Oct 12, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt (middle) in the dug out against the Cleveland Guardians in game one of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Los Angeles Dodgers are down 0-2 in their series agaisnt the Milwaukee Brewers after dropping both games road games. The two squads now get a day off to travel to Los Angeles where the series will continue, and possibly end if the Dodgers aren’t able to wake up. The reigning champions are more vulnerable than ever over the past three years and it’s almost like the entire baseball world is rooting for anyone other than LA. If they can’t win tomorrow that might be it for the defending champs.
We do have baseball today though as we shift our full attention to the American League. The Cleveland Guardians were able to snatch the first game yesterday evening, using some late offense to steal Game 1 in Tampa Bay and putting themselves in a great early position against the AL’s #1 seed. Led by manager and former Athletic Stephen Vogt, the Guardians are looking to break the second-longest championship drought across the four major American sports, bested only by the NFL’s Cardinals. After 78 years, I think Cleveland is ready to experience a parade.
Guardians at Rays (8:00 PM EDT)
Tampa Bay is the league’s #1 seed and looked like it for the first half in last night’s series opener. The final frames however were ugly for the Rays as their bullpen imploded and cost them the game. They might not have hit the panic button just yet but if they drop both of their home games, they’re in serious trouble.
For tonight they’ll have right-hander Freddy Peralta (5-2, 3.25 ERA*) taking the ball for this critical contest. The veteran has looked much better since his mid-season trade to Florida, helping to stabilize a Rays rotation that has plenty of upside but lots of health questions as well. Peralta has plenty of experience pitching in playoff games and tonight’s could be the biggest of his career. The Rays can not afford to go down 0-2 in this series before heading to Cleveland. They might not make it back to The Trop if they can’t secure the W tonight.
While the Rays have a grizzled veteran going for them tonight, Cleveland have rookie right-hander Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA) on the mound in this one. The righty is wrapping up his first full season as a big league pitcher and his 2026 couldn’t have gone much better. The 25-year-old made all 32 of his scheduled starts after claiming a spot in the season-opening rotation. Outside of a tough June Messick was pitching like an ace all season long and his 2.56 ERA ranks sixth in the entire sport. The Guardians got to like their chances with him on the mound, though they’ve been careful with him in his two postseason starts so far.
And here’s how the Guardians will line up this evening:
Who you guys got taking tonight’s game? Do the Rays find themselves in an 0-2 hole heading back to Cleveland or will they be able to snag their second home game from the Guardians. We’re about to find out!
*Statistics are with Rays only after his acquisition from the Mets at this summer’s trade deadline
Oct 12, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) runs the bases against the Tampa Bay Rays during the eighth inning in game one of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Pablo Robles-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
While the NLCS is on hiatus Tuesday as the Dodgers and Brewers travel to Los Angeles with Milwaukee ahead 2-0, there will still be baseball on our televisions Tuesday evening.
The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays play Game 2 of their ALCS at 8 p.m. (TBS, truTV and streaming on HBO Max) with the Guardians ahead 1-0 after rallying for a 7-3 win Monday night.
Tampa Bay, looking to avoid dropping both games at home to begin the series, sends Freddy Peralta (0-0, 1.93 ERA) to the mound after acquiring him from the Mets ahead of the trade deadline. Cleveland has Parker Messick (0-1, 5.40 ERA) making his third start of the postseason.
The Guardians have won four straight playoff games since losing their first two, while Tampa Bay saw its postseason-opening three-game win streak snapped in Game 1.
For those who are still invested even with the Braves eliminated, share your thoughts below when things get underway tonight in St. Petersburg, Fla.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 12: Freddy Peralta #51 of the Tampa Bay Rays looks on during Game One of the American League Championship Series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Monday, October 12, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 12: A detail shot of an ALCS base during Game One of the American League Championship Series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Monday, October 12, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers move to the City of Angels for Game 3 of the NLCS, tonight, attention focuses on the American League Championship Series as the Cleveland Guardians play their second game against the Tampa Bay Rays.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - OCTOBER 08: Parker Messick #77 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox in game four of the American League Division Series at Rate Field on October 8, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Russell Lee Verlinger/Cleveland Guardians/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Milwaukee Brewers went up 2-0 over the reigning World Series champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. That series moves to Los Angeles on Wednesday. So far, the talented young Brewers have looked much better at the plate than the Dodgers, but we’ll see how long that holds up. The Dodgers are definitely backed into a bit of a corner already.
On Tuesday night, Game 2 of the ALCS is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on TBS from Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay. Guardians’ LHP Parker Messick (0-1, 5.40 ERA) takes on the Rays’ RHP Freddy Peralta (0-0, 1.93 ERA).
After the way the Guardians handled the Rays bullpen in their convincing 7-3 victory on Monday night, the pitching matchup certainly looks to favor the Guardians the rest of the way. The difference isn’t that great, but with Gavin Williams and Cade Smith pitching some of their best ball of the season the task is particularly tough on the Rays side. Despite some talented young hitters like Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana, the Guardians offense wasn’t even close to the Rays level during the regular season, but with Jose Ramirez seemingly healthy for the first time all season, they look a lot better equipped to keep going toe-to-toe with the Rays, and whoever comes through on the National League side if they can get there.
PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 18: A statue of Pittsburgh Pirates legend Bill Mazeroski is seen before the exhibition game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cleveland Indians at PNC Park on July 18, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) | Getty Images
66 years ago today, Bill Mazeroski made history that baseball will never, ever forget.
On October 13, 1960, Mazeroski hit the most famous home run in baseball history.
Mazeroski walked-off the powerful New York Yankees at Forbes Field with a shot over the left field wall in Game 7 of the World Series. The Pirates won 10-9. They were outscored 55-27 and shut out twice.
Mazeroski’s home run was the one that made the difference and remains the only Game 7 walk-off home run in MLB history. Tuesday marked the first anniversary since Mazeroski passed away on February 20. He was 89 years old. The Pirates honored Maz with a jersey patch this season.
The Hall of Famer delivered what many believe to be the best moment in Pittsburgh sports. Better than the Immaculate Reception, Santonio Holmes’ game-winning catch in Super Bowl XLIII, Marc-Andre Fleury’s save in the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals, and others.
It secured the World Series title and remains the last time a major Pittsburgh sports team clinched the trophy on home soil. Even for those born 40 years after the ball cleared the wall, Yinzers still feel the gravity of the moment and the importance the Wheeling, West Virginia native left on Western Pennsylvania.
In a long list of successful accolades, Mazeroski’s moment has stood the test of time. The Pirates won their third World Series title and did what many thought was impossible against a Yankees team led by Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, Yogi Berra, and Whitey Ford.
On this date in 1960, Bill Mazeroski’s name went down in history.
— National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum ⚾ (@baseballhall) October 13, 2026
To this day, fans gather at the remains of the left field wall to listen back to the game broadcast, synced up to the moment Maz left the ballyard.
A tradition like no other in sports:
Fans gather at the remnants of Forbes Field in Pittsburgh annually on 10/13 to celebrate the anniversary of Bill Mazeroski’s walk off home run that gave the Pirates a #WorldSeries title vs the Yankees. #LetsGoBucspic.twitter.com/85Rz4ZdDYL
It’s an annual reminder of the important place the Pirates hold in baseball history, while also a reminder of the need for new historical moments current generations can hold onto forever.
There will likely never be a moment like Maz’s ever again.
CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 08: Erik Sabrowski #62 and Austin Hedges #27 of the Cleveland Guardians arrive at Rate Field prior to Game Four of the American League Division Series presented by Booking.com between the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox on Thursday, October 8, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jessie Alcheh/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Houston Astros manager Joe Espada (21) looks on in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park in Houston, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026.
The Astros’ current manager is interviewing for a divisional rival.
In one of the strangest situations in baseball, the Mariners requested permission to interview Astros manager Joe Espada, and Houston granted it, per MLB.com.
The bizarre situation comes as the Astros are uncertain about nearly everything that involves the team’s future, with Espada’s contract set to expire at the end of October.
It would certainly seem like the Astros intend to let Espada go and head into the 2027 season with a new manager if they’re letting him interview with a division rival.
Houston Astros manager Joe Espada looks on during the first inning of game two of the Wildcard round against the Chicago White Sox for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
But Seattle could be playing some games here, too.
By requesting permission to talk to Espada just before his contract runs out, the Mariners may be signaling that he’s in demand, pressuring Houston to re-sign him before someone else does.
Seattle is coming off a terrible 2026 season and fired manager Dan Wilson after going 76-86 despite entering the season among the American League favorites.
Houston had a tough go in their own right this season. The Astros won 81 games — good enough to win the AL West, but were swept by the White Sox in the wild-card round — and faced internal upheaval midseason.
The Astros fired general manager Dana Brown right after the trade deadline as ownership was in disagreement with the front office on the direction of the team.
Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez (44) looks on after the bottom of the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Houston Astros, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026, in Seattle. AP Photo/Kevin Ng
Brown had tried to trade reliever Bryan Abreu for Twins outfielder Trevor Larnach, but ownership killed those plans and fired him weeks later as his contract was set to expire in October, like Espada’s.
Espada took over for Dusty Baker after the 2023 season and had a 256-229 regular season record but went 0-4 in the postseason.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 12: Jake Bauers #9 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates after hitting a single in the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game two of the National League Championship Series at American Family Field on October 12, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers, and one of the best postseason performers, in baseball.
In Game 2 of last year’s NLCS, Yamamoto mystified the Brewers offense, throwing 111 pitches en route to a complete-game victory. Less than two months ago, he went six innings and struck out nine in a game the Dodgers went on to win.
Yesterday, in Game 2 of the 2026 NLCS, he couldn’t make it through the third inning.
It took Yamamoto 45 pitches to get through the order once. The second time around, he struck out leadoff man Jackson Chourio on three pitches, but the Brewers kept grinding. Brice Turang worked a six-pitch walk, then William Contreras flew out after battling for seven pitches.
With Yamamoto at 61 pitches through 2 2/3 innings, Jake Bauers came to the plate and put together the best at-bat of the series, culminating in a 12-pitch walk. One batter later, Christian Yelich laced a single up the middle that forced Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to go to his bullpen in the third inning.
Let’s take a closer look at that moment.
Bauers’ at-bat was a perfect microcosm of the Brewers’ strategy against Yamamoto. Nobody in baseball is going to out-pitch Yamamoto over nine playoff innings, so the Brewers set out to make sure he never got the chance. Unlike last year’s NLCS, when they were uncharacteristically happy to chase (and miss) pitches out of the zone, this time they tried to make him beat them in the strike zone.
Of Yamamoto’s 75 pitches, 35 were in the strike zone and 40 were out of it. The Brewers swung and missed just four times, compared to 12 called strikes. They weren’t swinging through anything; they took pitches early and made contact late to try and drive up Yamamoto’s pitch count.
The box score credits Yamamoto with 46 strikes and 29 balls. Take away the 16 called and swinging strikes, and that leaves 30 strikes that were either fouled off or put in play. Yamamoto faced 14 batters, striking out one and walking two, so 11 balls were put in play.
That means 19 of his pitches ended in foul balls, almost exactly a quarter of his total pitches. Nine of those foul balls, across two at-bats, were courtesy of Bauers.
Somehow, the box score doesn’t quite capture how impressive Bauers’ second at-bat was. Yamamoto, who throws six different pitches, is one of the filthiest pitchers in baseball. Making it through 12 pitches against him is, quite literally, something nobody in Major League Baseball had ever done.
Here’s what you may have missed, pitch by pitch:
Jake Bauers' 12-pitch walk against Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the most pitches any batter has seen in a plate appearance against Yamamoto in his career pic.twitter.com/rDCD0IWS9I
This might look like an easier take on TV, but one reason Yamamoto is so effective is how his splitter and four-seamer play off each other. A fastball in that location would stay in the zone for a strike. The splitter looks like it might catch the bottom of the zone, then dives away from the left-handed Bauers and into the dirt. Bauers recognizes the spin and takes it for ball one.
Pitch 2: 91.3-mph splitter (1-1)
Yamamoto comes back with a perfectly located splitter that catches the outside corner. His fastball usually sits about five mph faster than his splitter, so if Bauers had mistaken this for a middle-out fastball, he’d have been out in front and on top of it, likely rolling over into a weak groundout two pitches into the at-bat. Instead, he takes it for strike one.
Pitch 3: 96.3-mph fastball (2-1)
After two straight splitters at 91, a high fastball can look like a mistake worth jumping on. But at five mph harder than the splitter, this one keeps riding up and out of the zone.
As mentioned, Yamamoto gets a lot of quick outs by letting his fastball play off his splitter. A more swing-happy hitter probably swings under this one for strike two, or worse, pops it up. Bauers clearly wants to swing, but he lays off for ball two.
Pitch 4: 76.9-mph curveball (2-2)
While Yamamoto’s splitter is his main change-of-speed weapon, he also has a big, loopy curveball in his back pocket. It sits in the mid-70s, so after a 96-mph fastball, it can almost look like it’s in slow motion.
Just like the previous fastball, Yamamoto starts it high. A hitter who’s geared up for velocity can easily get out in front of it and roll over, but Bauers doesn’t bite. The problem is that this time, the pitch doesn’t stay up — it drops into the zone, and for the first time in the at-bat, Yamamoto has the upper hand. Strike two.
Pitch 5: 91.6-mph splitter (3-2)
Yamamoto goes back to the splitter, similar to the second pitch. This one starts high, then breaks down and away from Bauers, but it doesn’t end up in the zone. With two strikes, plenty of hitters would protect the plate and chase it. Bauers takes it to run the count full.
Pitch 6: 97.0-mph fastball (3-2)
Yamamoto reaches back for a little extra and tries to blow a high-and-tight fastball by Bauers. Bauers catches up to it just enough to fight it off foul.
Pitch 7: 77.7-mph curveball (3-2)
Yamamoto tries to mess with Bauers’ timing again with a nasty curveball, about 20 mph slower than the fastball, that would have just caught the bottom inside corner. Bauers, out ahead of it, manages to slow himself down just enough to foul it off.
Pitch 8: 95.7-mph sinker (3-2)
Yamamoto throws his first sinker of the at-bat, and it almost gets Bauers, who swings defensively and pops it up into foul territory down the left-field line. Neither Max Muncy nor Teoscar Hernández can quite get to it, so Bauers lives to see another pitch.
Pitch 9: 97.4-mph fastball (3-2)
At this point, Bauers is just playing pepper. In an impressive display of bat control, he gets inside another high-and-tight fastball and fouls it off.
Pitch 10: 93.7-mph cutter (3-2)
Bauers looks to be sitting on this one and gets a good chunk of it, but the roughly four-mph change of speed between this cutter (the first of the plate appearance) and the previous fastball throws off his timing just enough. His line drive goes foul down the first-base line.
Pitch 11: 92.3-mph splitter (3-2)
Based on the way he gears up to swing, Bauers is probably thinking fastball or cutter again. But surprise, it’s a splitter! At the last second, it dives down and away, and Bauers — in full “protect the plate” mode — manages to foul it into the dirt with the very end of his bat.
Pitch 12: 79.2-mph curveball (walk)
Bauers has swung at the last six pitches, so Yamamoto goes back to his curveball, hoping Bauers will chase one more time. He starts it at the bottom of the zone and lets it dive below. Bauers recognizes the curveball and lays off for ball four.
Bauers faced five different pitches, fouled off at least one of each, and ended the at-bat with a 12-pitch walk, something no hitter had ever done against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Brewers didn’t beat one of the best pitchers in baseball by hitting him hard. They beat him by refusing to let him put them away, and no one refused harder than Jake Bauers.
Oct 12, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (30) and pitching coach Mark Prior (99) look on against the Milwaukee Brewers during the third inning in game two of the NLCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The National League Championship Series is back in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers offense has yet to fully show up. One year after sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers in this series, it’s the Brewers with the commanding lead now, trying for their first World Series appearance in 44 years.
A two-game losing streak in the postseason is never advisable, though the Dodgers in each of their last two title runs survived such a fate. After dropping Games 2 and 3 of the NL Division Series in 2024, the Dodgers won the last two games against the San Diego Padres to advance. In the 2025 World Series, the Dodgers dropped Games 4 and 5 to the Blue Jays at home before taking Games 6 and 7 on the road in Toronto.
Being down 2-0 in a seven-game series is a daunting task, even with the next potentially three games at home at Dodger Stadium. In MLB postseason history, 95 times a team has led a best-of-7 series 2-0, and 79 times that team won the series (83.2 percent).
Last year saw an even split in this regard. The Dodgers and Seattle Mariners each won the first two games of their LCS on the road. The Dodgers completed the sweep of the Brewers at home, while the Blue Jays came back to beat the Mariners in seven games to advance to the Fall Classic.
This is the fifth time during this 14-year postseason streak that the Dodgers have trailed 2-0 in a best-of-7 series.
2013 NLCS vs. Cardinals
Dodgers lost the first two games by one run each on the road, then took two of three at home in Los Angeles before Clayton Kershaw and crew got blown out in Game 6 in St. Louis.
2018 World Series vs. Red Sox
The Dodgers were outclassed in this series, and dropped the first two games at Fenway Park. They won a classic Game 3 in 18 innings, which has become a bit of a tradition now in Los Angeles. The Dodgers led 4-0 after six innings of Game 4, but blew that game and got throttled in Game 5 to watch a team celebrate a championship on their home field.
2020 NLCS vs. Braves
There was no home and road during the pandemic season, with all seven games of this series at Globe Life Field in Texas over seven days. As the home team, the Dodgers lost the first two games, then scored a record 11 runs in the first inning to take Game 3 before losing Game 4. The Dodgers won their final three games, then used that as a springboard to snap a 32-year championship drought.
2021 NLCS vs. Braves
The 106-win Dodgers had three ace-level starting pitchers in Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urías, but all were ailing by the NLCS. The 88-win Braves won their division, which meant they got home-field advantage in this series, and won the first two games in walk-off fashion. In Los Angeles, the Dodgers pulled out a comeback win in Game 3 and got three home runs from Chris Taylor in Game 5 to get the series back to Atlanta. But Eddie Rosario and company finished off the Dodgers in Game 6.
In franchise history, the Dodgers have trailed a best-of-7 series 2-0 thirteen times, and they’ve come back to win four of those series (30.8 percent). Here are the rest, before this current postseason streak:
1916 World Series vs. Red Sox
Brooklyn dropped the first two games in Boston, including a 14-inning complete-game win by Babe Ruth in Game 2. The Red Sox won in five games.
1947 World Series vs. Yankees
The Dodgers dropped the first two games at Yankee Stadium, but won the next two in Brooklyn, including a walk-off win to spoil Bill Bevens’ no-hitter attempt in Game 4. After the two teams traded road wins in the next two games, the Yankees prevailed in Game 7 at home.
1953 World Series vs. Yankees
After dropping the first two games in The Bronx, Brooklyn evened the series at home before dropping Game 5 at Ebbets Field. The Yankees clinched the series at home in Game 6.
1955 World Series vs. Yankees
The Yankees won the first two games, and the home team won each of the first six games. Johnny Podres and crew stopped the streak with a 2-0 win at Yankee Stadium in Game 7, bringing the Dodgers their first World Series triumph.
1965 World Series vs. Twins
Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax were beaten in the first two games on the road, but the Dodgers won all three games at Dodger Stadium. After the Twins evened things in Game 6, Sandy Koufax struck out 10 in his second shutout in four days to clinch the series in Game 7 in Minnesota.
1966 World Series vs. Orioles
The Dodgers dropped the first two games at Dodger Stadium to an upstart Orioles team, including center fielder Willie Davis making three errors in the fifth inning of Game 2. The Dodgers scored two runs in Game 1, but failed to score in the final 33 innings of the series to get swept in four games.
1978 World Series vs. Yankees
After winning the first two games in Los Angeles, the Yankees outscored them 28-8 over the next four games to win another title.
1981 World Series vs. Yankees
The Dodgers turned the tables, dropping the first two games in New York before winning three at Dodger Stadium. The home highlight was Jerry Reuss out-dueling Ron Guidry in Game 5, with back-to-back home runs by Pedro Guerrero and Steve Yeager in the seventh inning fueling the 2-1 victory. The Dodgers finished things off with a 9-2 win at Yankee Stadium in Game 6, and Steve Howe recorded a 3 2/3-inning save in the clincher.
2008 NLCS vs. Phillies
After dropping the first two games in Philadelphia, the Dodgers won Game 3 at home, then Matt Stairs happened in Game 4, and Cole Hamels and crew won the pennant the next day.
UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 18: New York Mets' general manager Omar Minaya (left) holds court with manager Willie Randolph (right) and coach Guy Conti at Tradition Field during spring training. (Photo by Howard Earl Simmons/NY Daily News Archive via Getty Images) | NY Daily News via Getty Images
The Mets family has suffered a loss, as former bullpen coach and team adviser Guy Conti passed away after a lengthy illness. He was 84.
Conti was a baseball lifer who enjoyed a decades-long career. He first joined the Mets shortly after Willie Randolph was hired to be the team’s manager ahead of the 2005 season, and he served as the franchise’s bullpen coach for four years, including during the memorable 2006 campaign. He then served as a minor league adviser and spring training coordinator for the organization in subsequent years. Prior to coming to New York, Conti worked for the Dodgers and developed a close relationship with Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax, who subsequently often visited the Mets as a guest instructor during spring training while Conti was in the fold. He also helped to mentor a young Pedro Martinez during his time in the Dodgers organization, and the Mets would subsequently benefit from that tutelage when they signed the future Hall of Famer and reunited the two years later. Between the close relationships with two baseball giants and the decades of experience working in baseball, Conti’s accomplishments are enough to be the envy of anyone in the game.
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 25: Andrew Alvarez #54 of the Washington Nationals pitches in the second inning against the New York Mets at Nationals Park on September 25, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Entering the 2026 season, who would you have expected to be the Nationals second best starter at the end of the year? I am sure it would have taken you a while to get to Andrew Alvarez, but here we are. The Nats pitching staff did not have a great season as a whole, but Andrew Alvarez’s emergence was one of a few good stories.
While Alvarez being this good was unexpected, it did not come out of nowhere. Alvarez actually made five starts at the end of last season, and was surprisingly good. He posted a 2.31 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. However, Alvarez was a 26 year old rookie who had middling numbers in AAA. Without much velocity or prospect pedigree, this just felt like a flash in the pan.
However, Alvarez proved that he was no fluke in 2026. On the season, the southpaw posted a 3.43 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 112.2 innings. He dominated down the stretch, with a 2.15 ERA between his recall after the deadline and his unfortunate last start of the season. While he is not a perfect pitcher, Alvarez’s success was no accident.
Since rejoining the rotation after the trade deadline, Andrew Alvarez has a 2.15 ERA, 0.974 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. With one start to go this season, he's got a 3.17 ERA over 108 IP. Hasn't gotten a ton of attention, but he's solidified a spot in the 2027 rotation.
Andrew Alvarez has a well defined approach to pitching, and it makes him difficult to hit. He avoids throwing pitches in the middle of the zone at all costs. While that nibbling led to a 10.8% walk rate, it also helped him stay off the barrel. Alvarez’s 6.2% barrel rate and 49.8% GB rate are both excellent marks. Those numbers are a big reason why Alvarez only gave up 7 homers in 112.2 innings.
He has done a great job keeping the ball in the park, and that has separated him from a lot of other Nats pitchers. Alvarez’s 1.30 WHIP is pretty mediocre, but his ability to limit the home run helps him avoid big innings.
However, Alvarez is not some pitch to contact guy who has to pray the ball stays in the yard. He also struck out over a batter per inning this season. That is thanks to his wipeout curveball. The hook is what Alvarez usually turns to when he needs to put batters away. Of his 114 strikeouts, 71 of them came on the curveball.
Alvarez’s curveball is one of the more unique and underrated pitches in the game. Despite only averaging 92 MPH, his curveball is harder than most. It sits at around 83 MPH, and I have seen it up to 86. He is able to rip that curveball while not sacrificing any movement. In fact, Alvarez’s curveball has more drop than average. Usually, the slower 12-6 curves have more drop, but Alvarez is able to get that movement with velocity.
It should come as no surprise that the curve is Alvarez’s most used pitch. Batters hit just .178 on the offering and homered just once. The rest of Alvarez’s arsenal is solid and sequenced well, but the curveball is really what sets him apart.
If you look at FIP indicators, this season from Alvarez is no fluke. He posted a 3.32 FIP and a 3.67 xFIP. There has been a lot of discourse around Jake Bennett, but Alvarez was just as good and maybe even a little bit better than the former Nats prospect.
With how Alvarez performed, he should be locked into a rotation spot. Between Alvarez, Cavalli and Connelly Early, the Nats have a really solid top three. I would love to see the Nats add an established veteran and let some less proven guys compete for that 5th spot.
This was a great year for Alvarez, but he wants more. At the end of the season, Alvarez told me he wanted to add a bit more velocity in the offseason. He thinks more velocity would help him establish his fastball more and it would just make things easier.
One thing that Alvarez did a lot better at the end of the season was going deeper into games. That was due to gaining more trust from the coaching staff and being a bit more efficient. Hopefully this trend continues and Alvarez can be a guy who gives you at least five innings and often more.
This was a big year for the 27 year old. As a former 12th round pick without prospect pedigree, Alvarez had to scratch and claw his way into the club’s plans. That is exactly what he did, and now he enters 2027 as a key part of the Nationals rotation.
The Championship Series are underway in the National League and the American League. Milwaukee has taken a commanding 2-0 series lead against the Dodgers, which has the Dodgers beat panicking that maybe the best team money can buy can’t actually beat the best team analytics can build. Meanwhile, two small market darlings are squaring off in the AL, where the Cleveland Guardians jumped out to a 1-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Rays.
Brewers vs. Dodgers: The Two Towers
I suppose it was inevitable that the only two teams in baseball with 100 or more wins would meet in the National League Championship Series. Just what none of us were waiting for: A Dodgers vs. Brewers rematch of the 2025 NLCS that saw LA unceremoniously sweep Milwaukee out of the Postseason days after they defeated the Cubs. This is a classic “cheer for the meteor” series for many Cubs fans.
These two juggernauts of teams could not be constructed more differently. The Dodgers have seemingly unlimited financial muscle and a willingness to flex it at all times. Their current payroll has more than a billion dollars deferred and is a virtual All Star roster of talent. First baseman Freddie Freeman is a 10-time All Star and was the 2020 MVP, shortstop Mookie Betts is an eight-time All Star and was the 2018 MVP, Shohei Ohtani is a six-time All Star and four-time MVP. Their bullpen is the only bullpen in baseball where former closers accept more money to be a high-leverage setup man and play for a ring.
Meanwhile, in Milwaukee, they rank 19th in total payroll. If you multiply their 146 million payroll by year, it would take them roughly 7.5 years to match the amount of money the Dodgers have deferred. In Milwaukee, they built this team from scratch with smart drafting, international free agent signings, trades and a slew of pre-MLB contract extensions designed to keep talented players like Jackson Chourio in Milwaukee before their full value was on display in the show [VIDEO].
The Dodgers are the team paying those players after they hit free agency, which is why their $339 million annual payroll is not merely double the Brewers payroll (before you get to deferrals), it’s second only to the New York Mets in all of baseball. That type of payroll disparity means you can stack former MVPs back-to-back in your lineup and still trade for the best pitcher in baseball at the deadline — but it does not mean you’ll inevitably win [VIDEO].
The Milwaukee Brewers did it again Monday, defeating the Dodgers, 7-4, to take a 2-0 lead in the National League Championship Series. The Brewers look hungrier, more athletic and superior in the bullpen. Including playoffs, they’re now up to 108 wins.
It’s difficult to imagine the Dodgers taking four of the next five games, even with the next three at home. But considering how many escapes they pulled off while becoming two-time World Series champions, it’s also difficult to imagine them just fading away.
“We know what we can do. We know the team that we have,” left fielder Teoscar Hernández said. “There is still a lot of series to go. We know right now they’re playing really good baseball. They’re going to be tough to beat. But it’s not impossible.”
No, it’s not, but so much for the Dodgers needs to change.
The Dodgers and Brewers were second and third in total MLB offense by fWAR (behind the Cubs). They ranked first (Dodgers) and fourth (Brewers) in starting pitching fWAR while they were virtually tied at third (Dodgers) and fourth (Brewers) in relief pitching. This is a remarkably close series on paper. However, as Rosenthal wrote for the piece above “It’s not over. But if you were to picture the end of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ championship run, this is how it would look, no?” It is, exactly how it would look. The young talent on the Brewers just edging out the veteran talent of the Dodgers. There are still potentially five games left to play, which tower will remain standing at the end?
Guardians vs. Rays: The Fellowship without a Ring
Meanwhile in the American League a different battle is raging. If the Dodgers v. Brewers is a battle of the haves and the haves lesses, the battle in the American League is two teams with the smallest payrolls in baseball fighting for a shot to finally win a ring. According to Spotrac, the Tampa Bay Rays’ $95 million payroll ranked 28th among 30 teams in 2026 while the Cleveland Guardians’ $74 million payroll ranked dead last. In addition to rosters built on league-minimum salaries, platoons and youth, the Guardians and Rays have one other thing in common: a lack of championships (a characteristic they notably share with the Brewers).
Cubs fans might recall that the last time Cleveland won a World Series was 1948. Part of what made 2016 such appointment viewing for fans was the knowledge that one long championship drought was sure to end. The Guardians have yet to win it all, it’s been 78 long years of waiting in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Rays are one of the teams who has yet to win it all, period.
Cleveland took the first game between these two teams winning 7-3 last night with both Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey hitting home runs. Team leader, and sure first ballot Hall of Famer, José Ramírez was in the middle of all of it, going two-for-five, driving in a run and playing outstanding defense at third base [VIDEO].
The Rays will try to rebound in Game 2 with Freddy Peralta on the mound. Although, to be clear, starting pitchers were not the problem for Tampa Bay in Game 1. Drew Rasmussen threw a dazzling six innings, striking out seven [VIDEO].
Rasmussen allowed just two runs (unfortunately, they were both solo home runs). This game wasn’t decided by either teams (excellent) starting pitching. It was decided by the bullpens, and in Game 1, that edge went to Cleveland.
These teams are fairly evenly matched. Cleveland holds a slight edge with their relief pitching, although Tampa Bay had the more effective starters this season. The offensive edge goes to the Rays, who had the fourth best offense in baseball and the best offense in the American League by fWAR. The Rays collection of above average platoons and young stars includes 23-year old Junior Caminero, who already has two 40 home run seasons under his belt [VIDEO]:
The Guardians’ best hitters in 2026 were Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan and Travis Bazzana, but their Postseason hopes probably depend on Ramírez eclipsing all of those hitters production and leading his squad passed the Rays. One thing is certain: the team who wins the ALCS will have their eyes locked on a long elusive Championship ring.
TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 27: Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) is seen in the Blue Jays dugout during the first inning of an MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Toronto Blue Jays on September 27, 2026, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Mathew Tsang/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After a very good 2024 season (especially the second half of it) and signing a huge, long term contract, we really were hoping for another step forward. Yeah, this will be less than fun.
Baseball Reference has him at a 1.1 WAR as did FanGraphs, giving him a value of $8.6 million to the Jays.
He had a .305 wOBA and a 95 wRC+, down from .366 and 137.
His walk rate was down, 9.2% (from 11.9). The strikeout rate also down, 13.3% from 13.8.
Vlad’s line-drive rate was up (21.2% from 18.5). The ground ball rate was down (46.5% from 48.1). Fly balls down (32.3% from 33.4). Fewer of his fly balls left the park (14.3% from 17.1).
Vlad’s line-drive rate was down (17.3% from 21.2). The ground ball rate was up (48.6% from 46.5). Fly balls up (34.0% from 32.3). Far fewer of his fly balls left the park (5.7% from 14.3).
Soft contact was up (17.3% from 16.8), and hard contact was down (37.3% from 40.5).
Vlad hit LHP (.282/.383/.420) much better than RHP (.253/.314/.336).
He hit better on the road (.271/.328/.401) much better than at home (.249/.335/.311).
Vlad hit better in the first half of the season (.262/.346/.357) than in the second half (.257/.306/.354).
Vlad by month:
April: .354/.438/.469 with 2 home runs, 15 walks and 15 strikeouts in 31 games.
May: .232/.339/.284 with 1 home run, 15 walks and 10 strikeouts in 27 games.
June: .198/.235/.264 with 1 home run, 5 walks and 12 strikeouts in 23 games.
July: .256/.333-.395 with 2 home runs, 10 walks and 20 strikeouts in 23 games.
August: .221/.259/.299 with 1 home run, 4 walks and 9 strikeouts in 19 games.
September: ..275/.337/.400 with 2 home runs, 7 walks and 15 strikeouts in 21 games.
He hit .254/.333/.341 with RISP
Vlad was better in high leverage spots (.250/.340/.375) than low leverage spots (.239/.310/.331).
Defensively?
He had 8 errors at first base (most in the league), with a .992 fielding average (league average was .995).
FanGraphs has him at a +6 Outs Above Average. That is the top number at first base in the AL (Matt Olson, 12 and Ty France, 7 were higher in the NL).
FanGraphs has him at a -1.6 as a baserunner. He was 7 for 11 as a base stealer, which means we would have been better off if he didn’t try. If I ran things he’d have a permanent stop sign.
By Batting Order Position:
1st: 1 game, .250/.250/.250.
2nd: 39 games, .243/.317/.318.
3rd: 103 games, .267/.339/.373.
By Position:
First Base: 127 games, .276/.354/.376.
DH: 16 games, .149/.162/.224.
Pinch hit once and was 0 for 1.
Last year he hit better as a DH than when he was playing first.
The Jays were 71-72 in his starts.
Longest hitting streak was 12 games.
Longest on base streak was 14 games.
Longest without a home runs was 23 games.
Longest hitless streak was 4 games.
Vlad’s Favorite team to face: He hit .364/.400/.591 in 6 games against the Guardians.
Lease Favorite: Hit just .143/.205/.171 in 10 games against the Rays.
Times facing a starter:
First: .238/.296/.362.
Second: .284/.381/.388.
Third: .237/.276/.312.
He had 2 PA against a starter for the fourth time. He was 0 for 2.
Swinging at the first pitch of an at bat he hit .271/.284/.447 with 3 home runs.
Random Baseball Savant numbers:
Batting Run Value: 21st percentile.
Fielding Run Value: 77th percentile.
Expected Batting Average: 90th percentile.
Hard Hit %: 72nd percentile.
Sweet Spot%: 4th percentile.
Range: 88th percentile.
Arm Strength: 15th percentile.
Sprint Speed: 24th percentile.
So, yeah, it was a terrible season for Vlad.
A lot will be made of him getting LASIK. It seems like the trendy thing for baseball players (I’d guess not just baseball players but people in other sports too). Most of the time it isn’t shared publicly like Vlad’s. You can get better than 20/20 vision with it, and a lot of players want that.
I find it hard to believe that Vlad’s vision changed all that much over the last winter. I could be wrong, but I’d bet that not many people go from 20/20 vision to poor vision suddenly at age 27. And, of course, teams give players an eye exam during spring training.
But then, if I had Vlad’s money (as much as I’m sure the team would pay for it), I’d likely go for 20/15 vision.
Will it make a difference next year? I guess we’ll see. It might give him more confidence. Confidence does seem important.
Comparing him to his Hall of Fame father through their age 27 seasons, he:
Dad has pulled ahead on home runs 209 ro 192.
The son is still ahead on RBI: 648 to 623.
Jr. is ahead on games 1119 to 892.
Dad is ahead on bWAR, 31.5 to 26.9.
Dad is way ahead on OPS .973 to .839
At the start of Junior’s career, I asked “Who would have had the better career when Vlad Jr retires?” and I was surprised by how many said Junior. My answer was always ‘Bet on the guy in the Hall of Fame’. I still feel the same but Senior was out of a baseball at 36. Junior has a contract that will take him past that. And first base is easier on the body then right field. But, yeah bet on the Hall of Famer, always.
And, of course, Vlad is moving up the Blue Jays leader boards:
6th in bWAR: 26.9.
11th in Batting Average: .285.
11th in On Base: .361.
11th in Slugging: .478.
9th in OPS: .839.
8th in Games Played: 1119.
6th in Runs Scored: 643.
6th in Hits: 1218.
7th in Home Runs: 192.
9th in RBI: 591
5th in Walks: 486
Next year will be interesting. I’d bet on a bounce-back year, mostly because I don’t believe he could be this bad twice in a row. But in my OOTP Baseball, he was poor in 2027 and just awful in 2028…But I was able to trade him (without paying any of his leftover salary (yeah, not realistic, but I’m happy to have more money to play with). In the 6 games he’s played since the trade, he’s been very good.
If it really was a vision issue… well, it will likely take a bit for him to get used to tracking the ball with the better vision. Apparently, Bo Bichette had it done before last season, and he started slow this year, but improved as the season went on. He finished with a 97 OPS+, down from 128 last year.
Of course, there were some ‘aches and pains’ that might have added to Guerrero’s issues.
If I had to guess, I’d say Vlad might start slow and get better as the season goes on. But that’s a guess.
The fun of signing a huge contract is that people bring it up all the time, like a large salary means you are no longer a person who has the usual ups and downs everyone else does. But then, it is a problem I wouldn’t mind having.
DAYTON, OH - MAY 29: Myles Smith #11 of the Dayton Dragons gives high fives in the dugout after scoring during the game between the West Michigan Whitecaps and the Dayton Dragons at Day Air Ballpark on Thursday, May 29, 2025 in Dayton, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
The 2026 regular season marked the fourth straight year that Major League Baseball has seen overall attendance rise. As Sports Business Journal noted at the end of September – coinciding with the end of the regular season itself – MLB teams averaged 29,601 fans per game through their 2,429 games, a mark that was up a half-percent year over year from 2025.
The Reds, though, saw their average attendance decline some 8.1% in one of the worst year over year declines, and at 24,589 per game they failed to top 2,000,000 million fans at all during 2026.
There are endless theories as to why the Reds stepped backwards. The obvious one is that they went from a team chasing a playoff spot (and eventually waltzing into it) to a team that collapsed early. There’s also the notion that ‘Reds Country’ is an expanse that depends upon the smaller metro areas an hour, two hours away that watch and listen and show up when the goings are good but ditch the idea of a six, or seven hour round trip to catch meaningless weekday games in August and September.
One place firmly entrenched within Reds country still perpetually finds a way to get in front of some incredibly sound baseball, however. Perhaps it’s the idea that the future of the Reds hasn’t yet been spoiled that draws them out on the regular, or perhaps it’s just that the minor league game that is played in their brilliant stadium is just simply a better overall product than what the Castellinis put on the field in Great American Ball Park year after year after year.
That, of course, is up the road in Dayton. Their Dragons drew in over 511,000 fans across the home slate of their regular season, and as Baseball America noted today that was the fourth most of any minor league club across the sport during the 2026 season.
The minor league baseball teams with the highest total home attendance in 2026 ⚾️
While that’s overly impressive in its own right, context is key here. Ranking in spots one through three on this list are all AAA clubs with significantly larger home stadiums, while only the Richmond Flying Squirrels (of the AA Eastern League and ranking seventh) join the Dragons as non-AAA clubs within the Top 10 in attendance overall.
And Richmond, you may recall, is a city that hosted AAA baseball for nearly 35 years before the Richmond Braves relocated to Gwinnett, Georgia.
It rarely matters how good the Dragons are to draw out their fans, either. Back in 2011 they famously broke the record for the most consecutive home game sellouts by a pro sports club y packing Day Air Ballpark for the 815th consecutive time, and the 2026 iteration of the Dragons only posted a 67-63 overall record. In other words, it’s not the winning that matters so much to the Dayton fans, it’s the baseball itself, especially since in the Midwest League they’re often viewing insanely talented prospects (such as Alfredo Duno for the first half of 2026) playing alongside and against 19 and 20 year olds who are about as un-finished as professionals as it gets.
Props to Dayton and Dragons fans for another year of incredible partnership. Maybe they can give the Reds themselves a few pointers!