Category: Baseball

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A brand new week is here! Let's kick it off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight's MLB slate, highlighted by Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber

Here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 24.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Munetaka Murakami	+325
Kyle Schwarber	+307

Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+325)

"This guy writes up Munetaka Murakami every single day!"

Correct.

The No. 1 hitter on Batters-Box today is the South Side slugger, and he draws a heavy fly-ball pitcher in Texas Rangers right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has struggled against left-handed hitters all season long.

The last60 left-handed hitters Rocker has faced have generated a 71.1% elevation rate, while owning a .367 xBA, .625 xSLG, and .383 xwOBA against him.

The Chicago White Sox rookie has the team's highest barrel rate over the last 10 games, while posting a .263 ISO and .457 xSLG.

Through 56 elite ratings this season, he has left the yard nearly 34% of the time. He also covers almost 80% of Rocker’s pitch mix.

Take this down to +300.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, RSN

Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+307)

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is coming off a monster weekend at the dish, looking to keep that momentum rolling into the new week.

Schwarber draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, who has allowed the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced to produce a 43% line-drive rate, while owning a .331 xBA and .476 xSLG.

Schwarber owns a .549 xSLG, .302 ISO, 45.5% hard-hit rate, and 18.2% barrel rate over his last 10 games. Across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, the big fella is generating a 52.4% hard-hit rate and 28.6% barrel rate.

Hard to pass up this price for KYLE SCHWARBER to go yard while he is on this type of heater.

Play to +275.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SEAM, NBCSP

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Sox’ contingent of rehabbing big leaguers has been a mixed bag in the minors so far. Roman Anthony seems fine, more or less, hitting moon shots, working walks, and working his way back. Trevor Story and IKF, on the other hand, look lost at the plate. So what’s next for this trio? Story and IKF will head to Boston today to be reevaluated, and they could potentially rejoin the team for the upcoming series against the Marlins. Anthony, though, will head southwest from Portland to Worcester and make his first appearance with the WooSox on Tuesday. Could he return before the weekend? “I wouldn’t completely rule it out,” Chad Tracy said. “But I still think he’s in the building-up phase of outfield and continuing to get at-bats. So, I won’t completely rule it out, but he’s definitely going to continue on Tuesday in Worcester.“ (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

Trevor Story certainly didn’t look like a big leaguer down in Worcester. And complicating matters with respect to his return is the fact that Nick Sogard has looked great in Fenway. “You can’t say enough about it,” Tracy said of Sogard’s receet play. “You’re getting power swings on the left side, powerful swings on the right side. You’re getting great defense. It’s been enormous, the at-bats he’s taken.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Unfortunately, Garrett Crochet isn’t nearly as close to returning, though he is making progress, having recently started “playing catch from 90 feet with greater intensity.” As a result of his injury, he has officially lost his ability to opt out of his contract in 2030, and the Sox now hold an option on him for the 2032 season. “I’ve long since accepted it,” Crochet said. “Regardless of that, my goal is to come back and help the team in any way that I can.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

When Crochet does return, he’ll find himself paired with a new battery mate of course. Luckily, new catcher Adley Rutschman is getting great reviews for the way he handles the staff. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

As amazing as this season has been, it isn’t hard to think about what this team would look like Garrett Crochet in the rotation, especially come playoff time. As it stands, though, we’ll get a little preview of the Sox playoff rotation this week, as Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, and Sonny Gray will face the Marlins in that order. (Rodney Knuppel, NESN)

Jake Bennett may or may not make a postseason start. He’s been great relative to expectations this season, but is starting to struggle a bit. Those struggles continued in the early stages of yesterday’s game, but he was saved by some great defense. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country.

The Royals are red hot; they’ve won eight straight. Even with all of that winning, though, they’ve merely created a second tier of “not in the playoff hunt” by having significantly more wins than the Athletics and Angels, but far fewer than the rest of the American League. Still, I come to you, wanting to dream a little about the playoffs.

So, yes, the Royals aren’t in it. In fact, they’d need to win 23 of their remaining 30 games just to finish the season with a .500 record. That said… a .500 record seems like it would probably be good enough to squeak into the postseason; the Guardians currently hold the final spot while a game below .500. 23 out of 30 would be a .767 winning percentage; that’s a 124-win pace over a full season. That’s ridiculous. But, well, the Royals don’t have to do it over a full season, just over the next month or so. When they started this eight-game winning streak, they needed to win 31 of their last 38 to reach .500, and they’ve played 1.000 since then. Compared to that, 23 out of 30 isn’t that crazy is it?

OK, yeah, it’s still pretty crazy. But here’s a question for you: how many more games would the Royals have to win in a row before it stopped seeming crazy? 10 in a row would mean they needed to win 21 of their final 28; that’s a .750 winning percentage to finish out the year. If they swept the rest of August, they’d have won 14 in a row and need to have a 17-7 September. That doesn’t seem completely unreasonable. If they got halfway through September without losing a game, they’d have won 26 in a row and only need to finish 5-7 to reach .500.

A couple key things to remember, here: I’m not asking you if you think the Royals can achieve any of those winning streaks. Just how long the streak would need to be for you to start dreaming about the playoffs again. Also, if they at least swept the rest of August, they’d hold tie-breakers over the Twins, Mariners, Tigers, and Guardians. With a really strong shot to also hold one over the Blue Jays. That’s a lot of teams in front of them that they’d beat out for a final playoff spot, should it miraculously come to that.

The Phillies are coming in on a nine-game winning streak after sweeping the Twins, Marlins, and Cardinals in successive series. Philadelphia continues to remain in a tight race for the NL Wild Card and the NL East division title. Meanwhile, the Mariners are barely hanging onto the fringe of the AL playoff picture, including giving up 19+ runs twice in a week. All this is to say the momentum is with the Phillies.

So things aren’t looking great, but the Mariners are not eliminated yet; it’s still very possible for them to make a run for the playoffs, remaining just three games out of the Wild Card and three games out of the AL West. Plus, despite the blowouts, the Mariners still claimed a series victory over one of the best teams in the NL, the Chicago Cubs. While things have definitely looked bleak since the All-Star break, this team still has the chance to control their destiny, and disrupting a red-hot Phillies squad could be the perfect start to doing so. 

The Phillies are a different team than you would expect, despite the notable names in their lineup — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner — they actually don’t pop off the page much as a team offensively. They’re not top 10 in the NL in runs or average or home runs or hits. In fact, across the board they end up rather middle of the pack despite the power-hitting stars that fill out the lineup. It’s much more likely that you’ve heard talk about their rotation this year, especially the continued breakout of Cristopher Sánchez, who the Mariners will thankfully be missing. However, the Mariners will still have to face the always dangerous Zach Wheeler, who is likely cruising to another top 10 Cy Young finish, as well as closer Jhoan Duran, who remains one of the best closers in MLB. This group of pitchers excels at striking out batters, so much so that they lead the NL as a group. However, the Phillies have weaknesses; while their starters can often go out and drop a quality start or keep a lineup shut down for six innings, the bullpen will still let a few runs through. If the Mariners can score early and attack a leaky Phillies bullpen, they may yet have a chance to size some momentum here and ride it right into the playoffs. 

The Phillies have rarely deviated from the lineups they send out on a day-to-day basis. The top three will almost always be Schwarber, Turner, Harper, followed by some combination of Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Luis Arraez. While the order can shift, those six are essentially guaranteed to be in the lineup somewhere. 

Kyle Schwarber typically leads off; the three-true-outcomes power hitter and perpetual MVP candidate continues to offer power and a solid eye at the top of the lineup, leading the NL in home runs and currently third in walks. Schwarber also leads the NL in strikeouts, so it’s not like there’s no hope in getting him out. Trea Turner typically falls behind Schwarber. The well-compensated shortstop has faced a lot of criticism this year from local fans as his production continues to fall short of expectations. The former All-Star has gone from winning a batting title to dropping 60 points in his batting average and has struggled to match his form and performance from last year on any level. Still, you never know when someone is gonna break out, and the Mariners tend to bring the best out of their opponents. Bryce Harper rounds out the top three; the two-time MVP is always a cause for concern, and this week is no different. Harper leads the league in walks while boasting a 134 OPS+ to go along with 26 home runs so far this year. While he might not quite be in the MVP conversation, Harper is certainly someone to be very wary of.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the better part of a decade, a model of consistency and health. A blood clot in his shoulder cut his season short last year and he eventually had to undergo surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite the severity of the injury, he missed just a month to start the season and has looked no worse for wear once he got back on the mound. Under the hood, he’s seen his strikeout-to-walk ratio slip just a tiny bit, though a strikeout rate dropping from 33.3% to 30.4% still makes him one of the best strikeout artists in the game. He’s got excellent command of his deep repertoire, plenty of weapons to induce swings and misses, and masterfully keeps batters off balance.

Aaron Nola’s long and successful career seems to be winding down. He’s been a staple member of the Phillies rotation for more than a decade, but with all those miles on his arm, he’s started the slow descent of an aging hurler. His ERA isn’t as high as it was during an injury-plagued season last year but his FIP is up to a career-high this year. His trademark curveball is still a very effective pitch but the deterioration of his fastball velocity is the main culprit behind his struggles. He’s responded by throwing his breaking ball more than ever, but batters are still pounding his hard stuff when they see it.

After trading for Jesús Luzardo last year and helping him truly establish himself as a big league pitcher, the Phillies signed him to a five-year extension this offseason. He has responded with the best season of his career. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is higher than ever, he’s pushed his groundball rate up six points, and he’s very likely to earn downballot Cy Young votes for his efforts. Everything starts with his power sweeper. He’s throwing that breaking ball more than ever and it’s one of the best pitches in all of baseball. A pair of solid fastballs and a changeup round out his repertoire, but the big bender is the foundation that makes the whole package hum.

The Big Picture:

Another week, another Wild Card leader. Thanks to a sweep over the weekend in Colorado, the Guardians have leapt into the third Wild Card slot, tied with the Rangers and Astros. Houston technically holds the AL West division lead despite matching records with the other Texas team; the ‘Stros travel to face the Yankees this week. Meanwhile, the Rangers head to Chicago to face the AL Central leading White Sox.

When a team is on a hot streak – and I feel like a nine-game winning streak qualifies – it isn’t always the best thing for them to have to travel across the country. But the schedule makers have seen fit to send the Phillies out west for a three-city road trip, so hopefully, they can keep the magic going in the Pacific time zone.

On the positive side, the first stop on the trip is Seattle where the Mariners are having a massively disappointing season. After losing in game seven of the 2025 ALCS, the Mariners have slumped to 62-69, which somehow is still good enough for third place and the edge of contention in the awful American League West.

Since this is a Seattle team, I’ll put it in grunge terms: They’re still alive. But do they deserve to be?

Opposition research: Cal Raleigh

Many people believed Cal Raleigh should have been the American League MVP winner last year. Hitting a league-leading 60 home runs while playing good defense as a catcher is something that simply doesn’t happen. While the 60 home runs might have been a fluke, it wasn’t like Raleigh came out of nowhere. He hit 34 homers the years before, and combined with a Gold Glove in 2024, it felt like the “best catcher in baseball” debate had been settled and would be for at least a few years.

The debate has been reopened this season because Raleigh has followed up that stellar campaign with one of the worst seasons by any player in baseball.

“Big Dumper” is no longer a complimentary nickname, as Raleigh is batting just .159 with 14 home runs. He spent about a month on the Injured List with an oblique strain earlier this year, but if the Mariners hoped a return to health would mean a return to production, they’ve been sorely disappointed, as his post-injury statistics are in line with what he was doing beforehand.

It isn’t clear why Raleigh has had such a downturn this season. Maybe his teammate put a curse on him for snubbing him during the WBC? If so, that’s an epic own goal on Randy Arozarena.

Hating on the Mariners

Unless the Mariners make a run to win the West, this will be another season where they don’t make it to the World Series. I understand that they’ve only been around since 1977, but that’s almost 50 years now.

This franchise had the coolest player of the 90’s, and the most prominent Japanese player in baseball for 14 years, and they couldn’t find a way to win even one American League pennant? They should have done what the Dodgers are doing and convince other high profile Japanese players to team up with Ichiro. (It probably didn’t help that they never made the playoffs with Ichiro after his rookie season.)

Maybe the guy was a bad teammate? I know one Mariners fan, and he actually can’t stand Ichiro, saying he was a selfish player who worried about individual stats to the team’s detriment. Then again, I think a lot of fans of bad teams say that about their stars.

Remembering a guy who played for both the Phillies and Mariners

Mike Sweeney was a multiple-time All-Star for the Kansas City Royals. The first baseman had elite on-base skills and could be counted on for 20+ home runs a season. By the time he signed with the Mariners before the 2009 season, he was 35 years old and clearly in decline.

Mostly used as a bench bat, Sweeney was solid for the Mariners, with an OPS of .784 and 14 home runs in 104 games. In late 2010, the Mariners were out of contention, while Ryan Howard had to go on the Injured List, so the Phillies sent some cash the Mariners way and added Sweeney for the stretch run.

Sweeney’s time with the Phillies was mostly unmemorable, but he did hit a home run in the division-clinching victory against the Nationals, and he had a single in his only postseason at bat during the NLDS.

After the season, Sweeney retired and returned to the Royals in a front office job.

Do not want

Speaking of Arozarena, there were rumors that the Phillies could have traded for him before the deadline. That obviously didn’t happen, but it remains possible that they pursue the outfielder in free agency this offseason. But he’s 31 years of age, has been a good, not great hitter throughout his career, is enjoying a career best season heading into free agency, and is rated poorly on defense.

That sounds somewhat similar to a free agent outfielder the Phillies signed before the 2022 season, and for the most part, that move didn’t work out so well.

Additional thought about the series

Flying to Seattle and starting a series without an off day is tough, but with the Phillies on a roll, maybe that’s for the best. There have been many debates about how real momentum is in baseball, but generally when a team is doing well, you don’t want to get them out of their routine. (Though a cross-country flight and changing time zones probably qualifies as getting them out of their routine.)

We know the Phillies are going to lose at some point (right?) and I assumed that was going to happen on Sunday. But the offense decided to just win the game dramatically instead.

I think the team is due for an absolute stinker of a game where they just suffer a week’s worth of misfortune in one night. I hope that doesn’t happen on Monday, because it would be nice to see Zack Wheeler look good after about a month of shakiness. On the other hand, with the games starting late, I probably won’t be able to see the entire affair. So maybe it would be nice for them to get the stinkiness out of their system while I’m asleep.

Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown knew this day was coming, and there was nothing that was going to save it.

Not a postseason berth.

Not a deep October run.

Not a downtown parade celebrating their third World Series title in 10 years.

So after a horrific homestand, losing six of their last eight games to three of the worst teams in the American League – the Athletics, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners – Astros owner Jim Crane pulled the plug Monday.

Brown was fired, although it was announced as a mutual parting of the ways. He was informed of the decision Sunday night, they agreed to call it a mutual parting Monday morning, and he was already packing his bags and taking off for his home in New Jersey.

It was the Astros' 7-6 defeat Sunday to the lowly Athletics, blowing a 6-0 lead, that sent Crane over the top, believing that if they had any chance of reaching the playoffs, drastic changes needed to be made.

While one high-ranking Astros official said that Joe Espada will not receive a new contract after the season, Espada’s status is unchanged and he will remain as manager, and a decision by Crane will be made after the season. The Astros are 65-66 and tied for first place in the AL West.

The Cubs were involved in four walk-off games of the six they played against the White Sox and Mariners over the past week.

Unfortunately, since the latter series was on the road, the Cubs won only two of those four walk-offs.

And even though they went just 3-3 on the week, they scored 39 runs in the six games — though the last five of those were off Mariners position players. Nevertheless, they count just the same.

Here’s who was hot and not for the Cubs over the past week.

Three up

Pete Crow-Armstrong does it all

PCA led off a game with a first-pitch home run. PCA walked off a game with a home run. And that was the same game! [VIDEO]

Overall for the week, the Cubs center fielder batted .375/.483/1.083 (9-for-24) with two doubles, five home runs, eight RBI, six runs scored, five walks and two stolen bases. That might just be enough to win him another NL Player of the Week award. He’s now up to 8.1 bWAR (8.7 fWAR).

David Peterson continues to shine

Peterson, temporarily moved to the bullpen when Edward Cabrera temporarily returned to the rotation, threw a key 1.1 scoreless innings last Monday against the White Sox, then returned to starting and threw six innings against the Mariners Saturday, allowing two runs and striking out eight [VIDEO].

Since his disastrous start against the Cardinals July 3, Peterson has a 2.20 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in eight games (seven starts) covering 41 innings. Even including that awful Cardinals game, he’s got a 3.93 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 10 games (nine starts) with the Cubs.

Aaron Civale has quietly been very good with the Cubs

Civale kept Sunday’s game in order with four one-hit innings until the Cubs bats turned it into a blowout. He also kept last Wednesday’s game against the White Sox close with 1.1 scoreless innings, though the Cubs ultimately could not come back and win that one.

He has a 1.80 ERA and 1.050 WHIP (2.84 FIP) in nine games for the Cubs covering 20 innings, with five walks and 18 strikeouts. He also threw well in five games for the Cubs last September.

If Civale would agree to come back to the Cubs in 2027 in this role, I think he’d be quite good at it.

Hat tip to Ian Happ, who went 6-for-20 with two home runs over the six games. If this is the start of one of Happ’s hot streaks, it’s coming at a very good time.

And another H/T for Alex Bregman: .360/.414/.760 (9-for-25) with three home runs in the six games. Bregman’s season OPS is up to .767.

Three down

Where’s the Kevin Gausman the Cubs traded for?

In three starts for the Cubs, Gausman has one good start, one mediocre outing and one bad one. This past week was the mediocre game, seven hits and three runs in 4.1 innings, with 86 pitches thrown.

He’s going to start tonight against the Diamondbacks. Hoping for better things.

Back to the drawing board for Ryan Zeferjahn

In his two appearances for the Cubs in these six games, Zeferjahn blew a save against the White Sox (in the game PCA won with his 10th-inning walk-off homer) and gave up the game-winning hit to Leo Rivas of the Mariners Friday.

Zeferjahn has talent, but… maybe the Cubs will have to wait until 2027 to make the best use of it.

The entire American League is killing the Cubs

The Cubs are 54-32 (.628) against NL teams and 21-24 in interleague play.

The Brewers are 54-35 (.607) against NL teams and 27-15 in interleague play.

Thus the entire difference between the Cubs and Brewers can be accounted for in their record vs. American League teams. The Cubs are the only National League team currently in a postseason position to not have a winning record in interleague contests.

Perhaps fortunately for the Cubs, they have just one series left vs. an AL team, the last three games of the regular season at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. The Brewers have two — they will host the Rangers this weekend, then play at Baltimore Sept. 18-19-20.

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Happy Monday! Let's kick this week off on a high note!

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB player propsfor Monday, Aug. 24, including why I expect Parker Messick to shove this evening in Los Angeles.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Parker Messick	Over 6.5 strikeouts	-158
Kody Clemens	Over 1.5 total bases	+115
Ryan Feltner	Under 3.5 strikeouts	+110

Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-158)

The obsession continues with backing Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick, but he keeps finding himself in shove spots. Tonight, he draws one of baseball's most swing-happy lineups, the Los Angeles Angels.

Messick has been on an absolute tear over his last three starts, posting a 32% strikeout rate. Over his last five outings, he sports a 29% strikeout rate, with 30% of his pitches ending in either a swinging strike or called strike and a near-70% first-pitch strike rate.

The very aggressive southpaw faces an Angels lineup that features eight hitters with at least a 21.7% strikeout rate, including four who strike out 32.8% of the time or more. Overall, the team has a 25.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. On top of that, they also own a 74% contact rate and 31.5% O-Swing rate.

If you are not in the juice-paying business, take this up to 7.5 for plus money. The near 5-to-1 price for 10 strikeouts is pretty intriguing as well.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CLEG, ABTV

Kody Clemens Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Oh no, a lefty-on-lefty matchup! Stop crying.

Minnesota Twins first baseman — and son of "The Rocket" — Kody Clemens is in a great spot against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs in Sacramento.

Clemens has a .596 xSLG and a 29.6% ground-ball rate, while generating a 52% hard-hit rate and nearly 15% barrel rate over his last 10 games. Over his last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, the 30-year-old has a .300 BA, .500 SLG and .800 OPS.

Springs has struggled against left-handed hitters, with a 9.82 ERA and 7.16 xFIP while allowing 2.46 HR/9 in his 60 most recent left-on-left matchups. Those lefties have a .285 xBA, .449 xSLG, and .279 ISO.

At +115 for two bases, this is a great price for a guy who is more than capable of a big game. Take this down to +105.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, NBCSCA

Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner owns the worst average strikeout rate at Batters-Box for today's slate.

Today marks his 27th game with a poorly rated strikeout rate. In the previous 26, he stayed under 3.5 strikeouts 50% of the time. He has also stayed under this prop in eight of his last 10 poorly rated strikeout rates.

Feltner has a much higher strikeout rate on the road, at 15.20% this year. However, in his last three outings, his strikeout rate is below 10%.

The Washington Nationals have only two bats above a 20% strikeout rate in their last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher.

Unders are always sweaty, but snagging this at plus money will make up for it.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, NATS

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With Jose Urquidy coming off a dominant outing, the Chicago White Sox enter tonight's matchup against the Texas Rangers as -126 favorites at Rate Field.  First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. 

My Rangers vs White Sox predictions have full confidence in Chicago here as it faces the shaky Kumar Rocker. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, August 24. 

Who will win Rangers vs White Sox today: White Sox (-126)

The Texas Rangers hand Kumar Rocker the baseball this evening, and he is not exactly consistent. The right-hander owns a 5.28 FIP across his last two starts while allowing 5.40 BB/9, putting himself in trouble too often.

The Chicago White Sox are showing real promise at the dish, carrying a .209 ISO and 117 wRC+ over their last 13 contests.

Jose Urquidy just came over in a trade, and after a rough debut, he tossed six scoreless innings last week. He was more of a reliever before arriving in Chicago, but the White Sox bullpen profile is promising with a 3.37 FIP over its last 38 1/3 frames.

Chicago has the cleaner full-game profile, and I would take this up to -150. 

COVERS INTEL: Rocker has allowed 1.80 HR/9 across his last five appearances, compared to 1.26 HR/9 overall this season. His homer issues are dangerous against a flourishing Chicago lineup. 

Rangers vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

Chicago’s offense may be swinging it well, but the same cannot be said for Texas. The Rangers have a horrible 77 wRC+ across the last week, and the White Sox bullpen has been solid lately.

Rocker may give up some runs amid his command and homer issues, but Texas’ relief corps can help keep the damage in check once he exits. The Rangers’ bullpen owns a 3.19 FIP over its last 19 2/3 innings of work.

With Texas struggling badly at the dish, this points to a lower-scoring contest where Chicago does most of the damage.

Play this pick up to -140.

Rangers vs White Sox home run prediction: Miguel Vargas (+414)

Miguel Vargas has been a consistent power outlet for the White Sox all season. While he has only gone deep once in his previous seven contests, the underlying metrics suggest he could punish Rocker or potentially a Texas reliever.

The slugger owns a 52.9% hard-hit rate and 17.6% barrel rate over the last week while putting 47.1% of his contact in the air. Rocker’s HR problems are evident, and he has also allowed a 45% fly-ball rate over the last month.

The Rangers’ pen is not as vulnerable to the long ball, but it has given up a 15.2% barrel rate over the last week, which hints at some danger.

Play this pick to +300.

Rangers vs White Sox weather

Weather at Rate Field looks cool and clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 71 F to around 68 F. Winds are light around 6–7 mph, and rain chances sit at 0% throughout the game window. Conditions should be neutral overall, with no delay concern.

Rangers vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Rangers +114 | White Sox -126
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (-186) | White Sox -1.5 (+158)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-121)

Rangers vs White Sox trend

The Chicago White Sox have hit the moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. White Sox.

How to watch Rangers vs White Sox and game info

Rangers vs White Sox latest injuries

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What a difference a week makes, 168 little hours. After a particularly deflating home series loss the Milwaukee Brewers, the Dodgers haven’t lost since. They took care of business by sweeping a pair of bad teams in the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Dodgers are back to within a game of the Brewers for the top seed in the National League, and Los Angeles now has a four-game lead on the NL East-leading Braves, with a three-game series in Atlanta next up.

Batter of the week

Max Muncy homered twice and drove in seven runs, putting up a tidy 1.312 OPS.

Honorable mention to Shohei Ohtani, who homered three times and stole two bases, and to Alek Thomas, who was called up to fill in for an injured Andy Pages and has an RBI single in both games with the Dodgers thus far.

Pitcher of the week

Blake Snell allowed one run in his two starts, and has provided more rotation stability with three six-inning starts in three tries since returning from the injured list.

Honorable mention to Tarik Skubal’s best start with the Dodgers to date, and to Yoshinobu Yamamoto with another nine-strikeout start on Friday.

Week 22 results

6-0 record
37 runs scored (6.17 per game)
22 runs allowed (3.67 per game)
.721 pythagorean win percentage

Year to date

80-51 record
653 runs scored (4.98 per game)
502 runs allowed (3.83 per game)
.612 pythagorean win percentage (81-50)

Miscellany

Thirty in threes: On Tuesday at Coors Field in Denver, Shohei Ohtani hit his third home run of the series against the Rockies and his 30th of the season. Coupled with his 54 home runs in 2024 and 55 homers in 2025, Ohtani has at least 30 home runs in all three years with the Dodgers, and six seasons in a row going back to 2021. Ohtani is the seventh Dodger to hit at least 30 home runs three years in a row, and the first since Gary Sheffield from 1999-2001.

Walking the pLAnk: The Dodgers beat the Pirates in all three games over the weekend, continuing a trend. Dodger Stadium has been mostly nightmare fuel for the Pirates for a decade. The Dodgers are 23-5 (.821) against the Pirates in Los Angeles since 2017, with six sweeps and eight series wins at home against the Pirates in nine tries.

Transactions

Tuesday: After struggling for three weeks in his returned from one IL stint, Edwin Díaz landed back on the injured list with neck inflammation. Emmet Sheehan returned to the Dodgers, now in a relief role.

Wednesday: Right-hander Brock Stewart returned to the bullpen after missing three weeks with shoulder discomfort. Jonathan Hernández was designated for assignment for a third time this season.

Friday: The dance continued for Hernández, who cleared waivers and was sent outright to Oklahoma City.

Friday: Another fresh arm came up in the form of Paul Gervase, and Sheehan was optioned back to Oklahoma City after not pitching in his two games active.

Saturday: A 100-mph fastball broke the left hand of Andy Pages, who will miss at least four weeks. Up came Alek Thomas to fill in the bulk of innings in center field.

Game results

• Monday: Dodgers 11, Rockies 5
• Tuesday: Dodgers 7, Rockies 6
• Wednesday: Dodgers 6, Rockies 4 (10 innings)
• Friday: Dodgers 5, Pirates 4 (10 innings)
• Saturday: Dodgers 4, Pirates 3
• Sunday: Dodgers 4, Pirates 0

Previous reviews: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | no reviews for Weeks 14-15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21

Up next

After a brief weekend at home, the Dodgers are back on the road to run the Doyle Alexander gauntlet, hitting the road to face the Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers. Tarik Skubal lines up to pitch against his old team on Friday night at Comerica Park. Tyler Glasnow is back off he injured list on Tuesday, and Shohei Ohtani will likely pitch an inning to start Sunday in Detroit if all goes well with his bullpen session in Atlanta.

The Chicago White Sox have been the most fun team to watch in Major League Baseball this season, with their 11th walk-off win of the season on Sunday afternoon thanks to a Tristan Peters solo homer in the bottom of the ninth.  It also helped move Chicago’s record to 27-19 in one run games.  

This was also the 21st White Sox comeback win, defined by games where they either were tied, or down by up to three runs, heading into the seventh inning or later before rallying. It shows how resilient this young White Sox team has been throughout this season, with eight different players providing walk-off hits, including both Peters and Edgar Quero as the only ones to do so multiple times.

They have three players in the heart of their lineup in Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery who will all have 30+ home runs by the end of the season.  It is not any of them, but Tristan Peters, who with his walk-off home run on Sunday became the only player on the White Sox to have three walk-off hits, and two of them walk-off home runs.

Peters began his walk-off magic months ago, finishing off the home opener with a GWRBI single in the 10th inning:

Peters has been one of the most unsung players of this Sox team this year, in July also becoming one of only four players this year to hit for the cycle, and just the seventh player in franchise history to do so.

Of all the surprising players to emerge this season for the White Sox, Peters has to be one of the most wholesome surprises.  As the one-time Savannah Bananas player (who also used his old Savannah Bananas bat for Players’ Weekend), Peters has the unique distinction of being their only player to make a jump to the majors. And Peters hasn’t just made the majors, but went to the All-Star Game as a rookie! 

It was impossible to think that a year ago — or even months ago — Peters of all players would be a key piece, starring in center field, as the While Sox make a postseason push.

The seven-day, four-city, three-team road trip ended up nearly turning into a nightmare journey — one where it essentially came down to Sunday’s Little League Classic for the Atlanta Braves to at least salvage something from their series against the Milwaukee Brewers — and also for the whole trip as well. With the Phillies suddenly heating up like crazy and closing a huge amount of ground in a relatively short amount of time, the onus was on Atlanta to break out of their slump and make something happen — particularly at the plate.

We’ll have to see if the offense can carry what they did on Sunday into their next homestand but for now, it’s time to take a look at how this series against the Brewers went. It was always going to be tough considering that the Brewers are currently the pace-setters in baseball right now and it definitely ended up being difficult for Atlanta. How difficult was it? Let’s look and see.

Friday, August 21

Brewers 2, Braves 1

The Chris Sale vs. Jacob Misiorowski pitching matchup lived up to all of the hype, which is to say that runs were always going to be at a premium and sure enough, it was tough sledding for Atlanta at the plate. This was one of those cases where it really didn’t matter if the Braves were slumping or not, this was always going to be a tough assignment against The Miz.

Sure enough, Atlanta couldn’t really muster up much of anything against The Miz, as they only had two runners in scoring position where he was on the mound. Misiorowski finished with six scoreless innings (despite four hit sand two walks) and he left the game with the lead after Milwaukee pushed two runs across the plate back in the third inning. Chris Sale gave it another solid effort with just those two runs allowed across six innings but Milwaukee was able to make something happen with the eight hits that they picked up off of him and that proved to be the difference in this one.

The only run for Atlanta came in the eighth inning, which continued a worrying trend of Atlanta expending an incredible amount of effort in any given rally just to end up with one run at the end of it. Mike Yastrzemski led off with a walk against Antonio Senzatela and then a couple of two-out singles saw the Braves get on the board after Michael Harris II pushed across a run with an RBI single. Ozzie Albies then walked to load up the bases and the right guy came up to the plate in the form of Mauricio Dubón. Dubón’s stats with two men on and runners in scoring position have been truly eye-popping so far this season but unfortunately, he was unable to make any two-out magic happen in this situation and then Atlanta went down quietly for yet another loss during this road trip.

Saturday, August 22

Brewers 4, Braves 1

In a moment of brief brilliance, the Braves actually came out swinging in the first inning and actually took a lead for once! Indeed, Michael Harris II’s RBI double off of Brewers starter Logan Henderson brought home Drake Baldwin and there was maybe a glimmer of hope that Atlanta’s lineup could actually do some damage for the first time in what felt like a long time.

Instead, that was as good as it got for Atlanta as the offense proceeded to flail about for the rest of the game. With the Braves continuing to struggle mightily at the plate, this one came down to the third inning — particularly, a 12-pitch battle between Jake Bauers and Martín Pérez with two outs on the board and the game tied at one run apiece. Pérez got out to a 1-2 count after three pitches and then Bauers proceeded to foul off seen straight pitches before he finally got a fastball in the zone to feast upon. 413 feet later, the Brewers had a 3-1 lead (which started after a leadoff error, mind you) and after they added on a sacrifice fly in the fourth inning, that three-run lead for Milwaukee may as well have been 30.

For the third time in six games, the Braves were held to just one run and for the fifth time in six games on this road trip, the Braves were domed to defeat.

Sunday, August 23

Braves 4, Brewers 2

The two teams switched venues for the Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Hopefully, the idyllic views and fun atmosphere helped to affect a bit of a much-needed vibe shift for Atlanta’s lineup, which was struggling mightily heading into this one. The good news is that the Braves did score runs again and managed to actually keep it going somewhat consistently across the game but at the same time, it was also another case of the Braves needing both a ton of energy and a ton of luck in order to put runs on the board.

The first run was plated by Mauricio Dubón in the second inning, which is when he hit a deep fly ball that just about stayed fair for a ground-rule double in order to bring home Ozzie Albies. Jake Bauers tied it up with an RBI single of his own in the third inning but then the Braves responded in the fourth inning to reclaim the lead.

Again, it took a ton of effort and a lot of work for Atlanta to get this run across the board, despite Drake Baldwin leading off the fourth with a double and Lane Thomas joining him with a single. Following two rough at-bats, Sean Murphy came up to the plate and seemingly made it three rough at-bats in a row. Instead, David Hamilton slipped on the grass while trying to field it from third base and just like that, Atlanta was back in the lead thanks to the lucky break. The sixth inning saw the Braves add onto that lead in similar fashion — a one-out walk and single put ducks on the pond but a seemingly-innocuous grounder from Money Mike sure looked like another scoring opportunity would be wasted. Instead, it was Andrew Vaughn’s turn for a defensive gaffe and as a result of his error, another run scored for Atlanta. It’s lucky but that’s baseball!

Fortunately, the insurance run that the Braves added on after their lead was cut to one following the bottom of the eighth inning didn’t require much luck at all. in fact, it was something that we haven’t seen from the Braves for a few days: A home run! Money Mike deposited one into the night sky in Williamsport for a huge insurance run in the top of the ninth.

While this was going on, Raisel Iglesias was in the midst of a four-out save attempt. As usual whenever Iglesias has to deal with a leadoff runner, things got extremely scary — especially when William Contreras (who had tormented the Braves for this entire series) hit a deep fly ball to center with two men on. Michael Harris II scampered all the way out there to make the catch and then Mauricio Dubón helped turn an impressive double play in order to ensure that the Braves would at least return home with something from this tough series against the Brewers.

So yeah, that was a tough week! It was exacerbated by the fact that the Philadelphia Phillies apparently decided once they were 9.5 games down in the standings to never ever lose again — especially so on Sunday when they somehow managed to turn a 4-0 deficit with two outs (and two strikes, mind you) against the Cardinals into an astonishing 6-4 victory. As such, due to Philadelphia’s rapid ascent and an ill-timed downturn from Atlanta, the Braves are once again having to deal with a green blob in red pinstripes breathing down their necks — right before September begins and they have to play each other seven times. Great.

Anyways, if you had told me before last week’s road trip started that Atlanta would only end up simply avoiding a sweep against the Brewers, I would’ve taken it. As of right now, I’m still thrilled that they didn’t get swept — but that’s only because things got off to such a terrible start when Atlanta’s offensive struggles essentially doomed them to a sweep at the hands of the Twins to start this road trip. The Braves needed to at least salvage a win against Milwaukee if only to sort of stave off the impending sense of doom that has come from the aforementioned downturn in Atlanta’s fortunes and the upturn in Philadelphia’s fortunes.

They managed to do so but now it’s time to figure out if the offense can come back to life at some point. The pitching staff came up huge throughout this entire road trip and if there’s an solace that you can take from this road trip, it’s the fact that none of these games were blowouts and that’s largely down to the Braves continuing to pitch really well as a staff. Tyler Mahle’s performance during the Little League Classic was very solid and it’s hard to lay the blame at anybody who was throwing a baseball from a mound during this week.

Instead, the offense has to recover if this team is going to get back on track. Sure, they’re still in first place but with a tough schedule staring them down for the rest of the season, the lineup has to get back on track. It’ll definitely be tough with the Dodgers coming to town to start this week’s homestand but hey, as a blond man who wore a bunch of fancy robes used to say, “To be The Man, you gotta beat The Man,” and that’s what Atlanta’s going to have to do if they want to get back on track. The toughest road trip of the season ended up being very tough and now the Braves have no choice but to figure out a way how to bounce back.

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The Tampa Bay Rays are priced as a -137 moneyline favorite for tonight's series opener at Comerica Park against the Detroit Tigers, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. 

Behind the very consistent Drew Rasmussen, my Rays vs. Tigers predictions back Tampa to win this contest. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, August 24. 

Who will win Rays vs Tigers today: Rays (-137)

The Tampa Bay Rays send Drew Rasmussen to the hill, and while he has given up more runs than usual lately, the underlying numbers are still solid. The right-hander owns a 3.98 FIP over his previous two outings and a 2.41 xERA over the last month.

During that span, Rasmussen has held opponents to a 28.6% hard-hit rate and 2.9% barrel rate. He also faces a Detroit Tigers lineup with just an 87 wRC+ over its last six games.

As for Framber Valdez, he is in poor form. The left-hander has surrendered 7.15 BB/9 across his last two starts while allowing a 51.4% hard-hit rate and posting a 5.47 FIP. 

Tampa Bay has the edge.

Play up to -150.

COVERS INTEL: The Rays have an 111 wRC+ across their last 13 games, a tad higher than their season average of 105 wRC+. They're in good enough offensive form to punish the struggling Valdez. 

Rays vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 runs (-112)

It’s a modest 7.5 total, and the Over has value given the possibility of late-game runs. Both of these bullpens are extremely vulnerable right now.

Detroit’s relief corps has a 5.48 FIP across the last week while allowing an alarming 2.49 HR/9. Tampa Bay’s pen isn’t much better, compiling a 5.16 FIP during that same span while giving up 2.00 HR/9.

Even if Rasmussen deals as I expect, Detroit has a real opportunity to score late. As for Tampa Bay, Valdez’s command issues and the Tigers’ shaky bullpen give the Rays a clear path to tack on runs.

Play this pick up to -140.

Rays vs Tigers home run prediction: Kevin McGonigle (+510)

Kevin McGonigle is an intriguing home run option tonight because he's putting the ball in the air. The youngster has two bombs in his last six games with a ridiculous 69.6% fly-ball rate during that span.

Additionally, McGonigle owns a 47.8% hard-hit rate and 17.4% barrel rate over the last week. While Rasmussen does not give up many homers, the Rays’ pen, as previously discussed, is struggling to keep opponents in the ballpark.

With McGonigle hot and consistently lifting the ball, he has a path to punish a mistake.

Rays vs Tigers weather

Weather at Comerica Park looks pretty clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting in the mid-70s before dipping to around 73°F by 9 p.m. ET. Winds are moderate early, around 10–12 mph, before easing later, and rain chances are extremely low. Overall, conditions look playable with minimal delay risk.

Rays vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Rays -137 | Tigers +124
• Run line: Rays -1.5 (+129) | Tigers +1.5 (-142)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-112)| Under 7.5 (-103)

Rays vs Tigers trend

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 away games (+10.15 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Tigers.

How to watch Rays vs Tigers and game info

Rays vs Tigers latest injuries

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