LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 14: Manager Dave Roberts #30 of the Los Angeles Dodgers waits at the mound during a pitching change with the infielders during the seventh inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game three of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on October 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We’ll see what happens in the World Series, but another opportunity for a historic comeback has come and gone. The 2004 Boston Red Sox remain the only team ever to overcome an 0-3 series deficit in a best-of-seven series in the history of baseball.
That’s hopefully a trend that goes on forever, leaving the legendary 2004 team on a pedestal of its own. Now with that said, it’s starting to get really annoying to see the media attempt to connect a modern-day team to the ‘04 Sox every single time a club goes down three games to none in a series. Sure, it’s a nice 2004 PR bump – not that the team needs it – but doing the “but dude, remember ‘04?’ for all of these teams is getting ridiculous.
While many of these occurrences have sparked a quick chuckle and move on, the bit really gets old fast.
Examples?
David Ortiz’s razzing (one of many) of Derek Jeter during the 2023 ALCS. Aaron Boone showing the 2022 Yankees highlights of ESPN’s Four Days in October to fire up his squad (because showing an all-time low point of franchise history should do the trick!). The list goes on and on.
So honestly, credit to Dave Roberts – the man who ignited that magical October to begin with – for not inserting Red Sox propaganda into the 2026 NLCS, where it had no business being. Los Angeles got swept by the Milwaukee Brewers to end their bid for a three-peat and keep Boston’s long-standing legacy alive.
The funny thing with so many of these examples is that whenever the teams or media point to 2004 to draw up a narrative, the incoming sweep (or gentleman’s sweep) feels inevitable and often plays out that way. That’s all the more reason to let the 2004 team live on their own and stop forcing the Sox into headlines where they don’t belong.
Only one other team has even forced a Game 7 after falling down 0-3. That would be the 2020 Houston Astros in the COVID season, who won three in a row before the Tampa Bay Rays finally woke up to win Game 7 and keep the Red Sox exclusive in their club. THAT was a fine time to make 2004 connections given how close Houston actually came to joining the party.
Until a team is on the doorstep for real, please stop injecting 2004 talk into every single October. What the 2004 Red Sox did was amazing. Hardly any other team has even come close. It’s more than enough.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 24: Gary Sánchez #99 of the Milwaukee Brewers slides into home plate against J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies for a run on an RBI single by Joey Ortiz #3 (not pictured) in the eighth inning during a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 24, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Trea Turner will open the season at shortstop. Don Mattingly is returning as manager. Alec Bohm could be back at third base, Luis Arraez could also return. The majority of a bullpen nobody liked is set to return, no starting pitchers are getting dealt to help in other areas, and it sounds like Brandon Marsh isn’t going anywhere, either.
All these nuggets from Dave Dombrowski’s press conference on Thursday may have you feeling perplexed, bewildered, confused and perhaps a bit frustrated.
To be fair to Dombrowski and Mattingly, they were never going to come out and say, “Get ready for an off-season of big changes.” You never make promises you don’t know if you can keep, and with the lockout looming and so much roster inflexibility, the level of change desired by most may not be realistic. We’ve been saddled with an underachieving roster that appears headed in the wrong direction, and we want to know that the 70-year-old team president is seeing what we’re seeing.
Based on his statements Thursday, it seems clearer to Dombrowski there are more issues to deal with than in past seasons, but he’s not exactly matching our energy. Which, to be honest, is probably a good thing. Were he to signal that players under contract for 2027 weren’t in the team’s plans for next year, he’d have a hard time getting any kind of trade value for them.
But it does feel like the future Hall of Fame executive is not keeping up. Organizations like the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians and the NL champion Milwaukee Brewers, are doing laps around the Phils. It’s telling that, after their fifth straight postseason appearance, the team fired their longtime hitting coach Kevin Long, and their infield coach Bobby Dickerson, because they couldn’t get this team of stubborn veterans to play better. The roster, coaching staff, farm system, heck the entire organization, feels stuck in neutral compared to these small-market, low-budget teams that feature an array of good, young, athletic talent with homegrown superstars at the big league level and more on the way.
The Phillies’ farm system is not producing quality baseball players in the numbers it should, and they’re still trying to figure out why.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have quietly been one of baseball’s best teams for the last decade. Since 2018, Milwaukee has missed the postseason just once in nine seasons, when the 2022 Brewers finished in 2nd place with an 86-76 record and just barely missed out on the third wild card that the Phillies used to sneak into the tournament.
Finally, on their 8th try in 9 seasons, they’ve reached the World Series. They lost a heartbreaker of a seven-game series in the ‘18 NLCS to the Dodgers, lost in the wild card round four times, fell in the NLDS in ‘21, and were swept by the very same Dodgers they dispatched in four games last night.
It was very cool to see the Brewers avenge their sweep at the hands of Los Angeles last season, taking out the team that swept them a season ago as they sought their third straight title. It happened because the players displayed a resiliency that the Philadelphia nine has been lacking in recent seasons.
The Brewers moved past their failures. The Phillies are still struggling to do so.
In 2023, the Phils looked well on their way to following up their magical run to the World Series the season before after blitzing the Diamondbacks 10-0 in Game 2. We all know what happened next. Arizona adjusted their approach to the Phillies’ lineup, they didn’t adjust back, and they choked away Games 6 and 7 in the NLCS.
The Phillies are 4-12 in 16 playoff games since that fateful Game 3 in Arizona. Last year’s roster was probably the best of the bunch. The 2025 Phillies were a team playing extremely well heading into October, with no real weaknesses anywhere. Their four-game loss was excruciatingly close, and I believe if they’d advanced past the Dodgers, they would have won it all.
But they didn’t, and the specter of all those failures has haunted every player since. It was one of the reasons most fans wanted to see big changes this off-season. Sure, there were questions about the physical abilities of the aging roster but, just as importantly, something needed to be done to snap the collective psychosis of a group that routinely tightened up and succumbed to expectations every year.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have been making big changes to their roster every year. Much of that is due to a limited payroll, so it has been forced upon them in a way it has not Dombrowski and the Phils. It would be understandable if, after seven straight failures, they felt as if there was a steel ceiling above them that they would never break through.
Entering the 2026 playoffs, the Brewers postseason record since ‘23 was 4-10. But with new players on the roster every year, a culture of failure was never really able to set in.
Compare the 2023 Milwaukee squad to the one that is currently rampaging through the league right now.
2023 Brewers:
C – William Contreras 1B – Rowdy Tellez 2B – Brice Turang SS – Willy Adames 3B – Brian Anderson LF – Christian Yelich CF – Joey Wiemer RF – Tyrone Taylor, Sal Frelick, Mark Canha DH – Jesse Winker
SP – Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Colin Rea, Wade Miley, Adrian Houser RP – Devin Williams, Bryse Wilson, Joel Payamps, Hoby Miler, Elvis Peguero
2026 Brewers:
C – William Contreras 1B – Jake Bauers, Andrew Vaughn 2B – Brice Turang SS – Cooper Pratt (21), Joey Ortiz 3B – David Hamilton LF – Jackson Chourio CF – Garrett Mitchell RF – Sal Frelick, Luis Lara DH – Christian Yelich
SP – Jacob Misiorowski, Shane Drohan, Kyle Harrison, Robert Gasser, Logan Henderson, Brandon Sproat RP – Trevor Megill, Chad Patrick, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, Grant Anderson
William Contreras, Brice Turang, and Christian Yelich are the mainstays. Sure, throw Sal Frelick into the mix if you want, too. The entire pitching staff is different, as is the majority of the position player grouping.
This is just in a span of four seasons. The Phillies, meanwhile, have featured much of the same roster during that stretch.
I can’t say for sure that player turnover has helped Milwaukee move past their postseason failures, but it helps to shake up the echo chamber. It’s also much easier to do when no one is signed for more than three seasons at a time. The Phils’ collection of longer contracts limits their flexibility, especially with their highest-priced players also possessing the ability to block trades.
It also helps to have great young players emerge to push the team forward.
The Phillies received an acceptable contribution from center fielder Justin Crawford, a better return (especially at the end) from Andrew Painter, and a surprising one from reliever Alex McFarlane. But that was it. The rest of the roster was returning veterans or castoffs from other organizations brought in on one-year deals. The younger vets that were here — Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm — never materialized into being dependable, consistent players.
Milwaukee, however, saw their home grown stars provide them with elite production this year. Turang led the team in WAR (7.3), while Chourio (4.9) and former first round pick Garrett Mitchell (3.4) were right behind him 2nd and 3rd among position players. Jacob Misiorowski (6.5 WAR) just might be a unanimous selection for NL Cy Young Award this season. These were all positive additions from the farm system, and they added pieces through some smart deals, like Contreras coming from Atlanta as part of a three-team deal and signing Jake Bauers to a one-year, $2.7 million deal this off-season.
Milwaukee also made some dangerous decisions on elite arms that only came as a result of their payroll limitations.
They traded Corbin Burnes at the start of the 2024 season, the final year of his contract. They sent Freddy Peralta to the Mets prior to this season. They dealt their elite closer Devin Williams to the Yankees ahead of the 2025 season and sent All Star closer Josh Hader to the Padres in August of 2022. If the Brewers had the kind of payroll flexibility the Phillies do, perhaps some of those deals don’t happen. They did that once before with former MVP Christian Yelich, who inked a nine-year, $215 million deal before 2020. Six years later, they’re nearing the end of that contract and are struggling to get to the finish line.
Of course, Milwaukee is at the forefront on all of the analytics and data that is available. Eno Sarris of The Athletic outlined all the different ways the Brewers are working to get an edge in these areas. Meanwhile, the Phillies still can’t figure out how to align hitting information coming from their data analysts to the coaches up and down the organization. Long was fired this week in large part because there was a disconnect in the wiring somewhere. The Phillies hope to hire a new hitting coach that will be able to teach and implement this information to hitters at the big league level.
The Brewers are 10 years ahead of the Phils in this department. Perhaps that’s why they had 8 players with at least 250 plate appearances generate an OPS+ over 100. The Phillies had 2.
At his end-of-season news conference on Thursday, it sounded like Dave Dombrowski was a bit more aware of the state of the team’s roster, but didn’t display any real sense of alarm or urgency. He’s right when he says their starting rotation remains a strength and will provide the team with a high floor. He hopes to get the same kind of boost from Aidan Miller and Bryan Rincon that Milwaukee is getting from their home-grown talent.
We remain hopeful he’ll reach into a bag of tricks and find creative solutions to fixing a bad lineup and a bullpen that needs more trustworthy arms. And he’ll have to do it all while working around a work stoppage.
Make no mistake, the Phillies can’t become the Brewers, or the Rays, or any other franchise like them in just one off-season. But they can start by, in private at least, recognizing the severity of the situation.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 11: David Bednar #53 of the New York Yankees celebrates the win over the Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium on August 11, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The New York Yankees defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-1. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Ten of the 26 men on the Yankees’ roster will be free agents after the World Series, and as a team that has a tremendous amount of money already locked up in various players — $177.8 million already allocated to Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón — while caring a little bit about CBT thresholds, the money does matter to the club even if it doesn’t to me. Labor strife on the horizon also weighs in on all these conversations, while most people around baseball think some games will be played in 2027, a possible abbreviated Spring Training or otherwise shortened season means you need players that can ramp up quickly.
Here’s our list of 10 men:
The first question is who gets the Qualifying Offer, a one-year deal at just over $23 million. Trent Grisham got the QO last year and is therefore ineligible this time around, and frankly should be allowed to walk. Backward steps offensively and defensively, along with his inability to be QO’d, makes that an easy decision for me. Contrary to perhaps popular sentiment, Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be given the Qualifying Offer, even if it seems the Yankees are unwilling to extend it.
Jazz can be an incredibly frustrating experience as a fan, but he still put up three and a half wins in what was a down year offensively. Among primary second baseman, that was good enough to be the second best at the position in the American League, and with the Yankees his 10.1 fWAR builds out to a 4.8 win season projected over 600 plate appearances. He’s frustrating to watch, and he’s also a good player!
You have to bake in some IL time and you have to square the circle of second base, where the Yankees seem willing to platoon Anthony Volpe, and there’s no sense in paying a platoon player $23 million. If you QO Jazz, he needs to be your primary option at the keystone.
David Bednar is the other guy that seems worth QO’ing, but committing high dollar amounts to relievers always worries me. The Yankees spent $26.637 million on their bullpen this year, the second-best unit in the game by ERA. In 2019, they spent just a hair over $50 million. Again, I don’t care about their budget, but the team does, and spending $23 million on a guy pitching one inning makes me a little wary of the team’s ability to make moves in-season, even more so when we consider potential changes to the way players are compensated.
At the same time I don’t love the idea of locking Bednar up for the next four or five years. His K-BB rate, my personal favorite single pitching stat, fell six and a half points this year. His four-seam velo dropped almost a full mile per hour, and you don’t really recover velocity at age 32. He’s been very good since coming to the Bronx, and seems to have the mentality to handle pitching in New York, but boy I don’t want to see what he looks like at 36.
The rest of this group is hard to parse. I don’t mind Paul Goldschmidt as a strict platoon bat in theory, but I don’t trust the org to not overplay him, and in two straight seasons we’ve seen serious dropoffs in the second half — going from a 124 wRC+ to an 83 this year, and a 114 to a 76 last year. I think the game has passed the future Hall of Famer by.
Ryan Yarbrough and especially Paul Blackburn should have some offers from multiple teams, and both should garner interest from the Yankees. Yarbrough’s flexibility in going multiple innings and Blackburn’s emergence as a true high-leverage arm both make them good candidates for something like the two-year, $20 million deal Luke Weaver signed a couple years ago, massive upgrades from their current deals.
The rest of the crop I can take or leave.
So, assuming a non-catastrophic resolution to the CBA troubles, we’ve got two, perhaps up to four, of the Yankees’ free agents returning, adding about $65 million to payroll if all four guys come back. I don’t care about the budget but the team does, and that makes me a little worried about them making any other moves.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 26: Brett Wisely #0 of the Atlanta Braves hits a single in the fifth inning against the New York Yankees during a Grapefruit League spring training game at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 26, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves have been making some small and quiet moves with their roster since their elimination in the NLDS and here’s another one. After they selected Danny Young’s contract last week, the Braves have decided to do the same with Brett Wisely as well. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. ended up getting outrighted to Triple-A Gwinnett as a corresponding move so they made a decision on him at some point without publicizing it. All of this was found on the Braves’ transaction page and was reported initially by Harrison Smajovits of Atlanta Braves on SI.
– Brett Wisely was selected to the MLB roster – DaShawn Keirsey Jr. was outrighted to Triple-A – Luke Williams elected free agency after being outrighted to Triple-A
Wisely didn’t make any appearances with the Braves at the big league level in 2026 as he ended up playing 125 games for the Gwinnett Stripers this season. He had himself a pretty solid year at the plate, as he hit .281/.399/.436 with 11 home runs and 127 wRC+ at the Triple-A level last season. That’s to say that I’d imagine that the Braves aren’t bringing him up at this point in the offseason because they figure that he’s part of their big league plans for 2027.
Wisely has never really been able to translate his Triple-A success to big league success, so I’m guessing that the Braves figure that this is a good way to make sure that they’ll keep their options open with him being used in another transaction down the road, since putting the veteran on the 40-man roster means that he won’t be able to use his rights as a minor league vet to elect free agency. Wisely’s last stint with the big league Braves lasted all of 4 games and nine plate appearances in 2025, in case you’re wondering whether or not there’s really something here.
Either way, it’s a totally procedural move that gives the Braves a chance to do something with Wisely from a transactional standpoint going forward during the offseason without potentially losing him for completely nothing. We’ll see how it goes, though.
Despite his injury crisis this year, and the limitations it left him with in the playoffs, the two-way star still wants to be a two-way player again next season.
“Yes, definitely,” Ohtani said through interpreter Will Ireton on Thursday night, when asked if he intended to return to pitching in 2027. “And [I’m] looking forward to having a better season next year.”
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) celebrates after hitting a three-run home run in the second inning during game four of the MLB National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. Caroline Brehman/UPI/Shutterstock
In his attempt to return to a full-time two-way role for the first time since 2023, the four-time MVP ended up getting hurt, being shut down as a pitcher after only 85 innings, and slumping mightily at the plate for much of the playoffs while trying to manage his far-less-than-100% health.
His October limitations proved costly to the Dodgers.
On Thursday night, he indicated it’s possible he might need to have offseason surgery, as well; though he did not specify if it would be for his inflamed left knee, ailing right arm, some other unknown issue, or potentially all of the above.
“Hard to tell at this point,” Ohtani said. “It’s something that’s going to be analyzed, discussed over the offseason, and see if that’s a viable thing to do.”
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani watches from the dugout during the ninth inning of Game 4 of baseball’s National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday, Oct. 16, 2026, in Los Angeles. AP Photo/Gregory Bull
And yet, the 32-year-old didn’t waver in his desire to continue to both hit and pitch moving forward.
“I haven’t been able to really come to grip in terms of what I’ve learned overall this season,” he said. “It’s something that I’m going to kind of go back to the drawing board in terms of treatment, training program, and see what I can come up with for next season.”
The question, of course, is not whether Ohtani can still be dominant in his two dueling roles. This year, he still batted .275 with 30 home runs and 81 RBIs as a hitter, while going 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA in 14 pitching starts.
The problem was, after his knee started barking in June, and his arm became increasingly bothersome from July onward, he wasn’t able to make much of an impact on the mound or in the batter’s box.
His final pitching start came on July 3, with repeated attempts to build back up scuttled by physical setbacks.
His form at the plate dipped drastically over the final two months of the regular season, requiring an injured list stint in September that did little to get him back to himself.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani strikes out as Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras catches the ball during the first inning of Game 4 of baseball’s National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers in Los Angeles, Friday, Oct. 16, 2026. AP Photo/Ashley Landis
In the playoffs, Ohtani hit just .192. Before his three-run homer in Game 4 of the NLCS, he didn’t have an extra-base hit or an RBI.
Because of all that, there was speculation the Dodgers might try to manage him differently next year –– and, if not ask him to give up on pitching, try to moderate his workload in a way that won’t be so taxing on his body.
If anything, however, Ohtani on Thursday night seemed to bemoan the fact he didn’t pitch more this year, noting how he wasn’t available for the postseason rotation.
“Not quite satisfied with how things shaped up on the pitching side,” he said.
What all that means for 2027 remains unclear –– especially with the threat of a looming lockout and potential offseason recovery process.
The only thing Ohtani knows for sure: He still wants to continue in his two-way role.
CLEVELAND — Shawn Armstrong will be the opener for Cleveland and Tampa Bay will start Nick Martinez in Game 4 of the AL Championship Series.
The Guardians have a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series after Petey Halpin’s two-run homer propelled them to a 3-2 victory in Game 3.
Both teams waited to announce their pitching plans because of the weather. It is supposed to rain in Cleveland, but there is a window between 8-11 p.m. ET that could allow them to get the game played.
The start time also was moved back two hours to 8 p.m. ET after the Milwaukee Brewers swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series.
An ALCS game has not been postponed since 2019, when the New York Yankees hosted the Houston Astros.
This will be Armstrong’s fifth appearance this postseason in what will be a bullpen game for Cleveland. The right-hander has allowed only one hit in 5 1/3 innings with five strikeouts.
Armstrong thought his season was done in late July when he suffered a calf strain, but he returned during the final week of the regular season.
Armstrong was drafted by Cleveland in the 18th round in 2011 and made his big-league debut four years later. He was traded to Seattle in 2017 and spent time with four other organizations, including Tampa Bay, before signing with Cleveland this season.
“I think I said it to (Erik) Sabrowski, whenever we were standing in the outfield in Game 2 in Tampa — obviously I played here, I got drafted here, coming back here and being able to be in this situation is — words can’t describe it,” Armstrong said before Game 3.
Martinez started Game 3 of the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees. He went 3 2/3 innings, allowing two runs on five hits with a walk and three strikeouts. The right-hander went 15-6 during the regular season and was sixth in the AL with a 3.10 ERA. He was third in the AL with 26 starts where he allowed three runs or fewer.
“It’s just like my starts throughout the year; it’s going to be a dogfight going in, just to see how many outs I can get for this team, it’s important,” he said.
Sep 18, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies left fielder Jake McCarthy (31) safely steals second against Seattle Mariners second baseman Cole Young (2) in the fourth inning at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Over the years, there have been many organizations that have provided a model that Colorado could try to emulate, including small-market teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers. Whether it’s how to thrive with a smaller payroll, how to use data, strategies and technology, or how to build a roster, there are many great ideas out there.
On Oct. 14, The Athletic’s Eno Saris provided more grist for the Colorado mill, going on a deep dive into the Rays and Brewers and laying out some interesting approaches both teams have taken to achieve success over the years to end up deep in the postseason in 2026. In his piece titled “Rays, Brewers always outperform expectations. These ‘Moneyball’-like edges are the key,” Sarris explores numerous factors in detail: types of technology used, data, pitch framing, catcher defense, creative pitching strategies, roster height, outfield route running, pitch design innovation and more.
Sarris’ analysis is loaded with ideas to look at throughout the offseason, especially considering the Rockies are led by the Moneyballer himself — president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta.
The Rockies are trying to implement, have yet to try, or aren’t succeeding at many of Sarris’ points; however, there are also some areas in which the Rockies are showing growth. Opting for a positive take in this first analysis — knowing there will also be lots of areas for improvement — I figured I’d start with one of Sarris’ points on the value of emphasizing contact and speed.
Sarris starts this section out by saying,
Everything old is new again. As the league’s strikeout rate has climbed and teams have focused on power, the speedy slap hitter has largely gone out of style. Well, the Rays had the best strikeout rate in baseball this year, and were also second in steals, while the Brewers were fourth in steals and featured five or six important hitters with great contact rates, depending on how you count.
Let’s bring the numbers and the Rockies into that.
Team
2026 K% (Rank)
2025 K% (Rank)
2026 SB (Rank)
2025 SB (Rank)
2026 SB Success (Rank)
2025 SB Success (Rank)
Rays
18.8% (No. 1)
23.1% (No. 22)
164 (No. 2)
194 (No. 1)
75.8% (No. 18)
80.2% (No. 7)
Brewers
22% (No. 17)
20.3% (No. 5)
162 (No. 5)
164 (No. 2)
75.1% (No. 19)
75.6% (No. 23)
Rockies
22.8% (No. 21)
25.9% (No. 29)
109 (No. 13)
87 (No. 23)
72.7% (No. 25)
68.5% (No. 30)
The Rays are the best at not striking out. The Brewers? No so much. The Rockies? They’re getting better.
Colorado went from striking out 25.9% of the time in 2025, which was the second-worst in MLB, to striking out 22.8% of the time this season. The better plate discipline bumped the Rockies from No. 29 to No. 21, showing that they are on the right track.
The Brewers rank No. 17 in strikeout rate, just four spots ahead of Colorado, but they also have significantly better pitching than the Rockies. Colorado has to bank on putting the ball in play more, having more runners and getting them to score by any means necessary to help combat the runs we know the pitching staff will surrender.
That’s where base running came in.
The Rockies went from being atrocious at stealing bases in 2025 to a little above average in 2026. While the numbers aren’t high, Colorado did jump from No. 23 in stolen bases with 87 in 2025 to No. 13 with 109 in 2026. That’s largely due to Jake McCarthy’s 32 steals, which were the most by a single Rockie in a season since 2015 when Charlie Blackmon swiped 43 bags. While still far behind the Rays (164) and Brewers (162), that’s a big jump in one season.
Sarris explains a key stolen base success rate that each team should be aiming for:
The numbers say that every team should be stealing more. Depending on how many outs there are, the break-even point in terms of the value of that extra base put against the value of the out is around a 70-75 percent success rate. If you are successful less often, you’re costing your team too many outs for the value of getting to second. If you are successful more often than that, you’re leaving potential extra bases on the table and being too careful.
The Rockies were 72.7% effective when trying to steal bases in 2026, which is more than 4% better than in 2025. Both the Rays and Brewers are above 75%. Considering again that the Rockies need to score more than the average team to win games, they need another jump in their success rates in 2027 to keep trending in the right direction. They will also need to steal a lot more often to ever grow their totals to the likes of the Rays and Brewers, which stole 55 and 53 more bases, respectively, than the Rockies last season.
The takeaways — at least in these two areas — are simple: Put the ball in play more and get caught stealing less, while trying to steal more. It’s easier said than done, but at least the Rockies are making progress.
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 23: Brandon Lowe #5 of the Pittsburgh Pirates watches his hit go for a solo home run during the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on September 23, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe was a massive boost for the team in his first season with the Bucs. After being acquired in a three-team trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros in the offseason, Lowe had arguably the best statistical season of his career in 2026.
Lowe had a batting average of .260, with 35 home runs and 96 runs batted in. He posted a career-high 5.4 wins above replacement in 150 games with the team. This makes him one of the top free agents on the open market, and the Pirates are going to have to pay up if they want to keep him.
“He’ll hit the open market as one of the most highly coveted position players available,” Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com wrote. “(Pirates general manager Ben) Cherington described the return of Lowe as a ‘great outcome if he’s a Pirate next year.’ But it will cost a pretty penny, likely a sizable increase from the $11.5 million he earned in 2026, and Lowe, at 32 years old, could find interest in a longer-term deal.”
The Pirates have the money to spend on Lowe, but given their spending habits over the last couple of years, it remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh would invest in him for a long period of time.
BD community, how do you feel about Lowe entering free agency this offseason? How much should the Pirates be willing to pay to keep him in Pittsburgh? Let us know in the comments section below.
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 14: Jake Bauers #9 of the Milwaukee Brewers rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the seventh inning during Game Three of the National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Nicole Vasquez/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Milwaukee Brewers are the 2026 National League champions. That’s objectively a neat and fun thing for sports fans. The Brewers only went to the playoffs twice in their first 39 years of existence, and while they have been a playoff staple since 2018, they’ve never made it to the Fall Classic. They’ve never won the World Series, either. They will get a chance to do so soon.
But make no mistake—they’ve earned it. The Brewers won 103 regular season games and swept their NLCS opponents, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were the only other team in baseball to notch 100 victories.
That last part is particularly important. In the last few years, the Dodgers have overtaken the New York Yankees as Major League Baseball’s #1 bad guys. Prior to this season, they had been to five of the previous nine World Series and had come away with three wins, including back-to-back wins in 2024 and 2025. They’ve done so by drafting and developing well, sure, but also by brazenly outspending everybody and becoming the top destination for top-tier Japanese talent. Other teams literally can’t compete the same way.
Fans have noticed, and the grumblings have peaked at the same time as small market team ownership have grumbled. The owners, having sought a salary cap for years, have smelled blood in the water and have pushed hard for a salary cap as the previous collective bargaining agreement comes to a close.
One set of playoff games doesn’t mean everything, and both sides know this. But humans are influenced by the most recent events, and this year’s playoffs kicked off with some heavy hitters. The Dodgers ranked first overall with a $412 million payroll. The Yankees ranked third, with a $310 million payroll. Philadelphia, fourth, spent $290 million. Atlanta, sixth, spent $259 million. The Cubs, seventh, spent $254 million. The Astros, eighth, spent $240 million. The Padres, ninth, spent $219 million. The Red Sox, 11th, were at $203 million. In other words, only three of the top 11 highest MLB payrolls missed the playoffs.
There were a lot of potential matchups that could have heavily contributed to the argument for a salary cap. A Yankees-Dodgers rematch was possible. We could have gotten a Red Sox-Phillies series, or an Astros-Braves series. And yet, we got none of those things—we got the Brewers (19th in overall payroll at $142 million) spiking the Dodgers into oblivion on the National League side, with the Cleveland Guardians (29th, $87 million) and Tampa Bay Rays (28th, $90 million) duking it out in the American League. The Dodgers and New York Mets both spent more in payroll than those three teams combined.
In such a public industry, the CBA negotiations are a public relations battle. If any of the above scenarios had happened, the league could have simply shrugged and said, “Look at these big market teams crowding out the few small market teams. We need a salary cap to stop this from happening.” I think this would have been especially true if the Dodgers had put together a threepeat. None of the player arguments could have cut through those optics.
And yet, the one scenario that could have significantly defused momentum for a salary cap has played out: the Dodgers were sent home in embarrassing fashion, both the ALCS and NLCS featured small-market teams, and the World Series will be a small-market showdown.
This isn’t the perfect outcome for the players, because if, say, the $87 million payroll, 85-win Guardians come out victoriously then that isn’t exactly a great argument that owners should bother trying to spend to their capacity on player salaries. We could still get a salary cap, and it still might even be the right call. But no matter how the World Series ends, the players can point to it all winter and say that the league doesn’t need a salary cap for small market teams to succeed.
PHILADELPHIA — Trea Turner has seven years left on his $300 million contract with the Phillies.
He has through about spring training to get his defense together and remain Philadelphia’s starting shortstop.
A year after Dave Dombrowski put Bryce Harper on blast, the top Phillies executive turned his biting criticism toward Turner.
The 33-year-old Turner had perhaps the worst season of his career — he hit .242 with a .675 OPS with a league-worst 21 errors at shortstop — and Dombrowski warned a position change could be on deck if Turner fails to regain his form as even an average fielding shortstop.
No manufactured standing ovation could save Turner from the outfield.
“From a defensive perspective we were very clear. He knows he has to be better at shortstop,” said Dombrowski, the longtime president of baseball operations. “I told him it’s really mandatory that it’s like that.”
Turner and Dombrowski met at Citizens Bank Park to discuss the shortstop’s fate — well, shortstop for now — and the changes Turner needed to make in the field and at the plate if he wanted to remain at his favorite position and near the top of the order in 2027.
“He’s determined to show us he can play it,” Dombrowski said. “I said, you have to show it. You cannot play shortstop like you did defensively in ’26 going to ’27.”
Turner went 1 for 10 in the playoffs when the Phillies lost in three games to the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card Series.
To paraphrase Dombrowski, Turner no longer is elite.
The Phillies’ core starters of Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have made five straight playoff appearances — including a loss to the Houston Astros in the 2022 World Series — and averaged 91 wins per year during that stretch.
Turner joined the Phillies in 2023.
The Phillies just haven’t won the World Series over that span.
Turner took the blame for the Phillies’ latest postseason failure and conceded his season-long struggles played a factor in another early October exit for the franchise.
“I’ve got a lot of work to do,” Turner said after Game 3. “Kind of go over everything and just figure out as much as I can. Find answers. See what I did bad. But I feel like this year is the biggest question mark for me offensively in a long time. I’ve got to figure that out. So I definitely have a lot of work to do there.”
The Phillies have three potential question marks in the outfield.
Harper has been the regular first baseman and will return to first base next season after he played the final two months in right field when the Phillies acquired three-time batting champion Luis Arraez. Arraez is a free agent and unlikely to return.
Brandon Marsh actually started for the NL All-Star team before a second-half collapse that included a .183 batting average (155th out of 156 qualified hitters) and a .490 OPS (156th). His on-base percentage after July 1 was an anemic .250 and he’s destined to revert to a platoon player.
Justin Crawford had a solid rookie season, and Derek Hill and Bryan De La Cruz weren’t horrible but aren’t everyday players in Philadelphia.
Turner might end up in the outfield whether he wants to play there or not.
“He prefers the infield,” Dombrowski said. “He’s a good athlete. I think he can adjust appropriately and we’ll see what happens.”
The Phillies clearly expect Turner to regain the form he had in 2025, when he led the NL in hitting and only made eight errors.
“It’s up to him to show us that he can do it,” Dombrowski said. “We’ll see what happens. But we’ll have fallback opportunities, and some of them may come from the young players that we have.”
Options. The Phillies have them in the infield, especially if they let slugging third baseman Alec Bohm walk in free agency.
Bryson Stott, a stout second baseman who played at third base following the Phillies’ trade deadline defensive shuffle, could move to shortstop.
Dombrowski did not hold back from praising top minor league infield prospects Aidan Miller and Bryan Rincon. Miller is cleared to play and ready to compete for a spot on the roster after he missed most of 2026 with a back injury. He is the Phillies’ No. 2 and MLB’s No. 59 overall prospect.
Turner has $190 million left on his contract and a no-trade clause which makes him all but immovable in the trade market. With a work stoppage almost certain in December, Turner should have many months ahead to work on defensive drills. Work on his swing. Work on any small detail he thinks will help him regain his All-Star form in 2027.
Or else.
“The reason we signed him in the beginning compared to some others, not only was he a good player, but we thought he had the ability to continue to be a good player for a long time here,” Dombrowski said.
But it wasn’t enough to propel Los Angeles to a win, nor did it erase the brutal performance Ohtani produced not just during this NLCS sweep but throughout the postseason.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani walks to the dugout after striking out during the seventh inning of Game 4 of baseball’s National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026, in Los Angeles. AP Photo/Gregory Bull
“The Brewers were overall strong, and a very good team. And [they] really exposed parts of me as a player, and got to give some credit to that,” Ohtani said in translated English, per SportsNet LA.
Ohtani certainly looked exposed throughout the series, aside from that one swing in the second inning on Thursday night.
Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani addressed the media after being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS. (X/@SportsNetLA).
He had three hits and six strikeouts during the four-game series, producing a .231 batting average and a .795 OPS.
Throughout the postseason, Ohtani produced a .192 average, a .631 OPS, and 10 strikeouts compared to five hits. He also didn’t pitch during the postseason, so he wasn’t able to negate his mediocre hitting with success on the mound.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani plays during Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. CHRIS TORRES/EPA/Shutterstock
Ohtani is the world’s best baseball player. And even the world’s best baseball player is liable to face a slump sometimes.
It just came at the worst possible time for Los Angeles. His ailments likely did not help the situation, either.
But Ohtani’s comment convey that the Brewers managed to make matters even worse.
LOS ANGELES — Jake Bauers went home to Southern California and walked away with an MVP trophy.
Bauers hit a two-run double in the fourth inning of Game 4 to begin Milwaukee’s comeback, and the Brewers rallied for a 6-4 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers that completed a four-game sweep in the National League Championship Series.
The 31-year-old first baseman also drew a walk that forced home the tying run in the fifth to help Milwaukee advance to the World Series for the first time in 44 years.
“There was never a doubt,” Bauers said. “There was never a doubt in that dugout what was going to happen tonight. We knew we were going to win that game.”
Bauers was selected the NLCS MVP after going 4 for 14 (.286) with a home run and six RBIs in the series. He worked three walks and finished with a .983 OPS.
Bauers was born in Newport Beach and went to Marina High School in Huntington Beach about 40 miles south of Dodger Stadium.
If performing at his best in front of family and friends was rewarding, seeing Los Angeles in the playoffs for the second consecutive season heightened his senses. Bauers learned something from how the Dodgers reacted when they wiped out Milwaukee in the 2025 NLCS on the way to their second straight World Series title.
“Watching the way they carried themselves on the field after sweeping us last year was a little bit eye-opening,” Bauers said. “We won the (NLDS) against the Cubs, and I think we kind of celebrated like that was something.
“Those guys swept us, they sent us home, and you would have thought it was a handshake line at a spring training game. That’s something that I carried with me. That’s something that I remembered. Yeah, it was a little bit of motivation to just say, we’ve got to keep going until there’s not another game left to play.”
It’s not just in the playoffs that Bauers has shined. Earning consistent playing time from Brewers manager Pat Murphy in his seventh major league season, Bauers set career highs across the board with a .266 batting average, .874 OPS, 26 home runs and 86 RBIs.
The left-handed-hitting Bauers also made his mark in Games 2 and 3 of the NLCS with long plate appearances. His 12-pitch walk against Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2 came just before a two-run single by Christian Yelich that gave Milwaukee the lead in a back-and-forth 7-4 win.
Bauers also hit a go-ahead homer off two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to end an 11-pitch at-bat in a 6-2 victory in Game 3 at Los Angeles.
“Just trying to be ready for the moment, man,” Bauers said. “Murph has been talking about it all year. You have to meet the game halfway and be ready, and whatever happens after that is whatever happens.”
SEATTLE, WA - JUNE 02: Luke Raley #20 of the Seattle Mariners takes batting practice prior to the game between the New York Mets and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday, June 2, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Eric Hiller/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Mariners have some decisions to make.
MLB Trade Rumors released its arbitration projections earlier this month. The Mariners have 15 players eligible for arbitration. If the Mariners offered contracts to each arbitration-eligible player, they would add an estimated $58.3 million to their payroll in 2027. They could also release some of these players and avoid paying their salary, freeing up room in the budget to pursue other players in trades or free agency. That dynamic makes arbitration a notable task each offseason, as it can provide a glimpse into how the Mariners view their players and roster.
A player begins their career on a rookie contract that pays the league minimum, roughly $780,000 per year. They become eligible for arbitration once they reach three years of service time. They maintain that eligibility until reaching free agency after six years of service time. (There are, of course, exceptions.) The structure gives established players a chance to earn more money for good performance — Tarik Skubal earned a record $32 million in arbitration in 2026 — and it allows teams to maintain significant control over both their player and their budget.
Arbitration tends to be the best bang for a team’s buck, as John Stanton alluded to in a recent interview with the Seattle Times. A player has to literally earn a higher wage in the preceding season, reducing risk to teams in comparison to free agency, where contracts are guaranteed. Arbitration-eligible players also don’t have the ability to negotiate their wage on the open market, effectively capping their earning potential. Teams can also release these players without recourse, or trade these players to earn value back. That’s why some teams, like the Rays and Brewers, tend to operate with a ruthless, actuarial approach to their arbitration-eligible players, hoping to exploit inefficiencies in the market and accumulate value at the margins. Basically, arbitration is one of the key drivers in the baseball economy, ensuring low-budget teams can compete and turn a profit while doing so.
Teams have until some time in January to reach an agreement with their arbitration-eligible players. If they don’t, both sides go to, you know, arbitration, where a bunch of lawyers fist fight over that players value until another lawyer decides their salary. How that process will work this year is unclear with the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire in December. Who knows, maybe everyone will get paid in v-bucks come March.
This is as good a time as any to check in on the Mariners payroll. At the moment, it’s about $60 million in guaranteed contracts, according to Darren Gossler’s payroll spreadsheet. If they were to give the estimated contact to each of their arbitration eligible players, that would put their payroll at about $120 million for 2027. That’s roughly where it’s been at the beginning of the last few offseasons.
The $120M figure doesn’t include team options for Andrés Muñoz or Victor Robles. Assuming they opt for the former and opt against the latter, that brings their payroll closer to $130M. We can see last year, they had a payroll of about $173 million on Opening Day (though $9 million of that was a signing bonus for Colt Emerson). That’s to say, the Mariners, barring massive upheaval in the final CBA, will likely start the season with a payroll between $150 million and $170 million, giving them something close to $20-40 million to spend this offseason.
That’s… not a lot, given how many holes existed on this roster at the end of last year. They need to find a third baseman and an outfielder and some help in the bullpen. It’s possible they will cut salary by releasing arbitration-eligible players, but as I discuss below, there aren’t a lot of obvious choices.
The Locks
Logan Gilbert (5.144): $15.4MM George Kirby (4.151): $9.8MM Bryan Woo (3.121): $5.2MM Dominic Canzone (3.014): $3MM
The Mariners aren’t going to cut any of these players. Sure, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby struggled in 2026, but as far as contracts go, these are quite friendly for starting pitchers with tip-top potential. It’s more likely either or both exceed their “value” on the $/WAR scale by two or three times than fall short.
Also, note how little Bryan Woo is expected to make in 2027. He was the eighth best pitcher in the majors by fWAR the last two seasons. Jacob deGrom was ninth, and is set to make $37 million next year (about seven times more than Woo).
The Former Locks
Bryce Miller (3.153): $3.9MM (Mariners hold a $6.075MM option with $15K buyout) Gabe Speier (5.000): $3.3MM Matt Brash (4.121): $1.8MM
There was a time when it would have been unconscionable for the Mariners to willingly let these players go. Perhaps that time is still now… yeah, it’s probably still now. The Mariners simply don’t have enough pitching to give up on any talented but flawed arms, is probably the correct framing for this group.
Gabe Speier regressed in every way in 2026, and he’s set to make kind of a lot for a reliever in a Low Budget Org — if they’re going to cut one of these three, I think it’s Speier. But he got a lot better in the second half, and it’s probably worth seeing what’s left in the tank in his age-32 season. Matt Brash would normally be an obvious choice to cut, given he’s only thrown 64 innings the last three seasons, but he’s been dominant during his rare, healthy stretches.
Had Bryce Miller pitched better in 2026, I would have bothered to figure out how his contract works. But I don’t care about to think any more about Miller at the moment. I assume the Mariners will hold on to him, and I assume they’ll try to pay him as little as possible.
Too New To Cut
Brendan Donovan (5.000): $6.1MM Jose A. Ferrer (3.094): $1.6MM
Neither of these players had good years, but cutting them now would be admitting defeat, and there is no greater sin.
The Meat
Luke Raley (4.106): $3.1MM Eduard Bazardo (3.118): $1.5MM Michael Rucker (3.069): $800K Cooper Criswell (2.143): $900K Carlos Vargas (2.140): $800K
These are the fellas the team is discussing as you are reading this.
Luke Raley I think is the most interesting name on the entire list. He’s a 32-year-old corner outfielder — one of the worst defenders in the league — who’s spent more time on the injured list the last two years than on the field. He’s redundant on the roster, and has posted a total of 0.5 fWAR since 2025. Generally, I would say this seems like an obvious cut, and that’s probably still the case. But Raley happened to post a 215 wRC+ in May, as one of the 10 best months for a Mariner this century. The ceiling for Raley when healthy is very, very, high, and it’s unlikely they can find that ceiling elsewhere on the market. Whether the Mariners think his ceiling is worth the lack of versatility (and availability), well, that’s why Arb Watch is a fun offseason chore.
Then there’s the relievers. I could see the Mariners cutting all four of them. I could see them holding onto all four of them. I really don’t know. Again, I don’t think the org is really in a position to be picky about pitching at this point, and each of these relievers has something to offer.
Eduard Bazardo I think is the easiest cut. He’s set to make the most of the group, and he posted a 6.58 ERA and 7.29 FIP in the second half. The Mariners really wore him down the last two years, and I’m not sure I expect much in his age-32 season. But there’s a reason they called his number so often the last two seasons, and it’s hard to imagine this bullpen without Everyday Eddie.
Michael Rucker might be new Bazardo in that sense. The team seemed to view him as Mr. Whoopsies Somebody Has To Pitch this year, sticking him in the fifth-to-seventh inning cleanup role. Rucker got a bad rap because a lot of runs scored while he was pitching, and some of those runs came at times when fans wanted a different reliever in the game — he was an unwitting political football in The Dan Wilson Conspiracy. But Rucker also posted a 3.90 FIP, 3.91 xERA, and struck out 27% of batters faced. He has a big lively fastball with great shape, and a big sweeping curveball that misses bats. He scores well on the all the Pitching models. And for essentially the league minimum? Yeah, I don’t think the Mariners are going to do much better in the pile.
Cooper Criswell is interesting because he also looks pretty good by FIP and xERA (and even regular ERA). He was a solid low leverage guy, though missed a couple months with a pectoral strain that limited his usefulness. Criswell doesn’t strikeout batters and his stuff isn’t impressive, but he has a funky arm slot and hits his spots and manages contact well enough. Criswell’s greatest asset in the past was his ability cover a swingman role, which the Mariners generally don’t need, so I could see being easier to cut than someone like Rucker, who could conceivably develop into a high-leverage arm. But again, at the league minimum, Criswell seems like a decent option for a team not really in the position to be choosy in the bullpen.
Carlos Vargas… I have no idea. He was one of the worst pitchers in the majors in 2025, largely because he ran a minuscule strikeout rate and a 56% groundball rate in front of an awful infield defense. He then spent most of 2026 on the injured list with a lat strain. His numbers were a little more encouraging after the return, but he’s yet to turn his big-time stuff into whiffs and success. If the Mariners keep him, it’s because the league minimum is a bargain for a reliever with infinite potential. If they cut him, well, it’s because he’s Carlos Vargas.
NEW YORK - CIRCA 1986: Broadcaster and former baseball player Tim McCarver talks on the air prior to the start of a Major League Baseball game circa 1986 at Shea Stadium in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Born James Timothy McCarver on the banks of the mighty Mississippi River in Memphis, Tennessee, few would have ever dreamt up the life McCarver would go on to live. That life included winning two World Series as a player and calling 23 more as a broadcaster, a record at the time of his retirement. With a career in baseball stretching over four decades, it is only fitting that McCarver eventually found his way into a role with the most successful baseball organization of all time.
James Timothy McCarver Born: October 16, 1941 (Memphis, TN) Died: February 16, 2023 (Memphis, TN) Yankees Tenure: 1999-2001 (broadcaster)
Memphis was home for McCarver, and he attended Christian Brothers High School. While growing up, he played baseball, basketball, and football. McCarver was good enough at football to earn scholarship interest from Tennessee and Notre Dame. However, the 17-year-old turned down college to sign a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1959. The Yankees were also interested in him before the Cardinals were able to ink the deal.
The Cardinals did not handle the young catcher with kid gloves. After the young left-handed hitter posted a .360 average over 275 at-bats in the Midwest League, he was promoted to Triple-A Rochester of the International League. The kid then hit .357 in 70 at-bats. The Cardinals were impressed enough that they made the 17-year-old a September call-up. In a small sample size, he collected four hits in 24 at-bats while being about 11 years younger than the average player in the league.
Knowing that the prospect needed more seasoning, the Cardinals assigned McCarver to their Double-A team in Memphis to start the 1960 season. He batted .347 there and earned another late-season call-up to the big league club. He spent much of 1961 in the minors before another promotion to St. Louis, but 1962 was different. McCarver spent the entire season with the Triple-A Atlanta Crackers, getting one last year of development before sticking with the Cardinals for good.
McCarver was done with the minors after a trade opened up the starting catcher position for him in 1963. In his first full season in the show, McCarver slashed .289/.333/.383 while starting 108 games behind the dish. He followed that up in 1964 with another impressive slash line of .288/.343/.400 as the Cardinals won the National League pennant.
The Fall Classic that year featured the Yankees. McCarver burned New York, hitting .478 with 11 hits in 23 at-bats. He also drove in five runs and scored four more, including a three-run homer in the top of the 10th inning of Game 5 that helped the Cardinals secure a 5-2 victory. St. Louis won the series in seven games, and McCarver stole home in Game 7 to help secure the championship.
That performance kicked off the best run of McCarver’s career. He made his only two All-Star teams during the 1966 and 1967 seasons. The Cardinals won the pennant again in 1967, and though McCarver did not perform as well as he had against the Yankees, he helped his team beat the Red Sox in seven games. St. Louis reached the World Series again in 1968, but this time fell to the Tigers in seven games.
The summer of 1969 marked the end of McCarver’s first run as a Cardinal, as he was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies after the season. This kicked off a two-and-a-half-year run before the Phillies traded McCarver to the Expos midway through the 1972 season. Following that brief stint north of the border, he was traded back to St. Louis for the 1973 season. He appeared in 130 games, with 77 of them at first base instead of behind the plate.
A full-fledged journeyman by this point, McCarver started the 1974 season under the Arch in St. Louis before being purchased by the Red Sox. In 1974 and 1975, McCarver appeared in 23 games for Boston before being released. After his release from Beantown, McCarver signed back with the Phillies, where he would ride out the last six years of his career as a backup catcher and left-handed pinch hitter off the bench.
In 1980, McCarver started a new job in the Phillies’ broadcast booth while still playing for the club. He returned to the field that September to help the team finish out the season. Then, after 21 seasons, McCarver finally hung up his cleats for good. However, the microphone he picked up decided to stick around.
Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, McCarver called games for the Phillies and Mets. During this time, his talent in the booth earned him national broadcasts as well. McCarver called his first World Series in 1985 and went on to set a record for World Series broadcasts by a color analyst. McCarver won three national Emmy Awards for his work as a sportscaster and co-hosted the primetime coverage of the 1992 Winter Olympics alongside Paula Zahn.
McCarver finally got to the Yankees in 1999 as a commentator for the team’s local broadcasts. Just like in his playing days, McCarver got to experience the Yankees winning two rings as the team was on the back end of its late-1990s dynasty. Perhaps his most famous call came when he was in the booth with Bobby Murcer and Suzyn Waldman for David Cone’s improbable perfect game on Yogi Berra Day in 1999.
In what many have called prophecy, he also suggested that bringing the infield in during the 2001 World Series might be the wrong call. We all remember how that went moments later.
After his Yankees stint ended, McCarver moved to San Francisco to keep calling games for the Giants. He remained a full-time national broadcaster, working All-Star Games and World Series alongside Joe Buck until retiring from Fox in 2013. The year before he retired, he was honored by the National Baseball Hall of Fame for his long career in television when he won the 2012 Ford C. Frick Award.
McCarver continued working part-time with the Cardinals, calling around 30 games a year. He stepped away from those broadcasts after the 2019 season, though he did not officially retire until 2022. In case you lost count, McCarver played parts of 21 seasons in the majors and spent more than 30 years in the broadcast booth. He passed away in February 2023.
Happy birthday, Tim!
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 24: Luis Arraez #4 of the Philadelphia Phillies runs to first base during a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park on September 24, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A few weeks back, I was on vacation in Tokyo. On a bright, sunny day, I wandered through a garden on the terrace of a city government building, gazing out at the city below. As I left the garden, I passed by the office for foreign resident business, where people were lined up in front of a sign labeled “health insurance forms”. For a moment, I thought about how much I wished I had reason to be there, how nice it would be to set up a new life in Tokyo, surrounded by the bullet trains, the charming kissaten coffee shops, the bright lights and billboards.
Then I realized I was fantasizing about filling out health insurance paperwork.
The trade deadline is sort of like that. You get starry-eyed, thinking of the futures that could be, the way that new piece could be the piece, slotting in perfectly. You don’t think as much about the little frustrations, the disappointments, the awkward fits. But then the trades are made, and the new player arrives, and the games are played, and you have no choice but to see the reality of what the new guy brings to the table. Luis Arraez brought a great attitude and an appealingly old-school style to Philadelphia, what he ended up bringing to the Phillies offense wasn’t quite what had been hoped for.
Arraez is not like a box of chocolates: you know what exactly you’re going to get. Exceptional batting average, not a lot of power, very few walks, very few strikeouts. He’s a true unicorn in the baseball world; nobody else is really doing what he does. San Francisco’s season had gone badly awry by the time the deadline arrived, but Arraez had been a bright point: slashing .324/.360/.440, with a wRC+ of 121, stealing ten bases, and providing surprisingly solid defense at the keystone, he lead the Giants with 3.8 fWAR at the halfway point. To the Phillies, dead last in OBP at the deadline, a high-average machine like Arraez promised not only an additional piece, but a piece who could play an entirely different game, offering relief from the rollercoaster that is the three true outcomes: whether the Phillies’ big sluggers were on a hot streak or sliding into a slump, Arraez would reliably be doing his thing. And with just three of the Phillies regulars (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott) serving as above-average bats by wRC+ at the trade deadline, the addition of another bat is just what the doctor ordered.
At first, Arraez’ tenure seemed to look much like what the optimists had imagined: seven hits in his first five games in Phillies red. He posted the second-best batting average on the team during his tenure. But that being said…
What went wrong
.278 isn’t a bad batting average in a vacuum, but it is a bad average for Arraez. With the Giants, he had hit .324. Arraez’ whole game is high-average, low-power; take away some of that average, and his whole approach stops working. Arraez essentially never strikes out, so that downturn in average was driven by a decline in BABIP: .327 with the Giants, .273 with the Phillies. By wRC+ (82) he was a well-below average hitter with the Phillies. With his power remaining scanty and his batting average taking a serious downturn, he had little impact on a Phillies offense that really could have used the boost. How much of that poor performance in Philadelphia was bad BABIP luck, and how much of it was something more? While that question does matter for the decision of whether or not to resign him, it doesn’t matter much for an evaluation of how much he contributed to the 2026 Phillies.
His addition required the Phillies to rearrange their defensive positioning, with Alec Bohm, Bryson Stottt, and Bryce Harper all moving around to less familiar positions (or, in Harper’s case, a familiar position from bygone days). Having struggled mightily with defense prior to the changes, the Phillies couldn’t really afford any wobbling resulting from the position change; the misjudged fly ball that flew over Harper’s head in game two of the Wild Card series was a queasy reminder of the cost that had to be paid to incorporate Arraez into the lineup.
And though it was no fault of his, his injury-induced absence from the playoffs marked a sour end to his season.
Final grade: C
I really wanted Arraez to work out. I’m well aware of the downsides to his no-power approach, that the batting titles paper over the fact that he doesn’t contribute nearly as much to run-scoring as you’d think a batting champion would, that there’s a good reason he’s bounced from team to team. But I loved him for his unusual, old-school approach, even more so given that it was a much-needed relief from all the swing-and-miss we’d seen from the Phillies standbys all season. I loved him even more when I saw his sunny disposition and good cheer. But the fact of the matter is that his 2026 in Philadelphia was not a success: the Phillies traded away prospects and reshuffled their defensive alignment for a hitter who delivered a below-average performance. I still want him to work out. There’s a world in which the Phillies resign him, and in which his batting average progresses to the mean, and he gives the team more than he did in 2026. I hope that’s a world we’ll end up seeing.
