Category: Baseball

AJ Smith-Shawver has improved with every start he has made in Gwinnett, and reached new heights with his most complete outing yet in a dismantling of the Norfolk offense. Smith-Shawver’s improved command and ability to hold his stuff late into the game marked significant advances from his earlier games, and in total the Tides managed only one baserunner across 5 1/3 innings against Smith-Shawver.

(58-56) Gwinnett Stripers 3, (40-73) Norfolk Tides 4

Box Score

Statcast

• Patrick Clohisy CF: 3-4, BB .405/.479/.631
• Carlos Santana, 1B: 3-5, 2 RBI, .286/.385/.390
• AJ Smith-Shawver: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 1.66 ERA
• Blake Burkhalter, RP: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1.98 ERA

AJ Smith-Shawver is leaping towards his return to Atlanta and continues to up his performance with each start. Smith-Shawver had a bit of a buffer because he was facing the International League’s worst offense by scoring and OPS, and it was never really a fair matchup. Smith-Shawver dominated and allowed only one hard-hit ball, while managing to miss bats with all four of his pitches at a decent rate. Smith-Shawver didn’t have a huge peak velocity inning like in past starts but was able to hold his velocity across all 95 pitches, averaging 96.2 mph on his fastball in the first inning and 96.3 in the sixth. That and him holding his command for the full game checked off two significant boxes in feeling confident in his return, and the third came by him putting up his best work with his changeup to date. Smith-Shawver still had a problem with leaving the pitch to high up in the strike zone, but did well to land the pitch on his arm side consistently and the pitch featured heavily for him against this predominantly left-handed lineup. Smith-Shawver had some mid-zone misses with his fastball which is the biggest knock you could have on him from this game, but he really had success across the board and was able to move his pitches around the zone and hit spots for most of the outing. There is nothing you can point at in this outing and really criticize Smith-Shawver too heavily over, which is more a sign that he is finally showing off at the level he was prior to surgery. This start carries magnitude in getting Smith-Shawver over the hump and truly ready to contribute to the home stretch of the playoff run.

Patrick Clohisy continues to get on base at an extreme rate, though the conviction with which he is getting his hits continues to fall. He did somehow managed to hit a pitch well below the zone for a 105 mph single in the first inning, but that tendency to swing below the strike has been a consistent theme for him and pitchers are giving him fewer and fewer looks at fastballs. Clohisy is able to recognize and make solid contact with breaking balls and has been hitting them all over the place and finding holes, but in his last 13 games his only extra base hit is a lone double. His ability to make out of zone contact is bolstering his performance and it’s a repeatable skill for him, but there hasn’t seemed to be a shift on his part to adjust to the new approach from opposing pitchers yet. Behind Smith-Shawver the Stripers were able to take a 3-1 lead into the eighth inning of the game, and turned it over to Blake Burkhalter who coming into the game had yet to allow a run at Triple-A this season and only had a total of one earned run allowed all year. Since I’m mentioning all of that you can surely guess what happened next. Burkhalter really did not pitch poorly at least at the start of the inning. He jammed the leadoff guy with a fastball on the corner, but the hitter managed to fight off a bloop single into shallow center field. He then came back to get a strikeout and a soft tapper back to the mound that he made a play on despite slipping on the infield grass, but that slip may have thrown him off a bit. The trainer came out to check on him, and even though Burkhalter stayed in the game after a few tosses to home plate to check he was not the same guy after that. He could not locate anything and walked the next hitter, then left a fat fastball that got hit for a three-run home run. Burkhalter walked the next hitter on four pitches that all missed up and out of the zone and had to be pulled at that point. Burkhalter was cruising prior to the slip and it seems pretty obvious the culprit of the one bad game he has had all season.

Swing and Misses

AJ Smith-Shawver – 16

(50-54) Columbus Clingstones 2, (44-65) Birmingham Barons 3

Box Score

• Eric Hartman, LF: 0-3, 2 BB, .154/.333/.192
• John Gil, SS: 1-4, .280/.367/.360
• Owen Carey, RF: 0-4, .208/.345/.458
• Braden Scott, SP: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 2.14 ERA

The refreshed Columbus offense didn’t get off to a hot start in Birmingham, where they got shut down for most of the game and then choked away a two-run lead late with the assistance of three errors. It didn’t take long for Eric Hartman to make his mark on the game when he led off with a walk in the first inning. He stole second base and advanced to third on the attempt to throw him out, putting him in position to score the first run of the game on a ground out. Unfortunately both John Gil and Owen Carey struck out in the inning and had two strikeouts each in the game. Hartman walked again in his second plate appearance but was stranded and didn’t make an impact for the remainder of the evening. Hartman had a hard hit ball in the fifth inning that got knocked down by the second baseman for an out, and while that was the best contact from the trio it wasn’t the only solid hit. John Gil hit a sharp grounder to lead off the next inning, and even though the shortstop made a diving play he couldn’t get up in time to throw out Gil and sailed the throw allowing Gil to move into scoring position. Gil would eventually score the game’s second run on a gapper from Jordan Groshans with two outs, and headed into the latter half of the game Columbus had a 2-0 lead. In the ninth inning Carey finally joined the party and reached on an error, but after getting to third base with one out Adam Zebrowski struck out and Luke Waddell flied out to strand a key insurance run in scoring position. In the tenth inning Hartman struck out to end the inning with no runs scored and Birmingham went on to walk the game off in the bottom of the tenth.

It was a shaky game for Braden Scott, but he somehow managed to make it work and keep the Barons off of the scoreboard for five innings. Scott ran into bouts of trouble with his control and he missed fewer bats than he’s accustomed to due to his locations not working for him, but he didn’t give up much hard contact and that made the difference. Scott has enough movement on all of his pitches that hitters aren’t able to get a good look at him, especially with his funky delivery, and for five innings in this game it worked and he allowed no hits. In the sixth inning the Barons managed to push across a run, but going into the ninth the Clingstones had to feel confident with Tyler LaPorte on the mound and a one run lead. That faith was dashed by an abhorrent defensive showing. Gil got a bit in between hops on a backhand play and had trouble wrangling it, failing to get a clean transfer which allowed the leadoff hitter to reach on an error. LaPorte then hurt his own cause, turning and firing a throw on a bunt attempt to second which sailed wide and pulled Gil off of the bag. Gil made a terrific play to keep the ball from going into center field, but with the damage done it was going to be hard for LaPorte to protect the lead. A sacrifice bunt moved both runners up a base, and LaPorte uncorked a wild pitch that tied the game and put the winning run 90 feet away. Columbus got bailed out by a hard grounder finding its way right to Groshans at third base who cut down the runner trying to score, and Zebrowski gunned down the runner trying to steal to end a tumultuous inning. After a terrible effort in the top of the tenth LaPorte had to try to strand the runner, and didn’t get off to a bad start when he fielded a comebacker and got the leadoff hitter at first base. LaPorte then hit the next batter and issued an intentional walk to load the bases, both of which probably helped the Clingstones cause, but he left a slider middle-middle and of course the next hitter burned Dalton McIntyre on a deep line drive for a walk off hit.

Swing and Misses

Braden Scott – 8

LJ McDonough – 6

(50-55) Rome Emperors 9, (37-70) Asheville Tourists 14

Box Score

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 1-5, .152/.152/.242
• Conor Essenburg, RF: 0-3, 2 BB, .185/.333/.333
• Alex Lodise, SS: 2-4, BB, .311/.429/.489
• Ethan Bagwell, SP: 1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.66 ERA

The Emperors are in Asheville this week, so even though they’re facing an awful team things are going to get crazy in a way that isn’t going to be fun for Rome pitchers. Ethan Bagwell got hammered, though the park really wasn’t fully to blame for his troubles. Bagwell couldn’t throw strikes and he didn’t last long into the second inning, finishing out with six runs allowed over one official inning of work. Bagwell was removed in the second inning after a meeting with the trainer, though there wasn’t an obvious reason for the trainer to be out there at least from what can be seen on MiLB tv. Bagwell doesn’t pitch this poorly ever, really, and he could possibly have been hurt, so there isn’t really anything meaningful to glean from this start. He’s going to come out the next time around and not have nearly the amount of command issues he did in this game when he couldn’t land anything, and it’s one of those days that every pitcher is bound to have at some point. Bagwell has been terrific at Rome otherwise and this is the first time he didn’t pitch into at least the fifth inning since his start in Augusta on May 22nd that was delayed by rain after two innings. Realistically it’s the only time this entire season he hasn’t pitched well enough to get at least into the fifth inning, which is remarkable consistency for a player this young that was seen as a project when he was drafted.

The game didn’t get any better once Bagwell was out of there. Logan Samuels walked five hitters in 1 2/3 innings of work so Rome was staring down an 11-1 deficit and a ton of relief innings after just three frames. Offensively they at least made some interest out of the game, and it’s worth just going through every guy one-by-one. Starting with Luis Guanipa, he did have an opposite field single in the game, but it’s more of the same and I really don’t like where he is right now at the plate. He’s tumbled back into bad habits and is slow getting to contact, shooting everything up the middle or away and not really hitting it hard when he does. It’s still early at this level but there hasn’t been a meaningful adjustment to his approach, and while he is making a ton of contact and always will even when he chases he is already running into pitchers who are good enough to make his approach untenable. Conor Essenburg had a solid game at the plate and looked great in terms of his approach, though he did get frozen for called strike threes on borderline pitches twice. Both of these were deep counts, however, and he drew two walks to boot. Essenburg is having a bit of an adjustment to the jump in quality between levels but overall has looked fine at the plate and I’d expect him to have at least a couple of good stretches at the plate intermixed with times he strikes out too much. Alex Lodise added two more hits and a walk to his ridiculous streak at the plate, and once again he didn’t have a strikeout. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a player jump levels and suddenly stop striking out without really changing his approach or sacrificing power but Lodise is hitting everything and hitting it hard. He’s absolutely earning it and this is sort of who I expected him to be in Single-A where I was surprised pitchers at that level were able to get him to whiff so much. I don’t think he’s in the clear because this is a small sample and the approach issues are not going anywhere, but nonetheless these two weeks have been a huge positive development. Cody Miller had his first big day at the plate since being promoted, and he just missed a home run when he hit a double off of the top half of the wall to drive in two runs. Miller has not shaken the strikeout issues but the more patient approach at the plate he showed in Augusta has carried over and those swing decisions will hopefully lead to more consistent results from him in the final weeks of the year.

Swing and Misses 

Jacob Shafer – 5

Tanner Bauman – 5

Ethan Bagwell – 4

(57-50) Augusta GreenJackets 5, (61-48) Charleston RiverDogs 7

Box Score

• Carter Beck, CF: 0-5, .346/.414/.346
• Juan Mateo, 2B: 1-5, .254/.335/.347
• Parker Brosius, RF: 2-5, 2B, .333/.458/.556
• Derek Vartanian, SP: 6.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 4.23 ERA

And we end the day with another ugly loss caused by a pitching implosion. Augusta pitchers shut out the RiverDogs through six innings of this game and held a 3-0 lead, then allowed seven runs in the final three innings. Derek Vartanian was decent in his start as it was one of the times he was able to find the strike zone with his sinker and get results early in counts. Charleston hitters were rolling over everything for six innings of this game, then in the seventh inning locked in and started mashing everything Vartanian had to offer. They had three line drive singles and a line out off of Vartanian, and even with this sudden increase in hard contact the GreenJackets didn’t budge and made Vartanian work it out. He did not do that. Vartanian threw one up in the strike zone at 88 mph, and even at this level you can’t make that mistake. Vartanian gave up a three run home run, and after six innings of dominance he walked off of the field trailing by a run. The bullpen didn’t help him much either, though the defense committing errors that led to three unearned runs didn’t help the team’s cause.

Surprisingly it was not Carter Beck doing a lot of the damage in this game, though Parker Brosius certainly had his say. Brosius had a two hit game and doubled, though his three strikeouts dampened what was an otherwise strong addition to his start of games. Mostly the offense just scraped together singles up and down the lineup, and when they had runners in scoring position they were able to come through with clutch hits. Beck had not gone a game without a hit prior to this, though there really isn’t anything worth taking away from his performance in Augusta. It has been nice to see him on the field and guys meeting expectations isn’t a small feat based on what the college hitters drafted last year have done, but Beck is just too good a pure hitter to not feast in Single-A. Beck is definitely going to have to get a primer on how to take more pitches out of the strike zone, but he can flat out hit and Single-A has not been a challenge.

Swing and Misses

Derek Vartanian – 9

Adiel Melendez – 4

Morning, all!

Monday marked the first game in a stretch against a couple of cellar dwellers, and the Rangers capitalized by winning 4-1 in extras against the Angels.

Unfortunately, the offense was flacid last night despite ample opportunities, so the signs aren’t pointing to a momentum building road trip.

Cody Bradford was a bright spot, though, making it through seven innings on 75 pitches . His outing Tuesday night marks only the third time that feat has been managed by a Ranger pitcher since 1988.

Jonah Bride has been designated for assignment and Jared Kelenic has replaced him on the roster ahead of a stretch of right handed pitchers.

Robby Ahlstrom has been lights out out of the bullpen since the All Star break, making the most of his first major league opportunity this season.

Jordan Montgomery finally made it back to the mound on Sunday after an extensive rehab following elbow surgery, and may soon be back in the rotation to fill in for Nathan Eovaldi who just landed on the IL.

Mike Maddux has been fired by the Angels, with interim manager John Mozeliak noting that Maddux and his coaching staff were not making use of the technological tools available to them.https://www.mlb.com/news/angels-dismiss-mike-maddux-dom-chiti-darryl-scott

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It's back to the grindstone, as there's no rest ahead of our MLB expert picks on Wednesday, Aug. 12.

Today, our baseball gurus are looking at a pair of plus-money moneyline picks, an Under between two struggling offenses, and a Boston Red Sox team righting the ship after dropping two straight to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Let's dive in with today's MLB picks!

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: STL ML	+144
Jon Metler: SD ML	+108
Dustin Saracini: SEA/NYY u8.5	+108
Joe Osborne: BOS ML	-117

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Cardinals moneyline

Price: 41¢ (+144) at Polymarket

I want to fade Zack Wheeler in a lot of places today.

The Philadelphia Phillies righty is coming off a 116-pitch outing, his highest pitch count in more than five seasons. Making things worse, he threw just 32 pitches in his rain-shortened start before that and was pulled after 68 pitches in the prior outing, after allowing five runs over three innings. 

There is also the ongoing distraction about whether his foot has been on the rubber, another distraction coming off a massive workload and not being in great form. 

St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy is a perfect home starter to back here, as he has quietly been one of the least-respected pitchers in baseball. He owns a 1.49 ERA over his last eight starts, with 40 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings, and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those outings.

Wheeler is overpriced in this matchup, and I'll take the 41 cents that I'd play to 45. 

The Over 7.5 is also showing value.

• Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Cardinals.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Padres moneyline

Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket

The Milwaukee Brewers might have the best record in baseball, but I'm siding with the underdog. Polymarket has the San Diego Padres trading at 48 cents, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us a meaningful edge at the current price. 

A big part of that projection comes down to Petco Park. Robbie Ray's high fly-ball rate and susceptibility to home runs are less concerning in San Diego, where the marine layer and spacious dimensions can suppress his home-run variance. I'd be much less interested in backing him in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are also likely to stack aggressive right-handed hitters against Ray, creating a favorable matchup for his pitch mix. If he can establish his four-seam fastball up in the zone before sequencing his slider below the knees, he should generate chases and use the slider as a put-away pitch, keeping Milwaukee's lineup off balance.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Mariners at Yankees Under 8.5

Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket

This is a matchup between two offenses that are in a tailspin.

The Seattle Mariners have lost five straight without scoring more than two runs. Their reward is seeing Will Warren on the mound, who's punched out this Seattle lineup at a 28% clip while limiting them to a .198 xBA across 35 plate appearances.

It doesn't get much easier for the New York Yankees, who own a .222 xwOBA against Bryce Miller. The Mariners right-hander has dominated the heart of the New York lineup, too, holding Heliot Ramos, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jazz Chisholm to a 3-for-14 mark. 

What does that all add up to? An Under.

Play this to 55 cents over at Polymarket.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: ESPN

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline

Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket

The Boston Red Sox have a major offensive edge in this matchup and are in a great position to get back on track.

Boston has been the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, ranking first in OPS, and now faces Jose Soriano in his first home start with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Soriano has struggled with walks, which is a concern against a Red Sox lineup that consistently draws free passes.

Ranger Suarez should also be set up for a strong outing, as Toronto ranks 29th in OPS against lefties and at home over the past month. Boston’s bullpen, second in both ERA and FIP over the last two weeks, only strengthens the case.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NESN, Sportsnet

More MLB best bets for today

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Last night one of the Nationals top ranked prospects finally made his season debut after recovering from injury. After undergoing lat surgery late last season, Jarlin Susana has been out of commission recovering. However, he made his debut and looked as electric as ever. The big righty tossed two scoreless innings, allowing no hits, walking two and striking out two. Here is a look at those two punch outs.

When it comes to raw stuff, there might not be a better pitching prospect in all of minor league baseball than Susana. He has a triple digit heater as well as a slider that might be even better. Susana has the ability to manipulate the slider into a couple different shapes. Some are hard downers, while others look more like curveballs.

All of the shapes are absolutely filthy and gets loads of whiffs. Last night’s outing was short, but it was very encouraging. Lat surgeries can be tricky, and it can sometimes take a while for guys to regain their stuff. That does not appear to be an issue for Susana.

According to folks at the game, Susana was sitting 101-103 MPH with his heater. He utilized both a 4-seamer and a sinker. Apparently, he also showcased a new sweeper that was around 89 MPH with serious horizontal break. This is just nuclear grade stuff from the righty. Susana’s arm is just ridiculously special and seems to be too big to fail.

Even with shaky command, Susana’s stuff is so good that he is very likely to be an impactful big leaguer if healthy. However, a couple questions still remain. The first one is about his previously mentioned health. He has a pretty lengthy injury history at this point, with a couple elbow scares and that lat surgery. Susana has only thrown more than 100 innings once in his career. 

The other concern is his strike-throwing. With this being his first outing in nearly a year, some command rust was expected. However, he only threw 14 of his 28 pitches for strikes. That will need to improve as he keeps building up. Susana will never have pinpoint command, but all he needs to do is to be generally around the strike zone. 

These two questions give him some relief risk. With his stuff though, Susana would likely be one of the best closers in the game. His stuff, shaky injury record and lackluster command is similar to Mason Miller when he was coming through the Minor Leagues. If Susana does have to be a reliever, he could be that level of closer.

However, the Nats are going to let him start for now. It is the right move in my opinion. There was a time not too long ago where Jacob Misiorowski was a hard throwing arm with a lot of relief risk. In fact, entering the 2025 season, most people projected him as a bullpen arm. With some strike throwing improvements, the Miz has become the most dominant starter in the league.

Susana getting to that level is a long shot, but it is not impossible either. There are only a handful of pitching prospects in the game you can say that about. His peaks are the most impressive highs we have seen from a Nats pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. The 22 year old remains a bit of a wild horse who still needs to be tamed though.

One outing that will always stick with me is what he did against the Tigers Double-A team last year. That team included the likes of Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle and Josue Briceno, all top 50 prospects at the time. Susana carved through that lineup like butter, striking out 13 in 5 innings of work. He touched 104 MPH and snapped off some of the nastiest sliders you will ever see.

It is easy to forget sometimes, but Susana also came in that Juan Soto deal. As if that deal was not already good enough, the Nats have another piece with insane upside from that deal. At the time, he was a raw 18 year old who recently signed out of the Dominican Republic. It has been a very slow burn, but Susana is back now, and is ready to take the MLB by storm when the time comes.

The command is shaky, but with his stuff, I have little doubt that Susana will be a productive big leaguer when he is on the mound. That last part is still a question mark, and seeing Susana stay healthy is massively important. The best way to improve command is getting a lot of reps, which Susana is going to need.

It will be interesting to see what the Nats do with him as the season comes to a close. Last night he rebabbed in Wilmington, but I am not sure what is next. A big league debut is highly unlikely, but there is a solid chance he gets up to Triple-A by the end of the season.

After the season, I think Susana is going to get some innings under his belt in the Arizona Fall League. Getting built up coming off the injury is a key step for him. He will have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, so a big league debut is on the horizon.

Assuming there is a season, I think 2027 will be the year where Susana announces himself to the world. His stuff and pure size makes him impossible to keep your eyes off of. Jarlin Susana is the most electric pitching prospect in the world, and it is great to see him back on the mound.

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The New York Yankees won a low-scoring series opener on Tuesday, and they're -130 to add to their win total in Game 2.

Both starting pitchers have posted underwhelming results of late, but Will Warren's process is a lot more encouraging. 

That's a big reason I'm backing the pinstripes with my Mariners vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12.

Who will win Mariners vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (-130)

Will Warren and Bryce Miller have posted very similar results over the past month. The difference is how they arrived at them.

Warren has been incredibly unlucky, with a strong 2.58 xFIP and 48.9% ground-ball rate wiped out by an unsustainably high .389 BABIP and nearly 40% of baserunners scoring.

Miller owns a 5.24 xFIP over the same time while posting a 50% fly-ball rate and allowing well over two homers per nine.

Both offenses are struggling, so I want to be on the side of the better pitching. 

Back the New York Yankees to -140.

COVERS INTEL: Among today's starters, Miller ranks 28th in xFIP the past month.

Mariners vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-105)

Warren has pitched much better than his results indicate. The tide will turn sooner rather than later, and a matchup with the Seattle Mariners is the perfect time.

They are toothless against righties, posting a .274 wOBA (28th) and 43.1 GB% (24th) the last 30 days.

The Yankees have hit for more power but rank dead last with a .194 batting average over the same span.

While they may capitalize on Miller’s recent struggles at keeping the ball in the park, there’s unlikely to be much traffic on the basepaths.

I make the total 7.8 and would bet to -125.

Mariners vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice (+235)

Miller’s Achilles' heel is preventing the home run, ranking in the 27th percentile in HR/9.

Ben Rice has feasted on such opponents all year long. Isolating starters in the 30th or lower, Rice has left the park in nine of 22 games — and six of 13 when facing a righty.

Miller throws the fastball 42% of the time, and Rice is sporting a ridiculous .597 ISO against that pitch.

This is a really nice spot for Rice to come back to life at the plate.

I’d back Rice to +200.

Mariners vs Yankees weather

The conditions will provide a boost to hitters as temperatures are expected to reach the 80s with slight winds blowing west.

Mariners vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Mariners +110 | Yankees -130
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Mariners vs Yankees trend

New York has hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.60 units, 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.

How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info

Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries

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There was no comeback or late-game heroics needed by the San Diego Padres against the Milwaukee Brewers in the second game of their three-game series because the Padres exploded for 11 runs on 17 hits in an 11-2 win over the Brewers at Petco Park on Tuesday night. San Diego also secured a series win after winning the first two games against Milwaukee.

The Padres got on the board early, scoring five runs in the bottom of the second inning off Brewers starter Kyle Harrison. The big blow came off the bat of Luis Rengifo who hit a grand slam home run to left field to give San Diego a 5-0 lead. That was all the support Padres starter Walker Buehler would need as the veteran right-hander worked through six innings, allowing one run on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts.

San Diego continued to add to its run total after Buehler allowed a run in the top of the third to make the score, 5-1. Fernando Tatis Jr. connected on a solo home run to right field in the bottom of the fourth and Luis Campusano connected on a two-run home run in the bottom of the fifth to make the score, 8-1. The Padres were not done and added three more runs to their total in the bottom of the sixth inning to take a commanding 11-1 lead.

The Brewers were able to scratch another run across in the top of the ninth inning against Griffin Canning, but it was too little too late as the home team went on to a nine-run win. This was a big win for the Padres as both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies both lost, allowing San Diego to force a three-way tie for the last two National League Wild Card positions.

The Padres will go for the series sweep today at 1:10 p.m.

Padres News:

• Ethan Salas has not been with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas for long, but he is already making his presence felt as he pushes for a callup.

• The Padres and Brewers are both trying to get to the postseason and Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says the clubs are on different paths en route to that goal.

• According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, MLB owners are supposed to vote Monday to approve new ownership of the Padres.

• Jackson Merrill has returned to form and his success in the second half has resulted in team success.

Baseball News:

• Blake Snell recorded 10 strikeouts in his return to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• The Chicago Cubs stayed hot with another win over the Washington Nationals.

• The Cincinnati Reds knocked off the Chicago White Sox.

• The Atlanta Braves got a shutout win over the New York Mets.

• Andre Pallante pitched the St. Louis Cardinals to a 2-0 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bobby Miller encountered some problems in his second appearance back from injury in Triple-A, and the Drillers overcame a blown save to beat the Travelers in walk-off fashion.

Player of the day

When the most impressive game is also the one with the biggest impact, the choice is easy, and such was the case for Nico Perez, who delivered one of his finest performances of the season. The Loons’ second baseman left the yard twice, both of them two-run shots in a 6-3 win.

What adds to the surprise of this game is that it’s not as if power has been a major part of Perez’s game. After all, he came into this game yesterday with just 13 long balls in 159 games across his minor league career.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Other than Ronan Kopp—who had to maneuver his way through three baserunners to complete one scoreless frame—every other Comets pitcher that stepped on the mound allowed at least a run as the Comets wasted an early lead in a blowout loss 13-7.

One of those pitchers who had a tough time was Bobby Miller, allowing three runs and striking out one in a couple of innings of work. The loss, though, went to Ryder Ryan, allowing two more runs after Miller. Lastly, the worst performance that put this game to bed was from Griff McGarry, responsible for five runs without recording an out.

In most games, the Comets’ seven runs would’ve been enough with homers from Hyeseong Kim, Alex Freeland, and Zach Ehrhard, but not when the staff lets in 13. Having hit nine homers in June, Ehrhard had been dealing with a bit of a power drought, without leaving the yard in his last 17 games.

Double-A Tulsa

Outhomering the opposition three to zero, the Drillers still had to grind out a one-run win in a high-scoring game since all of their long balls were solo shots. Leadoff hitter Taylor Young, first baseman Joe Veltrano, and shortstop Eljah Hainline were the ones to leave the yard, which is somewhat surprising given that the trio combined has only 20 homers this season.

Following a four-run rally from the Travelers in the eighth, the game was tied at seven heading into extras. That’s when Hainline sent everyone home with a force-out walk-off on a bouncing ball down the third base line that allowed no attempt at a play at the plate.

High-A Great Lakes

Hitting cleanup for a second baseman isn’t a common occurrence. Nico Perez justified his spot there, accumulating four RBI to help the Loons erase an early three-run deficit to beat the Cubs at home in a battle of first-place teams.

Vastly improving on his success rate from a year ago, Eduardo Quintero stole a couple of bags in a 2-for-4 performance, now with 39 on the season, having been caught just six times. Recently promoted to High-A, Mairo Martinus was one of four Loons players with multiple hits, including an RBI.

Single-A Ontario

Starter Cam Leiter did his part with three scoreless frames, but the bullpen didn’t come close to matching that level of performance—homers allowed by Josehp Marte and Javier Bartolazzi were enough to surrender the game in a 5-1 defeat with little to no production from the offense to capitalize on three errors from the Quakes defense.

When Joendry Vargas was stranded at third in the first following a triple—his sixth of the season—it was a preview of the type of game the Tower Buzzers would have, whose only RBI came from the catcher Francisco Espinoza. The king of singles in Single-A, Espinoza has 22 hits in 20 games for Ontario, 19 of them singles.

Transactions

The Dodgers optioned left-handed pitcher Charlie Barnes to the Oklahoma City Comets.

Tuesday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 7, Albuquerque 13
• Tulsa 8, Arkansas 7
• Great Lakes 6, South Bend 3
• Rancho Cucamonga 5, Ontario 1

Wednesday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Jacob Frost) vs. South Bend (Braylon Myers)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Emmet Sheehan) vs. Albuquerque (TBD)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Adam Serwinowski) vs. Arkansas (Ryan Hawks)
• 6:30 p.m. PT: Ontario (Luis Carias) at Rancho Cucamonga (Trey Gregory-Alford)

Ahead of the trade deadline, the Metsinformed teams that onlyJuan Soto,Carson Benge,A.J. Ewing, Christian Scott, andNolan McLean were off-limits. Left off that list was Francisco Lindor, which naturally led to frenzied speculation regarding his future in Queens.

Shortly before that, owner Steve Cohen had discussed the perceived Lindor-Soto feud that existed in 2025, saying that it was "last year's story" and that he didn't see either player "going anywhere."

But soon after the Mets made their deadline strategy known, David Stearns danced around a question about Lindor's future.

"I'm not going to rule out or in any specific player on anything," Stearns said on July 24. "I don't think that's wise for me to do. What I will say is, we've got a group of young players and we've got some potential Hall-of-Famers, future Hall-of-Famers, that we view as our core. We expect them to be our core."

With the deadline in the rearview and Lindor still a Met, the shortstop discussed his future on Tuesday.

"The plan is to be here for my contract," Lindor told Mike Puma of The New York Post. "When I signed up here, it was to be in the good times and bad times and to win."

Lindor, 32, is in the fifth year of a 10-year, $341 million extension he signed before the 2021 season. And as someone who has 10-and-5 rights, he has the power to refuse any potential trade. 

While speaking with The Post, Lindor also weighed in on his faith in Stearns and the overall direction of the franchise.

"We have the right guys," he said. "Stearns is the right guy. That is No. 1. We have one of the best owners in sports history, because [Cohen] is going to go always with the energy that needs to be put into the team. When you are in a big market there is not such a thing as rebuilding. There is a little bit of transition, that is it. You can’t afford to rebuild in big markets, so I think we are working toward the right place. We have not taken a step backwards."

As he talked about the Mets' future, Lindor name-dropped some of the prospects who were acquired at the deadline -- including infielder Jefferson Rojas, who was acquired from the Cubs in the deal that sent Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to Chicago, and should make his debut at some point during the 2027 season.

Throughout the season, Stearns has been clear that the Mets intend to retool ahead of next season with an eye on an immediate return to contention.

That will almost certainly be easier to accomplish if Lindor remains in the fold.

Lindor missed about two months earlier this season due to a serious calf injury, but has been terrific since returning from the IL on June 24.

In 174 plate appearances over 40 games since being activated, Lindor is hitting .253/.339/.487 (.826 OPS) with nine homers, five doubles, two triples, 22 runs scored, and 25 RBI.

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The Milwaukee Brewers visit the San Diego Padres this afternoon as a -113 moneyline favorite at Petco Park, with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET. 

San Diego is flourishing offensively, and my Brewers vs. Padres predictions are eyeing them to jump on Dustin May in just his second start with Milwaukee. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12. 

Who will win Brewers vs Padres today: Padres (+105)

The San Diego Padres send Robbie Ray to the mound for just his second outing since the trade. He struggled in his debut, allowing four earned runs, but the left-hander was sharp before that, posting a 2.08 FIP across his previous three starts.

The bigger focus is the Milwaukee Brewers' issues against southpaws. The Brewers own a 92 wRC+ versus lefties compared to a 108 mark against righties, and they also have a 92 wRC+ over the last week.

Dustin May allowed two earned runs in his Milwaukee debut, but he carried a 4.79 xERA over his previous three appearances. He now faces a Padres lineup with a 125 wRC+ over its last seven games.

I’ll back San Diego down to +100.

COVERS INTEL: The Padres have surged offensively over the last month, posting a 128 wRC+ compared to their 98 season mark. That 30-point jump makes San Diego a difficult lineup to fade right now.

Brewers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

This total sits at 8.5, and I lean Under. San Diego is swinging it well with a .204 ISO over the last week, but Milwaukee has shown less power, posting just a .147 ISO during that span.

The bullpen profiles also point toward a lower-scoring finish. San Diego’s relief corps has been elite, owning a 2.26 FIP over its last 26.2 innings while allowing just 0.34 HR/9. Milwaukee’s bullpen has also been sharp with a 2.84 FIP over the last week and the same 0.34 HR/9 allowed.

The late-inning matchup is the separator here, and both relief corps are in strong enough form to keep this total contained.

I’ll play this pick up to -130.

Brewers vs Padres home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr (+474)

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s power is finally waking up. The Padres star has clubbed four home runs in his last seven games while posting a massive .500 ISO.

His barrel rate sits at 26.9% over the last week, and his launch angle is up to 22.8 degrees during that span. In fact, 53.8% of his contact lately has been in the air. While May and the Brewers’ bullpen are not especially prone to the long ball right now, Tatis’ red-hot batted-ball profile is impossible to ignore.

Plus, even though May hasn’t had many homer issues lately, he is allowing 1.31 HR/9 on the road this season.

Play this pick down to +400.

Brewers vs Padres weather

Weather at Petco Park looks very stable today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting at 74 degrees throughout the afternoon. Winds are moderate around 9 mph, humidity is high, and rain chances are 0%. Overall, conditions look clean and mostly neutral, with no real delay risk.

Brewers vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Brewers -113 | Padres +108
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+144) | Padres +1.5 (-156)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Brewers vs Padres trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres.

How to watch Brewers vs Padres and game info

Brewers vs Padres latest injuries

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For Hickory, Louis Marinaro struck out two and walked one in 1.2 scoreless innings. Aneudis Mejia struck out three in 1.1 scoreless innings. Michael Trausch struck out one and walked one in a shutout inning.

Marco Argudin homered. Noah Franklin had a hit and a walk.

Hickory box score

Hub City’s game got suspended in the third inning with Hub City down 5-0.

Joey Danielson struck out the side in an inning for Frisco. Josh Trentadue allowed a run in an inning of work, walking one. Thomas Ireland struck out two and walked one in two shutout innings.

Frisco box score

For Round Rock, Ryan Lobus struck out three in 1.1 scoreless innings. Gavin Collyer struck out two in an inning of work, allowing one run. Michel Otanez walked one in a scoreless inning. Wilian Bormie walked two and struck out one while allowing a run in an inning of work.

Rehabbing Danny Jansen was 1 for 2 and caught five innings. Cody Freeman doubled and walked. John Taylor was 2 for 5 with a stolen base. Logan O’Hoppe was 2 for 4 with a double and a homer. Aaron Zavala homered. Alejandro Osuna had a hit and a walk.

Round Rock box score

DSL Rangers Red box score

DSL Rangers Blue box score

Angels 3, Rangers 2

• I regret to inform you that there is no winning streak.
• Kind of a weird game, really.
• Cody Bradford made his second start of the year, and though he was on a pitch limit, he still went seven innings.
• How, you may ask? Efficiency. Bradford needed just 75 pitches to get through those seven innings. He faced 26 batters in all, which meant he averaged fewer than three pitches per batter.
• Not surprisingly, given that, he walked only one batter and struck out only one batter.
• Bradford wasn’t missing bats in this outing — he got just four swings and misses. He also gave up a lot of loud contact, giving up 9 hard hit balls out of the 23 balls in play.
• Yet he just gave up five hits, and you would think that five hits and a walk (and, yeah, a hit by pitch thrown in) would mean little in the way of scoring by Anaheim.
• Its that whole sequencing thing, though. Three hits and the hit by pitch all came in the third inning, resulting in three runs.
• One of the three hits was a double, and it came last, which was bad from a sequencing standpoint as well, at least if you were trying to keep runs off the board.
• If there was a double first, then a couple of singles, then a hit by pitch, then you probably are ending the inning with just one run scoring.
• Such is the game of baseball.
• Joc Pederson homered to lead off the game and walked three times, but Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager, hitting in the 2 and 3 spots, were each 0 for 4, so the walks didn’t lead to anything.
• Jarred Kelenic, back in the majors in place of Jonah Bride, who I hope enjoyed his two days in the majors, had a pinch hit RBI single. It was the one hit the Rangers had with runners in scoring position.
• It was a winnable game that the Rangers didn’t win. The Astros lost, so you can either be relieved that the Rangers didn’t lose any ground, or mad that they didn’t move into first place.
• That’s up to you, which way you go with that. I am not going to tell you how to live your life.
• Cody Bradford topped out at 89.8 mph with his fastball, averaging 88.3 mph. Chase Silseth hit 96.5 mph with his fastball.
• Ezequiel Duran had a 105.5 mph single. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.1 mph single and a 100.9 mph single. Joc Pederson had a 104.8 mph homer. Justin Foscue ended the game with a 103.0 mph fly out. Corey Seager had a 101.0 mph fly out.
• Moving on. Another game ahead. Its a marathon, not a sprint.

Tomorrow, the Phillies take to the cornfield in Iowa for the Field of Dreams game. If you build it, they will come (and if you make it available via streaming, they will watch). But tonight, there’s no Phillies baseball to watch; their game is an afternoon affair. That gives you some free time. And what better way to use it than to watch a baseball movie? Perhaps you’ll choose Field of Dreams. Or perhaps another baseball flick is more to your tastes. If you need a reminder about the proper place for crying in baseball (hint: there isn’t one), A League of Their Own will do nicely. Perhaps the quotable patter of Moneyball? If you’d like to see Kevin Costner, but want something a little less sentimental, Bull Durham is never a bad idea.

Today’s question is: what’s your favorite baseball movie?

One of the more fascinating parts of statistics is that they give us the opportunity to prove or disprove the veracity of what we are seeing and experiencing. Games like last night come immediately to the forefront. The Astros load the bases twice in the first two innings with a combined one out and come up with only one run. It often feels like the Astros leave a small village on base. That speaks to offensive efficiency and we have covered that ground before.

It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see that the Astros efficiency rating has gone up this year as they have scored more runs and generally had more offensive success. Their success has also been impressive relative to the rest of the American League. Obviously, most of the function of run scoring is a representation of how many base runners you have. We have to track that to track offensive efficiency. However, over the course of a full season, offensive efficiency (or lack thereof) can account for up to five wins worth of runs.

What we do in this piece is break down one piece of efficiency as we try to determine which factors correlate with offensive efficiency most strongly. Since it has been awhile since we have seen these numbers a quick tutorial is in order. You simply add up hits, walks, and hit by pitches and divide total runs into that. That gives you a number that looks like an OBP. That is a team’s offensive efficiency.

The other good thing about looking at numbers is that there is always more than one way to interpret them. The Astros are third in runs scored and fourth in offensive efficiency in the American League. That means they are doing well right? Well, there is always another way of looking at the numbers. The Astros are second in AL in total base runners, so in theory they should be second in runs scored.

They trail the White Sox by four total runs, so it isn’t like they are lagging by a ton. In the sabermetric world it might be equivalent to a win. Of course, we know how important one additional win and one fewer loss is at this point of the season. That was also true last season when the team’s offensive efficiency numbers were seriously lagging.

However, in this piece we are going to make one minor adjustment to the numbers above. We are simply going to remove home runs. In essence, that means we remove home runs from both the total base runners category and runs scored categories. This will give us a better feel of what the club does with runners on base and we should see an impact on efficiency. If it is a dramatic impact then we probably have a pretty strong correlation with offensive efficiency.

The first thing I should do is clean up a little in how we set up the table. I listed the teams in the same order on purpose. It highlights the dramatic impact that home runs can have on offensive efficiency. The Astros are second in the American League in home runs. Sure, that could mostly be Yordan, but it is still the single biggest difference between the offense this season and last season. We are currently on pace to fly by 200 home runs for the season.

Notice how dramatically these numbers fell across the board. The Astros go from fourth in offensive efficiency to eighth when we account for home runs. One of the first rules in social science is that we don’t ever attribute causation. Home runs don’t cause efficiency overall. However, it is the most efficient way to produce a run in baseball. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that we see such dramatic results when accounting for home runs.

That leaves us with two immediate thoughts. First, we can look at the efficiency of this offense as compared to last season by removing home runs. Is this team really any better than they were a year at hitting in the clutch? Secondly, seeing these numbers out in the open can also impact how teams are built. If we know that home runs are a primary driver of efficiency we can prioritize getting home runs on offense and preventing home runs on defense.

So, this team is legitimately more clutch than they were a season ago. We can give a hat tip to these hitting coaches in addition to Yordan Alvarez. It might not seem like much, but if the Astros had the same efficiency last season independent of home runs they would have scored an addition 21 runs. That is equivalent to two wins and that would have gotten them to October.

We should remember this the next time we complain about excessive base runners being left on base. This team is right around where it should be in terms of getting runs across the pay station. They could always be more efficient, but as we saw last season, they could easily be less efficient. In the meantime, if we ever wonder why power is so prioritized then this is one very significant reason why.

“The 2026 AL is a mess” has basically been an evergreen statement from the time the season started. Looking at the standings right now, the Yankees and Red Sox have fine enough, playoff team-worthy records. And then, you have five teams separated by 2.5 games for the last AL playoff spot… with the 60-60 Rangers leading the pack. Woof.

Projections-wise, it might seem fairly close. The Rangers are projected to be the sixth-best team in the AL in terms of finishing record, with 82ish wins. But, even with about seven weeks of regular season play remaining, the actual playoff entrant isn’t going to be the team that rolls their expected value, but probably the team that hits a higher-percentile outcome. There’s gotta be at least one of those in this quintet, right? (Also, this quintet doesn’t involve the Mariners, who have the roster talent to make a charge, even if they’re further back than 2.5 games.)

On the flip side, you also have to consider that the Astros lead the AL West at just 61-60. So, if, say, the Rangers are the team that “roll high” for the rest of the year, it’s possible that they take not the last Wild Card spot, but the AL West — and if none of the other teams do, maybe that sixth spot really does go to an 81-win team.

It’s kind of sad that this is what it’s come down to, but welcome to the expanded playoff field and the roster malaise era. One hopes that it’s not here to stay, but…

Plenty of fans have given up on the 2026 Orioles, but the other American League wild card contenders have done their best to keep hope alive. There are only a few good teams in the American League, and they all happen to play baseball in the AL East. The Orioles are not one of those teams.

The Orioles ended last night four games below .500 and no less than three games back from the third Wild Card. It’s difficult to believe that this team is even somewhat close to .500. It feels like they lose almost every night. The whiplash of giving up on the team, only to get sucked back in by the obtainable wild card spot, is enough to drive any fan crazy. Losing Adley Rutschman, watching Gunnar Henderson struggle, and getting dominated by Dean Kremer is enough to make any fan start focusing more on the NFL or college football.

I want to look on the bright side, but I can’t recycle the same narrative about this team’s postseason chances. We’ve officially reached the point of the season when I’m dreaming on the potential of fringe relievers. August of 2019 called, and they want their storylines back.

Enter Cam Sanders. Sanders is a 29-year-old with 12 major league games under his belt. The right-hander was drafted in the 12th round by the Chicago Cubs all the way back in 2018. He signed with Pittsburgh as a minor-league free agent before last season and worked his way up from Double-A Altoona to the majors. He made six MLB appearances and allowed six earned runs in 2025.

Sanders pitched to a 2.96 over 22 appearances at Triple-A Indianapolis this season, but he failed to break through with the Bucs. Sanders made nine appearances for the Pirates and allowed nine earned runs. He was designated for assignment in early July and traded to Baltimore for cash considerations a few days later.

Baltimore identified Sanders as a classic high strikeout/high walk reliever. His high 90s fastball and impressive slider led to plenty of whiffs, but Sanders struggled to locate pitches consistently. The Pirates bullpen woes have been a big story in Pittsburgh, but Sanders couldn’t hang with former Oriole Gregory Soto and Dennis Santana. Sanders still holds two minor-league options, but the Pirates declined to keep him on the 40-man roster.

The Orioles activated Sanders and immediately threw him to the fire. Sanders responded by picking up his first MLB win and first big league save in his first two appearances. Sanders recorded a pair of outs in Baltimore’s 3-2 win over Houston and closed out a wild 4-2 win in 11 innings the next day. His reward? The Orioles optioned Sanders and recalled third catcher Sam Huff.

Sanders had pitched on consecutive days, and the Orioles needed another catcher on the roster. The move said less about Sanders and more about the current state of the team. The Birds would summon Sanders back to Baltimore less than one month later.

The Birds recalled Sanders prior to the Minnesota series and used him right away. Trevor Rogers did not have his best stuff, and Craig Albernaz pulled the starter after only four innings. Sanders entered and kept the Orioles in the game with two scoreless innings. He allowed one hit, struck out one, and did not walk a batter. Sanders did not issue a walk in any of his three appearances for the Orioles.

Sanders averages just over 96 MPH with his four-seam fastball and sinker. His slider checks in just under 87 MPH. Opponents have hit just .143 off the fastball and .160 off his slider this season, but Sanders has yet to establish a third pitch. The sinker took the place of his sweeper from last year, and he’s mixed in a changeup against lefties, but neither pitch has yielded much success. There’s a place for relievers that only possess two legitimate pitches, but the Orioles would love to see Sanders develop a more reliable third option.

The Orioles kept Sanders around after he tossed two innings on Monday, and the team should give him an extended look down the stretch. Sanders joins a group of optionable relievers beyond this season that includes Anthony Nunez, Alex Hoppe, Yaramil Hiraldo, and Grant Wolfram. Yennier Cano will carry an option into 2027, but the team certainly hopes that the 32-year-old will remain with the big league club.

Cano’s age is a reminder that it can take relievers a few years to find their footing. Cano made it to the All-Star game during his rookie year at age 29. Sanders will turn 30 in December, but there’s little doubt that his best baseball is still ahead.