger going to the Nationals at #11.

Grindlinger is a really interesting draft candidate. His re-classifying just five months before the draft means that teams had not focused on him previously as much as other high schoolers who were draft-eligible this year. His being so young means that there’s much more projecting that has to be done with him, as well as the fact that as a two-way player he has not focused on either pitching or hitting as much as a non-two-way player would have at this point. To put his youth into context, on draft day, Grindlinger will be roughly five months older than Sebastian Walcott was when the Rangers signed him.

Grindlinger is a high upside, high risk guy right now, and the chances are good that he will be off the board when the Rangers pick. If he’s not, the Rangers, who have two way teenagers Josh Owens and Seong-Jung Kim playing in the ACL this year, would have the opportunity to add another youngster with two-way potential to the system.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

The St. Louis Cardinals will continue their joyride in New York Wednesday afternoon as Hunter Dobbins will get the start for the Redbirds. The New York Mets will hope Christian Scott can pull off a miracle as he will take the mound for the metros. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm central time and the broadcast will be available on Cardinals.tv.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates settle their three-game series with the finale at PNC Park tonight.

Mitch Keller takes the hill for the home team, and my Dodgers vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, June 11, don’t envision him finding much success.

Who will win Dodgers vs Pirates today: Dodgers moneyline (-165)

There isn’t much to like about Mitch Keller’s profile at this stage of his career against a potent team like the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Keller’s 4.54 xERA and .278 xBA aren’t encouraging. He doesn’t miss bats (18th percentile whiff rate), which isn’t a surprise given his underhwhelming stuff (93 Stuff+).

L.A. has a .273 xBA — and a 148 wRC+ against right-handed pitching — in the last 14 days and should collect plenty of hits while avoiding the punchout (9.7 swinging strike rate).

Justin Wrobleski gives the Boys in Blue a starting pitching edge. Play them up to -175.

COVERS INTEL: Mitch Keller leads with his four-seamer (33%) and has been fortunate with a .229 BA. The pitch’s .310 xBA is more concerning, and LA — with a league-best 19.4 runs above average against fastballs — will provide immediate regression.

Dodgers vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-105)

The forecast screams hitting weather, so I’ll open up my ears and oblige Mother Nature’s call.

It’ll be a warm day in the low 80s with winds of 9-11 mph blowing out to left field. That’s bumped the total up to 9.5, but it isn’t a big enough increase.

Wrobleski’s underlying profile begs for regression. He’s essentially a two-pitch hurler, and the Pittsburgh Pirates rank sixth against fastballs (12.6 wFA) and eighth against sliders (3.4 wSL).

Both bullpens have been a disaster (L.A. 6.04 ERA over the last 14 days, Pittsburgh 5.88).

Dodgers vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -170 | Pirates +145
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-105) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)

Dodgers vs Pirates trend

The Pirates have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 14 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Pirates.

How to watch Dodgers vs Pirates and game info

Dodgers vs Pirates latest injuries

Dodgers vs Pirates weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

FIRST PITCH: 1210p Central

TELEVISION: Twins.TV, “presented” “by” “Progressive”

RADIO: WCCO 830 AM “Your Good Neighbors to the North”, KMNB 102.9 FM “The Wolf”, The “Glen Perkins Kinda Sounds Like He’s Getting Tired of Kris Atteberry” Baseball Network, Audacy Application

KNOW OUR FOE:Bless You Boys, a Detroit Tigers Community

The Minnesota Twins finish up a 10-game stretch of contests against American League Central rivals today with a rubber match against the Detroit Tigers. A win secures a 5-5 record during that stretch and pushes the Tigers to 3.5 games behind the Twins for third in the division. A Twins loss doesn’t do the things that you just read.

After a successful bullpen game in which the bullpen did their darndest to cough it up as usual, Minnesota will send Zebby Matthews to the mound and ask him to go at least nine innings today à la old school Major League Baseball. You could make an argument that Matthews has been the most consistent starting pitcher as of late, turning in four quality starts in his last five games. His last outing was against the Kansas City Royals in which he went seven innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs, four walks, and struck out two. That outing – and two more of his past five starts – saw Zebby throw 100 pitches on the dot. The Twins will definitely look to avail of this workhorse today.

Detroit counters with Keider Montero. The 25-year-old Venezuelan had a rough outing his last time out, going five innings and allowing four earned runs to the Seattle Mariners at home. The highly-regarded prospect has had a handful of great outings but also a handful of rougher outings; the Tigers are 4-8 in games in which Montero has started. He’ll feature a mid-90s four-seamer, a slider, a change, and a curve.

GO TWIMS GO

Mets lineup

1. Carson Benge – RF
2. Bo Bichette – SS
3. Juan Soto – DH
4. Jared Young – 1B
5. A.J. Ewing – CF
6. Marcus Semien – 2B
7. Brett Baty – 3B
8. Francisco Alvarez – C
9. MJ Melendez – LF

SP: Christian Scott

Cardinals lineup

1. JJ Wetherholt – 2B
2. Iván Herrera – DH
3. Alec Burleson – 1B
4. Jordan Walker – RF
5. Lars Nootbaar – LF
6. Masyn Winn – SS
7. Jimmy Crooks – C
8. Nolan Gorman – 3B
9. Nathan Church – CF

SP: Hunter Dobbins

Broadcast info

First pitch: 1:10 PM EDT
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

Jordan Romano knows what it feels like to be one of the best relievers in baseball. He has been there.

Two All-Star appearances, 105 saves with the Toronto Blue Jays, and a stretch from 2021 through 2023 where he was, on most nights, simply unhittable. A 6-foot-5 right-hander from Markham, Ontario, with a fastball that backed hitters off the plate and a 2.90 ERA across his six seasons in Toronto, Romano was, for several years, one of the most reliable ninth-inning arms in the American League.

Then the right elbow gave out.

Romano underwent arthroscopic surgery in July 2024 to repair an impingement. He made just 15 appearances in 2024, posted a 6.59 ERA, and watched Toronto non-tender him that winter.

He signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for $8.5 million in 2025, trying to recapture his elite form. Romano made 49 appearances, posted an 8.23 ERA across 42.2 innings, and ended the season on the IL with right middle finger inflammation. He then signed with the Los Angeles Angels over the winter on a major league deal and made the Opening Day roster, but lasted 11 appearances before being released on April 27 with a 10.13 ERA across eight innings. The Angels chapter lasted less than a month.

Now, sitting in the Arizona heat at the Rockies’ Scottsdale facility — days before his assignment to Triple-A Albuquerque — Romano was throwing off the mound for the third time in a week and talking about energy transfer.

Choosing Colorado

The reason he chose Colorado, of all the places he could have landed, comes down to one name: Matt Buschmann.

The Rockies bullpen coach was on Romano’s staff in Toronto for several years, and Romano credits him as a significant piece of his success during that run. When the opportunity to sign with Colorado emerged, Romano called Buschmann. He liked what he heard about the people the organization had brought in. He spoke with pitching personnel — Owen Cuffee and Emilio Martinez among them — and came away convinced this was the right environment to do the work.

“I really like the stuff they’re doing, the new guys they hired,” Romano said. “I talked to Owen and Emilio — really smart guys. I decided this is probably the best fit for me to work on my stuff, get better down here, and help contribute up there.”

Rebuilding the delivery

The work, in his telling, is specific. The mechanics of how he transfers energy through his delivery — the sequencing, the timing, the feel of it translating from bullpen session to live game — is where he is spending most of his time. It is unglamorous and incremental, the kind of thing that doesn’t show up in a stat line.

Some days it clicks.

Some days it doesn’t.

“I’m trying to get to the point where my delivery is doing what I’ve been working on without really thinking about it,” he said. “Muscle memory. I feel like we’re almost there. It’s kind of exciting.”

He is also working on a new splitter grip — one he believes gives him better command of the pitch and more movement — and on generating more velocity overall. The combination of a tuned-up delivery and a sharper splitter, in his mind, is the difference between the pitcher he has been recently and the pitcher he knows he can be.

Finding joy in the process

What is striking about Romano, sitting in the ACL clubhouse in early June, is how unbothered he seems by any of it. This is his fourth organization in three years — Toronto, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and now Colorado. — and he has developed a kind of institutional fluency for the transition.

“The first two weeks, you’re kind of learning everyone’s name,” he said. “And then after two weeks, it’s kind of like — everyone’s been cool here.”

He does not come off as bitter about the way things have gone. He is not performing enthusiasm that he doesn’t feel. He genuinely seems to enjoy the process.

“The thing I like most about baseball is, like, the performing is amazing,” he said, “but the working on stuff — you’re trying to do something, and then you see it kind of click. That’s the best feeling for me.”

He paused. “Get down here, get in the trenches a little bit, work on your stuff.”

The road back to Coors

He has pitched at Coors Field before. He knows what it asks of a pitcher — the way breaking balls behave differently in thin air, the necessary adjustments in pitch locations.

“You’ve got to set your sights a little differently with your breaking balls,” he said. “But I actually enjoy it. It’s a beautiful park.”

He wants to get back there. He is not racing toward it. One step at a time, he said. Get the delivery right first. Let the rest follow.

For a pitcher who was, not long ago, one of the most reliable closers in the American League, the patience required to rebuild something from the ground up in Triple-A in June is not nothing.

But Romano doesn’t frame it as patience.

He frames it as a preference.

The work itself, he says, is that part he loves. The competing and feeling good — that’s what he’s building toward.

“Sometimes it’s not as fun competing when you know you’re a little off, or you don’t feel right,” he said. “Competing and feeling good — that’s going to be fun. That’s honestly one of the better feelings you can have.”

He’s close. He said so himself. From a guy who has had every reason to stop believing it, that counted for something.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

The Cubs sit at 34-34 so far in 2026, but the way they’ve gotten to that .500 record is anything but average. While it seems hard to believe here in June, yes, it was 2026 when the Cubs were putting together multiple 10 game winning streaks, not to mention a 15-game home winning streak that had fans giddy and looking up records from decades ago.

Oh, what a difference a month makes:

That’s right, y’all. It was this season when the Cubs were 15-games over .500 and looked like they might just be the team to beat in a tough NL Central. Here on June 11 they are eight games back of the division leading Brewers having just dropped back-to-back games (and therefor the series) against the 26-42 Colorado Rockies. Their offensive woes are so entrenched they’ve managed to score just five runs in two games at Coors Field.

To be clear, baseball isn’t played in a 30-game season for a reason. There are winning streaks and losing streaks. The 2016 World Series Champion Cubs were 1-9 heading into the All Star break. But looking at that 7-22 mark, which is good for merely a .241 winning percentage over a 29-game stretch, had me wondering which Cubs teams had 30-game stretches of sub-.300 winning percentage baseball and how they wound up faring that season.

Luckily, Baseball Reference has precisely the right tool for this query in their span-finder. Unluckily, none of the Cubs teams who have ever gone 8-22 at some stretch during the season since 1920 (the Live Ball Era) have ever made the playoffs. You can peruse this very sad and hapless list below:

A few notes on this list. First, spans don’t happen in neat 30-game intervals and the way Baseball Reference deals with that is to identify multiple spans. I sorted this query by lowest winning percentage and scanned a little over 250 individual spans to identify each year where there was a 30-game span with an 8-22 record or worse. I think I got every season, but I may have missed one or two. Additionally, a lot of the teams who had a 5-25 stretch also had a 6-24 stretch or a 7-23 stretch, you get the gist. They are represented by the worst 30-game stretch they had that season.

The years that don’t have 30 decisions in the list are stretches that had some tie games in pre-lights Wrigley Field.

All of the above notes aside, that table isn’t so much a warning bell as the Titanic hitting an iceberg. The glass isn’t half empty, it somehow evaporated after being overflowing.

No Cubs team that has ever posted a 30-game winning streak with an 8-22 record (or worse) during any stretch of the season has ever made the playoffs. Out of 23 seasons where managers experienced such a stretch, four previous Cubs managers were fired during that season, an additional three resigned.

To be clear, I’ve seen and read nothing that leads me to believe Craig Counsell or any other member of the Cubs coaching staff should be fired. The injury problems to the pitching staff combined with the offensive struggles of well over half of the lineup aren’t going to magically improve because of a new manager. Do not add my voice to the cacophony of fans who think this team will go back to winning 10 in a row with a new skipper. That said, one of the first things that jumped out at me as I scanned these seasons was that 30.4% of the managers who oversaw such a stretch were not managing the Cubs at the end of that season.

It’s bleak, to say the least.

The next team on the list of terrible, horrible, no good, 30-game spans just happens to be the first appearance of the 2026 Cubs. The Cubs entered play tonight with a 9-21 record over their last 30 games. If they can eke out a win today they will be 8-22 over their last 30 games.

We should all take some solace in yesterday being the first appearance of the 2026 Cubs on this list. They’ll have earned themselves a second appearance after tomorrow, even if they win. In an environment with expanded playoffs they may even be able to make the postseason field. But many of the teams on this list appear 5, 10, sometimes 20 or more times, and they certainly didn’t have two 10-game winning streak under their belts earlier in the season. If the Cubs are going to try for another unprecedented feat in 2026, perhaps they will become the first team to make the playoffs in a season where they posted a sub .300 winning percentage for a period of 30 games.

After completing my most recent review on Daniel Jackson, I started thinking “What if the Phillies drafted for need?” The “need” being a right handed power bat, preferably a corner OF. I would also prefer if the prospect not be a reach or a guy that almost certainly will go 20 spots higher. Turns out there’s a guy ranked in the Phillies range at #29, that could easily fall to the 36th pick. As luck would have it he’s a former power hitting Catcher who had to convert to Right Field because of defensive concerns (promise I did not plan all these little parallels).

Rose is a 6’1”, 210 lbs Right Fielder who just turned 21 at the end of May. He was ranked ~200 in the 2023 draft, but since he told teams he would honor his commitment to Louisville, he went undrafted. He’s an above-average runner (though he’s a stocky guy, so I expect that to not be a big long term strength) and currently an above-average hitter for power with a potential to tap into more (on to that later). He has a borderline plus arm, which is enough to play in Right Field, where he reportedly gets good reads and has the speed and arm to be, at least, as average defender out there. Jackson has fringe 5-tool skills, but Zion is almost entirely about the Power as his lone carrying tool, though nothing else looks below average.

As a hitter, Zion is also very different from Jackson’s relatively clean swing. Zion has similar bat speed and strength, but with a big leg kick and a lot of bat wiggle before he starts his swing. Higher level Pitchers may be able to exploit all that movement by rushing him and throwing his timing off. So he’ll need some adjustments made with a pro hitting coach to try to quiet those parts down some. Also similar to Jackson, Zion had a bit of a reputation as a free swinger, but unlike Jackson he has a history of very good bat control that allowed him to make consistent contact with a very respectable 14% K rate in 2025 and a 10% K rate in 2026 and consistently ran excellent walk rates the last 2 years. Zion’s Home Runs were down this year, but his doubles were up (both in terms of rate, as he played way less games this year thanks to Louisville having a very down year and not making the postseason), so his Slugging is actually higher. Still draft year is a bad time for bad Home Run luck, especially if it’s a big part of your profile. I think a swing change to silence some of the bat waggle and improve his timing, as he sometimes strides, then rotates and it would be best to be into your rotation a little earlier, can further aid in his ability to get to an above average or better hit profile. It’s a small change, but could unlock additional home run power too.

I’ll embed two videos here. The first is from a showcase during his High School years, so you can see his swing then (also, some teams still are reportedly high on his potential behind the dish, so you get some throws from the position to start off here). The second is of highlights from this season. No side views, but the swing, while nosier, does seem to have more of an upstroke for launch angle.

The reason I think Zion is ranked a little ahead of Jackson is because of greater positional certainty. He’s already shown he can be an average or better player full time at positions other than Catcher along with a better hitting track record. I’d be shocked to see any team put him back at Catcher and set his development timeline back by likely years. I’d expect he stays in the OF, maybe even Center early on until he proves he needs to move to Right or Left.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Stop the presses, I hit a home run prop last night! The tide is turning, and now I have a small getaway slate to dig into those MLB player props for another Dinger winner.

The lefties have the hitting edge at Citi Field with winds going to right field and prime hitting conditions, while the bats at Kauffman will get an 18-mph wind boost to center field. I wrap things up with a Dodger bat this evening!

These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, June 11. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Alec Burleson	+449
Jac Caglianone	+582
Freddie Freeman	+441
💲Today's HR parlay	+15519

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+449)

Left-handed bats get a boost today with 10-mph winds blowing out to right field at Citi Field, and Alec Burleson is the target. He has already homered in each of the first two games of the series and has gone deep three times over his last five games.

He also owns one of the best flyball rates on the team over the last two weeks, and the lefty has one of the strongest pull rates in the lineup.

The fair price for him to go deep for a third straight game is closer to +370/+380, making him one of the better +EV dingers on the board today.

He'll face Christian Scott, who looks due for some correction in his current HR/FB rate while carrying one of the worst groundball rates in baseball.

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Cardinals.TV

Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+582)

Kauffman Stadium is hot and humid today with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. The Royals get Kumar Rocker, who appears to be outperforming his underlying numbers. His HR/FB rate is roughly half of what it was last season, despite carrying a worse groundball rate.

He saw Kansas City two starts ago and pitched well, but the familiarity edge shifts to the Royals hitters in today's rematch.

Jac Caglianone is swinging the fastest bat on the Royals over the last two weeks and at a Top-10 rate in all of baseball. The bat speed is turning into production, as he has three home runs over that stretch while slugging a team-best .737.

Only 15 players in baseball have posted a better slugging percentage than Caglianone over the last 14 days.

His price is still longer than some of the bigger-name Royals bats, but based on recent form and the underlying metrics, Caglianone at +450 or better is the best way to take advantage of the wind, heat, and pitching matchup.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, Rangers Sports Network

Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+441)

Mitch Keller is one of the better home run targets in the late games tonight. He has been especially vulnerable to left-handed hitters, who account for 68% of his home runs allowed since 2024.

The wind is blowing out to left field at 10 mph, which fits Freddie Freeman's profile, as only 12.2% of his balls in play are pulled.

Freeman is 9-for-18 lifetime vs. Keller, with one dinger, has three four-baggers over the last two weeks, and has the Dodgers' third-best slugging rate over that stretch — behind two guys who are 100 and 200 points shorter to go yard today.

There aren't a ton of good HR looks late today, but the righty vs. lefty of Keller vs. Freeman at +400 or better is making the card. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNP, SNLA

Today’s HR parlay

Alec Burleson	Bet Now +15519
Jac Caglianone
Freddie Freeman

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Texas Rangers lineup for June 11, 2026 against the Kansas City Royals: starting pitchers are Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and Michael Wacha for the Royals.

We have an afternoon getaway game in Kansas City today. If the Rangers win, they will win the series and get to .500. If they lose, they will lose the series, drop to two games under .500, and we will all continue to wonder whether they will ever get back to even this year. Joc Pederson gets the day off after leaving yesterday’s game with a hip issue.

The lineup:

Langford — LF

Seager — SS

Jung — 3B

Nimmo — DH

Duran — RF

Burger — 1B

Carter — CF

Diaz — C

Lopez — 2B

1:10 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are +105 underdogs.

The MLB draft is a month away, to be held during All-Star week in Philadelphia beginning on July 11. The Royals benefitted from the draft lottery, moving them up to the #6 overall pick. This is considered a fairly strong draft class with good impact talent, with a terrific class of college hitters at the top and a deep pool of talented high school pitchers.

UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is the consensus best player in this class, likely to go #1 to the White Sox. Prep shortstop Grady Emerson is the top high school player with Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey also likely to go in the first few picks.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel writes that the “next grouping after the clear top three players” includes high school shortstop Jacob Lombard, high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr., and college pitcher Jackson Flora. The Royals should be positioned to grab one of these six players, but they also have the sixth-largest bonus pool, which could allow them to be flexible. There is typically a surprise in the first ten picks, and McDaniel thinks it could come with the Royals’ pick. They could cut an under-slot deal with the #6 pick, to grab a first-round talent in later rounds that fell due to high bonus demands.

What are the top draft observers saying about who the Royals might take? While mock drafts remain an inexact science, many of the game’s top draft writers keep connecting Kansas City to the same handful of names, most notably Lombard, Booth, and left-hander Gio Rojas.

Jacob Lombard is a right-handed bat whose father George was a big leaguer, and whose brother is a top prospect with the Yankees. The Miami-area product is a five-tool player widely lauded for his baseball IQ and coachability. The last time the Royals selected a toolsy, mature high school shortstop whose dad played in the big leagues, it seemed to work out for them. In a mock draft back in early May, Keith Law of the Athletic had the Royals going chalk and grabbing Lombard. Most other mocks also report the Royals prefer Lombard, although they don’t think he will be available when the Royals select at #6.

Eric Booth Jr. is a 70-grade runner with good bat speed that some evaluators think will translate to decent power numbers in the big leagues. MLB Pipeline notes that Booth’s left-handed swing can look choppy at times, but evaluators are encouraged by his excellent exit velocities. He also won the home run derby at the Perfect Game All-American Classic. Joel Reuter at Bleacher Report has the Royals taking Booth, citing his potential as a “20-homer, 40-steal everyday center fielder.” Law reports that the Royals’ plan is to take either Lombard or Booth if one is available. McDaniel and Carlos Collazo at Baseball America each write that the Royals prefer Lombard to Booth.

Gio Rojas could be the option if both Lombard and Booth are off the table. Jim Callis at MLB Pipeline wrote the Royals will “sort through the consensus top six players, at least one of whom will get to them, along with left-hander Gio Rojas, the consensus top prep pitcher.” The Miami-area lefty can run his fastball up to 98 mph and complements it with a sweeping slider and a changeup. MLB Pipeline writes he has the makings of a frontline starter, and with “outstanding presence on the mound” and an ability to “fill up the strike zone.” McDaniel writes that Rojas is the backup option if Lombard and Booth are both off the table, possibly as a “cut-rate option” that could sign underslot. Collazo reports the Royals have heavily scouted Rojas.

Jackson Flora is the top college pitcher on the board, and could be an option if the top prep players are off the board. Peyton Sower at Just Baseball writes that Royals scouting director Brian Bridges has done well with college pitching selection in recent years, so he has the UC-Santa Barbara pitcher going to the Royals. He writes that Flora has a “fascinating arsenal” with “above-average command” including a kick-change he uses against left-handers. Flora had a 1.06 ERA with 133 strikeouts in 102 innings this season for the Gauchos.

Other names that could be possibilities for the Royals include high school pitcher Carson Bolemon, who Keith Law calls one of the top prep arms. He writes that the Royals prefer Lombard or Booth, but pitching could be a “fallback option” with the South Carolina lefty a possibility.

California high schooler Jared Grindlinger is an intriguing two-way player that most teams see as a hitter, but Callis reports the Royals like him better as a pitcher. At 17, he’s one of the youngest players in the draft, but has a fastball that sits 90-93 mph that could tick up as he grows.

Collazo reports there is some buzz about Florida right-hander Liam Peterson, although he might be a reach at #6. The Royals have gone with Gator pitchers before – notably Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar. Peterson stands 6’5” with a mid-90s fastball that could increase in velo in shorter stints. He had a 4.59 ERA with 111 strikeouts in 84.1 innings this year for the Gators.

The Royals could look to college hitters, with McDaniel suggesting Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick is an option. A right-handed slugger, Helfrick hit .283/.417/.562 with 18 home runs in 62 games for the Razorbacks and 55 walks. Mark Powell at FanSided has the Royals going with Drew Burress, who hit .358/.473/.657 with 16 home runs and 10 steals in 61 games for Georgia Tech. Burress is a more polished hitter, but standing at 5’9”, he lacks imposing physical tools. Powell writes that Burress has rising stock, and would likely be an underslot signing.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Happy Friday Junior, folks! Read that again: I did not say "Happy Friday."

Despite it being a getaway day, there are a few guys I'm in love with to have success at the dish today: Hunter Goodman, Miguel Vargas, and Randal Grichuk.

Here's how I'm targeting their MLB player props on June 11.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Hunter Goodman	Over 1.5 total bases	-102
Miguel Vargas	Over 1.5 total bases	+104
Randal Grichuk	Over 1.5 total bases	+117

Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 total bases (-102)

Over at Coors Field, Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman finds himself in yet another great matchup against Chicago Cubs right-hander Edward Cabrera.

In the default ratings on Batters-Box, Goodman owns a strong rating, with that data dating back to the start of his career. While the sophomore catcher carries an elite rating in the current season timeframe, his trends toward a strong rating are still worth noting. 

Across 30 strong ratings, Goodman has left the yard 26.67% of the time and surpassed this prop in 50% of those games. Not only that, but the Rockies' backstop owns an 87.4% arsenal coverage rating against Cabrera's pitch mix.

The 26-year-old got off to a slow start this season, but he has turned things around over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, batting .304 with a 1.000 SLG and 1.433 OPS while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 33.5% barrel rate.

Since returning from injury, Cabrera has not exactly been a pitcher I'm looking to back.

Against the last 30 right-handed hitters he's faced, he's allowed 47.4% hard contact, a 21.1% barrel rate, and a 52.7% elevation rate. Those hitters have also posted a .311 xBA, .681 xSLG, and .426 xwOBA during that stretch.

At nearly even money for two bases at Coors Field, I'd play this down to -110 if I had to.

• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee, COLR

Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 total bases (+104)

The next two guys I'm going to boast about offer a ton of value this evening. Sure, they might not even play due to the thunderstorms expected to roll through the South Side of Chicago, but I don't look at, nor do I care about, the weather.

14 mph winds blowing out, though. Eyes emoji

With how well Chicago White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas has been playing this season — especially against southpaws — it's hard to pass up the value on him tonight.

For those worried about the rain, I actually love a hitter even more if there's a delay. Making a starting pitcher go through his routine twice before the first pitch can throw everything out of whack.

Vargas enters today with a favorable matchup rating on Batters-Box in the default ratings dating back three seasons. More importantly, he owns an elite rating in the current season timeframe.

He also carries a 95.3% arsenal coverage rating against Atlanta Braves left-hander Martin Perez's pitch mix.

The soon-to-be All-Star has been torching lefties. Over his last 30 plate appearances against them, Vargas owns a .409 batting average, .682 slugging percentage, and a 1.234 OPS, while producing 60% hard contact and a 10% barrel rate.

Perez has allowed nearly a 60% elevation rate to right-handed hitters on the road while also surrendering 40.6% hard contact.

With the wind blowing out and the way Vargas has been seeing left-handed pitching, I want to be all over him this evening. I wouldn't pay any juice on this prop, so shop around and grab the best plus-money price you can find.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, BravesVsn

Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 total bases (+117)

The other guy I’m in love with in this matchup is newly added fan favorite Randal Grichuk, who has been a great addition for the White Sox since arriving from the Yankees.

Like Vargas, he has been giving left-handed pitchers hell this season, sporting a .407 BA, .889 SLG, and 1.356 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws. During that span, he has also produced a 40.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate.

The 34-year-old veteran owns the second-highest rating in this matchup over on Batters-Box, marking his 33rd elite home rating. In his previous 32 elite home ratings, he has recorded at least one hit 65.63% of the time and doubled in 37.5% of them.

With Grichuk hitting in the two-hole and two bases sitting at +117, I think this is a great spot for both the No. 2 and No. 3 hitters tonight — assuming the weather cooperates.

For those wondering why I'm backing these props despite the weather concerns, my answer is simple: if they're playing, there's always a chance.

That's how I've always approached it. Others may disagree, but I spend far too much time digging through the data to let the possibility of rain, snow, or even a massive typhoon scare me off a play. If the game is on, it's in consideration.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, BravesVsn

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Jose Reyes turns 43 today.

In November 2012, Jose Reyes joined the Blue Jays as part of a blockbuster trade with the Marlins. Toronto received Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, outfielder Emilio Bonifacio, and catcher John Buck, while Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis, and Anthony DeSclafani went to Florida.

This was the first in a series of high-profile moves that supposedly ‘won the off-season’ for Toronto. By all accounts, Reyes was the player then-GM Alex Anthopoulos most coveted, and the deal expanded from there.

The trade ultimately didn’t work out well for the Blue Jays. Johnson made 16 poor starts, was injured, and never pitched in the majors again. Emilio Bonifacio struggled on both offense and defense before being traded mid-season. John Buck was quickly flipped to the Mets, and Mark Buehrle ended up staying with the team the longest.

As for Reyes, he struggled with frequent injuries and didn’t quite meet expectations during his two and a half seasons with the Blue Jays.

In 2013, Reyes hit .296/.353/.427 with 15 steals in 93 games. Unfortunately, he suffered a severe ankle injury on April 12th, causing him to miss over two months. After returning, he struggled to push off that foot, which seemed to impact his defensive range.

2014 was another challenging year. Reyes hit .287/.328/.398 with 30 stolen bases, but defensively, he committed 19 errors and his range was diminished.

2015 brought more of the same challenges. Radio broadcaster Jerry Howarth seemed determined to criticize Reyes, particularly for his errors at crucial moments and his cheerful demeanor on the bench even when the team was losing.

While the criticism was understandable given the team’s disappointing performance in recent seasons, Howarth’s focus on Reyes felt excessive.

Eventually, Reyes was traded along with Miguel Castro, Jeff Hoffman, and Jesus Tinoco to the Rockies in exchange for Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins.

That trade, along with acquisitions of David Price, Mark Lowe, and Ben Revere, plus Marcus Stroman’s return from the IL, energized the Jays, who went 40-18 over the last two months of the season. Perhaps Jerry was right that Reyes was holding the team back; Tulowitzki provided more defensive stability, though he too would struggle with injuries.

Reyes finished 2015 with the Rockies, but off-field issues arose, including a domestic violence incident that led to his suspension and eventual release by Colorado before he played a game in 2016. He later signed with the Mets and played with them from 2016 to 2018.

During his 2.5 seasons with Toronto, Reyes hit .289/.334/.404 with 61 stolen bases over 305 games.

Over his 16-year MLB career, Reyes posted a .283/.334/.427 line with 145 home runs and 517 stolen bases in 1,877 games—a very solid career overall.

Ezequiel Carrera turns 39 today.

Carrera spent the final three years of his seven-year MLB career with the Blue Jays, from 2015 to 2017, primarily playing the corner outfield positions.

I’ll admit I wasn’t a huge fan. In 2015, he hit .273/.321/.372 over 91 games, and in 2016, he posted a .248/.323/.356 line in 110 games.

His saving grace was his strong playoff performance in 2016. Carrera went 2-for-4 in the Wild Card game against the Orioles and then hit .333/.429/.583 with a home run during the Blue Jays’ three-game ALDS win over the Rangers. He didn’t hit much in the ALCS loss to Cleveland, but neither did the rest of the team.

Carrera had his best offensive season in 2017, hitting .282/.356/.408, but his defensive struggles limited him to a -0.1 bWAR. He often took circuitous routes to fly balls and lacked the arm strength to compensate.

After being released by the Blue Jays following the 2017 season, Carrera signed with the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers organizations but never returned to the majors.

Beyond his defensive issues, my lasting memory is of Carrera occasionally getting a home run on a pitch at head level. Then, for the next couple of weeks, he’d swing at anything high.

Carrera was a classic replacement-level player—good enough to fill a roster spot, but ideally not playing as often as he did. For a left-handed hitter, he posted only a modest platoon split (.660 OPS vs. lefties, .698 vs. righties), which limited his value as a platoon option. He wasn’t dependable enough to be used as a late-inning defensive replacement either.

Across seven MLB seasons, Carrera hit .262/.324/.365 with 19 home runs and 44 stolen bases in 508 games, including 332 appearances with Toronto.

Happy Birthday, Ezequiel.