The Yankees jumped through the Wild Card Series without incident, sweeping the Red Sox away in a 2-0 result that featured a 16-run differential, but they’re facing a much-tougher task now that they’re up against the Rays in the ALDS. Tampa Bay quieted their offensive momentum completely in Game 1, Drew Rasmussen pitching a one-hit masterpiece over eight innings, but if they ever found a pulse in that game it was eminently winnable as Tampa had only scored one run for themselves on a Jonathan Aranda home run against Gerrit Cole. Game 2 is on deck later tonight, and while it remains a crucial one for the Yankees to win to avoid putting their backs to the wall, the season is far from over after one ugly game.
Plenty of questions were raised after getting punched in the face by the Rays though, and if the Yankees’ playoff hopes get to continue beyond this week they’ll have to answer them in rapid succession. Can their offense do more than hope to wear out opposing starters and feast on relief pitching? Will they need a gem from every starter they send out on the mound to have a chance of advancing? Who can be the spark plug in a game like Saturday’s when its clear that things aren’t working out? If you have questions like these, or anything else on your mind, send ‘em in for a chance to be featured in our Yankees mailbag.
Answers will run on Friday afternoon. All questions received by the night of October 8th will be considered. You can leave your submissions in the comment section below or by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.
Oct 7, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of the ALDS logo on the field in game three of the 2019 ALDS playoff baseball series between New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
After the Braves tied up their series with the Dodgers 1-1 and the Brewers took a 2-0 lead on the Padres on Sunday, the American League Division Series are on tap today.
After the Rays beat the Yankees 1-0 and the White Sox beat the Guardians 3-0 on Saturday, all four teams got an off day on Sunday. Chicago used five pitchers to hold Cleveland scoreless and Munetaka Murakami hit a two-run homer to carry the White Sox to victory in Game 1. Drew Rasmussen threw eight scoreless innings, giving up one hit and striking out 10 Yankees for the Rays, who got the one run they needed from a Jonathan Aranda homer.
With Game 2 for both series taking place today, will the pitchers continue to dominate? Or will the offenses show up?
Chicago White Sox (0-0) at Cleveland Guardians (0-0) — 3 p.m. MDT
Pitching Matchup: Anthony Kay (10-9, 4.44 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA)
Have blessing, will travel: These Sox fans came 340 miles for Mike Vasil’s magic. Hopefully, the pixie dust covers another win in Cleveland. | (David Richard/Reuters Connect)
The White Sox have already taken over home-field advantage. Now, how about stealing Cleveland’s peace of mind?
After sweeping the Astros out of the Wild Card Series, the South Siders blazed into Cleveland and grabbed Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday. Grant Taylor supplied four scoreless frames of absolute filth, while Munetaka Murakami launched a two-run, 112.2 mph bomb that I’m pretty sure still hasn’t landed.
Three postseason games, three wins. The Good Guys are making this October thing look pretty fun.
Today, they have a chance to head home with a 2-0 lead and put the Guardians one loss away from cleaning out their lockers. There’s plenty of work left, but making our division rivals sweat through an otherwise lovely fall afternoon sounds like a worthwhile activity.
Anthony Kay will serve as the opener, with Sean Burke expected to take over for bulk work. Apparently, escaping postseason bases-loaded jams earns you a promotion around here. El Duque Lite has already helped the Sox out of trouble in Wild Card Game 2 and ALDS Game 1. It would be nice to let Kay pitch without the entire neighborhood standing on the bases for once.
Having already worked two innings this postseason, Kay likely won’t go more than a couple of frames before handing things off. The veteran southpaw has been particularly stingy against Cleveland this season, surrendering just three earned runs over 20 innings across four starts and holding the Guardians to a .171 batting average.
His Baseball Savant profile isn’t exactly a sea of red, but there are tools here to get the job done. His sinker grades best among his pitches, sitting in the 67th percentile in run value, while his ability to coax hitters into chasing ranks in the 75th percentile. The approach should be to establish strikes early, use the sinker to generate ground balls and make the Guardians reach for pitches they can’t drive.
The catch is that getting hitters to chase hasn’t translated into piles of strikeouts. Kay sits in the 20th percentile in K rate and 36th in whiff rate, so he won’t be turning every plate appearance into a punchout. His xERA and xBA also rank near the bottom, a reminder that his excellent results against Cleveland don’t give him much room to get sloppy. Give the defense something manageable, keep the free passes down and hand Burke a clean game.
And please, keep traffic off the bases in front of José Ramírez. Kay has already performed enough postseason escape acts. Let’s try an inning without the handcuffs today.
Will Venable is sticking with the strategy that has gotten the Sox this far. Burke’s four-inning start in Wild Card Game 2 remains their only traditional starting assignment of the postseason. Otherwise, it’s been all hands on deck, with the next pitcher ready whenever the situation calls for him. We’ll see whether the third outing with that approach produces another win — and whether our blood pressure survives it.
Cleveland will counter with Gavin Williams, the No. 23 overall pick in the 2021 draft. The 27-year-old righthander finished the regular season 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 32 starts.
This will be Chicago’s fifth look at Williams in 2026. The South Siders slashed .227/.318/.320 against him in their previous four meetings, so they know firsthand that stringing together hits isn’t easy. Their last encounter, Sept. 14 in Cleveland, ended with Williams taking the loss despite allowing only two runs on four hits, with two hit batters, three walks and seven strikeouts.
That game offers a useful reminder: The Sox don’t have to knock him all over the ballpark to beat him.
Williams’ Savant card practically flashes a warning sign when it comes to strikeouts: 97th percentile in K rate, 94th in whiff rate and 81st in chase rate. His four-seamer has both velocity and results behind it, while his sweeper ranks in the 98th percentile in run value. After the All-Star break, he was one of the best in strikeouts, with a 14.5 K/9. So, for the Good Guys to be successful, they can’t spend the afternoon waving at breaking balls off the plate. That would make his job entirely too easy.
But there’s a pretty big opening beneath all that swing-and-miss. Williams sits in the first percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, third in barrel rate and 12th in average exit velocity allowed. Making contact is the hard part. When hitters do connect, they’ve been capable of absolutely smoking the baseball. Looking at you, Mune and Colson Montgomery.
That makes selective aggression the assignment. Work the count, make Williams bring the ball into the zone and be ready to hammer a mistake. Patience shouldn’t mean watching a hittable strike sail past, especially against someone with this many ways to finish an at-bat. Look for something to drive early, then refuse to expand the zone when he tries to tempt them with that sweeper.
His cutter and sinker have graded much less favorably than his four-seamer and sweeper, so those could offer opportunities if he turns to them. Still, the goal is to punish location mistakes, not assume any particular pitch is batting practice. Make those plate appearances expensive and cash in when he gives the Sox an opening.
A walk and one loud swing can do plenty of damage. Murakami was kind enough to demonstrate that last part Saturday.
Chase Meidroth has been leading the postseason charge with a .364/.417/.636 slash line and 1.053 OPS. Colson has also delivered, including a clutch double in Game 1. Meanwhile, Mike Vasil and his magic wand need to send a little pixie dust toward Miguel Vargas and Braden Montgomery, whose bats have been on the cooler side. Miggy did reach three times Saturday with two walks and a single, though. We’ll happily take that kind of contribution while waiting for the extra-base hits.
The formula remains familiar: Make their pitcher work, capitalize on mistakes and keep the free passes under control. Another Murakami souvenir headed toward a neighboring ZIP code wouldn’t hurt, either.
First pitch is scheduled for 4 p.m. CT on another perfect fall day, with sunshine and temperatures in the low 60s. Catch the game on TBS, truTV, UniMás or HBO Max, or listen to the local radio call on ESPN Chicago 1000.
Clear the afternoon calendar. The Good Guys have a chance to bring home something much better than a split.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 04: Blake Snell #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks off the mound during the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves in game two of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 04, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The good news is that the Dodgers’ primary doomsday scenarios (San Diego winning or getting swept à la 2023) are either extremely unlikely to happen or mathematically impossible.
A champion contender taking a commanding 2-0 NLDS series lead, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat? What a game. Oh wait. I’m thinking of the almost criminal—if it were against the law— mismanagement of the Padres’ super bullpen by Craig “Likely needs to update his resume ASAP” Stammen on Sunday.
Where one side of the bracket that was expected to be a five-game dogfight now looks to be all but over before it really got started, the other side of the bracket that was all but handed to the Dodgers now looks to be a dogfight.
The bad news is that the only scenario left is arguably the most annoying, and oddly enough, it feels like the Dodgers somehow snatched defeat out of the confused jaws of victory.
Echoes of 2022 or The Bye Week was for that?!?
As an aside, when do the pitchforks start coming out for Blake Snell?
The phrase “Playoff Kershaw” justifiably rankles feathers within the Dodgers community. Whether it was fair or not, the fact remains that Kershaw was often put into a position to get lit up. And he wasn’t consistently awful. While Jack Flaherty and Bobby Miller also had their playoff duds, they either were passable at times or never got another chance.
Not so with Blake Snell, who somehow seems to have unjustifiably dodged criticism. With Game 2’s execrable performance, Snell has laid an egg in his last three consecutive postseason starts.
Game 1, 2025 World Series: L, 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP, HR
Game 5, 2025 World Series: L, 6 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 7 K, 2 HR, 2 WP
Game 1, 2026 NLDS: ND, 3 2/3 IP, 3 H, ER, 5 BB, 5 K
Those are some ugly pitching lines. Yes, Snell did pitch 1 1/3 IP in Game 7…and nearly gave up what would have been Vlad Guerrero, Jr.’s last home run at Rogers Centre until Game 150 of the 2026 campaign.
If one were looking for a positive, at least he didn’t cough up five runs again this time. That happenstance is likely due to Dave Roberts mercifully pulling the plug on Snell’s evening rather than any heroics on Snell’s part. As things stand, Snell is probably done this series, which, all things considered, is probably a good thing.
Overall, my mind just goes back to a dud of a Game 2 with a left-handed starter who underperformed, with Robert Suarez shoving with the game on the line, the Dodgers’ offense underperforming, and the Dodgers coughing up home-field advantage?
Last night? No, Game 2 of the infamous 2022 NLDS, where a hungrier opponent outplayed a suddenly flat Dodgers squad to win what turned out to be the final game at Dodger Stadium in 2022.
This current team has so many 2022 vibes, I’m half expecting baseball texts from my deceased father. If the current iteration of the Dodgers is not careful, last night’s dud could be the final game at Dodger Stadium both this year and for a long time with the impending lockout in December.
The same old song.
Let’s not belabor the point; I saw this outcome as a possibility:
Conversely, I can see how [the 2026 Dodgers] would fall flat on their face. You did too; it was called the Summer Swoon. What if everyone I just mentioned plus Shohei Ohtani couldn’t hit water from a boat? That failure, especially with runners in scoring position, would likely do it.
The team has gone 0-9 with runners in scoring position, while leaving 13 runners on base in two games. The Dodgers have only scored by home run this series. Don’t need a rocket scientist or a brain surgeon to figure this one out.
This essay is not to take anything away from Atlanta, but it’s more an indictment that the Dodgers had a 2-0 lead just waiting for them, begging for them to take it, only to get stifled by persistent issues that were never adequately addressed.
If the last couple of nights have given any semblance of a theme, it’s this: too much emphasis on hero ball, not enough emphasis on passing the baton to put up a crooked number. I lost track of how many meatballs were spit on and how many swings at pitches well outside the zone occurred. Take your walks, people! Also, if there has been a pitching change, maybe look at a couple of pitches rather than swinging first pitch.
It feels odd to criticize the Dodgers for self-centered play, but Game 2 showcased every wart that I have been complaining about for six months.
Leaving scores of runners on base? Check.
Not taking the extra base? Check. (Mookie Betts not stealing third base only to have two tailor-made sacrifice flies happen back-to-back will irk me for a while.)
Relying too much on beating the B squad? Check.
Relying too much on the home run? Check.
The pitching not being bailed out by the offensive offense? Check.
Lousy situational hitting? Check. Check. Check.
For lack of a better way to describe it, it feels like the Dodgers broke an unspoken compact. The team was generally bad for two months this summer and last summer. Yes, that mindset arguably ruins baseball, but in exchange for subpar play, the team is supposed to be ready for October.
Yes, the team won by the literal skin of its teeth last year against an upstart Toronto Blue Jays team that went from first to worst faster than you can say “flash in the pan 2021 San Francisco Giants.” Still, the losses last year felt more like “oh, this team is tired,” versus “oh, this team is flat.”
At least the 2022 team gave us a fun summer and a rollicking regular season campaign of 111 wins. This current team did not give us a fun summer. It felt more like a slog and an inevitability. The point is that if the team is going to sleepwalk through the summer, it’s to ensure that games like Game 2 do not happen.
So you’ve coughed up Home Field Advantage … again.
The Dodgers now head to Atlanta, where they did not play particularly well this year, getting swept in all three games. Truist Park will likely be rowdy as the Braves effectively worked the only gambit they had: do another bullpen game, as the Dodgers frittered away home-field advantage…again.
I had it in my head the Dodgers had been absolutely terrible at Truist Park since COVID, before checking and realizing the following:
2026 – 0-3
2025 – 2-1
2024 – 2-2
2023 – 2-1
2022 – 2-1
2021 – 1-2 / 0-3 (NLCS)
Overall, the Dodgers are 9-9 in the regular season and 0-3 in the postseason at Truist Park. Ironically enough, in my travels, where I have been the bane of the Mariners (5-0 lifetime) and Giants (8-16 lifetime), when it comes to Atlanta, I have never been present for a Dodgers victory.
Kershaw coughed up a lead in a game where Atlanta had four errors, and Trevor Bauer was ineffective in 2021. Bryce Elder kept the Dodgers at bay until Atlanta walked off the Dodgers in 2023. The good news for everyone involved is that I will be nowhere near Atlanta for the remaining two games of this series.
The bad news is while poor Stephen Nelson will have the radio call, there is not a single restaurant in the area that I can recommend. I was generally underwhelmed by the entire Battery neighborhood. If you’re going to make an entertainment district and somehow mimic the charms and hours of Fresno, California, did you really make an entertainment district at all?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto versus Chris Sale should be a duel of the ages. The problem is we saw that duel play out on August 27, when Sale made a first-inning home run stand up in a complete-game shutout. In order to retake control of this series, the Dodgers need to take advantage of their supposed depth to do something that they haven’t done all year: win in Atlanta.
Jul 28, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler (31) delivers a pitch during the first inning against New York Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler (31) at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
After Saturday’s controversial ending to Game 1 of the Padres and Brewers series, it looked like the Padres were going to even the series and put the roofball issue aside with a clean slate for the rest of the series. Instead, ace closer Mason Miller was tasked with getting six outs to and holding a 3-2 lead. Instead, he ran out of gas deep into the ninth inning as the Brewers put together a series of strong at-bats. Miller walked three in the inning and could only locate his slider, and even that was backing up on him as he presumably wore down. With the bases loaded Jackson Chourio fouled off a ferocious 103 mph fastball on the outer edge and down to stay alive. Miller missed with a slider and came back with 101 mph down the pipe. Chourio lined a single to right field, and two runs scored to give Milwaukee a commanding 2-0 lead in the best-of-five series.
On the other side, pitching also ruled in the Braves at Dodgers Game 2 matchup. With almost no starting pitching to work with, the Braves built a slim lead and held on with another bullpen game. Blake Snell was terrible, walking five in a short outing, but escaped with only a run allowed in his 3.2 innings of work. Yet his good fortune didn’t carry them to victory as the Braves added on single runs in the fifth and seventh inning. Ace reliever Didier Fuentes carried the Braves through 3.2 innings before finally giving up a solo shot to Max Muncy with two outs in the ninth, making it 3-2. Raisel Iglesias came on to get the final out, and so the series is even at a game apiece as they head to Atlanta for the next two games on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Monday afternoon, the American League side of the bracket gets back to work with the Rays and the White Sox each up 1-0 over their opponents.
The White Sox will look to put the Guardians in a deep 2-0 hole as they send LHP Anthony Kay (10-9, 4.44 ERA) against tough right-hander Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.75 ERA). That broadcast from Progressive Field starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on TBS.
Meanwhile the Yankees need their ace to win them a game against the Rays. RHP Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA) will take on a rejuvenated RHP Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA), who has pitched much better since the Rays acquired him from the Mets. That broadcast from Tropicana Field starts at 8:00 p.m. ET, also on TBS.
Join us here to chat about both games while we enjoy other fanbases’ problems and ignore the state of Detroit sports at the moment.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 11: General manager Mike Hazen of the Arizona Diamondbacks looks on prior to Game Three of the Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field on October 11, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the Arizona Diamondbacks’ campaign now in the books, it’s time to look back at all the moves made by GM Mike Hazen over the course of the year, and see which ones worked out for Arizona, and which ones don’t. I’m going off the list of transactions here, which basically begins after the end of the last World Series. Oddly, it doesn’t include the re-signing of Zac Gallen, but I’d like to forget all about that as well…
The best
#1. Traded RHP Jack Martinez to the Cardinals, for Nolan Arenado and cash.
Arenado’s time with St. Louis had been a mixed bag. He had finished 3rd in MVP voting in 2022, but 2023-25 he had averaged barely two bWAR, while earning St. Louis between $20-27 million. They wanted out from under the remaining two years, so heavily discounted them for Arizona. We paid $5 million, and got a player worth 3.4 bWAR – his best season since 2022. Nolan hit 30 homers, had a 122 OPS+, and might be a nominee for his 11th Gold Glove. Meanwhile, his replacement in St. Louis, Nolan Gorman, was below replacement level. Arizona has Arenado for 2027 at a very reasonable $6 million, but even if he spontaneously combusted today, we’ve got our money’s worth.
#2. Signed Jonathan Loaisiga as a free agent.
The day before, the team inked relief pitcher Loaisiga to a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training, after the Yankees declined to exercise his $5 million option. The decision was described at the time as an “easy decision… New York simply can’t hold any sort of confidence in his durability moving forward.” But you wonder if they might think otherwise now. For Loaisiga made the roster out of spring, and was a key component in the renaissance of the Diamondbacks bullpen. He proved perfectly durable, pitching 67 times, posting a 2.42 ERA and 2.88 FIP across 67 innings, worth 1.7 bWAR. He’ll get guaranteed money this winter, and won’t be cheap.
#3. Signed Michael Soroka as a free agent.
As we headed towards Opening Day, it seemed that Soroka’s role would be a minor way. After the late signing of Zac Gallen, he was expected to start in the bullpen, and the anticipated return of Corbin Burnes looked set to push Michael further down the depth chart. But he ended up starting 21 games for the D-backs, and pitched very well in those. He has an ERA of 3.41 (a 121 ERA+), a FIP that was lower still (3.18), and trailed only Eduardo Rodriguez among Arizona pitchers by bWAR, at 2.2. Even with incentives which added an extra $1.35 million onto his base salary of $7.5 million, he still proved a very worthwhile investment by Hazen.
#4. Signed Taylor Clarke as a free agent.
Another essential Clarke in the Arizona bullpen was Clarke, whose 70.2 relief innings led all pitchers for Arizona. And that doesn’t include his two games as an opener. It was a return home for Taylor, who had been drafted by the D-backs back in 2015, and debuted with the team in 2019. He came back after four years in the Royals organization, and had a strong campaign, working to a 2.96 ERA, even if his final outing, against the Padres was probably not the one he’ll want remembered. He didn’t strike out many, but he walked even fewer. A sub-one WHIP for any reliever with that many innings is always a good thing.
#5. Traded Daniel Eagen, Brian Curley and Sandro Santana to the Cardinals for Lars Nootbaar.
There was a lot of disappointment at the trade deadline when this was the only significant move made by Hazen. But say what you like, Nootbaar did the job for which he was asked, with an OPS+ of 113 across 42 games. That job was to hit right-handed pitching, and at an OPS of .800, he had the highest numbers there among any of the dozen left-handed batters tried by Arizona – and mostly found wanting, the group collectively having an OPS of .664. In particular, the Noot was better than the D-backs Big 3: vs. RHP, Geraldo Perdomo was at .762, Corbin Carroll .727, and Ketel Marte only .688. Not bad for Nootbaar, though the prospect cost was higher than I’d like.
The bad
#5. Signed Max Kepler as a free agent.
This entry is a personal one. I mean, Kepler only played 41 games for Arizona: how bad could he be? Well, pretty damn bad, with a .565 OPS (58 OPS+), and so was swiftly cut. However, he should never have been signed to begin with, performance entirely aside. For the team inked Kepler while he was still serving an 80-game suspension, for a positive test in January for Epitrenbolone. He had shown no remorse and offered no explanation (not even the “ringworm” defense). But Arizona still opted to throw years of a laudable position. consciously avoiding unrepentant PED cheats out the window, for… -0.6 bWAR.
#4. Traded Jake McCarthy to the Rockies for Josh Grosz.
Was torn between including this, or the Blaze Alexander trade. But our utility infielders were good enough I didn’t really miss Blaze much. Obviously, Jake’s numbers were severely inflated by Coors: his OPS outside of Colorado was 159 points lower. But even that .727 road OPS would have been welcome on the D-backs, especially with him being a left-handed hitter (though McCarthy actually had reverse splits this season). If we still had Jake, we probably would not have needed either to sign Kepler, or trade for Nootbaar, and McCarthy’s outfield defense was likely superior to both. Add his 1.9 bWAR, take off Kepler, and it’s more than the gap by which we missed the playoffs.
#3. Signed Carlos Santana as a free agent.
A deal worth only $2 million probably doesn’t deserve as prominent a place. But it was symptomatic of the black hole which was first-base for the Diamondbacks. I’m not clear exactly what Hazen’s plan was for the position, but if it featured Santana – a 40-year-old coming off a 78 OPS+ season – it seemed poorly considered and doomed from the start. And lo, it was a complete disaster, particularly in the early going. In mid-June, 74 games into the season. Arizona’s first-basemen had a .561 OPS – no team had posted a figure that low since 1920. Things improved a little thereafter, but our 1B still finished at .636, dead-last in the majors, with Ildemaro Vargas getting most playing-time. Santana? 2-for-24 in eight games.
#2. Signed Merrill Kelly as a free agent.
Kelly wasn’t the worst starting pitcher on our books: you’ve probably already figured out who #1 here is. But unlike Gallen, he is also on the team’s books for 2027. We should perhaps have paid attention to the sharp fall-off late last year, after Merrill’s trade to Texas. His ERA for the Rangers was over a run higher than with the D-backs, and that trend continued into 2026. Merrill had an ERA of 4.94, a FIP of 5.32 and an overall value of just 0.3 bWAR. He cost Arizona $19 million this season, including the signing bonus, and will receive $21 million next year, CBA permitting. We can only hope for better. No, really. That’s all we can do: hope.
#1. Signed Zac Gallen as a free agent.
You are perhaps detecting a theme here. This feels like the infamous case where the D-backs beat catcher Jorge Fabregas in arbitration, and paid him what he wanted anyway. The team made Gallen a qualifying offer, he rejected it and entered free-agency. Then when none of the other 29 teams offered anything as good, we still gave it to him. We should have listened to the free-market, because Gallen was epically bad. His -1.7 bWAR was the lowest value posted by a starter for Arizona in over twenty years, since Russ Ortiz touched -1.8 in 2005. This will sting for a bit. Due to the deferrals in the deal – the only positive – he’ll get a check from the team for $4.675 million on July 1 of 2032, 2033, and 2034.
“We actually had a great conversation, [manager Chad Tracy] and I, with Willson yesterday,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow revealed in a press conference on Monday. “We met for over two hours and we talked about a whole host of things. Many of those things I will keep private just to protect, or preserve the relationship that we have, but it was incredibly constructive. Willson would be the right person to ask directly, but he spoke very, very highly of his time here.”
The conversation came on the heels of Contreras publicly stating his frustrations with Boston’s reliance on data to make decisions and doing a lip-zipping motion to demonstrate his feelings about Tracy pulling Sonny Gray early from their Game 2 season-ending loss.
Craig Breslow had a 2-hour sitdown with Willson Contreras and Chad Tracy the other day.
Called it "incredibly constructive" and that Contreras spoke highly about his experience with the Red Sox so far. pic.twitter.com/8D1wfoUWXT
Boston Red Sox’s Willson Contreras waves his batting helmet as he leaves the field after losing to the New York Yankees in Game 2 of baseball’s American League Wild Card Series, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026, in New York. AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
Tracy has been widely criticized for his choice to pull both Payton Tolle and Gray early from their starts in the first and second Wild Card games, respectively. The Red Sox went on to get swept by the Yankees, outscored by a combined 18-2.
“Making decisions about data, about all the stuff we cannot do anything about it…At the end of the day, it’s not about data. It’s about executing the game plan,” Contreras said after Boston was eliminated last Wednesday.
Gray expressed his own frustration with Tracy’s decision to pull him after a mere 70 pitches.
Boston Red Sox manager Chad Tracy signals for a pitching change in the fifth inning during Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post
“I think I’m the best pitcher in the American League going through the order a third time. I think that’s a fact,” Gray said after the game. “I would have liked to have been trusted in that moment.”
Tracy signed a three-year extension with the team before the conclusion of the season, removing his interim tag and keeping him with the club through the 2029 season.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - SEPTEMBER 24: Elly De La Cruz #44 of the Cincinnati Reds returns to the dugout after hitting a solo home run, his 30th home run of the season, in the third inning of a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on September 24, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images) | Getty Images
There are several distinct and telling signs of a roster designed the way the Cincinnati Reds have put together theirs. The fabric of it, if you will.
Back in 2022, the front office decided to end the pursuit of playoff glory with the then-current iteration of players on the roster and instead invest in future runs. That meant cashing in on established players like Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Luis Castillo and instead turning their sights towards a future – one with younger players with more team control and fewer salary obligations.
That’s how teams dedicated to keeping their budget at a minimum work. They cash in on the players getting expensive and nearing free agency in order to collect younger, cheaper players with more years to grow into being big leaguers, with hopes the latter can form a new core on a much less imposing budget.
Here we are, though, with the Cincinnati Reds heading into the 2027 season with those then-future hopes of postseason glory still unrealized. However, the players they began assembling five years ago are now barreling into their own arbitration years, and the fabric of the roster is about to get more expensive in a new, different manner.
MLB Trade Rumors long ago created their own proprietary model for estimating the salaries of arbitration-eligible players, doing their best to unmask the otherwise nebulous process and reveal just what takes players from their league-minimum rates into their first big paychecks after they log the requisite amount of service time. And this winter, the Reds will have a full dozen players who’ll be going through that process (if not non-tendered), with nearly half their expected active roster expected to command a total of nearly $43 million.
That group is headlined by Elly De La Cruz, whom MLBTR estimates will command a salary of $7.9 million in his first trip through the arb process. The arbitration process leans heavily on straightforward production statistics like homers and steals, and obviously Elly – who just joined the 30-30 club for the first time – has logged those in spades. So, too, has Spencer Steer across his first four full years as a big leaguer, and he’s estimated to command a $5.7 million salary for 2027 that mirrors that of lefty Nick Lodolo behind Elly’s nearly $8 million mark.
Reds Arbitration Estimates
Tejay Antone – $1.5 million
Nick Lodolo – $5.7 million
Graham Ashcraft – $2.2 million
Tony Santillan – $2.5 million
Spencer Steer – $5.7 million
JJ Bleday – $4.8 million
Matt McLain – $4 million
Brandon Williamson – $1.3 million
Andrew Abbott – $4.5 million
Elly De La Cruz – $7.9 million
Oswaldo Cabrera – $1.1 million
Dane Myers – $1.5 million
All told, it’s a reflection of the larger problem facing the Reds. They have assembled a roster that’s aging into free agency and getting more expensive all while facing dwindling team control while having piled up not nearly enough wins for the expectations of the front office (or the fans). And now, the people pulling the strings get to decide if they want to pay the increased rates to keep this core around for another year or move on to younger, cheaper players (a la their 2022 strategy) in order to begin building towards some other far-off pipe dream.
Oct 3, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) reacts in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees in game one of the ALDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
In case you were sleeping under a rock, Drew Rasmussen gave the Yankees their worst performance in playoff history by nearly no-hitting them in Game 1 of the ALDS, including a (for them) record 23 swinging strikes, a feat all the more remarkable given that he didn’t pick up his tenth until the top of the fourth.
It was a dazzling outing, but here are my favorites from his night under the spotlight.
This was the tone setter. After a cutter to what should have been Bronx star Ben Rice’s wheelhouse, Rasmussen fed two change ups that Rice whiffed on each time. Delicious.
This video comes back late from the highlight grab by Simpson and nearly misses a ludicrous cutter. I can’t imagine what this must look like out of the hand for Spencer Jones, but it must have been houdini magic.
Seeing that, Rasmussen fed him another cutter in the zone to let him try and hit it — Jones couldn’t…
Rasmussen then follows it up with what might be my favorite pitch of the night, going up and in on Jones and completely blowing his mind. He sees another fastball, he knows he’s supposed to swing, and he doesn’t stand a chance, because this time it’s the four seam variety.
This is another sequence to be adored, in the following at bat. Rasmussen freezes Lombard with a cutter inside, fans him on a change low and away that Lombard did not stand a chance on, and then breaks out the four-seam again. This trick works on both hands.
Grishamsaw three pitches this at bat and doesn’t take the bat off his shoulder, and if I’d been standing there I don’t know that I could have done more than wet myself. It was a change that drops in high and away, a cutter down and in, and then Rasmussen challenges Grisham with a sinker to make you think you need to hit the deck — but whips back into the zone. Yeesh.
Why this one? It’s just so damn funny. The third inning is one of the few where Rasmussen struggled and he was feeding Bellinger above the zone, but the star outfielder couldn’t help himself and tried to get climb the ladder and hit this?? When he’d already whiffed outside the zone on a closer pitch??? What was he thinking?
Oct 10, 2010; Arlington, TX, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Carlos Pena (1) in the on-deck circle in the eighth inning of game four of the 2010 ALDS against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark. The Rays beat the Rangers 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are back at it tonight for the second game of the American League Division Series.
The two teams met up on Saturday for an epic pitcher’s duel. The Rays won thanks to a masterful performance from Drew Rasmussen, who came just four outs shy of throwing the 3rd no-hitter in MLB postseason history. Jonathan Aranda provided the lone run of the game as he launched a solo homerun off of Gerrit Cole. Meanwhile, the only hit the Yankees knocked on the night was off the bat of Austin Wells but thanks to a questionable baserunning decision and excellent Rays defense was thrown at third base to end the 8th inning. The ever dependable Bryan Baker set down the Yankees in order for a flawless 9th inning save to close out the Rays 1-0 victory.
Tonight, there could be another pitcher’s duel as the Yankee will send Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler to the mound in hopes of evening up the series while the Rays will send out the AL Pitcher of the Month, Freddy Peralta, to try and notch another win closer to the ALCS.
It will be an extremely tough task for the Rays to mount any offense against Schlittler. Since making his Major League debut last July, the 25-year old right-handed pitcher has been the American League’s best pitcher. He finished the 2026 regular season with a 1.95 ERA | 2.56 FIP with a 31.4 K% and 6.4 BB% over 193.2 IP averaging roughly 6 IP per start. Since making his big league debut, Schlittler has accrued 7.5 fWAR which is 3rd among all pitchers while his 2.23 ERA is the lowest among all starters with at least 130 IP.
There isn’t a splits advantage to be found against Schlittler, who was equally dominant against both sides of the plate in 2026 with lefties faring slightly better but still only producing a .560 OPS (RHB had a .520 OPS). Lefties also struck significantly more (34.7%) compared to RHB (26.4%). Schlittler is nearly unhittable the first two times through the order but does wear down during the third trip through. It will be interesting to see how Aaroo Boone manages this if the two sides remain in a close late in the game.
For the Rays, Freddy Peralta has been excellent and everything they could have hoped for after acquiring him from the New York Mets at the trade deadline. The ace of the Brewers staff for several years, Milwaukee traded Peralta to the Mets this past offseason following a Cy Young caliber campaign. However, Peralta struggled mightily with the team from Queens during his brief tenure there in 2025 as he seemingly was unable to tap into all of the things that made him an ace in Milwaukee. That changed once the Rays acquired him at the trade deadline.
There were some growing pains over his first few outings, but the work was in motion and soon Peralta had rediscovered his fastball and developed a change-up to pair with it. This combined with an exceptional defense had led to a resurgence. Since the start of play on August 26th, Peralta has a 0.79 ERA | 2.78 FIP over 34 IP. That is the lowest mark in baseball over that time with his mound opponent, Cam Schlittler ranking 2nd with a 1.01 ERA.
The Rays offense was mostly quiet during game one as Gerrit Cole and the Yankees bullpen kept the lineup in check. They pitched around Junior Caminero and there were just a few opportunities to score on three walks and five hits.
The ceremonial first pitch tonight will be thrown by former Rays first baseman, Carlos Pena. The slugging first baseman still holds the single-season franchise record for most homeruns in a season and was an integral part of the team’s turnaround in 2008. After a year away in 2011, he returned in 2012 to one of the largest ovations in Tropicana Field history and promptly hit a grand slam in one of those magical baseball moments.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 04: A general view before the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves in game two of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 04, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ryan Sirius Sun/Getty Images) | Getty Images
LOS ANGELES — By losing Game 2 of the National League Division Series on Sunday night, the Dodgers and Braves are now tied at one game apiece in the series, and home-field advantage wrests with Atlanta with the next two games at Truist Park. The Dodgers need to win at least once in Atlanta to ensure they will play again at Dodger Stadium this season.
Let’s take a look at the possibilities for the next time the Dodgers will play at Chavez Ravine.
This is the least likely of the scenarios, mostly because too many things need to happen for this to come true. First, the Dodgers would need to win the NLDS over the Braves before coming home, by beating them twice in Atlanta. And it would require the Padres to overcome their 2-0 hole to the Brewers in the other NLDS, winning the next three games.
Wednesday, October 14, NLCS Game 3 vs. Brewers
The Brewers have three chances to win the one game they need to advance to a second straight NLCS, and with the best record in baseball at 103-59, the Brewers would start any series at home in Milwaukee. This scenario would also require the Dodgers to win two in a row in Atlanta, avoiding the home Game 5 of the NLDS.
Thursday, March 26, 2027 vs. Braves (or later?)
If the Dodgers lose the next two games in Atlanta, their 2026 season is over, and it’ll be time to look ahead to 2027. Opening day is scheduled for next March 26 at Dodger Stadium, but there will be a lockout once the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, followed by a long battle between the owners and players over a new CBA. Whether next season starts on time is yet another variable to consider.
South Bend Cubs' Kade Snell walks back to the dugout after striking out during a Midwest League West Divisional playoff game against the Quad Cities River Bandits Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, at Four Winds Field in South Bend, Indiana. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co
Now that the Cubs’ season came to an unfortunately early end, it’s time to turn our eyes to the Mesa Solar Sox, the Cubs’ affiliate in the Arizona Fall League. The 2026 season started on Saturday and we’ve got a look at the Cubs prospects and how they did over the weekend.
In case you’ve forgotten, or in case you never knew in the first place, the Arizona Fall League is a minor league that starts in early October and goes on for about six weeks. The idea behind it has changed over the years, but today it mostly serves as a place for minor leaguers whom their team thinks could benefit from some extra games. In the case of the Cubs, at least, this often but not always means players who were injured over the course of the season. Sometimes they’ll send a player to the AFL whom they’re evaluating on whether or not to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. However, sometimes teams will send a top prospect to the AFL because they think they could benefit from working with coaches and teammates from other organizations. For example, the Solar Sox can boast of the Angels’ top prospect Arjun Nimmala on their roster this year.
Also, sometimes players establish themselves as top-tier prospects in the AFL. Last year, catcher Owen Ayers thrust himself into the conversation of the Cubs’ top prospects with a very impressive AFL campaign. He built on that success with a strong 2026 in the minors and he’s now universally considered to be one of the Cubs’ top five prospects after barely scraping the bottom of the Top 30 before his AFL performance.
One piece of bad news, however, is that the Cubs’ second-round pick, Myles Bailey, will not be playing in the AFL. He was originally announced as being on the roster after having not played an official game since he broke his ankle in late March when he was still playing for Florida State. I had hoped to finally see what Bailey could do against professional pitching, but I guess we have to wait until April for that.
So as a quick refresher, there are six AFL teams and their rosters are each made up of player from five different organizations. Every year, Cubs prospects compete for the Mesa Solar Sox, who play their home games at Sloan Park, the Spring Training home of the Cubs in Mesa. The Athletics, who also train in Mesa, also are on the Solar Sox every year as well. The other three teams on the Solar Sox rotate in and out. In addition to the Cubs and A’s, this year’s Solar Sox feature prospects from the Angels, Blue Jays and Red Sox. Last year, the Marlins, Rays and Yankees joined the Cubs and A’s on the Solar Sox.
The Solar Sox are managed this year by South Bend manager Daniel Wasinger.
The Solar Sox have played two games already and went 1-1. The home team is listed last.
Here are the Cubs minor leaguers in the AFL, a little bit about them and how they did in those two games.
Infielder Juan Cabada. Cabada is the top Cubs prospect on the Solar Sox and is one of the youngest players in the AFL at only 18 years old. Cabada made his US debut in Mesa with the ACL Cubs this past May, where he was sidelined with a lower body injury after just 14 games. (Although they were 14 very good games)
Cabada was out until mid-August, when he came off the IL and was promoted to Low-A Myrtle Beach. Cabada struggled a bit there, but an 18-year-old coming off an injury and competing in Low-A is a tough ask. Still, he wasn’t terrible with a .215 batting average, a .297 on-base percentage and two home runs in just 17 games.
Cabada is a bat-over-glove infielder, but he has a promising offensive profile with good contact skills, solid left-handed power and above-average speed. He should have a good enough glove to be at least a fringe-average defensive second or third baseman. Of course, it’s hard to predict such things on an 18-year-old. He could be better or worse than that.
Cabada played third base in Sunday’s game and he went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored.
Outfielder Harrison Feinberg: I have to admit that I didn’t remember Feinberg when he was named as Bailey’s replacement on the Solar Sox. Feinberg is a 24-year-old non-drafted free agent that the Cubs signed this summer out of Northeastern. His college numbers suggest he has a little bit of pop in his bat.
In any case, when Feinberg gets into a game with the Solar Sox, he’ll be making his professional debut. He didn’t play this past season or over the weekend.
Outfielder Kade Snell: Snell is an older prospect at 24 after the Cubs drafted him after his senior season at Alabama in the fifth round in 2025. However, it would be a mistake to dismiss Snell because of his age. Snell is a player with good all-around skills. He makes good contact, has an above-average amount of pop in his bat and can steal a base. He was 19 for 21 in stealing with South Bend last year. Defensively he’s a bit stretched in center field, but he’s a solid defensive outfielder at either corner.
Like Cabada, Snell missed a big chunk of the middle of the season with an injury. In Snell’s case, it was a broken wrist suffered after an outfield collision that cost him seven weeks. Snell will be trying to make up for those missed at-bats as well as trying to establish himself as a solid prospect.
Snell played both games over the weekend, one in left field and one in right. He batted leadoff in both games and went 2 for 4 with a walk on Saturday and 1 for 5 on Sunday.
Right-hander Jhon Cabral: The Cubs signed Cabral after the Marlins released him this past June. Cabral is a fireballer who can hit 100 miles per hour with regularity. He also has no idea where the ball is going, which is why the Marlins released him. In the 82.2 innings he’s thrown in his minor league career, he’s struck out 82 and walked 121. But it’s hard to give up on triple digits.
In any case, Cabral didn’t pitch over the weekend.
Right-hander Anhuar Garcia: Garcia didn’t miss time this summer with an injury. Rather, he missed 60 games after a positive PED test last June. However, when he returned to the mound in late-June, he was a pretty solid reliever for the Low-A Pelicans, posting a 2.49 ERA and striking out over 30 percent of the batters he faced. That got him a late promotion to High-A South Bend where he got knocked around a bit in four games, but he was still striking out a batter an inning.
Garcia relieved fellow Cubs prospect Dominick Reid in Saturday’s game and had a rough go of it. Reid allowed four hits, including two hime runs, over just 1.2 innings. That, along with the three walks and no strike outs, led to four runs.
Right-hander Dominick Reid: Reid is unquestionably the best Cubs’ pitching prospect in the AFL this year, having been drafted in the third round out of Abilene Christian in 2025. Reid made his pro debut this year with the Pelicans and made 12 starts before a shoulder issue shut him down. He was out from mid-June until early September, when he was healthy enough to return the the mound and got a promotion to South Bend, where he made one start.
Reid combines a 92-to-94 mile per hour fastball (although he occasionally touches higher) with one of the nastiest changeups in the system.
Reid was the Opening Night starter for the Solar Sox and he absolutely dominated the Javelinas for four innings. Reid allowed a solo home run to Cardinals prospect Tai Peete, but almost nothing else. Reid’s final line was one run on one hit over four innings. He struck out seven and walked just one.
Right-hander Luis Rujano: Rujano was the Cubs’ 13th round pick out of high school in Florida in 2022. This year the reliever bounced around, starting the year in Double-A Knoxville. He struggled there with an 8.61 ERA over 12 games and was sent back down to Mesa. After a short, six-game, reset in the Arizona Complex League, Rujano was sent to South Bend where he still walked too many batters, but struck out more than a batter an inning and held opposing hitters to a .188 batting average over 12 relief appearances. That got him promoted back up to Double-A and he was much better his second time around, putting up a 2.35 ERA over six appearances.
Rujano has yet to make his AFL debut.
That’s it for this week. I’ll be back every Monday through the rest of the six-week season for a regular update of the Cubs and the Boys of Autumn in the Arizona Fall League.
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 05: Keibert Ruiz #20 of the Washington Nationals runs the bases during the game between the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, September 5, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Nicole Vasquez/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
There were a lot of Nationals hitters who were surprisingly productive in 2026. However, the biggest surprise for me was Keibert Ruiz, who turned his career around this season. Entering this season, I had given up on the Nationals catcher after several difficult seasons. He responded by having the best year of his career on both sides of the ball.
Simply put, Keibert Ruiz was terrible in 2024 and 2025. He was arguably the worst defensive catcher in the sport while posting a .610 OPS over those two seasons. His 2025 season was also interrupted by concussions which put his future behind the plate in question. The vibes around Keibert Ruiz were not good.
In April, it looked like more of the same, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Although he looked better defensively, Ruiz still only hit .178 with a .480 OPS in April. The turning point came on May 7th against the Twins. In that game, Ruiz had two doubles and a homer, which led the Nats to a 7-5 victory.
That game gave us a look at what would make Ruiz successful the rest of the year. All three of those extra base hits were pulled down the line. Keibert Ruiz started pulling everything and it led to a lot of hits.
In the 2026 season, Keibert Ruiz pulled the ball 58.7% of the time. That was the most of all qualified hitters, with the next closest batter sitting at 54.5%. He also managed to pull the ball in the air a lot. His 33.9% air pull rate was the second highest in all of baseball, only behind Pete Crow-Armstrong.
That game against the Twins truly exemplified Ruiz’s offensive approach. Ruiz has always made a lot of contact, but he does not hit the ball that hard and his lack of speed means he is not getting many infield hits. That led to BABIP numbers around .260-270 for his career, which is very low.
Pulled baseballs tend to have higher BABIP’s. With more of those pulled balls, Ruiz’s BABIP shot up to .288. With more balls dropping, Ruiz saw his batting average go up to .280. Since he does not walk a lot, Ruiz has to rely on hitting at least .265 to be a solid hitter.
This year he accomplished that and it led to great results. On the season, Ruiz hit .280 with a .759 OPS. His wRC+ sat at 105 and his OPS+ was 107. That made Ruiz an above average hitter for the first time in a full season.
However, the offensive improvement was only half the story, and honestly the less surprising half. For most of his career, Ruiz did not have a strong defensive reputation and rightfully so. From 2023 to 2025, Ruiz had a combined -39 fielding run value, a truly awful mark.
In 2026, that changed, with Keibert Ruiz being an above average defensive catcher. He has +2 FRV on the season, with most of that being due to his well above average framing. Catching coach Bobby Wilson completely transformed Ruiz as a framer, something we documented during the season.
I still do not think we are talking enough about just how great Keibert Ruiz has been this year. He has gone from unplayable to an above average starting catcher https://t.co/yZSNZTkE5l
After being a liability for years, Ruiz became a positive on both sides of the ball in 2026. Ruiz will never be a star, but this year he proved he can be an above average player who can give you 100 starts behind the dish. On the season, he posted 1.9 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR. Those are great totals, especially for a guy who had been below replacement level the past couple of years.
Entering the season, Keibert Ruiz’s 8-year $50 million contract looked like an albatross that the Nats might have to cut bait on. However, after this season, it looks like a perfectly fine deal. He actually outperformed his contract this season.
After this year, Ruiz’s contact has 4 years left with $31.5 million left on it. There are two club options after that as well. If he can play at a similar level to this season, that is a nice deal for the team. However, he needs to keep it up.
This will likely be one of Ruiz’s better years, but I have faith that he can be an average player on both sides of the ball moving forward. If he can do that, the Nats will be happy. You do not need every guy on the team to be a star. Having solid guys like Keibert Ruiz matters.
With all the tough times he has had, you have to be happy for Ruiz. He seems like a good person and a quiet leader in the clubhouse. At 28 years old, he is one of the veterans on the team and carries himself like that. He does a good job working with the pitching staff and just provides stability.
Keibert Ruiz needed a big year badly and that is exactly what happened. With hard work and better coaching around him, Ruiz looks like the Nats catcher for the foreseeable future. Based on my preseason expectations, there might not be anyone who had a better year than Keibert Ruiz.
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 26: Colorado Rockies right fielder Troy Johnston (20) celebrates his home run with second baseman Connor Norby (35) during the game between the Colorado Rockies and the Washington Nationals on August 26, 2026 at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.
No. 50, Troy Johnston (-0.8 rWAR)
Troy Johnston wasn’t guaranteed anything when he arrived in Scottsdale last spring.
The Rockies had claimed him off waivers from Miami in November, during that strange period between Bill Schmidt stepping down and Paul DePodesta taking over baseball operations. He joined a crowded collection of first basemen and corner outfielders, and even making the Opening Day roster was hardly assured.
He made it.
Then he never left.
For the first time in his career, Johnston spent an entire season in the major leagues. He appeared in 128 games, received 449 plate appearances and, for long stretches, became one of the more reliable bats in a Rockies lineup that badly needed them.
Johnston spent months hitting around .300, piled up 32 doubles and showed an ability to square up major-league pitching. He also hit just four home runs, struggled in the field and on the bases, and gradually moved from an everyday role into something much more selective.
By the end of the year, the Rockies had a much clearer idea of what Johnston could do. The harder question was how much value that package ultimately carried.
The numbers
G
PA
AB
H
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AVG/OBP/SLG
OPS
128
449
397
110
41
32
1
4
50
37
83
4
.277/.348/.393
.741
Johnston finished with a 95 OPS+, putting his full-season production just below league average. That still does a poor job of describing how he actually got there.
There were extended periods when he was quite a bit better than that. He hit .313/.371/.448 in March and April, .307/.365/.398 in May and .319/.402/.464 in June. Then came a disastrous July, followed by a .319/.407/.511 August and another sharp downturn in September.
Johnston did not spend six months looking like a 95 OPS+ hitter. He spent parts of the season looking like a legitimately good one and other parts looking like a player whose grip on regular playing time was disappearing.
What actually happened
Johnston wasted very little time making himself difficult to remove from the lineup.
On April 6 against Houston, batting cleanup and starting in right field, he went 3-for-5 with a double, a home run and two RBI in a 9-7 Rockies win. Less than two weeks later, he put together what may have been his best all-around offensive game of the season.
On April 18 against the Dodgers, Johnston went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two RBI as Colorado won 4-3. It was exactly the kind of night that would become familiar during his first few months: plenty of contact, balls into the gaps and production without needing to hit the ball over the fence.
Johnston made most of his defensive time in the outfield, primarily in right field, while also seeing action at first base.
Johnston showed some value on the other side of the ball the next afternoon, making a diving catch in right field for the final out of a 9-6 win over the Dodgers.
The Rockies responded by treating him like a regular. Through the end of June, Johnston had started 68 of the 77 games in which he appeared. His place in the batting order reflected it, too. There were experiments near the top early in the season, but by May and June he was regularly hitting fifth, right in the middle of the lineup.
He kept giving the Rockies reasons to put him there.
On June 14 against the Athletics, Johnston doubled, homered and drove in four runs in a 23-9 win. It was his biggest RBI game of the year and one of those occasional reminders that, while power was never going to define his game, he could still do damage when he got the right pitch.
By the end of June, Johnston was hitting .312/.378/.435 through 284 plate appearances. A player who entered camp unsure of a roster spot had become a regular in the lineup.
Then July changed the conversation.
Johnston hit .148/.234/.185 in 64 plate appearances. He still started 16 games during the month, but his place in the lineup was changing. After spending much of May and June batting fifth, Johnston made most of his July starts in the sixth or seventh spots.
August complicated the picture again.
Johnston was no longer playing every day, but he started hitting again. He batted .319/.407/.511 with a .918 OPS in 54 plate appearances while making only 12 starts. Five of those starts came from the No. 8 spot, and another five of his appearances came off the bench.
On Aug. 22, Johnston had two hits and a double. The next day, he came off the bench and doubled again. On Aug. 26 in Washington, hitting eighth as the designated hitter, he went 2-for-5 and launched his fourth home run of the season, a two-run shot in a 13-1 win.
The regular middle-of-the-order role was gone, but Johnston showed he could still produce when the plate appearances became less predictable.
The next day in Washington offered a reminder of the other parts of his game. Johnston was on first with two outs in the seventh inning when catcher Keibert Ruiz caught him straying too far from the bag and picked him off to end the inning.
By September, the smaller role had largely stuck. Johnston appeared in 14 games and started 11, receiving 47 plate appearances. Seven of those starts came from the seventh spot in the lineup.
On Sept. 6 against St. Louis, the Rockies briefly moved him all the way up to second. He went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts.
Nine days later, Johnston provided one last reminder of why the bat had kept him around all season. Against San Diego on Sept. 15, he went 3-for-3 with two doubles and two RBI in a 9-3 win.
He followed that with a handful of scattered hits down the stretch but finished September at .186/.255/.279, another sharp downturn after the August rebound.
The contact was real, but so were the limitations
Johnston’s July collapse looked dramatic in the box score, but he had not suddenly stopped hitting the ball hard.
In fact, his hard-contact rate increased to 46.7% during the month. The problem was where those balls were going.
Month
AVG.
LD%
GB%
Hard%
April
.313
29.7%
40.6%
26.9%
May
.307
30.9%
39.7%
30.9%
June
.319
26.6%
35.9%
46.9%
July
.148
11.1%
51.1%
46.7%
August
.319
27.8%
38.9%
32.4%
September
.186
28.6%
42.9%
32.1%
When we looked at Johnston near the end of July, the issue was less about finding additional raw power than getting back to the line drives and gap contact that had made him productive earlier in the season.
The line drives returned in August, and so did the results.
That fits the larger offensive profile. Johnston’s .276 expected batting average was among the best in baseball, while his 39.7% launch-angle sweet-spot rate and 86% zone-contact rate reflected how consistently he put the ball in play at useful angles.
But useful contact and damage are different things. Johnston’s barrel rate was just 2.2%, his expected slugging percentage was .375 and he chased more than 35% of pitches outside the zone.
He was good at making contact when he swung. He just did not create much margin for error around that skill.
The platoon split points toward a more selective role. Johnston hit .299/.380/.418 with a .798 OPS in 337 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, compared with .214/.252/.320 and a .573 OPS against lefties.
The rest of his game pulled the overall value in the other direction.
Johnston stole four bases and was caught five times, with Baseball-Reference grading him two runs below average on the bases. Defensively, Baseball-Reference credited him with -9 Defensive Runs Saved overall and -9 fielding runs, while Statcast also graded his range below average.
Baseball-Reference graded Johnston at just four runs below average with the bat. The larger losses came on the bases, in the field and through the positional adjustment, leaving him at -0.8 rWAR.
There was, however, one place Johnston did not allow a run all year: the pitcher’s mound.
He made two appearances, worked two scoreless innings and allowed one hit. Baseball-Reference even credited him with 0.1 pitching WAR.
Johnston also brought plenty of energy and personality to a team that spent most of the season losing. It won’t determine a roster decision, but if Baseball Savant ever creates a personality percentile, Johnston would have a pretty strong case for the red.
Where does Johnston stand heading into 2027?
Last spring, the question was whether Troy Johnston could make the Rockies.
A year later, he is in almost the same place.
Colorado now has a full season of evidence showing what Johnston can provide, particularly against right-handed pitching. It also has a much clearer view of the limits around that skill set.
That still leaves Johnston looking like a possible left-handed matchup bat in a flexible role. His remaining options help, but younger players will be competing for those opportunities.
He made the team last March without any guarantees.
Heading into 2027, there is no guarantee he even gets the chance to do it again.
The Yankees have nine players eligible for salary arbitration this offseason.
Those players are Clarke Schmidt, Luis Garcia Jr., Ryan Weathers, Fernando Cruz, Jose Caballero, Anthony Volpe, Luis Gil, Heliot Ramos, and Austin Wells.
Once a player is offered arbitration, the team and that player's agent have until a set date -- usually at some point in February -- to come to terms on a new contract. If that doesn't happen, both sides submit salary proposals and the player's salary is determined by independent arbitrators at a hearing (a timeframe that could be impacted this offseason by the expected lockout).
A team can also offer arbitration to a player and then trade that player. So the Yankees can tender contracts to players who might not be in their plans.
According to the MLB Trade Rumors algorithm that "looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation," here's what the Yankees' arbitration-eligible players are projected to make in 2027...
Luis Garcia Jr: $11 million
Clarke Schmidt: $4.5 million
Anthony Volpe: $4 million
Jose Caballero: $3.7 million
Heliot Ramos: $3.2 million
Ryan Weathers: $3.1 million
Austin Wells: $2.6 million
Fernando Cruz: $2.3 million
Luis Gil: $2.3 million
If the Yankees tender contracts to all of the above players and they receive salaries similar to the projections, it would add roughly $36.7 million to the payroll.
As things currently stand, New York has just over $276 million on the books for 2027.
