Category: Baseball

One of the benefits of waiting until late May to look at statistics is that individual games have less of a difference on overall numbers. In April, it looked like the Astros hitting coaches were the toast of the town. The team was leading the American League in runs scoring. They were taking more pitches. They were taking more walks. It felt like there was a new message being delivered to hitters and they were listening. Of course, not we have gone most of the way through May (May 19th as of these numbers) and those gains may have slowed.

We have been looking at bases per out now for a couple of different articles. We looked at the catchers and we will look at the infield and outfield eventually, but this time we are looking at the offense as a whole. For comparisons sake, we will take a look at the 2025 numbers since those numbers were probably the numbers that got the past two hitting coaches sent out of town.

Now that the offense has seemingly come back to earth it bears asking whether there were any meaningful and lasting changes in the Astros offense. With one very notable exception, the players are basically the same. That exception is Yordan Alvarez as he spent most of 2025 on the shelf and wasn’t himself for most of the time when he was healthy. Is that enough to explain the difference?

Keep in mind that we will add BPO+ for reference sake. In case you missed our primer article, the major league BPO in 2025 was .670. The BPO so far this season is .663, Last year Daikan Park was perfectly neutral while this year it is playing one percent above average. Given that information let’s see if we have seen in real gains from 2025 to 2026.

That’s not an insignificant improvement. Of course, those gains might be short-lived as the Astros will live without Jose Altuve for a month and Carlos Correa for the remainder of the season. That doesn’t even mention any parts and pieces that will be bartered off before the August 3rd trade deadline. However, if we assume that forces will remain constant (never a good assumption) then we can note where the gains have occurred.

If we note where the gains have occurred then we can possibly isolate those gains down to either hitting talent or hitting approach. Keep in mind that the BPO formula is made up of four components. Total bases is obviously the biggest driver and one probably more dependent on hitting talent. The smaller components are walks, hit by pitches, and stolen bases. Walks are the main component tied to hitting approach.

Before we dive into the numbers, we have to acknowledge the impact of usage. This is why we will break down the infield and outfield in subsequent labs. Those numbers tell us who should play and how often they should play. Naturally, some of that is dependent on availability, but some of that is in the hands of the manager. A statistic like BPO can tell us more about damage than traditional numbers like batting average or more crude sabermetrics like OPS.

The Astros are 49 games into the season, so we will not look at the totals for these four components. Instead we will look at the per game averages to see where if any growth we see in the numbers. 30 BPO points is pretty significant, but as you will see the per game totals might be more subtle. It shows you how small tweaks can have a pretty significant impact on the numbers.

Seeing the numbers expressed this way also helps us understand the relative impact of each metric. The best team in baseball history in steals may have averaged 1.50 steals per game. So, an extra base per game is all you would get out of that exchange. However, as you can see, the 2026 is walking nearly 0.6 times more per game than the 2025 outfit. The impact of hit by pitches is also negligible.

So, the bulk of the difference will come from total bases and walks. The combined additions there equal almost one more base per game. That is the difference between a below average offense and an above average offense. Two total bases would probably take you from below average to elite. So, we aren’t really talking about huge differences this year.

The question then comes down to how we explain the improvement. It is an overall hitting approach improvement or are we talking isolated improvements in personnel. So far, Alvarez has not missed a game and has hit like expected, It turns out that 2025 might be the anomaly there. Otherwise, it looks like Christian Walker is the only significant hitter to show considerable improvement from 2025 to 2026. Can that be attributed to the hitting coaches? I suppose anything is possible.

it should be noted that Jake Meyers and Jeremy Pena have done very little and they were solid and very good respectively last season. There is still a ton of time for them to look more like they looked last year and that could further boost the numbers we are seeing. A more productive Yainer Diaz could also give a little boost to the lineup. Nothing is ever fixed in the middle of a season. So, given these numbers do you lean more on the hitting coaches being the reason for improvement or is it because of individual performances?

Mason Miller joined the San Diego Padres at the 2025 trade deadline, and his acquisition came at a steep price. The top prospect in the San Diego organization, Leodalis De Vries, had to be in the return for Miller and left-hander JP Sears. Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller paid the price for one of the top closers in MLB with four-plus years of control, but the move was questioned by many. To his credit, Preller banked on MLB experience, which Miller had, and took a risk that the loss of De Vries, as vaunted a prospect as he is, may not hurt too bad in the future. He also saw an opportunity for Miller to become an even better closer under the tutelage of pitching coach Ruben Niebla. So far, Miller has made the trade a success. Prior to a throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the second game against the Los Angeles Dodgers this week, Miller coming into the game was a winning recipe for the Padres. He did not enter in a save situation, but manager Craig Stammen believed that Miller could get through the top of the ninth with the game tied, which would give San Diego a chance to win it in the home half of the inning. That opportunity was lost and so was the game, but it was not because Miller could not throw strikes, he rushed a throw to first base and Ty France could not bring it in, which put the runner at third with one out. He later scored on a sacrifice fly and that was all the Dodgers needed. Miller is looking for an opportunity to erase that memory and he may get the chance over the next three days against the Athletics. It is not a sure thing we see Miller in one of these games, but for now he is the biggest piece of the trade between the two teams that has any chance at making an impact at the MLB level. That may change when De Vries finally makes his debut, but that will not be this week or any time soon.

Padres News:

• The Padres offense has struggled to find its stride this season, and that is in large part due to the stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill getting off to slow starts. That has not affected the defensive play of Tatis, who has returned to the infield dirt and has assumed the role of starting second baseman.

• It was a tough day for San Diego minor league affiliates with El Paso and Fort Wayne taking losses.

• Preller is not waiting for the trade deadline to start looking to improve his team. It may come as somewhat of a surprise that the Padres general manager is looking at improving the team’s biggest and most consistent strength – the bullpen.

Baseball News:

• The New York Yankees were held to just three hits by five Toronto Blue Jays pitchers in a 2-0 loss.

• Yankees send Spencer Jones back to minors.

• The Cleveland Guardians got a 3-1 win to complete a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers.

• Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who had surgery two weeks ago, is throwing bullpens and his velocity is already near game speed.

• The Atlanta Braves beat the Miami Marlins, 9-3 but their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. left the game early with a thumb injury.

• Corbin Carroll gets walk-off hit to lead the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies, 2-1.

• The Athletics got a comeback win over the Los Angeles Angels and Jose Soriano.

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We're starting early with our favorite MLB picks for Friday, taking a side in the lone afternoon game on the MLB schedule.

Read on to see why our baseball experts like the Cubs to hold down the fort at Wrigley, while we also have plays in Dodgers/Brewers and Rockies/Diamondbacks — plus more picks coming this morning!

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: LAD/MIL o8.5	+100
Neil Parker: CHC ML	-138
Joe Osborne: ARI -1.5	+113

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dodgers/Brewers Over 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

On a bad-weather slate loaded with rain concerns and heavy winds blowing in, let's target an Over 8.5 that appears as the best spot on the board. THE BAT is projecting 10.10 runs, with a fair price of -137. The pitching matchup looks appealing, if you’re only staring at the ERAs, but shaky BlastContact numbers suggest regression appears to be coming for both starters — Logan Henderson is stranding 98% of his runners over his last two starts, while Justin Wrobleski is carrying a .223 BABIP that feels due for some correction.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: BREW/SNLA

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket

Jameson Taillon is holding opposing hitters to a well-below-average .300 wOBA, leading a tidy 3.28 ERA across 250 innings at Wrigley Field since signing with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. I give the North Siders a sizable edge on both sides of the dish, especially with Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti headed to the bump, who sports a career 5.15 ERA on the road.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Apple TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks -1.5

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

The Arizona Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies at home, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings in the desert. Michael Soroka has been outstanding in Arizona, with a 1.59 ERA across five home starts, and allowing one earned run or fewer in four of those outings. That’s a tough matchup for a Colorado lineup sitting at 27th in OPS vs. RHP over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Tomoyuki Sugano faces a D-backs offense that leads MLB in runs scored over the last week. Arizona also holds a major bullpen advantage, ranking sixth in bullpen ERA over the last two weeks, while Colorado is 23rd.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: One national/two local

More MLB best bets for today

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Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Marlins play a three-game series in Miami starting on Friday at 7:10 p.m. on PIX11.

5 things to watch

The starting rotation is in flux

With Clay Holmes out long-term, New York is patching things together in the rotation.

Against the Nationals in Washington, D.C., the four games were started by Christian Scott, Nolan McLean, Zach Thornton (in his MLB debut), and David Peterson (without an opener in front of him, as had become routine lately).

In Miami, Tobias Myers will start on Friday night, but he is not stretched out. That means he'll likely not go much beyond 35 or 40 pitches, and that the Mets will need plenty of length behind him. That length could come in the form of Jonah Tong, who has been held out in Triple-A just in case. Or, New York could possibly turn to Sean Manaea, who has been struggling.

The plan beyond Friday is unknown, though it will almost certainly include Freddy Peralta and one of Scott or McLean. 

Bo Bichette is heating up

Bichette went off during the series against the Nats, smacking three homers and driving in nine runs.

Over his last five games, Bichette is hitting .348/.375/.783.

Despite his prolonged slump to start the season, a rebound from Bichette wasn't hard to see coming. During his struggles, Bichette's BABIP was well below his career level despite similar metrics to his career norms.

In addition to Bichette, Carson Benge has been on fire -- and his tear dates back roughly a month.

Since April 23, Benge is slashing .347/.385/.469 (.854 OPS). He has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, with six multi-hit games during that span.

Juan Soto is also scorching, with a 1.357 OPS and five homers over his last eight games.

How will Nolan McLean bounce back?

McLean had a rough night against the Nats on Tuesday, allowing nine runs (six earned) on eight hits in 5.2 innings.

There were some caveats, though.

Four of the six earned runs against McLean came on an inside-the-park home run by James Wood that caromed off the glove of left fielder Nick Morabito. It was a tough play, but one that could've been made.

Beyond that, there was some concern after the game that McLean was tipping his pitches. 

If McLean doesn't pitch on Sunday in Miami, he'll likely get the ball at Citi Field on Monday against the Reds. 

The Marlins have been sinking

Miami had a nice start to the year, racing out to a 5-1 record. But it's been a slog since then.

The Marlins are 6-12 since May 3, and have lost seven of their last 10 games -- including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves earlier this week.

Their offense has been feast or famine, with 16 runs over their last seven losses and 31 runs in their last three wins.

Miami's starting pitching remains solid, though, and will feature Eury Perez and Max Meyer this weekend, with Sunday's starter TBD. 

Otto Lopez is having a huge season

If there's one standout for the Marlins on offense, it's Lopez. 

Lopez had a .686 OPS in parts of four seasons before 2026, but a switch has flipped for him.

The infielder is leading the majors with a .342 batting average and 68 hits, getting on base at a .373 clip, and slugging .487. 

Lopez has been an extra-base hit machine, with 13 doubles, four homers, and two triples, and has also swiped eight bags.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

Soto has been absolutely locked in since breaking out of a mini-slump about a week ago. 

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Freddy Peralta

Peralta will be looking to bounce back after an uneven start last weekend against the Yankees.

Which Marlins player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Jakob Marsee

Things haven't come easily for Marsee in his second season, but he's one of the most talented bats in Miami's lineup.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers were off yesterday.

Evan Grant’s off day column details the life of the meticulous Brandon Nimmo.

Grant also writes that the Rangers have a golden opportunity this weekend against the crappy Angels.

MLB Pipeline lists a pleasantly surprising prospect from every team, and I have indeed been pleasantly surprised with the Rangers pick.

And finally former Ranger Marcus Semien is the coverboy of Jim Bowden’s piece on struggling MLB veterans. Woof.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a series against the lowly Angels at the weirdly specific time of 8:38 tonight. Jacob deGrom pitches for Texas.

Happy Friday!

Columbus Clippers 2, Louisville Bats 4

Clippers fall to 25-23

Several top prospects had strong games, but it wasn’t enough. Cooper Ingle went 1-for-3 with two walks to reach base safely three times.

Kahlil Watson went 2-for-5 with a home run.

George Valera also reached base safely three times, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk while Angel Genao went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk.

Starting pitcher Austin Peteson allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits with four strikeouts and two walks in 5.1 innings.

The bullpen was terrific. Daniel Espino struck out two in 0.2 scoreless innings. Will Dion pitched 2.0 scoreless frames and Jake Miller struck out two in a scoreless frame.

Akron RubberDucks 1, Harrisburg Senators 0

RubberDucks improve to 24-17

Thursday was a pitching duel between Khal Stephen and former Guardians prospect Alex Clemmey. Clemmey struck out 11 batters, but made one mistake, an RBI double to Alfonsin Rosario, who went 1-for-2 with two walks and three stolen bases. No one else reached base safely twice.

Stephen was excellent, tossing 5.0 scoreless innings with five hits allowed while striking out four and walking one.

Adam Tulloch added a scoreless inning while Carter Rustad pitched 2.0 scoreless frames out of relief and Magnus Ellerts finished off the shutout with a scoreless inning to earn his second save.

Lake County Captains 11, Lansing Lugnuts 1

Captains improve to 21-20

Lake County once again got excellent hitting and pitching in another blowout of Lansing. Something appears to be in the water east of the Captains lately.

Leading the way was Dean Curley, who went 2-for-3 with a grand slam and a walk.

Nolan Schubart also homered, going 1-for-3 with a walk.

Aaron Walton went 2-for-4 with a double while Jace LaViolette went 1-for-2 with a triple and a walk. Maick Collado went 2-for-4 with a home run.

Starting pitcher Franklin Gomez allowed one run on two hits with five strikeouts and two walks in 6.0 innings.

Cam Schuelke and Donovan Zsak combined for 3.0 scoreless innings of relief to close out the victory.

Hill City’s came was postponed due to rain.

ACL Guardians 3, ACL White Sox 2

ACL Guardians improve to 9-6

No one had an extra base hit, but Steven Cruz went 2-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base while scoring two of the three runs for the ACL Guardians on Thursday.

Starting pitcher Edelvis Perez allowed one run in 4.0 innings on three hits. He danced around five walks while striking out four.

You know your team’s season is going badly when … Oh, here’s a surefire one: in-organization fights start to erupt about why the team is playing badly.

One erupted this week, as beloved MASN broadcaster and former pitcher Ben McDonald unleashed an on-air rant about the O’s overreliance on analytics. Following the O’s 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, McDonald vented as follows:

We can talk about analytics and what could happen and what should happen if you hit the ball hard. But … I don’t care if you hit it hard and you hit it to somebody. You’re out. I don’t care how hard you throw ball four. I don’t care what your spin rate was on your breaking ball if you bounce it three feet in front of home plate. I don’t care. What I care about is, do you make plays? Do you make pitches? Do you get hits when it matters? And that’s what the Orioles are struggling to do right now. … So, all this nonsense is eyewash to me about this analytical stuff. You either do or you don’t. And right now, the Orioles don’t.

It would appear Big Ben has a point. The Orioles (21-29) entered today tied for the second-highest average exit velocity in MLB (90 mph), but their offense ranked just 17th, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Adding insult to injury, the first-place Rays (33-15), who swept Baltimore this week in three games, own the sport’s lowest average exit velo, sitting at 87.6 mph.

This is not a totally new story. Last season, the Orioles were a thoroughgoing offensive disappointment, expected to contend but ultimately finishing tied for 24th in MLB in batting average (.235), 21st in OPS (.699), and 24th in runs scored (677). Injuries played a real role: Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle, Heston Kjerstad and Tyler O’Neill each missed fifty games or more, the latter earning himself the nickname “General Soreness.”

The organization didn’t just sit and take these body blows: instead, they took action (a pun!)—namely by firing the entire hitting staff. Coaches Sherman Johnson and Tommy Joseph were shown the door, and with new manager Craig Albernaz came Dustin Lind as lead hitting coach, who brought experience building the Giants’ and Phillies’ hitting programs.

Have these showy moves made much difference? The truth is: not really, at least not yet. Last season, the Birds hit .235 with a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 24.2% strikeout rate. This season, they’re hitting .233 with a 42.5% hard-hit rate and a 24.7% strikeout rate. (Cue the Spiderman meme here.) If anything, they’re swinging for the fences a bit more and the contact is slightly worse.

Broken down by pitch type, the pattern becomes easy to see. Against fastballs, the Orioles own a .266 average, .379 wOBA, and a hard-hit rate of nearly 50% of balls in play. All are above average. They’re better, too, than in 2025, when the Birds hit heaters to the tune of a .244 average, .334 wOBA, and 49% hard-hit rate.

The trouble, like the old saying goes, is with the curve. As of early May, pointed out a Baltimore Sports and Life piece (appropriately titled “At some point, someone’s gotta hit a curveball”), the O’s were hitting just .182 with a .250 wOBA and a 35.4% strikeout rate (league average is 29%)—among the worst numbers in baseball. (Last season, those numbers were .206, .272 and 32.1%, so the team is now appreciably worse.) That shouldn’t be surprising given some garish individual performances you already know about: Colton Cowser has two hits off a breaking ball all year; Coby Mayo boasts a 41% strikeout rate against curveballs.

Is it the exit velocities? I’m not sure. What I can say is that exit velocity does not correlate with offensive excellence—otherwise, the Mets and the Red Sox would be contenders this year. For that matter, these five teams are the best at hitting curveballs: LAD, SEA, CLE, PHI, MIL. In exit velocity, Philadelphia ranks fourth, LAD fifth, Seattle eighth, Milwaukee 28th and Cleveland 29th. I’m no statistician, but I think it seems like average exit velocity and hitting curveballs should have nothing to do with each other. I don’t know.  But I do think the Orioles should start to give press conferences explaining why they’re so bad at hitting curveballs.

One more trend that sticks out: the terrible splits against lefties. Last year the team batting average splits against lefty/righty starters were .230/.236. This year, it’s .210/.240. That’s pretty bad. The main offenders: Leody Taveras (.156 BA against LHP), Colton Cowser (.200), Gunnar Henderson (.211) and Jeremiah Jackson (.231).

Which brings us back to Ben McDonald. He’s right that hard-hit rates and spin rates don’t matter if you’re not producing. He’s right, too, to question whether there’s too much of an emphasis on hitting the ball hard, which seemingly has little to do with offensive excellence in general.

But it seems like the curveball problems are a different thing, and so are the roster construction problems that explain why this team is so outmatched by lefties, and why the young draft classes aren’t popping like other youngsters like Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Konnor Griffin.

Can all the Orioles’ struggles be laid at the feet of GM Mike Elias, wondered Steve Melewski the other day. No, he said, given the bad injury luck and underperformance. Can they be laid on the coaches? I’m inclined to think that yes, in part.

But regrettably, it feels like the blame has to go around: players, coaches, scouts, management. Losing in myriad ways, in such convincing fashion, is unfortunately a team job.

Hickory starter Aidan Deakins struck out four in six innings, allowing one homer and two runs.

Paulino Santana homered. Yolfran Castillo had a hit and a stolen base. Marcos Torres was 2 for 4 with a double. Josh Springer had a hit and a walk.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter J’Briell Easley struck out seven and walked one in three shutout, no hit innings. Brock Porter struck out three and walked two in 4.1 IP, allowing one run. Joey Danielson struck out one and walked one in 1.1 scoreless innings.

Paxton Kling doubled. Gleider Figuereo had a pair of hits and a stolen base. Malcolm Moore and Yeison Morrobel each had a hit.

Hub City box score

Dalton Pence started for Frisco, allowing three runs in 5.1 IP, striking out five. Ryan Lobus struck out two and walked two in 1.1 IP, allowing one run. Bryan Magdaleno walked two and struck out one in 0.1 IP, allowing one run.

Dylan Dreiling doubled. Keith Jones II had a hit.

Frisco box score

Round Rock starter David Davalillo struggled with his command again, walking five and throwing a wild pitch in five innings, striking out four and allowing two runs. Luis Curvelo walked one, struck out one and gave up two runs in an inning. Alexis Diaz struck out one and walked one in a scoreless inning. Ryan Brasier struck out two in 1.1 scoreless innings. Emiliano Teodo struck out one in 1.2 IP without allowing a run.

Aaron Zavala doubled twice. Cam Cauley had a hit and two stolen bases.

Round Rock box score

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees host the Rays at Yankee Stadium for a three-game series starting Friday...

5 things to watch

Cole returns

The biggest event going into this series is the return of Gerrit Cole.

This will be the first time Cole pitches in an MLB game since Game 5 of the 2024 World Series, and he can give the rotation a spark. With Max Fried on the IL and Carlos Rodon still finding his way back to form from his own IL stint, Cole can set the tone for the weekend. 

Cole made six starts in the minors between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A and has been solid. He pitched to a 4.66 ERA, but what was most encouraging was Cole's final rehab start. Pitching in Triple-A, Cole allowed one run on six hits and one walk across 5.1 innings and struck out six -- and his velocity was nearing 100 mph. 

Bottom of the order woes

This has been a persistent problem for most of the season, but especially of late with Jose Caballero on the IL.

The bottom of the Yankees order has been a black hole. Anthony Volpe, Ryan McMahon and Austin Wells are a combined 10-for-63 with one home run and six RBI in their last seven games.

Wells, especially, has struggled. He's in a 2-for-22 rut with one walk and 11 strikeouts. He is slugging just .252 this season and has only three home runs in 38 games. 

J.C. Escarra hasn't been much better as a catching option, but manager Aaron Boone may make the position a true platoon this weekend. Escarra started Thursday's series finale with the Blue Jays and two of the four games in the series. 

Jose Caballero and Anthony Volpe

Caballero is adamant that he'll need the minimum 10 days before be reactivated from the IL, and gives the club an interesting choice to make. Will the Yanks option Volpe back to the minors? Boone said that shortstop was Caballero's when he returned but Volpe's play has raised the question of whether it's worth keeping him on the roster.

Since his call-up, Volpe is slashing .217/.400/.304 with an OPS of .704. While he hasn't gone yard, his plate discipline looks much improved over last season and his defense has impressed. 

Volpe does not have the versatility that Caballero does, and if the Yankees are looking for some offense from the left side of the infield, there's a world where Volpe stays at short and Caballero starts at third base. Caballero has played 83 games at the hot corner, and could be a nice right-handed complement to the left-handed hitting McMahon.

Judge in a slump

Playing under the radar in recent days is Aaron Judge. The two-time MVP has just four hits in his last seven games with no home runs -- he hasn't homered in his last 10 games. In the four-game series against the Blue Jays, Judge went 1-for-15 with no extra-base hits and eight strikeouts.

The offense goes as Judge goes and they'll need him against a Rays staff that entered Friday's game sixth in MLB with a 3.57 ERA.

Here's who the Yankees are expected to face this weekend:

• Nick Martinez: 1.51 ERA
• Drew Rasmussen: 3.19 ERA
• Shane McClanahan: 2.82 ERA

All three starters have been awesome to start the season, and Judge needs to get going to help a lineup that is not getting anything from the bottom of the order.

Clawing back into AL East contention

The Yankees enter the three-game series 4.5 games behind the Rays for first place in the AL East. 

This weekend is also important for potential tiebreaker situations later in the season. The Rays swept a three-game series in Tampa back in mid-April, so the Yanks want to try and even up the season series. Considering the head-to-head with the Blue Jays last season cost the Yankees the division, they'll want to avoid a similar fate.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Ben Rice

The young slugger continues his tear.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?

Gerrit Cole

Even not knowing who the Yankees will deploy on Saturday and Sunday, Cole is rested and will be impressive against the AL East rivals.

Which Rays player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Junior Caminero

Caminero is the best player on the team and it'll be difficult to get him out this weekend.

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Two slumping teams meet tonight at Camden Yards as the Detroit Tigers visit the Baltimore Orioles for the first of a three-game set. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. 

My Tigers vs. Orioles predictions are targeting Baltimore to hand Detroit their seventh straight loss behind Chris Bassitt's excellence at home.

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 22. 

Who will win Tigers vs Orioles today: Orioles moneyline (-126)

Detroit Tigers SP Jack Flaherty sports a poor 5.70 ERA, with a 14.1% walk rate, through 10 starts — and opponents are hitting .295 against him when he's on the road. 

The Baltimore Orioles lineup has also had success vs. the righty, hitting .308 across 26 at-bats. Pete Alonso alone is 3-for-6.

As for the O's, Chris Bassitt gets the baseball, and he's compiled a 2.91 ERA across four appearances at home. To put that into perspective, his ERA sits above eight on the road. 

The Tigers are struggling immensely at the dish right now, scoring just eight runs in their previous series with the Guardians. 

COVERS INTEL: Flaherty has a career-worst 45% hard hit rate this season. 

Tigers vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-106)

It's rarely high-scoring when the Tigers and Orioles clash. Six of the last seven meetings have comfortably cashed the Under.

Detroit and Baltimore have both hit the Under in seven of their last 10.

While the pitching matchup could mean offense, I'm focused on Bassitt's impressive form at Camden Yards. 

He's looked like a completely different pitcher in front of the O's faithful, and he's coming up against a Tigers lineup that looks utterly hopeless at the moment. 

Detroit ranks 28th in the big leagues in runs scored, while the O's are 16th. 

Tigers vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Tigers +117 | Orioles -122
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-178) | Orioles -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Tigers vs Orioles trend

The Orioles have hit the Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 54% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Orioles.

How to watch Tigers vs Orioles and game info

Tigers vs Orioles latest injuries

Tigers vs Orioles weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Over the course of the first 50 games of the season, Andy Pages has emerged as the most dynamic player within the Dodgers offense. Among a lineup with a trio at the top that has combined for nine World Series rings and six MVPs, Pages has been one of the main leaders in terms of counting stats and averages on the team.

Pages may have struggled over the six games on this current road trip— .231 average vs. Angels, .091 average vs. Padres— he managed to have plenty of highlight plays defensively on Saturday and had arguably the most competitive at-bat for the Dodgers this year against Mason Miller on Tuesday.

Justin Wrobleski, who started against the Angels on Saturday, shared his reaction to Pages robbing a hit against Nolan Schanuel to get him out of the inning, per Sonja Chen of MLB.com. Freddie Freeman also gave his thoughts on Pages’ battle against Miller on Tuesday that gave the Dodgers the deciding run over the Padres.

Justin Wrobleski, after Pages laid out for a jaw-dropping catch that saved a run on Saturday night: “I thought it was a hit, and then I thought he might get there and then I was like, “Oh he’s going to try.’ And then he dove and he caught it, and I was like, ‘That was the coolest thing ever.'”

Freddie Freeman, after Pages’ epic nine-pitch at-bat against vaunted Padres closer Mason Miller on Tuesday night: “It was one of the greatest at-bats I’ve ever seen in person, and I’ve been playing a long time. That at-bat was incredible. … To hit 95 [mph] is hard, to hit 100 is even harder, to hit 102 is even probably the hardest thing to do, and to foul off 102s back to back, sliders at 87, 88 — one of the best at-bats I’ve ever seen.”

While Miller has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball this year, Pages simply views him as a “pitcher who throws hard.”

 “He’s a good pitcher, but to me, he’s simply a pitcher who throws hard, and if you’re able to get on time against him, you can do damage against him.”

Links

Shohei Ohtani was in the lineup during a start day on Wednesday for the first time since April 8 against the Toronto Blue Jays, and he delivered by tossing five shutout innings after beginning the game with a leadoff home run on the very first pitch.

There is still no concrete long-term plan as to how Dave Roberts will decide whether Ohtani will be in the lineup when he pitches or not, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

“I think he understands that it’s fluid,” Roberts said. “I don’t think that there is one model. It should be a read and react thing. I don’t know how the week is going to look after this off day.

“I could change my mind and have him not hit in his next outing, but that’s more on workload and how he feels.”

Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has a very insightful piece about Justin Wrobleski’s path from struggling at Clemson University, toiling between Triple-A and the big leagues the past two years, to becoming one of the best young starters in baseball today.

The Pirates were initially seen as failures in the offseason when they weren’t able to add a player to be their everyday third baseman. The Ke’Bryan Hayes trade that the team made at the deadline in 2025 left more questions than answers and admittedly I thought the Pirates were foolish to trade Hayes away in the first place. I’m happy now to eat crow and admit that the gamble to this point has paid off, and Nick Gonzales has been a welcomed presence at the hot corner.

Gonzales overall has put together a nice campaign in the early parts of the 2026 season. It was fortuitous for Gonzales that Jared Triolo landed on the injured list at the beginning of April with right knee injury, but the former has made the most of his opportunities as a starter. This year the New Mexico State product is hitting .319/.379/.363 with a .741 OPS. Gonzales has scored 21 runs of his own and has batted in 21 as well with 51 total hits at this point in the season. Gonzales is also hitting .364 with runners in scoring position.

Not only is Gonzales proving to be a valued asset for Pittsburgh, he’s shown that the Pirates sticking with the core of defenders that they have was the smart move. While a long term upgrade at the position could still be on the horizon, the interim has worked out just fine. As a matter of fact, Gonzales has the highest WAR amongst all other qualified National League Central third baseman.

Considering he is essentially serving as a replacement for Hayes, it’s incredible how much better Gonzales has been performing in comparison to the former Bucco. Gonzales’ 1.2 WAR on the season speaks volumes within the division, especially considering the fact that Hayes’ has a lowly -0.2 WAR with an ugly .142/.195/.225 slash line. Gonzales is also outperforming Alex Bergman who has a 0.8 WAR, Nolan Gorman who has a 0.5 WAR and Luis Rengifo who has a -0.5 WAR.

To put it plainly, Gonzales contributes to winning baseball games. Despite the fact that the Pirates sit at fourth in the tightly contested NL Central, their 26-24 record has been a major improvement from how the team looked last year. Gonzales doesn’t provide a ton of pop at the plate, but he is a sure contact hitter, and having him in the lineup more consistently has contributed to more scoring opportunities.

Gonzales is back to splitting time with Jared Triolo at third base now that he’s healthy, but manager Don Kelly has stuck with the hot bat for the most part since the latter’s return. Both make meaningful contributions to the team, but Gonzales is having a special year at the plate and really affects winning for this Pittsburgh ball club in a way that Triolo has not been able to to this point.

The Guardians just swept a four-game series from the preseason presumptive division favorite Tigers and now they head to Philadelphia to play a hot Phillies team.

Zack Meisel has a pop quiz about what has stood oit about the Guardians so far, and he and Cody Stevenhagen wrote about how they continue to own the AL Central.

The Guardians completed another 13 games in 13 days stretch on Wednesday against the Nationals and then they have more regular days off until June 16th where they begin 19 games in a row. You may have properly guessed, then, that their off-days are regularly interspersed through the rest of the season. If they can survive that long, that should help them finish strong.

Check out the latest episode of Disgusting Baseball Podcast with myself and Nick Karavolos here.

AROUND MLB:

Blue Jays shutout the Yankees and now the Guardians are a half-game behind New York in win-loss record, which is fun.

In light of the numerous injuries, the Atlanta Braves have continued the roster shuffle; this time, catcher Maverick Handley was claimed off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles before being optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, righty Hurston Waldrep was transferred to the 60-day injured list. 

28-year-old Handley made his major league debut in 2025 and has since appeared in just 17 big league games. In the minors this season, he’s logged six games, averaged .333, and spent 30 innings behind the plate. The O’s designated him for assignment earlier this week, and the Braves jumped on the opportunity to replenish catchers while Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy are both dealing with injury. 

Prior to those moves, the club continued the Carlos Carrasco saga and selected him to the major league roster.

More Braves News:

Ronald Acuña Jr. exited Thursday’s 9-3 win early due to a thumb injury. Fortunately, the move was precautionary and he is day-to-day. 

Luis Guanipa walked it off for the Augusta GreenJackets on Wednesday. More in the minor league recap. 

MLB News:

Miami Marlins pitching prospect Robby Snelling will undergo Tommy John surgery and will likely be out until the 2027 All Star Break. 

Athletics center fielder Denzel Clarke suffered a high-grade hamstring strain in a rehab game. He will be out beyond the All Star Break. 

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