Category: Baseball

It can be thrown around a bit too often, but that game certainly felt like playoff baseball. You can slice it, dice it, stir it, and shake it, but no matter how you spin it, through four games these White Sox have given the Cubs all they can handle. The games have been old fashioned pier six brawls. The Cubs jumped out early and for three innings this felt like a lovely night at the park. But the Sox added three in the fourth to take the lead. The Cubs got two back in the fifth to retake the lead. But then the Sox got two in the eighth to take it one more time. There was scoring in six of the 10 innings of this game, but in no inning did both teams score.

WPA loves a good momentum swing. So there was WPA flying all over the place in this one. I’ll write more tomorrow about the WPA from this one as the numbers often swing between the time I’m writing about them and the following morning when Al is editing and posting. As I’m writing, there were 11 events that swung the win probability of this game by more than 10 percent (and two more that would round to 10). WPA recorded 90 events in the game, so on 11 percent of the plays in the game, the win probability changed by 10 percent or more. That’s wild. Four of those swings were by 25 percent or more. Nico Hoerner was at the plate for two of those four. And that’s how Nico Hoerner stole a Superhero from the one most of you probably had in your head.

I do this on a daily basis and I know I was thinking of Pete Crow-Armstrong as I was pre-writing in my head. A walk-off homer will overshadow a whole game. A walk-off homer after a first pitch of the game homer? That’s a 70-year occurrence. Well, it’s been that long since it happened. Being fair, it’s more likely to happen going forward than it was going backwards. Power hitters didn’t often lead off until the modern game. The two National League front runners for MVP both lead off for their respective teams that are expected to make deep playoff runs.

In fairness, Pete did generate a lot of WPA. A lead-off homer in a more than 10 percent event (10.1% percent). A walk-off homer is a significant event. It’s crazy that a walk-off homer in extra innings isn’t a bigger event. But, it’s a little less than 20 percent. In part, modern baseball tilts it so much that in extra inning game, if you don’t allow a run in the top of the inning, you have to feel like you are a very good bet to win the game. That’s exactly how WPA sees it. I couldn’t readily find statistics, but a significant majority of games that do go extra innings go exactly one extra inning. The Cubs and Sox each played their 17th extra inning game Monday night. The Sox have gone past 10, doing it recently with the Red Sox(13). Two Cubs game have gone 11. The White Sox have actually had five go more than 10.

The White Sox are experiencing just a few growing pains. They are 7-10 in extra innings, 28-35 on the road and 15-18 against the NL. There’s some randomness in extra innings to be sure. But it helps to have veteran guys who know their role. Jacob Webb will be another unsung hero for the Cubs in this one, gritting through the 10th inning. Winning on the road is tricky too. Winning against the other league has a lot to do with adapting quickly to players you haven’t seen much of. When they figure those things out, that team can be a handful. This is a very good win.

My three stars are going to be exactly the three guys we talked about up here. Pete Crow-Armstrong, good evening and then good night. Nico Hoerner, two momentum swinging hits in one game. A wild two-run single in the fifth turned a one-run deficit into a one-run lead (with a little help from an errant Sox throw). An enormous one-out, RBI single in the ninth to keep the game alive. Jacob Webb picks up a win for surviving the 10th. It’s so hard to avoid a run with the ghost runner. He issued two walks, but got two huge strikeouts and a weak grounder, getting credit essentially for all three outs. As always, in these razor thin margins, just about every positive contribution was absolutely vital to the win. So hat tip to all of the other key contributors. But I do think these three stand a fair bit ahead of the rest.

Game 126, August 17: Cubs 7, White Sox 5 (73-53)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.797). 4-5, 2 RBI
• Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.372). 4-5, 2 HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R, SB
• Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.311). IP, 5 BF, 2 BB, 2 K (W 5-2)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ryan Zeferjahn (-.422). IP, 6 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 ER, K
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.232). 1-5, R
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.211). 0-5

WPA Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner’s single with runners on first and second and one out in the ninth, the Cubs down one. He tied the game. (.492)

White Sox Play of the Game: Andrew Benintendi’s two-run homer in the eighth to give the Sox a one-run lead. (.475)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 125 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 39 of 47 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +30
• Alex Bregman +19
• Shōta Imanaga +14
• Trent Thornton +13.5
• Carson Kelly +12.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -19.5

Scoreboard Watching: Phillies win (five back). Diamondbacks lose (seven back). Padres win (six back). Braves lose (one up). Dodgers win (two up). Brewers were off (4.5 up).

Up Next: Game two of the three-game set with the White Sox. Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.53) gets another start for the Cubs. He’ll look to bounce back after allowing six runs in 4.2 innings of his last start. I haven’t seen a formal listing of the Sox starter, but Fangraphs suggests Bryan Hudson (3-4, 3.14). Hudson would be an opener. If I look back for the corresponding turn in the rotation, Erick Fedde was the “bulk” guy behind an opener last week for the Sox. Fedde is 6-8 with a 4.51 ERA.

Regardless of how the Sox deploy their pitching, that’s going to look like a win. Fedde never really lived up to the potential associated with a first round pick. Go win another series. This one would be against a very good team. Take advantage of catching them when your rotation is better positioned than theirs.

Over the last few days, the future of the Nats shortstop position has been discussed very heavily following CJ Abrams’ move to second base. For the rest of the season it seems like Nasim Nunez will be the team’s primary shortstop. Honestly, that is not an idea I am thrilled about given Nunez’s lack of production.

Even with Abrams at second base, I believe that the Nats have a better answer at the shortstop position in Seaver King. This weekend when I was in Rochester, King’s bat looked big league ready. However, in Spencer Nusbaum’s recent sourced piece, he theorized that Nunez’s glove could provide more value in each of the next two seasons.

Nunez does have a good glove, but I do not buy the idea of him being an everyday option past this season. The bat is not good enough for Nunez to be an everyday player. On the season, Nunez has a 67 wRC+, meaning he is about 33% worse than even the average hitter. To have that kind of production in the lineup nearly every day, your defense has to be perfect. Nunez has good defense, but he has been pretty mistake prone this season with 13 errors. 

Simply put, the batted ball data is ugly. His 84.9 MPH average exit velocity is lower than Max Scherzer’s in 2021, the last year where pitchers hit. After showing flashes of power at the end of last season, that has totally evaporated in 2026. His .265 slugging percentage is one of the lowest numbers you will ever see. Sure, it is not Nunez’s job to slug, but there also needs to be a certain floor you have to hit.

This season, Nunez is not reaching that offensive floor. His .578 OPS is the worst among all qualified hitters this season. For me, that is a sign that he is being overplayed and his skills are being overextended. Nasim Nunez in small doses can be effective, but it is just not working as an everyday player.

Interestingly, the two WAR models disagree pretty heavily about Nunez. Baseball Reference has Nunez at a 2.1 WAR, which is actually quite solid. However, Fangraphs has him at 0.7 wins above replacement. 

Personally, I think the truth is a lot closer to Fangraphs assessment, but that is up for interpretation. Second base defense has value, but I struggle to see how very good but not quite Gold Glove caliber second base defense and great baserunning get you to 2 WAR with that bat.

I am actually curious to see how Nunez does at shortstop to finish the season. Everyone seems to assume he will be a great defender, but I am not 100% sure. We know Nunez can make exceptional plays like the one he made against the Cubs on Opening Week. However, he has been shaky at short when he has played there.

It has been a small sample size, but Nunez has already made 4 errors at short this year and has -3 outs above average at the position. Once he is playing the position every day, I think those numbers will improve, but the question is how much.

Nunez can’t just be an average defender at short, he needs to be great. His lack of offensive ability gives him very little margin for error on the bases and in the field. Nunez is very good in those two areas, but I would like to see a bit more consistency.

On the bases, it has felt like Nunez has been getting a little sloppy lately. He had an incredible run on the bases to start the year and still leads the majors in steals. However, in the last two months, Nunez has 8 steals but has been caught 4 times. In August, Nunez only has one steal and has been caught twice. With a .368 OPS and .133 average this month, the opportunity just has not been there.

Nunez brings good vibes and has clear athletic ability. I think he has a spot on a big league roster. However, this is just not a player that I value in an everyday role. The only reason I would keep Seaver King down is concern about the looming lockout. If King is on the 40-man, he will not be able to play minor league games next season during a potential lockout.

I do not buy the idea that Nunez can be a long term bridge to Eli Willits though. At the start of next season, the Nats should have King as the starting shortstop with Abrams at second, assuming he is still around. Nunez can be on the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. However, this season has shown us that he is not a viable everyday option.

The Texas Rangers, despite their sub-.500 record, continue to be in the Wild Card race, and are currently tied with Detroit and Baltimore for the third Wild Card spot, as well as being just two games out in the American League West.

In our latest Rangers Reacts Survey, we asked, in a playoff series, who would you want to see as the #3 starter for the Rangers, behind Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi?

(And yes, deGrom left his most recent start with a triceps issue and Eovaldi is on the injured list, but we are assuming both are healthy and are going 1-2 in a playoff series.)

While he’s only been back off the injured list for a short period of time, almost half of you went with Cody Bradford as your pick. MacKenzie Gore got a little over a quarter of the vote, with about one in six of you opting for Jack Leiter.

And I have to say, there was a surprising amount of support for Cal Quantrill…

This has been brought to you by FanDuel.

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The Colorado Rockies have had a miserable time against teams over .500, posting an abysmal 23-50 record.

The Los Angeles Dodgers predictably flexed their muscles in the series opener, and my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18 are banking on more of the same tonight.

Who will win Dodgers vs Rockies today: Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers ran up the score Monday, and I expect them to do so again vs. Ryan Feltner tonight.

He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, ranking in the fourth percentile in Pitcher Run Value. Feltner is in dreadful form, posting a 6.05 xFIP and 1.7 K-BB% over the last month.

He neither misses bats nor limits power, which will make it difficult to get outs against a patient Dodgers lineup.

Eric Lauer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one start with L.A., and that’s all he’ll need to do.

Play to -135.

COVERS INTEL: The Dodgers lead the majors in OPS, and should have a field day against Feltner and his eighth percentile barrel rate.

Dodgers vs Rockies Over/Under pick: Over 11.5 (-115)

The Dodgers haven’t been themselves of late, but they still rank in the 99th percentile with a .426 xSLG against righties.

They’re set up to score in abundance against Feltner, who owns a seventh percentile ranking in xSLG and will have nowhere to hide at Coors.

Favorable hitting weather is expected, with a projected 25% boost to home runs. Feltner owns a 6.69 ERA over eight starts when there’s been a boost of 20% or more.

Lauer has struggled with the long ball (2.01 HR/9), and the Colorado Rockies rank third in home OPS.

Play to -122.

Dodgers vs Rockies home run prediction: Kyle Tucker (+475)

I like the idea of buying low on Kyle Tucker.

He's been much more productive on the road, and there’s no better environment to hit than Coors Field.

Tucker has left the park in 19% of his away games vs. starting pitchers who rank in the 30th percentile or worse vs. lefties, and Feltner sits in the 16th percentile.

Tucker has hit for the most power against the fastball, Feltner’s most-used pitch, and Tucker hit a 362-foot flyout just yesterday.

I’d play Tucker down to +450.

Dodgers vs Rockies weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 80s, which should help the ball carry even further for hitters. Boost to the offenses.

Dodgers vs Rockies odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -190 | Rockies +160
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Rockies +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-115) | Under 11.5 (-105)

Dodgers vs Rockies trend

Colorado has hit the Over in 14 of its last 23 (+3.80 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.

How to watch Dodgers vs Rockies and game info

Dodgers vs Rockies latest injuries

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The Giants and Guardians made an early season trade – now they play a late-season series with the trade pieces likely playing a prominent role for each of these disappointing teams.

The Giants are 51-73 with a -67 run differential, 20th in team wRC+ with 97, 26th in baserunning runs above average at -4.9, 18th in Defense at -20.9, 19th in starting pitcher ERA 4.37 (4.09 FIP), and 24th in bullpen ERA 4.38 (4.32 FIP).

The Guardians are 60-65 with a -32 run differential, 24th in team wRC+ with 94, ninth in baserunning runs above average at 5.2, eighth in Defense at -4.8, 10th in starting pitcher ERA at 3.77 (3.99 FIP), and 12th in bullpen ERA 3.97 (3.90 FIP).

The Giants are pretty bad at just about everything. If ever there is a time for the season to turn around, it should be now.

Matchups:
Tuesday, 6:40PM ET: Whisenhunt, LHP 6.11 ERA (5.40 FIP) vs. Griffin, LHP 3.25 ERA (4.23 FIP)
Wednesday, 6:40PM ET: TBD (Houser, RHP 4.28/4.67 FIP or Tugboat Wilkinson, LHP) vs. Messick, LHP 2.59 ERA (3.23 FIP)
Thursday, 1:10PM ET: Roupp, RHP 4.31 ERA (3.62 FIP) vs. Williams, RHP 3.74 ERA (3.59 FIP)

The Giants are led by Bryce Eldridge 117 wRC+, Rafael Devers 117 wRC+, Casey Schmitt 114 wRC+, Jung Hoo Lee 111 wRC+, and Victor Beritoco 109 wRC+.

The Guardians are led by Nathaniel Lowe 128 wRC+, Chase DeLauter 127 wRC+ (please, be back), Angel Genao 126 wRC+, Austin Hedges 105 wRC+, Steven Kwan 104 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 103 wRC+ and Travis Bazzana 102 wRC+.

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Who will win Marlins vs Phillies today: Marlins (+197)

The Fightin' Fish look pretty delectable this evening after coming off a 6-5 loss last night. They now draw veteran right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has looked off in his last three outings. Wheeler owns a 5.84 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and a 10.34% walk rate during that stretch. With the Miami Marlins' lineup starting to heat up again, this could be an interesting matchup. 

The Marlins own a 119 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .759 OPS in their last six games. The Philadelphia Phillies' offense has been great, but they don't boast as many hitters barreling the ball like the Marlins, which is why the latter is an intriguing pick at a near 2/1 price. 

Tyler Phillips seems likely to follow opener Cade Gibson for Miami. He's been struggling, but paying more than two dollars for a team to secure a win on a random Tuesday in August doesn't move any needles. 

COVERS INTEL:Owen Caissie sports a .274 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate, and a 19.4% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)

With over half of the Marlins' lineup batting from the left side this evening, runs could be on the horizon. Wheeler has scuffling against left-handed hitters in his last three outings, posting a 6.75 ERA, 5.78 xERA, 6.05 xFIP, and 15.2% walk rate. Phillips has also been lagging on the road, where he owns a near 6.00 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.

Both offenses are hitting extremely well right now, so I expect plenty of runs. After 11 runs were scored last night, we should see a similar offensive explosion this evening.

Marlins vs Phillies home run prediction: Griffin Conine (+474)

It's very hard to ignore a batter who's been producing this much hard contact over his last 10 games, and Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine has been destroying baseballs. He owns a .690 slugging percentage, .345 ISO, 15.8% ground-ball rate, 58% hard-hit rate, and 21.1% barrel rate during that stretch.

Wheeler has taken a step back against left-handed hitters. The last 60 he's faced are making 44% hard contact, and barreling the ball 11% of the time with just a 22% ground-ball rate. Wheeler is also allowing a 2.08 HR/9 during that span.

Conine enters today with the highest matchup rating in this game, according to Batters-Box, where he covers 60% of Wheeler's offerings.

At +474, we're getting a great price for a hitter absolutely killing the baseball. Play this down to +450.

Marlins vs Phillies weather

Marlins vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Marlins +197 | Phillies -219
• Run line: Marlins +1.5 (-112) | Phillies -1.5 (-103)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-116)

Marlins vs Phillies trend

The Miami Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last nine games (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Phillies.

How to watch Marlins vs Phillies and game info

Marlins vs Phillies latest injuries

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Patrick Sandoval has been playing with fire baserunners all season since returning from Tommy John surgery this year, and it finally blew up on the Red Sox over the weekend. Now we’re hearing that an injury may be playing a role in his performance, even if it’s a small one. Sandoval apparently has been battling a blister on his left foot (the foot he uses to push off the rubber) for most of the year. (Jon Conahan, NESN)

If Sandoval does go on the IL — or if he’s just bumped from the rotation for underperformance — the Sox do have another experienced starter on the roster who could take his rotation spot in Brayan Bello. The problem is that Bello, for whatever reason, is thriving in his long relief role after struggling in the first inning all season long. “Does this mean Brayan can’t start anymore? That’s not the case,” Chad Tracy said. “It’s difficult to ignore how very, very effective he has been coming out of the bullpen in a bulk relief role and taking down innings. So I don’t think that we’ve closed the book on that by any means. It just feels like that’s the way to do it right now.” (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

Bello is pitching so well in his long relief role that it’s hard not to think about what the narrative of his season would be if he was able to perform this way as a conventional starter. He has an ERA of 0.85 in over 50 relief innings, and if he were performing anywhere close to that while starting games, we’d be talking about him having a career year and thrusting himself into the Cy Young conversation. As it stands, Cam Schlittler of the Yankees seems to have that award locked up, though Sonny Gray is currently projected to finish fifth. (Jason Foster, MLB.com)

Sonny Gray is rightly heralded as one of the best offseason acquisitions any big league team has made this year. But, so far, the Red Sox trade deadline acquisitions aren’t faring nearly as well. (Rob Bradford, WEEI)

Bello isn’t the only Red Sox veteran who went missing from this team for most of the middle of the season, of course. Trevor Story has been out since mid-May recovering from sports hernia surgery, after struggling through the first weeks of the season. But he now hopes to return as early as Friday. It’s fair to ask whether he still should get the nod at shortstop given his poor performance before hitting the IL, but Chad Tracy says the goal is for him to be the everyday shortstop again. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

If he does make it back to the big leagues this week, Story won’t be the first one to make the trip East from Worcester. Reliever Wyatt Olds made the drive yesterday, after being called up to make his MLB debut in place of Raymond Burgos. But before he headed to Boston, he got pranked by the Woo Sox coaching staff. (Mac Cerullo, Boston Herald)

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We may be in the dog days of summer, but there is a full slate of baseball waiting for us, so it can't be all bad!

Today's MLB expert picks offer a trio of moneyline predictions, including the underdog Miami Marlins as an upset special over Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies.

It's part of our full set of MLB picks on Tuesday, Aug. 18.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: TOR ML	+122
Jon Metler: MIA ML	+203
Dustin Saracini: NYM/SD u8.5	+100
Joe Osborne: MIL ML	-150

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 45¢ (+122) at Polymarket

The Toronto Blue Jays finally had a day off yesterday after a stretch of 17 straight games. Over that stretch, Toronto posted the best team ERA in baseball and went 11-6 straight up against some of MLB's best teams.

THE BAT has the Jays as a 56-cent favorite, but they’re trading at just 45 cents, making this the best +EV play on the board today, according to the projection.

The Jays also have a rested bullpen, while the Tampa Bay Rays could be down two arms, including closer Bryan Baker, who threw 21 pitches yesterday and has pitched in two of the last three days. Their best lefty, Cam Booser, is also unavailable. 

Even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the shelf, Toronto can still win this game on pitching alone.

Nick Martinez is coming off a 101-pitch complete game, his season high, which could affect his efficiency today. Jose Soriano has also looked good since coming over from the Halos.

Dustin Saracini has a full preview of the action with his Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Marlins moneyline

Price: 33¢ (+203) at Polymarket

Fading the Philadelphia Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound is never an easy sell, but this matchup sets up well for the Miami Marlins.

Wheeler will make it difficult to string together big innings, so Miami needs to find creative ways to manufacture runs. That means working counts, driving up Wheeler's pitch count, forcing an early move to the bullpen, creating pressure on the basepaths, and using contact plays and hit-and-runs.

The good news is that none of this is outside Miami's offensive identity.

The Marlins don't need to rely on big swings or home runs to score. They can manufacture runs in a variety of ways, which is exactly the approach you want against a pitcher like Wheeler.

The Marlins are trading at 33 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 37 cents, which gives us enough of an edge to hit the button.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Marlins.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Padres vs. Mets Under 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

We're running with a large sample size of success with Robbie Ray and the hot hand in Zac Thornton tonight.

This New York Mets lineup has 82 at-bats against Ray and owns just a .204 xBA while striking out 30% of the time.

What sold me here is their astronomical 37% whiff rate against the San Diego Padres' prized deadline acquisition — look for him to end New York's four-game winning streak, too.

Thornton has been dealing lately, allowing just three earned runs across his last 11 innings. While the Mets' No. 8 prospect pitches to contact, he's allowed a low 4.5% hard-contact rate this season, which will be enough to suppress the Padres' bats.

With two well-rested bullpens, I'm expecting this game to cruise Under the total. 

I'd play this to 55 cents at Polymarket.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Padres.TV, SNY

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers moneyline

Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket

The Milwaukee Brewers have a major pitching edge tonight as they return home following a seven-game road trip.

Kyle Harrison has been lights out in Milwaukee, posting a 1.38 ERA across 10 home starts. He’s backed by a bullpen in good form, ranking third in ERA over the last two weeks. 

Meanwhile, Bryce Miller has allowed nine earned runs across two August starts and hasn’t been the same pitcher on the road, where his ERA is more than double his mark at home.

The Seattle Mariners’ bullpen has also been a disgrace lately, posting an MLB-worst 7.17 ERA over the past two weeks. Milwaukee is one of MLB's top home teams, going 12-4 at American Family Field since the All-Star break.

For more on this game, Quinn Allen has a full slate of Mariners vs. Brewers predictions on tap.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Mariners.TV, Brewers.TV

More MLB best bets for today

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The Chicago Cubs (-170) are coming off a thrilling extra-innings victory, and they're in a good spot to grab another win tonight against the Chicago White Sox.

They have Kevin Gausman on the mound going up against a steady stream of relievers, making the home team an attractive buy with my White Sox vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, Aug. 18.

Who will win White Sox vs Cubs today: Chicago Cubs (-170)

Kevin Gausman has pitched better than the results indicate over the past month.

He’s held opponents to a 31.1% hard-hit rate — third-lowest among today’s projected starters — and has a 0.68 HR/9, but hasn’t kept runs off the board in part due to an unsustainably high .364 BABIP and a low 61.8% strand rate.

He’s in a good spot to rebound against the Chicago White Sox. They’ve hit .233 against righties in August while striking out 27.4% of the time.

The Chicago Cubs should give him plenty of support against a bullpen sitting 22nd with a 4.70 xFIP this month.

Play to -180.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubs rank second in homers and third in HR/FB at home over the last month.

White Sox vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-126)

The White Sox have gotten five innings out of their starter just once over the past five games, putting a lot of strain on their relievers.

That’s far from ideal heading into a designated bullpen game where nine innings are needed from a group in poor form.

The Cubs rank third in wOBA and first in ISO in August, and are certainly capable of making life difficult on this bullpen.

While the White Sox haven’t hit for average, they do have power that should play well at Wrigley with winds blowing out.

Take to -135.

White Sox vs Cubs home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+245)

There are no secrets when facing Gausman. You’re going to see a ton of fastballs, and you’re going to see a ton of splitters.

Munetaka Murakami hasn’t faced many splitters this season, but he has absolutely destroyed the fastball against right-handed pitching.

He owns a ridiculous 27.5% barrel rate, 62.5% hard-hit rate, and .436 ISO. He is likely to sit on the fastball, and it only takes one good swing to do damage – especially with the predicted 15% home run boost with help from the wind at Wrigley.

Back to +230.

White Sox vs Cubs weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with up to 10 mph winds blowing out. While there could be some rain, the bats will see a boost.

White Sox vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: White Sox +145 | Cubs -170
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-135) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)

White Sox vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have won 33 of their last 50 games (+11.65 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Cubs.

How to watch White Sox vs Cubs and game info

White Sox vs Cubs latest injuries

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Welcome to Tuesday A’s fans!

The club can’t seem to get things right, even against a fellow bottom dweller like the Kansas City Royals. At 49-76 the team is tied with the Angels for the worst record in the sport. We need a win tonight or else we could be all alone at the bottom by the end of the day.

The A’s will be hoping that right-hander Jack Perkins can play stopper and help get the A’s their 50th win. That could be a tall task however, considering the massive struggles Perk has seen this year.

It’s easy to forget but the 26-year-old was considered one of the top pitching prospects in the system just last year. A former 5th round pick, the right-hander looked solid in a 12-game, four-start cup of coffee for his big league debut last year. There weren’t huge expectations for him this season, but there was an expectation he’d be able to hold himself.

That hasn’t really been the case. There have definitely been flashes of brilliance that make us see what he could become but consistency has eluded him in his brief time as a major leaguer. Perhaps some of that has to do with the fact that he began the year in the bullpen before being promoted to the starting rotation. Some pitchers make that transition look easy but those guys are the exception and not the rule. It’s much more common to see guys such as Perkins go through some struggles during their first extended look in the big leagues.

Struggles are putting it mildly for Perkins though. In the 11 starts since being slotted into the starting five the righty has an abysmal 8.17 ERA. Things aren’t exactly trending in the right direction either: he’s gotten shelled in his three August starts, allowing at least five runs in each appearance. That’s a streak that needs to stop tonight.

Many of Perkins’ underlying numbers don’t look as bad as that ERA does, but they’re still not great numbers overall. A lot of this can be chalked up to rookie growing pains. Some can be attributed to the mid-season role switch. Some blame on the ballpark. Some blame on the defense. There’s plenty of blame to go around for his tough season, but most of it has to be on the pitcher himself.

That’s not to say we should consider him a failed pitcher already. The thing we have to begin thinking about now though is what kind of role will he thrive best in? Is that going to be in the rotation, where he’s been among the worst in the sport this year? Or as a longman out of the bullpen who goes in short two, three inning bursts? The club will almost certainly add some starting pitching depth this offseason and push him down the depth chart, but the team would do well to pick a role for Perkins moving forward and sticking with it. What role should Perkins have on the next playoff contending A’s squad?

We don’t know who will be opposing Perkins tonight in Kansas City to stay tuned. First pitch is at 4:40. See you all then, and have a great Tuesday!

A’s Coverage:

• A’s Drop Road Trip Opener 9-5
• A’s Take Series Against Rangers, Win 5-2
• A’s place Soderstrom on 10-day IL with left hip impingement; Hernaiz recalled
• Late Blast Lifts Rangers Over Athletics
• Jeff McNeil Leads A’s to 8-3 Victory Over Rangers
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• 111 games, zero errors: Wilson sets MLB record at shortstop
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• A’s Top Prospect Jamie Arnold Sets Career High in One of His Best Double-A Starts
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season
• Signs Of Hope And Signs Of Hopeless
• Athletics prospect Ryan Lasko says feeling in his legs returning
• Cuban’s investment group purchases minority stake in Athletics
• Chan Ho Park joins A’s group; 1st Korean to buy stake in MLB club
• Blogfather Saves The Day With Pearls Of Most Excellent Advice

MLB News and Interest:

• D-backs star Marte placed on restricted list after not showing up at Fenway
• Yankees activate Carlos Rodon, place Max Fried on 15-day IL
• Cubs Place Edward Cabrera, Dansby Swanson On Injured List
• PCA 1st since 2010 with leadoff, walk-off home runs
• AL, NL Cy Young races seem all but decided as Schlittler, Miz dominate latest poll
• Two straight runners tested him at home. He fired 99 mph, 103 mph to nail them both!
• Mariners, Andy Ibáñez Agree To Minor League Deal
• Here are the current top prospects at each position
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Some major injury updates:

Prospect promotions:

Maybe a Wink in our future?

Haven’t seen that reported, any sources anyone?

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The Toronto Blue Jays will be well-rested going into Game 1 of their series with the Tampa Bay Rays after a day off, so I'm rocking with the road 'dogs as part of my Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions.

With Jose Soriano on the mound and a rested bullpen behind him, plus the Blue Jays owning strong numbers against Rays starter Nick Martinez, I'm seeing a slight edge we can take advantage of.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18, and cash a same-game parlay, shall we?

Blue Jays vs Rays predictions

Blue Jays vs Rays best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (+115)

When I say this could be the best spot to bet the Toronto Blue Jays during this three-game set in Tampa, I come with support.

Nick Martinez goes for the Tampa Bay Rays, and on top of not being able to miss any bats this season (14% K rate, 17% whiff rate),the Blue Jays own a .310 xBA and .352 xwOBA against him while striking out at just a 10% clip.

On the other side is Jose Soriano, who's limiting the Rays to a .245 xBA, including shutting down their star Yandy Diaz over 14 at-bats (.212 xBA).

It helps that the Rays have a taxed bullpen, too, using a combined five arms last night after Shane McClanahan got the early hook.

Coming into this game losers of three of their last four after a tough series against the Baltimore Orioles, expect the Jays to come out swinging.

I'd play this to +105.

COVERS INTEL: It could be the George Springer show against Martinez. The veteran is 8-for-19 with two homers with a .401 xBA against the right-hander.

Blue Jays vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)

The Jays are winners of six straight series, and the Rays' pitching has been getting absolutely pummeled, surrendering 26 runs across their last four games.

Martinez is a sinker-ball pitcher, throwing it 30% of the time. It's a pitch Ernie Clement owns a .368 average against, playing right into our hands. Look for the Jays, and Clement, to get to the Rays' right-hander early and take advantage of an extremely tired bullpen.

We're playing it safer in the same-game parlay and rocking with the Blue Jays on the run line, giving us multiple opportunities to cash today.

Blue Jays vs Rays SGP

• Blue Jays +1.5
• Blue Jays team total Over 3.5 runs
• Ernie Clement H/R/RBI

Blue Jays vs Rays home run pick: Ernie Clement (+1200)

Outside of Springer, Clement has the strongest numbers against Martinez, owning a .689 xSLG with a homer against the righty across seven at-bats. I'm staying off Springer for the most part today due to the sore shoulder he's playing through, which could suppress his power.

Clement came off the bench and played in Game 2 against the Yankees (going 2-for-2) and is in a prime spot to hit his first homer since Aug. 5 against a contact pitcher. Lock him in as a long-shot play.

Blue Jays vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Toronto (+115) | Tampa Bay (-135)
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-190) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Rays trend

The Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays' last five games as a road underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Rays and game info

Blue Jays vs Rays latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Rays weather

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The Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox are playing a rare crosstown series that actually matters this week at Wrigley Field. The White Sox are MLB’s biggest surprise this season, entering the week in first place in the AL Central with a 5.5 game lead over three other teams. The Cubs are the NL’s top wildcard team at the moment, and are hoping to chase down the Milwaukee Brewers for the division title by the end of the regular season.

Tensions were high in the first game of the series, and not just on the field. The Cubs beat the White Sox, 7-5, thanks to a dramatic 10th inning walkoff homer from possible MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. The two teams traded the lead back and forth all night, with the Sox striking first on a three-run blast by Randal Grichuk, the Cubs forging ahead on a throwing error by Miguel Vargas, and then the Sox coming back on an eighth inning pinch hit home run from Andrew Benintendi.

It felt like a playoff game in mid-August, but unfortunately some fans couldn’t control themselves. There was a large brawl in the middle of the Wrigley bleachers during the game between fans. These were adults involved, but their actions were childish. Watch the video of the fight below.

Here’s another angle as security guards stood by and watched a Cubs fan get beat by a Sox fan.

PCA commented on the fight after the game, saying “you have people in the stands competing, too.”

There’s no reason for any of this to be happening. It brings back memories of New York Knicks fans reportedly jumping San Antonio Spurs fans in the streets of Manhattan after Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Finals. It’s not that serious, guys.

When the Cubs and Sox played on the South Side earlier this season, Crow-Armstrong fired back with a vulgar response to a young woman in a Sox hat who was talking trash to him. Back in my day, the fighting between the Cubs and Sox happened on the field during the 2006 brawl after AJ Pierzynski trucked Michael Barrett at home plate.

The Cubs moved to 20 games over .500 with the win at 73-53. The Sox were the worst team in baseball history two years ago (41-121), but they now sit at 65-59 after Monday following thanks to a remarkable turnaround this season.

Cubs vs. White Sox is fun again, but some drunk, dumb fans threaten to ruin it for everyone else around them. These are adults, and they need to start acting like it.